Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KILM 210536
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO NO-MENTIONABLE
LEVELS THROUGHOUT. EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS
ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT
DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR FRI AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR
US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING CALM WINDS ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. KCRE...THE OUTLIER...MAY
DROP TO 1/2SM IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING THU HRS. AFTER 1 TO
2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT...EXPECT IT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT GAINS IN
STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH SCT MID CLOUDS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEA
BREEZE ALONG THE COAST...WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SSW AOB12 KT WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES
CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT
BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL










000
FXUS62 KILM 210536
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO NO-MENTIONABLE
LEVELS THROUGHOUT. EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS
ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT
DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR FRI AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR
US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING CALM WINDS ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. KCRE...THE OUTLIER...MAY
DROP TO 1/2SM IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING THU HRS. AFTER 1 TO
2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT...EXPECT IT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT GAINS IN
STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH SCT MID CLOUDS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEA
BREEZE ALONG THE COAST...WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SSW AOB12 KT WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES
CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT
BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 210230
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO NO-MENTIONABLE
LEVELS THROUGHOUT. EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS
ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT
DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR FRI AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR
US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH NEARLY CALM
WINDS...ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AS A
RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST
WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS WILL SOON DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AND FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS INCREASING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT
BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ023-032-
     033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 202343
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
743 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION HAS FADED AREA-WIDE AND WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERS TO RE-INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN SPEED OF STORM AND SHOWER
DISSIPATION...MAY FURTHER REDUCE CHANCES TO NEAR NIL IN AN HOUR
OR SO. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS
ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT
DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR FRI AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR
US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH NEARLY CALM
WINDS...ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AS A
RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST
WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS WILL SOON DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AND FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS INCREASING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT
BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ023-032-
     033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 202343
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
743 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION HAS FADED AREA-WIDE AND WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERS TO RE-INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN SPEED OF STORM AND SHOWER
DISSIPATION...MAY FURTHER REDUCE CHANCES TO NEAR NIL IN AN HOUR
OR SO. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS
ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT
DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR FRI AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR
US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH NEARLY CALM
WINDS...ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AS A
RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST
WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS WILL SOON DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AND FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS INCREASING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT
BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ023-032-
     033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/BJR








000
FXUS62 KILM 202233
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
633 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION HAS FADED AREA-WIDE AND WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERS TO RE-INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN SPEED OF STORM AND SHOWER
DISSIPATION...MAY FURTHER REDUCE CHANCES TO NEAR NIL IN AN HOUR
OR SO. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS
ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT
DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR FRI AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR
US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
FIRE LATE...AROUND 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF IT WILL BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. WILL STICK
WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS HRRR AND THE WRF MODEL DO HAVE DECENT COVERAGE
THE THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY IFR
FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT
BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ023-032-
     033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 202233
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
633 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION HAS FADED AREA-WIDE AND WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERS TO RE-INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN SPEED OF STORM AND SHOWER
DISSIPATION...MAY FURTHER REDUCE CHANCES TO NEAR NIL IN AN HOUR
OR SO. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS
ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT
DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR FRI AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR
US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
FIRE LATE...AROUND 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF IT WILL BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. WILL STICK
WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS HRRR AND THE WRF MODEL DO HAVE DECENT COVERAGE
THE THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY IFR
FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT
BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ023-032-
     033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 201916
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WARM H5 TEMPS OF -5 TO -6 ARE SQUELCHING
THE PROPENSITY FOR TOWERS TO ASCEND VERY MUCH ABOVE 45000
FEET...BUT A SNAKE PIT OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM OUTFLOWS...A SEA
BREEZE LINE AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE
CELLS CLOSER TO SEVERE LIMITS IN ANY STRONG BOUNDARY COLLISION.

PWAT VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS NE SC/SE NC...ALONG WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS NEAR THE COAST AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT
IN VAPOR MOVIES. THESE FEATURES MAY SUSTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH
MUCH OF EVENING DESPITE A DIURNAL COOLING TREND AFTER DUSK. AT THE
SFC A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL RESIDE OVER INLAND ZONES AND
SOME DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE AS
WELL. LOCALIZED FLOODING APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH ANY COLLIDING BOUNDARIES COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS ONCE THE ENSUING UPDRAFT COLLAPSES.

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS
ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT
DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR FRI AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR
US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
FIRE LATE...AROUND 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF IT WILL BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. WILL STICK
WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS HRRR AND THE WRF MODEL DO HAVE DECENT COVERAGE
THE THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY IFR
FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE MARINE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX
OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9
SECONDS. STEERING WINDS COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING
IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE
VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT
BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ023-032-
     033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/BJR/MBB








000
FXUS62 KILM 201736
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM WEDNESDAY...UPDATED THE LAND FORECASTS TO INCREASE
POP VALUES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ORIENTATION OF A WIND
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALIGNED NEARLY ALONG THE PREVAILING STORM
MOTION IS LEADING TO TRAINING OF CELLS IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF INLAND NC. FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH EVENING DUE TO HIGH PWAT CONTENT AND POTENTIAL FOR
TORRENTIAL EPISODES OF RAINFALL. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 1.85 INCHES
REMAINS LOADED IN THE COLUMN CURRENTLY AS REVEALED IN 12Z RAOBS
DATA FROM MHX/CHS. THE POTENT UPPER SWIRL YESTERDAY THAT MOVED
OFFSHORE LAST NIGHT...PUSHED A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING. NO APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE IN
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE EXCEPT THAT DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST WHILE TAPERING INLAND AND A LIGHT W-NW WIND ACROSS
INLAND AREAS.

SIMILAR TO MON/TUE...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL ENSURE LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON IN A MOIST COLUMN. OF
SOME CONCERN IS THAT PROJECTED STEERING WINDS WILL CARRY
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR INTO A
ROBUST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW APPEARS POISED
TO KEEP THIS MARINE BOUNDARY FASTENED CLOSE TO THE COAST...WHILE
UPPER WINDS GUIDE ACTIVITY TO THE BEACHES AND COASTAL INTERIOR
LATER TODAY. VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IMPINGING THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PRESENTLY...WHICH TIMING-WISE IS
SET TO ENTER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS INTO OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEAT
BUILD-UP...LIKELY SPARKING STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

APPARENT TEMPS/HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 ACROSS NC AND 101-104 OVER
OUR SC INTERIOR LOCATIONS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
FIRE LATE...AROUND 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF IT WILL BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. WILL STICK
WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS HRRR AND THE WRF MODEL DO HAVE DECENT COVERAGE
THE THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY IFR
FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO NORTH OF
THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND SPEEDS 10
KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 5 TO
6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO GROUND SWELL AT 7+
SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...BACON
LONG TERM...BACON
AVIATION...DAVE/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 201736
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM WEDNESDAY...UPDATED THE LAND FORECASTS TO INCREASE
POP VALUES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ORIENTATION OF A WIND
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALIGNED NEARLY ALONG THE PREVAILING STORM
MOTION IS LEADING TO TRAINING OF CELLS IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF INLAND NC. FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH EVENING DUE TO HIGH PWAT CONTENT AND POTENTIAL FOR
TORRENTIAL EPISODES OF RAINFALL. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 1.85 INCHES
REMAINS LOADED IN THE COLUMN CURRENTLY AS REVEALED IN 12Z RAOBS
DATA FROM MHX/CHS. THE POTENT UPPER SWIRL YESTERDAY THAT MOVED
OFFSHORE LAST NIGHT...PUSHED A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING. NO APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE IN
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE EXCEPT THAT DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST WHILE TAPERING INLAND AND A LIGHT W-NW WIND ACROSS
INLAND AREAS.

SIMILAR TO MON/TUE...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL ENSURE LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON IN A MOIST COLUMN. OF
SOME CONCERN IS THAT PROJECTED STEERING WINDS WILL CARRY
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR INTO A
ROBUST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW APPEARS POISED
TO KEEP THIS MARINE BOUNDARY FASTENED CLOSE TO THE COAST...WHILE
UPPER WINDS GUIDE ACTIVITY TO THE BEACHES AND COASTAL INTERIOR
LATER TODAY. VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IMPINGING THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PRESENTLY...WHICH TIMING-WISE IS
SET TO ENTER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS INTO OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEAT
BUILD-UP...LIKELY SPARKING STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

APPARENT TEMPS/HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 ACROSS NC AND 101-104 OVER
OUR SC INTERIOR LOCATIONS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
FIRE LATE...AROUND 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF IT WILL BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. WILL STICK
WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS HRRR AND THE WRF MODEL DO HAVE DECENT COVERAGE
THE THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY IFR
FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO NORTH OF
THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND SPEEDS 10
KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 5 TO
6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO GROUND SWELL AT 7+
SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...BACON
LONG TERM...BACON
AVIATION...DAVE/8






000
FXUS62 KILM 201415
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1015 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT BETWEEN
1.75 AND 1.85 INCHES REMAINS LOADED IN THE COLUMN CURRENTLY AS
REVEALED IN 12Z RAOBS DATA FROM MHX/CHS. THE POTENT UPPER SWIRL
YESTERDAY THAT MOVED OFFSHORE LAST NIGHT...PUSHED A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING. NO APPRECIABLE AIR
MASS CHANGE IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE EXCEPT THAT DEWPOINTS REMAIN
HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST WHILE TAPERING INLAND AND A LIGHT W-NW
WIND ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

SIMILAR TO MON/TUE...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL ENSURE LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON IN A MOIST COLUMN. OF
SOME CONCERN IS THAT PROJECTED STEERING WINDS WILL CARRY
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR INTO A
ROBUST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW APPEARS POISED
TO KEEP THIS MARINE BOUNDARY FASTENED CLOSE TO THE COAST...WHILE
UPPER WINDS GUIDE ACTIVITY TO THE BEACHES AND COASTAL INTERIOR
LATER TODAY. VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IMPINGING THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PRESENTLY...WHICH TIMING-WISE IS
SET TO ENTER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS INTO OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEAT
BUILD-UP...LIKELY SPARKING STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

APPARENT TEMPS/HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 ACROSS NC AND 101-104 OVER
OUR SC INTERIOR LOCATIONS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS REALLY HIGH RIGHT NOW...SO EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FIRE LATE...AFTER 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF
IT WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND.
HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN RIGHT NOW...HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY DICTATE ONLY A
VCSH...WILL SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AROUND NOON OR SO. LIGHT
NORTHWEST GRADIENT THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEAK LOW OFF
THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
RESULTANT BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO NORTH OF
THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND SPEEDS 10
KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 5 TO
6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO GROUND SWELL AT 7+
SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...BACON
LONG TERM...BACON
AVIATION...DAVE








000
FXUS62 KILM 201050
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
650 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MID-LEVEL NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE
FA...WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THAT WILL AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY
AFTER TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX
TEMPS AFTER THIS PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
FA TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...
LOOKING AT 20-30 POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR
3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT.
PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS REALLY HIGH RIGHT NOW...SO EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FIRE LATE...AFTER 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF
IT WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND.
HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN RIGHT NOW...HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY DICTATE ONLY A
VCSH...WILL SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AROUND NOON OR SO. LIGHT
NORTHWEST GRADIENT THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEAK LOW OFF
THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
RESULTANT BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43










000
FXUS62 KILM 201050
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
650 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MID-LEVEL NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE
FA...WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THAT WILL AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY
AFTER TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX
TEMPS AFTER THIS PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
FA TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...
LOOKING AT 20-30 POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR
3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT.
PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS REALLY HIGH RIGHT NOW...SO EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FIRE LATE...AFTER 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF
IT WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND.
HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN RIGHT NOW...HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY DICTATE ONLY A
VCSH...WILL SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AROUND NOON OR SO. LIGHT
NORTHWEST GRADIENT THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEAK LOW OFF
THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
RESULTANT BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KILM 201024
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
624 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MID-LEVEL NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE
FA...WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THAT WILL AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY
AFTER TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX
TEMPS AFTER THIS PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
FA TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...
LOOKING AT 20-30 POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR
3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT.
PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 201024
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
624 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MID-LEVEL NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE
FA...WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THAT WILL AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY
AFTER TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX
TEMPS AFTER THIS PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
FA TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...
LOOKING AT 20-30 POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR
3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT.
PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 200828
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
428 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE FA...WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY
DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW FLOW...DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
APPALACHIANS...TO AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY AFTER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX TEMPS AFTER THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM ANY DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD.  OVERALL...LOOKING AT 20-30
POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS
ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT. PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 200828
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
428 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE FA...WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY
DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW FLOW...DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
APPALACHIANS...TO AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY AFTER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX TEMPS AFTER THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM ANY DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD.  OVERALL...LOOKING AT 20-30
POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS
ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT. PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 200817
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
417 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE FA...WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY
DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW FLOW...DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
APPALACHIANS...TO AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY AFTER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX TEMPS AFTER THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM ANY DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD.  OVERALL...LOOKING AT 20-30
POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS
ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT. PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 200817
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
417 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE FA...WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY
DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW FLOW...DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
APPALACHIANS...TO AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY AFTER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX TEMPS AFTER THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM ANY DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD.  OVERALL...LOOKING AT 20-30
POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS
ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT. PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 200744
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
336 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS NOW PASSED WELL
OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ODD
POP-UP SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...OTHERWISE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL











000
FXUS62 KILM 200744
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
336 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS NOW PASSED WELL
OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ODD
POP-UP SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...OTHERWISE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL










000
FXUS62 KILM 200606
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
206 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS NOW PASSED WELL
OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ODD
POP-UP SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...OTHERWISE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN TO MORE OF A TRUE
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR AREA. THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED
AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. WITH THIS
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
AND OR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM IN MY OPINION HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB WITH
THESE SYSTEMS. FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE WHEN THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COOLED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND I HAVE SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST. THURSDAYS
VALUES LOOK ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF VALUES THAT ECLIPSE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT THE LONGEVITY NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE MARGINAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY DAY WITH HIGHER MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHILE A TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS IN A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LEAVE A
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS H5 HEIGHTS
FALL AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GENERAL COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL AS YOU FACTOR IN CLOUDS AND PCP PRODUCED
BY IMPULSES RIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL WILL
EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP NW FLOW LIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES PRODUCING MORE OF AN ON SHORE FLOW LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AT THIS TIME AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AND
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS AN ELONGATED AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. A BRIEF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY IN
THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE. THE DIRECTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES OVER. BASICALLY WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES LATER THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE W
TO SW BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TRANSITION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SAT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT WITH AFTN CHOP IN SEA
BREEZE THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 2 TO 3 FT IN NORTHERLY
SURGE LATE SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF AN ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. THIS WILL
HELP TO PUSH SEAS UP AROUND 3 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KILM 200606
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
206 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS NOW PASSED WELL
OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ODD
POP-UP SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...OTHERWISE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN TO MORE OF A TRUE
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR AREA. THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED
AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. WITH THIS
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
AND OR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM IN MY OPINION HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB WITH
THESE SYSTEMS. FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE WHEN THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COOLED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND I HAVE SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST. THURSDAYS
VALUES LOOK ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF VALUES THAT ECLIPSE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT THE LONGEVITY NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE MARGINAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY DAY WITH HIGHER MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHILE A TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS IN A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LEAVE A
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS H5 HEIGHTS
FALL AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GENERAL COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL AS YOU FACTOR IN CLOUDS AND PCP PRODUCED
BY IMPULSES RIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL WILL
EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP NW FLOW LIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES PRODUCING MORE OF AN ON SHORE FLOW LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AT THIS TIME AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AND
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS AN ELONGATED AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. A BRIEF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY IN
THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE. THE DIRECTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES OVER. BASICALLY WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES LATER THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE W
TO SW BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TRANSITION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SAT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT WITH AFTN CHOP IN SEA
BREEZE THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 2 TO 3 FT IN NORTHERLY
SURGE LATE SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF AN ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. THIS WILL
HELP TO PUSH SEAS UP AROUND 3 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KILM 200217
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1017 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS NOW PASSED WELL
OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ODD
POP-UP SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...OTHERWISE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN TO MORE OF A TRUE
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR AREA. THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED
AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. WITH THIS
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
AND OR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM IN MY OPINION HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB WITH
THESE SYSTEMS. FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE WHEN THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COOLED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND I HAVE SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST. THURSDAYS
VALUES LOOK ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF VALUES THAT ECLIPSE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT THE LONGEVITY NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE MARGINAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY DAY WITH HIGHER MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHILE A TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS IN A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LEAVE A
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS H5 HEIGHTS
FALL AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GENERAL COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL AS YOU FACTOR IN CLOUDS AND PCP PRODUCED
BY IMPULSES RIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL WILL
EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP NW FLOW LIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES PRODUCING MORE OF AN ON SHORE FLOW LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AT THIS TIME AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AND
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO PATCH FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS TSRA AFFECTING THE KILM SITE ATTM...BUT
AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OFFSHORE...EXPECT REDUCED
RESTRICTIONS TO IMPROVE JUST BEFORE 00Z. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG DEVELOPMENT/LOW CIGS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY INLAND. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT WITH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS AN ELONGATED AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. A BRIEF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY IN
THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE. THE DIRECTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES OVER. BASICALLY WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES LATER THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE W
TO SW BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TRANSITION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SAT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT WITH AFTN CHOP IN SEA
BREEZE THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 2 TO 3 FT IN NORTHERLY
SURGE LATE SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF AN ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. THIS WILL
HELP TO PUSH SEAS UP AROUND 3 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ/SHK






000
FXUS62 KILM 200217
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1017 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS NOW PASSED WELL
OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ODD
POP-UP SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...OTHERWISE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN TO MORE OF A TRUE
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR AREA. THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED
AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. WITH THIS
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
AND OR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM IN MY OPINION HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB WITH
THESE SYSTEMS. FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE WHEN THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COOLED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND I HAVE SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST. THURSDAYS
VALUES LOOK ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF VALUES THAT ECLIPSE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT THE LONGEVITY NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE MARGINAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY DAY WITH HIGHER MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHILE A TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS IN A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LEAVE A
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS H5 HEIGHTS
FALL AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GENERAL COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL AS YOU FACTOR IN CLOUDS AND PCP PRODUCED
BY IMPULSES RIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL WILL
EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP NW FLOW LIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES PRODUCING MORE OF AN ON SHORE FLOW LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AT THIS TIME AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AND
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO PATCH FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS TSRA AFFECTING THE KILM SITE ATTM...BUT
AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OFFSHORE...EXPECT REDUCED
RESTRICTIONS TO IMPROVE JUST BEFORE 00Z. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG DEVELOPMENT/LOW CIGS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY INLAND. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT WITH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS AN ELONGATED AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. A BRIEF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY IN
THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE. THE DIRECTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES OVER. BASICALLY WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES LATER THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE W
TO SW BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TRANSITION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SAT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT WITH AFTN CHOP IN SEA
BREEZE THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 2 TO 3 FT IN NORTHERLY
SURGE LATE SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF AN ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. THIS WILL
HELP TO PUSH SEAS UP AROUND 3 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 192349
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
749 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL VERY NOTICEABLE
ON SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE IS
NOW LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION...AND WITH IT THE
REMAINDER OF OUR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS
MOVING NE ACROSS PENDER COUNTY WITH WEAKER CONVECTION MAINLY
CONFINED TO COASTAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT AS CLEARING
SKIES ON VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER TIME PRECIP EXIT. EXPECT A DRY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE NE
THIS EVENING. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN TO MORE OF A TRUE
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR AREA. THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED
AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. WITH THIS
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
AND OR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM IN MY OPINION HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB WITH
THESE SYSTEMS. FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE WHEN THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COOLED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND I HAVE SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST. THURSDAYS
VALUES LOOK ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF VALUES THAT ECLIPSE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT THE LONGEVITY NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE MARGINAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY DAY WITH HIGHER MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHILE A TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS IN A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LEAVE A
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS H5 HEIGHTS
FALL AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GENERAL COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL AS YOU FACTOR IN CLOUDS AND PCP PRODUCED
BY IMPULSES RIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL WILL
EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP NW FLOW LIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES PRODUCING MORE OF AN ON SHORE FLOW LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AT THIS TIME AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AND
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO PATCH FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS TSRA AFFECTING THE KILM SITE ATTM...BUT
AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OFFSHORE...EXPECT REDUCED
RESTRICTIONS TO IMPROVE JUST BEFORE 00Z. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG DEVELOPMENT/LOW CIGS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY INLAND. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT WITH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS AN ELONGATED AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. A BRIEF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY IN
THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE. THE DIRECTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES OVER. BASICALLY WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES LATER THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE W
TO SW BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TRANSITION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SAT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT WITH AFTN CHOP IN SEA
BREEZE THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 2 TO 3 FT IN NORTHERLY
SURGE LATE SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF AN ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. THIS WILL
HELP TO PUSH SEAS UP AROUND 3 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ/SHK








