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000
FXUS62 KILM 142038
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
338 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS IT GETS
OVERRUN WITH MOISTURE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WITH MINIMAL AMOUNTS
OF ICE POSSIBLE WELL INLAND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A SOAKING RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TRICKY FORECAST COMING UP TONIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
ARCTIC HIGH WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL RETURN FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH
ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAKENING THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL BE
WEDGING DOWN THE COAST AS ANTICIPATED COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO
DEVELOP. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH THE MARGINAL WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS IN THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TIMING WILL BE KEY TO WHAT...IF
ANY...AREAS END UP WITH FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE AIRMASS AWAY FROM
THE COAST WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. COLD AIR WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF RETREATING BUT THE WARM AIR NEVER MOVES IN AS QUICKLY
AS THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL BUT ENSURE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE LIQUID WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP WARM NOSE
THAT IS SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. ABOVE 8K FT THE AIR IS
DRY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP LIGHT...EITHER IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER...BY 09Z OR SO THE LAYERS BELOW 8K FT ARE
NEARLY SATURATED...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWEST 500 FT. IT IS WITHIN THIS
LAYER THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALONG 280K AND 285K SURFACES...WILL
BE STRONGEST AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN. IN
ADDITION TO THE STUBBORNNESS OF THE COLD AIR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
FALLING INTO VERY DRY SURFACE AIR WILL HELP REINFORCE THE LOW
LEVEL COLD POOL VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THIS ALL BOILS DOWN TO
POTENTIAL FOR A TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF ICING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF ICE INSTEAD IT WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE
AFTERNOON MAIN PACKAGE.

MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS THE
HIGH RETREATS. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE VERY LATE
TONIGHT...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
HERE WILL BE TOO WARM FOR PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AND RAIN IS
EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME OF IT MAY HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE TRAITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WHAT SEEMS TO BE A NEVER-ENDING PARADE OF
COMPLEX FORECASTS CONTINUES WITH THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL CREATE A VARIETY OF WEATHER IMPACTS...FROM A
WINTRY MIX MONDAY MORNING TO POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A LARGE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES. WILL
TRY TO SORT OUT THE DETAILS HERE:

AN EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING
THANKS TO AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS
HIGH WILL SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN A
WEAK WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS...AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WHICH WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR CYCLOGENESIS
TUESDAY...WILL DIG INTO THE MS VLY TO DRIVE STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ATOP
THE WEDGE MONDAY. THIS OF COURSE IS AN ISENTROPIC LIFT
SCENARIO...AND GUIDANCE DEPICTS INCREASING LIFT ON THE 280K AND 285K
SURFACES BEGINNING JUST BEFORE THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ONSHORE AS SURFACE FLOW
BECOMES INCREASING SE AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE DIFFERS WIDELY IN WHICH PRECIP MECHANISM WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST 2 DIFFERENT PRECIP
REGIMES MONDAY MORNING - STRATIFORM WITHIN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE NW TIER...AND MORE CONVECTIVE EMBEDDED ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT LIFTING TO THE NW. THE HEAVIER PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT...FORTUNATELY THIS REGION WILL TOO WARM FOR ANY PTYPE
CONCERNS. THE QUESTION THEN REMAINS HOW SIGNIFICANT WILL BE THE
FREEZING PRECIP TO THE NW.

INITIALLY...THE COLUMN SATURATES BENEATH 800MB BUT REMAINS DRY IN
THE MID LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS ONLY VERY LIGHT STRATIFORM PRECIP. THE
WARM NOSE INITIALLY IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...BUT BY NOON WARMS
TO TO +9C OR SO...SO NO SNOW IS POSSIBLE...AND ZR WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CHARACTERISTIC...BECOMING ALL RAIN BY NOON. OVERALL LIFT IS
WEAK SO TOTAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT IT ONLY TAKES A TRACE OF ZR TO
REQUIRE AN ADVISORY. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RAISED
THROUGH NOON FOR 5 COUNTIES IN THE FAR NW TIER...AND AFTER THAT TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AND ALL PRECIP WILL BECOME
LIQUID.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN PRECIP MONDAY AFTN/EVE BEFORE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING
THE HEAVIEST QPF...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN WHAT WILL MATERIALIZE
AS AN INCREASING WARM SECTOR. SBCAPE REMAINS PRETTY LOW DUE TO WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND TIME OF DAY (PEAKING AT 200-300 J/KG)...BUT MUCAPE
DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE QUITE A BIT HIGHER. LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AS EVIDENCED BY 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHING 50 KTS AND 0-3KM HELICITY OF 200-300 M2/S2. PWATS CLIMB
TOWARDS 1.25 INCHES...AND THIS SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH A NON-ZERO DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SPC MAINTAINS A MRGL RISK FOR
THE END OF THE SWODY2 INTO SWODY3 AS THIS BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA.
OVERALL RISK IS MINIMAL BUT WITH SUCH STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH OF A CONVECTIVE SHOWER TO PRODUCE SURFACE
WIND GUSTS. IT MAY BE A "SEVERE SHOWERS" TYPE SETUP WITH VERY
LIMITED LIGHTNING.

WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING WEEK AND POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL...PRECIP WILL
RACE TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRYING OCCURRING AND
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE A WARM AND SUNNY DAY. NO COLD ADVECTION UNTIL
LATE IN THE PERIOD..AND THE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH HIGH THICKNESSES
AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 7C SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...COOLER WELL INLAND. COLD
ADVECTION WILL FINALLY SETTLE INTO THE REGION AS A DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSES OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW SHIFTING AROUND TO N-NW WED NIGHT INTO THURS. OVERALL THERE
WILL BE CAA BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 5C WED MORNING DOWN TO
ALMOST -2C BY THURS MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS TO TAKE A DIP
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS ON WED BECOMING BELOW
NORMAL FOR THURS. WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR THURS

WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR WED AS LAST BIT OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH BUT EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THURS
AND FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT. HEIGHT RISES WILL PRODUCE A STEADY RISE IN 850 TEMPS THROUGH
LATE THURS INTO FRI. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER TO NORMAL AND
THEN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEP SW TO W FLOW
DEVELOPING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND THEREFORE CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE BACK END OF THIS
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP AS
WELL AS PRECIP TYPE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...LIGHT PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO FORM AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SO THINK PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A LOT
OF WARM AIR ADVECTING IN JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...HOWEVER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING
AT THE ONSET...SO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED...EMPHASIS ON
LIGHT. ALONG THE COAST...A PRETTY GOOD COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
WITH RAIN BEGINNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL BE
IN THE WEDGE ALL DAY...HOWEVER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AROUND MID MORNING...SO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN/SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY DECREASING
AS GRADIENT RELAXES. DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL TROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL HELP FURTHER WEAKEN THE GRADIENT WITH
WIND SPEEDS DROPPING NEAR 10 KT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE TROUGH STARTS
MOVING TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS. GRADIENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH BECOMES MORE DEFINED AND SPEEDS FOLLOW AN UPWARD
TREND...RETURNING TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL PUSH SEAS BACK INTO
THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RAISED FOR ALL WATERS
BEGINNING AT 7AM MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING SLOWLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
COMBINE WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO
PINCH THE GRADIENT AND DRIVE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY.
INITIALLY...WINDS WILL BE SE AT 10-15 KTS BUT STEADILY INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY TO 15-25 KTS AS A COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND A
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE. BEHIND THIS SECOND
FEATURE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND INCREASE EVEN
FURTHER...POTENTIALLY GUSTING TO GALE FORCE VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EASING AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY LATE
TUESDAY AFTER A SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6AM
TUESDAY FOR NOW...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL LIKELY EITHER BE EXTENDED
OR POTENTIALLY UPGRADED TO A GALE. SEAS WILL RISE SHARPLY MONDAY
FROM 3-5 FT TO AS MUCH AS 6-10 FT LATE...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING
THROUGH TUESDAY BUT REMAINING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE
NW TO N THROUGH WED INTO EARLY THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
WINDS DROPPING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS ON WED WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN
STRENGTH AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY
THURS.  SEAS DIMINISHING THROUGH WED WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
BY AFTN AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THURS
DROPPING OFF FURTHER DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH EARLY FRI. BY FRI
AFTN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE AND A S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ087-096.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 141901
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
201 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL BE SLOW
TO ERODE TOMORROW AS IT GETS OVERRUN WITH MOISTURE. A SOAKING RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...TRICKY FORECAST COMING UP TONIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
ARCTIC HIGH WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL RETURN FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH
ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAKENING THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL BE
WEDGING DOWN THE COAST AS ANTICIPATED COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO
DEVELOP. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH THE MARGINAL WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS IN THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TIMING WILL BE KEY TO WHAT...IF
ANY...AREAS END UP WITH FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE AIRMASS AWAY FROM
THE COAST WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. COLD AIR WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF RETREATING BUT THE WARM AIR NEVER MOVES IN AS QUICKLY
AS THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL BUT ENSURE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE LIQUID WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP WARM NOSE
THAT IS SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. ABOVE 8K FT THE AIR IS
DRY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP LIGHT...EITHER IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER...BY 09Z OR SO THE LAYERS BELOW 8K FT ARE
NEARLY SATURATED...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWEST 500 FT. IT IS WITHIN THIS
LAYER THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALONG 280K AND 285K SURFACES...WILL
BE STRONGEST AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN. IN
ADDITION TO THE STUBBORNNESS OF THE COLD AIR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
FALLING INTO VERY DRY SURFACE AIR WILL HELP REINFORCE THE LOW
LEVEL COLD POOL VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THIS ALL BOILS DOWN TO
POTENTIAL FOR A TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF ICING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF ICE INSTEAD IT WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE
AFTERNOON MAIN PACKAGE.

MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS THE
HIGH RETREATS. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE VERY LATE
TONIGHT...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
HERE WILL BE TOO WARM FOR PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AND RAIN IS
EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME OF IT MAY HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE TRAITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOT SO WILLING TO BE
ERODED AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN FACT THERE EXISTS UP TO A 10
DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS INLAND FOR MONDAY. A VAST
MAJORITY OF TIME WHEN THIS IS THE CASE THE COLDER GUIDANCE ENDS UP
BEING CORRECT. AS SUCH THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TOWARDS THE
COOLER NUMBERS. GIVEN THE THREAT FOR PRECIP TO MANIFEST AS
FREEZING RAIN OVER DEEP INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE CRITICAL. HAVING SAID THAT, THE WINDOW
DURING WHICH ZR IS POSSIBLE REMAINS ONE OF LOW POPS AND MINIMAL
QPF SINCE FOR THE SAME REASON THE HIGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT IT
SHOULD ALSO BE SLOW TO SATURATE. A MODEL QPF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND WRF IS THAT THE LATTER LIKES A WETTER COAST MONDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL-FORMED SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THAT
MOST OF MONDAY`S FORCING IS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY DRY ABOVE 800 (OR IN SOME CASES 900) MB THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THE WEDGE FINALLY DOES BREAK MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE MONDAY NIGHT, IN SOME PLACES DRAMATICALLY (LOW 60S BY
MORNING?). THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT ALSO REPRESENTS WHEN THE
APPROACHING SYSTEMS MID LEVEL ASCENT FORCEFULLY KICKS IN. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD NOT PINPOINT HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL SINCE
HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA STRONGEST INLAND BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS ESP SC
MAY SEE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP, WHICH WILL THEN MOVE INTO CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY MORNING. THE ENTIRE MOISTURE PLUME IS SHUNTED DECIDEDLY
OFF THE COAST BY 18Z TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RELAXES. SPEAKING OF, IT IS THIS
STRONG LLJ THAT WILL YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG THE COAST A
FEW HOURS PRIOR TO AND FOLLOWING SUNRISE. SPC CONTINUES TO CAP THIS
RISK AT MARGINAL. TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD ADVECTION LOOKS PRETTY LAZY
AND SO THOUGH NOT AS MILD AS MONDAY  NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER UP RAIN-FREE
WEATHER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH BROAD, LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHINESS ONLY DRIVING A WEAK HIGH INTO THE MS
VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OFF THE EAST COAST DRIVING A
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH INTO SAME FOR A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH
PRESSURE GROWS AND STRENGTHENS UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY FOR A WARMUP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE BACK END OF THIS
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP AS
WELL AS PRECIP TYPE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...LIGHT PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO FORM
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SO THINK PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW A LOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTING IN JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...HOWEVER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET...SO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED...EMPHASIS ON LIGHT. ALONG THE COAST...A PRETTY GOOD
COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH RAIN BEGINNING AFTER DAYBREAK.
THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL BE IN THE WEDGE ALL DAY...HOWEVER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AROUND MID MORNING...SO
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN/SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY
DECREASING AS GRADIENT RELAXES. DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL TROUGH
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL HELP FURTHER WEAKEN THE GRADIENT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING NEAR 10 KT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE TROUGH
STARTS MOVING TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS. GRADIENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH BECOMES MORE DEFINED AND SPEEDS FOLLOW AN UPWARD
TREND...RETURNING TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL PUSH SEAS BACK INTO
THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE HOME
TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLELING THE COAST. THIS
FRONT WILL BE TRYING AND FAILING TO ADVANCE INLAND INTO WHAT
REMAINS OF THE ARCTIC WEDGE. JUST EAST OF THE FRONT A MODERATELY
STRONG GRADIENT AND LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP SO EVEN
THOUGH THE FRONT MAY YIELD A DECREASE IN WINDS THE SEAS WILL BE
GROWING TO ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DETERIORATES
AND THE BOUNDARY MOVES ASHORE THESE GRADIENT WINDS WILL ENTER THE
MARINE ZONES WITH GUSTO. A LATE NIGHT APPROACH OF A STRONGLY
FORCED COLD FRONT WILL VEER THE WINDS AND FURTHER TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THE ABSENCE OF STABILITY ARGUMENTS. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT A VERY
WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE MOVING OVER THE MUCH COOLER SSTS
VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE COMPROMISED. CURRENT FORECAST CONFINES A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO JUST A SMALL PART OF THE OUTER REACHES OF
NC WATERS. TUESDAY MIDDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING AN ABRUPT TURN
TO THE WEST AND A MARKED DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. ADVISORY LEVEL
SEAS LIKELY NEEDING TIL TUESDAY NIGHT TO SETTLE BELOW THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES UP AND DOWN THE MS VALLEY WITH NO STRONG
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE. LIGHT WIND AND
DIMINISHING SWELL ENERGY LEADS TO ABATING SEAS. THE HIGH GROWS,
STRENGTHENS, AND MOVES EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY WINDS WILL
TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THE GRADIENT SHOULD ACTUALLY SLACKEN
ESP LATE IN THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS. SEAS DROP IN HEIGHT BY
ABOUT A FOOT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 141636
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1135 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL BE SLOW
TO ERODE TOMORROW AS IT GETS OVERRUN WITH MOISTURE. A SOAKING RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE AFTERNOON FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS
STRAIGHT FORWARD. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST...MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. COLD ADVECTION HAS ALL BUT ENDED
WITH A PERIOD OF NEUTRAL ADVECTION SETTING UP FOR TODAY. MOISTURE
ALOFT SPREADING EAST IN THE PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED ALONG THE GULF COAST
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ENDED UP A LITTLE WARMER
THAN EXPECTED...PARTLY DUE TO PASSING CIRRUS AND PARTLY DUE TO
HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY BUT DID BUMP UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DEVELOP.

THE MORE DIFFICULT FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIP POTENTIAL (BOTH
CHANCES AND LIQUID VS FROZEN) OVERNIGHT AND HOW QUICKLY THE
SURFACE LAYER WARMS/MOISTENS. WHILE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT ISOLATED ICING ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS AS THE PERIOD
COMES TO AN END CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW. HAVE NO PLANS TO MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS MORNING BUT WITH THE LATEST
DATA STARTING TO ROLL HOPE TO HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF HOW THE EVENT
MIGHT PLAY OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOT SO WILLING TO BE
ERODED AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN FACT THERE EXISTS UP TO A 10
DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS INLAND FOR MONDAY. A VAST
MAJORITY OF TIME WHEN THIS IS THE CASE THE COLDER GUIDANCE ENDS UP
BEING CORRECT. AS SUCH THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TOWARDS THE
COOLER NUMBERS. GIVEN THE THREAT FOR PRECIP TO MANIFEST AS
FREEZING RAIN OVER DEEP INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE CRITICAL. HAVING SAID THAT, THE WINDOW
DURING WHICH ZR IS POSSIBLE REMAINS ONE OF LOW POPS AND MINIMAL
QPF SINCE FOR THE SAME REASON THE HIGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT IT
SHOULD ALSO BE SLOW TO SATURATE. A MODEL QPF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND WRF IS THAT THE LATTER LIKES A WETTER COAST MONDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL-FORMED SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THAT
MOST OF MONDAY`S FORCING IS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY DRY ABOVE 800 (OR IN SOME CASES 900) MB THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THE WEDGE FINALLY DOES BREAK MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE MONDAY NIGHT, IN SOME PLACES DRAMATICALLY (LOW 60S BY
MORNING?). THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT ALSO REPRESENTS WHEN THE
APPROACHING SYSTEMS MID LEVEL ASCENT FORCEFULLY KICKS IN. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD NOT PINPOINT HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL SINCE
HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA STRONGEST INLAND BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS ESP SC
MAY SEE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP, WHICH WILL THEN MOVE INTO CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY MORNING. THE ENTIRE MOISTURE PLUME IS SHUNTED DECIDEDLY
OFF THE COAST BY 18Z TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RELAXES. SPEAKING OF, IT IS THIS
STRONG LLJ THAT WILL YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG THE COAST A
FEW HOURS PRIOR TO AND FOLLOWING SUNRISE. SPC CONTINUES TO CAP THIS
RISK AT MARGINAL. TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD ADVECTION LOOKS PRETTY LAZY
AND SO THOUGH NOT AS MILD AS MONDAY  NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER UP RAIN-FREE
WEATHER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH BROAD, LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHINESS ONLY DRIVING A WEAK HIGH INTO THE MS
VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OFF THE EAST COAST DRIVING A
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH INTO SAME FOR A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH
PRESSURE GROWS AND STRENGTHENS UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY FOR A WARMUP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE BACK END OF THIS
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP AS
WELL AS PRECIP TYPE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...LIGHT PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO FORM
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SO THINK PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW A LOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTING IN JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...HOWEVER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET...SO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED...EMPHASIS ON LIGHT. ALONG THE COAST...A PRETTY GOOD
COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH RAIN BEGINNING AFTER DAYBREAK.
THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL BE IN THE WEDGE ALL DAY...HOWEVER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AROUND MID MORNING...SO
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN/SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY
AND GAIN MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIDES EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS EVENING. DEVELOPMENT
OF COASTAL TROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING OF
WINDS WITH EAST OR EVEN SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE PERIOD
ENDS. SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 FT THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE HOME
TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLELING THE COAST. THIS
FRONT WILL BE TRYING AND FAILING TO ADVANCE INLAND INTO WHAT
REMAINS OF THE ARCTIC WEDGE. JUST EAST OF THE FRONT A MODERATELY
STRONG GRADIENT AND LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP SO EVEN
THOUGH THE FRONT MAY YIELD A DECREASE IN WINDS THE SEAS WILL BE
GROWING TO ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DETERIORATES
AND THE BOUNDARY MOVES ASHORE THESE GRADIENT WINDS WILL ENTER THE
MARINE ZONES WITH GUSTO. A LATE NIGHT APPROACH OF A STRONGLY
FORCED COLD FRONT WILL VEER THE WINDS AND FURTHER TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THE ABSENCE OF STABILITY ARGUMENTS. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT A VERY
WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE MOVING OVER THE MUCH COOLER SSTS
VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE COMPROMISED. CURRENT FORECAST CONFINES A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO JUST A SMALL PART OF THE OUTER REACHES OF
NC WATERS. TUESDAY MIDDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING AN ABRUPT TURN
TO THE WEST AND A MARKED DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. ADVISORY LEVEL
SEAS LIKELY NEEDING TIL TUESDAY NIGHT TO SETTLE BELOW THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES UP AND DOWN THE MS VALLEY WITH NO STRONG
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE. LIGHT WIND AND
DIMINISHING SWELL ENERGY LEADS TO ABATING SEAS. THE HIGH GROWS,
STRENGTHENS, AND MOVES EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY WINDS WILL
TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THE GRADIENT SHOULD ACTUALLY SLACKEN
ESP LATE IN THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS. SEAS DROP IN HEIGHT BY
ABOUT A FOOT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 141502
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1002 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL BE SLOW
TO ERODE TOMORROW AS IT GETS OVERRUN WITH MOISTURE. A SOAKING RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE AFTERNOON FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS
STRAIGHT FORWARD. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST...MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. COLD ADVECTION HAS ALL BUT ENDED
WITH A PERIOD OF NEUTRAL ADVECTION SETTING UP FOR TODAY. MOISTURE
ALOFT SPREADING EAST IN THE PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED ALONG THE GULF COAST
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ENDED UP A LITTLE WARMER
THAN EXPECTED...PARTLY DUE TO PASSING CIRRUS AND PARTLY DUE TO
HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY BUT DID BUMP UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DEVELOP.

THE MORE DIFFICULT FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIP POTENTIAL (BOTH
CHANCES AND LIQUID VS FROZEN) OVERNIGHT AND HOW QUICKLY THE
SURFACE LAYER WARMS/MOISTENS. WHILE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT ISOLATED ICING ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS AS THE PERIOD
COMES TO AN END CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW. HAVE NO PLANS TO MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS MORNING BUT WITH THE LATEST
DATA STARTING TO ROLL HOPE TO HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF HOW THE EVENT
MIGHT PLAY OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOT SO WILLING TO BE
ERODED AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN FACT THERE EXISTS UP TO A 10
DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS INLAND FOR MONDAY. A VAST
MAJORITY OF TIME WHEN THIS IS THE CASE THE COLDER GUIDANCE ENDS UP
BEING CORRECT. AS SUCH THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TOWARDS THE
COOLER NUMBERS. GIVEN THE THREAT FOR PRECIP TO MANIFEST AS
FREEZING RAIN OVER DEEP INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE CRITICAL. HAVING SAID THAT, THE WINDOW
DURING WHICH ZR IS POSSIBLE REMAINS ONE OF LOW POPS AND MINIMAL
QPF SINCE FOR THE SAME REASON THE HIGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT IT
SHOULD ALSO BE SLOW TO SATURATE. A MODEL QPF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND WRF IS THAT THE LATTER LIKES A WETTER COAST MONDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL-FORMED SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THAT
MOST OF MONDAY`S FORCING IS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY DRY ABOVE 800 (OR IN SOME CASES 900) MB THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THE WEDGE FINALLY DOES BREAK MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE MONDAY NIGHT, IN SOME PLACES DRAMATICALLY (LOW 60S BY
MORNING?). THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT ALSO REPRESENTS WHEN THE
APPROACHING SYSTEMS MID LEVEL ASCENT FORCEFULLY KICKS IN. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD NOT PINPOINT HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL SINCE
HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA STRONGEST INLAND BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS ESP SC
MAY SEE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP, WHICH WILL THEN MOVE INTO CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY MORNING. THE ENTIRE MOISTURE PLUME IS SHUNTED DECIDEDLY
OFF THE COAST BY 18Z TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RELAXES. SPEAKING OF, IT IS THIS
STRONG LLJ THAT WILL YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG THE COAST A
FEW HOURS PRIOR TO AND FOLLOWING SUNRISE. SPC CONTINUES TO CAP THIS
RISK AT MARGINAL. TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD ADVECTION LOOKS PRETTY LAZY
AND SO THOUGH NOT AS MILD AS MONDAY  NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER UP RAIN-FREE
WEATHER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH BROAD, LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHINESS ONLY DRIVING A WEAK HIGH INTO THE MS
VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OFF THE EAST COAST DRIVING A
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH INTO SAME FOR A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH
PRESSURE GROWS AND STRENGTHENS UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY FOR A WARMUP.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...PERHAPS GUSTING
TO 18 KTS OR SO AT TIMES. TONIGHT...A MID CLOUD CEILING WILL LOWER
TO AT LEAST MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP WILL BEGIN FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE MYRTLES. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS...BUT LIKELY TOO WARM AT THE COAST WITH THE
WEDGE ERODING TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT RAIN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY
AND GAIN MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIDES EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS EVENING. DEVELOPMENT
OF COASTAL TROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING OF
WINDS WITH EAST OR EVEN SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE PERIOD
ENDS. SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 FT THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE HOME
TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLELING THE COAST. THIS
FRONT WILL BE TRYING AND FAILING TO ADVANCE INLAND INTO WHAT
REMAINS OF THE ARCTIC WEDGE. JUST EAST OF THE FRONT A MODERATELY
STRONG GRADIENT AND LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP SO EVEN
THOUGH THE FRONT MAY YIELD A DECREASE IN WINDS THE SEAS WILL BE
GROWING TO ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DETERIORATES
AND THE BOUNDARY MOVES ASHORE THESE GRADIENT WINDS WILL ENTER THE
MARINE ZONES WITH GUSTO. A LATE NIGHT APPROACH OF A STRONGLY
FORCED COLD FRONT WILL VEER THE WINDS AND FURTHER TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THE ABSENCE OF STABILITY ARGUMENTS. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT A VERY
WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE MOVING OVER THE MUCH COOLER SSTS
VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE COMPROMISED. CURRENT FORECAST CONFINES A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO JUST A SMALL PART OF THE OUTER REACHES OF
NC WATERS. TUESDAY MIDDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING AN ABRUPT TURN
TO THE WEST AND A MARKED DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. ADVISORY LEVEL
SEAS LIKELY NEEDING TIL TUESDAY NIGHT TO SETTLE BELOW THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES UP AND DOWN THE MS VALLEY WITH NO STRONG
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE. LIGHT WIND AND
DIMINISHING SWELL ENERGY LEADS TO ABATING SEAS. THE HIGH GROWS,
STRENGTHENS, AND MOVES EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY WINDS WILL
TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THE GRADIENT SHOULD ACTUALLY SLACKEN
ESP LATE IN THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS. SEAS DROP IN HEIGHT BY
ABOUT A FOOT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 141115
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL BE SLOW
TO ERODE TOMORROW AS IT GETS OVERRUN WITH MOISTURE. A SOAKING RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN IS CONTINUING A SURGE OF VERY COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP FURTHER EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...LIMITING MIXING
AND IMPROVING RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTIVENESS. STILL EXPECTING
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS BY DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE WANE...A VERY
COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BRING US TEMPERATURES VERY WELL
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS IS FROM
20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING UPON LOCATION.  THE DAY WILL
START OUT WITH AMPLE SUN...BUT SATELLITE LOOPS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INCREASING CIRRUS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

A CHANGE IS IN THE CARDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THIS PERIOD AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS AND
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN OFF THE OCEAN. MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BRING STRATUS ALONG
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION HERE. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WELL
INLAND. INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL THICKEN CLOUDS AND BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...MAINLY WEST OF I-95
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF ANY
ADVISORY PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
WEAK RETURN FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE AN ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH OUR MINIMUM HAPPENING RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING FROM THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOT SO WILLING TO BE
ERODED AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN FACT THERE EXISTS UP TO A 10
DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS INLAND FOR MONDAY. A VAST
MAJORITY OF TIME WHEN THIS IS THE CASE THE COLDER GUIDANCE ENDS UP
BEING CORRECT. AS SUCH THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TOWARDS THE
COOLER NUMBERS. GIVEN THE THREAT FOR PRECIP TO MANIFEST AS
FREEZING RAIN OVER DEEP INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE CRITICAL. HAVING SAID THAT, THE WINDOW
DURING WHICH ZR IS POSSIBLE REMAINS ONE OF LOW POPS AND MINIMAL
QPF SINCE FOR THE SAME REASON THE HIGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT IT
SHOULD ALSO BE SLOW TO SATURATE. A MODEL QPF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND WRF IS THAT THE LATTER LIKES A WETTER COAST MONDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL-FORMED SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THAT
MOST OF MONDAY`S FORCING IS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY DRY ABOVE 800 (OR IN SOME CASES 900) MB THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THE WEDGE FINALLY DOES BREAK MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE MONDAY NIGHT, IN SOME PLACES DRAMATICALLY (LOW 60S BY
MORNING?). THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT ALSO REPRESENTS WHEN THE
APPROACHING SYSTEMS MID LEVEL ASCENT FORCEFULLY KICKS IN. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD NOT PINPOINT HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL SINCE
HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA STRONGEST INLAND BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS ESP SC
MAY SEE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP, WHICH WILL THEN MOVE INTO CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY MORNING. THE ENTIRE MOISTURE PLUME IS SHUNTED DECIDEDLY
OFF THE COAST BY 18Z TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RELAXES. SPEAKING OF, IT IS THIS
STRONG LLJ THAT WILL YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG THE COAST A
FEW HOURS PRIOR TO AND FOLLOWING SUNRISE. SPC CONTINUES TO CAP THIS
RISK AT MARGINAL. TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD ADVECTION LOOKS PRETTY LAZY
AND SO THOUGH NOT AS MILD AS MONDAY  NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER UP RAIN-FREE
WEATHER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH BROAD, LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHINESS ONLY DRIVING A WEAK HIGH INTO THE MS
VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OFF THE EAST COAST DRIVING A
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH INTO SAME FOR A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH
PRESSURE GROWS AND STRENGTHENS UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY FOR A WARMUP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...PERHAPS GUSTING
TO 18 KTS OR SO AT TIMES. TONIGHT...A MID CLOUD CEILING WILL LOWER
TO AT LEAST MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP WILL BEGIN FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE MYRTLES. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS...BUT LIKELY TOO WARM AT THE COAST WITH THE
WEDGE ERODING TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT RAIN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...PUTTING AN END TO THE PRESENT
VIGOROUS COLD SURGE. PRESENT N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL BECOME
NE LATER THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARDS...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE HOME
TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLELING THE COAST. THIS
FRONT WILL BE TRYING AND FAILING TO ADVANCE INLAND INTO WHAT
REMAINS OF THE ARCTIC WEDGE. JUST EAST OF THE FRONT A MODERATELY
STRONG GRADIENT AND LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP SO EVEN
THOUGH THE FRONT MAY YIELD A DECREASE IN WINDS THE SEAS WILL BE
GROWING TO ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DETERIORATES
AND THE BOUNDARY MOVES ASHORE THESE GRADIENT WINDS WILL ENTER THE
MARINE ZONES WITH GUSTO. A LATE NIGHT APPROACH OF A STRONGLY
FORCED COLD FRONT WILL VEER THE WINDS AND FURTHER TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THE ABSENCE OF STABILITY ARGUMENTS. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT A VERY
WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE MOVING OVER THE MUCH COOLER SSTS
VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE COMPROMISED. CURRENT FORECAST CONFINES A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO JUST A SMALL PART OF THE OUTER REACHES OF
NC WATERS. TUESDAY MIDDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING AN ABRUPT TURN
TO THE WEST AND A MARKED DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. ADVISORY LEVEL
SEAS LIKELY NEEDING TIL TUESDAY NIGHT TO SETTLE BELOW THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES UP AND DOWN THE MS VALLEY WITH NO STRONG
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE. LIGHT WIND AND
DIMINISHING SWELL ENERGY LEADS TO ABATING SEAS. THE HIGH GROWS,
STRENGTHENS, AND MOVES EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY WINDS WILL
TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THE GRADIENT SHOULD ACTUALLY SLACKEN
ESP LATE IN THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS. SEAS DROP IN HEIGHT BY
ABOUT A FOOT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 141115
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL BE SLOW
TO ERODE TOMORROW AS IT GETS OVERRUN WITH MOISTURE. A SOAKING RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN IS CONTINUING A SURGE OF VERY COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP FURTHER EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...LIMITING MIXING
AND IMPROVING RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTIVENESS. STILL EXPECTING
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS BY DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE WANE...A VERY
COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BRING US TEMPERATURES VERY WELL
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS IS FROM
20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING UPON LOCATION.  THE DAY WILL
START OUT WITH AMPLE SUN...BUT SATELLITE LOOPS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INCREASING CIRRUS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

