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000
FXUS62 KILM 191420
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1020 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY AND
SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUNDAY...ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED TO SCALE BACK
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY...BASED ON DECLINING
NATURE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE. SEVERAL SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE NORTH COAST
FROM THE OCEAN...AND AREAS WEST OF I-95 APPEAR POISED TO RECEIVE A
TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH MIDDAY...OTHERWISE PROSPECTS OF SOLID
RAIN MEASUREMENTS WERE DECREASED IN THE FORECAST AND THE GRIDDED
PRODUCTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME HOPE REMAINS FOR BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER TO OFFER LOW-LEVEL HEATING WHICH COULD INITIATE
CONVECTION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR OVERNIGHT PER SEVERAL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS. FORECAST FOR
TODAY NOW READS SCATTERED EXCEPT FAR WESTERN ZONES LIKELY. DESPITE
REDUCTION IN POPS AND TIMING...A FEW TSTMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
SPC MAINTAINS MARGINAL RISK OVER NC AND SLIGHT RISK OVER PORTIONS
OF NE SC TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...INTERESTING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOST
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NORTH/OFFSHORE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST ON THE COAST EARLY...BUT ACTUALLY EXPECT THE MORNING
HOURS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART LOCALLY. THE COLUMN WILL DRY
CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
NE...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION...AND AS WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION CONTINUES THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES RISE TOWARDS 2000 J/KG...WITH THE
SREF MEAN AROUND 1500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE DEEPENING TROUGH SO PVA COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL DRIVE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...LFQ OF A SUBTROPICAL
250MB JET WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...SURFACE FORCING IS
MOSTLY WEAK AND THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY DURING THE MOST
UNSTABLE PART OF THE DAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED MONDAY AFTN/EVE...BUT ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...AND ATTM THE BEST FOCUS MAY BE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND IS NOW SLATED FOR A CROSSING JUST BEFORE DAWN
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT EXPECTING STRONG CONVECTION WITH ITS PASSAGE.
COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT CONSIDERABLY...SO WHILE TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY.

ON THE DISCUSSION OF TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES ON STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA OCCURS LATE...AND LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE
LOW 60S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80...BEFORE COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR TEMPS TO
CRASH TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MID-LEVELS EVOLVE INTO A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE
APPEARANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A LARGE VORTEX CUTOFF ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY THE
WKND. INITIALLY THIS PRODUCES BENIGN AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BENEATH THE CUTOFF...SO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE WED/THU. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...DRIVEN BY A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
MID-LEVEL VORTEX. MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS W/NW HOWEVER...SO ALTHOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT...SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BIGGER STORY COULD BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRI/SAT THANKS TO 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
DROPPING TOWARDS -2 SD`S FROM CLIMO...AND HIGHS/LOWS BY SATURDAY
COULD FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A WARM FRONT WILL WAVE NORTH TODAY...WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS TO INUNDATE THE REGION BY
16Z...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT LEFT OUT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF TIME
AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST INITIALLY...SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY AT TIMES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL DEEPEN TODAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO GIVEN THE PRETTY LARGE DISTANCE
FROM HERE BACK TO THE LOW...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE INCOMING
AIRMASS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE OCEAN SURFACE
LEADING TO MOST OF THE WIND ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER A COOL AND
STABLE LAYER OF AIR AT THE SURFACE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ALSO OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THERE
IS A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO
6 FOOT SEAS...BUT GIVEN SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BLOW BEFORE VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAKENING...I
WILL DELAY RAISING THE ADVISORY JUST YET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
PINCH THE GRADIENT MONDAY...AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL REACH 15-20
KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY
SINCE THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS OFFSHORE UNTIL FIRST
LIGHT TUESDAY...AND THUS A CHOPPY SEA STATE IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 4-5 FT...AND A SCEC MAY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE W AND THEN NW BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN SPEED FROM
10-15 KTS...TO AROUND 5 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
AREA REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL FALL INITIALLY ON
THE OFFSHORE WIND TO 2-4 FT...BEFORE DROPPING FURTHER TO 1-2 FT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...SO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SW DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SW FLOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF THURSDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD SLOWLY ONCE THE WIND BECOMES PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SW
LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY TO 3-4
FT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...TRA/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 191420
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1020 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY AND
SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUNDAY...ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED TO SCALE BACK
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY...BASED ON DECLINING
NATURE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE. SEVERAL SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE NORTH COAST
FROM THE OCEAN...AND AREAS WEST OF I-95 APPEAR POISED TO RECEIVE A
TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH MIDDAY...OTHERWISE PROSPECTS OF SOLID
RAIN MEASUREMENTS WERE DECREASED IN THE FORECAST AND THE GRIDDED
PRODUCTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME HOPE REMAINS FOR BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER TO OFFER LOW-LEVEL HEATING WHICH COULD INITIATE
CONVECTION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR OVERNIGHT PER SEVERAL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS. FORECAST FOR
TODAY NOW READS SCATTERED EXCEPT FAR WESTERN ZONES LIKELY. DESPITE
REDUCTION IN POPS AND TIMING...A FEW TSTMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
SPC MAINTAINS MARGINAL RISK OVER NC AND SLIGHT RISK OVER PORTIONS
OF NE SC TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...INTERESTING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOST
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NORTH/OFFSHORE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST ON THE COAST EARLY...BUT ACTUALLY EXPECT THE MORNING
HOURS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART LOCALLY. THE COLUMN WILL DRY
CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
NE...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION...AND AS WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION CONTINUES THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES RISE TOWARDS 2000 J/KG...WITH THE
SREF MEAN AROUND 1500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE DEEPENING TROUGH SO PVA COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL DRIVE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...LFQ OF A SUBTROPICAL
250MB JET WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...SURFACE FORCING IS
MOSTLY WEAK AND THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY DURING THE MOST
UNSTABLE PART OF THE DAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED MONDAY AFTN/EVE...BUT ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...AND ATTM THE BEST FOCUS MAY BE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND IS NOW SLATED FOR A CROSSING JUST BEFORE DAWN
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT EXPECTING STRONG CONVECTION WITH ITS PASSAGE.
COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT CONSIDERABLY...SO WHILE TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY.

ON THE DISCUSSION OF TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES ON STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA OCCURS LATE...AND LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE
LOW 60S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80...BEFORE COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR TEMPS TO
CRASH TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MID-LEVELS EVOLVE INTO A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE
APPEARANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A LARGE VORTEX CUTOFF ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY THE
WKND. INITIALLY THIS PRODUCES BENIGN AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BENEATH THE CUTOFF...SO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE WED/THU. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...DRIVEN BY A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
MID-LEVEL VORTEX. MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS W/NW HOWEVER...SO ALTHOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT...SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BIGGER STORY COULD BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRI/SAT THANKS TO 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
DROPPING TOWARDS -2 SD`S FROM CLIMO...AND HIGHS/LOWS BY SATURDAY
COULD FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A WARM FRONT WILL WAVE NORTH TODAY...WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS TO INUNDATE THE REGION BY
16Z...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT LEFT OUT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF TIME
AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST INITIALLY...SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY AT TIMES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL DEEPEN TODAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO GIVEN THE PRETTY LARGE DISTANCE
FROM HERE BACK TO THE LOW...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE INCOMING
AIRMASS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE OCEAN SURFACE
LEADING TO MOST OF THE WIND ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER A COOL AND
STABLE LAYER OF AIR AT THE SURFACE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ALSO OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THERE
IS A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO
6 FOOT SEAS...BUT GIVEN SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BLOW BEFORE VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAKENING...I
WILL DELAY RAISING THE ADVISORY JUST YET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
PINCH THE GRADIENT MONDAY...AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL REACH 15-20
KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY
SINCE THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS OFFSHORE UNTIL FIRST
LIGHT TUESDAY...AND THUS A CHOPPY SEA STATE IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 4-5 FT...AND A SCEC MAY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE W AND THEN NW BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN SPEED FROM
10-15 KTS...TO AROUND 5 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
AREA REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL FALL INITIALLY ON
THE OFFSHORE WIND TO 2-4 FT...BEFORE DROPPING FURTHER TO 1-2 FT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...SO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SW DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SW FLOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF THURSDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD SLOWLY ONCE THE WIND BECOMES PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SW
LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY TO 3-4
FT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...TRA/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 191041
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY AND MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH TODAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCOMING STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
INTERSECTING A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VEERING TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO TRANSIT
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY AND BY THIS EVENING THE 00Z GFS
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...A
VALUE TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME TROPICAL AIRMASS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...
SPREADING A ZONE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON
MUCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA...WITH 500-750 J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DARLINGTON TO FLORENCE TO CONWAY THIS
INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED ACROSS
THE 0-6KM LAYER SHOULD REACH 25-30 KT...WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY
REACHING 100-150 M^2/S^2. NONE OF THESE VALUES REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER THE ODDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE PROBABLY NON-ZERO TODAY. IF ANY SEVERE STORMS
WERE TO OCCUR THE TIME OF CONCERN WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET...WITH WIND DAMAGE OR A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING THE BIGGER THREAT. WITH SUCH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD DURING THE EARLY EVENING...A QUICK 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BEHIND THE LAST DISTURBANCE THE FORCING FOR
RAIN OR CONVECTION ENDS...AND I HAVE SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN
POPS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S EXCEPT ~5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH MILD SOUTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...INTERESTING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOST
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NORTH/OFFSHORE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST ON THE COAST EARLY...BUT ACTUALLY EXPECT THE MORNING
HOURS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART LOCALLY. THE COLUMN WILL DRY
CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
NE...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION...AND AS WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION CONTINUES THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES RISE TOWARDS 2000 J/KG...WITH THE
SREF MEAN AROUND 1500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE DEEPENING TROUGH SO PVA COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL DRIVE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...LFQ OF A SUBTROPICAL
250MB JET WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...SURFACE FORCING IS
MOSTLY WEAK AND THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY DURING THE MOST
UNSTABLE PART OF THE DAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED MONDAY AFTN/EVE...BUT ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...AND ATTM THE BEST FOCUS MAY BE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND IS NOW SLATED FOR A CROSSING JUST BEFORE DAWN
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT EXPECTING STRONG CONVECTION WITH ITS PASSAGE.
COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT CONSIDERABLY...SO WHILE TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY.

ON THE DISCUSSION OF TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES ON STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA OCCURS LATE...AND LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE
LOW 60S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80...BEFORE COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR TEMPS TO
CRASH TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MID-LEVELS EVOLVE INTO A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE
APPEARANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A LARGE VORTEX CUTOFF ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY THE
WKND. INITIALLY THIS PRODUCES BENIGN AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BENEATH THE CUTOFF...SO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE WED/THU. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...DRIVEN BY A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
MID-LEVEL VORTEX. MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS W/NW HOWEVER...SO ALTHOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT...SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BIGGER STORY COULD BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRI/SAT THANKS TO 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
DROPPING TOWARDS -2 SD`S FROM CLIMO...AND HIGHS/LOWS BY SATURDAY
COULD FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A WARM FRONT WILL WAVE NORTH TODAY...WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS TO INUNDATE THE REGION BY
16Z...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT LEFT OUT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF TIME
AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST INITIALLY...SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY AT TIMES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL DEEPEN TODAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO GIVEN THE PRETTY LARGE DISTANCE FROM
HERE BACK TO THE LOW...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE INCOMING AIRMASS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE OCEAN SURFACE LEADING TO MOST
OF THE WIND ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER A COOL AND STABLE LAYER OF AIR
AT THE SURFACE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ALSO OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THERE
IS A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO
6 FOOT SEAS...BUT GIVEN SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BLOW BEFORE VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAKENING...I
WILL DELAY RAISING THE ADVISORY JUST YET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
PINCH THE GRADIENT MONDAY...AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL REACH 15-20
KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY
SINCE THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS OFFSHORE UNTIL FIRST
LIGHT TUESDAY...AND THUS A CHOPPY SEA STATE IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 4-5 FT...AND A SCEC MAY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE W AND THEN NW BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN SPEED FROM
10-15 KTS...TO AROUND 5 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
AREA REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL FALL INITIALLY ON
THE OFFSHORE WIND TO 2-4 FT...BEFORE DROPPING FURTHER TO 1-2 FT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...SO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SW DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SW FLOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF THURSDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD SLOWLY ONCE THE WIND BECOMES PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SW
LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY TO 3-4
FT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 191041
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY AND MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH TODAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCOMING STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
INTERSECTING A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VEERING TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO TRANSIT
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY AND BY THIS EVENING THE 00Z GFS
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...A
VALUE TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME TROPICAL AIRMASS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...
SPREADING A ZONE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON
MUCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA...WITH 500-750 J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DARLINGTON TO FLORENCE TO CONWAY THIS
INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED ACROSS
THE 0-6KM LAYER SHOULD REACH 25-30 KT...WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY
REACHING 100-150 M^2/S^2. NONE OF THESE VALUES REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER THE ODDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE PROBABLY NON-ZERO TODAY. IF ANY SEVERE STORMS
WERE TO OCCUR THE TIME OF CONCERN WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET...WITH WIND DAMAGE OR A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING THE BIGGER THREAT. WITH SUCH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD DURING THE EARLY EVENING...A QUICK 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BEHIND THE LAST DISTURBANCE THE FORCING FOR
RAIN OR CONVECTION ENDS...AND I HAVE SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN
POPS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S EXCEPT ~5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH MILD SOUTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...INTERESTING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOST
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NORTH/OFFSHORE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST ON THE COAST EARLY...BUT ACTUALLY EXPECT THE MORNING
HOURS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART LOCALLY. THE COLUMN WILL DRY
CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
NE...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION...AND AS WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION CONTINUES THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES RISE TOWARDS 2000 J/KG...WITH THE
SREF MEAN AROUND 1500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE DEEPENING TROUGH SO PVA COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL DRIVE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...LFQ OF A SUBTROPICAL
250MB JET WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...SURFACE FORCING IS
MOSTLY WEAK AND THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY DURING THE MOST
UNSTABLE PART OF THE DAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED MONDAY AFTN/EVE...BUT ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...AND ATTM THE BEST FOCUS MAY BE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND IS NOW SLATED FOR A CROSSING JUST BEFORE DAWN
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT EXPECTING STRONG CONVECTION WITH ITS PASSAGE.
COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT CONSIDERABLY...SO WHILE TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY.

ON THE DISCUSSION OF TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES ON STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA OCCURS LATE...AND LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE
LOW 60S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80...BEFORE COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR TEMPS TO
CRASH TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MID-LEVELS EVOLVE INTO A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE
APPEARANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A LARGE VORTEX CUTOFF ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY THE
WKND. INITIALLY THIS PRODUCES BENIGN AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BENEATH THE CUTOFF...SO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE WED/THU. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...DRIVEN BY A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
MID-LEVEL VORTEX. MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS W/NW HOWEVER...SO ALTHOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT...SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BIGGER STORY COULD BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRI/SAT THANKS TO 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
DROPPING TOWARDS -2 SD`S FROM CLIMO...AND HIGHS/LOWS BY SATURDAY
COULD FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A WARM FRONT WILL WAVE NORTH TODAY...WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS TO INUNDATE THE REGION BY
16Z...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT LEFT OUT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF TIME
AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST INITIALLY...SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY AT TIMES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL DEEPEN TODAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO GIVEN THE PRETTY LARGE DISTANCE FROM
HERE BACK TO THE LOW...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE INCOMING AIRMASS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE OCEAN SURFACE LEADING TO MOST
OF THE WIND ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER A COOL AND STABLE LAYER OF AIR
AT THE SURFACE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ALSO OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THERE
IS A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO
6 FOOT SEAS...BUT GIVEN SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BLOW BEFORE VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAKENING...I
WILL DELAY RAISING THE ADVISORY JUST YET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
PINCH THE GRADIENT MONDAY...AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL REACH 15-20
KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY
SINCE THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS OFFSHORE UNTIL FIRST
LIGHT TUESDAY...AND THUS A CHOPPY SEA STATE IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 4-5 FT...AND A SCEC MAY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE W AND THEN NW BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN SPEED FROM
10-15 KTS...TO AROUND 5 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
AREA REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL FALL INITIALLY ON
THE OFFSHORE WIND TO 2-4 FT...BEFORE DROPPING FURTHER TO 1-2 FT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...SO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SW DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SW FLOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF THURSDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD SLOWLY ONCE THE WIND BECOMES PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SW
LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY TO 3-4
FT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 191041
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY AND MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH TODAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCOMING STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
INTERSECTING A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VEERING TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO TRANSIT
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY AND BY THIS EVENING THE 00Z GFS
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...A
VALUE TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME TROPICAL AIRMASS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...
SPREADING A ZONE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON
MUCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA...WITH 500-750 J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DARLINGTON TO FLORENCE TO CONWAY THIS
INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED ACROSS
THE 0-6KM LAYER SHOULD REACH 25-30 KT...WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY
REACHING 100-150 M^2/S^2. NONE OF THESE VALUES REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER THE ODDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE PROBABLY NON-ZERO TODAY. IF ANY SEVERE STORMS
WERE TO OCCUR THE TIME OF CONCERN WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET...WITH WIND DAMAGE OR A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING THE BIGGER THREAT. WITH SUCH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD DURING THE EARLY EVENING...A QUICK 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BEHIND THE LAST DISTURBANCE THE FORCING FOR
RAIN OR CONVECTION ENDS...AND I HAVE SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN
POPS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S EXCEPT ~5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH MILD SOUTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...INTERESTING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOST
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NORTH/OFFSHORE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST ON THE COAST EARLY...BUT ACTUALLY EXPECT THE MORNING
HOURS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART LOCALLY. THE COLUMN WILL DRY
CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
NE...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION...AND AS WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION CONTINUES THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES RISE TOWARDS 2000 J/KG...WITH THE
SREF MEAN AROUND 1500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE DEEPENING TROUGH SO PVA COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL DRIVE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...LFQ OF A SUBTROPICAL
250MB JET WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...SURFACE FORCING IS
MOSTLY WEAK AND THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY DURING THE MOST
UNSTABLE PART OF THE DAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED MONDAY AFTN/EVE...BUT ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...AND ATTM THE BEST FOCUS MAY BE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND IS NOW SLATED FOR A CROSSING JUST BEFORE DAWN
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT EXPECTING STRONG CONVECTION WITH ITS PASSAGE.
COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT CONSIDERABLY...SO WHILE TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY.

ON THE DISCUSSION OF TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES ON STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA OCCURS LATE...AND LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE
LOW 60S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80...BEFORE COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR TEMPS TO
CRASH TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MID-LEVELS EVOLVE INTO A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE
APPEARANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A LARGE VORTEX CUTOFF ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY THE
WKND. INITIALLY THIS PRODUCES BENIGN AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BENEATH THE CUTOFF...SO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE WED/THU. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...DRIVEN BY A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
MID-LEVEL VORTEX. MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS W/NW HOWEVER...SO ALTHOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT...SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BIGGER STORY COULD BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRI/SAT THANKS TO 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
DROPPING TOWARDS -2 SD`S FROM CLIMO...AND HIGHS/LOWS BY SATURDAY
COULD FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A WARM FRONT WILL WAVE NORTH TODAY...WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS TO INUNDATE THE REGION BY
16Z...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT LEFT OUT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF TIME
AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST INITIALLY...SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY AT TIMES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL DEEPEN TODAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO GIVEN THE PRETTY LARGE DISTANCE FROM
HERE BACK TO THE LOW...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE INCOMING AIRMASS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE OCEAN SURFACE LEADING TO MOST
OF THE WIND ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER A COOL AND STABLE LAYER OF AIR
AT THE SURFACE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ALSO OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THERE
IS A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO
6 FOOT SEAS...BUT GIVEN SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BLOW BEFORE VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAKENING...I
WILL DELAY RAISING THE ADVISORY JUST YET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
PINCH THE GRADIENT MONDAY...AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL REACH 15-20
KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY
SINCE THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS OFFSHORE UNTIL FIRST
LIGHT TUESDAY...AND THUS A CHOPPY SEA STATE IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 4-5 FT...AND A SCEC MAY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE W AND THEN NW BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN SPEED FROM
10-15 KTS...TO AROUND 5 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
AREA REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL FALL INITIALLY ON
THE OFFSHORE WIND TO 2-4 FT...BEFORE DROPPING FURTHER TO 1-2 FT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...SO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SW DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SW FLOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF THURSDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD SLOWLY ONCE THE WIND BECOMES PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SW
LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY TO 3-4
FT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 191041
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY AND MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH TODAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCOMING STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
INTERSECTING A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VEERING TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO TRANSIT
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY AND BY THIS EVENING THE 00Z GFS
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...A
VALUE TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME TROPICAL AIRMASS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...
SPREADING A ZONE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON
MUCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA...WITH 500-750 J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DARLINGTON TO FLORENCE TO CONWAY THIS
INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED ACROSS
THE 0-6KM LAYER SHOULD REACH 25-30 KT...WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY
REACHING 100-150 M^2/S^2. NONE OF THESE VALUES REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER THE ODDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE PROBABLY NON-ZERO TODAY. IF ANY SEVERE STORMS
WERE TO OCCUR THE TIME OF CONCERN WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET...WITH WIND DAMAGE OR A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING THE BIGGER THREAT. WITH SUCH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD DURING THE EARLY EVENING...A QUICK 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BEHIND THE LAST DISTURBANCE THE FORCING FOR
RAIN OR CONVECTION ENDS...AND I HAVE SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN
POPS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S EXCEPT ~5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH MILD SOUTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...INTERESTING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOST
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NORTH/OFFSHORE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST ON THE COAST EARLY...BUT ACTUALLY EXPECT THE MORNING
HOURS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART LOCALLY. THE COLUMN WILL DRY
CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
NE...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION...AND AS WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION CONTINUES THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES RISE TOWARDS 2000 J/KG...WITH THE
SREF MEAN AROUND 1500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE DEEPENING TROUGH SO PVA COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL DRIVE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...LFQ OF A SUBTROPICAL
250MB JET WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...SURFACE FORCING IS
MOSTLY WEAK AND THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY DURING THE MOST
UNSTABLE PART OF THE DAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED MONDAY AFTN/EVE...BUT ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...AND ATTM THE BEST FOCUS MAY BE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND IS NOW SLATED FOR A CROSSING JUST BEFORE DAWN
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT EXPECTING STRONG CONVECTION WITH ITS PASSAGE.
COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT CONSIDERABLY...SO WHILE TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY.

ON THE DISCUSSION OF TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES ON STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA OCCURS LATE...AND LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE
LOW 60S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80...BEFORE COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR TEMPS TO
CRASH TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MID-LEVELS EVOLVE INTO A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE
APPEARANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A LARGE VORTEX CUTOFF ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY THE
WKND. INITIALLY THIS PRODUCES BENIGN AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BENEATH THE CUTOFF...SO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE WED/THU. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...DRIVEN BY A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
MID-LEVEL VORTEX. MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS W/NW HOWEVER...SO ALTHOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT...SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BIGGER STORY COULD BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRI/SAT THANKS TO 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
DROPPING TOWARDS -2 SD`S FROM CLIMO...AND HIGHS/LOWS BY SATURDAY
COULD FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A WARM FRONT WILL WAVE NORTH TODAY...WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS TO INUNDATE THE REGION BY
16Z...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT LEFT OUT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF TIME
AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST INITIALLY...SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY AT TIMES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL DEEPEN TODAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO GIVEN THE PRETTY LARGE DISTANCE FROM
HERE BACK TO THE LOW...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE INCOMING AIRMASS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE OCEAN SURFACE LEADING TO MOST
OF THE WIND ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER A COOL AND STABLE LAYER OF AIR
AT THE SURFACE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ALSO OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THERE
IS A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO
6 FOOT SEAS...BUT GIVEN SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BLOW BEFORE VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAKENING...I
WILL DELAY RAISING THE ADVISORY JUST YET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
PINCH THE GRADIENT MONDAY...AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL REACH 15-20
KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY
SINCE THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS OFFSHORE UNTIL FIRST
LIGHT TUESDAY...AND THUS A CHOPPY SEA STATE IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 4-5 FT...AND A SCEC MAY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE W AND THEN NW BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN SPEED FROM
10-15 KTS...TO AROUND 5 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
AREA REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL FALL INITIALLY ON
THE OFFSHORE WIND TO 2-4 FT...BEFORE DROPPING FURTHER TO 1-2 FT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...SO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SW DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SW FLOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF THURSDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD SLOWLY ONCE THE WIND BECOMES PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SW
LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY TO 3-4
FT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 191034
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
631 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY AND MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH TODAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCOMING STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
INTERSECTING A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VEERING TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO TRANSIT
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY AND BY THIS EVENING THE 00Z GFS
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...A
VALUE TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME TROPICAL AIRMASS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...
SPREADING A ZONE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON
MUCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA...WITH 500-750 J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DARLINGTON TO FLORENCE TO CONWAY THIS
INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED ACROSS
THE 0-6KM LAYER SHOULD REACH 25-30 KT...WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY
REACHING 100-150 M^2/S^2. NONE OF THESE VALUES REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER THE ODDS OF SEVERE
WEATHER ARE CERTAINLY NON-ZERO TODAY. IF SEVERE WEATHER WERE TO
OCCUR THE TIME OF CONCERN WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
SUNSET...WITH WIND DAMAGE OR A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING THE BIGGER THREAT. WITH SUCH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD DURING THE EARLY EVENING...A QUICK 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BEHIND THE LAST DISTURBANCE THE FORCING FOR
RAIN OR CONVECTION ENDS...AND I HAVE SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN
POPS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S EXCEPT ~5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH MILD SOUTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...INTERESTING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOST
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NORTH/OFFSHORE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST ON THE COAST EARLY...BUT ACTUALLY EXPECT THE MORNING
HOURS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART LOCALLY. THE COLUMN WILL DRY
CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
NE...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION...AND AS WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION CONTINUES THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES RISE TOWARDS 2000 J/KG...WITH THE
SREF MEAN AROUND 1500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE DEEPENING TROUGH SO PVA COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL DRIVE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...LFQ OF A SUBTROPICAL
250MB JET WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...SURFACE FORCING IS
MOSTLY WEAK AND THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY DURING THE MOST
UNSTABLE PART OF THE DAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED MONDAY AFTN/EVE...BUT ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...AND ATTM THE BEST FOCUS MAY BE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND IS NOW SLATED FOR A CROSSING JUST BEFORE DAWN
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT EXPECTING STRONG CONVECTION WITH ITS PASSAGE.
COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT CONSIDERABLY...SO WHILE TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY.

ON THE DISCUSSION OF TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES ON STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA OCCURS LATE...AND LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE
LOW 60S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80...BEFORE COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR TEMPS TO
CRASH TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MID-LEVELS EVOLVE INTO A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE
APPEARANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A LARGE VORTEX CUTOFF ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY THE
WKND. INITIALLY THIS PRODUCES BENIGN AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BENEATH THE CUTOFF...SO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE WED/THU. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...DRIVEN BY A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
MID-LEVEL VORTEX. MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS W/NW HOWEVER...SO ALTHOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT...SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BIGGER STORY COULD BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRI/SAT THANKS TO 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
DROPPING TOWARDS -2 SD`S FROM CLIMO...AND HIGHS/LOWS BY SATURDAY
COULD FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A WARM FRONT WILL WAVE NORTH TODAY...WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS TO INUNDATE THE REGION BY
16Z...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT LEFT OUT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF TIME
AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST INITIALLY...SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY AT TIMES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL DEEPEN TODAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO GIVEN THE PRETTY LARGE DISTANCE FROM
HERE BACK TO THE LOW...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE INCOMING AIRMASS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE OCEAN SURFACE LEADING TO MOST
OF THE WIND ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER A COOL AND STABLE LAYER OF AIR
AT THE SURFACE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ALSO OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THERE
IS A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO
6 FOOT SEAS...BUT GIVEN SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BLOW BEFORE VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAKENING...I
WILL DELAY RAISING THE ADVISORY JUST YET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
PINCH THE GRADIENT MONDAY...AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL REACH 15-20
KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY
SINCE THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS OFFSHORE UNTIL FIRST
LIGHT TUESDAY...AND THUS A CHOPPY SEA STATE IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 4-5 FT...AND A SCEC MAY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE W AND THEN NW BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN SPEED FROM
10-15 KTS...TO AROUND 5 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
AREA REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL FALL INITIALLY ON
THE OFFSHORE WIND TO 2-4 FT...BEFORE DROPPING FURTHER TO 1-2 FT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...SO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SW DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SW FLOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF THURSDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD SLOWLY ONCE THE WIND BECOMES PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SW
LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY TO 3-4
FT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 191034
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
631 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY AND MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH TODAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCOMING STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
INTERSECTING A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VEERING TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO TRANSIT
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY AND BY THIS EVENING THE 00Z GFS
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...A
VALUE TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME TROPICAL AIRMASS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...
SPREADING A ZONE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON
MUCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA...WITH 500-750 J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DARLINGTON TO FLORENCE TO CONWAY THIS
INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED ACROSS
THE 0-6KM LAYER SHOULD REACH 25-30 KT...WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY
REACHING 100-150 M^2/S^2. NONE OF THESE VALUES REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER THE ODDS OF SEVERE
WEATHER ARE CERTAINLY NON-ZERO TODAY. IF SEVERE WEATHER WERE TO
OCCUR THE TIME OF CONCERN WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
SUNSET...WITH WIND DAMAGE OR A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING THE BIGGER THREAT. WITH SUCH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD DURING THE EARLY EVENING...A QUICK 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BEHIND THE LAST DISTURBANCE THE FORCING FOR
RAIN OR CONVECTION ENDS...AND I HAVE SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN
POPS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S EXCEPT ~5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH MILD SOUTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...INTERESTING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOST
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NORTH/OFFSHORE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST ON THE COAST EARLY...BUT ACTUALLY EXPECT THE MORNING
HOURS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART LOCALLY. THE COLUMN WILL DRY
CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
NE...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION...AND AS WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION CONTINUES THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES RISE TOWARDS 2000 J/KG...WITH THE
SREF MEAN AROUND 1500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE DEEPENING TROUGH SO PVA COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL DRIVE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...LFQ OF A SUBTROPICAL
250MB JET WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...SURFACE FORCING IS
MOSTLY WEAK AND THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY DURING THE MOST
UNSTABLE PART OF THE DAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED MONDAY AFTN/EVE...BUT ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...AND ATTM THE BEST FOCUS MAY BE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND IS NOW SLATED FOR A CROSSING JUST BEFORE DAWN
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT EXPECTING STRONG CONVECTION WITH ITS PASSAGE.
COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT CONSIDERABLY...SO WHILE TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY.

ON THE DISCUSSION OF TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES ON STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA OCCURS LATE...AND LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE
LOW 60S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80...BEFORE COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR TEMPS TO
CRASH TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MID-LEVELS EVOLVE INTO A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE
APPEARANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A LARGE VORTEX CUTOFF ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY THE
WKND. INITIALLY THIS PRODUCES BENIGN AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BENEATH THE CUTOFF...SO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE WED/THU. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...DRIVEN BY A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
MID-LEVEL VORTEX. MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS W/NW HOWEVER...SO ALTHOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT...SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BIGGER STORY COULD BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRI/SAT THANKS TO 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
DROPPING TOWARDS -2 SD`S FROM CLIMO...AND HIGHS/LOWS BY SATURDAY
COULD FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A WARM FRONT WILL WAVE NORTH TODAY...WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS TO INUNDATE THE REGION BY
16Z...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT LEFT OUT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF TIME
AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST INITIALLY...SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY AT TIMES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL DEEPEN TODAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO GIVEN THE PRETTY LARGE DISTANCE FROM
HERE BACK TO THE LOW...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE INCOMING AIRMASS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE OCEAN SURFACE LEADING TO MOST
OF THE WIND ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER A COOL AND STABLE LAYER OF AIR
AT THE SURFACE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ALSO OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THERE
IS A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO
6 FOOT SEAS...BUT GIVEN SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BLOW BEFORE VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAKENING...I
WILL DELAY RAISING THE ADVISORY JUST YET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
PINCH THE GRADIENT MONDAY...AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL REACH 15-20
KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY
SINCE THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS OFFSHORE UNTIL FIRST
LIGHT TUESDAY...AND THUS A CHOPPY SEA STATE IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 4-5 FT...AND A SCEC MAY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE W AND THEN NW BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN SPEED FROM
10-15 KTS...TO AROUND 5 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
AREA REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL FALL INITIALLY ON
THE OFFSHORE WIND TO 2-4 FT...BEFORE DROPPING FURTHER TO 1-2 FT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...SO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SW DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SW FLOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF THURSDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD SLOWLY ONCE THE WIND BECOMES PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SW
LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY TO 3-4
FT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 190747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY AND MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH TODAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCOMING STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
INTERSECTING A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VEERING TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO TRANSIT
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY AND BY THIS EVENING THE 00Z GFS
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...A
VALUE TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME TROPICAL AIRMASS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...
SPREADING A ZONE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON
MUCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA...WITH 500-750 J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DARLINGTON TO FLORENCE TO CONWAY THIS
INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED ACROSS
THE 0-6KM LAYER SHOULD REACH 25-30 KT...WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY
REACHING 100-150 M^2/S^2. NONE OF THESE VALUES REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER THE ODDS OF SEVERE
WEATHER ARE CERTAINLY NON-ZERO TODAY. IF SEVERE WEATHER WERE TO
OCCUR THE TIME OF CONCERN WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
SUNSET...WITH WIND DAMAGE OR A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING THE BIGGER THREAT. WITH SUCH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD DURING THE EARLY EVENING...A QUICK 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BEHIND THE LAST DISTURBANCE THE FORCING FOR
RAIN OR CONVECTION ENDS...AND I HAVE SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN
POPS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S EXCEPT ~5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH MILD SOUTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...INTERESTING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOST
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NORTH/OFFSHORE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST ON THE COAST EARLY...BUT ACTUALLY EXPECT THE MORNING
HOURS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART LOCALLY. THE COLUMN WILL DRY
CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
NE...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION...AND AS WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION CONTINUES THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES RISE TOWARDS 2000 J/KG...WITH THE
SREF MEAN AROUND 1500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE DEEPENING TROUGH SO PVA COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL DRIVE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...LFQ OF A SUBTROPICAL
250MB JET WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...SURFACE FORCING IS
MOSTLY WEAK AND THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY DURING THE MOST
UNSTABLE PART OF THE DAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED MONDAY AFTN/EVE...BUT ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...AND ATTM THE BEST FOCUS MAY BE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND IS NOW SLATED FOR A CROSSING JUST BEFORE DAWN
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT EXPECTING STRONG CONVECTION WITH ITS PASSAGE.
COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT CONSIDERABLY...SO WHILE TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY.

