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000
FXUS62 KILM 211421
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1021 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...EXITING SHORTWAVE LEAVING BEHIND DEEP SW-W
FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KEEP COLUMN VERY
DRY WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A HALF INCH AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OUT OF THE WEST. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
WARMING THROUGH TODAY COMBINED WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 80S MOST PLACES.

PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT DIGS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL AID IN KEEPING A
VERY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY FOR ANY PCP. A FEW CLOUDS
MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE
FROPA WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. EXPECT DEEP
COOL NNW FLOW BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER. CAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DOWN IN THE
40S INLAND BY DAYBREAK AND CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING IFR AT BOTH KFLO
AND KLBT THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND WAVES AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 211421
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1021 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...EXITING SHORTWAVE LEAVING BEHIND DEEP SW-W
FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KEEP COLUMN VERY
DRY WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A HALF INCH AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OUT OF THE WEST. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
WARMING THROUGH TODAY COMBINED WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 80S MOST PLACES.

PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT DIGS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL AID IN KEEPING A
VERY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY FOR ANY PCP. A FEW CLOUDS
MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE
FROPA WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. EXPECT DEEP
COOL NNW FLOW BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER. CAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DOWN IN THE
40S INLAND BY DAYBREAK AND CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING IFR AT BOTH KFLO
AND KLBT THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND WAVES AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 211140
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
740 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING IFR AT BOTH KFLO
AND KLBT THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 211140
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
740 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING IFR AT BOTH KFLO
AND KLBT THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 211140
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
740 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING IFR AT BOTH KFLO
AND KLBT THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 211140
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
740 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING IFR AT BOTH KFLO
AND KLBT THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 211007
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
607 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 211007
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
607 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/SHK






000
FXUS62 KILM 211007
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
607 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 211007
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
607 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/SHK






000
FXUS62 KILM 210821
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
421 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MOVING NE ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF
CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF
CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS
ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENT DRYING AND
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A
TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION
WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL
GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE
COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED
FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE
RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR
TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT
SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/SHK






000
FXUS62 KILM 210821
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
421 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MOVING NE ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF
CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF
CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS
ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENT DRYING AND
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A
TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION
WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL
GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE
COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED
FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE
RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR
TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT
SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/SHK







000
FXUS62 KILM 210725
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
325 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MOVING NE ALONG THE COAST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION
ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO
THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING
ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING
CLEARING. STRONG WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION
OF DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT
TOO FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF
EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY
FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE FRIDAY MORNING. A
BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR CWA WITH LITTLE IF
ANY CLOUDCOVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS
WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT
APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS
DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET AND
DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF A ZONAL
WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE IS
MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN
THE LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND
SPEEDS TO 15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED
OVERNIGHT SEAS UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE
WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND-
SEAS AND CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE
MILDER OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 210725
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
325 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MOVING NE ALONG THE COAST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION
ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO
THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING
ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING
CLEARING. STRONG WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION
OF DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT
TOO FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF
EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY
FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE FRIDAY MORNING. A
BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR CWA WITH LITTLE IF
ANY CLOUDCOVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS
WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT
APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS
DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET AND
DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF A ZONAL
WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE IS
MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN
THE LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND
SPEEDS TO 15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED
OVERNIGHT SEAS UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE
WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND-
SEAS AND CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE
MILDER OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 210545
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OFFSHORE. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WAS LOCATED WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND ADVANCING EAST AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH
LATE THIS EVE. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAKER SURFACE
REFLECTION WAS CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AND WILL SWING EAST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS
FEATURE IS RATHER POTENT...THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY...ESPECIALLY
BELOW DEVELOPING CLOUD BASES...4 TO 7 KFT. THIS WILL MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. ALTHOUGH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL CAN NOT BE JUSTIFIED...A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OVERNIGHT.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WITH CLEARER SKIES DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
TOWARD/AROUND SUNRISE. WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS WILL
NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG COOLING AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT. WE
ARE FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST AT THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. OVERALL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH TUES WITH AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS TROUGH
DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH ALOFT. EXPECT PCP WATER VALUES TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH TUES. AS VORT MOVES THROUGH THE MAIN H5
TROUGH ON TUES IT WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PCP TUES MORNING IN
CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH JUST OFF SHORE BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THE AFTN. PCP SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST AND WILL LEAVE JUST
SOME CLOUDS TUES MORNING FOR COASTAL LOCALES.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES NIGHT. A DEEP N-NW FLOW OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES SLOWLY AROUND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FINALLY LIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST BY THURS MORNING. DECENT DYNAMICS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WED BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH TO PRODUCE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
NC. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY WED MORNING.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND ON TUES IN WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MOISTER SW TO W
FLOW WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER HALF OF 70S. DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS INTO WED WITH DEEP DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND FRONT WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS BEING KNOCKED BACK DOWN AND MOST TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S FOR WED IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. DRY AIR WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES
WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE WITHOUT THE BEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE PERIOD. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY WHILE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABILITY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MID LEVEL TROUGHING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR
TO BELOW CLIMO. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO. DEEP DRY AIR
AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EACH NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH A WEAKER
REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. S WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW WITH ITS
PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR
LESS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH TUES FROM SW EARLY
TO MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTN AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TUES MORNING MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR TUES NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT W-SW WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS THROUGH TUES AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. ONCE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS TUES NIGHT A SURGE OF N-NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER.

SEAS BELOW 2 FT OR LESS ON TUES WILL KICK UP IN CAA BEHIND FRONT
EARLY WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS.
NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FT IN AS STRONGER OFF
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT THU AND THU NIGHT AS GRADIENT
RELAXES SLIGHTLY. GRADIENT REMAINS STATIC FRI AND SAT AS THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH. FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2
TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43/MJC






000
FXUS62 KILM 210545
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OFFSHORE. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WAS LOCATED WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND ADVANCING EAST AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH
LATE THIS EVE. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAKER SURFACE
REFLECTION WAS CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AND WILL SWING EAST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS
FEATURE IS RATHER POTENT...THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY...ESPECIALLY
BELOW DEVELOPING CLOUD BASES...4 TO 7 KFT. THIS WILL MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. ALTHOUGH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL CAN NOT BE JUSTIFIED...A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OVERNIGHT.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WITH CLEARER SKIES DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
TOWARD/AROUND SUNRISE. WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS WILL
NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG COOLING AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT. WE
ARE FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST AT THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. OVERALL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH TUES WITH AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS TROUGH
DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH ALOFT. EXPECT PCP WATER VALUES TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH TUES. AS VORT MOVES THROUGH THE MAIN H5
TROUGH ON TUES IT WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PCP TUES MORNING IN
CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH JUST OFF SHORE BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THE AFTN. PCP SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST AND WILL LEAVE JUST
SOME CLOUDS TUES MORNING FOR COASTAL LOCALES.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES NIGHT. A DEEP N-NW FLOW OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES SLOWLY AROUND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FINALLY LIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST BY THURS MORNING. DECENT DYNAMICS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WED BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH TO PRODUCE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
NC. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY WED MORNING.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND ON TUES IN WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MOISTER SW TO W
FLOW WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER HALF OF 70S. DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS INTO WED WITH DEEP DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND FRONT WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS BEING KNOCKED BACK DOWN AND MOST TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S FOR WED IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. DRY AIR WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES
WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE WITHOUT THE BEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE PERIOD. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY WHILE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABILITY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MID LEVEL TROUGHING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR
TO BELOW CLIMO. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO. DEEP DRY AIR
AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EACH NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH A WEAKER
REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. S WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW WITH ITS
PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR
LESS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH TUES FROM SW EARLY
TO MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTN AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TUES MORNING MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR TUES NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT W-SW WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS THROUGH TUES AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. ONCE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS TUES NIGHT A SURGE OF N-NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER.

SEAS BELOW 2 FT OR LESS ON TUES WILL KICK UP IN CAA BEHIND FRONT
EARLY WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS.
NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FT IN AS STRONGER OFF
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT THU AND THU NIGHT AS GRADIENT
RELAXES SLIGHTLY. GRADIENT REMAINS STATIC FRI AND SAT AS THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH. FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2
TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43/MJC







000
FXUS62 KILM 210238
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1037 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OFFSHORE. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WAS LOCATED WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND ADVANCING EAST AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH LATE
THIS EVE. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION
WAS CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AND WILL SWING EAST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS FEATURE IS RATHER
POTENT...THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY...ESPECIALLY BELOW DEVELOPING CLOUD
BASES...4 TO 7 KFT. THIS WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. ALTHOUGH MEASURABLE RAINFALL CAN
NOT BE JUSTIFIED...A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
OVERNIGHT.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WITH CLEARER SKIES DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
TOWARD/AROUND SUNRISE. WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS WILL
NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG COOLING AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT. WE
ARE FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST AT THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. OVERALL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH TUES WITH AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS TROUGH
DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH ALOFT. EXPECT PCP WATER VALUES TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH TUES. AS VORT MOVES THROUGH THE MAIN H5
TROUGH ON TUES IT WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PCP TUES MORNING IN
CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH JUST OFF SHORE BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THE AFTN. PCP SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST AND WILL LEAVE JUST
SOME CLOUDS TUES MORNING FOR COASTAL LOCALES.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES NIGHT. A DEEP N-NW FLOW OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES SLOWLY AROUND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FINALLY LIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST BY THURS MORNING. DECENT DYNAMICS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WED BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH TO PRODUCE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
NC. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY WED MORNING.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND ON TUES IN WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MOISTER SW TO W
FLOW WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER HALF OF 70S. DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS INTO WED WITH DEEP DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND FRONT WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS BEING KNOCKED BACK DOWN AND MOST TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S FOR WED IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. DRY AIR WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES
WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE WITHOUT THE BEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE PERIOD. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY WHILE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABILITY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MID LEVEL TROUGHING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR
TO BELOW CLIMO. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO. DEEP DRY AIR
AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EACH NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AROUND 06-08Z. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AND DIURNAL TIMING
DOES NOT HELP EITHER. NEVERTHELESS WILL KEEP VCSH AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AFTER THE
WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER. TUESDAY A
RELATIVELY NICE DAY WITH MAINLY A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND. SOME WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH A
WEAKER REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. S WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW WITH
ITS PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR
LESS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH TUES FROM SW EARLY
TO MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTN AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TUES MORNING MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR TUES NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT W-SW WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS THROUGH TUES AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. ONCE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS TUES NIGHT A SURGE OF N-NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER.

SEAS BELOW 2 FT OR LESS ON TUES WILL KICK UP IN CAA BEHIND FRONT
EARLY WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS.
NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FT IN AS STRONGER OFF
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT THU AND THU NIGHT AS GRADIENT
RELAXES SLIGHTLY. GRADIENT REMAINS STATIC FRI AND SAT AS THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH. FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2
TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43






000
FXUS62 KILM 210238
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1037 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OFFSHORE. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WAS LOCATED WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND ADVANCING EAST AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH LATE
THIS EVE. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION
WAS CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AND WILL SWING EAST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS FEATURE IS RATHER
POTENT...THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY...ESPECIALLY BELOW DEVELOPING CLOUD
BASES...4 TO 7 KFT. THIS WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. ALTHOUGH MEASURABLE RAINFALL CAN
NOT BE JUSTIFIED...A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
OVERNIGHT.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WITH CLEARER SKIES DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
TOWARD/AROUND SUNRISE. WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS WILL
NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG COOLING AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT. WE
ARE FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST AT THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. OVERALL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH TUES WITH AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS TROUGH
DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH ALOFT. EXPECT PCP WATER VALUES TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH TUES. AS VORT MOVES THROUGH THE MAIN H5
TROUGH ON TUES IT WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PCP TUES MORNING IN
CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH JUST OFF SHORE BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THE AFTN. PCP SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST AND WILL LEAVE JUST
SOME CLOUDS TUES MORNING FOR COASTAL LOCALES.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES NIGHT. A DEEP N-NW FLOW OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES SLOWLY AROUND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FINALLY LIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST BY THURS MORNING. DECENT DYNAMICS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WED BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH TO PRODUCE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
NC. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY WED MORNING.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND ON TUES IN WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MOISTER SW TO W
FLOW WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER HALF OF 70S. DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS INTO WED WITH DEEP DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND FRONT WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS BEING KNOCKED BACK DOWN AND MOST TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S FOR WED IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. DRY AIR WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES
WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE WITHOUT THE BEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE PERIOD. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY WHILE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABILITY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MID LEVEL TROUGHING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR
TO BELOW CLIMO. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO. DEEP DRY AIR
AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EACH NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AROUND 06-08Z. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AND DIURNAL TIMING
DOES NOT HELP EITHER. NEVERTHELESS WILL KEEP VCSH AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AFTER THE
WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER. TUESDAY A
RELATIVELY NICE DAY WITH MAINLY A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND. SOME WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH A
WEAKER REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. S WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW WITH
ITS PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR
LESS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH TUES FROM SW EARLY
TO MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTN AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TUES MORNING MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR TUES NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT W-SW WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS THROUGH TUES AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. ONCE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS TUES NIGHT A SURGE OF N-NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER.

SEAS BELOW 2 FT OR LESS ON TUES WILL KICK UP IN CAA BEHIND FRONT
EARLY WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS.
NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FT IN AS STRONGER OFF
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT THU AND THU NIGHT AS GRADIENT
RELAXES SLIGHTLY. GRADIENT REMAINS STATIC FRI AND SAT AS THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH. FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2
TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43







000
FXUS62 KILM 202357
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
757 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...SWINGING N AND E OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING.
WHILE THIS FEATURE IS RATHER POTENT...THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY...
ESPECIALLY BELOW DEVELOPING CLOUD BASES...4 TO 7 KFT. THIS WILL MAKE
IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. ALTHOUGH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL CAN NOT BE JUSTIFIED...A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NEAR TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
SOLUTIONS DO SUPPORT LATE NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE.

A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS WILL NOT
BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG COOLING AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT. WE ARE
FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST AT THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. OVERALL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH TUES WITH AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS TROUGH
DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH ALOFT. EXPECT PCP WATER VALUES TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH TUES. AS VORT MOVES THROUGH THE MAIN H5
TROUGH ON TUES IT WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PCP TUES MORNING IN
CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH JUST OFF SHORE BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THE AFTN. PCP SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST AND WILL LEAVE JUST
SOME CLOUDS TUES MORNING FOR COASTAL LOCALES.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES NIGHT. A DEEP N-NW FLOW OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES SLOWLY AROUND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FINALLY LIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST BY THURS MORNING. DECENT DYNAMICS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WED BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH TO PRODUCE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
NC. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY WED MORNING.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND ON TUES IN WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MOISTER SW TO W
FLOW WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER HALF OF 70S. DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS INTO WED WITH DEEP DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND FRONT WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS BEING KNOCKED BACK DOWN AND MOST TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S FOR WED IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. DRY AIR WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES
WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE WITHOUT THE BEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE PERIOD. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY WHILE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABILITY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MID LEVEL TROUGHING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR
TO BELOW CLIMO. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO. DEEP DRY AIR
AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EACH NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AROUND 06-08Z. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AND DIURNAL TIMING
DOES NOT HELP EITHER. NEVERTHELESS WILL KEEP VCSH AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AFTER THE
WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER. TUESDAY A
RELATIVELY NICE DAY WITH MAINLY A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND. SOME WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH A WEAKER
REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
S WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW WITH ITS PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR SOME 3
FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH TUES FROM SW EARLY
TO MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTN AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TUES MORNING MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR TUES NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT W-SW WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS THROUGH TUES AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. ONCE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS TUES NIGHT A SURGE OF N-NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER.

SEAS BELOW 2 FT OR LESS ON TUES WILL KICK UP IN CAA BEHIND FRONT
EARLY WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS.
NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FT IN AS STRONGER OFF
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT THU AND THU NIGHT AS GRADIENT
RELAXES SLIGHTLY. GRADIENT REMAINS STATIC FRI AND SAT AS THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH. FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2
TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43







000
FXUS62 KILM 202233
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
634 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLIP OFF SHORE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS DRY COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
BUT THE CENTER OF THIS AIRMASS IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD QUICKLY. IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS A STRONG SYSTEM IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE EVENING WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION FROM THE
DECREASING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CUMULUS FIELDS TO AN INCREASE IN
STRATIFORM CLOUDINESS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
TRY TO GRAB SOME MOISTURE THAT WILL BE GATHERING WELL OFFSHORE. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO CLOUDINESS BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY DRY MID
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST PAIRED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH MILDER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S OVER NWRN ZONES
(WHERE THERE SHOULD BE FAR FEWER CLOUDS) TO MID 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. OVERALL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH TUES WITH AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS TROUGH
DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH ALOFT. EXPECT PCP WATER VALUES TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH TUES. AS VORT MOVES THROUGH THE MAIN H5
TROUGH ON TUES IT WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PCP TUES MORNING IN
CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH JUST OFF SHORE BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THE AFTN. PCP SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST AND WILL LEAVE JUST
SOME CLOUDS TUES MORNING FOR COASTAL LOCALES.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES NIGHT. A DEEP N-NW FLOW OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES SLOWLY AROUND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FINALLY LIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST BY THURS MORNING. DECENT DYNAMICS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WED BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH TO PRODUCE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
NC. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY WED MORNING.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND ON TUES IN WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MOISTER SW TO W
FLOW WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER HALF OF 70S. DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS INTO WED WITH DEEP DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND FRONT WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS BEING KNOCKED BACK DOWN AND MOST TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S FOR WED IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. DRY AIR WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES
WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE WITHOUT THE BEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE PERIOD. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY WHILE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABILITY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MID LEVEL TROUGHING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR
TO BELOW CLIMO. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO. DEEP DRY AIR
AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EACH NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AROUND 06-08Z. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AND DIURNAL TIMING
DOES NOT HELP EITHER. NEVERTHELESS WILL KEEP VCSH AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AFTER THE
WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER. TUESDAY A
RELATIVELY NICE DAY WITH MAINLY A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND. SOME WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A RAPIDLY EAST-PROGRESSING HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN STRENGTH IN
RESPONSE AND SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 FT TOWARDS THE OUTER REACHES OF
MAINLY NRN LEGS. SOUTHERN ZONES MAY STAY CAPPED AT 2 FT AS THERE IS
NOT QUITE SUFFICIENT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT TO ALLOW FOR 3 FOOTERS.
THE LATE NIGHT PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL VEER THE WINDS TO WEST AND HELP
TO PUSH THE 3 FT SEAS BACK OUT OF THE AREA CLOSE TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH TUES FROM SW EARLY
TO MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTN AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TUES MORNING MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR TUES NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT W-SW WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS THROUGH TUES AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. ONCE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS TUES NIGHT A SURGE OF N-NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER.

SEAS BELOW 2 FT OR LESS ON TUES WILL KICK UP IN CAA BEHIND FRONT
EARLY WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS.
NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FT IN AS STRONGER OFF
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.


LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT THU AND THU NIGHT AS GRADIENT
RELAXES SLIGHTLY. GRADIENT REMAINS STATIC FRI AND SAT AS THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH. FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2
TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43












000
FXUS62 KILM 201900
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLIP OFF SHORE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS DRY COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
BUT THE CENTER OF THIS AIRMASS IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD QUICKLY. IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS A STRONG SYSTEM IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE EVENING WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION FROM THE
DECREASING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CUMULUS FIELDS TO AN INCREASE IN
STRATIFORM CLOUDINESS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
TRY TO GRAB SOME MOISTURE THAT WILL BE GATHERING WELL OFFSHORE. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO CLOUDINESS BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY DRY MID
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST PAIRED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH MILDER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S OVER NWRN ZONES
(WHERE THERE SHOULD BE FAR FEWER CLOUDS) TO MID 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. OVERALL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH TUES WITH AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS TROUGH
DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH ALOFT. EXPECT PCP WATER VALUES TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH TUES. AS VORT MOVES THROUGH THE MAIN H5
TROUGH ON TUES IT WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PCP TUES MORNING IN
CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH JUST OFF SHORE BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THE AFTN. PCP SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST AND WILL LEAVE JUST
SOME CLOUDS TUES MORNING FOR COASTAL LOCALES.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES NIGHT. A DEEP N-NW FLOW OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES SLOWLY AROUND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FINALLY LIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST BY THURS MORNING. DECENT DYNAMICS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WED BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH TO PRODUCE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
NC. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY WED MORNING.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND ON TUES IN WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MOISTER SW TO W
FLOW WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER HALF OF 70S. DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS INTO WED WITH DEEP DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND FRONT WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS BEING KNOCKED BACK DOWN AND MOST TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S FOR WED IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. DRY AIR WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES
WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE WITHOUT THE BEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE PERIOD. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY WHILE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABILITY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MID LEVEL TROUGHING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR
TO BELOW CLIMO. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO. DEEP DRY AIR
AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EACH NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS RETURN FLOW OCCURS
ANTICIPATE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALLOWING FOR A
FEW/SCT/BKN 4-5KFT CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INTO TUESDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT -DZ/-RA ALONG THE COAST EARLY ON...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A RAPIDLY EAST-PROGRESSING HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN STRENGTH IN
RESPONSE AND SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 FT TOWARDS THE OUTER REACHES OF
MAINLY NRN LEGS. SOUTHERN ZONES MAY STAY CAPPED AT 2 FT AS THERE IS
NOT QUITE SUFFICIENT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT TO ALLOW FOR 3 FOOTERS.
THE LATE NIGHT PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL VEER THE WINDS TO WEST AND HELP
TO PUSH THE 3 FT SEAS BACK OUT OF THE AREA CLOSE TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH TUES FROM SW EARLY
TO MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTN AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TUES MORNING MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR TUES NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT W-SW WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS THROUGH TUES AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. ONCE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS TUES NIGHT A SURGE OF N-NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER.

SEAS BELOW 2 FT OR LESS ON TUES WILL KICK UP IN CAA BEHIND FRONT
EARLY WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS.
NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FT IN AS STRONGER OFF
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.


LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT THU AND THU NIGHT AS GRADIENT
RELAXES SLIGHTLY. GRADIENT REMAINS STATIC FRI AND SAT AS THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH. FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2
TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB/SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 201900
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLIP OFF SHORE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS DRY COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
BUT THE CENTER OF THIS AIRMASS IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD QUICKLY. IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS A STRONG SYSTEM IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE EVENING WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION FROM THE
DECREASING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CUMULUS FIELDS TO AN INCREASE IN
STRATIFORM CLOUDINESS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
TRY TO GRAB SOME MOISTURE THAT WILL BE GATHERING WELL OFFSHORE. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO CLOUDINESS BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY DRY MID
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST PAIRED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH MILDER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S OVER NWRN ZONES
(WHERE THERE SHOULD BE FAR FEWER CLOUDS) TO MID 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. OVERALL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH TUES WITH AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS TROUGH
DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH ALOFT. EXPECT PCP WATER VALUES TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH TUES. AS VORT MOVES THROUGH THE MAIN H5
TROUGH ON TUES IT WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PCP TUES MORNING IN
CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH JUST OFF SHORE BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THE AFTN. PCP SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST AND WILL LEAVE JUST
SOME CLOUDS TUES MORNING FOR COASTAL LOCALES.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES NIGHT. A DEEP N-NW FLOW OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES SLOWLY AROUND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FINALLY LIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST BY THURS MORNING. DECENT DYNAMICS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WED BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH TO PRODUCE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
NC. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY WED MORNING.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND ON TUES IN WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MOISTER SW TO W
FLOW WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER HALF OF 70S. DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS INTO WED WITH DEEP DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND FRONT WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS BEING KNOCKED BACK DOWN AND MOST TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S FOR WED IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. DRY AIR WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES
WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE WITHOUT THE BEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE PERIOD. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY WHILE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABILITY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MID LEVEL TROUGHING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR
TO BELOW CLIMO. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO. DEEP DRY AIR
AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EACH NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS RETURN FLOW OCCURS
ANTICIPATE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALLOWING FOR A
FEW/SCT/BKN 4-5KFT CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INTO TUESDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT -DZ/-RA ALONG THE COAST EARLY ON...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A RAPIDLY EAST-PROGRESSING HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN STRENGTH IN
RESPONSE AND SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 FT TOWARDS THE OUTER REACHES OF
MAINLY NRN LEGS. SOUTHERN ZONES MAY STAY CAPPED AT 2 FT AS THERE IS
NOT QUITE SUFFICIENT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT TO ALLOW FOR 3 FOOTERS.
THE LATE NIGHT PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL VEER THE WINDS TO WEST AND HELP
TO PUSH THE 3 FT SEAS BACK OUT OF THE AREA CLOSE TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH TUES FROM SW EARLY
TO MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTN AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TUES MORNING MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR TUES NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT W-SW WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS THROUGH TUES AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. ONCE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS TUES NIGHT A SURGE OF N-NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER.

SEAS BELOW 2 FT OR LESS ON TUES WILL KICK UP IN CAA BEHIND FRONT
EARLY WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS.
NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FT IN AS STRONGER OFF
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.


LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT THU AND THU NIGHT AS GRADIENT
RELAXES SLIGHTLY. GRADIENT REMAINS STATIC FRI AND SAT AS THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH. FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2
TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB/SGL










000
FXUS62 KILM 201413
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1000 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN RISING BY LEAPS AND
BOUNDS...WHICH IS OF LITTLE SURPRISE GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND
SHALLOWNESS OF THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION SEEN ON AREA RAOBS. EARLY
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OTHER THAN THE OCCASIONAL WISP
OF CIRRUS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL ENJOY FULL SUNSHINE TODAY. THE
TEMP RISES WILL SLOW DOWN NOW HAVING CHANGED FROM MIXING OUT THE
INVERSION TO NORMAL DAYTIME INSOLATION. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON NO QPF OVER THE LAND
AREAS WITH ONLY A LIGHT SMATTERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES I DID ADJUST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
TUESDAY VIA GUIDANCE AND MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE MOVE
SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE A VERY
SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AT THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST
THEN EXPAND WEST TO EAST TO BASICALLY COVER A GOOD PART OF THE
CONUS. STILL NO REASON TO ADD ANY POPS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WARMING UP INTO THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. A
SIMILAR TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S EARLY WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS LATER TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. AS RETURN FLOW OCCURS...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALLOWING FOR A FEW/SCT/BKN 4-5KFT CLOUD LAYER
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...DECAYING GONZALO BACK-SWELL IS WEAK BUT
REGISTERING AT LOCAL BUOY PLATFORMS...WAVE PERIODS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING IN LINE WITH THE NATURAL WAVE DECAY. THE OTHER PORTION
OF WAVE ENERGY IS WEAK AND TIED TO WIND-SEAS/CHOP AS NE-ENE WINDS
HOLD AT 10 KT OR LESS. A TRANSITION DAY TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS OFFSHORE AND WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. WIND-SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN 12 KT OR LESS FROM THE S OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO WEST
4-9 KT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS ACROSS THE COAST. NO CAUTION
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. THIS AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS AND MORE OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH SCENARIO IS IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY
AND WINDS WILL PICK UP STEAM FROM THE NORTHEAST. DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL MAXIMIZE CONVECTIVE MIXING
AND EXPECT ABOUT 12 HOURS OF 15-20 KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL TUESDAY 1-3
FEET...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 1-4 FEET WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALTHOUGH ABATING...CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BE THE STORY FRIDAY AS WELL
WITH WIND SPEEDS HOVERING A LITTLE LOWER AROUND TEN KNOTS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB/MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL











000
FXUS62 KILM 201146
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
746 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING A CHILLY MORNING BEFORE COOL
TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...A BRIGHT START TO TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL
OF NOVEMBER 20 THAN OCTOBER 20...BUT A BIG WARM-UP TO COMMENCE. NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AN EARLY NIP IN THE AIR WILL BE FELT THIS MORNING BUT SUNSHINE
RIGHT OFF THE BAT WILL BEGIN WHAT WILL BE A MAMMOTH WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES. CHILLY UPPER 30S WILL SETTLE IN OUR RURAL NC COLD-
POCKETS INTO DAYBREAK...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 40S MOST EVERYWHERE
ELSE. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL
LEAD TO A CRISP...COOL AND CLEAR SUNRISE AND BUS STOP WAIT. A
30-35 DEGREE WARM-UP TODAY HOWEVER MAY CAUSE MANY FOLKS TO
ACCIDENTALLY LEAVE THE JACKETS AT WORK OR SCHOOL...AS A MODERATING
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS AND RETURN WIND FLOW BOOST OUR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. EVEN NEAR THE COAST THE MILD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT NEAR EQUAL MAXIMUMS.

TONIGHT OCEAN STRATO-CUMULUS WILL TRY TO ROTATE ONTO SHORE IN
SYNC WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE 7 KFT DESPITE
AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
TRIP OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS
CONVERGENCE AND BUOYANCY INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. A FEW OF THESE
MAY GRAZE OUR COASTAL ZONES FROM SW TO NE INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
MINIMUMS TUESDAY DAYBREAK AROUND 10 DEGREES MILDER COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING DUE TO ESTABLISHED/PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON NO QPF OVER THE LAND
AREAS WITH ONLY A LIGHT SMATTERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES I DID ADJUST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
TUESDAY VIA GUIDANCE AND MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE MOVE
SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE A VERY
SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AT THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST
THEN EXPAND WEST TO EAST TO BASICALLY COVER A GOOD PART OF THE
CONUS. STILL NO REASON TO ADD ANY POPS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WARMING UP INTO THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. A
SIMILAR TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S EARLY WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS LATER TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. AS RETURN FLOW OCCURS...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALLOWING FOR A FEW/SCT/BKN 4-5KFT CLOUD LAYER
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...DECAYING GONZALO BACK-SWELL IS WEAK BUT
REGISTERING AT LOCAL BUOY PLATFORMS...WAVE PERIODS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING IN LINE WITH THE NATURAL WAVE DECAY. THE OTHER PORTION
OF WAVE ENERGY IS WEAK AND TIED TO WIND-SEAS/CHOP AS NE-ENE WINDS
HOLD AT 10 KT OR LESS. A TRANSITION DAY TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS OFFSHORE AND WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. WIND-SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN 12 KT OR LESS FROM THE S OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO WEST
4-9 KT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS ACROSS THE COAST. NO CAUTION
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. THIS AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS AND MORE OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH SCENARIO IS IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY
AND WINDS WILL PICK UP STEAM FROM THE NORTHEAST. DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL MAXIMIZE CONVECTIVE MIXING
AND EXPECT ABOUT 12 HOURS OF 15-20 KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL TUESDAY 1-3
FEET...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 1-4 FEET WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALTHOUGH ABATING...CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BE THE STORY FRIDAY AS WELL
WITH WIND SPEEDS HOVERING A LITTLE LOWER AROUND TEN KNOTS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 201146
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
746 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING A CHILLY MORNING BEFORE COOL
TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...A BRIGHT START TO TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL
OF NOVEMBER 20 THAN OCTOBER 20...BUT A BIG WARM-UP TO COMMENCE. NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AN EARLY NIP IN THE AIR WILL BE FELT THIS MORNING BUT SUNSHINE
RIGHT OFF THE BAT WILL BEGIN WHAT WILL BE A MAMMOTH WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES. CHILLY UPPER 30S WILL SETTLE IN OUR RURAL NC COLD-
POCKETS INTO DAYBREAK...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 40S MOST EVERYWHERE
ELSE. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL
LEAD TO A CRISP...COOL AND CLEAR SUNRISE AND BUS STOP WAIT. A
30-35 DEGREE WARM-UP TODAY HOWEVER MAY CAUSE MANY FOLKS TO
ACCIDENTALLY LEAVE THE JACKETS AT WORK OR SCHOOL...AS A MODERATING
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS AND RETURN WIND FLOW BOOST OUR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. EVEN NEAR THE COAST THE MILD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT NEAR EQUAL MAXIMUMS.

TONIGHT OCEAN STRATO-CUMULUS WILL TRY TO ROTATE ONTO SHORE IN
SYNC WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE 7 KFT DESPITE
AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
TRIP OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS
CONVERGENCE AND BUOYANCY INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. A FEW OF THESE
MAY GRAZE OUR COASTAL ZONES FROM SW TO NE INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
MINIMUMS TUESDAY DAYBREAK AROUND 10 DEGREES MILDER COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING DUE TO ESTABLISHED/PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON NO QPF OVER THE LAND
AREAS WITH ONLY A LIGHT SMATTERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES I DID ADJUST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
TUESDAY VIA GUIDANCE AND MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE MOVE
SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE A VERY
SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AT THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST
THEN EXPAND WEST TO EAST TO BASICALLY COVER A GOOD PART OF THE
CONUS. STILL NO REASON TO ADD ANY POPS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WARMING UP INTO THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. A
SIMILAR TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S EARLY WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS LATER TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. AS RETURN FLOW OCCURS...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALLOWING FOR A FEW/SCT/BKN 4-5KFT CLOUD LAYER
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...DECAYING GONZALO BACK-SWELL IS WEAK BUT
REGISTERING AT LOCAL BUOY PLATFORMS...WAVE PERIODS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING IN LINE WITH THE NATURAL WAVE DECAY. THE OTHER PORTION
OF WAVE ENERGY IS WEAK AND TIED TO WIND-SEAS/CHOP AS NE-ENE WINDS
HOLD AT 10 KT OR LESS. A TRANSITION DAY TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS OFFSHORE AND WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. WIND-SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN 12 KT OR LESS FROM THE S OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO WEST
4-9 KT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS ACROSS THE COAST. NO CAUTION
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. THIS AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS AND MORE OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH SCENARIO IS IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY
AND WINDS WILL PICK UP STEAM FROM THE NORTHEAST. DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL MAXIMIZE CONVECTIVE MIXING
AND EXPECT ABOUT 12 HOURS OF 15-20 KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL TUESDAY 1-3
FEET...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 1-4 FEET WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALTHOUGH ABATING...CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BE THE STORY FRIDAY AS WELL
WITH WIND SPEEDS HOVERING A LITTLE LOWER AROUND TEN KNOTS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 200955
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING A CHILLY MORNING BEFORE COOL
TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...A BRIGHT START TO TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL
OF NOVEMBER 20 THAN OCTOBER 20...BUT A BIG WARM-UP TO COMMENCE. NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AN EARLY NIP IN THE AIR WILL BE FELT THIS MORNING BUT SUNSHINE
RIGHT OFF THE BAT WILL BEGIN WHAT WILL BE A MAMMOTH WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES. CHILLY UPPER 30S WILL SETTLE IN OUR RURAL NC COLD-
POCKETS INTO DAYBREAK...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 40S MOST EVERYWHERE
ELSE. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL
LEAD TO A CRISP...COOL AND CLEAR SUNRISE AND BUS STOP WAIT. A
30-35 DEGREE WARM-UP TODAY HOWEVER MAY CAUSE MANY FOLKS TO
ACCIDENTALLY LEAVE THE JACKETS AT WORK OR SCHOOL...AS A MODERATING
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS AND RETURN WIND FLOW BOOST OUR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. EVEN NEAR THE COAST THE MILD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT NEAR EQUAL MAXIMUMS.

TONIGHT OCEAN STRATO-CUMULUS WILL TRY TO ROTATE ONTO SHORE IN
SYNC WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE 7 KFT DESPITE
AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
TRIP OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS
CONVERGENCE AND BUOYANCY INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. A FEW OF THESE
MAY GRAZE OUR COASTAL ZONES FROM SW TO NE INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
MINIMUMS TUESDAY DAYBREAK AROUND 10 DEGREES MILDER COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING DUE TO ESTABLISHED/PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON NO QPF OVER THE LAND
AREAS WITH ONLY A LIGHT SMATTERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES I DID ADJUST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
TUESDAY VIA GUIDANCE AND MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE MOVE
SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE A VERY
SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AT THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST
THEN EXPAND WEST TO EAST TO BASICALLY COVER A GOOD PART OF THE
CONUS. STILL NO REASON TO ADD ANY POPS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WARMING UP INTO THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. A
SIMILAR TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S EARLY WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 09Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TODAY...A SE-S RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. HOWEVER BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS BY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...DECAYING GONZALO BACK-SWELL IS WEAK BUT
REGISTERING AT LOCAL BUOY PLATFORMS...WAVE PERIODS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING IN LINE WITH THE NATURAL WAVE DECAY. THE OTHER PORTION
OF WAVE ENERGY IS WEAK AND TIED TO WIND-SEAS/CHOP AS NE-ENE WINDS
HOLD AT 10 KT OR LESS. A TRANSITION DAY TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS OFFSHORE AND WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. WIND-SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN 12 KT OR LESS FROM THE S OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO WEST
4-9 KT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS ACROSS THE COAST. NO CAUTION
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. THIS AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS AND MORE OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH SCENARIO IS IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY
AND WINDS WILL PICK UP STEAM FROM THE NORTHEAST. DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL MAXIMIZE CONVECTIVE MIXING
AND EXPECT ABOUT 12 HOURS OF 15-20 KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL TUESDAY 1-3
FEET...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 1-4 FEET WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALTHOUGH ABATING...CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BE THE STORY FRIDAY AS WELL
WITH WIND SPEEDS HOVERING A LITTLE LOWER AROUND TEN KNOTS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 200955
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING A CHILLY MORNING BEFORE COOL
TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...A BRIGHT START TO TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL
OF NOVEMBER 20 THAN OCTOBER 20...BUT A BIG WARM-UP TO COMMENCE. NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AN EARLY NIP IN THE AIR WILL BE FELT THIS MORNING BUT SUNSHINE
RIGHT OFF THE BAT WILL BEGIN WHAT WILL BE A MAMMOTH WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES. CHILLY UPPER 30S WILL SETTLE IN OUR RURAL NC COLD-
POCKETS INTO DAYBREAK...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 40S MOST EVERYWHERE
ELSE. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL
LEAD TO A CRISP...COOL AND CLEAR SUNRISE AND BUS STOP WAIT. A
30-35 DEGREE WARM-UP TODAY HOWEVER MAY CAUSE MANY FOLKS TO
ACCIDENTALLY LEAVE THE JACKETS AT WORK OR SCHOOL...AS A MODERATING
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS AND RETURN WIND FLOW BOOST OUR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. EVEN NEAR THE COAST THE MILD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT NEAR EQUAL MAXIMUMS.

TONIGHT OCEAN STRATO-CUMULUS WILL TRY TO ROTATE ONTO SHORE IN
SYNC WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE 7 KFT DESPITE
AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
TRIP OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS
CONVERGENCE AND BUOYANCY INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. A FEW OF THESE
MAY GRAZE OUR COASTAL ZONES FROM SW TO NE INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
MINIMUMS TUESDAY DAYBREAK AROUND 10 DEGREES MILDER COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING DUE TO ESTABLISHED/PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON NO QPF OVER THE LAND
AREAS WITH ONLY A LIGHT SMATTERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES I DID ADJUST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
TUESDAY VIA GUIDANCE AND MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE MOVE
SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE A VERY
SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AT THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST
THEN EXPAND WEST TO EAST TO BASICALLY COVER A GOOD PART OF THE
CONUS. STILL NO REASON TO ADD ANY POPS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WARMING UP INTO THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. A
SIMILAR TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S EARLY WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 09Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TODAY...A SE-S RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. HOWEVER BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS BY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...DECAYING GONZALO BACK-SWELL IS WEAK BUT
REGISTERING AT LOCAL BUOY PLATFORMS...WAVE PERIODS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING IN LINE WITH THE NATURAL WAVE DECAY. THE OTHER PORTION
OF WAVE ENERGY IS WEAK AND TIED TO WIND-SEAS/CHOP AS NE-ENE WINDS
HOLD AT 10 KT OR LESS. A TRANSITION DAY TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS OFFSHORE AND WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. WIND-SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN 12 KT OR LESS FROM THE S OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO WEST
4-9 KT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS ACROSS THE COAST. NO CAUTION
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. THIS AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS AND MORE OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH SCENARIO IS IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY
AND WINDS WILL PICK UP STEAM FROM THE NORTHEAST. DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL MAXIMIZE CONVECTIVE MIXING
AND EXPECT ABOUT 12 HOURS OF 15-20 KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL TUESDAY 1-3
FEET...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 1-4 FEET WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALTHOUGH ABATING...CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BE THE STORY FRIDAY AS WELL
WITH WIND SPEEDS HOVERING A LITTLE LOWER AROUND TEN KNOTS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 200855
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
455 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING A CHILLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 455 AM MONDAY...AN EARLY NIP IN THE AIR WILL BE FELT THIS
MORNING BUT SUNSHINE RIGHT OFF THE BAT WILL BEGIN WHAT WILL BE A
LARGE WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES. CHILLY UPPER 30S WILL SETTLE IN OUR
RURAL NC COLD-POCKETS INTO DAYBREAK...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 40S MOST
EVERYWHERE ELSE. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO A CRISP...COOL AND CLEAR SUNRISE AND BUS
STOP WAIT. A 30-35 DEGREE WARM-UP TODAY HOWEVER MAY CAUSE MANY
FOLKS TO ACCIDENTALLY LEAVE THE JACKETS AT WORK OR SCHOOL...AS A
MODERATING CONTINENTAL AIR MASS AND RETURN WIND FLOW BOOST OUR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. EVEN NEAR THE COAST THE
MILD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT NEAR EQUAL MAXIMUMS.

TONIGHT OCEAN STRATO-CUMULUS WILL TRY TO ROTATE ONTO SHORE IN
SYNC WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE 7 KFT DESPITE
AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
TRIP OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS
CONVERGENCE AND BUOYANCY INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. A FEW OF THESE
MAY GRAZE OUR COASTAL ZONES FROM SW TO NE INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
MINIMUMS TUESDAY DAYBREAK AROUND 10 DEGREES MILDER COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING DUE TO ESTABLISHED/PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON NO QPF OVER THE LAND
AREAS WITH ONLY A LIGHT SMATTERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES I DID ADJUST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
TUESDAY VIA GUIDANCE AND MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE MOVE
SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE A VERY
SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AT THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST
THEN EXPAND WEST TO EAST TO BASICALLY COVER A GOOD PART OF THE
CONUS. STILL NO REASON TO ADD ANY POPS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WARMING UP INTO THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. A
SIMILAR TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S EARLY WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 09Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TODAY...A SE-S RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. HOWEVER BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS BY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 455 AM MONDAY...DECAYING GONZALO BACK-SWELL IS WEAK BUT
REGISTERING AT LOCAL BUOY PLATFORMS...WAVE PERIODS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING IN LINE WITH THE NATURAL WAVE DECAY. THE OTHER PORTION
OF WAVE ENERGY IS WEAK AND TIED TO WIND-SEAS/CHOP AS NE-ENE WINDS
HOLD AT 10 KT OR LESS. A TRANSITION DAY TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS OFFSHORE AND WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. WIND-SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN 12 KT OR LESS FROM THE S OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO WEST
4-9 KT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS ACROSS THE COAST. NO CAUTION
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. THIS AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS AND MORE OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH SCENARIO IS IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY
AND WINDS WILL PICK UP STEAM FROM THE NORTHEAST. DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL MAXIMIZE CONVECTIVE MIXING
AND EXPECT ABOUT 12 HOURS OF 15-20 KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL TUESDAY 1-3
FEET...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 1-4 FEET WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALTHOUGH ABATING...CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BE THE STORY FRIDAY AS WELL
WITH WIND SPEEDS HOVERING A LITTLE LOWER AROUND TEN KNOTS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 200855
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
455 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING A CHILLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 455 AM MONDAY...AN EARLY NIP IN THE AIR WILL BE FELT THIS
MORNING BUT SUNSHINE RIGHT OFF THE BAT WILL BEGIN WHAT WILL BE A
LARGE WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES. CHILLY UPPER 30S WILL SETTLE IN OUR
RURAL NC COLD-POCKETS INTO DAYBREAK...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 40S MOST
EVERYWHERE ELSE. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO A CRISP...COOL AND CLEAR SUNRISE AND BUS
STOP WAIT. A 30-35 DEGREE WARM-UP TODAY HOWEVER MAY CAUSE MANY
FOLKS TO ACCIDENTALLY LEAVE THE JACKETS AT WORK OR SCHOOL...AS A
MODERATING CONTINENTAL AIR MASS AND RETURN WIND FLOW BOOST OUR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. EVEN NEAR THE COAST THE
MILD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT NEAR EQUAL MAXIMUMS.

TONIGHT OCEAN STRATO-CUMULUS WILL TRY TO ROTATE ONTO SHORE IN
SYNC WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE 7 KFT DESPITE
AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
TRIP OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS
CONVERGENCE AND BUOYANCY INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. A FEW OF THESE
MAY GRAZE OUR COASTAL ZONES FROM SW TO NE INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
MINIMUMS TUESDAY DAYBREAK AROUND 10 DEGREES MILDER COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING DUE TO ESTABLISHED/PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON NO QPF OVER THE LAND
AREAS WITH ONLY A LIGHT SMATTERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES I DID ADJUST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
TUESDAY VIA GUIDANCE AND MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE MOVE
SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE A VERY
SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AT THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST
THEN EXPAND WEST TO EAST TO BASICALLY COVER A GOOD PART OF THE
CONUS. STILL NO REASON TO ADD ANY POPS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WARMING UP INTO THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. A
SIMILAR TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S EARLY WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 09Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TODAY...A SE-S RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. HOWEVER BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS BY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 455 AM MONDAY...DECAYING GONZALO BACK-SWELL IS WEAK BUT
REGISTERING AT LOCAL BUOY PLATFORMS...WAVE PERIODS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING IN LINE WITH THE NATURAL WAVE DECAY. THE OTHER PORTION
OF WAVE ENERGY IS WEAK AND TIED TO WIND-SEAS/CHOP AS NE-ENE WINDS
HOLD AT 10 KT OR LESS. A TRANSITION DAY TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS OFFSHORE AND WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. WIND-SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN 12 KT OR LESS FROM THE S OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO WEST
4-9 KT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS ACROSS THE COAST. NO CAUTION
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. THIS AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS AND MORE OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH SCENARIO IS IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY
AND WINDS WILL PICK UP STEAM FROM THE NORTHEAST. DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL MAXIMIZE CONVECTIVE MIXING
AND EXPECT ABOUT 12 HOURS OF 15-20 KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL TUESDAY 1-3
FEET...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 1-4 FEET WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALTHOUGH ABATING...CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BE THE STORY FRIDAY AS WELL
WITH WIND SPEEDS HOVERING A LITTLE LOWER AROUND TEN KNOTS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 200724
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING A CHILLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...AN EARLY NIP IN THE AIR WILL BE FELT THIS
MORNING BUT SUNSHINE RIGHT OFF THE BAT WILL BEGIN WHAT WILL BE A
LARGE WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES. CHILLY UPPER 30S WILL SETTLE IN OUR
RURAL COLD-POCKETS INTO DAYBREAK...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 40S MOST
EVERYWHERE ELSE. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO A CRISP...COOL AND CLEAR SUNRISE AND BUS
STOP WAIT. A 30-35 DEGREE WARM-UP TODAY HOWEVER MAY CAUSE MANY
FOLKS TO ACCIDENTALLY LEAVE THE JACKETS AT WORK OR SCHOOL...AS A
MODERATING CONTINENTAL AIR MASS AND RETURN WIND FLOW BOOST OUR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. EVEN NEAR THE COAST THE
MILD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT NEAR EQUAL MAXIMUMS.

TONIGHT OCEAN STRATO-CUMULUS WILL TRY TO ROTATE ONTO SHORE IN
SYNC WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE 7 KFT DESPITE
AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
TRIP OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS
CONVERGENCE AND BUOYANCY INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. A FEW OF THESE
MAY GRAZE OUR COASTAL ZONES FROM SW TO NE INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
MINIMUMS TUESDAY DAYBREAK AROUND 10 DEGREES MILDER COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING DUE TO ESTABLISHED/PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON NO QPF OVER THE LAND
AREAS WITH ONLY A LIGHT SMATTERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES I DID ADJUST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
TUESDAY VIA GUIDANCE AND MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE MOVE
SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE A VERY
SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AT THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST
THEN EXPAND WEST TO EAST TO BASICALLY COVER A GOOD PART OF THE
CONUS. STILL NO REASON TO ADD ANY POPS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WARMING UP INTO THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. A
SIMILAR TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S EARLY WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND THERE IS EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...A SE-S RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL FOR AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. HOWEVER BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY AT
ALL TERMINALS BY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...DECAYING GONZALO BACK-SWELL IS WEAK BUT
REGISTERING AT LOCAL BUOY PLATFORMS...WAVE PERIODS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING IN LINE WITH THE NATURAL WAVE DECAY. THE OTHER PORTION
OF WAVE ENERGY IS WEAK AND TIED TO WIND-SEAS/CHOP AS NE-ENE WINDS
HOLD AT 10 KT OR LESS. A TRANSITION DAY TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS OFFSHORE AND WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. WIND-SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN 12 KT OR LESS FROM THE S OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO WEST
4-9 KT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS ACROSS THE COAST. NO CAUTION
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. THIS AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS AND MORE OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH SCENARIO IS IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY
AND WINDS WILL PICK UP STEAM FROM THE NORTHEAST. DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL MAXIMIZE CONVECTIVE MIXING
AND EXPECT ABOUT 12 HOURS OF 15-20 KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL TUESDAY 1-3
FEET...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 1-4 FEET WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALTHOUGH ABATING...CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BE THE STORY FRIDAY AS WELL
WITH WIND SPEEDS HOVERING A LITTLE LOWER AROUND TEN KNOTS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/MRR
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KILM 200724
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING A CHILLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...AN EARLY NIP IN THE AIR WILL BE FELT THIS
MORNING BUT SUNSHINE RIGHT OFF THE BAT WILL BEGIN WHAT WILL BE A
LARGE WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES. CHILLY UPPER 30S WILL SETTLE IN OUR
RURAL COLD-POCKETS INTO DAYBREAK...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 40S MOST
EVERYWHERE ELSE. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO A CRISP...COOL AND CLEAR SUNRISE AND BUS
STOP WAIT. A 30-35 DEGREE WARM-UP TODAY HOWEVER MAY CAUSE MANY
FOLKS TO ACCIDENTALLY LEAVE THE JACKETS AT WORK OR SCHOOL...AS A
MODERATING CONTINENTAL AIR MASS AND RETURN WIND FLOW BOOST OUR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. EVEN NEAR THE COAST THE
MILD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT NEAR EQUAL MAXIMUMS.

TONIGHT OCEAN STRATO-CUMULUS WILL TRY TO ROTATE ONTO SHORE IN
SYNC WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE 7 KFT DESPITE
AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
TRIP OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS
CONVERGENCE AND BUOYANCY INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. A FEW OF THESE
MAY GRAZE OUR COASTAL ZONES FROM SW TO NE INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
MINIMUMS TUESDAY DAYBREAK AROUND 10 DEGREES MILDER COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING DUE TO ESTABLISHED/PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON NO QPF OVER THE LAND
AREAS WITH ONLY A LIGHT SMATTERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES I DID ADJUST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
TUESDAY VIA GUIDANCE AND MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE MOVE
SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE A VERY
SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AT THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST
THEN EXPAND WEST TO EAST TO BASICALLY COVER A GOOD PART OF THE
CONUS. STILL NO REASON TO ADD ANY POPS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WARMING UP INTO THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. A
SIMILAR TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S EARLY WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND THERE IS EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...A SE-S RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL FOR AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. HOWEVER BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY AT
ALL TERMINALS BY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...DECAYING GONZALO BACK-SWELL IS WEAK BUT
REGISTERING AT LOCAL BUOY PLATFORMS...WAVE PERIODS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING IN LINE WITH THE NATURAL WAVE DECAY. THE OTHER PORTION
OF WAVE ENERGY IS WEAK AND TIED TO WIND-SEAS/CHOP AS NE-ENE WINDS
HOLD AT 10 KT OR LESS. A TRANSITION DAY TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS OFFSHORE AND WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. WIND-SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN 12 KT OR LESS FROM THE S OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO WEST
4-9 KT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS ACROSS THE COAST. NO CAUTION
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. THIS AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS AND MORE OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH SCENARIO IS IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY
AND WINDS WILL PICK UP STEAM FROM THE NORTHEAST. DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL MAXIMIZE CONVECTIVE MIXING
AND EXPECT ABOUT 12 HOURS OF 15-20 KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL TUESDAY 1-3
FEET...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 1-4 FEET WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALTHOUGH ABATING...CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BE THE STORY FRIDAY AS WELL
WITH WIND SPEEDS HOVERING A LITTLE LOWER AROUND TEN KNOTS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/MRR
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KILM 200535
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
135 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING A CHILLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN STEADILY SINCE DUSK AND
WERE ALREADY BELOW 50 DEGREES IN MANY COMMUNITIES. THERE WAS A
THIN VEIL OF JET CIRRUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVE...
OTHERWISE THE SKY WAS CLEAR AS A BELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL BE CALM AND THE COLUMN DRY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STRATOCUMULUS MAY MAKE A
RUN FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THESE CLOUDS SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE
GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE HIGH CENTER.

THE BIGGEST PIECE OF THE FORECAST PUZZLE FOR TONIGHT REMAINS HOW
COOL TEMPS WILL GET. THE RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT ARE IN THE MID 30S.
WE ARE NOT FORECASTING RECORD LOWS...BUT CERTAINLY COLDER THAN WHAT
IS NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
WITH MID 40S MAINLY FOR THE BEACH COMMUNITIES. POCKETS OF UPPER 30S
ARE EXPECTED INLAND. THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FROST.

SINCE TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO MORE OR LESS THE DEWPOINT VALUES...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. HOWEVER...THE
DRYNESS OF THE AIR ABOVE THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE ARGUES AGAINST GROUND
FOG BECOMING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TANGIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES BY DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S MONDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY. MINS EACH
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER
SUPPORT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AS THE 5H LOW EXITS
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS MAINTAINS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WED BUT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
FRI AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE BULK OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL RUN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H LOW AND A SFC LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FL. FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THIS GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND THERE IS EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...A SE-S RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL FOR AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. HOWEVER BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY AT
ALL TERMINALS BY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT
AND THEN OFFSHORE OF THE VA-NC COAST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NNE WINDS THIS EVE WILL VEER TO ENE BY SUNRISE. A DEVELOPING LAND
BREEZE MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...BUT
DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR
LESS...BUT UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM A SOLID 15
KT WED MORNING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...RJD/COLBY
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM...3
AVIATION...8







000
FXUS62 KILM 200535
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
135 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING A CHILLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN STEADILY SINCE DUSK AND
WERE ALREADY BELOW 50 DEGREES IN MANY COMMUNITIES. THERE WAS A
THIN VEIL OF JET CIRRUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVE...
OTHERWISE THE SKY WAS CLEAR AS A BELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL BE CALM AND THE COLUMN DRY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STRATOCUMULUS MAY MAKE A
RUN FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THESE CLOUDS SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE
GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE HIGH CENTER.

THE BIGGEST PIECE OF THE FORECAST PUZZLE FOR TONIGHT REMAINS HOW
COOL TEMPS WILL GET. THE RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT ARE IN THE MID 30S.
WE ARE NOT FORECASTING RECORD LOWS...BUT CERTAINLY COLDER THAN WHAT
IS NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
WITH MID 40S MAINLY FOR THE BEACH COMMUNITIES. POCKETS OF UPPER 30S
ARE EXPECTED INLAND. THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FROST.

SINCE TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO MORE OR LESS THE DEWPOINT VALUES...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. HOWEVER...THE
DRYNESS OF THE AIR ABOVE THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE ARGUES AGAINST GROUND
FOG BECOMING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TANGIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES BY DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S MONDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY. MINS EACH
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER
SUPPORT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AS THE 5H LOW EXITS
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS MAINTAINS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WED BUT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
FRI AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE BULK OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL RUN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H LOW AND A SFC LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FL. FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THIS GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND THERE IS EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...A SE-S RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL FOR AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. HOWEVER BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY AT
ALL TERMINALS BY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT
AND THEN OFFSHORE OF THE VA-NC COAST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NNE WINDS THIS EVE WILL VEER TO ENE BY SUNRISE. A DEVELOPING LAND
BREEZE MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...BUT
DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR
LESS...BUT UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM A SOLID 15
KT WED MORNING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...RJD/COLBY
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM...3
AVIATION...8








000
FXUS62 KILM 200231
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1031 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD...WILL BRING A COOL NIGHT BY MID
OCTOBER STANDARDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT MID WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND
FOR THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN STEADILY SINCE DUSK AND
WERE ALREADY BELOW 50 DEGREES IN MANY COMMUNITIES. THERE WAS A THIN
VEIL OF JET CIRRUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVE...
OTHERWISE THE SKY WAS CLEAR AS A BELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL BE CALM AND THE COLUMN DRY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STRATOCUMULUS MAY MAKE A
RUN FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE CLOUDS SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE GIVEN THE POSITION
OF THE HIGH CENTER.

THE BIGGEST PIECE OF THE FORECAST PUZZLE FOR TONIGHT REMAINS HOW
COOL TEMPS WILL GET. THE RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT ARE IN THE MID 30S.
WE ARE NOT FORECASTING RECORD LOWS...BUT CERTAINLY COLDER THAN WHAT
IS NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
WITH MID 40S MAINLY FOR THE BEACH COMMUNITIES. POCKETS OF UPPER 30S
ARE EXPECTED INLAND. THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FROST.

SINCE TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO MORE OR LESS THE DEWPOINT VALUES...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. HOWEVER...THE
DRYNESS OF THE AIR ABOVE THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE ARGUES AGAINST GROUND
FOG BECOMING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TANGIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES BY DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S MONDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY. MINS EACH
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER
SUPPORT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AS THE 5H LOW EXITS
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS MAINTAINS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WED BUT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
FRI AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE BULK OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL RUN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H LOW AND A SFC LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FL. FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THIS GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
RETURN SE-S FLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. BY LATE AFTERNOON LOW VFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT
AND THEN OFFSHORE OF THE VA-NC COAST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NNE
WINDS THIS EVE WILL VEER TO ENE BY SUNRISE. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...BUT
DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR
LESS...BUT UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM A SOLID 15
KT WED MORNING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR






000
FXUS62 KILM 200231
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1031 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD...WILL BRING A COOL NIGHT BY MID
OCTOBER STANDARDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT MID WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND
FOR THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN STEADILY SINCE DUSK AND
WERE ALREADY BELOW 50 DEGREES IN MANY COMMUNITIES. THERE WAS A THIN
VEIL OF JET CIRRUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVE...
OTHERWISE THE SKY WAS CLEAR AS A BELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL BE CALM AND THE COLUMN DRY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STRATOCUMULUS MAY MAKE A
RUN FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE CLOUDS SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE GIVEN THE POSITION
OF THE HIGH CENTER.

THE BIGGEST PIECE OF THE FORECAST PUZZLE FOR TONIGHT REMAINS HOW
COOL TEMPS WILL GET. THE RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT ARE IN THE MID 30S.
WE ARE NOT FORECASTING RECORD LOWS...BUT CERTAINLY COLDER THAN WHAT
IS NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
WITH MID 40S MAINLY FOR THE BEACH COMMUNITIES. POCKETS OF UPPER 30S
ARE EXPECTED INLAND. THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FROST.

SINCE TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO MORE OR LESS THE DEWPOINT VALUES...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. HOWEVER...THE
DRYNESS OF THE AIR ABOVE THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE ARGUES AGAINST GROUND
FOG BECOMING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TANGIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES BY DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S MONDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY. MINS EACH
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER
SUPPORT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AS THE 5H LOW EXITS
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS MAINTAINS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WED BUT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
FRI AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE BULK OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL RUN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H LOW AND A SFC LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FL. FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THIS GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
RETURN SE-S FLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. BY LATE AFTERNOON LOW VFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT
AND THEN OFFSHORE OF THE VA-NC COAST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NNE
WINDS THIS EVE WILL VEER TO ENE BY SUNRISE. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...BUT
DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR
LESS...BUT UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM A SOLID 15
KT WED MORNING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 192353
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
752 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD...WILL BRING A COOL NIGHT BY MID
OCTOBER STANDARDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT MID WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND
FOR THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...THIN VEIL OF JET CIRRUS LIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVE...OTHERWISE THE SKY IS CLEAR AS A BELL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL BE CALM AND THE COLUMN
DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STRATOCUMULUS
MAY MAKE A RUN FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THESE CLOUDS SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH CENTER.

THE BIGGEST PIECE OF THE FORECAST PUZZLE FOR TONIGHT IS HOW COOL
WILL TEMPS GET. THE RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT ARE IN THE MID 30S. WE
ARE NOT FORECASTING RECORD LOWS...BUT CERTAINLY COLDER THAN WHAT IS
NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
WITH MID 40S MAINLY FOR THE BEACH COMMUNITIES. POCKETS OF UPPER 30S
ARE EXPECTED INLAND. THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TANGIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES BY DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S MONDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY. MINS EACH
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER
SUPPORT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AS THE 5H LOW EXITS
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS MAINTAINS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WED BUT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
FRI AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE BULK OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL RUN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H LOW AND A SFC LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FL. FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THIS GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
RETURN SE-S FLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. BY LATE AFTERNOON LOW VFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT AND
THEN OFFSHORE OF THE VA-NC COAST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NNE
WINDS THIS EVE WILL VEER TO ENE BY SUNRISE. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE
2 FT OR LESS...BUT UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM A SOLID 15
KT WED MORNING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR













000
FXUS62 KILM 192353
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
752 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD...WILL BRING A COOL NIGHT BY MID
OCTOBER STANDARDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT MID WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND
FOR THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...THIN VEIL OF JET CIRRUS LIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVE...OTHERWISE THE SKY IS CLEAR AS A BELL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL BE CALM AND THE COLUMN
DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STRATOCUMULUS
MAY MAKE A RUN FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THESE CLOUDS SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH CENTER.

THE BIGGEST PIECE OF THE FORECAST PUZZLE FOR TONIGHT IS HOW COOL
WILL TEMPS GET. THE RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT ARE IN THE MID 30S. WE
ARE NOT FORECASTING RECORD LOWS...BUT CERTAINLY COLDER THAN WHAT IS
NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
WITH MID 40S MAINLY FOR THE BEACH COMMUNITIES. POCKETS OF UPPER 30S
ARE EXPECTED INLAND. THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TANGIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES BY DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S MONDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY. MINS EACH
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER
SUPPORT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AS THE 5H LOW EXITS
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS MAINTAINS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WED BUT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
FRI AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE BULK OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL RUN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H LOW AND A SFC LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FL. FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THIS GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
RETURN SE-S FLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. BY LATE AFTERNOON LOW VFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT AND
THEN OFFSHORE OF THE VA-NC COAST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NNE
WINDS THIS EVE WILL VEER TO ENE BY SUNRISE. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE
2 FT OR LESS...BUT UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM A SOLID 15
KT WED MORNING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR












000
FXUS62 KILM 192353
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
752 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD...WILL BRING A COOL NIGHT BY MID
OCTOBER STANDARDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT MID WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND
FOR THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...THIN VEIL OF JET CIRRUS LIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVE...OTHERWISE THE SKY IS CLEAR AS A BELL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL BE CALM AND THE COLUMN
DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STRATOCUMULUS
MAY MAKE A RUN FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THESE CLOUDS SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH CENTER.

THE BIGGEST PIECE OF THE FORECAST PUZZLE FOR TONIGHT IS HOW COOL
WILL TEMPS GET. THE RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT ARE IN THE MID 30S. WE
ARE NOT FORECASTING RECORD LOWS...BUT CERTAINLY COLDER THAN WHAT IS
NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
WITH MID 40S MAINLY FOR THE BEACH COMMUNITIES. POCKETS OF UPPER 30S
ARE EXPECTED INLAND. THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TANGIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES BY DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S MONDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY. MINS EACH
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER
SUPPORT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AS THE 5H LOW EXITS
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS MAINTAINS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WED BUT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
FRI AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE BULK OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL RUN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H LOW AND A SFC LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FL. FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THIS GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
RETURN SE-S FLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. BY LATE AFTERNOON LOW VFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT AND
THEN OFFSHORE OF THE VA-NC COAST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NNE
WINDS THIS EVE WILL VEER TO ENE BY SUNRISE. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE
2 FT OR LESS...BUT UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM A SOLID 15
KT WED MORNING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR












000
FXUS62 KILM 192353
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
752 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD...WILL BRING A COOL NIGHT BY MID
OCTOBER STANDARDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT MID WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND
FOR THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...THIN VEIL OF JET CIRRUS LIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVE...OTHERWISE THE SKY IS CLEAR AS A BELL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL BE CALM AND THE COLUMN
DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STRATOCUMULUS
MAY MAKE A RUN FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THESE CLOUDS SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH CENTER.

THE BIGGEST PIECE OF THE FORECAST PUZZLE FOR TONIGHT IS HOW COOL
WILL TEMPS GET. THE RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT ARE IN THE MID 30S. WE
ARE NOT FORECASTING RECORD LOWS...BUT CERTAINLY COLDER THAN WHAT IS
NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
WITH MID 40S MAINLY FOR THE BEACH COMMUNITIES. POCKETS OF UPPER 30S
ARE EXPECTED INLAND. THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TANGIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES BY DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S MONDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY. MINS EACH
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER
SUPPORT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AS THE 5H LOW EXITS
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS MAINTAINS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WED BUT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
FRI AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE BULK OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL RUN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H LOW AND A SFC LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FL. FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THIS GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
RETURN SE-S FLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. BY LATE AFTERNOON LOW VFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT AND
THEN OFFSHORE OF THE VA-NC COAST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NNE
WINDS THIS EVE WILL VEER TO ENE BY SUNRISE. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE
2 FT OR LESS...BUT UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM A SOLID 15
KT WED MORNING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR













000
FXUS62 KILM 192330
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
730 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A SHOT OF AUTUMN TONIGHT WITH
A GOOD WARM UP INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY IN THE MID 60S ATTM. THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...MOVES CLOSER
TO THE AREA. WITH A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS DEVELOPING LATER
ON...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE UPPER
60S...WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING 70...BEFORE BEGINNING THEIR
GRADUAL DESCENT FOR THE DAY. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS FOCUS TURNS TO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS
REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS INLAND DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TANGIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES BY DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S MONDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY. MINS EACH
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER
SUPPORT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AS THE 5H LOW EXITS
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS MAINTAINS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WED BUT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
FRI AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE BULK OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL RUN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H LOW AND A SFC LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FL. FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THIS GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
RETURN SE-S FLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. BY LATE AFTERNOON LOW VFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST FOR
THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN...ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. SEAS AROUND
3 TO 5 FT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME 2 TO 4 FEET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY
THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND REMAIN WEAK.
SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM A SOLID 15
KT WED MORNING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...XXXI
NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 192330
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
730 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A SHOT OF AUTUMN TONIGHT WITH
A GOOD WARM UP INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY IN THE MID 60S ATTM. THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...MOVES CLOSER
TO THE AREA. WITH A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS DEVELOPING LATER
ON...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE UPPER
60S...WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING 70...BEFORE BEGINNING THEIR
GRADUAL DESCENT FOR THE DAY. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS FOCUS TURNS TO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS
REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS INLAND DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TANGIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES BY DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S MONDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY. MINS EACH
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER
SUPPORT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AS THE 5H LOW EXITS
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS MAINTAINS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WED BUT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
FRI AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE BULK OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL RUN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H LOW AND A SFC LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FL. FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THIS GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
RETURN SE-S FLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. BY LATE AFTERNOON LOW VFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST FOR
THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN...ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. SEAS AROUND
3 TO 5 FT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME 2 TO 4 FEET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY
THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND REMAIN WEAK.
SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM A SOLID 15
KT WED MORNING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...XXXI
NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 191843
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
243 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A SHOT OF AUTUMN TONIGHT WITH
A GOOD WARM UP INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY IN THE MID 60S ATTM. THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...MOVES CLOSER
TO THE AREA. WITH A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS DEVELOPING LATER
ON...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE UPPER
60S...WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING 70...BEFORE BEGINNING THEIR
GRADUAL DESCENT FOR THE DAY. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS FOCUS TURNS TO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS
REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS INLAND DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TANGIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.  TEMPERATURES BY DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S MONDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY.  MINS EACH NIGHT
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE COAST.
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER SUPPORT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AS THE 5H LOW EXITS
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS MAINTAINS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WED BUT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
FRI AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE BULK OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL RUN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H LOW AND A SFC LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FL. FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THIS GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT. A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER
THE AREA AFTER 18Z. LIGHT/VRBL WINDS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. NO FOG ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
AROUND 5 KT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST FOR
THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN...ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. SEAS AROUND
3 TO 5 FT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME 2 TO 4 FEET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY
THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND REMAIN WEAK.
SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM A SOLID 15
KT WED MORNING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...XXXI
NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR









000
FXUS62 KILM 191843
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
243 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A SHOT OF AUTUMN TONIGHT WITH
A GOOD WARM UP INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY IN THE MID 60S ATTM. THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...MOVES CLOSER
TO THE AREA. WITH A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS DEVELOPING LATER
ON...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE UPPER
60S...WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING 70...BEFORE BEGINNING THEIR
GRADUAL DESCENT FOR THE DAY. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS FOCUS TURNS TO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS
REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS INLAND DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TANGIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.  TEMPERATURES BY DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S MONDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY.  MINS EACH NIGHT
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE COAST.
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER SUPPORT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AS THE 5H LOW EXITS
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS MAINTAINS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WED BUT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
FRI AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE BULK OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL RUN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H LOW AND A SFC LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FL. FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THIS GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT. A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER
THE AREA AFTER 18Z. LIGHT/VRBL WINDS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. NO FOG ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
AROUND 5 KT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST FOR
THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN...ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. SEAS AROUND
3 TO 5 FT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME 2 TO 4 FEET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY
THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND REMAIN WEAK.
SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM A SOLID 15
KT WED MORNING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...XXXI
NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR










000
FXUS62 KILM 191747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
147 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A SHOT OF AUTUMN TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH A GOOD WARM UP INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY IN THE MID 60S ATTM. THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...MOVES CLOSER
TO THE AREA. WITH A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS DEVELOPING LATER
ON...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE UPPER
60S...WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING 70...BEFORE BEGINNING THEIR
GRADUAL DESCENT FOR THE DAY. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS FOCUS TURNS TO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS
REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS INLAND DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATING WILL ALLOW A QUICK WARM-UP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FROM 70-75 ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE WARMER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST.
DEEP TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND TIMING LAGS
JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL
BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MONDAYS VALUES BUT 80 DEGREES WILL BE A
STRETCH AND IS NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING.
NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BEYOND THIS FOR NEXT WEEKEND A FLATTER
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES TO OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. POPS REMAIN A NO SHOW IN THE FORECAST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A METHODICAL RISE FROM FROM 60S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO 70S AND 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT. A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER
THE AREA AFTER 18Z. LIGHT/VRBL WINDS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. NO FOG ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
AROUND 5 KT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST FOR
THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN...ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. SEAS AROUND
3 TO 5 FT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME 2 TO 4 FEET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY BUT
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS 10-15 KNOTS WILL SUFFICE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY DROPPING
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 191747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
147 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A SHOT OF AUTUMN TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH A GOOD WARM UP INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY IN THE MID 60S ATTM. THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...MOVES CLOSER
TO THE AREA. WITH A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS DEVELOPING LATER
ON...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE UPPER
60S...WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING 70...BEFORE BEGINNING THEIR
GRADUAL DESCENT FOR THE DAY. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS FOCUS TURNS TO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS
REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS INLAND DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATING WILL ALLOW A QUICK WARM-UP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FROM 70-75 ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE WARMER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST.
DEEP TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND TIMING LAGS
JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL
BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MONDAYS VALUES BUT 80 DEGREES WILL BE A
STRETCH AND IS NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING.
NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BEYOND THIS FOR NEXT WEEKEND A FLATTER
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES TO OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. POPS REMAIN A NO SHOW IN THE FORECAST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A METHODICAL RISE FROM FROM 60S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO 70S AND 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT. A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER
THE AREA AFTER 18Z. LIGHT/VRBL WINDS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. NO FOG ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
AROUND 5 KT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST FOR
THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN...ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. SEAS AROUND
3 TO 5 FT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME 2 TO 4 FEET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY BUT
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS 10-15 KNOTS WILL SUFFICE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY DROPPING
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 191425
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1025 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A SHOT OF AUTUMN TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH A GOOD WARM UP INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. AS A
RESULT ONLY HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE GOING
FORECAST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO AOB 10 KTS. WITH A
THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AROUND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT BECOMES A BIT TRICKY AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SCENARIO SETS UP AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY
SITUATES ITSELF OVERHEAD. WILL SEE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SOME AREAS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...OVERALL BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATING WILL ALLOW A QUICK WARM-UP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FROM 70-75 ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE WARMER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST.
DEEP TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND TIMING LAGS
JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL
BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MONDAYS VALUES BUT 80 DEGREES WILL BE A
STRETCH AND IS NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING.
NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BEYOND THIS FOR NEXT WEEKEND A FLATTER
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES TO OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. POPS REMAIN A NO SHOW IN THE FORECAST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A METHODICAL RISE FROM FROM 60S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO 70S AND 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE NOW WELL
OFFSHORE...AND OTHER THAN AN OCCASIONAL WISP OF CIRRUS...SKC WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTS OF 15+ KT DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 18Z AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
BY 00Z MON. DESPITE THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...
FOG IS NOT A CONCERN GIVEN FCST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM SUNDAY...AS CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WITH SEAS ROUGHLY 4 TO 6 FEET...WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE A SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH 16Z TODAY. BOTH
SEAS AND WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
AND AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE
ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY BUT
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS 10-15 KNOTS WILL SUFFICE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY DROPPING
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 191122
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
722 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A SHOT OF AUTUMN TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH A GOOD WARM UP INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 628 AM SUNDAY...FULL SUN AT HORIZON-RISE EXPECTED AND
UNOBSTRUCTED WITH NO CLOUDS OR FOG/MIST OF NOTE. A BRISK NORTH
WIND WILL GREET THE DAY...AND INITIALLY WIND CHILLS WILL DIP IN
THE 40S AT SUNRISE IN MANY SPOTS. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY
WISPY ENCROACHMENT OF CIRRUS CAUGHT IN QUICK FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
GULF STATES AS THE UPPER PATTERN SNAPS BACK INTO PLACE IN WAKE OF
THE SHARP IMPULSE PASSAGE. DISSIPATION MAY EAT PART OF THE ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PROCESS...SUNNY IS LOOKING
GOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE DAYBREAK UPDATE
AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A DRY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT OFF THE COAST AND NORTH WINDS ARE
USHERING A CHANGE OF AIR EARLY THIS MORNING. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY HAS
DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY AND TEMPERATURE CURVES WILL BOTTOM OUT
AROUND SUNRISE UNDER FULL EARLY SUNSHINE.

AS LOW-LVL WARMING BEGINS TO UNFOLD UNDER COPIOUS SUN...PERKY AND
ENERGETIC BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY PUNCH TO THE
SURFACE... PRODUCING NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH IN THE MID AND
LATE MORNING BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON TO NNW-NW 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SE NC
AND NE SC...A LITTLE MILDER SC INTERIOR AND A SMIDGEN COOLER OVER
OUR NC INTERIOR ZONES AND 70-72 BEACHES.

PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW WE LIKELY WILL SEE SHEETS OF THIN CIRRUS
PASSING OVERHEAD IN A SWIFT WEST TO EAST FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT ON OUR WARMING CLIMB.

A NIPPY ONE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FULL-BORE RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO PROCEED. AS A RESULT A CRISP ONE MONDAY MORNING...WITH MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR COLD POCKETS OF SE NC...AND LOW TO MID
40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DAYBREAK MONDAY...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY CLIMATE STANDARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATING WILL ALLOW A QUICK WARM-UP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FROM 70-75 ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE WARMER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST.
DEEP TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND TIMING LAGS
JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL
BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MONDAYS VALUES BUT 80 DEGREES WILL BE A
STRETCH AND IS NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING.
NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BEYOND THIS FOR NEXT WEEKEND A FLATTER
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES TO OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. POPS REMAIN A NO SHOW IN THE FORECAST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A METHODICAL RISE FROM FROM 60S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO 70S AND 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE NOW WELL
OFFSHORE...AND OTHER THAN AN OCCASIONAL WISP OF CIRRUS...SKC WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTS OF 15+ KT DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 18Z AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
BY 00Z MON. DESPITE THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...
FOG IS NOT A CONCERN GIVEN FCST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 628 AM SUNDAY...ADVISORY FLAGS FLAPPING IN A BRISK N WIND
THIS MORNING ON THE WATERS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY
BEFORE WINDS EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. N 20-25 KT THROUGH NOON AND
HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR 4-6 FEET. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TODAY AS WINDS TAIL OFF TO 10-15
KT. LINGERING GONZALO SWELL WILL INTERACT WITH BUMPY N WIND-SEAS
TO PRODUCE A PITCHY SEA STATE THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY BUT
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS 10-15 KNOTS WILL SUFFICE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY DROPPING
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR











000
FXUS62 KILM 191028
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
628 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A SHOT OF AUTUMN TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH A GOOD WARM UP INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 628 AM SUNDAY...FULL SUN AT HORIZON-RISE EXPECTED AND
UNOBSTRUCTED WITH NO CLOUDS OR FOG/MIST OF NOTE. A BRISK NORTH
WIND WILL GREET THE DAY...AND INITIALLY WIND CHILLS WILL DIP IN
THE 40S AT SUNRISE IN MANY SPOTS. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY
WISPY ENCROACHMENT OF CIRRUS CAUGHT IN QUICK FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
GULF STATES AS THE UPPER PATTERN SNAPS BACK INTO PLACE IN WAKE OF
THE SHARP IMPULSE PASSAGE. DISSIPATION MAY EAT PART OF THE ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PROCESS...SUNNY IS LOOKING
GOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE DAYBREAK UPDATE
AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A DRY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT OFF THE COAST AND NORTH WINDS ARE
USHERING A CHANGE OF AIR EARLY THIS MORNING. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY HAS
DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY AND TEMPERATURE CURVES WILL BOTTOM OUT
AROUND SUNRISE UNDER FULL EARLY SUNSHINE.

AS LOW-LVL WARMING BEGINS TO UNFOLD UNDER COPIOUS SUN...PERKY AND
ENERGETIC BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY PUNCH TO THE
SURFACE... PRODUCING NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH IN THE MID AND
LATE MORNING BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON TO NNW-NW 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SE NC
AND NE SC...A LITTLE MILDER SC INTERIOR AND A SMIDGEN COOLER OVER
OUR NC INTERIOR ZONES AND 70-72 BEACHES.

PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW WE LIKELY WILL SEE SHEETS OF THIN CIRRUS
PASSING OVERHEAD IN A SWIFT WEST TO EAST FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT ON OUR WARMING CLIMB.

