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000
FXUS62 KILM 040237
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1037 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR THE COAST. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL EXPECTING THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF RAINFALL TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST FROM THE
SOUTH IN THE MORNING HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. A SURFACE LOW NOW OVER
THE GEORGIA COASTLINE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE COAST AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED JUST SW OF OUR FORECAST AREA...IN THE VICINITY OF
BERKLEY COUNTY SC...BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. RELEVANT PORTION OF
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

A FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE COAST A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF FLORIDA
RIDING UP THE COAST.

THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND
AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE COAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION...MOSTLY THE COASTAL AREAS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
WHICH SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ONCE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS. MOS NUMBERS SEEM CURIOUSLY LOW CONSIDERING THE
HEAVY QPF GENERATED BY STRONG FORCING. I BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL ZONES BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

BY TUESDAY EVENING THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS ANY MID
LEVEL FEATURE GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES AND THE
RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END. ANOTHER DEWPOINT FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WITH MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL...POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT STILL IN THE FORECAST ALBEIT AT ISOLATED COVERAGE AND
INLAND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY OUTSIDE
OF THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ONE LAST DAY OF HEAT ON THURSDAY BUT CHANGES
NOT FAR BEHIND AS A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH (VERY POORLY REPRESENTED ON
THE GFS COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE) BEARS DOWN ON THE AREA. THIS
UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH MAY LEAVE MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT WILL THEN BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THE
DECELERATING BOUNDARY SHOULD TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET THROUGH.
THIS IS PROBABLY THE LEAST CERTAIN FACET OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE SENSE OF TIMING. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF WE END UP REFINING THE FORECAST IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC
DIRECTION LATER IN THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE
BOUNDARY MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE FLO/LBT
TERMINALS. MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIG/VSBY
INLAND AROUND SUNRISE SO HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO IFR. POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST...DECREASING INLAND. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS THE LOW
MOVES TO NEAR CAPE FEAR BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR OUR SC WATERS AS WE NO
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH 10
TO 15 KT WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND
SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE AREA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST OR JUST INLAND
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS CHURNED UP FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT A GOOD CLIP OF 15-20 KNOTS FOR A FEW
HOURS EVENTUALLY TURNING A BIT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE
SYSTEM ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER...AROUND TEN
KNOTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCEC SEAS TUESDAY DROPPING TO 2-4
FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PUT THE REGION IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. INITIALLY THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY THE
NORMAL SUMMER TIME BERMUDA HIGH BUT TRANSITION TO BEING MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN THE FRONT
ITSELF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH ITS
DECELERATION MAKES THIS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AT SOME POINT LATE IN
THE PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN WIND
DIRECTION AND ALSO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. SEAS MAY NOT
CHANGE HEIGHT APPRECIABLY THROUGH FROPA THOUGH THE WAVE FACES SHOULD
STEEPEN AS THE CHANGING WINDS SHORTEN THE DOMINANT PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/DRH
MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK/DRH





000
FXUS62 KILM 040237
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1037 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR THE COAST. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL EXPECTING THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF RAINFALL TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST FROM THE
SOUTH IN THE MORNING HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. A SURFACE LOW NOW OVER
THE GEORGIA COASTLINE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE COAST AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED JUST SW OF OUR FORECAST AREA...IN THE VICINITY OF
BERKLEY COUNTY SC...BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. RELEVANT PORTION OF
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

A FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE COAST A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF FLORIDA
RIDING UP THE COAST.

THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND
AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE COAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION...MOSTLY THE COASTAL AREAS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
WHICH SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ONCE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS. MOS NUMBERS SEEM CURIOUSLY LOW CONSIDERING THE
HEAVY QPF GENERATED BY STRONG FORCING. I BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL ZONES BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

BY TUESDAY EVENING THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS ANY MID
LEVEL FEATURE GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES AND THE
RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END. ANOTHER DEWPOINT FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WITH MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL...POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT STILL IN THE FORECAST ALBEIT AT ISOLATED COVERAGE AND
INLAND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY OUTSIDE
OF THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ONE LAST DAY OF HEAT ON THURSDAY BUT CHANGES
NOT FAR BEHIND AS A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH (VERY POORLY REPRESENTED ON
THE GFS COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE) BEARS DOWN ON THE AREA. THIS
UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH MAY LEAVE MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT WILL THEN BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THE
DECELERATING BOUNDARY SHOULD TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET THROUGH.
THIS IS PROBABLY THE LEAST CERTAIN FACET OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE SENSE OF TIMING. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF WE END UP REFINING THE FORECAST IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC
DIRECTION LATER IN THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE
BOUNDARY MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE FLO/LBT
TERMINALS. MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIG/VSBY
INLAND AROUND SUNRISE SO HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO IFR. POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST...DECREASING INLAND. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS THE LOW
MOVES TO NEAR CAPE FEAR BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR OUR SC WATERS AS WE NO
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH 10
TO 15 KT WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND
SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE AREA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST OR JUST INLAND
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS CHURNED UP FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT A GOOD CLIP OF 15-20 KNOTS FOR A FEW
HOURS EVENTUALLY TURNING A BIT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE
SYSTEM ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER...AROUND TEN
KNOTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCEC SEAS TUESDAY DROPPING TO 2-4
FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PUT THE REGION IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. INITIALLY THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY THE
NORMAL SUMMER TIME BERMUDA HIGH BUT TRANSITION TO BEING MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN THE FRONT
ITSELF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH ITS
DECELERATION MAKES THIS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AT SOME POINT LATE IN
THE PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN WIND
DIRECTION AND ALSO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. SEAS MAY NOT
CHANGE HEIGHT APPRECIABLY THROUGH FROPA THOUGH THE WAVE FACES SHOULD
STEEPEN AS THE CHANGING WINDS SHORTEN THE DOMINANT PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/DRH
MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK/DRH




000
FXUS62 KILM 032351
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
751 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR THE COAST. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
EXPECTING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF RAINFALL TO MOVE IN ALONG
THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. A
SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE GEORGIA COASTLINE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE
COAST AND SHOULD BE CENTERED JUST SW OF OUR FORECAST AREA...IN THE
VICINITY OF BERKELEY COUNTY SC...BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

A FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE COAST A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF FLORIDA
RIDING UP THE COAST.

THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND
AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE COAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION...MOSTLY THE COASTAL AREAS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
WHICH SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ONCE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS. MOS NUMBERS SEEM CURIOUSLY LOW CONSIDERING THE
HEAVY QPF GENERATED BY STRONG FORCING. I BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL ZONES BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

BY TUESDAY EVENING THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS ANY MID
LEVEL FEATURE GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES AND THE
RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END. ANOTHER DEWPOINT FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WITH MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL...POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT STILL IN THE FORECAST ALBEIT AT ISOLATED COVERAGE AND
INLAND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY OUTSIDE
OF THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ONE LAST DAY OF HEAT ON THURSDAY BUT CHANGES
NOT FAR BEHIND AS A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH (VERY POORLY REPRESENTED ON
THE GFS COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE) BEARS DOWN ON THE AREA. THIS
UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH MAY LEAVE MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT WILL THEN BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THE
DECELERATING BOUNDARY SHOULD TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET THROUGH.
THIS IS PROBABLY THE LEAST CERTAIN FACET OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE SENSE OF TIMING. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF WE END UP REFINING THE FORECAST IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC
DIRECTION LATER IN THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE
BOUNDARY MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE FLO/LBT
TERMINALS. MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIG/VSBY
INLAND AROUND SUNRISE SO HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO IFR. POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST...DECREASING INLAND. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS THE LOW
MOVES TO NEAR CAPE FEAR BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR
OUR SC WATERS AS WE NO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH 10 TO 15 KT WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND
SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE AREA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST OR JUST INLAND
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS CHURNED UP FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT A GOOD CLIP OF 15-20 KNOTS FOR A FEW
HOURS EVENTUALLY TURNING A BIT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE
SYSTEM ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER...AROUND TEN
KNOTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCEC SEAS TUESDAY DROPPING TO 2-4
FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PUT THE REGION IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. INITIALLY THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY THE
NORMAL SUMMER TIME BERMUDA HIGH BUT TRANSITION TO BEING MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN THE FRONT
ITSELF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH ITS
DECELERATION MAKES THIS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AT SOME POINT LATE IN
THE PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN WIND
DIRECTION AND ALSO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. SEAS MAY NOT
CHANGE HEIGHT APPRECIABLY THROUGH FROPA THOUGH THE WAVE FACES SHOULD
STEEPEN AS THE CHANGING WINDS SHORTEN THE DOMINANT PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/DRH
MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK/DRH




000
FXUS62 KILM 032351
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
751 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR THE COAST. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
EXPECTING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF RAINFALL TO MOVE IN ALONG
THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. A
SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE GEORGIA COASTLINE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE
COAST AND SHOULD BE CENTERED JUST SW OF OUR FORECAST AREA...IN THE
VICINITY OF BERKELEY COUNTY SC...BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

A FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE COAST A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF FLORIDA
RIDING UP THE COAST.

THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND
AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE COAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION...MOSTLY THE COASTAL AREAS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
WHICH SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ONCE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS. MOS NUMBERS SEEM CURIOUSLY LOW CONSIDERING THE
HEAVY QPF GENERATED BY STRONG FORCING. I BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL ZONES BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

BY TUESDAY EVENING THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS ANY MID
LEVEL FEATURE GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES AND THE
RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END. ANOTHER DEWPOINT FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WITH MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL...POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT STILL IN THE FORECAST ALBEIT AT ISOLATED COVERAGE AND
INLAND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY OUTSIDE
OF THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ONE LAST DAY OF HEAT ON THURSDAY BUT CHANGES
NOT FAR BEHIND AS A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH (VERY POORLY REPRESENTED ON
THE GFS COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE) BEARS DOWN ON THE AREA. THIS
UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH MAY LEAVE MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT WILL THEN BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THE
DECELERATING BOUNDARY SHOULD TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET THROUGH.
THIS IS PROBABLY THE LEAST CERTAIN FACET OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE SENSE OF TIMING. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF WE END UP REFINING THE FORECAST IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC
DIRECTION LATER IN THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE
BOUNDARY MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE FLO/LBT
TERMINALS. MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIG/VSBY
INLAND AROUND SUNRISE SO HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO IFR. POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST...DECREASING INLAND. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS THE LOW
MOVES TO NEAR CAPE FEAR BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR
OUR SC WATERS AS WE NO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH 10 TO 15 KT WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND
SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE AREA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST OR JUST INLAND
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS CHURNED UP FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT A GOOD CLIP OF 15-20 KNOTS FOR A FEW
HOURS EVENTUALLY TURNING A BIT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE
SYSTEM ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER...AROUND TEN
KNOTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCEC SEAS TUESDAY DROPPING TO 2-4
FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PUT THE REGION IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. INITIALLY THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY THE
NORMAL SUMMER TIME BERMUDA HIGH BUT TRANSITION TO BEING MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN THE FRONT
ITSELF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH ITS
DECELERATION MAKES THIS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AT SOME POINT LATE IN
THE PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN WIND
DIRECTION AND ALSO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. SEAS MAY NOT
CHANGE HEIGHT APPRECIABLY THROUGH FROPA THOUGH THE WAVE FACES SHOULD
STEEPEN AS THE CHANGING WINDS SHORTEN THE DOMINANT PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/DRH
MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK/DRH





000
FXUS62 KILM 031856
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
256 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FOR THE COAST. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE COAST
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF
FLORIDA RIDING UP THE COAST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE AXIS FROM COASTAL PENDER
COUNTY TO BACK TO WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
DIURNAL CONVECTION SLOWLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE BEST CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS IN THIS AREA.

THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND
AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE COAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION...MOSTLY THE COASTAL AREAS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
WHICH SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ONCE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS. MOS NUMBERS SEEM CURIOUSLY LOW CONSIDERING THE
HEAVY QPF GENERATED BY STRONG FORCING. I BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL ZONES BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

BY TUESDAY EVENING THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS ANY MID
LEVEL FEATURE GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES AND THE
RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END. ANOTHER DEWPOINT FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WITH MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL...POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT STILL IN THE FORECAST ALBEIT AT ISOLATED COVERAGE AND
INLAND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY OUTSIDE
OF THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ONE LAST DAY OF HEAT ON THURSDAY BUT CHANGES
NOT FAR BEHIND AS A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH (VERY POORLY REPRESENTED ON
THE GFS COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE) BEARS DOWN ON THE AREA. THIS
UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH MAY LEAVE MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT WILL THEN BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THE
DECELERATING BOUNDARY SHOULD TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET THROUGH.
THIS IS PROBABLY THE LEAST CERTAIN FACET OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE SENSE OF TIMING. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF WE END UP REFINING THE FORECAST IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC
DIRECTION LATER IN THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE
BOUNDARY MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO AND KMYR EAST TO KILM. MVFR CIGS/TEMPO
MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING WITH THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KILM. THE CHANCE OF VCTS IS LOW.
PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST OR JUST INLAND
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS CHURNED UP FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT A GOOD CLIP OF 15-20 KNOTS FOR A FEW
HOURS EVENTUALLY TURNING A BIT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE
SYSTEM ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER...AROUND TEN
KNOTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCEC SEAS TUESDAY DROPPING TO 2-4
FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HURSDAY AND FRIDAY PUT THE REGION IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. INITIALLY THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY THE
NORMAL SUMMER TIME BERMUDA HIGH BUT TRANSITION TO BEING MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN THE FRONT
ITSELF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH ITS
DECELERATION MAKES THIS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AT SOME POINT LATE IN
THE PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN WIND
DIRECTION AND ALSO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. SEAS MAY NOT
CHANGE HEIGHT APPRECIABLY THROUGH FROPA THOUGH THE WAVE FACES SHOULD
STEEPEN AS THE CHANGING WINDS SHORTEN THE DOMINANT PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/DRH





000
FXUS62 KILM 031856
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
256 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FOR THE COAST. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE COAST
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF
FLORIDA RIDING UP THE COAST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE AXIS FROM COASTAL PENDER
COUNTY TO BACK TO WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
DIURNAL CONVECTION SLOWLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE BEST CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS IN THIS AREA.

THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND
AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE COAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION...MOSTLY THE COASTAL AREAS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
WHICH SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ONCE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS. MOS NUMBERS SEEM CURIOUSLY LOW CONSIDERING THE
HEAVY QPF GENERATED BY STRONG FORCING. I BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL ZONES BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

BY TUESDAY EVENING THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS ANY MID
LEVEL FEATURE GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES AND THE
RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END. ANOTHER DEWPOINT FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WITH MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL...POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT STILL IN THE FORECAST ALBEIT AT ISOLATED COVERAGE AND
INLAND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY OUTSIDE
OF THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ONE LAST DAY OF HEAT ON THURSDAY BUT CHANGES
NOT FAR BEHIND AS A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH (VERY POORLY REPRESENTED ON
THE GFS COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE) BEARS DOWN ON THE AREA. THIS
UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH MAY LEAVE MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT WILL THEN BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THE
DECELERATING BOUNDARY SHOULD TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET THROUGH.
THIS IS PROBABLY THE LEAST CERTAIN FACET OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE SENSE OF TIMING. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF WE END UP REFINING THE FORECAST IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC
DIRECTION LATER IN THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE
BOUNDARY MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO AND KMYR EAST TO KILM. MVFR CIGS/TEMPO
MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING WITH THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KILM. THE CHANCE OF VCTS IS LOW.
PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST OR JUST INLAND
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS CHURNED UP FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT A GOOD CLIP OF 15-20 KNOTS FOR A FEW
HOURS EVENTUALLY TURNING A BIT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE
SYSTEM ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER...AROUND TEN
KNOTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCEC SEAS TUESDAY DROPPING TO 2-4
FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HURSDAY AND FRIDAY PUT THE REGION IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. INITIALLY THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY THE
NORMAL SUMMER TIME BERMUDA HIGH BUT TRANSITION TO BEING MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN THE FRONT
ITSELF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH ITS
DECELERATION MAKES THIS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AT SOME POINT LATE IN
THE PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN WIND
DIRECTION AND ALSO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. SEAS MAY NOT
CHANGE HEIGHT APPRECIABLY THROUGH FROPA THOUGH THE WAVE FACES SHOULD
STEEPEN AS THE CHANGING WINDS SHORTEN THE DOMINANT PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/DRH




000
FXUS62 KILM 031758
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
158 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FOR THE COAST. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH AND STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH AND STALLS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE COAST A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF
FLORIDA RIDING UP THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
AXIS FROM COASTAL PENDER COUNTY TO BACK TO WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS DIURNAL CONVECTION SLOWLY BY EARLY THIS
EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
3 TO 4 HOURS IN THIS AREA.

THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND
AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MID-TO-UPR
80S AND WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO AND KMYR EAST TO KILM. MVFR CIGS/TEMPO
MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING WITH THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KILM. THE CHANCE OF VCTS IS LOW.
PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...THE WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEA TO
INCREASE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET WITH
WINDS OF 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE
PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE
PROLONGED DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO
4-6 FT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
TOWARDS THE WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE
WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT
THANKS TO THE RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO
2-4 FT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 031758
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
158 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FOR THE COAST. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH AND STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH AND STALLS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE COAST A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF
FLORIDA RIDING UP THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
AXIS FROM COASTAL PENDER COUNTY TO BACK TO WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS DIURNAL CONVECTION SLOWLY BY EARLY THIS
EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
3 TO 4 HOURS IN THIS AREA.

THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND
AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MID-TO-UPR
80S AND WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO AND KMYR EAST TO KILM. MVFR CIGS/TEMPO
MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING WITH THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KILM. THE CHANCE OF VCTS IS LOW.
PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...THE WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEA TO
INCREASE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET WITH
WINDS OF 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE
PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE
PROLONGED DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO
4-6 FT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
TOWARDS THE WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE
WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT
THANKS TO THE RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO
2-4 FT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 031758
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
158 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FOR THE COAST. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH AND STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH AND STALLS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE COAST A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF
FLORIDA RIDING UP THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
AXIS FROM COASTAL PENDER COUNTY TO BACK TO WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS DIURNAL CONVECTION SLOWLY BY EARLY THIS
EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
3 TO 4 HOURS IN THIS AREA.

THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND
AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MID-TO-UPR
80S AND WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO AND KMYR EAST TO KILM. MVFR CIGS/TEMPO
MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING WITH THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KILM. THE CHANCE OF VCTS IS LOW.
PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...THE WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEA TO
INCREASE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET WITH
WINDS OF 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE
PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE
PROLONGED DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO
4-6 FT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
TOWARDS THE WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE
WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT
THANKS TO THE RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO
2-4 FT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 031758
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
158 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FOR THE COAST. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH AND STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH AND STALLS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE COAST A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF
FLORIDA RIDING UP THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
AXIS FROM COASTAL PENDER COUNTY TO BACK TO WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS DIURNAL CONVECTION SLOWLY BY EARLY THIS
EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
3 TO 4 HOURS IN THIS AREA.

THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND
AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MID-TO-UPR
80S AND WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO AND KMYR EAST TO KILM. MVFR CIGS/TEMPO
MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING WITH THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KILM. THE CHANCE OF VCTS IS LOW.
PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...THE WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEA TO
INCREASE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET WITH
WINDS OF 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE
PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE
PROLONGED DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO
4-6 FT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
TOWARDS THE WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE
WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT
THANKS TO THE RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO
2-4 FT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 031441
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1041 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STATIONARY ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CREATING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THE NEW 12 UTC NAM IS SHOWING THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKING INLAND THROUGH DAY AND THE OVERNIGHT. THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS
SHOWING THE NEXT LARGE BATCH PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN MOVING UP THE
COAST AND MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AFTER 06 UTC AND
SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY.
WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST WITH
THE LOWER CHANCES IN THE EXTREME WEST. OTHERWISE CAN EXPECTED
SCATTERED CONVECTION THE REMAINDER OF THE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WKND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WKND WITH MID-TO-UPR 80S AND
WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO
AND KMYR EAST TO S OF KILM. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT
KILM.

WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE TERMINALS AND AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG IT...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN
FLORIDA...WHILE WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL BE VFR FOR THE MOST PART THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD. TEMPO MVFR CIGS/POSSIBLY TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH SHOWERS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT TO REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. VCTS CHANCE IS LOW
BUT BEST CONFIDENCE AT KCRE/KMYR. PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...THE WINDS HAVE RELAXED AND THE SEAS HAVE
DROPPED TO MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED UP THE COAST AND AWAY FROM THE COASTA WATERS. THUS HAVE
REMOVED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND THE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEA TO
INCREASE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE
PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE
PROLONGED DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO
4-6 FT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
TOWARDS THE WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE
WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT
THANKS TO THE RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO
2-4 FT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 031441
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1041 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STATIONARY ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CREATING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THE NEW 12 UTC NAM IS SHOWING THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKING INLAND THROUGH DAY AND THE OVERNIGHT. THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS
SHOWING THE NEXT LARGE BATCH PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN MOVING UP THE
COAST AND MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AFTER 06 UTC AND
SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY.
WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST WITH
THE LOWER CHANCES IN THE EXTREME WEST. OTHERWISE CAN EXPECTED
SCATTERED CONVECTION THE REMAINDER OF THE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WKND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WKND WITH MID-TO-UPR 80S AND
WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO
AND KMYR EAST TO S OF KILM. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT
KILM.

WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE TERMINALS AND AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG IT...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN
FLORIDA...WHILE WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL BE VFR FOR THE MOST PART THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD. TEMPO MVFR CIGS/POSSIBLY TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH SHOWERS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT TO REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. VCTS CHANCE IS LOW
BUT BEST CONFIDENCE AT KCRE/KMYR. PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...THE WINDS HAVE RELAXED AND THE SEAS HAVE
DROPPED TO MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED UP THE COAST AND AWAY FROM THE COASTA WATERS. THUS HAVE
REMOVED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND THE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEA TO
INCREASE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE
PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE
PROLONGED DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO
4-6 FT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
TOWARDS THE WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE
WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT
THANKS TO THE RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO
2-4 FT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 031441
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1041 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STATIONARY ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CREATING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THE NEW 12 UTC NAM IS SHOWING THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKING INLAND THROUGH DAY AND THE OVERNIGHT. THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS
SHOWING THE NEXT LARGE BATCH PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN MOVING UP THE
COAST AND MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AFTER 06 UTC AND
SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY.
WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST WITH
THE LOWER CHANCES IN THE EXTREME WEST. OTHERWISE CAN EXPECTED
SCATTERED CONVECTION THE REMAINDER OF THE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WKND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WKND WITH MID-TO-UPR 80S AND
WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO
AND KMYR EAST TO S OF KILM. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT
KILM.

WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE TERMINALS AND AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG IT...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN
FLORIDA...WHILE WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL BE VFR FOR THE MOST PART THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD. TEMPO MVFR CIGS/POSSIBLY TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH SHOWERS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT TO REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. VCTS CHANCE IS LOW
BUT BEST CONFIDENCE AT KCRE/KMYR. PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...THE WINDS HAVE RELAXED AND THE SEAS HAVE
DROPPED TO MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED UP THE COAST AND AWAY FROM THE COASTA WATERS. THUS HAVE
REMOVED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND THE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEA TO
INCREASE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE
PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE
PROLONGED DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO
4-6 FT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
TOWARDS THE WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE
WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT
THANKS TO THE RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO
2-4 FT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 031212
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
812 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CREATING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...LATEST MSAS INDICATES THE SFC BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE FA REMAINS
SOMEWHAT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC MARINE TROPICAL AIRMASS
AND A CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS RELATIVELY SPEAKING. A STREAM OF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS EXTENDS OVERHEAD JUST EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. AT THE MOMENT...A WEAK SFC LOW IS EXITING TO THE NE OF THE
FA TAKING WITH IT THE MAJORITY OF THIS MORNINGS PCPN. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THE S/W TROF ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK
NE ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND INTO SOUTHERN GA LATER THIS EVENING...
AND SOUTHERN SC BY DAYBREAK TUE. DYNAMICS FROM THESE FEATURES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STREAM OF MOISTURE EXHIBITING PWS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES...AND PRODUCE MAINLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST PCPN COVERAGE AND HIGHEST POPS THRU TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL EXHIBIT A
RATHER SHARP DECREASING TREND TO THE POPS AS 1 MOVES INLAND FROM
THE COAST. BY THE TIME 1 REACHES THE I-95 CORRIDOR... POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. AS FOR TEMPS...CUT A
FEW DEGREES OFF TODAYS MAX TEMPS FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THIS
DUE TO ONGOING PCPN AND MORE WIDESPREAD AND OPAQUE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WKND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WKND WITH MID-TO-UPR 80S AND
WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO
AND KMYR EAST TO S OF KILM. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT
KILM.

WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE TERMINALS AND AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG IT...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN
FLORIDA...WHILE WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL BE VFR FOR THE MOST PART THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD. TEMPO MVFR CIGS/POSSIBLY TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH SHOWERS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT TO REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. VCTS CHANCE IS LOW
BUT BEST CONFIDENCE AT KCRE/KMYR. PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...HOISTED A TEMPORARY SCA FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS TODAY AND A SCEC FOR THE ILM SC WATERS...BOTH THRU 6 PM.
ACTIVE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT PUSHED SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO 4 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF
CITY...MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR PER LATEST
BUOY READINGS FROM 41013 AND 41108. THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS THE
S/W TROF ALOFT PUSHES NE OF THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING ALLOWING
THE SFC PG TO RELAX-SOME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SCA
DOWNGRADED BY NOON. HOWEVER...INSTEAD OF PLAYING THE YO-YO
GAME...MAY ACTUALLY WANT TO KEEP BOTH HOISTED IN ANTICIPATION OF
THE NEXT OR MAIN SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ALOFT...APPROACH
THE FA FROM THE SW. THIS WILL LIKELY RE-TIGHTEN THE SFC PG
YIELDING 15 KT TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND PRODUCE A SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN YIELDING MAINLY SSE-SW WIND DIRECTIONS. HEALTHY
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
AT 6 TO 7 SECOND PERIODS...AND A 1 TO 2 FOOT SE-SSE 10-11 SECOND
PERIOD GROUND SWELL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AS
A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE PROLONGED
DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT THANKS TO THE
RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KILM 031212
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
812 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CREATING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...LATEST MSAS INDICATES THE SFC BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE FA REMAINS
SOMEWHAT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC MARINE TROPICAL AIRMASS
AND A CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS RELATIVELY SPEAKING. A STREAM OF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS EXTENDS OVERHEAD JUST EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. AT THE MOMENT...A WEAK SFC LOW IS EXITING TO THE NE OF THE
FA TAKING WITH IT THE MAJORITY OF THIS MORNINGS PCPN. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THE S/W TROF ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK
NE ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND INTO SOUTHERN GA LATER THIS EVENING...
AND SOUTHERN SC BY DAYBREAK TUE. DYNAMICS FROM THESE FEATURES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STREAM OF MOISTURE EXHIBITING PWS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES...AND PRODUCE MAINLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST PCPN COVERAGE AND HIGHEST POPS THRU TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL EXHIBIT A
RATHER SHARP DECREASING TREND TO THE POPS AS 1 MOVES INLAND FROM
THE COAST. BY THE TIME 1 REACHES THE I-95 CORRIDOR... POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. AS FOR TEMPS...CUT A
FEW DEGREES OFF TODAYS MAX TEMPS FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THIS
DUE TO ONGOING PCPN AND MORE WIDESPREAD AND OPAQUE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WKND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WKND WITH MID-TO-UPR 80S AND
WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO
AND KMYR EAST TO S OF KILM. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT
KILM.

WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE TERMINALS AND AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG IT...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN
FLORIDA...WHILE WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL BE VFR FOR THE MOST PART THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD. TEMPO MVFR CIGS/POSSIBLY TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH SHOWERS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT TO REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. VCTS CHANCE IS LOW
BUT BEST CONFIDENCE AT KCRE/KMYR. PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...HOISTED A TEMPORARY SCA FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS TODAY AND A SCEC FOR THE ILM SC WATERS...BOTH THRU 6 PM.
ACTIVE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT PUSHED SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO 4 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF
CITY...MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR PER LATEST
BUOY READINGS FROM 41013 AND 41108. THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS THE
S/W TROF ALOFT PUSHES NE OF THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING ALLOWING
THE SFC PG TO RELAX-SOME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SCA
DOWNGRADED BY NOON. HOWEVER...INSTEAD OF PLAYING THE YO-YO
GAME...MAY ACTUALLY WANT TO KEEP BOTH HOISTED IN ANTICIPATION OF
THE NEXT OR MAIN SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ALOFT...APPROACH
THE FA FROM THE SW. THIS WILL LIKELY RE-TIGHTEN THE SFC PG
YIELDING 15 KT TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND PRODUCE A SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN YIELDING MAINLY SSE-SW WIND DIRECTIONS. HEALTHY
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
AT 6 TO 7 SECOND PERIODS...AND A 1 TO 2 FOOT SE-SSE 10-11 SECOND
PERIOD GROUND SWELL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AS
A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE PROLONGED
DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT THANKS TO THE
RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KILM 031212
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
812 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CREATING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...LATEST MSAS INDICATES THE SFC BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE FA REMAINS
SOMEWHAT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC MARINE TROPICAL AIRMASS
AND A CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS RELATIVELY SPEAKING. A STREAM OF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS EXTENDS OVERHEAD JUST EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. AT THE MOMENT...A WEAK SFC LOW IS EXITING TO THE NE OF THE
FA TAKING WITH IT THE MAJORITY OF THIS MORNINGS PCPN. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THE S/W TROF ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK
NE ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND INTO SOUTHERN GA LATER THIS EVENING...
AND SOUTHERN SC BY DAYBREAK TUE. DYNAMICS FROM THESE FEATURES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STREAM OF MOISTURE EXHIBITING PWS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES...AND PRODUCE MAINLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST PCPN COVERAGE AND HIGHEST POPS THRU TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL EXHIBIT A
RATHER SHARP DECREASING TREND TO THE POPS AS 1 MOVES INLAND FROM
THE COAST. BY THE TIME 1 REACHES THE I-95 CORRIDOR... POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. AS FOR TEMPS...CUT A
FEW DEGREES OFF TODAYS MAX TEMPS FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THIS
DUE TO ONGOING PCPN AND MORE WIDESPREAD AND OPAQUE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WKND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WKND WITH MID-TO-UPR 80S AND
WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO
AND KMYR EAST TO S OF KILM. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT
KILM.

WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE TERMINALS AND AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG IT...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN
FLORIDA...WHILE WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL BE VFR FOR THE MOST PART THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD. TEMPO MVFR CIGS/POSSIBLY TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH SHOWERS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT TO REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. VCTS CHANCE IS LOW
BUT BEST CONFIDENCE AT KCRE/KMYR. PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...HOISTED A TEMPORARY SCA FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS TODAY AND A SCEC FOR THE ILM SC WATERS...BOTH THRU 6 PM.
ACTIVE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT PUSHED SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO 4 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF
CITY...MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR PER LATEST
BUOY READINGS FROM 41013 AND 41108. THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS THE
S/W TROF ALOFT PUSHES NE OF THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING ALLOWING
THE SFC PG TO RELAX-SOME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SCA
DOWNGRADED BY NOON. HOWEVER...INSTEAD OF PLAYING THE YO-YO
GAME...MAY ACTUALLY WANT TO KEEP BOTH HOISTED IN ANTICIPATION OF
THE NEXT OR MAIN SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ALOFT...APPROACH
THE FA FROM THE SW. THIS WILL LIKELY RE-TIGHTEN THE SFC PG
YIELDING 15 KT TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND PRODUCE A SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN YIELDING MAINLY SSE-SW WIND DIRECTIONS. HEALTHY
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
AT 6 TO 7 SECOND PERIODS...AND A 1 TO 2 FOOT SE-SSE 10-11 SECOND
PERIOD GROUND SWELL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AS
A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE PROLONGED
DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT THANKS TO THE
RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KILM 031212
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
812 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CREATING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...LATEST MSAS INDICATES THE SFC BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE FA REMAINS
SOMEWHAT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC MARINE TROPICAL AIRMASS
AND A CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS RELATIVELY SPEAKING. A STREAM OF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS EXTENDS OVERHEAD JUST EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. AT THE MOMENT...A WEAK SFC LOW IS EXITING TO THE NE OF THE
FA TAKING WITH IT THE MAJORITY OF THIS MORNINGS PCPN. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THE S/W TROF ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK
NE ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND INTO SOUTHERN GA LATER THIS EVENING...
AND SOUTHERN SC BY DAYBREAK TUE. DYNAMICS FROM THESE FEATURES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STREAM OF MOISTURE EXHIBITING PWS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES...AND PRODUCE MAINLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST PCPN COVERAGE AND HIGHEST POPS THRU TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL EXHIBIT A
RATHER SHARP DECREASING TREND TO THE POPS AS 1 MOVES INLAND FROM
THE COAST. BY THE TIME 1 REACHES THE I-95 CORRIDOR... POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. AS FOR TEMPS...CUT A
FEW DEGREES OFF TODAYS MAX TEMPS FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THIS
DUE TO ONGOING PCPN AND MORE WIDESPREAD AND OPAQUE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WKND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WKND WITH MID-TO-UPR 80S AND
WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO
AND KMYR EAST TO S OF KILM. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT
KILM.

WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE TERMINALS AND AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG IT...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN
FLORIDA...WHILE WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL BE VFR FOR THE MOST PART THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD. TEMPO MVFR CIGS/POSSIBLY TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH SHOWERS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT TO REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. VCTS CHANCE IS LOW
BUT BEST CONFIDENCE AT KCRE/KMYR. PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...HOISTED A TEMPORARY SCA FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS TODAY AND A SCEC FOR THE ILM SC WATERS...BOTH THRU 6 PM.
ACTIVE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT PUSHED SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO 4 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF
CITY...MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR PER LATEST
BUOY READINGS FROM 41013 AND 41108. THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS THE
S/W TROF ALOFT PUSHES NE OF THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING ALLOWING
THE SFC PG TO RELAX-SOME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SCA
DOWNGRADED BY NOON. HOWEVER...INSTEAD OF PLAYING THE YO-YO
GAME...MAY ACTUALLY WANT TO KEEP BOTH HOISTED IN ANTICIPATION OF
THE NEXT OR MAIN SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ALOFT...APPROACH
THE FA FROM THE SW. THIS WILL LIKELY RE-TIGHTEN THE SFC PG
YIELDING 15 KT TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND PRODUCE A SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN YIELDING MAINLY SSE-SW WIND DIRECTIONS. HEALTHY
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
AT 6 TO 7 SECOND PERIODS...AND A 1 TO 2 FOOT SE-SSE 10-11 SECOND
PERIOD GROUND SWELL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AS
A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE PROLONGED
DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT THANKS TO THE
RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KILM 031055
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CREATING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...LATEST MSAS INDICATES THE SFC BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE FA REMAINS
SOMEWHAT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC MARINE TROPICAL AIRMASS
AND A CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS RELATIVELY SPEAKING. A STREAM OF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS EXTENDS OVERHEAD JUST EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. AT THE MOMENT...A WEAK SFC LOW IS EXITING TO THE NE OF THE
FA TAKING WITH IT THE MAJORITY OF THIS MORNINGS PCPN. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THE S/W TROF ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK
NE ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND INTO SOUTHERN GA LATER THIS EVENING...
AND SOUTHERN SC BY DAYBREAK TUE. DYNAMICS FROM THESE FEATURES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STREAM OF MOISTURE EXHIBITING PWS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES...AND PRODUCE MAINLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST PCPN COVERAGE AND HIEST POPS THRU TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN CONCENTRATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL EXHIBIT A
RATHER SHARP DECREASING TREND TO THE POPS AS 1 MOVES INLAND FROM
THE COAST. BY THE TIME 1 REACHES THE I-95 CORRIDOR... POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. AS FOR TEMPS...CUT A
FEW DEGREES OFF TODAYS MAX TEMPS FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THIS
DUE TO ONGOING PCPN AND MORE WIDESPREAD AND OPAQUE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WKND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WKND WITH MID-TO-UPR 80S AND
WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING UP AND ALONG THE SE
U.S. COAST. FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING/DRIFTING NE INTO NRN
FLORIDA...AND THEN INTO GEORGIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PWAT AMOUNTS INCREASE TO ABOUT 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL AREAS AS PER THE MODEL SOUNDINGS BUT REMAINING LESS THAN
2 INCHES INLAND. MODELS SHOW SHARP DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AS YOU MOVE WESTWARD...WITH INTERSTATE 95 ACTING LIKE THE
DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN PCPN OR NO PCPN. ANY SHIFT IN THE MODELS
JUST 30 MILES EITHER WAY CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. WILL MAINLY HEDGE WITH MVFR PERHAPS IFR ALONG THE
COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SOME OF
WHICH MIGHT BE HEAVY AND VFR/MVFR INLAND WITH SOME SHWRS. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE LOW AS MODELS DIFFER WITH SPEED AND STRENGTH OF
LOW COMING OUT OF THE GOM.
REMAINS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...HOISTED A TEMPORARY SCA FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS TODAY AND A SCEC FOR THE ILM SC WATERS...BOTH THRU 6 PM.
ACTIVE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT PUSHED SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO 4 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF
CITY...MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR PER LATEST
BUOY READINGS FROM 41013 AND 41108. THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS THE
S/W TROF ALOFT PUSHES NE OF THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING ALLOWING
THE SFC PG TO RELAX-SOME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SCA
DOWNGRADED BY NOON. HOWEVER...INSTEAD OF PLAYING THE YO-YO
GAME...MAY ACTUALLY WANT TO KEEP BOTH HOISTED IN ANTICIPATION OF
THE NEXT OR MAIN SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ALOFT...APPROACH
THE FA FROM THE SW. THIS WILL LIKELY RE-TIGHTEN THE SFC PG
YIELDING 15 KT TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND PRODUCE A SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN YIELDING MAINLY SSE-SW WIND DIRECTIONS. HEALTHY
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
AT 6 TO 7 SECOND PERIODS...AND A 1 TO 2 FOOT SE-SSE 10-11 SECOND
PERIOD GROUND SWELL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AS
A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE PROLONGED
DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT THANKS TO THE
RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/MAC




000
FXUS62 KILM 031055
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CREATING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...LATEST MSAS INDICATES THE SFC BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE FA REMAINS
SOMEWHAT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC MARINE TROPICAL AIRMASS
AND A CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS RELATIVELY SPEAKING. A STREAM OF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS EXTENDS OVERHEAD JUST EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. AT THE MOMENT...A WEAK SFC LOW IS EXITING TO THE NE OF THE
FA TAKING WITH IT THE MAJORITY OF THIS MORNINGS PCPN. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THE S/W TROF ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK
NE ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND INTO SOUTHERN GA LATER THIS EVENING...
AND SOUTHERN SC BY DAYBREAK TUE. DYNAMICS FROM THESE FEATURES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STREAM OF MOISTURE EXHIBITING PWS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES...AND PRODUCE MAINLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST PCPN COVERAGE AND HIEST POPS THRU TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN CONCENTRATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL EXHIBIT A
RATHER SHARP DECREASING TREND TO THE POPS AS 1 MOVES INLAND FROM
THE COAST. BY THE TIME 1 REACHES THE I-95 CORRIDOR... POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. AS FOR TEMPS...CUT A
FEW DEGREES OFF TODAYS MAX TEMPS FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THIS
DUE TO ONGOING PCPN AND MORE WIDESPREAD AND OPAQUE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WKND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WKND WITH MID-TO-UPR 80S AND
WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING UP AND ALONG THE SE
U.S. COAST. FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING/DRIFTING NE INTO NRN
FLORIDA...AND THEN INTO GEORGIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PWAT AMOUNTS INCREASE TO ABOUT 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL AREAS AS PER THE MODEL SOUNDINGS BUT REMAINING LESS THAN
2 INCHES INLAND. MODELS SHOW SHARP DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AS YOU MOVE WESTWARD...WITH INTERSTATE 95 ACTING LIKE THE
DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN PCPN OR NO PCPN. ANY SHIFT IN THE MODELS
JUST 30 MILES EITHER WAY CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. WILL MAINLY HEDGE WITH MVFR PERHAPS IFR ALONG THE
COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SOME OF
WHICH MIGHT BE HEAVY AND VFR/MVFR INLAND WITH SOME SHWRS. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE LOW AS MODELS DIFFER WITH SPEED AND STRENGTH OF
LOW COMING OUT OF THE GOM.
REMAINS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...HOISTED A TEMPORARY SCA FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS TODAY AND A SCEC FOR THE ILM SC WATERS...BOTH THRU 6 PM.
ACTIVE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT PUSHED SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO 4 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF
CITY...MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR PER LATEST
BUOY READINGS FROM 41013 AND 41108. THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS THE
S/W TROF ALOFT PUSHES NE OF THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING ALLOWING
THE SFC PG TO RELAX-SOME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SCA
DOWNGRADED BY NOON. HOWEVER...INSTEAD OF PLAYING THE YO-YO
GAME...MAY ACTUALLY WANT TO KEEP BOTH HOISTED IN ANTICIPATION OF
THE NEXT OR MAIN SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ALOFT...APPROACH
THE FA FROM THE SW. THIS WILL LIKELY RE-TIGHTEN THE SFC PG
YIELDING 15 KT TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND PRODUCE A SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN YIELDING MAINLY SSE-SW WIND DIRECTIONS. HEALTHY
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
AT 6 TO 7 SECOND PERIODS...AND A 1 TO 2 FOOT SE-SSE 10-11 SECOND
PERIOD GROUND SWELL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AS
A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE PROLONGED
DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT THANKS TO THE
RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/MAC





000
FXUS62 KILM 030912
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
512 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CREATING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...LATEST MSAS INDICATES THE SFC BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE FA REMAINS REMAINS
SOMEWHAT SANDWICHED BETWEEN ATLANTIC MARINE TROPICAL AIRMASS AND
A CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS RELATIVELY SPEAKING. A STREAM OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS EXTENDS OVERHEAD JUST
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST. AT THE MOMENT A WEAK SFC LOW IS EXITING TO THE NE OF
THE FA TAKING WITH IT THE MAJORITY OF THIS MORNINGS PCPN. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...THE S/W TROF ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
TRACK NE ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND INTO SOUTHERN GA LATER THIS
EVENING...AND SOUTHERN SC BY DAYBREAK TUE. DYNAMICS FROM THESE
FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH THE STREAM OF MOISTURE EXHIBITING PWS
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...AND PRODUCE MAINLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST PCPN COVERAGE AND HIEST POPS THRU
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL
EXHIBIT A RATHER SHARP DECREASING TREND TO THE POPS AS 1 MOVES
INLAND FROM THE COAST. BY THE TIME 1 REACHES THE I-95 CORRIDOR...
POPS WILL GENERALLY BE ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. AS FOR
TEMPS...CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF TODAYS MAX TEMPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE. THIS DUE TO ONGOING PCPN AND MORE WIDESPREAD AND OPAQUE
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WKND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WKND WITH MID-TO-UPR 80S AND
WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING UP AND ALONG THE SE
U.S. COAST. FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING/DRIFTING NE INTO NRN
FLORIDA...AND THEN INTO GEORGIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PWAT AMOUNTS INCREASE TO ABOUT 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL AREAS AS PER THE MODEL SOUNDINGS BUT REMAINING LESS THAN
2 INCHES INLAND. MODELS SHOW SHARP DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AS YOU MOVE WESTWARD...WITH INTERSTATE 95 ACTING LIKE THE
DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN PCPN OR NO PCPN. ANY SHIFT IN THE MODELS
JUST 30 MILES EITHER WAY CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. WILL MAINLY HEDGE WITH MVFR PERHAPS IFR ALONG THE
COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SOME OF
WHICH MIGHT BE HEAVY AND VFR/MVFR INLAND WITH SOME SHWRS. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE LOW AS MODELS DIFFER WITH SPEED AND STRENGTH OF
LOW COMING OUT OF THE GOM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...HOISTED A TEMPORARY SCA FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS TODAY AND A SCEC FOR THE ILM SC WATERS...THRU 6 PM. ACTIVE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT PUSHED SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO 4 TO 7 FT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF
CITY...MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR PER LATEST
BUOY READINGS FROM 41013 AND 41108. THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS THE
S/W TROF ALOFT PUSHES NE OF THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING ALLOWING
THE SFC PG TO RELAX-SOME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SCA
DOWNGRADED BY NOON. HOWEVER...INSTEAD OF PLAYING THE YO-YO
GAME...MAY ACTUALLY WANT TO KEEP BOTH HOISTED IN ANTICIPATION OF
THE NEXT OR MAIN SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ALOFT...APPROACH
THE FA FROM THE SW. THIS WILL LIKELY RE-TIGHTEN THE SFC PG
YIELDING 15 KT TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND PRODUCE A SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN YIELDING MAINLY SSE-SW WIND DIRECTIONS.
HEALTHY SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF A SOUTHERLY
WIND WAVE AT 6 TO 7 SECOND PERIODS...AND A 1 TO 2 FOOT SE-SSE
10-11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AS
A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE PROLONGED
DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT THANKS TO THE
RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/MAC




000
FXUS62 KILM 030752
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
352 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CREATING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS THE COAST
IS NOW FROM 15 TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BE SKIRTING BALD HEAD
ISLAND SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WKND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WKND WITH MID-TO-UPR 80S AND
WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING UP AND ALONG THE SE
U.S. COAST. FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING/DRIFTING NE INTO NRN
FLORIDA...AND THEN INTO GEORGIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PWAT AMOUNTS INCREASE TO ABOUT 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL AREAS AS PER THE MODEL SOUNDINGS BUT REMAINING LESS THAN
2 INCHES INLAND. MODELS SHOW SHARP DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AS YOU MOVE WESTWARD...WITH INTERSTATE 95 ACTING LIKE THE
DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN PCPN OR NO PCPN. ANY SHIFT IN THE MODELS
JUST 30 MILES EITHER WAY CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. WILL MAINLY HEDGE WITH MVFR PERHAPS IFR ALONG THE
COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SOME OF
WHICH MIGHT BE HEAVY AND VFR/MVFR INLAND WITH SOME SHWRS. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE LOW AS MODELS DIFFER WITH SPEED AND STRENGTH OF
LOW COMING OUT OF THE GOM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 KTS WITH 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST WHICH PROJECTS A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS INCREASING UP TO 5 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS)
AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND
GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC
VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT
REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AS A
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE PROLONGED
DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL EASE
AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT THANKS TO THE
RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 030752
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
352 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CREATING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS THE COAST
IS NOW FROM 15 TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BE SKIRTING BALD HEAD
ISLAND SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WKND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WKND WITH MID-TO-UPR 80S AND
WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING UP AND ALONG THE SE
U.S. COAST. FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING/DRIFTING NE INTO NRN
FLORIDA...AND THEN INTO GEORGIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PWAT AMOUNTS INCREASE TO ABOUT 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL AREAS AS PER THE MODEL SOUNDINGS BUT REMAINING LESS THAN
2 INCHES INLAND. MODELS SHOW SHARP DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AS YOU MOVE WESTWARD...WITH INTERSTATE 95 ACTING LIKE THE
DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN PCPN OR NO PCPN. ANY SHIFT IN THE MODELS
JUST 30 MILES EITHER WAY CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. WILL MAINLY HEDGE WITH MVFR PERHAPS IFR ALONG THE
COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SOME OF
WHICH MIGHT BE HEAVY AND VFR/MVFR INLAND WITH SOME SHWRS. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE LOW AS MODELS DIFFER WITH SPEED AND STRENGTH OF
LOW COMING OUT OF THE GOM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 KTS WITH 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST WHICH PROJECTS A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS INCREASING UP TO 5 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS)
AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND
GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC
VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT
REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AS A
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE PROLONGED
DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL EASE
AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT THANKS TO THE
RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 030752
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
352 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CREATING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS THE COAST
IS NOW FROM 15 TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BE SKIRTING BALD HEAD
ISLAND SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WKND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WKND WITH MID-TO-UPR 80S AND
WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING UP AND ALONG THE SE
U.S. COAST. FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING/DRIFTING NE INTO NRN
FLORIDA...AND THEN INTO GEORGIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PWAT AMOUNTS INCREASE TO ABOUT 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL AREAS AS PER THE MODEL SOUNDINGS BUT REMAINING LESS THAN
2 INCHES INLAND. MODELS SHOW SHARP DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AS YOU MOVE WESTWARD...WITH INTERSTATE 95 ACTING LIKE THE
DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN PCPN OR NO PCPN. ANY SHIFT IN THE MODELS
JUST 30 MILES EITHER WAY CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. WILL MAINLY HEDGE WITH MVFR PERHAPS IFR ALONG THE
COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SOME OF
WHICH MIGHT BE HEAVY AND VFR/MVFR INLAND WITH SOME SHWRS. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE LOW AS MODELS DIFFER WITH SPEED AND STRENGTH OF
LOW COMING OUT OF THE GOM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 KTS WITH 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST WHICH PROJECTS A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS INCREASING UP TO 5 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS)
AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND
GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC
VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT
REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AS A
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE PROLONGED
DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL EASE
AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT THANKS TO THE
RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 030752
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
352 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CREATING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS THE COAST
IS NOW FROM 15 TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BE SKIRTING BALD HEAD
ISLAND SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WKND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WKND WITH MID-TO-UPR 80S AND
WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING UP AND ALONG THE SE
U.S. COAST. FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING/DRIFTING NE INTO NRN
FLORIDA...AND THEN INTO GEORGIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PWAT AMOUNTS INCREASE TO ABOUT 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL AREAS AS PER THE MODEL SOUNDINGS BUT REMAINING LESS THAN
2 INCHES INLAND. MODELS SHOW SHARP DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AS YOU MOVE WESTWARD...WITH INTERSTATE 95 ACTING LIKE THE
DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN PCPN OR NO PCPN. ANY SHIFT IN THE MODELS
JUST 30 MILES EITHER WAY CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. WILL MAINLY HEDGE WITH MVFR PERHAPS IFR ALONG THE
COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SOME OF
WHICH MIGHT BE HEAVY AND VFR/MVFR INLAND WITH SOME SHWRS. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE LOW AS MODELS DIFFER WITH SPEED AND STRENGTH OF
LOW COMING OUT OF THE GOM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 KTS WITH 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST WHICH PROJECTS A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS INCREASING UP TO 5 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS)
AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND
GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC
VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT
REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AS A
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE PROLONGED
DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL EASE
AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT THANKS TO THE
RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 030606
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
206 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS THE COAST
IS NOW FROM 15 TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BE SKIRTING BALD HEAD
ISLAND SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE BIG PLAYER IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME IS THE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO TIMING...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
TO HAVE A SUPERIOR FORECAST WITH ITS SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
ALONG THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS IN PARTICULAR ARE FAR TOO FAST AND HAVE BEEN ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.