000
FXUS62 KILM 192349
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
749 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL VERY NOTICEABLE
ON SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE IS
NOW LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION...AND WITH IT THE
REMAINDER OF OUR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS
MOVING NE ACROSS PENDER COUNTY WITH WEAKER CONVECTION MAINLY
CONFINED TO COASTAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT AS CLEARING
SKIES ON VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER TIME PRECIP EXIT. EXPECT A DRY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE NE
THIS EVENING. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN TO MORE OF A TRUE
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR AREA. THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED
AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. WITH THIS
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
AND OR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM IN MY OPINION HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB WITH
THESE SYSTEMS. FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE WHEN THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COOLED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND I HAVE SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST. THURSDAYS
VALUES LOOK ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF VALUES THAT ECLIPSE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT THE LONGEVITY NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE MARGINAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY DAY WITH HIGHER MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHILE A TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS IN A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LEAVE A
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS H5 HEIGHTS
FALL AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GENERAL COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL AS YOU FACTOR IN CLOUDS AND PCP PRODUCED
BY IMPULSES RIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL WILL
EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP NW FLOW LIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES PRODUCING MORE OF AN ON SHORE FLOW LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AT THIS TIME AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AND
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO PATCH FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS TSRA AFFECTING THE KILM SITE ATTM...BUT
AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OFFSHORE...EXPECT REDUCED
RESTRICTIONS TO IMPROVE JUST BEFORE 00Z. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG DEVELOPMENT/LOW CIGS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY INLAND. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT WITH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS AN ELONGATED AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. A BRIEF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY IN
THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE. THE DIRECTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES OVER. BASICALLY WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES LATER THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE W
TO SW BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TRANSITION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SAT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT WITH AFTN CHOP IN SEA
BREEZE THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 2 TO 3 FT IN NORTHERLY
SURGE LATE SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF AN ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. THIS WILL
HELP TO PUSH SEAS UP AROUND 3 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ/SHK







000
FXUS62 KILM 192325
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
725 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL VERY NOTICEABLE
ON SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE IS
NOW LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION...AND WITH IT THE
REMAINDER OF OUR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS
MOVING NE ACROSS PENDER COUNTY WITH WEAKER CONVECTION MAINLY
CONFINED TO COASTAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT AS CLEARING
SKIES ON VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER TIME PRECIP EXIT. EXPECT A DRY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE NE
THIS EVENING. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN TO MORE OF A TRUE
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR AREA. THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED
AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. WITH THIS
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
AND OR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM IN MY OPINION HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB WITH
THESE SYSTEMS. FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE WHEN THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COOLED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND I HAVE SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST. THURSDAYS
VALUES LOOK ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF VALUES THAT ECLIPSE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT THE LONGEVITY NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE MARGINAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY DAY WITH HIGHER MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHILE A TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS IN A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LEAVE A
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS H5 HEIGHTS
FALL AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GENERAL COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL AS YOU FACTOR IN CLOUDS AND PCP PRODUCED
BY IMPULSES RIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL WILL
EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP NW FLOW LIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES PRODUCING MORE OF AN ON SHORE FLOW LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AT THIS TIME AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AND
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH REGARD TO THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOLID CAPES WILL BE
SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT COUPLED WITH A VORT MAX THAT
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 20-23Z WILL FIRE THINGS UP BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...IT`S ENHANCEMENT QUITE
NOTICEABLE LAST NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL ENSURE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR THINGS TO CALM DOWN BY
02-03Z. SOME FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...AS WELL AS A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE DRYING OUT A BIT
AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT AS PREVALENT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS AN ELONGATED AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. A BRIEF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY IN
THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE. THE DIRECTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES OVER. BASICALLY WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES LATER THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE W
TO SW BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TRANSITION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SAT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT WITH AFTN CHOP IN SEA
BREEZE THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 2 TO 3 FT IN NORTHERLY
SURGE LATE SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF AN ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. THIS WILL
HELP TO PUSH SEAS UP AROUND 3 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...99
MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ/SHK






000
FXUS62 KILM 192325
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
725 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL VERY NOTICEABLE
ON SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE IS
NOW LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION...AND WITH IT THE
REMAINDER OF OUR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS
MOVING NE ACROSS PENDER COUNTY WITH WEAKER CONVECTION MAINLY
CONFINED TO COASTAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT AS CLEARING
SKIES ON VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER TIME PRECIP EXIT. EXPECT A DRY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE NE
THIS EVENING. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN TO MORE OF A TRUE
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR AREA. THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED
AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. WITH THIS
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
AND OR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM IN MY OPINION HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB WITH
THESE SYSTEMS. FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE WHEN THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COOLED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND I HAVE SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST. THURSDAYS
VALUES LOOK ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF VALUES THAT ECLIPSE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT THE LONGEVITY NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE MARGINAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY DAY WITH HIGHER MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHILE A TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS IN A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LEAVE A
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS H5 HEIGHTS
FALL AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GENERAL COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL AS YOU FACTOR IN CLOUDS AND PCP PRODUCED
BY IMPULSES RIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL WILL
EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP NW FLOW LIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES PRODUCING MORE OF AN ON SHORE FLOW LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AT THIS TIME AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AND
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH REGARD TO THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOLID CAPES WILL BE
SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT COUPLED WITH A VORT MAX THAT
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 20-23Z WILL FIRE THINGS UP BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...IT`S ENHANCEMENT QUITE
NOTICEABLE LAST NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL ENSURE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR THINGS TO CALM DOWN BY
02-03Z. SOME FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...AS WELL AS A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE DRYING OUT A BIT
AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT AS PREVALENT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS AN ELONGATED AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. A BRIEF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY IN
THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE. THE DIRECTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES OVER. BASICALLY WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES LATER THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE W
TO SW BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TRANSITION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SAT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT WITH AFTN CHOP IN SEA
BREEZE THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 2 TO 3 FT IN NORTHERLY
SURGE LATE SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF AN ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. THIS WILL
HELP TO PUSH SEAS UP AROUND 3 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...99
MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 191923
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION IS EDGING WEST TO
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MIDDLE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION DUE TO POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS HINDERED THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION THUS FAR...BUT THIS CAPPING TENDENCY
WILL FURTHER ERODE INTO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THE MID-LEVEL SWIRL
IMPINGING OUR DEEP INLAND ZONES PRESENTLY WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING. ADDITIONAL
RISES IN SURFACE BASED CAPES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG
THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR...COULD PROVIDE ADDED FUEL TO
BOLSTER AND DEEPEN STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. THUS WE WILL RETAIN SCATTERED POP VALUES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A TREND TO THE EASTERN ZONES. MAIN THREAT
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND 3/4 INCH HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST.

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN TO MORE OF A TRUE
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR AREA. THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED
AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. WITH THIS
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
AND OR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM IN MY OPINION HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB WITH
THESE SYSTEMS. FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE WHEN THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COOLED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND I HAVE SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST. THURSDAYS
VALUES LOOK ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF VALUES THAT ECLIPSE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT THE LONGEVITY NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE MARGINAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY DAY WITH HIGHER MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHILE A TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS IN A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LEAVE A
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS H5 HEIGHTS
FALL AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GENERAL COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL AS YOU FACTOR IN CLOUDS AND PCP PRODUCED
BY IMPULSES RIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL WILL
EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP NW FLOW LIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES PRODUCING MORE OF AN ON SHORE FLOW LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AT THIS TIME AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AND
WARMER WEATHER.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH REGARD TO THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOLID CAPES WILL BE
SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT COUPLED WITH A VORT MAX THAT
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 20-23Z WILL FIRE THINGS UP BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...IT`S ENHANCEMENT QUITE
NOTICEABLE LAST NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL ENSURE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR THINGS TO CALM DOWN BY
02-03Z. SOME FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...AS WELL AS A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE DRYING OUT A BIT
AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT AS PREVALENT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO
WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND
BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE
WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD
BE EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS AN ELONGATED AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. A BRIEF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY IN
THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE. THE DIRECTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES OVER. BASICALLY WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES LATER THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE W
TO SW BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TRANSITION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SAT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT WITH AFTN CHOP IN SEA
BREEZE THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 2 TO 3 FT IN NORTHERLY
SURGE LATE SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF AN ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. THIS WILL
HELP TO PUSH SEAS UP AROUND 3 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 191923
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION IS EDGING WEST TO
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MIDDLE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION DUE TO POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS HINDERED THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION THUS FAR...BUT THIS CAPPING TENDENCY
WILL FURTHER ERODE INTO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THE MID-LEVEL SWIRL
IMPINGING OUR DEEP INLAND ZONES PRESENTLY WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING. ADDITIONAL
RISES IN SURFACE BASED CAPES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG
THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR...COULD PROVIDE ADDED FUEL TO
BOLSTER AND DEEPEN STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. THUS WE WILL RETAIN SCATTERED POP VALUES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A TREND TO THE EASTERN ZONES. MAIN THREAT
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND 3/4 INCH HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST.

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN TO MORE OF A TRUE
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR AREA. THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED
AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. WITH THIS
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
AND OR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM IN MY OPINION HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB WITH
THESE SYSTEMS. FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE WHEN THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COOLED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND I HAVE SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST. THURSDAYS
VALUES LOOK ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF VALUES THAT ECLIPSE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT THE LONGEVITY NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE MARGINAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY DAY WITH HIGHER MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHILE A TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS IN A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LEAVE A
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS H5 HEIGHTS
FALL AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GENERAL COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL AS YOU FACTOR IN CLOUDS AND PCP PRODUCED
BY IMPULSES RIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL WILL
EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP NW FLOW LIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES PRODUCING MORE OF AN ON SHORE FLOW LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AT THIS TIME AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AND
WARMER WEATHER.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH REGARD TO THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOLID CAPES WILL BE
SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT COUPLED WITH A VORT MAX THAT
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 20-23Z WILL FIRE THINGS UP BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...IT`S ENHANCEMENT QUITE
NOTICEABLE LAST NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL ENSURE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR THINGS TO CALM DOWN BY
02-03Z. SOME FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...AS WELL AS A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE DRYING OUT A BIT
AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT AS PREVALENT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO
WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND
BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE
WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD
BE EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS AN ELONGATED AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. A BRIEF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY IN
THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE. THE DIRECTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES OVER. BASICALLY WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES LATER THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE W
TO SW BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TRANSITION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SAT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT WITH AFTN CHOP IN SEA
BREEZE THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 2 TO 3 FT IN NORTHERLY
SURGE LATE SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF AN ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. THIS WILL
HELP TO PUSH SEAS UP AROUND 3 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 191736
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN
VAPOR ANIMATIONS THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING OUR INTERIOR ZONES
WEST OF I-95. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR LOCAL
WEATHER OVER SE NC AND NE SC AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD INTO PEAK
DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY A MODERATE MID-LEVEL
WIND FLOW WILL STEER STORMS TOWARD THE EAST AT 25 TO 30
MPH...UPPING THE ANTE FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...LIKE THE
68 MPH REPORTED AT THE TOPSAIL BEACH FIRE DEPT YESTERDAY EVENING.

SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS IMPULSE HAS ERODEED AND AGITATED
CUMULUS COVERS THE AREA. VISIBLE SPECTRUM CONFIRMS ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING IS LIKELY TO ELEVATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ENERGY.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND 1 INCH HAIL WITH
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 90-96 ACROSS THE INLAND FORECAST AREA
LOOKS ON TARGET...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES AND
IMMEDIATE ICW LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY STILL EXPECTED FOR THE
SHORT TERM...AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF N/NW WINDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL START WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
TEMPERATURES SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS BASICALLY THE
SAME AS AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 90S EVEN TO
THE BEACHES THANKS TO W/NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PINNING THE
SEA BREEZE. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
SIMPLY DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE...AND ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
STRONGLY DIURNALLY FORCED...AND THUS WILL WANE AFTER DARK...LEAVING
A WARM BUT CLEAR NIGHT WITH MINS ONLY IN THE MID 70S...UPR 70S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 90S LIKELY...WITH SOME LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES AND UPR
90S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
DEWPOINT VALUES WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY
THOUGH...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MIGRATES TO THE WEST...ALLOWING
FOR A TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND DIVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER...BUT LOWERING HEIGHTS THURSDAY EVE
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTN AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
INHERITED AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED...FALLING TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF
75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MS VLY AND BLOOM
NORTHEAST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DIVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
CREATES A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE TRANSITIONAL
PERIOD...FRI/SAT...LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP
WARRANTED AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO AN OTHERWISE HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY...AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER IMPULSES CRESTING THE TROUGH AND
RACING TOWARDS THE AREA ON NW FLOW...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
TEMPORALLY OR SPATIALLY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS...OTHER THAN
SUGGESTING A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH...LEAVING COOLER BUT DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH REGARD TO THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOLID CAPES WILL BE
SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT COUPLED WITH A VORT MAX THAT
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 20-23Z WILL FIRE THINGS UP BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...IT`S ENHANCEMENT QUITE
NOTICEABLE LAST NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL ENSURE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR THINGS TO CALM DOWN BY
02-03Z. SOME FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...AS WELL AS A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE DRYING OUT A BIT
AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT AS PREVALENT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...STALLED BOUNDARY LYING EAST-WEST...WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL YIELD SW-WSW WINDS AT 15 KT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY ADD AN
ADDITIONAL 5 KT AND/OR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT. WIND
DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEA
SPECTRUM WITH ESE 1-1.5 FT WAVES EVERY 9 SECOND.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF W/NW WINDS WILL START
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
TO A SW DIRECTION THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK HOWEVER...SO WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT FIRST THING WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
FALL TO 1-2 FT MOST OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH
THE HIGHER WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE WATERS
BY LATE FRIDAY...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT FROM S/SW AT 5-10 KTS...TO
N/NE AT 5-10 KTS...BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
FIRST ACROSS AMZ250...AND THEN DROP S/SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
BY SATURDAY MORNING ALL WATERS WILL BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT N/NE
WINDS. A SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP TO
10-15 KTS SATURDAY...REMAINING FROM THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS FRIDAY WILL
BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE...1-2 FT...BUT A CONFUSED SPECTRUM WILL DEVELOP
AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLOWLY ON SATURDAY TO 2-3
FT WITH A NE WIND CHOP BECOMING PREDOMINANT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL/8







000
FXUS62 KILM 191736
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN
VAPOR ANIMATIONS THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING OUR INTERIOR ZONES
WEST OF I-95. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR LOCAL
WEATHER OVER SE NC AND NE SC AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD INTO PEAK
DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY A MODERATE MID-LEVEL
WIND FLOW WILL STEER STORMS TOWARD THE EAST AT 25 TO 30
MPH...UPPING THE ANTE FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...LIKE THE
68 MPH REPORTED AT THE TOPSAIL BEACH FIRE DEPT YESTERDAY EVENING.

SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS IMPULSE HAS ERODEED AND AGITATED
CUMULUS COVERS THE AREA. VISIBLE SPECTRUM CONFIRMS ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING IS LIKELY TO ELEVATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ENERGY.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND 1 INCH HAIL WITH
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 90-96 ACROSS THE INLAND FORECAST AREA
LOOKS ON TARGET...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES AND
IMMEDIATE ICW LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY STILL EXPECTED FOR THE
SHORT TERM...AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF N/NW WINDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL START WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
TEMPERATURES SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS BASICALLY THE
SAME AS AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 90S EVEN TO
THE BEACHES THANKS TO W/NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PINNING THE
SEA BREEZE. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
SIMPLY DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE...AND ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
STRONGLY DIURNALLY FORCED...AND THUS WILL WANE AFTER DARK...LEAVING
A WARM BUT CLEAR NIGHT WITH MINS ONLY IN THE MID 70S...UPR 70S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 90S LIKELY...WITH SOME LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES AND UPR
90S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
DEWPOINT VALUES WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY
THOUGH...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MIGRATES TO THE WEST...ALLOWING
FOR A TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND DIVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER...BUT LOWERING HEIGHTS THURSDAY EVE
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTN AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
INHERITED AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED...FALLING TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF
75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MS VLY AND BLOOM
NORTHEAST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DIVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
CREATES A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE TRANSITIONAL
PERIOD...FRI/SAT...LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP
WARRANTED AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO AN OTHERWISE HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY...AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER IMPULSES CRESTING THE TROUGH AND
RACING TOWARDS THE AREA ON NW FLOW...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
TEMPORALLY OR SPATIALLY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS...OTHER THAN
SUGGESTING A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH...LEAVING COOLER BUT DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH REGARD TO THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOLID CAPES WILL BE
SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT COUPLED WITH A VORT MAX THAT
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 20-23Z WILL FIRE THINGS UP BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...IT`S ENHANCEMENT QUITE
NOTICEABLE LAST NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL ENSURE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR THINGS TO CALM DOWN BY
02-03Z. SOME FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...AS WELL AS A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE DRYING OUT A BIT
AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT AS PREVALENT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...STALLED BOUNDARY LYING EAST-WEST...WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL YIELD SW-WSW WINDS AT 15 KT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY ADD AN
ADDITIONAL 5 KT AND/OR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT. WIND
DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEA
SPECTRUM WITH ESE 1-1.5 FT WAVES EVERY 9 SECOND.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF W/NW WINDS WILL START
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
TO A SW DIRECTION THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK HOWEVER...SO WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT FIRST THING WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
FALL TO 1-2 FT MOST OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH
THE HIGHER WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE WATERS
BY LATE FRIDAY...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT FROM S/SW AT 5-10 KTS...TO
N/NE AT 5-10 KTS...BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
FIRST ACROSS AMZ250...AND THEN DROP S/SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
BY SATURDAY MORNING ALL WATERS WILL BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT N/NE
WINDS. A SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP TO
10-15 KTS SATURDAY...REMAINING FROM THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS FRIDAY WILL
BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE...1-2 FT...BUT A CONFUSED SPECTRUM WILL DEVELOP
AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLOWLY ON SATURDAY TO 2-3
FT WITH A NE WIND CHOP BECOMING PREDOMINANT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL/8






000
FXUS62 KILM 191347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
947 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN
VAPOR ANIMATIONS THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR LOCAL WEATHER OVER SE NC AND
NE SC AS THE UPPER FEATURE TRACKS EASTWARD INTO OUR DURING THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY A MODERATE
MID-LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL STEER STORMS TOWARD THE EAST AT 25 TO 30
MPH...UPPING THE ANTE FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...LIKE THE
68 MPH REPORTED AT THE TOPSAIL BEACH FIRE DEPT YESTERDAY EVENING.

SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS IMPULSE WILL ERODE INTO MIDDAY
LOWERING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VISIBLE SPECTRUM CONFIRMS NO LACK
OF SURFACE HEATING TO ELEVATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ENERGY. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND 1 INCH HAIL WITH STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 90-96 ACROSS THE INLAND FORECAST AREA
LOOKS ON TARGET...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES AND
IMMEDIATE ICW LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY STILL EXPECTED FOR THE
SHORT TERM...AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF N/NW WINDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL START WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
TEMPERATURES SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS BASICALLY THE
SAME AS AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 90S EVEN TO
THE BEACHES THANKS TO W/NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PINNING THE
SEA BREEZE. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
SIMPLY DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE...AND ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
STRONGLY DIURNALLY FORCED...AND THUS WILL WANE AFTER DARK...LEAVING
A WARM BUT CLEAR NIGHT WITH MINS ONLY IN THE MID 70S...UPR 70S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 90S LIKELY...WITH SOME LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES AND UPR
90S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
DEWPOINT VALUES WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY
THOUGH...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MIGRATES TO THE WEST...ALLOWING
FOR A TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND DIVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER...BUT LOWERING HEIGHTS THURSDAY EVE
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTN AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
INHERITED AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED...FALLING TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF
75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MS VLY AND BLOOM
NORTHEAST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DIVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
CREATES A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE TRANSITIONAL
PERIOD...FRI/SAT...LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP
WARRANTED AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO AN OTHERWISE HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY...AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER IMPULSES CRESTING THE TROUGH AND
RACING TOWARDS THE AREA ON NW FLOW...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
TEMPORALLY OR SPATIALLY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS...OTHER THAN
SUGGESTING A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH...LEAVING COOLER BUT DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH REGARD TO THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOLID CAPES WILL BE
SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT COUPLED WITH A VORT MAX THAT
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 22-23Z WILL FIRE THINGS UP
TOWARD EVENING. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...IT`S ENHANCEMENT QUITE NOTICEABLE
LAST NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL ENSURE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR THINGS TO CALM DOWN BY 02-03Z.
SOME FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...AS WELL AS A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL EXAMINE THOSE TWO SCENARIOS WITH THE
NEXT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...A STALLED BOUNDARY LYING EAST-WEST...WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL YIELD SW-WSW WINDS AT 15 KT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY ADD AN
ADDITIONAL 5 KT AND/OR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT. WIND
DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEA SPECTRUM
WITH ESE 1-1.5 FT WAVES EVERY 9 SECOND.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF W/NW WINDS WILL START
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
TO A SW DIRECTION THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK HOWEVER...SO WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT FIRST THING WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
FALL TO 1-2 FT MOST OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH
THE HIGHER WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE WATERS
BY LATE FRIDAY...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT FROM S/SW AT 5-10 KTS...TO
N/NE AT 5-10 KTS...BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
FIRST ACROSS AMZ250...AND THEN DROP S/SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
BY SATURDAY MORNING ALL WATERS WILL BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT N/NE
WINDS. A SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP TO
10-15 KTS SATURDAY...REMAINING FROM THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS FRIDAY WILL
BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE...1-2 FT...BUT A CONFUSED SPECTRUM WILL DEVELOP
AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLOWLY ON SATURDAY TO 2-3
FT WITH A NE WIND CHOP BECOMING PREDOMINANT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 191347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
947 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN
VAPOR ANIMATIONS THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR LOCAL WEATHER OVER SE NC AND
NE SC AS THE UPPER FEATURE TRACKS EASTWARD INTO OUR DURING THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY A MODERATE
MID-LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL STEER STORMS TOWARD THE EAST AT 25 TO 30
MPH...UPPING THE ANTE FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...LIKE THE
68 MPH REPORTED AT THE TOPSAIL BEACH FIRE DEPT YESTERDAY EVENING.

SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS IMPULSE WILL ERODE INTO MIDDAY
LOWERING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VISIBLE SPECTRUM CONFIRMS NO LACK
OF SURFACE HEATING TO ELEVATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ENERGY. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND 1 INCH HAIL WITH STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 90-96 ACROSS THE INLAND FORECAST AREA
LOOKS ON TARGET...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES AND
IMMEDIATE ICW LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY STILL EXPECTED FOR THE
SHORT TERM...AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF N/NW WINDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL START WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
TEMPERATURES SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS BASICALLY THE
SAME AS AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 90S EVEN TO
THE BEACHES THANKS TO W/NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PINNING THE
SEA BREEZE. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
SIMPLY DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE...AND ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
STRONGLY DIURNALLY FORCED...AND THUS WILL WANE AFTER DARK...LEAVING
A WARM BUT CLEAR NIGHT WITH MINS ONLY IN THE MID 70S...UPR 70S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 90S LIKELY...WITH SOME LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES AND UPR
90S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
DEWPOINT VALUES WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY
THOUGH...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MIGRATES TO THE WEST...ALLOWING
FOR A TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND DIVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER...BUT LOWERING HEIGHTS THURSDAY EVE
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTN AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
INHERITED AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED...FALLING TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF
75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MS VLY AND BLOOM
NORTHEAST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DIVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
CREATES A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE TRANSITIONAL
PERIOD...FRI/SAT...LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP
WARRANTED AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO AN OTHERWISE HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY...AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER IMPULSES CRESTING THE TROUGH AND
RACING TOWARDS THE AREA ON NW FLOW...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
TEMPORALLY OR SPATIALLY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS...OTHER THAN
SUGGESTING A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH...LEAVING COOLER BUT DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH REGARD TO THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOLID CAPES WILL BE
SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT COUPLED WITH A VORT MAX THAT
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 22-23Z WILL FIRE THINGS UP
TOWARD EVENING. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...IT`S ENHANCEMENT QUITE NOTICEABLE
LAST NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL ENSURE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR THINGS TO CALM DOWN BY 02-03Z.
SOME FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...AS WELL AS A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL EXAMINE THOSE TWO SCENARIOS WITH THE
NEXT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...A STALLED BOUNDARY LYING EAST-WEST...WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL YIELD SW-WSW WINDS AT 15 KT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY ADD AN
ADDITIONAL 5 KT AND/OR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT. WIND
DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEA SPECTRUM
WITH ESE 1-1.5 FT WAVES EVERY 9 SECOND.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF W/NW WINDS WILL START
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
TO A SW DIRECTION THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK HOWEVER...SO WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT FIRST THING WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
FALL TO 1-2 FT MOST OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH
THE HIGHER WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE WATERS
BY LATE FRIDAY...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT FROM S/SW AT 5-10 KTS...TO
N/NE AT 5-10 KTS...BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
FIRST ACROSS AMZ250...AND THEN DROP S/SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
BY SATURDAY MORNING ALL WATERS WILL BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT N/NE
WINDS. A SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP TO
10-15 KTS SATURDAY...REMAINING FROM THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS FRIDAY WILL
BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE...1-2 FT...BUT A CONFUSED SPECTRUM WILL DEVELOP
AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLOWLY ON SATURDAY TO 2-3
FT WITH A NE WIND CHOP BECOMING PREDOMINANT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 191046
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED BUT COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...A S/W MID-LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL EXIT OFF THE OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
LEFT BEHIND WILL AFFECT THE ILM CWA AND HOLD OFF ANY PCPN
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND MID-LEVEL S/W
TROF WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF THIS MORNING...AND
TRACK TO THE ENE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY LAST WELL INTO TONIGHT AND/OR
INTO THE PRE-DAWN WED HOURS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. ON THE
MESOSCALE...SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
MID-AFTERNOON HRS BEFORE FIRING UP. OVERALL...PREFER THE NAM
SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE MOVEMENT AND EFFECTS OF THE NEXT MID-
LEVEL S/W TROF POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THRU TONIGHT...AND A MODIFIED
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS EXTENDING WELL INTO TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS
ACROSS THE FA TODAY WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90 DEGREES FOR THE 3RD DAY
IN A ROW. COMBINED WITH PROGGED DEWPOINTS IN THE 70 TO 75
RANGE...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100
DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA...WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 103 DEGREES. FOR HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TO BE MET...HEAT INDICES MUST REACH 105 DEGREES OR
HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY STILL EXPECTED FOR THE
SHORT TERM...AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF N/NW WINDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL START WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
TEMPERATURES SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS BASICALLY THE
SAME AS AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 90S EVEN TO
THE BEACHES THANKS TO W/NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PINNING THE
SEA BREEZE. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
SIMPLY DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE...AND ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
STRONGLY DIURNALLY FORCED...AND THUS WILL WANE AFTER DARK...LEAVING
A WARM BUT CLEAR NIGHT WITH MINS ONLY IN THE MID 70S...UPR 70S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 90S LIKELY...WITH SOME LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES AND UPR
90S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
DEWPOINT VALUES WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY
THOUGH...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MIGRATES TO THE WEST...ALLOWING
FOR A TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND DIVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER...BUT LOWERING HEIGHTS THURSDAY EVE
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTN AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
INHERITED AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED...FALLING TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF
75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MS VLY AND BLOOM
NORTHEAST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DIVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
CREATES A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE TRANSITIONAL
PERIOD...FRI/SAT...LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP
WARRANTED AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO AN OTHERWISE HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY...AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER IMPULSES CRESTING THE TROUGH AND
RACING TOWARDS THE AREA ON NW FLOW...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
TEMPORALLY OR SPATIALLY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS...OTHER THAN
SUGGESTING A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH...LEAVING COOLER BUT DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH REGARD TO THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOLID CAPES WILL BE
SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT COUPLED WITH A VORT MAX THAT
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 22-23Z WILL FIRE THINGS UP
TOWARD EVENING. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...IT`S ENHANCEMENT QUITE NOTICEABLE
LAST NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL ENSURE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR THINGS TO CALM DOWN BY 02-03Z.
SOME FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...AS WELL AS A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL EXAMINE THOSE TWO SCENARIOS WITH THE
NEXT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...A STALLED BOUNDARY LYING EAST-WEST...WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL YIELD SW-WSW WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THRU OUT THIS
PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL 5 KT AND/OR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT
TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH VERY LITTLE INPUT
FROM THE ESE 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 FOOT GROUND SWELL.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF W/NW WINDS WILL START
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
TO A SW DIRECTION THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK HOWEVER...SO WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT FIRST THING WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
FALL TO 1-2 FT MOST OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH
THE HIGHER WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE WATERS
BY LATE FRIDAY...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT FROM S/SW AT 5-10 KTS...TO
N/NE AT 5-10 KTS...BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
FIRST ACROSS AMZ250...AND THEN DROP S/SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
BY SATURDAY MORNING ALL WATERS WILL BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT N/NE
WINDS. A SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP TO
10-15 KTS SATURDAY...REMAINING FROM THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS FRIDAY WILL
BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE...1-2 FT...BUT A CONFUSED SPECTRUM WILL DEVELOP
AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLOWLY ON SATURDAY TO 2-3
FT WITH A NE WIND CHOP BECOMING PREDOMINANT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KILM 191046
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED BUT COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...A S/W MID-LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL EXIT OFF THE OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
LEFT BEHIND WILL AFFECT THE ILM CWA AND HOLD OFF ANY PCPN
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND MID-LEVEL S/W
TROF WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF THIS MORNING...AND
TRACK TO THE ENE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY LAST WELL INTO TONIGHT AND/OR
INTO THE PRE-DAWN WED HOURS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. ON THE
MESOSCALE...SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
MID-AFTERNOON HRS BEFORE FIRING UP. OVERALL...PREFER THE NAM
SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE MOVEMENT AND EFFECTS OF THE NEXT MID-
LEVEL S/W TROF POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THRU TONIGHT...AND A MODIFIED
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS EXTENDING WELL INTO TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS
ACROSS THE FA TODAY WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90 DEGREES FOR THE 3RD DAY
IN A ROW. COMBINED WITH PROGGED DEWPOINTS IN THE 70 TO 75
RANGE...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100
DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA...WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 103 DEGREES. FOR HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TO BE MET...HEAT INDICES MUST REACH 105 DEGREES OR
HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY STILL EXPECTED FOR THE
SHORT TERM...AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF N/NW WINDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL START WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
TEMPERATURES SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS BASICALLY THE
SAME AS AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 90S EVEN TO
THE BEACHES THANKS TO W/NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PINNING THE
SEA BREEZE. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
SIMPLY DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE...AND ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
STRONGLY DIURNALLY FORCED...AND THUS WILL WANE AFTER DARK...LEAVING
A WARM BUT CLEAR NIGHT WITH MINS ONLY IN THE MID 70S...UPR 70S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 90S LIKELY...WITH SOME LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES AND UPR
90S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
DEWPOINT VALUES WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY
THOUGH...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MIGRATES TO THE WEST...ALLOWING
FOR A TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND DIVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER...BUT LOWERING HEIGHTS THURSDAY EVE
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTN AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
INHERITED AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED...FALLING TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF
75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MS VLY AND BLOOM
NORTHEAST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DIVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
CREATES A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE TRANSITIONAL
PERIOD...FRI/SAT...LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP
WARRANTED AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO AN OTHERWISE HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY...AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER IMPULSES CRESTING THE TROUGH AND
RACING TOWARDS THE AREA ON NW FLOW...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
TEMPORALLY OR SPATIALLY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS...OTHER THAN
SUGGESTING A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH...LEAVING COOLER BUT DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH REGARD TO THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOLID CAPES WILL BE
SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT COUPLED WITH A VORT MAX THAT
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 22-23Z WILL FIRE THINGS UP
TOWARD EVENING. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...IT`S ENHANCEMENT QUITE NOTICEABLE
LAST NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL ENSURE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR THINGS TO CALM DOWN BY 02-03Z.
SOME FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...AS WELL AS A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL EXAMINE THOSE TWO SCENARIOS WITH THE
NEXT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...A STALLED BOUNDARY LYING EAST-WEST...WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL YIELD SW-WSW WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THRU OUT THIS
PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL 5 KT AND/OR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT
TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH VERY LITTLE INPUT
FROM THE ESE 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 FOOT GROUND SWELL.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF W/NW WINDS WILL START
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
TO A SW DIRECTION THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK HOWEVER...SO WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT FIRST THING WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
FALL TO 1-2 FT MOST OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH
THE HIGHER WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE WATERS
BY LATE FRIDAY...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT FROM S/SW AT 5-10 KTS...TO
N/NE AT 5-10 KTS...BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
FIRST ACROSS AMZ250...AND THEN DROP S/SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
BY SATURDAY MORNING ALL WATERS WILL BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT N/NE
WINDS. A SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP TO
10-15 KTS SATURDAY...REMAINING FROM THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS FRIDAY WILL
BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE...1-2 FT...BUT A CONFUSED SPECTRUM WILL DEVELOP
AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLOWLY ON SATURDAY TO 2-3
FT WITH A NE WIND CHOP BECOMING PREDOMINANT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43












000
FXUS62 KILM 191023
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
623 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED BUT COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...A S/W MID-LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL EXIT OFF THE OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
LEFT BEHIND WILL AFFECT THE ILM CWA AND HOLD OFF ANY PCPN
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND MID-LEVEL S/W
TROF WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF THIS MORNING...AND
TRACK TO THE ENE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY LAST WELL INTO TONIGHT AND/OR
INTO THE PRE-DAWN WED HOURS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. ON THE
MESOSCALE...SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
MID-AFTERNOON HRS BEFORE FIRING UP. OVERALL...PREFER THE NAM
SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE MOVEMENT AND EFFECTS OF THE NEXT MID-
LEVEL S/W TROF POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THRU TONIGHT...AND A MODIFIED
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS EXTENDING WELL INTO TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS
ACROSS THE FA TODAY WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90 DEGREES FOR THE 3RD DAY
IN A ROW. COMBINED WITH PROGGED DEWPOINTS IN THE 70 TO 75
RANGE...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100
DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA...WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 103 DEGREES. FOR HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TO BE MET...HEAT INDICES MUST REACH 105 DEGREES OR
HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY STILL EXPECTED FOR THE
SHORT TERM...AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF N/NW WINDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL START WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
TEMPERATURES SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS BASICALLY THE
SAME AS AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 90S EVEN TO
THE BEACHES THANKS TO W/NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PINNING THE
SEA BREEZE. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
SIMPLY DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE...AND ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
STRONGLY DIURNALLY FORCED...AND THUS WILL WANE AFTER DARK...LEAVING
A WARM BUT CLEAR NIGHT WITH MINS ONLY IN THE MID 70S...UPR 70S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 90S LIKELY...WITH SOME LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES AND UPR
90S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
DEWPOINT VALUES WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY
THOUGH...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MIGRATES TO THE WEST...ALLOWING
FOR A TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND DIVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER...BUT LOWERING HEIGHTS THURSDAY EVE
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTN AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
INHERITED AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED...FALLING TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF
75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MS VLY AND BLOOM
NORTHEAST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DIVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
CREATES A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE TRANSITIONAL
PERIOD...FRI/SAT...LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP
WARRANTED AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO AN OTHERWISE HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY...AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER IMPULSES CRESTING THE TROUGH AND
RACING TOWARDS THE AREA ON NW FLOW...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
TEMPORALLY OR SPATIALLY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS...OTHER THAN
SUGGESTING A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH...LEAVING COOLER BUT DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE
INLAND TERMINALS WHERE WINDS DROP BELOW 3 KT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY.

VFR PREVAILS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING TO WSW 5 KT OR LESS.
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY TUE MORNING
HOURS BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED TEMPO
GROUPINGS ATTM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND TERMS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA TO POP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. DYNAMICS WITH AN
UPPER S/W TROF TO PASS ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH WILL FURTHER AID TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL INDICATE BEST TIME FOR
CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPINGS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 KT OR LESS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
8-13 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMS AFTER
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...A STALLED BOUNDARY LYING EAST-WEST...WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL YIELD SW-WSW WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THRU OUT THIS
PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL 5 KT AND/OR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT
TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH VERY LITTLE INPUT
FROM THE ESE 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 FOOT GROUND SWELL.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF W/NW WINDS WILL START
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
TO A SW DIRECTION THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK HOWEVER...SO WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT FIRST THING WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
FALL TO 1-2 FT MOST OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH
THE HIGHER WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE WATERS
BY LATE FRIDAY...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT FROM S/SW AT 5-10 KTS...TO
N/NE AT 5-10 KTS...BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
FIRST ACROSS AMZ250...AND THEN DROP S/SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
BY SATURDAY MORNING ALL WATERS WILL BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT N/NE
WINDS. A SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP TO
10-15 KTS SATURDAY...REMAINING FROM THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS FRIDAY WILL
BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE...1-2 FT...BUT A CONFUSED SPECTRUM WILL DEVELOP
AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLOWLY ON SATURDAY TO 2-3
FT WITH A NE WIND CHOP BECOMING PREDOMINANT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH







000
FXUS62 KILM 191023
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
623 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED BUT COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...A S/W MID-LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL EXIT OFF THE OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
LEFT BEHIND WILL AFFECT THE ILM CWA AND HOLD OFF ANY PCPN
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND MID-LEVEL S/W
TROF WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF THIS MORNING...AND
TRACK TO THE ENE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY LAST WELL INTO TONIGHT AND/OR
INTO THE PRE-DAWN WED HOURS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. ON THE
MESOSCALE...SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
MID-AFTERNOON HRS BEFORE FIRING UP. OVERALL...PREFER THE NAM
SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE MOVEMENT AND EFFECTS OF THE NEXT MID-
LEVEL S/W TROF POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THRU TONIGHT...AND A MODIFIED
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS EXTENDING WELL INTO TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS
ACROSS THE FA TODAY WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90 DEGREES FOR THE 3RD DAY
IN A ROW. COMBINED WITH PROGGED DEWPOINTS IN THE 70 TO 75
RANGE...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100
DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA...WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 103 DEGREES. FOR HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TO BE MET...HEAT INDICES MUST REACH 105 DEGREES OR
HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY STILL EXPECTED FOR THE
SHORT TERM...AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF N/NW WINDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL START WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
TEMPERATURES SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS BASICALLY THE
SAME AS AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 90S EVEN TO
THE BEACHES THANKS TO W/NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PINNING THE
SEA BREEZE. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
SIMPLY DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE...AND ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
STRONGLY DIURNALLY FORCED...AND THUS WILL WANE AFTER DARK...LEAVING
A WARM BUT CLEAR NIGHT WITH MINS ONLY IN THE MID 70S...UPR 70S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 90S LIKELY...WITH SOME LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES AND UPR
90S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
DEWPOINT VALUES WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY
THOUGH...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MIGRATES TO THE WEST...ALLOWING
FOR A TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND DIVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER...BUT LOWERING HEIGHTS THURSDAY EVE
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTN AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
INHERITED AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED...FALLING TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF
75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MS VLY AND BLOOM
NORTHEAST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DIVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
CREATES A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE TRANSITIONAL
PERIOD...FRI/SAT...LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP
WARRANTED AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO AN OTHERWISE HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY...AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER IMPULSES CRESTING THE TROUGH AND
RACING TOWARDS THE AREA ON NW FLOW...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
TEMPORALLY OR SPATIALLY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS...OTHER THAN
SUGGESTING A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH...LEAVING COOLER BUT DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE
INLAND TERMINALS WHERE WINDS DROP BELOW 3 KT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY.

