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000
FXUS62 KILM 281940
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
340 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...DOWNSLOPE WIND-FLOW IS WIDESPREAD AND SOMEWHAT
STRONG ACROSS THE AREA EVIDENCED BY ORIENTATION OF CLOUDS STREETS
IN VISIBLE ANIMATIONS AND THE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ALEE OF THE MTNS
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT RUNS NEARLY TO
THE SURFACE WITH A SW-WSW COMPONENT REPORTED AT GROUND STATIONS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LOW SURFACE CONVERGENCE
SO FAR IN THIS SLIGHT RISK REGIME.

A ZONE OF BURGEONING CUMULUS EXTENDED ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES TO CHARLESTON SC...CURLING NE ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...WITH DISCREET CELLS POPPING UP OVER THE SE NC AN
NE SC INTERIOR. STORM MOTION GENERALLY WEST TO EAST AT 25-30 MPH
WILL SET UP A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTM WINDS IF DEEP CONVECTION
CAN MATERIALIZE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE POP FORECASTS...REMAINING IN THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED CATEGORY.
A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY...
WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. FLO
COULD APPROACH A DAILY RECORD LOW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FOR REFERENCE...HERE ARE THE DAILY
RECORD LOWS FOR ILM AND FLO DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD:

WILMINGTON NC RECORD LOWS...DATING BACK TO 1874
JULY 30: 61F (1914)
JULY 31: 60F (1914)

FLORENCE SC RECORD LOWS...DATING BACK TO 1948
JULY 30: 63F (1997)
JULY 31: 62F (1997)

PWATS WILL FALL TO 1.0-1.2 INCHES BY MID WEEK...SO POPS WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE. GIVEN THAT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF OUR OCEAN TEMPS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
TO DEVELOP EITHER DAY...WHICH FURTHER LIMITS ANY PCPN CHANCES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...A DEEP 500MB TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RETROGRADING ONLY SLIGHTLY NEXT WKND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WARMING TO NEAR-SEASONABLE LEVELS SUN/MON. AT
THE SAME TIME...WHILE THU/FRI WILL LIKELY BE DRY THANKS TO W/SW
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE BETTER RAIN CHANCES. THE STALLED BOUNDARY
WELL OFFSHORE WILL PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS...MID-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING SURFACE
MOIST ADVECTION AS THE FRONT/TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE WILL CREATE MUCH
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES SAT/SUN/MON. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON THE TAIL END OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
MOVE IT TOWARDS THE COAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK...IT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR POSSIBLE
LOW DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WILL
CHANCES FOR FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH THE CONVECTION AS STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF AND
SKIES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH VEERING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MID EVENING FOR 15-20 KT SW WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS. AS A
COLD FRONT NEARS THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERALL BUT
THE TSTM THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED
TO GET A FIX ON RADAR EVEN IF HEADING OUT ON THE ICW. SEAS A MIX
OF S WAVES 3-4 FT AT 5-6 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-2 FT AT 8-9
SECONDS. SEAS WILL LESSEN TO 2-4 FT AND A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW AT
15 KT LOOKS TO OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL RELAX AND BECOME NORTHEAST AOB 10 KT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 3 FT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE
POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT WEAKENS. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WHEN WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY
BUT REMAIN AOB 10 KT. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 FT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL WAVER JUST
EAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK...BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE
COAST THU/FRI...E/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE THE RULE BOTH DAYS
OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SE AT LESS THAN 10
KTS ON SATURDAY THANKS TO THE WESTWARD ADVANCE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE SIMILARLY UNIFORM...2-3 FT THU/FRI WITH A NE
WIND WAVE DOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM...AND REMAINING 2-3 FT SATURDAY
BUT WITH AN INCREASING SE WIND WAVE AND GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/JDW/BJR









000
FXUS62 KILM 281940
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
340 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...DOWNSLOPE WIND-FLOW IS WIDESPREAD AND SOMEWHAT
STRONG ACROSS THE AREA EVIDENCED BY ORIENTATION OF CLOUDS STREETS
IN VISIBLE ANIMATIONS AND THE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ALEE OF THE MTNS
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT RUNS NEARLY TO
THE SURFACE WITH A SW-WSW COMPONENT REPORTED AT GROUND STATIONS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LOW SURFACE CONVERGENCE
SO FAR IN THIS SLIGHT RISK REGIME.

A ZONE OF BURGEONING CUMULUS EXTENDED ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES TO CHARLESTON SC...CURLING NE ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...WITH DISCREET CELLS POPPING UP OVER THE SE NC AN
NE SC INTERIOR. STORM MOTION GENERALLY WEST TO EAST AT 25-30 MPH
WILL SET UP A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTM WINDS IF DEEP CONVECTION
CAN MATERIALIZE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE POP FORECASTS...REMAINING IN THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED CATEGORY.
A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY...
WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. FLO
COULD APPROACH A DAILY RECORD LOW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FOR REFERENCE...HERE ARE THE DAILY
RECORD LOWS FOR ILM AND FLO DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD:

WILMINGTON NC RECORD LOWS...DATING BACK TO 1874
JULY 30: 61F (1914)
JULY 31: 60F (1914)

FLORENCE SC RECORD LOWS...DATING BACK TO 1948
JULY 30: 63F (1997)
JULY 31: 62F (1997)

PWATS WILL FALL TO 1.0-1.2 INCHES BY MID WEEK...SO POPS WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE. GIVEN THAT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF OUR OCEAN TEMPS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
TO DEVELOP EITHER DAY...WHICH FURTHER LIMITS ANY PCPN CHANCES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...A DEEP 500MB TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RETROGRADING ONLY SLIGHTLY NEXT WKND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WARMING TO NEAR-SEASONABLE LEVELS SUN/MON. AT
THE SAME TIME...WHILE THU/FRI WILL LIKELY BE DRY THANKS TO W/SW
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE BETTER RAIN CHANCES. THE STALLED BOUNDARY
WELL OFFSHORE WILL PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS...MID-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING SURFACE
MOIST ADVECTION AS THE FRONT/TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE WILL CREATE MUCH
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES SAT/SUN/MON. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON THE TAIL END OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
MOVE IT TOWARDS THE COAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK...IT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR POSSIBLE
LOW DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WILL
CHANCES FOR FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH THE CONVECTION AS STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF AND
SKIES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH VEERING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MID EVENING FOR 15-20 KT SW WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS. AS A
COLD FRONT NEARS THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERALL BUT
THE TSTM THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED
TO GET A FIX ON RADAR EVEN IF HEADING OUT ON THE ICW. SEAS A MIX
OF S WAVES 3-4 FT AT 5-6 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-2 FT AT 8-9
SECONDS. SEAS WILL LESSEN TO 2-4 FT AND A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW AT
15 KT LOOKS TO OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL RELAX AND BECOME NORTHEAST AOB 10 KT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 3 FT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE
POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT WEAKENS. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WHEN WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY
BUT REMAIN AOB 10 KT. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 FT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL WAVER JUST
EAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK...BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE
COAST THU/FRI...E/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE THE RULE BOTH DAYS
OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SE AT LESS THAN 10
KTS ON SATURDAY THANKS TO THE WESTWARD ADVANCE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE SIMILARLY UNIFORM...2-3 FT THU/FRI WITH A NE
WIND WAVE DOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM...AND REMAINING 2-3 FT SATURDAY
BUT WITH AN INCREASING SE WIND WAVE AND GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/JDW/BJR








000
FXUS62 KILM 281741
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
141 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE. DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF FRONT MUCH
OF THIS WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...MORNING CLOUD COVER HAMPERING OTHERWISE
RAPID MORNING TEMPERATURE CLIMBS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER IS THINNING AND SOON SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL RAMP UP.
H5 TEMPS HAVE DROPPED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND WILL REMAIN AROUND -7
DEGREES MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT
FOLLOW MAINLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STILL...THESE FACTORS COULD
BRING MORE OF A HAIL THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING ...AS HIGH SFC
CAPES AND UPPER COOLING OVERLAP. SPC RETAINS A SLIGHT RISK OVER
OUR AREA DUE TO GOOD FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING AND
UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED ROBUST BULK
SHEAR PARAMETERS. WITH INCREASING SUN...IGNITION OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO INTERTWINE IN THE MIX TO ADD
LOW-LEVEL BOOSTS SO THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM INITIATION.

STORM MOTION AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE PARAMETERS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...THROUGH A FORWARD MOTION CLOSE TO 30
MPH AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO INCREASE DOWNDRAFT POWER. ANYTIME
AFTER 18Z SEEMS FAIR GAME FOR DISCREET STRONG STORMS...THEN A MORE
ORGANIZED SQUALL OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITHIN THE MAIN VORT
SPOKE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SLATED LATE TONIGHT AND A WIND-SHIFT TO THE NORTH LOOKS
TO CLEAR THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SC FOR MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF 105-108 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WILL
CHANCES FOR FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH THE CONVECTION AS STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF AND
SKIES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH VEERING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR
SW-WSW WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
DURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER FROM WSW TO NW INITIALLY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE N TO
NNE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND FURTHER RELAX EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CFP.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES OR CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH DOMINATING PERIODS OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...DOUG/3






000
FXUS62 KILM 281741
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
141 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE. DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF FRONT MUCH
OF THIS WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...MORNING CLOUD COVER HAMPERING OTHERWISE
RAPID MORNING TEMPERATURE CLIMBS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER IS THINNING AND SOON SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL RAMP UP.
H5 TEMPS HAVE DROPPED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND WILL REMAIN AROUND -7
DEGREES MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT
FOLLOW MAINLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STILL...THESE FACTORS COULD
BRING MORE OF A HAIL THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING ...AS HIGH SFC
CAPES AND UPPER COOLING OVERLAP. SPC RETAINS A SLIGHT RISK OVER
OUR AREA DUE TO GOOD FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING AND
UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED ROBUST BULK
SHEAR PARAMETERS. WITH INCREASING SUN...IGNITION OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO INTERTWINE IN THE MIX TO ADD
LOW-LEVEL BOOSTS SO THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM INITIATION.

STORM MOTION AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE PARAMETERS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...THROUGH A FORWARD MOTION CLOSE TO 30
MPH AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO INCREASE DOWNDRAFT POWER. ANYTIME
AFTER 18Z SEEMS FAIR GAME FOR DISCREET STRONG STORMS...THEN A MORE
ORGANIZED SQUALL OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITHIN THE MAIN VORT
SPOKE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SLATED LATE TONIGHT AND A WIND-SHIFT TO THE NORTH LOOKS
TO CLEAR THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SC FOR MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF 105-108 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WILL
CHANCES FOR FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH THE CONVECTION AS STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF AND
SKIES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH VEERING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR
SW-WSW WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
DURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER FROM WSW TO NW INITIALLY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE N TO
NNE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND FURTHER RELAX EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CFP.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES OR CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH DOMINATING PERIODS OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...DOUG/3







000
FXUS62 KILM 281450
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1050 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE. DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF FRONT MUCH
OF THIS WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...MORNING CLOUD COVER HAMPERING OTHERWISE
RAPID MORNING TEMPERATURE CLIMBS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER IS THINNING AND SOON SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL RAMP UP.
H5 TEMPS HAVE DROPPED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND WILL REMAIN AROUND -7
DEGREES MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT
FOLLOW MAINLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STILL...THESE FACTORS COULD
BRING MORE OF A HAIL THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING ...AS HIGH SFC
CAPES AND UPPER COOLING OVERLAP. SPC RETAINS A SLIGHT RISK OVER
OUR AREA DUE TO GOOD FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING AND
UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED ROBUST BULK
SHEAR PARAMETERS. WITH INCREASING SUN...IGNITION OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO INTERTWINE IN THE MIX TO ADD
LOW-LEVEL BOOSTS SO THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM INITIATION.

STORM MOTION AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE PARAMETERS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...THROUGH A FORWARD MOTION CLOSE TO 30
MPH AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO INCREASE DOWNDRAFT POWER. ANYTIME
AFTER 18Z SEEMS FAIR GAME FOR DISCREET STRONG STORMS...THEN A MORE
ORGANIZED SQUALL OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITHIN THE MAIN VORT
SPOKE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SLATED LATE TONIGHT AND A WIND-SHIFT TO THE NORTH LOOKS
TO CLEAR THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SC FOR MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF 105-108 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS OVERALL SCT SKIES THIS
MORNING...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS...AS A DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. CHANCES INCREASE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 12 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH THE CONVECTION AS STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF AND SKIES
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH VEERING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR
SW-WSW WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
DURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER FROM WSW TO NW INITIALLY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE N TO
NNE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND FURTHER RELAX EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CFP.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES OR CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH DOMINATING PERIODS OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...DOUG/3






000
FXUS62 KILM 281450
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1050 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE. DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF FRONT MUCH
OF THIS WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...MORNING CLOUD COVER HAMPERING OTHERWISE
RAPID MORNING TEMPERATURE CLIMBS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER IS THINNING AND SOON SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL RAMP UP.
H5 TEMPS HAVE DROPPED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND WILL REMAIN AROUND -7
DEGREES MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT
FOLLOW MAINLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STILL...THESE FACTORS COULD
BRING MORE OF A HAIL THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING ...AS HIGH SFC
CAPES AND UPPER COOLING OVERLAP. SPC RETAINS A SLIGHT RISK OVER
OUR AREA DUE TO GOOD FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING AND
UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED ROBUST BULK
SHEAR PARAMETERS. WITH INCREASING SUN...IGNITION OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO INTERTWINE IN THE MIX TO ADD
LOW-LEVEL BOOSTS SO THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM INITIATION.

STORM MOTION AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE PARAMETERS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...THROUGH A FORWARD MOTION CLOSE TO 30
MPH AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO INCREASE DOWNDRAFT POWER. ANYTIME
AFTER 18Z SEEMS FAIR GAME FOR DISCREET STRONG STORMS...THEN A MORE
ORGANIZED SQUALL OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITHIN THE MAIN VORT
SPOKE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SLATED LATE TONIGHT AND A WIND-SHIFT TO THE NORTH LOOKS
TO CLEAR THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SC FOR MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF 105-108 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS OVERALL SCT SKIES THIS
MORNING...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS...AS A DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. CHANCES INCREASE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 12 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH THE CONVECTION AS STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF AND SKIES
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH VEERING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR
SW-WSW WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
DURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER FROM WSW TO NW INITIALLY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE N TO
NNE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND FURTHER RELAX EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CFP.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES OR CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH DOMINATING PERIODS OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...DOUG/3





000
FXUS62 KILM 281132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE. DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF FRONT MUCH
OF THIS WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...HAZY HOT AND HUMID. VARIOUS MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE TOPS MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.
WITH THE UPPER 90S OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
ILM CWA. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE SLATED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100S...WITH MID 100S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SC PORTION OF THE ILM CWA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...AND LOW 100S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ILM CWA. WHERE
HEAT INDEX THRESHOLDS OF 105 AND GREATER ARE MET...A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FOR TODAYS OCCURRENCE...IT
INCLUDES THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM SC COUNTIES.

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FROM THE
MID-DAY HOURS TO MID-EVENING. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AS WELL
AS VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS...ALL INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH SOUNDING DATA POINTING
TO PWS TEMPORARILY REACHING UP TO 2+ INCHES FROM MIDDAY THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN QUESTION FOR
CONVECTION TODAY DUE TO WINDS ALOFT PROGGED TO BE W TO WNW...A
SCOURING EFFECT COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
VARIOUS SVR PARAMETERS MAY BE MET WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POSSIBILITY. FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR
DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS FOLLOWED BY THE ADVECTION
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR...RESULTING IN LOWER RHS. LOOKING AT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS OVERALL SCT SKIES THIS
MORNING...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS...AS A DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. CHANCES INCREASE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 12 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH THE CONVECTION AS STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF AND SKIES
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH VEERING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SW-WSW
WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. DURING
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
VEER FROM WSW TO NW INITIALLY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE N TO NNE
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND FURTHER RELAX EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CFP.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES OR CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH DOMINATING PERIODS OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 280830
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
430 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TWO TYPES OF WEATHER PHENOMENA TO DEAL WITH
THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD RESULT WITH INJURY AND/OR POSSIBLY
BECOME LIFE THREATENING.

THE 1ST DEALS WITH THE 3 H`S...HAZY HOT AND HUMID. VARIOUS MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE TOPS MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER
90S. WITH THE UPPER 90S OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ILM CWA. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE SLATED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100S...WITH MID 100S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SC PORTION OF THE ILM CWA INCLUDING THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND LOW 100S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ILM
CWA. WHERE HEAT INDEX THRESHOLDS OF 105 AND GREATER ARE MET...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FOR TODAYS
OCCURRENCE...IT INCLUDES THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM SC COUNTIES.

THE 2ND DEALS WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FROM THE MID-DAY HOURS TO MID-EVENING. NAM
AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS...ALL INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS WITH SOUNDING DATA POINTING TO PWS TEMPORARILY REACHING
UP TO 2+ INCHES FROM MIDDAY THRU THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN QUESTION FOR CONVECTION TODAY DUE TO WINDS
ALOFT PROGGED TO BE W TO WNW...A SCOURING EFFECT COMING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VARIOUS SVR PARAMETERS MAY BE
MET WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE
HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FA. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS
FOLLOWED BY THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR...RESULTING IN
LOWER RHS. LOOKING AT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.

FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SW-WSW
WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. DURING
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
VEER FROM WSW TO NW INITIALLY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE N TO NNE
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND FURTHER RELAX EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CFP.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES OR CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH DOMINATING PERIODS OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 280830
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
430 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TWO TYPES OF WEATHER PHENOMENA TO DEAL WITH
THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD RESULT WITH INJURY AND/OR POSSIBLY
BECOME LIFE THREATENING.

THE 1ST DEALS WITH THE 3 H`S...HAZY HOT AND HUMID. VARIOUS MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE TOPS MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER
90S. WITH THE UPPER 90S OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ILM CWA. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE SLATED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100S...WITH MID 100S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SC PORTION OF THE ILM CWA INCLUDING THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND LOW 100S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ILM
CWA. WHERE HEAT INDEX THRESHOLDS OF 105 AND GREATER ARE MET...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FOR TODAYS
OCCURRENCE...IT INCLUDES THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM SC COUNTIES.

THE 2ND DEALS WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FROM THE MID-DAY HOURS TO MID-EVENING. NAM
AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS...ALL INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS WITH SOUNDING DATA POINTING TO PWS TEMPORARILY REACHING
UP TO 2+ INCHES FROM MIDDAY THRU THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN QUESTION FOR CONVECTION TODAY DUE TO WINDS
ALOFT PROGGED TO BE W TO WNW...A SCOURING EFFECT COMING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VARIOUS SVR PARAMETERS MAY BE
MET WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE
HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FA. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS
FOLLOWED BY THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR...RESULTING IN
LOWER RHS. LOOKING AT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.

FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SW-WSW
WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. DURING
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
VEER FROM WSW TO NW INITIALLY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE N TO NNE
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND FURTHER RELAX EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CFP.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES OR CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH DOMINATING PERIODS OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH






000
FXUS62 KILM 280816
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
416 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TWO TYPES OF WEATHER PHENOMENA TO DEAL WITH
THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD RESULT WITH INJURY AND/OR POSSIBLY
BECOME LIFE THREATENING.

THE 1ST DEALS WITH THE 3 H`S...HAZY HOT AND HUMID. VARIOUS MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE TOPS MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER
90S. WITH THE UPPER 90S OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ILM CWA. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE SLATED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100S...WITH MID 100S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SC PORTION OF THE ILM CWA INCLUDING THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND LOW 100S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ILM
CWA. WHERE HEAT INDEX THRESHOLDS OF 105 AND GREATER ARE MET...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FOR TODAYS
OCCURRENCE...IT INCLUDES THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM SC COUNTIES.

THE 2ND DEALS WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FROM THE MID-DAY HOURS TO MID-EVENING. NAM
AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS...ALL INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS WITH SOUNDING DATA POINTING TO PWS TEMPORARILY REACHING
UP TO 2+ INCHES FROM MIDDAY THRU THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN QUESTION FOR CONVECTION TODAY DUE TO WINDS
ALOFT PROGGED TO BE W TO WNW...A SCOURING EFFECT COMING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VARIOUS SVR PARAMETERS MAY BE
MET WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE
HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FA. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS
FOLLOWED BY THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR...RESULTING IN
LOWER RHS. LOOKING AT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.

FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KILM 280816
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
416 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TWO TYPES OF WEATHER PHENOMENA TO DEAL WITH
THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD RESULT WITH INJURY AND/OR POSSIBLY
BECOME LIFE THREATENING.

THE 1ST DEALS WITH THE 3 H`S...HAZY HOT AND HUMID. VARIOUS MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE TOPS MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER
90S. WITH THE UPPER 90S OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ILM CWA. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE SLATED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100S...WITH MID 100S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SC PORTION OF THE ILM CWA INCLUDING THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND LOW 100S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ILM
CWA. WHERE HEAT INDEX THRESHOLDS OF 105 AND GREATER ARE MET...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FOR TODAYS
OCCURRENCE...IT INCLUDES THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM SC COUNTIES.

THE 2ND DEALS WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FROM THE MID-DAY HOURS TO MID-EVENING. NAM
AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS...ALL INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS WITH SOUNDING DATA POINTING TO PWS TEMPORARILY REACHING
UP TO 2+ INCHES FROM MIDDAY THRU THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN QUESTION FOR CONVECTION TODAY DUE TO WINDS
ALOFT PROGGED TO BE W TO WNW...A SCOURING EFFECT COMING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VARIOUS SVR PARAMETERS MAY BE
MET WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE
HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FA. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS
FOLLOWED BY THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR...RESULTING IN
LOWER RHS. LOOKING AT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.

FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KILM 280710
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
310 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.

FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH







000
FXUS62 KILM 280607
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
207 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.

FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 280607
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
207 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.

FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH






000
FXUS62 KILM 280214
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1014 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 280214
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1014 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 272332
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SUNDAY...CANCELED THE HEAT ADVISORY EARLY AS
CRITERIA WAS NOT BEING MET. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS HIT THE 105
DEGREE F HEAT INDEX LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY BRIEFLY. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT
A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE
HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION UNDER FULL SUN AND
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT
APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM
APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY
INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 272332
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SUNDAY...CANCELED THE HEAT ADVISORY EARLY AS
CRITERIA WAS NOT BEING MET. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS HIT THE 105
DEGREE F HEAT INDEX LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY BRIEFLY. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT
A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE
HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION UNDER FULL SUN AND
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT
APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM
APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY
INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 272302
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
700 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC
EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING
VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS
ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION
UNDER FULL SUN AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING
WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT
OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
EARLIER TODAY INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTICELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNRISE MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW/BJR














000
FXUS62 KILM 272302
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
700 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC
EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING
VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS
ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION
UNDER FULL SUN AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING
WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT
OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
EARLIER TODAY INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTICELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNRISE MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW/BJR













000
FXUS62 KILM 271934
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC
EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING
VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS
ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION
UNDER FULL SUN AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING
WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT
OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
EARLIER TODAY INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTICELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPARSELY-LOCATED LIGHT SHOWERS. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR DUE TO FOG INLAND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK..ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING THE RISK OF
STRONG STORMS JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNRISE MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/SGL
MARINE...MJC/JDW/BJR










000
FXUS62 KILM 271934
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC
EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING
VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS
ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION
UNDER FULL SUN AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING
WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT
OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
EARLIER TODAY INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTICELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPARSELY-LOCATED LIGHT SHOWERS. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR DUE TO FOG INLAND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK..ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING THE RISK OF
STRONG STORMS JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNRISE MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/SGL
MARINE...MJC/JDW/BJR











000
FXUS62 KILM 271726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX HAS BECOME
UNRAVELED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR ZONES HAS DIMINISHED.
UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIR ALOFT DOMED OVER OUR AREA.
THE BROAD SCALE RIDGE LIKELY WINS OUT...AND ISOLATED TO NO
ACTIVITY IS ON TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A BROILING AIR
MASS BY APPARENT FEEL STANDARDS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND OVERALL HEAT INDICES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 103 TO 108...HIGHEST SC INTERIOR
AND LOWEST IMMEDIATE COASTAL STRIPS.

THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
THE ENGINE THAT PROPELS A VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND S
WINDS GUSTS ALONG BEACHES OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING INTO EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SUSTAINING ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS
COUPLED WITH LINGERING TEPID AIR WILL SPELL MILD TO WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMN. POPS/SHRA/TSTMS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS NOCTURNAL BUOYANCY INCREASES OVER THE SEA.
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK IN THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPARSELY-LOCATED LIGHT SHOWERS. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR DUE TO FOG INLAND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK..ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING THE RISK OF
STRONG STORMS JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AS SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SW
WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SEA BREEZE
ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS TO BECOME COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS
LIKELY WILL NOT DROP IN SPEEDS...SO AT MINIMUM AN EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN ADVISORY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEA ENERGY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND- WAVES
FROM THE SSW 3-4 FT AT 5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT AT 8-10
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
 AVIATION...SGL/MJC







000
FXUS62 KILM 271726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX HAS BECOME
UNRAVELED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR ZONES HAS DIMINISHED.
UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIR ALOFT DOMED OVER OUR AREA.
THE BROAD SCALE RIDGE LIKELY WINS OUT...AND ISOLATED TO NO
ACTIVITY IS ON TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A BROILING AIR
MASS BY APPARENT FEEL STANDARDS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND OVERALL HEAT INDICES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 103 TO 108...HIGHEST SC INTERIOR
AND LOWEST IMMEDIATE COASTAL STRIPS.

THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
THE ENGINE THAT PROPELS A VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND S
WINDS GUSTS ALONG BEACHES OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING INTO EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SUSTAINING ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS
COUPLED WITH LINGERING TEPID AIR WILL SPELL MILD TO WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMN. POPS/SHRA/TSTMS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS NOCTURNAL BUOYANCY INCREASES OVER THE SEA.
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK IN THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPARSELY-LOCATED LIGHT SHOWERS. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR DUE TO FOG INLAND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK..ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING THE RISK OF
STRONG STORMS JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AS SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SW
WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SEA BREEZE
ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS TO BECOME COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS
LIKELY WILL NOT DROP IN SPEEDS...SO AT MINIMUM AN EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN ADVISORY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEA ENERGY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND- WAVES
FROM THE SSW 3-4 FT AT 5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT AT 8-10
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
 AVIATION...SGL/MJC








000
FXUS62 KILM 271511
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1111 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM SUNDAY...A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS BECOMING
UNRAVELED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS LATE MORNING...AND AM
ANTICIPATING THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A FLORENCE SC TO LUMBERTON NC CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE IS SET
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WITH
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIR ALOFT DOMED OVER OUR REGION. THE BROAD
SCALE RIDGE LIKELY WINS OUT...AND ISOLATED TO NO ACTIVITY IS ON
TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A BROILING AIR MASS BY APPARENT
FEEL STANDARDS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND OVERALL HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM 103 TO 108...HIGHEST SC INTERIOR AND LOWEST IMMEDIATE
COASTAL STRIPS.

THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
THE ENGINE THAT PROPELS A VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND S
WINDS GUSTS ALONG BEACHES OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING INTO EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SUSTAINING ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS
COUPLED WITH LINGERING TEPID AIR WILL SPELL MILD TO WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMN. POPS/SHRA/TSTMS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS NOCTURNAL BUOYANCY INCREASES OVER THE SEA.
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK IN THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SUNDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AS SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SW
WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS. A FEW TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SEA
BREEZE ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS TO BECOME COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT DROP IN SPEEDS...SO AT MINIMUM AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN
ADVISORY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEA ENERGY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND-
WAVES FROM THE SSW 3-4 FT AT 5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT AT
8-10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL











000
FXUS62 KILM 271511
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1111 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM SUNDAY...A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS BECOMING
UNRAVELED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS LATE MORNING...AND AM
ANTICIPATING THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A FLORENCE SC TO LUMBERTON NC CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE IS SET
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WITH
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIR ALOFT DOMED OVER OUR REGION. THE BROAD
SCALE RIDGE LIKELY WINS OUT...AND ISOLATED TO NO ACTIVITY IS ON
TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A BROILING AIR MASS BY APPARENT
FEEL STANDARDS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND OVERALL HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM 103 TO 108...HIGHEST SC INTERIOR AND LOWEST IMMEDIATE
COASTAL STRIPS.

THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
THE ENGINE THAT PROPELS A VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND S
WINDS GUSTS ALONG BEACHES OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING INTO EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SUSTAINING ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS
COUPLED WITH LINGERING TEPID AIR WILL SPELL MILD TO WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMN. POPS/SHRA/TSTMS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS NOCTURNAL BUOYANCY INCREASES OVER THE SEA.
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK IN THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SUNDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AS SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SW
WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS. A FEW TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SEA
BREEZE ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS TO BECOME COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT DROP IN SPEEDS...SO AT MINIMUM AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN
ADVISORY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEA ENERGY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND-
WAVES FROM THE SSW 3-4 FT AT 5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT AT
8-10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL












000
FXUS62 KILM 271500
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM SUNDAY...A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS BECOMING
UNRAVELED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS LATE MORNING...AND AM
ANTICIPATING THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A FLORENCE SC TO LUMBERTON NC CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE IS SET
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WITH
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIR ALOFT DOMED OVER OUR REGION. THE BROAD
SCALE RIDGE LIKELY WINS OUT...AND ISOLATED TO NO ACTIVITY IS ON
TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A BROILING AIR MASS BY APPARENT
FEEL STANDARDS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND OVERALL HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM 103 TO 108...HIGHEST SC INTERIOR AND LOWEST IMMEDIATE
COASTAL STRIPS.

THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
THE ENGINE THAT PROPELS A VIGOROUS SEAS BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND S
WINDS GUSTS ALONG BEACHES OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AND PREVAILING INTO EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH HOT
AIR WILL SPELL MILD TO WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY DAYBREAK
WITH INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. POPS/SHRA/TSTMS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINE TO COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS
NIGHT BUOYANCY INCREASES OVER THE THE SEA. WILL NEED TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK IN THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY COULD MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE
CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SUNDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AS SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SW
WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS. A FEW TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SEA
BREEZE ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS TO BECOME COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT DROP IN SPEEDS...SO AT MINIMUM AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN
ADVISORY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEA ENERGY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND-
WAVES FROM THE SSW 3-4 FT AT 5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT AT
8-10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 271500
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM SUNDAY...A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS BECOMING
UNRAVELED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS LATE MORNING...AND AM
ANTICIPATING THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A FLORENCE SC TO LUMBERTON NC CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE IS SET
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WITH
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIR ALOFT DOMED OVER OUR REGION. THE BROAD
SCALE RIDGE LIKELY WINS OUT...AND ISOLATED TO NO ACTIVITY IS ON
TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A BROILING AIR MASS BY APPARENT
FEEL STANDARDS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND OVERALL HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM 103 TO 108...HIGHEST SC INTERIOR AND LOWEST IMMEDIATE
COASTAL STRIPS.

THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
THE ENGINE THAT PROPELS A VIGOROUS SEAS BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND S
WINDS GUSTS ALONG BEACHES OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AND PREVAILING INTO EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH HOT
AIR WILL SPELL MILD TO WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY DAYBREAK
WITH INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. POPS/SHRA/TSTMS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINE TO COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS
NIGHT BUOYANCY INCREASES OVER THE THE SEA. WILL NEED TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK IN THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY COULD MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE
CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SUNDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AS SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SW
WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS. A FEW TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SEA
BREEZE ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS TO BECOME COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT DROP IN SPEEDS...SO AT MINIMUM AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN
ADVISORY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEA ENERGY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND-
WAVES FROM THE SSW 3-4 FT AT 5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT AT
8-10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 271207
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
804 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 AM SUNDAY...UPDATES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MESO-SCALE VORTICY POISED TO SPIN AND GRAZE OUR NW
ZONES FROM A BENNETTSVILLE TO LUMBERTON CORRIDOR. ADJUSTMENTS
INCLUDE SKY COVER INCREASES AND A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
AND NORTH OF THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND
A HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND EXCLUDING PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL













000
FXUS62 KILM 271207
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
804 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 AM SUNDAY...UPDATES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MESO-SCALE VORTICY POISED TO SPIN AND GRAZE OUR NW
ZONES FROM A BENNETTSVILLE TO LUMBERTON CORRIDOR. ADJUSTMENTS
INCLUDE SKY COVER INCREASES AND A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
AND NORTH OF THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND
A HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND EXCLUDING PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL












000
FXUS62 KILM 271204
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
804 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 AM SUNDAY...UPDATES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MESO-SCALE VORTICY POISED TO SPIN AND GRAZE OUR NW
ZONES FROM A BENNETTSVILLE TO LUMBERTON CORRIDOR. ADJUSTMENTS
INCLUDE SKY COVER INCREASES AND A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
AND NORTH OF THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND
A HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND EXCLUDING PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 271204
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
804 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 AM SUNDAY...UPDATES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MESO-SCALE VORTICY POISED TO SPIN AND GRAZE OUR NW
ZONES FROM A BENNETTSVILLE TO LUMBERTON CORRIDOR. ADJUSTMENTS
INCLUDE SKY COVER INCREASES AND A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
AND NORTH OF THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND
A HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND EXCLUDING PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL










000
FXUS62 KILM 271200
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 AM SUNDAY...UPDATES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MESO-SCALE VORTICY POISED TO SPIN AND GRAZE OUR NW
ZONES FROM A BENNETTSVILLE TO LUMBERTON CORRIDOR. ADJUSTMENTS
INCLUDE SKY COVER INCREASES AND A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
AND NORTH OF THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND
A HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND EXCLUDING PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KILM 271200
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 AM SUNDAY...UPDATES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MESO-SCALE VORTICY POISED TO SPIN AND GRAZE OUR NW
ZONES FROM A BENNETTSVILLE TO LUMBERTON CORRIDOR. ADJUSTMENTS
INCLUDE SKY COVER INCREASES AND A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
AND NORTH OF THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND
A HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND EXCLUDING PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KILM 271042
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
642 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT. AT
THIS POINT...ALL OF THE ILM CWA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 2
NC COUNTIES ARE UNDER THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE ILM CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE BEST DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS/MCC REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. THE FA WILL
HAVE TO BE DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOW THICK AND/OR OPAQUE THESE CLOUDS REMAIN AS
THEY CROSS THE ILM CWA COULD REDUCE TODAYS MAX TEMPS BY 1 TO 3
DEGREES...TO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS OF COURSE REMAINS HOT BUT
COULD JEOPARDIZE THE BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY IN AFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH






000
FXUS62 KILM 271042
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
642 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT. AT
THIS POINT...ALL OF THE ILM CWA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 2
NC COUNTIES ARE UNDER THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE ILM CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE BEST DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS/MCC REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. THE FA WILL
HAVE TO BE DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOW THICK AND/OR OPAQUE THESE CLOUDS REMAIN AS
THEY CROSS THE ILM CWA COULD REDUCE TODAYS MAX TEMPS BY 1 TO 3
DEGREES...TO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS OF COURSE REMAINS HOT BUT
COULD JEOPARDIZE THE BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY IN AFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 270820
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
420 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT. AT THIS
POINT...ALL OF THE ILM CWA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 2 NC
COUNTIES ARE UNDER THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE ILM CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE BEST DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS/MCC REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. THE FA WILL
HAVE TO BE DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOW THICK AND/OR OPAQUE THESE CLOUDS REMAIN AS
THEY CROSS THE ILM CWA COULD REDUCE TODAYS MAX TEMPS BY 1 TO 3
DEGREES...TO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS OF COURSE REMAINS HOT BUT
COULD JEOPARDIZE THE BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY IN AFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND
SLOWLY BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND MON PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH








000
FXUS62 KILM 270730
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
330 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...SOME CIRRUS IS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE THAT WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15 KT TONIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A MIX
OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1 TO 2
FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS WILL
LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT BY MID
AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BUT BY MID
MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION.
DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SEAS FROM 4
TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH







000
FXUS62 KILM 270730
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
330 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...SOME CIRRUS IS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE THAT WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15 KT TONIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A MIX
OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1 TO 2
FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS WILL
LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT BY MID
AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BUT BY MID
MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION.
DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SEAS FROM 4
TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH








000
FXUS62 KILM 270502
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
102 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY...CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN ON MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...SOME CIRRUS IS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE THAT WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS BOTH EXTREME HEAT/HEAT INDICES AND SPRING-LIKE
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA. WITH A HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN
PLACE FOR ALL SOUTH CAROLINA INLAND COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
ROBESON...COLUMBUS...AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...WILL
ALSO FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AS WELL
WITH APPARENT TEMPS BOTH DAYS NEARING/AT/OR JUST ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES THANKS TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3. A STRONG AND VERY SPRING-LIKE DIGGING
TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE AREA IS NOT USUALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS
SUCH DURING THE MID-SUMMER MONTHS...THE SETUP IS BECOMING MUCH MORE
INTERESTING ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 95+ TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY...WHICH IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN A TYPICAL
SETUP LIKE THIS FOR APRIL/MAY. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UNFAVORABLE
LOCATION/NATURE OF THE JET...FOCUS TURNS TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA (MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING)...AND HAVE DECIDED TO UTILIZE GFS MORE IN
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN ANALYZING SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER VALUES.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY...REACHING UP TO 2 INCHES BY 18Z. WHILE TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES TO
KICK-START MONDAY MORNING AND THUS AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S. PER LATEST 12Z GFS FCST SOUNDINGS...A SLIGHT THERMAL RIDGE IS
PRESENT...BUT AGAIN GIVEN ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY...AN ADJUSTED SKEW-T WOULD MAKE THIS OBSOLETE AND PRESENT ITSELF
AS A NEARLY-CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. LOOKING AT OTHER PARAMETERS...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP...WITH VALUES OF 6-7 C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE SHOWING TO BE ROUGHLY -6 TO -8. THIS WITH CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2000+ AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WILL
CREATE QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AREA. ALSO...DCAPE VALUES
WILL BE 300+...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ARE ILLUSTRATING A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SPEED
SHEAR VERSUS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WHILE EXPECT A LOW TORNADO
THREAT...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE
CELLS/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION-WISE...WHILE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LIFT...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PLAY A ROLE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL (LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING) AS IT
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DECENT MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES CLOSER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND THE ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BUT
BEING THAT THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL REMIND THAT
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY. ANY DECREASE/INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
COULD CHANGE THINGS ENTIRELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FALL COMES EARLY THIS YEAR...OR SO IT
SEEMS...AS THE END OF JULY AND BEGINNING OF AUGUST FEATURE A PATTERN
RARELY SEEN IN MID-SUMMER. THIS FALL LIKE PATTERN IS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH...PROGGED TO REACH -4 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THEN SITTING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
DRIER AIR...AS SHOWN BY PWATS AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH TUE-THU...AND A
THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...TEMPS WILL ALSO
STRUGGLE TO VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -2 SD`S...AND HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK...WILL KEEP POP SILENT ATTM. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL TRY TO BACK UP
TOWARDS THE COAST...CREATING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER POP
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15 KT TONIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A MIX
OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1 TO 2
FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCEC POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY TUESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE DURING TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST...LEAVING A RELATIVE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...INCREASING SLOWLY TO 10-15
KTS BY THURSDAY. SEAS TUESDAY WILL BE 1-3 FT ON THE NW WINDS...BUT
THEN BECOME A MORE STEADY 2-3 FT LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND
INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING NE WIND WAVE DOMINATING THE
WAVE SPECTRUM. SEAS THURSDAY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE
STRONGER WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 270502
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
102 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY...CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN ON MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...SOME CIRRUS IS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE THAT WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS BOTH EXTREME HEAT/HEAT INDICES AND SPRING-LIKE
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA. WITH A HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN
PLACE FOR ALL SOUTH CAROLINA INLAND COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
ROBESON...COLUMBUS...AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...WILL
ALSO FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AS WELL
WITH APPARENT TEMPS BOTH DAYS NEARING/AT/OR JUST ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES THANKS TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3. A STRONG AND VERY SPRING-LIKE DIGGING
TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE AREA IS NOT USUALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS
SUCH DURING THE MID-SUMMER MONTHS...THE SETUP IS BECOMING MUCH MORE
INTERESTING ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 95+ TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY...WHICH IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN A TYPICAL
SETUP LIKE THIS FOR APRIL/MAY. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UNFAVORABLE
LOCATION/NATURE OF THE JET...FOCUS TURNS TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA (MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING)...AND HAVE DECIDED TO UTILIZE GFS MORE IN
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN ANALYZING SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER VALUES.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY...REACHING UP TO 2 INCHES BY 18Z. WHILE TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES TO
KICK-START MONDAY MORNING AND THUS AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S. PER LATEST 12Z GFS FCST SOUNDINGS...A SLIGHT THERMAL RIDGE IS
PRESENT...BUT AGAIN GIVEN ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY...AN ADJUSTED SKEW-T WOULD MAKE THIS OBSOLETE AND PRESENT ITSELF
AS A NEARLY-CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. LOOKING AT OTHER PARAMETERS...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP...WITH VALUES OF 6-7 C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE SHOWING TO BE ROUGHLY -6 TO -8. THIS WITH CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2000+ AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WILL
CREATE QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AREA. ALSO...DCAPE VALUES
WILL BE 300+...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ARE ILLUSTRATING A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SPEED
SHEAR VERSUS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WHILE EXPECT A LOW TORNADO
THREAT...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE
CELLS/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION-WISE...WHILE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LIFT...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PLAY A ROLE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL (LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING) AS IT
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DECENT MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES CLOSER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND THE ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BUT
BEING THAT THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL REMIND THAT
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY. ANY DECREASE/INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
COULD CHANGE THINGS ENTIRELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FALL COMES EARLY THIS YEAR...OR SO IT
SEEMS...AS THE END OF JULY AND BEGINNING OF AUGUST FEATURE A PATTERN
RARELY SEEN IN MID-SUMMER. THIS FALL LIKE PATTERN IS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH...PROGGED TO REACH -4 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THEN SITTING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
DRIER AIR...AS SHOWN BY PWATS AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH TUE-THU...AND A
THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...TEMPS WILL ALSO
STRUGGLE TO VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -2 SD`S...AND HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK...WILL KEEP POP SILENT ATTM. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL TRY TO BACK UP
TOWARDS THE COAST...CREATING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER POP
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15 KT TONIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A MIX
OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1 TO 2
FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCEC POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY TUESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE DURING TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST...LEAVING A RELATIVE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...INCREASING SLOWLY TO 10-15
KTS BY THURSDAY. SEAS TUESDAY WILL BE 1-3 FT ON THE NW WINDS...BUT
THEN BECOME A MORE STEADY 2-3 FT LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND
INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING NE WIND WAVE DOMINATING THE
WAVE SPECTRUM. SEAS THURSDAY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE
STRONGER WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH






000
FXUS62 KILM 270259
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1059 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY...CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN ON MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...SOME CIRRUS IS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE THAT WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS BOTH EXTREME HEAT/HEAT INDICES AND SPRING-LIKE
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA. WITH A HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN
PLACE FOR ALL SOUTH CAROLINA INLAND COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
ROBESON...COLUMBUS...AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...WILL
ALSO FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AS WELL
WITH APPARENT TEMPS BOTH DAYS NEARING/AT/OR JUST ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES THANKS TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3. A STRONG AND VERY SPRING-LIKE DIGGING
TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE AREA IS NOT USUALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS
SUCH DURING THE MID-SUMMER MONTHS...THE SETUP IS BECOMING MUCH MORE
INTERESTING ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 95+ TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY...WHICH IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN A TYPICAL
SETUP LIKE THIS FOR APRIL/MAY. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UNFAVORABLE
LOCATION/NATURE OF THE JET...FOCUS TURNS TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA (MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING)...AND HAVE DECIDED TO UTILIZE GFS MORE IN
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN ANALYZING SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER VALUES.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY...REACHING UP TO 2 INCHES BY 18Z. WHILE TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES TO
KICK-START MONDAY MORNING AND THUS AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S. PER LATEST 12Z GFS FCST SOUNDINGS...A SLIGHT THERMAL RIDGE IS
PRESENT...BUT AGAIN GIVEN ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY...AN ADJUSTED SKEW-T WOULD MAKE THIS OBSOLETE AND PRESENT ITSELF
AS A NEARLY-CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. LOOKING AT OTHER PARAMETERS...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP...WITH VALUES OF 6-7 C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE SHOWING TO BE ROUGHLY -6 TO -8. THIS WITH CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2000+ AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WILL
CREATE QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AREA. ALSO...DCAPE VALUES
WILL BE 300+...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ARE ILLUSTRATING A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SPEED
SHEAR VERSUS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WHILE EXPECT A LOW TORNADO
THREAT...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE
CELLS/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION-WISE...WHILE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LIFT...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PLAY A ROLE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL (LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING) AS IT
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DECENT MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES CLOSER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND THE ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BUT
BEING THAT THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL REMIND THAT
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY. ANY DECREASE/INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
COULD CHANGE THINGS ENTIRELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FALL COMES EARLY THIS YEAR...OR SO IT
SEEMS...AS THE END OF JULY AND BEGINNING OF AUGUST FEATURE A PATTERN
RARELY SEEN IN MID-SUMMER. THIS FALL LIKE PATTERN IS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH...PROGGED TO REACH -4 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THEN SITTING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
DRIER AIR...AS SHOWN BY PWATS AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH TUE-THU...AND A
THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...TEMPS WILL ALSO
STRUGGLE TO VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -2 SD`S...AND HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK...WILL KEEP POP SILENT ATTM. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL TRY TO BACK UP
TOWARDS THE COAST...CREATING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER POP
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRETTY QUIET NIGHT OVERALL WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE 5 KTS ALONG THE
COAST...PRECLUDING ANY FOG. INLAND...BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE LIGHT FOG STARTING AROUND 07-08Z...WITH POCKETS OF
IFR FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-11Z. SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PICK UP WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT THAT WILL
DROP INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15 KT TONIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A MIX
OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1 TO 2
FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCEC POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY TUESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE DURING TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST...LEAVING A RELATIVE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...INCREASING SLOWLY TO 10-15
KTS BY THURSDAY. SEAS TUESDAY WILL BE 1-3 FT ON THE NW WINDS...BUT
THEN BECOME A MORE STEADY 2-3 FT LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND
INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING NE WIND WAVE DOMINATING THE
WAVE SPECTRUM. SEAS THURSDAY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE
STRONGER WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 270259
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1059 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY...CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN ON MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...SOME CIRRUS IS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE THAT WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS BOTH EXTREME HEAT/HEAT INDICES AND SPRING-LIKE
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA. WITH A HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN
PLACE FOR ALL SOUTH CAROLINA INLAND COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
ROBESON...COLUMBUS...AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...WILL
ALSO FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AS WELL
WITH APPARENT TEMPS BOTH DAYS NEARING/AT/OR JUST ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES THANKS TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3. A STRONG AND VERY SPRING-LIKE DIGGING
TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE AREA IS NOT USUALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS
SUCH DURING THE MID-SUMMER MONTHS...THE SETUP IS BECOMING MUCH MORE
INTERESTING ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 95+ TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY...WHICH IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN A TYPICAL
SETUP LIKE THIS FOR APRIL/MAY. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UNFAVORABLE
LOCATION/NATURE OF THE JET...FOCUS TURNS TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA (MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING)...AND HAVE DECIDED TO UTILIZE GFS MORE IN
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN ANALYZING SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER VALUES.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY...REACHING UP TO 2 INCHES BY 18Z. WHILE TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES TO
KICK-START MONDAY MORNING AND THUS AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S. PER LATEST 12Z GFS FCST SOUNDINGS...A SLIGHT THERMAL RIDGE IS
PRESENT...BUT AGAIN GIVEN ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY...AN ADJUSTED SKEW-T WOULD MAKE THIS OBSOLETE AND PRESENT ITSELF
AS A NEARLY-CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. LOOKING AT OTHER PARAMETERS...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP...WITH VALUES OF 6-7 C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE SHOWING TO BE ROUGHLY -6 TO -8. THIS WITH CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2000+ AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WILL
CREATE QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AREA. ALSO...DCAPE VALUES
WILL BE 300+...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ARE ILLUSTRATING A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SPEED
SHEAR VERSUS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WHILE EXPECT A LOW TORNADO
THREAT...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE
CELLS/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION-WISE...WHILE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LIFT...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PLAY A ROLE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL (LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING) AS IT
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DECENT MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES CLOSER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND THE ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BUT
BEING THAT THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL REMIND THAT
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY. ANY DECREASE/INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
COULD CHANGE THINGS ENTIRELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FALL COMES EARLY THIS YEAR...OR SO IT
SEEMS...AS THE END OF JULY AND BEGINNING OF AUGUST FEATURE A PATTERN
RARELY SEEN IN MID-SUMMER. THIS FALL LIKE PATTERN IS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH...PROGGED TO REACH -4 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THEN SITTING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
DRIER AIR...AS SHOWN BY PWATS AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH TUE-THU...AND A
THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...TEMPS WILL ALSO
STRUGGLE TO VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -2 SD`S...AND HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK...WILL KEEP POP SILENT ATTM. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL TRY TO BACK UP
TOWARDS THE COAST...CREATING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER POP
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRETTY QUIET NIGHT OVERALL WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE 5 KTS ALONG THE
COAST...PRECLUDING ANY FOG. INLAND...BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE LIGHT FOG STARTING AROUND 07-08Z...WITH POCKETS OF
IFR FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-11Z. SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PICK UP WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT THAT WILL
DROP INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15 KT TONIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A MIX
OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1 TO 2
FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCEC POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY TUESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE DURING TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST...LEAVING A RELATIVE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...INCREASING SLOWLY TO 10-15
KTS BY THURSDAY. SEAS TUESDAY WILL BE 1-3 FT ON THE NW WINDS...BUT
THEN BECOME A MORE STEADY 2-3 FT LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND
INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING NE WIND WAVE DOMINATING THE
WAVE SPECTRUM. SEAS THURSDAY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE
STRONGER WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 262342
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY...CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN ON MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF UNUSUALLY PERSISTENT AND
STATIONARY SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY MID LEVELS EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE IT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS FAR AS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS GOES. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST FOLLOWS:

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS BOTH EXTREME HEAT/HEAT INDICES AND SPRING-LIKE
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA. WITH A HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN
PLACE FOR ALL SOUTH CAROLINA INLAND COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
ROBESON...COLUMBUS...AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...WILL
ALSO FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AS WELL
WITH APPARENT TEMPS BOTH DAYS NEARING/AT/OR JUST ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES THANKS TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3. A STRONG AND VERY SPRING-LIKE DIGGING
TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE AREA IS NOT USUALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS
SUCH DURING THE MID-SUMMER MONTHS...THE SETUP IS BECOMING MUCH MORE
INTERESTING ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 95+ TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY...WHICH IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN A TYPICAL
SETUP LIKE THIS FOR APRIL/MAY. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UNFAVORABLE
LOCATION/NATURE OF THE JET...FOCUS TURNS TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA (MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING)...AND HAVE DECIDED TO UTILIZE GFS MORE IN
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN ANALYZING SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER VALUES.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY...REACHING UP TO 2 INCHES BY 18Z. WHILE TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES TO
KICK-START MONDAY MORNING AND THUS AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S. PER LATEST 12Z GFS FCST SOUNDINGS...A SLIGHT THERMAL RIDGE IS
PRESENT...BUT AGAIN GIVEN ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY...AN ADJUSTED SKEW-T WOULD MAKE THIS OBSOLETE AND PRESENT ITSELF
AS A NEARLY-CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. LOOKING AT OTHER PARAMETERS...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP...WITH VALUES OF 6-7 C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE SHOWING TO BE ROUGHLY -6 TO -8. THIS WITH CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2000+ AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WILL
CREATE QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AREA. ALSO...DCAPE VALUES
WILL BE 300+...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ARE ILLUSTRATING A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SPEED
SHEAR VERSUS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WHILE EXPECT A LOW TORNADO
THREAT...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE
CELLS/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION-WISE...WHILE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LIFT...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PLAY A ROLE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL (LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING) AS IT
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DECENT MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES CLOSER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND THE ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BUT
BEING THAT THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL REMIND THAT
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY. ANY DECREASE/INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
COULD CHANGE THINGS ENTIRELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FALL COMES EARLY THIS YEAR...OR SO IT
SEEMS...AS THE END OF JULY AND BEGINNING OF AUGUST FEATURE A PATTERN
RARELY SEEN IN MID-SUMMER. THIS FALL LIKE PATTERN IS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH...PROGGED TO REACH -4 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THEN SITTING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
DRIER AIR...AS SHOWN BY PWATS AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH TUE-THU...AND A
THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...TEMPS WILL ALSO
STRUGGLE TO VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -2 SD`S...AND HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK...WILL KEEP POP SILENT ATTM. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL TRY TO BACK UP
TOWARDS THE COAST...CREATING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER POP
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRETTY QUIET NIGHT OVERALL WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE 5 KTS ALONG THE
COAST...PRECLUDING ANY FOG. INLAND...BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE LIGHT FOG STARTING AROUND 07-08Z...WITH POCKETS OF
IFR FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-11Z. SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PICK UP WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT THAT WILL
DROP INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SATURDAY...STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS
WITH LATEST OBS SHOWING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2 TO 3 FT
SEAS. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15 KT TONIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A MIX
OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1 TO 2
FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCEC POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY TUESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE DURING TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST...LEAVING A RELATIVE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...INCREASING SLOWLY TO 10-15
KTS BY THURSDAY. SEAS TUESDAY WILL BE 1-3 FT ON THE NW WINDS...BUT
THEN BECOME A MORE STEADY 2-3 FT LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND
INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING NE WIND WAVE DOMINATING THE
WAVE SPECTRUM. SEAS THURSDAY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE
STRONGER WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SGL/REK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 262342
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY...CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN ON MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF UNUSUALLY PERSISTENT AND
STATIONARY SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY MID LEVELS EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE IT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS FAR AS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS GOES. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST FOLLOWS:

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS BOTH EXTREME HEAT/HEAT INDICES AND SPRING-LIKE
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA. WITH A HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN
PLACE FOR ALL SOUTH CAROLINA INLAND COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
ROBESON...COLUMBUS...AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...WILL
ALSO FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AS WELL
WITH APPARENT TEMPS BOTH DAYS NEARING/AT/OR JUST ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES THANKS TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3. A STRONG AND VERY SPRING-LIKE DIGGING
TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE AREA IS NOT USUALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS
SUCH DURING THE MID-SUMMER MONTHS...THE SETUP IS BECOMING MUCH MORE
INTERESTING ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 95+ TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY...WHICH IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN A TYPICAL
SETUP LIKE THIS FOR APRIL/MAY. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UNFAVORABLE
LOCATION/NATURE OF THE JET...FOCUS TURNS TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA (MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING)...AND HAVE DECIDED TO UTILIZE GFS MORE IN
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN ANALYZING SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER VALUES.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY...REACHING UP TO 2 INCHES BY 18Z. WHILE TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES TO
KICK-START MONDAY MORNING AND THUS AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S. PER LATEST 12Z GFS FCST SOUNDINGS...A SLIGHT THERMAL RIDGE IS
PRESENT...BUT AGAIN GIVEN ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY...AN ADJUSTED SKEW-T WOULD MAKE THIS OBSOLETE AND PRESENT ITSELF
AS A NEARLY-CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. LOOKING AT OTHER PARAMETERS...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP...WITH VALUES OF 6-7 C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE SHOWING TO BE ROUGHLY -6 TO -8. THIS WITH CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2000+ AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WILL
CREATE QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AREA. ALSO...DCAPE VALUES
WILL BE 300+...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ARE ILLUSTRATING A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SPEED
SHEAR VERSUS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WHILE EXPECT A LOW TORNADO
THREAT...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE
CELLS/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION-WISE...WHILE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LIFT...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PLAY A ROLE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL (LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING) AS IT
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DECENT MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES CLOSER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND THE ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BUT
BEING THAT THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL REMIND THAT
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY. ANY DECREASE/INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
COULD CHANGE THINGS ENTIRELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FALL COMES EARLY THIS YEAR...OR SO IT
SEEMS...AS THE END OF JULY AND BEGINNING OF AUGUST FEATURE A PATTERN
RARELY SEEN IN MID-SUMMER. THIS FALL LIKE PATTERN IS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH...PROGGED TO REACH -4 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THEN SITTING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
DRIER AIR...AS SHOWN BY PWATS AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH TUE-THU...AND A
THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...TEMPS WILL ALSO
STRUGGLE TO VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -2 SD`S...AND HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK...WILL KEEP POP SILENT ATTM. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL TRY TO BACK UP
TOWARDS THE COAST...CREATING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER POP
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRETTY QUIET NIGHT OVERALL WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE 5 KTS ALONG THE
COAST...PRECLUDING ANY FOG. INLAND...BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE LIGHT FOG STARTING AROUND 07-08Z...WITH POCKETS OF
IFR FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-11Z. SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PICK UP WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT THAT WILL
DROP INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SATURDAY...STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS
WITH LATEST OBS SHOWING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2 TO 3 FT
SEAS. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15 KT TONIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A MIX
OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1 TO 2
FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCEC POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY TUESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE DURING TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST...LEAVING A RELATIVE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...INCREASING SLOWLY TO 10-15
KTS BY THURSDAY. SEAS TUESDAY WILL BE 1-3 FT ON THE NW WINDS...BUT
THEN BECOME A MORE STEADY 2-3 FT LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND
INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING NE WIND WAVE DOMINATING THE
WAVE SPECTRUM. SEAS THURSDAY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE
STRONGER WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SGL/REK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 262239
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY...CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN ON MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD WILL CROSS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...OUR ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY
RESISTANT TO PROSPECTS OF DEEP CONVECTION AS DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO DIG INTO THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE ON NORTHWEST
WIND TRAJECTORIES. NO SHORTAGE OF LOW-LEVEL VAPOR CONTENT WITH
MUGGY HEAT BOOSTING LOCAL HEAT INDICES TO 100 DEGREES CURRENTLY.
THIS WAS RESULTING IN A VIGOROUS BUT SUPPRESSED CUMULUS FIELD
AND AN OVERALL SWELTERING TONE TO OUTSIDE CONDITIONS INLAND.

SINCE OUR LOCAL ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR MATERIALIZATION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...POP VALUES WILL BE LOWERED
BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESH-HOLDS IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS PRIOR TO ZFP/CWF DISSEMINATION.

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS BOTH EXTREME HEAT/HEAT INDICES AND SPRING-LIKE
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA. WITH A HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN
PLACE FOR ALL SOUTH CAROLINA INLAND COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
ROBESON...COLUMBUS...AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...WILL
ALSO FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AS WELL
WITH APPARENT TEMPS BOTH DAYS NEARING/AT/OR JUST ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES THANKS TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3. A STRONG AND VERY SPRING-LIKE DIGGING
TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE AREA IS NOT USUALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS
SUCH DURING THE MID-SUMMER MONTHS...THE SETUP IS BECOMING MUCH MORE
INTERESTING ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 95+ TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY...WHICH IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN A TYPICAL
SETUP LIKE THIS FOR APRIL/MAY. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UNFAVORABLE
LOCATION/NATURE OF THE JET...FOCUS TURNS TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA (MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING)...AND HAVE DECIDED TO UTILIZE GFS MORE IN
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN ANALYZING SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER VALUES.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY...REACHING UP TO 2 INCHES BY 18Z. WHILE TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES TO
KICK-START MONDAY MORNING AND THUS AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S. PER LATEST 12Z GFS FCST SOUNDINGS...A SLIGHT THERMAL RIDGE IS
PRESENT...BUT AGAIN GIVEN ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY...AN ADJUSTED SKEW-T WOULD MAKE THIS OBSOLETE AND PRESENT ITSELF
AS A NEARLY-CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. LOOKING AT OTHER PARAMETERS...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP...WITH VALUES OF 6-7 C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE SHOWING TO BE ROUGHLY -6 TO -8. THIS WITH CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2000+ AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WILL
CREATE QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AREA. ALSO...DCAPE VALUES
WILL BE 300+...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ARE ILLUSTRATING A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SPEED
SHEAR VERSUS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WHILE EXPECT A LOW TORNADO
THREAT...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE
CELLS/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION-WISE...WHILE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LIFT...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PLAY A ROLE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL (LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING) AS IT
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DECENT MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES CLOSER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND THE ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BUT
BEING THAT THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL REMIND THAT
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY. ANY DECREASE/INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
COULD CHANGE THINGS ENTIRELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FALL COMES EARLY THIS YEAR...OR SO IT
SEEMS...AS THE END OF JULY AND BEGINNING OF AUGUST FEATURE A PATTERN
RARELY SEEN IN MID-SUMMER. THIS FALL LIKE PATTERN IS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH...PROGGED TO REACH -4 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THEN SITTING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
DRIER AIR...AS SHOWN BY PWATS AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH TUE-THU...AND A
THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...TEMPS WILL ALSO
STRUGGLE TO VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -2 SD`S...AND HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK...WILL KEEP POP SILENT ATTM. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL TRY TO BACK UP
TOWARDS THE COAST...CREATING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER POP
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRETTY QUIET NIGHT OVERALL WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE 5 KTS ALONG THE
COAST...PRECLUDING ANY FOG. INLAND...BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE LIGHT FOG STARTING AROUND 07-08Z...WITH POCKETS OF
IFR FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-11Z. SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PICK UP WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT THAT WILL
DROP INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE
TO INTERACTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND
HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15
KT TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN A MIX OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1
TO 2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCEC POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY TUESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE DURING TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST...LEAVING A RELATIVE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...INCREASING SLOWLY TO 10-15
KTS BY THURSDAY. SEAS TUESDAY WILL BE 1-3 FT ON THE NW WINDS...BUT
THEN BECOME A MORE STEADY 2-3 FT LATE TUESDAY....WEDNESDAY...AND
INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING NE WIND WAVE DOMINATING THE
WAVE SPECTRUM. SEAS THURSDAY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE
STRONGER WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW/SGL















000
FXUS62 KILM 262239
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY...CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN ON MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD WILL CROSS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...OUR ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY
RESISTANT TO PROSPECTS OF DEEP CONVECTION AS DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO DIG INTO THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE ON NORTHWEST
WIND TRAJECTORIES. NO SHORTAGE OF LOW-LEVEL VAPOR CONTENT WITH
MUGGY HEAT BOOSTING LOCAL HEAT INDICES TO 100 DEGREES CURRENTLY.
THIS WAS RESULTING IN A VIGOROUS BUT SUPPRESSED CUMULUS FIELD
AND AN OVERALL SWELTERING TONE TO OUTSIDE CONDITIONS INLAND.

SINCE OUR LOCAL ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR MATERIALIZATION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...POP VALUES WILL BE LOWERED
BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESH-HOLDS IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS PRIOR TO ZFP/CWF DISSEMINATION.

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS BOTH EXTREME HEAT/HEAT INDICES AND SPRING-LIKE
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA. WITH A HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN
PLACE FOR ALL SOUTH CAROLINA INLAND COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
ROBESON...COLUMBUS...AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...WILL
ALSO FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AS WELL
WITH APPARENT TEMPS BOTH DAYS NEARING/AT/OR JUST ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES THANKS TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3. A STRONG AND VERY SPRING-LIKE DIGGING
TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE AREA IS NOT USUALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS
SUCH DURING THE MID-SUMMER MONTHS...THE SETUP IS BECOMING MUCH MORE
INTERESTING ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 95+ TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY...WHICH IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN A TYPICAL
SETUP LIKE THIS FOR APRIL/MAY. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UNFAVORABLE
LOCATION/NATURE OF THE JET...FOCUS TURNS TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA (MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING)...AND HAVE DECIDED TO UTILIZE GFS MORE IN
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN ANALYZING SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER VALUES.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY...REACHING UP TO 2 INCHES BY 18Z. WHILE TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES TO
KICK-START MONDAY MORNING AND THUS AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S. PER LATEST 12Z GFS FCST SOUNDINGS...A SLIGHT THERMAL RIDGE IS
PRESENT...BUT AGAIN GIVEN ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY...AN ADJUSTED SKEW-T WOULD MAKE THIS OBSOLETE AND PRESENT ITSELF
AS A NEARLY-CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. LOOKING AT OTHER PARAMETERS...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP...WITH VALUES OF 6-7 C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE SHOWING TO BE ROUGHLY -6 TO -8. THIS WITH CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2000+ AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WILL
CREATE QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AREA. ALSO...DCAPE VALUES
WILL BE 300+...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ARE ILLUSTRATING A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SPEED
SHEAR VERSUS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WHILE EXPECT A LOW TORNADO
THREAT...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE
CELLS/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION-WISE...WHILE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LIFT...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PLAY A ROLE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL (LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING) AS IT
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DECENT MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES CLOSER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND THE ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BUT
BEING THAT THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL REMIND THAT
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY. ANY DECREASE/INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
COULD CHANGE THINGS ENTIRELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FALL COMES EARLY THIS YEAR...OR SO IT
SEEMS...AS THE END OF JULY AND BEGINNING OF AUGUST FEATURE A PATTERN
RARELY SEEN IN MID-SUMMER. THIS FALL LIKE PATTERN IS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH...PROGGED TO REACH -4 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THEN SITTING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
DRIER AIR...AS SHOWN BY PWATS AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH TUE-THU...AND A
THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...TEMPS WILL ALSO
STRUGGLE TO VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -2 SD`S...AND HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK...WILL KEEP POP SILENT ATTM. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL TRY TO BACK UP
TOWARDS THE COAST...CREATING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER POP
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRETTY QUIET NIGHT OVERALL WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE 5 KTS ALONG THE
COAST...PRECLUDING ANY FOG. INLAND...BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE LIGHT FOG STARTING AROUND 07-08Z...WITH POCKETS OF
IFR FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-11Z. SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PICK UP WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT THAT WILL
DROP INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE
TO INTERACTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND
HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15
KT TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN A MIX OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1
TO 2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCEC POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY TUESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE DURING TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST...LEAVING A RELATIVE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...INCREASING SLOWLY TO 10-15
KTS BY THURSDAY. SEAS TUESDAY WILL BE 1-3 FT ON THE NW WINDS...BUT
THEN BECOME A MORE STEADY 2-3 FT LATE TUESDAY....WEDNESDAY...AND
INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING NE WIND WAVE DOMINATING THE
WAVE SPECTRUM. SEAS THURSDAY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE
STRONGER WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW/SGL














000
FXUS62 KILM 262017
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
417 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY...CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN ON MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD WILL CROSS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...OUR ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY
RESISTANT TO PROSPECTS OF DEEP CONVECTION AS DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO DIG INTO THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE ON NORTHWEST
WIND TRAJECTORIES. NO SHORTAGE OF LOW-LEVEL VAPOR CONTENT WITH
MUGGY HEAT BOOSTING LOCAL HEAT INDICES TO 100 DEGREES CURRENTLY.
THIS WAS RESULTING IN A VIGOROUS BUT SUPPRESSED CUMULUS FIELD
AND AN OVERALL SWELTERING TONE TO OUTSIDE CONDITIONS INLAND.

SINCE OUR LOCAL ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR MATERIALIZATION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...POP VALUES WILL BE LOWERED
BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESH-HOLDS IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS PRIOR TO ZFP/CWF DISSEMINATION.

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS BOTH EXTREME HEAT/HEAT INDICES AND SPRING-LIKE
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA. WITH A HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN
PLACE FOR ALL SOUTH CAROLINA INLAND COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
ROBESON...COLUMBUS...AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...WILL
ALSO FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AS WELL
WITH APPARENT TEMPS BOTH DAYS NEARING/AT/OR JUST ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES THANKS TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3. A STRONG AND VERY SPRING-LIKE DIGGING
TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE AREA IS NOT USUALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS
SUCH DURING THE MID-SUMMER MONTHS...THE SETUP IS BECOMING MUCH MORE
INTERESTING ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 95+ TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY...WHICH IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN A TYPICAL
SETUP LIKE THIS FOR APRIL/MAY. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UNFAVORABLE
LOCATION/NATURE OF THE JET...FOCUS TURNS TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA (MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING)...AND HAVE DECIDED TO UTILIZE GFS MORE IN
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN ANALYZING SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER VALUES.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY...REACHING UP TO 2 INCHES BY 18Z. WHILE TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES TO
KICK-START MONDAY MORNING AND THUS AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S. PER LATEST 12Z GFS FCST SOUNDINGS...A SLIGHT THERMAL RIDGE IS
PRESENT...BUT AGAIN GIVEN ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY...AN ADJUSTED SKEW-T WOULD MAKE THIS OBSOLETE AND PRESENT ITSELF
AS A NEARLY-CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. LOOKING AT OTHER PARAMETERS...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP...WITH VALUES OF 6-7 C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE SHOWING TO BE ROUGHLY -6 TO -8. THIS WITH CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2000+ AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WILL
CREATE QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AREA. ALSO...DCAPE VALUES
WILL BE 300+...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ARE ILLUSTRATING A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SPEED
SHEAR VERSUS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WHILE EXPECT A LOW TORNADO
THREAT...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE
CELLS/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION-WISE...WHILE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LIFT...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PLAY A ROLE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL (LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING) AS IT
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DECENT MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES CLOSER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND THE ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BUT
BEING THAT THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL REMIND THAT
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY. ANY DECREASE/INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
COULD CHANGE THINGS ENTIRELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FALL COMES EARLY THIS YEAR...OR SO IT
SEEMS...AS THE END OF JULY AND BEGINNING OF AUGUST FEATURE A PATTERN
RARELY SEEN IN MID-SUMMER. THIS FALL LIKE PATTERN IS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH...PROGGED TO REACH -4 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THEN SITTING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
DRIER AIR...AS SHOWN BY PWATS AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH TUE-THU...AND A
THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...TEMPS WILL ALSO
STRUGGLE TO VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -2 SD`S...AND HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK...WILL KEEP POP SILENT ATTM. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL TRY TO BACK UP
TOWARDS THE COAST...CREATING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER POP
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SW WITH STRONGEST
AVERAGE WINDS OF 8-15 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TWO SFC BASED FEATURES...THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT
TROF...WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE HOSTILE AS THE EVENING APPROACHES.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED...AND AS SUCH WILL NOT MENTION ANY
CONVECTION IN TAFS EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KILM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AS ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES. ALTHOUGH
WINDS DECREASE THEY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT SCT IFR STRATUS
AND MVFR VSBYS IN BR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MAINLY AT
THE INLAND TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. BY 14-16Z WINDS WILL BECOME SSW 10-15 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE
TO INTERACTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND
HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15
KT TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN A MIX OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1
TO 2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCEC POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
...INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY TUESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE DURING TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST...LEAVING A RELATIVE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...INCREASING SLOWLY TO 10-15
KTS BY THURSDAY. SEAS TUESDAY WILL BE 1-3 FT ON THE NW WINDS...BUT
THEN BECOME A MORE STEADY 2-3 FT LATE TUESDAY....WEDNESDAY...AND
INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING NE WIND WAVE DOMINATING THE
WAVE SPECTRUM. SEAS THURSDAY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE
STRONGER WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/MRR
MARINE...MJC/JDW/SGL











000
FXUS62 KILM 262017
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
417 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY...CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN ON MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD WILL CROSS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...OUR ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY
RESISTANT TO PROSPECTS OF DEEP CONVECTION AS DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO DIG INTO THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE ON NORTHWEST
WIND TRAJECTORIES. NO SHORTAGE OF LOW-LEVEL VAPOR CONTENT WITH
MUGGY HEAT BOOSTING LOCAL HEAT INDICES TO 100 DEGREES CURRENTLY.
THIS WAS RESULTING IN A VIGOROUS BUT SUPPRESSED CUMULUS FIELD
AND AN OVERALL SWELTERING TONE TO OUTSIDE CONDITIONS INLAND.

SINCE OUR LOCAL ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR MATERIALIZATION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...POP VALUES WILL BE LOWERED
BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESH-HOLDS IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS PRIOR TO ZFP/CWF DISSEMINATION.

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS BOTH EXTREME HEAT/HEAT INDICES AND SPRING-LIKE
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA. WITH A HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN
PLACE FOR ALL SOUTH CAROLINA INLAND COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
ROBESON...COLUMBUS...AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...WILL
ALSO FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AS WELL
WITH APPARENT TEMPS BOTH DAYS NEARING/AT/OR JUST ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES THANKS TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3. A STRONG AND VERY SPRING-LIKE DIGGING
TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE AREA IS NOT USUALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS
SUCH DURING THE MID-SUMMER MONTHS...THE SETUP IS BECOMING MUCH MORE
INTERESTING ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 95+ TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY...WHICH IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN A TYPICAL
SETUP LIKE THIS FOR APRIL/MAY. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UNFAVORABLE
LOCATION/NATURE OF THE JET...FOCUS TURNS TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA (MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING)...AND HAVE DECIDED TO UTILIZE GFS MORE IN
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN ANALYZING SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER VALUES.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY...REACHING UP TO 2 INCHES BY 18Z. WHILE TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES TO
KICK-START MONDAY MORNING AND THUS AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S. PER LATEST 12Z GFS FCST SOUNDINGS...A SLIGHT THERMAL RIDGE IS
PRESENT...BUT AGAIN GIVEN ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY...AN ADJUSTED SKEW-T WOULD MAKE THIS OBSOLETE AND PRESENT ITSELF
AS A NEARLY-CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. LOOKING AT OTHER PARAMETERS...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP...WITH VALUES OF 6-7 C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE SHOWING TO BE ROUGHLY -6 TO -8. THIS WITH CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2000+ AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WILL
CREATE QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AREA. ALSO...DCAPE VALUES
WILL BE 300+...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ARE ILLUSTRATING A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SPEED
SHEAR VERSUS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WHILE EXPECT A LOW TORNADO
THREAT...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE
CELLS/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION-WISE...WHILE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LIFT...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PLAY A ROLE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL (LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING) AS IT
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DECENT MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES CLOSER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND THE ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BUT
BEING THAT THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL REMIND THAT
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY. ANY DECREASE/INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
COULD CHANGE THINGS ENTIRELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FALL COMES EARLY THIS YEAR...OR SO IT
SEEMS...AS THE END OF JULY AND BEGINNING OF AUGUST FEATURE A PATTERN
RARELY SEEN IN MID-SUMMER. THIS FALL LIKE PATTERN IS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH...PROGGED TO REACH -4 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THEN SITTING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
DRIER AIR...AS SHOWN BY PWATS AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH TUE-THU...AND A
THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...TEMPS WILL ALSO
STRUGGLE TO VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -2 SD`S...AND HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK...WILL KEEP POP SILENT ATTM. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL TRY TO BACK UP
TOWARDS THE COAST...CREATING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER POP
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SW WITH STRONGEST
AVERAGE WINDS OF 8-15 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TWO SFC BASED FEATURES...THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT
TROF...WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE HOSTILE AS THE EVENING APPROACHES.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED...AND AS SUCH WILL NOT MENTION ANY
CONVECTION IN TAFS EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KILM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AS ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES. ALTHOUGH
WINDS DECREASE THEY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT SCT IFR STRATUS
AND MVFR VSBYS IN BR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MAINLY AT
THE INLAND TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. BY 14-16Z WINDS WILL BECOME SSW 10-15 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE
TO INTERACTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND
HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15
KT TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN A MIX OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1
TO 2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCEC POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
...INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY TUESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE DURING TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST...LEAVING A RELATIVE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...INCREASING SLOWLY TO 10-15
KTS BY THURSDAY. SEAS TUESDAY WILL BE 1-3 FT ON THE NW WINDS...BUT
THEN BECOME A MORE STEADY 2-3 FT LATE TUESDAY....WEDNESDAY...AND
INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING NE WIND WAVE DOMINATING THE
WAVE SPECTRUM. SEAS THURSDAY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE
STRONGER WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/MRR
MARINE...MJC/JDW/SGL












000
FXUS62 KILM 261755
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
155 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL CIRCULATE HOT AND HUMID AIR
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON MONDAY. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND HUMID LATE JULY SATURDAY UNDERWAY
AND NOTHING UNCOMMON IN THAT. CONVECTIVE FORECASTS TODAY HOWEVER
ARE MURKY...AS OPPOSING ATMOSPHERIC ELEMENTS INTERACT INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ALOFT WE ARE SEEING BUILDING HEIGHT RISES AS AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NE OFF OUR COAST. THIS WILL SOON IMPART SLIGHT
SINKING OF AIR INTO PRIME SURFACE HEATING. VWP PRESENTLY SHOWS NW
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY AIR PARCELS. THIS CAN BE A PROBLEM AT TIMES
WHEN CELLS MOVE INTO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT NEARLY DIRECTLY CAUSING
SPIKED CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW BASED ON CLOUD COVER WE CAN INFER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS ARE MOVING AND A ROBUST
CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD SUSTAIN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL TURBULENCE. 18Z
ONWARD DRY AIR INTRUSION ALOFT FROM THE NW DIVES DOWNWARD TO 8
KFT. ESSENTIALLY CONVECTION LOOKS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY THWARTED
INTO THE MAXIMUM OF INSOLATION. TO REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST
WE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST BUT SHOW A QUICK
TREND OF DISSIPATION IN THE LATER AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING.
EVEN IN DRYING ALOFT PWATS REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL DICTATE WHERE INITIAL POPS ARE PLANNED EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPANDING THESE MENTIONABLE POPS WEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF OUR ZONES THROUGH AFTERNOON PRIOR TO
DIMINISHING.

JULY HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S HAS ALREADY BROUGHT
HEAT INDICES TO 90 DEGREES AND WE ARE LOOKING TO TOP OUT AT AN
APPARENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 100 DEGREES...WITH MAXIMUM
AIR TEMPS OF UPPER 80S NEAR THE OCEAN TO LOWER 90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS ON BOTH SUN AND MON RUNNING WELL INTO THE 90S. MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAPPING AROUND 800 MB...A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE 5H RIDGE. CAPPING ALONG WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION HARD TO COME BY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHORT LIVED SHOWER ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT
NOTHING WORTH CARRYING A POP ABOVE 10%. 850 TEMPS IN THE 20C TO 22C
RANGE AND LACK OF MUCH CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE. DESPITE LIMITED CLOUD COVER SUN
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE KEPT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH IMPRESSIVE 5H
TROUGH THE DRIVING FACTOR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON MON...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. MON IS ALSO SHAPING UP TO BE A HOT
DAY WITH 850 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20C RANGE. HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL NOT ONLY PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105F...LIKELY WARRANTING A HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MID
LEVEL COOLING COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT APPEARS THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BASED ON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPC HAS  PLACED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAY 3.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NOTICEABLE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM MON AFTERNOON
TO TUE AFTERNOON AS BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE LACKING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TUE WHILE
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA FOR THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MID LEVELS DRY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED BUT DIFFER ON ITS
STRENGTH AND IMPACT. WILL NOT BE ADDING ANY PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFICULTY IN ACCURATELY DEPICTING SUCH
FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...PWATS BARELY EXCEED 1.25 INCHES DURING THE
PERIOD...SO DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE SCARCE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK A MENTIONABLE
POP IS WARRANTED. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR THE COAST...ALONG OR
JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT EVEN HERE COVERAGE ABOVE 20% IS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SW WITH STRONGEST
AVERAGE WINDS OF 8-15 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TWO SFC BASED FEATURES...THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT
TROF...WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE HOSTILE AS THE EVENING APPROACHES.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED...AND AS SUCH WILL NOT MENTION ANY
CONVECTION IN TAFS EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KILM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AS ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES. ALTHOUGH
WINDS DECREASE THEY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT SCT IFR STRATUS
AND MVFR VSBYS IN BR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MAINLY AT
THE INLAND TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. BY 14-16Z WINDS WILL BECOME SSW 10-15 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS IS PROGGED TO BECOME STRONGER THRU TONIGHT. RIDGING FROM
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL EXTEND WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WATERS. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE 2
FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THAT YIELDS AT LEAST
15 KT FOR SPEEDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL TRANSITION INTO A SW FLOW DIRECTION TODAY THRU TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS INITIALLY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 2 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LOCALLY PRODUCED
WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AND COVERAGE AND LIKELY BECOME
THE MORE DOMINATE OF THE 2. SEVEN SECOND DOMINATE PERIODS WILL
OCCUR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEADLINES FOR ALL ZONES LATER SUN NIGHT
AND MON. NATURE OF THE HEADLINES IS AS OF YET UNDETERMINED. IT MAY
END UP THAT SCEC IS NEEDED SUN NIGHT AND THEN SCA MON AND PART OF
MON NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT SUN WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID
20 KT SUN NIGHT AND MON. COMBINATION OF PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS BUILDS SEAS FROM 3 TO 4 FT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TO 4 TO 6 FT ON MON. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT LATER MON NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY
TUE MORNING. OFFSHORE COMPONENT AND DECREASE IN SPEEDS LATE MON
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SEAS FALLING TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...LEAVING A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT TUE INTO WED.
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ON WED WITH 10 TO 15 KT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL TREND DOWN TUE AND TUE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT AS WIND FIELD BECOMES MORE DEFINED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...3
AVIATION...MRR/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 261755
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
155 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL CIRCULATE HOT AND HUMID AIR
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON MONDAY. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND HUMID LATE JULY SATURDAY UNDERWAY
AND NOTHING UNCOMMON IN THAT. CONVECTIVE FORECASTS TODAY HOWEVER
ARE MURKY...AS OPPOSING ATMOSPHERIC ELEMENTS INTERACT INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ALOFT WE ARE SEEING BUILDING HEIGHT RISES AS AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NE OFF OUR COAST. THIS WILL SOON IMPART SLIGHT
SINKING OF AIR INTO PRIME SURFACE HEATING. VWP PRESENTLY SHOWS NW
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY AIR PARCELS. THIS CAN BE A PROBLEM AT TIMES
WHEN CELLS MOVE INTO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT NEARLY DIRECTLY CAUSING
SPIKED CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW BASED ON CLOUD COVER WE CAN INFER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS ARE MOVING AND A ROBUST
CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD SUSTAIN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL TURBULENCE. 18Z
ONWARD DRY AIR INTRUSION ALOFT FROM THE NW DIVES DOWNWARD TO 8
KFT. ESSENTIALLY CONVECTION LOOKS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY THWARTED
INTO THE MAXIMUM OF INSOLATION. TO REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST
WE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST BUT SHOW A QUICK
TREND OF DISSIPATION IN THE LATER AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING.
EVEN IN DRYING ALOFT PWATS REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL DICTATE WHERE INITIAL POPS ARE PLANNED EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPANDING THESE MENTIONABLE POPS WEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF OUR ZONES THROUGH AFTERNOON PRIOR TO
DIMINISHING.

JULY HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S HAS ALREADY BROUGHT
HEAT INDICES TO 90 DEGREES AND WE ARE LOOKING TO TOP OUT AT AN
APPARENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 100 DEGREES...WITH MAXIMUM
AIR TEMPS OF UPPER 80S NEAR THE OCEAN TO LOWER 90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS ON BOTH SUN AND MON RUNNING WELL INTO THE 90S. MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAPPING AROUND 800 MB...A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE 5H RIDGE. CAPPING ALONG WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION HARD TO COME BY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHORT LIVED SHOWER ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT
NOTHING WORTH CARRYING A POP ABOVE 10%. 850 TEMPS IN THE 20C TO 22C
RANGE AND LACK OF MUCH CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE. DESPITE LIMITED CLOUD COVER SUN
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE KEPT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH IMPRESSIVE 5H
TROUGH THE DRIVING FACTOR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON MON...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. MON IS ALSO SHAPING UP TO BE A HOT
DAY WITH 850 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20C RANGE. HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL NOT ONLY PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105F...LIKELY WARRANTING A HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MID
LEVEL COOLING COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT APPEARS THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BASED ON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPC HAS  PLACED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAY 3.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NOTICEABLE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM MON AFTERNOON
TO TUE AFTERNOON AS BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE LACKING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TUE WHILE
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA FOR THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MID LEVELS DRY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED BUT DIFFER ON ITS
STRENGTH AND IMPACT. WILL NOT BE ADDING ANY PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFICULTY IN ACCURATELY DEPICTING SUCH
FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...PWATS BARELY EXCEED 1.25 INCHES DURING THE
PERIOD...SO DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE SCARCE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK A MENTIONABLE
POP IS WARRANTED. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR THE COAST...ALONG OR
JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT EVEN HERE COVERAGE ABOVE 20% IS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SW WITH STRONGEST
AVERAGE WINDS OF 8-15 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TWO SFC BASED FEATURES...THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT
TROF...WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE HOSTILE AS THE EVENING APPROACHES.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED...AND AS SUCH WILL NOT MENTION ANY
CONVECTION IN TAFS EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KILM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AS ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES. ALTHOUGH
WINDS DECREASE THEY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT SCT IFR STRATUS
AND MVFR VSBYS IN BR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MAINLY AT
THE INLAND TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. BY 14-16Z WINDS WILL BECOME SSW 10-15 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS IS PROGGED TO BECOME STRONGER THRU TONIGHT. RIDGING FROM
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL EXTEND WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WATERS. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE 2
FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THAT YIELDS AT LEAST
15 KT FOR SPEEDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL TRANSITION INTO A SW FLOW DIRECTION TODAY THRU TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS INITIALLY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 2 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LOCALLY PRODUCED
WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AND COVERAGE AND LIKELY BECOME
THE MORE DOMINATE OF THE 2. SEVEN SECOND DOMINATE PERIODS WILL
OCCUR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEADLINES FOR ALL ZONES LATER SUN NIGHT
AND MON. NATURE OF THE HEADLINES IS AS OF YET UNDETERMINED. IT MAY
END UP THAT SCEC IS NEEDED SUN NIGHT AND THEN SCA MON AND PART OF
MON NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT SUN WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID
20 KT SUN NIGHT AND MON. COMBINATION OF PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS BUILDS SEAS FROM 3 TO 4 FT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TO 4 TO 6 FT ON MON. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT LATER MON NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY
TUE MORNING. OFFSHORE COMPONENT AND DECREASE IN SPEEDS LATE MON
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SEAS FALLING TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...LEAVING A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT TUE INTO WED.
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ON WED WITH 10 TO 15 KT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL TREND DOWN TUE AND TUE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT AS WIND FIELD BECOMES MORE DEFINED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...3
AVIATION...MRR/8






000
FXUS62 KILM 261438
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1038 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL CIRCULATE HOT AND HUMID AIR
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON MONDAY. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND HUMID LATE JULY SATURDAY UNDERWAY
AND NOTHING UNCOMMON IN THAT. CONVECTIVE FORECASTS TODAY HOWEVER
ARE MURKY...AS OPPOSING ATMOSPHERIC ELEMENTS INTERACT INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ALOFT WE ARE SEEING BUILDING HEIGHT RISES AS AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NE OFF OUR COAST. THIS WILL SOON IMPART SLIGHT
SINKING OF AIR INTO PRIME SURFACE HEATING. VWP PRESENTLY SHOWS NW
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY AIR PARCELS. THIS CAN BE A PROBLEM AT TIMES
WHEN CELLS MOVE INTO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT NEARLY DIRECTLY CAUSING
SPIKED CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW BASED ON CLOUD COVER WE CAN INFER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS ARE MOVING AND A ROBUST
CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD SUSTAIN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL TURBULENCE. 18Z
ONWARD DRY AIR INTRUSION ALOFT FROM THE NW DIVES DOWNWARD TO 8
KFT. ESSENTIALLY CONVECTION LOOKS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY THWARTED
INTO THE MAXIMUM OF INSOLATION. TO REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST
WE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST BUT SHOW A QUICK
TREND OF DISSIPATION IN THE LATER AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING.
EVEN IN DRYING ALOFT PWATS REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL DICTATE WHERE INITIAL POPS ARE PLANNED EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPANDING THESE MENTIONABLE POPS WEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF OUR ZONES THROUGH AFTERNOON PRIOR TO
DIMINISHING.

JULY HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S HAS ALREADY BROUGHT
HEAT INDICES TO 90 DEGREES AND WE ARE LOOKING TO TOP OUT AT AN
APPARENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 100 DEGREES...WITH MAXIMUM
AIR TEMPS OF UPPER 80S NEAR THE OCEAN TO LOWER 90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS ON BOTH SUN AND MON RUNNING WELL INTO THE 90S. MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAPPING AROUND 800 MB...A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE 5H RIDGE. CAPPING ALONG WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION HARD TO COME BY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHORT LIVED SHOWER ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT
NOTHING WORTH CARRYING A POP ABOVE 10%. 850 TEMPS IN THE 20C TO 22C
RANGE AND LACK OF MUCH CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE. DESPITE LIMITED CLOUD COVER SUN
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE KEPT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH IMPRESSIVE 5H
TROUGH THE DRIVING FACTOR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON MON...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. MON IS ALSO SHAPING UP TO BE A HOT
DAY WITH 850 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20C RANGE. HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL NOT ONLY PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105F...LIKELY WARRANTING A HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MID
LEVEL COOLING COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT APPEARS THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BASED ON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPC HAS  PLACED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAY 3.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NOTICEABLE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM MON AFTERNOON
TO TUE AFTERNOON AS BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE LACKING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TUE WHILE
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA FOR THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MID LEVELS DRY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED BUT DIFFER ON ITS
STRENGTH AND IMPACT. WILL NOT BE ADDING ANY PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFICULTY IN ACCURATELY DEPICTING SUCH
FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...PWATS BARELY EXCEED 1.25 INCHES DURING THE
PERIOD...SO DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE SCARCE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK A MENTIONABLE
POP IS WARRANTED. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR THE COAST...ALONG OR
JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT EVEN HERE COVERAGE ABOVE 20% IS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KFLO/KLBT SHOULD
QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13-14Z. SOME OF THIS IFR STRATUS COULD ADVECT TO
THE KILM TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF...BUT THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF AN IFR CIG. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF TEMPO
MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING..OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
18Z. LGT/VRBL TO LGT W WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONGEST AVERAGE WINDS OF 8-15 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TWO SFC BASED FEATURES...THE SEA
BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR
POSSIBLE CONVECTION. HOWEVER LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT AND PROGGED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIMITED TO
ISOLATED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE WILL NOT MENTION TS IN TAFS.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AS ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES. ALTHOUGH
WINDS DECREASE THEY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT SCT IFR STRATUS
AND MVFR VSBYS IN BR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MAINLY AT
THE INLAND TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS IS PROGGED TO BECOME STRONGER THRU TONIGHT. RIDGING FROM
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL EXTEND WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WATERS. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE 2
FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THAT YIELDS AT LEAST
15 KT FOR SPEEDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL TRANSITION INTO A SW FLOW DIRECTION TODAY THRU TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS INITIALLY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 2 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LOCALLY PRODUCED
WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AND COVERAGE AND LIKELY BECOME
THE MORE DOMINATE OF THE 2. SEVEN SECOND DOMINATE PERIODS WILL
OCCUR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEADLINES FOR ALL ZONES LATER SUN NIGHT
AND MON. NATURE OF THE HEADLINES IS AS OF YET UNDETERMINED. IT MAY
END UP THAT SCEC IS NEEDED SUN NIGHT AND THEN SCA MON AND PART OF
MON NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT SUN WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID
20 KT SUN NIGHT AND MON. COMBINATION OF PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS BUILDS SEAS FROM 3 TO 4 FT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TO 4 TO 6 FT ON MON. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT LATER MON NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY
TUE MORNING. OFFSHORE COMPONENT AND DECREASE IN SPEEDS LATE MON
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SEAS FALLING TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...LEAVING A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT TUE INTO WED.
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ON WED WITH 10 TO 15 KT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL TREND DOWN TUE AND TUE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT AS WIND FIELD BECOMES MORE DEFINED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/MJC






000
FXUS62 KILM 261438
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1038 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL CIRCULATE HOT AND HUMID AIR
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON MONDAY. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND HUMID LATE JULY SATURDAY UNDERWAY
AND NOTHING UNCOMMON IN THAT. CONVECTIVE FORECASTS TODAY HOWEVER
ARE MURKY...AS OPPOSING ATMOSPHERIC ELEMENTS INTERACT INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ALOFT WE ARE SEEING BUILDING HEIGHT RISES AS AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NE OFF OUR COAST. THIS WILL SOON IMPART SLIGHT
SINKING OF AIR INTO PRIME SURFACE HEATING. VWP PRESENTLY SHOWS NW
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY AIR PARCELS. THIS CAN BE A PROBLEM AT TIMES
WHEN CELLS MOVE INTO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT NEARLY DIRECTLY CAUSING
SPIKED CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW BASED ON CLOUD COVER WE CAN INFER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS ARE MOVING AND A ROBUST
CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD SUSTAIN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL TURBULENCE. 18Z
ONWARD DRY AIR INTRUSION ALOFT FROM THE NW DIVES DOWNWARD TO 8
KFT. ESSENTIALLY CONVECTION LOOKS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY THWARTED
INTO THE MAXIMUM OF INSOLATION. TO REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST
WE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST BUT SHOW A QUICK
TREND OF DISSIPATION IN THE LATER AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING.
EVEN IN DRYING ALOFT PWATS REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL DICTATE WHERE INITIAL POPS ARE PLANNED EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPANDING THESE MENTIONABLE POPS WEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF OUR ZONES THROUGH AFTERNOON PRIOR TO
DIMINISHING.

JULY HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S HAS ALREADY BROUGHT
HEAT INDICES TO 90 DEGREES AND WE ARE LOOKING TO TOP OUT AT AN
APPARENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 100 DEGREES...WITH MAXIMUM
AIR TEMPS OF UPPER 80S NEAR THE OCEAN TO LOWER 90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS ON BOTH SUN AND MON RUNNING WELL INTO THE 90S. MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAPPING AROUND 800 MB...A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE 5H RIDGE. CAPPING ALONG WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION HARD TO COME BY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHORT LIVED SHOWER ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT
NOTHING WORTH CARRYING A POP ABOVE 10%. 850 TEMPS IN THE 20C TO 22C
RANGE AND LACK OF MUCH CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE. DESPITE LIMITED CLOUD COVER SUN
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE KEPT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH IMPRESSIVE 5H
TROUGH THE DRIVING FACTOR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON MON...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. MON IS ALSO SHAPING UP TO BE A HOT
DAY WITH 850 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20C RANGE. HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL NOT ONLY PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105F...LIKELY WARRANTING A HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MID
LEVEL COOLING COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT APPEARS THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BASED ON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPC HAS  PLACED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAY 3.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NOTICEABLE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM MON AFTERNOON
TO TUE AFTERNOON AS BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE LACKING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TUE WHILE
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA FOR THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MID LEVELS DRY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED BUT DIFFER ON ITS
STRENGTH AND IMPACT. WILL NOT BE ADDING ANY PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFICULTY IN ACCURATELY DEPICTING SUCH
FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...PWATS BARELY EXCEED 1.25 INCHES DURING THE
PERIOD...SO DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE SCARCE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK A MENTIONABLE
POP IS WARRANTED. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR THE COAST...ALONG OR
JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT EVEN HERE COVERAGE ABOVE 20% IS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KFLO/KLBT SHOULD
QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13-14Z. SOME OF THIS IFR STRATUS COULD ADVECT TO
THE KILM TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF...BUT THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF AN IFR CIG. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF TEMPO
MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING..OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
18Z. LGT/VRBL TO LGT W WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONGEST AVERAGE WINDS OF 8-15 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TWO SFC BASED FEATURES...THE SEA
BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR
POSSIBLE CONVECTION. HOWEVER LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT AND PROGGED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIMITED TO
ISOLATED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE WILL NOT MENTION TS IN TAFS.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AS ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES. ALTHOUGH
WINDS DECREASE THEY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT SCT IFR STRATUS
AND MVFR VSBYS IN BR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MAINLY AT
THE INLAND TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS IS PROGGED TO BECOME STRONGER THRU TONIGHT. RIDGING FROM
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL EXTEND WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WATERS. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE 2
FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THAT YIELDS AT LEAST
15 KT FOR SPEEDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL TRANSITION INTO A SW FLOW DIRECTION TODAY THRU TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS INITIALLY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 2 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LOCALLY PRODUCED
WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AND COVERAGE AND LIKELY BECOME
THE MORE DOMINATE OF THE 2. SEVEN SECOND DOMINATE PERIODS WILL
OCCUR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEADLINES FOR ALL ZONES LATER SUN NIGHT
AND MON. NATURE OF THE HEADLINES IS AS OF YET UNDETERMINED. IT MAY
END UP THAT SCEC IS NEEDED SUN NIGHT AND THEN SCA MON AND PART OF
MON NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT SUN WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID
20 KT SUN NIGHT AND MON. COMBINATION OF PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS BUILDS SEAS FROM 3 TO 4 FT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TO 4 TO 6 FT ON MON. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT LATER MON NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY
TUE MORNING. OFFSHORE COMPONENT AND DECREASE IN SPEEDS LATE MON
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SEAS FALLING TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...LEAVING A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT TUE INTO WED.
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ON WED WITH 10 TO 15 KT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL TREND DOWN TUE AND TUE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT AS WIND FIELD BECOMES MORE DEFINED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/MJC







000
FXUS62 KILM 261144
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
744 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. ANOTHER UNUSUALLY STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...BEWARE THE NW FLOW!...A BATTLE CRY THATS
BEEN USED HERE WHEN FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NW AND VARIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SAYING VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. IN
FACT...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE KEEP POPS EVEN BELOW ISOLATED
CHANCE. WITH THAT SAID...ITS DIFFICULT TO BEGIN WITH TO INDICATE A
POP-LESS FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE SEA BREEZE...
PIEDMONT TROF...AND WHATS LEFT OF A STATIONARY FRONT...SHOULD ALL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO ENABLE CONVECTION INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS DO ILLUSTRATE MUCH NOISE IN THE
MID-LEVELS WITH REFERENCE TO THE MOVEMENT OF S/W TROFS OR VORTS
ACROSS THE FA THRU TONIGHT. THEY ALSO SHOW NVA AND SUBSIDENCE
PASSING OVERHEAD AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
SOUNDING DATA...IE. HOURLY NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS...AN IDENTIFIABLE
WEAK TO MODEST TEMP INVERSION IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ALOFT...MAINLY
BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB. THIS WOULD DEFINITELY PUT A DAMPER ON
CONVECTION INITIATION. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...WILL STILL
INDICATE POPS...ALBEIT ISOLATED...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS FOR TEMPS...MODEL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND 90 FOR
AFTN MAXES...INCLUDING THE BEACHES. GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE
TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT...WILL GO A DEGREE OR 3 HIGHER
THAN MODEL MOS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THIS MEANS WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE
READINGS TODAY...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES WHERE UPPER 80S TO
PREVAIL. WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS TODAY...BUT FOR
THE NEXT 2 DAYS THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS ON BOTH SUN AND MON RUNNING WELL INTO THE 90S. MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAPPING AROUND 800 MB...A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE 5H RIDGE. CAPPING ALONG WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION HARD TO COME BY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHORT LIVED SHOWER ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT
NOTHING WORTH CARRYING A POP ABOVE 10%. 850 TEMPS IN THE 20C TO 22C
RANGE AND LACK OF MUCH CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE. DESPITE LIMITED CLOUD COVER SUN
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE KEPT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH IMPRESSIVE 5H
TROUGH THE DRIVING FACTOR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON MON...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. MON IS ALSO SHAPING UP TO BE A HOT
DAY WITH 850 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20C RANGE. HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL NOT ONLY PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105F...LIKELY WARRANTING A HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MID
LEVEL COOLING COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT APPEARS THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BASED ON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPC HAS  PLACED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAY 3.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NOTICEABLE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM MON AFTERNOON
TO TUE AFTERNOON AS BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE LACKING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TUE WHILE
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA FOR THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MID LEVELS DRY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED BUT DIFFER ON ITS
STRENGTH AND IMPACT. WILL NOT BE ADDING ANY PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFICULTY IN ACCURATELY DEPICTING SUCH
FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...PWATS BARELY EXCEED 1.25 INCHES DURING THE
PERIOD...SO DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE SCARCE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK A MENTIONABLE
POP IS WARRANTED. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR THE COAST...ALONG OR
JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT EVEN HERE COVERAGE ABOVE 20% IS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KFLO/KLBT SHOULD
QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13-14Z. SOME OF THIS IFR STRATUS COULD ADVECT TO
THE KILM TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF...BUT THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF AN IFR CIG. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF TEMPO
MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING..OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
18Z. LGT/VRBL TO LGT W WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONGEST AVERAGE WINDS OF 8-15 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TWO SFC BASED FEATURES...THE SEA
BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR
POSSIBLE CONVECTION. HOWEVER LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT AND PROGGED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIMITED TO
ISOLATED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE WILL NOT MENTION TS IN TAFS.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AS ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES. ALTHOUGH
WINDS DECREASE THEY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT SCT IFR STRATUS
AND MVFR VSBYS IN BR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MAINLY AT
THE INLAND TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...THE OLD STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE
AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE PIEDMONT TROF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IS PROGGED TO BECOME STRONGER THRU
TONIGHT. RIDGING FROM THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL EXTEND
WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
AND GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT THAT YIELDS AT LEAST 15 KT FOR SPEEDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION INTO A SW FLOW
DIRECTION TODAY THRU TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS INITIALLY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 2 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LOCALLY PRODUCED
WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AND COVERAGE AND LIKELY BECOME
THE MORE DOMINATE OF THE 2. SEVEN SECOND DOMINATE PERIODS WILL
OCCUR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEADLINES FOR ALL ZONES LATER SUN NIGHT
AND MON. NATURE OF THE HEADLINES IS AS OF YET UNDETERMINED. IT MAY
END UP THAT SCEC IS NEEDED SUN NIGHT AND THEN SCA MON AND PART OF
MON NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT SUN WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID
20 KT SUN NIGHT AND MON. COMBINATION OF PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS BUILDS SEAS FROM 3 TO 4 FT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TO 4 TO 6 FT ON MON. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT LATER MON NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY
TUE MORNING. OFFSHORE COMPONENT AND DECREASE IN SPEEDS LATE MON
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SEAS FALLING TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...LEAVING A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT TUE INTO WED.
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ON WED WITH 10 TO 15 KT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL TREND DOWN TUE AND TUE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT AS WIND FIELD BECOMES MORE DEFINED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 261144
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
744 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. ANOTHER UNUSUALLY STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...BEWARE THE NW FLOW!...A BATTLE CRY THATS
BEEN USED HERE WHEN FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NW AND VARIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SAYING VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. IN
FACT...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE KEEP POPS EVEN BELOW ISOLATED
CHANCE. WITH THAT SAID...ITS DIFFICULT TO BEGIN WITH TO INDICATE A
POP-LESS FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE SEA BREEZE...
PIEDMONT TROF...AND WHATS LEFT OF A STATIONARY FRONT...SHOULD ALL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO ENABLE CONVECTION INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS DO ILLUSTRATE MUCH NOISE IN THE
MID-LEVELS WITH REFERENCE TO THE MOVEMENT OF S/W TROFS OR VORTS
ACROSS THE FA THRU TONIGHT. THEY ALSO SHOW NVA AND SUBSIDENCE
PASSING OVERHEAD AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
SOUNDING DATA...IE. HOURLY NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS...AN IDENTIFIABLE
WEAK TO MODEST TEMP INVERSION IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ALOFT...MAINLY
BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB. THIS WOULD DEFINITELY PUT A DAMPER ON
CONVECTION INITIATION. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...WILL STILL
INDICATE POPS...ALBEIT ISOLATED...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS FOR TEMPS...MODEL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND 90 FOR
AFTN MAXES...INCLUDING THE BEACHES. GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE
TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT...WILL GO A DEGREE OR 3 HIGHER
THAN MODEL MOS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THIS MEANS WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE
READINGS TODAY...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES WHERE UPPER 80S TO
PREVAIL. WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS TODAY...BUT FOR
THE NEXT 2 DAYS THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS ON BOTH SUN AND MON RUNNING WELL INTO THE 90S. MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAPPING AROUND 800 MB...A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE 5H RIDGE. CAPPING ALONG WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION HARD TO COME BY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHORT LIVED SHOWER ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT
NOTHING WORTH CARRYING A POP ABOVE 10%. 850 TEMPS IN THE 20C TO 22C
RANGE AND LACK OF MUCH CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE. DESPITE LIMITED CLOUD COVER SUN
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE KEPT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH IMPRESSIVE 5H
TROUGH THE DRIVING FACTOR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON MON...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. MON IS ALSO SHAPING UP TO BE A HOT
DAY WITH 850 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20C RANGE. HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL NOT ONLY PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105F...LIKELY WARRANTING A HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MID
LEVEL COOLING COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT APPEARS THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BASED ON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPC HAS  PLACED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAY 3.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NOTICEABLE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM MON AFTERNOON
TO TUE AFTERNOON AS BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE LACKING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TUE WHILE
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA FOR THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MID LEVELS DRY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED BUT DIFFER ON ITS
STRENGTH AND IMPACT. WILL NOT BE ADDING ANY PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFICULTY IN ACCURATELY DEPICTING SUCH
FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...PWATS BARELY EXCEED 1.25 INCHES DURING THE
PERIOD...SO DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE SCARCE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK A MENTIONABLE
POP IS WARRANTED. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR THE COAST...ALONG OR
JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT EVEN HERE COVERAGE ABOVE 20% IS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KFLO/KLBT SHOULD
QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13-14Z. SOME OF THIS IFR STRATUS COULD ADVECT TO
THE KILM TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF...BUT THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF AN IFR CIG. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF TEMPO
MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING..OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
18Z. LGT/VRBL TO LGT W WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONGEST AVERAGE WINDS OF 8-15 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TWO SFC BASED FEATURES...THE SEA
BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR
POSSIBLE CONVECTION. HOWEVER LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT AND PROGGED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIMITED TO
ISOLATED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE WILL NOT MENTION TS IN TAFS.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AS ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES. ALTHOUGH
WINDS DECREASE THEY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT SCT IFR STRATUS
AND MVFR VSBYS IN BR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MAINLY AT
THE INLAND TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...THE OLD STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE
AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE PIEDMONT TROF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IS PROGGED TO BECOME STRONGER THRU
TONIGHT. RIDGING FROM THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL EXTEND
WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
AND GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT THAT YIELDS AT LEAST 15 KT FOR SPEEDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION INTO A SW FLOW
DIRECTION TODAY THRU TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS INITIALLY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 2 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LOCALLY PRODUCED
WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AND COVERAGE AND LIKELY BECOME
THE MORE DOMINATE OF THE 2. SEVEN SECOND DOMINATE PERIODS WILL
OCCUR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEADLINES FOR ALL ZONES LATER SUN NIGHT
AND MON. NATURE OF THE HEADLINES IS AS OF YET UNDETERMINED. IT MAY
END UP THAT SCEC IS NEEDED SUN NIGHT AND THEN SCA MON AND PART OF
MON NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT SUN WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID
20 KT SUN NIGHT AND MON. COMBINATION OF PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS BUILDS SEAS FROM 3 TO 4 FT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TO 4 TO 6 FT ON MON. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT LATER MON NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY
TUE MORNING. OFFSHORE COMPONENT AND DECREASE IN SPEEDS LATE MON
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SEAS FALLING TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...LEAVING A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT TUE INTO WED.
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ON WED WITH 10 TO 15 KT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL TREND DOWN TUE AND TUE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT AS WIND FIELD BECOMES MORE DEFINED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 261043
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
643 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. ANOTHER UNUSUALLY STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...BEWARE THE NW FLOW!...A BATTLE CRY THATS
BEEN USED HERE WHEN FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NW AND VARIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SAYING VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. IN
FACT...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE KEEP POPS EVEN BELOW ISOLATED
CHANCE. WITH THAT SAID...ITS DIFFICULT TO BEGIN WITH TO INDICATE A
POP-LESS FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE SEA BREEZE...
PIEDMONT TROF...AND WHATS LEFT OF A STATIONARY FRONT...SHOULD ALL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO ENABLE CONVECTION INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS DO ILLUSTRATE MUCH NOISE IN THE
MID-LEVELS WITH REFERENCE TO THE MOVEMENT OF S/W TROFS OR VORTS
ACROSS THE FA THRU TONIGHT. THEY ALSO SHOW NVA AND SUBSIDENCE
PASSING OVERHEAD AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
SOUNDING DATA...IE. HOURLY NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS...AN IDENTIFIABLE
WEAK TO MODEST TEMP INVERSION IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ALOFT...MAINLY
BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB. THIS WOULD DEFINITELY PUT A DAMPER ON
CONVECTION INITIATION. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...WILL STILL
INDICATE POPS...ALBEIT ISOLATED...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS FOR TEMPS...MODEL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND 90 FOR
AFTN MAXES...INCLUDING THE BEACHES. GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE
TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT...WILL GO A DEGREE OR 3 HIGHER
THAN MODEL MOS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THIS MEANS WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE
READINGS TODAY...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES WHERE UPPER 80S TO
PREVAIL. WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS TODAY...BUT FOR
THE NEXT 2 DAYS THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS ON BOTH SUN AND MON RUNNING WELL INTO THE 90S. MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAPPING AROUND 800 MB...A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE 5H RIDGE. CAPPING ALONG WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION HARD TO COME BY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHORT LIVED SHOWER ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT
NOTHING WORTH CARRYING A POP ABOVE 10%. 850 TEMPS IN THE 20C TO 22C
RANGE AND LACK OF MUCH CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE. DESPITE LIMITED CLOUD COVER SUN
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE KEPT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH IMPRESSIVE 5H
TROUGH THE DRIVING FACTOR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON MON...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. MON IS ALSO SHAPING UP TO BE A HOT
DAY WITH 850 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20C RANGE. HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL NOT ONLY PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105F...LIKELY WARRANTING A HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MID
LEVEL COOLING COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT APPEARS THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BASED ON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPC HAS  PLACED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAY 3.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NOTICEABLE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM MON AFTERNOON
TO TUE AFTERNOON AS BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE LACKING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TUE WHILE
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA FOR THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MID LEVELS DRY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED BUT DIFFER ON ITS
STRENGTH AND IMPACT. WILL NOT BE ADDING ANY PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFICULTY IN ACCURATELY DEPICTING SUCH
FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...PWATS BARELY EXCEED 1.25 INCHES DURING THE
PERIOD...SO DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE SCARCE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK A MENTIONABLE
POP IS WARRANTED. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR THE COAST...ALONG OR
JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT EVEN HERE COVERAGE ABOVE 20% IS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...FEW LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OTHERWISE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RULE THE AM HOURS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECKS...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE INLAND TERMINALS. FOG WILL ALSO BECOME A HINDRANCE TO AVIATORS
WITH GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INLAND TERMS. BY 12Z AND AFTER A COUPLE HOURS OF INSOLATION...THE
FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE. FOR SATURDAY MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...2 SFC BASED FEATURES...SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT
TROF... WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...PROGGED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND IN STRENGTH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...THE OLD STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE
AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE PIEDMONT TROF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IS PROGGED TO BECOME STRONGER THRU
TONIGHT. RIDGING FROM THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL EXTEND
WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
AND GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT THAT YIELDS ATLEAST 15 KT FOR SPEEDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION INTO A SW FLOW
DIRECTION TODAY THRU TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS INITIALLY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 2 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LOCALLY PRODUCED
WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AND COVERAGE AND LIKELY BECOME
THE MORE DOMINATE OF THE 2. SEVEN SECOND DOMINATE PERIODS WILL
OCCUR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEADLINES FOR ALL ZONES LATER SUN NIGHT
AND MON. NATURE OF THE HEADLINES IS AS OF YET UNDETERMINED. IT MAY
END UP THAT SCEC IS NEEDED SUN NIGHT AND THEN SCA MON AND PART OF
MON NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT SUN WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID
20 KT SUN NIGHT AND MON. COMBINATION OF PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS BUILDS SEAS FROM 3 TO 4 FT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TO 4 TO 6 FT ON MON. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT LATER MON NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY
TUE MORNING. OFFSHORE COMPONENT AND DECREASE IN SPEEDS LATE MON
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SEAS FALLING TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...LEAVING A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT TUE INTO WED.
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ON WED WITH 10 TO 15 KT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL TREND DOWN TUE AND TUE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT AS WIND FIELD BECOMES MORE DEFINED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH






000
FXUS62 KILM 261043
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
643 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. ANOTHER UNUSUALLY STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...BEWARE THE NW FLOW!...A BATTLE CRY THATS
BEEN USED HERE WHEN FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NW AND VARIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SAYING VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. IN
FACT...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE KEEP POPS EVEN BELOW ISOLATED
CHANCE. WITH THAT SAID...ITS DIFFICULT TO BEGIN WITH TO INDICATE A
POP-LESS FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE SEA BREEZE...
PIEDMONT TROF...AND WHATS LEFT OF A STATIONARY FRONT...SHOULD ALL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO ENABLE CONVECTION INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS DO ILLUSTRATE MUCH NOISE IN THE
MID-LEVELS WITH REFERENCE TO THE MOVEMENT OF S/W TROFS OR VORTS
ACROSS THE FA THRU TONIGHT. THEY ALSO SHOW NVA AND SUBSIDENCE
PASSING OVERHEAD AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
SOUNDING DATA...IE. HOURLY NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS...AN IDENTIFIABLE
WEAK TO MODEST TEMP INVERSION IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ALOFT...MAINLY
BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB. THIS WOULD DEFINITELY PUT A DAMPER ON
CONVECTION INITIATION. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...WILL STILL
INDICATE POPS...ALBEIT ISOLATED...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS FOR TEMPS...MODEL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND 90 FOR
AFTN MAXES...INCLUDING THE BEACHES. GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE
TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT...WILL GO A DEGREE OR 3 HIGHER
THAN MODEL MOS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THIS MEANS WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE
READINGS TODAY...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES WHERE UPPER 80S TO
PREVAIL. WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS TODAY...BUT FOR
THE NEXT 2 DAYS THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS ON BOTH SUN AND MON RUNNING WELL INTO THE 90S. MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAPPING AROUND 800 MB...A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE 5H RIDGE. CAPPING ALONG WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION HARD TO COME BY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHORT LIVED SHOWER ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT
NOTHING WORTH CARRYING A POP ABOVE 10%. 850 TEMPS IN THE 20C TO 22C
RANGE AND LACK OF MUCH CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE. DESPITE LIMITED CLOUD COVER SUN
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE KEPT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH IMPRESSIVE 5H
TROUGH THE DRIVING FACTOR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON MON...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. MON IS ALSO SHAPING UP TO BE A HOT
DAY WITH 850 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20C RANGE. HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL NOT ONLY PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105F...LIKELY WARRANTING A HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MID
LEVEL COOLING COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT APPEARS THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BASED ON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPC HAS  PLACED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAY 3.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NOTICEABLE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM MON AFTERNOON
TO TUE AFTERNOON AS BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE LACKING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TUE WHILE
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA FOR THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MID LEVELS DRY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED BUT DIFFER ON ITS
STRENGTH AND IMPACT. WILL NOT BE ADDING ANY PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFICULTY IN ACCURATELY DEPICTING SUCH
FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...PWATS BARELY EXCEED 1.25 INCHES DURING THE
PERIOD...SO DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE SCARCE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK A MENTIONABLE
POP IS WARRANTED. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR THE COAST...ALONG OR
JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT EVEN HERE COVERAGE ABOVE 20% IS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...FEW LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OTHERWISE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RULE THE AM HOURS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECKS...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE INLAND TERMINALS. FOG WILL ALSO BECOME A HINDRANCE TO AVIATORS
WITH GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INLAND TERMS. BY 12Z AND AFTER A COUPLE HOURS OF INSOLATION...THE
FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE. FOR SATURDAY MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...2 SFC BASED FEATURES...SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT
TROF... WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...PROGGED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND IN STRENGTH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...THE OLD STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE
AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE PIEDMONT TROF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IS PROGGED TO BECOME STRONGER THRU
TONIGHT. RIDGING FROM THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL EXTEND
WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
AND GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT THAT YIELDS ATLEAST 15 KT FOR SPEEDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION INTO A SW FLOW
DIRECTION TODAY THRU TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS INITIALLY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 2 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LOCALLY PRODUCED
WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AND COVERAGE AND LIKELY BECOME
THE MORE DOMINATE OF THE 2. SEVEN SECOND DOMINATE PERIODS WILL
OCCUR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEADLINES FOR ALL ZONES LATER SUN NIGHT
AND MON. NATURE OF THE HEADLINES IS AS OF YET UNDETERMINED. IT MAY
END UP THAT SCEC IS NEEDED SUN NIGHT AND THEN SCA MON AND PART OF
MON NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT SUN WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID
20 KT SUN NIGHT AND MON. COMBINATION OF PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS BUILDS SEAS FROM 3 TO 4 FT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TO 4 TO 6 FT ON MON. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT LATER MON NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY
TUE MORNING. OFFSHORE COMPONENT AND DECREASE IN SPEEDS LATE MON
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SEAS FALLING TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...LEAVING A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT TUE INTO WED.
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ON WED WITH 10 TO 15 KT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL TREND DOWN TUE AND TUE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT AS WIND FIELD BECOMES MORE DEFINED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 260800
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. ANOTHER UNUSUALLY STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BEWARE THE NW FLOW!...A BATTLE CRY THATS
BEEN USED HERE WHEN FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NW AND VARIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SAYING VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. IN
FACT...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS POPS EVEN BELOW ISOLATED
CHANCE. WITH THAT SAID...ITS DIFFICULT TO BEGIN WITH TO INDICATE A
POP-LESS FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROF SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO ENABLE CONVECTION
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO ILLUSTRATE MUCH NOISE IN THE
MID-LEVELS WITH REFERENCE TO THE MOVEMENT OF S/W TROFS OR VORTS
ACROSS THE FA THRU TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THEY ALSO SHOW NVA AND
SUBSIDENCE THAT ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOOKING AT SOUNDING DATA PARTICULARLY HOURLY NAMBUFR
SOUNDINGS...AN IDENTIFIABLE WEAK TO MODEST TEMP INVERSION PROGGED TO
OCCUR ALOFT...MAINLY BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB. THIS WOULD PUT A DAMPER
ON CONVECTION INITIATION. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL INDICATE
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPS...MODEL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND 90 FOR
MAXES...INCLUDING THE BEACHES. GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY IN THE
WIND FIELD ALOFT...WILL GO A DEGREE OR 3 HIGHER THAN MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THIS MEANS WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE READINGS
TODAY...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES WHERE MID-UPPER 80S TO PREVAIL.
WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS TODAY...BUT FOR THE NEXT 2
DAYS THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS ON BOTH SUN AND MON RUNNING WELL INTO THE 90S. MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAPPING AROUND 800 MB...A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE 5H RIDGE. CAPPING ALONG WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION HARD TO COME BY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHORT LIVED SHOWER ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT
NOTHING WORTH CARRYING A POP ABOVE 10%. 850 TEMPS IN THE 20C TO 22C
RANGE AND LACK OF MUCH CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE. DESPITE LIMITED CLOUD COVER SUN
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE KEPT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH IMPRESSIVE 5H
TROUGH THE DRIVING FACTOR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON MON...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. MON IS ALSO SHAPING UP TO BE A HOT
DAY WITH 850 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20C RANGE. HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL NOT ONLY PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105F...LIKELY WARRANTING A HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MID
LEVEL COOLING COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT APPEARS THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BASED ON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPC HAS  PLACED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAY 3.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NOTICEABLE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM MON AFTERNOON
TO TUE AFTERNOON AS BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE LACKING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TUE WHILE
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA FOR THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MID LEVELS DRY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED BUT DIFFER ON ITS
STRENGTH AND IMPACT. WILL NOT BE ADDING ANY PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFICULTY IN ACCURATELY DEPICTING SUCH
FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...PWATS BARELY EXCEED 1.25 INCHES DURING THE
PERIOD...SO DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE SCARCE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK A MENTIONABLE
POP IS WARRANTED. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR THE COAST...ALONG OR
JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT EVEN HERE COVERAGE ABOVE 20% IS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...FEW LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OTHERWISE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RULE THE AM HOURS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECKS...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE INLAND TERMINALS. FOG WILL ALSO BECOME A HINDRANCE TO AVIATORS
WITH GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INLAND TERMS. BY 12Z AND AFTER A COUPLE HOURS OF INSOLATION...THE
FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE. FOR SATURDAY MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...2 SFC BASED FEATURES...SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...PROGGED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND IN STRENGTH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE OLD STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE AS IT
BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IS PROGGED TO BECOME STRONGER THRU TONIGHT.
RIDGING FROM THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL EXTEND WESTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENING SFC PG THAT
YIELDS ATLEAST 15 KT FOR SPEEDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN THAT WILL TRANSITION TO A SW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS INITIALLY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 2
FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AND COVERAGE AND LIKELY
BECOME THE MORE DOMINATE OF THE 2. DOMINATE PERIODS AROUND 7
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEADLINES FOR ALL ZONES LATER SUN NIGHT
AND MON. NATURE OF THE HEADLINES IS AS OF YET UNDETERMINED. IT MAY
END UP THAT SCEC IS NEEDED SUN NIGHT AND THEN SCA MON AND PART OF
MON NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT SUN WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID
20 KT SUN NIGHT AND MON. COMBINATION OF PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS BUILDS SEAS FROM 3 TO 4 FT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TO 4 TO 6 FT ON MON. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT LATER MON NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY
TUE MORNING. OFFSHORE COMPONENT AND DECREASE IN SPEEDS LATE MON
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SEAS FALLING TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...LEAVING A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT TUE INTO WED.
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ON WED WITH 10 TO 15 KT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL TREND DOWN TUE AND TUE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT AS WIND FIELD BECOMES MORE DEFINED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH







000
FXUS62 KILM 260800
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. ANOTHER UNUSUALLY STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BEWARE THE NW FLOW!...A BATTLE CRY THATS
BEEN USED HERE WHEN FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NW AND VARIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SAYING VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. IN
FACT...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS POPS EVEN BELOW ISOLATED
CHANCE. WITH THAT SAID...ITS DIFFICULT TO BEGIN WITH TO INDICATE A
POP-LESS FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROF SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO ENABLE CONVECTION
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO ILLUSTRATE MUCH NOISE IN THE
MID-LEVELS WITH REFERENCE TO THE MOVEMENT OF S/W TROFS OR VORTS
ACROSS THE FA THRU TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THEY ALSO SHOW NVA AND
SUBSIDENCE THAT ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOOKING AT SOUNDING DATA PARTICULARLY HOURLY NAMBUFR
SOUNDINGS...AN IDENTIFIABLE WEAK TO MODEST TEMP INVERSION PROGGED TO
OCCUR ALOFT...MAINLY BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB. THIS WOULD PUT A DAMPER
ON CONVECTION INITIATION. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL INDICATE
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPS...MODEL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND 90 FOR
MAXES...INCLUDING THE BEACHES. GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY IN THE
WIND FIELD ALOFT...WILL GO A DEGREE OR 3 HIGHER THAN MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THIS MEANS WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE READINGS
TODAY...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES WHERE MID-UPPER 80S TO PREVAIL.
WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS TODAY...BUT FOR THE NEXT 2
DAYS THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS ON BOTH SUN AND MON RUNNING WELL INTO THE 90S. MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAPPING AROUND 800 MB...A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE 5H RIDGE. CAPPING ALONG WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE
EVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION HARD TO COME BY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHORT LIVED SHOWER ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT
NOTHING WORTH CARRYING A POP ABOVE 10%. 850 TEMPS IN THE 20C TO 22C
RANGE AND LACK OF MUCH CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE. DESPITE LIMITED CLOUD COVER SUN
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE KEPT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH IMPRESSIVE 5H
TROUGH THE DRIVING FACTOR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON MON...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. MON IS ALSO SHAPING UP TO BE A HOT
DAY WITH 850 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20C RANGE. HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL NOT ONLY PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105F...LIKELY WARRANTING A HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MID
LEVEL COOLING COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT APPEARS THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BASED ON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPC HAS  PLACED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAY 3.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NOTICEABLE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM MON AFTERNOON
TO TUE AFTERNOON AS BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE LACKING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TUE WHILE
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE AREA FOR THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MID LEVELS DRY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED BUT DIFFER ON ITS
STRENGTH AND IMPACT. WILL NOT BE ADDING ANY PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFICULTY IN ACCURATELY DEPICTING SUCH
FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...PWATS BARELY EXCEED 1.25 INCHES DURING THE
PERIOD...SO DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE SCARCE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT THINK A MENTIONABLE
POP IS WARRANTED. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR THE COAST...ALONG OR
JUST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BUT EVEN HERE COVERAGE ABOVE 20% IS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...FEW LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OTHERWISE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RULE THE AM HOURS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECKS...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE INLAND TERMINALS. FOG WILL ALSO BECOME A HINDRANCE TO AVIATORS
WITH GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INLAND TERMS. BY 12Z AND AFTER A COUPLE HOURS OF INSOLATION...THE
FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE. FOR SATURDAY MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...2 SFC BASED FEATURES...SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...PROGGED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND IN STRENGTH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE OLD STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE AS IT
BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IS PROGGED TO BECOME STRONGER THRU TONIGHT.
RIDGING FROM THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL EXTEND WESTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENING SFC PG THAT
YIELDS ATLEAST 15 KT FOR SPEEDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN THAT WILL TRANSITION TO A SW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS INITIALLY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 2
FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AND COVERAGE AND LIKELY
BECOME THE MORE DOMINATE OF THE 2. DOMINATE PERIODS AROUND 7
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEADLINES FOR ALL ZONES LATER SUN NIGHT
AND MON. NATURE OF THE HEADLINES IS AS OF YET UNDETERMINED. IT MAY
END UP THAT SCEC IS NEEDED SUN NIGHT AND THEN SCA MON AND PART OF
MON NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT SUN WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID
20 KT SUN NIGHT AND MON. COMBINATION OF PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS BUILDS SEAS FROM 3 TO 4 FT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TO 4 TO 6 FT ON MON. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT LATER MON NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY
TUE MORNING. OFFSHORE COMPONENT AND DECREASE IN SPEEDS LATE MON
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SEAS FALLING TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TUE INTO WED...LEAVING A WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT TUE INTO WED.
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ON WED WITH 10 TO 15 KT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL TREND DOWN TUE AND TUE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT AS WIND FIELD BECOMES MORE DEFINED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH






000
FXUS62 KILM 260512
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
110 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DRIFTED INTO
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY...OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST AS CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WILL COVER SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THIS EVENING.

RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODELS STRUGGLED INITIALLY WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND ARE NOW STRUGGLING WITH
THE FRONT`S SLUGGISH RETURN NORTHWARD. THE 12Z NAM HAD VERY POOR
INITIALIZATION WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE 12Z GFS WAS INITIALIZED A
LITTLE BETTER BUT I AM ESSENTIALLY USING THE RUC...HRRR...AND 12Z
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NM MODELS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS TONIGHT. AS
SYNOPTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
SHOULD INDUCE THE FRONT TO RETURN NORTHWARD...ALBEIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN MOST SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.

WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS...CALM WINDS...AND SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES...IT IS A GOOD
SETUP FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AROUND
DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...MAIN WEEKEND WEATHER HEADLINE IS EXPANDING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HEAT INDICES/APPARENT TEMPERATURES FACTORING
IN ELEVATED DEWPOINT VALUES...YIELDS 97-102 DEGREE INDICES FOR
SATURDAY...AND INTO THE BROILER SUNDAY AS MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON CREST TO 104-107 DEGREES. IF CONSISTENCY HOLDS
IN THE MAX TEMP FORECAST...THEN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT PROSPECTS
OF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDED ON SUNDAY.

PCPN-WISE...BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AS A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND SE NC. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL PLACE LIMITATIONS OF PCPN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE SATURDAY...BUT
A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. SUNDAY LOOKS DRYISH WITH WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COLUMN SQUELCHING RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE OF INTENSE HEAT AT
THE SURFACE SUNDAY HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TSTM CANNOT BE RULED
ENTIRELY.

DUE TO THE GRADUAL BUILD UP OF HEAT...VERY MILD MINIMUMS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DAYBREAK ARE ANTICIPATED...ESSENTIALLY MIDDLE 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S AND MILDEST NEAR THE SEA...PARTICULARLY AS WE SEE
STILL SW WINDS HOLDING UP IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL DRIVE ACTIVE WEATHER THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE MAJORITY
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MONDAY SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
LOCALLY...AS RETURN FLOW STRENGTH INCREASES...AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
ABOVE 20C. COMBINE THIS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A VERY WARM START
TO THE DAY (WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM SUNDAY)...AND MONDAY WILL
FEATURE WIDESPREAD MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
IN MANY SPOTS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL BRING
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE THE LAST SUMMER-LIKE DAY FOR QUITE SOME TIME THOUGH...AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY SHARP TROUGH (UP TO -4 SD) DIVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
BENEATH THIS TROUGH A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY EVE AND NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIVING INTO A VERY WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION ON MONDAY...AND SPC IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTING THE REGION IN THE D4 OUTLOOK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO FOCUS
ON DETAILS OF COURSE...BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS UNQUESTIONABLY A SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS CONVECTION. WILL BUMP TO
LIKELY POP MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

TO USE THE WORD SIGNIFICANT TO DESCRIBE THE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT...AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP FROM AROUND 21C (+2 SD) TO 13C (-2 SD) IN JUST 48 HOURS! WHILE
THIS OCCURS...PWATS DROP BELOW 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL...AND
THUS THE TUE/WED/THU TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE DRY LOCALLY...ALBEIT WITH
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. ALTHOUGH STRONG CAA EVENTS IN
JULY ARE...NOT SURPRISINGLY...RARE...EXPECT GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING
TEMP FORECASTS MID WEEK AND WILL UNDERCUT NUMBERS...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC BEGINS TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST DRIVING A RETROGRADING
PATTERN INTO FRIDAY...DRIVING WARMING TEMPS BUT INCREASING CHANCES
FOR POP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...FEW LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OTHERWISE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RULE THE AM HOURS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECKS...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE INLAND TERMINALS. FOG WILL ALSO BECOME A HINDRANCE TO AVIATORS
WITH GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INLAND TERMS. BY 12Z AND AFTER A COUPLE HOURS OF INSOLATION...THE
FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE. FOR SATURDAY MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...2 SFC BASED FEATURES...SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...PROGGED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND IN STRENGTH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE WATERS...BUT ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
UNLIKELY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CAPE FEAR LATER THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED
EXPECTED FROM PRESENT 10 KT RANGE.

SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN A 9-SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD WAVES PRODUCED BY LOCAL WINDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...THE MARINE WEEKEND HEADLINE...INCREASING SW
WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION MARINE
CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT...FOR 15-20 KT
SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FEET. THEREFOR WHILE SATURDAY WILL BE A
MANAGEABLE DAY FOR BOATING...SUNDAY WILL BECOME BUMPY AND A BIT
MORE HAZARDOUS AS WIND-WAVES CONTINUE TO GROW IN PERSISTENT AND
MODERATELY STRONG SW WINDS. ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH WINDS UP ABOVE 20 KTS FROM THE SW ON
MONDAY...DRIVING SEAS TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY TUESDAY
MORNING...AND SPEEDS EASING THROUGH TUESDAY TO 5-10 KTS. WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THEREAFTER...CAUSING
WINDS TO BECOME NE AROUND 10 KTS. AFTER THE SCA CONDITIONS SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH









000
FXUS62 KILM 260512
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
110 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DRIFTED INTO
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY...OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST AS CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WILL COVER SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THIS EVENING.

RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODELS STRUGGLED INITIALLY WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND ARE NOW STRUGGLING WITH
THE FRONT`S SLUGGISH RETURN NORTHWARD. THE 12Z NAM HAD VERY POOR
INITIALIZATION WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE 12Z GFS WAS INITIALIZED A
LITTLE BETTER BUT I AM ESSENTIALLY USING THE RUC...HRRR...AND 12Z
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NM MODELS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS TONIGHT. AS
SYNOPTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
SHOULD INDUCE THE FRONT TO RETURN NORTHWARD...ALBEIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN MOST SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.

WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS...CALM WINDS...AND SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES...IT IS A GOOD
SETUP FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AROUND
DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...MAIN WEEKEND WEATHER HEADLINE IS EXPANDING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HEAT INDICES/APPARENT TEMPERATURES FACTORING
IN ELEVATED DEWPOINT VALUES...YIELDS 97-102 DEGREE INDICES FOR
SATURDAY...AND INTO THE BROILER SUNDAY AS MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON CREST TO 104-107 DEGREES. IF CONSISTENCY HOLDS
IN THE MAX TEMP FORECAST...THEN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT PROSPECTS
OF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDED ON SUNDAY.

PCPN-WISE...BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AS A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND SE NC. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL PLACE LIMITATIONS OF PCPN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE SATURDAY...BUT
A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. SUNDAY LOOKS DRYISH WITH WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COLUMN SQUELCHING RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE OF INTENSE HEAT AT
THE SURFACE SUNDAY HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TSTM CANNOT BE RULED
ENTIRELY.

DUE TO THE GRADUAL BUILD UP OF HEAT...VERY MILD MINIMUMS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DAYBREAK ARE ANTICIPATED...ESSENTIALLY MIDDLE 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S AND MILDEST NEAR THE SEA...PARTICULARLY AS WE SEE
STILL SW WINDS HOLDING UP IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL DRIVE ACTIVE WEATHER THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE MAJORITY
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MONDAY SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
LOCALLY...AS RETURN FLOW STRENGTH INCREASES...AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
ABOVE 20C. COMBINE THIS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A VERY WARM START
TO THE DAY (WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM SUNDAY)...AND MONDAY WILL
FEATURE WIDESPREAD MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
IN MANY SPOTS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL BRING
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE THE LAST SUMMER-LIKE DAY FOR QUITE SOME TIME THOUGH...AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY SHARP TROUGH (UP TO -4 SD) DIVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
BENEATH THIS TROUGH A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY EVE AND NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIVING INTO A VERY WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION ON MONDAY...AND SPC IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTING THE REGION IN THE D4 OUTLOOK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO FOCUS
ON DETAILS OF COURSE...BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS UNQUESTIONABLY A SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS CONVECTION. WILL BUMP TO
LIKELY POP MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

TO USE THE WORD SIGNIFICANT TO DESCRIBE THE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT...AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP FROM AROUND 21C (+2 SD) TO 13C (-2 SD) IN JUST 48 HOURS! WHILE
THIS OCCURS...PWATS DROP BELOW 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL...AND
THUS THE TUE/WED/THU TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE DRY LOCALLY...ALBEIT WITH
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. ALTHOUGH STRONG CAA EVENTS IN
JULY ARE...NOT SURPRISINGLY...RARE...EXPECT GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING
TEMP FORECASTS MID WEEK AND WILL UNDERCUT NUMBERS...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC BEGINS TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST DRIVING A RETROGRADING
PATTERN INTO FRIDAY...DRIVING WARMING TEMPS BUT INCREASING CHANCES
FOR POP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...FEW LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OTHERWISE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RULE THE AM HOURS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECKS...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE INLAND TERMINALS. FOG WILL ALSO BECOME A HINDRANCE TO AVIATORS
WITH GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INLAND TERMS. BY 12Z AND AFTER A COUPLE HOURS OF INSOLATION...THE
FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE. FOR SATURDAY MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...2 SFC BASED FEATURES...SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...PROGGED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND IN STRENGTH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE WATERS...BUT ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
UNLIKELY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CAPE FEAR LATER THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED
EXPECTED FROM PRESENT 10 KT RANGE.

SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN A 9-SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD WAVES PRODUCED BY LOCAL WINDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...THE MARINE WEEKEND HEADLINE...INCREASING SW
WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION MARINE
CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT...FOR 15-20 KT
SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FEET. THEREFOR WHILE SATURDAY WILL BE A
MANAGEABLE DAY FOR BOATING...SUNDAY WILL BECOME BUMPY AND A BIT
MORE HAZARDOUS AS WIND-WAVES CONTINUE TO GROW IN PERSISTENT AND
MODERATELY STRONG SW WINDS. ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH WINDS UP ABOVE 20 KTS FROM THE SW ON
MONDAY...DRIVING SEAS TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY TUESDAY
MORNING...AND SPEEDS EASING THROUGH TUESDAY TO 5-10 KTS. WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THEREAFTER...CAUSING
WINDS TO BECOME NE AROUND 10 KTS. AFTER THE SCA CONDITIONS SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH










000
FXUS62 KILM 260217
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1017 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DRIFTED INTO
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY...OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST AS CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WILL COVER SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THIS EVENING.

RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODELS STRUGGLED INITIALLY WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND ARE NOW STRUGGLING WITH
THE FRONT`S SLUGGISH RETURN NORTHWARD. THE 12Z NAM HAD VERY POOR
INITIALIZATION WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE 12Z GFS WAS INITIALIZED A
LITTLE BETTER BUT I AM ESSENTIALLY USING THE RUC...HRRR...AND 12Z
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NM MODELS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS TONIGHT. AS
SYNOPTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
SHOULD INDUCE THE FRONT TO RETURN NORTHWARD...ALBEIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN MOST SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.

WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS...CALM WINDS...AND SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES...IT IS A GOOD
SETUP FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AROUND
DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...MAIN WEEKEND WEATHER HEADLINE IS EXPANDING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HEAT INDICES/APPARENT TEMPERATURES FACTORING
IN ELEVATED DEWPOINT VALUES...YIELDS 97-102 DEGREE INDICES FOR
SATURDAY...AND INTO THE BROILER SUNDAY AS MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON CREST TO 104-107 DEGREES. IF CONSISTENCY HOLDS
IN THE MAX TEMP FORECAST...THEN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT PROSPECTS
OF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDED ON SUNDAY.

PCPN-WISE...BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AS A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND SE NC. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL PLACE LIMITATIONS OF PCPN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE SATURDAY...BUT
A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. SUNDAY LOOKS DRYISH WITH WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COLUMN SQUELCHING RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE OF INTENSE HEAT AT
THE SURFACE SUNDAY HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TSTM CANNOT BE RULED
ENTIRELY.

DUE TO THE GRADUAL BUILD UP OF HEAT...VERY MILD MINIMUMS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DAYBREAK ARE ANTICIPATED...ESSENTIALLY MIDDLE 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S AND MILDEST NEAR THE SEA...PARTICULARLY AS WE SEE
STILL SW WINDS HOLDING UP IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL DRIVE ACTIVE WEATHER THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE MAJORITY
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MONDAY SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
LOCALLY...AS RETURN FLOW STRENGTH INCREASES...AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
ABOVE 20C. COMBINE THIS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A VERY WARM START
TO THE DAY (WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM SUNDAY)...AND MONDAY WILL
FEATURE WIDESPREAD MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
IN MANY SPOTS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL BRING
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE THE LAST SUMMER-LIKE DAY FOR QUITE SOME TIME THOUGH...AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY SHARP TROUGH (UP TO -4 SD) DIVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
BENEATH THIS TROUGH A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY EVE AND NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIVING INTO A VERY WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION ON MONDAY...AND SPC IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTING THE REGION IN THE D4 OUTLOOK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO FOCUS
ON DETAILS OF COURSE...BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS UNQUESTIONABLY A SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS CONVECTION. WILL BUMP TO
LIKELY POP MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

TO USE THE WORD SIGNIFICANT TO DESCRIBE THE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT...AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP FROM AROUND 21C (+2 SD) TO 13C (-2 SD) IN JUST 48 HOURS! WHILE
THIS OCCURS...PWATS DROP BELOW 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL...AND
THUS THE TUE/WED/THU TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE DRY LOCALLY...ALBEIT WITH
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. ALTHOUGH STRONG CAA EVENTS IN
JULY ARE...NOT SURPRISINGLY...RARE...EXPECT GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING
TEMP FORECASTS MID WEEK AND WILL UNDERCUT NUMBERS...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC BEGINS TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST DRIVING A RETROGRADING
PATTERN INTO FRIDAY...DRIVING WARMING TEMPS BUT INCREASING CHANCES
FOR POP.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STILL SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS...BUT SHOULD BE
PREDOMINATELY VFR THIS EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP SOME LIGHT FOG STARTING AROUND 08Z. SATURDAY...A
WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION. SOME CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FIRST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION INLAND WHERE THE BEST CAPE WILL DEVELOP. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE WATERS...BUT ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
UNLIKELY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CAPE FEAR LATER THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED
EXPECTED FROM PRESENT 10 KT RANGE.

SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN A 9-SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD WAVES PRODUCED BY LOCAL WINDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...THE MARINE WEEKEND HEADLINE...INCREASING SW
WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION MARINE
CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT...FOR 15-20 KT
SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FEET. THEREFOR WHILE SATURDAY WILL BE A
MANAGEABLE DAY FOR BOATING...SUNDAY WILL BECOME BUMPY AND A BIT
MORE HAZARDOUS AS WIND-WAVES CONTINUE TO GROW IN PERSISTENT AND
MODERATELY STRONG SW WINDS. ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH WINDS UP ABOVE 20 KTS FROM THE SW ON
MONDAY...DRIVING SEAS TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY TUESDAY
MORNING...AND SPEEDS EASING THROUGH TUESDAY TO 5-10 KTS. WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THEREAFTER...CAUSING
WINDS TO BECOME NE AROUND 10 KTS. AFTER THE SCA CONDITIONS SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/TRA/JDW






000
FXUS62 KILM 260217
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1017 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DRIFTED INTO
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY...OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST AS CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WILL COVER SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THIS EVENING.

RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODELS STRUGGLED INITIALLY WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND ARE NOW STRUGGLING WITH
THE FRONT`S SLUGGISH RETURN NORTHWARD. THE 12Z NAM HAD VERY POOR
INITIALIZATION WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE 12Z GFS WAS INITIALIZED A
LITTLE BETTER BUT I AM ESSENTIALLY USING THE RUC...HRRR...AND 12Z
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NM MODELS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS TONIGHT. AS
SYNOPTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
SHOULD INDUCE THE FRONT TO RETURN NORTHWARD...ALBEIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN MOST SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.

WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS...CALM WINDS...AND SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES...IT IS A GOOD
SETUP FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AROUND
DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...MAIN WEEKEND WEATHER HEADLINE IS EXPANDING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HEAT INDICES/APPARENT TEMPERATURES FACTORING
IN ELEVATED DEWPOINT VALUES...YIELDS 97-102 DEGREE INDICES FOR
SATURDAY...AND INTO THE BROILER SUNDAY AS MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON CREST TO 104-107 DEGREES. IF CONSISTENCY HOLDS
IN THE MAX TEMP FORECAST...THEN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT PROSPECTS
OF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDED ON SUNDAY.

PCPN-WISE...BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AS A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND SE NC. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL PLACE LIMITATIONS OF PCPN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE SATURDAY...BUT
A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. SUNDAY LOOKS DRYISH WITH WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COLUMN SQUELCHING RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE OF INTENSE HEAT AT
THE SURFACE SUNDAY HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TSTM CANNOT BE RULED
ENTIRELY.

DUE TO THE GRADUAL BUILD UP OF HEAT...VERY MILD MINIMUMS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DAYBREAK ARE ANTICIPATED...ESSENTIALLY MIDDLE 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S AND MILDEST NEAR THE SEA...PARTICULARLY AS WE SEE
STILL SW WINDS HOLDING UP IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL DRIVE ACTIVE WEATHER THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE MAJORITY
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MONDAY SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
LOCALLY...AS RETURN FLOW STRENGTH INCREASES...AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
ABOVE 20C. COMBINE THIS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A VERY WARM START
TO THE DAY (WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM SUNDAY)...AND MONDAY WILL
FEATURE WIDESPREAD MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
IN MANY SPOTS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL BRING
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE THE LAST SUMMER-LIKE DAY FOR QUITE SOME TIME THOUGH...AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY SHARP TROUGH (UP TO -4 SD) DIVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
BENEATH THIS TROUGH A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY EVE AND NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIVING INTO A VERY WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION ON MONDAY...AND SPC IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTING THE REGION IN THE D4 OUTLOOK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO FOCUS
ON DETAILS OF COURSE...BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS UNQUESTIONABLY A SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS CONVECTION. WILL BUMP TO
LIKELY POP MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

TO USE THE WORD SIGNIFICANT TO DESCRIBE THE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT...AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP FROM AROUND 21C (+2 SD) TO 13C (-2 SD) IN JUST 48 HOURS! WHILE
THIS OCCURS...PWATS DROP BELOW 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL...AND
THUS THE TUE/WED/THU TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE DRY LOCALLY...ALBEIT WITH
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. ALTHOUGH STRONG CAA EVENTS IN
JULY ARE...NOT SURPRISINGLY...RARE...EXPECT GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING
TEMP FORECASTS MID WEEK AND WILL UNDERCUT NUMBERS...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC BEGINS TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST DRIVING A RETROGRADING
PATTERN INTO FRIDAY...DRIVING WARMING TEMPS BUT INCREASING CHANCES
FOR POP.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STILL SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS...BUT SHOULD BE
PREDOMINATELY VFR THIS EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP SOME LIGHT FOG STARTING AROUND 08Z. SATURDAY...A
WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION. SOME CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FIRST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION INLAND WHERE THE BEST CAPE WILL DEVELOP. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE WATERS...BUT ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
UNLIKELY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CAPE FEAR LATER THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED
EXPECTED FROM PRESENT 10 KT RANGE.

SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN A 9-SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD WAVES PRODUCED BY LOCAL WINDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...THE MARINE WEEKEND HEADLINE...INCREASING SW
WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION MARINE
CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT...FOR 15-20 KT
SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FEET. THEREFOR WHILE SATURDAY WILL BE A
MANAGEABLE DAY FOR BOATING...SUNDAY WILL BECOME BUMPY AND A BIT
MORE HAZARDOUS AS WIND-WAVES CONTINUE TO GROW IN PERSISTENT AND
MODERATELY STRONG SW WINDS. ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH WINDS UP ABOVE 20 KTS FROM THE SW ON
MONDAY...DRIVING SEAS TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY TUESDAY
MORNING...AND SPEEDS EASING THROUGH TUESDAY TO 5-10 KTS. WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THEREAFTER...CAUSING
WINDS TO BECOME NE AROUND 10 KTS. AFTER THE SCA CONDITIONS SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/TRA/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 252337
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
737 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED FOR THE
EVENING FOR THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW JUST A FEW
REMNANT SHOWERS THAT ARE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACTIVITY TO OUR SW IS ALSO WEAKENING AND IS ALMOST STATIONARY...SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INCURSIONS. HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

MODELS STRUGGLED INITIALLY WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND ARE NOW STRUGGLING WITH
THE FRONT`S SLUGGISH RETURN NORTHWARD. THE 12Z NAM HAD VERY POOR
INITIALIZATION WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE 12Z GFS WAS INITIALIZED A
LITTLE BETTER BUT I AM ESSENTIALLY USING THE RUC...HRRR...AND 12Z
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NM MODELS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS TONIGHT. AS
SYNOPTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
SHOULD INDUCE THE FRONT TO RETURN NORTHWARD...ALBEIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN MOST SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.

WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS...CALM WINDS...AND SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES...IT IS A GOOD
SETUP FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AROUND
DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...MAIN WEEKEND WEATHER HEADLINE IS EXPANDING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HEAT INDICES/APPARENT TEMPERATURES FACTORING
IN ELEVATED DEWPOINT VALUES...YIELDS 97-102 DEGREE INDICES FOR
SATURDAY...AND INTO THE BROILER SUNDAY AS MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON CREST TO 104-107 DEGREES. IF CONSISTENCY HOLDS
IN THE MAX TEMP FORECAST...THEN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT PROSPECTS
OF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDED ON SUNDAY.

PCPN-WISE...BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AS A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND SE NC. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL PLACE LIMITATIONS OF PCPN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE SATURDAY...BUT
A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. SUNDAY LOOKS DRYISH WITH WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COLUMN SQUELCHING RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE OF INTENSE HEAT AT
THE SURFACE SUNDAY HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TSTM CANNOT BE RULED
ENTIRELY.

DUE TO THE GRADUAL BUILD UP OF HEAT...VERY MILD MINIMUMS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DAYBREAK ARE ANTICIPATED...ESSENTIALLY MIDDLE 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S AND MILDEST NEAR THE SEA...PARTICULARLY AS WE SEE
STILL SW WINDS HOLDING UP IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL DRIVE ACTIVE WEATHER THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE MAJORITY
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MONDAY SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
LOCALLY...AS RETURN FLOW STRENGTH INCREASES...AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
ABOVE 20C. COMBINE THIS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A VERY WARM START
TO THE DAY (WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM SUNDAY)...AND MONDAY WILL
FEATURE WIDESPREAD MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
IN MANY SPOTS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL BRING
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE THE LAST SUMMER-LIKE DAY FOR QUITE SOME TIME THOUGH...AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY SHARP TROUGH (UP TO -4 SD) DIVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
BENEATH THIS TROUGH A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY EVE AND NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIVING INTO A VERY WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION ON MONDAY...AND SPC IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTING THE REGION IN THE D4 OUTLOOK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO FOCUS
ON DETAILS OF COURSE...BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS UNQUESTIONABLY A SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS CONVECTION. WILL BUMP TO
LIKELY POP MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

TO USE THE WORD SIGNIFICANT TO DESCRIBE THE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT...AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP FROM AROUND 21C (+2 SD) TO 13C (-2 SD) IN JUST 48 HOURS! WHILE
THIS OCCURS...PWATS DROP BELOW 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL...AND
THUS THE TUE/WED/THU TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE DRY LOCALLY...ALBEIT WITH
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. ALTHOUGH STRONG CAA EVENTS IN
JULY ARE...NOT SURPRISINGLY...RARE...EXPECT GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING
TEMP FORECASTS MID WEEK AND WILL UNDERCUT NUMBERS...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC BEGINS TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST DRIVING A RETROGRADING
PATTERN INTO FRIDAY...DRIVING WARMING TEMPS BUT INCREASING CHANCES
FOR POP.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STILL SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS...BUT SHOULD BE
PREDOMINATELY VFR THIS EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP SOME LIGHT FOG STARTING AROUND 08Z. SATURDAY...A
WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION. SOME CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FIRST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION INLAND WHERE THE BEST CAPE WILL DEVELOP. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE WATERS...BUT ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING CAPE FEAR LATER THIS EVENING
AND EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED EXPECTED FROM PRESENT 10 KT RANGE.

SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN A 9-SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD WAVES PRODUCED BY LOCAL WINDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...THE MARINE WEEKEND HEADLINE...INCREASING SW
WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION MARINE
CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT...FOR 15-20 KT
SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FEET. THEREFOR WHILE SATURDAY WILL BE A
MANAGEABLE DAY FOR BOATING...SUNDAY WILL BECOME BUMPY AND A BIT
MORE HAZARDOUS AS WIND-WAVES CONTINUE TO GROW IN PERSISTENT AND
MODERATELY STRONG SW WINDS. ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH WINDS UP ABOVE 20 KTS FROM THE SW ON
MONDAY...DRIVING SEAS TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY TUESDAY
MORNING...AND SPEEDS EASING THROUGH TUESDAY TO 5-10 KTS. WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THEREAFTER...CAUSING
WINDS TO BECOME NE AROUND 10 KTS. AFTER THE SCA CONDITIONS SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/TRA/JDW






000
FXUS62 KILM 252337
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
737 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED FOR THE
EVENING FOR THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW JUST A FEW
REMNANT SHOWERS THAT ARE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACTIVITY TO OUR SW IS ALSO WEAKENING AND IS ALMOST STATIONARY...SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INCURSIONS. HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

MODELS STRUGGLED INITIALLY WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND ARE NOW STRUGGLING WITH
THE FRONT`S SLUGGISH RETURN NORTHWARD. THE 12Z NAM HAD VERY POOR
INITIALIZATION WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE 12Z GFS WAS INITIALIZED A
LITTLE BETTER BUT I AM ESSENTIALLY USING THE RUC...HRRR...AND 12Z
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NM MODELS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS TONIGHT. AS
SYNOPTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
SHOULD INDUCE THE FRONT TO RETURN NORTHWARD...ALBEIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN MOST SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.

WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS...CALM WINDS...AND SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES...IT IS A GOOD
SETUP FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AROUND
DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...MAIN WEEKEND WEATHER HEADLINE IS EXPANDING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HEAT INDICES/APPARENT TEMPERATURES FACTORING
IN ELEVATED DEWPOINT VALUES...YIELDS 97-102 DEGREE INDICES FOR
SATURDAY...AND INTO THE BROILER SUNDAY AS MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON CREST TO 104-107 DEGREES. IF CONSISTENCY HOLDS
IN THE MAX TEMP FORECAST...THEN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT PROSPECTS
OF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDED ON SUNDAY.

PCPN-WISE...BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AS A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND SE NC. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL PLACE LIMITATIONS OF PCPN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE SATURDAY...BUT
A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. SUNDAY LOOKS DRYISH WITH WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COLUMN SQUELCHING RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE OF INTENSE HEAT AT
THE SURFACE SUNDAY HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TSTM CANNOT BE RULED
ENTIRELY.

DUE TO THE GRADUAL BUILD UP OF HEAT...VERY MILD MINIMUMS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DAYBREAK ARE ANTICIPATED...ESSENTIALLY MIDDLE 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S AND MILDEST NEAR THE SEA...PARTICULARLY AS WE SEE
STILL SW WINDS HOLDING UP IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL DRIVE ACTIVE WEATHER THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE MAJORITY
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MONDAY SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
LOCALLY...AS RETURN FLOW STRENGTH INCREASES...AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
ABOVE 20C. COMBINE THIS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A VERY WARM START
TO THE DAY (WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM SUNDAY)...AND MONDAY WILL
FEATURE WIDESPREAD MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
IN MANY SPOTS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL BRING
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE THE LAST SUMMER-LIKE DAY FOR QUITE SOME TIME THOUGH...AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY SHARP TROUGH (UP TO -4 SD) DIVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
BENEATH THIS TROUGH A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY EVE AND NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIVING INTO A VERY WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION ON MONDAY...AND SPC IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTING THE REGION IN THE D4 OUTLOOK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO FOCUS
ON DETAILS OF COURSE...BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS UNQUESTIONABLY A SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS CONVECTION. WILL BUMP TO
LIKELY POP MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

TO USE THE WORD SIGNIFICANT TO DESCRIBE THE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT...AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP FROM AROUND 21C (+2 SD) TO 13C (-2 SD) IN JUST 48 HOURS! WHILE
THIS OCCURS...PWATS DROP BELOW 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL...AND
THUS THE TUE/WED/THU TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE DRY LOCALLY...ALBEIT WITH
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. ALTHOUGH STRONG CAA EVENTS IN
JULY ARE...NOT SURPRISINGLY...RARE...EXPECT GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING
TEMP FORECASTS MID WEEK AND WILL UNDERCUT NUMBERS...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC BEGINS TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST DRIVING A RETROGRADING
PATTERN INTO FRIDAY...DRIVING WARMING TEMPS BUT INCREASING CHANCES
FOR POP.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STILL SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS...BUT SHOULD BE
PREDOMINATELY VFR THIS EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP SOME LIGHT FOG STARTING AROUND 08Z. SATURDAY...A
WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION. SOME CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FIRST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION INLAND WHERE THE BEST CAPE WILL DEVELOP. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE WATERS...BUT ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING CAPE FEAR LATER THIS EVENING
AND EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED EXPECTED FROM PRESENT 10 KT RANGE.

SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN A 9-SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD WAVES PRODUCED BY LOCAL WINDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...THE MARINE WEEKEND HEADLINE...INCREASING SW
WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION MARINE
CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT...FOR 15-20 KT
SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FEET. THEREFOR WHILE SATURDAY WILL BE A
MANAGEABLE DAY FOR BOATING...SUNDAY WILL BECOME BUMPY AND A BIT
MORE HAZARDOUS AS WIND-WAVES CONTINUE TO GROW IN PERSISTENT AND
MODERATELY STRONG SW WINDS. ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH WINDS UP ABOVE 20 KTS FROM THE SW ON
MONDAY...DRIVING SEAS TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY TUESDAY
MORNING...AND SPEEDS EASING THROUGH TUESDAY TO 5-10 KTS. WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THEREAFTER...CAUSING
WINDS TO BECOME NE AROUND 10 KTS. AFTER THE SCA CONDITIONS SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/TRA/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 252245
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
647 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND MONDAY. ANOTHER UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...A STALLED FRONT IN THE GEORGETOWN VICINITY HAS
IGNITED A TREMENDOUS CONVECTIVE BLOWUP THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG...SLOW STORM MOVEMENT PARALLEL
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.9
INCHES ARE ALL VERY HELPFUL FOR PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXTENDS WESTWARD TO
JUST SOUTH OF COLUMBIA SC AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 5-7 PM
BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES OVERTURNED AND STABILIZED.
INTERESTINGLY...A COUPLE REPORTS OF HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED IN THE
PAST HALF HOUR...UNUSUAL TO SAY THE LEAST IN A HUMID AIRMASS
WITH FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND 15.5 KFT.

TO THE NORTH IT HAS BEEN AN UNUSUALLY COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECENTLY REACHING THE 80S IN WILMINGTON...
WHITEVILLE...AND FLORENCE. FOG AND LOW STATUS THAT FOLLOWED THE
FRONT SOUTH THIS MORNING HAS SINCE LIFTED INTO A LAYER OF
STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FT.

MODELS STRUGGLED INITIALLY WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THIS FRONT EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND ARE NOW STRUGGLING WITH THE
FRONT`S SLUGGISH RETURN NORTHWARD. THE 12Z NAM HAD VERY POOR
INITIALIZATION WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE 12Z GFS WAS INITIALIZED A
LITTLE BETTER BUT I AM ESSENTIALLY USING THE RUC...HRRR...AND 12Z
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NM MODELS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS TONIGHT. AS
SYNOPTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
SHOULD INDUCE THE FRONT TO RETURN NORTHWARD...ALBEIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN MOST SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.

WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS...CALM WINDS...AND SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES...IT IS A GOOD
SETUP FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AROUND
DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...MAIN WEEKEND WEATHER HEADLINE IS EXPANDING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HEAT INDICES/APPARENT TEMPERATURES FACTORING
IN ELEVATED DEWPOINT VALUES...YIELDS 97-102 DEGREE INDICES FOR
SATURDAY...AND INTO THE BROILER SUNDAY AS MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON CREST TO 104-107 DEGREES. IF CONSISTENCY HOLDS
IN THE MAX TEMP FORECAST...THEN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT PROSPECTS
OF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDED ON SUNDAY.

PCPN-WISE...BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AS A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND SE NC. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL PLACE LIMITATIONS OF PCPN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE SATURDAY...BUT
A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. SUNDAY LOOKS DRYISH WITH WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COLUMN SQUELCHING RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE OF INTENSE HEAT AT
THE SURFACE SUNDAY HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TSTM CANNOT BE RULED
ENTIRELY.

DUE TO THE GRADUAL BUILD UP OF HEAT...VERY MILD MINIMUMS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DAYBREAK ARE ANTICIPATED...ESSENTIALLY MIDDLE 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S AND MILDEST NEAR THE SEA...PARTICULARLY AS WE SEE
STILL SW WINDS HOLDING UP IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL DRIVE ACTIVE WEATHER THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE MAJORITY
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MONDAY SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
LOCALLY...AS RETURN FLOW STRENGTH INCREASES...AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
ABOVE 20C. COMBINE THIS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A VERY WARM START
TO THE DAY (WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM SUNDAY)...AND MONDAY WILL
FEATURE WIDESPREAD MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
IN MANY SPOTS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL BRING
APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE THE LAST SUMMER-LIKE DAY FOR QUITE SOME TIME THOUGH...AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY SHARP TROUGH (UP TO -4 SD) DIVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
BENEATH THIS TROUGH A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY EVE AND NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIVING INTO A VERY WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION ON MONDAY...AND SPC IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTING THE REGION IN THE D4 OUTLOOK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO FOCUS
ON DETAILS OF COURSE...BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS UNQUESTIONABLY A SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS CONVECTION. WILL BUMP TO
LIKELY POP MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

TO USE THE WORD SIGNIFICANT TO DESCRIBE THE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT...AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP FROM AROUND 21C (+2 SD) TO 13C (-2 SD) IN JUST 48 HOURS! WHILE
THIS OCCURS...PWATS DROP BELOW 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL...AND
THUS THE TUE/WED/THU TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE DRY LOCALLY...ALBEIT WITH
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. ALTHOUGH STRONG CAA EVENTS IN
JULY ARE...NOT SURPRISINGLY...RARE...EXPECT GUIDANCE IS OVERDOING
TEMP FORECASTS MID WEEK AND WILL UNDERCUT NUMBERS...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC BEGINS TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST DRIVING A RETROGRADING
PATTERN INTO FRIDAY...DRIVING WARMING TEMPS BUT INCREASING CHANCES
FOR POP.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STILL SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS...BUT SHOULD BE
PREDOMINATELY VFR THIS EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP SOME LIGHT FOG STARTING AROUND 08Z. SATURDAY...A
WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION. SOME CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FIRST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION INLAND WHERE THE BEST CAPE WILL DEVELOP. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...A STALLED FRONT IN THE GEORGETOWN SC VICINITY
HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT BLOWUP OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AFFECTING LARGE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY THE WATERS NEAR AND SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR BEFORE SUNSET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MUCH LESS AFTER SUNSET
BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING CAPE FEAR
LATER THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WHICH ARE STILL EASTERLY AT 3 PM SHOULD TURN
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED
EXPECTED.

SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN A 9-SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD WAVES PRODUCED BY LOCAL WINDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...THE MARINE WEEKEND HEADLINE...INCREASING SW
WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION MARINE
CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT....FOR 15-20
KT SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FEET. THEREFOR WHILE SATURDAY WILL BE
A MANAGEABLE DAY FOR BOATING...SUNDAY WILL BECOME BUMPY AND A BIT
MORE HAZARDOUS AS WIND-WAVES CONTINUE TO GROW IN PERSISTENT AND
MODERATELY STRONG SW WINDS. ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY...AND POTENTIALLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH WINDS UP ABOVE 20 KTS FROM THE SW ON MONDAY...DRIVING SEAS
TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAPID
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SPEEDS EASING THROUGH
TUESDAY TO 5-10 KTS. WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WATERS THEREAFTER...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME NE AROUND 10 KTS.
AFTER THE SCA CONDITIONS SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43








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