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000
FXUS62 KILM 210520
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1220 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL KEEP CLOUDY
AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES
UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. BREEZY BUT CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SHORTWAVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS IS ENABLING THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO
BUCKLE INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS EVENING. THUS THE SWATH OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
SC AND SOUTHEASTERN GA...MOVING E-NE. THINK MOST OF THIS VERY LOW
QPF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
DOESN`T RETURN IN EARNEST ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL SUNDAY. HAVE HEDGE
POPS UPWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY 1200 UTC SUN. OTHERWISE
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER
TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BUMPED UP MINS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THIS TREND... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PEE DEE AND LBT AREA WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL HANGING ON IN THE
LOWER 40S. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A GOOD BET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...DREARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE AND A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY
REMAINING DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THERE COULD BE THE ISOLATED
SPRINKLE OR MORE LIKELY PATCH OF DRIZZLE BUT OVERCAST SKIES AND COOL
CONDITIONS SHOULD DO IT.

A 300MB JET STREAK BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS PAINT MOST OF THE HEAVIER QPF
OFFSHORE WHERE THE BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT RESIDES. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE RESIDES WEST OF I-95 AND THE
COAST IS LEFT IN BETWEEN WITH WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER THE QPF AMOUNTS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE ARE CERTAINLY NOT IMPRESSIVE MAKING THE
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS FAIRLY PALTRY. BEYOND MONDAY MORNING THE BEST
FORCING MOVES OFF QUICKLY LEAVING OVERCAST/DRIZZLY SKIES.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OTHER THAN MONDAYS
HIGHS WHEN THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS ARE MUCH WARMER. HARD TO TRUST THESE
HOWEVER AS SURFACE PRESSURE PLOTS SHOW THE WEDGE...ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING REMAINING IN PLACE. I DID USE A BLEND BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT BULLETINS FROM THE GFS COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WEDGE WILL BE ERODED ON TUES AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AT THE SAME TIME
A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO TEXAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST. A DEEP S-SW FLOW
WILL BRING PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. INITIALLY ON TUES SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
AS THE WARMER AIR OVERRIDES IT PRODUCING INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE WINDS WILL
COME AROUND WITH WARMER AND MOISTER AIR FLOWING IN. ALWAYS TOUGH TO
TIME THIS AS COLD DENSE AIR HOLDS ON LONGER THAN MODELS USUALLY
PREDICT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH LATE DAY WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE TUES NIGHT INTO WED.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN AHEAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUES
NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET UP TO 40 KTS WILL COMBINE WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO
WED. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND LOCAL AREA GETS INTO BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WED AFTN

THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WED
NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP
TO WET WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI LEAVING A LIGHT
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS FRI INTO SATURDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT BUT LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE LACKING ANY DEEP MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT CIGS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR OVERNIGHT
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
3-6KFT LAYER REMAINS SATURATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO STRATOCU
WILL PERSIST AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE A FEW PATCHES OF 800-1000 FT STRATUS OUT THERE TONIGHT...DO
NOT ANTICIPATE PERSISTENT CIGS AT THESE LEVELS BASED ON THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
BRINGS MORE -RA AND LOWERS THEM BACK DOWN TO MVFR AGAIN. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 15Z AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND AFTER 18Z AT
KILM/KLBT. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
AFTER 00Z MON...CIGS WILL DROP FURTHER AS RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IFR CIGS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL SITES MVFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY MON WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED TUE/WED
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WED/THU BEFORE AND AFTER
FROPA. THU WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NORTH TO NORTHEAST FETCH WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND
RIDGING FROM THE NORTH HAS RESULTED IN STEEP 3 TO 5 FT. THE
DOMINANT PERIOD IS AROUND 5 SECONDS THIS EVENING...AND A SIMILAR
SEA STATE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN IS
EXITING THE CAPE FEAR COASTAL WATERS. TRENDS FOR INCREASING LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN WATERS...DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...A FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY IN BETWEEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP
ALONG THIS FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY.
SPEEDS THROUGHOUT WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE SOMEWHAT PROLONGED NATURE OF THE WINDS...3-5 FEET.
CANT RULE OUT A FEW SIX FOOTERS BUT THINK A SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE CAN
BE AVOIDED. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY ALTHOUGH
THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE THE SAME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
CAROLINA COAST ON TUES WITH WINDS COMING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY BY TUES EVENING.

A LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FLOW TUES NIGHT
INTO WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS TUES NIGHT INTO WED
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY
TUES TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT
BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7 TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN
STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WED
INTO WED NIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WED AND LASTING INTO
THURS WITH HIGHEST SEAS GETTING PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE IN STRONGER
W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/III/RGZ/SHK






000
FXUS62 KILM 210243
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
943 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL KEEP CLOUDY
AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES
UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. BREEZY BUT CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS IS ENABLING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM TO BUCKLE INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS EVENING.
THUS THE SWATH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN SC AND SOUTHEASTERN GA...MOVING E-NE. THINK MOST OF THIS
VERY LOW QPF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT DOESN`T RETURN IN EARNEST ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL SUNDAY. HAVE
HEDGE POPS UPWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY 1200 UTC SUN.
OTHERWISE WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND AMPLE
CLOUD COVER TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BUMPED UP MINS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THIS TREND... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PEE DEE AND LBT AREA WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL HANGING ON IN
THE LOWER 40S. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A GOOD BET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...DREARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE AND A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY
REMAINING DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THERE COULD BE THE ISOLATED
SPRINKLE OR MORE LIKELY PATCH OF DRIZZLE BUT OVERCAST SKIES AND COOL
CONDITIONS SHOULD DO IT.

A 300MB JET STREAK BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS PAINT MOST OF THE HEAVIER QPF
OFFSHORE WHERE THE BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT RESIDES. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE RESIDES WEST OF I-95 AND THE
COAST IS LEFT IN BETWEEN WITH WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER THE QPF AMOUNTS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE ARE CERTAINLY NOT IMPRESSIVE MAKING THE
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS FAIRLY PALTRY. BEYOND MONDAY MORNING THE BEST
FORCING MOVES OFF QUICKLY LEAVING OVERCAST/DRIZZLY SKIES.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OTHER THAN MONDAYS
HIGHS WHEN THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS ARE MUCH WARMER. HARD TO TRUST THESE
HOWEVER AS SURFACE PRESSURE PLOTS SHOW THE WEDGE...ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING REMAINING IN PLACE. I DID USE A BLEND BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT BULLETINS FROM THE GFS COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WEDGE WILL BE ERODED ON TUES AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AT THE SAME TIME
A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO TEXAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST. A DEEP S-SW FLOW
WILL BRING PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. INITIALLY ON TUES SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
AS THE WARMER AIR OVERRIDES IT PRODUCING INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE WINDS WILL
COME AROUND WITH WARMER AND MOISTER AIR FLOWING IN. ALWAYS TOUGH TO
TIME THIS AS COLD DENSE AIR HOLDS ON LONGER THAN MODELS USUALLY
PREDICT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH LATE DAY WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE TUES NIGHT INTO WED.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN AHEAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUES
NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET UP TO 40 KTS WILL COMBINE WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO
WED. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND LOCAL AREA GETS INTO BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WED AFTN

THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WED
NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP
TO WET WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI LEAVING A LIGHT
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS FRI INTO SATURDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT BUT LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE LACKING ANY DEEP MOISTURE.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CIGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN MVFR/VFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FCST SOUNDINGS REMAIN SATURATED IN THE 3-10KFT LAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT...LOWEST AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE HAVE BEEN PATCHES OF STRATUS AROUND 1KFT
REPORTED ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS TONIGHT AS FCST SOUNDINGS NEVER COMPLETELY LOCK
IN THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE LATEST HRRR AND SREF CIG PROBS ALSO
SUPPORT KEEPING IFR OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. IN FACT...CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD DAYBREAK IF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE
CORRECT. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING MORE
-RA/DZ TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND AFTER 18Z AT
KILM/KLBT. THIS SHOULD AGAIN HELP LOWER CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY MON WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WED/THU BEFORE AND AFTER FROPA.
THU WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SATURDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FETCH WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND RIDGING FROM THE NORTH HAS RESULTED IN STEEP 3 TO 5
FT. THE DOMINANT PERIOD IS AROUND 5 SECONDS THIS EVENING...AND A
SIMILAR SEA STATE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN
IS EXITING THE CAPE FEAR COASTAL WATERS. TRENDS FOR INCREASING LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN WATERS...DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...A FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY IN BETWEEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP
ALONG THIS FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY.
SPEEDS THROUGHOUT WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE SOMEWHAT PROLONGED NATURE OF THE WINDS...3-5 FEET.
CANT RULE OUT A FEW SIX FOOTERS BUT THINK A SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE CAN
BE AVOIDED. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY ALTHOUGH
THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE THE SAME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
CAROLINA COAST ON TUES WITH WINDS COMING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY BY TUES EVENING.

A LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FLOW TUES NIGHT
INTO WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS TUES NIGHT INTO WED
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY
TUES TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT
BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7 TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN
STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WED
INTO WED NIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WED AND LASTING INTO
THURS WITH HIGHEST SEAS GETTING PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE IN STRONGER
W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 210243
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
943 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL KEEP CLOUDY
AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES
UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. BREEZY BUT CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS IS ENABLING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM TO BUCKLE INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS EVENING.
THUS THE SWATH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN SC AND SOUTHEASTERN GA...MOVING E-NE. THINK MOST OF THIS
VERY LOW QPF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT DOESN`T RETURN IN EARNEST ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL SUNDAY. HAVE
HEDGE POPS UPWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY 1200 UTC SUN.
OTHERWISE WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND AMPLE
CLOUD COVER TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BUMPED UP MINS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THIS TREND... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PEE DEE AND LBT AREA WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL HANGING ON IN
THE LOWER 40S. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A GOOD BET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...DREARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A
PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE AND A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY
REMAINING DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THERE COULD BE THE ISOLATED
SPRINKLE OR MORE LIKELY PATCH OF DRIZZLE BUT OVERCAST SKIES AND COOL
CONDITIONS SHOULD DO IT.

A 300MB JET STREAK BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS PAINT MOST OF THE HEAVIER QPF
OFFSHORE WHERE THE BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT RESIDES. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE RESIDES WEST OF I-95 AND THE
COAST IS LEFT IN BETWEEN WITH WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER THE QPF AMOUNTS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE ARE CERTAINLY NOT IMPRESSIVE MAKING THE
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS FAIRLY PALTRY. BEYOND MONDAY MORNING THE BEST
FORCING MOVES OFF QUICKLY LEAVING OVERCAST/DRIZZLY SKIES.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OTHER THAN MONDAYS
HIGHS WHEN THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS ARE MUCH WARMER. HARD TO TRUST THESE
HOWEVER AS SURFACE PRESSURE PLOTS SHOW THE WEDGE...ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING REMAINING IN PLACE. I DID USE A BLEND BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT BULLETINS FROM THE GFS COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WEDGE WILL BE ERODED ON TUES AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AT THE SAME TIME
A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO TEXAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST. A DEEP S-SW FLOW
WILL BRING PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. INITIALLY ON TUES SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
AS THE WARMER AIR OVERRIDES IT PRODUCING INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE WINDS WILL
COME AROUND WITH WARMER AND MOISTER AIR FLOWING IN. ALWAYS TOUGH TO
TIME THIS AS COLD DENSE AIR HOLDS ON LONGER THAN MODELS USUALLY
PREDICT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH LATE DAY WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE TUES NIGHT INTO WED.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN AHEAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUES
NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET UP TO 40 KTS WILL COMBINE WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO
WED. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND LOCAL AREA GETS INTO BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WED AFTN

THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WED
NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP
TO WET WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI LEAVING A LIGHT
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS FRI INTO SATURDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT BUT LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE LACKING ANY DEEP MOISTURE.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CIGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN MVFR/VFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FCST SOUNDINGS REMAIN SATURATED IN THE 3-10KFT LAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT...LOWEST AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE HAVE BEEN PATCHES OF STRATUS AROUND 1KFT
REPORTED ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS TONIGHT AS FCST SOUNDINGS NEVER COMPLETELY LOCK
IN THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE LATEST HRRR AND SREF CIG PROBS ALSO
SUPPORT KEEPING IFR OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. IN FACT...CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD DAYBREAK IF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE
CORRECT. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING MORE
-RA/DZ TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND AFTER 18Z AT
KILM/KLBT. THIS SHOULD AGAIN HELP LOWER CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY MON WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WED/THU BEFORE AND AFTER FROPA.
THU WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SATURDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FETCH WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND RIDGING FROM THE NORTH HAS RESULTED IN STEEP 3 TO 5
FT. THE DOMINANT PERIOD IS AROUND 5 SECONDS THIS EVENING...AND A
SIMILAR SEA STATE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN
IS EXITING THE CAPE FEAR COASTAL WATERS. TRENDS FOR INCREASING LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN WATERS...DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...A FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY IN BETWEEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP
ALONG THIS FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY.
SPEEDS THROUGHOUT WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE SOMEWHAT PROLONGED NATURE OF THE WINDS...3-5 FEET.
CANT RULE OUT A FEW SIX FOOTERS BUT THINK A SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE CAN
BE AVOIDED. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY ALTHOUGH
THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE THE SAME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
CAROLINA COAST ON TUES WITH WINDS COMING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY BY TUES EVENING.

A LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FLOW TUES NIGHT
INTO WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS TUES NIGHT INTO WED
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY
TUES TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT
BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7 TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN
STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WED
INTO WED NIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WED AND LASTING INTO
THURS WITH HIGHEST SEAS GETTING PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE IN STRONGER
W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 202331
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
631 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL KEEP CLOUDY
AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN HAS EXITED THE
COAST AS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS.
MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UPWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC ZONES...AS NEXT
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT COMES INTO PLAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP SHIELD ENTERING THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS DRYING WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST
TO EAST...REACHING THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME. THIS IS DOWN TO A SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE WINDS IN THE 2-4K FT AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT THE LAYER ABOVE 800 MB DRIES OUT IN PART DUE TO DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE THE WEDGE HOLDS ON WITH LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW MAINTAINING A STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB REMAINS ELEVATED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY LAYER AS BEING SATURATED. WILL NOT CARRY
ANY MENTION OF DRIZZLE BUT MAY MENTION FOG EARLY SUN MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO NOT GO CALM BUT THEY WILL BE LIGHT.
COMBINED WITH RECENT PRECIP THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH LOWEST VIS WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
3 OR 4 MILES...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUANCE OF DFA. LOWS END UP A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO...A COMBINATION OF HIGHS 10 DEGREES TODAY BELOW
CLIMO...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND SUBTLE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
EXITING 5H SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 330
PM SATURDAY...DREARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A PERSISTENT
BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY REMAINING DRY FOR THE
MOST PART. THERE COULD BE THE ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR MORE LIKELY PATCH
OF DRIZZLE BUT OVERCAST SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS SHOULD DO IT.

