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000
FXUS62 KILM 301529
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1029 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLING
TREND WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF
COAST MID WEEK WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS
THE FA...SETTLING ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR
AT ALL LEVELS AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS
ACROSS THE FA. THE NW DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL FURTHER SCOUR OR WRING OUT ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM MIDDAY
TODAY THRU TONIGHT. EXCELLENT CAA AFTER FROPA WHICH CONTINUES
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. 8H TEMPS DROP FROM +5 TO +9 DEGREES CELSIUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...TO -3 TO -8 DEGREES CELSIUS AT THE PEAK OF
THE CAA. OVERALL...THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDER
ONE WHEN COMPARED TO GFS MOS, HOWEVER...GIVEN TEMP VERIFICATION
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE GFS MOS IS OUTPERFORMING THE NAM MOS.
THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WITH ROUGHLY TODAYS MAX BETWEEN 50
AND 55...AND TONIGHTS LOWS IN THE 20S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NW FLOW WILL LIGHTEN UP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS WINDS WILL BACK AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
DAY WITH A ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING. AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY
BUT MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS STREAMING IN BY END OF DAY ASSOCIATED TO
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW... HEIGHT RISES AND SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND AFTER
A COOL START TO CLOSE TO 50. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF INCH SAT MORNING WILL REBOUND UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH
BY SAT NIGHT. SAT EVE SHOULD SEE A QUICK TEMP DROP OFF AS HIGH
CLOUDS WILL NOT BE TOO THICK YET TO PREVENT DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN NEAR FREEZING MOST PLACES.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF SHORE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A DEEP INCREASING SW
TO W RETURN FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL TAP INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE
BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. INITIALLY WILL JUST SEE THICKENING MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES
THROUGH THE COLUMN IN LLJ UP TO 45 TO 50 KTS SUN NIGHT EXPECT PCP
CHANCES TO INCREASE. WAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL KICK TEMPS UP TO
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL...55 TO AROUND 60. TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH
SUN NIGHT WITH WAA AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOCAL AREA IN WARM SECTOR IN DECENT SW
RETURN FLOW MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AFTER A WARM START TEMPS WILL INCREASE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES MOST
PLACES BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND COLD
FRONT. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW FRONT MAKING IT OFF THE COAST AROUND
NOON TIME ON MONDAY. PCP WILL TAPER OFF LATEST AT THE COAST WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MID TO UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY MON EVENING. MAY SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF QPF IN SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL COME EARLY IN THE DAY MOST PLACES BEFORE CLEARING AND
CAA THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE LESS TIME TO WARM BEFORE COLD FRONT BLOWS
THROUGH AND THEREFORE TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE THE
WARMEST WITH COOLER NW FLOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES EVE. EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ON TUES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST
TUES NIGHT MAY SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE SOME PCP BY WED
MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE AND FARTHER EAST THROUGH
WED...IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND BACK OVER THE CAROLINAS IN A MORE
TYPICAL WEDGE LIKE FASHION. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE UP FROM THE GULF COAST RIDING UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
INITIALLY THE WARM AIR OVERRUNNING THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IN PLACE
MAY PRODUCE A NARROW WINDOW OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN INLAND VERY EARLY
WED MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE PCP WILL NOT SPREAD FAR
ENOUGH NORTH INTO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT TO NOT CAUSE ANY MIXED PCP
CONCERNS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
50S MOST PLACES ON WED AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP
TEMPS UP IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 WED NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK UP
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS APPROACHING THE HATTERAS COAST BY THURS
MORNING. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A DEEP MID TO UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH PLENTY OF COLD AND DRY
AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE THURS INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 16Z...FRONT PUSHING TO THE COAST AS WE SPEAK. LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. POST FRONTAL...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING. EXPECT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD
STAY ABOVE 6-7 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE
SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND
INTENSIFYING LOW CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM THE NE STATES...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. IN
ADDITION...CAA SURGE WILL BE ONGOING. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A STRONG
SCA THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KT FOR THE
ILM NC WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FT TODAY
AND 2 TO 5 FT TONIGHT. WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY...A
LIMITED FETCH WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN CHECK. SHORT PERIOD
WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SIG. SEAS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS
REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT EVE. THIS WILL ALLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. W TO NW FLOW WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT AROUND OT THE SE TO S BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH LATE SAT SEAS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 3
FT . EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT REACHING
INTO SCA THRESHOLDS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
MON MORNING WILL PRODUCING SW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL KEEP SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT MON MORNING.
SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE W-NW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME CAA...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION MAKING THE TYPICAL
PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST...REMAINING
10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/8
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ/8
AVIATION...DL/8








000
FXUS62 KILM 301529
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1029 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLING
TREND WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF
COAST MID WEEK WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS
THE FA...SETTLING ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR
AT ALL LEVELS AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS
ACROSS THE FA. THE NW DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL FURTHER SCOUR OR WRING OUT ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM MIDDAY
TODAY THRU TONIGHT. EXCELLENT CAA AFTER FROPA WHICH CONTINUES
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. 8H TEMPS DROP FROM +5 TO +9 DEGREES CELSIUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...TO -3 TO -8 DEGREES CELSIUS AT THE PEAK OF
THE CAA. OVERALL...THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDER
ONE WHEN COMPARED TO GFS MOS, HOWEVER...GIVEN TEMP VERIFICATION
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE GFS MOS IS OUTPERFORMING THE NAM MOS.
THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WITH ROUGHLY TODAYS MAX BETWEEN 50
AND 55...AND TONIGHTS LOWS IN THE 20S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NW FLOW WILL LIGHTEN UP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS WINDS WILL BACK AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
DAY WITH A ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING. AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY
BUT MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS STREAMING IN BY END OF DAY ASSOCIATED TO
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW... HEIGHT RISES AND SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND AFTER
A COOL START TO CLOSE TO 50. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF INCH SAT MORNING WILL REBOUND UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH
BY SAT NIGHT. SAT EVE SHOULD SEE A QUICK TEMP DROP OFF AS HIGH
CLOUDS WILL NOT BE TOO THICK YET TO PREVENT DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN NEAR FREEZING MOST PLACES.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF SHORE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A DEEP INCREASING SW
TO W RETURN FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL TAP INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE
BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. INITIALLY WILL JUST SEE THICKENING MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES
THROUGH THE COLUMN IN LLJ UP TO 45 TO 50 KTS SUN NIGHT EXPECT PCP
CHANCES TO INCREASE. WAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL KICK TEMPS UP TO
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL...55 TO AROUND 60. TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH
SUN NIGHT WITH WAA AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOCAL AREA IN WARM SECTOR IN DECENT SW
RETURN FLOW MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AFTER A WARM START TEMPS WILL INCREASE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES MOST
PLACES BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND COLD
FRONT. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW FRONT MAKING IT OFF THE COAST AROUND
NOON TIME ON MONDAY. PCP WILL TAPER OFF LATEST AT THE COAST WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MID TO UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY MON EVENING. MAY SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF QPF IN SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL COME EARLY IN THE DAY MOST PLACES BEFORE CLEARING AND
CAA THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE LESS TIME TO WARM BEFORE COLD FRONT BLOWS
THROUGH AND THEREFORE TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE THE
WARMEST WITH COOLER NW FLOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES EVE. EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ON TUES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST
TUES NIGHT MAY SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE SOME PCP BY WED
MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE AND FARTHER EAST THROUGH
WED...IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND BACK OVER THE CAROLINAS IN A MORE
TYPICAL WEDGE LIKE FASHION. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE UP FROM THE GULF COAST RIDING UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
INITIALLY THE WARM AIR OVERRUNNING THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IN PLACE
MAY PRODUCE A NARROW WINDOW OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN INLAND VERY EARLY
WED MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE PCP WILL NOT SPREAD FAR
ENOUGH NORTH INTO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT TO NOT CAUSE ANY MIXED PCP
CONCERNS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
50S MOST PLACES ON WED AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP
TEMPS UP IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 WED NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK UP
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS APPROACHING THE HATTERAS COAST BY THURS
MORNING. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A DEEP MID TO UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH PLENTY OF COLD AND DRY
AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE THURS INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 16Z...FRONT PUSHING TO THE COAST AS WE SPEAK. LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. POST FRONTAL...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING. EXPECT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD
STAY ABOVE 6-7 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE
SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND
INTENSIFYING LOW CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM THE NE STATES...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. IN
ADDITION...CAA SURGE WILL BE ONGOING. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A STRONG
SCA THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KT FOR THE
ILM NC WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FT TODAY
AND 2 TO 5 FT TONIGHT. WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY...A
LIMITED FETCH WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN CHECK. SHORT PERIOD
WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SIG. SEAS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS
REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT EVE. THIS WILL ALLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. W TO NW FLOW WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT AROUND OT THE SE TO S BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH LATE SAT SEAS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 3
FT . EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT REACHING
INTO SCA THRESHOLDS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
MON MORNING WILL PRODUCING SW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL KEEP SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT MON MORNING.
SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE W-NW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME CAA...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION MAKING THE TYPICAL
PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST...REMAINING
10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/8
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ/8
AVIATION...DL/8









000
FXUS62 KILM 301114
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. DRY AND
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE GULF
COAST MID WEEK MAY SPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. SFC HIGH HAS SLID SE-S OF THE AREA TO START THIS
MORNING. AN AMPLIFYING AND NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF TO
AFFECT THE AREA TODAY...WITH ITS NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS SLIDING OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT THAT THE UPPER TROF WILL
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF. BY THE TIME THIS
OCCURS...THE WX AND SFC LOW WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE ILM CWA.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET...THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW
AND THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A TIGHTENED SFC PG
ACROSS THE FA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING WELL INTO TONIGHT. THE
CFP IS SLATED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 4 TO 6 AM THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE FA...
SETTLING ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR AT ALL
LEVELS AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE
FA. THE NW DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS WILL FURTHER
SCOUR OR WRING OUT ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM MIDDAY TODAY THRU
TONIGHT. IT NOW BECOMES BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS CFP. AS FOR TEMPS...EXCELLENT CAA AFTER FROPA WHICH
CONTINUES WELL INTO THE NIGHT. 8H TEMPS DROP FROM +5 TO +9 DEGREES
CELSIUS EARLY THIS MORNING...TO -3 TO -8 DEGREES CELSIUS AT THE PEAK
OF THE CAA. OVERALL...THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE
COLDER ONE WHEN COMPARED TO GFS MOS, HOWEVER...GIVEN TEMP
VERIFICATION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE GFS MOS IS OUTPERFORMING
THE NAM MOS. THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WITH ROUGHLY TODAYS MAX
BETWEEN 50 AND 55...AND TONIGHTS LOWS IN THE 20S THRUOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NW FLOW WILL LIGHTEN UP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS WINDS WILL BACK AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
DAY WITH A ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING. AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY
BUT MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS STREAMING IN BY END OF DAY ASSOCIATED TO
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW... HEIGHT RISES AND SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND AFTER
A COOL START TO CLOSE TO 50. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF INCH SAT MORNING WILL REBOUND UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH
BY SAT NIGHT. SAT EVE SHOULD SEE A QUICK TEMP DROP OFF AS HIGH
CLOUDS WILL NOT BE TOO THICK YET TO PREVENT DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN NEAR FREEZING MOST PLACES.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF SHORE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A DEEP INCREASING SW
TO W RETURN FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL TAP INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE
BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. INITIALLY WILL JUST SEE THICKENING MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES
THROUGH THE COLUMN IN LLJ UP TO 45 TO 50 KTS SUN NIGHT EXPECT PCP
CHANCES TO INCREASE. WAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL KICK TEMPS UP TO
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL...55 TO AROUND 60. TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH
SUN NIGHT WITH WAA AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOCAL AREA IN WARM SECTOR IN DECENT SW
RETURN FLOW MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AFTER A WARM START TEMPS WILL INCREASE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES MOST
PLACES BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND COLD
FRONT. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW FRONT MAKING IT OFF THE COAST AROUND
NOON TIME ON MONDAY. PCP WILL TAPER OFF LATEST AT THE COAST WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MID TO UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY MON EVENING. MAY SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF QPF IN SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL COME EARLY IN THE DAY MOST PLACES BEFORE CLEARING AND
CAA THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE LESS TIME TO WARM BEFORE COLD FRONT BLOWS
THROUGH AND THEREFORE TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE THE
WARMEST WITH COOLER NW FLOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES EVE. EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ON TUES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST
TUES NIGHT MAY SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE SOME PCP BY WED
MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE AND FARTHER EAST THROUGH
WED...IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND BACK OVER THE CAROLINAS IN A MORE
TYPICAL WEDGE LIKE FASHION. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE UP FROM THE GULF COAST RIDING UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
INITIALLY THE WARM AIR OVERRUNNING THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IN PLACE
MAY PRODUCE A NARROW WINDOW OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN INLAND VERY EARLY
WED MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE PCP WILL NOT SPREAD FAR
ENOUGH NORTH INTO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT TO NOT CAUSE ANY MIXED PCP
CONCERNS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
50S MOST PLACES ON WED AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP
TEMPS UP IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 WED NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK UP
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS APPROACHING THE HATTERAS COAST BY THURS
MORNING. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A DEEP MID TO UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH PLENTY OF COLD AND DRY
AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE THURS INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FRONT PUSHING TO THE COAST AS WE SPEAK. LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. POST FRONTAL...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING. EXPECT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT. WINDS
WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD STAY ABOVE
6-7 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE
SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...CFP EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING FROM THE SW-W EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FROM W TO NW LATER
THIS MORNING. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND INTENSIFYING LOW
CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM THE NE STATES...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A
TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...CAA SURGE
WILL BE ONGOING. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A STRONG SCA THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FT TODAY AND 2 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT. WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY...A LIMITED FETCH WILL
KEEP SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN CHECK. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
DOMINATE THE SIG. SEAS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS
REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT EVE. THIS WILL ALLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. W TO NW FLOW WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT AROUND OT THE SE TO S BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH LATE SAT SEAS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 3
FT . EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT REACHING
INTO SCA THRESHOLDS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
MON MORNING WILL PRODUCING SW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL KEEP SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT MON MORNING.
SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE W-NW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME CAA...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION MAKING THE TYPICAL
PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST...REMAINING
10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43









000
FXUS62 KILM 301114
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. DRY AND
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE GULF
COAST MID WEEK MAY SPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. SFC HIGH HAS SLID SE-S OF THE AREA TO START THIS
MORNING. AN AMPLIFYING AND NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF TO
AFFECT THE AREA TODAY...WITH ITS NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS SLIDING OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT THAT THE UPPER TROF WILL
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF. BY THE TIME THIS
OCCURS...THE WX AND SFC LOW WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE ILM CWA.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET...THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW
AND THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A TIGHTENED SFC PG
ACROSS THE FA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING WELL INTO TONIGHT. THE
CFP IS SLATED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 4 TO 6 AM THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE FA...
SETTLING ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR AT ALL
LEVELS AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE
FA. THE NW DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS WILL FURTHER
SCOUR OR WRING OUT ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM MIDDAY TODAY THRU
TONIGHT. IT NOW BECOMES BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS CFP. AS FOR TEMPS...EXCELLENT CAA AFTER FROPA WHICH
CONTINUES WELL INTO THE NIGHT. 8H TEMPS DROP FROM +5 TO +9 DEGREES
CELSIUS EARLY THIS MORNING...TO -3 TO -8 DEGREES CELSIUS AT THE PEAK
OF THE CAA. OVERALL...THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE
COLDER ONE WHEN COMPARED TO GFS MOS, HOWEVER...GIVEN TEMP
VERIFICATION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE GFS MOS IS OUTPERFORMING
THE NAM MOS. THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WITH ROUGHLY TODAYS MAX
BETWEEN 50 AND 55...AND TONIGHTS LOWS IN THE 20S THRUOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NW FLOW WILL LIGHTEN UP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS WINDS WILL BACK AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
DAY WITH A ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING. AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY
BUT MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS STREAMING IN BY END OF DAY ASSOCIATED TO
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW... HEIGHT RISES AND SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND AFTER
A COOL START TO CLOSE TO 50. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF INCH SAT MORNING WILL REBOUND UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH
BY SAT NIGHT. SAT EVE SHOULD SEE A QUICK TEMP DROP OFF AS HIGH
CLOUDS WILL NOT BE TOO THICK YET TO PREVENT DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN NEAR FREEZING MOST PLACES.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF SHORE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A DEEP INCREASING SW
TO W RETURN FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL TAP INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE
BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. INITIALLY WILL JUST SEE THICKENING MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES
THROUGH THE COLUMN IN LLJ UP TO 45 TO 50 KTS SUN NIGHT EXPECT PCP
CHANCES TO INCREASE. WAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL KICK TEMPS UP TO
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL...55 TO AROUND 60. TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH
SUN NIGHT WITH WAA AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOCAL AREA IN WARM SECTOR IN DECENT SW
RETURN FLOW MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AFTER A WARM START TEMPS WILL INCREASE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES MOST
PLACES BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND COLD
FRONT. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW FRONT MAKING IT OFF THE COAST AROUND
NOON TIME ON MONDAY. PCP WILL TAPER OFF LATEST AT THE COAST WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MID TO UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY MON EVENING. MAY SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF QPF IN SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL COME EARLY IN THE DAY MOST PLACES BEFORE CLEARING AND
CAA THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE LESS TIME TO WARM BEFORE COLD FRONT BLOWS
THROUGH AND THEREFORE TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE THE
WARMEST WITH COOLER NW FLOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES EVE. EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ON TUES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST
TUES NIGHT MAY SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE SOME PCP BY WED
MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE AND FARTHER EAST THROUGH
WED...IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND BACK OVER THE CAROLINAS IN A MORE
TYPICAL WEDGE LIKE FASHION. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE UP FROM THE GULF COAST RIDING UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
INITIALLY THE WARM AIR OVERRUNNING THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IN PLACE
MAY PRODUCE A NARROW WINDOW OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN INLAND VERY EARLY
WED MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE PCP WILL NOT SPREAD FAR
ENOUGH NORTH INTO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT TO NOT CAUSE ANY MIXED PCP
CONCERNS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
50S MOST PLACES ON WED AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP
TEMPS UP IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 WED NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK UP
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS APPROACHING THE HATTERAS COAST BY THURS
MORNING. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A DEEP MID TO UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH PLENTY OF COLD AND DRY
AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE THURS INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FRONT PUSHING TO THE COAST AS WE SPEAK. LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. POST FRONTAL...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING. EXPECT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT. WINDS
WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD STAY ABOVE
6-7 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE
SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...CFP EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING FROM THE SW-W EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FROM W TO NW LATER
THIS MORNING. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND INTENSIFYING LOW
CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM THE NE STATES...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A
TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...CAA SURGE
WILL BE ONGOING. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A STRONG SCA THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FT TODAY AND 2 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT. WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY...A LIMITED FETCH WILL
KEEP SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN CHECK. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
DOMINATE THE SIG. SEAS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS
REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT EVE. THIS WILL ALLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. W TO NW FLOW WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT AROUND OT THE SE TO S BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH LATE SAT SEAS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 3
FT . EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT REACHING
INTO SCA THRESHOLDS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
MON MORNING WILL PRODUCING SW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL KEEP SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT MON MORNING.
SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE W-NW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME CAA...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION MAKING THE TYPICAL
PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST...REMAINING
10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 300939
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
439 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. DRY AND
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE GULF
COAST MID WEEK MAY SPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. SFC HIGH HAS SLID SE-S OF THE AREA TO START THIS
MORNING. AN AMPLIFYING AND NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF TO
AFFECT THE AREA TODAY...WITH ITS NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS SLIDING OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT THAT THE UPPER TROF WILL
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF. BY THE TIME THIS
OCCURS...THE WX AND SFC LOW WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE ILM CWA.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET...THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW
AND THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A TIGHTENED SFC PG
ACROSS THE FA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING WELL INTO TONIGHT. THE
CFP IS SLATED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 4 TO 6 AM THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE FA...
SETTLING ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR AT ALL
LEVELS AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE
FA. THE NW DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS WILL FURTHER
SCOUR OR WRING OUT ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM MIDDAY TODAY THRU
TONIGHT. IT NOW BECOMES BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS CFP. AS FOR TEMPS...EXCELLENT CAA AFTER FROPA WHICH
CONTINUES WELL INTO THE NIGHT. 8H TEMPS DROP FROM +5 TO +9 DEGREES
CELSIUS EARLY THIS MORNING...TO -3 TO -8 DEGREES CELSIUS AT THE PEAK
OF THE CAA. OVERALL...THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE
COLDER ONE WHEN COMPARED TO GFS MOS, HOWEVER...GIVEN TEMP
VERIFICATION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE GFS MOS IS OUTPERFORMING
THE NAM MOS. THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WITH ROUGHLY TODAYS MAX
BETWEEN 50 AND 55...AND TONIGHTS LOWS IN THE 20S THRUOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NW FLOW WILL LIGHTEN UP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS WINDS WILL BACK AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
DAY WITH A ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING. AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY
BUT MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS STREAMING IN BY END OF DAY ASSOCIATED TO
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW... HEIGHT RISES AND SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND AFTER
A COOL START TO CLOSE TO 50. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF INCH SAT MORNING WILL REBOUND UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH
BY SAT NIGHT. SAT EVE SHOULD SEE A QUICK TEMP DROP OFF AS HIGH
CLOUDS WILL NOT BE TOO THICK YET TO PREVENT DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN NEAR FREEZING MOST PLACES.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF SHORE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A DEEP INCREASING SW
TO W RETURN FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL TAP INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE
BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. INITIALLY WILL JUST SEE THICKENING MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES
THROUGH THE COLUMN IN LLJ UP TO 45 TO 50 KTS SUN NIGHT EXPECT PCP
CHANCES TO INCREASE. WAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL KICK TEMPS UP TO
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL...55 TO AROUND 60. TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH
SUN NIGHT WITH WAA AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOCAL AREA IN WARM SECTOR IN DECENT SW
RETURN FLOW MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AFTER A WARM START TEMPS WILL INCREASE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES MOST
PLACES BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND COLD
FRONT. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW FRONT MAKING IT OFF THE COAST AROUND
NOON TIME ON MONDAY. PCP WILL TAPER OFF LATEST AT THE COAST WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MID TO UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY MON EVENING. MAY SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF QPF IN SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL COME EARLY IN THE DAY MOST PLACES BEFORE CLEARING AND
CAA THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE LESS TIME TO WARM BEFORE COLD FRONT BLOWS
THROUGH AND THEREFORE TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE THE
WARMEST WITH COOLER NW FLOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES EVE. EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ON TUES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST
TUES NIGHT MAY SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE SOME PCP BY WED
MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE AND FARTHER EAST THROUGH
WED...IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND BACK OVER THE CAROLINAS IN A MORE
TYPICAL WEDGE LIKE FASHION. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE UP FROM THE GULF COAST RIDING UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
INITIALLY THE WARM AIR OVERRUNNING THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IN PLACE
MAY PRODUCE A NARROW WINDOW OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN INLAND VERY EARLY
WED MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE PCP WILL NOT SPREAD FAR
ENOUGH NORTH INTO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT TO NOT CAUSE ANY MIXED PCP
CONCERNS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
50S MOST PLACES ON WED AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP
TEMPS UP IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 WED NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK UP
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS APPROACHING THE HATTERAS COAST BY THURS
MORNING. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A DEEP MID TO UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH PLENTY OF COLD AND DRY
AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE THURS INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN -SHRA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE FRONT NEARS OUR AREA. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST...SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO -SHRA AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR FROM 09-13Z.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. SW
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE FRONT
WILL RACE OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z...AND CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW USHERS IN MUCH DRIER AIR. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE DAY...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE
SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...CFP EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING FROM THE SW-W EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FROM W TO NW LATER
THIS MORNING. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND INTENSIFYING LOW
CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM THE NE STATES...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A
TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...CAA SURGE
WILL BE ONGOING. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A STRONG SCA THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FT TODAY AND 2 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT. WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY...A LIMITED FETCH WILL
KEEP SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN CHECK. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
DOMINATE THE SIG. SEAS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS
REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT EVE. THIS WILL ALLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. W TO NW FLOW WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT AROUND OT THE SE TO S BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH LATE SAT SEAS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 3
FT . EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT REACHING
INTO SCA THRESHOLDS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
MON MORNING WILL PRODUCING SW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL KEEP SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT MON MORNING.
SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE W-NW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME CAA...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION MAKING THE TYPICAL
PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST...REMAINING
10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ/BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 300932
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
432 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE GULF
COAST MID WEEK MAY SPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. SFC HIGH HAS SLID SE-S OF THE AREA TO START THIS
MORNING. AN AMPLIFYING AND NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF TO
AFFECT THE AREA TODAY...WITH ITS NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS SLIDING OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT THAT THE UPPER TROF WILL
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF. BY THE TIME THIS
OCCURS...THE WX AND SFC LOW WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE ILM CWA.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET...THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW
AND THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A TIGHTENED SFC PG
ACROSS THE FA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING WELL INTO TONIGHT. THE
CFP IS SLATED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 4 TO 6 AM THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE FA...
SETTLING ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR AT ALL
LEVELS AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE
FA. THE NW DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS WILL FURTHER
SCOUR OR WRING OUT ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM MIDDAY TODAY THRU
TONIGHT. IT NOW BECOMES BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS CFP. AS FOR TEMPS...EXCELLENT CAA AFTER FROPA WHICH
CONTINUES WELL INTO THE NIGHT. OVERALL...THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDER ONE WHEN COMPARED TO GFS MOS,
HOWEVER...GIVEN TEMP VERIFICATION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE GFS
MOS IS OUTPERFORMING THE NAM MOS. THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS...WITH ROUGHLY TODAYS HIGHS 50-55...AND TONIGHTS LOWS IN THE 20S
THRUOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NW FLOW WILL LIGHTEN UP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS WINDS WILL BACK AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
DAY WITH A ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING. AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY
BUT MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS STREAMING IN BY END OF DAY ASSOCIATED TO
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW...
HEIGHT RISES AND SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND AFTER A COOL
START TO CLOSE TO 50. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
INCH SAT MORNING WILL REBOUND UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH BY SAT
NIGHT. SAT EVE SHOULD SEE A QUICK TEMP DROP OFF AS HIGH CLOUDS
WILL NOT BE TOO THICK YET TO PREVENT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN NEAR FREEZING MOST PLACES.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF SHORE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A DEEP INCREASING SW
TO W RETURN FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL TAP INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE
BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. INITIALLY WILL JUST SEE THICKENING MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES
THROUGH THE COLUMN IN LLJ UP TO 45 TO 50 KTS SUN NIGHT EXPECT PCP
CHANCES TO INCREASE. WAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL KICK TEMPS UP TO
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL...55 TO AROUND 60. TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH
SUN NIGHT WITH WAA AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOCAL AREA IN WARM SECTOR IN DECENT SW
RETURN FLOW MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AFTER A WARM START TEMPS WILL INCREASE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES MOST
PLACES BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND COLD
FRONT. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW FRONT MAKING IT OFF THE COAST AROUND
NOON TIME ON MONDAY. PCP WILL TAPER OFF LATEST AT THE COAST WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MID TO UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY MON EVENING. MAY SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF QPF IN SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL COME EARLY IN THE DAY MOST PLACES BEFORE CLEARING AND
CAA THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE LESS TIME TO WARM BEFORE COLD FRONT BLOWS
THROUGH AND THEREFORE TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE THE
WARMEST WITH COOLER NW FLOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES EVE. EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ON TUES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST
TUES NIGHT MAY SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE SOME PCP BY WED
MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE AND FARTHER EAST THROUGH
WED...IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND BACK OVER THE CAROLINAS IN A MORE
TYPICAL WEDGE LIKE FASHION. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE UP FROM THE GULF COAST RIDING UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
INITIALLY THE WARM AIR OVERRUNNING THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IN PLACE
MAY PRODUCE A NARROW WINDOW OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN INLAND VERY EARLY
WED MORNING....BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE PCP WILL NOT SPREAD FAR
ENOUGH NORTH INTO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT TO NOT CAUSE ANY MIXED PCP
CONCERNS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
50S MOST PLACES ON WED AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP
TEMPS UP IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 WED NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK UP
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS APPROACHING THE HATTERAS COAST BY THURS
MORNING. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A DEEP MID TO UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH PLENTY OF COLD AND DRY
AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE THURS INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN -SHRA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE FRONT NEARS OUR AREA. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST...SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO -SHRA AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR FROM 09-13Z.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. SW
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE FRONT
WILL RACE OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z...AND CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW USHERS IN MUCH DRIER AIR. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE DAY...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE
SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CONTINUE OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. STILL
EXPECTING SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF
A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN REACHES THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT OF WIND
WILL SQUELCH WAVE GROWTH POTENTIAL BUT CERTAINLY APPEARS 25 KT
GUSTS ARE FAIR GAME BY 9Z IN WIND WEST SO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 3AM ALL WATERS LOOKS GOOD AND WAS RETAINED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO BE EXPECTED AFTER 3AM
ON THE WATERS...WHILE TSTMS REMAIN MORE CONFINED TO THE WEST WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM FARTHER OUT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS
REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT EVE. THIS WILL ALLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. W TO NW FLOW WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT AROUND OT THE SE TO S BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH LATE SAT SEAS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 3
FT . EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT REACHING
INTO SCA THRESHOLDS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
MON MORNING WILL PRODUCING SW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL KEEP SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT MON MORNING. SHOULD
SEE SCA CONDITIONS LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE W-NW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON A QUICK
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
WITH SOME CAA...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. FOR
TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION MAKING THE TYPICAL PROGRESSION
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST...REMAINING 10 KTS OR
LESS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ/BJR