A CHANGE IS IN THE CARDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THIS PERIOD AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS AND
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN OFF THE OCEAN. MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BRING STRATUS ALONG
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION HERE. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WELL
INLAND. INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL THICKEN CLOUDS AND BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...MAINLY WEST OF I-95
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF ANY
ADVISORY PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
WEAK RETURN FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE AN ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH OUR MINIMUM HAPPENING RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING FROM THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOT SO WILLING TO BE
ERODED AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN FACT THERE EXISTS UP TO A 10
DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS INLAND FOR MONDAY. A VAST
MAJORITY OF TIME WHEN THIS IS THE CASE THE COLDER GUIDANCE ENDS UP
BEING CORRECT. AS SUCH THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TOWARDS THE
COOLER NUMBERS. GIVEN THE THREAT FOR PRECIP TO MANIFEST AS
FREEZING RAIN OVER DEEP INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE CRITICAL. HAVING SAID THAT, THE WINDOW
DURING WHICH ZR IS POSSIBLE REMAINS ONE OF LOW POPS AND MINIMAL
QPF SINCE FOR THE SAME REASON THE HIGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT IT
SHOULD ALSO BE SLOW TO SATURATE. A MODEL QPF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND WRF IS THAT THE LATTER LIKES A WETTER COAST MONDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL-FORMED SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THAT
MOST OF MONDAY`S FORCING IS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY DRY ABOVE 800 (OR IN SOME CASES 900) MB THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THE WEDGE FINALLY DOES BREAK MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE MONDAY NIGHT, IN SOME PLACES DRAMATICALLY (LOW 60S BY
MORNING?). THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT ALSO REPRESENTS WHEN THE
APPROACHING SYSTEMS MID LEVEL ASCENT FORCEFULLY KICKS IN. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD NOT PINPOINT HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL SINCE
HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA STRONGEST INLAND BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS ESP SC
MAY SEE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP, WHICH WILL THEN MOVE INTO CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY MORNING. THE ENTIRE MOISTURE PLUME IS SHUNTED DECIDEDLY
OFF THE COAST BY 18Z TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RELAXES. SPEAKING OF, IT IS THIS
STRONG LLJ THAT WILL YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG THE COAST A
FEW HOURS PRIOR TO AND FOLLOWING SUNRISE. SPC CONTINUES TO CAP THIS
RISK AT MARGINAL. TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD ADVECTION LOOKS PRETTY LAZY
AND SO THOUGH NOT AS MILD AS MONDAY  NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER UP RAIN-FREE
WEATHER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH BROAD, LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHINESS ONLY DRIVING A WEAK HIGH INTO THE MS
VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OFF THE EAST COAST DRIVING A
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH INTO SAME FOR A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH
PRESSURE GROWS AND STRENGTHENS UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY FOR A WARMUP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...PERHAPS GUSTING
TO 18 KTS OR SO AT TIMES. TONIGHT...A MID CLOUD CEILING WILL LOWER
TO AT LEAST MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP WILL BEGIN FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE MYRTLES. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS...BUT LIKELY TOO WARM AT THE COAST WITH THE
WEDGE ERODING TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT RAIN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...PUTTING AN END TO THE PRESENT
VIGOROUS COLD SURGE. PRESENT N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL BECOME
NE LATER THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARDS...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE HOME
TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLELING THE COAST. THIS
FRONT WILL BE TRYING AND FAILING TO ADVANCE INLAND INTO WHAT
REMAINS OF THE ARCTIC WEDGE. JUST EAST OF THE FRONT A MODERATELY
STRONG GRADIENT AND LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP SO EVEN
THOUGH THE FRONT MAY YIELD A DECREASE IN WINDS THE SEAS WILL BE
GROWING TO ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DETERIORATES
AND THE BOUNDARY MOVES ASHORE THESE GRADIENT WINDS WILL ENTER THE
MARINE ZONES WITH GUSTO. A LATE NIGHT APPROACH OF A STRONGLY
FORCED COLD FRONT WILL VEER THE WINDS AND FURTHER TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THE ABSENCE OF STABILITY ARGUMENTS. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT A VERY
WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE MOVING OVER THE MUCH COOLER SSTS
VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE COMPROMISED. CURRENT FORECAST CONFINES A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO JUST A SMALL PART OF THE OUTER REACHES OF
NC WATERS. TUESDAY MIDDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING AN ABRUPT TURN
TO THE WEST AND A MARKED DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. ADVISORY LEVEL
SEAS LIKELY NEEDING TIL TUESDAY NIGHT TO SETTLE BELOW THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES UP AND DOWN THE MS VALLEY WITH NO STRONG
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE. LIGHT WIND AND
DIMINISHING SWELL ENERGY LEADS TO ABATING SEAS. THE HIGH GROWS,
STRENGTHENS, AND MOVES EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY WINDS WILL
TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THE GRADIENT SHOULD ACTUALLY SLACKEN
ESP LATE IN THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS. SEAS DROP IN HEIGHT BY
ABOUT A FOOT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/MBB





000
FXUS62 KILM 141101
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
601 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL BE SLOW
TO ERODE TOMORROW AS IT GETS OVERRUN WITH MOISTURE. A SOAKING RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN IS CONTINUING A SURGE OF VERY COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP FURTHER EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...LIMITING MIXING
AND IMPROVING RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTIVENESS. STILL EXPECTING
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS BY DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE WANE...A VERY
COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BRING US TEMPERATURES VERY WELL
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS IS FROM
20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING UPON LOCATION.  THE DAY WILL
START OUT WITH AMPLE SUN...BUT SATELLITE LOOPS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INCREASING CIRRUS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

A CHANGE IS IN THE CARDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THIS PERIOD AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS AND
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN OFF THE OCEAN. MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BRING STRATUS ALONG
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION HERE. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WELL
INLAND. INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL THICKEN CLOUDS AND BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...MAINLY WEST OF I-95
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF ANY
ADVISORY PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
WEAK RETURN FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE AN ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH OUR MINIMUM HAPPENING RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING FROM THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOT SO WILLING TO BE
ERODED AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN FACT THERE EXISTS UP TO A 10
DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS INLAND FOR MONDAY. A VAST
MAJORITY OF TIME WHEN THIS IS THE CASE THE COLDER GUIDANCE ENDS UP
BEING CORRECT. AS SUCH THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TOWARDS THE
COOLER NUMBERS. GIVEN THE THREAT FOR PRECIP TO MANIFEST AS
FREEZING RAIN OVER DEEP INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE CRITICAL. HAVING SAID THAT, THE WINDOW
DURING WHICH ZR IS POSSIBLE REMAINS ONE OF LOW POPS AND MINIMAL
QPF SINCE FOR THE SAME REASON THE HIGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT IT
SHOULD ALSO BE SLOW TO SATURATE. A MODEL QPF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND WRF IS THAT THE LATTER LIKES A WETTER COAST MONDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL-FORMED SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THAT
MOST OF MONDAY`S FORCING IS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY DRY ABOVE 800 (OR IN SOME CASES 900) MB THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THE WEDGE FINALLY DOES BREAK MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE MONDAY NIGHT, IN SOME PLACES DRAMATICALLY (LOW 60S BY
MORNING?). THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT ALSO REPRESENTS WHEN THE
APPROACHING SYSTEMS MID LEVEL ASCENT FORCEFULLY KICKS IN. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD NOT PINPOINT HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL SINCE
HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA STRONGEST INLAND BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS ESP SC
MAY SEE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP, WHICH WILL THEN MOVE INTO CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY MORNING. THE ENTIRE MOISTURE PLUME IS SHUNTED DECIDEDLY
OFF THE COAST BY 18Z TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RELAXES. SPEAKING OF, IT IS THIS
STRONG LLJ THAT WILL YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG THE COAST A
FEW HOURS PRIOR TO AND FOLLOWING SUNRISE. SPC CONTINUES TO CAP THIS
RISK AT MARGINAL. TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD ADVECTION LOOKS PRETTY LAZY
AND SO THOUGH NOT AS MILD AS MONDAY  NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER UP RAIN-FREE
WEATHER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH BROAD, LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHINESS ONLY DRIVING A WEAK HIGH INTO THE MS
VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OFF THE EAST COAST DRIVING A
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH INTO SAME FOR A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH
PRESSURE GROWS AND STRENGTHENS UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY FOR A WARMUP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. QUIET
CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS IN
THE MORNING WILL VEER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...PUTTING AN END TO THE PRESENT
VIGOROUS COLD SURGE. PRESENT N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL BECOME
NE LATER THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARDS...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE HOME
TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLELING THE COAST. THIS
FRONT WILL BE TRYING AND FAILING TO ADVANCE INLAND INTO WHAT
REMAINS OF THE ARCTIC WEDGE. JUST EAST OF THE FRONT A MODERATELY
STRONG GRADIENT AND LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP SO EVEN
THOUGH THE FRONT MAY YIELD A DECREASE IN WINDS THE SEAS WILL BE
GROWING TO ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DETERIORATES
AND THE BOUNDARY MOVES ASHORE THESE GRADIENT WINDS WILL ENTER THE
MARINE ZONES WITH GUSTO. A LATE NIGHT APPROACH OF A STRONGLY
FORCED COLD FRONT WILL VEER THE WINDS AND FURTHER TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THE ABSENCE OF STABILITY ARGUMENTS. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT A VERY
WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE MOVING OVER THE MUCH COOLER SSTS
VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE COMPROMISED. CURRENT FORECAST CONFINES A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO JUST A SMALL PART OF THE OUTER REACHES OF
NC WATERS. TUESDAY MIDDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING AN ABRUPT TURN
TO THE WEST AND A MARKED DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. ADVISORY LEVEL
SEAS LIKELY NEEDING TIL TUESDAY NIGHT TO SETTLE BELOW THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES UP AND DOWN THE MS VALLEY WITH NO STRONG
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE. LIGHT WIND AND
DIMINISHING SWELL ENERGY LEADS TO ABATING SEAS. THE HIGH GROWS,
STRENGTHENS, AND MOVES EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY WINDS WILL
TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THE GRADIENT SHOULD ACTUALLY SLACKEN
ESP LATE IN THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS. SEAS DROP IN HEIGHT BY
ABOUT A FOOT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 141101
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
601 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL BE SLOW
TO ERODE TOMORROW AS IT GETS OVERRUN WITH MOISTURE. A SOAKING RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN IS CONTINUING A SURGE OF VERY COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP FURTHER EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...LIMITING MIXING
AND IMPROVING RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTIVENESS. STILL EXPECTING
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS BY DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE WANE...A VERY
COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BRING US TEMPERATURES VERY WELL
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS IS FROM
20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING UPON LOCATION.  THE DAY WILL
START OUT WITH AMPLE SUN...BUT SATELLITE LOOPS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INCREASING CIRRUS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

A CHANGE IS IN THE CARDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THIS PERIOD AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS AND
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN OFF THE OCEAN. MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BRING STRATUS ALONG
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION HERE. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WELL
INLAND. INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL THICKEN CLOUDS AND BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...MAINLY WEST OF I-95
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF ANY
ADVISORY PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
WEAK RETURN FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE AN ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH OUR MINIMUM HAPPENING RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING FROM THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOT SO WILLING TO BE
ERODED AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN FACT THERE EXISTS UP TO A 10
DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS INLAND FOR MONDAY. A VAST
MAJORITY OF TIME WHEN THIS IS THE CASE THE COLDER GUIDANCE ENDS UP
BEING CORRECT. AS SUCH THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TOWARDS THE
COOLER NUMBERS. GIVEN THE THREAT FOR PRECIP TO MANIFEST AS
FREEZING RAIN OVER DEEP INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE CRITICAL. HAVING SAID THAT, THE WINDOW
DURING WHICH ZR IS POSSIBLE REMAINS ONE OF LOW POPS AND MINIMAL
QPF SINCE FOR THE SAME REASON THE HIGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT IT
SHOULD ALSO BE SLOW TO SATURATE. A MODEL QPF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND WRF IS THAT THE LATTER LIKES A WETTER COAST MONDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL-FORMED SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THAT
MOST OF MONDAY`S FORCING IS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY DRY ABOVE 800 (OR IN SOME CASES 900) MB THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THE WEDGE FINALLY DOES BREAK MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE MONDAY NIGHT, IN SOME PLACES DRAMATICALLY (LOW 60S BY
MORNING?). THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT ALSO REPRESENTS WHEN THE
APPROACHING SYSTEMS MID LEVEL ASCENT FORCEFULLY KICKS IN. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD NOT PINPOINT HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL SINCE
HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA STRONGEST INLAND BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS ESP SC
MAY SEE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP, WHICH WILL THEN MOVE INTO CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY MORNING. THE ENTIRE MOISTURE PLUME IS SHUNTED DECIDEDLY
OFF THE COAST BY 18Z TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RELAXES. SPEAKING OF, IT IS THIS
STRONG LLJ THAT WILL YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG THE COAST A
FEW HOURS PRIOR TO AND FOLLOWING SUNRISE. SPC CONTINUES TO CAP THIS
RISK AT MARGINAL. TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD ADVECTION LOOKS PRETTY LAZY
AND SO THOUGH NOT AS MILD AS MONDAY  NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER UP RAIN-FREE
WEATHER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH BROAD, LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHINESS ONLY DRIVING A WEAK HIGH INTO THE MS
VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OFF THE EAST COAST DRIVING A
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH INTO SAME FOR A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH
PRESSURE GROWS AND STRENGTHENS UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY FOR A WARMUP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. QUIET
CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS IN
THE MORNING WILL VEER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...PUTTING AN END TO THE PRESENT
VIGOROUS COLD SURGE. PRESENT N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL BECOME
NE LATER THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARDS...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE HOME
TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLELING THE COAST. THIS
FRONT WILL BE TRYING AND FAILING TO ADVANCE INLAND INTO WHAT
REMAINS OF THE ARCTIC WEDGE. JUST EAST OF THE FRONT A MODERATELY
STRONG GRADIENT AND LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP SO EVEN
THOUGH THE FRONT MAY YIELD A DECREASE IN WINDS THE SEAS WILL BE
GROWING TO ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DETERIORATES
AND THE BOUNDARY MOVES ASHORE THESE GRADIENT WINDS WILL ENTER THE
MARINE ZONES WITH GUSTO. A LATE NIGHT APPROACH OF A STRONGLY
FORCED COLD FRONT WILL VEER THE WINDS AND FURTHER TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THE ABSENCE OF STABILITY ARGUMENTS. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT A VERY
WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE MOVING OVER THE MUCH COOLER SSTS
VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE COMPROMISED. CURRENT FORECAST CONFINES A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO JUST A SMALL PART OF THE OUTER REACHES OF
NC WATERS. TUESDAY MIDDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING AN ABRUPT TURN
TO THE WEST AND A MARKED DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. ADVISORY LEVEL
SEAS LIKELY NEEDING TIL TUESDAY NIGHT TO SETTLE BELOW THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES UP AND DOWN THE MS VALLEY WITH NO STRONG
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE. LIGHT WIND AND
DIMINISHING SWELL ENERGY LEADS TO ABATING SEAS. THE HIGH GROWS,
STRENGTHENS, AND MOVES EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY WINDS WILL
TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THE GRADIENT SHOULD ACTUALLY SLACKEN
ESP LATE IN THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS. SEAS DROP IN HEIGHT BY
ABOUT A FOOT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/MBB





000
FXUS62 KILM 141101
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
601 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL BE SLOW
TO ERODE TOMORROW AS IT GETS OVERRUN WITH MOISTURE. A SOAKING RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN IS CONTINUING A SURGE OF VERY COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP FURTHER EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...LIMITING MIXING
AND IMPROVING RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTIVENESS. STILL EXPECTING
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS BY DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE WANE...A VERY
COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BRING US TEMPERATURES VERY WELL
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS IS FROM
20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING UPON LOCATION.  THE DAY WILL
START OUT WITH AMPLE SUN...BUT SATELLITE LOOPS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INCREASING CIRRUS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

A CHANGE IS IN THE CARDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THIS PERIOD AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS AND
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN OFF THE OCEAN. MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BRING STRATUS ALONG
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION HERE. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WELL
INLAND. INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL THICKEN CLOUDS AND BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...MAINLY WEST OF I-95
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF ANY
ADVISORY PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
WEAK RETURN FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE AN ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH OUR MINIMUM HAPPENING RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING FROM THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOT SO WILLING TO BE
ERODED AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN FACT THERE EXISTS UP TO A 10
DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS INLAND FOR MONDAY. A VAST
MAJORITY OF TIME WHEN THIS IS THE CASE THE COLDER GUIDANCE ENDS UP
BEING CORRECT. AS SUCH THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TOWARDS THE
COOLER NUMBERS. GIVEN THE THREAT FOR PRECIP TO MANIFEST AS
FREEZING RAIN OVER DEEP INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE CRITICAL. HAVING SAID THAT, THE WINDOW
DURING WHICH ZR IS POSSIBLE REMAINS ONE OF LOW POPS AND MINIMAL
QPF SINCE FOR THE SAME REASON THE HIGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT IT
SHOULD ALSO BE SLOW TO SATURATE. A MODEL QPF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND WRF IS THAT THE LATTER LIKES A WETTER COAST MONDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL-FORMED SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THAT
MOST OF MONDAY`S FORCING IS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY DRY ABOVE 800 (OR IN SOME CASES 900) MB THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THE WEDGE FINALLY DOES BREAK MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE MONDAY NIGHT, IN SOME PLACES DRAMATICALLY (LOW 60S BY
MORNING?). THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT ALSO REPRESENTS WHEN THE
APPROACHING SYSTEMS MID LEVEL ASCENT FORCEFULLY KICKS IN. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD NOT PINPOINT HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL SINCE
HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA STRONGEST INLAND BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS ESP SC
MAY SEE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP, WHICH WILL THEN MOVE INTO CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY MORNING. THE ENTIRE MOISTURE PLUME IS SHUNTED DECIDEDLY
OFF THE COAST BY 18Z TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RELAXES. SPEAKING OF, IT IS THIS
STRONG LLJ THAT WILL YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG THE COAST A
FEW HOURS PRIOR TO AND FOLLOWING SUNRISE. SPC CONTINUES TO CAP THIS
RISK AT MARGINAL. TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD ADVECTION LOOKS PRETTY LAZY
AND SO THOUGH NOT AS MILD AS MONDAY  NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER UP RAIN-FREE
WEATHER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH BROAD, LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHINESS ONLY DRIVING A WEAK HIGH INTO THE MS
VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OFF THE EAST COAST DRIVING A
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH INTO SAME FOR A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH
PRESSURE GROWS AND STRENGTHENS UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY FOR A WARMUP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. QUIET
CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS IN
THE MORNING WILL VEER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...PUTTING AN END TO THE PRESENT
VIGOROUS COLD SURGE. PRESENT N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL BECOME
NE LATER THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARDS...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE HOME
TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLELING THE COAST. THIS
FRONT WILL BE TRYING AND FAILING TO ADVANCE INLAND INTO WHAT
REMAINS OF THE ARCTIC WEDGE. JUST EAST OF THE FRONT A MODERATELY
STRONG GRADIENT AND LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP SO EVEN
THOUGH THE FRONT MAY YIELD A DECREASE IN WINDS THE SEAS WILL BE
GROWING TO ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DETERIORATES
AND THE BOUNDARY MOVES ASHORE THESE GRADIENT WINDS WILL ENTER THE
MARINE ZONES WITH GUSTO. A LATE NIGHT APPROACH OF A STRONGLY
FORCED COLD FRONT WILL VEER THE WINDS AND FURTHER TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN THE ABSENCE OF STABILITY ARGUMENTS. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT A VERY
WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE MOVING OVER THE MUCH COOLER SSTS
VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE COMPROMISED. CURRENT FORECAST CONFINES A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO JUST A SMALL PART OF THE OUTER REACHES OF
NC WATERS. TUESDAY MIDDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING AN ABRUPT TURN
TO THE WEST AND A MARKED DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. ADVISORY LEVEL
SEAS LIKELY NEEDING TIL TUESDAY NIGHT TO SETTLE BELOW THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES UP AND DOWN THE MS VALLEY WITH NO STRONG
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE. LIGHT WIND AND
DIMINISHING SWELL ENERGY LEADS TO ABATING SEAS. THE HIGH GROWS,
STRENGTHENS, AND MOVES EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY WINDS WILL
TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THE GRADIENT SHOULD ACTUALLY SLACKEN
ESP LATE IN THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS. SEAS DROP IN HEIGHT BY
ABOUT A FOOT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/MBB





000
FXUS62 KILM 140808
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL BE SLOW
TO ERODE TOMORROW AS IT GETS OVERRUN WITH MOISTURE. A SOAKING RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN IS CONTINUING A SURGE OF VERY COLD AND
DRY AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...WITH
TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
FURTHER EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES CLOSER
OVERHEAD...LIMITING MIXING AND IMPROVING RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTIVENESS. STILL EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS BY DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE WANE...A VERY
COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BRING US TEMPERATURES VERY WELL
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS IS FROM
20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING UPON LOCATION.  THE DAY WILL
START OUT WITH AMPLE SUN...BUT SATELLITE LOOPS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INCREASING CIRRUS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

A CHANGE IS IN THE CARDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THIS PERIOD AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS AND
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN OFF THE OCEAN. MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BRING STRATUS ALONG
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION HERE. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WELL
INLAND. INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL THICKEN CLOUDS AND BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...MAINLY WEST OF I-95
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF ANY
ADVISORY PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
WEAK RETURN FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE AN ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH OUR MINIMUM HAPPENING RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING FROM THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOT SO WILLING TO BE ERODED AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. IN FACT THERE EXISTS UP TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN
FORECAST HIGHS INLAND FOR MONDAY. A VAST MAJORITY OF TIME WHEN THIS
IS THE CASE THE COLDER GUIDANCE ENDS UP BEING CORRECT. AS SUCH THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TOWARDS THE COOLER NUMBERS. GIVEN THE
THREAT FOR PRECIP TO MANIFEST AS FREEZING RAIN OVER DEEP INTERIOR
COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING THESE DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE CRITICAL.
HAVING SAID THAT, THE WINDOW DURING WHICH ZR IS POSSIBLE REMAINS ONE
OF LOW POPS AND MINIMAL QPF SINCE FOR THE SAME REASON THE HIGH IS
SLOW TO MOVE OUT IT SHOULD ALSO BE SLOW TO SATURATE. A MODEL QPF
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF IS THAT THE LATTER LIKES A WETTER
COAST MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL-FORMED SURFACE TROUGH.
GIVEN THAT MOST OF MONDAY`S FORCING IS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY DRY ABOVE 800 (OR IN SOME CASES 900)
MB THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THE WEDGE FINALLY DOES BREAK MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE MONDAY NIGHT, IN SOME PLACES DRAMATICALLY (LOW 60S BY
MORNING?). THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT ALSO REPRESENTS WHEN THE
APPROACHING SYSTEMS MID LEVEL ASCENT FORCEFULLY KICKS IN. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD NOT PINPOINT HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL SINCE
HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA STRONGEST INLAND BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS ESP SC
MAY SEE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP, WHICH WILL THEN MOVE INTO CAPE
FEAR TUESDAY MORNING. THE ENTIRE MOISTURE PLUME IS SHUNTED DECIDEDLY
OFF THE COAST BY 18Z TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RELAXES. SPEAKING OF, IT IS THIS
STRONG LLJ THAT WILL YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG THE COAST A
FEW HOURS PRIOR TO AND FOLLOWING SUNRISE. SPC CONTINUES TO CAP THIS
RISK AT MARGINAL. TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD ADVECTION LOOKS PRETTY LAZY
AND SO THOUGH NOT AS MILD AS MONDAY  NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...   THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER UP RAIN-FREE
WEATHER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH BROAD, LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHINESS ONLY DRIVING A WEAK HIGH INTO THE MS
VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OFF THE EAST COAST DRIVING A
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH INTO SAME FOR A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH
PRESSURE GROWS AND STRENGTHENS UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FOR A WARMUP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. QUIET
CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS IN
THE MORNING WILL VEER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...PUTTING AN END TO
THE PRESENT VIGOROUS COLD SURGE. PRESENT N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
WILL BECOME NE LATER THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARDS...BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE HOME TO
A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLELING THE COAST. THIS FRONT
WILL BE TRYING AND FAILING TO ADVANCE INLAND INTO WHAT REMAINS OF
THE ARCTIC WEDGE. JUST EAST OF THE FRONT A MODERATELY STRONG
GRADIENT AND LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP SO EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONT MAY YIELD A DECREASE IN WINDS THE SEAS WILL BE GROWING TO
ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DETERIORATES AND THE
BOUNDARY MOVES ASHORE THESE GRADIENT WINDS WILL ENTER THE MARINE
ZONES WITH GUSTO. A LATE NIGHT APPROACH OF A STRONGLY FORCED COLD
FRONT WILL VEER THE WINDS AND FURTHER TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT. LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE ABSENCE
OF STABILITY ARGUMENTS. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL
BE IN PLACE MOVING OVER THE MUCH COOLER SSTS VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE
COMPROMISED. CURRENT FORECAST CONFINES A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
JUST A SMALL PART OF THE OUTER REACHES OF NC WATERS. TUESDAY MIDDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING AN ABRUPT TURN TO THE WEST AND A MARKED
DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS LIKELY NEEDING TIL
TUESDAY NIGHT TO SETTLE BELOW THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...    WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES UP AND DOWN THE MS VALLEY WITH NO STRONG GRADIENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE. LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL
ENERGY LEADS TO ABATING SEAS. THE HIGH GROWS, STRENGTHENS, AND MOVES
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND
THE GRADIENT SHOULD ACTUALLY SLACKEN ESP LATE IN THE DAY AS RIDGE
AXIS NEARS. SEAS DROP IN HEIGHT BY ABOUT A FOOT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WILL ISSUE YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER...CENTERED
AROUND HIGH TIDE AT 2:27 PM EST. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS MINOR
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TIL 4 PM FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 140512
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1212 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AS MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA...COLD AIR
LOCKED IN ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM SUNDAY...TEMPS A LITTLE SLOW TO FALL DURING THE
EVENING DUE TO ONGOING MIXING...BUT IT IS STILL QUITE CHILLY OUT
THERE WITH READINGS NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST PLACES. HAVE
NUDGED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE...BUT OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...AS CLEAR AND
COLD CONDITIONS PAN-OUT THIS EVENING WITH MANY LOCALS ALREADY AT
SUB- FREEZING AT 02Z/9PM. WIND-CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER 20S
CURRENTLY...WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS LATER THIS EVENING...AND
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE
WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO
10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS
ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850 TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON
TOP OF THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING
JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW
HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER
COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
BLADEN...ROBESON...AND MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT WEDGES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEDGING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT WHAT THEY MAY BE DOING IN ERROR...IS
BRINGING THE TROUGH INLAND TOO QUICKLY AND DISLODGING THE WEDGE.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND ARW SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH MORE REALISTIC
DEPICTION. THUS EXPECT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO HANG ON LONGER
INLAND MON.

