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000
FXUS62 KILM 040046
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
846 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM THURSDAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NE SC PER LATEST SFC ANALYSIS...WAS HELPING TO SPUR BOUTS
ON HEAVY RAINFALL BENEATH SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MURRELLS INLET
TO HEMINGWAY TO LAKE CITY THIS EVENING. DIURNAL COOLING HAS TAKEN A
TOLL ON RAINFALL INTENSITIES OVERALL...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE THROUGH MID EVENING IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
COULD SUSTAIN ISOLATED TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PRIMARILY
IN SC THROUGH EVENING. PRE-DAWN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS AND CAPE FEAR POPS BOOST UP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND LATE. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES INITIALLY WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS N GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRI MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN RETROGRADE AS IT MOVES BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SAT
AND SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
RIDGE SOUTHWARD WITH A WEDGE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS BY SAT. THIS ANOMALOUS WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
DAY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN DOES MOISTEN UP BY FRI EVE...BUT THE MOISTURE
IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE 5-9 KFT LAYER.

WILL TREND POPS HIGHER AS WE MOVE FROM FRI TO SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER COLUMNAR MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS NE FLOW INCREASES. WILL CAP POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT AS
SIGNALS SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS REMAIN MIXED. HIGHER POPS MAY BE
WARRANTED...AT SOME POINT...BUT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR S AND SE WILL MOVE BACK TO THE N AND W.

FRI STILL LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA ON SAT AND HIGHS THAT DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. LOWS AROUND 70 FRI NIGHT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERHEAD
SUN-TUE AS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH GETS STUCK BENEATH A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO BE PUSHED MUCH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...ENOUGH RESIDUAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND FORCING ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ON TUESDAY...WILL CREATE STILL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST POP SHOULD STILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COAST...BUT WIDESPREAD HIGH QPF SEEMS UNLIKELY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY WEDNESDAY...AND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FL/GA COAST...WED/THU WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. EXPECT TEMPS
WED/THU TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS SUN- TUE THANKS TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ILM CWA ATTM WILL
CONTINUE TO WANE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER THE DEMISE OF THE DAYS
INSOLATION. ALL TERMINALS WILL START OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE 5H VORT OVER WESTERN GA...IS PROGGED TO MOVE SE
AND PASS SOUTH OF ALL ILM TERMINALS. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH ITS DYNAMICS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
WITH A RELAXED SFC PG AND CLOUDINESS TO THIN OUT LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE DAYS CONVECTION. EXPECT MVFR FOG TO
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS TERMINALS RECEIVING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL.
FOR THOSE SITES...MAY BRING VSBY DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS...IE. AT
OR BELOW 1SM. ALL SITES MAY OBSERVE CALM WINDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
FRI HRS.

FOR DAYTIME FRI...WILL SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO VSBY TO 5SM OR HIGHER
AFTER 12Z. REDUCED VSBY FROM HAZE COULD BECOME A PROBLEM AT MYR
AND CRE SITES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
BACKDOOR SFC COOL FRONT. LOOK FOR THIS FRONT...TO SLOWLY DROP
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH MODELS A BIT HESITANT ON WHETHER
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR EITHER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OR POSSIBLY
IMMEDIATELY AFTER ITS PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDE CONVECTION VCNTY FOR
THE INLAND TERMINALS...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE SEA BREEZE AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COOL FRONT TO
PLACE CONVECTION AT THE COASTAL TERMS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR...IN MORNING FOG...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SPECIFICALLY SATURDAY THRU MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 718 PM THURSDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS
WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE
OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT MADE UP OF ESE WAVES 2 FT EVERY
8 SECONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A LAND BREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH AN
OFFSHORE BIAS FRI MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
FRI NIGHT AND THEN WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP. A MODEST NE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FRI NIGHT AND THEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL BUILD TO MAINLY
3 FT SAT AND SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS LONG BAY WHERE THE FETCH IS
SEVERELY LIMITED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST
WILL CREATE NE WINDS SUN AND MON...BEFORE THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION TO E/SE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT. AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY/TUESDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 10 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUNDAY...WITH 2- 4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS FORMED THROUGH A 5 SEC NE WIND
WAVE. SEAS WILL FALL IN TANDEM WITH THE EASING WINDS
MON/TUE...BECOMING 1-3 FT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KILM 040046
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
846 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM THURSDAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NE SC PER LATEST SFC ANALYSIS...WAS HELPING TO SPUR BOUTS
ON HEAVY RAINFALL BENEATH SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MURRELLS INLET
TO HEMINGWAY TO LAKE CITY THIS EVENING. DIURNAL COOLING HAS TAKEN A
TOLL ON RAINFALL INTENSITIES OVERALL...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE THROUGH MID EVENING IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
COULD SUSTAIN ISOLATED TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PRIMARILY
IN SC THROUGH EVENING. PRE-DAWN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS AND CAPE FEAR POPS BOOST UP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND LATE. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES INITIALLY WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS N GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRI MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN RETROGRADE AS IT MOVES BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SAT
AND SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
RIDGE SOUTHWARD WITH A WEDGE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS BY SAT. THIS ANOMALOUS WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
DAY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN DOES MOISTEN UP BY FRI EVE...BUT THE MOISTURE
IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE 5-9 KFT LAYER.

WILL TREND POPS HIGHER AS WE MOVE FROM FRI TO SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER COLUMNAR MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS NE FLOW INCREASES. WILL CAP POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT AS
SIGNALS SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS REMAIN MIXED. HIGHER POPS MAY BE
WARRANTED...AT SOME POINT...BUT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR S AND SE WILL MOVE BACK TO THE N AND W.

FRI STILL LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA ON SAT AND HIGHS THAT DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. LOWS AROUND 70 FRI NIGHT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERHEAD
SUN-TUE AS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH GETS STUCK BENEATH A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO BE PUSHED MUCH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...ENOUGH RESIDUAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND FORCING ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ON TUESDAY...WILL CREATE STILL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST POP SHOULD STILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COAST...BUT WIDESPREAD HIGH QPF SEEMS UNLIKELY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY WEDNESDAY...AND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FL/GA COAST...WED/THU WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. EXPECT TEMPS
WED/THU TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS SUN- TUE THANKS TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ILM CWA ATTM WILL
CONTINUE TO WANE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER THE DEMISE OF THE DAYS
INSOLATION. ALL TERMINALS WILL START OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE 5H VORT OVER WESTERN GA...IS PROGGED TO MOVE SE
AND PASS SOUTH OF ALL ILM TERMINALS. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH ITS DYNAMICS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
WITH A RELAXED SFC PG AND CLOUDINESS TO THIN OUT LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE DAYS CONVECTION. EXPECT MVFR FOG TO
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS TERMINALS RECEIVING CONVECTIVE RAINFALL.
FOR THOSE SITES...MAY BRING VSBY DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS...IE. AT
OR BELOW 1SM. ALL SITES MAY OBSERVE CALM WINDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
FRI HRS.

FOR DAYTIME FRI...WILL SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO VSBY TO 5SM OR HIGHER
AFTER 12Z. REDUCED VSBY FROM HAZE COULD BECOME A PROBLEM AT MYR
AND CRE SITES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
BACKDOOR SFC COOL FRONT. LOOK FOR THIS FRONT...TO SLOWLY DROP
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH MODELS A BIT HESITANT ON WHETHER
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR EITHER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OR POSSIBLY
IMMEDIATELY AFTER ITS PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDE CONVECTION VCNTY FOR
THE INLAND TERMINALS...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE SEA BREEZE AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COOL FRONT TO
PLACE CONVECTION AT THE COASTAL TERMS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR...IN MORNING FOG...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SPECIFICALLY SATURDAY THRU MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 718 PM THURSDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS
WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE
OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT MADE UP OF ESE WAVES 2 FT EVERY
8 SECONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A LAND BREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH AN
OFFSHORE BIAS FRI MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
FRI NIGHT AND THEN WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP. A MODEST NE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FRI NIGHT AND THEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL BUILD TO MAINLY
3 FT SAT AND SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS LONG BAY WHERE THE FETCH IS
SEVERELY LIMITED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST
WILL CREATE NE WINDS SUN AND MON...BEFORE THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION TO E/SE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT. AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY/TUESDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 10 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUNDAY...WITH 2- 4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS FORMED THROUGH A 5 SEC NE WIND
WAVE. SEAS WILL FALL IN TANDEM WITH THE EASING WINDS
MON/TUE...BECOMING 1-3 FT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KILM 032326
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
718 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM THURSDAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NE SC PER LATEST SFC ANALYSIS...WAS HELPING TO SPUR BOUTS
ON HEAVY RAINFALL BENEATH SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MURRELLS INLET
TO HEMINGWAY TO LAKE CITY THIS EVENING. DIURNAL COOLING HAS TAKEN A
TOLL ON RAINFALL INTENSITIES OVERALL...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE THROUGH MID EVENING IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
COULD SUSTAIN ISOLATED TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PRIMARILY
IN SC THROUGH EVENING. PRE-DAWN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS AND CAPE FEAR POPS BOOST UP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND LATE. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES INITIALLY WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS N GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRI MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN RETROGRADE AS IT MOVES BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SAT
AND SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
RIDGE SOUTHWARD WITH A WEDGE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS BY SAT. THIS ANOMALOUS WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
DAY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN DOES MOISTEN UP BY FRI EVE...BUT THE MOISTURE
IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE 5-9 KFT LAYER.

WILL TREND POPS HIGHER AS WE MOVE FROM FRI TO SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER COLUMNAR MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS NE FLOW INCREASES. WILL CAP POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT AS
SIGNALS SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS REMAIN MIXED. HIGHER POPS MAY BE
WARRANTED...AT SOME POINT...BUT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR S AND SE WILL MOVE BACK TO THE N AND W.

FRI STILL LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA ON SAT AND HIGHS THAT DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. LOWS AROUND 70 FRI NIGHT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERHEAD
SUN-TUE AS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH GETS STUCK BENEATH A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO BE PUSHED MUCH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...ENOUGH RESIDUAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND FORCING ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ON TUESDAY...WILL CREATE STILL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST POP SHOULD STILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COAST...BUT WIDESPREAD HIGH QPF SEEMS UNLIKELY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY WEDNESDAY...AND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FL/GA COAST...WED/THU WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. EXPECT TEMPS
WED/THU TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS SUN- TUE THANKS TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COASTAL TERMINALS
AND KLBT SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTED
COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH LACK OF HEATING
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IF RAINFALL OCCURS.
ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR.

AFTER SUNRISE ANY IFR AT KLBT/KFLO SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING.
COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING
MAINLY AT KILM. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...AND
NW-N AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT KCRE/KMYR
BY LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 718 PM THURSDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS
WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE
OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT MADE UP OF ESE WAVES 2 FT EVERY
8 SECONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A LAND BREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH AN
OFFSHORE BIAS FRI MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
FRI NIGHT AND THEN WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP. A MODEST NE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FRI NIGHT AND THEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL BUILD TO MAINLY
3 FT SAT AND SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS LONG BAY WHERE THE FETCH IS
SEVERELY LIMITED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST
WILL CREATE NE WINDS SUN AND MON...BEFORE THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION TO E/SE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT. AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY/TUESDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 10 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUNDAY...WITH 2- 4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS FORMED THROUGH A 5 SEC NE WIND
WAVE. SEAS WILL FALL IN TANDEM WITH THE EASING WINDS
MON/TUE...BECOMING 1-3 FT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 032326
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
718 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM THURSDAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NE SC PER LATEST SFC ANALYSIS...WAS HELPING TO SPUR BOUTS
ON HEAVY RAINFALL BENEATH SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MURRELLS INLET
TO HEMINGWAY TO LAKE CITY THIS EVENING. DIURNAL COOLING HAS TAKEN A
TOLL ON RAINFALL INTENSITIES OVERALL...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE THROUGH MID EVENING IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
COULD SUSTAIN ISOLATED TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PRIMARILY
IN SC THROUGH EVENING. PRE-DAWN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS AND CAPE FEAR POPS BOOST UP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND LATE. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES INITIALLY WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS N GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRI MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN RETROGRADE AS IT MOVES BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SAT
AND SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
RIDGE SOUTHWARD WITH A WEDGE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS BY SAT. THIS ANOMALOUS WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
DAY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN DOES MOISTEN UP BY FRI EVE...BUT THE MOISTURE
IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE 5-9 KFT LAYER.

WILL TREND POPS HIGHER AS WE MOVE FROM FRI TO SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER COLUMNAR MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS NE FLOW INCREASES. WILL CAP POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT AS
SIGNALS SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS REMAIN MIXED. HIGHER POPS MAY BE
WARRANTED...AT SOME POINT...BUT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR S AND SE WILL MOVE BACK TO THE N AND W.

FRI STILL LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA ON SAT AND HIGHS THAT DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. LOWS AROUND 70 FRI NIGHT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERHEAD
SUN-TUE AS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH GETS STUCK BENEATH A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO BE PUSHED MUCH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...ENOUGH RESIDUAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND FORCING ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ON TUESDAY...WILL CREATE STILL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST POP SHOULD STILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COAST...BUT WIDESPREAD HIGH QPF SEEMS UNLIKELY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY WEDNESDAY...AND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FL/GA COAST...WED/THU WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. EXPECT TEMPS
WED/THU TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS SUN- TUE THANKS TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COASTAL TERMINALS
AND KLBT SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTED
COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH LACK OF HEATING
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IF RAINFALL OCCURS.
ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR.

AFTER SUNRISE ANY IFR AT KLBT/KFLO SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING.
COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING
MAINLY AT KILM. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...AND
NW-N AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT KCRE/KMYR
BY LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 718 PM THURSDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS
WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE
OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT MADE UP OF ESE WAVES 2 FT EVERY
8 SECONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A LAND BREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH AN
OFFSHORE BIAS FRI MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
FRI NIGHT AND THEN WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP. A MODEST NE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FRI NIGHT AND THEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL BUILD TO MAINLY
3 FT SAT AND SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS LONG BAY WHERE THE FETCH IS
SEVERELY LIMITED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST
WILL CREATE NE WINDS SUN AND MON...BEFORE THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION TO E/SE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT. AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY/TUESDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 10 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUNDAY...WITH 2- 4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS FORMED THROUGH A 5 SEC NE WIND
WAVE. SEAS WILL FALL IN TANDEM WITH THE EASING WINDS
MON/TUE...BECOMING 1-3 FT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 032326
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
718 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM THURSDAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NE SC PER LATEST SFC ANALYSIS...WAS HELPING TO SPUR BOUTS
ON HEAVY RAINFALL BENEATH SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MURRELLS INLET
TO HEMINGWAY TO LAKE CITY THIS EVENING. DIURNAL COOLING HAS TAKEN A
TOLL ON RAINFALL INTENSITIES OVERALL...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE THROUGH MID EVENING IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
COULD SUSTAIN ISOLATED TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PRIMARILY
IN SC THROUGH EVENING. PRE-DAWN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS AND CAPE FEAR POPS BOOST UP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND LATE. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES INITIALLY WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS N GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRI MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN RETROGRADE AS IT MOVES BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SAT
AND SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
RIDGE SOUTHWARD WITH A WEDGE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS BY SAT. THIS ANOMALOUS WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
DAY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN DOES MOISTEN UP BY FRI EVE...BUT THE MOISTURE
IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE 5-9 KFT LAYER.

WILL TREND POPS HIGHER AS WE MOVE FROM FRI TO SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER COLUMNAR MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS NE FLOW INCREASES. WILL CAP POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT AS
SIGNALS SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS REMAIN MIXED. HIGHER POPS MAY BE
WARRANTED...AT SOME POINT...BUT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR S AND SE WILL MOVE BACK TO THE N AND W.

FRI STILL LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA ON SAT AND HIGHS THAT DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. LOWS AROUND 70 FRI NIGHT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERHEAD
SUN-TUE AS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH GETS STUCK BENEATH A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO BE PUSHED MUCH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...ENOUGH RESIDUAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND FORCING ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ON TUESDAY...WILL CREATE STILL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST POP SHOULD STILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COAST...BUT WIDESPREAD HIGH QPF SEEMS UNLIKELY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY WEDNESDAY...AND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FL/GA COAST...WED/THU WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. EXPECT TEMPS
WED/THU TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS SUN- TUE THANKS TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COASTAL TERMINALS
AND KLBT SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTED
COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH LACK OF HEATING
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IF RAINFALL OCCURS.
ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR.

AFTER SUNRISE ANY IFR AT KLBT/KFLO SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING.
COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING
MAINLY AT KILM. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...AND
NW-N AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT KCRE/KMYR
BY LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 718 PM THURSDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS
WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE
OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT MADE UP OF ESE WAVES 2 FT EVERY
8 SECONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A LAND BREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH AN
OFFSHORE BIAS FRI MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
FRI NIGHT AND THEN WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP. A MODEST NE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FRI NIGHT AND THEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL BUILD TO MAINLY
3 FT SAT AND SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS LONG BAY WHERE THE FETCH IS
SEVERELY LIMITED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST
WILL CREATE NE WINDS SUN AND MON...BEFORE THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION TO E/SE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT. AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY/TUESDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 10 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUNDAY...WITH 2- 4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS FORMED THROUGH A 5 SEC NE WIND
WAVE. SEAS WILL FALL IN TANDEM WITH THE EASING WINDS
MON/TUE...BECOMING 1-3 FT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 032318
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
718 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM THURSDAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NE SC PER LATEST SFC ANALYSIS...WAS HELPING TO SPUR BOUTS
ON HEAVY RAINFALL BENEATH SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MURRELLS INLET
TO HEMINGWAY TO LAKE CITY THIS EVENING. DIURNAL COOLING HAS TAKEN
A TOLL ON RAINFALL INTENSITIES OVERALL INTERACTION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE THROUGH MID EVENING IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY COULD SUSTAIN ISOLATED TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH EVENING PRIMARILY IN SC. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
EXPECT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WITH THE
EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS N GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRI MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN RETROGRADE AS IT MOVES BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SAT
AND SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
RIDGE SOUTHWARD WITH A WEDGE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS BY SAT. THIS ANOMALOUS WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
DAY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN DOES MOISTEN UP BY FRI EVE...BUT THE MOISTURE
IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE 5-9 KFT LAYER.

WILL TREND POPS HIGHER AS WE MOVE FROM FRI TO SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER COLUMNAR MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS NE FLOW INCREASES. WILL CAP POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT AS
SIGNALS SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS REMAIN MIXED. HIGHER POPS MAY BE
WARRANTED...AT SOME POINT...BUT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR S AND SE WILL MOVE BACK TO THE N AND W.

FRI STILL LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA ON SAT AND HIGHS THAT DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. LOWS AROUND 70 FRI NIGHT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERHEAD
SUN-TUE AS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH GETS STUCK BENEATH A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO BE PUSHED MUCH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...ENOUGH RESIDUAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND FORCING ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ON TUESDAY...WILL CREATE STILL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST POP SHOULD STILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COAST...BUT WIDESPREAD HIGH QPF SEEMS UNLIKELY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY WEDNESDAY...AND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FL/GA COAST...WED/THU WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. EXPECT TEMPS
WED/THU TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS SUN- TUE THANKS TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COASTAL TERMINALS
AND KLBT SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTED
COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH LACK OF HEATING
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IF RAINFALL OCCURS.
ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR.

AFTER SUNRISE ANY IFR AT KLBT/KFLO SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING.
COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING
MAINLY AT KILM. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...AND
NW-N AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT KCRE/KMYR
BY LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 718 PM THURSDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS
WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE
OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT MADE UP OF ESE WAVES 2 FT EVERY
8 SECONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A LAND BREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH AN
OFFSHORE BIAS FRI MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
FRI NIGHT AND THEN WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP. A MODEST NE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FRI NIGHT AND THEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL BUILD TO MAINLY
3 FT SAT AND SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS LONG BAY WHERE THE FETCH IS
SEVERELY LIMITED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST
WILL CREATE NE WINDS SUN AND MON...BEFORE THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION TO E/SE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT. AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY/TUESDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 10 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUNDAY...WITH 2- 4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS FORMED THROUGH A 5 SEC NE WIND
WAVE. SEAS WILL FALL IN TANDEM WITH THE EASING WINDS
MON/TUE...BECOMING 1-3 FT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 032318
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
718 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM THURSDAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NE SC PER LATEST SFC ANALYSIS...WAS HELPING TO SPUR BOUTS
ON HEAVY RAINFALL BENEATH SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MURRELLS INLET
TO HEMINGWAY TO LAKE CITY THIS EVENING. DIURNAL COOLING HAS TAKEN
A TOLL ON RAINFALL INTENSITIES OVERALL INTERACTION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE THROUGH MID EVENING IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY COULD SUSTAIN ISOLATED TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH EVENING PRIMARILY IN SC. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
EXPECT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WITH THE
EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS N GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRI MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN RETROGRADE AS IT MOVES BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SAT
AND SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
RIDGE SOUTHWARD WITH A WEDGE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS BY SAT. THIS ANOMALOUS WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
DAY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN DOES MOISTEN UP BY FRI EVE...BUT THE MOISTURE
IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE 5-9 KFT LAYER.

WILL TREND POPS HIGHER AS WE MOVE FROM FRI TO SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER COLUMNAR MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS NE FLOW INCREASES. WILL CAP POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT AS
SIGNALS SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS REMAIN MIXED. HIGHER POPS MAY BE
WARRANTED...AT SOME POINT...BUT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR S AND SE WILL MOVE BACK TO THE N AND W.