000
FXUS62 KILM 300932
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
432 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE GULF
COAST MID WEEK MAY SPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. SFC HIGH HAS SLID SE-S OF THE AREA TO START THIS
MORNING. AN AMPLIFYING AND NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF TO
AFFECT THE AREA TODAY...WITH ITS NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS SLIDING OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT THAT THE UPPER TROF WILL
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF. BY THE TIME THIS
OCCURS...THE WX AND SFC LOW WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE ILM CWA.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET...THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW
AND THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A TIGHTENED SFC PG
ACROSS THE FA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING WELL INTO TONIGHT. THE
CFP IS SLATED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 4 TO 6 AM THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE FA...
SETTLING ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR AT ALL
LEVELS AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE
FA. THE NW DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS WILL FURTHER
SCOUR OR WRING OUT ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM MIDDAY TODAY THRU
TONIGHT. IT NOW BECOMES BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS CFP. AS FOR TEMPS...EXCELLENT CAA AFTER FROPA WHICH
CONTINUES WELL INTO THE NIGHT. OVERALL...THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDER ONE WHEN COMPARED TO GFS MOS,
HOWEVER...GIVEN TEMP VERIFICATION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE GFS
MOS IS OUTPERFORMING THE NAM MOS. THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS...WITH ROUGHLY TODAYS HIGHS 50-55...AND TONIGHTS LOWS IN THE 20S
THRUOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NW FLOW WILL LIGHTEN UP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS WINDS WILL BACK AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
DAY WITH A ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING. AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY
BUT MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS STREAMING IN BY END OF DAY ASSOCIATED TO
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW...
HEIGHT RISES AND SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND AFTER A COOL
START TO CLOSE TO 50. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
INCH SAT MORNING WILL REBOUND UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH BY SAT
NIGHT. SAT EVE SHOULD SEE A QUICK TEMP DROP OFF AS HIGH CLOUDS
WILL NOT BE TOO THICK YET TO PREVENT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN NEAR FREEZING MOST PLACES.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF SHORE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A DEEP INCREASING SW
TO W RETURN FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL TAP INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE
BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. INITIALLY WILL JUST SEE THICKENING MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES
THROUGH THE COLUMN IN LLJ UP TO 45 TO 50 KTS SUN NIGHT EXPECT PCP
CHANCES TO INCREASE. WAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL KICK TEMPS UP TO
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL...55 TO AROUND 60. TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH
SUN NIGHT WITH WAA AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOCAL AREA IN WARM SECTOR IN DECENT SW
RETURN FLOW MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AFTER A WARM START TEMPS WILL INCREASE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES MOST
PLACES BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND COLD
FRONT. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW FRONT MAKING IT OFF THE COAST AROUND
NOON TIME ON MONDAY. PCP WILL TAPER OFF LATEST AT THE COAST WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MID TO UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY MON EVENING. MAY SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF QPF IN SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL COME EARLY IN THE DAY MOST PLACES BEFORE CLEARING AND
CAA THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE LESS TIME TO WARM BEFORE COLD FRONT BLOWS
THROUGH AND THEREFORE TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE THE
WARMEST WITH COOLER NW FLOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES EVE. EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ON TUES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST
TUES NIGHT MAY SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE SOME PCP BY WED
MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE AND FARTHER EAST THROUGH
WED...IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND BACK OVER THE CAROLINAS IN A MORE
TYPICAL WEDGE LIKE FASHION. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE UP FROM THE GULF COAST RIDING UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
INITIALLY THE WARM AIR OVERRUNNING THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IN PLACE
MAY PRODUCE A NARROW WINDOW OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN INLAND VERY EARLY
WED MORNING....BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE PCP WILL NOT SPREAD FAR
ENOUGH NORTH INTO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT TO NOT CAUSE ANY MIXED PCP
CONCERNS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
50S MOST PLACES ON WED AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP
TEMPS UP IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 WED NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK UP
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS APPROACHING THE HATTERAS COAST BY THURS
MORNING. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A DEEP MID TO UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH PLENTY OF COLD AND DRY
AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE THURS INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN -SHRA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE FRONT NEARS OUR AREA. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST...SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO -SHRA AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR FROM 09-13Z.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. SW
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE FRONT
WILL RACE OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z...AND CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW USHERS IN MUCH DRIER AIR. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE DAY...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE
SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CONTINUE OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. STILL
EXPECTING SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF
A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN REACHES THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT OF WIND
WILL SQUELCH WAVE GROWTH POTENTIAL BUT CERTAINLY APPEARS 25 KT
GUSTS ARE FAIR GAME BY 9Z IN WIND WEST SO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 3AM ALL WATERS LOOKS GOOD AND WAS RETAINED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO BE EXPECTED AFTER 3AM
ON THE WATERS...WHILE TSTMS REMAIN MORE CONFINED TO THE WEST WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM FARTHER OUT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS
REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT EVE. THIS WILL ALLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. W TO NW FLOW WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT AROUND OT THE SE TO S BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH LATE SAT SEAS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 3
FT . EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT REACHING
INTO SCA THRESHOLDS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
MON MORNING WILL PRODUCING SW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL KEEP SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT MON MORNING. SHOULD
SEE SCA CONDITIONS LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE W-NW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON A QUICK
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
WITH SOME CAA...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. FOR
TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION MAKING THE TYPICAL PROGRESSION
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST...REMAINING 10 KTS OR
LESS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ/BJR










000
FXUS62 KILM 300606
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1259 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PASSING SHOWERS. DRY
AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS HAS
ACTUALLY EXPANDED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. FORECAST CONTINUES AS BEFORE...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

MOISTURE IN SHORT SUPPLY WITH COLD FRONT DRAWING NEAR WITHOUT AN
OPEN DOOR FROM THE GULF. UPPER SUPPORT OF MODERATE STRENGTH
HOWEVER BASED ON PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS
POWERING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HOLD NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES UP AND LOOK FOR
RISING TEMP CURVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS AT 00Z WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO THOSE AT 12Z FRIDAY SO A ROLLER COASTER OF A-TYPICAL
TEMPERATURE FUN. WINDS GO NW NEAR DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT HITS THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA WILL CREATE A SUNNY BUT
COLD FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER...AND THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL MOST
OF THE DAY FOR THOSE OUTSIDE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE JUST
WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED...AND LOWS WILL DIP
WELL INTO THE 20S BY DAWN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL BETTER THAN ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVECT
OVERHEAD ON INCREASING SW MID-LEVEL FLOW. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...AND A
BKN/OVC MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP MINS MUCH WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO
AROUND 32...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TO SHIFT
EMPHASIS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE PERSISTENT
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA. THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AND
IF ANYTHING A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN COVERED IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
STILL ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS WITH TOTAL QPF A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR SO.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ONCE AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MEANDERS SEEMINGLY FOREVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MAKES A QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM STILL DOESNT APPEAR TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
IF FURTHER CYCLES SHOW PHASING A MORE PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED. LONG STORY SHORT...WE NOW HAVE GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES
LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MOST
PART. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE MITIGATED BY MOISTURE AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL MORESO BECAUSE OF LINGERING MOISTURE. ANY RUN FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO MOISTURE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN -SHRA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE FRONT NEARS OUR AREA. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST...SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO -SHRA AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR FROM 09-13Z.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. SW
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE FRONT
WILL RACE OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z...AND CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW USHERS IN MUCH DRIER AIR. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE DAY...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE
SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN REACHES THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT OF WIND
WILL SQUELCH WAVE GROWTH POTENTIAL BUT CERTAINLY APPEARS 25 KT
GUSTS ARE FAIR GAME BY 9Z IN WIND WEST SO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 3AM ALL WATERS LOOKS GOOD AND WAS RETAINED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO BE EXPECTED AFTER 3AM
ON THE WATERS...WHILE TSTMS REMAIN MORE CONFINED TO THE WEST WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM FARTHER OUT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START THE PERIOD
WILL LEAVE STRONG NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL REACH 20-25 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THESE WINDS...EVEN AS
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE DAY. A W/NW DIRECTION WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT...BUT
WITH SPEEDS WEAKENING TO 10 KTS OR LESS LATE. SEAS WILL FALL AS
WELL...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION...SPEEDS REMAIN
IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
MAKING THE TYPICAL PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RISE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MONDAY DIMINISHING WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. MODEST SEAS FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR      AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK









000
FXUS62 KILM 300606
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1259 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PASSING SHOWERS. DRY
AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS HAS
ACTUALLY EXPANDED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. FORECAST CONTINUES AS BEFORE...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

MOISTURE IN SHORT SUPPLY WITH COLD FRONT DRAWING NEAR WITHOUT AN
OPEN DOOR FROM THE GULF. UPPER SUPPORT OF MODERATE STRENGTH
HOWEVER BASED ON PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS
POWERING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HOLD NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES UP AND LOOK FOR
RISING TEMP CURVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS AT 00Z WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO THOSE AT 12Z FRIDAY SO A ROLLER COASTER OF A-TYPICAL
TEMPERATURE FUN. WINDS GO NW NEAR DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT HITS THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA WILL CREATE A SUNNY BUT
COLD FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER...AND THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL MOST
OF THE DAY FOR THOSE OUTSIDE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE JUST
WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED...AND LOWS WILL DIP
WELL INTO THE 20S BY DAWN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL BETTER THAN ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVECT
OVERHEAD ON INCREASING SW MID-LEVEL FLOW. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...AND A
BKN/OVC MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP MINS MUCH WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO
AROUND 32...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TO SHIFT
EMPHASIS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE PERSISTENT
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA. THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AND
IF ANYTHING A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN COVERED IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
STILL ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS WITH TOTAL QPF A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR SO.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ONCE AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MEANDERS SEEMINGLY FOREVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MAKES A QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM STILL DOESNT APPEAR TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
IF FURTHER CYCLES SHOW PHASING A MORE PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED. LONG STORY SHORT...WE NOW HAVE GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES
LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MOST
PART. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE MITIGATED BY MOISTURE AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL MORESO BECAUSE OF LINGERING MOISTURE. ANY RUN FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO MOISTURE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN -SHRA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE FRONT NEARS OUR AREA. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST...SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO -SHRA AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR FROM 09-13Z.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. SW
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE FRONT
WILL RACE OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z...AND CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW USHERS IN MUCH DRIER AIR. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE DAY...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE
SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN REACHES THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT OF WIND
WILL SQUELCH WAVE GROWTH POTENTIAL BUT CERTAINLY APPEARS 25 KT
GUSTS ARE FAIR GAME BY 9Z IN WIND WEST SO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 3AM ALL WATERS LOOKS GOOD AND WAS RETAINED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO BE EXPECTED AFTER 3AM
ON THE WATERS...WHILE TSTMS REMAIN MORE CONFINED TO THE WEST WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM FARTHER OUT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START THE PERIOD
WILL LEAVE STRONG NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL REACH 20-25 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THESE WINDS...EVEN AS
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE DAY. A W/NW DIRECTION WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT...BUT
WITH SPEEDS WEAKENING TO 10 KTS OR LESS LATE. SEAS WILL FALL AS
WELL...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION...SPEEDS REMAIN
IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
MAKING THE TYPICAL PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RISE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MONDAY DIMINISHING WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. MODEST SEAS FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR      AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK








000
FXUS62 KILM 300230
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
930 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THIS COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CROSS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS HAS
ACTUALLY EXPANDED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...BUT PRECIP IS FALLING
FROM A CLOUD BASE OF AROUND 11 KFT AND WITH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER HAVE NOT SEEN ANY REPORTS OF ACCUMULATING RAIN YET. STILL
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACCUMULATION IN A
FEW SPOTS...BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT MORE THAN PRESENT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FORECAST CONTINUES AS BEFORE...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

MOISTURE IN SHORT SUPPLY WITH COLD FRONT DRAWING NEAR WITHOUT AN
OPEN DOOR FROM THE GULF. UPPER SUPPORT OF MODERATE STRENGTH
HOWEVER BASED ON PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS
POWERING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT.
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HOLD NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES UP AND
LOOK FOR RISING TEMP CURVES FROM 00Z-09Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
READINGS AT 00Z WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE AT 12Z FRIDAY SO A
ROLLER COASTER OF A-TYPICAL TEMPERATURE FUN. WINDS GO NW INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HITS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA WILL CREATE A SUNNY BUT
COLD FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER...AND THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL MOST
OF THE DAY FOR THOSE OUTSIDE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE JUST
WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED...AND LOWS WILL DIP
WELL INTO THE 20S BY DAWN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL BETTER THAN ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVECT
OVERHEAD ON INCREASING SW MID-LEVEL FLOW. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...AND A
BKN/OVC MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP MINS MUCH WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO
AROUND 32...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TO SHIFT
EMPHASIS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE PERSISTENT
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA. THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AND
IF ANYTHING A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN COVERED IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
STILL ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS WITH TOTAL QPF A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR SO.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ONCE AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MEANDERS SEEMINGLY FOREVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MAKES A QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM STILL DOESNT APPEAR TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
IF FURTHER CYCLES SHOW PHASING A MORE PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED. LONG STORY SHORT...WE NOW HAVE GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES
LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MOST
PART. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE MITIGATED BY MOISTURE AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL MORESO BECAUSE OF LINGERING MOISTURE. ANY RUN FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO MOISTURE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN BAND OF -RA MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...BUT OTHER THAN SOME MID-LEVEL CIGS...AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE LIMITED AS THE PCPN IS VERY LIGHT. THE HRRR SUGGESTS
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE COAST JUST AFTER
00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS/HRRR DO FAVOR INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO EARLY FRI. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06-08Z
AND TEMPO -SHRA FOR THE COASTAL SITES FROM 09-13Z. CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER
SHOWER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THE COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z... BRINGING RAPID CLEARING AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE
SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CONTINUE OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. STILL
EXPECTING SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF
A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN REACHES THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT OF WIND
WILL SQUELCH WAVE GROWTH POTENTIAL BUT CERTAINLY APPEARS 25 KT
GUSTS ARE FAIR GAME BY 9Z IN WIND WEST SO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 3AM ALL WATERS LOOKS GOOD AND WAS RETAINED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO BE EXPECTED AFTER 3AM
ON THE WATERS...WHILE TSTMS REMAIN MORE CONFINED TO THE WEST WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM FARTHER OUT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START THE PERIOD
WILL LEAVE STRONG NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL REACH 20-25 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THESE WINDS...EVEN AS
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE DAY. A W/NW DIRECTION WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT...BUT
WITH SPEEDS WEAKENING TO 10 KTS OR LESS LATE. SEAS WILL FALL AS
WELL...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION...SPEEDS REMAIN
IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
MAKING THE TYPICAL PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RISE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MONDAY DIMINISHING WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. MODEST SEAS FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 300230
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
930 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THIS COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CROSS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS HAS
ACTUALLY EXPANDED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...BUT PRECIP IS FALLING
FROM A CLOUD BASE OF AROUND 11 KFT AND WITH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER HAVE NOT SEEN ANY REPORTS OF ACCUMULATING RAIN YET. STILL
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACCUMULATION IN A
FEW SPOTS...BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT MORE THAN PRESENT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FORECAST CONTINUES AS BEFORE...PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