ON THE DISCUSSION OF TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES ON STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA OCCURS LATE...AND LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE
LOW 60S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80...BEFORE COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR TEMPS TO
CRASH TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MID-LEVELS EVOLVE INTO A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE
APPEARANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A LARGE VORTEX CUTOFF ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY THE
WKND. INITIALLY THIS PRODUCES BENIGN AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BENEATH THE CUTOFF...SO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE WED/THU. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...DRIVEN BY A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
MID-LEVEL VORTEX. MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS W/NW HOWEVER...SO ALTHOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT...SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BIGGER STORY COULD BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRI/SAT THANKS TO 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
DROPPING TOWARDS -2 SD`S FROM CLIMO...AND HIGHS/LOWS BY SATURDAY
COULD FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
MVFR/IFR LATE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH INTO SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

OVERALL...VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS...AS WELL AS MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS AS SEEN FROM LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO
DEPICTING PATCHY FOG INLAND...JUST AT MARGINAL VFR/MVFR STATUS ATTM.
WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT CREATING
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS IN THE MORNING TO BECOME
EAST-SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MOVE THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL DEEPEN TODAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO GIVEN THE PRETTY LARGE DISTANCE FROM
HERE BACK TO THE LOW...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE INCOMING AIRMASS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE OCEAN SURFACE LEADING TO MOST
OF THE WIND ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER A COOL AND STABLE LAYER OF AIR
AT THE SURFACE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ALSO OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THERE
IS A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO
6 FOOT SEAS...BUT GIVEN SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BLOW BEFORE VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAKENING...I
WILL DELAY RAISING THE ADVISORY JUST YET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
PINCH THE GRADIENT MONDAY...AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL REACH 15-20
KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY
SINCE THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS OFFSHORE UNTIL FIRST
LIGHT TUESDAY...AND THUS A CHOPPY SEA STATE IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 4-5 FT...AND A SCEC MAY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE W AND THEN NW BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN SPEED FROM
10-15 KTS...TO AROUND 5 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
AREA REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL FALL INITIALLY ON
THE OFFSHORE WIND TO 2-4 FT...BEFORE DROPPING FURTHER TO 1-2 FT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...SO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SW DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SW FLOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF THURSDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD SLOWLY ONCE THE WIND BECOMES PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SW
LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY TO 3-4
FT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 190747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY AND MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH TODAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCOMING STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
INTERSECTING A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VEERING TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO TRANSIT
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY AND BY THIS EVENING THE 00Z GFS
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...A
VALUE TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME TROPICAL AIRMASS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...
SPREADING A ZONE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON
MUCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA...WITH 500-750 J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DARLINGTON TO FLORENCE TO CONWAY THIS
INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED ACROSS
THE 0-6KM LAYER SHOULD REACH 25-30 KT...WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY
REACHING 100-150 M^2/S^2. NONE OF THESE VALUES REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER THE ODDS OF SEVERE
WEATHER ARE CERTAINLY NON-ZERO TODAY. IF SEVERE WEATHER WERE TO
OCCUR THE TIME OF CONCERN WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
SUNSET...WITH WIND DAMAGE OR A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING THE BIGGER THREAT. WITH SUCH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD DURING THE EARLY EVENING...A QUICK 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BEHIND THE LAST DISTURBANCE THE FORCING FOR
RAIN OR CONVECTION ENDS...AND I HAVE SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN
POPS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S EXCEPT ~5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH MILD SOUTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...INTERESTING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOST
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NORTH/OFFSHORE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST ON THE COAST EARLY...BUT ACTUALLY EXPECT THE MORNING
HOURS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART LOCALLY. THE COLUMN WILL DRY
CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
NE...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION...AND AS WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION CONTINUES THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES RISE TOWARDS 2000 J/KG...WITH THE
SREF MEAN AROUND 1500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE DEEPENING TROUGH SO PVA COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL DRIVE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...LFQ OF A SUBTROPICAL
250MB JET WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...SURFACE FORCING IS
MOSTLY WEAK AND THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY DURING THE MOST
UNSTABLE PART OF THE DAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED MONDAY AFTN/EVE...BUT ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...AND ATTM THE BEST FOCUS MAY BE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND IS NOW SLATED FOR A CROSSING JUST BEFORE DAWN
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT EXPECTING STRONG CONVECTION WITH ITS PASSAGE.
COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT CONSIDERABLY...SO WHILE TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY.

ON THE DISCUSSION OF TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES ON STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA OCCURS LATE...AND LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE
LOW 60S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80...BEFORE COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR TEMPS TO
CRASH TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MID-LEVELS EVOLVE INTO A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE
APPEARANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A LARGE VORTEX CUTOFF ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY THE
WKND. INITIALLY THIS PRODUCES BENIGN AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BENEATH THE CUTOFF...SO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE WED/THU. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...DRIVEN BY A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
MID-LEVEL VORTEX. MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS W/NW HOWEVER...SO ALTHOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT...SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BIGGER STORY COULD BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRI/SAT THANKS TO 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
DROPPING TOWARDS -2 SD`S FROM CLIMO...AND HIGHS/LOWS BY SATURDAY
COULD FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
MVFR/IFR LATE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH INTO SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

OVERALL...VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS...AS WELL AS MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS AS SEEN FROM LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO
DEPICTING PATCHY FOG INLAND...JUST AT MARGINAL VFR/MVFR STATUS ATTM.
WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT CREATING
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS IN THE MORNING TO BECOME
EAST-SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MOVE THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL DEEPEN TODAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO GIVEN THE PRETTY LARGE DISTANCE FROM
HERE BACK TO THE LOW...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE INCOMING AIRMASS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE OCEAN SURFACE LEADING TO MOST
OF THE WIND ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER A COOL AND STABLE LAYER OF AIR
AT THE SURFACE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ALSO OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THERE
IS A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO
6 FOOT SEAS...BUT GIVEN SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BLOW BEFORE VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAKENING...I
WILL DELAY RAISING THE ADVISORY JUST YET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
PINCH THE GRADIENT MONDAY...AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL REACH 15-20
KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY
SINCE THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS OFFSHORE UNTIL FIRST
LIGHT TUESDAY...AND THUS A CHOPPY SEA STATE IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 4-5 FT...AND A SCEC MAY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE W AND THEN NW BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN SPEED FROM
10-15 KTS...TO AROUND 5 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
AREA REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL FALL INITIALLY ON
THE OFFSHORE WIND TO 2-4 FT...BEFORE DROPPING FURTHER TO 1-2 FT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...SO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SW DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SW FLOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF THURSDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD SLOWLY ONCE THE WIND BECOMES PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SW
LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY TO 3-4
FT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 190747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY AND MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH TODAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCOMING STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
INTERSECTING A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VEERING TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO TRANSIT
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY AND BY THIS EVENING THE 00Z GFS
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...A
VALUE TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME TROPICAL AIRMASS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...
SPREADING A ZONE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON
MUCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA...WITH 500-750 J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DARLINGTON TO FLORENCE TO CONWAY THIS
INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED ACROSS
THE 0-6KM LAYER SHOULD REACH 25-30 KT...WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY
REACHING 100-150 M^2/S^2. NONE OF THESE VALUES REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER THE ODDS OF SEVERE
WEATHER ARE CERTAINLY NON-ZERO TODAY. IF SEVERE WEATHER WERE TO
OCCUR THE TIME OF CONCERN WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
SUNSET...WITH WIND DAMAGE OR A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING THE BIGGER THREAT. WITH SUCH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD DURING THE EARLY EVENING...A QUICK 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BEHIND THE LAST DISTURBANCE THE FORCING FOR
RAIN OR CONVECTION ENDS...AND I HAVE SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN
POPS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S EXCEPT ~5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH MILD SOUTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...INTERESTING START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOST
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NORTH/OFFSHORE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST ON THE COAST EARLY...BUT ACTUALLY EXPECT THE MORNING
HOURS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART LOCALLY. THE COLUMN WILL DRY
CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
NE...AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION...AND AS WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION CONTINUES THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES RISE TOWARDS 2000 J/KG...WITH THE
SREF MEAN AROUND 1500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE DEEPENING TROUGH SO PVA COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL DRIVE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...LFQ OF A SUBTROPICAL
250MB JET WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...SURFACE FORCING IS
MOSTLY WEAK AND THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY DURING THE MOST
UNSTABLE PART OF THE DAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED MONDAY AFTN/EVE...BUT ANY STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...AND ATTM THE BEST FOCUS MAY BE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND IS NOW SLATED FOR A CROSSING JUST BEFORE DAWN
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT EXPECTING STRONG CONVECTION WITH ITS PASSAGE.
COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT CONSIDERABLY...SO WHILE TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY.

ON THE DISCUSSION OF TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES ON STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA OCCURS LATE...AND LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE
LOW 60S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80...BEFORE COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR TEMPS TO
CRASH TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MID-LEVELS EVOLVE INTO A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE
APPEARANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A LARGE VORTEX CUTOFF ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY THE
WKND. INITIALLY THIS PRODUCES BENIGN AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BENEATH THE CUTOFF...SO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE WED/THU. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...DRIVEN BY A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
MID-LEVEL VORTEX. MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS W/NW HOWEVER...SO ALTHOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT...SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BIGGER STORY COULD BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRI/SAT THANKS TO 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
DROPPING TOWARDS -2 SD`S FROM CLIMO...AND HIGHS/LOWS BY SATURDAY
COULD FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
MVFR/IFR LATE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH INTO SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

OVERALL...VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS...AS WELL AS MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS AS SEEN FROM LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO
DEPICTING PATCHY FOG INLAND...JUST AT MARGINAL VFR/MVFR STATUS ATTM.
WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT CREATING
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS IN THE MORNING TO BECOME
EAST-SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MOVE THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL DEEPEN TODAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO GIVEN THE PRETTY LARGE DISTANCE FROM
HERE BACK TO THE LOW...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE INCOMING AIRMASS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE OCEAN SURFACE LEADING TO MOST
OF THE WIND ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER A COOL AND STABLE LAYER OF AIR
AT THE SURFACE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ALSO OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THERE
IS A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO
6 FOOT SEAS...BUT GIVEN SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BLOW BEFORE VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAKENING...I
WILL DELAY RAISING THE ADVISORY JUST YET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
PINCH THE GRADIENT MONDAY...AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL REACH 15-20
KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY
SINCE THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS OFFSHORE UNTIL FIRST
LIGHT TUESDAY...AND THUS A CHOPPY SEA STATE IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 4-5 FT...AND A SCEC MAY BE NEEDED MUCH OF
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE W AND THEN NW BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN SPEED FROM
10-15 KTS...TO AROUND 5 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
AREA REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL FALL INITIALLY ON
THE OFFSHORE WIND TO 2-4 FT...BEFORE DROPPING FURTHER TO 1-2 FT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...SO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SW DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SW FLOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF THURSDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT
WILL BUILD SLOWLY ONCE THE WIND BECOMES PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SW
LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY TO 3-4
FT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 190522
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
121 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...WE`RE PROBABLY AT A CONVECTIVE MINIMUM RIGHT
NOW. LATEST HRRR AND HRRRX MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
PEE DEE REGION AS THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND BETTER UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW DOWNWARD TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO
FORECAST LOW TEMPS NEAR THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...

THE DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
FA AND IS NOW BASICALLY WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...AND IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WILL DROP POPS TO ISOLATED IN COVERAGE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA BUT ONLY FOR TEMPORARILY THIS EVENING UP
TO A FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH AND POSSIBLY BACKDOORING THE FA OVERNIGHT BEFORE
TEMPORARILY STALLING...AND A FEW LEFTOVER SHALLOW MESOSCALE SFC
BOUNDARIES PRESENT. WILL NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE PCPN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IN FACT...DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF SUNDAY THRU DAYBREAK...LOOK
FOR POPS TO RAMP BACK UP ACROSS THE ILM CWA FROM SW TO NE...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OR POSSIBLY LIKELY ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS BY SUNRISE
SUN. INCREASING MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM A SERIES OF S/W MID-LEVEL
TROUGHS...PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE WITH 00Z SUNDAY NEARBY SOUNDINGS
AND MODEL PROGS INDICATING PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...AND AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC BASED BOUNDARIES WILL LIE ACROSS THE FA
ALLOWING FOR SFC BASED CONVERGENCE TO AID MORE ORGANIZED PCPN
DEVELOPMENT TO COMPLEMENT THE MID-LEVEL SUPPORT. LATEST MIN TEMPS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOOKING AOK AND SEE NO REASON TO FURTHER TWEAK
FROM EARLIER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY
APPEARS THE MORE OPTIMUM SET-UP FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH MORE
ROBUST KINEMATIC FIELDS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL HEATING JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY SUNDAY MAY IMPEDE
CONVECTION INITIATION/GROWTH. SUNDAY MEANWHILE OFFERS THE HIGHER
RAIN AMOUNTS AS COLUMN MOISTURE SURGES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF
THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS SURGE TO 1.8". SEVERAL MCV
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SWEPT NE IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT IR ANIMATIONS
SHOW COLD TOPS INDEED FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WPC QPF DEPICTIONS SHOW .75-1 INCH BASIN AVERAGES SUNDAY...AND
WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE GREATER
AMOUNTS. MONDAY LESS BASIN QPF BUT MORE POWERFUL STORMS IN THE
CARDS WITH MAXIMUMS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AIDING INSOLATION AND CELL POPS. SPC PAINTS SLIGHT RISK FOR BOTH
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BALMY PERIOD OVERALL AND BEST GUESS ON
FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW SLATED AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE LOOKING UPPER PATTERN
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
COLUMN DRY AND LEAD TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS LOCALLY. LOW LEVELS WILL
BE DRY AS WELL THROUGH SOME TIME WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOON THEREAFTER THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND
SOME MOISTENING RETURN FLOW ENSUES. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS
CALLING FOR RAIN AS SOON AS THURSDAY BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW STILL FEEL THAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS THE
BETTER DAY TO INTRODUCE SOME RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THOUGH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIE TO
OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY SOME LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY PAIRED WITH MID
LEVEL VORT APPROACHING TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
MVFR/IFR LATE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH INTO SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

OVERALL...VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS...AS WELL AS MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS AS SEEN FROM LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO
DEPICTING PATCHY FOG INLAND...JUST AT MARGINAL VFR/MVFR STATUS ATTM.
WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT CREATING
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS IN THE MORNING TO BECOME
EAST-SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MOVE THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST I HAVE
BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS MORE NORTHERLY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE NEEDED. DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...

NO CHANGES TO THE WINDS FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. WINDS TO BECOME NE-
E THROUGHOUT...AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT...WITH THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. THIS A RESULT OF THE BACKDOOR FRONTS
POSITIONING WITH ENOUGH TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG AS RIDGING EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM THE NE STATES SFC HIGH. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4
FT...WITH THE 4 FOOTERS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR...AND NORTHWARD. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 8 TO 9 SECONDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE 2 TO 3 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL. HAVE REDUCED THE POPS
FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST 88D TRENDS. SHOULD SEE POPS
INCREASE DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HRS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY MARINE REGIME
ON TAP THIS PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND WORSENS
LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVE GROWTH HOWEVER MAY BE LIMITED SINCE
SE-S WIND FLOW HAS LIMITED STAYING TIME BEFORE WINDS GO SW EARLY
ON MONDAY. HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FEET SUNDAY FOR NOW WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SET TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...OFFSHORE/NORTHWESTERLY POST COLD FRONTAL
FLOW REGIME ON TUESDAY WILL GROW LIGHTER LATE IN THE DAY AND AT
NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT GRADIENT WHEREIN WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
AND VEER IN DIRECTION FOR AN EXTENDED TIME UNTIL FINALLY SETTLING
ON SOUTHERLY BY WED EVE. SUCH LIGHT WINDS IN THE ABSENCE OF SWELL
ENERGY OUGHT TO BE GOOD FOR MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A ONE CATEGORY
RISE IN WINDS AND A WAVES FORECAST RISING TO JUST THE 2 TO 3 FT
RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 190522
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
121 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...WE`RE PROBABLY AT A CONVECTIVE MINIMUM RIGHT
NOW. LATEST HRRR AND HRRRX MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
PEE DEE REGION AS THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND BETTER UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW DOWNWARD TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO
FORECAST LOW TEMPS NEAR THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...

THE DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
FA AND IS NOW BASICALLY WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...AND IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WILL DROP POPS TO ISOLATED IN COVERAGE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA BUT ONLY FOR TEMPORARILY THIS EVENING UP
TO A FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH AND POSSIBLY BACKDOORING THE FA OVERNIGHT BEFORE
TEMPORARILY STALLING...AND A FEW LEFTOVER SHALLOW MESOSCALE SFC
BOUNDARIES PRESENT. WILL NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE PCPN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IN FACT...DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF SUNDAY THRU DAYBREAK...LOOK
FOR POPS TO RAMP BACK UP ACROSS THE ILM CWA FROM SW TO NE...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OR POSSIBLY LIKELY ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS BY SUNRISE
SUN. INCREASING MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM A SERIES OF S/W MID-LEVEL
TROUGHS...PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE WITH 00Z SUNDAY NEARBY SOUNDINGS
AND MODEL PROGS INDICATING PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...AND AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC BASED BOUNDARIES WILL LIE ACROSS THE FA
ALLOWING FOR SFC BASED CONVERGENCE TO AID MORE ORGANIZED PCPN
DEVELOPMENT TO COMPLEMENT THE MID-LEVEL SUPPORT. LATEST MIN TEMPS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOOKING AOK AND SEE NO REASON TO FURTHER TWEAK
FROM EARLIER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY
APPEARS THE MORE OPTIMUM SET-UP FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH MORE
ROBUST KINEMATIC FIELDS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL HEATING JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY SUNDAY MAY IMPEDE
CONVECTION INITIATION/GROWTH. SUNDAY MEANWHILE OFFERS THE HIGHER
RAIN AMOUNTS AS COLUMN MOISTURE SURGES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF
THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS SURGE TO 1.8". SEVERAL MCV
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SWEPT NE IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT IR ANIMATIONS
SHOW COLD TOPS INDEED FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WPC QPF DEPICTIONS SHOW .75-1 INCH BASIN AVERAGES SUNDAY...AND
WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE GREATER
AMOUNTS. MONDAY LESS BASIN QPF BUT MORE POWERFUL STORMS IN THE
CARDS WITH MAXIMUMS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AIDING INSOLATION AND CELL POPS. SPC PAINTS SLIGHT RISK FOR BOTH
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BALMY PERIOD OVERALL AND BEST GUESS ON
FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW SLATED AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE LOOKING UPPER PATTERN
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
COLUMN DRY AND LEAD TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS LOCALLY. LOW LEVELS WILL
BE DRY AS WELL THROUGH SOME TIME WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOON THEREAFTER THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND
SOME MOISTENING RETURN FLOW ENSUES. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS
CALLING FOR RAIN AS SOON AS THURSDAY BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW STILL FEEL THAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS THE
BETTER DAY TO INTRODUCE SOME RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THOUGH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIE TO
OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY SOME LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY PAIRED WITH MID
LEVEL VORT APPROACHING TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
MVFR/IFR LATE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH INTO SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

OVERALL...VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS...AS WELL AS MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS AS SEEN FROM LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO
DEPICTING PATCHY FOG INLAND...JUST AT MARGINAL VFR/MVFR STATUS ATTM.
WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT CREATING
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS IN THE MORNING TO BECOME
EAST-SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MOVE THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST I HAVE
BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS MORE NORTHERLY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE NEEDED. DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...

NO CHANGES TO THE WINDS FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. WINDS TO BECOME NE-
E THROUGHOUT...AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT...WITH THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. THIS A RESULT OF THE BACKDOOR FRONTS
POSITIONING WITH ENOUGH TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG AS RIDGING EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM THE NE STATES SFC HIGH. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4
FT...WITH THE 4 FOOTERS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR...AND NORTHWARD. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 8 TO 9 SECONDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE 2 TO 3 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL. HAVE REDUCED THE POPS
FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST 88D TRENDS. SHOULD SEE POPS
INCREASE DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HRS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY MARINE REGIME
ON TAP THIS PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND WORSENS
LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVE GROWTH HOWEVER MAY BE LIMITED SINCE
SE-S WIND FLOW HAS LIMITED STAYING TIME BEFORE WINDS GO SW EARLY
ON MONDAY. HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FEET SUNDAY FOR NOW WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SET TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...OFFSHORE/NORTHWESTERLY POST COLD FRONTAL
FLOW REGIME ON TUESDAY WILL GROW LIGHTER LATE IN THE DAY AND AT
NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT GRADIENT WHEREIN WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
AND VEER IN DIRECTION FOR AN EXTENDED TIME UNTIL FINALLY SETTLING
ON SOUTHERLY BY WED EVE. SUCH LIGHT WINDS IN THE ABSENCE OF SWELL
ENERGY OUGHT TO BE GOOD FOR MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A ONE CATEGORY
RISE IN WINDS AND A WAVES FORECAST RISING TO JUST THE 2 TO 3 FT
RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 190252
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1052 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM SATURDAY...THE DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE FA AND IS NOW BASICALLY WIDELY SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE...AND IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. WILL DROP
POPS TO ISOLATED IN COVERAGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA BUT ONLY
FOR TEMPORARILY THIS EVENING UP TO A FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH AND POSSIBLY
BACKDOORING THE FA OVERNIGHT BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING...AND A
FEW LEFTOVER SHALLOW MESOSCALE SFC BOUNDARIES PRESENT. WILL NOT
ENTIRELY REMOVE PCPN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IN FACT...DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF SUNDAY THRU DAYBREAK...LOOK
FOR POPS TO RAMP BACK UP ACROSS THE ILM CWA FROM SW TO NE...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OR POSSIBLY LIKELY ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS BY SUNRISE
SUN. INCREASING MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM A SERIES OF S/W MID-LEVEL
TROFS...PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE WITH 00Z SUNDAY NEARBY SOUNDINGS
AND MODEL PROGS INDICATING PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...AND AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC BASED BOUNDARIES WILL LIE ACROSS THE FA
ALLOWING FOR SFC BASED CONVERGENCE TO AID MORE ORGANIZED PCPN
DEVELOPMENT TO COMPLEMENT THE MID-LEVEL SUPPORT. LATEST MIN TEMPS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOOKING AOK AND SEE NO REASON TO FURTHER TWEAK
FROM EARLIER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY
APPEARS THE MORE OPTIMUM SET-UP FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH MORE
ROBUST KINEMATIC FIELDS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL HEATING JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY SUNDAY MAY IMPEDE
CONVECTION INITIATION/GROWTH. SUNDAY MEANWHILE OFFERS THE HIGHER
RAIN AMOUNTS AS COLUMN MOISTURE SURGES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF
THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS SURGE TO 1.8". SEVERAL MCV
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SWEPT NE IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT IR ANIMATIONS
SHOW COLD TOPS INDEED FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WPC QPF DEPICTIONS SHOW .75-1 INCH BASIN AVERAGES SUNDAY...AND
WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE GREATER
AMOUNTS. MONDAY LESS BASIN QPF BUT MORE POWERFUL STORMS IN THE
CARDS WITH MAXIMUMS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AIDING INSOLATION AND CELL POPS. SPC PAINTS SLIGHT RISK FOR BOTH
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BALMY PERIOD OVERALL AND BEST GUESS ON
FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW SLATED AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE LOOKING UPPER PATTERN
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
COLUMN DRY AND LEAD TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS LOCALLY. LOW LEVELS WILL
BE DRY AS WELL THROUGH SOME TIME WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOON THEREAFTER THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND
SOME MOISTENING RETURN FLOW ENSUES. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS
CALLING FOR RAIN AS SOON AS THURSDAY BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW STILL FEEL THAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS THE
BETTER DAY TO INTRODUCE SOME RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THOUGH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIE TO
OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY SOME LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY PAIRED WITH MID
LEVEL VORT APPROACHING TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS INTERMITTENT
LOW CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
LATE OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS...AS WELL AS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AS
SEEN FROM LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING ANY TAF SITES. INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH LOW CIGS AND
AREAS OF FOG. WILL NOT RULE OUT MEANDERING LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS IN THE MORNING TO BECOME
EAST-SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MOVE THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE WINDS FROM THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE. WINDS TO BECOME NE-E THRUOUT...AND INCREASE TO 10-15
KT...WITH THE HIER WIND SPEEDS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. THIS A
RESULT OF THE BACKDOOR FRONTS POSITIONING WITH ENOUGH TIGHTENING
OF THE SFC PG AS RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE NE STATES SFC
HIGH. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4 FOOTERS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND NORTHWARD.
DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 8 TO 9 SECONDS IN RESPONSE TO THE 2 TO
3 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL. HAVE REDUCED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING
BASED ON LATEST 88D TRENDS. SHOULD SEE POPS INCREASE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN SUN HRS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY MARINE REGIME
ON TAP THIS PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND WORSENS
LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVE GROWTH HOWEVER MAY BE LIMITED SINCE
SE-S WIND FLOW HAS LIMITED STAYING TIME BEFORE WINDS GO SW EARLY
ON MONDAY. HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FEET SUNDAY FOR NOW WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SET TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...OFFSHORE/NORTHWESTERLY POST COLD FRONTAL
FLOW REGIME ON TUESDAY WILL GROW LIGHTER LATE IN THE DAY AND AT
NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT GRADIENT WHEREIN WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
AND VEER IN DIRECTION FOR AN EXTENDED TIME UNTIL FINALLY SETTLING
ON SOUTHERLY BY WED EVE. SUCH LIGHT WINDS IN THE ABSENCE OF SWELL
ENERGY OUGHT TO BE GOOD FOR MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A ONE CATEGORY
RISE IN WINDS AND A WAVES FORECAST RISING TO JUST THE 2 TO 3 FT
RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 190252
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1052 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM SATURDAY...THE DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE FA AND IS NOW BASICALLY WIDELY SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE...AND IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. WILL DROP
POPS TO ISOLATED IN COVERAGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA BUT ONLY
FOR TEMPORARILY THIS EVENING UP TO A FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH AND POSSIBLY
BACKDOORING THE FA OVERNIGHT BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING...AND A
FEW LEFTOVER SHALLOW MESOSCALE SFC BOUNDARIES PRESENT. WILL NOT
ENTIRELY REMOVE PCPN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

IN FACT...DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF SUNDAY THRU DAYBREAK...LOOK
FOR POPS TO RAMP BACK UP ACROSS THE ILM CWA FROM SW TO NE...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OR POSSIBLY LIKELY ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS BY SUNRISE
SUN. INCREASING MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM A SERIES OF S/W MID-LEVEL
TROFS...PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE WITH 00Z SUNDAY NEARBY SOUNDINGS
AND MODEL PROGS INDICATING PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...AND AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC BASED BOUNDARIES WILL LIE ACROSS THE FA
ALLOWING FOR SFC BASED CONVERGENCE TO AID MORE ORGANIZED PCPN
DEVELOPMENT TO COMPLEMENT THE MID-LEVEL SUPPORT. LATEST MIN TEMPS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOOKING AOK AND SEE NO REASON TO FURTHER TWEAK
FROM EARLIER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY
APPEARS THE MORE OPTIMUM SET-UP FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH MORE
ROBUST KINEMATIC FIELDS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL HEATING JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY SUNDAY MAY IMPEDE
CONVECTION INITIATION/GROWTH. SUNDAY MEANWHILE OFFERS THE HIGHER
RAIN AMOUNTS AS COLUMN MOISTURE SURGES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF
THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS SURGE TO 1.8". SEVERAL MCV
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SWEPT NE IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT IR ANIMATIONS
SHOW COLD TOPS INDEED FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WPC QPF DEPICTIONS SHOW .75-1 INCH BASIN AVERAGES SUNDAY...AND
WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE GREATER
AMOUNTS. MONDAY LESS BASIN QPF BUT MORE POWERFUL STORMS IN THE
CARDS WITH MAXIMUMS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AIDING INSOLATION AND CELL POPS. SPC PAINTS SLIGHT RISK FOR BOTH
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BALMY PERIOD OVERALL AND BEST GUESS ON
FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW SLATED AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE LOOKING UPPER PATTERN
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
COLUMN DRY AND LEAD TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS LOCALLY. LOW LEVELS WILL
BE DRY AS WELL THROUGH SOME TIME WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOON THEREAFTER THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND
SOME MOISTENING RETURN FLOW ENSUES. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS
CALLING FOR RAIN AS SOON AS THURSDAY BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW STILL FEEL THAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS THE
BETTER DAY TO INTRODUCE SOME RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THOUGH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIE TO
OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY SOME LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY PAIRED WITH MID
LEVEL VORT APPROACHING TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS INTERMITTENT
LOW CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
LATE OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS...AS WELL AS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AS
SEEN FROM LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING ANY TAF SITES. INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH LOW CIGS AND
AREAS OF FOG. WILL NOT RULE OUT MEANDERING LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS IN THE MORNING TO BECOME
EAST-SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MOVE THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE WINDS FROM THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE. WINDS TO BECOME NE-E THRUOUT...AND INCREASE TO 10-15
KT...WITH THE HIER WIND SPEEDS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. THIS A
RESULT OF THE BACKDOOR FRONTS POSITIONING WITH ENOUGH TIGHTENING
OF THE SFC PG AS RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE NE STATES SFC
HIGH. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4 FOOTERS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND NORTHWARD.
DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 8 TO 9 SECONDS IN RESPONSE TO THE 2 TO
3 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL. HAVE REDUCED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING
BASED ON LATEST 88D TRENDS. SHOULD SEE POPS INCREASE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN SUN HRS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY MARINE REGIME
ON TAP THIS PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND WORSENS
LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVE GROWTH HOWEVER MAY BE LIMITED SINCE
SE-S WIND FLOW HAS LIMITED STAYING TIME BEFORE WINDS GO SW EARLY
ON MONDAY. HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FEET SUNDAY FOR NOW WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SET TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...OFFSHORE/NORTHWESTERLY POST COLD FRONTAL
FLOW REGIME ON TUESDAY WILL GROW LIGHTER LATE IN THE DAY AND AT
NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT GRADIENT WHEREIN WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
AND VEER IN DIRECTION FOR AN EXTENDED TIME UNTIL FINALLY SETTLING
ON SOUTHERLY BY WED EVE. SUCH LIGHT WINDS IN THE ABSENCE OF SWELL
ENERGY OUGHT TO BE GOOD FOR MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A ONE CATEGORY
RISE IN WINDS AND A WAVES FORECAST RISING TO JUST THE 2 TO 3 FT
RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 182354
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
754 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...THE DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION SHOULD
FADE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...WITH A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE ILM CWA AND LEFTOVER SHALLOW MESOSCALE
SFC BOUNDARIES PRESENT...COULD NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE PCPN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN RAINSHOWERS WITH
ANY ISOLATED THUNDER FADING BY SUNSET.

DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF SUNDAY...LOOK FOR POPS TO RAMP BACK UP
ACROSS THE ILM CWA FROM SW TO NE...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OR LIKELY
ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS BY SUNRISE SUN. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
DYNAMICS FROM A SERIES OF S/W UPPER TROFS...PLENTY OF AVBL
MOISTURE WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...AND A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WEAK SHALLOW SFC BOUNDARIES IN THE
VICINITY...WILL ALL COMBINE TO AID IN THE MORE ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN. DID PLACE ISOLATED THUNDER TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SUN...MAINLY ACROSS THE AREAS THAT COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER AIR SUPPORT.

