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000
FXUS62 KILM 281147
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL
AREA WEATHER TODAY WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW.  MAXIMUM TEMPS WITH INCREASINGLY FILTERED SUN SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ABOVE THE COOLER AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AT LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN LATE...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE
SUB CLOUD COLUMN.  MINS WILL FALL TO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH
UPPER 20S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.  FOR NOW POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
30 PERCENT WESTERN AREAS WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LIMITED TO
ROUGHLY THE 5 NW COUNTIES.  NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE U.S 701 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL [PRODUCE NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS THE ENDS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LIKELY
AS LIGHT RAIN BREAKS OUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR SUNDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE CONTINUED TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TODAY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 281147
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL
AREA WEATHER TODAY WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW.  MAXIMUM TEMPS WITH INCREASINGLY FILTERED SUN SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ABOVE THE COOLER AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AT LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN LATE...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE
SUB CLOUD COLUMN.  MINS WILL FALL TO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH
UPPER 20S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.  FOR NOW POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
30 PERCENT WESTERN AREAS WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LIMITED TO
ROUGHLY THE 5 NW COUNTIES.  NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE U.S 701 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL [PRODUCE NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS THE ENDS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LIKELY
AS LIGHT RAIN BREAKS OUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR SUNDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE CONTINUED TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TODAY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR











000
FXUS62 KILM 281147
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL
AREA WEATHER TODAY WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW.  MAXIMUM TEMPS WITH INCREASINGLY FILTERED SUN SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ABOVE THE COOLER AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AT LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN LATE...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE
SUB CLOUD COLUMN.  MINS WILL FALL TO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH
UPPER 20S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.  FOR NOW POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
30 PERCENT WESTERN AREAS WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LIMITED TO
ROUGHLY THE 5 NW COUNTIES.  NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE U.S 701 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL [PRODUCE NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS THE ENDS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LIKELY
AS LIGHT RAIN BREAKS OUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR SUNDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE CONTINUED TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TODAY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 281147
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL
AREA WEATHER TODAY WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW.  MAXIMUM TEMPS WITH INCREASINGLY FILTERED SUN SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ABOVE THE COOLER AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AT LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN LATE...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE
SUB CLOUD COLUMN.  MINS WILL FALL TO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH
UPPER 20S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.  FOR NOW POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
30 PERCENT WESTERN AREAS WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LIMITED TO
ROUGHLY THE 5 NW COUNTIES.  NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE U.S 701 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL [PRODUCE NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS THE ENDS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LIKELY
AS LIGHT RAIN BREAKS OUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR SUNDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE CONTINUED TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TODAY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR











000
FXUS62 KILM 280823
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL
AREA WEATHER TODAY WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW.  MAXIMUM TEMPS WITH INCREASINGLY FILTERED SUN SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ABOVE THE COOLER AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AT LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN LATE...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE
SUB CLOUD COLUMN.  MINS WILL FALL TO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH
UPPER 20S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.  FOR NOW POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
30 PERCENT WESTERN AREAS WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LIMITED TO
ROUGHLY THE 5 NW COUNTIES.  NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE U.S 701 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALLOW
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL YIELDING INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WHICH COULD CREATE MVFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE CONTINUED TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TODAY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/31










000
FXUS62 KILM 280823
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL
AREA WEATHER TODAY WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW.  MAXIMUM TEMPS WITH INCREASINGLY FILTERED SUN SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ABOVE THE COOLER AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AT LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN LATE...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE
SUB CLOUD COLUMN.  MINS WILL FALL TO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH
UPPER 20S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.  FOR NOW POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
30 PERCENT WESTERN AREAS WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LIMITED TO
ROUGHLY THE 5 NW COUNTIES.  NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE U.S 701 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALLOW
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL YIELDING INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WHICH COULD CREATE MVFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE CONTINUED TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TODAY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/31











000
FXUS62 KILM 280537
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALLOW
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL YIELDING INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WHICH COULD CREATE MVFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/31







000
FXUS62 KILM 280537
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALLOW
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL YIELDING INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WHICH COULD CREATE MVFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/31








000
FXUS62 KILM 280537
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALLOW
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL YIELDING INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WHICH COULD CREATE MVFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/31








000
FXUS62 KILM 280537
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALLOW
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL YIELDING INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WHICH COULD CREATE MVFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/31







000
FXUS62 KILM 280257
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
956 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN INCREASES
AS WELL AS LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
THIS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 280257
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
956 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN INCREASES
AS WELL AS LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
THIS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 280257
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
956 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN INCREASES
AS WELL AS LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
THIS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 280257
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
956 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN INCREASES
AS WELL AS LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
THIS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 272336
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
636 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW
CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE
SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO
LOOK AT CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO
HELP DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS
SHOW DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I
HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL
FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 WITH SOME MID 20S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THIS COLD HIGH BUILDS STRONGLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO
BECOME ELEVATED. NNE TO NE WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THEN THEY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVE. THESE WINDS
SHOULD AID IN ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE TEMP DROP WILL BE MODERATED BY THE ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AROUND.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SHOWING A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING 1000 TO 1500 FT AGL AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND ALLOWS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
FEED INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN INCREASES
AS WELL AS LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
THIS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE
BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH INCREASING SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

AS THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST STATES
THIS EVE...IT WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP SOONER. THE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY SAT MORNING AND BY THAT
TIME...A WEDGE WILL BE JUST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHICH
WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT TO ALMOST PINCHED. THUS...WINDS SHOULD
BE HIGHER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVE OF UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE EVE
AND OVERNIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE NNE TO NE. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 3
TO 5 FT THIS EVE AND TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
OF LONG BAY WILL BE CLOSER TO 3 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 272336
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
636 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW
CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE
SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO
LOOK AT CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO
HELP DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS
SHOW DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I
HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL
FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 WITH SOME MID 20S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THIS COLD HIGH BUILDS STRONGLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO
BECOME ELEVATED. NNE TO NE WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THEN THEY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVE. THESE WINDS
SHOULD AID IN ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE TEMP DROP WILL BE MODERATED BY THE ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AROUND.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SHOWING A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING 1000 TO 1500 FT AGL AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND ALLOWS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
FEED INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN INCREASES
AS WELL AS LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
THIS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE
BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH INCREASING SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

AS THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST STATES
THIS EVE...IT WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP SOONER. THE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY SAT MORNING AND BY THAT
TIME...A WEDGE WILL BE JUST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHICH
WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT TO ALMOST PINCHED. THUS...WINDS SHOULD
BE HIGHER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVE OF UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE EVE
AND OVERNIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE NNE TO NE. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 3
TO 5 FT THIS EVE AND TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
OF LONG BAY WILL BE CLOSER TO 3 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 272037
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
337 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. DRY
BUT CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE BEGINNING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
WITH SOME MID 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS THIS COLD HIGH BUILDS STRONGLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO
BECOME ELEVATED. NNE TO NE WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THEN THEY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVE. THESE WINDS
SHOULD AID IN ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE TEMP DROP WILL BE MODERATED BY THE ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AROUND.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SHOWING A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING 1000 TO 1500 FT AGL AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND ALLOWS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
FEED INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
SW TO W WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS
THROUGH MON WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MON
NIGHT. BY TUES THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL GET A PUSH BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH TUES INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AND GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH AN APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE WED. THIS
SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL DRIVE SEAS UP LATE TUES THROUGH WED...UP TO 3 TO
5 FT BY TUES EVE AND THEN REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS BY WED. THE SEAS
SHOULD PEAK WED NIGHT UP AROUND 7 FT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER THIS EVE. AS THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDWEST STATES THIS EVE...IT WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER
WINDS TO DEVELOP SOONER. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA BY SAT MORNING AND BY THAT TIME...A WEDGE WILL BE JUST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHICH WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT
TO ALMOST PINCHED. THUS...WINDS SHOULD BE HIGHER AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE OF UP TO 15 TO
20 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NNE TO NE. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS EVE AND
TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF LONG BAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO 3 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 272037
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
337 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. DRY
BUT CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE BEGINNING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
WITH SOME MID 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS THIS COLD HIGH BUILDS STRONGLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO
BECOME ELEVATED. NNE TO NE WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THEN THEY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVE. THESE WINDS
SHOULD AID IN ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE TEMP DROP WILL BE MODERATED BY THE ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AROUND.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SHOWING A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING 1000 TO 1500 FT AGL AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND ALLOWS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
FEED INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
SW TO W WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS
THROUGH MON WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MON
NIGHT. BY TUES THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL GET A PUSH BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH TUES INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AND GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH AN APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE WED. THIS
SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL DRIVE SEAS UP LATE TUES THROUGH WED...UP TO 3 TO
5 FT BY TUES EVE AND THEN REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS BY WED. THE SEAS
SHOULD PEAK WED NIGHT UP AROUND 7 FT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER THIS EVE. AS THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDWEST STATES THIS EVE...IT WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER
WINDS TO DEVELOP SOONER. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA BY SAT MORNING AND BY THAT TIME...A WEDGE WILL BE JUST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHICH WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT
TO ALMOST PINCHED. THUS...WINDS SHOULD BE HIGHER AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE OF UP TO 15 TO
20 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NNE TO NE. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS EVE AND
TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF LONG BAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO 3 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 272037
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
337 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. DRY
BUT CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE BEGINNING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
WITH SOME MID 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS THIS COLD HIGH BUILDS STRONGLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO
BECOME ELEVATED. NNE TO NE WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THEN THEY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVE. THESE WINDS
SHOULD AID IN ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE TEMP DROP WILL BE MODERATED BY THE ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AROUND.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SHOWING A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING 1000 TO 1500 FT AGL AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND ALLOWS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
FEED INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
SW TO W WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS
THROUGH MON WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MON
NIGHT. BY TUES THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL GET A PUSH BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH TUES INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AND GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH AN APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE WED. THIS
SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL DRIVE SEAS UP LATE TUES THROUGH WED...UP TO 3 TO
5 FT BY TUES EVE AND THEN REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS BY WED. THE SEAS
SHOULD PEAK WED NIGHT UP AROUND 7 FT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER THIS EVE. AS THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDWEST STATES THIS EVE...IT WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER
WINDS TO DEVELOP SOONER. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA BY SAT MORNING AND BY THAT TIME...A WEDGE WILL BE JUST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHICH WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT
TO ALMOST PINCHED. THUS...WINDS SHOULD BE HIGHER AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE OF UP TO 15 TO
20 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NNE TO NE. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS EVE AND
TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF LONG BAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO 3 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43







000
FXUS62 KILM 271901
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
202 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING
A STRONG WEDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY...BUT CHILLY...
WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE BEGINNING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
WITH SOME MID 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS THIS COLD HIGH BUILDS STRONGLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO
BECOME ELEVATED. NNE TO NE WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THEN THEY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVE. THESE WINDS
SHOULD AID IN ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE TEMP DROP WILL BE MODERATED BY THE ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AROUND.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SHOWING A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING 1000 TO 1500 FT AGL AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND ALLOWS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
FEED INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH
THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO
COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO
WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP
SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY
AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST
FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW
THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE CIRRUS IS WANING WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLE ONLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A 5K DECK OF STRATOCU JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. THIS COULD GO BROKEN AT FLO AND LBT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT MAY PICK UP
SLIGHTLY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP. RETURN
HIGH CLOUD MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE MID
CLOUD CEILING AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER THIS EVE. AS THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDWEST STATES THIS EVE...IT WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER
WINDS TO DEVELOP SOONER. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA BY SAT MORNING AND BY THAT TIME...A WEDGE WILL BE JUST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHICH WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT
TO ALMOST PINCHED. THUS...WINDS SHOULD BE HIGHER AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE OF UP TO 15 TO
20 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NNE TO NE. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS EVE AND
TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF LONG BAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO 3 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO
10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY
ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE
REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF
SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT
MOST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43






000
FXUS62 KILM 271901
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
202 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING
A STRONG WEDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY...BUT CHILLY...
WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE BEGINNING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
WITH SOME MID 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS THIS COLD HIGH BUILDS STRONGLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO
BECOME ELEVATED. NNE TO NE WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THEN THEY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVE. THESE WINDS
SHOULD AID IN ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE TEMP DROP WILL BE MODERATED BY THE ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AROUND.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SHOWING A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING 1000 TO 1500 FT AGL AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND ALLOWS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
FEED INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH
THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO
COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO
WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP
SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY
AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST
FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW
THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE CIRRUS IS WANING WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLE ONLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A 5K DECK OF STRATOCU JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. THIS COULD GO BROKEN AT FLO AND LBT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT MAY PICK UP
SLIGHTLY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP. RETURN
HIGH CLOUD MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE MID
CLOUD CEILING AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER THIS EVE. AS THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDWEST STATES THIS EVE...IT WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER
WINDS TO DEVELOP SOONER. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA BY SAT MORNING AND BY THAT TIME...A WEDGE WILL BE JUST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHICH WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT
TO ALMOST PINCHED. THUS...WINDS SHOULD BE HIGHER AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE OF UP TO 15 TO
20 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NNE TO NE. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS EVE AND
TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF LONG BAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO 3 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO
10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY
ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE
REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF
SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT
MOST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43






000
FXUS62 KILM 271901
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
202 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING
A STRONG WEDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY...BUT CHILLY...
WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE BEGINNING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
WITH SOME MID 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS THIS COLD HIGH BUILDS STRONGLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO
BECOME ELEVATED. NNE TO NE WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THEN THEY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVE. THESE WINDS
SHOULD AID IN ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE TEMP DROP WILL BE MODERATED BY THE ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AROUND.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SHOWING A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING 1000 TO 1500 FT AGL AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND ALLOWS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
FEED INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH
THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO
COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO
WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP
SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY
AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST
FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW
THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE CIRRUS IS WANING WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLE ONLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A 5K DECK OF STRATOCU JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. THIS COULD GO BROKEN AT FLO AND LBT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT MAY PICK UP
SLIGHTLY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP. RETURN
HIGH CLOUD MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE MID
CLOUD CEILING AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER THIS EVE. AS THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDWEST STATES THIS EVE...IT WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER
WINDS TO DEVELOP SOONER. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA BY SAT MORNING AND BY THAT TIME...A WEDGE WILL BE JUST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHICH WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT
TO ALMOST PINCHED. THUS...WINDS SHOULD BE HIGHER AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE OF UP TO 15 TO
20 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NNE TO NE. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS EVE AND
TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF LONG BAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO 3 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO
10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY
ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE
REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF
SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT
MOST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43







000
FXUS62 KILM 271901
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
202 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING
A STRONG WEDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY...BUT CHILLY...
WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE BEGINNING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
WITH SOME MID 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS THIS COLD HIGH BUILDS STRONGLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO
BECOME ELEVATED. NNE TO NE WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THEN THEY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVE. THESE WINDS
SHOULD AID IN ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE TEMP DROP WILL BE MODERATED BY THE ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AROUND.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SHOWING A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING 1000 TO 1500 FT AGL AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND ALLOWS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
FEED INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH
THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO
COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO
WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP
SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY
AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST
FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW
THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE CIRRUS IS WANING WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLE ONLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A 5K DECK OF STRATOCU JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. THIS COULD GO BROKEN AT FLO AND LBT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT MAY PICK UP
SLIGHTLY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP. RETURN
HIGH CLOUD MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE MID
CLOUD CEILING AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER THIS EVE. AS THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDWEST STATES THIS EVE...IT WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER
WINDS TO DEVELOP SOONER. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA BY SAT MORNING AND BY THAT TIME...A WEDGE WILL BE JUST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHICH WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT
TO ALMOST PINCHED. THUS...WINDS SHOULD BE HIGHER AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE OF UP TO 15 TO
20 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NNE TO NE. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS EVE AND
TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF LONG BAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO 3 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO
10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY
ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE
REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF
SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT
MOST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43







000
FXUS62 KILM 271725
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1224 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
BECOMING A STRONG WEDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY...
BUT CHILLY...WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS COMPLIMENTS OF
LESS CLOUD COVER.

DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM...
FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TEMPS THAN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 50
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSER TO THE MID 40S
WHILE THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE MID 50S. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES
WITH SOME MID 20S IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE MELTING SNOWPACK TO
OUR NORTH.

THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS TODAY WILL MOVE TO PENNSYLVANIA BY MORNING AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH
THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO
COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO
WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP
SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY
AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST
FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW
THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE CIRRUS IS WANING WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLE ONLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A 5K DECK OF STRATOCU JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. THIS COULD GO BROKEN AT FLO AND LBT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT MAY PICK UP
SLIGHTLY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP. RETURN
HIGH CLOUD MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE MID
CLOUD CEILING AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...NO ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WATERS FOR A CHANGE
TODAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS DURING SAT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KT WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
DAY AND THEN INCREASE ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO WITH THE APPROACH OF SAT
MORNING. A SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT...ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO
10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY
ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE
REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF
SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT
MOST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43














000
FXUS62 KILM 271725
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1224 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
BECOMING A STRONG WEDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY...
BUT CHILLY...WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS COMPLIMENTS OF
LESS CLOUD COVER.

DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM...
FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TEMPS THAN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 50
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSER TO THE MID 40S
WHILE THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE MID 50S. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES
WITH SOME MID 20S IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE MELTING SNOWPACK TO
OUR NORTH.

THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS TODAY WILL MOVE TO PENNSYLVANIA BY MORNING AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH
THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO
COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO
WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP
SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY
AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST
FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW
THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE CIRRUS IS WANING WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLE ONLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A 5K DECK OF STRATOCU JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. THIS COULD GO BROKEN AT FLO AND LBT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT MAY PICK UP
SLIGHTLY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP. RETURN
HIGH CLOUD MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE MID
CLOUD CEILING AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...NO ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WATERS FOR A CHANGE
TODAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS DURING SAT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KT WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
DAY AND THEN INCREASE ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO WITH THE APPROACH OF SAT
MORNING. A SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT...ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO
10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY
ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE
REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF
SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT
MOST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43















000
FXUS62 KILM 271455
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
956 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
BECOMING A STRONG WEDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY...
BUT CHILLY...WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM FRIDAY...FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TEMPS THAN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 50
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN REACHES
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSER TO THE MID 40S WHILE THE
FAR SOUTHERN REACHES MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE MID 50S. LOWS TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES WITH
SOME MID 20S IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE MELTING SNOWPACK TO OUR
NORTH.

THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS TODAY WILL MOVE TO PENNSYLVANIA BY MORNING AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH
THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO
COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO
WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP
SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY
AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST
FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW
THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...JET CIRRUS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY MVFR FOG LEFTOVER THIS
MORNING WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
OR NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM FRIDAY...NO ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WATERS FOR A CHANGE
TODAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS DURING SAT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KT WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
DAY AND THEN INCREASE ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO WITH THE APPROACH OF SAT
MORNING. A SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT...ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO
10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY
ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE
REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF
SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT
MOST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KILM 271455
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
956 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
BECOMING A STRONG WEDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY...
BUT CHILLY...WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM FRIDAY...FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TEMPS THAN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 50
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN REACHES
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSER TO THE MID 40S WHILE THE
FAR SOUTHERN REACHES MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE MID 50S. LOWS TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES WITH
SOME MID 20S IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE MELTING SNOWPACK TO OUR
NORTH.

THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS TODAY WILL MOVE TO PENNSYLVANIA BY MORNING AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH
THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO
COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO
WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP
SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY
AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST
FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW
THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...JET CIRRUS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY MVFR FOG LEFTOVER THIS
MORNING WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
OR NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM FRIDAY...NO ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WATERS FOR A CHANGE
TODAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS DURING SAT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KT WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
DAY AND THEN INCREASE ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO WITH THE APPROACH OF SAT
MORNING. A SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT...ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO
10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY
ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE
REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF
SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT
MOST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43












000
FXUS62 KILM 271455
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
956 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
BECOMING A STRONG WEDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY...
BUT CHILLY...WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM FRIDAY...FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TEMPS THAN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 50
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN REACHES
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSER TO THE MID 40S WHILE THE
FAR SOUTHERN REACHES MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE MID 50S. LOWS TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES WITH
SOME MID 20S IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE MELTING SNOWPACK TO OUR
NORTH.

THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS TODAY WILL MOVE TO PENNSYLVANIA BY MORNING AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH
THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO
COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO
WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP
SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY
AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST
FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW
THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...JET CIRRUS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY MVFR FOG LEFTOVER THIS
MORNING WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
OR NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM FRIDAY...NO ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WATERS FOR A CHANGE
TODAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS DURING SAT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KT WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
DAY AND THEN INCREASE ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO WITH THE APPROACH OF SAT
MORNING. A SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT...ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO
10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY
ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE
REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF
SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT
MOST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43












000
FXUS62 KILM 271455
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
956 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
BECOMING A STRONG WEDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY...
BUT CHILLY...WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM FRIDAY...FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TEMPS THAN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 50
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN REACHES
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSER TO THE MID 40S WHILE THE
FAR SOUTHERN REACHES MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE MID 50S. LOWS TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES WITH
SOME MID 20S IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE MELTING SNOWPACK TO OUR
NORTH.

THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS TODAY WILL MOVE TO PENNSYLVANIA BY MORNING AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH
THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO
COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO
WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP
SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY
AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST
FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW
THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...JET CIRRUS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY MVFR FOG LEFTOVER THIS
MORNING WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
OR NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM FRIDAY...NO ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WATERS FOR A CHANGE
TODAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS DURING SAT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KT WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
DAY AND THEN INCREASE ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO WITH THE APPROACH OF SAT
MORNING. A SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT...ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO
10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY
ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE
REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF
SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT
MOST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KILM 271112
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
612 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TODAY...BECOMING A STRONG WEDGE
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY BUT COLD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA BELOW FREEZING...THE MIST COULD
PRODUCE A LIGHT GLAZE ON AREA ROAD...MAINLY BRIDGES. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MINS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH
THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO
COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO
WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP
SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY
AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST
FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW
THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...JET CIRRUS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY MVFR FOG LEFTOVER THIS
MORNING WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
OR NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...SEAS OVER NORTHERN WATERS HAVE ABATED
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SCEC TO COME DOWN.  EXPECT N TO NE WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...INVOF 15 KT TODAY AND INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT
TONIGHT...PERHAPS 25 KT LATE. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT TODAY WILL RAMP
UP TOWARD SCA LEVELS OF 4 TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO
10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY
ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE
REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF
SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT
MOST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RAN
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...JDW/RAN









000
FXUS62 KILM 271112
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
612 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TODAY...BECOMING A STRONG WEDGE
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY BUT COLD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA BELOW FREEZING...THE MIST COULD
PRODUCE A LIGHT GLAZE ON AREA ROAD...MAINLY BRIDGES. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MINS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH
THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO
COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO
WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP
SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY
AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST
FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW
THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...JET CIRRUS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY MVFR FOG LEFTOVER THIS
MORNING WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
OR NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...SEAS OVER NORTHERN WATERS HAVE ABATED
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SCEC TO COME DOWN.  EXPECT N TO NE WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...INVOF 15 KT TODAY AND INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT
TONIGHT...PERHAPS 25 KT LATE. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT TODAY WILL RAMP
UP TOWARD SCA LEVELS OF 4 TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO
10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY
ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE
REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF
SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT
MOST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RAN
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...JDW/RAN








000
FXUS62 KILM 271049
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
550 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TODAY...BECOMING A STRONG WEDGE
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY BUT COLD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA BELOW FREEZING...THE MIST COULD
PRODUCE A LIGHT GLAZE ON AREA ROAD...MAINLY BRIDGES. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MINS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH
THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO
COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO
WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP
SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY
AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST
FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW
THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...JET CIRRUS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY MVFR FOG LEFTOVER THIS
MORNING WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
OR NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WILL EXTEND SCEC NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH
MID MORNING FOR SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD INVOF 15 KT TODAY AND INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT
TONIGHT...PERHAPS 25 KT LATE. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT SHOULD DIMINISH TO
3 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RAMPING UP TOWARD SCA LEVELS OF 4
TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO
10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY
ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE
REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF
SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT
MOST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RAN
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...JDW/RAN












000
FXUS62 KILM 270855
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
355 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TODAY...BECOMING A STRONG WEDGE
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY BUT COLD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA BELOW FREEZING...THE MIST COULD
PRODUCE A LIGHT GLAZE ON AREA ROAD...MAINLY BRIDGES. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MINS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH
THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO
COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO
WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP
SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY
AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST
FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW
THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE
AREAS OF FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD IN.

WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS...SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS NOTED IN RECENT
OBS MAY BE THE SIGNAL THAT THESE CONDITIONS ARE COMING TO AN END.
TAFS DO CARRY TEMPO MVFR CIGS TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING LOWER CIGS
THROUGH 09Z OR SO.  WHILE IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT...ANTICIPATE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TO OVERALL INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE KEPT TEMPO WITH
FOG IN GOING FORECAST JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.

AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WILL EXTEND SCEC NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH
MID MORNING FOR SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD INVOF 15 KT TODAY AND INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT
TONIGHT...PERHAPS 25 KT LATE. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT SHOULD DIMINISH TO
3 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RAMPING UP TOWARD SCA LEVELS OF 4
TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO
10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY
ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE
REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF
SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT
MOST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RAN
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RAN
MARINE...JDW/RAN









000
FXUS62 KILM 270855
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
355 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TODAY...BECOMING A STRONG WEDGE
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY BUT COLD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA BELOW FREEZING...THE MIST COULD
PRODUCE A LIGHT GLAZE ON AREA ROAD...MAINLY BRIDGES. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MINS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH
THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO
COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO
WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP
SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY
AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST
FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW
THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE
AREAS OF FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD IN.

WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS...SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS NOTED IN RECENT
OBS MAY BE THE SIGNAL THAT THESE CONDITIONS ARE COMING TO AN END.
TAFS DO CARRY TEMPO MVFR CIGS TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING LOWER CIGS
THROUGH 09Z OR SO.  WHILE IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT...ANTICIPATE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TO OVERALL INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE KEPT TEMPO WITH
FOG IN GOING FORECAST JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.

AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WILL EXTEND SCEC NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH
MID MORNING FOR SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD INVOF 15 KT TODAY AND INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT
TONIGHT...PERHAPS 25 KT LATE. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT SHOULD DIMINISH TO
3 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RAMPING UP TOWARD SCA LEVELS OF 4
TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY
HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO
10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY
ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE
REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF
SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT
MOST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RAN
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RAN
MARINE...JDW/RAN










000
FXUS62 KILM 270534
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1234 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD AIR ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THROUGH EARLY MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...JUST RECENTLY A NEARLY STATIC T/TD REGIME
ACROSS THE AREA IS SEEING LOWERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS LENDING TO PARTIALLY
CLEAR SKIES IN SPOTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH IS BRINGING
LOWERING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. VISIBILITIES WERE LOWERING BELOW
10NM MILES IN A FEW LOCALS AND WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF FG/FZFG
ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...ESPECIALLY SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER N WINDS DO
NOT INCREASE UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SOME DEVELOPING
CONFLUENCE IN THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEDGE TO BUILD DOWN
INTO THE AREA. VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE INTO
THE AREA. WITH THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO BE VERY DRY...POPS SHOULD
NOT BE AN ISSUE ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING.

FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF 50
DEGREES IN WILMINGTON. BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE 49. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MIDDLE 20S SEEM OK FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER VS FRIDAY AS THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 IN NORTHERN AREAS. FINALLY SUNDAY MORNING GUIDANCE IS IN
TWO DISTINCT CAMPS WITH THE MET SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER VS
THE MAV. I LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE MODIFIED MET CITING
OVERCAST SKIES...WHICH ARE DEPICTED BY THE GUIDANCE USUALLY WARRANTS
GUIDANCE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND COOL BUT LARGELY
RAIN-FREE AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, ITS MAIN CENTER DRIFTING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.  THE
WEDGE LIFTS OUT SUNDAY  NIGHT AS THE HIGH MORE OR LESS BIFURCATES.
BY 12Z MONDAY ONLY THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE CENTER REMAINS AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. AS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS MEX
GUIDANCE IS NOW 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOLAR INSOLATION TO AID IN THERMAL ADVECTION. EVEN
SO MONDAY WILL END UP BEING CLOSER TO CLIMO HIGHS THAN THE AREA HAS
SEEN IN SOME TIME MAKING UPPER 50S FEEL WELCOME. WILL TRIM SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THOSE VALUES. TUESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND NOW DOESN`T LOOK
QUITE AS COLD AND WEDGE-LIKE BEHIND THE MONDAY COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY HIGHS MAY BE CLOSE TO
THOSE OF MONDAY. THIS WEAK WEDGE WASHES OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER BOUNDARY EN ROUTE FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. A DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND WE SHALL FINALLY
SEE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON DESPITE WHAT MAY BE A RATHER
CLOUDY DAY. IN FACT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS I`D LOVE TO BELIEVE THE
MEX NUMBERS THAT SHOW ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
HITTING A HIGH OF 80 OR BETTER-BUT I DON`T. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
12C AND LAPSE RATES A BIT STEEPER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LOW 70S SEEM
MUCH MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE
AREAS OF FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD IN.

WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS...SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS NOTED IN RECENT
OBS MAY BE THE SIGNAL THAT THESE CONDITIONS ARE COMING TO AN END.
TAFS DO CARRY TEMPO MVFR CIGS TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING LOWER CIGS
THROUGH 09Z OR SO.  WHILE IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT...ANTICIPATE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TO OVERALL INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE KEPT TEMPO WITH
FOG IN GOING FORECAST JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.

AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...ALL ADVISORIES EXPIRES AS OF 10 PM AS SEAS
DAMPEN TO LESS THAN 6 FT. FRYING PAN 6.9 FEET AT 10 SECONDS BUT
THE LONGER PERIOD ENERGY WILL DECAY ONTO THE SHELF. WILL NEED TO
REPLACE NC WATERS WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT HOWEVER SINCE
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIR FRISKY FROM THE N OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ELEVATED SEAS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BE
THE COMMON FACTOR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. FOR FRIDAY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY NORTH DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. SOME VEERING TO TO NORTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS MORE OF A WEDGE CONFIGURATION
DEVELOPS. WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 2-4
FEET FRIDAY TO 3-6 FEET EARLY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN THESE HEIGHTS
THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE IN ORDER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST SO DESPITE SOME SWELL ENERGY
MIXING IN WITH THE WIND WAVES OVERALL SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH NO HEADLINES OR FLAGS IN EFFECT.
TROUGHINESS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THIS WEDGE AND THE WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FORMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE GONE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TURN TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A VEER TO THE NW MIDDAY MONDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AND DOMINANT PERIOD MAY SHORTEN SOME AS SWELL
ENERGY ABATES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
HIGH WEDGES UP AGAINST THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND AN AXIS
OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SWELL AND WIND WAVE COULD BUMP SEAS UP BUT STILL NO
HAZARDS/HEADLINES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...31








000
FXUS62 KILM 270534
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1234 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD AIR ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THROUGH EARLY MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...JUST RECENTLY A NEARLY STATIC T/TD REGIME
ACROSS THE AREA IS SEEING LOWERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS LENDING TO PARTIALLY
CLEAR SKIES IN SPOTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH IS BRINGING
LOWERING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. VISIBILITIES WERE LOWERING BELOW
10NM MILES IN A FEW LOCALS AND WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF FG/FZFG
ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...ESPECIALLY SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER N WINDS DO
NOT INCREASE UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SOME DEVELOPING
CONFLUENCE IN THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEDGE TO BUILD DOWN
INTO THE AREA. VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE INTO
THE AREA. WITH THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO BE VERY DRY...POPS SHOULD
NOT BE AN ISSUE ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING.

FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF 50
DEGREES IN WILMINGTON. BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE 49. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MIDDLE 20S SEEM OK FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER VS FRIDAY AS THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 IN NORTHERN AREAS. FINALLY SUNDAY MORNING GUIDANCE IS IN
TWO DISTINCT CAMPS WITH THE MET SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER VS
THE MAV. I LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE MODIFIED MET CITING
OVERCAST SKIES...WHICH ARE DEPICTED BY THE GUIDANCE USUALLY WARRANTS
GUIDANCE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND COOL BUT LARGELY
RAIN-FREE AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, ITS MAIN CENTER DRIFTING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.  THE
WEDGE LIFTS OUT SUNDAY  NIGHT AS THE HIGH MORE OR LESS BIFURCATES.
BY 12Z MONDAY ONLY THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE CENTER REMAINS AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. AS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS MEX
GUIDANCE IS NOW 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOLAR INSOLATION TO AID IN THERMAL ADVECTION. EVEN
SO MONDAY WILL END UP BEING CLOSER TO CLIMO HIGHS THAN THE AREA HAS
SEEN IN SOME TIME MAKING UPPER 50S FEEL WELCOME. WILL TRIM SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THOSE VALUES. TUESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND NOW DOESN`T LOOK
QUITE AS COLD AND WEDGE-LIKE BEHIND THE MONDAY COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY HIGHS MAY BE CLOSE TO
THOSE OF MONDAY. THIS WEAK WEDGE WASHES OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER BOUNDARY EN ROUTE FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. A DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND WE SHALL FINALLY
SEE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON DESPITE WHAT MAY BE A RATHER
CLOUDY DAY. IN FACT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS I`D LOVE TO BELIEVE THE
MEX NUMBERS THAT SHOW ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
HITTING A HIGH OF 80 OR BETTER-BUT I DON`T. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
12C AND LAPSE RATES A BIT STEEPER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LOW 70S SEEM
MUCH MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE
AREAS OF FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD IN.

WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS...SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS NOTED IN RECENT
OBS MAY BE THE SIGNAL THAT THESE CONDITIONS ARE COMING TO AN END.
TAFS DO CARRY TEMPO MVFR CIGS TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING LOWER CIGS
THROUGH 09Z OR SO.  WHILE IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT...ANTICIPATE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TO OVERALL INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE KEPT TEMPO WITH
FOG IN GOING FORECAST JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.

AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...ALL ADVISORIES EXPIRES AS OF 10 PM AS SEAS
DAMPEN TO LESS THAN 6 FT. FRYING PAN 6.9 FEET AT 10 SECONDS BUT
THE LONGER PERIOD ENERGY WILL DECAY ONTO THE SHELF. WILL NEED TO
REPLACE NC WATERS WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT HOWEVER SINCE
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIR FRISKY FROM THE N OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ELEVATED SEAS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BE
THE COMMON FACTOR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. FOR FRIDAY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY NORTH DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. SOME VEERING TO TO NORTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS MORE OF A WEDGE CONFIGURATION
DEVELOPS. WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 2-4
FEET FRIDAY TO 3-6 FEET EARLY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN THESE HEIGHTS
THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE IN ORDER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST SO DESPITE SOME SWELL ENERGY
MIXING IN WITH THE WIND WAVES OVERALL SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH NO HEADLINES OR FLAGS IN EFFECT.
TROUGHINESS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THIS WEDGE AND THE WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FORMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE GONE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TURN TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A VEER TO THE NW MIDDAY MONDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AND DOMINANT PERIOD MAY SHORTEN SOME AS SWELL
ENERGY ABATES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
HIGH WEDGES UP AGAINST THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND AN AXIS
OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SWELL AND WIND WAVE COULD BUMP SEAS UP BUT STILL NO
HAZARDS/HEADLINES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...31









000
FXUS62 KILM 270305
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1001 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD AIR ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THROUGH EARLY MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...JUST RECENTLY A NEARLY STATIC T/TD REGIME
ACROSS THE AREA IS SEEING LOWERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS LENDING TO PARTIALLY
CLEAR SKIES IN SPOTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH IS BRINGING
LOWERING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. VISIBILITIES WERE LOWERING BELOW
10NM MILES IN A FEW LOCALS AND WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF FG/FZFG
ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...ESPECIALLY SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER N WINDS DO
NOT INCREASE UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SOME DEVELOPING
CONFLUENCE IN THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEDGE TO BUILD DOWN
INTO THE AREA. VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE INTO
THE AREA. WITH THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO BE VERY DRY...POPS SHOULD
NOT BE AN ISSUE ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING.

FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF 50
DEGREES IN WILMINGTON. BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE 49. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MIDDLE 20S SEEM OK FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER VS FRIDAY AS THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 IN NORTHERN AREAS. FINALLY SUNDAY MORNING GUIDANCE IS IN
TWO DISTINCT CAMPS WITH THE MET SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER VS
THE MAV. I LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE MODIFIED MET CITING
OVERCAST SKIES...WHICH ARE DEPICTED BY THE GUIDANCE USUALLY WARRANTS
GUIDANCE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND COOL BUT LARGELY
RAIN-FREE AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, ITS MAIN CENTER DRIFTING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.  THE
WEDGE LIFTS OUT SUNDAY  NIGHT AS THE HIGH MORE OR LESS BIFURCATES.
BY 12Z MONDAY ONLY THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE CENTER REMAINS AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. AS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS MEX
GUIDANCE IS NOW 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOLAR INSOLATION TO AID IN THERMAL ADVECTION. EVEN
SO MONDAY WILL END UP BEING CLOSER TO CLIMO HIGHS THAN THE AREA HAS
SEEN IN SOME TIME MAKING UPPER 50S FEEL WELCOME. WILL TRIM SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THOSE VALUES. TUESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND NOW DOESN`T LOOK
QUITE AS COLD AND WEDGE-LIKE BEHIND THE MONDAY COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY HIGHS MAY BE CLOSE TO
THOSE OF MONDAY. THIS WEAK WEDGE WASHES OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER BOUNDARY EN ROUTE FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. A DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND WE SHALL FINALLY
SEE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON DESPITE WHAT MAY BE A RATHER
CLOUDY DAY. IN FACT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS I`D LOVE TO BELIEVE THE
MEX NUMBERS THAT SHOW ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
HITTING A HIGH OF 80 OR BETTER-BUT I DON`T. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
12C AND LAPSE RATES A BIT STEEPER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LOW 70S SEEM
MUCH MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE AREAS
OF FOG TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD IN.

WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS...WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AS SEEN FROM
LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE ARE CREATING MAINLY MVFR AT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCRE AND KLBT WHERE THERE ARE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. EXPECT THE TREND OF MVFR WITH
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH EVEN LOWER CIGS AND/OR PATCHES OF FOG TO CREATE IFR.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS IN GOING
FORECAST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS
THE AREA LATE OVERNIGHT WELL INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS WILL
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...ALL ADVISORIES EXPIRES AS OF 10 PM AS SEAS
DAMPEN TO LESS THAN 6 FT. FRYING PAN 6.9 FEET AT 10 SECONDS BUT
THE LONGER PERIOD ENERGY WILL DECAY ONTO THE SHELF. WILL NEED TO
REPLACE NC WATERS WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT HOWEVER SINCE
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIR FRISKY FROM THE N OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ELEVATED SEAS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BE THE
COMMON FACTOR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR FRIDAY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY NORTH DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS
OF 15-20 KNOTS. SOME VEERING TO TO NORTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS MORE OF A WEDGE CONFIGURATION
DEVELOPS. WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 2-4
FEET FRIDAY TO 3-6 FEET EARLY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN THESE HEIGHTS
THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE IN ORDER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST SO DESPITE SOME SWELL ENERGY
MIXING IN WITH THE WIND WAVES OVERALL SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH NO HEADLINES OR FLAGS IN EFFECT.
TROUGHINESS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THIS WEDGE AND THE WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FORMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE GONE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TURN TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A VEER TO THE NW MIDDAY MONDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AND DOMINANT PERIOD MAY SHORTEN SOME AS SWELL
ENERGY ABATES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
HIGH WEDGES UP AGAINST THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND AN AXIS
OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SWELL AND WIND WAVE COULD BUMP SEAS UP BUT STILL NO
HAZARDS/HEADLINES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL











000
FXUS62 KILM 270305
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1001 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD AIR ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THROUGH EARLY MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...JUST RECENTLY A NEARLY STATIC T/TD REGIME
ACROSS THE AREA IS SEEING LOWERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS LENDING TO PARTIALLY
CLEAR SKIES IN SPOTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH IS BRINGING
LOWERING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. VISIBILITIES WERE LOWERING BELOW
10NM MILES IN A FEW LOCALS AND WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF FG/FZFG
ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...ESPECIALLY SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER N WINDS DO
NOT INCREASE UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SOME DEVELOPING
CONFLUENCE IN THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEDGE TO BUILD DOWN
INTO THE AREA. VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE INTO
THE AREA. WITH THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO BE VERY DRY...POPS SHOULD
NOT BE AN ISSUE ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING.

FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF 50
DEGREES IN WILMINGTON. BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE 49. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MIDDLE 20S SEEM OK FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER VS FRIDAY AS THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 IN NORTHERN AREAS. FINALLY SUNDAY MORNING GUIDANCE IS IN
TWO DISTINCT CAMPS WITH THE MET SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER VS
THE MAV. I LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE MODIFIED MET CITING
OVERCAST SKIES...WHICH ARE DEPICTED BY THE GUIDANCE USUALLY WARRANTS
GUIDANCE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND COOL BUT LARGELY
RAIN-FREE AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, ITS MAIN CENTER DRIFTING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.  THE
WEDGE LIFTS OUT SUNDAY  NIGHT AS THE HIGH MORE OR LESS BIFURCATES.
BY 12Z MONDAY ONLY THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE CENTER REMAINS AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. AS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS MEX
GUIDANCE IS NOW 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOLAR INSOLATION TO AID IN THERMAL ADVECTION. EVEN
SO MONDAY WILL END UP BEING CLOSER TO CLIMO HIGHS THAN THE AREA HAS
SEEN IN SOME TIME MAKING UPPER 50S FEEL WELCOME. WILL TRIM SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THOSE VALUES. TUESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND NOW DOESN`T LOOK
QUITE AS COLD AND WEDGE-LIKE BEHIND THE MONDAY COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY HIGHS MAY BE CLOSE TO
THOSE OF MONDAY. THIS WEAK WEDGE WASHES OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER BOUNDARY EN ROUTE FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. A DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND WE SHALL FINALLY
SEE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON DESPITE WHAT MAY BE A RATHER
CLOUDY DAY. IN FACT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS I`D LOVE TO BELIEVE THE
MEX NUMBERS THAT SHOW ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
HITTING A HIGH OF 80 OR BETTER-BUT I DON`T. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
12C AND LAPSE RATES A BIT STEEPER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LOW 70S SEEM
MUCH MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE AREAS
OF FOG TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD IN.

WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS...WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AS SEEN FROM
LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE ARE CREATING MAINLY MVFR AT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCRE AND KLBT WHERE THERE ARE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. EXPECT THE TREND OF MVFR WITH
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH EVEN LOWER CIGS AND/OR PATCHES OF FOG TO CREATE IFR.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS IN GOING
FORECAST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS
THE AREA LATE OVERNIGHT WELL INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS WILL
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...ALL ADVISORIES EXPIRES AS OF 10 PM AS SEAS
DAMPEN TO LESS THAN 6 FT. FRYING PAN 6.9 FEET AT 10 SECONDS BUT
THE LONGER PERIOD ENERGY WILL DECAY ONTO THE SHELF. WILL NEED TO
REPLACE NC WATERS WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT HOWEVER SINCE
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIR FRISKY FROM THE N OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ELEVATED SEAS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BE THE
COMMON FACTOR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR FRIDAY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY NORTH DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS
OF 15-20 KNOTS. SOME VEERING TO TO NORTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS MORE OF A WEDGE CONFIGURATION
DEVELOPS. WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 2-4
FEET FRIDAY TO 3-6 FEET EARLY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN THESE HEIGHTS
THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE IN ORDER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST SO DESPITE SOME SWELL ENERGY
MIXING IN WITH THE WIND WAVES OVERALL SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH NO HEADLINES OR FLAGS IN EFFECT.
TROUGHINESS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THIS WEDGE AND THE WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FORMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE GONE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TURN TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A VEER TO THE NW MIDDAY MONDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AND DOMINANT PERIOD MAY SHORTEN SOME AS SWELL
ENERGY ABATES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
HIGH WEDGES UP AGAINST THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND AN AXIS
OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SWELL AND WIND WAVE COULD BUMP SEAS UP BUT STILL NO
HAZARDS/HEADLINES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL










000
FXUS62 KILM 270301
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1001 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD AIR ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THROUGH EARLY MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...JUST RECENTLY A NEARLY STATIC T/TD REGIME
ACROSS THE AREA IS SEEING LOWERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS LENDING TO PARTIALLY
CLEAR SKIES IN SPOTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH IS BRINGING
LOWERING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. VISIBILITIES WERE LOWERING BELOW
10NM MILES IN A FEW LOCALS AND WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF FG/FZFG
ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...ESPECIALLY SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER N WINDS DO
NOT INCREASE UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SOME DEVELOPING
CONFLUENCE IN THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEDGE TO BUILD DOWN
INTO THE AREA. VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE INTO
THE AREA. WITH THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO BE VERY DRY...POPS SHOULD
NOT BE AN ISSUE ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING.

FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF 50
DEGREES IN WILMINGTON. BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE 49. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MIDDLE 20S SEEM OK FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER VS FRIDAY AS THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 IN NORTHERN AREAS. FINALLY SUNDAY MORNING GUIDANCE IS IN
TWO DISTINCT CAMPS WITH THE MET SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER VS
THE MAV. I LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE MODIFIED MET CITING
OVERCAST SKIES...WHICH ARE DEPICTED BY THE GUIDANCE USUALLY WARRANTS
GUIDANCE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND COOL BUT LARGELY
RAIN-FREE AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, ITS MAIN CENTER DRIFTING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.  THE
WEDGE LIFTS OUT SUNDAY  NIGHT AS THE HIGH MORE OR LESS BIFURCATES.
BY 12Z MONDAY ONLY THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE CENTER REMAINS AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. AS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS MEX
GUIDANCE IS NOW 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOLAR INSOLATION TO AID IN THERMAL ADVECTION. EVEN
SO MONDAY WILL END UP BEING CLOSER TO CLIMO HIGHS THAN THE AREA HAS
SEEN IN SOME TIME MAKING UPPER 50S FEEL WELCOME. WILL TRIM SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THOSE VALUES. TUESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND NOW DOESN`T LOOK
QUITE AS COLD AND WEDGE-LIKE BEHIND THE MONDAY COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY HIGHS MAY BE CLOSE TO
THOSE OF MONDAY. THIS WEAK WEDGE WASHES OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER BOUNDARY EN ROUTE FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. A DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND WE SHALL FINALLY
SEE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON DESPITE WHAT MAY BE A RATHER
CLOUDY DAY. IN FACT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS I`D LOVE TO BELIEVE THE
MEX NUMBERS THAT SHOW ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
HITTING A HIGH OF 80 OR BETTER-BUT I DON`T. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
12C AND LAPSE RATES A BIT STEEPER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LOW 70S SEEM
MUCH MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE AREAS
OF FOG TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD IN.

WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS...WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AS SEEN FROM
LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE ARE CREATING MAINLY MVFR AT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCRE AND KLBT WHERE THERE ARE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. EXPECT THE TREND OF MVFR WITH
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH EVEN LOWER CIGS AND/OR PATCHES OF FOG TO CREATE IFR.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS IN GOING
FORECAST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS
THE AREA LATE OVERNIGHT WELL INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS WILL
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...ALL ADVISORIES EXPIRES AS OF 10 PM AS SEAS
DAMPEN TO LESS THAN 6 FT. FRYING PAN 6.9 FEET AT 10 SECONDS BUT
THE LONGER PERIOD ENERGY WILL DECAY ONTO THE SHELF. WILL NEED TO
REPLACE NC WATERS WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT HOWEVER SINCE
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIR FRISKY FROM THE N OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ELEVATED SEAS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BE THE
COMMON FACTOR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR FRIDAY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY NORTH DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS
OF 15-20 KNOTS. SOME VEERING TO TO NORTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS MORE OF A WEDGE CONFIGURATION
DEVELOPS. WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 2-4
FEET FRIDAY TO 3-6 FEET EARLY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN THESE HEIGHTS
THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE IN ORDER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST SO DESPITE SOME SWELL ENERGY
MIXING IN WITH THE WIND WAVES OVERALL SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH NO HEADLINES OR FLAGS IN EFFECT.
TROUGHINESS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THIS WEDGE AND THE WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FORMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE GONE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TURN TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A VEER TO THE NW MIDDAY MONDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AND DOMINANT PERIOD MAY SHORTEN SOME AS SWELL
ENERGY ABATES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
HIGH WEDGES UP AGAINST THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND AN AXIS
OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SWELL AND WIND WAVE COULD BUMP SEAS UP BUT STILL NO
HAZARDS/HEADLINES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 270301
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1001 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD AIR ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THROUGH EARLY MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...JUST RECENTLY A NEARLY STATIC T/TD REGIME
ACROSS THE AREA IS SEEING LOWERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS LENDING TO PARTIALLY
CLEAR SKIES IN SPOTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH IS BRINGING
LOWERING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. VISIBILITIES WERE LOWERING BELOW
10NM MILES IN A FEW LOCALS AND WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF FG/FZFG
ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...ESPECIALLY SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER N WINDS DO
NOT INCREASE UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SOME DEVELOPING
CONFLUENCE IN THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEDGE TO BUILD DOWN
INTO THE AREA. VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE INTO
THE AREA. WITH THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO BE VERY DRY...POPS SHOULD
NOT BE AN ISSUE ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING.

FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF 50
DEGREES IN WILMINGTON. BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE 49. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MIDDLE 20S SEEM OK FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER VS FRIDAY AS THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 IN NORTHERN AREAS. FINALLY SUNDAY MORNING GUIDANCE IS IN
TWO DISTINCT CAMPS WITH THE MET SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER VS
THE MAV. I LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE MODIFIED MET CITING
OVERCAST SKIES...WHICH ARE DEPICTED BY THE GUIDANCE USUALLY WARRANTS
GUIDANCE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND COOL BUT LARGELY
RAIN-FREE AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, ITS MAIN CENTER DRIFTING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.  THE
WEDGE LIFTS OUT SUNDAY  NIGHT AS THE HIGH MORE OR LESS BIFURCATES.
BY 12Z MONDAY ONLY THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE CENTER REMAINS AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. AS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS MEX
GUIDANCE IS NOW 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOLAR INSOLATION TO AID IN THERMAL ADVECTION. EVEN
SO MONDAY WILL END UP BEING CLOSER TO CLIMO HIGHS THAN THE AREA HAS
SEEN IN SOME TIME MAKING UPPER 50S FEEL WELCOME. WILL TRIM SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THOSE VALUES. TUESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND NOW DOESN`T LOOK
QUITE AS COLD AND WEDGE-LIKE BEHIND THE MONDAY COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY HIGHS MAY BE CLOSE TO
THOSE OF MONDAY. THIS WEAK WEDGE WASHES OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER BOUNDARY EN ROUTE FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. A DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND WE SHALL FINALLY
SEE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON DESPITE WHAT MAY BE A RATHER
CLOUDY DAY. IN FACT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS I`D LOVE TO BELIEVE THE
MEX NUMBERS THAT SHOW ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
HITTING A HIGH OF 80 OR BETTER-BUT I DON`T. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
12C AND LAPSE RATES A BIT STEEPER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LOW 70S SEEM
MUCH MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE AREAS
OF FOG TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD IN.

WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS...WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AS SEEN FROM
LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE ARE CREATING MAINLY MVFR AT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCRE AND KLBT WHERE THERE ARE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. EXPECT THE TREND OF MVFR WITH
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH EVEN LOWER CIGS AND/OR PATCHES OF FOG TO CREATE IFR.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS IN GOING
FORECAST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS
THE AREA LATE OVERNIGHT WELL INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS WILL
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...ALL ADVISORIES EXPIRES AS OF 10 PM AS SEAS
DAMPEN TO LESS THAN 6 FT. FRYING PAN 6.9 FEET AT 10 SECONDS BUT
THE LONGER PERIOD ENERGY WILL DECAY ONTO THE SHELF. WILL NEED TO
REPLACE NC WATERS WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT HOWEVER SINCE
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIR FRISKY FROM THE N OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ELEVATED SEAS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BE THE
COMMON FACTOR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR FRIDAY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY NORTH DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS
OF 15-20 KNOTS. SOME VEERING TO TO NORTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS MORE OF A WEDGE CONFIGURATION
DEVELOPS. WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 2-4
FEET FRIDAY TO 3-6 FEET EARLY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN THESE HEIGHTS
THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE IN ORDER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST SO DESPITE SOME SWELL ENERGY
MIXING IN WITH THE WIND WAVES OVERALL SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH NO HEADLINES OR FLAGS IN EFFECT.
TROUGHINESS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THIS WEDGE AND THE WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FORMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE GONE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TURN TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A VEER TO THE NW MIDDAY MONDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AND DOMINANT PERIOD MAY SHORTEN SOME AS SWELL
ENERGY ABATES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
HIGH WEDGES UP AGAINST THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND AN AXIS
OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SWELL AND WIND WAVE COULD BUMP SEAS UP BUT STILL NO
HAZARDS/HEADLINES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 262345
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD AIR ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THROUGH EARLY MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...THE MOST RECENT NEAR TERM DATA BRINGS A
SLOWER DROP IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH EVENING...LIKELY IN
PART TO SUBLIMATION OCCURRING OFF THE UPSTREAM SNOW PACK..THUS
KEEPING DEWPOINT VALUES LOCKED AROUND 32 DEG F GIVE OR TAKE A
DEGREE EVEN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS REQUIRED
A DEGREE OR 2 BUMP UPWARD IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO DAYBREAK
BUT STILL BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS AND RE-FREEZING OF WET AREAS
AND THE BLACK ICE POTENTIAL REMAINS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
AND PLENTIFUL CLOUDS ABOUT THE AREA ARE ALSO AIDING IN SLOW TEMP
DROPS. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PATCHY BLACK ICE AND AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL INCREASE THE RISK
FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRI
MORNING. THE GROUND IS COLD AND WET AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MID TO LATE EVE OR OVERNIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS INCREASE THE PROSPECTS FOR LOW CEILINGS IN STRATUS AND
POOR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND FREEZING FOG. VISIBILITIES OF LESS
THAN 2 MILES IN FOG MAY BECOME QUITE COMMON AND LOCALLY NEAR A
QUARTER-MILE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE HAZARDS.

LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE NE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY
MORNING. DRY AIR IS SCARCE AND IN FACT...MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION REMAINS CLOUDY. A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOCK IN THE THICK CLOUDS INTO FRI MORNING EVEN AS
MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES ABOVE 5-6 KFT.

NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A
PARTICULARLY COLD FLOW GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW-PACK NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
N. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN BELOW FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT IS HIGH.
HOWEVER...THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM GETTING QUITE AS COLD AS THEIR POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...
WE ARE EXPECTING LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SOME DEVELOPING CONFLUENCE
IN THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEDGE TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA.
VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE INTO THE AREA. WITH
THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO BE VERY DRY...POPS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE
ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING.

FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF 50
DEGREES IN WILMINGTON. BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE 49. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MIDDLE 20S SEEM OK FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER VS FRIDAY AS THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 IN NORTHERN AREAS. FINALLY SUNDAY MORNING GUIDANCE IS IN
TWO DISTINCT CAMPS WITH THE MET SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER VS
THE MAV. I LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE MODIFIED MET CITING
OVERCAST SKIES...WHICH ARE DEPICTED BY THE GUIDANCE USUALLY WARRANTS
GUIDANCE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND COOL BUT LARGELY
RAIN-FREE AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, ITS MAIN CENTER DRIFTING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.  THE
WEDGE LIFTS OUT SUNDAY  NIGHT AS THE HIGH MORE OR LESS BIFURCATES.
BY 12Z MONDAY ONLY THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE CENTER REMAINS AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. AS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS MEX
GUIDANCE IS NOW 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOLAR INSOLATION TO AID IN THERMAL ADVECTION. EVEN
SO MONDAY WILL END UP BEING CLOSER TO CLIMO HIGHS THAN THE AREA HAS
SEEN IN SOME TIME MAKING UPPER 50S FEEL WELCOME. WILL TRIM SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THOSE VALUES. TUESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND NOW DOESN`T LOOK
QUITE AS COLD AND WEDGE-LIKE BEHIND THE MONDAY COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY HIGHS MAY BE CLOSE TO
THOSE OF MONDAY. THIS WEAK WEDGE WASHES OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER BOUNDARY EN ROUTE FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. A DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND WE SHALL FINALLY
SEE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON DESPITE WHAT MAY BE A RATHER
CLOUDY DAY. IN FACT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS I`D LOVE TO BELIEVE THE
MEX NUMBERS THAT SHOW ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
HITTING A HIGH OF 80 OR BETTER-BUT I DON`T. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
12C AND LAPSE RATES A BIT STEEPER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LOW 70S SEEM
MUCH MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE AREAS
OF FOG TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD IN.

WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS...WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AS SEEN FROM
LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE ARE CREATING MAINLY MVFR AT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCRE AND KLBT WHERE THERE ARE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. EXPECT THE TREND OF MVFR WITH
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH EVEN LOWER CIGS AND/OR PATCHES OF FOG TO CREATE IFR.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS IN GOING
FORECAST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS
THE AREA LATE OVERNIGHT WELL INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS WILL
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...ADVISORY IN EFFECT ONLY FOR NC AS WINDS
AND SEAS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO EASE...BUT SWELL ENERGY WAS HELPING TO KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED. SEAS WERE 4.5 FT AT WILMINGTON HARBOR AND 7.5 FT AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. THUS...EXTENDING THE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS BY SEVERAL HOURS. WE DO EXPECT SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW 6 FT THROUGHOUT DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVE HOURS. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS AS A NORTHERLY SURGE MOVES DOWN THE COAST...UP TO 15
TO 20 KT.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BE THE
COMMON FACTOR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR FRIDAY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY NORTH DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS
OF 15-20 KNOTS. SOME VEERING TO TO NORTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS MORE OF A WEDGE CONFIGURATION
DEVELOPS. WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 2-4
FEET FRIDAY TO 3-6 FEET EARLY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN THESE HEIGHTS
THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE IN ORDER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST SO DESPITE SOME SWELL ENERGY
MIXING IN WITH THE WIND WAVES OVERALL SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH NO HEADLINES OR FLAGS IN EFFECT.
TROUGHINESS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THIS WEDGE AND THE WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FORMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE GONE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TURN TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A VEER TO THE NW MIDDAY MONDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AND DOMINANT PERIOD MAY SHORTEN SOME AS SWELL
ENERGY ABATES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
HIGH WEDGES UP AGAINST THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND AN AXIS
OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SWELL AND WIND WAVE COULD BUMP SEAS UP BUT STILL NO
HAZARDS/HEADLINES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 262345
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD AIR ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THROUGH EARLY MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...THE MOST RECENT NEAR TERM DATA BRINGS A
SLOWER DROP IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH EVENING...LIKELY IN
PART TO SUBLIMATION OCCURRING OFF THE UPSTREAM SNOW PACK..THUS
KEEPING DEWPOINT VALUES LOCKED AROUND 32 DEG F GIVE OR TAKE A
DEGREE EVEN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS REQUIRED
A DEGREE OR 2 BUMP UPWARD IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO DAYBREAK
BUT STILL BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS AND RE-FREEZING OF WET AREAS
AND THE BLACK ICE POTENTIAL REMAINS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
AND PLENTIFUL CLOUDS ABOUT THE AREA ARE ALSO AIDING IN SLOW TEMP
DROPS. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PATCHY BLACK ICE AND AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL INCREASE THE RISK
FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRI
MORNING. THE GROUND IS COLD AND WET AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MID TO LATE EVE OR OVERNIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS INCREASE THE PROSPECTS FOR LOW CEILINGS IN STRATUS AND
POOR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND FREEZING FOG. VISIBILITIES OF LESS
THAN 2 MILES IN FOG MAY BECOME QUITE COMMON AND LOCALLY NEAR A
QUARTER-MILE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE HAZARDS.

LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE NE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY
MORNING. DRY AIR IS SCARCE AND IN FACT...MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION REMAINS CLOUDY. A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOCK IN THE THICK CLOUDS INTO FRI MORNING EVEN AS
MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES ABOVE 5-6 KFT.

NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A
PARTICULARLY COLD FLOW GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW-PACK NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
N. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN BELOW FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT IS HIGH.
HOWEVER...THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM GETTING QUITE AS COLD AS THEIR POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...
WE ARE EXPECTING LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SOME DEVELOPING CONFLUENCE
IN THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEDGE TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA.
VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE INTO THE AREA. WITH
THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO BE VERY DRY...POPS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE
ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING.

FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF 50
DEGREES IN WILMINGTON. BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE 49. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MIDDLE 20S SEEM OK FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER VS FRIDAY AS THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 IN NORTHERN AREAS. FINALLY SUNDAY MORNING GUIDANCE IS IN
TWO DISTINCT CAMPS WITH THE MET SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER VS
THE MAV. I LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE MODIFIED MET CITING
OVERCAST SKIES...WHICH ARE DEPICTED BY THE GUIDANCE USUALLY WARRANTS
GUIDANCE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND COOL BUT LARGELY
RAIN-FREE AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, ITS MAIN CENTER DRIFTING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.  THE
WEDGE LIFTS OUT SUNDAY  NIGHT AS THE HIGH MORE OR LESS BIFURCATES.
BY 12Z MONDAY ONLY THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE CENTER REMAINS AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. AS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS MEX
GUIDANCE IS NOW 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOLAR INSOLATION TO AID IN THERMAL ADVECTION. EVEN
SO MONDAY WILL END UP BEING CLOSER TO CLIMO HIGHS THAN THE AREA HAS
SEEN IN SOME TIME MAKING UPPER 50S FEEL WELCOME. WILL TRIM SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THOSE VALUES. TUESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND NOW DOESN`T LOOK
QUITE AS COLD AND WEDGE-LIKE BEHIND THE MONDAY COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY HIGHS MAY BE CLOSE TO
THOSE OF MONDAY. THIS WEAK WEDGE WASHES OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER BOUNDARY EN ROUTE FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. A DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND WE SHALL FINALLY
SEE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON DESPITE WHAT MAY BE A RATHER
CLOUDY DAY. IN FACT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS I`D LOVE TO BELIEVE THE
MEX NUMBERS THAT SHOW ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
HITTING A HIGH OF 80 OR BETTER-BUT I DON`T. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
12C AND LAPSE RATES A BIT STEEPER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LOW 70S SEEM
MUCH MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE AREAS
OF FOG TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD IN.

WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS...WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AS SEEN FROM
LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE ARE CREATING MAINLY MVFR AT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCRE AND KLBT WHERE THERE ARE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. EXPECT THE TREND OF MVFR WITH
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH EVEN LOWER CIGS AND/OR PATCHES OF FOG TO CREATE IFR.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS IN GOING
FORECAST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS
THE AREA LATE OVERNIGHT WELL INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS WILL
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...ADVISORY IN EFFECT ONLY FOR NC AS WINDS
AND SEAS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO EASE...BUT SWELL ENERGY WAS HELPING TO KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED. SEAS WERE 4.5 FT AT WILMINGTON HARBOR AND 7.5 FT AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. THUS...EXTENDING THE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS BY SEVERAL HOURS. WE DO EXPECT SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW 6 FT THROUGHOUT DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVE HOURS. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS AS A NORTHERLY SURGE MOVES DOWN THE COAST...UP TO 15
TO 20 KT.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BE THE
COMMON FACTOR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR FRIDAY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY NORTH DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS
OF 15-20 KNOTS. SOME VEERING TO TO NORTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS MORE OF A WEDGE CONFIGURATION
DEVELOPS. WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 2-4
FEET FRIDAY TO 3-6 FEET EARLY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN THESE HEIGHTS
THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE IN ORDER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST SO DESPITE SOME SWELL ENERGY
MIXING IN WITH THE WIND WAVES OVERALL SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH NO HEADLINES OR FLAGS IN EFFECT.
TROUGHINESS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THIS WEDGE AND THE WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FORMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE GONE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TURN TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A VEER TO THE NW MIDDAY MONDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AND DOMINANT PERIOD MAY SHORTEN SOME AS SWELL
ENERGY ABATES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
HIGH WEDGES UP AGAINST THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND AN AXIS
OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SWELL AND WIND WAVE COULD BUMP SEAS UP BUT STILL NO
HAZARDS/HEADLINES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 262345
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD AIR ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THROUGH EARLY MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...THE MOST RECENT NEAR TERM DATA BRINGS A
SLOWER DROP IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH EVENING...LIKELY IN
PART TO SUBLIMATION OCCURRING OFF THE UPSTREAM SNOW PACK..THUS
KEEPING DEWPOINT VALUES LOCKED AROUND 32 DEG F GIVE OR TAKE A
DEGREE EVEN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS REQUIRED
A DEGREE OR 2 BUMP UPWARD IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO DAYBREAK
BUT STILL BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS AND RE-FREEZING OF WET AREAS
AND THE BLACK ICE POTENTIAL REMAINS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
AND PLENTIFUL CLOUDS ABOUT THE AREA ARE ALSO AIDING IN SLOW TEMP
DROPS. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PATCHY BLACK ICE AND AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL INCREASE THE RISK
FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRI
MORNING. THE GROUND IS COLD AND WET AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MID TO LATE EVE OR OVERNIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS INCREASE THE PROSPECTS FOR LOW CEILINGS IN STRATUS AND
POOR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND FREEZING FOG. VISIBILITIES OF LESS
THAN 2 MILES IN FOG MAY BECOME QUITE COMMON AND LOCALLY NEAR A
QUARTER-MILE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE HAZARDS.

LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE NE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY
MORNING. DRY AIR IS SCARCE AND IN FACT...MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION REMAINS CLOUDY. A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOCK IN THE THICK CLOUDS INTO FRI MORNING EVEN AS
MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES ABOVE 5-6 KFT.

NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A
PARTICULARLY COLD FLOW GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW-PACK NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
N. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN BELOW FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT IS HIGH.
HOWEVER...THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM GETTING QUITE AS COLD AS THEIR POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...
WE ARE EXPECTING LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SOME DEVELOPING CONFLUENCE
IN THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEDGE TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA.
VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE INTO THE AREA. WITH
THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO BE VERY DRY...POPS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE
ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING.

FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF 50
DEGREES IN WILMINGTON. BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE 49. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MIDDLE 20S SEEM OK FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER VS FRIDAY AS THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 IN NORTHERN AREAS. FINALLY SUNDAY MORNING GUIDANCE IS IN
TWO DISTINCT CAMPS WITH THE MET SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER VS
THE MAV. I LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE MODIFIED MET CITING
OVERCAST SKIES...WHICH ARE DEPICTED BY THE GUIDANCE USUALLY WARRANTS
GUIDANCE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND COOL BUT LARGELY
RAIN-FREE AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, ITS MAIN CENTER DRIFTING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.  THE
WEDGE LIFTS OUT SUNDAY  NIGHT AS THE HIGH MORE OR LESS BIFURCATES.
BY 12Z MONDAY ONLY THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE CENTER REMAINS AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. AS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS MEX
GUIDANCE IS NOW 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOLAR INSOLATION TO AID IN THERMAL ADVECTION. EVEN
SO MONDAY WILL END UP BEING CLOSER TO CLIMO HIGHS THAN THE AREA HAS
SEEN IN SOME TIME MAKING UPPER 50S FEEL WELCOME. WILL TRIM SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THOSE VALUES. TUESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND NOW DOESN`T LOOK
QUITE AS COLD AND WEDGE-LIKE BEHIND THE MONDAY COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY HIGHS MAY BE CLOSE TO
THOSE OF MONDAY. THIS WEAK WEDGE WASHES OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER BOUNDARY EN ROUTE FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. A DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND WE SHALL FINALLY
SEE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON DESPITE WHAT MAY BE A RATHER
CLOUDY DAY. IN FACT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS I`D LOVE TO BELIEVE THE
MEX NUMBERS THAT SHOW ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
HITTING A HIGH OF 80 OR BETTER-BUT I DON`T. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
12C AND LAPSE RATES A BIT STEEPER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LOW 70S SEEM
MUCH MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE AREAS
OF FOG TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD IN.

WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS...WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AS SEEN FROM
LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE ARE CREATING MAINLY MVFR AT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCRE AND KLBT WHERE THERE ARE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. EXPECT THE TREND OF MVFR WITH
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH EVEN LOWER CIGS AND/OR PATCHES OF FOG TO CREATE IFR.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS IN GOING
FORECAST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS
THE AREA LATE OVERNIGHT WELL INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS WILL
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...ADVISORY IN EFFECT ONLY FOR NC AS WINDS
AND SEAS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO EASE...BUT SWELL ENERGY WAS HELPING TO KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED. SEAS WERE 4.5 FT AT WILMINGTON HARBOR AND 7.5 FT AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. THUS...EXTENDING THE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS BY SEVERAL HOURS. WE DO EXPECT SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW 6 FT THROUGHOUT DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVE HOURS. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS AS A NORTHERLY SURGE MOVES DOWN THE COAST...UP TO 15
TO 20 KT.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BE THE
COMMON FACTOR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR FRIDAY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY NORTH DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS
OF 15-20 KNOTS. SOME VEERING TO TO NORTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS MORE OF A WEDGE CONFIGURATION
DEVELOPS. WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 2-4
FEET FRIDAY TO 3-6 FEET EARLY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN THESE HEIGHTS
THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE IN ORDER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST SO DESPITE SOME SWELL ENERGY
MIXING IN WITH THE WIND WAVES OVERALL SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH NO HEADLINES OR FLAGS IN EFFECT.
TROUGHINESS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THIS WEDGE AND THE WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FORMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE GONE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TURN TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A VEER TO THE NW MIDDAY MONDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AND DOMINANT PERIOD MAY SHORTEN SOME AS SWELL
ENERGY ABATES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
HIGH WEDGES UP AGAINST THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND AN AXIS
OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SWELL AND WIND WAVE COULD BUMP SEAS UP BUT STILL NO
HAZARDS/HEADLINES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 262345
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD AIR ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THROUGH EARLY MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...THE MOST RECENT NEAR TERM DATA BRINGS A
SLOWER DROP IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH EVENING...LIKELY IN
PART TO SUBLIMATION OCCURRING OFF THE UPSTREAM SNOW PACK..THUS
KEEPING DEWPOINT VALUES LOCKED AROUND 32 DEG F GIVE OR TAKE A
DEGREE EVEN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS REQUIRED
A DEGREE OR 2 BUMP UPWARD IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO DAYBREAK
BUT STILL BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS AND RE-FREEZING OF WET AREAS
AND THE BLACK ICE POTENTIAL REMAINS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
AND PLENTIFUL CLOUDS ABOUT THE AREA ARE ALSO AIDING IN SLOW TEMP
DROPS. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PATCHY BLACK ICE AND AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL INCREASE THE RISK
FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRI
MORNING. THE GROUND IS COLD AND WET AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MID TO LATE EVE OR OVERNIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS INCREASE THE PROSPECTS FOR LOW CEILINGS IN STRATUS AND
POOR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND FREEZING FOG. VISIBILITIES OF LESS
THAN 2 MILES IN FOG MAY BECOME QUITE COMMON AND LOCALLY NEAR A
QUARTER-MILE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE HAZARDS.

LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE NE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY
MORNING. DRY AIR IS SCARCE AND IN FACT...MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION REMAINS CLOUDY. A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOCK IN THE THICK CLOUDS INTO FRI MORNING EVEN AS
MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES ABOVE 5-6 KFT.

NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A
PARTICULARLY COLD FLOW GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW-PACK NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
N. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN BELOW FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT IS HIGH.
HOWEVER...THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM GETTING QUITE AS COLD AS THEIR POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...
WE ARE EXPECTING LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SOME DEVELOPING CONFLUENCE
IN THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEDGE TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA.
VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE INTO THE AREA. WITH
THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO BE VERY DRY...POPS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE
ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING.

FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF 50
DEGREES IN WILMINGTON. BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE 49. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MIDDLE 20S SEEM OK FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER VS FRIDAY AS THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 IN NORTHERN AREAS. FINALLY SUNDAY MORNING GUIDANCE IS IN
TWO DISTINCT CAMPS WITH THE MET SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER VS
THE MAV. I LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE MODIFIED MET CITING
OVERCAST SKIES...WHICH ARE DEPICTED BY THE GUIDANCE USUALLY WARRANTS
GUIDANCE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND COOL BUT LARGELY
RAIN-FREE AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, ITS MAIN CENTER DRIFTING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.  THE
WEDGE LIFTS OUT SUNDAY  NIGHT AS THE HIGH MORE OR LESS BIFURCATES.
BY 12Z MONDAY ONLY THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE CENTER REMAINS AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. AS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS MEX
GUIDANCE IS NOW 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOLAR INSOLATION TO AID IN THERMAL ADVECTION. EVEN
SO MONDAY WILL END UP BEING CLOSER TO CLIMO HIGHS THAN THE AREA HAS
SEEN IN SOME TIME MAKING UPPER 50S FEEL WELCOME. WILL TRIM SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THOSE VALUES. TUESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND NOW DOESN`T LOOK
QUITE AS COLD AND WEDGE-LIKE BEHIND THE MONDAY COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY HIGHS MAY BE CLOSE TO
THOSE OF MONDAY. THIS WEAK WEDGE WASHES OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER BOUNDARY EN ROUTE FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. A DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND WE SHALL FINALLY
SEE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON DESPITE WHAT MAY BE A RATHER
CLOUDY DAY. IN FACT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS I`D LOVE TO BELIEVE THE
MEX NUMBERS THAT SHOW ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
HITTING A HIGH OF 80 OR BETTER-BUT I DON`T. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
12C AND LAPSE RATES A BIT STEEPER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LOW 70S SEEM
MUCH MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE AREAS
OF FOG TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD IN.

WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS...WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AS SEEN FROM
LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE ARE CREATING MAINLY MVFR AT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCRE AND KLBT WHERE THERE ARE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. EXPECT THE TREND OF MVFR WITH
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH EVEN LOWER CIGS AND/OR PATCHES OF FOG TO CREATE IFR.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS IN GOING
FORECAST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS
THE AREA LATE OVERNIGHT WELL INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS WILL
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...ADVISORY IN EFFECT ONLY FOR NC AS WINDS
AND SEAS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO EASE...BUT SWELL ENERGY WAS HELPING TO KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED. SEAS WERE 4.5 FT AT WILMINGTON HARBOR AND 7.5 FT AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. THUS...EXTENDING THE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS BY SEVERAL HOURS. WE DO EXPECT SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW 6 FT THROUGHOUT DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVE HOURS. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS AS A NORTHERLY SURGE MOVES DOWN THE COAST...UP TO 15
TO 20 KT.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BE THE
COMMON FACTOR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR FRIDAY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY NORTH DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS
OF 15-20 KNOTS. SOME VEERING TO TO NORTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS MORE OF A WEDGE CONFIGURATION
DEVELOPS. WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 2-4
FEET FRIDAY TO 3-6 FEET EARLY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN THESE HEIGHTS
THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE IN ORDER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST SO DESPITE SOME SWELL ENERGY
MIXING IN WITH THE WIND WAVES OVERALL SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH NO HEADLINES OR FLAGS IN EFFECT.
TROUGHINESS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THIS WEDGE AND THE WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FORMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE GONE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TURN TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A VEER TO THE NW MIDDAY MONDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AND DOMINANT PERIOD MAY SHORTEN SOME AS SWELL
ENERGY ABATES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
HIGH WEDGES UP AGAINST THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND AN AXIS
OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SWELL AND WIND WAVE COULD BUMP SEAS UP BUT STILL NO
HAZARDS/HEADLINES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 262004
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AND BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD AIR
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY
ARRIVE AS WE WELCOME IN THE MONTH OF MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...PATCHY BLACK ICE AND AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING. THE GROUND IS COLD AND WET AND
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MID TO LATE EVE OR
OVERNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS INCREASE THE PROSPECTS FOR LOW CEILINGS
IN STRATUS AND POOR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND FREEZING FOG.
VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN 2 MILES IN FOG MAY BECOME QUITE COMMON AND
LOCALLY NEAR A QUARTER-MILE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE
HAZARDS.

LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE NE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY
MORNING. DRY AIR IS SCARCE AND IN FACT...MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION REMAINS CLOUDY. A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOCK IN THE THICK CLOUDS INTO FRI MORNING EVEN AS
MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES ABOVE 5-6 KFT.

NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A
PARTICULARLY COLD FLOW GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
N. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN BELOW FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT IS HIGH.
HOWEVER...THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM GETTING QUITE AS COLD AS THEIR POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...
WE ARE EXPECTING LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SOME DEVELOPING CONFLUENCE
IN THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEDGE TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA.
VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE INTO THE AREA. WITH
THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO BE VERY DRY...POPS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE
ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING.

FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF 50
DEGREES IN WILMINGTON. BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE 49. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MIDDLE 20S SEEM OK FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER VS FRIDAY AS THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 IN NORTHERN AREAS. FINALLY SUNDAY MORNING GUIDANCE IS IN
TWO DISTINCT CAMPS WITH THE MET SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER VS
THE MAV. I LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE MODIFIED MET CITING
OVERCAST SKIES...WHICH ARE DEPICTED BY THE GUIDANCE USUALLY WARRANTS
GUIDANCE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND COOL BUT LARGELY
RAIN-FREE AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, ITS MAIN CENTER DRIFTING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.  THE
WEDGE LIFTS OUT SUNDAY  NIGHT AS THE HIGH MORE OR LESS BIFURCATES.
BY 12Z MONDAY ONLY THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE CENTER REMAINS AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. AS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS MEX
GUIDANCE IS NOW 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOLAR INSOLATION TO AID IN THERMAL ADVECTION. EVEN
SO MONDAY WILL END UP BEING CLOSER TO CLIMO HIGHS THAN THE AREA HAS
SEEN IN SOME TIME MAKING UPPER 50S FEEL WELCOME. WILL TRIM SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THOSE VALUES. TUESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND NOW DOESN`T LOOK
QUITE AS COLD AND WEDGE-LIKE BEHIND THE MONDAY COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY HIGHS MAY BE CLOSE TO
THOSE OF MONDAY. THIS WEAK WEDGE WASHES OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER BOUNDARY EN ROUTE FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. A DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND WE SHALL FINALLY
SEE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON DESPITE WHAT MAY BE A RATHER
CLOUDY DAY. IN FACT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS I`D LOVE TO BELIEVE THE
MEX NUMBERS THAT SHOW ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
HITTING A HIGH OF 80 OR BETTER-BUT I DON`T. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
12C AND LAPSE RATES A BIT STEEPER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LOW 70S SEEM
MUCH MORE PROBABLE.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WHAT LITTLE PRECIP THERE IS ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATE BY 19-20Z. CEILINGS WILL BE
MAINLY MID CLOUD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BACK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIP WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. RAIN COULD BECOME MODERATE TO PERHAPS
HEAVY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS A GIVEN AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS THE PRECIP AND LOW CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SINK
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY 14-15Z...WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH POSSIBLE IFR/MFR CONDITIONS AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT TIL
6 PM FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 10 PM FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX...BUT SWELL ENERGY WAS HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED. IN FACT...SEAS WERE 6 FT AT WILMINGTON HARBOR
AND 9 FT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. THUS...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS BY SEVERAL HOURS. WE DO EXPECT SEAS
WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT THROUGHOUT DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVE HOURS.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS AS A NORTHERLY SURGE MOVES DOWN THE COAST...UP TO 15
TO 20 KT.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BE THE
COMMON FACTOR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR FRIDAY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY NORTH DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS
OF 15-20 KNOTS. SOME VEERING TO TO NORTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS MORE OF A WEDGE CONFIGURATION
DEVELOPS. WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 2-4
FEET FRIDAY TO 3-6 FEET EARLY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN THESE HEIGHTS
THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE IN ORDER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST SO DESPITE SOME SWELL ENERGY
MIXING IN WITH THE WIND WAVES OVERALL SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH NO HEADLINES OR FLAGS IN EFFECT.
TROUGHINESS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THIS WEDGE AND THE WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FORMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE GONE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TURN TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A VEER TO THE NW MIDDAY MONDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AND DOMINANT PERIOD MAY SHORTEN SOME AS SWELL
ENERGY ABATES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
HIGH WEDGES UP AGAINST THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND AN AXIS
OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SWELL AND WIND WAVE COULD BUMP SEAS UP BUT STILL NO
HAZARDS/HEADLINES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254-
     256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 261641
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1140 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD
AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
NEXT WEEK AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE AS WE
WELCOME IN THE MONTH OF MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM THURSDAY...THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY...NO
ICING CONCERNS. THUS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN
DROPPED.

LOW PRESSURE WAS INTENSIFYING OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE...PASSING WELL OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...MORNING
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN
THROUGH THE DAY AND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME
DRIER AIR MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

BRISK NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS A FRESH
SNOWPACK TO OUR NORTH. THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE TODAY. WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREA MAY REACH THE
MID 40S LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD COMMONLY BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
THE NEW GUIDANCE PACKAGE ARRIVES. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON ROADAYS
AND WALKWAYS WILL FREEZE TONIGHT. BRIDGES WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ICING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY. THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN
A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE PAST 8 HOURS. LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH ALL
THE RAIN OVER THE REGION...THINK SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE
WINDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 5 KTS...SO HOPEFULLY NO WORSE THAN 5SM
VISIBILITY. FRIDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH A NORTHEAST
WIND...GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A WEDGE
SETTING UP.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL
UNDERWAY WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT AT THE MASONBORO BUOY THIS MORNING AND
10 FT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. THE WIND DIRECTION HAS BACKED FROM NE
TO N AND NNW AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO
PULL OUT...BUT STILL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 TO 30 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL











000
FXUS62 KILM 261641
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1140 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD
AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
NEXT WEEK AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE AS WE
WELCOME IN THE MONTH OF MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM THURSDAY...THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY...NO
ICING CONCERNS. THUS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN
DROPPED.

LOW PRESSURE WAS INTENSIFYING OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE...PASSING WELL OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...MORNING
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN
THROUGH THE DAY AND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME
DRIER AIR MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

BRISK NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS A FRESH
SNOWPACK TO OUR NORTH. THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE TODAY. WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREA MAY REACH THE
MID 40S LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD COMMONLY BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
THE NEW GUIDANCE PACKAGE ARRIVES. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON ROADAYS
AND WALKWAYS WILL FREEZE TONIGHT. BRIDGES WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ICING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY. THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN
A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE PAST 8 HOURS. LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH ALL
THE RAIN OVER THE REGION...THINK SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE
WINDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 5 KTS...SO HOPEFULLY NO WORSE THAN 5SM
VISIBILITY. FRIDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH A NORTHEAST
WIND...GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A WEDGE
SETTING UP.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL
UNDERWAY WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT AT THE MASONBORO BUOY THIS MORNING AND
10 FT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. THE WIND DIRECTION HAS BACKED FROM NE
TO N AND NNW AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO
PULL OUT...BUT STILL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 TO 30 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL












000
FXUS62 KILM 261438
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
938 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD
AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
NEXT WEEK AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE AS WE
WELCOME IN THE MONTH OF MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM THURSDAY...THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY...NO
ICING CONCERNS. THUS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN
DROPPED.

LOW PRESSURE WAS INTENSIFYING OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE...PASSING WELL OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...MORNING
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN
THROUGH THE DAY AND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME
DRIER AIR MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

BRISK NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS A FRESH
SNOWPACK TO OUR NORTH. THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE TODAY. WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREA MAY REACH THE
MID 40S LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD COMMONLY BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
THE NEW GUIDANCE PACKAGE ARRIVES. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON ROADAYS
AND WALKWAYS WILL FREEZE TONIGHT. BRIDGES WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ICING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. DEEP
MOISTURE PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND UPPER LOW. TIME HEIGHT INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...HOWEVER SOME
LEFTOVER DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A
PROBABLE MVFR CEILING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL
UNDERWAY WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT AT THE MASONBORO BUOY THIS MORNING AND
10 FT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. THE WIND DIRECTION HAS BACKED FROM NE
TO N AND NNW AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO
PULL OUT...BUT STILL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 TO 30 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 261438
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
938 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD
AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
NEXT WEEK AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE AS WE
WELCOME IN THE MONTH OF MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM THURSDAY...THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY...NO
ICING CONCERNS. THUS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN
DROPPED.

LOW PRESSURE WAS INTENSIFYING OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE...PASSING WELL OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...MORNING
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN
THROUGH THE DAY AND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME
DRIER AIR MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

BRISK NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS A FRESH
SNOWPACK TO OUR NORTH. THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE TODAY. WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREA MAY REACH THE
MID 40S LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD COMMONLY BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
THE NEW GUIDANCE PACKAGE ARRIVES. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON ROADAYS
AND WALKWAYS WILL FREEZE TONIGHT. BRIDGES WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ICING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. DEEP
MOISTURE PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND UPPER LOW. TIME HEIGHT INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...HOWEVER SOME
LEFTOVER DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A
PROBABLE MVFR CEILING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL
UNDERWAY WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT AT THE MASONBORO BUOY THIS MORNING AND
10 FT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. THE WIND DIRECTION HAS BACKED FROM NE
TO N AND NNW AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO
PULL OUT...BUT STILL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 TO 30 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 261107
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
608 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING A SLOW
END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FAR INLAND. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM THURSDAY...MAIN PCPN SHIELD WILL BECOME ORIENTED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT PCPN
OVER THE ILM COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS...WILL MOVE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES OF THE ILM CWA THIS MORNING.
THIS AREA OF PCPN IS TRACKING AND OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT/TROF LIES...WHICH IS
PARALLEL TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS. THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG IT THAT IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR ATTM. VARIOUS COASTAL 88D RADARS INDICATE A MORE CONVECTIVE
LOOK TO THE PCPN OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS DUE TO THE
AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY...MAINLY ALOFT...COMPLEMENTS OF THE
MILD 60+ DEGREE SSTS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULFSTREAM. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE ONSHORE.

