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000
FXUS62 KILM 290847
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
447 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. VERY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE COOLER BUT
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER OCCURS ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY BRINGING SEVERAL DAYS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...BY
DAYBREAK...THE SFC LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE ATL WATERS OFF
THE OUTER BANKS. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HAVE DROPPED
SOUTHWARD...ABOUT HALFWAY THRU THE ILM CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FURTHER DROP SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS
MORNING. NOT MUCH OF A SFC PG AFTER ITS PASSAGE WITH THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN YIELDING A NW DIRECTION INITIALLY THEN VEERING TO
THE N OR NE THIS AFTN. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...FROM SFC TO
850MB...NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT THIS AFTN. THIS
WILL ENABLE BOTH THE FORMATION OF THE MESOSCALE SEA BREEZE DURING
THE MIDDAY HRS...AND ALSO ALLOW ITS PROGRESSION INLAND THIS AFTN
THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AFTN TEMPS AND LOCAL
SSTS WILL RUN 15+ DEGREES FURTHER FUELING ITS PUSH INLAND. OTHER
THAN ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...THE FA TODAY WILL BE PCPN-FREE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT THIS MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES W TO NW DUE
TO SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE RIDGING ALOFT AFFECTING THE SE STATES.
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
TO OCCUR THIS AFTN...WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PREVENTING ANY FURTHER
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REACH
THE ILM CWA BY SAT DAYBREAK... WHICH WILL ALLOW CI/CS TO PARTIALLY
MOVE OVERHEAD VIA VARIOUS MODEL RH TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS.

TODAYS MAX TEMPS WILL EXPERIENCE SOME HELP FROM A DOWNSLOPE
TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND FIELD SFC THRU ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN THIS AFTN AND EVENING WILL YIELD A VEERING WIND TO
THE N OR NE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH SPEEDS 10 MPH OR
LESS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL NOT REMAIN PINNED DUE TO WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISHING. LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS...WITH LOWER 80S
OCCURRING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST PRIOR TO THE SEA BREEZE.
WIDESPREAD 60S FOR TONIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTS EARLY SAT...WITH WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS BECOMING SW-
WSW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL ENABLE
MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FA BOTH IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
AT THE SFC...RIDGING WILL TEMPORARILY PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE
STATES ACROSS THE FA EARLY SAT. ITS RIDGE AXIS BY SAT EVENING WILL
EXTEND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS FROM ITS CENTER WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED
OFF THE COAST FROM THE NE STATES. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO RETURN NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE FA SAT NIGHT TO NORTH OF
THE FA DURING SUNDAY. MODELS THERE-AFTER ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT IN
HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND DEEP THE MOISTURE BECOMES ACROSS THE FA.
EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS OR VORTS WILL SPORADICALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FA SUN THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEIR DYNAMICS AND AN UNSTABLE ATM WILL YIELD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM LATE SUN MORNING THRU DAYBREAK MON. AM
CONCERNED THAT POPS EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS ARE RUNNING TOO HIGH
ACROSS THE ILM CWA. HAVE TWEAKED THEM LOWER TO 50 PERCENT OR
LESS...AND KEPT THE HIER POPS NORTH OF THE ILM CWA. AS FOR
TEMPS...STAYED ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO
LOWER POPS AND LESS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ON SAT. THE ONSHORE AND
VEERING WINDS THIS PERIOD...NE-E SAT VEERING TO SE-S SUN...WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPS IN CHECK ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MON INTO TUES. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST
AIR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHWRS/TSTMS ON MONDAY. A
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN MON NIGHT PUSHING THIS FRONT SOUTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE ECMWF IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND DOES NOT PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH...BUT INSTEAD IT LINGERS OVER NC/SC AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG IT PRODUCING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS
KEEPS THE FRONT WELL SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BRINGING CLOUDS AND PCP BACK IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUES NIGHT INTO WED. THEREFORE GFS MAINTAINS A DRIER AIR MASS
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUES WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS WETTER WEATHER FOR TUES. WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
LOWER END POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT.

BY WED A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO REDUCED VSBY FROM FOG
THRU 13Z...ESPECIALLY THE TERMINALS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

SFC LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NC ATTM...WILL ACCELERATE TO OFF THE
OUTER BANKS BY DAYBREAK. THE CURRENT SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS AS IT PROGRESSES ESE TOWARD AND
OFF THE NC COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FOR THE FLO
AND LBT TERMINALS...AND ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA THIS MORNING...AND IN EARNST
THRUOUT THE DAY TODAY. ANY CEILINGS OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HRS WILL SCOUR OUT QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK. AFTER THE CFP...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS THIS MORNING. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXING GRADIENT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT TO
YIELD A VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 5 KT AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE...WINDS BECOMING 140-170 AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL TERMS...THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS WINDS SFC-850MB DROPS TO
LESS THAN 15 KT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE DAYS
INSOLATION COULD PRODUCE FEW/SCT CU...OTHERWISE SKC TO PREVAIL
INTO THRU THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE CU DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS AND
SOUTH OF THE ILM WATERS BEFORE STALLING THIS MORNING.
INITIALLY...WINDS TO BECOME W TO NW 10 KT THIS MORNING. THE WEAK
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED SFC PG...WILL RESULT IN WINDS
FURTHER VEERING TO THE N TO NE AT 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTN. FOR
TONIGHT...A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION CAN BE EXPECTED HOWEVER WILL
TRY TO IDENTIFY A DOMINATING DIRECTION. THE RELAXED GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN 10 KT OR LESS FOR SPEEDS. OTHER THEN ISOLATED -SHRA
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN PCPN-FREE THRU
TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BASICALLY SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT
TODAY...DROPPING TO 2 FT ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS. WIND WAVES AT 4
TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM THIS
MORNING. A 1 TO 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS
WILL THEN BECOME DOMINANT PLAYER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...SFC RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NE STATES...WILL PARTIALLY AFFECT THE ILM NC WATERS
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF NE-E 15 KT MINI SURGE ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT THRU SUN
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE E-SE THRUOUT SAT NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY SUN...RESULTING IN
WINDS FURTHER VEERING TO THE S TO SW SUN THRU SUN NIGHT. THE SFC
PG WILL TIGHTEN-SOME AFTER THE WFP...RESULTING WITH 10 TO 15 KT
SPEEDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SUN NIGHT. FOR SAT...SIGNIFICANT
SEAS AT 2 TO 3 FT WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 3 TO
5 SECONDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND AN
EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS ELSEWHERE. WIND
DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECONDS WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN
NIGHT...AND BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT BY DAYBREAK MON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
SHOULD DRAG THIS COLD FRONT INTO THE WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT THROUGH TUES AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THIS FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUES
POTENTIALLY KEEPING A MORE VARIABLE FLOW BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS ON TUES. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4
FT WILL REACH UP TO 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS MON AFTN AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN SLOWLY IN NORTHERLY FLOW
HEADING INTO TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 290522
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
122 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REAPPEAR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A NEW BATCH OF
CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE SEABREEZE AND
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONVERGED. THESE ARE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FORECASTING TO BRUSH
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVE AND
OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD END THE RISK FOR CONVECTION. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRI MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...FROM W TO E.

WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND FOR THE
NORTHERN PEE DEE THROUGH NORTHERN GRAND STRAND COMMUNITIES OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL LOWER
POPS BELOW THRESHOLD...FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY FOG AS WINDS EVEN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN DID FALL TODAY WILL BE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90
DEGREES IN FLORENCE! THE SEABREEZE WILL BE DELAYED BY THE OFFSHORE
WIND AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BEACHES TO WARM TO 80 DEGREES OR
BETTER BEFORE THE SEABREEZE FINALLY FORMS AROUND 2-3 PM.

WINDS WILL BE QUICK TO VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEHIND
THIS FRONT DOES NOT BUILD APPRECIABLY SOUTHWARD. THIS VEERING LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO GRADUALLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. IT`S WORTH NOTING THE
12Z NAM IS MUCH MORE MOIST (AND CLOUDIER) AND THEREFORE MUCH COOLER
WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS. GIVEN THE COOL
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND PREDICTED ON BOTH MODELS THE 12Z GFS HIGHS LOOK
TOO WARM REGARDLESS OF WHAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TURNS OUT TO BE.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE CAROLINAS BY
SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THIS COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-95...PERHAPS BECOMING
A BIT MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME
SEMBLANCE OF POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WPC CONTINUES
TO PREFER A SOLUTION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLES MIXED IN. THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER.

A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GIVE SURFACE FEATURES MORE
PUSH. THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR SUNDAY WITH AN INITIAL WAVE AND TUESDAY
WHEN A SECOND WAVE MOVES BY. CERTAINLY NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED BUT WPC QPF FOR DAYS 4-7 ARE NEAR TWO INCHES.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWN A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE BUT STILL OVERALL AVERAGES ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO REDUCED VSBY FROM FOG
THRU 13Z...ESPECIALLY THE TERMINALS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

SFC LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NC ATTM...WILL ACCELERATE TO OFF THE
OUTER BANKS BY DAYBREAK. THE CURRENT SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS AS IT PROGRESSES ESE TOWARD AND
OFF THE NC COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FOR THE FLO
AND LBT TERMINALS...AND ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA THIS MORNING...AND IN EARNST
THRUOUT THE DAY TODAY. ANY CEILINGS OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HRS WILL SCOUR OUT QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK. AFTER THE CFP...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS THIS MORNING. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXING GRADIENT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT TO
YIELD A VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 5 KT AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE...WINDS BECOMING 140-170 AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL TERMS...THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS WINDS SFC-850MB DROPS TO
LESS THAN 15 KT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE DAYS
INSOLATION COULD PRODUCE FEW/SCT CU...OTHERWISE SKC TO PREVAIL
INTO THRU THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE CU DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRI MORNING. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO WSW NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN NW FRI MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL DECREASE TO 10 KT NEAR DAYBREAK.
STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR CONVECTION. SEAS WILL BE 3
FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. INTENSE SOLAR HEATING INLAND
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WITH NEARSHORE WINDS
TURNING ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT DOESN`T DIG SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS...ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS.
BY MONDAY A FRONT MOVING CLOSER INCREASES THE GRADIENT AND BACKS
THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST A BIT. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.
THE FRONT EASES ACROSS EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ESSENTIALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. THERE COULD
BE A FEW FIVE FOOTERS MIXED IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 290522
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
122 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REAPPEAR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A NEW BATCH OF
CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE SEABREEZE AND
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONVERGED. THESE ARE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FORECASTING TO BRUSH
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVE AND
OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD END THE RISK FOR CONVECTION. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRI MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...FROM W TO E.

WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND FOR THE
NORTHERN PEE DEE THROUGH NORTHERN GRAND STRAND COMMUNITIES OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL LOWER
POPS BELOW THRESHOLD...FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY FOG AS WINDS EVEN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN DID FALL TODAY WILL BE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90
DEGREES IN FLORENCE! THE SEABREEZE WILL BE DELAYED BY THE OFFSHORE
WIND AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BEACHES TO WARM TO 80 DEGREES OR
BETTER BEFORE THE SEABREEZE FINALLY FORMS AROUND 2-3 PM.

WINDS WILL BE QUICK TO VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEHIND
THIS FRONT DOES NOT BUILD APPRECIABLY SOUTHWARD. THIS VEERING LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO GRADUALLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. IT`S WORTH NOTING THE
12Z NAM IS MUCH MORE MOIST (AND CLOUDIER) AND THEREFORE MUCH COOLER
WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS. GIVEN THE COOL
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND PREDICTED ON BOTH MODELS THE 12Z GFS HIGHS LOOK
TOO WARM REGARDLESS OF WHAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TURNS OUT TO BE.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE CAROLINAS BY
SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THIS COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-95...PERHAPS BECOMING
A BIT MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME
SEMBLANCE OF POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WPC CONTINUES
TO PREFER A SOLUTION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLES MIXED IN. THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER.

A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GIVE SURFACE FEATURES MORE
PUSH. THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR SUNDAY WITH AN INITIAL WAVE AND TUESDAY
WHEN A SECOND WAVE MOVES BY. CERTAINLY NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED BUT WPC QPF FOR DAYS 4-7 ARE NEAR TWO INCHES.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWN A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE BUT STILL OVERALL AVERAGES ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO REDUCED VSBY FROM FOG
THRU 13Z...ESPECIALLY THE TERMINALS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

SFC LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NC ATTM...WILL ACCELERATE TO OFF THE
OUTER BANKS BY DAYBREAK. THE CURRENT SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS AS IT PROGRESSES ESE TOWARD AND
OFF THE NC COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FOR THE FLO
AND LBT TERMINALS...AND ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA THIS MORNING...AND IN EARNST
THRUOUT THE DAY TODAY. ANY CEILINGS OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HRS WILL SCOUR OUT QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK. AFTER THE CFP...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS THIS MORNING. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXING GRADIENT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT TO
YIELD A VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 5 KT AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE...WINDS BECOMING 140-170 AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL TERMS...THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS WINDS SFC-850MB DROPS TO
LESS THAN 15 KT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE DAYS
INSOLATION COULD PRODUCE FEW/SCT CU...OTHERWISE SKC TO PREVAIL
INTO THRU THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE CU DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRI MORNING. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO WSW NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN NW FRI MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL DECREASE TO 10 KT NEAR DAYBREAK.
STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR CONVECTION. SEAS WILL BE 3
FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. INTENSE SOLAR HEATING INLAND
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WITH NEARSHORE WINDS
TURNING ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT DOESN`T DIG SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS...ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS.
BY MONDAY A FRONT MOVING CLOSER INCREASES THE GRADIENT AND BACKS
THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST A BIT. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.
THE FRONT EASES ACROSS EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ESSENTIALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. THERE COULD
BE A FEW FIVE FOOTERS MIXED IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 290148
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REAPPEAR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A NEW BATCH OF
CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE SEABREEZE AND
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONVERGED. THESE ARE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FORECASTING TO BRUSH
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVE AND
OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD END THE RISK FOR CONVECTION. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRI MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...FROM W TO E.

WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND FOR THE
NORTHERN PEE DEE THROUGH NORTHERN GRAND STRAND COMMUNITIES OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL LOWER
POPS BELOW THRESHOLD...FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY FOG AS WINDS EVEN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN DID FALL TODAY WILL BE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90
DEGREES IN FLORENCE! THE SEABREEZE WILL BE DELAYED BY THE OFFSHORE
WIND AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BEACHES TO WARM TO 80 DEGREES OR
BETTER BEFORE THE SEABREEZE FINALLY FORMS AROUND 2-3 PM.

WINDS WILL BE QUICK TO VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEHIND
THIS FRONT DOES NOT BUILD APPRECIABLY SOUTHWARD. THIS VEERING LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO GRADUALLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. IT`S WORTH NOTING THE
12Z NAM IS MUCH MORE MOIST (AND CLOUDIER) AND THEREFORE MUCH COOLER
WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS. GIVEN THE COOL
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND PREDICTED ON BOTH MODELS THE 12Z GFS HIGHS LOOK
TOO WARM REGARDLESS OF WHAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TURNS OUT TO BE.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE CAROLINAS BY
SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THIS COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-95...PERHAPS BECOMING
A BIT MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME
SEMBLANCE OF POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WPC CONTINUES
TO PREFER A SOLUTION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLES MIXED IN. THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER.

A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GIVE SURFACE FEATURES MORE
PUSH. THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR SUNDAY WITH AN INITIAL WAVE AND TUESDAY
WHEN A SECOND WAVE MOVES BY. CERTAINLY NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED BUT WPC QPF FOR DAYS 4-7 ARE NEAR TWO INCHES.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWN A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE BUT STILL OVERALL AVERAGES ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...COULD GET A LITTLE INTERESTING OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR
MODEL CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A MCS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA AFTER 03Z. IT EVEN HAS EXPANDED A BIT TO
INCLUDE LBT. WILL INTRODUCE THUNDER AT LBT AND ILM AFTER 04Z. THE
MODEL DOES WEAKEN IT AS IT REACHES THE COAST...HOWEVER THESE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOVING SYSTEMS SEEM TO HOLD TOGETHER
LONGER...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT GUSTY
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE MCS. AFTER PASSAGE...LOOK FOR MAINLY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH PERHAPS SOME FRACTUS. AFTER DAYBREAK WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY NORTHWEST...BECOMING VARIABLE BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRI MORNING. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO WSW NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN NW FRI MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL DECREASE TO 10 KT NEAR DAYBREAK.
STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR CONVECTION. SEAS WILL BE 3
FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. INTENSE SOLAR HEATING INLAND
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WITH NEARSHORE WINDS
TURNING ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT DOESN`T DIG SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS...ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS.
BY MONDAY A FRONT MOVING CLOSER INCREASES THE GRADIENT AND BACKS
THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST A BIT. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.
THE FRONT EASES ACROSS EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ESSENTIALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. THERE COULD
BE A FEW FIVE FOOTERS MIXED IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 282236
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
635 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REAPPEAR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND POINTS
SOUTH WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGETOWN COUNTY.
ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE N OF THE
AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ONGOING CONVECTION.

A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING
FROM NEAR DANVILLE VA TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH CAROLINA NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS MOVING
EASTWARD AND MAY LINK UP WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. MODELS PAINT A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES...BUT IT APPEARS
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING ESE WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...FOLLOWING
THE FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FORECAST AREA BEING
BRUSHED BY CONVECTION TO THE N LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS WILL HOLD ONTO POPS WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT KEEP THE POPS
LOW END FOR NOW GIVEN THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE HAD SUFFICIENT TIME
TO STABILIZE BY THE TIME THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ROLLS THIS FAR S
AND E. STABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN ADVECTING SOUTHWARD AS THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90
DEGREES IN FLORENCE! THE SEABREEZE WILL BE DELAYED BY THE OFFSHORE
WIND AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BEACHES TO WARM TO 80 DEGREES OR
BETTER BEFORE THE SEABREEZE FINALLY FORMS AROUND 2-3 PM.

WINDS WILL BE QUICK TO VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEHIND
THIS FRONT DOES NOT BUILD APPRECIABLY SOUTHWARD. THIS VEERING LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO GRADUALLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. IT`S WORTH NOTING THE
12Z NAM IS MUCH MORE MOIST (AND CLOUDIER) AND THEREFORE MUCH COOLER
WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS. GIVEN THE COOL
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND PREDICTED ON BOTH MODELS THE 12Z GFS HIGHS LOOK
TOO WARM REGARDLESS OF WHAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TURNS OUT TO BE.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE CAROLINAS BY
SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THIS COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-95...PERHAPS BECOMING
A BIT MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME
SEMBLANCE OF POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WPC CONTINUES
TO PREFER A SOLUTION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLES MIXED IN. THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER.

A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GIVE SURFACE FEATURES MORE
PUSH. THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR SUNDAY WITH AN INITIAL WAVE AND TUESDAY
WHEN A SECOND WAVE MOVES BY. CERTAINLY NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED BUT WPC QPF FOR DAYS 4-7 ARE NEAR TWO INCHES.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWN A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE BUT STILL OVERALL AVERAGES ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...COULD GET A LITTLE INTERESTING OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL
CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A MCS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CWA AFTER 03Z. IT EVEN HAS EXPANDED A BIT TO INCLUDE LBT. WILL INTRODUCE
THUNDER AT LBT AND ILM AFTER 04Z. THE MODEL DOES WEAKEN IT AS IT REACHES
THE COAST...HOWEVER THESE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOVING SYSTEMS SEEM
TO HOLD TOGETHER LONGER...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE MCS. AFTER PASSAGE...LOOK
FOR MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS WITH PERHAPS SOME FRACTUS. AFTER DAYBREAK
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY NORTHWEST...BECOMING VARIABLE BY
MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...A FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL GET A KICK SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT...PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO
WSW LATER THIS EVE AND THEN TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH LATE EVE AND THEN DECREASING TO
10 KT OR LESS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. INTENSE SOLAR HEATING INLAND
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WITH NEARSHORE WINDS
TURNING ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT DOESN`T DIG SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS...ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS.
BY MONDAY A FRONT MOVING CLOSER INCREASES THE GRADIENT AND BACKS
THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST A BIT. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.
THE FRONT EASES ACROSS EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ESSENTIALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. THERE COULD
BE A FEW FIVE FOOTERS MIXED IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43





000
FXUS62 KILM 282224
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
624 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REAPPEAR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND POINTS
SOUTH WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGETOWN COUNTY.
ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE N OF THE
AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ONGOING CONVECTION.

A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING
FROM NEAR DANVILLE VA TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH CAROLINA NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS MOVING
EASTWARD AND MAY LINK UP WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. MODELS PAINT A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES...BUT IT APPEARS
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING ESE WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...FOLLOWING
THE FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FORECAST AREA BEING
BRUSHED BY CONVECTION TO THE N LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS WILL HOLD ONTO POPS WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT KEEP THE POPS
LOW END FOR NOW GIVEN THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE HAD SUFFICIENT TIME
TO STABILIZE BY THE TIME THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ROLLS THIS FAR S
AND E. STABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN ADVECTING SOUTHWARD AS THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90
DEGREES IN FLORENCE! THE SEABREEZE WILL BE DELAYED BY THE OFFSHORE
WIND AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BEACHES TO WARM TO 80 DEGREES OR
BETTER BEFORE THE SEABREEZE FINALLY FORMS AROUND 2-3 PM.

WINDS WILL BE QUICK TO VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEHIND
THIS FRONT DOES NOT BUILD APPRECIABLY SOUTHWARD. THIS VEERING LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO GRADUALLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. IT`S WORTH NOTING THE
12Z NAM IS MUCH MORE MOIST (AND CLOUDIER) AND THEREFORE MUCH COOLER
WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS. GIVEN THE COOL
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND PREDICTED ON BOTH MODELS THE 12Z GFS HIGHS LOOK
TOO WARM REGARDLESS OF WHAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TURNS OUT TO BE.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE CAROLINAS BY
SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THIS COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-95...PERHAPS BECOMING
A BIT MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME
SEMBLANCE OF POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WPC CONTINUES
TO PREFER A SOLUTION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLES MIXED IN. THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER.

A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GIVE SURFACE FEATURES MORE
PUSH. THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR SUNDAY WITH AN INITIAL WAVE AND TUESDAY
WHEN A SECOND WAVE MOVES BY. CERTAINLY NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED BUT WPC QPF FOR DAYS 4-7 ARE NEAR TWO INCHES.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWN A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE BUT STILL OVERALL AVERAGES ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...AREA OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING AFFECTED ALL THE
TERMINALS EXCEPT LBT...BUT THIS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE LEAVING DRY
WEATHER WITH CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
TSTMS HAS DECREASED THIS AFTN/EVE...AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY TONED
DOWN POTENTIAL IN CURRENT TAF SET...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTM
AT LBT/FLO AS SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS INLAND. HAVE INDICATED
TEMPO MVFR...BUT BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE HANDLED WITH SHORT AMDS IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...
WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN VARIABLE WILL RETURN TO THE SW WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KT AND GUSTS 15-20 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING.

DIURNAL TSTMS AND CLOUD COVER WILL WANE AFTER DARK...BUT AS THE COLD
FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH...AN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DROP SE
TOWARDS LBT/ILM. ATTM EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN N/NE OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH AT ILM ONLY WHICH WILL BE
CLOSEST TO THE EXPECTED CONVECTION. OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS
POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DESPITE
FAVORABLE NEAR-SURFACE HYDROLAPSE RATES...BUT HAVE ADDED MVFR INLAND
ALONG WITH SOME STRATUS. AT THE COAST FOG CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER.

COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW AND A RAPID EROSION OF ANY FOG/CLOUD COVER IN THE
MORNING. VFR WITH NW WINDS AND ONLY A FEW SCATTERED CU IS FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...A FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL GET A KICK SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT...PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO
WSW LATER THIS EVE AND THEN TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH LATE EVE AND THEN DECREASING TO
10 KT OR LESS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. INTENSE SOLAR HEATING INLAND
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WITH NEARSHORE WINDS
TURNING ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT DOESN`T DIG SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS...ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS.
BY MONDAY A FRONT MOVING CLOSER INCREASES THE GRADIENT AND BACKS
THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST A BIT. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.
THE FRONT EASES ACROSS EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ESSENTIALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. THERE COULD
BE A FEW FIVE FOOTERS MIXED IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 281913
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
313 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONT. A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REAPPEAR LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MORNING`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE NOW WELL OFFSHORE. NEW ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE PEE DEE REGION MAINLY DUE TO
SUNSHINE PRODUCING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE UNCAPPED
INSTABILITY INLAND. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED QUITE WEAK
SO FAR...PROBABLY OWING TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR THAT HAS ADVECTED IN
AS LOW AS 7000 FEET AGL. THROUGH SUNSET THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
WIDELY SCATTERED.

A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING
FROM NEAR DANVILLE VA TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTH CAROLINA NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS MOVING EASTWARD AND MAY
LINK UP WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS PAINT
A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES...BUT IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY MAY FORM A
SMALL MCS BETWEEN 5-7 PM...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MID-
LEVEL WIND AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

DOES THIS MCS BECOME A BIG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO MAKE A BIG RIGHT TURN
AND FOLLOW THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS CONTOURS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AS SOME SYSTEMS DO? WHILE SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RES
MODELS SUGGESTED THIS...IT NOW APPEARS THIS POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
DOESN`T MEAN DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST...AND IN FACT MOST MODELS DO
SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MY FORECAST
POPS RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER TO ABOUT 50
PERCENT FROM ELIZABETHTOWN TO BURGAW.