VFR PREVAILS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING TO WSW 5 KT OR LESS.
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY TUE MORNING
HOURS BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED TEMPO
GROUPINGS ATTM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND TERMS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA TO POP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. DYNAMICS WITH AN
UPPER S/W TROF TO PASS ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH WILL FURTHER AID TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL INDICATE BEST TIME FOR
CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPINGS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 KT OR LESS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
8-13 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMS AFTER
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...A STALLED BOUNDARY LYING EAST-WEST...WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL YIELD SW-WSW WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THRU OUT THIS
PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL 5 KT AND/OR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT
TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH VERY LITTLE INPUT
FROM THE ESE 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 FOOT GROUND SWELL.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF W/NW WINDS WILL START
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
TO A SW DIRECTION THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK HOWEVER...SO WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT FIRST THING WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
FALL TO 1-2 FT MOST OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH
THE HIGHER WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE WATERS
BY LATE FRIDAY...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT FROM S/SW AT 5-10 KTS...TO
N/NE AT 5-10 KTS...BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
FIRST ACROSS AMZ250...AND THEN DROP S/SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
BY SATURDAY MORNING ALL WATERS WILL BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT N/NE
WINDS. A SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP TO
10-15 KTS SATURDAY...REMAINING FROM THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS FRIDAY WILL
BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE...1-2 FT...BUT A CONFUSED SPECTRUM WILL DEVELOP
AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLOWLY ON SATURDAY TO 2-3
FT WITH A NE WIND CHOP BECOMING PREDOMINANT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH








000
FXUS62 KILM 190831
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
431 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED BUT COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...A S/W MID-LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL EXIT OFF THE OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
LEFT BEHIND WILL AFFECT THE ILM CWA AND HOLD OFF ANY PCPN
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND MID-LEVEL S/W TROF WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF THIS MORNING...AND TRACK TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY LAST WELL INTO TONIGHT AND/OR INTO THE PRE-
DAWN WED HOURS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. ON THE MESOSCALE...SEA
BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MID-AFTERNOON
HRS BEFORE FIRING UP. OVERALL...PREFER THE NAM SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO THE MOVEMENT AND EFFECTS OF THE MID-LEVEL S/W TROF
ACROSS THE FA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS THRU TONIGHT...AND A MODIFIED NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS
EXTENDING WELL INTO TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE FA TODAY WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 90 DEGREES FOR THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW. COMBINED WITH
PROGGED DEWPOINTS IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA...WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 103
DEGREES. FOR HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TO BE MET...HEAT INDICES
MUST REACH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY STILL EXPECTED FOR THE
SHORT TERM...AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF N/NW WINDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL START WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
TEMPERATURES SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS BASICALLY THE
SAME AS AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 90S EVEN TO
THE BEACHES THANKS TO W/NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PINNING THE
SEA BREEZE. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
SIMPLY DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE...AND ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
STRONGLY DIURNALLY FORCED...AND THUS WILL WANE AFTER DARK...LEAVING
A WARM BUT CLEAR NIGHT WITH MINS ONLY IN THE MID 70S...UPR 70S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 90S LIKELY...WITH SOME LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES AND UPR
90S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
DEWPOINT VALUES WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY
THOUGH...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MIGRATES TO THE WEST...ALLOWING
FOR A TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND DIVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER...BUT LOWERING HEIGHTS THURSDAY EVE
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTN AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
INHERITED AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED...FALLING TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF
75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MS VLY AND BLOOM
NORTHEAST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DIVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
CREATES A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE TRANSITIONAL
PERIOD...FRI/SAT...LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP
WARRANTED AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO AN OTHERWISE HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY...AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER IMPULSES CRESTING THE TROUGH AND
RACING TOWARDS THE AREA ON NW FLOW...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
TEMPORALLY OR SPATIALLY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS...OTHER THAN
SUGGESTING A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH...LEAVING COOLER BUT DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE
INLAND TERMINALS WHERE WINDS DROP BELOW 3 KT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY.

VFR PREVAILS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING TO WSW 5 KT OR LESS.
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY TUE MORNING
HOURS BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED TEMPO
GROUPINGS ATTM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND TERMS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA TO POP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. DYNAMICS WITH AN
UPPER S/W TROF TO PASS ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH WILL FURTHER AID TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL INDICATE BEST TIME FOR
CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPINGS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 KT OR LESS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
8-13 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMS AFTER
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...A STALLED BOUNDARY LYING EAST-WEST...WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL YIELD SW-WSW WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THRU OUT THIS
PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL 5 KT AND/OR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT
TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH VERY LITTLE INPUT
FROM THE ESE 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 FOOT GROUND SWELL.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF W/NW WINDS WILL START
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
TO A SW DIRECTION THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK HOWEVER...SO WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT FIRST THING WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
FALL TO 1-2 FT MOST OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH
THE HIGHER WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE WATERS
BY LATE FRIDAY...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT FROM S/SW AT 5-10 KTS...TO
N/NE AT 5-10 KTS...BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
FIRST ACROSS AMZ250...AND THEN DROP S/SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
BY SATURDAY MORNING ALL WATERS WILL BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT N/NE
WINDS. A SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP TO
10-15 KTS SATURDAY...REMAINING FROM THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS FRIDAY WILL
BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE...1-2 FT...BUT A CONFUSED SPECTRUM WILL DEVELOP
AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLOWLY ON SATURDAY TO 2-3
FT WITH A NE WIND CHOP BECOMING PREDOMINANT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 190831
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
431 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED BUT COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...A S/W MID-LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL EXIT OFF THE OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
LEFT BEHIND WILL AFFECT THE ILM CWA AND HOLD OFF ANY PCPN
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND MID-LEVEL S/W TROF WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF THIS MORNING...AND TRACK TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY LAST WELL INTO TONIGHT AND/OR INTO THE PRE-
DAWN WED HOURS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. ON THE MESOSCALE...SEA
BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MID-AFTERNOON
HRS BEFORE FIRING UP. OVERALL...PREFER THE NAM SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO THE MOVEMENT AND EFFECTS OF THE MID-LEVEL S/W TROF
ACROSS THE FA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS THRU TONIGHT...AND A MODIFIED NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS
EXTENDING WELL INTO TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE FA TODAY WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 90 DEGREES FOR THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW. COMBINED WITH
PROGGED DEWPOINTS IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA...WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 103
DEGREES. FOR HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TO BE MET...HEAT INDICES
MUST REACH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY STILL EXPECTED FOR THE
SHORT TERM...AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF N/NW WINDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL START WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
TEMPERATURES SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS BASICALLY THE
SAME AS AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 90S EVEN TO
THE BEACHES THANKS TO W/NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PINNING THE
SEA BREEZE. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
SIMPLY DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE...AND ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
STRONGLY DIURNALLY FORCED...AND THUS WILL WANE AFTER DARK...LEAVING
A WARM BUT CLEAR NIGHT WITH MINS ONLY IN THE MID 70S...UPR 70S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 90S LIKELY...WITH SOME LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES AND UPR
90S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
DEWPOINT VALUES WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY
THOUGH...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MIGRATES TO THE WEST...ALLOWING
FOR A TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND DIVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER...BUT LOWERING HEIGHTS THURSDAY EVE
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTN AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
INHERITED AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED...FALLING TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF
75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MS VLY AND BLOOM
NORTHEAST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DIVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
CREATES A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE TRANSITIONAL
PERIOD...FRI/SAT...LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP
WARRANTED AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO AN OTHERWISE HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY...AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER IMPULSES CRESTING THE TROUGH AND
RACING TOWARDS THE AREA ON NW FLOW...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
TEMPORALLY OR SPATIALLY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS...OTHER THAN
SUGGESTING A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH...LEAVING COOLER BUT DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE
INLAND TERMINALS WHERE WINDS DROP BELOW 3 KT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY.

VFR PREVAILS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING TO WSW 5 KT OR LESS.
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY TUE MORNING
HOURS BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED TEMPO
GROUPINGS ATTM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND TERMS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA TO POP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. DYNAMICS WITH AN
UPPER S/W TROF TO PASS ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH WILL FURTHER AID TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL INDICATE BEST TIME FOR
CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPINGS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 KT OR LESS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
8-13 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMS AFTER
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...A STALLED BOUNDARY LYING EAST-WEST...WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL YIELD SW-WSW WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THRU OUT THIS
PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL 5 KT AND/OR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT
TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH VERY LITTLE INPUT
FROM THE ESE 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 FOOT GROUND SWELL.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF W/NW WINDS WILL START
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
TO A SW DIRECTION THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK HOWEVER...SO WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT FIRST THING WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
FALL TO 1-2 FT MOST OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH
THE HIGHER WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE WATERS
BY LATE FRIDAY...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT FROM S/SW AT 5-10 KTS...TO
N/NE AT 5-10 KTS...BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
FIRST ACROSS AMZ250...AND THEN DROP S/SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
BY SATURDAY MORNING ALL WATERS WILL BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT N/NE
WINDS. A SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP TO
10-15 KTS SATURDAY...REMAINING FROM THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS FRIDAY WILL
BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE...1-2 FT...BUT A CONFUSED SPECTRUM WILL DEVELOP
AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLOWLY ON SATURDAY TO 2-3
FT WITH A NE WIND CHOP BECOMING PREDOMINANT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH






000
FXUS62 KILM 190738
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
338 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED BUT COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM MONDAY...MOST CONVECTION HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH WE MAY GET THE TAIL END OF A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS CUMBERLAND AND SAMPSON
COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONVECTION CHANCES TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWS:

UPPER RIDGE REMNANTS OVER THE AREA ALBEIT FLATTENED BY PASSING
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY...HAS ALLOWED POOR MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA. A STRONG MCV FEATURE WAS AIDING IN
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NE NC AND SE VA. ANOTHER IMPULSE
HEADING INTO WESTERN SC WAS SETTING OFF SCATTERED TSTMS FROM FAR
AUGUSTA GA TO COLUMBIA SC TO MARLBORO COUNTY SC. STEERING FLOW
WILL GUIDE CONVECTION FROM WSW TO ENE AT 25 TO 30 MPH. SEVERAL OF
THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHERE AN AWAITING
AND PARTIALLY PINNED SEA BREEZE COULD POTENTIALLY PULSE ECHO TOPS TO
HIGHER REACHES...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG
OUR COASTAL INTERIOR IN LATE AFTN THROUGH MID-EVENING.

TEPID OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BARELY FALL BELOW 80 NEAR THE
COAST WITH MODERATE SW WINDS AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
AND ALSO THE ELEVATED MAXIMUMS WE SAW TODAY. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN RAPID FASHION.
MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY ESSENTIALLY 77-80 NEAR THE COAST AND
MIDDLE 70S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS NEAR THE BEACHES 81-83 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY STILL EXPECTED FOR THE
SHORT TERM...AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF N/NW WINDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL START WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
TEMPERATURES SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS BASICALLY THE
SAME AS AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 90S EVEN TO
THE BEACHES THANKS TO W/NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PINNING THE
SEA BREEZE. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
SIMPLY DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE...AND ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
STRONGLY DIURNALLY FORCED...AND THUS WILL WANE AFTER DARK...LEAVING
A WARM BUT CLEAR NIGHT WITH MINS ONLY IN THE MID 70S...UPR 70S AT
THE BEACHES.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 90S LIKELY...WITH SOME LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES AND UPR
90S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
DEWPOINT VALUES WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY
THOUGH...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MIGRATES TO THE WEST...ALLOWING
FOR A TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND DIVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER...BUT LOWERING HEIGHTS THURSDAY EVE
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTN AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS AGREES WELL WITH
INHERITED AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED...FALLING TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF
75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MS VLY AND BLOOM
NORTHEAST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DIVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
CREATES A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE TRANSITIONAL
PERIOD...FRI/SAT...LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP
WARRANTED AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO AN OTHERWISE HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY...AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER IMPULSES CRESTING THE TROUGH AND
RACING TOWARDS THE AREA ON NW FLOW...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
TEMPORALLY OR SPATIALLY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS...OTHER THAN
SUGGESTING A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH...LEAVING COOLER BUT DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE
INLAND TERMINALS WHERE WINDS DROP BELOW 3 KT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY.

VFR PREVAILS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING TO WSW 5 KT OR LESS.
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY TUE MORNING
HOURS BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED TEMPO
GROUPINGS ATTM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND TERMS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA TO POP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. DYNAMICS WITH AN
UPPER S/W TROF TO PASS ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH WILL FURTHER AID TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL INDICATE BEST TIME FOR
CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPINGS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 KT OR LESS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
8-13 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMS AFTER
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM MONDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
AMZ256 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AS SEAS HAVE PICKED UP INTO
THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS AT
THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ARE FOUND CLOSEST TO THE COAST DUE TO
A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF W/NW WINDS WILL START
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY RETURN
TO A SW DIRECTION THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK HOWEVER...SO WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT FIRST THING WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
FALL TO 1-2 FT MOST OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH
THE HIGHER WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE WATERS
BY LATE FRIDAY...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT FROM S/SW AT 5-10 KTS...TO
N/NE AT 5-10 KTS...BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
FIRST ACROSS AMZ250...AND THEN DROP S/SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
BY SATURDAY MORNING ALL WATERS WILL BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT N/NE
WINDS. A SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP TO
10-15 KTS SATURDAY...REMAINING FROM THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS FRIDAY WILL
BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE...1-2 FT...BUT A CONFUSED SPECTRUM WILL DEVELOP
AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLOWLY ON SATURDAY TO 2-3
FT WITH A NE WIND CHOP BECOMING PREDOMINANT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/REK/JDW











000
FXUS62 KILM 190551
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD TAKE SOME EDGE OFF THE HEAT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM MONDAY...MOST CONVECTION HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH WE MAY GET THE TAIL END OF A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS CUMBERLAND AND SAMPSON
COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONVECTION CHANCES TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWS:

UPPER RIDGE REMNANTS OVER THE AREA ALBEIT FLATTENED BY PASSING
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY...HAS ALLOWED POOR MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA. A STRONG MCV FEATURE WAS AIDING IN
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NE NC AND SE VA. ANOTHER IMPULSE
HEADING INTO WESTERN SC WAS SETTING OFF SCATTERED TSTMS FROM FAR
AUGUSTA GA TO COLUMBIA SC TO MARLBORO COUNTY SC. STEERING FLOW
WILL GUIDE CONVECTION FROM WSW TO ENE AT 25 TO 30 MPH. SEVERAL OF
THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHERE AN AWAITING
AND PARTIALLY PINNED SEA BREEZE COULD POTENTIALLY PULSE ECHO TOPS TO
HIGHER REACHES...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG
OUR COASTAL INTERIOR IN LATE AFTN THROUGH MID-EVENING.

TEPID OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BARELY FALL BELOW 80 NEAR THE
COAST WITH MODERATE SW WINDS AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
AND ALSO THE ELEVATED MAXIMUMS WE SAW TODAY. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN RAPID FASHION.
MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY ESSENTIALLY 77-80 NEAR THE COAST AND
MIDDLE 70S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS NEAR THE BEACHES 81-83 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR
ONE MORE DAY OR TWO DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU PREFER. THE ZONAL
FLOW AT THE BASE OF A SUBTLE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL BE THE
CULPRIT. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT MAX HEATING AS DOES THE NAM. I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ROBUST POPS FOR THIS TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH
MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MORE DERIVED
FROM THE SEA BREEZE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. I
INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE KNOWING IT WONT TAKE MUCH OF A CATALYST FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT AND NO
CHANGES WERE WARRANTED. READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT A FULL CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH NW FLOW LOCALLY. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW AND HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EMBEDDED
THEREIN, WHICH WILL MODIFY OUR PRECIP CHANCES. THE CMC ACTUALLY
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE
LATTER KEEPS ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES JUST NORTH OF HERE WHILE THE
GFS HAS LOWERING HEIGHTS IN A VORTICITY-LADEN FLOW. WILL PAINT
HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN ZONES BUT ALLOW FOR ISO COVERAGE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND/OR HEATING LEADING TO
PARCELS AUTO-CONVECTING TO THE LFC/LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY TURN ACTIVE AS DEEPENING TROUGINESS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. HOW
MUCH THIS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES WILL AFFECT HOW UNSETTLED THE
WEEKEND STAYS. THE GFS AGAIN IS A RATHER STRONG OUTLIER WHEREAS THE
CMC AND ECWMF KEEP THE FRONT CLOSER ON SATURDAY FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE FRONT
DRIVEN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR LESS ACTIVE RADAR DAYS AND PERHAPS SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE
INLAND TERMINALS WHERE WINDS DROP BELOW 3 KT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY.

VFR PREVAILS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING TO WSW 5 KT OR LESS.
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY TUE MORNING
HOURS BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED TEMPO
GROUPINGS ATTM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND TERMS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA TO POP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. DYNAMICS WITH AN
UPPER S/W TROF TO PASS ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH WILL FURTHER AID TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL INDICATE BEST TIME FOR
CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPINGS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 KT OR LESS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
8-13 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMS AFTER
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM MONDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
AMZ256 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AS SEAS HAVE PICKED UP INTO
THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS AT
THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ARE FOUND CLOSEST TO THE COAST DUE TO
A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONGER
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND 15-20 ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY...SPEEDS DIMINISH MARKEDLY TO TEN KNOTS
OR LESS. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO MUCH OF A DECREASE AND SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS MAY WANT TO INCREASE THE SPEEDS. SWAN WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS
3-5 FEET FOR SEAS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND 1-3 FEET
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY`S SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT
ON ACCOUNT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH KEEPING THE GRADIENT FAIRLY RELAXED.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BRINGING CONSIDERABLE VEERING
ESPECIALLY OVER NRN ZONES WHILE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA BY SATURDAY
MEANING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAPPED AT 10 KTS...NO SURGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO AT
MOST 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 190551
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD TAKE SOME EDGE OFF THE HEAT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM MONDAY...MOST CONVECTION HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH WE MAY GET THE TAIL END OF A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS CUMBERLAND AND SAMPSON
COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONVECTION CHANCES TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWS:

UPPER RIDGE REMNANTS OVER THE AREA ALBEIT FLATTENED BY PASSING
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY...HAS ALLOWED POOR MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA. A STRONG MCV FEATURE WAS AIDING IN
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NE NC AND SE VA. ANOTHER IMPULSE
HEADING INTO WESTERN SC WAS SETTING OFF SCATTERED TSTMS FROM FAR
AUGUSTA GA TO COLUMBIA SC TO MARLBORO COUNTY SC. STEERING FLOW
WILL GUIDE CONVECTION FROM WSW TO ENE AT 25 TO 30 MPH. SEVERAL OF
THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHERE AN AWAITING
AND PARTIALLY PINNED SEA BREEZE COULD POTENTIALLY PULSE ECHO TOPS TO
HIGHER REACHES...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG
OUR COASTAL INTERIOR IN LATE AFTN THROUGH MID-EVENING.

TEPID OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BARELY FALL BELOW 80 NEAR THE
COAST WITH MODERATE SW WINDS AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
AND ALSO THE ELEVATED MAXIMUMS WE SAW TODAY. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN RAPID FASHION.
MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY ESSENTIALLY 77-80 NEAR THE COAST AND
MIDDLE 70S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS NEAR THE BEACHES 81-83 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR
ONE MORE DAY OR TWO DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU PREFER. THE ZONAL
FLOW AT THE BASE OF A SUBTLE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL BE THE
CULPRIT. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT MAX HEATING AS DOES THE NAM. I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ROBUST POPS FOR THIS TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH
MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MORE DERIVED
FROM THE SEA BREEZE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. I
INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE KNOWING IT WONT TAKE MUCH OF A CATALYST FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT AND NO
CHANGES WERE WARRANTED. READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT A FULL CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH NW FLOW LOCALLY. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW AND HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EMBEDDED
THEREIN, WHICH WILL MODIFY OUR PRECIP CHANCES. THE CMC ACTUALLY
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE
LATTER KEEPS ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES JUST NORTH OF HERE WHILE THE
GFS HAS LOWERING HEIGHTS IN A VORTICITY-LADEN FLOW. WILL PAINT
HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN ZONES BUT ALLOW FOR ISO COVERAGE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND/OR HEATING LEADING TO
PARCELS AUTO-CONVECTING TO THE LFC/LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY TURN ACTIVE AS DEEPENING TROUGINESS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. HOW
MUCH THIS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES WILL AFFECT HOW UNSETTLED THE
WEEKEND STAYS. THE GFS AGAIN IS A RATHER STRONG OUTLIER WHEREAS THE
CMC AND ECWMF KEEP THE FRONT CLOSER ON SATURDAY FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE FRONT
DRIVEN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR LESS ACTIVE RADAR DAYS AND PERHAPS SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE
INLAND TERMINALS WHERE WINDS DROP BELOW 3 KT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY.