AS THE SFC LOW FURTHER INTENSIFIES AS IT PUSHES FURTHER NE TOWARD
CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING...SOME CAA ADVECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA UNDER NW-N FLOW. WITH THE BEST UVVS AND
DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE FA AFTER DAYBREAK THU...ANY PCPN THAT FALLS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THE QUESTION RESIDES...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH SFC BASED COLD AIR
AVBL ACROSS THE WINTER WX ADV OUTLINE TO SUPPORT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...PRIOR TO THE PCPN COMPLETELY
COMING TO AN END LATE THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND PROGS...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR COLD AIR TO
BECOME AVBL FOR LIGHT FREEZING PCPN ACROSS THE CURRENT WWA
OUTLINE. THEREFORE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WWA ISSUED
MUCH EARLIER THIS MORNING. ONCE SFC BASED TEMPS INCREASE ABOVE 32
BY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WWA AREA...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING
PCPN WILL COME TO AN END.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND TONIGHT...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO EXIST FROM THE SFC THRU 8H. THUS...THE FA WILL BE
LOOKING AT A LOW STRATIFORM DECK OF CLOUDS ALL DAY BASICALLY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. AM NOT QUITE A BELIEVER THAT ENOUGH MIXING
FROM THE VERTICAL WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...THUS WILL KEEP A VARIABLE OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS...LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. DEEP
MOISTURE PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND UPPER LOW. TIME HEIGHT INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...HOWEVER SOME
LEFTOVER DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A
PROBABLE MVFR CEILING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM THURSDAY...SCA TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS THRU THIS
AFTN. THE SUB 1000MB SFC LOW HAS JUST PASSED OFF CAPE FEAR...AND
IS MOVING NE ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL FRONT/TROF RESIDING
JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTS FROM CAPE ROMAIN
TO CAPE HATTERAS. THIS SFC LOW WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT
ACCELERATES TO THE NE...REACHING CAPE HATTERAS BY MID-MORNING AT
ROUGHLY JUST ABOVE 990 MB INTENSITY. THE AREA WATERS WILL BE
SUBJECT TO STRONG SCA NNW-NNE WINDS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
TIGHTENED SFC PG. WITH THE LOW PUSHING TO NE AT FAST PACE...THE
SFC PG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO RELAX BY NOON AND FURTHER RELAX THIS
AFTN RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS QUICKLY AS THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS BUILT TO
THEIR CURRENT OF 5 TO 8 FT RANGE THIS MORNING...THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY TO THE WIND REGIME WILL PRODUCE A SUBSIDING TREND
ALMOST AS QUICKLY AS THEY BUILT UP EARLIER. WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO
DOMINATE THE SIG. SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS RUNNING 4
TO 6 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 261107
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
608 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING A SLOW
END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FAR INLAND. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM THURSDAY...MAIN PCPN SHIELD WILL BECOME ORIENTED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT PCPN
OVER THE ILM COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS...WILL MOVE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES OF THE ILM CWA THIS MORNING.
THIS AREA OF PCPN IS TRACKING AND OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT/TROF LIES...WHICH IS
PARALLEL TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS. THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG IT THAT IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR ATTM. VARIOUS COASTAL 88D RADARS INDICATE A MORE CONVECTIVE
LOOK TO THE PCPN OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS DUE TO THE
AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY...MAINLY ALOFT...COMPLEMENTS OF THE
MILD 60+ DEGREE SSTS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULFSTREAM. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE ONSHORE.

AS THE SFC LOW FURTHER INTENSIFIES AS IT PUSHES FURTHER NE TOWARD
CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING...SOME CAA ADVECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA UNDER NW-N FLOW. WITH THE BEST UVVS AND
DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE FA AFTER DAYBREAK THU...ANY PCPN THAT FALLS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THE QUESTION RESIDES...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH SFC BASED COLD AIR
AVBL ACROSS THE WINTER WX ADV OUTLINE TO SUPPORT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...PRIOR TO THE PCPN COMPLETELY
COMING TO AN END LATE THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND PROGS...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR COLD AIR TO
BECOME AVBL FOR LIGHT FREEZING PCPN ACROSS THE CURRENT WWA
OUTLINE. THEREFORE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WWA ISSUED
MUCH EARLIER THIS MORNING. ONCE SFC BASED TEMPS INCREASE ABOVE 32
BY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WWA AREA...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING
PCPN WILL COME TO AN END.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND TONIGHT...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO EXIST FROM THE SFC THRU 8H. THUS...THE FA WILL BE
LOOKING AT A LOW STRATIFORM DECK OF CLOUDS ALL DAY BASICALLY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. AM NOT QUITE A BELIEVER THAT ENOUGH MIXING
FROM THE VERTICAL WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...THUS WILL KEEP A VARIABLE OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS...LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. DEEP
MOISTURE PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND UPPER LOW. TIME HEIGHT INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...HOWEVER SOME
LEFTOVER DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A
PROBABLE MVFR CEILING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM THURSDAY...SCA TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS THRU THIS
AFTN. THE SUB 1000MB SFC LOW HAS JUST PASSED OFF CAPE FEAR...AND
IS MOVING NE ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL FRONT/TROF RESIDING
JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTS FROM CAPE ROMAIN
TO CAPE HATTERAS. THIS SFC LOW WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT
ACCELERATES TO THE NE...REACHING CAPE HATTERAS BY MID-MORNING AT
ROUGHLY JUST ABOVE 990 MB INTENSITY. THE AREA WATERS WILL BE
SUBJECT TO STRONG SCA NNW-NNE WINDS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
TIGHTENED SFC PG. WITH THE LOW PUSHING TO NE AT FAST PACE...THE
SFC PG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO RELAX BY NOON AND FURTHER RELAX THIS
AFTN RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS QUICKLY AS THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS BUILT TO
THEIR CURRENT OF 5 TO 8 FT RANGE THIS MORNING...THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY TO THE WIND REGIME WILL PRODUCE A SUBSIDING TREND
ALMOST AS QUICKLY AS THEY BUILT UP EARLIER. WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO
DOMINATE THE SIG. SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS RUNNING 4
TO 6 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 261107
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
608 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING A SLOW
END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FAR INLAND. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM THURSDAY...MAIN PCPN SHIELD WILL BECOME ORIENTED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT PCPN
OVER THE ILM COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS...WILL MOVE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES OF THE ILM CWA THIS MORNING.
THIS AREA OF PCPN IS TRACKING AND OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT/TROF LIES...WHICH IS
PARALLEL TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS. THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG IT THAT IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR ATTM. VARIOUS COASTAL 88D RADARS INDICATE A MORE CONVECTIVE
LOOK TO THE PCPN OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS DUE TO THE
AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY...MAINLY ALOFT...COMPLEMENTS OF THE
MILD 60+ DEGREE SSTS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULFSTREAM. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE ONSHORE.

AS THE SFC LOW FURTHER INTENSIFIES AS IT PUSHES FURTHER NE TOWARD
CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING...SOME CAA ADVECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA UNDER NW-N FLOW. WITH THE BEST UVVS AND
DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE FA AFTER DAYBREAK THU...ANY PCPN THAT FALLS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THE QUESTION RESIDES...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH SFC BASED COLD AIR
AVBL ACROSS THE WINTER WX ADV OUTLINE TO SUPPORT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...PRIOR TO THE PCPN COMPLETELY
COMING TO AN END LATE THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND PROGS...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR COLD AIR TO
BECOME AVBL FOR LIGHT FREEZING PCPN ACROSS THE CURRENT WWA
OUTLINE. THEREFORE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WWA ISSUED
MUCH EARLIER THIS MORNING. ONCE SFC BASED TEMPS INCREASE ABOVE 32
BY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WWA AREA...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING
PCPN WILL COME TO AN END.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND TONIGHT...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO EXIST FROM THE SFC THRU 8H. THUS...THE FA WILL BE
LOOKING AT A LOW STRATIFORM DECK OF CLOUDS ALL DAY BASICALLY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. AM NOT QUITE A BELIEVER THAT ENOUGH MIXING
FROM THE VERTICAL WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...THUS WILL KEEP A VARIABLE OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS...LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. DEEP
MOISTURE PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND UPPER LOW. TIME HEIGHT INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...HOWEVER SOME
LEFTOVER DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A
PROBABLE MVFR CEILING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM THURSDAY...SCA TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS THRU THIS
AFTN. THE SUB 1000MB SFC LOW HAS JUST PASSED OFF CAPE FEAR...AND
IS MOVING NE ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL FRONT/TROF RESIDING
JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTS FROM CAPE ROMAIN
TO CAPE HATTERAS. THIS SFC LOW WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT
ACCELERATES TO THE NE...REACHING CAPE HATTERAS BY MID-MORNING AT
ROUGHLY JUST ABOVE 990 MB INTENSITY. THE AREA WATERS WILL BE
SUBJECT TO STRONG SCA NNW-NNE WINDS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
TIGHTENED SFC PG. WITH THE LOW PUSHING TO NE AT FAST PACE...THE
SFC PG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO RELAX BY NOON AND FURTHER RELAX THIS
AFTN RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS QUICKLY AS THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS BUILT TO
THEIR CURRENT OF 5 TO 8 FT RANGE THIS MORNING...THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY TO THE WIND REGIME WILL PRODUCE A SUBSIDING TREND
ALMOST AS QUICKLY AS THEY BUILT UP EARLIER. WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO
DOMINATE THE SIG. SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS RUNNING 4
TO 6 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 261107
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
608 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING A SLOW
END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FAR INLAND. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM THURSDAY...MAIN PCPN SHIELD WILL BECOME ORIENTED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT PCPN
OVER THE ILM COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS...WILL MOVE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES OF THE ILM CWA THIS MORNING.
THIS AREA OF PCPN IS TRACKING AND OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT/TROF LIES...WHICH IS
PARALLEL TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS. THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG IT THAT IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR ATTM. VARIOUS COASTAL 88D RADARS INDICATE A MORE CONVECTIVE
LOOK TO THE PCPN OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS DUE TO THE
AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY...MAINLY ALOFT...COMPLEMENTS OF THE
MILD 60+ DEGREE SSTS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULFSTREAM. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE ONSHORE.

AS THE SFC LOW FURTHER INTENSIFIES AS IT PUSHES FURTHER NE TOWARD
CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING...SOME CAA ADVECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA UNDER NW-N FLOW. WITH THE BEST UVVS AND
DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE FA AFTER DAYBREAK THU...ANY PCPN THAT FALLS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THE QUESTION RESIDES...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH SFC BASED COLD AIR
AVBL ACROSS THE WINTER WX ADV OUTLINE TO SUPPORT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...PRIOR TO THE PCPN COMPLETELY
COMING TO AN END LATE THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND PROGS...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR COLD AIR TO
BECOME AVBL FOR LIGHT FREEZING PCPN ACROSS THE CURRENT WWA
OUTLINE. THEREFORE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WWA ISSUED
MUCH EARLIER THIS MORNING. ONCE SFC BASED TEMPS INCREASE ABOVE 32
BY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WWA AREA...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING
PCPN WILL COME TO AN END.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND TONIGHT...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO EXIST FROM THE SFC THRU 8H. THUS...THE FA WILL BE
LOOKING AT A LOW STRATIFORM DECK OF CLOUDS ALL DAY BASICALLY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. AM NOT QUITE A BELIEVER THAT ENOUGH MIXING
FROM THE VERTICAL WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...THUS WILL KEEP A VARIABLE OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS...LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. DEEP
MOISTURE PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND UPPER LOW. TIME HEIGHT INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...HOWEVER SOME
LEFTOVER DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A
PROBABLE MVFR CEILING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM THURSDAY...SCA TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS THRU THIS
AFTN. THE SUB 1000MB SFC LOW HAS JUST PASSED OFF CAPE FEAR...AND
IS MOVING NE ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL FRONT/TROF RESIDING
JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTS FROM CAPE ROMAIN
TO CAPE HATTERAS. THIS SFC LOW WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT
ACCELERATES TO THE NE...REACHING CAPE HATTERAS BY MID-MORNING AT
ROUGHLY JUST ABOVE 990 MB INTENSITY. THE AREA WATERS WILL BE
SUBJECT TO STRONG SCA NNW-NNE WINDS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
TIGHTENED SFC PG. WITH THE LOW PUSHING TO NE AT FAST PACE...THE
SFC PG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO RELAX BY NOON AND FURTHER RELAX THIS
AFTN RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS QUICKLY AS THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS BUILT TO
THEIR CURRENT OF 5 TO 8 FT RANGE THIS MORNING...THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY TO THE WIND REGIME WILL PRODUCE A SUBSIDING TREND
ALMOST AS QUICKLY AS THEY BUILT UP EARLIER. WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO
DOMINATE THE SIG. SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS RUNNING 4
TO 6 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 261026
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
526 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING A SLOW
END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FAR INLAND. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM THURSDAY...MAIN PCPN SHIELD WILL BECOME ORIENTED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT PCPN
OVER THE ILM COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS...WILL MOVE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES OF THE ILM CWA THIS MORNING.
THIS AREA OF PCPN IS TRACKING AND OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT/TROF LIES...WHICH IS
PARALLEL TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS. THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG IT THAT IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR ATTM. VARIOUS COASTAL 88D RADARS INDICATE A MORE CONVECTIVE
LOOK TO THE PCPN OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS DUE TO THE
AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY...MAINLY ALOFT...COMPLEMENTS OF THE
MILD 60+ DEGREE SSTS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULFSTREAM. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE ONSHORE.

AS THE SFC LOW FURTHER INTENSIFIES AS IT PUSHES FURTHER NE TOWARD
CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING...SOME CAA ADVECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA UNDER NW-N FLOW. WITH THE BEST UVVS AND
DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE FA AFTER DAYBREAK THU...ANY PCPN THAT FALLS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THE QUESTION RESIDES...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH SFC BASED COLD AIR
AVBL ACROSS THE WINTER WX ADV OUTLINE TO SUPPORT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...PRIOR TO THE PCPN COMPLETELY
COMING TO AN END LATE THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND PROGS...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR COLD AIR TO
BECOME AVBL FOR LIGHT FREEZING PCPN ACROSS THE CURRENT WWA
OUTLINE. THEREFORE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WWA ISSUED
MUCH EARLIER THIS MORNING. ONCE SFC BASED TEMPS INCREASE ABOVE 32
BY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WWA AREA...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING
PCPN WILL COME TO AN END.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND TONIGHT...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO EXIST FROM THE SFC THRU 8H. THUS...THE FA WILL BE
LOOKING AT A LOW STRATIFORM DECK OF CLOUDS ALL DAY BASICALLY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. AM NOT QUITE A BELIEVER THAT ENOUGH MIXING
FROM THE VERTICAL WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...THUS WILL KEEP A VARIABLE OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS...LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS THU AM...WITH ALL TERMINALS FLUCTUATING
WITH MVF AND IFR...AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST
THAT! RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA TERMINALS WILL BE
TOTALLY DOMINATED BY IFR THROUGH DAYBREAK FROM BOTH CEILINGS AND
VSBY...AND MAINLY FROM CEILINGS THERE-AFTER THRU SUNSET THU.
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -SN AND -PL FROM THE FORECAST AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND OOZ LOCAL RAOBS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE A DEEP WARM
LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE ILM CWA...WINDS BACK TO THE NW-N WITH A RETURN OF SOME
COLD AIR AT THE SFC. MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
FZRN OR FZDL TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
THERE-AFTER. ALL PCPN SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH
THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINING MOIST DOWN TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN A
LOW CLOUD DECK THRUOUT DAYLIGHT THU...AND PARTIALLY INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE SOME DRY AIR MIXES IN TO RAISE THE LOW STRATIFORM
CEILINGS. WINDS INITIALLY WILL STAY ACTIVE AND GUSTY UP TO 20 KT
FROM THE N-NE... THEN SLOWLY BACK TO NW-NNW AND DIMINISH LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM THURSDAY...SCA TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS THRU THIS
AFTN. THE SUB 1000MB SFC LOW HAS JUST PASSED OFF CAPE FEAR...AND
IS MOVING NE ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL FRONT/TROF RESIDING
JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTS FROM CAPE ROMAIN
TO CAPE HATTERAS. THIS SFC LOW WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT
ACCELERATES TO THE NE...REACHING CAPE HATTERAS BY MID-MORNING AT
ROUGHLY JUST ABOVE 990 MB INTENSITY. THE AREA WATERS WILL BE
SUBJECT TO STRONG SCA NNW-NNE WINDS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
TIGHTENED SFC PG. WITH THE LOW PUSHING TO NE AT FAST PACE...THE
SFC PG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO RELAX BY NOON AND FURTHER RELAX THIS
AFTN RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS QUICKLY AS THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS BUILT TO
THEIR CURRENT OF 5 TO 8 FT RANGE THIS MORNING...THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY TO THE WIND REGIME WILL PRODUCE A SUBSIDING TREND
ALMOST AS QUICKLY AS THEY BUILT UP EARLIER. WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO
DOMINATE THE SIG. SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS RUNNING 4
TO 6 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 261026
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
526 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING A SLOW
END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FAR INLAND. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM THURSDAY...MAIN PCPN SHIELD WILL BECOME ORIENTED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT PCPN
OVER THE ILM COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS...WILL MOVE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES OF THE ILM CWA THIS MORNING.
THIS AREA OF PCPN IS TRACKING AND OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT/TROF LIES...WHICH IS
PARALLEL TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS. THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG IT THAT IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR ATTM. VARIOUS COASTAL 88D RADARS INDICATE A MORE CONVECTIVE
LOOK TO THE PCPN OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS DUE TO THE
AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY...MAINLY ALOFT...COMPLEMENTS OF THE
MILD 60+ DEGREE SSTS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULFSTREAM. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE ONSHORE.

AS THE SFC LOW FURTHER INTENSIFIES AS IT PUSHES FURTHER NE TOWARD
CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING...SOME CAA ADVECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA UNDER NW-N FLOW. WITH THE BEST UVVS AND
DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE FA AFTER DAYBREAK THU...ANY PCPN THAT FALLS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THE QUESTION RESIDES...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH SFC BASED COLD AIR
AVBL ACROSS THE WINTER WX ADV OUTLINE TO SUPPORT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...PRIOR TO THE PCPN COMPLETELY
COMING TO AN END LATE THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND PROGS...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR COLD AIR TO
BECOME AVBL FOR LIGHT FREEZING PCPN ACROSS THE CURRENT WWA
OUTLINE. THEREFORE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WWA ISSUED
MUCH EARLIER THIS MORNING. ONCE SFC BASED TEMPS INCREASE ABOVE 32
BY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WWA AREA...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING
PCPN WILL COME TO AN END.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND TONIGHT...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO EXIST FROM THE SFC THRU 8H. THUS...THE FA WILL BE
LOOKING AT A LOW STRATIFORM DECK OF CLOUDS ALL DAY BASICALLY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. AM NOT QUITE A BELIEVER THAT ENOUGH MIXING
FROM THE VERTICAL WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...THUS WILL KEEP A VARIABLE OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS...LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS THU AM...WITH ALL TERMINALS FLUCTUATING
WITH MVF AND IFR...AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST
THAT! RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA TERMINALS WILL BE
TOTALLY DOMINATED BY IFR THROUGH DAYBREAK FROM BOTH CEILINGS AND
VSBY...AND MAINLY FROM CEILINGS THERE-AFTER THRU SUNSET THU.
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -SN AND -PL FROM THE FORECAST AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND OOZ LOCAL RAOBS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE A DEEP WARM
LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE ILM CWA...WINDS BACK TO THE NW-N WITH A RETURN OF SOME
COLD AIR AT THE SFC. MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
FZRN OR FZDL TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
THERE-AFTER. ALL PCPN SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH
THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINING MOIST DOWN TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN A
LOW CLOUD DECK THRUOUT DAYLIGHT THU...AND PARTIALLY INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE SOME DRY AIR MIXES IN TO RAISE THE LOW STRATIFORM
CEILINGS. WINDS INITIALLY WILL STAY ACTIVE AND GUSTY UP TO 20 KT
FROM THE N-NE... THEN SLOWLY BACK TO NW-NNW AND DIMINISH LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM THURSDAY...SCA TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS THRU THIS
AFTN. THE SUB 1000MB SFC LOW HAS JUST PASSED OFF CAPE FEAR...AND
IS MOVING NE ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL FRONT/TROF RESIDING
JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTS FROM CAPE ROMAIN
TO CAPE HATTERAS. THIS SFC LOW WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT
ACCELERATES TO THE NE...REACHING CAPE HATTERAS BY MID-MORNING AT
ROUGHLY JUST ABOVE 990 MB INTENSITY. THE AREA WATERS WILL BE
SUBJECT TO STRONG SCA NNW-NNE WINDS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
TIGHTENED SFC PG. WITH THE LOW PUSHING TO NE AT FAST PACE...THE
SFC PG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO RELAX BY NOON AND FURTHER RELAX THIS
AFTN RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS QUICKLY AS THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS BUILT TO
THEIR CURRENT OF 5 TO 8 FT RANGE THIS MORNING...THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY TO THE WIND REGIME WILL PRODUCE A SUBSIDING TREND
ALMOST AS QUICKLY AS THEY BUILT UP EARLIER. WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO
DOMINATE THE SIG. SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS RUNNING 4
TO 6 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 261026
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
526 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING A SLOW
END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FAR INLAND. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM THURSDAY...MAIN PCPN SHIELD WILL BECOME ORIENTED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT PCPN
OVER THE ILM COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS...WILL MOVE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES OF THE ILM CWA THIS MORNING.
THIS AREA OF PCPN IS TRACKING AND OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT/TROF LIES...WHICH IS
PARALLEL TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS. THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG IT THAT IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR ATTM. VARIOUS COASTAL 88D RADARS INDICATE A MORE CONVECTIVE
LOOK TO THE PCPN OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS DUE TO THE
AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY...MAINLY ALOFT...COMPLEMENTS OF THE
MILD 60+ DEGREE SSTS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULFSTREAM. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE ONSHORE.

AS THE SFC LOW FURTHER INTENSIFIES AS IT PUSHES FURTHER NE TOWARD
CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING...SOME CAA ADVECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA UNDER NW-N FLOW. WITH THE BEST UVVS AND
DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE FA AFTER DAYBREAK THU...ANY PCPN THAT FALLS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THE QUESTION RESIDES...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH SFC BASED COLD AIR
AVBL ACROSS THE WINTER WX ADV OUTLINE TO SUPPORT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...PRIOR TO THE PCPN COMPLETELY
COMING TO AN END LATE THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND PROGS...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR COLD AIR TO
BECOME AVBL FOR LIGHT FREEZING PCPN ACROSS THE CURRENT WWA
OUTLINE. THEREFORE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WWA ISSUED
MUCH EARLIER THIS MORNING. ONCE SFC BASED TEMPS INCREASE ABOVE 32
BY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WWA AREA...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING
PCPN WILL COME TO AN END.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND TONIGHT...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO EXIST FROM THE SFC THRU 8H. THUS...THE FA WILL BE
LOOKING AT A LOW STRATIFORM DECK OF CLOUDS ALL DAY BASICALLY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. AM NOT QUITE A BELIEVER THAT ENOUGH MIXING
FROM THE VERTICAL WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...THUS WILL KEEP A VARIABLE OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS...LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS THU AM...WITH ALL TERMINALS FLUCTUATING
WITH MVF AND IFR...AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST
THAT! RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA TERMINALS WILL BE
TOTALLY DOMINATED BY IFR THROUGH DAYBREAK FROM BOTH CEILINGS AND
VSBY...AND MAINLY FROM CEILINGS THERE-AFTER THRU SUNSET THU.
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -SN AND -PL FROM THE FORECAST AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND OOZ LOCAL RAOBS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE A DEEP WARM
LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE ILM CWA...WINDS BACK TO THE NW-N WITH A RETURN OF SOME
COLD AIR AT THE SFC. MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
FZRN OR FZDL TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
THERE-AFTER. ALL PCPN SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH
THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINING MOIST DOWN TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN A
LOW CLOUD DECK THRUOUT DAYLIGHT THU...AND PARTIALLY INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE SOME DRY AIR MIXES IN TO RAISE THE LOW STRATIFORM
CEILINGS. WINDS INITIALLY WILL STAY ACTIVE AND GUSTY UP TO 20 KT
FROM THE N-NE... THEN SLOWLY BACK TO NW-NNW AND DIMINISH LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM THURSDAY...SCA TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS THRU THIS
AFTN. THE SUB 1000MB SFC LOW HAS JUST PASSED OFF CAPE FEAR...AND
IS MOVING NE ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL FRONT/TROF RESIDING
JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTS FROM CAPE ROMAIN
TO CAPE HATTERAS. THIS SFC LOW WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT
ACCELERATES TO THE NE...REACHING CAPE HATTERAS BY MID-MORNING AT
ROUGHLY JUST ABOVE 990 MB INTENSITY. THE AREA WATERS WILL BE
SUBJECT TO STRONG SCA NNW-NNE WINDS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
TIGHTENED SFC PG. WITH THE LOW PUSHING TO NE AT FAST PACE...THE
SFC PG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO RELAX BY NOON AND FURTHER RELAX THIS
AFTN RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS QUICKLY AS THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS BUILT TO
THEIR CURRENT OF 5 TO 8 FT RANGE THIS MORNING...THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY TO THE WIND REGIME WILL PRODUCE A SUBSIDING TREND
ALMOST AS QUICKLY AS THEY BUILT UP EARLIER. WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO
DOMINATE THE SIG. SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS RUNNING 4
TO 6 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH






000
FXUS62 KILM 261014
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
514 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING A SLOW
END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FAR INLAND. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM THURSDAY...MAIN PCPN SHIELD WILL BECOME ORIENTED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT PCPN
OVER THE ILM COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS...WILL MOVE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES OF THE ILM CWA THIS MORNING.
THIS AREA OF PCPN IS TRACKING AND OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT/TROF LIES...WHICH IS
PARALLEL TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS. THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG IT THAT IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR ATTM. VARIOUS COASTAL 88D RADARS INDICATE A MORE CONVECTIVE
LOOK TO THE PCPN OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS DUE TO THE
AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY...MAINLY ALOFT...COMPLEMENTS OF THE
MILD 60+ DEGREE SSTS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULFSTREAM. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE ONSHORE.

AS THE SFC LOW FURTHER INTENSIFIES AS IT PUSHES FURTHER NE TOWARD
CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING...SOME CAA ADVECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA UNDER NW-N FLOW. WITH THE BEST UVVS AND
DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE FA AFTER DAYBREAK THU...ANY PCPN THAT FALLS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THE QUESTION RESIDES...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH SFC BASED COLD AIR
AVBL ACROSS THE WINTER WX ADV OUTLINE TO SUPPORT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...PRIOR TO THE PCPN COMPLETELY
COMING TO AN END LATE THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND PROGS...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR COLD AIR TO
BECOME AVBL FOR LIGHT FREEZING PCPN ACROSS THE CURRENT WWA
OUTLINE. THEREFORE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WWA ISSUED
MUCH EARLIER THIS MORNING. ONCE SFC BASED TEMPS INCREASE ABOVE 32
BY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WWA AREA...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING
PCPN WILL COME TO AN END.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND TONIGHT...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO EXIST FROM THE SFC THRU 8H. THUS...THE FA WILL BE
LOOKING AT A LOW STRATIFORM DECK OF CLOUDS ALL DAY BASICALLY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. AM NOT QUITE A BELIEVER THAT ENOUGH MIXING
FROM THE VERTICAL WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...THUS WILL KEEP A VARIABLE OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS...LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS THU AM...WITH ALL TERMINALS FLUCTUATING
WITH MVF AND IFR...AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST
THAT! RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA TERMINALS WILL BE
TOTALLY DOMINATED BY IFR THROUGH DAYBREAK FROM BOTH CEILINGS AND
VSBY...AND MAINLY FROM CEILINGS THERE-AFTER THRU SUNSET THU.
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -SN AND -PL FROM THE FORECAST AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND OOZ LOCAL RAOBS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE A DEEP WARM
LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE ILM CWA...WINDS BACK TO THE NW-N WITH A RETURN OF SOME
COLD AIR AT THE SFC. MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
FZRN OR FZDL TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
THERE-AFTER. ALL PCPN SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH
THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINING MOIST DOWN TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN A
LOW CLOUD DECK THRUOUT DAYLIGHT THU...AND PARTIALLY INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE SOME DRY AIR MIXES IN TO RAISE THE LOW STRATIFORM
CEILINGS. WINDS INITIALLY WILL STAY ACTIVE AND GUSTY UP TO 20 KT
FROM THE N-NE... THEN SLOWLY BACK TO NW-NNW AND DIMINISH LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH






000
FXUS62 KILM 261014
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
514 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING A SLOW
END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FAR INLAND. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM THURSDAY...MAIN PCPN SHIELD WILL BECOME ORIENTED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT PCPN
OVER THE ILM COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS...WILL MOVE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES OF THE ILM CWA THIS MORNING.
THIS AREA OF PCPN IS TRACKING AND OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT/TROF LIES...WHICH IS
PARALLEL TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS. THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG IT THAT IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
FEAR ATTM. VARIOUS COASTAL 88D RADARS INDICATE A MORE CONVECTIVE
LOOK TO THE PCPN OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS DUE TO THE
AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY...MAINLY ALOFT...COMPLEMENTS OF THE
MILD 60+ DEGREE SSTS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULFSTREAM. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE ONSHORE.