A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL REACH THE
CAROLINA BEACHES MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
EXCEED TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST...WHILE SOUTHERLY/ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SUBTLE 300 MB DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NC AND OFF THE
COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST BENEATH THE DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. I HAVE HELD OFF INCREASING POPS BEYOND 50
PERCENT FOR EITHER PERIOD NOT KNOWING HOW SYMMETRIC CONVECTION
WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE LOW...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE
SUBSIDENCE AREAS AROUND LARGE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD
BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP ERODE CLOUDS AND KILL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SURGE VALUES
REMAINING UNDER HALF A FOOT AT THE BEACHES...AND WE ARE MOVING
PAST THE FULL MOON WHICH SHOULD PREVENT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.

FARTHER INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR (WHERE
RAIN IS BADLY NEEDED) THE BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR
EAST. POPS ARE ONLY 10-30 PERCENT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RUN 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL FOR MOST
OF WEDNESDAY BUT LATE IN THE DAY SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAY
IMPINGE UPON US FROM THE WEST. AS THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING THE RADAR SHOULD LIGHT UP PRETTY NICELY
IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT TOO ENAMORED WITH THE
IDEA. THE LOWERED HEIGHTS AND ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE HEAT
EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. FROM THERE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS BOTH A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACH FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A HEALTHY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE DECELERATING MAKING FIGURING OUT HOW QUICKLY
WE DRY OUT DIFFICULT. WILL JUST SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN
OF MORE SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEREAS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING UP AND ALONG THE SE
U.S. COAST. FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING/DRIFTING NE INTO NRN
FLORIDA...AND THEN INTO GEORGIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PWAT AMOUNTS INCREASE TO ABOUT 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL AREAS AS PER THE MODEL SOUNDINGS BUT REMAINING LESS THAN
2 INCHES INLAND. MODELS SHOW SHARP DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AS YOU MOVE WESTWARD...WITH INTERSTATE 95 ACTING LIKE THE
DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN PCPN OR NO PCPN. ANY SHIFT IN THE MODELS
JUST 30 MILES EITHER WAY CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. WILL MAINLY HEDGE WITH MVFR PERHAPS IFR ALONG THE
COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SOME OF
WHICH MIGHT BE HEAVY AND VFR/MVFR INLAND WITH SOME SHWRS. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE LOW AS MODELS DIFFER WITH SPEED AND STRENGTH OF
LOW COMING OUT OF THE GOM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 KTS WITH 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST WHICH PROJECTS A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS INCREASING UP TO 5 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS)
AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND
GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC
VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT
REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY IS COMING UP AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THE GFS MODEL IS THE BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST...SHOWING
A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAN THE NAM OR CANADIAN
MODELS.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE SQUALLY WIND GUSTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET MAINLY IN 6 SECOND SOUTH WAVES
PRODUCED BY THE FETCH BEGINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL AND ENDING AT
OUR BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGHINESS THE MAIN PLAYERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS A
LITTLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE POSSIBLY CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS. THE TROUGH
WILL BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY OPENING THE FORECAST UP TO A MORE
TYPICAL 10 TO 15 KT AND POSSIBLY DECREASING THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY THOUGH ITS SPEED IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY BE DECELERATING. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
LATE PERIOD VEERING AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/MAC





000
FXUS62 KILM 030606
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
206 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS THE COAST
IS NOW FROM 15 TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BE SKIRTING BALD HEAD
ISLAND SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE BIG PLAYER IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME IS THE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO TIMING...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
TO HAVE A SUPERIOR FORECAST WITH ITS SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
ALONG THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS IN PARTICULAR ARE FAR TOO FAST AND HAVE BEEN ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.

A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL REACH THE
CAROLINA BEACHES MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
EXCEED TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST...WHILE SOUTHERLY/ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SUBTLE 300 MB DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NC AND OFF THE
COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST BENEATH THE DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. I HAVE HELD OFF INCREASING POPS BEYOND 50
PERCENT FOR EITHER PERIOD NOT KNOWING HOW SYMMETRIC CONVECTION
WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE LOW...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE
SUBSIDENCE AREAS AROUND LARGE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD
BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP ERODE CLOUDS AND KILL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SURGE VALUES
REMAINING UNDER HALF A FOOT AT THE BEACHES...AND WE ARE MOVING
PAST THE FULL MOON WHICH SHOULD PREVENT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.

FARTHER INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR (WHERE
RAIN IS BADLY NEEDED) THE BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR
EAST. POPS ARE ONLY 10-30 PERCENT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RUN 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL FOR MOST
OF WEDNESDAY BUT LATE IN THE DAY SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAY
IMPINGE UPON US FROM THE WEST. AS THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING THE RADAR SHOULD LIGHT UP PRETTY NICELY
IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT TOO ENAMORED WITH THE
IDEA. THE LOWERED HEIGHTS AND ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE HEAT
EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. FROM THERE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS BOTH A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACH FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A HEALTHY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE DECELERATING MAKING FIGURING OUT HOW QUICKLY
WE DRY OUT DIFFICULT. WILL JUST SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN
OF MORE SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEREAS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING UP AND ALONG THE SE
U.S. COAST. FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING/DRIFTING NE INTO NRN
FLORIDA...AND THEN INTO GEORGIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PWAT AMOUNTS INCREASE TO ABOUT 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL AREAS AS PER THE MODEL SOUNDINGS BUT REMAINING LESS THAN
2 INCHES INLAND. MODELS SHOW SHARP DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AS YOU MOVE WESTWARD...WITH INTERSTATE 95 ACTING LIKE THE
DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN PCPN OR NO PCPN. ANY SHIFT IN THE MODELS
JUST 30 MILES EITHER WAY CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. WILL MAINLY HEDGE WITH MVFR PERHAPS IFR ALONG THE
COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SOME OF
WHICH MIGHT BE HEAVY AND VFR/MVFR INLAND WITH SOME SHWRS. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE LOW AS MODELS DIFFER WITH SPEED AND STRENGTH OF
LOW COMING OUT OF THE GOM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 KTS WITH 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST WHICH PROJECTS A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS INCREASING UP TO 5 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS)
AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND
GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC
VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT
REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY IS COMING UP AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THE GFS MODEL IS THE BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST...SHOWING
A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAN THE NAM OR CANADIAN
MODELS.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE SQUALLY WIND GUSTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET MAINLY IN 6 SECOND SOUTH WAVES
PRODUCED BY THE FETCH BEGINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL AND ENDING AT
OUR BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGHINESS THE MAIN PLAYERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS A
LITTLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE POSSIBLY CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS. THE TROUGH
WILL BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY OPENING THE FORECAST UP TO A MORE
TYPICAL 10 TO 15 KT AND POSSIBLY DECREASING THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY THOUGH ITS SPEED IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY BE DECELERATING. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
LATE PERIOD VEERING AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/MAC




000
FXUS62 KILM 030606
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
206 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS THE COAST
IS NOW FROM 15 TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BE SKIRTING BALD HEAD
ISLAND SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE BIG PLAYER IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME IS THE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO TIMING...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
TO HAVE A SUPERIOR FORECAST WITH ITS SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
ALONG THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS IN PARTICULAR ARE FAR TOO FAST AND HAVE BEEN ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.

A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL REACH THE
CAROLINA BEACHES MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
EXCEED TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST...WHILE SOUTHERLY/ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SUBTLE 300 MB DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NC AND OFF THE
COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST BENEATH THE DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. I HAVE HELD OFF INCREASING POPS BEYOND 50
PERCENT FOR EITHER PERIOD NOT KNOWING HOW SYMMETRIC CONVECTION
WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE LOW...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE
SUBSIDENCE AREAS AROUND LARGE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD
BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP ERODE CLOUDS AND KILL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SURGE VALUES
REMAINING UNDER HALF A FOOT AT THE BEACHES...AND WE ARE MOVING
PAST THE FULL MOON WHICH SHOULD PREVENT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.

FARTHER INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR (WHERE
RAIN IS BADLY NEEDED) THE BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR
EAST. POPS ARE ONLY 10-30 PERCENT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RUN 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL FOR MOST
OF WEDNESDAY BUT LATE IN THE DAY SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAY
IMPINGE UPON US FROM THE WEST. AS THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING THE RADAR SHOULD LIGHT UP PRETTY NICELY
IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT TOO ENAMORED WITH THE
IDEA. THE LOWERED HEIGHTS AND ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE HEAT
EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. FROM THERE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS BOTH A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACH FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A HEALTHY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE DECELERATING MAKING FIGURING OUT HOW QUICKLY
WE DRY OUT DIFFICULT. WILL JUST SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN
OF MORE SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEREAS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING UP AND ALONG THE SE
U.S. COAST. FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING/DRIFTING NE INTO NRN
FLORIDA...AND THEN INTO GEORGIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PWAT AMOUNTS INCREASE TO ABOUT 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL AREAS AS PER THE MODEL SOUNDINGS BUT REMAINING LESS THAN
2 INCHES INLAND. MODELS SHOW SHARP DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AS YOU MOVE WESTWARD...WITH INTERSTATE 95 ACTING LIKE THE
DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN PCPN OR NO PCPN. ANY SHIFT IN THE MODELS
JUST 30 MILES EITHER WAY CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. WILL MAINLY HEDGE WITH MVFR PERHAPS IFR ALONG THE
COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SOME OF
WHICH MIGHT BE HEAVY AND VFR/MVFR INLAND WITH SOME SHWRS. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE LOW AS MODELS DIFFER WITH SPEED AND STRENGTH OF
LOW COMING OUT OF THE GOM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 KTS WITH 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST WHICH PROJECTS A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS INCREASING UP TO 5 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS)
AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND
GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC
VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT
REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY IS COMING UP AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THE GFS MODEL IS THE BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST...SHOWING
A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAN THE NAM OR CANADIAN
MODELS.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE SQUALLY WIND GUSTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET MAINLY IN 6 SECOND SOUTH WAVES
PRODUCED BY THE FETCH BEGINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL AND ENDING AT
OUR BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGHINESS THE MAIN PLAYERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS A
LITTLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE POSSIBLY CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS. THE TROUGH
WILL BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY OPENING THE FORECAST UP TO A MORE
TYPICAL 10 TO 15 KT AND POSSIBLY DECREASING THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY THOUGH ITS SPEED IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY BE DECELERATING. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
LATE PERIOD VEERING AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/MAC





000
FXUS62 KILM 030606
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
206 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS THE COAST
IS NOW FROM 15 TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BE SKIRTING BALD HEAD
ISLAND SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE BIG PLAYER IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME IS THE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO TIMING...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
TO HAVE A SUPERIOR FORECAST WITH ITS SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
ALONG THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS IN PARTICULAR ARE FAR TOO FAST AND HAVE BEEN ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.

A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL REACH THE
CAROLINA BEACHES MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
EXCEED TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST...WHILE SOUTHERLY/ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SUBTLE 300 MB DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NC AND OFF THE
COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST BENEATH THE DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. I HAVE HELD OFF INCREASING POPS BEYOND 50
PERCENT FOR EITHER PERIOD NOT KNOWING HOW SYMMETRIC CONVECTION
WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE LOW...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE
SUBSIDENCE AREAS AROUND LARGE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD
BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP ERODE CLOUDS AND KILL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SURGE VALUES
REMAINING UNDER HALF A FOOT AT THE BEACHES...AND WE ARE MOVING
PAST THE FULL MOON WHICH SHOULD PREVENT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.

FARTHER INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR (WHERE
RAIN IS BADLY NEEDED) THE BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR
EAST. POPS ARE ONLY 10-30 PERCENT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RUN 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL FOR MOST
OF WEDNESDAY BUT LATE IN THE DAY SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAY
IMPINGE UPON US FROM THE WEST. AS THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING THE RADAR SHOULD LIGHT UP PRETTY NICELY
IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT TOO ENAMORED WITH THE
IDEA. THE LOWERED HEIGHTS AND ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE HEAT
EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. FROM THERE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS BOTH A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACH FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A HEALTHY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE DECELERATING MAKING FIGURING OUT HOW QUICKLY
WE DRY OUT DIFFICULT. WILL JUST SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN
OF MORE SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEREAS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING UP AND ALONG THE SE
U.S. COAST. FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING/DRIFTING NE INTO NRN
FLORIDA...AND THEN INTO GEORGIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PWAT AMOUNTS INCREASE TO ABOUT 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL AREAS AS PER THE MODEL SOUNDINGS BUT REMAINING LESS THAN
2 INCHES INLAND. MODELS SHOW SHARP DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AS YOU MOVE WESTWARD...WITH INTERSTATE 95 ACTING LIKE THE
DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN PCPN OR NO PCPN. ANY SHIFT IN THE MODELS
JUST 30 MILES EITHER WAY CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. WILL MAINLY HEDGE WITH MVFR PERHAPS IFR ALONG THE
COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SOME OF
WHICH MIGHT BE HEAVY AND VFR/MVFR INLAND WITH SOME SHWRS. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE LOW AS MODELS DIFFER WITH SPEED AND STRENGTH OF
LOW COMING OUT OF THE GOM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 KTS WITH 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST WHICH PROJECTS A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS INCREASING UP TO 5 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS)
AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND
GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC
VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT
REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY IS COMING UP AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THE GFS MODEL IS THE BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST...SHOWING
A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAN THE NAM OR CANADIAN
MODELS.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE SQUALLY WIND GUSTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET MAINLY IN 6 SECOND SOUTH WAVES
PRODUCED BY THE FETCH BEGINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL AND ENDING AT
OUR BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGHINESS THE MAIN PLAYERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS A
LITTLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE POSSIBLY CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS. THE TROUGH
WILL BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY OPENING THE FORECAST UP TO A MORE
TYPICAL 10 TO 15 KT AND POSSIBLY DECREASING THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY THOUGH ITS SPEED IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY BE DECELERATING. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
LATE PERIOD VEERING AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/MAC




000
FXUS62 KILM 030239
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS THE COAST
IS NOW FROM 15 TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BE SKIRTING BALD HEAD
ISLAND SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE BIG PLAYER IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME IS THE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO TIMING...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
TO HAVE A SUPERIOR FORECAST WITH ITS SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
ALONG THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS IN PARTICULAR ARE FAR TOO FAST AND HAVE BEEN ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.

A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL REACH THE
CAROLINA BEACHES MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
EXCEED TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST...WHILE SOUTHERLY/ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SUBTLE 300 MB DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NC AND OFF THE
COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST BENEATH THE DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. I HAVE HELD OFF INCREASING POPS BEYOND 50
PERCENT FOR EITHER PERIOD NOT KNOWING HOW SYMMETRIC CONVECTION
WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE LOW...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE
SUBSIDENCE AREAS AROUND LARGE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD
BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP ERODE CLOUDS AND KILL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SURGE VALUES
REMAINING UNDER HALF A FOOT AT THE BEACHES...AND WE ARE MOVING
PAST THE FULL MOON WHICH SHOULD PREVENT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.

FARTHER INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR (WHERE
RAIN IS BADLY NEEDED) THE BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR
EAST. POPS ARE ONLY 10-30 PERCENT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RUN 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL FOR MOST
OF WEDNESDAY BUT LATE IN THE DAY SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAY
IMPINGE UPON US FROM THE WEST. AS THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING THE RADAR SHOULD LIGHT UP PRETTY NICELY
IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT TOO ENAMORED WITH THE
IDEA. THE LOWERED HEIGHTS AND ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE HEAT
EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. FROM THERE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS BOTH A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACH FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A HEALTHY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE DECELERATING MAKING FIGURING OUT HOW QUICKLY
WE DRY OUT DIFFICULT. WILL JUST SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN
OF MORE SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEREAS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WILL MAINTAIN THE VFR FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING. SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE GOM TO MOVE TO THE NE AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION UP THE
COAST ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND SPEED OT LOW TRACKING
TO THE NE WITH THE NAM SEEMING TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH SYSTEM
BEING TOO DEEP AND TOO WET. WILL FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WITH
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
COASTAL TERMINALS BEING WETTER THAN THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL
INCREASE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 06Z ALONG THE COAST AND
MENTION MVFR IN FOG ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS.

MVFR CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z WITH
TEMPO MVFR INLAND. CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 KTS WITH 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST WHICH PROJECTS A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS INCREASING UP TO 5 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS)
AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND
GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC
VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT
REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY IS COMING UP AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THE GFS MODEL IS THE BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST...SHOWING
A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAN THE NAM OR CANADIAN
MODELS.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE SQUALLY WIND GUSTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET MAINLY IN 6 SECOND SOUTH WAVES
PRODUCED BY THE FETCH BEGINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL AND ENDING AT
OUR BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGHINESS THE MAIN PLAYERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS A
LITTLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE POSSIBLY CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS. THE TROUGH
WILL BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY OPENING THE FORECAST UP TO A MORE
TYPICAL 10 TO 15 KT AND POSSIBLY DECREASING THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY THOUGH ITS SPEED IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY BE DECELERATING. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
LATE PERIOD VEERING AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...REK/TRA/MBB/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 030239
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS THE COAST
IS NOW FROM 15 TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BE SKIRTING BALD HEAD
ISLAND SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE BIG PLAYER IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME IS THE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO TIMING...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
TO HAVE A SUPERIOR FORECAST WITH ITS SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
ALONG THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS IN PARTICULAR ARE FAR TOO FAST AND HAVE BEEN ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.

A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL REACH THE
CAROLINA BEACHES MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
EXCEED TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST...WHILE SOUTHERLY/ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SUBTLE 300 MB DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NC AND OFF THE
COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST BENEATH THE DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. I HAVE HELD OFF INCREASING POPS BEYOND 50
PERCENT FOR EITHER PERIOD NOT KNOWING HOW SYMMETRIC CONVECTION
WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE LOW...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE
SUBSIDENCE AREAS AROUND LARGE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD
BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP ERODE CLOUDS AND KILL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SURGE VALUES
REMAINING UNDER HALF A FOOT AT THE BEACHES...AND WE ARE MOVING
PAST THE FULL MOON WHICH SHOULD PREVENT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.

FARTHER INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR (WHERE
RAIN IS BADLY NEEDED) THE BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR
EAST. POPS ARE ONLY 10-30 PERCENT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RUN 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL FOR MOST
OF WEDNESDAY BUT LATE IN THE DAY SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAY
IMPINGE UPON US FROM THE WEST. AS THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING THE RADAR SHOULD LIGHT UP PRETTY NICELY
IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT TOO ENAMORED WITH THE
IDEA. THE LOWERED HEIGHTS AND ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE HEAT
EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. FROM THERE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS BOTH A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACH FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A HEALTHY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE DECELERATING MAKING FIGURING OUT HOW QUICKLY
WE DRY OUT DIFFICULT. WILL JUST SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN
OF MORE SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEREAS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WILL MAINTAIN THE VFR FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING. SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE GOM TO MOVE TO THE NE AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION UP THE
COAST ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND SPEED OT LOW TRACKING
TO THE NE WITH THE NAM SEEMING TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH SYSTEM
BEING TOO DEEP AND TOO WET. WILL FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WITH
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
COASTAL TERMINALS BEING WETTER THAN THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL
INCREASE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 06Z ALONG THE COAST AND
MENTION MVFR IN FOG ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS.

MVFR CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z WITH
TEMPO MVFR INLAND. CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 KTS WITH 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST WHICH PROJECTS A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS INCREASING UP TO 5 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS)
AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND
GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC
VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT
REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY IS COMING UP AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THE GFS MODEL IS THE BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST...SHOWING
A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAN THE NAM OR CANADIAN
MODELS.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE SQUALLY WIND GUSTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET MAINLY IN 6 SECOND SOUTH WAVES
PRODUCED BY THE FETCH BEGINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL AND ENDING AT
OUR BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGHINESS THE MAIN PLAYERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS A
LITTLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE POSSIBLY CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS. THE TROUGH
WILL BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY OPENING THE FORECAST UP TO A MORE
TYPICAL 10 TO 15 KT AND POSSIBLY DECREASING THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY THOUGH ITS SPEED IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY BE DECELERATING. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
LATE PERIOD VEERING AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...REK/TRA/MBB/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 030239
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS THE COAST
IS NOW FROM 15 TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BE SKIRTING BALD HEAD
ISLAND SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE BIG PLAYER IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME IS THE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO TIMING...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
TO HAVE A SUPERIOR FORECAST WITH ITS SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
ALONG THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS IN PARTICULAR ARE FAR TOO FAST AND HAVE BEEN ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.

A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL REACH THE
CAROLINA BEACHES MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
EXCEED TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST...WHILE SOUTHERLY/ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SUBTLE 300 MB DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NC AND OFF THE
COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST BENEATH THE DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. I HAVE HELD OFF INCREASING POPS BEYOND 50
PERCENT FOR EITHER PERIOD NOT KNOWING HOW SYMMETRIC CONVECTION
WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE LOW...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE
SUBSIDENCE AREAS AROUND LARGE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD
BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP ERODE CLOUDS AND KILL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SURGE VALUES
REMAINING UNDER HALF A FOOT AT THE BEACHES...AND WE ARE MOVING
PAST THE FULL MOON WHICH SHOULD PREVENT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.

FARTHER INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR (WHERE
RAIN IS BADLY NEEDED) THE BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR
EAST. POPS ARE ONLY 10-30 PERCENT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RUN 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL FOR MOST
OF WEDNESDAY BUT LATE IN THE DAY SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAY
IMPINGE UPON US FROM THE WEST. AS THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING THE RADAR SHOULD LIGHT UP PRETTY NICELY
IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT TOO ENAMORED WITH THE
IDEA. THE LOWERED HEIGHTS AND ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE HEAT
EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. FROM THERE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS BOTH A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACH FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A HEALTHY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE DECELERATING MAKING FIGURING OUT HOW QUICKLY
WE DRY OUT DIFFICULT. WILL JUST SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN
OF MORE SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEREAS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WILL MAINTAIN THE VFR FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING. SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE GOM TO MOVE TO THE NE AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION UP THE
COAST ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND SPEED OT LOW TRACKING
TO THE NE WITH THE NAM SEEMING TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH SYSTEM
BEING TOO DEEP AND TOO WET. WILL FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WITH
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
COASTAL TERMINALS BEING WETTER THAN THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL
INCREASE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 06Z ALONG THE COAST AND
MENTION MVFR IN FOG ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS.