A 300MB JET STREAK BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS PAINT MOST OF THE HEAVIER QPF
OFFSHORE WHERE THE BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT RESIDES. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE RESIDES WEST OF I-95 AND THE
COAST IS LEFT IN BETWEEN WITH WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER THE QPF AMOUNTS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE ARE CERTAINLY NOT IMPRESSIVE MAKING THE
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS FAIRLY PALTRY. BEYOND MONDAY MORNING THE BEST
FORCING MOVES OFF QUICKLY LEAVING OVERCAST/DRIZZLY SKIES.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OTHER THAN MONDAYS
HIGHS WHEN THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS ARE MUCH WARMER. HARD TO TRUST THESE
HOWEVER AS SURFACE PRESSURE PLOTS SHOW THE WEDGE...ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING REMAINING IN PLACE. I DID USE A BLEND BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT BULLETINS FROM THE GFS COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WEDGE WILL BE ERODED ON TUES AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AT THE SAME TIME
A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO TEXAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST. A DEEP S-SW FLOW
WILL BRING PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. INITIALLY ON TUES SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
AS THE WARMER AIR OVERRIDES IT PRODUCING INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE WINDS WILL
COME AROUND WITH WARMER AND MOISTER AIR FLOWING IN. ALWAYS TOUGH TO
TIME THIS AS COLD DENSE AIR HOLDS ON LONGER THAN MODELS USUALLY
PREDICT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH LATE DAY WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE TUES NIGHT INTO WED.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN AHEAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUES
NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET UP TO 40 KTS WILL COMBINE WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO
WED. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND LOCAL AREA GETS INTO BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WED AFTN

THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WED
NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP
TO WET WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI LEAVING A LIGHT
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS FRI INTO SATURDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT BUT LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE LACKING ANY DEEP MOISTURE.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CIGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN MVFR/VFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FCST SOUNDINGS REMAIN SATURATED IN THE 3-10KFT LAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT...LOWEST AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE HAVE BEEN PATCHES OF STRATUS AROUND 1KFT
REPORTED ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS TONIGHT AS FCST SOUNDINGS NEVER COMPLETELY LOCK
IN THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE LATEST HRRR AND SREF CIG PROBS ALSO
SUPPORT KEEPING IFR OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. IN FACT...CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD DAYBREAK IF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE
CORRECT. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING MORE
-RA/DZ TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND AFTER 18Z AT
KILM/KLBT. THIS SHOULD AGAIN HELP LOWER CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY MON WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WED/THU BEFORE AND AFTER FROPA.
THU WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE LATEST CWF ISSUANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT MAY BRIEFLY JUMP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. EXIT OF SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH REASSERTING ITSELF SO GRADIENT DOES NOT CHANGE A
LOT. 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH
SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT...TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COAST WHERE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 2 FT CLOSER TO SHORE.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO SCEC ADVISORY DO NOT
PLAN TO RAISE ONE AT THIS TIME. MAINLY BECAUSE THE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDER WHAT WAS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE ALREADY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW...THOUGH THE EVENING SHIFT MAY DECIDE TO RAISE ONE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...A FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY IN BETWEEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP
ALONG THIS FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY.
SPEEDS THROUGHOUT WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE SOMEWHAT PROLONGED NATURE OF THE WINDS...3-5 FEET.
CANT RULE OUT A FEW SIX FOOTERS BUT THINK A SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE CAN
BE AVOIDED. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY ALTHOUGH
THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE THE SAME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
CAROLINA COAST ON TUES WITH WINDS COMING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY BY TUES EVENING.

A LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FLOW TUES NIGHT
INTO WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS TUES NIGHT INTO WED
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY
TUES TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT
BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7 TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN
STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WED
INTO WED NIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WED AND LASTING INTO
THURS WITH HIGHEST SEAS GETTING PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE IN STRONGER
W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR










000
FXUS62 KILM 202331
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
631 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL KEEP CLOUDY
AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN HAS EXITED THE
COAST AS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS.
MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UPWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC ZONES...AS NEXT
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT COMES INTO PLAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP SHIELD ENTERING THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS DRYING WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST
TO EAST...REACHING THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME. THIS IS DOWN TO A SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE WINDS IN THE 2-4K FT AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT THE LAYER ABOVE 800 MB DRIES OUT IN PART DUE TO DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE THE WEDGE HOLDS ON WITH LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW MAINTAINING A STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB REMAINS ELEVATED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY LAYER AS BEING SATURATED. WILL NOT CARRY
ANY MENTION OF DRIZZLE BUT MAY MENTION FOG EARLY SUN MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO NOT GO CALM BUT THEY WILL BE LIGHT.
COMBINED WITH RECENT PRECIP THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH LOWEST VIS WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
3 OR 4 MILES...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUANCE OF DFA. LOWS END UP A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO...A COMBINATION OF HIGHS 10 DEGREES TODAY BELOW
CLIMO...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND SUBTLE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
EXITING 5H SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 330
PM SATURDAY...DREARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A PERSISTENT
BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY REMAINING DRY FOR THE
MOST PART. THERE COULD BE THE ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR MORE LIKELY PATCH
OF DRIZZLE BUT OVERCAST SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS SHOULD DO IT.

A 300MB JET STREAK BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS PAINT MOST OF THE HEAVIER QPF
OFFSHORE WHERE THE BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT RESIDES. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE RESIDES WEST OF I-95 AND THE
COAST IS LEFT IN BETWEEN WITH WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER THE QPF AMOUNTS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE ARE CERTAINLY NOT IMPRESSIVE MAKING THE
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS FAIRLY PALTRY. BEYOND MONDAY MORNING THE BEST
FORCING MOVES OFF QUICKLY LEAVING OVERCAST/DRIZZLY SKIES.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OTHER THAN MONDAYS
HIGHS WHEN THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS ARE MUCH WARMER. HARD TO TRUST THESE
HOWEVER AS SURFACE PRESSURE PLOTS SHOW THE WEDGE...ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING REMAINING IN PLACE. I DID USE A BLEND BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT BULLETINS FROM THE GFS COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WEDGE WILL BE ERODED ON TUES AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AT THE SAME TIME
A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO TEXAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST. A DEEP S-SW FLOW
WILL BRING PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. INITIALLY ON TUES SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
AS THE WARMER AIR OVERRIDES IT PRODUCING INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE WINDS WILL
COME AROUND WITH WARMER AND MOISTER AIR FLOWING IN. ALWAYS TOUGH TO
TIME THIS AS COLD DENSE AIR HOLDS ON LONGER THAN MODELS USUALLY
PREDICT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH LATE DAY WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE TUES NIGHT INTO WED.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN AHEAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUES
NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET UP TO 40 KTS WILL COMBINE WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO
WED. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND LOCAL AREA GETS INTO BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WED AFTN

THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WED
NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP
TO WET WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI LEAVING A LIGHT
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS FRI INTO SATURDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT BUT LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE LACKING ANY DEEP MOISTURE.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CIGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN MVFR/VFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
FCST SOUNDINGS REMAIN SATURATED IN THE 3-10KFT LAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT...LOWEST AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE HAVE BEEN PATCHES OF STRATUS AROUND 1KFT
REPORTED ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS TONIGHT AS FCST SOUNDINGS NEVER COMPLETELY LOCK
IN THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE LATEST HRRR AND SREF CIG PROBS ALSO
SUPPORT KEEPING IFR OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. IN FACT...CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD DAYBREAK IF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE
CORRECT. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING MORE
-RA/DZ TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND AFTER 18Z AT
KILM/KLBT. THIS SHOULD AGAIN HELP LOWER CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY MON WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WED/THU BEFORE AND AFTER FROPA.
THU WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE LATEST CWF ISSUANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT MAY BRIEFLY JUMP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. EXIT OF SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH REASSERTING ITSELF SO GRADIENT DOES NOT CHANGE A
LOT. 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH
SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT...TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COAST WHERE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 2 FT CLOSER TO SHORE.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO SCEC ADVISORY DO NOT
PLAN TO RAISE ONE AT THIS TIME. MAINLY BECAUSE THE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDER WHAT WAS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE ALREADY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW...THOUGH THE EVENING SHIFT MAY DECIDE TO RAISE ONE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...A FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY IN BETWEEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP
ALONG THIS FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY.
SPEEDS THROUGHOUT WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE SOMEWHAT PROLONGED NATURE OF THE WINDS...3-5 FEET.
CANT RULE OUT A FEW SIX FOOTERS BUT THINK A SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE CAN
BE AVOIDED. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY ALTHOUGH
THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE THE SAME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
CAROLINA COAST ON TUES WITH WINDS COMING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY BY TUES EVENING.

A LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FLOW TUES NIGHT
INTO WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS TUES NIGHT INTO WED
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY
TUES TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT
BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7 TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN
STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WED
INTO WED NIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WED AND LASTING INTO
THURS WITH HIGHEST SEAS GETTING PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE IN STRONGER
W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR









000
FXUS62 KILM 202316
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
616 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL KEEP CLOUDY
AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN HAS EXITED THE
COAST AS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS.
MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UPWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC ZONES...AS NEXT
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT COMES INTO PLAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP SHIELD ENTERING THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS DRYING WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST
TO EAST...REACHING THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME. THIS IS DOWN TO A SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE WINDS IN THE 2-4K FT AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT THE LAYER ABOVE 800 MB DRIES OUT IN PART DUE TO DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE THE WEDGE HOLDS ON WITH LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW MAINTAINING A STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB REMAINS ELEVATED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY LAYER AS BEING SATURATED. WILL NOT CARRY
ANY MENTION OF DRIZZLE BUT MAY MENTION FOG EARLY SUN MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO NOT GO CALM BUT THEY WILL BE LIGHT.
COMBINED WITH RECENT PRECIP THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH LOWEST VIS WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
3 OR 4 MILES...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUANCE OF DFA. LOWS END UP A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO...A COMBINATION OF HIGHS 10 DEGREES TODAY BELOW
CLIMO...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND SUBTLE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
EXITING 5H SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 330
PM SATURDAY...DREARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A PERSISTENT
BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY REMAINING DRY FOR THE
MOST PART. THERE COULD BE THE ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR MORE LIKELY PATCH
OF DRIZZLE BUT OVERCAST SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS SHOULD DO IT.

A 300MB JET STREAK BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS PAINT MOST OF THE HEAVIER QPF
OFFSHORE WHERE THE BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT RESIDES. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE RESIDES WEST OF I-95 AND THE
COAST IS LEFT IN BETWEEN WITH WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER THE QPF AMOUNTS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE ARE CERTAINLY NOT IMPRESSIVE MAKING THE
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS FAIRLY PALTRY. BEYOND MONDAY MORNING THE BEST
FORCING MOVES OFF QUICKLY LEAVING OVERCAST/DRIZZLY SKIES.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OTHER THAN MONDAYS
HIGHS WHEN THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS ARE MUCH WARMER. HARD TO TRUST THESE
HOWEVER AS SURFACE PRESSURE PLOTS SHOW THE WEDGE...ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING REMAINING IN PLACE. I DID USE A BLEND BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT BULLETINS FROM THE GFS COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WEDGE WILL BE ERODED ON TUES AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AT THE SAME TIME
A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO TEXAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST. A DEEP S-SW FLOW
WILL BRING PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. INITIALLY ON TUES SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
AS THE WARMER AIR OVERRIDES IT PRODUCING INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE WINDS WILL
COME AROUND WITH WARMER AND MOISTER AIR FLOWING IN. ALWAYS TOUGH TO
TIME THIS AS COLD DENSE AIR HOLDS ON LONGER THAN MODELS USUALLY
PREDICT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH LATE DAY WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE TUES NIGHT INTO WED.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN AHEAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUES
NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET UP TO 40 KTS WILL COMBINE WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO
WED. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND LOCAL AREA GETS INTO BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WED AFTN

THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WED
NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP
TO WET WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI LEAVING A LIGHT
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS FRI INTO SATURDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT BUT LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE LACKING ANY DEEP MOISTURE.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LEAST CONFIDENCE WILL BE KFLO/KLBT. IFR
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING EXCEPT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT
KFLO/KLBT. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NE WINDS TO 8-12 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY WED. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE LATEST CWF ISSUANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT MAY BRIEFLY JUMP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. EXIT OF SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH REASSERTING ITSELF SO GRADIENT DOES NOT CHANGE A
LOT. 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH
SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT...TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COAST WHERE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 2 FT CLOSER TO SHORE.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO SCEC ADVISORY DO NOT
PLAN TO RAISE ONE AT THIS TIME. MAINLY BECAUSE THE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDER WHAT WAS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE ALREADY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW...THOUGH THE EVENING SHIFT MAY DECIDE TO RAISE ONE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...A FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY IN BETWEEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP
ALONG THIS FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY.
SPEEDS THROUGHOUT WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE SOMEWHAT PROLONGED NATURE OF THE WINDS...3-5 FEET.
CANT RULE OUT A FEW SIX FOOTERS BUT THINK A SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE CAN
BE AVOIDED. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY ALTHOUGH
THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE THE SAME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
CAROLINA COAST ON TUES WITH WINDS COMING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY BY TUES EVENING.

A LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FLOW TUES NIGHT
INTO WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS TUES NIGHT INTO WED
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY
TUES TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT
BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7 TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN
STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WED
INTO WED NIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WED AND LASTING INTO
THURS WITH HIGHEST SEAS GETTING PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE IN STRONGER
W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR






000
FXUS62 KILM 202043
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
343 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL KEEP CLOUDY AND
COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
EARLY MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP SHIELD ENTERING THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS DRYING WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST
TO EAST...REACHING THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME. THIS IS DOWN TO A SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE WINDS IN THE 2-4K FT AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT THE LAYER ABOVE 800 MB DRIES OUT IN PART DUE TO DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE THE WEDGE HOLDS ON WITH LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW MAINTAINING A STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB REMAINS ELEVATED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY LAYER AS BEING SATURATED. WILL NOT CARRY
ANY MENTION OF DRIZZLE BUT MAY MENTION FOG EARLY SUN MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO NOT GO CALM BUT THEY WILL BE LIGHT.
COMBINED WITH RECENT PRECIP THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH LOWEST VIS WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
3 OR 4 MILES...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUANCE OF DFA. LOWS END UP A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO...A COMBINATION OF HIGHS 10 DEGREES TODAY BELOW
CLIMO...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND SUBTLE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
EXITING 5H SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...DREARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A PERSISTENT
BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY REMAINING DRY FOR THE
MOST PART. THERE COULD BE THE ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR MORE LIKELY PATCH
OF DRIZZLE BUT OVERCAST SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS SHOULD DO IT.

A 300MB JET STREAK BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS PAINT MOST OF THE HEAVIER QPF
OFFSHORE WHERE THE BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT RESIDES. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE RESIDES WEST OF I-95 AND THE
COAST IS LEFT IN BETWEEN WITH WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER THE QPF AMOUNTS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE ARE CERTAINLY NOT IMPRESSIVE MAKING THE
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS FAIRLY PALTRY. BEYOND MONDAY MORNING THE BEST
FORCING MOVES OFF QUICKLY LEAVING OVERCAST/DRIZZLY SKIES.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OTHER THAN MONDAYS
HIGHS WHEN THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS ARE MUCH WARMER. HARD TO TRUST THESE
HOWEVER AS SURFACE PRESSURE PLOTS SHOW THE WEDGE...ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING REMAINING IN PLACE. I DID USE A BLEND BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT BULLETINS FROM THE GFS COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WEDGE WILL BE ERODED ON TUES AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AT THE SAME TIME
A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO TEXAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST. A DEEP S-SW FLOW
WILL BRING PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. INITIALLY ON TUES SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
AS THE WARMER AIR OVERRIDES IT PRODUCING INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE WINDS WILL
COME AROUND WITH WARMER AND MOISTER AIR FLOWING IN. ALWAYS TOUGH TO
TIME THIS AS COLD DENSE AIR HOLDS ON LONGER THAN MODELS USUALLY
PREDICT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH LATE DAY WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE TUES NIGHT INTO WED.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN AHEAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUES
NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET UP TO 40 KTS WILL COMBINE WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO
WED. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND LOCAL AREA GETS INTO BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WED AFTN

THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WED
NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP
TO WET WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI LEAVING A LIGHT
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS FRI INTO SATURDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT BUT LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE LACKING ANY DEEP MOISTURE.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LEAST CONFIDENCE WILL BE KFLO/KLBT. IFR
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING EXCEPT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT
KFLO/KLBT. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NE WINDS TO 8-12 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY WED. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT MAY BRIEFLY JUMP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. EXIT OF SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH REASSERTING ITSELF SO GRADIENT DOES NOT CHANGE A
LOT. 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH
SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT...TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COAST WHERE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 2 FT CLOSER TO SHORE.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO SCEC ADVISORY DO NOT
PLAN TO RAISE ONE AT THIS TIME. MAINLY BECAUSE THE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDER WHAT WAS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE ALREADY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW...THOUGH THE EVENING SHIFT MAY DECIDE TO RAISE ONE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...A FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY IN BETWEEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP
ALONG THIS FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY.
SPEEDS THROUGHOUT WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE SOMEWHAT PROLONGED NATURE OF THE WINDS...3-5 FEET.
CANT RULE OUT A FEW SIX FOOTERS BUT THINK A SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE CAN
BE AVOIDED. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY ALTHOUGH
THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE THE SAME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
CAROLINA COAST ON TUES WITH WINDS COMING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY BY TUES EVENING.

A LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FLOW TUES NIGHT
INTO WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS TUES NIGHT INTO WED
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY
TUES TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT
BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7 TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN
STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WED
INTO WED NIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WED AND LASTING INTO
THURS WITH HIGHEST SEAS GETTING PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE IN STRONGER
W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 201849
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
149 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BACK
EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD ENTERING THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS DRYING WILL CONTINUE FROM
WEST TO EAST...REACHING THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME. THIS IS DOWN TO A SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE WINDS IN THE 2-4K FT AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT THE LAYER ABOVE 800 MB DRIES OUT IN PART DUE TO DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE THE WEDGE HOLDS ON WITH LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW MAINTAINING A STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB REMAINS ELEVATED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY LAYER AS BEING SATURATED. WILL NOT CARRY
ANY MENTION OF DRIZZLE BUT MAY MENTION FOG EARLY SUN MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO NOT GO CALM BUT THEY WILL BE LIGHT. COMBINED
WITH RECENT PRECIP THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THOUGH LOWEST VIS WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3 OR 4
MILES...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUANCE OF DFA. LOWS END UP A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMO...A COMBINATION OF HIGHS 10 DEGREES TODAY BELOW
CLIMO...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND SUBTLE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
EXITING 5H SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER
WRN ZONES. COASTAL LOCALES WILL STAY QUITE CLOUDY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND THE MORE PROXIMAL NATURE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE COMES WASHING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RIDES ATOP THE WEDGE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY AREA-WIDE MOST OF MONDAY. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES
RAPIDLY UP MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP SHUTS OFF BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE. SUNDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. A SLIGHT ASSERTION OF THE WEDGE ON MONDAY COULD KNOCK
INLAND TEMPS DOWN KEEPING SOME PLACES FROM REACHING 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL HOLD ON WEAKLY ON
TUESDAY SOME SERIOUS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FLOODING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING
OUT THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE DEEPER ASCENT KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EVEN
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE REGION BUT THE
SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT MAY BE AS WELL. TIMING THESE FACTORS WILL BE
CRITICAL SINCE AS-IS IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION MIXED IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. BUT SHOULD
THE DRY SLOT MOVE IN MORE SLOWLY THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE AS BL WINDS CRANK UP TO 50KT OR SO. STRONG COLD AND
DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY EVENING LEADING TO A CHILLY
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT BUT A MODERATION BACK TO CLIMO EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE LATE WED FROPA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TEND
TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LEAST CONFIDENCE WILL BE KFLO/KLBT. IFR
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING EXCEPT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT
KFLO/KLBT. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NE WINDS TO 8-12 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY WED. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT MAY BRIEFLY JUMP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. EXIT OF SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH REASSERTING ITSELF SO GRADIENT DOES NOT
CHANGE A LOT. 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
PUSH SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT...TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COAST
WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 2 FT CLOSER TO SHORE.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO SCEC ADVISORY DO NOT
PLAN TO RAISE ONE AT THIS TIME. MAINLY BECAUSE THE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDER WHAT WAS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE ALREADY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW...THOUGH THE EVENING SHIFT MAY DECIDE TO RAISE ONE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL BE STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE LANDMASS. THE RESULTING NE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
TYPICAL AS WILL SEAS...BOTH PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES. THE FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO THE FORECAST ZONES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND WILL GROW LIGHTER AND THE DIRECTION
FORECAST MAY GET IFFY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT GETS. BY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO OFFSHORE AND INCREASE BY A FEW
KNOTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THOUGH QUIET TO START CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER
THE LANDMASS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MARCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL RAMP UP WIND AND SEAS LATE TUESDAY BUT MOSTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. WINDS LIKELY NOT TO SLACKEN
MUCH WITH WED AFTERNOON FROPA, JUST A SHARP VEER IN DIRECTION.
FLAGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 201849
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
149 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BACK
EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD ENTERING THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS DRYING WILL CONTINUE FROM
WEST TO EAST...REACHING THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME. THIS IS DOWN TO A SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE WINDS IN THE 2-4K FT AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT THE LAYER ABOVE 800 MB DRIES OUT IN PART DUE TO DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE THE WEDGE HOLDS ON WITH LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW MAINTAINING A STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB REMAINS ELEVATED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY LAYER AS BEING SATURATED. WILL NOT CARRY
ANY MENTION OF DRIZZLE BUT MAY MENTION FOG EARLY SUN MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO NOT GO CALM BUT THEY WILL BE LIGHT. COMBINED
WITH RECENT PRECIP THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THOUGH LOWEST VIS WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3 OR 4
MILES...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUANCE OF DFA. LOWS END UP A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMO...A COMBINATION OF HIGHS 10 DEGREES TODAY BELOW
CLIMO...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND SUBTLE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
EXITING 5H SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER
WRN ZONES. COASTAL LOCALES WILL STAY QUITE CLOUDY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND THE MORE PROXIMAL NATURE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE COMES WASHING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RIDES ATOP THE WEDGE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY AREA-WIDE MOST OF MONDAY. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES
RAPIDLY UP MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP SHUTS OFF BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE. SUNDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. A SLIGHT ASSERTION OF THE WEDGE ON MONDAY COULD KNOCK
INLAND TEMPS DOWN KEEPING SOME PLACES FROM REACHING 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL HOLD ON WEAKLY ON
TUESDAY SOME SERIOUS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FLOODING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING
OUT THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE DEEPER ASCENT KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EVEN
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE REGION BUT THE
SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT MAY BE AS WELL. TIMING THESE FACTORS WILL BE
CRITICAL SINCE AS-IS IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION MIXED IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. BUT SHOULD
THE DRY SLOT MOVE IN MORE SLOWLY THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE AS BL WINDS CRANK UP TO 50KT OR SO. STRONG COLD AND
DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY EVENING LEADING TO A CHILLY
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT BUT A MODERATION BACK TO CLIMO EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE LATE WED FROPA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TEND
TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LEAST CONFIDENCE WILL BE KFLO/KLBT. IFR
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING EXCEPT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT
KFLO/KLBT. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NE WINDS TO 8-12 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY WED. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT MAY BRIEFLY JUMP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. EXIT OF SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH REASSERTING ITSELF SO GRADIENT DOES NOT
CHANGE A LOT. 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
PUSH SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT...TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COAST
WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 2 FT CLOSER TO SHORE.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO SCEC ADVISORY DO NOT
PLAN TO RAISE ONE AT THIS TIME. MAINLY BECAUSE THE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDER WHAT WAS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE ALREADY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW...THOUGH THE EVENING SHIFT MAY DECIDE TO RAISE ONE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL BE STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE LANDMASS. THE RESULTING NE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
TYPICAL AS WILL SEAS...BOTH PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES. THE FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO THE FORECAST ZONES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND WILL GROW LIGHTER AND THE DIRECTION
FORECAST MAY GET IFFY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT GETS. BY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO OFFSHORE AND INCREASE BY A FEW
KNOTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THOUGH QUIET TO START CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER
THE LANDMASS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MARCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL RAMP UP WIND AND SEAS LATE TUESDAY BUT MOSTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. WINDS LIKELY NOT TO SLACKEN
MUCH WITH WED AFTERNOON FROPA, JUST A SHARP VEER IN DIRECTION.
FLAGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 201727
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1227 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...LARGE AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OFF THE GA COAST THIS MORNING CONTINUES
GENERATING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE A BIT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST-NORTHEAST. COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL EXPAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE DOWN TO
THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING
LIFT. THEN AS THE LOW HEADS EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT RAPIDLY WEAKENS. MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL...
DOWNSTREAM THE 12Z ATL SOUNDING RECORDED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1 INCH. THE LACK OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
THE MAIN FACTOR KEEPING TOTAL QPF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
SO. ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST COULD APPROACH A QUARTER.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POP FORECAST BUT ONLY TO
ADJUST FOR TIMING/TRENDS. OVERALL NUMBERS REMAIN MORE OR LESS
UNCHANGED. KNOCKED HIGHS BACK A BIT IN MOST AREAS GIVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE AND VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON SATELLITE AS WELL AS
THE WIDESPREAD THOUGH LIGHT RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER
WRN ZONES. COASTAL LOCALES WILL STAY QUITE CLOUDY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND THE MORE PROXIMAL NATURE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE COMES WASHING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RIDES ATOP THE WEDGE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY AREA-WIDE MOST OF MONDAY. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES
RAPIDLY UP MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP SHUTS OFF BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE. SUNDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. A SLIGHT ASSERTION OF THE WEDGE ON MONDAY COULD KNOCK
INLAND TEMPS DOWN KEEPING SOME PLACES FROM REACHING 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL HOLD ON WEAKLY ON
TUESDAY SOME SERIOUS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FLOODING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING
OUT THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE DEEPER ASCENT KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EVEN
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE REGION BUT THE
SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT MAY BE AS WELL. TIMING THESE FACTORS WILL BE
CRITICAL SINCE AS-IS IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION MIXED IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. BUT SHOULD
THE DRY SLOT MOVE IN MORE SLOWLY THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE AS BL WINDS CRANK UP TO 50KT OR SO. STRONG COLD AND
DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY EVENING LEADING TO A CHILLY
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT BUT A MODERATION BACK TO CLIMO EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE LATE WED FROPA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TEND
TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LEAST CONFIDENCE WILL BE KFLO/KLBT. IFR
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING EXCEPT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT
KFLO/KLBT. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NE WINDS TO 8-12 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY WED. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS
THIS MORNING BUT WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.
GRADIENT ALREADY STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING FROM UNDER 10 KT TO AROUND 15 KT AT 41013 IN THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO.
AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEAST BUT SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF SPEEDS ABOVE 15 KT. CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE POTENTIAL SCEC LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR SOLID 5 FT SEAS IN WATERS OPEN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
FETCH.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL BE STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE LANDMASS. THE RESULTING NE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
TYPICAL AS WILL SEAS...BOTH PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES. THE FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO THE FORECAST ZONES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND WILL GROW LIGHTER AND THE DIRECTION
FORECAST MAY GET IFFY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT GETS. BY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO OFFSHORE AND INCREASE BY A FEW
KNOTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THOUGH QUIET TO START CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER
THE LANDMASS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MARCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL RAMP UP WIND AND SEAS LATE TUESDAY BUT MOSTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. WINDS LIKELY NOT TO SLACKEN
MUCH WITH WED AFTERNOON FROPA, JUST A SHARP VEER IN DIRECTION.
FLAGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 201727
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1227 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...LARGE AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OFF THE GA COAST THIS MORNING CONTINUES
GENERATING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE A BIT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST-NORTHEAST. COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL EXPAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE DOWN TO
THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING
LIFT. THEN AS THE LOW HEADS EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT RAPIDLY WEAKENS. MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL...
DOWNSTREAM THE 12Z ATL SOUNDING RECORDED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1 INCH. THE LACK OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
THE MAIN FACTOR KEEPING TOTAL QPF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
SO. ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST COULD APPROACH A QUARTER.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POP FORECAST BUT ONLY TO
ADJUST FOR TIMING/TRENDS. OVERALL NUMBERS REMAIN MORE OR LESS
UNCHANGED. KNOCKED HIGHS BACK A BIT IN MOST AREAS GIVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE AND VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON SATELLITE AS WELL AS
THE WIDESPREAD THOUGH LIGHT RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER
WRN ZONES. COASTAL LOCALES WILL STAY QUITE CLOUDY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND THE MORE PROXIMAL NATURE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE COMES WASHING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RIDES ATOP THE WEDGE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY AREA-WIDE MOST OF MONDAY. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES
RAPIDLY UP MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP SHUTS OFF BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE. SUNDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. A SLIGHT ASSERTION OF THE WEDGE ON MONDAY COULD KNOCK
INLAND TEMPS DOWN KEEPING SOME PLACES FROM REACHING 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL HOLD ON WEAKLY ON
TUESDAY SOME SERIOUS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FLOODING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING
OUT THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE DEEPER ASCENT KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EVEN
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE REGION BUT THE
SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT MAY BE AS WELL. TIMING THESE FACTORS WILL BE
CRITICAL SINCE AS-IS IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION MIXED IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. BUT SHOULD
THE DRY SLOT MOVE IN MORE SLOWLY THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE AS BL WINDS CRANK UP TO 50KT OR SO. STRONG COLD AND
DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY EVENING LEADING TO A CHILLY
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT BUT A MODERATION BACK TO CLIMO EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE LATE WED FROPA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TEND
TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LEAST CONFIDENCE WILL BE KFLO/KLBT. IFR
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING EXCEPT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT
KFLO/KLBT. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NE WINDS TO 8-12 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY WED. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS
THIS MORNING BUT WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.
GRADIENT ALREADY STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING FROM UNDER 10 KT TO AROUND 15 KT AT 41013 IN THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO.
AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEAST BUT SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF SPEEDS ABOVE 15 KT. CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE POTENTIAL SCEC LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR SOLID 5 FT SEAS IN WATERS OPEN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
FETCH.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL BE STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE LANDMASS. THE RESULTING NE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
TYPICAL AS WILL SEAS...BOTH PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES. THE FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO THE FORECAST ZONES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND WILL GROW LIGHTER AND THE DIRECTION
FORECAST MAY GET IFFY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT GETS. BY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO OFFSHORE AND INCREASE BY A FEW
KNOTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THOUGH QUIET TO START CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER
THE LANDMASS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MARCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL RAMP UP WIND AND SEAS LATE TUESDAY BUT MOSTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. WINDS LIKELY NOT TO SLACKEN
MUCH WITH WED AFTERNOON FROPA, JUST A SHARP VEER IN DIRECTION.
FLAGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 201501
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1001 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...LARGE AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OFF THE GA COAST THIS MORNING CONTINUES
GENERATING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE A BIT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST-NORTHEAST. COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL EXPAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE DOWN TO
THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING
LIFT. THEN AS THE LOW HEADS EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT RAPIDLY WEAKENS. MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL...
DOWNSTREAM THE 12Z ATL SOUNDING RECORDED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1 INCH. THE LACK OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
THE MAIN FACTOR KEEPING TOTAL QPF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
SO. ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST COULD APPROACH A QUARTER.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POP FORECAST BUT ONLY TO
ADJUST FOR TIMING/TRENDS. OVERALL NUMBERS REMAIN MORE OR LESS
UNCHANGED. KNOCKED HIGHS BACK A BIT IN MOST AREAS GIVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE AND VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON SATELLITE AS WELL AS
THE WIDESPREAD THOUGH LIGHT RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER
WRN ZONES. COASTAL LOCALES WILL STAY QUITE CLOUDY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND THE MORE PROXIMAL NATURE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE COMES WASHING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RIDES ATOP THE WEDGE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY AREA-WIDE MOST OF MONDAY. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES
RAPIDLY UP MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP SHUTS OFF BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE. SUNDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. A SLIGHT ASSERTION OF THE WEDGE ON MONDAY COULD KNOCK
INLAND TEMPS DOWN KEEPING SOME PLACES FROM REACHING 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL HOLD ON WEAKLY ON
TUESDAY SOME SERIOUS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FLOODING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING
OUT THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE DEEPER ASCENT KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EVEN
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE REGION BUT THE
SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT MAY BE AS WELL. TIMING THESE FACTORS WILL BE
CRITICAL SINCE AS-IS IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION MIXED IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. BUT SHOULD
THE DRY SLOT MOVE IN MORE SLOWLY THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE AS BL WINDS CRANK UP TO 50KT OR SO. STRONG COLD AND
DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY EVENING LEADING TO A CHILLY
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT BUT A MODERATION BACK TO CLIMO EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE LATE WED FROPA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TEND
TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS AS GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN MOVES OVER THE
TERMINALS AND SATURATES THE LOW LEVELS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROVIDE
GREATER SATURATION. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF 18-21Z INLAND TERMINALS AND LATE
AFTERNOON COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS
THIS MORNING BUT WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.
GRADIENT ALREADY STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING FROM UNDER 10 KT TO AROUND 15 KT AT 41013 IN THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO.
AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEAST BUT SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF SPEEDS ABOVE 15 KT. CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE POTENTIAL SCEC LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR SOLID 5 FT SEAS IN WATERS OPEN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
FETCH.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL BE STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE LANDMASS. THE RESULTING NE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
TYPICAL AS WILL SEAS...BOTH PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES. THE FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO THE FORECAST ZONES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND WILL GROW LIGHTER AND THE DIRECTION
FORECAST MAY GET IFFY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT GETS. BY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO OFFSHORE AND INCREASE BY A FEW
KNOTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THOUGH QUIET TO START CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER
THE LANDMASS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MARCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL RAMP UP WIND AND SEAS LATE TUESDAY BUT MOSTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. WINDS LIKELY NOT TO SLACKEN
MUCH WITH WED AFTERNOON FROPA, JUST A SHARP VEER IN DIRECTION.
FLAGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 201501
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1001 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...LARGE AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OFF THE GA COAST THIS MORNING CONTINUES
GENERATING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE A BIT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST-NORTHEAST. COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL EXPAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE DOWN TO
THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING
LIFT. THEN AS THE LOW HEADS EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT RAPIDLY WEAKENS. MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL...
DOWNSTREAM THE 12Z ATL SOUNDING RECORDED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1 INCH. THE LACK OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
THE MAIN FACTOR KEEPING TOTAL QPF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
SO. ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST COULD APPROACH A QUARTER.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POP FORECAST BUT ONLY TO
ADJUST FOR TIMING/TRENDS. OVERALL NUMBERS REMAIN MORE OR LESS
UNCHANGED. KNOCKED HIGHS BACK A BIT IN MOST AREAS GIVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE AND VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON SATELLITE AS WELL AS
THE WIDESPREAD THOUGH LIGHT RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER
WRN ZONES. COASTAL LOCALES WILL STAY QUITE CLOUDY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND THE MORE PROXIMAL NATURE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE COMES WASHING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RIDES ATOP THE WEDGE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY AREA-WIDE MOST OF MONDAY. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES
RAPIDLY UP MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP SHUTS OFF BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE. SUNDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. A SLIGHT ASSERTION OF THE WEDGE ON MONDAY COULD KNOCK
INLAND TEMPS DOWN KEEPING SOME PLACES FROM REACHING 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL HOLD ON WEAKLY ON
TUESDAY SOME SERIOUS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FLOODING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING
OUT THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE DEEPER ASCENT KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EVEN
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE REGION BUT THE
SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT MAY BE AS WELL. TIMING THESE FACTORS WILL BE
CRITICAL SINCE AS-IS IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION MIXED IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. BUT SHOULD
THE DRY SLOT MOVE IN MORE SLOWLY THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE AS BL WINDS CRANK UP TO 50KT OR SO. STRONG COLD AND
DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY EVENING LEADING TO A CHILLY
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT BUT A MODERATION BACK TO CLIMO EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE LATE WED FROPA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TEND
TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS AS GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN MOVES OVER THE
TERMINALS AND SATURATES THE LOW LEVELS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROVIDE
GREATER SATURATION. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF 18-21Z INLAND TERMINALS AND LATE
AFTERNOON COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS
THIS MORNING BUT WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.
GRADIENT ALREADY STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING FROM UNDER 10 KT TO AROUND 15 KT AT 41013 IN THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO.
AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEAST BUT SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF SPEEDS ABOVE 15 KT. CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE POTENTIAL SCEC LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR SOLID 5 FT SEAS IN WATERS OPEN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
FETCH.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL BE STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE LANDMASS. THE RESULTING NE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
TYPICAL AS WILL SEAS...BOTH PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES. THE FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO THE FORECAST ZONES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND WILL GROW LIGHTER AND THE DIRECTION
FORECAST MAY GET IFFY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT GETS. BY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO OFFSHORE AND INCREASE BY A FEW
KNOTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THOUGH QUIET TO START CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER
THE LANDMASS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MARCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL RAMP UP WIND AND SEAS LATE TUESDAY BUT MOSTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. WINDS LIKELY NOT TO SLACKEN
MUCH WITH WED AFTERNOON FROPA, JUST A SHARP VEER IN DIRECTION.
FLAGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 201121
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
621 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM CUTS
BY TO OUR SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A
STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE SW. HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED DATABASE TO INCREASE
COVERAGE THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A
CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY IN STORE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LEADING EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM EMERGING FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SW IN THE
FORM OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE THE SE US
COAST. PRIME TIME FOR THE RAIN WILL BE MID MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. RAIN EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY LIGHT WITH SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. HIGHEST QPF
TOTALS ALONG THE COAST NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED A QUARTER INCH.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MOST
PLACES. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER
WRN ZONES. COASTAL LOCALES WILL STAY QUITE CLOUDY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND THE MORE PROXIMAL NATURE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE COMES WASHING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RIDES ATOP THE WEDGE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY AREA-WIDE MOST OF MONDAY. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES
RAPIDLY UP MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP SHUTS OFF BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE. SUNDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. A SLIGHT ASSERTION OF THE WEDGE ON MONDAY COULD KNOCK
INLAND TEMPS DOWN KEEPING SOME PLACES FROM REACHING 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL HOLD ON WEAKLY ON
TUESDAY SOME SERIOUS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FLOODING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING
OUT THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE DEEPER ASCENT KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EVEN
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE REGION BUT THE
SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT MAY BE AS WELL. TIMING THESE FACTORS WILL BE
CRITICAL SINCE AS-IS IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION MIXED IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. BUT SHOULD
THE DRY SLOT MOVE IN MORE SLOWLY THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE AS BL WINDS CRANK UP TO 50KT OR SO. STRONG COLD AND
DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY EVENING LEADING TO A CHILLY
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT BUT A MODERATION BACK TO CLIMO EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE LATE WED FROPA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TEND
TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS AS GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN MOVES OVER THE
TERMINALS AND SATURATES THE LOW LEVELS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROVIDE
GREATER SATURATION. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF 18-21Z INLAND TERMINALS AND LATE
AFTERNOON COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODEST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID TERM AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PASSES EAST OF
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL PEAK BRIEFLY THIS EVENING IN THE 15 TO 20
KT RANGE...OTHERWISE FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL SEE 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING
MAY PROMPT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL BE STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE LANDMASS. THE RESULTING NE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
TYPICAL AS WILL SEAS...BOTH PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES. THE FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO THE FORECAST ZONES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND WILL GROW LIGHTER AND THE DIRECTION
FORECAST MAY GET IFFY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT GETS. BY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO OFFSHORE AND INCREASE BY A FEW
KNOTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THOUGH QUIET TO START CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER
THE LANDMASS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MARCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL RAMP UP WIND AND SEAS LATE TUESDAY BUT MOSTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. WINDS LIKELY NOT TO SLACKEN
MUCH WITH WED AFTERNOON FROPA, JUST A SHARP VEER IN DIRECTION.
FLAGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/MBB





000
FXUS62 KILM 201121
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
621 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM CUTS
BY TO OUR SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A
STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE SW. HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED DATABASE TO INCREASE
COVERAGE THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A
CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY IN STORE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LEADING EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM EMERGING FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SW IN THE
FORM OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE THE SE US
COAST. PRIME TIME FOR THE RAIN WILL BE MID MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. RAIN EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY LIGHT WITH SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. HIGHEST QPF
TOTALS ALONG THE COAST NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED A QUARTER INCH.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MOST
PLACES. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER
WRN ZONES. COASTAL LOCALES WILL STAY QUITE CLOUDY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND THE MORE PROXIMAL NATURE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE COMES WASHING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RIDES ATOP THE WEDGE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY AREA-WIDE MOST OF MONDAY. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES
RAPIDLY UP MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP SHUTS OFF BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE. SUNDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. A SLIGHT ASSERTION OF THE WEDGE ON MONDAY COULD KNOCK
INLAND TEMPS DOWN KEEPING SOME PLACES FROM REACHING 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL HOLD ON WEAKLY ON
TUESDAY SOME SERIOUS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FLOODING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING
OUT THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE DEEPER ASCENT KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EVEN
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE REGION BUT THE
SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT MAY BE AS WELL. TIMING THESE FACTORS WILL BE
CRITICAL SINCE AS-IS IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION MIXED IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. BUT SHOULD
THE DRY SLOT MOVE IN MORE SLOWLY THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE AS BL WINDS CRANK UP TO 50KT OR SO. STRONG COLD AND
DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY EVENING LEADING TO A CHILLY
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT BUT A MODERATION BACK TO CLIMO EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE LATE WED FROPA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TEND
TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS AS GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN MOVES OVER THE
TERMINALS AND SATURATES THE LOW LEVELS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
MVFR CIGS ALTHOUGH IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROVIDE
GREATER SATURATION. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF 18-21Z INLAND TERMINALS AND LATE
AFTERNOON COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODEST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID TERM AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PASSES EAST OF
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL PEAK BRIEFLY THIS EVENING IN THE 15 TO 20
KT RANGE...OTHERWISE FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL SEE 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING
MAY PROMPT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL BE STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE LANDMASS. THE RESULTING NE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
TYPICAL AS WILL SEAS...BOTH PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES. THE FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO THE FORECAST ZONES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND WILL GROW LIGHTER AND THE DIRECTION
FORECAST MAY GET IFFY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT GETS. BY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO OFFSHORE AND INCREASE BY A FEW
KNOTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THOUGH QUIET TO START CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER
THE LANDMASS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MARCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL RAMP UP WIND AND SEAS LATE TUESDAY BUT MOSTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. WINDS LIKELY NOT TO SLACKEN
MUCH WITH WED AFTERNOON FROPA, JUST A SHARP VEER IN DIRECTION.
FLAGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/MBB






000
FXUS62 KILM 200816
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM CUTS BY
TO OUR SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A
STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 AM SATURDAY...LEADING EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ENTERING THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE SW IN THE FORM OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS AREA OF
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFFSHORE THE SE US COAST. PRIME TIME FOR THE RAIN WILL BE MID
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. RAIN
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN.
HIGHEST QPF TOTALS ALONG THE COAST NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED A QUARTER
INCH. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MOST
PLACES. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER
NWRN ZONES. COASTAL LOCALES WILL STAY QUITE CLOUDY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND THE MORE PROXIMAL NATURE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE COMES WASHING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RIDES ATOP THE WEDGE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY AREA-WIDE MOST OF MONDAY. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES
RAPIDLY UP MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP SHUTS OFF BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE. SUNDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. A SLIGHT ASSERTION OF THE WEDGE ON MONDAY COULD KNOCK INLAND
TEMPS DOWN KEEPING SOME PLACES FROM REACHING 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL HOLD ON WEAKLY ON
TUESDAY SOME SERIOUS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FLOODING INTO THE REGION AS
THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING OUT
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE DEEPER ASCENT KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EVEN STRONGER
FORCING WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE REGION BUT THE SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT
MAY BE AS WELL. TIMING THESE FACTORS WILL BE CRITICAL SINCE AS-IS IT
APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION MIXED IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. BUT SHOULD THE DRY SLOT MOVE IN MORE SLOWLY
THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE AS BL WINDS CRANK UP TO
50KT OR SO. STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY
EVENING LEADING TO A CHILLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT BUT A MODERATION
BACK TO CLIMO EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE LATE WED FROPA
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TEND TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING -RA TO OUR AREA BEGINNING AROUND
DAYBREAK...FIRST AT KFLO AND KMYR/KCRE FOLLOWED BY THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. MID LEVEL VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE MORNING AS PRECIP SATURATES THE LOW LEVELS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR MVFR CIGS DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPO IFR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE COASTAL SITES WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY.
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 21Z INLAND AND BEFORE 00Z ALONG THE COAST.
BUT WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFFSHORE...LOW CLOUDS 2-4KFT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 AM SATURDAY...MODEST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID TERM AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL PEAK BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...OTHERWISE FOR THE MOST PART WE
WILL SEE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING MAY PROMPT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL BE STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE LANDMASS. THE RESULTING NE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL AS
WILL SEAS...BOTH PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THE
FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO THE FORECAST ZONES LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND WILL GROW LIGHTER AND THE DIRECTION FORECAST MAY GET
IFFY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT GETS. BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO
OFFSHORE AND INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THOUGH QUIET TO START CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER THE
LANDMASS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MARCH
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
RAMP UP WIND AND SEAS LATE TUESDAY BUT MOSTLY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN
ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. WINDS LIKELY NOT TO SLACKEN MUCH
WITH WED AFTERNOON FROPA, JUST A SHARP VEER IN DIRECTION. FLAGS
STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.



&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...REK/BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 200816
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM CUTS BY
TO OUR SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A
STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 AM SATURDAY...LEADING EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ENTERING THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE SW IN THE FORM OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS AREA OF
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFFSHORE THE SE US COAST. PRIME TIME FOR THE RAIN WILL BE MID
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. RAIN
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN.
HIGHEST QPF TOTALS ALONG THE COAST NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED A QUARTER
INCH. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MOST
PLACES. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER
NWRN ZONES. COASTAL LOCALES WILL STAY QUITE CLOUDY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND THE MORE PROXIMAL NATURE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE COMES WASHING BACK IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RIDES ATOP THE WEDGE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY AREA-WIDE MOST OF MONDAY. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES
RAPIDLY UP MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP SHUTS OFF BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE. SUNDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. A SLIGHT ASSERTION OF THE WEDGE ON MONDAY COULD KNOCK INLAND
TEMPS DOWN KEEPING SOME PLACES FROM REACHING 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL HOLD ON WEAKLY ON
TUESDAY SOME SERIOUS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FLOODING INTO THE REGION AS
THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING OUT
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE DEEPER ASCENT KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EVEN STRONGER
FORCING WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE REGION BUT THE SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT
MAY BE AS WELL. TIMING THESE FACTORS WILL BE CRITICAL SINCE AS-IS IT
APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION MIXED IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. BUT SHOULD THE DRY SLOT MOVE IN MORE SLOWLY
THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE AS BL WINDS CRANK UP TO
50KT OR SO. STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY
EVENING LEADING TO A CHILLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT BUT A MODERATION
BACK TO CLIMO EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE LATE WED FROPA
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TEND TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING -RA TO OUR AREA BEGINNING AROUND
DAYBREAK...FIRST AT KFLO AND KMYR/KCRE FOLLOWED BY THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. MID LEVEL VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE MORNING AS PRECIP SATURATES THE LOW LEVELS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR MVFR CIGS DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPO IFR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE COASTAL SITES WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY.
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 21Z INLAND AND BEFORE 00Z ALONG THE COAST.
BUT WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFFSHORE...LOW CLOUDS 2-4KFT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 AM SATURDAY...MODEST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID TERM AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL PEAK BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...OTHERWISE FOR THE MOST PART WE
WILL SEE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING MAY PROMPT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL BE STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE LANDMASS. THE RESULTING NE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL AS
WILL SEAS...BOTH PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THE
FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO THE FORECAST ZONES LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND WILL GROW LIGHTER AND THE DIRECTION FORECAST MAY GET
IFFY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT GETS. BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO
OFFSHORE AND INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THOUGH QUIET TO START CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER THE
LANDMASS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MARCH
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
RAMP UP WIND AND SEAS LATE TUESDAY BUT MOSTLY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN
ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. WINDS LIKELY NOT TO SLACKEN MUCH
WITH WED AFTERNOON FROPA, JUST A SHARP VEER IN DIRECTION. FLAGS
STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.



&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...REK/BJR








000
FXUS62 KILM 200538
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1238 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL PASS
OFF THE COAST SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH CLOUDS ARE THICKENING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL DENSE OVERCAST SHOULD ARRIVE ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS
LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS THOUGHTS WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT, BUT WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. POPS LATE TONIGHT
HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWNWARD AGAIN ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA WITH
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN EARLIER PROJECTIONS, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE INTERFERED MOST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST
LOWS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP IN RESPONSE WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS SE
NORTH CAROLINA TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PEE DEE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW RAIN HAS ADVANCED AS FAR EAST AS EAST-CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH ANALYZED & FORECAST LIFT ON THE
300K-305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. WHILE VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS MOIST LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITHIN THIS
LAYER (10000-15000 FT) SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/1 AM EST...THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE TO OVERCOME. COMPARING
VARIOUS MODELS MEAN RH IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER AT 06, 09, AND 12Z
THE GFS IS THE MOST MOIST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST. 18Z GFS MOS POPS
APPEAR TO BE TAKING THE DRY AIR QUITE SERIOUSLY...AND EYEBALLING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT SHOULD TAKE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAIN TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS.

WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL SE NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABLY WON`T OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. POPS HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN INCREASED FOR THE
FLORENCE-DARLINGTON-KINGSTREE AREA LATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MADE AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
MOST OF OUR TEMPERATURE DROP TO OCCUR THIS EVENING, WITH FAIRLY
STEADY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND CLOUDY WEEKEND ON TAP WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SURFACE WAVES PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE FIRST
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING 5H
SHORTWAVE. THE SURFACE WAVE/LOW IS RATHER UNINSPIRING BUT DOES
PROVIDE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
DOWN THE COAST ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS A PERIOD SAT INTO SAT
EVENING WHERE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...IS
PRESENT. ALTHOUGH POP REMAINS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
TOTAL QPF WILL BE LOW. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO THE COAST. SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES MOVE
EAST SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
DRYING OCCURS ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUIET MOIST WITH THE WEDGE
HOLDING STRONG. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
HIGHS RUNNING BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS NEAR CLIMO. ALTHOUGH NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE NEXT AND CURRENTLY BEST CHANCE AT SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE PERIOD
WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE
MOVES UP THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE STALLED OFF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES PUSHING DOWN THE COAST AS THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN AN AREA OF INCREASE DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEED 1.25 INCH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD LEAD TO
RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED IN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW JUST OFF SHORE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH BY MON
AFTERNOON THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL GET PUSHED INLAND SLIGHTLY
DRIVING WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY WEATHER INTO COASTAL AREAS.
ITS ALWAYS TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BUT FOR NOW WILL
SHOW A TREND OF WARMING ALONG THE COAST. PCP MAY BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND COASTAL CAROLINAS END UP
IN A NW FLOW ON THE BACK END INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER WARMER
AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEREFORE
SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE MON MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY DEEPER
WARMER AIR BRIEFLY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN COOLER AIR THROUGH MON
NIGHT.

DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUES INTO WED BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP TO WET
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOL BUT WILL WARM AS COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT
PUSHES INLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUES. TIGHT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON
MON BETWEEN COOLER TEMPS INLAND...IN THE 40S MOST PLACES...TO
POSSIBLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. BY TUES THE WARMER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE WESTERN REACHES OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA LEAVING TEMPS CLOSER
TO 60 MOST PLACES FOR TUES AND WED UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY
THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING -RA TO OUR AREA BEGINNING AROUND
DAYBREAK...FIRST AT KFLO AND KMYR/KCRE FOLLOWED BY THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. MID LEVEL VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE MORNING AS PRECIP SATURATES THE LOW LEVELS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR MVFR CIGS DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPO IFR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE COASTAL SITES WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY.
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 21Z INLAND AND BEFORE 00Z ALONG THE COAST.
BUT WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFFSHORE...LOW CLOUDS 2-4KFT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ADJUSTED INITIAL SEA HEIGHTS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST
DATABASE GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF NOTHING HIGHER THAN 1 FOOT
WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE. NE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO 2
FEET OVERNIGHT WITH 3 FOOTERS STARTING TO SHOW UP BY DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES/LOWS PASS
EAST OF THE WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT
AND NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KT. EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS. EXCEPTION WILL BE
LOCATIONS SHELTERED TO NORTHEAST FLOW OR WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
HERE SEAS WOULD BE 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON MONDAY. AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH THE WATERS
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BUT OVERALL EXPECT MORE VARIABLE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS. MAY SEE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO OFF SHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST BUT A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BY TUES.

AS THIS LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUES INTO WED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.
THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA
SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7
TO 8 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS ON WED. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAINLY ON
WED AND LASTING INTO THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...REK/RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/III/RGZ






000
FXUS62 KILM 200538
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1238 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL PASS
OFF THE COAST SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH CLOUDS ARE THICKENING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL DENSE OVERCAST SHOULD ARRIVE ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS
LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS THOUGHTS WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT, BUT WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. POPS LATE TONIGHT
HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWNWARD AGAIN ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA WITH
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN EARLIER PROJECTIONS, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE INTERFERED MOST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST
LOWS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP IN RESPONSE WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS SE
NORTH CAROLINA TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PEE DEE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW RAIN HAS ADVANCED AS FAR EAST AS EAST-CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH ANALYZED & FORECAST LIFT ON THE
300K-305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. WHILE VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS MOIST LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITHIN THIS
LAYER (10000-15000 FT) SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/1 AM EST...THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE TO OVERCOME. COMPARING
VARIOUS MODELS MEAN RH IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER AT 06, 09, AND 12Z
THE GFS IS THE MOST MOIST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST. 18Z GFS MOS POPS
APPEAR TO BE TAKING THE DRY AIR QUITE SERIOUSLY...AND EYEBALLING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT SHOULD TAKE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAIN TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS.

WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL SE NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABLY WON`T OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. POPS HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN INCREASED FOR THE
FLORENCE-DARLINGTON-KINGSTREE AREA LATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MADE AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
MOST OF OUR TEMPERATURE DROP TO OCCUR THIS EVENING, WITH FAIRLY
STEADY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND CLOUDY WEEKEND ON TAP WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SURFACE WAVES PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE FIRST
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING 5H
SHORTWAVE. THE SURFACE WAVE/LOW IS RATHER UNINSPIRING BUT DOES
PROVIDE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
DOWN THE COAST ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS A PERIOD SAT INTO SAT
EVENING WHERE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...IS
PRESENT. ALTHOUGH POP REMAINS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
TOTAL QPF WILL BE LOW. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO THE COAST. SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES MOVE
EAST SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
DRYING OCCURS ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUIET MOIST WITH THE WEDGE
HOLDING STRONG. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
HIGHS RUNNING BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS NEAR CLIMO. ALTHOUGH NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE NEXT AND CURRENTLY BEST CHANCE AT SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE PERIOD
WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE
MOVES UP THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE STALLED OFF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES PUSHING DOWN THE COAST AS THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN AN AREA OF INCREASE DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEED 1.25 INCH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD LEAD TO
RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED IN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW JUST OFF SHORE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH BY MON
AFTERNOON THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL GET PUSHED INLAND SLIGHTLY
DRIVING WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY WEATHER INTO COASTAL AREAS.
ITS ALWAYS TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BUT FOR NOW WILL
SHOW A TREND OF WARMING ALONG THE COAST. PCP MAY BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND COASTAL CAROLINAS END UP
IN A NW FLOW ON THE BACK END INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER WARMER
AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEREFORE
SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE MON MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY DEEPER
WARMER AIR BRIEFLY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN COOLER AIR THROUGH MON
NIGHT.

DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUES INTO WED BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP TO WET
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOL BUT WILL WARM AS COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT
PUSHES INLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUES. TIGHT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON
MON BETWEEN COOLER TEMPS INLAND...IN THE 40S MOST PLACES...TO
POSSIBLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. BY TUES THE WARMER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE WESTERN REACHES OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA LEAVING TEMPS CLOSER
TO 60 MOST PLACES FOR TUES AND WED UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY
THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING -RA TO OUR AREA BEGINNING AROUND
DAYBREAK...FIRST AT KFLO AND KMYR/KCRE FOLLOWED BY THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. MID LEVEL VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE MORNING AS PRECIP SATURATES THE LOW LEVELS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR MVFR CIGS DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPO IFR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE COASTAL SITES WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY.
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 21Z INLAND AND BEFORE 00Z ALONG THE COAST.
BUT WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFFSHORE...LOW CLOUDS 2-4KFT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ADJUSTED INITIAL SEA HEIGHTS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST
DATABASE GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF NOTHING HIGHER THAN 1 FOOT
WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE. NE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO 2
FEET OVERNIGHT WITH 3 FOOTERS STARTING TO SHOW UP BY DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES/LOWS PASS
EAST OF THE WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT
AND NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KT. EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS. EXCEPTION WILL BE
LOCATIONS SHELTERED TO NORTHEAST FLOW OR WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
HERE SEAS WOULD BE 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON MONDAY. AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH THE WATERS
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BUT OVERALL EXPECT MORE VARIABLE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS. MAY SEE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO OFF SHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST BUT A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BY TUES.

AS THIS LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUES INTO WED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.
THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA
SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7
TO 8 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS ON WED. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAINLY ON
WED AND LASTING INTO THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...REK/RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/III/RGZ







000
FXUS62 KILM 200249
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
949 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL PASS OFF
THE COAST SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE THICKENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL DENSE OVERCAST SHOULD
ARRIVE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST
HIGH-RES MODELS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS THOUGHTS WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT, BUT WITH THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. POPS LATE
TONIGHT HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWNWARD AGAIN ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN EARLIER PROJECTIONS, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE INTERFERED MOST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST LOWS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP IN RESPONSE WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PEE DEE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW RAIN HAS ADVANCED AS FAR EAST AS EAST-CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH ANALYZED & FORECAST LIFT ON THE
300K-305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. WHILE VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS MOIST LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITHIN THIS
LAYER (10000-15000 FT) SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/1 AM EST...THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE TO OVERCOME. COMPARING
VARIOUS MODELS MEAN RH IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER AT 06, 09, AND 12Z
THE GFS IS THE MOST MOIST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST. 18Z GFS MOS POPS
APPEAR TO BE TAKING THE DRY AIR QUITE SERIOUSLY...AND EYEBALLING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT SHOULD TAKE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAIN TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS.

WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL SE NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABLY WON`T OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. POPS HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN INCREASED FOR THE
FLORENCE-DARLINGTON-KINGSTREE AREA LATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MADE AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
MOST OF OUR TEMPERATURE DROP TO OCCUR THIS EVENING, WITH FAIRLY
STEADY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND CLOUDY WEEKEND ON TAP WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SURFACE WAVES PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE FIRST
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING 5H
SHORTWAVE. THE SURFACE WAVE/LOW IS RATHER UNINSPIRING BUT DOES
PROVIDE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
DOWN THE COAST ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS A PERIOD SAT INTO SAT
EVENING WHERE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...IS
PRESENT. ALTHOUGH POP REMAINS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
TOTAL QPF WILL BE LOW. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO THE COAST. SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES MOVE
EAST SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
DRYING OCCURS ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUIET MOIST WITH THE WEDGE
HOLDING STRONG. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
HIGHS RUNNING BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS NEAR CLIMO. ALTHOUGH NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE NEXT AND CURRENTLY BEST CHANCE AT SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE PERIOD
WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE
MOVES UP THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE STALLED OFF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES PUSHING DOWN THE COAST AS THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN AN AREA OF INCREASE DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEED 1.25 INCH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD LEAD TO
RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED IN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW JUST OFF SHORE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH BY MON
AFTERNOON THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL GET PUSHED INLAND SLIGHTLY
DRIVING WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY WEATHER INTO COASTAL AREAS.
ITS ALWAYS TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BUT FOR NOW WILL
SHOW A TREND OF WARMING ALONG THE COAST. PCP MAY BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND COASTAL CAROLINAS END UP
IN A NW FLOW ON THE BACK END INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER WARMER
AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEREFORE
SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE MON MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY DEEPER
WARMER AIR BRIEFLY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN COOLER AIR THROUGH MON
NIGHT.

DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUES INTO WED BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP TO WET
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOL BUT WILL WARM AS COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT
PUSHES INLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUES. TIGHT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON
MON BETWEEN COOLER TEMPS INLAND...IN THE 40S MOST PLACES...TO
POSSIBLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. BY TUES THE WARMER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE WESTERN REACHES OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA LEAVING TEMPS CLOSER
TO 60 MOST PLACES FOR TUES AND WED UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY
THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE INTO SAT MORNING
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING -RA AND LOWERING CIGS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND
DAYBREAK. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INITIALLY KEEP CIGS
VFR...BUT AS RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL...CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR
LEVELS BY AROUND MIDDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CIGS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL
TERMINALS ABOVE 1KFT. WINDS ON SAT WILL BE NORTHEAST AOB 10 KT. RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF AT THE INLAND SITES BY 21Z...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND AREA WIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

ADJUSTED INITIAL SEA HEIGHTS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST
DATABASE GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF NOTHING HIGHER THAN 1 FOOT
WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE. NE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO 2
FEET OVERNIGHT WITH 3 FOOTERS STARTING TO SHOW UP BY DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES/LOWS PASS
EAST OF THE WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT
AND NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KT. EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS. EXCEPTION WILL BE
LOCATIONS SHELTERED TO NORTHEAST FLOW OR WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
HERE SEAS WOULD BE 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON MONDAY. AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH THE WATERS
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BUT OVERALL EXPECT MORE VARIABLE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS. MAY SEE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO OFF SHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST BUT A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BY TUES.

AS THIS LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUES INTO WED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.
THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA
SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7
TO 8 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS ON WED. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAINLY ON
WED AND LASTING INTO THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 200249
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
949 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL PASS OFF
THE COAST SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE THICKENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL DENSE OVERCAST SHOULD
ARRIVE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST
HIGH-RES MODELS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS THOUGHTS WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT, BUT WITH THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. POPS LATE
TONIGHT HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWNWARD AGAIN ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN EARLIER PROJECTIONS, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE INTERFERED MOST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST LOWS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP IN RESPONSE WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PEE DEE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW RAIN HAS ADVANCED AS FAR EAST AS EAST-CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH ANALYZED & FORECAST LIFT ON THE
300K-305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. WHILE VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS MOIST LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITHIN THIS
LAYER (10000-15000 FT) SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/1 AM EST...THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE TO OVERCOME. COMPARING
VARIOUS MODELS MEAN RH IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER AT 06, 09, AND 12Z
THE GFS IS THE MOST MOIST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST. 18Z GFS MOS POPS
APPEAR TO BE TAKING THE DRY AIR QUITE SERIOUSLY...AND EYEBALLING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT SHOULD TAKE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAIN TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS.

WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL SE NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABLY WON`T OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. POPS HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN INCREASED FOR THE
FLORENCE-DARLINGTON-KINGSTREE AREA LATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MADE AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
MOST OF OUR TEMPERATURE DROP TO OCCUR THIS EVENING, WITH FAIRLY
STEADY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND CLOUDY WEEKEND ON TAP WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SURFACE WAVES PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE FIRST
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING 5H
SHORTWAVE. THE SURFACE WAVE/LOW IS RATHER UNINSPIRING BUT DOES
PROVIDE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
DOWN THE COAST ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS A PERIOD SAT INTO SAT
EVENING WHERE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...IS
PRESENT. ALTHOUGH POP REMAINS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
TOTAL QPF WILL BE LOW. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO THE COAST. SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES MOVE
EAST SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
DRYING OCCURS ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUIET MOIST WITH THE WEDGE
HOLDING STRONG. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
HIGHS RUNNING BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS NEAR CLIMO. ALTHOUGH NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE NEXT AND CURRENTLY BEST CHANCE AT SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE PERIOD
WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE
MOVES UP THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE STALLED OFF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES PUSHING DOWN THE COAST AS THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN AN AREA OF INCREASE DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEED 1.25 INCH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD LEAD TO
RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED IN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW JUST OFF SHORE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH BY MON
AFTERNOON THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL GET PUSHED INLAND SLIGHTLY
DRIVING WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY WEATHER INTO COASTAL AREAS.
ITS ALWAYS TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BUT FOR NOW WILL
SHOW A TREND OF WARMING ALONG THE COAST. PCP MAY BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND COASTAL CAROLINAS END UP
IN A NW FLOW ON THE BACK END INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER WARMER
AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEREFORE
SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE MON MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY DEEPER
WARMER AIR BRIEFLY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN COOLER AIR THROUGH MON
NIGHT.

DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUES INTO WED BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP TO WET
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOL BUT WILL WARM AS COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT
PUSHES INLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUES. TIGHT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON
MON BETWEEN COOLER TEMPS INLAND...IN THE 40S MOST PLACES...TO
POSSIBLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. BY TUES THE WARMER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE WESTERN REACHES OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA LEAVING TEMPS CLOSER
TO 60 MOST PLACES FOR TUES AND WED UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY
THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE INTO SAT MORNING
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING -RA AND LOWERING CIGS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND
DAYBREAK. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INITIALLY KEEP CIGS
VFR...BUT AS RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL...CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR
LEVELS BY AROUND MIDDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CIGS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL
TERMINALS ABOVE 1KFT. WINDS ON SAT WILL BE NORTHEAST AOB 10 KT. RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF AT THE INLAND SITES BY 21Z...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND AREA WIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

ADJUSTED INITIAL SEA HEIGHTS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST
DATABASE GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF NOTHING HIGHER THAN 1 FOOT
WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE. NE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO 2
FEET OVERNIGHT WITH 3 FOOTERS STARTING TO SHOW UP BY DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES/LOWS PASS
EAST OF THE WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT
AND NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KT. EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS. EXCEPTION WILL BE
LOCATIONS SHELTERED TO NORTHEAST FLOW OR WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
HERE SEAS WOULD BE 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON MONDAY. AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH THE WATERS
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BUT OVERALL EXPECT MORE VARIABLE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS. MAY SEE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO OFF SHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST BUT A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BY TUES.

AS THIS LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUES INTO WED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.
THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA
SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7
TO 8 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS ON WED. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAINLY ON
WED AND LASTING INTO THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 192334
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
633 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL PASS OFF
THE COAST SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW RAIN HAS ADVANCED AS FAR
EAST AS EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH ANALYZED &
FORECAST LIFT ON THE 300K-305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. WHILE VIRTUALLY
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOIST LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS WITHIN THIS LAYER (10000-15000 FT) SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/1 AM
EST...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE TO
OVERCOME. COMPARING VARIOUS MODELS MEAN RH IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER
AT 06, 09, AND 12Z THE GFS IS THE MOST MOIST WITH THE NAM THE
DRIEST. 18Z GFS MOS POPS APPEAR TO BE TAKING THE DRY AIR QUITE
SERIOUSLY...AND EYEBALLING FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT SHOULD TAKE A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS.

WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL SE NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABLY WON`T OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. POPS HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN INCREASED FOR THE
FLORENCE-DARLINGTON-KINGSTREE AREA LATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MADE AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
MOST OF OUR TEMPERATURE DROP TO OCCUR THIS EVENING, WITH FAIRLY
STEADY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
300 PM FOLLOWS...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEDGE
STRONGLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY SAT MORNING. MEANTIME...A
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ITS MOST DIRECT IMPACTS EXPECTED ON
SAT.

HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY ENCROACHING FROM THE W AND SW AND
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE MID AND LATE EVE
HOURS...BECOMING CLOUDY BY/AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BELOW 1500-2000 FT WILL BE NE TO ENE TONIGHT. ABOVE THAT
SHALLOW LAYER...THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY MOIST WSW
FLOW. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE LATE. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW LEVELS
STUBBORNLY HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE DRY AIR IS CERTAINLY WELL REPRESENTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A SEABREEZE HAS PUSHED
ONSHORE AND SOME OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS SEEN DEWPOINTS RECOVER
INTO THE 30S. MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW SOON THE PRECIPITATION WILL
START AND WHETHER IT WILL BE MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
SHOW POPS RAMPING UP TOWARD MORNING...BUT REMAINING IN THE GOOD
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
RESERVED FOR SAT.

LOW TEMPS ALSO A CHALLENGE AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO
KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED...BUT DRY AIR COUPLED WITH MAINLY THIN CLOUD
COVER THIS EVE WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THUS...WE MAY END UP WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS TEMPS SHOULD
TEND TO STABILIZE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING LIGHT
RAINFALL DROPPING THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN DROP TEMPS AT THE
SURFACE NEAR DAWN. WILL FORECAST A SHARP DROP IN EVE TEMPS WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S...BUT MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
FEAR BASIN WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOWEST TO THICKEN. THERE IS NO
CONCERN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER THAN A CHILLY LIQUID RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND CLOUDY WEEKEND ON TAP WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SURFACE WAVES PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE FIRST
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING 5H
SHORTWAVE. THE SURFACE WAVE/LOW IS RATHER UNINSPIRING BUT DOES
PROVIDE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
DOWN THE COAST ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS A PERIOD SAT INTO SAT
EVENING WHERE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...IS
PRESENT. ALTHOUGH POP REMAINS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
TOTAL QPF WILL BE LOW. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO THE COAST. SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES MOVE
EAST SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
DRYING OCCURS ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUIET MOIST WITH THE WEDGE
HOLDING STRONG. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
HIGHS RUNNING BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS NEAR CLIMO. ALTHOUGH NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE NEXT AND CURRENTLY BEST CHANCE AT SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE PERIOD
WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE
MOVES UP THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE STALLED OFF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES PUSHING DOWN THE COAST AS THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN AN AREA OF INCREASE DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEED 1.25 INCH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD LEAD TO
RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED IN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW JUST OFF SHORE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH BY MON
AFTERNOON THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL GET PUSHED INLAND SLIGHTLY
DRIVING WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY WEATHER INTO COASTAL AREAS.
ITS ALWAYS TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BUT FOR NOW WILL
SHOW A TREND OF WARMING ALONG THE COAST. PCP MAY BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND COASTAL CAROLINAS END UP
IN A NW FLOW ON THE BACK END INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER WARMER
AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEREFORE
SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE MON MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY DEEPER
WARMER AIR BRIEFLY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN COOLER AIR THROUGH MON
NIGHT.

DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUES INTO WED BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP TO WET
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOL BUT WILL WARM AS COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT
PUSHES INLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUES. TIGHT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON
MON BETWEEN COOLER TEMPS INLAND...IN THE 40S MOST PLACES...TO
POSSIBLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. BY TUES THE WARMER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE WESTERN REACHES OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA LEAVING TEMPS CLOSER
TO 60 MOST PLACES FOR TUES AND WED UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY
THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE INTO SAT MORNING
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING -RA AND LOWERING CIGS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND
DAYBREAK. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INITIALLY KEEP CIGS
VFR...BUT AS RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL...CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR
LEVELS BY AROUND MIDDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CIGS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL
TERMINALS ABOVE 1KFT. WINDS ON SAT WILL BE NORTHEAST AOB 10 KT. RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF AT THE INLAND SITES BY 21Z...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND AREA WIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED INITIAL SEA HEIGHTS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATABASE GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 1 FOOT WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE. NE WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO 2 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH 3 FOOTERS STARTING TO
SHOW UP BY DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE ESE OR SE ACROSS THE
VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS TIL NEAR SUNSET. OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BE FROM THE NE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT LATER THIS EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT...BUILDING
TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SAT MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES/LOWS PASS
EAST OF THE WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT
AND NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KT. EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS. EXCEPTION WILL BE
LOCATIONS SHELTERED TO NORTHEAST FLOW OR WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
HERE SEAS WOULD BE 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON MONDAY. AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH THE WATERS
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BUT OVERALL EXPECT MORE VARIABLE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS. MAY SEE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO OFF SHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST BUT A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BY TUES.

AS THIS LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUES INTO WED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.
THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA
SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7
TO 8 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS ON WED. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAINLY ON
WED AND LASTING INTO THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 192334
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
633 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL PASS OFF
THE COAST SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW RAIN HAS ADVANCED AS FAR
EAST AS EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH ANALYZED &
FORECAST LIFT ON THE 300K-305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. WHILE VIRTUALLY
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOIST LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS WITHIN THIS LAYER (10000-15000 FT) SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/1 AM
EST...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE TO
OVERCOME. COMPARING VARIOUS MODELS MEAN RH IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER
AT 06, 09, AND 12Z THE GFS IS THE MOST MOIST WITH THE NAM THE
DRIEST. 18Z GFS MOS POPS APPEAR TO BE TAKING THE DRY AIR QUITE
SERIOUSLY...AND EYEBALLING FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT SHOULD TAKE A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS.

WITH THIS IN MIND I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL SE NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABLY WON`T OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. POPS HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN INCREASED FOR THE
FLORENCE-DARLINGTON-KINGSTREE AREA LATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MADE AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
MOST OF OUR TEMPERATURE DROP TO OCCUR THIS EVENING, WITH FAIRLY
STEADY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
300 PM FOLLOWS...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEDGE
STRONGLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY SAT MORNING. MEANTIME...A
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ITS MOST DIRECT IMPACTS EXPECTED ON
SAT.

HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY ENCROACHING FROM THE W AND SW AND
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE MID AND LATE EVE
HOURS...BECOMING CLOUDY BY/AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BELOW 1500-2000 FT WILL BE NE TO ENE TONIGHT. ABOVE THAT
SHALLOW LAYER...THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY MOIST WSW
FLOW. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE LATE. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW LEVELS
STUBBORNLY HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE DRY AIR IS CERTAINLY WELL REPRESENTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A SEABREEZE HAS PUSHED
ONSHORE AND SOME OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS SEEN DEWPOINTS RECOVER
INTO THE 30S. MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW SOON THE PRECIPITATION WILL
START AND WHETHER IT WILL BE MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
SHOW POPS RAMPING UP TOWARD MORNING...BUT REMAINING IN THE GOOD
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
RESERVED FOR SAT.

LOW TEMPS ALSO A CHALLENGE AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO
KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED...BUT DRY AIR COUPLED WITH MAINLY THIN CLOUD
COVER THIS EVE WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THUS...WE MAY END UP WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS TEMPS SHOULD
TEND TO STABILIZE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING LIGHT
RAINFALL DROPPING THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN DROP TEMPS AT THE
SURFACE NEAR DAWN. WILL FORECAST A SHARP DROP IN EVE TEMPS WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S...BUT MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
FEAR BASIN WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOWEST TO THICKEN. THERE IS NO
CONCERN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER THAN A CHILLY LIQUID RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND CLOUDY WEEKEND ON TAP WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SURFACE WAVES PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE FIRST
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING 5H
SHORTWAVE. THE SURFACE WAVE/LOW IS RATHER UNINSPIRING BUT DOES
PROVIDE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
DOWN THE COAST ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS A PERIOD SAT INTO SAT
EVENING WHERE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...IS
PRESENT. ALTHOUGH POP REMAINS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
TOTAL QPF WILL BE LOW. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO THE COAST. SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES MOVE
EAST SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
DRYING OCCURS ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUIET MOIST WITH THE WEDGE
HOLDING STRONG. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
HIGHS RUNNING BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS NEAR CLIMO. ALTHOUGH NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE NEXT AND CURRENTLY BEST CHANCE AT SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE PERIOD
WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE
MOVES UP THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE STALLED OFF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES PUSHING DOWN THE COAST AS THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN AN AREA OF INCREASE DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEED 1.25 INCH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD LEAD TO
RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED IN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW JUST OFF SHORE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH BY MON
AFTERNOON THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL GET PUSHED INLAND SLIGHTLY
DRIVING WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY WEATHER INTO COASTAL AREAS.
ITS ALWAYS TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BUT FOR NOW WILL
SHOW A TREND OF WARMING ALONG THE COAST. PCP MAY BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND COASTAL CAROLINAS END UP
IN A NW FLOW ON THE BACK END INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER WARMER
AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEREFORE
SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE MON MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY DEEPER
WARMER AIR BRIEFLY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN COOLER AIR THROUGH MON
NIGHT.

DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUES INTO WED BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP TO WET
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOL BUT WILL WARM AS COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT
PUSHES INLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUES. TIGHT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON
MON BETWEEN COOLER TEMPS INLAND...IN THE 40S MOST PLACES...TO
POSSIBLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. BY TUES THE WARMER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE WESTERN REACHES OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA LEAVING TEMPS CLOSER
TO 60 MOST PLACES FOR TUES AND WED UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY
THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE INTO SAT MORNING
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING -RA AND LOWERING CIGS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND
DAYBREAK. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INITIALLY KEEP CIGS
VFR...BUT AS RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL...CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR
LEVELS BY AROUND MIDDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CIGS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL
TERMINALS ABOVE 1KFT. WINDS ON SAT WILL BE NORTHEAST AOB 10 KT. RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF AT THE INLAND SITES BY 21Z...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND AREA WIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED INITIAL SEA HEIGHTS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATABASE GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 1 FOOT WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE. NE WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO 2 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH 3 FOOTERS STARTING TO
SHOW UP BY DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE ESE OR SE ACROSS THE
VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS TIL NEAR SUNSET. OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BE FROM THE NE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT LATER THIS EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT...BUILDING
TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SAT MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES/LOWS PASS
EAST OF THE WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT
AND NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KT. EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS. EXCEPTION WILL BE
LOCATIONS SHELTERED TO NORTHEAST FLOW OR WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
HERE SEAS WOULD BE 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON MONDAY. AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH THE WATERS
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BUT OVERALL EXPECT MORE VARIABLE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS. MAY SEE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO OFF SHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST BUT A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BY TUES.

AS THIS LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUES INTO WED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.
THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA
SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7
TO 8 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS ON WED. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAINLY ON
WED AND LASTING INTO THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 192025
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
325 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL PASS OFF
THE COAST SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND BEGIN TO WEDGE STRONGLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY SAT
MORNING. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ITS MOST
DIRECT IMPACTS EXPECTED ON SAT.

HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY ENCROACHING FROM THE W AND SW AND
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE MID AND LATE EVE
HOURS...BECOMING CLOUDY BY/AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BELOW 1500-2000 FT WILL BE NE TO ENE TONIGHT. ABOVE THAT
SHALLOW LAYER...THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY MOIST WSW
FLOW. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE LATE. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW LEVELS
STUBBORNLY HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE DRY AIR IS CERTAINLY WELL REPRESENTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A SEABREEZE HAS PUSHED
ONSHORE AND SOME OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS SEEN DEWPOINTS RECOVER
INTO THE 30S. MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW SOON THE PRECIPITATION WILL
START AND WHETHER IT WILL BE MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
SHOW POPS RAMPING UP TOWARD MORNING...BUT REMAINING IN THE GOOD
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
RESERVED FOR SAT.

LOW TEMPS ALSO A CHALLENGE AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO
KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED...BUT DRY AIR COUPLED WITH MAINLY THIN CLOUD
COVER THIS EVE WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THUS...WE MAY END UP WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS TEMPS SHOULD
TEND TO STABILIZE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING LIGHT
RAINFALL DROPPING THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN DROP TEMPS AT THE
SURFACE NEAR DAWN. WILL FORECAST A SHARP DROP IN EVE TEMPS WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S...BUT MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
FEAR BASIN WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOWEST TO THICKEN. THERE IS NO
CONCERN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER THAN A CHILLY LIQUID RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND CLOUDY WEEKEND ON TAP WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SURFACE WAVES PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE FIRST
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING 5H
SHORTWAVE. THE SURFACE WAVE/LOW IS RATHER UNINSPIRING BUT DOES
PROVIDE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
DOWN THE COAST ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS A PERIOD SAT INTO SAT
EVENING WHERE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...IS
PRESENT. ALTHOUGH POP REMAINS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
TOTAL QPF WILL BE LOW. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO THE COAST. SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES MOVE
EAST SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
DRYING OCCURS ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUIET MOIST WITH THE WEDGE
HOLDING STRONG. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
HIGHS RUNNING BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS NEAR CLIMO. ALTHOUGH NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE NEXT AND CURRENTLY BEST CHANCE AT SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE PERIOD
WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE
MOVES UP THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE STALLED OFF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES PUSHING DOWN THE COAST AS THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN AN AREA OF INCREASE DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEED 1.25 INCH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD LEAD TO
RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED IN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW JUST OFF SHORE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH BY MON
AFTERNOON THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL GET PUSHED INLAND SLIGHTLY
DRIVING WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY WEATHER INTO COASTAL AREAS.
ITS ALWAYS TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BUT FOR NOW WILL
SHOW A TREND OF WARMING ALONG THE COAST. PCP MAY BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND COASTAL CAROLINAS END UP
IN A NW FLOW ON THE BACK END INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER WARMER
AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEREFORE
SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE MON MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY DEEPER
WARMER AIR BRIEFLY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN COOLER AIR THROUGH MON
NIGHT.

DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUES INTO WED BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP TO WET
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOL BUT WILL WARM AS COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT
PUSHES INLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUES. TIGHT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON
MON BETWEEN COOLER TEMPS INLAND...IN THE 40S MOST PLACES...TO
POSSIBLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. BY TUES THE WARMER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE WESTERN REACHES OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA LEAVING TEMPS CLOSER
TO 60 MOST PLACES FOR TUES AND WED UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY
THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF
CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT KICKS IN. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BUT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NAM IS A LITTLE BIT WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS FROM
THE ESE OR SE ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS TIL NEAR SUNSET.
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE NE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
LATER THIS EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT...BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SAT
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES/LOWS PASS
EAST OF THE WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT
AND NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KT. EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS. EXCEPTION WILL BE
LOCATIONS SHELTERED TO NORTHEAST FLOW OR WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
HERE SEAS WOULD BE 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON MONDAY. AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH THE WATERS
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BUT OVERALL EXPECT MORE VARIABLE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS. MAY SEE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO OFF SHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST BUT A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BY TUES.

AS THIS LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUES INTO WED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.
THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA
SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7
TO 8 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS ON WED. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAINLY ON
WED AND LASTING INTO THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43/RJD







000
FXUS62 KILM 192025
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
325 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL PASS OFF
THE COAST SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND BEGIN TO WEDGE STRONGLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY SAT
MORNING. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ITS MOST
DIRECT IMPACTS EXPECTED ON SAT.

HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY ENCROACHING FROM THE W AND SW AND
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE MID AND LATE EVE
HOURS...BECOMING CLOUDY BY/AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BELOW 1500-2000 FT WILL BE NE TO ENE TONIGHT. ABOVE THAT
SHALLOW LAYER...THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY MOIST WSW
FLOW. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE LATE. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW LEVELS
STUBBORNLY HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE DRY AIR IS CERTAINLY WELL REPRESENTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A SEABREEZE HAS PUSHED
ONSHORE AND SOME OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS SEEN DEWPOINTS RECOVER
INTO THE 30S. MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW SOON THE PRECIPITATION WILL
START AND WHETHER IT WILL BE MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
SHOW POPS RAMPING UP TOWARD MORNING...BUT REMAINING IN THE GOOD
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
RESERVED FOR SAT.

LOW TEMPS ALSO A CHALLENGE AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO
KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED...BUT DRY AIR COUPLED WITH MAINLY THIN CLOUD
COVER THIS EVE WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THUS...WE MAY END UP WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS TEMPS SHOULD
TEND TO STABILIZE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING LIGHT
RAINFALL DROPPING THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN DROP TEMPS AT THE
SURFACE NEAR DAWN. WILL FORECAST A SHARP DROP IN EVE TEMPS WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S...BUT MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
FEAR BASIN WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOWEST TO THICKEN. THERE IS NO
CONCERN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER THAN A CHILLY LIQUID RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND CLOUDY WEEKEND ON TAP WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SURFACE WAVES PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE FIRST
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING 5H
SHORTWAVE. THE SURFACE WAVE/LOW IS RATHER UNINSPIRING BUT DOES
PROVIDE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
DOWN THE COAST ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS A PERIOD SAT INTO SAT
EVENING WHERE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...IS
PRESENT. ALTHOUGH POP REMAINS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
TOTAL QPF WILL BE LOW. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO THE COAST. SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES MOVE
EAST SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
DRYING OCCURS ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUIET MOIST WITH THE WEDGE
HOLDING STRONG. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
HIGHS RUNNING BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS NEAR CLIMO. ALTHOUGH NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE NEXT AND CURRENTLY BEST CHANCE AT SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE PERIOD
WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE
MOVES UP THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE STALLED OFF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES PUSHING DOWN THE COAST AS THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN AN AREA OF INCREASE DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEED 1.25 INCH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD LEAD TO
RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED IN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW JUST OFF SHORE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH BY MON
AFTERNOON THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL GET PUSHED INLAND SLIGHTLY
DRIVING WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY WEATHER INTO COASTAL AREAS.
ITS ALWAYS TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BUT FOR NOW WILL
SHOW A TREND OF WARMING ALONG THE COAST. PCP MAY BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND COASTAL CAROLINAS END UP
IN A NW FLOW ON THE BACK END INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER WARMER
AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEREFORE
SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE MON MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY DEEPER
WARMER AIR BRIEFLY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN COOLER AIR THROUGH MON
NIGHT.

DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUES INTO WED BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP TO WET
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOL BUT WILL WARM AS COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT
PUSHES INLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUES. TIGHT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON
MON BETWEEN COOLER TEMPS INLAND...IN THE 40S MOST PLACES...TO
POSSIBLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. BY TUES THE WARMER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE WESTERN REACHES OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA LEAVING TEMPS CLOSER
TO 60 MOST PLACES FOR TUES AND WED UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY
THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF
CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT KICKS IN. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BUT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NAM IS A LITTLE BIT WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS FROM
THE ESE OR SE ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS TIL NEAR SUNSET.
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE NE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
LATER THIS EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT...BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SAT
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES/LOWS PASS
EAST OF THE WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT
AND NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KT. EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS. EXCEPTION WILL BE
LOCATIONS SHELTERED TO NORTHEAST FLOW OR WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
HERE SEAS WOULD BE 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON MONDAY. AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH THE WATERS
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BUT OVERALL EXPECT MORE VARIABLE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS. MAY SEE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO OFF SHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST BUT A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BY TUES.

AS THIS LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUES INTO WED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.
THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA
SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7
TO 8 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS ON WED. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAINLY ON
WED AND LASTING INTO THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43/RJD








000
FXUS62 KILM 191737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
BUT NO RAINFALL UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE
DOWN THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY
SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
BY SAT MORNING. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH
ITS MOST DIRECT IMPACTS FELT ON SAT.

MAINLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AND THICKEN FROM W TO E LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY THIS EVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT RAIN
WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO
QUICKLY INCREASE. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.
STILL...WE EXPECT THE CURVE TO LEVEL OFF WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S WELL N TO AROUND 60 FAR S. LOWS TONIGHT MAY STILL DROP INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S...BUT WILL EXAMINE THIS CLOSER AS INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF
CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT KICKS IN. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BUT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NAM IS A LITTLE BIT WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...NNE WINDS WILL VEER TO NE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT...
BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SAT MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43/RJD












000
FXUS62 KILM 191737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
BUT NO RAINFALL UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE
DOWN THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY
SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
BY SAT MORNING. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH
ITS MOST DIRECT IMPACTS FELT ON SAT.

MAINLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AND THICKEN FROM W TO E LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY THIS EVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT RAIN
WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO
QUICKLY INCREASE. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.
STILL...WE EXPECT THE CURVE TO LEVEL OFF WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S WELL N TO AROUND 60 FAR S. LOWS TONIGHT MAY STILL DROP INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S...BUT WILL EXAMINE THIS CLOSER AS INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF
CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT KICKS IN. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BUT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NAM IS A LITTLE BIT WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...NNE WINDS WILL VEER TO NE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT...
BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SAT MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43/RJD













000
FXUS62 KILM 191530
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1030 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
BUT NO RAINFALL UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE
DOWN THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY
SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
BY SAT MORNING. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH
ITS MOST DIRECT IMPACTS FELT ON SAT.

MAINLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AND THICKEN FROM W TO E LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY THIS EVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT RAIN
WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO
QUICKLY INCREASE. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.
STILL...WE EXPECT THE CURVE TO LEVEL OFF WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S WELL N TO AROUND 60 FAR S. LOWS TONIGHT MAY STILL DROP INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S...BUT WILL EXAMINE THIS CLOSER AS INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF
CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES MODERATE. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...NNE WINDS WILL VEER TO NE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT...
BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SAT MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43










000
FXUS62 KILM 191123
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
624 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY CREATING ONE
LAST NICE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST
EXTENSION OF A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES
A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH A BIAS TOWARDS THE BETTER-PERFORMING GFS
MOS...GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST PLACES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT MAINLY CIRRUS OF
VARYING EXTENT AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THIS COVER WILL LEAD TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
STAGE ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL TO MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF
CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES MODERATE. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 KT RANGE TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KTS OVER OUR SC WATERS OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SW. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/JDW









000
FXUS62 KILM 191123
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
624 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY CREATING ONE
LAST NICE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST
EXTENSION OF A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES
A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH A BIAS TOWARDS THE BETTER-PERFORMING GFS
MOS...GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST PLACES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT MAINLY CIRRUS OF
VARYING EXTENT AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THIS COVER WILL LEAD TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
STAGE ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL TO MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF
CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES MODERATE. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 KT RANGE TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KTS OVER OUR SC WATERS OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SW. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/JDW










000
FXUS62 KILM 191119
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
619 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY CREATING ONE
LAST NICE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST
EXTENSION OF A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES
A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH A BIAS TOWARDS THE BETTER-PERFORMING GFS
MOS...GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST PLACES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT MAINLY CIRRUS OF
VARYING EXTENT AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THIS COVER WILL LEAD TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
STAGE ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL TO MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM WITH CONTINUED SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...MORE CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE
CAROLINAS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE
LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CIGS 10-15KFT
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 KT RANGE TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KTS OVER OUR SC WATERS OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SW. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK/JDW







000
FXUS62 KILM 191119
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
619 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY CREATING ONE
LAST NICE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST
EXTENSION OF A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES
A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH A BIAS TOWARDS THE BETTER-PERFORMING GFS
MOS...GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST PLACES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT MAINLY CIRRUS OF
VARYING EXTENT AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THIS COVER WILL LEAD TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
STAGE ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL TO MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM WITH CONTINUED SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...MORE CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE
CAROLINAS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE
LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CIGS 10-15KFT
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 KT RANGE TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KTS OVER OUR SC WATERS OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SW. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK/JDW






000
FXUS62 KILM 190858
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
358 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY CREATING ONE
LAST NICE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH A BIAS TOWARDS THE
BETTER-PERFORMING GFS MOS...GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST PLACES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT MAINLY CIRRUS OF
VARYING EXTENT AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THIS COVER WILL LEAD TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
STAGE ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL TO MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM WITH CONTINUED SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...MORE CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE
CAROLINAS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE
LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CIGS 10-15KFT
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 KT RANGE
TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVER OUR SC WATERS OVERNIGHT AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2
FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK/JDW










000
FXUS62 KILM 190858
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
358 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY CREATING ONE
LAST NICE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH A BIAS TOWARDS THE
BETTER-PERFORMING GFS MOS...GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST PLACES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT MAINLY CIRRUS OF
VARYING EXTENT AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THIS COVER WILL LEAD TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
STAGE ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL TO MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM WITH CONTINUED SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...MORE CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE
CAROLINAS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE
LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CIGS 10-15KFT
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 KT RANGE
TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVER OUR SC WATERS OVERNIGHT AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2
FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK/JDW









000
FXUS62 KILM 190541
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1241 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 12:30 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING A
CHILLY AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +6C SHOULD
SLIP TO +4C BY DAYBREAK. A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM
TIME TO TIME...AS WILL SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 5000-7000 FT
RANGE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WEST OF I-95. ANALYSIS OF MODEL RH AND
ISENTROPIC FIELDS INDICATES THIS STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD HAVE
TROUBLE MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST TONIGHT -- A STRIPE OF HIGHER RH
(60-75 PERCENT IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER) SHOULD EXTEND DOWN TO THE
COAST BY 12Z FRI BUT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE NOTED
THROUGHOUT THE 290-300K THETA SURFACES CLOUDS SHOULD BE ERODING AS
THEY PRESS EASTWARD. SKY COVER FORECASTS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
NEAR THE COAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY INLAND.

ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT...STILL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM WITH CONTINUED SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...MORE CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE
CAROLINAS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE
LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CIGS 10-15KFT
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTH WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET CURRENTLY. WAVE
SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN 11
SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/MBB






000
FXUS62 KILM 190541
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1241 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 12:30 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING A
CHILLY AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +6C SHOULD
SLIP TO +4C BY DAYBREAK. A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM
TIME TO TIME...AS WILL SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 5000-7000 FT
RANGE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WEST OF I-95. ANALYSIS OF MODEL RH AND
ISENTROPIC FIELDS INDICATES THIS STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD HAVE
TROUBLE MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST TONIGHT -- A STRIPE OF HIGHER RH
(60-75 PERCENT IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER) SHOULD EXTEND DOWN TO THE
COAST BY 12Z FRI BUT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE NOTED
THROUGHOUT THE 290-300K THETA SURFACES CLOUDS SHOULD BE ERODING AS
THEY PRESS EASTWARD. SKY COVER FORECASTS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
NEAR THE COAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY INLAND.

ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT...STILL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM WITH CONTINUED SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...MORE CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE
CAROLINAS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE
LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CIGS 10-15KFT
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTH WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET CURRENTLY. WAVE
SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN 11
SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/MBB





000
FXUS62 KILM 190225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
925 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES IS PUSHING A CHILLY AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND +6C SHOULD SLIP TO +4C BY DAYBREAK. A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL MOVE
ACROSS FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WILL SOME STRATCUMULUS IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WEST OF I-95. ANALYSIS OF
MODEL RH AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS INDICATES THIS STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD
HAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST TONIGHT -- A STRIPE OF HIGHER RH
(60-75 PERCENT IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER) SHOULD EXTEND DOWN TO THE
COAST BY 12Z FRI BUT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE NOTED THROUGHOUT
THE 290-300K THETA SURFACES CLOUDS SHOULD BE ERODING AS THEY PRESS
EASTWARD. SKY COVER FORECASTS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR NEAR THE
COAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY INLAND.

ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT...STILL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES
AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK DIMINISH THE
THREAT OF ANY FOG CONCERNS. AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE PASSING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. THE
WINDS WILL BE N-NE LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL SITES ON FRI.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET
CURRENTLY. WAVE SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN 11 SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 190225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
925 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES IS PUSHING A CHILLY AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND +6C SHOULD SLIP TO +4C BY DAYBREAK. A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL MOVE
ACROSS FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WILL SOME STRATCUMULUS IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WEST OF I-95. ANALYSIS OF
MODEL RH AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS INDICATES THIS STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD
HAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST TONIGHT -- A STRIPE OF HIGHER RH
(60-75 PERCENT IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER) SHOULD EXTEND DOWN TO THE
COAST BY 12Z FRI BUT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE NOTED THROUGHOUT
THE 290-300K THETA SURFACES CLOUDS SHOULD BE ERODING AS THEY PRESS
EASTWARD. SKY COVER FORECASTS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR NEAR THE
COAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY INLAND.

ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT...STILL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES
AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK DIMINISH THE
THREAT OF ANY FOG CONCERNS. AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE PASSING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. THE
WINDS WILL BE N-NE LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL SITES ON FRI.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET
CURRENTLY. WAVE SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN 11 SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 182347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
646 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE BEACHES TURNED
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WHICH IS JUST
NOW DISSIPATING. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE ONLY MILDLY IMPEDED BY CIRRUS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS AT OR BELOW THE
COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO: LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOME UPPER 20S IN THE
NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE UNDER A FLAT
MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM BY IN INTERVALS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S. I HAVE ADDED A MARGINAL
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WHICH LOWERS READINGS SLIGHTLY IN THE FAVORED
AREAS. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS MINIMAL AS THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES
AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK DIMINISH THE
THREAT OF ANY FOG CONCERNS. AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE PASSING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. THE
WINDS WILL BE N-NE LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL SITES ON FRI.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...A SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TURNED WIND
DIRECTIONS ONSHORE AT ALL THE BEACHES WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
THIS SEABREEZE CIRCULATION IS DISSIPATING AND WILL BE REPLACED BY
THE WEAK SYNOPTIC WIND FROM THE NORTH DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET CURRENTLY. WAVE
SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN 11
SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 182347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
646 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE BEACHES TURNED
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WHICH IS JUST
NOW DISSIPATING. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE ONLY MILDLY IMPEDED BY CIRRUS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS AT OR BELOW THE
COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO: LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOME UPPER 20S IN THE
NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE UNDER A FLAT
MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM BY IN INTERVALS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S. I HAVE ADDED A MARGINAL
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WHICH LOWERS READINGS SLIGHTLY IN THE FAVORED
AREAS. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS MINIMAL AS THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES
AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK DIMINISH THE
THREAT OF ANY FOG CONCERNS. AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE PASSING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. THE
WINDS WILL BE N-NE LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL SITES ON FRI.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...A SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TURNED WIND
DIRECTIONS ONSHORE AT ALL THE BEACHES WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
THIS SEABREEZE CIRCULATION IS DISSIPATING AND WILL BE REPLACED BY
THE WEAK SYNOPTIC WIND FROM THE NORTH DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET CURRENTLY. WAVE
SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN 11
SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 182027
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
327 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY AND
TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST...MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL AT
THE SURFACE UNDER A FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM BY IN INTERVALS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S. I
HAVE ADDED A MARGINAL RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WHICH LOWERS READINGS
SLIGHTLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS MINIMAL
AS THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
PRECLUDE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR MAINLY A CIRRUS CEILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. NO WEATHER TO SPEAK ABOUT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE. FRIDAY...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT RESIDES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
NEAR TEN KNOTS WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND PERSIST THROUGH
1200 UTC FRIDAY. SEAS...COMPRISED OF A VERY SUBTLE 10 SECOND SWELL
COMPONENT AND FOUR SECOND WIND WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE 1-2 FEET.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 182027
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
327 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY AND
TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST...MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL AT
THE SURFACE UNDER A FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM BY IN INTERVALS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S. I
HAVE ADDED A MARGINAL RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WHICH LOWERS READINGS
SLIGHTLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS MINIMAL
AS THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
PRECLUDE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR MAINLY A CIRRUS CEILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. NO WEATHER TO SPEAK ABOUT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE. FRIDAY...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT RESIDES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
NEAR TEN KNOTS WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND PERSIST THROUGH
1200 UTC FRIDAY. SEAS...COMPRISED OF A VERY SUBTLE 10 SECOND SWELL
COMPONENT AND FOUR SECOND WIND WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE 1-2 FEET.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL






000
FXUS62 KILM 181723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1223 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE UNDER A FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM BY IN INTERVALS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. THE NAM AND
GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S. I HAVE
ADDED A MARGINAL RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WHICH LOWERS READINGS
SLIGHTLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS MINIMAL AS
THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
THREAT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR MAINLY A CIRRUS CEILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
NO WEATHER TO SPEAK ABOUT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE. FRIDAY...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT RESIDES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
NEAR TEN KNOTS WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND PERSIST THROUGH
1200 UTC FRIDAY. SEAS...COMPRISED OF A VERY SUBTLE 10 SECOND SWELL
COMPONENT AND FOUR SECOND WIND WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE 1-2 FEET.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 181723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1223 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE UNDER A FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM BY IN INTERVALS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. THE NAM AND
GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S. I HAVE
ADDED A MARGINAL RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WHICH LOWERS READINGS
SLIGHTLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS MINIMAL AS
THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
THREAT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR MAINLY A CIRRUS CEILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
NO WEATHER TO SPEAK ABOUT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE. FRIDAY...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT RESIDES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
NEAR TEN KNOTS WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND PERSIST THROUGH
1200 UTC FRIDAY. SEAS...COMPRISED OF A VERY SUBTLE 10 SECOND SWELL
COMPONENT AND FOUR SECOND WIND WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE 1-2 FEET.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 181652
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1150 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INTERVALS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH PERIODS OF
BRIGHTER SUNSHINE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS. NO
CHANGES WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR MAINLY A CIRRUS CEILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
NO WEATHER TO SPEAK ABOUT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE. FRIDAY...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS...MOSTLY ON THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN BOTH IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL












000
FXUS62 KILM 181652
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1150 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INTERVALS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH PERIODS OF
BRIGHTER SUNSHINE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS. NO
CHANGES WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR MAINLY A CIRRUS CEILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
NO WEATHER TO SPEAK ABOUT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE. FRIDAY...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS...MOSTLY ON THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN BOTH IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL











000
FXUS62 KILM 181424
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
924 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INTERVALS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH PERIODS OF
BRIGHTER SUNSHINE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS. NO
CHANGES WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A BIT OF FOG HAS POPPED UP JUST NOW...SHOULD NOT LAST
PAST 13Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A BLANKET OF
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE IN AND OUT TODAY...SHOULD BE A NICE
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY TODAY...BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. A CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD CEILING TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR
NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS...MOSTLY ON THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN BOTH IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 181121
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
621 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST BIT OF COLD ADVECTION
THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY AND LOWER TO MID 30S
OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE
FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT WESTERLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO A MORE
MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A BIT OF FOG HAS POPPED UP JUST NOW...SHOULD NOT LAST
PAST 13Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A BLANKET OF
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE IN AND OUT TODAY...SHOULD BE A NICE
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY TODAY...BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. A CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD CEILING TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR
NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR
TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 181121
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
621 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST BIT OF COLD ADVECTION
THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY AND LOWER TO MID 30S
OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE
FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT WESTERLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO A MORE
MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A BIT OF FOG HAS POPPED UP JUST NOW...SHOULD NOT LAST
PAST 13Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A BLANKET OF
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE IN AND OUT TODAY...SHOULD BE A NICE
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY TODAY...BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. A CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD CEILING TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR
NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR
TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/JDW






000
FXUS62 KILM 181118
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
BIT OF COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY
AND LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN QUITE FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY
ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO A MORE MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A BIT OF FOG HAS POPPED UP JUST NOW...SHOULD NOT LAST
PAST 13Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A BLANKET OF
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE IN AND OUT TODAY...SHOULD BE A NICE
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY TODAY...BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. A CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD CEILING TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR
NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/JDW












000
FXUS62 KILM 181118
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
BIT OF COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY
AND LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN QUITE FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY
ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO A MORE MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A BIT OF FOG HAS POPPED UP JUST NOW...SHOULD NOT LAST
PAST 13Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A BLANKET OF
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE IN AND OUT TODAY...SHOULD BE A NICE
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY TODAY...BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. A CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD CEILING TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR
NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/JDW













000
FXUS62 KILM 180846
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
BIT OF COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY
AND LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN QUITE FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY
ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO A MORE MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CALM OR
LGT SW WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LGT NW-N ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE PATCHY BR WILL DEVELOP IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE...BUT SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SUPPORT DENSE FOG. VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH N-NE
WINDS BECOMING LGT E IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL
IN THE EVENING. WITH WORSE CASE MID-LEVEL CIGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW









000
FXUS62 KILM 180846
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
BIT OF COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY
AND LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN QUITE FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY
ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO A MORE MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CALM OR
LGT SW WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LGT NW-N ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE PATCHY BR WILL DEVELOP IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE...BUT SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SUPPORT DENSE FOG. VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH N-NE
WINDS BECOMING LGT E IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL
IN THE EVENING. WITH WORSE CASE MID-LEVEL CIGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW










000
FXUS62 KILM 180846
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
BIT OF COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY
AND LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN QUITE FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY
ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO A MORE MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CALM OR
LGT SW WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LGT NW-N ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE PATCHY BR WILL DEVELOP IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE...BUT SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SUPPORT DENSE FOG. VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH N-NE
WINDS BECOMING LGT E IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL
IN THE EVENING. WITH WORSE CASE MID-LEVEL CIGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW










000
FXUS62 KILM 180846
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
BIT OF COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY
AND LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN QUITE FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY
ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO A MORE MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CALM OR
LGT SW WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LGT NW-N ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE PATCHY BR WILL DEVELOP IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE...BUT SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SUPPORT DENSE FOG. VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH N-NE
WINDS BECOMING LGT E IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL
IN THE EVENING. WITH WORSE CASE MID-LEVEL CIGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW









000
FXUS62 KILM 180537
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURGE LINE HAS REACHED SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
SE NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 200-330 AM...AND NE SOUTH CAROLINA
BETWEEN 300-600 AM...HERALDED BY A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS. INFRARED
SATELLITE SHOWS A THIN OVERCAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH
LESS CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. A PEEK UPWARDS FROM THE
OFFICE PARKING LOT JUST MINUTES AGO SHOWS PLENTY OF BRIGHT STARS
SHINING THROUGH BUT AN INDISTINCT MILKINESS OBSCURING THE DIMMER
ONES. SKY COVER FORECASTS TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY ARE
PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

DEWPOINTS AT THE COAST HAVE FALLEN BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND CHS SHOW TOO STEEP A HYDROLAPSE IN THE
LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SIGNIFICANT
FOG...SO I HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECASTS: LOWS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO
REACH 35-40 FOR MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 630
PM FOLLOWS...

LIGHT WEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURGE LINE
WILL PROBABLY BECOME CALM HERE AT THE SURFACE IN THE NEXT HOUR. WITH
DEWPOINTS REBOUNDING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF THE SANDHILLS THIS
OPENS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING THIS LATER THIS EVENING. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS CLOUD COVER AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE
ADVANCING FRONT/SURGE WILL DISTURB THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ERODE ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS...PROBABLY IN THE 2-4
AM TIMEFRAME. CHANGES WITH THIS NEAR-TERM UPDATE CENTER ON HOURLY
FORECAST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS/FOG POTENTIAL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND POTENT LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ONLY SERVE TO DAMPEN TEMPERATURES A
BIT THURSDAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...THE ONLY ISSUE IS
HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS 200MB RH
FIELDS CAPTURES THIS FAIRLY WELL. I HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT
VERY LATE AS WELL AS ADDING PATCHY FOG AS LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WARRANT. WENT WITH THE COOLER NAM/MET NUMBERS
FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...QUIET WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL COME TO AN END LATE FRI AS POPS FINALLY RETURN TO THE
FORECAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THU MORNING...THOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITHIN THE SHALLOW
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES ON THU AND FRI...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN THE PEE DEE REGION. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
THU NIGHT.

A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS TX FRI MORNING AND
CONTINUE RACING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP
INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE FRI. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
WILL STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST DURING THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD...
MOIST OVERRUNNING ALONG THE 300K SURFACE WILL ALLOW LIGHT RAIN TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT FRI. LOOKING AT THE
FCST SOUNDINGS...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR
BELOW 600 MB EVEN AFTER 06Z SAT. ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST SREF
PROBS SUGGEST MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT MORNING AT
KILM AND OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL TRIM BACK
POPS AND QPF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION. STILL HAVE
INCLUDED CHC TO LIKELY POPS AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT MOST OF THE LOCAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
CONFINED TO SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYER SATURATION EITHER UNDERWAY OR
JUST ABOUT COMPLETE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HAVE A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. A SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL LOW WILL MEANWHILE BE TRAVERSING THE GULF STATES/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AREA. THIS LEADS TO FAIRLY DEEP BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT GENTLE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. IT`LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
YIELDS WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE AS HINTED AT BY SOME DIFFERING
MODEL OPINIONS. THE WRF SHOWS A FAIRLY EVEN DISTRIBUTION OF
PRECIPITATION AT LEAST THROUGH ITS MAIN 84 HOUR FCST WINDOW TO SAT
EVE. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS SUPPRESSING HIGHEST QPF OVER SRN
ZONES...WHICH MAY BE IN DEFERENCE TO THE DRY AIR BEING SUPPLIED BY
THE SFC WEDGE. THE CMC LARGELY AGREES WITH THIS OPINION AND SO THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN MINOTAUR TWEAKED ACCORDINGLY. BY EVENING THE DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE AND THE UPGLIDE PRETTY MUCH
SHUTS OFF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ASSOC
WITH THE CONTINUED WEDGING, THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION
AS THE SURFACE LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY.
BY MONDAY THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HAVE WASHED OUT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX MORE DEEPLY LOWERING THE OVERALL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BY EN-TRAINING DRY AIR FROM ABOVE...I.E. SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN. MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY ON TUESDAY AS
NEXT DEEP TROUGH GETS DUG OUT, THIS ONE FURTHER WEST. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE AND MAY BE STRONG IF THE FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING GFS
SOLUTION COMES TO PASS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CALM OR
LGT SW WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LGT NW-N ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE PATCHY BR WILL DEVELOP IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE...BUT SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SUPPORT DENSE FOG. VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH N-NE
WINDS BECOMING LGT E IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL
IN THE EVENING. WITH WORSE CASE MID-LEVEL CIGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS ARE VEERING MORE WESTERLY...ALBEIT MORE SLOWLY THAN I
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE SC COAST. THE FRONT/SURGE LINE IS DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA CURRENTLY...WITH THE 23Z HIGH-RES
MODEL RUNS SHOWING A 3-6 AM TIMING FOR THE WIND SHIFT FROM CAPE
FEAR DOWN TO WINYAH BAY. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 2 FEET WITH THE BULK
OF THE WAVE ENERGY IN A 10 SECOND SE SWELL.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT DURING THE
DAY THU BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THU
THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY RELAXED OVER THE
WATERS. A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATE FRI...AND IN RESPONSE THE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS FRI NIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT...AND SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 3 FT WITH A DOMINANT NE WIND CHOP AND A WEAK BACKGROUND
SE SWELL.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT A BANNER DAY FOR SAILING DUE
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN NO ADVISORY OR HEADLINES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN
A WEATHER SITUATION THAT CAN SOMETIMES YIELD EITHER. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS SLOWLY AND
MOVES FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST WINDS WILL BACK IN DIRECTION
WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SEAS SAVE A SMALL INCREASE IN THE BRUNSWICK
COUNTY NEARSHORE WAVE SHADOW. HEADING INTO MONDAY BRINGS A WEAKENING
OF THE OVERLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND THUS A WIND THAT TURNS A BIT
OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY, LIKELY DROPPING TO 10KT OR LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK/BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 180537
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURGE LINE HAS REACHED SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
SE NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 200-330 AM...AND NE SOUTH CAROLINA
BETWEEN 300-600 AM...HERALDED BY A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS. INFRARED
SATELLITE SHOWS A THIN OVERCAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH
LESS CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. A PEEK UPWARDS FROM THE
OFFICE PARKING LOT JUST MINUTES AGO SHOWS PLENTY OF BRIGHT STARS
SHINING THROUGH BUT AN INDISTINCT MILKINESS OBSCURING THE DIMMER
ONES. SKY COVER FORECASTS TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY ARE
PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

DEWPOINTS AT THE COAST HAVE FALLEN BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND CHS SHOW TOO STEEP A HYDROLAPSE IN THE
LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SIGNIFICANT
FOG...SO I HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECASTS: LOWS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO
REACH 35-40 FOR MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 630
PM FOLLOWS...

LIGHT WEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURGE LINE
WILL PROBABLY BECOME CALM HERE AT THE SURFACE IN THE NEXT HOUR. WITH
DEWPOINTS REBOUNDING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF THE SANDHILLS THIS
OPENS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING THIS LATER THIS EVENING. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS CLOUD COVER AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE
ADVANCING FRONT/SURGE WILL DISTURB THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ERODE ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS...PROBABLY IN THE 2-4
AM TIMEFRAME. CHANGES WITH THIS NEAR-TERM UPDATE CENTER ON HOURLY
FORECAST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS/FOG POTENTIAL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND POTENT LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ONLY SERVE TO DAMPEN TEMPERATURES A
BIT THURSDAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...THE ONLY ISSUE IS
HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS 200MB RH
FIELDS CAPTURES THIS FAIRLY WELL. I HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT
VERY LATE AS WELL AS ADDING PATCHY FOG AS LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WARRANT. WENT WITH THE COOLER NAM/MET NUMBERS
FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...QUIET WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL COME TO AN END LATE FRI AS POPS FINALLY RETURN TO THE
FORECAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THU MORNING...THOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITHIN THE SHALLOW
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES ON THU AND FRI...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN THE PEE DEE REGION. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
THU NIGHT.

A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS TX FRI MORNING AND
CONTINUE RACING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP
INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE FRI. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
WILL STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST DURING THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD...
MOIST OVERRUNNING ALONG THE 300K SURFACE WILL ALLOW LIGHT RAIN TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT FRI. LOOKING AT THE
FCST SOUNDINGS...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR
BELOW 600 MB EVEN AFTER 06Z SAT. ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST SREF
PROBS SUGGEST MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT MORNING AT
KILM AND OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL TRIM BACK
POPS AND QPF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION. STILL HAVE
INCLUDED CHC TO LIKELY POPS AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT MOST OF THE LOCAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
CONFINED TO SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYER SATURATION EITHER UNDERWAY OR
JUST ABOUT COMPLETE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HAVE A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. A SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL LOW WILL MEANWHILE BE TRAVERSING THE GULF STATES/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AREA. THIS LEADS TO FAIRLY DEEP BUT ALSO SOMEWHAT GENTLE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. IT`LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
YIELDS WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE AS HINTED AT BY SOME DIFFERING
MODEL OPINIONS. THE WRF SHOWS A FAIRLY EVEN DISTRIBUTION OF
PRECIPITATION AT LEAST THROUGH ITS MAIN 84 HOUR FCST WINDOW TO SAT
EVE. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS SUPPRESSING HIGHEST QPF OVER SRN
ZONES...WHICH MAY BE IN DEFERENCE TO THE DRY AIR BEING SUPPLIED BY
THE SFC WEDGE. THE CMC LARGELY AGREES WITH THIS OPINION AND SO THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN MINOTAUR TWEAKED ACCORDINGLY. BY EVENING THE DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE AND THE UPGLIDE PRETTY MUCH
SHUTS OFF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ASSOC
WITH THE CONTINUED WEDGING, THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION
AS THE SURFACE LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY.
BY MONDAY THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HAVE WASHED OUT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX MORE DEEPLY LOWERING THE OVERALL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BY EN-TRAINING DRY AIR FROM ABOVE...I.E. SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN. MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY ON TUESDAY AS
NEXT DEEP TROUGH GETS DUG OUT, THIS ONE FURTHER WEST. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE AND MAY BE STRONG IF THE FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING GFS
SOLUTION COMES TO PASS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CALM OR
LGT SW WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LGT NW-N ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE PATCHY BR WILL DEVELOP IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE...BUT SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SUPPORT DENSE FOG. VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH N-NE
WINDS BECOMING LGT E IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL
IN THE EVENING. WITH WORSE CASE MID-LEVEL CIGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS ARE VEERING MORE WESTERLY...ALBEIT MORE SLOWLY THAN I
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE SC COAST. THE FRONT/SURGE LINE IS DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA CURRENTLY...WITH THE 23Z HIGH-RES
MODEL RUNS SHOWING A 3-6 AM TIMING FOR THE WIND SHIFT FROM CAPE
FEAR DOWN TO WINYAH BAY. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 2 FEET WITH THE BULK
OF THE WAVE ENERGY IN A 10 SECOND SE SWELL.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT DURING THE
DAY THU BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THU
THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY RELAXED OVER THE
WATERS. A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATE FRI...AND IN RESPONSE THE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS FRI NIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT...AND SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 3 FT WITH A DOMINANT NE WIND CHOP AND A WEAK BACKGROUND
SE SWELL.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT A BANNER DAY FOR SAILING DUE
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN NO ADVISORY OR HEADLINES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN
A WEATHER SITUATION THAT CAN SOMETIMES YIELD EITHER. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS SLOWLY AND
MOVES FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST WINDS WILL BACK IN DIRECTION
WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SEAS SAVE A SMALL INCREASE IN THE BRUNSWICK
COUNTY NEARSHORE WAVE SHADOW. HEADING INTO MONDAY BRINGS A WEAKENING
OF THE OVERLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND THUS A WIND THAT TURNS A BIT
OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY, LIKELY DROPPING TO 10KT OR LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK/BJR





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