AFTER MIDNIGHT DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT SOUTHWARD AS THE SURFACE
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST BY
SUNRISE WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90
DEGREES IN FLORENCE! THE SEABREEZE WILL BE DELAYED BY THE OFFSHORE
WIND AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BEACHES TO WARM TO 80 DEGREES OR
BETTER BEFORE THE SEABREEZE FINALLY FORMS AROUND 2-3 PM.

WINDS WILL BE QUICK TO VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEHIND
THIS FRONT DOES NOT BUILD APPRECIABLY SOUTHWARD. THIS VEERING LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO GRADUALLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. IT`S WORTH NOTING THE
12Z NAM IS MUCH MORE MOIST (AND CLOUDIER) AND THEREFORE MUCH COOLER
WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS. GIVEN THE COOL
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND PREDICTED ON BOTH MODELS THE 12Z GFS HIGHS LOOK
TOO WARM REGARDLESS OF WHAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TURNS OUT TO BE.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE CAROLINAS BY
SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THIS COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-95...PERHAPS BECOMING
A BIT MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME
SEMBLANCE OF POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WPC CONTINUES
TO PREFER A SOLUTION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLES MIXED IN. THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER.

A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GIVE SURFACE FEATURES MORE
PUSH. THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR SUNDAY WITH AN INITIAL WAVE AND TUESDAY
WHEN A SECOND WAVE MOVES BY. CERTAINLY NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED BUT WPC QPF FOR DAYS 4-7 ARE NEAR TWO INCHES.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWN A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE BUT STILL OVERALL AVERAGES ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...AREA OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING AFFECTED ALL THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT LBT...BUT THIS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE LEAVING DRY WEATHER WITH
CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TSTMS HAS
DECREASED THIS AFTN/EVE...AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN
POTENTIAL IN CURRENT TAF SET...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTM AT
LBT/FLO AS SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS INLAND. HAVE INDICATED
TEMPO MVFR...BUT BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE HANDLED WITH SHORT AMDS IF NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN VARIABLE WILL RETURN TO THE SW
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTS 15-20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
EVENING.

DIURNAL TSTMS AND CLOUD COVER WILL WANE AFTER DARK...BUT AS THE COLD
FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH...AN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DROP SE
TOWARDS LBT/ILM. ATTM EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN N/NE OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH AT ILM ONLY WHICH WILL BE
CLOSEST TO THE EXPECTED CONVECTION. OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS
POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DESPITE
FAVORABLE NEAR-SURFACE HYDROLAPSE RATES...BUT HAVE ADDED MVFR INLAND
ALONG WITH SOME STRATUS. AT THE COAST FOG CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER.

COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW AND A RAPID EROSION OF ANY FOG/CLOUD COVER IN THE
MORNING. VFR WITH NW WINDS AND ONLY A FEW SCATTERED CU IS FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...A FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL GET A KICK SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE DELAYED THE
HEATING THAT WOULD HAVE OCCURRED AND THIS HAS LED TO LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS THAN WAS INITIALLY EXPECTED. ENOUGH SUN SHOULD OCCUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON TO GET WINDS UP TO SSW 15 KNOTS...WITH SW 10-15 KT
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

THE BEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
RALEIGH AND GREENSBORO MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. WHILE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN UP TOWARD THE
CRYSTAL COAST...THERE`S A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
NEAR CAPE FEAR BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH LESSER CHANCES
SOUTHWARD.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WILL USHER IN LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...INTENSE SOLAR HEATING
INLAND SHOULD HELP DEVELOP AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WITH NEARSHORE
WINDS TURNING ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT DOESN`T DIG SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS...ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE
SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. BY
MONDAY A FRONT MOVING CLOSER INCREASES THE GRADIENT AND BACKS THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST A BIT. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. THE
FRONT EASES ACROSS EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ESSENTIALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. THERE COULD
BE A FEW FIVE FOOTERS MIXED IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 281913
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
313 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONT. A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REAPPEAR LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MORNING`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE NOW WELL OFFSHORE. NEW ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE PEE DEE REGION MAINLY DUE TO
SUNSHINE PRODUCING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE UNCAPPED
INSTABILITY INLAND. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED QUITE WEAK
SO FAR...PROBABLY OWING TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR THAT HAS ADVECTED IN
AS LOW AS 7000 FEET AGL. THROUGH SUNSET THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
WIDELY SCATTERED.

A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING
FROM NEAR DANVILLE VA TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTH CAROLINA NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS MOVING EASTWARD AND MAY
LINK UP WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS PAINT
A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES...BUT IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY MAY FORM A
SMALL MCS BETWEEN 5-7 PM...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MID-
LEVEL WIND AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

DOES THIS MCS BECOME A BIG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO MAKE A BIG RIGHT TURN
AND FOLLOW THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS CONTOURS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AS SOME SYSTEMS DO? WHILE SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RES
MODELS SUGGESTED THIS...IT NOW APPEARS THIS POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
DOESN`T MEAN DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST...AND IN FACT MOST MODELS DO
SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MY FORECAST
POPS RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER TO ABOUT 50
PERCENT FROM ELIZABETHTOWN TO BURGAW.

AFTER MIDNIGHT DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT SOUTHWARD AS THE SURFACE
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST BY
SUNRISE WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90
DEGREES IN FLORENCE! THE SEABREEZE WILL BE DELAYED BY THE OFFSHORE
WIND AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BEACHES TO WARM TO 80 DEGREES OR
BETTER BEFORE THE SEABREEZE FINALLY FORMS AROUND 2-3 PM.

WINDS WILL BE QUICK TO VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEHIND
THIS FRONT DOES NOT BUILD APPRECIABLY SOUTHWARD. THIS VEERING LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO GRADUALLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. IT`S WORTH NOTING THE
12Z NAM IS MUCH MORE MOIST (AND CLOUDIER) AND THEREFORE MUCH COOLER
WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS. GIVEN THE COOL
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND PREDICTED ON BOTH MODELS THE 12Z GFS HIGHS LOOK
TOO WARM REGARDLESS OF WHAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TURNS OUT TO BE.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE CAROLINAS BY
SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THIS COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-95...PERHAPS BECOMING
A BIT MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME
SEMBLANCE OF POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WPC CONTINUES
TO PREFER A SOLUTION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLES MIXED IN. THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER.

A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GIVE SURFACE FEATURES MORE
PUSH. THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR SUNDAY WITH AN INITIAL WAVE AND TUESDAY
WHEN A SECOND WAVE MOVES BY. CERTAINLY NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED BUT WPC QPF FOR DAYS 4-7 ARE NEAR TWO INCHES.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWN A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE BUT STILL OVERALL AVERAGES ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...AREA OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING AFFECTED ALL THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT LBT...BUT THIS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE LEAVING DRY WEATHER WITH
CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TSTMS HAS
DECREASED THIS AFTN/EVE...AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN
POTENTIAL IN CURRENT TAF SET...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTM AT
LBT/FLO AS SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS INLAND. HAVE INDICATED
TEMPO MVFR...BUT BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE HANDLED WITH SHORT AMDS IF NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN VARIABLE WILL RETURN TO THE SW
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTS 15-20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
EVENING.

DIURNAL TSTMS AND CLOUD COVER WILL WANE AFTER DARK...BUT AS THE COLD
FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH...AN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DROP SE
TOWARDS LBT/ILM. ATTM EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN N/NE OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH AT ILM ONLY WHICH WILL BE
CLOSEST TO THE EXPECTED CONVECTION. OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS
POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DESPITE
FAVORABLE NEAR-SURFACE HYDROLAPSE RATES...BUT HAVE ADDED MVFR INLAND
ALONG WITH SOME STRATUS. AT THE COAST FOG CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER.

COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW AND A RAPID EROSION OF ANY FOG/CLOUD COVER IN THE
MORNING. VFR WITH NW WINDS AND ONLY A FEW SCATTERED CU IS FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...A FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL GET A KICK SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE DELAYED THE
HEATING THAT WOULD HAVE OCCURRED AND THIS HAS LED TO LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS THAN WAS INITIALLY EXPECTED. ENOUGH SUN SHOULD OCCUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON TO GET WINDS UP TO SSW 15 KNOTS...WITH SW 10-15 KT
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

THE BEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
RALEIGH AND GREENSBORO MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. WHILE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN UP TOWARD THE
CRYSTAL COAST...THERE`S A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
NEAR CAPE FEAR BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH LESSER CHANCES
SOUTHWARD.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WILL USHER IN LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...INTENSE SOLAR HEATING
INLAND SHOULD HELP DEVELOP AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WITH NEARSHORE
WINDS TURNING ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT DOESN`T DIG SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS...ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE
SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. BY
MONDAY A FRONT MOVING CLOSER INCREASES THE GRADIENT AND BACKS THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST A BIT. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. THE
FRONT EASES ACROSS EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ESSENTIALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. THERE COULD
BE A FEW FIVE FOOTERS MIXED IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 281728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
128 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR TODAY WILL HELP CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY...
DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE ARE CROSSING THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER NOW AND SHOULD
BE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND THE LINE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP TO SPIKE TEMPS INTO THE 80S VERY
QUICKLY. LOOK FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND FOR NEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. THE
LATEST HRRR/HRRRX MODELS SUGGEST ABOUT 30 PERCENT COVERAGE BETWEEN
NOW AND SUNSET. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...

THIS NEAR TERM UPDATES FOCUS ON THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASILY PICKED OUT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW APPROACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. LIFT
JUST AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINTAIN THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD TO MYRTLE BEACH AND EVENTUALLY
WILMINGTON OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE- BASED PARCELS ARE
CAPPED...AND THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ROOTED IN A LAYER OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 4000-7000 FEET AGL AS DIAGNOSED ON
THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING.

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD TAKE THIS CONVECTION LARGELY OFF THE
COAST BY NOON. DRIER AIR AT AND ABOVE THE 700 MB LAYER WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A SHARP REDUCTION IN
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED INITIALLY. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SOAR THROUGH THE 80S AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
GROWS TO 1500-2000 J/KG I ANTICIPATE 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP MAINLY DUE TO INSTABILITY ALONE.
THE DRY AIR ALOFT ENTRAINING INTO THE STORMS SHOULD CAUSE THE RISK
FOR GUSTY WINDS TO GROW AS DIAGNOSED BY FORECAST DOWNDRAFT CAPE
(DCAPE) VALUES OF 800-1000 J/KG IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BULK SHEAR
THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER REMAINS TOO WEAK FOR CONCERN...SO THE
MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC IS LIKELY TIED TO THIS DRY AIR ALOFT.

SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE KEYING ON A WEAK DISTURBANCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TO DEVELOP A
POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THERE. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...VEERING MID-LEVEL FLOW PLUS THE DRY AIR ALOFT COULD CAUSE
THIS CONVECTION TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND RACE TOWARD OUR PORTION
OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. THIS IS A CONDITIONAL RISK BASED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND BEHAVING AS I AM EXPECTING...BUT THIS
FINAL CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. I HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT IN THE
WILMINGTON AREA...20-30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE...FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...THE TREND FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY WILL BE
FOR A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SE STATES.

FOR FRI HOWEVER...THE W TO NW FLOW THRU THE ATM COLUMN...AND THUS
A DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS...WILL AID MAX TEMPS
ON FRI THAT REACH THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. THE W-NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO SCOUR OUT ANY CLOUDINESS OR MOISTURE ALOFT BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE ILM CWA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AID THE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES...TO TEMPORARILY RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FA LATE FRI
NIGHT THRU SAT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A NE-ENE COOL SURGE PEAKING
DURING SAT. NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS SURGE DUE TO A DRY ATM
COLUMN UNDER W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE ILM CWA SAT NIGHT ENDING THE COOL SURGE OF AIR. IN ADDITION...
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE SW
AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY. RETURN SE FLOW AT THE
SFC...WILL START PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE FA.
HAVE HELD POPS AT BAY UNTIL DAYTIME SUN. STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST OUT TO SEA. A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. PCP
WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES SUN AFTN. OVERALL
EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR LATE MON INTO TUES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ECMWF MUCH WETTER FOR MIDWEEK WITH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH AND CONVECTION FLARING UP OVER THE
CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MUCH BROADER MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WITH BEST CHC OF PCP TO THE SOUTH WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE. EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TUES INTO WED.

TEMPS IN THE 80S SUN INTO MON WILL COOL MON NIGHT INTO TUES
BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST
PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AGAIN TUES INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...AREA OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING AFFECTED ALL THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT LBT...BUT THIS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE LEAVING DRY WEATHER WITH
CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TSTMS HAS
DECREASED THIS AFTN/EVE...AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN
POTENTIAL IN CURRENT TAF SET...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTM AT
LBT/FLO AS SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS INLAND. HAVE INDICATED
TEMPO MVFR...BUT BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE HANDLED WITH SHORT AMDS IF NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN VARIABLE WILL RETURN TO THE SW
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTS 15-20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
EVENING.

DIURNAL TSTMS AND CLOUD COVER WILL WANE AFTER DARK...BUT AS THE COLD
FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH...AN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DROP SE
TOWARDS LBT/ILM. ATTM EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN N/NE OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH AT ILM ONLY WHICH WILL BE
CLOSEST TO THE EXPECTED CONVECTION. OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS
POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DESPITE
FAVORABLE NEAR-SURFACE HYDROLAPSE RATES...BUT HAVE ADDED MVFR INLAND
ALONG WITH SOME STRATUS. AT THE COAST FOG CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER.

COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW AND A RAPID EROSION OF ANY FOG/CLOUD COVER IN THE
MORNING. VFR WITH NW WINDS AND ONLY A FEW SCATTERED CU IS FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...THE WIND FIELD IS STILL RATHER CHAOTIC
AFTER THIS MORNING`S SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS
SHOULD PUSH OFF THE CAPE FEAR BEACHES OVER THE NEXT 30-45 MINUTES
ALLOWING THE SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS TO RESUME BY MID
AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
GRAND STRAND COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THESE MAY SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD TO IMPACT THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BEFORE NOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DELAY THE FORMATION OF TODAY`S SEABREEZE BY
SEVERAL HOURS...AND I DON`T EXPECT TO SEE NEARSHORE WIND SPEEDS
KICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD DECREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WE`LL BE
WATCHING FOR SOME GUSTY STORMS TO POSSIBLY ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE IS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
WATERS. A WEAK FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
VEERING WIND DIRECTIONS MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...A RELAXED SFC PG ON FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE
WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN WILL
RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT SEAS FRI WILL
RUN 2 TO 3 FT. THE ENE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL
OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING FRI.

A COOL NE WIND SURGE WILL OCCUR LATER FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY NOSES DOWN THE EAST COAST TO THE ILM CWA.
FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...LOOK FOR WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO
POSSIBLY 20 KT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND SOUTH OF THE
CAPE...10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE E-SE SAT NIGHT
DUE TO THE BREAK FROM THE SFC RIDGING FROM THE NORTH. THE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT WIND SPEEDS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS SAT THRU
SAT NIGHT WILL ELEVATE TO 3 TO 4 FT CAPE FEAR NORTH...AND HOLD AT
3 FT OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPE. WIND DRIVEN 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS
TO DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS SAT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUN
AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN HEADING INTO TUES.

SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN BUT WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT OF THE
S-SW. WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS MON AFTN
BUT THEN DECREASING HEADING INTO TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...JDW
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KILM 281626
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1226 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR TODAY WILL HELP CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY...
DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE ARE CROSSING THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER NOW AND SHOULD
BE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND THE LINE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP TO SPIKE TEMPS INTO THE 80S VERY
QUICKLY. LOOK FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND FOR NEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. THE
LATEST HRRR/HRRRX MODELS SUGGEST ABOUT 30 PERCENT COVERAGE BETWEEN
NOW AND SUNSET. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...

THIS NEAR TERM UPDATES FOCUS ON THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EASILY PICKED OUT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW APPROACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. LIFT
JUST AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINTAIN THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD TO MYRTLE BEACH AND EVENTUALLY
WILMINGTON OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE- BASED PARCELS ARE
CAPPED...AND THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ROOTED IN A LAYER OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 4000-7000 FEET AGL AS DIAGNOSED ON
THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING.

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD TAKE THIS CONVECTION LARGELY OFF THE
COAST BY NOON. DRIER AIR AT AND ABOVE THE 700 MB LAYER WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A SHARP REDUCTION IN
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED INITIALLY. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SOAR THROUGH THE 80S AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
GROWS TO 1500-2000 J/KG I ANTICIPATE 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP MAINLY DUE TO INSTABILITY ALONE.
THE DRY AIR ALOFT ENTRAINING INTO THE STORMS SHOULD CAUSE THE RISK
FOR GUSTY WINDS TO GROW AS DIAGNOSED BY FORECAST DOWNDRAFT CAPE
(DCAPE) VALUES OF 800-1000 J/KG IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BULK SHEAR
THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER REMAINS TOO WEAK FOR CONCERN...SO THE
MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC IS LIKELY TIED TO THIS DRY AIR ALOFT.

SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE KEYING ON A WEAK DISTURBANCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TO DEVELOP A
POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THERE. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...VEERING MID-LEVEL FLOW PLUS THE DRY AIR ALOFT COULD CAUSE
THIS CONVECTION TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND RACE TOWARD OUR PORTION
OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. THIS IS A CONDITIONAL RISK BASED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND BEHAVING AS I AM EXPECTING...BUT THIS
FINAL CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. I HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT IN THE
WILMINGTON AREA...20-30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE...FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...THE TREND FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY WILL BE
FOR A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SE STATES.

FOR FRI HOWEVER...THE W TO NW FLOW THRU THE ATM COLUMN...AND THUS
A DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS...WILL AID MAX TEMPS
ON FRI THAT REACH THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. THE W-NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO SCOUR OUT ANY CLOUDINESS OR MOISTURE ALOFT BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE ILM CWA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AID THE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES...TO TEMPORARILY RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FA LATE FRI
NIGHT THRU SAT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A NE-ENE COOL SURGE PEAKING
DURING SAT. NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS SURGE DUE TO A DRY ATM
COLUMN UNDER W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE ILM CWA SAT NIGHT ENDING THE COOL SURGE OF AIR. IN ADDITION...
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE SW
AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY. RETURN SE FLOW AT THE
SFC...WILL START PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE FA.
HAVE HELD POPS AT BAY UNTIL DAYTIME SUN. STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST OUT TO SEA. A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. PCP
WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES SUN AFTN. OVERALL
EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR LATE MON INTO TUES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ECMWF MUCH WETTER FOR MIDWEEK WITH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH AND CONVECTION FLARING UP OVER THE
CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MUCH BROADER MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WITH BEST CHC OF PCP TO THE SOUTH WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE. EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TUES INTO WED.

TEMPS IN THE 80S SUN INTO MON WILL COOL MON NIGHT INTO TUES
BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST
PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AGAIN TUES INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING ALONG
THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS INCREASE ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING FROM THE
NORTH.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCRE
WHERE LOW CIGS ARE CREATING IFR ATTM. EXPECT MVFR/IFR AT
KCRE/POTENTIALLY KMYR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTS SHOWERS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF KILM AS WELL AS JUST
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE SHOWERS NEAR KILM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFFSHORE...EXPECT SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE AREA TO CONTINUE
MIGRATING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE INLAND TERMINALS. FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AOB
15 KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS AND LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR IN
ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL PREVAIL THOUGH AREAS OF FOG
ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...THE WIND FIELD IS STILL RATHER CHAOTIC
AFTER THIS MORNING`S SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS
SHOULD PUSH OFF THE CAPE FEAR BEACHES OVER THE NEXT 30-45 MINUTES
ALLOWING THE SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS TO RESUME BY MID
AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
GRAND STRAND COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THESE MAY SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD TO IMPACT THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BEFORE NOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DELAY THE FORMATION OF TODAY`S SEABREEZE BY
SEVERAL HOURS...AND I DON`T EXPECT TO SEE NEARSHORE WIND SPEEDS
KICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD DECREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WE`LL BE
WATCHING FOR SOME GUSTY STORMS TO POSSIBLY ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE IS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
WATERS. A WEAK FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
VEERING WIND DIRECTIONS MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...A RELAXED SFC PG ON FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE
WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN WILL
RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT SEAS FRI WILL
RUN 2 TO 3 FT. THE ENE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL
OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING FRI.

A COOL NE WIND SURGE WILL OCCUR LATER FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY NOSES DOWN THE EAST COAST TO THE ILM CWA.
FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...LOOK FOR WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO
POSSIBLY 20 KT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND SOUTH OF THE
CAPE...10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE E-SE SAT NIGHT
DUE TO THE BREAK FROM THE SFC RIDGING FROM THE NORTH. THE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT WIND SPEEDS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS SAT THRU
SAT NIGHT WILL ELEVATE TO 3 TO 4 FT CAPE FEAR NORTH...AND HOLD AT
3 FT OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPE. WIND DRIVEN 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS
TO DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS SAT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUN
AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN HEADING INTO TUES.

SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN BUT WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT OF THE
S-SW. WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS MON AFTN
BUT THEN DECREASING HEADING INTO TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 281223
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
823 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSTABLE AIR AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AID THE STRONGER CONVECTION TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY ENDING THE PCPN THREAT AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. DAY-TIME FRI HIGHS WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 80S DUE TO THE AID OF A W TO NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH CLOUDINESS AND PCPN. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS LATE MON ALLOWING THE AREA TO DRY OUT ON TUE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM THURSDAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CURRENT SHOWER WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NC COASTAL AREAS THIS
MORNING. SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM
BRUNSWICK COUNTY NORTHWARD...HAS RESULTED IN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND AVBL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
VIEWED BY THE LATEST KLTX 88D REFLECTIVITY TRENDS. CLOUD TOPS
BARELY TOUCH 20K FEET WITH NO LIGHTNING BEING REPORTED UP TO THIS
POINT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9 AM AS THE LOW LEVEL
MESOSCALE FORCING DISSIPATES.

PREVIOUS...................................................
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT REACHED ITS
FURTHEST SOUTHERN EXTENT... HAVING STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
VA-NC STATE LINE. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. THE STALLED FRONT TO RETURN BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

FOR TODAY...THE FA REMAINS PRIMED ATLEAST INSTABILITY-WISE...WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3500...AND JUST ENOUGH AVBL
MOISTURE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT HAS PLACED LIMITS ON MOISTURE TAPPING. WHAT THE FA IS
WAITING FOR ARE DYNAMICS TO KICK START THE PCPN ACTIVITY. THE
MODELS...EVEN THIS CLOSE IN TIME...ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN MAINLY
THE TIMING OF THESE ARE ANY FEATURES THAT PRODUCE UVVS ACROSS THE
FA TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND THEIR TIMING. THE
WEAKEST OF THE AVBL DYNAMICS FOR PCPN FORMATION WILL BE THE SEA
BREEZE. THE 1ST AND STRONGEST OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER S/W TROFS
OR VORTS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY TO MID AFTN. THE NEXT 1 WILL BE THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS...HAVE CAPPED THEM BELOW 50 PERCENT AT THEIR
PEAK. PCPN TYPE WILL BE CONVECTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THRU
THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE DAYS
INSOLATION. AND FINALLY...THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRI WILL RESULT IN ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IF ANY.
THIS A RESULT OF MUCH DRIER AIR MID AND UPPER LEVELS WORKING INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LOWERING PWS TO BELOW 1 INCH BY FRI
DAYBREAK...AFTER PEAKING AROUND 1.50 INCHES DURING TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...THE TREND FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY WILL BE
FOR A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SE STATES.

FOR FRI HOWEVER...THE W TO NW FLOW THRU THE ATM COLUMN...AND THUS
A DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS...WILL AID MAX TEMPS
ON FRI THAT REACH THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. THE W-NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO SCOUR OUT ANY CLOUDINESS OR MOISTURE ALOFT BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE ILM CWA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AID THE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES...TO TEMPORARILY RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FA LATE FRI
NIGHT THRU SAT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A NE-ENE COOL SURGE PEAKING
DURING SAT. NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS SURGE DUE TO A DRY ATM
COLUMN UNDER W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE ILM CWA SAT NIGHT ENDING THE COOL SURGE OF AIR. IN ADDITION...
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE SW
AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY. RETURN SE FLOW AT THE
SFC...WILL START PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE FA.
HAVE HELD POPS AT BAY UNTIL DAYTIME SUN. STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST OUT TO SEA. A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. PCP
WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES SUN AFTN. OVERALL
EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR LATE MON INTO TUES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ECMWF MUCH WETTER FOR MIDWEEK WITH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH AND CONVECTION FLARING UP OVER THE
CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MUCH BROADER MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WITH BEST CHC OF PCP TO THE SOUTH WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE. EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TUES INTO WED.

TEMPS IN THE 80S SUN INTO MON WILL COOL MON NIGHT INTO TUES
BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST
PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AGAIN TUES INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING ALONG
THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS INCREASE ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING FROM THE
NORTH.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCRE
WHERE LOW CIGS ARE CREATING IFR ATTM. EXPECT MVFR/IFR AT
KCRE/POTENTIALLY KMYR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTS SHOWERS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF KILM AS WELL AS JUST
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE SHOWERS NEAR KILM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFFSHORE...EXPECT SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE AREA TO CONTINUE
MIGRATING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE INLAND TERMINALS. FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AOB
15 KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS AND LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR IN
ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL PREVAIL THOUGH AREAS OF FOG
ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM THURSDAY...HAVE INCLUDED THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER FOR THE NEARSHORE ILM NC WATERS THRU MID-
MORNING. LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE
THE DYNAMICS TO CONTINUE THIS PCPN THREAT TIL MID DAYTIME
MORNING.