FRI STILL LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA ON SAT AND HIGHS THAT DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. LOWS AROUND 70 FRI NIGHT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERHEAD
SUN-TUE AS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH GETS STUCK BENEATH A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO BE PUSHED MUCH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...ENOUGH RESIDUAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND FORCING ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ON TUESDAY...WILL CREATE STILL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST POP SHOULD STILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COAST...BUT WIDESPREAD HIGH QPF SEEMS UNLIKELY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY WEDNESDAY...AND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FL/GA COAST...WED/THU WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. EXPECT TEMPS
WED/THU TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS SUN- TUE THANKS TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COASTAL TERMINALS
AND KLBT SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTED
COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH LACK OF HEATING
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IF RAINFALL OCCURS.
ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR.

AFTER SUNRISE ANY IFR AT KLBT/KFLO SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING.
COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING
MAINLY AT KILM. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...AND
NW-N AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT KCRE/KMYR
BY LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 718 PM THURSDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS
WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE
OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT MADE UP OF ESE WAVES 2 FT EVERY
8 SECONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A LAND BREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH AN
OFFSHORE BIAS FRI MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
FRI NIGHT AND THEN WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP. A MODEST NE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FRI NIGHT AND THEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL BUILD TO MAINLY
3 FT SAT AND SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS LONG BAY WHERE THE FETCH IS
SEVERELY LIMITED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST
WILL CREATE NE WINDS SUN AND MON...BEFORE THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION TO E/SE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT. AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY/TUESDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 10 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUNDAY...WITH 2- 4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS FORMED THROUGH A 5 SEC NE WIND
WAVE. SEAS WILL FALL IN TANDEM WITH THE EASING WINDS
MON/TUE...BECOMING 1-3 FT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 031904
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WAS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
TROUGH WITH DEWPOINT DOWN TO THE MID 60S JUST WEST NORTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE EXITED THE HATTERAS COAST THIS MORNING
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER NRN GA.
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WERE MORE NORTHERLY WITH DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NC/VA BORDER THIS MORNING.
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY WHICH WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE A GREATER DOWNSLOPE PUSH AND WARMER TEMPS FOR OUR
AREA TODAY.

HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MARLBORO TO LUMBERTON AND ACROSS TO INLAND PENDER COUNTY...WITH
READINGS UP ABOVE 70 MOST PLACES. THIS TROUGH ORIENTED MORE WEST
TO EAST WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY INLAND...BUT S-SE WINDS BEHIND SEA BREEZE WILL
PROVIDE ADDED CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION TO PRODUCE ISO TO SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS...THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS INCREASED WITH PCP
WATER LEVELS UP TO 1.9 INCHES. THIS DRIER AIR COULD BE A PLAYER IN
BETTER DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS IN SHWRS/TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING PARAMETERS POINT TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH ML CAPE UP TO 2800 AND LI -9...K INDEX 36 AND
DCAPE UP TO 1100.

OVERALL EXPECT GREATER CHC OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STEERING
FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM MORE NW TO N PUSHING ANY DEVELOPMENT TOWARD
THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPS UP INTO THE 90S MOST
PLACES INLAND OF BEACHES WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE
70S TO PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES UP CLOSE TO 100.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET WITH
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL DROP
TO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS N GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRI MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN RETROGRADE AS IT MOVES BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SAT
AND SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
RIDGE SOUTHWARD WITH A WEDGE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS BY SAT. THIS ANOMALOUS WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
DAY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN DOES MOISTEN UP BY FRI EVE...BUT THE MOISTURE
IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE 5-9 KFT LAYER.

WILL TREND POPS HIGHER AS WE MOVE FROM FRI TO SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER COLUMNAR MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS NE FLOW INCREASES. WILL CAP POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT AS
SIGNALS SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS REMAIN MIXED. HIGHER POPS MAY BE
WARRANTED...AT SOME POINT...BUT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR S AND SE WILL MOVE BACK TO THE N AND W.

FRI STILL LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA ON SAT AND HIGHS THAT DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. LOWS AROUND 70 FRI NIGHT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERHEAD
SUN-TUE AS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH GETS STUCK BENEATH A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO BE PUSHED MUCH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...ENOUGH RESIDUAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND FORCING ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ON TUESDAY...WILL CREATE STILL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST POP SHOULD STILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COAST...BUT WIDESPREAD HIGH QPF SEEMS UNLIKELY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY WEDNESDAY...AND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FL/GA COAST...WED/THU WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. EXPECT TEMPS
WED/THU TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS SUN- TUE THANKS TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COASTAL TERMINALS
AND KLBT SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTED
COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH LACK OF HEATING
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IF RAINFALL OCCURS.
ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR.

AFTER SUNRISE ANY IFR AT KLBT/KFLO SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING.
COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING
MAINLY AT KILM. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...AND
NW-N AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT KCRE/KMYR
BY LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS TROUGH REMAINS OVER INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS
WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. EXPECT MORE OF
AN ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY PUSH ABOUT 10 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BENIGN...BASICALLY 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A LAND BREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH AN
OFFSHORE BIAS FRI MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
FRI NIGHT AND THEN WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP. A MODEST NE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FRI NIGHT AND THEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL BUILD TO MAINLY
3 FT SAT AND SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS LONG BAY WHERE THE FETCH IS
SEVERELY LIMITED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST
WILL CREATE NE WINDS SUN AND MON...BEFORE THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION TO E/SE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT. AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY/TUESDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 10 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUNDAY...WITH 2- 4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS FORMED THROUGH A 5 SEC NE WIND
WAVE. SEAS WILL FALL IN TANDEM WITH THE EASING WINDS
MON/TUE...BECOMING 1-3 FT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 031904
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WAS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
TROUGH WITH DEWPOINT DOWN TO THE MID 60S JUST WEST NORTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE EXITED THE HATTERAS COAST THIS MORNING
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER NRN GA.
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WERE MORE NORTHERLY WITH DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NC/VA BORDER THIS MORNING.
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY WHICH WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE A GREATER DOWNSLOPE PUSH AND WARMER TEMPS FOR OUR
AREA TODAY.

HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MARLBORO TO LUMBERTON AND ACROSS TO INLAND PENDER COUNTY...WITH
READINGS UP ABOVE 70 MOST PLACES. THIS TROUGH ORIENTED MORE WEST
TO EAST WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY INLAND...BUT S-SE WINDS BEHIND SEA BREEZE WILL
PROVIDE ADDED CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION TO PRODUCE ISO TO SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS...THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS INCREASED WITH PCP
WATER LEVELS UP TO 1.9 INCHES. THIS DRIER AIR COULD BE A PLAYER IN
BETTER DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS IN SHWRS/TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING PARAMETERS POINT TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH ML CAPE UP TO 2800 AND LI -9...K INDEX 36 AND
DCAPE UP TO 1100.

OVERALL EXPECT GREATER CHC OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STEERING
FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM MORE NW TO N PUSHING ANY DEVELOPMENT TOWARD
THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPS UP INTO THE 90S MOST
PLACES INLAND OF BEACHES WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE
70S TO PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES UP CLOSE TO 100.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET WITH
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL DROP
TO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS N GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRI MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN RETROGRADE AS IT MOVES BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SAT
AND SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
RIDGE SOUTHWARD WITH A WEDGE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS BY SAT. THIS ANOMALOUS WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
DAY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN DOES MOISTEN UP BY FRI EVE...BUT THE MOISTURE
IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE 5-9 KFT LAYER.

WILL TREND POPS HIGHER AS WE MOVE FROM FRI TO SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER COLUMNAR MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS NE FLOW INCREASES. WILL CAP POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT AS
SIGNALS SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS REMAIN MIXED. HIGHER POPS MAY BE
WARRANTED...AT SOME POINT...BUT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR S AND SE WILL MOVE BACK TO THE N AND W.

FRI STILL LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA ON SAT AND HIGHS THAT DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. LOWS AROUND 70 FRI NIGHT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERHEAD
SUN-TUE AS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH GETS STUCK BENEATH A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO BE PUSHED MUCH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...ENOUGH RESIDUAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND FORCING ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ON TUESDAY...WILL CREATE STILL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST POP SHOULD STILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COAST...BUT WIDESPREAD HIGH QPF SEEMS UNLIKELY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY WEDNESDAY...AND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FL/GA COAST...WED/THU WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. EXPECT TEMPS
WED/THU TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS SUN- TUE THANKS TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COASTAL TERMINALS
AND KLBT SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTED
COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH LACK OF HEATING
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IF RAINFALL OCCURS.
ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR.

AFTER SUNRISE ANY IFR AT KLBT/KFLO SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING.
COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING
MAINLY AT KILM. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...AND
NW-N AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT KCRE/KMYR
BY LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS TROUGH REMAINS OVER INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS
WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. EXPECT MORE OF
AN ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY PUSH ABOUT 10 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BENIGN...BASICALLY 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A LAND BREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH AN
OFFSHORE BIAS FRI MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
FRI NIGHT AND THEN WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP. A MODEST NE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FRI NIGHT AND THEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL BUILD TO MAINLY
3 FT SAT AND SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS LONG BAY WHERE THE FETCH IS
SEVERELY LIMITED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST
WILL CREATE NE WINDS SUN AND MON...BEFORE THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION TO E/SE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT. AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY/TUESDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 10 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUNDAY...WITH 2- 4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS FORMED THROUGH A 5 SEC NE WIND
WAVE. SEAS WILL FALL IN TANDEM WITH THE EASING WINDS
MON/TUE...BECOMING 1-3 FT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 031825
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
225 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WAS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
TROUGH WITH DEWPOINT DOWN TO THE MID 60S JUST WEST NORTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE EXITED THE HATTERAS COAST THIS MORNING
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER NRN GA.
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WERE MORE NORTHERLY WITH DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NC/VA BORDER THIS MORNING.
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY WHICH WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE A GREATER DOWNSLOPE PUSH AND WARMER TEMPS FOR OUR
AREA TODAY.

HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MARLBORO TO LUMBERTON AND ACROSS TO INLAND PENDER COUNTY...WITH
READINGS UP ABOVE 70 MOST PLACES. THIS TROUGH ORIENTED MORE WEST
TO EAST WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY INLAND...BUT S-SE WINDS BEHIND SEA BREEZE WILL
PROVIDE ADDED CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION TO PRODUCE ISO TO SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS...THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS INCREASED WITH PCP
WATER LEVELS UP TO 1.9 INCHES. THIS DRIER AIR COULD BE A PLAYER IN
BETTER DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS IN SHWRS/TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING PARAMETERS POINT TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH ML CAPE UP TO 2800 AND LI -9...K INDEX 36 AND
DCAPE UP TO 1100.

OVERALL EXPECT GREATER CHC OF DIURNAL SHWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STEERING
FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM MORE NW TO N PUSHING ANY DEVELOPMENT TOWARD
THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPS UP INTO THE 90S MOST
PLACES INLAND OF BEACHES WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE
70S TO PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES UP CLOSE TO 100.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET WITH
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL DROP
TO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COASTAL TERMINALS AND
KLBT SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTED
COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH LACK OF HEATING
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IF RAINFALL OCCURS.
ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR.

AFTER SUNRISE ANY IFR AT KLBT/KFLO SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING.
COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING
...MAINLY AT KILM. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...AND
NW-N AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT KCRE/KMYR BY
LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS TROUGH REMAINS OVER INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS
WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. EXPECT MORE OF
AN ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY PUSH ABOUT 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
MORE OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN BENIGN...BASICALLY 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 031825
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
225 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WAS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
TROUGH WITH DEWPOINT DOWN TO THE MID 60S JUST WEST NORTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE EXITED THE HATTERAS COAST THIS MORNING
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER NRN GA.
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WERE MORE NORTHERLY WITH DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NC/VA BORDER THIS MORNING.
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY WHICH WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE A GREATER DOWNSLOPE PUSH AND WARMER TEMPS FOR OUR
AREA TODAY.

HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MARLBORO TO LUMBERTON AND ACROSS TO INLAND PENDER COUNTY...WITH
READINGS UP ABOVE 70 MOST PLACES. THIS TROUGH ORIENTED MORE WEST
TO EAST WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY INLAND...BUT S-SE WINDS BEHIND SEA BREEZE WILL
PROVIDE ADDED CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION TO PRODUCE ISO TO SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS...THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS INCREASED WITH PCP
WATER LEVELS UP TO 1.9 INCHES. THIS DRIER AIR COULD BE A PLAYER IN
BETTER DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS IN SHWRS/TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING PARAMETERS POINT TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH ML CAPE UP TO 2800 AND LI -9...K INDEX 36 AND
DCAPE UP TO 1100.

OVERALL EXPECT GREATER CHC OF DIURNAL SHWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STEERING
FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM MORE NW TO N PUSHING ANY DEVELOPMENT TOWARD
THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPS UP INTO THE 90S MOST
PLACES INLAND OF BEACHES WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE
70S TO PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES UP CLOSE TO 100.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET WITH
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL DROP
TO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COASTAL TERMINALS AND
KLBT SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTED
COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH LACK OF HEATING
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IF RAINFALL OCCURS.
ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR.

AFTER SUNRISE ANY IFR AT KLBT/KFLO SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING.
COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING
...MAINLY AT KILM. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...AND
NW-N AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT KCRE/KMYR BY
LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS TROUGH REMAINS OVER INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS
WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. EXPECT MORE OF
AN ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY PUSH ABOUT 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
MORE OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN BENIGN...BASICALLY 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 031825
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
225 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WAS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
TROUGH WITH DEWPOINT DOWN TO THE MID 60S JUST WEST NORTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE EXITED THE HATTERAS COAST THIS MORNING
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER NRN GA.
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WERE MORE NORTHERLY WITH DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NC/VA BORDER THIS MORNING.
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY WHICH WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE A GREATER DOWNSLOPE PUSH AND WARMER TEMPS FOR OUR
AREA TODAY.

HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MARLBORO TO LUMBERTON AND ACROSS TO INLAND PENDER COUNTY...WITH
READINGS UP ABOVE 70 MOST PLACES. THIS TROUGH ORIENTED MORE WEST
TO EAST WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY INLAND...BUT S-SE WINDS BEHIND SEA BREEZE WILL
PROVIDE ADDED CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION TO PRODUCE ISO TO SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS...THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS INCREASED WITH PCP
WATER LEVELS UP TO 1.9 INCHES. THIS DRIER AIR COULD BE A PLAYER IN
BETTER DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS IN SHWRS/TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING PARAMETERS POINT TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH ML CAPE UP TO 2800 AND LI -9...K INDEX 36 AND
DCAPE UP TO 1100.

OVERALL EXPECT GREATER CHC OF DIURNAL SHWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STEERING
FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM MORE NW TO N PUSHING ANY DEVELOPMENT TOWARD
THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPS UP INTO THE 90S MOST
PLACES INLAND OF BEACHES WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE
70S TO PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES UP CLOSE TO 100.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET WITH
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL DROP
TO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COASTAL TERMINALS AND
KLBT SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTED
COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH LACK OF HEATING
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IF RAINFALL OCCURS.
ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR.

AFTER SUNRISE ANY IFR AT KLBT/KFLO SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING.
COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING
...MAINLY AT KILM. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...AND
NW-N AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT KCRE/KMYR BY
LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS TROUGH REMAINS OVER INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS
WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. EXPECT MORE OF
AN ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY PUSH ABOUT 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
MORE OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN BENIGN...BASICALLY 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 031403
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1003 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE WAS EXITING THE HATTERAS
COAST THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE OVER KY/TN. WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WERE MORE
NORTHERLY WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NC/VA
BORDER THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE
WESTERLY WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE A GREATER DOWNSLOPE PUSH AND
WARMER TEMPS FOR OUR AREA TODAY. HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH READINGS UP ABOVE 70 MOST PLACES. THIS TROUGH ORIENTED
MORE WEST TO EAST WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ADDED CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION. THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW SHOULD ALSO
KEEP SEA BREEZE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND EXPECT THIS TO BE A PLAYER
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY
INLAND. ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS...THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS INCREASED WITH
PCP WATER LEVELS UP TO 1.9 INCHES. THIS DRIER AIR COULD BE A
PLAYER IN BETTER DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS IN SHWRS/TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDING PARAMETERS POINT TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH ML CAPE UP TO 2800 AND LI -9...K INDEX 36 AND
DCAPE UP TO 1100.

OVERALL EXPECT GREATER CHC OF SCT DIURNAL SHWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STEERING
FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM MORE NW TO N PUSHING ANY DEVELOPMENT TOWARD
THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPS UP INTO THE 90S MOST
PLACES INLAND OF BEACHES WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE
70S TO PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES UP CLOSE TO 100.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET WITH
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL DROP
TO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MVFR VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR BY
13Z. OTHERWISE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE VFR THROUGH 18Z. ANY
POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE NW-E OF KILM AND WELL S OF KMYR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT W-NW THIS
MORNING...BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING.

PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
LOCATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE...ALONG AND N OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING LYING ROUGHLY S OF
KILM TO NEAR KLBT...AND ALONG A WEAK FRONT N OF KLBT/KILM.
STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE NW THUS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
CHANCE THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD BE AFFECTED BY ANY CONVECTION.
EXPECTED COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW... AND UPDATE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS IF NEEDED AT 18Z.

WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH LACK OF HEATING THINK THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
TODAY. ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR ESPECIALLY IF RAIN
OCCURS TODAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 KTS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK
TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KILM 031142
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING
OFFSHORE NORTHERN PENDER COUNTY. THAT SHOULD END THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...REMOTE THOUGH IT MAY HAVE BEEN...UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION UP NORTH MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE NOT STRONG...BUT AT 5 TO
10 KTS ARE CREATING A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
STILL TO OUR NORTH BUT MAY SCRAPE PENDER COUNTY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE.

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER DAY. PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STRENGTHENS
TODAY AND ALSO EXPECT THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO
SET UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH P/W
VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2 INCHES...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. INITIAL FOCUS OF CONVECTION...FOR LACK OF AN OTHER
STRONG TRIGGERS...WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
AT AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS PROJECTED
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MVFR VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR BY
13Z. OTHERWISE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE VFR THROUGH 18Z. ANY
POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE NW-E OF KILM AND WELL S OF KMYR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT W-NW THIS
MORNING...BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING.

PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
LOCATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE...ALONG AND N OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING LYING ROUGHLY S OF
KILM TO NEAR KLBT...AND ALONG A WEAK FRONT N OF KLBT/KILM.
STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE NW THUS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
CHANCE THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD BE AFFECTED BY ANY CONVECTION.
EXPECTED COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW... AND UPDATE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS IF NEEDED AT 18Z.

WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH LACK OF HEATING THINK THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
TODAY. ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR ESPECIALLY IF RAIN
OCCURS TODAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 KTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE
2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 031142
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING
OFFSHORE NORTHERN PENDER COUNTY. THAT SHOULD END THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...REMOTE THOUGH IT MAY HAVE BEEN...UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION UP NORTH MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE NOT STRONG...BUT AT 5 TO
10 KTS ARE CREATING A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
STILL TO OUR NORTH BUT MAY SCRAPE PENDER COUNTY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE.

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER DAY. PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STRENGTHENS
TODAY AND ALSO EXPECT THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO
SET UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH P/W
VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2 INCHES...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. INITIAL FOCUS OF CONVECTION...FOR LACK OF AN OTHER
STRONG TRIGGERS...WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
AT AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS PROJECTED
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MVFR VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR BY
13Z. OTHERWISE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE VFR THROUGH 18Z. ANY
POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE NW-E OF KILM AND WELL S OF KMYR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT W-NW THIS
MORNING...BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING.

PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
LOCATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE...ALONG AND N OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING LYING ROUGHLY S OF
KILM TO NEAR KLBT...AND ALONG A WEAK FRONT N OF KLBT/KILM.
STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE NW THUS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
CHANCE THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD BE AFFECTED BY ANY CONVECTION.
EXPECTED COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW... AND UPDATE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS IF NEEDED AT 18Z.

WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH LACK OF HEATING THINK THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
TODAY. ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR ESPECIALLY IF RAIN
OCCURS TODAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 KTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE
2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 031142
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING
OFFSHORE NORTHERN PENDER COUNTY. THAT SHOULD END THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...REMOTE THOUGH IT MAY HAVE BEEN...UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION UP NORTH MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE NOT STRONG...BUT AT 5 TO
10 KTS ARE CREATING A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
STILL TO OUR NORTH BUT MAY SCRAPE PENDER COUNTY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE.

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER DAY. PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STRENGTHENS
TODAY AND ALSO EXPECT THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO
SET UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH P/W
VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2 INCHES...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. INITIAL FOCUS OF CONVECTION...FOR LACK OF AN OTHER
STRONG TRIGGERS...WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
AT AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS PROJECTED
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MVFR VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR BY
13Z. OTHERWISE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE VFR THROUGH 18Z. ANY
POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE NW-E OF KILM AND WELL S OF KMYR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT W-NW THIS
MORNING...BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING.

PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
LOCATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE...ALONG AND N OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING LYING ROUGHLY S OF
KILM TO NEAR KLBT...AND ALONG A WEAK FRONT N OF KLBT/KILM.
STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE NW THUS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
CHANCE THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD BE AFFECTED BY ANY CONVECTION.
EXPECTED COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW... AND UPDATE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS IF NEEDED AT 18Z.

WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH LACK OF HEATING THINK THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
TODAY. ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR ESPECIALLY IF RAIN
OCCURS TODAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 KTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE
2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 031008
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
608 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING
OFFSHORE NORTHERN PENDER COUNTY. THAT SHOULD END THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...REMOTE THOUGH IT MAY HAVE BEEN...UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION UP NORTH MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE NOT STRONG...BUT AT 5 TO
10 KTS ARE CREATING A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
STILL TO OUR NORTH BUT MAY SCRAPE PENDER COUNTY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE.