VFR PREVAILS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING TO WSW 5 KT OR LESS.
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY TUE MORNING
HOURS BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED TEMPO
GROUPINGS ATTM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND TERMS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA TO POP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. DYNAMICS WITH AN
UPPER S/W TROF TO PASS ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH WILL FURTHER AID TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL INDICATE BEST TIME FOR
CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPINGS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 KT OR LESS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
8-13 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMS AFTER
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM MONDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
AMZ256 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AS SEAS HAVE PICKED UP INTO
THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS AT
THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ARE FOUND CLOSEST TO THE COAST DUE TO
A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONGER
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND 15-20 ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY...SPEEDS DIMINISH MARKEDLY TO TEN KNOTS
OR LESS. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO MUCH OF A DECREASE AND SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS MAY WANT TO INCREASE THE SPEEDS. SWAN WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS
3-5 FEET FOR SEAS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND 1-3 FEET
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY`S SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT
ON ACCOUNT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH KEEPING THE GRADIENT FAIRLY RELAXED.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BRINGING CONSIDERABLE VEERING
ESPECIALLY OVER NRN ZONES WHILE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA BY SATURDAY
MEANING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAPPED AT 10 KTS...NO SURGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO AT
MOST 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL










000
FXUS62 KILM 190219
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD TAKE SOME EDGE OFF THE HEAT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM MONDAY...MOST CONVECTION HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH WE MAY GET THE TAIL END OF A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS CUMBERLAND AND SAMPSON
COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONVECTION CHANCES TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWS:

UPPER RIDGE REMNANTS OVER THE AREA ALBEIT FLATTENED BY PASSING
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY...HAS ALLOWED POOR MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA. A STRONG MCV FEATURE WAS AIDING IN
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NE NC AND SE VA. ANOTHER IMPULSE
HEADING INTO WESTERN SC WAS SETTING OFF SCATTERED TSTMS FROM FAR
AUGUSTA GA TO COLUMBIA SC TO MARLBORO COUNTY SC. STEERING FLOW
WILL GUIDE CONVECTION FROM WSW TO ENE AT 25 TO 30 MPH. SEVERAL OF
THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHERE AN AWAITING
AND PARTIALLY PINNED SEA BRZ COULD POTENTIALLY PULSE ECHO TOPS TO
HIGHER REACHES...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG
OUR COASTAL INTERIOR IN LATE AFTN THROUGH MID-EVENING.

TEPID OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BARELY FALL BELOW 80 NEAR THE
COAST WITH MODERATE SW WINDS AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
AND ALSO THE ELEVATED MAXIMUMS WE SAW TODAY. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN RAPID FASHION.
MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY ESSENTIALLY 77-80 NEAR THE COAST AND
MIDDLE 70S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS NEAR THE BEACHES 81-83 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR
ONE MORE DAY OR TWO DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU PREFER. THE ZONAL
FLOW AT THE BASE OF A SUBTLE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL BE THE
CULPRIT. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT MAX HEATING AS DOES THE NAM. I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ROBUST POPS FOR THIS TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH
MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MORE DERIVED
FROM THE SEA BREEZE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. I
INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE KNOWING IT WONT TAKE MUCH OF A CATALYST FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT AND NO
CHANGES WERE WARRANTED. READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT A FULL CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH NW FLOW LOCALLY. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW AND HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EMBEDDED
THEREIN, WHICH WILL MODIFY OUR PRECIP CHANCES. THE CMC ACTUALLY
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE
LATTER KEEPS ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES JUST NORTH OF HERE WHILE THE
GFS HAS LOWERING HEIGHTS IN A VORTICITY-LADEN FLOW. WILL PAINT
HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN ZONES BUT ALLOW FOR ISO COVERAGE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND/OR HEATING LEADING TO
PARCELS AUTO-CONVECTING TO THE LFC/LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY TURN ACTIVE AS DEEPENING TROUGINESS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. HOW
MUCH THIS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES WILL AFFECT HOW UNSETTLED THE
WEEKEND STAYS. THE GFS AGAIN IS A RATHER STRONG OUTLIER WHEREAS THE
CMC AND ECWMF KEEP THE FRONT CLOSER ON SATURDAY FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE FRONT
DRIVEN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR LESS ACTIVE RADAR DAYS AND PERHAPS SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH AFTN SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 12 KTS. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED TSRA MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ITS POSSIBLE THAT ANY OF THE THESE COULD AFFECT THE
SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THUS POSSIBLY CREATING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AND
VFR WILL PERSIST WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. INLAND
SITES COULD POTENTIALLY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED TEMPO ATTM. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 12
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM MONDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
AMZ256 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AS SEAS HAVE PICKED UP INTO
THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS AT
THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ARE FOUND CLOSEST TO THE COAST DUE TO
A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONGER
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND 15-20 ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY...SPEEDS DIMINISH MARKEDLY TO TEN KNOTS
OR LESS. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO MUCH OF A DECREASE AND SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS MAY WANT TO INCREASE THE SPEEDS. SWAN WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS
3-5 FEET FOR SEAS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND 1-3 FEET
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY`S SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT
ON ACCOUNT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH KEEPING THE GRADIENT FAIRLY RELAXED.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BRINGING CONSIDERABLE VEERING
ESPECIALLY OVER NRN ZONES WHILE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA BY SATURDAY
MEANING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAPPED AT 10 KTS...NO SURGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO AT
MOST 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 190219
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD TAKE SOME EDGE OFF THE HEAT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM MONDAY...MOST CONVECTION HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH WE MAY GET THE TAIL END OF A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS CUMBERLAND AND SAMPSON
COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONVECTION CHANCES TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWS:

UPPER RIDGE REMNANTS OVER THE AREA ALBEIT FLATTENED BY PASSING
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY...HAS ALLOWED POOR MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA. A STRONG MCV FEATURE WAS AIDING IN
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NE NC AND SE VA. ANOTHER IMPULSE
HEADING INTO WESTERN SC WAS SETTING OFF SCATTERED TSTMS FROM FAR
AUGUSTA GA TO COLUMBIA SC TO MARLBORO COUNTY SC. STEERING FLOW
WILL GUIDE CONVECTION FROM WSW TO ENE AT 25 TO 30 MPH. SEVERAL OF
THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHERE AN AWAITING
AND PARTIALLY PINNED SEA BRZ COULD POTENTIALLY PULSE ECHO TOPS TO
HIGHER REACHES...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG
OUR COASTAL INTERIOR IN LATE AFTN THROUGH MID-EVENING.

TEPID OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BARELY FALL BELOW 80 NEAR THE
COAST WITH MODERATE SW WINDS AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
AND ALSO THE ELEVATED MAXIMUMS WE SAW TODAY. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN RAPID FASHION.
MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY ESSENTIALLY 77-80 NEAR THE COAST AND
MIDDLE 70S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS NEAR THE BEACHES 81-83 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR
ONE MORE DAY OR TWO DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU PREFER. THE ZONAL
FLOW AT THE BASE OF A SUBTLE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL BE THE
CULPRIT. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT MAX HEATING AS DOES THE NAM. I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ROBUST POPS FOR THIS TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH
MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MORE DERIVED
FROM THE SEA BREEZE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. I
INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE KNOWING IT WONT TAKE MUCH OF A CATALYST FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT AND NO
CHANGES WERE WARRANTED. READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT A FULL CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH NW FLOW LOCALLY. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW AND HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EMBEDDED
THEREIN, WHICH WILL MODIFY OUR PRECIP CHANCES. THE CMC ACTUALLY
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE
LATTER KEEPS ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES JUST NORTH OF HERE WHILE THE
GFS HAS LOWERING HEIGHTS IN A VORTICITY-LADEN FLOW. WILL PAINT
HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN ZONES BUT ALLOW FOR ISO COVERAGE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND/OR HEATING LEADING TO
PARCELS AUTO-CONVECTING TO THE LFC/LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY TURN ACTIVE AS DEEPENING TROUGINESS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. HOW
MUCH THIS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES WILL AFFECT HOW UNSETTLED THE
WEEKEND STAYS. THE GFS AGAIN IS A RATHER STRONG OUTLIER WHEREAS THE
CMC AND ECWMF KEEP THE FRONT CLOSER ON SATURDAY FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE FRONT
DRIVEN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR LESS ACTIVE RADAR DAYS AND PERHAPS SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH AFTN SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 12 KTS. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED TSRA MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ITS POSSIBLE THAT ANY OF THE THESE COULD AFFECT THE
SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THUS POSSIBLY CREATING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AND
VFR WILL PERSIST WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. INLAND
SITES COULD POTENTIALLY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED TEMPO ATTM. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 12
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM MONDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
AMZ256 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AS SEAS HAVE PICKED UP INTO
THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS AT
THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ARE FOUND CLOSEST TO THE COAST DUE TO
A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONGER
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND 15-20 ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY...SPEEDS DIMINISH MARKEDLY TO TEN KNOTS
OR LESS. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO MUCH OF A DECREASE AND SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS MAY WANT TO INCREASE THE SPEEDS. SWAN WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS
3-5 FEET FOR SEAS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND 1-3 FEET
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY`S SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT
ON ACCOUNT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH KEEPING THE GRADIENT FAIRLY RELAXED.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BRINGING CONSIDERABLE VEERING
ESPECIALLY OVER NRN ZONES WHILE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA BY SATURDAY
MEANING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAPPED AT 10 KTS...NO SURGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO AT
MOST 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/SHK






000
FXUS62 KILM 182343
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
743 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD TAKE SOME EDGE OFF THE HEAT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM MONDAY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY FADE OVERNIGHT AS SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

UPPER RIDGE REMNANTS OVER THE AREA ALBEIT FLATTENED BY PASSING
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY...HAS ALLOWED POOR MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA. A STRONG MCV FEATURE WAS AIDING IN
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NE NC AND SE VA. ANOTHER IMPULSE
HEADING INTO WESTERN SC WAS SETTING OFF SCATTERED TSTMS FROM FAR
AUGUSTA GA TO COLUMBIA SC TO MARLBORO COUNTY SC. STEERING FLOW
WILL GUIDE CONVECTION FROM WSW TO ENE AT 25 TO 30 MPH. SEVERAL OF
THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHERE AN AWAITING
AND PARTIALLY PINNED SEA BRZ COULD POTENTIALLY PULSE ECHO TOPS TO
HIGHER REACHES...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG
OUR COASTAL INTERIOR IN LATE AFTN THROUGH MID-EVENING.

TEPID OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BARELY FALL BELOW 80 NEAR THE
COAST WITH MODERATE SW WINDS AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
AND ALSO THE ELEVATED MAXIMUMS WE SAW TODAY. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN RAPID FASHION.
MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY ESSENTIALLY 77-80 NEAR THE COAST AND
MIDDLE 70S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS NEAR THE BEACHES 81-83 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR
ONE MORE DAY OR TWO DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU PREFER. THE ZONAL
FLOW AT THE BASE OF A SUBTLE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL BE THE
CULPRIT. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT MAX HEATING AS DOES THE NAM. I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ROBUST POPS FOR THIS TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH
MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MORE DERIVED
FROM THE SEA BREEZE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. I
INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE KNOWING IT WONT TAKE MUCH OF A CATALYST FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT AND NO
CHANGES WERE WARRANTED. READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT A FULL CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH NW FLOW LOCALLY. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW AND HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EMBEDDED
THEREIN, WHICH WILL MODIFY OUR PRECIP CHANCES. THE CMC ACTUALLY
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE
LATTER KEEPS ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES JUST NORTH OF HERE WHILE THE
GFS HAS LOWERING HEIGHTS IN A VORTICITY-LADEN FLOW. WILL PAINT
HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN ZONES BUT ALLOW FOR ISO COVERAGE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND/OR HEATING LEADING TO
PARCELS AUTO-CONVECTING TO THE LFC/LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY TURN ACTIVE AS DEEPENING TROUGINESS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. HOW
MUCH THIS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES WILL AFFECT HOW UNSETTLED THE
WEEKEND STAYS. THE GFS AGAIN IS A RATHER STRONG OUTLIER WHEREAS THE
CMC AND ECWMF KEEP THE FRONT CLOSER ON SATURDAY FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE FRONT
DRIVEN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR LESS ACTIVE RADAR DAYS AND PERHAPS SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH AFTN SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 12 KTS. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED TSRA MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ITS POSSIBLE THAT ANY OF THE THESE COULD AFFECT THE
SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THUS POSSIBLY CREATING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AND
VFR WILL PERSIST WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. INLAND
SITES COULD POTENTIALLY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED TEMPO ATTM. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 12
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM MONDAY...HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AS
SEAS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...WITH S TO SW WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS AT THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ARE FOUND
CLOSEST TO THE COAST DUE TO A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONGER
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND 15-20 ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY...SPEEDS DIMINISH MARKEDLY TO TEN KNOTS
OR LESS. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO MUCH OF A DECREASE AND SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS MAY WANT TO INCREASE THE SPEEDS. SWAN WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS
3-5 FEET FOR SEAS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND 1-3 FEET
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY`S SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT
ON ACCOUNT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH KEEPING THE GRADIENT FAIRLY RELAXED.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BRINGING CONSIDERABLE VEERING
ESPECIALLY OVER NRN ZONES WHILE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA BY SATURDAY
MEANING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAPPED AT 10 KTS...NO SURGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO AT
MOST 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/SHK








000
FXUS62 KILM 182343
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
743 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD TAKE SOME EDGE OFF THE HEAT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM MONDAY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY FADE OVERNIGHT AS SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

UPPER RIDGE REMNANTS OVER THE AREA ALBEIT FLATTENED BY PASSING
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY...HAS ALLOWED POOR MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA. A STRONG MCV FEATURE WAS AIDING IN
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NE NC AND SE VA. ANOTHER IMPULSE
HEADING INTO WESTERN SC WAS SETTING OFF SCATTERED TSTMS FROM FAR
AUGUSTA GA TO COLUMBIA SC TO MARLBORO COUNTY SC. STEERING FLOW
WILL GUIDE CONVECTION FROM WSW TO ENE AT 25 TO 30 MPH. SEVERAL OF
THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHERE AN AWAITING
AND PARTIALLY PINNED SEA BRZ COULD POTENTIALLY PULSE ECHO TOPS TO
HIGHER REACHES...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG
OUR COASTAL INTERIOR IN LATE AFTN THROUGH MID-EVENING.

TEPID OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BARELY FALL BELOW 80 NEAR THE
COAST WITH MODERATE SW WINDS AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
AND ALSO THE ELEVATED MAXIMUMS WE SAW TODAY. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN RAPID FASHION.
MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY ESSENTIALLY 77-80 NEAR THE COAST AND
MIDDLE 70S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS NEAR THE BEACHES 81-83 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR
ONE MORE DAY OR TWO DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU PREFER. THE ZONAL
FLOW AT THE BASE OF A SUBTLE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL BE THE
CULPRIT. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT MAX HEATING AS DOES THE NAM. I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ROBUST POPS FOR THIS TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH
MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MORE DERIVED
FROM THE SEA BREEZE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. I
INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE KNOWING IT WONT TAKE MUCH OF A CATALYST FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT AND NO
CHANGES WERE WARRANTED. READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT A FULL CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH NW FLOW LOCALLY. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW AND HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EMBEDDED
THEREIN, WHICH WILL MODIFY OUR PRECIP CHANCES. THE CMC ACTUALLY
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE
LATTER KEEPS ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES JUST NORTH OF HERE WHILE THE
GFS HAS LOWERING HEIGHTS IN A VORTICITY-LADEN FLOW. WILL PAINT
HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN ZONES BUT ALLOW FOR ISO COVERAGE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND/OR HEATING LEADING TO
PARCELS AUTO-CONVECTING TO THE LFC/LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY TURN ACTIVE AS DEEPENING TROUGINESS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. HOW
MUCH THIS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES WILL AFFECT HOW UNSETTLED THE
WEEKEND STAYS. THE GFS AGAIN IS A RATHER STRONG OUTLIER WHEREAS THE
CMC AND ECWMF KEEP THE FRONT CLOSER ON SATURDAY FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE FRONT
DRIVEN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR LESS ACTIVE RADAR DAYS AND PERHAPS SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH AFTN SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 12 KTS. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED TSRA MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ITS POSSIBLE THAT ANY OF THE THESE COULD AFFECT THE
SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THUS POSSIBLY CREATING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AND
VFR WILL PERSIST WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. INLAND
SITES COULD POTENTIALLY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED TEMPO ATTM. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 12
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM MONDAY...HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AS
SEAS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...WITH S TO SW WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS AT THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ARE FOUND
CLOSEST TO THE COAST DUE TO A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONGER
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND 15-20 ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY...SPEEDS DIMINISH MARKEDLY TO TEN KNOTS
OR LESS. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO MUCH OF A DECREASE AND SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS MAY WANT TO INCREASE THE SPEEDS. SWAN WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS
3-5 FEET FOR SEAS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND 1-3 FEET
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY`S SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT
ON ACCOUNT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH KEEPING THE GRADIENT FAIRLY RELAXED.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BRINGING CONSIDERABLE VEERING
ESPECIALLY OVER NRN ZONES WHILE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA BY SATURDAY
MEANING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAPPED AT 10 KTS...NO SURGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO AT
MOST 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/SHK









000
FXUS62 KILM 182334
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
734 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD TAKE SOME EDGE OFF THE HEAT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM MONDAY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY FADE OVERNIGHT AS SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

UPPER RIDGE REMNANTS OVER THE AREA ALBEIT FLATTENED BY PASSING
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY...HAS ALLOWED POOR MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA. A STRONG MCV FEATURE WAS AIDING IN
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NE NC AND SE VA. ANOTHER IMPULSE
HEADING INTO WESTERN SC WAS SETTING OFF SCATTERED TSTMS FROM FAR
AUGUSTA GA TO COLUMBIA SC TO MARLBORO COUNTY SC. STEERING FLOW
WILL GUIDE CONVECTION FROM WSW TO ENE AT 25 TO 30 MPH. SEVERAL OF
THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHERE AN AWAITING
AND PARTIALLY PINNED SEA BRZ COULD POTENTIALLY PULSE ECHO TOPS TO
HIGHER REACHES...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG
OUR COASTAL INTERIOR IN LATE AFTN THROUGH MID-EVENING.