THIS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE ON
MON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. DRY AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO HANG ON
BELOW 800 FT SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO EVAPORATE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUN AND THEN THICKEN SUN NIGHT. CLOUDS SUN NIGHT ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST. COLDEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
TEMPS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS
WE APPROACH MON MORNING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT MON MORNING...WE EXPECT IT WILL BE
ALL RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EYF TO DILLON TO JUST
NORTH OF THE FLORENCE-DARLINGTON COUNTY LINE...WE WILL INCLUDE THE
RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE GROUND TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AFTER THIS ARCTIC BLAST. ACCRETION IN THIS AREA IS
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS STEADIER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE COLUMN AND ERODES THE LAST OF THE
WEDGE...MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WE EXPECT LIQUID RAIN THROUGHOUT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MON AND MON NIGHT MAY REACH UP TO AROUND A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH WITH MORE RAIN ON TUE.

HIGHS SUN SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...JUST MID AND UPPER 30S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWEST TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. AGAIN...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS NEAR THE COAST
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. AS YOU MOVE BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR...
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 40S AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE TO GET THERE AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MORNING FOR THE NW TIER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
BALMY BY RECENT COMPARISONS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS HOLD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
N-NE ON TUESDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER VA IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY VEERING AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST. THE SATURATED COLUMN IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
TUES MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN FROM WEST
TO EAST. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER EARLY TUES TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN.

ESSENTIALLY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH LATE TUES BUT WINDS WILL BACK
A BIT AND MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH TUES NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS KEEP ALL PCP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF AREA. THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH
LEAVING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON
WED. ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST
ALLOWING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST SOME DEEPER COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPS FOR THURS
BEFORE HEIGHT RISES WILL KICK 850 TEMPS BACK UP FOR FRI INTO
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURS. GUIDANCE
SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S MOST DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON FRI AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP
WITH THIS FRONT BUT MAY SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING BEHIND
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. QUIET
CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS IN
THE MORNING WILL VEER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST NEEDED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL ZONES. COMBINATION OF
TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUN AS THE CENTER
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO E AND
SE AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SUN NIGHT. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S
DURING MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
THE WEST. S WINDS WILL PERSIST MON NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP
TO AROUND 15 KT SUN MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KT DURING MON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS MON NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WATER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT
SUN AFTERNOON AND TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD
RAPIDLY MON AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT MON NIGHT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MON AND MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY TUES WILL
WEAKEN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE W AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING TUES MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL VEER
AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF
SHORE FLOW TO KEEP HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WED MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SLIP BY
TO THE NORTH BUT OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM THE NW TO N BASICALLY REMAINING 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RJD/III/RGZ




000
FXUS62 KILM 140512
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1212 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AS MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA...COLD AIR
LOCKED IN ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM SUNDAY...TEMPS A LITTLE SLOW TO FALL DURING THE
EVENING DUE TO ONGOING MIXING...BUT IT IS STILL QUITE CHILLY OUT
THERE WITH READINGS NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST PLACES. HAVE
NUDGED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE...BUT OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...AS CLEAR AND
COLD CONDITIONS PAN-OUT THIS EVENING WITH MANY LOCALS ALREADY AT
SUB- FREEZING AT 02Z/9PM. WIND-CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER 20S
CURRENTLY...WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS LATER THIS EVENING...AND
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE
WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO
10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS
ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850 TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON
TOP OF THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING
JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW
HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER
COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
BLADEN...ROBESON...AND MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT WEDGES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEDGING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT WHAT THEY MAY BE DOING IN ERROR...IS
BRINGING THE TROUGH INLAND TOO QUICKLY AND DISLODGING THE WEDGE.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND ARW SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH MORE REALISTIC
DEPICTION. THUS EXPECT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO HANG ON LONGER
INLAND MON.

THIS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE ON
MON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. DRY AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO HANG ON
BELOW 800 FT SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO EVAPORATE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUN AND THEN THICKEN SUN NIGHT. CLOUDS SUN NIGHT ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST. COLDEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
TEMPS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS
WE APPROACH MON MORNING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT MON MORNING...WE EXPECT IT WILL BE
ALL RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EYF TO DILLON TO JUST
NORTH OF THE FLORENCE-DARLINGTON COUNTY LINE...WE WILL INCLUDE THE
RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE GROUND TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AFTER THIS ARCTIC BLAST. ACCRETION IN THIS AREA IS
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS STEADIER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE COLUMN AND ERODES THE LAST OF THE
WEDGE...MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WE EXPECT LIQUID RAIN THROUGHOUT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MON AND MON NIGHT MAY REACH UP TO AROUND A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH WITH MORE RAIN ON TUE.

HIGHS SUN SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...JUST MID AND UPPER 30S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWEST TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. AGAIN...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS NEAR THE COAST
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. AS YOU MOVE BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR...
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 40S AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE TO GET THERE AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MORNING FOR THE NW TIER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
BALMY BY RECENT COMPARISONS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS HOLD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
N-NE ON TUESDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER VA IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY VEERING AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST. THE SATURATED COLUMN IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
TUES MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN FROM WEST
TO EAST. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER EARLY TUES TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN.

ESSENTIALLY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH LATE TUES BUT WINDS WILL BACK
A BIT AND MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH TUES NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS KEEP ALL PCP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF AREA. THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH
LEAVING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON
WED. ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST
ALLOWING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST SOME DEEPER COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPS FOR THURS
BEFORE HEIGHT RISES WILL KICK 850 TEMPS BACK UP FOR FRI INTO
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURS. GUIDANCE
SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S MOST DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON FRI AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP
WITH THIS FRONT BUT MAY SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING BEHIND
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. QUIET
CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS IN
THE MORNING WILL VEER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST NEEDED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL ZONES. COMBINATION OF
TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUN AS THE CENTER
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO E AND
SE AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SUN NIGHT. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S
DURING MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
THE WEST. S WINDS WILL PERSIST MON NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP
TO AROUND 15 KT SUN MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KT DURING MON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS MON NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WATER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT
SUN AFTERNOON AND TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD
RAPIDLY MON AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT MON NIGHT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MON AND MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY TUES WILL
WEAKEN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE W AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING TUES MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL VEER
AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF
SHORE FLOW TO KEEP HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WED MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SLIP BY
TO THE NORTH BUT OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM THE NW TO N BASICALLY REMAINING 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RJD/III/RGZ





000
FXUS62 KILM 140155
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
855 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AS MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA...COLD AIR
LOCKED IN ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM SATURDAY...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST...AS CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS PAN-OUT THIS EVENING WITH
MANY LOCALS ALREADY AT SUB-FREEZING AT 02Z/9PM. WIND-CHILLS IN
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY...WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
LATER THIS EVENING...AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE
WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO
10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS
ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850 TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON
TOP OF THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING
JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW
HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER
COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
BLADEN...ROBESON...AND MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT WEDGES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEDGING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT WHAT THEY MAY BE DOING IN ERROR...IS
BRINGING THE TROUGH INLAND TOO QUICKLY AND DISLODGING THE WEDGE.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND ARW SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH MORE REALISTIC
DEPICTION. THUS EXPECT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO HANG ON LONGER
INLAND MON.

THIS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE ON
MON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. DRY AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO HANG ON
BELOW 800 FT SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO EVAPORATE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUN AND THEN THICKEN SUN NIGHT. CLOUDS SUN NIGHT ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST. COLDEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
TEMPS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS
WE APPROACH MON MORNING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT MON MORNING...WE EXPECT IT WILL BE
ALL RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EYF TO DILLON TO JUST
NORTH OF THE FLORENCE-DARLINGTON COUNTY LINE...WE WILL INCLUDE THE
RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE GROUND TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AFTER THIS ARCTIC BLAST. ACCRETION IN THIS AREA IS
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS STEADIER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE COLUMN AND ERODES THE LAST OF THE
WEDGE...MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WE EXPECT LIQUID RAIN THROUGHOUT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MON AND MON NIGHT MAY REACH UP TO AROUND A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH WITH MORE RAIN ON TUE.

HIGHS SUN SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...JUST MID AND UPPER 30S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWEST TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. AGAIN...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS NEAR THE COAST
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. AS YOU MOVE BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR...
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 40S AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE TO GET THERE AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MORNING FOR THE NW TIER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
BALMY BY RECENT COMPARISONS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS HOLD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
N-NE ON TUESDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER VA IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY VEERING AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST. THE SATURATED COLUMN IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
TUES MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN FROM WEST
TO EAST. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER EARLY TUES TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN.

ESSENTIALLY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH LATE TUES BUT WINDS WILL BACK
A BIT AND MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH TUES NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS KEEP ALL PCP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF AREA. THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH
LEAVING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON
WED. ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST
ALLOWING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST SOME DEEPER COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPS FOR THURS
BEFORE HEIGHT RISES WILL KICK 850 TEMPS BACK UP FOR FRI INTO
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURS. GUIDANCE
SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S MOST DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON FRI AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP
WITH THIS FRONT BUT MAY SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING BEHIND
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

QUIET CONDITIONS ON TOP FOR TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
GIVEN MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND INCREASED WINDS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT VFR
TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL VEER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AS SUB-ADVISORY BUT BUMPY OFFSHORE WIND CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL ZONES. COMBINATION OF
TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUN AS THE CENTER
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO E AND
SE AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SUN NIGHT. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S
DURING MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
THE WEST. S WINDS WILL PERSIST MON NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP
TO AROUND 15 KT SUN MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KT DURING MON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS MON NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WATER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT
SUN AFTERNOON AND TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD
RAPIDLY MON AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT MON NIGHT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MON AND MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY TUES WILL
WEAKEN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE W AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING TUES MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL VEER
AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF
SHORE FLOW TO KEEP HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WED MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SLIP BY
TO THE NORTH BUT OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM THE NW TO N BASICALLY REMAINING 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III/8
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 132333
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
633 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AS MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA...COLD AIR
LOCKED IN ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM SATURDAY...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST...AS CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS PAN-OUT THIS EVENING.
WIND-CHILLS IN THE 20S CURRENTLY...WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
LATE THIS EVENING...AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE
WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO
10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS
ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850 TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON
TOP OF THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING
JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW
HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER
COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
BLADEN...ROBESON...AND MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT WEDGES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEDGING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT WHAT THEY MAY BE DOING IN ERROR...IS
BRINGING THE TROUGH INLAND TOO QUICKLY AND DISLODGING THE WEDGE.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND ARW SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH MORE REALISTIC
DEPICTION. THUS EXPECT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO HANG ON LONGER
INLAND MON.

THIS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE ON
MON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. DRY AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO HANG ON
BELOW 800 FT SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO EVAPORATE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUN AND THEN THICKEN SUN NIGHT. CLOUDS SUN NIGHT ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST. COLDEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
TEMPS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS
WE APPROACH MON MORNING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT MON MORNING...WE EXPECT IT WILL BE
ALL RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EYF TO DILLON TO JUST
NORTH OF THE FLORENCE-DARLINGTON COUNTY LINE...WE WILL INCLUDE THE
RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE GROUND TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AFTER THIS ARCTIC BLAST. ACCRETION IN THIS AREA IS
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS STEADIER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE COLUMN AND ERODES THE LAST OF THE
WEDGE...MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WE EXPECT LIQUID RAIN THROUGHOUT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MON AND MON NIGHT MAY REACH UP TO AROUND A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH WITH MORE RAIN ON TUE.

HIGHS SUN SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...JUST MID AND UPPER 30S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWEST TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. AGAIN...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS NEAR THE COAST
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. AS YOU MOVE BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR...
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 40S AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE TO GET THERE AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MORNING FOR THE NW TIER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
BALMY BY RECENT COMPARISONS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS HOLD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
N-NE ON TUESDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER VA IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY VEERING AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST. THE SATURATED COLUMN IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
TUES MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN FROM WEST
TO EAST. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER EARLY TUES TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN.

ESSENTIALLY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH LATE TUES BUT WINDS WILL BACK
A BIT AND MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH TUES NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS KEEP ALL PCP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF AREA. THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH
LEAVING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON
WED. ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST
ALLOWING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST SOME DEEPER COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPS FOR THURS
BEFORE HEIGHT RISES WILL KICK 850 TEMPS BACK UP FOR FRI INTO
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURS. GUIDANCE
SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S MOST DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON FRI AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP
WITH THIS FRONT BUT MAY SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING BEHIND
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

QUIET CONDITIONS ON TOP FOR TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
GIVEN MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND INCREASED WINDS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT VFR
TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL VEER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AS SUB-ADVISORY BUT BUMPY OFFSHORE WIND CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL ZONES. COMBINATION OF
TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUN AS THE CENTER
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO E AND
SE AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SUN NIGHT. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S
DURING MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
THE WEST. S WINDS WILL PERSIST MON NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP
TO AROUND 15 KT SUN MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KT DURING MON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS MON NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WATER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT
SUN AFTERNOON AND TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD
RAPIDLY MON AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT MON NIGHT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MON AND MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY TUES WILL
WEAKEN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE W AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING TUES MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL VEER
AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF
SHORE FLOW TO KEEP HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WED MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SLIP BY
TO THE NORTH BUT OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM THE NW TO N BASICALLY REMAINING 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III/8
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 132333
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
633 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AS MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA...COLD AIR
LOCKED IN ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM SATURDAY...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST...AS CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS PAN-OUT THIS EVENING.
WIND-CHILLS IN THE 20S CURRENTLY...WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
LATE THIS EVENING...AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE
WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO
10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS
ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850 TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON
TOP OF THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING
JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW
HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER
COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
BLADEN...ROBESON...AND MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT WEDGES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEDGING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT WHAT THEY MAY BE DOING IN ERROR...IS
BRINGING THE TROUGH INLAND TOO QUICKLY AND DISLODGING THE WEDGE.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND ARW SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH MORE REALISTIC
DEPICTION. THUS EXPECT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO HANG ON LONGER
INLAND MON.

THIS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE ON
MON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. DRY AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO HANG ON
BELOW 800 FT SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO EVAPORATE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUN AND THEN THICKEN SUN NIGHT. CLOUDS SUN NIGHT ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST. COLDEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
TEMPS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS
WE APPROACH MON MORNING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT MON MORNING...WE EXPECT IT WILL BE
ALL RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EYF TO DILLON TO JUST
NORTH OF THE FLORENCE-DARLINGTON COUNTY LINE...WE WILL INCLUDE THE
RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE GROUND TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AFTER THIS ARCTIC BLAST. ACCRETION IN THIS AREA IS
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS STEADIER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE COLUMN AND ERODES THE LAST OF THE
WEDGE...MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WE EXPECT LIQUID RAIN THROUGHOUT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MON AND MON NIGHT MAY REACH UP TO AROUND A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH WITH MORE RAIN ON TUE.

HIGHS SUN SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...JUST MID AND UPPER 30S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWEST TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. AGAIN...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS NEAR THE COAST
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. AS YOU MOVE BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR...
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 40S AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE TO GET THERE AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MORNING FOR THE NW TIER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
BALMY BY RECENT COMPARISONS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS HOLD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
N-NE ON TUESDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER VA IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY VEERING AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST. THE SATURATED COLUMN IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
TUES MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN FROM WEST
TO EAST. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER EARLY TUES TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN.

ESSENTIALLY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH LATE TUES BUT WINDS WILL BACK
A BIT AND MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH TUES NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS KEEP ALL PCP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF AREA. THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH
LEAVING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON
WED. ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST
ALLOWING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST SOME DEEPER COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPS FOR THURS
BEFORE HEIGHT RISES WILL KICK 850 TEMPS BACK UP FOR FRI INTO
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURS. GUIDANCE
SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S MOST DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON FRI AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP
WITH THIS FRONT BUT MAY SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING BEHIND
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

QUIET CONDITIONS ON TOP FOR TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
GIVEN MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND INCREASED WINDS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT VFR
TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL VEER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AS SUB-ADVISORY BUT BUMPY OFFSHORE WIND CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL ZONES. COMBINATION OF
TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUN AS THE CENTER
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO E AND
SE AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SUN NIGHT. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S
DURING MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
THE WEST. S WINDS WILL PERSIST MON NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP
TO AROUND 15 KT SUN MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KT DURING MON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS MON NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WATER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT
SUN AFTERNOON AND TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD
RAPIDLY MON AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT MON NIGHT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MON AND MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY TUES WILL
WEAKEN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE W AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING TUES MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL VEER
AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF
SHORE FLOW TO KEEP HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WED MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SLIP BY
TO THE NORTH BUT OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM THE NW TO N BASICALLY REMAINING 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III/8
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 132333
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
633 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AS MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA...COLD AIR
LOCKED IN ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM SATURDAY...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST...AS CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS PAN-OUT THIS EVENING.
WIND-CHILLS IN THE 20S CURRENTLY...WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
LATE THIS EVENING...AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE
WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO
10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS
ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850 TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON
TOP OF THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING
JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW
HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER
COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
BLADEN...ROBESON...AND MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT WEDGES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEDGING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT WHAT THEY MAY BE DOING IN ERROR...IS
BRINGING THE TROUGH INLAND TOO QUICKLY AND DISLODGING THE WEDGE.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND ARW SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH MORE REALISTIC
DEPICTION. THUS EXPECT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO HANG ON LONGER
INLAND MON.

THIS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE ON
MON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. DRY AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO HANG ON
BELOW 800 FT SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO EVAPORATE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUN AND THEN THICKEN SUN NIGHT. CLOUDS SUN NIGHT ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST. COLDEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
TEMPS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS
WE APPROACH MON MORNING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT MON MORNING...WE EXPECT IT WILL BE
ALL RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EYF TO DILLON TO JUST
NORTH OF THE FLORENCE-DARLINGTON COUNTY LINE...WE WILL INCLUDE THE
RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE GROUND TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AFTER THIS ARCTIC BLAST. ACCRETION IN THIS AREA IS
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS STEADIER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE COLUMN AND ERODES THE LAST OF THE
WEDGE...MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WE EXPECT LIQUID RAIN THROUGHOUT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MON AND MON NIGHT MAY REACH UP TO AROUND A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH WITH MORE RAIN ON TUE.

HIGHS SUN SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...JUST MID AND UPPER 30S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWEST TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. AGAIN...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS NEAR THE COAST
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. AS YOU MOVE BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR...
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 40S AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE TO GET THERE AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MORNING FOR THE NW TIER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
BALMY BY RECENT COMPARISONS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS HOLD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
N-NE ON TUESDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER VA IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY VEERING AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST. THE SATURATED COLUMN IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
TUES MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN FROM WEST
TO EAST. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER EARLY TUES TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN.

ESSENTIALLY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH LATE TUES BUT WINDS WILL BACK
A BIT AND MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH TUES NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS KEEP ALL PCP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF AREA. THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH
LEAVING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON
WED. ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST
ALLOWING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST SOME DEEPER COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPS FOR THURS
BEFORE HEIGHT RISES WILL KICK 850 TEMPS BACK UP FOR FRI INTO
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURS. GUIDANCE
SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S MOST DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON FRI AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP
WITH THIS FRONT BUT MAY SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING BEHIND
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

QUIET CONDITIONS ON TOP FOR TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
GIVEN MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND INCREASED WINDS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT VFR
TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL VEER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AS SUB-ADVISORY BUT BUMPY OFFSHORE WIND CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL ZONES. COMBINATION OF
TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUN AS THE CENTER
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO E AND
SE AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SUN NIGHT. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S
DURING MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
THE WEST. S WINDS WILL PERSIST MON NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP
TO AROUND 15 KT SUN MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KT DURING MON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS MON NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WATER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT
SUN AFTERNOON AND TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD
RAPIDLY MON AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT MON NIGHT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MON AND MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY TUES WILL
WEAKEN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE W AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING TUES MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL VEER
AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF
SHORE FLOW TO KEEP HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WED MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SLIP BY
TO THE NORTH BUT OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM THE NW TO N BASICALLY REMAINING 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III/8
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 132320
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
620 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AS MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA...COLD AIR
LOCKED IN ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM SATURDAY...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST...AS CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS PAN-OUT THIS EVENING.
WIND-CHILLS IN THE 20S CURRENTLY...WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
LATE THIS EVENING...AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE
WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO
10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS
ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850 TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON
TOP OF THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING
JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW
HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER
COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
BLADEN...ROBESON...AND MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT WEDGES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEDGING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT WHAT THEY MAY BE DOING IN ERROR...IS
BRINGING THE TROUGH INLAND TOO QUICKLY AND DISLODGING THE WEDGE.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND ARW SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH MORE REALISTIC
DEPICTION. THUS EXPECT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO HANG ON LONGER
INLAND MON.

THIS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE ON
MON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. DRY AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO HANG ON
BELOW 800 FT SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO EVAPORATE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUN AND THEN THICKEN SUN NIGHT. CLOUDS SUN NIGHT ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST. COLDEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
TEMPS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS
WE APPROACH MON MORNING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT MON MORNING...WE EXPECT IT WILL BE
ALL RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EYF TO DILLON TO JUST
NORTH OF THE FLORENCE-DARLINGTON COUNTY LINE...WE WILL INCLUDE THE
RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE GROUND TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AFTER THIS ARCTIC BLAST. ACCRETION IN THIS AREA IS
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS STEADIER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE COLUMN AND ERODES THE LAST OF THE
WEDGE...MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WE EXPECT LIQUID RAIN THROUGHOUT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MON AND MON NIGHT MAY REACH UP TO AROUND A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH WITH MORE RAIN ON TUE.

HIGHS SUN SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...JUST MID AND UPPER 30S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWEST TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. AGAIN...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS NEAR THE COAST
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. AS YOU MOVE BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR...
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 40S AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE TO GET THERE AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MORNING FOR THE NW TIER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
BALMY BY RECENT COMPARISONS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS HOLD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
N-NE ON TUESDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER VA IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY VEERING AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST. THE SATURATED COLUMN IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
TUES MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN FROM WEST
TO EAST. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER EARLY TUES TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN.

ESSENTIALLY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH LATE TUES BUT WINDS WILL BACK
A BIT AND MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH TUES NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS KEEP ALL PCP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF AREA. THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH
LEAVING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON
WED. ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST
ALLOWING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST SOME DEEPER COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPS FOR THURS
BEFORE HEIGHT RISES WILL KICK 850 TEMPS BACK UP FOR FRI INTO
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURS. GUIDANCE
SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S MOST DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON FRI AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP
WITH THIS FRONT BUT MAY SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING BEHIND
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FAIRLY LIGHT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AS SUB-ADVISORY BUT BUMPY OFFSHORE WIND CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL ZONES. COMBINATION OF
TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUN AS THE CENTER
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO E AND
SE AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SUN NIGHT. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S
DURING MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
THE WEST. S WINDS WILL PERSIST MON NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP
TO AROUND 15 KT SUN MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KT DURING MON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS MON NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WATER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT
SUN AFTERNOON AND TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD
RAPIDLY MON AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT MON NIGHT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MON AND MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY TUES WILL
WEAKEN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE W AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING TUES MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL VEER
AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF
SHORE FLOW TO KEEP HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WED MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SLIP BY
TO THE NORTH BUT OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM THE NW TO N BASICALLY REMAINING 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...III/8
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 132320
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
620 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AS MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA...COLD AIR
LOCKED IN ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM SATURDAY...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST...AS CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS PAN-OUT THIS EVENING.
WIND-CHILLS IN THE 20S CURRENTLY...WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
LATE THIS EVENING...AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE
WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO
10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS
ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850 TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON
TOP OF THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING
JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW
HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER
COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
BLADEN...ROBESON...AND MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT WEDGES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEDGING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT WHAT THEY MAY BE DOING IN ERROR...IS
BRINGING THE TROUGH INLAND TOO QUICKLY AND DISLODGING THE WEDGE.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND ARW SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH MORE REALISTIC
DEPICTION. THUS EXPECT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO HANG ON LONGER
INLAND MON.

THIS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE ON
MON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. DRY AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO HANG ON
BELOW 800 FT SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO EVAPORATE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUN AND THEN THICKEN SUN NIGHT. CLOUDS SUN NIGHT ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST. COLDEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
TEMPS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS
WE APPROACH MON MORNING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT MON MORNING...WE EXPECT IT WILL BE
ALL RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EYF TO DILLON TO JUST
NORTH OF THE FLORENCE-DARLINGTON COUNTY LINE...WE WILL INCLUDE THE
RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE GROUND TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AFTER THIS ARCTIC BLAST. ACCRETION IN THIS AREA IS
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS STEADIER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE COLUMN AND ERODES THE LAST OF THE
WEDGE...MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WE EXPECT LIQUID RAIN THROUGHOUT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MON AND MON NIGHT MAY REACH UP TO AROUND A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH WITH MORE RAIN ON TUE.

HIGHS SUN SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...JUST MID AND UPPER 30S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWEST TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. AGAIN...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS NEAR THE COAST
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. AS YOU MOVE BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR...
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 40S AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE TO GET THERE AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MORNING FOR THE NW TIER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
BALMY BY RECENT COMPARISONS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS HOLD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
N-NE ON TUESDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER VA IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY VEERING AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST. THE SATURATED COLUMN IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
TUES MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN FROM WEST
TO EAST. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER EARLY TUES TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN.

ESSENTIALLY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH LATE TUES BUT WINDS WILL BACK
A BIT AND MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH TUES NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS KEEP ALL PCP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF AREA. THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH
LEAVING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON
WED. ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST
ALLOWING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST SOME DEEPER COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPS FOR THURS
BEFORE HEIGHT RISES WILL KICK 850 TEMPS BACK UP FOR FRI INTO
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURS. GUIDANCE
SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S MOST DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON FRI AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP
WITH THIS FRONT BUT MAY SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING BEHIND
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FAIRLY LIGHT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AS SUB-ADVISORY BUT BUMPY OFFSHORE WIND CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL ZONES. COMBINATION OF
TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUN AS THE CENTER
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO E AND
SE AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SUN NIGHT. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S
DURING MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
THE WEST. S WINDS WILL PERSIST MON NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP
TO AROUND 15 KT SUN MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KT DURING MON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS MON NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WATER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT
SUN AFTERNOON AND TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD
RAPIDLY MON AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT MON NIGHT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MON AND MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY TUES WILL
WEAKEN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE W AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING TUES MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL VEER
AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF
SHORE FLOW TO KEEP HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WED MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SLIP BY
TO THE NORTH BUT OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM THE NW TO N BASICALLY REMAINING 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...III/8
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 132320
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
620 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AS MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA...COLD AIR
LOCKED IN ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM SATURDAY...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST...AS CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS PAN-OUT THIS EVENING.
WIND-CHILLS IN THE 20S CURRENTLY...WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
LATE THIS EVENING...AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE
WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO
10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS
ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850 TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON
TOP OF THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING
JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW
HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER
COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
BLADEN...ROBESON...AND MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT WEDGES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEDGING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT WHAT THEY MAY BE DOING IN ERROR...IS
BRINGING THE TROUGH INLAND TOO QUICKLY AND DISLODGING THE WEDGE.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND ARW SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH MORE REALISTIC
DEPICTION. THUS EXPECT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO HANG ON LONGER
INLAND MON.

THIS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE ON
MON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. DRY AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO HANG ON
BELOW 800 FT SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO EVAPORATE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUN AND THEN THICKEN SUN NIGHT. CLOUDS SUN NIGHT ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST. COLDEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
TEMPS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS
WE APPROACH MON MORNING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT MON MORNING...WE EXPECT IT WILL BE
ALL RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EYF TO DILLON TO JUST
NORTH OF THE FLORENCE-DARLINGTON COUNTY LINE...WE WILL INCLUDE THE
RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE GROUND TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AFTER THIS ARCTIC BLAST. ACCRETION IN THIS AREA IS
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS STEADIER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE COLUMN AND ERODES THE LAST OF THE
WEDGE...MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WE EXPECT LIQUID RAIN THROUGHOUT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MON AND MON NIGHT MAY REACH UP TO AROUND A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH WITH MORE RAIN ON TUE.

HIGHS SUN SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...JUST MID AND UPPER 30S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWEST TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. AGAIN...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS NEAR THE COAST
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. AS YOU MOVE BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR...
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 40S AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE TO GET THERE AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MORNING FOR THE NW TIER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
BALMY BY RECENT COMPARISONS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS HOLD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
N-NE ON TUESDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER VA IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY VEERING AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST. THE SATURATED COLUMN IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
TUES MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN FROM WEST
TO EAST. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER EARLY TUES TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN.

ESSENTIALLY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH LATE TUES BUT WINDS WILL BACK
A BIT AND MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH TUES NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS KEEP ALL PCP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF AREA. THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH
LEAVING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON
WED. ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST
ALLOWING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST SOME DEEPER COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPS FOR THURS
BEFORE HEIGHT RISES WILL KICK 850 TEMPS BACK UP FOR FRI INTO
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURS. GUIDANCE
SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S MOST DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON FRI AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP
WITH THIS FRONT BUT MAY SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING BEHIND
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FAIRLY LIGHT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AS SUB-ADVISORY BUT BUMPY OFFSHORE WIND CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL ZONES. COMBINATION OF
TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUN AS THE CENTER
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO E AND
SE AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SUN NIGHT. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S
DURING MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
THE WEST. S WINDS WILL PERSIST MON NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP
TO AROUND 15 KT SUN MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KT DURING MON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS MON NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WATER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT
SUN AFTERNOON AND TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD
RAPIDLY MON AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT MON NIGHT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MON AND MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY TUES WILL
WEAKEN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE W AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING TUES MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL VEER
AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF
SHORE FLOW TO KEEP HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WED MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SLIP BY
TO THE NORTH BUT OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM THE NW TO N BASICALLY REMAINING 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...III/8
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 132042
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
342 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AS MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA...COLD AIR
LOCKED IN ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE
NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN
THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850
TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS
DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON TOP OF THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST
FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF
5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BLADEN...ROBESON...AND
MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT WEDGES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEDGING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT WHAT THEY MAY BE DOING IN ERROR...IS
BRINGING THE TROUGH INLAND TOO QUICKLY AND DISLODGING THE WEDGE.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND ARW SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH MORE REALISTIC
DEPICTION. THUS EXPECT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO HANG ON LONGER
INLAND MON.

THIS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE ON
MON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. DRY AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO HANG ON
BELOW 800 FT SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO EVAPORATE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUN AND THEN THICKEN SUN NIGHT. CLOUDS SUN NIGHT ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST. COLDEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
TEMPS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS
WE APPROACH MON MORNING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT MON MORNING...WE EXPECT IT WILL BE
ALL RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EYF TO DILLON TO JUST
NORTH OF THE FLORENCE-DARLINGTON COUNTY LINE...WE WILL INCLUDE THE
RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE GROUND TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AFTER THIS ARCTIC BLAST. ACCRETION IN THIS AREA IS
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS STEADIER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE COLUMN AND ERODES THE LAST OF THE
WEDGE...MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WE EXPECT LIQUID RAIN THROUGHOUT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MON AND MON NIGHT MAY REACH UP TO AROUND A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH WITH MORE RAIN ON TUE.

HIGHS SUN SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...JUST MID AND UPPER 30S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWEST TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. AGAIN...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS NEAR THE COAST
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. AS YOU MOVE BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR...
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 40S AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE TO GET THERE AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MORNING FOR THE NW TIER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
BALMY BY RECENT COMPARISONS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS HOLD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
N-NE ON TUESDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER VA IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY VEERING AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST. THE SATURATED COLUMN IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
TUES MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN FROM WEST
TO EAST. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER EARLY TUES TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN.

ESSENTIALLY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH LATE TUES BUT WINDS WILL BACK
A BIT AND MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH TUES NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS KEEP ALL PCP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF AREA. THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH
LEAVING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON
WED. ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST
ALLOWING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST SOME DEEPER COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPS FOR THURS
BEFORE HEIGHT RISES WILL KICK 850 TEMPS BACK UP FOR FRI INTO
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURS. GUIDANCE
SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S MOST DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON FRI AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP
WITH THIS FRONT BUT MAY SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING BEHIND
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FAIRLY LIGHT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY
MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT
WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL
ZONES. COMBINATION OF TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES
BUILDING IN AND MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY
HEADLINE CRITERIA WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUN AS THE CENTER
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO E AND
SE AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SUN NIGHT. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S
DURING MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
THE WEST. S WINDS WILL PERSIST MON NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP
TO AROUND 15 KT SUN MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KT DURING MON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS MON NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WATER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT
SUN AFTERNOON AND TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD
RAPIDLY MON AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT MON NIGHT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MON AND MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY TUES WILL
WEAKEN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE W AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING TUES MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL VEER
AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF
SHORE FLOW TO KEEP HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WED MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SLIP BY
TO THE NORTH BUT OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM THE NW TO N BASICALLY REMAINING 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 132042
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
342 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AS MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA...COLD AIR
LOCKED IN ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE
NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN
THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850
TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS
DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON TOP OF THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST
FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF
5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BLADEN...ROBESON...AND
MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT WEDGES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEDGING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT WHAT THEY MAY BE DOING IN ERROR...IS
BRINGING THE TROUGH INLAND TOO QUICKLY AND DISLODGING THE WEDGE.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND ARW SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH MORE REALISTIC
DEPICTION. THUS EXPECT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO HANG ON LONGER
INLAND MON.

THIS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE ON
MON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. DRY AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO HANG ON
BELOW 800 FT SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO EVAPORATE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUN AND THEN THICKEN SUN NIGHT. CLOUDS SUN NIGHT ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST. COLDEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
TEMPS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS
WE APPROACH MON MORNING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT MON MORNING...WE EXPECT IT WILL BE
ALL RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EYF TO DILLON TO JUST
NORTH OF THE FLORENCE-DARLINGTON COUNTY LINE...WE WILL INCLUDE THE
RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE GROUND TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AFTER THIS ARCTIC BLAST. ACCRETION IN THIS AREA IS
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS STEADIER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE COLUMN AND ERODES THE LAST OF THE
WEDGE...MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WE EXPECT LIQUID RAIN THROUGHOUT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MON AND MON NIGHT MAY REACH UP TO AROUND A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH WITH MORE RAIN ON TUE.

HIGHS SUN SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...JUST MID AND UPPER 30S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWEST TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. AGAIN...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS NEAR THE COAST
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. AS YOU MOVE BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR...
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 40S AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE TO GET THERE AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MORNING FOR THE NW TIER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
BALMY BY RECENT COMPARISONS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS HOLD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
N-NE ON TUESDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER VA IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY VEERING AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST. THE SATURATED COLUMN IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
TUES MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN FROM WEST
TO EAST. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER EARLY TUES TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN.

ESSENTIALLY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH LATE TUES BUT WINDS WILL BACK
A BIT AND MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH TUES NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS KEEP ALL PCP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF AREA. THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH
LEAVING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON
WED. ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST
ALLOWING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST SOME DEEPER COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPS FOR THURS
BEFORE HEIGHT RISES WILL KICK 850 TEMPS BACK UP FOR FRI INTO
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURS. GUIDANCE
SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S MOST DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON FRI AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP
WITH THIS FRONT BUT MAY SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING BEHIND
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FAIRLY LIGHT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY
MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT
WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL
ZONES. COMBINATION OF TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES
BUILDING IN AND MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY
HEADLINE CRITERIA WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUN AS THE CENTER
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO E AND
SE AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SUN NIGHT. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S
DURING MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
THE WEST. S WINDS WILL PERSIST MON NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP
TO AROUND 15 KT SUN MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KT DURING MON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS MON NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WATER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT
SUN AFTERNOON AND TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD
RAPIDLY MON AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT MON NIGHT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MON AND MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY TUES WILL
WEAKEN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE W AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING TUES MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL VEER
AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF
SHORE FLOW TO KEEP HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WED MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SLIP BY
TO THE NORTH BUT OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM THE NW TO N BASICALLY REMAINING 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 132042
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
342 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AS MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA...COLD AIR
LOCKED IN ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE
NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN
THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850
TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS
DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON TOP OF THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST
FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF
5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BLADEN...ROBESON...AND
MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT WEDGES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEDGING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT WHAT THEY MAY BE DOING IN ERROR...IS
BRINGING THE TROUGH INLAND TOO QUICKLY AND DISLODGING THE WEDGE.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND ARW SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH MORE REALISTIC
DEPICTION. THUS EXPECT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO HANG ON LONGER
INLAND MON.

THIS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE ON
MON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. DRY AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO HANG ON
BELOW 800 FT SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO EVAPORATE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUN AND THEN THICKEN SUN NIGHT. CLOUDS SUN NIGHT ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST. COLDEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
TEMPS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS
WE APPROACH MON MORNING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT MON MORNING...WE EXPECT IT WILL BE
ALL RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EYF TO DILLON TO JUST
NORTH OF THE FLORENCE-DARLINGTON COUNTY LINE...WE WILL INCLUDE THE
RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE GROUND TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AFTER THIS ARCTIC BLAST. ACCRETION IN THIS AREA IS
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS STEADIER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE COLUMN AND ERODES THE LAST OF THE
WEDGE...MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WE EXPECT LIQUID RAIN THROUGHOUT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MON AND MON NIGHT MAY REACH UP TO AROUND A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH WITH MORE RAIN ON TUE.

HIGHS SUN SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...JUST MID AND UPPER 30S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWEST TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. AGAIN...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS NEAR THE COAST
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. AS YOU MOVE BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR...
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 40S AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE TO GET THERE AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MORNING FOR THE NW TIER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
BALMY BY RECENT COMPARISONS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS HOLD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
N-NE ON TUESDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER VA IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY VEERING AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST. THE SATURATED COLUMN IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
TUES MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN FROM WEST
TO EAST. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER EARLY TUES TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN.

ESSENTIALLY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH LATE TUES BUT WINDS WILL BACK
A BIT AND MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH TUES NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS KEEP ALL PCP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF AREA. THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH
LEAVING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON
WED. ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST
ALLOWING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST SOME DEEPER COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPS FOR THURS
BEFORE HEIGHT RISES WILL KICK 850 TEMPS BACK UP FOR FRI INTO
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURS. GUIDANCE
SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S MOST DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON FRI AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP
WITH THIS FRONT BUT MAY SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING BEHIND
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FAIRLY LIGHT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY
MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT
WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL
ZONES. COMBINATION OF TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES
BUILDING IN AND MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY
HEADLINE CRITERIA WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUN AS THE CENTER
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO E AND
SE AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SUN NIGHT. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S
DURING MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
THE WEST. S WINDS WILL PERSIST MON NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP
TO AROUND 15 KT SUN MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KT DURING MON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS MON NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WATER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT
SUN AFTERNOON AND TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD
RAPIDLY MON AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT MON NIGHT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MON AND MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY TUES WILL
WEAKEN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE W AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING TUES MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL VEER
AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF
SHORE FLOW TO KEEP HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WED MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SLIP BY
TO THE NORTH BUT OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM THE NW TO N BASICALLY REMAINING 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 131851
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
151 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE
NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN
THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850
TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS
DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON TOP OF THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST
FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF
5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BLADEN...ROBESON...AND
MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH
THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR
TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR
MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE
MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH
OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW
APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER
AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED
IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO
BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SEASONABLE
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND FAIRLY LIGHT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY
MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT
WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL
ZONES. COMBINATION OF TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES
BUILDING IN AND MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY
HEADLINE CRITERIA WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE
TO SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING
NEAR SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
AND TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS
DECREASE. SO WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN
SIZE THE LARGER WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT
OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND
ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN
ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT
LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT
OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 131851
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
151 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE
NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN
THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850
TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS
DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON TOP OF THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST
FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF
5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BLADEN...ROBESON...AND
MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH
THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR
TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR
MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE
MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH
OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW
APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER
AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED
IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO
BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SEASONABLE
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND FAIRLY LIGHT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY
MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT
WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL
ZONES. COMBINATION OF TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES
BUILDING IN AND MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY
HEADLINE CRITERIA WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE
TO SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING
NEAR SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
AND TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS
DECREASE. SO WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN
SIZE THE LARGER WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT
OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND
ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN
ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT
LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT
OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 131851
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
151 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE
NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN
THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850
TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS
DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON TOP OF THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST
FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF
5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BLADEN...ROBESON...AND
MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH
THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR
TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR
MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE
MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH
OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW
APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER
AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED
IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO
BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SEASONABLE
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND FAIRLY LIGHT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY
MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT
WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL
ZONES. COMBINATION OF TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES
BUILDING IN AND MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY
HEADLINE CRITERIA WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE
TO SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING
NEAR SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
AND TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS
DECREASE. SO WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN
SIZE THE LARGER WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT
OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND
ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN
ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT
LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT
OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 131643
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1141 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS VERY DRY AIR WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH NEGATIVE NUMBERS JUST
STARTING TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO NC. SKIES WILL REMAIN FREE OF
CLOUDS TODAY BUT EVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT
ON THE ARCTIC AIR. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION IS FROM 3 AM SATURDAY:
FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
CONTINUED MIXING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS
THEY THEORETICALLY COULD. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS MOST PLACES...A BIT LOWER IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WE MAY SEE A
FEW RECORD LOWS BROKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE A STRETCH. FOR EXAMPLE:

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/18F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/19F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/20F FORECAST

WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT AT
THIS TIME ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH
THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR
TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR
MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE
MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH
OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW
APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER
AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED
IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO
BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SEASONABLE
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND FAIRLY LIGHT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BUT THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION HAS NOT YET REACHED
THE WATERS. STILL THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW
PEAKING RIGHT AROUND 25 KT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE DESPITE
WINDS OF 25 KT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE
TO SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING
NEAR SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
AND TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS
DECREASE. SO WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN
SIZE THE LARGER WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT
OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND
ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN
ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT
LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT
OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43





000
FXUS62 KILM 131643
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1141 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS VERY DRY AIR WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH NEGATIVE NUMBERS JUST
STARTING TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO NC. SKIES WILL REMAIN FREE OF
CLOUDS TODAY BUT EVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT
ON THE ARCTIC AIR. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION IS FROM 3 AM SATURDAY:
FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
CONTINUED MIXING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS
THEY THEORETICALLY COULD. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS MOST PLACES...A BIT LOWER IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WE MAY SEE A
FEW RECORD LOWS BROKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE A STRETCH. FOR EXAMPLE:

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/18F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/19F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/20F FORECAST

WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT AT
THIS TIME ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH
THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR
TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR
MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE
MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH
OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW
APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER
AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED
IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO
BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SEASONABLE
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND FAIRLY LIGHT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BUT THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION HAS NOT YET REACHED
THE WATERS. STILL THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW
PEAKING RIGHT AROUND 25 KT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE DESPITE
WINDS OF 25 KT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE
TO SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING
NEAR SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
AND TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS
DECREASE. SO WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN
SIZE THE LARGER WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT
OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND
ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN
ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT
LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT
OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 131501
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1001 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS VERY DRY AIR WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH NEGATIVE NUMBERS JUST
STARTING TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO NC. SKIES WILL REMAIN FREE OF
CLOUDS TODAY BUT EVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT
ON THE ARCTIC AIR. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION IS FROM 3 AM SATURDAY:
FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
CONTINUED MIXING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS
THEY THEORETICALLY COULD. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS MOST PLACES...A BIT LOWER IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WE MAY SEE A
FEW RECORD LOWS BROKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE A STRETCH. FOR EXAMPLE:

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/18F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/19F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/20F FORECAST

WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT AT
THIS TIME ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH
THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR
TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR
MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE
MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH
OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW
APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER
AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED
IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO
BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SEASONABLE
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDS UP AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME TRANSITORY
CIRRUS...SKIES WILL BE CLOUD FREE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BUT THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION HAS NOT YET REACHED
THE WATERS. STILL THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW
PEAKING RIGHT AROUND 25 KT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE DESPITE
WINDS OF 25 KT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE
TO SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING
NEAR SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
AND TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS
DECREASE. SO WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN
SIZE THE LARGER WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT
OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND
ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN
ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT
LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT
OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 131111
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
611 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN TODAY WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WILL BRING US SUNNY SKIES TODAY...BUT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD SURGE HAVE GONE A BIT BELOW MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR TODAY...GIVING US HIGHS OF RIGHT AROUND 40...GIVE OR
TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...FOR MOST PLACES. THIS IS NEARLY 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
CONTINUED MIXING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS
THEY THEORETICALLY COULD. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS MOST PLACES...A BIT LOWER IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WE MAY SEE A
FEW RECORD LOWS BROKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE A STRETCH. FOR EXAMPLE:

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/18F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/19F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/20F FORECAST

WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT AT
THIS TIME ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH
THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR
TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR
MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE
MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH
OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW
APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER
AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED
IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO
BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SEASONABLE
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDS UP AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME TRANSITORY
CIRRUS...SKIES WILL BE CLOUD FREE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AS A STRONG SURGE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A VERY COLD AND DRY
ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS NWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS. SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES
CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE
TO SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING
NEAR SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
AND TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS
DECREASE. SO WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN
SIZE THE LARGER WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT
OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND
ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN
ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT
LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT
OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 131111
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
611 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN TODAY WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WILL BRING US SUNNY SKIES TODAY...BUT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD SURGE HAVE GONE A BIT BELOW MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR TODAY...GIVING US HIGHS OF RIGHT AROUND 40...GIVE OR
TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...FOR MOST PLACES. THIS IS NEARLY 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
CONTINUED MIXING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS
THEY THEORETICALLY COULD. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS MOST PLACES...A BIT LOWER IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WE MAY SEE A
FEW RECORD LOWS BROKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE A STRETCH. FOR EXAMPLE:

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/18F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/19F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/20F FORECAST

WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT AT
THIS TIME ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH
THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR
TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR
MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE
MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH
OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW
APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER
AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED
IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO
BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SEASONABLE
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDS UP AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME TRANSITORY
CIRRUS...SKIES WILL BE CLOUD FREE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AS A STRONG SURGE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A VERY COLD AND DRY
ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS NWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS. SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES
CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE
TO SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING
NEAR SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
AND TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS
DECREASE. SO WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN
SIZE THE LARGER WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT
OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND
ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN
ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT
LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT
OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/MBB





000
FXUS62 KILM 131111
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
611 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN TODAY WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WILL BRING US SUNNY SKIES TODAY...BUT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD SURGE HAVE GONE A BIT BELOW MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR TODAY...GIVING US HIGHS OF RIGHT AROUND 40...GIVE OR
TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...FOR MOST PLACES. THIS IS NEARLY 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
CONTINUED MIXING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS
THEY THEORETICALLY COULD. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS MOST PLACES...A BIT LOWER IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WE MAY SEE A
FEW RECORD LOWS BROKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE A STRETCH. FOR EXAMPLE:

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/18F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/19F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/20F FORECAST

WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT AT
THIS TIME ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH
THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR
TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR
MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE
MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH
OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW
APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER
AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED
IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO
BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SEASONABLE
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDS UP AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME TRANSITORY
CIRRUS...SKIES WILL BE CLOUD FREE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AS A STRONG SURGE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A VERY COLD AND DRY
ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS NWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS. SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES
CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE
TO SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING
NEAR SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
AND TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS
DECREASE. SO WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN
SIZE THE LARGER WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT
OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND
ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN
ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT
LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT
OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/MBB





000
FXUS62 KILM 131100
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
600 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN
TODAY WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BRING US SUNNY SKIES
TODAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN COLD
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD SURGE HAVE GONE A
BIT BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TODAY...GIVING US HIGHS OF RIGHT
AROUND 40...GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...FOR MOST PLACES.
THIS IS NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
CONTINUED MIXING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS
THEY THEORETICALLY COULD. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS MOST PLACES...A BIT LOWER IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WE MAY SEE A
FEW RECORD LOWS BROKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE A STRETCH. FOR EXAMPLE:

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/18F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/19F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/20F FORECAST

WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT AT
THIS TIME ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH
THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR
TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR
MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE
MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH
OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW
APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT
SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE
DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A
RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A
RETURN OF SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDS UP AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME TRANSITORY
CIRRUS...SKIES WILL BE CLOUD FREE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG SURGE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS NWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KTS. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING NEAR
SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS DECREASE. SO
WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN SIZE THE LARGER
WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE
NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...

PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND
A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ107.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43





000
FXUS62 KILM 131100
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
600 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN
TODAY WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BRING US SUNNY SKIES
TODAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN COLD
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD SURGE HAVE GONE A
BIT BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TODAY...GIVING US HIGHS OF RIGHT
AROUND 40...GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...FOR MOST PLACES.
THIS IS NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
CONTINUED MIXING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS
THEY THEORETICALLY COULD. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS MOST PLACES...A BIT LOWER IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WE MAY SEE A
FEW RECORD LOWS BROKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE A STRETCH. FOR EXAMPLE:

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/18F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/19F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/20F FORECAST

WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT AT
THIS TIME ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH
THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR
TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR
MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE
MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH
OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW
APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT
SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE
DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A
RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A
RETURN OF SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDS UP AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME TRANSITORY
CIRRUS...SKIES WILL BE CLOUD FREE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG SURGE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS NWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KTS. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING NEAR
SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS DECREASE. SO
WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN SIZE THE LARGER
WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE
NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...

PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND
A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ107.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43





000
FXUS62 KILM 130723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
223 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN
TODAY WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BRING US SUNNY SKIES
TODAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN COLD
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD SURGE HAVE GONE A
BIT BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TODAY...GIVING US HIGHS OF RIGHT
AROUND 40...GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...FOR MOST PLACES.
THIS IS NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
CONTINUED MIXING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS
THEY THEORETICALLY COULD. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS MOST PLACES...A BIT LOWER IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WE MAY SEE A
FEW RECORD LOWS BROKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE A STRETCH. FOR EXAMPLE:

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/18F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/19F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/20F FORECAST

WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT AT
THIS TIME ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH
THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR
TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR
MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE
MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH
OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW
APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT
SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE
DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A
RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A
RETURN OF SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TEETERING NEAR THRESHOLD...AREAS
NORTH AND WEST ARE OBSERVING FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING ANY
FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO FOR MVFR
IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. WILL SEE GUSTS
SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG SURGE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS NWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KTS. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING NEAR
SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS DECREASE. SO
WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN SIZE THE LARGER
WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE
NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...

PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND
A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ107.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 130723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
223 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN
TODAY WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BRING US SUNNY SKIES
TODAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN COLD
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD SURGE HAVE GONE A
BIT BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TODAY...GIVING US HIGHS OF RIGHT
AROUND 40...GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...FOR MOST PLACES.
THIS IS NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
CONTINUED MIXING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS
THEY THEORETICALLY COULD. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS MOST PLACES...A BIT LOWER IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WE MAY SEE A
FEW RECORD LOWS BROKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE A STRETCH. FOR EXAMPLE:

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/18F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/19F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/20F FORECAST

WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT AT
THIS TIME ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH
THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR
TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR
MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE
MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH
OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW
APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT
SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE
DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A
RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A
RETURN OF SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TEETERING NEAR THRESHOLD...AREAS
NORTH AND WEST ARE OBSERVING FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING ANY
FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO FOR MVFR
IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. WILL SEE GUSTS
SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG SURGE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS NWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KTS. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING NEAR
SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS DECREASE. SO
WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN SIZE THE LARGER
WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE
NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...

PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND
A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ107.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 130723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
223 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN
TODAY WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BRING US SUNNY SKIES
TODAY...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN COLD
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD SURGE HAVE GONE A
BIT BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TODAY...GIVING US HIGHS OF RIGHT
AROUND 40...GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...FOR MOST PLACES.
THIS IS NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
CONTINUED MIXING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS
THEY THEORETICALLY COULD. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS MOST PLACES...A BIT LOWER IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WE MAY SEE A
FEW RECORD LOWS BROKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE A STRETCH. FOR EXAMPLE:

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/18F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/19F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/20F FORECAST

WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT AT
THIS TIME ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH
THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR
TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR
MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE
MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH
OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW
APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT
SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE
DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A
RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A
RETURN OF SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TEETERING NEAR THRESHOLD...AREAS
NORTH AND WEST ARE OBSERVING FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING ANY
FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO FOR MVFR
IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. WILL SEE GUSTS
SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG SURGE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS NWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KTS. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO
SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING NEAR
SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS DECREASE. SO
WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN SIZE THE LARGER
WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE
NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...

PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND
A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ107.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 130521
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1221 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE OVERNIGHT
AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP
WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NORMAL VALUES
AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD RAIN
CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS NOW 250+ MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND
IS SURROUNDED BY AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK IS COUNTING OVER 800 STRIKES PER 15
MINUTES OFFSHORE! THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ACCELERATE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CHARLOTTE TO JUST
WEST OF AUGUSTA GA WILL RACE EASTWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...REACHING THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WE`VE
ALREADY LOST THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS THINNING ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AS WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP DOWN TO 925 MB.

CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT...WITH PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. ONCE
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUNCH IN ALONG WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ERASE ANY RADIATIONAL INVERSION
THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND COUNTERINTUITIVELY
SHOULD CREATE A ~5 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. COLD ADVECTION
WILL THEN DROP LOWS BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AGAIN BY
DAYBREAK. THIS MAY SEEM EXCESSIVELY WARM GIVEN THE FACT THAT 850
MB TEMPS WILL BE PLUNGING BELOW -8C BY DAYBREAK...BUT GUSTY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. AS THIS ARCTIC HIGH IS BUILDING IN...IT WILL BRING
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND
MINUS 10 DEG C AND AS COLD AS MINUS 10 DEG C. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH TEMPS ON SAT...EVEN WITH SUNSHINE...WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK AND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...IT WILL FALL SHORT OF 40. IT WILL FEEL NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ALL DAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...ONLY IN THE 20S.

AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION...THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP. WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM MAXIMIZING. HOWEVER... EVEN WITH
THAT...WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THIS WILL
BE A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD AS THE WIND CONTRIBUTION WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. IT IS LIKELY A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5 DEG SET IN 1899/18

FLORENCE: 15 DEG SET IN 1968/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 DEG SET IN 1955/19

THEN ON SUN...NOT MUCH OF A WARMUP. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER OUT OF THE 30S AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPS EXCEED 32 DEG.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT
AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR ICE PELLETS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MON. WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS RISK. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
INSULATE THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS
FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 20S SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE E-NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES
MORNING. CENTER OF LOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA
KEEPING WARM AIR IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SW-W THROUGH TUES AS SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT IN PLACE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. THEREFORE EXPECT
CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND PCP TO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. QPF MAY BE UPWARDS OF
AN INCH BY TUES MORNING.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY ON TUES...ONE MORE MINOR SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS
AND LOW END PCP AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OVERNIGHT TUES
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WED THROUGH
FRI.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SHARP RISE IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 850 TEMPS BELOW 0C WILL WARM TO 8C BRINGING
TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL ON MONDAY AND AT OR ABOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE. ONCE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE COAST EARLY
THURS...MAY SEE A BRIEF COOLING BEFORE H5 HEIGHTS RISE LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY FRI ALLOWING FOR WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP BY FRI. THEREFORE MAY SEE A LITTLE DIP IN TEMPS ON THURS
BUT OVERALL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TEETERING NEAR THRESHOLD...AREAS
NORTH AND WEST ARE OBSERVING FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING ANY
FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO FOR MVFR
IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. WILL SEE GUSTS
SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND WILL
MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE NC FOOTHILLS INTO THE SC MOUNTAINS WILL RACE
EASTWARD...REACHING THE BEACHES BETWEEN 2-4 AM. NORTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS CURRENTLY WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WILL INITIALIZE WITH A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS...SHOULD SEE WINDS
TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST
WATERS WITH 7 FT RESTRICTED TO THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OF JUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SAT NIGHT...THEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARS...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NNW TO N SAT
AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN VEER TO NE SUN AND THEN BECOME E OR SE SUN
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE
GULF STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY TUES AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
ON SHORE SE WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KT PUSHING SEAS
RAPIDLY UP FROM LESS THAN 3 FT EARLY MONDAY UP CLOSE TO 8 TO 10 FT
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INCREASING FURTHER AS WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OUT OF THE S-SW BY TUES MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MON EVENING. SEAS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER THROUGH TUES BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS LOW LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF SHORE FLOW TO
DEVELOP AND KEEPING HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS UP NEAR 11 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS BY
TUES AFTN.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/RGZ





000
FXUS62 KILM 130233
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
933 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP WILL
BEGIN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NORMAL VALUES AHEAD OF
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS NOW 250+ MILES EAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS AND IS SURROUNDED BY AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK IS COUNTING OVER
800 STRIKES PER 15 MINUTES OFFSHORE! THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ACCELERATE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CHARLOTTE TO JUST
WEST OF AUGUSTA GA WILL RACE EASTWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...REACHING THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WE`VE
ALREADY LOST THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS THINNING ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AS WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP DOWN TO 925 MB.

CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT...WITH PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. ONCE
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUNCH IN ALONG WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ERASE ANY RADIATIONAL INVERSION
THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND COUNTERINTUITIVELY
SHOULD CREATE A ~5 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. COLD ADVECTION
WILL THEN DROP LOWS BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AGAIN BY
DAYBREAK. THIS MAY SEEM EXCESSIVELY WARM GIVEN THE FACT THAT 850
MB TEMPS WILL BE PLUNGING BELOW -8C BY DAYBREAK...BUT GUSTY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. AS THIS ARCTIC HIGH IS BUILDING IN...IT WILL BRING
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND
MINUS 10 DEG C AND AS COLD AS MINUS 10 DEG C. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH TEMPS ON SAT...EVEN WITH SUNSHINE...WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK AND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...IT WILL FALL SHORT OF 40. IT WILL FEEL NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ALL DAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...ONLY IN THE 20S.

AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION...THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP. WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM MAXIMIZING. HOWEVER... EVEN WITH
THAT...WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THIS WILL
BE A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD AS THE WIND CONTRIBUTION WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. IT IS LIKELY A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5 DEG SET IN 1899/18

FLORENCE: 15 DEG SET IN 1968/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 DEG SET IN 1955/19

THEN ON SUN...NOT MUCH OF A WARMUP. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER OUT OF THE 30S AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPS EXCEED 32 DEG.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT
AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR ICE PELLETS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MON. WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS RISK. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
INSULATE THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS
FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 20S SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE E-NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES
MORNING. CENTER OF LOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA
KEEPING WARM AIR IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SW-W THROUGH TUES AS SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT IN PLACE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. THEREFORE EXPECT
CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND PCP TO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. QPF MAY BE UPWARDS OF
AN INCH BY TUES MORNING.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY ON TUES...ONE MORE MINOR SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS
AND LOW END PCP AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OVERNIGHT TUES
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WED THROUGH
FRI.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SHARP RISE IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 850 TEMPS BELOW 0C WILL WARM TO 8C BRINGING
TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL ON MONDAY AND AT OR ABOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE. ONCE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE COAST EARLY
THURS...MAY SEE A BRIEF COOLING BEFORE H5 HEIGHTS RISE LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY FRI ALLOWING FOR WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP BY FRI. THEREFORE MAY SEE A LITTLE DIP IN TEMPS ON THURS
BUT OVERALL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW CIGS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

LATEST IMAGERY REMAINS VERY QUIET THIS EVENING AS ALL PRECIPITATION
FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT LOW TO MID CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF LOW CIGS ARE
CREATING MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING. DO ANTICIPATE SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVING WAY TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
ON SATURDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. WILL SEE GUSTS SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NC FOOTHILLS INTO THE SC
MOUNTAINS WILL RACE EASTWARD...REACHING THE BEACHES BETWEEN 2-4
AM. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS CURRENTLY WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KT TOWARD DAYBREAK BEHIND THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS POSTED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WILL INITIALIZE WITH A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS...SHOULD SEE WINDS
TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST
WATERS WITH 7 FT RESTRICTED TO THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OF JUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SAT NIGHT...THEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARS...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NNW TO N SAT
AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN VEER TO NE SUN AND THEN BECOME E OR SE SUN
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE
GULF STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY TUES AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
ON SHORE SE WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KT PUSHING SEAS
RAPIDLY UP FROM LESS THAN 3 FT EARLY MONDAY UP CLOSE TO 8 TO 10 FT
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INCREASING FURTHER AS WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OUT OF THE S-SW BY TUES MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MON EVENING. SEAS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER THROUGH TUES BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS LOW LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF SHORE FLOW TO
DEVELOP AND KEEPING HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS UP NEAR 11 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS BY
TUES AFTN.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 122340
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP WILL
BEGIN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NORMAL VALUES AHEAD OF
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW ~125 MILES EAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND SC MOUNTAINS
WILL RACE EASTWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...REACHING THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WE`VE ALREADY LOST THE HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THINNING (ESPECIALLY ABOVE 925
MB) AS WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN
NOW AND MIDNIGHT...AND I HAVE SOME CONCERN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES...MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL PUNCH IN ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THIS
WILL ERASE ANY RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT...STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THIS
MAY SEEM EXCESSIVELY WARM GIVEN THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE
PLUNGING BELOW -8C BY DAYBREAK...BUT GUSTY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DUE TO COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. AS THIS ARCTIC HIGH IS BUILDING IN...IT WILL BRING
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND
MINUS 10 DEG C AND AS COLD AS MINUS 10 DEG C. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH TEMPS ON SAT...EVEN WITH SUNSHINE...WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK AND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...IT WILL FALL SHORT OF 40. IT WILL FEEL NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ALL DAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...ONLY IN THE 20S.

AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION...THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP. WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM MAXIMIZING. HOWEVER... EVEN WITH
THAT...WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THIS WILL
BE A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD AS THE WIND CONTRIBUTION WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. IT IS LIKELY A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5 DEG SET IN 1899/18

FLORENCE: 15 DEG SET IN 1968/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 DEG SET IN 1955/19

THEN ON SUN...NOT MUCH OF A WARMUP. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER OUT OF THE 30S AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPS EXCEED 32 DEG.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT
AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR ICE PELLETS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MON. WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS RISK. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
INSULATE THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS
FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 20S SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE E-NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES
MORNING. CENTER OF LOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA
KEEPING WARM AIR IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SW-W THROUGH TUES AS SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT IN PLACE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. THEREFORE EXPECT
CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND PCP TO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. QPF MAY BE UPWARDS OF
AN INCH BY TUES MORNING.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY ON TUES...ONE MORE MINOR SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS
AND LOW END PCP AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OVERNIGHT TUES
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WED THROUGH
FRI.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SHARP RISE IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 850 TEMPS BELOW 0C WILL WARM TO 8C BRINGING
TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL ON MONDAY AND AT OR ABOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE. ONCE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE COAST EARLY
THURS...MAY SEE A BRIEF COOLING BEFORE H5 HEIGHTS RISE LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY FRI ALLOWING FOR WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP BY FRI. THEREFORE MAY SEE A LITTLE DIP IN TEMPS ON THURS
BUT OVERALL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW CIGS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

LATEST IMAGERY REMAINS VERY QUIET THIS EVENING AS ALL PRECIPITATION
FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT LOW TO MID CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF LOW CIGS ARE
CREATING MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING. DO ANTICIPATE SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVING WAY TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
ON SATURDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. WILL SEE GUSTS SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NC FOOTHILLS INTO THE SC MOUNTAINS
WILL RACE EASTWARD...REACHING THE BEACHES BETWEEN 2-4 AM.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS CURRENTLY WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
TOWARD DAYBREAK BEHIND THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
POSTED. THE ONLY CHANGE THIS UPDATE FEATURES IS A 1-FOOT INCREASE
IN SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE CAPE FEAR
AREA...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WILL INITIALIZE WITH A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS...SHOULD SEE WINDS
TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST
WATERS WITH 7 FT RESTRICTED TO THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OF JUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SAT NIGHT...THEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARS...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NNW TO N SAT
AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN VEER TO NE SUN AND THEN BECOME E OR SE SUN
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE
GULF STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY TUES AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
ON SHORE SE WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KT PUSHING SEAS
RAPIDLY UP FROM LESS THAN 3 FT EARLY MONDAY UP CLOSE TO 8 TO 10 FT
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INCREASING FURTHER AS WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OUT OF THE S-SW BY TUES MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MON EVENING. SEAS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER THROUGH TUES BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS LOW LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF SHORE FLOW TO
DEVELOP AND KEEPING HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS UP NEAR 11 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS BY
TUES AFTN.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 122340
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP WILL
BEGIN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NORMAL VALUES AHEAD OF
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW ~125 MILES EAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND SC MOUNTAINS
WILL RACE EASTWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...REACHING THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WE`VE ALREADY LOST THE HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THINNING (ESPECIALLY ABOVE 925
MB) AS WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN
NOW AND MIDNIGHT...AND I HAVE SOME CONCERN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES...MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL PUNCH IN ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THIS
WILL ERASE ANY RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT...STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THIS
MAY SEEM EXCESSIVELY WARM GIVEN THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE
PLUNGING BELOW -8C BY DAYBREAK...BUT GUSTY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DUE TO COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. AS THIS ARCTIC HIGH IS BUILDING IN...IT WILL BRING
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND
MINUS 10 DEG C AND AS COLD AS MINUS 10 DEG C. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH TEMPS ON SAT...EVEN WITH SUNSHINE...WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK AND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...IT WILL FALL SHORT OF 40. IT WILL FEEL NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ALL DAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...ONLY IN THE 20S.

AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION...THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP. WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM MAXIMIZING. HOWEVER... EVEN WITH
THAT...WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THIS WILL
BE A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD AS THE WIND CONTRIBUTION WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. IT IS LIKELY A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5 DEG SET IN 1899/18

FLORENCE: 15 DEG SET IN 1968/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 DEG SET IN 1955/19

THEN ON SUN...NOT MUCH OF A WARMUP. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER OUT OF THE 30S AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPS EXCEED 32 DEG.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT
AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR ICE PELLETS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MON. WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS RISK. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
INSULATE THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS
FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 20S SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE E-NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES
MORNING. CENTER OF LOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA
KEEPING WARM AIR IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SW-W THROUGH TUES AS SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT IN PLACE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. THEREFORE EXPECT
CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND PCP TO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. QPF MAY BE UPWARDS OF
AN INCH BY TUES MORNING.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY ON TUES...ONE MORE MINOR SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS
AND LOW END PCP AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OVERNIGHT TUES
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WED THROUGH
FRI.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SHARP RISE IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 850 TEMPS BELOW 0C WILL WARM TO 8C BRINGING
TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL ON MONDAY AND AT OR ABOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE. ONCE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE COAST EARLY
THURS...MAY SEE A BRIEF COOLING BEFORE H5 HEIGHTS RISE LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY FRI ALLOWING FOR WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP BY FRI. THEREFORE MAY SEE A LITTLE DIP IN TEMPS ON THURS
BUT OVERALL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW CIGS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

LATEST IMAGERY REMAINS VERY QUIET THIS EVENING AS ALL PRECIPITATION
FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT LOW TO MID CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF LOW CIGS ARE
CREATING MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING. DO ANTICIPATE SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVING WAY TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
ON SATURDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. WILL SEE GUSTS SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NC FOOTHILLS INTO THE SC MOUNTAINS
WILL RACE EASTWARD...REACHING THE BEACHES BETWEEN 2-4 AM.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS CURRENTLY WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
TOWARD DAYBREAK BEHIND THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
POSTED. THE ONLY CHANGE THIS UPDATE FEATURES IS A 1-FOOT INCREASE
IN SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE CAPE FEAR
AREA...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WILL INITIALIZE WITH A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS...SHOULD SEE WINDS
TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST
WATERS WITH 7 FT RESTRICTED TO THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OF JUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SAT NIGHT...THEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARS...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NNW TO N SAT
AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN VEER TO NE SUN AND THEN BECOME E OR SE SUN
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE
GULF STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY TUES AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
ON SHORE SE WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KT PUSHING SEAS
RAPIDLY UP FROM LESS THAN 3 FT EARLY MONDAY UP CLOSE TO 8 TO 10 FT
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INCREASING FURTHER AS WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OUT OF THE S-SW BY TUES MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MON EVENING. SEAS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER THROUGH TUES BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS LOW LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF SHORE FLOW TO
DEVELOP AND KEEPING HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS UP NEAR 11 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS BY
TUES AFTN.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 122340
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP WILL
BEGIN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NORMAL VALUES AHEAD OF
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW ~125 MILES EAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND SC MOUNTAINS
WILL RACE EASTWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...REACHING THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WE`VE ALREADY LOST THE HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THINNING (ESPECIALLY ABOVE 925
MB) AS WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN
NOW AND MIDNIGHT...AND I HAVE SOME CONCERN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES...MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL PUNCH IN ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THIS
WILL ERASE ANY RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT...STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THIS
MAY SEEM EXCESSIVELY WARM GIVEN THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE
PLUNGING BELOW -8C BY DAYBREAK...BUT GUSTY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DUE TO COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. AS THIS ARCTIC HIGH IS BUILDING IN...IT WILL BRING
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND
MINUS 10 DEG C AND AS COLD AS MINUS 10 DEG C. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH TEMPS ON SAT...EVEN WITH SUNSHINE...WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK AND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...IT WILL FALL SHORT OF 40. IT WILL FEEL NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ALL DAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...ONLY IN THE 20S.

AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION...THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP. WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM MAXIMIZING. HOWEVER... EVEN WITH
THAT...WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THIS WILL
BE A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD AS THE WIND CONTRIBUTION WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. IT IS LIKELY A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5 DEG SET IN 1899/18

FLORENCE: 15 DEG SET IN 1968/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 DEG SET IN 1955/19

THEN ON SUN...NOT MUCH OF A WARMUP. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER OUT OF THE 30S AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPS EXCEED 32 DEG.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT
AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR ICE PELLETS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MON. WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS RISK. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
INSULATE THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS
FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 20S SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE E-NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES
MORNING. CENTER OF LOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA
KEEPING WARM AIR IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SW-W THROUGH TUES AS SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT IN PLACE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. THEREFORE EXPECT
CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND PCP TO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. QPF MAY BE UPWARDS OF
AN INCH BY TUES MORNING.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY ON TUES...ONE MORE MINOR SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS
AND LOW END PCP AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OVERNIGHT TUES
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WED THROUGH
FRI.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SHARP RISE IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 850 TEMPS BELOW 0C WILL WARM TO 8C BRINGING
TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL ON MONDAY AND AT OR ABOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE. ONCE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE COAST EARLY
THURS...MAY SEE A BRIEF COOLING BEFORE H5 HEIGHTS RISE LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY FRI ALLOWING FOR WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP BY FRI. THEREFORE MAY SEE A LITTLE DIP IN TEMPS ON THURS
BUT OVERALL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW CIGS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

LATEST IMAGERY REMAINS VERY QUIET THIS EVENING AS ALL PRECIPITATION
FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT LOW TO MID CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF LOW CIGS ARE
CREATING MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING. DO ANTICIPATE SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVING WAY TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
ON SATURDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. WILL SEE GUSTS SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NC FOOTHILLS INTO THE SC MOUNTAINS
WILL RACE EASTWARD...REACHING THE BEACHES BETWEEN 2-4 AM.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS CURRENTLY WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
TOWARD DAYBREAK BEHIND THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
POSTED. THE ONLY CHANGE THIS UPDATE FEATURES IS A 1-FOOT INCREASE
IN SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE CAPE FEAR
AREA...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WILL INITIALIZE WITH A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS...SHOULD SEE WINDS
TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST
WATERS WITH 7 FT RESTRICTED TO THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OF JUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SAT NIGHT...THEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARS...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NNW TO N SAT
AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN VEER TO NE SUN AND THEN BECOME E OR SE SUN
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE
GULF STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY TUES AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
ON SHORE SE WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KT PUSHING SEAS
RAPIDLY UP FROM LESS THAN 3 FT EARLY MONDAY UP CLOSE TO 8 TO 10 FT
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INCREASING FURTHER AS WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OUT OF THE S-SW BY TUES MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MON EVENING. SEAS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER THROUGH TUES BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS LOW LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF SHORE FLOW TO
DEVELOP AND KEEPING HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS UP NEAR 11 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS BY
TUES AFTN.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 122035
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
335 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR THIS WEEKEND. A WARMUP
WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL VALUES
AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD RAIN
CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL
COUNTIES EXCEPT MARLBORO...ROBESON...AND BLADEN WHERE THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN REMAINS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS PRECIP IS LIKELY
TO LINGER IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...HENCE THE
SHORT EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY. SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OFF THE LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND
HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE WAVE. PRECIP CHANCES RAPIDLY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND POST
WAVE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO POINT TO LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BUT SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIRMASS
STARTS SPILLING INTO THE REGION. 850 TEMPS DROP 12C TO 14C FROM
THIS EVENING TO SAT MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S.
STRONG ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LOWS IN THE 20S COMBINED WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH NEAR DAYBREAK
WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. AS THIS ARCTIC HIGH IS BUILDING IN...IT WILL BRING
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND
MINUS 10 DEG C AND AS COLD AS MINUS 10 DEG C. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH TEMPS ON SAT...EVEN WITH SUNSHINE...WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK AND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...IT WILL FALL SHORT OF 40. IT WILL FEEL NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ALL DAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...ONLY IN THE 20S.

AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION...THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP. WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM MAXIMIZING. HOWEVER... EVEN WITH
THAT...WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THIS WILL
BE A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD AS THE WIND CONTRIBUTION WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. IT IS LIKELY A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5 DEG SET IN 1899/18

FLORENCE: 15 DEG SET IN 1968/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 DEG SET IN 1955/19

THEN ON SUN...NOT MUCH OF A WARMUP. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER OUT OF THE 30S AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPS EXCEED 32 DEG.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT
AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR ICE PELLETS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MON. WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS RISK. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
INSULATE THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS
FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 20S SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE E-NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES
MORNING. CENTER OF LOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA
KEEPING WARM AIR IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SW-W THROUGH TUES AS SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT IN PLACE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. THEREFORE EXPECT
CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND PCP TO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. QPF MAY BE UPWARDS OF
AN INCH BY TUES MORNING.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY ON TUES...ONE MORE MINOR SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS
AND LOW END PCP AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OVERNIGHT TUES
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WED THROUGH
FRI.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SHARP RISE IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 850 TEMPS BELOW 0C WILL WARM TO 8C BRINGING
TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL ON MONDAY AND AT OR ABOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE. ONCE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE COAST EARLY
THURS...MAY SEE A BRIEF COOLING BEFORE H5 HEIGHTS RISE LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY FRI ALLOWING FOR WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP BY FRI. THEREFORE MAY SEE A LITTLE DIP IN TEMPS ON THURS
BUT OVERALL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CURRENTLY KLBT IS THE TAF WITH THE MOST WINTRY MIX.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 1ST 3 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST THEN CLEAR OUT. CEILING AND SKY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH A FLIRT AT THE COAST WITH SOME
IFR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST PULLS
AWAY ALL SITES SHOULD SWITCH TO IFR BETWEEN 02 AND 04 UTC.

A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BY MORNING SATURDAY AND
NORTHWEST WIND OF 12 TO 16 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUST
INCREASING AFTER 13 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WAVE OFF THE COAST
BECOMES MORE DEFINED. THE LOW WILL EXIT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING. DURATION OF LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
BRIEF AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN
WINDS BUT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WILL INITIALIZE WITH A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS...SHOULD SEE WINDS
TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST
WATERS WITH 7 FT RESTRICTED TO THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OF JUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SAT NIGHT...THEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARS...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NNW TO N SAT
AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN VEER TO NE SUN AND THEN BECOME E OR SE SUN
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE
GULF STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY TUES AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
ON SHORE SE WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KT PUSHING SEAS
RAPIDLY UP FROM LESS THAN 3 FT EARLY MONDAY UP CLOSE TO 8 TO 10 FT
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INCREASING FURTHER AS WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OUT OF THE S-SW BY TUES MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MON EVENING. SEAS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER THROUGH TUES BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS LOW LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF SHORE FLOW TO
DEVELOP AND KEEPING HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS UP NEAR 11 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS BY
TUES AFTN.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DRH





000
FXUS62 KILM 122035
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
335 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR THIS WEEKEND. A WARMUP
WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL VALUES
AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD RAIN
CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL
COUNTIES EXCEPT MARLBORO...ROBESON...AND BLADEN WHERE THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN REMAINS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS PRECIP IS LIKELY
TO LINGER IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...HENCE THE
SHORT EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY. SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OFF THE LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND
HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE WAVE. PRECIP CHANCES RAPIDLY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND POST
WAVE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO POINT TO LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BUT SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIRMASS
STARTS SPILLING INTO THE REGION. 850 TEMPS DROP 12C TO 14C FROM
THIS EVENING TO SAT MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S.
STRONG ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LOWS IN THE 20S COMBINED WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH NEAR DAYBREAK
WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. AS THIS ARCTIC HIGH IS BUILDING IN...IT WILL BRING
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND
MINUS 10 DEG C AND AS COLD AS MINUS 10 DEG C. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH TEMPS ON SAT...EVEN WITH SUNSHINE...WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK AND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...IT WILL FALL SHORT OF 40. IT WILL FEEL NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ALL DAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...ONLY IN THE 20S.

AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION...THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP. WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM MAXIMIZING. HOWEVER... EVEN WITH
THAT...WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THIS WILL
BE A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD AS THE WIND CONTRIBUTION WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. IT IS LIKELY A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5 DEG SET IN 1899/18

FLORENCE: 15 DEG SET IN 1968/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 DEG SET IN 1955/19

THEN ON SUN...NOT MUCH OF A WARMUP. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER OUT OF THE 30S AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPS EXCEED 32 DEG.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT
AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR ICE PELLETS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MON. WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS RISK. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
INSULATE THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS
FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 20S SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE E-NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES
MORNING. CENTER OF LOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA
KEEPING WARM AIR IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SW-W THROUGH TUES AS SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT IN PLACE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. THEREFORE EXPECT
CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND PCP TO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. QPF MAY BE UPWARDS OF
AN INCH BY TUES MORNING.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY ON TUES...ONE MORE MINOR SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS
AND LOW END PCP AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OVERNIGHT TUES
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WED THROUGH
FRI.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SHARP RISE IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 850 TEMPS BELOW 0C WILL WARM TO 8C BRINGING
TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL ON MONDAY AND AT OR ABOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE. ONCE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE COAST EARLY
THURS...MAY SEE A BRIEF COOLING BEFORE H5 HEIGHTS RISE LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY FRI ALLOWING FOR WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP BY FRI. THEREFORE MAY SEE A LITTLE DIP IN TEMPS ON THURS
BUT OVERALL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CURRENTLY KLBT IS THE TAF WITH THE MOST WINTRY MIX.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 1ST 3 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST THEN CLEAR OUT. CEILING AND SKY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH A FLIRT AT THE COAST WITH SOME
IFR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST PULLS
AWAY ALL SITES SHOULD SWITCH TO IFR BETWEEN 02 AND 04 UTC.

A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BY MORNING SATURDAY AND
NORTHWEST WIND OF 12 TO 16 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUST
INCREASING AFTER 13 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WAVE OFF THE COAST
BECOMES MORE DEFINED. THE LOW WILL EXIT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING. DURATION OF LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
BRIEF AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN
WINDS BUT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WILL INITIALIZE WITH A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS...SHOULD SEE WINDS
TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST
WATERS WITH 7 FT RESTRICTED TO THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OF JUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SAT NIGHT...THEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARS...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NNW TO N SAT
AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN VEER TO NE SUN AND THEN BECOME E OR SE SUN
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE
GULF STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY TUES AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
ON SHORE SE WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KT PUSHING SEAS
RAPIDLY UP FROM LESS THAN 3 FT EARLY MONDAY UP CLOSE TO 8 TO 10 FT
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INCREASING FURTHER AS WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OUT OF THE S-SW BY TUES MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MON EVENING. SEAS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER THROUGH TUES BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS LOW LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF SHORE FLOW TO
DEVELOP AND KEEPING HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS UP NEAR 11 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS BY
TUES AFTN.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DRH




000
FXUS62 KILM 122035
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
335 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR THIS WEEKEND. A WARMUP
WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL VALUES
AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD RAIN
CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL
COUNTIES EXCEPT MARLBORO...ROBESON...AND BLADEN WHERE THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN REMAINS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS PRECIP IS LIKELY
TO LINGER IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...HENCE THE
SHORT EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY. SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OFF THE LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND
HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE WAVE. PRECIP CHANCES RAPIDLY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND POST
WAVE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO POINT TO LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BUT SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIRMASS
STARTS SPILLING INTO THE REGION. 850 TEMPS DROP 12C TO 14C FROM
THIS EVENING TO SAT MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S.
STRONG ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LOWS IN THE 20S COMBINED WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH NEAR DAYBREAK
WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. AS THIS ARCTIC HIGH IS BUILDING IN...IT WILL BRING
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND
MINUS 10 DEG C AND AS COLD AS MINUS 10 DEG C. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH TEMPS ON SAT...EVEN WITH SUNSHINE...WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK AND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...IT WILL FALL SHORT OF 40. IT WILL FEEL NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ALL DAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...ONLY IN THE 20S.

AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION...THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP. WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM MAXIMIZING. HOWEVER... EVEN WITH
THAT...WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THIS WILL
BE A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD AS THE WIND CONTRIBUTION WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. IT IS LIKELY A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5 DEG SET IN 1899/18

FLORENCE: 15 DEG SET IN 1968/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 DEG SET IN 1955/19

THEN ON SUN...NOT MUCH OF A WARMUP. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER OUT OF THE 30S AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPS EXCEED 32 DEG.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT
AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR ICE PELLETS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MON. WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS RISK. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
INSULATE THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS
FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 20S SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE E-NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES
MORNING. CENTER OF LOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA
KEEPING WARM AIR IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SW-W THROUGH TUES AS SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT IN PLACE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. THEREFORE EXPECT
CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND PCP TO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. QPF MAY BE UPWARDS OF
AN INCH BY TUES MORNING.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY ON TUES...ONE MORE MINOR SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS
AND LOW END PCP AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OVERNIGHT TUES
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WED THROUGH
FRI.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SHARP RISE IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 850 TEMPS BELOW 0C WILL WARM TO 8C BRINGING
TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL ON MONDAY AND AT OR ABOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE. ONCE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE COAST EARLY
THURS...MAY SEE A BRIEF COOLING BEFORE H5 HEIGHTS RISE LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY FRI ALLOWING FOR WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP BY FRI. THEREFORE MAY SEE A LITTLE DIP IN TEMPS ON THURS
BUT OVERALL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CURRENTLY KLBT IS THE TAF WITH THE MOST WINTRY MIX.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 1ST 3 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST THEN CLEAR OUT. CEILING AND SKY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH A FLIRT AT THE COAST WITH SOME
IFR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST PULLS
AWAY ALL SITES SHOULD SWITCH TO IFR BETWEEN 02 AND 04 UTC.

A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BY MORNING SATURDAY AND
NORTHWEST WIND OF 12 TO 16 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUST
INCREASING AFTER 13 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WAVE OFF THE COAST
BECOMES MORE DEFINED. THE LOW WILL EXIT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING. DURATION OF LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
BRIEF AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN
WINDS BUT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WILL INITIALIZE WITH A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS...SHOULD SEE WINDS
TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST
WATERS WITH 7 FT RESTRICTED TO THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OF JUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SAT NIGHT...THEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARS...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NNW TO N SAT
AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN VEER TO NE SUN AND THEN BECOME E OR SE SUN
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE
GULF STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY TUES AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
ON SHORE SE WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KT PUSHING SEAS
RAPIDLY UP FROM LESS THAN 3 FT EARLY MONDAY UP CLOSE TO 8 TO 10 FT
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INCREASING FURTHER AS WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OUT OF THE S-SW BY TUES MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MON EVENING. SEAS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER THROUGH TUES BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS LOW LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF SHORE FLOW TO
DEVELOP AND KEEPING HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS UP NEAR 11 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS BY
TUES AFTN.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DRH





000
FXUS62 KILM 121855
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
155 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TODAY SPREADING A LIGHT MIX
OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A
WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL
COUNTIES EXCEPT MARLBORO...ROBESON...AND BLADEN WHERE THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN REMAINS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS PRECIP IS LIKELY
TO LINGER IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...HENCE THE
SHORT EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY. SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OFF THE LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND
HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE WAVE. PRECIP CHANCES RAPIDLY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND POST
WAVE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO POINT TO LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BUT SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIRMASS
STARTS SPILLING INTO THE REGION. 850 TEMPS DROP 12C TO 14C FROM
THIS EVENING TO SAT MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S.
STRONG ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LOWS IN THE 20S COMBINED WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH NEAR DAYBREAK
WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RECORD LOWS TO BE SET SUNDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RECORD LOW HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON THE
UPWIND SIDE OF A SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBTLY INCREASING
THICKNESSES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO THE FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES
AROUND THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR SET TO INVADE THE AREA.

850MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE
EVENING...DROPPING AS LOW AS -12C SOUTHERN ZONES TO -15C NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING USUALLY CREATES HIGHS
BELOW GUIDANCE...DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...AND THUS THE MOS NUMBERS
OF THE MID 40S WELL SOUTH AND AROUND 40 NORTH ARE LIKELY TOO WARM.
INHERITED HAS UNDERCUT THESE VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 35 FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...TO ABOUT 42 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THESE LOW HIGHS
AND RAPID COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PERMIT NEAR RECORD LOWS BY
SUNDAY MORNING:

RECORD LOWS (YEAR)/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/18

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

THESE WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
WIND CHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND DRY-
ADIABATIC MIXING WILL KEEP WINDS UP ALL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN
FACT MAY BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAN DURING THE DAY. WINDS
OF AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WILL REMAIN GUSTY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL NOT
HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY YET...BUT EXPECT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

EVEN COLDER HIGHS ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION SHUTS
OFF...VERY SHALLOW MIXING AND THE COLD START WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
FREEZING FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S WELL SOUTH. RECORD-LOW
MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT FLORENCE (RECORD 44) BUT WILL LIKELY BE
MISSED AT WILMINGTON (RECORD 29). SUBTLY WARMER LOWS SUNDAY WILL
OCCUR THANKS TO SLOWLY DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING CLOUD
COVER...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES. EXPECT MINS SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DROP TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES...WARMEST AT THE SC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MS VLY. AHEAD OF THIS DEEP TROUGH...STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO PTYPE
ISSUES THIS TIME AROUND...BUT GOOD MOIST ADVECTION AND STRONG
FORCING SUPPORTS A HIGH QPF EVENT WHICH COULD ENHANCE OR PROLONG
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. TEMPS TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY RISE TO WELL
ABOVE CLIMO IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE
NORTH...WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COAST. BEHIND THIS LOW A QUICK
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT IT WILL TAKE A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO
DRIVE TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CURRENTLY KLBT IS THE TAF WITH THE MOST WINTRY MIX.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 1ST 3 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST THEN CLEAR OUT. CEILING AND SKY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH A FLIRT AT THE COAST WITH
SOME IFR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
PULLS AWAY ALL SITES SHOULD SWITCH TO IFR BETWEEN 02 AND 04 UTC.