TWEAKED OVERNIGHT TEMPS/DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR 2 LOWER...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NE PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA WHERE THE BACKDOOR FRONT
MAKES ITS FURTHEST PUSH TO THE SOUTH.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A SUBTLE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS FINALLY MAKING ITS
MOVE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SERVE...ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT...TO KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST BASICALLY THE ENTIRE TIME. ON TOP OF THIS THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW INDICATIONS OF ATLANTIC STREAMERS THAT TYPICALLY PRECEDE A
STRONGLY FORCED EVENT...LIKE ONE WE WILL BE SEEING LATER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...MOVING ONSHORE LATE. I DO HAVE A POP MINIMUM AROUND
ZERO UTC...WITH A SLOW INCREASING TREND THEREAFTER. WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS DIURNAL RANGES CONTINUE TO BE
LIMITED BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY
APPEARS THE MORE OPTIMUM SET-UP FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH MORE
ROBUST KINEMATIC FIELDS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL HEATING JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY SUNDAY MAY IMPEDE
CONVECTION INITIATION/GROWTH. SUNDAY MEANWHILE OFFERS THE HIGHER
RAIN AMOUNTS AS COLUMN MOISTURE SURGES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF
THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS SURGE TO 1.8". SEVERAL MCV
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SWEPT NE IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT IR ANIMATIONS
SHOW COLD TOPS INDEED FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WPC QPF DEPICTIONS SHOW .75-1 INCH BASIN AVERAGES SUNDAY...AND
WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE GREATER
AMOUNTS. MONDAY LESS BASIN QPF BUT MORE POWERFUL STORMS IN THE
CARDS WITH MAXIMUMS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AIDING INSOLATION AND CELL POPS. SPC PAINTS SLIGHT RISK FOR BOTH
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BALMY PERIOD OVERALL AND BEST GUESS ON
FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW SLATED AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE LOOKING UPPER PATTERN
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
COLUMN DRY AND LEAD TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS LOCALLY. LOW LEVELS WILL
BE DRY AS WELL THROUGH SOME TIME WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOON THEREAFTER THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND
SOME MOISTENING RETURN FLOW ENSUES. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS
CALLING FOR RAIN AS SOON AS THURSDAY BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW STILL FEEL THAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS THE
BETTER DAY TO INTRODUCE SOME RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THOUGH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIE TO
OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY SOME LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY PAIRED WITH MID
LEVEL VORT APPROACHING TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS INTERMITTENT
LOW CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
LATE OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS...AS WELL AS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AS
SEEN FROM LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING ANY TAF SITES. INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH LOW CIGS AND
AREAS OF FOG. WILL NOT RULE OUT MEANDERING LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS IN THE MORNING TO BECOME
EAST-SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MOVE THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...BASED ON THE LATEST EVENTHOUGH ITS 18Z
MODEL RUNS...HAVE INCHED WINDS A KNOT OR 3 HIER LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKDOOR FRONTS POSITION AND ENOUGH
TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG AS RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE NE
STATES SFC HIGH. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4
FOOTERS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. DOMINANT
PERIODS WILL RUN 8 TO 9 SECONDS IN RESPONSE TO THE 2 TO 3 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL. HAVE REDUCED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
LATEST 88D TRENDS. SHOULD SEE POPS INCREASE BACK UPWARDS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN SUN HRS.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SHAPE UP SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS A
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A POWERFUL SYSTEM TO THE WEST
DEVELOPS AND NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE IN BRIEFLY VERY LATE AS A BACK
DOOR FRONT MAKES A QUICK RUN TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN
AN EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THE SAME
FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS TURNING NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND TEN KNOTS WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RANGE...10 TO 15 KNOTS DEVELOPING NORTHERN LATE. ZONES SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY MARINE REGIME
ON TAP THIS PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND WORSENS
LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVE GROWTH HOWEVER MAY BE LIMITED SINCE
SE-S WIND FLOW HAS LIMITED STAYING TIME BEFORE WINDS GO SW EARLY
ON MONDAY. HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FEET SUNDAY FOR NOW WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SET TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...OFFSHORE/NORTHWESTERLY POST COLD FRONTAL
FLOW REGIME ON TUESDAY WILL GROW LIGHTER LATE IN THE DAY AND AT
NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT GRADIENT WHEREIN WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
AND VEER IN DIRECTION FOR AN EXTENDED TIME UNTIL FINALLY SETTLING
ON SOUTHERLY BY WED EVE. SUCH LIGHT WINDS IN THE ABSENCE OF SWELL
ENERGY OUGHT TO BE GOOD FOR MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A ONE CATEGORY
RISE IN WINDS AND A WAVES FORECAST RISING TO JUST THE 2 TO 3 FT
RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 182346
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
746 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...THE DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION SHOULD
FADE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...WITH A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE ILM CWA AND LEFTOVER SHALLOW MESOSCALE
SFC BOUNDARIES PRESENT...COULD NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE PCPN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN RAINSHOWERS WITH
ANY ISOLATED THUNDER FADING BY SUNSET.

DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF SUNDAY...LOOK FOR POPS TO RAMP BACK UP
ACROSS THE ILM CWA FROM SW TO NE...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OR LIKELY
ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS BY SUNRISE SUN. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
DYNAMICS FROM A SERIES OF S/W UPPER TROFS...PLENTY OF AVBL
MOISTURE WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...AND A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WEAK SHALLOW SFC BOUNDARIES IN THE
VICINITY...WILL ALL COMBINE TO AID IN THE MORE ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN. DID PLACE ISOLATED THUNDER TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SUN...MAINLY ACROSS THE AREAS THAT COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER AIR SUPPORT.

TWEAKED OVERNIGHT TEMPS/DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR 2 LOWER...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NE PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA WHERE THE BACKDOOR FRONT
MAKES ITS FURTHEST PUSH TO THE SOUTH.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A SUBTLE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS FINALLY MAKING ITS
MOVE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SERVE...ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT...TO KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST BASICALLY THE ENTIRE TIME. ON TOP OF THIS THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW INDICATIONS OF ATLANTIC STREAMERS THAT TYPICALLY PRECEDE A
STRONGLY FORCED EVENT...LIKE ONE WE WILL BE SEEING LATER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...MOVING ONSHORE LATE. I DO HAVE A POP MINIMUM AROUND
ZERO UTC...WITH A SLOW INCREASING TREND THEREAFTER. WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS DIURNAL RANGES CONTINUE TO BE
LIMITED BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY
APPEARS THE MORE OPTIMUM SET-UP FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH MORE
ROBUST KINEMATIC FIELDS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL HEATING JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY SUNDAY MAY IMPEDE
CONVECTION INITIATION/GROWTH. SUNDAY MEANWHILE OFFERS THE HIGHER
RAIN AMOUNTS AS COLUMN MOISTURE SURGES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF
THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS SURGE TO 1.8". SEVERAL MCV
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SWEPT NE IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT IR ANIMATIONS
SHOW COLD TOPS INDEED FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WPC QPF DEPICTIONS SHOW .75-1 INCH BASIN AVERAGES SUNDAY...AND
WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE GREATER
AMOUNTS. MONDAY LESS BASIN QPF BUT MORE POWERFUL STORMS IN THE
CARDS WITH MAXIMUMS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AIDING INSOLATION AND CELL POPS. SPC PAINTS SLIGHT RISK FOR BOTH
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BALMY PERIOD OVERALL AND BEST GUESS ON
FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW SLATED AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE LOOKING UPPER PATTERN
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
COLUMN DRY AND LEAD TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS LOCALLY. LOW LEVELS WILL
BE DRY AS WELL THROUGH SOME TIME WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOON THEREAFTER THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND
SOME MOISTENING RETURN FLOW ENSUES. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS
CALLING FOR RAIN AS SOON AS THURSDAY BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW STILL FEEL THAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS THE
BETTER DAY TO INTRODUCE SOME RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THOUGH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIE TO
OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY SOME LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY PAIRED WITH MID
LEVEL VORT APPROACHING TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TRICKY 24 HOUR FORECAST AS ONE SYSTEM IS EXITING AND
ANOTHER WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR DIMINISHING
RAIN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME ISOLATED STUFF
THROUGH 21Z. CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...BUT WILL BOUNCE
AROUND QUITE A BIT. TONIGHT...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL MORNING AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS ONE IS RATHER LARGE WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY DAYBREAK SHOWERS WILL
BECOME NUMEROUS...SPREADING NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY COME DOWN TO A MILE IN THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUE. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATE WED
INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...BASED ON THE LATEST EVENTHOUGH ITS 18Z
MODEL RUNS...HAVE INCHED WINDS A KNOT OR 3 HIER LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKDOOR FRONTS POSITION AND ENOUGH
TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG AS RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE NE
STATES SFC HIGH. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4
FOOTERS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. DOMINANT
PERIODS WILL RUN 8 TO 9 SECONDS IN RESPONSE TO THE 2 TO 3 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL. HAVE REDUCED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
LATEST 88D TRENDS. SHOULD SEE POPS INCREASE BACK UPWARDS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN SUN HRS.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SHAPE UP SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS A
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A POWERFUL SYSTEM TO THE WEST
DEVELOPS AND NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE IN BRIEFLY VERY LATE AS A BACK
DOOR FRONT MAKES A QUICK RUN TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN
AN EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THE SAME
FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS TURNING NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND TEN KNOTS WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RANGE...10 TO 15 KNOTS DEVELOPING NORTHERN LATE. ZONES SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY MARINE REGIME
ON TAP THIS PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND WORSENS
LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVE GROWTH HOWEVER MAY BE LIMITED SINCE
SE-S WIND FLOW HAS LIMITED STAYING TIME BEFORE WINDS GO SW EARLY
ON MONDAY. HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FEET SUNDAY FOR NOW WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SET TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...OFFSHORE/NORTHWESTERLY POST COLD FRONTAL
FLOW REGIME ON TUESDAY WILL GROW LIGHTER LATE IN THE DAY AND AT
NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT GRADIENT WHEREIN WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
AND VEER IN DIRECTION FOR AN EXTENDED TIME UNTIL FINALLY SETTLING
ON SOUTHERLY BY WED EVE. SUCH LIGHT WINDS IN THE ABSENCE OF SWELL
ENERGY OUGHT TO BE GOOD FOR MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A ONE CATEGORY
RISE IN WINDS AND A WAVES FORECAST RISING TO JUST THE 2 TO 3 FT
RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK/DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 182346
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
746 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...THE DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION SHOULD
FADE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...WITH A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE ILM CWA AND LEFTOVER SHALLOW MESOSCALE
SFC BOUNDARIES PRESENT...COULD NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE PCPN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN RAINSHOWERS WITH
ANY ISOLATED THUNDER FADING BY SUNSET.

DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF SUNDAY...LOOK FOR POPS TO RAMP BACK UP
ACROSS THE ILM CWA FROM SW TO NE...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OR LIKELY
ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS BY SUNRISE SUN. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
DYNAMICS FROM A SERIES OF S/W UPPER TROFS...PLENTY OF AVBL
MOISTURE WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...AND A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WEAK SHALLOW SFC BOUNDARIES IN THE
VICINITY...WILL ALL COMBINE TO AID IN THE MORE ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN. DID PLACE ISOLATED THUNDER TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SUN...MAINLY ACROSS THE AREAS THAT COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER AIR SUPPORT.

TWEAKED OVERNIGHT TEMPS/DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR 2 LOWER...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NE PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA WHERE THE BACKDOOR FRONT
MAKES ITS FURTHEST PUSH TO THE SOUTH.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A SUBTLE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS FINALLY MAKING ITS
MOVE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SERVE...ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT...TO KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST BASICALLY THE ENTIRE TIME. ON TOP OF THIS THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW INDICATIONS OF ATLANTIC STREAMERS THAT TYPICALLY PRECEDE A
STRONGLY FORCED EVENT...LIKE ONE WE WILL BE SEEING LATER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...MOVING ONSHORE LATE. I DO HAVE A POP MINIMUM AROUND
ZERO UTC...WITH A SLOW INCREASING TREND THEREAFTER. WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS DIURNAL RANGES CONTINUE TO BE
LIMITED BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY
APPEARS THE MORE OPTIMUM SET-UP FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH MORE
ROBUST KINEMATIC FIELDS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL HEATING JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY SUNDAY MAY IMPEDE
CONVECTION INITIATION/GROWTH. SUNDAY MEANWHILE OFFERS THE HIGHER
RAIN AMOUNTS AS COLUMN MOISTURE SURGES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF
THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS SURGE TO 1.8". SEVERAL MCV
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SWEPT NE IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT IR ANIMATIONS
SHOW COLD TOPS INDEED FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WPC QPF DEPICTIONS SHOW .75-1 INCH BASIN AVERAGES SUNDAY...AND
WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE GREATER
AMOUNTS. MONDAY LESS BASIN QPF BUT MORE POWERFUL STORMS IN THE
CARDS WITH MAXIMUMS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AIDING INSOLATION AND CELL POPS. SPC PAINTS SLIGHT RISK FOR BOTH
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BALMY PERIOD OVERALL AND BEST GUESS ON
FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW SLATED AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE LOOKING UPPER PATTERN
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
COLUMN DRY AND LEAD TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS LOCALLY. LOW LEVELS WILL
BE DRY AS WELL THROUGH SOME TIME WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOON THEREAFTER THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND
SOME MOISTENING RETURN FLOW ENSUES. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS
CALLING FOR RAIN AS SOON AS THURSDAY BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW STILL FEEL THAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS THE
BETTER DAY TO INTRODUCE SOME RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THOUGH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIE TO
OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY SOME LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY PAIRED WITH MID
LEVEL VORT APPROACHING TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TRICKY 24 HOUR FORECAST AS ONE SYSTEM IS EXITING AND
ANOTHER WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR DIMINISHING
RAIN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME ISOLATED STUFF
THROUGH 21Z. CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...BUT WILL BOUNCE
AROUND QUITE A BIT. TONIGHT...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL MORNING AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS ONE IS RATHER LARGE WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY DAYBREAK SHOWERS WILL
BECOME NUMEROUS...SPREADING NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY COME DOWN TO A MILE IN THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUE. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATE WED
INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...BASED ON THE LATEST EVENTHOUGH ITS 18Z
MODEL RUNS...HAVE INCHED WINDS A KNOT OR 3 HIER LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKDOOR FRONTS POSITION AND ENOUGH
TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG AS RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE NE
STATES SFC HIGH. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4
FOOTERS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. DOMINANT
PERIODS WILL RUN 8 TO 9 SECONDS IN RESPONSE TO THE 2 TO 3 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL. HAVE REDUCED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
LATEST 88D TRENDS. SHOULD SEE POPS INCREASE BACK UPWARDS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN SUN HRS.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SHAPE UP SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS A
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A POWERFUL SYSTEM TO THE WEST
DEVELOPS AND NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE IN BRIEFLY VERY LATE AS A BACK
DOOR FRONT MAKES A QUICK RUN TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN
AN EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THE SAME
FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS TURNING NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND TEN KNOTS WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RANGE...10 TO 15 KNOTS DEVELOPING NORTHERN LATE. ZONES SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY MARINE REGIME
ON TAP THIS PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND WORSENS
LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVE GROWTH HOWEVER MAY BE LIMITED SINCE
SE-S WIND FLOW HAS LIMITED STAYING TIME BEFORE WINDS GO SW EARLY
ON MONDAY. HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FEET SUNDAY FOR NOW WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SET TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...OFFSHORE/NORTHWESTERLY POST COLD FRONTAL
FLOW REGIME ON TUESDAY WILL GROW LIGHTER LATE IN THE DAY AND AT
NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT GRADIENT WHEREIN WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
AND VEER IN DIRECTION FOR AN EXTENDED TIME UNTIL FINALLY SETTLING
ON SOUTHERLY BY WED EVE. SUCH LIGHT WINDS IN THE ABSENCE OF SWELL
ENERGY OUGHT TO BE GOOD FOR MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A ONE CATEGORY
RISE IN WINDS AND A WAVES FORECAST RISING TO JUST THE 2 TO 3 FT
RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK/DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 182346
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
746 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...THE DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION SHOULD
FADE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...WITH A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE ILM CWA AND LEFTOVER SHALLOW MESOSCALE
SFC BOUNDARIES PRESENT...COULD NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE PCPN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN RAINSHOWERS WITH
ANY ISOLATED THUNDER FADING BY SUNSET.

DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF SUNDAY...LOOK FOR POPS TO RAMP BACK UP
ACROSS THE ILM CWA FROM SW TO NE...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OR LIKELY
ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS BY SUNRISE SUN. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
DYNAMICS FROM A SERIES OF S/W UPPER TROFS...PLENTY OF AVBL
MOISTURE WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...AND A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WEAK SHALLOW SFC BOUNDARIES IN THE
VICINITY...WILL ALL COMBINE TO AID IN THE MORE ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN. DID PLACE ISOLATED THUNDER TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SUN...MAINLY ACROSS THE AREAS THAT COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER AIR SUPPORT.

TWEAKED OVERNIGHT TEMPS/DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR 2 LOWER...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NE PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA WHERE THE BACKDOOR FRONT
MAKES ITS FURTHEST PUSH TO THE SOUTH.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A SUBTLE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS FINALLY MAKING ITS
MOVE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SERVE...ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT...TO KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST BASICALLY THE ENTIRE TIME. ON TOP OF THIS THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW INDICATIONS OF ATLANTIC STREAMERS THAT TYPICALLY PRECEDE A
STRONGLY FORCED EVENT...LIKE ONE WE WILL BE SEEING LATER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...MOVING ONSHORE LATE. I DO HAVE A POP MINIMUM AROUND
ZERO UTC...WITH A SLOW INCREASING TREND THEREAFTER. WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS DIURNAL RANGES CONTINUE TO BE
LIMITED BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY
APPEARS THE MORE OPTIMUM SET-UP FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH MORE
ROBUST KINEMATIC FIELDS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL HEATING JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY SUNDAY MAY IMPEDE
CONVECTION INITIATION/GROWTH. SUNDAY MEANWHILE OFFERS THE HIGHER
RAIN AMOUNTS AS COLUMN MOISTURE SURGES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF
THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS SURGE TO 1.8". SEVERAL MCV
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SWEPT NE IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT IR ANIMATIONS
SHOW COLD TOPS INDEED FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WPC QPF DEPICTIONS SHOW .75-1 INCH BASIN AVERAGES SUNDAY...AND
WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE GREATER
AMOUNTS. MONDAY LESS BASIN QPF BUT MORE POWERFUL STORMS IN THE
CARDS WITH MAXIMUMS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AIDING INSOLATION AND CELL POPS. SPC PAINTS SLIGHT RISK FOR BOTH
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BALMY PERIOD OVERALL AND BEST GUESS ON
FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW SLATED AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE LOOKING UPPER PATTERN
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
COLUMN DRY AND LEAD TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS LOCALLY. LOW LEVELS WILL
BE DRY AS WELL THROUGH SOME TIME WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOON THEREAFTER THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND
SOME MOISTENING RETURN FLOW ENSUES. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS
CALLING FOR RAIN AS SOON AS THURSDAY BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW STILL FEEL THAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS THE
BETTER DAY TO INTRODUCE SOME RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THOUGH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIE TO
OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY SOME LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY PAIRED WITH MID
LEVEL VORT APPROACHING TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TRICKY 24 HOUR FORECAST AS ONE SYSTEM IS EXITING AND
ANOTHER WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR DIMINISHING
RAIN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME ISOLATED STUFF
THROUGH 21Z. CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...BUT WILL BOUNCE
AROUND QUITE A BIT. TONIGHT...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL MORNING AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS ONE IS RATHER LARGE WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY DAYBREAK SHOWERS WILL
BECOME NUMEROUS...SPREADING NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY COME DOWN TO A MILE IN THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUE. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATE WED
INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...BASED ON THE LATEST EVENTHOUGH ITS 18Z
MODEL RUNS...HAVE INCHED WINDS A KNOT OR 3 HIER LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKDOOR FRONTS POSITION AND ENOUGH
TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG AS RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE NE
STATES SFC HIGH. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4
FOOTERS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. DOMINANT
PERIODS WILL RUN 8 TO 9 SECONDS IN RESPONSE TO THE 2 TO 3 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL. HAVE REDUCED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
LATEST 88D TRENDS. SHOULD SEE POPS INCREASE BACK UPWARDS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN SUN HRS.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SHAPE UP SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS A
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A POWERFUL SYSTEM TO THE WEST
DEVELOPS AND NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE IN BRIEFLY VERY LATE AS A BACK
DOOR FRONT MAKES A QUICK RUN TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN
AN EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THE SAME
FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS TURNING NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND TEN KNOTS WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RANGE...10 TO 15 KNOTS DEVELOPING NORTHERN LATE. ZONES SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY MARINE REGIME
ON TAP THIS PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND WORSENS
LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVE GROWTH HOWEVER MAY BE LIMITED SINCE
SE-S WIND FLOW HAS LIMITED STAYING TIME BEFORE WINDS GO SW EARLY
ON MONDAY. HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FEET SUNDAY FOR NOW WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SET TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...OFFSHORE/NORTHWESTERLY POST COLD FRONTAL
FLOW REGIME ON TUESDAY WILL GROW LIGHTER LATE IN THE DAY AND AT
NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT GRADIENT WHEREIN WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
AND VEER IN DIRECTION FOR AN EXTENDED TIME UNTIL FINALLY SETTLING
ON SOUTHERLY BY WED EVE. SUCH LIGHT WINDS IN THE ABSENCE OF SWELL
ENERGY OUGHT TO BE GOOD FOR MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A ONE CATEGORY
RISE IN WINDS AND A WAVES FORECAST RISING TO JUST THE 2 TO 3 FT
RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK/DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 181916
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A SUBTLE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS FINALLY MAKING ITS
MOVE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SERVE...ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT...TO KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST BASICALLY THE ENTIRE TIME. ON TOP OF THIS THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW INDICATIONS OF ATLANTIC STREAMERS THAT TYPICALLY PRECEDE A
STRONGLY FORCED EVENT...LIKE ONE WE WILL BE SEEING LATER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...MOVING ONSHORE LATE. I DO HAVE A POP MINIMUM AROUND
ZERO UTC...WITH A SLOW INCREASING TREND THEREAFTER. WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS DIURNAL RANGES CONTINUE TO BE
LIMITED BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY
APPEARS THE MORE OPTIMUM SET-UP FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH MORE
ROBUST KINEMATIC FIELDS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL HEATING JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY SUNDAY MAY IMPEDE
CONVECTION INITIATION/GROWTH. SUNDAY MEANWHILE OFFERS THE HIGHER
RAIN AMOUNTS AS COLUMN MOISTURE SURGES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF
THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS SURGE TO 1.8". SEVERAL MCV
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SWEPT NE IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT IR ANIMATIONS
SHOW COLD TOPS INDEED FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WPC QPF DEPICTIONS SHOW .75-1 INCH BASIN AVERAGES SUNDAY...AND
WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE GREATER
AMOUNTS. MONDAY LESS BASIN QPF BUT MORE POWERFUL STORMS IN THE
CARDS WITH MAXIMUMS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AIDING INSOLATION AND CELL POPS. SPC PAINTS SLIGHT RISK FOR BOTH
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BALMY PERIOD OVERALL AND BEST GUESS ON
FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW SLATED AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE LOOKING UPPER PATTERN
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
COLUMN DRY AND LEAD TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS LOCALLY. LOW LEVELS WILL
BE DRY AS WELL THROUGH SOME TIME WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOON THEREAFTER THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND
SOME MOISTENING RETURN FLOW ENSUES. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS
CALLING FOR RAIN AS SOON AS THURSDAY BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW STILL FEEL THAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS THE
BETTER DAY TO INTRODUCE SOME RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THOUGH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIE TO
OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY SOME LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY PAIRED WITH MID
LEVEL VORT APPROACHING TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TRICKY 24 HOUR FORECAST AS ONE SYSTEM IS EXITING AND
ANOTHER WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR DIMINISHING
RAIN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME ISOLATED STUFF
THROUGH 21Z. CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...BUT WILL BOUNCE
AROUND QUITE A BIT. TONIGHT...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL MORNING AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS ONE IS RATHER LARGE WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY DAYBREAK SHOWERS WILL
BECOME NUMEROUS...SPREADING NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY COME DOWN TO A MILE IN THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATE WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SHAPE UP SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS A
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A POWERFUL SYSTEM TO THE WEST
DEVELOPS AND NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE IN BRIEFLY VERY LATE AS A BACK
DOOR FRONT MAKES A QUICK RUN TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN
AN EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THE SAME
FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS TURNING NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND TEN KNOTS WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RANGE...10 TO 15 KNOTS DEVELOPING NORTHERN LATE. ZONES SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY MARINE REGIME
ON TAP THIS PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND WORSENS
LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVE GROWTH HOWEVER MAY BE LIMITED SINCE
SE-S WIND FLOW HAS LIMITED STAYING TIME BEFORE WINDS GO SW EARLY
ON MONDAY. HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FEET SUNDAY FOR NOW WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SET TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...OFFSHORE/NORTHWESTERLY POST COLD FRONTAL
FLOW REGIME ON TUESDAY WILL GROW LIGHTER LATE IN THE DAY AND AT
NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT GRADIENT WHEREIN WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
AND VEER IN DIRECTION FOR AN EXTENDED TIME UNTIL FINALLY SETTLING
ON SOUTHERLY BY WED EVE. SUCH LIGHT WINDS IN THE ABSENCE OF SWELL
ENERGY OUGHT TO BE GOOD FOR MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A ONE CATEGORY
RISE IN WINDS AND A WAVES FORECAST RISING TO JUST THE 2 TO 3 FT
RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 181916
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A SUBTLE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS FINALLY MAKING ITS
MOVE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SERVE...ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT...TO KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST BASICALLY THE ENTIRE TIME. ON TOP OF THIS THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW INDICATIONS OF ATLANTIC STREAMERS THAT TYPICALLY PRECEDE A
STRONGLY FORCED EVENT...LIKE ONE WE WILL BE SEEING LATER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...MOVING ONSHORE LATE. I DO HAVE A POP MINIMUM AROUND
ZERO UTC...WITH A SLOW INCREASING TREND THEREAFTER. WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS DIURNAL RANGES CONTINUE TO BE
LIMITED BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY
APPEARS THE MORE OPTIMUM SET-UP FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH MORE
ROBUST KINEMATIC FIELDS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL HEATING JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY SUNDAY MAY IMPEDE
CONVECTION INITIATION/GROWTH. SUNDAY MEANWHILE OFFERS THE HIGHER
RAIN AMOUNTS AS COLUMN MOISTURE SURGES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF
THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS SURGE TO 1.8". SEVERAL MCV
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SWEPT NE IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT IR ANIMATIONS
SHOW COLD TOPS INDEED FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WPC QPF DEPICTIONS SHOW .75-1 INCH BASIN AVERAGES SUNDAY...AND
WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE GREATER
AMOUNTS. MONDAY LESS BASIN QPF BUT MORE POWERFUL STORMS IN THE
CARDS WITH MAXIMUMS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AIDING INSOLATION AND CELL POPS. SPC PAINTS SLIGHT RISK FOR BOTH
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BALMY PERIOD OVERALL AND BEST GUESS ON
FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW SLATED AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE LOOKING UPPER PATTERN
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
COLUMN DRY AND LEAD TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS LOCALLY. LOW LEVELS WILL
BE DRY AS WELL THROUGH SOME TIME WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOON THEREAFTER THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND
SOME MOISTENING RETURN FLOW ENSUES. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS
CALLING FOR RAIN AS SOON AS THURSDAY BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW STILL FEEL THAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS THE
BETTER DAY TO INTRODUCE SOME RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THOUGH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIE TO
OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY SOME LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY PAIRED WITH MID
LEVEL VORT APPROACHING TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TRICKY 24 HOUR FORECAST AS ONE SYSTEM IS EXITING AND
ANOTHER WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR DIMINISHING
RAIN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME ISOLATED STUFF
THROUGH 21Z. CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...BUT WILL BOUNCE
AROUND QUITE A BIT. TONIGHT...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL MORNING AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS ONE IS RATHER LARGE WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY DAYBREAK SHOWERS WILL
BECOME NUMEROUS...SPREADING NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY COME DOWN TO A MILE IN THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATE WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SHAPE UP SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS A
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A POWERFUL SYSTEM TO THE WEST
DEVELOPS AND NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE IN BRIEFLY VERY LATE AS A BACK
DOOR FRONT MAKES A QUICK RUN TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN
AN EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THE SAME
FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS TURNING NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND TEN KNOTS WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RANGE...10 TO 15 KNOTS DEVELOPING NORTHERN LATE. ZONES SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY MARINE REGIME
ON TAP THIS PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND WORSENS
LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVE GROWTH HOWEVER MAY BE LIMITED SINCE
SE-S WIND FLOW HAS LIMITED STAYING TIME BEFORE WINDS GO SW EARLY
ON MONDAY. HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FEET SUNDAY FOR NOW WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SET TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...OFFSHORE/NORTHWESTERLY POST COLD FRONTAL
FLOW REGIME ON TUESDAY WILL GROW LIGHTER LATE IN THE DAY AND AT
NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT GRADIENT WHEREIN WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
AND VEER IN DIRECTION FOR AN EXTENDED TIME UNTIL FINALLY SETTLING
ON SOUTHERLY BY WED EVE. SUCH LIGHT WINDS IN THE ABSENCE OF SWELL
ENERGY OUGHT TO BE GOOD FOR MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A ONE CATEGORY
RISE IN WINDS AND A WAVES FORECAST RISING TO JUST THE 2 TO 3 FT
RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 181916
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A SUBTLE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS FINALLY MAKING ITS
MOVE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SERVE...ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT...TO KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST BASICALLY THE ENTIRE TIME. ON TOP OF THIS THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW INDICATIONS OF ATLANTIC STREAMERS THAT TYPICALLY PRECEDE A
STRONGLY FORCED EVENT...LIKE ONE WE WILL BE SEEING LATER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...MOVING ONSHORE LATE. I DO HAVE A POP MINIMUM AROUND
ZERO UTC...WITH A SLOW INCREASING TREND THEREAFTER. WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS DIURNAL RANGES CONTINUE TO BE
LIMITED BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY
APPEARS THE MORE OPTIMUM SET-UP FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH MORE
ROBUST KINEMATIC FIELDS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL HEATING JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY SUNDAY MAY IMPEDE
CONVECTION INITIATION/GROWTH. SUNDAY MEANWHILE OFFERS THE HIGHER
RAIN AMOUNTS AS COLUMN MOISTURE SURGES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF
THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS SURGE TO 1.8". SEVERAL MCV
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SWEPT NE IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT MAY SUSTAIN
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT IR ANIMATIONS
SHOW COLD TOPS INDEED FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WPC QPF DEPICTIONS SHOW .75-1 INCH BASIN AVERAGES SUNDAY...AND
WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE GREATER
AMOUNTS. MONDAY LESS BASIN QPF BUT MORE POWERFUL STORMS IN THE
CARDS WITH MAXIMUMS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AIDING INSOLATION AND CELL POPS. SPC PAINTS SLIGHT RISK FOR BOTH
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BALMY PERIOD OVERALL AND BEST GUESS ON
FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW SLATED AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE LOOKING UPPER PATTERN
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
COLUMN DRY AND LEAD TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS LOCALLY. LOW LEVELS WILL
BE DRY AS WELL THROUGH SOME TIME WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOON THEREAFTER THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND
SOME MOISTENING RETURN FLOW ENSUES. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS
CALLING FOR RAIN AS SOON AS THURSDAY BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW STILL FEEL THAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS THE
BETTER DAY TO INTRODUCE SOME RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THOUGH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIE TO
OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY SOME LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY PAIRED WITH MID
LEVEL VORT APPROACHING TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TRICKY 24 HOUR FORECAST AS ONE SYSTEM IS EXITING AND
ANOTHER WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR DIMINISHING
RAIN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME ISOLATED STUFF
THROUGH 21Z. CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...BUT WILL BOUNCE
AROUND QUITE A BIT. TONIGHT...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL MORNING AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS ONE IS RATHER LARGE WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY DAYBREAK SHOWERS WILL
BECOME NUMEROUS...SPREADING NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY COME DOWN TO A MILE IN THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATE WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SHAPE UP SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS A
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A POWERFUL SYSTEM TO THE WEST
DEVELOPS AND NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE IN BRIEFLY VERY LATE AS A BACK
DOOR FRONT MAKES A QUICK RUN TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN
AN EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THE SAME
FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS TURNING NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND TEN KNOTS WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RANGE...10 TO 15 KNOTS DEVELOPING NORTHERN LATE. ZONES SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY MARINE REGIME
ON TAP THIS PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND WORSENS
LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVE GROWTH HOWEVER MAY BE LIMITED SINCE
SE-S WIND FLOW HAS LIMITED STAYING TIME BEFORE WINDS GO SW EARLY
ON MONDAY. HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FEET SUNDAY FOR NOW WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SET TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...OFFSHORE/NORTHWESTERLY POST COLD FRONTAL
FLOW REGIME ON TUESDAY WILL GROW LIGHTER LATE IN THE DAY AND AT
NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT GRADIENT WHEREIN WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
AND VEER IN DIRECTION FOR AN EXTENDED TIME UNTIL FINALLY SETTLING
ON SOUTHERLY BY WED EVE. SUCH LIGHT WINDS IN THE ABSENCE OF SWELL
ENERGY OUGHT TO BE GOOD FOR MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A ONE CATEGORY
RISE IN WINDS AND A WAVES FORECAST RISING TO JUST THE 2 TO 3 FT
RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 181712
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
112 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...A VERY SUBTLE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS FINALLY MAKING
ITS MOVE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SERVE...ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT...TO KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST BASICALLY THE ENTIRE TIME. ON TOP OF THIS THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW INDICATIONS OF ATLANTIC STREAMERS THAT TYPICALLY PRECEDE A
STRONGLY FORCED EVENT...LIKE ONE WE WILL BE SEEING LATER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...MOVING ONSHORE LATE. I DO HAVE A POP MINIMUM AROUND
ZERO UTC...WITH A SLOW INCREASING TREND THEREAFTER. WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS DIURNAL RANGES CONTINUE TO BE
LIMITED BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD FOR
THE SHORT TERM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BENEATH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VLY. A
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE
CAROLINAS...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP SW FLOW WILL INTENSIFY
LATE SUNDAY...WITH 850MB V-WIND COMPONENT REACHING +3 SD`S LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN ENVIRONMENT OF POTENTIALLY RECORD-FOR-
THE-DAY PRECIPITABLE WATER AS COMPARED AGAINST THE SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. ALTHOUGH A NICE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ARC ACROSS THE
MEXICO/US BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL NOT AID IN ANY LIFT SO
UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK INVOF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 11-12
KFT...AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH PROVIDES LONG PARCEL RESIDENCE
TIMES WITHIN THE SATURATED COLUMN...SUGGEST PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS
PRETTY LIMITED SO THUNDER WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 1" OF QPF OR MORE LOOKS VERY LIKELY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED
DEEP SW FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL STILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL-TO-ABOVE FOR MID-APRIL.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH FEWER CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSOLATION TO WARM THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE 12-
14C...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
SUNDAY...WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP ONLY INTO THE UPR 60S...LOW 60S
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING...AND A PRIMARILY QUIET WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES
TUE-THU BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO FORCED-ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL
SIT AND SPIN ACROSS SE CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...SO WHILE COOLER
TEMPS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED...SEASONABLE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED. LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BOTH DUE TO INCREASED COLUMN MOISTURE...BUT ALSO
THANKS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW...DRIVEN BY A
PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE UPPER
LOW. TEMPS THU/FRI WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A RATHER TRICKY 24 HOUR FORECAST AS ONE SYSTEM IS
EXITING  AND ANOTHER WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
DIMINISHING RAIN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME ISOLATED
STUFF THROUGH 21Z. CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...BUT WILL
BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT. TONIGHT...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL
MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS ONE IS RATHER LARGE WITH
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY DAYBREAK SHOWERS
WILL BECOME NUMEROUS...SPREADING NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY COME DOWN TO A MILE IN THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATE WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SHAPE UP SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS A
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A POWERFUL SYSTEM TO THE WEST DEVELOPS
AND NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE IN BRIEFLY VERY LATE AS A BACK DOOR FRONT
MAKES A QUICK RUN TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY
WIND DIRECTION FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THE SAME FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA WATERS TURNING NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
MOSTLY AROUND TEN KNOTS WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGER RANGE...10 TO 15 KNOTS
DEVELOPING NORTHERN LATE. ZONES SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A 2-4 FOOT
RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A POSSIBLE SHORT SCA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THIS TIME...WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO S THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE WINDS VEER THEY WILL INCREASE AS
WELL...BECOMING 15-20 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THESE WINDS
WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-6 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC WATERS. A SHORT
DURATION SCA STILL LOOKS LIKELY AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH MONDAY TO THE SW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS...BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. SEAS MONDAY WILL BE 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE FALLING AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS...LIGHT NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND EVENTUALLY TURNING
TO THE SW LATE...BUT STILL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY...LEFTOVERS FROM THE MORE STRONGLY FORCED SEAS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 181712
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
112 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...A VERY SUBTLE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS FINALLY MAKING
ITS MOVE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SERVE...ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT...TO KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST BASICALLY THE ENTIRE TIME. ON TOP OF THIS THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW INDICATIONS OF ATLANTIC STREAMERS THAT TYPICALLY PRECEDE A
STRONGLY FORCED EVENT...LIKE ONE WE WILL BE SEEING LATER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...MOVING ONSHORE LATE. I DO HAVE A POP MINIMUM AROUND
ZERO UTC...WITH A SLOW INCREASING TREND THEREAFTER. WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS DIURNAL RANGES CONTINUE TO BE
LIMITED BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD FOR
THE SHORT TERM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BENEATH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VLY. A
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE
CAROLINAS...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP SW FLOW WILL INTENSIFY
LATE SUNDAY...WITH 850MB V-WIND COMPONENT REACHING +3 SD`S LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN ENVIRONMENT OF POTENTIALLY RECORD-FOR-
THE-DAY PRECIPITABLE WATER AS COMPARED AGAINST THE SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. ALTHOUGH A NICE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ARC ACROSS THE
MEXICO/US BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL NOT AID IN ANY LIFT SO
UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK INVOF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 11-12
KFT...AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH PROVIDES LONG PARCEL RESIDENCE
TIMES WITHIN THE SATURATED COLUMN...SUGGEST PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS
PRETTY LIMITED SO THUNDER WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 1" OF QPF OR MORE LOOKS VERY LIKELY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED
DEEP SW FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL STILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL-TO-ABOVE FOR MID-APRIL.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH FEWER CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSOLATION TO WARM THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE 12-
14C...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
SUNDAY...WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP ONLY INTO THE UPR 60S...LOW 60S
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING...AND A PRIMARILY QUIET WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES
TUE-THU BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO FORCED-ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL
SIT AND SPIN ACROSS SE CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...SO WHILE COOLER
TEMPS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED...SEASONABLE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED. LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BOTH DUE TO INCREASED COLUMN MOISTURE...BUT ALSO
THANKS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW...DRIVEN BY A
PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE UPPER
LOW. TEMPS THU/FRI WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A RATHER TRICKY 24 HOUR FORECAST AS ONE SYSTEM IS
EXITING  AND ANOTHER WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
DIMINISHING RAIN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME ISOLATED
STUFF THROUGH 21Z. CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...BUT WILL
BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT. TONIGHT...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL
MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS ONE IS RATHER LARGE WITH
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY DAYBREAK SHOWERS
WILL BECOME NUMEROUS...SPREADING NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY COME DOWN TO A MILE IN THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE. POSSIBLE SHOWERS RETURNING LATE WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SHAPE UP SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS A
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A POWERFUL SYSTEM TO THE WEST DEVELOPS
AND NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE IN BRIEFLY VERY LATE AS A BACK DOOR FRONT
MAKES A QUICK RUN TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY
WIND DIRECTION FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THE SAME FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA WATERS TURNING NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
MOSTLY AROUND TEN KNOTS WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGER RANGE...10 TO 15 KNOTS
DEVELOPING NORTHERN LATE. ZONES SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A 2-4 FOOT
RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A POSSIBLE SHORT SCA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THIS TIME...WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO S THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE WINDS VEER THEY WILL INCREASE AS
WELL...BECOMING 15-20 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THESE WINDS
WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-6 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC WATERS. A SHORT
DURATION SCA STILL LOOKS LIKELY AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH MONDAY TO THE SW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS...BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. SEAS MONDAY WILL BE 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE FALLING AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS...LIGHT NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND EVENTUALLY TURNING
TO THE SW LATE...BUT STILL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY...LEFTOVERS FROM THE MORE STRONGLY FORCED SEAS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 181414
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1014 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN STILL FALLING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FORECAST TREND IN GOOD SHAPE WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THIS ACTIVITY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A LULL THEN SOME MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. I DID
ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY TO INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN FOR
BEYOND 1800 UTC AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER LOW AND WITH
ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD POP
UP. TRIMMED BACK HIGHS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD FOR
THE SHORT TERM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BENEATH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VLY. A
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE
CAROLINAS...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP SW FLOW WILL INTENSIFY
LATE SUNDAY...WITH 850MB V-WIND COMPONENT REACHING +3 SD`S LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN ENVIRONMENT OF POTENTIALLY RECORD-FOR-
THE-DAY PRECIPITABLE WATER AS COMPARED AGAINST THE SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. ALTHOUGH A NICE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ARC ACROSS THE
MEXICO/US BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL NOT AID IN ANY LIFT SO
UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK INVOF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 11-12
KFT...AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH PROVIDES LONG PARCEL RESIDENCE
TIMES WITHIN THE SATURATED COLUMN...SUGGEST PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS
PRETTY LIMITED SO THUNDER WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 1" OF QPF OR MORE LOOKS VERY LIKELY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED
DEEP SW FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL STILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL-TO-ABOVE FOR MID-APRIL.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH FEWER CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSOLATION TO WARM THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE 12-
14C...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
SUNDAY...WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP ONLY INTO THE UPR 60S...LOW 60S
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING...AND A PRIMARILY QUIET WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES
TUE-THU BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO FORCED-ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL
SIT AND SPIN ACROSS SE CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...SO WHILE COOLER
TEMPS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED...SEASONABLE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED. LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BOTH DUE TO INCREASED COLUMN MOISTURE...BUT ALSO
THANKS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW...DRIVEN BY A
PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE UPPER
LOW. TEMPS THU/FRI WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A RATHER LARGE BATCH OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE.
LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT MVFR WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR PERIODS IN THE
HEAVIER PRECIP. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL EXIT THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT MVFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN FOR SOME TIME AFTER THAT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH WILL GIVE US LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...RATHER QUIET ON THE COASTAL WATERS FROM A
WIND AND WAVE STANDPOINT WITH A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AND
SEAS OF 2-4 FEET. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A VERY DISORGANIZED SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED A COUPLE DAYS AGO ALONG AN
OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
MORE IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING WHICH PROMISES TO BRING GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE LOOK FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A REDUCTION IN RAIN COVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. BY
LATE TONIGHT THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST COULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES IN AROUND
DAYBREAK.