TEPID OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BARELY FALL BELOW 80 NEAR THE
COAST WITH MODERATE SW WINDS AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
AND ALSO THE ELEVATED MAXIMUMS WE SAW TODAY. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN RAPID FASHION.
MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY ESSENTIALLY 77-80 NEAR THE COAST AND
MIDDLE 70S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS NEAR THE BEACHES 81-83 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR
ONE MORE DAY OR TWO DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU PREFER. THE ZONAL
FLOW AT THE BASE OF A SUBTLE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL BE THE
CULPRIT. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT MAX HEATING AS DOES THE NAM. I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ROBUST POPS FOR THIS TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH
MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MORE DERIVED
FROM THE SEA BREEZE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. I
INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE KNOWING IT WONT TAKE MUCH OF A CATALYST FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT AND NO
CHANGES WERE WARRANTED. READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT A FULL CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH NW FLOW LOCALLY. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW AND HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EMBEDDED
THEREIN, WHICH WILL MODIFY OUR PRECIP CHANCES. THE CMC ACTUALLY
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE
LATTER KEEPS ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES JUST NORTH OF HERE WHILE THE
GFS HAS LOWERING HEIGHTS IN A VORTICITY-LADEN FLOW. WILL PAINT
HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN ZONES BUT ALLOW FOR ISO COVERAGE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND/OR HEATING LEADING TO
PARCELS AUTO-CONVECTING TO THE LFC/LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY TURN ACTIVE AS DEEPENING TROUGINESS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. HOW
MUCH THIS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES WILL AFFECT HOW UNSETTLED THE
WEEKEND STAYS. THE GFS AGAIN IS A RATHER STRONG OUTLIER WHEREAS THE
CMC AND ECWMF KEEP THE FRONT CLOSER ON SATURDAY FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE FRONT
DRIVEN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR LESS ACTIVE RADAR DAYS AND PERHAPS SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STILL SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER
LFC`S STILL HOLDING AROUND 2000 METERS AND HIGHER. BELIEVE THE
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL FINALLY OVERCOME THE CIN...AND WE WILL SEE
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...DECREASING AROUND
03Z. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST UNDER TWO INCHES...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH A STORM MOTION AROUND 20 KTS.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM MONDAY...HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AS
SEAS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...WITH S TO SW WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS AT THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ARE FOUND
CLOSEST TO THE COAST DUE TO A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONGER
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND 15-20 ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY...SPEEDS DIMINISH MARKEDLY TO TEN KNOTS
OR LESS. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO MUCH OF A DECREASE AND SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS MAY WANT TO INCREASE THE SPEEDS. SWAN WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS
3-5 FEET FOR SEAS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND 1-3 FEET
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY`S SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT
ON ACCOUNT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH KEEPING THE GRADIENT FAIRLY RELAXED.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BRINGING CONSIDERABLE VEERING
ESPECIALLY OVER NRN ZONES WHILE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA BY SATURDAY
MEANING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAPPED AT 10 KTS...NO SURGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO AT
MOST 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...99
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 182334
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
734 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD TAKE SOME EDGE OFF THE HEAT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM MONDAY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY FADE OVERNIGHT AS SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

UPPER RIDGE REMNANTS OVER THE AREA ALBEIT FLATTENED BY PASSING
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY...HAS ALLOWED POOR MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA. A STRONG MCV FEATURE WAS AIDING IN
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NE NC AND SE VA. ANOTHER IMPULSE
HEADING INTO WESTERN SC WAS SETTING OFF SCATTERED TSTMS FROM FAR
AUGUSTA GA TO COLUMBIA SC TO MARLBORO COUNTY SC. STEERING FLOW
WILL GUIDE CONVECTION FROM WSW TO ENE AT 25 TO 30 MPH. SEVERAL OF
THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHERE AN AWAITING
AND PARTIALLY PINNED SEA BRZ COULD POTENTIALLY PULSE ECHO TOPS TO
HIGHER REACHES...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG
OUR COASTAL INTERIOR IN LATE AFTN THROUGH MID-EVENING.

TEPID OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BARELY FALL BELOW 80 NEAR THE
COAST WITH MODERATE SW WINDS AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
AND ALSO THE ELEVATED MAXIMUMS WE SAW TODAY. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN RAPID FASHION.
MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY ESSENTIALLY 77-80 NEAR THE COAST AND
MIDDLE 70S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS NEAR THE BEACHES 81-83 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR
ONE MORE DAY OR TWO DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU PREFER. THE ZONAL
FLOW AT THE BASE OF A SUBTLE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL BE THE
CULPRIT. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT MAX HEATING AS DOES THE NAM. I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ROBUST POPS FOR THIS TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH
MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MORE DERIVED
FROM THE SEA BREEZE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. I
INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE KNOWING IT WONT TAKE MUCH OF A CATALYST FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT AND NO
CHANGES WERE WARRANTED. READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT A FULL CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH NW FLOW LOCALLY. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW AND HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EMBEDDED
THEREIN, WHICH WILL MODIFY OUR PRECIP CHANCES. THE CMC ACTUALLY
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE
LATTER KEEPS ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES JUST NORTH OF HERE WHILE THE
GFS HAS LOWERING HEIGHTS IN A VORTICITY-LADEN FLOW. WILL PAINT
HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN ZONES BUT ALLOW FOR ISO COVERAGE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND/OR HEATING LEADING TO
PARCELS AUTO-CONVECTING TO THE LFC/LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY TURN ACTIVE AS DEEPENING TROUGINESS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. HOW
MUCH THIS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES WILL AFFECT HOW UNSETTLED THE
WEEKEND STAYS. THE GFS AGAIN IS A RATHER STRONG OUTLIER WHEREAS THE
CMC AND ECWMF KEEP THE FRONT CLOSER ON SATURDAY FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE FRONT
DRIVEN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR LESS ACTIVE RADAR DAYS AND PERHAPS SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STILL SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER
LFC`S STILL HOLDING AROUND 2000 METERS AND HIGHER. BELIEVE THE
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL FINALLY OVERCOME THE CIN...AND WE WILL SEE
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...DECREASING AROUND
03Z. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST UNDER TWO INCHES...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH A STORM MOTION AROUND 20 KTS.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM MONDAY...HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AS
SEAS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...WITH S TO SW WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS AT THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ARE FOUND
CLOSEST TO THE COAST DUE TO A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONGER
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND 15-20 ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY...SPEEDS DIMINISH MARKEDLY TO TEN KNOTS
OR LESS. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO MUCH OF A DECREASE AND SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS MAY WANT TO INCREASE THE SPEEDS. SWAN WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS
3-5 FEET FOR SEAS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND 1-3 FEET
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY`S SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT
ON ACCOUNT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH KEEPING THE GRADIENT FAIRLY RELAXED.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BRINGING CONSIDERABLE VEERING
ESPECIALLY OVER NRN ZONES WHILE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA BY SATURDAY
MEANING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAPPED AT 10 KTS...NO SURGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO AT
MOST 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...99
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/SHK






000
FXUS62 KILM 181908
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
308 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD TAKE SOME EDGE OFF THE HEAT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE REMNANTS OVER THE AREA ALBEIT
FLATTENED BY PASSING SHORT-WAVE ENERGY...HAS ALLOWED POOR MIDDLE
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA. A STRONG MCV
FEATURE WAS AIDING IN STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NE NC AND
SE VA. ANOTHER IMPULSE HEADING INTO WESTERN SC WAS SETTING OFF
SCATTERED TSTMS FROM FAR AUGUSTA GA TO COLUMBIA SC TO MARLBORO
COUNTY SC. STEERING FLOW WILL GUIDE CONVECTION FROM WSW TO ENE
AT 25 TO 30 MPH. SEVERAL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUSTAIN THIS
ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WHERE AN AWAITING AND PARTIALLY PINNED SEA BRZ
COULD POTENTIALLY PULSE ECHO TOPS TO HIGHER REACHES...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG OUR COASTAL INTERIOR IN
LATE AFTN THROUGH MID-EVENING.

TEPID OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BARELY FALL BELOW 80 NEAR THE
COAST WITH MODERATE SW WINDS AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
AND ALSO THE ELEVATED MAXIMUMS WE SAW TODAY. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN RAPID FASHION.
MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY ESSENTIALLY 77-80 NEAR THE COAST AND
MIDDLE 70S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS NEAR THE BEACHES 81-83 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR ONE MORE
DAY OR TWO DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU PREFER. THE ZONAL FLOW AT THE
BASE OF A SUBTLE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL BE THE CULPRIT. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AT MAX HEATING AS DOES THE NAM. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE ROBUST POPS
FOR THIS TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION
BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MORE DERIVED FROM THE SEA BREEZE WHILE THE
NAM SHOWS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. I INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THIS TIME BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE KNOWING IT
WONT TAKE MUCH OF A CATALYST FOR DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT AND NO CHANGES WERE WARRANTED. READINGS WILL
REMAIN ABOUT A FULL CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH NW FLOW LOCALLY. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW AND HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EMBEDDED
THEREIN, WHICH WILL MODIFY OUR PRECIP CHANCES. THE CMC ACTUALLY
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE
LATTER KEEPS ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES JUST NORTH OF HERE WHILE THE
GFS HAS LOWERING HEIGHTS IN A VORTICITY-LADEN FLOW. WILL PAINT
HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN ZONES BUT ALLOW FOR ISO COVERAGE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND/OR HEATING LEADING TO
PARCELS AUTO-CONVECTING TO THE LFC/LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY TURN ACTIVE AS DEEPENING TROUGINESS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. HOW
MUCH THIS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES WILL AFFECT HOW UNSETTLED THE
WEEKEND STAYS. THE GFS AGAIN IS A RATHER STRONG OUTLIER WHEREAS THE
CMC AND ECWMF KEEP THE FRONT CLOSER ON SATURDAY FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE FRONT
DRIVEN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR LESS ACTIVE RADAR DAYS AND PERHAPS SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STILL SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER
LFC`S STILL HOLDING AROUND 2000 METERS AND HIGHER. BELIEVE THE
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL FINALLY OVERCOME THE CIN...AND WE WILL SEE
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...DECREASING AROUND
03Z. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST UNDER TWO INCHES...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH A STORM MOTION AROUND 20 KTS.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A BUMPY 3-4 FEET ON THE WATERS AND SW GUSTS
TO 20 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH DAWN ON TUESDAY. MARINERS MAY
CONSIDER A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT AS TSTMS MAY BE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT. STORM MOTION THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WSW TO ENE AT 25 TO 30 MPH. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY
WILL TIED TO LOCAL WINDS WITH SHORT PERIODS THUS MAINTAINING THE
BUMPY SEA-STATE. SEA SPECTRUM COMPOSED OF SSW WAVES 3-4 FEET AT
4-5 SECONDS AND WEAK SE SWELL OF 1 FOOT EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONGER
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND 15-20 ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY...SPEEDS DIMINISH MARKEDLY TO TEN KNOTS
OR LESS. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO MUCH OF A DECREASE AND SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS MAY WANT TO INCREASE THE SPEEDS. SWAN WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS
3-5 FEET FOR SEAS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND 1-3 FEET
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY`S SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT
ON ACCOUNT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH KEEPING THE GRADIENT FAIRLY RELAXED.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BRINGING CONSIDERABLE VEERING
ESPECIALLY OVER NRN ZONES WHILE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA BY SATURDAY
MEANING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAPPED AT 10 KTS...NO SURGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO AT
MOST 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 181908
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
308 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD TAKE SOME EDGE OFF THE HEAT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE REMNANTS OVER THE AREA ALBEIT
FLATTENED BY PASSING SHORT-WAVE ENERGY...HAS ALLOWED POOR MIDDLE
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA. A STRONG MCV
FEATURE WAS AIDING IN STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NE NC AND
SE VA. ANOTHER IMPULSE HEADING INTO WESTERN SC WAS SETTING OFF
SCATTERED TSTMS FROM FAR AUGUSTA GA TO COLUMBIA SC TO MARLBORO
COUNTY SC. STEERING FLOW WILL GUIDE CONVECTION FROM WSW TO ENE
AT 25 TO 30 MPH. SEVERAL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUSTAIN THIS
ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WHERE AN AWAITING AND PARTIALLY PINNED SEA BRZ
COULD POTENTIALLY PULSE ECHO TOPS TO HIGHER REACHES...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG OUR COASTAL INTERIOR IN
LATE AFTN THROUGH MID-EVENING.

TEPID OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BARELY FALL BELOW 80 NEAR THE
COAST WITH MODERATE SW WINDS AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
AND ALSO THE ELEVATED MAXIMUMS WE SAW TODAY. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN RAPID FASHION.
MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY ESSENTIALLY 77-80 NEAR THE COAST AND
MIDDLE 70S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS NEAR THE BEACHES 81-83 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR ONE MORE
DAY OR TWO DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU PREFER. THE ZONAL FLOW AT THE
BASE OF A SUBTLE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL BE THE CULPRIT. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AT MAX HEATING AS DOES THE NAM. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE ROBUST POPS
FOR THIS TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION
BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MORE DERIVED FROM THE SEA BREEZE WHILE THE
NAM SHOWS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. I INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS FOR
THIS TIME BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE KNOWING IT
WONT TAKE MUCH OF A CATALYST FOR DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT AND NO CHANGES WERE WARRANTED. READINGS WILL
REMAIN ABOUT A FULL CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH NW FLOW LOCALLY. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW AND HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EMBEDDED
THEREIN, WHICH WILL MODIFY OUR PRECIP CHANCES. THE CMC ACTUALLY
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE
LATTER KEEPS ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES JUST NORTH OF HERE WHILE THE
GFS HAS LOWERING HEIGHTS IN A VORTICITY-LADEN FLOW. WILL PAINT
HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN ZONES BUT ALLOW FOR ISO COVERAGE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND/OR HEATING LEADING TO
PARCELS AUTO-CONVECTING TO THE LFC/LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY TURN ACTIVE AS DEEPENING TROUGINESS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. HOW
MUCH THIS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES WILL AFFECT HOW UNSETTLED THE
WEEKEND STAYS. THE GFS AGAIN IS A RATHER STRONG OUTLIER WHEREAS THE
CMC AND ECWMF KEEP THE FRONT CLOSER ON SATURDAY FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE FRONT
DRIVEN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR LESS ACTIVE RADAR DAYS AND PERHAPS SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STILL SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER
LFC`S STILL HOLDING AROUND 2000 METERS AND HIGHER. BELIEVE THE
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL FINALLY OVERCOME THE CIN...AND WE WILL SEE
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...DECREASING AROUND
03Z. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST UNDER TWO INCHES...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH A STORM MOTION AROUND 20 KTS.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A BUMPY 3-4 FEET ON THE WATERS AND SW GUSTS
TO 20 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH DAWN ON TUESDAY. MARINERS MAY
CONSIDER A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT AS TSTMS MAY BE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT. STORM MOTION THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WSW TO ENE AT 25 TO 30 MPH. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY
WILL TIED TO LOCAL WINDS WITH SHORT PERIODS THUS MAINTAINING THE
BUMPY SEA-STATE. SEA SPECTRUM COMPOSED OF SSW WAVES 3-4 FEET AT
4-5 SECONDS AND WEAK SE SWELL OF 1 FOOT EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONGER
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND 15-20 ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY...SPEEDS DIMINISH MARKEDLY TO TEN KNOTS
OR LESS. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO MUCH OF A DECREASE AND SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS MAY WANT TO INCREASE THE SPEEDS. SWAN WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS
3-5 FEET FOR SEAS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND 1-3 FEET
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY`S SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT
ON ACCOUNT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH KEEPING THE GRADIENT FAIRLY RELAXED.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BRINGING CONSIDERABLE VEERING
ESPECIALLY OVER NRN ZONES WHILE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA BY SATURDAY
MEANING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAPPED AT 10 KTS...NO SURGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO AT
MOST 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 181727
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
127 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD TAKE SOME EDGE OFF THE HEAT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM MONDAY...AUGUST SUNSHINE ROASTING THE REGION WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BOOST AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED CAPES. CONVECTIVE
MESO-SCALE VORTICIES ARE PRESENTLY PASSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THESE
FEATURES WILL PASS ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH EVENING. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT...STRONG
INSOLATION AND ANTICIPATED SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD TEAM TO
SET THE STAGE FOR A CONVECTIVE LY ACTIVE AFTN AND EVENING.

THE WIND FLOW IN THE COLUMN LOCALLY WILL SUPPORT A STORM MOTION
FROM WEST TO EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH. THE 25-35 KT FLOW IN THE H8-H4
LAYER COULD SHAPE A FEW CONVECTIVE BOW-SEGMENTS AND CONSEQUENTLY
STRONG GUSTS. ALTHOUGH SPC DOES NOT INDICATE A SLIGHT RISK TODAY
BELIEVE WITH STRONG HEATING IN THE EARLY GOING AND MODERATE MID
LEVEL FLOW...A STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 100-104 EXPECTED TODAY...AND IT
MAY TURN OUT HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS RESIDE.
DIURNAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN STORMS OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE ACROSS SC MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...BUT LIKELY NOT BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED FOR THE SHORT
TERM...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

GENERALLY FLAT UPPER FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY MEANS FEATURES WILL MOVE
BRISKLY TO THE EAST...AND THUS THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
THEN WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN STRONGER
WITH THIS FRONT IN RECENT RUNS...ENCOURAGED BY A SECONDARY VORT
WHICH WILL TRACK NEARLY OVERHEAD THE ILM CWA. FOR THIS REASON WILL
BUMP POP TO HIGH CHC CWA-WIDE...STILL HIGHEST NORTH...WITH SOME WIND
SHIFT POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WHETHER THIS FRONT ACTUALLY
CROSSES INTO THE CWA WILL MATTER LITTLE TO THE OVERALL SENSIBLE
WEATHER...AS PWATS RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF IT...AND ONLY
MINIMAL AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURS BEHIND IT. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
SOAR INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE
IN THE WARMER/SUNNIER LOCATIONS. SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL WANE AND END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE MID-LEVELS...BUT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STAY WELL INTO THE
70S.

DRY W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH BULGING THICKNESSES AS A 500MB
RIDGE BEGINS TO BLOOM ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A CAP ON CONVECTION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY. SINCE TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
90S...AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR TYPICAL SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT IN A FAR MORE SCATTERED NATURE THAN TUESDAY.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL AGAIN STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S MOST
PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
.
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES VERY AMPLIFIED.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN
BREAKING DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER AND LESS
ROBUST IN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EAST. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...MOS NUMBERS STILL SHOW HOT TEMPS THURSDAY EVEN ON THE
LATEST MEX...SEEMINGLY IN CONTRAST WITH THE GFS ITSELF. FOR THIS
REASON WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE MUTED WITH ITS MID-LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY HOT DAY THURSDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING STRONGLY BLOSSOMING
OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL A LOT TO RESOLVE IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE INHERITED
TREND OF A SLOW PATTERN CHANGE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY
FALLING TO SEASONABLE VALUES...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY AND NW FLOW ENTRENCHED OVERHEAD IS TYPICALLY A SETUP
WHICH SUPPORTS NW FLOW TSTM COMPLEX EVENTS. THIS HAS BEEN HINTED FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW...AND NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES CRESTING THE RIDGE AND DIVING OVERHEAD AS THIS TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE EAST. CANNOT SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY THAT A NW FLOW EVENT
WILL OCCUR LOCALLY...BUT THE SETUP AT LEAST SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STILL SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER
LFC`S STILL HOLDING AROUND 2000 METERS AND HIGHER. BELIEVE THE
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL FINALLY OVERCOME THE CIN...AND WE WILL SEE
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...DECREASING AROUND
03Z. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST UNDER TWO INCHES...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH A STORM MOTION AROUND 20 KTS.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM MONDAY...WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL REMAIN SW
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. LOOK FOR A TIGHTENING SFC PG LATER THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL YIELD SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BUILD
SLOWLY...REACHING 2 TO 4 FT DURING TODAY...3 TO 5 FT TONIGHT.
SEAS A FUNCTION OF LOCAL WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 4 TO 6
SECOND WAVE PERIODS. AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE IMPEDED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT A
MINIMAL WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...IF AT ALL...WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS THROUGH MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL
BE FORMED PRIMARILY THROUGH A 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST DURING THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
3-4 FT...WITH SOME ISOLATED 5 FTERS ON TUESDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS LATE FRIDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MUCH OF THE
LATE-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...BUT BY LATE
FRIDAY A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND TURN TO THE NORTH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
CREATING THE SPECTRUM. A CONFUSED SEA STATE MAY DEVELOP AT THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD IF THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH...BUT ATTM ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SPECTRUM ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL/8







000
FXUS62 KILM 181727
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
127 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD TAKE SOME EDGE OFF THE HEAT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM MONDAY...AUGUST SUNSHINE ROASTING THE REGION WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BOOST AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED CAPES. CONVECTIVE
MESO-SCALE VORTICIES ARE PRESENTLY PASSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THESE
FEATURES WILL PASS ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH EVENING. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT...STRONG
INSOLATION AND ANTICIPATED SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD TEAM TO
SET THE STAGE FOR A CONVECTIVE LY ACTIVE AFTN AND EVENING.