MVFR CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z WITH
TEMPO MVFR INLAND. CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 KTS WITH 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST WHICH PROJECTS A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS INCREASING UP TO 5 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS)
AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND
GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC
VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT
REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY IS COMING UP AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THE GFS MODEL IS THE BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST...SHOWING
A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAN THE NAM OR CANADIAN
MODELS.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE SQUALLY WIND GUSTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET MAINLY IN 6 SECOND SOUTH WAVES
PRODUCED BY THE FETCH BEGINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL AND ENDING AT
OUR BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGHINESS THE MAIN PLAYERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS A
LITTLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE POSSIBLY CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS. THE TROUGH
WILL BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY OPENING THE FORECAST UP TO A MORE
TYPICAL 10 TO 15 KT AND POSSIBLY DECREASING THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY THOUGH ITS SPEED IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY BE DECELERATING. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
LATE PERIOD VEERING AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...REK/TRA/MBB/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 030239
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS THE COAST
IS NOW FROM 15 TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BE SKIRTING BALD HEAD
ISLAND SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE BIG PLAYER IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME IS THE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO TIMING...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
TO HAVE A SUPERIOR FORECAST WITH ITS SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
ALONG THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS IN PARTICULAR ARE FAR TOO FAST AND HAVE BEEN ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.

A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL REACH THE
CAROLINA BEACHES MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
EXCEED TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST...WHILE SOUTHERLY/ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SUBTLE 300 MB DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NC AND OFF THE
COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST BENEATH THE DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. I HAVE HELD OFF INCREASING POPS BEYOND 50
PERCENT FOR EITHER PERIOD NOT KNOWING HOW SYMMETRIC CONVECTION
WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE LOW...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE
SUBSIDENCE AREAS AROUND LARGE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD
BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP ERODE CLOUDS AND KILL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SURGE VALUES
REMAINING UNDER HALF A FOOT AT THE BEACHES...AND WE ARE MOVING
PAST THE FULL MOON WHICH SHOULD PREVENT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.

FARTHER INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR (WHERE
RAIN IS BADLY NEEDED) THE BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR
EAST. POPS ARE ONLY 10-30 PERCENT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RUN 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL FOR MOST
OF WEDNESDAY BUT LATE IN THE DAY SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAY
IMPINGE UPON US FROM THE WEST. AS THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING THE RADAR SHOULD LIGHT UP PRETTY NICELY
IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT TOO ENAMORED WITH THE
IDEA. THE LOWERED HEIGHTS AND ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE HEAT
EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. FROM THERE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS BOTH A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACH FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A HEALTHY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE DECELERATING MAKING FIGURING OUT HOW QUICKLY
WE DRY OUT DIFFICULT. WILL JUST SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN
OF MORE SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEREAS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WILL MAINTAIN THE VFR FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING. SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE GOM TO MOVE TO THE NE AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION UP THE
COAST ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND SPEED OT LOW TRACKING
TO THE NE WITH THE NAM SEEMING TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH SYSTEM
BEING TOO DEEP AND TOO WET. WILL FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WITH
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
COASTAL TERMINALS BEING WETTER THAN THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL
INCREASE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 06Z ALONG THE COAST AND
MENTION MVFR IN FOG ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS.

MVFR CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z WITH
TEMPO MVFR INLAND. CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 KTS WITH 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST WHICH PROJECTS A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS INCREASING UP TO 5 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS)
AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND
GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC
VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT
REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY IS COMING UP AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THE GFS MODEL IS THE BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST...SHOWING
A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAN THE NAM OR CANADIAN
MODELS.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE SQUALLY WIND GUSTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET MAINLY IN 6 SECOND SOUTH WAVES
PRODUCED BY THE FETCH BEGINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL AND ENDING AT
OUR BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGHINESS THE MAIN PLAYERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS A
LITTLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE POSSIBLY CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS. THE TROUGH
WILL BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY OPENING THE FORECAST UP TO A MORE
TYPICAL 10 TO 15 KT AND POSSIBLY DECREASING THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY THOUGH ITS SPEED IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY BE DECELERATING. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
LATE PERIOD VEERING AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...REK/TRA/MBB/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 022357
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
757 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY FADED FOR THE
EVENING. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...RAINFALL WE
RECEIVE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES NE
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA. HAVE TWEAKED POPS A
BIT BUT IN REALITY NOT CHANGING EXPECTATIONS TOO MUCH. AS STATED
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...STILL LOOKING AT GOOD CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE COAST WITH LESSER CHANCES INLAND.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE BIG PLAYER IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME IS THE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALAHASSEE FLORIDA. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO TIMING...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
TO HAVE A SUPERIOR FORECAST WITH ITS SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
ALONG THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS IN PARTICULAR ARE FAR TOO FAST AND HAVE BEEN ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.

A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL REACH THE
CAROLINA BEACHES MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
EXCEED TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST...WHILE SOUTHERLY/ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SUBTLE 300 MB DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NC AND OFF THE
COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST BENEATH THE DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. I HAVE HELD OFF INCREASING POPS BEYOND 50
PERCENT FOR EITHER PERIOD NOT KNOWING HOW SYMMETRIC CONVECTION
WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE LOW...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE
SUBSIDENCE AREAS AROUND LARGE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD
BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP ERODE CLOUDS AND KILL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SURGE VALUES
REMAINING UNDER HALF A FOOT AT THE BEACHES...AND WE ARE MOVING
PAST THE FULL MOON WHICH SHOULD PREVENT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.

FARTHER INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR (WHERE
RAIN IS BADLY NEEDED) THE BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR
EAST. POPS ARE ONLY 10-30 PERCENT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RUN 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL FOR MOST
OF WEDNESDAY BUT LATE IN THE DAY SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAY
IMPINGE UPON US FROM THE WEST. AS THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING THE RADAR SHOULD LIGHT UP PRETTY NICELY
IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT TOO ENAMORED WITH THE
IDEA. THE LOWERED HEIGHTS AND ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE HEAT
EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. FROM THERE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS BOTH A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACH FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A HEALTHY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE DECELERATING MAKING FIGURING OUT HOW QUICKLY
WE DRY OUT DIFFICULT. WILL JUST SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN
OF MORE SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEREAS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WILL MAINTAIN THE VFR FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING. SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE GOM TO MOVE TO THE NE AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION UP THE
COAST ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND SPEED OT LOW TRACKING
TO THE NE WITH THE NAM SEEMING TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH SYSTEM
BEING TOO DEEP AND TOO WET. WILL FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WITH
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
COASTAL TERMINALS BEING WETTER THAN THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL
INCREASE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 06Z ALONG THE COAST AND
MENTION MVFR IN FOG ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS.

MVFR CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z WITH
TEMPO MVFR INLAND. CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS)
AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND
GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC
VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT
REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY IS COMING UP AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THE GFS MODEL IS THE BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST...SHOWING
A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAN THE NAM OR CANADIAN
MODELS.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE SQUALLY WIND GUSTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET MAINLY IN 6 SECOND SOUTH WAVES
PRODUCED BY THE FETCH BEGINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL AND ENDING AT
OUR BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGHINESS THE MAIN PLAYERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS A
LITTLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE POSSIBLY CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS. THE TROUGH
WILL BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY OPENING THE FORECAST UP TO A MORE
TYPICAL 10 TO 15 KT AND POSSIBLY DECREASING THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY THOUGH ITS SPEED IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY BE DECELERATING. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
LATE PERIOD VEERING AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...REK/TRA/MBB/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 022357
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
757 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY FADED FOR THE
EVENING. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...RAINFALL WE
RECEIVE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES NE
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA. HAVE TWEAKED POPS A
BIT BUT IN REALITY NOT CHANGING EXPECTATIONS TOO MUCH. AS STATED
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...STILL LOOKING AT GOOD CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE COAST WITH LESSER CHANCES INLAND.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE BIG PLAYER IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME IS THE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALAHASSEE FLORIDA. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO TIMING...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
TO HAVE A SUPERIOR FORECAST WITH ITS SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
ALONG THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS IN PARTICULAR ARE FAR TOO FAST AND HAVE BEEN ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.

A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL REACH THE
CAROLINA BEACHES MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
EXCEED TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST...WHILE SOUTHERLY/ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SUBTLE 300 MB DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NC AND OFF THE
COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST BENEATH THE DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. I HAVE HELD OFF INCREASING POPS BEYOND 50
PERCENT FOR EITHER PERIOD NOT KNOWING HOW SYMMETRIC CONVECTION
WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE LOW...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE
SUBSIDENCE AREAS AROUND LARGE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD
BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP ERODE CLOUDS AND KILL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SURGE VALUES
REMAINING UNDER HALF A FOOT AT THE BEACHES...AND WE ARE MOVING
PAST THE FULL MOON WHICH SHOULD PREVENT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.

FARTHER INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR (WHERE
RAIN IS BADLY NEEDED) THE BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR
EAST. POPS ARE ONLY 10-30 PERCENT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RUN 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL FOR MOST
OF WEDNESDAY BUT LATE IN THE DAY SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAY
IMPINGE UPON US FROM THE WEST. AS THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING THE RADAR SHOULD LIGHT UP PRETTY NICELY
IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT TOO ENAMORED WITH THE
IDEA. THE LOWERED HEIGHTS AND ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE HEAT
EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. FROM THERE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS BOTH A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACH FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A HEALTHY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE DECELERATING MAKING FIGURING OUT HOW QUICKLY
WE DRY OUT DIFFICULT. WILL JUST SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN
OF MORE SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEREAS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WILL MAINTAIN THE VFR FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING. SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE GOM TO MOVE TO THE NE AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION UP THE
COAST ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND SPEED OT LOW TRACKING
TO THE NE WITH THE NAM SEEMING TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH SYSTEM
BEING TOO DEEP AND TOO WET. WILL FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WITH
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
COASTAL TERMINALS BEING WETTER THAN THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL
INCREASE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 06Z ALONG THE COAST AND
MENTION MVFR IN FOG ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS.

MVFR CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z WITH
TEMPO MVFR INLAND. CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS)
AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND
GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC
VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT
REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY IS COMING UP AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THE GFS MODEL IS THE BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST...SHOWING
A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAN THE NAM OR CANADIAN
MODELS.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE SQUALLY WIND GUSTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET MAINLY IN 6 SECOND SOUTH WAVES
PRODUCED BY THE FETCH BEGINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL AND ENDING AT
OUR BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGHINESS THE MAIN PLAYERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS A
LITTLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE POSSIBLY CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS. THE TROUGH
WILL BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY OPENING THE FORECAST UP TO A MORE
TYPICAL 10 TO 15 KT AND POSSIBLY DECREASING THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY THOUGH ITS SPEED IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY BE DECELERATING. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
LATE PERIOD VEERING AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...REK/TRA/MBB/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 022357
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
757 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY FADED FOR THE
EVENING. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...RAINFALL WE
RECEIVE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES NE
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA. HAVE TWEAKED POPS A
BIT BUT IN REALITY NOT CHANGING EXPECTATIONS TOO MUCH. AS STATED
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...STILL LOOKING AT GOOD CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE COAST WITH LESSER CHANCES INLAND.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE BIG PLAYER IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME IS THE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALAHASSEE FLORIDA. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO TIMING...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
TO HAVE A SUPERIOR FORECAST WITH ITS SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
ALONG THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS IN PARTICULAR ARE FAR TOO FAST AND HAVE BEEN ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.

A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL REACH THE
CAROLINA BEACHES MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
EXCEED TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST...WHILE SOUTHERLY/ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SUBTLE 300 MB DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NC AND OFF THE
COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST BENEATH THE DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. I HAVE HELD OFF INCREASING POPS BEYOND 50
PERCENT FOR EITHER PERIOD NOT KNOWING HOW SYMMETRIC CONVECTION
WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE LOW...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE
SUBSIDENCE AREAS AROUND LARGE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD
BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP ERODE CLOUDS AND KILL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SURGE VALUES
REMAINING UNDER HALF A FOOT AT THE BEACHES...AND WE ARE MOVING
PAST THE FULL MOON WHICH SHOULD PREVENT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.

FARTHER INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR (WHERE
RAIN IS BADLY NEEDED) THE BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR
EAST. POPS ARE ONLY 10-30 PERCENT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RUN 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL FOR MOST
OF WEDNESDAY BUT LATE IN THE DAY SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAY
IMPINGE UPON US FROM THE WEST. AS THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING THE RADAR SHOULD LIGHT UP PRETTY NICELY
IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT TOO ENAMORED WITH THE
IDEA. THE LOWERED HEIGHTS AND ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE HEAT
EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. FROM THERE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS BOTH A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACH FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A HEALTHY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE DECELERATING MAKING FIGURING OUT HOW QUICKLY
WE DRY OUT DIFFICULT. WILL JUST SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN
OF MORE SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEREAS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WILL MAINTAIN THE VFR FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING. SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE GOM TO MOVE TO THE NE AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION UP THE
COAST ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND SPEED OT LOW TRACKING
TO THE NE WITH THE NAM SEEMING TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH SYSTEM
BEING TOO DEEP AND TOO WET. WILL FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WITH
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
COASTAL TERMINALS BEING WETTER THAN THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL
INCREASE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 06Z ALONG THE COAST AND
MENTION MVFR IN FOG ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS.

MVFR CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z WITH
TEMPO MVFR INLAND. CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS)
AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND
GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC
VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT
REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY IS COMING UP AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THE GFS MODEL IS THE BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST...SHOWING
A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAN THE NAM OR CANADIAN
MODELS.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE SQUALLY WIND GUSTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET MAINLY IN 6 SECOND SOUTH WAVES
PRODUCED BY THE FETCH BEGINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL AND ENDING AT
OUR BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGHINESS THE MAIN PLAYERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS A
LITTLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE POSSIBLY CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS. THE TROUGH
WILL BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY OPENING THE FORECAST UP TO A MORE
TYPICAL 10 TO 15 KT AND POSSIBLY DECREASING THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY THOUGH ITS SPEED IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY BE DECELERATING. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
LATE PERIOD VEERING AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...REK/TRA/MBB/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 022357
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
757 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY FADED FOR THE
EVENING. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...RAINFALL WE
RECEIVE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES NE
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA. HAVE TWEAKED POPS A
BIT BUT IN REALITY NOT CHANGING EXPECTATIONS TOO MUCH. AS STATED
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...STILL LOOKING AT GOOD CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE COAST WITH LESSER CHANCES INLAND.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE BIG PLAYER IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME IS THE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALAHASSEE FLORIDA. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO TIMING...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
TO HAVE A SUPERIOR FORECAST WITH ITS SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
ALONG THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS IN PARTICULAR ARE FAR TOO FAST AND HAVE BEEN ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.

A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL REACH THE
CAROLINA BEACHES MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
EXCEED TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST...WHILE SOUTHERLY/ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SUBTLE 300 MB DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NC AND OFF THE
COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST BENEATH THE DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. I HAVE HELD OFF INCREASING POPS BEYOND 50
PERCENT FOR EITHER PERIOD NOT KNOWING HOW SYMMETRIC CONVECTION
WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE LOW...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE
SUBSIDENCE AREAS AROUND LARGE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD
BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP ERODE CLOUDS AND KILL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SURGE VALUES
REMAINING UNDER HALF A FOOT AT THE BEACHES...AND WE ARE MOVING
PAST THE FULL MOON WHICH SHOULD PREVENT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.

FARTHER INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR (WHERE
RAIN IS BADLY NEEDED) THE BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR
EAST. POPS ARE ONLY 10-30 PERCENT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RUN 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL FOR MOST
OF WEDNESDAY BUT LATE IN THE DAY SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAY
IMPINGE UPON US FROM THE WEST. AS THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING THE RADAR SHOULD LIGHT UP PRETTY NICELY
IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT TOO ENAMORED WITH THE
IDEA. THE LOWERED HEIGHTS AND ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE HEAT
EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. FROM THERE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS BOTH A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACH FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A HEALTHY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE DECELERATING MAKING FIGURING OUT HOW QUICKLY
WE DRY OUT DIFFICULT. WILL JUST SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN
OF MORE SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEREAS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WILL MAINTAIN THE VFR FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING. SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE GOM TO MOVE TO THE NE AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION UP THE
COAST ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND SPEED OT LOW TRACKING
TO THE NE WITH THE NAM SEEMING TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH SYSTEM
BEING TOO DEEP AND TOO WET. WILL FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WITH
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
COASTAL TERMINALS BEING WETTER THAN THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL
INCREASE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 06Z ALONG THE COAST AND
MENTION MVFR IN FOG ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS.

MVFR CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z WITH
TEMPO MVFR INLAND. CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS)
AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND
GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC
VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT
REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY IS COMING UP AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THE GFS MODEL IS THE BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST...SHOWING
A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAN THE NAM OR CANADIAN
MODELS.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE SQUALLY WIND GUSTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET MAINLY IN 6 SECOND SOUTH WAVES
PRODUCED BY THE FETCH BEGINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL AND ENDING AT
OUR BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGHINESS THE MAIN PLAYERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS A
LITTLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE POSSIBLY CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS. THE TROUGH
WILL BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY OPENING THE FORECAST UP TO A MORE
TYPICAL 10 TO 15 KT AND POSSIBLY DECREASING THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY THOUGH ITS SPEED IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY BE DECELERATING. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
LATE PERIOD VEERING AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...REK/TRA/MBB/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 021919
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
319 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...CONVECTION IS FILLING IN ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND THE DRYLINE FEATURE JUST INLAND. I HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ADDRESS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
SPITTING OUT BOUNDARIES AND AN INTERESTING BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING
THE COAST FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF STREAM SO ACTIVITY COULD
LAST A WHILE.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE BIG PLAYER IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME IS THE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO TIMING...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
TO HAVE A SUPERIOR FORECAST WITH ITS SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
ALONG THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS IN PARTICULAR ARE FAR TOO FAST AND HAVE BEEN ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.

A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL REACH THE
CAROLINA BEACHES MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
EXCEED TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST...WHILE SOUTHERLY/ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SUBTLE 300 MB DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NC AND OFF THE
COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST BENEATH THE DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. I HAVE HELD OFF INCREASING POPS BEYOND 50
PERCENT FOR EITHER PERIOD NOT KNOWING HOW SYMMETRIC CONVECTION
WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE LOW...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE
SUBSIDENCE AREAS AROUND LARGE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD
BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP ERODE CLOUDS AND KILL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SURGE VALUES
REMAINING UNDER HALF A FOOT AT THE BEACHES...AND WE ARE MOVING
PAST THE FULL MOON WHICH SHOULD PREVENT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.

FARTHER INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR (WHERE
RAIN IS BADLY NEEDED) THE BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR
EAST. POPS ARE ONLY 10-30 PERCENT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RUN 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL FOR MOST
OF WEDNESDAY BUT LATE IN THE DAY SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAY
IMPINGE UPON US FROM THE WEST. AS THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING THE RADAR SHOULD LIGHT UP PRETTY NICELY
IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT TOO ENAMORED WITH THE
IDEA. THE LOWERED HEIGHTS AND ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE HEAT
EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. FROM THERE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS BOTH A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACH FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A HEALTHY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE DECELERATING MAKING FIGURING OUT HOW QUICKLY
WE DRY OUT DIFFICULT. WILL JUST SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN
OF MORE SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEREAS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR AND VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED. NE-E WINDS WILL BECOME
SE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT
MOVES INLAND. THE CHANCE OF VCSH IS LOW AT THE TERMINALS
HOWEVER...WITH AN EVEN LESS CHANCE OF VCTS.

THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SW
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT Z AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE SW. TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY KMYR/KCRE DUE TO REDUCED VSBYS
BEFORE 14Z. AFTER 14Z BEST CHANCE OF MVFR WILL BE AT KILM AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NE UP THE COAST. CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW
ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN
IS STILL RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM
WINDS) AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE
DIRECTION AND GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A
10-15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER
0600 UTC VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL
COMPONENT REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY IS COMING UP AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THE GFS MODEL IS THE BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST...SHOWING
A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAN THE NAM OR CANADIAN
MODELS.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE SQUALLY WIND GUSTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET MAINLY IN 6 SECOND SOUTH WAVES
PRODUCED BY THE FETCH BEGINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL AND ENDING AT
OUR BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGHINESS THE MAIN PLAYERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS A
LITTLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE POSSIBLY CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS. THE TROUGH
WILL BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY OPENING THE FORECAST UP TO A MORE
TYPICAL 10 TO 15 KT AND POSSIBLY DECREASING THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY THOUGH ITS SPEED IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY BE DECELERATING. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
LATE PERIOD VEERING AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 021919
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
319 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...CONVECTION IS FILLING IN ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND THE DRYLINE FEATURE JUST INLAND. I HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ADDRESS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
SPITTING OUT BOUNDARIES AND AN INTERESTING BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING
THE COAST FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF STREAM SO ACTIVITY COULD
LAST A WHILE.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE BIG PLAYER IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME IS THE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO TIMING...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
TO HAVE A SUPERIOR FORECAST WITH ITS SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
ALONG THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN
MODELS IN PARTICULAR ARE FAR TOO FAST AND HAVE BEEN ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.

A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL REACH THE
CAROLINA BEACHES MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
EXCEED TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST...WHILE SOUTHERLY/ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SUBTLE 300 MB DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NC AND OFF THE
COAST MONDAY MORNING WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST BENEATH THE DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. I HAVE HELD OFF INCREASING POPS BEYOND 50
PERCENT FOR EITHER PERIOD NOT KNOWING HOW SYMMETRIC CONVECTION
WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE LOW...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE
SUBSIDENCE AREAS AROUND LARGE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD
BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP ERODE CLOUDS AND KILL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SURGE VALUES
REMAINING UNDER HALF A FOOT AT THE BEACHES...AND WE ARE MOVING
PAST THE FULL MOON WHICH SHOULD PREVENT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.

FARTHER INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR (WHERE
RAIN IS BADLY NEEDED) THE BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR
EAST. POPS ARE ONLY 10-30 PERCENT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RUN 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL FOR MOST
OF WEDNESDAY BUT LATE IN THE DAY SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAY
IMPINGE UPON US FROM THE WEST. AS THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING THE RADAR SHOULD LIGHT UP PRETTY NICELY
IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT TOO ENAMORED WITH THE
IDEA. THE LOWERED HEIGHTS AND ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE HEAT
EVEN IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. FROM THERE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS BOTH A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACH FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE
A HEALTHY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN. THE FRONT WILL BE DECELERATING MAKING FIGURING OUT HOW QUICKLY
WE DRY OUT DIFFICULT. WILL JUST SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN
OF MORE SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEREAS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE WATER MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR AND VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED. NE-E WINDS WILL BECOME
SE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT
MOVES INLAND. THE CHANCE OF VCSH IS LOW AT THE TERMINALS
HOWEVER...WITH AN EVEN LESS CHANCE OF VCTS.

THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SW
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT Z AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE SW. TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY KMYR/KCRE DUE TO REDUCED VSBYS
BEFORE 14Z. AFTER 14Z BEST CHANCE OF MVFR WILL BE AT KILM AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NE UP THE COAST. CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW
ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN
IS STILL RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM
WINDS) AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE
DIRECTION AND GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A
10-15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER
0600 UTC VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL
COMPONENT REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A ROUGH COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY IS COMING UP AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THE GFS MODEL IS THE BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST...SHOWING
A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAN THE NAM OR CANADIAN
MODELS.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE SQUALLY WIND GUSTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET MAINLY IN 6 SECOND SOUTH WAVES
PRODUCED BY THE FETCH BEGINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL AND ENDING AT
OUR BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGHINESS THE MAIN PLAYERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS A
LITTLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE POSSIBLY CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS. THE TROUGH
WILL BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY OPENING THE FORECAST UP TO A MORE
TYPICAL 10 TO 15 KT AND POSSIBLY DECREASING THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY THOUGH ITS SPEED IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY BE DECELERATING. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
LATE PERIOD VEERING AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021719
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWING A NICE END
TO THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BRING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED WELL
OFFSHORE...AN IMPORTANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS SEEMS TO BE ACTING LIKE A DRYLINE FEATURE AND THE NAM
HAS CONVECTION FIRING ALONG IT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
IT MAY OCCUR ONCE AGAIN THIS PM. I HAVE ADDED POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THIS LINE EXTENDING FROM PENDER COUNTY SOUTH
AND WEST TO FLORENCE. AFTER THIS THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDCOVER MOVING
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR AND VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED. NE-E WINDS WILL BECOME
SE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT
MOVES INLAND. THE CHANCE OF VCSH IS LOW AT THE TERMINALS
HOWEVER...WITH AN EVEN LESS CHANCE OF VCTS.

THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SW
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT Z AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE SW. TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY KMYR/KCRE DUE TO REDUCED VSBYS
BEFORE 14Z. AFTER 14Z BEST CHANCE OF MVFR WILL BE AT KILM AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NE UP THE COAST. CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW
ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN
IS STILL RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM
WINDS) AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE
DIRECTION AND GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A
10-15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER
0600 UTC VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL
COMPONENT REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021719
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWING A NICE END
TO THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BRING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED WELL
OFFSHORE...AN IMPORTANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS SEEMS TO BE ACTING LIKE A DRYLINE FEATURE AND THE NAM
HAS CONVECTION FIRING ALONG IT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
IT MAY OCCUR ONCE AGAIN THIS PM. I HAVE ADDED POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THIS LINE EXTENDING FROM PENDER COUNTY SOUTH
AND WEST TO FLORENCE. AFTER THIS THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDCOVER MOVING
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR AND VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED. NE-E WINDS WILL BECOME
SE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT
MOVES INLAND. THE CHANCE OF VCSH IS LOW AT THE TERMINALS
HOWEVER...WITH AN EVEN LESS CHANCE OF VCTS.

THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SW
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT Z AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE SW. TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY KMYR/KCRE DUE TO REDUCED VSBYS
BEFORE 14Z. AFTER 14Z BEST CHANCE OF MVFR WILL BE AT KILM AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NE UP THE COAST. CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW
ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN
IS STILL RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM
WINDS) AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE
DIRECTION AND GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A
10-15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER
0600 UTC VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL
COMPONENT REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 021719
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWING A NICE END
TO THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BRING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED WELL
OFFSHORE...AN IMPORTANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS SEEMS TO BE ACTING LIKE A DRYLINE FEATURE AND THE NAM
HAS CONVECTION FIRING ALONG IT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
IT MAY OCCUR ONCE AGAIN THIS PM. I HAVE ADDED POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THIS LINE EXTENDING FROM PENDER COUNTY SOUTH
AND WEST TO FLORENCE. AFTER THIS THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDCOVER MOVING
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR AND VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED. NE-E WINDS WILL BECOME
SE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT
MOVES INLAND. THE CHANCE OF VCSH IS LOW AT THE TERMINALS
HOWEVER...WITH AN EVEN LESS CHANCE OF VCTS.

THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SW
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT Z AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE SW. TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY KMYR/KCRE DUE TO REDUCED VSBYS
BEFORE 14Z. AFTER 14Z BEST CHANCE OF MVFR WILL BE AT KILM AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NE UP THE COAST. CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW
ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN
IS STILL RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM
WINDS) AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE
DIRECTION AND GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A
10-15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER
0600 UTC VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL
COMPONENT REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021719
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWING A NICE END
TO THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BRING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED WELL
OFFSHORE...AN IMPORTANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS SEEMS TO BE ACTING LIKE A DRYLINE FEATURE AND THE NAM
HAS CONVECTION FIRING ALONG IT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
IT MAY OCCUR ONCE AGAIN THIS PM. I HAVE ADDED POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THIS LINE EXTENDING FROM PENDER COUNTY SOUTH
AND WEST TO FLORENCE. AFTER THIS THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT
THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS
AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN
WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT
ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS
LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDCOVER MOVING
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR AND VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED. NE-E WINDS WILL BECOME
SE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT
MOVES INLAND. THE CHANCE OF VCSH IS LOW AT THE TERMINALS
HOWEVER...WITH AN EVEN LESS CHANCE OF VCTS.

THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SW
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT Z AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE SW. TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY KMYR/KCRE DUE TO REDUCED VSBYS
BEFORE 14Z. AFTER 14Z BEST CHANCE OF MVFR WILL BE AT KILM AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NE UP THE COAST. CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW
ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN
IS STILL RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM
WINDS) AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE
DIRECTION AND GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A
10-15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER
0600 UTC VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL
COMPONENT REMAINING IN THE MIX.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 021421
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1021 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWING A NICE END
TO THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BRING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUNDAY...I HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT
ACROSS ALL AREAS VIA LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. EVEN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US LATER HOVERING AROUND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS QUITE A WAYS OFF. THIS WILL BE THE CHALLENGE
FOR THE NEAR TERM FOR LATER PACKAGES AS TO WHAT EXTENT THIS SYSTEM
BRINGS RAIN TO THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY MONDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHY LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF
MYR/KFLO AND NE OF KLBT...BUT ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR. SHOWERS
ARE WELL OFFSHORE EXCEPT SOME SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING OUT OF MID
CLOUDS NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A LAND BREEZE IS APPARENT ON
DOPPLER RADAR MOVING OFFSHORE OF KILM.

LIGHT NW-N WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT N-NE THEN E THROUGH THE
MORNING. SCT LOW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. AT KFLO/KLBT SCT MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME SE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE CHANCE
OF VCSH IS LOW AT THE TERMINALS...WITH EVEN LESS CHANCE OF VCTS.

THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SW
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY KMYR/KCRE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS MONDAY...
OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUNDAY...WEAK LANDBREEZE FLOW STARTING TO MIX OUT
THIS MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL GET THINGS GOING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS FLOW INCREASES ESPECIALLY
LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP JUST OFFSHORE. LONG STORY
SHORT...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021421
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1021 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWING A NICE END
TO THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BRING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUNDAY...I HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT
ACROSS ALL AREAS VIA LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. EVEN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US LATER HOVERING AROUND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS QUITE A WAYS OFF. THIS WILL BE THE CHALLENGE
FOR THE NEAR TERM FOR LATER PACKAGES AS TO WHAT EXTENT THIS SYSTEM
BRINGS RAIN TO THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY MONDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHY LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF
MYR/KFLO AND NE OF KLBT...BUT ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR. SHOWERS
ARE WELL OFFSHORE EXCEPT SOME SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING OUT OF MID
CLOUDS NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A LAND BREEZE IS APPARENT ON
DOPPLER RADAR MOVING OFFSHORE OF KILM.

LIGHT NW-N WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT N-NE THEN E THROUGH THE
MORNING. SCT LOW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. AT KFLO/KLBT SCT MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME SE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE CHANCE
OF VCSH IS LOW AT THE TERMINALS...WITH EVEN LESS CHANCE OF VCTS.

THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SW
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY KMYR/KCRE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS MONDAY...
OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUNDAY...WEAK LANDBREEZE FLOW STARTING TO MIX OUT
THIS MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL GET THINGS GOING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS FLOW INCREASES ESPECIALLY
LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP JUST OFFSHORE. LONG STORY
SHORT...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 021154
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
754 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES BACK INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...PATCHY FOG WAS AROUND...OTHERWISE IT WAS A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SUNRISE.

TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SAT IN MANY RESPECTS. A WEAK
FRONT/LAND BREEZE WILL BE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN
WITH STRONG HEATING...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND. THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE WHOLE WILL BE DRIER TODAY THAN ON SAT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS
THROUGHOUT DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
ALSO SHOWING A CAP OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT AROUND 12 KFT. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED...EVEN ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE
AS IT MOVES INLAND...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.

SINCE FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN TOO
LOW...WILL GO AGAINST THE GRAIN...DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH AND
LOWERING HEIGHTS. WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 90S. ALONG THE COAST...
LOWER 90S WILL BE MOST COMMON ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES MAY BY STYMIED
IN THE UPPER 80S GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED. THE NAM MODEL IS
FORECASTING A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.
THE NAM DEVELOPS THE LOW TO OUR S AND CARRIES IT N ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF MON AND MON MORNING. THE LOW THEN LIFTS N OF CAPE
LOOKOUT MON AFTERNOON. THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM A
LIKELY SCENARIO. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING UP
THE COAST. HOWEVER...THESE SOLUTIONS GIVE A SIMILAR FORECAST AS IT
RELATES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RAMPING
HIGHER VERY LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THUS WILL SHOW POPS
INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MON MORNING. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE...THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THEIR
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD...ALTHOUGH I DO AGREE THERE WILL BE
A RATHER SHARP POP GRADIENT. WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE
WATERS...TRENDING TO GOOD CHANCE/CHANCE ALONG THE COAST WITH SMALL
POPS DECREASING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHY LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF
MYR/KFLO AND NE OF KLBT...BUT ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR. SHOWERS
ARE WELL OFFSHORE EXCEPT SOME SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING OUT OF MID
CLOUDS NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A LAND BREEZE IS APPARENT ON
DOPPLER RADAR MOVING OFFSHORE OF KILM.

LIGHT NW-N WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT N-NE THEN E THROUGH THE
MORNING. SCT LOW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. AT KFLO/KLBT SCT MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME SE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE CHANCE
OF VCSH IS LOW AT THE TERMINALS...WITH EVEN LESS CHANCE OF VCTS.

THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SW
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY KMYR/KCRE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS MONDAY...
OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...CONVECTION...WHILE WIDESPREAD...WAS ALL
BEYOND 40 NM OF THE COAST.

A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND EARLY MORNING LAND BREEZE. A TROUGH WILL EXPAND NORTH ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE...UP TO AROUND 15 KT. MORNING
WINDS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...BIASED TOWARD
OFFSHORE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LAND BREEZE AND LIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...
THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE
EXPANDING TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT TODAY WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF BOTH WIND AND PERSISTENT SWELL. THERE WILL
BE TWO DISTINCT SWELL COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE S ON THE ORDER OF
7 SECONDS AND ONE FROM THE SE ON THE ORDER OF 10-11 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...RJD/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 021154
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
754 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES BACK INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...PATCHY FOG WAS AROUND...OTHERWISE IT WAS A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SUNRISE.

TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SAT IN MANY RESPECTS. A WEAK
FRONT/LAND BREEZE WILL BE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN
WITH STRONG HEATING...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND. THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE WHOLE WILL BE DRIER TODAY THAN ON SAT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS
THROUGHOUT DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
ALSO SHOWING A CAP OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT AROUND 12 KFT. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED...EVEN ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE
AS IT MOVES INLAND...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.

SINCE FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN TOO
LOW...WILL GO AGAINST THE GRAIN...DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH AND
LOWERING HEIGHTS. WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 90S. ALONG THE COAST...
LOWER 90S WILL BE MOST COMMON ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES MAY BY STYMIED
IN THE UPPER 80S GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED. THE NAM MODEL IS
FORECASTING A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.
THE NAM DEVELOPS THE LOW TO OUR S AND CARRIES IT N ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF MON AND MON MORNING. THE LOW THEN LIFTS N OF CAPE
LOOKOUT MON AFTERNOON. THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM A
LIKELY SCENARIO. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING UP
THE COAST. HOWEVER...THESE SOLUTIONS GIVE A SIMILAR FORECAST AS IT
RELATES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RAMPING
HIGHER VERY LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THUS WILL SHOW POPS
INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MON MORNING. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE...THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THEIR
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD...ALTHOUGH I DO AGREE THERE WILL BE
A RATHER SHARP POP GRADIENT. WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE
WATERS...TRENDING TO GOOD CHANCE/CHANCE ALONG THE COAST WITH SMALL
POPS DECREASING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHY LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF
MYR/KFLO AND NE OF KLBT...BUT ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR. SHOWERS
ARE WELL OFFSHORE EXCEPT SOME SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING OUT OF MID
CLOUDS NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A LAND BREEZE IS APPARENT ON
DOPPLER RADAR MOVING OFFSHORE OF KILM.

LIGHT NW-N WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT N-NE THEN E THROUGH THE
MORNING. SCT LOW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. AT KFLO/KLBT SCT MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME SE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE CHANCE
OF VCSH IS LOW AT THE TERMINALS...WITH EVEN LESS CHANCE OF VCTS.

THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SW
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY KMYR/KCRE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS MONDAY...
OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...CONVECTION...WHILE WIDESPREAD...WAS ALL
BEYOND 40 NM OF THE COAST.

A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND EARLY MORNING LAND BREEZE. A TROUGH WILL EXPAND NORTH ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE...UP TO AROUND 15 KT. MORNING
WINDS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...BIASED TOWARD
OFFSHORE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LAND BREEZE AND LIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...
THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE
EXPANDING TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT TODAY WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF BOTH WIND AND PERSISTENT SWELL. THERE WILL
BE TWO DISTINCT SWELL COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE S ON THE ORDER OF
7 SECONDS AND ONE FROM THE SE ON THE ORDER OF 10-11 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...RJD/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 021154
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
754 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES BACK INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...PATCHY FOG WAS AROUND...OTHERWISE IT WAS A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SUNRISE.

TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SAT IN MANY RESPECTS. A WEAK
FRONT/LAND BREEZE WILL BE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN
WITH STRONG HEATING...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND. THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE WHOLE WILL BE DRIER TODAY THAN ON SAT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS
THROUGHOUT DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
ALSO SHOWING A CAP OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT AROUND 12 KFT. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED...EVEN ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE
AS IT MOVES INLAND...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.

SINCE FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN TOO
LOW...WILL GO AGAINST THE GRAIN...DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH AND
LOWERING HEIGHTS. WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 90S. ALONG THE COAST...
LOWER 90S WILL BE MOST COMMON ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES MAY BY STYMIED
IN THE UPPER 80S GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED. THE NAM MODEL IS
FORECASTING A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.
THE NAM DEVELOPS THE LOW TO OUR S AND CARRIES IT N ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF MON AND MON MORNING. THE LOW THEN LIFTS N OF CAPE
LOOKOUT MON AFTERNOON. THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM A
LIKELY SCENARIO. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING UP
THE COAST. HOWEVER...THESE SOLUTIONS GIVE A SIMILAR FORECAST AS IT
RELATES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RAMPING
HIGHER VERY LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THUS WILL SHOW POPS
INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MON MORNING. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE...THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THEIR
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD...ALTHOUGH I DO AGREE THERE WILL BE
A RATHER SHARP POP GRADIENT. WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE
WATERS...TRENDING TO GOOD CHANCE/CHANCE ALONG THE COAST WITH SMALL
POPS DECREASING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHY LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF
MYR/KFLO AND NE OF KLBT...BUT ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR. SHOWERS
ARE WELL OFFSHORE EXCEPT SOME SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING OUT OF MID
CLOUDS NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A LAND BREEZE IS APPARENT ON
DOPPLER RADAR MOVING OFFSHORE OF KILM.

LIGHT NW-N WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT N-NE THEN E THROUGH THE
MORNING. SCT LOW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. AT KFLO/KLBT SCT MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME SE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE CHANCE
OF VCSH IS LOW AT THE TERMINALS...WITH EVEN LESS CHANCE OF VCTS.

THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SW
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY KMYR/KCRE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS MONDAY...
OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...CONVECTION...WHILE WIDESPREAD...WAS ALL
BEYOND 40 NM OF THE COAST.

A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND EARLY MORNING LAND BREEZE. A TROUGH WILL EXPAND NORTH ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE...UP TO AROUND 15 KT. MORNING
WINDS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...BIASED TOWARD
OFFSHORE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LAND BREEZE AND LIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...
THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE
EXPANDING TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT TODAY WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF BOTH WIND AND PERSISTENT SWELL. THERE WILL
BE TWO DISTINCT SWELL COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE S ON THE ORDER OF
7 SECONDS AND ONE FROM THE SE ON THE ORDER OF 10-11 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...RJD/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 021154
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
754 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES BACK INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...PATCHY FOG WAS AROUND...OTHERWISE IT WAS A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SUNRISE.

TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SAT IN MANY RESPECTS. A WEAK
FRONT/LAND BREEZE WILL BE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN
WITH STRONG HEATING...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND. THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE WHOLE WILL BE DRIER TODAY THAN ON SAT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS
THROUGHOUT DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
ALSO SHOWING A CAP OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT AROUND 12 KFT. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED...EVEN ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE
AS IT MOVES INLAND...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.

SINCE FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN TOO
LOW...WILL GO AGAINST THE GRAIN...DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH AND
LOWERING HEIGHTS. WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 90S. ALONG THE COAST...
LOWER 90S WILL BE MOST COMMON ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES MAY BY STYMIED
IN THE UPPER 80S GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED. THE NAM MODEL IS
FORECASTING A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.
THE NAM DEVELOPS THE LOW TO OUR S AND CARRIES IT N ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF MON AND MON MORNING. THE LOW THEN LIFTS N OF CAPE
LOOKOUT MON AFTERNOON. THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM A
LIKELY SCENARIO. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING UP
THE COAST. HOWEVER...THESE SOLUTIONS GIVE A SIMILAR FORECAST AS IT
RELATES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RAMPING
HIGHER VERY LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THUS WILL SHOW POPS
INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MON MORNING. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE...THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THEIR
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD...ALTHOUGH I DO AGREE THERE WILL BE
A RATHER SHARP POP GRADIENT. WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE
WATERS...TRENDING TO GOOD CHANCE/CHANCE ALONG THE COAST WITH SMALL
POPS DECREASING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHY LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF
MYR/KFLO AND NE OF KLBT...BUT ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR. SHOWERS
ARE WELL OFFSHORE EXCEPT SOME SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING OUT OF MID
CLOUDS NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A LAND BREEZE IS APPARENT ON
DOPPLER RADAR MOVING OFFSHORE OF KILM.

LIGHT NW-N WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT N-NE THEN E THROUGH THE
MORNING. SCT LOW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. AT KFLO/KLBT SCT MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME SE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE CHANCE
OF VCSH IS LOW AT THE TERMINALS...WITH EVEN LESS CHANCE OF VCTS.

THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SW
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY KMYR/KCRE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS MONDAY...
OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...CONVECTION...WHILE WIDESPREAD...WAS ALL
BEYOND 40 NM OF THE COAST.

A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND EARLY MORNING LAND BREEZE. A TROUGH WILL EXPAND NORTH ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE...UP TO AROUND 15 KT. MORNING
WINDS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...BIASED TOWARD
OFFSHORE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LAND BREEZE AND LIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...
THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE
EXPANDING TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT TODAY WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF BOTH WIND AND PERSISTENT SWELL. THERE WILL
BE TWO DISTINCT SWELL COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE S ON THE ORDER OF
7 SECONDS AND ONE FROM THE SE ON THE ORDER OF 10-11 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...RJD/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 021036
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
636 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES BACK INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...PATCHY FOG WAS AROUND...OTHERWISE IT WAS A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SUNRISE.

TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SAT IN MANY RESPECTS. A WEAK
FRONT/LAND BREEZE WILL BE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN
WITH STRONG HEATING...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND. THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE WHOLE WILL BE DRIER TODAY THAN ON SAT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS
THROUGHOUT DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
ALSO SHOWING A CAP OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT AROUND 12 KFT. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED...EVEN ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE
AS IT MOVES INLAND...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.

SINCE FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN TOO
LOW...WILL GO AGAINST THE GRAIN...DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH AND
LOWERING HEIGHTS. WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 90S. ALONG THE COAST...
LOWER 90S WILL BE MOST COMMON ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES MAY BY STYMIED
IN THE UPPER 80S GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED. THE NAM MODEL IS
FORECASTING A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.
THE NAM DEVELOPS THE LOW TO OUR S AND CARRIES IT N ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF MON AND MON MORNING. THE LOW THEN LIFTS N OF CAPE
LOOKOUT MON AFTERNOON. THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM A
LIKELY SCENARIO. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING UP
THE COAST. HOWEVER...THESE SOLUTIONS GIVE A SIMILAR FORECAST AS IT
RELATES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RAMPING
HIGHER VERY LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THUS WILL SHOW POPS
INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MON MORNING. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE...THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THEIR
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD...ALTHOUGH I DO AGREE THERE WILL BE
A RATHER SHARP POP GRADIENT. WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE
WATERS...TRENDING TO GOOD CHANCE/CHANCE ALONG THE COAST WITH SMALL
POPS DECREASING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA AND
SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART. WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...AN INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBY BETWEEN
09-12Z. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STATIONARY
FRONT/SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP VFR
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY/
CEILING IF CONVECTION OCCURS DIRECTLY OVER KILM/KCRE/KMYR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...CONVECTION...WHILE WIDESPREAD...WAS ALL
BEYOND 40 NM OF THE COAST.

A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND EARLY MORNING LAND BREEZE. A TROUGH WILL EXPAND NORTH ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE...UP TO AROUND 15 KT. MORNING
WINDS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...BIASED TOWARD
OFFSHORE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LAND BREEZE AND LIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...
THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE
EXPANDING TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT TODAY WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF BOTH WIND AND PERSISTENT SWELL. THERE WILL
BE TWO DISTINCT SWELL COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE S ON THE ORDER OF
7 SECONDS AND ONE FROM THE SE ON THE ORDER OF 10-11 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD/MAC




000
FXUS62 KILM 021036
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
636 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES BACK INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...PATCHY FOG WAS AROUND...OTHERWISE IT WAS A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SUNRISE.

TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SAT IN MANY RESPECTS. A WEAK
FRONT/LAND BREEZE WILL BE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN
WITH STRONG HEATING...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND. THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE WHOLE WILL BE DRIER TODAY THAN ON SAT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS
THROUGHOUT DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
ALSO SHOWING A CAP OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT AROUND 12 KFT. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED...EVEN ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE
AS IT MOVES INLAND...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.

SINCE FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN TOO
LOW...WILL GO AGAINST THE GRAIN...DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH AND
LOWERING HEIGHTS. WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 90S. ALONG THE COAST...
LOWER 90S WILL BE MOST COMMON ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES MAY BY STYMIED
IN THE UPPER 80S GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED. THE NAM MODEL IS
FORECASTING A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.
THE NAM DEVELOPS THE LOW TO OUR S AND CARRIES IT N ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF MON AND MON MORNING. THE LOW THEN LIFTS N OF CAPE
LOOKOUT MON AFTERNOON. THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM A
LIKELY SCENARIO. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING UP
THE COAST. HOWEVER...THESE SOLUTIONS GIVE A SIMILAR FORECAST AS IT
RELATES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RAMPING
HIGHER VERY LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THUS WILL SHOW POPS
INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MON MORNING. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE...THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THEIR
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD...ALTHOUGH I DO AGREE THERE WILL BE
A RATHER SHARP POP GRADIENT. WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE
WATERS...TRENDING TO GOOD CHANCE/CHANCE ALONG THE COAST WITH SMALL
POPS DECREASING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA AND
SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART. WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...AN INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBY BETWEEN
09-12Z. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STATIONARY
FRONT/SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP VFR
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY/
CEILING IF CONVECTION OCCURS DIRECTLY OVER KILM/KCRE/KMYR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...CONVECTION...WHILE WIDESPREAD...WAS ALL
BEYOND 40 NM OF THE COAST.

A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND EARLY MORNING LAND BREEZE. A TROUGH WILL EXPAND NORTH ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE...UP TO AROUND 15 KT. MORNING
WINDS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...BIASED TOWARD
OFFSHORE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LAND BREEZE AND LIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...
THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE
EXPANDING TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT TODAY WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF BOTH WIND AND PERSISTENT SWELL. THERE WILL
BE TWO DISTINCT SWELL COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE S ON THE ORDER OF
7 SECONDS AND ONE FROM THE SE ON THE ORDER OF 10-11 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD/MAC





000
FXUS62 KILM 020734
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES BACK INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SAT IN MANY
RESPECTS. A WEAK FRONT/LAND BREEZE WILL BE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN WITH STRONG HEATING...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND. THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WHOLE WILL BE DRIER TODAY THAN
ON SAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS
THROUGHOUT DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO
SHOWING A CAP OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT AROUND 12 KFT. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED...EVEN ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE
AS IT MOVES INLAND...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.

SINCE FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN TOO
LOW...WILL GO AGAINST THE GRAIN...DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH AND
LOWERING HEIGHTS. WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 90S. ALONG THE
COAST...LOWER 90S WILL BE MOST COMMON ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES MAY BY
STYMIED IN THE UPPER 80S GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED. THE NAM MODEL IS
FORECASTING A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.
THE NAM DEVELOPS THE LOW TO OUR S AND CARRIES IT N ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF MON AND MON MORNING. THE LOW THEN LIFTS N OF CAPE
LOOKOUT MON AFTERNOON. THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM A
LIKELY SCENARIO. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING UP
THE COAST. HOWEVER...THESE SOLUTIONS GIVE A SIMILAR FORECAST AS IT
RELATES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RAMPING
HIGHER VERY LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THUS WILL SHOW POPS
INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MON MORNING. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE...THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THEIR
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD...ALTHOUGH I DO AGREE THERE WILL BE
A RATHER SHARP POP GRADIENT. WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE
WATERS...TRENDING TO GOOD CHANCE/CHANCE ALONG THE COAST WITH SMALL
POPS DECREASING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA AND
SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART. WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...AN INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBY BETWEEN
09-12Z. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STATIONARY
FRONT/SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP VFR
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY/
CEILING IF CONVECTION OCCURS DIRECTLY OVER KILM/KCRE/KMYR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DAILY
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND EARLY MORNING LAND BREEZE. A TROUGH WILL
EXPAND NORTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE...UP TO
AROUND 15 KT. MORNING WINDS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION...BIASED TOWARD OFFSHORE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LAND
BREEZE AND LIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL BE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE EXPANDING TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT
TODAY WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTERMOST WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF BOTH WIND AND
PERSISTENT SWELL. THERE WILL BE TWO DISTINCT SWELL
COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE S ON THE ORDER OF 7 SECONDS AND ONE FROM
THE SE ON THE ORDER OF 10-11 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KTS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KTS...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD
MARINE...RJD/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 020734
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES BACK INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SAT IN MANY
RESPECTS. A WEAK FRONT/LAND BREEZE WILL BE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN WITH STRONG HEATING...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND. THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WHOLE WILL BE DRIER TODAY THAN
ON SAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS
THROUGHOUT DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO
SHOWING A CAP OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT AROUND 12 KFT. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED...EVEN ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE
AS IT MOVES INLAND...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.

SINCE FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN TOO
LOW...WILL GO AGAINST THE GRAIN...DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH AND
LOWERING HEIGHTS. WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 90S. ALONG THE
COAST...LOWER 90S WILL BE MOST COMMON ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES MAY BY
STYMIED IN THE UPPER 80S GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED. THE NAM MODEL IS
FORECASTING A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.
THE NAM DEVELOPS THE LOW TO OUR S AND CARRIES IT N ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF MON AND MON MORNING. THE LOW THEN LIFTS N OF CAPE
LOOKOUT MON AFTERNOON. THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM A
LIKELY SCENARIO. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING UP
THE COAST. HOWEVER...THESE SOLUTIONS GIVE A SIMILAR FORECAST AS IT
RELATES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RAMPING
HIGHER VERY LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THUS WILL SHOW POPS
INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MON MORNING. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE...THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THEIR
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD...ALTHOUGH I DO AGREE THERE WILL BE
A RATHER SHARP POP GRADIENT. WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE
WATERS...TRENDING TO GOOD CHANCE/CHANCE ALONG THE COAST WITH SMALL
POPS DECREASING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA AND
SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART. WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...AN INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBY BETWEEN
09-12Z. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STATIONARY
FRONT/SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP VFR
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY/
CEILING IF CONVECTION OCCURS DIRECTLY OVER KILM/KCRE/KMYR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DAILY
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND EARLY MORNING LAND BREEZE. A TROUGH WILL
EXPAND NORTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE...UP TO
AROUND 15 KT. MORNING WINDS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION...BIASED TOWARD OFFSHORE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LAND
BREEZE AND LIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL BE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE EXPANDING TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT
TODAY WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTERMOST WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF BOTH WIND AND
PERSISTENT SWELL. THERE WILL BE TWO DISTINCT SWELL
COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE S ON THE ORDER OF 7 SECONDS AND ONE FROM
THE SE ON THE ORDER OF 10-11 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KTS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KTS...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD
MARINE...RJD/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 020734
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES BACK INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SAT IN MANY
RESPECTS. A WEAK FRONT/LAND BREEZE WILL BE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN WITH STRONG HEATING...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND. THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WHOLE WILL BE DRIER TODAY THAN
ON SAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS
THROUGHOUT DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO
SHOWING A CAP OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT AROUND 12 KFT. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED...EVEN ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE
AS IT MOVES INLAND...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.

SINCE FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN TOO
LOW...WILL GO AGAINST THE GRAIN...DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH AND
LOWERING HEIGHTS. WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 90S. ALONG THE
COAST...LOWER 90S WILL BE MOST COMMON ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES MAY BY
STYMIED IN THE UPPER 80S GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED. THE NAM MODEL IS
FORECASTING A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.
THE NAM DEVELOPS THE LOW TO OUR S AND CARRIES IT N ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF MON AND MON MORNING. THE LOW THEN LIFTS N OF CAPE
LOOKOUT MON AFTERNOON. THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM A
LIKELY SCENARIO. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING UP
THE COAST. HOWEVER...THESE SOLUTIONS GIVE A SIMILAR FORECAST AS IT
RELATES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RAMPING
HIGHER VERY LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THUS WILL SHOW POPS
INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MON MORNING. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE...THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THEIR
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD...ALTHOUGH I DO AGREE THERE WILL BE
A RATHER SHARP POP GRADIENT. WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE
WATERS...TRENDING TO GOOD CHANCE/CHANCE ALONG THE COAST WITH SMALL
POPS DECREASING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA AND
SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART. WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...AN INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBY BETWEEN
09-12Z. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STATIONARY
FRONT/SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP VFR
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY/
CEILING IF CONVECTION OCCURS DIRECTLY OVER KILM/KCRE/KMYR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DAILY
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND EARLY MORNING LAND BREEZE. A TROUGH WILL
EXPAND NORTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE...UP TO
AROUND 15 KT. MORNING WINDS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION...BIASED TOWARD OFFSHORE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LAND
BREEZE AND LIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL BE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE EXPANDING TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT
TODAY WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTERMOST WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF BOTH WIND AND
PERSISTENT SWELL. THERE WILL BE TWO DISTINCT SWELL
COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE S ON THE ORDER OF 7 SECONDS AND ONE FROM
THE SE ON THE ORDER OF 10-11 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KTS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KTS...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD
MARINE...RJD/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 020734
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES BACK INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SAT IN MANY
RESPECTS. A WEAK FRONT/LAND BREEZE WILL BE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN WITH STRONG HEATING...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND. THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WHOLE WILL BE DRIER TODAY THAN
ON SAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS
THROUGHOUT DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO
SHOWING A CAP OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT AROUND 12 KFT. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED...EVEN ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE
AS IT MOVES INLAND...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.

SINCE FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN TOO
LOW...WILL GO AGAINST THE GRAIN...DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH AND
LOWERING HEIGHTS. WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 90S. ALONG THE
COAST...LOWER 90S WILL BE MOST COMMON ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES MAY BY
STYMIED IN THE UPPER 80S GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED. THE NAM MODEL IS
FORECASTING A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.
THE NAM DEVELOPS THE LOW TO OUR S AND CARRIES IT N ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF MON AND MON MORNING. THE LOW THEN LIFTS N OF CAPE
LOOKOUT MON AFTERNOON. THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM A
LIKELY SCENARIO. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING UP
THE COAST. HOWEVER...THESE SOLUTIONS GIVE A SIMILAR FORECAST AS IT
RELATES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RAMPING
HIGHER VERY LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THUS WILL SHOW POPS
INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MON MORNING. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE...THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH THEIR
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD...ALTHOUGH I DO AGREE THERE WILL BE
A RATHER SHARP POP GRADIENT. WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE
WATERS...TRENDING TO GOOD CHANCE/CHANCE ALONG THE COAST WITH SMALL
POPS DECREASING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA AND
SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART. WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...AN INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBY BETWEEN
09-12Z. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STATIONARY
FRONT/SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP VFR
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY/
CEILING IF CONVECTION OCCURS DIRECTLY OVER KILM/KCRE/KMYR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DAILY
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND EARLY MORNING LAND BREEZE. A TROUGH WILL
EXPAND NORTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE...UP TO
AROUND 15 KT. MORNING WINDS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION...BIASED TOWARD OFFSHORE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LAND
BREEZE AND LIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL BE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE EXPANDING TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT
TODAY WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTERMOST WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF BOTH WIND AND
PERSISTENT SWELL. THERE WILL BE TWO DISTINCT SWELL
COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE S ON THE ORDER OF 7 SECONDS AND ONE FROM
THE SE ON THE ORDER OF 10-11 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KTS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KTS...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD
MARINE...RJD/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 020545
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. THE
FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF UNSTABLE AIR AT THE TOP OF TODAY`S DEEP
MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THIS IS NOT A SITUATION I
WOULD HAVE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BASED AROUND 6500 FEET AGL AND BONE-DRY AIR AT AND
ABOVE 700 MB. NEVERTHELESS THERE ARE SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM FLORENCE NORTHWARD TO
NEAR BINGHAM IN WESTERN DILLON COUNTY. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO ROBESON
COUNTY NC...SO I HAVE TO AT LEAST CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AS WELL.

AT THE SURFACE HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED WESTWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN WITH 70S SHOWING UP AGAIN IN LUMBERTON...
MARION AND FLORENCE. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE TOO THIN TO BE FEEDING
THE CONVECTION DIRECTLY...AS THE SURFACE IS LIKELY DECOUPLED FROM
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT.

LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DO NOT REALLY SHOW THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY
WELL...ALTHOUGH INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z NAM DOES. THE NAM MOVES THE
SHOWERS EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...DISSIPATING THE CONVECTION
BETWEEN 06-09Z NEAR MYRTLE BEACH.

AT 500 MB THE CAROLINAS FORM THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB
SHOULD CONTINUE ON WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NUDGE OUR FRONT OFF THE COAST INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING I ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST.
LOWS SHOULD FALL 70-74...WARMEST AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD...FLAT-ISH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTION DESPITE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AIR ALOFT IS DRIEST INLAND...SO WILL
SHOW A DECREASING GRADIENT IN POPS NW FROM THE COAST FOR BOTH
DAYS. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH
FAR INLAND AREAS BEING POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND A 100 OR SO BOTH
AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE EXCEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOLED UP ALONG THE COAST. MINOR RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED THERE DURING AN OTHERWISE HOT AFTERNOON
PROVIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
SLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK THOUGH THE SENSE OF
RIDGING WEAKENS. SO WILL KEEP POPS MINIMIZED BUT SHOW THEM AREA-
WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY AS SOME WEAKLY
CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A SURFACE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. ANOTHER LITTLE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY. ON
SATURDAY NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE CONTINUED DISTURBANCES IMPINGING
UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH SEE
RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS WHEREAS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA AND
SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART. WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...AN INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBY BETWEEN
09-12Z. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STATIONARY
FRONT/SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP VFR
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY/
CEILING IF CONVECTION OCCURS DIRECTLY OVER KILM/KCRE/KMYR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
NUDGE THE FRONT EASTWARD AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS IN THE CAPE
FEAR AREA SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST.

THE PRIMARY WAVE SET IS A 7-SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH A
SMALLER 10-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL SHOWING UP. THESE TWO WAVES
WILL CONTINUE INDEPENDENT OF THE WIND OVERNIGHT...WITH COMBINED
SEAS 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO A
SWLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS RELAX ON TUESDAY AS
PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS PUSHES THE TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE
BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THOUGH SOME SWELL ENERGY MAY
REMAIN WE SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREAFTER IT
LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STANDARD FARE FOR JULY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC/RJD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD





000
FXUS62 KILM 020545
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. THE
FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF UNSTABLE AIR AT THE TOP OF TODAY`S DEEP
MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THIS IS NOT A SITUATION I
WOULD HAVE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BASED AROUND 6500 FEET AGL AND BONE-DRY AIR AT AND
ABOVE 700 MB. NEVERTHELESS THERE ARE SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM FLORENCE NORTHWARD TO
NEAR BINGHAM IN WESTERN DILLON COUNTY. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO ROBESON
COUNTY NC...SO I HAVE TO AT LEAST CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AS WELL.

AT THE SURFACE HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED WESTWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN WITH 70S SHOWING UP AGAIN IN LUMBERTON...
MARION AND FLORENCE. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE TOO THIN TO BE FEEDING
THE CONVECTION DIRECTLY...AS THE SURFACE IS LIKELY DECOUPLED FROM
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT.

LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DO NOT REALLY SHOW THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY
WELL...ALTHOUGH INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z NAM DOES. THE NAM MOVES THE
SHOWERS EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...DISSIPATING THE CONVECTION
BETWEEN 06-09Z NEAR MYRTLE BEACH.

AT 500 MB THE CAROLINAS FORM THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB
SHOULD CONTINUE ON WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NUDGE OUR FRONT OFF THE COAST INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING I ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST.
LOWS SHOULD FALL 70-74...WARMEST AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD...FLAT-ISH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTION DESPITE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AIR ALOFT IS DRIEST INLAND...SO WILL
SHOW A DECREASING GRADIENT IN POPS NW FROM THE COAST FOR BOTH
DAYS. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH
FAR INLAND AREAS BEING POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND A 100 OR SO BOTH
AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE EXCEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOLED UP ALONG THE COAST. MINOR RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED THERE DURING AN OTHERWISE HOT AFTERNOON
PROVIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
SLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK THOUGH THE SENSE OF
RIDGING WEAKENS. SO WILL KEEP POPS MINIMIZED BUT SHOW THEM AREA-
WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY AS SOME WEAKLY
CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A SURFACE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. ANOTHER LITTLE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY. ON
SATURDAY NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE CONTINUED DISTURBANCES IMPINGING
UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH SEE
RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS WHEREAS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA AND
SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART. WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...AN INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBY BETWEEN
09-12Z. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STATIONARY
FRONT/SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP VFR
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY/
CEILING IF CONVECTION OCCURS DIRECTLY OVER KILM/KCRE/KMYR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
NUDGE THE FRONT EASTWARD AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS IN THE CAPE
FEAR AREA SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST.

THE PRIMARY WAVE SET IS A 7-SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH A
SMALLER 10-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL SHOWING UP. THESE TWO WAVES
WILL CONTINUE INDEPENDENT OF THE WIND OVERNIGHT...WITH COMBINED
SEAS 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO A
SWLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS RELAX ON TUESDAY AS
PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS PUSHES THE TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE
BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THOUGH SOME SWELL ENERGY MAY
REMAIN WE SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREAFTER IT
LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STANDARD FARE FOR JULY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC/RJD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD




000
FXUS62 KILM 020404
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1204 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. THE
FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF UNSTABLE AIR AT THE TOP OF TODAY`S DEEP
MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THIS IS NOT A SITUATION I
WOULD HAVE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BASED AROUND 6500 FEET AGL AND BONE-DRY AIR AT AND
ABOVE 700 MB. NEVERTHELESS THERE ARE SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM FLORENCE NORTHWARD TO
NEAR BINGHAM IN WESTERN DILLON COUNTY. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO ROBESON
COUNTY NC...SO I HAVE TO AT LEAST CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AS WELL.

AT THE SURFACE HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED WESTWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN WITH 70S SHOWING UP AGAIN IN LUMBERTON...
MARION AND FLORENCE. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE TOO THIN TO BE FEEDING
THE CONVECTION DIRECTLY...AS THE SURFACE IS LIKELY DECOUPLED FROM
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT.

LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DO NOT REALLY SHOW THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY
WELL...ALTHOUGH INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z NAM DOES. THE NAM MOVES THE
SHOWERS EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...DISSIPATING THE CONVECTION
BETWEEN 06-09Z NEAR MYRTLE BEACH.

AT 500 MB THE CAROLINAS FORM THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB
SHOULD CONTINUE ON WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NUDGE OUR FRONT OFF THE COAST INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING I ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST.
LOWS SHOULD FALL 70-74...WARMEST AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD...FLAT-ISH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTION DESPITE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AIR ALOFT IS DRIEST INLAND...SO WILL
SHOW A DECREASING GRADIENT IN POPS NW FROM THE COAST FOR BOTH
DAYS. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH
FAR INLAND AREAS BEING POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND A 100 OR SO BOTH
AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE EXCEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOLED UP ALONG THE COAST. MINOR RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED THERE DURING AN OTHERWISE HOT AFTERNOON
PROVIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
SLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK THOUGH THE SENSE OF
RIDGING WEAKENS. SO WILL KEEP POPS MINIMIZED BUT SHOW THEM AREA-
WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY AS SOME WEAKLY
CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A SURFACE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. ANOTHER LITTLE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY. ON
SATURDAY NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE CONTINUED DISTURBANCES IMPINGING
UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH SEE
RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS WHEREAS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. CONVECTION FIRED UP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY NEAR AND OVER KILM THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED
CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY KILM. WILL MAKE MENTION AFTER 08Z IN ALL
TERMINALS FOR FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO RETURN AFTER 12Z AND
SUNDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIKE TODAY WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP VFR IN ALL
TERMINALS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR IN VSBY/CEILING IF
CONVECTION OCCURS OVER A TERMINAL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
NUDGE THE FRONT EASTWARD AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS IN THE CAPE
FEAR AREA SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST.

THE PRIMARY WAVE SET IS A 7-SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH A
SMALLER 10-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL SHOWING UP. THESE TWO WAVES
WILL CONTINUE INDEPENDENT OF THE WIND OVERNIGHT...WITH COMBINED
SEAS 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO A
SWLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS RELAX ON TUESDAY AS
PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS PUSHES THE TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE
BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THOUGH SOME SWELL ENERGY MAY
REMAIN WE SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREAFTER IT
LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STANDARD FARE FOR JULY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD




000
FXUS62 KILM 020404
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1204 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. THE
FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF UNSTABLE AIR AT THE TOP OF TODAY`S DEEP
MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THIS IS NOT A SITUATION I
WOULD HAVE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BASED AROUND 6500 FEET AGL AND BONE-DRY AIR AT AND
ABOVE 700 MB. NEVERTHELESS THERE ARE SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM FLORENCE NORTHWARD TO
NEAR BINGHAM IN WESTERN DILLON COUNTY. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO ROBESON
COUNTY NC...SO I HAVE TO AT LEAST CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AS WELL.

AT THE SURFACE HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED WESTWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN WITH 70S SHOWING UP AGAIN IN LUMBERTON...
MARION AND FLORENCE. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE TOO THIN TO BE FEEDING
THE CONVECTION DIRECTLY...AS THE SURFACE IS LIKELY DECOUPLED FROM
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT.

LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DO NOT REALLY SHOW THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY
WELL...ALTHOUGH INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z NAM DOES. THE NAM MOVES THE
SHOWERS EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...DISSIPATING THE CONVECTION
BETWEEN 06-09Z NEAR MYRTLE BEACH.

AT 500 MB THE CAROLINAS FORM THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB
SHOULD CONTINUE ON WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NUDGE OUR FRONT OFF THE COAST INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING I ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST.
LOWS SHOULD FALL 70-74...WARMEST AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD...FLAT-ISH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTION DESPITE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AIR ALOFT IS DRIEST INLAND...SO WILL
SHOW A DECREASING GRADIENT IN POPS NW FROM THE COAST FOR BOTH
DAYS. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH
FAR INLAND AREAS BEING POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND A 100 OR SO BOTH
AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE EXCEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOLED UP ALONG THE COAST. MINOR RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED THERE DURING AN OTHERWISE HOT AFTERNOON
PROVIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
SLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK THOUGH THE SENSE OF
RIDGING WEAKENS. SO WILL KEEP POPS MINIMIZED BUT SHOW THEM AREA-
WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY AS SOME WEAKLY
CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A SURFACE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. ANOTHER LITTLE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY. ON
SATURDAY NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE CONTINUED DISTURBANCES IMPINGING
UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH SEE
RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS WHEREAS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. CONVECTION FIRED UP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY NEAR AND OVER KILM THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED
CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY KILM. WILL MAKE MENTION AFTER 08Z IN ALL
TERMINALS FOR FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO RETURN AFTER 12Z AND
SUNDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIKE TODAY WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP VFR IN ALL
TERMINALS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR IN VSBY/CEILING IF
CONVECTION OCCURS OVER A TERMINAL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
NUDGE THE FRONT EASTWARD AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS IN THE CAPE
FEAR AREA SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST.

THE PRIMARY WAVE SET IS A 7-SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH A
SMALLER 10-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL SHOWING UP. THESE TWO WAVES
WILL CONTINUE INDEPENDENT OF THE WIND OVERNIGHT...WITH COMBINED
SEAS 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO A
SWLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS RELAX ON TUESDAY AS
PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS PUSHES THE TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE
BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THOUGH SOME SWELL ENERGY MAY
REMAIN WE SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREAFTER IT
LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STANDARD FARE FOR JULY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD




000
FXUS62 KILM 020404
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1204 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. THE
FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF UNSTABLE AIR AT THE TOP OF TODAY`S DEEP
MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THIS IS NOT A SITUATION I
WOULD HAVE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BASED AROUND 6500 FEET AGL AND BONE-DRY AIR AT AND
ABOVE 700 MB. NEVERTHELESS THERE ARE SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM FLORENCE NORTHWARD TO
NEAR BINGHAM IN WESTERN DILLON COUNTY. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO ROBESON
COUNTY NC...SO I HAVE TO AT LEAST CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AS WELL.

AT THE SURFACE HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED WESTWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN WITH 70S SHOWING UP AGAIN IN LUMBERTON...
MARION AND FLORENCE. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE TOO THIN TO BE FEEDING
THE CONVECTION DIRECTLY...AS THE SURFACE IS LIKELY DECOUPLED FROM
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT.

LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DO NOT REALLY SHOW THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY
WELL...ALTHOUGH INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z NAM DOES. THE NAM MOVES THE
SHOWERS EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...DISSIPATING THE CONVECTION
BETWEEN 06-09Z NEAR MYRTLE BEACH.

AT 500 MB THE CAROLINAS FORM THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB
SHOULD CONTINUE ON WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NUDGE OUR FRONT OFF THE COAST INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING I ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST.
LOWS SHOULD FALL 70-74...WARMEST AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD...FLAT-ISH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTION DESPITE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AIR ALOFT IS DRIEST INLAND...SO WILL
SHOW A DECREASING GRADIENT IN POPS NW FROM THE COAST FOR BOTH
DAYS. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH
FAR INLAND AREAS BEING POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND A 100 OR SO BOTH
AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE EXCEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOLED UP ALONG THE COAST. MINOR RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED THERE DURING AN OTHERWISE HOT AFTERNOON
PROVIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
SLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK THOUGH THE SENSE OF
RIDGING WEAKENS. SO WILL KEEP POPS MINIMIZED BUT SHOW THEM AREA-
WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY AS SOME WEAKLY
CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A SURFACE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. ANOTHER LITTLE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY. ON
SATURDAY NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE CONTINUED DISTURBANCES IMPINGING
UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH SEE
RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS WHEREAS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. CONVECTION FIRED UP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY NEAR AND OVER KILM THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED
CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY KILM. WILL MAKE MENTION AFTER 08Z IN ALL
TERMINALS FOR FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO RETURN AFTER 12Z AND
SUNDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIKE TODAY WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP VFR IN ALL
TERMINALS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR IN VSBY/CEILING IF
CONVECTION OCCURS OVER A TERMINAL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
NUDGE THE FRONT EASTWARD AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS IN THE CAPE
FEAR AREA SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST.

THE PRIMARY WAVE SET IS A 7-SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH A
SMALLER 10-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL SHOWING UP. THESE TWO WAVES
WILL CONTINUE INDEPENDENT OF THE WIND OVERNIGHT...WITH COMBINED
SEAS 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO A
SWLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS RELAX ON TUESDAY AS
PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS PUSHES THE TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE
BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THOUGH SOME SWELL ENERGY MAY
REMAIN WE SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREAFTER IT
LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STANDARD FARE FOR JULY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD





000
FXUS62 KILM 020404
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1204 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. THE
FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF UNSTABLE AIR AT THE TOP OF TODAY`S DEEP
MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THIS IS NOT A SITUATION I
WOULD HAVE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BASED AROUND 6500 FEET AGL AND BONE-DRY AIR AT AND
ABOVE 700 MB. NEVERTHELESS THERE ARE SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM FLORENCE NORTHWARD TO
NEAR BINGHAM IN WESTERN DILLON COUNTY. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO ROBESON
COUNTY NC...SO I HAVE TO AT LEAST CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AS WELL.