AS THE SFC LOW FURTHER INTENSIFIES AS IT PUSHES FURTHER NE TOWARD
CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING...SOME CAA ADVECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA UNDER NW-N FLOW. WITH THE BEST UVVS AND
DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE FA AFTER DAYBREAK THU...ANY PCPN THAT FALLS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THE QUESTION RESIDES...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH SFC BASED COLD AIR
AVBL ACROSS THE WINTER WX ADV OUTLINE TO SUPPORT LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...PRIOR TO THE PCPN COMPLETELY
COMING TO AN END LATE THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND PROGS...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR COLD AIR TO
BECOME AVBL FOR LIGHT FREEZING PCPN ACROSS THE CURRENT WWA
OUTLINE. THEREFORE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WWA ISSUED
MUCH EARLIER THIS MORNING. ONCE SFC BASED TEMPS INCREASE ABOVE 32
BY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WWA AREA...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING
PCPN WILL COME TO AN END.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND TONIGHT...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO EXIST FROM THE SFC THRU 8H. THUS...THE FA WILL BE
LOOKING AT A LOW STRATIFORM DECK OF CLOUDS ALL DAY BASICALLY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. AM NOT QUITE A BELIEVER THAT ENOUGH MIXING
FROM THE VERTICAL WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...THUS WILL KEEP A VARIABLE OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS...LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS THU AM...WITH ALL TERMINALS FLUCTUATING
WITH MVF AND IFR...AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST
THAT! RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA TERMINALS WILL BE
TOTALLY DOMINATED BY IFR THROUGH DAYBREAK FROM BOTH CEILINGS AND
VSBY...AND MAINLY FROM CEILINGS THERE-AFTER THRU SUNSET THU.
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -SN AND -PL FROM THE FORECAST AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND OOZ LOCAL RAOBS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE A DEEP WARM
LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE ILM CWA...WINDS BACK TO THE NW-N WITH A RETURN OF SOME
COLD AIR AT THE SFC. MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
FZRN OR FZDL TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
THERE-AFTER. ALL PCPN SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH
THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINING MOIST DOWN TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN A
LOW CLOUD DECK THRUOUT DAYLIGHT THU...AND PARTIALLY INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE SOME DRY AIR MIXES IN TO RAISE THE LOW STRATIFORM
CEILINGS. WINDS INITIALLY WILL STAY ACTIVE AND GUSTY UP TO 20 KT
FROM THE N-NE... THEN SLOWLY BACK TO NW-NNW AND DIMINISH LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH







000
FXUS62 KILM 260829
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING A SLOW
END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FAR INLAND. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...NEW UPDATES SENT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION ALL
SNOW OR SLEET FROM THE FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY
DAYBREAK THU THRU MID-MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES WITHIN THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 BY LATE MORNING...ELIMINATING
THE THREAT FOR ANY ICING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................
AS OF 820 PM WEDNESDAY...SLEET IS FALLING AS FAR EAST AS WILMINGTON
THIS EVENING...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS
WHITEVILLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
BETWEEN 2,000 AND 10,000 FEET AGL--MUCH DRIER THAN ANY MODEL
FORECAST. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND GSO SHOWED DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ANOTHER 10 DEGREES F WIDER THAN THE 18Z NAM OR GFS
THROUGH THAT LAYER. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION COOLED THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO MAKE A WRECK OF MY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER SHOULD RAISE AIR
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALONG WITH
A CONSIDERABLE INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMOVE ANY REMAINING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
EVENING I ANTICIPATE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES...PERHAPS AFFECTING
MAXTON IN WESTERN ROBESON COUNTY AS WELL.

I AM GROWING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP-AROUND COLD
AIR AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING CHANGING THE LAST OF THE RAIN
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. I HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORENCE...MARION AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER RAISING AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN IF THIS THREAT GROWS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS THU AM...WITH ALL TERMINALS FLUCTUATING
WITH MVF AND IFR...AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST
THAT! RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA TERMINALS WILL BE
TOTALLY DOMINATED BY IFR THROUGH DAYBREAK FROM BOTH CEILINGS AND
VSBY...AND MAINLY FROM CEILINGS THERE-AFTER THRU SUNSET THU.
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -SN AND -PL FROM THE FORECAST AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND OOZ LOCAL RAOBS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE A DEEP WARM
LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE ILM CWA...WINDS BACK TO THE NW-N WITH A RETURN OF SOME
COLD AIR AT THE SFC. MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
FZRN OR FZDL TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND UP TO SEVERALS THERE-AFTER.
ALL PCPN SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST DOWN TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN A LOW CLOUD DECK
THRUOUT DAYLIGHT THU...AND PARTIALLY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SOME
DRY AIR MIXES IN TO RAISE THE LOW STRATIFORM CEILINGS. WINDS
INITIALLY WILL STAY ACTIVE AND GUSTY UP TO 20 KT FROM THE N-NE...
THEN SLOWLY BACK TO NW-NNW AND DIMINISH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/TRA/JDW










000
FXUS62 KILM 260829
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING A SLOW
END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FAR INLAND. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...NEW UPDATES SENT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION ALL
SNOW OR SLEET FROM THE FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY
DAYBREAK THU THRU MID-MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES WITHIN THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 BY LATE MORNING...ELIMINATING
THE THREAT FOR ANY ICING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................
AS OF 820 PM WEDNESDAY...SLEET IS FALLING AS FAR EAST AS WILMINGTON
THIS EVENING...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS
WHITEVILLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
BETWEEN 2,000 AND 10,000 FEET AGL--MUCH DRIER THAN ANY MODEL
FORECAST. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND GSO SHOWED DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ANOTHER 10 DEGREES F WIDER THAN THE 18Z NAM OR GFS
THROUGH THAT LAYER. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION COOLED THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO MAKE A WRECK OF MY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER SHOULD RAISE AIR
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALONG WITH
A CONSIDERABLE INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMOVE ANY REMAINING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
EVENING I ANTICIPATE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES...PERHAPS AFFECTING
MAXTON IN WESTERN ROBESON COUNTY AS WELL.

I AM GROWING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP-AROUND COLD
AIR AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING CHANGING THE LAST OF THE RAIN
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. I HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORENCE...MARION AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER RAISING AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN IF THIS THREAT GROWS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS THU AM...WITH ALL TERMINALS FLUCTUATING
WITH MVF AND IFR...AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST
THAT! RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA TERMINALS WILL BE
TOTALLY DOMINATED BY IFR THROUGH DAYBREAK FROM BOTH CEILINGS AND
VSBY...AND MAINLY FROM CEILINGS THERE-AFTER THRU SUNSET THU.
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -SN AND -PL FROM THE FORECAST AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND OOZ LOCAL RAOBS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE A DEEP WARM
LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE ILM CWA...WINDS BACK TO THE NW-N WITH A RETURN OF SOME
COLD AIR AT THE SFC. MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
FZRN OR FZDL TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND UP TO SEVERALS THERE-AFTER.
ALL PCPN SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST DOWN TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN A LOW CLOUD DECK
THRUOUT DAYLIGHT THU...AND PARTIALLY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SOME
DRY AIR MIXES IN TO RAISE THE LOW STRATIFORM CEILINGS. WINDS
INITIALLY WILL STAY ACTIVE AND GUSTY UP TO 20 KT FROM THE N-NE...
THEN SLOWLY BACK TO NW-NNW AND DIMINISH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/TRA/JDW










000
FXUS62 KILM 260829
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING A SLOW
END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FAR INLAND. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...NEW UPDATES SENT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION ALL
SNOW OR SLEET FROM THE FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY
DAYBREAK THU THRU MID-MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES WITHIN THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 BY LATE MORNING...ELIMINATING
THE THREAT FOR ANY ICING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................
AS OF 820 PM WEDNESDAY...SLEET IS FALLING AS FAR EAST AS WILMINGTON
THIS EVENING...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS
WHITEVILLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
BETWEEN 2,000 AND 10,000 FEET AGL--MUCH DRIER THAN ANY MODEL
FORECAST. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND GSO SHOWED DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ANOTHER 10 DEGREES F WIDER THAN THE 18Z NAM OR GFS
THROUGH THAT LAYER. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION COOLED THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO MAKE A WRECK OF MY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER SHOULD RAISE AIR
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALONG WITH
A CONSIDERABLE INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMOVE ANY REMAINING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
EVENING I ANTICIPATE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES...PERHAPS AFFECTING
MAXTON IN WESTERN ROBESON COUNTY AS WELL.

I AM GROWING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP-AROUND COLD
AIR AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING CHANGING THE LAST OF THE RAIN
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. I HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORENCE...MARION AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER RAISING AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN IF THIS THREAT GROWS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS THU AM...WITH ALL TERMINALS FLUCTUATING
WITH MVF AND IFR...AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST
THAT! RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA TERMINALS WILL BE
TOTALLY DOMINATED BY IFR THROUGH DAYBREAK FROM BOTH CEILINGS AND
VSBY...AND MAINLY FROM CEILINGS THERE-AFTER THRU SUNSET THU.
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -SN AND -PL FROM THE FORECAST AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND OOZ LOCAL RAOBS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE A DEEP WARM
LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE ILM CWA...WINDS BACK TO THE NW-N WITH A RETURN OF SOME
COLD AIR AT THE SFC. MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
FZRN OR FZDL TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND UP TO SEVERALS THERE-AFTER.
ALL PCPN SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST DOWN TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN A LOW CLOUD DECK
THRUOUT DAYLIGHT THU...AND PARTIALLY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SOME
DRY AIR MIXES IN TO RAISE THE LOW STRATIFORM CEILINGS. WINDS
INITIALLY WILL STAY ACTIVE AND GUSTY UP TO 20 KT FROM THE N-NE...
THEN SLOWLY BACK TO NW-NNW AND DIMINISH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/TRA/JDW









000
FXUS62 KILM 260829
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING A SLOW
END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FAR INLAND. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...NEW UPDATES SENT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION ALL
SNOW OR SLEET FROM THE FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY
DAYBREAK THU THRU MID-MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES WITHIN THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 BY LATE MORNING...ELIMINATING
THE THREAT FOR ANY ICING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................
AS OF 820 PM WEDNESDAY...SLEET IS FALLING AS FAR EAST AS WILMINGTON
THIS EVENING...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS
WHITEVILLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
BETWEEN 2,000 AND 10,000 FEET AGL--MUCH DRIER THAN ANY MODEL
FORECAST. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND GSO SHOWED DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ANOTHER 10 DEGREES F WIDER THAN THE 18Z NAM OR GFS
THROUGH THAT LAYER. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION COOLED THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO MAKE A WRECK OF MY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER SHOULD RAISE AIR
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALONG WITH
A CONSIDERABLE INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMOVE ANY REMAINING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
EVENING I ANTICIPATE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES...PERHAPS AFFECTING
MAXTON IN WESTERN ROBESON COUNTY AS WELL.

I AM GROWING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP-AROUND COLD
AIR AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING CHANGING THE LAST OF THE RAIN
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. I HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORENCE...MARION AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER RAISING AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN IF THIS THREAT GROWS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS THU AM...WITH ALL TERMINALS FLUCTUATING
WITH MVF AND IFR...AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST
THAT! RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA TERMINALS WILL BE
TOTALLY DOMINATED BY IFR THROUGH DAYBREAK FROM BOTH CEILINGS AND
VSBY...AND MAINLY FROM CEILINGS THERE-AFTER THRU SUNSET THU.
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -SN AND -PL FROM THE FORECAST AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND OOZ LOCAL RAOBS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE A DEEP WARM
LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE ILM CWA...WINDS BACK TO THE NW-N WITH A RETURN OF SOME
COLD AIR AT THE SFC. MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
FZRN OR FZDL TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND UP TO SEVERALS THERE-AFTER.
ALL PCPN SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST DOWN TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN A LOW CLOUD DECK
THRUOUT DAYLIGHT THU...AND PARTIALLY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SOME
DRY AIR MIXES IN TO RAISE THE LOW STRATIFORM CEILINGS. WINDS
INITIALLY WILL STAY ACTIVE AND GUSTY UP TO 20 KT FROM THE N-NE...
THEN SLOWLY BACK TO NW-NNW AND DIMINISH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/TRA/JDW









000
FXUS62 KILM 260710
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
210 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY SOME CLEARING SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...NEW UPDATES SENT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION ALL
SNOW OR SLEET FROM THE FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY
DAYBREAK THU THRU MID-MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES WITHIN THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 BY LATE MORNING...ELIMINATING
THE THREAT FOR ANY ICING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...................................
AS OF 820 PM WEDNESDAY...SLEET IS FALLING AS FAR EAST AS WILMINGTON
THIS EVENING...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS
WHITEVILLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
BETWEEN 2,000 AND 10,000 FEET AGL--MUCH DRIER THAN ANY MODEL
FORECAST. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND GSO SHOWED DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ANOTHER 10 DEGREES F WIDER THAN THE 18Z NAM OR GFS
THROUGH THAT LAYER. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION COOLED THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO MAKE A WRECK OF MY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER SHOULD RAISE AIR
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALONG WITH
A CONSIDERABLE INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMOVE ANY REMAINING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
EVENING I ANTICIPATE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES...PERHAPS AFFECTING
MAXTON IN WESTERN ROBESON COUNTY AS WELL.

I AM GROWING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP-AROUND COLD
AIR AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING CHANGING THE LAST OF THE RAIN
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. I HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORENCE...MARION AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER RAISING AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN IF THIS THREAT GROWS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE RACES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE LEAVING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. I DID LEAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY PLOD TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS BY MID MORNING.
BEYOND THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
WITH LOW CEILINGS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
OPTED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS VS THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT SURE WHEN WE`LL SEE SUNSHINE AGAIN.
AFTER A RAIN-FREE BUT PROBABLY CLOUDY DAY SATURDAY THE LONG TERM
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. SATURDAY THOUGH BRINGS ZONAL
MID LEVEL FLOW BUT ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH DEEP
INVERSION OR PERHAPS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST WITH ITS CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH. SUNDAY THE HIGH
TAKES ON MORE OF A WEDGE-LIKE ELONGATION INTO THE CAROLINAS.
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AS WELL BUT NOW APPEARS MUCH WEAKER.
AS SUCH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY BUT SOME
LOW POPS STILL LIKELY WARRANTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. SUNDAY HIGHS
HAD TO BE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY SPONSOR A
DREARY DAY WITH TEMPS MIRED IN THE 40S (MEANWHILE THE NORMAL HIGH
CONTINUES TO CREEP UPWARDS...NOW 63 FOR ILM). SPEAKING OF HIGHS IN
THE 60S...MONDAY MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE AS SUCH. THE WEDGE
BREAKS DOWN ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO A DECELERATING COLD FRONT. HIGHS
MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO SEASONABLE DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE
TEMPERATURES BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE ON TUESDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY
INSTEAD OF THE SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST (IN ONE
RUN THE MEX FCST WENT FROM 65 TO 52!). FOR WEDNESDAY THE SETUP IS
RATHER SIMILAR TO MONDAY WHEREIN THE WEDGE MAY BREAK DOWN FOR A
NEAR IMMEDIATE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT, THE END RESULT BEING A
RAINY BUT SEASONABLE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS THU AM...WITH ALL TERMINALS FLUCTUATING
WITH MVF AND IFR...AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST
THAT! RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA TERMINALS WILL BE
TOTALLY DOMINATED BY IFR THROUGH DAYBREAK FROM BOTH CEILINGS AND
VSBY...AND MAINLY FROM CEILINGS THERE-AFTER THRU SUNSET THU.
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -SN AND -PL FROM THE FORECAST AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND OOZ LOCAL RAOBS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE A DEEP WARM
LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE ILM CWA...WINDS BACK TO THE NW-N WITH A RETURN OF SOME
COLD AIR AT THE SFC. MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
FZRN OR FZDL TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND UP TO SEVERALS THERE-AFTER.
ALL PCPN SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST DOWN TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN A LOW CLOUD DECK
THRUOUT DAYLIGHT THU...AND PARTIALLY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SOME
DRY AIR MIXES IN TO RAISE THE LOW STRATIFORM CEILINGS. WINDS
INITIALLY WILL STAY ACTIVE AND GUSTY UP TO 20 KT FROM THE N-NE...
THEN SLOWLY BACK TO NW-NNW AND DIMINISH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER DURING THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. INITIALLY A NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 10-15
KNOTS LEANING HEAVILY TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE. WITH THE
SPRAWLING HIGH MOVING SLOWLY...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE
SAME MANNER AND WINDS WILL REMAIN HERE UNTIL BASICALLY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE BUT BRIEF LULL EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE EARLY STAGES OF A COASTAL
TROUGH FORM. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WITH 5-8 FEET CONTINUING. BY
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE MODERATE RANGE OF 2-4 FEET
DEVELOPS. THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE IN THE DAY
LOOKS OK.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY SLIDING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A BROAD SWATH OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. CONDITIONS MAY GET
CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA CUTOFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LESS SHELTERED NC
WATERS. SUNDAY THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST BUT LEAVES BEHIND A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME AN OFFSHORE
TROUGHINESS SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER THE FLOW. PRETTY COMPLEX SETUP
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN LEAVING BEHIND HIGH
DUE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPSTATE
REGION OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE DECELERATING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEERS CONSIDERABLY OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN WATERS
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY. A NE FLOW RETURNS AREA-WIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH






000
FXUS62 KILM 260710
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
210 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY SOME CLEARING SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...NEW UPDATES SENT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION ALL
SNOW OR SLEET FROM THE FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY
DAYBREAK THU THRU MID-MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES WITHIN THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 BY LATE MORNING...ELIMINATING
THE THREAT FOR ANY ICING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...................................
AS OF 820 PM WEDNESDAY...SLEET IS FALLING AS FAR EAST AS WILMINGTON
THIS EVENING...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS
WHITEVILLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
BETWEEN 2,000 AND 10,000 FEET AGL--MUCH DRIER THAN ANY MODEL
FORECAST. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND GSO SHOWED DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ANOTHER 10 DEGREES F WIDER THAN THE 18Z NAM OR GFS
THROUGH THAT LAYER. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION COOLED THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO MAKE A WRECK OF MY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER SHOULD RAISE AIR
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALONG WITH
A CONSIDERABLE INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMOVE ANY REMAINING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
EVENING I ANTICIPATE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES...PERHAPS AFFECTING
MAXTON IN WESTERN ROBESON COUNTY AS WELL.

I AM GROWING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP-AROUND COLD
AIR AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING CHANGING THE LAST OF THE RAIN
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. I HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORENCE...MARION AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER RAISING AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN IF THIS THREAT GROWS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE RACES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE LEAVING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. I DID LEAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY PLOD TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS BY MID MORNING.
BEYOND THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
WITH LOW CEILINGS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
OPTED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS VS THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT SURE WHEN WE`LL SEE SUNSHINE AGAIN.
AFTER A RAIN-FREE BUT PROBABLY CLOUDY DAY SATURDAY THE LONG TERM
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. SATURDAY THOUGH BRINGS ZONAL
MID LEVEL FLOW BUT ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH DEEP
INVERSION OR PERHAPS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST WITH ITS CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH. SUNDAY THE HIGH
TAKES ON MORE OF A WEDGE-LIKE ELONGATION INTO THE CAROLINAS.
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AS WELL BUT NOW APPEARS MUCH WEAKER.
AS SUCH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY BUT SOME
LOW POPS STILL LIKELY WARRANTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. SUNDAY HIGHS
HAD TO BE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY SPONSOR A
DREARY DAY WITH TEMPS MIRED IN THE 40S (MEANWHILE THE NORMAL HIGH
CONTINUES TO CREEP UPWARDS...NOW 63 FOR ILM). SPEAKING OF HIGHS IN
THE 60S...MONDAY MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE AS SUCH. THE WEDGE
BREAKS DOWN ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO A DECELERATING COLD FRONT. HIGHS
MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO SEASONABLE DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE
TEMPERATURES BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE ON TUESDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY
INSTEAD OF THE SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST (IN ONE
RUN THE MEX FCST WENT FROM 65 TO 52!). FOR WEDNESDAY THE SETUP IS
RATHER SIMILAR TO MONDAY WHEREIN THE WEDGE MAY BREAK DOWN FOR A
NEAR IMMEDIATE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT, THE END RESULT BEING A
RAINY BUT SEASONABLE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS THU AM...WITH ALL TERMINALS FLUCTUATING
WITH MVF AND IFR...AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST
THAT! RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA TERMINALS WILL BE
TOTALLY DOMINATED BY IFR THROUGH DAYBREAK FROM BOTH CEILINGS AND
VSBY...AND MAINLY FROM CEILINGS THERE-AFTER THRU SUNSET THU.
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -SN AND -PL FROM THE FORECAST AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND OOZ LOCAL RAOBS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE A DEEP WARM
LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE ILM CWA...WINDS BACK TO THE NW-N WITH A RETURN OF SOME
COLD AIR AT THE SFC. MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
FZRN OR FZDL TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND UP TO SEVERALS THERE-AFTER.
ALL PCPN SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH THE LOWER LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST DOWN TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN A LOW CLOUD DECK
THRUOUT DAYLIGHT THU...AND PARTIALLY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SOME
DRY AIR MIXES IN TO RAISE THE LOW STRATIFORM CEILINGS. WINDS
INITIALLY WILL STAY ACTIVE AND GUSTY UP TO 20 KT FROM THE N-NE...
THEN SLOWLY BACK TO NW-NNW AND DIMINISH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER DURING THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. INITIALLY A NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 10-15
KNOTS LEANING HEAVILY TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE. WITH THE
SPRAWLING HIGH MOVING SLOWLY...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE
SAME MANNER AND WINDS WILL REMAIN HERE UNTIL BASICALLY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE BUT BRIEF LULL EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE EARLY STAGES OF A COASTAL
TROUGH FORM. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WITH 5-8 FEET CONTINUING. BY
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE MODERATE RANGE OF 2-4 FEET
DEVELOPS. THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE IN THE DAY
LOOKS OK.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY SLIDING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A BROAD SWATH OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. CONDITIONS MAY GET
CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA CUTOFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LESS SHELTERED NC
WATERS. SUNDAY THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST BUT LEAVES BEHIND A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME AN OFFSHORE
TROUGHINESS SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER THE FLOW. PRETTY COMPLEX SETUP
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN LEAVING BEHIND HIGH
DUE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPSTATE
REGION OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE DECELERATING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEERS CONSIDERABLY OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN WATERS
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY. A NE FLOW RETURNS AREA-WIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 260658
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
158 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY SOME CLEARING SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...NEW UPDATES SENT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION ALL
SNOW OR SLEET FROM THE FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY
DAYBREAK THU THRU MID-MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES WITHIN THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 BY LATE MORNING...ELIMINATING
THE THREAT FOR ANY ICING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 820 PM WEDNESDAY...SLEET IS FALLING AS FAR EAST AS WILMINGTON
THIS EVENING...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS
WHITEVILLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
BETWEEN 2,000 AND 10,000 FEET AGL--MUCH DRIER THAN ANY MODEL
FORECAST. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND GSO SHOWED DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ANOTHER 10 DEGREES F WIDER THAN THE 18Z NAM OR GFS
THROUGH THAT LAYER. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION COOLED THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO MAKE A WRECK OF MY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER SHOULD RAISE AIR
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALONG WITH
A CONSIDERABLE INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMOVE ANY REMAINING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
EVENING I ANTICIPATE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES...PERHAPS AFFECTING
MAXTON IN WESTERN ROBESON COUNTY AS WELL.

I AM GROWING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP-AROUND COLD
AIR AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING CHANGING THE LAST OF THE RAIN
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. I HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORENCE...MARION AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER RAISING AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN IF THIS THREAT GROWS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE RACES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE LEAVING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. I DID LEAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY PLOD TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS BY MID MORNING.
BEYOND THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
WITH LOW CEILINGS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
OPTED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS VS THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT SURE WHEN WE`LL SEE SUNSHINE AGAIN.

AFTER A RAIN-FREE BUT PROBABLY CLOUDY DAY SATURDAY THE LONG TERM
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. SATURDAY THOUGH BRINGS ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW BUT ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH DEEP
INVERSION OR PERHAPS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST WITH ITS CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH. SUNDAY THE HIGH
TAKES ON MORE OF A WEDGE-LIKE ELONGATION INTO THE CAROLINAS.
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AS WELL BUT NOW APPEARS MUCH WEAKER.
AS SUCH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY BUT SOME
LOW POPS STILL LIKELY WARRANTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. SUNDAY HIGHS HAD
TO BE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY SPONSOR A DREARY
DAY WITH TEMPS MIRED IN THE 40S (MEANWHILE THE NORMAL HIGH CONTINUES
TO CREEP UPWARDS...NOW 63 FOR ILM). SPEAKING OF HIGHS IN THE
60S...MONDAY MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE AS SUCH. THE WEDGE BREAKS
DOWN ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO A DECELERATING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MAY CLIMB
CLOSE TO SEASONABLE DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE TEMPERATURES
BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
ON TUESDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY INSTEAD OF THE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST (IN ONE RUN THE MEX FCST
WENT FROM 65 TO 52!). FOR WEDNESDAY THE SETUP IS RATHER SIMILAR TO
MONDAY WHEREIN THE WEDGE MAY BREAK DOWN FOR A NEAR IMMEDIATE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT, THE END RESULT BEING A RAINY BUT SEASONABLE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WITH
-RAPL MIX ACROSS FLORENCE AND ROBESON COUNTIES BUT NOT AT THE ASOS
SITES. WILL MENTION AT KFLO AND KLBT IN TEMPO GROUP A -RAPL MIX.
EXPECT ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WITH MAX UVM BETWEEN 04Z-08Z HAVE BROUGHT DOWN SITES TO LIFR
IN TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODEL SOUNDING DATA ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES STILL SHOW DRY AREA BETWEEN H9 AND H7 BUT THIS QUICKLY
MOISTEN UP AND BY 02Z COLUMN IS SATURATED AND STAYS THAT WAY TO
ABOUT 12Z WHEN DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WILL CUT
OFF PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS TIME BUT KEEP TERMINALS IN MVFR WITH
CEILING AND VSBY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR KLBT WILL HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 04Z-08Z FOR -SNPL WITH A PREVAILING GROUP AT 08Z FOR
-SNPL BEFORE MIXING BACK WITH -RA BY 10Z. WILL NOT HAVE -FZRA OR -PL
AT FLO AFT 03Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE TO E AT 10-15 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS 60-70 KT JET IS LOCATED AT H7 THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT WITH 95 KT WINDS AT H5. WOULD EXPECT SOME TURBULENCE
THROUGHOUT THIS LEVEL WITH WIND SPEED SHEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE
OVERNIGHT IN IFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS ESPECIALLY FROM 04-08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER DURING THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. INITIALLY A NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 10-15
KNOTS LEANING HEAVILY TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE. WITH THE
SPRAWLING HIGH MOVING SLOWLY...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE
SAME MANNER AND WINDS WILL REMAIN HERE UNTIL BASICALLY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE BUT BRIEF LULL EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE EARLY STAGES OF A COASTAL
TROUGH FORM. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WITH 5-8 FEET CONTINUING. BY
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE MODERATE RANGE OF 2-4 FEET
DEVELOPS. THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE IN THE DAY
LOOKS OK.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY SLIDING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A BROAD SWATH OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. CONDITIONS MAY GET
CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA CUTOFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LESS SHELTERED NC
WATERS. SUNDAY THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST BUT LEAVES BEHIND A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME AN OFFSHORE
TROUGHINESS SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER THE FLOW. PRETTY COMPLEX SETUP
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN LEAVING BEHIND HIGH
DUE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPSTATE
REGION OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE DECELERATING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEERS CONSIDERABLY OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN WATERS
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY. A NE FLOW RETURNS AREA-WIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH







000
FXUS62 KILM 260658
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
158 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY SOME CLEARING SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...NEW UPDATES SENT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION ALL
SNOW OR SLEET FROM THE FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY
DAYBREAK THU THRU MID-MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES WITHIN THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 BY LATE MORNING...ELIMINATING
THE THREAT FOR ANY ICING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 820 PM WEDNESDAY...SLEET IS FALLING AS FAR EAST AS WILMINGTON
THIS EVENING...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS
WHITEVILLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
BETWEEN 2,000 AND 10,000 FEET AGL--MUCH DRIER THAN ANY MODEL
FORECAST. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND GSO SHOWED DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ANOTHER 10 DEGREES F WIDER THAN THE 18Z NAM OR GFS
THROUGH THAT LAYER. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION COOLED THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO MAKE A WRECK OF MY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER SHOULD RAISE AIR
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALONG WITH
A CONSIDERABLE INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMOVE ANY REMAINING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
EVENING I ANTICIPATE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES...PERHAPS AFFECTING
MAXTON IN WESTERN ROBESON COUNTY AS WELL.

I AM GROWING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP-AROUND COLD
AIR AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING CHANGING THE LAST OF THE RAIN
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. I HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORENCE...MARION AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER RAISING AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN IF THIS THREAT GROWS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE RACES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE LEAVING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. I DID LEAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY PLOD TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS BY MID MORNING.
BEYOND THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
WITH LOW CEILINGS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
OPTED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS VS THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT SURE WHEN WE`LL SEE SUNSHINE AGAIN.