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER DAY. PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STRENGTHENS
TODAY AND ALSO EXPECT THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO
SET UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH P/W
VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2 INCHES...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. INITIAL FOCUS OF CONVECTION...FOR LACK OF AN OTHER
STRONG TRIGGERS...WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
AT AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS PROJECTED
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
SOME CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE
VORT MAX DROPPING IN FROM VIRGINIA. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY 10-11Z AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM MODEL AS THE GFS
SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. TOOK OUT THE TEMPO
LOWER FOG AT LBT AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO
RADIATE EFFECTIVELY. THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RESULTANT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 KTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE
2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 031008
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
608 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING
OFFSHORE NORTHERN PENDER COUNTY. THAT SHOULD END THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...REMOTE THOUGH IT MAY HAVE BEEN...UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION UP NORTH MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE NOT STRONG...BUT AT 5 TO
10 KTS ARE CREATING A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
STILL TO OUR NORTH BUT MAY SCRAPE PENDER COUNTY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE.

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER DAY. PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STRENGTHENS
TODAY AND ALSO EXPECT THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO
SET UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH P/W
VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2 INCHES...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. INITIAL FOCUS OF CONVECTION...FOR LACK OF AN OTHER
STRONG TRIGGERS...WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
AT AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS PROJECTED
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
SOME CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE
VORT MAX DROPPING IN FROM VIRGINIA. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY 10-11Z AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM MODEL AS THE GFS
SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. TOOK OUT THE TEMPO
LOWER FOG AT LBT AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO
RADIATE EFFECTIVELY. THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RESULTANT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 KTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE
2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 031008
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
608 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING
OFFSHORE NORTHERN PENDER COUNTY. THAT SHOULD END THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...REMOTE THOUGH IT MAY HAVE BEEN...UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION UP NORTH MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE NOT STRONG...BUT AT 5 TO
10 KTS ARE CREATING A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
STILL TO OUR NORTH BUT MAY SCRAPE PENDER COUNTY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE.

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER DAY. PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STRENGTHENS
TODAY AND ALSO EXPECT THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO
SET UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH P/W
VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2 INCHES...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. INITIAL FOCUS OF CONVECTION...FOR LACK OF AN OTHER
STRONG TRIGGERS...WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
AT AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS PROJECTED
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
SOME CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE
VORT MAX DROPPING IN FROM VIRGINIA. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY 10-11Z AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM MODEL AS THE GFS
SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. TOOK OUT THE TEMPO
LOWER FOG AT LBT AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO
RADIATE EFFECTIVELY. THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RESULTANT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 KTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE
2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 030726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION UP NORTH
MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE
NOT STRONG...BUT AT 5 TO 10 KTS ARE CREATING A NOTICEABLE WIND
SHIFT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION STILL TO OUR NORTH BUT MAY SCRAPE
PENDER COUNTY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER DAY. PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STRENGTHENS
TODAY AND ALSO EXPECT THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO
SET UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH P/W
VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2 INCHES...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. INITIAL FOCUS OF CONVECTION...FOR LACK OF AN OTHER
STRONG TRIGGERS...WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
AT AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS PROJECTED
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
SOME CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE
VORT MAX DROPPING IN FROM VIRGINIA. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY 10-11Z AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM MODEL AS THE GFS
SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. TOOK OUT THE TEMPO
LOWER FOG AT LBT AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO
RADIATE EFFECTIVELY. THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RESULTANT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 KTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10
KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SEAS WILL
STAY IN THE 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 030726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION UP NORTH
MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE
NOT STRONG...BUT AT 5 TO 10 KTS ARE CREATING A NOTICEABLE WIND
SHIFT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION STILL TO OUR NORTH BUT MAY SCRAPE
PENDER COUNTY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER DAY. PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STRENGTHENS
TODAY AND ALSO EXPECT THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO
SET UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH P/W
VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2 INCHES...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. INITIAL FOCUS OF CONVECTION...FOR LACK OF AN OTHER
STRONG TRIGGERS...WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
AT AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS PROJECTED
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
SOME CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE
VORT MAX DROPPING IN FROM VIRGINIA. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY 10-11Z AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM MODEL AS THE GFS
SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. TOOK OUT THE TEMPO
LOWER FOG AT LBT AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO
RADIATE EFFECTIVELY. THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RESULTANT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 KTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10
KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SEAS WILL
STAY IN THE 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 030726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION UP NORTH
MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE
NOT STRONG...BUT AT 5 TO 10 KTS ARE CREATING A NOTICEABLE WIND
SHIFT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION STILL TO OUR NORTH BUT MAY SCRAPE
PENDER COUNTY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER DAY. PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STRENGTHENS
TODAY AND ALSO EXPECT THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO
SET UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH P/W
VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2 INCHES...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. INITIAL FOCUS OF CONVECTION...FOR LACK OF AN OTHER
STRONG TRIGGERS...WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
AT AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS PROJECTED
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
SOME CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE
VORT MAX DROPPING IN FROM VIRGINIA. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY 10-11Z AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM MODEL AS THE GFS
SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. TOOK OUT THE TEMPO
LOWER FOG AT LBT AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO
RADIATE EFFECTIVELY. THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RESULTANT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 KTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10
KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SEAS WILL
STAY IN THE 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 030726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION UP NORTH
MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE
NOT STRONG...BUT AT 5 TO 10 KTS ARE CREATING A NOTICEABLE WIND
SHIFT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION STILL TO OUR NORTH BUT MAY SCRAPE
PENDER COUNTY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER DAY. PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STRENGTHENS
TODAY AND ALSO EXPECT THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO
SET UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH P/W
VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2 INCHES...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. INITIAL FOCUS OF CONVECTION...FOR LACK OF AN OTHER
STRONG TRIGGERS...WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
AT AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS PROJECTED
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
SOME CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE
VORT MAX DROPPING IN FROM VIRGINIA. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY 10-11Z AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM MODEL AS THE GFS
SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. TOOK OUT THE TEMPO
LOWER FOG AT LBT AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO
RADIATE EFFECTIVELY. THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RESULTANT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 KTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10
KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SEAS WILL
STAY IN THE 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 030631
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...RADAR LOOPS AND OBS SHOW IMPRESSIVE GUST
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM STORM ACTIVITY TO
THE NORTH. EXPECT NO BIG IMPACTS...JUST A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
STILL POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH DROP INTO OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAS DEVELOPED A MASSED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH RALEIGH AND GREENVILLE AT
THIS TIME. A SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM ASHEBORO TO LEXINGTON
IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SURPRISINGLY
DEEP...THE RALEIGH RADAR SHOWS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING UP TO AROUND
7000 FEET NEAR GREENVILLE WHICH IS DEEP ENOUGH TO LIFT PARCELS AT
THE LFC. ODDS ARE STILL ABOUT 1-IN-4 TO 1-IN-5 CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN AND BURGAW.
A SMALL (20%) POP IS BEING MAINTAINED HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
70-75. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

CLOSELY WATCHING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NC SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE 500
MB COLD POOL CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA SHOULD NOT DIVE THIS FAR
SOUTH...A SURPRISING NUMBER OF MODELS STILL SHOW SHOWERS MAKING IT
INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA STARTING AROUND 3-4 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS WOULD NOT BE SURFACE- BASED CONVECTION BUT INSTEAD
ROOTED IN A LAYER AROUND 7000 FEET UP. LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-400
MB ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT SHOULD ANYTHING SURVIVE THAT LATE IT
COULD STILL HAVE THUNDER. TO BLEND WITH NWS RAH AND MHX I HAVE
ADDED A 20 POP LATE TONIGHT FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO
BURGAW...OTHERWISE VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
SOME CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE
VORT MAX DROPPING IN FROM VIRGINIA. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY 10-11Z AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM MODEL AS THE GFS
SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. TOOK OUT THE TEMPO
LOWER FOG AT LBT AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO
RADIATE EFFECTIVELY. THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RESULTANT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...ABSOLUTELY NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS LATEST EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL
WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY.
BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY
10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DL/REK





000
FXUS62 KILM 030631
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...RADAR LOOPS AND OBS SHOW IMPRESSIVE GUST
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM STORM ACTIVITY TO
THE NORTH. EXPECT NO BIG IMPACTS...JUST A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
STILL POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH DROP INTO OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAS DEVELOPED A MASSED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH RALEIGH AND GREENVILLE AT
THIS TIME. A SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM ASHEBORO TO LEXINGTON
IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SURPRISINGLY
DEEP...THE RALEIGH RADAR SHOWS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING UP TO AROUND
7000 FEET NEAR GREENVILLE WHICH IS DEEP ENOUGH TO LIFT PARCELS AT
THE LFC. ODDS ARE STILL ABOUT 1-IN-4 TO 1-IN-5 CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN AND BURGAW.
A SMALL (20%) POP IS BEING MAINTAINED HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
70-75. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

CLOSELY WATCHING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NC SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE 500
MB COLD POOL CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA SHOULD NOT DIVE THIS FAR
SOUTH...A SURPRISING NUMBER OF MODELS STILL SHOW SHOWERS MAKING IT
INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA STARTING AROUND 3-4 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS WOULD NOT BE SURFACE- BASED CONVECTION BUT INSTEAD
ROOTED IN A LAYER AROUND 7000 FEET UP. LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-400
MB ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT SHOULD ANYTHING SURVIVE THAT LATE IT
COULD STILL HAVE THUNDER. TO BLEND WITH NWS RAH AND MHX I HAVE
ADDED A 20 POP LATE TONIGHT FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO
BURGAW...OTHERWISE VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
SOME CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE
VORT MAX DROPPING IN FROM VIRGINIA. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY 10-11Z AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM MODEL AS THE GFS
SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. TOOK OUT THE TEMPO
LOWER FOG AT LBT AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO
RADIATE EFFECTIVELY. THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RESULTANT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...ABSOLUTELY NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS LATEST EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL
WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY.
BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY
10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DL/REK





000
FXUS62 KILM 030543
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
143 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...RADAR LOOPS AND OBS SHOW IMPRESSIVE GUST
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM STORM ACTIVITY TO
THE NORTH. EXPECT NO BIG IMPACTS...JUST A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
STILL POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH DROP INTO OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAS DEVELOPED A MASSED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH RALEIGH AND GREENVILLE AT
THIS TIME. A SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM ASHEBORO TO LEXINGTON
IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SURPRISINGLY
DEEP...THE RALEIGH RADAR SHOWS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING UP TO AROUND
7000 FEET NEAR GREENVILLE WHICH IS DEEP ENOUGH TO LIFT PARCELS AT
THE LFC. ODDS ARE STILL ABOUT 1-IN-4 TO 1-IN-5 CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN AND BURGAW.
A SMALL (20%) POP IS BEING MAINTAINED HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
70-75. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

CLOSELY WATCHING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NC SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE 500
MB COLD POOL CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA SHOULD NOT DIVE THIS FAR
SOUTH...A SURPRISING NUMBER OF MODELS STILL SHOW SHOWERS MAKING IT
INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA STARTING AROUND 3-4 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS WOULD NOT BE SURFACE- BASED CONVECTION BUT INSTEAD
ROOTED IN A LAYER AROUND 7000 FEET UP. LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-400
MB ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT SHOULD ANYTHING SURVIVE THAT LATE IT
COULD STILL HAVE THUNDER. TO BLEND WITH NWS RAH AND MHX I HAVE
ADDED A 20 POP LATE TONIGHT FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO
BURGAW...OTHERWISE VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS MIDDLE
AMERICA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST THU INTO FRI. DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN FLOW...TO IMPACT THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO BRING
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL STRENGTHEN THU AFTERNOON AND
THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST LIFT...THUS
ALLOWING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING INCREASES
THE INSTABILITY.

THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DEPTH ARE STILL EXPECTED THU/THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE EVEN FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. HOWEVER...HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ARE BETTER
ABLE TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.

THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THU WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
MID 90S WITH LOWER 90S VERY NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THU
NIGHT AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LIKELY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH CREATES HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS
PERIOD...AND IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND SEASONABLE LOWS.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS FROM THE
NE...SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND CUT OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SIT BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT IS BLOCKED BY RIDGING ON ALL SIDES. BENEATH THIS
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MAINTAINING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW MUCH QPF IS
EXPECTED SINCE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF ERIKAS REMNANTS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WPC QPF SHOWS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HEAVIEST ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ERIKAS REMNANTS
WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY WEDNESDAY AND LIFT TO THE NORTH
AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE WEAKENS...THIS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
SOME CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE
VORT MAX DROPPING IN FROM VIRGINIA. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY 10-11Z AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM MODEL AS THE GFS
SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. TOOK OUT THE TEMPO
LOWER FOG AT LBT AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO
RADIATE EFFECTIVELY. THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RESULTANT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...ABSOLUTELY NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS LATEST EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL
WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY.
BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY
10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TIGHTEN...
AND WITH THAT WE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. THE HIGHEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRI NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 15
TO 20 KT AS A NE SURGE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE N.

A LAND BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND THU MORNING. THE
SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT
THU AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH 3 FT SEAS
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
STRONGLY SAT/SUN BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HIGH BUILDS SW FROM NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE
SURGE...DRIVING WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY ON MONDAY TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DOMINATED BY A
NE WIND WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL MASK A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT EARLY SATURDAY...RISING TO
3-4 FT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE NE FETCH PERSISTS. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL THEN EASE A BIT MONDAY ON THE SLACKENING WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/JDW/RGZ/SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 030543
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
143 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...RADAR LOOPS AND OBS SHOW IMPRESSIVE GUST
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM STORM ACTIVITY TO
THE NORTH. EXPECT NO BIG IMPACTS...JUST A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
STILL POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH DROP INTO OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAS DEVELOPED A MASSED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH RALEIGH AND GREENVILLE AT
THIS TIME. A SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM ASHEBORO TO LEXINGTON
IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SURPRISINGLY
DEEP...THE RALEIGH RADAR SHOWS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING UP TO AROUND
7000 FEET NEAR GREENVILLE WHICH IS DEEP ENOUGH TO LIFT PARCELS AT
THE LFC. ODDS ARE STILL ABOUT 1-IN-4 TO 1-IN-5 CONVECTION WILL
SURVIVE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN AND BURGAW.
A SMALL (20%) POP IS BEING MAINTAINED HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
70-75. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

CLOSELY WATCHING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NC SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE 500
MB COLD POOL CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA SHOULD NOT DIVE THIS FAR
SOUTH...A SURPRISING NUMBER OF MODELS STILL SHOW SHOWERS MAKING IT
INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA STARTING AROUND 3-4 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS WOULD NOT BE SURFACE- BASED CONVECTION BUT INSTEAD
ROOTED IN A LAYER AROUND 7000 FEET UP. LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-400
MB ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT SHOULD ANYTHING SURVIVE THAT LATE IT
COULD STILL HAVE THUNDER. TO BLEND WITH NWS RAH AND MHX I HAVE
ADDED A 20 POP LATE TONIGHT FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO
BURGAW...OTHERWISE VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS MIDDLE
AMERICA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST THU INTO FRI. DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN FLOW...TO IMPACT THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO BRING
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL STRENGTHEN THU AFTERNOON AND
THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST LIFT...THUS
ALLOWING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING INCREASES
THE INSTABILITY.

THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DEPTH ARE STILL EXPECTED THU/THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE EVEN FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. HOWEVER...HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ARE BETTER
ABLE TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.

THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THU WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
MID 90S WITH LOWER 90S VERY NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THU
NIGHT AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LIKELY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH CREATES HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS
PERIOD...AND IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND SEASONABLE LOWS.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS FROM THE
NE...SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND CUT OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SIT BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT IS BLOCKED BY RIDGING ON ALL SIDES. BENEATH THIS
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MAINTAINING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW MUCH QPF IS
EXPECTED SINCE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF ERIKAS REMNANTS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WPC QPF SHOWS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HEAVIEST ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ERIKAS REMNANTS
WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY WEDNESDAY AND LIFT TO THE NORTH
AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE WEAKENS...THIS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
SOME CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE
VORT MAX DROPPING IN FROM VIRGINIA. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY 10-11Z AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM MODEL AS THE GFS
SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. TOOK OUT THE TEMPO
LOWER FOG AT LBT AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO
RADIATE EFFECTIVELY. THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RESULTANT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...ABSOLUTELY NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS LATEST EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL
WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY.
BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY
10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TIGHTEN...
AND WITH THAT WE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. THE HIGHEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRI NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 15
TO 20 KT AS A NE SURGE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE N.

A LAND BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND THU MORNING. THE
SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT
THU AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH 3 FT SEAS
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
STRONGLY SAT/SUN BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HIGH BUILDS SW FROM NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE
SURGE...DRIVING WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY ON MONDAY TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DOMINATED BY A
NE WIND WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL MASK A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT EARLY SATURDAY...RISING TO
3-4 FT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE NE FETCH PERSISTS. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL THEN EASE A BIT MONDAY ON THE SLACKENING WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/JDW/RGZ/SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 030247
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1047 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
HAS DEVELOPED A MASSED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
RALEIGH AND GREENVILLE AT THIS TIME. A SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS
FROM ASHEBORO TO LEXINGTON IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS SURPRISINGLY DEEP...THE RALEIGH RADAR SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 7000 FEET NEAR GREENVILLE WHICH IS
DEEP ENOUGH TO LIFT PARCELS AT THE LFC. ODDS ARE STILL ABOUT
1-IN-4 TO 1-IN-5 CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN AND BURGAW. A SMALL (20%) POP IS BEING
MAINTAINED HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS 70-75. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

CLOSELY WATCHING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NC SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE 500
MB COLD POOL CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA SHOULD NOT DIVE THIS FAR
SOUTH...A SURPRISING NUMBER OF MODELS STILL SHOW SHOWERS MAKING IT
INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA STARTING AROUND 3-4 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS WOULD NOT BE SURFACE- BASED CONVECTION BUT INSTEAD
ROOTED IN A LAYER AROUND 7000 FEET UP. LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-400
MB ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT SHOULD ANYTHING SURVIVE THAT LATE IT
COULD STILL HAVE THUNDER. TO BLEND WITH NWS RAH AND MHX I HAVE
ADDED A 20 POP LATE TONIGHT FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO
BURGAW...OTHERWISE VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS MIDDLE
AMERICA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST THU INTO FRI. DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN FLOW...TO IMPACT THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO BRING
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL STRENGTHEN THU AFTERNOON AND
THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST LIFT...THUS
ALLOWING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING INCREASES
THE INSTABILITY.

THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DEPTH ARE STILL EXPECTED THU/THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE EVEN FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. HOWEVER...HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ARE BETTER
ABLE TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.

THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THU WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
MID 90S WITH LOWER 90S VERY NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THU
NIGHT AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LIKELY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH CREATES HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS
PERIOD...AND IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND SEASONABLE LOWS.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS FROM THE
NE...SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND CUT OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SIT BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT IS BLOCKED BY RIDGING ON ALL SIDES. BENEATH THIS
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MAINTAINING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW MUCH QPF IS
EXPECTED SINCE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF ERIKAS REMNANTS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WPC QPF SHOWS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HEAVIEST ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ERIKAS REMNANTS
WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY WEDNESDAY AND LIFT TO THE NORTH
AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE WEAKENS...THIS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST RESULTANT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
NEARLY CALM SOUTHWEST FLOW IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. A VORT MAX
IN VIRGINIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH IT. THIS CONVECTION MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS TO WARRANT A VCSH MENTION. THE CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 09Z. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM
MODEL AS THE GFS SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL
WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY.
BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY
10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TIGHTEN...
AND WITH THAT WE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. THE HIGHEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRI NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 15
TO 20 KT AS A NE SURGE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE N.

A LAND BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND THU MORNING. THE
SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT
THU AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH 3 FT SEAS
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
STRONGLY SAT/SUN BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HIGH BUILDS SW FROM NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE
SURGE...DRIVING WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY ON MONDAY TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DOMINATED BY A
NE WIND WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL MASK A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT EARLY SATURDAY...RISING TO
3-4 FT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE NE FETCH PERSISTS. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL THEN EASE A BIT MONDAY ON THE SLACKENING WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...TRA/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 030247
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1047 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
HAS DEVELOPED A MASSED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
RALEIGH AND GREENVILLE AT THIS TIME. A SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS
FROM ASHEBORO TO LEXINGTON IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS SURPRISINGLY DEEP...THE RALEIGH RADAR SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 7000 FEET NEAR GREENVILLE WHICH IS
DEEP ENOUGH TO LIFT PARCELS AT THE LFC. ODDS ARE STILL ABOUT
1-IN-4 TO 1-IN-5 CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN AND BURGAW. A SMALL (20%) POP IS BEING
MAINTAINED HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS 70-75. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

CLOSELY WATCHING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NC SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE 500
MB COLD POOL CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA SHOULD NOT DIVE THIS FAR
SOUTH...A SURPRISING NUMBER OF MODELS STILL SHOW SHOWERS MAKING IT
INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA STARTING AROUND 3-4 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS WOULD NOT BE SURFACE- BASED CONVECTION BUT INSTEAD
ROOTED IN A LAYER AROUND 7000 FEET UP. LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-400
MB ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT SHOULD ANYTHING SURVIVE THAT LATE IT
COULD STILL HAVE THUNDER. TO BLEND WITH NWS RAH AND MHX I HAVE
ADDED A 20 POP LATE TONIGHT FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO
BURGAW...OTHERWISE VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS MIDDLE
AMERICA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST THU INTO FRI. DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN FLOW...TO IMPACT THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO BRING
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL STRENGTHEN THU AFTERNOON AND
THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST LIFT...THUS
ALLOWING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING INCREASES
THE INSTABILITY.

THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DEPTH ARE STILL EXPECTED THU/THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE EVEN FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. HOWEVER...HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ARE BETTER
ABLE TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.

THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THU WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
MID 90S WITH LOWER 90S VERY NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THU
NIGHT AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LIKELY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH CREATES HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS
PERIOD...AND IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND SEASONABLE LOWS.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS FROM THE
NE...SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND CUT OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SIT BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT IS BLOCKED BY RIDGING ON ALL SIDES. BENEATH THIS
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MAINTAINING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW MUCH QPF IS
EXPECTED SINCE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF ERIKAS REMNANTS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WPC QPF SHOWS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HEAVIEST ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ERIKAS REMNANTS
WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY WEDNESDAY AND LIFT TO THE NORTH
AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE WEAKENS...THIS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST RESULTANT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
NEARLY CALM SOUTHWEST FLOW IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. A VORT MAX
IN VIRGINIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH IT. THIS CONVECTION MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS TO WARRANT A VCSH MENTION. THE CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 09Z. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM
MODEL AS THE GFS SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL
WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY.
BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY
10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TIGHTEN...
AND WITH THAT WE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. THE HIGHEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRI NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 15
TO 20 KT AS A NE SURGE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE N.

A LAND BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND THU MORNING. THE
SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT
THU AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH 3 FT SEAS
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
STRONGLY SAT/SUN BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HIGH BUILDS SW FROM NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE
SURGE...DRIVING WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY ON MONDAY TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DOMINATED BY A
NE WIND WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL MASK A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT EARLY SATURDAY...RISING TO
3-4 FT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE NE FETCH PERSISTS. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL THEN EASE A BIT MONDAY ON THE SLACKENING WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...TRA/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 022306
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
706 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...CLOSELY WATCHING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NC SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE 500 MB COLD POOL CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA
SHOULD NOT DIVE THIS FAR SOUTH...A SURPRISING NUMBER OF MODELS
STILL SHOW SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA STARTING
AROUND 3-4 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS WOULD NOT BE SURFACE-
BASED CONVECTION BUT INSTEAD ROOTED IN A LAYER AROUND 7000 FEET
UP. LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-400 MB ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT SHOULD
ANYTHING SURVIVE THAT LATE IT COULD STILL HAVE THUNDER. TO BLEND
WITH NWS RAH AND MHX I HAVE ADDED A 20 POP LATE TONIGHT FROM
LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO BURGAW...OTHERWISE VERY FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WITH STRONG
HEATING AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS
SOARED ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND
SLOWLY IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP SHWRS AT BAY
FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...EXPECT FLATTER CU TO MIX WITH MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA BOUNDARY LATE
EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW STRAY
SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS MIDDLE
AMERICA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST THU INTO FRI. DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN FLOW...TO IMPACT THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO BRING
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL STRENGTHEN THU AFTERNOON AND
THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST LIFT...THUS
ALLOWING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING INCREASES
THE INSTABILITY.

THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DEPTH ARE STILL EXPECTED THU/THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE EVEN FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. HOWEVER...HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ARE BETTER
ABLE TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.

THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THU WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
MID 90S WITH LOWER 90S VERY NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THU
NIGHT AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LIKELY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH CREATES HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS
PERIOD...AND IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND SEASONABLE LOWS.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS FROM THE
NE...SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND CUT OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SIT BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT IS BLOCKED BY RIDGING ON ALL SIDES. BENEATH THIS
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MAINTAINING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW MUCH QPF IS
EXPECTED SINCE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF ERIKAS REMNANTS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WPC QPF SHOWS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HEAVIEST ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ERIKAS REMNANTS
WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY WEDNESDAY AND LIFT TO THE NORTH
AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE WEAKENS...THIS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST RESULTANT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
NEARLY CALM SOUTHWEST FLOW IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. A VORT MAX
IN VIRGINIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH IT. THIS CONVECTION MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS TO WARRANT A VCSH MENTION. THE CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 09Z. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM
MODEL AS THE GFS SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL
WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY.
BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY
10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TIGHTEN...
AND WITH THAT WE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. THE HIGHEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRI NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 15
TO 20 KT AS A NE SURGE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE N.

A LAND BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND THU MORNING. THE
SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT
THU AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH 3 FT SEAS
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
STRONGLY SAT/SUN BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HIGH BUILDS SW FROM NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE
SURGE...DRIVING WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY ON MONDAY TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DOMINATED BY A
NE WIND WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL MASK A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT EARLY SATURDAY...RISING TO
3-4 FT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE NE FETCH PERSISTS. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL THEN EASE A BIT MONDAY ON THE SLACKENING WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...TRA/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 022306
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
706 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...CLOSELY WATCHING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NC SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE 500 MB COLD POOL CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA
SHOULD NOT DIVE THIS FAR SOUTH...A SURPRISING NUMBER OF MODELS
STILL SHOW SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA STARTING
AROUND 3-4 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS WOULD NOT BE SURFACE-
BASED CONVECTION BUT INSTEAD ROOTED IN A LAYER AROUND 7000 FEET
UP. LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-400 MB ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT SHOULD
ANYTHING SURVIVE THAT LATE IT COULD STILL HAVE THUNDER. TO BLEND
WITH NWS RAH AND MHX I HAVE ADDED A 20 POP LATE TONIGHT FROM
LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO BURGAW...OTHERWISE VERY FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WITH STRONG
HEATING AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS
SOARED ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND
SLOWLY IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP SHWRS AT BAY
FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...EXPECT FLATTER CU TO MIX WITH MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA BOUNDARY LATE
EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW STRAY
SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS MIDDLE
AMERICA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST THU INTO FRI. DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN FLOW...TO IMPACT THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO BRING
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL STRENGTHEN THU AFTERNOON AND
THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST LIFT...THUS
ALLOWING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING INCREASES
THE INSTABILITY.

THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DEPTH ARE STILL EXPECTED THU/THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE EVEN FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. HOWEVER...HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ARE BETTER
ABLE TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.

THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THU WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
MID 90S WITH LOWER 90S VERY NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THU
NIGHT AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LIKELY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH CREATES HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS
PERIOD...AND IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND SEASONABLE LOWS.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS FROM THE
NE...SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND CUT OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SIT BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT IS BLOCKED BY RIDGING ON ALL SIDES. BENEATH THIS
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MAINTAINING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW MUCH QPF IS
EXPECTED SINCE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF ERIKAS REMNANTS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WPC QPF SHOWS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HEAVIEST ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ERIKAS REMNANTS
WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY WEDNESDAY AND LIFT TO THE NORTH
AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE WEAKENS...THIS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST RESULTANT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
NEARLY CALM SOUTHWEST FLOW IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. A VORT MAX
IN VIRGINIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH IT. THIS CONVECTION MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS TO WARRANT A VCSH MENTION. THE CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 09Z. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM
MODEL AS THE GFS SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL
WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY.
BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY
10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TIGHTEN...
AND WITH THAT WE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. THE HIGHEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRI NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 15
TO 20 KT AS A NE SURGE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE N.

A LAND BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND THU MORNING. THE
SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT
THU AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH 3 FT SEAS
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
STRONGLY SAT/SUN BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HIGH BUILDS SW FROM NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE
SURGE...DRIVING WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY ON MONDAY TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DOMINATED BY A
NE WIND WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL MASK A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT EARLY SATURDAY...RISING TO
3-4 FT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE NE FETCH PERSISTS. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL THEN EASE A BIT MONDAY ON THE SLACKENING WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...TRA/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 022306
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
706 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...CLOSELY WATCHING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NC SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE 500 MB COLD POOL CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA
SHOULD NOT DIVE THIS FAR SOUTH...A SURPRISING NUMBER OF MODELS
STILL SHOW SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA STARTING
AROUND 3-4 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS WOULD NOT BE SURFACE-
BASED CONVECTION BUT INSTEAD ROOTED IN A LAYER AROUND 7000 FEET
UP. LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-400 MB ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT SHOULD
ANYTHING SURVIVE THAT LATE IT COULD STILL HAVE THUNDER. TO BLEND
WITH NWS RAH AND MHX I HAVE ADDED A 20 POP LATE TONIGHT FROM
LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO BURGAW...OTHERWISE VERY FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WITH STRONG
HEATING AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS
SOARED ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND
SLOWLY IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP SHWRS AT BAY
FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...EXPECT FLATTER CU TO MIX WITH MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA BOUNDARY LATE
EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW STRAY
SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS MIDDLE
AMERICA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST THU INTO FRI. DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN FLOW...TO IMPACT THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO BRING
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL STRENGTHEN THU AFTERNOON AND
THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST LIFT...THUS
ALLOWING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING INCREASES
THE INSTABILITY.

THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DEPTH ARE STILL EXPECTED THU/THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE EVEN FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. HOWEVER...HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ARE BETTER
ABLE TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.

THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THU WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
MID 90S WITH LOWER 90S VERY NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THU
NIGHT AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LIKELY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH CREATES HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS
PERIOD...AND IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND SEASONABLE LOWS.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS FROM THE
NE...SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND CUT OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SIT BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT IS BLOCKED BY RIDGING ON ALL SIDES. BENEATH THIS
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MAINTAINING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW MUCH QPF IS
EXPECTED SINCE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF ERIKAS REMNANTS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WPC QPF SHOWS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HEAVIEST ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ERIKAS REMNANTS
WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY WEDNESDAY AND LIFT TO THE NORTH
AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE WEAKENS...THIS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST RESULTANT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
NEARLY CALM SOUTHWEST FLOW IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. A VORT MAX
IN VIRGINIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH IT. THIS CONVECTION MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS TO WARRANT A VCSH MENTION. THE CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 09Z. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM
MODEL AS THE GFS SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL
WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY.
BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY
10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TIGHTEN...
AND WITH THAT WE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. THE HIGHEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRI NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 15
TO 20 KT AS A NE SURGE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE N.

A LAND BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND THU MORNING. THE
SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT
THU AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH 3 FT SEAS
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
STRONGLY SAT/SUN BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HIGH BUILDS SW FROM NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE
SURGE...DRIVING WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY ON MONDAY TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DOMINATED BY A
NE WIND WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL MASK A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT EARLY SATURDAY...RISING TO
3-4 FT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE NE FETCH PERSISTS. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL THEN EASE A BIT MONDAY ON THE SLACKENING WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...TRA/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 022306
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
706 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...CLOSELY WATCHING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NC SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE 500 MB COLD POOL CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA
SHOULD NOT DIVE THIS FAR SOUTH...A SURPRISING NUMBER OF MODELS
STILL SHOW SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA STARTING
AROUND 3-4 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS WOULD NOT BE SURFACE-
BASED CONVECTION BUT INSTEAD ROOTED IN A LAYER AROUND 7000 FEET
UP. LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-400 MB ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT SHOULD
ANYTHING SURVIVE THAT LATE IT COULD STILL HAVE THUNDER. TO BLEND
WITH NWS RAH AND MHX I HAVE ADDED A 20 POP LATE TONIGHT FROM
LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO BURGAW...OTHERWISE VERY FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WITH STRONG
HEATING AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS
SOARED ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND
SLOWLY IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP SHWRS AT BAY
FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...EXPECT FLATTER CU TO MIX WITH MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA BOUNDARY LATE
EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW STRAY
SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS MIDDLE
AMERICA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST THU INTO FRI. DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN FLOW...TO IMPACT THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO BRING
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL STRENGTHEN THU AFTERNOON AND
THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST LIFT...THUS
ALLOWING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING INCREASES
THE INSTABILITY.

THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DEPTH ARE STILL EXPECTED THU/THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE EVEN FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. HOWEVER...HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ARE BETTER
ABLE TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.

THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THU WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
MID 90S WITH LOWER 90S VERY NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THU
NIGHT AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LIKELY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH CREATES HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS
PERIOD...AND IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND SEASONABLE LOWS.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS FROM THE
NE...SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND CUT OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SIT BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT IS BLOCKED BY RIDGING ON ALL SIDES. BENEATH THIS
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MAINTAINING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW MUCH QPF IS
EXPECTED SINCE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF ERIKAS REMNANTS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WPC QPF SHOWS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HEAVIEST ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ERIKAS REMNANTS
WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY WEDNESDAY AND LIFT TO THE NORTH
AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE WEAKENS...THIS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST RESULTANT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
NEARLY CALM SOUTHWEST FLOW IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. A VORT MAX
IN VIRGINIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH IT. THIS CONVECTION MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS TO WARRANT A VCSH MENTION. THE CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 09Z. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM
MODEL AS THE GFS SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL
WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY.
BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY
10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TIGHTEN...
AND WITH THAT WE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. THE HIGHEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRI NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 15
TO 20 KT AS A NE SURGE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE N.

A LAND BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND THU MORNING. THE
SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT
THU AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH 3 FT SEAS
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
STRONGLY SAT/SUN BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HIGH BUILDS SW FROM NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE
SURGE...DRIVING WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY ON MONDAY TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DOMINATED BY A
NE WIND WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL MASK A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT EARLY SATURDAY...RISING TO
3-4 FT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE NE FETCH PERSISTS. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL THEN EASE A BIT MONDAY ON THE SLACKENING WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...TRA/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 022221
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
620 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. WITH STRONG HEATING AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS SOARED ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE. AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND SLOWLY IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
SHWRS AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...EXPECT FLATTER CU TO
MIX WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA BOUNDARY LATE
EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW STRAY
SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS MIDDLE
AMERICA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST THU INTO FRI. DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN FLOW...TO IMPACT THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO BRING
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL STRENGTHEN THU AFTERNOON AND
THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST LIFT...THUS
ALLOWING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING INCREASES
THE INSTABILITY.

THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DEPTH ARE STILL EXPECTED THU/THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE EVEN FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. HOWEVER...HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ARE BETTER
ABLE TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.

THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THU WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
MID 90S WITH LOWER 90S VERY NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THU
NIGHT AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LIKELY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH CREATES HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS
PERIOD...AND IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND SEASONABLE LOWS.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS FROM THE
NE...SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND CUT OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SIT BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT IS BLOCKED BY RIDGING ON ALL SIDES. BENEATH THIS
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MAINTAINING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW MUCH QPF IS
EXPECTED SINCE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF ERIKAS REMNANTS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WPC QPF SHOWS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HEAVIEST ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ERIKAS REMNANTS
WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY WEDNESDAY AND LIFT TO THE NORTH
AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE WEAKENS...THIS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST RESULTANT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
NEARLY CALM SOUTHWEST FLOW IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. A VORT MAX
IN VIRGINIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH IT. THIS CONVECTION MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS TO WARRANT A VCSH MENTION. THE CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 09Z. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM
MODEL AS THE GFS SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY. BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY
SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT
OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TIGHTEN...
AND WITH THAT WE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. THE HIGHEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRI NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 15
TO 20 KT AS A NE SURGE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE N.

A LAND BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND THU MORNING. THE
SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT
THU AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH 3 FT SEAS
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
STRONGLY SAT/SUN BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HIGH BUILDS SW FROM NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE
SURGE...DRIVING WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY ON MONDAY TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DOMINATED BY A
NE WIND WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL MASK A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT EARLY SATURDAY...RISING TO
3-4 FT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE NE FETCH PERSISTS. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL THEN EASE A BIT MONDAY ON THE SLACKENING WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 022221
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
620 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. WITH STRONG HEATING AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS SOARED ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE. AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND SLOWLY IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
SHWRS AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...EXPECT FLATTER CU TO
MIX WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA BOUNDARY LATE
EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW STRAY
SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS MIDDLE
AMERICA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST THU INTO FRI. DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN FLOW...TO IMPACT THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO BRING
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL STRENGTHEN THU AFTERNOON AND
THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST LIFT...THUS
ALLOWING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING INCREASES
THE INSTABILITY.

THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DEPTH ARE STILL EXPECTED THU/THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE EVEN FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. HOWEVER...HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ARE BETTER
ABLE TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.

THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THU WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
MID 90S WITH LOWER 90S VERY NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THU
NIGHT AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LIKELY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH CREATES HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS
PERIOD...AND IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND SEASONABLE LOWS.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS FROM THE
NE...SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND CUT OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SIT BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT IS BLOCKED BY RIDGING ON ALL SIDES. BENEATH THIS
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MAINTAINING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW MUCH QPF IS
EXPECTED SINCE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF ERIKAS REMNANTS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WPC QPF SHOWS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HEAVIEST ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ERIKAS REMNANTS
WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY WEDNESDAY AND LIFT TO THE NORTH
AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE WEAKENS...THIS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST RESULTANT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
NEARLY CALM SOUTHWEST FLOW IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. A VORT MAX
IN VIRGINIA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH IT. THIS CONVECTION MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS TO WARRANT A VCSH MENTION. THE CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 09Z. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM
MODEL AS THE GFS SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY. BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY
SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT
OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TIGHTEN...
AND WITH THAT WE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. THE HIGHEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRI NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 15
TO 20 KT AS A NE SURGE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE N.

A LAND BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND THU MORNING. THE
SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT
THU AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH 3 FT SEAS
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
STRONGLY SAT/SUN BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HIGH BUILDS SW FROM NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE
SURGE...DRIVING WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY ON MONDAY TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DOMINATED BY A
NE WIND WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL MASK A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT EARLY SATURDAY...RISING TO
3-4 FT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE NE FETCH PERSISTS. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL THEN EASE A BIT MONDAY ON THE SLACKENING WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43





000
FXUS62 KILM 021910
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
310 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. WITH STRONG HEATING AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS SOARED ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE. AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND SLOWLY IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
SHWRS AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...EXPECT FLATTER CU TO
MIX WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA BOUNDARY LATE
EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW STRAY
SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS MIDDLE
AMERICA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST THU INTO FRI. DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN FLOW...TO IMPACT THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO BRING
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL STRENGTHEN THU AFTERNOON AND
THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST LIFT...THUS
ALLOWING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING INCREASES
THE INSTABILITY.

THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DEPTH ARE STILL EXPECTED THU/THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE EVEN FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. HOWEVER...HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ARE BETTER
ABLE TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.

THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THU WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
MID 90S WITH LOWER 90S VERY NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THU
NIGHT AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LIKELY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH CREATES HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS
PERIOD...AND IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND SEASONABLE LOWS.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS FROM THE
NE...SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND CUT OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SIT BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT IS BLOCKED BY RIDGING ON ALL SIDES. BENEATH THIS
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MAINTAINING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW MUCH QPF IS
EXPECTED SINCE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF ERIKAS REMNANTS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WPC QPF SHOWS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HEAVIEST ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ERIKAS REMNANTS
WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY WEDNESDAY AND LIFT TO THE NORTH
AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE WEAKENS...THIS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT WSW-NW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE
GENERALLY SCT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
AT KFLO/KLBT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
THUS HAVE NOT ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MVFR VSBYS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. THE CHANCE OF IFR IS
LOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER HOWEVER SINCE KLBT MAY SCT IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS IF IFR OCCURS IT WILL BE THERE. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH W-NW
WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY. BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY
SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT
OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TIGHTEN...
AND WITH THAT WE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. THE HIGHEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRI NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 15
TO 20 KT AS A NE SURGE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE N.

A LAND BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND THU MORNING. THE
SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT
THU AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH 3 FT SEAS
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
STRONGLY SAT/SUN BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HIGH BUILDS SW FROM NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE
SURGE...DRIVING WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY ON MONDAY TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DOMINATED BY A
NE WIND WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL MASK A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT EARLY SATURDAY...RISING TO
3-4 FT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE NE FETCH PERSISTS. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL THEN EASE A BIT MONDAY ON THE SLACKENING WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021910
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
310 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. WITH STRONG HEATING AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS SOARED ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE. AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND SLOWLY IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
SHWRS AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...EXPECT FLATTER CU TO
MIX WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA BOUNDARY LATE
EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW STRAY
SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS MIDDLE
AMERICA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST THU INTO FRI. DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN FLOW...TO IMPACT THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO BRING
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL STRENGTHEN THU AFTERNOON AND
THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST LIFT...THUS
ALLOWING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING INCREASES
THE INSTABILITY.

THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DEPTH ARE STILL EXPECTED THU/THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE EVEN FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. HOWEVER...HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ARE BETTER
ABLE TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.

THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THU WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
MID 90S WITH LOWER 90S VERY NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THU
NIGHT AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LIKELY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH CREATES HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS
PERIOD...AND IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND SEASONABLE LOWS.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS FROM THE
NE...SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND CUT OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SIT BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT IS BLOCKED BY RIDGING ON ALL SIDES. BENEATH THIS
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MAINTAINING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW MUCH QPF IS
EXPECTED SINCE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF ERIKAS REMNANTS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WPC QPF SHOWS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HEAVIEST ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ERIKAS REMNANTS
WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY WEDNESDAY AND LIFT TO THE NORTH
AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE WEAKENS...THIS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT WSW-NW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE
GENERALLY SCT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
AT KFLO/KLBT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
THUS HAVE NOT ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MVFR VSBYS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. THE CHANCE OF IFR IS
LOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER HOWEVER SINCE KLBT MAY SCT IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS IF IFR OCCURS IT WILL BE THERE. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH W-NW
WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY. BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY
SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT
OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TIGHTEN...
AND WITH THAT WE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. THE HIGHEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRI NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 15
TO 20 KT AS A NE SURGE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE N.