A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BY MORNING SATURDAY AND
NORTHWEST WIND OF 12 TO 16 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUST
INCREASING AFTER 13 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WAVE OFF THE COAST
BECOMES MORE DEFINED. THE LOW WILL EXIT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING. DURATION OF LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
BRIEF AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN
WINDS BUT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL CREATE CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...WITH
ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE. THESE ARE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS AND OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
EASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SUBTLE
INCREASE WILL BE NOTED VERY LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SEAS SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY BE 3-5 FT THANKS TO
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WIND WAVE...BUT WILL FALL TO 1-2 FT LATE
WITH A 10 SEC SE SWELL INCREASING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SE STATES...REMAINING WEST OF THE
WATERS...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15-25 KTS WHILE
VEERING FROM EAST TO SOUTH...AND THEN INCREASING EVEN FURTHER TO
20-25 KTS FROM THE SW THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE...ITS COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BUT WITH STILL
ELEVATED SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BUILD VERY RAPIDLY MONDAY FROM 1-2 FT
MONDAY MORNING TO 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POTENTIALLY AS
HIGH AS 10 FT TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS...BUT THE LONG FETCH AT LEAST PRESENTS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUCH HIGH SEAS. WAVES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE POOR
MARINE CONDITIONS WITH HEADLINES A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ISSUED YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ017.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ087-096.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DRH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK





000
FXUS62 KILM 121855
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
155 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TODAY SPREADING A LIGHT MIX
OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A
WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL
COUNTIES EXCEPT MARLBORO...ROBESON...AND BLADEN WHERE THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN REMAINS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS PRECIP IS LIKELY
TO LINGER IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...HENCE THE
SHORT EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY. SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OFF THE LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND
HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE WAVE. PRECIP CHANCES RAPIDLY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND POST
WAVE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO POINT TO LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BUT SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIRMASS
STARTS SPILLING INTO THE REGION. 850 TEMPS DROP 12C TO 14C FROM
THIS EVENING TO SAT MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S.
STRONG ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LOWS IN THE 20S COMBINED WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH NEAR DAYBREAK
WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RECORD LOWS TO BE SET SUNDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RECORD LOW HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON THE
UPWIND SIDE OF A SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBTLY INCREASING
THICKNESSES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO THE FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES
AROUND THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR SET TO INVADE THE AREA.

850MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE
EVENING...DROPPING AS LOW AS -12C SOUTHERN ZONES TO -15C NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING USUALLY CREATES HIGHS
BELOW GUIDANCE...DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...AND THUS THE MOS NUMBERS
OF THE MID 40S WELL SOUTH AND AROUND 40 NORTH ARE LIKELY TOO WARM.
INHERITED HAS UNDERCUT THESE VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 35 FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...TO ABOUT 42 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THESE LOW HIGHS
AND RAPID COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PERMIT NEAR RECORD LOWS BY
SUNDAY MORNING:

RECORD LOWS (YEAR)/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/18

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

THESE WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
WIND CHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND DRY-
ADIABATIC MIXING WILL KEEP WINDS UP ALL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN
FACT MAY BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAN DURING THE DAY. WINDS
OF AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WILL REMAIN GUSTY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL NOT
HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY YET...BUT EXPECT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

EVEN COLDER HIGHS ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION SHUTS
OFF...VERY SHALLOW MIXING AND THE COLD START WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
FREEZING FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S WELL SOUTH. RECORD-LOW
MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT FLORENCE (RECORD 44) BUT WILL LIKELY BE
MISSED AT WILMINGTON (RECORD 29). SUBTLY WARMER LOWS SUNDAY WILL
OCCUR THANKS TO SLOWLY DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING CLOUD
COVER...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES. EXPECT MINS SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DROP TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES...WARMEST AT THE SC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MS VLY. AHEAD OF THIS DEEP TROUGH...STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO PTYPE
ISSUES THIS TIME AROUND...BUT GOOD MOIST ADVECTION AND STRONG
FORCING SUPPORTS A HIGH QPF EVENT WHICH COULD ENHANCE OR PROLONG
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. TEMPS TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY RISE TO WELL
ABOVE CLIMO IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE
NORTH...WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COAST. BEHIND THIS LOW A QUICK
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT IT WILL TAKE A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO
DRIVE TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CURRENTLY KLBT IS THE TAF WITH THE MOST WINTRY MIX.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 1ST 3 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST THEN CLEAR OUT. CEILING AND SKY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH A FLIRT AT THE COAST WITH
SOME IFR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
PULLS AWAY ALL SITES SHOULD SWITCH TO IFR BETWEEN 02 AND 04 UTC.

A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BY MORNING SATURDAY AND
NORTHWEST WIND OF 12 TO 16 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUST
INCREASING AFTER 13 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WAVE OFF THE COAST
BECOMES MORE DEFINED. THE LOW WILL EXIT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING. DURATION OF LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
BRIEF AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN
WINDS BUT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL CREATE CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...WITH
ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE. THESE ARE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS AND OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
EASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SUBTLE
INCREASE WILL BE NOTED VERY LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SEAS SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY BE 3-5 FT THANKS TO
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WIND WAVE...BUT WILL FALL TO 1-2 FT LATE
WITH A 10 SEC SE SWELL INCREASING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SE STATES...REMAINING WEST OF THE
WATERS...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15-25 KTS WHILE
VEERING FROM EAST TO SOUTH...AND THEN INCREASING EVEN FURTHER TO
20-25 KTS FROM THE SW THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE...ITS COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BUT WITH STILL
ELEVATED SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BUILD VERY RAPIDLY MONDAY FROM 1-2 FT
MONDAY MORNING TO 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POTENTIALLY AS
HIGH AS 10 FT TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS...BUT THE LONG FETCH AT LEAST PRESENTS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUCH HIGH SEAS. WAVES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE POOR
MARINE CONDITIONS WITH HEADLINES A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ISSUED YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ017.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ087-096.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DRH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK




000
FXUS62 KILM 121855
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
155 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TODAY SPREADING A LIGHT MIX
OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A
WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL
COUNTIES EXCEPT MARLBORO...ROBESON...AND BLADEN WHERE THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN REMAINS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS PRECIP IS LIKELY
TO LINGER IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...HENCE THE
SHORT EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY. SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OFF THE LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND
HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE WAVE. PRECIP CHANCES RAPIDLY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND POST
WAVE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO POINT TO LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BUT SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIRMASS
STARTS SPILLING INTO THE REGION. 850 TEMPS DROP 12C TO 14C FROM
THIS EVENING TO SAT MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S.
STRONG ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
LOWS IN THE 20S COMBINED WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH NEAR DAYBREAK
WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RECORD LOWS TO BE SET SUNDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RECORD LOW HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON THE
UPWIND SIDE OF A SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBTLY INCREASING
THICKNESSES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO THE FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES
AROUND THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR SET TO INVADE THE AREA.

850MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE
EVENING...DROPPING AS LOW AS -12C SOUTHERN ZONES TO -15C NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING USUALLY CREATES HIGHS
BELOW GUIDANCE...DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...AND THUS THE MOS NUMBERS
OF THE MID 40S WELL SOUTH AND AROUND 40 NORTH ARE LIKELY TOO WARM.
INHERITED HAS UNDERCUT THESE VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 35 FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...TO ABOUT 42 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THESE LOW HIGHS
AND RAPID COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PERMIT NEAR RECORD LOWS BY
SUNDAY MORNING:

RECORD LOWS (YEAR)/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/18

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

THESE WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
WIND CHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND DRY-
ADIABATIC MIXING WILL KEEP WINDS UP ALL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN
FACT MAY BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAN DURING THE DAY. WINDS
OF AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WILL REMAIN GUSTY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL NOT
HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY YET...BUT EXPECT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

EVEN COLDER HIGHS ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION SHUTS
OFF...VERY SHALLOW MIXING AND THE COLD START WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
FREEZING FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S WELL SOUTH. RECORD-LOW
MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT FLORENCE (RECORD 44) BUT WILL LIKELY BE
MISSED AT WILMINGTON (RECORD 29). SUBTLY WARMER LOWS SUNDAY WILL
OCCUR THANKS TO SLOWLY DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING CLOUD
COVER...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES. EXPECT MINS SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DROP TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES...WARMEST AT THE SC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MS VLY. AHEAD OF THIS DEEP TROUGH...STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO PTYPE
ISSUES THIS TIME AROUND...BUT GOOD MOIST ADVECTION AND STRONG
FORCING SUPPORTS A HIGH QPF EVENT WHICH COULD ENHANCE OR PROLONG
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. TEMPS TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY RISE TO WELL
ABOVE CLIMO IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE
NORTH...WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COAST. BEHIND THIS LOW A QUICK
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT IT WILL TAKE A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO
DRIVE TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CURRENTLY KLBT IS THE TAF WITH THE MOST WINTRY MIX.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 1ST 3 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST THEN CLEAR OUT. CEILING AND SKY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH A FLIRT AT THE COAST WITH
SOME IFR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
PULLS AWAY ALL SITES SHOULD SWITCH TO IFR BETWEEN 02 AND 04 UTC.

A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BY MORNING SATURDAY AND
NORTHWEST WIND OF 12 TO 16 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUST
INCREASING AFTER 13 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WAVE OFF THE COAST
BECOMES MORE DEFINED. THE LOW WILL EXIT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING. DURATION OF LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
BRIEF AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN
WINDS BUT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL CREATE CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...WITH
ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE. THESE ARE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS AND OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
EASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SUBTLE
INCREASE WILL BE NOTED VERY LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SEAS SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY BE 3-5 FT THANKS TO
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WIND WAVE...BUT WILL FALL TO 1-2 FT LATE
WITH A 10 SEC SE SWELL INCREASING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SE STATES...REMAINING WEST OF THE
WATERS...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15-25 KTS WHILE
VEERING FROM EAST TO SOUTH...AND THEN INCREASING EVEN FURTHER TO
20-25 KTS FROM THE SW THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE...ITS COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BUT WITH STILL
ELEVATED SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BUILD VERY RAPIDLY MONDAY FROM 1-2 FT
MONDAY MORNING TO 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POTENTIALLY AS
HIGH AS 10 FT TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS...BUT THE LONG FETCH AT LEAST PRESENTS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUCH HIGH SEAS. WAVES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE POOR
MARINE CONDITIONS WITH HEADLINES A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ISSUED YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ017.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ087-096.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DRH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK





000
FXUS62 KILM 121718
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1218 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TODAY SPREADING A LIGHT MIX
OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A
WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT BUT
PERSISTENT ECHOS OVER COASTAL NC WITH COVERAGE TRYING TO EXPAND
INLAND. HOWEVER THE VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER HAS SO FAR PREVENTED
MUCH EXPANSION. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT ICING ON
ELEVATED SURFACES IN COASTAL NC BUT NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT
ICING. LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MIX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN.

GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...HELPING EXPAND THE PRECIP SHIELD. HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY BE
A CASE OF TOO LITTLE TOO LATE AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...WHICH
WILL STILL NOT BE A LOT...IS LIKELY TO END UP FALLING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN AREAS FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL BE
WELL UNDER 0.10 INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RECORD LOWS TO BE SET SUNDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RECORD LOW HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON THE
UPWIND SIDE OF A SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBTLY INCREASING
THICKNESSES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO THE FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES
AROUND THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR SET TO INVADE THE AREA.

850MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE
EVENING...DROPPING AS LOW AS -12C SOUTHERN ZONES TO -15C NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING USUALLY CREATES HIGHS
BELOW GUIDANCE...DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...AND THUS THE MOS NUMBERS
OF THE MID 40S WELL SOUTH AND AROUND 40 NORTH ARE LIKELY TOO WARM.
INHERITED HAS UNDERCUT THESE VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 35 FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...TO ABOUT 42 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THESE LOW HIGHS
AND RAPID COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PERMIT NEAR RECORD LOWS BY
SUNDAY MORNING:

RECORD LOWS (YEAR)/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/18

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

THESE WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
WIND CHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND DRY-
ADIABATIC MIXING WILL KEEP WINDS UP ALL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN
FACT MAY BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAN DURING THE DAY. WINDS
OF AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WILL REMAIN GUSTY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL NOT
HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY YET...BUT EXPECT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

EVEN COLDER HIGHS ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION SHUTS
OFF...VERY SHALLOW MIXING AND THE COLD START WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
FREEZING FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S WELL SOUTH. RECORD-LOW
MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT FLORENCE (RECORD 44) BUT WILL LIKELY BE
MISSED AT WILMINGTON (RECORD 29). SUBTLY WARMER LOWS SUNDAY WILL
OCCUR THANKS TO SLOWLY DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING CLOUD
COVER...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES. EXPECT MINS SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DROP TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES...WARMEST AT THE SC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MS VLY. AHEAD OF THIS DEEP TROUGH...STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO PTYPE
ISSUES THIS TIME AROUND...BUT GOOD MOIST ADVECTION AND STRONG
FORCING SUPPORTS A HIGH QPF EVENT WHICH COULD ENHANCE OR PROLONG
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. TEMPS TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY RISE TO WELL
ABOVE CLIMO IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE
NORTH...WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COAST. BEHIND THIS LOW A QUICK
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT IT WILL TAKE A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO
DRIVE TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CURRENTLY KLBT IS THE TAF WITH THE MOST WINTRY MIX.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 1ST 3 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST THEN CLEAR OUT. CEILING AND SKY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH A FLIRT AT THE COAST WITH
SOME IFR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
PULLS AWAY ALL SITES SHOULD SWITCH TO IFR BETWEEN 02 AND 04 UTC.

A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BY MORNING SATURDAY AND
NORTHWEST WIND OF 12 TO 16 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUST
INCREASING AFTER 13 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...SEAS 1 TO 2 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING BUT NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A BIT.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DEVELOPING
LOW OFF THE COAST BECOMES MORE DEFINED. LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BACKING TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIOD WHERE WINDS COULD GUST INTO THE 20 KT
RANGE BUT BY EVENING GRADIENT WILL BE DECREASING AND WINDS/SEAS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR MORNING
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL CREATE CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...WITH
ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE. THESE ARE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS AND OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
EASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SUBTLE
INCREASE WILL BE NOTED VERY LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SEAS SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY BE 3-5 FT THANKS TO
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WIND WAVE...BUT WILL FALL TO 1-2 FT LATE
WITH A 10 SEC SE SWELL INCREASING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SE STATES...REMAINING WEST OF THE
WATERS...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15-25 KTS WHILE
VEERING FROM EAST TO SOUTH...AND THEN INCREASING EVEN FURTHER TO
20-25 KTS FROM THE SW THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE...ITS COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BUT WITH STILL
ELEVATED SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BUILD VERY RAPIDLY MONDAY FROM 1-2 FT
MONDAY MORNING TO 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POTENTIALLY AS
HIGH AS 10 FT TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS...BUT THE LONG FETCH AT LEAST PRESENTS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUCH HIGH SEAS. WAVES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE POOR
MARINE CONDITIONS WITH HEADLINES A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ISSUED YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-053-054.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...HAWKINS





000
FXUS62 KILM 121718
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1218 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TODAY SPREADING A LIGHT MIX
OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A
WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT BUT
PERSISTENT ECHOS OVER COASTAL NC WITH COVERAGE TRYING TO EXPAND
INLAND. HOWEVER THE VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER HAS SO FAR PREVENTED
MUCH EXPANSION. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT ICING ON
ELEVATED SURFACES IN COASTAL NC BUT NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT
ICING. LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MIX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN.

GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...HELPING EXPAND THE PRECIP SHIELD. HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY BE
A CASE OF TOO LITTLE TOO LATE AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...WHICH
WILL STILL NOT BE A LOT...IS LIKELY TO END UP FALLING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN AREAS FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL BE
WELL UNDER 0.10 INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RECORD LOWS TO BE SET SUNDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RECORD LOW HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON THE
UPWIND SIDE OF A SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBTLY INCREASING
THICKNESSES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO THE FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES
AROUND THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR SET TO INVADE THE AREA.

850MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE
EVENING...DROPPING AS LOW AS -12C SOUTHERN ZONES TO -15C NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING USUALLY CREATES HIGHS
BELOW GUIDANCE...DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...AND THUS THE MOS NUMBERS
OF THE MID 40S WELL SOUTH AND AROUND 40 NORTH ARE LIKELY TOO WARM.
INHERITED HAS UNDERCUT THESE VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 35 FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...TO ABOUT 42 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THESE LOW HIGHS
AND RAPID COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PERMIT NEAR RECORD LOWS BY
SUNDAY MORNING:

RECORD LOWS (YEAR)/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/18

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

THESE WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
WIND CHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND DRY-
ADIABATIC MIXING WILL KEEP WINDS UP ALL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN
FACT MAY BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAN DURING THE DAY. WINDS
OF AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WILL REMAIN GUSTY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL NOT
HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY YET...BUT EXPECT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

EVEN COLDER HIGHS ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION SHUTS
OFF...VERY SHALLOW MIXING AND THE COLD START WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
FREEZING FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S WELL SOUTH. RECORD-LOW
MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT FLORENCE (RECORD 44) BUT WILL LIKELY BE
MISSED AT WILMINGTON (RECORD 29). SUBTLY WARMER LOWS SUNDAY WILL
OCCUR THANKS TO SLOWLY DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING CLOUD
COVER...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES. EXPECT MINS SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DROP TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES...WARMEST AT THE SC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MS VLY. AHEAD OF THIS DEEP TROUGH...STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO PTYPE
ISSUES THIS TIME AROUND...BUT GOOD MOIST ADVECTION AND STRONG
FORCING SUPPORTS A HIGH QPF EVENT WHICH COULD ENHANCE OR PROLONG
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. TEMPS TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY RISE TO WELL
ABOVE CLIMO IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE
NORTH...WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COAST. BEHIND THIS LOW A QUICK
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT IT WILL TAKE A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO
DRIVE TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CURRENTLY KLBT IS THE TAF WITH THE MOST WINTRY MIX.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 1ST 3 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST THEN CLEAR OUT. CEILING AND SKY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH A FLIRT AT THE COAST WITH
SOME IFR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
PULLS AWAY ALL SITES SHOULD SWITCH TO IFR BETWEEN 02 AND 04 UTC.

A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BY MORNING SATURDAY AND
NORTHWEST WIND OF 12 TO 16 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUST
INCREASING AFTER 13 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...SEAS 1 TO 2 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING BUT NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A BIT.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DEVELOPING
LOW OFF THE COAST BECOMES MORE DEFINED. LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BACKING TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIOD WHERE WINDS COULD GUST INTO THE 20 KT
RANGE BUT BY EVENING GRADIENT WILL BE DECREASING AND WINDS/SEAS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR MORNING
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL CREATE CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...WITH
ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE. THESE ARE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS AND OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
EASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SUBTLE
INCREASE WILL BE NOTED VERY LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SEAS SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY BE 3-5 FT THANKS TO
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WIND WAVE...BUT WILL FALL TO 1-2 FT LATE
WITH A 10 SEC SE SWELL INCREASING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SE STATES...REMAINING WEST OF THE
WATERS...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15-25 KTS WHILE
VEERING FROM EAST TO SOUTH...AND THEN INCREASING EVEN FURTHER TO
20-25 KTS FROM THE SW THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE...ITS COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BUT WITH STILL
ELEVATED SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BUILD VERY RAPIDLY MONDAY FROM 1-2 FT
MONDAY MORNING TO 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POTENTIALLY AS
HIGH AS 10 FT TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS...BUT THE LONG FETCH AT LEAST PRESENTS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUCH HIGH SEAS. WAVES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE POOR
MARINE CONDITIONS WITH HEADLINES A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ISSUED YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-053-054.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...HAWKINS





000
FXUS62 KILM 121718
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1218 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TODAY SPREADING A LIGHT MIX
OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A
WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT BUT
PERSISTENT ECHOS OVER COASTAL NC WITH COVERAGE TRYING TO EXPAND
INLAND. HOWEVER THE VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER HAS SO FAR PREVENTED
MUCH EXPANSION. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT ICING ON
ELEVATED SURFACES IN COASTAL NC BUT NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT
ICING. LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MIX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN.

GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...HELPING EXPAND THE PRECIP SHIELD. HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY BE
A CASE OF TOO LITTLE TOO LATE AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...WHICH
WILL STILL NOT BE A LOT...IS LIKELY TO END UP FALLING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN AREAS FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL BE
WELL UNDER 0.10 INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RECORD LOWS TO BE SET SUNDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RECORD LOW HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON THE
UPWIND SIDE OF A SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBTLY INCREASING
THICKNESSES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO THE FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES
AROUND THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR SET TO INVADE THE AREA.

850MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE
EVENING...DROPPING AS LOW AS -12C SOUTHERN ZONES TO -15C NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING USUALLY CREATES HIGHS
BELOW GUIDANCE...DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...AND THUS THE MOS NUMBERS
OF THE MID 40S WELL SOUTH AND AROUND 40 NORTH ARE LIKELY TOO WARM.
INHERITED HAS UNDERCUT THESE VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 35 FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...TO ABOUT 42 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THESE LOW HIGHS
AND RAPID COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PERMIT NEAR RECORD LOWS BY
SUNDAY MORNING:

RECORD LOWS (YEAR)/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/18

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

THESE WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
WIND CHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND DRY-
ADIABATIC MIXING WILL KEEP WINDS UP ALL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN
FACT MAY BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAN DURING THE DAY. WINDS
OF AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WILL REMAIN GUSTY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL NOT
HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY YET...BUT EXPECT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

EVEN COLDER HIGHS ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION SHUTS
OFF...VERY SHALLOW MIXING AND THE COLD START WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
FREEZING FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S WELL SOUTH. RECORD-LOW
MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT FLORENCE (RECORD 44) BUT WILL LIKELY BE
MISSED AT WILMINGTON (RECORD 29). SUBTLY WARMER LOWS SUNDAY WILL
OCCUR THANKS TO SLOWLY DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING CLOUD
COVER...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES. EXPECT MINS SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DROP TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES...WARMEST AT THE SC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MS VLY. AHEAD OF THIS DEEP TROUGH...STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO PTYPE
ISSUES THIS TIME AROUND...BUT GOOD MOIST ADVECTION AND STRONG
FORCING SUPPORTS A HIGH QPF EVENT WHICH COULD ENHANCE OR PROLONG
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. TEMPS TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY RISE TO WELL
ABOVE CLIMO IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE
NORTH...WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COAST. BEHIND THIS LOW A QUICK
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT IT WILL TAKE A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO
DRIVE TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CURRENTLY KLBT IS THE TAF WITH THE MOST WINTRY MIX.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 1ST 3 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST THEN CLEAR OUT. CEILING AND SKY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH A FLIRT AT THE COAST WITH
SOME IFR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
PULLS AWAY ALL SITES SHOULD SWITCH TO IFR BETWEEN 02 AND 04 UTC.

A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BY MORNING SATURDAY AND
NORTHWEST WIND OF 12 TO 16 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUST
INCREASING AFTER 13 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...SEAS 1 TO 2 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING BUT NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A BIT.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DEVELOPING
LOW OFF THE COAST BECOMES MORE DEFINED. LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BACKING TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIOD WHERE WINDS COULD GUST INTO THE 20 KT
RANGE BUT BY EVENING GRADIENT WILL BE DECREASING AND WINDS/SEAS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR MORNING
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL CREATE CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...WITH
ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE. THESE ARE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS AND OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
EASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SUBTLE
INCREASE WILL BE NOTED VERY LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SEAS SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY BE 3-5 FT THANKS TO
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WIND WAVE...BUT WILL FALL TO 1-2 FT LATE
WITH A 10 SEC SE SWELL INCREASING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SE STATES...REMAINING WEST OF THE
WATERS...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15-25 KTS WHILE
VEERING FROM EAST TO SOUTH...AND THEN INCREASING EVEN FURTHER TO
20-25 KTS FROM THE SW THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE...ITS COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BUT WITH STILL
ELEVATED SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BUILD VERY RAPIDLY MONDAY FROM 1-2 FT
MONDAY MORNING TO 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POTENTIALLY AS
HIGH AS 10 FT TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS...BUT THE LONG FETCH AT LEAST PRESENTS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUCH HIGH SEAS. WAVES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE POOR
MARINE CONDITIONS WITH HEADLINES A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ISSUED YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-053-054.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...HAWKINS




000
FXUS62 KILM 121454
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
954 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TODAY SPREADING A LIGHT MIX
OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A
WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT BUT
PERSISTENT ECHOS OVER COASTAL NC WITH COVERAGE TRYING TO EXPAND
INLAND. HOWEVER THE VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER HAS SO FAR PREVENTED
MUCH EXPANSION. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT ICING ON
ELEVATED SURFACES IN COASTAL NC BUT NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT
ICING. LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MIX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN.

GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...HELPING EXPAND THE PRECIP SHIELD. HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY BE
A CASE OF TOO LITTLE TOO LATE AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...WHICH
WILL STILL NOT BE A LOT...IS LIKELY TO END UP FALLING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN AREAS FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL BE
WELL UNDER 0.10 INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RECORD LOWS TO BE SET SUNDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RECORD LOW HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON THE
UPWIND SIDE OF A SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBTLY INCREASING
THICKNESSES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO THE FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES
AROUND THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR SET TO INVADE THE AREA.

850MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE
EVENING...DROPPING AS LOW AS -12C SOUTHERN ZONES TO -15C NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING USUALLY CREATES HIGHS
BELOW GUIDANCE...DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...AND THUS THE MOS NUMBERS
OF THE MID 40S WELL SOUTH AND AROUND 40 NORTH ARE LIKELY TOO WARM.
INHERITED HAS UNDERCUT THESE VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 35 FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...TO ABOUT 42 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THESE LOW HIGHS
AND RAPID COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PERMIT NEAR RECORD LOWS BY
SUNDAY MORNING:

RECORD LOWS (YEAR)/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/18

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

THESE WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
WIND CHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND DRY-
ADIABATIC MIXING WILL KEEP WINDS UP ALL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN
FACT MAY BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAN DURING THE DAY. WINDS
OF AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WILL REMAIN GUSTY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL NOT
HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY YET...BUT EXPECT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

EVEN COLDER HIGHS ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION SHUTS
OFF...VERY SHALLOW MIXING AND THE COLD START WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
FREEZING FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S WELL SOUTH. RECORD-LOW
MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT FLORENCE (RECORD 44) BUT WILL LIKELY BE
MISSED AT WILMINGTON (RECORD 29). SUBTLY WARMER LOWS SUNDAY WILL
OCCUR THANKS TO SLOWLY DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING CLOUD
COVER...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES. EXPECT MINS SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DROP TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES...WARMEST AT THE SC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MS VLY. AHEAD OF THIS DEEP TROUGH...STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO PTYPE
ISSUES THIS TIME AROUND...BUT GOOD MOIST ADVECTION AND STRONG
FORCING SUPPORTS A HIGH QPF EVENT WHICH COULD ENHANCE OR PROLONG
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. TEMPS TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY RISE TO WELL
ABOVE CLIMO IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE
NORTH...WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COAST. BEHIND THIS LOW A QUICK
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT IT WILL TAKE A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO
DRIVE TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE PTYPE ISSUE FOR THE
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHEN OR IF A WINTRY MIX WILL
OCCUR AT 4 OF THE 5 TAF SITES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST IS AT KLBT.

FOR THE WINTRY MIX HAVE STARTED FORECAST WITH A FZRAPL FORECAST
AROUND 15 TO 16 UTC AT KFLO AND KLBT THEN TRENDED TO RAIN SEVERAL
HOURS LATER. AT THE COAST FORECAST IS NOW FOR ALL RAIN BEGINNING
AFTER 15 UTC.

ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR AROUND 23 UTC AND THEN VFR
AFTER 02 TO 03 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...SEAS 1 TO 2 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING BUT NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A BIT.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DEVELOPING
LOW OFF THE COAST BECOMES MORE DEFINED. LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BACKING TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIOD WHERE WINDS COULD GUST INTO THE 20 KT
RANGE BUT BY EVENING GRADIENT WILL BE DECREASING AND WINDS/SEAS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR MORNING
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL CREATE CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...WITH
ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE. THESE ARE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS AND OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
EASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SUBTLE
INCREASE WILL BE NOTED VERY LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SEAS SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY BE 3-5 FT THANKS TO
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WIND WAVE...BUT WILL FALL TO 1-2 FT LATE
WITH A 10 SEC SE SWELL INCREASING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SE STATES...REMAINING WEST OF THE
WATERS...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15-25 KTS WHILE
VEERING FROM EAST TO SOUTH...AND THEN INCREASING EVEN FURTHER TO
20-25 KTS FROM THE SW THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE...ITS COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BUT WITH STILL
ELEVATED SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BUILD VERY RAPIDLY MONDAY FROM 1-2 FT
MONDAY MORNING TO 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POTENTIALLY AS
HIGH AS 10 FT TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS...BUT THE LONG FETCH AT LEAST PRESENTS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUCH HIGH SEAS. WAVES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE POOR
MARINE CONDITIONS WITH HEADLINES A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ISSUED YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-053-054.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK




000
FXUS62 KILM 121454
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
954 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TODAY SPREADING A LIGHT MIX
OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A
WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT BUT
PERSISTENT ECHOS OVER COASTAL NC WITH COVERAGE TRYING TO EXPAND
INLAND. HOWEVER THE VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER HAS SO FAR PREVENTED
MUCH EXPANSION. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT ICING ON
ELEVATED SURFACES IN COASTAL NC BUT NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT
ICING. LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MIX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN.

GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...HELPING EXPAND THE PRECIP SHIELD. HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY BE
A CASE OF TOO LITTLE TOO LATE AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...WHICH
WILL STILL NOT BE A LOT...IS LIKELY TO END UP FALLING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN AREAS FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL BE
WELL UNDER 0.10 INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RECORD LOWS TO BE SET SUNDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RECORD LOW HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON THE
UPWIND SIDE OF A SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBTLY INCREASING
THICKNESSES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO THE FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES
AROUND THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR SET TO INVADE THE AREA.

850MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE
EVENING...DROPPING AS LOW AS -12C SOUTHERN ZONES TO -15C NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING USUALLY CREATES HIGHS
BELOW GUIDANCE...DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...AND THUS THE MOS NUMBERS
OF THE MID 40S WELL SOUTH AND AROUND 40 NORTH ARE LIKELY TOO WARM.
INHERITED HAS UNDERCUT THESE VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 35 FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...TO ABOUT 42 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THESE LOW HIGHS
AND RAPID COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PERMIT NEAR RECORD LOWS BY
SUNDAY MORNING:

RECORD LOWS (YEAR)/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/18

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

THESE WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
WIND CHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND DRY-
ADIABATIC MIXING WILL KEEP WINDS UP ALL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN
FACT MAY BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAN DURING THE DAY. WINDS
OF AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WILL REMAIN GUSTY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL NOT
HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY YET...BUT EXPECT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

EVEN COLDER HIGHS ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION SHUTS
OFF...VERY SHALLOW MIXING AND THE COLD START WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
FREEZING FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S WELL SOUTH. RECORD-LOW
MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT FLORENCE (RECORD 44) BUT WILL LIKELY BE
MISSED AT WILMINGTON (RECORD 29). SUBTLY WARMER LOWS SUNDAY WILL
OCCUR THANKS TO SLOWLY DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING CLOUD
COVER...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES. EXPECT MINS SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DROP TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES...WARMEST AT THE SC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MS VLY. AHEAD OF THIS DEEP TROUGH...STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO PTYPE
ISSUES THIS TIME AROUND...BUT GOOD MOIST ADVECTION AND STRONG
FORCING SUPPORTS A HIGH QPF EVENT WHICH COULD ENHANCE OR PROLONG
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. TEMPS TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY RISE TO WELL
ABOVE CLIMO IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE
NORTH...WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COAST. BEHIND THIS LOW A QUICK
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT IT WILL TAKE A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO
DRIVE TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE PTYPE ISSUE FOR THE
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHEN OR IF A WINTRY MIX WILL
OCCUR AT 4 OF THE 5 TAF SITES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST IS AT KLBT.

FOR THE WINTRY MIX HAVE STARTED FORECAST WITH A FZRAPL FORECAST
AROUND 15 TO 16 UTC AT KFLO AND KLBT THEN TRENDED TO RAIN SEVERAL
HOURS LATER. AT THE COAST FORECAST IS NOW FOR ALL RAIN BEGINNING
AFTER 15 UTC.

ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR AROUND 23 UTC AND THEN VFR
AFTER 02 TO 03 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...SEAS 1 TO 2 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING BUT NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A BIT.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DEVELOPING
LOW OFF THE COAST BECOMES MORE DEFINED. LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BACKING TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIOD WHERE WINDS COULD GUST INTO THE 20 KT
RANGE BUT BY EVENING GRADIENT WILL BE DECREASING AND WINDS/SEAS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR MORNING
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL CREATE CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...WITH
ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE. THESE ARE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS AND OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
EASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SUBTLE
INCREASE WILL BE NOTED VERY LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SEAS SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY BE 3-5 FT THANKS TO
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WIND WAVE...BUT WILL FALL TO 1-2 FT LATE
WITH A 10 SEC SE SWELL INCREASING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SE STATES...REMAINING WEST OF THE
WATERS...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15-25 KTS WHILE
VEERING FROM EAST TO SOUTH...AND THEN INCREASING EVEN FURTHER TO
20-25 KTS FROM THE SW THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE...ITS COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BUT WITH STILL
ELEVATED SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BUILD VERY RAPIDLY MONDAY FROM 1-2 FT
MONDAY MORNING TO 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POTENTIALLY AS
HIGH AS 10 FT TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS...BUT THE LONG FETCH AT LEAST PRESENTS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUCH HIGH SEAS. WAVES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE POOR
MARINE CONDITIONS WITH HEADLINES A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ISSUED YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-053-054.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK





000
FXUS62 KILM 121454
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
954 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TODAY SPREADING A LIGHT MIX
OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A
WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT BUT
PERSISTENT ECHOS OVER COASTAL NC WITH COVERAGE TRYING TO EXPAND
INLAND. HOWEVER THE VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER HAS SO FAR PREVENTED
MUCH EXPANSION. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT ICING ON
ELEVATED SURFACES IN COASTAL NC BUT NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT
ICING. LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MIX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN.

GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...HELPING EXPAND THE PRECIP SHIELD. HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY BE
A CASE OF TOO LITTLE TOO LATE AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...WHICH
WILL STILL NOT BE A LOT...IS LIKELY TO END UP FALLING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN AREAS FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL BE
WELL UNDER 0.10 INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RECORD LOWS TO BE SET SUNDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RECORD LOW HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON THE
UPWIND SIDE OF A SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBTLY INCREASING
THICKNESSES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO THE FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES
AROUND THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR SET TO INVADE THE AREA.

850MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE
EVENING...DROPPING AS LOW AS -12C SOUTHERN ZONES TO -15C NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING USUALLY CREATES HIGHS
BELOW GUIDANCE...DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...AND THUS THE MOS NUMBERS
OF THE MID 40S WELL SOUTH AND AROUND 40 NORTH ARE LIKELY TOO WARM.
INHERITED HAS UNDERCUT THESE VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 35 FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...TO ABOUT 42 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THESE LOW HIGHS
AND RAPID COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PERMIT NEAR RECORD LOWS BY
SUNDAY MORNING:

RECORD LOWS (YEAR)/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/18

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

THESE WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
WIND CHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND DRY-
ADIABATIC MIXING WILL KEEP WINDS UP ALL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN
FACT MAY BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAN DURING THE DAY. WINDS
OF AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WILL REMAIN GUSTY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL NOT
HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY YET...BUT EXPECT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

EVEN COLDER HIGHS ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION SHUTS
OFF...VERY SHALLOW MIXING AND THE COLD START WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
FREEZING FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S WELL SOUTH. RECORD-LOW
MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT FLORENCE (RECORD 44) BUT WILL LIKELY BE
MISSED AT WILMINGTON (RECORD 29). SUBTLY WARMER LOWS SUNDAY WILL
OCCUR THANKS TO SLOWLY DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING CLOUD
COVER...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES. EXPECT MINS SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DROP TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES...WARMEST AT THE SC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MS VLY. AHEAD OF THIS DEEP TROUGH...STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO PTYPE
ISSUES THIS TIME AROUND...BUT GOOD MOIST ADVECTION AND STRONG
FORCING SUPPORTS A HIGH QPF EVENT WHICH COULD ENHANCE OR PROLONG
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. TEMPS TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY RISE TO WELL
ABOVE CLIMO IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE
NORTH...WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COAST. BEHIND THIS LOW A QUICK
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT IT WILL TAKE A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO
DRIVE TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE PTYPE ISSUE FOR THE
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHEN OR IF A WINTRY MIX WILL
OCCUR AT 4 OF THE 5 TAF SITES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST IS AT KLBT.

FOR THE WINTRY MIX HAVE STARTED FORECAST WITH A FZRAPL FORECAST
AROUND 15 TO 16 UTC AT KFLO AND KLBT THEN TRENDED TO RAIN SEVERAL
HOURS LATER. AT THE COAST FORECAST IS NOW FOR ALL RAIN BEGINNING
AFTER 15 UTC.

ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR AROUND 23 UTC AND THEN VFR
AFTER 02 TO 03 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...SEAS 1 TO 2 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING BUT NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A BIT.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DEVELOPING
LOW OFF THE COAST BECOMES MORE DEFINED. LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BACKING TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIOD WHERE WINDS COULD GUST INTO THE 20 KT
RANGE BUT BY EVENING GRADIENT WILL BE DECREASING AND WINDS/SEAS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR MORNING
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL CREATE CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...WITH
ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE. THESE ARE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS AND OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
EASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SUBTLE
INCREASE WILL BE NOTED VERY LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SEAS SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY BE 3-5 FT THANKS TO
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WIND WAVE...BUT WILL FALL TO 1-2 FT LATE
WITH A 10 SEC SE SWELL INCREASING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SE STATES...REMAINING WEST OF THE
WATERS...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15-25 KTS WHILE
VEERING FROM EAST TO SOUTH...AND THEN INCREASING EVEN FURTHER TO
20-25 KTS FROM THE SW THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE...ITS COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BUT WITH STILL
ELEVATED SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BUILD VERY RAPIDLY MONDAY FROM 1-2 FT
MONDAY MORNING TO 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POTENTIALLY AS
HIGH AS 10 FT TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS...BUT THE LONG FETCH AT LEAST PRESENTS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUCH HIGH SEAS. WAVES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE POOR
MARINE CONDITIONS WITH HEADLINES A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ISSUED YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-053-054.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK





000
FXUS62 KILM 121143
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
643 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TODAY SPREADING A LIGHT MIX
OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A
WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
OR ADVISORY WITH THE LATEST ISSUANCE. PRECIP HAS YET TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WE ARE SEEING A LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK
OVER THE PAST HOUR. BEST SHOT AT WINTRY PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO BE
OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW AND TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND FREEZING. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW
FREEZING...MAKING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

CONFIDENCE THAT CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL PAN OUT HAVE
DECREASED IN THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO
CANCEL IT OUTRIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE...THE AIRMASS IS NOT AS COLD AS ANTICIPATED AND INDEED WE
ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTH. BENEATH THIS CLOUD COVER WE HAVE
SEEN SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE JUMPS...AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES OR SO
IN A FEW PLACES. MYR IS NOW UP TO 48 DEGREES AND ILM IS NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AT 34. MEANWHILE...NORTH OF THE CLOUD DECK...TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE QUANDARY IS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAIN NEAREST TO THE COAST CLOSEST IN VICINITY TO
THE FORECAST OFFSHORE LOW...WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
THE HIGHEST. COMPOUNDING THE UNCERTAINTY IS THAT THE OFFSHORE LOW
HAS YET TO FORM ALONG ITS ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
REGIONAL OBS AND RADAR LOOPS ALSO HAVE YET TO SHOW PRECIPITATION
FORMING.

SO...GIVEN THAT THE ADVISORY IS ALREADY OUT...I AM STICKING WITH A
WORST-CASE SCENARIO WHILE PARING BACK EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY AND CUTTING BACK ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING IN ANY LOCATION AND THAT
THE DYNAMICAL FORCES INVOLVED IN PRECIPITATION WILL COOL THE AIRMASS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS MORNING. I AM LIMITING
ACCUMULATIONS TO A TRACE...WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. MODEL PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SNOW SO WILL
LEAVE MENTION OF SUCH OUT OF THE FORECAST. I EXPECT THE EVENT TO
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AROUND NOON.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RECORD LOWS TO BE SET SUNDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RECORD LOW HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON THE
UPWIND SIDE OF A SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBTLY INCREASING
THICKNESSES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO THE FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES
AROUND THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR SET TO INVADE THE AREA.

850MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE
EVENING...DROPPING AS LOW AS -12C SOUTHERN ZONES TO -15C NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING USUALLY CREATES HIGHS
BELOW GUIDANCE...DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...AND THUS THE MOS NUMBERS
OF THE MID 40S WELL SOUTH AND AROUND 40 NORTH ARE LIKELY TOO WARM.
INHERITED HAS UNDERCUT THESE VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 35 FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...TO ABOUT 42 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THESE LOW HIGHS
AND RAPID COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PERMIT NEAR RECORD LOWS BY
SUNDAY MORNING:

RECORD LOWS (YEAR)/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/18

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

THESE WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
WIND CHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND DRY-
ADIABATIC MIXING WILL KEEP WINDS UP ALL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN
FACT MAY BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAN DURING THE DAY. WINDS
OF AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WILL REMAIN GUSTY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL NOT
HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY YET...BUT EXPECT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

EVEN COLDER HIGHS ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION SHUTS
OFF...VERY SHALLOW MIXING AND THE COLD START WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
FREEZING FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S WELL SOUTH. RECORD-LOW
MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT FLORENCE (RECORD 44) BUT WILL LIKELY BE
MISSED AT WILMINGTON (RECORD 29). SUBTLY WARMER LOWS SUNDAY WILL
OCCUR THANKS TO SLOWLY DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING CLOUD
COVER...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES. EXPECT MINS SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DROP TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES...WARMEST AT THE SC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MS VLY. AHEAD OF THIS DEEP TROUGH...STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO PTYPE
ISSUES THIS TIME AROUND...BUT GOOD MOIST ADVECTION AND STRONG
FORCING SUPPORTS A HIGH QPF EVENT WHICH COULD ENHANCE OR PROLONG
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. TEMPS TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY RISE TO WELL
ABOVE CLIMO IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE
NORTH...WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COAST. BEHIND THIS LOW A QUICK
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT IT WILL TAKE A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO
DRIVE TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE PTYPE ISSUE FOR THE
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHEN OR IF A WINTRY MIX WILL
OCCUR AT 4 OF THE 5 TAF SITES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST IS AT KLBT.

FOR THE WINTRY MIX HAVE STARTED FORECAST WITH A FZRAPL FORECAST
AROUND 15 TO 16 UTC AT KFLO AND KLBT THEN TRENDED TO RAIN SEVERAL
HOURS LATER. AT THE COAST FORECAST IS NOW FOR ALL RAIN BEGINNING
AFTER 15 UTC.

ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR AROUND 23 UTC AND THEN VFR
AFTER 02 TO 03 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS OF RIGHT AROUND 2 FT
WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO
CHANGES MADE WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY WILL BACK TO THE NW
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY AROUND DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY AS AN OFFSHORE LOW EAST OF THE WATERS DEEPENS AND MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 2 TO 4 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL CREATE CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...WITH
ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE. THESE ARE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS AND OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
EASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SUBTLE
INCREASE WILL BE NOTED VERY LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SEAS SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY BE 3-5 FT THANKS TO
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WIND WAVE...BUT WILL FALL TO 1-2 FT LATE
WITH A 10 SEC SE SWELL INCREASING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SE STATES...REMAINING WEST OF THE
WATERS...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15-25 KTS WHILE
VEERING FROM EAST TO SOUTH...AND THEN INCREASING EVEN FURTHER TO
20-25 KTS FROM THE SW THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE...ITS COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BUT WITH STILL
ELEVATED SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BUILD VERY RAPIDLY MONDAY FROM 1-2 FT
MONDAY MORNING TO 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POTENTIALLY AS
HIGH AS 10 FT TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS...BUT THE LONG FETCH AT LEAST PRESENTS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUCH HIGH SEAS. WAVES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE POOR
MARINE CONDITIONS WITH HEADLINES A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ISSUED YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-053-054.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DRH
MARINE...REK/JDW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK





000
FXUS62 KILM 121143
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
643 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TODAY SPREADING A LIGHT MIX
OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A
WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
OR ADVISORY WITH THE LATEST ISSUANCE. PRECIP HAS YET TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WE ARE SEEING A LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK
OVER THE PAST HOUR. BEST SHOT AT WINTRY PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO BE
OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW AND TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND FREEZING. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW
FREEZING...MAKING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

CONFIDENCE THAT CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL PAN OUT HAVE
DECREASED IN THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO
CANCEL IT OUTRIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE...THE AIRMASS IS NOT AS COLD AS ANTICIPATED AND INDEED WE
ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTH. BENEATH THIS CLOUD COVER WE HAVE
SEEN SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE JUMPS...AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES OR SO
IN A FEW PLACES. MYR IS NOW UP TO 48 DEGREES AND ILM IS NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AT 34. MEANWHILE...NORTH OF THE CLOUD DECK...TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE QUANDARY IS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAIN NEAREST TO THE COAST CLOSEST IN VICINITY TO
THE FORECAST OFFSHORE LOW...WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
THE HIGHEST. COMPOUNDING THE UNCERTAINTY IS THAT THE OFFSHORE LOW
HAS YET TO FORM ALONG ITS ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
REGIONAL OBS AND RADAR LOOPS ALSO HAVE YET TO SHOW PRECIPITATION
FORMING.

SO...GIVEN THAT THE ADVISORY IS ALREADY OUT...I AM STICKING WITH A
WORST-CASE SCENARIO WHILE PARING BACK EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY AND CUTTING BACK ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING IN ANY LOCATION AND THAT
THE DYNAMICAL FORCES INVOLVED IN PRECIPITATION WILL COOL THE AIRMASS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS MORNING. I AM LIMITING
ACCUMULATIONS TO A TRACE...WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. MODEL PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SNOW SO WILL
LEAVE MENTION OF SUCH OUT OF THE FORECAST. I EXPECT THE EVENT TO
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AROUND NOON.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RECORD LOWS TO BE SET SUNDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RECORD LOW HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON THE
UPWIND SIDE OF A SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBTLY INCREASING
THICKNESSES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO THE FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES
AROUND THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR SET TO INVADE THE AREA.

850MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE
EVENING...DROPPING AS LOW AS -12C SOUTHERN ZONES TO -15C NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING USUALLY CREATES HIGHS
BELOW GUIDANCE...DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...AND THUS THE MOS NUMBERS
OF THE MID 40S WELL SOUTH AND AROUND 40 NORTH ARE LIKELY TOO WARM.
INHERITED HAS UNDERCUT THESE VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 35 FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...TO ABOUT 42 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THESE LOW HIGHS
AND RAPID COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PERMIT NEAR RECORD LOWS BY
SUNDAY MORNING:

RECORD LOWS (YEAR)/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/18

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

THESE WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
WIND CHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND DRY-
ADIABATIC MIXING WILL KEEP WINDS UP ALL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN
FACT MAY BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAN DURING THE DAY. WINDS
OF AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WILL REMAIN GUSTY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL NOT
HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY YET...BUT EXPECT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

EVEN COLDER HIGHS ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION SHUTS
OFF...VERY SHALLOW MIXING AND THE COLD START WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
FREEZING FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S WELL SOUTH. RECORD-LOW
MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT FLORENCE (RECORD 44) BUT WILL LIKELY BE
MISSED AT WILMINGTON (RECORD 29). SUBTLY WARMER LOWS SUNDAY WILL
OCCUR THANKS TO SLOWLY DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING CLOUD
COVER...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES. EXPECT MINS SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DROP TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES...WARMEST AT THE SC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MS VLY. AHEAD OF THIS DEEP TROUGH...STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO PTYPE
ISSUES THIS TIME AROUND...BUT GOOD MOIST ADVECTION AND STRONG
FORCING SUPPORTS A HIGH QPF EVENT WHICH COULD ENHANCE OR PROLONG
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. TEMPS TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY RISE TO WELL
ABOVE CLIMO IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE
NORTH...WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COAST. BEHIND THIS LOW A QUICK
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT IT WILL TAKE A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO
DRIVE TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE PTYPE ISSUE FOR THE
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHEN OR IF A WINTRY MIX WILL
OCCUR AT 4 OF THE 5 TAF SITES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST IS AT KLBT.

FOR THE WINTRY MIX HAVE STARTED FORECAST WITH A FZRAPL FORECAST
AROUND 15 TO 16 UTC AT KFLO AND KLBT THEN TRENDED TO RAIN SEVERAL
HOURS LATER. AT THE COAST FORECAST IS NOW FOR ALL RAIN BEGINNING
AFTER 15 UTC.

ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR AROUND 23 UTC AND THEN VFR
AFTER 02 TO 03 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS OF RIGHT AROUND 2 FT
WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO
CHANGES MADE WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY WILL BACK TO THE NW
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY AROUND DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY AS AN OFFSHORE LOW EAST OF THE WATERS DEEPENS AND MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 2 TO 4 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL CREATE CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...WITH
ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE. THESE ARE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS AND OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
EASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SUBTLE
INCREASE WILL BE NOTED VERY LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SEAS SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY BE 3-5 FT THANKS TO
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WIND WAVE...BUT WILL FALL TO 1-2 FT LATE
WITH A 10 SEC SE SWELL INCREASING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SE STATES...REMAINING WEST OF THE
WATERS...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15-25 KTS WHILE
VEERING FROM EAST TO SOUTH...AND THEN INCREASING EVEN FURTHER TO
20-25 KTS FROM THE SW THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE...ITS COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BUT WITH STILL
ELEVATED SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BUILD VERY RAPIDLY MONDAY FROM 1-2 FT
MONDAY MORNING TO 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POTENTIALLY AS
HIGH AS 10 FT TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS...BUT THE LONG FETCH AT LEAST PRESENTS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUCH HIGH SEAS. WAVES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE POOR
MARINE CONDITIONS WITH HEADLINES A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ISSUED YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-053-054.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DRH
MARINE...REK/JDW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK





000
FXUS62 KILM 120845
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
345 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TODAY SPREADING A LIGHT MIX
OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A
WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL
VALUES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE THAT CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL PAN OUT HAVE DECREASED IN THESE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO CANCEL IT OUTRIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE
IS THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...THE AIRMASS IS NOT AS COLD AS
ANTICIPATED AND INDEED WE ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
FREEZING AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTH.
BENEATH THIS CLOUD COVER WE HAVE SEEN SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE
JUMPS...AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES OR SO IN A FEW PLACES. MYR IS NOW UP
TO 48 DEGREES AND ILM IS NOW ABOVE FREEZING AT 34.
MEANWHILE...NORTH OF THE CLOUD DECK...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING. THE QUANDARY IS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAIN NEAREST TO THE COAST CLOSEST IN VICINITY TO THE FORECAST
OFFSHORE LOW...WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST.
COMPOUNDING THE UNCERTAINTY IS THAT THE OFFSHORE LOW HAS YET TO
FORM ALONG ITS ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. REGIONAL
OBS AND RADAR LOOPS ALSO HAVE YET TO SHOW PRECIPITATION FORMING.

SO...GIVEN THAT THE ADVISORY IS ALREADY OUT...I AM STICKING WITH A
WORST-CASE SCENARIO WHILE PARING BACK EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY AND CUTTING BACK ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING IN ANY LOCATION AND THAT
THE DYNAMICAL FORCES INVOLVED IN PRECIPITATION WILL COOL THE AIRMASS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS MORNING. I AM LIMITING
ACCUMULATIONS TO A TRACE...WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. MODEL PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SNOW SO WILL
LEAVE MENTION OF SUCH OUT OF THE FORECAST. I EXPECT THE EVENT TO
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AROUND NOON.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RECORD LOWS TO BE SET SUNDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RECORD LOW HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON THE
UPWIND SIDE OF A SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBTLY INCREASING
THICKNESSES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO THE FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES
AROUND THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR SET TO INVADE THE AREA.

850MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE
EVENING...DROPPING AS LOW AS -12C SOUTHERN ZONES TO -15C NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING USUALLY CREATES HIGHS
BELOW GUIDANCE...DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...AND THUS THE MOS NUMBERS
OF THE MID 40S WELL SOUTH AND AROUND 40 NORTH ARE LIKELY TOO WARM.
INHERITED HAS UNDERCUT THESE VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 35 FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...TO ABOUT 42 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THESE LOW HIGHS
AND RAPID COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PERMIT NEAR RECORD LOWS BY
SUNDAY MORNING:

RECORD LOWS (YEAR)/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/18

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/18

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

THESE WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
WIND CHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND DRY-
ADIABATIC MIXING WILL KEEP WINDS UP ALL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN
FACT MAY BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAN DURING THE DAY. WINDS
OF AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WILL REMAIN GUSTY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL NOT
HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY YET...BUT EXPECT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

EVEN COLDER HIGHS ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION SHUTS
OFF...VERY SHALLOW MIXING AND THE COLD START WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
FREEZING FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S WELL SOUTH. RECORD-LOW
MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT FLORENCE (RECORD 44) BUT WILL LIKELY BE
MISSED AT WILMINGTON (RECORD 29). SUBTLY WARMER LOWS SUNDAY WILL
OCCUR THANKS TO SLOWLY DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING CLOUD
COVER...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES. EXPECT MINS SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DROP TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES...WARMEST AT THE SC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MS VLY. AHEAD OF THIS DEEP TROUGH...STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO PTYPE
ISSUES THIS TIME AROUND...BUT GOOD MOIST ADVECTION AND STRONG
FORCING SUPPORTS A HIGH QPF EVENT WHICH COULD ENHANCE OR PROLONG
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. TEMPS TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY RISE TO WELL
ABOVE CLIMO IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE
NORTH...WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COAST. BEHIND THIS LOW A QUICK
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT IT WILL TAKE A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO
DRIVE TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
MVFR/IFR ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG.

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BKN/OVC MID CLOUDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NEAR THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY. AS A RESULT
WILL SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/RAIN IN THE MORNING HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS WILL CREATE MVFR. AS TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RISE FROM THE COAST TO THE INLAND AREAS...WILL SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. MAY SEE A FEW HOURS LINGERING OF WINTRY
PRECIP INLAND. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO
HAVE CHANGED OVER TO RAIN CONTINUING WITH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THUS...EXPECT
MVFR/IFR WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AOB 10 KTS. TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY WILL BACK
TO THE NW TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY AROUND DAYBREAK
ON SATURDAY AS AN OFFSHORE LOW EAST OF THE WATERS DEEPENS AND
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL CREATE CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...WITH
ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE. THESE ARE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS AND OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
EASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SUBTLE
INCREASE WILL BE NOTED VERY LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SEAS SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY BE 3-5 FT THANKS TO
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WIND WAVE...BUT WILL FALL TO 1-2 FT LATE
WITH A 10 SEC SE SWELL INCREASING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SE STATES...REMAINING WEST OF THE
WATERS...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15-25 KTS WHILE
VEERING FROM EAST TO SOUTH...AND THEN INCREASING EVEN FURTHER TO
20-25 KTS FROM THE SW THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE...ITS COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BUT WITH STILL
ELEVATED SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BUILD VERY RAPIDLY MONDAY FROM 1-2 FT
MONDAY MORNING TO 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POTENTIALLY AS
HIGH AS 10 FT TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS...BUT THE LONG FETCH AT LEAST PRESENTS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUCH HIGH SEAS. WAVES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE POOR
MARINE CONDITIONS WITH HEADLINES A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-053-054.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK
MARINE...REK/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 120535
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1235 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST LATE TONIGHT WILL
SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
THIS WEEKEND WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A WARMUP
WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL VALUES. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...STILL DIGESTING 00Z MODEL RUN DATA FOR WHAT
IS GOING TO BE A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY. PRELIMINARY
INDICATIONS SHOW A WARMER AIRMASS THAN EXPECTED. IN ANY CASE...FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. A
MID CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID CLOUDS STARTING
TO DEVELOP FROM MONCKS CORNER TO ORANGEBURG SC WHERE ASOS/AWOS
REPORTS A CLOUD BASE OF 6000-7000 FEET AGL. THIS IS THE FIRST
EVIDENCE THAT LIFT IS INCREASING NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AL-GA.

CURRENTLY THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ARE COVERED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STALLED
FRONT ACROSS GA MARKS THE LOCATIONS WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AS A 500 MB DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE BETWEEN 3000-9000 FEET AGL
(EASILY TRACKED USING THE 285K OR 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES) AFTER
2 AM SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST BY DAYBREAK.

RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE GOOD WITH QUICKLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES THE RESULT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AFTER 2 AM COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHOULD ARREST THE FALLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...AND
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE ALONG THE COAST LATE AS MARITIME
INFLUENCE INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ONLY GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY ICE AS WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTRY
WEATHER...THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE STRUGGLES TO REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY MOIST. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COLDER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW AND ICE
PELLETS ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX IN...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.

RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER
TYPE BY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT ACROSS AN AREA FROM
BENNETTSVILLE...DILLON AND LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN...WHITEVILLE
AND WATHA...WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS GROUND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO RISE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING.

A RESPECTABLE WARM NOSE DOES DEVELOP...AROUND 6 DEG C. MODELS DO
SHOW A PRONOUNCED INVERSION THAT BECOMES SATURATED IN THE MORNING
AND REMAINS SO INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT 1K TO 3K FT. BELOW THAT
LAYER...THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER STUBBORNLY TRIES TO HOLD ONTO THE DRY
AIR. MOISTURE DOES EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT PERSIST AND DRYING DOES ALREADY BEGIN TO DEVELOP
FROM SW TO NE FRI AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SKIRTING TO OUR S TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW REACHES THE ATLANTIC...IT WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP MORE MOISTURE
AND WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LATER FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE LOW WILL BE ACCELERATING TO THE ENE AND
AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THUS...WE ARE EXPECTING A LOW
QPF EVENT.

TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND AS LOW AS THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW DEWPOINTS...WET
BULB TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THESE VALUES. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD HELP LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT EARLY TO MID MORNING
FRI WHEN TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST. AS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING...
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE MORE SLOWLY THEN
MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...NEAR
THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK LONGER. WE DO EXPECT ALL AREAS WILL
EVENTUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING...MID 30S N AND W AND INTO THE 40S
S AND PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

JUST A TRACE OF ICE CAN MAKE FOR VERY SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND
WALKWAYS. ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING A TRACE TO
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS
THERE MAY ALSO BE A COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET...UP TO A TENTH OR TWO.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT FRI NIGHT. THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO MINUS
15 DEG C BY EARLY SUN MORNING. IT WILL BE DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS IS WHEN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL
REACH THE AREA. HIGHS SAT WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AND WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE BLUSTERY NW WINDS...IT WILL
FEEL AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE 20S. THIS WILL BRING CONDITIONS TO
NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AS IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT WERE
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/19

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/17

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A VERY COLD DAY STARTING OFF WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NOT FAR EXCEEDING
THE FREEZING MARK ON SUNDAY AS 1035MB HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION.
FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES SPARING THE REGION FROM GROWING
QUITE AS COLD. A VERY SMALL WEDGE OF THE HIGH REMAINS ON MONDAY
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL BUT STILL FEEL THOSE STILL MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE TOO
QUICKLY. SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIP BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
FOR JUST RAIN. MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW DRIVING SURFACE CYCLONE AND COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE.
EASTERN U.S. TROUGHINESS FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE SO TEMPS LIKELY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
MVFR/IFR ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG.

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BKN/OVC MID CLOUDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NEAR THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY. AS A RESULT
WILL SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/RAIN IN THE MORNING HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS WILL CREATE MVFR. AS TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RISE FROM THE COAST TO THE INLAND AREAS...WILL SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. MAY SEE A FEW HOURS LINGERING OF WINTRY
PRECIP INLAND. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO
HAVE CHANGED OVER TO RAIN CONTINUING WITH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THUS...EXPECT
MVFR/IFR WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AOB 10 KTS. TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW 2 FT SEAS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH A LIGHT E TO NE WIND. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
NO CHANGES PLANNED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LIGHT AS
THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. BY MIDNIGHT NE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE GEORGIA
COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MORE DIRECTLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
FRIDAY. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET INSIDE 20 MILES WITH 4 FOOT
SEAS REPORTED OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT JUST S OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THEN MOVE INTO ATLANTIC AND ON AN ENE
TRAJECTORY...MOVING PROGRESSIVELY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING LATE IN
DAY AND FRI NIGHT. ENE WINDS AROUND 10 KT FRI MORNING WILL BACK TO
NE AND N AND THEN NW BY FRI EVE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KT BY SAT MORNING. NW TO NNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI AND TO
4 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT SAT AND SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...MODERATELY STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE TO START
THE PERIOD BETWEEN BIG STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LARGE, CHILLY
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS GRADIENT WILL EASE
RATHER QUICKLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED. VEERING EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE THOUGH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAKING
FOR A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST. MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGS MARKED WIND INCREASE AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS A LOCK AND THE NEED FOR A
GALE WARNING LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES YET ANOTHER
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER
DOWNTOWN TONIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ023-032-033-053-054.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ106>110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...99




000
FXUS62 KILM 120535
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1235 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST LATE TONIGHT WILL
SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
THIS WEEKEND WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A WARMUP
WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL VALUES. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...STILL DIGESTING 00Z MODEL RUN DATA FOR WHAT
IS GOING TO BE A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY. PRELIMINARY
INDICATIONS SHOW A WARMER AIRMASS THAN EXPECTED. IN ANY CASE...FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. A
MID CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID CLOUDS STARTING
TO DEVELOP FROM MONCKS CORNER TO ORANGEBURG SC WHERE ASOS/AWOS
REPORTS A CLOUD BASE OF 6000-7000 FEET AGL. THIS IS THE FIRST
EVIDENCE THAT LIFT IS INCREASING NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AL-GA.

CURRENTLY THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ARE COVERED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STALLED
FRONT ACROSS GA MARKS THE LOCATIONS WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AS A 500 MB DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE BETWEEN 3000-9000 FEET AGL
(EASILY TRACKED USING THE 285K OR 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES) AFTER
2 AM SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST BY DAYBREAK.

RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE GOOD WITH QUICKLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES THE RESULT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AFTER 2 AM COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHOULD ARREST THE FALLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...AND
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE ALONG THE COAST LATE AS MARITIME
INFLUENCE INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ONLY GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY ICE AS WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTRY
WEATHER...THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE STRUGGLES TO REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY MOIST. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COLDER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW AND ICE
PELLETS ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX IN...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.

RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER
TYPE BY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT ACROSS AN AREA FROM
BENNETTSVILLE...DILLON AND LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN...WHITEVILLE
AND WATHA...WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS GROUND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO RISE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING.

A RESPECTABLE WARM NOSE DOES DEVELOP...AROUND 6 DEG C. MODELS DO
SHOW A PRONOUNCED INVERSION THAT BECOMES SATURATED IN THE MORNING
AND REMAINS SO INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT 1K TO 3K FT. BELOW THAT
LAYER...THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER STUBBORNLY TRIES TO HOLD ONTO THE DRY
AIR. MOISTURE DOES EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT PERSIST AND DRYING DOES ALREADY BEGIN TO DEVELOP
FROM SW TO NE FRI AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SKIRTING TO OUR S TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW REACHES THE ATLANTIC...IT WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP MORE MOISTURE
AND WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LATER FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE LOW WILL BE ACCELERATING TO THE ENE AND
AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THUS...WE ARE EXPECTING A LOW
QPF EVENT.

TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND AS LOW AS THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW DEWPOINTS...WET
BULB TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THESE VALUES. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD HELP LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT EARLY TO MID MORNING
FRI WHEN TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST. AS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING...
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE MORE SLOWLY THEN
MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...NEAR
THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK LONGER. WE DO EXPECT ALL AREAS WILL
EVENTUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING...MID 30S N AND W AND INTO THE 40S
S AND PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

JUST A TRACE OF ICE CAN MAKE FOR VERY SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND
WALKWAYS. ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING A TRACE TO
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS
THERE MAY ALSO BE A COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET...UP TO A TENTH OR TWO.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT FRI NIGHT. THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO MINUS
15 DEG C BY EARLY SUN MORNING. IT WILL BE DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS IS WHEN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL
REACH THE AREA. HIGHS SAT WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AND WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE BLUSTERY NW WINDS...IT WILL
FEEL AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE 20S. THIS WILL BRING CONDITIONS TO
NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AS IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT WERE
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/19

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/17

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A VERY COLD DAY STARTING OFF WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NOT FAR EXCEEDING
THE FREEZING MARK ON SUNDAY AS 1035MB HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION.
FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES SPARING THE REGION FROM GROWING
QUITE AS COLD. A VERY SMALL WEDGE OF THE HIGH REMAINS ON MONDAY
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL BUT STILL FEEL THOSE STILL MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE TOO
QUICKLY. SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIP BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
FOR JUST RAIN. MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW DRIVING SURFACE CYCLONE AND COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE.
EASTERN U.S. TROUGHINESS FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE SO TEMPS LIKELY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
MVFR/IFR ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG.

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BKN/OVC MID CLOUDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NEAR THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY. AS A RESULT
WILL SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/RAIN IN THE MORNING HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS WILL CREATE MVFR. AS TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RISE FROM THE COAST TO THE INLAND AREAS...WILL SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. MAY SEE A FEW HOURS LINGERING OF WINTRY
PRECIP INLAND. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO
HAVE CHANGED OVER TO RAIN CONTINUING WITH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THUS...EXPECT
MVFR/IFR WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AOB 10 KTS. TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW 2 FT SEAS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH A LIGHT E TO NE WIND. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
NO CHANGES PLANNED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LIGHT AS
THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. BY MIDNIGHT NE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE GEORGIA
COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MORE DIRECTLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
FRIDAY. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET INSIDE 20 MILES WITH 4 FOOT
SEAS REPORTED OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT JUST S OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THEN MOVE INTO ATLANTIC AND ON AN ENE
TRAJECTORY...MOVING PROGRESSIVELY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING LATE IN
DAY AND FRI NIGHT. ENE WINDS AROUND 10 KT FRI MORNING WILL BACK TO
NE AND N AND THEN NW BY FRI EVE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KT BY SAT MORNING. NW TO NNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI AND TO
4 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT SAT AND SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...MODERATELY STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE TO START
THE PERIOD BETWEEN BIG STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LARGE, CHILLY
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS GRADIENT WILL EASE
RATHER QUICKLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED. VEERING EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE THOUGH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAKING
FOR A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST. MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGS MARKED WIND INCREASE AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS A LOCK AND THE NEED FOR A
GALE WARNING LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES YET ANOTHER
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER
DOWNTOWN TONIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ023-032-033-053-054.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ106>110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...99





000
FXUS62 KILM 120535
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1235 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST LATE TONIGHT WILL
SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
THIS WEEKEND WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A WARMUP
WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL VALUES. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...STILL DIGESTING 00Z MODEL RUN DATA FOR WHAT
IS GOING TO BE A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY. PRELIMINARY
INDICATIONS SHOW A WARMER AIRMASS THAN EXPECTED. IN ANY CASE...FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. A
MID CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID CLOUDS STARTING
TO DEVELOP FROM MONCKS CORNER TO ORANGEBURG SC WHERE ASOS/AWOS
REPORTS A CLOUD BASE OF 6000-7000 FEET AGL. THIS IS THE FIRST
EVIDENCE THAT LIFT IS INCREASING NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AL-GA.

CURRENTLY THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ARE COVERED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STALLED
FRONT ACROSS GA MARKS THE LOCATIONS WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AS A 500 MB DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE BETWEEN 3000-9000 FEET AGL
(EASILY TRACKED USING THE 285K OR 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES) AFTER
2 AM SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST BY DAYBREAK.

RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE GOOD WITH QUICKLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES THE RESULT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AFTER 2 AM COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHOULD ARREST THE FALLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...AND
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE ALONG THE COAST LATE AS MARITIME
INFLUENCE INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ONLY GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY ICE AS WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTRY
WEATHER...THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE STRUGGLES TO REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY MOIST. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COLDER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW AND ICE
PELLETS ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX IN...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.

RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER
TYPE BY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT ACROSS AN AREA FROM
BENNETTSVILLE...DILLON AND LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN...WHITEVILLE
AND WATHA...WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS GROUND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO RISE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING.

A RESPECTABLE WARM NOSE DOES DEVELOP...AROUND 6 DEG C. MODELS DO
SHOW A PRONOUNCED INVERSION THAT BECOMES SATURATED IN THE MORNING
AND REMAINS SO INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT 1K TO 3K FT. BELOW THAT
LAYER...THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER STUBBORNLY TRIES TO HOLD ONTO THE DRY
AIR. MOISTURE DOES EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT PERSIST AND DRYING DOES ALREADY BEGIN TO DEVELOP
FROM SW TO NE FRI AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SKIRTING TO OUR S TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW REACHES THE ATLANTIC...IT WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP MORE MOISTURE
AND WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LATER FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE LOW WILL BE ACCELERATING TO THE ENE AND
AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THUS...WE ARE EXPECTING A LOW
QPF EVENT.

TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND AS LOW AS THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW DEWPOINTS...WET
BULB TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THESE VALUES. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD HELP LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT EARLY TO MID MORNING
FRI WHEN TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST. AS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING...
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE MORE SLOWLY THEN
MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...NEAR
THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK LONGER. WE DO EXPECT ALL AREAS WILL
EVENTUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING...MID 30S N AND W AND INTO THE 40S
S AND PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

JUST A TRACE OF ICE CAN MAKE FOR VERY SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND
WALKWAYS. ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING A TRACE TO
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS
THERE MAY ALSO BE A COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET...UP TO A TENTH OR TWO.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT FRI NIGHT. THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO MINUS
15 DEG C BY EARLY SUN MORNING. IT WILL BE DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS IS WHEN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL
REACH THE AREA. HIGHS SAT WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AND WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE BLUSTERY NW WINDS...IT WILL
FEEL AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE 20S. THIS WILL BRING CONDITIONS TO
NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AS IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT WERE
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/19

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/17

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A VERY COLD DAY STARTING OFF WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NOT FAR EXCEEDING
THE FREEZING MARK ON SUNDAY AS 1035MB HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION.
FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES SPARING THE REGION FROM GROWING
QUITE AS COLD. A VERY SMALL WEDGE OF THE HIGH REMAINS ON MONDAY
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL BUT STILL FEEL THOSE STILL MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE TOO
QUICKLY. SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIP BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
FOR JUST RAIN. MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW DRIVING SURFACE CYCLONE AND COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE.
EASTERN U.S. TROUGHINESS FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE SO TEMPS LIKELY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
MVFR/IFR ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG.

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BKN/OVC MID CLOUDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NEAR THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY. AS A RESULT
WILL SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/RAIN IN THE MORNING HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS WILL CREATE MVFR. AS TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RISE FROM THE COAST TO THE INLAND AREAS...WILL SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. MAY SEE A FEW HOURS LINGERING OF WINTRY
PRECIP INLAND. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO
HAVE CHANGED OVER TO RAIN CONTINUING WITH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THUS...EXPECT
MVFR/IFR WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AOB 10 KTS. TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW 2 FT SEAS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH A LIGHT E TO NE WIND. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
NO CHANGES PLANNED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LIGHT AS
THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. BY MIDNIGHT NE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE GEORGIA
COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MORE DIRECTLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
FRIDAY. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET INSIDE 20 MILES WITH 4 FOOT
SEAS REPORTED OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT JUST S OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THEN MOVE INTO ATLANTIC AND ON AN ENE
TRAJECTORY...MOVING PROGRESSIVELY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING LATE IN
DAY AND FRI NIGHT. ENE WINDS AROUND 10 KT FRI MORNING WILL BACK TO
NE AND N AND THEN NW BY FRI EVE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KT BY SAT MORNING. NW TO NNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI AND TO
4 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT SAT AND SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...MODERATELY STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE TO START
THE PERIOD BETWEEN BIG STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LARGE, CHILLY
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS GRADIENT WILL EASE
RATHER QUICKLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED. VEERING EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE THOUGH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAKING
FOR A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST. MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGS MARKED WIND INCREASE AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS A LOCK AND THE NEED FOR A
GALE WARNING LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES YET ANOTHER
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER
DOWNTOWN TONIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ023-032-033-053-054.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
     EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ106>110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...99





000
FXUS62 KILM 120225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
925 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST LATE TONIGHT WILL
SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
THIS WEEKEND WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A WARMUP
WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL VALUES. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MID CLOUDS STARTING TO DEVELOP FROM MONCKS CORNER TO
ORANGEBURG SC WHERE ASOS/AWOS REPORTS A CLOUD BASE OF 6000-7000
FEET AGL. THIS IS THE FIRST EVIDENCE THAT LIFT IS INCREASING NORTH
OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AL-GA.

CURRENTLY THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ARE COVERED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STALLED
FRONT ACROSS GA MARKS THE LOCATIONS WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AS A 500 MB DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE BETWEEN 3000-9000 FEET AGL
(EASILY TRACKED USING THE 285K OR 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES) AFTER
2 AM SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST BY DAYBREAK.

RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE GOOD WITH QUICKLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES THE RESULT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AFTER 2 AM COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHOULD ARREST THE FALLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...AND
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE ALONG THE COAST LATE AS MARITIME
INFLUENCE INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ONLY GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY ICE AS WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTRY
WEATHER...THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE STRUGGLES TO REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY MOIST. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COLDER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW AND ICE
PELLETS ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX IN...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.

RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER
TYPE BY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT ACROSS AN AREA FROM
BENNETTSVILLE...DILLON AND LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN...WHITEVILLE
AND WATHA...WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS GROUND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO RISE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING.

A RESPECTABLE WARM NOSE DOES DEVELOP...AROUND 6 DEG C. MODELS DO
SHOW A PRONOUNCED INVERSION THAT BECOMES SATURATED IN THE MORNING
AND REMAINS SO INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT 1K TO 3K FT. BELOW THAT
LAYER...THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER STUBBORNLY TRIES TO HOLD ONTO THE DRY
AIR. MOISTURE DOES EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT PERSIST AND DRYING DOES ALREADY BEGIN TO DEVELOP
FROM SW TO NE FRI AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SKIRTING TO OUR S TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW REACHES THE ATLANTIC...IT WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP MORE MOISTURE
AND WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LATER FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE LOW WILL BE ACCELERATING TO THE ENE AND
AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THUS...WE ARE EXPECTING A LOW
QPF EVENT.

TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND AS LOW AS THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW DEWPOINTS...WET
BULB TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THESE VALUES. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD HELP LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT EARLY TO MID MORNING
FRI WHEN TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST. AS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING...
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE MORE SLOWLY THEN
MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...NEAR
THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK LONGER. WE DO EXPECT ALL AREAS WILL
EVENTUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING...MID 30S N AND W AND INTO THE 40S
S AND PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

JUST A TRACE OF ICE CAN MAKE FOR VERY SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND
WALKWAYS. ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING A TRACE TO
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS
THERE MAY ALSO BE A COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET...UP TO A TENTH OR TWO.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT FRI NIGHT. THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO MINUS
15 DEG C BY EARLY SUN MORNING. IT WILL BE DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS IS WHEN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL
REACH THE AREA. HIGHS SAT WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AND WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE BLUSTERY NW WINDS...IT WILL
FEEL AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE 20S. THIS WILL BRING CONDITIONS TO
NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AS IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT WERE
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/19

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/17

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A VERY COLD DAY STARTING OFF WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NOT FAR EXCEEDING
THE FREEZING MARK ON SUNDAY AS 1035MB HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION.
FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES SPARING THE REGION FROM GROWING
QUITE AS COLD. A VERY SMALL WEDGE OF THE HIGH REMAINS ON MONDAY
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL BUT STILL FEEL THOSE STILL MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE TOO
QUICKLY. SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIP BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
FOR JUST RAIN. MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW DRIVING SURFACE CYCLONE AND COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE.
EASTERN U.S. TROUGHINESS FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE SO TEMPS LIKELY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
MVFR/IFR ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG.

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NEAR THE AREA...WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY. AS A RESULT WILL SEE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/RAIN
IN THE MORNING HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS WILL
CREATE MVFR. AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE FROM THE COAST TO THE
INLAND AREAS...WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS LINGERING OF WINTRY PRECIP INLAND. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO HAVE CHANGED OVER TO RAIN CONTINUING
WITH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. THUS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AOB 10
KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD. BY MIDNIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MORE
DIRECTLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FRIDAY. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET
INSIDE 20 MILES WITH 4 FOOT SEAS REPORTED OUT AT THE FRYING PAN
SHOALS BUOY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT JUST S OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THEN MOVE INTO ATLANTIC AND ON AN ENE
TRAJECTORY...MOVING PROGRESSIVELY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING LATE IN
DAY AND FRI NIGHT. ENE WINDS AROUND 10 KT FRI MORNING WILL BACK TO
NE AND N AND THEN NW BY FRI EVE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KT BY SAT MORNING. NW TO NNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI AND TO
4 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT SAT AND SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...MODERATELY STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE TO START
THE PERIOD BETWEEN BIG STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LARGE, CHILLY
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS GRADIENT WILL EASE
RATHER QUICKLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED. VEERING EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE THOUGH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAKING
FOR A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST. MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGS MARKED WIND INCREASE AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS A LOCK AND THE NEED FOR A
GALE WARNING LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES YET ANOTHER
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER
DOWNTOWN TONIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ017-024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-053-054.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ106>110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 120225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
925 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST LATE TONIGHT WILL
SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
THIS WEEKEND WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A WARMUP
WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL VALUES. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MID CLOUDS STARTING TO DEVELOP FROM MONCKS CORNER TO
ORANGEBURG SC WHERE ASOS/AWOS REPORTS A CLOUD BASE OF 6000-7000
FEET AGL. THIS IS THE FIRST EVIDENCE THAT LIFT IS INCREASING NORTH
OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AL-GA.

CURRENTLY THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ARE COVERED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STALLED
FRONT ACROSS GA MARKS THE LOCATIONS WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AS A 500 MB DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE BETWEEN 3000-9000 FEET AGL
(EASILY TRACKED USING THE 285K OR 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES) AFTER
2 AM SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST BY DAYBREAK.

RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE GOOD WITH QUICKLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES THE RESULT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AFTER 2 AM COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHOULD ARREST THE FALLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...AND
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE ALONG THE COAST LATE AS MARITIME
INFLUENCE INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ONLY GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY ICE AS WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTRY
WEATHER...THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE STRUGGLES TO REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY MOIST. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COLDER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW AND ICE
PELLETS ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX IN...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.

RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER
TYPE BY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT ACROSS AN AREA FROM
BENNETTSVILLE...DILLON AND LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN...WHITEVILLE
AND WATHA...WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS GROUND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO RISE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING.

A RESPECTABLE WARM NOSE DOES DEVELOP...AROUND 6 DEG C. MODELS DO
SHOW A PRONOUNCED INVERSION THAT BECOMES SATURATED IN THE MORNING
AND REMAINS SO INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT 1K TO 3K FT. BELOW THAT
LAYER...THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER STUBBORNLY TRIES TO HOLD ONTO THE DRY
AIR. MOISTURE DOES EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT PERSIST AND DRYING DOES ALREADY BEGIN TO DEVELOP
FROM SW TO NE FRI AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SKIRTING TO OUR S TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW REACHES THE ATLANTIC...IT WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP MORE MOISTURE
AND WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LATER FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE LOW WILL BE ACCELERATING TO THE ENE AND
AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THUS...WE ARE EXPECTING A LOW
QPF EVENT.

TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND AS LOW AS THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW DEWPOINTS...WET
BULB TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THESE VALUES. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD HELP LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT EARLY TO MID MORNING
FRI WHEN TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST. AS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING...
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE MORE SLOWLY THEN
MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...NEAR
THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK LONGER. WE DO EXPECT ALL AREAS WILL
EVENTUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING...MID 30S N AND W AND INTO THE 40S
S AND PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

JUST A TRACE OF ICE CAN MAKE FOR VERY SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND
WALKWAYS. ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING A TRACE TO
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS
THERE MAY ALSO BE A COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET...UP TO A TENTH OR TWO.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT FRI NIGHT. THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO MINUS
15 DEG C BY EARLY SUN MORNING. IT WILL BE DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS IS WHEN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL
REACH THE AREA. HIGHS SAT WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AND WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE BLUSTERY NW WINDS...IT WILL
FEEL AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE 20S. THIS WILL BRING CONDITIONS TO
NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AS IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT WERE
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/19

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/17

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A VERY COLD DAY STARTING OFF WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NOT FAR EXCEEDING
THE FREEZING MARK ON SUNDAY AS 1035MB HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION.
FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES SPARING THE REGION FROM GROWING
QUITE AS COLD. A VERY SMALL WEDGE OF THE HIGH REMAINS ON MONDAY
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL BUT STILL FEEL THOSE STILL MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE TOO
QUICKLY. SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIP BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
FOR JUST RAIN. MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW DRIVING SURFACE CYCLONE AND COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE.
EASTERN U.S. TROUGHINESS FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE SO TEMPS LIKELY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
MVFR/IFR ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG.

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NEAR THE AREA...WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY. AS A RESULT WILL SEE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/RAIN
IN THE MORNING HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS WILL
CREATE MVFR. AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE FROM THE COAST TO THE
INLAND AREAS...WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS LINGERING OF WINTRY PRECIP INLAND. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO HAVE CHANGED OVER TO RAIN CONTINUING
WITH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. THUS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AOB 10
KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD. BY MIDNIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MORE
DIRECTLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FRIDAY. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET
INSIDE 20 MILES WITH 4 FOOT SEAS REPORTED OUT AT THE FRYING PAN
SHOALS BUOY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT JUST S OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THEN MOVE INTO ATLANTIC AND ON AN ENE
TRAJECTORY...MOVING PROGRESSIVELY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING LATE IN
DAY AND FRI NIGHT. ENE WINDS AROUND 10 KT FRI MORNING WILL BACK TO
NE AND N AND THEN NW BY FRI EVE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KT BY SAT MORNING. NW TO NNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI AND TO
4 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT SAT AND SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...MODERATELY STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE TO START
THE PERIOD BETWEEN BIG STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LARGE, CHILLY
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS GRADIENT WILL EASE
RATHER QUICKLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED. VEERING EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE THOUGH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAKING
FOR A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST. MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGS MARKED WIND INCREASE AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS A LOCK AND THE NEED FOR A
GALE WARNING LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES YET ANOTHER
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER
DOWNTOWN TONIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ017-024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-053-054.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ106>110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 112354
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
654 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST LATE TONIGHT WILL
SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
THIS WEEKEND WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A WARMUP
WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL VALUES. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE THE TRANSITION FROM THE
CURRENT DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS TO A MORE MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTING
NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING. THROUGH 6 AM PRECIP CHANCES ARE 10
PERCENT OR LESS WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING.

CURRENTLY THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ARE COVERED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MS-AL-GA. THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING AS A 500 MB DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT
INCREASING MOISTURE BETWEEN 3000-9000 FEET AGL (EASILY TRACKED
USING THE 285K OR 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES) AFTER 2 AM SHOULD
LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST BY DAYBREAK.

RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE GOOD WITH QUICKLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES THE RESULT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AFTER 2 AM COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHOULD ARREST THE FALLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...AND
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE ALONG THE COAST LATE AS MARITIME
INFLUENCE INCREASES. CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE FOCUSED MAINLY ON
SKY COVER...WINDS...AND TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ONLY GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY ICE AS WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTRY
WEATHER...THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE STRUGGLES TO REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY MOIST. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COLDER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW AND ICE
PELLETS ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX IN...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.

RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER
TYPE BY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT ACROSS AN AREA FROM
BENNETTSVILLE...DILLON AND LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN...WHITEVILLE
AND WATHA...WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS GROUND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO RISE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING.

A RESPECTABLE WARM NOSE DOES DEVELOP...AROUND 6 DEG C. MODELS DO
SHOW A PRONOUNCED INVERSION THAT BECOMES SATURATED IN THE MORNING
AND REMAINS SO INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT 1K TO 3K FT. BELOW THAT
LAYER...THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER STUBBORNLY TRIES TO HOLD ONTO THE DRY
AIR. MOISTURE DOES EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT PERSIST AND DRYING DOES ALREADY BEGIN TO DEVELOP
FROM SW TO NE FRI AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SKIRTING TO OUR S TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW REACHES THE ATLANTIC...IT WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP MORE MOISTURE
AND WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LATER FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE LOW WILL BE ACCELERATING TO THE ENE AND
AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THUS...WE ARE EXPECTING A LOW
QPF EVENT.

TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND AS LOW AS THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW DEWPOINTS...WET
BULB TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THESE VALUES. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD HELP LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT EARLY TO MID MORNING
FRI WHEN TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST. AS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING...
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE MORE SLOWLY THEN
MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...NEAR
THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK LONGER. WE DO EXPECT ALL AREAS WILL
EVENTUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING...MID 30S N AND W AND INTO THE 40S
S AND PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

JUST A TRACE OF ICE CAN MAKE FOR VERY SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND
WALKWAYS. ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING A TRACE TO
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS
THERE MAY ALSO BE A COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET...UP TO A TENTH OR TWO.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT FRI NIGHT. THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO MINUS
15 DEG C BY EARLY SUN MORNING. IT WILL BE DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS IS WHEN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL
REACH THE AREA. HIGHS SAT WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AND WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE BLUSTERY NW WINDS...IT WILL
FEEL AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE 20S. THIS WILL BRING CONDITIONS TO
NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AS IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT WERE
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/19

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/17

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A VERY COLD DAY STARTING OFF WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NOT FAR EXCEEDING
THE FREEZING MARK ON SUNDAY AS 1035MB HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION.
FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES SPARING THE REGION FROM GROWING
QUITE AS COLD. A VERY SMALL WEDGE OF THE HIGH REMAINS ON MONDAY
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL BUT STILL FEEL THOSE STILL MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE TOO
QUICKLY. SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIP BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
FOR JUST RAIN. MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW DRIVING SURFACE CYCLONE AND COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE.
EASTERN U.S. TROUGHINESS FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE SO TEMPS LIKELY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
MVFR/IFR ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG.

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NEAR THE AREA...WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY. AS A RESULT WILL SEE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/RAIN
IN THE MORNING HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS WILL
CREATE MVFR. AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE FROM THE COAST TO THE
INLAND AREAS...WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS LINGERING OF WINTRY PRECIP INLAND. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO HAVE CHANGED OVER TO RAIN CONTINUING
WITH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. THUS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AOB 10
KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. BY MIDNIGHT NE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE GEORGIA
COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MORE DIRECTLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
FRIDAY. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET INSIDE 20 MILES WITH 4 FOOT
SEAS REPORTED OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT JUST S OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THEN MOVE INTO ATLANTIC AND ON AN ENE
TRAJECTORY...MOVING PROGRESSIVELY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING LATE IN
DAY AND FRI NIGHT. ENE WINDS AROUND 10 KT FRI MORNING WILL BACK TO
NE AND N AND THEN NW BY FRI EVE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KT BY SAT MORNING. NW TO NNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI AND TO
4 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT SAT AND SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...MODERATELY STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE TO START
THE PERIOD BETWEEN BIG STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LARGE, CHILLY
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS GRADIENT WILL EASE
RATHER QUICKLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED. VEERING EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE THOUGH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAKING
FOR A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST. MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGS MARKED WIND INCREASE AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS A LOCK AND THE NEED FOR A
GALE WARNING LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES YET ANOTHER
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER
DOWNTOWN TONIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ017-024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-053-054.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ106>110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK





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