THE WIND FLOW IN THE COLUMN LOCALLY WILL SUPPORT A STORM MOTION
FROM WEST TO EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH. THE 25-35 KT FLOW IN THE H8-H4
LAYER COULD SHAPE A FEW CONVECTIVE BOW-SEGMENTS AND CONSEQUENTLY
STRONG GUSTS. ALTHOUGH SPC DOES NOT INDICATE A SLIGHT RISK TODAY
BELIEVE WITH STRONG HEATING IN THE EARLY GOING AND MODERATE MID
LEVEL FLOW...A STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 100-104 EXPECTED TODAY...AND IT
MAY TURN OUT HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS RESIDE.
DIURNAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN STORMS OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE ACROSS SC MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...BUT LIKELY NOT BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED FOR THE SHORT
TERM...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

GENERALLY FLAT UPPER FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY MEANS FEATURES WILL MOVE
BRISKLY TO THE EAST...AND THUS THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
THEN WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN STRONGER
WITH THIS FRONT IN RECENT RUNS...ENCOURAGED BY A SECONDARY VORT
WHICH WILL TRACK NEARLY OVERHEAD THE ILM CWA. FOR THIS REASON WILL
BUMP POP TO HIGH CHC CWA-WIDE...STILL HIGHEST NORTH...WITH SOME WIND
SHIFT POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WHETHER THIS FRONT ACTUALLY
CROSSES INTO THE CWA WILL MATTER LITTLE TO THE OVERALL SENSIBLE
WEATHER...AS PWATS RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF IT...AND ONLY
MINIMAL AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURS BEHIND IT. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
SOAR INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE
IN THE WARMER/SUNNIER LOCATIONS. SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL WANE AND END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE MID-LEVELS...BUT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STAY WELL INTO THE
70S.

DRY W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH BULGING THICKNESSES AS A 500MB
RIDGE BEGINS TO BLOOM ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A CAP ON CONVECTION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY. SINCE TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
90S...AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR TYPICAL SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT IN A FAR MORE SCATTERED NATURE THAN TUESDAY.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL AGAIN STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S MOST
PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
.
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES VERY AMPLIFIED.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN
BREAKING DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER AND LESS
ROBUST IN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EAST. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...MOS NUMBERS STILL SHOW HOT TEMPS THURSDAY EVEN ON THE
LATEST MEX...SEEMINGLY IN CONTRAST WITH THE GFS ITSELF. FOR THIS
REASON WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE MUTED WITH ITS MID-LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY HOT DAY THURSDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING STRONGLY BLOSSOMING
OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL A LOT TO RESOLVE IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE INHERITED
TREND OF A SLOW PATTERN CHANGE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY
FALLING TO SEASONABLE VALUES...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY AND NW FLOW ENTRENCHED OVERHEAD IS TYPICALLY A SETUP
WHICH SUPPORTS NW FLOW TSTM COMPLEX EVENTS. THIS HAS BEEN HINTED FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW...AND NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES CRESTING THE RIDGE AND DIVING OVERHEAD AS THIS TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE EAST. CANNOT SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY THAT A NW FLOW EVENT
WILL OCCUR LOCALLY...BUT THE SETUP AT LEAST SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STILL SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER
LFC`S STILL HOLDING AROUND 2000 METERS AND HIGHER. BELIEVE THE
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL FINALLY OVERCOME THE CIN...AND WE WILL SEE
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...DECREASING AROUND
03Z. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST UNDER TWO INCHES...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH A STORM MOTION AROUND 20 KTS.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM MONDAY...WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL REMAIN SW
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. LOOK FOR A TIGHTENING SFC PG LATER THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL YIELD SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BUILD
SLOWLY...REACHING 2 TO 4 FT DURING TODAY...3 TO 5 FT TONIGHT.
SEAS A FUNCTION OF LOCAL WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 4 TO 6
SECOND WAVE PERIODS. AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE IMPEDED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT A
MINIMAL WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...IF AT ALL...WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS THROUGH MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL
BE FORMED PRIMARILY THROUGH A 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST DURING THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
3-4 FT...WITH SOME ISOLATED 5 FTERS ON TUESDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS LATE FRIDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MUCH OF THE
LATE-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...BUT BY LATE
FRIDAY A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND TURN TO THE NORTH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
CREATING THE SPECTRUM. A CONFUSED SEA STATE MAY DEVELOP AT THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD IF THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH...BUT ATTM ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SPECTRUM ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL/8








000
FXUS62 KILM 181500
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD TAKE SOME EDGE OFF THE HEAT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM MONDAY...AUGUST SUNSHINE ROASTING THE REGION WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BOOST AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED CAPES. CONVECTIVE
MESO-SCALE VORTICIES ARE PRESENTLY PASSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THESE
FEATURES WILL PASS ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH EVENING. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT...STRONG
INSOLATION AND ANTICIPATED SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD TEAM TO
SET THE STAGE FOR A CONVECTIVE LY ACTIVE AFTN AND EVENING.

THE WIND FLOW IN THE COLUMN LOCALLY WILL SUPPORT A STORM MOTION
FROM WEST TO EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH. THE 25-35 KT FLOW IN THE H8-H4
LAYER COULD SHAPE A FEW CONVECTIVE BOW-SEGMENTS AND CONSEQUENTLY
STRONG GUSTS. ALTHOUGH SPC DOES NOT INDICATE A SLIGHT RISK TODAY
BELIEVE WITH STRONG HEATING IN THE EARLY GOING AND MODERATE MID
LEVEL FLOW...A STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 100-104 EXPECTED TODAY...AND IT
MAY TURN OUT HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS RESIDE.
DIURNAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN STORMS OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE ACROSS SC BUT LIKELY
NOT BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED FOR THE SHORT
TERM...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

GENERALLY FLAT UPPER FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY MEANS FEATURES WILL MOVE
BRISKLY TO THE EAST...AND THUS THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
THEN WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN STRONGER
WITH THIS FRONT IN RECENT RUNS...ENCOURAGED BY A SECONDARY VORT
WHICH WILL TRACK NEARLY OVERHEAD THE ILM CWA. FOR THIS REASON WILL
BUMP POP TO HIGH CHC CWA-WIDE...STILL HIGHEST NORTH...WITH SOME WIND
SHIFT POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WHETHER THIS FRONT ACTUALLY
CROSSES INTO THE CWA WILL MATTER LITTLE TO THE OVERALL SENSIBLE
WEATHER...AS PWATS RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF IT...AND ONLY
MINIMAL AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURS BEHIND IT. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
SOAR INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE
IN THE WARMER/SUNNIER LOCATIONS. SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL WANE AND END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE MID-LEVELS...BUT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STAY WELL INTO THE
70S.

DRY W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH BULGING THICKNESSES AS A 500MB
RIDGE BEGINS TO BLOOM ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A CAP ON CONVECTION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY. SINCE TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
90S...AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR TYPICAL SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT IN A FAR MORE SCATTERED NATURE THAN TUESDAY.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL AGAIN STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S MOST
PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES VERY AMPLIFIED.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN
BREAKING DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER AND LESS
ROBUST IN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EAST. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...MOS NUMBERS STILL SHOW HOT TEMPS THURSDAY EVEN ON THE
LATEST MEX...SEEMINGLY IN CONTRAST WITH THE GFS ITSELF. FOR THIS
REASON WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE MUTED WITH ITS MID-LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY HOT DAY THURSDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING STRONGLY BLOSSOMING
OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL A LOT TO RESOLVE IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE INHERITED
TREND OF A SLOW PATTERN CHANGE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY
FALLING TO SEASONABLE VALUES...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY AND NW FLOW ENTRENCHED OVERHEAD IS TYPICALLY A SETUP
WHICH SUPPORTS NW FLOW TSTM COMPLEX EVENTS. THIS HAS BEEN HINTED FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW...AND NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES CRESTING THE RIDGE AND DIVING OVERHEAD AS THIS TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE EAST. CANNOT SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY THAT A NW FLOW EVENT
WILL OCCUR LOCALLY...BUT THE SETUP AT LEAST SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE REGION WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ABUNDANT...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ONLY MODERATE. GIVEN STRONG HEATING TODAY...CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE
AROUND 17Z...WITH PEAK COVERAGE AROUND 20Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION WINDING DOWN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM MONDAY...WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL REMAIN SW
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. LOOK FOR A TIGHTENING SFC PG LATER THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL YIELD SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BUILD
SLOWLY...REACHING 2 TO 4 FT DURING TODAY...3 TO 5 FT TONIGHT.
SEAS A FUNCTION OF LOCAL WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 4 TO 6
SECOND WAVE PERIODS. AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE IMPEDED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT A
MINIMAL WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...IF AT ALL...WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS THROUGH MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL
BE FORMED PRIMARILY THROUGH A 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST DURING THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
3-4 FT...WITH SOME ISOLATED 5 FTERS ON TUESDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS LATE FRIDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MUCH OF THE
LATE-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...BUT BY LATE
FRIDAY A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND TURN TO THE NORTH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
CREATING THE SPECTRUM. A CONFUSED SEA STATE MAY DEVELOP AT THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD IF THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH...BUT ATTM ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SPECTRUM ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 181500
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD TAKE SOME EDGE OFF THE HEAT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM MONDAY...AUGUST SUNSHINE ROASTING THE REGION WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BOOST AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED CAPES. CONVECTIVE
MESO-SCALE VORTICIES ARE PRESENTLY PASSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THESE
FEATURES WILL PASS ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH EVENING. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT...STRONG
INSOLATION AND ANTICIPATED SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD TEAM TO
SET THE STAGE FOR A CONVECTIVE LY ACTIVE AFTN AND EVENING.

THE WIND FLOW IN THE COLUMN LOCALLY WILL SUPPORT A STORM MOTION
FROM WEST TO EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH. THE 25-35 KT FLOW IN THE H8-H4
LAYER COULD SHAPE A FEW CONVECTIVE BOW-SEGMENTS AND CONSEQUENTLY
STRONG GUSTS. ALTHOUGH SPC DOES NOT INDICATE A SLIGHT RISK TODAY
BELIEVE WITH STRONG HEATING IN THE EARLY GOING AND MODERATE MID
LEVEL FLOW...A STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 100-104 EXPECTED TODAY...AND IT
MAY TURN OUT HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS RESIDE.
DIURNAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN STORMS OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE ACROSS SC BUT LIKELY
NOT BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED FOR THE SHORT
TERM...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

GENERALLY FLAT UPPER FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY MEANS FEATURES WILL MOVE
BRISKLY TO THE EAST...AND THUS THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
THEN WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN STRONGER
WITH THIS FRONT IN RECENT RUNS...ENCOURAGED BY A SECONDARY VORT
WHICH WILL TRACK NEARLY OVERHEAD THE ILM CWA. FOR THIS REASON WILL
BUMP POP TO HIGH CHC CWA-WIDE...STILL HIGHEST NORTH...WITH SOME WIND
SHIFT POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WHETHER THIS FRONT ACTUALLY
CROSSES INTO THE CWA WILL MATTER LITTLE TO THE OVERALL SENSIBLE
WEATHER...AS PWATS RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF IT...AND ONLY
MINIMAL AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURS BEHIND IT. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
SOAR INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE
IN THE WARMER/SUNNIER LOCATIONS. SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL WANE AND END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE MID-LEVELS...BUT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STAY WELL INTO THE
70S.

DRY W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH BULGING THICKNESSES AS A 500MB
RIDGE BEGINS TO BLOOM ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A CAP ON CONVECTION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY. SINCE TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
90S...AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR TYPICAL SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT IN A FAR MORE SCATTERED NATURE THAN TUESDAY.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL AGAIN STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S MOST
PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES VERY AMPLIFIED.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN
BREAKING DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER AND LESS
ROBUST IN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EAST. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...MOS NUMBERS STILL SHOW HOT TEMPS THURSDAY EVEN ON THE
LATEST MEX...SEEMINGLY IN CONTRAST WITH THE GFS ITSELF. FOR THIS
REASON WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE MUTED WITH ITS MID-LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY HOT DAY THURSDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING STRONGLY BLOSSOMING
OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL A LOT TO RESOLVE IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE INHERITED
TREND OF A SLOW PATTERN CHANGE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY
FALLING TO SEASONABLE VALUES...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY AND NW FLOW ENTRENCHED OVERHEAD IS TYPICALLY A SETUP
WHICH SUPPORTS NW FLOW TSTM COMPLEX EVENTS. THIS HAS BEEN HINTED FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW...AND NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES CRESTING THE RIDGE AND DIVING OVERHEAD AS THIS TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE EAST. CANNOT SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY THAT A NW FLOW EVENT
WILL OCCUR LOCALLY...BUT THE SETUP AT LEAST SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE REGION WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ABUNDANT...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ONLY MODERATE. GIVEN STRONG HEATING TODAY...CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE
AROUND 17Z...WITH PEAK COVERAGE AROUND 20Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION WINDING DOWN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM MONDAY...WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL REMAIN SW
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. LOOK FOR A TIGHTENING SFC PG LATER THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL YIELD SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BUILD
SLOWLY...REACHING 2 TO 4 FT DURING TODAY...3 TO 5 FT TONIGHT.
SEAS A FUNCTION OF LOCAL WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 4 TO 6
SECOND WAVE PERIODS. AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE IMPEDED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT A
MINIMAL WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...IF AT ALL...WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS THROUGH MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL
BE FORMED PRIMARILY THROUGH A 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST DURING THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
3-4 FT...WITH SOME ISOLATED 5 FTERS ON TUESDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS LATE FRIDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MUCH OF THE
LATE-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...BUT BY LATE
FRIDAY A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND TURN TO THE NORTH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
CREATING THE SPECTRUM. A CONFUSED SEA STATE MAY DEVELOP AT THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD IF THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH...BUT ATTM ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SPECTRUM ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 181051
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
649 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THE AREA AND REMAINING THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE FRONT COULD DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN NOT AS PRONOUNCED LIKE
LAST WEEK WHERE THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO 1/2 OF THE U.S. WAS UNDER AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF. OVERALL...THE SE STATES WILL REMAIN UNDER A
DE-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WITH A S/W UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NE STATES. FOR THE SE STATES...2 NOTEWORTHY S/W
UPPER TROFS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL PASS N AND S OF THE FA
BUT PARTIALLY AFFECT THE FA WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS. THE
FIRST ONE PASSES JUST N OF THE FA AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...AND THE 2ND MOVES SE TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUE
MORNING. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE AIDED BY THE 1ST S/W TROF WILL
TRAVERSE THE VA-NC BORDER TO OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE TONIGHT.
SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW FROM THE SFC LOW...WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION FOR THE ILM CWA LATER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A PINNED
SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MIDDAY INTO THIS
EVENG. OVERALL LOOKING AT AROUND 40 POPS THIS AFTN AND NIGHT ACROSS
THE FA. LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS
ACROSS THE FA...INDICATE THE FA MAY EXPERIENCE MORE CLOUDINESS THAT
COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS TODAY. WILL ADJUST/TWEAK MAX TEMPS LOWER TODAY
WHICH WILL STILL RESULT WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS THE
FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED FOR THE SHORT
TERM...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

GENERALLY FLAT UPPER FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY MEANS FEATURES WILL MOVE
BRISKLY TO THE EAST...AND THUS THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
THEN WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN STRONGER
WITH THIS FRONT IN RECENT RUNS...ENCOURAGED BY A SECONDARY VORT
WHICH WILL TRACK NEARLY OVERHEAD THE ILM CWA. FOR THIS REASON WILL
BUMP POP TO HIGH CHC CWA-WIDE...STILL HIGHEST NORTH...WITH SOME WIND
SHIFT POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WHETHER THIS FRONT ACTUALLY
CROSSES INTO THE CWA WILL MATTER LITTLE TO THE OVERALL SENSIBLE
WEATHER...AS PWATS RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF IT...AND ONLY
MINIMAL AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURS BEHIND IT. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
SOAR INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE
IN THE WARMER/SUNNIER LOCATIONS. SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL WANE AND END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE MID-LEVELS...BUT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STAY WELL INTO THE
70S.

DRY W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH BULGING THICKNESSES AS A 500MB
RIDGE BEGINS TO BLOOM ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A CAP ON CONVECTION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY. SINCE TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
90S...AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR TYPICAL SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT IN A FAR MORE SCATTERED NATURE THAN TUESDAY.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL AGAIN STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S MOST
PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/....
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES VERY AMPLIFIED.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN
BREAKING DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER AND LESS
ROBUST IN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EAST. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...MOS NUMBERS STILL SHOW HOT TEMPS THURSDAY EVEN ON THE
LATEST MEX...SEEMINGLY IN CONTRAST WITH THE GFS ITSELF. FOR THIS
REASON WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE MUTED WITH ITS MID-LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY HOT DAY THURSDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING STRONGLY BLOSSOMING
OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL A LOT TO RESOLVE IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE INHERITED
TREND OF A SLOW PATTERN CHANGE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY
FALLING TO SEASONABLE VALUES...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY AND NW FLOW ENTRENCHED OVERHEAD IS TYPICALLY A SETUP
WHICH SUPPORTS NW FLOW TSTM COMPLEX EVENTS. THIS HAS BEEN HINTED FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW...AND NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES CRESTING THE RIDGE AND DIVING OVERHEAD AS THIS TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE EAST. CANNOT SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY THAT A NW FLOW EVENT
WILL OCCUR LOCALLY...BUT THE SETUP AT LEAST SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE REGION WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ABUNDANT...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ONLY MODERATE. GIVEN STRONG HEATING TODAY...CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE
AROUND 17Z...WITH PEAK COVERAGE AROUND 20Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION WINDING DOWN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A NE-
SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY THAT MIMICS THE PIEDMONT TROF DUE TO ITS
POSITIONING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL REMAIN SW THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. LOOK FOR A TIGHTENING SFC
PG LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL YIELD SW WINDS AROUND
15 KT TODAY...AND 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS THRUOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BUILD
SLOWLY...REACHING 2 TO 4 FT DURING TODAY...AND 3 TO 5 FT DURING
TONIGHT. SIG. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE A FUNCTION OF THE LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SW WINDS AND RESULTING
SIG. SEAS...COULD BREACH SCEC THRESHOLDS LATER THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. WILL NEED ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO CONFIRM THIS B4 RAISING
THE SCEC FLAG.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE IMPEDED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT A
MINIMAL WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...IF AT ALL...WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS THROUGH MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL
BE FORMED PRIMARILY THROUGH A 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST DURING THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
3-4 FT...WITH SOME ISOLATED 5 FTERS ON TUESDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS LATE FRIDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MUCH OF THE
LATE-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...BUT BY LATE
FRIDAY A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND TURN TO THE NORTH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
CREATING THE SPECTRUM. A CONFUSED SEA STATE MAY DEVELOP AT THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD IF THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH...BUT ATTM ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SPECTRUM ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 181051
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
649 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THE AREA AND REMAINING THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE FRONT COULD DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN NOT AS PRONOUNCED LIKE
LAST WEEK WHERE THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO 1/2 OF THE U.S. WAS UNDER AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF. OVERALL...THE SE STATES WILL REMAIN UNDER A
DE-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WITH A S/W UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NE STATES. FOR THE SE STATES...2 NOTEWORTHY S/W
UPPER TROFS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL PASS N AND S OF THE FA
BUT PARTIALLY AFFECT THE FA WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS. THE
FIRST ONE PASSES JUST N OF THE FA AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...AND THE 2ND MOVES SE TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUE
MORNING. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE AIDED BY THE 1ST S/W TROF WILL
TRAVERSE THE VA-NC BORDER TO OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE TONIGHT.
SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW FROM THE SFC LOW...WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION FOR THE ILM CWA LATER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A PINNED
SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MIDDAY INTO THIS
EVENG. OVERALL LOOKING AT AROUND 40 POPS THIS AFTN AND NIGHT ACROSS
THE FA. LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS
ACROSS THE FA...INDICATE THE FA MAY EXPERIENCE MORE CLOUDINESS THAT
COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS TODAY. WILL ADJUST/TWEAK MAX TEMPS LOWER TODAY
WHICH WILL STILL RESULT WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS THE
FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED FOR THE SHORT
TERM...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

GENERALLY FLAT UPPER FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY MEANS FEATURES WILL MOVE
BRISKLY TO THE EAST...AND THUS THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
THEN WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN STRONGER
WITH THIS FRONT IN RECENT RUNS...ENCOURAGED BY A SECONDARY VORT
WHICH WILL TRACK NEARLY OVERHEAD THE ILM CWA. FOR THIS REASON WILL
BUMP POP TO HIGH CHC CWA-WIDE...STILL HIGHEST NORTH...WITH SOME WIND
SHIFT POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WHETHER THIS FRONT ACTUALLY
CROSSES INTO THE CWA WILL MATTER LITTLE TO THE OVERALL SENSIBLE
WEATHER...AS PWATS RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF IT...AND ONLY
MINIMAL AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURS BEHIND IT. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
SOAR INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE
IN THE WARMER/SUNNIER LOCATIONS. SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL WANE AND END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE MID-LEVELS...BUT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STAY WELL INTO THE
70S.