AT THE SURFACE HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED WESTWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN WITH 70S SHOWING UP AGAIN IN LUMBERTON...
MARION AND FLORENCE. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE TOO THIN TO BE FEEDING
THE CONVECTION DIRECTLY...AS THE SURFACE IS LIKELY DECOUPLED FROM
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT.

LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DO NOT REALLY SHOW THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY
WELL...ALTHOUGH INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z NAM DOES. THE NAM MOVES THE
SHOWERS EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...DISSIPATING THE CONVECTION
BETWEEN 06-09Z NEAR MYRTLE BEACH.

AT 500 MB THE CAROLINAS FORM THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB
SHOULD CONTINUE ON WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NUDGE OUR FRONT OFF THE COAST INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING I ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST.
LOWS SHOULD FALL 70-74...WARMEST AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD...FLAT-ISH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTION DESPITE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AIR ALOFT IS DRIEST INLAND...SO WILL
SHOW A DECREASING GRADIENT IN POPS NW FROM THE COAST FOR BOTH
DAYS. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH
FAR INLAND AREAS BEING POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND A 100 OR SO BOTH
AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE EXCEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOLED UP ALONG THE COAST. MINOR RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED THERE DURING AN OTHERWISE HOT AFTERNOON
PROVIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
SLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK THOUGH THE SENSE OF
RIDGING WEAKENS. SO WILL KEEP POPS MINIMIZED BUT SHOW THEM AREA-
WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY AS SOME WEAKLY
CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A SURFACE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. ANOTHER LITTLE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY. ON
SATURDAY NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE CONTINUED DISTURBANCES IMPINGING
UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH SEE
RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS WHEREAS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. CONVECTION FIRED UP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY NEAR AND OVER KILM THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED
CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY KILM. WILL MAKE MENTION AFTER 08Z IN ALL
TERMINALS FOR FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO RETURN AFTER 12Z AND
SUNDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIKE TODAY WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP VFR IN ALL
TERMINALS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR IN VSBY/CEILING IF
CONVECTION OCCURS OVER A TERMINAL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
NUDGE THE FRONT EASTWARD AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS IN THE CAPE
FEAR AREA SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST.

THE PRIMARY WAVE SET IS A 7-SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH A
SMALLER 10-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL SHOWING UP. THESE TWO WAVES
WILL CONTINUE INDEPENDENT OF THE WIND OVERNIGHT...WITH COMBINED
SEAS 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO A
SWLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS RELAX ON TUESDAY AS
PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS PUSHES THE TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE
BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THOUGH SOME SWELL ENERGY MAY
REMAIN WE SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREAFTER IT
LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STANDARD FARE FOR JULY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD





000
FXUS62 KILM 020205
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1005 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF UNSTABLE AIR AT THE TOP OF TODAY`S DEEP
MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THIS IS NOT A SITUATION I
WOULD HAVE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BASED AROUND 6500 FEET AGL AND BONE-DRY AIR AT AND
ABOVE 700 MB. NEVERTHELESS THERE ARE SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM FLORENCE NORTHWARD TO
NEAR BINGHAM IN WESTERN DILLON COUNTY. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO ROBESON
COUNTY NC...SO I HAVE TO AT LEAST CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AS WELL.

AT THE SURFACE HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED WESTWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN WITH 70S SHOWING UP AGAIN IN LUMBERTON...
MARION AND FLORENCE. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE TOO THIN TO BE FEEDING
THE CONVECTION DIRECTLY...AS THE SURFACE IS LIKELY DECOUPLED FROM
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT.

LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DO NOT REALLY SHOW THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY
WELL...ALTHOUGH INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z NAM DOES. THE NAM MOVES THE
SHOWERS EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...DISSIPATING THE CONVECTION
BETWEEN 06-09Z NEAR MYRTLE BEACH.

AT 500 MB THE CAROLINAS FORM THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB
SHOULD CONTINUE ON WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NUDGE OUR FRONT OFF THE COAST INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING I ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST.
LOWS SHOULD FALL 70-74...WARMEST AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD...FLAT-ISH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTION DESPITE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AIR ALOFT IS DRIEST INLAND...SO WILL
SHOW A DECREASING GRADIENT IN POPS NW FROM THE COAST FOR BOTH
DAYS. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH
FAR INLAND AREAS BEING POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND A 100 OR SO BOTH
AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE EXCEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOLED UP ALONG THE COAST. MINOR RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED THERE DURING AN OTHERWISE HOT AFTERNOON
PROVIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
SLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK THOUGH THE SENSE OF
RIDGING WEAKENS. SO WILL KEEP POPS MINIMIZED BUT SHOW THEM AREA-
WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY AS SOME WEAKLY
CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A SURFACE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. ANOTHER LITTLE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY. ON
SATURDAY NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE CONTINUED DISTURBANCES IMPINGING
UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH SEE
RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS WHEREAS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. CONVECTION FIRED UP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY NEAR AND OVER KILM THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT PERIOD TRAPPED BENEATH
AN INVERSION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY KILM. WILL MAKE MENTION
AFTER 08Z IN ALL TERMINALS FOR FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO RETURN
AFTER 12Z AND SUNDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIKE TODAY WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP VFR IN ALL TERMINALS
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR IN VSBY/CEILING IF CONVECTION OCCURS
OVER A TERMINAL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
NUDGE THE FRONT EASTWARD AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS IN THE CAPE
FEAR AREA SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST.

THE PRIMARY WAVE SET IS A 7-SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH A
SMALLER 10-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL SHOWING UP. THESE TWO WAVES
WILL CONTINUE INDEPENDENT OF THE WIND OVERNIGHT...WITH COMBINED
SEAS 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO A
SWLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS RELAX ON TUESDAY AS
PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS PUSHES THE TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE
BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THOUGH SOME SWELL ENERGY MAY
REMAIN WE SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREAFTER IT
LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STANDARD FARE FOR JULY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD





000
FXUS62 KILM 020205
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1005 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF UNSTABLE AIR AT THE TOP OF TODAY`S DEEP
MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THIS IS NOT A SITUATION I
WOULD HAVE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BASED AROUND 6500 FEET AGL AND BONE-DRY AIR AT AND
ABOVE 700 MB. NEVERTHELESS THERE ARE SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM FLORENCE NORTHWARD TO
NEAR BINGHAM IN WESTERN DILLON COUNTY. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO ROBESON
COUNTY NC...SO I HAVE TO AT LEAST CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AS WELL.

AT THE SURFACE HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED WESTWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN WITH 70S SHOWING UP AGAIN IN LUMBERTON...
MARION AND FLORENCE. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE TOO THIN TO BE FEEDING
THE CONVECTION DIRECTLY...AS THE SURFACE IS LIKELY DECOUPLED FROM
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT.

LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DO NOT REALLY SHOW THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY
WELL...ALTHOUGH INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z NAM DOES. THE NAM MOVES THE
SHOWERS EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...DISSIPATING THE CONVECTION
BETWEEN 06-09Z NEAR MYRTLE BEACH.

AT 500 MB THE CAROLINAS FORM THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB
SHOULD CONTINUE ON WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NUDGE OUR FRONT OFF THE COAST INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING I ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST.
LOWS SHOULD FALL 70-74...WARMEST AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD...FLAT-ISH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTION DESPITE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AIR ALOFT IS DRIEST INLAND...SO WILL
SHOW A DECREASING GRADIENT IN POPS NW FROM THE COAST FOR BOTH
DAYS. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH
FAR INLAND AREAS BEING POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND A 100 OR SO BOTH
AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE EXCEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOLED UP ALONG THE COAST. MINOR RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED THERE DURING AN OTHERWISE HOT AFTERNOON
PROVIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
SLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK THOUGH THE SENSE OF
RIDGING WEAKENS. SO WILL KEEP POPS MINIMIZED BUT SHOW THEM AREA-
WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY AS SOME WEAKLY
CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A SURFACE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. ANOTHER LITTLE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY. ON
SATURDAY NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE CONTINUED DISTURBANCES IMPINGING
UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH SEE
RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS WHEREAS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. CONVECTION FIRED UP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY NEAR AND OVER KILM THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT PERIOD TRAPPED BENEATH
AN INVERSION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY KILM. WILL MAKE MENTION
AFTER 08Z IN ALL TERMINALS FOR FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO RETURN
AFTER 12Z AND SUNDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIKE TODAY WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP VFR IN ALL TERMINALS
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR IN VSBY/CEILING IF CONVECTION OCCURS
OVER A TERMINAL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
NUDGE THE FRONT EASTWARD AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS IN THE CAPE
FEAR AREA SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST.

THE PRIMARY WAVE SET IS A 7-SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH A
SMALLER 10-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL SHOWING UP. THESE TWO WAVES
WILL CONTINUE INDEPENDENT OF THE WIND OVERNIGHT...WITH COMBINED
SEAS 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO A
SWLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS RELAX ON TUESDAY AS
PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS PUSHES THE TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE
BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THOUGH SOME SWELL ENERGY MAY
REMAIN WE SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREAFTER IT
LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STANDARD FARE FOR JULY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD




000
FXUS62 KILM 020205
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1005 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF UNSTABLE AIR AT THE TOP OF TODAY`S DEEP
MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THIS IS NOT A SITUATION I
WOULD HAVE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BASED AROUND 6500 FEET AGL AND BONE-DRY AIR AT AND
ABOVE 700 MB. NEVERTHELESS THERE ARE SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM FLORENCE NORTHWARD TO
NEAR BINGHAM IN WESTERN DILLON COUNTY. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO ROBESON
COUNTY NC...SO I HAVE TO AT LEAST CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AS WELL.

AT THE SURFACE HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED WESTWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN WITH 70S SHOWING UP AGAIN IN LUMBERTON...
MARION AND FLORENCE. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE TOO THIN TO BE FEEDING
THE CONVECTION DIRECTLY...AS THE SURFACE IS LIKELY DECOUPLED FROM
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT.

LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DO NOT REALLY SHOW THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY
WELL...ALTHOUGH INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z NAM DOES. THE NAM MOVES THE
SHOWERS EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...DISSIPATING THE CONVECTION
BETWEEN 06-09Z NEAR MYRTLE BEACH.

AT 500 MB THE CAROLINAS FORM THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB
SHOULD CONTINUE ON WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NUDGE OUR FRONT OFF THE COAST INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING I ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST.
LOWS SHOULD FALL 70-74...WARMEST AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD...FLAT-ISH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTION DESPITE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AIR ALOFT IS DRIEST INLAND...SO WILL
SHOW A DECREASING GRADIENT IN POPS NW FROM THE COAST FOR BOTH
DAYS. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH
FAR INLAND AREAS BEING POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND A 100 OR SO BOTH
AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE EXCEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOLED UP ALONG THE COAST. MINOR RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED THERE DURING AN OTHERWISE HOT AFTERNOON
PROVIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
SLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK THOUGH THE SENSE OF
RIDGING WEAKENS. SO WILL KEEP POPS MINIMIZED BUT SHOW THEM AREA-
WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY AS SOME WEAKLY
CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A SURFACE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. ANOTHER LITTLE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY. ON
SATURDAY NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE CONTINUED DISTURBANCES IMPINGING
UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH SEE
RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS WHEREAS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. CONVECTION FIRED UP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY NEAR AND OVER KILM THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT PERIOD TRAPPED BENEATH
AN INVERSION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY KILM. WILL MAKE MENTION
AFTER 08Z IN ALL TERMINALS FOR FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO RETURN
AFTER 12Z AND SUNDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIKE TODAY WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP VFR IN ALL TERMINALS
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR IN VSBY/CEILING IF CONVECTION OCCURS
OVER A TERMINAL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
NUDGE THE FRONT EASTWARD AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS IN THE CAPE
FEAR AREA SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST.

THE PRIMARY WAVE SET IS A 7-SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH A
SMALLER 10-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL SHOWING UP. THESE TWO WAVES
WILL CONTINUE INDEPENDENT OF THE WIND OVERNIGHT...WITH COMBINED
SEAS 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO A
SWLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS RELAX ON TUESDAY AS
PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS PUSHES THE TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE
BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THOUGH SOME SWELL ENERGY MAY
REMAIN WE SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREAFTER IT
LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STANDARD FARE FOR JULY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD





000
FXUS62 KILM 012342
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR
WILMINGTON AND NORTHWEST OF KINGSTREE SC EARLIER THIS EVENING NEAR
THE POSITION OF A STATIONARY FRONT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT
WAS ENHANCED BY THE SEABREEZE HITTING THE FRONT NEAR WILMINGTON.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND I ANTICIPATE CUMULUS CLOUDINESS SHOULD
ALMOST ENTIRELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AT 500 MB THE CAROLINAS FORM THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB
SHOULD CONTINUE ON WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NUDGE OUR FRONT OFF THE COAST INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING I ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST.
LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD...FLAT-ISH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTION DESPITE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AIR ALOFT IS DRIEST INLAND...SO WILL
SHOW A DECREASING GRADIENT IN POPS NW FROM THE COAST FOR BOTH
DAYS. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH
FAR INLAND AREAS BEING POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND A 100 OR SO BOTH
AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE EXCEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOLED UP ALONG THE COAST. MINOR RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED THERE DURING AN OTHERWISE HOT AFTERNOON
PROVIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
SLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK THOUGH THE SENSE OF
RIDGING WEAKENS. SO WILL KEEP POPS MINIMIZED BUT SHOW THEM AREA-
WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY AS SOME WEAKLY
CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A SURFACE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. ANOTHER LITTLE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY. ON
SATURDAY NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE CONTINUED DISTURBANCES IMPINGING
UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH SEE
RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS WHEREAS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. CONVECTION FIRED UP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY NEAR AND OVER KILM THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT PERIOD TRAPPED BENEATH
AN INVERSION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY KILM. WILL MAKE MENTION
AFTER 08Z IN ALL TERMINALS FOR FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO RETURN
AFTER 12Z AND SUNDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIKE TODAY WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP VFR IN ALL TERMINALS
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR IN VSBY/CEILING IF CONVECTION OCCURS
OVER A TERMINAL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
NUDGE THE FRONT EASTWARD AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS IN THE
CAPE FEAR AREA SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST.

THE PRIMARY WAVE SET IS A 7-SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH A
SMALLER 10-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL SHOWING UP. THESE TWO WAVES
WILL CONTINUE INDEPENDENT OF THE WIND OVERNIGHT...WITH COMBINED
SEAS 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO A
SWLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS RELAX ON TUESDAY AS
PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS PUSHES THE TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE
BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THOUGH SOME SWELL ENERGY MAY
REMAIN WE SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREAFTER IT
LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STANDARD FARE FOR JULY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC





000
FXUS62 KILM 012342
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR
WILMINGTON AND NORTHWEST OF KINGSTREE SC EARLIER THIS EVENING NEAR
THE POSITION OF A STATIONARY FRONT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT
WAS ENHANCED BY THE SEABREEZE HITTING THE FRONT NEAR WILMINGTON.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND I ANTICIPATE CUMULUS CLOUDINESS SHOULD
ALMOST ENTIRELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AT 500 MB THE CAROLINAS FORM THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB
SHOULD CONTINUE ON WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NUDGE OUR FRONT OFF THE COAST INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING I ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST.
LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD...FLAT-ISH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTION DESPITE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AIR ALOFT IS DRIEST INLAND...SO WILL
SHOW A DECREASING GRADIENT IN POPS NW FROM THE COAST FOR BOTH
DAYS. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH
FAR INLAND AREAS BEING POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND A 100 OR SO BOTH
AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE EXCEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOLED UP ALONG THE COAST. MINOR RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED THERE DURING AN OTHERWISE HOT AFTERNOON
PROVIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
SLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK THOUGH THE SENSE OF
RIDGING WEAKENS. SO WILL KEEP POPS MINIMIZED BUT SHOW THEM AREA-
WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY AS SOME WEAKLY
CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A SURFACE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. ANOTHER LITTLE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY. ON
SATURDAY NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE CONTINUED DISTURBANCES IMPINGING
UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH SEE
RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS WHEREAS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. CONVECTION FIRED UP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY NEAR AND OVER KILM THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT PERIOD TRAPPED BENEATH
AN INVERSION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY KILM. WILL MAKE MENTION
AFTER 08Z IN ALL TERMINALS FOR FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO RETURN
AFTER 12Z AND SUNDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIKE TODAY WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP VFR IN ALL TERMINALS
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR IN VSBY/CEILING IF CONVECTION OCCURS
OVER A TERMINAL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
NUDGE THE FRONT EASTWARD AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS IN THE
CAPE FEAR AREA SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST.

THE PRIMARY WAVE SET IS A 7-SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH A
SMALLER 10-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL SHOWING UP. THESE TWO WAVES
WILL CONTINUE INDEPENDENT OF THE WIND OVERNIGHT...WITH COMBINED
SEAS 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO A
SWLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS RELAX ON TUESDAY AS
PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS PUSHES THE TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE
BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THOUGH SOME SWELL ENERGY MAY
REMAIN WE SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREAFTER IT
LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STANDARD FARE FOR JULY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC




000
FXUS62 KILM 011924
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT STILL BISECTING THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60
IN THE NORTHWEST REACHES WHILE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER 70S. STILL EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING MET AS WE SPEAK.
THERE IS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THAT
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
THIS SHOULD PUT A LID ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SANS OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST
AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS...DAYS ARE ALMOST 40
MINUTES SHORTER NOW...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAV NUMBERS SHOULD FIT WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD...FLAT-ISH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTION DESPITE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AIR ALOFT IS DRIEST INLAND...SO WILL
SHOW A DECREASING GRADIENT IN POPS NW FROM THE COAST FOR BOTH
DAYS. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH
FAR INLAND AREAS BEING POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND A 100 OR SO BOTH
AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE EXCEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOLED UP ALONG THE COAST. MINOR RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED THERE DURING AN OTHERWISE HOT AFTERNOON
PROVIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
SLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK THOUGH THE SENSE OF
RIDGING WEAKENS. SO WILL KEEP POPS MINIMIZED BUT SHOW THEM AREA-
WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY AS SOME WEAKLY
CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A SURFACE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. ANOTHER LITTLE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY. ON
SATURDAY NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE CONTINUED DISTURBANCES IMPINGING
UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH SEE
RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS WHEREAS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN THE INLAND AND
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS VFR WITH CLEAR SCATTERED
SKIES AT KFLO/KLBT...WHILE SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LOCATED WELL
OFFSHORE. WINDS ARE LIGHT NE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SE-S AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KCRE S TO KMYR TO S OF KFLO. A BIT OF DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED. THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME TEMPO
BR POSSIBLE MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VFR WITH NE WINDS
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY WIND
SHIFT WITH THE FRONT IS WELL INLAND AND EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH THE MODEST WIND WAVES
SUPPORTED BY A TEN SECOND SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO A
SWLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS RELAX ON TUESDAY AS
PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS PUSHES THE TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE
BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THOUGH SOME SWELL ENERGY MAY
REMAIN WE SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREAFTER IT
LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STANDARD FARE FOR JULY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...99





000
FXUS62 KILM 011924
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT STILL BISECTING THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60
IN THE NORTHWEST REACHES WHILE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER 70S. STILL EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING MET AS WE SPEAK.
THERE IS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THAT
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
THIS SHOULD PUT A LID ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SANS OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST
AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS...DAYS ARE ALMOST 40
MINUTES SHORTER NOW...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAV NUMBERS SHOULD FIT WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD...FLAT-ISH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTION DESPITE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AIR ALOFT IS DRIEST INLAND...SO WILL
SHOW A DECREASING GRADIENT IN POPS NW FROM THE COAST FOR BOTH
DAYS. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH
FAR INLAND AREAS BEING POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND A 100 OR SO BOTH
AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE EXCEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOLED UP ALONG THE COAST. MINOR RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED THERE DURING AN OTHERWISE HOT AFTERNOON
PROVIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
SLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK THOUGH THE SENSE OF
RIDGING WEAKENS. SO WILL KEEP POPS MINIMIZED BUT SHOW THEM AREA-
WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY AS SOME WEAKLY
CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A SURFACE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. ANOTHER LITTLE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY. ON
SATURDAY NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE CONTINUED DISTURBANCES IMPINGING
UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH SEE
RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS WHEREAS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN THE INLAND AND
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS VFR WITH CLEAR SCATTERED
SKIES AT KFLO/KLBT...WHILE SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LOCATED WELL
OFFSHORE. WINDS ARE LIGHT NE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SE-S AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KCRE S TO KMYR TO S OF KFLO. A BIT OF DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED. THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME TEMPO
BR POSSIBLE MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VFR WITH NE WINDS
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY WIND
SHIFT WITH THE FRONT IS WELL INLAND AND EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH THE MODEST WIND WAVES
SUPPORTED BY A TEN SECOND SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO A
SWLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS RELAX ON TUESDAY AS
PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS PUSHES THE TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE
BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THOUGH SOME SWELL ENERGY MAY
REMAIN WE SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREAFTER IT
LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STANDARD FARE FOR JULY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...99




000
FXUS62 KILM 011721
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
121 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT STILL BISECTING THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60
IN THE NORTHWEST REACHES WHILE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER 70S. STILL EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING MET AS WE SPEAK.
THERE IS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THAT
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
THIS SHOULD PUT A LID ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SANS OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST
AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS...DAYS ARE ALMOST 40
MINUTES SHORTER NOW...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAV NUMBERS SHOULD FIT WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS
STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS
IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC
ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL
EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS
FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX
PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS
OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM
WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND
INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN THE INLAND AND
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS VFR WITH CLEAR SCATTERED
SKIES AT KFLO/KLBT...WHILE SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LOCATED WELL
OFFSHORE. WINDS ARE LIGHT NE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SE-S AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KCRE S TO KMYR TO S OF KFLO. A BIT OF DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED. THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME TEMPO
BR POSSIBLE MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VFR WITH NE WINDS
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY WIND
SHIFT WITH THE FRONT IS WELL INLAND AND EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH THE MODEST WIND WAVES
SUPPORTED BY A TEN SECOND SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE
DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY
AT AROUND 10 KT. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON
MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL
EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE
LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KT WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC
WIND WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4
FT SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD





000
FXUS62 KILM 011721
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
121 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT STILL BISECTING THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60
IN THE NORTHWEST REACHES WHILE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER 70S. STILL EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING MET AS WE SPEAK.
THERE IS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THAT
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
THIS SHOULD PUT A LID ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SANS OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST
AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS...DAYS ARE ALMOST 40
MINUTES SHORTER NOW...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAV NUMBERS SHOULD FIT WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS
STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS
IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC
ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL
EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS
FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX
PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS
OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM
WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND
INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN THE INLAND AND
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS VFR WITH CLEAR SCATTERED
SKIES AT KFLO/KLBT...WHILE SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LOCATED WELL
OFFSHORE. WINDS ARE LIGHT NE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SE-S AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KCRE S TO KMYR TO S OF KFLO. A BIT OF DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED. THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME TEMPO
BR POSSIBLE MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VFR WITH NE WINDS
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY WIND
SHIFT WITH THE FRONT IS WELL INLAND AND EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH THE MODEST WIND WAVES
SUPPORTED BY A TEN SECOND SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE
DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY
AT AROUND 10 KT. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON
MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL
EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE
LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KT WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC
WIND WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4
FT SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD




000
FXUS62 KILM 011721
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
121 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT STILL BISECTING THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60
IN THE NORTHWEST REACHES WHILE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER 70S. STILL EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING MET AS WE SPEAK.
THERE IS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THAT
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
THIS SHOULD PUT A LID ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SANS OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST
AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS...DAYS ARE ALMOST 40
MINUTES SHORTER NOW...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAV NUMBERS SHOULD FIT WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS
STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS
IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC
ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL
EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS
FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX
PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS
OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM
WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND
INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN THE INLAND AND
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS VFR WITH CLEAR SCATTERED
SKIES AT KFLO/KLBT...WHILE SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LOCATED WELL
OFFSHORE. WINDS ARE LIGHT NE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SE-S AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KCRE S TO KMYR TO S OF KFLO. A BIT OF DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED. THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME TEMPO
BR POSSIBLE MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VFR WITH NE WINDS
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY WIND
SHIFT WITH THE FRONT IS WELL INLAND AND EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH THE MODEST WIND WAVES
SUPPORTED BY A TEN SECOND SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE
DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY
AT AROUND 10 KT. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON
MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL
EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE
LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KT WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC
WIND WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4
FT SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD





000
FXUS62 KILM 011721
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
121 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT STILL BISECTING THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60
IN THE NORTHWEST REACHES WHILE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER 70S. STILL EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING MET AS WE SPEAK.
THERE IS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THAT
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
THIS SHOULD PUT A LID ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SANS OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST
AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS...DAYS ARE ALMOST 40
MINUTES SHORTER NOW...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAV NUMBERS SHOULD FIT WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS
STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS
IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC
ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL
EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS
FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX
PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS
OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM
WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND
INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN THE INLAND AND
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS VFR WITH CLEAR SCATTERED
SKIES AT KFLO/KLBT...WHILE SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LOCATED WELL
OFFSHORE. WINDS ARE LIGHT NE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SE-S AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KCRE S TO KMYR TO S OF KFLO. A BIT OF DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED. THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME TEMPO
BR POSSIBLE MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VFR WITH NE WINDS
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY WIND
SHIFT WITH THE FRONT IS WELL INLAND AND EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH THE MODEST WIND WAVES
SUPPORTED BY A TEN SECOND SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE
DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY
AT AROUND 10 KT. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON
MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL
EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE
LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KT WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC
WIND WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4
FT SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD




000
FXUS62 KILM 011424
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1024 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...WITH THE MORNING UPDATE I HAVE ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT TO REPRESENT THE OVERCAST SHIELD HOVERING
JUST ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO GOOD DIFLUENCE ALOFT. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST NAM ARE STILL ADVERTISING SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST AND ARCHING SOUTHWEST INTO WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. NO CHANGES
TO THE POPS OR TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS
STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS
IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC
ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL
EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS
FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX
PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS
OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM
WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND
INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A STATIONARY FRONT MARKED BY SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEW
POINTS WAS LOCATED NEAR A KFLO/KLBT LINE. IT WAS VFR WITH CLEAR
SKIES AT KFLO/KLBT EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE COASTAL TERMINALS
HAD VFR CIGS/PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS.

ANY MVFR VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z. HIGH RESOLUTION PROGS
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ONSHORE. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SINCE THERE
SHOULD BE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA. THIS SUBSIDENCE SUBSIDES BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY COARSER MODELS. BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD MOVE IN BY THEN KEEPING
ANY DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-SW BY THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NE AT KFLO/KLBT.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME TEMPO BR
POSSIBLE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. ESSENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS WEAK...TO BE EXPECTED ON THIS FIRST DAY
OF AUGUST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE
DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY
AT AROUND 10 KT. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON
MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL
EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE
LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KT WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC
WIND WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4
FT SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD





000
FXUS62 KILM 011424
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1024 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...WITH THE MORNING UPDATE I HAVE ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT TO REPRESENT THE OVERCAST SHIELD HOVERING
JUST ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO GOOD DIFLUENCE ALOFT. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST NAM ARE STILL ADVERTISING SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST AND ARCHING SOUTHWEST INTO WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. NO CHANGES
TO THE POPS OR TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS
STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS
IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC
ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL
EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS
FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX
PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS
OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM
WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND
INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A STATIONARY FRONT MARKED BY SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEW
POINTS WAS LOCATED NEAR A KFLO/KLBT LINE. IT WAS VFR WITH CLEAR
SKIES AT KFLO/KLBT EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE COASTAL TERMINALS
HAD VFR CIGS/PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS.

ANY MVFR VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z. HIGH RESOLUTION PROGS
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ONSHORE. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SINCE THERE
SHOULD BE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA. THIS SUBSIDENCE SUBSIDES BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY COARSER MODELS. BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD MOVE IN BY THEN KEEPING
ANY DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-SW BY THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NE AT KFLO/KLBT.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME TEMPO BR
POSSIBLE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. ESSENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS WEAK...TO BE EXPECTED ON THIS FIRST DAY
OF AUGUST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE
DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY
AT AROUND 10 KT. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON
MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL
EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE
LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KT WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC
WIND WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4
FT SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD





000
FXUS62 KILM 011424
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1024 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...WITH THE MORNING UPDATE I HAVE ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT TO REPRESENT THE OVERCAST SHIELD HOVERING
JUST ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO GOOD DIFLUENCE ALOFT. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST NAM ARE STILL ADVERTISING SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST AND ARCHING SOUTHWEST INTO WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. NO CHANGES
TO THE POPS OR TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS
STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS
IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC
ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL
EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS
FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX
PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS
OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM
WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND
INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A STATIONARY FRONT MARKED BY SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEW
POINTS WAS LOCATED NEAR A KFLO/KLBT LINE. IT WAS VFR WITH CLEAR
SKIES AT KFLO/KLBT EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE COASTAL TERMINALS
HAD VFR CIGS/PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS.

ANY MVFR VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z. HIGH RESOLUTION PROGS
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ONSHORE. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SINCE THERE
SHOULD BE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA. THIS SUBSIDENCE SUBSIDES BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY COARSER MODELS. BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD MOVE IN BY THEN KEEPING
ANY DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-SW BY THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NE AT KFLO/KLBT.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME TEMPO BR
POSSIBLE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. ESSENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS WEAK...TO BE EXPECTED ON THIS FIRST DAY
OF AUGUST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE
DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY
AT AROUND 10 KT. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON
MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL
EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE
LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KT WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC
WIND WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4
FT SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD




000
FXUS62 KILM 011137
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
737 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LAND BREEZE DISSIPATES AND THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. GIVEN THE SCOPE OF THE
OFFSHORE CONVECTION...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO HELP SQUELCH MORNING
CONVECTION WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

A FRONT...WHICH MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THU NIGHT AND
FRI MORNING...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED AS IT BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE DAILY SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND
LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE.

ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING AND THEN SLIDE
OFF THE COAST SUN MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS MODEL FORECASTS OF MOISTURE DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE. OVERALL...THE COLUMN WILL DRY THROUGH TIME INLAND WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DROP FROM NEAR 2 INCHES
THIS MORNING TO AN INCH AND A HALF OVERNIGHT. THE MORE COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND...BUT THE TIMING WILL LAG WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING NOT EXPECTED TIL SUN MORNING.

GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND WITH A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED INLAND AS COMPARED TO THE
COAST...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS...BUT HOLD THE COVERAGE AT SCATTERED FOR
NOW. AS YOU MOVE PROGRESSIVELY INLAND...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LESSEN AND WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND W OF A EYF TO FLO LINE. W OF
INTERSTATE 95...THE DRY AIR AND CAP MAY BE JUST A LITTLE TOO HOSTILE
AN ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STILL TO SLIDE THOUGH THE MORE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE FACT THAT THE LAND BREEZE/WEAK
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SEAWARD OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SMALL NIGHTTIME
POPS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS ONCE AGAIN.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRI...MAINLY LOWER TO MID
90S WITH SOME UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
SEASONABLE...LOWER TO MID 70S AND A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY DROP
JUST BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK BY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
DEVELOPING SURFACE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT FOG INLAND
AND WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS
STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS
IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC
ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL
EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS
FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX
PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS
OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM
WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND
INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A STATIONARY FRONT MARKED BY SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEW
POINTS WAS LOCATED NEAR A KFLO/KLBT LINE. IT WAS VFR WITH CLEAR
SKIES AT KFLO/KLBT EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE COASTAL TERMINALS
HAD VFR CIGS/PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS.

ANY MVFR VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z. HIGH RESOLUTION PROGS
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ONSHORE. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SINCE THERE
SHOULD BE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA. THIS SUBSIDENCE SUBSIDES BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY COARSER MODELS. BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD MOVE IN BY THEN KEEPING
ANY DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-SW BY THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NE AT KFLO/KLBT.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME TEMPO BR
POSSIBLE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR MOVE FURTHER
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE
CONVECTION HAD MOVED BEYOND 20 NM NEAR SUNRISE...THERE WERE STILL A
FEW SHOWERS SKIRTING THE OUTERMOST WATERS...MAINLY ACROSS AMZ250
AND 252.

A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE. FOR THE WATERS...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE S OR SSW...ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...
THE LAND BREEZE SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY OR AT
LEAST VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE
VERY WARM WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 KT...
STRONGEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE HOURS. SEAS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF A 9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL AND WIND ENERGY.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS LATE
DAY AND THIS EVE BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT
OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE
DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY
AT AROUND 10 KT. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON
MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL
EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE
LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KT WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC
WIND WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4
FT SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD





000
FXUS62 KILM 011137
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
737 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LAND BREEZE DISSIPATES AND THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. GIVEN THE SCOPE OF THE
OFFSHORE CONVECTION...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO HELP SQUELCH MORNING
CONVECTION WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

A FRONT...WHICH MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THU NIGHT AND
FRI MORNING...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED AS IT BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE DAILY SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND
LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE.

ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING AND THEN SLIDE
OFF THE COAST SUN MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS MODEL FORECASTS OF MOISTURE DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE. OVERALL...THE COLUMN WILL DRY THROUGH TIME INLAND WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DROP FROM NEAR 2 INCHES
THIS MORNING TO AN INCH AND A HALF OVERNIGHT. THE MORE COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND...BUT THE TIMING WILL LAG WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING NOT EXPECTED TIL SUN MORNING.

GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND WITH A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED INLAND AS COMPARED TO THE
COAST...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS...BUT HOLD THE COVERAGE AT SCATTERED FOR
NOW. AS YOU MOVE PROGRESSIVELY INLAND...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LESSEN AND WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND W OF A EYF TO FLO LINE. W OF
INTERSTATE 95...THE DRY AIR AND CAP MAY BE JUST A LITTLE TOO HOSTILE
AN ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STILL TO SLIDE THOUGH THE MORE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE FACT THAT THE LAND BREEZE/WEAK
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SEAWARD OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SMALL NIGHTTIME
POPS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS ONCE AGAIN.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRI...MAINLY LOWER TO MID
90S WITH SOME UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
SEASONABLE...LOWER TO MID 70S AND A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY DROP
JUST BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK BY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
DEVELOPING SURFACE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT FOG INLAND
AND WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS
STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS
IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC
ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL
EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS
FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX
PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS
OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM
WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND
INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A STATIONARY FRONT MARKED BY SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEW
POINTS WAS LOCATED NEAR A KFLO/KLBT LINE. IT WAS VFR WITH CLEAR
SKIES AT KFLO/KLBT EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE COASTAL TERMINALS
HAD VFR CIGS/PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS.

ANY MVFR VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z. HIGH RESOLUTION PROGS
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ONSHORE. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SINCE THERE
SHOULD BE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA. THIS SUBSIDENCE SUBSIDES BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY COARSER MODELS. BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD MOVE IN BY THEN KEEPING
ANY DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-SW BY THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NE AT KFLO/KLBT.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME TEMPO BR
POSSIBLE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR MOVE FURTHER
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE
CONVECTION HAD MOVED BEYOND 20 NM NEAR SUNRISE...THERE WERE STILL A
FEW SHOWERS SKIRTING THE OUTERMOST WATERS...MAINLY ACROSS AMZ250
AND 252.

A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE. FOR THE WATERS...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE S OR SSW...ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...
THE LAND BREEZE SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY OR AT
LEAST VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE
VERY WARM WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 KT...
STRONGEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE HOURS. SEAS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF A 9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL AND WIND ENERGY.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS LATE
DAY AND THIS EVE BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT
OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE
DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY
AT AROUND 10 KT. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON
MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL
EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE
LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KT WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC
WIND WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4
FT SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD




000
FXUS62 KILM 011059
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
659 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LAND BREEZE DISSIPATES AND THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. GIVEN THE SCOPE OF THE
OFFSHORE CONVECTION...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO HELP SQUELCH MORNING
CONVECTION WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

A FRONT...WHICH MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THU NIGHT AND
FRI MORNING...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED AS IT BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE DAILY SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND
LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE.

ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING AND THEN SLIDE
OFF THE COAST SUN MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS MODEL FORECASTS OF MOISTURE DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE. OVERALL...THE COLUMN WILL DRY THROUGH TIME INLAND WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DROP FROM NEAR 2 INCHES
THIS MORNING TO AN INCH AND A HALF OVERNIGHT. THE MORE COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND...BUT THE TIMING WILL LAG WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING NOT EXPECTED TIL SUN MORNING.

GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND WITH A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED INLAND AS COMPARED TO THE
COAST...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS...BUT HOLD THE COVERAGE AT SCATTERED FOR
NOW. AS YOU MOVE PROGRESSIVELY INLAND...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LESSEN AND WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND W OF A EYF TO FLO LINE. W OF
INTERSTATE 95...THE DRY AIR AND CAP MAY BE JUST A LITTLE TOO HOSTILE
AN ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STILL TO SLIDE THOUGH THE MORE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE FACT THAT THE LAND BREEZE/WEAK
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SEAWARD OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SMALL NIGHTTIME
POPS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS ONCE AGAIN.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRI...MAINLY LOWER TO MID
90S WITH SOME UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
SEASONABLE...LOWER TO MID 70S AND A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY DROP
JUST BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK BY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
DEVELOPING SURFACE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT FOG INLAND
AND WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS
STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS
IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC
ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL
EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS
FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX
PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS
OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM
WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND
INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST OFF THE NC/SC COAST AND
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO
THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOG WILL BE THE CONCERN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR AT
TIMES IN VSBY DUE TO CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER 13Z NEAR THE COAST
AND 17Z INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR MOVE FURTHER
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE
CONVECTION HAD MOVED BEYOND 20 NM NEAR SUNRISE...THERE WERE STILL A
FEW SHOWERS SKIRTING THE OUTERMOST WATERS...MAINLY ACROSS AMZ250
AND 252.

A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE. FOR THE WATERS...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE S OR SSW...ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...
THE LAND BREEZE SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY OR AT
LEAST VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE
VERY WARM WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 KT...
STRONGEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE HOURS. SEAS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF A 9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL AND WIND ENERGY.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS LATE
DAY AND THIS EVE BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT
OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE
DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY
AT AROUND 10 KT. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON
MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL
EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE
LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KT WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC
WIND WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4
FT SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT FOR
     NCZ110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD/MAC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD





000
FXUS62 KILM 011059
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
659 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LAND BREEZE DISSIPATES AND THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. GIVEN THE SCOPE OF THE
OFFSHORE CONVECTION...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO HELP SQUELCH MORNING
CONVECTION WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

A FRONT...WHICH MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THU NIGHT AND
FRI MORNING...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED AS IT BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE DAILY SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND
LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE.

ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING AND THEN SLIDE
OFF THE COAST SUN MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS MODEL FORECASTS OF MOISTURE DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE. OVERALL...THE COLUMN WILL DRY THROUGH TIME INLAND WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DROP FROM NEAR 2 INCHES
THIS MORNING TO AN INCH AND A HALF OVERNIGHT. THE MORE COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND...BUT THE TIMING WILL LAG WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING NOT EXPECTED TIL SUN MORNING.

GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND WITH A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED INLAND AS COMPARED TO THE
COAST...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS...BUT HOLD THE COVERAGE AT SCATTERED FOR
NOW. AS YOU MOVE PROGRESSIVELY INLAND...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LESSEN AND WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND W OF A EYF TO FLO LINE. W OF
INTERSTATE 95...THE DRY AIR AND CAP MAY BE JUST A LITTLE TOO HOSTILE
AN ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STILL TO SLIDE THOUGH THE MORE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE FACT THAT THE LAND BREEZE/WEAK
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SEAWARD OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SMALL NIGHTTIME
POPS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS ONCE AGAIN.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRI...MAINLY LOWER TO MID
90S WITH SOME UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
SEASONABLE...LOWER TO MID 70S AND A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY DROP
JUST BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK BY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
DEVELOPING SURFACE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT FOG INLAND
AND WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS
STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS
IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC
ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL
EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS
FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX
PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS
OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM
WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND
INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST OFF THE NC/SC COAST AND
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO
THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOG WILL BE THE CONCERN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR AT
TIMES IN VSBY DUE TO CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER 13Z NEAR THE COAST
AND 17Z INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR MOVE FURTHER
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE
CONVECTION HAD MOVED BEYOND 20 NM NEAR SUNRISE...THERE WERE STILL A
FEW SHOWERS SKIRTING THE OUTERMOST WATERS...MAINLY ACROSS AMZ250
AND 252.

A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE. FOR THE WATERS...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE S OR SSW...ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...
THE LAND BREEZE SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY OR AT
LEAST VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE
VERY WARM WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 KT...
STRONGEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE HOURS. SEAS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF A 9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL AND WIND ENERGY.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS LATE
DAY AND THIS EVE BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT
OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE
DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY
AT AROUND 10 KT. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON
MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL
EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE
LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KT WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC
WIND WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4
FT SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT FOR
     NCZ110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD/MAC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD




000
FXUS62 KILM 011059
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
659 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LAND BREEZE DISSIPATES AND THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. GIVEN THE SCOPE OF THE
OFFSHORE CONVECTION...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO HELP SQUELCH MORNING
CONVECTION WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

A FRONT...WHICH MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THU NIGHT AND
FRI MORNING...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED AS IT BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE DAILY SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND
LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE.

ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING AND THEN SLIDE
OFF THE COAST SUN MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS MODEL FORECASTS OF MOISTURE DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE. OVERALL...THE COLUMN WILL DRY THROUGH TIME INLAND WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DROP FROM NEAR 2 INCHES
THIS MORNING TO AN INCH AND A HALF OVERNIGHT. THE MORE COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND...BUT THE TIMING WILL LAG WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING NOT EXPECTED TIL SUN MORNING.

GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND WITH A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED INLAND AS COMPARED TO THE
COAST...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS...BUT HOLD THE COVERAGE AT SCATTERED FOR
NOW. AS YOU MOVE PROGRESSIVELY INLAND...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LESSEN AND WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND W OF A EYF TO FLO LINE. W OF
INTERSTATE 95...THE DRY AIR AND CAP MAY BE JUST A LITTLE TOO HOSTILE
AN ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STILL TO SLIDE THOUGH THE MORE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE FACT THAT THE LAND BREEZE/WEAK
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SEAWARD OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SMALL NIGHTTIME
POPS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS ONCE AGAIN.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRI...MAINLY LOWER TO MID
90S WITH SOME UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
SEASONABLE...LOWER TO MID 70S AND A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY DROP
JUST BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK BY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
DEVELOPING SURFACE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT FOG INLAND
AND WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS
STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS
IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC
ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL
EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS
FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX
PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS
OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM
WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND
INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST OFF THE NC/SC COAST AND
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO
THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOG WILL BE THE CONCERN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR AT
TIMES IN VSBY DUE TO CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER 13Z NEAR THE COAST
AND 17Z INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR MOVE FURTHER
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE
CONVECTION HAD MOVED BEYOND 20 NM NEAR SUNRISE...THERE WERE STILL A
FEW SHOWERS SKIRTING THE OUTERMOST WATERS...MAINLY ACROSS AMZ250
AND 252.

A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE. FOR THE WATERS...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE S OR SSW...ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...
THE LAND BREEZE SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY OR AT
LEAST VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE
VERY WARM WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 KT...
STRONGEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE HOURS. SEAS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF A 9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL AND WIND ENERGY.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS LATE
DAY AND THIS EVE BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT
OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE
DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY
AT AROUND 10 KT. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON
MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL
EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE
LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KT WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC
WIND WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4
FT SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT FOR
     NCZ110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD/MAC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD




000
FXUS62 KILM 010724
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT...WHICH MOVED INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ILL- DEFINED AS IT BECOMES INTERTWINED WITH THE DAILY SUMMERTIME
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE.

ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING AND THEN SLIDE
OFF THE COAST SUN MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS MODEL FORECASTS OF MOISTURE DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE. OVERALL...THE COLUMN WILL DRY THROUGH TIME INLAND WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DROP FROM NEAR 2 INCHES
THIS MORNING TO AN INCH AND A HALF OVERNIGHT. THE MORE COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND...BUT THE TIMING WILL LAG WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING NOT EXPECTED TIL SUN MORNING.

GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND WITH A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED INLAND AS COMPARED TO THE
COAST...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS...BUT HOLD THE COVERAGE AT SCATTERED FOR
NOW. AS YOU MOVE PROGRESSIVELY INLAND...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LESSEN AND WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND W OF A EYF TO FLO LINE. W OF
INTERSTATE 95...THE DRY AIR AND CAP MAY BE JUST A LITTLE TOO HOSTILE
AN ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STILL TO SLIDE THOUGH THE MORE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE FACT THAT THE LAND BREEZE/WEAK
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SEAWARD OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SMALL NIGHTTIME
POPS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRI...MAINLY LOWER TO MID
90S WITH SOME UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
SEASONABLE...LOWER TO MID 70S AND A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY DROP
JUST BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK BY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
DEVELOPING SURFACE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT FOG INLAND
AND WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS
STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS
IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC
ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL
EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS
FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX
PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS
OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM
WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND
INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST OFF THE NC/SC COAST AND
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO
THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOG WILL BE THE CONCERN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR AT
TIMES IN VSBY DUE TO CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER 13Z NEAR THE COAST
AND 17Z INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE
DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE. FOR THE
WATERS...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SW...ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...THE LAND BREEZE SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS IT PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE VERY WARM WATERS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 KT...STRONGEST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE HOURS. SEAS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF A
9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL AND WIND ENERGY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY
3 TO 4 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVER
THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS LATE DAY AND THIS EVE BEFORE SUBSIDING TO
3 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE
DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY
AT AROUND 10 KTS. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON
MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL
EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE
LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC WIND
WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4 FT
SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EDT THROUGH 8 PM
     EDT FOR NCZ110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD
MARINE...RJD/JDW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD




000
FXUS62 KILM 010724
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT...WHICH MOVED INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ILL- DEFINED AS IT BECOMES INTERTWINED WITH THE DAILY SUMMERTIME
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE.

ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING AND THEN SLIDE
OFF THE COAST SUN MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS MODEL FORECASTS OF MOISTURE DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE. OVERALL...THE COLUMN WILL DRY THROUGH TIME INLAND WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DROP FROM NEAR 2 INCHES
THIS MORNING TO AN INCH AND A HALF OVERNIGHT. THE MORE COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND...BUT THE TIMING WILL LAG WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING NOT EXPECTED TIL SUN MORNING.

GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND WITH A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED INLAND AS COMPARED TO THE
COAST...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS...BUT HOLD THE COVERAGE AT SCATTERED FOR
NOW. AS YOU MOVE PROGRESSIVELY INLAND...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LESSEN AND WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND W OF A EYF TO FLO LINE. W OF
INTERSTATE 95...THE DRY AIR AND CAP MAY BE JUST A LITTLE TOO HOSTILE
AN ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STILL TO SLIDE THOUGH THE MORE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE FACT THAT THE LAND BREEZE/WEAK
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SEAWARD OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SMALL NIGHTTIME
POPS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRI...MAINLY LOWER TO MID
90S WITH SOME UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
SEASONABLE...LOWER TO MID 70S AND A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY DROP
JUST BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK BY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
DEVELOPING SURFACE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT FOG INLAND
AND WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS
STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS
IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC
ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL
EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS
FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX
PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS
OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM
WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND
INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST OFF THE NC/SC COAST AND
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO
THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOG WILL BE THE CONCERN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR AT
TIMES IN VSBY DUE TO CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER 13Z NEAR THE COAST
AND 17Z INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE
DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE. FOR THE
WATERS...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SW...ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...THE LAND BREEZE SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS IT PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE VERY WARM WATERS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 KT...STRONGEST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE HOURS. SEAS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF A
9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL AND WIND ENERGY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY
3 TO 4 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVER
THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS LATE DAY AND THIS EVE BEFORE SUBSIDING TO
3 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE
DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY
AT AROUND 10 KTS. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON
MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL
EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE
LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC WIND
WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4 FT
SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EDT THROUGH 8 PM
     EDT FOR NCZ110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD
MARINE...RJD/JDW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD





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