A NIPPY ONE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FULL-BORE RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO PROCEED. AS A RESULT A CRISP ONE MONDAY MORNING...WITH MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR COLD POCKETS OF SE NC...AND LOW TO MID
40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DAYBREAK MONDAY...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY CLIMATE STANDARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATING WILL ALLOW A QUICK WARM-UP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FROM 70-75 ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE WARMER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST.
DEEP TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND TIMING LAGS
JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL
BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MONDAYS VALUES BUT 80 DEGREES WILL BE A
STRETCH AND IS NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING.
NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BEYOND THIS FOR NEXT WEEKEND A FLATTER
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES TO OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. POPS REMAIN A NO SHOW IN THE FORECAST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A METHODICAL RISE FROM FROM 60S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO 70S AND 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CLOUDS TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WINDS NORTH
WITH GUSTS 12-18KT AFTER 13Z. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL AROUND 23Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 628 AM SUNDAY...ADVISORY FLAGS FLAPPING IN A BRISK N WIND
THIS MORNING ON THE WATERS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY
BEFORE WINDS EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. N 20-25 KT THROUGH NOON AND
HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR 4-6 FEET. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TODAY AS WINDS TAIL OFF TO 10-15
KT. LINGERING GONZALO SWELL WILL INTERACT WITH BUMPY N WIND-SEAS
TO PRODUCE A PITCHY SEA STATE THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY BUT
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS 10-15 KNOTS WILL SUFFICE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY DROPPING
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC








000
FXUS62 KILM 191028
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
628 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A SHOT OF AUTUMN TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH A GOOD WARM UP INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 628 AM SUNDAY...FULL SUN AT HORIZON-RISE EXPECTED AND
UNOBSTRUCTED WITH NO CLOUDS OR FOG/MIST OF NOTE. A BRISK NORTH
WIND WILL GREET THE DAY...AND INITIALLY WIND CHILLS WILL DIP IN
THE 40S AT SUNRISE IN MANY SPOTS. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY
WISPY ENCROACHMENT OF CIRRUS CAUGHT IN QUICK FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
GULF STATES AS THE UPPER PATTERN SNAPS BACK INTO PLACE IN WAKE OF
THE SHARP IMPULSE PASSAGE. DISSIPATION MAY EAT PART OF THE ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PROCESS...SUNNY IS LOOKING
GOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE DAYBREAK UPDATE
AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A DRY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT OFF THE COAST AND NORTH WINDS ARE
USHERING A CHANGE OF AIR EARLY THIS MORNING. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY HAS
DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY AND TEMPERATURE CURVES WILL BOTTOM OUT
AROUND SUNRISE UNDER FULL EARLY SUNSHINE.

AS LOW-LVL WARMING BEGINS TO UNFOLD UNDER COPIOUS SUN...PERKY AND
ENERGETIC BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY PUNCH TO THE
SURFACE... PRODUCING NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH IN THE MID AND
LATE MORNING BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON TO NNW-NW 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SE NC
AND NE SC...A LITTLE MILDER SC INTERIOR AND A SMIDGEN COOLER OVER
OUR NC INTERIOR ZONES AND 70-72 BEACHES.

PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW WE LIKELY WILL SEE SHEETS OF THIN CIRRUS
PASSING OVERHEAD IN A SWIFT WEST TO EAST FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT ON OUR WARMING CLIMB.

A NIPPY ONE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FULL-BORE RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO PROCEED. AS A RESULT A CRISP ONE MONDAY MORNING...WITH MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR COLD POCKETS OF SE NC...AND LOW TO MID
40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DAYBREAK MONDAY...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY CLIMATE STANDARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATING WILL ALLOW A QUICK WARM-UP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FROM 70-75 ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE WARMER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST.
DEEP TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND TIMING LAGS
JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL
BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MONDAYS VALUES BUT 80 DEGREES WILL BE A
STRETCH AND IS NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING.
NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BEYOND THIS FOR NEXT WEEKEND A FLATTER
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES TO OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. POPS REMAIN A NO SHOW IN THE FORECAST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A METHODICAL RISE FROM FROM 60S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO 70S AND 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CLOUDS TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WINDS NORTH
WITH GUSTS 12-18KT AFTER 13Z. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL AROUND 23Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 628 AM SUNDAY...ADVISORY FLAGS FLAPPING IN A BRISK N WIND
THIS MORNING ON THE WATERS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY
BEFORE WINDS EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. N 20-25 KT THROUGH NOON AND
HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR 4-6 FEET. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TODAY AS WINDS TAIL OFF TO 10-15
KT. LINGERING GONZALO SWELL WILL INTERACT WITH BUMPY N WIND-SEAS
TO PRODUCE A PITCHY SEA STATE THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY BUT
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS 10-15 KNOTS WILL SUFFICE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY DROPPING
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC







000
FXUS62 KILM 190755
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
355 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH WINDS WILL BRING AN AUTUMN CHILL LASTING INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY SHOT
OF COLDER AIR THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT OFF THE COAST
AND NORTH WINDS ARE USHERING A CHANGE OF AIR EARLY THIS MORNING.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY AND TEMPERATURE
CURVES WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND SUNRISE UNDER FULL EARLY SUNSHINE.

AS LOW-LVL WARMING BEGINS TO UNFOLD UNDER COPIOUS SUN...PERKY AND
ENERGETIC BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY PUNCH TO THE
SURFACE... PRODUCING NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH IN THE MID AND
LATE MORNING BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON TO NNW-NW 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SE NC
AND NE SC...A LITTLE MILDER SC INTERIOR AND A SMIDGEN COOLER OVER
OUR NC INTERIOR ZONES AND 70-72 BEACHES.

PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW WE LIKELY WILL SEE SHEETS OF THIN CIRRUS
PASSING OVERHEAD IN A SWIFT WEST TO EAST FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT ON OUR WARMING CLIMB.

A NIPPY ONE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FULL-BORE RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO PROCEED. AS A RESULT A CRISP ONE MONDAY MORNING...WITH MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR COLD POCKETS OF SE NC...AND LOW TO MID
40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DAYBREAK MONDAY...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY CLIMATE STANDARDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATING WILL ALLOW A QUICK WARMUP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FROM 70-75 ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE WARMER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST.
DEEP TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND TIMING LAGS
JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL
BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MONDAYS VALUES BUT 80 DEGREES WILL BE A
STRETCH AND IS NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING.
NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BEYOND THIS FOR NEXT WEEKEND A FLATTER
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES TO OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. POPS REMAIN A NO SHOW IN THE FORECAST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A METHODICAL RISE FROM FROM 60S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO 70S AND 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CLOUDS TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WINDS NORTH
WITH GUSTS 12-18KT AFTER 13Z. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL AROUND 23Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...ADVISORY FLAGS FLAPPING IN A BRISK N WIND THIS
MORNING ON THE WATERS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY BEFORE
WINDS RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON. N 20-25 KT THROUGH NOON...HIGHEST SEAS
OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR 5-6 FEET. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATER TODAY AS WINDS TAIL OFF TO NE 5-10 KT LATE TNGT.
LINGERING GONZALO SWELL WILL INTERACT WITH BUMPY N WIND-SEAS TO
PRODUCE A PITCHY SEA STATE THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY BUT
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS 10-15 KNOTS WILL SUFFICE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY DROPPING
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/MRR











000
FXUS62 KILM 190755
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
355 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH WINDS WILL BRING AN AUTUMN CHILL LASTING INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY SHOT
OF COLDER AIR THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT OFF THE COAST
AND NORTH WINDS ARE USHERING A CHANGE OF AIR EARLY THIS MORNING.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY AND TEMPERATURE
CURVES WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND SUNRISE UNDER FULL EARLY SUNSHINE.

AS LOW-LVL WARMING BEGINS TO UNFOLD UNDER COPIOUS SUN...PERKY AND
ENERGETIC BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY PUNCH TO THE
SURFACE... PRODUCING NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH IN THE MID AND
LATE MORNING BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON TO NNW-NW 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SE NC
AND NE SC...A LITTLE MILDER SC INTERIOR AND A SMIDGEN COOLER OVER
OUR NC INTERIOR ZONES AND 70-72 BEACHES.

PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW WE LIKELY WILL SEE SHEETS OF THIN CIRRUS
PASSING OVERHEAD IN A SWIFT WEST TO EAST FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT ON OUR WARMING CLIMB.

A NIPPY ONE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FULL-BORE RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO PROCEED. AS A RESULT A CRISP ONE MONDAY MORNING...WITH MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR COLD POCKETS OF SE NC...AND LOW TO MID
40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DAYBREAK MONDAY...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY CLIMATE STANDARDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATING WILL ALLOW A QUICK WARMUP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FROM 70-75 ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE WARMER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST.
DEEP TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND TIMING LAGS
JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL
BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MONDAYS VALUES BUT 80 DEGREES WILL BE A
STRETCH AND IS NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING.
NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BEYOND THIS FOR NEXT WEEKEND A FLATTER
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES TO OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. POPS REMAIN A NO SHOW IN THE FORECAST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A METHODICAL RISE FROM FROM 60S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO 70S AND 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CLOUDS TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WINDS NORTH
WITH GUSTS 12-18KT AFTER 13Z. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL AROUND 23Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...ADVISORY FLAGS FLAPPING IN A BRISK N WIND THIS
MORNING ON THE WATERS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY BEFORE
WINDS RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON. N 20-25 KT THROUGH NOON...HIGHEST SEAS
OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR 5-6 FEET. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATER TODAY AS WINDS TAIL OFF TO NE 5-10 KT LATE TNGT.
LINGERING GONZALO SWELL WILL INTERACT WITH BUMPY N WIND-SEAS TO
PRODUCE A PITCHY SEA STATE THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY BUT
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS 10-15 KNOTS WILL SUFFICE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY DROPPING
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/MRR












000
FXUS62 KILM 190718
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
318 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH WINDS WILL BRING AN AUTUMN CHILL LASTING INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY SHOT OF
COLDER AIR THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT OFF THE COAST
AND NORTH WINDS ARE USHERING A CHANGE OF AIR EARLY THIS MORNING.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY AND TEMPERATURE
CURVES WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND SUNRISE UNDER FULL EARLY SUNSHINE.

AS LOW-LVL WARMING BEGINS TO UNFOLD UNDER COPIOUS SUN...PERKY AND
ENERGETIC BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY PUNCH TO THE
SURFACE... PRODUCING NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH IN THE MID AND
LATE MORNING BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON TO NNW-NW 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SE NC
AND NE SC...A LITTLE MILDER SC INTERIOR AND A SMIDGEN COOLER OVER
OUR NC INTERIOR ZONES AND 70-72 BEACHES.

PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW WE LIKELY WILL SEE SHEETS OF THIN CIRRUS
PASSING OVERHEAD IN A SWIFT WEST TO EAST FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD HAVE HAVE MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT ON OUR WARMING CLIMB.

A NIPPY ONE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FULL-BORE RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO PROCEED. AS A RESULT A CRISP ONE MONDAY MORNING...WITH MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR COLD POCKETS OF SE NC...AND LOW TO MID
40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DAYBREAK MONDAY...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY CLIMATE STANDARDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATING WILL ALLOW A QUICK WARMUP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FROM 70-75 ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE WARMER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST.
DEEP TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND TIMING LAGS
JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL
BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MONDAYS VALUES BUT 80 DEGREES WILL BE A
STRETCH AND IS NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING.
NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BEYOND THIS FOR NEXT WEEKEND A FLATTER
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES TO OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. POPS REMAIN A NO SHOW IN THE FORECAST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A METHODICAL RISE FROM FROM 60S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO 70S AND 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CLOUDS TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WINDS NORTH
WITH GUSTS 12-18KT AFTER 13Z. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL AROUND 23Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...ADVISORY FLAGS FLAPPING A BRISK N WIND THIS
MORNING ON THE WATERS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY BEFORE
WINDS RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON. N 20-25 KT THROUGH NOON...HIGHEST
SEAS OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR 5-6 FEET. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2
TO 4 FEET LATER TODAY AS WINDS TAIL OFF TO NE 5-10 KT LATE TNGT.
LINGERING GONZALO SWELL WILL INTERACT WITH BUMPY N WIND-SEAS TO
PRODUCE A PITCHY SEA STATE THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY BUT
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS 10-15 KNOTS WILL SUFFICE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY DROPPING
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 190718
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
318 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH WINDS WILL BRING AN AUTUMN CHILL LASTING INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY SHOT OF
COLDER AIR THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT OFF THE COAST
AND NORTH WINDS ARE USHERING A CHANGE OF AIR EARLY THIS MORNING.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY AND TEMPERATURE
CURVES WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND SUNRISE UNDER FULL EARLY SUNSHINE.

AS LOW-LVL WARMING BEGINS TO UNFOLD UNDER COPIOUS SUN...PERKY AND
ENERGETIC BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY PUNCH TO THE
SURFACE... PRODUCING NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH IN THE MID AND
LATE MORNING BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON TO NNW-NW 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SE NC
AND NE SC...A LITTLE MILDER SC INTERIOR AND A SMIDGEN COOLER OVER
OUR NC INTERIOR ZONES AND 70-72 BEACHES.

PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW WE LIKELY WILL SEE SHEETS OF THIN CIRRUS
PASSING OVERHEAD IN A SWIFT WEST TO EAST FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD HAVE HAVE MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT ON OUR WARMING CLIMB.

A NIPPY ONE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FULL-BORE RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO PROCEED. AS A RESULT A CRISP ONE MONDAY MORNING...WITH MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR COLD POCKETS OF SE NC...AND LOW TO MID
40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DAYBREAK MONDAY...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY CLIMATE STANDARDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATING WILL ALLOW A QUICK WARMUP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FROM 70-75 ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE WARMER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST.
DEEP TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND TIMING LAGS
JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL
BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MONDAYS VALUES BUT 80 DEGREES WILL BE A
STRETCH AND IS NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING.
NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BEYOND THIS FOR NEXT WEEKEND A FLATTER
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES TO OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. POPS REMAIN A NO SHOW IN THE FORECAST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A METHODICAL RISE FROM FROM 60S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO 70S AND 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CLOUDS TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WINDS NORTH
WITH GUSTS 12-18KT AFTER 13Z. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL AROUND 23Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...ADVISORY FLAGS FLAPPING A BRISK N WIND THIS
MORNING ON THE WATERS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY BEFORE
WINDS RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON. N 20-25 KT THROUGH NOON...HIGHEST
SEAS OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR 5-6 FEET. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2
TO 4 FEET LATER TODAY AS WINDS TAIL OFF TO NE 5-10 KT LATE TNGT.
LINGERING GONZALO SWELL WILL INTERACT WITH BUMPY N WIND-SEAS TO
PRODUCE A PITCHY SEA STATE THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY BUT
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS 10-15 KNOTS WILL SUFFICE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY DROPPING
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 190550
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
150 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOL CONDITIONS ON NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT
WITH AN AUTUMN CHILL LASTING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...RADAR IMAGERY PICKING UP THE COLD FRONT AS
IT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
MOVED THROUGH ILM AT ABOUT 0050Z AND MOVED THROUGH SUT AT 0130Z.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CKI AND MYR AND THEN CLEAR THE
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREA BY 0230Z.

A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST BEGINNING TO CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE LATE THIS EVE. WE EXPECT
THIS NOTABLE FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL USHER IN A DECIDEDLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS.

THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BUT
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...IT MAY GENERATE A FEW BRIEF
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5-6 KFT WERE SOLIDLY BANKED UP ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVE AND WILL STRUGGLE TO PROGRESS FURTHER
EASTWARD. HOWEVER MODEL PROFILES SHOW A PRONOUNCED FRONTAL INVERSION
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SATURATION IN THE 5-10 KFT LAYER. THUS EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH MAY BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
AT SUNRISE THROUGHOUT.

AS COLD AND DRY ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENS...WE EXPECT
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...UP TO 10 TO 15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
FROM GAINING A STRONG FOOTHOLD. HOWEVER...ADVECTION ALONE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO DROP TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. A FEW MID 40S ARE
POSSIBLE FROM BBP TO EYF NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY UNTIL ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS ABOUT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
SUNDAY WITH CAA ON NW FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SO LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE WITH
ABUNDANT SUN AND LIGHT S TO SE WINDS. UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE ON TAP. NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A STRAY
SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DIGGING 5H TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
STATES MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING LATER TUE WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO WED AND THU.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TUE ABOVE
CLIMO. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY BUT
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PATCHY
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND FROPA...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP
SEEMS UNLIKELY. DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH FROPA.
CLOSED 5H LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE NJ COAST THU AND HEADS NORTHEAST
FRI. THIS WILL COMMENCE A PERIOD OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION FRI AND SAT
WITH TEMPS CREEPING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO. CONTINUED DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CLOUDS TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WINDS NORTH
WITH GUSTS 12-18KT AFTER 13Z. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL AROUND 23Z.

EXTENDEDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH
AND EXPECT NORTH WINDS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY 0330Z. A WELL MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. THIS DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS
UP TO 4 TO 6 FT. SEAS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER WHERE THE FETCH IS
GREATLY REDUCED ON NORTH WINDS AND THIS INCLUDES LONG BAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...OUTSIDE A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT
BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KT EARLY SUNDAY WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT BY SUNSET AND TURN
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE SE MONDAY
AND S TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS INVOF 10 KT. SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT
EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUNSET. SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FEET ARE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUE WILL BACK TO
NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. INCREASED GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH COLD
ADVECTION WILL BUMP WIND SPEEDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WED AND WED NIGHT.
GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR WED AND THU WITH INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.
NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH ONLY POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT
BEING IN THE VICINITY OF 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MJC








000
FXUS62 KILM 190203
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1003 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOL CONDITIONS ON NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT...
WITH AN AUTUMN CHILL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...RADAR IMAGERY PICKING UP THE COLD FRONT AS
IT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
MOVED THROUGH ILM AT ABOUT 0050Z AND MOVED THROUGH SUT AT 0130Z. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CKI AND MYR AND THEN CLEAR THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREA BY 0230Z.

A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST BEGINNING TO CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE LATE THIS EVE. WE EXPECT
THIS NOTABLE FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL USHER IN A DECIDEDLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS.

THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BUT
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...IT MAY GENERATE A FEW BRIEF
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5-6 KFT WERE SOLIDLY BANKED UP ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVE AND WILL STRUGGLE TO PROGRESS FURTHER
EASTWARD. HOWEVER MODEL PROFILES SHOW A PRONOUNCED FRONTAL INVERSION
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SATURATION IN THE 5-10 KFT LAYER. THUS EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH MAY BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
AT SUNRISE THROUGHOUT.

AS COLD AND DRY ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENS...WE EXPECT
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...UP TO 10 TO 15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
FROM GAINING A STRONG FOOTHOLD. HOWEVER...ADVECTION ALONE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO DROP TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. A FEW MID 40S ARE
POSSIBLE FROM BBP TO EYF NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY UNTIL ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS ABOUT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
SUNDAY WITH CAA ON NW FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SO LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE WITH
ABUNDANT SUN AND LIGHT S TO SE WINDS. UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE ON TAP. NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A STRAY
SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DIGGING 5H TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
STATES MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING LATER TUE WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO WED AND THU.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TUE ABOVE
CLIMO. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY BUT
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PATCHY
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND FROPA...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP
SEEMS UNLIKELY. DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH FROPA.
CLOSED 5H LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE NJ COAST THU AND HEADS NORTHEAST
FRI. THIS WILL COMMENCE A PERIOD OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION FRI AND SAT
WITH TEMPS CREEPING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO. CONTINUED DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AT
KFLO/KLBT AND AFTER MIDNIGHT Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
NW-N AFTER FROPA. WIND BECOME PREDOMINATELY N AND SPEEDS INCREASE
WITH SOME GUSTINESS BY 13Z...BUT GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE BY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH
AND EXPECT NORTH WINDS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY 0330Z. A WELL MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. THIS DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS
UP TO 4 TO 6 FT. SEAS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER WHERE THE FETCH IS
GREATLY REDUCED ON NORTH WINDS AND THIS INCLUDES LONG BAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...OUTSIDE A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT
BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KT EARLY SUNDAY WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT BY SUNSET AND TURN
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE SE MONDAY
AND S TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS INVOF 10 KT. SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT
EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUNSET. SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FEET ARE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUE WILL BACK TO
NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. INCREASED GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH COLD
ADVECTION WILL BUMP WIND SPEEDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WED AND WED NIGHT.
GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR WED AND THU WITH INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.
NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH ONLY POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT
BEING IN THE VICINITY OF 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 190203
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1003 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOL CONDITIONS ON NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT...
WITH AN AUTUMN CHILL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...RADAR IMAGERY PICKING UP THE COLD FRONT AS
IT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
MOVED THROUGH ILM AT ABOUT 0050Z AND MOVED THROUGH SUT AT 0130Z. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CKI AND MYR AND THEN CLEAR THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREA BY 0230Z.

A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST BEGINNING TO CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE LATE THIS EVE. WE EXPECT
THIS NOTABLE FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL USHER IN A DECIDEDLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS.

THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BUT
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...IT MAY GENERATE A FEW BRIEF
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5-6 KFT WERE SOLIDLY BANKED UP ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVE AND WILL STRUGGLE TO PROGRESS FURTHER
EASTWARD. HOWEVER MODEL PROFILES SHOW A PRONOUNCED FRONTAL INVERSION
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SATURATION IN THE 5-10 KFT LAYER. THUS EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH MAY BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
AT SUNRISE THROUGHOUT.

AS COLD AND DRY ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENS...WE EXPECT
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...UP TO 10 TO 15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
FROM GAINING A STRONG FOOTHOLD. HOWEVER...ADVECTION ALONE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO DROP TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. A FEW MID 40S ARE
POSSIBLE FROM BBP TO EYF NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY UNTIL ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS ABOUT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
SUNDAY WITH CAA ON NW FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SO LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE WITH
ABUNDANT SUN AND LIGHT S TO SE WINDS. UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE ON TAP. NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A STRAY
SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DIGGING 5H TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
STATES MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING LATER TUE WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO WED AND THU.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TUE ABOVE
CLIMO. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY BUT
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PATCHY
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND FROPA...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP
SEEMS UNLIKELY. DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH FROPA.
CLOSED 5H LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE NJ COAST THU AND HEADS NORTHEAST
FRI. THIS WILL COMMENCE A PERIOD OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION FRI AND SAT
WITH TEMPS CREEPING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO. CONTINUED DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AT
KFLO/KLBT AND AFTER MIDNIGHT Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
NW-N AFTER FROPA. WIND BECOME PREDOMINATELY N AND SPEEDS INCREASE
WITH SOME GUSTINESS BY 13Z...BUT GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE BY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH
AND EXPECT NORTH WINDS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY 0330Z. A WELL MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. THIS DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS
UP TO 4 TO 6 FT. SEAS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER WHERE THE FETCH IS
GREATLY REDUCED ON NORTH WINDS AND THIS INCLUDES LONG BAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...OUTSIDE A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT
BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KT EARLY SUNDAY WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT BY SUNSET AND TURN
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE SE MONDAY
AND S TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS INVOF 10 KT. SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT
EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUNSET. SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FEET ARE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUE WILL BACK TO
NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. INCREASED GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH COLD
ADVECTION WILL BUMP WIND SPEEDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WED AND WED NIGHT.
GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR WED AND THU WITH INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.
NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH ONLY POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT
BEING IN THE VICINITY OF 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR






000
FXUS62 KILM 190116
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
916 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOL CONDITIONS ON NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT...
WITH AN AUTUMN CHILL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A JET STREAK MOVING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
PIVOTING ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN A DECIDEDLY COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BUT
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...IT MAY GENERATE A FEW BRIEF
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5-6 KFT ARE STRUGGLING TO CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS THIS EVE. AS A FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPS...MODEL
PROFILES SHOW A PERIOD OF SATURATION IN THE 5-10 KFT LAYER. THUS
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH MAY
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR AT SUNRISE THROUGHOUT.

AS COLD AND DRY ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENS...WE EXPECT
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...UP TO 10 TO 15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
FROM GAINING A STRONG FOOTHOLD. HOWEVER...ADVECTION ALONE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO DROP TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. A FEW MID 40S ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 WHERE THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL
ARRIVE FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY UNTIL ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS ABOUT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
SUNDAY WITH CAA ON NW FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SO LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE WITH
ABUNDANT SUN AND LIGHT S TO SE WINDS. UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE ON TAP. NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A STRAY
SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DIGGING 5H TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
STATES MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING LATER TUE WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO WED AND THU.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TUE ABOVE
CLIMO. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY BUT
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PATCHY
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND FROPA...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP
SEEMS UNLIKELY. DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH FROPA.
CLOSED 5H LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE NJ COAST THU AND HEADS NORTHEAST
FRI. THIS WILL COMMENCE A PERIOD OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION FRI AND SAT
WITH TEMPS CREEPING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO. CONTINUED DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AT
KFLO/KLBT AND AFTER MIDNIGHT Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
NW-N AFTER FROPA. WIND BECOME PREDOMINATELY N AND SPEEDS INCREASE
WITH SOME GUSTINESS BY 13Z...BUT GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE BY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS
EVE AND A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KT. THIS DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP TO 4 TO
6 FT. SEAS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER WHERE THE FETCH IS GREATLY
REDUCED ON NORTH WINDS AND THIS INCLUDES LONG BAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...OUTSIDE A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT
BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KT EARLY SUNDAY WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT BY SUNSET AND TURN
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE SE MONDAY
AND S TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS INVOF 10 KT. SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT
EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUNSET. SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FEET ARE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUE WILL BACK TO
NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. INCREASED GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH COLD
ADVECTION WILL BUMP WIND SPEEDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WED AND WED NIGHT.
GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR WED AND THU WITH INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.
NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH ONLY POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT
BEING IN THE VICINITY OF 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 190037
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
837 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING AN AUTUMN CHILL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR...MAINTAINING FALL WEATHER MIDDLE
THROUGH LATE WEEK. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A JET STREAK MOVING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
PIVOTING ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN A DECIDEDLY COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BUT
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...IT MAY GENERATE A FEW BRIEF
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5-6 KFT ARE STRUGGLING TO CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS THIS EVE. AS A FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPS...MODEL
PROFILES SHOW A PERIOD OF SATURATION IN THE 5-10 KFT LAYER. THUS
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH MAY
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AT SUNRISE THROUGHOUT.

AS COLD AND DRY ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENS...WE EXPECT
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...UP TO 10 TO 15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
FROM GAINING A STRONG FOOTHOLD. HOWEVER...ADVECTION ALONE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO DROP TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. A FEW MID 40S ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 WHERE THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL
ARRIVE FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY UNTIL ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS ABOUT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
SUNDAY WITH CAA ON NW FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SO LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE WITH
ABUNDANT SUN AND LIGHT S TO SE WINDS. UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE ON TAP. NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A STRAY
SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DIGGING 5H TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
STATES MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING LATER TUE WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO WED AND THU.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TUE ABOVE
CLIMO. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY BUT
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PATCHY
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND FROPA...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP
SEEMS UNLIKELY. DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH FROPA.
CLOSED 5H LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE NJ COAST THU AND HEADS NORTHEAST
FRI. THIS WILL COMMENCE A PERIOD OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION FRI AND SAT
WITH TEMPS CREEPING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO. CONTINUED DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AT
KFLO/KLBT AND AFTER MIDNIGHT Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
NW-N AFTER FROPA. WIND BECOME PREDOMINATELY N AND SPEEDS INCREASE
WITH SOME GUSTINESS BY 13Z...BUT GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE BY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS
EVE AND A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KT. THIS DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP TO 4 TO
6 FT. SEAS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER WHERE THE FETCH IS GREATLY
REDUCED ON NORTH WINDS AND THIS INCLUDES LONG BAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...OUTSIDE A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT
BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KT EARLY SUNDAY WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT BY SUNSET AND TURN
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE SE MONDAY
AND S TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS INVOF 10 KT. SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT
EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUNSET. SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FEET ARE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUE WILL BACK TO
NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. INCREASED GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH COLD
ADVECTION WILL BUMP WIND SPEEDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WED AND WED NIGHT.
GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR WED AND THU WITH INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.
NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH ONLY POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT
BEING IN THE VICINITY OF 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 190037
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
837 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING AN AUTUMN CHILL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR...MAINTAINING FALL WEATHER MIDDLE
THROUGH LATE WEEK. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A JET STREAK MOVING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
PIVOTING ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN A DECIDEDLY COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BUT
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...IT MAY GENERATE A FEW BRIEF
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5-6 KFT ARE STRUGGLING TO CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS THIS EVE. AS A FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPS...MODEL
PROFILES SHOW A PERIOD OF SATURATION IN THE 5-10 KFT LAYER. THUS
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH MAY
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AT SUNRISE THROUGHOUT.

AS COLD AND DRY ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENS...WE EXPECT
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...UP TO 10 TO 15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
FROM GAINING A STRONG FOOTHOLD. HOWEVER...ADVECTION ALONE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO DROP TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. A FEW MID 40S ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 WHERE THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL
ARRIVE FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY UNTIL ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS ABOUT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
SUNDAY WITH CAA ON NW FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SO LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE WITH
ABUNDANT SUN AND LIGHT S TO SE WINDS. UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE ON TAP. NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A STRAY
SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DIGGING 5H TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
STATES MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING LATER TUE WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO WED AND THU.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TUE ABOVE
CLIMO. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY BUT
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PATCHY
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND FROPA...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP
SEEMS UNLIKELY. DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH FROPA.
CLOSED 5H LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE NJ COAST THU AND HEADS NORTHEAST
FRI. THIS WILL COMMENCE A PERIOD OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION FRI AND SAT
WITH TEMPS CREEPING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO. CONTINUED DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AT
KFLO/KLBT AND AFTER MIDNIGHT Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
NW-N AFTER FROPA. WIND BECOME PREDOMINATELY N AND SPEEDS INCREASE
WITH SOME GUSTINESS BY 13Z...BUT GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE BY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS
EVE AND A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KT. THIS DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP TO 4 TO
6 FT. SEAS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER WHERE THE FETCH IS GREATLY
REDUCED ON NORTH WINDS AND THIS INCLUDES LONG BAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...OUTSIDE A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT
BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KT EARLY SUNDAY WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT BY SUNSET AND TURN
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE SE MONDAY
AND S TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS INVOF 10 KT. SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT
EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUNSET. SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FEET ARE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUE WILL BACK TO
NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. INCREASED GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH COLD
ADVECTION WILL BUMP WIND SPEEDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WED AND WED NIGHT.
GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR WED AND THU WITH INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.
NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH ONLY POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT
BEING IN THE VICINITY OF 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR






000
FXUS62 KILM 182314
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
714 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING AN AUTUMN CHILL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR...MAINTAINING FALL WEATHER MIDDLE
THROUGH LATE WEEK. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE U.S. THIS AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. MODELS
TAKE A MID- LEVEL S/W TROF IE. 5H VORT...WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROF...AND ROTATE IT ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF THE 5H S/W TROF...WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WELL OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VARIOUS MODEL TIME
HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR THIS AFTN THRU SUNDAY FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FA...INDICATE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THUS WILL KEEP A MOSTLY CLEAR FCST LEADING UP TO ITS PASSAGE.
MODELS DO INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY BELOW 800MB
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER S/W TROF. THE UVVS AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORT AND POST COLD FRONTAL CAA SURGE...WILL AID IN SCT POSSIBLY
BKN CU/SC CLOUDS OR LOW AC CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. NVA TO OCCUR BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY AND WILL COMBINE WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND TRAJECTORY
NEARLY THRU THE ENTIRE ATM COLUMN...AND SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING
MOISTURE IN THE ATM. LOOK FOR MUCH IMPROVED SKY CONDITIONS AROUND
AND AFTER DAYBREAK SUN. CONSENSUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 50-55 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY UNTIL ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS ABOUT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
SUNDAY WITH CAA ON NW FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SO LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE WITH
ABUNDANT SUN AND LIGHT S TO SE WINDS. UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE ON TAP. NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A STRAY
SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...DIGGING 5H TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
STATES MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING LATER TUE WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO WED AND THU.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TUE ABOVE
CLIMO. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY BUT
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PATCHY
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND FROPA...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP
SEEMS UNLIKELY. DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH FROPA.
CLOSED 5H LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE NJ COAST THU AND HEADS NORTHEAST
FRI. THIS WILL COMMENCE A PERIOD OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION FRI AND SAT
WITH TEMPS CREEPING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO. CONTINUED DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AT
KFLO/KLBT AND AFTER MIDNIGHT Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
NW-N AFTER FROPA. WIND BECOME PREDOMINATELY N AND SPEEDS INCREASE
WITH SOME GUSTINESS BY 13Z...BUT GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE BY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JUST THE ILM
NC WATERS ONLY...LEADING UP TO THE SCA THAT STARTS AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS. ALL WATERS WILL OBSERVE WESTERLY WINDS 10-15
KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER ILM NC WATERS.
THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE SE IS SLATED TO PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS AT...OR UP TO AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER SUNSET. THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE WELL OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. POST COLD FRONTAL WINDS WILL
INITIALLY VEER TO THE NW-N INITIALLY AT 15 KT...THEN QUICKLY PICK UP
TO NNW-NNE AT 15-25 KT BY AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS FROM A TIGHTENED SFC PG AND THE
DELAY OF THE CAA SURGE. EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE LOW TO MID 70S
SSTS COULD AID IN PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FOR A PERIOD.

A DECAYING GONZALO SWELL AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE TO
CREATE 2 TO 4 FOOT SIGNIFICANT SEAS REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS PARTICULARLY
OFF CAPE FEAR. FOR TONIGHT...WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT AS GONZALO SWELL CONTINUES ITS DECAYING TREND ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. LOOK FOR SIG. SEAS TO REACH 3 TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT. THE
HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE TO OCCUR OFF CAPE FEAR...AND THE OUTER
WATERS OFF FROM WINYAH BAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...OUTSIDE A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT
BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KT EARLY SUNDAY WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT BY SUNSET AND TURN
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE SE MONDAY
AND S TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS INVOF 10 KT. SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT
EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUNSET. SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FEET ARE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUE WILL BACK TO
NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. INCREASED GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH COLD
ADVECTION WILL BUMP WIND SPEEDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WED AND WED NIGHT.
GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR WED AND THU WITH INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.
NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH ONLY POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT
BEING IN THE VICINITY OF 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...XXXI
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 182314
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
714 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING AN AUTUMN CHILL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR...MAINTAINING FALL WEATHER MIDDLE
THROUGH LATE WEEK. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE U.S. THIS AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. MODELS
TAKE A MID- LEVEL S/W TROF IE. 5H VORT...WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROF...AND ROTATE IT ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF THE 5H S/W TROF...WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WELL OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VARIOUS MODEL TIME
HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR THIS AFTN THRU SUNDAY FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FA...INDICATE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THUS WILL KEEP A MOSTLY CLEAR FCST LEADING UP TO ITS PASSAGE.
MODELS DO INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY BELOW 800MB
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER S/W TROF. THE UVVS AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORT AND POST COLD FRONTAL CAA SURGE...WILL AID IN SCT POSSIBLY
BKN CU/SC CLOUDS OR LOW AC CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. NVA TO OCCUR BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY AND WILL COMBINE WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND TRAJECTORY
NEARLY THRU THE ENTIRE ATM COLUMN...AND SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING
MOISTURE IN THE ATM. LOOK FOR MUCH IMPROVED SKY CONDITIONS AROUND
AND AFTER DAYBREAK SUN. CONSENSUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 50-55 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY UNTIL ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS ABOUT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
SUNDAY WITH CAA ON NW FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SO LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE WITH
ABUNDANT SUN AND LIGHT S TO SE WINDS. UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE ON TAP. NO RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A STRAY
SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...DIGGING 5H TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
STATES MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING LATER TUE WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO WED AND THU.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TUE ABOVE
CLIMO. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY BUT
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PATCHY
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND FROPA...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP
SEEMS UNLIKELY. DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH FROPA.
CLOSED 5H LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE NJ COAST THU AND HEADS NORTHEAST
FRI. THIS WILL COMMENCE A PERIOD OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION FRI AND SAT
WITH TEMPS CREEPING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO. CONTINUED DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AT
KFLO/KLBT AND AFTER MIDNIGHT Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
NW-N AFTER FROPA. WIND BECOME PREDOMINATELY N AND SPEEDS INCREASE
WITH SOME GUSTINESS BY 13Z...BUT GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE BY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JUST THE ILM
NC WATERS ONLY...LEADING UP TO THE SCA THAT STARTS AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS. ALL WATERS WILL OBSERVE WESTERLY WINDS 10-15
KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER ILM NC WATERS.
THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE SE IS SLATED TO PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS AT...OR UP TO AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER SUNSET. THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE WELL OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. POST COLD FRONTAL WINDS WILL
INITIALLY VEER TO THE NW-N INITIALLY AT 15 KT...THEN QUICKLY PICK UP
TO NNW-NNE AT 15-25 KT BY AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS FROM A TIGHTENED SFC PG AND THE
DELAY OF THE CAA SURGE. EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE LOW TO MID 70S
SSTS COULD AID IN PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FOR A PERIOD.

A DECAYING GONZALO SWELL AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE TO
CREATE 2 TO 4 FOOT SIGNIFICANT SEAS REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS PARTICULARLY
OFF CAPE FEAR. FOR TONIGHT...WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT AS GONZALO SWELL CONTINUES ITS DECAYING TREND ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. LOOK FOR SIG. SEAS TO REACH 3 TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT. THE
HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE TO OCCUR OFF CAPE FEAR...AND THE OUTER
WATERS OFF FROM WINYAH BAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...OUTSIDE A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT
BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KT EARLY SUNDAY WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT BY SUNSET AND TURN
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE SE MONDAY
AND S TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS INVOF 10 KT. SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT
EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUNSET. SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FEET ARE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUE WILL BACK TO
NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. INCREASED GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH COLD
ADVECTION WILL BUMP WIND SPEEDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WED AND WED NIGHT.
GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR WED AND THU WITH INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.
NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH ONLY POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT
BEING IN THE VICINITY OF 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...XXXI
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 181938
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
338 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING AN AUTUMN CHILL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR...MAINTAINING FALL WEATHER MIDDLE
THROUGH LATE WEEK. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE U.S. THIS AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. MODELS TAKE A
MID-LEVEL S/W TROF IE. 5H VORT...WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROF...AND
ROTATE IT ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. AT
THE SFC...MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE 5H S/W
TROF...WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WELL OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR THIS
AFTN THRU SUNDAY FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...INDICATE VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THUS WILL KEEP A MOSTLY CLEAR
FCST LEADING UP TO ITS PASSAGE. MODELS DO INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE ESPECIALLY BELOW 800MB ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER S/W TROF. THE
UVVS AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT AND POST COLD FRONTAL CAA
SURGE...WILL AID IN SCT POSSIBLY BKN CU/SC CLOUDS OR LOW AC CLOUDS
LATER TONIGHT. NVA TO OCCUR BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AND WILL COMBINE WITH
A DOWNSLOPE WIND TRAJECTORY NEARLY THRU THE ENTIRE ATM COLUMN...AND
SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE ATM. LOOK FOR MUCH IMPROVED
SKY CONDITIONS AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK SUN. CONSENSUS MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50-55 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
UNTIL ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS ABOUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF MONDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES SUNDAY WITH
CAA ON NW FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT SO LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL WARM TO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE WITH ABUNDANT SUN
AND LIGHT S TO SE WINDS. UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE ON TAP. NO RAIN IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A STRAY SHOWER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...DIGGING 5H TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
STATES MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING LATER TUE WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO WED AND THU.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TUE ABOVE
CLIMO. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY BUT
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PATCHY
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND FROPA...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP
SEEMS UNLIKELY. DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH FROPA.
CLOSED 5H LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE NJ COAST THU AND HEADS NORTHEAST
FRI. THIS WILL COMMENCE A PERIOD OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION FRI AND SAT
WITH TEMPS CREEPING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO. CONTINUED DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID ISSUANCE PERIOD. A CFP IS SLATED TO OCCUR AFTER 22-23Z
FOR KFLO/KLBT...AND 00-01Z AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR TERMINALS. IT WILL BE
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
FOR ONLY FEW/SCT CU/SC OR LOW AC JUST PRIOR AND IMMEDIATELY AFTER
THE CFP. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT
THE COASTAL TERMS MAY OBSERVE SW 10 KT DUE TO A PINNED SEA BREEZE.
ALL TERMS WILL SEE A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND 10 KT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15 KT POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS CAA SURGE COMES INTO PLAY.
PLUMMETING DEWPOINTS AND STRONG SURFACE WINDS INDICATE FOG WILL NOT
BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH NORTH WINDS 10 KT
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JUST THE ILM
NC WATERS ONLY...LEADING UP TO THE SCA THAT STARTS AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS. ALL WATERS WILL OBSERVE WESTERLY WINDS 10-15
KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER ILM NC WATERS.
THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE SE IS SLATED TO PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS AT...OR UP TO AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER SUNSET. THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE WELL OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. POST COLD FRONTAL WINDS WILL
INITIALLY VEER TO THE NW-N INITIALLY AT 15 KT...THEN QUICKLY PICK UP
TO NNW-NNE AT 15-25 KT BY AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS FROM A TIGHTENED SFC PG AND THE
DELAY OF THE CAA SURGE. EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE LOW TO MID 70S
SSTS COULD AID IN PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FOR A PERIOD.

A DECAYING GONZALO SWELL AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE TO
CREATE 2 TO 4 FOOT SIGNIFICANT SEAS REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS PARTICULARLY
OFF CAPE FEAR. FOR TONIGHT...WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT AS GONZALO SWELL CONTINUES ITS DECAYING TREND ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. LOOK FOR SIG. SEAS TO REACH 3 TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT. THE
HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE TO OCCUR OFF CAPE FEAR...AND THE OUTER
WATERS OFF FROM WINYAH BAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...OUTSIDE A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT
BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KT EARLY SUNDAY WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT BY SUNSET AND TURN
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE SE MONDAY
AND S TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS INVOF 10 KT. SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT
EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUNSET. SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FEET ARE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUE WILL BACK TO
NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. INCREASED GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH COLD
ADVECTION WILL BUMP WIND SPEEDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WED AND WED NIGHT.
GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR WED AND THU WITH INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.
NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH ONLY POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT
BEING IN THE VICINITY OF 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...XXXI
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/BJR









000
FXUS62 KILM 181818
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
218 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING AN AUTUMN CHILL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR...MAINTAINING FALL WEATHER MIDDLE
THROUGH LATE WEEK. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...AFTN MAXES CONTINUE HIER THAN VARIOUS
MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS AND
LACK OF CLOUDINESS TO FURTHER AID THE HIER MAXES. AFTN HIGHS MAY
COME WITHIN A CATEGORY OF RECORD MAXES BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST IF ANY OF THE LOW/MID
CLOUD DECK EXISTS AFTER THE CFP AS A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL S/W
TROF OR VORT LAGS BEHIND THE CFP. CONTINUE THE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTN FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY TO BASICALLY OVERHEAD BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMES TO AN END MIDDAY SUNDAY BUT THE VERY DRY AIRMASS AND IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL MAKE MONDAY MORNING ONE OF THE COOLEST
OF THE SEASON. LOW TO MIDDLE 40S WILL BE COMMON AND EVEN UPPER 30S
IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. MONDAY WILL BE A WARM UP DAY AS THE
RETURN FLOW DOMINATES. EXPECT HIGHS SOME 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
VALUES. NO POPS AND LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DICTATE
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO
DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THEN WOBBLE AROUND THE DELMARVA AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE FEATURE FINALLY GETS
KICKED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE CHALLENGED AND WHAT QPF...IF ANY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
LIGHT. OVERALL I HAVE TRIMMED BACK SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES MIDWEEK TO
MATCH ADJACENT OFFICES MORE THAN ANYTHING. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AFTER THE INITIAL FRONT MOVES
ACROSS LATE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
AIRMASS MODIFIES TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 50S RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID ISSUANCE PERIOD. A CFP IS SLATED TO OCCUR AFTER 22-23Z
FOR KFLO/KLBT...AND 00-01Z AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR TERMINALS. IT WILL BE
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR ONLY FEW/SCT CU/SC OR LOW AC JUST PRIOR AND
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE CFP. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS MAY OBSERVE SW
10 KT DUE TO A PINNED SEA BREEZE. ALL TERMS WILL SEE A SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND 10 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KT
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS CAA SURGE COMES INTO PLAY. PLUMMETING
DEWPOINTS AND STRONG SURFACE WINDS INDICATE FOG WILL NOT BE A
CONCERN OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH NORTH WINDS 10 KT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JUST THE ILM
NC WATERS ONLY...LEADING UP TO THE SCA THAT STARTS AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ALL WATERS WILL OBSERVE WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. A DECAYING
GONZALO SWELL AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE 2 TO 4
FOOT SIGNIFICANT SEAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS PARTICULARLY OFF CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF BLUSTERY NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. THIS COURTESY OF IDEAL MIXING WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS. BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND TEN KNOTS AND ACQUIRE A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS...TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY AM. REGARDING SEAS...EXPECT A SHORT PERIOD OF 3-5
FOOTERS SUNDAY DROPPING BY DAYS END TO 1-3 FEET. MONDAY WILL SEE A
FURTHER REDUCTION TO 1-2 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...TUESDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL DAY
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND WITH DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS...PROBABLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE WILL DEFINE WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FEET TUESDAY INCREASING TO 2-4 WEDNESDAY WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 181818
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
218 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING AN AUTUMN CHILL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR...MAINTAINING FALL WEATHER MIDDLE
THROUGH LATE WEEK. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...AFTN MAXES CONTINUE HIER THAN VARIOUS
MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS AND
LACK OF CLOUDINESS TO FURTHER AID THE HIER MAXES. AFTN HIGHS MAY
COME WITHIN A CATEGORY OF RECORD MAXES BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST IF ANY OF THE LOW/MID
CLOUD DECK EXISTS AFTER THE CFP AS A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL S/W
TROF OR VORT LAGS BEHIND THE CFP. CONTINUE THE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTN FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY TO BASICALLY OVERHEAD BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMES TO AN END MIDDAY SUNDAY BUT THE VERY DRY AIRMASS AND IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL MAKE MONDAY MORNING ONE OF THE COOLEST
OF THE SEASON. LOW TO MIDDLE 40S WILL BE COMMON AND EVEN UPPER 30S
IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. MONDAY WILL BE A WARM UP DAY AS THE
RETURN FLOW DOMINATES. EXPECT HIGHS SOME 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
VALUES. NO POPS AND LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DICTATE
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO
DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THEN WOBBLE AROUND THE DELMARVA AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE FEATURE FINALLY GETS
KICKED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE CHALLENGED AND WHAT QPF...IF ANY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
LIGHT. OVERALL I HAVE TRIMMED BACK SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES MIDWEEK TO
MATCH ADJACENT OFFICES MORE THAN ANYTHING. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AFTER THE INITIAL FRONT MOVES
ACROSS LATE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
AIRMASS MODIFIES TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 50S RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID ISSUANCE PERIOD. A CFP IS SLATED TO OCCUR AFTER 22-23Z
FOR KFLO/KLBT...AND 00-01Z AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR TERMINALS. IT WILL BE
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR ONLY FEW/SCT CU/SC OR LOW AC JUST PRIOR AND
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE CFP. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS MAY OBSERVE SW
10 KT DUE TO A PINNED SEA BREEZE. ALL TERMS WILL SEE A SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND 10 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KT
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS CAA SURGE COMES INTO PLAY. PLUMMETING
DEWPOINTS AND STRONG SURFACE WINDS INDICATE FOG WILL NOT BE A
CONCERN OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH NORTH WINDS 10 KT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JUST THE ILM
NC WATERS ONLY...LEADING UP TO THE SCA THAT STARTS AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ALL WATERS WILL OBSERVE WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. A DECAYING
GONZALO SWELL AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE 2 TO 4
FOOT SIGNIFICANT SEAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS PARTICULARLY OFF CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF BLUSTERY NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. THIS COURTESY OF IDEAL MIXING WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS. BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND TEN KNOTS AND ACQUIRE A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS...TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY AM. REGARDING SEAS...EXPECT A SHORT PERIOD OF 3-5
FOOTERS SUNDAY DROPPING BY DAYS END TO 1-3 FEET. MONDAY WILL SEE A
FURTHER REDUCTION TO 1-2 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...TUESDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL DAY
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND WITH DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS...PROBABLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE WILL DEFINE WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FEET TUESDAY INCREASING TO 2-4 WEDNESDAY WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/BJR






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