MOISTURE IN SHORT SUPPLY WITH COLD FRONT DRAWING NEAR WITHOUT AN
OPEN DOOR FROM THE GULF. UPPER SUPPORT OF MODERATE STRENGTH
HOWEVER BASED ON PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS
POWERING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT.
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HOLD NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES UP AND
LOOK FOR RISING TEMP CURVES FROM 00Z-09Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
READINGS AT 00Z WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE AT 12Z FRIDAY SO A
ROLLER COASTER OF A-TYPICAL TEMPERATURE FUN. WINDS GO NW INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HITS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA WILL CREATE A SUNNY BUT
COLD FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER...AND THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL MOST
OF THE DAY FOR THOSE OUTSIDE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE JUST
WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED...AND LOWS WILL DIP
WELL INTO THE 20S BY DAWN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL BETTER THAN ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVECT
OVERHEAD ON INCREASING SW MID-LEVEL FLOW. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...AND A
BKN/OVC MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP MINS MUCH WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO
AROUND 32...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TO SHIFT
EMPHASIS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE PERSISTENT
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA. THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AND
IF ANYTHING A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN COVERED IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
STILL ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS WITH TOTAL QPF A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR SO.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ONCE AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MEANDERS SEEMINGLY FOREVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MAKES A QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM STILL DOESNT APPEAR TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
IF FURTHER CYCLES SHOW PHASING A MORE PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED. LONG STORY SHORT...WE NOW HAVE GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES
LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MOST
PART. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE MITIGATED BY MOISTURE AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL MORESO BECAUSE OF LINGERING MOISTURE. ANY RUN FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO MOISTURE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN BAND OF -RA MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...BUT OTHER THAN SOME MID-LEVEL CIGS...AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE LIMITED AS THE PCPN IS VERY LIGHT. THE HRRR SUGGESTS
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE COAST JUST AFTER
00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS/HRRR DO FAVOR INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO EARLY FRI. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06-08Z
AND TEMPO -SHRA FOR THE COASTAL SITES FROM 09-13Z. CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER
SHOWER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THE COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z... BRINGING RAPID CLEARING AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE
SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CONTINUE OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. STILL
EXPECTING SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF
A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN REACHES THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT OF WIND
WILL SQUELCH WAVE GROWTH POTENTIAL BUT CERTAINLY APPEARS 25 KT
GUSTS ARE FAIR GAME BY 9Z IN WIND WEST SO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 3AM ALL WATERS LOOKS GOOD AND WAS RETAINED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO BE EXPECTED AFTER 3AM
ON THE WATERS...WHILE TSTMS REMAIN MORE CONFINED TO THE WEST WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM FARTHER OUT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START THE PERIOD
WILL LEAVE STRONG NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL REACH 20-25 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THESE WINDS...EVEN AS
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE DAY. A W/NW DIRECTION WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT...BUT
WITH SPEEDS WEAKENING TO 10 KTS OR LESS LATE. SEAS WILL FALL AS
WELL...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION...SPEEDS REMAIN
IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
MAKING THE TYPICAL PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RISE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MONDAY DIMINISHING WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. MODEST SEAS FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK






000
FXUS62 KILM 292332
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
632 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THIS COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CROSS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT IS LOOKING
MIGHTY WEAK AND SPOTTY WITH COVERAGE STEADILY DECREASING. WILL CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE WITH THE NEXT UPDATE AS IT SEEMS UNLIKELY AT
PRESENT RATE THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER A VERY
SIGNIFICANT AREA. REST OF FORECAST GOOD TO GO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

MOISTURE IN SHORT SUPPLY WITH COLD FRONT DRAWING NEAR WITHOUT AN
OPEN DOOR FROM THE GULF. UPPER SUPPORT OF MODERATE STRENGTH
HOWEVER BASED ON PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS
POWERING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT.
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HOLD NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES UP AND
LOOK FOR RISING TEMP CURVES FROM 00Z-09Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
READINGS AT 00Z WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE AT 12Z FRIDAY SO A
ROLLER COASTER OF A-TYPICAL TEMPERATURE FUN. WINDS GO NW INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HITS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA WILL CREATE A SUNNY BUT
COLD FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER...AND THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL MOST
OF THE DAY FOR THOSE OUTSIDE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE JUST
WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED...AND LOWS WILL DIP
WELL INTO THE 20S BY DAWN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL BETTER THAN ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVECT
OVERHEAD ON INCREASING SW MID-LEVEL FLOW. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...AND A
BKN/OVC MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP MINS MUCH WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO
AROUND 32...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TO SHIFT
EMPHASIS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE PERSISTENT
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA. THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AND
IF ANYTHING A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN COVERED IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
STILL ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS WITH TOTAL QPF A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR SO.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ONCE AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MEANDERS SEEMINGLY FOREVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MAKES A QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM STILL DOESNT APPEAR TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
IF FURTHER CYCLES SHOW PHASING A MORE PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED. LONG STORY SHORT...WE NOW HAVE GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES
LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MOST
PART. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE MITIGATED BY MOISTURE AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL MORESO BECAUSE OF LINGERING MOISTURE. ANY RUN FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO MOISTURE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN BAND OF -RA MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...BUT OTHER THAN SOME MID-LEVEL CIGS...AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE LIMITED AS THE PCPN IS VERY LIGHT. THE HRRR SUGGESTS
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE COAST JUST AFTER
00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS/HRRR DO FAVOR INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO EARLY FRI. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06-08Z
AND TEMPO -SHRA FOR THE COASTAL SITES FROM 09-13Z. CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER
SHOWER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THE COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z... BRINGING RAPID CLEARING AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE
SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. STILL EXPECTING SCA
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODERATELY
STRONG COLD FRONT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATED IN THE
NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN REACHES THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT OF WIND
WILL SQUELCH WAVE GROWTH POTENTIAL BUT CERTAINLY APPEARS 25 KT
GUSTS ARE FAIR GAME BY 9Z IN WIND WEST SO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 3AM ALL WATERS LOOKS GOOD AND WAS RETAINED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO BE EXPECTED AFTER 3AM
ON THE WATERS...WHILE TSTMS REMAIN MORE CONFINED TO THE WEST WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM FARTHER OUT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START THE PERIOD
WILL LEAVE STRONG NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL REACH 20-25 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THESE WINDS...EVEN AS
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE DAY. A W/NW DIRECTION WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT...BUT
WITH SPEEDS WEAKENING TO 10 KTS OR LESS LATE. SEAS WILL FALL AS
WELL...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION...SPEEDS REMAIN
IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
MAKING THE TYPICAL PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RISE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MONDAY DIMINISHING WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. MODEST SEAS FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 292332
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
632 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THIS COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CROSS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT IS LOOKING
MIGHTY WEAK AND SPOTTY WITH COVERAGE STEADILY DECREASING. WILL CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE WITH THE NEXT UPDATE AS IT SEEMS UNLIKELY AT
PRESENT RATE THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER A VERY
SIGNIFICANT AREA. REST OF FORECAST GOOD TO GO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

MOISTURE IN SHORT SUPPLY WITH COLD FRONT DRAWING NEAR WITHOUT AN
OPEN DOOR FROM THE GULF. UPPER SUPPORT OF MODERATE STRENGTH
HOWEVER BASED ON PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS
POWERING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT.
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HOLD NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES UP AND
LOOK FOR RISING TEMP CURVES FROM 00Z-09Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
READINGS AT 00Z WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE AT 12Z FRIDAY SO A
ROLLER COASTER OF A-TYPICAL TEMPERATURE FUN. WINDS GO NW INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HITS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA WILL CREATE A SUNNY BUT
COLD FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER...AND THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL MOST
OF THE DAY FOR THOSE OUTSIDE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE JUST
WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED...AND LOWS WILL DIP
WELL INTO THE 20S BY DAWN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL BETTER THAN ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVECT
OVERHEAD ON INCREASING SW MID-LEVEL FLOW. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...AND A
BKN/OVC MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP MINS MUCH WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO
AROUND 32...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TO SHIFT
EMPHASIS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE PERSISTENT
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA. THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AND
IF ANYTHING A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN COVERED IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
STILL ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS WITH TOTAL QPF A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR SO.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ONCE AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MEANDERS SEEMINGLY FOREVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MAKES A QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM STILL DOESNT APPEAR TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
IF FURTHER CYCLES SHOW PHASING A MORE PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED. LONG STORY SHORT...WE NOW HAVE GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES
LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MOST
PART. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE MITIGATED BY MOISTURE AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL MORESO BECAUSE OF LINGERING MOISTURE. ANY RUN FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO MOISTURE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN BAND OF -RA MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...BUT OTHER THAN SOME MID-LEVEL CIGS...AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE LIMITED AS THE PCPN IS VERY LIGHT. THE HRRR SUGGESTS
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE COAST JUST AFTER
00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS/HRRR DO FAVOR INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO EARLY FRI. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06-08Z
AND TEMPO -SHRA FOR THE COASTAL SITES FROM 09-13Z. CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER
SHOWER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THE COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z... BRINGING RAPID CLEARING AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE
SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. STILL EXPECTING SCA
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODERATELY
STRONG COLD FRONT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATED IN THE
NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN REACHES THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT OF WIND
WILL SQUELCH WAVE GROWTH POTENTIAL BUT CERTAINLY APPEARS 25 KT
GUSTS ARE FAIR GAME BY 9Z IN WIND WEST SO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 3AM ALL WATERS LOOKS GOOD AND WAS RETAINED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO BE EXPECTED AFTER 3AM
ON THE WATERS...WHILE TSTMS REMAIN MORE CONFINED TO THE WEST WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM FARTHER OUT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START THE PERIOD
WILL LEAVE STRONG NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL REACH 20-25 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THESE WINDS...EVEN AS
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE DAY. A W/NW DIRECTION WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT...BUT
WITH SPEEDS WEAKENING TO 10 KTS OR LESS LATE. SEAS WILL FALL AS
WELL...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION...SPEEDS REMAIN
IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
MAKING THE TYPICAL PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RISE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MONDAY DIMINISHING WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. MODEST SEAS FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK






000
FXUS62 KILM 292056
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THIS COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CROSS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...MOISTURE IN SHORT SUPPLY WITH COLD FRONT
DRAWING NEAR WITHOUT AN OPEN DOOR FROM THE GULF. UPPER SUPPORT OF
MODERATE STRENGTH HOWEVER BASED ON PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE IN VAPOR
ANIMATIONS POWERING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HOLD NIGHT-TIME
TEMPERATURES UP AND LOOK FOR RISING TEMP CURVES FROM 00Z-09Z AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. READINGS AT 00Z WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE AT
12Z FRIDAY SO A ROLLER COASTER OF A-TYPICAL TEMPERATURE FUN. WINDS
GO NW INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HITS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA WILL CREATE A SUNNY BUT COLD
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER...AND THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL MOST OF THE
DAY FOR THOSE OUTSIDE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE JUST WEST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED...AND LOWS WILL DIP
WELL INTO THE 20S BY DAWN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY AS
THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL BETTER THAN ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVECT
OVERHEAD ON INCREASING SW MID-LEVEL FLOW. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...AND A
BKN/OVC MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP MINS MUCH WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO
AROUND 32...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TO SHIFT
EMPHASIS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE PERSISTENT
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA. THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AND
IF ANYTHING A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN COVERED IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
STILL ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS WITH TOTAL QPF A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR SO.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ONCE AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MEANDERS SEEMINGLY FOREVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND MAKES A QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM
STILL DOESNT APPEAR TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. IF
FURTHER CYCLES SHOW PHASING A MORE PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
CAN BE EXPECTED. LONG STORY SHORT...WE NOW HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MOST PART.
MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE MITIGATED BY MOISTURE AND THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL MORESO
BECAUSE OF LINGERING MOISTURE. ANY RUN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
DIFFICULT DUE TO MOISTURE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN AND OUT THIS AFTERNOON  AS A
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
PRECIP...HOWEVER COASTAL TERMINALS WILL PROBABLY GET ENOUGH FRONTAL
LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGINNING AROUND 06-07Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY VFR IN THE LIGHT CONVECTION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR
LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN OVERNIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THEN REACHES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE OFF
SHORE COMPONENT OF WIND WILL SQUELCH WAVE GROWTH POTENTIAL BUT
CERTAINLY APPEARS 25 KT GUSTS ARE FAIR GAME BY 9Z IN WIND WEST
SO ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGINNING AT 3AM ALL WATERS LOOKS GOOD AND
WAS RETAINED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
TO BE EXPECTED AFTER 3AM ON THE WATERS...WHILE TSTMS REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM FARTHER OUT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START THE PERIOD WILL
LEAVE STRONG NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL
REACH 20-25 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THESE WINDS...EVEN AS WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE DUE TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...CAUSING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. A W/NW
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT...BUT WITH SPEEDS WEAKENING TO 10
KTS OR LESS LATE. SEAS WILL FALL AS WELL...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION...SPEEDS REMAIN
IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
MAKING THE TYPICAL PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RISE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MONDAY DIMINISHING WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. MODEST SEAS FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/JDW/SHK










000
FXUS62 KILM 292056
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THIS COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CROSS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...MOISTURE IN SHORT SUPPLY WITH COLD FRONT
DRAWING NEAR WITHOUT AN OPEN DOOR FROM THE GULF. UPPER SUPPORT OF
MODERATE STRENGTH HOWEVER BASED ON PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE IN VAPOR
ANIMATIONS POWERING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HOLD NIGHT-TIME
TEMPERATURES UP AND LOOK FOR RISING TEMP CURVES FROM 00Z-09Z AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. READINGS AT 00Z WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE AT
12Z FRIDAY SO A ROLLER COASTER OF A-TYPICAL TEMPERATURE FUN. WINDS
GO NW INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HITS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA WILL CREATE A SUNNY BUT COLD
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER...AND THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL MOST OF THE
DAY FOR THOSE OUTSIDE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE JUST WEST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED...AND LOWS WILL DIP
WELL INTO THE 20S BY DAWN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY AS
THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL BETTER THAN ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVECT
OVERHEAD ON INCREASING SW MID-LEVEL FLOW. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...AND A
BKN/OVC MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP MINS MUCH WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO
AROUND 32...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TO SHIFT
EMPHASIS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE PERSISTENT
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA. THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AND
IF ANYTHING A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN COVERED IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
STILL ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS WITH TOTAL QPF A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR SO.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ONCE AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MEANDERS SEEMINGLY FOREVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND MAKES A QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM
STILL DOESNT APPEAR TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. IF
FURTHER CYCLES SHOW PHASING A MORE PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
CAN BE EXPECTED. LONG STORY SHORT...WE NOW HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MOST PART.
MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE MITIGATED BY MOISTURE AND THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL MORESO
BECAUSE OF LINGERING MOISTURE. ANY RUN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
DIFFICULT DUE TO MOISTURE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN AND OUT THIS AFTERNOON  AS A
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
PRECIP...HOWEVER COASTAL TERMINALS WILL PROBABLY GET ENOUGH FRONTAL
LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGINNING AROUND 06-07Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY VFR IN THE LIGHT CONVECTION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR
LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN OVERNIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THEN REACHES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE OFF
SHORE COMPONENT OF WIND WILL SQUELCH WAVE GROWTH POTENTIAL BUT
CERTAINLY APPEARS 25 KT GUSTS ARE FAIR GAME BY 9Z IN WIND WEST
SO ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGINNING AT 3AM ALL WATERS LOOKS GOOD AND
WAS RETAINED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
TO BE EXPECTED AFTER 3AM ON THE WATERS...WHILE TSTMS REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM FARTHER OUT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START THE PERIOD WILL
LEAVE STRONG NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL
REACH 20-25 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THESE WINDS...EVEN AS WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE DUE TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...CAUSING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. A W/NW
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT...BUT WITH SPEEDS WEAKENING TO 10
KTS OR LESS LATE. SEAS WILL FALL AS WELL...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION...SPEEDS REMAIN
IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
MAKING THE TYPICAL PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RISE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MONDAY DIMINISHING WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. MODEST SEAS FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/JDW/SHK









000
FXUS62 KILM 291801
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
101 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT REVISIONS WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATES. SKY COVER INCREASING NOW...SO MAXIMUMS SHOULD
GO ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES AT BEST.

THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...AND
SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. SHORT WAVE NORTH TO SOUTH RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH
EASTWARD...ACROSS THE FA AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTN...BOTH HIGH AND MID LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE FA. MODELS INDICATE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECENT MID-
LEVEL S/W TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...WILL PUSH ENE TO THE
NE STATES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST...WILL PUSH ESE AT A GOOD CLIP
THRU TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING...AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI.
AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20 POPS AT BEST SINCE NO TAPPING
OF THE GULF OCCURS...AND ANY ATLANTIC MOISTURE THAT GETS DRAWN IN
WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS.
LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 30S
LATE TODAY AND/OR TONIGHT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
S/W TROFS OF VARYING STRENGTH...TO COMBINE AND PRODUCE A NEARLY
FULL NORTH TO SOUTH MID-LATITUDE TROF BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
THIS TROF WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTH TO THE NE GULF
COAST STATES. THIS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF WILL HELP QUICKLY PUSH
THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY DAYBREAK
FRI...TAKING THE ISOLATED PCPN WITH IT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MINS AS THE 1ST GUESS
GIVEN ITS DECENT PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL MOS GUIDANCE
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SHOULD SEE MOST LOCATIONS CLIMB TO AND
ABOVE 50 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL START OUT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. THE
STRONG CAA WILL ONLY BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES JUST MAKING IT
INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COOLER. CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NW INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS MOST PLACES AND MAY SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS. AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40S WITH A
FEW PLACES REACHING 50 UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE. IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS
LIGHTENING UP AT THE SURFACE. WILL SEE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING COME SAT NIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS IN STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL BE DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF
FRI INTO SATURDAY INCREASING A LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY IN. OVERALL A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN MORNING
WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GREATEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BEST MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT COME TOGETHER. STRONG LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PCP LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY UNTIL MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY
MON EVENING WITH A DEEPER DRIER AND COOLER NW FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING OVERHEAD TUES
AND THEN OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WED BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ANOTHER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE
GULF ON WED AND MAY SPREAD CLOUDS AND PCP FAR ENOUGH NORTH WED
NIGHT AS IT MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
POST COLD FRONT TUES THROUGH EARLY WED REBOUNDING TOWARD NORMAL BY
WED AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN AND OUT THIS AFTERNOON  AS A
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
PRECIP...HOWEVER COASTAL TERMINALS WILL PROBABLY GET ENOUGH FRONTAL
LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGINNING AROUND 06-07Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY VFR IN THE LIGHT CONVECTION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR
LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM THURSDAY...THE BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
PUSH ACROSS AND OFFSHORE FROM THE LOCAL WATERS BY MIDDAY. LOOKING
AT VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE-S 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING OF
THE SFC PG AHEAD OF IT...WILL RESULT IN SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
FOLLOWING PERIOD ILLUSTRATES NW WINDS 20-25 KT AFTER THE CFP EARLY
FRI. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SHORT TERM SCA FOR LATE IN THIS
PERIOD INTO THE 1ST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A
LIMITED FETCH FOR WHICH SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BUILD FROM. THE WATERS
EXTENDING FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MYRTLE BEACH WILL LIKELY OBSERVE
SLIGHTLY HIER SEAS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO
THE WSW-W WIND TRAJECTORY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE WITH UP TO 5 TO 6 IN OUR OUTER
WATERS. AN SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN STRONG
GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE N-NW THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EAST AND OVERHEAD BY AFTN. A WEAK
RETURN FLOW MAY SET UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MOVING INTO
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT MORNING
AND UNDER 3 FT BY SAT EVE UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY OFF SHORE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN FLOW MOST OF THE DAY INCREASING
OUT OF THE S-SW BY SUN NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE UP FROM THE GULF COAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THIS
TIME PUSHING SEAS UP FROM DOWN BELOW 3 FT EARLY SUNDAY UP TO 6 TO
8 FT BY EARLY MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BY MON NIGHT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NW TO N ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/8








000
FXUS62 KILM 291801
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
101 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT REVISIONS WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATES. SKY COVER INCREASING NOW...SO MAXIMUMS SHOULD
GO ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES AT BEST.

THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...AND
SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. SHORT WAVE NORTH TO SOUTH RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH
EASTWARD...ACROSS THE FA AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTN...BOTH HIGH AND MID LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE FA. MODELS INDICATE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECENT MID-
LEVEL S/W TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...WILL PUSH ENE TO THE
NE STATES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST...WILL PUSH ESE AT A GOOD CLIP
THRU TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING...AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI.
AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20 POPS AT BEST SINCE NO TAPPING
OF THE GULF OCCURS...AND ANY ATLANTIC MOISTURE THAT GETS DRAWN IN
WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS.
LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 30S
LATE TODAY AND/OR TONIGHT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
S/W TROFS OF VARYING STRENGTH...TO COMBINE AND PRODUCE A NEARLY
FULL NORTH TO SOUTH MID-LATITUDE TROF BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
THIS TROF WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTH TO THE NE GULF
COAST STATES. THIS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF WILL HELP QUICKLY PUSH
THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY DAYBREAK
FRI...TAKING THE ISOLATED PCPN WITH IT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MINS AS THE 1ST GUESS
GIVEN ITS DECENT PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL MOS GUIDANCE
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SHOULD SEE MOST LOCATIONS CLIMB TO AND
ABOVE 50 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL START OUT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. THE
STRONG CAA WILL ONLY BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES JUST MAKING IT
INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COOLER. CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NW INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS MOST PLACES AND MAY SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS. AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40S WITH A
FEW PLACES REACHING 50 UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE. IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS
LIGHTENING UP AT THE SURFACE. WILL SEE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING COME SAT NIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS IN STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL BE DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF
FRI INTO SATURDAY INCREASING A LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY IN. OVERALL A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN MORNING
WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GREATEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BEST MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT COME TOGETHER. STRONG LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PCP LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY UNTIL MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY
MON EVENING WITH A DEEPER DRIER AND COOLER NW FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING OVERHEAD TUES
AND THEN OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WED BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ANOTHER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE
GULF ON WED AND MAY SPREAD CLOUDS AND PCP FAR ENOUGH NORTH WED
NIGHT AS IT MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
POST COLD FRONT TUES THROUGH EARLY WED REBOUNDING TOWARD NORMAL BY
WED AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN AND OUT THIS AFTERNOON  AS A
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
PRECIP...HOWEVER COASTAL TERMINALS WILL PROBABLY GET ENOUGH FRONTAL
LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGINNING AROUND 06-07Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY VFR IN THE LIGHT CONVECTION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR
LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM THURSDAY...THE BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
PUSH ACROSS AND OFFSHORE FROM THE LOCAL WATERS BY MIDDAY. LOOKING
AT VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE-S 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING OF
THE SFC PG AHEAD OF IT...WILL RESULT IN SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
FOLLOWING PERIOD ILLUSTRATES NW WINDS 20-25 KT AFTER THE CFP EARLY
FRI. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SHORT TERM SCA FOR LATE IN THIS
PERIOD INTO THE 1ST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A
LIMITED FETCH FOR WHICH SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BUILD FROM. THE WATERS
EXTENDING FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MYRTLE BEACH WILL LIKELY OBSERVE
SLIGHTLY HIER SEAS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO
THE WSW-W WIND TRAJECTORY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE WITH UP TO 5 TO 6 IN OUR OUTER
WATERS. AN SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN STRONG
GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE N-NW THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EAST AND OVERHEAD BY AFTN. A WEAK
RETURN FLOW MAY SET UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MOVING INTO
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT MORNING
AND UNDER 3 FT BY SAT EVE UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY OFF SHORE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN FLOW MOST OF THE DAY INCREASING
OUT OF THE S-SW BY SUN NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE UP FROM THE GULF COAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THIS
TIME PUSHING SEAS UP FROM DOWN BELOW 3 FT EARLY SUNDAY UP TO 6 TO
8 FT BY EARLY MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BY MON NIGHT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NW TO N ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/8







000
FXUS62 KILM 291510
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1010 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED WITH THE MID
MORNING UPDATE. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED AND WILL YIELD PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS REST OF TODAY...VARIABLE IN COVERAGE. THIS MAY
SUPPRESS HOURLY TEMPERATURE CLIMBS AND WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
MAXIMUMS TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR A POTENTIAL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT
WITH THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY UPDATE.

THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...AND
SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. SHORT WAVE NORTH TO SOUTH RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH
EASTWARD...ACROSS THE FA AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTN...BOTH HIGH AND MID LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE FA. MODELS INDICATE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECENT MID-
LEVEL S/W TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...WILL PUSH ENE TO THE
NE STATES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST...WILL PUSH ESE AT A GOOD CLIP
THRU TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING...AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI.
AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20 POPS AT BEST SINCE NO TAPPING
OF THE GULF OCCURS...AND ANY ATLANTIC MOISTURE THAT GETS DRAWN IN
WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS.
LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 30S
LATE TODAY AND/OR TONIGHT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
S/W TROFS OF VARYING STRENGTH...TO COMBINE AND PRODUCE A NEARLY
FULL NORTH TO SOUTH MID-LATITUDE TROF BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
THIS TROF WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTH TO THE NE GULF
COAST STATES. THIS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF WILL HELP QUICKLY PUSH
THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY DAYBREAK
FRI...TAKING THE ISOLATED PCPN WITH IT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MINS AS THE 1ST GUESS
GIVEN ITS DECENT PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL MOS GUIDANCE
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SHOULD SEE MOST LOCATIONS CLIMB TO AND
ABOVE 50 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL START OUT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. THE
STRONG CAA WILL ONLY BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES JUST MAKING IT
INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COOLER. CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NW INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS MOST PLACES AND MAY SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS. AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40S WITH A
FEW PLACES REACHING 50 UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE. IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS
LIGHTENING UP AT THE SURFACE. WILL SEE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING COME SAT NIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS IN STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL BE DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF
FRI INTO SATURDAY INCREASING A LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY IN. OVERALL A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN MORNING
WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GREATEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BEST MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT COME TOGETHER. STRONG LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PCP LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY UNTIL MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY
MON EVENING WITH A DEEPER DRIER AND COOLER NW FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING OVERHEAD TUES
AND THEN OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WED BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ANOTHER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE
GULF ON WED AND MAY SPREAD CLOUDS AND PCP FAR ENOUGH NORTH WED
NIGHT AS IT MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
POST COLD FRONT TUES THROUGH EARLY WED REBOUNDING TOWARD NORMAL BY
WED AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN AND OUT TODAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE INLAND
TERMINALS WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PRECIP...HOWEVER
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL PROBABLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR
LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURSDAY...THE BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
PUSH ACROSS AND OFFSHORE FROM THE LOCAL WATERS BY MIDDAY. LOOKING
AT VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE-S 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING OF
THE SFC PG AHEAD OF IT...WILL RESULT IN SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
FOLLOWING PERIOD ILLUSTRATES NW WINDS 20-25 KT AFTER THE CFP EARLY
FRI. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SHORT TERM SCA FOR LATE IN THIS
PERIOD INTO THE 1ST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A
LIMITED FETCH FOR WHICH SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BUILD FROM. THE WATERS
EXTENDING FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MYRTLE BEACH WILL LIKELY OBSERVE
SLIGHTLY HIER SEAS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO
THE WSW-W WIND TRAJECTORY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE WITH UP TO 5 TO 6 IN OUR OUTER
WATERS. AN SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN STRONG
GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE N-NW THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EAST AND OVERHEAD BY AFTN. A WEAK
RETURN FLOW MAY SET UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MOVING INTO
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT MORNING
AND UNDER 3 FT BY SAT EVE UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY OFF SHORE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN FLOW MOST OF THE DAY INCREASING
OUT OF THE S-SW BY SUN NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE UP FROM THE GULF COAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THIS
TIME PUSHING SEAS UP FROM DOWN BELOW 3 FT EARLY SUNDAY UP TO 6 TO
8 FT BY EARLY MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BY MON NIGHT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NW TO N ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL







000
FXUS62 KILM 291510
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1010 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED WITH THE MID
MORNING UPDATE. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED AND WILL YIELD PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS REST OF TODAY...VARIABLE IN COVERAGE. THIS MAY
SUPPRESS HOURLY TEMPERATURE CLIMBS AND WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
MAXIMUMS TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR A POTENTIAL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT
WITH THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY UPDATE.

THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...AND
SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. SHORT WAVE NORTH TO SOUTH RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH
EASTWARD...ACROSS THE FA AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTN...BOTH HIGH AND MID LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE FA. MODELS INDICATE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECENT MID-
LEVEL S/W TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...WILL PUSH ENE TO THE
NE STATES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST...WILL PUSH ESE AT A GOOD CLIP
THRU TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING...AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI.
AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20 POPS AT BEST SINCE NO TAPPING
OF THE GULF OCCURS...AND ANY ATLANTIC MOISTURE THAT GETS DRAWN IN
WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS.
LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 30S
LATE TODAY AND/OR TONIGHT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
S/W TROFS OF VARYING STRENGTH...TO COMBINE AND PRODUCE A NEARLY
FULL NORTH TO SOUTH MID-LATITUDE TROF BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
THIS TROF WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTH TO THE NE GULF
COAST STATES. THIS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF WILL HELP QUICKLY PUSH
THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY DAYBREAK
FRI...TAKING THE ISOLATED PCPN WITH IT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MINS AS THE 1ST GUESS
GIVEN ITS DECENT PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL MOS GUIDANCE
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SHOULD SEE MOST LOCATIONS CLIMB TO AND
ABOVE 50 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL START OUT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. THE
STRONG CAA WILL ONLY BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES JUST MAKING IT
INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COOLER. CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NW INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS MOST PLACES AND MAY SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS. AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40S WITH A
FEW PLACES REACHING 50 UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE. IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS
LIGHTENING UP AT THE SURFACE. WILL SEE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING COME SAT NIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS IN STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL BE DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF
FRI INTO SATURDAY INCREASING A LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY IN. OVERALL A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN MORNING
WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GREATEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BEST MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT COME TOGETHER. STRONG LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PCP LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY UNTIL MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY
MON EVENING WITH A DEEPER DRIER AND COOLER NW FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING OVERHEAD TUES
AND THEN OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WED BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ANOTHER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE
GULF ON WED AND MAY SPREAD CLOUDS AND PCP FAR ENOUGH NORTH WED
NIGHT AS IT MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
POST COLD FRONT TUES THROUGH EARLY WED REBOUNDING TOWARD NORMAL BY
WED AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN AND OUT TODAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE INLAND
TERMINALS WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PRECIP...HOWEVER
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL PROBABLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR
LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURSDAY...THE BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
PUSH ACROSS AND OFFSHORE FROM THE LOCAL WATERS BY MIDDAY. LOOKING
AT VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE-S 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING OF
THE SFC PG AHEAD OF IT...WILL RESULT IN SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
FOLLOWING PERIOD ILLUSTRATES NW WINDS 20-25 KT AFTER THE CFP EARLY
FRI. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SHORT TERM SCA FOR LATE IN THIS
PERIOD INTO THE 1ST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A
LIMITED FETCH FOR WHICH SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BUILD FROM. THE WATERS
EXTENDING FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MYRTLE BEACH WILL LIKELY OBSERVE
SLIGHTLY HIER SEAS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO
THE WSW-W WIND TRAJECTORY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE WITH UP TO 5 TO 6 IN OUR OUTER
WATERS. AN SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN STRONG
GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE N-NW THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EAST AND OVERHEAD BY AFTN. A WEAK
RETURN FLOW MAY SET UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MOVING INTO
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT MORNING
AND UNDER 3 FT BY SAT EVE UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY OFF SHORE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN FLOW MOST OF THE DAY INCREASING
OUT OF THE S-SW BY SUN NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE UP FROM THE GULF COAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THIS
TIME PUSHING SEAS UP FROM DOWN BELOW 3 FT EARLY SUNDAY UP TO 6 TO
8 FT BY EARLY MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BY MON NIGHT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NW TO N ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 291112
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
611 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AHEAD OF IT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT ON WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THIS PERIOD...AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. SHORT WAVE NORTH TO SOUTH
RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH EASTWARD...ACROSS THE FA AND OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
OFF THE COAST THIS AFTN...BOTH HIGH AND MID LEVEL OPAQUE
CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA. MODELS INDICATE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECENT MID-LEVEL S/W TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...WILL PUSH ENE TO THE NE STATES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN TO THE GULF
COAST...WILL PUSH ESE AT A GOOD CLIP THRU TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY GO WITH
A 20 POPS AT BEST SINCE NO TAPPING OF THE GULF OCCURS...AND ANY
ATLANTIC MOISTURE THAT GETS DRAWN IN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS...WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 30S LATE TODAY AND/OR TONIGHT. IT
WILL TAKE SEVERAL UPSTREAM MID LEVEL S/W TROFS OF VARYING
STRENGTH...TO COMBINE AND PRODUCE A NEARLY FULL NORTH TO SOUTH
MID-LATITUDE TROF BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THIS TROF WILL EXTEND
FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTH TO THE NE GULF COAST STATES. THIS
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF WILL HELP QUICKLY PUSH THE SFC COLD FRONT
ACROSS AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY DAYBREAK FRI...TAKING THE
ISOLATED PCPN WITH IT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MINS AS THE 1ST GUESS GIVEN ITS DECENT
PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. SHOULD SEE MOST LOCATIONS CLIMB TO AND ABOVE 50
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL START OUT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. THE
STRONG CAA WILL ONLY BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES JUST MAKING IT
INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COOLER. CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NW INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS MOST PLACES AND MAY SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS. AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40S WITH A
FEW PLACES REACHING 50 UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE. IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS
LIGHTENING UP AT THE SURFACE. WILL SEE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING COME SAT NIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS IN STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL BE DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF
FRI INTO SATURDAY INCREASING A LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY IN. OVERALL A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN MORNING
WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GREATEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BEST MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT COME TOGETHER. STRONG LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PCP LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY UNTIL MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY
MON EVENING WITH A DEEPER DRIER AND COOLER NW FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING OVERHEAD TUES
AND THEN OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WED BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ANOTHER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE
GULF ON WED AND MAY SPREAD CLOUDS AND PCP FAR ENOUGH NORTH WED
NIGHT AS IT MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
POST COLD FRONT TUES THROUGH EARLY WED REBOUNDING TOWARD NORMAL BY
WED AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN AND OUT TODAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE INLAND
TERMINALS WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PRECIP...HOWEVER
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL PROBABLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR
LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...THE BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
PUSH ACROSS AND OFFSHORE FROM THE LOCAL WATERS BY MIDDAY. LOOKING
AT VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE-S 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING OF
THE SFC PG AHEAD OF IT...WILL RESULT IN SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
FOLLOWING PERIOD ILLUSTRATES NW WINDS 20-25 KT AFTER THE CFP EARLY
FRI. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SHORT TERM SCA FOR LATE IN THIS
PERIOD INTO THE 1ST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A
LIMITED FETCH FOR WHICH SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BUILD FROM. THE WATERS
EXTENDING FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MYRTLE BEACH WILL LIKELY OBSERVE
SLIGHTLY HIER SEAS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO
THE WSW-W WIND TRAJECTORY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE WITH UP TO 5 TO 6 IN OUR OUTER
WATERS. AN SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN STRONG
GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE N-NW THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EAST AND OVERHEAD BY AFTN. A WEAK
RETURN FLOW MAY SET UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MOVING INTO
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT MORNING
AND UNDER 3 FT BY SAT EVE UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY OFF SHORE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN FLOW MOST OF THE DAY INCREASING
OUT OF THE S-SW BY SUN NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE UP FROM THE GULF COAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THIS
TIME PUSHING SEAS UP FROM DOWN BELOW 3 FT EARLY SUNDAY UP TO 6 TO
8 FT BY EARLY MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BY MON NIGHT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NW TO N ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 291112
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
611 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AHEAD OF IT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT ON WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THIS PERIOD...AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. SHORT WAVE NORTH TO SOUTH
RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH EASTWARD...ACROSS THE FA AND OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
OFF THE COAST THIS AFTN...BOTH HIGH AND MID LEVEL OPAQUE
CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA. MODELS INDICATE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECENT MID-LEVEL S/W TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...WILL PUSH ENE TO THE NE STATES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN TO THE GULF
COAST...WILL PUSH ESE AT A GOOD CLIP THRU TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY GO WITH
A 20 POPS AT BEST SINCE NO TAPPING OF THE GULF OCCURS...AND ANY
ATLANTIC MOISTURE THAT GETS DRAWN IN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS...WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 30S LATE TODAY AND/OR TONIGHT. IT
WILL TAKE SEVERAL UPSTREAM MID LEVEL S/W TROFS OF VARYING
STRENGTH...TO COMBINE AND PRODUCE A NEARLY FULL NORTH TO SOUTH
MID-LATITUDE TROF BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THIS TROF WILL EXTEND
FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTH TO THE NE GULF COAST STATES. THIS
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF WILL HELP QUICKLY PUSH THE SFC COLD FRONT
ACROSS AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY DAYBREAK FRI...TAKING THE
ISOLATED PCPN WITH IT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MINS AS THE 1ST GUESS GIVEN ITS DECENT
PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. SHOULD SEE MOST LOCATIONS CLIMB TO AND ABOVE 50
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL START OUT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. THE
STRONG CAA WILL ONLY BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES JUST MAKING IT
INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COOLER. CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NW INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS MOST PLACES AND MAY SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS. AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40S WITH A
FEW PLACES REACHING 50 UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE. IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS
LIGHTENING UP AT THE SURFACE. WILL SEE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING COME SAT NIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS IN STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL BE DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF
FRI INTO SATURDAY INCREASING A LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY IN. OVERALL A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN MORNING
WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GREATEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BEST MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT COME TOGETHER. STRONG LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PCP LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY UNTIL MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY
MON EVENING WITH A DEEPER DRIER AND COOLER NW FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING OVERHEAD TUES
AND THEN OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WED BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ANOTHER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE
GULF ON WED AND MAY SPREAD CLOUDS AND PCP FAR ENOUGH NORTH WED
NIGHT AS IT MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
POST COLD FRONT TUES THROUGH EARLY WED REBOUNDING TOWARD NORMAL BY
WED AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN AND OUT TODAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE INLAND
TERMINALS WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PRECIP...HOWEVER
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL PROBABLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR
LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...THE BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
PUSH ACROSS AND OFFSHORE FROM THE LOCAL WATERS BY MIDDAY. LOOKING
AT VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE-S 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING OF
THE SFC PG AHEAD OF IT...WILL RESULT IN SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
FOLLOWING PERIOD ILLUSTRATES NW WINDS 20-25 KT AFTER THE CFP EARLY
FRI. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SHORT TERM SCA FOR LATE IN THIS
PERIOD INTO THE 1ST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A
LIMITED FETCH FOR WHICH SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BUILD FROM. THE WATERS
EXTENDING FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MYRTLE BEACH WILL LIKELY OBSERVE
SLIGHTLY HIER SEAS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO
THE WSW-W WIND TRAJECTORY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE WITH UP TO 5 TO 6 IN OUR OUTER
WATERS. AN SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN STRONG
GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE N-NW THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EAST AND OVERHEAD BY AFTN. A WEAK
RETURN FLOW MAY SET UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MOVING INTO
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT MORNING
AND UNDER 3 FT BY SAT EVE UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY OFF SHORE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN FLOW MOST OF THE DAY INCREASING
OUT OF THE S-SW BY SUN NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE UP FROM THE GULF COAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THIS
TIME PUSHING SEAS UP FROM DOWN BELOW 3 FT EARLY SUNDAY UP TO 6 TO
8 FT BY EARLY MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BY MON NIGHT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NW TO N ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43









000
FXUS62 KILM 291104
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
604 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AHEAD OF IT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT ON WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THIS PERIOD...AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. SHORT WAVE NORTH TO SOUTH
RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH EASTWARD...ACROSS THE FA AND OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
OFF THE COAST THIS AFTN...BOTH HIGH AND MID LEVEL OPAQUE
CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA. MODELS INDICATE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECENT MID-LEVEL S/W TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...WILL PUSH ENE TO THE NE STATES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN TO THE GULF
COAST...WILL PUSH ESE AT A GOOD CLIP THRU TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY GO WITH
A 20 POPS AT BEST SINCE NO TAPPING OF THE GULF OCCURS...AND ANY
ATLANTIC MOISTURE THAT GETS DRAWN IN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS...WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 30S LATE TODAY AND/OR TONIGHT. IT
WILL TAKE SEVERAL UPSTREAM MID LEVEL S/W TROFS OF VARYING
STRENGTH...TO COMBINE AND PRODUCE A NEARLY FULL NORTH TO SOUTH
MID-LATITUDE TROF BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THIS TROF WILL EXTEND
FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTH TO THE NE GULF COAST STATES. THIS
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF WILL HELP QUICKLY PUSH THE SFC COLD FRONT
ACROSS AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY DAYBREAK FRI...TAKING THE
ISOLATED PCPN WITH IT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MINS AS THE 1ST GUESS GIVEN ITS DECENT
PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. SHOULD SEE MOST LOCATIONS CLIMB TO AND ABOVE 50
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL START OUT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. THE
STRONG CAA WILL ONLY BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES JUST MAKING IT
INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COOLER. CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NW INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS MOST PLACES AND MAY SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS. AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40S WITH A
FEW PLACES REACHING 50 UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE. IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS
LIGHTENING UP AT THE SURFACE. WILL SEE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING COME SAT NIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS IN STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL BE DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF
FRI INTO SATURDAY INCREASING A LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY IN. OVERALL A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN MORNING
WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GREATEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BEST MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT COME TOGETHER. STRONG LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PCP LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY UNTIL MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY
MON EVENING WITH A DEEPER DRIER AND COOLER NW FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING OVERHEAD TUES
AND THEN OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WED BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ANOTHER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE
GULF ON WED AND MAY SPREAD CLOUDS AND PCP FAR ENOUGH NORTH WED
NIGHT AS IT MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
POST COLD FRONT TUES THROUGH EARLY WED REBOUNDING TOWARD NORMAL BY
WED AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...CENTER OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A SFC BASED INVERSION IN
PLACE. THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY
CALM WINDS. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONTINUES AS SCT/BKN HIGH AND
EVENTUALLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AOB 12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS INLAND POSSIBLE. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...THE BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
PUSH ACROSS AND OFFSHORE FROM THE LOCAL WATERS BY MIDDAY. LOOKING
AT VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE-S 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING OF
THE SFC PG AHEAD OF IT...WILL RESULT IN SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
FOLLOWING PERIOD ILLUSTRATES NW WINDS 20-25 KT AFTER THE CFP EARLY
FRI. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SHORT TERM SCA FOR LATE IN THIS
PERIOD INTO THE 1ST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A
LIMITED FETCH FOR WHICH SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BUILD FROM. THE WATERS
EXTENDING FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MYRTLE BEACH WILL LIKELY OBSERVE
SLIGHTLY HIER SEAS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO
THE WSW-W WIND TRAJECTORY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE WITH UP TO 5 TO 6 IN OUR OUTER
WATERS. AN SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN STRONG
GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE N-NW THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EAST AND OVERHEAD BY AFTN. A WEAK
RETURN FLOW MAY SET UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MOVING INTO
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT MORNING
AND UNDER 3 FT BY SAT EVE UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY OFF SHORE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN FLOW MOST OF THE DAY INCREASING
OUT OF THE S-SW BY SUN NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE UP FROM THE GULF COAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THIS
TIME PUSHING SEAS UP FROM DOWN BELOW 3 FT EARLY SUNDAY UP TO 6 TO
8 FT BY EARLY MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BY MON NIGHT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NW TO N ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 290919
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
419 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AHEAD OF IT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT ON WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THIS PERIOD...AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. SHORT WAVE NORTH TO SOUTH
RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH EASTWARD...ACROSS THE FA AND OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTN...BOTH HIGH AND MID LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDINESS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FA. MODELS INDICATE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DECENT MID-LEVEL S/W TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...WILL PUSH
ENE TO THE NE STATES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST...WILL PUSH ESE AT A
GOOD CLIP THRU TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE APPALACHIANS
THIS EVENING...AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
FRI. AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20 POPS AT BEST SINCE NO
TAPPING OF THE GULF OCCURS...AND ANY ATLANTIC MOISTURE THAT GETS
DRAWN IN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS. LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE
30S LATE TODAY AND/OR TONIGHT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL UPSTREAM MID
LEVEL S/W TROFS OF VARYING STRENGTH...TO COMBINE AND PRODUCE A
NEARLY FULL NORTH TO SOUTH MID-LATITUDE TROF BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS TROF WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTH TO THE NE
GULF COAST STATES. THIS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF WILL HELP QUICKLY PUSH
THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY DAYBREAK
FRI...TAKING THE ISOLATED PCPN WITH IT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MINS AS THE 1ST GUESS GIVEN
ITS DECENT PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SHOULD SEE MOST LOCATIONS CLIMB TO AND ABOVE 50
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL START OUT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. THE
STRONG CAA WILL ONLY BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES JUST MAKING IT
INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COOLER. CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NW INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS MOST PLACES AND MAY SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS. AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40S WITH A
FEW PLACES REACHING 50 UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE. IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS
LIGHTENING UP AT THE SURFACE. WILL SEE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING COME SAT NIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS IN STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL BE DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF
FRI INTO SATURDAY INCREASING A LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY IN. OVERALL A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN MORNING
WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GREATEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BEST MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT COME TOGETHER. STRONG LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PCP LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY UNTIL MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY
MON EVENING WITH A DEEPER DRIER AND COOLER NW FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING OVERHEAD TUES
AND THEN OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WED BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ANOTHER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE
GULF ON WED AND MAY SPREAD CLOUDS AND PCP FAR ENOUGH NORTH WED
NIGHT AS IT MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
POST COLD FRONT TUES THROUGH EARLY WED REBOUNDING TOWARD NORMAL BY
WED AFTN.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...CENTER OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A SFC BASED INVERSION IN
PLACE. THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY
CALM WINDS. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONTINUES AS SCT/BKN HIGH AND
EVENTUALLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AOB 12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS INLAND POSSIBLE. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
PUSH ACROSS AND OFFSHORE FROM THE LOCAL WATERS BY MIDDAY. LOOKING AT
VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE-S 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE
SFC PG AHEAD OF IT...WILL RESULT IN SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO
POSSIBLY 25 KT DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE FOLLOWING
PERIOD ILLUSTRATES NW WINDS 20-25 KT AFTER THE CFP EARLY FRI. THIS
WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SHORT TERM SCA FOR LATE IN THIS PERIOD INTO
THE 1ST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A LIMITED FETCH FOR
WHICH SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BUILD FROM. THE WATERS EXTENDING FROM CAPE
FEAR SOUTH TO MYRTLE BEACH WILL LIKELY OBSERVE SLIGHTLY HIER SEAS
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO THE WSW-W WIND
TRAJECTORY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE WITH UP TO 5 TO 6 IN OUR OUTER
WATERS. AN SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN STRONG
GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE N-NW THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EAST AND OVERHEAD BY AFTN. A WEAK
RETURN FLOW MAY SET UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MOVING INTO
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT MORNING
AND UNDER 3 FT BY SAT EVE UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY OFF SHORE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN FLOW MOST OF THE DAY INCREASING
OUT OF THE S-SW BY SUN NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE UP FROM THE GULF COAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THIS
TIME PUSHING SEAS UP FROM DOWN BELOW 3 FT EARLY SUNDAY UP TO 6 TO
8 FT BY EARLY MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BY MON NIGHT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NW TO N ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL










000
FXUS62 KILM 290919
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
419 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AHEAD OF IT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT ON WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THIS PERIOD...AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. SHORT WAVE NORTH TO SOUTH
RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH EASTWARD...ACROSS THE FA AND OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTN...BOTH HIGH AND MID LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDINESS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FA. MODELS INDICATE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DECENT MID-LEVEL S/W TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...WILL PUSH
ENE TO THE NE STATES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST...WILL PUSH ESE AT A
GOOD CLIP THRU TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE APPALACHIANS
THIS EVENING...AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
FRI. AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20 POPS AT BEST SINCE NO
TAPPING OF THE GULF OCCURS...AND ANY ATLANTIC MOISTURE THAT GETS
DRAWN IN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS. LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE
30S LATE TODAY AND/OR TONIGHT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL UPSTREAM MID
LEVEL S/W TROFS OF VARYING STRENGTH...TO COMBINE AND PRODUCE A
NEARLY FULL NORTH TO SOUTH MID-LATITUDE TROF BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS TROF WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTH TO THE NE
GULF COAST STATES. THIS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF WILL HELP QUICKLY PUSH
THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY DAYBREAK
FRI...TAKING THE ISOLATED PCPN WITH IT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MINS AS THE 1ST GUESS GIVEN
ITS DECENT PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SHOULD SEE MOST LOCATIONS CLIMB TO AND ABOVE 50
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL START OUT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. THE
STRONG CAA WILL ONLY BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES JUST MAKING IT
INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COOLER. CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NW INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TEENS MOST PLACES AND MAY SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS. AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40S WITH A
FEW PLACES REACHING 50 UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE. IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS
LIGHTENING UP AT THE SURFACE. WILL SEE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING COME SAT NIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS IN STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL BE DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF
FRI INTO SATURDAY INCREASING A LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY IN. OVERALL A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN MORNING
WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GREATEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BEST MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT COME TOGETHER. STRONG LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PCP LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY UNTIL MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY
MON EVENING WITH A DEEPER DRIER AND COOLER NW FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING OVERHEAD TUES
AND THEN OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WED BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ANOTHER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE
GULF ON WED AND MAY SPREAD CLOUDS AND PCP FAR ENOUGH NORTH WED
NIGHT AS IT MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
POST COLD FRONT TUES THROUGH EARLY WED REBOUNDING TOWARD NORMAL BY
WED AFTN.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...CENTER OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A SFC BASED INVERSION IN
PLACE. THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY
CALM WINDS. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONTINUES AS SCT/BKN HIGH AND
EVENTUALLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AOB 12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS INLAND POSSIBLE. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
PUSH ACROSS AND OFFSHORE FROM THE LOCAL WATERS BY MIDDAY. LOOKING AT
VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE-S 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE
SFC PG AHEAD OF IT...WILL RESULT IN SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO
POSSIBLY 25 KT DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE FOLLOWING
PERIOD ILLUSTRATES NW WINDS 20-25 KT AFTER THE CFP EARLY FRI. THIS
WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SHORT TERM SCA FOR LATE IN THIS PERIOD INTO
THE 1ST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A LIMITED FETCH FOR
WHICH SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BUILD FROM. THE WATERS EXTENDING FROM CAPE
FEAR SOUTH TO MYRTLE BEACH WILL LIKELY OBSERVE SLIGHTLY HIER SEAS
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO THE WSW-W WIND
TRAJECTORY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
IT. DEEP NW FLOW AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE WITH UP TO 5 TO 6 IN OUR OUTER
WATERS. AN SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN STRONG
GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE N-NW THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EAST AND OVERHEAD BY AFTN. A WEAK
RETURN FLOW MAY SET UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MOVING INTO
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT MORNING
AND UNDER 3 FT BY SAT EVE UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY OFF SHORE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN FLOW MOST OF THE DAY INCREASING
OUT OF THE S-SW BY SUN NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE UP FROM THE GULF COAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THIS
TIME PUSHING SEAS UP FROM DOWN BELOW 3 FT EARLY SUNDAY UP TO 6 TO
8 FT BY EARLY MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BY MON NIGHT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NW TO N ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 290552
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1252 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES NOW RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
THIS EVENING AND WELL ON THEIR WAY AT CURRENT RATE TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR
TERM. LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SHOW NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE
A SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
STILL...CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...AND TEMPS WILL RISE TO
JUST BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OFFSHORE BY FIRST THING FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FROPA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01
INCHES ARE QUITE LOW...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY "STEAL" MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED HAS SCHC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS POP BUT WITH JUST-ABOVE MENTIONABLE VALUES...HIGHEST
AT THE COAST. QPF WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
HELD UP INTO THE UPR 30S/LOW 40S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND SW FLOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...BUT COLD
ADVECTION LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT ON THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL INTO THE
20S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A RETREATING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO A POSITION OFFSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY. BY LATER SUNDAY A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THAT QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CHANCES FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. I DID MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT QPF COULD
BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. BEYOND THIS TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...MONDAY
MAY BE DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS DUE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. I ALSO INTRODUCED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT MOVING SWIFTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST/TRENDS
WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE BUT MOSTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...CENTER OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A SFC BASED INVERSION IN
PLACE. THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY
CALM WINDS. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONTINUES AS SCT/BKN HIGH AND
EVENTUALLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AOB 12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS INLAND POSSIBLE. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. ISOLATED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE CONTINUE IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE THIS EVENING WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. IN KEEPING WITH
THE FORECAST AS DESCRIBED IN RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW...EXPECT SEAS WILL DECAY A FOOT INTO THE 2 TO 3
FT RANGE AS A RESULT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE.

15-20 KT WINDS...2-4 FT SEAS WILL ABATE TO 10-15 KT...2-3 FT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS A COMBINATION OF A MODERATE BUT WANING N-NNE CHOP
RUNNING EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND A BIT OF LONGER PERIOD BACK SWELL
FROM THE NE STORM RUNNING IN LONGER WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS.
SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER INSHORE COMPARED TO
OFFSHORE...SHORTER WAVE PERIODS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT
OFFSHORE...WHILE NEAR-SHORE THE LONGER PERIOD WAVES WILL BE THE
HIGHER WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OVER
THE 0-20 NM WATERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
ON THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LEAVES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL SW WIND
WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
FRIDAY WILL BE A GUSTY DAY AS NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHEN 3-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE COMMON. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST 1-3 FT THURSDAY...AND 2-4 FT
FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE QUITE SHORT ON
FRIDAY HOWEVER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND BE
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COMMENCING. SPEEDS
WILL BE MOSTLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS DURING THIS TIME. A DECENT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
AND TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INCREASING APPRECIABLY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
WINDS. PROBABLY SEE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 290552
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1252 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES NOW RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
THIS EVENING AND WELL ON THEIR WAY AT CURRENT RATE TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR
TERM. LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SHOW NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE
A SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
STILL...CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...AND TEMPS WILL RISE TO
JUST BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OFFSHORE BY FIRST THING FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FROPA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01
INCHES ARE QUITE LOW...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY "STEAL" MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED HAS SCHC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS POP BUT WITH JUST-ABOVE MENTIONABLE VALUES...HIGHEST
AT THE COAST. QPF WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
HELD UP INTO THE UPR 30S/LOW 40S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND SW FLOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...BUT COLD
ADVECTION LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT ON THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL INTO THE
20S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A RETREATING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO A POSITION OFFSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY. BY LATER SUNDAY A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THAT QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CHANCES FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. I DID MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT QPF COULD
BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. BEYOND THIS TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...MONDAY
MAY BE DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS DUE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. I ALSO INTRODUCED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT MOVING SWIFTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST/TRENDS
WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE BUT MOSTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...CENTER OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A SFC BASED INVERSION IN
PLACE. THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY
CALM WINDS. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONTINUES AS SCT/BKN HIGH AND
EVENTUALLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AOB 12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS INLAND POSSIBLE. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. ISOLATED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE CONTINUE IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE THIS EVENING WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. IN KEEPING WITH
THE FORECAST AS DESCRIBED IN RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW...EXPECT SEAS WILL DECAY A FOOT INTO THE 2 TO 3
FT RANGE AS A RESULT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE.

15-20 KT WINDS...2-4 FT SEAS WILL ABATE TO 10-15 KT...2-3 FT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS A COMBINATION OF A MODERATE BUT WANING N-NNE CHOP
RUNNING EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND A BIT OF LONGER PERIOD BACK SWELL
FROM THE NE STORM RUNNING IN LONGER WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS.
SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER INSHORE COMPARED TO
OFFSHORE...SHORTER WAVE PERIODS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT
OFFSHORE...WHILE NEAR-SHORE THE LONGER PERIOD WAVES WILL BE THE
HIGHER WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OVER
THE 0-20 NM WATERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
ON THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LEAVES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL SW WIND
WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
FRIDAY WILL BE A GUSTY DAY AS NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHEN 3-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE COMMON. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST 1-3 FT THURSDAY...AND 2-4 FT
FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE QUITE SHORT ON
FRIDAY HOWEVER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND BE
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COMMENCING. SPEEDS
WILL BE MOSTLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS DURING THIS TIME. A DECENT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
AND TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INCREASING APPRECIABLY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
WINDS. PROBABLY SEE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 290225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
925 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES NOW RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
THIS EVENING AND WELL ON THEIR WAY AT CURRENT RATE TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR
TERM. LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SHOW NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE
A SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
STILL...CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...AND TEMPS WILL RISE TO
JUST BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OFFSHORE BY FIRST THING FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FROPA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01
INCHES ARE QUITE LOW...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY "STEAL" MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED HAS SCHC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS POP BUT WITH JUST-ABOVE MENTIONABLE VALUES...HIGHEST
AT THE COAST. QPF WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
HELD UP INTO THE UPR 30S/LOW 40S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND SW FLOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...BUT COLD
ADVECTION LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT ON THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL INTO THE
20S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A RETREATING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO A POSITION OFFSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY. BY LATER SUNDAY A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THAT QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CHANCES FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. I DID MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT QPF COULD
BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. BEYOND THIS TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...MONDAY
MAY BE DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS DUE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. I ALSO INTRODUCED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT MOVING SWIFTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST/TRENDS
WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE BUT MOSTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. WITH
A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. ON
THURSDAY...VFR CONTINUES AS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AOB 12 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS INLAND POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE CONTINUE IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE THIS EVENING WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. IN KEEPING WITH
THE FORECAST AS DESCRIBED IN RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW...EXPECT SEAS WILL DECAY A FOOT INTO THE 2 TO 3
FT RANGE AS A RESULT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE.

15-20 KT WINDS...2-4 FT SEAS WILL ABATE TO 10-15 KT...2-3 FT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS A COMBINATION OF A MODERATE BUT WANING N-NNE CHOP
RUNNING EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND A BIT OF LONGER PERIOD BACK SWELL
FROM THE NE STORM RUNNING IN LONGER WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS.
SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER INSHORE COMPARED TO
OFFSHORE...SHORTER WAVE PERIODS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT
OFFSHORE...WHILE NEAR-SHORE THE LONGER PERIOD WAVES WILL BE THE
HIGHER WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OVER
THE 0-20 NM WATERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
ON THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LEAVES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL SW WIND
WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
FRIDAY WILL BE A GUSTY DAY AS NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHEN 3-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE COMMON. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST 1-3 FT THURSDAY...AND 2-4 FT
FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE QUITE SHORT ON
FRIDAY HOWEVER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND BE
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COMMENCING. SPEEDS
WILL BE MOSTLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS DURING THIS TIME. A DECENT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
AND TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INCREASING APPRECIABLY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
WINDS. PROBABLY SEE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK






000
FXUS62 KILM 290225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
925 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES NOW RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
THIS EVENING AND WELL ON THEIR WAY AT CURRENT RATE TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR
TERM. LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SHOW NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE
A SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
STILL...CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...AND TEMPS WILL RISE TO
JUST BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OFFSHORE BY FIRST THING FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FROPA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01
INCHES ARE QUITE LOW...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY "STEAL" MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED HAS SCHC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS POP BUT WITH JUST-ABOVE MENTIONABLE VALUES...HIGHEST
AT THE COAST. QPF WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
HELD UP INTO THE UPR 30S/LOW 40S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND SW FLOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...BUT COLD
ADVECTION LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT ON THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL INTO THE
20S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A RETREATING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO A POSITION OFFSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY. BY LATER SUNDAY A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THAT QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CHANCES FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. I DID MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT QPF COULD
BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. BEYOND THIS TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...MONDAY
MAY BE DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS DUE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. I ALSO INTRODUCED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT MOVING SWIFTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST/TRENDS
WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE BUT MOSTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. WITH
A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. ON
THURSDAY...VFR CONTINUES AS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AOB 12 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS INLAND POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE CONTINUE IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE THIS EVENING WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. IN KEEPING WITH
THE FORECAST AS DESCRIBED IN RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW...EXPECT SEAS WILL DECAY A FOOT INTO THE 2 TO 3
FT RANGE AS A RESULT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE.

15-20 KT WINDS...2-4 FT SEAS WILL ABATE TO 10-15 KT...2-3 FT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS A COMBINATION OF A MODERATE BUT WANING N-NNE CHOP
RUNNING EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND A BIT OF LONGER PERIOD BACK SWELL
FROM THE NE STORM RUNNING IN LONGER WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS.
SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER INSHORE COMPARED TO
OFFSHORE...SHORTER WAVE PERIODS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT
OFFSHORE...WHILE NEAR-SHORE THE LONGER PERIOD WAVES WILL BE THE
HIGHER WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OVER
THE 0-20 NM WATERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
ON THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LEAVES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL SW WIND
WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
FRIDAY WILL BE A GUSTY DAY AS NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHEN 3-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE COMMON. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST 1-3 FT THURSDAY...AND 2-4 FT
FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE QUITE SHORT ON
FRIDAY HOWEVER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND BE
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COMMENCING. SPEEDS
WILL BE MOSTLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS DURING THIS TIME. A DECENT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
AND TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INCREASING APPRECIABLY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
WINDS. PROBABLY SEE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 282355
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL IN THE 30S THIS
EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AND CALM WINDS. LATEST TRENDS
AND GUIDANCE SHOW NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
A VERY COLD AND DRY OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS AND A BIT
HIGHER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE
A SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
STILL...CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...AND TEMPS WILL RISE TO
JUST BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OFFSHORE BY FIRST THING FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FROPA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01
INCHES ARE QUITE LOW...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY "STEAL" MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED HAS SCHC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS POP BUT WITH JUST-ABOVE MENTIONABLE VALUES...HIGHEST
AT THE COAST. QPF WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
HELD UP INTO THE UPR 30S/LOW 40S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND SW FLOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...BUT COLD
ADVECTION LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT ON THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL INTO THE
20S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A RETREATING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO A POSITION OFFSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY. BY LATER SUNDAY A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THAT QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CHANCES FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. I DID MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT QPF COULD
BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. BEYOND THIS TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...MONDAY
MAY BE DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS DUE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. I ALSO INTRODUCED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT MOVING SWIFTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST/TRENDS
WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE BUT MOSTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. WITH
A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. ON
THURSDAY...VFR CONTINUES AS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AOB 12 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS INLAND POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED INTO THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE THIS EVENING WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. IN KEEPING WITH
THE FORECAST AS DESCRIBED IN RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW...EXPECT SEAS WILL DECAY A FOOT INTO THE 2 TO 3
FT RANGE AS A RESULT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE.

15-20 KT WINDS...2-4 FT SEAS WILL ABATE TO 10-15 KT...2-3 FT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS A COMBINATION OF A MODERATE BUT WANING N-NNE CHOP
RUNNING EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND A BIT OF LONGER PERIOD BACK SWELL
FROM THE NE STORM RUNNING IN LONGER WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS.
SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER INSHORE COMPARED TO
OFFSHORE...SHORTER WAVE PERIODS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT
OFFSHORE...WHILE NEAR-SHORE THE LONGER PERIOD WAVES WILL BE THE
HIGHER WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OVER
THE 0-20 NM WATERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
ON THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LEAVES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL SW WIND
WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
FRIDAY WILL BE A GUSTY DAY AS NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHEN 3-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE COMMON. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST 1-3 FT THURSDAY...AND 2-4 FT
FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE QUITE SHORT ON
FRIDAY HOWEVER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND BE
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COMMENCING. SPEEDS
WILL BE MOSTLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS DURING THIS TIME. A DECENT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
AND TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INCREASING APPRECIABLY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
WINDS. PROBABLY SEE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 282355
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL IN THE 30S THIS
EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AND CALM WINDS. LATEST TRENDS
AND GUIDANCE SHOW NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
A VERY COLD AND DRY OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS AND A BIT
HIGHER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE
A SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
STILL...CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...AND TEMPS WILL RISE TO
JUST BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OFFSHORE BY FIRST THING FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FROPA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01
INCHES ARE QUITE LOW...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY "STEAL" MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED HAS SCHC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS POP BUT WITH JUST-ABOVE MENTIONABLE VALUES...HIGHEST
AT THE COAST. QPF WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
HELD UP INTO THE UPR 30S/LOW 40S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND SW FLOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...BUT COLD
ADVECTION LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT ON THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL INTO THE
20S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A RETREATING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO A POSITION OFFSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY. BY LATER SUNDAY A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THAT QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CHANCES FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. I DID MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT QPF COULD
BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. BEYOND THIS TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...MONDAY
MAY BE DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS DUE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. I ALSO INTRODUCED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT MOVING SWIFTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST/TRENDS
WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE BUT MOSTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. WITH
A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. ON
THURSDAY...VFR CONTINUES AS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AOB 12 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS INLAND POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED INTO THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE THIS EVENING WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. IN KEEPING WITH
THE FORECAST AS DESCRIBED IN RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW...EXPECT SEAS WILL DECAY A FOOT INTO THE 2 TO 3
FT RANGE AS A RESULT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE.

15-20 KT WINDS...2-4 FT SEAS WILL ABATE TO 10-15 KT...2-3 FT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS A COMBINATION OF A MODERATE BUT WANING N-NNE CHOP
RUNNING EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND A BIT OF LONGER PERIOD BACK SWELL
FROM THE NE STORM RUNNING IN LONGER WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS.
SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER INSHORE COMPARED TO
OFFSHORE...SHORTER WAVE PERIODS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT
OFFSHORE...WHILE NEAR-SHORE THE LONGER PERIOD WAVES WILL BE THE
HIGHER WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OVER
THE 0-20 NM WATERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
ON THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LEAVES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL SW WIND
WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
FRIDAY WILL BE A GUSTY DAY AS NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHEN 3-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE COMMON. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST 1-3 FT THURSDAY...AND 2-4 FT
FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE QUITE SHORT ON
FRIDAY HOWEVER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND BE
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COMMENCING. SPEEDS
WILL BE MOSTLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS DURING THIS TIME. A DECENT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
AND TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INCREASING APPRECIABLY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
WINDS. PROBABLY SEE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK






000
FXUS62 KILM 282108
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
408 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD AND STAR FILLED SKY EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-12 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE SURFACE
UPWARD WILL ABATE AS HIGH PRESSURE LOW-LEVEL AND ALOFT MIGRATE
OVER NE SC AND SE NC DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE AN
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP...WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
AT FIRST LIGHT THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20 ACROSS
MOST OF OUR INLAND SITES...AND UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 COASTAL
LOCALS. UPSTREAM THIN CIRRUS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE PRE-DAWN WITH MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURE
CURVES AS MUCH OF THIS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE ON APPROACH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE A
SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
STILL...CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...AND TEMPS WILL RISE TO
JUST BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
OFFSHORE BY FIRST THING FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS LIMITED...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST
AHEAD OF THE FROPA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01 INCHES ARE QUITE
LOW...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY "STEAL" MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY.
INHERITED HAS SCHC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS POP
BUT WITH JUST-ABOVE MENTIONABLE VALUES...HIGHEST AT THE COAST. QPF
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP INTO THE
UPR 30S/LOW 40S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND SW FLOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...BUT COLD
ADVECTION LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES A SUNNY
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A RETREATING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO A POSITION OFFSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY. BY LATER SUNDAY A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THAT QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CHANCES FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. I DID MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT QPF COULD
BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. BEYOND THIS TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...MONDAY
MAY BE DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS DUE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. I ALSO INTRODUCED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT MOVING SWIFTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST/TRENDS
WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE BUT MOSTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY...KEEPING US CLOUD-FREE WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10
KT. COULD SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...BUT BY SUNSET WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE AIR MASS IS FAR TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS MUCH OF
TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE A BIT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST EDGES CLOSER TO THE 0-20 NM WATERS. 15-20 KT WINDS...2-4 FT
SEAS WILL ABATE TO 10-15 KT...2-3 FT OVERNIGHT. SEAS A COMBINATION
OF A MODERATE BUT WANING N-NNE CHOP RUNNING EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND
A BIT OF LONGER PERIOD BACK SWELL FROM THE NE STORM RUNNING IN
LONGER WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS. SINCE WINDSPEEDS WILL BE
LOWER INSHORE COMPARED TO OFFSHORE...SHORTER WAVE PERIODS WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT OFFSHORE...WHILE NEAR-SHORE THE LONGER PERIOD
WAVES WILL BE THE HIGHER WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY OVER THE 0-20 NM WATERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
ON THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LEAVES LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND FRIDAY WILL
BE A GUSTY DAY AS NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WHEN 3-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE COMMON. OTHERWISE
EXPECT JUST 1-3 FT THURSDAY...AND 2-4 FT FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WAVE PERIODS WILL BE QUITE SHORT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND BE
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COMMENCING. SPEEDS
WILL BE MOSTLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS DURING THIS TIME. A DECENT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
AND TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INCREASING APPRECIABLY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
WINDS. PROBABLY SEE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/JDW/SHK









000
FXUS62 KILM 282108
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
408 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD AND STAR FILLED SKY EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-12 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE SURFACE
UPWARD WILL ABATE AS HIGH PRESSURE LOW-LEVEL AND ALOFT MIGRATE
OVER NE SC AND SE NC DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE AN
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP...WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
AT FIRST LIGHT THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20 ACROSS
MOST OF OUR INLAND SITES...AND UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 COASTAL
LOCALS. UPSTREAM THIN CIRRUS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE PRE-DAWN WITH MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURE
CURVES AS MUCH OF THIS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE ON APPROACH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE A
SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
STILL...CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...AND TEMPS WILL RISE TO
JUST BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
OFFSHORE BY FIRST THING FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS LIMITED...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST
AHEAD OF THE FROPA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01 INCHES ARE QUITE
LOW...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY "STEAL" MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY.
INHERITED HAS SCHC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS POP
BUT WITH JUST-ABOVE MENTIONABLE VALUES...HIGHEST AT THE COAST. QPF
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP INTO THE
UPR 30S/LOW 40S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND SW FLOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...BUT COLD
ADVECTION LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES A SUNNY
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A RETREATING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO A POSITION OFFSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY. BY LATER SUNDAY A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THAT QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CHANCES FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. I DID MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT QPF COULD
BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. BEYOND THIS TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...MONDAY
MAY BE DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS DUE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. I ALSO INTRODUCED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT MOVING SWIFTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST/TRENDS
WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE BUT MOSTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY...KEEPING US CLOUD-FREE WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10
KT. COULD SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...BUT BY SUNSET WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE AIR MASS IS FAR TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS MUCH OF
TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE A BIT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST EDGES CLOSER TO THE 0-20 NM WATERS. 15-20 KT WINDS...2-4 FT
SEAS WILL ABATE TO 10-15 KT...2-3 FT OVERNIGHT. SEAS A COMBINATION
OF A MODERATE BUT WANING N-NNE CHOP RUNNING EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND
A BIT OF LONGER PERIOD BACK SWELL FROM THE NE STORM RUNNING IN
LONGER WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS. SINCE WINDSPEEDS WILL BE
LOWER INSHORE COMPARED TO OFFSHORE...SHORTER WAVE PERIODS WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT OFFSHORE...WHILE NEAR-SHORE THE LONGER PERIOD
WAVES WILL BE THE HIGHER WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY OVER THE 0-20 NM WATERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
ON THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LEAVES LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND FRIDAY WILL
BE A GUSTY DAY AS NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WHEN 3-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE COMMON. OTHERWISE
EXPECT JUST 1-3 FT THURSDAY...AND 2-4 FT FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WAVE PERIODS WILL BE QUITE SHORT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND BE
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COMMENCING. SPEEDS
WILL BE MOSTLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS DURING THIS TIME. A DECENT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
AND TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INCREASING APPRECIABLY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
WINDS. PROBABLY SEE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/JDW/SHK










000
FXUS62 KILM 281734
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1234 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TODAY AND
OVERHEAD THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A GOOD RAIN SOAKING IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1234 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE MIDDAY UPDATE...CLEAR AND COOL WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL EVEN FOR LATE JANUARY STANDARDS. THE PREVIOUS MORNING
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N WILL REINFORCE THE
DRY AND CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY. DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS CONFIRM THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 8 DEG C THIS MORNING. A
CHILLING NORTH WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S EARLY THIS MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT
SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN
THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE
CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES.

DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UNDER A QUARTER INCH. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY OVERCOME ANY SHALLOW CUMULUS THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP AROUND 5
KFT. THUS...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY CLOUDS SKIRTING MAINLY THE CAPE FEAR
REGION THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF NEW ENGLAND
LOW PRESSURE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THU.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS
WINDS QUICKLY GO CALM. THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING ACROSS MID AMERICA
MAY BRING SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TOWARD
THU MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST
DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY THURS
EVE. INITIALLY A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AT THE SFC WHILE
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST LEAVING MORE
OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. ENERGY UPSTREAM IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL DRIVE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EAST ON THURS.
THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS AROUND ON THURS BUT AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST FURTHER...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL COME AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK IN W-SW FLOW. PCP
WATER VALUES REACH UP CLOSER TO AN INCH BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN...THE
LOWEST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS DRIER AND WILL NOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE BRIEF AND
LIMITED MORE ABOVE 5K FT. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE LOW END POPS BUT
NOT MUCH AT ALL IN TERMS OF QPF.

PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY
FRI AFTN AS WE TAP INTO COLD CANADIAN AIR IN DEEP NW FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRI AND DROP TO BELOW FREEZING FRI NIGHT IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT. AFTER A
COLD START SAT MORNING...TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 40S MOST
PLACES. THE BEST CAA WILL SHUT OFF BY SAT NIGHT BUT MORE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING MOST
PLACES SAT NIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING COLD FRONT EAST
AS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PCP
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
BY MON AFTN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AND COLD AIR FOR MID
WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START WILL WARM CLOSER TO 60 BY MONDAY
IN RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE S-SW. 850 TEMPS DOWN NEAR 0C ON SATURDAY
WILL REBOUND UP CLOSE TO 11C BY MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE
WILL COME IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS INITIALLY...THE COLUMN WILL
BECOME SATURATED SUN NIGHT WITH GREATEST CHC OF PCP AT THAT TIME.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE IN DECENT WAA KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S MOST
PLACES SUN NIGHT. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUES.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEG EARLY THIS
MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S
DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY...KEEPING US CLOUD-FREE WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10
KT. COULD SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...BUT BY SUNSET WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE AIR MASS IS FAR TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1234 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THE MIDDAY UPDATE. THE CAUTIONARY HEADLINE EXPIRED AT NOON. THE
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE N WILL BRING A PROGRESSIVELY SLACK
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD
OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DRY/CHILLY SURGE...NEAR
20 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...THE DIRECTION WILL BE N. SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING...3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING TO 10 TO
15 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION VERY SLOWLY
VEERS TO NNE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND 2 FT
OR LESS BY THU MORNING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE
SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST THURS NIGHT. RETURN FLOW LATE THU WILL INCREASE UP TO A
20 KTS OR SO THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY FRI MORNING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND SLOWLY TO THE N-NW
THROUGH FRI NIGHT REMAINING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL
DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REACHING CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
OVERNIGHT THURS. SEAS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY IN NW-N FLOW ON BACK END
BUT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OVER THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW SETTLING OVERHEAD ON SAT.
SEAS WILL DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT MOST WATERS BY SAT AFTN INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAPID RISE IN SEAS SUNDAY EVE INTO
SUN NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8








000
FXUS62 KILM 281734
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1234 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TODAY AND
OVERHEAD THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A GOOD RAIN SOAKING IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1234 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE MIDDAY UPDATE...CLEAR AND COOL WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL EVEN FOR LATE JANUARY STANDARDS. THE PREVIOUS MORNING
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N WILL REINFORCE THE
DRY AND CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY. DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS CONFIRM THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 8 DEG C THIS MORNING. A
CHILLING NORTH WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S EARLY THIS MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT
SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN
THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE
CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES.

DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UNDER A QUARTER INCH. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY OVERCOME ANY SHALLOW CUMULUS THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP AROUND 5
KFT. THUS...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY CLOUDS SKIRTING MAINLY THE CAPE FEAR
REGION THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF NEW ENGLAND
LOW PRESSURE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THU.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS
WINDS QUICKLY GO CALM. THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING ACROSS MID AMERICA
MAY BRING SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TOWARD
THU MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST
DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY THURS
EVE. INITIALLY A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AT THE SFC WHILE
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST LEAVING MORE
OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. ENERGY UPSTREAM IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL DRIVE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EAST ON THURS.
THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS AROUND ON THURS BUT AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST FURTHER...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL COME AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK IN W-SW FLOW. PCP
WATER VALUES REACH UP CLOSER TO AN INCH BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN...THE
LOWEST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS DRIER AND WILL NOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE BRIEF AND
LIMITED MORE ABOVE 5K FT. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE LOW END POPS BUT
NOT MUCH AT ALL IN TERMS OF QPF.

PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY
FRI AFTN AS WE TAP INTO COLD CANADIAN AIR IN DEEP NW FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRI AND DROP TO BELOW FREEZING FRI NIGHT IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT. AFTER A
COLD START SAT MORNING...TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 40S MOST
PLACES. THE BEST CAA WILL SHUT OFF BY SAT NIGHT BUT MORE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING MOST
PLACES SAT NIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING COLD FRONT EAST
AS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PCP
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
BY MON AFTN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AND COLD AIR FOR MID
WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START WILL WARM CLOSER TO 60 BY MONDAY
IN RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE S-SW. 850 TEMPS DOWN NEAR 0C ON SATURDAY
WILL REBOUND UP CLOSE TO 11C BY MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE
WILL COME IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS INITIALLY...THE COLUMN WILL
BECOME SATURATED SUN NIGHT WITH GREATEST CHC OF PCP AT THAT TIME.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE IN DECENT WAA KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S MOST
PLACES SUN NIGHT. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUES.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEG EARLY THIS
MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S
DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY...KEEPING US CLOUD-FREE WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10
KT. COULD SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...BUT BY SUNSET WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE AIR MASS IS FAR TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1234 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THE MIDDAY UPDATE. THE CAUTIONARY HEADLINE EXPIRED AT NOON. THE
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE N WILL BRING A PROGRESSIVELY SLACK
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD
OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DRY/CHILLY SURGE...NEAR
20 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...THE DIRECTION WILL BE N. SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING...3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING TO 10 TO
15 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION VERY SLOWLY
VEERS TO NNE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND 2 FT
OR LESS BY THU MORNING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE
SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST THURS NIGHT. RETURN FLOW LATE THU WILL INCREASE UP TO A
20 KTS OR SO THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY FRI MORNING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND SLOWLY TO THE N-NW
THROUGH FRI NIGHT REMAINING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL
DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REACHING CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
OVERNIGHT THURS. SEAS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY IN NW-N FLOW ON BACK END
BUT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OVER THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW SETTLING OVERHEAD ON SAT.
SEAS WILL DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT MOST WATERS BY SAT AFTN INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAPID RISE IN SEAS SUNDAY EVE INTO
SUN NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8







000
FXUS62 KILM 281526
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1026 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1026 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE MID MORNING UPDATE...CLEAR AND COOL WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL EVEN FOR LATE JANUARY STANDARDS. THE PREVIOUS MORNING
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N WILL REINFORCE THE
DRY AND CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY. DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS CONFIRM THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 8 DEG C THIS MORNING. A
CHILLING NORTH WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S EARLY THIS MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT
SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN
THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE
CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES.

DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UNDER A QUARTER INCH. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY OVERCOME ANY SHALLOW CUMULUS THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP AROUND 5
KFT. THUS...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY CLOUDS SKIRTING MAINLY THE CAPE FEAR
REGION THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF NEW ENGLAND
LOW PRESSURE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THU.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS
WINDS QUICKLY GO CALM. THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING ACROSS MID AMERICA
MAY BRING SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TOWARD
THU MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST
DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY THURS
EVE. INITIALLY A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AT THE SFC WHILE
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST LEAVING MORE
OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. ENERGY UPSTREAM IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL DRIVE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EAST ON THURS.
THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS AROUND ON THURS BUT AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST FURTHER...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL COME AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK IN W-SW FLOW. PCP
WATER VALUES REACH UP CLOSER TO AN INCH BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN...THE
LOWEST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS DRIER AND WILL NOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE BRIEF AND
LIMITED MORE ABOVE 5K FT. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE LOW END POPS BUT
NOT MUCH AT ALL IN TERMS OF QPF.

PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY
FRI AFTN AS WE TAP INTO COLD CANADIAN AIR IN DEEP NW FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRI AND DROP TO BELOW FREEZING FRI NIGHT IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT. AFTER A
COLD START SAT MORNING...TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 40S MOST
PLACES. THE BEST CAA WILL SHUT OFF BY SAT NIGHT BUT MORE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING MOST
PLACES SAT NIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING COLD FRONT EAST
AS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PCP
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
BY MON AFTN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AND COLD AIR FOR MID
WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START WILL WARM CLOSER TO 60 BY MONDAY
IN RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE S-SW. 850 TEMPS DOWN NEAR 0C ON SATURDAY
WILL REBOUND UP CLOSE TO 11C BY MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE
WILL COME IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS INITIALLY...THE COLUMN WILL
BECOME SATURATED SUN NIGHT WITH GREATEST CHC OF PCP AT THAT TIME.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE IN DECENT WAA KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S MOST
PLACES SUN NIGHT. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUES.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEG EARLY THIS
MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S
DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING EASTWARD TODAY...MAINTAINING
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING. NO CLOUDS TO SPEAK
OF TODAY THANKS TO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
CAROLINAS. GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...BRINGING LIGHT/CALM WINDS INTO THU
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THE MID MORNING UPDATE. IT APPEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE
CAUTION STATEMENT AT MIDDAY. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL BE VALID TIL
NOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE N WILL BRING A PROGRESSIVELY SLACK
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD
OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DRY/CHILLY SURGE...NEAR
20 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...THE DIRECTION WILL BE N. SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING...3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING TO 10 TO
15 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION VERY SLOWLY
VEERS TO NNE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND 2 FT
OR LESS BY THU MORNING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE
SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST THURS NIGHT. RETURN FLOW LATE THU WILL INCREASE UP TO A
20 KTS OR SO THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY FRI MORNING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND SLOWLY TO THE N-NW
THROUGH FRI NIGHT REMAINING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL
DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REACHING CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
OVERNIGHT THURS. SEAS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY IN NW-N FLOW ON BACK END
BUT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OVER THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW SETTLING OVERHEAD ON SAT.
SEAS WILL DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT MOST WATERS BY SAT AFTN INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAPID RISE IN SEAS SUNDAY EVE INTO
SUN NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 281526
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1026 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1026 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE MID MORNING UPDATE...CLEAR AND COOL WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL EVEN FOR LATE JANUARY STANDARDS. THE PREVIOUS MORNING
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N WILL REINFORCE THE
DRY AND CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY. DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS CONFIRM THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 8 DEG C THIS MORNING. A
CHILLING NORTH WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S EARLY THIS MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT
SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN
THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE
CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES.

DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UNDER A QUARTER INCH. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY OVERCOME ANY SHALLOW CUMULUS THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP AROUND 5
KFT. THUS...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY CLOUDS SKIRTING MAINLY THE CAPE FEAR
REGION THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF NEW ENGLAND
LOW PRESSURE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THU.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS
WINDS QUICKLY GO CALM. THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING ACROSS MID AMERICA
MAY BRING SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TOWARD
THU MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST
DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY THURS
EVE. INITIALLY A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AT THE SFC WHILE
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST LEAVING MORE
OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. ENERGY UPSTREAM IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL DRIVE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EAST ON THURS.
THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS AROUND ON THURS BUT AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST FURTHER...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL COME AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK IN W-SW FLOW. PCP
WATER VALUES REACH UP CLOSER TO AN INCH BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN...THE
LOWEST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS DRIER AND WILL NOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE BRIEF AND
LIMITED MORE ABOVE 5K FT. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE LOW END POPS BUT
NOT MUCH AT ALL IN TERMS OF QPF.

PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY
FRI AFTN AS WE TAP INTO COLD CANADIAN AIR IN DEEP NW FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRI AND DROP TO BELOW FREEZING FRI NIGHT IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT. AFTER A
COLD START SAT MORNING...TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 40S MOST
PLACES. THE BEST CAA WILL SHUT OFF BY SAT NIGHT BUT MORE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING MOST
PLACES SAT NIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING COLD FRONT EAST
AS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PCP
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
BY MON AFTN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AND COLD AIR FOR MID
WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START WILL WARM CLOSER TO 60 BY MONDAY
IN RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE S-SW. 850 TEMPS DOWN NEAR 0C ON SATURDAY
WILL REBOUND UP CLOSE TO 11C BY MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE
WILL COME IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS INITIALLY...THE COLUMN WILL
BECOME SATURATED SUN NIGHT WITH GREATEST CHC OF PCP AT THAT TIME.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE IN DECENT WAA KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S MOST
PLACES SUN NIGHT. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUES.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEG EARLY THIS
MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S
DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING EASTWARD TODAY...MAINTAINING
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING. NO CLOUDS TO SPEAK
OF TODAY THANKS TO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
CAROLINAS. GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...BRINGING LIGHT/CALM WINDS INTO THU
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THE MID MORNING UPDATE. IT APPEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE
CAUTION STATEMENT AT MIDDAY. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL BE VALID TIL
NOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE N WILL BRING A PROGRESSIVELY SLACK
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD
OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DRY/CHILLY SURGE...NEAR
20 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...THE DIRECTION WILL BE N. SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING...3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING TO 10 TO
15 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION VERY SLOWLY
VEERS TO NNE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND 2 FT
OR LESS BY THU MORNING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE
SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST THURS NIGHT. RETURN FLOW LATE THU WILL INCREASE UP TO A
20 KTS OR SO THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY FRI MORNING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND SLOWLY TO THE N-NW
THROUGH FRI NIGHT REMAINING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL
DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REACHING CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
OVERNIGHT THURS. SEAS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY IN NW-N FLOW ON BACK END
BUT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OVER THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW SETTLING OVERHEAD ON SAT.
SEAS WILL DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT MOST WATERS BY SAT AFTN INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAPID RISE IN SEAS SUNDAY EVE INTO
SUN NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 281138
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE N WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY.
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS CONFIRM THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 8 DEG C THIS
MORNING. A CHILLING NORTH WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW
AS THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S EARLY THIS MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT
SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN
THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE
CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES.

DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UNDER A QUARTER INCH. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY OVERCOME ANY SHALLOW CUMULUS THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP AROUND 5
KFT. THUS...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY CLOUDS SKIRTING MAINLY THE CAPE FEAR
REGION THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF NEW ENGLAND
LOW PRESSURE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THU.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS
WINDS QUICKLY GO CALM. THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING ACROSS MID AMERICA
MAY BRING SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TOWARD
THU MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST
DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY THURS
EVE. INITIALLY A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AT THE SFC WHILE
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST LEAVING MORE
OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. ENERGY UPSTREAM IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL DRIVE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EAST ON THURS.
THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS AROUND ON THURS BUT AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST FURTHER...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL COME AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK IN W-SW FLOW. PCP
WATER VALUES REACH UP CLOSER TO AN INCH BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN...THE
LOWEST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS DRIER AND WILL NOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE BRIEF AND
LIMITED MORE ABOVE 5K FT. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE LOW END POPS BUT
NOT MUCH AT ALL IN TERMS OF QPF.

PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY
FRI AFTN AS WE TAP INTO COLD CANADIAN AIR IN DEEP NW FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRI AND DROP TO BELOW FREEZING FRI NIGHT IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT. AFTER A
COLD START SAT MORNING...TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 40S MOST
PLACES. THE BEST CAA WILL SHUT OFF BY SAT NIGHT BUT MORE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING MOST
PLACES SAT NIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING COLD FRONT EAST
AS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PCP
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
BY MON AFTN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AND COLD AIR FOR MID
WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START WILL WARM CLOSER TO 60 BY MONDAY
IN RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE S-SW. 850 TEMPS DOWN NEAR 0C ON SATURDAY
WILL REBOUND UP CLOSE TO 11C BY MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE
WILL COME IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS INITIALLY...THE COLUMN WILL
BECOME SATURATED SUN NIGHT WITH GREATEST CHC OF PCP AT THAT TIME.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE IN DECENT WAA KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S MOST
PLACES SUN NIGHT. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUES.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEG EARLY THIS
MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S
DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING EASTWARD TODAY...MAINTAINING
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING. NO CLOUDS TO SPEAK
OF TODAY THANKS TO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
CAROLINAS. GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...BRINGING LIGHT/CALM WINDS INTO THU
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE WILL BE VALID TIL NOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE N WILL BRING A PROGRESSIVELY SLACK
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD
OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DRY/CHILLY SURGE...NEAR
20 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...THE DIRECTION WILL BE N. SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING...3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING TO 10 TO
15 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION VERY SLOWLY
VEERS TO NNE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND 2 FT
OR LESS BY THU MORNING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE
SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST THURS NIGHT. RETURN FLOW LATE THU WILL INCREASE UP TO A
20 KTS OR SO THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY FRI MORNING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND SLOWLY TO THE N-NW
THROUGH FRI NIGHT REMAINING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL
DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REACHING CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
OVERNIGHT THURS. SEAS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY IN NW-N FLOW ON BACK END
BUT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OVER THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW SETTLING OVERHEAD ON SAT.
SEAS WILL DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT MOST WATERS BY SAT AFTN INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAPID RISE IN SEAS SUNDAY EVE INTO
SUN NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR










000
FXUS62 KILM 281138
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE N WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY.
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS CONFIRM THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 8 DEG C THIS
MORNING. A CHILLING NORTH WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW
AS THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S EARLY THIS MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT
SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN
THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE
CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES.

DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UNDER A QUARTER INCH. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY OVERCOME ANY SHALLOW CUMULUS THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP AROUND 5
KFT. THUS...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY CLOUDS SKIRTING MAINLY THE CAPE FEAR
REGION THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF NEW ENGLAND
LOW PRESSURE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THU.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS
WINDS QUICKLY GO CALM. THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING ACROSS MID AMERICA
MAY BRING SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TOWARD
THU MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST
DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY THURS
EVE. INITIALLY A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AT THE SFC WHILE
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST LEAVING MORE
OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. ENERGY UPSTREAM IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL DRIVE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EAST ON THURS.
THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS AROUND ON THURS BUT AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST FURTHER...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL COME AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK IN W-SW FLOW. PCP
WATER VALUES REACH UP CLOSER TO AN INCH BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN...THE
LOWEST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS DRIER AND WILL NOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE BRIEF AND
LIMITED MORE ABOVE 5K FT. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE LOW END POPS BUT
NOT MUCH AT ALL IN TERMS OF QPF.

PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY
FRI AFTN AS WE TAP INTO COLD CANADIAN AIR IN DEEP NW FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRI AND DROP TO BELOW FREEZING FRI NIGHT IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT. AFTER A
COLD START SAT MORNING...TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 40S MOST
PLACES. THE BEST CAA WILL SHUT OFF BY SAT NIGHT BUT MORE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING MOST
PLACES SAT NIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING COLD FRONT EAST
AS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PCP
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
BY MON AFTN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AND COLD AIR FOR MID
WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START WILL WARM CLOSER TO 60 BY MONDAY
IN RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE S-SW. 850 TEMPS DOWN NEAR 0C ON SATURDAY
WILL REBOUND UP CLOSE TO 11C BY MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE
WILL COME IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS INITIALLY...THE COLUMN WILL
BECOME SATURATED SUN NIGHT WITH GREATEST CHC OF PCP AT THAT TIME.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE IN DECENT WAA KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S MOST
PLACES SUN NIGHT. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUES.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEG EARLY THIS
MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S
DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING EASTWARD TODAY...MAINTAINING
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING. NO CLOUDS TO SPEAK
OF TODAY THANKS TO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
CAROLINAS. GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...BRINGING LIGHT/CALM WINDS INTO THU
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE WILL BE VALID TIL NOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE N WILL BRING A PROGRESSIVELY SLACK
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD
OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DRY/CHILLY SURGE...NEAR
20 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...THE DIRECTION WILL BE N. SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING...3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING TO 10 TO
15 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION VERY SLOWLY
VEERS TO NNE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND 2 FT
OR LESS BY THU MORNING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE
SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST THURS NIGHT. RETURN FLOW LATE THU WILL INCREASE UP TO A
20 KTS OR SO THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY FRI MORNING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND SLOWLY TO THE N-NW
THROUGH FRI NIGHT REMAINING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL
DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REACHING CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
OVERNIGHT THURS. SEAS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY IN NW-N FLOW ON BACK END
BUT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OVER THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW SETTLING OVERHEAD ON SAT.
SEAS WILL DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT MOST WATERS BY SAT AFTN INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAPID RISE IN SEAS SUNDAY EVE INTO
SUN NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR









000
FXUS62 KILM 280832
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
332 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE N WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY.
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS CONFIRM THE DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MINUS 5 TO MINUS 8 DEG C THIS MORNING.

DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UNDER A QUARTER INCH. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY OVERCOME ANY SHALLOW CUMULUS THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP AROUND 5
KFT. THUS...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY CLOUDS SKIRTING MAINLY THE CAPE FEAR
REGION THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF NEW ENGLAND
LOW PRESSURE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THU.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS
WINDS QUICKLY GO CALM. THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING ACROSS MID AMERICA
MAY BRING SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TOWARD
THU MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST
DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY THURS
EVE. INITIALLY A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AT THE SFC WHILE
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST LEAVING MORE
OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. ENERGY UPSTREAM IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL DRIVE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EAST ON THURS.
THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS AROUND ON THURS BUT AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST FURTHER...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL COME AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK IN W-SW FLOW. PCP
WATER VALUES REACH UP CLOSER TO AN INCH BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN...THE
LOWEST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS DRIER AND WILL NOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE BRIEF AND
LIMITED MORE ABOVE 5K FT. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE LOW END POPS BUT
NOT MUCH AT ALL IN TERMS OF QPF.

PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY
FRI AFTN AS WE TAP INTO COLD CANADIAN AIR IN DEEP NW FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRI AND DROP TO BELOW FREEZING FRI NIGHT IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT. AFTER A
COLD START SAT MORNING...TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 40S MOST
PLACES. THE BEST CAA WILL SHUT OFF BY SAT NIGHT BUT MORE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING MOST
PLACES SAT NIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING COLD FRONT EAST
AS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PCP
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
BY MON AFTN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AND COLD AIR FOR MID
WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START WILL WARM CLOSER TO 60 BY MONDAY
IN RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE S-SW. 850 TEMPS DOWN NEAR 0C ON SATURDAY
WILL REBOUND UP CLOSE TO 11C BY MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE
WILL COME IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS INITIALLY...THE COLUMN WILL
BECOME SATURATED SUN NIGHT WITH GREATEST CHC OF PCP AT THAT TIME.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE IN DECENT WAA KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S MOST
PLACES SUN NIGHT. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUES.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEG EARLY THIS
MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S
DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY CLOUDS SCATTERED. OTHERWISE LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10
KT...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 16-20 KT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE N WILL
BRING A PROGRESSIVELY SLACK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGH
WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DRY/CHILLY SURGE...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT...FROM THE N. SEAS WILL ALSO BE
HIGHEST THIS MORNING...3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING TO
10 TO 15 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION VERY
SLOWLY VEERS TO NNE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON
AND 2 FT OR LESS BY THU MORNING.


SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURS NIGHT. RETURN FLOW LATE THU WILL INCREASE UP TO A
20 KTS OR SO THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY FRI MORNING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND SLOWLY TO THE N-NW
THROUGH FRI NIGHT REMAINING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REACHING CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
OVERNIGHT THURS. SEAS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY IN NW-N FLOW ON BACK END
BUT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OVER THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW SETTLING OVERHEAD ON SAT.
SEAS WILL DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT MOST WATERS BY SAT AFTN INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAPID RISE IN SEAS SUNDAY EVE INTO
SUN NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 280832
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
332 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE N WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY.
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS CONFIRM THE DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MINUS 5 TO MINUS 8 DEG C THIS MORNING.

DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UNDER A QUARTER INCH. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY OVERCOME ANY SHALLOW CUMULUS THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP AROUND 5
KFT. THUS...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY CLOUDS SKIRTING MAINLY THE CAPE FEAR
REGION THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF NEW ENGLAND
LOW PRESSURE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THU.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS
WINDS QUICKLY GO CALM. THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING ACROSS MID AMERICA
MAY BRING SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TOWARD
THU MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST
DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY THURS
EVE. INITIALLY A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AT THE SFC WHILE
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST LEAVING MORE
OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. ENERGY UPSTREAM IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL DRIVE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EAST ON THURS.
THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS AROUND ON THURS BUT AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST FURTHER...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL COME AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK IN W-SW FLOW. PCP
WATER VALUES REACH UP CLOSER TO AN INCH BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN...THE
LOWEST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS DRIER AND WILL NOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE BRIEF AND
LIMITED MORE ABOVE 5K FT. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE LOW END POPS BUT
NOT MUCH AT ALL IN TERMS OF QPF.

PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY
FRI AFTN AS WE TAP INTO COLD CANADIAN AIR IN DEEP NW FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRI AND DROP TO BELOW FREEZING FRI NIGHT IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT. AFTER A
COLD START SAT MORNING...TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 40S MOST
PLACES. THE BEST CAA WILL SHUT OFF BY SAT NIGHT BUT MORE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING MOST
PLACES SAT NIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING COLD FRONT EAST
AS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PCP
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
BY MON AFTN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AND COLD AIR FOR MID
WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START WILL WARM CLOSER TO 60 BY MONDAY
IN RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE S-SW. 850 TEMPS DOWN NEAR 0C ON SATURDAY
WILL REBOUND UP CLOSE TO 11C BY MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE
WILL COME IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS INITIALLY...THE COLUMN WILL
BECOME SATURATED SUN NIGHT WITH GREATEST CHC OF PCP AT THAT TIME.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE IN DECENT WAA KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S MOST
PLACES SUN NIGHT. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUES.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEG EARLY THIS
MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S
DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY CLOUDS SCATTERED. OTHERWISE LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10
KT...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 16-20 KT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE N WILL
BRING A PROGRESSIVELY SLACK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGH
WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DRY/CHILLY SURGE...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT...FROM THE N. SEAS WILL ALSO BE
HIGHEST THIS MORNING...3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING TO
10 TO 15 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION VERY
SLOWLY VEERS TO NNE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON
AND 2 FT OR LESS BY THU MORNING.


SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURS NIGHT. RETURN FLOW LATE THU WILL INCREASE UP TO A
20 KTS OR SO THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY FRI MORNING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND SLOWLY TO THE N-NW
THROUGH FRI NIGHT REMAINING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REACHING CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
OVERNIGHT THURS. SEAS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY IN NW-N FLOW ON BACK END
BUT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OVER THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW SETTLING OVERHEAD ON SAT.
SEAS WILL DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT MOST WATERS BY SAT AFTN INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAPID RISE IN SEAS SUNDAY EVE INTO
SUN NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 280524
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1225 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOMENT OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS BUT A FEW CLOUDS ARE ON THEIR WAY AS A VORT MAX DESCENDS
UPON US FROM THE NW. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND FREEZING
MANY LOCATIONS...BUT AN UPTICK IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT
MAX WILL KICK TEMPS BACK UP A TAD AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE 20S IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK...PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

LAST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY LEFT THE CAPE FEAR REGION AND
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW PLUNGING WITH THE SUNSET AS A RESULT. IN
FACT...THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOW FOUND
IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION IN THE UPPER 30S. HAVE MADE ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED DATABASE BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST HAVE RESULTED. STILL LOOKING FOR A CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE DRY AIR FINALLY SWOOPS IN AND
WINS THE BATTLE. THERE`S QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN KINGSTREE (SOUTH OF FLORENCE) TO 40 ON
THE BEACHES EAST OF WILMINGTON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING IN THE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN.

A DEEP AND VERY COLD TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OHIO WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
ONE FINAL REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
AT 850 MB THE RENEWED SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER
06Z/1 AM WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -5C TO -7C BY
DAYBREAK. ONCE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES
FOR SOME SOME THIN STRATOCUMULUS AT THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE ON THE
HIGH END OF THE MOS GUIDANCE RANGE...26 ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO
27-30 ALONG THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WED AS
5H TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE KEEPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER 0.20 INCH. SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL WED BUT DESPITE THIS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FACE OF STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WED EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO COLD ADVECTION AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. CALM WINDS AND DEEP DRY AIR SHOULD HELP
MAXIMIZE COOLING WED NIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE SHOWING UP IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB. THIS
LAYER WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY CLOUD BUT COULD LIMIT EFFECTIVENESS OF
THE COOLING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. EITHER WAY LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 20S.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST THU UNDER WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S BUT MOST AREAS WILL ULTIMATELY END UP SHORT OF CLIMO.
SKIES START OFF CLEAR BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE CREATES A CIRRUS DECK LATE IN THE DAY. DURATION OF SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THU AFTERNOON LIMITS MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THINK SOME SHOWERS COLD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THERE
ARE LIMITING FACTORS. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DEEP AND
THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN DRY. SO EVEN IF PRECIP WERE TO DEVELOP HAVE
A HARD TIME BELIEVING MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. COLD AIR DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING LOWS NEAR
CLIMO FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A DYNAMIC AND CHANGEABLE PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHERE INITIALLY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY SLIPS OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES REPLACED BY A SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY BRINGING A VERY
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE THIS TRANSLATES TO EXITING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THE
COAST EARLY FRIDAY...AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPARISON OF THE GFS/ECMWF SURFACE FIELDS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A
HEALTHY GULF MOISTURE TAP WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...BRINGING SOAKING
RAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

WPC GUIDANCE AND OTHER NUMERICAL DEPICTIONS SUGGEST 0.75-1.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL STORM TOTAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AS THE GULF MOISTURE IF LIFTED AHEAD OF ENERGETIC TROUGH AND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY CLOUDS SCATTERED. OTHERWISE LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10
KT...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 16-20 KT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS IN THE 3
TO 4 FT RANGE WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. STILL EXPECTING A
COLD SURGE OVERNIGHT TO KICK UP WINDS AND SEAS INTO SCEC RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN ARE DRIVING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM SHORE. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FEET
NEAR 20 MILES OFFSHORE SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
"SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL REMAIN ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 20 KT TO START THE
PERIOD WILL DECREASE WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD ADVECTION
SHUTS OFF. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE COAST WED NIGHT WITH
WINDS VEERING TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OFFSHORE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU. SURFACE HIGH IS
QUICK TO DEPART EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE DAY THU
THEN INCREASING TO A SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS AS PERIOD ENDS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FRI MORNING. COLD AIR TRAILS THE FRONT WITH
WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT SIMILAR...20 KT OR SO.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY MAY NEED A CAUTION STATEMENT FOR 20
KT NNW WINDS AND 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL VASTLY
IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD.
MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MODERATELY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FOR BLUSTERY S WINDS AND AGITATED SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/RJD






000
FXUS62 KILM 280524
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1225 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOMENT OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS BUT A FEW CLOUDS ARE ON THEIR WAY AS A VORT MAX DESCENDS
UPON US FROM THE NW. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND FREEZING
MANY LOCATIONS...BUT AN UPTICK IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT
MAX WILL KICK TEMPS BACK UP A TAD AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE 20S IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK...PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

LAST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY LEFT THE CAPE FEAR REGION AND
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW PLUNGING WITH THE SUNSET AS A RESULT. IN
FACT...THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOW FOUND
IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION IN THE UPPER 30S. HAVE MADE ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED DATABASE BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST HAVE RESULTED. STILL LOOKING FOR A CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE DRY AIR FINALLY SWOOPS IN AND
WINS THE BATTLE. THERE`S QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN KINGSTREE (SOUTH OF FLORENCE) TO 40 ON
THE BEACHES EAST OF WILMINGTON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING IN THE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN.

A DEEP AND VERY COLD TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OHIO WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
ONE FINAL REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
AT 850 MB THE RENEWED SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER
06Z/1 AM WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -5C TO -7C BY
DAYBREAK. ONCE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES
FOR SOME SOME THIN STRATOCUMULUS AT THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE ON THE
HIGH END OF THE MOS GUIDANCE RANGE...26 ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO
27-30 ALONG THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WED AS
5H TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE KEEPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER 0.20 INCH. SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL WED BUT DESPITE THIS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FACE OF STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WED EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO COLD ADVECTION AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. CALM WINDS AND DEEP DRY AIR SHOULD HELP
MAXIMIZE COOLING WED NIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE SHOWING UP IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB. THIS
LAYER WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY CLOUD BUT COULD LIMIT EFFECTIVENESS OF
THE COOLING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. EITHER WAY LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 20S.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST THU UNDER WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S BUT MOST AREAS WILL ULTIMATELY END UP SHORT OF CLIMO.
SKIES START OFF CLEAR BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE CREATES A CIRRUS DECK LATE IN THE DAY. DURATION OF SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THU AFTERNOON LIMITS MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THINK SOME SHOWERS COLD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THERE
ARE LIMITING FACTORS. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DEEP AND
THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN DRY. SO EVEN IF PRECIP WERE TO DEVELOP HAVE
A HARD TIME BELIEVING MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. COLD AIR DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING LOWS NEAR
CLIMO FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A DYNAMIC AND CHANGEABLE PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHERE INITIALLY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY SLIPS OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES REPLACED BY A SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY BRINGING A VERY
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE THIS TRANSLATES TO EXITING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THE
COAST EARLY FRIDAY...AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPARISON OF THE GFS/ECMWF SURFACE FIELDS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A
HEALTHY GULF MOISTURE TAP WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...BRINGING SOAKING
RAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

WPC GUIDANCE AND OTHER NUMERICAL DEPICTIONS SUGGEST 0.75-1.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL STORM TOTAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AS THE GULF MOISTURE IF LIFTED AHEAD OF ENERGETIC TROUGH AND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY CLOUDS SCATTERED. OTHERWISE LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10
KT...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 16-20 KT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS IN THE 3
TO 4 FT RANGE WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. STILL EXPECTING A
COLD SURGE OVERNIGHT TO KICK UP WINDS AND SEAS INTO SCEC RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN ARE DRIVING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM SHORE. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FEET
NEAR 20 MILES OFFSHORE SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
"SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL REMAIN ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 20 KT TO START THE
PERIOD WILL DECREASE WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD ADVECTION
SHUTS OFF. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE COAST WED NIGHT WITH
WINDS VEERING TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OFFSHORE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU. SURFACE HIGH IS
QUICK TO DEPART EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE DAY THU
THEN INCREASING TO A SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS AS PERIOD ENDS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FRI MORNING. COLD AIR TRAILS THE FRONT WITH
WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT SIMILAR...20 KT OR SO.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY MAY NEED A CAUTION STATEMENT FOR 20
KT NNW WINDS AND 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL VASTLY
IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD.
MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MODERATELY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FOR BLUSTERY S WINDS AND AGITATED SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/RJD







000
FXUS62 KILM 280238
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
938 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOMENT OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS BUT A FEW CLOUDS ARE ON THEIR WAY AS A VORT MAX DESCENDS
UPON US FROM THE NW. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND FREEZING
MANY LOCATIONS...BUT AN UPTICK IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT
MAX WILL KICK TEMPS BACK UP A TAD AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE 20S IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK...PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

LAST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY LEFT THE CAPE FEAR REGION AND
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW PLUNGING WITH THE SUNSET AS A RESULT. IN
FACT...THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOW FOUND
IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION IN THE UPPER 30S. HAVE MADE ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED DATABASE BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST HAVE RESULTED. STILL LOOKING FOR A CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE DRY AIR FINALLY SWOOPS IN AND
WINS THE BATTLE. THERE`S QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN KINGSTREE (SOUTH OF FLORENCE) TO 40 ON
THE BEACHES EAST OF WILMINGTON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING IN THE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN.

A DEEP AND VERY COLD TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OHIO WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
ONE FINAL REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
AT 850 MB THE RENEWED SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER
06Z/1 AM WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -5C TO -7C BY
DAYBREAK. ONCE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES
FOR SOME SOME THIN STRATOCUMULUS AT THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE ON THE
HIGH END OF THE MOS GUIDANCE RANGE...26 ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO
27-30 ALONG THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WED AS 5H
TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE KEEPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER 0.20 INCH. SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL WED BUT DESPITE THIS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FACE OF STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WED EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO COLD ADVECTION AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. CALM WINDS AND DEEP DRY AIR SHOULD HELP
MAXIMIZE COOLING WED NIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE SHOWING UP IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB. THIS
LAYER WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY CLOUD BUT COULD LIMIT EFFECTIVENESS OF
THE COOLING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. EITHER WAY LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 20S.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST THU UNDER WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S BUT MOST AREAS WILL ULTIMATELY END UP SHORT OF CLIMO.
SKIES START OFF CLEAR BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE CREATES A CIRRUS DECK LATE IN THE DAY. DURATION OF SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THU AFTERNOON LIMITS MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THINK SOME SHOWERS COLD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THERE
ARE LIMITING FACTORS. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DEEP AND
THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN DRY. SO EVEN IF PRECIP WERE TO DEVELOP HAVE
A HARD TIME BELIEVING MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. COLD AIR DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING LOWS NEAR
CLIMO FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A DYNAMIC AND CHANGEABLE PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHERE INITIALLY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY SLIPS OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES REPLACED BY A SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY BRINGING A VERY
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE THIS TRANSLATES TO EXITING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THE
COAST EARLY FRIDAY...AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPARISON OF THE GFS/ECMWF SURFACE FIELDS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A
HEALTHY GULF MOISTURE TAP WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...BRINGING SOAKING
RAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

WPC GUIDANCE AND OTHER NUMERICAL DEPICTIONS SUGGEST 0.75-1.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL STORM TOTAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AS THE GULF MOISTURE IF LIFTED AHEAD OF ENERGETIC TROUGH AND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A FEW TO
SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS AN IMPULSE PASSES.
AFTER SUNRISE...SUNNY SKIES WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 16-20 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS IN THE 3
TO 4 FT RANGE WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. STILL EXPECTING A
COLD SURGE OVERNIGHT TO KICK UP WINDS AND SEAS INTO SCEC RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN ARE DRIVING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM SHORE. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FEET
NEAR 20 MILES OFFSHORE SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
"SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL REMAIN ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 20 KT TO START THE PERIOD
WILL DECREASE WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD ADVECTION SHUTS OFF.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE COAST WED NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING
TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU. SURFACE HIGH IS QUICK TO DEPART
EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE DAY THU THEN INCREASING
TO A SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS AS PERIOD ENDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS FRI MORNING. COLD AIR TRAILS THE FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT SIMILAR...20 KT OR SO. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY MAY NEED A CAUTION STATEMENT FOR 20
KT NNW WINDS AND 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL VASTLY
IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD.
MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MODERATELY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FOR BLUSTERY S WINDS AND AGITATED SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/III






000
FXUS62 KILM 280238
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
938 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOMENT OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS BUT A FEW CLOUDS ARE ON THEIR WAY AS A VORT MAX DESCENDS
UPON US FROM THE NW. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND FREEZING
MANY LOCATIONS...BUT AN UPTICK IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT
MAX WILL KICK TEMPS BACK UP A TAD AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE 20S IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK...PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

LAST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY LEFT THE CAPE FEAR REGION AND
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW PLUNGING WITH THE SUNSET AS A RESULT. IN
FACT...THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOW FOUND
IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION IN THE UPPER 30S. HAVE MADE ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED DATABASE BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST HAVE RESULTED. STILL LOOKING FOR A CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE DRY AIR FINALLY SWOOPS IN AND
WINS THE BATTLE. THERE`S QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN KINGSTREE (SOUTH OF FLORENCE) TO 40 ON
THE BEACHES EAST OF WILMINGTON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING IN THE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN.

A DEEP AND VERY COLD TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OHIO WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
ONE FINAL REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
AT 850 MB THE RENEWED SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER
06Z/1 AM WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -5C TO -7C BY
DAYBREAK. ONCE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES
FOR SOME SOME THIN STRATOCUMULUS AT THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE ON THE
HIGH END OF THE MOS GUIDANCE RANGE...26 ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO
27-30 ALONG THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WED AS 5H
TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE KEEPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER 0.20 INCH. SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL WED BUT DESPITE THIS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FACE OF STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WED EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO COLD ADVECTION AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. CALM WINDS AND DEEP DRY AIR SHOULD HELP
MAXIMIZE COOLING WED NIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE SHOWING UP IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB. THIS
LAYER WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY CLOUD BUT COULD LIMIT EFFECTIVENESS OF
THE COOLING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. EITHER WAY LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 20S.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST THU UNDER WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S BUT MOST AREAS WILL ULTIMATELY END UP SHORT OF CLIMO.
SKIES START OFF CLEAR BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE CREATES A CIRRUS DECK LATE IN THE DAY. DURATION OF SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THU AFTERNOON LIMITS MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THINK SOME SHOWERS COLD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THERE
ARE LIMITING FACTORS. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DEEP AND
THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN DRY. SO EVEN IF PRECIP WERE TO DEVELOP HAVE
A HARD TIME BELIEVING MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. COLD AIR DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING LOWS NEAR
CLIMO FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A DYNAMIC AND CHANGEABLE PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHERE INITIALLY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY SLIPS OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES REPLACED BY A SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY BRINGING A VERY
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE THIS TRANSLATES TO EXITING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THE
COAST EARLY FRIDAY...AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPARISON OF THE GFS/ECMWF SURFACE FIELDS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A
HEALTHY GULF MOISTURE TAP WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...BRINGING SOAKING
RAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

WPC GUIDANCE AND OTHER NUMERICAL DEPICTIONS SUGGEST 0.75-1.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL STORM TOTAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AS THE GULF MOISTURE IF LIFTED AHEAD OF ENERGETIC TROUGH AND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A FEW TO
SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS AN IMPULSE PASSES.
AFTER SUNRISE...SUNNY SKIES WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 16-20 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS IN THE 3
TO 4 FT RANGE WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. STILL EXPECTING A
COLD SURGE OVERNIGHT TO KICK UP WINDS AND SEAS INTO SCEC RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN ARE DRIVING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM SHORE. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FEET
NEAR 20 MILES OFFSHORE SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
"SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL REMAIN ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 20 KT TO START THE PERIOD
WILL DECREASE WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD ADVECTION SHUTS OFF.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE COAST WED NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING
TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU. SURFACE HIGH IS QUICK TO DEPART
EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE DAY THU THEN INCREASING
TO A SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS AS PERIOD ENDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS FRI MORNING. COLD AIR TRAILS THE FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT SIMILAR...20 KT OR SO. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY MAY NEED A CAUTION STATEMENT FOR 20
KT NNW WINDS AND 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL VASTLY
IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD.
MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MODERATELY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FOR BLUSTERY S WINDS AND AGITATED SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/III





000
FXUS62 KILM 280238
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
938 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOMENT OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS BUT A FEW CLOUDS ARE ON THEIR WAY AS A VORT MAX DESCENDS
UPON US FROM THE NW. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND FREEZING
MANY LOCATIONS...BUT AN UPTICK IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT
MAX WILL KICK TEMPS BACK UP A TAD AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE 20S IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK...PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

LAST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY LEFT THE CAPE FEAR REGION AND
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW PLUNGING WITH THE SUNSET AS A RESULT. IN
FACT...THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOW FOUND
IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION IN THE UPPER 30S. HAVE MADE ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED DATABASE BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST HAVE RESULTED. STILL LOOKING FOR A CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE DRY AIR FINALLY SWOOPS IN AND
WINS THE BATTLE. THERE`S QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN KINGSTREE (SOUTH OF FLORENCE) TO 40 ON
THE BEACHES EAST OF WILMINGTON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING IN THE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN.