PREVIOUS.........................................................
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE
FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS...WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE ILM
WATERS TODAY. THE PINCHED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A NEARLY SOLID SW
15 KT WIND ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTN...AND
TRACK TO OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE TONIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK FRI. NOT ALL
THAT DRAMATIC WITH THIS CFP...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AT 10 TO
15 KT WITH ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN
A SOLID 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO LITTLE RIVER
INLET DUE TO A FAVORABLE FETCH FOR SEAS TO BUILD. WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...A RELAXED SFC PG ON FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE
WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN WILL
RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT SEAS FRI WILL
RUN 2 TO 3 FT. THE ENE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL
OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING FRI.

A COOL NE WIND SURGE WILL OCCUR LATER FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY NOSES DOWN THE EAST COAST TO THE ILM CWA.
FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...LOOK FOR WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO
POSSIBLY 20 KT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND SOUTH OF THE
CAPE...10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE E-SE SAT NIGHT
DUE TO THE BREAK FROM THE SFC RIDGING FROM THE NORTH. THE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT WIND SPEEDS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS SAT THRU
SAT NIGHT WILL ELEVATE TO 3 TO 4 FT CAPE FEAR NORTH...AND HOLD AT
3 FT OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPE. WIND DRIVEN 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS
TO DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS SAT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUN
AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN HEADING INTO TUES.

SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN BUT WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT OF THE
S-SW. WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS MON AFTN
BUT THEN DECREASING HEADING INTO TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 281035
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
635 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSTABLE AIR AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AID THE STRONGER CONVECTION TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY ENDING THE PCPN THREAT AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. DAY-TIME FRI HIGHS WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 80S DUE TO THE AID OF A W TO NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH CLOUDINESS AND PCPN. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS LATE MON ALLOWING THE AREA TO DRY OUT ON TUE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM THURSDAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CURRENT SHOWER WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NC COASTAL AREAS THIS
MORNING. SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM
BRUNSWICK COUNTY NORTHWARD...HAS RESULTED IN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND AVBL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
VIEWED BY THE LATEST KLTX 88D REFLECTIVITY TRENDS. CLOUD TOPS
BARELY TOUCH 20K FEET WITH NO LIGHTNING BEING REPORTED UP TO THIS
POINT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9 AM AS THE LOW LEVEL
MESOSCALE FORCING DISSIPATES.

PREVIOUS...................................................
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT REACHED ITS
FURTHEST SOUTHERN EXTENT... HAVING STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
VA-NC STATE LINE. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. THE STALLED FRONT TO RETURN BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

FOR TODAY...THE FA REMAINS PRIMED ATLEAST INSTABILITY-WISE...WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3500...AND JUST ENOUGH AVBL
MOISTURE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT HAS PLACED LIMITS ON MOISTURE TAPPING. WHAT THE FA IS
WAITING FOR ARE DYNAMICS TO KICK START THE PCPN ACTIVITY. THE
MODELS...EVEN THIS CLOSE IN TIME...ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN MAINLY
THE TIMING OF THESE ARE ANY FEATURES THAT PRODUCE UVVS ACROSS THE
FA TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND THEIR TIMING. THE
WEAKEST OF THE AVBL DYNAMICS FOR PCPN FORMATION WILL BE THE SEA
BREEZE. THE 1ST AND STRONGEST OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER S/W TROFS
OR VORTS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY TO MID AFTN. THE NEXT 1 WILL BE THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS...HAVE CAPPED THEM BELOW 50 PERCENT AT THEIR
PEAK. PCPN TYPE WILL BE CONVECTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THRU
THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE DAYS
INSOLATION. AND FINALLY...THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRI WILL RESULT IN ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IF ANY.
THIS A RESULT OF MUCH DRIER AIR MID AND UPPER LEVELS WORKING INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LOWERING PWS TO BELOW 1 INCH BY FRI
DAYBREAK...AFTER PEAKING AROUND 1.50 INCHES DURING TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...THE TREND FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY WILL BE
FOR A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SE STATES.

FOR FRI HOWEVER...THE W TO NW FLOW THRU THE ATM COLUMN...AND THUS
A DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS...WILL AID MAX TEMPS
ON FRI THAT REACH THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. THE W-NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO SCOUR OUT ANY CLOUDINESS OR MOISTURE ALOFT BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE ILM CWA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AID THE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES...TO TEMPORARILY RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FA LATE FRI
NIGHT THRU SAT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A NE-ENE COOL SURGE PEAKING
DURING SAT. NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS SURGE DUE TO A DRY ATM
COLUMN UNDER W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE ILM CWA SAT NIGHT ENDING THE COOL SURGE OF AIR. IN ADDITION...
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE SW
AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY. RETURN SE FLOW AT THE
SFC...WILL START PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE FA.
HAVE HELD POPS AT BAY UNTIL DAYTIME SUN. STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST OUT TO SEA. A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. PCP
WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES SUN AFTN. OVERALL
EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR LATE MON INTO TUES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ECMWF MUCH WETTER FOR MIDWEEK WITH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH AND CONVECTION FLARING UP OVER THE
CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MUCH BROADER MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WITH BEST CHC OF PCP TO THE SOUTH WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE. EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TUES INTO WED.

TEMPS IN THE 80S SUN INTO MON WILL COOL MON NIGHT INTO TUES
BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST
PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AGAIN TUES INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF
MVFR/IFR LOW STRATUS DECK POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS NEAR
DAYBREAK. ENOUGH TO MENTION HERE BUT TOO ISOLATED TO PLACE IN THE
TAFS. MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
THRU EARLY THIS EVENING FROM THE DAYS CONVECTION.

BROKEN LINE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STALLED FRONT...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. A STRAY SHOWER
MAY AFFECT COASTAL MYR AND CRE TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BUT
TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. SW WINDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ENOUGH TO DETOUR
FOG FORMATION AT THE SFC THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL EMBEDDED S/W
TROFS OR VORTS WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HRS...AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH AVBL MOISTURE
AND THE DAYS INSOLATION RESULTING IN MODEST
INSTABILITY...2500-3500 PROGGED CAPE...WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
CONVECTION RUNNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. WILL TIME THE STRONGER CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INLAND
TERMINALS TO MID TO LATE THIS AFTN COASTAL TERMINALS. LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FROM MID TO LATE THIS EVENING. SFC PG WILL
REMAIN TIGHTENED...PRODUCING SW 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
THIS AFTN. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS
SUBSIDING TO 5 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SHOWERS EARLY FRI MORNING
WILL END FOLLOWED BY A CFP. VFR DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MVFR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM THURSDAY...HAVE INCLUDED THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER FOR THE NEARSHORE ILM NC WATERS THRU MID-
MORNING. LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE
THE DYNAMICS TO CONTINUE THIS PCPN THREAT TIL MID DAYTIME
MORNING.

PREVIOUS.........................................................
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE
FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS...WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE ILM
WATERS TODAY. THE PINCHED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A NEARLY SOLID SW
15 KT WIND ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTN...AND
TRACK TO OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE TONIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK FRI. NOT ALL
THAT DRAMATIC WITH THIS CFP...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AT 10 TO
15 KT WITH ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN
A SOLID 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO LITTLE RIVER
INLET DUE TO A FAVORABLE FETCH FOR SEAS TO BUILD. WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...A RELAXED SFC PG ON FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE
WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN WILL
RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT SEAS FRI WILL
RUN 2 TO 3 FT. THE ENE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL
OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING FRI.

A COOL NE WIND SURGE WILL OCCUR LATER FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY NOSES DOWN THE EAST COAST TO THE ILM CWA.
FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...LOOK FOR WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO
POSSIBLY 20 KT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND SOUTH OF THE
CAPE...10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE E-SE SAT NIGHT
DUE TO THE BREAK FROM THE SFC RIDGING FROM THE NORTH. THE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT WIND SPEEDS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS SAT THRU
SAT NIGHT WILL ELEVATE TO 3 TO 4 FT CAPE FEAR NORTH...AND HOLD AT
3 FT OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPE. WIND DRIVEN 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS
TO DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS SAT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUN
AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN HEADING INTO TUES.

SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN BUT WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT OF THE
S-SW. WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS MON AFTN
BUT THEN DECREASING HEADING INTO TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 281011
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
611 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSTABLE AIR AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AID THE STRONGER CONVECTION TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY ENDING THE PCPN THREAT AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. DAY-TIME FRI HIGHS WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 80S DUE TO THE AID OF A W TO NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH CLOUDINESS AND PCPN. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS LATE MON ALLOWING THE AREA TO DRY OUT ON TUE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM THURSDAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CURRENT SHOWER WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NC COASTAL AREAS THIS
MORNING. SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM
BRUNSWICK COUNTY NORTHWARD...HAS RESULTED IN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND AVBL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
VIEWED BY THE LATEST KLTX 88D REFLECTIVITY TRENDS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9 AM AS THE LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE FORCING
DISSIPATES.

PREVIOUS...................................................
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT REACHED ITS
FURTHEST SOUTHERN EXTENT... HAVING STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
VA-NC STATE LINE. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. THE STALLED FRONT TO RETURN BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

FOR TODAY...THE FA REMAINS PRIMED ATLEAST INSTABILITY-WISE...WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3500...AND JUST ENOUGH AVBL
MOISTURE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT HAS PLACED LIMITS ON MOISTURE TAPPING. WHAT THE FA IS
WAITING FOR ARE DYNAMICS TO KICK START THE PCPN ACTIVITY. THE
MODELS...EVEN THIS CLOSE IN TIME...ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN MAINLY
THE TIMING OF THESE ARE ANY FEATURES THAT PRODUCE UVVS ACROSS THE
FA TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND THEIR TIMING. THE
WEAKEST OF THE AVBL DYNAMICS FOR PCPN FORMATION WILL BE THE SEA
BREEZE. THE 1ST AND STRONGEST OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER S/W TROFS
OR VORTS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY TO MID AFTN. THE NEXT 1 WILL BE THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS...HAVE CAPPED THEM BELOW 50 PERCENT AT THEIR
PEAK. PCPN TYPE WILL BE CONVECTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THRU
THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE DAYS
INSOLATION. AND FINALLY...THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRI WILL RESULT IN ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IF ANY.
THIS A RESULT OF MUCH DRIER AIR MID AND UPPER LEVELS WORKING INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LOWERING PWS TO BELOW 1 INCH BY FRI
DAYBREAK...AFTER PEAKING AROUND 1.50 INCHES DURING TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...THE TREND FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY WILL BE
FOR A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SE STATES.

FOR FRI HOWEVER...THE W TO NW FLOW THRU THE ATM COLUMN...AND THUS
A DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS...WILL AID MAX TEMPS
ON FRI THAT REACH THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. THE W-NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO SCOUR OUT ANY CLOUDINESS OR MOISTURE ALOFT BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE ILM CWA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AID THE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES...TO TEMPORARILY RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FA LATE FRI
NIGHT THRU SAT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A NE-ENE COOL SURGE PEAKING
DURING SAT. NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS SURGE DUE TO A DRY ATM
COLUMN UNDER W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE ILM CWA SAT NIGHT ENDING THE COOL SURGE OF AIR. IN ADDITION...
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE SW
AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY. RETURN SE FLOW AT THE
SFC...WILL START PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE FA.
HAVE HELD POPS AT BAY UNTIL DAYTIME SUN. STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST OUT TO SEA. A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. PCP
WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES SUN AFTN. OVERALL
EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR LATE MON INTO TUES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ECMWF MUCH WETTER FOR MIDWEEK WITH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH AND CONVECTION FLARING UP OVER THE
CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MUCH BROADER MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WITH BEST CHC OF PCP TO THE SOUTH WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE. EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TUES INTO WED.

TEMPS IN THE 80S SUN INTO MON WILL COOL MON NIGHT INTO TUES
BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST
PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AGAIN TUES INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF
MVFR/IFR LOW STRATUS DECK POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS NEAR
DAYBREAK. ENOUGH TO MENTION HERE BUT TOO ISOLATED TO PLACE IN THE
TAFS. MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
THRU EARLY THIS EVENING FROM THE DAYS CONVECTION.

BROKEN LINE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STALLED FRONT...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. A STRAY SHOWER
MAY AFFECT COASTAL MYR AND CRE TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BUT
TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. SW WINDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ENOUGH TO DETOUR
FOG FORMATION AT THE SFC THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL EMBEDDED S/W
TROFS OR VORTS WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HRS...AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH AVBL MOISTURE
AND THE DAYS INSOLATION RESULTING IN MODEST
INSTABILITY...2500-3500 PROGGED CAPE...WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
CONVECTION RUNNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. WILL TIME THE STRONGER CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INLAND
TERMINALS TO MID TO LATE THIS AFTN COASTAL TERMINALS. LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FROM MID TO LATE THIS EVENING. SFC PG WILL
REMAIN TIGHTENED...PRODUCING SW 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
THIS AFTN. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS
SUBSIDING TO 5 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SHOWERS EARLY FRI MORNING
WILL END FOLLOWED BY A CFP. VFR DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MVFR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM THURSDAY...HAVE INCLUDED THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER FOR THE NEARSHORE ILM NC WATERS THRU MID-
MORNING. LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE
THE DYNAMICS TO CONTINUE THIS PCPN THREAT TIL MID DAYTIME
MORNING.

PREVIOUS.........................................................
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE
FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS...WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE ILM
WATERS TODAY. THE PINCHED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A NEARLY SOLID SW
15 KT WIND ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTN...AND
TRACK TO OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE TONIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK FRI. NOT ALL
THAT DRAMATIC WITH THIS CFP...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AT 10 TO
15 KT WITH ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN
A SOLID 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO LITTLE RIVER
INLET DUE TO A FAVORABLE FETCH FOR SEAS TO BUILD. WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...A RELAXED SFC PG ON FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE
WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN WILL
RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT SEAS FRI WILL
RUN 2 TO 3 FT. THE ENE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL
OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING FRI.

A COOL NE WIND SURGE WILL OCCUR LATER FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY NOSES DOWN THE EAST COAST TO THE ILM CWA.
FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...LOOK FOR WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO
POSSIBLY 20 KT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND SOUTH OF THE
CAPE...10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE E-SE SAT NIGHT
DUE TO THE BREAK FROM THE SFC RIDGING FROM THE NORTH. THE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT WIND SPEEDS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS SAT THRU
SAT NIGHT WILL ELEVATE TO 3 TO 4 FT CAPE FEAR NORTH...AND HOLD AT
3 FT OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPE. WIND DRIVEN 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS
TO DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS SAT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUN
AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN HEADING INTO TUES.

SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN BUT WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT OF THE
S-SW. WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS MON AFTN
BUT THEN DECREASING HEADING INTO TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 281011
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
611 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSTABLE AIR AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AID THE STRONGER CONVECTION TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY ENDING THE PCPN THREAT AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. DAY-TIME FRI HIGHS WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 80S DUE TO THE AID OF A W TO NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH CLOUDINESS AND PCPN. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS LATE MON ALLOWING THE AREA TO DRY OUT ON TUE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM THURSDAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CURRENT SHOWER WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NC COASTAL AREAS THIS
MORNING. SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM
BRUNSWICK COUNTY NORTHWARD...HAS RESULTED IN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND AVBL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
VIEWED BY THE LATEST KLTX 88D REFLECTIVITY TRENDS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9 AM AS THE LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE FORCING
DISSIPATES.

PREVIOUS...................................................
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT REACHED ITS
FURTHEST SOUTHERN EXTENT... HAVING STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
VA-NC STATE LINE. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. THE STALLED FRONT TO RETURN BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

FOR TODAY...THE FA REMAINS PRIMED ATLEAST INSTABILITY-WISE...WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3500...AND JUST ENOUGH AVBL
MOISTURE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT HAS PLACED LIMITS ON MOISTURE TAPPING. WHAT THE FA IS
WAITING FOR ARE DYNAMICS TO KICK START THE PCPN ACTIVITY. THE
MODELS...EVEN THIS CLOSE IN TIME...ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN MAINLY
THE TIMING OF THESE ARE ANY FEATURES THAT PRODUCE UVVS ACROSS THE
FA TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND THEIR TIMING. THE
WEAKEST OF THE AVBL DYNAMICS FOR PCPN FORMATION WILL BE THE SEA
BREEZE. THE 1ST AND STRONGEST OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER S/W TROFS
OR VORTS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY TO MID AFTN. THE NEXT 1 WILL BE THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS...HAVE CAPPED THEM BELOW 50 PERCENT AT THEIR
PEAK. PCPN TYPE WILL BE CONVECTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THRU
THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE DAYS
INSOLATION. AND FINALLY...THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRI WILL RESULT IN ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IF ANY.
THIS A RESULT OF MUCH DRIER AIR MID AND UPPER LEVELS WORKING INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LOWERING PWS TO BELOW 1 INCH BY FRI
DAYBREAK...AFTER PEAKING AROUND 1.50 INCHES DURING TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...THE TREND FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY WILL BE
FOR A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SE STATES.

FOR FRI HOWEVER...THE W TO NW FLOW THRU THE ATM COLUMN...AND THUS
A DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS...WILL AID MAX TEMPS
ON FRI THAT REACH THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. THE W-NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO SCOUR OUT ANY CLOUDINESS OR MOISTURE ALOFT BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE ILM CWA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AID THE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES...TO TEMPORARILY RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FA LATE FRI
NIGHT THRU SAT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A NE-ENE COOL SURGE PEAKING
DURING SAT. NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS SURGE DUE TO A DRY ATM
COLUMN UNDER W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE ILM CWA SAT NIGHT ENDING THE COOL SURGE OF AIR. IN ADDITION...
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE SW
AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY. RETURN SE FLOW AT THE
SFC...WILL START PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE FA.
HAVE HELD POPS AT BAY UNTIL DAYTIME SUN. STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST OUT TO SEA. A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. PCP
WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES SUN AFTN. OVERALL
EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR LATE MON INTO TUES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ECMWF MUCH WETTER FOR MIDWEEK WITH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH AND CONVECTION FLARING UP OVER THE
CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MUCH BROADER MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WITH BEST CHC OF PCP TO THE SOUTH WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE. EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TUES INTO WED.

TEMPS IN THE 80S SUN INTO MON WILL COOL MON NIGHT INTO TUES
BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST
PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AGAIN TUES INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF
MVFR/IFR LOW STRATUS DECK POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS NEAR
DAYBREAK. ENOUGH TO MENTION HERE BUT TOO ISOLATED TO PLACE IN THE
TAFS. MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
THRU EARLY THIS EVENING FROM THE DAYS CONVECTION.

BROKEN LINE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STALLED FRONT...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. A STRAY SHOWER
MAY AFFECT COASTAL MYR AND CRE TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BUT
TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. SW WINDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ENOUGH TO DETOUR
FOG FORMATION AT THE SFC THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL EMBEDDED S/W
TROFS OR VORTS WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HRS...AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH AVBL MOISTURE
AND THE DAYS INSOLATION RESULTING IN MODEST
INSTABILITY...2500-3500 PROGGED CAPE...WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
CONVECTION RUNNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. WILL TIME THE STRONGER CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INLAND
TERMINALS TO MID TO LATE THIS AFTN COASTAL TERMINALS. LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FROM MID TO LATE THIS EVENING. SFC PG WILL
REMAIN TIGHTENED...PRODUCING SW 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
THIS AFTN. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS
SUBSIDING TO 5 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SHOWERS EARLY FRI MORNING
WILL END FOLLOWED BY A CFP. VFR DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MVFR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM THURSDAY...HAVE INCLUDED THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER FOR THE NEARSHORE ILM NC WATERS THRU MID-
MORNING. LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE
THE DYNAMICS TO CONTINUE THIS PCPN THREAT TIL MID DAYTIME
MORNING.

PREVIOUS.........................................................
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE
FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS...WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE ILM
WATERS TODAY. THE PINCHED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A NEARLY SOLID SW
15 KT WIND ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTN...AND
TRACK TO OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE TONIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK FRI. NOT ALL
THAT DRAMATIC WITH THIS CFP...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AT 10 TO
15 KT WITH ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN
A SOLID 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO LITTLE RIVER
INLET DUE TO A FAVORABLE FETCH FOR SEAS TO BUILD. WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...A RELAXED SFC PG ON FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE
WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN WILL
RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT SEAS FRI WILL
RUN 2 TO 3 FT. THE ENE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL
OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING FRI.

A COOL NE WIND SURGE WILL OCCUR LATER FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY NOSES DOWN THE EAST COAST TO THE ILM CWA.
FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...LOOK FOR WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO
POSSIBLY 20 KT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND SOUTH OF THE
CAPE...10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE E-SE SAT NIGHT
DUE TO THE BREAK FROM THE SFC RIDGING FROM THE NORTH. THE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT WIND SPEEDS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS SAT THRU
SAT NIGHT WILL ELEVATE TO 3 TO 4 FT CAPE FEAR NORTH...AND HOLD AT
3 FT OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPE. WIND DRIVEN 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS
TO DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS SAT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUN
AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN HEADING INTO TUES.

SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN BUT WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT OF THE
S-SW. WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS MON AFTN
BUT THEN DECREASING HEADING INTO TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 280909
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
509 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSTABLE AIR AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AID THE STRONGER CONVECTION TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND
OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY ENDING THE PCPN THREAT AND ALLOWING DRIER
AIR TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME FRI HIGHS WILL PUSH WELL
INTO THE 80S DUE TO A W TO NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TEMPORARILY BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH CLOUDINESS AND PCPN. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS LATE MON ALLOWING THE AREA TO DRY OUT ON TUE AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT REACHED ITS
FURTHEST SOUTHERN EXTENT...HAVING STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
VA-NC STATE LINE. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. THE STALLED FRONT TO RETURN BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

FOR TODAY...THE FA REMAINS PRIMED ATLEAST INSTABILITY-WISE...WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3500...AND JUST ENOUGH AVBL
MOISTURE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT HAS PLACED LIMITS ON MOISTURE TAPPING. WHAT THE FA IS
WAITING FOR ARE DYNAMICS TO KICK START THE PCPN ACTIVITY. THE
MODELS...EVEN THIS CLOSE IN TIME...ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN MAINLY
THE TIMING OF THESE ARE ANY FEATURES THAT PRODUCE UVVS ACROSS THE
FA TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND THEIR TIMING. THE
WEAKEST OF THE AVBL DYNAMICS FOR PCPN FORMATION WILL BE THE SEA
BREEZE. THE 1ST AND STRONGEST OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER S/W TROFS
OR VORTS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY TO MID AFTN. THE NEXT 1 WILL BE THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS...HAVE CAPPED THEM BELOW 50 PERCENT AT THEIR
PEAK. PCPN TYPE WILL BE CONVECTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THRU
THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE DAYS
INSOLATION. AND FINALLY...THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRI WILL RESULT IN ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IF ANY.
THIS A RESULT OF MUCH DRIER AIR MID AND UPPER LEVELS WORKING INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LOWERING PWS TO BELOW 1 INCH BY FRI
DAYBREAK...AFTER PEAKING AROUND 1.50 INCHES DURING TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...THE TREND FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY WILL BE
FOR A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SE STATES.

FOR FRI HOWEVER...THE W TO NW FLOW THRU THE ATM COLUMN...AND THUS
A DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS...WILL AID MAX TEMPS
ON FRI THAT REACH THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. THE W-NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO SCOUR OUT ANY CLOUDINESS OR MOISTURE ALOFT BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE ILM CWA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AID THE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES...TO TEMPORARILY RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FA LATE FRI
NIGHT THRU SAT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A NE-ENE COOL SURGE PEAKING
DURING SAT. NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS SURGE DUE TO A DRY ATM
COLUMN UNDER W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE ILM CWA SAT NIGHT ENDING THE COOL SURGE OF AIR. IN ADDITION...
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE SW
AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY. RETURN SE FLOW AT THE
SFC...WILL START PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE FA.
HAVE HELD POPS AT BAY UNTIL DAYTIME SUN. STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST OUT TO SEA. A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. PCP
WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES SUN AFTN. OVERALL
EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR LATE MON INTO TUES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ECMWF MUCH WETTER FOR MIDWEEK WITH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH AND CONVECTION FLARING UP OVER THE
CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MUCH BROADER MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WITH BEST CHC OF PCP TO THE SOUTH WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE. EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TUES INTO WED.

TEMPS IN THE 80S SUN INTO MON WILL COOL MON NIGHT INTO TUES
BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST
PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AGAIN TUES INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF
MVFR/IFR LOW STRATUS DECK POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS NEAR
DAYBREAK. ENOUGH TO MENTION HERE BUT TOO ISOLATED TO PLACE IN THE
TAFS. MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
THRU EARLY THIS EVENING FROM THE DAYS CONVECTION.

BROKEN LINE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STALLED FRONT...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. A STRAY SHOWER
MAY AFFECT COASTAL MYR AND CRE TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BUT
TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. SW WINDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ENOUGH TO DETOUR
FOG FORMATION AT THE SFC THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL EMBEDDED S/W
TROFS OR VORTS WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HRS...AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH AVBL MOISTURE
AND THE DAYS INSOLATION RESULTING IN MODEST
INSTABILITY...2500-3500 PROGGED CAPE...WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
CONVECTION RUNNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. WILL TIME THE STRONGER CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INLAND
TERMINALS TO MID TO LATE THIS AFTN COASTAL TERMINALS. LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FROM MID TO LATE THIS EVENING. SFC PG WILL
REMAIN TIGHTENED...PRODUCING SW 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
THIS AFTN. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS
SUBSIDING TO 5 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SHOWERS EARLY FRI MORNING
WILL END FOLLOWED BY A CFP. VFR DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MVFR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE FROM
THE ILM COASTAL WATERS...WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE ILM WATERS
TODAY. THE PINCHED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A NEARLY SOLID SW 15 KT
WIND ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTN...AND
TRACK TO OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE TONIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK FRI. NOT ALL
THAT DRAMATIC WITH THIS CFP...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AT 10 TO
15 KT WITH ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN
A SOLID 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO LITTLE RIVER
INLET DUE TO A FAVORABLE FETCH FOR SEAS TO BUILD. WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...A RELAXED SFC PG ON FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE
WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN WILL
RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT SEAS FRI WILL
RUN 2 TO 3 FT. THE ENE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL
OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING FRI.

A COOL NE WIND SURGE WILL OCCUR LATER FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY NOSES DOWN THE EAST COAST TO THE ILM CWA.
FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...LOOK FOR WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO
POSSIBLY 20 KT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND SOUTH OF THE
CAPE...10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE E-SE SAT NIGHT
DUE TO THE BREAK FROM THE SFC RIDGING FROM THE NORTH. THE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT WIND SPEEDS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS SAT THRU
SAT NIGHT WILL ELEVATE TO 3 TO 4 FT CAPE FEAR NORTH...AND HOLD AT
3 FT OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPE. WIND DRIVEN 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS
TO DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS SAT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUN
AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN HEADING INTO TUES.

SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN BUT WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT OF THE
S-SW. WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS MON AFTN
BUT THEN DECREASING HEADING INTO TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 280745
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
345 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY
IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...THE
NOCTURNAL JET IS GEARING UP PER LATEST KLTX VWP DATA. THIS WILL
LIKELY SEAL THE DEAL FOR A FOG-FREE NIGHT AND VERY MILD MINIMUMS.
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED BUT HAS STRUGGLED...UNDERSTANDABLE
WHEN VIEWING VAPOR DATA REVEALING THE DRY AIR ALOFT. UPPER AIR
DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ABOVE 500 MB OVERHEAD...AND EARLIER EVEN WITH A GOOD LOW-LEVEL
BOOST FROM THE INLAND MARCHING SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE CONVECTION
HAS NOT SUSTAINED ITSELF WELL. AS THERMALS WANE SO WILL CONVECTION
AS MOISTURE ALOFT REMAINS IN LIMITED SUPPLY OVERNIGHT. A SOLID SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC WINDS TO
REGAIN COMPLETE CONTROL OF WIND DIRECTION IN THE MID-LATE EVENING
FROM S-SSE TO SSW-SW. SSTS PARTIALLY INFLUENTIAL OVERNIGHT WILL
HOLD MINIMUMS ALONG AND NEAR THE SEA AT ELEVATED READINGS NEAR 70.
INLAND LOWS 64-68. PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER NOCTURNAL LOW-
LEVEL WIND JET WILL TRANSPIRE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF KLTX
VWP REGISTERS 40 KT AT 1 KFT BY 1Z/9P. THIS WILL VERY LIKELY PUT
THE KABASH ON MIST OR FOG FORMATION AS MIXING AND WARMTH REMAIN IN
GOOD SUPPLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO TODAY. WHAT SHOULD CHANGE IS A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AROUND NOON. THIS
DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE A BIT FASTER IN TODAY`S 12Z MODELS THAN IT
WAS A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND I AM CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE
OVER FORECASTING POPS SOMEWHAT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
OFFSHORE RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING...PEAKING IN COVERAGE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT
40-50 PERCENT.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW...MAINLY TIED TO THE 30 KNOT
WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MID-LEVELS. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED
ACROSS THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE
THRESHOLD VALUE AT WHICH I START TO TAKE NOTICE. SPC IS MAINTAINING
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS A VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF
THE SE UNITED STATES INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...PERHAPS WORKING ON LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE 850-600 MB LAYER. POPS 30-40
PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE MAY BE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WELL INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE DOWN THIS WAY
DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BLEED INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
WITH POPS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING FRIDAY BUT NO COLD ADVECTION YET LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND! BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT A BETTER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST OUT TO SEA. A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. PCP
WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES SUN AFTN. OVERALL
EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. OVERALL
EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR LATE MON INTO TUES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ECMWF MUCH WETTER FOR MIDWEEK WITH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH AND CONVECTION FLARING UP OVER THE
CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MUCH BROADER MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WITH BEST CHC OF PCP TO THE SOUTH WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE. EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TUES INTO WED.

TEMPS IN THE 80S SUN INTO MON WILL COOL MON NIGHT INTO TUES
BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST
PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AGAIN TUES INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
BRIEF MVFR/IFR LOW STRATUS DECK POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS
NEAR DAYBREAK. ENOUGH TO MENTION HERE BUT TOO ISOLATED TO PLACE
IN THE TAFS. MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR LATE THIS
MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING FROM THE DAYS CONVECTION.

BROKEN LINE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STALLED FRONT...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. A STRAY SHOWER
MAY AFFECT COASTAL MYR AND CRE TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BUT
TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. SW WINDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ENOUGH TO DETOUR
FOG FORMATION AT THE SFC THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL EMBEDDED S/W
TROFS OR VORTS WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HRS...AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH AVBL MOISTURE
AND THE DAYS INSOLATION RESULTING IN MODEST
INSTABILITY...2500-3500 PROGGED CAPE...WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
CONVECTION RUNNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. WILL TIME THE STRONGER CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INLAND
TERMINALS TO MID TO LATE THIS AFTN COASTAL TERMINALS. LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FROM MID TO LATE THIS EVENING. SFC PG WILL
REMAIN TIGHTENED...PRODUCING SW 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
THIS AFTN. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS
SUBSIDING TO 5 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SHOWERS EARLY FRI MORNING
WILL END FOLLOWED BY A CFP. VFR DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MVFR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...A BUMPY 3 FEET AS WANING 10 SECOND E
WAVE ENERGY IS BEING TAKEN OVER BY SSW WAVES EVERY 4-5 SECONDS
MAKING FOR MODERATE BUMPINESS ON TOP OF A ROLLING LOW AMPLITUDE
SWELL. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH THE MIDDLE EVENING
UPDATES. SEAS HOLDING AROUND 3 FEET INTO DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FARTHER OFF
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH A HEALTHY
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR THE BEACHES. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ENSURE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE BEACHES AND OFFSHORE.

THE WEAKENING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN TWO
STAGES: A WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY...FOLLOWED VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BY A FRONTAL SURGE
FROM THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUN
AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN HEADING INTO TUES.

SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN BUT WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT OF THE
S-SW. WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS MON AFTN
BUT THEN DECREASING HEADING INTO TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 280453
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1253 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY
IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...THE
NOCTURNAL JET IS GEARING UP PER LATEST KLTX VWP DATA. THIS WILL
LIKELY SEAL THE DEAL FOR A FOG-FREE NIGHT AND VERY MILD MINIMUMS.
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED BUT HAS STRUGGLED...UNDERSTANDABLE
WHEN VIEWING VAPOR DATA REVEALING THE DRY AIR ALOFT. UPPER AIR
DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ABOVE 500 MB OVERHEAD...AND EARLIER EVEN WITH A GOOD LOW-LEVEL
BOOST FROM THE INLAND MARCHING SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE CONVECTION
HAS NOT SUSTAINED ITSELF WELL. AS THERMALS WANE SO WILL CONVECTION
AS MOISTURE ALOFT REMAINS IN LIMITED SUPPLY OVERNIGHT. A SOLID SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC WINDS TO
REGAIN COMPLETE CONTROL OF WIND DIRECTION IN THE MID-LATE EVENING
FROM S-SSE TO SSW-SW. SSTS PARTIALLY INFLUENTIAL OVERNIGHT WILL
HOLD MINIMUMS ALONG AND NEAR THE SEA AT ELEVATED READINGS NEAR 70.
INLAND LOWS 64-68. PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER NOCTURNAL LOW-
LEVEL WIND JET WILL TRANSPIRE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF KLTX
VWP REGISTERS 40 KT AT 1 KFT BY 1Z/9P. THIS WILL VERY LIKELY PUT
THE KABASH ON MIST OR FOG FORMATION AS MIXING AND WARMTH REMAIN IN
GOOD SUPPLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO TODAY. WHAT SHOULD CHANGE IS A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AROUND NOON. THIS
DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE A BIT FASTER IN TODAY`S 12Z MODELS THAN IT
WAS A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND I AM CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE
OVER FORCASTING POPS SOMEWHAT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING
OFFSHORE RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING...PEAKING IN COVERAGE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT
40-50 PERCENT.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW...MAINLY TIED TO THE 30 KNOT
WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MID-LEVELS. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED
ACROSS THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE
THRESHOLD VALUE AT WHICH I START TO TAKE NOTICE. SPC IS MAINTAINING
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS A VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF
THE SE UNITED STATES INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...PERHAPS WORKING ON LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE 850-600 MB LAYER. POPS 30-40
PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE MAY BE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WELL INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE DOWN THIS WAY
DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BLEED INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
WITH POPS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING FRIDAY BUT NO COLD ADVECTION YET LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND! BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT A BETTER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SUBTLE
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ONCE
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT WEST WITH
TROUGHING TO THE EAST. GUIDANCE WAVERING BACK AND FORTH ON A
DECENT RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT WE ARE MAINTAINING
THE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HELP SOME AREAS RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH A MUCH
WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER. HELD
ONTO THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO ADDRESS. TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
BRIEF MVFR/IFR LOW STRATUS DECK POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS
NEAR DAYBREAK. ENOUGH TO MENTION HERE BUT TOO ISOLATED TO PLACE
IN THE TAFS. MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR LATE THIS
MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING FROM THE DAYS CONVECTION.

BROKEN LINE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STALLED FRONT...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. A STRAY SHOWER
MAY AFFECT COASTAL MYR AND CRE TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BUT
TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. SW WINDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ENOUGH TO DETOUR
FOG FORMATION AT THE SFC THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL EMBEDDED S/W
TROFS OR VORTS WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HRS...AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH AVBL MOISTURE
AND THE DAYS INSOLATION RESULTING IN MODEST
INSTABILITY...2500-3500 PROGGED CAPE...WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
CONVECTION RUNNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. WILL TIME THE STRONGER CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INLAND
TERMINALS TO MID TO LATE THIS AFTN COASTAL TERMINALS. LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FROM MID TO LATE THIS EVENING. SFC PG WILL
REMAIN TIGHTENED...PRODUCING SW 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
THIS AFTN. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS
SUBSIDING TO 5 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SHOWERS EARLY FRI MORNING
WILL END FOLLOWED BY A CFP. VFR DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MVFR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...A BUMPY 3 FEET AS WANING 10 SECOND E
WAVE ENERGY IS BEING TAKEN OVER BY SSW WAVES EVERY 4-5 SECONDS
MAKING FOR MODERATE BUMPINESS ON TOP OF A ROLLING LOW AMPLITUDE
SWELL. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH THE MIDDLE EVENING
UPDATES. SEAS HOLDING AROUND 3 FEET INTO DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH A HEALTHY AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR THE BEACHES. THERE SHOULD BE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ENSURE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAKE IT DOWN TO THE BEACHES AND OFFSHORE.

THE WEAKENING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN TWO
STAGES: A WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY...FOLLOWED VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BY A FRONTAL SURGE
FROM THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY. A TYPICAL UPTICK
AHEAD OF A FRONT MONDAY AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY BRIEFLY ON THE HIGHER END OF A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. OTHERWISE A GENERAL 10-15 RANGE WILL SUFFICE. NO SURPRISING
TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO SEAS WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 280130
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
930 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY
IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...THE
NOCTURNAL JET IS GEARING UP PER LATEST KLTX VWP DATA. THIS WILL
LIKELY SEAL THE DEAL FOR A FOG-FREE NIGHT AND VERY MILD MINIMUMS.
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED BUT HAS STRUGGLED...UNDERSTANDABLE
WHEN VIEWING VAPOR DATA REVEALING THE DRY AIR ALOFT. UPPER AIR
DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ABOVE 500 MB OVERHEAD...AND EARLIER EVEN WITH A GOOD LOW-LEVEL
BOOST FROM THE INLAND MARCHING SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE CONVECTION
HAS NOT SUSTAINED ITSELF WELL. AS THERMALS WANE SO WILL CONVECTION
AS MOISTURE ALOFT REMAINS IN LIMITED SUPPLY OVERNIGHT. A SOLID SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC WINDS TO
REGAIN COMPLETE CONTROL OF WIND DIRECTION IN THE MID-LATE EVENING
FROM S-SSE TO SSW-SW. SSTS PARTIALLY INFLUENTIAL OVERNIGHT WILL
HOLD MINIMUMS ALONG AND NEAR THE SEA AT ELEVATED READINGS NEAR 70.
INLAND LOWS 64-68. PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER NOCTURNAL LOW-
LEVEL WIND JET WILL TRANSPIRE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF KLTX
VWP REGISTERS 40 KT AT 1 KFT BY 1Z/9P. THIS WILL VERY LIKELY PUT
THE KABASH ON MIST OR FOG FORMATION AS MIXING AND WARMTH REMAIN IN
GOOD SUPPLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO TODAY. WHAT SHOULD CHANGE IS A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AROUND NOON. THIS
DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE A BIT FASTER IN TODAY`S 12Z MODELS THAN IT
WAS A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND I AM CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE
OVERFORECASTING POPS SOMEWHAT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
MORNING...PEAKING IN COVERAGE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT 40-50
PERCENT.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW...MAINLY TIED TO THE 30 KNOT
WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MID-LEVELS. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED
ACROSS THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE
THRESHOLD VALUE AT WHICH I START TO TAKE NOTICE. SPC IS MAINTAINING
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS A VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF
THE SE UNITED STATES INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...PERHAPS WORKING ON LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE 850-600 MB LAYER. POPS 30-40
PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE MAY BE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WELL INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE DOWN THIS WAY
DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BLEED INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
WITH POPS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING FRIDAY BUT NO COLD ADVECTION YET LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND! BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT A BETTER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SUBTLE
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ONCE
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT WEST WITH
TROUGHING TO THE EAST. GUIDANCE WAVERING BACK AND FORTH ON A
DECENT RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT WE ARE MAINTAINING
THE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HELP SOME AREAS RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH A MUCH
WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER. HELD
ONTO THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO ADDRESS. TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRETTY QUIET NIGHT OVERALL AS THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ON
THE NATIONAL RADAR WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS WELL AS THE SURFACE WILL BE
TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT FOG. CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN TERMINALS
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. TIME HEIGHT STILL SHOWS SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS DUE TO A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL IMPEDE STORM FORMATION
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY OVERCOME THIS...HOWEVER
CONVECTION COVERAGE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. VFR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...A BUMPY 3 FEET AS WANING 10 SECOND E
WAVE ENERGY IS BEING TAKEN OVER BY SSW WAVES EVERY 4-5 SECONDS
MAKING FOR MODERATE BUMPINESS ON TOP OF A ROLLING LOW AMPLITUDE
SWELL. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH THE MIDDLE EVENING
UPDATES. SEAS HOLDING AROUND 3 FEET INTO DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH A HEALTHY AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR THE BEACHES. THERE SHOULD BE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ENSURE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAKE IT DOWN TO THE BEACHES AND OFFSHORE.

THE WEAKENING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN TWO
STAGES: A WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY...FOLLOWED VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BY A FRONTAL SURGE
FROM THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY. A TYPICAL UPTICK
AHEAD OF A FRONT MONDAY AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY BRIEFLY ON THE HIGHER END OF A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. OTHERWISE A GENERAL 10-15 RANGE WILL SUFFICE. NO SURPRISING
TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO SEAS WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 280130
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
930 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY
IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...THE
NOCTURNAL JET IS GEARING UP PER LATEST KLTX VWP DATA. THIS WILL
LIKELY SEAL THE DEAL FOR A FOG-FREE NIGHT AND VERY MILD MINIMUMS.
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED BUT HAS STRUGGLED...UNDERSTANDABLE
WHEN VIEWING VAPOR DATA REVEALING THE DRY AIR ALOFT. UPPER AIR
DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ABOVE 500 MB OVERHEAD...AND EARLIER EVEN WITH A GOOD LOW-LEVEL
BOOST FROM THE INLAND MARCHING SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE CONVECTION
HAS NOT SUSTAINED ITSELF WELL. AS THERMALS WANE SO WILL CONVECTION
AS MOISTURE ALOFT REMAINS IN LIMITED SUPPLY OVERNIGHT. A SOLID SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC WINDS TO
REGAIN COMPLETE CONTROL OF WIND DIRECTION IN THE MID-LATE EVENING
FROM S-SSE TO SSW-SW. SSTS PARTIALLY INFLUENTIAL OVERNIGHT WILL
HOLD MINIMUMS ALONG AND NEAR THE SEA AT ELEVATED READINGS NEAR 70.
INLAND LOWS 64-68. PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER NOCTURNAL LOW-
LEVEL WIND JET WILL TRANSPIRE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF KLTX
VWP REGISTERS 40 KT AT 1 KFT BY 1Z/9P. THIS WILL VERY LIKELY PUT
THE KABASH ON MIST OR FOG FORMATION AS MIXING AND WARMTH REMAIN IN
GOOD SUPPLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO TODAY. WHAT SHOULD CHANGE IS A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AROUND NOON. THIS
DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE A BIT FASTER IN TODAY`S 12Z MODELS THAN IT
WAS A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND I AM CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE
OVERFORECASTING POPS SOMEWHAT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
MORNING...PEAKING IN COVERAGE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT 40-50
PERCENT.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW...MAINLY TIED TO THE 30 KNOT
WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MID-LEVELS. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED
ACROSS THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE
THRESHOLD VALUE AT WHICH I START TO TAKE NOTICE. SPC IS MAINTAINING
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS A VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF
THE SE UNITED STATES INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...PERHAPS WORKING ON LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE 850-600 MB LAYER. POPS 30-40
PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE MAY BE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WELL INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE DOWN THIS WAY
DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BLEED INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
WITH POPS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING FRIDAY BUT NO COLD ADVECTION YET LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND! BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT A BETTER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SUBTLE
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ONCE
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT WEST WITH
TROUGHING TO THE EAST. GUIDANCE WAVERING BACK AND FORTH ON A
DECENT RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT WE ARE MAINTAINING
THE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HELP SOME AREAS RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH A MUCH
WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER. HELD
ONTO THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO ADDRESS. TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRETTY QUIET NIGHT OVERALL AS THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ON
THE NATIONAL RADAR WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS WELL AS THE SURFACE WILL BE
TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT FOG. CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN TERMINALS
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. TIME HEIGHT STILL SHOWS SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS DUE TO A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL IMPEDE STORM FORMATION
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY OVERCOME THIS...HOWEVER
CONVECTION COVERAGE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. VFR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...A BUMPY 3 FEET AS WANING 10 SECOND E
WAVE ENERGY IS BEING TAKEN OVER BY SSW WAVES EVERY 4-5 SECONDS
MAKING FOR MODERATE BUMPINESS ON TOP OF A ROLLING LOW AMPLITUDE
SWELL. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH THE MIDDLE EVENING
UPDATES. SEAS HOLDING AROUND 3 FEET INTO DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH A HEALTHY AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR THE BEACHES. THERE SHOULD BE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ENSURE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAKE IT DOWN TO THE BEACHES AND OFFSHORE.

THE WEAKENING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN TWO
STAGES: A WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY...FOLLOWED VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BY A FRONTAL SURGE
FROM THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY. A TYPICAL UPTICK
AHEAD OF A FRONT MONDAY AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY BRIEFLY ON THE HIGHER END OF A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. OTHERWISE A GENERAL 10-15 RANGE WILL SUFFICE. NO SURPRISING
TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO SEAS WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 272240
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY
IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 545 PM WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED BUT HAS
STRUGGLED...UNDERSTANDABLE WHEN VIEWING VAPOR DATA REVEALING THE
DRY AIR ALOFT. UPPER AIR DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE 500 MB OVERHEAD...AND EARLIER
EVEN WITH A GOOD LOW-LEVEL BOOST FROM THE INLAND MARCHING SEA
BREEZE FRONT...THE CONVECTION HAS NOT SUSTAINED ITSELF WELL. AS
THERMALS WANE SO WILL CONVECTION AS MOISTURE ALOFT REMAINS IN
LIMITED SUPPLY OVERNIGHT. A SOLID SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO
WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC WINDS TO REGAIN COMPLETE CONTROL OF
WIND DIRECTION IN THE MID-LATE EVENING FROM S-SSE TO SSW-SW. SSTS
PARTIALLY INFLUENTIAL OVERNIGHT WILL HOLD MINIMUMS ALONG AND NEAR
THE SEA AT ELEVATED READINGS NEAR 70. INLAND LOWS 64-68.
PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND JET WILL
TRANSPIRE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF KLTX VWP REGISTERS 40 KT
AT 1 KFT BY 1Z/9P. THIS WILL VERY LIKELY PUT THE KABASH ON MIST OR
FOG FORMATION AS MIXING AND WARMTH REMAIN IN GOOD SUPPLY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO TODAY. WHAT SHOULD CHANGE IS A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AROUND NOON. THIS
DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE A BIT FASTER IN TODAY`S 12Z MODELS THAN IT
WAS A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND I AM CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE
OVERFORECASTING POPS SOMEWHAT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
MORNING...PEAKING IN COVERAGE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT 40-50
PERCENT.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW...MAINLY TIED TO THE 30 KNOT
WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MID-LEVELS. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED
ACROSS THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE
THRESHOLD VALUE AT WHICH I START TO TAKE NOTICE. SPC IS MAINTAINING
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS A VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF
THE SE UNITED STATES INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...PERHAPS WORKING ON LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE 850-600 MB LAYER. POPS 30-40
PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE MAY BE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WELL INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE DOWN THIS WAY
DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BLEED INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
WITH POPS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING FRIDAY BUT NO COLD ADVECTION YET LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND! BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT A BETTER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SUBTLE
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ONCE
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT WEST WITH
TROUGHING TO THE EAST. GUIDANCE WAVERING BACK AND FORTH ON A
DECENT RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT WE ARE MAINTAINING
THE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HELP SOME AREAS RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH A MUCH
WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER. HELD
ONTO THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO ADDRESS. TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRETTY QUIET NIGHT OVERALL AS THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ON
THE NATIONAL RADAR WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS WELL AS THE SURFACE WILL BE
TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT FOG. CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN TERMINALS
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. TIME HEIGHT STILL SHOWS SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS DUE TO A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL IMPEDE STORM FORMATION
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY OVERCOME THIS...HOWEVER
CONVECTION COVERAGE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. VFR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 PM WEDNESDAY...AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...A
BUMPY 3 FEET AS 9 SECOND E WAVE ENERGY AND SSW MODERATE CHOP SHARE
NEAR EQUAL WAVE ENERGIES...THUS MODERATE BUMPINESS ON TOP OF A
ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH THE EARLY EVENING
UPDATES. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SEAS CURRENTLY MEASURED AROUND 3 FEET CONSIST MAINLY OF 5-SECOND
WIND WAVES WITH A SMALLER CONTRIBUTION FROM A 10-11 SECOND
EASTERLY SWELL. WHILE 3 FEET DOESN`T SOUND TOO LARGE...5-SECOND
PERIODS ARE QUITE CHOPPY CAN BE PUNISHING TO SMALLER BOATS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FARTHER OFF
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH A HEALTHY
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR THE BEACHES. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ENSURE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE BEACHES AND OFFSHORE.

THE WEAKENING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN TWO
STAGES: A WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY...FOLLOWED VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BY A FRONTAL SURGE
FROM THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY. A TYPICAL UPTICK
AHEAD OF A FRONT MONDAY AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY BRIEFLY ON THE HIGHER END OF A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. OTHERWISE A GENERAL 10-15 RANGE WILL SUFFICE. NO SURPRISING
TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO SEAS WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/SHK/MJC





000
FXUS62 KILM 272145
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
545 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY
IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 545 PM WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED BUT HAS
STRUGGLED...UNDERSTANDABLE WHEN VIEWING VAPOR DATA REVEALING THE
DRY AIR ALOFT. UPPER AIR DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE 500 MB OVERHEAD...AND EARLIER
EVEN WITH A GOOD LOW-LEVEL BOOST FROM THE INLAND MARCHING SEA
BREEZE FRONT...THE CONVECTION HAS NOT SUSTAINED ITSELF WELL. AS
THERMALS WANE SO WILL CONVECTION AS MOISTURE ALOFT REMAINS IN
LIMITED SUPPLY OVERNIGHT. A SOLID SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO
WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC WINDS TO REGAIN COMPLETE CONTROL OF
WIND DIRECTION IN THE MID-LATE EVENING FROM S-SSE TO SSW-SW. SSTS
PARTIALLY INFLUENTIAL OVERNIGHT WILL HOLD MINIMUMS ALONG AND NEAR
THE SEA AT ELEVATED READINGS NEAR 70. INLAND LOWS 64-68.
PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND JET WILL
TRANSPIRE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF KLTX VWP REGISTERS 40 KT
AT 1 KFT BY 1Z/9P. THIS WILL VERY LIKELY PUT THE KABASH ON MIST OR
FOG FORMATION AS MIXING AND WARMTH REMAIN IN GOOD SUPPLY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO TODAY. WHAT SHOULD CHANGE IS A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AROUND NOON. THIS
DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE A BIT FASTER IN TODAY`S 12Z MODELS THAN IT
WAS A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND I AM CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE
OVERFORECASTING POPS SOMEWHAT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
MORNING...PEAKING IN COVERAGE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT 40-50
PERCENT.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW...MAINLY TIED TO THE 30 KNOT
WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MID-LEVELS. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED
ACROSS THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE
THRESHOLD VALUE AT WHICH I START TO TAKE NOTICE. SPC IS MAINTAINING
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS A VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF
THE SE UNITED STATES INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...PERHAPS WORKING ON LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE 850-600 MB LAYER. POPS 30-40
PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE MAY BE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WELL INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE DOWN THIS WAY
DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BLEED INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
WITH POPS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING FRIDAY BUT NO COLD ADVECTION YET LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND! BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT A BETTER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SUBTLE
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ONCE
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT WEST WITH
TROUGHING TO THE EAST. GUIDANCE WAVERING BACK AND FORTH ON A
DECENT RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT WE ARE MAINTAINING
THE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HELP SOME AREAS RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH A MUCH
WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER. HELD
ONTO THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO ADDRESS. TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS VALID PERIOD AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE LOCALLY. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL
PERSIST SW WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS INLAND...20 KTS AT
THE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE LOCAL BACKING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS WELL. SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION FROM LBT/FLO AS CHANCE OF THE
TERMINAL RECEIVING ANY SHOWERS TODAY IS QUITE LOW. WOULD PREFER TO
HANDLE WITH A BRIEF AMD IF NECESSARY FOR ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS THAT
MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT TO 5-10 KTS FROM THE SW...AND SOME MID LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL NOT CREATE
ANY RESTRICTIONS HOWEVER. AFTER DAYBREAK...SW WINDS AGAIN BECOME
GUSTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS AND A MID-LEVEL CIG
FORECAST. SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON THURSDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT
ANY MENTION IN CURRENT TAF SET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. VFR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 PM WEDNESDAY...AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...A
BUMPY 3 FEET AS 9 SECOND E WAVE ENERGY AND SSW MODERATE CHOP SHARE
NEAR EQUAL WAVE ENERGIES...THUS MODERATE BUMPINESS ON TOP OF A
ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH THE EARLY EVENING
UPDATES. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SEAS CURRENTLY MEASURED AROUND 3 FEET CONSIST MAINLY OF 5-SECOND
WIND WAVES WITH A SMALLER CONTRIBUTION FROM A 10-11 SECOND
EASTERLY SWELL. WHILE 3 FEET DOESN`T SOUND TOO LARGE...5-SECOND
PERIODS ARE QUITE CHOPPY CAN BE PUNISHING TO SMALLER BOATS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FARTHER OFF
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH A HEALTHY
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR THE BEACHES. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ENSURE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE BEACHES AND OFFSHORE.

THE WEAKENING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN TWO
STAGES: A WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY...FOLLOWED VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BY A FRONTAL SURGE
FROM THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY. A TYPICAL UPTICK
AHEAD OF A FRONT MONDAY AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY BRIEFLY ON THE HIGHER END OF A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. OTHERWISE A GENERAL 10-15 RANGE WILL SUFFICE. NO SURPRISING
TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO SEAS WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW/DL
MARINE...TRA/SHK/MJC





000
FXUS62 KILM 272145
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
545 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY
IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 545 PM WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED BUT HAS
STRUGGLED...UNDERSTANDABLE WHEN VIEWING VAPOR DATA REVEALING THE
DRY AIR ALOFT. UPPER AIR DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE 500 MB OVERHEAD...AND EARLIER
EVEN WITH A GOOD LOW-LEVEL BOOST FROM THE INLAND MARCHING SEA
BREEZE FRONT...THE CONVECTION HAS NOT SUSTAINED ITSELF WELL. AS
THERMALS WANE SO WILL CONVECTION AS MOISTURE ALOFT REMAINS IN
LIMITED SUPPLY OVERNIGHT. A SOLID SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO
WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC WINDS TO REGAIN COMPLETE CONTROL OF
WIND DIRECTION IN THE MID-LATE EVENING FROM S-SSE TO SSW-SW. SSTS
PARTIALLY INFLUENTIAL OVERNIGHT WILL HOLD MINIMUMS ALONG AND NEAR
THE SEA AT ELEVATED READINGS NEAR 70. INLAND LOWS 64-68.
PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND JET WILL
TRANSPIRE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF KLTX VWP REGISTERS 40 KT
AT 1 KFT BY 1Z/9P. THIS WILL VERY LIKELY PUT THE KABASH ON MIST OR
FOG FORMATION AS MIXING AND WARMTH REMAIN IN GOOD SUPPLY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO TODAY. WHAT SHOULD CHANGE IS A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AROUND NOON. THIS
DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE A BIT FASTER IN TODAY`S 12Z MODELS THAN IT
WAS A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND I AM CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE
OVERFORECASTING POPS SOMEWHAT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
MORNING...PEAKING IN COVERAGE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT 40-50
PERCENT.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW...MAINLY TIED TO THE 30 KNOT
WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MID-LEVELS. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED
ACROSS THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE
THRESHOLD VALUE AT WHICH I START TO TAKE NOTICE. SPC IS MAINTAINING
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS A VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF
THE SE UNITED STATES INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...PERHAPS WORKING ON LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE 850-600 MB LAYER. POPS 30-40
PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE MAY BE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WELL INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE DOWN THIS WAY
DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BLEED INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
WITH POPS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING FRIDAY BUT NO COLD ADVECTION YET LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND! BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT A BETTER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SUBTLE
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ONCE
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT WEST WITH
TROUGHING TO THE EAST. GUIDANCE WAVERING BACK AND FORTH ON A
DECENT RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT WE ARE MAINTAINING
THE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HELP SOME AREAS RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH A MUCH
WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER. HELD
ONTO THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO ADDRESS. TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS VALID PERIOD AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE LOCALLY. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL
PERSIST SW WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS INLAND...20 KTS AT
THE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE LOCAL BACKING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS WELL. SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION FROM LBT/FLO AS CHANCE OF THE
TERMINAL RECEIVING ANY SHOWERS TODAY IS QUITE LOW. WOULD PREFER TO
HANDLE WITH A BRIEF AMD IF NECESSARY FOR ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS THAT
MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT TO 5-10 KTS FROM THE SW...AND SOME MID LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL NOT CREATE
ANY RESTRICTIONS HOWEVER. AFTER DAYBREAK...SW WINDS AGAIN BECOME
GUSTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS AND A MID-LEVEL CIG
FORECAST. SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON THURSDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT
ANY MENTION IN CURRENT TAF SET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. VFR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 PM WEDNESDAY...AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...A
BUMPY 3 FEET AS 9 SECOND E WAVE ENERGY AND SSW MODERATE CHOP SHARE
NEAR EQUAL WAVE ENERGIES...THUS MODERATE BUMPINESS ON TOP OF A
ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH THE EARLY EVENING
UPDATES. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SEAS CURRENTLY MEASURED AROUND 3 FEET CONSIST MAINLY OF 5-SECOND
WIND WAVES WITH A SMALLER CONTRIBUTION FROM A 10-11 SECOND
EASTERLY SWELL. WHILE 3 FEET DOESN`T SOUND TOO LARGE...5-SECOND
PERIODS ARE QUITE CHOPPY CAN BE PUNISHING TO SMALLER BOATS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FARTHER OFF
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH A HEALTHY
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR THE BEACHES. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ENSURE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE BEACHES AND OFFSHORE.

THE WEAKENING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN TWO
STAGES: A WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY...FOLLOWED VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BY A FRONTAL SURGE
FROM THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY. A TYPICAL UPTICK
AHEAD OF A FRONT MONDAY AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY BRIEFLY ON THE HIGHER END OF A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. OTHERWISE A GENERAL 10-15 RANGE WILL SUFFICE. NO SURPRISING
TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO SEAS WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW/DL
MARINE...TRA/SHK/MJC





000
FXUS62 KILM 271917
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
317 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY
IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...SO FAR ONLY A PAIR OF SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF WILMINGTON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS MANY MORE TOWERING CUMULUS DOTTING THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. WE
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A WARM
AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR +14C
ARE ABOUT 4C ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT AS THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN 1000-2500 FEET ALOFT WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS NEAR 35 KNOTS
AT 1500 FEET. THESE LOW LEVEL JETS TEND TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TURBULENT WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING QUITE WARM AS A RESULT.
TONIGHT`S LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER
60S NEAR THE COAST...11-13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO TODAY. WHAT SHOULD CHANGE IS A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AROUND NOON. THIS
DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE A BIT FASTER IN TODAY`S 12Z MODELS THAN IT
WAS A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND I AM CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE
OVERFORECASTING POPS SOMEWHAT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
MORNING...PEAKING IN COVERAGE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT 40-50
PERCENT.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW...MAINLY TIED TO THE 30 KNOT
WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MID-LEVELS. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED
ACROSS THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE
THRESHOLD VALUE AT WHICH I START TO TAKE NOTICE. SPC IS MAINTAINING
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS A VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF
THE SE UNITED STATES INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...PERHAPS WORKING ON LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE 850-600 MB LAYER. POPS 30-40
PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE MAY BE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WELL INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE DOWN THIS WAY
DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BLEED INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
WITH POPS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING FRIDAY BUT NO COLD ADVECTION YET LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND! BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT A BETTER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SUBTLE
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ONCE
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT WEST WITH
TROUGHING TO THE EAST. GUIDANCE WAVERING BACK AND FORTH ON A
DECENT RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT WE ARE MAINTAINING
THE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HELP SOME AREAS RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH A MUCH
WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER. HELD
ONTO THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO ADDRESS. TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS VALID PERIOD AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE LOCALLY. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL
PERSIST SW WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS INLAND...20 KTS AT
THE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE LOCAL BACKING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS WELL. SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION FROM LBT/FLO AS CHANCE OF THE
TERMINAL RECEIVING ANY SHOWERS TODAY IS QUITE LOW. WOULD PREFER TO
HANDLE WITH A BRIEF AMD IF NECESSARY FOR ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS THAT
MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT TO 5-10 KTS FROM THE SW...AND SOME MID LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL NOT CREATE
ANY RESTRICTIONS HOWEVER. AFTER DAYBREAK...SW WINDS AGAIN BECOME
GUSTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS AND A MID-LEVEL CIG
FORECAST. SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON THURSDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT
ANY MENTION IN CURRENT TAF SET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. VFR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. A STRONG SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALREADY PRODUCED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 24 KT AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. WINDS
COULD INCREASE ANOTHER COUPLE OF KNOTS BETWEEN NOW AND 6 PM...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH DOWN TO A STEADY 15 KNOTS BY LATE THIS EVENING AS
INLAND-TO-MARINE AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE EVEN OUT. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.

SEAS CURRENTLY MEASURED AROUND 3 FEET CONSIST MAINLY OF 5-SECOND
WIND WAVES WITH A SMALLER CONTRIBUTION FROM A 10-11 SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL. WHILE 3 FEET DOESN`T SOUND TOO LARGE...5-SECOND PERIODS ARE
QUITE CHOPPY CAN BE PUNISHING TO SMALLER BOATS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FARTHER OFF
THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH A HEALTHY
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR THE BEACHES. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ENSURE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE BEACHES AND OFFSHORE.

THE WEAKENING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN TWO
STAGES: A WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY...FOLLOWED VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BY A FRONTAL SURGE
FROM THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY. A TYPICAL UPTICK
AHEAD OF A FRONT MONDAY AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY BRIEFLY ON THE HIGHER END OF A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. OTHERWISE A GENERAL 10-15 RANGE WILL SUFFICE. NO SURPRISING
TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO SEAS WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 271724
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
124 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TODAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN.
A RAINY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SEABREEZE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
ITSELF ON SATELLITE AND RADAR AS A ZONE OF ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
COASTAL HORRY COUNTY...CENTRAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY...AND NORTHERN NEW
HANOVER COUNTY. REGIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY SEE
ESSENTIALLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS BUILDING INLAND
AND I STILL EXPECT TO SEE CUMULUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FIRE UP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...

IT`S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE SUMMER! HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER BERMUDA WILL MAINTAIN A WARM SOUTHWEST WIND
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR +14C THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN...AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BUOYS SHOW AIR TEMPS
ACROSS THE WATER ARE STILL AROUND 70 NEARSHORE AND THIS RELATIVELY
CHILLY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE BEACHES QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN INLAND
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EFFECT IS MOST PRONOUNCED ON THE SOUTH-
FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY
WON`T BUDGE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS.

LARGE INLAND-TO-OFFSHORE AIR TEMP DIFFERENCES SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A HEFTY SEABREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. VERY SIMILARLY TO
WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH AT THE
BEACHES BY MID AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 25 MPH.

THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING CONFIRMS WE SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER
OF 750-1000 J/KG. THERE ARE NO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ASSIST
IN LIFTING...HOWEVER THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION PLUS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING NEAR THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO KICK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM LATER
TODAY. FORECAST POPS REMAIN AT 20 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE FA
DURING THU. MID-LEVELS EMBEDDED S/W TROUGHS OR VORTS TO PUSH
ACROSS THE FA LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK
LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...MOVING OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE
THU NIGHT. POPS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY THU
AFTN AND WELL INTO THU NIGHT. THE FORCING AND UVVS FROM THE MID
LEVEL TROUGHS WILL BE WANING AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE FA LATE
THU...BUT COMBINED WITH THE DAYS HEATING AND RESULTING INCREASED
INSTABILITY IE. PROGGED 2000-2500 CAPE...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST
UP TO 45 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE EXITING LOW OFF THE OUTER
BANKS WILL HELP DRAG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE FA
DURING FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE DOWN
THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S FRI NIGHT. USED A BLEND FOR MAX AND MIN
TEMPS THIS PERIOD...AND DISREGARDED THE HIGH GFS MAX TEMPS FOR
THU...IE. 90 FOR LBT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO NC
FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER HOLDING
ON WHILE MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE PRESENT TO KEEP
SHOWERS AT BAY ON SATURDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE
S-SW THROUGH SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD AFFECT
THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN SUN INTO MONDAY
WITH PCP WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM AN INCH EARLY SUNDAY UP TO
1.5 INCHES BY LATE SUN INTO MON. OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AND BEST CHC OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED SHOWERS SUN AFTN AHEAD
OF SYSTEM...BUT MOST SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL COME ON MONDAY. LOOKS
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ON TUES AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH BUT OVERALL
EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR TUES INTO WED.
TEMPS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST PLACES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND RELATIVELY COOLER
AGAIN TUES INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS VALID PERIOD AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE LOCALLY. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL
PERSIST SW WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS INLAND...20 KTS AT
THE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE LOCAL BACKING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS WELL. SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION FROM LBT/FLO AS CHANCE OF THE
TERMINAL RECEIVING ANY SHOWERS TODAY IS QUITE LOW. WOULD PREFER TO
HANDLE WITH A BRIEF AMD IF NECESSARY FOR ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS THAT
MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT TO 5-10 KTS FROM THE SW...AND SOME MID LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL NOT CREATE
ANY RESTRICTIONS HOWEVER. AFTER DAYBREAK...SW WINDS AGAIN BECOME
GUSTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS AND A MID-LEVEL CIG
FORECAST. SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON THURSDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT
ANY MENTION IN CURRENT TAF SET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. VFR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SEABREEZE IS ONGOING WITH RECENT
WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM MYRTLE BEACH AND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
INDICATING WINDS HAVE BACKED ONSHORE AND ARE INCREASING AND
TEMPERATURES ARE DECREASING. NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...

IN A PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF
THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SW WIND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WITH AIR TEMPS OVER THE WATER HOLDING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND TEMPS SOARING WELL THROUGH THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...A HEFTY
SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP WITH WINDS NEAR THE BEACHES LIKELY
REACHING 20 KT BETWEEN 3 AND 8 PM. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET
(HIGHEST E OF CAPE FEAR) SHOULD BUILD TO A SOLID 3 FEET BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH WAVE PERIODS BECOMING VERY SHORT/CHOPPY DUE TO ALL
THE WIND.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO
CENTRAL NC DURING THU. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND TRAVEL ALONG THIS FRONT TO
OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE THU NIGHT. IT WILL AID IN FINALLY
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING FRIDAY...AND TO
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS DURING FRI NIGHT. A 1030+ MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU WILL BECOME NE-E LATE
FRI. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THU AFTN AND NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE STRONG ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A
CHANGE IN DIRECTION TO THE 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES
PART OF THE EQUATION. A FADING EASTERLY 1 FOOT GROUND SWELL TO
REMAIN PRESENT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SE BY SUN AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT
OF THE S-SW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/JDW
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KILM 271622
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1222 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TODAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN.
A RAINY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SEABREEZE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
ITSELF ON SATELLITE AND RADAR AS A ZONE OF ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
COASTAL HORRY COUNTY...CENTRAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY...AND NORTHERN NEW
HANOVER COUNTY. REGIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY SEE
ESSENTIALLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS BUILDING INLAND
AND I STILL EXPECT TO SEE CUMULUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FIRE UP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...

IT`S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE SUMMER! HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER BERMUDA WILL MAINTAIN A WARM SOUTHWEST WIND
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR +14C THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN...AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BUOYS SHOW AIR TEMPS
ACROSS THE WATER ARE STILL AROUND 70 NEARSHORE AND THIS RELATIVELY
CHILLY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE BEACHES QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN INLAND
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EFFECT IS MOST PRONOUNCED ON THE SOUTH-
FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY
WON`T BUDGE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS.

LARGE INLAND-TO-OFFSHORE AIR TEMP DIFFERENCES SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A HEFTY SEABREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. VERY SIMILARLY TO
WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH AT THE
BEACHES BY MID AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 25 MPH.

THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING CONFIRMS WE SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER
OF 750-1000 J/KG. THERE ARE NO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ASSIST
IN LIFTING...HOWEVER THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION PLUS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING NEAR THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO KICK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM LATER
TODAY. FORECAST POPS REMAIN AT 20 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE FA
DURING THU. MID-LEVELS EMBEDDED S/W TROUGHS OR VORTS TO PUSH
ACROSS THE FA LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK
LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...MOVING OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE
THU NIGHT. POPS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY THU
AFTN AND WELL INTO THU NIGHT. THE FORCING AND UVVS FROM THE MID
LEVEL TROUGHS WILL BE WANING AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE FA LATE
THU...BUT COMBINED WITH THE DAYS HEATING AND RESULTING INCREASED
INSTABILITY IE. PROGGED 2000-2500 CAPE...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST
UP TO 45 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE EXITING LOW OFF THE OUTER
BANKS WILL HELP DRAG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE FA
DURING FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE DOWN
THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S FRI NIGHT. USED A BLEND FOR MAX AND MIN
TEMPS THIS PERIOD...AND DISREGARDED THE HIGH GFS MAX TEMPS FOR
THU...IE. 90 FOR LBT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO NC
FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER HOLDING
ON WHILE MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE PRESENT TO KEEP
SHOWERS AT BAY ON SATURDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE
S-SW THROUGH SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD AFFECT
THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN SUN INTO MONDAY
WITH PCP WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM AN INCH EARLY SUNDAY UP TO
1.5 INCHES BY LATE SUN INTO MON. OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AND BEST CHC OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED SHOWERS SUN AFTN AHEAD
OF SYSTEM...BUT MOST SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL COME ON MONDAY. LOOKS
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ON TUES AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH BUT OVERALL
EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR TUES INTO WED.
TEMPS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST PLACES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND RELATIVELY COOLER
AGAIN TUES INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AOB 10 KTS AND FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AOB 20 KTS...AND WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. WOULD NOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE AND FOR RAIN CHANCES
TO DIMINISH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SEABREEZE IS ONGOING WITH RECENT
WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM MYRTLE BEACH AND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
INDICATING WINDS HAVE BACKED ONSHORE AND ARE INCREASING AND
TEMPERATURES ARE DECREASING. NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...

IN A PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF
THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SW WIND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WITH AIR TEMPS OVER THE WATER HOLDING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND TEMPS SOARING WELL THROUGH THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...A HEFTY
SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP WITH WINDS NEAR THE BEACHES LIKELY
REACHING 20 KT BETWEEN 3 AND 8 PM. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET
(HIGHEST E OF CAPE FEAR) SHOULD BUILD TO A SOLID 3 FEET BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH WAVE PERIODS BECOMING VERY SHORT/CHOPPY DUE TO ALL
THE WIND.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO
CENTRAL NC DURING THU. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND TRAVEL ALONG THIS FRONT TO
OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE THU NIGHT. IT WILL AID IN FINALLY
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING FRIDAY...AND TO
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS DURING FRI NIGHT. A 1030+ MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU WILL BECOME NE-E LATE
FRI. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THU AFTN AND NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE STRONG ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A
CHANGE IN DIRECTION TO THE 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES
PART OF THE EQUATION. A FADING EASTERLY 1 FOOT GROUND SWELL TO
REMAIN PRESENT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SE BY SUN AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT
OF THE S-SW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 271622
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1222 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TODAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN.
A RAINY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SEABREEZE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
ITSELF ON SATELLITE AND RADAR AS A ZONE OF ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
COASTAL HORRY COUNTY...CENTRAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY...AND NORTHERN NEW
HANOVER COUNTY. REGIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY SEE
ESSENTIALLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS BUILDING INLAND
AND I STILL EXPECT TO SEE CUMULUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FIRE UP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...

IT`S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE SUMMER! HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER BERMUDA WILL MAINTAIN A WARM SOUTHWEST WIND
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR +14C THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN...AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BUOYS SHOW AIR TEMPS
ACROSS THE WATER ARE STILL AROUND 70 NEARSHORE AND THIS RELATIVELY
CHILLY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE BEACHES QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN INLAND
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EFFECT IS MOST PRONOUNCED ON THE SOUTH-
FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY
WON`T BUDGE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS.

LARGE INLAND-TO-OFFSHORE AIR TEMP DIFFERENCES SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A HEFTY SEABREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. VERY SIMILARLY TO
WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH AT THE
BEACHES BY MID AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 25 MPH.

THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING CONFIRMS WE SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER
OF 750-1000 J/KG. THERE ARE NO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ASSIST
IN LIFTING...HOWEVER THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION PLUS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING NEAR THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO KICK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM LATER
TODAY. FORECAST POPS REMAIN AT 20 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE FA
DURING THU. MID-LEVELS EMBEDDED S/W TROUGHS OR VORTS TO PUSH
ACROSS THE FA LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK
LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...MOVING OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE
THU NIGHT. POPS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY THU
AFTN AND WELL INTO THU NIGHT. THE FORCING AND UVVS FROM THE MID
LEVEL TROUGHS WILL BE WANING AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE FA LATE
THU...BUT COMBINED WITH THE DAYS HEATING AND RESULTING INCREASED
INSTABILITY IE. PROGGED 2000-2500 CAPE...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST
UP TO 45 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE EXITING LOW OFF THE OUTER
BANKS WILL HELP DRAG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE FA
DURING FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE DOWN
THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S FRI NIGHT. USED A BLEND FOR MAX AND MIN
TEMPS THIS PERIOD...AND DISREGARDED THE HIGH GFS MAX TEMPS FOR
THU...IE. 90 FOR LBT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO NC
FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER HOLDING
ON WHILE MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE PRESENT TO KEEP
SHOWERS AT BAY ON SATURDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE
S-SW THROUGH SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD AFFECT
THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN SUN INTO MONDAY
WITH PCP WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM AN INCH EARLY SUNDAY UP TO
1.5 INCHES BY LATE SUN INTO MON. OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AND BEST CHC OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED SHOWERS SUN AFTN AHEAD
OF SYSTEM...BUT MOST SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL COME ON MONDAY. LOOKS
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ON TUES AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH BUT OVERALL
EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR TUES INTO WED.
TEMPS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST PLACES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND RELATIVELY COOLER
AGAIN TUES INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AOB 10 KTS AND FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AOB 20 KTS...AND WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. WOULD NOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE AND FOR RAIN CHANCES
TO DIMINISH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SEABREEZE IS ONGOING WITH RECENT
WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM MYRTLE BEACH AND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
INDICATING WINDS HAVE BACKED ONSHORE AND ARE INCREASING AND
TEMPERATURES ARE DECREASING. NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...

IN A PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF
THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SW WIND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WITH AIR TEMPS OVER THE WATER HOLDING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND TEMPS SOARING WELL THROUGH THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...A HEFTY
SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP WITH WINDS NEAR THE BEACHES LIKELY
REACHING 20 KT BETWEEN 3 AND 8 PM. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET
(HIGHEST E OF CAPE FEAR) SHOULD BUILD TO A SOLID 3 FEET BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH WAVE PERIODS BECOMING VERY SHORT/CHOPPY DUE TO ALL
THE WIND.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO
CENTRAL NC DURING THU. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND TRAVEL ALONG THIS FRONT TO
OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE THU NIGHT. IT WILL AID IN FINALLY
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING FRIDAY...AND TO
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS DURING FRI NIGHT. A 1030+ MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU WILL BECOME NE-E LATE
FRI. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THU AFTN AND NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE STRONG ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A
CHANGE IN DIRECTION TO THE 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES
PART OF THE EQUATION. A FADING EASTERLY 1 FOOT GROUND SWELL TO
REMAIN PRESENT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SE BY SUN AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT
OF THE S-SW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 271358
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
958 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TODAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN.
A RAINY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...IT`S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE
SUMMER! HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER BERMUDA WILL
MAINTAIN A WARM SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. 850 MB
TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR +14C THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE OCEAN...AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BUOYS SHOW AIR TEMPS ACROSS THE WATER ARE STILL AROUND 70
NEARSHORE AND THIS RELATIVELY CHILLY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE BEACHES
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EFFECT
IS MOST PRONOUNCED ON THE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY
WHERE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON`T BUDGE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS.

LARGE INLAND-TO-OFFSHORE AIR TEMP DIFFERENCES SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A HEFTY SEABREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. VERY SIMILARLY TO
WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH AT THE
BEACHES BY MID AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 25 MPH.

THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING CONFIRMS WE SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER
OF 750-1000 J/KG. THERE ARE NO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ASSIST
IN LIFTING...HOWEVER THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION PLUS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING NEAR THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO KICK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM LATER
TODAY. FORECAST POPS REMAIN AT 20 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE FA
DURING THU. MID-LEVELS EMBEDDED S/W TROUGHS OR VORTS TO PUSH
ACROSS THE FA LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK
LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...MOVING OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE
THU NIGHT. POPS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY THU
AFTN AND WELL INTO THU NIGHT. THE FORCING AND UVVS FROM THE MID
LEVEL TROUGHS WILL BE WANING AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE FA LATE
THU...BUT COMBINED WITH THE DAYS HEATING AND RESULTING INCREASED
INSTABILITY IE. PROGGED 2000-2500 CAPE...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST
UP TO 45 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE EXITING LOW OFF THE OUTER
BANKS WILL HELP DRAG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE FA
DURING FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE DOWN
THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S FRI NIGHT. USED A BLEND FOR MAX AND MIN
TEMPS THIS PERIOD...AND DISREGARDED THE HIGH GFS MAX TEMPS FOR
THU...IE. 90 FOR LBT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO NC
FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER HOLDING
ON WHILE MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE PRESENT TO KEEP
SHOWERS AT BAY ON SATURDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE
S-SW THROUGH SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD AFFECT
THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN SUN INTO MONDAY
WITH PCP WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM AN INCH EARLY SUNDAY UP TO
1.5 INCHES BY LATE SUN INTO MON. OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AND BEST CHC OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED SHOWERS SUN AFTN AHEAD
OF SYSTEM...BUT MOST SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL COME ON MONDAY. LOOKS
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ON TUES AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH BUT OVERALL
EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR TUES INTO WED.
TEMPS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST PLACES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND RELATIVELY COOLER
AGAIN TUES INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AOB 10 KTS AND FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AOB 20 KTS...AND WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. WOULD NOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE AND FOR RAIN CHANCES
TO DIMINISH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...IN A PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SW
WIND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH AIR TEMPS OVER THE
WATER HOLDING AROUND 70 BUT INLAND TEMPS SOARING WELL THROUGH THE
80S THIS AFTERNOON...A HEFTY SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP WITH WINDS
NEAR THE BEACHES LIKELY REACHING 20 KT BETWEEN 3 AND 8 PM. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET (HIGHEST E OF CAPE FEAR) SHOULD BUILD TO A
SOLID 3 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH WAVE PERIODS BECOMING VERY
SHORT/CHOPPY DUE TO ALL THE WIND.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO
CENTRAL NC DURING THU. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND TRAVEL ALONG THIS FRONT TO
OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE THU NIGHT. IT WILL AID IN FINALLY
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING FRIDAY...AND TO
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS DURING FRI NIGHT. A 1030+ MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU WILL BECOME NE-E LATE
FRI. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THU AFTN AND NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE STRONG ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A
CHANGE IN DIRECTION TO THE 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES
PART OF THE EQUATION. A FADING EASTERLY 1 FOOT GROUND SWELL TO
REMAIN PRESENT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SE BY SUN AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT
OF THE S-SW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 271205
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
805 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER AND MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO
THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK UVVS FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AVBL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN MY WIDESPREAD SC ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THIS CLOUDINESS TO
PERSIST THRU THE MID TO POSSIBLY LATE MORNING HRS. THE MESOSCALE
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND BEGIN PUSHING INLAND
WITH BULK OF CLOUDINESS TRANSITIONING ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA
BREEZE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK WESTWARD WITH ITS AXIS ONSHORE IN THE
VICINITY OF GA. THUS...WARM SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA
THIS PERIOD. THE ADVERTISED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ONLY DROP OR
SNAKE FROM THE VA CAPES TO THE VA-NC BORDER BY DAYBREAK THU. THE
MAIN CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE ATM ACROSS THE ILM CWA NO LONGER IS
STRONGLY CAPPED. THIS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT NOT
AS PRONOUNCED LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS THAT BASICALLY PREVENTED
DEVELOPING CU TO REACH MDT OR TOWERING CU STATUS. PWS INCREASE TO
1.25+ INCHES ACROSS THE FA AS MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS INCREASES VIA VARIOUS MODEL RH TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS. MODEL
PROGGED INSTABILITY INDICATES 1300-1900 CAPE WHICH HAS BEEN
LACKING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE INLAND PROGRESSION SEA BREEZE
WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO AID INITIATION OTHER THAN THE PLAIN
OLD DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AIR MASS TYPE CONVECTION. BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE...POPS WILL BECOME NULL AND VOID DUE TO THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER. IN ALL...COULD ONLY MUSTER UP 15 TO 24 POPS OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS...USED A
BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS BUT STILL TWEAKED TONIGHTS MINS SLIGHTLY
HIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE FA
DURING THU. MID-LEVELS EMBEDDED S/W TROFS OR VORTS TO PUSH ACROSS
THE FA LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...MOVING OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE THU
NIGHT. POPS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY THU
AFTN AND WELL INTO THU NIGHT. THE FORCING AND UVVS FROM THE MID
LEVEL TROFS WILL BE WANING AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE FA LATE
THU...BUT COMBINED WITH THE DAYS HEATING AND RESULTING INCREASED
INSTABILITY IE. PROGGED 2000-2500 CAPE...ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUST UP TO 45 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
OUTER BANKS WILL HELP DRAG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE
FA DURING FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE
DOWN THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S FRI NIGHT. USED A BLEND FOR MAX AND
MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...AND DISREGARDED THE HIGH GFS MAX TEMPS FOR
THU...IE. 90 FOR LBT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO NC
FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER HOLDING
ON WHILE MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE PRESENT TO KEEP
SHOWERS AT BAY ON SATURDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE
S-SW THROUGH SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD AFFECT
THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN SUN INTO MONDAY
WITH PCP WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM AN INCH EARLY SUNDAY UP TO
1.5 INCHES BY LATE SUN INTO MON. OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AND BEST CHC OF SHWRS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED SHWRS SUN AFTN AHEAD OF
SYSTEM...BUT MOST SHWRS/TSTMS WILL COME ON MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHWRS
ON TUES AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH BUT OVERALL EXPECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR TUES INTO WED. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING
AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND RELATIVELY COOLER AGAIN TUES INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AOB 10 KTS AND FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AOB 20 KTS...AND WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. WOULD NOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE AND FOR RAIN CHANCES
TO DIMINISH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SFC HIGH CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE FROM
THE SE U.S....WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ONSHORE INTO GA.
THIS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL YIELD SW WINDS THRU THIS PERIOD. THE
SFC PG TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED YIELDING AROUND 15 KT WIND
SPEEDS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING DUE TO THE FORMATION AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF
THE SEA BREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4
FOOTERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. DOMINATING PERIODS WILL
RUN 4 TO 5 SECONDS DUE TO WIND DRIVEN WAVES BEING THE PRIMARY
DRIVER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 FOOT
ENE GROUND SWELL WILL REMAIN PRESENT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF FRYING
PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO
CENTRAL NC DURING THU. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND TRAVEL ALONG THIS FRONT TO
OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE THU NIGHT. IT WILL AID IN FINALLY
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING FRIDAY...AND TO
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS DURING FRI NIGHT. A 1030+ MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU
WILL BECOME NE-E AFTER THE CFP DURING LATE FRI. CONVECTION WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS THU AFTN AND NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE STRONG
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4
FT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A CHANGE IN DIRECTION TO THE 4 TO 5
SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES PART OF THE EQUATION OCCURRING
AFTER THE CFP. A FADING EASTERLY 1 FOOT GROUND SWELL TO REMAIN
PRESENT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SE BY SUN AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT
OF THE S-SW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 271205
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
805 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER AND MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO
THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK UVVS FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AVBL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN MY WIDESPREAD SC ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THIS CLOUDINESS TO
PERSIST THRU THE MID TO POSSIBLY LATE MORNING HRS. THE MESOSCALE
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND BEGIN PUSHING INLAND
WITH BULK OF CLOUDINESS TRANSITIONING ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA
BREEZE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK WESTWARD WITH ITS AXIS ONSHORE IN THE
VICINITY OF GA. THUS...WARM SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA
THIS PERIOD. THE ADVERTISED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ONLY DROP OR
SNAKE FROM THE VA CAPES TO THE VA-NC BORDER BY DAYBREAK THU. THE
MAIN CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE ATM ACROSS THE ILM CWA NO LONGER IS
STRONGLY CAPPED. THIS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT NOT
AS PRONOUNCED LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS THAT BASICALLY PREVENTED
DEVELOPING CU TO REACH MDT OR TOWERING CU STATUS. PWS INCREASE TO
1.25+ INCHES ACROSS THE FA AS MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS INCREASES VIA VARIOUS MODEL RH TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS. MODEL
PROGGED INSTABILITY INDICATES 1300-1900 CAPE WHICH HAS BEEN
LACKING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE INLAND PROGRESSION SEA BREEZE
WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO AID INITIATION OTHER THAN THE PLAIN
OLD DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AIR MASS TYPE CONVECTION. BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE...POPS WILL BECOME NULL AND VOID DUE TO THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER. IN ALL...COULD ONLY MUSTER UP 15 TO 24 POPS OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS...USED A
BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS BUT STILL TWEAKED TONIGHTS MINS SLIGHTLY
HIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE FA
DURING THU. MID-LEVELS EMBEDDED S/W TROFS OR VORTS TO PUSH ACROSS
THE FA LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...MOVING OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE THU
NIGHT. POPS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY THU
AFTN AND WELL INTO THU NIGHT. THE FORCING AND UVVS FROM THE MID
LEVEL TROFS WILL BE WANING AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE FA LATE
THU...BUT COMBINED WITH THE DAYS HEATING AND RESULTING INCREASED
INSTABILITY IE. PROGGED 2000-2500 CAPE...ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUST UP TO 45 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
OUTER BANKS WILL HELP DRAG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE
FA DURING FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE
DOWN THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S FRI NIGHT. USED A BLEND FOR MAX AND
MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...AND DISREGARDED THE HIGH GFS MAX TEMPS FOR
THU...IE. 90 FOR LBT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO NC
FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER HOLDING
ON WHILE MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE PRESENT TO KEEP
SHOWERS AT BAY ON SATURDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE
S-SW THROUGH SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD AFFECT
THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN SUN INTO MONDAY
WITH PCP WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM AN INCH EARLY SUNDAY UP TO
1.5 INCHES BY LATE SUN INTO MON. OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AND BEST CHC OF SHWRS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED SHWRS SUN AFTN AHEAD OF
SYSTEM...BUT MOST SHWRS/TSTMS WILL COME ON MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHWRS
ON TUES AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH BUT OVERALL EXPECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR TUES INTO WED. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING
AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND RELATIVELY COOLER AGAIN TUES INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AOB 10 KTS AND FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AOB 20 KTS...AND WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. WOULD NOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE AND FOR RAIN CHANCES
TO DIMINISH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SFC HIGH CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE FROM
THE SE U.S....WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ONSHORE INTO GA.
THIS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL YIELD SW WINDS THRU THIS PERIOD. THE
SFC PG TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED YIELDING AROUND 15 KT WIND
SPEEDS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING DUE TO THE FORMATION AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF
THE SEA BREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4
FOOTERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. DOMINATING PERIODS WILL
RUN 4 TO 5 SECONDS DUE TO WIND DRIVEN WAVES BEING THE PRIMARY
DRIVER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 FOOT
ENE GROUND SWELL WILL REMAIN PRESENT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF FRYING
PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO
CENTRAL NC DURING THU. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND TRAVEL ALONG THIS FRONT TO
OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE THU NIGHT. IT WILL AID IN FINALLY
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING FRIDAY...AND TO
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS DURING FRI NIGHT. A 1030+ MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU
WILL BECOME NE-E AFTER THE CFP DURING LATE FRI. CONVECTION WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS THU AFTN AND NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE STRONG
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4
FT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A CHANGE IN DIRECTION TO THE 4 TO 5
SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES PART OF THE EQUATION OCCURRING
AFTER THE CFP. A FADING EASTERLY 1 FOOT GROUND SWELL TO REMAIN
PRESENT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SE BY SUN AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT
OF THE S-SW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 271027
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
627 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER AND MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO
THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK UVVS FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AVBL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN MY WIDESPREAD SC ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THIS CLOUDINESS TO
PERSIST THRU THE MID TO POSSIBLY LATE MORNING HRS. THE MESOSCALE
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND BEGIN PUSHING INLAND
WITH BULK OF CLOUDINESS TRANSITIONING ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA
BREEZE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK WESTWARD WITH ITS AXIS ONSHORE IN THE
VICINITY OF GA. THUS...WARM SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA
THIS PERIOD. THE ADVERTISED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ONLY DROP OR
SNAKE FROM THE VA CAPES TO THE VA-NC BORDER BY DAYBREAK THU. THE
MAIN CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE ATM ACROSS THE ILM CWA NO LONGER IS
STRONGLY CAPPED. THIS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT NOT
AS PRONOUNCED LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS THAT BASICALLY PREVENTED
DEVELOPING CU TO REACH MDT OR TOWERING CU STATUS. PWS INCREASE TO
1.25+ INCHES ACROSS THE FA AS MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS INCREASES VIA VARIOUS MODEL RH TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS. MODEL
PROGGED INSTABILITY INDICATES 1300-1900 CAPE WHICH HAS BEEN
LACKING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE INLAND PROGRESSION SEA BREEZE
WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO AID INITIATION OTHER THAN THE PLAIN
OLD DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AIR MASS TYPE CONVECTION. BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE...POPS WILL BECOME NULL AND VOID DUE TO THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER. IN ALL...COULD ONLY MUSTER UP 15 TO 24 POPS OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS...USED A
BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS BUT STILL TWEAKED TONIGHTS MINS SLIGHTLY
HIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE FA
DURING THU. MID-LEVELS EMBEDDED S/W TROFS OR VORTS TO PUSH ACROSS
THE FA LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...MOVING OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE THU
NIGHT. POPS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY THU
AFTN AND WELL INTO THU NIGHT. THE FORCING AND UVVS FROM THE MID
LEVEL TROFS WILL BE WANING AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE FA LATE
THU...BUT COMBINED WITH THE DAYS HEATING AND RESULTING INCREASED
INSTABILITY IE. PROGGED 2000-2500 CAPE...ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUST UP TO 45 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
OUTER BANKS WILL HELP DRAG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE
FA DURING FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE
DOWN THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S FRI NIGHT. USED A BLEND FOR MAX AND
MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...AND DISREGARDED THE HIGH GFS MAX TEMPS FOR
THU...IE. 90 FOR LBT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO NC
FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER HOLDING
ON WHILE MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE PRESENT TO KEEP
SHOWERS AT BAY ON SATURDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE
S-SW THROUGH SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD AFFECT
THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN SUN INTO MONDAY
WITH PCP WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM AN INCH EARLY SUNDAY UP TO
1.5 INCHES BY LATE SUN INTO MON. OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AND BEST CHC OF SHWRS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED SHWRS SUN AFTN AHEAD OF
SYSTEM...BUT MOST SHWRS/TSTMS WILL COME ON MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHWRS
ON TUES AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH BUT OVERALL EXPECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR TUES INTO WED. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING
AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND RELATIVELY COOLER AGAIN TUES INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID/HIGH TSTM
DEBRIS CLOUDS DROPPING SE MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. STRATOCU 4-5K MAY ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS
DAWN APPROACHES. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT
WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 15 KT IN RESPONSE TO A SW LLJ AT 30-35 KT AT
1100 TO 1400 FT AGL. APPEARS SITES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW LLWS
CRITERIA ATTM...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE
SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WED...AND ALSO VEER TO THE SW-WSW AT 5 TO
10 KT. THE SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN DEVELOP BY NOON AT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL TERMINALS...REACHING ILM BY 18Z...OVERALL WINDS BACKING TO
THE SSW AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS. ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THIS AFTERNOON...80+ DEGREE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE AIR MASS PULSE
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SFC HIGH CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE FROM
THE SE U.S....WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ONSHORE INTO GA.
THIS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL YIELD SW WINDS THRU THIS PERIOD. THE
SFC PG TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED YIELDING AROUND 15 KT WIND
SPEEDS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING DUE TO THE FORMATION AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF
THE SEA BREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4
FOOTERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. DOMINATING PERIODS WILL
RUN 4 TO 5 SECONDS DUE TO WIND DRIVEN WAVES BEING THE PRIMARY
DRIVER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 FOOT
ENE GROUND SWELL WILL REMAIN PRESENT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF FRYING
PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO
CENTRAL NC DURING THU. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND TRAVEL ALONG THIS FRONT TO
OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE THU NIGHT. IT WILL AID IN FINALLY
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING FRIDAY...AND TO
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS DURING FRI NIGHT. A 1030+ MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU
WILL BECOME NE-E AFTER THE CFP DURING LATE FRI. CONVECTION WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS THU AFTN AND NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE STRONG
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4
FT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A CHANGE IN DIRECTION TO THE 4 TO 5
SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES PART OF THE EQUATION OCCURRING
AFTER THE CFP. A FADING EASTERLY 1 FOOT GROUND SWELL TO REMAIN
PRESENT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SE BY SUN AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT
OF THE S-SW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 270830
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
430 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER AND MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO
THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE
FROM THE SE U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK WESTWARD WITH ITS
AXIS ONSHORE IN THE VICINITY OF GA. THUS...WARM SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THIS PERIOD. THE ADVERTISED BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ONLY DROP OR SNAKE FROM THE VA CAPES TO THE VA-NC
BORDER BY DAYBREAK THU. THE MAIN CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE ATM
ACROSS THE ILM CWA NO LONGER IS STRONGLY CAPPED WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT NOT AS STRONG LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS TO
PREVENT CONVECTION. PWS INCREASE TO 1.25+ INCHES ACROSS THE FA AS
MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS INCREASES VIA VARIOUS
MODEL RH TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS MODEL PROGGED INSTABILITY INDICATES
1500-2000 CAPE WHICH HAS BEEN LACKING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE
INLAND PROGRESSION SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO AID
INITIATION OTHER THAN THE PLAIN OLD DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AIR MASS
TYPE CONVECTION. BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE...POPS WILL BECOME NULL
AND VOID DUE TO THE STABLE MARINE LAYER. IN ALL...COULD ONLY
MUSTER UP 15 TO 24 POPS OR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTN INTO
THIS EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS...USED A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS BUT
STILL TWEAKED TONIGHTS MINS SLIGHTLY HIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE FA
DURING THU. MID-LEVELS EMBEDDED S/W TROFS OR VORTS TO PUSH ACROSS
THE FA LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...MOVING OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE THU
NIGHT. POPS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY THU
AFTN AND WELL INTO THU NIGHT. THE FORCING AND UVVS FROM THE MID
LEVEL TROFS WILL BE WANING AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE FA LATE
THU...BUT COMBINED WITH THE DAYS HEATING AND RESULTING INCREASED
INSTABILITY IE. PROGGED 2000-2500 CAPE...ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUST UP TO 45 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
OUTER BANKS WILL HELP DRAG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE
FA DURING FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE
DOWN THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S FRI NIGHT. USED A BLEND FOR MAX AND
MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...AND DISREGARDED THE HIGH GFS MAX TEMPS FOR
THU...IE. 90 FOR LBT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO NC
FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER HOLDING
ON WHILE MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE PRESENT TO KEEP
SHOWERS AT BAY ON SATURDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE
S-SW THROUGH SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD AFFECT
THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN SUN INTO MONDAY
WITH PCP WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM AN INCH EARLY SUNDAY UP TO
1.5 INCHES BY LATE SUN INTO MON. OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AND BEST CHC OF SHWRS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED SHWRS SUN AFTN AHEAD OF
SYSTEM...BUT MOST SHWRS/TSTMS WILL COME ON MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHWRS
ON TUES AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH BUT OVERALL EXPECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR TUES INTO WED. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING
AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND RELATIVELY COOLER AGAIN TUES INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID/HIGH TSTM
DEBRIS CLOUDS DROPPING SE MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. STRATOCU 4-5K MAY ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS
DAWN APPROACHES. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT
WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 15 KT IN RESPONSE TO A SW LLJ AT 30-35 KT AT
1100 TO 1400 FT AGL. APPEARS SITES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW LLWS
CRITERIA ATTM...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE
SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WED...AND ALSO VEER TO THE SW-WSW AT 5 TO
10 KT. THE SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN DEVELOP BY NOON AT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL TERMINALS...REACHING ILM BY 18Z...OVERALL WINDS BACKING TO
THE SSW AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS. ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THIS AFTERNOON...80+ DEGREE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE AIR MASS PULSE
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SFC HIGH CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE FROM
THE SE U.S....WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ONSHORE INTO GA.
THIS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL YIELD SW WINDS THRU THIS PERIOD. THE
SFC PG TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED YIELDING AROUND 15 KT WIND
SPEEDS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING DUE TO THE FORMATION AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF
THE SEA BREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4
FOOTERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. DOMINATING PERIODS WILL
RUN 4 TO 5 SECONDS DUE TO WIND DRIVEN WAVES THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEAS. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 FOOT ENE GROUND
SWELL WILL REMAIN PRESENT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO
CENTRAL NC DURING THU. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND TRAVEL ALONG THIS FRONT TO
OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE THU NIGHT. IT WILL AID IN FINALLY
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING FRIDAY...AND TO
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS DURING FRI NIGHT. A 1030+ MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU
WILL BECOME NE-E AFTER THE CFP DURING LATE FRI. CONVECTION WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS THU AFTN AND NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE STRONG
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4
FT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A CHANGE IN DIRECTION TO THE 4 TO 5
SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES PART OF THE EQUATION OCCURRING
AFTER THE CFP. A FADING EASTERLY 1 FOOT GROUND SWELL TO REMAIN
PRESENT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SE BY SUN AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT
OF THE S-SW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 270414
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1214 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER AND MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO
THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 928 PM TUESDAY...A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVERHEAD OF NE
SC AND SE NC...BUT CHANGES TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT INCLUDE H9-H7
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND DECREASING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. VAPOR ANIMATIONS APPEAR TO SUPPORT BOTH OF THESE IMMINENT
OCCURRENCES. WHILE NO POPS OR EVEN SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER ARE
PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE TRANSITION WILL SUPPORT
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATER INTO WEDNESDAY.

MOST RECENT KLTX VWP DATA SHOW 35 KT SW WIND AT 1 KFT RIGHT ON
THE EXPECTED TIME FOLLOWING NIGHTFALL. THIS ELEMENT WILL MAINTAIN
PERHAPS ENOUGH WIND NEAR THE SURFACE TO PREVENT FOG OR MIST FROM
EVER GAINING A FOOTHOLD OVERNIGHT...WHILE AIDING MILDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THAN RECENT MORNINGS. 62-66 INLAND AND 66-69 AT THE
COAST REMAINS THE TARGETED RANGE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
NEARING 70 DEGREES...AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE MINIMUMS DURING
BLUSTERY NIGHT PERIODS OF ONSHORE WIND...SIMILAR TO TONIGHTS
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS
PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH...AND THESE
FEATURES COMBINES WILL CREATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTMS.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK
INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ONLY BECOMING SLOWLY
DISPLACED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS
HIGH WILL DRIVE INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...BUT THIS WILL COME
WITH THE COST OF PROMOTING BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES EACH DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL SOAR INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...WHILE A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACH COMMUNITIES 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE 60S WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY...FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND AIR MASS TYPE PULSE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LIKELY SERVE AS
THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR STORMS...BUT ANY BOUNDARIES COULD DRIVE STORMS
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY ABOVE 700 MB...SO
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD OR STRONG STORMS...BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS LIKELY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER DARK AS IT
IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY FORCED...BUT A WARM NIGHT WILL REMAIN AS LOWS
FALL ONLY INTO THE MID 60S.

A SIMILAR DAY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS FORECAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP LEADING TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE LOW/MID 80S WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY OF 1500-200 J/KG
WHICH WILL FUEL STORMS ON THURSDAY. THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES WILL
AGAIN BE FAVORED DURING THE AFTN...BUT AS THE FRONT DROPS SLOWLY
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVE AND NIGHT...CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND LAST WELL AFTER DARK. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE SWODY3...BUT OTHER THAN LARGE CAPE VALUES THE OVERALL
SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LOW...AND ATTM DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST IS POSSIBLE THANKS TO A
SUBTLE INVERTED-V IN THE INCREASINGLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT LOWS
WILL AGAIN REMAIN WARM...FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID 60S...LOW 60S
WELL NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND SLOW MOVING...NOT SURPRISING FOR LATE APRIL IN THE
TRANSITION SEASON FROM SPRING TO SUMMER. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. THE FLOW
SLOWLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW OPENS
UP AND MEANDERS EAST. AS FOR THE SURFACE FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER THETA-E AIR ARRIVES AND WITH MINIMAL FORCING...SEA
BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS ELEMENTS
WARRANT HIGHER POPS MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY AS THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN CLEARING THING OUT WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES
ANOTHER SYSTEM ACROSS. MAINTAINED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD. WARMEST FRIDAY BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THE
MOISTURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...EXPECT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID/HIGH TSTM
DEBRIS CLOUDS DROPPING SE MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. STRATOCU 4-5K MAY ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS
DAWN APPROACHES. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT
WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 15 KT IN RESPONSE TO A SW LLJ AT 30-35 KT AT
1100 TO 1400 FT AGL. APPEARS SITES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW LLWS
CRITERIA ATTM...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE
SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WED...AND ALSO VEER TO THE SW-WSW AT 5 TO
10 KT. THE SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN DEVELOP BY NOON AT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL TERMINALS...REACHING ILM BY 18Z...OVERALL WINDS BACKING TO
THE SSW AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS. ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THIS AFTERNOON...80+ DEGREE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE AIR MASS PULSE
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 928 PM TUESDAY...WIND-SPEEDS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE AS THE
NOCTURNAL SW JET GEARS UP. IN THAT SSTS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...ADDED MIXING TO THE SEA SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. SEA-HEIGHTS HOWEVER SHOULD HOLD AROUND 3
FEET IN A MIX OF LONG PERIOD EAST WAVES EVERY 10 SECONDS AND
MODERATE SW SHORT-CRESTED WIND-WAVES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT
THIS TIME...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

E WAVE 2-3 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS WERE FANNING ASHORE. THIS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT PERHAPS BECOMING DOMINANT AT
10-11 SECOND INTERVALS. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW CHOP WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED
TO REASSESS IF 20 KT GUSTS SHOULD BE INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND JET INCREASES. MILDER
SSTS WILL PROMOTE THE HIGHER WIND.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE WATERS THIS PERIOD AS IT DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL DRIVE PERSISTENT SW WINDS OF AROUND 15
KTS...INCREASING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH PINCHES THE GRADIENT. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO THE NW EXPECTED
BEYOND THE SHORT TERM. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
A 9-10 SEC SE SWELL AND 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE PRODUCING THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL SOMEWHAT MANAGEABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE EXTENDED ALTHOUGH NOT IDEAL. A BRIEF
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A BETTER DEFINED NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS LATER SATURDAY IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. BY LATER SUNDAY
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD OCCUR
EARLY FRIDAY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL BE MANAGEABLE THROUGHOUT
WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS. EXPECT A MOSTLY 2-4 FOOT RANGE WITH IF
ANYTHING EVEN LOWER VALUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 270414
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1214 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER AND MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO
THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 928 PM TUESDAY...A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVERHEAD OF NE
SC AND SE NC...BUT CHANGES TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT INCLUDE H9-H7
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND DECREASING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. VAPOR ANIMATIONS APPEAR TO SUPPORT BOTH OF THESE IMMINENT
OCCURRENCES. WHILE NO POPS OR EVEN SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER ARE
PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE TRANSITION WILL SUPPORT
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATER INTO WEDNESDAY.

MOST RECENT KLTX VWP DATA SHOW 35 KT SW WIND AT 1 KFT RIGHT ON
THE EXPECTED TIME FOLLOWING NIGHTFALL. THIS ELEMENT WILL MAINTAIN
PERHAPS ENOUGH WIND NEAR THE SURFACE TO PREVENT FOG OR MIST FROM
EVER GAINING A FOOTHOLD OVERNIGHT...WHILE AIDING MILDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THAN RECENT MORNINGS. 62-66 INLAND AND 66-69 AT THE
COAST REMAINS THE TARGETED RANGE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
NEARING 70 DEGREES...AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE MINIMUMS DURING
BLUSTERY NIGHT PERIODS OF ONSHORE WIND...SIMILAR TO TONIGHTS
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS
PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH...AND THESE
FEATURES COMBINES WILL CREATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTMS.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK
INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ONLY BECOMING SLOWLY
DISPLACED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS
HIGH WILL DRIVE INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...BUT THIS WILL COME
WITH THE COST OF PROMOTING BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES EACH DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL SOAR INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...WHILE A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACH COMMUNITIES 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE 60S WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY...FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND AIR MASS TYPE PULSE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LIKELY SERVE AS
THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR STORMS...BUT ANY BOUNDARIES COULD DRIVE STORMS
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY ABOVE 700 MB...SO
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD OR STRONG STORMS...BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS LIKELY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER DARK AS IT
IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY FORCED...BUT A WARM NIGHT WILL REMAIN AS LOWS
FALL ONLY INTO THE MID 60S.

A SIMILAR DAY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS FORECAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP LEADING TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE LOW/MID 80S WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY OF 1500-200 J/KG
WHICH WILL FUEL STORMS ON THURSDAY. THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES WILL
AGAIN BE FAVORED DURING THE AFTN...BUT AS THE FRONT DROPS SLOWLY
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVE AND NIGHT...CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND LAST WELL AFTER DARK. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE SWODY3...BUT OTHER THAN LARGE CAPE VALUES THE OVERALL
SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LOW...AND ATTM DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST IS POSSIBLE THANKS TO A
SUBTLE INVERTED-V IN THE INCREASINGLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT LOWS
WILL AGAIN REMAIN WARM...FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID 60S...LOW 60S
WELL NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND SLOW MOVING...NOT SURPRISING FOR LATE APRIL IN THE
TRANSITION SEASON FROM SPRING TO SUMMER. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. THE FLOW
SLOWLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW OPENS
UP AND MEANDERS EAST. AS FOR THE SURFACE FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER THETA-E AIR ARRIVES AND WITH MINIMAL FORCING...SEA
BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS ELEMENTS
WARRANT HIGHER POPS MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY AS THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN CLEARING THING OUT WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES
ANOTHER SYSTEM ACROSS. MAINTAINED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD. WARMEST FRIDAY BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THE
MOISTURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...EXPECT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID/HIGH TSTM
DEBRIS CLOUDS DROPPING SE MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. STRATOCU 4-5K MAY ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS
DAWN APPROACHES. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT
WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 15 KT IN RESPONSE TO A SW LLJ AT 30-35 KT AT
1100 TO 1400 FT AGL. APPEARS SITES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW LLWS
CRITERIA ATTM...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE
SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WED...AND ALSO VEER TO THE SW-WSW AT 5 TO
10 KT. THE SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN DEVELOP BY NOON AT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL TERMINALS...REACHING ILM BY 18Z...OVERALL WINDS BACKING TO
THE SSW AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS. ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THIS AFTERNOON...80+ DEGREE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE AIR MASS PULSE
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 928 PM TUESDAY...WIND-SPEEDS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE AS THE
NOCTURNAL SW JET GEARS UP. IN THAT SSTS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...ADDED MIXING TO THE SEA SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. SEA-HEIGHTS HOWEVER SHOULD HOLD AROUND 3
FEET IN A MIX OF LONG PERIOD EAST WAVES EVERY 10 SECONDS AND
MODERATE SW SHORT-CRESTED WIND-WAVES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT
THIS TIME...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

E WAVE 2-3 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS WERE FANNING ASHORE. THIS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT PERHAPS BECOMING DOMINANT AT
10-11 SECOND INTERVALS. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW CHOP WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED
TO REASSESS IF 20 KT GUSTS SHOULD BE INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND JET INCREASES. MILDER
SSTS WILL PROMOTE THE HIGHER WIND.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE WATERS THIS PERIOD AS IT DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL DRIVE PERSISTENT SW WINDS OF AROUND 15
KTS...INCREASING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH PINCHES THE GRADIENT. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO THE NW EXPECTED
BEYOND THE SHORT TERM. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
A 9-10 SEC SE SWELL AND 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE PRODUCING THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL SOMEWHAT MANAGEABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE EXTENDED ALTHOUGH NOT IDEAL. A BRIEF
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A BETTER DEFINED NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS LATER SATURDAY IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. BY LATER SUNDAY
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD OCCUR
EARLY FRIDAY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL BE MANAGEABLE THROUGHOUT
WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS. EXPECT A MOSTLY 2-4 FOOT RANGE WITH IF
ANYTHING EVEN LOWER VALUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 270128
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
928 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER AND MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO
THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 928 PM TUESDAY...A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVERHEAD OF NE
SC AND SE NC...BUT CHANGES TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT INCLUDE H9-H7
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND DECREASING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. VAPOR ANIMATIONS APPEAR TO SUPPORT BOTH OF THESE IMMINENT
OCCURRENCES. WHILE NO POPS OR EVEN SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER ARE
PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE TRANSITION WILL SUPPORT
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATER INTO WEDNESDAY.

MOST RECENT KLTX VWP DATA SHOW 35 KT SW WIND AT 1 KFT RIGHT ON
THE EXPECTED TIME FOLLOWING NIGHTFALL. THIS ELEMENT WILL MAINTAIN
PERHAPS ENOUGH WIND NEAR THE SURFACE TO PREVENT FOG OR MIST FROM
EVER GAINING A FOOTHOLD OVERNIGHT...WHILE AIDING MILDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THAN RECENT MORNINGS. 62-66 INLAND AND 66-69 AT THE
COAST REMAINS THE TARGETED RANGE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
NEARING 70 DEGREES...AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE MINIMUMS DURING
BLUSTERY NIGHT PERIODS OF ONSHORE WIND...SIMILAR TO TONIGHTS
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS
PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH...AND THESE
FEATURES COMBINES WILL CREATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTMS.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK
INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ONLY BECOMING SLOWLY
DISPLACED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS
HIGH WILL DRIVE INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...BUT THIS WILL COME
WITH THE COST OF PROMOTING BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES EACH DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL SOAR INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...WHILE A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACH COMMUNITIES 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE 60S WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY...FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND AIR MASS TYPE PULSE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LIKELY SERVE AS
THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR STORMS...BUT ANY BOUNDARIES COULD DRIVE STORMS
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY ABOVE 700 MB...SO
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD OR STRONG STORMS...BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS LIKELY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER DARK AS IT
IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY FORCED...BUT A WARM NIGHT WILL REMAIN AS LOWS
FALL ONLY INTO THE MID 60S.

A SIMILAR DAY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS FORECAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP LEADING TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE LOW/MID 80S WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY OF 1500-200 J/KG
WHICH WILL FUEL STORMS ON THURSDAY. THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES WILL
AGAIN BE FAVORED DURING THE AFTN...BUT AS THE FRONT DROPS SLOWLY
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVE AND NIGHT...CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND LAST WELL AFTER DARK. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE SWODY3...BUT OTHER THAN LARGE CAPE VALUES THE OVERALL
SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LOW...AND ATTM DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST IS POSSIBLE THANKS TO A
SUBTLE INVERTED-V IN THE INCREASINGLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT LOWS
WILL AGAIN REMAIN WARM...FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID 60S...LOW 60S
WELL NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND SLOW MOVING...NOT SURPRISING FOR LATE APRIL IN THE
TRANSITION SEASON FROM SPRING TO SUMMER. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. THE FLOW
SLOWLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW OPENS
UP AND MEANDERS EAST. AS FOR THE SURFACE FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER THETA-E AIR ARRIVES AND WITH MINIMAL FORCING...SEA
BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS ELEMENTS
WARRANT HIGHER POPS MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY AS THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN CLEARING THING OUT WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES
ANOTHER SYSTEM ACROSS. MAINTAINED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD. WARMEST FRIDAY BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THE
MOISTURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH
MID/HIGH TSTM DEBRIS CLOUDS WELL TO THE NW MAY MAY SPREAD ACROSS
THE TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SC 4-5K MAY ALSO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AS DAWN APPROACHES. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE SW WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 15 KT IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING LLJ FROM THE SW AT 30-35 KT AT 1100 TO 1400 FT AGL.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LLWS BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT THE SFC WIND
SPEEDS ARE AND HOW STRONG THE LLJ ACTUALLY IS. WILL REVISIT ON
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS VEER AND BECOME SW-WSW AT 5 TO 10 KT BY
SUNRISE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN DEVELOP BY NOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS. ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA
BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT IN THE 60S
WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR AIR MASS PULSE CONVECTION...TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN KFLO/KCRE TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 928 PM TUESDAY...WIND-SPEEDS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE AS THE
NOCTURNAL SW JET GEARS UP. IN THAT SSTS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...ADDED MIXING TO THE SEA SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. SEA-HEIGHTS HOWEVER SHOULD HOLD AROUND 3
FEET IN A MIX OF LONG PERIOD EAST WAVES EVERY 10 SECONDS AND
MODERATE SW SHORT-CRESTED WIND-WAVES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT
THIS TIME...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

E WAVE 2-3 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS WERE FANNING ASHORE. THIS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT PERHAPS BECOMING DOMINANT AT
10-11 SECOND INTERVALS. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW CHOP WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED
TO REASSESS IF 20 KT GUSTS SHOULD BE INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND JET INCREASES. MILDER
SSTS WILL PROMOTE THE HIGHER WIND.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE WATERS THIS PERIOD AS IT DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL DRIVE PERSISTENT SW WINDS OF AROUND 15
KTS...INCREASING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH PINCHES THE GRADIENT. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO THE NW EXPECTED
BEYOND THE SHORT TERM. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
A 9-10 SEC SE SWELL AND 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE PRODUCING THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL SOMEWHAT MANAGEABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE EXTENDED ALTHOUGH NOT IDEAL. A BRIEF
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A BETTER DEFINED NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS LATER SATURDAY IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. BY LATER SUNDAY
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD OCCUR
EARLY FRIDAY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL BE MANAGEABLE THROUGHOUT
WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS. EXPECT A MOSTLY 2-4 FOOT RANGE WITH IF
ANYTHING EVEN LOWER VALUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 262339
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
739 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER BUT MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO
THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 648 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY EVENING UPDATES. KLTX VWP MEASURING 20 KT SW FLOW AT 1
KFT AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE TO 30-35 KT AFTER NIGHTFALL AS
SURFACE DECOUPLING TO VARYING DEGREE...BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALOFT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST FORMATION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. VAPORIZING CUMULUS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A CLEAR EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH PROGRESSIVELY MILDER
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...TARGETED AT 62-66 INLAND AND 66-69 AT THE
COAST...AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARING 70 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE THE CONTROLLING
INFLUENCE ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY. A SECOND DAY OF MOIST
RETURN FLOW HAS ALLOWED COLUMN PWATS TO INCREASE...AND WITHOUT
LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS THIS IS EVIDENT FROM THE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE WAS
DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...AND CU HAS BECOME AGITATED
ENOUGH ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH THAT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO HAS
DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WANING QUICKLY
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT HOWEVER HAS
PREVENTED OTHER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...EVEN ALONG A ROBUST SEA
BREEZE.

CUMULUS WILL ERODE QUICKLY AFTER DARK LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY SPREAD FROM THE
NORTH LATE...AND SOME INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
STRATOCUMULUS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LLJ OVERNIGHT. THIS LLJ IS
FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG...30-35 MPH AROUND 1500 FT...AND THIS
WILL PREVENT SHARP STEEPENING OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION OVERNIGHT.
CONTINUED WARM SW SURFACE WINDS AND A WEAK INVERSION WILL KEEP MINS
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE...62-66 ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS
PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH...AND THESE
FEATURES COMBINES WILL CREATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTMS.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK
INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ONLY BECOMING SLOWLY
DISPLACED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS
HIGH WILL DRIVE INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...BUT THIS WILL COME
WITH THE COST OF PROMOTING BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES EACH DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL SOAR INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...WHILE A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACH COMMUNITIES 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE 60S WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY...FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND AIR MASS TYPE PULSE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LIKELY SERVE AS
THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR STORMS...BUT ANY BOUNDARIES COULD DRIVE STORMS
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY ABOVE 700 MB...SO
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD OR STRONG STORMS...BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS LIKELY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER DARK AS IT
IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY FORCED...BUT A WARM NIGHT WILL REMAIN AS LOWS
FALL ONLY INTO THE MID 60S.

A SIMILAR DAY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS FORECAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP LEADING TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE LOW/MID 80S WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY OF 1500-200 J/KG
WHICH WILL FUEL STORMS ON THURSDAY. THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES WILL
AGAIN BE FAVORED DURING THE AFTN...BUT AS THE FRONT DROPS SLOWLY
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVE AND NIGHT...CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND LAST WELL AFTER DARK. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE SWODY3...BUT OTHER THAN LARGE CAPE VALUES THE OVERALL
SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LOW...AND ATTM DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST IS POSSIBLE THANKS TO A
SUBTLE INVERTED-V IN THE INCREASINGLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT LOWS
WILL AGAIN REMAIN WARM...FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID 60S...LOW 60S
WELL NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND SLOW MOVING...NOT SURPRISING FOR LATE APRIL IN THE
TRANSITION SEASON FROM SPRING TO SUMMER. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. THE FLOW
SLOWLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW OPENS
UP AND MEANDERS EAST. AS FOR THE SURFACE FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER THETA-E AIR ARRIVES AND WITH MINIMAL FORCING...SEA
BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS ELEMENTS
WARRANT HIGHER POPS MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY AS THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN CLEARING THING OUT WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES
ANOTHER SYSTEM ACROSS. MAINTAINED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD. WARMEST FRIDAY BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THE
MOISTURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH
MID/HIGH TSTM DEBRIS CLOUDS WELL TO THE NW MAY MAY SPREAD ACROSS
THE TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SC 4-5K MAY ALSO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AS DAWN APPROACHES. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE SW WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 15 KT IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING LLJ FROM THE SW AT 30-35 KT AT 1100 TO 1400 FT AGL.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LLWS BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT THE SFC WIND
SPEEDS ARE AND HOW STRONG THE LLJ ACTUALLY IS. WILL REVISIT ON
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS VEER AND BECOME SW-WSW AT 5 TO 10 KT BY
SUNRISE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN DEVELOP BY NOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS. ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA
BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT IN THE 60S
WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR AIR MASS PULSE CONVECTION...TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN KFLO/KCRE TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 648 PM TUESDAY...E WAVE 2-3 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS FANNING
ASHORE. THIS WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT PERHAPS
BECOMING DOMINANT AT 10-11 SECOND INTERVALS LATE. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SW CHOP WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO REASSESS IF 20 KT GUSTS SHOULD BE
INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL
WIND JET INCREASES. MILDER SSTS WILL PROMOTE THE HIGHER WIND. THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE HAVE
BEEN AROUND 15 KTS...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...SEA
BREEZE WINDS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO 20
KTS...AND THESE WILL SLOWLY EASE TO JOIN THE SYNOPTIC WINDS THIS
EVENING. SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT WILL BUILD AT TIMES TO 3-4 FT
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY...WITH AN E SWELL AND LOCAL
SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE WATERS THIS PERIOD AS IT DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL DRIVE PERSISTENT SW WINDS OF AROUND 15
KTS...INCREASING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH PINCHES THE GRADIENT. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO THE NW EXPECTED
BEYOND THE SHORT TERM. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
A 9-10 SEC SE SWELL AND 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE PRODUCING THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL SOMEWHAT MANAGEABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE EXTENDED ALTHOUGH NOT IDEAL. A BRIEF
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A BETTER DEFINED NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS LATER SATURDAY IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. BY LATER SUNDAY
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD OCCUR
EARLY FRIDAY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL BE MANAGEABLE THROUGHOUT
WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS. EXPECT A MOSTLY 2-4 FOOT RANGE WITH IF
ANYTHING EVEN LOWER VALUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 262248
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
648 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER BUT MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO
THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 648 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY EVENING UPDATES. KLTX VWP MEASURING 20 KT SW FLOW AT 1
KFT AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE TO 30-35 KT AFTER NIGHTFALL AS
SURFACE DECOUPLING TO VARYING DEGREE...BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
MOMEMTUM TRANSFER ALOFT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST FORMATION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. VAPORIZING CUMULUS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A CLEAR EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH PROGRESSIVELY MILDER
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...TARGETED AT 62-66 INLAND AND 66-69 AT THE
COAST...AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARING 70 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE THE CONTROLLING
INFLUENCE ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY. A SECOND DAY OF MOIST
RETURN FLOW HAS ALLOWED COLUMN PWATS TO INCREASE...AND WITHOUT
LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS THIS IS EVIDENT FROM THE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE WAS
DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...AND CU HAS BECOME AGITATED
ENOUGH ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH THAT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO HAS
DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WANING QUICKLY
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT HOWEVER HAS
PREVENTED OTHER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...EVEN ALONG A ROBUST SEA
BREEZE.

CUMULUS WILL ERODE QUICKLY AFTER DARK LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY SPREAD FROM THE
NORTH LATE...AND SOME INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
STRATOCUMULUS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LLJ OVERNIGHT. THIS LLJ IS
FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG...30-35 MPH AROUND 1500 FT...AND THIS
WILL PREVENT SHARP STEEPENING OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION OVERNIGHT.
CONTINUED WARM SW SURFACE WINDS AND A WEAK INVERSION WILL KEEP MINS
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE...62-66 ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS
PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH...AND THESE
FEATURES COMBINES WILL CREATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTMS.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK
INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ONLY BECOMING SLOWLY
DISPLACED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS
HIGH WILL DRIVE INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...BUT THIS WILL COME
WITH THE COST OF PROMOTING BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES EACH DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL SOAR INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...WHILE A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACH COMMUNITIES 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE 60S WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY...FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND AIR MASS TYPE PULSE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LIKELY SERVE AS
THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR STORMS...BUT ANY BOUNDARIES COULD DRIVE STORMS
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY ABOVE 700 MB...SO
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD OR STRONG STORMS...BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS LIKELY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER DARK AS IT
IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY FORCED...BUT A WARM NIGHT WILL REMAIN AS LOWS
FALL ONLY INTO THE MID 60S.

A SIMILAR DAY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS FORECAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP LEADING TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE LOW/MID 80S WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY OF 1500-200 J/KG
WHICH WILL FUEL STORMS ON THURSDAY. THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES WILL
AGAIN BE FAVORED DURING THE AFTN...BUT AS THE FRONT DROPS SLOWLY
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVE AND NIGHT...CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND LAST WELL AFTER DARK. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE SWODY3...BUT OTHER THAN LARGE CAPE VALUES THE OVERALL
SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LOW...AND ATTM DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST IS POSSIBLE THANKS TO A
SUBTLE INVERTED-V IN THE INCREASINGLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT LOWS
WILL AGAIN REMAIN WARM...FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID 60S...LOW 60S
WELL NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND SLOW MOVING...NOT SURPRISING FOR LATE APRIL IN THE
TRANSITION SEASON FROM SPRING TO SUMMER. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. THE FLOW
SLOWLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW OPENS
UP AND MEANDERS EAST. AS FOR THE SURFACE FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER THETA-E AIR ARRIVES AND WITH MINIMAL FORCING...SEA
BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS ELEMENTS
WARRANT HIGHER POPS MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY AS THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN CLEARING THING OUT WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES
ANOTHER SYSTEM ACROSS. MAINTAINED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD. WARMEST FRIDAY BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THE
MOISTURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRUOUT THE VALID 24 HR 18Z ISSUANCE
PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN THE PROBLEM CHILD FOR THIS FCST.

LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM AN INLAND PROGRESSING AND POTENT
SEA BREEZE THAT WILL YIELD FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU THRU THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE...STABLE LOW LEVEL
MARINE AIR WILL KEEP SKIES SKC. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL GROWTH OF THE CU...WITH THEIR TOPS BEING FLATTENED OUT.
THUS COULD OBSERVE MODERATE CU GROWTH AT BEST...WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED. FOR TONIGHT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SFC WINDS
STAYING ACTIVE.

AS FOR WINDS...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FURTHER
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS THRU THIS PERIOD...WITH ITS SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD AND ONSHORE NEAR THE GA-SC STATE
LINE. A SLOW TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT INTO
WED. IN ADDITION...AN ACTIVE AND POTENT INLAND PROGRESSING SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...WILL REACH THE FLO AND LBT LINE AROUND SUNSET.
OVERALL...LOOKING AT SW-WSW WINDS AT 10 KT G15 KT...BACKING TO
S-SSW AT 10-15 KT WITH G17-19 KT. THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE
S-SSW AROUND 15 KT G20-25 KT INTO THIS EVENING. ALL LOCATIONS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SW-WSW AT 5 TO 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY HOLD
AT THIS SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. THE LATTER DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
JET FROM THE SW AT 30-35 KT AT 1100 TO 1400 FT AGL. AS A RESULT...
COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 15 KT ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SFC PG RELAXES-SOME BY WED DAYTIME
MORNING...YIELDING WSW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE WED SEA BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP BY NOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 648 PM TUESDAY...E WAVE 2-3 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS FANNING
ASHORE. THIS WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT PERHAPS
BECOMING DOMINANT AT 10-11 SECOND INTERVALS LATE. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SW CHOP WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO REASSESS IF 20 KT GUSTS SHOULD BE
INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL
WIND JET INCREASES. MILDER SSTS WILL PROMOTE THE HIGHER WIND. THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE HAVE
BEEN AROUND 15 KTS...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...SEA
BREEZE WINDS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO 20
KTS...AND THESE WILL SLOWLY EASE TO JOIN THE SYNOPTIC WINDS THIS
EVENING. SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT WILL BUILD AT TIMES TO 3-4 FT
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY...WITH AN E SWELL AND LOCAL
SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE WATERS THIS PERIOD AS IT DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL DRIVE PERSISTENT SW WINDS OF AROUND 15
KTS...INCREASING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH PINCHES THE GRADIENT. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO THE NW EXPECTED
BEYOND THE SHORT TERM. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
A 9-10 SEC SE SWELL AND 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE PRODUCING THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL SOMEWHAT MANAGEABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE EXTENDED ALTHOUGH NOT IDEAL. A BRIEF
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A BETTER DEFINED NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS LATER SATURDAY IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. BY LATER SUNDAY
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD OCCUR
EARLY FRIDAY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL BE MANAGEABLE THROUGHOUT
WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS. EXPECT A MOSTLY 2-4 FOOT RANGE WITH IF
ANYTHING EVEN LOWER VALUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...JDW/MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 261918
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
318 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP
ON SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE FEW DAYS THAT FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE
THE CONTROLLING INFLUENCE ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY. A SECOND
DAY OF MOIST RETURN FLOW HAS ALLOWED COLUMN PWATS TO INCREASE...AND
WITHOUT LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS THIS IS EVIDENT FROM THE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
WAS DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...AND CU HAS BECOME AGITATED
ENOUGH ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH THAT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO HAS
DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WANING QUICKLY
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT HOWEVER HAS PREVENTED
OTHER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...EVEN ALONG A ROBUST SEA BREEZE.

CUMULUS WILL ERODE QUICKLY AFTER DARK LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY SPREAD FROM THE
NORTH LATE...AND SOME INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
STRATOCUMULUS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LLJ OVERNIGHT. THIS LLJ IS
FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG...30-35 MPH AROUND 1500 FT...AND THIS
WILL PREVENT SHARP STEEPENING OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION OVERNIGHT.
CONTINUED WARM SW SURFACE WINDS AND A WEAK INVERSION WILL KEEP MINS
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE...62-66 ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS
PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH...AND THESE
FEATURES COMBINES WILL CREATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTMS.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK
INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ONLY BECOMING SLOWLY
DISPLACED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS
HIGH WILL DRIVE INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...BUT THIS WILL COME
WITH THE COST OF PROMOTING BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES EACH DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL SOAR INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...WHILE A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACH COMMUNITIES 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE 60S WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY...FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND AIR MASS TYPE PULSE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LIKELY SERVE AS
THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR STORMS...BUT ANY BOUNDARIES COULD DRIVE STORMS
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY ABOVE 700 MB...SO
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD OR STRONG STORMS...BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS LIKELY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER DARK AS IT
IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY FORCED...BUT A WARM NIGHT WILL REMAIN AS LOWS
FALL ONLY INTO THE MID 60S.

A SIMILAR DAY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS FORECAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP LEADING TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE LOW/MID 80S WILL CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY OF 1500-200 J/KG
WHICH WILL FUEL STORMS ON THURSDAY. THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES WILL
AGAIN BE FAVORED DURING THE AFTN...BUT AS THE FRONT DROPS SLOWLY
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVE AND NIGHT...CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND LAST WELL AFTER DARK. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE SWODY3...BUT OTHER THAN LARGE CAPE VALUES THE OVERALL
SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LOW...AND ATTM DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST IS POSSIBLE THANKS TO A
SUBTLE INVERTED-V IN THE INCREASINGLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT LOWS
WILL AGAIN REMAIN WARM...FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID 60S...LOW 60S
WELL NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND SLOW MOVING...NOT SURPRISING FOR LATE APRIL IN THE
TRANSITION SEASON FROM SPRING TO SUMMER. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. THE FLOW
SLOWLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW OPENS
UP AND MEANDERS EAST. AS FOR THE SURFACE FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER THETA-E AIR ARRIVES AND WITH MINIMAL FORCING...SEA
BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS ELEMENTS
WARRANT HIGHER POPS MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY AS THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN CLEARING THING OUT WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES
ANOTHER SYSTEM ACROSS. MAINTAINED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD. WARMEST FRIDAY BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THE
MOISTURE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRUOUT THE VALID 24 HR 18Z ISSUANCE
PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN THE PROBLEM CHILD FOR THIS FCST.

LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM AN INLAND PROGRESSING AND POTENT
SEA BREEZE THAT WILL YIELD FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU THRU THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE...STABLE LOW LEVEL
MARINE AIR WILL KEEP SKIES SKC. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL GROWTH OF THE CU...WITH THEIR TOPS BEING FLATTENED OUT.
THUS COULD OBSERVE MODERATE CU GROWTH AT BEST...WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED. FOR TONIGHT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SFC WINDS
STAYING ACTIVE.

AS FOR WINDS...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FURTHER
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS THRU THIS PERIOD...WITH ITS SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD AND ONSHORE NEAR THE GA-SC STATE
LINE. A SLOW TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT INTO
WED. IN ADDITION...AN ACTIVE AND POTENT INLAND PROGRESSING SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...WILL REACH THE FLO AND LBT LINE AROUND SUNSET.
OVERALL...LOOKING AT SW-WSW WINDS AT 10 KT G15 KT...BACKING TO
S-SSW AT 10-15 KT WITH G17-19 KT. THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE
S-SSW AROUND 15 KT G20-25 KT INTO THIS EVENING. ALL LOCATIONS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SW-WSW AT 5 TO 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY HOLD
AT THIS SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. THE LATTER DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
JET FROM THE SW AT 30-35 KT AT 1100 TO 1400 FT AGL. AS A RESULT...
COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 15 KT ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SFC PG RELAXES-SOME BY WED DAYTIME
MORNING...YIELDING WSW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE WED SEA BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP BY NOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN ITS
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS AROUND THE
HIGH PRESSURE HAVE BEEN AROUND 15 KTS...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR
TERM. HOWEVER...SEA BREEZE WINDS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING TO 20 KTS...AND THESE WILL SLOWLY EASE TO JOIN THE SYNOPTIC
WINDS THIS EVENING. SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT WILL BUILD AT TIMES TO 3-4 FT
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY...WITH AN E SWELL AND LOCAL SHORT
PERIOD WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE WATERS THIS PERIOD AS IT DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL DRIVE PERSISTENT SW WINDS OF AROUND 15
KTS...INCREASING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH PINCHES THE GRADIENT. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO THE NW EXPECTED
BEYOND THE SHORT TERM. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
A 9-10 SEC SE SWELL AND 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE PRODUCING THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL SOMEWHAT MANAGEABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE EXTENDED ALTHOUGH NOT IDEAL. A BRIEF
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A BETTER DEFINED NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS LATER SATURDAY IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. BY LATER SUNDAY
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD OCCUR
EARLY FRIDAY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL BE MANAGEABLE THROUGHOUT
WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS. EXPECT A MOSTLY 2-4 FOOT RANGE WITH IF
ANYTHING EVEN LOWER VALUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 261754
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
154 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP
ON SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE FEW DAYS THAT FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL BE THE CONTROLLING INFLUENCE
INTO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...KEEPING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE OH VLY AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH COMBINED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE CLIMO VALUES TODAY...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE COAST WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THANKS TO A STRONG SEA BREEZE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLUMN TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY SHALLOW CUMULUS INLAND FROM THE SEA
BREEZE TODAY. LATEST HRRR AND ARW SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND HAVE INCREASED POP FROM INHERITED...BUT MAINTAINED
VALUES BELOW MENTIONABLE DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 800MB. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TODAY BUT
FELT IT MORE ACCURATE TO KEEP POP SILENT ATTM.

A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT FORECAST AS WARM SW FLOW PERSISTS. MINS WILL
DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S...WARMEST NEAR THE COAST...AND
A STRONG LLJ PREVENTS STEEPENING OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SE UNITED STATES WILL TECHNICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...IT WILL GET BEATEN DOWN BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST...FEEDING HEAT AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA.

WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS...SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD REACH 1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND MAY APPROACH 1500
J/KG ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE CUMULUS GROWTH AND
SOME OF THE FIRST AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OF THE YEAR. THESE STORMS
SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BOTH DAYS AND ALSO
AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY. FORECAST
POPS ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND 40 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MAY MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT RECENT MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING IT MAY SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT COULD LEAD AN ENHANCEMENT IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THAT ITS POSITION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...NONE OF WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED
YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
TAKES ANY MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THOUGH AS THE MAIN COOL PUSH IS DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
SECONDARY PUSH WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK BY SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK
THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE RETURN
APPEARS TO ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW ITS PASSAGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A VERY POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH HANGS UP TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VORT-
LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FOR SOME
RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRUOUT THE VALID 24 HR 18Z ISSUANCE
PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN THE PROBLEM CHILD FOR THIS FCST.

LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM AN INLAND PROGRESSING AND POTENT
SEA BREEZE THAT WILL YIELD FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU THRU THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE...STABLE LOW LEVEL
MARINE AIR WILL KEEP SKIES SKC. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL GROWTH OF THE CU...WITH THEIR TOPS BEING FLATTENED OUT.
THUS COULD OBSERVE MODERATE CU GROWTH AT BEST...WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED. FOR TONIGHT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SFC WINDS
STAYING ACTIVE.

AS FOR WINDS...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FURTHER
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS THRU THIS PERIOD...WITH ITS SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD AND ONSHORE NEAR THE GA-SC STATE
LINE. A SLOW TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT INTO
WED. IN ADDITION...AN ACTIVE AND POTENT INLAND PROGRESSING SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...WILL REACH THE FLO AND LBT LINE AROUND SUNSET.
OVERALL...LOOKING AT SW-WSW WINDS AT 10 KT G15 KT...BACKING TO
S-SSW AT 10-15 KT WITH G17-19 KT. THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE
S-SSW AROUND 15 KT G20-25 KT INTO THIS EVENING. ALL LOCATIONS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SW-WSW AT 5 TO 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY HOLD
AT THIS SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. THE LATTER DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
JET FROM THE SW AT 30-35 KT AT 1100 TO 1400 FT AGL. AS A RESULT...
COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 15 KT ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SFC PG RELAXES-SOME BY WED DAYTIME
MORNING...YIELDING WSW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE WED SEA BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP BY NOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY MORE TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE S/SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 15 KTS. A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...SO WINDS WITHIN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY BACK
A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND GUST TO 20 KTS AT TIMES...BEFORE THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW AGAIN BECOMES PREDOMINANT TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET MAY LOCALLY BUILD TO 3-4 FEET IN SPOTS TONIGHT IN
A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELL AND LOCAL SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG IT. MODELS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EMPHATIC
THAT THE FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY
SINCE MOST MODELS PAINT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
LEAVING MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A SECONDARY
PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY TURNING THE WINDS TO NORTHEAST. THE HIGH REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. LOCALLY
THIS TURNS THE FLOW TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY. DURING ALL
OF THESE DIRECTIONAL CHANGES WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE. SO WHILE WAVE PERIODS MAY BE UNPLEASANTLY SHORT
AND CHOPPY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OVERALL BUILDING OF DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THUS HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO GOING FORECAST. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS. ANY MID TO HIGH CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT IN NATURE. GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 261754
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
154 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP
ON SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE FEW DAYS THAT FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL BE THE CONTROLLING INFLUENCE
INTO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...KEEPING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE OH VLY AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH COMBINED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE CLIMO VALUES TODAY...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE COAST WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THANKS TO A STRONG SEA BREEZE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLUMN TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY SHALLOW CUMULUS INLAND FROM THE SEA
BREEZE TODAY. LATEST HRRR AND ARW SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND HAVE INCREASED POP FROM INHERITED...BUT MAINTAINED
VALUES BELOW MENTIONABLE DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 800MB. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TODAY BUT
FELT IT MORE ACCURATE TO KEEP POP SILENT ATTM.

A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT FORECAST AS WARM SW FLOW PERSISTS. MINS WILL
DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S...WARMEST NEAR THE COAST...AND
A STRONG LLJ PREVENTS STEEPENING OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SE UNITED STATES WILL TECHNICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...IT WILL GET BEATEN DOWN BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST...FEEDING HEAT AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA.

WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS...SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD REACH 1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND MAY APPROACH 1500
J/KG ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE CUMULUS GROWTH AND
SOME OF THE FIRST AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OF THE YEAR. THESE STORMS
SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BOTH DAYS AND ALSO
AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY. FORECAST
POPS ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND 40 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MAY MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT RECENT MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING IT MAY SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT COULD LEAD AN ENHANCEMENT IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THAT ITS POSITION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...NONE OF WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED
YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
TAKES ANY MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THOUGH AS THE MAIN COOL PUSH IS DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
SECONDARY PUSH WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK BY SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK
THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE RETURN
APPEARS TO ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW ITS PASSAGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A VERY POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH HANGS UP TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VORT-
LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FOR SOME
RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRUOUT THE VALID 24 HR 18Z ISSUANCE
PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN THE PROBLEM CHILD FOR THIS FCST.

LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM AN INLAND PROGRESSING AND POTENT
SEA BREEZE THAT WILL YIELD FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU THRU THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE...STABLE LOW LEVEL
MARINE AIR WILL KEEP SKIES SKC. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL GROWTH OF THE CU...WITH THEIR TOPS BEING FLATTENED OUT.
THUS COULD OBSERVE MODERATE CU GROWTH AT BEST...WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED. FOR TONIGHT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SFC WINDS
STAYING ACTIVE.

AS FOR WINDS...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FURTHER
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS THRU THIS PERIOD...WITH ITS SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD AND ONSHORE NEAR THE GA-SC STATE
LINE. A SLOW TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT INTO
WED. IN ADDITION...AN ACTIVE AND POTENT INLAND PROGRESSING SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...WILL REACH THE FLO AND LBT LINE AROUND SUNSET.
OVERALL...LOOKING AT SW-WSW WINDS AT 10 KT G15 KT...BACKING TO
S-SSW AT 10-15 KT WITH G17-19 KT. THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE
S-SSW AROUND 15 KT G20-25 KT INTO THIS EVENING. ALL LOCATIONS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SW-WSW AT 5 TO 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY HOLD
AT THIS SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. THE LATTER DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
JET FROM THE SW AT 30-35 KT AT 1100 TO 1400 FT AGL. AS A RESULT...
COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 15 KT ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SFC PG RELAXES-SOME BY WED DAYTIME
MORNING...YIELDING WSW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE WED SEA BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP BY NOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY MORE TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE S/SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 15 KTS. A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...SO WINDS WITHIN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY BACK
A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND GUST TO 20 KTS AT TIMES...BEFORE THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW AGAIN BECOMES PREDOMINANT TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET MAY LOCALLY BUILD TO 3-4 FEET IN SPOTS TONIGHT IN
A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELL AND LOCAL SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG IT. MODELS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EMPHATIC
THAT THE FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY
SINCE MOST MODELS PAINT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
LEAVING MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A SECONDARY
PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY TURNING THE WINDS TO NORTHEAST. THE HIGH REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. LOCALLY
THIS TURNS THE FLOW TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY. DURING ALL
OF THESE DIRECTIONAL CHANGES WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE. SO WHILE WAVE PERIODS MAY BE UNPLEASANTLY SHORT
AND CHOPPY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OVERALL BUILDING OF DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THUS HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO GOING FORECAST. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS. ANY MID TO HIGH CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT IN NATURE. GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 261349
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
949 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOLDOWN. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP ON
SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE FEW DAYS THAT FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL BE THE CONTROLLING INFLUENCE
INTO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...KEEPING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE OH VLY AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH COMBINED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE CLIMO VALUES TODAY...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE COAST WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THANKS TO A STRONG SEA BREEZE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLUMN TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY SHALLOW CUMULUS INLAND FROM THE SEA
BREEZE TODAY. LATEST HRRR AND ARW SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND HAVE INCREASED POP FROM INHERITED...BUT MAINTAINED
VALUES BELOW MENTIONABLE DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 800MB. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TODAY BUT
FELT IT MORE ACCURATE TO KEEP POP SILENT ATTM.

A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT FORECAST AS WARM SW FLOW PERSISTS. MINS WILL
DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S...WARMEST NEAR THE COAST...AND
A STRONG LLJ PREVENTS STEEPENING OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SE UNITED STATES WILL TECHNICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...IT WILL GET BEATEN DOWN BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST...FEEDING HEAT AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA.

WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS...SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD REACH 1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND MAY APPROACH 1500
J/KG ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE CUMULUS GROWTH AND
SOME OF THE FIRST AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OF THE YEAR. THESE STORMS
SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BOTH DAYS AND ALSO
AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY. FORECAST
POPS ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND 40 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MAY MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT RECENT MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING IT MAY SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT COULD LEAD AN ENHANCEMENT IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THAT ITS POSITION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...NONE OF WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED
YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
TAKES ANY MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THOUGH AS THE MAIN COOL PUSH IS DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
SECONDARY PUSH WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK BY SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK
THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE RETURN
APPEARS TO ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW ITS PASSAGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A VERY POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH HANGS UP TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VORT-
LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FOR SOME
RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THUS HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO GOING FORECAST. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS. ANY MID TO HIGH CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT IN NATURE. GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY MORE TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE S/SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 15 KTS. A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...SO WINDS WITHIN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY BACK
A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND GUST TO 20 KTS AT TIMES...BEFORE THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW AGAIN BECOMES PREDOMINANT TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET MAY LOCALLY BUILD TO 3-4 FEET IN SPOTS TONIGHT IN
A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELL AND LOCAL SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG IT. MODELS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EMPHATIC
THAT THE FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY
SINCE MOST MODELS PAINT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
LEAVING MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A SECONDARY
PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY TURNING THE WINDS TO NORTHEAST. THE HIGH REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. LOCALLY
THIS TURNS THE FLOW TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY. DURING ALL
OF THESE DIRECTIONAL CHANGES WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE. SO WHILE WAVE PERIODS MAY BE UNPLEASANTLY SHORT
AND CHOPPY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OVERALL BUILDING OF DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KILM 261132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOLDOWN. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP ON
SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE FEW DAYS THAT FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SE
UNITED STATES WILL DEFLECT THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE WESTERLIES
WELL NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS MOVED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA
TODAY. WITH FEWER CIRRUS CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY AND ONLY ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW FLAT CUMULUS INLAND TODAY...EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST...VERY NEAR THE WARMER GFS MOS HIGHS.

A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING
WITH 1500 FOOT WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 30-35 KT. THIS JET SHOULD
HELP INDUCE ENOUGH TURBULENCE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION FROM BECOMING VERY DEEP. MY FORECAST LOWS
ARE ON THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...61-66 FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SE UNITED STATES WILL TECHNICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...IT WILL GET BEATEN DOWN BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST...FEEDING HEAT AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA.

WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS...SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD REACH 1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND MAY APPROACH 1500
J/KG ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE CUMULUS GROWTH AND
SOME OF THE FIRST AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OF THE YEAR. THESE STORMS
SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BOTH DAYS AND ALSO
AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY. FORECAST
POPS ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND 40 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MAY MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT RECENT MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING IT MAY SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT COULD LEAD AN ENHANCEMENT IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THAT ITS POSITION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...NONE OF WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED
YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
TAKES ANY MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THOUGH AS THE MAIN COOL PUSH IS DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
SECONDARY PUSH WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK BY SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK
THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE RETURN
APPEARS TO ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW ITS PASSAGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A VERY POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH HANGS UP TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VORT-
LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FOR SOME
RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THUS HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO GOING FORECAST. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS. ANY MID TO HIGH CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT IN NATURE. GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AND WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE. BY THIS AFTERNOON THERE
SHOULD BE A 15-DEGREE MARINE-VERSUS-INLAND TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE...LIKELY DEVELOPING A MODERATE STRENGTH SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION WITH 15+ KNOT WIND SPEEDS NEARSHORE. THESE WINDS WILL
NOT DIMINISH APPRECIABLY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET MAY LOCALLY BUILD TO 3
FEET IN SPOTS TONIGHT IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELL AND LOCAL
SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG IT. MODELS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EMPHATIC
THAT THE FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY
SINCE MOST MODELS PAINT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
LEAVING MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A SECONDARY
PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY TURNING THE WINDS TO NORTHEAST. THE HIGH REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. LOCALLY
THIS TURNS THE FLOW TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY. DURING ALL
OF THESE DIRECTIONAL CHANGES WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE. SO WHILE WAVE PERIODS MAY BE UNPLEASANTLY SHORT
AND CHOPPY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OVERALL BUILDING OF DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ109.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 261132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOLDOWN. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP ON
SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE FEW DAYS THAT FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SE
UNITED STATES WILL DEFLECT THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE WESTERLIES
WELL NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS MOVED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA
TODAY. WITH FEWER CIRRUS CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY AND ONLY ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW FLAT CUMULUS INLAND TODAY...EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST...VERY NEAR THE WARMER GFS MOS HIGHS.

A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING
WITH 1500 FOOT WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 30-35 KT. THIS JET SHOULD
HELP INDUCE ENOUGH TURBULENCE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION FROM BECOMING VERY DEEP. MY FORECAST LOWS
ARE ON THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...61-66 FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SE UNITED STATES WILL TECHNICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...IT WILL GET BEATEN DOWN BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST...FEEDING HEAT AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA.

WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS...SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD REACH 1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND MAY APPROACH 1500
J/KG ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE CUMULUS GROWTH AND
SOME OF THE FIRST AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OF THE YEAR. THESE STORMS
SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BOTH DAYS AND ALSO
AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY. FORECAST
POPS ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND 40 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MAY MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT RECENT MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING IT MAY SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT COULD LEAD AN ENHANCEMENT IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THAT ITS POSITION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...NONE OF WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED
YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
TAKES ANY MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THOUGH AS THE MAIN COOL PUSH IS DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
SECONDARY PUSH WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK BY SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK
THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE RETURN
APPEARS TO ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW ITS PASSAGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A VERY POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH HANGS UP TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VORT-
LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FOR SOME
RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THUS HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO GOING FORECAST. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS. ANY MID TO HIGH CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT IN NATURE. GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AND WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE. BY THIS AFTERNOON THERE
SHOULD BE A 15-DEGREE MARINE-VERSUS-INLAND TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE...LIKELY DEVELOPING A MODERATE STRENGTH SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION WITH 15+ KNOT WIND SPEEDS NEARSHORE. THESE WINDS WILL
NOT DIMINISH APPRECIABLY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET MAY LOCALLY BUILD TO 3
FEET IN SPOTS TONIGHT IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELL AND LOCAL
SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG IT. MODELS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EMPHATIC
THAT THE FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY
SINCE MOST MODELS PAINT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
LEAVING MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A SECONDARY
PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY TURNING THE WINDS TO NORTHEAST. THE HIGH REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. LOCALLY
THIS TURNS THE FLOW TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY. DURING ALL
OF THESE DIRECTIONAL CHANGES WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE. SO WHILE WAVE PERIODS MAY BE UNPLEASANTLY SHORT
AND CHOPPY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OVERALL BUILDING OF DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ109.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 261021
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
621 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOLDOWN. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP ON
SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE FEW DAYS THAT FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SE
UNITED STATES WILL DEFLECT THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE WESTERLIES
WELL NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS MOVED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA
TODAY. WITH FEWER CIRRUS CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY AND ONLY ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW FLAT CUMULUS INLAND TODAY...EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST...VERY NEAR THE WARMER GFS MOS HIGHS.

A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING
WITH 1500 FOOT WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 30-35 KT. THIS JET SHOULD
HELP INDUCE ENOUGH TURBULENCE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION FROM BECOMING VERY DEEP. MY FORECAST LOWS
ARE ON THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...61-66 FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SE UNITED STATES WILL TECHNICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...IT WILL GET BEATEN DOWN BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST...FEEDING HEAT AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA.

WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS...SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD REACH 1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND MAY APPROACH 1500
J/KG ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE CUMULUS GROWTH AND
SOME OF THE FIRST AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OF THE YEAR. THESE STORMS
SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BOTH DAYS AND ALSO
AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY. FORECAST
POPS ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND 40 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MAY MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT RECENT MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING IT MAY SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT COULD LEAD AN ENHANCEMENT IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THAT ITS POSITION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...NONE OF WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED
YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
TAKES ANY MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THOUGH AS THE MAIN COOL PUSH IS DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
SECONDARY PUSH WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK BY SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK
THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE RETURN
APPEARS TO ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW ITS PASSAGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A VERY POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH HANGS UP TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VORT-
LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FOR SOME
RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
HAVE BECOME LIGHT...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES PRESENTS A POTENTIAL FOG
THREAT. HOWEVER WINDS AT JUST 1000 FEET AGL ARE NEAR 20 KT. THESE
WINDS APPEAR TO BE ABLE TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE THUS EXPECT
ENOUGH WIND/MIXING TO OCCUR TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION
AS TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS CONTINUE TO NARROW TO 1-5 DEGREES
THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT THAT MAY BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.

AFTER SUNRISE SW WINDS 5-10 KT EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS...WITH
SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING. WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE
SW AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WHERE WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE S AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS BY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AND WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE. BY THIS AFTERNOON THERE
SHOULD BE A 15-DEGREE MARINE-VERSUS-INLAND TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE...LIKELY DEVELOPING A MODERATE STRENGTH SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION WITH 15+ KNOT WIND SPEEDS NEARSHORE. THESE WINDS WILL
NOT DIMINISH APPRECIABLY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET MAY LOCALLY BUILD TO 3
FEET IN SPOTS TONIGHT IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELL AND LOCAL
SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG IT. MODELS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EMPHATIC
THAT THE FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY
SINCE MOST MODELS PAINT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
LEAVING MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A SECONDARY
PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY TURNING THE WINDS TO NORTHEAST. THE HIGH REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. LOCALLY
THIS TURNS THE FLOW TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY. DURING ALL
OF THESE DIRECTIONAL CHANGES WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE. SO WHILE WAVE PERIODS MAY BE UNPLEASANTLY SHORT
AND CHOPPY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OVERALL BUILDING OF DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ109.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





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