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000
FXUS62 KILM 310233
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1033 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY IMPLY THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS INCREASING 20-40 MILES OFF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS AREA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD MISS THE POINT OF CAPE FEAR BY A COMFORTABLE MARGIN. HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE 06-12Z TIMEFRAME MAY
STILL SPREAD SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND ALONG THE COAST. BESIDES
ADJUSTING FORECAST TEMP/WIND/SKY GRIDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT IS STALLING ABOUT 200 MILES OFF THE COAST.
THE FLOW ALOFT STILL HAS A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONIC CURVATURE...AND A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE ANALYZED UPSTREAM OF THE CAROLINAS. ONE
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER COASTAL GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT...INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
BETWEEN THE 295K-300K SURFACES... ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4000-8000 FT
AGL...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN PROBABLY DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. I HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES TO 20-30 PERCENT
ACROSS COASTAL SE NORTH CAROLINA BUT MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
ELSEWHERE AS IT APPEARS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE WEAKER AND
SHOULD INVOLVE MAINLY DRY/UNSATURATED PARCEL MOTION.

WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST I HAVE NUDGED
FORECAST LOWS UP BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY NEAR
WILMINGTON...WITH SMALLER OR NO CHANGES MADE ELSEWHERE. LOWS SHOULD
REACH THE MID 40S INLAND ALONG I-95...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL MAINLY
BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AHEAD OF THE THE POWERFUL COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BEGIN TO PUNCH IN TO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALOFT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY AS A VIGOROUS AND DEEP UPPER LOW DIGS IN AND DIVES SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE...FRIDAY WILL SEE THE REMNANT FRONT
SITTING JUST OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG IT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY
BRUSHING THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS BRUSHING AREAS NEAR
SOUTHPORT AND ALONG BRUNSWICK/NEW HANOVER COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER
60S IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT...THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
APPROACHING THE AREA AND EVEN MOVING THROUGH FAR INLAND AREAS LATE.
POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DEEP
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASES.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND ESPECIALLY THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE MORE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND AT TIMES
BLUSTERY WEEKEND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALOFT...A POWERFUL AND DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AND THE STRONG UPPER FORCING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE OUTER BANKS. THE FIRST FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES
AROUND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LAYER FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA INCLUDING
STRONG PVA...UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...EVEN A SLOT OF LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS LATER ON SATURDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE ARRIVAL OF THE
IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL ALOFT...500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26C...WILL HELP
STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH THE DAY AS A RESULT.
ONE THING TO WATCH FOR IS THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
FALLING FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS GRAUPEL AT TIMES ESPECIALLY LATER ON SATURDAY. THE TOP OF
THE MOIST LAYER WILL DEFINITELY REACH INTO THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE...THEN UNDERGO AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING AS IT FALLS
THROUGH THE ABOVE FREEZING NEAR SURFACE LAYER. GRAUPEL WILL
CERTAINLY NOT BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE WEATHER
GRIDS ONLY MENTION LIQUID RAIN...BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
NONETHELESS. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE FORCING BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUE IS THE ARRIVAL OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB
TEMPS ARE VERY COLD...RUNNING ABOUT 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...AND THE LINGERING GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST CONCERNS. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE
QUITE COOL WITH MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...AND WILL THREATEN RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT THE CLIMATE SITES. SUCH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LINGERING
SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. ON FRIDAY...VFR WILL CONTINUE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT
TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR WITH SHOWERS AND INCREASED
WINDS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONT. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

A COLD FRONT IS STALLING OUT BEYOND THE GULF STREAM ABOUT 200 MILES
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH A BACKING TREND IN WIND DIRECTIONS AND INCREASING
TREND IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. CURRENTLY WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM ONLY
5-10 KNOTS ON THE BEACHES TO 15-20 KNOTS OUT AT 20 MILES DISTANCE
FROM SHORE...WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER
WESTWARD WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW...AND I HAVE THEREFORE ADDED SHOWER CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
CAPE FEAR WATERS DUE TO THEIR MORE EASTWARD LOCATION.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BULK OF THE
SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR STARTING EARLY SATURDAY AS
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS. UP UNTIL
THAT POINT...NORTH WINDS MAY SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
UP TO 4-5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM AT TIMES.

BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS QUITE COLD AND WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOW 70S...IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD ADVECTION REACHES IT
PEAK. THE DEEPENING MIXING OVER THE WATERS WILL BE HAPPENING
COINCIDENT WITH A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST OFF THE OUTER BANKS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 1000 MB
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS INCREASING TO 70 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTED MIXING
THIS WILL EASILY SUPPORT GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS.
IN FACT...GIVEN THE MOST RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS WITH THE
INITIAL PUNCH OF WIND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 00-03Z SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD. AS SUCH...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED STARTING AT 13Z
SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND 17Z FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA WATERS. GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO JUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG
SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
A MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW
THERE MAY BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE
DAY SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND
GROW LIGHTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MUCH
QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT      FOR AMZ254-256.

     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...99/CHS
LONG TERM...99/CHS
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 302339
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
739 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT IS STALLING ABOUT
200 MILES OFF THE COAST. THE FLOW ALOFT STILL HAS A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONIC CURVATURE...AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE ANALYZED
UPSTREAM OF THE CAROLINAS. ONE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT...INDUCING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN THE 295K-300K SURFACES...
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4000-8000 FT AGL...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN PROBABLY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. I HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL
CHANCES TO 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS COASTAL SE NORTH CAROLINA BUT
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE AS IT APPEARS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE WEAKER AND SHOULD INVOLVE MAINLY DRY/UNSATURATED PARCEL
MOTION.

WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST I HAVE NUDGED
FORECAST LOWS UP BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY NEAR
WILMINGTON...WITH SMALLER OR NO CHANGES MADE ELSEWHERE. LOWS SHOULD
REACH THE MID 40S INLAND ALONG I-95...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL MAINLY
BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AHEAD OF THE THE POWERFUL COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BEGIN TO PUNCH IN TO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALOFT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY AS A VIGOROUS AND DEEP UPPER LOW DIGS IN AND DIVES SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE...FRIDAY WILL SEE THE REMNANT FRONT
SITTING JUST OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG IT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY
BRUSHING THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS BRUSHING AREAS NEAR
SOUTHPORT AND ALONG BRUNSWICK/NEW HANOVER COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER
60S IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT...THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
APPROACHING THE AREA AND EVEN MOVING THROUGH FAR INLAND AREAS LATE.
POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DEEP
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASES.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND ESPECIALLY THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE MORE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND AT TIMES
BLUSTERY WEEKEND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALOFT...A POWERFUL AND DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AND THE STRONG UPPER FORCING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE OUTER BANKS. THE FIRST FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES
AROUND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LAYER FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA INCLUDING
STRONG PVA...UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...EVEN A SLOT OF LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS LATER ON SATURDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE ARRIVAL OF THE
IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL ALOFT...500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26C...WILL HELP
STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH THE DAY AS A RESULT.
ONE THING TO WATCH FOR IS THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
FALLING FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS GRAUPEL AT TIMES ESPECIALLY LATER ON SATURDAY. THE TOP OF
THE MOIST LAYER WILL DEFINITELY REACH INTO THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE...THEN UNDERGO AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING AS IT FALLS
THROUGH THE ABOVE FREEZING NEAR SURFACE LAYER. GRAUPEL WILL
CERTAINLY NOT BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE WEATHER
GRIDS ONLY MENTION LIQUID RAIN...BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
NONETHELESS. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE FORCING BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUE IS THE ARRIVAL OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB
TEMPS ARE VERY COLD...RUNNING ABOUT 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...AND THE LINGERING GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST CONCERNS. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE
QUITE COOL WITH MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...AND WILL THREATEN RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT THE CLIMATE SITES. SUCH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LINGERING
SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. ON FRIDAY...VFR WILL CONTINUE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT
TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR WITH SHOWERS AND INCREASED
WINDS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONT. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS STALLING OUT BEYOND THE GULF
STREAM ABOUT 200 MILES OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH A BACKING TREND IN WIND DIRECTIONS
AND INCREASING TREND IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. CURRENTLY WIND SPEEDS
RANGE FROM ONLY 5-10 KNOTS ON THE BEACHES TO 15-20 KNOTS OUT AT 20
MILES DISTANCE FROM SHORE...WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
A BIT FARTHER WESTWARD WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...AND I HAVE THEREFORE ADDED SHOWER CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN
THE CAPE FEAR WATERS DUE TO THEIR MORE EASTWARD LOCATION.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BULK OF THE
SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR STARTING EARLY SATURDAY AS
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS. UP UNTIL
THAT POINT...NORTH WINDS MAY SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
UP TO 4-5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM AT TIMES.

BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS QUITE COLD AND WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOW 70S...IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD ADVECTION REACHES IT
PEAK. THE DEEPENING MIXING OVER THE WATERS WILL BE HAPPENING
COINCIDENT WITH A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST OFF THE OUTER BANKS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 1000 MB
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS INCREASING TO 70 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTED MIXING
THIS WILL EASILY SUPPORT GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS.
IN FACT...GIVEN THE MOST RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS WITH THE
INITIAL PUNCH OF WIND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 00-03Z SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD. AS SUCH...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED STARTING AT 13Z
SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND 17Z FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA WATERS. GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO JUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG
SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
A MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW
THERE MAY BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE
DAY SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND
GROW LIGHTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MUCH
QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT      FOR AMZ254-256.

     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...99/CHS
LONG TERM...99/CHS
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 302003
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REST OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE. A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...LOW STRATUS REMAINS ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN
SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT POSITIONED WELL
OFFSHORE. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO LEAVE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AS MODELS PICK UP ON
MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LVLS DURING THE APPROACH OF A MID LVL TROUGH
AXIS FROM OUR NORTHWEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
LATE...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS UP 1-2 DEGREES. TEMPS ARE NOW
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW/MID 50S ALONG COASTAL
AREAS. SHOULD SHOWERS DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SFC LOW ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER COASTAL
WATERS SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY
AHEAD OF THE THE POWERFUL COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO PUNCH IN TO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS A VIGOROUS AND DEEP
UPPER LOW DIGS IN AND DIVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE POSITIONED ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AT THE
SURFACE...FRIDAY WILL SEE THE REMNANT FRONT SITTING JUST OFFSHORE
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG IT.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY BRUSHING THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PERHAPS BRUSHING AREAS NEAR SOUTHPORT AND ALONG
BRUNSWICK/NEW HANOVER COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS.
OVERNIGHT...THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE
AREA AND EVEN MOVING THROUGH FAR INLAND AREAS LATE. POPS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND ESPECIALLY THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR WILL
BE MORE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND AT TIMES
BLUSTERY WEEKEND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALOFT...A POWERFUL AND DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AND THE STRONG UPPER FORCING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE OUTER BANKS. THE FIRST FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES
AROUND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LAYER FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA INCLUDING
STRONG PVA...UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...EVEN A SLOT OF LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS LATER ON SATURDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE ARRIVAL OF THE
IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL ALOFT...500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26C...WILL HELP
STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH THE DAY AS A RESULT.
ONE THING TO WATCH FOR IS THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
FALLING FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS GRAUPEL AT TIMES ESPECIALLY LATER ON SATURDAY. THE TOP OF
THE MOIST LAYER WILL DEFINITELY REACH INTO THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE...THEN UNDERGO AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING AS IT FALLS
THROUGH THE ABOVE FREEZING NEAR SURFACE LAYER. GRAUPEL WILL CERTAINLY
NOT BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE WEATHER GRIDS ONLY
MENTION LIQUID RAIN...BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END STARTING SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
FORCING BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUE IS THE
ARRIVAL OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ARE VERY
COLD...RUNNING ABOUT 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...AND THE
LINGERING GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FROST CONCERNS. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MID
50S IN MOST AREAS...AND WILL THREATEN RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT THE CLIMATE SITES. SUCH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 20
DEGREES BELOW FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT
MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE
SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO
GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW
AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS BULLETINS SEEM TOO
OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW DEGREES. THE
ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST OF THE MOISTENING
MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE COLD AIRMASS AS
OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MAINLY AT
MYR AND CRE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRI. WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TERMINAL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BECOME PREVAILING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY
STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
BEHIND A STALLING COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE AND
RESULTS IN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS LATE. IN
GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS...WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW 25 KT GUSTS LATE BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT INITIALLY...BEFORE BUILDING UP
TO 3-4 FT LATE...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR STARTING EARLY SATURDAY AS A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS. UP UNTIL THAT POINT...NORTH
WINDS MAY SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS UP TO 4-5 FT OUT
NEAR 20 NM AT TIMES.

BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS QUITE COLD AND WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOW 70S...IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD ADVECTION REACHES IT
PEAK. THE DEEPENING MIXING OVER THE WATERS WILL BE HAPPENING
COINCIDENT WITH A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST OFF THE OUTER BANKS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 1000 MB
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS INCREASING TO 70 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTED MIXING
THIS WILL EASILY SUPPORT GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS.
IN FACT...GIVEN THE MOST RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS WITH THE
INITIAL PUNCH OF WIND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 00-03Z SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD. AS SUCH...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED STARTING AT 13Z
SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND 17Z FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA WATERS. GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO JUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A MARKED ABATING TREND AS
THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE
STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US DIRECTLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY
MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND
DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW LIGHTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ254-256.

     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
MARINE...99








000
FXUS62 KILM 302003
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REST OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE. A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...LOW STRATUS REMAINS ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN
SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT POSITIONED WELL
OFFSHORE. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO LEAVE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AS MODELS PICK UP ON
MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LVLS DURING THE APPROACH OF A MID LVL TROUGH
AXIS FROM OUR NORTHWEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
LATE...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS UP 1-2 DEGREES. TEMPS ARE NOW
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW/MID 50S ALONG COASTAL
AREAS. SHOULD SHOWERS DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SFC LOW ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER COASTAL
WATERS SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY
AHEAD OF THE THE POWERFUL COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO PUNCH IN TO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS A VIGOROUS AND DEEP
UPPER LOW DIGS IN AND DIVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE POSITIONED ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AT THE
SURFACE...FRIDAY WILL SEE THE REMNANT FRONT SITTING JUST OFFSHORE
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG IT.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY BRUSHING THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PERHAPS BRUSHING AREAS NEAR SOUTHPORT AND ALONG
BRUNSWICK/NEW HANOVER COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS.
OVERNIGHT...THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE
AREA AND EVEN MOVING THROUGH FAR INLAND AREAS LATE. POPS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND ESPECIALLY THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR WILL
BE MORE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND AT TIMES
BLUSTERY WEEKEND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALOFT...A POWERFUL AND DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AND THE STRONG UPPER FORCING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE OUTER BANKS. THE FIRST FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES
AROUND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LAYER FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA INCLUDING
STRONG PVA...UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...EVEN A SLOT OF LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS LATER ON SATURDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE ARRIVAL OF THE
IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL ALOFT...500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26C...WILL HELP
STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH THE DAY AS A RESULT.
ONE THING TO WATCH FOR IS THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
FALLING FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS GRAUPEL AT TIMES ESPECIALLY LATER ON SATURDAY. THE TOP OF
THE MOIST LAYER WILL DEFINITELY REACH INTO THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE...THEN UNDERGO AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING AS IT FALLS
THROUGH THE ABOVE FREEZING NEAR SURFACE LAYER. GRAUPEL WILL CERTAINLY
NOT BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE WEATHER GRIDS ONLY
MENTION LIQUID RAIN...BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END STARTING SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
FORCING BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUE IS THE
ARRIVAL OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ARE VERY
COLD...RUNNING ABOUT 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...AND THE
LINGERING GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FROST CONCERNS. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MID
50S IN MOST AREAS...AND WILL THREATEN RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT THE CLIMATE SITES. SUCH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 20
DEGREES BELOW FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT
MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE
SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO
GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW
AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS BULLETINS SEEM TOO
OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW DEGREES. THE
ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST OF THE MOISTENING
MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE COLD AIRMASS AS
OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MAINLY AT
MYR AND CRE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRI. WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TERMINAL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BECOME PREVAILING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY
STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
BEHIND A STALLING COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE AND
RESULTS IN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS LATE. IN
GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS...WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW 25 KT GUSTS LATE BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT INITIALLY...BEFORE BUILDING UP
TO 3-4 FT LATE...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR STARTING EARLY SATURDAY AS A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS. UP UNTIL THAT POINT...NORTH
WINDS MAY SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS UP TO 4-5 FT OUT
NEAR 20 NM AT TIMES.

BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS QUITE COLD AND WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOW 70S...IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD ADVECTION REACHES IT
PEAK. THE DEEPENING MIXING OVER THE WATERS WILL BE HAPPENING
COINCIDENT WITH A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST OFF THE OUTER BANKS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 1000 MB
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS INCREASING TO 70 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTED MIXING
THIS WILL EASILY SUPPORT GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS.
IN FACT...GIVEN THE MOST RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS WITH THE
INITIAL PUNCH OF WIND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 00-03Z SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD. AS SUCH...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED STARTING AT 13Z
SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND 17Z FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA WATERS. GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO JUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A MARKED ABATING TREND AS
THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE
STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US DIRECTLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY
MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND
DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW LIGHTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ254-256.

     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
MARINE...99








000
FXUS62 KILM 301803
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
203 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WHILE FRIDAY TURNS
A BIT COOLER. SATURDAY WILL TURN ABRUPTLY COLDER WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND A WINTER-LIKE CHILL IN THE AFTERNOON BREEZE. SUNDAY WILL
BE ALMOST AS COLD BUT NOT AS WINDY AND BOTH NIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BRING LOWS IN THE 30S, SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLDER OF THE TWO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTH
CAROLINA BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE SLOWLY
ERODING DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES...WHICH NOW PUTS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 60S FOR THIS PARTICULAR AREA. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN SUN
OVER MOST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA NOTED ABOVE...COOLER
AND DRYER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE.
A RAIN-FREE FORECAST IS THEREFORE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPS SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WARMEST INLAND.

TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS PICK UP ON SOME MOISTURE IN THE
LOW-LVLS DURING THE APPROACH OF A MID LVL TROUGH AXIS FROM OUR
NORTHWEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY A ROLE IN HOW COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS REACH...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENT FORECAST
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER NONDESCRIPT ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE PERIOD SOON THEREAFTER. DEEP EASTERN U.S.
TROUGHINESS AND A COLD FRONT AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WHILE THE
AFTERNOON REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE A VERY
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO
THE TUNE OF A 36S-1 VORT MAX JUST EAST OF A NORTHERN JET OF 80KT AT
500MB AND 120KT AT 250MB. WITH SUCH ENERGY ALOFT IT FOLLOWS THAT
SOME DOWNRIGHT COLD AIR WILL BE BEING DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE
COLD BLAST IS SLATED FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL. THIS MEGA-VORT IS NOT
YET BEING SAMPLED BY THE DENSE UPPER AIR OF THE U.S. SO THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WHAT SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL RESULT. THIS MAINLY BEING RELEVANT SINCE THE
CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED WRF BRINGS IN A PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE CAPE FEAR COAST. BARRING THAT THE FORECAST IS MORE
SLANTED TOWARDS GFS/EC/PREV FCST. SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN
APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536
DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBING
AS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
WITH SOUTHERN ZONES OPERATING OFF OF PURE DYNAMICS WHILE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL BENEFIT FROM FURTHER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHEAST! THIS SYSTEM IS SO STRONG AND COLD
ALOFT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL WAS DISCUSSED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO. ITS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THOUGH SO THE CHILLY AND RAW AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A STRONG GRADIENT OF
WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REALLY GET THE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY. THE COLD ADVECTION EASES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
WIND STAYS UP WITH THE GRADIENT PRECLUDING RAD COOLING BUT FOR THE
SAME REASON SUCH CHILL SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY IS THE POST COLD ADVECTION DAY WHEREIN
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS
ALREADY TYPICALLY REVERSED BY THIS TIME THE MIXING IS SHALLOWER AND
TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ARE ALMOST AS LARGE AS THE PRIOR
DAY BUT NOT QUITE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD APPLY ON SUNDAY. SIMILARLY THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RAD COOLING...AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF AN
OUTBREAK IS USUALLY THE SECOND NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MAINLY AT
MYR AND CRE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRI. WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TERMINAL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT BEHIND A STALLING COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
AND MAINTAINS A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PEAK
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2-4 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED FAIRLY FAR OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A FLAT/ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING MUCH OF
ITS LENGTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO BOOST THE
GRADIENT AND THE RESULTING NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RUN CLOSE TO
CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS. AS THIS LOW CONGEALS INTO A MORE CIRCULAR
SYSTEM AND PULLS AWAY TO THE NE LOCAL FLOW WILL BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF LULL AS THE NEXT LOW AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINE THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL AND A
BLAST OF COLD AIR AND SURGE IN GRADIENT WILL GET UNDERWAY
IMMEDIATELY ON SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES YET AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
NOT BEING SAMPLED BY THE CONUS UPPER AIR BALLOONS. THIS WILL CHANGE
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IT WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG MIXING
OF THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER SSTS. STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD BE A BIT LONGER FUSED THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG EARLY
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY DURING THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY
BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY
SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW
LIGHTER.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
MARINE...99
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KILM 301717
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WHILE FRIDAY TURNS
A BIT COOLER. SATURDAY WILL TURN ABRUPTLY COLDER WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND A WINTER-LIKE CHILL IN THE AFTERNOON BREEZE. SUNDAY WILL
BE ALMOST AS COLD BUT NOT AS WINDY AND BOTH NIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BRING LOWS IN THE 30S, SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLDER OF THE TWO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTH
CAROLINA BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE SLOWLY
ERODING DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES...WHICH NOW PUTS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 60S FOR THIS PARTICULAR AREA. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN SUN
OVER MOST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA NOTED ABOVE...COOLER
AND DRYER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE.
A RAIN-FREE FORECAST IS THEREFORE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPS SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WARMEST INLAND.

TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS PICK UP ON SOME MOISTURE IN THE
LOW-LVLS DURING THE APPROACH OF A MID LVL TROUGH AXIS FROM OUR
NORTHWEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY A ROLE IN HOW COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS REACH...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENT FORECAST
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER NONDESCRIPT ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE PERIOD SOON THEREAFTER. DEEP EASTERN U.S.
TROUGHINESS AND A COLD FRONT AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WHILE THE
AFTERNOON REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE A VERY
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO
THE TUNE OF A 36S-1 VORT MAX JUST EAST OF A NORTHERN JET OF 80KT AT
500MB AND 120KT AT 250MB. WITH SUCH ENERGY ALOFT IT FOLLOWS THAT
SOME DOWNRIGHT COLD AIR WILL BE BEING DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE
COLD BLAST IS SLATED FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL. THIS MEGA-VORT IS NOT
YET BEING SAMPLED BY THE DENSE UPPER AIR OF THE U.S. SO THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WHAT SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL RESULT. THIS MAINLY BEING RELEVANT SINCE THE
CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED WRF BRINGS IN A PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE CAPE FEAR COAST. BARRING THAT THE FORECAST IS MORE
SLANTED TOWARDS GFS/EC/PREV FCST. SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN
APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536
DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBING
AS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
WITH SOUTHERN ZONES OPERATING OFF OF PURE DYNAMICS WHILE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL BENEFIT FROM FURTHER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHEAST! THIS SYSTEM IS SO STRONG AND COLD
ALOFT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL WAS DISCUSSED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO. ITS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THOUGH SO THE CHILLY AND RAW AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A STRONG GRADIENT OF
WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REALLY GET THE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY. THE COLD ADVECTION EASES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
WIND STAYS UP WITH THE GRADIENT PRECLUDING RAD COOLING BUT FOR THE
SAME REASON SUCH CHILL SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY IS THE POST COLD ADVECTION DAY WHEREIN
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS
ALREADY TYPICALLY REVERSED BY THIS TIME THE MIXING IS SHALLOWER AND
TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ARE ALMOST AS LARGE AS THE PRIOR
DAY BUT NOT QUITE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD APPLY ON SUNDAY. SIMILARLY THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RAD COOLING...AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF AN
OUTBREAK IS USUALLY THE SECOND NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
SOME LINGERING IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY. SKIES WILL SCATTER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT BEHIND A STALLING COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
AND MAINTAINS A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PEAK
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2-4 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED FAIRLY FAR OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A FLAT/ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING MUCH OF
ITS LENGTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO BOOST THE
GRADIENT AND THE RESULTING NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RUN CLOSE TO
CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS. AS THIS LOW CONGEALS INTO A MORE CIRCULAR
SYSTEM AND PULLS AWAY TO THE NE LOCAL FLOW WILL BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF LULL AS THE NEXT LOW AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINE THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL AND A
BLAST OF COLD AIR AND SURGE IN GRADIENT WILL GET UNDERWAY
IMMEDIATELY ON SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES YET AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
NOT BEING SAMPLED BY THE CONUS UPPER AIR BALLOONS. THIS WILL CHANGE
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IT WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG MIXING
OF THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER SSTS. STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD BE A BIT LONGER FUSED THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG EARLY
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY DURING THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY
BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY
SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW
LIGHTER.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
MARINE...99








000
FXUS62 KILM 301506
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1106 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY WHILE FRIDAY TURNS A BIT
COOLER. SATURDAY WILL TURN ABRUPTLY COLDER WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND A WINTER-LIKE CHILL IN THE AFTERNOON BREEZE. SUNDAY WILL BE
ALMOST AS COLD BUT NOT AS WINDY AND BOTH NIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING LOWS IN THE 30S, SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLDER OF THE TWO. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG
COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFFSHORE. THESE CLOUDS COULD LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE OR
ERODE AS DAYTIME HEATING PEAKS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN SUN TODAY...COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE. A RAIN-FREE FORECAST IS
THEREFORE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS SOME 10-12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LVLS
DURING THE APPROACH OF A MID LVL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST STATES. CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE OVERALL
TREND OF LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER NONDESCRIPT ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE PERIOD SOON THEREAFTER. DEEP EASTERN U.S.
TROUGHINESS AND A COLD FRONT AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WHILE THE
AFTERNOON REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE A VERY
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO
THE TUNE OF A 36S-1 VORT MAX JUST EAST OF A NORTHERN JET OF 80KT AT
500MB AND 120KT AT 250MB. WITH SUCH ENERGY ALOFT IT FOLLOWS THAT
SOME DOWNRIGHT COLD AIR WILL BE BEING DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE
COLD BLAST IS SLATED FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL. THIS MEGA-VORT IS NOT
YET BEING SAMPLED BY THE DENSE UPPER AIR OF THE U.S. SO THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WHAT SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL RESULT. THIS MAINLY BEING RELEVANT SINCE THE
CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED WRF BRINGS IN A PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE CAPE FEAR COAST. BARRING THAT THE FORECAST IS MORE
SLANTED TOWARDS GFS/EC/PREV FCST. SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN
APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536
DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBING
AS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
WITH SOUTHERN ZONES OPERATING OFF OF PURE DYNAMICS WHILE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL BENEFIT FROM FURTHER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHEAST! THIS SYSTEM IS SO STRONG AND COLD
ALOFT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL WAS DISCUSSED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO. ITS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THOUGH SO THE CHILLY AND RAW AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A STRONG GRADIENT OF
WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REALLY GET THE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY. THE COLD ADVECTION EASES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
WIND STAYS UP WITH THE GRADIENT PRECLUDING RAD COOLING BUT FOR THE
SAME REASON SUCH CHILL SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY IS THE POST COLD ADVECTION DAY WHEREIN
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS
ALREADY TYPICALLY REVERSED BY THIS TIME THE MIXING IS SHALLOWER AND
TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ARE ALMOST AS LARGE AS THE PRIOR
DAY BUT NOT QUITE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD APPLY ON SUNDAY. SIMILARLY THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RAD COOLING...AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF AN
OUTBREAK IS USUALLY THE SECOND NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
SOME LINGERING IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
AROUND MID MORNING. SKIES WILL SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT BEHIND A STALLING COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT OFFSHORE AND MAINTAINS A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2-4 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED FAIRLY FAR OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A FLAT/ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING MUCH OF
ITS LENGTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO BOOST THE
GRADIENT AND THE RESULTING NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RUN CLOSE TO
CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS. AS THIS LOW CONGEALS INTO A MORE CIRCULAR
SYSTEM AND PULLS AWAY TO THE NE LOCAL FLOW WILL BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF LULL AS THE NEXT LOW AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINE THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL AND A
BLAST OF COLD AIR AND SURGE IN GRADIENT WILL GET UNDERWAY
IMMEDIATELY ON SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES YET AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
NOT BEING SAMPLED BY THE CONUS UPPER AIR BALLOONS. THIS WILL CHANGE
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IT WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG MIXING
OF THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER SSTS. STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD BE A BIT LONGER FUSED THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG EARLY
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY DURING THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY
BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY
SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW
LIGHTER.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
MARINE...99








000
FXUS62 KILM 301048
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
648 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY WHILE FRIDAY TURNS A BIT
COOLER. SATURDAY WILL TURN ABRUPTLY COLDER WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND A WINTER-LIKE CHILL IN THE AFTERNOON BREEZE. SUNDAY WILL BE
ALMOST AS COLD BUT NOT AS WINDY AND BOTH NIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING LOWS IN THE 30S, SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLDER OF THE TWO. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST
AND IS NEARLY OFFSHORE VIA LATEST BUOY AND COASTAL OBS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE ITS SSE PROGRESSION AND WILL REACH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY DAYBREAK THU. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...FROM SW TO NE...TO A POSITION NOT TOO FAR
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS BEFORE STALLING LATER TODAY.
MORE PCPN THEN EXPECTED CONTINUES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE CELLS EXHIBITING LIGHTNING. POPS WILL
BE ADJUSTED WITH THE LAST OF THE PCPN OFF THE COAST BY MID-MORNING
AND OFFSHORE BY NOON TODAY. THE NEXT PROBLEM DEALS WITH THE
EXTENT OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA REMAIN QUITE DIFFERENT.
THE NAM LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE FOR BOTH CLOUDS AND PCPN
CHANCES AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS. DID KEEP CLOUDY
SKIES WELL INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT CONTINUED
THE PARTIAL CLEARING TREND INLAND. FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
WITH POPS REMAINING OFF THE COAST AS MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SFC
LOW MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...BASICALLY
DID A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE THINKING IS
THE NAM BEING TOO LOW AND THE GFS RUNNING A BIT HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER NONDESCRIPT ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE PERIOD SOON THEREAFTER. DEEP EASTERN U.S.
TROUGHINESS AND A COLD FRONT AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WHILE THE
AFTERNOON REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE A VERY
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO
THE TUNE OF A 36S-1 VORT MAX JUST EAST OF A NORTHERN JET OF 80KT AT
500MB AND 120KT AT 250MB. WITH SUCH ENERGY ALOFT IT FOLLOWS THAT
SOME DOWNRIGHT COLD AIR WILL BE BEING DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE
COLD BLAST IS SLATED FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL. THIS MEGA-VORT IS NOT
YET BEING SAMPLED BY THE DENSE UPPER AIR OF THE U.S. SO THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WHAT SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL RESULT. THIS MAINLY BEING RELEVANT SINCE THE
CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED WRF BRINGS IN A PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE CAPE FEAR COAST. BARRING THAT THE FORECAST IS MORE
SLANTED TOWARDS GFS/EC/PREV FCST. SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN
APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536
DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBING
AS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
WITH SOUTHERN ZONES OPERATING OFF OF PURE DYNAMICS WHILE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL BENEFIT FROM FURTHER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHEAST! THIS SYSTEM IS SO STRONG AND COLD
ALOFT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL WAS DISCUSSED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO. ITS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THOUGH SO THE CHILLY AND RAW AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A STRONG GRADIENT OF
WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REALLY GET THE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY. THE COLD ADVECTION EASES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
WIND STAYS UP WITH THE GRADIENT PRECLUDING RAD COOLING BUT FOR THE
SAME REASON SUCH CHILL SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY IS THE POST COLD ADVECTION DAY WHEREIN
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS
ALREADY TYPICALLY REVERSED BY THIS TIME THE MIXING IS SHALLOWER AND
TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ARE ALMOST AS LARGE AS THE PRIOR
DAY BUT NOT QUITE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD APPLY ON SUNDAY. SIMILARLY THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RAD COOLING...AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF AN
OUTBREAK IS USUALLY THE SECOND NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
SOME LINGERING IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...BUT ONLY
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
AROUND MID MORNING. SKIES WILL SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO PUSH SSE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND OFFSHORE AROUND DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND NE AFTER THE CFP AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STALL OFFSHORE...BECOMING ORIENTED NE-SW. WEAK SFC LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL THUS KEEP A SEMI-
TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THUS...WILL KEEP NNE TO NE
WINDS AT 10 TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
FOR THE ILM NC WATERS WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THIS WEAK SFC LOW.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT AND BE COMPRISED INITIALLY OF
SW-W WIND DRIVEN WAVES BECOMING N-NE WIND DRIVEN. A MORE SOLID 3 TO
4 FT WILL EXIST OVER THE ILM NC WATERS...MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 3 TO 6 SECONDS. POST FRONTAL
PCPN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY NOON. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW
LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD ALSO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED FAIRLY FAR OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A FLAT/ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING MUCH OF
ITS LENGTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO BOOST THE
GRADIENT AND THE RESULTING NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RUN CLOSE TO
CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS. AS THIS LOW CONGEALS INTO A MORE CIRCULAR
SYSTEM AND PULLS AWAY TO THE NE LOCAL FLOW WILL BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF LULL AS THE NEXT LOW AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINE THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL AND A
BLAST OF COLD AIR AND SURGE IN GRADIENT WILL GET UNDERWAY
IMMEDIATELY ON SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES YET AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
NOT BEING SAMPLED BY THE CONUS UPPER AIR BALLOONS. THIS WILL CHANGE
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IT WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG MIXING
OF THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER SSTS. STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD BE A BIT LONGER FUSED THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG EARLY
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY DURING THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY
BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY
SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW
LIGHTER.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL






000
FXUS62 KILM 301048
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
648 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY WHILE FRIDAY TURNS A BIT
COOLER. SATURDAY WILL TURN ABRUPTLY COLDER WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND A WINTER-LIKE CHILL IN THE AFTERNOON BREEZE. SUNDAY WILL BE
ALMOST AS COLD BUT NOT AS WINDY AND BOTH NIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING LOWS IN THE 30S, SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLDER OF THE TWO. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST
AND IS NEARLY OFFSHORE VIA LATEST BUOY AND COASTAL OBS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE ITS SSE PROGRESSION AND WILL REACH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY DAYBREAK THU. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...FROM SW TO NE...TO A POSITION NOT TOO FAR
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS BEFORE STALLING LATER TODAY.
MORE PCPN THEN EXPECTED CONTINUES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE CELLS EXHIBITING LIGHTNING. POPS WILL
BE ADJUSTED WITH THE LAST OF THE PCPN OFF THE COAST BY MID-MORNING
AND OFFSHORE BY NOON TODAY. THE NEXT PROBLEM DEALS WITH THE
EXTENT OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA REMAIN QUITE DIFFERENT.
THE NAM LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE FOR BOTH CLOUDS AND PCPN
CHANCES AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS. DID KEEP CLOUDY
SKIES WELL INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT CONTINUED
THE PARTIAL CLEARING TREND INLAND. FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
WITH POPS REMAINING OFF THE COAST AS MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SFC
LOW MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...BASICALLY
DID A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE THINKING IS
THE NAM BEING TOO LOW AND THE GFS RUNNING A BIT HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER NONDESCRIPT ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE PERIOD SOON THEREAFTER. DEEP EASTERN U.S.
TROUGHINESS AND A COLD FRONT AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WHILE THE
AFTERNOON REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE A VERY
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO
THE TUNE OF A 36S-1 VORT MAX JUST EAST OF A NORTHERN JET OF 80KT AT
500MB AND 120KT AT 250MB. WITH SUCH ENERGY ALOFT IT FOLLOWS THAT
SOME DOWNRIGHT COLD AIR WILL BE BEING DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE
COLD BLAST IS SLATED FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL. THIS MEGA-VORT IS NOT
YET BEING SAMPLED BY THE DENSE UPPER AIR OF THE U.S. SO THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WHAT SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL RESULT. THIS MAINLY BEING RELEVANT SINCE THE
CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED WRF BRINGS IN A PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE CAPE FEAR COAST. BARRING THAT THE FORECAST IS MORE
SLANTED TOWARDS GFS/EC/PREV FCST. SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN
APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536
DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBING
AS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
WITH SOUTHERN ZONES OPERATING OFF OF PURE DYNAMICS WHILE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL BENEFIT FROM FURTHER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHEAST! THIS SYSTEM IS SO STRONG AND COLD
ALOFT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL WAS DISCUSSED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO. ITS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THOUGH SO THE CHILLY AND RAW AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A STRONG GRADIENT OF
WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REALLY GET THE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY. THE COLD ADVECTION EASES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
WIND STAYS UP WITH THE GRADIENT PRECLUDING RAD COOLING BUT FOR THE
SAME REASON SUCH CHILL SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY IS THE POST COLD ADVECTION DAY WHEREIN
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS
ALREADY TYPICALLY REVERSED BY THIS TIME THE MIXING IS SHALLOWER AND
TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ARE ALMOST AS LARGE AS THE PRIOR
DAY BUT NOT QUITE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD APPLY ON SUNDAY. SIMILARLY THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RAD COOLING...AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF AN
OUTBREAK IS USUALLY THE SECOND NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
SOME LINGERING IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...BUT ONLY
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
AROUND MID MORNING. SKIES WILL SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO PUSH SSE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND OFFSHORE AROUND DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND NE AFTER THE CFP AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STALL OFFSHORE...BECOMING ORIENTED NE-SW. WEAK SFC LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL THUS KEEP A SEMI-
TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THUS...WILL KEEP NNE TO NE
WINDS AT 10 TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
FOR THE ILM NC WATERS WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THIS WEAK SFC LOW.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT AND BE COMPRISED INITIALLY OF
SW-W WIND DRIVEN WAVES BECOMING N-NE WIND DRIVEN. A MORE SOLID 3 TO
4 FT WILL EXIST OVER THE ILM NC WATERS...MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 3 TO 6 SECONDS. POST FRONTAL
PCPN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY NOON. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW
LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD ALSO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED FAIRLY FAR OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A FLAT/ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING MUCH OF
ITS LENGTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO BOOST THE
GRADIENT AND THE RESULTING NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RUN CLOSE TO
CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS. AS THIS LOW CONGEALS INTO A MORE CIRCULAR
SYSTEM AND PULLS AWAY TO THE NE LOCAL FLOW WILL BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF LULL AS THE NEXT LOW AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINE THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL AND A
BLAST OF COLD AIR AND SURGE IN GRADIENT WILL GET UNDERWAY
IMMEDIATELY ON SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES YET AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
NOT BEING SAMPLED BY THE CONUS UPPER AIR BALLOONS. THIS WILL CHANGE
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IT WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG MIXING
OF THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER SSTS. STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD BE A BIT LONGER FUSED THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG EARLY
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY DURING THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY
BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY
SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW
LIGHTER.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL






000
FXUS62 KILM 301033
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
632 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY WHILE FRIDAY TURNS A BIT
COOLER. SATURDAY WILL TURN ABRUPTLY COLDER WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND A WINTER-LIKE CHILL IN THE AFTERNOON BREEZE. SUNDAY WILL BE
ALMOST AS COLD BUT NOT AS WINDY AND BOTH NIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING LOWS IN THE 30S, SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLDER OF THE TWO. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILM CWA USING KLTX SRM/V PRODUCTS AT THE
0.5 DEGREE SLICE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED OFF THE COAST FROM THE ILM NC COUNTIES...AND EXTENDS FROM
MYRTLE BEACH SW TO TRIO OF WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. CONTINUED SSE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT WILL TAKE IT OFF THE ILM SC COAST AND
LIKELY REACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF BOTH THE NC AND SC COASTS
BY DAYBREAK THU. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT...FROM SW TO NE...TO A POSITION JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTS BEFORE STALLING LATER TODAY. MORE PCPN THEN
EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE
CELLS EXHIBITING LIGHTNING. POPS WILL BE ADJUSTED WITH THE LAST OF
THE PCPN OFF THE COAST BEFORE NOON TODAY. THE NEXT PROBLEM DEALS
WITH THE EXTENT OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AS BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA QUITE DIFFERENT. THE
NAM LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE FOR BOTH CLOUDS AND PCPN
CHANCES AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS. DID KEEP
CLOUDY SKIES WELL INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT
CONTINUED THE PARTIAL CLEARING TREND INLAND. FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY
CLEAR WITH PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL WITH POPS REMAINING OFF THE COAST AS MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK SFC LOW MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS...BASICALLY DID A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE
WITH THE THINKING IS THE NAM BEING TOO LOW AND THE GFS RUNNING A
BIT HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER NONDESCRIPT ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE PERIOD SOON THEREAFTER. DEEP EASTERN U.S.
TROUGHINESS AND A COLD FRONT AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WHILE THE
AFTERNOON REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE A VERY
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO
THE TUNE OF A 36S-1 VORT MAX JUST EAST OF A NORTHERN JET OF 80KT AT
500MB AND 120KT AT 250MB. WITH SUCH ENERGY ALOFT IT FOLLOWS THAT
SOME DOWNRIGHT COLD AIR WILL BE BEING DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE
COLD BLAST IS SLATED FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL. THIS MEGA-VORT IS NOT
YET BEING SAMPLED BY THE DENSE UPPER AIR OF THE U.S. SO THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WHAT SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL RESULT. THIS MAINLY BEING RELEVANT SINCE THE
CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED WRF BRINGS IN A PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE CAPE FEAR COAST. BARRING THAT THE FORECAST IS MORE
SLANTED TOWARDS GFS/EC/PREV FCST. SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN
APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536
DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBING
AS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
WITH SOUTHERN ZONES OPERATING OFF OF PURE DYNAMICS WHILE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL BENEFIT FROM FURTHER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHEAST! THIS SYSTEM IS SO STRONG AND COLD
ALOFT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL WAS DISCUSSED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO. ITS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THOUGH SO THE CHILLY AND RAW AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A STRONG GRADIENT OF
WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REALLY GET THE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY. THE COLD ADVECTION EASES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
WIND STAYS UP WITH THE GRADIENT PRECLUDING RAD COOLING BUT FOR THE
SAME REASON SUCH CHILL SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY IS THE POST COLD ADVECTION DAY WHEREIN
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS
ALREADY TYPICALLY REVERSED BY THIS TIME THE MIXING IS SHALLOWER AND
TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ARE ALMOST AS LARGE AS THE PRIOR
DAY BUT NOT QUITE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD APPLY ON SUNDAY. SIMILARLY THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RAD COOLING...AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF AN
OUTBREAK IS USUALLY THE SECOND NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
SOME LINGERING IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...BUT ONLY
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
AROUND MID MORNING. SKIES WILL SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO PUSH SSE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND OFFSHORE AROUND
DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND NE AFTER THE CFP AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE...BECOMING ORIENTED NE-SW. WEAK SFC
LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL THUS KEEP A
SEMI-TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP NNE TO NE WINDS AT 10 TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THIS SFC LOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT AND BE COMPRISED
INITIALLY OF SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES BECOMING N-NE WIND DRIVEN. A
MORE SOLID 3 TO 4 FT WILL EXIST OVER THE ILM NC WATERS...FROM CAPE
FEAR NORTHWARD. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 3 TO 6 SECONDS. POST
FRONTAL PCPN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK LOW LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED FAIRLY FAR OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A FLAT/ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING MUCH OF
ITS LENGTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO BOOST THE
GRADIENT AND THE RESULTING NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RUN CLOSE TO
CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS. AS THIS LOW CONGEALS INTO A MORE CIRCULAR
SYSTEM AND PULLS AWAY TO THE NE LOCAL FLOW WILL BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF LULL AS THE NEXT LOW AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINE THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL AND A
BLAST OF COLD AIR AND SURGE IN GRADIENT WILL GET UNDERWAY
IMMEDIATELY ON SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES YET AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
NOT BEING SAMPLED BY THE CONUS UPPER AIR BALLOONS. THIS WILL CHANGE
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IT WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG MIXING
OF THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER SSTS. STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD BE A BIT LONGER FUSED THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG EARLY
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY DURING THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY
BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY
SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW
LIGHTER.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KILM 300828
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
428 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY WHILE FRIDAY TURNS A BIT
COOLER. SATURDAY WILL TURN ABRUPTLY COLDER WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND A WINTER-LIKE CHILL IN THE AFTERNOON BREEZE. SUNDAY WILL BE
ALMOST AS COLD BUT NOT AS WINDY AND BOTH NIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING LOWS IN THE 30S, SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLDER OF THE TWO. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILM CWA USING KLTX SRM/V PRODUCTS AT THE
0.5 DEGREE SLICE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED OFF THE COAST FROM THE ILM NC COUNTIES...AND EXTENDS FROM
MYRTLE BEACH SW TO TRIO OF WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. CONTINUED SSE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT WILL TAKE IT OFF THE ILM SC COAST AND
LIKELY REACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF BOTH THE NC AND SC COASTS
BY DAYBREAK THU. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT...FROM SW TO NE...TO A POSITION JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTS BEFORE STALLING LATER TODAY. MORE PCPN THEN
EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE
CELLS EXHIBITING LIGHTNING. POPS WILL BE ADJUSTED WITH THE LAST OF
THE PCPN OFF THE COAST BEFORE NOON TODAY. THE NEXT PROBLEM DEALS
WITH THE EXTENT OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AS BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA QUITE DIFFERENT. THE
NAM LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE FOR BOTH CLOUDS AND PCPN
CHANCES AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS. DID KEEP
CLOUDY SKIES WELL INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT
CONTINUED THE PARTIAL CLEARING TREND INLAND. FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY
CLEAR WITH PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL WITH POPS REMAINING OFF THE COAST AS MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK SFC LOW MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS...BASICALLY DID A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE
WITH THE THINKING IS THE NAM BEING TOO LOW AND THE GFS RUNNING A
BIT HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER NONDESCRIPT ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE PERIOD SOON THEREAFTER. DEEP EASTERN U.S.
TROUGHINESS AND A COLD FRONT AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WHILE THE
AFTERNOON REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE A VERY
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO
THE TUNE OF A 36S-1 VORT MAX JUST EAST OF A NORTHERN JET OF 80KT AT
500MB AND 120KT AT 250MB. WITH SUCH ENERGY ALOFT IT FOLLOWS THAT
SOME DOWNRIGHT COLD AIR WILL BE BEING DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE
COLD BLAST IS SLATED FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL. THIS MEGA-VORT IS NOT
YET BEING SAMPLED BY THE DENSE UPPER AIR OF THE U.S. SO THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WHAT SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL RESULT. THIS MAINLY BEING RELEVANT SINCE THE
CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED WRF BRINGS IN A PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE CAPE FEAR COAST. BARRING THAT THE FORECAST IS MORE
SLANTED TOWARDS GFS/EC/PREV FCST. SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN
APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536
DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBING
AS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
WITH SOUTHERN ZONES OPERATING OFF OF PURE DYNAMICS WHILE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL BENEFIT FROM FURTHER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHEAST! THIS SYSTEM IS SO STRONG AND COLD
ALOFT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL WAS DISCUSSED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO. ITS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THOUGH SO THE CHILLY AND RAW AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A STRONG GRADIENT OF
WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REALLY GET THE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY. THE COLD ADVECTION EASES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
WIND STAYS UP WITH THE GRADIENT PRECLUDING RAD COOLING BUT FOR THE
SAME REASON SUCH CHILL SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY IS THE POST COLD ADVECTION DAY WHEREIN
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS
ALREADY TYPICALLY REVERSED BY THIS TIME THE MIXING IS SHALLOWER AND
TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ARE ALMOST AS LARGE AS THE PRIOR
DAY BUT NOT QUITE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD APPLY ON SUNDAY. SIMILARLY THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RAD COOLING...AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF AN
OUTBREAK IS USUALLY THE SECOND NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS ALONG WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

EXPECT SCATTERED VFR POSSIBLY MVFR VSBY FROM -SHRA ALONG AND JUST
AFTER FROPA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ALONG AND LONG AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PROBLEM CHILD WELL INTO THE
DAYTIME THU HRS. BROKEN VFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY WILL RUN AOA
4K FT...WITH SOME DRYING OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS RESULTING IN
THESE CEILINGS BECOMING SCATTERED. VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
WITH NE WINDS DROPPING TO AOB 6 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO PUSH SSE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND OFFSHORE AROUND
DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND NE AFTER THE CFP AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE...BECOMING ORIENTED NE-SW. WEAK SFC
LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL THUS KEEP A
SEMI-TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP NNE TO NE WINDS AT 10 TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THIS SFC LOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT AND BE COMPRISED
INITIALLY OF SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES BECOMING N-NE WIND DRIVEN. A
MORE SOLID 3 TO 4 FT WILL EXIST OVER THE ILM NC WATERS...FROM CAPE
FEAR NORTHWARD. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 3 TO 6 SECONDS. POST
FRONTAL PCPN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK LOW LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED FAIRLY FAR OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A FLAT/ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING MUCH OF
ITS LENGTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO BOOST THE
GRADIENT AND THE RESULTING NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RUN CLOSE TO
CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS. AS THIS LOW CONGEALS INTO A MORE CIRCULAR
SYSTEM AND PULLS AWAY TO THE NE LOCAL FLOW WILL BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF LULL AS THE NEXT LOW AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINE THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL AND A
BLAST OF COLD AIR AND SURGE IN GRADIENT WILL GET UNDERWAY
IMMEDIATELY ON SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES YET AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
NOT BEING SAMPLED BY THE CONUS UPPER AIR BALLOONS. THIS WILL CHANGE
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IT WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG MIXING
OF THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER SSTS. STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD BE A BIT LONGER FUSED THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG EARLY
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY DURING THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY
BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY
SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW
LIGHTER.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH








000
FXUS62 KILM 300758
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
358 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY WHILE FRIDAY TURNS A BIT
COOLER. SATURDAY WILL TURN ABRUPTLY COLDER WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND A WINTER-LIKE CHILL IN THE AFTERNOON BREEZE. SUNDAY WILL BE
ALMOST AS COLD BUT NOT AS WINDY AND BOTH NIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING LOWS IN THE 30S, SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLDER OF THE TWO. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILM CWA USING KLTX SRM/V PRODUCTS AT THE
0.5 DEGREE SLICE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME....THE COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED OFF THE COAST FROM THE ILM NC COUNTIES...AND EXTENDS FROM
MYRTLE BEACH SW TO TRIO OF WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. CONTINUED SSE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT WILL TAKE IT OFF THE ILM SC COAST AND
LIKELY REACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF BOTH THE NC AND SC COASTS
BY DAYBREAK THU. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT...FROM SW TO NE...TO A POSITION JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTS BEFORE STALLING LATER TODAY. MORE PCPN THEN
EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE
CELLS EXHIBITING LIGHTNING. POPS WILL BE ADJUSTED WITH THE LAST OF
THE PCPN OFF THE COAST BEFORE NOON TODAY. THE NEXT PROBLEM DEALS
WITH THE EXTENT OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AS BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA QUITE DIFFERENT. THE
NAM LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE FOR BOTH CLOUDS AND PCPN
CHANCES AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS. DID KEEP
CLOUDY SKIES WELL INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT
CONTINUED THE PARTIAL CLEARING TREND INLAND. FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY
CLEAR WITH PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL WITH POPS REMAINING OFF THE COAST AS MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK SFC LOW MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS...BASICALLY DID A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE
WITH THE THINKING IS THE NAM BEING TOO LOW AND THE GFS RUNNING A
BIT HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER NONDESCRIPT ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE PERIOD SOON THEREAFTER. DEEP EASTERN U.S.
TROUGHINESS AND A COLD FRONT AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WHILE THE
AFTERNOON REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE A VERY
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO
THE TUNE OF A 36S-1 VORT MAX JUST EAST OF A NORTHERN JET OF 80KT AT
500MB AND 120KT AT 250MB. WITH SUCH ENERGY ALOFT IT FOLLOWS THAT
SOME DOWNRIGHT COLD AIR WILL BE BEING DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE
COLD BLAST IS SLATED FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL. THIS MEGA-VORT IS NOT
YET BEING SAMPLED BY THE DENSE UPPER AIR OF THE U.S. SO THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WHAT SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL RESULT. THIS MAINLY BEING RELEVANT SINCE THE
CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED WRF BRINGS IN A PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE CAPE FEAR COAST. BARRING THAT THE FORECAST IS MORE
SLANTED TOWARDS GFS/EC/PREV FCST. SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN
APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536
DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBING
AS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
WITH SOUTHERN ZONES OPERATING OFF OF PURE DYNAMICS WHILE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL BENEFIT FROM FURTHER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHEAST! THIS SYSTEM IS SO STRONG AND COLD
ALOFT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL WAS DISCUSSED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO. ITS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THOUGH SO THE CHILLY AND RAW AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A STRONG GRADIENT OF
WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REALLY GET THE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY. THE COLD ADVECTION EASES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
WIND STAYS UP WITH THE GRADIENT PRECLUDING RAD COOLING BUT FOR THE
SAME REASON SUCH CHILL SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY IS THE POST COLD ADVECTION DAY WHEREIN
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS
ALREADY TYPICALLY REVERSED BY THIS TIME THE MIXING IS SHALLOWER AND
TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ARE ALMOST AS LARGE AS THE PRIOR
DAY BUT NOT QUITE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD APPLY ON SUNDAY. SIMILARLY THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RAD COOLING...AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF AN
OUTBREAK IS USUALLY THE SECOND NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS ALONG WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

EXPECT SCATTERED VFR POSSIBLY MVFR VSBY FROM -SHRA ALONG AND JUST
AFTER FROPA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ALONG AND LONG AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PROBLEM CHILD WELL INTO THE
DAYTIME THU HRS. BROKEN VFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY WILL RUN AOA
4K FT...WITH SOME DRYING OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS RESULTING IN
THESE CEILINGS BECOMING SCATTERED. VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
WITH NE WINDS DROPPING TO AOB 6 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SW WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KTS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. THIS IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED FAIRLY FAR OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A FLAT/ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING MUCH OF
ITS LENGTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO BOOST THE
GRADIENT AND THE RESULTING NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RUN CLOSE TO
CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS. AS THIS LOW CONGEALS INTO A MORE CIRCULAR
SYSTEM AND PULLS AWAY TO THE NE LOCAL FLOW WILL BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF LULL AS THE NEXT LOW AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINE THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL AND A
BLAST OF COLD AIR AND SURGE IN GRADIENT WILL GET UNDERWAY
IMMEDIATELY ON SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES YET AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
NOT BEING SAMPLED BY THE CONUS UPPER AIR BALLOONS. THIS WILL CHANGE
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IT WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG MIXING
OF THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER SSTS. STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD BE A BIT LONGER FUSED THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG EARLY
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY DURING THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY
BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY
SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW
LIGHTER.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH









000
FXUS62 KILM 300722
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY WHILE FRIDAY TURNS A BIT
COOLER. SATURDAY WILL TURN ABRUPTLY COLDER WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND A WINTER-LIKE CHILL IN THE AFTERNOON BREEZE. SUNDAY WILL BE
ALMOST AS COLD BUT NOT AS WINDY AND BOTH NIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING LOWS IN THE 30S, SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLDER OF THE TWO. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES FROM EARLIER UPDATE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT.
ACTIVITY IS PRETTY WEAK WITH CORES ONLY UP TO AROUND 12 KFT. THE
FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AT PRESENT RATE SHOULD
BE MOVING ACROSS SHORTLY. EXPECT FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TO GO WITH MINIMAL CHANGES THIS
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF CLT...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE A BIT
TOO SLOW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SOME AS IT MOVES
FARTHER FROM THE MID LEVEL COLD PUSH IT IS STILL ABOUT 3 HOURS
AHEAD OF WHERE THE 12Z NAM THINKS IT SHOULD BE. FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LOWS STILL END UP ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE CLIMO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS/MIXING POST
FRONT AND THE OVERALL LACKADAISICAL NATURAL OF THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THE COLD FROPA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MESHES
WELL WITH 12Z NAM HINTING AT MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIFT AFFORDED
BY THE FRONT AND THE TRAILING COLD AIR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TAP
INTO WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT IN NAMBFR SOUNDINGS AROUND 850 MB.
DO NOT THINK QPF WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ISOLATED QUARTER
INCH AT MOST...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHC POP BUT SHIFTED
DISTRIBUTION AROUND A BIT...HAVE HIGHEST POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC
WITH LOWEST ACROSS COASTAL SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER NONDESCRIPT ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE PERIOD SOON THEREAFTER. DEEP EASTERN U.S.
TROUGHINESS AND A COLD FRONT AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WHILE THE
AFTERNOON REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE A VERY
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO
THE TUNE OF A 36S-1 VORT MAX JUST EAST OF A NORTHERN JET OF 80KT AT
500MB AND 120KT AT 250MB. WITH SUCH ENERGY ALOFT IT FOLLOWS THAT
SOME DOWNRIGHT COLD AIR WILL BE BEING DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE
COLD BLAST IS SLATED FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL. THIS MEGA-VORT IS NOT
YET BEING SAMPLED BY THE DENSE UPPER AIR OF THE U.S. SO THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WHAT SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL RESULT. THIS MAINLY BEING RELEVANT SINCE THE
CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED WRF BRINGS IN A PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE CAPE FEAR COAST. BARRING THAT THE FORECAST IS MORE
SLANTED TOWARDS GFS/EC/PREV FCST. SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN
APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536
DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBING
AS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
WITH SOUTHERN ZONES OPERATING OFF OF PURE DYNAMICS WHILE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL BENEFIT FROM FURTHER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHEAST! THIS SYSTEM IS SO STRONG AND COLD
ALOFT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL WAS DISCUSSED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO. ITS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THOUGH SO THE CHILLY AND RAW AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A STRONG GRADIENT OF
WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REALLY GET THE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY. THE COLD ADVECTION EASES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
WIND STAYS UP WITH THE GRADIENT PRECLUDING RAD COOLING BUT FOR THE
SAME REASON SUCH CHILL SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY IS THE POST COLD ADVECTION DAY WHEREIN
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS
ALREADY TYPICALLY REVERSED BY THIS TIME THE MIXING IS SHALLOWER AND
TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ARE ALMOST AS LARGE AS THE PRIOR
DAY BUT NOT QUITE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD APPLY ON SUNDAY. SIMILARLY THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RAD COOLING...AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF AN
OUTBREAK IS USUALLY THE SECOND NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS ALONG WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

EXPECT SCATTERED VFR POSSIBLY MVFR VSBY FROM -SHRA ALONG AND JUST
AFTER FROPA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ALONG AND LONG AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PROBLEM CHILD WELL INTO THE
DAYTIME THU HRS. BROKEN VFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY WILL RUN AOA
4K FT...WITH SOME DRYING OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS RESULTING IN
THESE CEILINGS BECOMING SCATTERED. VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
WITH NE WINDS DROPPING TO AOB 6 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SW WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KTS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. THIS IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED FAIRLY FAR OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A FLAT/ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING MUCH OF
ITS LENGTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO BOOST THE
GRADIENT AND THE RESULTING NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RUN CLOSE TO
CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS. AS THIS LOW CONGEALS INTO A MORE CIRCULAR
SYSTEM AND PULLS AWAY TO THE NE LOCAL FLOW WILL BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF LULL AS THE NEXT LOW AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINE THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL AND A
BLAST OF COLD AIR AND SURGE IN GRADIENT WILL GET UNDERWAY
IMMEDIATELY ON SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES YET AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
NOT BEING SAMPLED BY THE CONUS UPPER AIR BALLOONS. THIS WILL CHANGE
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IT WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG MIXING
OF THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER SSTS. STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD BE A BIT LONGER FUSED THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG EARLY
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY DURING THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY
BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY
SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW
LIGHTER.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH










000
FXUS62 KILM 300645
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
245 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE OCTOBER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE DIVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES FROM EARLIER UPDATE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT.
ACTIVITY IS PRETTY WEAK WITH CORES ONLY UP TO AROUND 12 KFT. THE
FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AT PRESENT RATE SHOULD
BE MOVING ACROSS SHORTLY. EXPECT FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TO GO WITH MINIMAL CHANGES THIS
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF CLT...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE A BIT
TOO SLOW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SOME AS IT MOVES
FARTHER FROM THE MID LEVEL COLD PUSH IT IS STILL ABOUT 3 HOURS
AHEAD OF WHERE THE 12Z NAM THINKS IT SHOULD BE. FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LOWS STILL END UP ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE CLIMO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS/MIXING POST
FRONT AND THE OVERALL LACKADAISICAL NATURAL OF THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THE COLD FROPA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MESHES
WELL WITH 12Z NAM HINTING AT MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIFT AFFORDED
BY THE FRONT AND THE TRAILING COLD AIR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TAP
INTO WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT IN NAMBFR SOUNDINGS AROUND 850 MB.
DO NOT THINK QPF WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ISOLATED QUARTER
INCH AT MOST...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHC POP BUT SHIFTED
DISTRIBUTION AROUND A BIT...HAVE HIGHEST POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC
WITH LOWEST ACROSS COASTAL SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS THE
RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE
OCTOBER...MARKED BY POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM NNE-NE AT MODERATE
STRENGTH IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
10-13 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOST PCPN WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE SO LOW POP
PERIOD OVERALL...BUT ANOTHER AND MORE POWERFUL IMPULSE WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY PRIOR TO
VERY STRONG COOLING.

RH ANALYSIS THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOWS STRATO-CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH
CURRENT PRESSURE ANALYSIS AND VSBL IMAGERY AS PLENTIFUL CLOUDS ARE
IN FACT LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR WILL COME IN FORCE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND DEEP TROUGH TO
PRODUCE EXTREME HEIGHT FALLS AS IT RIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. H5
HEIGHTS DROP BELOW 540 DEM BY SAT AFTN AS A STRONG VORT LOBE RIDES
THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY...THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOWING 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY SAT AFTN. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND AND FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...TEMPS ON SAT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THROUGH THE 50S...BY FAR THE COLDER AIR OF THE
SEASON.

DEEP CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN
STRONG N-NW WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR POSSIBLY HIGHER SAT AFTN AS WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW 40 SAT NIGHT
IN CONTINUED CAA AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RETURN INTO THE 50S FOR
SUNDAY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE PCP WATER VALUES WILL
DROP DOWN TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS BY SUN AFTN AND DEWPOINT
TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW 30 DEGREES F BY LATE SUN OR EARLY MONDAY AS
COLUMN DRIES OUT FURTHER.

AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD AND RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ALOFT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER REACHING BACK UP ABOVE 580
DEM BY MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL VALUES...UP
INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 70 ON TUES. THE COOLEST NIGHT
WILL BE SUN NIGHT IN MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPS IN THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH SOME PATCHY FROST...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS ALONG WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

EXPECT SCATTERED VFR POSSIBLY MVFR VSBY FROM -SHRA ALONG AND JUST
AFTER FROPA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ALONG AND LONG AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PROBLEM CHILD WELL INTO THE
DAYTIME THU HRS. BROKEN VFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY WILL RUN AOA
4K FT...WITH SOME DRYING OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS RESULTING IN
THESE CEILINGS BECOMING SCATTERED. VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
WITH NE WINDS DROPPING TO AOB 6 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SW WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KTS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. THIS IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST-
NORTHWEST BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED AT FIRST. INTI ALLY THE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN AHEAD OF IT
AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KT. LATE IN THE PERIOD COLDER
AIR STARTS TO FUNNEL IN AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THIS WILL
PUSH WINDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AROUND DAY BREAK.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY RISE...GOING FROM 2 TO 3 FT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NNE-NE WINDS OF MODERATE STRENGTH DOMINATE
THIS TIME PERIOD IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY. SEA
HEIGHTS MAINLY 3-4 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS...COMPRISED
OF 1-1.5 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND MODERATE NE CHOP AND
WIND-SEAS. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE VERY EARLY
THURSDAY.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
WATERS ON SAT WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS ABOVE 25 TO 30 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING FROM SAT MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS
UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI RAPIDLY UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS
SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTN. EXPECT
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH
GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD LATE SUN INTO MONDAY...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE
NE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS
HOLDING ON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE WARMER WATERS KEEPING A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE...BUT OVERALL
N-NE WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MON MORNING. SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUN MORNING AND WILL BE BACK
DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH







000
FXUS62 KILM 300634
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
234 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE OCTOBER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE DIVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES FROM EARLIER UPDATE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT.
ACTIVITY IS PRETTY WEAK WITH CORES ONLY UP TO AROUND 12 KFT. THE
FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AT PRESENT RATE SHOULD
BE MOVING ACROSS SHORTLY. EXPECT FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TO GO WITH MINIMAL CHANGES THIS
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF CLT...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE A BIT
TOO SLOW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SOME AS IT MOVES
FARTHER FROM THE MID LEVEL COLD PUSH IT IS STILL ABOUT 3 HOURS
AHEAD OF WHERE THE 12Z NAM THINKS IT SHOULD BE. FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LOWS STILL END UP ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE CLIMO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS/MIXING POST
FRONT AND THE OVERALL LACKADAISICAL NATURAL OF THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THE COLD FROPA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MESHES
WELL WITH 12Z NAM HINTING AT MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIFT AFFORDED
BY THE FRONT AND THE TRAILING COLD AIR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TAP
INTO WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT IN NAMBFR SOUNDINGS AROUND 850 MB.
DO NOT THINK QPF WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ISOLATED QUARTER
INCH AT MOST...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHC POP BUT SHIFTED
DISTRIBUTION AROUND A BIT...HAVE HIGHEST POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC
WITH LOWEST ACROSS COASTAL SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS THE
RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE
OCTOBER...MARKED BY POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM NNE-NE AT MODERATE
STRENGTH IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
10-13 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOST PCPN WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE SO LOW POP
PERIOD OVERALL...BUT ANOTHER AND MORE POWERFUL IMPULSE WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY PRIOR TO
VERY STRONG COOLING.

RH ANALYSIS THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOWS STRATO-CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH
CURRENT PRESSURE ANALYSIS AND VSBL IMAGERY AS PLENTIFUL CLOUDS ARE
IN FACT LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR WILL COME IN FORCE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND DEEP TROUGH TO
PRODUCE EXTREME HEIGHT FALLS AS IT RIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. H5
HEIGHTS DROP BELOW 540 DEM BY SAT AFTN AS A STRONG VORT LOBE RIDES
THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY...THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOWING 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY SAT AFTN. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND AND FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...TEMPS ON SAT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THROUGH THE 50S...BY FAR THE COLDER AIR OF THE
SEASON.

DEEP CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN
STRONG N-NW WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR POSSIBLY HIGHER SAT AFTN AS WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW 40 SAT NIGHT
IN CONTINUED CAA AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RETURN INTO THE 50S FOR
SUNDAY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE PCP WATER VALUES WILL
DROP DOWN TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS BY SUN AFTN AND DEWPOINT
TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW 30 DEGREES F BY LATE SUN OR EARLY MONDAY AS
COLUMN DRIES OUT FURTHER.

AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD AND RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ALOFT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER REACHING BACK UP ABOVE 580
DEM BY MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL VALUES...UP
INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 70 ON TUES. THE COOLEST NIGHT
WILL BE SUN NIGHT IN MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPS IN THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH SOME PATCHY FROST...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS ALONG WITH THE PASSING OF
A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

EXPECT SCATTERED VFR POSSIBLY MVFR VSBY FROM -SHRA ALONG AND JUST
AFTER FROPA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ALONG AND LONG AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PROBLEM CHILD WELL INTO THE
DAYTIME THU HRS. BROKEN VFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY WILL RUN AOA
4K FT...WITH SOME DRYING OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS RESULTING IN
THESE CEILINGS BECOMING SCATTERED. VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
WITH NE WINDS DROPPING TO AOB 6 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SW WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KTS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. THIS IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST-
NORTHWEST BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED AT FIRST. INTI ALLY THE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN AHEAD OF IT
AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KT. LATE IN THE PERIOD COLDER
AIR STARTS TO FUNNEL IN AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THIS WILL
PUSH WINDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AROUND DAY BREAK.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY RISE...GOING FROM 2 TO 3 FT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NNE-NE WINDS OF MODERATE STRENGTH DOMINATE
THIS TIME PERIOD IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY. SEA
HEIGHTS MAINLY 3-4 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS...COMPRISED
OF 1-1.5 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND MODERATE NE CHOP AND
WIND-SEAS. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE VERY EARLY
THURSDAY.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
WATERS ON SAT WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS ABOVE 25 TO 30 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING FROM SAT MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS
UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI RAPIDLY UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS
SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTN. EXPECT
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH
GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD LATE SUN INTO MONDAY...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE
NE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS
HOLDING ON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE WARMER WATERS KEEPING A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE...BUT OVERALL
N-NE WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MON MORNING. SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUN MORNING AND WILL BE BACK
DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 300213
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1013 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE OCTOBER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE DIVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES FROM EARLIER UPDATE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT.
ACTIVITY IS PRETTY WEAK WITH CORES ONLY UP TO AROUND 12 KFT. THE
FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AT PRESENT RATE SHOULD
BE MOVING ACROSS SHORTLY. EXPECT FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TO GO WITH MINIMAL CHANGES THIS
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF CLT...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE A BIT
TOO SLOW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SOME AS IT MOVES
FARTHER FROM THE MID LEVEL COLD PUSH IT IS STILL ABOUT 3 HOURS
AHEAD OF WHERE THE 12Z NAM THINKS IT SHOULD BE. FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LOWS STILL END UP ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE CLIMO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS/MIXING POST
FRONT AND THE OVERALL LACKADAISICAL NATURAL OF THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THE COLD FROPA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MESHES
WELL WITH 12Z NAM HINTING AT MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIFT AFFORDED
BY THE FRONT AND THE TRAILING COLD AIR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TAP
INTO WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT IN NAMBFR SOUNDINGS AROUND 850 MB.
DO NOT THINK QPF WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ISOLATED QUARTER
INCH AT MOST...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHC POP BUT SHIFTED
DISTRIBUTION AROUND A BIT...HAVE HIGHEST POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC
WITH LOWEST ACROSS COASTAL SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS THE
RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE
OCTOBER...MARKED BY POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM NNE-NE AT MODERATE
STRENGTH IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
10-13 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOST PCPN WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE SO LOW POP
PERIOD OVERALL...BUT ANOTHER AND MORE POWERFUL IMPULSE WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY PRIOR TO
VERY STRONG COOLING.

RH ANALYSIS THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOWS STRATO-CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH
CURRENT PRESSURE ANALYSIS AND VSBL IMAGERY AS PLENTIFUL CLOUDS ARE
IN FACT LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR WILL COME IN FORCE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND DEEP TROUGH TO
PRODUCE EXTREME HEIGHT FALLS AS IT RIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. H5
HEIGHTS DROP BELOW 540 DEM BY SAT AFTN AS A STRONG VORT LOBE RIDES
THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY...THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOWING 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY SAT AFTN. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND AND FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...TEMPS ON SAT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THROUGH THE 50S...BY FAR THE COLDER AIR OF THE
SEASON.

DEEP CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN
STRONG N-NW WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR POSSIBLY HIGHER SAT AFTN AS WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW 40 SAT NIGHT
IN CONTINUED CAA AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RETURN INTO THE 50S FOR
SUNDAY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE PCP WATER VALUES WILL
DROP DOWN TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS BY SUN AFTN AND DEWPOINT
TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW 30 DEGREES F BY LATE SUN OR EARLY MONDAY AS
COLUMN DRIES OUT FURTHER.

AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD AND RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ALOFT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER REACHING BACK UP ABOVE 580
DEM BY MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL VALUES...UP
INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 70 ON TUES. THE COOLEST NIGHT
WILL BE SUN NIGHT IN MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPS IN THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH SOME PATCHY FROST...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO OUR WEST...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AFFECTING
KFLO...AND POSSIBLY KLBT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OVERALL EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST...INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SW WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KTS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. THIS IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST-
NORTHWEST BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED AT FIRST. INTI ALLY THE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN AHEAD OF IT
AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KT. LATE IN THE PERIOD COLDER
AIR STARTS TO FUNNEL IN AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THIS WILL
PUSH WINDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AROUND DAY BREAK.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY RISE...GOING FROM 2 TO 3 FT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NNE-NE WINDS OF MODERATE STRENGTH DOMINATE
THIS TIME PERIOD IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY. SEA
HEIGHTS MAINLY 3-4 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS...COMPRISED
OF 1-1.5 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND MODERATE NE CHOP AND
WIND-SEAS. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE VERY EARLY
THURSDAY.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
WATERS ON SAT WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS ABOVE 25 TO 30 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING FROM SAT MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS
UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI RAPIDLY UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS
SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTN. EXPECT
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH
GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD LATE SUN INTO MONDAY...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE
NE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS
HOLDING ON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE WARMER WATERS KEEPING A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE...BUT OVERALL
N-NE WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MON MORNING. SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUN MORNING AND WILL BE BACK
DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/III






000
FXUS62 KILM 292358
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
758 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE OCTOBER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE DIVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 8 PM WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY IS PRETTY WEAK WITH
CORES ONLY UP TO AROUND 12 KFT. THE FRONT IS STILL NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT AT PRESENT RATE SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS
BEGINNING IN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. EXPECT FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TO GO WITH MINIMAL CHANGES
THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF CLT...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE A BIT
TOO SLOW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SOME AS IT MOVES
FARTHER FROM THE MID LEVEL COLD PUSH IT IS STILL ABOUT 3 HOURS
AHEAD OF WHERE THE 12Z NAM THINKS IT SHOULD BE. FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LOWS STILL END UP ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE CLIMO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS/MIXING POST
FRONT AND THE OVERALL LACKADAISICAL NATURAL OF THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THE COLD FROPA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MESHES
WELL WITH 12Z NAM HINTING AT MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIFT AFFORDED
BY THE FRONT AND THE TRAILING COLD AIR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TAP
INTO WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT IN NAMBFR SOUNDINGS AROUND 850 MB.
DO NOT THINK QPF WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ISOLATED QUARTER
INCH AT MOST...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHC POP BUT SHIFTED
DISTRIBUTION AROUND A BIT...HAVE HIGHEST POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC
WITH LOWEST ACROSS COASTAL SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS THE
RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE
OCTOBER...MARKED BY POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM NNE-NE AT MODERATE
STRENGTH IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
10-13 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOST PCPN WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE SO LOW POP
PERIOD OVERALL...BUT ANOTHER AND MORE POWERFUL IMPULSE WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY PRIOR TO
VERY STRONG COOLING.

RH ANALYSIS THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOWS STRATO-CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH
CURRENT PRESSURE ANALYSIS AND VSBL IMAGERY AS PLENTIFUL CLOUDS ARE
IN FACT LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR WILL COME IN FORCE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND DEEP TROUGH TO
PRODUCE EXTREME HEIGHT FALLS AS IT RIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. H5
HEIGHTS DROP BELOW 540 DEM BY SAT AFTN AS A STRONG VORT LOBE RIDES
THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY...THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOWING 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY SAT AFTN. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND AND FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...TEMPS ON SAT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THROUGH THE 50S...BY FAR THE COLDER AIR OF THE
SEASON.

DEEP CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN
STRONG N-NW WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR POSSIBLY HIGHER SAT AFTN AS WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW 40 SAT NIGHT
IN CONTINUED CAA AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RETURN INTO THE 50S FOR
SUNDAY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE PCP WATER VALUES WILL
DROP DOWN TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS BY SUN AFTN AND DEWPOINT
TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW 30 DEGREES F BY LATE SUN OR EARLY MONDAY AS
COLUMN DRIES OUT FURTHER.

AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD AND RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ALOFT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER REACHING BACK UP ABOVE 580
DEM BY MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL VALUES...UP
INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 70 ON TUES. THE COOLEST NIGHT
WILL BE SUN NIGHT IN MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPS IN THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH SOME PATCHY FROST...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO OUR WEST...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AFFECTING
KFLO...AND POSSIBLY KLBT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OVERALL EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST...INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST...WHICH
REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST-
NORTHWEST BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED AT FIRST. INTI ALLY THE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN AHEAD OF IT
AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KT. LATE IN THE PERIOD COLDER
AIR STARTS TO FUNNEL IN AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THIS WILL
PUSH WINDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AROUND DAY BREAK.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY RISE...GOING FROM 2 TO 3 FT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NNE-NE WINDS OF MODERATE STRENGTH DOMINATE
THIS TIME PERIOD IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY. SEA
HEIGHTS MAINLY 3-4 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS...COMPRISED
OF 1-1.5 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND MODERATE NE CHOP AND
WIND-SEAS. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE VERY EARLY
THURSDAY.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
WATERS ON SAT WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS ABOVE 25 TO 30 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING FROM SAT MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS
UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI RAPIDLY UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS
SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTN. EXPECT
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH
GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD LATE SUN INTO MONDAY...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE
NE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS
HOLDING ON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE WARMER WATERS KEEPING A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE...BUT OVERALL
N-NE WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MON MORNING. SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUN MORNING AND WILL BE BACK
DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/III






000
FXUS62 KILM 291900
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE OCTOBER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE DIVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE
VICINITY OF CLT...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM BUT EVEN
THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO SLOW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN
SOME AS IT MOVES FARTHER FROM THE MID LEVEL COLD PUSH IT IS STILL
ABOUT 3 HOURS AHEAD OF WHERE THE 12Z NAM THINKS IT SHOULD BE.
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE
ANTICIPATED COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LOWS STILL END UP
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS/MIXING
POST FRONT AND THE OVERALL LACKADAISICAL NATURAL OF THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THE COLD FROPA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MESHES
WELL WITH 12Z NAM HINTING AT MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIFT AFFORDED BY
THE FRONT AND THE TRAILING COLD AIR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT IN NAMBFR SOUNDINGS AROUND 850 MB. DO NOT
THINK QPF WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ISOLATED QUARTER INCH AT
MOST...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP BUT SHIFTED DISTRIBUTION
AROUND A BIT...HAVE HIGHEST POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC WITH LOWEST
ACROSS COASTAL SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS
THE RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE
OCTOBER...MARKED BY POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM NNE-NE AT MODERATE
STRENGTH IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
10-13 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOST PCPN WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE SO LOW POP
PERIOD OVERALL...BUT ANOTHER AND MORE POWERFUL IMPULSE WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY PRIOR TO
VERY STRONG COOLING.

RH ANALYSIS THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOWS STRATO-CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH
CURRENT PRESSURE ANALYSIS AND VSBL IMAGERY AS PLENTIFUL CLOUDS
ARE IN FACT LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR WILL COME IN FORCE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND DEEP TROUGH TO
PRODUCE EXTREME HEIGHT FALLS AS IT RIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. H5
HEIGHTS DROP BELOW 540 DEM BY SAT AFTN AS A STRONG VORT LOBE RIDES
THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY...THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOWING 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY SAT AFTN. WITH CLOUDS
AROUND AND FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...TEMPS ON SAT WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THROUGH THE 50S...BY FAR THE COLDER AIR OF THE SEASON.

DEEP CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN STRONG
N-NW WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH OR POSSIBLY HIGHER SAT AFTN AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW 40 SAT NIGHT IN CONTINUED
CAA AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RETURN INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OR LESS BY SUN AFTN AND DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW
30 DEGREES F BY LATE SUN OR EARLY MONDAY AS COLUMN DRIES OUT
FURTHER.

AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD AND RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ALOFT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER REACHING BACK UP ABOVE 580 DEM BY
MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL VALUES...UP INTO THE
60S ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 70 ON TUES. THE COOLEST NIGHT WILL BE SUN
NIGHT IN MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE 30S
MOST PLACES WITH SOME PATCHY FROST...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE
LACKING. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY THROUGH TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY AROUND 10 KTS. TONIGHT...FRONT
PUSHES FAIRLY RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTERMITTENT
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY VFR. POST
FRONTAL...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SKIES SCATTERING
SHORTLY AFTER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL
VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED AT FIRST.
INTI ALLY THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
AHEAD OF IT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KT. LATE IN THE
PERIOD COLDER AIR STARTS TO FUNNEL IN AND GRADIENT BECOMES
PINCHED. THIS WILL PUSH WINDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT
AROUND DAY BREAK. SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY RISE...GOING
FROM 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NNE-NE WINDS OF MODERATE STRENGTH DOMINATE
THIS TIME PERIOD IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY. SEA HEIGHTS
MAINLY 3-4 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS...COMPRISED OF 1-1.5
FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND MODERATE NE CHOP AND WIND-SEAS.
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE VERY EARLY THURSDAY.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
WATERS ON SAT WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS ABOVE 25 TO 30 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING FROM SAT MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS
UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI RAPIDLY UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS
SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTN. EXPECT
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH
GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD LATE SUN INTO MONDAY...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE NE
BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS HOLDING ON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WARMER
WATERS KEEPING A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE...BUT OVERALL N-NE WINDS WILL
BE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MON MORNING. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUN MORNING AND WILL BE BACK DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/III






000
FXUS62 KILM 291814
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
214 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP COMPLEMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY THEN TURNS
BLUSTERY WITH WINTER-LIKE COLD THAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY. A VERY
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE
VICINITY OF CLT...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM BUT EVEN THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO SLOW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SOME
AS IT MOVES FARTHER FROM THE MID LEVEL COLD PUSH IT IS STILL ABOUT
3 HOURS AHEAD OF WHERE THE 12Z NAM THINKS IT SHOULD BE. FRONT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LOWS STILL END UP ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE CLIMO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS/MIXING POST
FRONT AND THE OVERALL LACKADAISICAL NATURAL OF THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THE COLD FROPA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MESHES
WELL WITH 12Z NAM HINTING AT MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIFT AFFORDED BY
THE FRONT AND THE TRAILING COLD AIR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT IN NAMBFR SOUNDINGS AROUND 850 MB. DO NOT
THINK QPF WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ISOLATED QUARTER INCH AT
MOST...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP BUT SHIFTED DISTRIBUTION
AROUND A BIT...HAVE HIGHEST POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC WITH LOWEST
ACROSS COASTAL SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR PUSHING IN RAPIDLY FROM POINTS
NORTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
COASTAL LOCALES MAY SEE SOME MORNING SPRINKLES BUT THATS ABOUT IT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING BACK AND A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT LINE OF VORTICITY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
STILL DIVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
MANAGE SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE BUT IT ALL APPEARS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE LOCALLY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH IS QUITE NEAR CLIMO...BUT WILL HAVE A COOLISH FEEL
AFTER THE WARM FEW DAYS PRECEDING THE SHORT TERM. THE COLUMN REMAINS
QUITE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE DYNAMICS TAKING SHAPE ALOFT
WILL BE INCREDIBLY STRONG. THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND BECOMES ONE OF THE STRONGEST VORTICITY
CENTERS I CAN REMEMBER SEEING IN QUITE A WHILE LOCALLY. AHEAD OF IT
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS BUT OVERALL
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THERE ARE BIG
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE HEART OF
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WRF IS
NOTABLY SLOWER AND HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. THE GFS IS USUALLY
TOO FAST TO BRING THE COLD AIR ESP WHEN IT HAS TO NEGOTIATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN SO...FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SHOULD THE MODEL VERIFY. BY 12Z SATURDAY IT HAS ALREADY
SWUNG SOME FRIGHTFULLY STRONG CAA THROUGH THE REGION AND HAS A
POCKET OF 850MB -5C OVER WESTERN ZONES. THE (OLDER 12Z) ECMWF ARGUES
FOR FASTER AS WELL. IN THE END IT WILL LIKELY TAKE BETTER SAMPLING
OF THE MAIN VORT BY UA STATIONS TO RESOLVE THESE DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FIRST TASTE OF WINTER ARRIVES WITH THE MONTH
OF NOVEMBER ON SATURDAY. EXTREME VORT CENTER PASSING BY JUST TO THE
NORTH. SO STRONG IN FACT THAT IT MAY WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NRN ZONES OUT OF AN OTHERWISE DRY COLUMN. MOS NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SEEMINGLY STRUGGLE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IN SHOWING
HIGHS A `MERE` 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO/LOW 60S. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM -2C TO -5C THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY EVEN A WELL MIXED AFTERNOON MAY STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AND IT WILL BE WELL MIXED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. BL
WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WHICH COULD REPRESENT PEAK GUSTS FOR
SOME DOWNRIGHT NASTY WIND CHILLS. THE  MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD ABATES
ON SUNDAY FROM AN ADVECTION STANDPOINT BUT SHALLOWER MIXING DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL YIELD HUGE TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO.
SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST...EVEN THOUGH
RH VALUES MAY NOT. THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKING FOR MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THE
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL THUS BE SLOW, MORE A PROCESS OF SOLAR
HEATING THAN THERMAL ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING...MAINLY AROUND 10 KTS. TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES FAIRLY
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY VFR. POST FRONTAL...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SKIES SCATTERING SHORTLY AFTER. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST BY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL
VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED AT FIRST.
INTI ALLY THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
AHEAD OF IT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KT. LATE IN THE
PERIOD COLDER AIR STARTS TO FUNNEL IN AND GRADIENT BECOMES
PINCHED. THIS WILL PUSH WINDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT
AROUND DAY BREAK. SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY RISE...GOING
FROM 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SIT OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WAITING FOR A STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY PROBLEMATIC AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WELL-OFFSHORE BOUNDARY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT A
MAINTAINED WIND SPEED WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT STRONG SYSTEM ACTUALLY CAUSES LOCAL WINDS TO DIMINISH. FLAGS
LIKELY IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER AS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING BY JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SATURDAY. A NEW LOW CROSSES THE REGION ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING THEN
ENSUES WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE. ADVISORY
APPEARS LIKELY AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TOUGH TO RULE OUT. FLAGS
SHOULD CARRY INTO PART OF SUNDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE WANING AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY ACCELERATES WHILE DEEPENING. IT MAY SEND SOME
BACKSWELL TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 291053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
653 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP COMPLEMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY THEN TURNS
BLUSTERY WITH WINTER-LIKE COLD THAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY. A VERY
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...PREFER THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER/FASTER NAM
OVER THE GFS FOR THE ESE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...CROSSING THE
ILM CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING OFF THE ILM CWA
COASTLINE AND THRU THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE WEAK
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES. THE UPPER TROF NEVER REALLY AMPLIFIES
ENOUGH TO TAP/ACCESS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO AID PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AND/OR COVERAGE. THUS...MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT WILL BE WORKED ON AS WELL AS THE AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FA. IN ADDITION TO NOT GOING ANY HIER THAN
CHANCE POPS IS THE RATHER WEAK DYNAMICS ALOFT. FRONTAL DYNAMICS
ITSELF WITH LIKELY BE THE MAIN PLAYER TO AID PCPN ACTIVITY. WITH
THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE CFP...THIN TO OPAQUE CLOUDINESS WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM REACHING WELL
INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE FA
ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND THUS MAY HAVE A SHOT OF
BEING BROKEN.

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
WILMINGTON........82 1984
FLORENCE..........84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH...83/1991

AFTER THE CFP...LEFTOVER CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THU HOURS WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT PCPN LIKELY ENDING BEFORE
DAYBREAK. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MILDER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHTS LOWS EVENTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE CFP.
THINKING IS THE BEST CAA SURGE TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
DAYLIGHT THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR PUSHING IN RAPIDLY FROM POINTS
NORTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
COASTAL LOCALES MAY SEE SOME MORNING SPRINKLES BUT THATS ABOUT IT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING BACK AND A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT LINE OF VORTICITY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
STILL DIVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
MANAGE SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE BUT IT ALL APPEARS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE LOCALLY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH IS QUITE NEAR CLIMO...BUT WILL HAVE A COOLISH FEEL
AFTER THE WARM FEW DAYS PRECEDING THE SHORT TERM. THE COLUMN REMAINS
QUITE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE DYNAMICS TAKING SHAPE ALOFT
WILL BE INCREDIBLY STRONG. THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND BECOMES ONE OF THE STRONGEST VORTICITY
CENTERS I CAN REMEMBER SEEING IN QUITE A WHILE LOCALLY. AHEAD OF IT
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS BUT OVERALL
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THERE ARE BIG
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE HEART OF
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WRF IS
NOTABLY SLOWER AND HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. THE GFS IS USUALLY
TOO FAST TO BRING THE COLD AIR ESP WHEN IT HAS TO NEGOTIATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN SO...FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SHOULD THE MODEL VERIFY. BY 12Z SATURDAY IT HAS ALREADY
SWUNG SOME FRIGHTFULLY STRONG CAA THROUGH THE REGION AND HAS A
POCKET OF 850MB -5C OVER WESTERN ZONES. THE (OLDER 12Z) ECMWF ARGUES
FOR FASTER AS WELL. IN THE END IT WILL LIKELY TAKE BETTER SAMPLING
OF THE MAIN VORT BY UA STATIONS TO RESOLVE THESE DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FIRST TASTE OF WINTER ARRIVES WITH THE MONTH
OF NOVEMBER ON SATURDAY. EXTREME VORT CENTER PASSING BY JUST TO THE
NORTH. SO STRONG IN FACT THAT IT MAY WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NRN ZONES OUT OF AN OTHERWISE DRY COLUMN. MOS NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SEEMINGLY STRUGGLE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IN SHOWING
HIGHS A `MERE` 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO/LOW 60S. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM -2C TO -5C THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY EVEN A WELL MIXED AFTERNOON MAY STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AND IT WILL BE WELL MIXED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. BL
WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WHICH COULD REPRESENT PEAK GUSTS FOR
SOME DOWNRIGHT NASTY WIND CHILLS. THE  MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD ABATES
ON SUNDAY FROM AN ADVECTION STANDPOINT BUT SHALLOWER MIXING DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL YIELD HUGE TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO.
SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST...EVEN THOUGH
RH VALUES MAY NOT. THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKING FOR MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THE
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL THUS BE SLOW, MORE A PROCESS OF SOLAR
HEATING THAN THERMAL ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG/STRATUS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AT THIS POINT. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FROM 12-13Z...OTHERWISE VFR THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT WITH VCSH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
HONE THE TIMING DOWN WITH THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 02Z OR SO. THE BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL BE NARROW...LASTING ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY MORNING THRU FRIDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN FOCUS/PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...AND THE CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A NEW AND COOLER AIR
MASS.