VARIABLE WINDS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS AS HIGH AS
4 FEET IN THE 10-20 MILE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR CAPE FEAR WILL SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 2-3 FEET SEAS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS. VERY
LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA...WITH INCREASING NE WINDS EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A POSSIBLE SHORT SCA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THIS TIME...WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO S THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE WINDS VEER THEY WILL INCREASE AS
WELL...BECOMING 15-20 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THESE WINDS
WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-6 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC WATERS. A SHORT
DURATION SCA STILL LOOKS LIKELY AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH MONDAY TO THE SW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS...BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. SEAS MONDAY WILL BE 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE FALLING AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS...LIGHT NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND EVENTUALLY TURNING
TO THE SW LATE...BUT STILL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY...LEFTOVERS FROM THE MORE STRONGLY FORCED SEAS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 181046
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
646 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SATURDAY...THE ONLY TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING ARE TO INCREASE POPS TO 80-100 PERCENT ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95 FOR THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE COAST. LATEST HRRR AND HRRRX MODELS SHOW
THIS ACTIVITY MOVING OFF THE COAST BY 15Z-16Z (11 AM TO NOON) WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING FARTHER INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

A VERY NEBULOUS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED A COUPLE DAYS AGO ALONG AN
OLD STALLED FRONT NEAR SAVANNAH. THIS LOW IS NOW DISSIPATING WELL
EAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DUE TO LACK OF BAROCLINICITY.
THIS WILL LEAVE VIRTUALLY NO SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE
TODAY...LEAVING WINDS AT THE MERCY OF LOCAL EFFECTS LIKE THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION PLUS ANY SHOWER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE MARKEDLY IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK.
STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL CUT THROUGH THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHS SHOULD STILL APPROACH 80 INLAND...WITH MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT THE COAST...TEMPS NEAR 80 SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND WITH COVERAGE PROBABLY AROUND 30 PERCENT.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS VERY
LATE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD FOR
THE SHORT TERM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BENEATH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VLY. A
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE
CAROLINAS...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP SW FLOW WILL INTENSIFY
LATE SUNDAY...WITH 850MB V-WIND COMPONENT REACHING +3 SD`S LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN ENVIRONMENT OF POTENTIALLY RECORD-FOR-
THE-DAY PRECIPITABLE WATER AS COMPARED AGAINST THE SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. ALTHOUGH A NICE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ARC ACROSS THE
MEXICO/US BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL NOT AID IN ANY LIFT SO
UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK INVOF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 11-12
KFT...AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH PROVIDES LONG PARCEL RESIDENCE
TIMES WITHIN THE SATURATED COLUMN...SUGGEST PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS
PRETTY LIMITED SO THUNDER WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 1" OF QPF OR MORE LOOKS VERY LIKELY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED
DEEP SW FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL STILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL-TO-ABOVE FOR MID-APRIL.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH FEWER CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSOLATION TO WARM THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE 12-
14C...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
SUNDAY...WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP ONLY INTO THE UPR 60S...LOW 60S
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING...AND A PRIMARILY QUIET WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES
TUE-THU BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO FORCED-ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL
SIT AND SPIN ACROSS SE CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...SO WHILE COOLER
TEMPS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED...SEASONABLE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED. LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BOTH DUE TO INCREASED COLUMN MOISTURE...BUT ALSO
THANKS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW...DRIVEN BY A
PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE UPPER
LOW. TEMPS THU/FRI WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A RATHER LARGE BATCH OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE.
LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT MVFR WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR PERIODS IN THE
HEAVIER PRECIP. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL EXIT THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT MVFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN FOR SOME TIME AFTER THAT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH WILL GIVE US LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SATURDAY...ADJUSTED FORECAST WIND DIRECTIONS 20-30
DEGREES COUNTERCLOCKWISE FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

A VERY DISORGANIZED SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED A COUPLE DAYS AGO ALONG AN
OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
MORE IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING WHICH PROMISES TO BRING GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE LOOK FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A REDUCTION IN RAIN COVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. BY
LATE TONIGHT THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST COULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES IN AROUND
DAYBREAK.

VARIABLE WINDS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS AS HIGH AS
4 FEET IN THE 10-20 MILE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR CAPE FEAR WILL SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 2-3 FEET SEAS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS. VERY
LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA...WITH INCREASING NE WINDS EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A POSSIBLE SHORT SCA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THIS TIME...WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO S THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE WINDS VEER THEY WILL INCREASE AS
WELL...BECOMING 15-20 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THESE WINDS
WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-6 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC WATERS. A SHORT
DURATION SCA STILL LOOKS LIKELY AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH MONDAY TO THE SW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS...BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. SEAS MONDAY WILL BE 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE FALLING AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS...LIGHT NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND EVENTUALLY TURNING
TO THE SW LATE...BUT STILL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY...LEFTOVERS FROM THE MORE STRONGLY FORCED SEAS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 181046
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
646 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SATURDAY...THE ONLY TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING ARE TO INCREASE POPS TO 80-100 PERCENT ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95 FOR THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE COAST. LATEST HRRR AND HRRRX MODELS SHOW
THIS ACTIVITY MOVING OFF THE COAST BY 15Z-16Z (11 AM TO NOON) WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING FARTHER INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

A VERY NEBULOUS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED A COUPLE DAYS AGO ALONG AN
OLD STALLED FRONT NEAR SAVANNAH. THIS LOW IS NOW DISSIPATING WELL
EAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DUE TO LACK OF BAROCLINICITY.
THIS WILL LEAVE VIRTUALLY NO SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE
TODAY...LEAVING WINDS AT THE MERCY OF LOCAL EFFECTS LIKE THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION PLUS ANY SHOWER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE MARKEDLY IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK.
STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL CUT THROUGH THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHS SHOULD STILL APPROACH 80 INLAND...WITH MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT THE COAST...TEMPS NEAR 80 SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND WITH COVERAGE PROBABLY AROUND 30 PERCENT.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS VERY
LATE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD FOR
THE SHORT TERM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BENEATH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VLY. A
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE
CAROLINAS...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP SW FLOW WILL INTENSIFY
LATE SUNDAY...WITH 850MB V-WIND COMPONENT REACHING +3 SD`S LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN ENVIRONMENT OF POTENTIALLY RECORD-FOR-
THE-DAY PRECIPITABLE WATER AS COMPARED AGAINST THE SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. ALTHOUGH A NICE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ARC ACROSS THE
MEXICO/US BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL NOT AID IN ANY LIFT SO
UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK INVOF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 11-12
KFT...AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH PROVIDES LONG PARCEL RESIDENCE
TIMES WITHIN THE SATURATED COLUMN...SUGGEST PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS
PRETTY LIMITED SO THUNDER WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 1" OF QPF OR MORE LOOKS VERY LIKELY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED
DEEP SW FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL STILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL-TO-ABOVE FOR MID-APRIL.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH FEWER CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSOLATION TO WARM THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE 12-
14C...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
SUNDAY...WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP ONLY INTO THE UPR 60S...LOW 60S
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING...AND A PRIMARILY QUIET WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES
TUE-THU BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO FORCED-ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL
SIT AND SPIN ACROSS SE CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...SO WHILE COOLER
TEMPS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED...SEASONABLE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED. LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BOTH DUE TO INCREASED COLUMN MOISTURE...BUT ALSO
THANKS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW...DRIVEN BY A
PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE UPPER
LOW. TEMPS THU/FRI WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A RATHER LARGE BATCH OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE.
LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT MVFR WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR PERIODS IN THE
HEAVIER PRECIP. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL EXIT THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT MVFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN FOR SOME TIME AFTER THAT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH WILL GIVE US LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SATURDAY...ADJUSTED FORECAST WIND DIRECTIONS 20-30
DEGREES COUNTERCLOCKWISE FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

A VERY DISORGANIZED SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED A COUPLE DAYS AGO ALONG AN
OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
MORE IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING WHICH PROMISES TO BRING GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE LOOK FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A REDUCTION IN RAIN COVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. BY
LATE TONIGHT THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST COULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES IN AROUND
DAYBREAK.

VARIABLE WINDS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS AS HIGH AS
4 FEET IN THE 10-20 MILE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR CAPE FEAR WILL SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 2-3 FEET SEAS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS. VERY
LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA...WITH INCREASING NE WINDS EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A POSSIBLE SHORT SCA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THIS TIME...WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO S THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE WINDS VEER THEY WILL INCREASE AS
WELL...BECOMING 15-20 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THESE WINDS
WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-6 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC WATERS. A SHORT
DURATION SCA STILL LOOKS LIKELY AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH MONDAY TO THE SW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS...BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. SEAS MONDAY WILL BE 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE FALLING AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS...LIGHT NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND EVENTUALLY TURNING
TO THE SW LATE...BUT STILL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY...LEFTOVERS FROM THE MORE STRONGLY FORCED SEAS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 181046
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
646 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SATURDAY...THE ONLY TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING ARE TO INCREASE POPS TO 80-100 PERCENT ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95 FOR THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE COAST. LATEST HRRR AND HRRRX MODELS SHOW
THIS ACTIVITY MOVING OFF THE COAST BY 15Z-16Z (11 AM TO NOON) WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING FARTHER INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

A VERY NEBULOUS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED A COUPLE DAYS AGO ALONG AN
OLD STALLED FRONT NEAR SAVANNAH. THIS LOW IS NOW DISSIPATING WELL
EAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DUE TO LACK OF BAROCLINICITY.
THIS WILL LEAVE VIRTUALLY NO SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE
TODAY...LEAVING WINDS AT THE MERCY OF LOCAL EFFECTS LIKE THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION PLUS ANY SHOWER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE MARKEDLY IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK.
STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL CUT THROUGH THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHS SHOULD STILL APPROACH 80 INLAND...WITH MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT THE COAST...TEMPS NEAR 80 SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND WITH COVERAGE PROBABLY AROUND 30 PERCENT.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS VERY
LATE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD FOR
THE SHORT TERM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BENEATH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VLY. A
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE
CAROLINAS...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP SW FLOW WILL INTENSIFY
LATE SUNDAY...WITH 850MB V-WIND COMPONENT REACHING +3 SD`S LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN ENVIRONMENT OF POTENTIALLY RECORD-FOR-
THE-DAY PRECIPITABLE WATER AS COMPARED AGAINST THE SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. ALTHOUGH A NICE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ARC ACROSS THE
MEXICO/US BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL NOT AID IN ANY LIFT SO
UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK INVOF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 11-12
KFT...AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH PROVIDES LONG PARCEL RESIDENCE
TIMES WITHIN THE SATURATED COLUMN...SUGGEST PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS
PRETTY LIMITED SO THUNDER WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 1" OF QPF OR MORE LOOKS VERY LIKELY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED
DEEP SW FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL STILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL-TO-ABOVE FOR MID-APRIL.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH FEWER CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSOLATION TO WARM THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE 12-
14C...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
SUNDAY...WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP ONLY INTO THE UPR 60S...LOW 60S
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING...AND A PRIMARILY QUIET WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES
TUE-THU BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO FORCED-ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL
SIT AND SPIN ACROSS SE CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...SO WHILE COOLER
TEMPS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED...SEASONABLE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED. LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BOTH DUE TO INCREASED COLUMN MOISTURE...BUT ALSO
THANKS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW...DRIVEN BY A
PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE UPPER
LOW. TEMPS THU/FRI WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A RATHER LARGE BATCH OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE.
LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT MVFR WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR PERIODS IN THE
HEAVIER PRECIP. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL EXIT THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT MVFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN FOR SOME TIME AFTER THAT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH WILL GIVE US LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SATURDAY...ADJUSTED FORECAST WIND DIRECTIONS 20-30
DEGREES COUNTERCLOCKWISE FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

A VERY DISORGANIZED SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED A COUPLE DAYS AGO ALONG AN
OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
MORE IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING WHICH PROMISES TO BRING GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE LOOK FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A REDUCTION IN RAIN COVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. BY
LATE TONIGHT THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST COULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES IN AROUND
DAYBREAK.

VARIABLE WINDS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS AS HIGH AS
4 FEET IN THE 10-20 MILE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR CAPE FEAR WILL SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 2-3 FEET SEAS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS. VERY
LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA...WITH INCREASING NE WINDS EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A POSSIBLE SHORT SCA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THIS TIME...WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO S THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE WINDS VEER THEY WILL INCREASE AS
WELL...BECOMING 15-20 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THESE WINDS
WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-6 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC WATERS. A SHORT
DURATION SCA STILL LOOKS LIKELY AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH MONDAY TO THE SW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS...BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. SEAS MONDAY WILL BE 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE FALLING AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS...LIGHT NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND EVENTUALLY TURNING
TO THE SW LATE...BUT STILL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY...LEFTOVERS FROM THE MORE STRONGLY FORCED SEAS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 181042
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A VERY NEBULOUS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
EXISTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO ALONG AN OLD STALLED FRONT NEAR SAVANNAH. THIS LOW IS NOW
DISSIPATING WELL EAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DUE TO LACK OF
BAROCLINICITY. THIS WILL LEAVE VIRTUALLY NO SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE
TODAY...LEAVING WINDS AT THE MERCY OF LOCAL EFFECTS LIKE THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION PLUS ANY SHOWER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE MARKEDLY IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK.
STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL CUT THROUGH THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHS SHOULD STILL APPROACH 80 INLAND...WITH MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT THE COAST...TEMPS NEAR 80 SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND WITH COVERAGE PROBABLY AROUND 30 PERCENT.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS VERY
LATE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD FOR
THE SHORT TERM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BENEATH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VLY. A
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE
CAROLINAS...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP SW FLOW WILL INTENSIFY
LATE SUNDAY...WITH 850MB V-WIND COMPONENT REACHING +3 SD`S LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN ENVIRONMENT OF POTENTIALLY RECORD-FOR-
THE-DAY PRECIPITABLE WATER AS COMPARED AGAINST THE SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. ALTHOUGH A NICE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ARC ACROSS THE
MEXICO/US BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL NOT AID IN ANY LIFT SO
UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK INVOF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 11-12
KFT...AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH PROVIDES LONG PARCEL RESIDENCE
TIMES WITHIN THE SATURATED COLUMN...SUGGEST PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS
PRETTY LIMITED SO THUNDER WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 1" OF QPF OR MORE LOOKS VERY LIKELY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED
DEEP SW FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL STILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL-TO-ABOVE FOR MID-APRIL.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH FEWER CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSOLATION TO WARM THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE 12-
14C...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
SUNDAY...WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP ONLY INTO THE UPR 60S...LOW 60S
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING...AND A PRIMARILY QUIET WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES
TUE-THU BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO FORCED-ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL
SIT AND SPIN ACROSS SE CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...SO WHILE COOLER
TEMPS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED...SEASONABLE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED. LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BOTH DUE TO INCREASED COLUMN MOISTURE...BUT ALSO
THANKS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW...DRIVEN BY A
PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE UPPER
LOW. TEMPS THU/FRI WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A RATHER LARGE BATCH OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE.
LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT MVFR WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR PERIODS IN THE
HEAVIER PRECIP. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL EXIT THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT MVFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN FOR SOME TIME AFTER THAT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH WILL GIVE US LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A VERY DISORGANIZED SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN
EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. MORE IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING WHICH PROMISES TO BRING GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE LOOK FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A REDUCTION IN RAIN COVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE
TONIGHT THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD
BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES IN AROUND DAYBREAK.

VARIABLE WINDS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS AS HIGH AS
4 FEET IN THE 10-20 MILE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR CAPE FEAR WILL SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 2-3 FEET SEAS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS. VERY
LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA...WITH INCREASING NE WINDS EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A POSSIBLE SHORT SCA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THIS TIME...WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO S THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE WINDS VEER THEY WILL INCREASE AS
WELL...BECOMING 15-20 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THESE WINDS
WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-6 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC WATERS. A SHORT
DURATION SCA STILL LOOKS LIKELY AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH MONDAY TO THE SW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS...BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. SEAS MONDAY WILL BE 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE FALLING AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS...LIGHT NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND EVENTUALLY TURNING
TO THE SW LATE...BUT STILL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY...LEFTOVERS FROM THE MORE STRONGLY FORCED SEAS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA/JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
 MARINE...TRA/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 181042
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A VERY NEBULOUS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
EXISTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO ALONG AN OLD STALLED FRONT NEAR SAVANNAH. THIS LOW IS NOW
DISSIPATING WELL EAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DUE TO LACK OF
BAROCLINICITY. THIS WILL LEAVE VIRTUALLY NO SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE
TODAY...LEAVING WINDS AT THE MERCY OF LOCAL EFFECTS LIKE THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION PLUS ANY SHOWER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE MARKEDLY IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK.
STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL CUT THROUGH THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHS SHOULD STILL APPROACH 80 INLAND...WITH MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT THE COAST...TEMPS NEAR 80 SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND WITH COVERAGE PROBABLY AROUND 30 PERCENT.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS VERY
LATE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD FOR
THE SHORT TERM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BENEATH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VLY. A
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE
CAROLINAS...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP SW FLOW WILL INTENSIFY
LATE SUNDAY...WITH 850MB V-WIND COMPONENT REACHING +3 SD`S LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN ENVIRONMENT OF POTENTIALLY RECORD-FOR-
THE-DAY PRECIPITABLE WATER AS COMPARED AGAINST THE SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. ALTHOUGH A NICE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ARC ACROSS THE
MEXICO/US BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL NOT AID IN ANY LIFT SO
UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK INVOF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 11-12
KFT...AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH PROVIDES LONG PARCEL RESIDENCE
TIMES WITHIN THE SATURATED COLUMN...SUGGEST PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS
PRETTY LIMITED SO THUNDER WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 1" OF QPF OR MORE LOOKS VERY LIKELY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED
DEEP SW FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL STILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL-TO-ABOVE FOR MID-APRIL.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH FEWER CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSOLATION TO WARM THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE 12-
14C...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
SUNDAY...WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP ONLY INTO THE UPR 60S...LOW 60S
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING...AND A PRIMARILY QUIET WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES
TUE-THU BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO FORCED-ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL
SIT AND SPIN ACROSS SE CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...SO WHILE COOLER
TEMPS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED...SEASONABLE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED. LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BOTH DUE TO INCREASED COLUMN MOISTURE...BUT ALSO
THANKS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW...DRIVEN BY A
PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE UPPER
LOW. TEMPS THU/FRI WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A RATHER LARGE BATCH OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE.
LOOK FOR INTERMITTENT MVFR WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR PERIODS IN THE
HEAVIER PRECIP. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL EXIT THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT MVFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN FOR SOME TIME AFTER THAT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH WILL GIVE US LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A VERY DISORGANIZED SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN
EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. MORE IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING WHICH PROMISES TO BRING GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE LOOK FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A REDUCTION IN RAIN COVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE
TONIGHT THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD
BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES IN AROUND DAYBREAK.

VARIABLE WINDS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS AS HIGH AS
4 FEET IN THE 10-20 MILE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR CAPE FEAR WILL SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 2-3 FEET SEAS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS. VERY
LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA...WITH INCREASING NE WINDS EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A POSSIBLE SHORT SCA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THIS TIME...WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO S THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE WINDS VEER THEY WILL INCREASE AS
WELL...BECOMING 15-20 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THESE WINDS
WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-6 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC WATERS. A SHORT
DURATION SCA STILL LOOKS LIKELY AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH MONDAY TO THE SW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS...BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. SEAS MONDAY WILL BE 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE FALLING AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS...LIGHT NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND EVENTUALLY TURNING
TO THE SW LATE...BUT STILL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY...LEFTOVERS FROM THE MORE STRONGLY FORCED SEAS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA/JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
 MARINE...TRA/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 180736
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A VERY NEBULOUS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
EXISTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO ALONG AN OLD STALLED FRONT NEAR SAVANNAH. THIS LOW IS NOW
DISSIPATING WELL EAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DUE TO LACK OF
BAROCLINICITY. THIS WILL LEAVE VIRTUALLY NO SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE
TODAY...LEAVING WINDS AT THE MERCY OF LOCAL EFFECTS LIKE THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION PLUS ANY SHOWER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE MARKEDLY IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK.
STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL CUT THROUGH THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHS SHOULD STILL APPROACH 80 INLAND...WITH MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT THE COAST...TEMPS NEAR 80 SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND WITH COVERAGE PROBABLY AROUND 30 PERCENT.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS VERY
LATE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD FOR
THE SHORT TERM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BENEATH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VLY. A
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE
CAROLINAS...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP SW FLOW WILL INTENSIFY
LATE SUNDAY...WITH 850MB V-WIND COMPONENT REACHING +3 SD`S LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN ENVIRONMENT OF POTENTIALLY RECORD-FOR-
THE-DAY PRECIPITABLE WATER AS COMPARED AGAINST THE SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. ALTHOUGH A NICE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ARC ACROSS THE
MEXICO/US BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL NOT AID IN ANY LIFT SO
UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK INVOF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 11-12
KFT...AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH PROVIDES LONG PARCEL RESIDENCE
TIMES WITHIN THE SATURATED COLUMN...SUGGEST PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS
PRETTY LIMITED SO THUNDER WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 1" OF QPF OR MORE LOOKS VERY LIKELY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED
DEEP SW FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL STILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL-TO-ABOVE FOR MID-APRIL.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH FEWER CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSOLATION TO WARM THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE 12-
14C...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
SUNDAY...WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP ONLY INTO THE UPR 60S...LOW 60S
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING...AND A PRIMARILY QUIET WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES
TUE-THU BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO FORCED-ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL
SIT AND SPIN ACROSS SE CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...SO WHILE COOLER
TEMPS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED...SEASONABLE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED. LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BOTH DUE TO INCREASED COLUMN MOISTURE...BUT ALSO
THANKS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW...DRIVEN BY A
PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE UPPER
LOW. TEMPS THU/FRI WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z SATURDAY...LATEST RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF THE PCPN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP TYPE MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF MODERATE SHOWERS. THIS PCPN
IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DYNAMICS FROM A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF THAT WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THIS MORNING...AND EXITING TO THE NE BY MID-
AFTERNOON. WITH NO REAL SFC CONVERGENCE TO FURTHER AID PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY...HAVE KEPT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER OUT
OF ALL TERMINALS. IF THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH...THEN
THUNDER MAY BECOME A POSSIBILITY FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
OUTSIDE OF THE PCPN OCCURRENCE EARLY THIS MORNING...THE TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM
BR. LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE NOW BACKS DOWN WITH THE
DENSE FOG THREAT. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HOURS BEFORE ANY REAL IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS ARE REALIZED AS
PCPN SUPPORT ALOFT MOVES NE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A VERY DISORGANIZED SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN
EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. MORE IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING WHICH PROMISES TO BRING GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE LOOK FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A REDUCTION IN RAIN COVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE
TONIGHT THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD
BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES IN AROUND DAYBREAK.

VARIABLE WINDS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS AS HIGH AS
4 FEET IN THE 10-20 MILE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR CAPE FEAR WILL SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 2-3 FEET SEAS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS. VERY
LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA...WITH INCREASING NE WINDS EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A POSSIBLE SHORT SCA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THIS TIME...WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO S THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE WINDS VEER THEY WILL INCREASE AS
WELL...BECOMING 15-20 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THESE WINDS
WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-6 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC WATERS. A SHORT
DURATION SCA STILL LOOKS LIKELY AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH MONDAY TO THE SW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS...BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. SEAS MONDAY WILL BE 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE FALLING AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS...LIGHT NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND EVENTUALLY TURNING
TO THE SW LATE...BUT STILL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY...LEFTOVERS FROM THE MORE STRONGLY FORCED SEAS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA/JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 180736
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A VERY NEBULOUS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
EXISTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO ALONG AN OLD STALLED FRONT NEAR SAVANNAH. THIS LOW IS NOW
DISSIPATING WELL EAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DUE TO LACK OF
BAROCLINICITY. THIS WILL LEAVE VIRTUALLY NO SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE
TODAY...LEAVING WINDS AT THE MERCY OF LOCAL EFFECTS LIKE THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION PLUS ANY SHOWER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE MARKEDLY IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK.
STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL CUT THROUGH THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHS SHOULD STILL APPROACH 80 INLAND...WITH MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT THE COAST...TEMPS NEAR 80 SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND WITH COVERAGE PROBABLY AROUND 30 PERCENT.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS VERY
LATE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD FOR
THE SHORT TERM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BENEATH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VLY. A
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE
CAROLINAS...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP SW FLOW WILL INTENSIFY
LATE SUNDAY...WITH 850MB V-WIND COMPONENT REACHING +3 SD`S LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN ENVIRONMENT OF POTENTIALLY RECORD-FOR-
THE-DAY PRECIPITABLE WATER AS COMPARED AGAINST THE SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. ALTHOUGH A NICE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ARC ACROSS THE
MEXICO/US BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL NOT AID IN ANY LIFT SO
UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK INVOF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 11-12
KFT...AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH PROVIDES LONG PARCEL RESIDENCE
TIMES WITHIN THE SATURATED COLUMN...SUGGEST PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS
PRETTY LIMITED SO THUNDER WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 1" OF QPF OR MORE LOOKS VERY LIKELY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED
DEEP SW FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL STILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL-TO-ABOVE FOR MID-APRIL.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH FEWER CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSOLATION TO WARM THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE 12-
14C...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
SUNDAY...WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP ONLY INTO THE UPR 60S...LOW 60S
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING...AND A PRIMARILY QUIET WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES
TUE-THU BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO FORCED-ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL
SIT AND SPIN ACROSS SE CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...SO WHILE COOLER
TEMPS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED...SEASONABLE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED. LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BOTH DUE TO INCREASED COLUMN MOISTURE...BUT ALSO
THANKS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW...DRIVEN BY A
PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE UPPER
LOW. TEMPS THU/FRI WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z SATURDAY...LATEST RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF THE PCPN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP TYPE MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF MODERATE SHOWERS. THIS PCPN
IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DYNAMICS FROM A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF THAT WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THIS MORNING...AND EXITING TO THE NE BY MID-
AFTERNOON. WITH NO REAL SFC CONVERGENCE TO FURTHER AID PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY...HAVE KEPT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER OUT
OF ALL TERMINALS. IF THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH...THEN
THUNDER MAY BECOME A POSSIBILITY FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
OUTSIDE OF THE PCPN OCCURRENCE EARLY THIS MORNING...THE TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM
BR. LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE NOW BACKS DOWN WITH THE
DENSE FOG THREAT. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HOURS BEFORE ANY REAL IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS ARE REALIZED AS
PCPN SUPPORT ALOFT MOVES NE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A VERY DISORGANIZED SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN
EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. MORE IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING WHICH PROMISES TO BRING GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE LOOK FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A REDUCTION IN RAIN COVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE
TONIGHT THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD
BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES IN AROUND DAYBREAK.

VARIABLE WINDS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS AS HIGH AS
4 FEET IN THE 10-20 MILE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR CAPE FEAR WILL SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 2-3 FEET SEAS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS. VERY
LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA...WITH INCREASING NE WINDS EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A POSSIBLE SHORT SCA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THIS TIME...WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO S THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE WINDS VEER THEY WILL INCREASE AS
WELL...BECOMING 15-20 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THESE WINDS
WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-6 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC WATERS. A SHORT
DURATION SCA STILL LOOKS LIKELY AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH MONDAY TO THE SW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS...BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. SEAS MONDAY WILL BE 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE FALLING AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS...LIGHT NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND EVENTUALLY TURNING
TO THE SW LATE...BUT STILL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY...LEFTOVERS FROM THE MORE STRONGLY FORCED SEAS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA/JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 180436
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. I HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES BY 1-2
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. DISCUSSION FROM 1000
PM FOLLOWS...

SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DISTINGUISHABLE IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE AN UPTICK IS SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR PCPN INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ISOLATED AND SCT SHOWERS WILL
PREVAIL MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TO LIKELY
COVERAGE TO ARRIVE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE
PREVIOUS EVENING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ESSENTIALLY JUST NICKEL AND DIME CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
IN TWEAKING T/TD...AND LINING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TO NEAR TERM
GRIDDED DATA. DIURNAL COOLING HAS DIMINISHED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL INTERIOR...AND THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO -RA
SPREADING IN FROM WSW FROM HIGHER CLOUD BASES...ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE GUIDED IN THE H7-H5 WIND FLOW. WILL MONITOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HOURLY RAIN- RATE TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF A
HIGH END SCATTERED OR LIKELY POP VALUES WILL BE NEEDED.THE LOW
OFFSHORE WILL VERY GRADUALLY FILL AND SAG LAZILY EASTWARD THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN AND
LIGHT WIND FIELD OVERALL. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY RAIN
COOLED AIR SHOULD BRING MINIMUMS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INTO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. PATCHY LIGHT MIST OUGHT TO BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE ON SAT WILL BE
DEEPEST NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD...HIGHEST INLAND. WILL CARRY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND SAT
MORNING... LIKELY...WITH CHANCE NEARER TO THE COAST. THE BUILDING
RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND THUS
IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHOW POPS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY BY EVE. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING SAT
AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE EVE. AS
THE TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...A MORE POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT SAT...MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN PIECES ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N...WILL STALL TO OUR N ON
SUN. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. AS A DEEP MOISTURE FEED RESUMES ON STRENGTHENING S TO SW
FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR SUN. POPS WILL TREND LOWER DURING SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE START OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
THE BUSIEST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION
BEING SUPPLIED SOME DEEPER LIFT BY SHORTWAVE-LADEN CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW AROUND LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES. FRONT AND ITS
ASSOC MOISTURE APPEAR TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO RAPID DROP IN RAIN CHANCES THOUGH THE LINGERING UPPER
ENERGY MAKES A 100 PERCENT DRY FORECAST TOUGH TO PROMISE. THE CAA
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE TEMPERED SO TEMP DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO WILL BE MINIMAL. THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES BEYOND
THE MONDAY NIGHT DRYING BUT A PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY CALL FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z SATURDAY...LATEST RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF THE PCPN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP TYPE MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF MODERATE SHOWERS. THIS PCPN
IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DYNAMICS FROM A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF THAT WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THIS MORNING...AND EXITING TO THE NE BY MID-
AFTERNOON. WITH NO REAL SFC CONVERGENCE TO FURTHER AID PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY...HAVE KEPT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER OUT
OF ALL TERMINALS. IF THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH...THEN
THUNDER MAY BECOME A POSSIBILITY FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
OUTSIDE OF THE PCPN OCCURRENCE EARLY THIS MORNING...THE TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM
BR. LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE NOW BACKS DOWN WITH THE
DENSE FOG THREAT. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HOURS BEFORE ANY REAL IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS ARE REALIZED AS
PCPN SUPPORT ALOFT MOVES NE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS THROWING SE
WINDS BACK TOWARD THE COAST...HOWEVER LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
EXPANDING FROM THE BEACHES AND SHOULD PUSH OUT BEYOND 20 MILES
FROM SHORE OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR
LESS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS...EXCEPT LOCALLY 5
FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...

SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT TO A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET UNDER A VERY LIGHT NE TO N WIND...WITH DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS
OF 8-9 SECONDS. MAINLY PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT
N-NE WIND WILL PREVAIL INTO VERY EARLY SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE DECAYS AND DRIFTS E. SPECTRAL ENERGY TO REMAIN
SOLIDLY LOCKED IN 8-9 SEC BANDS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHOP OVERNIGHT.
NO TSTMS OR DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO PLAGUE THE 0-20 NM WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY SUN AND THEN SE AND S BY
SUN EVE AND FINALLY SW SUN NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15
KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO AROUND 20 KT LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT SAT INTO SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT LATER SUN
WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO INITIALIZE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN A MODERATELY STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW
REGIME. WIND WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS APPEAR
TO MAKE CRITERIA (6FT). A PRETTY SHARP VEER IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS HOWEVER AS THE POST-FRONTAL
GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL. TUESDAY`S DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY NWRLY WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL FIND THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 180436
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. I HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES BY 1-2
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. DISCUSSION FROM 1000
PM FOLLOWS...

SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DISTINGUISHABLE IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE AN UPTICK IS SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR PCPN INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ISOLATED AND SCT SHOWERS WILL
PREVAIL MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TO LIKELY
COVERAGE TO ARRIVE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE
PREVIOUS EVENING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ESSENTIALLY JUST NICKEL AND DIME CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
IN TWEAKING T/TD...AND LINING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TO NEAR TERM
GRIDDED DATA. DIURNAL COOLING HAS DIMINISHED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL INTERIOR...AND THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO -RA
SPREADING IN FROM WSW FROM HIGHER CLOUD BASES...ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE GUIDED IN THE H7-H5 WIND FLOW. WILL MONITOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HOURLY RAIN- RATE TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF A
HIGH END SCATTERED OR LIKELY POP VALUES WILL BE NEEDED.THE LOW
OFFSHORE WILL VERY GRADUALLY FILL AND SAG LAZILY EASTWARD THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN AND
LIGHT WIND FIELD OVERALL. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY RAIN
COOLED AIR SHOULD BRING MINIMUMS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INTO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. PATCHY LIGHT MIST OUGHT TO BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE ON SAT WILL BE
DEEPEST NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD...HIGHEST INLAND. WILL CARRY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND SAT
MORNING... LIKELY...WITH CHANCE NEARER TO THE COAST. THE BUILDING
RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND THUS
IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHOW POPS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY BY EVE. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING SAT
AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE EVE. AS
THE TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...A MORE POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT SAT...MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN PIECES ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N...WILL STALL TO OUR N ON
SUN. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. AS A DEEP MOISTURE FEED RESUMES ON STRENGTHENING S TO SW
FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR SUN. POPS WILL TREND LOWER DURING SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE START OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
THE BUSIEST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION
BEING SUPPLIED SOME DEEPER LIFT BY SHORTWAVE-LADEN CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW AROUND LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES. FRONT AND ITS
ASSOC MOISTURE APPEAR TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO RAPID DROP IN RAIN CHANCES THOUGH THE LINGERING UPPER
ENERGY MAKES A 100 PERCENT DRY FORECAST TOUGH TO PROMISE. THE CAA
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE TEMPERED SO TEMP DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO WILL BE MINIMAL. THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES BEYOND
THE MONDAY NIGHT DRYING BUT A PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY CALL FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z SATURDAY...LATEST RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF THE PCPN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP TYPE MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF MODERATE SHOWERS. THIS PCPN
IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DYNAMICS FROM A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF THAT WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THIS MORNING...AND EXITING TO THE NE BY MID-
AFTERNOON. WITH NO REAL SFC CONVERGENCE TO FURTHER AID PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY...HAVE KEPT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER OUT
OF ALL TERMINALS. IF THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH...THEN
THUNDER MAY BECOME A POSSIBILITY FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
OUTSIDE OF THE PCPN OCCURRENCE EARLY THIS MORNING...THE TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM
BR. LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE NOW BACKS DOWN WITH THE
DENSE FOG THREAT. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HOURS BEFORE ANY REAL IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS ARE REALIZED AS
PCPN SUPPORT ALOFT MOVES NE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS THROWING SE
WINDS BACK TOWARD THE COAST...HOWEVER LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
EXPANDING FROM THE BEACHES AND SHOULD PUSH OUT BEYOND 20 MILES
FROM SHORE OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR
LESS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS...EXCEPT LOCALLY 5
FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...

SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT TO A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET UNDER A VERY LIGHT NE TO N WIND...WITH DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS
OF 8-9 SECONDS. MAINLY PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT
N-NE WIND WILL PREVAIL INTO VERY EARLY SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE DECAYS AND DRIFTS E. SPECTRAL ENERGY TO REMAIN
SOLIDLY LOCKED IN 8-9 SEC BANDS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHOP OVERNIGHT.
NO TSTMS OR DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO PLAGUE THE 0-20 NM WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY SUN AND THEN SE AND S BY
SUN EVE AND FINALLY SW SUN NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15
KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO AROUND 20 KT LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT SAT INTO SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT LATER SUN
WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO INITIALIZE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN A MODERATELY STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW
REGIME. WIND WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS APPEAR
TO MAKE CRITERIA (6FT). A PRETTY SHARP VEER IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS HOWEVER AS THE POST-FRONTAL
GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL. TUESDAY`S DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY NWRLY WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL FIND THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 180206
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1006 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DISTINGUISHABLE IN VAPOR
ANIMATIONS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE AN UPTICK
IS SUPPORT ALOFT FOR PCPN INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ISOLATED AND SCT
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
TO LIKELY COVERAGE TO ARRIVE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE
PREVIOUS EVENING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ESSENTIALLY JUST NICKEL AND DIME CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
IN TWEAKING T/TD...AND LINING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TO NEAR TERM
GRIDDED DATA. DIURNAL COOLING HAS DIMINISHED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL INTERIOR...AND THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO -RA
SPREADING IN FROM WSW FROM HIGHER CLOUD BASES...ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE GUIDED IN THE H7-H5 WIND FLOW. WILL MONITOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HOURLY RAIN- RATE TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF A
HIGH END SCATTERED OR LIKELY POP VALUES WILL BE NEEDED.THE LOW
OFFSHORE WILL VERY GRADUALLY FILL AND SAG LAZILY EASTWARD THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN AND
LIGHT WIND FIELD OVERALL. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY RAIN
COOLED AIR SHOULD BRING MINIMUMS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INTO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. PATCHY LIGHT MIST OUGHT TO BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE ON SAT WILL BE
DEEPEST NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD...HIGHEST INLAND. WILL CARRY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND SAT
MORNING... LIKELY...WITH CHANCE NEARER TO THE COAST. THE BUILDING
RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND THUS
IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHOW POPS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY BY EVE. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING SAT
AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE EVE. AS
THE TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...A MORE POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT SAT...MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN PIECES ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N...WILL STALL TO OUR N ON
SUN. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. AS A DEEP MOISTURE FEED RESUMES ON STRENGTHENING S TO SW
FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR SUN. POPS WILL TREND LOWER DURING SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE START OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
THE BUSIEST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION
BEING SUPPLIED SOME DEEPER LIFT BY SHORTWAVE-LADEN CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW AROUND LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES. FRONT AND ITS
ASSOC MOISTURE APPEAR TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO RAPID DROP IN RAIN CHANCES THOUGH THE LINGERING UPPER
ENERGY MAKES A 100 PERCENT DRY FORECAST TOUGH TO PROMISE. THE CAA
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE TEMPERED SO TEMP DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO WILL BE MINIMAL. THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES BEYOND
THE MONDAY NIGHT DRYING BUT A PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY CALL FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SATURDAY...LATEST 88D INDICATED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ILM CWA...WITH MAJORITY OF THE PCPN NOT
REACHING THE GROUND ATTM. AS A RESULT WILL INITIALIZE WITH VCSH
ALL TERMINALS. AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND BECOME
MORE STEADY AS DYNAMICS ALOFT VIA S/W TROF...AID IN THE PCPN
DEVELOPMENT. WITH NO REAL SFC CONVERGENCE TO FURTHER AID PCPN
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE KEPT THE THREAT OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST.
OUTSIDE OF THE PCPN OCCURRENCE OVERNIGHT...THE TERMINALS WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM BR
AND/OR FG. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS BEFORE ANY
REAL IMPROVEMENTS TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE REALIZED AS PCPN
SUPPORT ALOFT MOVES NE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH THUNDER TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
OVERNIGHT TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET UNDER A VERY LIGHT NE TO N
WIND...WITH DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS OF 8-9 SECONDS. MAINLY PATCHY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT N-NE WIND WILL PREVAIL INTO
VERY EARLY SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE DECAYS AND
DRIFTS E. SPECTRAL ENERGY TO REMAIN SOLIDLY LOCKED IN 8-9 SEC
BANDS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHOP OVERNIGHT. NO TSTMS OR DENSE FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO PLAGUE THE 0-20 NM WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY SUN AND THEN SE AND S BY
SUN EVE AND FINALLY SW SUN NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15
KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO AROUND 20 KT LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT SAT INTO SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT LATER SUN
WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO INITIALIZE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN A MODERATELY STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW
REGIME. WIND WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS APPEAR
TO MAKE CRITERIA (6FT). A PRETTY SHARP VEER IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS HOWEVER AS THE POST-FRONTAL
GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL. TUESDAY`S DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY NWRLY WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL FIND THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 180206
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1006 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DISTINGUISHABLE IN VAPOR
ANIMATIONS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE AN UPTICK
IS SUPPORT ALOFT FOR PCPN INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ISOLATED AND SCT
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
TO LIKELY COVERAGE TO ARRIVE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE
PREVIOUS EVENING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ESSENTIALLY JUST NICKEL AND DIME CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
IN TWEAKING T/TD...AND LINING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TO NEAR TERM
GRIDDED DATA. DIURNAL COOLING HAS DIMINISHED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL INTERIOR...AND THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO -RA
SPREADING IN FROM WSW FROM HIGHER CLOUD BASES...ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE GUIDED IN THE H7-H5 WIND FLOW. WILL MONITOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HOURLY RAIN- RATE TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF A
HIGH END SCATTERED OR LIKELY POP VALUES WILL BE NEEDED.THE LOW
OFFSHORE WILL VERY GRADUALLY FILL AND SAG LAZILY EASTWARD THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN AND
LIGHT WIND FIELD OVERALL. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY RAIN
COOLED AIR SHOULD BRING MINIMUMS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INTO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. PATCHY LIGHT MIST OUGHT TO BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE ON SAT WILL BE
DEEPEST NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD...HIGHEST INLAND. WILL CARRY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND SAT
MORNING... LIKELY...WITH CHANCE NEARER TO THE COAST. THE BUILDING
RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND THUS
IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHOW POPS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY BY EVE. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING SAT
AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE EVE. AS
THE TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...A MORE POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT SAT...MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN PIECES ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N...WILL STALL TO OUR N ON
SUN. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. AS A DEEP MOISTURE FEED RESUMES ON STRENGTHENING S TO SW
FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR SUN. POPS WILL TREND LOWER DURING SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE START OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
THE BUSIEST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION
BEING SUPPLIED SOME DEEPER LIFT BY SHORTWAVE-LADEN CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW AROUND LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES. FRONT AND ITS
ASSOC MOISTURE APPEAR TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO RAPID DROP IN RAIN CHANCES THOUGH THE LINGERING UPPER
ENERGY MAKES A 100 PERCENT DRY FORECAST TOUGH TO PROMISE. THE CAA
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE TEMPERED SO TEMP DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO WILL BE MINIMAL. THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES BEYOND
THE MONDAY NIGHT DRYING BUT A PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY CALL FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SATURDAY...LATEST 88D INDICATED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ILM CWA...WITH MAJORITY OF THE PCPN NOT
REACHING THE GROUND ATTM. AS A RESULT WILL INITIALIZE WITH VCSH
ALL TERMINALS. AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND BECOME
MORE STEADY AS DYNAMICS ALOFT VIA S/W TROF...AID IN THE PCPN
DEVELOPMENT. WITH NO REAL SFC CONVERGENCE TO FURTHER AID PCPN
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE KEPT THE THREAT OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST.
OUTSIDE OF THE PCPN OCCURRENCE OVERNIGHT...THE TERMINALS WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM BR
AND/OR FG. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS BEFORE ANY
REAL IMPROVEMENTS TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE REALIZED AS PCPN
SUPPORT ALOFT MOVES NE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH THUNDER TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
OVERNIGHT TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET UNDER A VERY LIGHT NE TO N
WIND...WITH DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS OF 8-9 SECONDS. MAINLY PATCHY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT N-NE WIND WILL PREVAIL INTO
VERY EARLY SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE DECAYS AND
DRIFTS E. SPECTRAL ENERGY TO REMAIN SOLIDLY LOCKED IN 8-9 SEC
BANDS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHOP OVERNIGHT. NO TSTMS OR DENSE FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO PLAGUE THE 0-20 NM WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY SUN AND THEN SE AND S BY
SUN EVE AND FINALLY SW SUN NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15
KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO AROUND 20 KT LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT SAT INTO SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT LATER SUN
WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO INITIALIZE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN A MODERATELY STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW
REGIME. WIND WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS APPEAR
TO MAKE CRITERIA (6FT). A PRETTY SHARP VEER IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS HOWEVER AS THE POST-FRONTAL
GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL. TUESDAY`S DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY NWRLY WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL FIND THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 180030
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
830 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 657 PM FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY JUST NICKEL AND DIME CHANGES TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST IN TWEAKING T/TD...AND LINING CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS TO NEAR TERM GRIDDED DATA. DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY AID
IN DIMINISHING OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
INTERIOR...WHILE THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO -RA SPREADING IN
FROM WSW FROM HIGHER CLOUD BASES...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE
IMPULSE GUIDED IN THE H7-H5 WIND FLOW. WILL MONITOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AND HOURLY RAIN-RATE TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF A HIGH END
SCATTERED OR LIKELY POP VALUES WILL BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT...BUT SO
FAR UPSTREAM RAIN BUCKETS ONLY REGISTERING TRACE TO 0.01 AMOUNTS
PER HOUR. THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL VERY GRADUALLY FILL AND SAG LAZILY
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FLAT
PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD OVERALL. CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD BRING MINIMUMS INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. PATCHY LIGHT MIST OUGHT TO
BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE ON SAT WILL BE
DEEPEST NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD...HIGHEST INLAND. WILL CARRY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND SAT
MORNING... LIKELY...WITH CHANCE NEARER TO THE COAST. THE BUILDING
RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND THUS
IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHOW POPS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY BY EVE. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING SAT
AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE EVE. AS
THE TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...A MORE POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT SAT...MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN PIECES ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N...WILL STALL TO OUR N ON
SUN. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. AS A DEEP MOISTURE FEED RESUMES ON STRENGTHENING S TO SW
FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR SUN. POPS WILL TREND LOWER DURING SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE START OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
THE BUSIEST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION
BEING SUPPLIED SOME DEEPER LIFT BY SHORTWAVE-LADEN CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW AROUND LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES. FRONT AND ITS
ASSOC MOISTURE APPEAR TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO RAPID DROP IN RAIN CHANCES THOUGH THE LINGERING UPPER
ENERGY MAKES A 100 PERCENT DRY FORECAST TOUGH TO PROMISE. THE CAA
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE TEMPERED SO TEMP DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO WILL BE MINIMAL. THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES BEYOND
THE MONDAY NIGHT DRYING BUT A PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY CALL FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SATURDAY...LATEST 88D INDICATED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ILM CWA...WITH MAJORITY OF THE PCPN NOT
REACHING THE GROUND ATTM. AS A RESULT WILL INITIALIZE WITH VCSH
ALL TERMINALS. AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND BECOME
MORE STEADY AS DYNAMICS ALOFT VIA S/W TROF...AID IN THE PCPN
DEVELOPMENT. WITH NO REAL SFC CONVERGENCE TO FURTHER AID PCPN
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE KEPT THE THREAT OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST.
OUTSIDE OF THE PCPN OCCURRENCE OVERNIGHT...THE TERMINALS WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM BR
AND/OR FG. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS BEFORE ANY
REAL IMPROVEMENTS TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE REALIZED AS PCPN
SUPPORT ALOFT MOVES NE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH THUNDER TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 657 PM FRIDAY...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW DISCONTINUATION
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE IN WARRANTED. SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET UNDER A VERY
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...AND DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS OF 8-9
SECONDS. MAINLY PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT NE WIND
WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE DECAYS AND DRIFTS E.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY SUN AND THEN SE AND S BY
SUN EVE AND FINALLY SW SUN NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15
KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO AROUND 20 KT LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT SAT INTO SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT LATER SUN
WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO INITIALIZE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN A MODERATELY STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW
REGIME. WIND WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS APPEAR
TO MAKE CRITERIA (6FT). A PRETTY SHARP VEER IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS HOWEVER AS THE POST-FRONTAL
GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL. TUESDAY`S DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY NWRLY WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL FIND THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/SHK
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MJC/RJD/MBB/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 180030
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
830 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 657 PM FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY JUST NICKEL AND DIME CHANGES TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST IN TWEAKING T/TD...AND LINING CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS TO NEAR TERM GRIDDED DATA. DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY AID
IN DIMINISHING OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
INTERIOR...WHILE THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO -RA SPREADING IN
FROM WSW FROM HIGHER CLOUD BASES...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE
IMPULSE GUIDED IN THE H7-H5 WIND FLOW. WILL MONITOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AND HOURLY RAIN-RATE TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF A HIGH END
SCATTERED OR LIKELY POP VALUES WILL BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT...BUT SO
FAR UPSTREAM RAIN BUCKETS ONLY REGISTERING TRACE TO 0.01 AMOUNTS
PER HOUR. THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL VERY GRADUALLY FILL AND SAG LAZILY
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FLAT
PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD OVERALL. CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD BRING MINIMUMS INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. PATCHY LIGHT MIST OUGHT TO
BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE ON SAT WILL BE
DEEPEST NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD...HIGHEST INLAND. WILL CARRY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND SAT
MORNING... LIKELY...WITH CHANCE NEARER TO THE COAST. THE BUILDING
RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND THUS
IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHOW POPS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY BY EVE. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING SAT
AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE EVE. AS
THE TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...A MORE POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT SAT...MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN PIECES ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N...WILL STALL TO OUR N ON
SUN. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. AS A DEEP MOISTURE FEED RESUMES ON STRENGTHENING S TO SW
FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR SUN. POPS WILL TREND LOWER DURING SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE START OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
THE BUSIEST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION
BEING SUPPLIED SOME DEEPER LIFT BY SHORTWAVE-LADEN CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW AROUND LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES. FRONT AND ITS
ASSOC MOISTURE APPEAR TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO RAPID DROP IN RAIN CHANCES THOUGH THE LINGERING UPPER
ENERGY MAKES A 100 PERCENT DRY FORECAST TOUGH TO PROMISE. THE CAA
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE TEMPERED SO TEMP DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO WILL BE MINIMAL. THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES BEYOND
THE MONDAY NIGHT DRYING BUT A PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY CALL FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SATURDAY...LATEST 88D INDICATED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ILM CWA...WITH MAJORITY OF THE PCPN NOT
REACHING THE GROUND ATTM. AS A RESULT WILL INITIALIZE WITH VCSH
ALL TERMINALS. AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND BECOME
MORE STEADY AS DYNAMICS ALOFT VIA S/W TROF...AID IN THE PCPN
DEVELOPMENT. WITH NO REAL SFC CONVERGENCE TO FURTHER AID PCPN
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE KEPT THE THREAT OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST.
OUTSIDE OF THE PCPN OCCURRENCE OVERNIGHT...THE TERMINALS WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM BR
AND/OR FG. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS BEFORE ANY
REAL IMPROVEMENTS TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE REALIZED AS PCPN
SUPPORT ALOFT MOVES NE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH THUNDER TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 657 PM FRIDAY...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW DISCONTINUATION
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE IN WARRANTED. SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET UNDER A VERY
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...AND DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS OF 8-9
SECONDS. MAINLY PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT NE WIND
WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE DECAYS AND DRIFTS E.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY SUN AND THEN SE AND S BY
SUN EVE AND FINALLY SW SUN NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15
KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO AROUND 20 KT LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT SAT INTO SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT LATER SUN
WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO INITIALIZE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN A MODERATELY STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW
REGIME. WIND WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS APPEAR
TO MAKE CRITERIA (6FT). A PRETTY SHARP VEER IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS HOWEVER AS THE POST-FRONTAL
GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL. TUESDAY`S DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY NWRLY WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL FIND THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/SHK
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MJC/RJD/MBB/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 172257
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
657 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 657 PM FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY JUST NICKEL AND DIME CHANGES TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST IN TWEAKING T/TD...AND LINING CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS TO NEAR TERM GRIDDED DATA. DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY AID
IN DIMINISHING OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
INTERIOR...WHILE THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO -RA SPREADING IN
FROM WSW FROM HIGHER CLOUD BASES...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE
IMPULSE GUIDED IN THE H7-H5 WIND FLOW. WILL MONITOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AND HOURLY RAIN-RATE TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF A HIGH END
SCATTERED OR LIKELY POP VALUES WILL BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT...BUT SO
FAR UPSTREAM RAIN BUCKETS ONLY REGISTERING TRACE TO 0.01 AMOUNTS
PER HOUR. THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL VERY GRADUALLY FILL AND SAG LAZILY
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FLAT
PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD OVERALL. CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD BRING MINIMUMS INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. PATCHY LIGHT MIST OUGHT TO
BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE ON SAT WILL BE
DEEPEST NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD...HIGHEST INLAND. WILL CARRY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND SAT
MORNING... LIKELY...WITH CHANCE NEARER TO THE COAST. THE BUILDING
RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND THUS
IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHOW POPS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY BY EVE. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING SAT
AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE EVE. AS
THE TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...A MORE POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT SAT...MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN PIECES ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N...WILL STALL TO OUR N ON
SUN. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. AS A DEEP MOISTURE FEED RESUMES ON STRENGTHENING S TO SW
FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR SUN. POPS WILL TREND LOWER DURING SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE START OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
THE BUSIEST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION
BEING SUPPLIED SOME DEEPER LIFT BY SHORTWAVE-LADEN CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW AROUND LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES. FRONT AND ITS
ASSOC MOISTURE APPEAR TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO RAPID DROP IN RAIN CHANCES THOUGH THE LINGERING UPPER
ENERGY MAKES A 100 PERCENT DRY FORECAST TOUGH TO PROMISE. THE CAA
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE TEMPERED SO TEMP DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO WILL BE MINIMAL. THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES BEYOND
THE MONDAY NIGHT DRYING BUT A PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY CALL FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH
INLAND BY TAF TIME...WITH ONLY A VCSH MENTION ALONG THE COAST.
INLAND LOOK FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...THEN
DIMINISHING DIURNALLY. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...A
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEPT VISIBILITY MVFR IN SHOWERS...BUT THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR...AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CREEPING UP.
SATURDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 657 PM FRIDAY...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW DISCONTINUATION
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE IN WARRANTED. SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET UNDER A VERY
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...AND DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS OF 8-9
SECONDS. MAINLY PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT NE WIND
WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE DECAYS AND DRIFTS E.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY SUN AND THEN SE AND S BY
SUN EVE AND FINALLY SW SUN NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15
KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO AROUND 20 KT LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT SAT INTO SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT LATER SUN
WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO INITIALIZE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN A MODERATELY STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW
REGIME. WIND WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS APPEAR
TO MAKE CRITERIA (6FT). A PRETTY SHARP VEER IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS HOWEVER AS THE POST-FRONTAL
GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL. TUESDAY`S DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY NWRLY WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL FIND THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/RJD/MBB





000
FXUS62 KILM 172257
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
657 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 657 PM FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY JUST NICKEL AND DIME CHANGES TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST IN TWEAKING T/TD...AND LINING CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS TO NEAR TERM GRIDDED DATA. DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY AID
IN DIMINISHING OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
INTERIOR...WHILE THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO -RA SPREADING IN
FROM WSW FROM HIGHER CLOUD BASES...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE
IMPULSE GUIDED IN THE H7-H5 WIND FLOW. WILL MONITOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AND HOURLY RAIN-RATE TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF A HIGH END
SCATTERED OR LIKELY POP VALUES WILL BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT...BUT SO
FAR UPSTREAM RAIN BUCKETS ONLY REGISTERING TRACE TO 0.01 AMOUNTS
PER HOUR. THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL VERY GRADUALLY FILL AND SAG LAZILY
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FLAT
PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD OVERALL. CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD BRING MINIMUMS INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. PATCHY LIGHT MIST OUGHT TO
BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE ON SAT WILL BE
DEEPEST NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD...HIGHEST INLAND. WILL CARRY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND SAT
MORNING... LIKELY...WITH CHANCE NEARER TO THE COAST. THE BUILDING
RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND THUS
IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHOW POPS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY BY EVE. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING SAT
AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE EVE. AS
THE TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...A MORE POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT SAT...MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN PIECES ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N...WILL STALL TO OUR N ON
SUN. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. AS A DEEP MOISTURE FEED RESUMES ON STRENGTHENING S TO SW
FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR SUN. POPS WILL TREND LOWER DURING SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE START OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
THE BUSIEST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION
BEING SUPPLIED SOME DEEPER LIFT BY SHORTWAVE-LADEN CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW AROUND LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES. FRONT AND ITS
ASSOC MOISTURE APPEAR TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO RAPID DROP IN RAIN CHANCES THOUGH THE LINGERING UPPER
ENERGY MAKES A 100 PERCENT DRY FORECAST TOUGH TO PROMISE. THE CAA
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE TEMPERED SO TEMP DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO WILL BE MINIMAL. THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES BEYOND
THE MONDAY NIGHT DRYING BUT A PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY CALL FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH
INLAND BY TAF TIME...WITH ONLY A VCSH MENTION ALONG THE COAST.
INLAND LOOK FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...THEN
DIMINISHING DIURNALLY. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...A
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEPT VISIBILITY MVFR IN SHOWERS...BUT THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR...AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CREEPING UP.
SATURDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 657 PM FRIDAY...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW DISCONTINUATION
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE IN WARRANTED. SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET UNDER A VERY
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...AND DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS OF 8-9
SECONDS. MAINLY PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT NE WIND
WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE DECAYS AND DRIFTS E.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY SUN AND THEN SE AND S BY
SUN EVE AND FINALLY SW SUN NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15
KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO AROUND 20 KT LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT SAT INTO SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT LATER SUN
WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO INITIALIZE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN A MODERATELY STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW
REGIME. WIND WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS APPEAR
TO MAKE CRITERIA (6FT). A PRETTY SHARP VEER IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS HOWEVER AS THE POST-FRONTAL
GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL. TUESDAY`S DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY NWRLY WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL FIND THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/RJD/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 171923
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO SATURDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER AND THEN PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...FINALLY BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED
AS THE WEDGE CONFIGURATION CONTINUES TO RELAX UNDER THE SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF WEST PATTERN ALOFT. THE BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONE COMPLICATION.
THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...IS SHOWING
A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HESITANT TO GO ALL IN WITH THIS FEATURE AS THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN NUMEROUS FALSE ALARMS VIA SIMILAR
FEATURES. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONSENSUS WITH THIS ONE HOWEVER
AND ACTIVITY TO THE WEST GIVES IT MORE CREDENCE. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER INLAND WILL
CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE ON SAT WILL BE
DEEPEST NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD...HIGHEST INLAND. WILL CARRY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND SAT
MORNING... LIKELY...WITH CHANCE NEARER TO THE COAST. THE BUILDING
RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND THUS
IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHOW POPS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY BY EVE. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING SAT
AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE EVE. AS
THE TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...A MORE POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT SAT...MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN PIECES ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N...WILL STALL TO OUR N ON
SUN. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. AS A DEEP MOISTURE FEED RESUMES ON STRENGTHENING S TO SW
FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR SUN. POPS WILL TREND LOWER DURING SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE START OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
THE BUSIEST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION
BEING SUPPLIED SOME DEEPER LIFT BY SHORTWAVE-LADEN CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW AROUND LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES. FRONT AND ITS
ASSOC MOISTURE APPEAR TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO RAPID DROP IN RAIN CHANCES THOUGH THE LINGERING UPPER
ENERGY MAKES A 100 PERCENT DRY FORECAST TOUGH TO PROMISE. THE CAA
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE TEMPERED SO TEMP DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO WILL BE MINIMAL. THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES BEYOND
THE MONDAY NIGHT DRYING BUT A PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY CALL FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH
INLAND BY TAF TIME...WITH ONLY A VCSH MENTION ALONG THE COAST.
INLAND LOOK FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...THEN
DIMINISHING DIURNALLY. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...A
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEPT VISIBILITY MVFR IN SHOWERS...BUT THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR...AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CREEPING UP.
SATURDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE RESIDUAL HIGHER
SEAS THAT HAVE WARRANTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE FALLEN
ENOUGH TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS WITH
THE LATEST PACKAGE. WILL ISSUE A SCEC FOR THE SAME WATERS UNTIL 6
PM.