A LAND BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND THU MORNING. THE
SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT
THU AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH 3 FT SEAS
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
STRONGLY SAT/SUN BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HIGH BUILDS SW FROM NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE
SURGE...DRIVING WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY ON MONDAY TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DOMINATED BY A
NE WIND WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL MASK A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT EARLY SATURDAY...RISING TO
3-4 FT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE NE FETCH PERSISTS. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL THEN EASE A BIT MONDAY ON THE SLACKENING WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 021910
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
310 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. WITH STRONG HEATING AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS SOARED ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE. AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND SLOWLY IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
SHWRS AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...EXPECT FLATTER CU TO
MIX WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA BOUNDARY LATE
EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW STRAY
SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS MIDDLE
AMERICA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST THU INTO FRI. DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN FLOW...TO IMPACT THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO BRING
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL STRENGTHEN THU AFTERNOON AND
THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MODEST LIFT...THUS
ALLOWING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING INCREASES
THE INSTABILITY.

THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DEPTH ARE STILL EXPECTED THU/THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE EVEN FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. HOWEVER...HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ARE BETTER
ABLE TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.

THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THU WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
MID 90S WITH LOWER 90S VERY NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THU
NIGHT AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LIKELY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH CREATES HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS
PERIOD...AND IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND SEASONABLE LOWS.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST...DRIVING A SURFACE RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS FROM THE
NE...SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND CUT OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN SIT BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT IS BLOCKED BY RIDGING ON ALL SIDES. BENEATH THIS
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MAINTAINING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW MUCH QPF IS
EXPECTED SINCE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF ERIKAS REMNANTS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WPC QPF SHOWS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HEAVIEST ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ERIKAS REMNANTS
WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY WEDNESDAY AND LIFT TO THE NORTH
AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE WEAKENS...THIS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT WSW-NW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE
GENERALLY SCT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
AT KFLO/KLBT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
THUS HAVE NOT ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MVFR VSBYS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. THE CHANCE OF IFR IS
LOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER HOWEVER SINCE KLBT MAY SCT IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS IF IFR OCCURS IT WILL BE THERE. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH W-NW
WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY. BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY
SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT
OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TIGHTEN...
AND WITH THAT WE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. THE HIGHEST
WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRI NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 15
TO 20 KT AS A NE SURGE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE N.

A LAND BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND THU MORNING. THE
SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT
THU AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH 3 FT SEAS
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
STRONGLY SAT/SUN BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HIGH BUILDS SW FROM NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE
SURGE...DRIVING WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY ON MONDAY TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 KT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DOMINATED BY A
NE WIND WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL MASK A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT EARLY SATURDAY...RISING TO
3-4 FT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE NE FETCH PERSISTS. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL THEN EASE A BIT MONDAY ON THE SLACKENING WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021821
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
221 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. WITH STRONG HEATING AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS SOARED ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE. AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND SLOWLY IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
SHWRS AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...EXPECT FLATTER CU TO
MIX WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA BOUNDARY LATE
EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW STRAY
SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT WSW-NW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY
SCT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT
KFLO/KLBT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
THUS HAVE NOT ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MVFR VSBYS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. THE CHANCE OF IFR IS LOW
DUE TO CLOUD COVER HOWEVER SINCE KLBT MAY SCT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
IF IFR OCCURS IT WILL BE THERE. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH W-NW WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY. BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY
SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT
OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021821
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
221 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. WITH STRONG HEATING AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS SOARED ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE. AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND SLOWLY IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
SHWRS AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...EXPECT FLATTER CU TO
MIX WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA BOUNDARY LATE
EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW STRAY
SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT WSW-NW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY
SCT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT
KFLO/KLBT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
THUS HAVE NOT ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MVFR VSBYS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. THE CHANCE OF IFR IS LOW
DUE TO CLOUD COVER HOWEVER SINCE KLBT MAY SCT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
IF IFR OCCURS IT WILL BE THERE. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH W-NW WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY. BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY
SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT
OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 021821
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
221 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. WITH STRONG HEATING AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS SOARED ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE. AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND SLOWLY IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
SHWRS AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...EXPECT FLATTER CU TO
MIX WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA BOUNDARY LATE
EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW STRAY
SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT WSW-NW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY
SCT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT
KFLO/KLBT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
THUS HAVE NOT ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MVFR VSBYS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. THE CHANCE OF IFR IS LOW
DUE TO CLOUD COVER HOWEVER SINCE KLBT MAY SCT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
IF IFR OCCURS IT WILL BE THERE. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH W-NW WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY. BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY
SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT
OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021553
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1150 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS. A
CLOUDLESS AND WARM AND HUMID START TO THE DAY...ALREADY CLOSE TO
80 SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG HEATING TODAY
AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS WILL SOAR
ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON. AS
IT PUSHES INLAND IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MAY GENERATE SOME CU...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL KEEP SHWRS AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...ASIDE FOR SOME
LOCALIZED CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE VISIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ACT TO FILTER OUT SOME SUNSHIEN BUT MODELS
SHOW ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA
BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA
BOUNDARY LATE EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW
STRAY SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT WILL RISE
QUICKLY TO VFR. LIGHT WSW-WNW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY SCT EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6K CIGS POSSIBLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT KLBT.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THUS HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IFR/MVFR VSBYS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY. BASICALLY A LIGHTER OFF
SHORE...NW-W...FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ON SHORE WINDS GUSTIER
WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR






000
FXUS62 KILM 021553
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1150 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS. A
CLOUDLESS AND WARM AND HUMID START TO THE DAY...ALREADY CLOSE TO
80 SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG HEATING TODAY
AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS WILL SOAR
ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON. AS
IT PUSHES INLAND IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MAY GENERATE SOME CU...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL KEEP SHWRS AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...ASIDE FOR SOME
LOCALIZED CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE VISIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ACT TO FILTER OUT SOME SUNSHIEN BUT MODELS
SHOW ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA
BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA
BOUNDARY LATE EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW
STRAY SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT WILL RISE
QUICKLY TO VFR. LIGHT WSW-WNW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY SCT EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6K CIGS POSSIBLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT KLBT.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THUS HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IFR/MVFR VSBYS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY. BASICALLY A LIGHTER OFF
SHORE...NW-W...FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ON SHORE WINDS GUSTIER
WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 021553
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1150 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS. A
CLOUDLESS AND WARM AND HUMID START TO THE DAY...ALREADY CLOSE TO
80 SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG HEATING TODAY
AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS WILL SOAR
ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON. AS
IT PUSHES INLAND IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MAY GENERATE SOME CU...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL KEEP SHWRS AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...ASIDE FOR SOME
LOCALIZED CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE VISIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ACT TO FILTER OUT SOME SUNSHIEN BUT MODELS
SHOW ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA
BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA
BOUNDARY LATE EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW
STRAY SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT WILL RISE
QUICKLY TO VFR. LIGHT WSW-WNW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY SCT EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6K CIGS POSSIBLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT KLBT.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THUS HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IFR/MVFR VSBYS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY. BASICALLY A LIGHTER OFF
SHORE...NW-W...FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ON SHORE WINDS GUSTIER
WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 021550
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1150 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS. A
CLOUDLESS AND WARM AND HUMID START TO THE DAY...ALREADY CLOSE TO
80 SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG HEATING TODAY
AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS WILL SOAR ABOVE
90 MOST PLACES...WITH SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT
PUSHES INLAND IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MAY GENERATE SOME CU...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL KEEP SHWRS AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...ASIDE FOR
SOME LOCALIZED CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA BOUNDARY LATE
EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW STRAY
SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT WILL RISE
QUICKLY TO VFR. LIGHT WSW-WNW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY SCT EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6K CIGS POSSIBLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT KLBT.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THUS HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IFR/MVFR VSBYS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY. BASICALLY A LIGHTER OFF
SHORE...NW-W...FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ON SHORE WINDS GUSTIER
WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 021550
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1150 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS. A
CLOUDLESS AND WARM AND HUMID START TO THE DAY...ALREADY CLOSE TO
80 SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG HEATING TODAY
AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS WILL SOAR ABOVE
90 MOST PLACES...WITH SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT
PUSHES INLAND IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MAY GENERATE SOME CU...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL KEEP SHWRS AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...ASIDE FOR
SOME LOCALIZED CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA BOUNDARY LATE
EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW STRAY
SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT WILL RISE
QUICKLY TO VFR. LIGHT WSW-WNW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY SCT EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6K CIGS POSSIBLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT KLBT.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THUS HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IFR/MVFR VSBYS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY. BASICALLY A LIGHTER OFF
SHORE...NW-W...FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ON SHORE WINDS GUSTIER
WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021148
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
748 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AN AMORPHOUS AND ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITHIN THIS PATTERN WE WILL SEE A
WEAK PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE SET UP OF A MODEST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL LEAD TO SUMMER- LIKE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING COLUMN...THE MID
LAYERS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...LIMITING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TODAY TO ISOLATED SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH RELATED
CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE CHANCES AGAIN FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT WILL RISE
QUICKLY TO VFR. LIGHT WSW-WNW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY SCT EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6K CIGS POSSIBLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT KLBT.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THUS HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IFR/MVFR VSBYS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 KT OR LESS RANGE...WITH
SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT...THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. EXCEPTION TO THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS. WINDS NEAR SHORE AT THAT TIME MAY BE
HIGHER...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND GUSTY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021148
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
748 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AN AMORPHOUS AND ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITHIN THIS PATTERN WE WILL SEE A
WEAK PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE SET UP OF A MODEST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL LEAD TO SUMMER- LIKE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING COLUMN...THE MID
LAYERS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...LIMITING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TODAY TO ISOLATED SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH RELATED
CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE CHANCES AGAIN FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT WILL RISE
QUICKLY TO VFR. LIGHT WSW-WNW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY SCT EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6K CIGS POSSIBLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT KLBT.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THUS HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IFR/MVFR VSBYS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 KT OR LESS RANGE...WITH
SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT...THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. EXCEPTION TO THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS. WINDS NEAR SHORE AT THAT TIME MAY BE
HIGHER...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND GUSTY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 021148
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
748 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AN AMORPHOUS AND ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITHIN THIS PATTERN WE WILL SEE A
WEAK PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE SET UP OF A MODEST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL LEAD TO SUMMER- LIKE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING COLUMN...THE MID
LAYERS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...LIMITING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TODAY TO ISOLATED SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH RELATED
CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE CHANCES AGAIN FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT WILL RISE
QUICKLY TO VFR. LIGHT WSW-WNW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY SCT EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6K CIGS POSSIBLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT KLBT.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THUS HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IFR/MVFR VSBYS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 KT OR LESS RANGE...WITH
SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT...THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. EXCEPTION TO THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS. WINDS NEAR SHORE AT THAT TIME MAY BE
HIGHER...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND GUSTY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 021148
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
748 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AN AMORPHOUS AND ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITHIN THIS PATTERN WE WILL SEE A
WEAK PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE SET UP OF A MODEST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL LEAD TO SUMMER- LIKE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING COLUMN...THE MID
LAYERS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...LIMITING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TODAY TO ISOLATED SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH RELATED
CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE CHANCES AGAIN FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT WILL RISE
QUICKLY TO VFR. LIGHT WSW-WNW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY SCT EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6K CIGS POSSIBLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT KLBT.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THUS HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IFR/MVFR VSBYS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 KT OR LESS RANGE...WITH
SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT...THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. EXCEPTION TO THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS. WINDS NEAR SHORE AT THAT TIME MAY BE
HIGHER...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND GUSTY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021019
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
619 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AN AMORPHOUS AND ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITHIN THIS PATTERN WE WILL SEE A
WEAK PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE SET UP OF A MODEST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL LEAD TO SUMMER- LIKE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING COLUMN...THE MID
LAYERS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...LIMITING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TODAY TO ISOLATED SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH RELATED
CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE CHANCES AGAIN FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 KT OR LESS RANGE...WITH
SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT...THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. EXCEPTION TO THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS. WINDS NEAR SHORE AT THAT TIME MAY BE
HIGHER...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND GUSTY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 021019
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
619 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AN AMORPHOUS AND ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITHIN THIS PATTERN WE WILL SEE A
WEAK PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE SET UP OF A MODEST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL LEAD TO SUMMER- LIKE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING COLUMN...THE MID
LAYERS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...LIMITING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TODAY TO ISOLATED SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH RELATED
CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE CHANCES AGAIN FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 KT OR LESS RANGE...WITH
SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT...THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. EXCEPTION TO THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS. WINDS NEAR SHORE AT THAT TIME MAY BE
HIGHER...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND GUSTY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 021019
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
619 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AN AMORPHOUS AND ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITHIN THIS PATTERN WE WILL SEE A
WEAK PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE SET UP OF A MODEST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL LEAD TO SUMMER- LIKE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING COLUMN...THE MID
LAYERS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...LIMITING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TODAY TO ISOLATED SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH RELATED
CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE CHANCES AGAIN FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 KT OR LESS RANGE...WITH
SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT...THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. EXCEPTION TO THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS. WINDS NEAR SHORE AT THAT TIME MAY BE
HIGHER...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND GUSTY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 021019
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
619 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AN AMORPHOUS AND ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITHIN THIS PATTERN WE WILL SEE A
WEAK PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE SET UP OF A MODEST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL LEAD TO SUMMER- LIKE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING COLUMN...THE MID
LAYERS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...LIMITING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TODAY TO ISOLATED SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH RELATED
CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE CHANCES AGAIN FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 KT OR LESS RANGE...WITH
SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT...THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. EXCEPTION TO THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS. WINDS NEAR SHORE AT THAT TIME MAY BE
HIGHER...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND GUSTY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 020645
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
245 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...AN AMORPHOUS AND ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITHIN
THIS PATTERN WE WILL SEE A WEAK PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE SET UP OF A
MODEST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AMPLE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL LEAD TO SUMMER-
LIKE APPARENT TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S MOST PLACES
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING
COLUMN...THE MID LAYERS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...LIMITING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TODAY TO ISOLATED SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH RELATED CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE CHANCES AGAIN FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 KT OR
LESS RANGE...WITH SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT...THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
EXCEPTION TO THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS. WINDS NEAR SHORE
AT THAT TIME MAY BE HIGHER...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND GUSTY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 020645
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
245 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...AN AMORPHOUS AND ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITHIN
THIS PATTERN WE WILL SEE A WEAK PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE SET UP OF A
MODEST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AMPLE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL LEAD TO SUMMER-
LIKE APPARENT TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S MOST PLACES
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING
COLUMN...THE MID LAYERS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...LIMITING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TODAY TO ISOLATED SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH RELATED CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE CHANCES AGAIN FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 KT OR
LESS RANGE...WITH SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT...THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
EXCEPTION TO THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS. WINDS NEAR SHORE
AT THAT TIME MAY BE HIGHER...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND GUSTY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 020645
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
245 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...AN AMORPHOUS AND ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITHIN
THIS PATTERN WE WILL SEE A WEAK PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE SET UP OF A
MODEST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AMPLE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL LEAD TO SUMMER-
LIKE APPARENT TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S MOST PLACES
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING
COLUMN...THE MID LAYERS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...LIMITING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TODAY TO ISOLATED SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH RELATED CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE CHANCES AGAIN FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 KT OR
LESS RANGE...WITH SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT...THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
EXCEPTION TO THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS. WINDS NEAR SHORE
AT THAT TIME MAY BE HIGHER...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND GUSTY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 020645
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
245 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...AN AMORPHOUS AND ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITHIN
THIS PATTERN WE WILL SEE A WEAK PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE SET UP OF A
MODEST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AMPLE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL LEAD TO SUMMER-
LIKE APPARENT TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S MOST PLACES
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING
COLUMN...THE MID LAYERS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...LIMITING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TODAY TO ISOLATED SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH RELATED CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE CHANCES AGAIN FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 KT OR
LESS RANGE...WITH SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT...THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
EXCEPTION TO THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS. WINDS NEAR SHORE
AT THAT TIME MAY BE HIGHER...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND GUSTY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 020630
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...BLOWING OFF
FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR US THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY BE JOINED LATE
BY SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND 7000 FEET AS A THIN LAYER OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
02Z/10 PM TEMPERATURES CAME IN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO AT ALL
LOCATIONS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS AND DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY
BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER GEORGETOWN.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH W-SW FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO
ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF AREA AND THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN UPPER LEVEL S-SW
WINDS. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP
AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY AND SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE. SEAS IN
THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH TROUGH LINGERING IN THE
OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF SHORE
FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT
SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...SGL/REK





000
FXUS62 KILM 020630
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...BLOWING OFF
FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR US THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY BE JOINED LATE
BY SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND 7000 FEET AS A THIN LAYER OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
02Z/10 PM TEMPERATURES CAME IN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO AT ALL
LOCATIONS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS AND DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY
BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER GEORGETOWN.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH W-SW FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO
ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF AREA AND THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN UPPER LEVEL S-SW
WINDS. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP
AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY AND SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE. SEAS IN
THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH TROUGH LINGERING IN THE
OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF SHORE
FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT
SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...SGL/REK




000
FXUS62 KILM 020630
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...BLOWING OFF
FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR US THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY BE JOINED LATE
BY SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND 7000 FEET AS A THIN LAYER OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
02Z/10 PM TEMPERATURES CAME IN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO AT ALL
LOCATIONS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS AND DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY
BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER GEORGETOWN.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH W-SW FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO
ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF AREA AND THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN UPPER LEVEL S-SW
WINDS. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP
AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY AND SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE. SEAS IN
THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH TROUGH LINGERING IN THE
OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF SHORE
FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT
SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...SGL/REK





000
FXUS62 KILM 020630
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...BLOWING OFF
FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR US THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY BE JOINED LATE
BY SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND 7000 FEET AS A THIN LAYER OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
02Z/10 PM TEMPERATURES CAME IN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO AT ALL
LOCATIONS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS AND DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY
BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER GEORGETOWN.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH W-SW FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO
ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF AREA AND THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN UPPER LEVEL S-SW
WINDS. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP
AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY AND SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE. SEAS IN
THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH TROUGH LINGERING IN THE
OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF SHORE
FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT
SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...SGL/REK




000
FXUS62 KILM 020533
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
133 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...BLOWING
OFF FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR US THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY
BE JOINED LATE BY SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND 7000 FEET AS A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 02Z/10 PM TEMPERATURES CAME IN WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO AT ALL LOCATIONS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
PLANNED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS
BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
GEORGETOWN.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH W-SW FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO
ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF AREA AND THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN UPPER LEVEL S-SW
WINDS. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP
AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK NE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. AS A NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME IDENTIFIABLE
WITH STRONG HEATING WED AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WED...BUT THERE IS AN UPTICK
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND IN DEPTH OF MOISTURE LATE WED
NIGHT AND DURING THU. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THU. WILL CARRY UP TO 30
POPS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE THE NEED TO RAISE THESE
VALUES.

LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL BE WITH US DESPITE THE FACT THAT
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ENDED WITH THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BEACHES AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR AND DEVELOPING
LAND BREEZE WARRANT MAINLY LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE COOLEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD DROP JUST BELOW 70 WHILE THE
BEACHES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AS
THE REMNANT VORTICITY FROM LAST WEEKS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS VORTICITY IS MOST EASILY NOTED
IN 850MB PLAN-VIEW FORECASTS...AND ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIFFER WITH THEIR EVOLUTION...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MEANDER AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GEORGIA COAST...THEY WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVES TO CREATE TROUGHING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST IT WILL BE
IMPEDED BY SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

LIFT ATOP THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS US VERY WET SAT-MON...BUT HAS BEEN
OVERDONE RECENTLY...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF WHILE
MAINTAINING LOW CHC/SCHC POP FOR CONSISTENCY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO
BREAKDOWN ALLOWING FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST...BEFORE DRYING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL SAT-
SUN-MON BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT...ALTHOUGH MINS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY AND SHOULD TURN TO THE
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE.
SEAS IN THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH TROUGH LINGERING IN
THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF
SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3
FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
RELAXED. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHEST WINDS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE
HOURS...UP TO AROUND 10 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S AND SSW
WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. A LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST GROUND SWELL PRESENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
DOWN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL CREATE E-TO-NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS A NE SURGE FOLLOWS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT...RISING TO 15 KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE
EASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN IN THE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND- WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A NE 5 SEC CHOP GROWING IN AMPLITUDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT FRIDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4
FT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 020533
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
133 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...BLOWING
OFF FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR US THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY
BE JOINED LATE BY SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND 7000 FEET AS A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 02Z/10 PM TEMPERATURES CAME IN WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO AT ALL LOCATIONS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
PLANNED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS
BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
GEORGETOWN.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH W-SW FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO
ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF AREA AND THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN UPPER LEVEL S-SW
WINDS. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP
AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK NE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. AS A NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME IDENTIFIABLE
WITH STRONG HEATING WED AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WED...BUT THERE IS AN UPTICK
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND IN DEPTH OF MOISTURE LATE WED
NIGHT AND DURING THU. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THU. WILL CARRY UP TO 30
POPS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE THE NEED TO RAISE THESE
VALUES.

LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL BE WITH US DESPITE THE FACT THAT
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ENDED WITH THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BEACHES AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR AND DEVELOPING
LAND BREEZE WARRANT MAINLY LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE COOLEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD DROP JUST BELOW 70 WHILE THE
BEACHES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AS
THE REMNANT VORTICITY FROM LAST WEEKS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS VORTICITY IS MOST EASILY NOTED
IN 850MB PLAN-VIEW FORECASTS...AND ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIFFER WITH THEIR EVOLUTION...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MEANDER AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GEORGIA COAST...THEY WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVES TO CREATE TROUGHING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST IT WILL BE
IMPEDED BY SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

LIFT ATOP THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS US VERY WET SAT-MON...BUT HAS BEEN
OVERDONE RECENTLY...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF WHILE
MAINTAINING LOW CHC/SCHC POP FOR CONSISTENCY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO
BREAKDOWN ALLOWING FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST...BEFORE DRYING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL SAT-
SUN-MON BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT...ALTHOUGH MINS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY AND SHOULD TURN TO THE
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE.
SEAS IN THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH TROUGH LINGERING IN
THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF
SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3
FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
RELAXED. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHEST WINDS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE
HOURS...UP TO AROUND 10 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S AND SSW
WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. A LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST GROUND SWELL PRESENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
DOWN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL CREATE E-TO-NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS A NE SURGE FOLLOWS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT...RISING TO 15 KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE
EASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN IN THE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND- WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A NE 5 SEC CHOP GROWING IN AMPLITUDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT FRIDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4
FT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 020533
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
133 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...BLOWING
OFF FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR US THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY
BE JOINED LATE BY SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND 7000 FEET AS A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 02Z/10 PM TEMPERATURES CAME IN WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO AT ALL LOCATIONS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
PLANNED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS
BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
GEORGETOWN.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH W-SW FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO
ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF AREA AND THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN UPPER LEVEL S-SW
WINDS. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP
AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK NE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. AS A NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME IDENTIFIABLE
WITH STRONG HEATING WED AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WED...BUT THERE IS AN UPTICK
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND IN DEPTH OF MOISTURE LATE WED
NIGHT AND DURING THU. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THU. WILL CARRY UP TO 30
POPS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE THE NEED TO RAISE THESE
VALUES.

LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL BE WITH US DESPITE THE FACT THAT
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ENDED WITH THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BEACHES AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR AND DEVELOPING
LAND BREEZE WARRANT MAINLY LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE COOLEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD DROP JUST BELOW 70 WHILE THE
BEACHES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AS
THE REMNANT VORTICITY FROM LAST WEEKS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS VORTICITY IS MOST EASILY NOTED
IN 850MB PLAN-VIEW FORECASTS...AND ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIFFER WITH THEIR EVOLUTION...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MEANDER AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GEORGIA COAST...THEY WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVES TO CREATE TROUGHING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST IT WILL BE
IMPEDED BY SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

LIFT ATOP THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS US VERY WET SAT-MON...BUT HAS BEEN
OVERDONE RECENTLY...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF WHILE
MAINTAINING LOW CHC/SCHC POP FOR CONSISTENCY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO
BREAKDOWN ALLOWING FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST...BEFORE DRYING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL SAT-
SUN-MON BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT...ALTHOUGH MINS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY AND SHOULD TURN TO THE
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE.
SEAS IN THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH TROUGH LINGERING IN
THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF
SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3
FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
RELAXED. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHEST WINDS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE
HOURS...UP TO AROUND 10 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S AND SSW
WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. A LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST GROUND SWELL PRESENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
DOWN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL CREATE E-TO-NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS A NE SURGE FOLLOWS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT...RISING TO 15 KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE
EASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN IN THE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND- WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A NE 5 SEC CHOP GROWING IN AMPLITUDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT FRIDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4
FT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 020533
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
133 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...BLOWING
OFF FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR US THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY
BE JOINED LATE BY SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND 7000 FEET AS A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 02Z/10 PM TEMPERATURES CAME IN WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO AT ALL LOCATIONS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
PLANNED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS
BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
GEORGETOWN.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH W-SW FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO
ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF AREA AND THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN UPPER LEVEL S-SW
WINDS. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP
AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK NE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. AS A NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME IDENTIFIABLE
WITH STRONG HEATING WED AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WED...BUT THERE IS AN UPTICK
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND IN DEPTH OF MOISTURE LATE WED
NIGHT AND DURING THU. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THU. WILL CARRY UP TO 30
POPS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE THE NEED TO RAISE THESE
VALUES.

LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL BE WITH US DESPITE THE FACT THAT
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ENDED WITH THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BEACHES AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR AND DEVELOPING
LAND BREEZE WARRANT MAINLY LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE COOLEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD DROP JUST BELOW 70 WHILE THE
BEACHES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AS
THE REMNANT VORTICITY FROM LAST WEEKS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS VORTICITY IS MOST EASILY NOTED
IN 850MB PLAN-VIEW FORECASTS...AND ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIFFER WITH THEIR EVOLUTION...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MEANDER AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GEORGIA COAST...THEY WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVES TO CREATE TROUGHING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST IT WILL BE
IMPEDED BY SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

LIFT ATOP THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS US VERY WET SAT-MON...BUT HAS BEEN
OVERDONE RECENTLY...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF WHILE
MAINTAINING LOW CHC/SCHC POP FOR CONSISTENCY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO
BREAKDOWN ALLOWING FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST...BEFORE DRYING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL SAT-
SUN-MON BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT...ALTHOUGH MINS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY AND SHOULD TURN TO THE
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE.
SEAS IN THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH TROUGH LINGERING IN
THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF
SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3
FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
RELAXED. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHEST WINDS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE
HOURS...UP TO AROUND 10 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S AND SSW
WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. A LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST GROUND SWELL PRESENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
DOWN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL CREATE E-TO-NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS A NE SURGE FOLLOWS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT...RISING TO 15 KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE
EASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN IN THE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND- WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A NE 5 SEC CHOP GROWING IN AMPLITUDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT FRIDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4
FT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 020245
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1045 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER EASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA...BLOWING OFF FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR US THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND MAY BE JOINED LATE BY SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AROUND 7000 FEET AS A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE
EAST BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 02Z/10 PM TEMPERATURES CAME
IN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO AT ALL LOCATIONS AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM
FOLLOWS...

FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS
BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
GEORGETOWN.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH W-SW FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO
ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF AREA AND THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN UPPER LEVEL S-SW
WINDS. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP
AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK NE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. AS A NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME IDENTIFIABLE
WITH STRONG HEATING WED AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WED...BUT THERE IS AN UPTICK
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND IN DEPTH OF MOISTURE LATE WED
NIGHT AND DURING THU. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THU. WILL CARRY UP TO 30
POPS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE THE NEED TO RAISE THESE
VALUES.

LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL BE WITH US DESPITE THE FACT THAT
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ENDED WITH THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BEACHES AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR AND DEVELOPING
LAND BREEZE WARRANT MAINLY LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE COOLEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD DROP JUST BELOW 70 WHILE THE
BEACHES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AS
THE REMNANT VORTICITY FROM LAST WEEKS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS VORTICITY IS MOST EASILY NOTED
IN 850MB PLAN-VIEW FORECASTS...AND ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIFFER WITH THEIR EVOLUTION...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MEANDER AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GEORGIA COAST...THEY WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVES TO CREATE TROUGHING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST IT WILL BE
IMPEDED BY SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

LIFT ATOP THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS US VERY WET SAT-MON...BUT HAS BEEN
OVERDONE RECENTLY...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF WHILE
MAINTAINING LOW CHC/SCHC POP FOR CONSISTENCY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO
BREAKDOWN ALLOWING FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST...BEFORE DRYING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL SAT-
SUN-MON BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT...ALTHOUGH MINS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING AS RADAR REMAINS QUIET AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 8 KTS OR LESS AND LINGERING FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS. GIVEN NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A BIT OF
MOISTURE RETURN PER LATEST GUIDANCE...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME
GUIDANCE IS INTRODUCING IFR...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM...HAVE
KEPT WITH TEMPO MVFR. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS. WOULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY
AND SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WILL CONTINUE. SEAS IN THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE WITH DOMINANT
PERIODS AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DISCUSSION FROM
200 PM FOLLOWS...

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH TROUGH LINGERING IN
THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF
SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3
FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
RELAXED. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHEST WINDS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE
HOURS...UP TO AROUND 10 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S AND SSW
WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. A LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST GROUND SWELL PRESENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
DOWN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL CREATE E-TO-NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS A NE SURGE FOLLOWS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT...RISING TO 15 KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE
EASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN IN THE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND- WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A NE 5 SEC CHOP GROWING IN AMPLITUDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT FRIDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4
FT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 020245
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1045 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER EASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA...BLOWING OFF FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR US THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND MAY BE JOINED LATE BY SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AROUND 7000 FEET AS A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE
EAST BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 02Z/10 PM TEMPERATURES CAME
IN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO AT ALL LOCATIONS AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM
FOLLOWS...

FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS
BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
GEORGETOWN.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH W-SW FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO
ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF AREA AND THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN UPPER LEVEL S-SW
WINDS. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP
AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK NE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. AS A NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME IDENTIFIABLE
WITH STRONG HEATING WED AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WED...BUT THERE IS AN UPTICK
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND IN DEPTH OF MOISTURE LATE WED
NIGHT AND DURING THU. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THU. WILL CARRY UP TO 30
POPS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE THE NEED TO RAISE THESE
VALUES.

LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL BE WITH US DESPITE THE FACT THAT
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ENDED WITH THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BEACHES AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR AND DEVELOPING
LAND BREEZE WARRANT MAINLY LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE COOLEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD DROP JUST BELOW 70 WHILE THE
BEACHES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AS
THE REMNANT VORTICITY FROM LAST WEEKS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS VORTICITY IS MOST EASILY NOTED
IN 850MB PLAN-VIEW FORECASTS...AND ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIFFER WITH THEIR EVOLUTION...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MEANDER AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GEORGIA COAST...THEY WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVES TO CREATE TROUGHING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST IT WILL BE
IMPEDED BY SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

LIFT ATOP THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS US VERY WET SAT-MON...BUT HAS BEEN
OVERDONE RECENTLY...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF WHILE
MAINTAINING LOW CHC/SCHC POP FOR CONSISTENCY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO
BREAKDOWN ALLOWING FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST...BEFORE DRYING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL SAT-
SUN-MON BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT...ALTHOUGH MINS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING AS RADAR REMAINS QUIET AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 8 KTS OR LESS AND LINGERING FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS. GIVEN NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A BIT OF
MOISTURE RETURN PER LATEST GUIDANCE...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME
GUIDANCE IS INTRODUCING IFR...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM...HAVE
KEPT WITH TEMPO MVFR. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS. WOULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY
AND SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WILL CONTINUE. SEAS IN THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE WITH DOMINANT
PERIODS AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DISCUSSION FROM
200 PM FOLLOWS...

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH TROUGH LINGERING IN
THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF
SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3
FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
RELAXED. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHEST WINDS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE
HOURS...UP TO AROUND 10 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S AND SSW
WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. A LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST GROUND SWELL PRESENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
DOWN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL CREATE E-TO-NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS A NE SURGE FOLLOWS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT...RISING TO 15 KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE
EASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN IN THE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND- WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A NE 5 SEC CHOP GROWING IN AMPLITUDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT FRIDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4
FT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 012324
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
724 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...VERY FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
WITH THIS EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. THE SEABREEZE IS EASY TO PICK OUT
ON RADAR IMAGERY ABOUT 40 MILES INLAND ACROSS SC...AND 20-40 MILES
INLAND OVER NC. BIGGEST ISSUE TO WATCH TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH HIGH
CLOUDINESS ADVECTS OVERHEAD FROM FLORIDA/SOUTH GEORGIA. DISCUSSION
FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS
BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
GEORGETOWN.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH W-SW FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO
ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF AREA AND THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN UPPER LEVEL S-SW
WINDS. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP
AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK NE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. AS A NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME IDENTIFIABLE
WITH STRONG HEATING WED AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WED...BUT THERE IS AN UPTICK
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND IN DEPTH OF MOISTURE LATE WED
NIGHT AND DURING THU. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THU. WILL CARRY UP TO 30
POPS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE THE NEED TO RAISE THESE
VALUES.

LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL BE WITH US DESPITE THE FACT THAT
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ENDED WITH THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BEACHES AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR AND DEVELOPING
LAND BREEZE WARRANT MAINLY LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE COOLEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD DROP JUST BELOW 70 WHILE THE
BEACHES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AS
THE REMNANT VORTICITY FROM LAST WEEKS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS VORTICITY IS MOST EASILY NOTED
IN 850MB PLAN-VIEW FORECASTS...AND ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIFFER WITH THEIR EVOLUTION...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MEANDER AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GEORGIA COAST...THEY WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVES TO CREATE TROUGHING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST IT WILL BE
IMPEDED BY SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

LIFT ATOP THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS US VERY WET SAT-MON...BUT HAS BEEN
OVERDONE RECENTLY...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF WHILE
MAINTAINING LOW CHC/SCHC POP FOR CONSISTENCY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO
BREAKDOWN ALLOWING FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST...BEFORE DRYING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL SAT-
SUN-MON BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT...ALTHOUGH MINS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING AS RADAR REMAINS QUIET AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 8 KTS OR LESS AND LINGERING FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS. GIVEN NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A BIT OF
MOISTURE RETURN PER LATEST GUIDANCE...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME
GUIDANCE IS INTRODUCING IFR...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM...HAVE
KEPT WITH TEMPO MVFR. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS. WOULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...SEABREEZE WINDS ARE FIRMLY FROM THE SOUTH.
THESE DIRECTIONS SHOULD VEER AROUND TO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH TROUGH LINGERING IN
THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF
SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3
FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
RELAXED. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHEST WINDS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE
HOURS...UP TO AROUND 10 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S AND SSW
WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. A LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST GROUND SWELL PRESENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
DOWN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL CREATE E-TO-NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS A NE SURGE FOLLOWS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT...RISING TO 15 KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE
EASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN IN THE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND- WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A NE 5 SEC CHOP GROWING IN AMPLITUDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT FRIDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4
FT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 012324
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
724 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...VERY FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
WITH THIS EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. THE SEABREEZE IS EASY TO PICK OUT
ON RADAR IMAGERY ABOUT 40 MILES INLAND ACROSS SC...AND 20-40 MILES
INLAND OVER NC. BIGGEST ISSUE TO WATCH TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH HIGH
CLOUDINESS ADVECTS OVERHEAD FROM FLORIDA/SOUTH GEORGIA. DISCUSSION
FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS
BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
GEORGETOWN.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH W-SW FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO
ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF AREA AND THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN UPPER LEVEL S-SW
WINDS. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP
AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK NE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. AS A NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME IDENTIFIABLE
WITH STRONG HEATING WED AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WED...BUT THERE IS AN UPTICK
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND IN DEPTH OF MOISTURE LATE WED
NIGHT AND DURING THU. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THU. WILL CARRY UP TO 30
POPS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE THE NEED TO RAISE THESE
VALUES.

LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL BE WITH US DESPITE THE FACT THAT
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ENDED WITH THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BEACHES AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR AND DEVELOPING
LAND BREEZE WARRANT MAINLY LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE COOLEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD DROP JUST BELOW 70 WHILE THE
BEACHES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AS
THE REMNANT VORTICITY FROM LAST WEEKS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS VORTICITY IS MOST EASILY NOTED
IN 850MB PLAN-VIEW FORECASTS...AND ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIFFER WITH THEIR EVOLUTION...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MEANDER AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GEORGIA COAST...THEY WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVES TO CREATE TROUGHING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST IT WILL BE
IMPEDED BY SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

LIFT ATOP THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS US VERY WET SAT-MON...BUT HAS BEEN
OVERDONE RECENTLY...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF WHILE
MAINTAINING LOW CHC/SCHC POP FOR CONSISTENCY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO
BREAKDOWN ALLOWING FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST...BEFORE DRYING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL SAT-
SUN-MON BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT...ALTHOUGH MINS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING AS RADAR REMAINS QUIET AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 8 KTS OR LESS AND LINGERING FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS. GIVEN NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A BIT OF
MOISTURE RETURN PER LATEST GUIDANCE...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME
GUIDANCE IS INTRODUCING IFR...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM...HAVE
KEPT WITH TEMPO MVFR. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS. WOULD
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...SEABREEZE WINDS ARE FIRMLY FROM THE SOUTH.
THESE DIRECTIONS SHOULD VEER AROUND TO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS...

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH TROUGH LINGERING IN
THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF
SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3
FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
RELAXED. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHEST WINDS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE
HOURS...UP TO AROUND 10 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S AND SSW
WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. A LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST GROUND SWELL PRESENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
DOWN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL CREATE E-TO-NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS A NE SURGE FOLLOWS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT...RISING TO 15 KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE
EASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN IN THE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND- WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A NE 5 SEC CHOP GROWING IN AMPLITUDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT FRIDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4
FT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 011911
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND INCREASING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAT WILL ABATE DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND
CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S.
LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOST SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHWR IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
OVER GEORGETOWN.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH W-SW FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO
ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF AREA AND THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN UPPER LEVEL S-SW
WINDS. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP
AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK NE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. AS A NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME IDENTIFIABLE
WITH STRONG HEATING WED AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WED...BUT THERE IS AN UPTICK
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND IN DEPTH OF MOISTURE LATE WED
NIGHT AND DURING THU. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THU. WILL CARRY UP TO 30
POPS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE THE NEED TO RAISE THESE
VALUES.

LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL BE WITH US DESPITE THE FACT THAT
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ENDED WITH THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BEACHES AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR AND DEVELOPING
LAND BREEZE WARRANT MAINLY LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE COOLEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD DROP JUST BELOW 70 WHILE THE
BEACHES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AS
THE REMNANT VORTICITY FROM LAST WEEKS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS VORTICITY IS MOST EASILY NOTED
IN 850MB PLAN-VIEW FORECASTS...AND ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIFFER WITH THEIR EVOLUTION...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MEANDER AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GEORGIA COAST...THEY WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVES TO CREATE TROUGHING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST IT WILL BE
IMPEDED BY SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

LIFT ATOP THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS US VERY WET SAT-MON...BUT HAS BEEN
OVERDONE RECENTLY...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF WHILE
MAINTAINING LOW CHC/SCHC POP FOR CONSISTENCY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO
BREAKDOWN ALLOWING FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST...BEFORE DRYING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL SAT-
SUN-MON BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT...ALTHOUGH MINS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH SCATTERED
CU MAINLY OVER PENDER COUNTY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA. TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ABOUT 15 KT...PROBABLY TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT
DENSE FOG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND.
WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW. HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RETURNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH
TROUGH LINGERING IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND
BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
RELAXED. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHEST WINDS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE
HOURS...UP TO AROUND 10 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S AND SSW
WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. A LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST GROUND SWELL PRESENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
DOWN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL CREATE E-TO-NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS A NE SURGE FOLLOWS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT...RISING TO 15 KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE
EASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN IN THE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND- WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A NE 5 SEC CHOP GROWING IN AMPLITUDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT FRIDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4
FT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL







000
FXUS62 KILM 011911
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND INCREASING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAT WILL ABATE DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND
CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S.
LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOST SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHWR IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
OVER GEORGETOWN.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH W-SW FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO
ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF AREA AND THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN UPPER LEVEL S-SW
WINDS. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP
AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK NE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. AS A NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME IDENTIFIABLE
WITH STRONG HEATING WED AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WED...BUT THERE IS AN UPTICK
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND IN DEPTH OF MOISTURE LATE WED
NIGHT AND DURING THU. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THU. WILL CARRY UP TO 30
POPS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE THE NEED TO RAISE THESE
VALUES.

LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL BE WITH US DESPITE THE FACT THAT
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ENDED WITH THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BEACHES AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR AND DEVELOPING
LAND BREEZE WARRANT MAINLY LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE COOLEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD DROP JUST BELOW 70 WHILE THE
BEACHES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AS
THE REMNANT VORTICITY FROM LAST WEEKS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS VORTICITY IS MOST EASILY NOTED
IN 850MB PLAN-VIEW FORECASTS...AND ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIFFER WITH THEIR EVOLUTION...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MEANDER AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GEORGIA COAST...THEY WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVES TO CREATE TROUGHING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST IT WILL BE
IMPEDED BY SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

LIFT ATOP THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS US VERY WET SAT-MON...BUT HAS BEEN
OVERDONE RECENTLY...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF WHILE
MAINTAINING LOW CHC/SCHC POP FOR CONSISTENCY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO
BREAKDOWN ALLOWING FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST...BEFORE DRYING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL SAT-
SUN-MON BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT...ALTHOUGH MINS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH SCATTERED
CU MAINLY OVER PENDER COUNTY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA. TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ABOUT 15 KT...PROBABLY TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT
DENSE FOG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND.
WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW. HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RETURNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH
TROUGH LINGERING IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND
BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
RELAXED. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHEST WINDS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE
HOURS...UP TO AROUND 10 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S AND SSW
WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. A LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST GROUND SWELL PRESENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
DOWN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL CREATE E-TO-NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS A NE SURGE FOLLOWS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT...RISING TO 15 KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE
EASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN IN THE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND- WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A NE 5 SEC CHOP GROWING IN AMPLITUDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT FRIDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4
FT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL






000
FXUS62 KILM 011904
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND INCREASING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAT WILL ABATE DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND
CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER
80S. LACK OF MOISTURE AND DEEP DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH DEEPER W-NW FLOW OF DRIER AIR AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
GA NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE
REMAINING SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS UP FROM GA NORTHEAST TO AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST REACHING INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE
TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN
PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK NE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. AS A NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME IDENTIFIABLE
WITH STRONG HEATING WED AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WED...BUT THERE IS AN UPTICK
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND IN DEPTH OF MOISTURE LATE WED
NIGHT AND DURING THU. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THU. WILL CARRY UP TO 30
POPS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE THE NEED TO RAISE THESE
VALUES.

LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL BE WITH US DESPITE THE FACT THAT
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ENDED WITH THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BEACHES AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR AND DEVELOPING
LAND BREEZE WARRANT MAINLY LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE COOLEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD DROP JUST BELOW 70 WHILE THE
BEACHES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AS
THE REMNANT VORTICITY FROM LAST WEEKS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS VORTICITY IS MOST EASILY NOTED
IN 850MB PLAN-VIEW FORECASTS...AND ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIFFER WITH THEIR EVOLUTION...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MEANDER AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GEORGIA COAST...THEY WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVES TO CREATE TROUGHING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST IT WILL BE
IMPEDED BY SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

LIFT ATOP THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS US VERY WET SAT-MON...BUT HAS BEEN
OVERDONE RECENTLY...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF WHILE
MAINTAINING LOW CHC/SCHC POP FOR CONSISTENCY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO
BREAKDOWN ALLOWING FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST...BEFORE DRYING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL SAT-
SUN-MON BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT...ALTHOUGH MINS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH SCATTERED
CU MAINLY OVER PENDER COUNTY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA. TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ABOUT 15 KT...PROBABLY TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT
DENSE FOG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND.
WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW. HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RETURNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH
TROUGH LINGERING IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND
BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
RELAXED. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHEST WINDS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE
HOURS...UP TO AROUND 10 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S AND SSW
WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. A LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST GROUND SWELL PRESENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
DOWN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL CREATE E-TO-NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS A NE SURGE FOLLOWS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT...RISING TO 15 KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE
EASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN IN THE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND- WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A NE 5 SEC CHOP GROWING IN AMPLITUDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT FRIDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4
FT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 011904
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND INCREASING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAT WILL ABATE DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND
CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER
80S. LACK OF MOISTURE AND DEEP DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH DEEPER W-NW FLOW OF DRIER AIR AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
GA NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE
REMAINING SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS UP FROM GA NORTHEAST TO AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST REACHING INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE
TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN
PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK NE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. AS A NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME IDENTIFIABLE
WITH STRONG HEATING WED AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WED...BUT THERE IS AN UPTICK
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND IN DEPTH OF MOISTURE LATE WED
NIGHT AND DURING THU. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THU. WILL CARRY UP TO 30
POPS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE THE NEED TO RAISE THESE
VALUES.

LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL BE WITH US DESPITE THE FACT THAT
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ENDED WITH THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BEACHES AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR AND DEVELOPING
LAND BREEZE WARRANT MAINLY LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE COOLEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD DROP JUST BELOW 70 WHILE THE
BEACHES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AS
THE REMNANT VORTICITY FROM LAST WEEKS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS VORTICITY IS MOST EASILY NOTED
IN 850MB PLAN-VIEW FORECASTS...AND ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIFFER WITH THEIR EVOLUTION...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MEANDER AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GEORGIA COAST...THEY WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVES TO CREATE TROUGHING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST IT WILL BE
IMPEDED BY SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

LIFT ATOP THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS US VERY WET SAT-MON...BUT HAS BEEN
OVERDONE RECENTLY...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF WHILE
MAINTAINING LOW CHC/SCHC POP FOR CONSISTENCY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO
BREAKDOWN ALLOWING FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST...BEFORE DRYING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL SAT-
SUN-MON BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT...ALTHOUGH MINS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH SCATTERED
CU MAINLY OVER PENDER COUNTY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA. TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ABOUT 15 KT...PROBABLY TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT
DENSE FOG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND.
WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW. HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RETURNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH
TROUGH LINGERING IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND
BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
RELAXED. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHEST WINDS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE
HOURS...UP TO AROUND 10 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S AND SSW
WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. A LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST GROUND SWELL PRESENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
DOWN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL CREATE E-TO-NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS A NE SURGE FOLLOWS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT...RISING TO 15 KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE
EASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN IN THE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND- WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A NE 5 SEC CHOP GROWING IN AMPLITUDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT FRIDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4
FT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 011904
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND INCREASING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAT WILL ABATE DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND
CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER
80S. LACK OF MOISTURE AND DEEP DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH DEEPER W-NW FLOW OF DRIER AIR AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
GA NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE
REMAINING SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS UP FROM GA NORTHEAST TO AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST REACHING INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE
TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN
PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK NE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. AS A NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME IDENTIFIABLE
WITH STRONG HEATING WED AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WED...BUT THERE IS AN UPTICK
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND IN DEPTH OF MOISTURE LATE WED
NIGHT AND DURING THU. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THU. WILL CARRY UP TO 30
POPS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE THE NEED TO RAISE THESE
VALUES.

LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL BE WITH US DESPITE THE FACT THAT
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ENDED WITH THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. HIGHS
BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BEACHES AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR AND DEVELOPING
LAND BREEZE WARRANT MAINLY LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE COOLEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD DROP JUST BELOW 70 WHILE THE
BEACHES BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AS
THE REMNANT VORTICITY FROM LAST WEEKS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS VORTICITY IS MOST EASILY NOTED
IN 850MB PLAN-VIEW FORECASTS...AND ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIFFER WITH THEIR EVOLUTION...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MEANDER AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GEORGIA COAST...THEY WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVES TO CREATE TROUGHING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST IT WILL BE
IMPEDED BY SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

LIFT ATOP THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS US VERY WET SAT-MON...BUT HAS BEEN
OVERDONE RECENTLY...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF WHILE
MAINTAINING LOW CHC/SCHC POP FOR CONSISTENCY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO
BREAKDOWN ALLOWING FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST...BEFORE DRYING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL SAT-
SUN-MON BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT...ALTHOUGH MINS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH SCATTERED
CU MAINLY OVER PENDER COUNTY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA. TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ABOUT 15 KT...PROBABLY TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT
DENSE FOG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND.
WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW. HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RETURNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH
TROUGH LINGERING IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND
BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
RELAXED. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHEST WINDS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE
HOURS...UP TO AROUND 10 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S AND SSW
WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. A LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST GROUND SWELL PRESENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
DOWN FROM THE NE. THIS WILL CREATE E-TO-NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS A NE SURGE FOLLOWS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT...RISING TO 15 KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE
EASING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN IN THE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND- WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A NE 5 SEC CHOP GROWING IN AMPLITUDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT FRIDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4
FT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 011832
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
232 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND
CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER
80S. LACK OF MOISTURE AND DEEP DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH DEEPER W-NW FLOW OF DRIER AIR AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
GA NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE
REMAINING SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS UP FROM GA NORTHEAST TO AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST REACHING INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE
TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN
PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH SCATTERED
CU MAINLY OVER PENDER COUNTY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA. TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ABOUT 15 KTS...PROBABLY TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT DENSE
FOG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND. WEDNESDAY...A NICE
DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW. HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH
TROUGH LINGERING IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND
BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 011832
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
232 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND
CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER
80S. LACK OF MOISTURE AND DEEP DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH DEEPER W-NW FLOW OF DRIER AIR AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
GA NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE
REMAINING SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS UP FROM GA NORTHEAST TO AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST REACHING INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE
TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN
PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH SCATTERED
CU MAINLY OVER PENDER COUNTY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA. TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ABOUT 15 KTS...PROBABLY TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT DENSE
FOG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND. WEDNESDAY...A NICE
DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW. HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH
TROUGH LINGERING IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND
BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 011832
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
232 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND
CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER
80S. LACK OF MOISTURE AND DEEP DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH DEEPER W-NW FLOW OF DRIER AIR AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
GA NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE
REMAINING SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS UP FROM GA NORTHEAST TO AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST REACHING INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE
TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN
PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH SCATTERED
CU MAINLY OVER PENDER COUNTY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA. TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ABOUT 15 KTS...PROBABLY TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT DENSE
FOG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND. WEDNESDAY...A NICE
DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW. HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH
TROUGH LINGERING IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND
BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 011832
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
232 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND
CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER
80S. LACK OF MOISTURE AND DEEP DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR
IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WITH DEEPER W-NW FLOW OF DRIER AIR AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
GA NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE
REMAINING SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS UP FROM GA NORTHEAST TO AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST REACHING INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE
TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN
PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH SCATTERED
CU MAINLY OVER PENDER COUNTY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA. TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ABOUT 15 KTS...PROBABLY TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT DENSE
FOG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND. WEDNESDAY...A NICE
DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW. HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH
TROUGH LINGERING IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND
BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 011602
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1202 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...AN AREA OF STRATUS REACHING DOWN ALONG THE
NC COAST TO THE TIP OF CAPE FEAR WAS BREAKING UP LEAVING A DECENT
STRATOCU FIELD. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP LEAVING AN
OTHERWISE SUNNY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY AFTN. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN FROM LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE TIP OF
CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER OFFSHORE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL EXTEND UP
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A DEEPER W-NW FLOW OF DRIER AIR AS
EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING WITH THE DEEP
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY WELL OFFSHORE.

SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE SOME AFTN
CU..ESPECIALLY ALONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. OVERALL
EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE..LEADING TO TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO
UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE AND DEEP DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
KEEP MOST SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHWR IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE. EXPECT A DRY NIGHT...BUT
DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE LOCKED IN
TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN
PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...11U-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL HANG AROUND
ABOUT AN TWO TO THREE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL MIX OUT AFTER
THAT. LBT AND ILM WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED...LIKELY NOT AFFECTING
FLO AND MYR...WITH CRE ON THE PERIPHERY. VERY LITTLE GRADIENT
TODAY...WEAK NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT FIRST...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH
TROUGH LINGERING IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND MANAGEABLE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THEY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL DECAY FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO RIGHT
AROUND 2 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 011602
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1202 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...AN AREA OF STRATUS REACHING DOWN ALONG THE
NC COAST TO THE TIP OF CAPE FEAR WAS BREAKING UP LEAVING A DECENT
STRATOCU FIELD. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP LEAVING AN
OTHERWISE SUNNY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY AFTN. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN FROM LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE TIP OF
CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER OFFSHORE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL EXTEND UP
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A DEEPER W-NW FLOW OF DRIER AIR AS
EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING WITH THE DEEP
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY WELL OFFSHORE.

SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE SOME AFTN
CU..ESPECIALLY ALONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. OVERALL
EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE..LEADING TO TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO
UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE AND DEEP DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
KEEP MOST SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHWR IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE. EXPECT A DRY NIGHT...BUT
DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE LOCKED IN
TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN
PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...11U-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL HANG AROUND
ABOUT AN TWO TO THREE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL MIX OUT AFTER
THAT. LBT AND ILM WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED...LIKELY NOT AFFECTING
FLO AND MYR...WITH CRE ON THE PERIPHERY. VERY LITTLE GRADIENT
TODAY...WEAK NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT FIRST...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH
TROUGH LINGERING IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND MANAGEABLE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THEY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL DECAY FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO RIGHT
AROUND 2 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 011022
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AMORPHOUS...ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE NEAR
TERM WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OFFSHORE
WITHIN AN OTHERWISE BROAD AND FLAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
ARE OF RIDGING PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE SHOW DRY
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM AS THE DEEP
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AND WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AT RIGHT AROUND 70 WE CAN EXPECT FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE HAS ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S OVER OUR NC
COUNTIES AND RIGHT AROUND 90 FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. LACK OF MOISTURE
ALOFT AND ANY STRONG TRIGGERS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP A
HEALTHY CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AFTER AN EXTENSIVE EARLY MORNING
STRATUS DECK BURNS OFF. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...11U-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL HANG AROUND
ABOUT AN TWO TO THREE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL MIX OUT AFTER
THAT. LBT AND ILM WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED...LIKELY NOT AFFECTING
FLO AND MYR...WITH CRE ON THE PERIPHERY. VERY LITTLE GRADIENT
TODAY...WEAK NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT FIRST...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND MANAGEABLE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL DECAY
FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO RIGHT AROUND 2 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 011022
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AMORPHOUS...ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE NEAR
TERM WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OFFSHORE
WITHIN AN OTHERWISE BROAD AND FLAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
ARE OF RIDGING PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE SHOW DRY
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM AS THE DEEP
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AND WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AT RIGHT AROUND 70 WE CAN EXPECT FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE HAS ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S OVER OUR NC
COUNTIES AND RIGHT AROUND 90 FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. LACK OF MOISTURE
ALOFT AND ANY STRONG TRIGGERS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP A
HEALTHY CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AFTER AN EXTENSIVE EARLY MORNING
STRATUS DECK BURNS OFF. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...11U-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL HANG AROUND
ABOUT AN TWO TO THREE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL MIX OUT AFTER
THAT. LBT AND ILM WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED...LIKELY NOT AFFECTING
FLO AND MYR...WITH CRE ON THE PERIPHERY. VERY LITTLE GRADIENT
TODAY...WEAK NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT FIRST...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND MANAGEABLE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL DECAY
FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO RIGHT AROUND 2 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 011022
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AMORPHOUS...ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE NEAR
TERM WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OFFSHORE
WITHIN AN OTHERWISE BROAD AND FLAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
ARE OF RIDGING PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE SHOW DRY
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM AS THE DEEP
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AND WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AT RIGHT AROUND 70 WE CAN EXPECT FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE HAS ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S OVER OUR NC
COUNTIES AND RIGHT AROUND 90 FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. LACK OF MOISTURE
ALOFT AND ANY STRONG TRIGGERS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP A
HEALTHY CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AFTER AN EXTENSIVE EARLY MORNING
STRATUS DECK BURNS OFF. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...11U-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL HANG AROUND
ABOUT AN TWO TO THREE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL MIX OUT AFTER
THAT. LBT AND ILM WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED...LIKELY NOT AFFECTING
FLO AND MYR...WITH CRE ON THE PERIPHERY. VERY LITTLE GRADIENT
TODAY...WEAK NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT FIRST...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND MANAGEABLE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL DECAY
FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO RIGHT AROUND 2 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 011022
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AMORPHOUS...ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE NEAR
TERM WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OFFSHORE
WITHIN AN OTHERWISE BROAD AND FLAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
ARE OF RIDGING PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE SHOW DRY
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM AS THE DEEP
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AND WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AT RIGHT AROUND 70 WE CAN EXPECT FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE HAS ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S OVER OUR NC
COUNTIES AND RIGHT AROUND 90 FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. LACK OF MOISTURE
ALOFT AND ANY STRONG TRIGGERS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP A
HEALTHY CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AFTER AN EXTENSIVE EARLY MORNING
STRATUS DECK BURNS OFF. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...11U-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL HANG AROUND
ABOUT AN TWO TO THREE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL MIX OUT AFTER
THAT. LBT AND ILM WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED...LIKELY NOT AFFECTING
FLO AND MYR...WITH CRE ON THE PERIPHERY. VERY LITTLE GRADIENT
TODAY...WEAK NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT FIRST...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND MANAGEABLE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL DECAY
FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO RIGHT AROUND 2 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 011016
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
616 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AMORPHOUS...ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE NEAR
TERM WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OFFSHORE
WITHIN AN OTHERWISE BROAD AND FLAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
ARE OF RIDGING PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE SHOW DRY
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM AS THE DEEP
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AND WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AT RIGHT AROUND 70 WE CAN EXPECT FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE HAS ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S OVER OUR NC
COUNTIES AND RIGHT AROUND 90 FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. LACK OF MOISTURE
ALOFT AND ANY STRONG TRIGGERS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP A
HEALTHY CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AFTER AN EXTENSIVE EARLY MORNING
STRATUS DECK BURNS OFF. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR ON TAP OVERNIGHT WELL INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW FEW/SCT LOW CIGS MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT OVERALL SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AND AS A RESULT ANTICIPATE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING WHICH
FEATURE WILL PREVAIL...THUS HAVE KEPT A MIXTURE IN GOING FORECAST
ATTM. ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND MANAGEABLE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL DECAY
FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO RIGHT AROUND 2 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 011016
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
616 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AMORPHOUS...ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE NEAR
TERM WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OFFSHORE
WITHIN AN OTHERWISE BROAD AND FLAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
ARE OF RIDGING PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE SHOW DRY
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM AS THE DEEP
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AND WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AT RIGHT AROUND 70 WE CAN EXPECT FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE HAS ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S OVER OUR NC
COUNTIES AND RIGHT AROUND 90 FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. LACK OF MOISTURE
ALOFT AND ANY STRONG TRIGGERS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP A
HEALTHY CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AFTER AN EXTENSIVE EARLY MORNING
STRATUS DECK BURNS OFF. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR ON TAP OVERNIGHT WELL INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW FEW/SCT LOW CIGS MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT OVERALL SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AND AS A RESULT ANTICIPATE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING WHICH
FEATURE WILL PREVAIL...THUS HAVE KEPT A MIXTURE IN GOING FORECAST
ATTM. ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND MANAGEABLE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL DECAY
FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO RIGHT AROUND 2 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 011016
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
616 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AMORPHOUS...ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE NEAR
TERM WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OFFSHORE
WITHIN AN OTHERWISE BROAD AND FLAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
ARE OF RIDGING PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE SHOW DRY
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM AS THE DEEP
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AND WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AT RIGHT AROUND 70 WE CAN EXPECT FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE HAS ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S OVER OUR NC
COUNTIES AND RIGHT AROUND 90 FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. LACK OF MOISTURE
ALOFT AND ANY STRONG TRIGGERS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP A
HEALTHY CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AFTER AN EXTENSIVE EARLY MORNING
STRATUS DECK BURNS OFF. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR ON TAP OVERNIGHT WELL INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW FEW/SCT LOW CIGS MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT OVERALL SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AND AS A RESULT ANTICIPATE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING WHICH
FEATURE WILL PREVAIL...THUS HAVE KEPT A MIXTURE IN GOING FORECAST
ATTM. ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND MANAGEABLE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL DECAY
FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO RIGHT AROUND 2 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 011016
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
616 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AMORPHOUS...ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE NEAR
TERM WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OFFSHORE
WITHIN AN OTHERWISE BROAD AND FLAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
ARE OF RIDGING PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE SHOW DRY
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM AS THE DEEP
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AND WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AT RIGHT AROUND 70 WE CAN EXPECT FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE HAS ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S OVER OUR NC
COUNTIES AND RIGHT AROUND 90 FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. LACK OF MOISTURE
ALOFT AND ANY STRONG TRIGGERS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP A
HEALTHY CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AFTER AN EXTENSIVE EARLY MORNING
STRATUS DECK BURNS OFF. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR ON TAP OVERNIGHT WELL INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW FEW/SCT LOW CIGS MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT OVERALL SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AND AS A RESULT ANTICIPATE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING WHICH
FEATURE WILL PREVAIL...THUS HAVE KEPT A MIXTURE IN GOING FORECAST
ATTM. ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND MANAGEABLE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL DECAY
FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO RIGHT AROUND 2 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 010711
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
311 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...AMORPHOUS...ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
DOMINATE THE NEAR TERM WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING OFFSHORE WITHIN AN OTHERWISE BROAD AND FLAT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE
UPPER LEVELS A BROAD ARE OF RIDGING PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND GUIDANCE SHOW DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE
NEAR TERM AS THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY
PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
LEVELS AND WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING AT RIGHT AROUND 70 WE CAN
EXPECT FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE HAS ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S OVER OUR NC COUNTIES AND RIGHT AROUND 90 FOR OUR SC COUNTIES.
LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND ANY STRONG TRIGGERS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY
DAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HELP DEVELOP A HEALTHY CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AFTER AN EXTENSIVE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS DECK BURNS OFF. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
TEH COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION IS
VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR ALOFT.
CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR ON TAP OVERNIGHT WELL INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW FEW/SCT LOW CIGS MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT OVERALL SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AND AS A RESULT ANTICIPATE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING WHICH
FEATURE WILL PREVAIL...THUS HAVE KEPT A MIXTURE IN GOING FORECAST
ATTM. ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WILL
LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND MANAGEABLE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THEY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL DECAY FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO RIGHT
AROUND 2 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...ELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE
SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A PASSING
SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS AROUND
ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 010711
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
311 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...AMORPHOUS...ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
DOMINATE THE NEAR TERM WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING OFFSHORE WITHIN AN OTHERWISE BROAD AND FLAT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE
UPPER LEVELS A BROAD ARE OF RIDGING PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND GUIDANCE SHOW DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE
NEAR TERM AS THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY
PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
LEVELS AND WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING AT RIGHT AROUND 70 WE CAN
EXPECT FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE HAS ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S OVER OUR NC COUNTIES AND RIGHT AROUND 90 FOR OUR SC COUNTIES.
LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND ANY STRONG TRIGGERS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY
DAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HELP DEVELOP A HEALTHY CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AFTER AN EXTENSIVE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS DECK BURNS OFF. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
TEH COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION IS
VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR ALOFT.
CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR ON TAP OVERNIGHT WELL INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW FEW/SCT LOW CIGS MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT OVERALL SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AND AS A RESULT ANTICIPATE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING WHICH
FEATURE WILL PREVAIL...THUS HAVE KEPT A MIXTURE IN GOING FORECAST
ATTM. ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WILL
LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND MANAGEABLE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THEY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL DECAY FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO RIGHT
AROUND 2 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...ELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE
SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A PASSING
SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS AROUND
ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 010544
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

