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000
FXUS62 KILM 010535
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
135 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION PASSING TO OUT SOUTH ALONG A BOUNDARY
THIS EVE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JETTING. THUS...IT SEEMS RATHER IMPROBABLE THAT
ENOUGH MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO FRONTAL LIFT
MOVING OFFSHORE. THUS...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE PERSISTENT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES REDEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED MORNING.

THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S...FROM N TO
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. TERMINALS ONLY TO EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE N-NE BECOMING
LIGHT ENE-E BY 23Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BRIEFLY
TIGHTENED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE FROM N TO S ACROSS
THE WATERS TOWARD MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SW TO W WINDS...UP TO
15 TO 20 KT TO PERSIST. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO NW AND N
WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AROUND 2 AM. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT WITH 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. WE ARE FORECASTING CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND
SO NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KT...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 010535
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
135 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION PASSING TO OUT SOUTH ALONG A BOUNDARY
THIS EVE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JETTING. THUS...IT SEEMS RATHER IMPROBABLE THAT
ENOUGH MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO FRONTAL LIFT
MOVING OFFSHORE. THUS...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE PERSISTENT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES REDEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED MORNING.

THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S...FROM N TO
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. TERMINALS ONLY TO EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE N-NE BECOMING
LIGHT ENE-E BY 23Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BRIEFLY
TIGHTENED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE FROM N TO S ACROSS
THE WATERS TOWARD MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SW TO W WINDS...UP TO
15 TO 20 KT TO PERSIST. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO NW AND N
WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AROUND 2 AM. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT WITH 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. WE ARE FORECASTING CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND
SO NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KT...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 010254
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1054 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION PASSING TO OUT SOUTH ALONG A BOUNDARY
THIS EVE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JETTING. THUS...IT SEEMS RATHER IMPROBABLE
THAT ENOUGH MOISTNEING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO FRONTAL
LIFT MOVING OFFSHORE. THUS...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE PERSISTENT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES REDEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED MORNING.

THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S...FROM N TO
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS SOUTH OF KFLO/KMYR TERMINALS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE
N-NE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BRIEFLY
TIGHTENED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE FROM N TO S
ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SW TO W
WINDS...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT TO PERSIST. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
SHIFT TO NW AND N WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 2 AM. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT WITH 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. WE ARE FORECASTING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS AND SO NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KT...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 010254
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1054 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION PASSING TO OUT SOUTH ALONG A BOUNDARY
THIS EVE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JETTING. THUS...IT SEEMS RATHER IMPROBABLE
THAT ENOUGH MOISTNEING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO FRONTAL
LIFT MOVING OFFSHORE. THUS...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE PERSISTENT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES REDEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED MORNING.

THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S...FROM N TO
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS SOUTH OF KFLO/KMYR TERMINALS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE
N-NE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BRIEFLY
TIGHTENED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE FROM N TO S
ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SW TO W
WINDS...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT TO PERSIST. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
SHIFT TO NW AND N WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 2 AM. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT WITH 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. WE ARE FORECASTING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS AND SO NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KT...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 010023
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
823 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION PASSING TO OUT SOUTH THIS EVE...IT
SEEMS RATHER IMPROBABLE THAT ENOUGH MOISTNEING OF THE COLUMN WILL
OCCUR PRIOR FRONTAL LIFT MOVING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...OUT
OF RESPECT FOR THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY TO PERHAPS BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE PERSISTENT WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES REDEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED MORNING.

THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S...FROM N TO
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS SOUTH OF KFLO/KMYR TERMINALS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE
N-NE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE FROM N TO S ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SW TO W WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO NW AND N WITH THE
APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVE
THROUGH AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT
WITH 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. WE ARE FORECASTING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS AND SO NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND A RECENTLY
PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...VEERING TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4
FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 010023
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
823 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION PASSING TO OUT SOUTH THIS EVE...IT
SEEMS RATHER IMPROBABLE THAT ENOUGH MOISTNEING OF THE COLUMN WILL
OCCUR PRIOR FRONTAL LIFT MOVING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...OUT
OF RESPECT FOR THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY TO PERHAPS BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE PERSISTENT WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES REDEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED MORNING.

THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S...FROM N TO
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS SOUTH OF KFLO/KMYR TERMINALS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE
N-NE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE FROM N TO S ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SW TO W WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO NW AND N WITH THE
APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVE
THROUGH AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT
WITH 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. WE ARE FORECASTING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS AND SO NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND A RECENTLY
PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...VEERING TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4
FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 311902
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A DRY COLUMN AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. A CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SYSTEM IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...MOST PLACES WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S UP NORTH TO THE MID 50S
FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER
TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES
AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT SW WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD FROM PRESENT 2 TO 3 FT RANGE TO 3 TO 5 FT
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 311902
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A DRY COLUMN AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. A CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SYSTEM IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...MOST PLACES WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S UP NORTH TO THE MID 50S
FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER
TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES
AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT SW WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD FROM PRESENT 2 TO 3 FT RANGE TO 3 TO 5 FT
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 311902
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A DRY COLUMN AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. A CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SYSTEM IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...MOST PLACES WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S UP NORTH TO THE MID 50S
FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER
TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES
AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT SW WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD FROM PRESENT 2 TO 3 FT RANGE TO 3 TO 5 FT
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 311902
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A DRY COLUMN AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. A CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SYSTEM IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...MOST PLACES WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S UP NORTH TO THE MID 50S
FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER
TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES
AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT SW WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD FROM PRESENT 2 TO 3 FT RANGE TO 3 TO 5 FT
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 311748
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
148 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

THE DAY HAS WARMED UP QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES
NOW IN THE 60S MOST EVERYWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE
CURVE IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY WHILE RETAINING EXPECTED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS FAINT HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING. PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER
TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES
AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING LEADING TO LIGHT
WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 2 FT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3
FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC LATE TODAY WILL BRING
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A
CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND 20 KT
WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 311748
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
148 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

THE DAY HAS WARMED UP QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES
NOW IN THE 60S MOST EVERYWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE
CURVE IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY WHILE RETAINING EXPECTED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS FAINT HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING. PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER
TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES
AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING LEADING TO LIGHT
WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 2 FT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3
FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC LATE TODAY WILL BRING
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A
CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND 20 KT
WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 311748
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
148 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

THE DAY HAS WARMED UP QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES
NOW IN THE 60S MOST EVERYWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE
CURVE IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY WHILE RETAINING EXPECTED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS FAINT HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING. PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER
TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES
AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING LEADING TO LIGHT
WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 2 FT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3
FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC LATE TODAY WILL BRING
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A
CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND 20 KT
WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 311748
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
148 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

THE DAY HAS WARMED UP QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES
NOW IN THE 60S MOST EVERYWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE
CURVE IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY WHILE RETAINING EXPECTED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS FAINT HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING. PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER
TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES
AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING LEADING TO LIGHT
WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 2 FT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3
FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC LATE TODAY WILL BRING
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A
CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND 20 KT
WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 311441
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1041 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...THE DAY HAS WARMED UP QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE 60S MOST EVERYWHERE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY
WHILE RETAINING EXPECTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS FAINT HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING. PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO...OTHERWISE VFR.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...A WEST SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS DO NOT FAVOR FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 2 FT RANGE
LATER THIS MORNING. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3
FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC LATE TODAY WILL BRING
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A
CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND 20 KT
WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 311441
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1041 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...THE DAY HAS WARMED UP QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE 60S MOST EVERYWHERE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY
WHILE RETAINING EXPECTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS FAINT HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING. PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO...OTHERWISE VFR.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...A WEST SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS DO NOT FAVOR FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 2 FT RANGE
LATER THIS MORNING. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3
FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC LATE TODAY WILL BRING
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A
CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND 20 KT
WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 311046
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
644 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY AS FAINT HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL
CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING.
PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE
MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO...OTHERWISE VFR.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...A WEST SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS DO NOT FAVOR FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE
DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC
LATE TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR A CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND
20 KT WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW FIRE WEATHER...JDW/MJC




000
FXUS62 KILM 311046
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
644 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY AS FAINT HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL
CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING.
PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE
MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO...OTHERWISE VFR.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...A WEST SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS DO NOT FAVOR FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE
DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC
LATE TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR A CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND
20 KT WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW FIRE WEATHER...JDW/MJC





000
FXUS62 KILM 311046
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
644 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY AS FAINT HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL
CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING.
PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE
MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO...OTHERWISE VFR.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...A WEST SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS DO NOT FAVOR FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE
DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC
LATE TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR A CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND
20 KT WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW FIRE WEATHER...JDW/MJC





000
FXUS62 KILM 311005
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
605 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY AS FAINT HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL
CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING.
PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE
MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY
AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE
DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC
LATE TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR A CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND
20 KT WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW/MJC





000
FXUS62 KILM 311005
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
605 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY AS FAINT HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL
CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING.
PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE
MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY
AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE
DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC
LATE TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR A CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND
20 KT WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW/MJC




000
FXUS62 KILM 310716
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY AS FAINT HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL
CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING.
PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE
MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY
AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300  AM TUESDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE
DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC
LATE TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR A CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND
20 KT WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...MJC/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 310716
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY AS FAINT HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL
CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING.
PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE
MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY
AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300  AM TUESDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE
DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC
LATE TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR A CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND
20 KT WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...MJC/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 310530
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR
THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY
AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER...
REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING
ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR/8
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 310530
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR
THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY
AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER...
REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING
ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR/8
FIRE WEATHER...SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 310530
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR
THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY
AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER...
REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING
ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR/8
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 310530
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR
THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY
AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER...
REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING
ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR/8
FIRE WEATHER...SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 310301
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1101 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR
THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER...
REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING
ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 310301
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1101 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR
THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER...
REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING
ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 310301
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1101 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR
THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER...
REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING
ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 310301
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1101 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR
THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER...
REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING
ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 310008 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
SO.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR  TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013
RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE
AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND
NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 310008 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
SO.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR  TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013
RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE
AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND
NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 310008 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
SO.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR  TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013
RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE
AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND
NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 310008 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
SO.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR  TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013
RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE
AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND
NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 310002
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
SO.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR  TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013
RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE
AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND
NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 310002
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
SO.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR  TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013
RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE
AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND
NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 310002
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
SO.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR  TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013
RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE
AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND
NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 302348 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
408 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS FOR THE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.  THE HRRR IS FORECASTING THE DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR LUMBERTON TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO
PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLIES
ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC AIR MASSES
WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ILM CWA
WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR
SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA
THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MON. THERE AFTER
MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMO
TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS
DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A
SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM
CWA AND COASTAL WATERS COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE
TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING
TREND THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND.
SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS
LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK
RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN
SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA AND COASTAL WATERS
COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING TREND THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH/SRP
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SGL/DRH
FIRE WEATHER...SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 302348 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
408 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS FOR THE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.  THE HRRR IS FORECASTING THE DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR LUMBERTON TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO
PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLIES
ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC AIR MASSES
WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ILM CWA
WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR
SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA
THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MON. THERE AFTER
MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMO
TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS
DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A
SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM
CWA AND COASTAL WATERS COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE
TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING
TREND THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND.
SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS
LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK
RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN
SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA AND COASTAL WATERS
COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING TREND THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH/SRP
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SGL/DRH
FIRE WEATHER...SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 302348 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
408 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS FOR THE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.  THE HRRR IS FORECASTING THE DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR LUMBERTON TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO
PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLIES
ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC AIR MASSES
WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ILM CWA
WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR
SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA
THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MON. THERE AFTER
MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMO
TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS
DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A
SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM
CWA AND COASTAL WATERS COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE
TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING
TREND THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND.
SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS
LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK
RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN
SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA AND COASTAL WATERS
COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING TREND THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH/SRP
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SGL/DRH
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 302348 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
408 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS FOR THE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.  THE HRRR IS FORECASTING THE DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR LUMBERTON TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO
PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLIES
ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC AIR MASSES
WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ILM CWA
WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR
SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA
THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MON. THERE AFTER
MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMO
TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS
DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A
SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM
CWA AND COASTAL WATERS COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE
TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING
TREND THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND.
SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS
LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK
RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN
SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA AND COASTAL WATERS
COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING TREND THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH/SRP
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SGL/DRH
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 302008
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
408 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS FOR THE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.  THE HRRR IS FORECASTING THE DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR LUMBERTON TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO
PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLIES
ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC AIR MASSES
WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ILM CWA
WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR
SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA
THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MON. THERE AFTER
MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMO
TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS
DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A
SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM
CWA AND COASTAL WATERS COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE
TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING
TREND THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND.
SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS
LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK
RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH/SRP
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SGL/DRH
FIRE WEATHER...SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 302008
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
408 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS FOR THE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.  THE HRRR IS FORECASTING THE DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR LUMBERTON TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO
PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLIES
ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC AIR MASSES
WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ILM CWA
WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR
SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA
THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MON. THERE AFTER
MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMO
TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS
DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A
SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM
CWA AND COASTAL WATERS COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE
TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING
TREND THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND.
SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS
LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK
RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH/SRP
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SGL/DRH
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 301929
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS FOR THE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.  THE HRRR IS FORECASTING THE DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR LUMBERTON TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BLOWING NEAR 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  WINDS SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RELAX AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.
THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECT TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM TONIGHT.

SEAS ARE AT THERE MAXIMUM AT THIS MOMENT WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN
4 TO 6 FEET. AS WITH WIND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SEAS WILL SETTLE BACK DOWN
TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY SUNRISE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND.
SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS
LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK
RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
FIRE WEATHER...SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 301929
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS FOR THE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.  THE HRRR IS FORECASTING THE DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR LUMBERTON TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BLOWING NEAR 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  WINDS SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RELAX AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.
THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECT TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM TONIGHT.

SEAS ARE AT THERE MAXIMUM AT THIS MOMENT WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN
4 TO 6 FEET. AS WITH WIND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SEAS WILL SETTLE BACK DOWN
TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY SUNRISE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND.
SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS
LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK
RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 301819
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
219 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM MONDAY...AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING IN ALL IT
MORNING RUNS THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER EXIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 3 PM. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AS FRONT CROSSES
WATERS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS
ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. SO EXPECT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED
AFTER 8 PM.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 301819
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
219 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM MONDAY...AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING IN ALL IT
MORNING RUNS THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER EXIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 3 PM. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AS FRONT CROSSES
WATERS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS
ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. SO EXPECT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED
AFTER 8 PM.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 301819
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
219 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM MONDAY...AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING IN ALL IT
MORNING RUNS THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER EXIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 3 PM. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AS FRONT CROSSES
WATERS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS
ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. SO EXPECT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED
AFTER 8 PM.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 301819
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
219 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM MONDAY...AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING IN ALL IT
MORNING RUNS THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER EXIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 3 PM. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AS FRONT CROSSES
WATERS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS
ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. SO EXPECT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED
AFTER 8 PM.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 301734
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
134 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM MONDAY...AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING IN ALL IT
MORNING RUNS THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER EXIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 3 PM. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AS FRONT CROSSES
WATERS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS
ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. SO EXPECT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED
AFTER 8 PM.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 301734
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
134 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM MONDAY...AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING IN ALL IT
MORNING RUNS THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER EXIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 3 PM. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AS FRONT CROSSES
WATERS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS
ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. SO EXPECT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED
AFTER 8 PM.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 301734
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
134 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM MONDAY...AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING IN ALL IT
MORNING RUNS THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER EXIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 3 PM. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AS FRONT CROSSES
WATERS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS
ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. SO EXPECT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED
AFTER 8 PM.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 301734
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
134 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM MONDAY...AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING IN ALL IT
MORNING RUNS THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER EXIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 3 PM. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AS FRONT CROSSES
WATERS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS
ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. SO EXPECT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED
AFTER 8 PM.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 301428
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MARCH INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE TREND OF THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN. IN THE PAST HOUR SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 19 UTC.

AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
SUNSET AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD NOT RULE OUT LLWS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AT THE INLAND SITES. A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MID/HIGH AND EVENTUALLY
LOW CLOUDS...BECOMING SCT/BKN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INTERMITTENT LOW
CIGS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CREATE MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR
AT TIMES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KT WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT TODAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY AND CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR...ALLOWING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND AS THE FRONT GET CLOSER LATER
THIS EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL HELP BUILD THE SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH THE WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA HAVE RAISED AN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 301428
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MARCH INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE TREND OF THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN. IN THE PAST HOUR SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 19 UTC.

AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
SUNSET AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD NOT RULE OUT LLWS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AT THE INLAND SITES. A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MID/HIGH AND EVENTUALLY
LOW CLOUDS...BECOMING SCT/BKN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INTERMITTENT LOW
CIGS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CREATE MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR
AT TIMES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KT WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT TODAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY AND CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR...ALLOWING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND AS THE FRONT GET CLOSER LATER
THIS EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL HELP BUILD THE SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH THE WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA HAVE RAISED AN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 301428
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MARCH INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE TREND OF THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN. IN THE PAST HOUR SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 19 UTC.

AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
SUNSET AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD NOT RULE OUT LLWS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AT THE INLAND SITES. A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MID/HIGH AND EVENTUALLY
LOW CLOUDS...BECOMING SCT/BKN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INTERMITTENT LOW
CIGS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CREATE MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR
AT TIMES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KT WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT TODAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY AND CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR...ALLOWING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND AS THE FRONT GET CLOSER LATER
THIS EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL HELP BUILD THE SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH THE WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA HAVE RAISED AN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 301428
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MARCH INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE TREND OF THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN. IN THE PAST HOUR SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 19 UTC.

AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
SUNSET AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD NOT RULE OUT LLWS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AT THE INLAND SITES. A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MID/HIGH AND EVENTUALLY
LOW CLOUDS...BECOMING SCT/BKN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INTERMITTENT LOW
CIGS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CREATE MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR
AT TIMES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KT WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT TODAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY AND CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR...ALLOWING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND AS THE FRONT GET CLOSER LATER
THIS EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL HELP BUILD THE SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH THE WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA HAVE RAISED AN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 301134
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
734 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DAYTIME
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...WHILE A FEW COLD POCKETS ARE HANGING ON
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED
GRADUAL WARMING PRECEDING DAYBREAK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. EARLY
SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN BEFORE CLOUDS FILL IN LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS QUICK WARMING TODAY...HOLDING MAXIMUMS IN THE
60S. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE AND THE
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING WEST OF I-95 TO MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. MOISTURE ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED WITH DRY W-WNW
H8-H5 WIND FLOW PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING FRONTAL TRANSIT. LATE
MARCH HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MAXIMUMS SHOULD WARM AROUND 25 DEGREES TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH 60S EXPECTED...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPERING A RAPID
WARM-UP. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A COOL
NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY LOW/MID 40S MOST LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD NOT RULE OUT LLWS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AT THE INLAND SITES. A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MID/HIGH AND EVENTUALLY
LOW CLOUDS...BECOMING SCT/BKN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INTERMITTENT LOW
CIGS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CREATE MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR
AT TIMES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS TODAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY AND CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR...ALLOWING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...AN EXERCISE CAUTION IS POSTED TODAY FROM
10AM-8PM FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FEET SEAS AWAY FROM INSHORE
WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT MAINLY CONFINED IN
THE MILDER OUTER PORTIONS SO NO ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A
FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MID AND LATE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. NO TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TONIGHT BUT APPEAR WEAKER THAN
THOSE PRECEDING THE FRONT AND NO STRONG COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 301134
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
734 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DAYTIME
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...WHILE A FEW COLD POCKETS ARE HANGING ON
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED
GRADUAL WARMING PRECEDING DAYBREAK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. EARLY
SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN BEFORE CLOUDS FILL IN LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS QUICK WARMING TODAY...HOLDING MAXIMUMS IN THE
60S. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE AND THE
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING WEST OF I-95 TO MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. MOISTURE ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED WITH DRY W-WNW
H8-H5 WIND FLOW PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING FRONTAL TRANSIT. LATE
MARCH HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MAXIMUMS SHOULD WARM AROUND 25 DEGREES TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH 60S EXPECTED...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPERING A RAPID
WARM-UP. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A COOL
NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY LOW/MID 40S MOST LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD NOT RULE OUT LLWS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AT THE INLAND SITES. A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MID/HIGH AND EVENTUALLY
LOW CLOUDS...BECOMING SCT/BKN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INTERMITTENT LOW
CIGS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CREATE MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR
AT TIMES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS TODAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY AND CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR...ALLOWING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...AN EXERCISE CAUTION IS POSTED TODAY FROM
10AM-8PM FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FEET SEAS AWAY FROM INSHORE
WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT MAINLY CONFINED IN
THE MILDER OUTER PORTIONS SO NO ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A
FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MID AND LATE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. NO TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TONIGHT BUT APPEAR WEAKER THAN
THOSE PRECEDING THE FRONT AND NO STRONG COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 301134
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
734 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DAYTIME
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...WHILE A FEW COLD POCKETS ARE HANGING ON
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED
GRADUAL WARMING PRECEDING DAYBREAK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. EARLY
SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN BEFORE CLOUDS FILL IN LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS QUICK WARMING TODAY...HOLDING MAXIMUMS IN THE
60S. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE AND THE
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING WEST OF I-95 TO MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. MOISTURE ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED WITH DRY W-WNW
H8-H5 WIND FLOW PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING FRONTAL TRANSIT. LATE
MARCH HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MAXIMUMS SHOULD WARM AROUND 25 DEGREES TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH 60S EXPECTED...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPERING A RAPID
WARM-UP. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A COOL
NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY LOW/MID 40S MOST LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD NOT RULE OUT LLWS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AT THE INLAND SITES. A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MID/HIGH AND EVENTUALLY
LOW CLOUDS...BECOMING SCT/BKN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INTERMITTENT LOW
CIGS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CREATE MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR
AT TIMES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS TODAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY AND CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR...ALLOWING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...AN EXERCISE CAUTION IS POSTED TODAY FROM
10AM-8PM FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FEET SEAS AWAY FROM INSHORE
WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT MAINLY CONFINED IN
THE MILDER OUTER PORTIONS SO NO ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A
FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MID AND LATE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. NO TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TONIGHT BUT APPEAR WEAKER THAN
THOSE PRECEDING THE FRONT AND NO STRONG COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 301134
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
734 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DAYTIME
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...WHILE A FEW COLD POCKETS ARE HANGING ON
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED
GRADUAL WARMING PRECEDING DAYBREAK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. EARLY
SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN BEFORE CLOUDS FILL IN LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS QUICK WARMING TODAY...HOLDING MAXIMUMS IN THE
60S. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE AND THE
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING WEST OF I-95 TO MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. MOISTURE ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED WITH DRY W-WNW
H8-H5 WIND FLOW PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING FRONTAL TRANSIT. LATE
MARCH HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MAXIMUMS SHOULD WARM AROUND 25 DEGREES TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH 60S EXPECTED...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPERING A RAPID
WARM-UP. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A COOL
NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY LOW/MID 40S MOST LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD NOT RULE OUT LLWS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AT THE INLAND SITES. A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MID/HIGH AND EVENTUALLY
LOW CLOUDS...BECOMING SCT/BKN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INTERMITTENT LOW
CIGS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CREATE MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR
AT TIMES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS TODAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY AND CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR...ALLOWING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...AN EXERCISE CAUTION IS POSTED TODAY FROM
10AM-8PM FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FEET SEAS AWAY FROM INSHORE
WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT MAINLY CONFINED IN
THE MILDER OUTER PORTIONS SO NO ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A
FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MID AND LATE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. NO TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TONIGHT BUT APPEAR WEAKER THAN
THOSE PRECEDING THE FRONT AND NO STRONG COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 301021
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DAYTIME
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...WHILE A FEW COLD POCKETS ARE HANGING ON
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED
GRADUAL WARMING PRECEDING DAYBREAK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. EARLY
SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN BEFORE CLOUDS FILL IN LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS QUICK WARMING TODAY...HOLDING MAXIMUMS IN THE
60S. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE AND THE
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING WEST OF I-95 TO MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. MOISTURE ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED WITH DRY W-WNW
H8-H5 WIND FLOW PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING FRONTAL TRANSIT. LATE
MARCH HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MAXIMUMS SHOULD WARM AROUND 25 DEGREES TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH 60S EXPECTED...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPERING A RAPID
WARM-UP. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A COOL
NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY LOW/MID 40S MOST LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. LIGHT SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
INTO THE KLBT/KFLO TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALONG WITH LOW
VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AROUND SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND MID-MORNING
AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS
COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT/SKC SKIES BY 23-00Z AS WINDS GO LIGHT NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...AN EXERCISE CAUTION IS POSTED TODAY FROM
10AM-8PM FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FEET SEAS AWAY FROM INSHORE
WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT MAINLY CONFINED IN
THE MILDER OUTER PORTIONS SO NO ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A
FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MID AND LATE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. NO TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TONIGHT BUT APPEAR WEAKER THAN
THOSE PRECEDING THE FRONT AND NO STRONG COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MJC





000
FXUS62 KILM 301021
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DAYTIME
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...WHILE A FEW COLD POCKETS ARE HANGING ON
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED
GRADUAL WARMING PRECEDING DAYBREAK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. EARLY
SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN BEFORE CLOUDS FILL IN LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS QUICK WARMING TODAY...HOLDING MAXIMUMS IN THE
60S. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE AND THE
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING WEST OF I-95 TO MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. MOISTURE ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED WITH DRY W-WNW
H8-H5 WIND FLOW PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING FRONTAL TRANSIT. LATE
MARCH HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MAXIMUMS SHOULD WARM AROUND 25 DEGREES TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH 60S EXPECTED...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPERING A RAPID
WARM-UP. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A COOL
NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY LOW/MID 40S MOST LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. LIGHT SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
INTO THE KLBT/KFLO TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALONG WITH LOW
VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AROUND SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND MID-MORNING
AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS
COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT/SKC SKIES BY 23-00Z AS WINDS GO LIGHT NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...AN EXERCISE CAUTION IS POSTED TODAY FROM
10AM-8PM FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FEET SEAS AWAY FROM INSHORE
WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT MAINLY CONFINED IN
THE MILDER OUTER PORTIONS SO NO ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A
FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MID AND LATE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. NO TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TONIGHT BUT APPEAR WEAKER THAN
THOSE PRECEDING THE FRONT AND NO STRONG COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MJC




000
FXUS62 KILM 301017
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DAYTIME
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...WHILE A FEW COLD POCKETS ARE HANGING ON
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED
GRADUAL WARMING PRECEDING DAYBREAK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. EARLY
SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN BEFORE CLOUDS FULL IN LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS QUICK WARMING TODAY...HOLDING MAXIMUMS IN THE
60S TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE AND THE
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING WEST OF I-95 TO MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. MOISTURE ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED WITH DRY W-WNW
H8-H5 WIND FLOW PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING FRONTAL TRANSIT. LATE
MARCH HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MAXIMUMS SHOULD WARM AROUND 25 DEGREES TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH 60S EXPECTED...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPERING A RAPID
WARM-UP. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A COOL
NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY LOW/MID 40S MOST LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. LIGHT SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
INTO THE KLBT/KFLO TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALONG WITH LOW
VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AROUND SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND MID-MORNING
AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS
COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT/SKC SKIES BY 23-00Z AS WINDS GO LIGHT NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...AN EXERCISE CAUTION IS POSTED TODAY FROM
10AM-8PM FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FEET SEAS AWAY FROM INSHORE
WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT MAINLY CONFINED IN
THE MILDER OUTER PORTIONS SO NO ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A
FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MID AND LATE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. NO TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TONIGHT BUT APPEAR WEAKER THAN
THOSE PRECEDING THE FRONT AND NO STRONG COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MJC




000
FXUS62 KILM 301017
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DAYTIME
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...WHILE A FEW COLD POCKETS ARE HANGING ON
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED
GRADUAL WARMING PRECEDING DAYBREAK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. EARLY
SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN BEFORE CLOUDS FULL IN LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS QUICK WARMING TODAY...HOLDING MAXIMUMS IN THE
60S TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE AND THE
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING WEST OF I-95 TO MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. MOISTURE ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED WITH DRY W-WNW
H8-H5 WIND FLOW PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING FRONTAL TRANSIT. LATE
MARCH HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MAXIMUMS SHOULD WARM AROUND 25 DEGREES TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH 60S EXPECTED...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPERING A RAPID
WARM-UP. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A COOL
NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY LOW/MID 40S MOST LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. LIGHT SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
INTO THE KLBT/KFLO TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALONG WITH LOW
VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AROUND SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND MID-MORNING
AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS
COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT/SKC SKIES BY 23-00Z AS WINDS GO LIGHT NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...AN EXERCISE CAUTION IS POSTED TODAY FROM
10AM-8PM FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FEET SEAS AWAY FROM INSHORE
WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT MAINLY CONFINED IN
THE MILDER OUTER PORTIONS SO NO ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A
FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MID AND LATE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. NO TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TONIGHT BUT APPEAR WEAKER THAN
THOSE PRECEDING THE FRONT AND NO STRONG COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MJC





000
FXUS62 KILM 301017
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DAYTIME
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...WHILE A FEW COLD POCKETS ARE HANGING ON
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED
GRADUAL WARMING PRECEDING DAYBREAK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. EARLY
SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN BEFORE CLOUDS FULL IN LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS QUICK WARMING TODAY...HOLDING MAXIMUMS IN THE
60S TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE AND THE
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING WEST OF I-95 TO MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. MOISTURE ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED WITH DRY W-WNW
H8-H5 WIND FLOW PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING FRONTAL TRANSIT. LATE
MARCH HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MAXIMUMS SHOULD WARM AROUND 25 DEGREES TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH 60S EXPECTED...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPERING A RAPID
WARM-UP. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A COOL
NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY LOW/MID 40S MOST LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. LIGHT SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
INTO THE KLBT/KFLO TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALONG WITH LOW
VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AROUND SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND MID-MORNING
AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS
COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT/SKC SKIES BY 23-00Z AS WINDS GO LIGHT NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...AN EXERCISE CAUTION IS POSTED TODAY FROM
10AM-8PM FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FEET SEAS AWAY FROM INSHORE
WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT MAINLY CONFINED IN
THE MILDER OUTER PORTIONS SO NO ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A
FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MID AND LATE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. NO TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TONIGHT BUT APPEAR WEAKER THAN
THOSE PRECEDING THE FRONT AND NO STRONG COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MJC





000
FXUS62 KILM 300702
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR SE NC AND
VERY NE SC UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...OTHER LOCATIONS A
BIT MORE SHELTERED REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S. CONSEQUENTLY
WILL NOT TINKER WITH THE ADVISORY AND LET IT RUN ITS COURSE.

PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING WEST OF I-95 TO MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. MOISTURE ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED WITH DRY W-WNW
H8-H5 WIND FLOW PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING FRONTAL TRANSIT. LATE
MARCH HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MAXIMUMS SHOULD WARM AROUND 25 DEGREES TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH 60S EXPECTED...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPERING A RAPID
WARM-UP. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A COOL
NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY LOW/MID 40S MOST LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. LIGHT SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
INTO THE KLBT/KFLO TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALONG WITH LOW
VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AROUND SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND MID-MORNING
AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS
COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT/SKC SKIES BY 23-00Z AS WINDS GO LIGHT NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...AN EXERCISE CAUTION IS POSTED TODAY FROM
10AM-8PM FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FEET SEAS AWAY FROM INSHORE
WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT MAINLY CONFINED IN
THE MILDER OUTER PORTIONS SO NO ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MID AND LATE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT
NOT WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. NO TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TONIGHT BUT APPEAR WEAKER THAN
THOSE PRECEDING THE FRONT AND NO STRONG COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SCZ024-
     033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-
     096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 300702
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR SE NC AND
VERY NE SC UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...OTHER LOCATIONS A
BIT MORE SHELTERED REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S. CONSEQUENTLY
WILL NOT TINKER WITH THE ADVISORY AND LET IT RUN ITS COURSE.

PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING WEST OF I-95 TO MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. MOISTURE ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED WITH DRY W-WNW
H8-H5 WIND FLOW PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING FRONTAL TRANSIT. LATE
MARCH HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MAXIMUMS SHOULD WARM AROUND 25 DEGREES TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH 60S EXPECTED...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPERING A RAPID
WARM-UP. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A COOL
NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY LOW/MID 40S MOST LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. LIGHT SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
INTO THE KLBT/KFLO TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALONG WITH LOW
VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AROUND SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND MID-MORNING
AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS
COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT/SKC SKIES BY 23-00Z AS WINDS GO LIGHT NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...AN EXERCISE CAUTION IS POSTED TODAY FROM
10AM-8PM FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FEET SEAS AWAY FROM INSHORE
WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT MAINLY CONFINED IN
THE MILDER OUTER PORTIONS SO NO ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MID AND LATE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT
NOT WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. NO TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TONIGHT BUT APPEAR WEAKER THAN
THOSE PRECEDING THE FRONT AND NO STRONG COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SCZ024-
     033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-
     096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 300702
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR SE NC AND
VERY NE SC UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...OTHER LOCATIONS A
BIT MORE SHELTERED REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S. CONSEQUENTLY
WILL NOT TINKER WITH THE ADVISORY AND LET IT RUN ITS COURSE.

PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING WEST OF I-95 TO MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. MOISTURE ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED WITH DRY W-WNW
H8-H5 WIND FLOW PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING FRONTAL TRANSIT. LATE
MARCH HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MAXIMUMS SHOULD WARM AROUND 25 DEGREES TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH 60S EXPECTED...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPERING A RAPID
WARM-UP. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A COOL
NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY LOW/MID 40S MOST LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.

FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. LIGHT SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
INTO THE KLBT/KFLO TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALONG WITH LOW
VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AROUND SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND MID-MORNING
AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS
COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT/SKC SKIES BY 23-00Z AS WINDS GO LIGHT NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...AN EXERCISE CAUTION IS POSTED TODAY FROM
10AM-8PM FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FEET SEAS AWAY FROM INSHORE
WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT MAINLY CONFINED IN
THE MILDER OUTER PORTIONS SO NO ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MID AND LATE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT
NOT WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. NO TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TONIGHT BUT APPEAR WEAKER THAN
THOSE PRECEDING THE FRONT AND NO STRONG COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SCZ024-
     033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-
     096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 300519
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING DAYTIME
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM MONDAY...A LATE SEASON FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
TIL 6 AM. THE FROST ADVISORY INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND IN SOUTH CAROLINA...HORRY...MARION AND DILLON
COUNTIES. PATCHY FROST AT BEST IS EXPECTED ACROSS GEORGETOWN...
WILLIAMSBURG...FLORENCE...DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. ANY
FROST WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE COLDEST SPOTS MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR A
TIME. ON THE WHOLE...TEMPS WILL BE STABILIZING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT UPWARD TENDENCY AS CLOUDS SIGNIFICANTLY THICKEN LATE.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE UNSEASONABLE/RECORD COLD FOR THIS
WEEK.

A RIDGE AXIS HAS SLID OFF THE COAST AS EXPECTED AND A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVED INTO THIS RIDGE THIS EVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE RIDGE MOVING PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE VORTICITY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW IS WEAK AND FAST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND PWATS
RISE TO ONLY 0.75-1.0 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMBINED WITH
OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL STILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY...BUT WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCH RANGE. SREF PLUME MEAN QPF IS ACTUALLY ONLY AROUND 0.05 INCHES
AT ILM...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SC ZONES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LAG THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT IS LACKING ANYWAY. THUS...TEMPS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW 60S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT BETTER THAN THIS PAST WKND...WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLATTENING OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BENEATH ABUNDANT LATE-MARCH SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
AROUND 70 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW 60S AT THE
BEACHES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...STRUGGLING TO FALL EVEN BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL...SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE
DEWPOINTS CREEP HIGHER ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT POPS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND. THUS
LOWERED POPS THU-FRI TIME FRAME AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. LIGHT SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
INTO THE KLBT/KFLO TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALONG WITH LOW
VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AROUND SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND MID-MORNING
AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS
COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT/SKC SKIES BY 23-00Z AS WINDS GO LIGHT NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 119 AM MONDAY...A RIDGE AXIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
AND EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST ACROSS THE
COOL NEAR-SHORE SHELF WATERS. BEYOND 15 NM...OCEAN TEMPS BEGIN TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY...AND WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW- LEVEL
JET...EXPECT WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS
TOWARD MORNING. AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE
PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...
REACHING AROUND 20 KT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE NW WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS TUESDAY...SO AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN 4-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED...AND A SCEC MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP TO
1-2 FT ON THE VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE TO
2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF CAPE FEAR INCREASES FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT (LOWER
INSHORE) EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THU...THEN 3-5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SCZ024-
     033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-
     096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 300519
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING DAYTIME
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM MONDAY...A LATE SEASON FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
TIL 6 AM. THE FROST ADVISORY INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND IN SOUTH CAROLINA...HORRY...MARION AND DILLON
COUNTIES. PATCHY FROST AT BEST IS EXPECTED ACROSS GEORGETOWN...
WILLIAMSBURG...FLORENCE...DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. ANY
FROST WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE COLDEST SPOTS MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR A
TIME. ON THE WHOLE...TEMPS WILL BE STABILIZING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT UPWARD TENDENCY AS CLOUDS SIGNIFICANTLY THICKEN LATE.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE UNSEASONABLE/RECORD COLD FOR THIS
WEEK.

A RIDGE AXIS HAS SLID OFF THE COAST AS EXPECTED AND A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVED INTO THIS RIDGE THIS EVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE RIDGE MOVING PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE VORTICITY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW IS WEAK AND FAST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND PWATS
RISE TO ONLY 0.75-1.0 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMBINED WITH
OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL STILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY...BUT WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCH RANGE. SREF PLUME MEAN QPF IS ACTUALLY ONLY AROUND 0.05 INCHES
AT ILM...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SC ZONES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LAG THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT IS LACKING ANYWAY. THUS...TEMPS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW 60S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT BETTER THAN THIS PAST WKND...WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLATTENING OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BENEATH ABUNDANT LATE-MARCH SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
AROUND 70 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW 60S AT THE
BEACHES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...STRUGGLING TO FALL EVEN BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL...SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE
DEWPOINTS CREEP HIGHER ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT POPS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND. THUS
LOWERED POPS THU-FRI TIME FRAME AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. LIGHT SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
INTO THE KLBT/KFLO TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALONG WITH LOW
VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AROUND SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND MID-MORNING
AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS
COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT/SKC SKIES BY 23-00Z AS WINDS GO LIGHT NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 119 AM MONDAY...A RIDGE AXIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
AND EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST ACROSS THE
COOL NEAR-SHORE SHELF WATERS. BEYOND 15 NM...OCEAN TEMPS BEGIN TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY...AND WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW- LEVEL
JET...EXPECT WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS
TOWARD MORNING. AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE
PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...
REACHING AROUND 20 KT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE NW WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS TUESDAY...SO AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN 4-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED...AND A SCEC MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP TO
1-2 FT ON THE VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE TO
2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF CAPE FEAR INCREASES FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT (LOWER
INSHORE) EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THU...THEN 3-5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SCZ024-
     033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-
     096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 300519
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING DAYTIME
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 119 AM MONDAY...A LATE SEASON FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
TIL 6 AM. THE FROST ADVISORY INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND IN SOUTH CAROLINA...HORRY...MARION AND DILLON
COUNTIES. PATCHY FROST AT BEST IS EXPECTED ACROSS GEORGETOWN...
WILLIAMSBURG...FLORENCE...DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. ANY
FROST WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE COLDEST SPOTS MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR A
TIME. ON THE WHOLE...TEMPS WILL BE STABILIZING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT UPWARD TENDENCY AS CLOUDS SIGNIFICANTLY THICKEN LATE.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE UNSEASONABLE/RECORD COLD FOR THIS
WEEK.

A RIDGE AXIS HAS SLID OFF THE COAST AS EXPECTED AND A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVED INTO THIS RIDGE THIS EVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE RIDGE MOVING PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE VORTICITY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW IS WEAK AND FAST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND PWATS
RISE TO ONLY 0.75-1.0 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMBINED WITH
OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL STILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY...BUT WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCH RANGE. SREF PLUME MEAN QPF IS ACTUALLY ONLY AROUND 0.05 INCHES
AT ILM...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SC ZONES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LAG THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT IS LACKING ANYWAY. THUS...TEMPS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW 60S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT BETTER THAN THIS PAST WKND...WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLATTENING OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BENEATH ABUNDANT LATE-MARCH SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
AROUND 70 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW 60S AT THE
BEACHES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...STRUGGLING TO FALL EVEN BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL...SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE
DEWPOINTS CREEP HIGHER ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT POPS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND. THUS
LOWERED POPS THU-FRI TIME FRAME AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. LIGHT SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
INTO THE KLBT/KFLO TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALONG WITH LOW
VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AROUND SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND MID-MORNING
AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS
COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT/SKC SKIES BY 23-00Z AS WINDS GO LIGHT NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 119 AM MONDAY...A RIDGE AXIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
AND EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST ACROSS THE
COOL NEAR-SHORE SHELF WATERS. BEYOND 15 NM...OCEAN TEMPS BEGIN TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY...AND WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW- LEVEL
JET...EXPECT WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS
TOWARD MORNING. AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE
PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...
REACHING AROUND 20 KT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE NW WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS TUESDAY...SO AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN 4-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED...AND A SCEC MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP TO
1-2 FT ON THE VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE TO
2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF CAPE FEAR INCREASES FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT (LOWER
INSHORE) EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THU...THEN 3-5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SCZ024-
     033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-
     096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 300212
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1012 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK...BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...A LATE SEASON FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
TIL 6 AM. THE FROST ADVISORY INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND IN SOUTH CAROLINA...HORRY...MARION AND DILLON
COUNTIES. PATCHY FROST AT BEST IS EXPECTED ACROSS GEORGETOWN...
WILLIAMSBURG...FLORENCE...DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. ANY
FROST WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE COLDEST SPOTS MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR A
TIME. ON THE WHOLE...TEMPS WILL BE STABILIZING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH A SLIGHT UPWARD TENDENCY AS CLOUDS SIGNIFICANTLY THICKEN
LATE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE UNSEASONABLE/RECORD COLD FOR
THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE AXIS HAS SLID OFF THE COAST AS EXPECTED AND A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVED INTO THIS RIDGE THIS EVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE RIDGE MOVING PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE VORTICITY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW IS WEAK AND FAST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND PWATS
RISE TO ONLY 0.75-1.0 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMBINED WITH
OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL STILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY...BUT WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCH RANGE. SREF PLUME MEAN QPF IS ACTUALLY ONLY AROUND 0.05 INCHES
AT ILM...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SC ZONES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LAG THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT IS LACKING ANYWAY. THUS...TEMPS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW 60S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT BETTER THAN THIS PAST WKND...WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLATTENING OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BENEATH ABUNDANT LATE-MARCH SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
AROUND 70 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW 60S AT THE
BEACHES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...STRUGGLING TO FALL EVEN BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL...SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE
DEWPOINTS CREEP HIGHER ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT POPS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND. THUS
LOWERED POPS THU-FRI TIME FRAME AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
LIGHT SW WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP KLBT/KFLO IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS AS LOW VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOP. THESE CIGS WILL
REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BE
MID-MORNING AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. VSBYS COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO NEAR 20 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE
TO VFR AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND
LATE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...A RIDGE AXIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
LATE THIS EVE. EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST
ACROSS THE COOL NEAR-SHORE SHELF WATERS. BEYOND 15 NM...OCEAN
TEMPS BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...AND WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET...EXPECT WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST
WATERS TOWARD MORNING. AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE...SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE
PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...
REACHING AROUND 20 KT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE NW WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS TUESDAY...SO AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN 4-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED...AND A SCEC MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP TO
1-2 FT ON THE VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE TO
2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF CAPE FEAR INCREASES FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT (LOWER
INSHORE) EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THU...THEN 3-5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ024-033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 300212
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1012 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK...BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...A LATE SEASON FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
TIL 6 AM. THE FROST ADVISORY INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND IN SOUTH CAROLINA...HORRY...MARION AND DILLON
COUNTIES. PATCHY FROST AT BEST IS EXPECTED ACROSS GEORGETOWN...
WILLIAMSBURG...FLORENCE...DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. ANY
FROST WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE COLDEST SPOTS MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR A
TIME. ON THE WHOLE...TEMPS WILL BE STABILIZING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH A SLIGHT UPWARD TENDENCY AS CLOUDS SIGNIFICANTLY THICKEN
LATE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE UNSEASONABLE/RECORD COLD FOR
THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE AXIS HAS SLID OFF THE COAST AS EXPECTED AND A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVED INTO THIS RIDGE THIS EVE. HOWEVER...WITH
THE RIDGE MOVING PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE VORTICITY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW IS WEAK AND FAST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND PWATS
RISE TO ONLY 0.75-1.0 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMBINED WITH
OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL STILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY...BUT WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCH RANGE. SREF PLUME MEAN QPF IS ACTUALLY ONLY AROUND 0.05 INCHES
AT ILM...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SC ZONES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LAG THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT IS LACKING ANYWAY. THUS...TEMPS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW 60S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT BETTER THAN THIS PAST WKND...WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLATTENING OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BENEATH ABUNDANT LATE-MARCH SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
AROUND 70 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW 60S AT THE
BEACHES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...STRUGGLING TO FALL EVEN BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL...SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE
DEWPOINTS CREEP HIGHER ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT POPS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND. THUS
LOWERED POPS THU-FRI TIME FRAME AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
LIGHT SW WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP KLBT/KFLO IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS AS LOW VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOP. THESE CIGS WILL
REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BE
MID-MORNING AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. VSBYS COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO NEAR 20 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE
TO VFR AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND
LATE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...A RIDGE AXIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
LATE THIS EVE. EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST
ACROSS THE COOL NEAR-SHORE SHELF WATERS. BEYOND 15 NM...OCEAN
TEMPS BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...AND WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET...EXPECT WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST
WATERS TOWARD MORNING. AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE...SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE
PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...
REACHING AROUND 20 KT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE NW WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS TUESDAY...SO AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN 4-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED...AND A SCEC MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP TO
1-2 FT ON THE VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE TO
2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF CAPE FEAR INCREASES FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT (LOWER
INSHORE) EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THU...THEN 3-5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ024-033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 292350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
748 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK...BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...A LATE SEASON FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MONDAY...LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM LBT TO MAO TO MYR. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE UNSEASONABLE/
RECORD COLD FOR THIS WEEK.

A BROAD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE WELL INLAND AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THUS...ONLY PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS GEORGETOWN...WILLIAMSBURG...FLORENCE...
DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...FROST IS EXPECTED
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL...OF CLOUD COVER AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET. THUS A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND FOR HORRY...MARION AND DILLON COUNTIES
IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. ANY FROST ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVE ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 30S BEFORE SLOWING
THEIR DECENT AND STABILIZING. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER THIS EVE AND WILL CREEP HIGHER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE VORTICITY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW IS WEAK AND FAST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND PWATS
RISE TO ONLY 0.75-1.0 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMBINED WITH
OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL STILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY...BUT WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCH RANGE. SREF PLUME MEAN QPF IS ACTUALLY ONLY AROUND 0.05 INCHES
AT ILM...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SC ZONES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LAG THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT IS LACKING ANYWAY. THUS...TEMPS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW 60S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT BETTER THAN THIS PAST WKND...WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLATTENING OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BENEATH ABUNDANT LATE-MARCH SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
AROUND 70 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW 60S AT THE
BEACHES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...STRUGGLING TO FALL EVEN BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL...SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE
DEWPOINTS CREEP HIGHER ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT POPS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND. THUS
LOWERED POPS THU-FRI TIME FRAME AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
LIGHT SW WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP KLBT/KFLO IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS AS LOW VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOP. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BE
MID-MORNING AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. VSBYS COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...BROAD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
TO INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT BY DAYBREAK MON.
POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO
THE OCEAN SFC. ONCE SW WINDS INCREASE...EXPECT SEAS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE
PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...
REACHING AROUND 20 KTS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE NW WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY...SO AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...SW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHEN 4-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED...AND A SCEC MAY BE
REQUIRED MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP TO 1-2 FT ON THE VARIABLE WINDS
TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE TO 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF CAPE FEAR INCREASES FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT (LOWER
INSHORE) EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THU...THEN 3-5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     SCZ024-033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 292350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
748 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK...BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...A LATE SEASON FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MONDAY...LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM LBT TO MAO TO MYR. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE UNSEASONABLE/
RECORD COLD FOR THIS WEEK.

A BROAD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE WELL INLAND AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THUS...ONLY PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS GEORGETOWN...WILLIAMSBURG...FLORENCE...
DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...FROST IS EXPECTED
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL...OF CLOUD COVER AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET. THUS A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND FOR HORRY...MARION AND DILLON COUNTIES
IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. ANY FROST ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVE ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 30S BEFORE SLOWING
THEIR DECENT AND STABILIZING. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER THIS EVE AND WILL CREEP HIGHER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE VORTICITY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW IS WEAK AND FAST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND PWATS
RISE TO ONLY 0.75-1.0 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMBINED WITH
OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL STILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY...BUT WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCH RANGE. SREF PLUME MEAN QPF IS ACTUALLY ONLY AROUND 0.05 INCHES
AT ILM...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SC ZONES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LAG THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT IS LACKING ANYWAY. THUS...TEMPS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW 60S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT BETTER THAN THIS PAST WKND...WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLATTENING OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BENEATH ABUNDANT LATE-MARCH SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
AROUND 70 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW 60S AT THE
BEACHES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...STRUGGLING TO FALL EVEN BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL...SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE
DEWPOINTS CREEP HIGHER ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT POPS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND. THUS
LOWERED POPS THU-FRI TIME FRAME AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
LIGHT SW WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP KLBT/KFLO IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS AS LOW VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOP. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BE
MID-MORNING AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. VSBYS COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...BROAD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
TO INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT BY DAYBREAK MON.
POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO
THE OCEAN SFC. ONCE SW WINDS INCREASE...EXPECT SEAS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE
PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...
REACHING AROUND 20 KTS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE NW WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY...SO AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...SW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHEN 4-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED...AND A SCEC MAY BE
REQUIRED MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP TO 1-2 FT ON THE VARIABLE WINDS
TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE TO 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF CAPE FEAR INCREASES FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT (LOWER
INSHORE) EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THU...THEN 3-5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     SCZ024-033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 292350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
748 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK...BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...A LATE SEASON FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MONDAY...LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM LBT TO MAO TO MYR. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE UNSEASONABLE/
RECORD COLD FOR THIS WEEK.

A BROAD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE WELL INLAND AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THUS...ONLY PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS GEORGETOWN...WILLIAMSBURG...FLORENCE...
DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...FROST IS EXPECTED
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL...OF CLOUD COVER AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET. THUS A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND FOR HORRY...MARION AND DILLON COUNTIES
IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. ANY FROST ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVE ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 30S BEFORE SLOWING
THEIR DECENT AND STABILIZING. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER THIS EVE AND WILL CREEP HIGHER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE VORTICITY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW IS WEAK AND FAST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND PWATS
RISE TO ONLY 0.75-1.0 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMBINED WITH
OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL STILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY...BUT WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCH RANGE. SREF PLUME MEAN QPF IS ACTUALLY ONLY AROUND 0.05 INCHES
AT ILM...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SC ZONES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LAG THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT IS LACKING ANYWAY. THUS...TEMPS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW 60S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT BETTER THAN THIS PAST WKND...WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLATTENING OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BENEATH ABUNDANT LATE-MARCH SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
AROUND 70 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW 60S AT THE
BEACHES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...STRUGGLING TO FALL EVEN BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL...SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE
DEWPOINTS CREEP HIGHER ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT POPS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND. THUS
LOWERED POPS THU-FRI TIME FRAME AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
LIGHT SW WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP KLBT/KFLO IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS AS LOW VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOP. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BE
MID-MORNING AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. VSBYS COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...BROAD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
TO INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT BY DAYBREAK MON.
POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO
THE OCEAN SFC. ONCE SW WINDS INCREASE...EXPECT SEAS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE
PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...
REACHING AROUND 20 KTS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE NW WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY...SO AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...SW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHEN 4-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED...AND A SCEC MAY BE
REQUIRED MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP TO 1-2 FT ON THE VARIABLE WINDS
TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE TO 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF CAPE FEAR INCREASES FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT (LOWER
INSHORE) EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THU...THEN 3-5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     SCZ024-033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 292350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
748 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK...BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...A LATE SEASON FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MONDAY...LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM LBT TO MAO TO MYR. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE UNSEASONABLE/
RECORD COLD FOR THIS WEEK.

A BROAD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE WELL INLAND AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THUS...ONLY PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS GEORGETOWN...WILLIAMSBURG...FLORENCE...
DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...FROST IS EXPECTED
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL...OF CLOUD COVER AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET. THUS A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND FOR HORRY...MARION AND DILLON COUNTIES
IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. ANY FROST ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVE ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 30S BEFORE SLOWING
THEIR DECENT AND STABILIZING. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER THIS EVE AND WILL CREEP HIGHER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE VORTICITY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW IS WEAK AND FAST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND PWATS
RISE TO ONLY 0.75-1.0 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMBINED WITH
OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL STILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY...BUT WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCH RANGE. SREF PLUME MEAN QPF IS ACTUALLY ONLY AROUND 0.05 INCHES
AT ILM...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SC ZONES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LAG THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT IS LACKING ANYWAY. THUS...TEMPS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW 60S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT BETTER THAN THIS PAST WKND...WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLATTENING OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BENEATH ABUNDANT LATE-MARCH SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
AROUND 70 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW 60S AT THE
BEACHES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...STRUGGLING TO FALL EVEN BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL...SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE
DEWPOINTS CREEP HIGHER ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT POPS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND. THUS
LOWERED POPS THU-FRI TIME FRAME AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
LIGHT SW WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED
INVERSION. LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP KLBT/KFLO IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS AS LOW VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOP. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE.

AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BE
MID-MORNING AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. VSBYS COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...BROAD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
TO INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT BY DAYBREAK MON.
POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO
THE OCEAN SFC. ONCE SW WINDS INCREASE...EXPECT SEAS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE
PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...
REACHING AROUND 20 KTS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE NW WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY...SO AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...SW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHEN 4-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED...AND A SCEC MAY BE
REQUIRED MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP TO 1-2 FT ON THE VARIABLE WINDS
TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE TO 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF CAPE FEAR INCREASES FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT (LOWER
INSHORE) EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THU...THEN 3-5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     SCZ024-033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 291947
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM MONDAY...LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MYR TO LBT.

BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD...PROGGED TO
MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
LIKELY DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF EXCELLENT RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS QUICKLY DROP BACK INTO
THE 30S BY 10 PM. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER-SOME EARLY THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. HAVE FOLLOWED
MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS. NEVERTHELESS...SOME FARMERS CROPS AND VEGETATION ACROSS
THE FA ARE AT A CRITICAL JUNCTURE AND WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION AND GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY...HOPEFULLY THE LAST ONE FOR
THIS SEASON.

BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A DECENT LOW LEVEL SSW-SW JET WILL DEVELOP ON
TOP OF THE SFC BASED INVERSION. THE INVERSION STRENGTH WILL KEEP
THESE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC INITIALLY. ONCE CLOUDS START
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
DURING THE PRE-DAWN MON HRS...THE EXCELLENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE ALLOWING SW WINDS AT THE SFC TO
COMMENCE...RESULTING IN TEMPS VERY SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE
EARLY AM MON HOURS. ANY FROST ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE VORTICITY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW IS WEAK AND FAST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND PWATS
RISE TO ONLY 0.75-1.0 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMBINED WITH
OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL STILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY...BUT WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCH RANGE. SREF PLUME MEAN QPF IS ACTUALLY ONLY AROUND 0.05 INCHES
AT ILM...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SC ZONES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LAG THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT IS LACKING ANYWAY. THUS...TEMPS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW 60S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT BETTER THAN THIS PAST WKND...WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLATTENING OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BENEATH ABUNDANT LATE-MARCH SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
AROUND 70 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW 60S AT THE
BEACHES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...STRUGGLING TO FALL EVEN BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL...SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE
DEWPOINTS CREEP HIGHER ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT POPS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND. THUS
LOWERED POPS THU-FRI TIME FRAME AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES DURING DAYTIME MONDAY.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. NW-N WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS WILL
BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST PRIOR TO
THE SFC BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS. ONCE IT DEVELOPS...LOOK FOR
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME CALM AT MOST TERMINALS JUST AFTER
SUNSET. HIGH AND EVENTUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SW
JET WILL EVENTUALLY WEAR DOWN THE SFC BASED INVERSION TOWARD
SUNRISE MONDAY. ON MONDAY...ANTICIPATE SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...BROAD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT THE
MOMENT...WILL DRIFT OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS TO START THE
EVENING. EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE ILM WATERS BY MIDNIGHT...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT BY DAYBREAK
MON. POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN
TO THE OCEAN SFC. WITH LOCAL SSTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...DON/T HOLD
YOUR BREATHE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY BE SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT AND
CONTINUE TO BE A FUNCTION OF LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH
AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND 4.5 SECONDS. NO APPRECIABLE GROUND SWELL IS
PRESENT. ONCE SW WINDS BECOME WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK MON...SIG.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE
PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...
REACHING AROUND 20 KTS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE NW WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY...SO AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...SW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHEN 4-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED...AND A SCEC MAY BE
REQUIRED MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP TO 1-2 FT ON THE VARIABLE WINDS
TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE TO 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF CAPE FEAR INCREASES FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT (LOWER
INSHORE) EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THU...THEN 3-5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     SCZ024-033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 291947
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM MONDAY...LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MYR TO LBT.

BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD...PROGGED TO
MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
LIKELY DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF EXCELLENT RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS QUICKLY DROP BACK INTO
THE 30S BY 10 PM. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER-SOME EARLY THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. HAVE FOLLOWED
MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS. NEVERTHELESS...SOME FARMERS CROPS AND VEGETATION ACROSS
THE FA ARE AT A CRITICAL JUNCTURE AND WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION AND GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY...HOPEFULLY THE LAST ONE FOR
THIS SEASON.

BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A DECENT LOW LEVEL SSW-SW JET WILL DEVELOP ON
TOP OF THE SFC BASED INVERSION. THE INVERSION STRENGTH WILL KEEP
THESE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC INITIALLY. ONCE CLOUDS START
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
DURING THE PRE-DAWN MON HRS...THE EXCELLENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE ALLOWING SW WINDS AT THE SFC TO
COMMENCE...RESULTING IN TEMPS VERY SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE
EARLY AM MON HOURS. ANY FROST ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE VORTICITY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW IS WEAK AND FAST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND PWATS
RISE TO ONLY 0.75-1.0 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMBINED WITH
OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL STILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY...BUT WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCH RANGE. SREF PLUME MEAN QPF IS ACTUALLY ONLY AROUND 0.05 INCHES
AT ILM...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SC ZONES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LAG THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT IS LACKING ANYWAY. THUS...TEMPS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW 60S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT BETTER THAN THIS PAST WKND...WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLATTENING OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BENEATH ABUNDANT LATE-MARCH SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
AROUND 70 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW 60S AT THE
BEACHES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...STRUGGLING TO FALL EVEN BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL...SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE
DEWPOINTS CREEP HIGHER ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT POPS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND. THUS
LOWERED POPS THU-FRI TIME FRAME AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES DURING DAYTIME MONDAY.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. NW-N WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS WILL
BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST PRIOR TO
THE SFC BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS. ONCE IT DEVELOPS...LOOK FOR
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME CALM AT MOST TERMINALS JUST AFTER
SUNSET. HIGH AND EVENTUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SW
JET WILL EVENTUALLY WEAR DOWN THE SFC BASED INVERSION TOWARD
SUNRISE MONDAY. ON MONDAY...ANTICIPATE SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...BROAD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT THE
MOMENT...WILL DRIFT OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS TO START THE
EVENING. EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE ILM WATERS BY MIDNIGHT...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT BY DAYBREAK
MON. POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN
TO THE OCEAN SFC. WITH LOCAL SSTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...DON/T HOLD
YOUR BREATHE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY BE SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT AND
CONTINUE TO BE A FUNCTION OF LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH
AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND 4.5 SECONDS. NO APPRECIABLE GROUND SWELL IS
PRESENT. ONCE SW WINDS BECOME WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK MON...SIG.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE
PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...
REACHING AROUND 20 KTS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE NW WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY...SO AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...SW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHEN 4-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED...AND A SCEC MAY BE
REQUIRED MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP TO 1-2 FT ON THE VARIABLE WINDS
TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE TO 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF CAPE FEAR INCREASES FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT (LOWER
INSHORE) EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THU...THEN 3-5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     SCZ024-033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 291947
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM MONDAY...LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MYR TO LBT.

BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD...PROGGED TO
MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
LIKELY DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF EXCELLENT RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS QUICKLY DROP BACK INTO
THE 30S BY 10 PM. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER-SOME EARLY THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. HAVE FOLLOWED
MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS. NEVERTHELESS...SOME FARMERS CROPS AND VEGETATION ACROSS
THE FA ARE AT A CRITICAL JUNCTURE AND WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION AND GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY...HOPEFULLY THE LAST ONE FOR
THIS SEASON.

BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A DECENT LOW LEVEL SSW-SW JET WILL DEVELOP ON
TOP OF THE SFC BASED INVERSION. THE INVERSION STRENGTH WILL KEEP
THESE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC INITIALLY. ONCE CLOUDS START
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
DURING THE PRE-DAWN MON HRS...THE EXCELLENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE ALLOWING SW WINDS AT THE SFC TO
COMMENCE...RESULTING IN TEMPS VERY SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE
EARLY AM MON HOURS. ANY FROST ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE VORTICITY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW IS WEAK AND FAST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND PWATS
RISE TO ONLY 0.75-1.0 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMBINED WITH
OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL STILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY...BUT WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCH RANGE. SREF PLUME MEAN QPF IS ACTUALLY ONLY AROUND 0.05 INCHES
AT ILM...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SC ZONES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LAG THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT IS LACKING ANYWAY. THUS...TEMPS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW 60S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT BETTER THAN THIS PAST WKND...WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLATTENING OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BENEATH ABUNDANT LATE-MARCH SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
AROUND 70 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW 60S AT THE
BEACHES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...STRUGGLING TO FALL EVEN BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL...SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE
DEWPOINTS CREEP HIGHER ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT POPS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND. THUS
LOWERED POPS THU-FRI TIME FRAME AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES DURING DAYTIME MONDAY.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. NW-N WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS WILL
BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST PRIOR TO
THE SFC BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS. ONCE IT DEVELOPS...LOOK FOR
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME CALM AT MOST TERMINALS JUST AFTER
SUNSET. HIGH AND EVENTUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SW
JET WILL EVENTUALLY WEAR DOWN THE SFC BASED INVERSION TOWARD
SUNRISE MONDAY. ON MONDAY...ANTICIPATE SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...BROAD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT THE
MOMENT...WILL DRIFT OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS TO START THE
EVENING. EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE ILM WATERS BY MIDNIGHT...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT BY DAYBREAK
MON. POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN
TO THE OCEAN SFC. WITH LOCAL SSTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...DON/T HOLD
YOUR BREATHE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY BE SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT AND
CONTINUE TO BE A FUNCTION OF LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH
AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND 4.5 SECONDS. NO APPRECIABLE GROUND SWELL IS
PRESENT. ONCE SW WINDS BECOME WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK MON...SIG.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE
PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...
REACHING AROUND 20 KTS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE NW WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY...SO AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...SW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHEN 4-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED...AND A SCEC MAY BE
REQUIRED MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP TO 1-2 FT ON THE VARIABLE WINDS
TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE TO 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF CAPE FEAR INCREASES FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT (LOWER
INSHORE) EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THU...THEN 3-5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     SCZ024-033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 291947
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM MONDAY...LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MYR TO LBT.

BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD...PROGGED TO
MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
LIKELY DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF EXCELLENT RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS QUICKLY DROP BACK INTO
THE 30S BY 10 PM. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER-SOME EARLY THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. HAVE FOLLOWED
MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS. NEVERTHELESS...SOME FARMERS CROPS AND VEGETATION ACROSS
THE FA ARE AT A CRITICAL JUNCTURE AND WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION AND GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY...HOPEFULLY THE LAST ONE FOR
THIS SEASON.

BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A DECENT LOW LEVEL SSW-SW JET WILL DEVELOP ON
TOP OF THE SFC BASED INVERSION. THE INVERSION STRENGTH WILL KEEP
THESE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC INITIALLY. ONCE CLOUDS START
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
DURING THE PRE-DAWN MON HRS...THE EXCELLENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE ALLOWING SW WINDS AT THE SFC TO
COMMENCE...RESULTING IN TEMPS VERY SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE
EARLY AM MON HOURS. ANY FROST ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE VORTICITY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW IS WEAK AND FAST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND PWATS
RISE TO ONLY 0.75-1.0 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMBINED WITH
OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL STILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY...BUT WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCH RANGE. SREF PLUME MEAN QPF IS ACTUALLY ONLY AROUND 0.05 INCHES
AT ILM...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SC ZONES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LAG THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT IS LACKING ANYWAY. THUS...TEMPS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW 60S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT BETTER THAN THIS PAST WKND...WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLATTENING OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BENEATH ABUNDANT LATE-MARCH SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
AROUND 70 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW 60S AT THE
BEACHES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...STRUGGLING TO FALL EVEN BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL...SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE
DEWPOINTS CREEP HIGHER ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT POPS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND. THUS
LOWERED POPS THU-FRI TIME FRAME AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES DURING DAYTIME MONDAY.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. NW-N WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS WILL
BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST PRIOR TO
THE SFC BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS. ONCE IT DEVELOPS...LOOK FOR
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME CALM AT MOST TERMINALS JUST AFTER
SUNSET. HIGH AND EVENTUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SW
JET WILL EVENTUALLY WEAR DOWN THE SFC BASED INVERSION TOWARD
SUNRISE MONDAY. ON MONDAY...ANTICIPATE SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...BROAD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT THE
MOMENT...WILL DRIFT OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS TO START THE
EVENING. EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE ILM WATERS BY MIDNIGHT...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT BY DAYBREAK
MON. POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN
TO THE OCEAN SFC. WITH LOCAL SSTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...DON/T HOLD
YOUR BREATHE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY BE SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT AND
CONTINUE TO BE A FUNCTION OF LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH
AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND 4.5 SECONDS. NO APPRECIABLE GROUND SWELL IS
PRESENT. ONCE SW WINDS BECOME WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK MON...SIG.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE
PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...
REACHING AROUND 20 KTS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE NW WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY...SO AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...SW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHEN 4-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED...AND A SCEC MAY BE
REQUIRED MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP TO 1-2 FT ON THE VARIABLE WINDS
TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE TO 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF CAPE FEAR INCREASES FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT (LOWER
INSHORE) EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THU...THEN 3-5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     SCZ024-033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 291942
AFDILM

- KRDU 291939
WRKAFD

ZCZC RDUWRKAFD 291937
TTAA00 KRDU DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
341 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK BUT
DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM MONDAY...LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM MYR TO LBT.

BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD...PROGGED TO
MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
LIKELY DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF EXCELLENT RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS QUICKLY DROP BACK INTO
THE 30S BY 10 PM. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER-SOME EARLY THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. HAVE FOLLOWED
MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS. NEVERTHELESS...SOME FARMERS CROPS AND VEGETATION ACROSS
THE FA ARE AT A CRITICAL JUNCTURE AND WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION AND GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY...HOPEFULLY THE LAST ONE FOR
THIS SEASON.

BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A DECENT LOW LEVEL SSW-SW JET WILL DEVELOP ON
TOP OF THE SFC BASED INVERSION. THE INVERSION STRENGTH WILL KEEP
THESE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC INITIALLY. ONCE CLOUDS START
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
DURING THE PRE-DAWN MON HRS...THE EXCELLENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE ALLOWING SW WINDS AT THE SFC TO
COMMENCE...RESULTING IN TEMPS VERY SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE
EARLY AM MON HOURS. ANY FROST ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE VORTICITY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW IS WEAK AND FAST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND PWATS
RISE TO ONLY 0.75-1.0 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMBINED WITH
OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL STILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY...BUT WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCH RANGE. SREF PLUME MEAN QPF IS ACTUALLY ONLY AROUND 0.05 INCHES
AT ILM...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SC ZONES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LAG THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT IS LACKING ANYWAY. THUS...TEMPS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW 60S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT BETTER THAN THIS PAST WKND...WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLATTENING OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BENEATH ABUNDANT LATE-MARCH SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
AROUND 70 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW 60S AT THE
BEACHES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...STRUGGLING TO FALL EVEN BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL...SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE
DEWPOINTS CREEP HIGHER ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT POPS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND. THUS
LOWERED POPS THU-FRI TIME FRAME AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES DURING DAYTIME MONDAY.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. NW-N WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS WILL
BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST PRIOR TO
THE SFC BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS. ONCE IT DEVELOPS...LOOK FOR
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME CALM AT MOST TERMINALS JUST AFTER
SUNSET. HIGH AND EVENTUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SW
JET WILL EVENTUALLY WEAR DOWN THE SFC BASED INVERSION TOWARD
SUNRISE MONDAY. ON MONDAY...ANTICIPATE SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...BROAD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT THE
MOMENT...WILL DRIFT OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS TO START THE
EVENING. EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE ILM WATERS BY MIDNIGHT...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT BY DAYBREAK
MON. POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN
TO THE OCEAN SFC. WITH LOCAL SSTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...DON/T HOLD
YOUR BREATHE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY BE SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT AND
CONTINUE TO BE A FUNCTION OF LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH
AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND 4.5 SECONDS. NO APPRECIABLE GROUND SWELL IS
PRESENT. ONCE SW WINDS BECOME WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK MON...SIG.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE
PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...
REACHING AROUND 20 KTS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE NW WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY...SO AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...SW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHEN 4-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED...AND A SCEC MAY BE
REQUIRED MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP TO 1-2 FT ON THE VARIABLE WINDS
TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE TO 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF CAPE FEAR INCREASES FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT (LOWER
INSHORE) EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THU...THEN 3-5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     SCZ024-033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 291942
AFDILM

- KRDU 291939
WRKAFD

ZCZC RDUWRKAFD 291937
TTAA00 KRDU DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
341 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK BUT
DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM MONDAY...LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM MYR TO LBT.

BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD...PROGGED TO
MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
LIKELY DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF EXCELLENT RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS QUICKLY DROP BACK INTO
THE 30S BY 10 PM. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER-SOME EARLY THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. HAVE FOLLOWED
MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS. NEVERTHELESS...SOME FARMERS CROPS AND VEGETATION ACROSS
THE FA ARE AT A CRITICAL JUNCTURE AND WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION AND GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY...HOPEFULLY THE LAST ONE FOR
THIS SEASON.

BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A DECENT LOW LEVEL SSW-SW JET WILL DEVELOP ON
TOP OF THE SFC BASED INVERSION. THE INVERSION STRENGTH WILL KEEP
THESE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC INITIALLY. ONCE CLOUDS START
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
DURING THE PRE-DAWN MON HRS...THE EXCELLENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE ALLOWING SW WINDS AT THE SFC TO
COMMENCE...RESULTING IN TEMPS VERY SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE
EARLY AM MON HOURS. ANY FROST ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET STAYS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE VORTICITY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW IS WEAK AND FAST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND PWATS
RISE TO ONLY 0.75-1.0 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMBINED WITH
OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL STILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY...BUT WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCH RANGE. SREF PLUME MEAN QPF IS ACTUALLY ONLY AROUND 0.05 INCHES
AT ILM...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SC ZONES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LAG THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT IS LACKING ANYWAY. THUS...TEMPS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW 60S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT BETTER THAN THIS PAST WKND...WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLATTENING OF
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BENEATH ABUNDANT LATE-MARCH SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
AROUND 70 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW 60S AT THE
BEACHES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...STRUGGLING TO FALL EVEN BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT OF
THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL...SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE
DEWPOINTS CREEP HIGHER ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT POPS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND. THUS
LOWERED POPS THU-FRI TIME FRAME AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES DURING DAYTIME MONDAY.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. NW-N WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS WILL
BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST PRIOR TO
THE SFC BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS. ONCE IT DEVELOPS...LOOK FOR
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME CALM AT MOST TERMINALS JUST AFTER
SUNSET. HIGH AND EVENTUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SW
JET WILL EVENTUALLY WEAR DOWN THE SFC BASED INVERSION TOWARD
SUNRISE MONDAY. ON MONDAY...ANTICIPATE SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...BROAD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT THE
MOMENT...WILL DRIFT OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS TO START THE
EVENING. EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE ILM WATERS BY MIDNIGHT...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT BY DAYBREAK
MON. POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN
TO THE OCEAN SFC. WITH LOCAL SSTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...DON/T HOLD
YOUR BREATHE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY BE SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT AND
CONTINUE TO BE A FUNCTION OF LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH
AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND 4.5 SECONDS. NO APPRECIABLE GROUND SWELL IS
PRESENT. ONCE SW WINDS BECOME WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK MON...SIG.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE
PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...
REACHING AROUND 20 KTS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE NW WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY...SO AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...SW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHEN 4-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED...AND A SCEC MAY BE
REQUIRED MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP TO 1-2 FT ON THE VARIABLE WINDS
TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE TO 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF CAPE FEAR INCREASES FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT (LOWER
INSHORE) EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 3 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THU...THEN 3-5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     SCZ024-033-053-054.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DCH/SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 291747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
147 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF
A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAVE INCREASED ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
50S WILL BE ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON AND END UP BEING TODAYS MAX
TEMPERATURES. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES DURING DAYTIME MONDAY.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. NW-N WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS WILL
BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST PRIOR TO
THE SFC BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS. ONCE IT DEVELOPS...LOOK FOR
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME CALM AT MOST TERMINALS JUST AFTER
SUNSET. HIGH AND EVENTUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SW
JET WILL EVENTUALLY WEAR DOWN THE SFC BASED INVERSION TOWARD
SUNRISE MONDAY. ON MONDAY...ANTICIPATE SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE HAS BEGUN TO WANE...WITH THIS
TREND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20
KT...WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND
FURTHER DROP TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...PEAKING THIS MORNING IN THE 2 TO 5 FT
RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...TONIGHT...REMAINS UNCHANGED AT
THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 291747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
147 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF
A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAVE INCREASED ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
50S WILL BE ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON AND END UP BEING TODAYS MAX
TEMPERATURES. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES DURING DAYTIME MONDAY.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. NW-N WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS WILL
BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST PRIOR TO
THE SFC BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS. ONCE IT DEVELOPS...LOOK FOR
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME CALM AT MOST TERMINALS JUST AFTER
SUNSET. HIGH AND EVENTUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SW
JET WILL EVENTUALLY WEAR DOWN THE SFC BASED INVERSION TOWARD
SUNRISE MONDAY. ON MONDAY...ANTICIPATE SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE HAS BEGUN TO WANE...WITH THIS
TREND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20
KT...WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND
FURTHER DROP TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...PEAKING THIS MORNING IN THE 2 TO 5 FT
RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...TONIGHT...REMAINS UNCHANGED AT
THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 291747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
147 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF
A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAVE INCREASED ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
50S WILL BE ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON AND END UP BEING TODAYS MAX
TEMPERATURES. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES DURING DAYTIME MONDAY.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. NW-N WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS WILL
BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST PRIOR TO
THE SFC BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS. ONCE IT DEVELOPS...LOOK FOR
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME CALM AT MOST TERMINALS JUST AFTER
SUNSET. HIGH AND EVENTUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SW
JET WILL EVENTUALLY WEAR DOWN THE SFC BASED INVERSION TOWARD
SUNRISE MONDAY. ON MONDAY...ANTICIPATE SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE HAS BEGUN TO WANE...WITH THIS
TREND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20
KT...WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND
FURTHER DROP TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...PEAKING THIS MORNING IN THE 2 TO 5 FT
RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...TONIGHT...REMAINS UNCHANGED AT
THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 291747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
147 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF
A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAVE INCREASED ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
50S WILL BE ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON AND END UP BEING TODAYS MAX
TEMPERATURES. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES DURING DAYTIME MONDAY.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. NW-N WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS WILL
BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST PRIOR TO
THE SFC BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS. ONCE IT DEVELOPS...LOOK FOR
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME CALM AT MOST TERMINALS JUST AFTER
SUNSET. HIGH AND EVENTUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SW
JET WILL EVENTUALLY WEAR DOWN THE SFC BASED INVERSION TOWARD
SUNRISE MONDAY. ON MONDAY...ANTICIPATE SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS
POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE HAS BEGUN TO WANE...WITH THIS
TREND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20
KT...WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND
FURTHER DROP TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...PEAKING THIS MORNING IN THE 2 TO 5 FT
RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...TONIGHT...REMAINS UNCHANGED AT
THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 291400
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1000 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF
A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAVE INCREASED ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
50S WILL BE ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON AND END UP BEING TODAYS MAX
TEMPERATURES. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A COLD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
BREAKING RECORD LOWS. WILMINGTON`S ALREADY BEEN BROKEN BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING AND MAY TIE RECORDS IN FLORENCE AND
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH IN THE NEXT HOUR.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29)

WILMINGTON          31 IN 2011 ***NOW BROKEN WITH 29***
FLORENCE            28 IN 1966
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH  31 IN 2013

RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION WILL TURN NEUTRAL BY DAYBREAK...WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. FULL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 50-55 ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA AND 55-58 ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA...EXCEPT SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE.

WITH THE HIGH JUST STARTING TO PUSH OFFSHORE AT SUNSET AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY 9 PM. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET PLUS
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP ERODE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
2 AM...PRODUCING A RISING TEMPERATURE CURVE. THE 00Z GFS IS THE
FASTEST MODEL WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT ANY WX OR
POPS. THE BULK OF OTHER MODELS PLUS THE SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS
WILL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY...WITH THE GRADUAL
INFILTRATION OF FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE HAS BEGUN TO WANE...WITH THIS
TREND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20
KT...WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND
FURTHER DROP TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...PEAKING THIS MORNING IN THE 2 TO 5 FT
RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...TONIGHT...REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THISTIME.

PREVIOUS...................................................
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A SURGE LINE MOVED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM...ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. AT THE BEACHES GUSTS ARE REACHING 15
KNOTS WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE AT BUOY 41037 (WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
OFFSHORE BUOY) WINDS ARE GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 KNOTS. THIS SURGE OF
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

A WEAK SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE
THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND INLAND-TO-MARINE AIR TEMP
DIFFERENCES WILL REMAIN SMALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
BEHIND THIS HIGH THIS EVENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

AT THE BUOYS SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE (1 FOOT
NEARSHORE IN THE LEE OF LONG BAY) TO OVER 4 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 1-2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE HIGH...THEN
WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 291400
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1000 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF
A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAVE INCREASED ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
50S WILL BE ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON AND END UP BEING TODAYS MAX
TEMPERATURES. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A COLD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
BREAKING RECORD LOWS. WILMINGTON`S ALREADY BEEN BROKEN BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING AND MAY TIE RECORDS IN FLORENCE AND
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH IN THE NEXT HOUR.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29)

WILMINGTON          31 IN 2011 ***NOW BROKEN WITH 29***
FLORENCE            28 IN 1966
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH  31 IN 2013

RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION WILL TURN NEUTRAL BY DAYBREAK...WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. FULL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 50-55 ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA AND 55-58 ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA...EXCEPT SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE.

WITH THE HIGH JUST STARTING TO PUSH OFFSHORE AT SUNSET AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY 9 PM. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET PLUS
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP ERODE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
2 AM...PRODUCING A RISING TEMPERATURE CURVE. THE 00Z GFS IS THE
FASTEST MODEL WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT ANY WX OR
POPS. THE BULK OF OTHER MODELS PLUS THE SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS
WILL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY...WITH THE GRADUAL
INFILTRATION OF FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE HAS BEGUN TO WANE...WITH THIS
TREND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20
KT...WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND
FURTHER DROP TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...PEAKING THIS MORNING IN THE 2 TO 5 FT
RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...TONIGHT...REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THISTIME.

PREVIOUS...................................................
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A SURGE LINE MOVED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM...ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. AT THE BEACHES GUSTS ARE REACHING 15
KNOTS WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE AT BUOY 41037 (WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
OFFSHORE BUOY) WINDS ARE GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 KNOTS. THIS SURGE OF
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

A WEAK SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE
THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND INLAND-TO-MARINE AIR TEMP
DIFFERENCES WILL REMAIN SMALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
BEHIND THIS HIGH THIS EVENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

AT THE BUOYS SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE (1 FOOT
NEARSHORE IN THE LEE OF LONG BAY) TO OVER 4 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 1-2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE HIGH...THEN
WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 291112
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
712 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A COLD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
BREAKING RECORD LOWS. WILMINGTON`S ALREADY BEEN BROKEN BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING AND MAY TIE RECORDS IN FLORENCE AND
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH IN THE NEXT HOUR.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29)

WILMINGTON          31 IN 2011 ***NOW BROKEN WITH 29***
FLORENCE            28 IN 1966
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH  31 IN 2013

RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION WILL TURN NEUTRAL BY DAYBREAK...WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. FULL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 50-55 ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA AND 55-58 ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA...EXCEPT SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE.

WITH THE HIGH JUST STARTING TO PUSH OFFSHORE AT SUNSET AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY 9 PM. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET PLUS
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP ERODE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
2 AM...PRODUCING A RISING TEMPERATURE CURVE. THE 00Z GFS IS THE
FASTEST MODEL WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT ANY WX OR
POPS. THE BULK OF OTHER MODELS PLUS THE SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS
WILL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY...WITH THE GRADUAL
INFILTRATION OF FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A SURGE LINE MOVED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM...ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. AT THE BEACHES GUSTS ARE REACHING 15
KNOTS WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE AT BUOY 41037 (WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
OFFSHORE BUOY) WINDS ARE GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 KNOTS. THIS SURGE OF
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

A WEAK SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE
THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND INLAND-TO-MARINE AIR TEMP
DIFFERENCES WILL REMAIN SMALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
BEHIND THIS HIGH THIS EVENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

AT THE BUOYS SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE (1 FOOT
NEARSHORE IN THE LEE OF LONG BAY) TO OVER 4 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 1-2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE HIGH...THEN
WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KILM 291112
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
712 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A COLD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
BREAKING RECORD LOWS. WILMINGTON`S ALREADY BEEN BROKEN BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING AND MAY TIE RECORDS IN FLORENCE AND
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH IN THE NEXT HOUR.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29)

WILMINGTON          31 IN 2011 ***NOW BROKEN WITH 29***
FLORENCE            28 IN 1966
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH  31 IN 2013

RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION WILL TURN NEUTRAL BY DAYBREAK...WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. FULL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 50-55 ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA AND 55-58 ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA...EXCEPT SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE.

WITH THE HIGH JUST STARTING TO PUSH OFFSHORE AT SUNSET AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY 9 PM. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET PLUS
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP ERODE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
2 AM...PRODUCING A RISING TEMPERATURE CURVE. THE 00Z GFS IS THE
FASTEST MODEL WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT ANY WX OR
POPS. THE BULK OF OTHER MODELS PLUS THE SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS
WILL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY...WITH THE GRADUAL
INFILTRATION OF FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A SURGE LINE MOVED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM...ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. AT THE BEACHES GUSTS ARE REACHING 15
KNOTS WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE AT BUOY 41037 (WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
OFFSHORE BUOY) WINDS ARE GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 KNOTS. THIS SURGE OF
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

A WEAK SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE
THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND INLAND-TO-MARINE AIR TEMP
DIFFERENCES WILL REMAIN SMALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
BEHIND THIS HIGH THIS EVENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

AT THE BUOYS SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE (1 FOOT
NEARSHORE IN THE LEE OF LONG BAY) TO OVER 4 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 1-2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE HIGH...THEN
WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KILM 291112
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
712 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A COLD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
BREAKING RECORD LOWS. WILMINGTON`S ALREADY BEEN BROKEN BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING AND MAY TIE RECORDS IN FLORENCE AND
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH IN THE NEXT HOUR.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29)

WILMINGTON          31 IN 2011 ***NOW BROKEN WITH 29***
FLORENCE            28 IN 1966
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH  31 IN 2013

RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION WILL TURN NEUTRAL BY DAYBREAK...WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. FULL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 50-55 ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA AND 55-58 ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA...EXCEPT SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE.

WITH THE HIGH JUST STARTING TO PUSH OFFSHORE AT SUNSET AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY 9 PM. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET PLUS
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP ERODE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
2 AM...PRODUCING A RISING TEMPERATURE CURVE. THE 00Z GFS IS THE
FASTEST MODEL WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT ANY WX OR
POPS. THE BULK OF OTHER MODELS PLUS THE SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS
WILL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY...WITH THE GRADUAL
INFILTRATION OF FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A SURGE LINE MOVED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM...ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. AT THE BEACHES GUSTS ARE REACHING 15
KNOTS WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE AT BUOY 41037 (WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
OFFSHORE BUOY) WINDS ARE GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 KNOTS. THIS SURGE OF
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

A WEAK SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE
THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND INLAND-TO-MARINE AIR TEMP
DIFFERENCES WILL REMAIN SMALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
BEHIND THIS HIGH THIS EVENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

AT THE BUOYS SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE (1 FOOT
NEARSHORE IN THE LEE OF LONG BAY) TO OVER 4 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 1-2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE HIGH...THEN
WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KILM 291112
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
712 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A COLD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
BREAKING RECORD LOWS. WILMINGTON`S ALREADY BEEN BROKEN BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING AND MAY TIE RECORDS IN FLORENCE AND
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH IN THE NEXT HOUR.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29)

WILMINGTON          31 IN 2011 ***NOW BROKEN WITH 29***
FLORENCE            28 IN 1966
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH  31 IN 2013

RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION WILL TURN NEUTRAL BY DAYBREAK...WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. FULL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 50-55 ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA AND 55-58 ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA...EXCEPT SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE.

WITH THE HIGH JUST STARTING TO PUSH OFFSHORE AT SUNSET AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY 9 PM. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET PLUS
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP ERODE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
2 AM...PRODUCING A RISING TEMPERATURE CURVE. THE 00Z GFS IS THE
FASTEST MODEL WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT ANY WX OR
POPS. THE BULK OF OTHER MODELS PLUS THE SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS
WILL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY...WITH THE GRADUAL
INFILTRATION OF FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A SURGE LINE MOVED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM...ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. AT THE BEACHES GUSTS ARE REACHING 15
KNOTS WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE AT BUOY 41037 (WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
OFFSHORE BUOY) WINDS ARE GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 KNOTS. THIS SURGE OF
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

A WEAK SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE
THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND INLAND-TO-MARINE AIR TEMP
DIFFERENCES WILL REMAIN SMALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
BEHIND THIS HIGH THIS EVENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

AT THE BUOYS SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE (1 FOOT
NEARSHORE IN THE LEE OF LONG BAY) TO OVER 4 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 1-2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE HIGH...THEN
WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KILM 291042
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
642 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A COLD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
BREAKING RECORD LOWS. WILMINGTON`S ALREADY BEEN BROKEN BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING AND MAY TIE RECORDS IN FLORENCE AND
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH IN THE NEXT HOUR.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29)

WILMINGTON          31 IN 2011 ***NOW BROKEN WITH 29***
FLORENCE            28 IN 1966
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH  31 IN 2013

RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION WILL TURN NEUTRAL BY DAYBREAK...WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. FULL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 50-55 ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA AND 55-58 ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA...EXCEPT SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE.

WITH THE HIGH JUST STARTING TO PUSH OFFSHORE AT SUNSET AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY 9 PM. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET PLUS
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP ERODE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
2 AM...PRODUCING A RISING TEMPERATURE CURVE. THE 00Z GFS IS THE
FASTEST MODEL WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT ANY WX OR
POPS. THE BULK OF OTHER MODELS PLUS THE SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
NO FOG EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE GREATER
THAN 10 DEGREES. ALSO N WINDS WILL BE AOB 7 KT THROUGH SUNRISE.

N WIND SPEEDS AFTER DAYBREAK WILL INCREASE SOME...BUT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SW-W DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
DURING THE EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A SURGE LINE MOVED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM...ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. AT THE BEACHES GUSTS ARE REACHING 15
KNOTS WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE AT BUOY 41037 (WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
OFFSHORE BUOY) WINDS ARE GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 KNOTS. THIS SURGE OF
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

A WEAK SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE
THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND INLAND-TO-MARINE AIR TEMP
DIFFERENCES WILL REMAIN SMALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
BEHIND THIS HIGH THIS EVENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

AT THE BUOYS SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE (1 FOOT
NEARSHORE IN THE LEE OF LONG BAY) TO OVER 4 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 1-2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE HIGH...THEN
WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 290723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A COLD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
THREATENING TO TIE OR BREAK RECORD LOWS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS KEEPING ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS NOW TO GENERATE 5-10
MPH WINDS AND IS PRECLUDING A NOCTURNAL SURFACE INVERSION. JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK WINDS MAY BECOME VERY LIGHT OR CALM CREATING A
NARROW WINDOW FOR RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION STRENGTHENS.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29)

WILMINGTON          31 IN 2011
FLORENCE            28 IN 1966
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH  31 IN 2013

RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION WILL TURN NEUTRAL BY DAYBREAK...WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. FULL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 52-55 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA
AND 55-58 ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA...EXCEPT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
AT THE BEACHES WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE.

WITH THE HIGH JUST STARTING TO PUSH OFFSHORE AT SUNSET AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY 9 PM. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET PLUS
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP ERODE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
2 AM...PRODUCING A RISING TEMPERATURE CURVE. THE 00Z GFS IS THE
FASTEST MODEL WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT ANY WX OR
POPS. THE BULK OF OTHER MODELS PLUS THE SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
NO FOG EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE GREATER
THAN 10 DEGREES. ALSO N WINDS WILL BE AOB 7 KT THROUGH SUNRISE.

N WIND SPEEDS AFTER DAYBREAK WILL INCREASE SOME...BUT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SW-W DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
DURING THE EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A SURGE LINE MOVED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM...ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. AT THE BEACHES GUSTS ARE REACHING 15
KNOTS WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE AT BUOY 41037 (WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
OFFSHORE BUOY) WINDS ARE GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 KNOTS. THIS SURGE OF
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LAST ONLY UNTIL DAYBREAK BEFORE
DIMINISHING QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

A WEAK SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE
THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND INLAND-TO-MARINE AIR TEMP
DIFFERENCES WILL REMAIN SMALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
BEHIND THIS HIGH THIS EVENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

AT THE BUOYS SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE (1 FOOT
NEARSHORE IN THE LEE OF LONG BAY) TO OVER 4 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 1-2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE HIGH...THEN
WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/TRA





000
FXUS62 KILM 290723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A COLD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
THREATENING TO TIE OR BREAK RECORD LOWS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS KEEPING ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS NOW TO GENERATE 5-10
MPH WINDS AND IS PRECLUDING A NOCTURNAL SURFACE INVERSION. JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK WINDS MAY BECOME VERY LIGHT OR CALM CREATING A
NARROW WINDOW FOR RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION STRENGTHENS.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29)

WILMINGTON          31 IN 2011
FLORENCE            28 IN 1966
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH  31 IN 2013

RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION WILL TURN NEUTRAL BY DAYBREAK...WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. FULL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 52-55 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA
AND 55-58 ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA...EXCEPT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
AT THE BEACHES WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE.

WITH THE HIGH JUST STARTING TO PUSH OFFSHORE AT SUNSET AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY 9 PM. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET PLUS
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP ERODE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
2 AM...PRODUCING A RISING TEMPERATURE CURVE. THE 00Z GFS IS THE
FASTEST MODEL WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT ANY WX OR
POPS. THE BULK OF OTHER MODELS PLUS THE SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
NO FOG EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE GREATER
THAN 10 DEGREES. ALSO N WINDS WILL BE AOB 7 KT THROUGH SUNRISE.

N WIND SPEEDS AFTER DAYBREAK WILL INCREASE SOME...BUT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SW-W DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
DURING THE EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A SURGE LINE MOVED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM...ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. AT THE BEACHES GUSTS ARE REACHING 15
KNOTS WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE AT BUOY 41037 (WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
OFFSHORE BUOY) WINDS ARE GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 KNOTS. THIS SURGE OF
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LAST ONLY UNTIL DAYBREAK BEFORE
DIMINISHING QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

A WEAK SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE
THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND INLAND-TO-MARINE AIR TEMP
DIFFERENCES WILL REMAIN SMALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
BEHIND THIS HIGH THIS EVENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

AT THE BUOYS SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE (1 FOOT
NEARSHORE IN THE LEE OF LONG BAY) TO OVER 4 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 1-2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE HIGH...THEN
WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/TRA




000
FXUS62 KILM 290723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A COLD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
THREATENING TO TIE OR BREAK RECORD LOWS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS KEEPING ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS NOW TO GENERATE 5-10
MPH WINDS AND IS PRECLUDING A NOCTURNAL SURFACE INVERSION. JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK WINDS MAY BECOME VERY LIGHT OR CALM CREATING A
NARROW WINDOW FOR RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION STRENGTHENS.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29)

WILMINGTON          31 IN 2011
FLORENCE            28 IN 1966
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH  31 IN 2013

RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION WILL TURN NEUTRAL BY DAYBREAK...WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. FULL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 52-55 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA
AND 55-58 ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA...EXCEPT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
AT THE BEACHES WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE.

WITH THE HIGH JUST STARTING TO PUSH OFFSHORE AT SUNSET AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY 9 PM. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET PLUS
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP ERODE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
2 AM...PRODUCING A RISING TEMPERATURE CURVE. THE 00Z GFS IS THE
FASTEST MODEL WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT ANY WX OR
POPS. THE BULK OF OTHER MODELS PLUS THE SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
NO FOG EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE GREATER
THAN 10 DEGREES. ALSO N WINDS WILL BE AOB 7 KT THROUGH SUNRISE.

N WIND SPEEDS AFTER DAYBREAK WILL INCREASE SOME...BUT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SW-W DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
DURING THE EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A SURGE LINE MOVED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM...ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. AT THE BEACHES GUSTS ARE REACHING 15
KNOTS WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE AT BUOY 41037 (WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
OFFSHORE BUOY) WINDS ARE GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 KNOTS. THIS SURGE OF
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LAST ONLY UNTIL DAYBREAK BEFORE
DIMINISHING QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

A WEAK SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE
THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND INLAND-TO-MARINE AIR TEMP
DIFFERENCES WILL REMAIN SMALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
BEHIND THIS HIGH THIS EVENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

AT THE BUOYS SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE (1 FOOT
NEARSHORE IN THE LEE OF LONG BAY) TO OVER 4 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 1-2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE HIGH...THEN
WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/TRA





000
FXUS62 KILM 290723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A COLD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
THREATENING TO TIE OR BREAK RECORD LOWS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS KEEPING ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS NOW TO GENERATE 5-10
MPH WINDS AND IS PRECLUDING A NOCTURNAL SURFACE INVERSION. JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK WINDS MAY BECOME VERY LIGHT OR CALM CREATING A
NARROW WINDOW FOR RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION STRENGTHENS.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29)

WILMINGTON          31 IN 2011
FLORENCE            28 IN 1966
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH  31 IN 2013

RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION WILL TURN NEUTRAL BY DAYBREAK...WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. FULL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 52-55 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA
AND 55-58 ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA...EXCEPT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
AT THE BEACHES WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE.

WITH THE HIGH JUST STARTING TO PUSH OFFSHORE AT SUNSET AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY 9 PM. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET PLUS
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP ERODE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
2 AM...PRODUCING A RISING TEMPERATURE CURVE. THE 00Z GFS IS THE
FASTEST MODEL WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT ANY WX OR
POPS. THE BULK OF OTHER MODELS PLUS THE SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
NO FOG EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE GREATER
THAN 10 DEGREES. ALSO N WINDS WILL BE AOB 7 KT THROUGH SUNRISE.

N WIND SPEEDS AFTER DAYBREAK WILL INCREASE SOME...BUT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SW-W DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
DURING THE EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A SURGE LINE MOVED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM...ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. AT THE BEACHES GUSTS ARE REACHING 15
KNOTS WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE AT BUOY 41037 (WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
OFFSHORE BUOY) WINDS ARE GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 KNOTS. THIS SURGE OF
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LAST ONLY UNTIL DAYBREAK BEFORE
DIMINISHING QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

A WEAK SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE
THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND INLAND-TO-MARINE AIR TEMP
DIFFERENCES WILL REMAIN SMALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
BEHIND THIS HIGH THIS EVENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

AT THE BUOYS SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE (1 FOOT
NEARSHORE IN THE LEE OF LONG BAY) TO OVER 4 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 1-2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE HIGH...THEN
WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/TRA




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