I HAVE ALSO ISSUED A VERY BRIEF MWS TO ADDRESS LOW WATER LEVELS AT
BEACH. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET UNDER A VERY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY SUN AND THEN SE AND S BY
SUN EVE AND FINALLY SW SUN NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15
KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO AROUND 20 KT LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT SAT INTO SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT LATER SUN
WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO INITIALIZE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN A MODERATELY STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW
REGIME. WIND WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS APPEAR
TO MAKE CRITERIA (6FT). A PRETTY SHARP VEER IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS HOWEVER AS THE POST-FRONTAL
GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL. TUESDAY`S DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY NWRLY WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL FIND THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK/DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 171923
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO SATURDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER AND THEN PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...FINALLY BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED
AS THE WEDGE CONFIGURATION CONTINUES TO RELAX UNDER THE SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF WEST PATTERN ALOFT. THE BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONE COMPLICATION.
THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...IS SHOWING
A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HESITANT TO GO ALL IN WITH THIS FEATURE AS THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN NUMEROUS FALSE ALARMS VIA SIMILAR
FEATURES. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONSENSUS WITH THIS ONE HOWEVER
AND ACTIVITY TO THE WEST GIVES IT MORE CREDENCE. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER INLAND WILL
CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE ON SAT WILL BE
DEEPEST NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD...HIGHEST INLAND. WILL CARRY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND SAT
MORNING... LIKELY...WITH CHANCE NEARER TO THE COAST. THE BUILDING
RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND THUS
IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHOW POPS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY BY EVE. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING SAT
AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE EVE. AS
THE TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...A MORE POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT SAT...MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN PIECES ON SUN. AT THE SURFACE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N...WILL STALL TO OUR N ON
SUN. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. AS A DEEP MOISTURE FEED RESUMES ON STRENGTHENING S TO SW
FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR SUN. POPS WILL TREND LOWER DURING SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE START OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
THE BUSIEST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION
BEING SUPPLIED SOME DEEPER LIFT BY SHORTWAVE-LADEN CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW AROUND LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES. FRONT AND ITS
ASSOC MOISTURE APPEAR TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO RAPID DROP IN RAIN CHANCES THOUGH THE LINGERING UPPER
ENERGY MAKES A 100 PERCENT DRY FORECAST TOUGH TO PROMISE. THE CAA
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE TEMPERED SO TEMP DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO WILL BE MINIMAL. THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES BEYOND
THE MONDAY NIGHT DRYING BUT A PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY CALL FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH
INLAND BY TAF TIME...WITH ONLY A VCSH MENTION ALONG THE COAST.
INLAND LOOK FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...THEN
DIMINISHING DIURNALLY. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...A
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEPT VISIBILITY MVFR IN SHOWERS...BUT THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR...AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CREEPING UP.
SATURDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE RESIDUAL HIGHER
SEAS THAT HAVE WARRANTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE FALLEN
ENOUGH TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS WITH
THE LATEST PACKAGE. WILL ISSUE A SCEC FOR THE SAME WATERS UNTIL 6
PM.

I HAVE ALSO ISSUED A VERY BRIEF MWS TO ADDRESS LOW WATER LEVELS AT
BEACH. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET UNDER A VERY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY SUN AND THEN SE AND S BY
SUN EVE AND FINALLY SW SUN NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15
KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO AROUND 20 KT LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT SAT INTO SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT LATER SUN
WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO INITIALIZE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN A MODERATELY STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW
REGIME. WIND WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS APPEAR
TO MAKE CRITERIA (6FT). A PRETTY SHARP VEER IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS HOWEVER AS THE POST-FRONTAL
GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL. TUESDAY`S DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY NWRLY WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL FIND THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK/DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 171721
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
121 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN LATER SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED AS
THE WEDGE CONFIGURATION CONTINUES TO RELAX UNDER THE SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF WEST PATTERN ALOFT. THE BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONE COMPLICATION.
THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...IS SHOWING
A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HESITANT TO GO ALL IN WITH THIS FEATURE AS THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN NUMEROUS FALSE ALARMS VIA SIMILAR
FEATURES. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONSENSUS WITH THIS ONE HOWEVER
AND ACTIVITY TO THE WEST GIVES IT MORE CREDENCE. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER INLAND WILL
CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL
OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THIS PERIOD. THE
ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
ILM CWA DURING SAT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND MAINLY
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT TO A
MINIMUM AND WILL ONLY INDICATE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM
CWA SAT NIGHT...AND FINALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SUN THRU SUN
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO PANNING
OUT. A POTENT S/W MID-LEVEL TROF OR ONE COULD CALL IT A
CLIPPER...WILL DIVE SE AND RACE ACROSS THE NE STATES SAT...AND
OFFSHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL BACKDOOR THE ILM CWA ON SUN
FOLLOWED BY A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH THRU SUN
NIGHT. POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IF ANY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE CENTRAL U.S. CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND HOOK ONTO A
S/W UPPER TROF DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. LOOK FOR AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE FA COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE SUN. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BECOME WELL TAPPED BY MID TO LATE SUN. A S/W MID-
LEVEL TROF ROTATING THRU THE WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FA BY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...
WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OR POSSIBLY
CATEGORICAL...BY AND DURING SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD...WILL GO WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WHICH IS BASICALLY 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS...AND 50S TO AROUND
60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A WELL AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF...WITH
THE UPPER TROF N-S AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD.
ITS ONLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHEN MODELS WANT
TO FLATTEN THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MODELS DIVERGING FROM ONE
ANOTHER FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS BY THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...THE PCPN FROM SUN NIGHT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH
ACROSS THE ILM CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH IDLEST CHANCE POPS
BEING ADVERTISED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES TUE THRU MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS COULD END UP FINALLY BEING A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
ILM CWA.

AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO NOT SEE ANY INFLUENCE OF
COOL OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR MASSES AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH
INLAND BY TAF TIME...WITH ONLY A VCSH MENTION ALONG THE COAST.
INLAND LOOK FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...THEN
DIMINISHING DIURNALLY. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...A
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEPT VISIBILITY MVFR IN SHOWERS...BUT THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR...AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CREEPING UP.
SATURDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS
THAT HAVE WARRANTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH TO
CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS WITH THE LATEST
PACKAGE. WILL ISSUE A SCEC FOR THE SAME WATERS UNTIL 6 PM.

I HAVE ALSO ISSUED A VERY BRIEF MWS TO ADDRESS LOW WATER LEVELS AT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL CONTINE TO FALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET UNDER A VERY LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAY TO START OFF WITH A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY AND DURING
SAT NIGHT...A BACKDOOR CUP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE CUP...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH NE WINDS REACHING SCEC OR POSSIBLY SCA THRESHOLDS LATE SAT
INTO EARLY SUN. A COASTAL FRONT/TROF WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME
ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE SUN...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE E THEN SE BY LATE SUN. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AND
COULD SEE WINDS AGAIN REACH SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CAPITALIZE ON A DECENT FETCH RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS
BUILDING FROM LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...AND LIKELY REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COULD ARGUE THAT A SFC WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ILM WATERS COME MONDAY MORNING.
THUS THE STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AT REDUCED SPEEDS
AS THE SFC PG RELAXES SOME. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
GRADIENT ROOTEDNESS AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BY
DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE W-NW
AS RIDGING FROM WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AFFECTS THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. MODELS NOW INDICATE A
SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT OR SFC TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER VEER THE WINDS TO THE NW-N.
SCEC OR SCA THRESHOLDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD...FADING QUICKLY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
PEAK DURING MONDAY...THAN WILL INDICATE A SUBSIDING TREND THERE-
AFTER AS WINDS VEER TO EVENTUALLY AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY BY LATE
TUE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 171721
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
121 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN LATER SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED AS
THE WEDGE CONFIGURATION CONTINUES TO RELAX UNDER THE SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF WEST PATTERN ALOFT. THE BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONE COMPLICATION.
THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...IS SHOWING
A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HESITANT TO GO ALL IN WITH THIS FEATURE AS THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN NUMEROUS FALSE ALARMS VIA SIMILAR
FEATURES. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONSENSUS WITH THIS ONE HOWEVER
AND ACTIVITY TO THE WEST GIVES IT MORE CREDENCE. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER INLAND WILL
CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL
OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THIS PERIOD. THE
ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
ILM CWA DURING SAT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND MAINLY
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT TO A
MINIMUM AND WILL ONLY INDICATE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM
CWA SAT NIGHT...AND FINALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SUN THRU SUN
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO PANNING
OUT. A POTENT S/W MID-LEVEL TROF OR ONE COULD CALL IT A
CLIPPER...WILL DIVE SE AND RACE ACROSS THE NE STATES SAT...AND
OFFSHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL BACKDOOR THE ILM CWA ON SUN
FOLLOWED BY A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH THRU SUN
NIGHT. POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IF ANY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE CENTRAL U.S. CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND HOOK ONTO A
S/W UPPER TROF DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. LOOK FOR AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE FA COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE SUN. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BECOME WELL TAPPED BY MID TO LATE SUN. A S/W MID-
LEVEL TROF ROTATING THRU THE WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FA BY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...
WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OR POSSIBLY
CATEGORICAL...BY AND DURING SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD...WILL GO WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WHICH IS BASICALLY 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS...AND 50S TO AROUND
60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A WELL AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF...WITH
THE UPPER TROF N-S AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD.
ITS ONLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHEN MODELS WANT
TO FLATTEN THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MODELS DIVERGING FROM ONE
ANOTHER FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS BY THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...THE PCPN FROM SUN NIGHT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH
ACROSS THE ILM CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH IDLEST CHANCE POPS
BEING ADVERTISED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES TUE THRU MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS COULD END UP FINALLY BEING A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
ILM CWA.

AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO NOT SEE ANY INFLUENCE OF
COOL OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR MASSES AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH
INLAND BY TAF TIME...WITH ONLY A VCSH MENTION ALONG THE COAST.
INLAND LOOK FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...THEN
DIMINISHING DIURNALLY. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...A
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEPT VISIBILITY MVFR IN SHOWERS...BUT THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR...AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CREEPING UP.
SATURDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS
THAT HAVE WARRANTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH TO
CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS WITH THE LATEST
PACKAGE. WILL ISSUE A SCEC FOR THE SAME WATERS UNTIL 6 PM.

I HAVE ALSO ISSUED A VERY BRIEF MWS TO ADDRESS LOW WATER LEVELS AT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL CONTINE TO FALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET UNDER A VERY LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAY TO START OFF WITH A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY AND DURING
SAT NIGHT...A BACKDOOR CUP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE CUP...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH NE WINDS REACHING SCEC OR POSSIBLY SCA THRESHOLDS LATE SAT
INTO EARLY SUN. A COASTAL FRONT/TROF WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME
ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE SUN...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE E THEN SE BY LATE SUN. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AND
COULD SEE WINDS AGAIN REACH SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CAPITALIZE ON A DECENT FETCH RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS
BUILDING FROM LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...AND LIKELY REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COULD ARGUE THAT A SFC WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ILM WATERS COME MONDAY MORNING.
THUS THE STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AT REDUCED SPEEDS
AS THE SFC PG RELAXES SOME. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
GRADIENT ROOTEDNESS AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BY
DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE W-NW
AS RIDGING FROM WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AFFECTS THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. MODELS NOW INDICATE A
SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT OR SFC TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER VEER THE WINDS TO THE NW-N.
SCEC OR SCA THRESHOLDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD...FADING QUICKLY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
PEAK DURING MONDAY...THAN WILL INDICATE A SUBSIDING TREND THERE-
AFTER AS WINDS VEER TO EVENTUALLY AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY BY LATE
TUE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 171427
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1027 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN LATER SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY NEAR WILMINGTON HAS
BEEN A LITTLE HEAVIER. HRRR AND LATEST NAM SHOW A CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL IN THEIR RESPECTIVE MODELS WHICH SHOW SHOWERS INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE. FORECAST
EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE LATEST NAM IS A LITTLE LESS
ROBUST BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE 1200 UTC GFS ARRIVES TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL
OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THIS PERIOD. THE
ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
ILM CWA DURING SAT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND MAINLY
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT TO A
MINIMUM AND WILL ONLY INDICATE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM
CWA SAT NIGHT...AND FINALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SUN THRU SUN
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO PANNING
OUT. A POTENT S/W MID-LEVEL TROF OR ONE COULD CALL IT A
CLIPPER...WILL DIVE SE AND RACE ACROSS THE NE STATES SAT...AND
OFFSHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL BACKDOOR THE ILM CWA ON SUN
FOLLOWED BY A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH THRU SUN
NIGHT. POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IF ANY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE CENTRAL U.S. CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND HOOK ONTO A
S/W UPPER TROF DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. LOOK FOR AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE FA COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE SUN. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BECOME WELL TAPPED BY MID TO LATE SUN. A S/W MID-
LEVEL TROF ROTATING THRU THE WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FA BY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...
WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OR POSSIBLY
CATEGORICAL...BY AND DURING SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD...WILL GO WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WHICH IS BASICALLY 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS...AND 50S TO AROUND
60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A WELL AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF...WITH
THE UPPER TROF N-S AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD.
ITS ONLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHEN MODELS WANT
TO FLATTEN THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MODELS DIVERGING FROM ONE
ANOTHER FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS BY THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...THE PCPN FROM SUN NIGHT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH
ACROSS THE ILM CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH IDLEST CHANCE POPS
BEING ADVERTISED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES TUE THRU MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS COULD END UP FINALLY BEING A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
ILM CWA.

AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO NOT SEE ANY INFLUENCE OF
COOL OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR MASSES AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE TERMINALS...BUT A SMALL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS. TONIGHT...A MORE ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO IFR...BUT WILL KEEP PREDOMINATELY MVFR AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ON THE WAY DOWN THIS MORNING
WITH JMPN7 REPORTING EIGHT KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS AT 41110
NOW BELOW FIVE FEET. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH HEADLINES EXPIRING
AS THE DAY PROCEDES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAY TO START OFF WITH A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY AND DURING
SAT NIGHT...A BACKDOOR CUP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE CUP...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH NE WINDS REACHING SCEC OR POSSIBLY SCA THRESHOLDS LATE SAT
INTO EARLY SUN. A COASTAL FRONT/TROF WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME
ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE SUN...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE E THEN SE BY LATE SUN. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AND
COULD SEE WINDS AGAIN REACH SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CAPITALIZE ON A DECENT FETCH RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS
BUILDING FROM LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...AND LIKELY REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COULD ARGUE THAT A SFC WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ILM WATERS COME MONDAY MORNING.
THUS THE STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AT REDUCED SPEEDS
AS THE SFC PG RELAXES SOME. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
GRADIENT ROOTEDNESS AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BY
DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE W-NW
AS RIDGING FROM WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AFFECTS THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. MODELS NOW INDICATE A
SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT OR SFC TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER VEER THE WINDS TO THE NW-N.
SCEC OR SCA THRESHOLDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD...FADING QUICKLY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
PEAK DURING MONDAY...THAN WILL INDICATE A SUBSIDING TREND THERE-
AFTER AS WINDS VEER TO EVENTUALLY AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY BY LATE
TUE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...HDL





000
FXUS62 KILM 171038
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
638 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND BACKDOOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL FOLLOW AND WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT WITH VERY PATCHY DRIZZLE SPREADING
INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH DAYBREAK
AS A WEAK WEDGE STYLE PATTERN OVER EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
BREAK DOWN WHILE A LOW CENTER MEANDERS ABOUT OFFSHORE. ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEDGE/OFFSHORE LOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A LIKELY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WET
VS DRY ARE RELATIVE TERMS IN THIS CASE...AS EVEN IN AREAS WHERE
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED WE ARE EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF QPF DUE TO WEAK FORCING. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES BY TO
OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY SO WILL KEEP IN BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER OUR SC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES
US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL
OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THIS PERIOD. THE
ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
ILM CWA DURING SAT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND MAINLY
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT TO A
MINIMUM AND WILL ONLY INDICATE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM
CWA SAT NIGHT...AND FINALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SUN THRU SUN
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO PANNING
OUT. A POTENT S/W MID-LEVEL TROF OR ONE COULD CALL IT A
CLIPPER...WILL DIVE SE AND RACE ACROSS THE NE STATES SAT...AND
OFFSHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL BACKDOOR THE ILM CWA ON SUN
FOLLOWED BY A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH THRU SUN
NIGHT. POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IF ANY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE CENTRAL U.S. CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND HOOK ONTO A
S/W UPPER TROF DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. LOOK FOR AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE FA COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE SUN. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BECOME WELL TAPPED BY MID TO LATE SUN. A S/W MID-
LEVEL TROF ROTATING THRU THE WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FA BY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...
WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OR POSSIBLY
CATEGORICAL...BY AND DURING SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD...WILL GO WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WHICH IS BASICALLY 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS...AND 50S TO AROUND
60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A WELL AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF...WITH
THE UPPER TROF N-S AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD.
ITS ONLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHEN MODELS WANT
TO FLATTEN THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MODELS DIVERGING FROM ONE
ANOTHER FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS BY THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...THE PCPN FROM SUN NIGHT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH
ACROSS THE ILM CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH IDLEST CHANCE POPS
BEING ADVERTISED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES TUE THRU MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS COULD END UP FINALLY BEING A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
ILM CWA.

AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO NOT SEE ANY INFLUENCE OF
COOL OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR MASSES AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE TERMINALS...BUT A SMALL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS. TONIGHT...A MORE ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO IFR...BUT WILL KEEP PREDOMINATELY MVFR AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR
NC WATERS AND THROUGH NOON FOR OUR SC WATERS AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS EAST OF THE WATERS. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE STARTING
AROUND NOON...DROPPING TO 10 KTS OR BELOW BY MID-AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE WITH NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAY TO START OFF WITH A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY AND DURING
SAT NIGHT...A BACKDOOR CUP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE CUP...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH NE WINDS REACHING SCEC OR POSSIBLY SCA THRESHOLDS LATE SAT
INTO EARLY SUN. A COASTAL FRONT/TROF WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME
ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE SUN...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE E THEN SE BY LATE SUN. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AND
COULD SEE WINDS AGAIN REACH SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CAPITALIZE ON A DECENT FETCH RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS
BUILDING FROM LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...AND LIKELY REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COULD ARGUE THAT A SFC WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ILM WATERS COME MONDAY MORNING.
THUS THE STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AT REDUCED SPEEDS
AS THE SFC PG RELAXES SOME. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
GRADIENT ROOTEDNESS AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BY
DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE W-NW
AS RIDGING FROM WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AFFECTS THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. MODELS NOW INDICATE A
SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT OR SFC TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER VEER THE WINDS TO THE NW-N.
SCEC OR SCA THRESHOLDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD...FADING QUICKLY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
PEAK DURING MONDAY...THAN WILL INDICATE A SUBSIDING TREND THERE-
AFTER AS WINDS VEER TO EVENTUALLY AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY BY LATE
TUE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...43
MARINE...DCH/REK





000
FXUS62 KILM 171038
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
638 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND BACKDOOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL FOLLOW AND WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT WITH VERY PATCHY DRIZZLE SPREADING
INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH DAYBREAK
AS A WEAK WEDGE STYLE PATTERN OVER EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
BREAK DOWN WHILE A LOW CENTER MEANDERS ABOUT OFFSHORE. ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEDGE/OFFSHORE LOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A LIKELY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WET
VS DRY ARE RELATIVE TERMS IN THIS CASE...AS EVEN IN AREAS WHERE
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED WE ARE EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF QPF DUE TO WEAK FORCING. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES BY TO
OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY SO WILL KEEP IN BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER OUR SC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES
US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL
OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THIS PERIOD. THE
ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
ILM CWA DURING SAT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND MAINLY
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT TO A
MINIMUM AND WILL ONLY INDICATE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM
CWA SAT NIGHT...AND FINALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SUN THRU SUN
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO PANNING
OUT. A POTENT S/W MID-LEVEL TROF OR ONE COULD CALL IT A
CLIPPER...WILL DIVE SE AND RACE ACROSS THE NE STATES SAT...AND
OFFSHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL BACKDOOR THE ILM CWA ON SUN
FOLLOWED BY A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH THRU SUN
NIGHT. POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IF ANY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE CENTRAL U.S. CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND HOOK ONTO A
S/W UPPER TROF DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. LOOK FOR AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE FA COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE SUN. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BECOME WELL TAPPED BY MID TO LATE SUN. A S/W MID-
LEVEL TROF ROTATING THRU THE WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FA BY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...
WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OR POSSIBLY
CATEGORICAL...BY AND DURING SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD...WILL GO WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WHICH IS BASICALLY 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS...AND 50S TO AROUND
60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A WELL AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF...WITH
THE UPPER TROF N-S AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD.
ITS ONLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHEN MODELS WANT
TO FLATTEN THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MODELS DIVERGING FROM ONE
ANOTHER FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS BY THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...THE PCPN FROM SUN NIGHT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH
ACROSS THE ILM CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH IDLEST CHANCE POPS
BEING ADVERTISED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES TUE THRU MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS COULD END UP FINALLY BEING A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
ILM CWA.

AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO NOT SEE ANY INFLUENCE OF
COOL OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR MASSES AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE TERMINALS...BUT A SMALL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS. TONIGHT...A MORE ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO IFR...BUT WILL KEEP PREDOMINATELY MVFR AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR
NC WATERS AND THROUGH NOON FOR OUR SC WATERS AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS EAST OF THE WATERS. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE STARTING
AROUND NOON...DROPPING TO 10 KTS OR BELOW BY MID-AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE WITH NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAY TO START OFF WITH A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY AND DURING
SAT NIGHT...A BACKDOOR CUP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE CUP...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH NE WINDS REACHING SCEC OR POSSIBLY SCA THRESHOLDS LATE SAT
INTO EARLY SUN. A COASTAL FRONT/TROF WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME
ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE SUN...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE E THEN SE BY LATE SUN. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AND
COULD SEE WINDS AGAIN REACH SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CAPITALIZE ON A DECENT FETCH RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS
BUILDING FROM LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...AND LIKELY REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COULD ARGUE THAT A SFC WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ILM WATERS COME MONDAY MORNING.
THUS THE STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AT REDUCED SPEEDS
AS THE SFC PG RELAXES SOME. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
GRADIENT ROOTEDNESS AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BY
DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE W-NW
AS RIDGING FROM WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AFFECTS THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. MODELS NOW INDICATE A
SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT OR SFC TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER VEER THE WINDS TO THE NW-N.
SCEC OR SCA THRESHOLDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD...FADING QUICKLY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
PEAK DURING MONDAY...THAN WILL INDICATE A SUBSIDING TREND THERE-
AFTER AS WINDS VEER TO EVENTUALLY AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY BY LATE
TUE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...43
MARINE...DCH/REK




000
FXUS62 KILM 171038
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
638 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND BACKDOOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL FOLLOW AND WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT WITH VERY PATCHY DRIZZLE SPREADING
INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH DAYBREAK
AS A WEAK WEDGE STYLE PATTERN OVER EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
BREAK DOWN WHILE A LOW CENTER MEANDERS ABOUT OFFSHORE. ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEDGE/OFFSHORE LOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A LIKELY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WET
VS DRY ARE RELATIVE TERMS IN THIS CASE...AS EVEN IN AREAS WHERE
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED WE ARE EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF QPF DUE TO WEAK FORCING. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES BY TO
OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY SO WILL KEEP IN BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER OUR SC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES
US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL
OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THIS PERIOD. THE
ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
ILM CWA DURING SAT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND MAINLY
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT TO A
MINIMUM AND WILL ONLY INDICATE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM
CWA SAT NIGHT...AND FINALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SUN THRU SUN
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO PANNING
OUT. A POTENT S/W MID-LEVEL TROF OR ONE COULD CALL IT A
CLIPPER...WILL DIVE SE AND RACE ACROSS THE NE STATES SAT...AND
OFFSHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL BACKDOOR THE ILM CWA ON SUN
FOLLOWED BY A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH THRU SUN
NIGHT. POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IF ANY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE CENTRAL U.S. CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND HOOK ONTO A
S/W UPPER TROF DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. LOOK FOR AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE FA COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE SUN. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BECOME WELL TAPPED BY MID TO LATE SUN. A S/W MID-
LEVEL TROF ROTATING THRU THE WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FA BY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...
WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OR POSSIBLY
CATEGORICAL...BY AND DURING SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD...WILL GO WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WHICH IS BASICALLY 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS...AND 50S TO AROUND
60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A WELL AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF...WITH
THE UPPER TROF N-S AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD.
ITS ONLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHEN MODELS WANT
TO FLATTEN THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MODELS DIVERGING FROM ONE
ANOTHER FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS BY THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...THE PCPN FROM SUN NIGHT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH
ACROSS THE ILM CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH IDLEST CHANCE POPS
BEING ADVERTISED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES TUE THRU MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS COULD END UP FINALLY BEING A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
ILM CWA.

AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO NOT SEE ANY INFLUENCE OF
COOL OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR MASSES AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE TERMINALS...BUT A SMALL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS. TONIGHT...A MORE ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO IFR...BUT WILL KEEP PREDOMINATELY MVFR AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR
NC WATERS AND THROUGH NOON FOR OUR SC WATERS AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS EAST OF THE WATERS. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE STARTING
AROUND NOON...DROPPING TO 10 KTS OR BELOW BY MID-AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE WITH NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAY TO START OFF WITH A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY AND DURING
SAT NIGHT...A BACKDOOR CUP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE CUP...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH NE WINDS REACHING SCEC OR POSSIBLY SCA THRESHOLDS LATE SAT
INTO EARLY SUN. A COASTAL FRONT/TROF WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME
ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE SUN...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE E THEN SE BY LATE SUN. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AND
COULD SEE WINDS AGAIN REACH SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CAPITALIZE ON A DECENT FETCH RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS
BUILDING FROM LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...AND LIKELY REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COULD ARGUE THAT A SFC WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ILM WATERS COME MONDAY MORNING.
THUS THE STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AT REDUCED SPEEDS
AS THE SFC PG RELAXES SOME. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
GRADIENT ROOTEDNESS AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BY
DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE W-NW
AS RIDGING FROM WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AFFECTS THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. MODELS NOW INDICATE A
SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT OR SFC TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER VEER THE WINDS TO THE NW-N.
SCEC OR SCA THRESHOLDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD...FADING QUICKLY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
PEAK DURING MONDAY...THAN WILL INDICATE A SUBSIDING TREND THERE-
AFTER AS WINDS VEER TO EVENTUALLY AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY BY LATE
TUE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...43
MARINE...DCH/REK





000
FXUS62 KILM 171014
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
614 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND BACKDOOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL FOLLOW AND WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT WITH VERY PATCHY DRIZZLE SPREADING
INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH DAYBREAK
AS A WEAK WEDGE STYLE PATTERN OVER EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
BREAK DOWN WHILE A LOW CENTER MEANDERS ABOUT OFFSHORE. ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEDGE/OFFSHORE LOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A LIKELY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WET
VS DRY ARE RELATIVE TERMS IN THIS CASE...AS EVEN IN AREAS WHERE
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED WE ARE EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF QPF DUE TO WEAK FORCING. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES BY TO
OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY SO WILL KEEP IN BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER OUR SC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES
US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL
OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THIS PERIOD. THE
ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
ILM CWA DURING SAT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND MAINLY
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT TO A
MINIMUM AND WILL ONLY INDICATE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM
CWA SAT NIGHT...AND FINALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SUN THRU SUN
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO PANNING
OUT. A POTENT S/W MID-LEVEL TROF OR ONE COULD CALL IT A
CLIPPER...WILL DIVE SE AND RACE ACROSS THE NE STATES SAT...AND
OFFSHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL BACKDOOR THE ILM CWA ON SUN
FOLLOWED BY A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH THRU SUN
NIGHT. POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IF ANY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE CENTRAL U.S. CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND HOOK ONTO A
S/W UPPER TROF DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. LOOK FOR AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE FA COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE SUN. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BECOME WELL TAPPED BY MID TO LATE SUN. A S/W MID-
LEVEL TROF ROTATING THRU THE WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FA BY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...
WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OR POSSIBLY
CATEGORICAL...BY AND DURING SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD...WILL GO WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WHICH IS BASICALLY 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS...AND 50S TO AROUND
60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A WELL AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF...WITH
THE UPPER TROF N-S AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD.
ITS ONLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHEN MODELS WANT
TO FLATTEN THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MODELS DIVERGING FROM ONE
ANOTHER FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS BY THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...THE PCPN FROM SUN NIGHT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH
ACROSS THE ILM CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH IDLEST CHANCE POPS
BEING ADVERTISED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES TUE THRU MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS COULD END UP FINALLY BEING A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
ILM CWA.

AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO NOT SEE ANY INFLUENCE OF
COOL OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR MASSES AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
CIGS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY VFR AT KILM...VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT KLBT...MVFR
AT KFLO/KMYR AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE. LOWEST CIGS AROUND LIFR ARE
OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN KCRE AND KILM
ALONG WITH TEMPO 1-4SM VSBYS.

EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK OF IFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
JUST OFFSHORE. IF RAIN CAN SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND IFR CIGS WILL ALSO
AFFECT KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS MORNING. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY
BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR
BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR
NC WATERS AND THROUGH NOON FOR OUR SC WATERS AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS EAST OF THE WATERS. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE STARTING
AROUND NOON...DROPPING TO 10 KTS OR BELOW BY MID-AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE WITH NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAY TO START OFF WITH A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY AND DURING
SAT NIGHT...A BACKDOOR CUP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE CUP...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH NE WINDS REACHING SCEC OR POSSIBLY SCA THRESHOLDS LATE SAT
INTO EARLY SUN. A COASTAL FRONT/TROF WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME
ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE SUN...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE E THEN SE BY LATE SUN. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AND
COULD SEE WINDS AGAIN REACH SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CAPITALIZE ON A DECENT FETCH RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS
BUILDING FROM LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...AND LIKELY REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COULD ARGUE THAT A SFC WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ILM WATERS COME MONDAY MORNING.
THUS THE STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AT REDUCED SPEEDS
AS THE SFC PG RELAXES SOME. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
GRADIENT ROOTEDNESS AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BY
DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE W-NW
AS RIDGING FROM WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AFFECTS THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. MODELS NOW INDICATE A
SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT OR SFC TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER VEER THE WINDS TO THE NW-N.
SCEC OR SCA THRESHOLDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD...FADING QUICKLY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
PEAK DURING MONDAY...THAN WILL INDICATE A SUBSIDING TREND THERE-
AFTER AS WINDS VEER TO EVENTUALLY AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY BY LATE
TUE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...DCH/REK




000
FXUS62 KILM 171014
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
614 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND BACKDOOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL FOLLOW AND WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT WITH VERY PATCHY DRIZZLE SPREADING
INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH DAYBREAK
AS A WEAK WEDGE STYLE PATTERN OVER EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
BREAK DOWN WHILE A LOW CENTER MEANDERS ABOUT OFFSHORE. ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEDGE/OFFSHORE LOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A LIKELY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WET
VS DRY ARE RELATIVE TERMS IN THIS CASE...AS EVEN IN AREAS WHERE
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED WE ARE EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF QPF DUE TO WEAK FORCING. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES BY TO
OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY SO WILL KEEP IN BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER OUR SC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES
US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL
OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THIS PERIOD. THE
ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
ILM CWA DURING SAT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND MAINLY
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT TO A
MINIMUM AND WILL ONLY INDICATE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM
CWA SAT NIGHT...AND FINALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SUN THRU SUN
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO PANNING
OUT. A POTENT S/W MID-LEVEL TROF OR ONE COULD CALL IT A
CLIPPER...WILL DIVE SE AND RACE ACROSS THE NE STATES SAT...AND
OFFSHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL BACKDOOR THE ILM CWA ON SUN
FOLLOWED BY A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH THRU SUN
NIGHT. POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IF ANY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE CENTRAL U.S. CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND HOOK ONTO A
S/W UPPER TROF DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. LOOK FOR AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE FA COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE SUN. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BECOME WELL TAPPED BY MID TO LATE SUN. A S/W MID-
LEVEL TROF ROTATING THRU THE WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FA BY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...
WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OR POSSIBLY
CATEGORICAL...BY AND DURING SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD...WILL GO WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WHICH IS BASICALLY 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS...AND 50S TO AROUND
60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A WELL AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF...WITH
THE UPPER TROF N-S AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD.
ITS ONLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHEN MODELS WANT
TO FLATTEN THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MODELS DIVERGING FROM ONE
ANOTHER FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS BY THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...THE PCPN FROM SUN NIGHT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH
ACROSS THE ILM CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH IDLEST CHANCE POPS
BEING ADVERTISED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES TUE THRU MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS COULD END UP FINALLY BEING A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
ILM CWA.

AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO NOT SEE ANY INFLUENCE OF
COOL OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR MASSES AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
CIGS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY VFR AT KILM...VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT KLBT...MVFR
AT KFLO/KMYR AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE. LOWEST CIGS AROUND LIFR ARE
OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN KCRE AND KILM
ALONG WITH TEMPO 1-4SM VSBYS.

EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK OF IFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
JUST OFFSHORE. IF RAIN CAN SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND IFR CIGS WILL ALSO
AFFECT KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS MORNING. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY
BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR
BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR
NC WATERS AND THROUGH NOON FOR OUR SC WATERS AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS EAST OF THE WATERS. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE STARTING
AROUND NOON...DROPPING TO 10 KTS OR BELOW BY MID-AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE WITH NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAY TO START OFF WITH A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY AND DURING
SAT NIGHT...A BACKDOOR CUP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE CUP...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH NE WINDS REACHING SCEC OR POSSIBLY SCA THRESHOLDS LATE SAT
INTO EARLY SUN. A COASTAL FRONT/TROF WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME
ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE SUN...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE E THEN SE BY LATE SUN. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AND
COULD SEE WINDS AGAIN REACH SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CAPITALIZE ON A DECENT FETCH RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS
BUILDING FROM LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...AND LIKELY REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COULD ARGUE THAT A SFC WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ILM WATERS COME MONDAY MORNING.
THUS THE STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AT REDUCED SPEEDS
AS THE SFC PG RELAXES SOME. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
GRADIENT ROOTEDNESS AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BY
DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE W-NW
AS RIDGING FROM WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AFFECTS THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. MODELS NOW INDICATE A
SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT OR SFC TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER VEER THE WINDS TO THE NW-N.
SCEC OR SCA THRESHOLDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD...FADING QUICKLY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
PEAK DURING MONDAY...THAN WILL INDICATE A SUBSIDING TREND THERE-
AFTER AS WINDS VEER TO EVENTUALLY AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY BY LATE
TUE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...DCH/REK





000
FXUS62 KILM 171014
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
614 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND BACKDOOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL FOLLOW AND WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT WITH VERY PATCHY DRIZZLE SPREADING
INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH DAYBREAK
AS A WEAK WEDGE STYLE PATTERN OVER EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
BREAK DOWN WHILE A LOW CENTER MEANDERS ABOUT OFFSHORE. ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEDGE/OFFSHORE LOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A LIKELY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WET
VS DRY ARE RELATIVE TERMS IN THIS CASE...AS EVEN IN AREAS WHERE
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED WE ARE EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF QPF DUE TO WEAK FORCING. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES BY TO
OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY SO WILL KEEP IN BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER OUR SC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES
US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL
OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THIS PERIOD. THE
ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
ILM CWA DURING SAT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND MAINLY
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT TO A
MINIMUM AND WILL ONLY INDICATE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM
CWA SAT NIGHT...AND FINALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SUN THRU SUN
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO PANNING
OUT. A POTENT S/W MID-LEVEL TROF OR ONE COULD CALL IT A
CLIPPER...WILL DIVE SE AND RACE ACROSS THE NE STATES SAT...AND
OFFSHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL BACKDOOR THE ILM CWA ON SUN
FOLLOWED BY A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH THRU SUN
NIGHT. POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IF ANY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE CENTRAL U.S. CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND HOOK ONTO A
S/W UPPER TROF DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. LOOK FOR AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE FA COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE SUN. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BECOME WELL TAPPED BY MID TO LATE SUN. A S/W MID-
LEVEL TROF ROTATING THRU THE WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FA BY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...
WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OR POSSIBLY
CATEGORICAL...BY AND DURING SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD...WILL GO WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WHICH IS BASICALLY 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS...AND 50S TO AROUND
60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A WELL AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF...WITH
THE UPPER TROF N-S AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD.
ITS ONLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHEN MODELS WANT
TO FLATTEN THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MODELS DIVERGING FROM ONE
ANOTHER FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS BY THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...THE PCPN FROM SUN NIGHT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH
ACROSS THE ILM CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH IDLEST CHANCE POPS
BEING ADVERTISED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES TUE THRU MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS COULD END UP FINALLY BEING A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
ILM CWA.

AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO NOT SEE ANY INFLUENCE OF
COOL OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR MASSES AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
CIGS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY VFR AT KILM...VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT KLBT...MVFR
AT KFLO/KMYR AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE. LOWEST CIGS AROUND LIFR ARE
OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN KCRE AND KILM
ALONG WITH TEMPO 1-4SM VSBYS.

EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK OF IFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
JUST OFFSHORE. IF RAIN CAN SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND IFR CIGS WILL ALSO
AFFECT KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS MORNING. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY
BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR
BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR
NC WATERS AND THROUGH NOON FOR OUR SC WATERS AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS EAST OF THE WATERS. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE STARTING
AROUND NOON...DROPPING TO 10 KTS OR BELOW BY MID-AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE WITH NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAY TO START OFF WITH A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY AND DURING
SAT NIGHT...A BACKDOOR CUP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE CUP...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH NE WINDS REACHING SCEC OR POSSIBLY SCA THRESHOLDS LATE SAT
INTO EARLY SUN. A COASTAL FRONT/TROF WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME
ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE SUN...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE E THEN SE BY LATE SUN. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AND
COULD SEE WINDS AGAIN REACH SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CAPITALIZE ON A DECENT FETCH RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS
BUILDING FROM LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...AND LIKELY REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COULD ARGUE THAT A SFC WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ILM WATERS COME MONDAY MORNING.
THUS THE STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AT REDUCED SPEEDS
AS THE SFC PG RELAXES SOME. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
GRADIENT ROOTEDNESS AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BY
DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE W-NW
AS RIDGING FROM WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AFFECTS THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. MODELS NOW INDICATE A
SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT OR SFC TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER VEER THE WINDS TO THE NW-N.
SCEC OR SCA THRESHOLDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD...FADING QUICKLY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
PEAK DURING MONDAY...THAN WILL INDICATE A SUBSIDING TREND THERE-
AFTER AS WINDS VEER TO EVENTUALLY AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY BY LATE
TUE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...DCH/REK





000
FXUS62 KILM 171014
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
614 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND BACKDOOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL FOLLOW AND WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT WITH VERY PATCHY DRIZZLE SPREADING
INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH DAYBREAK
AS A WEAK WEDGE STYLE PATTERN OVER EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
BREAK DOWN WHILE A LOW CENTER MEANDERS ABOUT OFFSHORE. ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEDGE/OFFSHORE LOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A LIKELY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WET
VS DRY ARE RELATIVE TERMS IN THIS CASE...AS EVEN IN AREAS WHERE
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED WE ARE EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF QPF DUE TO WEAK FORCING. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES BY TO
OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY SO WILL KEEP IN BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER OUR SC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES
US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL
OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THIS PERIOD. THE
ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
ILM CWA DURING SAT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND MAINLY
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT TO A
MINIMUM AND WILL ONLY INDICATE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM
CWA SAT NIGHT...AND FINALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SUN THRU SUN
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO PANNING
OUT. A POTENT S/W MID-LEVEL TROF OR ONE COULD CALL IT A
CLIPPER...WILL DIVE SE AND RACE ACROSS THE NE STATES SAT...AND
OFFSHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL BACKDOOR THE ILM CWA ON SUN
FOLLOWED BY A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH THRU SUN
NIGHT. POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IF ANY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE CENTRAL U.S. CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND HOOK ONTO A
S/W UPPER TROF DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. LOOK FOR AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE FA COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE SUN. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BECOME WELL TAPPED BY MID TO LATE SUN. A S/W MID-
LEVEL TROF ROTATING THRU THE WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FA BY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...
WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OR POSSIBLY
CATEGORICAL...BY AND DURING SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD...WILL GO WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WHICH IS BASICALLY 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS...AND 50S TO AROUND
60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A WELL AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF...WITH
THE UPPER TROF N-S AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD.
ITS ONLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHEN MODELS WANT
TO FLATTEN THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MODELS DIVERGING FROM ONE
ANOTHER FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS BY THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...THE PCPN FROM SUN NIGHT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH
ACROSS THE ILM CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH IDLEST CHANCE POPS
BEING ADVERTISED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES TUE THRU MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS COULD END UP FINALLY BEING A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
ILM CWA.

AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO NOT SEE ANY INFLUENCE OF
COOL OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR MASSES AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
CIGS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY VFR AT KILM...VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT KLBT...MVFR
AT KFLO/KMYR AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE. LOWEST CIGS AROUND LIFR ARE
OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN KCRE AND KILM
ALONG WITH TEMPO 1-4SM VSBYS.

EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK OF IFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
JUST OFFSHORE. IF RAIN CAN SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND IFR CIGS WILL ALSO
AFFECT KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS MORNING. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY
BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR
BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR
NC WATERS AND THROUGH NOON FOR OUR SC WATERS AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS EAST OF THE WATERS. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE STARTING
AROUND NOON...DROPPING TO 10 KTS OR BELOW BY MID-AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE WITH NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAY TO START OFF WITH A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY AND DURING
SAT NIGHT...A BACKDOOR CUP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE CUP...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH NE WINDS REACHING SCEC OR POSSIBLY SCA THRESHOLDS LATE SAT
INTO EARLY SUN. A COASTAL FRONT/TROF WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME
ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE SUN...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE E THEN SE BY LATE SUN. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AND
COULD SEE WINDS AGAIN REACH SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CAPITALIZE ON A DECENT FETCH RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS
BUILDING FROM LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...AND LIKELY REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COULD ARGUE THAT A SFC WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ILM WATERS COME MONDAY MORNING.
THUS THE STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AT REDUCED SPEEDS
AS THE SFC PG RELAXES SOME. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
GRADIENT ROOTEDNESS AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BY
DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE W-NW
AS RIDGING FROM WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AFFECTS THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. MODELS NOW INDICATE A
SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT OR SFC TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER VEER THE WINDS TO THE NW-N.
SCEC OR SCA THRESHOLDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD...FADING QUICKLY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
PEAK DURING MONDAY...THAN WILL INDICATE A SUBSIDING TREND THERE-
AFTER AS WINDS VEER TO EVENTUALLY AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY BY LATE
TUE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...DCH/REK




000
FXUS62 KILM 170754
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
354 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND BACKDOOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL FOLLOW AND WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT WITH VERY PATCHY
DRIZZLE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A WEAK WEDGE STYLE PATTERN OVER EASTERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN WHILE A LOW CENTER MEANDERS ABOUT
OFFSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEDGE/OFFSHORE LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A LIKELY
DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WET VS DRY ARE RELATIVE TERMS IN THIS
CASE...AS EVEN IN AREAS WHERE LOW CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED WE ARE
EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF DUE TO WEAK FORCING. WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE BRUSHES BY TO OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY SO WILL KEEP IN
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER OUR SC COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL
OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THIS PERIOD. THE
ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
ILM CWA DURING SAT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND MAINLY
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT TO A
MINIMUM AND WILL ONLY INDICATE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM
CWA SAT NIGHT...AND FINALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SUN THRU SUN
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO PANNING
OUT. A POTENT S/W MID-LEVEL TROF OR ONE COULD CALL IT A
CLIPPER...WILL DIVE SE AND RACE ACROSS THE NE STATES SAT...AND
OFFSHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL BACKDOOR THE ILM CWA ON SUN
FOLLOWED BY A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH THRU SUN
NIGHT. POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IF ANY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE CENTRAL U.S. CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND HOOK ONTO A
S/W UPPER TROF DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. LOOK FOR AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE FA COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE SUN. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BECOME WELL TAPPED BY MID TO LATE SUN. A S/W MID-
LEVEL TROF ROTATING THRU THE WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FA BY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...
WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OR POSSIBLY
CATEGORICAL...BY AND DURING SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD...WILL GO WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WHICH IS BASICALLY 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS...AND 50S TO AROUND
60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A WELL AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF...WITH
THE UPPER TROF N-S AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD.
ITS ONLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHEN MODELS WANT
TO FLATTEN THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MODELS DIVERGING FROM ONE
ANOTHER FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS BY THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...THE PCPN FROM SUN NIGHT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH
ACROSS THE ILM CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH ATLEAST CHANCE POPS
BEING ADVERTISED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES TUE THRU MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS COULD END UP FINALLY BEING A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
ILM CWA.

AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO NOT SEE ANY INFLUENCE OF
COOL OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR MASSES AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
CIGS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY VFR AT KILM...VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT KLBT...MVFR
AT KFLO/KMYR AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE. LOWEST CIGS AROUND LIFR ARE
OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN KCRE AND KILM
ALONG WITH TEMPO 1-4SM VSBYS.

EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK OF IFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
JUST OFFSHORE. IF RAIN CAN SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND IFR CIGS WILL ALSO
AFFECT KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS MORNING. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY
BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR
BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR NC WATERS AND THROUGH NOON FOR OUR SC
WATERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS EAST OF THE WATERS.
THIS LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST LATER
TODAY...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE STARTING AROUND NOON...DROPPING TO 10 KTS OR BELOW BY
MID-AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE WITH NO FLAGS EXPECTED
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAY TO START OFF WITH A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY AND DURING
SAT NIGHT...A BACKDOOR CFP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE CFP...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH NE WINDS REACHING SCEC OR POSSIBLY SCA THRESHOLDS LATE SAT
INTO EARLY SUN. A COASTAL FRONT/TROF WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME
ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE SUN...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE E THEN SE BY LATE SUN. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AND
COULD SEE WINDS AGAIN REACH SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CAPITALIZE ON A DECENT FETCH RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS
BUILDING FROM LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...AND LIKELY REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COULD ARGUE THAT A SFC WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ILM WATERS COME MONDAY MORNING.
THUS THE STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AT REDUCED SPEEDS
AS THE SFC PG RELAXES SOME. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
GRADIENT RETIGHTENS AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BY
DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE W-NW
AS RIDGING FROM WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AFFECTS THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. MODELS NOW INDICATE A
SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT OR SFC TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER VEER THE WINDS TO THE NW-N.
SCEC OR SCA THRESHOLDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD...FADING QUICKLY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
PEAK DURING MONDAY...THAN WILL INDICATE A SUBSIDING TREND THERE-
AFTER AS WINDS VEER TO EVENTUALLY AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY BY LATE
TUE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 170754
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
354 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND BACKDOOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL FOLLOW AND WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT WITH VERY PATCHY
DRIZZLE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A WEAK WEDGE STYLE PATTERN OVER EASTERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN WHILE A LOW CENTER MEANDERS ABOUT
OFFSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEDGE/OFFSHORE LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A LIKELY
DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WET VS DRY ARE RELATIVE TERMS IN THIS
CASE...AS EVEN IN AREAS WHERE LOW CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED WE ARE
EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF DUE TO WEAK FORCING. WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE BRUSHES BY TO OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY SO WILL KEEP IN
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER OUR SC COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL
OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THIS PERIOD. THE
ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
ILM CWA DURING SAT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND MAINLY
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT TO A
MINIMUM AND WILL ONLY INDICATE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM
CWA SAT NIGHT...AND FINALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS SUN THRU SUN
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO PANNING
OUT. A POTENT S/W MID-LEVEL TROF OR ONE COULD CALL IT A
CLIPPER...WILL DIVE SE AND RACE ACROSS THE NE STATES SAT...AND
OFFSHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL BACKDOOR THE ILM CWA ON SUN
FOLLOWED BY A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH THRU SUN
NIGHT. POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IF ANY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE CENTRAL U.S. CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND HOOK ONTO A
S/W UPPER TROF DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. LOOK FOR AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE FA COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE SUN. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BECOME WELL TAPPED BY MID TO LATE SUN. A S/W MID-
LEVEL TROF ROTATING THRU THE WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FA BY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...
WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OR POSSIBLY
CATEGORICAL...BY AND DURING SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD...WILL GO WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WHICH IS BASICALLY 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS...AND 50S TO AROUND
60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A WELL AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF...WITH
THE UPPER TROF N-S AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD.
ITS ONLY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHEN MODELS WANT
TO FLATTEN THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MODELS DIVERGING FROM ONE
ANOTHER FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS BY THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...THE PCPN FROM SUN NIGHT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH
ACROSS THE ILM CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH ATLEAST CHANCE POPS
BEING ADVERTISED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES TUE THRU MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS COULD END UP FINALLY BEING A PERIOD OF DRYING OUT ACROSS THE
ILM CWA.

AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DO NOT SEE ANY INFLUENCE OF
COOL OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR MASSES AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
CIGS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY VFR AT KILM...VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT KLBT...MVFR
AT KFLO/KMYR AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE. LOWEST CIGS AROUND LIFR ARE
OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN KCRE AND KILM
ALONG WITH TEMPO 1-4SM VSBYS.

EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK OF IFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
JUST OFFSHORE. IF RAIN CAN SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND IFR CIGS WILL ALSO
AFFECT KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS MORNING. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY
BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR
BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR NC WATERS AND THROUGH NOON FOR OUR SC
WATERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS EAST OF THE WATERS.
THIS LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST LATER
TODAY...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE STARTING AROUND NOON...DROPPING TO 10 KTS OR BELOW BY
MID-AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE WITH NO FLAGS EXPECTED
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAY TO START OFF WITH A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE DAY AND DURING
SAT NIGHT...A BACKDOOR CFP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE CFP...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH NE WINDS REACHING SCEC OR POSSIBLY SCA THRESHOLDS LATE SAT
INTO EARLY SUN. A COASTAL FRONT/TROF WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME
ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE SUN...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT THE SAME TIME SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE E THEN SE BY LATE SUN. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AND
COULD SEE WINDS AGAIN REACH SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CAPITALIZE ON A DECENT FETCH RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS
BUILDING FROM LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...AND LIKELY REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COULD ARGUE THAT A SFC WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ILM WATERS COME MONDAY MORNING.
THUS THE STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AT REDUCED SPEEDS
AS THE SFC PG RELAXES SOME. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
GRADIENT RETIGHTENS AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BY
DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE W-NW
AS RIDGING FROM WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AFFECTS THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. MODELS NOW INDICATE A
SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT OR SFC TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TUE NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER VEER THE WINDS TO THE NW-N.
SCEC OR SCA THRESHOLDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD...FADING QUICKLY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
PEAK DURING MONDAY...THAN WILL INDICATE A SUBSIDING TREND THERE-
AFTER AS WINDS VEER TO EVENTUALLY AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY BY LATE
TUE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 170514
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
114 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE
INTERIOR IS LOSING STRENGTH. THE CHANGE HAS ALLOWED LOW-LEVEL
WINDS PER THE VAD WIND PROFILE TO VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO SE. WEDGE
AIR MASS REMNANTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE INLAND...AND AS A
BUMP UPWARD IN MOISTURE IS THROWN OVER THIS LAYER SUSPECT PATCHY
OR OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE IS WORTH HOLDING ONTO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST INTO EARLY FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW SE OF THE AREA THAT HAS REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING...BUT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY N
OR NE. LOW QPF EXPECTATIONS OVERNIGHT OVERALL AND NO MAJOR
ALTERATIONS TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED WITH THIS EVENING UPDATE.
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WITH A DECAYING WEDGE WILL DICTATE
OVERNIGHT AND MIN TEMPERATURES...ESSENTIALLY LEVELING OFF OR
SLOWLY DIPPING TO 60-65 ALONG THE COAST AND 54-59 INTERIOR LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT
UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI
MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI
MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT.
WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND
LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE
PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH
BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE
HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A
DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.

THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH
ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
CIGS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY VFR AT KILM...VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT KLBT...MVFR
AT KFLO/KMYR AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE. LOWEST CIGS AROUND LIFR ARE
OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN KCRE AND KILM
ALONG WITH TEMPO 1-4SM VSBYS.

EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK OF IFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
JUST OFFSHORE. IF RAIN CAN SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND IFR CIGS WILL ALSO
AFFECT KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS MORNING. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY
BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR
BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SEAS REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HOLDING JUST UNDER 8 FT.
MODERATELY STRONG ON SHORE FETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
E-SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND
AIDING A LOOSENING LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HOWEVER WITH SEAS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION
OF MONDAY MORNING AND NO CHANGES TO ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST
OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN
VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS.
THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD
BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5
FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW
WINDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/RJD/JDW/RGZ





000
FXUS62 KILM 170514
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
114 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE
INTERIOR IS LOSING STRENGTH. THE CHANGE HAS ALLOWED LOW-LEVEL
WINDS PER THE VAD WIND PROFILE TO VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO SE. WEDGE
AIR MASS REMNANTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE INLAND...AND AS A
BUMP UPWARD IN MOISTURE IS THROWN OVER THIS LAYER SUSPECT PATCHY
OR OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE IS WORTH HOLDING ONTO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST INTO EARLY FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW SE OF THE AREA THAT HAS REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING...BUT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY N
OR NE. LOW QPF EXPECTATIONS OVERNIGHT OVERALL AND NO MAJOR
ALTERATIONS TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED WITH THIS EVENING UPDATE.
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WITH A DECAYING WEDGE WILL DICTATE
OVERNIGHT AND MIN TEMPERATURES...ESSENTIALLY LEVELING OFF OR
SLOWLY DIPPING TO 60-65 ALONG THE COAST AND 54-59 INTERIOR LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT
UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI
MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI
MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT.
WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND
LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE
PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH
BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE
HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A
DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.

THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH
ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
CIGS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY VFR AT KILM...VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT KLBT...MVFR
AT KFLO/KMYR AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE. LOWEST CIGS AROUND LIFR ARE
OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN KCRE AND KILM
ALONG WITH TEMPO 1-4SM VSBYS.

EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK OF IFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
JUST OFFSHORE. IF RAIN CAN SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND IFR CIGS WILL ALSO
AFFECT KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS MORNING. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY
BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR
BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SEAS REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HOLDING JUST UNDER 8 FT.
MODERATELY STRONG ON SHORE FETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
E-SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND
AIDING A LOOSENING LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HOWEVER WITH SEAS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION
OF MONDAY MORNING AND NO CHANGES TO ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST
OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN
VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS.
THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD
BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5
FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW
WINDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/RJD/JDW/RGZ




000
FXUS62 KILM 170514
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
114 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE
INTERIOR IS LOSING STRENGTH. THE CHANGE HAS ALLOWED LOW-LEVEL
WINDS PER THE VAD WIND PROFILE TO VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO SE. WEDGE
AIR MASS REMNANTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE INLAND...AND AS A
BUMP UPWARD IN MOISTURE IS THROWN OVER THIS LAYER SUSPECT PATCHY
OR OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE IS WORTH HOLDING ONTO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST INTO EARLY FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW SE OF THE AREA THAT HAS REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING...BUT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY N
OR NE. LOW QPF EXPECTATIONS OVERNIGHT OVERALL AND NO MAJOR
ALTERATIONS TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED WITH THIS EVENING UPDATE.
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WITH A DECAYING WEDGE WILL DICTATE
OVERNIGHT AND MIN TEMPERATURES...ESSENTIALLY LEVELING OFF OR
SLOWLY DIPPING TO 60-65 ALONG THE COAST AND 54-59 INTERIOR LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT
UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI
MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI
MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT.
WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND
LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE
PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH
BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE
HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A
DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.

THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH
ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
CIGS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY VFR AT KILM...VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT KLBT...MVFR
AT KFLO/KMYR AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE. LOWEST CIGS AROUND LIFR ARE
OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN KCRE AND KILM
ALONG WITH TEMPO 1-4SM VSBYS.

EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK OF IFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
JUST OFFSHORE. IF RAIN CAN SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND IFR CIGS WILL ALSO
AFFECT KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS MORNING. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY
BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR
BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SEAS REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HOLDING JUST UNDER 8 FT.
MODERATELY STRONG ON SHORE FETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
E-SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND
AIDING A LOOSENING LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HOWEVER WITH SEAS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION
OF MONDAY MORNING AND NO CHANGES TO ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST
OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN
VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS.
THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD
BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5
FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW
WINDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/RJD/JDW/RGZ




000
FXUS62 KILM 170514
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
114 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE
INTERIOR IS LOSING STRENGTH. THE CHANGE HAS ALLOWED LOW-LEVEL
WINDS PER THE VAD WIND PROFILE TO VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO SE. WEDGE
AIR MASS REMNANTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE INLAND...AND AS A
BUMP UPWARD IN MOISTURE IS THROWN OVER THIS LAYER SUSPECT PATCHY
OR OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE IS WORTH HOLDING ONTO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST INTO EARLY FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW SE OF THE AREA THAT HAS REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING...BUT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY N
OR NE. LOW QPF EXPECTATIONS OVERNIGHT OVERALL AND NO MAJOR
ALTERATIONS TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED WITH THIS EVENING UPDATE.
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WITH A DECAYING WEDGE WILL DICTATE
OVERNIGHT AND MIN TEMPERATURES...ESSENTIALLY LEVELING OFF OR
SLOWLY DIPPING TO 60-65 ALONG THE COAST AND 54-59 INTERIOR LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT
UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI
MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI
MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT.
WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND
LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE
PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH
BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE
HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A
DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.

THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH
ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
CIGS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY VFR AT KILM...VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT KLBT...MVFR
AT KFLO/KMYR AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE. LOWEST CIGS AROUND LIFR ARE
OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN KCRE AND KILM
ALONG WITH TEMPO 1-4SM VSBYS.

EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK OF IFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
JUST OFFSHORE. IF RAIN CAN SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND IFR CIGS WILL ALSO
AFFECT KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS MORNING. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY
BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR
BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SEAS REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HOLDING JUST UNDER 8 FT.
MODERATELY STRONG ON SHORE FETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
E-SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND
AIDING A LOOSENING LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HOWEVER WITH SEAS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION
OF MONDAY MORNING AND NO CHANGES TO ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST
OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN
VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS.
THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD
BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5
FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW
WINDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/RJD/JDW/RGZ





000
FXUS62 KILM 170212
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1012 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1012 PM THURSDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE INTERIOR IS LOSING STRENGTH. THE CHANGE
HAS ALLOWED LOW-LEVEL WINDS PER THE VAD WIND PROFILE TO VEER
SLIGHTLY MORE TO SE. WEDGE AIR MASS REMNANTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN PLACE INLAND...AND AS A BUMP UPWARD IN MOISTURE IS THROWN OVER
THIS LAYER SUSPECT PATCHY OR OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE IS WORTH HOLDING
ONTO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED CLOSER TO THE
COAST INTO EARLY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW SE OF THE
AREA THAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING...BUT IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY N OR NE. LOW QPF EXPECTATIONS OVERNIGHT
OVERALL AND NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED WITH
THIS EVENING UPDATE. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WITH A DECAYING
WEDGE WILL DICTATE OVERNIGHT AND MIN TEMPERATURES...ESSENTIALLY
LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY DIPPING TO 60-65 ALONG THE COAST AND 54-59
INTERIOR LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT
UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI
MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI
MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT.
WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND
LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE
PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH
BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE
HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A
DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.

THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH
ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW IN
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY KCRE/KMYR. CIGS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY VFR AT KILM AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE/KMYR. MVFR CIGS
ARE OCCURRING FOR THE MOST PART AT KFLO...AND ARE SHOWING A
LOWERING AND BACK FILLING TREND TO THE NE TOWARDS KLBT. TEMPO
1-4SM VSBYS HAVE OCCURRED WITH SHOWERS AT KCRE/KMYR.

EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFFSHORE. TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA/-DZ/BR
WILL BE LIKELY AT KFLO/KCRE/KMYR EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING MORE
PREDOMINANT TOWARDS MID-LATE EVENING. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KLBT/KILM BY 04Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. IFR CIGS WILL
APPROACH LIFR THIS EVENING AT KFLO/KCRE/KMYR AND OVERNIGHT AT
KLBT/KILM BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT
GRADUALLY BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY
CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 PM THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT OVER MOST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGHEST OFFSHORE. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HOLDING
JUST UNDER 8 FT. MODERATELY STRONG ON SHORE FETCH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. E-SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF
OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND AIDING A LOOSENING LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HOWEVER WITH SEAS THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF MONDAY MORNING AND NO CHANGES TO ONGOING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST
OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN
VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS.
THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD
BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5
FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW
WINDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 170212
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1012 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1012 PM THURSDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE INTERIOR IS LOSING STRENGTH. THE CHANGE
HAS ALLOWED LOW-LEVEL WINDS PER THE VAD WIND PROFILE TO VEER
SLIGHTLY MORE TO SE. WEDGE AIR MASS REMNANTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN PLACE INLAND...AND AS A BUMP UPWARD IN MOISTURE IS THROWN OVER
THIS LAYER SUSPECT PATCHY OR OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE IS WORTH HOLDING
ONTO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED CLOSER TO THE
COAST INTO EARLY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW SE OF THE
AREA THAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING...BUT IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY N OR NE. LOW QPF EXPECTATIONS OVERNIGHT
OVERALL AND NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED WITH
THIS EVENING UPDATE. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WITH A DECAYING
WEDGE WILL DICTATE OVERNIGHT AND MIN TEMPERATURES...ESSENTIALLY
LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY DIPPING TO 60-65 ALONG THE COAST AND 54-59
INTERIOR LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT
UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI
MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI
MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT.
WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND
LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE
PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH
BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE
HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A
DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.

THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH
ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW IN
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY KCRE/KMYR. CIGS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY VFR AT KILM AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE/KMYR. MVFR CIGS
ARE OCCURRING FOR THE MOST PART AT KFLO...AND ARE SHOWING A
LOWERING AND BACK FILLING TREND TO THE NE TOWARDS KLBT. TEMPO
1-4SM VSBYS HAVE OCCURRED WITH SHOWERS AT KCRE/KMYR.

EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFFSHORE. TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA/-DZ/BR
WILL BE LIKELY AT KFLO/KCRE/KMYR EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING MORE
PREDOMINANT TOWARDS MID-LATE EVENING. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KLBT/KILM BY 04Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. IFR CIGS WILL
APPROACH LIFR THIS EVENING AT KFLO/KCRE/KMYR AND OVERNIGHT AT
KLBT/KILM BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT
GRADUALLY BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY
CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 PM THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT OVER MOST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGHEST OFFSHORE. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HOLDING
JUST UNDER 8 FT. MODERATELY STRONG ON SHORE FETCH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. E-SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF
OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND AIDING A LOOSENING LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HOWEVER WITH SEAS THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF MONDAY MORNING AND NO CHANGES TO ONGOING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST
OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN
VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS.
THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD
BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5
FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW
WINDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 170212
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1012 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1012 PM THURSDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE INTERIOR IS LOSING STRENGTH. THE CHANGE
HAS ALLOWED LOW-LEVEL WINDS PER THE VAD WIND PROFILE TO VEER
SLIGHTLY MORE TO SE. WEDGE AIR MASS REMNANTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN PLACE INLAND...AND AS A BUMP UPWARD IN MOISTURE IS THROWN OVER
THIS LAYER SUSPECT PATCHY OR OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE IS WORTH HOLDING
ONTO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED CLOSER TO THE
COAST INTO EARLY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW SE OF THE
AREA THAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING...BUT IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY N OR NE. LOW QPF EXPECTATIONS OVERNIGHT
OVERALL AND NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED WITH
THIS EVENING UPDATE. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WITH A DECAYING
WEDGE WILL DICTATE OVERNIGHT AND MIN TEMPERATURES...ESSENTIALLY
LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY DIPPING TO 60-65 ALONG THE COAST AND 54-59
INTERIOR LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT
UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI
MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI
MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT.
WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND
LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE
PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH
BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE
HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A
DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.

THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH
ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW IN
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY KCRE/KMYR. CIGS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY VFR AT KILM AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE/KMYR. MVFR CIGS
ARE OCCURRING FOR THE MOST PART AT KFLO...AND ARE SHOWING A
LOWERING AND BACK FILLING TREND TO THE NE TOWARDS KLBT. TEMPO
1-4SM VSBYS HAVE OCCURRED WITH SHOWERS AT KCRE/KMYR.

EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFFSHORE. TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA/-DZ/BR
WILL BE LIKELY AT KFLO/KCRE/KMYR EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING MORE
PREDOMINANT TOWARDS MID-LATE EVENING. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KLBT/KILM BY 04Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. IFR CIGS WILL
APPROACH LIFR THIS EVENING AT KFLO/KCRE/KMYR AND OVERNIGHT AT
KLBT/KILM BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT
GRADUALLY BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY
CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 PM THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT OVER MOST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGHEST OFFSHORE. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HOLDING
JUST UNDER 8 FT. MODERATELY STRONG ON SHORE FETCH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. E-SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF
OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND AIDING A LOOSENING LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HOWEVER WITH SEAS THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF MONDAY MORNING AND NO CHANGES TO ONGOING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST
OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN
VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS.
THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD
BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5
FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW
WINDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 170003
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
803 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM THURSDAY...NO COLOSSAL MODIFICATIONS REQUIRED WITH
THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THE VAD WIND PROFILE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN STRUCTURE SINCE MIDDAY...SHOWING A 20-30 KT E-ESE WIND FLOW
FROM 1 KFT-8 KFT SUPPLYING A MOISTURE FLUX OVER TOP A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE. WEAK RADAR RETURNS BUT SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
PREVAILS ALONG THE COAST WHILE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS SETTING
OFF -RA ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ROBESON AND BLADEN COUNTIES.
THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CHARLESTON WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY NORTH TO SE AND OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH NET RESULT IN SUSTAINING OR SLIGHTLY BOOSTING
OVERNIGHT COASTAL RAIN CHANCES. SINCE INLAND THE WEDGE IS SLOWLY
ERODING...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT BUT -DZ IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT. THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WITH A
DECAYING WEDGE WILL DICTATE OVERNIGHT AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ESSENTIALLY LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY DIPPING TO 59-64 ALONG THE
COAST AND 54-58 INLAND EAST TO WEST INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT
UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI
MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI
MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT.
WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND
LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE
PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH
BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE
HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A
DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.

THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH
ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW IN
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY KCRE/KMYR. CIGS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY VFR AT KILM AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE/KMYR. MVFR CIGS
ARE OCCURRING FOR THE MOST PART AT KFLO...AND ARE SHOWING A
LOWERING AND BACK FILLING TREND TO THE NE TOWARDS KLBT. TEMPO
1-4SM VSBYS HAVE OCCURRED WITH SHOWERS AT KCRE/KMYR.

EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFFSHORE. TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA/-DZ/BR
WILL BE LIKELY AT KFLO/KCRE/KMYR EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING MORE
PREDOMINANT TOWARDS MID-LATE EVENING. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KLBT/KILM BY 04Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. IFR CIGS WILL
APPROACH LIFR THIS EVENING AT KFLO/KCRE/KMYR AND OVERNIGHT AT
KLBT/KILM BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT
GRADUALLY BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY
CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM THURSDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD OF ON SHORE EASTERLY
FETCH AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT
IN MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WAS UP HOLDING
AROUND 8 FT. MODERATELY STRONG ON SHORE FETCH OVER THE TOP SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUST UP TO 30 KTS SHOULD VEER TO MORE EASTERLY ON TOP SIDE OF
LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT AS LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD CAPE FEAR
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON BACK SIDE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST
OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN
VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS.
THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD
BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5
FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW
WINDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 170003
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
803 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM THURSDAY...NO COLOSSAL MODIFICATIONS REQUIRED WITH
THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THE VAD WIND PROFILE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN STRUCTURE SINCE MIDDAY...SHOWING A 20-30 KT E-ESE WIND FLOW
FROM 1 KFT-8 KFT SUPPLYING A MOISTURE FLUX OVER TOP A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE. WEAK RADAR RETURNS BUT SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
PREVAILS ALONG THE COAST WHILE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS SETTING
OFF -RA ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ROBESON AND BLADEN COUNTIES.
THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CHARLESTON WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY NORTH TO SE AND OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH NET RESULT IN SUSTAINING OR SLIGHTLY BOOSTING
OVERNIGHT COASTAL RAIN CHANCES. SINCE INLAND THE WEDGE IS SLOWLY
ERODING...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT BUT -DZ IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT. THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WITH A
DECAYING WEDGE WILL DICTATE OVERNIGHT AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ESSENTIALLY LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY DIPPING TO 59-64 ALONG THE
COAST AND 54-58 INLAND EAST TO WEST INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT
UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI
MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI
MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT.
WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND
LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE
PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH
BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE
HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A
DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.

THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH
ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW IN
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY KCRE/KMYR. CIGS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY VFR AT KILM AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE/KMYR. MVFR CIGS
ARE OCCURRING FOR THE MOST PART AT KFLO...AND ARE SHOWING A
LOWERING AND BACK FILLING TREND TO THE NE TOWARDS KLBT. TEMPO
1-4SM VSBYS HAVE OCCURRED WITH SHOWERS AT KCRE/KMYR.

EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFFSHORE. TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA/-DZ/BR
WILL BE LIKELY AT KFLO/KCRE/KMYR EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING MORE
PREDOMINANT TOWARDS MID-LATE EVENING. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KLBT/KILM BY 04Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. IFR CIGS WILL
APPROACH LIFR THIS EVENING AT KFLO/KCRE/KMYR AND OVERNIGHT AT
KLBT/KILM BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT
GRADUALLY BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY
CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM THURSDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD OF ON SHORE EASTERLY
FETCH AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT
IN MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WAS UP HOLDING
AROUND 8 FT. MODERATELY STRONG ON SHORE FETCH OVER THE TOP SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUST UP TO 30 KTS SHOULD VEER TO MORE EASTERLY ON TOP SIDE OF
LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT AS LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD CAPE FEAR
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON BACK SIDE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST
OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN
VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS.
THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD
BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5
FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW
WINDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 170003
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
803 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM THURSDAY...NO COLOSSAL MODIFICATIONS REQUIRED WITH
THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THE VAD WIND PROFILE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN STRUCTURE SINCE MIDDAY...SHOWING A 20-30 KT E-ESE WIND FLOW
FROM 1 KFT-8 KFT SUPPLYING A MOISTURE FLUX OVER TOP A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE. WEAK RADAR RETURNS BUT SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
PREVAILS ALONG THE COAST WHILE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS SETTING
OFF -RA ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ROBESON AND BLADEN COUNTIES.
THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CHARLESTON WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY NORTH TO SE AND OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH NET RESULT IN SUSTAINING OR SLIGHTLY BOOSTING
OVERNIGHT COASTAL RAIN CHANCES. SINCE INLAND THE WEDGE IS SLOWLY
ERODING...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT BUT -DZ IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT. THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WITH A
DECAYING WEDGE WILL DICTATE OVERNIGHT AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ESSENTIALLY LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY DIPPING TO 59-64 ALONG THE
COAST AND 54-58 INLAND EAST TO WEST INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT
UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI
MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI
MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT.
WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND
LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE
PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH
BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE
HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A
DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.

THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH
ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A STRONG ENE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WNW IN
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFFECTING MAINLY KCRE/KMYR. CIGS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY VFR AT KILM AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KCRE/KMYR. MVFR CIGS
ARE OCCURRING FOR THE MOST PART AT KFLO...AND ARE SHOWING A
LOWERING AND BACK FILLING TREND TO THE NE TOWARDS KLBT. TEMPO
1-4SM VSBYS HAVE OCCURRED WITH SHOWERS AT KCRE/KMYR.

EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFFSHORE. TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA/-DZ/BR
WILL BE LIKELY AT KFLO/KCRE/KMYR EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING MORE
PREDOMINANT TOWARDS MID-LATE EVENING. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KLBT/KILM BY 04Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. IFR CIGS WILL
APPROACH LIFR THIS EVENING AT KFLO/KCRE/KMYR AND OVERNIGHT AT
KLBT/KILM BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT
GRADUALLY BACKING TO MORE NE TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY
CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR BY MID MORNING WITH VFR DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM THURSDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD OF ON SHORE EASTERLY
FETCH AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT
IN MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WAS UP HOLDING
AROUND 8 FT. MODERATELY STRONG ON SHORE FETCH OVER THE TOP SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUST UP TO 30 KTS SHOULD VEER TO MORE EASTERLY ON TOP SIDE OF
LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT AS LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD CAPE FEAR
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON BACK SIDE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST
OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN
VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS.
THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD
BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5
FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW
WINDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 162240
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM THURSDAY...NO COLOSSAL MODIFICATIONS REQUIRED WITH
THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THE VAD WIND PROFILE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN STRUCTURE SINCE MIDDAY...SHOWING A 20-30 KT E-ESE WIND FLOW
FROM 1 KFT-8 KFT SUPPLYING A MOISTURE FLUX OVER TOP A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE. WEAK RADAR RETURNS BUT SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
PREVAILS ALONG THE COAST WHILE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS SETTING
OFF -RA ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ROBESON AND BLADEN COUNTIES.
THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CHARLESTON WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY NORTH TO SE AND OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH NET RESULT IN SUSTAINING OR SLIGHTLY BOOSTING
OVERNIGHT COASTAL RAIN CHANCES. SINCE INLAND THE WEDGE IS SLOWLY
ERODING...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT BUT -DZ IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT. THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WITH A
DECAYING WEDGE WILL DICTATE OVERNIGHT AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ESSENTIALLY LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY DIPPING TO 59-64 ALONG THE
COAST AND 54-58 INLAND EAST TO WEST INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT
UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI
MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI
MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT.
WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND
LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE
PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH
BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE
HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A
DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.

THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH
ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO NEARLY EASTERLY ALONG THE
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFFSHORE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CONTEND THAT THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY OFFSHORE...AND THINK THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS...WITH LITTLE AVIATION IMPACT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
AROUND FROM SOLID MVFR TO NEAR VFR. TONIGHT...CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TO IFR...HOWEVER MODELS DID NOT GET THAT
RIGHT LAST NIGHT. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...SHIFTING TO
MORE NORTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. FRIDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM THURSDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD OF ON SHORE EASTERLY
FETCH AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT
IN MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WAS UP HOLDING
AROUND 8 FT. MODERATELY STRONG ON SHORE FETCH OVER THE TOP SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUST UP TO 30 KTS SHOULD VEER TO MORE EASTERLY ON TOP SIDE OF
LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT AS LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD CAPE FEAR
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON BACK SIDE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST
OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN
VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS.
THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD
BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5
FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW
WINDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/RJD/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 162240
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM THURSDAY...NO COLOSSAL MODIFICATIONS REQUIRED WITH
THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THE VAD WIND PROFILE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN STRUCTURE SINCE MIDDAY...SHOWING A 20-30 KT E-ESE WIND FLOW
FROM 1 KFT-8 KFT SUPPLYING A MOISTURE FLUX OVER TOP A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE. WEAK RADAR RETURNS BUT SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
PREVAILS ALONG THE COAST WHILE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS SETTING
OFF -RA ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ROBESON AND BLADEN COUNTIES.
THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CHARLESTON WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY NORTH TO SE AND OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH NET RESULT IN SUSTAINING OR SLIGHTLY BOOSTING
OVERNIGHT COASTAL RAIN CHANCES. SINCE INLAND THE WEDGE IS SLOWLY
ERODING...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT BUT -DZ IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT. THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WITH A
DECAYING WEDGE WILL DICTATE OVERNIGHT AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ESSENTIALLY LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY DIPPING TO 59-64 ALONG THE
COAST AND 54-58 INLAND EAST TO WEST INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT
UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI
MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI
MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT.
WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND
LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE
PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH
BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE
HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A
DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.

THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH
ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO NEARLY EASTERLY ALONG THE
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFFSHORE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CONTEND THAT THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY OFFSHORE...AND THINK THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS...WITH LITTLE AVIATION IMPACT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
AROUND FROM SOLID MVFR TO NEAR VFR. TONIGHT...CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TO IFR...HOWEVER MODELS DID NOT GET THAT
RIGHT LAST NIGHT. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...SHIFTING TO
MORE NORTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. FRIDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM THURSDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD OF ON SHORE EASTERLY
FETCH AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT
IN MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WAS UP HOLDING
AROUND 8 FT. MODERATELY STRONG ON SHORE FETCH OVER THE TOP SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUST UP TO 30 KTS SHOULD VEER TO MORE EASTERLY ON TOP SIDE OF
LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT AS LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD CAPE FEAR
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON BACK SIDE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST
OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN
VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS.
THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD
BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5
FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW
WINDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/RJD/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 162240
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM THURSDAY...NO COLOSSAL MODIFICATIONS REQUIRED WITH
THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THE VAD WIND PROFILE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN STRUCTURE SINCE MIDDAY...SHOWING A 20-30 KT E-ESE WIND FLOW
FROM 1 KFT-8 KFT SUPPLYING A MOISTURE FLUX OVER TOP A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE. WEAK RADAR RETURNS BUT SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
PREVAILS ALONG THE COAST WHILE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS SETTING
OFF -RA ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ROBESON AND BLADEN COUNTIES.
THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CHARLESTON WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY NORTH TO SE AND OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH NET RESULT IN SUSTAINING OR SLIGHTLY BOOSTING
OVERNIGHT COASTAL RAIN CHANCES. SINCE INLAND THE WEDGE IS SLOWLY
ERODING...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT BUT -DZ IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT. THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WIND FLOW WITH A
DECAYING WEDGE WILL DICTATE OVERNIGHT AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ESSENTIALLY LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY DIPPING TO 59-64 ALONG THE
COAST AND 54-58 INLAND EAST TO WEST INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT
UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI
MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI
MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT.
WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND
LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE
PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH
BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE
HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A
DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.

THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH
ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO NEARLY EASTERLY ALONG THE
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFFSHORE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CONTEND THAT THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY OFFSHORE...AND THINK THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS...WITH LITTLE AVIATION IMPACT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
AROUND FROM SOLID MVFR TO NEAR VFR. TONIGHT...CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TO IFR...HOWEVER MODELS DID NOT GET THAT
RIGHT LAST NIGHT. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...SHIFTING TO
MORE NORTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. FRIDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM THURSDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD OF ON SHORE EASTERLY
FETCH AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT
IN MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WAS UP HOLDING
AROUND 8 FT. MODERATELY STRONG ON SHORE FETCH OVER THE TOP SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUST UP TO 30 KTS SHOULD VEER TO MORE EASTERLY ON TOP SIDE OF
LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT AS LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD CAPE FEAR
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON BACK SIDE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST
OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN
VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS.
THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD
BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5
FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW
WINDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/RJD/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 161926
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE PERSISTENT WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TIGHTENED
GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THIS
LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
RIGHT UP THROUGH CAPE FEAR WITH A DECENT N-NE COOLER WIND FLOW ON
THE WEST SIDE OF TROUGH AND STRONGER WARMER AND MOISTER EASTERLY
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROUGH. THIS WAS MAINTAINING TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 50S INLAND AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING WEDGE TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLEVIATE THE SHARP TROUGHING
AND FLATTEN THE FLOW A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING PRODUCING MORE OF
AN E-NE FLOW PENETRATING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MOISTER AIR INLAND. ISENTROPIC LIFT
INLAND WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAIN AREA OF PCP INLAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LIFT WILL MOVE OUT OF AREA AS SEEN BY CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE NC COAST OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS
ON THE BACK END WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL JET AND SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT
FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE AREA LOWERING THE
CHC OF PCP. BUT...AS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO CAPE FEAR COAST TOWARD
MORNING...SOME BETTER LIFT AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE PCP
ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD SEE BEST CHC OF PCP MAINLY COASTAL
AREAS...BUT MODELS SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT PCP REMAINING TO THE
NORTH OF LOW WHERE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE. THE LOW
SHOULD BE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE TIP OF
CAPE FEAR BY DAYBREAK.

OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAKENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT INLAND SHOULD PRODUCE DIMINISHING PCP CHANCES AND
SOME DRYING WHILE GREATER PCP CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH CAROLINA COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK.CLOUDS
AND MOIST E-NE FLOW WILL PRODUCE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT
UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI
MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI
MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT.
WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND
LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE
PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH
BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE
HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A
DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.

THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH
ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO NEARLY EASTERLY ALONG THE
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFFSHORE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CONTEND THAT THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY OFFSHORE...AND THINK THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS...WITH LITTLE AVIATION IMPACT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
AROUND FROM SOLID MVFR TO NEAR VFR. TONIGHT...CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TO IFR...HOWEVER MODELS DID NOT GET THAT
RIGHT LAST NIGHT. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...SHIFTING TO
MORE NORTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. FRIDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD OF ON SHORE EASTERLY
FETCH AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 7 TO 9 FT
IN MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WAS UP HOLDING
AROUND 10 FT THIS AFTERNOON. WNA MODEL SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
BUT STRONGER ON SHORE FETCH OVER THE TOP SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUST UP
TO 30 KTS SHOULD VEER TO MORE EASTERLY ON TOP SIDE OF LOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT AS LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD CAPE FEAR COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
ON BACK SIDE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST
OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN
VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS.
THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD
BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5
FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW
WINDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 161926
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE PERSISTENT WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TIGHTENED
GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THIS
LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
RIGHT UP THROUGH CAPE FEAR WITH A DECENT N-NE COOLER WIND FLOW ON
THE WEST SIDE OF TROUGH AND STRONGER WARMER AND MOISTER EASTERLY
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROUGH. THIS WAS MAINTAINING TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 50S INLAND AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING WEDGE TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLEVIATE THE SHARP TROUGHING
AND FLATTEN THE FLOW A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING PRODUCING MORE OF
AN E-NE FLOW PENETRATING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MOISTER AIR INLAND. ISENTROPIC LIFT
INLAND WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAIN AREA OF PCP INLAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LIFT WILL MOVE OUT OF AREA AS SEEN BY CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE NC COAST OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS
ON THE BACK END WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL JET AND SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT
FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE AREA LOWERING THE
CHC OF PCP. BUT...AS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO CAPE FEAR COAST TOWARD
MORNING...SOME BETTER LIFT AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE PCP
ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD SEE BEST CHC OF PCP MAINLY COASTAL
AREAS...BUT MODELS SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT PCP REMAINING TO THE
NORTH OF LOW WHERE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE. THE LOW
SHOULD BE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE TIP OF
CAPE FEAR BY DAYBREAK.

OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAKENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT INLAND SHOULD PRODUCE DIMINISHING PCP CHANCES AND
SOME DRYING WHILE GREATER PCP CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH CAROLINA COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK.CLOUDS
AND MOIST E-NE FLOW WILL PRODUCE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT
UP THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST STATES FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST FRI
MORNING AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COASTAL TROUGH IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRI
MORNING WITH A RISK FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE FAVORED FRI AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY MAINLY TO OUR S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
END FRI EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES...ALTHOUGH DAMPENING...ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SAT NIGHT.
WILL SHOW A RISK OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL UP IN THE 70S FRI AND
LOWER 80S SAT. THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT
COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WARM BUT POTENTIALLY VERY WET START TO THE
PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH
BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY CONTINUED SW FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE FIRST PORTION OF
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW WILL HELP TO DRIVE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE...AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FORECAST PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...WHICH WOULD TOP THE
HIGHEST MEASURED FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO THE NEW SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS LIMITED (SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA)...STRONG PVA COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS NEAR-RECORD-MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OCCUR...AND HAVE BUMPED POP TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE BEST RAINFALL WILL END EARLY MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL OF MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN ESSENCE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF A
DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.

THEREAFTER...LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND SPINS ACROSS THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
W/SW LOCALLY PRECIP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. TEMP ADVECTION WITH
ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS ALSO WEAK...SO TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BUT WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO NEARLY EASTERLY ALONG THE
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFFSHORE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CONTEND THAT THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY OFFSHORE...AND THINK THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS...WITH LITTLE AVIATION IMPACT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
AROUND FROM SOLID MVFR TO NEAR VFR. TONIGHT...CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TO IFR...HOWEVER MODELS DID NOT GET THAT
RIGHT LAST NIGHT. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...SHIFTING TO
MORE NORTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. FRIDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD OF ON SHORE EASTERLY
FETCH AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 7 TO 9 FT
IN MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WAS UP HOLDING
AROUND 10 FT THIS AFTERNOON. WNA MODEL SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
BUT STRONGER ON SHORE FETCH OVER THE TOP SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUST UP
TO 30 KTS SHOULD VEER TO MORE EASTERLY ON TOP SIDE OF LOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT AS LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD CAPE FEAR COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
ON BACK SIDE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO FRI. WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST
OVER 6 FT DURING THE MORNING. SIX FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KT FRI MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES...THUS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN FURTHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS...WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO NW FRI NIGHT AND THEN
VEER TO N AND NE SAT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
SAT NIGHT AS A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 20-25 KTS.
THESE INCREASED WINDS ON THE LONGER OCEAN FETCH WILL DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE WATERS DURING TUESDAY SO WINDS COULD
BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BEFORE THIS FRONT GETS A PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS LATE MONDAY WILL REMAIN 3-5
FT...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY...AND THEN EVEN FURTHER ON NW
WINDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 161853
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
253 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE PERSISTENT WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TIGHTENED
GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THIS
LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
RIGHT UP THROUGH CAPE FEAR WITH A DECENT N-NE COOLER WIND FLOW ON
THE WEST SIDE OF TROUGH AND STRONGER WARMER AND MOISTER EASTERLY
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROUGH. THIS WAS MAINTAINING TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 50S INLAND AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING WEDGE TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLEVIATE THE SHARP TROUGHING
AND FLATTEN THE FLOW A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING PRODUCING MORE OF
AN E-NE FLOW PENETRATING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MOISTER AIR INLAND. ISENTROPIC LIFT
INLAND WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAIN AREA OF PCP INLAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LIFT WILL MOVE OUT OF AREA AS SEEN BY CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE NC COAST OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS
ON THE BACK END WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL JET AND SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT
FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE AREA LOWERING THE
CHC OF PCP. BUT...AS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO CAPE FEAR COAST TOWARD
MORNING...SOME BETTER LIFT AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE PCP
ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD SEE BEST CHC OF PCP MAINLY COASTAL
AREAS...BUT MODELS SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT PCP REMAINING TO THE
NORTH OF LOW WHERE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE. THE LOW
SHOULD BE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE TIP OF
CAPE FEAR BY DAYBREAK.

OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAKENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT INLAND SHOULD PRODUCE DIMINISHING PCP CHANCES AND
SOME DRYING WHILE GREATER PCP CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH CAROLINA COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK.CLOUDS
AND MOIST E-NE FLOW WILL PRODUCE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK DRIER AND DRIER WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO. COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE WAVE FRI AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE UNDER 5H RIDGE BUILDING NORTH SAT WILL WORK TO
KEEP THE REGION DRY. DO THINK SLIGHT CHC TO CHC IS WARRANTED FOR
FIRST PART OF FRI GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY THIS WAVE WILL BE
OFF THE COAST WITH A DRYING TREND ON ITS HEELS.

BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH
SUBSIDENCE HELPING CLEAR SKIES. SOME GUIDANCE STILL HOLDING ONTO THE
IDEA OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY INLAND ON SAT...BUT THE
TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE RECENTLY HAS BEEN TO DRY OUT SAT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND THERE IS A
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL FEATURES. WHILE THE WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE DO NOT THINK CONVECTION WILL BE
ABLE TO GAIN MUCH DEPTH.

5H RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STARTS MAKING ITS WAY EAST. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT...SETTING
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW. ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED AT THE SURFACE
COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TAP WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT PRECIP MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE END
OF THE PERIOD...A FUNCTION OF LITTLE FORCING. ALTHOUGH PRECIP
CHANCES SAT NIGHT WILL BE LIMITED DO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...STACKED LOW EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ABSORBED INTO 5H TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA NEXT WEEK. AS THE STACKED SOUTHWEST LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ON SUN IT LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP
MOISTURE DOES EXIST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BUT THE FRONT
ARRIVES SUN NIGHT. TIMING LIMITS INSTABILITY BUT THERE WILL BE A
35 TO 40 KT LLJ AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. THERE WILL BE SOME PVA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BUT
WONDER HOW MUCH GULF COAST CONVECTION WILL INHIBIT ACTIVITY IN THE
CAPE FEAR REGION. NOT LOOKING FOR STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER SUN NIGHT
BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A DECENT BET. HAVE TRENDED DOWN
POP SUN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...BUT PLAN TO MAINTAIN LIKELY
POP SUN NIGHT.

DRY SLOT SPREADS OVER THE AREA MON BRINGING AN END TO ALL
MEANINGFUL PRECIP BY MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HELP MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON NIGHT WITH THE LOCAL AREA DRYING OUT ON TUE. LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO TUE.
SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUE NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A
LITTLE MORE COLD ADVECTION. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO. CURRENTLY APPEARS BOTH FRONTS WILL PASS DRY...AS EACH LACKS
DEEP MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO NEARLY EASTERLY ALONG THE COAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFFSHORE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CONTEND
THAT THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
OFFSHORE...AND THINK THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THE COASTAL
TERMINALS COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH LITTLE AVIATION
IMPACT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND FROM SOLID MVFR TO NEAR
VFR. TONIGHT...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TO IFR...HOWEVER
MODELS DID NOT GET THAT RIGHT LAST NIGHT. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...SHIFTING TO MORE NORTHEAST TOWARD MORNING.
FRIDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD OF ON SHORE EASTERLY
FETCH AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 7 TO 9 FT
IN MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WAS UP HOLDING
AROUND 10 FT THIS AFTERNOON. WNA MODEL SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
BUT STRONGER ON SHORE FETCH OVER THE TOP SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUST UP
TO 30 KTS SHOULD VEER TO MORE EASTERLY ON TOP SIDE OF LOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT AS LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD CAPE FEAR COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
ON BACK SIDE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COASTAL WAVE/LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FRI MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY GRADIENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BUT AS THE HIGH TAKES CONTROL AND
THE LOW EXITS SPEEDS WILL DROP UNDER 10 KT. ELONGATED SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS FRI NIGHT WILL BECOME EAST LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT GRADIENT AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP SAT. SEAS FLIRTING WITH HEADLINE
CRITERIA FRI MORNING WILL QUICKLY FALL BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...ENDING UP 2 TO 4 FT FRI AFTERNOON AND 2 TO 3 FT SAT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH NORTH AND EAST OF
THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WATERS
SUN. PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LATER SUN OR SUN NIGHT WILL VEER WINDS
TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT BUT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SPEEDS EXCEEDING 20 KT AT TIMES. GRADIENT RELAXES
A LITTLE ON MON WITH SPEEDS DROPPING CLOSER TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL
PEAK SUN NIGHT...TOPPING OUT AT 3 TO 5 FT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEADLINES SUN NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 161853
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
253 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE PERSISTENT WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TIGHTENED
GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THIS
LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
RIGHT UP THROUGH CAPE FEAR WITH A DECENT N-NE COOLER WIND FLOW ON
THE WEST SIDE OF TROUGH AND STRONGER WARMER AND MOISTER EASTERLY
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROUGH. THIS WAS MAINTAINING TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 50S INLAND AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING WEDGE TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLEVIATE THE SHARP TROUGHING
AND FLATTEN THE FLOW A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING PRODUCING MORE OF
AN E-NE FLOW PENETRATING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MOISTER AIR INLAND. ISENTROPIC LIFT
INLAND WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAIN AREA OF PCP INLAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LIFT WILL MOVE OUT OF AREA AS SEEN BY CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE NC COAST OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS
ON THE BACK END WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL JET AND SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT
FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE AREA LOWERING THE
CHC OF PCP. BUT...AS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO CAPE FEAR COAST TOWARD
MORNING...SOME BETTER LIFT AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE PCP
ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD SEE BEST CHC OF PCP MAINLY COASTAL
AREAS...BUT MODELS SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT PCP REMAINING TO THE
NORTH OF LOW WHERE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE. THE LOW
SHOULD BE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE TIP OF
CAPE FEAR BY DAYBREAK.

OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAKENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT INLAND SHOULD PRODUCE DIMINISHING PCP CHANCES AND
SOME DRYING WHILE GREATER PCP CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH CAROLINA COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK.CLOUDS
AND MOIST E-NE FLOW WILL PRODUCE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK DRIER AND DRIER WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO. COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE WAVE FRI AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE UNDER 5H RIDGE BUILDING NORTH SAT WILL WORK TO
KEEP THE REGION DRY. DO THINK SLIGHT CHC TO CHC IS WARRANTED FOR
FIRST PART OF FRI GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY THIS WAVE WILL BE
OFF THE COAST WITH A DRYING TREND ON ITS HEELS.

BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH
SUBSIDENCE HELPING CLEAR SKIES. SOME GUIDANCE STILL HOLDING ONTO THE
IDEA OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY INLAND ON SAT...BUT THE
TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE RECENTLY HAS BEEN TO DRY OUT SAT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND THERE IS A
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL FEATURES. WHILE THE WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE DO NOT THINK CONVECTION WILL BE
ABLE TO GAIN MUCH DEPTH.

5H RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STARTS MAKING ITS WAY EAST. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT...SETTING
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW. ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED AT THE SURFACE
COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TAP WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT PRECIP MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE END
OF THE PERIOD...A FUNCTION OF LITTLE FORCING. ALTHOUGH PRECIP
CHANCES SAT NIGHT WILL BE LIMITED DO EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...STACKED LOW EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ABSORBED INTO 5H TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA NEXT WEEK. AS THE STACKED SOUTHWEST LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ON SUN IT LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP
MOISTURE DOES EXIST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BUT THE FRONT
ARRIVES SUN NIGHT. TIMING LIMITS INSTABILITY BUT THERE WILL BE A
35 TO 40 KT LLJ AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. THERE WILL BE SOME PVA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BUT
WONDER HOW MUCH GULF COAST CONVECTION WILL INHIBIT ACTIVITY IN THE
CAPE FEAR REGION. NOT LOOKING FOR STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER SUN NIGHT
BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A DECENT BET. HAVE TRENDED DOWN
POP SUN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...BUT PLAN TO MAINTAIN LIKELY
POP SUN NIGHT.

DRY SLOT SPREADS OVER THE AREA MON BRINGING AN END TO ALL
MEANINGFUL PRECIP BY MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HELP MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON NIGHT WITH THE LOCAL AREA DRYING OUT ON TUE. LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO TUE.
SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUE NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A
LITTLE MORE COLD ADVECTION. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO. CURRENTLY APPEARS BOTH FRONTS WILL PASS DRY...AS EACH LACKS
DEEP MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO NEARLY EASTERLY ALONG THE COAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFFSHORE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CONTEND
THAT THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
OFFSHORE...AND THINK THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THE COASTAL
TERMINALS COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH LITTLE AVIATION
IMPACT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND FROM SOLID MVFR TO NEAR
VFR. TONIGHT...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TO IFR...HOWEVER
MODELS DID NOT GET THAT RIGHT LAST NIGHT. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...SHIFTING TO MORE NORTHEAST TOWARD MORNING.
FRIDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD OF ON SHORE EASTERLY
FETCH AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 7 TO 9 FT
IN MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WAS UP HOLDING
AROUND 10 FT THIS AFTERNOON. WNA MODEL SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
BUT STRONGER ON SHORE FETCH OVER THE TOP SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUST UP
TO 30 KTS SHOULD VEER TO MORE EASTERLY ON TOP SIDE OF LOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT AS LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD CAPE FEAR COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
ON BACK SIDE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COASTAL WAVE/LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FRI MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY GRADIENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BUT AS THE HIGH TAKES CONTROL AND
THE LOW EXITS SPEEDS WILL DROP UNDER 10 KT. ELONGATED SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS FRI NIGHT WILL BECOME EAST LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT GRADIENT AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP SAT. SEAS FLIRTING WITH HEADLINE
CRITERIA FRI MORNING WILL QUICKLY FALL BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...ENDING UP 2 TO 4 FT FRI AFTERNOON AND 2 TO 3 FT SAT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH NORTH AND EAST OF
THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WATERS
SUN. PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LATER SUN OR SUN NIGHT WILL VEER WINDS
TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT BUT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SPEEDS EXCEEDING 20 KT AT TIMES. GRADIENT RELAXES
A LITTLE ON MON WITH SPEEDS DROPPING CLOSER TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL
PEAK SUN NIGHT...TOPPING OUT AT 3 TO 5 FT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEADLINES SUN NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL




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