A DEEP AND VERY COLD TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OHIO WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
ONE FINAL REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
AT 850 MB THE RENEWED SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER
06Z/1 AM WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -5C TO -7C BY
DAYBREAK. ONCE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES
FOR SOME SOME THIN STRATOCUMULUS AT THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE ON THE
HIGH END OF THE MOS GUIDANCE RANGE...26 ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO
27-30 ALONG THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WED AS 5H
TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE KEEPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER 0.20 INCH. SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL WED BUT DESPITE THIS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FACE OF STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WED EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO COLD ADVECTION AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. CALM WINDS AND DEEP DRY AIR SHOULD HELP
MAXIMIZE COOLING WED NIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE SHOWING UP IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB. THIS
LAYER WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY CLOUD BUT COULD LIMIT EFFECTIVENESS OF
THE COOLING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. EITHER WAY LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 20S.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST THU UNDER WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S BUT MOST AREAS WILL ULTIMATELY END UP SHORT OF CLIMO.
SKIES START OFF CLEAR BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE CREATES A CIRRUS DECK LATE IN THE DAY. DURATION OF SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THU AFTERNOON LIMITS MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THINK SOME SHOWERS COLD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THERE
ARE LIMITING FACTORS. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DEEP AND
THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN DRY. SO EVEN IF PRECIP WERE TO DEVELOP HAVE
A HARD TIME BELIEVING MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. COLD AIR DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING LOWS NEAR
CLIMO FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A DYNAMIC AND CHANGEABLE PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHERE INITIALLY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY SLIPS OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES REPLACED BY A SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY BRINGING A VERY
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE THIS TRANSLATES TO EXITING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THE
COAST EARLY FRIDAY...AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPARISON OF THE GFS/ECMWF SURFACE FIELDS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A
HEALTHY GULF MOISTURE TAP WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...BRINGING SOAKING
RAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

WPC GUIDANCE AND OTHER NUMERICAL DEPICTIONS SUGGEST 0.75-1.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL STORM TOTAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AS THE GULF MOISTURE IF LIFTED AHEAD OF ENERGETIC TROUGH AND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A FEW TO
SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS AN IMPULSE PASSES.
AFTER SUNRISE...SUNNY SKIES WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 16-20 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS IN THE 3
TO 4 FT RANGE WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. STILL EXPECTING A
COLD SURGE OVERNIGHT TO KICK UP WINDS AND SEAS INTO SCEC RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN ARE DRIVING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM SHORE. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FEET
NEAR 20 MILES OFFSHORE SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
"SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL REMAIN ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 20 KT TO START THE PERIOD
WILL DECREASE WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD ADVECTION SHUTS OFF.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE COAST WED NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING
TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU. SURFACE HIGH IS QUICK TO DEPART
EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE DAY THU THEN INCREASING
TO A SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS AS PERIOD ENDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS FRI MORNING. COLD AIR TRAILS THE FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT SIMILAR...20 KT OR SO. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY MAY NEED A CAUTION STATEMENT FOR 20
KT NNW WINDS AND 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL VASTLY
IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD.
MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MODERATELY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FOR BLUSTERY S WINDS AND AGITATED SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/III





000
FXUS62 KILM 280238
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
938 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOMENT OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS BUT A FEW CLOUDS ARE ON THEIR WAY AS A VORT MAX DESCENDS
UPON US FROM THE NW. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND FREEZING
MANY LOCATIONS...BUT AN UPTICK IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT
MAX WILL KICK TEMPS BACK UP A TAD AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE 20S IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK...PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

LAST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY LEFT THE CAPE FEAR REGION AND
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW PLUNGING WITH THE SUNSET AS A RESULT. IN
FACT...THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOW FOUND
IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION IN THE UPPER 30S. HAVE MADE ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED DATABASE BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST HAVE RESULTED. STILL LOOKING FOR A CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE DRY AIR FINALLY SWOOPS IN AND
WINS THE BATTLE. THERE`S QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN KINGSTREE (SOUTH OF FLORENCE) TO 40 ON
THE BEACHES EAST OF WILMINGTON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING IN THE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN.

A DEEP AND VERY COLD TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OHIO WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
ONE FINAL REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
AT 850 MB THE RENEWED SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER
06Z/1 AM WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -5C TO -7C BY
DAYBREAK. ONCE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES
FOR SOME SOME THIN STRATOCUMULUS AT THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE ON THE
HIGH END OF THE MOS GUIDANCE RANGE...26 ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO
27-30 ALONG THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WED AS 5H
TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE KEEPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER 0.20 INCH. SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL WED BUT DESPITE THIS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FACE OF STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WED EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO COLD ADVECTION AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. CALM WINDS AND DEEP DRY AIR SHOULD HELP
MAXIMIZE COOLING WED NIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE SHOWING UP IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB. THIS
LAYER WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY CLOUD BUT COULD LIMIT EFFECTIVENESS OF
THE COOLING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. EITHER WAY LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 20S.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST THU UNDER WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S BUT MOST AREAS WILL ULTIMATELY END UP SHORT OF CLIMO.
SKIES START OFF CLEAR BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE CREATES A CIRRUS DECK LATE IN THE DAY. DURATION OF SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THU AFTERNOON LIMITS MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THINK SOME SHOWERS COLD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THERE
ARE LIMITING FACTORS. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DEEP AND
THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN DRY. SO EVEN IF PRECIP WERE TO DEVELOP HAVE
A HARD TIME BELIEVING MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. COLD AIR DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING LOWS NEAR
CLIMO FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A DYNAMIC AND CHANGEABLE PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHERE INITIALLY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY SLIPS OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES REPLACED BY A SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY BRINGING A VERY
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE THIS TRANSLATES TO EXITING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THE
COAST EARLY FRIDAY...AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPARISON OF THE GFS/ECMWF SURFACE FIELDS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A
HEALTHY GULF MOISTURE TAP WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...BRINGING SOAKING
RAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

WPC GUIDANCE AND OTHER NUMERICAL DEPICTIONS SUGGEST 0.75-1.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL STORM TOTAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AS THE GULF MOISTURE IF LIFTED AHEAD OF ENERGETIC TROUGH AND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A FEW TO
SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS AN IMPULSE PASSES.
AFTER SUNRISE...SUNNY SKIES WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 16-20 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS IN THE 3
TO 4 FT RANGE WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. STILL EXPECTING A
COLD SURGE OVERNIGHT TO KICK UP WINDS AND SEAS INTO SCEC RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN ARE DRIVING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM SHORE. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FEET
NEAR 20 MILES OFFSHORE SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
"SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL REMAIN ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 20 KT TO START THE PERIOD
WILL DECREASE WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD ADVECTION SHUTS OFF.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE COAST WED NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING
TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU. SURFACE HIGH IS QUICK TO DEPART
EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE DAY THU THEN INCREASING
TO A SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS AS PERIOD ENDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS FRI MORNING. COLD AIR TRAILS THE FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT SIMILAR...20 KT OR SO. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY MAY NEED A CAUTION STATEMENT FOR 20
KT NNW WINDS AND 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL VASTLY
IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD.
MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MODERATELY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FOR BLUSTERY S WINDS AND AGITATED SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/III






000
FXUS62 KILM 272333
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
633 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM TUESDAY...LAST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY LEFT THE
CAPE FEAR REGION AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOW PLUNGING WITH THE SUNSET
AS A RESULT. IN FACT...THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST
AREA ARE NOW FOUND IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION IN THE UPPER 30S. HAVE
MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED DATABASE BUT NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE RESULTED. STILL LOOKING
FOR A CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE DRY AIR FINALLY SWOOPS IN AND
WINS THE BATTLE. THERE`S QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN KINGSTREE (SOUTH OF FLORENCE) TO 40 ON
THE BEACHES EAST OF WILMINGTON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING IN THE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN.

A DEEP AND VERY COLD TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OHIO WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
ONE FINAL REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
AT 850 MB THE RENEWED SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER
06Z/1 AM WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -5C TO -7C BY
DAYBREAK. ONCE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES
FOR SOME SOME THIN STRATOCUMULUS AT THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE ON THE
HIGH END OF THE MOS GUIDANCE RANGE...26 ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO
27-30 ALONG THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WED AS 5H
TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE KEEPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER 0.20 INCH. SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL WED BUT DESPITE THIS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FACE OF STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WED EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO COLD ADVECTION AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. CALM WINDS AND DEEP DRY AIR SHOULD HELP
MAXIMIZE COOLING WED NIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE SHOWING UP IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB. THIS
LAYER WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY CLOUD BUT COULD LIMIT EFFECTIVENESS OF
THE COOLING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. EITHER WAY LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 20S.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST THU UNDER WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S BUT MOST AREAS WILL ULTIMATELY END UP SHORT OF CLIMO.
SKIES START OFF CLEAR BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE CREATES A CIRRUS DECK LATE IN THE DAY. DURATION OF SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THU AFTERNOON LIMITS MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THINK SOME SHOWERS COLD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THERE
ARE LIMITING FACTORS. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DEEP AND
THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN DRY. SO EVEN IF PRECIP WERE TO DEVELOP HAVE
A HARD TIME BELIEVING MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. COLD AIR DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING LOWS NEAR
CLIMO FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A DYNAMIC AND CHANGEABLE PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHERE INITIALLY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY SLIPS OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES REPLACED BY A SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY BRINGING A VERY
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE THIS TRANSLATES TO EXITING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THE
COAST EARLY FRIDAY...AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPARISON OF THE GFS/ECMWF SURFACE FIELDS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A
HEALTHY GULF MOISTURE TAP WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...BRINGING SOAKING
RAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

WPC GUIDANCE AND OTHER NUMERICAL DEPICTIONS SUGGEST 0.75-1.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL STORM TOTAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AS THE GULF MOISTURE IF LIFTED AHEAD OF ENERGETIC TROUGH AND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A FEW TO
SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS AN IMPULSE PASSES.
AFTER SUNRISE...SUNNY SKIES WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 16-20 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE
WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. STILL EXPECTING A COLD SURGE
OVERNIGHT TO KICK UP WINDS AND SEAS INTO SCEC RANGE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN ARE DRIVING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM SHORE. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FEET
NEAR 20 MILES OFFSHORE SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
"SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL REMAIN ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 20 KT TO START THE PERIOD
WILL DECREASE WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD ADVECTION SHUTS OFF.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE COAST WED NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING
TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU. SURFACE HIGH IS QUICK TO DEPART
EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE DAY THU THEN INCREASING
TO A SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS AS PERIOD ENDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS FRI MORNING. COLD AIR TRAILS THE FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT SIMILAR...20 KT OR SO. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY MAY NEED A CAUTION STATEMENT FOR 20
KT NNW WINDS AND 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL VASTLY
IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD.
MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MODERATELY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FOR BLUSTERY S WINDS AND AGITATED SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...TRA






000
FXUS62 KILM 272000
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE DRY AIR FINALLY
SWOOPS IN AND WINS THE BATTLE. THERE`S QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN KINGSTREE (SOUTH OF
FLORENCE) TO 40 ON THE BEACHES EAST OF WILMINGTON. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN THE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN.

A DEEP AND VERY COLD TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OHIO WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
ONE FINAL REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
AT 850 MB THE RENEWED SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER
06Z/1 AM WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -5C TO -7C BY
DAYBREAK. ONCE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES
FOR SOME SOME THIN STRATOCUMULUS AT THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE ON THE
HIGH END OF THE MOS GUIDANCE RANGE...26 ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO
27-30 ALONG THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WED AS 5H
TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE KEEPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER 0.20 INCH. SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL WED BUT DESPITE THIS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FACE OF STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WED EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO COLD ADVECTION AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. CALM WINDS AND DEEP DRY AIR SHOULD HELP
MAXIMIZE COOLING WED NIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE SHOWING UP IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB. THIS
LAYER WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY CLOUD BUT COULD LIMIT EFFECTIVENESS OF
THE COOLING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. EITHER WAY LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 20S.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST THU UNDER WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S BUT MOST AREAS WILL ULTIMATELY END UP SHORT OF CLIMO.
SKIES START OFF CLEAR BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE CREATES A CIRRUS DECK LATE IN THE DAY. DURATION OF SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THU AFTERNOON LIMITS MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THINK SOME SHOWERS COLD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THERE
ARE LIMITING FACTORS. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DEEP AND
THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN DRY. SO EVEN IF PRECIP WERE TO DEVELOP HAVE
A HARD TIME BELIEVING MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. COLD AIR DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING LOWS NEAR
CLIMO FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A DYNAMIC AND CHANGEABLE PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHERE INITIALLY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY SLIPS OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES REPLACED BY A SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY BRINGING A VERY
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE THIS TRANSLATES TO EXITING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THE
COAST EARLY FRIDAY...AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPARISON OF THE GFS/ECMWF SURFACE FIELDS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A
HEALTHY GULF MOISTURE TAP WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...BRINGING SOAKING
RAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

WPC GUIDANCE AND OTHER NUMERICAL DEPICTIONS SUGGEST 0.75-1.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL STORM TOTAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AS THE GULF MOISTURE IF LIFTED AHEAD OF ENERGETIC TROUGH AND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PULL
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY MID CLOUD. ILM AND LBT COULD SEE A LINGERING MVFR CEILING FOR
THE FIRST HOUR OR SO. WINDS DIMINISH FOR DIURNAL REASONS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG FORMATION. WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES
WITH WITH A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN ARE DRIVING NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH A
REINFORCING SURGE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET
NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FEET NEAR 20 MILES OFFSHORE SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A "SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE
WILL REMAIN ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 20 KT TO START THE PERIOD
WILL DECREASE WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD ADVECTION SHUTS OFF.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE COAST WED NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING
TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU. SURFACE HIGH IS QUICK TO DEPART
EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE DAY THU THEN INCREASING
TO A SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS AS PERIOD ENDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS FRI MORNING. COLD AIR TRAILS THE FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT SIMILAR...20 KT OR SO. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY MAY NEED A CAUTION STATEMENT FOR 20
KT NNW WINDS AND 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL VASTLY
IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD.
MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MODERATELY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FOR BLUSTERY S WINDS AND AGITATED SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...8
AVIATION...43







000
FXUS62 KILM 271732
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1232 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SHOULD START FLOWING BACK INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE
CAPE FEAR AREA...WITH THE BACK EDGE PERHAPS ACTUALLY DRIFTING
WESTWARD ACROSS ELIZABETHTOWN AND WHITEVILLE RATHER THAN ERODING
EASTWARD. EVERY MODEL SHOWS 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIMINISHING
BETWEEN NOW AND 22Z WITH WIDENING SURFACE T-TD SPREADS...IMPLYING
CLEARING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEWLY UPDATED FORECAST WILL
SHOW THIS TREND...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER THAN MY MORNING UPDATE
SHOWED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 40S INLAND WITH
43-44 NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ALONG THE COAST...8-14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...FINAL MID LEVEL IMPULSE ALREADY JUST OFFSHORE
BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WHILE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A CHILLY DAY WITH A BIT OF A
BREEZE TO START BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO
THE EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SKY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE
SENSE OF LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REMAINS COLD THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKLY REVERSING IN THE BACKING WIND
FIELD JUST OFF THE SURFACE. DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S WILL
QUICKLY FALL WITH SUNSET DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE 30S AND SETTLE INTO MID 20S FOR LOWS CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.
THIS IS COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
APPEAR BETTER IF NOT OPTIMIZED. PROGRESSION OF HIGH OFF THE COAST
PAIRED WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COOL FRONT SHOULD BOOST THURSDAY
TEMPS TO JUST SHY OF CLIMO AND CLOUDS MAY INCREASE SLOWLY. SURFACE
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRAILS CONSIDERABLY. THE DISCONNECTION BETWEEN THE TWO
PROBABLY PRECLUDES MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL ADVECTION ON FRIDAY MAY BE DELAYED A BIT
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH BY EVENING OR
THEREAFTER. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER MOS HIGHS TOO HIGH OR THAT TEMPS
MAY BEGIN FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE INHERITED
HIGHS JUST SHY OF CLIMO. CHILLY AIRMASS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY`S
SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY STILL COOL BUT WITH OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN
SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE WRUNG
OUT BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME
MORE CHILLY BUT NOT ARTIC AIR. MEANWHILE INTERESTING SOUTHERN BRANCH
FEATURE HANGING BACK JUST WEST OF TEXAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PULL
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY MID CLOUD. ILM AND LBT COULD SEE A LINGERING MVFR CEILING FOR
THE FIRST HOUR OR SO. WINDS DIMINISH FOR DIURNAL REASONS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG FORMATION. WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES
WITH WITH A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 20 KT...A LITTLE
STRONGER NEAR CAPE FEAR AND A LITTLE WEAKER ALONG THE SC COAST. SEA
HEIGHTS ARE ARE NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM LATE THIS MORNING. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WAS TO DROP THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND REPLACE IT
WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE VALID THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT
UPDATE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO DO THE SAME FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY BRINGS AN INITIALLY MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL GRADUALLY EASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. EVEN WITH THE EARLY DAY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS NO FLAGS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING THE LARGEST SEAS REMOVED
FROM THE COASTLINE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF
THE COAST LATE THURSDAY A FURTHER DECREASE IN WIND SPEED EXPECTED
WHILE CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN DIRECTION OCCURS. SEAS SETTLE IN
HEIGHT EVEN IF THE PERIOD SHORTENS SLIGHTLY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PICKS UP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL AIR PUSH ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY OR HEADLINES THRESHOLDS WITH NWRLY FLOW
VEERING SLIGHTLY TO NE ON SEERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE HIGH OVER SRN
GREAT LAKES. THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ON SATURDAY LEADING TO ONLY A MINOR ADDITIONAL VEER LOCALLY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43







000
FXUS62 KILM 271732
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1232 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SHOULD START FLOWING BACK INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE
CAPE FEAR AREA...WITH THE BACK EDGE PERHAPS ACTUALLY DRIFTING
WESTWARD ACROSS ELIZABETHTOWN AND WHITEVILLE RATHER THAN ERODING
EASTWARD. EVERY MODEL SHOWS 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIMINISHING
BETWEEN NOW AND 22Z WITH WIDENING SURFACE T-TD SPREADS...IMPLYING
CLEARING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEWLY UPDATED FORECAST WILL
SHOW THIS TREND...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER THAN MY MORNING UPDATE
SHOWED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 40S INLAND WITH
43-44 NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ALONG THE COAST...8-14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...FINAL MID LEVEL IMPULSE ALREADY JUST OFFSHORE
BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WHILE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A CHILLY DAY WITH A BIT OF A
BREEZE TO START BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO
THE EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SKY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE
SENSE OF LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REMAINS COLD THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKLY REVERSING IN THE BACKING WIND
FIELD JUST OFF THE SURFACE. DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S WILL
QUICKLY FALL WITH SUNSET DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE 30S AND SETTLE INTO MID 20S FOR LOWS CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.
THIS IS COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
APPEAR BETTER IF NOT OPTIMIZED. PROGRESSION OF HIGH OFF THE COAST
PAIRED WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COOL FRONT SHOULD BOOST THURSDAY
TEMPS TO JUST SHY OF CLIMO AND CLOUDS MAY INCREASE SLOWLY. SURFACE
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRAILS CONSIDERABLY. THE DISCONNECTION BETWEEN THE TWO
PROBABLY PRECLUDES MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL ADVECTION ON FRIDAY MAY BE DELAYED A BIT
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH BY EVENING OR
THEREAFTER. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER MOS HIGHS TOO HIGH OR THAT TEMPS
MAY BEGIN FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE INHERITED
HIGHS JUST SHY OF CLIMO. CHILLY AIRMASS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY`S
SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY STILL COOL BUT WITH OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN
SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE WRUNG
OUT BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME
MORE CHILLY BUT NOT ARTIC AIR. MEANWHILE INTERESTING SOUTHERN BRANCH
FEATURE HANGING BACK JUST WEST OF TEXAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PULL
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY MID CLOUD. ILM AND LBT COULD SEE A LINGERING MVFR CEILING FOR
THE FIRST HOUR OR SO. WINDS DIMINISH FOR DIURNAL REASONS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG FORMATION. WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES
WITH WITH A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 20 KT...A LITTLE
STRONGER NEAR CAPE FEAR AND A LITTLE WEAKER ALONG THE SC COAST. SEA
HEIGHTS ARE ARE NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM LATE THIS MORNING. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WAS TO DROP THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND REPLACE IT
WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE VALID THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT
UPDATE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO DO THE SAME FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY BRINGS AN INITIALLY MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL GRADUALLY EASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. EVEN WITH THE EARLY DAY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS NO FLAGS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING THE LARGEST SEAS REMOVED
FROM THE COASTLINE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF
THE COAST LATE THURSDAY A FURTHER DECREASE IN WIND SPEED EXPECTED
WHILE CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN DIRECTION OCCURS. SEAS SETTLE IN
HEIGHT EVEN IF THE PERIOD SHORTENS SLIGHTLY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PICKS UP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL AIR PUSH ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY OR HEADLINES THRESHOLDS WITH NWRLY FLOW
VEERING SLIGHTLY TO NE ON SEERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE HIGH OVER SRN
GREAT LAKES. THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ON SATURDAY LEADING TO ONLY A MINOR ADDITIONAL VEER LOCALLY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43






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