VARIOUS MODELS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT SUPPORT A SW-WSW
WIND DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH SPEEDS AT 10
TO AROUND 15 KT. DURING THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...AND FINALLY OFFSHORE
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW-WSW TO W AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FURTHER VEERING TO THE NW IMMEDIATELY AFTER FROPA...AND
FROM THE NORTH AS THE CAA SURGE OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL WATERS BY
DAYBREAK. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT THEIR MINIMUM SPEEDS THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AFTER FROPA...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO A
SOLID 15 TO POSSIBLY 20 KT BY/AFTER DAYBREAK THU DUE TO THE CAA
SURGE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL MAINLY RUN 2 TO 4 FT. WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 3 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT
SEAS...WITH AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 9
SECOND PERIODS REMAINING PRESENT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SIT OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WAITING FOR A STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY PROBLEMATIC AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WELL-OFFSHORE BOUNDARY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT A
MAINTAINED WIND SPEED WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT STRONG SYSTEM ACTUALLY CAUSES LOCAL WINDS TO DIMINISH. FLAGS
LIKELY IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER AS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING BY JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SATURDAY. A NEW LOW CROSSES THE REGION ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING THEN
ENSUES WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE. ADVISORY
APPEARS LIKELY AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TOUGH TO RULE OUT. FLAGS
SHOULD CARRY INTO PART OF SUNDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE WANING AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY ACCELERATES WHILE DEEPENING. IT MAY SEND SOME
BACKSWELL TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...HDL






000
FXUS62 KILM 291031
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
621 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP COMPLEMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY THEN TURNS
BLUSTERY WITH WINTER-LIKE COLD THAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY. A VERY
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...PREFER THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER/FASTER NAM
OVER THE GFS FOR THE ESE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...CROSSING THE
ILM CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING OFF THE ILM CWA
COASTLINE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES. THE UPPER
TROF NEVER REALLY AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO TAP/ACCESS GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND/OR COVERAGE. THUS...MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL BE WORKED ON AS WELL AS THE AVBL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. IN ADDITION TO NOT GOING ANY HIER
WITH POPS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT IS THE RATHER WEAK DYNAMICS
ALOFT. FRONTAL DYNAMICS ITSELF WITH LIKELY BE THE MAIN PLAYER TO
AID PCPN ACTIVITY. WITH THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE CFP...THIN TO
OPAQUE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPS
FROM REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY ACROSS THE FA ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND THUS
MAY HAVE A SHOT OF BREAKING THEM...

LOCATION         WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON        82 1984
FLORENCE          84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH   83/1991

AFTER THE CFP...LEFTOVER CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THU HOURS WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT PCPN LIKELY ENDING BEFORE
DAYBREAK. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MILDER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHTS LOWS EVENTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE CFP.
THINKING IS THE BEST CAA SURGE TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
DAYLIGHT THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR PUSHING IN RAPIDLY FROM POINTS
NORTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
COASTAL LOCALES MAY SEE SOME MORNING SPRINKLES BUT THATS ABOUT IT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING BACK AND A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT LINE OF VORTICITY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
STILL DIVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
MANAGE SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE BUT IT ALL APPEARS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE LOCALLY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH IS QUITE NEAR CLIMO...BUT WILL HAVE A COOLISH FEEL
AFTER THE WARM FEW DAYS PRECEDING THE SHORT TERM. THE COLUMN REMAINS
QUITE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE DYNAMICS TAKING SHAPE ALOFT
WILL BE INCREDIBLY STRONG. THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND BECOMES ONE OF THE STRONGEST VORTICITY
CENTERS I CAN REMEMBER SEEING IN QUITE A WHILE LOCALLY. AHEAD OF IT
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS BUT OVERALL
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THERE ARE BIG
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE HEART OF
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WRF IS
NOTABLY SLOWER AND HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. THE GFS IS USUALLY
TOO FAST TO BRING THE COLD AIR ESP WHEN IT HAS TO NEGOTIATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN SO...FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SHOULD THE MODEL VERIFY. BY 12Z SATURDAY IT HAS ALREADY
SWUNG SOME FRIGHTFULLY STRONG CAA THROUGH THE REGION AND HAS A
POCKET OF 850MB -5C OVER WESTERN ZONES. THE (OLDER 12Z) ECMWF ARGUES
FOR FASTER AS WELL. IN THE END IT WILL LIKELY TAKE BETTER SAMPLING
OF THE MAIN VORT BY UA STATIONS TO RESOLVE THESE DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FIRST TASTE OF WINTER ARRIVES WITH THE MONTH
OF NOVEMBER ON SATURDAY. EXTREME VORT CENTER PASSING BY JUST TO THE
NORTH. SO STRONG IN FACT THAT IT MAY WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NRN ZONES OUT OF AN OTHERWISE DRY COLUMN. MOS NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SEEMINGLY STRUGGLE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IN SHOWING
HIGHS A `MERE` 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO/LOW 60S. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM -2C TO -5C THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY EVEN A WELL MIXED AFTERNOON MAY STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AND IT WILL BE WELL MIXED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. BL
WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WHICH COULD REPRESENT PEAK GUSTS FOR
SOME DOWNRIGHT NASTY WIND CHILLS. THE  MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD ABATES
ON SUNDAY FROM AN ADVECTION STANDPOINT BUT SHALLOWER MIXING DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL YIELD HUGE TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO.
SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST...EVEN THOUGH
RH VALUES MAY NOT. THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKING FOR MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THE
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL THUS BE SLOW, MORE A PROCESS OF SOLAR
HEATING THAN THERMAL ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG/STRATUS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AT THIS POINT. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FROM 12-13Z...OTHERWISE VFR THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT WITH VCSH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
HONE THE TIMING DOWN WITH THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 02Z OR SO. THE BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL BE NARROW...LASTING ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY MORNING THRU FRIDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN FOCUS/PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...AND THE CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A NEW AND COOLER AIR
MASS.

VARIOUS MODELS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT SUPPORT A SW-WSW
WIND DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH SPEEDS AT 10
TO AROUND 15 KT. DURING THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...AND OFFSHORE AFTER MID
NIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER FROM WSW TO W AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...VEERING TO THE NW IMMEDIATELY AFTER FROPA...AND FROM THE
NORTH AS THE CAA OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT THEIR MINIMUM SPEEDS THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASE AFTER FROPA...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO A SOLID 15 TO
POSSIBLY 20 KT BY DAYBREAK THU DUE TO THE CAA SURGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL MAINLY RUN 2 TO 4 FT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 3 TO 6
SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AN
UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS
REMAINING PRESENT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SIT OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WAITING FOR A STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY PROBLEMATIC AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WELL-OFFSHORE BOUNDARY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT A
MAINTAINED WIND SPEED WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT STRONG SYSTEM ACTUALLY CAUSES LOCAL WINDS TO DIMINISH. FLAGS
LIKELY IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER AS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING BY JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SATURDAY. A NEW LOW CROSSES THE REGION ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING THEN
ENSUES WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE. ADVISORY
APPEARS LIKELY AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TOUGH TO RULE OUT. FLAGS
SHOULD CARRY INTO PART OF SUNDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE WANING AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY ACCELERATES WHILE DEEPENING. IT MAY SEND SOME
BACKSWELL TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KILM 290901
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
501 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP COMPLEMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY THEN TURNS
BLUSTERY WITH WINTER-LIKE COLD THAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY. A VERY
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...PREFER THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER/FASTER NAM
OVER THE GFS FOR THE ESE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...CROSSING THE
ILM CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING OFF THE ILM CWA
COASTLINE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES. THE UPPER
TROF NEVER REALLY AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO TAP/ACCESS GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND/OR COVERAGE. THUS...MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL BE WORKED ON AS WELL AS THE AVBL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. IN ADDITION TO NOT GOING ANY HIER
WITH POPS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT IS THE RATHER WEAK DYNAMICS
ALOFT. FRONTAL DYNAMICS ITSELF WITH LIKELY BE THE MAIN PLAYER TO
AID PCPN ACTIVITY. WITH THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE CFP...THIN TO
OPAQUE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPS
FROM REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY ACROSS THE FA ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND THUS
MAY HAVE A SHOT OF BREAKING THEM...

LOCATION         WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON        82 1984
FLORENCE          84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH   83/1991

AFTER THE CFP...LEFTOVER CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THU HOURS WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT PCPN LIKELY ENDING BEFORE
DAYBREAK. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MILDER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHTS LOWS EVENTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE CFP.
THINKING IS THE BEST CAA SURGE TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
DAYLIGHT THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR PUSHING IN RAPIDLY FROM POINTS
NORTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
COASTAL LOCALES MAY SEE SOME MORNING SPRINKLES BUT THATS ABOUT IT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING BACK AND A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT LINE OF VORTICITY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
STILL DIVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
MANAGE SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE BUT IT ALL APPEARS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE LOCALLY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH IS QUITE NEAR CLIMO...BUT WILL HAVE A COOLISH FEEL
AFTER THE WARM FEW DAYS PRECEDING THE SHORT TERM. THE COLUMN REMAINS
QUITE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE DYNAMICS TAKING SHAPE ALOFT
WILL BE INCREDIBLY STRONG. THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND BECOMES ONE OF THE STRONGEST VORTICITY
CENTERS I CAN REMEMBER SEEING IN QUITE A WHILE LOCALLY. AHEAD OF IT
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS BUT OVERALL
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THERE ARE BIG
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE HEART OF
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WRF IS
NOTABLY SLOWER AND HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. THE GFS IS USUALLY
TOO FAST TO BRING THE COLD AIR ESP WHEN IT HAS TO NEGOTIATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN SO...FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SHOULD THE MODEL VERIFY. BY 12Z SATURDAY IT HAS ALREADY
SWUNG SOME FRIGHTFULLY STRONG CAA THROUGH THE REGION AND HAS A
POCKET OF 850MB -5C OVER WESTERN ZONES. THE (OLDER 12Z) ECMWF ARGUES
FOR FASTER AS WELL. IN THE END IT WILL LIKELY TAKE BETTER SAMPLING
OF THE MAIN VORT BY UA STATIONS TO RESOLVE THESE DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FIRST TASTE OF WINTER ARRIVES WITH THE MONTH
OF NOVEMBER ON SATURDAY. EXTREME VORT CENTER PASSING BY JUST TO THE
NORTH. SO STRONG IN FACT THAT IT MAY WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NRN ZONES OUT OF AN OTHERWISE DRY COLUMN. MOS NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SEEMINGLY STRUGGLE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IN SHOWING
HIGHS A `MERE` 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO/LOW 60S. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM -2C TO -5C THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY EVEN A WELL MIXED AFTERNOON MAY STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AND IT WILL BE WELL MIXED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. BL
WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WHICH COULD REPRESENT PEAK GUSTS FOR
SOME DOWNRIGHT NASTY WIND CHILLS. THE  MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD ABATES
ON SUNDAY FROM AN ADVECTION STANDPOINT BUT SHALLOWER MIXING DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL YIELD HUGE TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO.
SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST...EVEN THOUGH
RH VALUES MAY NOT. THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKING FOR MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THE
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL THUS BE SLOW, MORE A PROCESS OF SOLAR
HEATING THAN THERMAL ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR FROM LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR DURING DAYLIGHTS WED HRS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE 06Z
ISSUANCE PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE -SHRA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

ANTICIPATE A LOW STRATUS CLOUD CEILING OVER WIDESPREAD FOG. ACTIVE
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM BUT WILL
ALLOW A LOW STRATUS SCT-BKN DECK WITH BASES AT 5H TO 1K FOOT THRU
14Z. 1-2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND
CLOUDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS AM...INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KTS BY MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN. BKN CU-SC CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING MAY
PRODUCE SHRA ACROSS THE FA AS DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACH THE FA LATE IN THE ISSUANCE PERIOD.
TIMING ISSUES REMAIN AND AS A RESULT WILL ENTERTAIN VICINITY SHRA
FOR NOW AFTER 00Z 10/30. WILL VEER THE WINDS TO WESTERLY THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE 6-12Z THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE COAST. VFR
LATER THU THRU FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN FOCUS/PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...AND THE CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A NEW AND COOLER AIR
MASS.

VARIOUS MODELS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT SUPPORT A SW-WSW
WIND DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH SPEEDS AT 10
TO AROUND 15 KT. DURING THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...AND OFFSHORE AFTER MID
NIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER FROM WSW TO W AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...VEERING TO THE NW IMMEDIATELY AFTER FROPA...AND FROM THE
NORTH AS THE CAA OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT THEIR MINIMUM SPEEDS THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASE AFTER FROPA...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO A SOLID 15 TO
POSSIBLY 20 KT BY DAYBREAK THU DUE TO THE CAA SURGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL MAINLY RUN 2 TO 4 FT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 3 TO 6
SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AN
UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS
REMAINING PRESENT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SIT OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WAITING FOR A STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY PROBLEMATIC AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WELL-OFFSHORE BOUNDARY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT A
MAINTAINED WIND SPEED WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT STRONG SYSTEM ACTUALLY CAUSES LOCAL WINDS TO DIMINISH. FLAGS
LIKELY IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER AS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING BY JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SATURDAY. A NEW LOW CROSSES THE REGION ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING THEN
ENSUES WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE. ADVISORY
APPEARS LIKELY AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TOUGH TO RULE OUT. FLAGS
SHOULD CARRY INTO PART OF SUNDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE WANING AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY ACCELERATES WHILE DEEPENING. IT MAY SEND SOME
BACKSWELL TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 290843
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
443 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP COMPLEMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY THEN TURNS
BLUSTERY WITH WINTER-LIKE COLD THAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY. A VERY
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...PREFER THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER/FASTER NAM
OVER THE GFS FOR THE ESE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...CROSSING THE
ILM CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING OFF THE ILM CWA
COASTLINE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES. THE UPPER
TROF NEVER REALLY AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO TAP/ACCESS GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND/OR COVERAGE. THUS...MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL BE WORKED ON AS WELL AS THE AVBL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. IN ADDITION TO NOT GOING ANY HIER
WITH POPS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT IS THE RATHER WEAK DYNAMICS
ALOFT. FRONTAL DYNAMICS ITSELF WITH LIKELY BE THE MAIN PLAYER TO
AID PCPN ACTIVITY. WITH THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE CFP...THIN TO
OPAQUE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPS
FROM REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY ACROSS THE FA ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND THUS
MAY HAVE A SHOT OF BREAKING THEM...

LOCATION         WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON        82 1984
FLORENCE          84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH   83/1991

AFTER THE CFP...LEFTOVER CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THU HOURS WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT PCPN LIKELY ENDING BEFORE
DAYBREAK. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MILDER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHTS LOWS EVENTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE CFP.
THINKING IS THE BEST CAA SURGE TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
DAYLIGHT THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR PUSHING IN RAPIDLY FROM POINTS
NORTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
COASTAL LOCALES MAY SEE SOME MORNING SPRINKLES BUT THATS ABOUT IT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING BACK AND A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT LINE OF VORTICITY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
STILL DIVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
MANAGE SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE BUT IT ALL APPEARS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE LOCALLY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH IS QUITE NEAR CLIMO...BUT WILL HAVE A COOLISH FEEL
AFTER THE WARM FEW DAYS PRECEDING THE SHORT TERM. THE COLUMN REMAINS
QUITE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE DYNAMICS TAKING SHAPE ALOFT
WILL BE INCREDIBLY STRONG. THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND BECOMES ONE OF THE STRONGEST VORTICITY
CENTERS I CAN REMEMBER SEEING IN QUITE A WHILE LOCALLY. AHEAD OF IT
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS BUT OVERALL
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THERE ARE BIG
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE HEART OF
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WRF IS
NOTABLY SLOWER AND HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. THE GFS IS USUALLY
TOO FAST TO BRING THE COLD AIR ESP WHEN IT HAS TO NEGOTIATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN SO...FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SHOULD THE MODEL VERIFY. BY 12Z SATURDAY IT HAS ALREADY
SWUNG SOME FRIGHTFULLY STRONG CAA THROUGH THE REGION AND HAS A
POCKET OF 850MB -5C OVER WESTERN ZONES. THE (OLDER 12Z) ECMWF ARGUES
FOR FASTER AS WELL. IN THE END IT WILL LIKELY TAKE BETTER SAMPLING
OF THE MAIN VORT BY UA STATIONS TO RESOLVE THESE DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FIRST TASTE OF WINTER ARRIVES WITH THE MONTH
OF NOVEMBER ON SATURDAY. EXTREME VORT CENTER PASSING BY JUST TO THE
NORTH. SO STRONG IN FACT THAT IT MAY WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NRN ZONES OUT OF AN OTHERWISE DRY COLUMN. MOS NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SEEMINGLY STRUGGLE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IN SHOWING
HIGHS A `MERE` 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO/LOW 60S. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM -2C TO -5C THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY EVEN A WELL MIXED AFTERNOON MAY STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AND IT WILL BE WELL MIXED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. BL
WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WHICH COULD REPRESENT PEAK GUSTS FOR
SOME DOWNRIGHT NASTY WIND CHILLS. THE  MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD ABATES
ON SUNDAY FROM AN ADVECTION STANDPOINT BUT SHALLOWER MIXING DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL YIELD HUGE TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO.
SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST...EVEN THOUGH
RH VALUES MAY NOT. THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKING FOR MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THE
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL THUS BE SLOW, MORE A PROCESS OF SOLAR
HEATING THAN THERMAL ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR FROM LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR DURING DAYLIGHTS WED HRS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE 06Z
ISSUANCE PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE -SHRA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

ANTICIPATE A LOW STRATUS CLOUD CEILING OVER WIDESPREAD FOG. ACTIVE
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM BUT WILL
ALLOW A LOW STRATUS SCT-BKN DECK WITH BASES AT 5H TO 1K FOOT THRU
14Z. 1-2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND
CLOUDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS AM...INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KTS BY MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN. BKN CU-SC CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING MAY
PRODUCE SHRA ACROSS THE FA AS DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACH THE FA LATE IN THE ISSUANCE PERIOD.
TIMING ISSUES REMAIN AND AS A RESULT WILL ENTERTAIN VICINITY SHRA
FOR NOW AFTER 00Z 10/30. WILL VEER THE WINDS TO WESTERLY THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE 6-12Z THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE COAST. VFR
LATER THU THRU FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:40 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST THE GRADIENT
WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED. THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2
TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SIT OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WAITING FOR A STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY PROBLEMATIC AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WELL-OFFSHORE BOUNDARY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT A
MAINTAINED WIND SPEED WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT STRONG SYSTEM ACTUALLY CAUSES LOCAL WINDS TO DIMINISH. FLAGS
LIKELY IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER AS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING BY JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SATURDAY. A NEW LOW CROSSES THE REGION ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING THEN
ENSUES WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE. ADVISORY
APPEARS LIKELY AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TOUGH TO RULE OUT. FLAGS
SHOULD CARRY INTO PART OF SUNDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE WANING AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY ACCELERATES WHILE DEEPENING. IT MAY SEND SOME
BACKSWELL TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 290748
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP COMPLEMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY THEN TURNS
BLUSTERY WITH WINTER-LIKE COLD THAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY. A VERY
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:40 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...ENSURING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL WORK TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY AND THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ABOVE 300 MB LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS BUT ANY
THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM DROPPING TO ZERO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILE DATA
SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT IT WILL ALSO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS
DECK...WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR PUSHING IN RAPIDLY FROM POINTS
NORTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
COASTAL LOCALES MAY SEE SOME MORNING SPRINKLES BUT THATS ABOUT IT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING BACK AND A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT LINE OF VORTICITY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
STILL DIVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
MANAGE SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE BUT IT ALL APPEARS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE LOCALLY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH IS QUITE NEAR CLIMO...BUT WILL HAVE A COOLISH FEEL
AFTER THE WARM FEW DAYS PRECEDING THE SHORT TERM. THE COLUMN REMAINS
QUITE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE DYNAMICS TAKING SHAPE ALOFT
WILL BE INCREDIBLY STRONG. THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND BECOMES ONE OF THE STRONGEST VORTICITY
CENTERS I CAN REMEMBER SEEING IN QUITE A WHILE LOCALLY. AHEAD OF IT
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS BUT OVERALL
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THERE ARE BIG
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE HEART OF
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WRF IS
NOTABLY SLOWER AND HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. THE GFS IS USUALLY
TOO FAST TO BRING THE COLD AIR ESP WHEN IT HAS TO NEGOTIATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN SO...FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SHOULD THE MODEL VERIFY. BY 12Z SATURDAY IT HAS ALREADY
SWUNG SOME FRIGHTFULLY STRONG CAA THROUGH THE REGION AND HAS A
POCKET OF 850MB -5C OVER WESTERN ZONES. THE (OLDER 12Z) ECMWF ARGUES
FOR FASTER AS WELL. IN THE END IT WILL LIKELY TAKE BETTER SAMPLING
OF THE MAIN VORT BY UA STATIONS TO RESOLVE THESE DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FIRST TASTE OF WINTER ARRIVES WITH THE MONTH
OF NOVEMBER ON SATURDAY. EXTREME VORT CENTER PASSING BY JUST TO THE
NORTH. SO STRONG IN FACT THAT IT MAY WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NRN ZONES OUT OF AN OTHERWISE DRY COLUMN. MOS NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SEEMINGLY STRUGGLE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IN SHOWING
HIGHS A `MERE` 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO/LOW 60S. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM -2C TO -5C THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY EVEN A WELL MIXED AFTERNOON MAY STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AND IT WILL BE WELL MIXED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. BL
WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WHICH COULD REPRESENT PEAK GUSTS FOR
SOME DOWNRIGHT NASTY WIND CHILLS. THE  MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD ABATES
ON SUNDAY FROM AN ADVECTION STANDPOINT BUT SHALLOWER MIXING DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL YIELD HUGE TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO.
SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST...EVEN THOUGH
RH VALUES MAY NOT. THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKING FOR MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THE
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL THUS BE SLOW, MORE A PROCESS OF SOLAR
HEATING THAN THERMAL ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR FROM LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR DURING DAYLIGHTS WED HRS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE 06Z
ISSUANCE PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE -SHRA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

ANTICIPATE A LOW STRATUS CLOUD CEILING OVER WIDESPREAD FOG. ACTIVE
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM BUT WILL
ALLOW A LOW STRATUS SCT-BKN DECK WITH BASES AT 5H TO 1K FOOT THRU
14Z. 1-2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND
CLOUDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS AM...INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KTS BY MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN. BKN CU-SC CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING MAY
PRODUCE SHRA ACROSS THE FA AS DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACH THE FA LATE IN THE ISSUANCE PERIOD.
TIMING ISSUES REMAIN AND AS A RESULT WILL ENTERTAIN VICINITY SHRA
FOR NOW AFTER 00Z 10/30. WILL VEER THE WINDS TO WESTERLY THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE 6-12Z THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE COAST. VFR
LATER THU THRU FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:40 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST THE GRADIENT
WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED. THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2
TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SIT OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WAITING FOR A STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY PROBLEMATIC AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WELL-OFFSHORE BOUNDARY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT A
MAINTAINED WIND SPEED WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT STRONG SYSTEM ACTUALLY CAUSES LOCAL WINDS TO DIMINISH. FLAGS
LIKELY IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER AS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING BY JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SATURDAY. A NEW LOW CROSSES THE REGION ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING THEN
ENSUES WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE. ADVISORY
APPEARS LIKELY AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TOUGH TO RULE OUT. FLAGS
SHOULD CARRY INTO PART OF SUNDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE WANING AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY ACCELERATES WHILE DEEPENING. IT MAY SEND SOME
BACKSWELL TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 290624
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
224 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHARP COOLING WILL INVADE
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:40 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...ENSURING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL WORK TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY AND THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ABOVE 300 MB LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS BUT ANY
THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM DROPPING TO ZERO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILE DATA
SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT IT WILL ALSO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS
DECK...WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...2 MAIN WEATHER HEADLINES THIS PERIOD...FIRST
A SHOT AT CRACKING A FEW RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

LOCATION         WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON        82 1984
FLORENCE          84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH   83/1991

SECONDLY A SHOT AT MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH MEASURABLE PCPN NOT SEEN SINCE OCTOBER 15TH IN A
BIT OF A DRY STRETCH.

CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER WEDNESDAY
SO SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AID IN NOTABLE TEMPERATURE BOOSTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL RAISE THE
STARTING MIN TEMP POINTS TO BOOT.

WHILE IT APPEARS QPF POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WINDOW OF SPIKED COLUMN MOISTURE
BETWEEN 03Z-09Z/11PM-5AM SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO TRANSIT THE FORECAST ARA WED NIGHT. 10-15 DEGREE COOLER MAX TEMP
VALUES THU COMPARED TO WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH HALLOWEEN WILL HAVE RELATIVELY
COOLER WEATHER...AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IT WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE WINTER. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST ON FRI WITH WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. WINDS WILL
BACK THROUGH THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SKIES SHOULD HOLD OUT MAINTAINING SUNSHINE MOST OF
THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRI WITH
TEMPS JUST DROPPING BELOW 60 FOR TRICK OR TREATING FRI EVENING UNDER
LIGHT NW WINDS.

A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MID TO UPPER
TROUGH ON SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SAT AFTN. H5 HEIGHTS BELOW 550 DEM SAT AFTN WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND MAY WRING OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ONCE THIS
LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND STRONG
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPS REACHING
CLOSER TO 0C BY SUN MORNING. WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON WITH TEMPS NOT ABLE TO RECOVER MUCH ON SAT BEFORE CLOUDS AND
COLDER AIR COMES AND BY SUNDAY CAA WILL BE IN FULL FORCE. TEMPS BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST PLACES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT
WILL DROP BELOW 40 MOST PLACES AND COOL NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO FREEZING EARLY SUN MORNING. BY MON
MORNING MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND EXPECT CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNS ITSELF ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP. MID TO
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THE FROM THE GULF MON INTO TUES WITH H5
HEIGHTS RISING UP TO 585 DEM. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
BACK UP TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY LATE MON INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR FROM LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR DURING DAYLIGHTS WED HRS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE 06Z
ISSUANCE PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE -SHRA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

ANTICIPATE A LOW STRATUS CLOUD CEILING OVER WIDESPREAD FOG. ACTIVE
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM BUT WILL
ALLOW A LOW STRATUS SCT-BKN DECK WITH BASES AT 5H TO 1K FOOT THRU
14Z. 1-2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND
CLOUDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS AM...INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KTS BY MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN. BKN CU-SC CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING MAY
PRODUCE SHRA ACROSS THE FA AS DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACH THE FA LATE IN THE ISSUANCE PERIOD.
TIMING ISSUES REMAIN AND AS A RESULT WILL ENTERTAIN VICINITY SHRA
FOR NOW AFTER 00Z 10/30. WILL VEER THE WINDS TO WESTERLY THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE 6-12Z THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE COAST. VFR
LATER THU THRU FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:40 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST THE GRADIENT
WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED. THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2
TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WED WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
CAUTION STATEMENT OR EVEN A BRIEF ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THURSDAY...BUT IT WOULD BE ONLY FOR 20-25 KT GUSTS FROM THE NORTH
AS SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS IN THE BRISK OFFSHORE WIND
FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM LATE WED NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY NEAR AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT WORKS S AND E
OF OUR WATERS. SEA SPECTRUM TO FEATURE AMBIENT SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND SSW CHOP WED CHANGING TO A STRONGER N CHOP
THU. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FEET...EXCEPT PLENTY 2 FT SE4AS INSHORE WED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS
EARLY FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID TO UPPER LOW. THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BACK FROM N/NW ON FRI REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. BY SATURDAY
THIS DEEP LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW WINDS ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY
AND SAT NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY. THIS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI INTO
EARLY SATURDAY RAPIDLY UP TO 6 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SAT AFTN. MAY
SEE SOME 7 FTERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONG OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER
TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS CAA BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN AND GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY SUN NIGHT SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY OUT
OF THE N-NE 10 TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 290238
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1038 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHARP COOLING WILL INVADE
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:40 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...ENSURING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL WORK TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY AND THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ABOVE 300 MB LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS BUT ANY
THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM DROPPING TO ZERO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILE DATA
SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT IT WILL ALSO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS
DECK...WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...2 MAIN WEATHER HEADLINES THIS PERIOD...FIRST
A SHOT AT CRACKING A FEW RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

LOCATION         WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON        82 1984
FLORENCE          84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH   83/1991

SECONDLY A SHOT AT MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH MEASURABLE PCPN NOT SEEN SINCE OCTOBER 15TH IN A
BIT OF A DRY STRETCH.

CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER WEDNESDAY
SO SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AID IN NOTABLE TEMPERATURE BOOSTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL RAISE THE
STARTING MIN TEMP POINTS TO BOOT.

WHILE IT APPEARS QPF POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WINDOW OF SPIKED COLUMN MOISTURE
BETWEEN 03Z-09Z/11PM-5AM SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO TRANSIT THE FORECAST ARA WED NIGHT. 10-15 DEGREE COOLER MAX TEMP
VALUES THU COMPARED TO WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH HALLOWEEN WILL HAVE RELATIVELY
COOLER WEATHER...AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IT WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE WINTER. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST ON FRI WITH WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. WINDS WILL
BACK THROUGH THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SKIES SHOULD HOLD OUT MAINTAINING SUNSHINE MOST OF
THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRI WITH
TEMPS JUST DROPPING BELOW 60 FOR TRICK OR TREATING FRI EVENING UNDER
LIGHT NW WINDS.

A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MID TO UPPER
TROUGH ON SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SAT AFTN. H5 HEIGHTS BELOW 550 DEM SAT AFTN WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND MAY WRING OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ONCE THIS
LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND STRONG
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPS REACHING
CLOSER TO 0C BY SUN MORNING. WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON WITH TEMPS NOT ABLE TO RECOVER MUCH ON SAT BEFORE CLOUDS AND
COLDER AIR COMES AND BY SUNDAY CAA WILL BE IN FULL FORCE. TEMPS BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST PLACES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT
WILL DROP BELOW 40 MOST PLACES AND COOL NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO FREEZING EARLY SUN MORNING. BY MON
MORNING MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND EXPECT CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNS ITSELF ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP. MID TO
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THE FROM THE GULF MON INTO TUES WITH H5
HEIGHTS RISING UP TO 585 DEM. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
BACK UP TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY LATE MON INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO AREAS OF FOG/LOW CIGS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS AOB 10 KTS PREVAIL THIS
EVENING...WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
JUST TO THE WEST...MOVING EASTWARD. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...ANTICIPATE
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH...COULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATUS VS
FOG AS WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN ELEVATED. GIVEN
LOWERED CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT BOTH FOG/STRATUS IN GOING FORECAST.
AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. VFR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:40 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST THE GRADIENT
WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED. THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2
TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WED WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
CAUTION STATEMENT OR EVEN A BRIEF ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THURSDAY...BUT IT WOULD BE ONLY FOR 20-25 KT GUSTS FROM THE NORTH
AS SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS IN THE BRISK OFFSHORE WIND
FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM LATE WED NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY NEAR AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT WORKS S AND E
OF OUR WATERS. SEA SPECTRUM TO FEATURE AMBIENT SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND SSW CHOP WED CHANGING TO A STRONGER N CHOP
THU. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FEET...EXCEPT PLENTY 2 FT SE4AS INSHORE WED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS
EARLY FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID TO UPPER LOW. THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BACK FROM N/NW ON FRI REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. BY SATURDAY
THIS DEEP LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW WINDS ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY
AND SAT NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY. THIS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI INTO
EARLY SATURDAY RAPIDLY UP TO 6 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SAT AFTN. MAY
SEE SOME 7 FTERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONG OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER
TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS CAA BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN AND GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY SUN NIGHT SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY OUT
OF THE N-NE 10 TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/III/RGZ






000
FXUS62 KILM 282355
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHARP COOLING WILL INVADE
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 8 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...ENSURING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL WORK TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY AND THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ABOVE 300 MB LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS BUT ANY
THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM DROPPING TO ZERO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILE DATA
SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT IT WILL ALSO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS
DECK...WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...2 MAIN WEATHER HEADLINES THIS PERIOD...FIRST
A SHOT AT CRACKING A FEW RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

LOCATION         WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON        82 1984
FLORENCE          84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH   83/1991

SECONDLY A SHOT AT MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH MEASURABLE PCPN NOT SEEN SINCE OCTOBER 15TH IN A
BIT OF A DRY STRETCH.

CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER WEDNESDAY
SO SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AID IN NOTABLE TEMPERATURE BOOSTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL RAISE THE
STARTING MIN TEMP POINTS TO BOOT.

WHILE IT APPEARS QPF POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WINDOW OF SPIKED COLUMN MOISTURE
BETWEEN 03Z-09Z/11PM-5AM SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO TRANSIT THE FORECAST ARA WED NIGHT. 10-15 DEGREE COOLER MAX TEMP
VALUES THU COMPARED TO WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH HALLOWEEN WILL HAVE RELATIVELY
COOLER WEATHER...AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IT WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE WINTER. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST ON FRI WITH WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. WINDS WILL
BACK THROUGH THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SKIES SHOULD HOLD OUT MAINTAINING SUNSHINE MOST OF
THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRI WITH
TEMPS JUST DROPPING BELOW 60 FOR TRICK OR TREATING FRI EVENING UNDER
LIGHT NW WINDS.

A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MID TO UPPER
TROUGH ON SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SAT AFTN. H5 HEIGHTS BELOW 550 DEM SAT AFTN WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND MAY WRING OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ONCE THIS
LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND STRONG
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPS REACHING
CLOSER TO 0C BY SUN MORNING. WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON WITH TEMPS NOT ABLE TO RECOVER MUCH ON SAT BEFORE CLOUDS AND
COLDER AIR COMES AND BY SUNDAY CAA WILL BE IN FULL FORCE. TEMPS BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST PLACES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT
WILL DROP BELOW 40 MOST PLACES AND COOL NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO FREEZING EARLY SUN MORNING. BY MON
MORNING MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND EXPECT CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNS ITSELF ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP. MID TO
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THE FROM THE GULF MON INTO TUES WITH H5
HEIGHTS RISING UP TO 585 DEM. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
BACK UP TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY LATE MON INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO AREAS OF FOG/LOW CIGS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS AOB 10 KTS PREVAIL THIS
EVENING...WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
JUST TO THE WEST...MOVING EASTWARD. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...ANTICIPATE
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH...COULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATUS VS
FOG AS WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN ELEVATED. GIVEN
LOWERED CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT BOTH FOG/STRATUS IN GOING FORECAST.
AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. VFR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT CONTINUE
OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST THE GRADIENT
WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED. THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2
TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WED WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
CAUTION STATEMENT OR EVEN A BRIEF ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THURSDAY...BUT IT WOULD BE ONLY FOR 20-25 KT GUSTS FROM THE NORTH
AS SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS IN THE BRISK OFFSHORE WIND
FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM LATE WED NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY NEAR AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT WORKS S AND E
OF OUR WATERS. SEA SPECTRUM TO FEATURE AMBIENT SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND SSW CHOP WED CHANGING TO A STRONGER N CHOP
THU. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FEET...EXCEPT PLENTY 2 FT SE4AS INSHORE WED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS
EARLY FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID TO UPPER LOW. THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BACK FROM N/NW ON FRI REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. BY SATURDAY
THIS DEEP LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW WINDS ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY
AND SAT NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY. THIS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI INTO
EARLY SATURDAY RAPIDLY UP TO 6 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SAT AFTN. MAY
SEE SOME 7 FTERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONG OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER
TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS CAA BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN AND GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY SUN NIGHT SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY OUT
OF THE N-NE 10 TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/III/RGZ






000
FXUS62 KILM 281914
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
312 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHARP COOLING WILL INVADE
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALOFT
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...ENSURING
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL WORK TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY AND
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH THOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ABOVE 300 MB LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A
FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS BUT ANY THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM DROPPING TO ZERO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILE DATA
SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT IT WILL ALSO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS
DECK...WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...2 MAIN WEATHER HEADLINES THIS PERIOD...FIRST
A SHOT AT CRACKING A FEW RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

LOCATION         WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON        82 1984
FLORENCE          84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH   83/1991

SECONDLY A SHOT AT MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH MEASURABLE PCPN NOT SEEN SINCE OCTOBER 15TH IN A
BIT OF A DRY STRETCH.

CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER WEDNESDAY
SO SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AID IN NOTABLE TEMPERATURE BOOSTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL RAISE THE
STARTING MIN TEMP POINTS TO BOOT.

WHILE IT APPEARS QPF POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WINDOW OF SPIKED COLUMN MOISTURE
BETWEEN 03Z-09Z/11PM-5AM SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO TRANSIT THE FORECAST ARA WED NIGHT. 10-15 DEGREE COOLER MAX TEMP
VALUES THU COMPARED TO WED.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH HALLOWEEN WILL HAVE RELATIVELY
COOLER WEATHER...AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IT WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE WINTER. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST ON FRI WITH WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. WINDS WILL
BACK THROUGH THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SKIES SHOULD HOLD OUT MAINTAINING SUNSHINE MOST OF
THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRI WITH
TEMPS JUST DROPPING BELOW 60 FOR TRICK OR TREATING FRI EVENING UNDER
LIGHT NW WINDS.

A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MID TO UPPER
TROUGH ON SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SAT AFTN. H5 HEIGHTS BELOW 550 DEM SAT AFTN WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND MAY WRING OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ONCE THIS
LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND STRONG
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPS REACHING
CLOSER TO 0C BY SUN MORNING. WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON WITH TEMPS NOT ABLE TO RECOVER MUCH ON SAT BEFORE CLOUDS AND
COLDER AIR COMES AND BY SUNDAY CAA WILL BE IN FULL FORCE. TEMPS BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST PLACES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT
WILL DROP BELOW 40 MOST PLACES AND COOL NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO FREEZING EARLY SUN MORNING. BY MON
MORNING MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND EXPECT CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNS ITSELF ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP. MID TO
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THE FROM THE GULF MON INTO TUES WITH H5
HEIGHTS RISING UP TO 585 DEM. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
BACK UP TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY LATE MON INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RETREATING...BUT STILL GIVING US STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG EXPECTED...HOWEVER
WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN ELEVATED COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...SO IT MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS SITUATION...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE COAST. WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND
14Z...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. VFR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED.
THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WED WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A CAUTION STATEMENT OR EVEN A BRIEF ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THURSDAY...BUT IT WOULD BE ONLY FOR 20-25 KT GUSTS FROM THE NORTH
AS SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS IN THE BRISK OFFSHORE WIND
FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM LATE WED NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY NEAR AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT WORKS S AND E
OF OUR WATERS. SEA SPECTRUM TO FEATURE AMBIENT SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND SSW CHOP WED CHANGING TO A STRONGER N CHOP
THU. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FEET...EXCEPT PLENTY 2 FT SE4AS INSHORE WED.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS
EARLY FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID TO UPPER LOW. THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BACK FROM N/NW ON FRI REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. BY SATURDAY
THIS DEEP LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW WINDS ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY
AND SAT NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY. THIS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI INTO
EARLY SATURDAY RAPIDLY UP TO 6 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SAT AFTN. MAY
SEE SOME 7 FTERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONG OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER
TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS CAA BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN AND GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY SUN NIGHT SEAS SHOULD DROP
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE
N-NE 10 TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/III









000
FXUS62 KILM 281912
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
312 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHARP COOLING WILL INVADE
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALOFT
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...ENSURING
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL WORK TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY AND
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH THOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ABOVE 300 MB LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A
FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS BUT ANY THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM DROPPING TO ZERO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILE DATA
SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT IT WILL ALSO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS
DECK...WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...2 MAIN WEATHER HEADLINES THIS PERIOD...FIRST
A SHOT AT CRACKING A FEW RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

LOCATION         WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON        82 1984
FLORENCE          84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH   83/1991

SECONDLY A SHOT AT MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH MEASURABLE PCPN NOT SEEN SINCE OCTOBER 15TH IN A
BIT OF A DRY STRETCH.

CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER WEDNESDAY
SO SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AID IN NOTABLE TEMPERATURE BOOSTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL RAISE THE
STARTING MIN TEMP POINTS TO BOOT.

WHILE IT APPEARS QPF POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WINDOW OF SPIKED COLUMN MOISTURE
BETWEEN 03Z-09Z/11PM-5AM SHOULD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
TRANSIT THE FORECAST ARA WED NIGHT. 10-15 DEGREE COOLER MAX TEMP
VALUES THU COMPARED TO WED.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH HALLOWEEN WILL HAVE RELATIVELY
COOLER WEATHER...AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IT WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE WINTER. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST ON FRI WITH WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. WINDS WILL
BACK THROUGH THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SKIES SHOULD HOLD OUT MAINTAINING SUNSHINE MOST OF
THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRI WITH
TEMPS JUST DROPPING BELOW 60 FOR TRICK OR TREATING FRI EVENING UNDER
LIGHT NW WINDS.

A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MID TO UPPER
TROUGH ON SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SAT AFTN. H5 HEIGHTS BELOW 550 DEM SAT AFTN WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND MAY WRING OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ONCE THIS
LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND STRONG
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPS REACHING
CLOSER TO 0C BY SUN MORNING. WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON WITH TEMPS NOT ABLE TO RECOVER MUCH ON SAT BEFORE CLOUDS AND
COLDER AIR COMES AND BY SUNDAY CAA WILL BE IN FULL FORCE. TEMPS BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST PLACES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT
WILL DROP BELOW 40 MOST PLACES AND COOL NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO FREEZING EARLY SUN MORNING. BY MON
MORNING MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND EXPECT CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNS ITSELF ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP. MID TO
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THE FROM THE GULF MON INTO TUES WITH H5
HEIGHTS RISING UP TO 585 DEM. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
BACK UP TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY LATE MON INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RETREATING...BUT STILL GIVING US STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG EXPECTED...HOWEVER
WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN ELEVATED COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...SO IT MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS SITUATION...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE COAST. WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND
14Z...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. VFR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED.
THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WED WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A CAUTION STATEMENT OR EVEN A BRIEF ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THURSDAY...BUT IT WOULD BE ONLY FOR 20-25 KT GUSTS FROM THE NORTH
AS SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS IN THE BRISK OFFSHORE WIND
FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM LATE WED NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY NEAR AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT WORKS S AND E
OF OUR WATERS. SEA SPECTRUM TO FEATURE AMBIENT SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND SSW CHOP WED CHANGING TO A STRONGER N CHOP
THU. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FEET...EXCEPT PLENTY 2 FT SE4AS INSHORE WED.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS
EARLY FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID TO UPPER LOW. THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BACK FROM N/NW ON FRI REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. BY SATURDAY
THIS DEEP LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW WINDS ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY
AND SAT NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY. THIS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI INTO
EARLY SATURDAY RAPIDLY UP TO 6 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SAT AFTN. MAY
SEE SOME 7 FTERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONG OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER
TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS CAA BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN AND GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY SUN NIGHT SEAS SHOULD DROP
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE
N-NE 10 TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/III






000
FXUS62 KILM 281802
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
202 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALOFT THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...ENSURING DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE WILL WORK TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY AND THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ABOVE 300 MB LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A FEW WISPS OF
CIRRUS BUT ANY THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM DROPPING TO ZERO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILE DATA
SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT IT WILL ALSO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS
DECK...WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.

COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE
ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A
SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED.

MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RETREATING...BUT STILL GIVING US STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG EXPECTED...HOWEVER
WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN ELEVATED COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...SO IT MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS SITUATION...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE COAST. WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND
14Z...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. VFR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST THE
GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED. THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING.
INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 281404
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1004 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
10 AM EDT. LINGERING LOW STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATING FOG
SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SKIES WILL AGAIN REMAIN
CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING MID LEVELS
VERY DRY. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES REQUIRED FOR MORNING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS
TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING
DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z.

A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY.
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H
THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY
MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE
80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE
LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.

RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014...
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS
TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC
FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE
WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW
DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-
SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.

COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE
ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A
SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED.

MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE MYRTLES AND THE
INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 14Z. ILM IS UP AT
THIS TIME...BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF FOG/STRATUS AS A LITTLE MIXING
BEGINS. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE US SOUTHWEST FLOW
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT BACKING TO SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PROFILES ONCE AGAIN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST DRIFTS FARTHER EAST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT BUT ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST ONCE THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT TODAY. MINIMAL CHANGES TO FORECAST
REQUIRED FOR MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15
KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND
GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT
TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS
WILL RANGE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
PREVAILING. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE
THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 281321
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
921 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG WILL HANG
AROUND IN MOST AREAS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THUS THE DFA HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 10 AM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO ONCE
MIXING DEVELOPS THE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE. SKIES WILL AGAIN
REMAIN CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING MID
LEVELS VERY DRY. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES REQUIRED FOR MORNING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS
TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING
DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z.

A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY.
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H
THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY
MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE
80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE
LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.

RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014...
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS
TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC
FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE
WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW
DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-
SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.

COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE
ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A
SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED.

MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE MYRTLES AND THE
INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 14Z. ILM IS UP AT
THIS TIME...BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF FOG/STRATUS AS A LITTLE MIXING
BEGINS. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE US SOUTHWEST FLOW
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT BACKING TO SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PROFILES ONCE AGAIN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST DRIFTS FARTHER EAST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT BUT ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST ONCE THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT TODAY. MINIMAL CHANGES TO FORECAST
REQUIRED FOR MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15
KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND
GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT
TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS
WILL RANGE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
PREVAILING. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE
THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
     099-109-110.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 281047
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
648 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS
TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING
DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z.

A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY.
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H
THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY
MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE
80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE
LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.

RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014...
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS
TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC
FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE
WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW
DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-
SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.

COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE
ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A
SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED.

MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE MYRTLES AND THE
INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 14Z. ILM IS UP AT
THIS TIME...BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF FOG/STRATUS AS A LITTLE MIXING
BEGINS. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE US SOUTHWEST FLOW
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT BACKING TO SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PROFILES ONCE AGAIN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15
KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND
GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT
TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS
WILL RANGE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
PREVAILING. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE
THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
     099-109-110.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43









000
FXUS62 KILM 281039
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
639 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS
TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING
DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z.

A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY.
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H
THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY
MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE
80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE
LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.

RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014...
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS
TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC
FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE
WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW
DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-
SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.

COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE
ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A
SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED.

MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15
KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND
GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT
TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS
WILL RANGE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
PREVAILING. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE
THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
     099-109-110.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH






000
FXUS62 KILM 280844 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
444 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD...REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS
LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS...AND
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE CURRENT DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE FA CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE DENSE FOG IS QUITE
SHALLOW IN THE VERTICAL AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z.

A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY. WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H THICKNESSES IN
THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR HIGHS TODAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH SOME
INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE 80 DEGREE HIGHS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE
A DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS AND MIXING IN
THE LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY.

FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN INCREASING SW
WINDS TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET
TO SET UP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATE THIS LOW LEVEL JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC UP TO THIS LOW LEVEL JET HEIGHT. AS A RESULT...SFC FOG IF
ANY WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD
DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THUS WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR
SKY CONDITIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG AND
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES
HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-SW WINDS
HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO
DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.

COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT
AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS
A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH
OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15 KT
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
JET AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
1 TO 2 FT TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS.
DOMINANT PERIODS WILL BE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY
GROUND SWELL PREVAILING...AND DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE THIS
AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SW WIND
DRIVEN WAVES.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
     099-109-110.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH






000
FXUS62 KILM 280827
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
427 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD...REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS
...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS...AND
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE CURRENT
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE DENSE FOG
IS QUITE SHALLOW IN THE VERTICAL AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY
1300Z.

A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY. WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H THICKNESSES IN
THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR HIGHS TODAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH SOME
INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE 80 DEGREE HIGHS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS AND MIXING IN THE
LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY.
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTS...ALLOWING AN INCREASING SW WINDS TO SET UP ALOFT.
MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO SET UP ACROSS THE
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS LOW
LEVEL JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE SFC UP TO THIS
LOW LEVEL JET HEIGHT. AS A RESULT...SFC FOG IF ANY WILL BE PATCHY
AND AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS
POSSIBLE AND THUS WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS.
WILL LIKELY SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG AND OVER THE GULF
STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL SHRA REMAINING
OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER END OF THE
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED
SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO
DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME
TIME HOWEVER.

COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT
AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS
A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH
OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH
SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
     099-109-110.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH






000
FXUS62 KILM 280746
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS PARTICULARLY THE 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL VSBY PROJECTION...ALL INDICATE
THE CURRENT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUESDAY HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..........................
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...WHILE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM AND AT THIS POINT
DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A
COOL AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT
THE TIME THE SUN SETS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP.

DESPITE DEWPOINTS PLUNGING INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW LAYER OF FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE HAS HUNG OUT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN HERE AT 3 PM DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 IN THE
GEORGETOWN VICINITY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND
BEACHES. THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD THIS
EVENING IN THE VEERING FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 500-700
FEET THICK ACROSS THE WILMINGTON AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 1200-1500 FT DEPTH ACROSS FLORENCE AND THE PEE
DEE REGION. THIS IS PROBABLY THICK ENOUGH TO DEVELOP FOG AND SOME
LOW STRATUS INLAND LATE TONIGHT. USING THE NAM 975 MB RH GRID AS A
GUIDE...I AM FORECASTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FROM GEORGETOWN
AND MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MARION AND FLORENCE INTO
HARTSVILLE AND BENNETTSVILLE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SIMILAR LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WILMINGTON AND BURGAW THE VERTICAL
EXTENT OF MOISTURE HERE MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY
AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 50-55...COOLEST FROM
LAKE WACCAMAW TO BURGAW...AND WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO
DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME
TIME HOWEVER.

COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT
AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS
A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH
OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH
SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
     099-109-110.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...










000
FXUS62 KILM 280740
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
340 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS PARTICULARLY THE 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL VSBY PROJECTION...ALL INDICATE
THE CURRENT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUESDAY HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..................................
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...WHILE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM AND AT THIS POINT
DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A
COOL AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT
THE TIME THE SUN SETS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP.

DESPITE DEWPOINTS PLUNGING INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW LAYER OF FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE HAS HUNG OUT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN HERE AT 3 PM DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 IN THE
GEORGETOWN VICINITY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND
BEACHES. THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD THIS
EVENING IN THE VEERING FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 500-700
FEET THICK ACROSS THE WILMINGTON AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 1200-1500 FT DEPTH ACROSS FLORENCE AND THE PEE
DEE REGION. THIS IS PROBABLY THICK ENOUGH TO DEVELOP FOG AND SOME
LOW STRATUS INLAND LATE TONIGHT. USING THE NAM 975 MB RH GRID AS A
GUIDE...I AM FORECASTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FROM GEORGETOWN
AND MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MARION AND FLORENCE INTO
HARTSVILLE AND BENNETTSVILLE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SIMILAR LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WILMINGTON AND BURGAW THE VERTICAL
EXTENT OF MOISTURE HERE MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY
AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 50-55...COOLEST FROM
LAKE WACCAMAW TO BURGAW...AND WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO
DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME
TIME HOWEVER.

COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT
AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS
A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH
OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. MORE IMPRESSIVELY
HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE
BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C
DURING EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DROP TEMPS TO NEAR JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE 10+ DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR.
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE
STRETCH...WHEN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40
DEGREES. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60. ON
MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO WHILE
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER...THEY
WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH
SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
     099-109-110.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
MARINE...DCH/REK/JDW










000
FXUS62 KILM 280615
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
215 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COOLING AND A FEW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. A SECONDARY AND STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS PARTICULARLY THE 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL VSBY PROJECTION...ALL INDICATE
THE CURRENT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUESDAY HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...WHILE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM AND AT THIS POINT
DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A
COOL AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT
THE TIME THE SUN SETS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP.

DESPITE DEWPOINTS PLUNGING INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW LAYER OF FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE HAS HUNG OUT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN HERE AT 3 PM DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 IN THE
GEORGETOWN VICINITY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND
BEACHES. THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD THIS
EVENING IN THE VEERING FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 500-700
FEET THICK ACROSS THE WILMINGTON AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 1200-1500 FT DEPTH ACROSS FLORENCE AND THE PEE
DEE REGION. THIS IS PROBABLY THICK ENOUGH TO DEVELOP FOG AND SOME
LOW STRATUS INLAND LATE TONIGHT. USING THE NAM 975 MB RH GRID AS A
GUIDE...I AM FORECASTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FROM GEORGETOWN
AND MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MARION AND FLORENCE INTO
HARTSVILLE AND BENNETTSVILLE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SIMILAR LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WILMINGTON AND BURGAW THE VERTICAL
EXTENT OF MOISTURE HERE MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY
AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 50-55...COOLEST FROM
LAKE WACCAMAW TO BURGAW...AND WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE/STORY THIS PERIOD IS A
A LEGITIMATE SHOT AT BREAKING A FEW RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

LOCATION           TUE OCT 28     WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON          87/1984        82/1984
FLORENCE            86/1991        84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH     83/1991        83/1991

APPEARS BASED ON THE DATA THE BEST SHOT AT MAKING HISTORY WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHICH STILL PLACES US IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS OF RH IMPLY WE MAY SEE
PLENTY SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY TO HELP THE CAUSE WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RIGHT
NOW A CONSENSUS OF MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED S AND E OF THE AREA DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS
ALREADY IN PLACE AT FIRST LIGHT.

HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHC/CHC SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
THURSDAY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED. THURSDAY WILL BE
FAIRLY CLOUDY TO START BUT DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN AND THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD END UP QUITE SEASONABLE. THE FRONT WILL LINGER
OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS BUT
IT APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BRING MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
ANOTHER SEASONABLE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ON TAP. THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE COLD ADVECTION
INTO THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST. SATURDAY STILL LIKELY
OFFERS A BREEZY AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO EXCEED
60...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ENDS UP RIGHT
OVERHEAD AND THERE MAY BE A N TO S GRADIENT IN HIGHS. THIS THERMAL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN THAT
RADIATION COOLING IS FAVORED SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ALSO THAT THERE
MAY BE SOME RECOVERY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM....WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH
SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...S-SW WINDS THIS PERIOD...AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE FIELD SURROUNDING THIS
FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONGLY CONTRASTED THUS NO ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH
PASSAGE. WE MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20 KT HOWEVER AND SEAS UP TO 4 FEET
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AN ADVISORY HOWEVER MAY
BE NEEDED THU. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE 1-1.5 FT SE WAVES
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND S WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 3-5 SECONDS TIED IN
WITH LOCAL WINDS. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT TRAVELS THROUGH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS TAKE OVER ON
THURSDAY. THE NORMAL COLD SURGE-INDUCED INCREASE IN WINDS IS
EXPECTED BUT ITS ONSET WILL BE QUITE GRADUAL AT FIRST. THIS WILL
BE MORE REALIZED HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE GRADIENT INCREASES LOCALLY.
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AN EVEN
FURTHER INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. WNA GUIDANCE APPEARS
QUITE UNDERDONE ON THE RESULTING SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEEMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
     099-109-110.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH






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