AFTER A RAIN-FREE BUT PROBABLY CLOUDY DAY SATURDAY THE LONG TERM
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. SATURDAY THOUGH BRINGS ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW BUT ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH DEEP
INVERSION OR PERHAPS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST WITH ITS CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH. SUNDAY THE HIGH
TAKES ON MORE OF A WEDGE-LIKE ELONGATION INTO THE CAROLINAS.
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AS WELL BUT NOW APPEARS MUCH WEAKER.
AS SUCH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY BUT SOME
LOW POPS STILL LIKELY WARRANTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. SUNDAY HIGHS HAD
TO BE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY SPONSOR A DREARY
DAY WITH TEMPS MIRED IN THE 40S (MEANWHILE THE NORMAL HIGH CONTINUES
TO CREEP UPWARDS...NOW 63 FOR ILM). SPEAKING OF HIGHS IN THE
60S...MONDAY MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE AS SUCH. THE WEDGE BREAKS
DOWN ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO A DECELERATING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MAY CLIMB
CLOSE TO SEASONABLE DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE TEMPERATURES
BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
ON TUESDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY INSTEAD OF THE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST (IN ONE RUN THE MEX FCST
WENT FROM 65 TO 52!). FOR WEDNESDAY THE SETUP IS RATHER SIMILAR TO
MONDAY WHEREIN THE WEDGE MAY BREAK DOWN FOR A NEAR IMMEDIATE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT, THE END RESULT BEING A RAINY BUT SEASONABLE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WITH
-RAPL MIX ACROSS FLORENCE AND ROBESON COUNTIES BUT NOT AT THE ASOS
SITES. WILL MENTION AT KFLO AND KLBT IN TEMPO GROUP A -RAPL MIX.
EXPECT ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WITH MAX UVM BETWEEN 04Z-08Z HAVE BROUGHT DOWN SITES TO LIFR
IN TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODEL SOUNDING DATA ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES STILL SHOW DRY AREA BETWEEN H9 AND H7 BUT THIS QUICKLY
MOISTEN UP AND BY 02Z COLUMN IS SATURATED AND STAYS THAT WAY TO
ABOUT 12Z WHEN DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WILL CUT
OFF PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS TIME BUT KEEP TERMINALS IN MVFR WITH
CEILING AND VSBY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR KLBT WILL HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 04Z-08Z FOR -SNPL WITH A PREVAILING GROUP AT 08Z FOR
-SNPL BEFORE MIXING BACK WITH -RA BY 10Z. WILL NOT HAVE -FZRA OR -PL
AT FLO AFT 03Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE TO E AT 10-15 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS 60-70 KT JET IS LOCATED AT H7 THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT WITH 95 KT WINDS AT H5. WOULD EXPECT SOME TURBULENCE
THROUGHOUT THIS LEVEL WITH WIND SPEED SHEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE
OVERNIGHT IN IFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS ESPECIALLY FROM 04-08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER DURING THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. INITIALLY A NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 10-15
KNOTS LEANING HEAVILY TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE. WITH THE
SPRAWLING HIGH MOVING SLOWLY...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE
SAME MANNER AND WINDS WILL REMAIN HERE UNTIL BASICALLY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE BUT BRIEF LULL EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE EARLY STAGES OF A COASTAL
TROUGH FORM. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WITH 5-8 FEET CONTINUING. BY
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE MODERATE RANGE OF 2-4 FEET
DEVELOPS. THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE IN THE DAY
LOOKS OK.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY SLIDING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A BROAD SWATH OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. CONDITIONS MAY GET
CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA CUTOFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LESS SHELTERED NC
WATERS. SUNDAY THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST BUT LEAVES BEHIND A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME AN OFFSHORE
TROUGHINESS SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER THE FLOW. PRETTY COMPLEX SETUP
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN LEAVING BEHIND HIGH
DUE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPSTATE
REGION OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE DECELERATING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEERS CONSIDERABLY OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN WATERS
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY. A NE FLOW RETURNS AREA-WIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH








000
FXUS62 KILM 260658
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
158 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY SOME CLEARING SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...NEW UPDATES SENT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION ALL
SNOW OR SLEET FROM THE FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY
DAYBREAK THU THRU MID-MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES WITHIN THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 BY LATE MORNING...ELIMINATING
THE THREAT FOR ANY ICING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 820 PM WEDNESDAY...SLEET IS FALLING AS FAR EAST AS WILMINGTON
THIS EVENING...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS
WHITEVILLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
BETWEEN 2,000 AND 10,000 FEET AGL--MUCH DRIER THAN ANY MODEL
FORECAST. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND GSO SHOWED DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ANOTHER 10 DEGREES F WIDER THAN THE 18Z NAM OR GFS
THROUGH THAT LAYER. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION COOLED THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO MAKE A WRECK OF MY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER SHOULD RAISE AIR
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALONG WITH
A CONSIDERABLE INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMOVE ANY REMAINING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
EVENING I ANTICIPATE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES...PERHAPS AFFECTING
MAXTON IN WESTERN ROBESON COUNTY AS WELL.

I AM GROWING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP-AROUND COLD
AIR AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING CHANGING THE LAST OF THE RAIN
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. I HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORENCE...MARION AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER RAISING AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN IF THIS THREAT GROWS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE RACES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE LEAVING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. I DID LEAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY PLOD TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS BY MID MORNING.
BEYOND THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
WITH LOW CEILINGS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
OPTED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS VS THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT SURE WHEN WE`LL SEE SUNSHINE AGAIN.

AFTER A RAIN-FREE BUT PROBABLY CLOUDY DAY SATURDAY THE LONG TERM
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. SATURDAY THOUGH BRINGS ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW BUT ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH DEEP
INVERSION OR PERHAPS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST WITH ITS CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH. SUNDAY THE HIGH
TAKES ON MORE OF A WEDGE-LIKE ELONGATION INTO THE CAROLINAS.
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AS WELL BUT NOW APPEARS MUCH WEAKER.
AS SUCH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY BUT SOME
LOW POPS STILL LIKELY WARRANTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. SUNDAY HIGHS HAD
TO BE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY SPONSOR A DREARY
DAY WITH TEMPS MIRED IN THE 40S (MEANWHILE THE NORMAL HIGH CONTINUES
TO CREEP UPWARDS...NOW 63 FOR ILM). SPEAKING OF HIGHS IN THE
60S...MONDAY MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE AS SUCH. THE WEDGE BREAKS
DOWN ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO A DECELERATING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MAY CLIMB
CLOSE TO SEASONABLE DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE TEMPERATURES
BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
ON TUESDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY INSTEAD OF THE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST (IN ONE RUN THE MEX FCST
WENT FROM 65 TO 52!). FOR WEDNESDAY THE SETUP IS RATHER SIMILAR TO
MONDAY WHEREIN THE WEDGE MAY BREAK DOWN FOR A NEAR IMMEDIATE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT, THE END RESULT BEING A RAINY BUT SEASONABLE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WITH
-RAPL MIX ACROSS FLORENCE AND ROBESON COUNTIES BUT NOT AT THE ASOS
SITES. WILL MENTION AT KFLO AND KLBT IN TEMPO GROUP A -RAPL MIX.
EXPECT ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WITH MAX UVM BETWEEN 04Z-08Z HAVE BROUGHT DOWN SITES TO LIFR
IN TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODEL SOUNDING DATA ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES STILL SHOW DRY AREA BETWEEN H9 AND H7 BUT THIS QUICKLY
MOISTEN UP AND BY 02Z COLUMN IS SATURATED AND STAYS THAT WAY TO
ABOUT 12Z WHEN DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WILL CUT
OFF PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS TIME BUT KEEP TERMINALS IN MVFR WITH
CEILING AND VSBY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR KLBT WILL HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 04Z-08Z FOR -SNPL WITH A PREVAILING GROUP AT 08Z FOR
-SNPL BEFORE MIXING BACK WITH -RA BY 10Z. WILL NOT HAVE -FZRA OR -PL
AT FLO AFT 03Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE TO E AT 10-15 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS 60-70 KT JET IS LOCATED AT H7 THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT WITH 95 KT WINDS AT H5. WOULD EXPECT SOME TURBULENCE
THROUGHOUT THIS LEVEL WITH WIND SPEED SHEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE
OVERNIGHT IN IFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS ESPECIALLY FROM 04-08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER DURING THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. INITIALLY A NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 10-15
KNOTS LEANING HEAVILY TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE. WITH THE
SPRAWLING HIGH MOVING SLOWLY...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE
SAME MANNER AND WINDS WILL REMAIN HERE UNTIL BASICALLY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE BUT BRIEF LULL EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE EARLY STAGES OF A COASTAL
TROUGH FORM. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WITH 5-8 FEET CONTINUING. BY
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE MODERATE RANGE OF 2-4 FEET
DEVELOPS. THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE IN THE DAY
LOOKS OK.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY SLIDING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A BROAD SWATH OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. CONDITIONS MAY GET
CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA CUTOFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LESS SHELTERED NC
WATERS. SUNDAY THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST BUT LEAVES BEHIND A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME AN OFFSHORE
TROUGHINESS SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER THE FLOW. PRETTY COMPLEX SETUP
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN LEAVING BEHIND HIGH
DUE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPSTATE
REGION OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE DECELERATING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEERS CONSIDERABLY OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN WATERS
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY. A NE FLOW RETURNS AREA-WIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH








000
FXUS62 KILM 260658
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
158 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY SOME CLEARING SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...NEW UPDATES SENT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION ALL
SNOW OR SLEET FROM THE FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY
DAYBREAK THU THRU MID-MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES WITHIN THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 BY LATE MORNING...ELIMINATING
THE THREAT FOR ANY ICING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 820 PM WEDNESDAY...SLEET IS FALLING AS FAR EAST AS WILMINGTON
THIS EVENING...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS
WHITEVILLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
BETWEEN 2,000 AND 10,000 FEET AGL--MUCH DRIER THAN ANY MODEL
FORECAST. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND GSO SHOWED DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ANOTHER 10 DEGREES F WIDER THAN THE 18Z NAM OR GFS
THROUGH THAT LAYER. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION COOLED THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO MAKE A WRECK OF MY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER SHOULD RAISE AIR
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALONG WITH
A CONSIDERABLE INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMOVE ANY REMAINING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
EVENING I ANTICIPATE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES...PERHAPS AFFECTING
MAXTON IN WESTERN ROBESON COUNTY AS WELL.

I AM GROWING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP-AROUND COLD
AIR AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING CHANGING THE LAST OF THE RAIN
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. I HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORENCE...MARION AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER RAISING AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN IF THIS THREAT GROWS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE RACES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE LEAVING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. I DID LEAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY PLOD TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS BY MID MORNING.
BEYOND THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
WITH LOW CEILINGS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
OPTED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS VS THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT SURE WHEN WE`LL SEE SUNSHINE AGAIN.

AFTER A RAIN-FREE BUT PROBABLY CLOUDY DAY SATURDAY THE LONG TERM
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. SATURDAY THOUGH BRINGS ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW BUT ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH DEEP
INVERSION OR PERHAPS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST WITH ITS CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH. SUNDAY THE HIGH
TAKES ON MORE OF A WEDGE-LIKE ELONGATION INTO THE CAROLINAS.
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AS WELL BUT NOW APPEARS MUCH WEAKER.
AS SUCH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY BUT SOME
LOW POPS STILL LIKELY WARRANTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. SUNDAY HIGHS HAD
TO BE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY SPONSOR A DREARY
DAY WITH TEMPS MIRED IN THE 40S (MEANWHILE THE NORMAL HIGH CONTINUES
TO CREEP UPWARDS...NOW 63 FOR ILM). SPEAKING OF HIGHS IN THE
60S...MONDAY MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE AS SUCH. THE WEDGE BREAKS
DOWN ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO A DECELERATING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MAY CLIMB
CLOSE TO SEASONABLE DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE TEMPERATURES
BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
ON TUESDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY INSTEAD OF THE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST (IN ONE RUN THE MEX FCST
WENT FROM 65 TO 52!). FOR WEDNESDAY THE SETUP IS RATHER SIMILAR TO
MONDAY WHEREIN THE WEDGE MAY BREAK DOWN FOR A NEAR IMMEDIATE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT, THE END RESULT BEING A RAINY BUT SEASONABLE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WITH
-RAPL MIX ACROSS FLORENCE AND ROBESON COUNTIES BUT NOT AT THE ASOS
SITES. WILL MENTION AT KFLO AND KLBT IN TEMPO GROUP A -RAPL MIX.
EXPECT ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WITH MAX UVM BETWEEN 04Z-08Z HAVE BROUGHT DOWN SITES TO LIFR
IN TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODEL SOUNDING DATA ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES STILL SHOW DRY AREA BETWEEN H9 AND H7 BUT THIS QUICKLY
MOISTEN UP AND BY 02Z COLUMN IS SATURATED AND STAYS THAT WAY TO
ABOUT 12Z WHEN DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WILL CUT
OFF PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS TIME BUT KEEP TERMINALS IN MVFR WITH
CEILING AND VSBY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR KLBT WILL HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 04Z-08Z FOR -SNPL WITH A PREVAILING GROUP AT 08Z FOR
-SNPL BEFORE MIXING BACK WITH -RA BY 10Z. WILL NOT HAVE -FZRA OR -PL
AT FLO AFT 03Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE TO E AT 10-15 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS 60-70 KT JET IS LOCATED AT H7 THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT WITH 95 KT WINDS AT H5. WOULD EXPECT SOME TURBULENCE
THROUGHOUT THIS LEVEL WITH WIND SPEED SHEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE
OVERNIGHT IN IFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS ESPECIALLY FROM 04-08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER DURING THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. INITIALLY A NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 10-15
KNOTS LEANING HEAVILY TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE. WITH THE
SPRAWLING HIGH MOVING SLOWLY...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE
SAME MANNER AND WINDS WILL REMAIN HERE UNTIL BASICALLY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE BUT BRIEF LULL EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE EARLY STAGES OF A COASTAL
TROUGH FORM. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WITH 5-8 FEET CONTINUING. BY
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE MODERATE RANGE OF 2-4 FEET
DEVELOPS. THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE IN THE DAY
LOOKS OK.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY SLIDING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A BROAD SWATH OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. CONDITIONS MAY GET
CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA CUTOFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LESS SHELTERED NC
WATERS. SUNDAY THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST BUT LEAVES BEHIND A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME AN OFFSHORE
TROUGHINESS SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER THE FLOW. PRETTY COMPLEX SETUP
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN LEAVING BEHIND HIGH
DUE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPSTATE
REGION OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE DECELERATING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEERS CONSIDERABLY OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN WATERS
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY. A NE FLOW RETURNS AREA-WIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH







000
FXUS62 KILM 260123
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
820 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY SOME CLEARING SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 820 PM WEDNESDAY...SLEET IS FALLING AS FAR EAST AS WILMINGTON
THIS EVENING...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS
WHITEVILLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
BETWEEN 2,000 AND 10,000 FEET AGL--MUCH DRIER THAN ANY MODEL
FORECAST. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND GSO SHOWED DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ANOTHER 10 DEGREES F WIDER THAN THE 18Z NAM OR GFS
THROUGH THAT LAYER. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION COOLED THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO MAKE A WRECK OF MY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER SHOULD RAISE AIR
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALONG WITH
A CONSIDERABLE INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMOVE ANY REMAINING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
EVENING I ANTICIPATE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES...PERHAPS AFFECTING
MAXTON IN WESTERN ROBESON COUNTY AS WELL.

I AM GROWING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP-AROUND COLD
AIR AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING CHANGING THE LAST OF THE RAIN
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. I HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORENCE...MARION AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER RAISING AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN IF THIS THREAT GROWS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE RACES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE LEAVING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. I DID LEAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY PLOD TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS BY MID MORNING.
BEYOND THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
WITH LOW CEILINGS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
OPTED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS VS THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT SURE WHEN WE`LL SEE SUNSHINE AGAIN.

AFTER A RAIN-FREE BUT PROBABLY CLOUDY DAY SATURDAY THE LONG TERM
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. SATURDAY THOUGH BRINGS ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW BUT ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH DEEP
INVERSION OR PERHAPS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST WITH ITS CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH. SUNDAY THE HIGH
TAKES ON MORE OF A WEDGE-LIKE ELONGATION INTO THE CAROLINAS.
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AS WELL BUT NOW APPEARS MUCH WEAKER.
AS SUCH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY BUT SOME
LOW POPS STILL LIKELY WARRANTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. SUNDAY HIGHS HAD
TO BE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY SPONSOR A DREARY
DAY WITH TEMPS MIRED IN THE 40S (MEANWHILE THE NORMAL HIGH CONTINUES
TO CREEP UPWARDS...NOW 63 FOR ILM). SPEAKING OF HIGHS IN THE
60S...MONDAY MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE AS SUCH. THE WEDGE BREAKS
DOWN ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO A DECELERATING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MAY CLIMB
CLOSE TO SEASONABLE DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE TEMPERATURES
BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
ON TUESDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY INSTEAD OF THE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST (IN ONE RUN THE MEX FCST
WENT FROM 65 TO 52!). FOR WEDNESDAY THE SETUP IS RATHER SIMILAR TO
MONDAY WHEREIN THE WEDGE MAY BREAK DOWN FOR A NEAR IMMEDIATE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT, THE END RESULT BEING A RAINY BUT SEASONABLE DAY.



&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WITH
-RAPL MIX ACROSS FLORENCE AND ROBESON COUNTIES BUT NOT AT THE ASOS
SITES. WILL MENTION AT KFLO AND KLBT IN TEMPO GROUP A -RAPL MIX.
EXPECT ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WITH MAX UVM BETWEEN 04Z-08Z HAVE BROUGHT DOWN SITES TO LIFR
IN TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODEL SOUNDING DATA ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES STILL SHOW DRY AREA BETWEEN H9 AND H7 BUT THIS QUICKLY
MOISTEN UP AND BY 02Z COLUMN IS SATURATED AND STAYS THAT WAY TO
ABOUT 12Z WHEN DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WILL CUT
OFF PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS TIME BUT KEEP TERMINALS IN MVFR WITH
CEILING AND VSBY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR KLBT WILL HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 04Z-08Z FOR -SNPL WITH A PREVAILING GROUP AT 08Z FOR
-SNPL BEFORE MIXING BACK WITH -RA BY 10Z. WILL NOT HAVE -FZRA OR -PL
AT FLO AFT 03Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE TO E AT 10-15 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS 60-70 KT JET IS LOCATED AT H7 THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT WITH 95 KT WINDS AT H5. WOULD EXPECT SOME TURBULENCE
THROUGHOUT THIS LEVEL WITH WIND SPEED SHEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE
OVERNIGHT IN IFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS ESPECIALLY FROM 04-08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER DURING THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. INITIALLY A NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 10-15
KNOTS LEANING HEAVILY TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE. WITH THE
SPRAWLING HIGH MOVING SLOWLY...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE
SAME MANNER AND WINDS WILL REMAIN HERE UNTIL BASICALLY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE BUT BRIEF LULL EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE EARLY STAGES OF A COASTAL
TROUGH FORM. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WITH 5-8 FEET CONTINUING. BY
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE MODERATE RANGE OF 2-4 FEET
DEVELOPS. THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE IN THE DAY
LOOKS OK.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY SLIDING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A BROAD SWATH OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. CONDITIONS MAY GET
CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA CUTOFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LESS SHELTERED NC
WATERS. SUNDAY THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST BUT LEAVES BEHIND A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME AN OFFSHORE
TROUGHINESS SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER THE FLOW. PRETTY COMPLEX SETUP
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN LEAVING BEHIND HIGH
DUE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPSTATE
REGION OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE DECELERATING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEERS CONSIDERABLY OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN WATERS
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY. A NE FLOW RETURNS AREA-WIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC









000
FXUS62 KILM 260123
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
820 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY SOME CLEARING SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 820 PM WEDNESDAY...SLEET IS FALLING AS FAR EAST AS WILMINGTON
THIS EVENING...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS
WHITEVILLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
BETWEEN 2,000 AND 10,000 FEET AGL--MUCH DRIER THAN ANY MODEL
FORECAST. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND GSO SHOWED DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ANOTHER 10 DEGREES F WIDER THAN THE 18Z NAM OR GFS
THROUGH THAT LAYER. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION COOLED THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO MAKE A WRECK OF MY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER SHOULD RAISE AIR
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALONG WITH
A CONSIDERABLE INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMOVE ANY REMAINING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. BY LATE
EVENING I ANTICIPATE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES...PERHAPS AFFECTING
MAXTON IN WESTERN ROBESON COUNTY AS WELL.

I AM GROWING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP-AROUND COLD
AIR AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING CHANGING THE LAST OF THE RAIN
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. I HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORENCE...MARION AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER RAISING AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN IF THIS THREAT GROWS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE RACES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE LEAVING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. I DID LEAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY PLOD TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS BY MID MORNING.
BEYOND THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
WITH LOW CEILINGS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
OPTED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS VS THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT SURE WHEN WE`LL SEE SUNSHINE AGAIN.

AFTER A RAIN-FREE BUT PROBABLY CLOUDY DAY SATURDAY THE LONG TERM
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. SATURDAY THOUGH BRINGS ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW BUT ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH DEEP
INVERSION OR PERHAPS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST WITH ITS CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH. SUNDAY THE HIGH
TAKES ON MORE OF A WEDGE-LIKE ELONGATION INTO THE CAROLINAS.
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AS WELL BUT NOW APPEARS MUCH WEAKER.
AS SUCH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY BUT SOME
LOW POPS STILL LIKELY WARRANTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. SUNDAY HIGHS HAD
TO BE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY SPONSOR A DREARY
DAY WITH TEMPS MIRED IN THE 40S (MEANWHILE THE NORMAL HIGH CONTINUES
TO CREEP UPWARDS...NOW 63 FOR ILM). SPEAKING OF HIGHS IN THE
60S...MONDAY MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE AS SUCH. THE WEDGE BREAKS
DOWN ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO A DECELERATING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MAY CLIMB
CLOSE TO SEASONABLE DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE TEMPERATURES
BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
ON TUESDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY INSTEAD OF THE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST (IN ONE RUN THE MEX FCST
WENT FROM 65 TO 52!). FOR WEDNESDAY THE SETUP IS RATHER SIMILAR TO
MONDAY WHEREIN THE WEDGE MAY BREAK DOWN FOR A NEAR IMMEDIATE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT, THE END RESULT BEING A RAINY BUT SEASONABLE DAY.



&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WITH
-RAPL MIX ACROSS FLORENCE AND ROBESON COUNTIES BUT NOT AT THE ASOS
SITES. WILL MENTION AT KFLO AND KLBT IN TEMPO GROUP A -RAPL MIX.
EXPECT ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WITH MAX UVM BETWEEN 04Z-08Z HAVE BROUGHT DOWN SITES TO LIFR
IN TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODEL SOUNDING DATA ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES STILL SHOW DRY AREA BETWEEN H9 AND H7 BUT THIS QUICKLY
MOISTEN UP AND BY 02Z COLUMN IS SATURATED AND STAYS THAT WAY TO
ABOUT 12Z WHEN DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WILL CUT
OFF PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS TIME BUT KEEP TERMINALS IN MVFR WITH
CEILING AND VSBY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR KLBT WILL HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 04Z-08Z FOR -SNPL WITH A PREVAILING GROUP AT 08Z FOR
-SNPL BEFORE MIXING BACK WITH -RA BY 10Z. WILL NOT HAVE -FZRA OR -PL
AT FLO AFT 03Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE TO E AT 10-15 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS 60-70 KT JET IS LOCATED AT H7 THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT WITH 95 KT WINDS AT H5. WOULD EXPECT SOME TURBULENCE
THROUGHOUT THIS LEVEL WITH WIND SPEED SHEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE
OVERNIGHT IN IFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS ESPECIALLY FROM 04-08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER DURING THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. INITIALLY A NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 10-15
KNOTS LEANING HEAVILY TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE. WITH THE
SPRAWLING HIGH MOVING SLOWLY...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE
SAME MANNER AND WINDS WILL REMAIN HERE UNTIL BASICALLY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE BUT BRIEF LULL EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE EARLY STAGES OF A COASTAL
TROUGH FORM. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WITH 5-8 FEET CONTINUING. BY
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE MODERATE RANGE OF 2-4 FEET
DEVELOPS. THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE IN THE DAY
LOOKS OK.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY SLIDING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A BROAD SWATH OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. CONDITIONS MAY GET
CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA CUTOFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LESS SHELTERED NC
WATERS. SUNDAY THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST BUT LEAVES BEHIND A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME AN OFFSHORE
TROUGHINESS SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER THE FLOW. PRETTY COMPLEX SETUP
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN LEAVING BEHIND HIGH
DUE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPSTATE
REGION OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE DECELERATING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEERS CONSIDERABLY OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN WATERS
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY. A NE FLOW RETURNS AREA-WIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC









000
FXUS62 KILM 252344
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
644 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY SOME CLEARING SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE SPREAD NOTED IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARM NOSE ALOFT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE 18Z NAM WAS ON THE
WARM EXTREME AND IS BEING DISCOUNTED. THE 18Z GFS AND 22Z RUC WERE
CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND SUGGEST A NARROWER BUT STILL DEEP WARM NOSE
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND
WEST OF I-95 THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE COLUMN MAY STILL COOL
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW TO DEVELOP.

COMPLICATING ALL THIS IS CONSIDERABLE SLEET AND EVEN SOME SNOW BEING
REPORTED ON THE FRONT EDGE OF ALL THIS PRECIPITATION COMING INTO THE
AREA. MY EXPECTATION IS AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS SHOULD
BECOME MAINLY A RAIN EVENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR IN ALL BUT THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. I AM ALSO CONCERNED
ABOUT SHALLOW COLD AIR SWEEPING SOUTHWARD AROUND
SUNRISE...POTENTIALLY CREATING FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF WHERE WE
CURRENTLY HAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED. I WILL INVESTIGATE
THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER THIS EVENING...BUT MY BIGGEST CONCERN IS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLUMBUS...NORTHERN HORRY...MARION AND FLORENCE
COUNTIES IN THE 5-9 AM TIME FRAME THURSDAY MORNING.

I HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADDING
IN THE EVENING FROZEN PRECIPITATION WE ARE NOW EXPERIENCING...AND
INCREASING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN SECTIONS OF DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES.
COUNTY AVERAGES FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN 1-2 INCHES...BUT I
SUSPECT THAT EXTREME NORTHERN MARLBORO COUNTY NEAR THE RICHMOND
COUNTY LINE COULD BE LOOKING AT 3-4 INCHES ON THE GROUND BY TOMORROW
MORNING. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...FROM PENDER AND BLADEN...ACROSS ROBESON AND DILLON AND
THEN WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO INCLUDE MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON
COUNTIES. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO INCLUDE...SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. THE
HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM MID EVE THROUGH ABOUT
3/4 AM...ALTHOUGH WINTRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THU MORNING IN
THESE AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS HEAVIER...IT WILL HELP TO COOL THE
COLUMN. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SLEET...ESPECIALLY MID AND LATE EVE WHEN DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD BE
STRONGEST...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. OVERALL...THE MODEL
TREND HAS BEEN WARMER IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A SIGNIFICANT PORTION
OF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED TO RISE A DEG OR TWO ABOVE ZERO DEG C LATE
EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL MELT THE SNOW AS IT
FALLS TO THE GROUND. BELOW 2 KFT OR SO...TEMPS ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY
IS SUPPORTING MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE
STORM WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LESS FROZEN ACCUMULATION ON THE GROUND
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL. ALSO...WITHOUT A COLD PARENT HIGH TO OUR
N...WET BULB TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HIGHER
WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN.
ALSO...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MANAGED TO REACH INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO
ALLEVIATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EARLY EVE HOURS.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW AND SLEET FROM N OF
DARLINGTON TO BENNETTSVILLE TO N OF LUMBERTON. IN THIS AREA...
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS NEAR OF JUST IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
SOME FROZEN ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORENCE TO
DILLON TO NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET HERE. AS
FAR AS FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION...THE RISK FOR THIS WILL BE HIGHEST
VERY LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING WHEN AIR TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING. BY THIS TIME...THERE WILL BE NO ICE IN THE CLOUDS
AND SOME DRY SLOTTING WILL LIKELY HAVE NOSED INTO THE AREA. THUS...
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. WILL FORECAST LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE FROM THE NW CORNER OF PENDER COUNTY THROUGH
EYF AND LBT TO BEAR BBP AND HARTSVILLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING A COLD RAIN. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS
EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO ONE AND TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH.

A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL FURTHER DEAMPLIFY AS IT
PUSHES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VLY...THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING
JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK THU. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD...INTO A
COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LOW TRACK...IT WILL BE JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. AS YOU MOVE PROGRESSIVELY N AND W OF THE LOW
TRACK...THE RISK OF WINTRY WEATHER INCREASES AS DO THE ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE RACES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE LEAVING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. I DID LEAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY PLOD TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS BY MID MORNING.
BEYOND THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
WITH LOW CEILINGS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
OPTED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS VS THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT SURE WHEN WE`LL SEE SUNSHINE AGAIN.

AFTER A RAIN-FREE BUT PROBABLY CLOUDY DAY SATURDAY THE LONG TERM
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. SATURDAY THOUGH BRINGS ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW BUT ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH DEEP
INVERSION OR PERHAPS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST WITH ITS CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH. SUNDAY THE HIGH
TAKES ON MORE OF A WEDGE-LIKE ELONGATION INTO THE CAROLINAS.
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AS WELL BUT NOW APPEARS MUCH WEAKER.
AS SUCH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY BUT SOME
LOW POPS STILL LIKELY WARRANTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. SUNDAY HIGHS HAD
TO BE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY SPONSOR A DREARY
DAY WITH TEMPS MIRED IN THE 40S (MEANWHILE THE NORMAL HIGH CONTINUES
TO CREEP UPWARDS...NOW 63 FOR ILM). SPEAKING OF HIGHS IN THE
60S...MONDAY MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE AS SUCH. THE WEDGE BREAKS
DOWN ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO A DECELERATING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MAY CLIMB
CLOSE TO SEASONABLE DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE TEMPERATURES
BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
ON TUESDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY INSTEAD OF THE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST (IN ONE RUN THE MEX FCST
WENT FROM 65 TO 52!). FOR WEDNESDAY THE SETUP IS RATHER SIMILAR TO
MONDAY WHEREIN THE WEDGE MAY BREAK DOWN FOR A NEAR IMMEDIATE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT, THE END RESULT BEING A RAINY BUT SEASONABLE DAY.



&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WITH
-RAPL MIX ACROSS FLORENCE AND ROBESON COUNTIES BUT NOT AT THE ASOS
SITES. WILL MENTION AT KFLO AND KLBT IN TEMPO GROUP A -RAPL MIX.
EXPECT ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WITH MAX UVM BETWEEN 04Z-08Z HAVE BROUGHT DOWN SITES TO LIFR
IN TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODEL SOUNDING DATA ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES STILL SHOW DRY AREA BETWEEN H9 AND H7 BUT THIS QUICKLY
MOISTEN UP AND BY 02Z COLUMN IS SATURATED AND STAYS THAT WAY TO
ABOUT 12Z WHEN DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WILL CUT
OFF PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS TIME BUT KEEP TERMINALS IN MVFR WITH
CEILING AND VSBY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR KLBT WILL HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 04Z-08Z FOR -SNPL WITH A PREVAILING GROUP AT 08Z FOR
-SNPL BEFORE MIXING BACK WITH -RA BY 10Z. WILL NOT HAVE -FZRA OR -PL
AT FLO AFT 03Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE TO E AT 10-15 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS 60-70 KT JET IS LOCATED AT H7 THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT WITH 95 KT WINDS AT H5. WOULD EXPECT SOME TURBULENCE
THROUGHOUT THIS LEVEL WITH WIND SPEED SHEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE
OVERNIGHT IN IFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS ESPECIALLY FROM 04-08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER DURING THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. INITIALLY A NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 10-15
KNOTS LEANING HEAVILY TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE. WITH THE
SPRAWLING HIGH MOVING SLOWLY...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE
SAME MANNER AND WINDS WILL REMAIN HERE UNTIL BASICALLY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE BUT BRIEF LULL EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE EARLY STAGES OF A COASTAL
TROUGH FORM. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WITH 5-8 FEET CONTINUING. BY
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE MODERATE RANGE OF 2-4 FEET
DEVELOPS. THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE IN THE DAY
LOOKS OK.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY SLIDING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A BROAD SWATH OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. CONDITIONS MAY GET
CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA CUTOFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LESS SHELTERED NC
WATERS. SUNDAY THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST BUT LEAVES BEHIND A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME AN OFFSHORE
TROUGHINESS SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER THE FLOW. PRETTY COMPLEX SETUP
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN LEAVING BEHIND HIGH
DUE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPSTATE
REGION OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE DECELERATING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEERS CONSIDERABLY OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN WATERS
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY. A NE FLOW RETURNS AREA-WIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC






000
FXUS62 KILM 252344
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
644 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY SOME CLEARING SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE SPREAD NOTED IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARM NOSE ALOFT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE 18Z NAM WAS ON THE
WARM EXTREME AND IS BEING DISCOUNTED. THE 18Z GFS AND 22Z RUC WERE
CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND SUGGEST A NARROWER BUT STILL DEEP WARM NOSE
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND
WEST OF I-95 THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE COLUMN MAY STILL COOL
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW TO DEVELOP.

COMPLICATING ALL THIS IS CONSIDERABLE SLEET AND EVEN SOME SNOW BEING
REPORTED ON THE FRONT EDGE OF ALL THIS PRECIPITATION COMING INTO THE
AREA. MY EXPECTATION IS AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS SHOULD
BECOME MAINLY A RAIN EVENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR IN ALL BUT THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. I AM ALSO CONCERNED
ABOUT SHALLOW COLD AIR SWEEPING SOUTHWARD AROUND
SUNRISE...POTENTIALLY CREATING FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF WHERE WE
CURRENTLY HAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED. I WILL INVESTIGATE
THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER THIS EVENING...BUT MY BIGGEST CONCERN IS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLUMBUS...NORTHERN HORRY...MARION AND FLORENCE
COUNTIES IN THE 5-9 AM TIME FRAME THURSDAY MORNING.

I HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADDING
IN THE EVENING FROZEN PRECIPITATION WE ARE NOW EXPERIENCING...AND
INCREASING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN SECTIONS OF DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES.
COUNTY AVERAGES FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN 1-2 INCHES...BUT I
SUSPECT THAT EXTREME NORTHERN MARLBORO COUNTY NEAR THE RICHMOND
COUNTY LINE COULD BE LOOKING AT 3-4 INCHES ON THE GROUND BY TOMORROW
MORNING. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...FROM PENDER AND BLADEN...ACROSS ROBESON AND DILLON AND
THEN WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO INCLUDE MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON
COUNTIES. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO INCLUDE...SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. THE
HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM MID EVE THROUGH ABOUT
3/4 AM...ALTHOUGH WINTRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THU MORNING IN
THESE AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS HEAVIER...IT WILL HELP TO COOL THE
COLUMN. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SLEET...ESPECIALLY MID AND LATE EVE WHEN DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD BE
STRONGEST...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. OVERALL...THE MODEL
TREND HAS BEEN WARMER IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A SIGNIFICANT PORTION
OF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED TO RISE A DEG OR TWO ABOVE ZERO DEG C LATE
EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL MELT THE SNOW AS IT
FALLS TO THE GROUND. BELOW 2 KFT OR SO...TEMPS ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY
IS SUPPORTING MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE
STORM WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LESS FROZEN ACCUMULATION ON THE GROUND
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL. ALSO...WITHOUT A COLD PARENT HIGH TO OUR
N...WET BULB TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HIGHER
WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN.
ALSO...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MANAGED TO REACH INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO
ALLEVIATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EARLY EVE HOURS.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW AND SLEET FROM N OF
DARLINGTON TO BENNETTSVILLE TO N OF LUMBERTON. IN THIS AREA...
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS NEAR OF JUST IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
SOME FROZEN ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORENCE TO
DILLON TO NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET HERE. AS
FAR AS FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION...THE RISK FOR THIS WILL BE HIGHEST
VERY LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING WHEN AIR TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING. BY THIS TIME...THERE WILL BE NO ICE IN THE CLOUDS
AND SOME DRY SLOTTING WILL LIKELY HAVE NOSED INTO THE AREA. THUS...
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. WILL FORECAST LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE FROM THE NW CORNER OF PENDER COUNTY THROUGH
EYF AND LBT TO BEAR BBP AND HARTSVILLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING A COLD RAIN. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS
EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO ONE AND TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH.

A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL FURTHER DEAMPLIFY AS IT
PUSHES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VLY...THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING
JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK THU. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD...INTO A
COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LOW TRACK...IT WILL BE JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. AS YOU MOVE PROGRESSIVELY N AND W OF THE LOW
TRACK...THE RISK OF WINTRY WEATHER INCREASES AS DO THE ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE RACES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE LEAVING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. I DID LEAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY PLOD TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS BY MID MORNING.
BEYOND THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
WITH LOW CEILINGS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
OPTED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS VS THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT SURE WHEN WE`LL SEE SUNSHINE AGAIN.

AFTER A RAIN-FREE BUT PROBABLY CLOUDY DAY SATURDAY THE LONG TERM
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. SATURDAY THOUGH BRINGS ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW BUT ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH DEEP
INVERSION OR PERHAPS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST WITH ITS CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH. SUNDAY THE HIGH
TAKES ON MORE OF A WEDGE-LIKE ELONGATION INTO THE CAROLINAS.
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AS WELL BUT NOW APPEARS MUCH WEAKER.
AS SUCH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY BUT SOME
LOW POPS STILL LIKELY WARRANTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. SUNDAY HIGHS HAD
TO BE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY SPONSOR A DREARY
DAY WITH TEMPS MIRED IN THE 40S (MEANWHILE THE NORMAL HIGH CONTINUES
TO CREEP UPWARDS...NOW 63 FOR ILM). SPEAKING OF HIGHS IN THE
60S...MONDAY MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE AS SUCH. THE WEDGE BREAKS
DOWN ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO A DECELERATING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MAY CLIMB
CLOSE TO SEASONABLE DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE TEMPERATURES
BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
ON TUESDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY INSTEAD OF THE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST (IN ONE RUN THE MEX FCST
WENT FROM 65 TO 52!). FOR WEDNESDAY THE SETUP IS RATHER SIMILAR TO
MONDAY WHEREIN THE WEDGE MAY BREAK DOWN FOR A NEAR IMMEDIATE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT, THE END RESULT BEING A RAINY BUT SEASONABLE DAY.



&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WITH
-RAPL MIX ACROSS FLORENCE AND ROBESON COUNTIES BUT NOT AT THE ASOS
SITES. WILL MENTION AT KFLO AND KLBT IN TEMPO GROUP A -RAPL MIX.
EXPECT ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WITH MAX UVM BETWEEN 04Z-08Z HAVE BROUGHT DOWN SITES TO LIFR
IN TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODEL SOUNDING DATA ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES STILL SHOW DRY AREA BETWEEN H9 AND H7 BUT THIS QUICKLY
MOISTEN UP AND BY 02Z COLUMN IS SATURATED AND STAYS THAT WAY TO
ABOUT 12Z WHEN DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WILL CUT
OFF PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS TIME BUT KEEP TERMINALS IN MVFR WITH
CEILING AND VSBY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR KLBT WILL HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 04Z-08Z FOR -SNPL WITH A PREVAILING GROUP AT 08Z FOR
-SNPL BEFORE MIXING BACK WITH -RA BY 10Z. WILL NOT HAVE -FZRA OR -PL
AT FLO AFT 03Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE TO E AT 10-15 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS 60-70 KT JET IS LOCATED AT H7 THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT WITH 95 KT WINDS AT H5. WOULD EXPECT SOME TURBULENCE
THROUGHOUT THIS LEVEL WITH WIND SPEED SHEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE
OVERNIGHT IN IFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS ESPECIALLY FROM 04-08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER DURING THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. INITIALLY A NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 10-15
KNOTS LEANING HEAVILY TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE. WITH THE
SPRAWLING HIGH MOVING SLOWLY...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE
SAME MANNER AND WINDS WILL REMAIN HERE UNTIL BASICALLY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE BUT BRIEF LULL EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE EARLY STAGES OF A COASTAL
TROUGH FORM. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WITH 5-8 FEET CONTINUING. BY
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE MODERATE RANGE OF 2-4 FEET
DEVELOPS. THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE IN THE DAY
LOOKS OK.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY SLIDING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A BROAD SWATH OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. CONDITIONS MAY GET
CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA CUTOFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LESS SHELTERED NC
WATERS. SUNDAY THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST BUT LEAVES BEHIND A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME AN OFFSHORE
TROUGHINESS SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER THE FLOW. PRETTY COMPLEX SETUP
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN LEAVING BEHIND HIGH
DUE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPSTATE
REGION OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE DECELERATING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEERS CONSIDERABLY OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN WATERS
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY. A NE FLOW RETURNS AREA-WIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC






000
FXUS62 KILM 252344
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
644 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY SOME CLEARING SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE SPREAD NOTED IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARM NOSE ALOFT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE 18Z NAM WAS ON THE
WARM EXTREME AND IS BEING DISCOUNTED. THE 18Z GFS AND 22Z RUC WERE
CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND SUGGEST A NARROWER BUT STILL DEEP WARM NOSE
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND
WEST OF I-95 THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE COLUMN MAY STILL COOL
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW TO DEVELOP.

COMPLICATING ALL THIS IS CONSIDERABLE SLEET AND EVEN SOME SNOW BEING
REPORTED ON THE FRONT EDGE OF ALL THIS PRECIPITATION COMING INTO THE
AREA. MY EXPECTATION IS AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS SHOULD
BECOME MAINLY A RAIN EVENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR IN ALL BUT THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. I AM ALSO CONCERNED
ABOUT SHALLOW COLD AIR SWEEPING SOUTHWARD AROUND
SUNRISE...POTENTIALLY CREATING FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF WHERE WE
CURRENTLY HAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED. I WILL INVESTIGATE
THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER THIS EVENING...BUT MY BIGGEST CONCERN IS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLUMBUS...NORTHERN HORRY...MARION AND FLORENCE
COUNTIES IN THE 5-9 AM TIME FRAME THURSDAY MORNING.

I HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADDING
IN THE EVENING FROZEN PRECIPITATION WE ARE NOW EXPERIENCING...AND
INCREASING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN SECTIONS OF DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES.
COUNTY AVERAGES FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN 1-2 INCHES...BUT I
SUSPECT THAT EXTREME NORTHERN MARLBORO COUNTY NEAR THE RICHMOND
COUNTY LINE COULD BE LOOKING AT 3-4 INCHES ON THE GROUND BY TOMORROW
MORNING. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...FROM PENDER AND BLADEN...ACROSS ROBESON AND DILLON AND
THEN WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO INCLUDE MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON
COUNTIES. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO INCLUDE...SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. THE
HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM MID EVE THROUGH ABOUT
3/4 AM...ALTHOUGH WINTRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THU MORNING IN
THESE AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS HEAVIER...IT WILL HELP TO COOL THE
COLUMN. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SLEET...ESPECIALLY MID AND LATE EVE WHEN DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD BE
STRONGEST...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. OVERALL...THE MODEL
TREND HAS BEEN WARMER IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A SIGNIFICANT PORTION
OF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED TO RISE A DEG OR TWO ABOVE ZERO DEG C LATE
EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL MELT THE SNOW AS IT
FALLS TO THE GROUND. BELOW 2 KFT OR SO...TEMPS ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY
IS SUPPORTING MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE
STORM WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LESS FROZEN ACCUMULATION ON THE GROUND
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL. ALSO...WITHOUT A COLD PARENT HIGH TO OUR
N...WET BULB TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HIGHER
WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN.
ALSO...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MANAGED TO REACH INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO
ALLEVIATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EARLY EVE HOURS.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW AND SLEET FROM N OF
DARLINGTON TO BENNETTSVILLE TO N OF LUMBERTON. IN THIS AREA...
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS NEAR OF JUST IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
SOME FROZEN ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORENCE TO
DILLON TO NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET HERE. AS
FAR AS FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION...THE RISK FOR THIS WILL BE HIGHEST
VERY LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING WHEN AIR TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING. BY THIS TIME...THERE WILL BE NO ICE IN THE CLOUDS
AND SOME DRY SLOTTING WILL LIKELY HAVE NOSED INTO THE AREA. THUS...
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. WILL FORECAST LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE FROM THE NW CORNER OF PENDER COUNTY THROUGH
EYF AND LBT TO BEAR BBP AND HARTSVILLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING A COLD RAIN. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS
EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO ONE AND TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH.

A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL FURTHER DEAMPLIFY AS IT
PUSHES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VLY...THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING
JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK THU. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD...INTO A
COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LOW TRACK...IT WILL BE JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. AS YOU MOVE PROGRESSIVELY N AND W OF THE LOW
TRACK...THE RISK OF WINTRY WEATHER INCREASES AS DO THE ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE RACES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE LEAVING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. I DID LEAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY PLOD TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS BY MID MORNING.
BEYOND THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
WITH LOW CEILINGS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
OPTED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS VS THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT SURE WHEN WE`LL SEE SUNSHINE AGAIN.

AFTER A RAIN-FREE BUT PROBABLY CLOUDY DAY SATURDAY THE LONG TERM
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. SATURDAY THOUGH BRINGS ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW BUT ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH DEEP
INVERSION OR PERHAPS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST WITH ITS CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH. SUNDAY THE HIGH
TAKES ON MORE OF A WEDGE-LIKE ELONGATION INTO THE CAROLINAS.
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AS WELL BUT NOW APPEARS MUCH WEAKER.
AS SUCH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY BUT SOME
LOW POPS STILL LIKELY WARRANTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. SUNDAY HIGHS HAD
TO BE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY SPONSOR A DREARY
DAY WITH TEMPS MIRED IN THE 40S (MEANWHILE THE NORMAL HIGH CONTINUES
TO CREEP UPWARDS...NOW 63 FOR ILM). SPEAKING OF HIGHS IN THE
60S...MONDAY MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE AS SUCH. THE WEDGE BREAKS
DOWN ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO A DECELERATING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MAY CLIMB
CLOSE TO SEASONABLE DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE TEMPERATURES
BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
ON TUESDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY INSTEAD OF THE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST (IN ONE RUN THE MEX FCST
WENT FROM 65 TO 52!). FOR WEDNESDAY THE SETUP IS RATHER SIMILAR TO
MONDAY WHEREIN THE WEDGE MAY BREAK DOWN FOR A NEAR IMMEDIATE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT, THE END RESULT BEING A RAINY BUT SEASONABLE DAY.



&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WITH
-RAPL MIX ACROSS FLORENCE AND ROBESON COUNTIES BUT NOT AT THE ASOS
SITES. WILL MENTION AT KFLO AND KLBT IN TEMPO GROUP A -RAPL MIX.
EXPECT ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WITH MAX UVM BETWEEN 04Z-08Z HAVE BROUGHT DOWN SITES TO LIFR
IN TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODEL SOUNDING DATA ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES STILL SHOW DRY AREA BETWEEN H9 AND H7 BUT THIS QUICKLY
MOISTEN UP AND BY 02Z COLUMN IS SATURATED AND STAYS THAT WAY TO
ABOUT 12Z WHEN DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WILL CUT
OFF PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS TIME BUT KEEP TERMINALS IN MVFR WITH
CEILING AND VSBY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR KLBT WILL HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 04Z-08Z FOR -SNPL WITH A PREVAILING GROUP AT 08Z FOR
-SNPL BEFORE MIXING BACK WITH -RA BY 10Z. WILL NOT HAVE -FZRA OR -PL
AT FLO AFT 03Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE TO E AT 10-15 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS 60-70 KT JET IS LOCATED AT H7 THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT WITH 95 KT WINDS AT H5. WOULD EXPECT SOME TURBULENCE
THROUGHOUT THIS LEVEL WITH WIND SPEED SHEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE
OVERNIGHT IN IFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS ESPECIALLY FROM 04-08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER DURING THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. INITIALLY A NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 10-15
KNOTS LEANING HEAVILY TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE. WITH THE
SPRAWLING HIGH MOVING SLOWLY...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE
SAME MANNER AND WINDS WILL REMAIN HERE UNTIL BASICALLY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE BUT BRIEF LULL EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE EARLY STAGES OF A COASTAL
TROUGH FORM. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WITH 5-8 FEET CONTINUING. BY
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE MODERATE RANGE OF 2-4 FEET
DEVELOPS. THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE IN THE DAY
LOOKS OK.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY SLIDING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A BROAD SWATH OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. CONDITIONS MAY GET
CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA CUTOFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LESS SHELTERED NC
WATERS. SUNDAY THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST BUT LEAVES BEHIND A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME AN OFFSHORE
TROUGHINESS SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER THE FLOW. PRETTY COMPLEX SETUP
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN LEAVING BEHIND HIGH
DUE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPSTATE
REGION OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE DECELERATING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEERS CONSIDERABLY OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN WATERS
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY. A NE FLOW RETURNS AREA-WIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC







000
FXUS62 KILM 252344
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
644 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY SOME CLEARING SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE SPREAD NOTED IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARM NOSE ALOFT IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE 18Z NAM WAS ON THE
WARM EXTREME AND IS BEING DISCOUNTED. THE 18Z GFS AND 22Z RUC WERE
CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND SUGGEST A NARROWER BUT STILL DEEP WARM NOSE
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND
WEST OF I-95 THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE COLUMN MAY STILL COOL
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW TO DEVELOP.

COMPLICATING ALL THIS IS CONSIDERABLE SLEET AND EVEN SOME SNOW BEING
REPORTED ON THE FRONT EDGE OF ALL THIS PRECIPITATION COMING INTO THE
AREA. MY EXPECTATION IS AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS SHOULD
BECOME MAINLY A RAIN EVENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR IN ALL BUT THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. I AM ALSO CONCERNED
ABOUT SHALLOW COLD AIR SWEEPING SOUTHWARD AROUND
SUNRISE...POTENTIALLY CREATING FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF WHERE WE
CURRENTLY HAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED. I WILL INVESTIGATE
THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER THIS EVENING...BUT MY BIGGEST CONCERN IS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLUMBUS...NORTHERN HORRY...MARION AND FLORENCE
COUNTIES IN THE 5-9 AM TIME FRAME THURSDAY MORNING.

I HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADDING
IN THE EVENING FROZEN PRECIPITATION WE ARE NOW EXPERIENCING...AND
INCREASING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN SECTIONS OF DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES.
COUNTY AVERAGES FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN 1-2 INCHES...BUT I
SUSPECT THAT EXTREME NORTHERN MARLBORO COUNTY NEAR THE RICHMOND
COUNTY LINE COULD BE LOOKING AT 3-4 INCHES ON THE GROUND BY TOMORROW
MORNING. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...FROM PENDER AND BLADEN...ACROSS ROBESON AND DILLON AND
THEN WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO INCLUDE MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON
COUNTIES. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO INCLUDE...SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. THE
HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM MID EVE THROUGH ABOUT
3/4 AM...ALTHOUGH WINTRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THU MORNING IN
THESE AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS HEAVIER...IT WILL HELP TO COOL THE
COLUMN. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SLEET...ESPECIALLY MID AND LATE EVE WHEN DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD BE
STRONGEST...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. OVERALL...THE MODEL
TREND HAS BEEN WARMER IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A SIGNIFICANT PORTION
OF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED TO RISE A DEG OR TWO ABOVE ZERO DEG C LATE
EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL MELT THE SNOW AS IT
FALLS TO THE GROUND. BELOW 2 KFT OR SO...TEMPS ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY
IS SUPPORTING MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE
STORM WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LESS FROZEN ACCUMULATION ON THE GROUND
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL. ALSO...WITHOUT A COLD PARENT HIGH TO OUR
N...WET BULB TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HIGHER
WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN.
ALSO...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MANAGED TO REACH INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO
ALLEVIATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EARLY EVE HOURS.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW AND SLEET FROM N OF
DARLINGTON TO BENNETTSVILLE TO N OF LUMBERTON. IN THIS AREA...
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS NEAR OF JUST IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
SOME FROZEN ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORENCE TO
DILLON TO NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET HERE. AS
FAR AS FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION...THE RISK FOR THIS WILL BE HIGHEST
VERY LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING WHEN AIR TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING. BY THIS TIME...THERE WILL BE NO ICE IN THE CLOUDS
AND SOME DRY SLOTTING WILL LIKELY HAVE NOSED INTO THE AREA. THUS...
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. WILL FORECAST LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE FROM THE NW CORNER OF PENDER COUNTY THROUGH
EYF AND LBT TO BEAR BBP AND HARTSVILLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING A COLD RAIN. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS
EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO ONE AND TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH.

A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL FURTHER DEAMPLIFY AS IT
PUSHES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VLY...THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING
JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK THU. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD...INTO A
COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LOW TRACK...IT WILL BE JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. AS YOU MOVE PROGRESSIVELY N AND W OF THE LOW
TRACK...THE RISK OF WINTRY WEATHER INCREASES AS DO THE ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE RACES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE LEAVING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. I DID LEAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY PLOD TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS BY MID MORNING.
BEYOND THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
WITH LOW CEILINGS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
OPTED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS VS THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT SURE WHEN WE`LL SEE SUNSHINE AGAIN.

AFTER A RAIN-FREE BUT PROBABLY CLOUDY DAY SATURDAY THE LONG TERM
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. SATURDAY THOUGH BRINGS ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW BUT ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH DEEP
INVERSION OR PERHAPS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST WITH ITS CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH. SUNDAY THE HIGH
TAKES ON MORE OF A WEDGE-LIKE ELONGATION INTO THE CAROLINAS.
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AS WELL BUT NOW APPEARS MUCH WEAKER.
AS SUCH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY BUT SOME
LOW POPS STILL LIKELY WARRANTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. SUNDAY HIGHS HAD
TO BE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY SPONSOR A DREARY
DAY WITH TEMPS MIRED IN THE 40S (MEANWHILE THE NORMAL HIGH CONTINUES
TO CREEP UPWARDS...NOW 63 FOR ILM). SPEAKING OF HIGHS IN THE
60S...MONDAY MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE AS SUCH. THE WEDGE BREAKS
DOWN ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO A DECELERATING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MAY CLIMB
CLOSE TO SEASONABLE DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE TEMPERATURES
BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
ON TUESDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY INSTEAD OF THE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST (IN ONE RUN THE MEX FCST
WENT FROM 65 TO 52!). FOR WEDNESDAY THE SETUP IS RATHER SIMILAR TO
MONDAY WHEREIN THE WEDGE MAY BREAK DOWN FOR A NEAR IMMEDIATE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT, THE END RESULT BEING A RAINY BUT SEASONABLE DAY.



&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WITH
-RAPL MIX ACROSS FLORENCE AND ROBESON COUNTIES BUT NOT AT THE ASOS
SITES. WILL MENTION AT KFLO AND KLBT IN TEMPO GROUP A -RAPL MIX.
EXPECT ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WITH MAX UVM BETWEEN 04Z-08Z HAVE BROUGHT DOWN SITES TO LIFR
IN TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODEL SOUNDING DATA ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES STILL SHOW DRY AREA BETWEEN H9 AND H7 BUT THIS QUICKLY
MOISTEN UP AND BY 02Z COLUMN IS SATURATED AND STAYS THAT WAY TO
ABOUT 12Z WHEN DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WILL CUT
OFF PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS TIME BUT KEEP TERMINALS IN MVFR WITH
CEILING AND VSBY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR KLBT WILL HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 04Z-08Z FOR -SNPL WITH A PREVAILING GROUP AT 08Z FOR
-SNPL BEFORE MIXING BACK WITH -RA BY 10Z. WILL NOT HAVE -FZRA OR -PL
AT FLO AFT 03Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE TO E AT 10-15 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS 60-70 KT JET IS LOCATED AT H7 THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT WITH 95 KT WINDS AT H5. WOULD EXPECT SOME TURBULENCE
THROUGHOUT THIS LEVEL WITH WIND SPEED SHEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE
OVERNIGHT IN IFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS ESPECIALLY FROM 04-08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE RATE OF INCREASE IN FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. OUR
LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL HAS A WELL-KNOWN BIAS OF INCREASING SEAS MUCH
TOO QUICKLY IN PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING WIND. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN
UP THE CAROLINA COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9
FT...10 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER DURING THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. INITIALLY A NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 10-15
KNOTS LEANING HEAVILY TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE. WITH THE
SPRAWLING HIGH MOVING SLOWLY...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE
SAME MANNER AND WINDS WILL REMAIN HERE UNTIL BASICALLY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE BUT BRIEF LULL EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE EARLY STAGES OF A COASTAL
TROUGH FORM. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WITH 5-8 FEET CONTINUING. BY
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE MODERATE RANGE OF 2-4 FEET
DEVELOPS. THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE IN THE DAY
LOOKS OK.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY SLIDING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A BROAD SWATH OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. CONDITIONS MAY GET
CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA CUTOFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LESS SHELTERED NC
WATERS. SUNDAY THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST BUT LEAVES BEHIND A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME AN OFFSHORE
TROUGHINESS SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER THE FLOW. PRETTY COMPLEX SETUP
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN LEAVING BEHIND HIGH
DUE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPSTATE
REGION OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE DECELERATING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEERS CONSIDERABLY OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN WATERS
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY. A NE FLOW RETURNS AREA-WIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC







000
FXUS62 KILM 252006
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
306 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. MIXED
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS AS
WELL. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY SOME CLEARING SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...FROM PENDER AND BLADEN...ACROSS
ROBESON AND DILLON AND THEN WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO INCLUDE
MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A
MIXED BAG OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO INCLUDE...SLEET...SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
MID EVE THROUGH ABOUT 3/4 AM...ALTHOUGH WINTRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO THU MORNING IN THESE AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AS RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS HEAVIER...IT WILL HELP TO COOL THE
COLUMN. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SLEET...ESPECIALLY MID AND LATE EVE WHEN DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD BE
STRONGEST...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. OVERALL...THE MODEL
TREND HAS BEEN WARMER IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A SIGNIFICANT PORTION
OF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED TO RISE A DEG OR TWO ABOVE ZERO DEG C LATE
EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL MELT THE SNOW AS IT
FALLS TO THE GROUND. BELOW 2 KFT OR SO...TEMPS ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY
IS SUPPORTING MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE
STORM WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LESS FROZEN ACCUMULATION ON THE GROUND
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL. ALSO...WITHOUT A COLD PARENT HIGH TO OUR
N...WET BULB TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HIGHER
WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN.
ALSO...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MANAGED TO REACH INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO
ALLEVIATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EARLY EVE HOURS.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW AND SLEET FROM N OF
DARLINGTON TO BENNETTSVILLE TO N OF LUMBERTON. IN THIS AREA...
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS NEAR OF JUST IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
SOME FROZEN ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORENCE TO
DILLON TO NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET HERE. AS
FAR AS FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION...THE RISK FOR THIS WILL BE HIGHEST
VERY LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING WHEN AIR TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING. BY THIS TIME...THERE WILL BE NO ICE IN THE CLOUDS
AND SOME DRY SLOTTING WILL LIKELY HAVE NOSED INTO THE AREA. THUS...
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. WILL FORECAST LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE FROM THE NW CORNER OF PENDER COUNTY THROUGH
EYF AND LBT TO BEAR BBP AND HARTSVILLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING A COLD RAIN. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS
EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO ONE AND TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH.

A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL FURTHER DEAMPLIFY AS IT
PUSHES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VLY...THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING
JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK THU. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD...INTO A
COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LOW TRACK...IT WILL BE JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. AS YOU MOVE PROGRESSIVELY N AND W OF THE LOW
TRACK...THE RISK OF WINTRY WEATHER INCREASES AS DO THE ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE RACES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE LEAVING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. I DID LEAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY PLOD TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS BY MID MORNING.
BEYOND THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
WITH LOW CEILINGS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
OPTED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS VS THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT SURE WHEN WE`LL SEE SUNSHINE AGAIN.

AFTER A RAIN-FREE BUT PROBABLY CLOUDY DAY SATURDAY THE LONG TERM
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. SATURDAY THOUGH BRINGS ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW BUT ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH DEEP
INVERSION OR PERHAPS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST WITH ITS CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH. SUNDAY THE HIGH
TAKES ON MORE OF A WEDGE-LIKE ELONGATION INTO THE CAROLINAS.
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AS WELL BUT NOW APPEARS MUCH WEAKER.
AS SUCH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY BUT SOME
LOW POPS STILL LIKELY WARRANTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. SUNDAY HIGHS HAD
TO BE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY SPONSOR A DREARY
DAY WITH TEMPS MIRED IN THE 40S (MEANWHILE THE NORMAL HIGH CONTINUES
TO CREEP UPWARDS...NOW 63 FOR ILM). SPEAKING OF HIGHS IN THE
60S...MONDAY MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE AS SUCH. THE WEDGE BREAKS
DOWN ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO A DECELERATING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MAY CLIMB
CLOSE TO SEASONABLE DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE TEMPERATURES
BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
ON TUESDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY INSTEAD OF THE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST (IN ONE RUN THE MEX FCST
WENT FROM 65 TO 52!). FOR WEDNESDAY THE SETUP IS RATHER SIMILAR TO
MONDAY WHEREIN THE WEDGE MAY BREAK DOWN FOR A NEAR IMMEDIATE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT, THE END RESULT BEING A RAINY BUT SEASONABLE DAY.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COMPLEX
WEATHER SYSTEM. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS...AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH WILL TAPER OFF INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER ABOUT THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ILLUSTRATING A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. OVERALL A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HORUS...WITH VARIABLE WINDS AOB 5 KTS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG...WHICH WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR/LIFR. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KTS
POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY...RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING
HOURS...THOUGH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...ALLOWING FOR
MVFR/IFR/AREAS OF LIFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE...BUT EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB
10 KTS TO CONTINUE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN UP THE CAROLINA
COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK
AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH
THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE
INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9 FT...10 FT SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS THE
VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER DURING THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. INITIALLY A NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 10-15
KNOTS LEANING HEAVILY TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE. WITH THE
SPRAWLING HIGH MOVING SLOWLY...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE
SAME MANNER AND WINDS WILL REMAIN HERE UNTIL BASICALLY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE BUT BRIEF LULL EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE EARLY STAGES OF A COASTAL
TROUGH FORM. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WITH 5-8 FEET CONTINUING. BY
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE MODERATE RANGE OF 2-4 FEET
DEVELOPS. THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE IN THE DAY
LOOKS OK.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY SLIDING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A BROAD SWATH OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. CONDITIONS MAY GET
CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA CUTOFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LESS SHELTERED NC
WATERS. SUNDAY THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST BUT LEAVES BEHIND A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME AN OFFSHORE
TROUGHINESS SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER THE FLOW. PRETTY COMPLEX SETUP
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN LEAVING BEHIND HIGH
DUE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPSTATE
REGION OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE DECELERATING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEERS CONSIDERABLY OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN WATERS
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY. A NE FLOW RETURNS AREA-WIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 252006
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
306 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. MIXED
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS AS
WELL. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY SOME CLEARING SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...FROM PENDER AND BLADEN...ACROSS
ROBESON AND DILLON AND THEN WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO INCLUDE
MARLBORO AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A
MIXED BAG OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO INCLUDE...SLEET...SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
MID EVE THROUGH ABOUT 3/4 AM...ALTHOUGH WINTRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO THU MORNING IN THESE AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AS RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS HEAVIER...IT WILL HELP TO COOL THE
COLUMN. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SLEET...ESPECIALLY MID AND LATE EVE WHEN DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD BE
STRONGEST...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. OVERALL...THE MODEL
TREND HAS BEEN WARMER IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A SIGNIFICANT PORTION
OF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED TO RISE A DEG OR TWO ABOVE ZERO DEG C LATE
EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL MELT THE SNOW AS IT
FALLS TO THE GROUND. BELOW 2 KFT OR SO...TEMPS ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY
IS SUPPORTING MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE
STORM WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LESS FROZEN ACCUMULATION ON THE GROUND
ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL. ALSO...WITHOUT A COLD PARENT HIGH TO OUR
N...WET BULB TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HIGHER
WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN.
ALSO...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MANAGED TO REACH INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO
ALLEVIATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EARLY EVE HOURS.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW AND SLEET FROM N OF
DARLINGTON TO BENNETTSVILLE TO N OF LUMBERTON. IN THIS AREA...
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS NEAR OF JUST IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
SOME FROZEN ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORENCE TO
DILLON TO NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET HERE. AS
FAR AS FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION...THE RISK FOR THIS WILL BE HIGHEST
VERY LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING WHEN AIR TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING. BY THIS TIME...THERE WILL BE NO ICE IN THE CLOUDS
AND SOME DRY SLOTTING WILL LIKELY HAVE NOSED INTO THE AREA. THUS...
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. WILL FORECAST LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE FROM THE NW CORNER OF PENDER COUNTY THROUGH
EYF AND LBT TO BEAR BBP AND HARTSVILLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING A COLD RAIN. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS
EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO ONE AND TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH.

A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL FURTHER DEAMPLIFY AS IT
PUSHES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VLY...THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING
JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK THU. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD...INTO A
COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LOW TRACK...IT WILL BE JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. AS YOU MOVE PROGRESSIVELY N AND W OF THE LOW
TRACK...THE RISK OF WINTRY WEATHER INCREASES AS DO THE ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE RACES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE LEAVING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. I DID LEAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY PLOD TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS BY MID MORNING.
BEYOND THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
WITH LOW CEILINGS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
OPTED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY MODERATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS VS THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT SURE WHEN WE`LL SEE SUNSHINE AGAIN.

AFTER A RAIN-FREE BUT PROBABLY CLOUDY DAY SATURDAY THE LONG TERM
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. SATURDAY THOUGH BRINGS ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW BUT ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH DEEP
INVERSION OR PERHAPS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSES EAST WITH ITS CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH. SUNDAY THE HIGH
TAKES ON MORE OF A WEDGE-LIKE ELONGATION INTO THE CAROLINAS.
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AS WELL BUT NOW APPEARS MUCH WEAKER.
AS SUCH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY BUT SOME
LOW POPS STILL LIKELY WARRANTED FOR COASTAL AREAS. SUNDAY HIGHS HAD
TO BE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY SPONSOR A DREARY
DAY WITH TEMPS MIRED IN THE 40S (MEANWHILE THE NORMAL HIGH CONTINUES
TO CREEP UPWARDS...NOW 63 FOR ILM). SPEAKING OF HIGHS IN THE
60S...MONDAY MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE AS SUCH. THE WEDGE BREAKS
DOWN ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO A DECELERATING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MAY CLIMB
CLOSE TO SEASONABLE DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE TEMPERATURES
BUST POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
ON TUESDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY INSTEAD OF THE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST (IN ONE RUN THE MEX FCST
WENT FROM 65 TO 52!). FOR WEDNESDAY THE SETUP IS RATHER SIMILAR TO
MONDAY WHEREIN THE WEDGE MAY BREAK DOWN FOR A NEAR IMMEDIATE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT, THE END RESULT BEING A RAINY BUT SEASONABLE DAY.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COMPLEX
WEATHER SYSTEM. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS...AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH WILL TAPER OFF INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER ABOUT THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ILLUSTRATING A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. OVERALL A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HORUS...WITH VARIABLE WINDS AOB 5 KTS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG...WHICH WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR/LIFR. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KTS
POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY...RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING
HOURS...THOUGH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...ALLOWING FOR
MVFR/IFR/AREAS OF LIFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE...BUT EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB
10 KTS TO CONTINUE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVE AND THEN UP THE CAROLINA
COAST...INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK
AND ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
TIGHT TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE DIRECTION WILL BE NE THROUGH
THE EVE...BACKING TO THE N OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE
INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING UP TO 6 TO 9 FT...10 FT SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS THE
VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER DURING THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. INITIALLY A NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 10-15
KNOTS LEANING HEAVILY TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE. WITH THE
SPRAWLING HIGH MOVING SLOWLY...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE
SAME MANNER AND WINDS WILL REMAIN HERE UNTIL BASICALLY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE BUT BRIEF LULL EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE EARLY STAGES OF A COASTAL
TROUGH FORM. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WITH 5-8 FEET CONTINUING. BY
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A MORE MODERATE RANGE OF 2-4 FEET
DEVELOPS. THE EXPIRATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE IN THE DAY
LOOKS OK.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY SLIDING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A BROAD SWATH OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. CONDITIONS MAY GET
CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA CUTOFF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LESS SHELTERED NC
WATERS. SUNDAY THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST BUT LEAVES BEHIND A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME AN OFFSHORE
TROUGHINESS SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER THE FLOW. PRETTY COMPLEX SETUP
HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN LEAVING BEHIND HIGH
DUE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPSTATE
REGION OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE DECELERATING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEERS CONSIDERABLY OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN WATERS
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY. A NE FLOW RETURNS AREA-WIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 251730
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1230 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY...AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY ON
THURSDAY...LEAVING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY BUT
COLD CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SOME ICE AS WELL. ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN LATE TODAY OR THIS EVE AND THEN
AT LEAST MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR A TIME ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA LATE TONIGHT. LIQUID RAIN IS THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY AREA...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BE A CHILLY RAIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 40S. TONIGHT...AS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...THE
COLUMN WILL COOL.

IT IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST. ALTHOUGH WE KNOW THERE WILL BE ICE IN
THE CLOUDS...IF THE WARM NOSE EXCEEDS 0 DEG C FOR A SIGNIFICANT
DEPTH...SNOW WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. AT THIS
TIME...THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER WHICH WOULD KEEP ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO A MINIMUM AND THEN ONLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NW ZONES.
THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA THU MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...HELPING TO BRING THE FREEZING LINE SOUTHWARD AND
INTO PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY...AND THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA.

CENTER OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF
NC TO START THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL RAPIDLY PULL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL ON
WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 700MB WILL REMAIN INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OF COURSE WILL NOT PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP...BUT
VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDINESS...WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE QUESTION IS HOW
QUICKLY CAN SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING DURING
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD CREATE A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO. GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPS REMAINING JUST ABOVE FREEZING
NEAR THE COAST...BUT DROPPING TO BELOW INLAND. FORTUNATELY...THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RESIDUAL PRECIP IS NEAR THE COAST...AND EVEN IN
THOSE PLACES THAT DO ENCOUNTER SOME -ZL WILL DO SO ONTO GROUND THAT
HAS EXPERIENCED RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL TOP DOWN METHODOLOGY
PRODUCED A SHORT PERIOD OF -ZR/-ZL ACROSS THE COUNTIES ALREADY
WITHIN THE WSW - SO EXTENDED THE WSW UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR SOME
VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH MAY ACCRETE UP TO 0.01 OR 0.02
INCHES...MOSTLY ACROSS ROBESON/BLADEN COUNTIES.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT DRY ADVECTION COMMENCES AND SKY
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUD
COVER WILL REMAIN AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST.
STILL...FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...A NICE BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER
RECENTLY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE
CALENDAR APPROACHES MARCH. HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
ONLY IN THE LOW 40S...A FULL 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER OF THE TWO. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL
ALSO BE VERY COLD...DROPPING WELL INTO THE 20S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT IN
THE DRIER COLUMN FRIDAY NIGHT MINS WILL LIKELY BE 2-3 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A
WARMUP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK BUT ACCOMPANIED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND AS CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING SE RIDGE DRIVES RISING SURFACE PRESSURE. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BOTH LIKELY BE DRY DAYS...BUT NE FLOW WITHIN THE WEDGE
WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT LIKELY IN A
VARYING STATE. THIS SUGGESTS THE SUN WILL BE PRESENT AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL...SHOCKINGLY...REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

WEDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE
LEADING TO A DRAMATIC WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THIS WARMTH WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNREALIZED AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA WILL DRIVE
VORTICITY IMPULSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...OVERTOP A STALLED COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL HOVER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. OVERALL...THERE APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED FORCING LOCALLY FOR PRECIP...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH AT LEAST PERIODS OF SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COMPLEX
WEATHER SYSTEM. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS...AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH WILL TAPER OFF INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER ABOUT THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ILLUSTRATING A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. OVERALL A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HORUS...WITH VARIABLE WINDS AOB 5 KTS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG...WHICH WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR/LIFR. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KTS
POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY...RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING
HOURS...THOUGH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...ALLOWING FOR
MVFR/IFR/AREAS OF LIFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE...BUT EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB
10 KTS TO CONTINUE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...FAST-MOVING SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NE
GULF COAST TO OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT...AND TO THE WATERS OFF
CAPE HATTERAS THU MORNING. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT FOLLOWS THIS
STORM TRACK...PRODUCING INCREASING N TO NE WINDS. AS A RESULT...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MID-EVENING THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THU MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE COAST DURING THURSDAY...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
PINCHED THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
REACH OVER 20 KTS FIRST THING THURSDAY...BUT WILL EASE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AFTN TO BECOME 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING
FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST ON
FRIDAY...CAUSING RENEWED TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLOWLY...BECOMING 20-25 KTS ONCE AGAIN BUT FROM MORE OF A
NE DIRECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE 5-8
FT...BUT WILL FALL QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ONGOING SCA
SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE LATE THURSDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6
FT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6 FT
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A RENEWED SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY 20-25 KT NE WINDS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS DRIVES WAVE HEIGHTS TO 4-6 FT...AND AN
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY
NIGHT...GRADIENT SLOWLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN.
THIS CAUSES WINDS TO EASE TO 10-15 KTS BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
REMAINING FROM THE NE. WINDS WILL EASE FURTHER AND THEN VEER TO THE
SOUTH AS THE WEDGE DISSIPATES LATE SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS FALL ON THE
DECREASING WINDS...FROM 4-6 FT LATE SATURDAY...TO 2-4 FT SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 251730
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1230 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY...AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY ON
THURSDAY...LEAVING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY BUT
COLD CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SOME ICE AS WELL. ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN LATE TODAY OR THIS EVE AND THEN
AT LEAST MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR A TIME ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA LATE TONIGHT. LIQUID RAIN IS THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY AREA...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BE A CHILLY RAIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 40S. TONIGHT...AS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...THE
COLUMN WILL COOL.

IT IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST. ALTHOUGH WE KNOW THERE WILL BE ICE IN
THE CLOUDS...IF THE WARM NOSE EXCEEDS 0 DEG C FOR A SIGNIFICANT
DEPTH...SNOW WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. AT THIS
TIME...THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER WHICH WOULD KEEP ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO A MINIMUM AND THEN ONLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NW ZONES.
THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA THU MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...HELPING TO BRING THE FREEZING LINE SOUTHWARD AND
INTO PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY...AND THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA.

CENTER OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF
NC TO START THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL RAPIDLY PULL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL ON
WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 700MB WILL REMAIN INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OF COURSE WILL NOT PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP...BUT
VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDINESS...WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE QUESTION IS HOW
QUICKLY CAN SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING DURING
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD CREATE A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO. GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPS REMAINING JUST ABOVE FREEZING
NEAR THE COAST...BUT DROPPING TO BELOW INLAND. FORTUNATELY...THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RESIDUAL PRECIP IS NEAR THE COAST...AND EVEN IN
THOSE PLACES THAT DO ENCOUNTER SOME -ZL WILL DO SO ONTO GROUND THAT
HAS EXPERIENCED RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL TOP DOWN METHODOLOGY
PRODUCED A SHORT PERIOD OF -ZR/-ZL ACROSS THE COUNTIES ALREADY
WITHIN THE WSW - SO EXTENDED THE WSW UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR SOME
VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH MAY ACCRETE UP TO 0.01 OR 0.02
INCHES...MOSTLY ACROSS ROBESON/BLADEN COUNTIES.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT DRY ADVECTION COMMENCES AND SKY
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUD
COVER WILL REMAIN AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST.
STILL...FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...A NICE BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER
RECENTLY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE
CALENDAR APPROACHES MARCH. HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
ONLY IN THE LOW 40S...A FULL 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER OF THE TWO. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL
ALSO BE VERY COLD...DROPPING WELL INTO THE 20S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT IN
THE DRIER COLUMN FRIDAY NIGHT MINS WILL LIKELY BE 2-3 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A
WARMUP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK BUT ACCOMPANIED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND AS CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING SE RIDGE DRIVES RISING SURFACE PRESSURE. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BOTH LIKELY BE DRY DAYS...BUT NE FLOW WITHIN THE WEDGE
WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT LIKELY IN A
VARYING STATE. THIS SUGGESTS THE SUN WILL BE PRESENT AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL...SHOCKINGLY...REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

WEDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE
LEADING TO A DRAMATIC WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THIS WARMTH WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNREALIZED AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA WILL DRIVE
VORTICITY IMPULSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...OVERTOP A STALLED COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL HOVER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. OVERALL...THERE APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED FORCING LOCALLY FOR PRECIP...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH AT LEAST PERIODS OF SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COMPLEX
WEATHER SYSTEM. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS...AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH WILL TAPER OFF INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER ABOUT THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ILLUSTRATING A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. OVERALL A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HORUS...WITH VARIABLE WINDS AOB 5 KTS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG...WHICH WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR/LIFR. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KTS
POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY...RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING
HOURS...THOUGH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...ALLOWING FOR
MVFR/IFR/AREAS OF LIFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE...BUT EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB
10 KTS TO CONTINUE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...FAST-MOVING SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NE
GULF COAST TO OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT...AND TO THE WATERS OFF
CAPE HATTERAS THU MORNING. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT FOLLOWS THIS
STORM TRACK...PRODUCING INCREASING N TO NE WINDS. AS A RESULT...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MID-EVENING THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THU MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE COAST DURING THURSDAY...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
PINCHED THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
REACH OVER 20 KTS FIRST THING THURSDAY...BUT WILL EASE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AFTN TO BECOME 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING
FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST ON
FRIDAY...CAUSING RENEWED TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLOWLY...BECOMING 20-25 KTS ONCE AGAIN BUT FROM MORE OF A
NE DIRECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE 5-8
FT...BUT WILL FALL QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ONGOING SCA
SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE LATE THURSDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6
FT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6 FT
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A RENEWED SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY 20-25 KT NE WINDS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS DRIVES WAVE HEIGHTS TO 4-6 FT...AND AN
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY
NIGHT...GRADIENT SLOWLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN.
THIS CAUSES WINDS TO EASE TO 10-15 KTS BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
REMAINING FROM THE NE. WINDS WILL EASE FURTHER AND THEN VEER TO THE
SOUTH AS THE WEDGE DISSIPATES LATE SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS FALL ON THE
DECREASING WINDS...FROM 4-6 FT LATE SATURDAY...TO 2-4 FT SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 251534
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1034 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY...AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY ON
THURSDAY...LEAVING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY BUT
COLD CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SOME ICE AS WELL. ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN LATE TODAY OR THIS EVE AND THEN
AT LEAST MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR A TIME ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA LATE TONIGHT. LIQUID RAIN IS THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY AREA...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BE A CHILLY RAIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 40S. TONIGHT...AS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...THE
COLUMN WILL COOL.

IT IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST. ALTHOUGH WE KNOW THERE WILL BE ICE IN
THE CLOUDS...IF THE WARM NOSE EXCEEDS 0 DEG C FOR A SIGNIFICANT
DEPTH...SNOW WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. AT THIS
TIME...THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER WHICH WOULD KEEP ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO A MINIMUM AND THEN ONLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NW ZONES.
THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA THU MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...HELPING TO BRING THE FREEZING LINE SOUTHWARD AND
INTO PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY...AND THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA.

CENTER OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF
NC TO START THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL RAPIDLY PULL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL ON
WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 700MB WILL REMAIN INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OF COURSE WILL NOT PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP...BUT
VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDINESS...WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE QUESTION IS HOW
QUICKLY CAN SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING DURING
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD CREATE A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO. GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPS REMAINING JUST ABOVE FREEZING
NEAR THE COAST...BUT DROPPING TO BELOW INLAND. FORTUNATELY...THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RESIDUAL PRECIP IS NEAR THE COAST...AND EVEN IN
THOSE PLACES THAT DO ENCOUNTER SOME -ZL WILL DO SO ONTO GROUND THAT
HAS EXPERIENCED RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL TOP DOWN METHODOLOGY
PRODUCED A SHORT PERIOD OF -ZR/-ZL ACROSS THE COUNTIES ALREADY
WITHIN THE WSW - SO EXTENDED THE WSW UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR SOME
VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH MAY ACCRETE UP TO 0.01 OR 0.02
INCHES...MOSTLY ACROSS ROBESON/BLADEN COUNTIES.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT DRY ADVECTION COMMENCES AND SKY
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUD
COVER WILL REMAIN AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST.
STILL...FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...A NICE BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER
RECENTLY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE
CALENDAR APPROACHES MARCH. HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
ONLY IN THE LOW 40S...A FULL 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER OF THE TWO. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL
ALSO BE VERY COLD...DROPPING WELL INTO THE 20S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT IN
THE DRIER COLUMN FRIDAY NIGHT MINS WILL LIKELY BE 2-3 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A
WARMUP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK BUT ACCOMPANIED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND AS CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING SE RIDGE DRIVES RISING SURFACE PRESSURE. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BOTH LIKELY BE DRY DAYS...BUT NE FLOW WITHIN THE WEDGE
WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT LIKELY IN A
VARYING STATE. THIS SUGGESTS THE SUN WILL BE PRESENT AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL...SHOCKINGLY...REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

WEDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE
LEADING TO A DRAMATIC WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THIS WARMTH WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNREALIZED AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA WILL DRIVE
VORTICITY IMPULSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...OVERTOP A STALLED COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL HOVER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. OVERALL...THERE APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED FORCING LOCALLY FOR PRECIP...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH AT LEAST PERIODS OF SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT IFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/IFR LATER THIS
MORNING...DETERIORATING AGAIN TO IFR LATER TONIGHT DUE TO LOW CIGS
AND RAINFALL...ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICT LOW CIGS AND
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR
IFR TO PREVAIL. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/IFR AS A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10
KTS. THIS EVENING...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A
RETREAT BACK TO MVFR/IFR WITH LOW CIGS AND LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO
RAINFALL AND AREAS OF FOG. COLD TEMPERATURES AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS COULD ALLOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN LOWERED
CONFIDENCE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INTRODUCE
ATTM. FOR THE COASTAL SITES...EXPECT ALL RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHEAST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...FAST-MOVING SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NE
GULF COAST TO OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT...AND TO THE WATERS OFF
CAPE HATTERAS THU MORNING. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT FOLLOWS THIS
STORM TRACK...PRODUCING INCREASING N TO NE WINDS. AS A RESULT...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MID-EVENING THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THU MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE COAST DURING THURSDAY...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
PINCHED THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
REACH OVER 20 KTS FIRST THING THURSDAY...BUT WILL EASE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AFTN TO BECOME 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING
FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST ON
FRIDAY...CAUSING RENEWED TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLOWLY...BECOMING 20-25 KTS ONCE AGAIN BUT FROM MORE OF A
NE DIRECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE 5-8
FT...BUT WILL FALL QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ONGOING SCA
SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE LATE THURSDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6
FT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6 FT
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A RENEWED SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY 20-25 KT NE WINDS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS DRIVES WAVE HEIGHTS TO 4-6 FT...AND AN
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY
NIGHT...GRADIENT SLOWLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN.
THIS CAUSES WINDS TO EASE TO 10-15 KTS BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
REMAINING FROM THE NE. WINDS WILL EASE FURTHER AND THEN VEER TO THE
SOUTH AS THE WEDGE DISSIPATES LATE SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS FALL ON THE
DECREASING WINDS...FROM 4-6 FT LATE SATURDAY...TO 2-4 FT SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 251534
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1034 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY...AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY ON
THURSDAY...LEAVING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY BUT
COLD CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SOME ICE AS WELL. ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN LATE TODAY OR THIS EVE AND THEN
AT LEAST MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR A TIME ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA LATE TONIGHT. LIQUID RAIN IS THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY AREA...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BE A CHILLY RAIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 40S. TONIGHT...AS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...THE
COLUMN WILL COOL.

IT IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST. ALTHOUGH WE KNOW THERE WILL BE ICE IN
THE CLOUDS...IF THE WARM NOSE EXCEEDS 0 DEG C FOR A SIGNIFICANT
DEPTH...SNOW WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. AT THIS
TIME...THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER WHICH WOULD KEEP ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO A MINIMUM AND THEN ONLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NW ZONES.
THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA THU MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...HELPING TO BRING THE FREEZING LINE SOUTHWARD AND
INTO PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY...AND THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA.

CENTER OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF
NC TO START THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL RAPIDLY PULL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL ON
WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 700MB WILL REMAIN INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OF COURSE WILL NOT PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP...BUT
VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDINESS...WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE QUESTION IS HOW
QUICKLY CAN SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING DURING
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD CREATE A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO. GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPS REMAINING JUST ABOVE FREEZING
NEAR THE COAST...BUT DROPPING TO BELOW INLAND. FORTUNATELY...THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RESIDUAL PRECIP IS NEAR THE COAST...AND EVEN IN
THOSE PLACES THAT DO ENCOUNTER SOME -ZL WILL DO SO ONTO GROUND THAT
HAS EXPERIENCED RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL TOP DOWN METHODOLOGY
PRODUCED A SHORT PERIOD OF -ZR/-ZL ACROSS THE COUNTIES ALREADY
WITHIN THE WSW - SO EXTENDED THE WSW UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR SOME
VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH MAY ACCRETE UP TO 0.01 OR 0.02
INCHES...MOSTLY ACROSS ROBESON/BLADEN COUNTIES.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT DRY ADVECTION COMMENCES AND SKY
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUD
COVER WILL REMAIN AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST.
STILL...FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...A NICE BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER
RECENTLY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE
CALENDAR APPROACHES MARCH. HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
ONLY IN THE LOW 40S...A FULL 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER OF THE TWO. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL
ALSO BE VERY COLD...DROPPING WELL INTO THE 20S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT IN
THE DRIER COLUMN FRIDAY NIGHT MINS WILL LIKELY BE 2-3 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A
WARMUP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK BUT ACCOMPANIED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND AS CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING SE RIDGE DRIVES RISING SURFACE PRESSURE. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BOTH LIKELY BE DRY DAYS...BUT NE FLOW WITHIN THE WEDGE
WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT LIKELY IN A
VARYING STATE. THIS SUGGESTS THE SUN WILL BE PRESENT AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL...SHOCKINGLY...REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

WEDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE
LEADING TO A DRAMATIC WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THIS WARMTH WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNREALIZED AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA WILL DRIVE
VORTICITY IMPULSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...OVERTOP A STALLED COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL HOVER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. OVERALL...THERE APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED FORCING LOCALLY FOR PRECIP...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH AT LEAST PERIODS OF SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT IFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/IFR LATER THIS
MORNING...DETERIORATING AGAIN TO IFR LATER TONIGHT DUE TO LOW CIGS
AND RAINFALL...ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICT LOW CIGS AND
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR
IFR TO PREVAIL. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/IFR AS A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10
KTS. THIS EVENING...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A
RETREAT BACK TO MVFR/IFR WITH LOW CIGS AND LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO
RAINFALL AND AREAS OF FOG. COLD TEMPERATURES AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS COULD ALLOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN LOWERED
CONFIDENCE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INTRODUCE
ATTM. FOR THE COASTAL SITES...EXPECT ALL RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHEAST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...FAST-MOVING SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NE
GULF COAST TO OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT...AND TO THE WATERS OFF
CAPE HATTERAS THU MORNING. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT FOLLOWS THIS
STORM TRACK...PRODUCING INCREASING N TO NE WINDS. AS A RESULT...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MID-EVENING THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THU MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE COAST DURING THURSDAY...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
PINCHED THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
REACH OVER 20 KTS FIRST THING THURSDAY...BUT WILL EASE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AFTN TO BECOME 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING
FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST ON
FRIDAY...CAUSING RENEWED TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLOWLY...BECOMING 20-25 KTS ONCE AGAIN BUT FROM MORE OF A
NE DIRECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE 5-8
FT...BUT WILL FALL QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ONGOING SCA
SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE LATE THURSDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6
FT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6 FT
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A RENEWED SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY 20-25 KT NE WINDS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS DRIVES WAVE HEIGHTS TO 4-6 FT...AND AN
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY
NIGHT...GRADIENT SLOWLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN.
THIS CAUSES WINDS TO EASE TO 10-15 KTS BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
REMAINING FROM THE NE. WINDS WILL EASE FURTHER AND THEN VEER TO THE
SOUTH AS THE WEDGE DISSIPATES LATE SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS FALL ON THE
DECREASING WINDS...FROM 4-6 FT LATE SATURDAY...TO 2-4 FT SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-105.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL








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