DRY W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH BULGING THICKNESSES AS A 500MB
RIDGE BEGINS TO BLOOM ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A CAP ON CONVECTION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY. SINCE TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
90S...AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR TYPICAL SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT IN A FAR MORE SCATTERED NATURE THAN TUESDAY.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL AGAIN STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S MOST
PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/....
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES VERY AMPLIFIED.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN
BREAKING DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER AND LESS
ROBUST IN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EAST. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...MOS NUMBERS STILL SHOW HOT TEMPS THURSDAY EVEN ON THE
LATEST MEX...SEEMINGLY IN CONTRAST WITH THE GFS ITSELF. FOR THIS
REASON WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE MUTED WITH ITS MID-LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY HOT DAY THURSDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING STRONGLY BLOSSOMING
OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL A LOT TO RESOLVE IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE INHERITED
TREND OF A SLOW PATTERN CHANGE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY
FALLING TO SEASONABLE VALUES...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY AND NW FLOW ENTRENCHED OVERHEAD IS TYPICALLY A SETUP
WHICH SUPPORTS NW FLOW TSTM COMPLEX EVENTS. THIS HAS BEEN HINTED FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW...AND NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES CRESTING THE RIDGE AND DIVING OVERHEAD AS THIS TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE EAST. CANNOT SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY THAT A NW FLOW EVENT
WILL OCCUR LOCALLY...BUT THE SETUP AT LEAST SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE REGION WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ABUNDANT...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ONLY MODERATE. GIVEN STRONG HEATING TODAY...CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE
AROUND 17Z...WITH PEAK COVERAGE AROUND 20Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION WINDING DOWN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A NE-
SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY THAT MIMICS THE PIEDMONT TROF DUE TO ITS
POSITIONING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL REMAIN SW THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. LOOK FOR A TIGHTENING SFC
PG LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL YIELD SW WINDS AROUND
15 KT TODAY...AND 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS THRUOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BUILD
SLOWLY...REACHING 2 TO 4 FT DURING TODAY...AND 3 TO 5 FT DURING
TONIGHT. SIG. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE A FUNCTION OF THE LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SW WINDS AND RESULTING
SIG. SEAS...COULD BREACH SCEC THRESHOLDS LATER THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. WILL NEED ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO CONFIRM THIS B4 RAISING
THE SCEC FLAG.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE IMPEDED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT A
MINIMAL WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...IF AT ALL...WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS THROUGH MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL
BE FORMED PRIMARILY THROUGH A 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST DURING THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
3-4 FT...WITH SOME ISOLATED 5 FTERS ON TUESDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS LATE FRIDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MUCH OF THE
LATE-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...BUT BY LATE
FRIDAY A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND TURN TO THE NORTH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
CREATING THE SPECTRUM. A CONFUSED SEA STATE MAY DEVELOP AT THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD IF THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH...BUT ATTM ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SPECTRUM ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43









000
FXUS62 KILM 181046
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
646 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THE AREA AND REMAINING THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE FRONT COULD DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN NOT AS PRONOUNCED
LIKE LAST WEEK WHERE THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO 1/2 OF THE U.S. WAS
UNDER AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF. OVERALL...THE SE STATES WILL REMAIN
UNDER A DE-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WITH A S/W UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE STATES. FOR THE SE STATES...2
NOTEWORTHY S/W TROFS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL PASS N AND S
OF THE FA RESPECTIVELY BUT PARTIALLY AFFECT THE FA WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS. THE FIRST ONE PASSES JUST N OF THE FA AND OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...AND THE 2ND MOVES SE TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUE MORNING. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE
AIDED BY THE 1ST S/W TROF WILL TRAVERSE THE VA-NC BORDER TO OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST LATE TONIGHT. SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW FROM
THE SFC LOW...WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE ILM CWA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A PINNED SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENG. OVERALL LOOKING AT AROUND
40 POPS THIS AFTN AND NIGHT ACROSS THE FA. LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND
VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA...INDICATE THE FA
MAY EXPERIENCE MORE CLOUDINESS THAT COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS TODAY.
WILL ADJUST/TWEAK MAX TEMPS LOWER TODAY WHICH WILL STILL RESULT
WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED FOR THE SHORT
TERM...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

GENERALLY FLAT UPPER FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY MEANS FEATURES WILL MOVE
BRISKLY TO THE EAST...AND THUS THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
THEN WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN STRONGER
WITH THIS FRONT IN RECENT RUNS...ENCOURAGED BY A SECONDARY VORT
WHICH WILL TRACK NEARLY OVERHEAD THE ILM CWA. FOR THIS REASON WILL
BUMP POP TO HIGH CHC CWA-WIDE...STILL HIGHEST NORTH...WITH SOME WIND
SHIFT POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WHETHER THIS FRONT ACTUALLY
CROSSES INTO THE CWA WILL MATTER LITTLE TO THE OVERALL SENSIBLE
WEATHER...AS PWATS RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF IT...AND ONLY
MINIMAL AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURS BEHIND IT. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
SOAR INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE
IN THE WARMER/SUNNIER LOCATIONS. SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL WANE AND END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE MID-LEVELS...BUT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STAY WELL INTO THE
70S.

DRY W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH BULGING THICKNESSES AS A 500MB
RIDGE BEGINS TO BLOOM ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A CAP ON CONVECTION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY. SINCE TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
90S...AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR TYPICAL SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT IN A FAR MORE SCATTERED NATURE THAN TUESDAY.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL AGAIN STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S MOST
PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES VERY AMPLIFIED.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN
BREAKING DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER AND LESS
ROBUST IN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EAST. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...MOS NUMBERS STILL SHOW HOT TEMPS THURSDAY EVEN ON THE
LATEST MEX...SEEMINGLY IN CONTRAST WITH THE GFS ITSELF. FOR THIS
REASON WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE MUTED WITH ITS MID-LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY HOT DAY THURSDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING STRONGLY BLOSSOMING
OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL A LOT TO RESOLVE IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE INHERITED
TREND OF A SLOW PATTERN CHANGE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY
FALLING TO SEASONABLE VALUES...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY AND NW FLOW ENTRENCHED OVERHEAD IS TYPICALLY A SETUP
WHICH SUPPORTS NW FLOW TSTM COMPLEX EVENTS. THIS HAS BEEN HINTED FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW...AND NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES CRESTING THE RIDGE AND DIVING OVERHEAD AS THIS TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE EAST. CANNOT SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY THAT A NW FLOW EVENT
WILL OCCUR LOCALLY...BUT THE SETUP AT LEAST SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS
AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AND/OR CRE WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.
INCREASING VFR LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD AID IN PREVENTING ANY IFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITIES. TOWARDS MORNING THERE MAY BE ISOLATED...IE.
LOW CHANCE...FOR CONVECTION AT KLBT/KFLO.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT WARMING TEMPERATURE AFTER
SUNRISE...CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE BETWEEN 16-19Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
TSRA WILL BE AT KCRE/KMYR WHERE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL SPREAD
ACTIVITY ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. TSRA WILL
ALSO BE MORE LIKELY AT KLBT WHERE GREATER LIFT IS EXPECTED DUE TO
ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH. DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DURING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL DECREASE/BECOME
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A NE-
SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY...THAT MIMICS THE PIEDMONT TROF DUE TO ITS
POSITIONING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. LOOK FOR A
TIGHTENING SFC PG LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT TODAY...AND 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT
TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS THRUOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BUILD
SLOWLY...REACHING 2 TO 4 FT DURING TODAY...AND 3 TO 5 FT DURING
TONIGHT. SIG. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE A FUNCTION OF THE LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SW WINDS AND RESULTING
SIG. SEAS...COULD BREACH SCEC THRESHOLDS LATER THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. WILL NEED ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO CONFIRM THIS B4 RAISING
THE SCEC FLAG.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE IMPEDED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT A
MINIMAL WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...IF AT ALL...WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS THROUGH MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL
BE FORMED PRIMARILY THROUGH A 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST DURING THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
3-4 FT...WITH SOME ISOLATED 5 FTERS ON TUESDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS LATE FRIDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MUCH OF THE
LATE-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...BUT BY LATE
FRIDAY A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND TURN TO THE NORTH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
CREATING THE SPECTRUM. A CONFUSED SEA STATE MAY DEVELOP AT THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD IF THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH...BUT ATTM ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SPECTRUM ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/MRR






000
FXUS62 KILM 181046
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
646 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THE AREA AND REMAINING THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE FRONT COULD DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN NOT AS PRONOUNCED
LIKE LAST WEEK WHERE THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO 1/2 OF THE U.S. WAS
UNDER AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF. OVERALL...THE SE STATES WILL REMAIN
UNDER A DE-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WITH A S/W UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE STATES. FOR THE SE STATES...2
NOTEWORTHY S/W TROFS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL PASS N AND S
OF THE FA RESPECTIVELY BUT PARTIALLY AFFECT THE FA WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS. THE FIRST ONE PASSES JUST N OF THE FA AND OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...AND THE 2ND MOVES SE TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUE MORNING. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE
AIDED BY THE 1ST S/W TROF WILL TRAVERSE THE VA-NC BORDER TO OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST LATE TONIGHT. SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW FROM
THE SFC LOW...WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE ILM CWA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A PINNED SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENG. OVERALL LOOKING AT AROUND
40 POPS THIS AFTN AND NIGHT ACROSS THE FA. LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND
VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA...INDICATE THE FA
MAY EXPERIENCE MORE CLOUDINESS THAT COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS TODAY.
WILL ADJUST/TWEAK MAX TEMPS LOWER TODAY WHICH WILL STILL RESULT
WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED FOR THE SHORT
TERM...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

GENERALLY FLAT UPPER FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY MEANS FEATURES WILL MOVE
BRISKLY TO THE EAST...AND THUS THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
THEN WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN STRONGER
WITH THIS FRONT IN RECENT RUNS...ENCOURAGED BY A SECONDARY VORT
WHICH WILL TRACK NEARLY OVERHEAD THE ILM CWA. FOR THIS REASON WILL
BUMP POP TO HIGH CHC CWA-WIDE...STILL HIGHEST NORTH...WITH SOME WIND
SHIFT POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WHETHER THIS FRONT ACTUALLY
CROSSES INTO THE CWA WILL MATTER LITTLE TO THE OVERALL SENSIBLE
WEATHER...AS PWATS RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF IT...AND ONLY
MINIMAL AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURS BEHIND IT. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
SOAR INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE
IN THE WARMER/SUNNIER LOCATIONS. SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL WANE AND END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE MID-LEVELS...BUT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STAY WELL INTO THE
70S.

DRY W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH BULGING THICKNESSES AS A 500MB
RIDGE BEGINS TO BLOOM ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A CAP ON CONVECTION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY. SINCE TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
90S...AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR TYPICAL SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT IN A FAR MORE SCATTERED NATURE THAN TUESDAY.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL AGAIN STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S MOST
PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES VERY AMPLIFIED.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN
BREAKING DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER AND LESS
ROBUST IN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EAST. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...MOS NUMBERS STILL SHOW HOT TEMPS THURSDAY EVEN ON THE
LATEST MEX...SEEMINGLY IN CONTRAST WITH THE GFS ITSELF. FOR THIS
REASON WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE MUTED WITH ITS MID-LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY HOT DAY THURSDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING STRONGLY BLOSSOMING
OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL A LOT TO RESOLVE IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE INHERITED
TREND OF A SLOW PATTERN CHANGE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY
FALLING TO SEASONABLE VALUES...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY AND NW FLOW ENTRENCHED OVERHEAD IS TYPICALLY A SETUP
WHICH SUPPORTS NW FLOW TSTM COMPLEX EVENTS. THIS HAS BEEN HINTED FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW...AND NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES CRESTING THE RIDGE AND DIVING OVERHEAD AS THIS TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE EAST. CANNOT SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY THAT A NW FLOW EVENT
WILL OCCUR LOCALLY...BUT THE SETUP AT LEAST SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS
AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AND/OR CRE WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.
INCREASING VFR LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD AID IN PREVENTING ANY IFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITIES. TOWARDS MORNING THERE MAY BE ISOLATED...IE.
LOW CHANCE...FOR CONVECTION AT KLBT/KFLO.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT WARMING TEMPERATURE AFTER
SUNRISE...CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE BETWEEN 16-19Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
TSRA WILL BE AT KCRE/KMYR WHERE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL SPREAD
ACTIVITY ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. TSRA WILL
ALSO BE MORE LIKELY AT KLBT WHERE GREATER LIFT IS EXPECTED DUE TO
ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH. DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DURING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL DECREASE/BECOME
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A NE-
SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY...THAT MIMICS THE PIEDMONT TROF DUE TO ITS
POSITIONING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WILL REMAIN SW THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. LOOK FOR A
TIGHTENING SFC PG LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT TODAY...AND 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT
TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS THRUOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BUILD
SLOWLY...REACHING 2 TO 4 FT DURING TODAY...AND 3 TO 5 FT DURING
TONIGHT. SIG. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE A FUNCTION OF THE LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SW WINDS AND RESULTING
SIG. SEAS...COULD BREACH SCEC THRESHOLDS LATER THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. WILL NEED ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO CONFIRM THIS B4 RAISING
THE SCEC FLAG.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE IMPEDED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT A
MINIMAL WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...IF AT ALL...WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS THROUGH MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL
BE FORMED PRIMARILY THROUGH A 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST DURING THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
3-4 FT...WITH SOME ISOLATED 5 FTERS ON TUESDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS LATE FRIDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MUCH OF THE
LATE-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...BUT BY LATE
FRIDAY A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND TURN TO THE NORTH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
CREATING THE SPECTRUM. A CONFUSED SEA STATE MAY DEVELOP AT THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD IF THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH...BUT ATTM ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SPECTRUM ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 180752
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THE AREA AND REMAINING THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE FRONT COULD DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN NOT AS PRONOUNCED LIKE
LAST WEEK WHERE THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO 1/2 OF THE U.S. WAS UNDER AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF. OVERALL...THE SE STATES WILL REMAIN UNDER A
DE-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WITH A S/W UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NE STATES. FOR THE SE STATES...2 NOTEWORTHY S/W
UPPER TROFS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL PASS N AND S OF THE FA
BUT PARTIALLY AFFECT THE FA WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS. THE
FIRST ONE PASSES JUST N OF THE FA AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...AND THE 2ND MOVES SE TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUE
MORNING. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE AIDED BY THE 1ST S/W TROF WILL
TRAVERSE THE VA-NC BORDER TO OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE TONIGHT.
SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW FROM THE SFC LOW...WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION FOR THE ILM CWA LATER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A PINNED
SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MIDDAY INTO THIS
EVENG. OVERALL LOOKING AT AROUND 40 POPS THIS AFTN AND NIGHT ACROSS
THE FA. LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS
ACROSS THE FA...INDICATE THE FA MAY EXPERIENCE MORE CLOUDINESS THAT
COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS TODAY. WILL ADJUST/TWEAK MAX TEMPS LOWER TODAY
WHICH WILL STILL RESULT WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS THE
FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED FOR THE SHORT
TERM...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

GENERALLY FLAT UPPER FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY MEANS FEATURES WILL MOVE
BRISKLY TO THE EAST...AND THUS THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
THEN WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN STRONGER
WITH THIS FRONT IN RECENT RUNS...ENCOURAGED BY A SECONDARY VORT
WHICH WILL TRACK NEARLY OVERHEAD THE ILM CWA. FOR THIS REASON WILL
BUMP POP TO HIGH CHC CWA-WIDE...STILL HIGHEST NORTH...WITH SOME WIND
SHIFT POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. WHETHER THIS FRONT ACTUALLY
CROSSES INTO THE CWA WILL MATTER LITTLE TO THE OVERALL SENSIBLE
WEATHER...AS PWATS RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES AHEAD OF IT...AND ONLY
MINIMAL AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURS BEHIND IT. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
SOAR INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE
IN THE WARMER/SUNNIER LOCATIONS. SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL WANE AND END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE MID-LEVELS...BUT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STAY WELL INTO THE
70S.

DRY W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH BULGING THICKNESSES AS A 500MB
RIDGE BEGINS TO BLOOM ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A CAP ON CONVECTION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY. SINCE TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
90S...AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR TYPICAL SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT IN A FAR MORE SCATTERED NATURE THAN TUESDAY.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL AGAIN STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S MOST
PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/....
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES VERY AMPLIFIED.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN
BREAKING DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER AND LESS
ROBUST IN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EAST. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...MOS NUMBERS STILL SHOW HOT TEMPS THURSDAY EVEN ON THE
LATEST MEX...SEEMINGLY IN CONTRAST WITH THE GFS ITSELF. FOR THIS
REASON WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE MUTED WITH ITS MID-LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY HOT DAY THURSDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING STRONGLY BLOSSOMING
OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL A LOT TO RESOLVE IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE INHERITED
TREND OF A SLOW PATTERN CHANGE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY
FALLING TO SEASONABLE VALUES...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY AND NW FLOW ENTRENCHED OVERHEAD IS TYPICALLY A SETUP
WHICH SUPPORTS NW FLOW TSTM COMPLEX EVENTS. THIS HAS BEEN HINTED FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW...AND NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES CRESTING THE RIDGE AND DIVING OVERHEAD AS THIS TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE EAST. CANNOT SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY THAT A NW FLOW EVENT
WILL OCCUR LOCALLY...BUT THE SETUP AT LEAST SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS
AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AND/OR CRE WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.
INCREASING VFR LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD AID IN PREVENTING ANY IFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITIES. TOWARDS MORNING THERE MAY BE ISOLATED...IE.
LOW CHANCE...FOR CONVECTION AT KLBT/KFLO.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT WARMING TEMPERATURE AFTER
SUNRISE...CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE BETWEEN 16-19Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
TSRA WILL BE AT KCRE/KMYR WHERE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL SPREAD
ACTIVITY ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. TSRA WILL
ALSO BE MORE LIKELY AT KLBT WHERE GREATER LIFT IS EXPECTED DUE TO
ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH. DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DURING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL DECREASE/BECOME
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A NE-
SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY THAT MIMICS THE PIEDMONT TROF DUE TO ITS
POSITIONING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL REMAIN SW THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. LOOK FOR A TIGHTENING SFC
PG LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL YIELD SW WINDS AROUND
15 KT TODAY...AND 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS THRUOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BUILD
SLOWLY...REACHING 2 TO 4 FT DURING TODAY...AND 3 TO 5 FT DURING
TONIGHT. SIG. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE A FUNCTION OF THE LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SW WINDS AND RESULTING
SIG. SEAS...COULD BREACH SCEC THRESHOLDS LATER THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. WILL NEED ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO CONFIRM THIS B4 RAISING
THE SCEC FLAG.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE IMPEDED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT A
MINIMAL WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...IF AT ALL...WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS THROUGH MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL
BE FORMED PRIMARILY THROUGH A 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST DURING THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
3-4 FT...WITH SOME ISOLATED 5 FTERS ON TUESDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS LATE FRIDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MUCH OF THE
LATE-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...BUT BY LATE
FRIDAY A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND TURN TO THE NORTH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
CREATING THE SPECTRUM. A CONFUSED SEA STATE MAY DEVELOP AT THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD IF THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH...BUT ATTM ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SPECTRUM ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/MRR






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities