000
FXUS62 KILM 192345 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
745 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE
RISK OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL
LINGER SOUTH OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE NORTH...PUSHING SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LINGERING FRONT WILL NUDGE BACK TO
THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...CURRENT PCPN AND LATEST HRRR INDICATE
POPS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ILM CWA...AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST UP TO BALD HEAD
ISLAND. AND ALSO EXTENDING ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. OUT OF ALL THE PROGS...THE LATEST HRRR
CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE THE CURRENT AND PROGGED LOCATION OF THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT THE SFC WIND FIELD IN ITS WAKE. PCPN
ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING HAS MAINLY BEEN
BLOW-OFF STRATIFORM RAINS FROM THE CONVECTION AFFECTING THE CHS
CWA. ONCE DAY-TIME HEATING ENDS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE
IN COVERAGE BUT LIKELY LINGER DURING THE OVERNITE...AND WILL
THEREFORE KEEP A LOW POP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

LOOKING AT THE LATEST SAT IMAGERY...DO NOT SEE THE CLEARING BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT MODELS TRY TO INFILTRATE ACROSS THE FA OVERNITE.
WILL THEREFORE...INCREASE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT OF A LOW BLANKET OF CLOUDS...WILL INCREASE MIN TEMPS BY A
DEGREE...UP TO 3. IN ADDITION...HAVE ALSO UPPED HOURLY SFC
DEWPOINTS DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS AND LACK OF DRIER AIR
MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN I HAD INITIALLY EXPECTED AND HAS NOW CROSSED
THE SANTEE RIVER INTO NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY SC. THIS HAS
TAKEN VIRTUALLY ALL THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE
SANTEE RIVER WITH THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED DOWN
THERE. LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAIN BLOWING NORTHEAST FROM THE STORMS
IS SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES
AND MAY PUSH UP THE COAST TO MYRTLE BEACH AND EVEN BALD HEAD
ISLAND BY EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS RAIN SHOULD
AVERAGE ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...MUCH LIGHTER THAN
BEING EXPERIENCED SOUTH OF GEORGETOWN.

MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. OF THE 10 MODELS I LOOK AT...ONLY THREE OF THEM SHOW
THE CORRECT FRONTAL POSITION: THE HRRR...ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE
THREE OF THESE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF GEORGETOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY ALSO SHOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION
AROUND MIDNIGHT. NOCTURNAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY
SOMETHING WE SEE DURING THE SUMMER PARTICULARLY IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS LIKE WE HAVE HERE...SO AFTER RAM PING POPS DOWN THIS EVENING
I WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS...30-40 PERCENT IN THE
GEORGETOWN VICINITY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 65-70...WARMEST ALONG THE SC COAST
AND COOLER IN THE ELIZABETHTOWN/LUMBERTON AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS HEDGING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER AND WETTER FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AS FRONT
LINGERS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THEN
MOVES BACK NORTH AND WEST. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL
END UP PUSHING THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BACK
NORTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN
INTO THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS BUT THERE WILL BE A
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO AIR MASSES...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER TO THE NORTHWEST AND MUCH WETTER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS DIVIDING LINE END UP. PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS KEPT OUR AREA IN THE DRIER AIR BUT LATEST RUNS ARE
TRENDING TO A WETTER FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS ONE INCH BASICALLY WEST OF I95 AND UP TO
1.75 INCHES OR GREATER OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHC FOR DRIER NICER WEATHER WILL BE ON THURS
BEFORE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS PUSH NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ANY CHC OF
PCP JUST ALONG THE COAST AND PRIMARILY OVER COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA...BUT MAY END UP BEING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA EXCEPT INLAND COUNTIES...MAINLY WEST OF I95 WHERE DRIER
AND SUNNIER WEATHER SHOULD BE. BASICALLY ANY SHIFT IN THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CHANGE FORECAST QUITE A BIT AND THEREFORE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR FORECAST ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

PCP ALONG THE COAST...CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO 80 ALONG THE COAST TO
MID 80S INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
EXTENDED...BUT GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART IN A
DEVELOPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN...WITH RIDGING AT 500MB AND A
BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE. DURING NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL COMBINE WITH BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES TO CREATE
A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL..AND WIDESPREAD
90S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THIS PATTERN
TYPICALLY SUPPORTS SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...AND NEXT WEEK SHOULD
BE NO DIFFERENT. WITHOUT ANY MEANINGFUL CAP...AND PWATS RISING TO
NEAR TWO INCHES...HAVE CHC/SCHC CONVECTION EACH AFTN...WANING
NOCTURNALLY.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IN THE EXTENDED THEN IS THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL BE WEAKENING...AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WELL EAST...SYNOPTIC RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH THIS
BOUNDARY BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING SATURDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. QUESTION MARKS REMAIN AS TO HOW STRONG THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE...HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND WHETHER A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG IT. ATTM WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT...BUT MAY BE A BIT DRY...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL SUPPORT CHC POP SAT INTO SUN
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE. TEMPS WILL BE HINDERED DURING THE WKND
BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND EXPECT LOW/MID 80S SAT BEFORE WARMING AS
SOME COLUMN DRYING OCCURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING...WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MOVING
OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP VCSH FOR KMYR/KCRE THRU THE EVENING HOURS...
ALTHOUGH THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY WILL LIMIT ANY PCPN
IN THE FCST AREA. GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MVFR/IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMS AFTER 06Z...SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE INLAND
SITES. BEST CHANCES FOR IFR APPEAR TO BE FROM 09-12Z ATTM. MVFR CIGS
COULD LINGER THRU THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...
BEFORE DRYING OUT IN THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE INCHES DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. E/NE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KTS DURING THE DAY AS THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR THE COAST. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...AS MENTIONED BY THE PRIOR
FORECASTER...ONLY A FEW MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT LOCATION
OF THE COLD FRONT THAT BASICALLY WILL STALL AND REMAIN SOUTH AND
WELL EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS. LOOK FOR THE
SFC PG TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AS THE HIGH FLEXES
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE HRRR
OUTPUT WITH A SOLID 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT...EXCEPT 25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR.

THE LATEST RUN OF LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN HAS FINALLY COME CLOSER TO
CURRENT SEA CONDITIONS...AND WILL THEREFORE USE ITS OUTPUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY PERIOD. THE WIND DRIVEN 4 TO 6 SECOND
PERIOD WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 300 WEDNESDAY...DEFYING ALL EXPECTATIONS...THE FRONT HAS
CONTINUED TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH AND IS NOW IN NORTHERN CHARLESTON
COUNTY ABOUT 5-10 MILES SOUTH OF THE SANTEE RIVER. OF 10 MODELS I
HAVE ACCESS TO...ONLY THREE HAVE ANY CLUE ABOUT THE CURRENT POSITION
OF THIS FRONT: THE HRRR...ECMWF AND CANADIAN. BLENDING THE OUTPUT OF
THESE THREE MODELS TOGETHER SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY PRODUCING A MODERATE NORTHEAST SURGE
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW THE CRITERIA NEEDED TO ADD AN "EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE TO
THE FORECAST. THE ROUGHEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR. IN TERMS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE FRONT HAS
TAKEN MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY FROM MYRTLE
BEACH SOUTH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT
WHICH WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INITIALLY AND THEN BACK NORTH BY
FRIDAY. THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH AND STALLED FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KT THURSDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE
SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE MOST WATERS...BUT LOWER JUST SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR WHICH REMAINS BLOCKED FROM NORTHEAST WINDS.

GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH WINDS SUBSIDING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS THURS NIGHT AND CLOSER TO 10 KTS BY FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO DROP DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS VEER AROUND AS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH BECOMING MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY ON EAST SIDE OF BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST 10
KTS OR LESS ON WEST SIDE OF LINGERING FRONT AND MORE SOUTHERLY UP
TO 15 KTS ON EAST SIDE OF BOUNDARY WHICH MAY INTERSECT RIGHT
THROUGH OUR LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NE WINDS SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SE AS COASTAL TROUGH/REMNANT FRONT PUSHES WEST ONSHORE DURING
THE DAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHICH WILL THEN CONTROL THE
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...CREATING SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OVER THE WATERS. WITH THE
GRADIENT REMAINING RELATIVELY WEAK...WIND WAVE CONTRIBUTION TO THE
SPECTRUM WILL BE ONLY MINIMAL...AND THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES
(NE ON SATURDAY...SE SUN/MON) AND A GROWING SE SWELL WILL CREATE 2-4
FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...

000
FXUS62 KILM 192341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
741 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AS COLD FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE RISK
OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH PUSHING SOME DRIER AIR IN THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE LINGERING FRONT WILL NUDGE BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...CURRENT PCPN AND LATEST HRRR INDICATE
POPS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ILM CWA...AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST UP TO BALD HEAD
ISLAND. AND ALSO EXTENDING ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. OUT OF ALL THE PROGS...THE LATEST HRRR
CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE THE CURRENT AND PROGGED LOCATION OF THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT THE SFC WIND FIELD IN ITS WAKE. PCPN
ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING HAS MAINLY BEEN
BLOW-OFF STRATIFORM RAINS FROM THE CONVECTION AFFECTING THE CHS
CWA. ONCE DAY-TIME HEATING ENDS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE
IN COVERAGE BUT LIKELY LINGER DURING THE OVERNITE...AND WILL
THEREFORE KEEP A LOW POP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

LOOKING AT THE LATEST SAT IMAGERY...DO NOT SEE THE CLEARING BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT MODELS TRY TO INFILTRATE ACROSS THE FA OVERNITE.
WILL THEREFORE...INCREASE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT OF A LOW BLANKET OF CLOUDS...WILL INCREASE MIN TEMPS BY A
DEGREE...UP TO 3. IN ADDITION...HAVE ALSO UPPED HOURLY SFC
DEWPOINTS DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS AND LACK OF DRIER AIR
MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN I HAD INITIALLY EXPECTED AND HAS NOW CROSSED
THE SANTEE RIVER INTO NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY SC. THIS HAS
TAKEN VIRTUALLY ALL THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE
SANTEE RIVER WITH THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED DOWN
THERE. LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAIN BLOWING NORTHEAST FROM THE STORMS
IS SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES
AND MAY PUSH UP THE COAST TO MYRTLE BEACH AND EVEN BALD HEAD
ISLAND BY EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS RAIN SHOULD
AVERAGE ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...MUCH LIGHTER THAN
BEING EXPERIENCED SOUTH OF GEORGETOWN.

MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. OF THE 10 MODELS I LOOK AT...ONLY THREE OF THEM SHOW
THE CORRECT FRONTAL POSITION: THE HRRR...ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE
THREE OF THESE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF GEORGETOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY ALSO SHOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION
AROUND MIDNIGHT. NOCTURNAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY
SOMETHING WE SEE DURING THE SUMMER PARTICULARLY IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS LIKE WE HAVE HERE...SO AFTER RAM PING POPS DOWN THIS EVENING
I WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS...30-40 PERCENT IN THE
GEORGETOWN VICINITY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 65-70...WARMEST ALONG THE SC COAST
AND COOLER IN THE ELIZABETHTOWN/LUMBERTON AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS HEDGING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER AND WETTER FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AS FRONT
LINGERS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THEN
MOVES BACK NORTH AND WEST. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL
END UP PUSHING THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BACK
NORTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN
INTO THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS BUT THERE WILL BE A
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO AIR MASSES...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER TO THE NORTHWEST AND MUCH WETTER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS DIVIDING LINE END UP. PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS KEPT OUR AREA IN THE DRIER AIR BUT LATEST RUNS ARE
TRENDING TO A WETTER FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS ONE INCH BASICALLY WEST OF I95 AND UP TO
1.75 INCHES OR GREATER OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHC FOR DRIER NICER WEATHER WILL BE ON THURS
BEFORE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS PUSH NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ANY CHC OF
PCP JUST ALONG THE COAST AND PRIMARILY OVER COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA...BUT MAY END UP BEING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA EXCEPT INLAND COUNTIES...MAINLY WEST OF I95 WHERE DRIER
AND SUNNIER WEATHER SHOULD BE. BASICALLY ANY SHIFT IN THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CHANGE FORECAST QUITE A BIT AND THEREFORE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR FORECAST ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

PCP ALONG THE COAST...CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO 80 ALONG THE COAST TO
MID 80S INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
EXTENDED...BUT GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART IN A
DEVELOPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN...WITH RIDGING AT 500MB AND A
BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE. DURING NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL COMBINE WITH BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES TO CREATE
A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL..AND WIDESPREAD
90S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THIS PATTERN
TYPICALLY SUPPORTS SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...AND NEXT WEEK SHOULD
BE NO DIFFERENT. WITHOUT ANY MEANINGFUL CAP...AND PWATS RISING TO
NEAR TWO INCHES...HAVE CHC/SCHC CONVECTION EACH AFTN...WANING
NOCTURNALLY.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IN THE EXTENDED THEN IS THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL BE WEAKENING...AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WELL EAST...SYNOPTIC RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH THIS
BOUNDARY BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING SATURDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. QUESTION MARKS REMAIN AS TO HOW STRONG THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE...HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND WHETHER A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG IT. ATTM WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT...BUT MAY BE A BIT DRY...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL SUPPORT CHC POP SAT INTO SUN
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE. TEMPS WILL BE HINDERED DURING THE WKND
BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND EXPECT LOW/MID 80S SAT BEFORE WARMING AS
SOME COLUMN DRYING OCCURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING...WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MOVING
OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP VCSH FOR KMYR/KCRE THRU THE EVENING HOURS...
ALTHOUGH THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY WILL LIMIT ANY PCPN
IN THE FCST AREA. GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MVFR/IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMS AFTER 06Z...SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE INLAND
SITES. BEST CHANCES FOR IFR APPEAR TO BE FROM 09-12Z ATTM. MVFR CIGS
COULD LINGER THRU THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...
BEFORE DRYING OUT IN THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE INCHES DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. E/NE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KTS DURING THE DAY AS THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR THE COAST. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...AS MENTIONED BY THE PRIOR
FORECASTER...ONLY A FEW MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT LOCATION
OF THE COLD FRONT THAT BASICALLY WILL STALL AND REMAIN SOUTH AND
WELL EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS. LOOK FOR THE
SFC PG TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AS THE HIGH FLEXES
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE HRRR
OUTPUT WITH A SOLID 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT...EXCEPT 25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR.

THE LATEST RUN OF LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN HAS FINALLY COME CLOSER TO
CURRENT SEA CONDITIONS...AND WILL THEREFORE USE ITS OUTPUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY PERIOD. THE WIND DRIVEN 4 TO 6 SECOND
PERIOD WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 300 WEDNESDAY...DEFYING ALL EXPECTATIONS...THE FRONT HAS
CONTINUED TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH AND IS NOW IN NORTHERN CHARLESTON
COUNTY ABOUT 5-10 MILES SOUTH OF THE SANTEE RIVER. OF 10 MODELS I
HAVE ACCESS TO...ONLY THREE HAVE ANY CLUE ABOUT THE CURRENT POSITION
OF THIS FRONT: THE HRRR...ECMWF AND CANADIAN. BLENDING THE OUTPUT OF
THESE THREE MODELS TOGETHER SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY PRODUCING A MODERATE NORTHEAST SURGE
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW THE CRITERIA NEEDED TO ADD AN "EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE TO
THE FORECAST. THE ROUGHEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR. IN TERMS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE FRONT HAS
TAKEN MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY FROM MYRTLE
BEACH SOUTH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT
WHICH WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INITIALLY AND THEN BACK NORTH BY
FRIDAY. THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH AND STALLED FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KT THURSDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE
SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE MOST WATERS...BUT LOWER JUST SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR WHICH REMAINS BLOCKED FROM NORTHEAST WINDS.

GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH WINDS SUBSIDING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS THURS NIGHT AND CLOSER TO 10 KTS BY FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO DROP DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS VEER AROUND AS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH BECOMING MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY ON EAST SIDE OF BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST 10
KTS OR LESS ON WEST SIDE OF LINGERING FRONT AND MORE SOUTHERLY UP
TO 15 KTS ON EAST SIDE OF BOUNDARY WHICH MAY INTERSECT RIGHT
THROUGH OUR LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NE WINDS SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SE AS COASTAL TROUGH/REMNANT FRONT PUSHES WEST ONSHORE DURING
THE DAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHICH WILL THEN CONTROL THE
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...CREATING SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OVER THE WATERS. WITH THE
GRADIENT REMAINING RELATIVELY WEAK...WIND WAVE CONTRIBUTION TO THE
SPECTRUM WILL BE ONLY MINIMAL...AND THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES
(NE ON SATURDAY...SE SUN/MON) AND A GROWING SE SWELL WILL CREATE 2-4
FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KILM 191943
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
343 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AS COLD FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE RISK
OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH PUSHING SOME DRIER AIR IN THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE LINGERING FRONT WILL NUDGE BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN I HAD INITIALLY EXPECTED AND HAS NOW CROSSED THE
SANTEE RIVER INTO NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY SC. THIS HAS TAKEN
VIRTUALLY ALL THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE SANTEE
RIVER WITH THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED DOWN THERE.
LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAIN BLOWING NORTHEAST FROM THE STORMS IS
SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES AND
MAY PUSH UP THE COAST TO MYRTLE BEACH AND EVEN BALD HEAD ISLAND BY
EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS RAIN SHOULD AVERAGE ONLY
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...MUCH LIGHTER THAN BEING EXPERIENCED
SOUTH OF GEORGETOWN.

MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. OF THE 10 MODELS I LOOK AT...ONLY THREE OF THEM SHOW
THE CORRECT FRONTAL POSITION: THE HRRR...ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE
THREE OF THESE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF GEORGETOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY ALSO SHOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION
AROUND MIDNIGHT. NOCTURNAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY
SOMETHING WE SEE DURING THE SUMMER PARTICULARLY IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS LIKE WE HAVE HERE...SO AFTER RAMPING POPS DOWN THIS EVENING
I WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS...30-40 PERCENT IN THE
GEORGETOWN VICINITY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 65-70...WARMEST ALONG THE SC COAST
AND COOLER IN THE ELIZABETHTOWN/LUMBERTON AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS HEDGING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER AND WETTER FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AS FRONT
LINGERS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THEN
MOVES BACK NORTH AND WEST. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL END UP
PUSHING THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BACK NORTH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS BUT THERE WILL BE A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO AIR MASSES...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER TO THE NORTHWEST AND MUCH WETTER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS DIVIDING LINE END UP. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS KEPT OUR AREA IN THE DRIER AIR BUT LATEST RUNS ARE TRENDING
TO A WETTER FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. PCP WATER VALUES
WILL BE AS LOW AS ONE INCH BASICALLY WEST OF I95 AND UP TO 1.75
INCHES OR GREATER OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHC FOR DRIER NICER WEATHER WILL BE ON THURS
BEFORE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS PUSH NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ANY CHC OF
PCP JUST ALONG THE COAST AND PRIMARILY OVER COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA...BUT MAY END UP BEING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA EXCEPT INLAND COUNTIES...MAINLY WEST OF I95 WHERE DRIER
AND SUNNIER WEATHER SHOULD BE. BASICALLY ANY SHIFT IN THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CHANGE FORECAST QUITE A BIT AND THEREFORE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR FORECAST ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

PCP ALONG THE COAST...CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO 80 ALONG THE COAST TO
MID 80S INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
EXTENDED...BUT GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART IN A
DEVELOPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN...WITH RIDGING AT 500MB AND A
BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE. DURING NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL COMBINE WITH BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES TO CREATE
A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL..AND WIDESPREAD
90S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THIS PATTERN
TYPICALLY SUPPORTS SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...AND NEXT WEEK SHOULD
BE NO DIFFERENT. WITHOUT ANY MEANINGFUL CAP...AND PWATS RISING TO
NEAR TWO INCHES...HAVE CHC/SCHC CONVECTION EACH AFTN...WANING
NOCTURNALLY.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IN THE EXTENDED THEN IS THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL BE WEAKENING...AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WELL EAST...SYNOPTIC RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH THIS
BOUNDARY BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING SATURDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. QUESTION MARKS REMAIN AS TO HOW STRONG THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE...HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND WHETHER A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG IT. ATTM WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT...BUT MAY BE A BIT DRY...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL SUPPORT CHC POP SAT INTO SUN
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE. TEMPS WILL BE HINDERED DURING THE WKND
BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND EXPECT LOW/MID 80S SAT BEFORE WARMING AS
SOME COLUMN DRYING OCCURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOWERED CIGS/AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

ANTICIPATE TEMPO/INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE
THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED NEAR A COLD FRONT LOCATED BETWEEN MYR AND
CHS. THIS EVENING ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE LATE NIGHT STRATUS WILL CREATE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. INTO THE MORNING HOURS CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
BUT ANTICIPATE VFR DEVELOPING BY NOON LOCAL TIME WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS AOB 12 KTS...WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 WEDNESDAY...DEFYING ALL EXPECTATIONS...THE FRONT HAS
CONTINUED TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH AND IS NOW IN NORTHERN CHARLESTON
COUNTY ABOUT 5-10 MILES SOUTH OF THE SANTEE RIVER. OF 10 MODELS I
HAVE ACCESS TO...ONLY THREE HAVE ANY CLUE ABOUT THE CURRENT POSITION
OF THIS FRONT: THE HRRR...ECMWF AND CANADIAN. BLENDING THE OUTPUT OF
THESE THREE MODELS TOGETHER SHOWS THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY PRODUCING A MODERATE NORTHEAST SURGE
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW THE CRITERIA NEEDED TO ADD AN "EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE TO
THE FORECAST. THE ROUGHEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR. IN TERMS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE FRONT HAS
TAKEN MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY FROM MYRTLE
BEACH SOUTH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT
WHICH WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INITIALLY AND THEN BACK NORTH BY
FRIDAY. THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH AND STALLED FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KT THURSDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE
SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE MOST WATERS...BUT LOWER JUST SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR WHICH REMAINS BLOCKED FROM NORTHEAST WINDS.

GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH WINDS SUBSIDING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS THURS NIGHT AND CLOSER TO 10 KTS BY FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO DROP DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS VEER AROUND AS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH BECOMING MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY ON EAST SIDE OF BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST 10
KTS OR LESS ON WEST SIDE OF LILNGERING FRONT AND MORE SOUTHERLY UP
TO 15 KTS ON EAST SIDE OF BOUNDARY WHICH MAY INTERSECT RIGHT
THROUGH OUR LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NE WINDS SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SE AS COASTAL TROUGH/REMNANT FRONT PUSHES WEST ONSHORE DURING
THE DAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHICH WILL THEN CONTROL THE
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...CREATING SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OVER THE WATERS. WITH THE
GRADIENT REMAINING RELATIVELY WEAK...WIND WAVE CONTRIBUTION TO THE
SPECTRUM WILL BE ONLY MINIMAL...AND THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES
(NE ON SATURDAY...SE SUN/MON) AND A GROWING SE SWELL WILL CREATE 2-4
FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA/SGL

000
FXUS62 KILM 191714
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
114 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY END FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT MAY MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHED MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH THAN I INITIALLY THOUGHT...NOW STALLING IN THE GEORGETOWN SC
VICINITY. FAIRLY DENSE LOW CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
IS LIMITING INSOLATION...SO FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE GEORGETOWN/SANTEE
RIVER VICINITY I HAVE SHAVED ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OFF FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. WITH THE ATTENDANT COOLER/CLOUDIER WEATHER
IS A SUBSEQUENT REDUCTION IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...THEREFORE I
AM REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING FOR AREAS NORTH OF KINGSTREE-OUTLAND-MYRTLE BEACH WHERE IT
APPEARS THE ATMOSPHERE MAY REMAIN TOO STABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH
FLORENCE...MARION...WHITEVILLE AND WILMINGTON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRIER AIR LEAKS IN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 1030 AM FOLLOWS...

A COLD FRONT HAS SLID THROUGH THROUGH OVER HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM NORTH MYRTLE BEACH WEST
ACROSS CONWAY...THROUGH CENTRAL MARION COUNTY TO NEAR LAKE CITY.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ACTUAL
FRONT...THIS WILL CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM BENNETTSVILLE THROUGH LUMBERTON INTO NORTHERN
BLADEN COUNTY APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY JUST
ABOVE A WEAK CAP AT 850 MB INTERACTING WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 300 MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AS WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AT THE 850
MB LEVEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THESE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF.

THIS AFTERNOON THE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE
FRONT ITSELF AND TO THE AREA OF BUILDING INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
TODAY TO 70 PERCENT FROM SOUTHERN FLORENCE COUNTY EAST ACROSS THE
GRAND STRAND INTO THE CAPE FEAR AREA. AS 0-6 KM STORM MOTION VECTORS
SHRINK WITH WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH (NEAR 2.0 INCHES) THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL
INCREASE. MOST SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE PLUS THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR PLACE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS HORRY COUNTY
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER I HAVE BACKED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO
IN MOST SPOTS...WITH LOWER 80S NOW FORECAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE OCEAN THIS EVENING WITH INLAND AREAS DRYING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST DURING
THE PERIOD WHILE COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST. FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH SLOWLY BUILDING 5H RIDGE HELPS DRY THE REGION OUT. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DROP PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1 INCH LATE THU AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS
LIKELY TO MANIFEST ITSELF AS A SCATTERED TO BROKEN FLAT STRATOCU
DECK IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES
NEAR THE COAST FROM ACTIVITY MOVING ON SHORE BUT DEEP DRY AIR
SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR ARRIVES THU NIGHT BUT IS SHORT LIVED AS
STALLED BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST FRI MORNING. LOWS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THU NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE DURING THE DAY
FRI AS THE BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE. BOUNDARY BECOMES SOMEWHAT
DIFFUSE AT THIS POINT BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OPENING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIR AND THE
WEAK SUBSIDENCE DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BUT FEEL
IT DOES WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC POP...MAINLY CONFINED TO COASTAL
COUNTIES. DESPITE CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW MORE SUN SHOULD LEAD
TO HIGHS A LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO. CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST WILL CREATE A LARGER SPREAD FOR LOWS FRI
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO ALONG
THE COAST TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS FOR THE DURATION OF THE
LONG TERM. THE DECENT AGREEMENT SEEN LAST NIGHT HAS EVAPORATED
LEAVING SEVERAL POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO PONDER. THESE RANGE FROM
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK TO VERY WET WITH
POSSIBLE FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. COMMON
THEME AMONG THEM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE
PATTERNS AND THE PRESENCE OF LINGER SURFACE BOUNDARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES HOLD.

THE KEY TO THE PERIOD WILL BE HOW DEFINED THE BOUNDARY REMAINS AND
HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS WHEN THE BOUNDARY COMES ONSHORE AND
THEN LIFTS NORTH. THE ECMWF IS CURRENTLY THE DRIEST AND ALSO THE
SOLUTION WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF QUESTIONS CONCERNING ITS VALIDITY.
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AFFECTED BY FEEDBACK WHICH MAY BE HELPING
MAINTAIN A STRONGER SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THE
CANADIAN DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE
CAROLINAS...DEPENDING ON THE RUN. THIS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT COMMON
FOR THE CANADIAN RECENTLY AS IT HAS BEEN TRYING TO TURN WEAK WAVES
ALONG STALLED COASTAL FRONTS INTO MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOWS
WITH LITTLE SUCCESS. FOR NOW WILL IGNORE ITS SOLUTION GIVEN
RECENT PERFORMANCES AND THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY. THE RESULT IS
MINIMAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
POP EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM BELOW
CLIMO TO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOWERED CIGS/AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

ANTICIPATE TEMPO/INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE
THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED NEAR A COLD FRONT LOCATED BETWEEN MYR AND
CHS. THIS EVENING ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE LATE NIGHT STRATUS WILL CREATE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. INTO THE MORNING HOURS CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
BUT ANTICIPATE VFR DEVELOPING BY NOON LOCAL TIME WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS AOB 12 KTS...WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...THAT FRONT HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
NEAR WINYAH BAY NEAR GEORGETOWN...WITH NORTH WINDS REPORTS ALL ALONG
THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NOW. SINCE INLAND AIR TEMPERATURES
ARE RISING WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE SHOULD BE OVER TO ARREST THE
SOUTHWARD MOTION OF THIS BOUNDARY KEEPING IT NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS WINYAH BAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS VERY BAD NEWS
HOWEVER FOR BOATERS IN THIS AREA...AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE EVENING
ARRIVES. NORTH OF THE FRONT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL INTENSITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 AM
FOLLOWS...

A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AS FAR AS BALD HEAD ISLAND AND OAK
ISLAND WHERE WINDS ARE NOW REPORTED ON MESONET STATIONS TO BE FROM
THE NORTH. WEST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA WHERE THE
FRONT HAS YET TO REACH. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
THIS AFTERNOON AS WARMING INLAND TEMPERATURES FORCE A WEAK SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION TO COUNTER THE FRONT. IN FACT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
TEMPORARILY REDEVELOP ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE GULF STREAM IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. NEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING INLAND AND SOME OF THESE MAY GROW
INTO THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY FROM JUST AROUND CAPE FEAR SOUTH THROUGH THE GRAND
STRAND.

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT BUILT SEAS TO 5 FT AT
THE OCEAN CREST PIER GAUGE AND 7 FT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY.
ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVE FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INCLUDE A LARGE
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF +3 FT ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST WITHIN
5-8 MILES OF SHORE...TAPERING DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SINCE WEST
WINDS HAVE ENDED AND LIGHTER SPEEDS ARE DEVELOPING. THIS GIVES
FORECASTS OF GENERALLY 3-5 FT FOR THE NC WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE
SC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND STALLED FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL PRODUCE
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THU AND THU NIGHT. GRADIENT
STARTS TO WEAKEN LATE THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO A SOLID 15
KT BY FRI MORNING. FURTHER REDUCTION IN GRADIENT FRI WILL KEEP
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
EASTERLY FRI NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SETTLE SOUTH.
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS REMAINS OF STALLED FRONT LIFT INTO
THE AREA. AS A RESULT SPEEDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KT BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO STRONG NORTHEAST
FLOW SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO FRI. GRADUALLY REDUCTION IN WINDS LATE
THU NIGHT AND FRI ALLOWS SEAS TO FALL TO 2 TO 3 FT BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKLY BUILDING DOWN THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD WILL KEEP
WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 KT OR
LESS BUT COULD VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT ANY GIVEN
TIME...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE REMAINS OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. LIGHT WIND FIELD WILL
MAINTAIN 2 TO 3 FT SEAS WITH HIGHEST SEAS SAT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL

000
FXUS62 KILM 191431
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1031 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY END FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT MAY MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS SLID THROUGH THROUGH
OVER HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG A LINE
FROM NORTH MYRTLE BEACH WEST ACROSS CONWAY...THROUGH CENTRAL MARION
COUNTY TO NEAR LAKE CITY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT...THIS WILL CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A
PERSISTENT LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM BENNETTSVILLE THROUGH
LUMBERTON INTO NORTHERN BLADEN COUNTY APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE A WEAK CAP AT 850 MB INTERACTING
WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING
300 MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AS WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AT THE 850 MB LEVEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF.

THIS AFTERNOON THE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE
FRONT ITSELF AND TO THE AREA OF BUILDING INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
TODAY TO 70 PERCENT FROM SOUTHERN FLORENCE COUNTY EAST ACROSS THE
GRAND STRAND INTO THE CAPE FEAR AREA. AS 0-6 KM STORM MOTION VECTORS
SHRINK WITH WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH (NEAR 2.0 INCHES) THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL
INCREASE. MOST SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE PLUS THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR PLACE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS HORRY COUNTY
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER I HAVE BACKED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO
IN MOST SPOTS...WITH LOWER 80S NOW FORECAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE OCEAN THIS EVENING WITH INLAND AREAS DRYING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST DURING
THE PERIOD WHILE COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST. FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH SLOWLY BUILDING 5H RIDGE HELPS DRY THE REGION OUT. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DROP PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1 INCH LATE THU AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS
LIKELY TO MANIFEST ITSELF AS A SCATTERED TO BROKEN FLAT STRATOCU
DECK IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES
NEAR THE COAST FROM ACTIVITY MOVING ON SHORE BUT DEEP DRY AIR
SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR ARRIVES THU NIGHT BUT IS SHORT LIVED AS
STALLED BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST FRI MORNING. LOWS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THU NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE DURING THE DAY
FRI AS THE BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE. BOUNDARY BECOMES SOMEWHAT
DIFFUSE AT THIS POINT BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OPENING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIR AND THE
WEAK SUBSIDENCE DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BUT FEEL
IT DOES WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC POP...MAINLY CONFINED TO COASTAL
COUNTIES. DESPITE CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW MORE SUN SHOULD LEAD
TO HIGHS A LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO. CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST WILL CREATE A LARGER SPREAD FOR LOWS FRI
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO ALONG
THE COAST TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS FOR THE DURATION OF THE
LONG TERM. THE DECENT AGREEMENT SEEN LAST NIGHT HAS EVAPORATED
LEAVING SEVERAL POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO PONDER. THESE RANGE FROM
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK TO VERY WET WITH
POSSIBLE FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. COMMON
THEME AMONG THEM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE
PATTERNS AND THE PRESENCE OF LINGER SURFACE BOUNDARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES HOLD.

THE KEY TO THE PERIOD WILL BE HOW DEFINED THE BOUNDARY REMAINS AND
HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS WHEN THE BOUNDARY COMES ONSHORE AND
THEN LIFTS NORTH. THE ECMWF IS CURRENTLY THE DRIEST AND ALSO THE
SOLUTION WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF QUESTIONS CONCERNING ITS VALIDITY.
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AFFECTED BY FEEDBACK WHICH MAY BE HELPING
MAINTAIN A STRONGER SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THE
CANADIAN DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE
CAROLINAS...DEPENDING ON THE RUN. THIS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT COMMON
FOR THE CANADIAN RECENTLY AS IT HAS BEEN TRYING TO TURN WEAK WAVES
ALONG STALLED COASTAL FRONTS INTO MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOWS
WITH LITTLE SUCCESS. FOR NOW WILL IGNORE ITS SOLUTION GIVEN
RECENT PERFORMANCES AND THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY. THE RESULT IS
MINIMAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
POP EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM BELOW
CLIMO TO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR DUE
TO LOWERED CIGS/AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

AS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STALLED AS IT NEARS THE COAST...AND GIVEN
LATEST GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING
OF ACTIVITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN VCTS WITH PERIODS OF
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL/REDUCED RESTRICTIONS. INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF...WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE STRATUS TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS..WITH AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AOB 8 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AS FAR AS
BALD HEAD ISLAND AND OAK ISLAND WHERE WINDS ARE NOW REPORTED ON
MESONET STATIONS TO BE FROM THE NORTH. WEST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE
MYRTLE BEACH AREA WHERE THE FRONT HAS YET TO REACH. THE FRONT SHOULD
SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON AS WARMING INLAND
TEMPERATURES FORCE A WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO COUNTER THE
FRONT. IN FACT ONSHORE WINDS COULD TEMPORARILY REDEVELOP ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE GULF STREAM IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. NEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING INLAND AND SOME OF THESE MAY GROW
INTO THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY FROM JUST AROUND CAPE FEAR SOUTH THROUGH THE GRAND
STRAND.

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT BUILT SEAS TO 5 FT AT
THE OCEAN CREST PIER GAUGE AND 7 FT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY.
ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVE FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INCLUDE A LARGE
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF +3 FT ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST WITHIN
5-8 MILES OF SHORE...TAPERING DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SINCE WEST
WINDS HAVE ENDED AND LIGHTER SPEEDS ARE DEVELOPING. THIS GIVES
FORECASTS OF GENERALLY 3-5 FT FOR THE NC WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE
SC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND STALLED FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL PRODUCE
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THU AND THU NIGHT. GRADIENT
STARTS TO WEAKEN LATE THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO A SOLID 15
KT BY FRI MORNING. FURTHER REDUCTION IN GRADIENT FRI WILL KEEP
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
EASTERLY FRI NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SETTLE SOUTH.
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS REMAINS OF STALLED FRONT LIFT INTO
THE AREA. AS A RESULT SPEEDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KT BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO STRONG NORTHEAST
FLOW SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO FRI. GRADUALLY REDUCTION IN WINDS LATE
THU NIGHT AND FRI ALLOWS SEAS TO FALL TO 2 TO 3 FT BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKLY BUILDING DOWN THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD WILL KEEP
WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 KT OR
LESS BUT COULD VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT ANY GIVEN
TIME...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE REMAINS OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. LIGHT WIND FIELD WILL
MAINTAIN 2 TO 3 FT SEAS WITH HIGHEST SEAS SAT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL

000
FXUS62 KILM 191153
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
753 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY END FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OR REDEVELOP OFF THE COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF A UDG TO
LBT TO EYF LINE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS JUST SLIPPED OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY GET HUNG UP FOR A TIME AS THE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT. A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS LARGELY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR N
ATTEMPTS TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE N AND THEN NE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...LASTLY ACROSS
MYRTLE BEACH AND GEORGETOWN LATE DAY AND THIS EVE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL TOP 2 INCHES TODAY...TRENDING SLOWLY
LOWER DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY FROM N TO S. THE DRY AIR WILL
BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED INLAND TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE MUCH
TOUGHER TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT INROADS ALONG THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PEE DEE THROUGH LBT AND EYF.

THICK CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
AND SO NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...STORM MOTIONS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KT AND WITH SUCH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN. WILL INDICATE THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH POPS SLOWLY TRENDING
LOWER ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL CARRY POPS AS HIGH AS
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL TODAY. POPS WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST INTO THE EVE. THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO END FROM NNW TO SSE DURING THE
EVE...WITH ONLY A SMALL RISK ALONG THE COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA...LOWER
TO MID 80S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BEGIN TO
LOWER ACROSS N/NW ZONES LATER TODAY AND MORE SO TONIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT COULD VARY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE
MAKING ITSELF FELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 60S ACROSS MANY INLAND AREAS WITH LOWER 70S HANGING ON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST DURING
THE PERIOD WHILE COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST. FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH SLOWLY BUILDING 5H RIDGE HELPS DRY THE REGION OUT. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DROP PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1 INCH LATE THU AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS
LIKELY TO MANIFEST ITSELF AS A SCATTERED TO BROKEN FLAT STRATOCU
DECK IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES
NEAR THE COAST FROM ACTIVITY MOVING ON SHORE BUT DEEP DRY AIR
SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR ARRIVES THU NIGHT BUT IS SHORT LIVED AS
STALLED BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST FRI MORNING. LOWS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THU NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE DURING THE DAY
FRI AS THE BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE. BOUNDARY BECOMES SOMEWHAT
DIFFUSE AT THIS POINT BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OPENING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIR AND THE
WEAK SUBSIDENCE DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BUT FEEL
IT DOES WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC POP...MAINLY CONFINED TO COASTAL
COUNTIES. DESPITE CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW MORE SUN SHOULD LEAD
TO HIGHS A LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO. CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST WILL CREATE A LARGER SPREAD FOR LOWS FRI
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO ALONG
THE COAST TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS FOR THE DURATION OF THE
LONG TERM. THE DECENT AGREEMENT SEEN LAST NIGHT HAS EVAPORATED
LEAVING SEVERAL POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO PONDER. THESE RANGE FROM
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK TO VERY WET WITH
POSSIBLE FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. COMMON
THEME AMONG THEM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE
PATTERNS AND THE PRESENCE OF LINGER SURFACE BOUNDARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES HOLD.

THE KEY TO THE PERIOD WILL BE HOW DEFINED THE BOUNDARY REMAINS AND
HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS WHEN THE BOUNDARY COMES ONSHORE AND
THEN LIFTS NORTH. THE ECMWF IS CURRENTLY THE DRIEST AND ALSO THE
SOLUTION WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF QUESTIONS CONCERNING ITS VALIDITY.
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AFFECTED BY FEEDBACK WHICH MAY BE HELPING
MAINTAIN A STRONGER SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THE
CANADIAN DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE
CAROLINAS...DEPENDING ON THE RUN. THIS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT COMMON
FOR THE CANADIAN RECENTLY AS IT HAS BEEN TRYING TO TURN WEAK WAVES
ALONG STALLED COASTAL FRONTS INTO MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOWS
WITH LITTLE SUCCESS. FOR NOW WILL IGNORE ITS SOLUTION GIVEN
RECENT PERFORMANCES AND THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY. THE RESULT IS
MINIMAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
POP EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM BELOW
CLIMO TO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR DUE
TO LOWERED CIGS/AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

AS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STALLED AS IT NEARS THE COAST...AND GIVEN
LATEST GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING
OF ACTIVITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN VCTS WITH PERIODS OF
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL/REDUCED RESTRICTIONS. INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF...WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE STRATUS TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS..WITH AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AOB 8 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 1 NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. COVERAGE WILL BE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT.

SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND THEN NE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS S
ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. THE NORTHERN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE
WIND SHIFT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE THE WIND SHIFT DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
EVE HOURS. A NE SURGE WILL ACTUALLY WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY EARLY AND THEN IN THE NE SURGE OVERNIGHT AND THU
MORNING...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND NEAR 15
KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
AND THEN REVERSE HIGHER OVERNIGHT. WILL CAP SEAS AT 5 FT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND 4 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WILL HEADLINE
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH NO HEADLINES FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. A HEADLINE MAY
AGAIN BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND STALLED FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL PRODUCE
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THU AND THU NIGHT. GRADIENT
STARTS TO WEAKEN LATE THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO A SOLID 15
KT BY FRI MORNING. FURTHER REDUCTION IN GRADIENT FRI WILL KEEP
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
EASTERLY FRI NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SETTLE SOUTH.
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS REMAINS OF STALLED FRONT LIFT INTO
THE AREA. AS A RESULT SPEEDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KT BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO STRONG NORTHEAST
FLOW SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO FRI. GRADUALLY REDUCTION IN WINDS LATE
THU NIGHT AND FRI ALLOWS SEAS TO FALL TO 2 TO 3 FT BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKLY BUILDING DOWN THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD WILL KEEP
WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 KT OR
LESS BUT COULD VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT ANY GIVEN
TIME...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE REMAINS OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. LIGHT WIND FIELD WILL
MAINTAIN 2 TO 3 FT SEAS WITH HIGHEST SEAS SAT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL

000
FXUS62 KILM 191026
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY END FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OR REDEVELOP OFF THE COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF A UDG TO
LBT TO EYF LINE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS JUST SLIPPED OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY GET HUNG UP FOR A TIME AS THE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT. A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS LARGELY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR N
ATTEMPTS TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE N AND THEN NE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...LASTLY ACROSS
MYRTLE BEACH AND GEORGETOWN LATE DAY AND THIS EVE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL TOP 2 INCHES TODAY...TRENDING SLOWLY
LOWER DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY FROM N TO S. THE DRY AIR WILL
BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED INLAND TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE MUCH
TOUGHER TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT INROADS ALONG THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PEE DEE THROUGH LBT AND EYF.

THICK CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
AND SO NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...STORM MOTIONS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KT AND WITH SUCH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN. WILL INDICATE THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH POPS SLOWLY TRENDING
LOWER ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL CARRY POPS AS HIGH AS
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL TODAY. POPS WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST INTO THE EVE. THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO END FROM NNW TO SSE DURING THE
EVE...WITH ONLY A SMALL RISK ALONG THE COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA...LOWER
TO MID 80S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BEGIN TO
LOWER ACROSS N/NW ZONES LATER TODAY AND MORE SO TONIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT COULD VARY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE
MAKING ITSELF FELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 60S ACROSS MANY INLAND AREAS WITH LOWER 70S HANGING ON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST DURING
THE PERIOD WHILE COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST. FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH SLOWLY BUILDING 5H RIDGE HELPS DRY THE REGION OUT. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DROP PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1 INCH LATE THU AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS
LIKELY TO MANIFEST ITSELF AS A SCATTERED TO BROKEN FLAT STRATOCU
DECK IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES
NEAR THE COAST FROM ACTIVITY MOVING ON SHORE BUT DEEP DRY AIR
SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR ARRIVES THU NIGHT BUT IS SHORT LIVED AS
STALLED BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST FRI MORNING. LOWS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THU NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE DURING THE DAY
FRI AS THE BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE. BOUNDARY BECOMES SOMEWHAT
DIFFUSE AT THIS POINT BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OPENING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIR AND THE
WEAK SUBSIDENCE DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BUT FEEL
IT DOES WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC POP...MAINLY CONFINED TO COASTAL
COUNTIES. DESPITE CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW MORE SUN SHOULD LEAD
TO HIGHS A LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO. CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST WILL CREATE A LARGER SPREAD FOR LOWS FRI
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO ALONG
THE COAST TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS FOR THE DURATION OF THE
LONG TERM. THE DECENT AGREEMENT SEEN LAST NIGHT HAS EVAPORATED
LEAVING SEVERAL POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO PONDER. THESE RANGE FROM
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK TO VERY WET WITH
POSSIBLE FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. COMMON
THEME AMONG THEM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE
PATTERNS AND THE PRESENCE OF LINGER SURFACE BOUNDARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES HOLD.

THE KEY TO THE PERIOD WILL BE HOW DEFINED THE BOUNDARY REMAINS AND
HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS WHEN THE BOUNDARY COMES ONSHORE AND
THEN LIFTS NORTH. THE ECMWF IS CURRENTLY THE DRIEST AND ALSO THE
SOLUTION WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF QUESTIONS CONCERNING ITS VALIDITY.
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AFFECTED BY FEEDBACK WHICH MAY BE HELPING
MAINTAIN A STRONGER SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THE
CANADIAN DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE
CAROLINAS...DEPENDING ON THE RUN. THIS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT COMMON
FOR THE CANADIAN RECENTLY AS IT HAS BEEN TRYING TO TURN WEAK WAVES
ALONG STALLED COASTAL FRONTS INTO MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOWS
WITH LITTLE SUCCESS. FOR NOW WILL IGNORE ITS SOLUTION GIVEN
RECENT PERFORMANCES AND THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY. THE RESULT IS
MINIMAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
POP EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM BELOW
CLIMO TO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MVFR/TEMPO IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TODAY...AND MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. PCPN CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER
00Z...THOUGH SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE
COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 1 NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. COVERAGE WILL BE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT.

SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND THEN NE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS S
ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. THE NORTHERN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE
WIND SHIFT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE THE WIND SHIFT DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
EVE HOURS. A NE SURGE WILL ACTUALLY WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY EARLY AND THEN IN THE NE SURGE OVERNIGHT AND THU
MORNING...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND NEAR 15
KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
AND THEN REVERSE HIGHER OVERNIGHT. WILL CAP SEAS AT 5 FT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND 4 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WILL HEADLINE
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH NO HEADLINES FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. A HEADLINE MAY
AGAIN BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND STALLED FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL PRODUCE
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THU AND THU NIGHT. GRADIENT
STARTS TO WEAKEN LATE THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO A SOLID 15
KT BY FRI MORNING. FURTHER REDUCTION IN GRADIENT FRI WILL KEEP
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
EASTERLY FRI NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SETTLE SOUTH.
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS REMAINS OF STALLED FRONT LIFT INTO
THE AREA. AS A RESULT SPEEDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KT BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO STRONG NORTHEAST
FLOW SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO FRI. GRADUALLY REDUCTION IN WINDS LATE
THU NIGHT AND FRI ALLOWS SEAS TO FALL TO 2 TO 3 FT BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKLY BUILDING DOWN THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD WILL KEEP
WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 KT OR
LESS BUT COULD VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT ANY GIVEN
TIME...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE REMAINS OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. LIGHT WIND FIELD WILL
MAINTAIN 2 TO 3 FT SEAS WITH HIGHEST SEAS SAT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/RJD

000
FXUS62 KILM 190719
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
319 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO THE SOUTH LEAVING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH MAY MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIP INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES PRIOR
TO SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY SAG S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS WILL SERVE TO FURTHER SLOW ITS PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD. A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS LARGELY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR N
ATTEMPTS TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE N AND THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...LASTLY ACROSS
MYRTLE BEACH AND GEORGETOWN LATE DAY AND THIS EVE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL TOP 2 INCHES TODAY...TRENDING SLOWLY
LOWER DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY FROM N TO S. THE DRY AIR WILL
BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED INLAND TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE MUCH
TOUGHER TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT INROADS ALONG THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PEE DEE THROUGH LBT AND EYF.

THICK CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
AND SO NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...STORM MOTIONS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KT AND WITH SUCH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN. WILL INDICATE THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH POPS SLOWLY TRENDING
LOWER ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL CARRY POPS AS HIGH AS
LIKELY TO LOW-END CATEGORICAL TODAY. POPS WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST INTO THE EVE.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO END FROM NNW TO SSE DURING THE
EVE...WITH ONLY A SMALL RISK ALONG THE COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA...LOWER
TO MID 80S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BEGIN TO
LOWER ACROSS N/NW ZONES LATER TODAY AND MORE SO TONIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT COULD VARY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE
MAKING ITSELF FELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 60S ACROSS MANY INLAND AREAS WITH PERHAPS LOWER 70S HANGING
ON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST DURING
THE PERIOD WHILE COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST. FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH SLOWLY BUILDING 5H RIDGE HELPS DRY THE REGION OUT. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DROP PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1 INCH LATE THU AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS
LIKELY TO MANIFEST ITSELF AS A SCATTERED TO BROKEN FLAT STRATOCU
DECK IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES
NEAR THE COAST FROM ACTIVITY MOVING ON SHORE BUT DEEP DRY AIR
SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR ARRIVES THU NIGHT BUT IS SHORT LIVED AS
STALLED BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST FRI MORNING. LOWS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THU NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE DURING THE DAY
FRI AS THE BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE. BOUNDARY BECOMES SOMEWHAT
DIFFUSE AT THIS POINT BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OPENING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIR AND THE
WEAK SUBSIDENCE DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BUT FEEL
IT DOES WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC POP...MAINLY CONFINED TO COASTAL
COUNTIES. DESPITE CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW MORE SUN SHOULD LEAD
TO HIGHS A LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO. CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST WILL CREATE A LARGER SPREAD FOR LOWS FRI
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO ALONG
THE COAST TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS FOR THE DURATION OF THE
LONG TERM. THE DECENT AGREEMENT SEEN LAST NIGHT HAS EVAPORATED
LEAVING SEVERAL POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO PONDER. THESE RANGE FROM
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK TO VERY WET WITH
POSSIBLE FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. COMMON
THEME AMONG THEM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE
PATTERNS AND THE PRESENCE OF LINGER SURFACE BOUNDARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES HOLD.

THE KEY TO THE PERIOD WILL BE HOW DEFINED THE BOUNDARY REMAINS AND
HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS WHEN THE BOUNDARY COMES ONSHORE AND
THEN LIFTS NORTH. THE ECMWF IS CURRENTLY THE DRIEST AND ALSO THE
SOLUTION WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF QUESTIONS CONCERNING ITS VALIDITY.
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AFFECTED BY FEEDBACK WHICH MAY BE HELPING
MAINTAIN A STRONGER SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THE
CANADIAN DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE
CAROLINAS...DEPENDING ON THE RUN. THIS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT COMMON
FOR THE CANADIAN RECENTLY AS IT HAS BEEN TRYING TO TURN WEAK WAVES
ALONG STALLED COASTAL FRONTS INTO MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOWS
WITH LITTLE SUCCESS. FOR NOW WILL IGNORE ITS SOLUTION GIVEN
RECENT PERFORMANCES AND THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY. THE RESULT IS
MINIMAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
POP EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM BELOW
CLIMO TO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MVFR/TEMPO IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TODAY...AND MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. PCPN CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER
00Z...THOUGH SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE
COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND THEN NE AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS S ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. THE NORTHERN
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE WIND SHIFT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE THE WIND SHIFT
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS. A NE SURGE WILL ACTUALLY
WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY EARLY AND THEN IN THE
NE SURGE OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND NEAR 15 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN REVERSE HIGHER OVERNIGHT. WILL
CAP SEAS AT 5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 4 FT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING WITH NO HEADLINES FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. A HEADLINE MAY AGAIN BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND STALLED FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL PRODUCE
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THU AND THU NIGHT. GRADIENT
STARTS TO WEAKEN LATE THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO A SOLID 15
KT BY FRI MORNING. FURTHER REDUCTION IN GRADIENT FRI WILL KEEP
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
EASTERLY FRI NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SETTLE SOUTH.
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS REMAINS OF STALLED FRONT LIFT INTO
THE AREA. AS A RESULT SPEEDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KT BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO STRONG NORTHEAST
FLOW SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO FRI. GRADUALLY REDUCTION IN WINDS LATE
THU NIGHT AND FRI ALLOWS SEAS TO FALL TO 2 TO 3 FT BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKLY BUILDING DOWN THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD WILL KEEP
WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 KT OR
LESS BUT COULD VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT ANY GIVEN
TIME...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE REMAINS OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. LIGHT WIND FIELD WILL
MAINTAIN 2 TO 3 FT SEAS WITH HIGHEST SEAS SAT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/RJD

000
FXUS62 KILM 190546
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
147 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO THE SOUTH LEAVING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH MAY MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A GSO-HKY LINE
AT 21Z. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY
CLOSE TO THE SE NC COAST WITH LI TO -6. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS
THIS REGION WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN BRIEFLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE MARINE LAYER. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA AND STALLS ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FRONT ALIGNED RIGHT ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST WED MORNING. AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST THE
WINDS REMAIN SW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR FRONT TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVERGENCE WED AFTN AND THEREFORE EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WITH VALUES OVER 2 INCHES. A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE A VERY
DRY AND SUNNY DAY BUT WITH THE FRONT LINED UP ALONG THE
COAST...WILL KEEP PCP ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL CWA WITH HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE COAST. AS FOR TEMPS...A SLIGHT COOLING BEHIND FRONT AND
CLOUDS AND PCP ALONG FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MOST PART. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 83 RANGE CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND AROUND 85 FURTHER INLAND. TEMPS WED NIGHT SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65
AND 70.

BY THURS THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO ALLOW
FOR A DRY DAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CARRY IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE MOST
PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A WARMING TREND WITH MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WE OFFICIALLY ENTER CLIMATOLOGICAL
SUMMER...WITH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE OCCURRING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
HERE IN THE CAROLINAS. WHILE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE
BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND A BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH COMBINING TO
CREATE TEMPS NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL AND DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES...THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAIN.

WHILE AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARCH DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE MIGRATING TO A
BERMUDA-RIDGE POSITION...THIS WILL GENERALLY CREATE VERY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A COASTAL TROUGH
JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS TRYING TO ADVECT ONSHORE SATURDAY AS
SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY AROUND MIGRATING SURFACE HIGH. WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR...DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...WILL INCREASE POP
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...BUT KEEP CAPPED AT LOW-CHC.

AS ANY REMNANT COASTAL TROUGH ERODES LATE SATURDAY...BERMUDA RIDGING
BECOMES DOMINANT SUN-TUE WITH INCREASING TEMPS AND TYPICAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AT THE SAME
TIME...THIS WILL SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AND THUS WILL KEEP
POP ONLY AT SCHC/SILENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MVFR/TEMPO IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TODAY...AND MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. PCPN CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER
00Z...THOUGH SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE
COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...STRONG CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFF THE SE NC
COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN TSTM ACTIVITY FOR A FEW HOURS...THE CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.

TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SWLY WINDS
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT...WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER OUR NC WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT DOWN
SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NC
WATERS AND EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS FOR OUR SC WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP JUST OVER THE
WATERS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY WED. TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL STAY W-SW. OVERALL
EXPECT STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK
AS FRONT SLOWS ALONG COAST. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY
ON WED WITH A LIGHT OFF SHORE FLOW CLOSE TO THE COAST AND W TO
SW WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WED. THE LIGHTER OFF
SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO RELAX ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE...DOWN
TO 1 TO 2 FT. SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL DROP BELOW SCA BUT
WILL HOLD UP IN STRONGER SW TO W FLOW UP AROUND 3 TO 4 FT WITH
SOME 5 FTERS IN OUTERMOST WATERS MOST OF THE DAY.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO
THURS...A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO A SOLID 15KTS WILL
DEVELOP. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN MOST WATERS EXCEPT SOUTH
OF CAPE FEAR WHERE WATERS WILL BE BLOCKED FROM NORTHEAST FLOW
KEEPING THE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...GUSTY NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...DECAYING COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL
WAVER JUST OUTSIDE THE WATERS...THUS PINCHING THE GRADIENT AND
CREATING 15 KT NE WINDS FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT/TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY WORK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OFFSHORE TURNING THE PREDOMINANT
FLOW TO THE E/SE...WITH EASING SPEEDS...FALLING TO 10 KTS OR LESS.
SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FORMED THROUGH A COMBINATION OF A SE
GROUND SWELL AND A WIND CHOP...NE ON FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY SAT/SUN.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING TO 1-3 FT ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR/RJD

000
FXUS62 KILM 182334
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
734 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PREVAIL AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO THE SOUTH LEAVING A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WHICH MAY MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A GSO-HKY LINE
AT 21Z. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY
CLOSE TO THE SE NC COAST WITH LI TO -6. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS
THIS REGION WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN BRIEFLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE MARINE LAYER. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA AND STALLS ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FRONT ALIGNED RIGHT ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST WED MORNING. AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST THE
WINDS REMAIN SW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR FRONT TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVERGENCE WED AFTN AND THEREFORE EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WITH VALUES OVER 2 INCHES. A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE A VERY
DRY AND SUNNY DAY BUT WITH THE FRONT LINED UP ALONG THE
COAST...WILL KEEP PCP ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL CWA WITH HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE COAST. AS FOR TEMPS...A SLIGHT COOLING BEHIND FRONT AND
CLOUDS AND PCP ALONG FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MOST PART. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 83 RANGE CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND AROUND 85 FURTHER INLAND. TEMPS WED NIGHT SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65
AND 70.

BY THURS THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO ALLOW
FOR A DRY DAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CARRY IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE MOST
PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A WARMING TREND WITH MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WE OFFICIALLY ENTER CLIMATOLOGICAL
SUMMER...WITH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE OCCURRING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
HERE IN THE CAROLINAS. WHILE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE
BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND A BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH COMBINING TO
CREATE TEMPS NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL AND DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES...THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAIN.

WHILE AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARCH DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE MIGRATING TO A
BERMUDA-RIDGE POSITION...THIS WILL GENERALLY CREATE VERY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A COASTAL TROUGH
JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS TRYING TO ADVECT ONSHORE SATURDAY AS
SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY AROUND MIGRATING SURFACE HIGH. WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR...DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...WILL INCREASE POP
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...BUT KEEP CAPPED AT LOW-CHC.

AS ANY REMNANT COASTAL TROUGH ERODES LATE SATURDAY...BERMUDA RIDGING
BECOMES DOMINANT SUN-TUE WITH INCREASING TEMPS AND TYPICAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AT THE SAME
TIME...THIS WILL SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AND THUS WILL KEEP
POP ONLY AT SCHC/SILENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 00Z...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE PUSHING THRU THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING. TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KILM WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THESE STORMS PUSH
THROUGH. WILL HOLD ONTO VCSH AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA. THE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NW AT
KFLO/KLBT JUST AFTER 06Z...AND THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COASTAL
TERMS AROUND DAYBREAK. SOME MVFR/TEMPO IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AFTER
06Z...AND MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER THRU THE MORNING HOURS. MORE
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC FRONT/TROUGH
STALLS NEAR OUR COAST. BEST SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES WILL BE AT
KMYR/KCRE/KILM DURING THE DAY...WITH PERHAPS VCSH AT KFLO/KLBT. THE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY NEARBY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...STRONG CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFF THE SE NC
COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN TSTM ACTIVITY FOR A FEW HOURS...THE CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.

TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SWLY WINDS
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT...WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER OUR NC WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT DOWN
SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NC WATERS
...AND EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS FOR OUR SC WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP JUST OVER THE
WATERS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY WED. TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL STAY W-SW. OVERALL
EXPECT STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK
AS FRONT SLOWS ALONG COAST. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY
ON WED WITH A LIGHT OFF SHORE FLOW CLOSE TO THE COAST AND W TO
SW WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WED. THE LIGHTER OFF
SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO RELAX ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE...DOWN
TO 1 TO 2 FT. SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL DROP BELOW SCA BUT
WILL HOLD UP IN STRONGER SW TO W FLOW UP AROUND 3 TO 4 FT WITH
SOME 5 FTERS IN OUTERMOST WATERS MOST OF THE DAY.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO
THURS...A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO A SOLID 15KTS WILL
DEVELOP. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN MOST WATERS EXCEPT SOUTH
OF CAPE FEAR WHERE WATERS WILL BE BLOCKED FROM NORTHEAST FLOW
KEEPING THE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...GUSTY NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...DECAYING COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL
WAVER JUST OUTSIDE THE WATERS...THUS PINCHING THE GRADIENT AND
CREATING 15 KT NE WINDS FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT/TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY WORK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OFFSHORE TURNING THE PREDOMINANT
FLOW TO THE E/SE...WITH EASING SPEEDS...FALLING TO 10 KTS OR LESS.
SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FORMED THROUGH A COMBINATION OF A SE
GROUND SWELL AND A WIND CHOP...NE ON FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY SAT/SUN.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING TO 1-3 FT ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KILM 181906
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
306 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PREVAIL AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO THE SOUTH LEAVING A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WHICH MAY MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED SURFACE
HEATING AND ATTENDANT CONVECTION TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE OFF
WHILE MOVING QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE. ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOWED A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TODAY.
LAPSE RATES WERE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT A COUPLE OF MAJOR
TRIGGERS IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT COULD ACT TO
SPARK STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. SPC HAS AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK
CATEGORY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING FROM
DAMAGING WINDS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING JUICY COLUMN AND
POTENTIAL FOR WET-MICROBURSTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT
ALSO...ESPECIALLY UNDER TRAINING STORMS.

EXPECT SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER GEORGIA IS HEADED IN THIS
GENERAL DIRECTION AND COULD BRUSH OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES IF IT
HOLDS TOGETHER. THIS WILL BE ONE OF OUR PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN IN
THE VERY NEAR TERM.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
AND SHOULD BE JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. MODEL CONSENSUS HANGS IT UP
JUST ALONG THE COAST THOUGH...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH MINIMUMS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FRONT ALIGNED RIGHT ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST WED MORNING. AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST THE
WINDS REMAIN SW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR FRONT TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVERGENCE WED AFTN AND THEREFORE EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WITH VALUES OVER 2 INCHES. A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE A VERY
DRY AND SUNNY DAY BUT WITH THE FRONT LINED UP ALONG THE
COAST...WILL KEEP PCP ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL CWA WITH HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE COAST. AS FOR TEMPS...A SLIGHT COOLING BEHIND FRONT AND
CLOUDS AND PCP ALONG FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MOST PART. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 83 RANGE CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND AROUND 85 FURTHER INLAND. TEMPS WED NIGHT SHOULD BE BETWEEN 65
AND 70.

BY THURS THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO ALLOW
FOR A DRY DAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CARRY IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE MOST
PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A WARMING TREND WITH MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WE OFFICIALLY ENTER CLIMATOLOGICAL
SUMMER...WITH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE OCCURRING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
HERE IN THE CAROLINAS. WHILE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE
BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND A BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH COMBINING TO
CREATE TEMPS NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL AND DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES...THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAIN.

WHILE AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARCH DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE MIGRATING TO A
BERMUDA-RIDGE POSITION...THIS WILL GENERALLY CREATE VERY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A COASTAL TROUGH
JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS TRYING TO ADVECT ONSHORE SATURDAY AS
SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY AROUND MIGRATING SURFACE HIGH. WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR...DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...WILL INCREASE POP
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...BUT KEEP CAPPED AT LOW-CHC.

AS ANY REMNANT COASTAL TROUGH ERODES LATE SATURDAY...BERMUDA RIDGING
BECOMES DOMINANT SUN-TUE WITH INCREASING TEMPS AND TYPICAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AT THE SAME
TIME...THIS WILL SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AND THUS WILL KEEP
POP ONLY AT SCHC/SILENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
NEAR KILM EARLIER BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. SW-WSW FLOW THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS SUGGESTS THE THE SEA BREEZE WILL NOT PENETRATE TOO MUCH
FURTHER INLAND. MODELS SUGGESTS THE SIGNIFICANT LIFT NEAR KILM WILL
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED LIFT
OF CLOUD BASES THUS DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN LOW VFR CIGS. OTHER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
APPROACHING KFLO FROM THE WEST BUT CONVECTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
WILL INDICATE VCTS AT KFLO/KLBT 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR 00-02Z. VCTS SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS 01-02Z WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS 02-04Z.
PREDOMINATE MVFR/TEMPO IFR EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AT KFLO/KLBT SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...BUT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
AS SHOWER/TSTMS REDEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY WITH
MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SWLY WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A RESULT...WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUR NC WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT DOWN SOUTH. RAISING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR NC WATERS WITH THIS PACKAGE...AND EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENTS FOR OUR SC WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL LINE UP JUST OVER THE
WATERS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY WED. TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL STAY W-SW. OVERALL
EXPECT STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK
AS FRONT SLOWS ALONG COAST. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY
ON WED WITH A LIGHT OFF SHORE FLOW CLOSE TO THE COAST AND W TO
SW WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WED. THE LIGHTER OFF
SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO RELAX ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE...DOWN
TO 1 TO 2 FT. SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL DROP BELOW SCA BUT
WILL HOLD UP IN STRONGER SW TO W FLOW UP AROUND 3 TO 4 FT WITH
SOME 5 FTERS IN OUTERMOST WATERS MOST OF THE DAY.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO
THURS...A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO A SOLID 15KTS WILL
DEVELOP. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN MOST WATERS EXCEPT SOUTH
OF CAPE FEAR WHERE WATERS WILL BE BLOCKED FROM NORTHEAST FLOW
KEEPING THE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...GUSTY NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...DECAYING COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL
WAVER JUST OUTSIDE THE WATERS...THUS PINCHING THE GRADIENT AND
CREATING 15 KT NE WINDS FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT/TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY WORK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OFFSHORE TURNING THE PREDOMINANT
FLOW TO THE E/SE...WITH EASING SPEEDS...FALLING TO 10 KTS OR LESS.
SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FORMED THROUGH A COMBINATION OF A SE
GROUND SWELL AND A WIND CHOP...NE ON FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY SAT/SUN.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING TO 1-3 FT ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KILM 181750
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
150 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THEREAFTER...WITH A DRYING
TREND BEGINNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DRYING TREND WILL
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS AND A LOOK AT THE LATEST SYNOPTIC
SITUATION CONFIRMS EARLIER THINKING THAT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
STRONGEST CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS A VORTICITY MAX TRANSITS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE CURRENT ACTIVITY CLEARS THE
COAST...PLAN ON CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR LIKELY POPS
FROM ABOUT MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...FRONT IN THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE PUSHED FARTHER EAST BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
RIDGING DOWN THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD. GFS/WRF/ECMWF ALL SHOW
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON
BUT MORE LIKELY WED EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF MID LEVEL
STABLE LAYER AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING 5H TROUGH AXIS.
AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP UNDER 1.5
INCH BY EVENING LIMITING PRECIP COVERAGE TO EARLIER IN THE DAY.
STILL HOLDING ONTO CHC POP BUT FURTHER REDUCTION MAY BE REQUIRED.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WED INTO THU THE
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER MID LEVEL INVERSION COULD
TRANSLATE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WED AND EARLY THU.

LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EAST AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST THU INTO THU
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK 5H RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS HELPS
WEAKEN THE CAP WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS A BIG OBSTACLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POP THU
AFTERNOON BUT THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD END
ANY PRECIP THREAT SO WILL CARRY NO MENTIONABLE POP THU NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE ELONGATED HIGH MOVES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE MAINTAINS DEEP DRY
AIR OVER THE CAROLINAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS DROPPING
UNDER 1 INCH FRI MORNING AND REMAINING UNDER 1 INCH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON THINK
VERY LITTLE IF ANY CU WILL DEVELOP WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING QUITE
LIMITED. LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE ON
MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MORE TYPICAL BERMUDA LOCATION
AND MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONSOLIDATES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING OTHER THAN
A SILENT POP BUT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD
AS THE PERIOD ENDS. TEMPERATURES START OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO BUT STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
NEAR KILM EARLIER BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. SW-WSW FLOW THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS SUGGESTS THE THE SEA BREEZE WILL NOT PENETRATE TOO MUCH
FURTHER INLAND. MODELS SUGGESTS THE SIGNIFICANT LIFT NEAR KILM WILL
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED LIFT
OF CLOUD BASES THUS DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN LOW VFR CIGS. OTHER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
APPROACHING KFLO FROM THE WEST BUT CONVECTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
WILL INDICATE VCTS AT KFLO/KLBT 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR 00-02Z. VCTS SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS 01-02Z WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS 02-04Z.
PREDOMINATE MVFR/TEMPO IFR EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AT KFLO/KLBT SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...BUT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
AS SHOWER/TSTMS REDEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY WITH
MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
FOLLOWS:

EXPECT S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT TODAY TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KT TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY LATE AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
WATERS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT EARLY TODAY WILL PEAK IN THE 3 TO 5 FT
RANGE THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAY BREAK.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS DURING
WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THEN NORTH. AS A RESULT LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WED NIGHT INTO THU.
GRADIENT INCREASES THU AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH...PUSHING
NORTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH TO 15 KT LATER THU AND THU NIGHT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KNOCK SEAS FROM 3 TO 5 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO
2 TO 3 FT BY THU MORNING. INCREASE IN NORTHEAST FLOW THU AND THU
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL INCREASE IN SEAS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD...3 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF GRADIENT
WILL KEEP SPEEDS UNDER 15 KT AND ALLOW FOR DAILY SEA BREEZE WITH
MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE. SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK

000
FXUS62 KILM 181629
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1229 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THEREAFTER...WITH A DRYING
TREND BEGINNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DRYING TREND WILL
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS AND A LOOK AT THE LATEST SYNOPTIC
SITUATION CONFIRMS EARLIER THINKING THAT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
STRONGEST CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS A VORTICITY MAX TRANSITS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE CURRENT ACTIVITY CLEARS THE
COAST...PLAN ON CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR LIKELY POPS
FROM ABOUT MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...FRONT IN THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE PUSHED FARTHER EAST BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
RIDGING DOWN THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD. GFS/WRF/ECMWF ALL SHOW
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON
BUT MORE LIKELY WED EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF MID LEVEL
STABLE LAYER AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING 5H TROUGH AXIS.
AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP UNDER 1.5
INCH BY EVENING LIMITING PRECIP COVERAGE TO EARLIER IN THE DAY.
STILL HOLDING ONTO CHC POP BUT FURTHER REDUCTION MAY BE REQUIRED.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WED INTO THU THE
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER MID LEVEL INVERSION COULD
TRANSLATE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WED AND EARLY THU.

LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EAST AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST THU INTO THU
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK 5H RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS HELPS
WEAKEN THE CAP WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS A BIG OBSTACLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POP THU
AFTERNOON BUT THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD END
ANY PRECIP THREAT SO WILL CARRY NO MENTIONABLE POP THU NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE ELONGATED HIGH MOVES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE MAINTAINS DEEP DRY
AIR OVER THE CAROLINAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS DROPPING
UNDER 1 INCH FRI MORNING AND REMAINING UNDER 1 INCH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON THINK
VERY LITTLE IF ANY CU WILL DEVELOP WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING QUITE
LIMITED. LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE ON
MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MORE TYPICAL BERMUDA LOCATION
AND MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONSOLIDATES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING OTHER THAN
A SILENT POP BUT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD
AS THE PERIOD ENDS. TEMPERATURES START OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO BUT STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AN UPPER IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NE PRODUCING
ISOLATED PATCHES OF -RA WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
OFFSHORE. THE COASTAL TERMINALS ARE VFR WHILE BR/STRATUS IS
AFFECTING THE KLBT/KFLO TERMINALS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND LIFR/IFR
STRATUS. WITH 15-20 KNOT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE REDUCED VSBYS AT KFLO/KLBT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
13Z. DUE TO FAIRLY THICK BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIFR/IFR
CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH 14Z. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS BY
18Z.

WITH PASSAGE OF THIS MORNINGS IMPULSE EXPECT A LULL IN CONVECTION.
SW-WSW FLOW THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SUGGESTS THE THE SEA BREEZE WILL
NOT PENETRATE TOO FAR INLAND. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP BOTH INLAND AND ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AS LIFT RECOVERS AND INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM THAT ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
PREDOMINATE MVFR/TEMPO IFR EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY WITH
MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
FOLLOWS:

EXPECT S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT TODAY TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KT TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY LATE AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
WATERS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT EARLY TODAY WILL PEAK IN THE 3 TO 5 FT
RANGE THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAY BREAK.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS DURING
WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THEN NORTH. AS A RESULT LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WED NIGHT INTO THU.
GRADIENT INCREASES THU AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH...PUSHING
NORTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH TO 15 KT LATER THU AND THU NIGHT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KNOCK SEAS FROM 3 TO 5 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO
2 TO 3 FT BY THU MORNING. INCREASE IN NORTHEAST FLOW THU AND THU
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL INCREASE IN SEAS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD...3 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF GRADIENT
WILL KEEP SPEEDS UNDER 15 KT AND ALLOW FOR DAILY SEA BREEZE WITH
MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE. SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
MARINE...REK

000
FXUS62 KILM 181415
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1015 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THEREAFTER...WITH A DRYING
TREND BEGINNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DRYING TREND WILL
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 AM TUESDAY...ALL QUIET OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS AND A LOOK AT THE
LATEST SYNOPTIC SITUATION CONFIRMS EARLIER THINKING THAT
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGEST CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A VORTICITY MAX TRANSITS THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE CURRENT ACTIVITY CLEARS THE
COAST...PLAN ON CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR LIKELY POPS
FROM ABOUT MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...FRONT IN THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE PUSHED FARTHER EAST BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
RIDGING DOWN THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD. GFS/WRF/ECMWF ALL SHOW
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON
BUT MORE LIKELY WED EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF MID LEVEL
STABLE LAYER AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING 5H TROUGH AXIS.
AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP UNDER 1.5
INCH BY EVENING LIMITING PRECIP COVERAGE TO EARLIER IN THE DAY.
STILL HOLDING ONTO CHC POP BUT FURTHER REDUCTION MAY BE REQUIRED.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WED INTO THU THE
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER MID LEVEL INVERSION COULD
TRANSLATE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WED AND EARLY THU.

LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EAST AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST THU INTO THU
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK 5H RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS HELPS
WEAKEN THE CAP WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS A BIG OBSTACLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POP THU
AFTERNOON BUT THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD END
ANY PRECIP THREAT SO WILL CARRY NO MENTIONABLE POP THU NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE ELONGATED HIGH MOVES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE MAINTAINS DEEP DRY
AIR OVER THE CAROLINAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS DROPPING
UNDER 1 INCH FRI MORNING AND REMAINING UNDER 1 INCH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON THINK
VERY LITTLE IF ANY CU WILL DEVELOP WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING QUITE
LIMITED. LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE ON
MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MORE TYPICAL BERMUDA LOCATION
AND MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONSOLIDATES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING OTHER THAN
A SILENT POP BUT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD
AS THE PERIOD ENDS. TEMPERATURES START OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO BUT STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AN UPPER IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NE PRODUCING
ISOLATED PATCHES OF -RA WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
OFFSHORE. THE COASTAL TERMINALS ARE VFR WHILE BR/STRATUS IS
AFFECTING THE KLBT/KFLO TERMINALS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND LIFR/IFR
STRATUS. WITH 15-20 KNOT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE REDUCED VSBYS AT KFLO/KLBT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
13Z. DUE TO FAIRLY THICK BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIFR/IFR
CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH 14Z. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS BY
18Z.

WITH PASSAGE OF THIS MORNINGS IMPULSE EXPECT A LULL IN CONVECTION.
SW-WSW FLOW THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SUGGESTS THE THE SEA BREEZE WILL
NOT PENETRATE TOO FAR INLAND. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP BOTH INLAND AND ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AS LIFT RECOVERS AND INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM THAT ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
PREDOMINATE MVFR/TEMPO IFR EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY WITH
MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
FOLLOWS:

EXPECT S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT TODAY TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KT TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY LATE AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
WATERS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT EARLY TODAY WILL PEAK IN THE 3 TO 5 FT
RANGE THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAY BREAK.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS DURING
WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THEN NORTH. AS A RESULT LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WED NIGHT INTO THU.
GRADIENT INCREASES THU AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH...PUSHING
NORTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH TO 15 KT LATER THU AND THU NIGHT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KNOCK SEAS FROM 3 TO 5 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO
2 TO 3 FT BY THU MORNING. INCREASE IN NORTHEAST FLOW THU AND THU
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL INCREASE IN SEAS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD...3 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF GRADIENT
WILL KEEP SPEEDS UNDER 15 KT AND ALLOW FOR DAILY SEA BREEZE WITH
MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE. SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...REK/RAN
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/III/RAN

000
FXUS62 KILM 181146
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
746 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A DRYING TREND THE WILL BEGIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT EXPECT TO
SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE CURRENT ACTIVITY CLEARS
THE COAST...PLAN ON CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR LIKELY
POPS FROM ABOUT MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...FRONT IN THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE PUSHED FARTHER EAST BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
RIDGING DOWN THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD. GFS/WRF/ECMWF ALL SHOW
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON
BUT MORE LIKELY WED EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF MID LEVEL
STABLE LAYER AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING 5H TROUGH AXIS.
AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP UNDER 1.5
INCH BY EVENING LIMITING PRECIP COVERAGE TO EARLIER IN THE DAY.
STILL HOLDING ONTO CHC POP BUT FURTHER REDUCTION MAY BE REQUIRED.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WED INTO THU THE
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER MID LEVEL INVERSION COULD
TRANSLATE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WED AND EARLY THU.

LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EAST AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST THU INTO THU
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK 5H RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS HELPS
WEAKEN THE CAP WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS A BIG OBSTACLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POP THU
AFTERNOON BUT THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD END
ANY PRECIP THREAT SO WILL CARRY NO MENTIONABLE POP THU NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE ELONGATED HIGH MOVES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE MAINTAINS DEEP DRY
AIR OVER THE CAROLINAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS DROPPING
UNDER 1 INCH FRI MORNING AND REMAINING UNDER 1 INCH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON THINK
VERY LITTLE IF ANY CU WILL DEVELOP WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING QUITE
LIMITED. LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE ON
MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MORE TYPICAL BERMUDA LOCATION
AND MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONSOLIDATES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING OTHER THAN
A SILENT POP BUT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD
AS THE PERIOD ENDS. TEMPERATURES START OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO BUT STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AN UPPER IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NE PRODUCING
ISOLATED PATCHES OF -RA WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
OFFSHORE. THE COASTAL TERMINALS ARE VFR WHILE BR/STRATUS IS
AFFECTING THE KLBT/KFLO TERMINALS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND LIFR/IFR
STRATUS. WITH 15-20 KNOT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE REDUCED VSBYS AT KFLO/KLBT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
13Z. DUE TO FAIRLY THICK BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIFR/IFR
CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH 14Z. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS BY
18Z.

WITH PASSAGE OF THIS MORNINGS IMPULSE EXPECT A LULL IN CONVECTION.
SW-WSW FLOW THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SUGGESTS THE THE SEA BREEZE WILL
NOT PENETRATE TOO FAR INLAND. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP BOTH INLAND AND ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AS LIFT RECOVERS AND INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM THAT ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
PREDOMINATE MVFR/TEMPO IFR EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY WITH
MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT TODAY TO
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY LATE AS
THE FRONT NEARS THE WATERS.  SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT EARLY TODAY WILL PEAK
IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD
DAY BREAK.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS DURING
WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THEN NORTH. AS A RESULT LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WED NIGHT INTO THU.
GRADIENT INCREASES THU AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH...PUSHING
NORTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH TO 15 KT LATER THU AND THU NIGHT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KNOCK SEAS FROM 3 TO 5 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO
2 TO 3 FT BY THU MORNING. INCREASE IN NORTHEAST FLOW THU AND THU
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL INCREASE IN SEAS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD...3 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF GRADIENT
WILL KEEP SPEEDS UNDER 15 KT AND ALLOW FOR DAILY SEA BREEZE WITH
MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE. SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAN
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KILM 180704
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A DRYING TREND THE WILL BEGIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT EXPECT TO
SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE CURRENT ACTIVITY CLEARS
THE COAST...PLAN ON CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR LIKELY
POPS FROM ABOUT MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...FRONT IN THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE PUSHED FARTHER EAST BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
RIDGING DOWN THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD. GFS/WRF/ECMWF ALL SHOW
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON
BUT MORE LIKELY WED EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF MID LEVEL
STABLE LAYER AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND EXITING 5H TROUGH AXIS.
AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP UNDER 1.5
INCH BY EVENING LIMITING PRECIP COVERAGE TO EARLIER IN THE DAY.
STILL HOLDING ONTO CHC POP BUT FURTHER REDUCTION MAY BE REQUIRED.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WED INTO THU THE
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER MID LEVEL INVERSION COULD
TRANSLATE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WED AND EARLY THU.

LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EAST AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST THU INTO THU
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK 5H RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS HELPS
WEAKEN THE CAP WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS A BIG OBSTACLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POP THU
AFTERNOON BUT THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD END
ANY PRECIP THREAT SO WILL CARRY NO MENTIONABLE POP THU NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE ELONGATED HIGH MOVES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE MAINTAINS DEEP DRY
AIR OVER THE CAROLINAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS DROPPING
UNDER 1 INCH FRI MORNING AND REMAINING UNDER 1 INCH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON THINK
VERY LITTLE IF ANY CU WILL DEVELOP WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING QUITE
LIMITED. LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE ON
MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MORE TYPICAL BERMUDA LOCATION
AND MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONSOLIDATES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING OTHER THAN
A SILENT POP BUT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD
AS THE PERIOD ENDS. TEMPERATURES START OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO BUT STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PCPN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA HAS DIMINISHED TONIGHT
THOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  THEY ARE MOST PROBABLE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE HOURS.  THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
THIS EVENING OVER THE INLAND TERMS HAVE SATURATED THE SFC LAYER...
AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS APPEAR LIKELY AT KFLO AND KLBT. NEAR
SFC WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG...BUT TEMPO MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE DAWN. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS/T-STORMS TODAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE CAROLINAS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST AND THEN SPREAD INLAND. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMS AFTER 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS OUR CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT TODAY TO
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY LATE AS
THE FRONT NEARS THE WATERS.  SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT EARLY TODAY WILL PEAK
IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD
DAY BREAK.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS DURING
WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THEN NORTH. AS A RESULT LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WED NIGHT INTO THU.
GRADIENT INCREASES THU AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH...PUSHING
NORTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH TO 15 KT LATER THU AND THU NIGHT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KNOCK SEAS FROM 3 TO 5 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO
2 TO 3 FT BY THU MORNING. INCREASE IN NORTHEAST FLOW THU AND THU
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL INCREASE IN SEAS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD...3 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF GRADIENT
WILL KEEP SPEEDS UNDER 15 KT AND ALLOW FOR DAILY SEA BREEZE WITH
MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE. SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/31

000
FXUS62 KILM 180549
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
149 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A DRYING TREND THE WILL BEGIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE CWA.  HAVE CONTINUED CHC TO LIKELY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY THOUGH THUNDER POTENTIAL
IS DECREASING WITH TIME AS NOTED IN LIGHTNING DATA.  TEMPERATURE
TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
THE MAIN STEERING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL PEAK ABOVE
2 INCHES AT TIMES SO THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE
WILL BE HARD TO TIME IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AS WELL
AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUPPORTING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. THUS ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE WITH NO SEVERE TSTMS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA COULD AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW CLIMO EACH DAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER HOLDING
TEMPS BACK A BIT. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM A
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST DIRECTION LEADING UP TO ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY FARTHER SOUTH. THIS HIGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST ON THURS WILL MOVE EAST SHIFTING OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND FURTHER OFF SHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM NORTHEAST ON THURS TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE WIND
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SOME LINGERING MOISTURE FROM OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS BACK NORTH AND THEREFORE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT IT WILL HAVE ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO AND THEREFORE MAY
KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN FORECAST OVER COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD
UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO
LESS THAN AN INCH BY FRI AS THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN VERY DRY AIR TO
THE NORTH AND MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH WHERE BOUNDARY REMAINS. PCP
WATER VALUES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
CAROLINAS WILL BE CLOSER TO 1.9 INCHES. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THIS
MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO OUR LOCAL CWA MAINLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHC OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH
THE FORECAST REMAIN FAIRLY DRY FOR THE MOST PART...THE MOISTURE
PROFILES DO SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA FILTERING OUT THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850 TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
RIGHT AROUND 15 C WITH A SLIGHT SPIKE UP ON SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS
AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY AFFECT THE TEMPS AT TIMES BUT
OVERALL EXPECT MAX TEMPS EACH DAY REACHING THE MID 80S AND CLOSER TO
90 INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S MOST NIGHTS AND AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PCPN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA HAS DIMINISHED TONIGHT
THOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  THEY ARE MOST PROBABLE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE HOURS.  THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
THIS EVENING OVER THE INLAND TERMS HAVE SATURATED THE SFC LAYER...
AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS APPEAR LIKELY AT KFLO AND KLBT. NEAR
SFC WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG...BUT TEMPO MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE DAWN. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS/T-STORMS TODAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE CAROLINAS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST AND THEN SPREAD INLAND. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMS AFTER 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS OUR CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...WINDS ARE INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS VIA BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THIS WAS EXPECTED AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AT 952MB. A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD COVER THE FORECAST
WELL NOTING THAT SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE HIGHER RANGE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 3-4 FEET SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON TAP TO PASS ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT THUS NO PLAN TO RAISE AN ADVISORY
THIS EARLY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
FIGHT TO KEEP A FRONT TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT STIFF NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND FRONT ON THURS TO WEAKEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER BERMUDA. WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 4 TO 5
FT IN OUTER WATERS THURS IN NE WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KTS. NEAR SHORE
SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL BE BLOCKED FROM NORTHEAST WINDS AND
WILL BE LOWER...CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 FT. AS WINDS VEER AROUND AND
LIGHTEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FT
MOST WATERS AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS LIGHT
WINDS 10 KTS OR SO CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/31

000
FXUS62 KILM 180232
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1035 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM MONDAY...THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING ACROSS THE CWA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS STILL IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS LATE HOUR AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN. WILL ADDRESS
THESE AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN
TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING ACROSS GEORGIA AND ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY IS NOT IN
OUR FAVOR...REDEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE 2000
UTC RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE COVERAGE AND IT
REDEVELOPS SPORADIC ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK GOOD.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
THE MAIN STEERING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL PEAK ABOVE
2 INCHES AT TIMES SO THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE
WILL BE HARD TO TIME IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AS WELL
AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUPPORTING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. THUS ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE WITH NO SEVERE TSTMS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA COULD AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW CLIMO EACH DAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER HOLDING
TEMPS BACK A BIT. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM A
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST DIRECTION LEADING UP TO ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY FARTHER SOUTH. THIS HIGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST ON THURS WILL MOVE EAST SHIFTING OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND FURTHER OFF SHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM NORTHEAST ON THURS TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE WIND
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SOME LINGERING MOISTURE FROM OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS BACK NORTH AND THEREFORE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT IT WILL HAVE ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO AND THEREFORE MAY
KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN FORECAST OVER COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD
UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO
LESS THAN AN INCH BY FRI AS THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN VERY DRY AIR TO
THE NORTH AND MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH WHERE BOUNDARY REMAINS. PCP
WATER VALUES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
CAROLINAS WILL BE CLOSER TO 1.9 INCHES. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THIS
MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO OUR LOCAL CWA MAINLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHC OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH
THE FORECAST REMAIN FAIRLY DRY FOR THE MOST PART...THE MOISTURE
PROFILES DO SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA FILTERING OUT THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850 TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
RIGHT AROUND 15 C WITH A SLIGHT SPIKE UP ON SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS
AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY AFFECT THE TEMPS AT TIMES BUT
OVERALL EXPECT MAX TEMPS EACH DAY REACHING THE MID 80S AND CLOSER TO
90 INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S MOST NIGHTS AND AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS/T-STORMS FIRING
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. KFLO/KLBT WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS STORMS PUSH
THROUGH. SHOWERS MAY REACH KMYR/KCRE LATER THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING WORSE THAN TEMPO MVFR ATTM.

PCPN CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. MVFR/IFR FOG APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT WHERE PCPN IS SATURATING THE NEAR
SFC LAYER. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD INHIBIT
FOG...BUT TEMPO MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. MORE
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES. SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WILL SHIFT INLAND LATER IN
THE DAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KTS
DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM MONDAY...WINDS ARE INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS VIA BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THIS WAS EXPECTED AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AT 952MB. A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD COVER THE FORECAST
WELL NOTING THAT SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE HIGHER RANGE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 3-4 FEET SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON TAP TO PASS ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT THUS NO PLAN TO RAISE AN ADVISORY
THIS EARLY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
FIGHT TO KEEP A FRONT TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT STIFF NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND FRONT ON THURS TO WEAKEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER BERMUDA. WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 4 TO 5
FT IN OUTER WATERS THURS IN NE WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KTS. NEAR SHORE
SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL BE BLOCKED FROM NORTHEAST WINDS AND
WILL BE LOWER...CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 FT. AS WINDS VEER AROUND AND
LIGHTEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FT
MOST WATERS AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS LIGHT
WINDS 10 KTS OR SO CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KILM 172341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
741 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING IS WORKING EFFICIENTLY
WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
THE CWA. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS HOW FAR THE
STORMS MOVE EAST BEFORE DISSIPATING. 1800 UTC GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE
PROGRESS THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO LIKELY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
THE MAIN STEERING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL PEAK ABOVE
2 INCHES AT TIMES SO THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE
WILL BE HARD TO TIME IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AS WELL
AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUPPORTING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. THUS ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE WITH NO SEVERE TSTMS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA COULD AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW CLIMO EACH DAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER HOLDING
TEMPS BACK A BIT. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM A
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST DIRECTION LEADING UP TO ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY FARTHER SOUTH. THIS HIGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST ON THURS WILL MOVE EAST SHIFTING OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND FURTHER OFF SHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM NORTHEAST ON THURS TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE WIND
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SOME LINGERING MOISTURE FROM OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS BACK NORTH AND THEREFORE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT IT WILL HAVE ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO AND THEREFORE MAY
KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN FORECAST OVER COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD
UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO
LESS THAN AN INCH BY FRI AS THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN VERY DRY AIR TO
THE NORTH AND MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH WHERE BOUNDARY REMAINS. PCP
WATER VALUES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
CAROLINAS WILL BE CLOSER TO 1.9 INCHES. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THIS
MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO OUR LOCAL CWA MAINLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHC OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH
THE FORECAST REMAIN FAIRLY DRY FOR THE MOST PART...THE MOISTURE
PROFILES DO SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA FILTERING OUT THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850 TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
RIGHT AROUND 15 C WITH A SLIGHT SPIKE UP ON SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS
AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY AFFECT THE TEMPS AT TIMES BUT
OVERALL EXPECT MAX TEMPS EACH DAY REACHING THE MID 80S AND CLOSER TO
90 INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S MOST NIGHTS AND AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS/T-STORMS FIRING
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. KFLO/KLBT WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS STORMS PUSH
THROUGH. SHOWERS MAY REACH KMYR/KCRE LATER THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING WORSE THAN TEMPO MVFR ATTM.

PCPN CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. MVFR/IFR FOG APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT WHERE PCPN IS SATURATING THE NEAR
SFC LAYER. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD INHIBIT
FOG...BUT TEMPO MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. MORE
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES. SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WILL SHIFT INLAND LATER IN
THE DAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KTS
DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS OR SEAS
FORECAST THIS EVENING. I DID WALK BACK POPS SLIGHTLY AS HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL FIELDS SHOW THE CONVECTION ALL
BUT DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON TAP TO PASS ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT THUS NO PLAN TO RAISE AN ADVISORY
THIS EARLY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
FIGHT TO KEEP A FRONT TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT STIFF NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND FRONT ON THURS TO WEAKEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER BERMUDA. WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 4 TO 5
FT IN OUTER WATERS THURS IN NE WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KTS. NEAR SHORE
SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL BE BLOCKED FROM NORTHEAST WINDS AND
WILL BE LOWER...CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 FT. AS WINDS VEER AROUND AND
LIGHTEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FT
MOST WATERS AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS LIGHT
WINDS 10 KTS OR SO CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KILM 172337
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
737 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING IS WORKING EFFICIENTLY
WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
THE CWA. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS HOW FAR THE
STORMS MOVE EAST BEFORE DISSIPATING. 1800 UTC GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE
PROGRESS THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO LIKELY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
THE MAIN STEERING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL PEAK ABOVE
2 INCHES AT TIMES SO THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE
WILL BE HARD TO TIME IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AS WELL
AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUPPORTING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. THUS ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE WITH NO SEVERE TSTMS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA COULD AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW CLIMO EACH DAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER HOLDING
TEMPS BACK A BIT. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM A
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST DIRECTION LEADING UP TO ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY FARTHER SOUTH. THIS HIGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST ON THURS WILL MOVE EAST SHIFTING OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND FURTHER OFF SHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM NORTHEAST ON THURS TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE WIND
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SOME LINGERING MOISTURE FROM OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS BACK NORTH AND THEREFORE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT IT WILL HAVE ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO AND THEREFORE MAY
KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN FORECAST OVER COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD
UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO
LESS THAN AN INCH BY FRI AS THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN VERY DRY AIR TO
THE NORTH AND MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH WHERE BOUNDARY REMAINS. PCP
WATER VALUES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
CAROLINAS WILL BE CLOSER TO 1.9 INCHES. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THIS
MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO OUR LOCAL CWA MAINLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHC OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH
THE FORECAST REMAIN FAIRLY DRY FOR THE MOST PART...THE MOISTURE
PROFILES DO SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA FILTERING OUT THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850 TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
RIGHT AROUND 15 C WITH A SLIGHT SPIKE UP ON SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS
AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY AFFECT THE TEMPS AT TIMES BUT
OVERALL EXPECT MAX TEMPS EACH DAY REACHING THE MID 80S AND CLOSER TO
90 INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S MOST NIGHTS AND AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...AN UPPER IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE KFLO
TERMINAL AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE KLBT TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY MID
AFTERNOON. VCSH IS MOST LIKELY WITH THE CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LOW.

A STRONGER IMPULSE WITH APPROACH THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER SHOWERS/TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH
THIS FEATURE. PREDOMINATE VFR SHOULD CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR TEMPO
MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

SHOULD THEN BE A LULL IN CONVECTION AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS MAINLY AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MIDNIGHT REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS CONTINUING
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS OR SEAS
FORECAST THIS EVENING. I DID WALK BACK POPS SLIGHTLY AS HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL FIELDS SHOW THE CONVECTION ALL
BUT DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON TAP TO PASS ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT THUS NO PLAN TO RAISE AN ADVISORY
THIS EARLY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
FIGHT TO KEEP A FRONT TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT STIFF NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND FRONT ON THURS TO WEAKEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER BERMUDA. WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 4 TO 5
FT IN OUTER WATERS THURS IN NE WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KTS. NEAR SHORE
SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL BE BLOCKED FROM NORTHEAST WINDS AND
WILL BE LOWER...CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 FT. AS WINDS VEER AROUND AND
LIGHTEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FT
MOST WATERS AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS LIGHT
WINDS 10 KTS OR SO CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KILM 171921
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
321 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT CLOSE TO THE COAST. NO THUNDER YET...BUT ANTICIPATE
ISOLATED CB ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NW.
FRONT WILL NOT BE A PLAYER IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT A PERSISTENT
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE ANOTHER
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL SPARK CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA SHOWS A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH P/W VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...SO EXPECT
PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO FORM AS DISTURBANCES AND
BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AN INVERSION UP AROUND 750MB HAS
KEPT A LID ON ANY STRONG CONVECTION...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS
INVERSION WILL ERODE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SEVERE CONVECTION THOUGH.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND MODEST WARM SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID 70S
AT THE COAST FOR MINIMUMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
THE MAIN STEERING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL PEAK ABOVE
2 INCHES AT TIMES SO THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE
WILL BE HARD TO TIME IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AS WELL
AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUPPORTING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. THUS ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE WITH NO SEVERE TSTMS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA COULD AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW CLIMO EACH DAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER HOLDING
TEMPS BACK A BIT. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNEDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM A
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST DIRECTION LEADING UP TO ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY FARTHER SOUTH. THIS HIGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST ON THURS WILL MOVE EAST SHIFTING OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND FURTHER OFF SHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM NORTHEAST ON THURS TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE WIND
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SOME LINGERING MOISTURE FROM OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS BACK NORTH AND THEREFORE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT IT WILL HAVE ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO AND THEREFORE MAY
KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN FORECAST OVER COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD
UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO
LESS THAN AN INCH BY FRI AS THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN VERY DRY AIR TO
THE NORTH AND MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH WHERE BOUNDARY REMAINS. PCP
WATER VALUES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
CAROLINAS WILL BE CLOSER TO 1.9 INCHES. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THIS
MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO OUR LOCAL CWA MAINLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHC OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH
THE FORECAST REMAIN FAIRLY DRY FOR THE MOST PART...THE MOISTURE
PROFILES DO SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA FILTERING OUT THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850 TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
RIGHT AROUND 15 C WITH A SLIGHT SPIKE UP ON SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS
AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY AFFECT THE TEMPS AT TIMES BUT
OVERALL EXPECT MAX TEMPS EACH DAY REACHING THE MID 80S AND CLOSER TO
90 INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S MOST NIGHTS AND AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...AN UPPER IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE KFLO
TERMINAL AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE KLBT TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY MID
AFTERNOON. VCSH IS MOST LIKELY WITH THE CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LOW.

A STRONGER IMPULSE WITH APPROACH THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER SHOWERS/TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH
THIS FEATURE. PREDOMINATE VFR SHOULD CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR TEMPO
MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

SHOULD THEN BE A LULL IN CONVECTION AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS MAINLY AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MIDNIGHT REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS CONTINUING
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...A STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EXPECT NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PRESENT CONDITIONS...WITH WINDS IN THE
15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON TAP TO PASS ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT THUS NO PLAN TO RAISE AN ADVISORY
THIS EARLY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
FIGHT TO KEEP A FRONT TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT STIFF NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND FRONT ON THURS TO WEAKEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER BERMUDA. WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 4 TO 5
FT IN OUTER WATERS THURS IN NE WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KTS. NEAR SHORE
SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL BE BLOCKED FROM NORTHEAST WINDS AND
WILL BE LOWER...CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 FT. AS WINDS VEER AROUND AND
LIGHTEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FT
MOST WATERS AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS LIGHT
WINDS 10 KTS OR SO CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR/REK

000
FXUS62 KILM 171719
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A DRYING TREND DEVELOPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:20 PM MONDAY...FIRST SHOWERS OF THE DAY POPPING UP OVER
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS A STRIP OF CU OF VARYING VERTICAL EXTENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT FORMS OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE INITIAL FOCI FOR FURTHER
CONVECTION TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM BECOMING MORE
COMMON AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING FOLLOWS BELOW:

A DECENT SHOT AT RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS COLUMN
MOISTURE TAKES ON A MARKED BUMP UPWARD TO AROUND 1.85 INCHES INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VAPOR ANIMATIONS CERTAINLY CONFIRM THIS
LIKELIHOOD WITH ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION PRESENTLY FIRING OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CYCLE INTO A WANING PHASE IN CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS ONLY TO RE-FIRE IN AFTERNOON HEATING CLOSER TO OUR
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY WITH FANNING OUTFLOWS MEANDERING ON
THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS TO THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS
MORNING. SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS POINT TO
ACTIVE SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION...WHICH IS FEASIBLE GIVEN THE UPTICK
TREND IN PWAT VALUES. OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH THE SURFACE
HEATING WILL BE RETARDED BY HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
LATER TODAY...BUT BELIEVE WITH SUCH ABUNDANT COLUMN H20
AVAILABLE...ANY LOW-LEVEL TRIGGERS OUGHT TO BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIP
OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TODAY...ONLY TO BE PERPETUATED BY
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS.

MAXIMUMS WILL BE HINDERED A BIT BY THE ENCROACHING CLOUDS AND IN
GENERAL AM EXPECTING MIDDLE 80S MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT
HOURS AND MINIMUMS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 70 OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND BALMY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A WET SCENARIO IS STILL ON TAP DURING THE
SHORT TERM AS A WESTERLY MOISTURE LADEN MID LEVEL FLOW KEEPS
THINGS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. I
HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS THE LINGERING OF THE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY
AND I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME. THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE FEATURES
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE RATHER TEPID WITH THE
LETHARGIC NATURE OF THE SHEAR. THE MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHER WHEN COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCE
IS NOT QUITE AS DRAMATIC AS PREVIOUS CYCLES WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE. I HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MAV NUMBERS ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...INDICATIONS ARE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. WPC IS
PREFERRING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION AND GFS MEAN. AT
THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL STILL BE WORTH WATCHING TO THE SOUTH
EARLY ON BUT LATER IN THE PERIOD THIS FEATURE BASICALLY
DISSIPATES. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS INITIALLY
TRENDING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATE. ONCE AGAIN NO REAL STORYLINE
REGARDING TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...AN UPPER IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE KFLO
TERMINAL AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE KLBT TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY MID
AFTERNOON. VCSH IS MOST LIKELY WITH THE CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LOW.

A STRONGER IMPULSE WITH APPROACH THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER SHOWERS/TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH
THIS FEATURE. PREDOMINATE VFR SHOULD CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR TEMPO
MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

SHOULD THEN BE A LULL IN CONVECTION AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS MAINLY AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MIDNIGHT REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS CONTINUING
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:20 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. LATEST OBS
SHOW SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH A LIGHT SWLY WIND IN THE 10
KT RANGE. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW:

3-4 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED A
MODERATE SW WIND FIELD ACROSS THE 0-20NM WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED OF SSW WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 5 SECONDS OR SO...MIXED WITH
SE WAVES OF 1-2 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FAVORED
MORE-SO TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY
IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. STILL DON/T EXPECT ANY OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DISTORT THE SYNOPTIC FLOW APPRECIABLY AND
SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KNOTS TUESDAY INCREASING TO THE LOWER
END OF A 15-20 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF SWAN GIVES
SEAS OF 2-3 FEET TUESDAY INCREASING TO POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA ALBEIT BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY. MORE LIKELY IS A SCEC HEADLINE
FOR 3-5 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A MODEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES TO KEEP A FRONT
TO THE SOUTH. WINDS MAY SHIFT LATE IN THE PERIOD TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ON MORE OF A
BERMUDA/AZORES CONFIGURATION. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE AS ANY EMBEDDED SURGES WILL BE WEAK. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
CONTINUE IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK

000
FXUS62 KILM 171341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
941 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A DRYING TREND DEVELOPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:45 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAVE ABOUT PETERED OUT...BUT ASSOCIATED RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES COULD STILL BECOME THE FOCI FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW:

LIGHT BUT DIMINISHING SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING OUR FAR WESTERN
DOORSTEP AT 10Z. NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THIS ACTIVITY COULD LAY DOWN WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FARTHER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
AUGMENTING THIS WITH SHARPLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INTO MIDDAY SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
SFC HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. PREVIOUS
MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A DECENT SHOT AT RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS COLUMN
MOISTURE TAKES ON A MARKED BUMP UPWARD TO AROUND 1.85 INCHES INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VAPOR ANIMATIONS CERTAINLY CONFIRM THIS
LIKELIHOOD WITH ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION PRESENTLY FIRING OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CYCLE INTO A WANING PHASE IN CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS ONLY TO RE-FIRE IN AFTERNOON HEATING CLOSER TO OUR
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY WITH FANNING OUTFLOWS MEANDERING ON
THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS TO THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS
MORNING. SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS POINT TO
ACTIVE SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION...WHICH IS FEASIBLE GIVEN THE UPTICK
TREND IN PWAT VALUES. OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH THE SURFACE
HEATING WILL BE RETARDED BY HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
LATER TODAY...BUT BELIEVE WITH SUCH ABUNDANT COLUMN H20
AVAILABLE...ANY LOW-LEVEL TRIGGERS OUGHT TO BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIP
OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TODAY...ONLY TO BE PERPETUATED BY
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS.

MAXIMUMS WILL BE HINDERED A BIT BY THE ENCROACHING CLOUDS AND IN
GENERAL AM EXPECTING MIDDLE 80S MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT
HOURS AND MINIMUMS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 70 OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND BALMY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A WET SCENARIO IS STILL ON TAP DURING THE
SHORT TERM AS A WESTERLY MOISTURE LADEN MID LEVEL FLOW KEEPS
THINGS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. I
HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS THE LINGERING OF THE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY
AND I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME. THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE FEATURES
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE RATHER TEPID WITH THE
LETHARGIC NATURE OF THE SHEAR. THE MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHER WHEN COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCE
IS NOT QUITE AS DRAMATIC AS PREVIOUS CYCLES WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE. I HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MAV NUMBERS ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...INDICATIONS ARE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. WPC IS
PREFERRING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION AND GFS MEAN. AT
THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL STILL BE WORTH WATCHING TO THE SOUTH
EARLY ON BUT LATER IN THE PERIOD THIS FEATURE BASICALLY
DISSIPATES. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS INITIALLY
TRENDING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATE. ONCE AGAIN NO REAL STORYLINE
REGARDING TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THERE WILL BE TEMPO MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL BY TERMINALS AND ALSO NEAR
KFLO/KLBT 15-16Z. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST VCTS AT
KFLO/KLBT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT APPROACHING CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/POTENTIAL AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. INLAND
CONVECTION WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...ENDING BY LATE EVENING. SHOULD BE A LULL IN CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS MAINLY INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:45 AM MONDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE
WITH A LIGHT SWLY WIND IN THE 10 KT RANGE. NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW:

3-4 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED A
MODERATE SW WIND FIELD ACROSS THE 0-20NM WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED OF SSW WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 5 SECONDS OR SO...MIXED WITH
SE WAVES OF 1-2 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FAVORED
MORE-SO TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY
IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. STILL DON/T EXPECT ANY OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DISTORT THE SYNOPTIC FLOW APPRECIABLY AND
SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KNOTS TUESDAY INCREASING TO THE LOWER
END OF A 15-20 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF SWAN GIVES
SEAS OF 2-3 FEET TUESDAY INCREASING TO POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA ALBEIT BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY. MORE LIKELY IS A SCEC HEADLINE
FOR 3-5 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A MODEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES TO KEEP A FRONT
TO THE SOUTH. WINDS MAY SHIFT LATE IN THE PERIOD TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ON MORE OF A
BERMUDA/AZORES CONFIGURATION. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE AS ANY EMBEDDED SURGES WILL BE WEAK. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
CONTINUE IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK

000
FXUS62 KILM 171138
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
737 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A DRYING TREND DEVELOPS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...LIGHT BUT DIMINISHING SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING
OUR FAR WESTERN DOORSTEP AT 10Z. NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH IN TERMS OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THIS ACTIVITY COULD LAY
DOWN WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FARTHER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
AUGMENTING THIS WITH SHARPLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INTO MIDDAY SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
SFC HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. PREVIOUS MORNING
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A DECENT SHOT AT RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS COLUMN MOISTURE
TAKES ON A MARKED BUMP UPWARD TO AROUND 1.85 INCHES INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. VAPOR ANIMATIONS CERTAINLY CONFIRM THIS LIKELIHOOD
WITH ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION PRESENTLY FIRING OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY CYCLE INTO A WANING PHASE IN CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS
ONLY TO RE-FIRE IN AFTERNOON HEATING CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY WITH FANNING OUTFLOWS MEANDERING ON THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS TO THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
HIGH-RESOLUTION NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS POINT TO ACTIVE SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION...WHICH IS FEASIBLE GIVEN THE UPTICK TREND IN PWAT
VALUES. OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH THE SURFACE HEATING WILL BE
RETARDED BY HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LATER TODAY...BUT
BELIEVE WITH SUCH ABUNDANT COLUMN H20 AVAILABLE...ANY LOW-LEVEL
TRIGGERS OUGHT TO BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIP OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS TODAY...ONLY TO BE PERPETUATED BY SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS.

MAXIMUMS WILL BE HINDERED A BIT BY THE ENCROACHING CLOUDS AND IN
GENERAL AM EXPECTING MIDDLE 80S MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT
HOURS AND MINIMUMS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 70 OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND BALMY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A WET SCENARIO IS STILL ON TAP DURING THE
SHORT TERM AS A WESTERLY MOISTURE LADEN MID LEVEL FLOW KEEPS THINGS
RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A DIFFUSE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE IS THE LINGERING OF THE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY AND I
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME. THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE FEATURES SLOWLY DROP
SOUTH. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE RATHER TEPID WITH THE LETHARGIC NATURE
OF THE SHEAR. THE MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WHEN COMPARED TO
THE MET GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCE IS NOT QUITE AS DRAMATIC AS
PREVIOUS CYCLES WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE. I HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
HIGHER MAV NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...INDICATIONS ARE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. WPC IS PREFERRING
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION AND GEFS MEAN. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONT WILL STILL BE WORTH WATCHING TO THE SOUTH EARLY ON
BUT LATER IN THE PERIOD THIS FEATURE BASICALLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED
TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS INITIALLY TRENDING DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LATE. ONCE AGAIN NO REAL STORYLINE REGARDING TEMPERATURES
WITH FORECAST VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THERE WILL BE TEMPO MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AT
ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE JUST INLAND
OF THE COASTAL BY TERMINALS AND ALSO NEAR KFLO/KLBT 15-16Z. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST VCTS AT KFLO/KLBT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT APPROACHING CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR TEMPO
MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. INLAND CONVECTION WILL END BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS...ENDING BY LATE
EVENING. SHOULD BE A LULL IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPS MAINLY INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT REDUCING VSBYS TO
MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...3-4 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED A MODERATE SW WIND FIELD ACROSS THE 0-20NM
WATERS. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF SSW WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 5
SECONDS OR SO...MIXED WITH SE WAVES OF 1-2 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FAVORED MORE-SO TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY IF IT
OCCURS AT ALL. STILL DON/T EXPECT ANY OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO DISTORT THE SYNOPTIC FLOW APPRECIABLY AND SPEEDS WILL
RANGE FROM 10-15 KNOTS TUESDAY INCREASING TO THE LOWER END OF A
15-20 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF SWAN GIVES SEAS OF
2-3 FEET TUESDAY INCREASING TO POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALBEIT
BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY. MORE LIKELY IS A SCEC HEADLINE FOR 3-5 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A MODEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES TO KEEP A FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. WINDS MAY SHIFT LATE IN THE PERIOD TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ON MORE OF A BERMUDA/AZORES
CONFIGURATION. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE AS ANY
EMBEDDED SURGES WILL BE WEAK. SIGNIFICANT SEAS CONTINUE IN A 2-4
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KILM 171024
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A DRYING TREND DEVELOPS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...LIGHT BUT DIMINISHING SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING
OUR FAR WESTERN DOORSTEP AT 10Z. NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH IN TERMS OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THIS ACTIVITY COULD LAY
DOWN WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FARTHER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
AUGMENTING THIS WITH SHARPLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INTO MIDDAY SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
SFC HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. PREVIOUS MORNING
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A DECENT SHOT AT RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS COLUMN MOISTURE
TAKES ON A MARKED BUMP UPWARD TO AROUND 1.85 INCHES INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. VAPOR ANIMATIONS CERTAINLY CONFIRM THIS LIKELIHOOD
WITH ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION PRESENTLY FIRING OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY CYCLE INTO A WANING PHASE IN CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS
ONLY TO RE-FIRE IN AFTERNOON HEATING CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY WITH FANNING OUTFLOWS MEANDERING ON THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS TO THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
HIGH-RESOLUTION NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS POINT TO ACTIVE SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION...WHICH IS FEASIBLE GIVEN THE UPTICK TREND IN PWAT
VALUES. OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH THE SURFACE HEATING WILL BE
RETARDED BY HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LATER TODAY...BUT
BELIEVE WITH SUCH ABUNDANT COLUMN H20 AVAILABLE...ANY LOW-LEVEL
TRIGGERS OUGHT TO BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIP OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS TODAY...ONLY TO BE PERPETUATED BY SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS.

MAXIMUMS WILL BE HINDERED A BIT BY THE ENCROACHING CLOUDS AND IN
GENERAL AM EXPECTING MIDDLE 80S MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT
HOURS AND MINIMUMS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 70 OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND BALMY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A WET SCENARIO IS STILL ON TAP DURING THE
SHORT TERM AS A WESTERLY MOISTURE LADEN MID LEVEL FLOW KEEPS THINGS
RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A DIFFUSE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE IS THE LINGERING OF THE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY AND I
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME. THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE FEATURES SLOWLY DROP
SOUTH. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE RATHER TEPID WITH THE LETHARGIC NATURE
OF THE SHEAR. THE MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WHEN COMPARED TO
THE MET GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCE IS NOT QUITE AS DRAMATIC AS
PREVIOUS CYCLES WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE. I HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
HIGHER MAV NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...INDICATIONS ARE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. WPC IS PREFERRING
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION AND GEFS MEAN. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONT WILL STILL BE WORTH WATCHING TO THE SOUTH EARLY ON
BUT LATER IN THE PERIOD THIS FEATURE BASICALLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED
TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS INITIALLY TRENDING DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LATE. ONCE AGAIN NO REAL STORYLINE REGARDING TEMPERATURES
WITH FORECAST VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10Z...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO OUR CWA LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. THESE
CLOUDS ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION BEFORE DAWN. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY
IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTION AND UPPER SUPPORT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE MOIST
THIS AFTN...WITH PWATS NEARING/EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS FOR KFLO/KLBT LATER TODAY AS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH -SHRA PERHAPS FAVORING THE COASTAL SITES.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN S/SW THRU THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS INLAND AND
10-15 KTS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...3-4 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED A MODERATE SW WIND FIELD ACROSS THE 0-20NM
WATERS. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF SSW WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 5
SECONDS OR SO...MIXED WITH SE WAVES OF 1-2 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FAVORED MORE-SO TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY IF IT
OCCURS AT ALL. STILL DON/T EXPECT ANY OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO DISTORT THE SYNOPTIC FLOW APPRECIABLY AND SPEEDS WILL
RANGE FROM 10-15 KNOTS TUESDAY INCREASING TO THE LOWER END OF A
15-20 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF SWAN GIVES SEAS OF
2-3 FEET TUESDAY INCREASING TO POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALBEIT
BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY. MORE LIKELY IS A SCEC HEADLINE FOR 3-5 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A MODEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES TO KEEP A FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. WINDS MAY SHIFT LATE IN THE PERIOD TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ON MORE OF A BERMUDA/AZORES
CONFIGURATION. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE AS ANY
EMBEDDED SURGES WILL BE WEAK. SIGNIFICANT SEAS CONTINUE IN A 2-4
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR/MJC

000
FXUS62 KILM 171022
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A DRYING TREND DEVELOPS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...LIGHT BUT DIMINISHING SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING
OUR FAR WESTERN DOORSTEP AT 10Z. NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH IN TERMS OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THIS ACTIVITY COULD LAY
DOWN WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FARTHER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
AUGMENTING THIS WITH SHARPLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INTO MIDDAY SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
SFC HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE DAYBREAK UPDATE.

A DECENT SHOT AT RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD AS COLUMN MOISTURE TAKES ON A MARKED BUMP UPWARD TO AROUND
1.85 INCHES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VAPOR ANIMATIONS CERTAINLY
CONFIRM THIS LIKELIHOOD WITH ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION PRESENTLY FIRING
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CYCLE INTO A WANING PHASE IN CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS ONLY TO RE-FIRE IN AFTERNOON HEATING CLOSER TO OUR
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY WITH FANNING OUTFLOWS MEANDERING ON THE
EASTERN FOOTHILLS TO THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS POINT TO ACTIVE
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION...WHICH IS FEASIBLE GIVEN THE UPTICK TREND IN
PWAT VALUES. OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH THE SURFACE HEATING WILL BE
RETARDED BY HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LATER TODAY...BUT
BELIEVE WITH SUCH ABUNDANT COLUMN H20 AVAILABLE...ANY LOW-LEVEL
TRIGGERS OUGHT TO BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIP OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS TODAY...ONLY TO BE PERPETUATED BY SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS.

MAXIMUMS WILL BE HINDERED A BIT BY THE ENCROACHING CLOUDS AND IN
GENERAL AM EXPECTING MIDDLE 80S MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT
HOURS AND MINIMUMS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 70 OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND BALMY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A WET SCENARIO IS STILL ON TAP DURING THE
SHORT TERM AS A WESTERLY MOISTURE LADEN MID LEVEL FLOW KEEPS THINGS
RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A DIFFUSE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE IS THE LINGERING OF THE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY AND I
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME. THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE FEATURES SLOWLY DROP
SOUTH. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE RATHER TEPID WITH THE LETHARGIC NATURE
OF THE SHEAR. THE MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WHEN COMPARED TO
THE MET GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCE IS NOT QUITE AS DRAMATIC AS
PREVIOUS CYCLES WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE. I HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
HIGHER MAV NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...INDICATIONS ARE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. WPC IS PREFERRING
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION AND GEFS MEAN. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONT WILL STILL BE WORTH WATCHING TO THE SOUTH EARLY ON
BUT LATER IN THE PERIOD THIS FEATURE BASICALLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED
TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS INITIALLY TRENDING DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LATE. ONCE AGAIN NO REAL STORYLINE REGARDING TEMPERATURES
WITH FORECAST VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10Z...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO OUR CWA LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. THESE
CLOUDS ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION BEFORE DAWN. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY
IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTION AND UPPER SUPPORT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE MOIST
THIS AFTN...WITH PWATS NEARING/EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS FOR KFLO/KLBT LATER TODAY AS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH -SHRA PERHAPS FAVORING THE COASTAL SITES.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN S/SW THRU THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS INLAND AND
10-15 KTS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...3-4 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED A MODERATE SW WIND FIELD ACROSS THE 0-20NM
WATERS. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF SSW WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 5
SECONDS OR SO...MIXED WITH SE WAVES OF 1-2 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FAVORED MORE-SO TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY IF IT
OCCURS AT ALL. STILL DON/T EXPECT ANY OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO DISTORT THE SYNOPTIC FLOW APPRECIABLY AND SPEEDS WILL
RANGE FROM 10-15 KNOTS TUESDAY INCREASING TO THE LOWER END OF A
15-20 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF SWAN GIVES SEAS OF
2-3 FEET TUESDAY INCREASING TO POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALBEIT
BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY. MORE LIKELY IS A SCEC HEADLINE FOR 3-5 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A MODEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES TO KEEP A FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. WINDS MAY SHIFT LATE IN THE PERIOD TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ON MORE OF A BERMUDA/AZORES
CONFIGURATION. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE AS ANY
EMBEDDED SURGES WILL BE WEAK. SIGNIFICANT SEAS CONTINUE IN A 2-4
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR/MJC

000
FXUS62 KILM 170722
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
322 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A DRYING TREND DEVELOPS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A DECENT SHOT AT RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD AS COLUMN MOISTURE TAKES ON A MARKED BUMP UPWARD TO AROUND
1.85 INCHES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VAPOR ANIMATIONS CERTAINLY
CONFIRM THIS LIKELIHOOD WITH ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION PRESENTLY
FIRING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CYCLE INTO A WANING PHASE IN
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS ONLY TO RE-FIRE IN AFTERNOON HEATING
CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY WITH FANNING OUTFLOWS
MEANDERING ON THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS TO THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN
LATER THIS MORNING. SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS
POINT TO ACTIVE SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION...WHICH IS FEASIBLE GIVEN
THE UPTICK TREND IN PWAT VALUES. OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH THE
SURFACE HEATING WILL BE RETARDED BY HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS LATER TODAY...BUT BELIEVE WITH SUCH ABUNDANT COLUMN H20
AVAILABLE...ANY LOW-LEVEL TRIGGERS OUGHT TO BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIP
OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TODAY...ONLY TO BE PERPETUATED
BY SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS.

MAXIMUMS WILL BE HINDERED A BIT BY THE ENCROACHING CLOUDS AND IN
GENERAL AM EXPECTING MIDDLE 80S MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT
HOURS AND MINIMUMS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 70 OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND BALMY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A WET SCENARIO IS STILL ON TAP DURING THE SHORT TERM
AS A WESTERLY MOISTURE LADEN MID LEVEL FLOW KEEPS THINGS RATHER
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE
WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIKELY
POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS THE
LINGERING OF THE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY AND I HAVE INCREASED POPS
FOR THIS TIME. THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE FEATURES SLOWLY DROP SOUTH. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER TEPID WITH THE LETHARGIC NATURE OF THE SHEAR. THE MAV
NUMBERS CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WHEN COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE
ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCE IS NOT QUITE AS DRAMATIC AS PREVIOUS CYCLES
WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE. I HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MAV
NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...INDICATIONS ARE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. WPC IS PREFERRING A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION AND GEFS MEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONT WILL STILL BE WORTH WATCHING TO THE SOUTH EARLY ON BUT LATER
IN THE PERIOD THIS FEATURE BASICALLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS INITIALLY TRENDING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE
LATE. ONCE AGAIN NO REAL STORYLINE REGARDING TEMPERATURES WITH
FORECAST VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO OUR CWA LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. THESE
CLOUDS ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION BEFORE DAWN. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY
IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTION AND UPPER SUPPORT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE MOIST
THIS AFTN...WITH PWATS NEARING/EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS FOR KFLO/KLBT LATER TODAY AS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH -SHRA PERHAPS FAVORING THE COASTAL SITES.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN S/SW THRU THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS INLAND AND
10-15 KTS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...3-4 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED A MODERATE SW WIND FIELD ACROSS THE 0-20NM
WATERS. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF SSW WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 5
SECONDS OR SO...MIXED WITH SE WAVES OF 1-2 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FAVORED MORE-SO TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY IF IT
OCCURS AT ALL. STILL DON/T EXPECT ANY OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO DISTORT THE SYNOPTIC FLOW APPRECIABLY AND SPEEDS WILL
RANGE FROM 10-15 KNOTS TUESDAY INCREASING TO THE LOWER END OF A
15-20 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF SWAN GIVES SEAS OF
2-3 FEET TUESDAY INCREASING TO POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
ALBEIT BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY. MORE LIKELY IS A SCEC HEADLINE FOR 3-5 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A MODEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST OF
THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES TO KEEP A FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. WINDS MAY SHIFT LATE IN THE PERIOD TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ON MORE OF A BERMUDA/AZORES
CONFIGURATION. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE AS ANY
EMBEDDED SURGES WILL BE WEAK. SIGNIFICANT SEAS CONTINUE IN A 2-4
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KILM 170527
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
127 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A DRYING TREND DEVELOPS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT
CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO MON MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVE...ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT...MOST PREVALENT INLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 5 KFT.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MON
MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THRESHOLD THROUGH 7 AM.

INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL JETTING...UP TO 25 KT...WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO AS
HIGH AS 15 MPH AND INCREASING COLUMNAR MOISTURE...WILL KEEP TEMPS
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGHER AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. A FEW PLACES COULD FIND THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE MID 60S
FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE BEACHES SHOULD BE WARMEST...MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY WET WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.  COMBINING THAT WITH
LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND THE SEA BREEZE MONDAY AND AN APPROACHING
FRONT TUESDAY ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOULD
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TUESDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S
TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAKLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATEST GFS HAS GONE BACK TO PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH QUICKER...BUT NOT ON BOARD. THIS COULD BE DOWN TO
FEEDBACK CAUSING OVER AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AS THE
GFS SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE MOUNTAIN WEST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD THAT THE 00Z ECMWF LACKS. LATE IN THE WEEK RIDGING OVER
CENTRAL US SLOWLY BUILDS WEST...HELPING PUSH THE BOUNDARY AND ITS
MOISTURE OFF THE COAST. THE GFS DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND BUT A LOT OF THIS APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY FEEDBACK FROM
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT WILL FAVOR
DRYER FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO OUR CWA LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. THESE
CLOUDS ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION BEFORE DAWN. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY
IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTION AND UPPER SUPPORT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE MOIST
THIS AFTN...WITH PWATS NEARING/EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS FOR KFLO/KLBT LATER TODAY AS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH -SHRA PERHAPS FAVORING THE COASTAL SITES.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN S/SW THRU THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS INLAND AND
10-15 KTS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL JETTING...UP TO 25 KT...WILL ALLOW FOR A
RATHER WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WATERS. AT THE SURFACE...
EXPECT SUSTAINED SW WINDS UP TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF WIND AND SWELL.
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE WILL HAVE MOST OF THE ENERGY...THE SWELL WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE. A SE SWELL WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT S TO SW FLOW INVOF 15 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH 20 KT IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT MONDAY MORNING COULD BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT
TUESDAY...WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE AT 20 NM...ESPECIALLY NEAR
FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD BECOMES
VARIABLE WED NIGHT BEFORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES HOLD THU AND
FRI. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH FRONT STALLED CLOSE TO THE WATERS.
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO 3 FT THU AND 2 TO 3 FT
FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/8

000
FXUS62 KILM 170224
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1023 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT
CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO MON MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVE...ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT...MOST PREVALENT INLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 5 KFT.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MON
MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THRESHOLD THROUGH 7 AM.

INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL JETTING...UP TO 25 KT...WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO AS
HIGH AS 15 MPH AND INCREASING COLUMNAR MOISTURE...WILL KEEP TEMPS
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGHER AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. A FEW PLACES COULD FIND THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE MID 60S
FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE BEACHES SHOULD BE WARMEST...MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY WET WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.  COMBINING THAT WITH
LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND THE SEA BREEZE MONDAY AND AN APPROACHING
FRONT TUESDAY ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOULD
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TUESDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S
TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAKLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATEST GFS HAS GONE BACK TO PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH QUICKER...BUT NOT ON BOARD. THIS COULD BE DOWN TO
FEEDBACK CAUSING OVER AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AS THE
GFS SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE MOUNTAIN WEST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD THAT THE 00Z ECMWF LACKS. LATE IN THE WEEK RIDGING OVER
CENTRAL US SLOWLY BUILDS WEST...HELPING PUSH THE BOUNDARY AND ITS
MOISTURE OFF THE COAST. THE GFS DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND BUT A LOT OF THIS APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY FEEDBACK FROM
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT WILL FAVOR
DRYER FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL CU IS
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CLOUD COVER AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. KFLO/KLBT COULD SEE
MID-LEVEL VFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE NEAR OUR WESTERN CWA. PWAT VALUES > 2.0 INCHES AFTER 15Z
INLAND/18Z COASTAL INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
PCPN. SHOWERS/T-STORMS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE AFTN HOURS AS THE
SFC DESTABILIZES AND THE SEA BREEZE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP.
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THRU THE PERIOD...
INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS IN THE AFTN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL JETTING...UP TO 25 KT...WILL ALLOW FOR A
RATHER WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WATERS. AT THE SURFACE...
EXPECT SUSTAINED SW WINDS UP TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF WIND AND SWELL.
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE WILL HAVE MOST OF THE ENERGY...THE SWELL WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE. A SE SWELL WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT S TO SW FLOW INVOF 15 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH 20 KT IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT MONDAY MORNING COULD BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT
TUESDAY...WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE AT 20 NM...ESPECIALLY NEAR
FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD BECOMES
VARIABLE WED NIGHT BEFORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES HOLD THU AND
FRI. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH FRONT STALLED CLOSE TO THE WATERS.
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO 3 FT THU AND 2 TO 3 FT
FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR