Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KILM 292351
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
751 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT
WEEK THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH
OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS IS BRINGING A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
ONSHORE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WARM DRY AIR ALOFT. DESPITE
INLAND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO
CONDITIONS ALOFT...AND SHOWERS WERE VERY ISOLATED. OTHER SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE HAVE HAD LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING IT TOWARD
SHORE...AND MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT
AS WELL.

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE A BIT
HIGHER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS
WELL. WIND SPEEDS AT 1000 FEET 12-15 KT CURRENTLY SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KT BY 3-4 AM...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
AND EAST OF I-95. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE 64-68 INLAND
TO AROUND 70 ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN WITH
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS WANTING TO
INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT THIS TIME
WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY MORNING
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS RATHER
SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE WEAK
RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA. FROM THIS POSITION THE HIGH IS GENERATING OVER A 2000
MILE LONG EASTERLY FETCH ENDING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.
FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE
LIGHT...BUT WE ARE STILL RECEIVING A 4 FOOT 8-9 SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL OFFSHORE...DAMPING DOWN BY ABOUT 1-2 FEET AS IT ENTERS THE
SHALLOWER WATER NEARSHORE. RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS 10-40
MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR. THESE HAVE SO FAR DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE
APPROACHED SHORE...AND MOST (BUT NOT ALL) MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 292351
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
751 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT
WEEK THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH
OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS IS BRINGING A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
ONSHORE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WARM DRY AIR ALOFT. DESPITE
INLAND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO
CONDITIONS ALOFT...AND SHOWERS WERE VERY ISOLATED. OTHER SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE HAVE HAD LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING IT TOWARD
SHORE...AND MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT
AS WELL.

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE A BIT
HIGHER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS
WELL. WIND SPEEDS AT 1000 FEET 12-15 KT CURRENTLY SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KT BY 3-4 AM...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
AND EAST OF I-95. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE 64-68 INLAND
TO AROUND 70 ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN WITH
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS WANTING TO
INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT THIS TIME
WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY MORNING
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS RATHER
SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE WEAK
RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA. FROM THIS POSITION THE HIGH IS GENERATING OVER A 2000
MILE LONG EASTERLY FETCH ENDING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.
FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE
LIGHT...BUT WE ARE STILL RECEIVING A 4 FOOT 8-9 SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL OFFSHORE...DAMPING DOWN BY ABOUT 1-2 FEET AS IT ENTERS THE
SHALLOWER WATER NEARSHORE. RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS 10-40
MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR. THESE HAVE SO FAR DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE
APPROACHED SHORE...AND MOST (BUT NOT ALL) MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 292351
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
751 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT
WEEK THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH
OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS IS BRINGING A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
ONSHORE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WARM DRY AIR ALOFT. DESPITE
INLAND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO
CONDITIONS ALOFT...AND SHOWERS WERE VERY ISOLATED. OTHER SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE HAVE HAD LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING IT TOWARD
SHORE...AND MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT
AS WELL.

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE A BIT
HIGHER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS
WELL. WIND SPEEDS AT 1000 FEET 12-15 KT CURRENTLY SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KT BY 3-4 AM...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
AND EAST OF I-95. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE 64-68 INLAND
TO AROUND 70 ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN WITH
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS WANTING TO
INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT THIS TIME
WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY MORNING
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS RATHER
SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE WEAK
RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA. FROM THIS POSITION THE HIGH IS GENERATING OVER A 2000
MILE LONG EASTERLY FETCH ENDING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.
FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE
LIGHT...BUT WE ARE STILL RECEIVING A 4 FOOT 8-9 SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL OFFSHORE...DAMPING DOWN BY ABOUT 1-2 FEET AS IT ENTERS THE
SHALLOWER WATER NEARSHORE. RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS 10-40
MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR. THESE HAVE SO FAR DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE
APPROACHED SHORE...AND MOST (BUT NOT ALL) MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 292351
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
751 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT
WEEK THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH
OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS IS BRINGING A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
ONSHORE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WARM DRY AIR ALOFT. DESPITE
INLAND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO
CONDITIONS ALOFT...AND SHOWERS WERE VERY ISOLATED. OTHER SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE HAVE HAD LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING IT TOWARD
SHORE...AND MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT
AS WELL.

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE A BIT
HIGHER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS
WELL. WIND SPEEDS AT 1000 FEET 12-15 KT CURRENTLY SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KT BY 3-4 AM...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
AND EAST OF I-95. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE 64-68 INLAND
TO AROUND 70 ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN WITH
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS WANTING TO
INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT THIS TIME
WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY MORNING
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS RATHER
SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE WEAK
RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA. FROM THIS POSITION THE HIGH IS GENERATING OVER A 2000
MILE LONG EASTERLY FETCH ENDING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.
FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE
LIGHT...BUT WE ARE STILL RECEIVING A 4 FOOT 8-9 SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL OFFSHORE...DAMPING DOWN BY ABOUT 1-2 FEET AS IT ENTERS THE
SHALLOWER WATER NEARSHORE. RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS 10-40
MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR. THESE HAVE SO FAR DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE
APPROACHED SHORE...AND MOST (BUT NOT ALL) MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 292233
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
635 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH...MAY STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE LAST FRIDAY EVENING OF MAY 2015 WILL END ON
A FINE AND FAIR NOTE...AS DIURNAL CUMULUS VAPORIZES INTO THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR PERCHED ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET AS ASCENDING
PARCEL MOTION SPUTTERS OUT TO INCREASED STRATIFICATION. MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH POTENTIAL EXCEPTIONS INLAND EARLY INTO SATURDAY.
EFFICIENT HEAT ESCAPE AND ASSOCIATED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD
TO GROUND-BASED NEAR SATURATION INTO PRE-DAWN SATURDAY AND POCKETS
OF FOG AND MIST-BANKS MAY UNFOLD. THIS APT TO BE FAVORED INLAND AWAY
FROM THE STIRRING OF SE ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE SEA. MINIMUMS A FEW
NOTCHES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS A LARGE
POTION OF THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER 60S AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN WITH
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS WANTING TO
INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT THIS TIME
WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY MORNING
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS RATHER
SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE WEAK
RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...STEADY AS SHE GOES FOR THE MARINE FORECAST
WHICH HAS REMAINED NEARLY UNCHANGED AND PERSISTENT RECENTLY ASIDE
FROM A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE SWELL PORTION OF THE SPECTRAL
CHARACTER. BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TIED TO LONGER PERIOD
ENERGY OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE CHOP. SEAS COMPRISED OF ESE
WAVES 3-4 FEET AROUND EVERY 9 SECONDS. INSHORE NEAR THE MYRTLES
BOTTOM FRICTION MAY EAT ENOUGH OF THE ENERGY TO DAMPEN SWELL TO 2
FEET...BUT 3 FOOT BREAKERS STILL GOOD BET IN OCCASIONAL PHASES
THERE. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS AND LOCAL INSHORE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARING 80
DEGREES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 291849
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
249 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH...MAY STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE LAST FRIDAY EVENING OF MAY 2015 WILL END ON
A FINE AND FAIR NOTE...AS DIURNAL CUMULUS VAPORIZES INTO THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR PERCHED ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET AS ASCENDING
PARCEL MOTION SPUTTERS OUT TO INCREASED STRATIFICATION. MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH POTENTIAL EXCEPTIONS INLAND EARLY INTO SATURDAY.
EFFICIENT HEAT ESCAPE AND ASSOCIATED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD
TO GROUND-BASED NEAR SATURATION INTO PRE-DAWN SATURDAY AND POCKETS
OF FOG AND MIST-BANKS MAY UNFOLD. THIS APT TO BE FAVORED INLAND AWAY
FROM THE STIRRING OF SE ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE SEA. MINIMUMS A FEW
NOTCHES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS A LARGE
POTION OF THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER 60S AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ESE WINDS 5-10 KT...
EXCEPT 10-15 KT AT KMYR/KCRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT E THIS EVENING.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO /KLBT. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP 14-15Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...STEADY AS SHE GOES FOR THE MARINE FORECAST
WHICH HAS REMAINED NEARLY UNCHANGED AND PERSISTENT RECENTLY ASIDE
FROM A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE SWELL PORTION OF THE SPECTRAL
CHARACTER. BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TIED TO LONGER PERIOD
ENERGY OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE CHOP. SEAS COMPRISED OF ESE
WAVES 3-4 FEET AROUND EVERY 9 SECONDS. INSHORE NEAR THE MYRTLES
BOTTOM FRICTION MAY EAT ENOUGH OF THE ENERGY TO DAMPEN SWELL TO 2
FEET...BUT 3 FOOT BREAKERS STILL GOOD BET IN OCCASIONAL PHASES
THERE. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS AND LOCAL INSHORE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARING 80
DEGREES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 291849
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
249 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH...MAY STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE LAST FRIDAY EVENING OF MAY 2015 WILL END ON
A FINE AND FAIR NOTE...AS DIURNAL CUMULUS VAPORIZES INTO THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR PERCHED ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET AS ASCENDING
PARCEL MOTION SPUTTERS OUT TO INCREASED STRATIFICATION. MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH POTENTIAL EXCEPTIONS INLAND EARLY INTO SATURDAY.
EFFICIENT HEAT ESCAPE AND ASSOCIATED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD
TO GROUND-BASED NEAR SATURATION INTO PRE-DAWN SATURDAY AND POCKETS
OF FOG AND MIST-BANKS MAY UNFOLD. THIS APT TO BE FAVORED INLAND AWAY
FROM THE STIRRING OF SE ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE SEA. MINIMUMS A FEW
NOTCHES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS A LARGE
POTION OF THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER 60S AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ESE WINDS 5-10 KT...
EXCEPT 10-15 KT AT KMYR/KCRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT E THIS EVENING.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO /KLBT. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP 14-15Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...STEADY AS SHE GOES FOR THE MARINE FORECAST
WHICH HAS REMAINED NEARLY UNCHANGED AND PERSISTENT RECENTLY ASIDE
FROM A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE SWELL PORTION OF THE SPECTRAL
CHARACTER. BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TIED TO LONGER PERIOD
ENERGY OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE CHOP. SEAS COMPRISED OF ESE
WAVES 3-4 FEET AROUND EVERY 9 SECONDS. INSHORE NEAR THE MYRTLES
BOTTOM FRICTION MAY EAT ENOUGH OF THE ENERGY TO DAMPEN SWELL TO 2
FEET...BUT 3 FOOT BREAKERS STILL GOOD BET IN OCCASIONAL PHASES
THERE. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS AND LOCAL INSHORE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARING 80
DEGREES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 291726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY H8-H6
AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPTICK
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IS EDGING
LANDWARD ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
ONLY THE FINE TUNING OF T/TD/SKY COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO HOURLY GRIDS...AND FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ESE WINDS 5-10 KT...EXCEPT
10-15 KT AT KMYR/KCRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE INLAND
AND COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT E THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KFLO
/KLBT. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP 14-15Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 291726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY H8-H6
AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPTICK
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IS EDGING
LANDWARD ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
ONLY THE FINE TUNING OF T/TD/SKY COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO HOURLY GRIDS...AND FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ESE WINDS 5-10 KT...EXCEPT
10-15 KT AT KMYR/KCRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE INLAND
AND COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT E THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KFLO
/KLBT. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP 14-15Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 291726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY H8-H6
AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPTICK
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IS EDGING
LANDWARD ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
ONLY THE FINE TUNING OF T/TD/SKY COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO HOURLY GRIDS...AND FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ESE WINDS 5-10 KT...EXCEPT
10-15 KT AT KMYR/KCRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE INLAND
AND COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT E THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KFLO
/KLBT. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP 14-15Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 291555
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1155 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY H8-H6
AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPTICK
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IS EDGING
LANDWARD ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
ONLY THE FINE TUNING OF T/TD/SKY COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO HOURLY GRIDS...AND FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 291439
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 291439
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 291439
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 291439
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 291438
AFDILM
FXUS62 KILM 291350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 291438
AFDILM
FXUS62 KILM 291350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 291438
AFDILM
FXUS62 KILM 291350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 291438
AFDILM
FXUS62 KILM 291350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 291350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 291350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 291132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE. COOLED TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SPC HAS ADDED A GENERAL RISK
FOR TODAY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS
DRY AIR AND AT LEAST WEAK SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HINDER UPDRAFTS FROM
REACHING MUCH ABOVE THE -10C REQUIRED FOR CHARGE SEPARATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3AM FOLLOWS:

AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SIGNIFICANTLY
NE OF THE CAROLINAS IS IMPRESSIVELY MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...AMPLIFIED MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH THAT
RIDGE CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER CREATE
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL NE OF THE AREA...LONG RETURN FLOW
IS MORE E THAN SE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT
PROVIDES LONG RESIDENCE TIME FOR PARCELS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
MOISTURE ONSHORE. HOWEVER...BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THAT THE AIR
MOVING ONSHORE IS ACTUALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
CANADA...WHICH HAVE TRAVERSED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE HIGH BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE US COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TOTAL MOISTURE IS LESS
THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPERIENCED WITH THIS SETUP...AND THESE
DRIER PARCELS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CAP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY. STILL...HIGH RES GUIDANCE AGREES IN
DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND TODAY WITH THE
RESULTANT...AND HAVE INTRODUCED 15-20 POP FOR THE INLAND 2/3 OF THE
CWA. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH...NO LIGHTNING IS
FORECAST...AND MOST COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ANY
ACTIVITY WILL WANE SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

AS FAR AS HIGHS TODAY...HAVE HEDGED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET NUMBERS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED
BETTER AS OF LATE. THE E/SE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 AT THE
BEACHES...AND AS HIGH AS 87/88 IN DARLINGTON/MARLBORO COUNTIES.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO SOME ADVECTION
STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED
E/SE FLOW TO REDUCE NOCTURNAL COOLING. MINS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 65
WELL INLAND...TO ONLY ABOUT 70 FOR THE COAST. THESE ARE ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS MORNING
UPDATE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-3 FT WITH AN 8 SEC
DOMINANT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3AM FOLLOWS:

AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NE OF THE
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PRODUCES
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS WAVERING ONLY SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
E AND SE AT AROUND 10 KTS. CURRENT SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BUILD ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY...MORE DUE TO AN INCREASING E/SE SWELL THAN ANY WIND-
WAVE CONTRIBUTION. DOMINANT PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 9 SEC...WITH THE SWELL AMPLITUDE BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-4 FT...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR
SHORE WHERE MORE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE FELT ON THIS LONGER PERIOD
WAVE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE LONG. SMALL WIND
WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A 3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A
SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 291132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE. COOLED TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SPC HAS ADDED A GENERAL RISK
FOR TODAY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS
DRY AIR AND AT LEAST WEAK SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HINDER UPDRAFTS FROM
REACHING MUCH ABOVE THE -10C REQUIRED FOR CHARGE SEPARATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3AM FOLLOWS:

AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SIGNIFICANTLY
NE OF THE CAROLINAS IS IMPRESSIVELY MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...AMPLIFIED MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH THAT
RIDGE CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER CREATE
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL NE OF THE AREA...LONG RETURN FLOW
IS MORE E THAN SE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT
PROVIDES LONG RESIDENCE TIME FOR PARCELS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
MOISTURE ONSHORE. HOWEVER...BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THAT THE AIR
MOVING ONSHORE IS ACTUALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
CANADA...WHICH HAVE TRAVERSED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE HIGH BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE US COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TOTAL MOISTURE IS LESS
THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPERIENCED WITH THIS SETUP...AND THESE
DRIER PARCELS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CAP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY. STILL...HIGH RES GUIDANCE AGREES IN
DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND TODAY WITH THE
RESULTANT...AND HAVE INTRODUCED 15-20 POP FOR THE INLAND 2/3 OF THE
CWA. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH...NO LIGHTNING IS
FORECAST...AND MOST COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ANY
ACTIVITY WILL WANE SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

AS FAR AS HIGHS TODAY...HAVE HEDGED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET NUMBERS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED
BETTER AS OF LATE. THE E/SE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 AT THE
BEACHES...AND AS HIGH AS 87/88 IN DARLINGTON/MARLBORO COUNTIES.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO SOME ADVECTION
STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED
E/SE FLOW TO REDUCE NOCTURNAL COOLING. MINS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 65
WELL INLAND...TO ONLY ABOUT 70 FOR THE COAST. THESE ARE ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS MORNING
UPDATE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-3 FT WITH AN 8 SEC
DOMINANT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3AM FOLLOWS:

AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NE OF THE
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PRODUCES
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS WAVERING ONLY SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
E AND SE AT AROUND 10 KTS. CURRENT SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BUILD ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY...MORE DUE TO AN INCREASING E/SE SWELL THAN ANY WIND-
WAVE CONTRIBUTION. DOMINANT PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 9 SEC...WITH THE SWELL AMPLITUDE BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-4 FT...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR
SHORE WHERE MORE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE FELT ON THIS LONGER PERIOD
WAVE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE LONG. SMALL WIND
WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A 3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A
SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 291132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE. COOLED TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SPC HAS ADDED A GENERAL RISK
FOR TODAY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS
DRY AIR AND AT LEAST WEAK SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HINDER UPDRAFTS FROM
REACHING MUCH ABOVE THE -10C REQUIRED FOR CHARGE SEPARATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3AM FOLLOWS:

AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SIGNIFICANTLY
NE OF THE CAROLINAS IS IMPRESSIVELY MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...AMPLIFIED MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH THAT
RIDGE CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER CREATE
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL NE OF THE AREA...LONG RETURN FLOW
IS MORE E THAN SE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT
PROVIDES LONG RESIDENCE TIME FOR PARCELS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
MOISTURE ONSHORE. HOWEVER...BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THAT THE AIR
MOVING ONSHORE IS ACTUALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
CANADA...WHICH HAVE TRAVERSED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE HIGH BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE US COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TOTAL MOISTURE IS LESS
THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPERIENCED WITH THIS SETUP...AND THESE
DRIER PARCELS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CAP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY. STILL...HIGH RES GUIDANCE AGREES IN
DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND TODAY WITH THE
RESULTANT...AND HAVE INTRODUCED 15-20 POP FOR THE INLAND 2/3 OF THE
CWA. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH...NO LIGHTNING IS
FORECAST...AND MOST COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ANY
ACTIVITY WILL WANE SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

AS FAR AS HIGHS TODAY...HAVE HEDGED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET NUMBERS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED
BETTER AS OF LATE. THE E/SE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 AT THE
BEACHES...AND AS HIGH AS 87/88 IN DARLINGTON/MARLBORO COUNTIES.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO SOME ADVECTION
STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED
E/SE FLOW TO REDUCE NOCTURNAL COOLING. MINS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 65
WELL INLAND...TO ONLY ABOUT 70 FOR THE COAST. THESE ARE ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS MORNING
UPDATE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-3 FT WITH AN 8 SEC
DOMINANT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3AM FOLLOWS:

AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NE OF THE
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PRODUCES
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS WAVERING ONLY SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
E AND SE AT AROUND 10 KTS. CURRENT SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BUILD ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY...MORE DUE TO AN INCREASING E/SE SWELL THAN ANY WIND-
WAVE CONTRIBUTION. DOMINANT PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 9 SEC...WITH THE SWELL AMPLITUDE BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-4 FT...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR
SHORE WHERE MORE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE FELT ON THIS LONGER PERIOD
WAVE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE LONG. SMALL WIND
WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A 3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A
SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 290728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SIGNIFICANTLY
NE OF THE CAROLINAS IS IMPRESSIVELY MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...AMPLIFIED MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH THAT
RIDGE CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER CREATE
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL NE OF THE AREA...LONG RETURN FLOW
IS MORE E THAN SE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT
PROVIDES LONG RESIDENCE TIME FOR PARCELS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
MOISTURE ONSHORE. HOWEVER...BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THAT THE AIR
MOVING ONSHORE IS ACTUALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
CANADA...WHICH HAVE TRAVERSED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE HIGH BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE US COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TOTAL MOISTURE IS LESS
THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPERIENCED WITH THIS SETUP...AND THESE
DRIER PARCELS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CAP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY. STILL...HIGH RES GUIDANCE AGREES IN
DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND TODAY WITH THE
RESULTANT...AND HAVE INTRODUCED 15-20 POP FOR THE INLAND 2/3 OF THE
CWA. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH...NO LIGHTNING IS
FORECAST...AND MOST COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ANY
ACTIVITY WILL WANE SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

AS FAR AS HIGHS TODAY...HAVE HEDGED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET NUMBERS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED
BETTER AS OF LATE. THE E/SE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 AT THE
BEACHES...AND AS HIGH AS 87/88 IN DARLINGTON/MARLBORO COUNTIES.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO SOME ADVECTION
STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED
E/SE FLOW TO REDUCE NOCTURNAL COOLING. MINS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 65
WELL INLAND...TO ONLY ABOUT 70 FOR THE COAST. THESE ARE ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THINGS HAVE
STABILIZED. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED AS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED AND CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED TEMPO MVFR AT CRE AND LBT
FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND FORECAST MINS NEAR AFTN CROSSOVER DEWPOINTS,
RESPECTIVELY. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED
TONIGHT. VFR FORECAST AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS AND ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...FAVORED AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS
HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER
DARK WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NE OF THE
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PRODUCES
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS WAVERING ONLY SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
E AND SE AT AROUND 10 KTS. CURRENT SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BUILD ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY...MORE DUE TO AN INCREASING E/SE SWELL THAN ANY WIND-
WAVE CONTRIBUTION. DOMINANT PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 9 SEC...WITH THE SWELL AMPLITUDE BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-4 FT...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR
SHORE WHERE MORE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE FELT ON THIS LONGER PERIOD
WAVE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...  A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE LONG. SMALL WIND
WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A 3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A
SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 290728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SIGNIFICANTLY
NE OF THE CAROLINAS IS IMPRESSIVELY MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...AMPLIFIED MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH THAT
RIDGE CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER CREATE
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL NE OF THE AREA...LONG RETURN FLOW
IS MORE E THAN SE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT
PROVIDES LONG RESIDENCE TIME FOR PARCELS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
MOISTURE ONSHORE. HOWEVER...BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THAT THE AIR
MOVING ONSHORE IS ACTUALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
CANADA...WHICH HAVE TRAVERSED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE HIGH BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE US COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TOTAL MOISTURE IS LESS
THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPERIENCED WITH THIS SETUP...AND THESE
DRIER PARCELS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CAP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY. STILL...HIGH RES GUIDANCE AGREES IN
DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND TODAY WITH THE
RESULTANT...AND HAVE INTRODUCED 15-20 POP FOR THE INLAND 2/3 OF THE
CWA. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH...NO LIGHTNING IS
FORECAST...AND MOST COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ANY
ACTIVITY WILL WANE SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

AS FAR AS HIGHS TODAY...HAVE HEDGED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET NUMBERS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED
BETTER AS OF LATE. THE E/SE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 AT THE
BEACHES...AND AS HIGH AS 87/88 IN DARLINGTON/MARLBORO COUNTIES.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO SOME ADVECTION
STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED
E/SE FLOW TO REDUCE NOCTURNAL COOLING. MINS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 65
WELL INLAND...TO ONLY ABOUT 70 FOR THE COAST. THESE ARE ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THINGS HAVE
STABILIZED. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED AS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED AND CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED TEMPO MVFR AT CRE AND LBT
FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND FORECAST MINS NEAR AFTN CROSSOVER DEWPOINTS,
RESPECTIVELY. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED
TONIGHT. VFR FORECAST AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS AND ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...FAVORED AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS
HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER
DARK WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NE OF THE
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PRODUCES
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS WAVERING ONLY SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
E AND SE AT AROUND 10 KTS. CURRENT SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BUILD ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY...MORE DUE TO AN INCREASING E/SE SWELL THAN ANY WIND-
WAVE CONTRIBUTION. DOMINANT PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 9 SEC...WITH THE SWELL AMPLITUDE BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-4 FT...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR
SHORE WHERE MORE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE FELT ON THIS LONGER PERIOD
WAVE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...  A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE LONG. SMALL WIND
WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A 3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A
SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 290728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SIGNIFICANTLY
NE OF THE CAROLINAS IS IMPRESSIVELY MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...AMPLIFIED MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH THAT
RIDGE CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER CREATE
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL NE OF THE AREA...LONG RETURN FLOW
IS MORE E THAN SE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT
PROVIDES LONG RESIDENCE TIME FOR PARCELS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
MOISTURE ONSHORE. HOWEVER...BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THAT THE AIR
MOVING ONSHORE IS ACTUALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
CANADA...WHICH HAVE TRAVERSED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE HIGH BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE US COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TOTAL MOISTURE IS LESS
THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPERIENCED WITH THIS SETUP...AND THESE
DRIER PARCELS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CAP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY. STILL...HIGH RES GUIDANCE AGREES IN
DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND TODAY WITH THE
RESULTANT...AND HAVE INTRODUCED 15-20 POP FOR THE INLAND 2/3 OF THE
CWA. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH...NO LIGHTNING IS
FORECAST...AND MOST COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ANY
ACTIVITY WILL WANE SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

AS FAR AS HIGHS TODAY...HAVE HEDGED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET NUMBERS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED
BETTER AS OF LATE. THE E/SE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 AT THE
BEACHES...AND AS HIGH AS 87/88 IN DARLINGTON/MARLBORO COUNTIES.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO SOME ADVECTION
STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED
E/SE FLOW TO REDUCE NOCTURNAL COOLING. MINS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 65
WELL INLAND...TO ONLY ABOUT 70 FOR THE COAST. THESE ARE ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THINGS HAVE
STABILIZED. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED AS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED AND CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED TEMPO MVFR AT CRE AND LBT
FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND FORECAST MINS NEAR AFTN CROSSOVER DEWPOINTS,
RESPECTIVELY. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED
TONIGHT. VFR FORECAST AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS AND ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...FAVORED AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS
HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER
DARK WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NE OF THE
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PRODUCES
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS WAVERING ONLY SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
E AND SE AT AROUND 10 KTS. CURRENT SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BUILD ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY...MORE DUE TO AN INCREASING E/SE SWELL THAN ANY WIND-
WAVE CONTRIBUTION. DOMINANT PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 9 SEC...WITH THE SWELL AMPLITUDE BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-4 FT...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR
SHORE WHERE MORE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE FELT ON THIS LONGER PERIOD
WAVE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...  A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE LONG. SMALL WIND
WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A 3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A
SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 290524
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MAY IMPINGE
ON OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 SHORTLY. SKY COVER
SHOULD STILL AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN 20-30 PERCENT HERE...AND 10
PERCENT OR AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM WERE 1-2 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT I
EXPECT TO STILL SEE FORECAST LOWS WORK OUT FINE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE ON THIS UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST
DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT
WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THINGS HAVE
STABILIZED. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED AS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED AND CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED TEMPO MVFR AT CRE AND LBT
FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND FORECAST MINS NEAR AFTN CROSSOVER DEWPOINTS,
RESPECTIVELY. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED
TONIGHT. VFR FORECAST AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS AND ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...FAVORED AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS
HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER
DARK WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...BUOY AND PIER OBS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL
WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED... ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND
10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA/JDW
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 290524
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MAY IMPINGE
ON OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 SHORTLY. SKY COVER
SHOULD STILL AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN 20-30 PERCENT HERE...AND 10
PERCENT OR AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM WERE 1-2 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT I
EXPECT TO STILL SEE FORECAST LOWS WORK OUT FINE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE ON THIS UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST
DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT
WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THINGS HAVE
STABILIZED. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED AS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED AND CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED TEMPO MVFR AT CRE AND LBT
FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND FORECAST MINS NEAR AFTN CROSSOVER DEWPOINTS,
RESPECTIVELY. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED
TONIGHT. VFR FORECAST AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS AND ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...FAVORED AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS
HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER
DARK WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...BUOY AND PIER OBS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL
WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED... ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND
10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA/JDW
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 290228
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MAY IMPINGE
ON OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 SHORTLY. SKY COVER
SHOULD STILL AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN 20-30 PERCENT HERE...AND 10
PERCENT OR AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM WERE 1-2 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT I
EXPECT TO STILL SEE FORECAST LOWS WORK OUT FINE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE ON THIS UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST
DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT
WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...BUOY AND PIER OBS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL
WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED... ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND
10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 290228
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MAY IMPINGE
ON OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 SHORTLY. SKY COVER
SHOULD STILL AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN 20-30 PERCENT HERE...AND 10
PERCENT OR AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM WERE 1-2 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT I
EXPECT TO STILL SEE FORECAST LOWS WORK OUT FINE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE ON THIS UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST
DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT
WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...BUOY AND PIER OBS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL
WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED... ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND
10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 290228
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MAY IMPINGE
ON OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 SHORTLY. SKY COVER
SHOULD STILL AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN 20-30 PERCENT HERE...AND 10
PERCENT OR AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM WERE 1-2 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT I
EXPECT TO STILL SEE FORECAST LOWS WORK OUT FINE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE ON THIS UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST
DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT
WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...BUOY AND PIER OBS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL
WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED... ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND
10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 282339
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS
LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A
STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED...
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 282339
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS
LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A
STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED...
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 282332
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS
LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A
STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED...
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 282332
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS
LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A
STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED...
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 282230
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 282230
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43





000
FXUS62 KILM 282048
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 282048
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 282048
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 281930
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 281930
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 281930
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 281930
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 281728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
128 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 281728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
128 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 281728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
128 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 281728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
128 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 281637
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 281637
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 281637
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 281636
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB/SRP
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KILM 281636
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB/SRP
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KILM 281350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...
A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LANDWARD
MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HOWEVER IS EXPECTED
OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING
FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST
MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W
OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC
OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER
TEMPS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 281350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...
A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LANDWARD
MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HOWEVER IS EXPECTED
OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING
FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST
MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W
OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC
OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER
TEMPS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 281350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...
A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LANDWARD
MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HOWEVER IS EXPECTED
OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING
FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST
MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W
OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC
OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER
TEMPS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 281350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...
A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LANDWARD
MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HOWEVER IS EXPECTED
OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING
FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST
MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W
OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC
OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER
TEMPS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 281348
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALONG ACROSS
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC
UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC
TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC
WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FATHER INLAND.
THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE
CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR
AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER
BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR
AND UPPER 80S DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 281348
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALONG ACROSS
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC
UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC
TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC
WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FATHER INLAND.
THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE
CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR
AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER
BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR
AND UPPER 80S DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 281348
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALONG ACROSS
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC
UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC
TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC
WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FATHER INLAND.
THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE
CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR
AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER
BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR
AND UPPER 80S DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 281348
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALONG ACROSS
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC
UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC
TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC
WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FATHER INLAND.
THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE
CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR
AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER
BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR
AND UPPER 80S DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 281144
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
744 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE REMAINS TOO WEAK TO IMPORT MUCH MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A COLD FRONT MAY SAG INTO THE AREA NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...A SLIGHT WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW
LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND EAST OF FLORIDA...WILL PUSH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...LOCATED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS...WESTWARD. ITS
NEW POSITION WILL NEARLY BE OVERHEAD COME FRIDAY MORNING. A DEEPER
LOW TO MID LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME APPARENT BY TONIGHT AS
WITNESSED BY THE LATEST AND VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE ILM CWA.

EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNSET BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE MARINE INFLUENCES FROM A
DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOT SUITABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP. IE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE WILL BE LESS THAN
1000 J/KG...WHEREAS INLAND LOOKING AT 2000-3000 J/KG.
OVERALL...WILL INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS INLAND. THE RESULTANT WIND
BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND THIS AFTN/EVE.
IT COULD BECOME A FOCUS TO BRIEFLY AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. BUT ONCE THIS BOUNDARY PASSES BY...ANY LEFTOVER
CONVECTION BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY QUICKLY DISSIPATE. AS
FOR THE MAX AND MIN FORECAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT A DEGREE OR 2 ON
EITHER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...SFC RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE HIGHS
CENTER LOCATED OVER THE HIGH SEAS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE
ACTUAL SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THIS PERIOD...AND
WILL EXTEND INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS NC. THIS POSITIONING
WILL RESULT IN WINDS BACKING FROM SOUTHERLY TO ESE-SE. A SLIGHTLY
RELAXED SFC PG WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT...OR 10-15
KT AT THEIR PEAK ESPECIALLY AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE RIGHT AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3
FT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A
BUILDING TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3
AND LOCALLY RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH.
COULD SEE 4 FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR. PERIODS WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE
CONSIDERED A SWELL RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING FROM THE
INLAND PROGRESSING RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB/SRP
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 281037
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE REMAINS TOO WEAK TO IMPORT MUCH MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A COLD FRONT MAY SAG INTO THE AREA NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...A SLIGHT WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW
LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND EAST OF FLORIDA...WILL PUSH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...LOCATED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS...WESTWARD. ITS
NEW POSITION WILL NEARLY BE OVERHEAD COME FRIDAY MORNING. A DEEPER
LOW TO MID LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME APPARENT BY TONIGHT AS
WITNESSED BY THE LATEST AND VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE ILM CWA.

EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNSET BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE MARINE INFLUENCES FROM A
DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOT SUITABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP. IE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE WILL BE LESS THAN
1000 J/KG...WHEREAS INLAND LOOKING AT 2000-3000 J/KG.
OVERALL...WILL INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS INLAND. THE RESULTANT WIND
BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND THIS AFTN/EVE.
IT COULD BECOME A FOCUS TO BRIEFLY AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. BUT ONCE THIS BOUNDARY PASSES BY...ANY LEFTOVER
CONVECTION BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY QUICKLY DISSIPATE. AS
FOR THE MAX AND MIN FORECAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT A DEGREE OR 2 ON
EITHER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY FROM FOG AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD WITH VCNTY THUNDER ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.

AS VFR PREVAILS...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
INLAND...LEAVING THIN HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING. EXPECT AREAS OF
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL. AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER
DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. COULD SEE CU
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALL AREAS...AND FURTHER DEVELOP TO
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS.
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE PROTECTED FROM MARINE INFLUENCES AND THE
UPPER RIDGING...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. AFTER
SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY LEAVING DISSIPATING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU 06Z.

WINDS WILL START OUT FROM SSE-SSW AT 4 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT INLAND
WHERE CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFTER DAYBREAK...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS. AN ACTIVE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
COAST...SE AROUND 10 KT ELSEWHERE. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH BY 06Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...SFC RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE HIGHS
CENTER LOCATED OVER THE HIGH SEAS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE
ACTUAL SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THIS PERIOD...AND
WILL EXTEND INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS NC. THIS POSITIONING
WILL RESULT IN WINDS BACKING FROM SOUTHERLY TO ESE-SE. A SLIGHTLY
RELAXED SFC PG WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT...OR 10-15
KT AT THEIR PEAK ESPECIALLY AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE RIGHT AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3
FT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A
BUILDING TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3
AND LOCALLY RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH.
COULD SEE 4 FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR. PERIODS WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE
CONSIDERED A SWELL RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING FROM THE
INLAND PROGRESSING RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB/SRP
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 281037
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE REMAINS TOO WEAK TO IMPORT MUCH MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A COLD FRONT MAY SAG INTO THE AREA NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...A SLIGHT WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW
LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND EAST OF FLORIDA...WILL PUSH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...LOCATED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS...WESTWARD. ITS
NEW POSITION WILL NEARLY BE OVERHEAD COME FRIDAY MORNING. A DEEPER
LOW TO MID LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME APPARENT BY TONIGHT AS
WITNESSED BY THE LATEST AND VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE ILM CWA.

EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNSET BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE MARINE INFLUENCES FROM A
DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOT SUITABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP. IE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE WILL BE LESS THAN
1000 J/KG...WHEREAS INLAND LOOKING AT 2000-3000 J/KG.
OVERALL...WILL INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS INLAND. THE RESULTANT WIND
BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND THIS AFTN/EVE.
IT COULD BECOME A FOCUS TO BRIEFLY AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. BUT ONCE THIS BOUNDARY PASSES BY...ANY LEFTOVER
CONVECTION BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY QUICKLY DISSIPATE. AS
FOR THE MAX AND MIN FORECAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT A DEGREE OR 2 ON
EITHER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY FROM FOG AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD WITH VCNTY THUNDER ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.

AS VFR PREVAILS...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
INLAND...LEAVING THIN HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING. EXPECT AREAS OF
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL. AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER
DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. COULD SEE CU
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALL AREAS...AND FURTHER DEVELOP TO
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS.
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE PROTECTED FROM MARINE INFLUENCES AND THE
UPPER RIDGING...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. AFTER
SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY LEAVING DISSIPATING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU 06Z.

WINDS WILL START OUT FROM SSE-SSW AT 4 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT INLAND
WHERE CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFTER DAYBREAK...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS. AN ACTIVE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
COAST...SE AROUND 10 KT ELSEWHERE. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH BY 06Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...SFC RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE HIGHS
CENTER LOCATED OVER THE HIGH SEAS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE
ACTUAL SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THIS PERIOD...AND
WILL EXTEND INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS NC. THIS POSITIONING
WILL RESULT IN WINDS BACKING FROM SOUTHERLY TO ESE-SE. A SLIGHTLY
RELAXED SFC PG WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT...OR 10-15
KT AT THEIR PEAK ESPECIALLY AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE RIGHT AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3
FT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A
BUILDING TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3
AND LOCALLY RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH.
COULD SEE 4 FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR. PERIODS WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE
CONSIDERED A SWELL RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING FROM THE
INLAND PROGRESSING RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB/SRP
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 281037
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE REMAINS TOO WEAK TO IMPORT MUCH MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A COLD FRONT MAY SAG INTO THE AREA NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...A SLIGHT WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW
LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND EAST OF FLORIDA...WILL PUSH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...LOCATED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS...WESTWARD. ITS
NEW POSITION WILL NEARLY BE OVERHEAD COME FRIDAY MORNING. A DEEPER
LOW TO MID LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME APPARENT BY TONIGHT AS
WITNESSED BY THE LATEST AND VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE ILM CWA.

EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNSET BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE MARINE INFLUENCES FROM A
DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOT SUITABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP. IE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE WILL BE LESS THAN
1000 J/KG...WHEREAS INLAND LOOKING AT 2000-3000 J/KG.
OVERALL...WILL INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS INLAND. THE RESULTANT WIND
BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND THIS AFTN/EVE.
IT COULD BECOME A FOCUS TO BRIEFLY AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. BUT ONCE THIS BOUNDARY PASSES BY...ANY LEFTOVER
CONVECTION BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY QUICKLY DISSIPATE. AS
FOR THE MAX AND MIN FORECAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT A DEGREE OR 2 ON
EITHER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY FROM FOG AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD WITH VCNTY THUNDER ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.

AS VFR PREVAILS...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
INLAND...LEAVING THIN HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING. EXPECT AREAS OF
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL. AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER
DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. COULD SEE CU
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALL AREAS...AND FURTHER DEVELOP TO
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS.
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE PROTECTED FROM MARINE INFLUENCES AND THE
UPPER RIDGING...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. AFTER
SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY LEAVING DISSIPATING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU 06Z.

WINDS WILL START OUT FROM SSE-SSW AT 4 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT INLAND
WHERE CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFTER DAYBREAK...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS. AN ACTIVE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
COAST...SE AROUND 10 KT ELSEWHERE. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH BY 06Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...SFC RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE HIGHS
CENTER LOCATED OVER THE HIGH SEAS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE
ACTUAL SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THIS PERIOD...AND
WILL EXTEND INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS NC. THIS POSITIONING
WILL RESULT IN WINDS BACKING FROM SOUTHERLY TO ESE-SE. A SLIGHTLY
RELAXED SFC PG WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT...OR 10-15
KT AT THEIR PEAK ESPECIALLY AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE RIGHT AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3
FT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A
BUILDING TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3
AND LOCALLY RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH.
COULD SEE 4 FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR. PERIODS WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE
CONSIDERED A SWELL RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING FROM THE
INLAND PROGRESSING RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB/SRP
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 281037
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE REMAINS TOO WEAK TO IMPORT MUCH MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A COLD FRONT MAY SAG INTO THE AREA NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...A SLIGHT WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW
LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND EAST OF FLORIDA...WILL PUSH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...LOCATED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS...WESTWARD. ITS
NEW POSITION WILL NEARLY BE OVERHEAD COME FRIDAY MORNING. A DEEPER
LOW TO MID LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME APPARENT BY TONIGHT AS
WITNESSED BY THE LATEST AND VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE ILM CWA.

EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNSET BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE MARINE INFLUENCES FROM A
DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOT SUITABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP. IE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE WILL BE LESS THAN
1000 J/KG...WHEREAS INLAND LOOKING AT 2000-3000 J/KG.
OVERALL...WILL INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS INLAND. THE RESULTANT WIND
BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND THIS AFTN/EVE.
IT COULD BECOME A FOCUS TO BRIEFLY AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. BUT ONCE THIS BOUNDARY PASSES BY...ANY LEFTOVER
CONVECTION BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY QUICKLY DISSIPATE. AS
FOR THE MAX AND MIN FORECAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT A DEGREE OR 2 ON
EITHER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY FROM FOG AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD WITH VCNTY THUNDER ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.

AS VFR PREVAILS...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
INLAND...LEAVING THIN HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING. EXPECT AREAS OF
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL. AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER
DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. COULD SEE CU
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALL AREAS...AND FURTHER DEVELOP TO
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS.
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE PROTECTED FROM MARINE INFLUENCES AND THE
UPPER RIDGING...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. AFTER
SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY LEAVING DISSIPATING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU 06Z.

WINDS WILL START OUT FROM SSE-SSW AT 4 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT INLAND
WHERE CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFTER DAYBREAK...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS. AN ACTIVE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
COAST...SE AROUND 10 KT ELSEWHERE. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH BY 06Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...SFC RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE HIGHS
CENTER LOCATED OVER THE HIGH SEAS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE
ACTUAL SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THIS PERIOD...AND
WILL EXTEND INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS NC. THIS POSITIONING
WILL RESULT IN WINDS BACKING FROM SOUTHERLY TO ESE-SE. A SLIGHTLY
RELAXED SFC PG WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT...OR 10-15
KT AT THEIR PEAK ESPECIALLY AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE RIGHT AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3
FT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A
BUILDING TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3
AND LOCALLY RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH.
COULD SEE 4 FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR. PERIODS WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE
CONSIDERED A SWELL RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING FROM THE
INLAND PROGRESSING RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB/SRP
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 280702
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE REMAINS TOO WEAK TO IMPORT MUCH MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A COLD FRONT MAY SAG INTO THE AREA NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A SLIGHT WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW
LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND EAST OF FLORIDA...WILL PUSH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...LOCATED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS...WESTWARD. ITS
NEW POSITION WILL NEARLY BE OVERHEAD COME FRIDAY MORNING. A DEEPER
LOW TO MID LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME APPARENT BY TONIGHT AS
WITNESSED BY THE LATEST AND VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE ILM CWA.

EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNSET BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE MARINE INFLUENCES FROM A
DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY...WILL RESULT IN
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOT SUITABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP. IE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE WILL BE LESS THAN 1000
J/KG...WHEREAS INLAND LOOKING AT 2000-3000 J/KG. OVERALL...WILL
INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS INLAND. THE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND THIS AFTN/EVE. IT COULD
BECOME A FOCUS TO BRIEFLY AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. BUT
ONCE THIS BOUNDARY PASSES BY...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY QUICKLY DISSIPATE. AS FOR THE MAX AND MIN
FORECAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT A DEGREE OR 2 ON EITHER SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY.



&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY FROM FOG AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD WITH VCNTY THUNDER ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.

AS VFR PREVAILS...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
INLAND...LEAVING THIN HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING. EXPECT AREAS OF
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL. AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER
DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. COULD SEE CU
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALL AREAS...AND FURTHER DEVELOP TO
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS.
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE PROTECTED FROM MARINE INFLUENCES AND THE
UPPER RIDGING...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. AFTER
SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY LEAVING DISSIPATING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU 06Z.

WINDS WILL START OUT FROM SSE-SSW AT 4 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT INLAND
WHERE CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFTER DAYBREAK...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS. AN ACTIVE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
COAST...SE AROUND 10 KT ELSEWHERE. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH BY 06Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SFC RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE HIGHS CENTER
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH SEAS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE ACTUAL SFC RIDGE
AXIS LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THIS PERIOD...AND WILL EXTEND INLAND
FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS NC. THIS POSITIONING WILL RESULT IN WINDS
BACKING FROM SOUTHERLY TO ESE-SE. A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG WILL
RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT...OR 10-15 KT AT THEIR PEAK
ESPECIALLY AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE RESULTANT WIND
BOUNDARY THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE RIGHT
AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR
TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING TREND TO SIGNIFICANT
SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO
THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4 FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI
ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9
SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL RATHER THAN JUST WIND
DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING FROM THE INLAND PROGRESSING RESULTANT WIND
BOUNDARY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 280702
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE REMAINS TOO WEAK TO IMPORT MUCH MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A COLD FRONT MAY SAG INTO THE AREA NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A SLIGHT WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW
LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND EAST OF FLORIDA...WILL PUSH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...LOCATED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS...WESTWARD. ITS
NEW POSITION WILL NEARLY BE OVERHEAD COME FRIDAY MORNING. A DEEPER
LOW TO MID LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME APPARENT BY TONIGHT AS
WITNESSED BY THE LATEST AND VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE ILM CWA.

EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNSET BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE MARINE INFLUENCES FROM A
DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY...WILL RESULT IN
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOT SUITABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP. IE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE WILL BE LESS THAN 1000
J/KG...WHEREAS INLAND LOOKING AT 2000-3000 J/KG. OVERALL...WILL
INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS INLAND. THE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND THIS AFTN/EVE. IT COULD
BECOME A FOCUS TO BRIEFLY AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. BUT
ONCE THIS BOUNDARY PASSES BY...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY QUICKLY DISSIPATE. AS FOR THE MAX AND MIN
FORECAST...WILL BE LOOKING AT A DEGREE OR 2 ON EITHER SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY.



&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY FROM FOG AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD WITH VCNTY THUNDER ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.

AS VFR PREVAILS...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
INLAND...LEAVING THIN HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING. EXPECT AREAS OF
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL. AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER
DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. COULD SEE CU
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALL AREAS...AND FURTHER DEVELOP TO
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS.
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE PROTECTED FROM MARINE INFLUENCES AND THE
UPPER RIDGING...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. AFTER
SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY LEAVING DISSIPATING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU 06Z.

WINDS WILL START OUT FROM SSE-SSW AT 4 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT INLAND
WHERE CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFTER DAYBREAK...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS. AN ACTIVE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
COAST...SE AROUND 10 KT ELSEWHERE. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH BY 06Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SFC RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE HIGHS CENTER
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH SEAS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE ACTUAL SFC RIDGE
AXIS LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THIS PERIOD...AND WILL EXTEND INLAND
FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS NC. THIS POSITIONING WILL RESULT IN WINDS
BACKING FROM SOUTHERLY TO ESE-SE. A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG WILL
RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT...OR 10-15 KT AT THEIR PEAK
ESPECIALLY AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE RESULTANT WIND
BOUNDARY THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE RIGHT
AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR
TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING TREND TO SIGNIFICANT
SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO
THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4 FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI
ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9
SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL RATHER THAN JUST WIND
DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING FROM THE INLAND PROGRESSING RESULTANT WIND
BOUNDARY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 280555
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
155 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WHERE THE PRECIPITATION FELL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE A QUITE NIGHT IN STORE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO NEAR
70 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRI AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EACH DAY THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY FROM FOG AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD WITH VCNTY THUNDER ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.

AS VFR PREVAILS...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
INLAND...LEAVING THIN HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING. EXPECT AREAS OF
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL. AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER
DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. COULD SEE CU
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALL AREAS...AND FURTHER DEVELOP TO
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS.
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE PROTECTED FROM MARINE INFLUENCES AND THE
UPPER RIDGING...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. AFTER
SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY LEAVING DISSIPATING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU 06Z.

WINDS WILL START OUT FROM SSE-SSW AT 4 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT INLAND
WHERE CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFTER DAYBREAK...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS. AN ACTIVE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
COAST...SE AROUND 10 KT ELSEWHERE. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH BY 06Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST
WATERS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING AT 3
FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. NO CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 280555
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
155 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WHERE THE PRECIPITATION FELL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE A QUITE NIGHT IN STORE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO NEAR
70 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRI AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EACH DAY THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY FROM FOG AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD WITH VCNTY THUNDER ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.

AS VFR PREVAILS...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
INLAND...LEAVING THIN HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING. EXPECT AREAS OF
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL. AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER
DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. COULD SEE CU
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALL AREAS...AND FURTHER DEVELOP TO
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS.
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE PROTECTED FROM MARINE INFLUENCES AND THE
UPPER RIDGING...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. AFTER
SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY LEAVING DISSIPATING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU 06Z.

WINDS WILL START OUT FROM SSE-SSW AT 4 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT INLAND
WHERE CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFTER DAYBREAK...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS. AN ACTIVE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
COAST...SE AROUND 10 KT ELSEWHERE. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH BY 06Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST
WATERS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING AT 3
FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. NO CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 280555
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
155 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WHERE THE PRECIPITATION FELL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE A QUITE NIGHT IN STORE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO NEAR
70 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRI AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EACH DAY THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY FROM FOG AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD WITH VCNTY THUNDER ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.

AS VFR PREVAILS...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
INLAND...LEAVING THIN HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING. EXPECT AREAS OF
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL. AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER
DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. COULD SEE CU
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALL AREAS...AND FURTHER DEVELOP TO
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS.
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE PROTECTED FROM MARINE INFLUENCES AND THE
UPPER RIDGING...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. AFTER
SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY LEAVING DISSIPATING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU 06Z.

WINDS WILL START OUT FROM SSE-SSW AT 4 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT INLAND
WHERE CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFTER DAYBREAK...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS. AN ACTIVE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
COAST...SE AROUND 10 KT ELSEWHERE. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH BY 06Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST
WATERS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING AT 3
FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. NO CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 280555
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
155 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WHERE THE PRECIPITATION FELL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE A QUITE NIGHT IN STORE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO NEAR
70 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRI AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EACH DAY THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY FROM FOG AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD WITH VCNTY THUNDER ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.

AS VFR PREVAILS...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
INLAND...LEAVING THIN HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING. EXPECT AREAS OF
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL. AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER
DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. COULD SEE CU
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALL AREAS...AND FURTHER DEVELOP TO
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS.
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE PROTECTED FROM MARINE INFLUENCES AND THE
UPPER RIDGING...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. AFTER
SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY LEAVING DISSIPATING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU 06Z.

WINDS WILL START OUT FROM SSE-SSW AT 4 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT INLAND
WHERE CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFTER DAYBREAK...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS. AN ACTIVE
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
COAST...SE AROUND 10 KT ELSEWHERE. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH BY 06Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST
WATERS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING AT 3
FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. NO CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 280243
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1043 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WHERE THE PRECIPITATION FELL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE A QUITE NIGHT IN STORE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO NEAR
70 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRI AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EACH DAY THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA.

WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET ALONG THE COAST...LATEST RADAR DEPICTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND SLOWLY DECREASING IN STRENGTH...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER KLBT/KFLO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ANY
SHOWER THAT PASSES OVER EITHER TERMINAL COULD CREATE BRIEF
MVFR...BUT OVERALL ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER.AREAS OF GROUND FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL. AS FOR COASTAL SITES...WILL CONTINUE TEMPO MVFR FOR NOW.
ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING AOB 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST
WATERS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING AT 3
FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. NO CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KILM 280243
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1043 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WHERE THE PRECIPITATION FELL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE A QUITE NIGHT IN STORE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO NEAR
70 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRI AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EACH DAY THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA.

WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET ALONG THE COAST...LATEST RADAR DEPICTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND SLOWLY DECREASING IN STRENGTH...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER KLBT/KFLO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ANY
SHOWER THAT PASSES OVER EITHER TERMINAL COULD CREATE BRIEF
MVFR...BUT OVERALL ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER.AREAS OF GROUND FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL. AS FOR COASTAL SITES...WILL CONTINUE TEMPO MVFR FOR NOW.
ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING AOB 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST
WATERS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING AT 3
FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. NO CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KILM 280243
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1043 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WHERE THE PRECIPITATION FELL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE A QUITE NIGHT IN STORE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO NEAR
70 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRI AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EACH DAY THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA.

WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET ALONG THE COAST...LATEST RADAR DEPICTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND SLOWLY DECREASING IN STRENGTH...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER KLBT/KFLO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ANY
SHOWER THAT PASSES OVER EITHER TERMINAL COULD CREATE BRIEF
MVFR...BUT OVERALL ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER.AREAS OF GROUND FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL. AS FOR COASTAL SITES...WILL CONTINUE TEMPO MVFR FOR NOW.
ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING AOB 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST
WATERS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING AT 3
FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. NO CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KILM 272350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS WANING INLAND AND
THIS IS AGREEING WITH THE 21 UTC VERSION OF THE HRRR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAINLY
WEST OF A FLORENCE TO LUMBERTON LINE. THE CONVECTION BEGAN ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
THERE WERE SOME POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER MARION AND AND
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES.

A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WIND COULD LEAD TO
PATCHES OF FOG AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECREASE AFTER 09Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL UPSTREAM DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM GULF CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRI AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EACH DAY THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA.

WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET ALONG THE COAST...LATEST RADAR DEPICTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND SLOWLY DECREASING IN STRENGTH...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER KLBT/KFLO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ANY
SHOWER THAT PASSES OVER EITHER TERMINAL COULD CREATE BRIEF
MVFR...BUT OVERALL ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER.AREAS OF GROUND FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL. AS FOR COASTAL SITES...WILL CONTINUE TEMPO MVFR FOR NOW.
ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING AOB 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST
WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET. NO
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATER THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 272350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS WANING INLAND AND
THIS IS AGREEING WITH THE 21 UTC VERSION OF THE HRRR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAINLY
WEST OF A FLORENCE TO LUMBERTON LINE. THE CONVECTION BEGAN ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
THERE WERE SOME POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER MARION AND AND
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES.

A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WIND COULD LEAD TO
PATCHES OF FOG AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECREASE AFTER 09Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL UPSTREAM DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM GULF CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRI AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EACH DAY THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA.

WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET ALONG THE COAST...LATEST RADAR DEPICTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND SLOWLY DECREASING IN STRENGTH...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER KLBT/KFLO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ANY
SHOWER THAT PASSES OVER EITHER TERMINAL COULD CREATE BRIEF
MVFR...BUT OVERALL ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER.AREAS OF GROUND FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL. AS FOR COASTAL SITES...WILL CONTINUE TEMPO MVFR FOR NOW.
ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING AOB 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST
WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET. NO
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATER THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 272350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS WANING INLAND AND
THIS IS AGREEING WITH THE 21 UTC VERSION OF THE HRRR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAINLY
WEST OF A FLORENCE TO LUMBERTON LINE. THE CONVECTION BEGAN ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
THERE WERE SOME POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER MARION AND AND
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES.

A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WIND COULD LEAD TO
PATCHES OF FOG AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECREASE AFTER 09Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL UPSTREAM DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM GULF CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRI AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EACH DAY THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA.

WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET ALONG THE COAST...LATEST RADAR DEPICTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND SLOWLY DECREASING IN STRENGTH...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER KLBT/KFLO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ANY
SHOWER THAT PASSES OVER EITHER TERMINAL COULD CREATE BRIEF
MVFR...BUT OVERALL ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER.AREAS OF GROUND FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL. AS FOR COASTAL SITES...WILL CONTINUE TEMPO MVFR FOR NOW.
ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING AOB 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST
WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET. NO
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATER THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 272259
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
659 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS WANING INLAND AND
THIS IS AGREEING WITH THE 21 UTC VERSION OF THE HRRR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAINLY
WEST OF A FLORENCE TO LUMBERTON LINE. THE CONVECTION BEGAN ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
THERE WERE SOME POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER MARION AND AND
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES.

A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WIND COULD LEAD TO
PATCHES OF FOG AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECREASE AFTER 09Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL UPSTREAM DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM GULF CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY HOWEVER
WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO FRI AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EACH DAY THE
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DIMINISH INTO EARLY
EVENING DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB. SOUTHWEST FLOW INLAND
WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RESULTANT AT THE COAST EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED...MAINLY WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST
WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET. NO
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATER THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 272259
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
659 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS WANING INLAND AND
THIS IS AGREEING WITH THE 21 UTC VERSION OF THE HRRR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAINLY
WEST OF A FLORENCE TO LUMBERTON LINE. THE CONVECTION BEGAN ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
THERE WERE SOME POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER MARION AND AND
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES.

A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WIND COULD LEAD TO
PATCHES OF FOG AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECREASE AFTER 09Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL UPSTREAM DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM GULF CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY HOWEVER
WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO FRI AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EACH DAY THE
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DIMINISH INTO EARLY
EVENING DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB. SOUTHWEST FLOW INLAND
WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RESULTANT AT THE COAST EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED...MAINLY WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST
WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET. NO
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATER THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 272259
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
659 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS WANING INLAND AND
THIS IS AGREEING WITH THE 21 UTC VERSION OF THE HRRR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAINLY
WEST OF A FLORENCE TO LUMBERTON LINE. THE CONVECTION BEGAN ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
THERE WERE SOME POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER MARION AND AND
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES.

A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WIND COULD LEAD TO
PATCHES OF FOG AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECREASE AFTER 09Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL UPSTREAM DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM GULF CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY HOWEVER
WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO FRI AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EACH DAY THE
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DIMINISH INTO EARLY
EVENING DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB. SOUTHWEST FLOW INLAND
WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RESULTANT AT THE COAST EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED...MAINLY WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST
WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET. NO
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATER THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 272259
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
659 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS WANING INLAND AND
THIS IS AGREEING WITH THE 21 UTC VERSION OF THE HRRR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAINLY
WEST OF A FLORENCE TO LUMBERTON LINE. THE CONVECTION BEGAN ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
THERE WERE SOME POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER MARION AND AND
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES.

A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WIND COULD LEAD TO
PATCHES OF FOG AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECREASE AFTER 09Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL UPSTREAM DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM GULF CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY HOWEVER
WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO FRI AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EACH DAY THE
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DIMINISH INTO EARLY
EVENING DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB. SOUTHWEST FLOW INLAND
WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RESULTANT AT THE COAST EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED...MAINLY WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST
WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET. NO
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATER THIS EVENING BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 271926
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL
LIKELY SUFFER AN INTENSITY LOSS AS THE FUEL OF LOW-LEVEL HEATING
UNDERGOES GRADUAL DEPLETION THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS IN
THE MEANTIME HOWEVER MAY PERPETUATE POCKETS OF STRONG PULSE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. POP VALUES
TONIGHT WILL CARRY A STEADY DOWNTREND TREND ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS WITH FAIR CONDITIONS NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY POP OVER THE MILDER GULFSTREAM WATERS IN A LANDWARD
TRACK DUE TO DIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT ..BUT  THE CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK AND NO PLANS FOR COASTAL
SHOWERS TONIGHT  IS PLANNED. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL SUSTAIN MILD
LOWS INTO DAYBREAK BETWEEN 67-69 INLAND AND 69-72 CLOSER TO THE
OCEAN. A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WIND COULD LEAD
TO PATCHES OF MIST OR SLIVERS OF FOG BANKS AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
DECREASE AFT 9Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL
UPSTREAM DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM GULF CONVECTION COMING UP THIS WAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY HOWEVER
WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO FRI AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EACH DAY THE
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DIMINISH INTO EARLY
EVENING DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB. SOUTHWEST FLOW INLAND
WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RESULTANT AT THE COAST EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED...MAINLY WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...FRIENDLY
MARINE CONDITIONS ONGOING AS 10 TO 15 KT S WINDS PREVAIL WITH 2-3
FOOT SEAS. DOMINANT WAVE GROUP WILL PROPAGATE IN 7-8 SECOND
PERIODS...ESE 2-3 FEET CO-MINGLED WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. NO
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF STREAM WHICH MAY SPREAD NEAR
SHORE INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/MBB





000
FXUS62 KILM 271926
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL
LIKELY SUFFER AN INTENSITY LOSS AS THE FUEL OF LOW-LEVEL HEATING
UNDERGOES GRADUAL DEPLETION THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS IN
THE MEANTIME HOWEVER MAY PERPETUATE POCKETS OF STRONG PULSE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. POP VALUES
TONIGHT WILL CARRY A STEADY DOWNTREND TREND ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS WITH FAIR CONDITIONS NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY POP OVER THE MILDER GULFSTREAM WATERS IN A LANDWARD
TRACK DUE TO DIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT ..BUT  THE CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK AND NO PLANS FOR COASTAL
SHOWERS TONIGHT  IS PLANNED. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL SUSTAIN MILD
LOWS INTO DAYBREAK BETWEEN 67-69 INLAND AND 69-72 CLOSER TO THE
OCEAN. A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WIND COULD LEAD
TO PATCHES OF MIST OR SLIVERS OF FOG BANKS AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
DECREASE AFT 9Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL
UPSTREAM DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM GULF CONVECTION COMING UP THIS WAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY HOWEVER
WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO FRI AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EACH DAY THE
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DIMINISH INTO EARLY
EVENING DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB. SOUTHWEST FLOW INLAND
WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RESULTANT AT THE COAST EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED...MAINLY WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...FRIENDLY
MARINE CONDITIONS ONGOING AS 10 TO 15 KT S WINDS PREVAIL WITH 2-3
FOOT SEAS. DOMINANT WAVE GROUP WILL PROPAGATE IN 7-8 SECOND
PERIODS...ESE 2-3 FEET CO-MINGLED WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. NO
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF STREAM WHICH MAY SPREAD NEAR
SHORE INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 271702
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
102 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WEDNESDAY...PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN CONTINUES TO
SLIP AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AS MARITIME STABILITY SPREADS INLAND
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. WEAK MCV IMPULSES SURROUNDING
THE I-95 CORRIDOR WERE SUSTAINING CONVECTION FARTHER INLAND THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS SHOULD HELP PERPETUATE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DIURNAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY LESSEN CONVECTIVE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE HEADING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG PULSE TYPE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE RESULTANT INTERACTS WITH
THE MCV AND OUTFLOW INDUCED ACTIVITY NEAR I-95 FROM 20Z-22Z/4PM-
6PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE
STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND
PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING
IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER
AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DIMINISH INTO EARLY
EVENING DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB. SOUTHWEST FLOW
INLAND WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RESULTANT AT THE COAST EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED...MAINLY WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW...DISSIPATING SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WEDNESDAY...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...WITH 15 GUSTING TO
20 KT NEARSHORE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
3PM-6PM. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT WITH DOMINANT WAVE
PERIODS OF 7 SECONDS CO-MINGLED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. NO
TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT A FEW
NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS WILL POP ON THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL
YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO
EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 271702
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
102 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WEDNESDAY...PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN CONTINUES TO
SLIP AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AS MARITIME STABILITY SPREADS INLAND
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. WEAK MCV IMPULSES SURROUNDING
THE I-95 CORRIDOR WERE SUSTAINING CONVECTION FARTHER INLAND THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS SHOULD HELP PERPETUATE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DIURNAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY LESSEN CONVECTIVE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE HEADING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG PULSE TYPE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE RESULTANT INTERACTS WITH
THE MCV AND OUTFLOW INDUCED ACTIVITY NEAR I-95 FROM 20Z-22Z/4PM-
6PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE
STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND
PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING
IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER
AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DIMINISH INTO EARLY
EVENING DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB. SOUTHWEST FLOW
INLAND WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RESULTANT AT THE COAST EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED...MAINLY WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW...DISSIPATING SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WEDNESDAY...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...WITH 15 GUSTING TO
20 KT NEARSHORE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
3PM-6PM. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT WITH DOMINANT WAVE
PERIODS OF 7 SECONDS CO-MINGLED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. NO
TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT A FEW
NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS WILL POP ON THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL
YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO
EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 271702
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
102 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WEDNESDAY...PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN CONTINUES TO
SLIP AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AS MARITIME STABILITY SPREADS INLAND
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. WEAK MCV IMPULSES SURROUNDING
THE I-95 CORRIDOR WERE SUSTAINING CONVECTION FARTHER INLAND THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS SHOULD HELP PERPETUATE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DIURNAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY LESSEN CONVECTIVE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE HEADING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG PULSE TYPE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE RESULTANT INTERACTS WITH
THE MCV AND OUTFLOW INDUCED ACTIVITY NEAR I-95 FROM 20Z-22Z/4PM-
6PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE
STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND
PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING
IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER
AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DIMINISH INTO EARLY
EVENING DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB. SOUTHWEST FLOW
INLAND WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RESULTANT AT THE COAST EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED...MAINLY WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW...DISSIPATING SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WEDNESDAY...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...WITH 15 GUSTING TO
20 KT NEARSHORE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
3PM-6PM. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT WITH DOMINANT WAVE
PERIODS OF 7 SECONDS CO-MINGLED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. NO
TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT A FEW
NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS WILL POP ON THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL
YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO
EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 271702
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
102 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WEDNESDAY...PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN CONTINUES TO
SLIP AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AS MARITIME STABILITY SPREADS INLAND
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. WEAK MCV IMPULSES SURROUNDING
THE I-95 CORRIDOR WERE SUSTAINING CONVECTION FARTHER INLAND THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS SHOULD HELP PERPETUATE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DIURNAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY LESSEN CONVECTIVE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE HEADING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG PULSE TYPE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE RESULTANT INTERACTS WITH
THE MCV AND OUTFLOW INDUCED ACTIVITY NEAR I-95 FROM 20Z-22Z/4PM-
6PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE
STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND
PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING
IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER
AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DIMINISH INTO EARLY
EVENING DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB. SOUTHWEST FLOW
INLAND WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RESULTANT AT THE COAST EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED...MAINLY WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW...DISSIPATING SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WEDNESDAY...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...WITH 15 GUSTING TO
20 KT NEARSHORE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
3PM-6PM. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT WITH DOMINANT WAVE
PERIODS OF 7 SECONDS CO-MINGLED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. NO
TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT A FEW
NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS WILL POP ON THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL
YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO
EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 271412
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1012 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM WEDNESDAY...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BELOW 700 MB THIS MORNING HAS LED TO EARLY CONVECTION. A ZONE OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST HAS SPARKED CELLS WHILE
FARTHER INLAND A COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WEAK UPPER
IMPULSES WAS HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION. CAPPING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE BETWEEN H7-H5 TODAY BUT WILL WEAKEN AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BROUGHT INTO THE AREA. THIS IN TURN HOWEVER WILL DECREASE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PARTIALLY INHIBIT
SURFACE WARMING. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT WHILE POCKETS OF
STRONG CONVECTION ARE PROBABLE...OVERALL STRENGTH SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE
STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND
PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING
IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER
AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...IT IS FAIRLY SATURATED TO 700 MB.
IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH HEATING TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION. THE HRRR
MODEL SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ONLY TWO OR
THREE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY 17Z WITH
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS PUSHING INLAND. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL END A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM WEDNESDAY...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...WITH 15 GUSTING
TO 20 KT KT NEARSHORE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE 3PM-6PM. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT WITH PERIODS
6 TO 7 SECONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE 0-20NM WATERS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL
YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO
EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 271412
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1012 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM WEDNESDAY...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BELOW 700 MB THIS MORNING HAS LED TO EARLY CONVECTION. A ZONE OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST HAS SPARKED CELLS WHILE
FARTHER INLAND A COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WEAK UPPER
IMPULSES WAS HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION. CAPPING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE BETWEEN H7-H5 TODAY BUT WILL WEAKEN AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BROUGHT INTO THE AREA. THIS IN TURN HOWEVER WILL DECREASE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PARTIALLY INHIBIT
SURFACE WARMING. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT WHILE POCKETS OF
STRONG CONVECTION ARE PROBABLE...OVERALL STRENGTH SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE
STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND
PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING
IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER
AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...IT IS FAIRLY SATURATED TO 700 MB.
IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH HEATING TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION. THE HRRR
MODEL SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ONLY TWO OR
THREE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY 17Z WITH
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS PUSHING INLAND. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL END A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM WEDNESDAY...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...WITH 15 GUSTING
TO 20 KT KT NEARSHORE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE 3PM-6PM. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT WITH PERIODS
6 TO 7 SECONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE 0-20NM WATERS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL
YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO
EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 271036
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
636 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...THE NE-SW ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO
SLIDE A BIT FURTHER EAST OF THE CAROLINA COASTS THIS PERIOD. THIS
BASICALLY OPENS UP THE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOISTURE
NO LONGER THE PROBLEM. WHAT IT ALSO DOES...IT ALLOWS WEAK MID-
LEVEL S/W TROFS OR VORTS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO NOW PUSH
ACROSS THE FA. COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT REACHED THE CWA FROM THE WEST FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN A BONAFIDE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...VIA
PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS...INCREASING AVBL CAPE COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF.
AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...BASICALLY STAYED WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE WHICH BASICALLY LIES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON EITHER
SIDE OF CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE
STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND
PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING
IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER
AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...IT IS FAIRLY SATURATED TO 700 MB.
IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH HEATING TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION. THE HRRR
MODEL SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ONLY TWO OR
THREE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY 17Z WITH
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS PUSHING INLAND. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL END A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...THE NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH SEAS
EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WILL LIE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS BEFORE EXTENDING INTO THE US MAINLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
SC AND GA. THIS ORIENTATION WILL RESULT WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AS OPPOSED TO THE SE FLOW FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS FOR
SPEEDS...STILL LOOKING AT 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT...WITH A SOLID
15 KT NEARSHORE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA
BREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AT A NEARLY SOLID 3 FT WITH
PERIODS IN THE 6 TO 7 SECONDS...MAKING IT A PSEUDO ESE GROUND
SWELL AT BEST. WITH AN EXCELLENT FETCH...THIS PSEUDO SWELL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GROW INTO A TRUE ESE-SE GROUND SWELL WITH PERIODS
INCREASING 8 TO 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL
YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO
EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 271027
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE NE-SW ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO
SLIDE A BIT FURTHER EAST OF THE CAROLINA COASTS THIS PERIOD. THIS
BASICALLY OPENS UP THE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOISTURE
NO LONGER THE PROBLEM. WHAT IT ALSO DOES...IT ALLOWS WEAK MID-
LEVEL S/W TROFS OR VORTS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO NOW PUSH
ACROSS THE FA. COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT REACHED THE CWA FROM THE WEST FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN A BONAFIDE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...VIA
PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS...INCREASING AVBL CAPE COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF.
AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...BASICALLY STAYED WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE WHICH BASICALLY LIES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON EITHER
SIDE OF CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE
STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND
PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING
IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER
AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...IT IS FAIRLY SATURATED TO 700 MB.
IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH HEATING TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION. THE HRRR
MODEL SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ONLY TWO OR
THREE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY 17Z WITH
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS PUSHING INLAND. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL END A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH SEAS
EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WILL LIE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS BEFORE EXTENDING INTO THE US MAINLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
SC AND GA. THIS ORIENTATION WILL RESULT WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AS OPPOSED TO THE SE FLOW FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS FOR
SPEEDS...STILL LOOKING AT 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT...WITH A SOLID
15 KT NEARSHORE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA
BREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AT A NEARLY SOLID 3 FT WITH
PERIODS IN THE 6 TO 7 SECONDS...MAKING IT A PSEUDO ESE GROUND
SWELL AT BEST. WITH AN EXCELLENT FETCH...THIS PSEUDO SWELL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GROW INTO A TRUE ESE-SE GROUND SWELL WITH PERIODS
INCREASING BY 1 TO 3 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL
YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO
EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 271027
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE NE-SW ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO
SLIDE A BIT FURTHER EAST OF THE CAROLINA COASTS THIS PERIOD. THIS
BASICALLY OPENS UP THE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOISTURE
NO LONGER THE PROBLEM. WHAT IT ALSO DOES...IT ALLOWS WEAK MID-
LEVEL S/W TROFS OR VORTS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO NOW PUSH
ACROSS THE FA. COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT REACHED THE CWA FROM THE WEST FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN A BONAFIDE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...VIA
PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS...INCREASING AVBL CAPE COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF.
AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...BASICALLY STAYED WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE WHICH BASICALLY LIES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON EITHER
SIDE OF CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE
STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND
PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING
IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER
AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...IT IS FAIRLY SATURATED TO 700 MB.
IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH HEATING TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION. THE HRRR
MODEL SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ONLY TWO OR
THREE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY 17Z WITH
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS PUSHING INLAND. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL END A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH SEAS
EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WILL LIE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS BEFORE EXTENDING INTO THE US MAINLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
SC AND GA. THIS ORIENTATION WILL RESULT WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AS OPPOSED TO THE SE FLOW FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS FOR
SPEEDS...STILL LOOKING AT 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT...WITH A SOLID
15 KT NEARSHORE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA
BREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AT A NEARLY SOLID 3 FT WITH
PERIODS IN THE 6 TO 7 SECONDS...MAKING IT A PSEUDO ESE GROUND
SWELL AT BEST. WITH AN EXCELLENT FETCH...THIS PSEUDO SWELL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GROW INTO A TRUE ESE-SE GROUND SWELL WITH PERIODS
INCREASING BY 1 TO 3 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL
YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO
EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43





000
FXUS62 KILM 270856
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
456 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE NE-SW ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO
SLIDE A BIT FURTHER EAST OF THE CAROLINA COASTS THIS PERIOD. THIS
BASICALLY OPENS UP THE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOISTURE
NO LONGER THE PROBLEM. WHAT IT ALSO DOES...IT ALLOWS WEAK MID-
LEVEL S/W TROFS OR VORTS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO NOW PUSH
ACROSS THE FA. COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT REACHED THE CWA FROM THE WEST FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN A BONAFIDE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...VIA
PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS...INCREASING AVBL CAPE COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF.
AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...BASICALLY STAYED WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE WHICH BASICALLY LIES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON EITHER
SIDE OF CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE
STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND
PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING
IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER
AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS VARYING CIG HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH
MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR AREA...LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP VCTS/VCSH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR AS LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
AFFECT THE AREA. AFTER DAYBREAK WED...SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...INLAND SSW TO BECOME SSE AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN
HOURS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN...THOUGH GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACT TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCTS/VCSH ONGOING TAF
ATTM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH SEAS
EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WILL LIE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS BEFORE EXTENDING INTO THE US MAINLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
SC AND GA. THIS ORIENTATION WILL RESULT WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AS OPPOSED TO THE SE FLOW FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS FOR
SPEEDS...STILL LOOKING AT 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT...WITH A SOLID
15 KT NEARSHORE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA
BREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AT A NEARLY SOLID 3 FT WITH
PERIODS IN THE 6 TO 7 SECONDS...MAKING IT A PSEUDO ESE GROUND
SWELL AT BEST. WITH AN EXCELLENT FETCH...THIS PSEUDO SWELL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GROW INTO A TRUE ESE-SE GROUND SWELL WITH PERIODS
INCREASING BY 1 TO 3 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL
YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO
EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 270856
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
456 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE NE-SW ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO
SLIDE A BIT FURTHER EAST OF THE CAROLINA COASTS THIS PERIOD. THIS
BASICALLY OPENS UP THE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOISTURE
NO LONGER THE PROBLEM. WHAT IT ALSO DOES...IT ALLOWS WEAK MID-
LEVEL S/W TROFS OR VORTS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO NOW PUSH
ACROSS THE FA. COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT REACHED THE CWA FROM THE WEST FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN A BONAFIDE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...VIA
PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS...INCREASING AVBL CAPE COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF.
AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...BASICALLY STAYED WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE WHICH BASICALLY LIES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON EITHER
SIDE OF CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE
STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND
PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING
IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER
AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS VARYING CIG HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH
MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR AREA...LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP VCTS/VCSH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR AS LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
AFFECT THE AREA. AFTER DAYBREAK WED...SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...INLAND SSW TO BECOME SSE AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN
HOURS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN...THOUGH GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACT TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCTS/VCSH ONGOING TAF
ATTM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH SEAS
EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WILL LIE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS BEFORE EXTENDING INTO THE US MAINLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
SC AND GA. THIS ORIENTATION WILL RESULT WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AS OPPOSED TO THE SE FLOW FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS FOR
SPEEDS...STILL LOOKING AT 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT...WITH A SOLID
15 KT NEARSHORE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA
BREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AT A NEARLY SOLID 3 FT WITH
PERIODS IN THE 6 TO 7 SECONDS...MAKING IT A PSEUDO ESE GROUND
SWELL AT BEST. WITH AN EXCELLENT FETCH...THIS PSEUDO SWELL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GROW INTO A TRUE ESE-SE GROUND SWELL WITH PERIODS
INCREASING BY 1 TO 3 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL
YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO
EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 270718
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
WEST OF FLORENCE QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. WITH A DECENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND 1 OR 2 OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 67 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE
STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND
PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING
IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER
AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS VARYING CIG HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH
MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR AREA...LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP VCTS/VCSH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR AS LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
AFFECT THE AREA. AFTER DAYBREAK WED...SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...INLAND SSW TO BECOME SSE AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN
HOURS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN...THOUGH GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACT TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCTS/VCSH ONGOING TAF
ATTM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ONTO LAND.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS.
FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS
REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 270718
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
WEST OF FLORENCE QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. WITH A DECENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND 1 OR 2 OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 67 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE
STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND
PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE
SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING
IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER
AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS VARYING CIG HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH
MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR AREA...LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP VCTS/VCSH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR AS LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
AFFECT THE AREA. AFTER DAYBREAK WED...SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...INLAND SSW TO BECOME SSE AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN
HOURS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN...THOUGH GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACT TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCTS/VCSH ONGOING TAF
ATTM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ONTO LAND.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS.
FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS
REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 270458
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1258 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
WEST OF FLORENCE QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. WITH A DECENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND 1 OR 2 OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 67 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WE MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DIURNAL BASIS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES INLAND. THE MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
HIGHER REGARDING THE NUMERICAL NUMBERS BUT IT SEEMS DURING
CONVECTIVE SEASON THESE NUMBERS ARE QUITE VOLATILE FROM CYCLE TO
CYCLE. THE NAM MODEL ITSELF IF MORE BULLISH ON ACTIVITY FOR
WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS VERY SUMMER-LIKE. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
TRAVEL WEST AS WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MID TO UPPER LOW SPINNING WAY
OUT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION.
THESE SPIKES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE EASTERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND
MAY PRODUCE SOME INCREASED CLOUDS OR POSSIBLE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGE WILL REGAIN
STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND VERY SHALLOW...IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR JUST CLOUDS OVER
LOCAL WATERS AND ALIGNED WITH SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH
DAY. ALSO...AS RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
SPILL OVER THE TOP INITIALLY. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS PASSING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S MAINTAINING WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPS AND DAY TIMES HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. THE ONE SHORE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON PUSHING WELL INLAND
AND THEREFORE EXPECT BEST CHC OF ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND AND MAINLY IN THE WATERS OVER NIGHT. MAY SEE INCREASED SHWR
ACTIVITY COME NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LEE SIDE TROUGHING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS VARYING CIG HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH
MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR AREA...LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP VCTS/VCSH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR AS LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
AFFECT THE AREA. AFTER DAYBREAK WED...SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...INLAND SSW TO BECOME SSE AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN
HOURS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN...THOUGH GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACT TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCTS/VCSH ONGOING TAF
ATTM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ONTO LAND.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME UPTICK ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
VIA THE SEABREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE STEADY STATE WITH 2-3
FEET WITH A FEW MEANDERING FOUR FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK GRADIENT
OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP DUE TO
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN
PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 270458
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1258 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
WEST OF FLORENCE QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. WITH A DECENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND 1 OR 2 OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 67 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WE MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DIURNAL BASIS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES INLAND. THE MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
HIGHER REGARDING THE NUMERICAL NUMBERS BUT IT SEEMS DURING
CONVECTIVE SEASON THESE NUMBERS ARE QUITE VOLATILE FROM CYCLE TO
CYCLE. THE NAM MODEL ITSELF IF MORE BULLISH ON ACTIVITY FOR
WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS VERY SUMMER-LIKE. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
TRAVEL WEST AS WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MID TO UPPER LOW SPINNING WAY
OUT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION.
THESE SPIKES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE EASTERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND
MAY PRODUCE SOME INCREASED CLOUDS OR POSSIBLE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGE WILL REGAIN
STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND VERY SHALLOW...IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR JUST CLOUDS OVER
LOCAL WATERS AND ALIGNED WITH SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH
DAY. ALSO...AS RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
SPILL OVER THE TOP INITIALLY. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS PASSING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S MAINTAINING WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPS AND DAY TIMES HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. THE ONE SHORE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON PUSHING WELL INLAND
AND THEREFORE EXPECT BEST CHC OF ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND AND MAINLY IN THE WATERS OVER NIGHT. MAY SEE INCREASED SHWR
ACTIVITY COME NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LEE SIDE TROUGHING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS VARYING CIG HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH
MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR AREA...LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP VCTS/VCSH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR AS LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
AFFECT THE AREA. AFTER DAYBREAK WED...SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...INLAND SSW TO BECOME SSE AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN
HOURS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN...THOUGH GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACT TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCTS/VCSH ONGOING TAF
ATTM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ONTO LAND.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME UPTICK ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
VIA THE SEABREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE STEADY STATE WITH 2-3
FEET WITH A FEW MEANDERING FOUR FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK GRADIENT
OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP DUE TO
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN
PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 270458
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1258 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
WEST OF FLORENCE QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. WITH A DECENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND 1 OR 2 OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 67 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WE MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DIURNAL BASIS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES INLAND. THE MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
HIGHER REGARDING THE NUMERICAL NUMBERS BUT IT SEEMS DURING
CONVECTIVE SEASON THESE NUMBERS ARE QUITE VOLATILE FROM CYCLE TO
CYCLE. THE NAM MODEL ITSELF IF MORE BULLISH ON ACTIVITY FOR
WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS VERY SUMMER-LIKE. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
TRAVEL WEST AS WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MID TO UPPER LOW SPINNING WAY
OUT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION.
THESE SPIKES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE EASTERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND
MAY PRODUCE SOME INCREASED CLOUDS OR POSSIBLE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGE WILL REGAIN
STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND VERY SHALLOW...IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR JUST CLOUDS OVER
LOCAL WATERS AND ALIGNED WITH SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH
DAY. ALSO...AS RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
SPILL OVER THE TOP INITIALLY. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS PASSING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S MAINTAINING WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPS AND DAY TIMES HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. THE ONE SHORE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON PUSHING WELL INLAND
AND THEREFORE EXPECT BEST CHC OF ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND AND MAINLY IN THE WATERS OVER NIGHT. MAY SEE INCREASED SHWR
ACTIVITY COME NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LEE SIDE TROUGHING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS VARYING CIG HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH
MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR AREA...LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP VCTS/VCSH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR AS LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
AFFECT THE AREA. AFTER DAYBREAK WED...SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...INLAND SSW TO BECOME SSE AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN
HOURS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN...THOUGH GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACT TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCTS/VCSH ONGOING TAF
ATTM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ONTO LAND.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME UPTICK ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
VIA THE SEABREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE STEADY STATE WITH 2-3
FEET WITH A FEW MEANDERING FOUR FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK GRADIENT
OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP DUE TO
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN
PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 270458
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1258 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
WEST OF FLORENCE QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. WITH A DECENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND 1 OR 2 OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 67 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WE MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DIURNAL BASIS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES INLAND. THE MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
HIGHER REGARDING THE NUMERICAL NUMBERS BUT IT SEEMS DURING
CONVECTIVE SEASON THESE NUMBERS ARE QUITE VOLATILE FROM CYCLE TO
CYCLE. THE NAM MODEL ITSELF IF MORE BULLISH ON ACTIVITY FOR
WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS VERY SUMMER-LIKE. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
TRAVEL WEST AS WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MID TO UPPER LOW SPINNING WAY
OUT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION.
THESE SPIKES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE EASTERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND
MAY PRODUCE SOME INCREASED CLOUDS OR POSSIBLE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGE WILL REGAIN
STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND VERY SHALLOW...IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR JUST CLOUDS OVER
LOCAL WATERS AND ALIGNED WITH SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH
DAY. ALSO...AS RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
SPILL OVER THE TOP INITIALLY. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS PASSING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S MAINTAINING WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPS AND DAY TIMES HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. THE ONE SHORE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON PUSHING WELL INLAND
AND THEREFORE EXPECT BEST CHC OF ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND AND MAINLY IN THE WATERS OVER NIGHT. MAY SEE INCREASED SHWR
ACTIVITY COME NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LEE SIDE TROUGHING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS VARYING CIG HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH
MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR AREA...LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP VCTS/VCSH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR AS LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
AFFECT THE AREA. AFTER DAYBREAK WED...SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...INLAND SSW TO BECOME SSE AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN
HOURS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN...THOUGH GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACT TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCTS/VCSH ONGOING TAF
ATTM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ONTO LAND.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME UPTICK ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
VIA THE SEABREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE STEADY STATE WITH 2-3
FEET WITH A FEW MEANDERING FOUR FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK GRADIENT
OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP DUE TO
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN
PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 270203
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1003 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
WEST OF FLORENCE QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. WITH A DECENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND 1 OR 2 OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 67 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WE MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DIURNAL BASIS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES INLAND. THE MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
HIGHER REGARDING THE NUMERICAL NUMBERS BUT IT SEEMS DURING
CONVECTIVE SEASON THESE NUMBERS ARE QUITE VOLATILE FROM CYCLE TO
CYCLE. THE NAM MODEL ITSELF IF MORE BULLISH ON ACTIVITY FOR
WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS VERY SUMMER-LIKE. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
TRAVEL WEST AS WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MID TO UPPER LOW SPINNING WAY
OUT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION.
THESE SPIKES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE EASTERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND
MAY PRODUCE SOME INCREASED CLOUDS OR POSSIBLE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGE WILL REGAIN
STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND VERY SHALLOW...IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR JUST CLOUDS OVER
LOCAL WATERS AND ALIGNED WITH SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH
DAY. ALSO...AS RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
SPILL OVER THE TOP INITIALLY. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS PASSING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S MAINTAINING WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPS AND DAY TIMES HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. THE ONE SHORE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON PUSHING WELL INLAND
AND THEREFORE EXPECT BEST CHC OF ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND AND MAINLY IN THE WATERS OVER NIGHT. MAY SEE INCREASED SHWR
ACTIVITY COME NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LEE SIDE TROUGHING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AND LOW CIGS/LIGHT PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARYING CIG HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THOUGH MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR
AREA TONIGHT...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES DEPICT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP VCTS/VCSH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR AS LOW CIGS AND
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AFFECT THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ANTICIPATE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN...THOUGH GIVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACT TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCSH IN GOING TAF
ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ONTO LAND.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME UPTICK ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
VIA THE SEABREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE STEADY STATE WITH 2-3
FEET WITH A FEW MEANDERING FOUR FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK GRADIENT
OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP DUE TO
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN
PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 270203
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1003 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
WEST OF FLORENCE QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. WITH A DECENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND 1 OR 2 OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 67 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WE MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DIURNAL BASIS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES INLAND. THE MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
HIGHER REGARDING THE NUMERICAL NUMBERS BUT IT SEEMS DURING
CONVECTIVE SEASON THESE NUMBERS ARE QUITE VOLATILE FROM CYCLE TO
CYCLE. THE NAM MODEL ITSELF IF MORE BULLISH ON ACTIVITY FOR
WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS VERY SUMMER-LIKE. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
TRAVEL WEST AS WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MID TO UPPER LOW SPINNING WAY
OUT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION.
THESE SPIKES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE EASTERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND
MAY PRODUCE SOME INCREASED CLOUDS OR POSSIBLE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGE WILL REGAIN
STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND VERY SHALLOW...IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR JUST CLOUDS OVER
LOCAL WATERS AND ALIGNED WITH SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH
DAY. ALSO...AS RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
SPILL OVER THE TOP INITIALLY. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS PASSING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S MAINTAINING WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPS AND DAY TIMES HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. THE ONE SHORE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON PUSHING WELL INLAND
AND THEREFORE EXPECT BEST CHC OF ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND AND MAINLY IN THE WATERS OVER NIGHT. MAY SEE INCREASED SHWR
ACTIVITY COME NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LEE SIDE TROUGHING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AND LOW CIGS/LIGHT PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARYING CIG HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THOUGH MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR
AREA TONIGHT...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES DEPICT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP VCTS/VCSH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR AS LOW CIGS AND
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AFFECT THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ANTICIPATE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN...THOUGH GIVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACT TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCSH IN GOING TAF
ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ONTO LAND.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME UPTICK ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
VIA THE SEABREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE STEADY STATE WITH 2-3
FEET WITH A FEW MEANDERING FOUR FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK GRADIENT
OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP DUE TO
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN
PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 270203
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1003 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
WEST OF FLORENCE QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. WITH A DECENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND 1 OR 2 OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 67 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WE MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DIURNAL BASIS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES INLAND. THE MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
HIGHER REGARDING THE NUMERICAL NUMBERS BUT IT SEEMS DURING
CONVECTIVE SEASON THESE NUMBERS ARE QUITE VOLATILE FROM CYCLE TO
CYCLE. THE NAM MODEL ITSELF IF MORE BULLISH ON ACTIVITY FOR
WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS VERY SUMMER-LIKE. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
TRAVEL WEST AS WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MID TO UPPER LOW SPINNING WAY
OUT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION.
THESE SPIKES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE EASTERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND
MAY PRODUCE SOME INCREASED CLOUDS OR POSSIBLE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGE WILL REGAIN
STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND VERY SHALLOW...IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR JUST CLOUDS OVER
LOCAL WATERS AND ALIGNED WITH SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH
DAY. ALSO...AS RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
SPILL OVER THE TOP INITIALLY. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS PASSING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S MAINTAINING WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPS AND DAY TIMES HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. THE ONE SHORE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON PUSHING WELL INLAND
AND THEREFORE EXPECT BEST CHC OF ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND AND MAINLY IN THE WATERS OVER NIGHT. MAY SEE INCREASED SHWR
ACTIVITY COME NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LEE SIDE TROUGHING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AND LOW CIGS/LIGHT PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARYING CIG HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THOUGH MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR
AREA TONIGHT...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES DEPICT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP VCTS/VCSH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR AS LOW CIGS AND
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AFFECT THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ANTICIPATE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN...THOUGH GIVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACT TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCSH IN GOING TAF
ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ONTO LAND.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME UPTICK ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
VIA THE SEABREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE STEADY STATE WITH 2-3
FEET WITH A FEW MEANDERING FOUR FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK GRADIENT
OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP DUE TO
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN
PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 270203
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1003 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
WEST OF FLORENCE QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. WITH A DECENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND 1 OR 2 OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 67 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WE MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DIURNAL BASIS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES INLAND. THE MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
HIGHER REGARDING THE NUMERICAL NUMBERS BUT IT SEEMS DURING
CONVECTIVE SEASON THESE NUMBERS ARE QUITE VOLATILE FROM CYCLE TO
CYCLE. THE NAM MODEL ITSELF IF MORE BULLISH ON ACTIVITY FOR
WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS VERY SUMMER-LIKE. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
TRAVEL WEST AS WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MID TO UPPER LOW SPINNING WAY
OUT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION.
THESE SPIKES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE EASTERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND
MAY PRODUCE SOME INCREASED CLOUDS OR POSSIBLE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGE WILL REGAIN
STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND VERY SHALLOW...IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR JUST CLOUDS OVER
LOCAL WATERS AND ALIGNED WITH SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH
DAY. ALSO...AS RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
SPILL OVER THE TOP INITIALLY. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS PASSING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S MAINTAINING WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPS AND DAY TIMES HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. THE ONE SHORE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON PUSHING WELL INLAND
AND THEREFORE EXPECT BEST CHC OF ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND AND MAINLY IN THE WATERS OVER NIGHT. MAY SEE INCREASED SHWR
ACTIVITY COME NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LEE SIDE TROUGHING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AND LOW CIGS/LIGHT PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARYING CIG HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THOUGH MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR
AREA TONIGHT...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES DEPICT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP VCTS/VCSH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR AS LOW CIGS AND
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AFFECT THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ANTICIPATE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN...THOUGH GIVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACT TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCSH IN GOING TAF
ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ONTO LAND.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME UPTICK ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
VIA THE SEABREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE STEADY STATE WITH 2-3
FEET WITH A FEW MEANDERING FOUR FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK GRADIENT
OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP DUE TO
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN
PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities