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000
FXUS62 KILM 262347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
647 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE COOL
DOWN WILL BE MODEST. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE SHOWS SHARP CLEARING LINE WORKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW OFF THE COAST OF NJ CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE AREA
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER OF THE NC COAST SO STILL NOT SURE SKIES
WILL FULLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE
NORTH OF THE AREA AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE 5H
TROUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MID LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP BUT DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 2 PM FOLLOWS:AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY OUT THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WILL
ADVECT IN PLENTY OF DRY AND COOL AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH PAST 50 UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER. AS SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL HOLD RIGHT AROUND 50 AS
CAA OFFSETS ANY SUNSHINE. MOST PLACES WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS AND
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW COLUMN DRYING OUT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BELOW 5K FT LINGERING THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS
BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTAL SKI CLEARING. PCP WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS
2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO LESS
THAN A HALF INCH BY THIS EVENING. STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS
FROM CLOSE TO 15C IN WARM AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS
MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO 0C BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT
AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH REACHING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SW AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER VA/NC BORDER. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE WITH SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES IN AN OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. SOUNDING SHOW AN ALMOST
SATURATED LAYER FORMING BETWEEN 6 AND 9K FT JUST AROUND DAYBREAK.
OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE BY DAYBREAK. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN
BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY EARLY MORNING WITH COLDEST READINGS INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BOTTOM OUT AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THU MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT THROUGH THE DAY. AS IT SKIRTS
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND DYNAMICS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...FROM BENNETTSVILLE AND
DILLON TO NEAR WHITEVILLE AND BURGAW AND POINTS N...DESPITE THE VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE 10 KFT. QPF WILL BE MINIMAL AND MEASURABLE
RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. SUNSHINE ON THU SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF A FLO TO
MYR LINE WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT.

COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED BEHIND THIS TROUGH WITH TEMPS AT 850 MB
DROPPING TO MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5 DEG FRI MORNING AND THIS CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF AN
INCH...SO NO RISK FOR EVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEYOND THU AND IN
FACT IT LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WANING DAYS OF NOV. HIGHS ON THU
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH ONLY MID 40S TO AROUND 50
EXPECTED ON FRI. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THU
NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW MID 20S MAY OCCUR IN WIND PROTECTED COLD SPOTS.
LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S...WITH A FEW LOWER
20S INLAND WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ABLE TO MAXIMIZE LONGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A RATHER UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
WARMING TREND/PATTERN CHANGE THE HEADLINES. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL START OUT DUE ZONAL...500MB HEIGHTS WEST TO EAST ARE ALL BUT
FLAT INITIALLY AND VEERS SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY THAT
BRIEFLY SERVES TO TEMPER THE WARMUP NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY ABOVE MONDAY WITH THE BRIEF SETBACK TUESDAY. A
QUICK RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AS THE CATALYST AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PLAY A FACTOR
JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD. NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR STRATOCU CONTINUES TO THIN THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY AROUND 02-03Z...WITH KILM LIKELY THE LAST TAF SITE TO LOSE
ITS MVFR CIGS. GRADUAL CLEARING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF CALM/LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT COULD SUPPORT PATCHY MVFR BR...AS THE GROUND IS STILL
MOIST FROM RECENT RAINFALL. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS BUT
MOVED UP THE TIMING BY SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE EXPECTED CHANGES
IN WIND SPEED OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THU
WITH A SECONDARY SFC LOW APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS...SO ANY VSBY
ISSUES WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 03-09Z. THE LOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE VFR AS GUSTY
W-NW WINDS 10-20 KT PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE MORNING FOG ON MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS
GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW PRESSURE EXITING NORTHEAST HAS RESULTING IN
WINDS BACKING TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND DIRECTION WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME WESTERLY. LATE IN THE PERIOD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS LOW
PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE NORTH OF THE AREA. LATEST OBS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS SO HAVE ELECTED TO
CANCEL THE SCA A BIT EARLY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 2 PM FOLLOWS:SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF
THE LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4
FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVE. ALL LOCAL WATERS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING
AS OFF SHORE FLOW DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KT.

WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SFC LOW CROSSING
THE HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. THIS
WILL KICK SEAS BACK UP NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN WINDS DURING AND JUST
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT OUT THU AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT
REINFORCING COLD AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED INTO
FRI. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE THINKING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ON THU AND MAY LINGER INTO FRI
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST AND FAVORABLE
FOR MARINERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW OF TEN KNOTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE...CENTERED
EAST TO WEST BASICALLY OVERHEAD. THIS WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN LEADS
TO SEAS OF 1-3 FEET MAINLY OF SHORTER PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 262347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
647 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE COOL
DOWN WILL BE MODEST. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE SHOWS SHARP CLEARING LINE WORKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW OFF THE COAST OF NJ CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE AREA
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER OF THE NC COAST SO STILL NOT SURE SKIES
WILL FULLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE
NORTH OF THE AREA AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE 5H
TROUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MID LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP BUT DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 2 PM FOLLOWS:AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY OUT THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WILL
ADVECT IN PLENTY OF DRY AND COOL AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH PAST 50 UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER. AS SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL HOLD RIGHT AROUND 50 AS
CAA OFFSETS ANY SUNSHINE. MOST PLACES WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS AND
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW COLUMN DRYING OUT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BELOW 5K FT LINGERING THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS
BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTAL SKI CLEARING. PCP WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS
2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO LESS
THAN A HALF INCH BY THIS EVENING. STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS
FROM CLOSE TO 15C IN WARM AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS
MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO 0C BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT
AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH REACHING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SW AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER VA/NC BORDER. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE WITH SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES IN AN OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. SOUNDING SHOW AN ALMOST
SATURATED LAYER FORMING BETWEEN 6 AND 9K FT JUST AROUND DAYBREAK.
OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE BY DAYBREAK. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN
BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY EARLY MORNING WITH COLDEST READINGS INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BOTTOM OUT AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THU MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT THROUGH THE DAY. AS IT SKIRTS
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND DYNAMICS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...FROM BENNETTSVILLE AND
DILLON TO NEAR WHITEVILLE AND BURGAW AND POINTS N...DESPITE THE VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE 10 KFT. QPF WILL BE MINIMAL AND MEASURABLE
RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. SUNSHINE ON THU SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF A FLO TO
MYR LINE WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT.

COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED BEHIND THIS TROUGH WITH TEMPS AT 850 MB
DROPPING TO MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5 DEG FRI MORNING AND THIS CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF AN
INCH...SO NO RISK FOR EVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEYOND THU AND IN
FACT IT LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WANING DAYS OF NOV. HIGHS ON THU
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH ONLY MID 40S TO AROUND 50
EXPECTED ON FRI. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THU
NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW MID 20S MAY OCCUR IN WIND PROTECTED COLD SPOTS.
LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S...WITH A FEW LOWER
20S INLAND WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ABLE TO MAXIMIZE LONGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A RATHER UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
WARMING TREND/PATTERN CHANGE THE HEADLINES. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL START OUT DUE ZONAL...500MB HEIGHTS WEST TO EAST ARE ALL BUT
FLAT INITIALLY AND VEERS SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY THAT
BRIEFLY SERVES TO TEMPER THE WARMUP NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY ABOVE MONDAY WITH THE BRIEF SETBACK TUESDAY. A
QUICK RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AS THE CATALYST AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PLAY A FACTOR
JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD. NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR STRATOCU CONTINUES TO THIN THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY AROUND 02-03Z...WITH KILM LIKELY THE LAST TAF SITE TO LOSE
ITS MVFR CIGS. GRADUAL CLEARING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF CALM/LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT COULD SUPPORT PATCHY MVFR BR...AS THE GROUND IS STILL
MOIST FROM RECENT RAINFALL. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS BUT
MOVED UP THE TIMING BY SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE EXPECTED CHANGES
IN WIND SPEED OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THU
WITH A SECONDARY SFC LOW APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS...SO ANY VSBY
ISSUES WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 03-09Z. THE LOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE VFR AS GUSTY
W-NW WINDS 10-20 KT PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE MORNING FOG ON MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS
GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW PRESSURE EXITING NORTHEAST HAS RESULTING IN
WINDS BACKING TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND DIRECTION WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME WESTERLY. LATE IN THE PERIOD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS LOW
PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE NORTH OF THE AREA. LATEST OBS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS SO HAVE ELECTED TO
CANCEL THE SCA A BIT EARLY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 2 PM FOLLOWS:SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF
THE LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4
FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVE. ALL LOCAL WATERS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING
AS OFF SHORE FLOW DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KT.

WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SFC LOW CROSSING
THE HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. THIS
WILL KICK SEAS BACK UP NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN WINDS DURING AND JUST
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT OUT THU AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT
REINFORCING COLD AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED INTO
FRI. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE THINKING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ON THU AND MAY LINGER INTO FRI
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST AND FAVORABLE
FOR MARINERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW OF TEN KNOTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE...CENTERED
EAST TO WEST BASICALLY OVERHEAD. THIS WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN LEADS
TO SEAS OF 1-3 FEET MAINLY OF SHORTER PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 261950
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
250 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE COOL
DOWN WILL BE MODEST. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WILL ADVECT IN PLENTY OF
DRY AND COOL AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH
PAST 50 UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL HOLD RIGHT AROUND 50 AS CAA OFFSETS ANY
SUNSHINE. MOST PLACES WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
BEFORE SUNSET EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW COLUMN DRYING OUT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW
5K FT LINGERING THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST. THEREFORE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS BUT NOT EXPECTING
TOTAL SKI CLEARING. PCP WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ALONG THE
CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY
THIS EVENING. STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 15C
IN WARM AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO
0C BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH REACHING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SW AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER VA/NC BORDER. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE WITH SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES IN AN OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. SOUNDING SHOW AN ALMOST
SATURATED LAYER FORMING BETWEEN 6 AND 9K FT JUST AROUND DAYBREAK.
OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE BY DAYBREAK. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN
BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY EARLY MORNING WITH COLDEST READINGS INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BOTTOM OUT AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THU MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT THROUGH THE DAY. AS IT SKIRTS
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND DYNAMICS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...FROM BENNETTSVILLE AND
DILLON TO NEAR WHITEVILLE AND BURGAW AND POINTS N...DESPITE THE VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE 10 KFT. QPF WILL BE MINIMAL AND MEASURABLE
RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. SUNSHINE ON THU SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF A FLO TO
MYR LINE WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT.

COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED BEHIND THIS TROUGH WITH TEMPS AT 850 MB
DROPPING TO MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5 DEG FRI MORNING AND THIS CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF AN
INCH....SO NO RISK FOR EVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEYOND THU AND IN
FACT IT LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WANING DAYS OF NOV. HIGHS ON THU
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH ONLY MID 40S TO AROUND 50
EXPECTED ON FRI. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THU
NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW MID 20S MAY OCCUR IN WIND PROTECTED COLD SPOTS.
LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S...WITH A FEW LOWER
20S INLAND WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ABLE TO MAXIMIZE LONGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A RATHER UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
WARMING TREND/PATTERN CHANGE THE HEADLINES. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL START OUT DUE ZONAL...500MB HEIGHTS WEST TO EAST ARE ALL BUT
FLAT INITIALLY AND VEERS SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY THAT
BRIEFLY SERVES TO TEMPER THE WARMUP NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY ABOVE MONDAY WITH THE BRIEF SETBACK TUESDAY. A
QUICK RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AS THE CATALYST AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PLAY A FACTOR
JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD. NO POPS THROUGHOUT.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AS THE LOW IS RAPIDLY
PULLING AWAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOOKS LIKE SOME
FORM OF A STRATOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE...THE HEAVY RAINS COULD HELP TO PRODUCE
MVFR FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THANKSGIVING DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE. A STRATOCU CEILING MAY FORM OVER OUR NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING
FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. ALL LOCAL WATERS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AS OFF SHORE FLOW DIMINISHES TO 10
TO 15 KT.

WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SFC LOW CROSSING
THE HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. THIS
WILL KICK SEAS BACK UP NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN WINDS DURING AND JUST
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT OUT THU AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT
REINFORCING COLD AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED INTO
FRI. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE THINKING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ON THU AND MAY LINGER INTO FRI
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST AND FAVORABLE
FOR MARINERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW OF TEN KNOTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE...CENTERED
EAST TO WEST BASICALLY OVERHEAD. THIS WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN LEADS
TO SEAS OF 1-3 FEET MAINLY OF SHORTER PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 261950
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
250 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE COOL
DOWN WILL BE MODEST. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WILL ADVECT IN PLENTY OF
DRY AND COOL AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH
PAST 50 UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL HOLD RIGHT AROUND 50 AS CAA OFFSETS ANY
SUNSHINE. MOST PLACES WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
BEFORE SUNSET EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW COLUMN DRYING OUT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW
5K FT LINGERING THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST. THEREFORE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS BUT NOT EXPECTING
TOTAL SKI CLEARING. PCP WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ALONG THE
CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY
THIS EVENING. STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 15C
IN WARM AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO
0C BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH REACHING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SW AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER VA/NC BORDER. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE WITH SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES IN AN OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. SOUNDING SHOW AN ALMOST
SATURATED LAYER FORMING BETWEEN 6 AND 9K FT JUST AROUND DAYBREAK.
OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE BY DAYBREAK. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN
BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY EARLY MORNING WITH COLDEST READINGS INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BOTTOM OUT AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THU MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT THROUGH THE DAY. AS IT SKIRTS
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND DYNAMICS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...FROM BENNETTSVILLE AND
DILLON TO NEAR WHITEVILLE AND BURGAW AND POINTS N...DESPITE THE VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE 10 KFT. QPF WILL BE MINIMAL AND MEASURABLE
RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. SUNSHINE ON THU SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF A FLO TO
MYR LINE WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT.

COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED BEHIND THIS TROUGH WITH TEMPS AT 850 MB
DROPPING TO MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5 DEG FRI MORNING AND THIS CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF AN
INCH....SO NO RISK FOR EVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEYOND THU AND IN
FACT IT LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WANING DAYS OF NOV. HIGHS ON THU
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH ONLY MID 40S TO AROUND 50
EXPECTED ON FRI. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THU
NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW MID 20S MAY OCCUR IN WIND PROTECTED COLD SPOTS.
LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S...WITH A FEW LOWER
20S INLAND WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ABLE TO MAXIMIZE LONGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A RATHER UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
WARMING TREND/PATTERN CHANGE THE HEADLINES. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL START OUT DUE ZONAL...500MB HEIGHTS WEST TO EAST ARE ALL BUT
FLAT INITIALLY AND VEERS SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY THAT
BRIEFLY SERVES TO TEMPER THE WARMUP NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY ABOVE MONDAY WITH THE BRIEF SETBACK TUESDAY. A
QUICK RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AS THE CATALYST AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PLAY A FACTOR
JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD. NO POPS THROUGHOUT.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AS THE LOW IS RAPIDLY
PULLING AWAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOOKS LIKE SOME
FORM OF A STRATOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE...THE HEAVY RAINS COULD HELP TO PRODUCE
MVFR FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THANKSGIVING DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE. A STRATOCU CEILING MAY FORM OVER OUR NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING
FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. ALL LOCAL WATERS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AS OFF SHORE FLOW DIMINISHES TO 10
TO 15 KT.

WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SFC LOW CROSSING
THE HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. THIS
WILL KICK SEAS BACK UP NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN WINDS DURING AND JUST
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT OUT THU AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT
REINFORCING COLD AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED INTO
FRI. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE THINKING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ON THU AND MAY LINGER INTO FRI
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST AND FAVORABLE
FOR MARINERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW OF TEN KNOTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE...CENTERED
EAST TO WEST BASICALLY OVERHEAD. THIS WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN LEADS
TO SEAS OF 1-3 FEET MAINLY OF SHORTER PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL






000
FXUS62 KILM 261932
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL DRY OUT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WILL ADVECT IN PLENTY OF
DRY AND COOL AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH
PAST 50 UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL HOLD RIGHT AROUND 50 AS CAA OFFSETS ANY
SUNSHINE. MOST PLACES WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
BEFORE SUNSET EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW COLUMN DRYING OUT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW
5K FT LINGERING THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST. THEREFORE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS BUT NOT EXPECTING
TOTAL SKI CLEARING. PCP WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ALONG THE
CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY
THIS EVENING. STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 15C
IN WARM AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO
0C BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH REACHING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SW AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER VA/NC BORDER. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE WITH SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES IN AN OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. SOUNDING SHOW AN ALMOST
SATURATED LAYER FORMING BETWEEN 6 AND 9K FT JUST AROUND DAYBREAK.
OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE BY DAYBREAK. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN
BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY EARLY MORNING WITH COLDEST READINGS INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL
THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL
FILTER THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE
CWA. THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
KEEP HIGHS ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY
WHEN MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH
CAA WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING
TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING
BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AS THE LOW IS RAPIDLY
PULLING AWAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOOKS LIKE SOME FORM
OF A STRATOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT FAVORABLE...THE HEAVY RAINS COULD HELP TO PRODUCE MVFR FOG JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THANKSGIVING DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. A
STRATOCU CEILING MAY FORM OVER OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING
FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. ALL LOCAL WATERS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AS OFF SHORE FLOW DIMINISHES TO 10
TO 15 KT.

WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SFC LOW CROSSING
THE HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. THIS
WILL KICK SEAS BACK UP NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT
BY THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD
DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL












000
FXUS62 KILM 261932
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL DRY OUT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WILL ADVECT IN PLENTY OF
DRY AND COOL AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH
PAST 50 UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL HOLD RIGHT AROUND 50 AS CAA OFFSETS ANY
SUNSHINE. MOST PLACES WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
BEFORE SUNSET EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW COLUMN DRYING OUT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW
5K FT LINGERING THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST. THEREFORE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS BUT NOT EXPECTING
TOTAL SKI CLEARING. PCP WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ALONG THE
CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY
THIS EVENING. STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 15C
IN WARM AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO
0C BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH REACHING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SW AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER VA/NC BORDER. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE WITH SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES IN AN OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. SOUNDING SHOW AN ALMOST
SATURATED LAYER FORMING BETWEEN 6 AND 9K FT JUST AROUND DAYBREAK.
OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE BY DAYBREAK. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN
BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY EARLY MORNING WITH COLDEST READINGS INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL
THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL
FILTER THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE
CWA. THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
KEEP HIGHS ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY
WHEN MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH
CAA WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING
TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING
BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AS THE LOW IS RAPIDLY
PULLING AWAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOOKS LIKE SOME FORM
OF A STRATOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT FAVORABLE...THE HEAVY RAINS COULD HELP TO PRODUCE MVFR FOG JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THANKSGIVING DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. A
STRATOCU CEILING MAY FORM OVER OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING
FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. ALL LOCAL WATERS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AS OFF SHORE FLOW DIMINISHES TO 10
TO 15 KT.

WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SFC LOW CROSSING
THE HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. THIS
WILL KICK SEAS BACK UP NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT
BY THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD
DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL













000
FXUS62 KILM 261930
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL DRY OUT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WILL ADVECT IN PLENTY OF
DRY AND COOL AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH
PAST 50 UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL HOLD RIGHT AROUND 50 AS CAA OFFSETS ANY
SUNSHINE. MOST PLACES WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
BEFORE SUNSET EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW COLUMN DRYING OUT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW
5K FT LINGERING THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST. THEREFORE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS BUT NOT EXPECTING
TOTAL SKI CLEARING. PCP WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ALONG THE
CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY
THIS EVENING. STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 15C
IN WARM AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO
0C BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH REACHING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SW AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER VA/NC BORDER. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE WITH SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES IN AN OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. SOUNDING SHOW AN ALMOST
SATURATED LAYER FORMING BETWEEN 6 AND 9K FT JUST AROUND DAYBREAK.
OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE BY DAYBREAK. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN
BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY EARLY MORNING WITH COLDEST READINGS INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL
THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL
FILTER THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE
CWA. THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
KEEP HIGHS ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY
WHEN MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH
CAA WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING
TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING
BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AS THE LOW IS RAPIDLY
PULLING AWAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOOKS LIKE SOME FORM
OF A STRATOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT FAVORABLE...THE HEAVY RAINS COULD HELP TO PRODUCE MVFR FOG JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THANKSGIVING DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. A
STRATOCU CEILING MAY FORM OVER OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING
FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW THROUGH
THE DAY. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS OVER ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AS OFF SHORE FLOW
DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KT.

WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW CROSSING THE
HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT
BY THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD
DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 261930
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL DRY OUT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WILL ADVECT IN PLENTY OF
DRY AND COOL AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH
PAST 50 UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL HOLD RIGHT AROUND 50 AS CAA OFFSETS ANY
SUNSHINE. MOST PLACES WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
BEFORE SUNSET EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW COLUMN DRYING OUT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW
5K FT LINGERING THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST. THEREFORE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS BUT NOT EXPECTING
TOTAL SKI CLEARING. PCP WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ALONG THE
CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY
THIS EVENING. STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 15C
IN WARM AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO
0C BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH REACHING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SW AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER VA/NC BORDER. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE WITH SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES IN AN OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. SOUNDING SHOW AN ALMOST
SATURATED LAYER FORMING BETWEEN 6 AND 9K FT JUST AROUND DAYBREAK.
OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE BY DAYBREAK. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN
BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY EARLY MORNING WITH COLDEST READINGS INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL
THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL
FILTER THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE
CWA. THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
KEEP HIGHS ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY
WHEN MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH
CAA WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING
TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING
BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AS THE LOW IS RAPIDLY
PULLING AWAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOOKS LIKE SOME FORM
OF A STRATOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT FAVORABLE...THE HEAVY RAINS COULD HELP TO PRODUCE MVFR FOG JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THANKSGIVING DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. A
STRATOCU CEILING MAY FORM OVER OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING
FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW THROUGH
THE DAY. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS OVER ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AS OFF SHORE FLOW
DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KT.

WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW CROSSING THE
HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT
BY THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD
DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL










000
FXUS62 KILM 261710
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1128 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA THROUGH TODAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...TEMPS STARTED OUT OVER 70 DEGREES
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND IN
THE 50S IN THE COOLER GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END. BURST
OF HEAVIER RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALIGNED ALONG THIS
SHARP BOUNDARY. WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING ON THE BACK
END WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT PCP THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY
PLENTY OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA IN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK END. PCP WATER VALUES
AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL
DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY THIS EVENING. THE BACK END OF THE
CLOUDS WAS JUST ENTERING THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AND SKIES TO CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FROM W-SW TO E-NE.

STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 15C IN WARM AIR
MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO 0C BY THIS
EVENING. TEMPS DROPPED A GOOD 20 DEGREES IN JUST OVER AN HOUR
AFTER THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S WEST TO LOW
50S EAST THIS MORNING MAY DROP MORE DEGREES BEFORE STABILIZING THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COOL TODAY...MORE LIKE 40S
IN MOST PLACES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS APPROACHING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND SOME PASSING CLOUDS IN AN
OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ALOFT UP OVERNIGHT
BUT CONTINUED CAA WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY
EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL
THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL
FILTER THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE
CWA. THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
KEEP HIGHS ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY
WHEN MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH
CAA WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING
TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING
BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AS THE LOW IS RAPIDLY
PULLING AWAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOOKS LIKE SOME FORM
OF A STRATOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT FAVORABLE...THE HEAVY RAINS COULD HELP TO PRODUCE MVFR FOG JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THANKSGIVING DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. A
STRATOCU CEILING MAY FORM OVER OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING
FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW THROUGH
THE DAY. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS OVER ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AS OFF SHORE FLOW
DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KT.

WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW CROSSING THE
HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT
BY THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD
DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL















000
FXUS62 KILM 261710
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1128 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA THROUGH TODAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...TEMPS STARTED OUT OVER 70 DEGREES
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND IN
THE 50S IN THE COOLER GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END. BURST
OF HEAVIER RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALIGNED ALONG THIS
SHARP BOUNDARY. WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING ON THE BACK
END WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT PCP THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY
PLENTY OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA IN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK END. PCP WATER VALUES
AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL
DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY THIS EVENING. THE BACK END OF THE
CLOUDS WAS JUST ENTERING THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AND SKIES TO CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FROM W-SW TO E-NE.

STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 15C IN WARM AIR
MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO 0C BY THIS
EVENING. TEMPS DROPPED A GOOD 20 DEGREES IN JUST OVER AN HOUR
AFTER THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S WEST TO LOW
50S EAST THIS MORNING MAY DROP MORE DEGREES BEFORE STABILIZING THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COOL TODAY...MORE LIKE 40S
IN MOST PLACES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS APPROACHING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND SOME PASSING CLOUDS IN AN
OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ALOFT UP OVERNIGHT
BUT CONTINUED CAA WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY
EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL
THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL
FILTER THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE
CWA. THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
KEEP HIGHS ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY
WHEN MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH
CAA WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING
TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING
BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AS THE LOW IS RAPIDLY
PULLING AWAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOOKS LIKE SOME FORM
OF A STRATOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT FAVORABLE...THE HEAVY RAINS COULD HELP TO PRODUCE MVFR FOG JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THANKSGIVING DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. A
STRATOCU CEILING MAY FORM OVER OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING
FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW THROUGH
THE DAY. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS OVER ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AS OFF SHORE FLOW
DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KT.

WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW CROSSING THE
HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT
BY THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD
DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
















000
FXUS62 KILM 261628
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1128 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA THROUGH TODAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...TEMPS STARTED OUT OVER 70 DEGREES
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND IN
THE 50S IN THE COOLER GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END. BURST
OF HEAVIER RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALIGNED ALONG THIS
SHARP BOUNDARY. WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING ON THE BACK
END WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT PCP THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY
PLENTY OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA IN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK END. PCP WATER VALUES
AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL
DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY THIS EVENING. THE BACK END OF THE
CLOUDS WAS JUST ENTERING THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AND SKIES TO CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FROM W-SW TO E-NE.

STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 15C IN WARM AIR
MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO 0C BY THIS
EVENING. TEMPS DROPPED A GOOD 20 DEGREES IN JUST OVER AN HOUR
AFTER THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S WEST TO LOW
50S EAST THIS MORNING MAY DROP MORE DEGREES BEFORE STABILIZING THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COOL TODAY...MORE LIKE 40S IN MOST
PLACES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS APPROACHING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND SOME PASSING CLOUDS IN AN
OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ALOFT UP OVERNIGHT
BUT CONTINUED CAA WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY
EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL
THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL FILTER
THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA.
THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL KEEP HIGHS
ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WHEN
MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH CAA
WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING TO A
DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING
BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AS THE LOW IS RAPIDLY
PULLING AWAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOOKS LIKE SOME FORM
OF A STRATOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT FAVORABLE...THE HEAVY RAINS COULD HELP TO PRODUCE MVFR FOG JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THANKSGIVING DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. A
STRATOCU CEILING MAY FORM OVER OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING
FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW THROUGH
THE DAY. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS OVER ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AS OFF SHORE FLOW
DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KT.

WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW CROSSING THE
HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT
BY THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD
DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL












000
FXUS62 KILM 261628
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1128 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA THROUGH TODAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...TEMPS STARTED OUT OVER 70 DEGREES
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND IN
THE 50S IN THE COOLER GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END. BURST
OF HEAVIER RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALIGNED ALONG THIS
SHARP BOUNDARY. WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING ON THE BACK
END WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT PCP THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY
PLENTY OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA IN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK END. PCP WATER VALUES
AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL
DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY THIS EVENING. THE BACK END OF THE
CLOUDS WAS JUST ENTERING THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AND SKIES TO CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FROM W-SW TO E-NE.

STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 15C IN WARM AIR
MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO 0C BY THIS
EVENING. TEMPS DROPPED A GOOD 20 DEGREES IN JUST OVER AN HOUR
AFTER THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S WEST TO LOW
50S EAST THIS MORNING MAY DROP MORE DEGREES BEFORE STABILIZING THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COOL TODAY...MORE LIKE 40S IN MOST
PLACES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS APPROACHING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND SOME PASSING CLOUDS IN AN
OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ALOFT UP OVERNIGHT
BUT CONTINUED CAA WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY
EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL
THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL FILTER
THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA.
THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL KEEP HIGHS
ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WHEN
MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH CAA
WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING TO A
DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING
BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AS THE LOW IS RAPIDLY
PULLING AWAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOOKS LIKE SOME FORM
OF A STRATOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT FAVORABLE...THE HEAVY RAINS COULD HELP TO PRODUCE MVFR FOG JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THANKSGIVING DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. A
STRATOCU CEILING MAY FORM OVER OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING
FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW THROUGH
THE DAY. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS OVER ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AS OFF SHORE FLOW
DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KT.

WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW CROSSING THE
HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT
BY THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD
DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL













000
FXUS62 KILM 261551
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1051 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA THROUGH TODAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...TEMPS STARTED OUT OVER 70 DEGREES
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND IN
THE 50S IN THE COOLER GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END. BURST
OF HEAVIER RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALIGNED ALONG THIS
SHARP BOUNDARY. WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING ON THE BACK
END WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT PCP THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY
PLENTY OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA IN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK END. PCP WATER VALUES
AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL
DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY THIS EVENING. THE BACK END OF THE
CLOUDS WAS JUST ENTERING THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AND SKIES TO CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FROM W-SW TO E-NE.

STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 15C IN WARM AIR
MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO 0C BY THIS
EVENING. TEMPS DROPPED A GOOD 20 DEGREES IN JUST OVER AN HOUR
AFTER THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S WEST TO LOW
50S EAST THIS MORNING MAY DROP MORE DEGREES BEFORE STABILIZING THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COOL TODAY...MORE LIKE 40S IN MOST
PLACES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS APPROACHING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND SOME PASSING CLOUDS IN AN
OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ALOFT UP OVERNIGHT
BUT CONTINUED CAA WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY
EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL
THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL FILTER
THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA.
THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL KEEP HIGHS
ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WHEN
MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH CAA
WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING TO A
DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING
BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE NEARING ILM AS IT TRACKS UP THE COAST.
MODERATE RAIN HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT AS THE LOW PASSES...WRAP
AROUND PRECIP SHOULD COMMENCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE...WITH DEEP MOISTURE LASTING
THROUGH 16Z. THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL SHUT OFF AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EMERGING AFTER 21Z. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE REPLACE WITH
A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BIT OF IT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW THROUGH
THE DAY. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS OVER ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AS OFF SHORE FLOW
DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KT.

WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW CROSSING THE
HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT
BY THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD
DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL










000
FXUS62 KILM 261551
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1051 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA THROUGH TODAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...TEMPS STARTED OUT OVER 70 DEGREES
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND IN
THE 50S IN THE COOLER GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END. BURST
OF HEAVIER RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALIGNED ALONG THIS
SHARP BOUNDARY. WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING ON THE BACK
END WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT PCP THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY
PLENTY OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA IN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK END. PCP WATER VALUES
AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL
DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY THIS EVENING. THE BACK END OF THE
CLOUDS WAS JUST ENTERING THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AND SKIES TO CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FROM W-SW TO E-NE.

STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 15C IN WARM AIR
MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO 0C BY THIS
EVENING. TEMPS DROPPED A GOOD 20 DEGREES IN JUST OVER AN HOUR
AFTER THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S WEST TO LOW
50S EAST THIS MORNING MAY DROP MORE DEGREES BEFORE STABILIZING THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COOL TODAY...MORE LIKE 40S IN MOST
PLACES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS APPROACHING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND SOME PASSING CLOUDS IN AN
OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ALOFT UP OVERNIGHT
BUT CONTINUED CAA WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY
EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL
THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL FILTER
THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA.
THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL KEEP HIGHS
ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WHEN
MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH CAA
WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING TO A
DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING
BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE NEARING ILM AS IT TRACKS UP THE COAST.
MODERATE RAIN HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT AS THE LOW PASSES...WRAP
AROUND PRECIP SHOULD COMMENCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE...WITH DEEP MOISTURE LASTING
THROUGH 16Z. THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL SHUT OFF AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EMERGING AFTER 21Z. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE REPLACE WITH
A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BIT OF IT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW THROUGH
THE DAY. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS OVER ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AS OFF SHORE FLOW
DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KT.

WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW CROSSING THE
HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT
BY THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD
DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 261122
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ANALYSIS OF SURFACE AND BUOY OBS SHOWS STALLED FRONT REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE WITH A DEEPENING FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHING THE COAST OF
GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN SC. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS LOW WILL
MOVE ALONG THE COAST OR JUST INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE CAPE FEAR REGION BY AROUND DAYBREAK.
THEREAFTER...A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE LOW WILL
DEEPEN WHILE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED ALONG WITH IT...WITH THE COLUMN
DRYING DRAMATICALLY AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE UPPER LAYERS...AN H/5 LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OVER EASTERN CONUS BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS A COUPLE OF STRONG S/W TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE.

MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOST PLACES EARLY TODAY
WITH PRECIPITATION SHUTTING DOWN FROM ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST STARTING
LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE COLUMN DRYS OUT. GIVEN PRESENT AND FORECAST PRECIP
RATES IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE QPF TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE. IT WILL BE MORE LIKE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT.

COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP IN EARNEST AS THE DEEPENING SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...GIVING US AN ATYPICAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LIKELY SET THIS MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S
ALONG THE COAST. ONGOING COLD SURGE WILL LIKEWISE LEAD TO TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL
THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL FILTER
THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA.
THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL KEEP HIGHS
ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WHEN
MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH CAA
WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING TO A
DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING
BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE NEARING ILM AS IT TRACKS UP THE COAST.
MODERATE RAIN HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT AS THE LOW PASSES...WRAP
AROUND PRECIP SHOULD COMMENCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE...WITH DEEP MOISTURE LASTING
THROUGH 16Z. THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL SHUT OFF AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EMERGING AFTER 21Z. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE REPLACE WITH
A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BIT OF IT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG...VARIABLE AND
GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30 KTS AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT
BY THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD
DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 261121
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
618 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...ANALYSIS OF SURFACE AND BUOY OBS SHOWS
STALLED FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH A DEEPENING FRONTAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE COAST OF GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN SC. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST OR JUST INLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE CAPE
FEAR REGION BY AROUND DAYBREAK. THEREAFTER...A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WHILE MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
ALONG WITH IT...WITH THE COLUMN DRYING DRAMATICALLY AS THE DEEP
LAYER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE
UPPER LAYERS...AN H/5 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OVER EASTERN
CONUS BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS A COUPLE OF STRONG S/W
TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE.

MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOST PLACES EARLY TODAY
WITH PRECIPITATION SHUTTING DOWN FROM ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST STARTING
LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE COLUMN DRYS OUT. GIVEN PRESENT AND FORECAST PRECIP
RATES IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE QPF TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE. IT WILL BE MORE LIKE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT.

COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP IN EARNEST AS THE DEEPENING SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...GIVING US AN ATYPICAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LIKELY SET THIS MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S
ALONG THE COAST. ONGOING COLD SURGE WILL LIKEWISE LEAD TO TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL
THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL FILTER
THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA.
THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL KEEP HIGHS
ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WHEN
MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH CAA
WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING TO A
DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING
BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE NEARING ILM AS IT TRACKS UP THE COAST.
MODERATE RAIN HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT AS THE LOW PASSES...WRAP
AROUND PRECIP SHOULD COMMENCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE...WITH DEEP MOISTURE LASTING
THROUGH 16Z. THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL SHUT OFF AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EMERGING AFTER 21Z. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE REPLACE WITH
A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BIT OF IT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONT STALLED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG...VARIABLE AND GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30
KTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT
BY THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD
DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/JDW












000
FXUS62 KILM 261121
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
618 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...ANALYSIS OF SURFACE AND BUOY OBS SHOWS
STALLED FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH A DEEPENING FRONTAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE COAST OF GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN SC. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST OR JUST INLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE CAPE
FEAR REGION BY AROUND DAYBREAK. THEREAFTER...A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WHILE MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
ALONG WITH IT...WITH THE COLUMN DRYING DRAMATICALLY AS THE DEEP
LAYER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE
UPPER LAYERS...AN H/5 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OVER EASTERN
CONUS BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS A COUPLE OF STRONG S/W
TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE.

MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOST PLACES EARLY TODAY
WITH PRECIPITATION SHUTTING DOWN FROM ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST STARTING
LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE COLUMN DRYS OUT. GIVEN PRESENT AND FORECAST PRECIP
RATES IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE QPF TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE. IT WILL BE MORE LIKE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT.

COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP IN EARNEST AS THE DEEPENING SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...GIVING US AN ATYPICAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LIKELY SET THIS MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S
ALONG THE COAST. ONGOING COLD SURGE WILL LIKEWISE LEAD TO TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL
THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL FILTER
THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA.
THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL KEEP HIGHS
ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WHEN
MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH CAA
WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING TO A
DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING
BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE NEARING ILM AS IT TRACKS UP THE COAST.
MODERATE RAIN HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT AS THE LOW PASSES...WRAP
AROUND PRECIP SHOULD COMMENCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE...WITH DEEP MOISTURE LASTING
THROUGH 16Z. THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL SHUT OFF AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EMERGING AFTER 21Z. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE REPLACE WITH
A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BIT OF IT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONT STALLED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG...VARIABLE AND GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30
KTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT
BY THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD
DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/JDW













000
FXUS62 KILM 260834
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...ANALYSIS OF SURFACE AND BUOY OBS SHOWS
STALLED FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH A DEEPENING FRONTAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE COAST OF GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN SC. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST OR JUST INLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE CAPE
FEAR REGION BY AROUND DAYBREAK. THEREAFTER...A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WHILE MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
ALONG WITH IT...WITH THE COLUMN DRYING DRAMATICALLY AS THE DEEP
LAYER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE
UPPER LAYERS...AN H/5 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OVER EASTERN
CONUS BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS A COUPLE OF STRONG S/W
TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE.

MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOST PLACES EARLY TODAY
WITH PRECIPITATION SHUTTING DOWN FROM ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST STARTING
LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE COLUMN DRYS OUT. GIVEN PRESENT AND FORECAST PRECIP
RATES IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE QPF TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE. IT WILL BE MORE LIKE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT.

COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP IN EARNEST AS THE DEEPENING SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...GIVING US AN ATYPICAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LIKELY SET THIS MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S
ALONG THE COAST. ONGOING COLD SURGE WILL LIKEWISE LEAD TO TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL
THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL FILTER
THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA.
THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL KEEP HIGHS
ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WHEN
MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH CAA
WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING TO A
DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING
BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY IFR/LIFR CIGS TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH RAIN CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. VSBYS
WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS IN PATCHES OF HEAVIER PCPN. ALTHOUGH
A BRIEF LULL IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK...MORE SHOULD
SPREAD OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE COAST
ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BY 12Z AS THE LOW SKIRTS OUR COAST.
THE ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT DURING
THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO
MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER 18Z...RAIN WILL DIMINISH AND DRIER
W-NW FLOW WILL PROMOTE FURTHER CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 00Z THU AS WEST WINDS DIMINISH TO 5
KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONT STALLED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG...VARIABLE AND GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30
KTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT
BY THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD
DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK
MARINE...REK/JDW










000
FXUS62 KILM 260834
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...ANALYSIS OF SURFACE AND BUOY OBS SHOWS
STALLED FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH A DEEPENING FRONTAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE COAST OF GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN SC. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST OR JUST INLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE CAPE
FEAR REGION BY AROUND DAYBREAK. THEREAFTER...A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WHILE MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
ALONG WITH IT...WITH THE COLUMN DRYING DRAMATICALLY AS THE DEEP
LAYER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE
UPPER LAYERS...AN H/5 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OVER EASTERN
CONUS BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS A COUPLE OF STRONG S/W
TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE.

MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOST PLACES EARLY TODAY
WITH PRECIPITATION SHUTTING DOWN FROM ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST STARTING
LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE COLUMN DRYS OUT. GIVEN PRESENT AND FORECAST PRECIP
RATES IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE QPF TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE. IT WILL BE MORE LIKE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT.

COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP IN EARNEST AS THE DEEPENING SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...GIVING US AN ATYPICAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LIKELY SET THIS MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S
ALONG THE COAST. ONGOING COLD SURGE WILL LIKEWISE LEAD TO TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL
THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL FILTER
THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA.
THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL KEEP HIGHS
ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WHEN
MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH CAA
WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING TO A
DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING
BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY IFR/LIFR CIGS TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH RAIN CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. VSBYS
WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS IN PATCHES OF HEAVIER PCPN. ALTHOUGH
A BRIEF LULL IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK...MORE SHOULD
SPREAD OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE COAST
ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BY 12Z AS THE LOW SKIRTS OUR COAST.
THE ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT DURING
THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO
MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER 18Z...RAIN WILL DIMINISH AND DRIER
W-NW FLOW WILL PROMOTE FURTHER CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 00Z THU AS WEST WINDS DIMINISH TO 5
KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONT STALLED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG...VARIABLE AND GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30
KTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT
BY THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD
DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK
MARINE...REK/JDW









000
FXUS62 KILM 260524
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1224 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 12:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SO FAR SO GOOD WITH THE EARLIER CHANGES TO QPF AMOUNTS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A NARROW BAND OVER WILMINGTON WHICH IS DROPPING
FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN NOW...RATES ARE 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR OR LESS
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR COMPOSITES SOUTH TO
THE FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE SHOW A SIZABLE GAP IN RAINFALL... PERHAPS
KEEPING THOSE RED CLAY ROADS A LITTLE LESS MUDDY THAN THEY
OTHERWISE MIGHT BE. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR PRECIPITATION INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 3-5
HOURS.

LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THE SYNOPTIC LOW MAY ACTUALLY MOVE
INLAND BRIEFLY ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 11-12Z WED. A TRACK
THIS FAR WEST WOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN WILMINGTON IN THE 60S
DUE TO ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. I HAVE TWEAKED THE IMPLIED SYNOPTIC
LOW TRACK A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST...JUST NICKING BALD HEAD
ISLAND BEFORE DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 700 PM FOLLOWS...

WE ARE ENTERING THE PERIOD OF WHAT SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-TO-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT NOW. 305K-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT FORECASTS FROM THE 18Z NAM OR GFS SUGGEST IT SHOULD
BE POURING EVERYWHERE! HOWEVER THE BROAD-SCALE RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT: WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OFFSHORE EAST OF JAX IS PRODUCING
DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING THAT IS NEGATIVELY IMPACTING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. THIS
IS A CLASSIC PROBLEM WE SEE LOCALLY DURING THE COOL SEASON THAT HAS
FRANKLY NEVER BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE SYNOPTIC MODELS.

BOTH THE HRRR AND HRRRX (AN EXPERIMENTAL VERSION AVAILABLE ON THE
RAPID REFRESH.NOAA.GOV SERVER) ARE INITIALIZING WITH THE CORRECT
"HOLE" IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND SHOW THIS ANOMALY MAY
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION`S RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE 18Z SYNOPTIC RAINFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC ALSO SEEMS TO AGREE WITH
THIS IDEA OF LESSER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. WITH
THIS IN MIND I HAVE KEPT FORECAST POPS AT 100% (EVERYONE WILL GET AT
LEAST 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN) BUT I HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY. FROM RIGHT NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING IT APPEARS TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE HALF OF AN
INCH...PERHAPS APPROACHING AN INCH ALONG THE COAST IF RAINFALL RATES
CAN INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST
WITH THE FORECAST PATH OF THE LOW MOVING NORTH FROM FLORIDA. 18Z
MODELS CONTINUED THIS TREND AND I HAVE SHIFTED THE IMPLIED TRACK OF
THE LOW IN THE FORECAST WIND GRIDS TO ONLY ABOUT 10 MILES EAST OF
CAPE FEAR LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE THE ADDED IMPACT OF
MAINTAINING A WARMER AIRMASS NEAR THE COAST...PARTICULARLY SE NORTH
CAROLINA...AND I HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES HERE.
FARTHER INLAND THE COLD AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO BLEED IN FROM THE NW
SHORTLY AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE OVERALL TEMP/WIND
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE HUGGING THE COAST WILL BE MOVING
N OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST WED...THE RAIN WILL SHUT OFF FROM
SSW TO NNE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WED
MORNING...BUT EXPECT BY AFTERNOON...THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL HAVE
ENDED ACROSS ALL BUT THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF
AFTERNOON RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS
WED MORNING THROUGHOUT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE...
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE THERE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF WARMER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIR.

ONE VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WED AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER SKIRTS OUR FORECAST AREA
TO THE N LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT. THE
INFLUX OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY THE
COLUMN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
MAY ACTUALLY BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR N.

TEMPS ON WED WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY.
IN FACT HIGHS WILL BE ACHIEVED IN MANY CASES PRIOR TO OR AROUND
SUNRISE. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE COAST
WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FROM EYF TO HYW AND POINTS W. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OF NOT DROP A DEGREE OR TWO. TEMPS WED NIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. EVEN THE COLDEST SPOTS SHOULD
NOT REACH THE FREEZING MARK GIVEN THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WORKING TO THE COAST FROM THE W WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN THU NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS AT 850 MB
THU WILL BE OFFSET BY SUNSHINE AND WE DO EXPECT HIGHS TO STILL REACH
THE MID 50S. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WINDING DOWN
FRI...BUT TEMPS STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE QUICK TO SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE MODIFYING HIGH OFF THE
COAST WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SAT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO SAT
BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRI. EARLY NEXT WEEK 5H RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
NORTH FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX AND FL. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DEPICTED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE YESTERDAY NOW LOOKS
TIMED TO CROSS THE AREA TUE MORNING...WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. FRONT WILL PASS DRY FOLLOWED BY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY IFR/LIFR CIGS TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH RAIN CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. VSBYS
WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS IN PATCHES OF HEAVIER PCPN. ALTHOUGH
A BRIEF LULL IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK...MORE SHOULD
SPREAD OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE COAST
ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BY 12Z AS THE LOW SKIRTS OUR COAST.
THE ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT DURING
THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO
MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER 18Z...RAIN WILL DIMINISH AND DRIER
W-NW FLOW WILL PROMOTE FURTHER CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 00Z THU AS WEST WINDS DIMINISH TO 5
KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING A BIT FARTHER WEST
THAN THE AFTERNOON MODELS INDICATED. I HAVE TWEAKED THE IMPLIED
TRACK OF THE LOW ANOTHER 5 MILES WEST IN THE LATEST GRIDDED WIND
FORECAST...JUST NICKING BALD HEAD ISLAND BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS
WOULD BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 700 PM
FOLLOWS...

THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS ARE IN A LULL CURRENTLY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TO VERY NEAR CAPE FEAR WHICH EXPLAINS
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WE SEE ON SURFACE CHARTS. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES THE LOW SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...GRADUALLY DEEPENING AND PASSING JUST EAST OF
CAPE FEAR BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE FRONT
REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST WE SHOULD NOT SEE VERY STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS THE WATERS
10-20 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR WHERE STRONG SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING
AROUND MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW COULD REACH 25 KNOTS.
CERTAINLY OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 MILES WINDS ARE GOING TO INTENSIFY
QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS WILL BE
IMPORTANT SINCE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY OFFSHORE...AND A
GOOD DEAL OF SOUTHERLY SWELL ENERGY SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THIS REASON THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE 4-6 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WED. WE DO THINK THESE CONDITIONS MAY WANE WED EVE.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
REDEVELOP FOR A TIME LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AS BACKSWELL FROM
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WORKS DOWN THE COAST.
ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR W AND
COASTAL LOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AS SURGE OF
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NW
OR TRANSITIONING TO NW WED MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE
COAST. THE DIRECTION WILL THEN BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WED
NIGHT AND THU. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO NW AND THEN
N. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SAT AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE DEFINED LATER SAT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT FRI MORNING DROP TO 2
TO 3 FT FRI NIGHT AND 2 FT OR LESS SAT AND SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/RJD/III/RGZ






000
FXUS62 KILM 260524
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1224 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 12:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SO FAR SO GOOD WITH THE EARLIER CHANGES TO QPF AMOUNTS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A NARROW BAND OVER WILMINGTON WHICH IS DROPPING
FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN NOW...RATES ARE 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR OR LESS
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR COMPOSITES SOUTH TO
THE FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE SHOW A SIZABLE GAP IN RAINFALL... PERHAPS
KEEPING THOSE RED CLAY ROADS A LITTLE LESS MUDDY THAN THEY
OTHERWISE MIGHT BE. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR PRECIPITATION INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 3-5
HOURS.

LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THE SYNOPTIC LOW MAY ACTUALLY MOVE
INLAND BRIEFLY ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 11-12Z WED. A TRACK
THIS FAR WEST WOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN WILMINGTON IN THE 60S
DUE TO ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. I HAVE TWEAKED THE IMPLIED SYNOPTIC
LOW TRACK A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST...JUST NICKING BALD HEAD
ISLAND BEFORE DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 700 PM FOLLOWS...

WE ARE ENTERING THE PERIOD OF WHAT SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-TO-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT NOW. 305K-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT FORECASTS FROM THE 18Z NAM OR GFS SUGGEST IT SHOULD
BE POURING EVERYWHERE! HOWEVER THE BROAD-SCALE RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT: WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OFFSHORE EAST OF JAX IS PRODUCING
DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING THAT IS NEGATIVELY IMPACTING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. THIS
IS A CLASSIC PROBLEM WE SEE LOCALLY DURING THE COOL SEASON THAT HAS
FRANKLY NEVER BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE SYNOPTIC MODELS.

BOTH THE HRRR AND HRRRX (AN EXPERIMENTAL VERSION AVAILABLE ON THE
RAPID REFRESH.NOAA.GOV SERVER) ARE INITIALIZING WITH THE CORRECT
"HOLE" IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND SHOW THIS ANOMALY MAY
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION`S RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE 18Z SYNOPTIC RAINFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC ALSO SEEMS TO AGREE WITH
THIS IDEA OF LESSER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. WITH
THIS IN MIND I HAVE KEPT FORECAST POPS AT 100% (EVERYONE WILL GET AT
LEAST 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN) BUT I HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY. FROM RIGHT NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING IT APPEARS TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE HALF OF AN
INCH...PERHAPS APPROACHING AN INCH ALONG THE COAST IF RAINFALL RATES
CAN INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST
WITH THE FORECAST PATH OF THE LOW MOVING NORTH FROM FLORIDA. 18Z
MODELS CONTINUED THIS TREND AND I HAVE SHIFTED THE IMPLIED TRACK OF
THE LOW IN THE FORECAST WIND GRIDS TO ONLY ABOUT 10 MILES EAST OF
CAPE FEAR LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE THE ADDED IMPACT OF
MAINTAINING A WARMER AIRMASS NEAR THE COAST...PARTICULARLY SE NORTH
CAROLINA...AND I HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES HERE.
FARTHER INLAND THE COLD AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO BLEED IN FROM THE NW
SHORTLY AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE OVERALL TEMP/WIND
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE HUGGING THE COAST WILL BE MOVING
N OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST WED...THE RAIN WILL SHUT OFF FROM
SSW TO NNE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WED
MORNING...BUT EXPECT BY AFTERNOON...THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL HAVE
ENDED ACROSS ALL BUT THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF
AFTERNOON RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS
WED MORNING THROUGHOUT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE...
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE THERE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF WARMER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIR.

ONE VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WED AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER SKIRTS OUR FORECAST AREA
TO THE N LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT. THE
INFLUX OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY THE
COLUMN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
MAY ACTUALLY BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR N.

TEMPS ON WED WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY.
IN FACT HIGHS WILL BE ACHIEVED IN MANY CASES PRIOR TO OR AROUND
SUNRISE. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE COAST
WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FROM EYF TO HYW AND POINTS W. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OF NOT DROP A DEGREE OR TWO. TEMPS WED NIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. EVEN THE COLDEST SPOTS SHOULD
NOT REACH THE FREEZING MARK GIVEN THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WORKING TO THE COAST FROM THE W WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN THU NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS AT 850 MB
THU WILL BE OFFSET BY SUNSHINE AND WE DO EXPECT HIGHS TO STILL REACH
THE MID 50S. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WINDING DOWN
FRI...BUT TEMPS STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE QUICK TO SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE MODIFYING HIGH OFF THE
COAST WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SAT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO SAT
BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRI. EARLY NEXT WEEK 5H RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
NORTH FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX AND FL. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DEPICTED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE YESTERDAY NOW LOOKS
TIMED TO CROSS THE AREA TUE MORNING...WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. FRONT WILL PASS DRY FOLLOWED BY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY IFR/LIFR CIGS TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH RAIN CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. VSBYS
WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS IN PATCHES OF HEAVIER PCPN. ALTHOUGH
A BRIEF LULL IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK...MORE SHOULD
SPREAD OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE COAST
ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BY 12Z AS THE LOW SKIRTS OUR COAST.
THE ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT DURING
THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO
MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER 18Z...RAIN WILL DIMINISH AND DRIER
W-NW FLOW WILL PROMOTE FURTHER CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 00Z THU AS WEST WINDS DIMINISH TO 5
KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING A BIT FARTHER WEST
THAN THE AFTERNOON MODELS INDICATED. I HAVE TWEAKED THE IMPLIED
TRACK OF THE LOW ANOTHER 5 MILES WEST IN THE LATEST GRIDDED WIND
FORECAST...JUST NICKING BALD HEAD ISLAND BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS
WOULD BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 700 PM
FOLLOWS...

THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS ARE IN A LULL CURRENTLY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TO VERY NEAR CAPE FEAR WHICH EXPLAINS
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WE SEE ON SURFACE CHARTS. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES THE LOW SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...GRADUALLY DEEPENING AND PASSING JUST EAST OF
CAPE FEAR BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE FRONT
REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST WE SHOULD NOT SEE VERY STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS THE WATERS
10-20 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR WHERE STRONG SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING
AROUND MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW COULD REACH 25 KNOTS.
CERTAINLY OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 MILES WINDS ARE GOING TO INTENSIFY
QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS WILL BE
IMPORTANT SINCE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY OFFSHORE...AND A
GOOD DEAL OF SOUTHERLY SWELL ENERGY SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THIS REASON THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE 4-6 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WED. WE DO THINK THESE CONDITIONS MAY WANE WED EVE.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
REDEVELOP FOR A TIME LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AS BACKSWELL FROM
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WORKS DOWN THE COAST.
ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR W AND
COASTAL LOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AS SURGE OF
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NW
OR TRANSITIONING TO NW WED MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE
COAST. THE DIRECTION WILL THEN BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WED
NIGHT AND THU. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO NW AND THEN
N. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SAT AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE DEFINED LATER SAT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT FRI MORNING DROP TO 2
TO 3 FT FRI NIGHT AND 2 FT OR LESS SAT AND SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/RJD/III/RGZ





000
FXUS62 KILM 260252
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
952 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...SO FAR SO GOOD WITH THE EARLIER CHANGES TO
QPF AMOUNTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A NARROW BAND OVER WILMINGTON
WHICH IS DROPPING FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN NOW...RATES ARE 0.05 INCHES PER
HOUR OR LESS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR COMPOSITES
SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE SHOW A SIZABLE GAP IN RAINFALL...
PERHAPS KEEPING THOSE RED CLAY ROADS A LITTLE LESS MUDDY THAN THEY
OTHERWISE MIGHT BE. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR PRECIPITATION INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.

LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THE SYNOPTIC LOW MAY ACTUALLY MOVE
INLAND BRIEFLY ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 11-12Z WED. A TRACK
THIS FAR WEST WOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN WILMINGTON IN THE 60S
DUE TO ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. I HAVE TWEAKED THE IMPLIED SYNOPTIC
LOW TRACK A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST...JUST NICKING BALD HEAD
ISLAND BEFORE DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 700 PM FOLLOWS...

WE ARE ENTERING THE PERIOD OF WHAT SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-TO-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT NOW. 305K-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT FORECASTS FROM THE 18Z NAM OR GFS SUGGEST IT SHOULD
BE POURING EVERYWHERE! HOWEVER THE BROAD-SCALE RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT: WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OFFSHORE EAST OF JAX IS PRODUCING
DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING THAT IS NEGATIVELY IMPACTING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. THIS
IS A CLASSIC PROBLEM WE SEE LOCALLY DURING THE COOL SEASON THAT HAS
FRANKLY NEVER BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE SYNOPTIC MODELS.

BOTH THE HRRR AND HRRRX (AN EXPERIMENTAL VERSION AVAILABLE ON THE
RAPIDREFRESH.NOAA.GOV SERVER) ARE INITIALIZING WITH THE CORRECT
"HOLE" IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND SHOW THIS ANOMALY MAY
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION`S RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE 18Z SYNOPTIC RAINFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC ALSO SEEMS TO AGREE WITH
THIS IDEA OF LESSER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. WITH
THIS IN MIND I HAVE KEPT FORECAST POPS AT 100% (EVERYONE WILL GET AT
LEAST 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN) BUT I HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY. FROM RIGHT NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING IT APPEARS TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE HALF OF AN
INCH...PERHAPS APPROACHING AN INCH ALONG THE COAST IF RAINFALL RATES
CAN INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST
WITH THE FORECAST PATH OF THE LOW MOVING NORTH FROM FLORIDA. 18Z
MODELS CONTINUED THIS TREND AND I HAVE SHIFTED THE IMPLIED TRACK OF
THE LOW IN THE FORECAST WIND GRIDS TO ONLY ABOUT 10 MILES EAST OF
CAPE FEAR LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE THE ADDED IMPACT OF
MAINTAINING A WARMER AIRMASS NEAR THE COAST...PARTICULARLY SE NORTH
CAROLINA...AND I HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES HERE.
FARTHER INLAND THE COLD AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO BLEED IN FROM THE NW
SHORTLY AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE OVERALL TEMP/WIND
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE HUGGING THE COAST WILL BE MOVING
N OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST WED...THE RAIN WILL SHUT OFF FROM
SSW TO NNE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WED
MORNING...BUT EXPECT BY AFTERNOON...THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL HAVE
ENDED ACROSS ALL BUT THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF
AFTERNOON RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS
WED MORNING THROUGHOUT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE...
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE THERE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF WARMER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIR.

ONE VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WED AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER SKIRTS OUR FORECAST AREA
TO THE N LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT. THE
INFLUX OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY THE
COLUMN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
MAY ACTUALLY BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR N.

TEMPS ON WED WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY.
IN FACT HIGHS WILL BE ACHIEVED IN MANY CASES PRIOR TO OR AROUND
SUNRISE. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE COAST
WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FROM EYF TO HYW AND POINTS W. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OF NOT DROP A DEGREE OR TWO. TEMPS WED NIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. EVEN THE COLDEST SPOTS SHOULD
NOT REACH THE FREEZING MARK GIVEN THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WORKING TO THE COAST FROM THE W WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN THU NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS AT 850 MB
THU WILL BE OFFSET BY SUNSHINE AND WE DO EXPECT HIGHS TO STILL REACH
THE MID 50S. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WINDING DOWN
FRI...BUT TEMPS STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE QUICK TO SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE MODIFYING HIGH OFF THE
COAST WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SAT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO SAT
BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRI. EARLY NEXT WEEK 5H RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
NORTH FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX AND FL. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DEPICTED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE YESTERDAY NOW LOOKS
TIMED TO CROSS THE AREA TUE MORNING...WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. FRONT WILL PASS DRY FOLLOWED BY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR AS RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
PROMOTE IFR STRATUS AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BENEATH A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT... BRINGING MORE
PERSISTENT RAIN THAT MAY LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT TIMES.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AND THEN NORTHWEST BY 12Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES UP
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE
AFTN AS THE LOW RACES AWAY AND DRIER AIR IS PULLED INTO THE
CAROLINAS. RAIN SHOULD END BY 18Z AS MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING
A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE AFTERNOON MODELS INDICATED. I HAVE
TWEAKED THE IMPLIED TRACK OF THE LOW ANOTHER 5 MILES WEST IN THE
LATEST GRIDDED WIND FORECAST...JUST NICKING BALD HEAD ISLAND BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 700 PM FOLLOWS...

THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS ARE IN A LULL CURRENTLY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TO VERY NEAR CAPE FEAR WHICH EXPLAINS
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WE SEE ON SURFACE CHARTS. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES THE LOW SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...GRADUALLY DEEPENING AND PASSING JUST EAST OF
CAPE FEAR BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE FRONT
REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST WE SHOULD NOT SEE VERY STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS THE WATERS
10-20 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR WHERE STRONG SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING
AROUND MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW COULD REACH 25 KNOTS.
CERTAINLY OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 MILES WINDS ARE GOING TO INTENSIFY
QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS WILL BE
IMPORTANT SINCE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY OFFSHORE...AND A
GOOD DEAL OF SOUTHERLY SWELL ENERGY SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THIS REASON THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE 4-6 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WED. WE DO THINK THESE CONDITIONS MAY WANE WED EVE.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
REDEVELOP FOR A TIME LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AS BACKSWELL FROM
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WORKS DOWN THE COAST.
ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR W AND
COASTAL LOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AS SURGE OF
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NW
OR TRANSITIONING TO NW WED MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE
COAST. THE DIRECTION WILL THEN BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WED
NIGHT AND THU. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO NW AND THEN
N. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SAT AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE DEFINED LATER SAT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT FRI MORNING DROP TO 2
TO 3 FT FRI NIGHT AND 2 FT OR LESS SAT AND SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 260252
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
952 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...SO FAR SO GOOD WITH THE EARLIER CHANGES TO
QPF AMOUNTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A NARROW BAND OVER WILMINGTON
WHICH IS DROPPING FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN NOW...RATES ARE 0.05 INCHES PER
HOUR OR LESS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR COMPOSITES
SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE SHOW A SIZABLE GAP IN RAINFALL...
PERHAPS KEEPING THOSE RED CLAY ROADS A LITTLE LESS MUDDY THAN THEY
OTHERWISE MIGHT BE. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR PRECIPITATION INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.

LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THE SYNOPTIC LOW MAY ACTUALLY MOVE
INLAND BRIEFLY ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 11-12Z WED. A TRACK
THIS FAR WEST WOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN WILMINGTON IN THE 60S
DUE TO ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. I HAVE TWEAKED THE IMPLIED SYNOPTIC
LOW TRACK A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST...JUST NICKING BALD HEAD
ISLAND BEFORE DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 700 PM FOLLOWS...

WE ARE ENTERING THE PERIOD OF WHAT SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-TO-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT NOW. 305K-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT FORECASTS FROM THE 18Z NAM OR GFS SUGGEST IT SHOULD
BE POURING EVERYWHERE! HOWEVER THE BROAD-SCALE RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT: WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OFFSHORE EAST OF JAX IS PRODUCING
DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING THAT IS NEGATIVELY IMPACTING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. THIS
IS A CLASSIC PROBLEM WE SEE LOCALLY DURING THE COOL SEASON THAT HAS
FRANKLY NEVER BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE SYNOPTIC MODELS.

BOTH THE HRRR AND HRRRX (AN EXPERIMENTAL VERSION AVAILABLE ON THE
RAPIDREFRESH.NOAA.GOV SERVER) ARE INITIALIZING WITH THE CORRECT
"HOLE" IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND SHOW THIS ANOMALY MAY
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION`S RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE 18Z SYNOPTIC RAINFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC ALSO SEEMS TO AGREE WITH
THIS IDEA OF LESSER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. WITH
THIS IN MIND I HAVE KEPT FORECAST POPS AT 100% (EVERYONE WILL GET AT
LEAST 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN) BUT I HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY. FROM RIGHT NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING IT APPEARS TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE HALF OF AN
INCH...PERHAPS APPROACHING AN INCH ALONG THE COAST IF RAINFALL RATES
CAN INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST
WITH THE FORECAST PATH OF THE LOW MOVING NORTH FROM FLORIDA. 18Z
MODELS CONTINUED THIS TREND AND I HAVE SHIFTED THE IMPLIED TRACK OF
THE LOW IN THE FORECAST WIND GRIDS TO ONLY ABOUT 10 MILES EAST OF
CAPE FEAR LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE THE ADDED IMPACT OF
MAINTAINING A WARMER AIRMASS NEAR THE COAST...PARTICULARLY SE NORTH
CAROLINA...AND I HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES HERE.
FARTHER INLAND THE COLD AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO BLEED IN FROM THE NW
SHORTLY AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE OVERALL TEMP/WIND
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE HUGGING THE COAST WILL BE MOVING
N OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST WED...THE RAIN WILL SHUT OFF FROM
SSW TO NNE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WED
MORNING...BUT EXPECT BY AFTERNOON...THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL HAVE
ENDED ACROSS ALL BUT THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF
AFTERNOON RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS
WED MORNING THROUGHOUT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE...
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE THERE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF WARMER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIR.

ONE VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WED AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER SKIRTS OUR FORECAST AREA
TO THE N LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT. THE
INFLUX OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY THE
COLUMN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
MAY ACTUALLY BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR N.

TEMPS ON WED WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY.
IN FACT HIGHS WILL BE ACHIEVED IN MANY CASES PRIOR TO OR AROUND
SUNRISE. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE COAST
WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FROM EYF TO HYW AND POINTS W. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OF NOT DROP A DEGREE OR TWO. TEMPS WED NIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. EVEN THE COLDEST SPOTS SHOULD
NOT REACH THE FREEZING MARK GIVEN THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WORKING TO THE COAST FROM THE W WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN THU NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS AT 850 MB
THU WILL BE OFFSET BY SUNSHINE AND WE DO EXPECT HIGHS TO STILL REACH
THE MID 50S. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WINDING DOWN
FRI...BUT TEMPS STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE QUICK TO SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE MODIFYING HIGH OFF THE
COAST WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SAT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO SAT
BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRI. EARLY NEXT WEEK 5H RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
NORTH FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX AND FL. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DEPICTED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE YESTERDAY NOW LOOKS
TIMED TO CROSS THE AREA TUE MORNING...WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. FRONT WILL PASS DRY FOLLOWED BY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR AS RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
PROMOTE IFR STRATUS AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BENEATH A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT... BRINGING MORE
PERSISTENT RAIN THAT MAY LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT TIMES.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AND THEN NORTHWEST BY 12Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES UP
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE
AFTN AS THE LOW RACES AWAY AND DRIER AIR IS PULLED INTO THE
CAROLINAS. RAIN SHOULD END BY 18Z AS MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING
A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE AFTERNOON MODELS INDICATED. I HAVE
TWEAKED THE IMPLIED TRACK OF THE LOW ANOTHER 5 MILES WEST IN THE
LATEST GRIDDED WIND FORECAST...JUST NICKING BALD HEAD ISLAND BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 700 PM FOLLOWS...

THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS ARE IN A LULL CURRENTLY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TO VERY NEAR CAPE FEAR WHICH EXPLAINS
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WE SEE ON SURFACE CHARTS. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES THE LOW SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...GRADUALLY DEEPENING AND PASSING JUST EAST OF
CAPE FEAR BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE FRONT
REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST WE SHOULD NOT SEE VERY STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS THE WATERS
10-20 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR WHERE STRONG SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING
AROUND MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW COULD REACH 25 KNOTS.
CERTAINLY OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 MILES WINDS ARE GOING TO INTENSIFY
QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS WILL BE
IMPORTANT SINCE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY OFFSHORE...AND A
GOOD DEAL OF SOUTHERLY SWELL ENERGY SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THIS REASON THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE 4-6 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WED. WE DO THINK THESE CONDITIONS MAY WANE WED EVE.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
REDEVELOP FOR A TIME LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AS BACKSWELL FROM
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WORKS DOWN THE COAST.
ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR W AND
COASTAL LOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AS SURGE OF
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NW
OR TRANSITIONING TO NW WED MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE
COAST. THE DIRECTION WILL THEN BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WED
NIGHT AND THU. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO NW AND THEN
N. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SAT AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE DEFINED LATER SAT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT FRI MORNING DROP TO 2
TO 3 FT FRI NIGHT AND 2 FT OR LESS SAT AND SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 252355
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...WE ARE ENTERING THE PERIOD OF WHAT SHOULD BE
THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-TO-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT NOW. 305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT FORECASTS FROM THE 18Z NAM OR
GFS SUGGEST IT SHOULD BE POURING EVERYWHERE! HOWEVER THE BROAD-SCALE
RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT: WIDESPREAD
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OFFSHORE EAST OF
JAX IS PRODUCING DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING THAT IS
NEGATIVELY IMPACTING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS A CLASSIC PROBLEM WE SEE LOCALLY DURING THE
COOL SEASON THAT HAS FRANKLY NEVER BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS.

BOTH THE HRRR AND HRRRX (AN EXPERIMENTAL VERSION AVAILABLE ON THE
RAPIDREFRESH.NOAA.GOV SERVER) ARE INITIALIZING WITH THE CORRECT
"HOLE" IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND SHOW THIS ANOMALY MAY
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION`S RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE 18Z SYNOPTIC RAINFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC ALSO SEEMS TO AGREE WITH
THIS IDEA OF LESSER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. WITH
THIS IN MIND I HAVE KEPT FORECAST POPS AT 100% (EVERYONE WILL GET AT
LEAST 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN) BUT I HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY. FROM RIGHT NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING IT APPEARS TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE HALF OF AN
INCH...PERHAPS APPROACHING AN INCH ALONG THE COAST IF RAINFALL RATES
CAN INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST
WITH THE FORECAST PATH OF THE LOW MOVING NORTH FROM FLORIDA. 18Z
MODELS CONTINUED THIS TREND AND I HAVE SHIFTED THE IMPLIED TRACK OF
THE LOW IN THE FORECAST WIND GRIDS TO ONLY ABOUT 10 MILES EAST OF
CAPE FEAR LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE THE ADDED IMPACT OF
MAINTAINING A WARMER AIRMASS NEAR THE COAST...PARTICULARLY SE NORTH
CAROLINA...AND I HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES HERE.
FARTHER INLAND THE COLD AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO BLEED IN FROM THE NW
SHORTLY AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE OVERALL TEMP/WIND
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE HUGGING THE COAST WILL BE MOVING
N OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST WED...THE RAIN WILL SHUT OFF FROM
SSW TO NNE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WED
MORNING...BUT EXPECT BY AFTERNOON...THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL HAVE
ENDED ACROSS ALL BUT THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF
AFTERNOON RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS
WED MORNING THROUGHOUT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE...
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE THERE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF WARMER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIR.

ONE VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WED AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER SKIRTS OUR FORECAST AREA
TO THE N LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT. THE
INFLUX OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY THE
COLUMN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
MAY ACTUALLY BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR N.

TEMPS ON WED WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY.
IN FACT HIGHS WILL BE ACHIEVED IN MANY CASES PRIOR TO OR AROUND
SUNRISE. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE COAST
WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FROM EYF TO HYW AND POINTS W. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OF NOT DROP A DEGREE OR TWO. TEMPS WED NIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. EVEN THE COLDEST SPOTS SHOULD
NOT REACH THE FREEZING MARK GIVEN THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WORKING TO THE COAST FROM THE W WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN THU NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS AT 850 MB
THU WILL BE OFFSET BY SUNSHINE AND WE DO EXPECT HIGHS TO STILL REACH
THE MID 50S. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WINDING DOWN
FRI...BUT TEMPS STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE QUICK TO SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE MODIFYING HIGH OFF THE
COAST WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SAT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO SAT
BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRI. EARLY NEXT WEEK 5H RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
NORTH FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX AND FL. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DEPICTED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE YESTERDAY NOW LOOKS
TIMED TO CROSS THE AREA TUE MORNING...WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. FRONT WILL PASS DRY FOLLOWED BY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR AS RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
PROMOTE IFR STRATUS AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BENEATH A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT... BRINGING MORE
PERSISTENT RAIN THAT MAY LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT TIMES.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AND THEN NORTHWEST BY 12Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES UP
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE
AFTN AS THE LOW RACES AWAY AND DRIER AIR IS PULLED INTO THE
CAROLINAS. RAIN SHOULD END BY 18Z AS MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS ARE IN A LULL
CURRENTLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TO VERY NEAR
CAPE FEAR WHICH EXPLAINS THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WE SEE ON
SURFACE CHARTS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE LOW SHOULD FOLLOW THE
FRONT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...GRADUALLY DEEPENING AND PASSING JUST
EAST OF CAPE FEAR BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE FRONT
REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST WE SHOULD NOT SEE VERY STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS THE WATERS
10-20 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR WHERE STRONG SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING
AROUND MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW COULD REACH 25 KNOTS.
CERTAINLY OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 MILES WINDS ARE GOING TO INTENSIFY
QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS WILL BE
IMPORTANT SINCE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY OFFSHORE...AND A
GOOD DEAL OF SOUTHERLY SWELL ENERGY SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THIS REASON THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE 4-6 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WED. WE DO THINK THESE CONDITIONS MAY WANE WED EVE.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
REDEVELOP FOR A TIME LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AS BACKSWELL FROM
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WORKS DOWN THE COAST.
ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR W AND
COASTAL LOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AS SURGE OF
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NW
OR TRANSITIONING TO NW WED MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE
COAST. THE DIRECTION WILL THEN BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WED
NIGHT AND THU. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO NW AND THEN
N. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SAT AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE DEFINED LATER SAT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT FRI MORNING DROP TO 2
TO 3 FT FRI NIGHT AND 2 FT OR LESS SAT AND SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 252355
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...WE ARE ENTERING THE PERIOD OF WHAT SHOULD BE
THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-TO-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT NOW. 305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT FORECASTS FROM THE 18Z NAM OR
GFS SUGGEST IT SHOULD BE POURING EVERYWHERE! HOWEVER THE BROAD-SCALE
RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT: WIDESPREAD
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OFFSHORE EAST OF
JAX IS PRODUCING DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING THAT IS
NEGATIVELY IMPACTING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS A CLASSIC PROBLEM WE SEE LOCALLY DURING THE
COOL SEASON THAT HAS FRANKLY NEVER BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS.

BOTH THE HRRR AND HRRRX (AN EXPERIMENTAL VERSION AVAILABLE ON THE
RAPIDREFRESH.NOAA.GOV SERVER) ARE INITIALIZING WITH THE CORRECT
"HOLE" IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND SHOW THIS ANOMALY MAY
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION`S RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE 18Z SYNOPTIC RAINFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC ALSO SEEMS TO AGREE WITH
THIS IDEA OF LESSER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. WITH
THIS IN MIND I HAVE KEPT FORECAST POPS AT 100% (EVERYONE WILL GET AT
LEAST 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN) BUT I HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY. FROM RIGHT NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING IT APPEARS TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE HALF OF AN
INCH...PERHAPS APPROACHING AN INCH ALONG THE COAST IF RAINFALL RATES
CAN INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST
WITH THE FORECAST PATH OF THE LOW MOVING NORTH FROM FLORIDA. 18Z
MODELS CONTINUED THIS TREND AND I HAVE SHIFTED THE IMPLIED TRACK OF
THE LOW IN THE FORECAST WIND GRIDS TO ONLY ABOUT 10 MILES EAST OF
CAPE FEAR LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE THE ADDED IMPACT OF
MAINTAINING A WARMER AIRMASS NEAR THE COAST...PARTICULARLY SE NORTH
CAROLINA...AND I HAVE RAISED FORECAST LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES HERE.
FARTHER INLAND THE COLD AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO BLEED IN FROM THE NW
SHORTLY AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE OVERALL TEMP/WIND
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE HUGGING THE COAST WILL BE MOVING
N OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST WED...THE RAIN WILL SHUT OFF FROM
SSW TO NNE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WED
MORNING...BUT EXPECT BY AFTERNOON...THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL HAVE
ENDED ACROSS ALL BUT THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF
AFTERNOON RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS
WED MORNING THROUGHOUT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE...
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE THERE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF WARMER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIR.

ONE VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WED AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER SKIRTS OUR FORECAST AREA
TO THE N LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT. THE
INFLUX OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY THE
COLUMN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
MAY ACTUALLY BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR N.

TEMPS ON WED WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY.
IN FACT HIGHS WILL BE ACHIEVED IN MANY CASES PRIOR TO OR AROUND
SUNRISE. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE COAST
WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FROM EYF TO HYW AND POINTS W. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OF NOT DROP A DEGREE OR TWO. TEMPS WED NIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. EVEN THE COLDEST SPOTS SHOULD
NOT REACH THE FREEZING MARK GIVEN THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WORKING TO THE COAST FROM THE W WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN THU NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS AT 850 MB
THU WILL BE OFFSET BY SUNSHINE AND WE DO EXPECT HIGHS TO STILL REACH
THE MID 50S. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WINDING DOWN
FRI...BUT TEMPS STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE QUICK TO SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE MODIFYING HIGH OFF THE
COAST WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SAT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO SAT
BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRI. EARLY NEXT WEEK 5H RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
NORTH FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX AND FL. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DEPICTED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE YESTERDAY NOW LOOKS
TIMED TO CROSS THE AREA TUE MORNING...WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. FRONT WILL PASS DRY FOLLOWED BY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR AS RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
PROMOTE IFR STRATUS AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BENEATH A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT... BRINGING MORE
PERSISTENT RAIN THAT MAY LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT TIMES.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AND THEN NORTHWEST BY 12Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES UP
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE
AFTN AS THE LOW RACES AWAY AND DRIER AIR IS PULLED INTO THE
CAROLINAS. RAIN SHOULD END BY 18Z AS MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS ARE IN A LULL
CURRENTLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TO VERY NEAR
CAPE FEAR WHICH EXPLAINS THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WE SEE ON
SURFACE CHARTS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE LOW SHOULD FOLLOW THE
FRONT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...GRADUALLY DEEPENING AND PASSING JUST
EAST OF CAPE FEAR BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE FRONT
REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST WE SHOULD NOT SEE VERY STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS THE WATERS
10-20 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR WHERE STRONG SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING
AROUND MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW COULD REACH 25 KNOTS.
CERTAINLY OFFSHORE BEYOND 20 MILES WINDS ARE GOING TO INTENSIFY
QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS WILL BE
IMPORTANT SINCE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY OFFSHORE...AND A
GOOD DEAL OF SOUTHERLY SWELL ENERGY SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THIS REASON THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE 4-6 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WED. WE DO THINK THESE CONDITIONS MAY WANE WED EVE.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
REDEVELOP FOR A TIME LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AS BACKSWELL FROM
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WORKS DOWN THE COAST.
ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR W AND
COASTAL LOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AS SURGE OF
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NW
OR TRANSITIONING TO NW WED MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE
COAST. THE DIRECTION WILL THEN BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WED
NIGHT AND THU. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO NW AND THEN
N. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SAT AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE DEFINED LATER SAT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT FRI MORNING DROP TO 2
TO 3 FT FRI NIGHT AND 2 FT OR LESS SAT AND SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 252012
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
312 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THEA AREA AROUND THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO OUR
WEST BUT HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP THROUGH THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD AS COLD
FRONT TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT RAIN TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE WEST BEHIND FRONT WELL INLAND BUT WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS JUST ALONG AND OFF
THE COAST WILL BE MORE WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH DEVELOPING
JUST OFF SHORE AS LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN WELL SOUTH OF AREA. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR.

AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
FRONT AND IT WILL DEEPEN BY THIS EVENING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THIS
LOW WILL RIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN INLAND BUT
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW WHICH ALLOWED THE COLUMN TO DRY A
LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NEARLY SATURATED AS A
DEEPENING LOW MOVES UP THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PROVIDING A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. MODELS
SHOW PCP WATER DOWN LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT THEN SHOWS A SPIKE UP THROUGH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE
CAPE FEAR COAST WITH DEEP FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50 TO 60 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASING WITH PCP BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND OFFSHORE WHERE DEEPEST
CONVECTION OCCURS IN BEST CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING.
SHOULD SEE SOME QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCH RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST. MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT THE COAST HAS BEEN
QUITE DRY LATELY AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE WINDS SHIFT WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING IN NORTHERLY FLOW THIS EVE INLAND. AS LOW TRACKS UP THE
COAST OVERNIGHT A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA ON BACK END WHILE WAA WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE FRONT END. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL ACTUALLY WARM THROUGH THIS
EVE AS LOW PRESSURE ADVECTS WARMER AIR ON SHORE. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY
DROP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT TAIL END OF MIN TEMP FORECAST
GRID IN CAA ON THE BACK END OF LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE HUGGING THE COAST WILL BE MOVING
N OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST WED...THE RAIN WILL SHUT OFF FROM
SSW TO NNE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WED
MORNING...BUT EXPECT BY AFTERNOON...THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL HAVE
ENDED ACROSS ALL BUT THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF
AFTERNOON RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS
WED MORNING THROUGHOUT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE...
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE THERE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF WARMER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIR.

ONE VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WED AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER SKIRTS OUR FORECAST AREA
TO THE N LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT. THE
INFLUX OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY THE
COLUMN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
MAY ACTUALLY BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR N.

TEMPS ON WED WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY.
IN FACT HIGHS WILL BE ACHIEVED IN MANY CASES PRIOR TO OR AROUND
SUNRISE. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE COAST
WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FROM EYF TO HYW AND POINTS W. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OF NOT DROP A DEGREE OR TWO. TEMPS WED NIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. EVEN THE COLDEST SPOTS SHOULD
NOT REACH THE FREEZING MARK GIVEN THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WORKING TO THE COAST FROM THE W WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN THU NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS AT 850 MB
THU WILL BE OFFSET BY SUNSHINE AND WE DO EXPECT HIGHS TO STILL REACH
THE MID 50S. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WINDING DOWN
FRI...BUT TEMPS STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE QUICK TO SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE MODIFYING HIGH OFF THE
COAST WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SAT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO SAT
BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRI. EARLY NEXT WEEK 5H RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
NORTH FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX AND FL. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DEPICTED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE YESTERDAY NOW LOOKS
TIMED TO CROSS THE AREA TUE MORNING...WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. FRONT WILL PASS DRY FOLLOWED BY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND EARLY...BUT WILL BE SOLIDLY
IFR TOWARD EVENING. RAIN HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW WITH STRONG
CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE...HOWEVER IT WILL RE-INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. MAINLY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...REALLY VARIABLE WOULD BE A BETTER DESCRIPTION. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE COAST TONIGHT...STRONG LIFT WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY...LEAVING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR LATE WED THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GA/SC COAST AND MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NE
AND INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE COAST BEFORE ALL WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NW AND INCREASE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WED
MORNING. LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS SEAS INCREASE UP TO 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTHERLY PUSH
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING VISIBILITY OVER
THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WED. WE DO THINK THESE CONDITIONS MAY WANE WED EVE.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
REDEVELOP FOR A TIME LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AS BACKSWELL FROM
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WORKS DOWN THE COAST.
ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR W AND
COASTAL LOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AS SURGE OF
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NW
OR TRANSITIONING TO NW WED MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE
COAST. THE DIRECTION WILL THEN BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WED
NIGHT AND THU. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO NW AND THEN
N. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SAT AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE DEFINED LATER SAT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT FRI MORNING DROP TO 2
TO 3 FT FRI NIGHT AND 2 FT OR LESS SAT AND SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 252012
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
312 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THEA AREA AROUND THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO OUR
WEST BUT HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP THROUGH THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD AS COLD
FRONT TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT RAIN TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE WEST BEHIND FRONT WELL INLAND BUT WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS JUST ALONG AND OFF
THE COAST WILL BE MORE WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH DEVELOPING
JUST OFF SHORE AS LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN WELL SOUTH OF AREA. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR.

AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
FRONT AND IT WILL DEEPEN BY THIS EVENING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THIS
LOW WILL RIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN INLAND BUT
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW WHICH ALLOWED THE COLUMN TO DRY A
LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NEARLY SATURATED AS A
DEEPENING LOW MOVES UP THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PROVIDING A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. MODELS
SHOW PCP WATER DOWN LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT THEN SHOWS A SPIKE UP THROUGH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE
CAPE FEAR COAST WITH DEEP FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50 TO 60 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASING WITH PCP BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND OFFSHORE WHERE DEEPEST
CONVECTION OCCURS IN BEST CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING.
SHOULD SEE SOME QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCH RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST. MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT THE COAST HAS BEEN
QUITE DRY LATELY AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE WINDS SHIFT WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING IN NORTHERLY FLOW THIS EVE INLAND. AS LOW TRACKS UP THE
COAST OVERNIGHT A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA ON BACK END WHILE WAA WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE FRONT END. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL ACTUALLY WARM THROUGH THIS
EVE AS LOW PRESSURE ADVECTS WARMER AIR ON SHORE. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY
DROP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT TAIL END OF MIN TEMP FORECAST
GRID IN CAA ON THE BACK END OF LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE HUGGING THE COAST WILL BE MOVING
N OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST WED...THE RAIN WILL SHUT OFF FROM
SSW TO NNE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WED
MORNING...BUT EXPECT BY AFTERNOON...THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL HAVE
ENDED ACROSS ALL BUT THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF
AFTERNOON RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS
WED MORNING THROUGHOUT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE...
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE THERE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF WARMER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIR.

ONE VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WED AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER SKIRTS OUR FORECAST AREA
TO THE N LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT. THE
INFLUX OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY THE
COLUMN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
MAY ACTUALLY BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR N.

TEMPS ON WED WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY.
IN FACT HIGHS WILL BE ACHIEVED IN MANY CASES PRIOR TO OR AROUND
SUNRISE. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE COAST
WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FROM EYF TO HYW AND POINTS W. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OF NOT DROP A DEGREE OR TWO. TEMPS WED NIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. EVEN THE COLDEST SPOTS SHOULD
NOT REACH THE FREEZING MARK GIVEN THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WORKING TO THE COAST FROM THE W WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN THU NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS AT 850 MB
THU WILL BE OFFSET BY SUNSHINE AND WE DO EXPECT HIGHS TO STILL REACH
THE MID 50S. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WINDING DOWN
FRI...BUT TEMPS STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE QUICK TO SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE MODIFYING HIGH OFF THE
COAST WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SAT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO SAT
BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRI. EARLY NEXT WEEK 5H RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
NORTH FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX AND FL. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DEPICTED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE YESTERDAY NOW LOOKS
TIMED TO CROSS THE AREA TUE MORNING...WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. FRONT WILL PASS DRY FOLLOWED BY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND EARLY...BUT WILL BE SOLIDLY
IFR TOWARD EVENING. RAIN HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW WITH STRONG
CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE...HOWEVER IT WILL RE-INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. MAINLY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...REALLY VARIABLE WOULD BE A BETTER DESCRIPTION. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE COAST TONIGHT...STRONG LIFT WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY...LEAVING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR LATE WED THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GA/SC COAST AND MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NE
AND INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE COAST BEFORE ALL WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NW AND INCREASE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WED
MORNING. LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS SEAS INCREASE UP TO 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTHERLY PUSH
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING VISIBILITY OVER
THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WED. WE DO THINK THESE CONDITIONS MAY WANE WED EVE.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
REDEVELOP FOR A TIME LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AS BACKSWELL FROM
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WORKS DOWN THE COAST.
ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR W AND
COASTAL LOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AS SURGE OF
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NW
OR TRANSITIONING TO NW WED MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE
COAST. THE DIRECTION WILL THEN BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WED
NIGHT AND THU. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO NW AND THEN
N. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SAT AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE DEFINED LATER SAT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT FRI MORNING DROP TO 2
TO 3 FT FRI NIGHT AND 2 FT OR LESS SAT AND SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL






000
FXUS62 KILM 251946
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
246 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THEA AREA AROUND THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO OUR
WEST BUT HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP THROUGH THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD AS COLD
FRONT TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT RAIN TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE WEST BEHIND FRONT WELL INLAND BUT WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS JUST ALONG AND OFF
THE COAST WILL BE MORE WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH DEVELOPING
JUST OFF SHORE AS LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN WELL SOUTH OF AREA. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR.

AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
FRONT AND IT WILL DEEPEN BY THIS EVENING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THIS
LOW WILL RIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN INLAND BUT
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW WHICH ALLOWED THE COLUMN TO DRY A
LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NEARLY SATURATED AS A
DEEPENING LOW MOVES UP THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PROVIDING A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. MODELS
SHOW PCP WATER DOWN LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT THEN SHOWS A SPIKE UP THROUGH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE
CAPE FEAR COAST WITH DEEP FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50 TO 60 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASING WITH PCP BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND OFFSHORE WHERE DEEPEST
CONVECTION OCCURS IN BEST CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING.
SHOULD SEE SOME QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT THE COAST HAS BEEN QUITE DRY
LATELY AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE WINDS SHIFT WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING IN NORTHERLY FLOW THIS EVE INLAND. AS LOW TRACKS UP THE
COAST OVERNIGHT A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA ON BACK END WHILE WAA WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE FRONT END. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL ACTUALLY WARM THROUGH THIS
EVE AS LOW PRESSURE ADVECTS WARMER AIR ON SHORE. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY
DROP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT TAIL END OF MIN TEMP FOREACAST
GRID IN CAA ON THE BACK END OF LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.  RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES AWAY TO THE NE.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND EARLY...BUT WILL BE SOLIDLY
IFR TOWARD EVENING. RAIN HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW WITH STRONG
CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE...HOWEVER IT WILL RE-INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. MAINLY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...REALLY VARIABLE WOULD BE A BETTER DESCRIPTION. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE COAST TONIGHT...STRONG LIFT WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY...LEAVING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR LATE WED THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GA/SC COAST AND MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NE
AND INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE COAST BEFORE ALL WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NW AND INCREASE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WED
MORNING. LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS SEAS INCREASE UP TO 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTHERLY PUSH
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING VISIBILITY OVER
THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM
THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.  WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15
KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION.  SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY
WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL










000
FXUS62 KILM 251946
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
246 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THEA AREA AROUND THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO OUR
WEST BUT HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP THROUGH THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD AS COLD
FRONT TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT RAIN TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE WEST BEHIND FRONT WELL INLAND BUT WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS JUST ALONG AND OFF
THE COAST WILL BE MORE WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH DEVELOPING
JUST OFF SHORE AS LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN WELL SOUTH OF AREA. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR.

AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
FRONT AND IT WILL DEEPEN BY THIS EVENING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THIS
LOW WILL RIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN INLAND BUT
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW WHICH ALLOWED THE COLUMN TO DRY A
LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NEARLY SATURATED AS A
DEEPENING LOW MOVES UP THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PROVIDING A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. MODELS
SHOW PCP WATER DOWN LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT THEN SHOWS A SPIKE UP THROUGH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE
CAPE FEAR COAST WITH DEEP FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50 TO 60 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASING WITH PCP BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND OFFSHORE WHERE DEEPEST
CONVECTION OCCURS IN BEST CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING.
SHOULD SEE SOME QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT THE COAST HAS BEEN QUITE DRY
LATELY AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE WINDS SHIFT WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING IN NORTHERLY FLOW THIS EVE INLAND. AS LOW TRACKS UP THE
COAST OVERNIGHT A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA ON BACK END WHILE WAA WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE FRONT END. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL ACTUALLY WARM THROUGH THIS
EVE AS LOW PRESSURE ADVECTS WARMER AIR ON SHORE. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY
DROP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT TAIL END OF MIN TEMP FOREACAST
GRID IN CAA ON THE BACK END OF LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.  RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES AWAY TO THE NE.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND EARLY...BUT WILL BE SOLIDLY
IFR TOWARD EVENING. RAIN HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW WITH STRONG
CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE...HOWEVER IT WILL RE-INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. MAINLY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...REALLY VARIABLE WOULD BE A BETTER DESCRIPTION. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE COAST TONIGHT...STRONG LIFT WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY...LEAVING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR LATE WED THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GA/SC COAST AND MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NE
AND INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE COAST BEFORE ALL WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NW AND INCREASE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WED
MORNING. LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS SEAS INCREASE UP TO 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTHERLY PUSH
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING VISIBILITY OVER
THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM
THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.  WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15
KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION.  SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY
WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 251655
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1153 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE STALLING OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST BUT HAS
BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP THROUGH THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT RAIN TODAY. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT RIGHT OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ALONG
THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THIS LOW WILL RIDE
UP THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN INLAND BUT HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AS FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW COLUMN TO DRY A LITTLE BIT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY SATURATED AS A DEEPENING LOW
MOVES UP THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
SHOW PCP WATER DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE BUT
THEN SHOWS A SPIKE UP THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST WITH DEEPER
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50 TO 60
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. AS LOW PROGRESSES UP THE COAST
WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
W-SW ZONES BY MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASING WITH RAIN BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
SOME QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE WINDS SHIFT WITH A SLIGHT COOLING
IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING TONIGHT BUT AS
LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST OVERNIGHT A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON BACK END OF LOW TOWARD MORNING. MAY
SEE HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE DAY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.  RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES AWAY TO THE NE.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND EARLY...BUT WILL BE SOLIDLY
IFR TOWARD EVENING. RAIN HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW WITH STRONG
CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE...HOWEVER IT WILL RE-INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. MAINLY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...REALLY VARIABLE WOULD BE A BETTER DESCRIPTION. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE COAST TONIGHT...STRONG LIFT WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY...LEAVING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR LATE WED THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST RIDING UP JUST JUST
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NE AND
INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE COAST BEFORE ALL WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO THE NW AND INCREASE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WED MORNING.
LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 4 AM
WED MORNING. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING VISIBILITY OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM
THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.  WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15
KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION.  SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY
WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...











000
FXUS62 KILM 251655
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1153 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE STALLING OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST BUT HAS
BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP THROUGH THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT RAIN TODAY. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT RIGHT OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ALONG
THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THIS LOW WILL RIDE
UP THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN INLAND BUT HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AS FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW COLUMN TO DRY A LITTLE BIT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY SATURATED AS A DEEPENING LOW
MOVES UP THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
SHOW PCP WATER DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE BUT
THEN SHOWS A SPIKE UP THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST WITH DEEPER
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50 TO 60
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. AS LOW PROGRESSES UP THE COAST
WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
W-SW ZONES BY MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASING WITH RAIN BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
SOME QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE WINDS SHIFT WITH A SLIGHT COOLING
IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING TONIGHT BUT AS
LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST OVERNIGHT A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON BACK END OF LOW TOWARD MORNING. MAY
SEE HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE DAY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.  RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES AWAY TO THE NE.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND EARLY...BUT WILL BE SOLIDLY
IFR TOWARD EVENING. RAIN HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW WITH STRONG
CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE...HOWEVER IT WILL RE-INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. MAINLY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...REALLY VARIABLE WOULD BE A BETTER DESCRIPTION. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE COAST TONIGHT...STRONG LIFT WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY...LEAVING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR LATE WED THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST RIDING UP JUST JUST
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NE AND
INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE COAST BEFORE ALL WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO THE NW AND INCREASE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WED MORNING.
LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 4 AM
WED MORNING. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING VISIBILITY OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM
THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.  WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15
KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION.  SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY
WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...












000
FXUS62 KILM 251655
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1153 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE STALLING OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST BUT HAS
BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP THROUGH THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT RAIN TODAY. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT RIGHT OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ALONG
THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THIS LOW WILL RIDE
UP THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN INLAND BUT HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AS FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW COLUMN TO DRY A LITTLE BIT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY SATURATED AS A DEEPENING LOW
MOVES UP THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
SHOW PCP WATER DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE BUT
THEN SHOWS A SPIKE UP THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST WITH DEEPER
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50 TO 60
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. AS LOW PROGRESSES UP THE COAST
WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
W-SW ZONES BY MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASING WITH RAIN BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
SOME QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE WINDS SHIFT WITH A SLIGHT COOLING
IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING TONIGHT BUT AS
LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST OVERNIGHT A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON BACK END OF LOW TOWARD MORNING. MAY
SEE HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE DAY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.  RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES AWAY TO THE NE.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND EARLY...BUT WILL BE SOLIDLY
IFR TOWARD EVENING. RAIN HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW WITH STRONG
CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE...HOWEVER IT WILL RE-INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. MAINLY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...REALLY VARIABLE WOULD BE A BETTER DESCRIPTION. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE COAST TONIGHT...STRONG LIFT WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY...LEAVING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR LATE WED THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST RIDING UP JUST JUST
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NE AND
INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE COAST BEFORE ALL WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO THE NW AND INCREASE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WED MORNING.
LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 4 AM
WED MORNING. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING VISIBILITY OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM
THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.  WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15
KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION.  SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY
WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...











000
FXUS62 KILM 251641
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1141 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE STALLING OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST BUT HAS
BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP THROUGH THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT RAIN TODAY. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT RIGHT OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ALONG
THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THIS LOW WILL RIDE
UP THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN INLAND BUT HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AS FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW COLUMN TO DRY A LITTLE BIT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY SATURATED AS A DEEPENING LOW
MOVES UP THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
SHOW PCP WATER DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE BUT
THEN SHOWS A SPIKE UP THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST WITH DEEPER
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50 TO 60
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. AS LOW PROGRESSES UP THE COAST
WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
W-SW ZONES BY MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASING WITH RAIN BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
SOME QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE WINDS SHIFT WITH A SLIGHT COOLING
IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING TONIGHT BUT AS
LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST OVERNIGHT A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON BACK END OF LOW TOWARD MORNING. MAY
SEE HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE DAY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.  RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES AWAY TO THE NE.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CONVERGENT BAND OF RAIN/CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL SPREAD TO THE COAST BY MID
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN THE PRECIP...LIKELY REACHING IFR AT
ALL TERMINALS BEFORE NOON. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY ROTTEN AVIATION CONDITIONS...LIFR AT
TIMES. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY...BECOMING NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE REGION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST RIDING UP JUST JUST
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NE AND
INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE COAST BEFORE ALL WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO THE NW AND INCREASE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WED MORNING.
LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 4 AM
WED MORNING. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING VISIBILITY OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM
THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.  WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15
KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION.  SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY
WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...









000
FXUS62 KILM 251641
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1141 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE STALLING OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST BUT HAS
BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP THROUGH THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT RAIN TODAY. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT RIGHT OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ALONG
THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THIS LOW WILL RIDE
UP THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN INLAND BUT HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AS FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW COLUMN TO DRY A LITTLE BIT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY SATURATED AS A DEEPENING LOW
MOVES UP THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
SHOW PCP WATER DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE BUT
THEN SHOWS A SPIKE UP THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST WITH DEEPER
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50 TO 60
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. AS LOW PROGRESSES UP THE COAST
WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
W-SW ZONES BY MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASING WITH RAIN BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
SOME QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE WINDS SHIFT WITH A SLIGHT COOLING
IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING TONIGHT BUT AS
LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST OVERNIGHT A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON BACK END OF LOW TOWARD MORNING. MAY
SEE HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE DAY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.  RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES AWAY TO THE NE.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CONVERGENT BAND OF RAIN/CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL SPREAD TO THE COAST BY MID
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN THE PRECIP...LIKELY REACHING IFR AT
ALL TERMINALS BEFORE NOON. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY ROTTEN AVIATION CONDITIONS...LIFR AT
TIMES. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY...BECOMING NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE REGION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST RIDING UP JUST JUST
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NE AND
INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE COAST BEFORE ALL WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO THE NW AND INCREASE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WED MORNING.
LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 4 AM
WED MORNING. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING VISIBILITY OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM
THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.  WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15
KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION.  SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY
WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KILM 251641
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1141 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE STALLING OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST BUT HAS
BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP THROUGH THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT RAIN TODAY. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT RIGHT OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ALONG
THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THIS LOW WILL RIDE
UP THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN INLAND BUT HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AS FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW COLUMN TO DRY A LITTLE BIT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY SATURATED AS A DEEPENING LOW
MOVES UP THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
SHOW PCP WATER DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE BUT
THEN SHOWS A SPIKE UP THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST WITH DEEPER
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50 TO 60
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. AS LOW PROGRESSES UP THE COAST
WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
W-SW ZONES BY MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASING WITH RAIN BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
SOME QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE WINDS SHIFT WITH A SLIGHT COOLING
IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING TONIGHT BUT AS
LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST OVERNIGHT A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON BACK END OF LOW TOWARD MORNING. MAY
SEE HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE DAY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.  RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES AWAY TO THE NE.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CONVERGENT BAND OF RAIN/CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL SPREAD TO THE COAST BY MID
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN THE PRECIP...LIKELY REACHING IFR AT
ALL TERMINALS BEFORE NOON. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY ROTTEN AVIATION CONDITIONS...LIFR AT
TIMES. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY...BECOMING NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE REGION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST RIDING UP JUST JUST
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NE AND
INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE COAST BEFORE ALL WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO THE NW AND INCREASE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WED MORNING.
LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 4 AM
WED MORNING. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING VISIBILITY OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM
THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.  WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15
KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION.  SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY
WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...









000
FXUS62 KILM 251641
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1141 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE STALLING OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST BUT HAS
BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP THROUGH THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT RAIN TODAY. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT RIGHT OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ALONG
THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THIS LOW WILL RIDE
UP THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN INLAND BUT HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AS FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW COLUMN TO DRY A LITTLE BIT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY SATURATED AS A DEEPENING LOW
MOVES UP THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
SHOW PCP WATER DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE BUT
THEN SHOWS A SPIKE UP THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST WITH DEEPER
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50 TO 60
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. AS LOW PROGRESSES UP THE COAST
WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
W-SW ZONES BY MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASING WITH RAIN BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
SOME QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE WINDS SHIFT WITH A SLIGHT COOLING
IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING TONIGHT BUT AS
LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST OVERNIGHT A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON BACK END OF LOW TOWARD MORNING. MAY
SEE HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE DAY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.  RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES AWAY TO THE NE.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CONVERGENT BAND OF RAIN/CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL SPREAD TO THE COAST BY MID
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN THE PRECIP...LIKELY REACHING IFR AT
ALL TERMINALS BEFORE NOON. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY ROTTEN AVIATION CONDITIONS...LIFR AT
TIMES. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY...BECOMING NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE REGION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST RIDING UP JUST JUST
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NE AND
INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE COAST BEFORE ALL WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO THE NW AND INCREASE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WED MORNING.
LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 4 AM
WED MORNING. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING VISIBILITY OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM
THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.  WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15
KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION.  SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY
WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KILM 251122
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING.  COOL AND
WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED T-STORMS TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SOUNDINGS. HAVE
ALSO RAISED POPS TO 100 FOR MANY PLACES...AND AROUND 90 FOR THE
REST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM FOR THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST...WHICH BETTER CAPTURES THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING...MOVING OFFSHORE BY
AROUND NOON. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING JUST OFFSHORE...WITH A POTENT FRONTAL WAVE FORMING ALONG
IT AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING WHILE MOVING TO JUST EAST OF THE CAPE
FEAR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A
DEEPENING H/5 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST AS A STRONG EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN ARE A CERTAINTY TODAY GIVEN THE ABOVE
SCENARIO. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO KEEPING THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE ODD LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY AND SUSTAINED
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
CAPE FEAR REGION. QPF TOTALS WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL...WITH HIGHEST
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES NEAREST THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.  RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES AWAY TO THE NE.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CONVERGENT BAND OF RAIN/CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL SPREAD TO THE COAST BY MID
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN THE PRECIP...LIKELY REACHING IFR AT
ALL TERMINALS BEFORE NOON. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY ROTTEN AVIATION CONDITIONS...LIFR AT
TIMES. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY...BECOMING NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE REGION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...THIS MORNINGS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
EXPIRED ON TIME. THE ONE FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS STILL EVIDENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW MOVING JUST
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WILL NECESSITATE THE RE-ISSUANCE OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE JUST A BIT OF A LULL AS FAR AS WINDS
AND SEAS GO. HOWEVER...FREQUENT PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES...WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
LIMITING EFFECTS ON VISIBILITY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM
THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.  WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15
KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION.  SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY
WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RAN





000
FXUS62 KILM 251122
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING.  COOL AND
WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED T-STORMS TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SOUNDINGS. HAVE
ALSO RAISED POPS TO 100 FOR MANY PLACES...AND AROUND 90 FOR THE
REST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM FOR THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST...WHICH BETTER CAPTURES THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING...MOVING OFFSHORE BY
AROUND NOON. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING JUST OFFSHORE...WITH A POTENT FRONTAL WAVE FORMING ALONG
IT AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING WHILE MOVING TO JUST EAST OF THE CAPE
FEAR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A
DEEPENING H/5 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST AS A STRONG EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN ARE A CERTAINTY TODAY GIVEN THE ABOVE
SCENARIO. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO KEEPING THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE ODD LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY AND SUSTAINED
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
CAPE FEAR REGION. QPF TOTALS WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL...WITH HIGHEST
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES NEAREST THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.  RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES AWAY TO THE NE.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CONVERGENT BAND OF RAIN/CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL SPREAD TO THE COAST BY MID
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN THE PRECIP...LIKELY REACHING IFR AT
ALL TERMINALS BEFORE NOON. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY ROTTEN AVIATION CONDITIONS...LIFR AT
TIMES. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY...BECOMING NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE REGION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...THIS MORNINGS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
EXPIRED ON TIME. THE ONE FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS STILL EVIDENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW MOVING JUST
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WILL NECESSITATE THE RE-ISSUANCE OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE JUST A BIT OF A LULL AS FAR AS WINDS
AND SEAS GO. HOWEVER...FREQUENT PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES...WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
LIMITING EFFECTS ON VISIBILITY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM
THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.  WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15
KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION.  SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY
WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RAN






000
FXUS62 KILM 250847
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING.  COOL AND
WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME STREAMING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN ADVANCE OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM FOR THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST...WHICH BETTER CAPTURES THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE
FRONT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING...MOVING OFFSHORE BY AROUND NOON. A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT STALLING JUST
OFFSHORE...WITH A POTENT FRONTAL WAVE FORMING ALONG IT AND RAPIDLY
DEEPENING WHILE MOVING TO JUST EAST OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION BY
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEEPENING H/5
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST AS A STRONG EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN ARE A CERTAINTY TODAY GIVEN THE ABOVE
SCENARIO. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO KEEPING THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE ODD LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY AND SUSTAINED
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
CAPE FEAR REGION. QPF TOTALS WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL...WITH HIGHEST
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES NEAREST THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.  RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES AWAY TO THE NE.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS THIS MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA. PERIODS OF -RA WILL
CONTINUE STREAMING OVERHEAD WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF IFR BEFORE 12Z...
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EARLIER GFS SOUNDINGS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM SW TO NW AFTER SUNRISE
FOLLOWING FROPA...AND POST-FRONTAL IFR STRATUS APPEARS MOST LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AFTER 12Z. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE -RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
MVFR INLAND. PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 00Z
WED AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 00Z WED WITH
N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS STILL EVIDENT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
LOW MOVING JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WILL NECESSITATE THE RE-ISSUANCE
OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE JUST A BIT OF A LULL AS FAR AS WINDS
AND SEAS GO. HOWEVER...FREQUENT PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES...WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
LIMITING EFFECTS ON VISIBILITY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM
THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.  WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15
KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION.  SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY
WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...REK/BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 250847
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING.  COOL AND
WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME STREAMING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN ADVANCE OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM FOR THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST...WHICH BETTER CAPTURES THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE
FRONT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING...MOVING OFFSHORE BY AROUND NOON. A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT STALLING JUST
OFFSHORE...WITH A POTENT FRONTAL WAVE FORMING ALONG IT AND RAPIDLY
DEEPENING WHILE MOVING TO JUST EAST OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION BY
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEEPENING H/5
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST AS A STRONG EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN ARE A CERTAINTY TODAY GIVEN THE ABOVE
SCENARIO. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO KEEPING THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE ODD LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY AND SUSTAINED
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
CAPE FEAR REGION. QPF TOTALS WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL...WITH HIGHEST
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES NEAREST THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.  RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES AWAY TO THE NE.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS THIS MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA. PERIODS OF -RA WILL
CONTINUE STREAMING OVERHEAD WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF IFR BEFORE 12Z...
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EARLIER GFS SOUNDINGS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM SW TO NW AFTER SUNRISE
FOLLOWING FROPA...AND POST-FRONTAL IFR STRATUS APPEARS MOST LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AFTER 12Z. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE -RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
MVFR INLAND. PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 00Z
WED AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 00Z WED WITH
N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS STILL EVIDENT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
LOW MOVING JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WILL NECESSITATE THE RE-ISSUANCE
OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE JUST A BIT OF A LULL AS FAR AS WINDS
AND SEAS GO. HOWEVER...FREQUENT PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES...WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
LIMITING EFFECTS ON VISIBILITY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM
THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.  WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15
KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION.  SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY
WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...REK/BJR








000
FXUS62 KILM 250533
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1233 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH- CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS
THE NC/TN BORDER REGION. EAST OF THIS FRONT A SOUTHERLY WIND
CONTINUES FROM FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A STRIPE OF DIFLUENCE EXISTS EXTENDING FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO EAST-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THE
RESULT OF ACCELERATING FLOW INTO THE RIGHT- ENTRANCE REGION OF A
250 MB JET STREAK FROM ARKANSAS INTO NEW YORK STATE. THIS
DIVERGENCE HAS SUPPORTED A NARROW BUT PERSISTENT REGION OF
RAINFALL (AND EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION) ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE
REGION INTO LUMBERTON. LATEST HIGH-RES HRRR RUNS SHOW WE SHOULD
ENTER A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS...BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CENTERED
ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE (~750 MB OR 8000 FEET AGL) SHOULD
LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE 18Z GFS HAD A FAIRLY FAST EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS DEPICTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS BY 12Z TUE...THE BULK OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SW
WINDS CONTINUING. GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONT I AM
INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE SLOWER GUIDANCE...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
FORECAST WINDS & TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST AND DECELERATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DEEP MOISTURE BOTH LAG BEHIND AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO DESPITE
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THEN COME
TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER SRN TX SWINGS
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND GIVES IT A WEAK NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. STRONG SSWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS IN ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WHILE WEAK ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
TURNS FLOW INTO THE LOW WEST OF IT...I.E. OVER LANDMASS. THIS
RESULTS IN AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT...850MB TEMPS NEAR 15C
JUST OFF COAST AND DOWN TO 2 C OVER WRN ZONES BY 12Z WED. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST I`VE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING VALUES OF 100-200 UNITS. IT IS
ALSO TOUGH TO RULE OUT A NARROW ZONE OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE IMMEDIATE (MAINLY NC) COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS LOW LEVEL
FORCING MAY EVEN COUPLE WITH DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER
JET CONFIGURATION AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 190KT UPPER JET MOVES
INTO PA. IN FACT GFS CROSS SECTIONS FOR A TIME SHOW ASCENT CLEAR
THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN. WITH AT LEAST SOME CONNECTION TO
GOMEX MOISTURE THIS SETUP COULD EASILY YIELD 2-2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TO PERHAPS AS LATE AS DAYBREAK WED. THEREAFTER
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. LIGHTER RAIN WED
MORNING THEN GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS CRANKING UP BY 18Z. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FRI WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL TROUGH HELPS PUSH REMAINS OF
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SAT. DEEP
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WILL START A STEADY CLIMB BACK TO CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. LATE
IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE NORTH WHILE ECMWF
PUSHES IT SOUTH. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FAVORED BY
WPC...FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS THIS MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA. PERIODS OF -RA WILL
CONTINUE STREAMING OVERHEAD WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF IFR BEFORE 12Z...
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EARLIER GFS SOUNDINGS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM SW TO NW AFTER SUNRISE
FOLLOWING FROPA...AND POST-FRONTAL IFR STRATUS APPEARS MOST LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AFTER 12Z. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE -RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
MVFR INLAND. PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 00Z
WED AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 00Z WED WITH
N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NC-TN BORDER REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
STEADILY EASTWARD TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN INLAND FROM THE COAST
EVEN AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING UNSEASONABLY HUMID AIR NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA
AND THE BAHAMAS. AS THIS SUBTROPICAL AIR CROSSES THE CHILLY
NEARSHORE OCEAN PATCHY SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED... MAINLY ALONG THE
SC COAST ALTHOUGH PATCHY SEA FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST AND POINTS NORTH AS WELL.

THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN INLAND TONIGHT..ALTHOUGH
TOWARD DAYBREAK RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LEADING UP TO A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TWO-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
TUE-WED.

SEAS REMAIN QUITE LARGE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WIND SPEEDS WE ARE
OBSERVING. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM THE RELATIVELY
LONG FETCH OF STRONG WINDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE CAROLINAS OVER
THE PAST THREE DAYS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE SEAS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT BUT A VERY DYNAMIC SETUP
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECAY IN CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS. STRONG
SYSTEM SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THEN CAUSE FAIRLY RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS LOW CRANKS UP AND MOVES BY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAMP UP TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STILL DEEPENING LOW
ACCELERATES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS STILL
LIKELY WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE ENSUING COLD
SURGE AND SEAS WILL SIMILARLY BE HESITANT TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA
BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT THU INTO FRI WILL MAINTAIN
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO FRI. GRADIENT WEAKENS
MIDDAY FRI FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF REMAINS OF DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN
THE REGION. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU INTO FRI WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA/RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/TRA/III/MBB/RGZ





000
FXUS62 KILM 250533
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1233 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH- CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS
THE NC/TN BORDER REGION. EAST OF THIS FRONT A SOUTHERLY WIND
CONTINUES FROM FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A STRIPE OF DIFLUENCE EXISTS EXTENDING FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO EAST-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THE
RESULT OF ACCELERATING FLOW INTO THE RIGHT- ENTRANCE REGION OF A
250 MB JET STREAK FROM ARKANSAS INTO NEW YORK STATE. THIS
DIVERGENCE HAS SUPPORTED A NARROW BUT PERSISTENT REGION OF
RAINFALL (AND EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION) ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE
REGION INTO LUMBERTON. LATEST HIGH-RES HRRR RUNS SHOW WE SHOULD
ENTER A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS...BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CENTERED
ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE (~750 MB OR 8000 FEET AGL) SHOULD
LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE 18Z GFS HAD A FAIRLY FAST EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS DEPICTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS BY 12Z TUE...THE BULK OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SW
WINDS CONTINUING. GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONT I AM
INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE SLOWER GUIDANCE...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
FORECAST WINDS & TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST AND DECELERATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DEEP MOISTURE BOTH LAG BEHIND AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO DESPITE
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THEN COME
TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER SRN TX SWINGS
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND GIVES IT A WEAK NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. STRONG SSWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS IN ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WHILE WEAK ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
TURNS FLOW INTO THE LOW WEST OF IT...I.E. OVER LANDMASS. THIS
RESULTS IN AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT...850MB TEMPS NEAR 15C
JUST OFF COAST AND DOWN TO 2 C OVER WRN ZONES BY 12Z WED. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST I`VE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING VALUES OF 100-200 UNITS. IT IS
ALSO TOUGH TO RULE OUT A NARROW ZONE OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE IMMEDIATE (MAINLY NC) COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS LOW LEVEL
FORCING MAY EVEN COUPLE WITH DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER
JET CONFIGURATION AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 190KT UPPER JET MOVES
INTO PA. IN FACT GFS CROSS SECTIONS FOR A TIME SHOW ASCENT CLEAR
THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN. WITH AT LEAST SOME CONNECTION TO
GOMEX MOISTURE THIS SETUP COULD EASILY YIELD 2-2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TO PERHAPS AS LATE AS DAYBREAK WED. THEREAFTER
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. LIGHTER RAIN WED
MORNING THEN GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS CRANKING UP BY 18Z. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FRI WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL TROUGH HELPS PUSH REMAINS OF
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SAT. DEEP
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WILL START A STEADY CLIMB BACK TO CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. LATE
IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE NORTH WHILE ECMWF
PUSHES IT SOUTH. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FAVORED BY
WPC...FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS THIS MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA. PERIODS OF -RA WILL
CONTINUE STREAMING OVERHEAD WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF IFR BEFORE 12Z...
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EARLIER GFS SOUNDINGS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM SW TO NW AFTER SUNRISE
FOLLOWING FROPA...AND POST-FRONTAL IFR STRATUS APPEARS MOST LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AFTER 12Z. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE -RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
MVFR INLAND. PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 00Z
WED AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 00Z WED WITH
N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NC-TN BORDER REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
STEADILY EASTWARD TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN INLAND FROM THE COAST
EVEN AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING UNSEASONABLY HUMID AIR NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA
AND THE BAHAMAS. AS THIS SUBTROPICAL AIR CROSSES THE CHILLY
NEARSHORE OCEAN PATCHY SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED... MAINLY ALONG THE
SC COAST ALTHOUGH PATCHY SEA FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST AND POINTS NORTH AS WELL.

THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN INLAND TONIGHT..ALTHOUGH
TOWARD DAYBREAK RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LEADING UP TO A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TWO-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
TUE-WED.

SEAS REMAIN QUITE LARGE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WIND SPEEDS WE ARE
OBSERVING. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM THE RELATIVELY
LONG FETCH OF STRONG WINDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE CAROLINAS OVER
THE PAST THREE DAYS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE SEAS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT BUT A VERY DYNAMIC SETUP
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECAY IN CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS. STRONG
SYSTEM SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THEN CAUSE FAIRLY RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS LOW CRANKS UP AND MOVES BY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAMP UP TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STILL DEEPENING LOW
ACCELERATES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS STILL
LIKELY WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE ENSUING COLD
SURGE AND SEAS WILL SIMILARLY BE HESITANT TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA
BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT THU INTO FRI WILL MAINTAIN
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO FRI. GRADIENT WEAKENS
MIDDAY FRI FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF REMAINS OF DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN
THE REGION. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU INTO FRI WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA/RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/TRA/III/MBB/RGZ






000
FXUS62 KILM 250317
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1017 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. COOL
AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS THE NC/TN BORDER REGION. EAST OF THIS
FRONT A SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES FROM FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A STRIPE OF DIFLUENCE
EXISTS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO EAST-CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...THE RESULT OF ACCELERATING FLOW INTO THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK FROM ARKANSAS INTO NEW YORK STATE.
THIS DIVERGENCE HAS SUPPORTED A NARROW BUT PERSISTENT REGION OF
RAINFALL (AND EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION) ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE
REGION INTO LUMBERTON. LATEST HIGH-RES HRRR RUNS SHOW WE SHOULD
ENTER A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS...BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CENTERED
ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE (~750 MB OR 8000 FEET AGL) SHOULD
LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE 18Z GFS HAD A FAIRLY FAST EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS DEPICTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BY 12Z TUE...THE BULK OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS A
MUCH SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SW WINDS
CONTINUING. GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONT I AM INCLINED TO
BELIEVE THE SLOWER GUIDANCE...AND HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST WINDS &
TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST AND DECELERATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DEEP MOISTURE BOTH LAG BEHIND AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO DESPITE
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THEN COME
TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER SRN TX SWINGS
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND GIVES IT A WEAK NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. STRONG SSWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS IN ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WHILE WEAK ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
TURNS FLOW INTO THE LOW WEST OF IT...I.E. OVER LANDMASS. THIS
RESULTS IN AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT...850MB TEMPS NEAR 15C
JUST OFF COAST AND DOWN TO 2 C OVER WRN ZONES BY 12Z WED. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST I`VE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING VALUES OF 100-200 UNITS. IT IS
ALSO TOUGH TO RULE OUT A NARROW ZONE OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE IMMEDIATE (MAINLY NC) COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS LOW LEVEL
FORCING MAY EVEN COUPLE WITH DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER
JET CONFIGURATION AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 190KT UPPER JET MOVES
INTO PA. IN FACT GFS CROSS SECTIONS FOR A TIME SHOW ASCENT CLEAR
THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN. WITH AT LEAST SOME CONNECTION TO
GOMEX MOISTURE THIS SETUP COULD EASILY YIELD 2-2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TO PERHAPS AS LATE AS DAYBREAK WED. THEREAFTER
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. LIGHTER RAIN WED
MORNING THEN GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS CRANKING UP BY 18Z. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FRI WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL TROUGH HELPS PUSH REMAINS OF
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SAT. DEEP
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WILL START A STEADY CLIMB BACK TO CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. LATE
IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE NORTH WHILE ECMWF
PUSHES IT SOUTH. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FAVORED BY
WPC...FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS IFR/LIFR STRATUS
AND VSBYS PLAGUE OUR COASTAL TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE
PREVAILED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AT THE COASTAL SITES...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY SEA FOG AT KCRE/KMYR. ALTHOUGH OBS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING...EXPECT MORE PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PATCHY -RA CONTINUE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...KFLO/KLBT WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IFR STRATUS COULD EXPAND
INLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW/MODERATE THAT CIGS
WILL STAY BELOW 1KFT AT KFLO/KLBT EARLY TUE.

PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE INTO TUE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES POORLY DEFINED AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA...SO A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VRBL WINDS IS POSSIBLE WHILE WINDS
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE -RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR INLAND...
WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NC-TN BORDER REGION. THE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
INLAND FROM THE COAST EVEN AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING UNSEASONABLY HUMID AIR
NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. AS THIS SUBTROPICAL AIR
CROSSES THE CHILLY NEARSHORE OCEAN PATCHY SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED...
MAINLY ALONG THE SC COAST ALTHOUGH PATCHY SEA FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST AND POINTS NORTH AS WELL.

THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN INLAND TONIGHT..ALTHOUGH
TOWARD DAYBREAK RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LEADING UP TO A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TWO-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
TUE-WED.

SEAS REMAIN QUITE LARGE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WIND SPEEDS WE ARE
OBSERVING. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM THE RELATIVELY
LONG FETCH OF STRONG WINDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE CAROLINAS OVER
THE PAST THREE DAYS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE SEAS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT BUT A VERY DYNAMIC SETUP
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECAY IN CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS. STRONG
SYSTEM SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THEN CAUSE FAIRLY RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS LOW CRANKS UP AND MOVES BY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAMP UP TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STILL DEEPENING LOW
ACCELERATES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS STILL
LIKELY WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE ENSUING COLD
SURGE AND SEAS WILL SIMILARLY BE HESITANT TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA
BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT THU INTO FRI WILL MAINTAIN
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO FRI. GRADIENT WEAKENS
MIDDAY FRI FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF REMAINS OF DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN
THE REGION. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU INTO FRI WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
         AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 250317
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1017 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. COOL
AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS THE NC/TN BORDER REGION. EAST OF THIS
FRONT A SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES FROM FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A STRIPE OF DIFLUENCE
EXISTS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO EAST-CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...THE RESULT OF ACCELERATING FLOW INTO THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK FROM ARKANSAS INTO NEW YORK STATE.
THIS DIVERGENCE HAS SUPPORTED A NARROW BUT PERSISTENT REGION OF
RAINFALL (AND EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION) ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE
REGION INTO LUMBERTON. LATEST HIGH-RES HRRR RUNS SHOW WE SHOULD
ENTER A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS...BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CENTERED
ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE (~750 MB OR 8000 FEET AGL) SHOULD
LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE 18Z GFS HAD A FAIRLY FAST EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS DEPICTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BY 12Z TUE...THE BULK OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS A
MUCH SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SW WINDS
CONTINUING. GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONT I AM INCLINED TO
BELIEVE THE SLOWER GUIDANCE...AND HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST WINDS &
TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST AND DECELERATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DEEP MOISTURE BOTH LAG BEHIND AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO DESPITE
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THEN COME
TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER SRN TX SWINGS
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND GIVES IT A WEAK NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. STRONG SSWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS IN ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WHILE WEAK ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
TURNS FLOW INTO THE LOW WEST OF IT...I.E. OVER LANDMASS. THIS
RESULTS IN AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT...850MB TEMPS NEAR 15C
JUST OFF COAST AND DOWN TO 2 C OVER WRN ZONES BY 12Z WED. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST I`VE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING VALUES OF 100-200 UNITS. IT IS
ALSO TOUGH TO RULE OUT A NARROW ZONE OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE IMMEDIATE (MAINLY NC) COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS LOW LEVEL
FORCING MAY EVEN COUPLE WITH DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER
JET CONFIGURATION AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 190KT UPPER JET MOVES
INTO PA. IN FACT GFS CROSS SECTIONS FOR A TIME SHOW ASCENT CLEAR
THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN. WITH AT LEAST SOME CONNECTION TO
GOMEX MOISTURE THIS SETUP COULD EASILY YIELD 2-2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TO PERHAPS AS LATE AS DAYBREAK WED. THEREAFTER
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. LIGHTER RAIN WED
MORNING THEN GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS CRANKING UP BY 18Z. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FRI WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL TROUGH HELPS PUSH REMAINS OF
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SAT. DEEP
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WILL START A STEADY CLIMB BACK TO CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. LATE
IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE NORTH WHILE ECMWF
PUSHES IT SOUTH. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FAVORED BY
WPC...FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS IFR/LIFR STRATUS
AND VSBYS PLAGUE OUR COASTAL TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE
PREVAILED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AT THE COASTAL SITES...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY SEA FOG AT KCRE/KMYR. ALTHOUGH OBS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING...EXPECT MORE PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PATCHY -RA CONTINUE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...KFLO/KLBT WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IFR STRATUS COULD EXPAND
INLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW/MODERATE THAT CIGS
WILL STAY BELOW 1KFT AT KFLO/KLBT EARLY TUE.

PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE INTO TUE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES POORLY DEFINED AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA...SO A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VRBL WINDS IS POSSIBLE WHILE WINDS
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE -RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR INLAND...
WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NC-TN BORDER REGION. THE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
INLAND FROM THE COAST EVEN AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING UNSEASONABLY HUMID AIR
NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. AS THIS SUBTROPICAL AIR
CROSSES THE CHILLY NEARSHORE OCEAN PATCHY SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED...
MAINLY ALONG THE SC COAST ALTHOUGH PATCHY SEA FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST AND POINTS NORTH AS WELL.

THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN INLAND TONIGHT..ALTHOUGH
TOWARD DAYBREAK RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LEADING UP TO A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TWO-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
TUE-WED.

SEAS REMAIN QUITE LARGE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WIND SPEEDS WE ARE
OBSERVING. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM THE RELATIVELY
LONG FETCH OF STRONG WINDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE CAROLINAS OVER
THE PAST THREE DAYS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE SEAS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT BUT A VERY DYNAMIC SETUP
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECAY IN CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS. STRONG
SYSTEM SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THEN CAUSE FAIRLY RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS LOW CRANKS UP AND MOVES BY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAMP UP TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STILL DEEPENING LOW
ACCELERATES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS STILL
LIKELY WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE ENSUING COLD
SURGE AND SEAS WILL SIMILARLY BE HESITANT TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA
BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT THU INTO FRI WILL MAINTAIN
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO FRI. GRADIENT WEAKENS
MIDDAY FRI FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF REMAINS OF DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN
THE REGION. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU INTO FRI WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
         AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 242341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. COOL
AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...UPDATES IN THE NEAR-TERM CENTER ON A SIZABLE
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING
DROPPING A GENERAL QUARTER-INCH OF RAIN WITH HIGHER TOTALS ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
APPEARS ALMOST ZERO AS INSTABILITY IS VERY ELEVATED WITH NO SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 100
PERCENT ALONG THE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH LESSER CHANGES ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS.

ALSO I HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST MAINLY SOUTH OF SUNSET
BEACH AS SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND IS
ADVECTING ONSHORE IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS WIND DIRECTIONS
VEER MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH REGARDS TO OTHER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 70S MOST PLACES
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED
OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO
CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST AND DECELERATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DEEP MOISTURE BOTH LAG BEHIND AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO DESPITE
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THEN COME
TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER SRN TX SWINGS
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND GIVES IT A WEAK NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. STRONG SSWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS IN ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WHILE WEAK ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
TURNS FLOW INTO THE LOW WEST OF IT...I.E. OVER LANDMASS. THIS
RESULTS IN AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT...850MB TEMPS NEAR 15C
JUST OFF COAST AND DOWN TO 2 C OVER WRN ZONES BY 12Z WED. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST I`VE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING VALUES OF 100-200 UNITS. IT IS
ALSO TOUGH TO RULE OUT A NARROW ZONE OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE IMMEDIATE (MAINLY NC) COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS LOW LEVEL
FORCING MAY EVEN COUPLE WITH DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER
JET CONFIGURATION AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 190KT UPPER JET MOVES
INTO PA. IN FACT GFS CROSS SECTIONS FOR A TIME SHOW ASCENT CLEAR
THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN. WITH AT LEAST SOME CONNECTION TO
GOMEX MOISTURE THIS SETUP COULD EASILY YIELD 2-2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TO PERHAPS AS LATE AS DAYBREAK WED. THEREAFTER
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. LIGHTER RAIN WED
MORNING THEN GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS CRANKING UP BY 18Z. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FRI WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL TROUGH HELPS PUSH REMAINS OF
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SAT. DEEP
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WILL START A STEADY CLIMB BACK TO CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. LATE
IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE NORTH WHILE ECMWF
PUSHES IT SOUTH. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FAVORED BY
WPC...FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS IFR/LIFR STRATUS
AND VSBYS PLAGUE OUR COASTAL TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE
PREVAILED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AT THE COASTAL SITES...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY SEA FOG AT KCRE/KMYR. ALTHOUGH OBS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING...EXPECT MORE PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PATCHY -RA CONTINUE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...KFLO/KLBT WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IFR STRATUS COULD EXPAND
INLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW/MODERATE THAT CIGS
WILL STAY BELOW 1KFT AT KFLO/KLBT EARLY TUE.

PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE INTO TUE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES POORLY DEFINED AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA...SO A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VRBL WINDS IS POSSIBLE WHILE WINDS
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE -RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR INLAND...
WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE NEAR-TERM WAS TO ADD
PATCHY FOG NEARSHORE. BOTH MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORTS HAVE HAD PERIODS OF
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AS WAVES OF SEA FOG
HAVE ROLLED ONSHORE. THIS SEA FOG IS LIKELY AFFECTING THE WATERS
SOUTH OF SUNSET BEACH ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THE WORST
AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST HERE...AND THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND HAS A RELATIVELY LONG FETCH LENGTH ACROSS THE
COLDER WATER. ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST AND NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR FOG IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...JUST LESS LIKELY...DUE TO SHORTER FETCH
LENGTH AND WATER TEMPERATURES A GOOD 3-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN ALONG
THE SC COAST. OTHERWISE WIND/SEA FORECASTS LOOK GOOD AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT
WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUES
MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT
RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO
LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT BUT A VERY DYNAMIC SETUP
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECAY IN CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS. STRONG
SYSTEM SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THEN CAUSE FAIRLY RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS LOW CRANKS UP AND MOVES BY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAMP UP TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STILL DEEPENING LOW
ACCELERATES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS STILL
LIKELY WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE ENSUING COLD
SURGE AND SEAS WILL SIMILARLY BE HESITANT TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA
BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT THU INTO FRI WILL MAINTAIN
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO FRI. GRADIENT WEAKENS
MIDDAY FRI FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF REMAINS OF DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN
THE REGION. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU INTO FRI WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 242341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. COOL
AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...UPDATES IN THE NEAR-TERM CENTER ON A SIZABLE
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING
DROPPING A GENERAL QUARTER-INCH OF RAIN WITH HIGHER TOTALS ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
APPEARS ALMOST ZERO AS INSTABILITY IS VERY ELEVATED WITH NO SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 100
PERCENT ALONG THE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH LESSER CHANGES ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS.

ALSO I HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST MAINLY SOUTH OF SUNSET
BEACH AS SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND IS
ADVECTING ONSHORE IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS WIND DIRECTIONS
VEER MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH REGARDS TO OTHER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 70S MOST PLACES
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED
OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO
CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST AND DECELERATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DEEP MOISTURE BOTH LAG BEHIND AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO DESPITE
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THEN COME
TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER SRN TX SWINGS
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND GIVES IT A WEAK NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. STRONG SSWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS IN ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WHILE WEAK ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
TURNS FLOW INTO THE LOW WEST OF IT...I.E. OVER LANDMASS. THIS
RESULTS IN AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT...850MB TEMPS NEAR 15C
JUST OFF COAST AND DOWN TO 2 C OVER WRN ZONES BY 12Z WED. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST I`VE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING VALUES OF 100-200 UNITS. IT IS
ALSO TOUGH TO RULE OUT A NARROW ZONE OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE IMMEDIATE (MAINLY NC) COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS LOW LEVEL
FORCING MAY EVEN COUPLE WITH DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER
JET CONFIGURATION AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 190KT UPPER JET MOVES
INTO PA. IN FACT GFS CROSS SECTIONS FOR A TIME SHOW ASCENT CLEAR
THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN. WITH AT LEAST SOME CONNECTION TO
GOMEX MOISTURE THIS SETUP COULD EASILY YIELD 2-2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TO PERHAPS AS LATE AS DAYBREAK WED. THEREAFTER
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. LIGHTER RAIN WED
MORNING THEN GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS CRANKING UP BY 18Z. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FRI WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL TROUGH HELPS PUSH REMAINS OF
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SAT. DEEP
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WILL START A STEADY CLIMB BACK TO CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. LATE
IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE NORTH WHILE ECMWF
PUSHES IT SOUTH. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FAVORED BY
WPC...FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS IFR/LIFR STRATUS
AND VSBYS PLAGUE OUR COASTAL TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE
PREVAILED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AT THE COASTAL SITES...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY SEA FOG AT KCRE/KMYR. ALTHOUGH OBS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING...EXPECT MORE PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PATCHY -RA CONTINUE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...KFLO/KLBT WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IFR STRATUS COULD EXPAND
INLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW/MODERATE THAT CIGS
WILL STAY BELOW 1KFT AT KFLO/KLBT EARLY TUE.

PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE INTO TUE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES POORLY DEFINED AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA...SO A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VRBL WINDS IS POSSIBLE WHILE WINDS
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE -RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR INLAND...
WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE NEAR-TERM WAS TO ADD
PATCHY FOG NEARSHORE. BOTH MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORTS HAVE HAD PERIODS OF
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AS WAVES OF SEA FOG
HAVE ROLLED ONSHORE. THIS SEA FOG IS LIKELY AFFECTING THE WATERS
SOUTH OF SUNSET BEACH ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THE WORST
AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST HERE...AND THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND HAS A RELATIVELY LONG FETCH LENGTH ACROSS THE
COLDER WATER. ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST AND NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR FOG IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...JUST LESS LIKELY...DUE TO SHORTER FETCH
LENGTH AND WATER TEMPERATURES A GOOD 3-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN ALONG
THE SC COAST. OTHERWISE WIND/SEA FORECASTS LOOK GOOD AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT
WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUES
MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT
RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO
LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT BUT A VERY DYNAMIC SETUP
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECAY IN CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS. STRONG
SYSTEM SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THEN CAUSE FAIRLY RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS LOW CRANKS UP AND MOVES BY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAMP UP TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STILL DEEPENING LOW
ACCELERATES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS STILL
LIKELY WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE ENSUING COLD
SURGE AND SEAS WILL SIMILARLY BE HESITANT TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA
BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT THU INTO FRI WILL MAINTAIN
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO FRI. GRADIENT WEAKENS
MIDDAY FRI FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF REMAINS OF DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN
THE REGION. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU INTO FRI WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 242022
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID
70S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST AND DECELERATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DEEP MOISTURE BOTH LAG BEHIND AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO DESPITE
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THEN COME
TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER SRN TX SWINGS
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND GIVES IT A WEAK NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. STRONG SSWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS IN ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WHILE WEAK ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
TURNS FLOW INTO THE LOW WEST OF IT...I.E. OVER LANDMASS. THIS
RESULTS IN AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT...850MB TEMPS NEAR 15C
JUST OFF COAST AND DOWN TO 2 C OVER WRN ZONES BY 12Z WED. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST I`VE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING VALUES OF 100-200 UNITS. IT IS
ALSO TOUGH TO RULE OUT A NARROW ZONE OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE IMMEDIATE (MAINLY NC) COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS LOW LEVEL
FORCING MAY EVEN COUPLE WITH DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER
JET CONFIGURATION AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 190KT UPPER JET MOVES
INTO PA. IN FACT GFS CROSS SECTIONS FOR A TIME SHOW ASCENT CLEAR
THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN. WITH AT LEAST SOME CONNECTION TO
GOMEX MOISTURE THIS SETUP COULD EASILY YIELD 2-2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TO PERHAPS AS LATE AS DAYBREAK WED. THEREAFTER
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. LIGHTER RAIN WED
MORNING THEN GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS CRANKING UP BY 18Z. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FRI WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL TROUGH HELPS PUSH REMAINS OF
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SAT. DEEP
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WILL START A STEADY CLIMB BACK TO CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. LATE
IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE NORTH WHILE ECMWF
PUSHES IT SOUTH. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FAVORED BY
WPC...FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS INLAND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...DISSIPATING A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WILL
SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST REACHING LBT AND FLO JUST AROUND 12Z
AND THE COASTAL SITES BY LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO
SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT
BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT BUT A VERY DYNAMIC SETUP
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECAY IN CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS. STRONG
SYSTEM SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THEN CAUSE FAIRLY RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS LOW CRANKS UP AND MOVES BY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAMP UP TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STILL DEEPENING LOW
ACCELERATES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS STILL
LIKELY WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE ENSUING COLD
SURGE AND SEAS WILL SIMILARLY BE HESITANT TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA
BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT THU INTO FRI WILL MAINTAIN
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO FRI. GRADIENT WEAKENS
MIDDAY FRI FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF REMAINS OF DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN
THE REGION. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU INTO FRI WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL












000
FXUS62 KILM 242022
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID
70S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST AND DECELERATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DEEP MOISTURE BOTH LAG BEHIND AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO DESPITE
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THEN COME
TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER SRN TX SWINGS
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND GIVES IT A WEAK NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. STRONG SSWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS IN ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WHILE WEAK ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
TURNS FLOW INTO THE LOW WEST OF IT...I.E. OVER LANDMASS. THIS
RESULTS IN AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT...850MB TEMPS NEAR 15C
JUST OFF COAST AND DOWN TO 2 C OVER WRN ZONES BY 12Z WED. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST I`VE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING VALUES OF 100-200 UNITS. IT IS
ALSO TOUGH TO RULE OUT A NARROW ZONE OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE IMMEDIATE (MAINLY NC) COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS LOW LEVEL
FORCING MAY EVEN COUPLE WITH DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER
JET CONFIGURATION AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 190KT UPPER JET MOVES
INTO PA. IN FACT GFS CROSS SECTIONS FOR A TIME SHOW ASCENT CLEAR
THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN. WITH AT LEAST SOME CONNECTION TO
GOMEX MOISTURE THIS SETUP COULD EASILY YIELD 2-2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TO PERHAPS AS LATE AS DAYBREAK WED. THEREAFTER
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. LIGHTER RAIN WED
MORNING THEN GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS CRANKING UP BY 18Z. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FRI WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL TROUGH HELPS PUSH REMAINS OF
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SAT. DEEP
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WILL START A STEADY CLIMB BACK TO CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. LATE
IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE NORTH WHILE ECMWF
PUSHES IT SOUTH. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FAVORED BY
WPC...FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS INLAND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...DISSIPATING A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WILL
SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST REACHING LBT AND FLO JUST AROUND 12Z
AND THE COASTAL SITES BY LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO
SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT
BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT BUT A VERY DYNAMIC SETUP
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECAY IN CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS. STRONG
SYSTEM SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THEN CAUSE FAIRLY RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS LOW CRANKS UP AND MOVES BY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAMP UP TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STILL DEEPENING LOW
ACCELERATES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS STILL
LIKELY WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE ENSUING COLD
SURGE AND SEAS WILL SIMILARLY BE HESITANT TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA
BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT THU INTO FRI WILL MAINTAIN
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO FRI. GRADIENT WEAKENS
MIDDAY FRI FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF REMAINS OF DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN
THE REGION. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU INTO FRI WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL













000
FXUS62 KILM 241951
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
251 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID
70S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS INLAND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...DISSIPATING A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WILL
SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST REACHING LBT AND FLO JUST AROUND 12Z
AND THE COASTAL SITES BY LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO
SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT
BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 241951
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
251 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID
70S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS INLAND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...DISSIPATING A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WILL
SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST REACHING LBT AND FLO JUST AROUND 12Z
AND THE COASTAL SITES BY LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO
SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT
BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL










000
FXUS62 KILM 241646
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPS WERE CLIMBING CLOSE TO 70 THIS
MORNING UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. DEWPOINT TEMPS WERE WELL INTO THE 60S
TRAILING CLOSE BEHIND THE TEMPS. BEST CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE SHOWERS WERE MORE
SCATTERED FROM NW WILLIAMSBURG THROUGH FLORENCE INTO MARION HORRY AND
COLUMBUS COUNTIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHWRS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 70S IN DEEP MOIST SW FLOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING AS GOOD. LLJ UP TO 45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVERALL. SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ZIP OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION
UP TO 40S KTS. WILL KEEP IN ISOLATED THUNDER AS WE CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE A LITTLE FURTHER WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND SOME
SPOTS MAY SEE ENHANCED HEATING WITH SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS
TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WELL WEST OF
LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT ALIGNED FROM SW
TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES WITH CAA TO FOLLOW AFTER THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST
PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CREATING A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY...DISSIPATING A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
AS IT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING THE COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. MODERATE
S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING AS FRONT APPROACHES BY
DAYBREAK WITH 15 TO 20 KTS DROPPING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL










000
FXUS62 KILM 241646
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPS WERE CLIMBING CLOSE TO 70 THIS
MORNING UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. DEWPOINT TEMPS WERE WELL INTO THE 60S
TRAILING CLOSE BEHIND THE TEMPS. BEST CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE SHOWERS WERE MORE
SCATTERED FROM NW WILLIAMSBURG THROUGH FLORENCE INTO MARION HORRY AND
COLUMBUS COUNTIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHWRS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 70S IN DEEP MOIST SW FLOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING AS GOOD. LLJ UP TO 45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVERALL. SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ZIP OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION
UP TO 40S KTS. WILL KEEP IN ISOLATED THUNDER AS WE CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE A LITTLE FURTHER WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND SOME
SPOTS MAY SEE ENHANCED HEATING WITH SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS
TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WELL WEST OF
LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT ALIGNED FROM SW
TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES WITH CAA TO FOLLOW AFTER THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST
PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CREATING A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY...DISSIPATING A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
AS IT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING THE COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. MODERATE
S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING AS FRONT APPROACHES BY
DAYBREAK WITH 15 TO 20 KTS DROPPING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL











000
FXUS62 KILM 241115
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BACK EDGE OF DRY SLOT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO THE NORTH.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT IS ABOUT ALL WE CAN EXPECT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...VERY MOIST LOW LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 60S AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. RESULTING CONVECTION WILL KICK OFF
AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE 700MB AND FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEAK. IN ADDITION...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY LEAD TO STRONG CONVECTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONSIDERING THE WARM
START TO THE DAY...HAVE GONE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EITHER STILL MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OR MOVING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. IN ANY CASE...AT THIS STAGE COLD ADVECTION
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. SO...WILL KEEP THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAMPED UP
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS WEAK FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CREATING A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY...DISSIPATING A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A
MODERATE SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8
FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RAN





000
FXUS62 KILM 241115
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BACK EDGE OF DRY SLOT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO THE NORTH.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT IS ABOUT ALL WE CAN EXPECT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...VERY MOIST LOW LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 60S AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. RESULTING CONVECTION WILL KICK OFF
AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE 700MB AND FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEAK. IN ADDITION...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY LEAD TO STRONG CONVECTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONSIDERING THE WARM
START TO THE DAY...HAVE GONE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EITHER STILL MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OR MOVING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. IN ANY CASE...AT THIS STAGE COLD ADVECTION
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. SO...WILL KEEP THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAMPED UP
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS WEAK FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CREATING A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY...DISSIPATING A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A
MODERATE SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8
FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RAN






000
FXUS62 KILM 241059
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
600 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BACK EDGE OF
DRY SLOT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
WELL TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IS ABOUT ALL WE CAN EXPECT UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...VERY MOIST LOW LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 60S AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. RESULTING CONVECTION WILL KICK OFF
AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE 700MB AND FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEAK. IN ADDITION...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY LEAD TO STRONG CONVECTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONSIDERING THE WARM
START TO THE DAY...HAVE GONE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EITHER STILL MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OR MOVING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. IN ANY CASE...AT THIS STAGE COLD ADVECTION
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. SO...WILL KEEP THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAMPED UP
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS WEAK FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CREATING A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY...DISSIPATING A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM AS A MODERATE SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KILM 241059
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
600 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BACK EDGE OF
DRY SLOT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
WELL TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IS ABOUT ALL WE CAN EXPECT UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...VERY MOIST LOW LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 60S AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. RESULTING CONVECTION WILL KICK OFF
AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE 700MB AND FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEAK. IN ADDITION...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY LEAD TO STRONG CONVECTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONSIDERING THE WARM
START TO THE DAY...HAVE GONE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EITHER STILL MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OR MOVING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. IN ANY CASE...AT THIS STAGE COLD ADVECTION
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. SO...WILL KEEP THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAMPED UP
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS WEAK FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CREATING A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY...DISSIPATING A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM AS A MODERATE SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...43












000
FXUS62 KILM 240903
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
402 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BACK EDGE OF
DRY SLOT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
WELL TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IS ABOUT ALL WE CAN EXPECT UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...VERY MOIST LOW LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 60S AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. RESULTING CONVECTION WILL KICK OFF
AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE 700MB AND FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEAK. IN ADDITION...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY LEAD TO STRONG CONVECTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONSIDERING THE WARM
START TO THE DAY...HAVE GONE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EITHER STILL MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OR MOVING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. IN ANY CASE...AT THIS STAGE COLD ADVECTION
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. SO...WILL KEEP THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAMPED UP
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS WEAK FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS LOW CIGS AND FOG AFFECT THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...TAPERING OF WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG PERSISTS CREATING
MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT MVFR/IFR.
ISOLATED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY..

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM AS A MODERATE SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...REK/SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 240903
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
402 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BACK EDGE OF
DRY SLOT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
WELL TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IS ABOUT ALL WE CAN EXPECT UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...VERY MOIST LOW LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 60S AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. RESULTING CONVECTION WILL KICK OFF
AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE 700MB AND FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEAK. IN ADDITION...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY LEAD TO STRONG CONVECTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONSIDERING THE WARM
START TO THE DAY...HAVE GONE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EITHER STILL MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OR MOVING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. IN ANY CASE...AT THIS STAGE COLD ADVECTION
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. SO...WILL KEEP THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAMPED UP
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS WEAK FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS LOW CIGS AND FOG AFFECT THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...TAPERING OF WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG PERSISTS CREATING
MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT MVFR/IFR.
ISOLATED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY..

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM AS A MODERATE SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...REK/SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 240555
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1255 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR A
LULL IN THE ACTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE CROSSING THE AREA CURRENTLY AND SHOULD
DROP A GENERAL 0.4 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. AT THE SURFACE THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE THROUGH
FLORENCE AND IS APPROACHING MYRTLE BEACH. LATEST HIGH- RES
MODELING INDICATES THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OR JUMP NORTHWARD VERY
QUICKLY WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. IN ORDER FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED
ANALYSIS OF THE 03Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23Z RUC INDICATES WE NEED A
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 69 DEGREES F...EQUIVALENT TO A SURFACE
THETA-E VALUE OF 333K. ANYTHING LESS THAN THIS SHIFTS THE CONVECTIVE
ORIGIN POINT UPWARD OFF THE SURFACE WITH A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION
IN SEVERE WEATHER RISK. 02/03Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE WE DO NOT HAVE
REQUISITE THETA-E VALUES IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE ALL OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
LIKELY REMAINS ELEVATED. THE DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD SPELL AN END TO THE SOLID PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY
WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS LOW CIGS AND FOG AFFECT THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...TAPERING OF WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG PERSISTS CREATING
MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT MVFR/IFR.
ISOLATED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY..

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALTHOUGH ALL
STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE WATERS. FORECAST UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 10 PM FOLLOWS:

THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY
AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED IN GEORGETOWN BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN
MYRTLE BEACH AND POINTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS OUT AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REMAIN ABOVE GALE-FORCE...AND WINDS AT THE
BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE APPROACHING GALE FORCE WITH 33 KNOTS
RECENTLY REPORTED ON TOPSAIL ISLAND (MESONET) AND 30 KNOTS AT MERCER
PIER ON WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. SEAS ARE ALMOST FULLY DEVELOPED FOR THIS
FETCH AND SPEED...13 FEET OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...10 FEET AT THE
HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND...AND 9 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS
LATE-EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND IS RACING UP THE COAST
AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE TOO FAST WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
(21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR FRONT TO
CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11 PM...AND TO BE
NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE HERALDED BY A
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/TRA/III/MBB





000
FXUS62 KILM 240555
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1255 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR A
LULL IN THE ACTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE CROSSING THE AREA CURRENTLY AND SHOULD
DROP A GENERAL 0.4 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. AT THE SURFACE THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE THROUGH
FLORENCE AND IS APPROACHING MYRTLE BEACH. LATEST HIGH- RES
MODELING INDICATES THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OR JUMP NORTHWARD VERY
QUICKLY WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. IN ORDER FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED
ANALYSIS OF THE 03Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23Z RUC INDICATES WE NEED A
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 69 DEGREES F...EQUIVALENT TO A SURFACE
THETA-E VALUE OF 333K. ANYTHING LESS THAN THIS SHIFTS THE CONVECTIVE
ORIGIN POINT UPWARD OFF THE SURFACE WITH A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION
IN SEVERE WEATHER RISK. 02/03Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE WE DO NOT HAVE
REQUISITE THETA-E VALUES IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE ALL OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
LIKELY REMAINS ELEVATED. THE DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD SPELL AN END TO THE SOLID PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY
WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS LOW CIGS AND FOG AFFECT THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...TAPERING OF WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG PERSISTS CREATING
MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT MVFR/IFR.
ISOLATED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY..

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALTHOUGH ALL
STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE WATERS. FORECAST UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 10 PM FOLLOWS:

THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY
AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED IN GEORGETOWN BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN
MYRTLE BEACH AND POINTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS OUT AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REMAIN ABOVE GALE-FORCE...AND WINDS AT THE
BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE APPROACHING GALE FORCE WITH 33 KNOTS
RECENTLY REPORTED ON TOPSAIL ISLAND (MESONET) AND 30 KNOTS AT MERCER
PIER ON WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. SEAS ARE ALMOST FULLY DEVELOPED FOR THIS
FETCH AND SPEED...13 FEET OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...10 FEET AT THE
HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND...AND 9 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS
LATE-EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND IS RACING UP THE COAST
AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE TOO FAST WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
(21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR FRONT TO
CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11 PM...AND TO BE
NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE HERALDED BY A
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/TRA/III/MBB






000
FXUS62 KILM 240458 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1158 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE CROSSING THE AREA
CURRENTLY AND SHOULD DROP A GENERAL 0.4 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AT THE SURFACE THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
BE THROUGH FLORENCE AND IS APPROACHING MYRTLE BEACH. LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELING INDICATES THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OR JUMP NORTHWARD VERY
QUICKLY WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. IN ORDER FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED
ANALYSIS OF THE 03Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23Z RUC INDICATES WE NEED A
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 69 DEGREES F...EQUIVALENT TO A SURFACE
THETA-E VALUE OF 333K. ANYTHING LESS THAN THIS SHIFTS THE CONVECTIVE
ORIGIN POINT UPWARD OFF THE SURFACE WITH A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION
IN SEVERE WEATHER RISK. 02/03Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE WE DO NOT HAVE
REQUISITE THETA-E VALUES IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE ALL OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
LIKELY REMAINS ELEVATED. THE DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD SPELL AN END TO THE SOLID PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY
WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR EXPECT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UNSETTLED WEATHER ALLOWS FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND FOG...TO AFFECT THE AREA. RAIN TAPERS OFF INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WHILE OBS ARE REPORTING LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CREATING
MVFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH ANY STRONGER
STORM COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA. LATE OVERNIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF...BUT WILL
CONTINUING TO SEE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG
PERSISTS. WHILE LIFR CANNOT BE RULE OUT...OVERALL ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR. INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH
AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SPOTS...BUT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1158 PM SUNDAY...GALE WARNING IS EXPIRING AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE
NC WATERS...REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ANY RESIDUAL STRONG
WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION AND WILL BE HANDLED BY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS RATHER THAN SYNOPTIC GALE PRODUCTS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY
AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED IN GEORGETOWN BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN
MYRTLE BEACH AND POINTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS OUT AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REMAIN ABOVE GALE-FORCE...AND WINDS AT THE
BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE APPROACHING GALE FORCE WITH 33 KNOTS
RECENTLY REPORTED ON TOPSAIL ISLAND (MESONET) AND 30 KNOTS AT MERCER
PIER ON WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. SEAS ARE ALMOST FULLY DEVELOPED FOR THIS
FETCH AND SPEED...13 FEET OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...10 FEET AT THE
HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND...AND 9 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS
LATE-EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND IS RACING UP THE COAST
AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE TOO FAST WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
(21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR FRONT TO
CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11 PM...AND TO BE
NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE HERALDED BY A
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.



&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 240458 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1158 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE CROSSING THE AREA
CURRENTLY AND SHOULD DROP A GENERAL 0.4 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AT THE SURFACE THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
BE THROUGH FLORENCE AND IS APPROACHING MYRTLE BEACH. LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELING INDICATES THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OR JUMP NORTHWARD VERY
QUICKLY WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. IN ORDER FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED
ANALYSIS OF THE 03Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23Z RUC INDICATES WE NEED A
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 69 DEGREES F...EQUIVALENT TO A SURFACE
THETA-E VALUE OF 333K. ANYTHING LESS THAN THIS SHIFTS THE CONVECTIVE
ORIGIN POINT UPWARD OFF THE SURFACE WITH A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION
IN SEVERE WEATHER RISK. 02/03Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE WE DO NOT HAVE
REQUISITE THETA-E VALUES IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE ALL OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
LIKELY REMAINS ELEVATED. THE DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD SPELL AN END TO THE SOLID PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY
WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR EXPECT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UNSETTLED WEATHER ALLOWS FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND FOG...TO AFFECT THE AREA. RAIN TAPERS OFF INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WHILE OBS ARE REPORTING LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CREATING
MVFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH ANY STRONGER
STORM COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA. LATE OVERNIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF...BUT WILL
CONTINUING TO SEE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG
PERSISTS. WHILE LIFR CANNOT BE RULE OUT...OVERALL ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR. INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH
AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SPOTS...BUT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1158 PM SUNDAY...GALE WARNING IS EXPIRING AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE
NC WATERS...REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ANY RESIDUAL STRONG
WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION AND WILL BE HANDLED BY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS RATHER THAN SYNOPTIC GALE PRODUCTS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY
AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED IN GEORGETOWN BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN
MYRTLE BEACH AND POINTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS OUT AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REMAIN ABOVE GALE-FORCE...AND WINDS AT THE
BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE APPROACHING GALE FORCE WITH 33 KNOTS
RECENTLY REPORTED ON TOPSAIL ISLAND (MESONET) AND 30 KNOTS AT MERCER
PIER ON WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. SEAS ARE ALMOST FULLY DEVELOPED FOR THIS
FETCH AND SPEED...13 FEET OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...10 FEET AT THE
HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND...AND 9 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS
LATE-EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND IS RACING UP THE COAST
AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE TOO FAST WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
(21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR FRONT TO
CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11 PM...AND TO BE
NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE HERALDED BY A
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.



&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 240308
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1008 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE CROSSING THE AREA
CURRENTLY AND SHOULD DROP A GENERAL 0.4 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AT THE SURFACE THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
BE THROUGH FLORENCE AND IS APPROACHING MYRTLE BEACH. LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELING INDICATES THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OR JUMP NORTHWARD VERY
QUICKLY WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. IN ORDER FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED
ANALYSIS OF THE 03Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23Z RUC INDICATES WE NEED A
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 69 DEGREES F...EQUIVALENT TO A SURFACE
THETA-E VALUE OF 333K. ANYTHING LESS THAN THIS SHIFTS THE CONVECTIVE
ORIGIN POINT UPWARD OFF THE SURFACE WITH A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION
IN SEVERE WEATHER RISK. 02/03Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE WE DO NOT HAVE
REQUISITE THETA-E VALUES IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE ALL OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
LIKELY REMAINS ELEVATED. THE DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD SPELL AN END TO THE SOLID PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY
WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR EXPECT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UNSETTLED WEATHER ALLOWS FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND FOG...TO AFFECT THE AREA. RAIN TAPERS OFF INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WHILE OBS ARE REPORTING LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CREATING
MVFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH ANY STRONGER
STORM COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA. LATE OVERNIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF...BUT WILL
CONTINUING TO SEE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG
PERSISTS. WHILE LIFR CANNOT BE RULE OUT...OVERALL ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR. INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH
AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SPOTS...BUT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE
MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED IN GEORGETOWN BUT
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN MYRTLE BEACH AND POINTS NORTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST. GUSTS OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REMAIN ABOVE
GALE-FORCE...AND WINDS AT THE BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE
APPROACHING GALE FORCE WITH 33 KNOTS RECENTLY REPORTED ON TOPSAIL
ISLAND (MESONET) AND 30 KNOTS AT MERCER PIER ON WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH.
SEAS ARE ALMOST FULLY DEVELOPED FOR THIS FETCH AND SPEED...13 FEET
OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...10 FEET AT THE HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF BALD
HEAD ISLAND...AND 9 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS LATE-EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND IS RACING UP THE COAST
AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE TOO FAST WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
(21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR FRONT TO
CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11 PM...AND TO BE
NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE HERALDED BY A
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 240308
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1008 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE CROSSING THE AREA
CURRENTLY AND SHOULD DROP A GENERAL 0.4 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AT THE SURFACE THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
BE THROUGH FLORENCE AND IS APPROACHING MYRTLE BEACH. LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELING INDICATES THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OR JUMP NORTHWARD VERY
QUICKLY WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. IN ORDER FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED
ANALYSIS OF THE 03Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23Z RUC INDICATES WE NEED A
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 69 DEGREES F...EQUIVALENT TO A SURFACE
THETA-E VALUE OF 333K. ANYTHING LESS THAN THIS SHIFTS THE CONVECTIVE
ORIGIN POINT UPWARD OFF THE SURFACE WITH A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION
IN SEVERE WEATHER RISK. 02/03Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE WE DO NOT HAVE
REQUISITE THETA-E VALUES IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE ALL OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
LIKELY REMAINS ELEVATED. THE DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD SPELL AN END TO THE SOLID PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY
WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR EXPECT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UNSETTLED WEATHER ALLOWS FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND FOG...TO AFFECT THE AREA. RAIN TAPERS OFF INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WHILE OBS ARE REPORTING LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CREATING
MVFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH ANY STRONGER
STORM COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA. LATE OVERNIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF...BUT WILL
CONTINUING TO SEE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG
PERSISTS. WHILE LIFR CANNOT BE RULE OUT...OVERALL ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR. INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH
AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SPOTS...BUT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE
MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED IN GEORGETOWN BUT
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN MYRTLE BEACH AND POINTS NORTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST. GUSTS OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REMAIN ABOVE
GALE-FORCE...AND WINDS AT THE BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE
APPROACHING GALE FORCE WITH 33 KNOTS RECENTLY REPORTED ON TOPSAIL
ISLAND (MESONET) AND 30 KNOTS AT MERCER PIER ON WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH.
SEAS ARE ALMOST FULLY DEVELOPED FOR THIS FETCH AND SPEED...13 FEET
OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...10 FEET AT THE HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF BALD
HEAD ISLAND...AND 9 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS LATE-EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND IS RACING UP THE COAST
AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE TOO FAST WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
(21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR FRONT TO
CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11 PM...AND TO BE
NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE HERALDED BY A
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL







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