INLAND SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUES
OFFSHORE...MOVING EASTWARD. BASED ON SURFACE WIND DIRECTIONS AT
BUOYS AND MESONET SITES THE LOW APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED TO A
POSITION 10-15 MILES EAST OF TOPSAIL ISLAND. THE LATEST RUC MODEL
ISN`T BAD AND WAS BLENDED INTO OUR WIND GRIDDED DATASET FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED A FEW HOURS MORE QUICKLY THAN
ANTICIPATED. CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ELIZABETHTOWN
TO WHITEVILLE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT TO COVER
MOST OF SE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOME PARTS OF NE SOUTH CAROLINA AS
WELL. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CHANNEL IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING/EASTERN EDGE OF
THE DRY AIR NOW ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL HOWEVER AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CENTERED JUST EAST
OF CAPE FEAR. THE 12/18Z MODELS WERE QUITE POOR WITH THE ACCURACY
OF THE POSITION OF THIS LOW. OF ALL THE MODELS AVAILABLE TO US
ONLY THE 12Z WRF-NMM AND 12Z WRF-ARW SHOWED THE LOW IN THE PROPER
POSITION AT 21Z. THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE BASIS FOR THE UPDATED
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

THE LOW SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND AWAY FROM
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. RAINFALL SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...LINGERING FOR COASTAL PENDER COUNTY AND THE
ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS THE LONGEST. AN ADDITIONAL ONE-HALF INCH TO
ONE INCH OF RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY FALL FROM WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
TO TOPSAIL ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST...CLEAR SKIES ADVANCING IN FROM
THE WEST SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
INDICATING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FROM THE
NORTH...SPREADING A DECK OF LOW STRATUS INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHERE THESE LOW CLOUDS
DO NOT REACH...BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
INTERSECT WITH LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE AND WE CAN EXPECT AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP. MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA`S PEE
DEE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TUE.
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WILL BE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY WED. A RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL
ALLOW A NW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH LATE WED NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND
THIS IN AND OF ITSELF WILL BE GOOD REASON TO KEEP THE POPS IN
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY...LATE TUE
NIGHT AND WED MORNING. HOWEVER...IT MAY END UP THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND CERTAINLY THE HEAVIEST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WILL BE OFFSHORE. WILL ALSO TRY TO
CAPTURE THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WED
NIGHT WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE FIRST FULL DAY WHERE THE
AREA IS NO LONGER DEALING WITH ANY REMNANTS OF ERIKA. PW DROPS TO
ABOUT 1.6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THERE WILL BE A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GFS NOW SHOWS A
VERY WEAK ATTENDANT SURFACE FEATURE AND SO FEEL THAT THE LOW END
SCATTERED (30 POPS) THAT WE HAVE IN THE FORECAST IS JUST FINE. QPF
PROSPECTS WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE LOWER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
FORCING. ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE CROSSES ON FRIDAY BUT IN MORE OF
WESTERLY RATHER THAN NORTHWESTERLY SOURCE WHICH MAY FAVOR BETTER
RAIN CHANCES DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AT LEAST ACCORDING TO ECMWF. GFS
HAS MORE OF A REPEAT OF THURSDAY. LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS CENTER
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE SAME WILL HOLD TRUE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL BRING A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA THAT OFTEN LEADS TO
TROPICAL BLUE SKIES LADEN WITH TOWERING CU AND ALSO A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR ON TAP OVERNIGHT WELL INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW FEW/SCT LOW CIGS MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT OVERALL SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AND AS A RESULT ANTICIPATE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING WHICH
FEATURE WILL PREVAIL...THUS HAVE KEPT A MIXTURE IN GOING FORECAST
ATTM. ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 10-15 MILES
EAST OF TOPSAIL ISLAND AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS BUT SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A BELT OF STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OFFSHORE AHEAD
OF THE LOW HAS BUILT SEA HEIGHTS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY TO
5 FEET...WITH BUOYS CLOSE TO THE COAST STILL REPORTING 3-4 FEET.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

USING RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED JUST EAST OF CAPE FEAR AT 7 PM. OF ALL THE MODELS
AVAILABLE TO US THE TWO THAT SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE ARE THE 12Z WRF-NMM
AND 12Z WRF-ARW. THESE MODELS ARE THE BASIS FOR THIS EVENING
UPDATE. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WE`VE GOT A FEW MORE
HOURS OF INTERESTING WEATHER AS SWIRLING WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. SEAS HAVE
BUILT TO A SOLID 4 FEET NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND THERE
SHOULD BE SOME 5-FOOTERS DEVELOPING SHORTLY ACCORDING TO OUR LOCAL
WAVE MODEL USING UPDATED WIND FORECASTS. AN EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE HAS BEEN HOISTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. AFTER MIDNIGHT SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE REGION TO 2-3 FEET.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS TO
10 KT OR LESS. SW TO S WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE BOTH
DAYS SHOULD BECOME MORE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING
DUE TO A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2
FT...BUT UP TO 3 FT TUE. A WEAK 8 TO 10 SECOND SE SWELL WILL
PERSIST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT JUST 10 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. IT MAY STRUGGLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY TO FIND AN ESTABLISHED DIRECTION HOWEVER THOUGH NORTH AND
EAST COMPONENTS WILL TEND TO BE FAVORED. THIS WILL BE FORTIFIED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONGER HIGH GETS ESTABLISHED
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN U.S. BETWEEN THE LENGTHENING SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL FETCH ON SATURDAY THE WAVE FORECAST MAY RISE FROM 2 TO 2-3
FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/MBB





000
FXUS62 KILM 010544
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

INLAND SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUES
OFFSHORE...MOVING EASTWARD. BASED ON SURFACE WIND DIRECTIONS AT
BUOYS AND MESONET SITES THE LOW APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED TO A
POSITION 10-15 MILES EAST OF TOPSAIL ISLAND. THE LATEST RUC MODEL
ISN`T BAD AND WAS BLENDED INTO OUR WIND GRIDDED DATASET FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED A FEW HOURS MORE QUICKLY THAN
ANTICIPATED. CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ELIZABETHTOWN
TO WHITEVILLE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT TO COVER
MOST OF SE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOME PARTS OF NE SOUTH CAROLINA AS
WELL. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CHANNEL IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING/EASTERN EDGE OF
THE DRY AIR NOW ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL HOWEVER AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CENTERED JUST EAST
OF CAPE FEAR. THE 12/18Z MODELS WERE QUITE POOR WITH THE ACCURACY
OF THE POSITION OF THIS LOW. OF ALL THE MODELS AVAILABLE TO US
ONLY THE 12Z WRF-NMM AND 12Z WRF-ARW SHOWED THE LOW IN THE PROPER
POSITION AT 21Z. THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE BASIS FOR THE UPDATED
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

THE LOW SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND AWAY FROM
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. RAINFALL SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...LINGERING FOR COASTAL PENDER COUNTY AND THE
ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS THE LONGEST. AN ADDITIONAL ONE-HALF INCH TO
ONE INCH OF RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY FALL FROM WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
TO TOPSAIL ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST...CLEAR SKIES ADVANCING IN FROM
THE WEST SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
INDICATING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FROM THE
NORTH...SPREADING A DECK OF LOW STRATUS INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHERE THESE LOW CLOUDS
DO NOT REACH...BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
INTERSECT WITH LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE AND WE CAN EXPECT AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP. MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA`S PEE
DEE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TUE.
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WILL BE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY WED. A RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL
ALLOW A NW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH LATE WED NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND
THIS IN AND OF ITSELF WILL BE GOOD REASON TO KEEP THE POPS IN
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY...LATE TUE
NIGHT AND WED MORNING. HOWEVER...IT MAY END UP THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND CERTAINLY THE HEAVIEST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WILL BE OFFSHORE. WILL ALSO TRY TO
CAPTURE THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WED
NIGHT WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE FIRST FULL DAY WHERE THE
AREA IS NO LONGER DEALING WITH ANY REMNANTS OF ERIKA. PW DROPS TO
ABOUT 1.6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THERE WILL BE A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GFS NOW SHOWS A
VERY WEAK ATTENDANT SURFACE FEATURE AND SO FEEL THAT THE LOW END
SCATTERED (30 POPS) THAT WE HAVE IN THE FORECAST IS JUST FINE. QPF
PROSPECTS WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE LOWER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
FORCING. ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE CROSSES ON FRIDAY BUT IN MORE OF
WESTERLY RATHER THAN NORTHWESTERLY SOURCE WHICH MAY FAVOR BETTER
RAIN CHANCES DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AT LEAST ACCORDING TO ECMWF. GFS
HAS MORE OF A REPEAT OF THURSDAY. LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS CENTER
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE SAME WILL HOLD TRUE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL BRING A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA THAT OFTEN LEADS TO
TROPICAL BLUE SKIES LADEN WITH TOWERING CU AND ALSO A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR ON TAP OVERNIGHT WELL INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW FEW/SCT LOW CIGS MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT OVERALL SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AND AS A RESULT ANTICIPATE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING WHICH
FEATURE WILL PREVAIL...THUS HAVE KEPT A MIXTURE IN GOING FORECAST
ATTM. ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 10-15 MILES
EAST OF TOPSAIL ISLAND AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS BUT SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A BELT OF STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OFFSHORE AHEAD
OF THE LOW HAS BUILT SEA HEIGHTS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY TO
5 FEET...WITH BUOYS CLOSE TO THE COAST STILL REPORTING 3-4 FEET.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

USING RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED JUST EAST OF CAPE FEAR AT 7 PM. OF ALL THE MODELS
AVAILABLE TO US THE TWO THAT SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE ARE THE 12Z WRF-NMM
AND 12Z WRF-ARW. THESE MODELS ARE THE BASIS FOR THIS EVENING
UPDATE. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WE`VE GOT A FEW MORE
HOURS OF INTERESTING WEATHER AS SWIRLING WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. SEAS HAVE
BUILT TO A SOLID 4 FEET NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND THERE
SHOULD BE SOME 5-FOOTERS DEVELOPING SHORTLY ACCORDING TO OUR LOCAL
WAVE MODEL USING UPDATED WIND FORECASTS. AN EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE HAS BEEN HOISTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. AFTER MIDNIGHT SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE REGION TO 2-3 FEET.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS TO
10 KT OR LESS. SW TO S WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE BOTH
DAYS SHOULD BECOME MORE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING
DUE TO A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2
FT...BUT UP TO 3 FT TUE. A WEAK 8 TO 10 SECOND SE SWELL WILL
PERSIST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT JUST 10 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. IT MAY STRUGGLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY TO FIND AN ESTABLISHED DIRECTION HOWEVER THOUGH NORTH AND
EAST COMPONENTS WILL TEND TO BE FAVORED. THIS WILL BE FORTIFIED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONGER HIGH GETS ESTABLISHED
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN U.S. BETWEEN THE LENGTHENING SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL FETCH ON SATURDAY THE WAVE FORECAST MAY RISE FROM 2 TO 2-3
FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 010246
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1046 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...INLAND SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED BUT ISOLATED
ACTIVITY CONTINUES OFFSHORE...MOVING EASTWARD. BASED ON SURFACE
WIND DIRECTIONS AT BUOYS AND MESONET SITES THE LOW APPEARS TO
HAVE MOVED TO A POSITION 10-15 MILES EAST OF TOPSAIL ISLAND. THE
LATEST RUC MODEL ISN`T BAD AND WAS BLENDED INTO OUR WIND GRIDDED
DATASET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED A FEW HOURS MORE QUICKLY THAN
ANTICIPATED. CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ELIZABETHTOWN
TO WHITEVILLE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT TO COVER
MOST OF SE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOME PARTS OF NE SOUTH CAROLINA AS
WELL. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CHANNEL IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING/EASTERN EDGE OF
THE DRY AIR NOW ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL HOWEVER AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CENTERED JUST EAST
OF CAPE FEAR. THE 12/18Z MODELS WERE QUITE POOR WITH THE ACCURACY
OF THE POSITION OF THIS LOW. OF ALL THE MODELS AVAILABLE TO US
ONLY THE 12Z WRF-NMM AND 12Z WRF-ARW SHOWED THE LOW IN THE PROPER
POSITION AT 21Z. THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE BASIS FOR THE UPDATED
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

THE LOW SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND AWAY FROM
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. RAINFALL SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...LINGERING FOR COASTAL PENDER COUNTY AND THE
ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS THE LONGEST. AN ADDITIONAL ONE-HALF INCH TO
ONE INCH OF RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY FALL FROM WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
TO TOPSAIL ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST...CLEAR SKIES ADVANCING IN FROM
THE WEST SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
INDICATING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FROM THE
NORTH...SPREADING A DECK OF LOW STRATUS INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHERE THESE LOW CLOUDS
DO NOT REACH...BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
INTERSECT WITH LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE AND WE CAN EXPECT AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP. MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA`S PEE
DEE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TUE.
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WILL BE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY WED. A RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL
ALLOW A NW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH LATE WED NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND
THIS IN AND OF ITSELF WILL BE GOOD REASON TO KEEP THE POPS IN
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY...LATE TUE
NIGHT AND WED MORNING. HOWEVER...IT MAY END UP THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND CERTAINLY THE HEAVIEST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WILL BE OFFSHORE. WILL ALSO TRY TO
CAPTURE THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WED
NIGHT WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE FIRST FULL DAY WHERE THE
AREA IS NO LONGER DEALING WITH ANY REMNANTS OF ERIKA. PW DROPS TO
ABOUT 1.6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THERE WILL BE A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GFS NOW SHOWS A
VERY WEAK ATTENDANT SURFACE FEATURE AND SO FEEL THAT THE LOW END
SCATTERED (30 POPS) THAT WE HAVE IN THE FORECAST IS JUST FINE. QPF
PROSPECTS WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE LOWER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
FORCING. ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE CROSSES ON FRIDAY BUT IN MORE OF
WESTERLY RATHER THAN NORTHWESTERLY SOURCE WHICH MAY FAVOR BETTER
RAIN CHANCES DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AT LEAST ACCORDING TO ECMWF. GFS
HAS MORE OF A REPEAT OF THURSDAY. LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS CENTER
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE SAME WILL HOLD TRUE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL BRING A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA THAT OFTEN LEADS TO
TROPICAL BLUE SKIES LADEN WITH TOWERING CU AND ALSO A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR ON TAP TONIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...CURRENTLY AFFECTING KILM...AS SEEN BY LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND FOR SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...AS ALREADY SEEN INLAND ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHER THAN INTERMITTENTLY LINGERING FEW/SCT MID
CLOUDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE RETURN
OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING WHICH FEATURE WILL PREVAIL...THUS HAVE KEPT A MIXTURE IN
GOING FORECAST ATTM. ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED 10-15 MILES EAST OF TOPSAIL ISLAND AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS BUT SHOULD
END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A BELT OF STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS BUILT SEA HEIGHTS AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY TO 5 FEET...WITH BUOYS CLOSE TO THE COAST
STILL REPORTING 3-4 FEET. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

USING RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED JUST EAST OF CAPE FEAR AT 7 PM. OF ALL THE MODELS
AVAILABLE TO US THE TWO THAT SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE ARE THE 12Z WRF-NMM
AND 12Z WRF-ARW. THESE MODELS ARE THE BASIS FOR THIS EVENING
UPDATE. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WE`VE GOT A FEW MORE
HOURS OF INTERESTING WEATHER AS SWIRLING WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. SEAS HAVE
BUILT TO A SOLID 4 FEET NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND THERE
SHOULD BE SOME 5-FOOTERS DEVELOPING SHORTLY ACCORDING TO OUR LOCAL
WAVE MODEL USING UPDATED WIND FORECASTS. AN EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE HAS BEEN HOISTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. AFTER MIDNIGHT SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE REGION TO 2-3 FEET.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS TO
10 KT OR LESS. SW TO S WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE BOTH
DAYS SHOULD BECOME MORE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING
DUE TO A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2
FT...BUT UP TO 3 FT TUE. A WEAK 8 TO 10 SECOND SE SWELL WILL
PERSIST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT JUST 10 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. IT MAY STRUGGLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY TO FIND AN ESTABLISHED DIRECTION HOWEVER THOUGH NORTH AND
EAST COMPONENTS WILL TEND TO BE FAVORED. THIS WILL BE FORTIFIED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONGER HIGH GETS ESTABLISHED
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN U.S. BETWEEN THE LENGTHENING SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL FETCH ON SATURDAY THE WAVE FORECAST MAY RISE FROM 2 TO 2-3
FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 010246
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1046 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...INLAND SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED BUT ISOLATED
ACTIVITY CONTINUES OFFSHORE...MOVING EASTWARD. BASED ON SURFACE
WIND DIRECTIONS AT BUOYS AND MESONET SITES THE LOW APPEARS TO
HAVE MOVED TO A POSITION 10-15 MILES EAST OF TOPSAIL ISLAND. THE
LATEST RUC MODEL ISN`T BAD AND WAS BLENDED INTO OUR WIND GRIDDED
DATASET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED A FEW HOURS MORE QUICKLY THAN
ANTICIPATED. CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ELIZABETHTOWN
TO WHITEVILLE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT TO COVER
MOST OF SE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOME PARTS OF NE SOUTH CAROLINA AS
WELL. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CHANNEL IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING/EASTERN EDGE OF
THE DRY AIR NOW ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL HOWEVER AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CENTERED JUST EAST
OF CAPE FEAR. THE 12/18Z MODELS WERE QUITE POOR WITH THE ACCURACY
OF THE POSITION OF THIS LOW. OF ALL THE MODELS AVAILABLE TO US
ONLY THE 12Z WRF-NMM AND 12Z WRF-ARW SHOWED THE LOW IN THE PROPER
POSITION AT 21Z. THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE BASIS FOR THE UPDATED
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

THE LOW SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND AWAY FROM
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. RAINFALL SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...LINGERING FOR COASTAL PENDER COUNTY AND THE
ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS THE LONGEST. AN ADDITIONAL ONE-HALF INCH TO
ONE INCH OF RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY FALL FROM WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
TO TOPSAIL ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST...CLEAR SKIES ADVANCING IN FROM
THE WEST SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
INDICATING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FROM THE
NORTH...SPREADING A DECK OF LOW STRATUS INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHERE THESE LOW CLOUDS
DO NOT REACH...BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
INTERSECT WITH LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE AND WE CAN EXPECT AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP. MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA`S PEE
DEE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TUE.
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WILL BE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY WED. A RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL
ALLOW A NW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH LATE WED NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND
THIS IN AND OF ITSELF WILL BE GOOD REASON TO KEEP THE POPS IN
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY...LATE TUE
NIGHT AND WED MORNING. HOWEVER...IT MAY END UP THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND CERTAINLY THE HEAVIEST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WILL BE OFFSHORE. WILL ALSO TRY TO
CAPTURE THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WED
NIGHT WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE FIRST FULL DAY WHERE THE
AREA IS NO LONGER DEALING WITH ANY REMNANTS OF ERIKA. PW DROPS TO
ABOUT 1.6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THERE WILL BE A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GFS NOW SHOWS A
VERY WEAK ATTENDANT SURFACE FEATURE AND SO FEEL THAT THE LOW END
SCATTERED (30 POPS) THAT WE HAVE IN THE FORECAST IS JUST FINE. QPF
PROSPECTS WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE LOWER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
FORCING. ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE CROSSES ON FRIDAY BUT IN MORE OF
WESTERLY RATHER THAN NORTHWESTERLY SOURCE WHICH MAY FAVOR BETTER
RAIN CHANCES DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AT LEAST ACCORDING TO ECMWF. GFS
HAS MORE OF A REPEAT OF THURSDAY. LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS CENTER
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE SAME WILL HOLD TRUE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL BRING A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA THAT OFTEN LEADS TO
TROPICAL BLUE SKIES LADEN WITH TOWERING CU AND ALSO A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR ON TAP TONIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...CURRENTLY AFFECTING KILM...AS SEEN BY LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND FOR SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...AS ALREADY SEEN INLAND ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHER THAN INTERMITTENTLY LINGERING FEW/SCT MID
CLOUDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE RETURN
OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING WHICH FEATURE WILL PREVAIL...THUS HAVE KEPT A MIXTURE IN
GOING FORECAST ATTM. ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED 10-15 MILES EAST OF TOPSAIL ISLAND AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS BUT SHOULD
END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A BELT OF STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS BUILT SEA HEIGHTS AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY TO 5 FEET...WITH BUOYS CLOSE TO THE COAST
STILL REPORTING 3-4 FEET. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

USING RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED JUST EAST OF CAPE FEAR AT 7 PM. OF ALL THE MODELS
AVAILABLE TO US THE TWO THAT SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE ARE THE 12Z WRF-NMM
AND 12Z WRF-ARW. THESE MODELS ARE THE BASIS FOR THIS EVENING
UPDATE. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WE`VE GOT A FEW MORE
HOURS OF INTERESTING WEATHER AS SWIRLING WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. SEAS HAVE
BUILT TO A SOLID 4 FEET NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND THERE
SHOULD BE SOME 5-FOOTERS DEVELOPING SHORTLY ACCORDING TO OUR LOCAL
WAVE MODEL USING UPDATED WIND FORECASTS. AN EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE HAS BEEN HOISTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. AFTER MIDNIGHT SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE REGION TO 2-3 FEET.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS TO
10 KT OR LESS. SW TO S WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE BOTH
DAYS SHOULD BECOME MORE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING
DUE TO A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2
FT...BUT UP TO 3 FT TUE. A WEAK 8 TO 10 SECOND SE SWELL WILL
PERSIST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT JUST 10 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. IT MAY STRUGGLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY TO FIND AN ESTABLISHED DIRECTION HOWEVER THOUGH NORTH AND
EAST COMPONENTS WILL TEND TO BE FAVORED. THIS WILL BE FORTIFIED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONGER HIGH GETS ESTABLISHED
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN U.S. BETWEEN THE LENGTHENING SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL FETCH ON SATURDAY THE WAVE FORECAST MAY RISE FROM 2 TO 2-3
FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SRP




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