000
FXUS62 KILM 181139
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
739 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER WITH CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO THE NORTH. FLOW AT PRESENT IS ACTUALLY
MAINLY FROM THE SW...BUT A SLIGHT RE- ORIENTATION OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE AN EXTRA KICK INLAND TO THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION THAT WILL START DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING.
AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND THUS BRINGING WITH IT A GREATER
MARINE INFLUENCE EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS
RECENTLY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL STILL COME IN A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE. GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
MOST LOCATIONS...AND AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ODDS WILL REMAIN MODEST IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WELL INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ADVANCES UPON THE AREA. MOST
PLACES...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST...WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD DURING THE SHORT TERM...COMBINING WITH RICH THETA-E AIR ON
RETURN FLOW TO CREATE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH AFTN.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUALLY PUMP
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES.
THIS IS A PATTERN WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE 5H
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING LIFT AND PROMOTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES DUE TO A
COOL POOL ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS
USUAL FOR THIS SETUP. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S EACH
AFTN...MLCAPE WILL RISE WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG...FUELING CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. SREF PROBS FOR 0.01"
RISE TO 100% (TYPICALLY A SIGNAL THAT QPF IS LIKELY) BOTH SUN AND
MON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY FOR
THIS AREA BOTH AFTNS. WHILE SEVERE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH
STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED...BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL OCCUR
WITHIN TSTMS DUE TO THE SATURATED COLUMN.
EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED...RESIDUAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO LIVE ON SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND
NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST SCHC EACH NIGHT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. MINS EACH NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MID-MAY...FALLING INTO THE MID 60S...UPR 60S AT THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST
DURING THE EXTENDED AS BERMUDA HIGH SITS OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BULGES FROM THE GULF COAST. WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
TSTM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WED/THU. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES OR COLD
FRONT IMPACTS BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE WED/THU...BUT ALL
DAYS WILL BE CLIMO...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AFTER ANY RESIDUAL MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THIS
AM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
AT LBT/FLO. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCE AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH THE EXCLUDE FROM THE TAFS. WINDS SHOULD BE S TO
SW 5 TO 10 KT DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL
TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR-SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BRINGS NEAR-SHORE WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS. SEAS WILL
NOT STRAY FAR FROM PRESENT 2 FT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD GET
CHOPPY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE VERY STRONG...S/SW WINDS AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
10-15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DIURNAL OR DIRECTIONAL
FLUCTUATION. WITH BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE...PERSISTENT EAST
AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND IT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY LONG-PERIOD
SWELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT AT 10 SEC ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
S/SW WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED BERMUDA RIDGE SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP PERSISTENT 10-15 KTS OF S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. THE
LONG TEMPORAL DURATION OF THIS FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL
KEEP A 2FT/10 SEC SE SWELL IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH 3-4 FT SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THESE TWO WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...RAN
000
FXUS62 KILM 181016
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
616 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER WITH CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO THE NORTH. FLOW AT PRESENT IS ACTUALLY
MAINLY FROM THE SW...BUT A SLIGHT RE- ORIENTATION OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE AN EXTRA KICK INLAND TO THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION THAT WILL START DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING.
AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND THUS BRINGING WITH IT A GREATER
MARINE INFLUENCE EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS
RECENTLY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL STILL COME IN A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE. GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
MOST LOCATIONS...AND AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ODDS WILL REMAIN MODEST IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WELL INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ADVANCES UPON THE AREA. MOST
PLACES...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST...WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD DURING THE SHORT TERM...COMBINING WITH RICH THETA-E AIR ON
RETURN FLOW TO CREATE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH AFTN.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUALLY PUMP
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES.
THIS IS A PATTERN WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE 5H
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING LIFT AND PROMOTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES DUE TO A
COOL POOL ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS
USUAL FOR THIS SETUP. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S EACH
AFTN...MLCAPE WILL RISE WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG...FUELING CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. SREF PROBS FOR 0.01"
RISE TO 100% (TYPICALLY A SIGNAL THAT QPF IS LIKELY) BOTH SUN AND
MON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY FOR
THIS AREA BOTH AFTNS. WHILE SEVERE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH
STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED...BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL OCCUR
WITHIN TSTMS DUE TO THE SATURATED COLUMN.
EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED...RESIDUAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO LIVE ON SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND
NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST SCHC EACH NIGHT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. MINS EACH NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MID-MAY...FALLING INTO THE MID 60S...UPR 60S AT THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST
DURING THE EXTENDED AS BERMUDA HIGH SITS OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BULGES FROM THE GULF COAST. WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
TSTM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WED/THU. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES OR COLD
FRONT IMPACTS BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE WED/THU...BUT ALL
DAYS WILL BE CLIMO...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER DISTURBANCE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS MOST FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KLBT/KFLO. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12 KTS. ISOLATED
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PCPN IN
THE TAFS ATTM AS COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP.
CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER 00Z...BUT IT APPEARS THAT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL
TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR-SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BRINGS NEAR-SHORE WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS. SEAS WILL
NOT STRAY FAR FROM PRESENT 2 FT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD GET
CHOPPY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE VERY STRONG...S/SW WINDS AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
10-15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DIURNAL OR DIRECTIONAL
FLUCTUATION. WITH BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE...PERSISTENT EAST
AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND IT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY LONG-PERIOD
SWELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT AT 10 SEC ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
S/SW WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED BERMUDA RIDGE SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP PERSISTENT 10-15 KTS OF S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. THE
LONG TEMPORAL DURATION OF THIS FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL
KEEP A 2FT/10 SEC SE SWELL IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH 3-4 FT SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THESE TWO WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK/JDW
000
FXUS62 KILM 180735
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER WITH CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 AM SATURDAY...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO THE NORTH. FLOW AT
PRESENT IS ACTUALLY MAINLY FROM THE SW...BUT A SLIGHT RE-ORIENTATION
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
TO SURFACE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE AN EXTRA KICK INLAND
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THAT WILL START DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING. AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND THUS BRINGING WITH IT A
GREATER MARINE INFLUENCE EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS
RECENTLY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL STILL COME IN A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE. GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
MOST LOCATIONS...AND AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ODDS WILL REMAIN MODEST IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WELL INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ADVANCES UPON THE AREA. MOST
PLACES...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST...WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD DURING THE SHORT TERM...COMBINING WITH RICH THETA-E AIR ON
RETURN FLOW TO CREATE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH AFTN.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUALLY PUMP
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES.
THIS IS A PATTERN WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE 5H
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING LIFT AND PROMOTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES DUE TO A
COOL POOL ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS
USUAL FOR THIS SETUP. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S EACH
AFTN...MLCAPE WILL RISE WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG...FUELING CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. SREF PROBS FOR 0.01"
RISE TO 100% (TYPICALLY A SIGNAL THAT QPF IS LIKELY) BOTH SUN AND
MON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY FOR
THIS AREA BOTH AFTNS. WHILE SEVERE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH
STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED...BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL OCCUR
WITHIN TSTMS DUE TO THE SATURATED COLUMN.
EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED...RESIDUAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO LIVE ON SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND
NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST SCHC EACH NIGHT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. MINS EACH NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MID-MAY...FALLING INTO THE MID 60S...UPR 60S AT THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST
DURING THE EXTENDED AS BERMUDA HIGH SITS OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BULGES FROM THE GULF COAST. WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
TSTM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WED/THU. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES OR COLD
FRONT IMPACTS BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE WED/THU...BUT ALL
DAYS WILL BE CLIMO...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER DISTURBANCE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS MOST FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KLBT/KFLO. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12 KTS. ISOLATED
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PCPN IN
THE TAFS ATTM AS COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP.
CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER 00Z...BUT IT APPEARS THAT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS AS A FRONT
REMAINS STALLED WELL TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR-SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS
A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BRINGS NEAR-SHORE WINDS UP TO AROUND 15
KTS. SEAS WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM PRESENT 2 FT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THEY
COULD GET CHOPPY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE VERY STRONG...S/SW WINDS AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
10-15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DIURNAL OR DIRECTIONAL
FLUCTUATION. WITH BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE...PERSISTENT EAST
AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND IT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY LONG-PERIOD
SWELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT AT 10 SEC ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
S/SW WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED BERMUDA RIDGE SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP PERSISTENT 10-15 KTS OF S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. THE
LONG TEMPORAL DURATION OF THIS FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL
KEEP A 2FT/10 SEC SE SWELL IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH 3-4 FT SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THESE TWO WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK
MARINE...REK/JDW
000
FXUS62 KILM 180604
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
204 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 2:00 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN A ROUGHLY CAPE LOOKOUT TO RDU
LINE. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN NOTED BY THE KLTX 88D ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS LINE...WITH MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE ILM CWA. WITH A
LACK OF FORCING ACROSS THE ILM CWA...DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND
CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...POPS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OVERNITE
FORECAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE PATCHY
GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS DUE TO HIER...60+...DEWPOINTS HAVING
ADVECTED ACROSS THE FA...AND WITH WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING FOR
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL
DEGREES OF H5 COOLING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. SATURDAY
A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LURK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
VERY NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST ZONES. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POP VALUES WILL BE FAVORED
DURING AND AFTER MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING...AND MOSTLY INLAND SINCE
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST PWATS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATE STANDARDS FOR MIDDLE MAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO ON MONDAY DESPITE
BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN
NORMALLY EXPECTED IN SUCH A SETUP AND THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO HINDER INSOLATION. THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST (ALTHOUGH NOT ACCORD TO GFS) LEADING TO
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND FAVORING THE TREND TOWARDS
WARMTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD SEES
THE MID LVL RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED FROM THE N BY TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPING OVER ERN CANADA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT`LL HAVE
THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AT LEAST WITH THE
RAPIDITY SHOWN BY THE GFS. EC AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWER SHOWING THAT
COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH NOT CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL FRIDAY TO
START RAMPING UP POPS AND TEMPERING THE WARMTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER DISTURBANCE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS MOST FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KLBT/KFLO. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12 KTS. ISOLATED
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PCPN IN
THE TAFS ATTM AS COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP.
CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER 00Z...BUT IT APPEARS THAT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
LOOKOUT THIS EVENING...AND WILL BEGIN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS WEEKEND. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS HAS NEARLY DECAYED IN ITS ENTIRETY. THIS LEAVES
RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH TO RESUME PRIMARY CONTROL
OF THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT TO
YIELD MAINLY A SW WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY 10-15 KT ILM SC
WATERS. THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR MAY ACTUALLY OBSERVE 5 KT OR
LESS DUE TO THE FRONTS PROXIMITY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH ITS MAKE-UP A COMBINATION OF A 1.0 TO 1.5
FOOT SE GROUNDSWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS...AND LOCALLY PRODUCED 4
SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS...BRINGING MODERATE SW WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS...AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET SATURDAY MAY INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF MODERATE SSW WIND-WAVES AND
SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-10 SECONDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE MEANINGFUL VARIABILITY FROM DAY TO DAY
FOR THE EXTENDED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BORNE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WITH SPEEDS TENDING TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15KT RANGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LATER IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH
BECOMES SUPPRESSED AND DEFORMED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND SPEEDS. CURRENT
THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER
THAN DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND SO THIS WILL NOT CURRENTLY BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...DCH/MJC/REK/MBB
000
FXUS62 KILM 180357
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1157 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM FRIDAY...CONTINUED TO MODIFY SFC PARAMETERS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DECAYING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ACROSS THE FA.
AND AS BEFORE...MESHED THESE CHANGES WITH THE ONGOING SAT PRE-
DAWN HR FORECAST. THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN A
ROUGHLY CAPE LOOKOUT TO RDU LINE. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN NOTED
BY THE KLTX 88D ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS LINE...WITH MOVEMENT AWAY
FROM THE ILM CWA. WITH A LACK OF FORCING ACROSS THE ILM CWA...
DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...POPS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OVERNITE FORECAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE PATCHY GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS DUE
TO HIER...60+...DEWPOINTS HAVING ADVECTED ACROSS THE FA...AND
WITH WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING FOR SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL
DEGREES OF H5 COOLING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. SATURDAY
A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LURK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
VERY NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST ZONES. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POP VALUES WILL BE FAVORED
DURING AND AFTER MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING...AND MOSTLY INLAND SINCE
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST PWATS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATE STANDARDS FOR MIDDLE MAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO ON MONDAY DESPITE
BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN
NORMALLY EXPECTED IN SUCH A SETUP AND THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO HINDER INSOLATION. THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST (ALTHOUGH NOT ACCORD TO GFS) LEADING TO
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND FAVORING THE TREND TOWARDS
WARMTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD SEES
THE MID LVL RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED FROM THE N BY TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPING OVER ERN CANADA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT`LL HAVE
THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AT LEAST WITH THE
RAPIDITY SHOWN BY THE GFS. EC AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWER SHOWING THAT
COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH NOT CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL FRIDAY TO
START RAMPING UP POPS AND TEMPERING THE WARMTH.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING WITH S-SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
ENHANCED NEAR SFC WINDS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FOG IS UNLIKELY...BUT
PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
VSBYS INLAND...KLBT/KFLO...ALONG WITH FOG-PRONE KCRE. EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN HOURS...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 PM FRIDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN THE
VICINITY OF CAPE LOOKOUT THIS EVENING...AND WILL BEGIN LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH DURING THIS WEEKEND. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS HAS NEARLY DECAYED IN ITS ENTIRETY. THIS
LEAVES RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH TO RESUME PRIMARY
CONTROL OF THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT TO YIELD MAINLY A SW WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY
10-15 KT ILM SC WATERS. THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR MAY ACTUALLY
OBSERVE 5 KT OR LESS DUE TO THE FRONTS PROXIMITY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH ITS MAKE-UP A COMBINATION
OF A 1.0 TO 1.5 FOOT SE GROUNDSWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS...AND
LOCALLY PRODUCED 4 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS...BRINGING MODERATE SW WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS...AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET SATURDAY MAY INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF MODERATE SSW WIND-WAVES AND
SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-10 SECONDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE MEANINGFUL VARIABILITY FROM DAY TO DAY
FOR THE EXTENDED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BORNE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WITH SPEEDS TENDING TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15KT RANGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LATER IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH
BECOMES SUPPRESSED AND DEFORMED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND SPEEDS. CURRENT
THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER
THAN DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND SO THIS WILL NOT CURRENTLY BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
000
FXUS62 KILM 180020
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
820 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...MODIFIED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS ACROSS THE
ILM CWA DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND ITS EXTENT INLAND.
THIS WAS DONE PRIMARILY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...THEN
MESHING THESE CHANGED METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS WITH THE GOING
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION..THE LATEST KLTX 88D
INDICATES NO ECHOES ACROSS THE FA...AND THEREFORE WILL REMOVE ALL
POPS THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE A LACK
OF FORCING... DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...ALL POINTING NEGATIVE FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FA
OVERNIGHT. THE FA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...
WHICH IS PROGGED TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE LOOKOUT. SOME
OF THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE PATCHY GROUND FOG
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MEASURED AS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAP
AND GLOBAL GFS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. I HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS TO REPRESENT THIS TREND OF
WHICH THE FORCING INCLUDES THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...POSSIBLY A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND A BACKDOOR FRONT. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...I HAVE REMOVED POPS AFTER 0300 UTC. ENOUGH
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL
DEGREES OF H5 COOLING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. SATURDAY
A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LURK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
VERY NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST ZONES. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POP VALUES WILL BE FAVORED
DURING AND AFTER MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING...AND MOSTLY INLAND SINCE
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST PWATS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATE STANDARDS FOR MIDDLE MAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO ON MONDAY DESPITE
BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN
NORMALLY EXPECTED IN SUCH A SETUP AND THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO HINDER INSOLATION. THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST (ALTHOUGH NOT ACCORD TO GFS) LEADING TO
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND FAVORING THE TREND TOWARDS
WARMTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD SEES
THE MID LVL RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED FROM THE N BY TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPING OVER ERN CANADA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT`LL HAVE
THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AT LEAST WITH THE
RAPIDITY SHOWN BY THE GFS. EC AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWER SHOWING THAT
COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH NOT CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL FRIDAY TO
START RAMPING UP POPS AND TEMPERING THE WARMTH.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING WITH S-SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
ENHANCED NEAR SFC WINDS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FOG IS UNLIKELY...BUT
PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
VSBYS INLAND...KLBT/KFLO...ALONG WITH FOG-PRONE KCRE. EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN HOURS...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...MODELS PROG THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE LOOKOUT OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL DECAY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THIS
LEAVES RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH TO RESUME PRIMARY
CONTROL OF THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT TO YIELD SSW 10-15 KT WINDS TO VEER TO SW AROUND 10 KT
DURING THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
OCCASIONALLY 3 FT. SIG. SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF A 1.0 TO
1.5 FOOT SE GROUNDSWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS...AND LOCALLY PRODUCED
4 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS...BRINGING MODERATE SW WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS...AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET SATURDAY MAY INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF MODERATE SSW WIND-WAVES AND
SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-10 SECONDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE MEANINGFUL VARIABILITY FROM DAY TO DAY
FOR THE EXTENDED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BORNE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WITH SPEEDS TENDING TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15KT RANGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LATER IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH
BECOMES SUPPRESSED AND DEFORMED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND SPEEDS. CURRENT
THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER
THAN DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND SO THIS WILL NOT CURRENTLY BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
000
FXUS62 KILM 172359
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
759 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MEASURED AS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAP
AND GLOBAL GFS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. I HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS TO REPRESENT THIS TREND OF
WHICH THE FORCING INCLUDES THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...POSSIBLY A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND A BACKDOOR FRONT. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...I HAVE REMOVED POPS AFTER 0300 UTC. ENOUGH
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL
DEGREES OF H5 COOLING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. SATURDAY
A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LURK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
VERY NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST ZONES. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POP VALUES WILL BE FAVORED
DURING AND AFTER MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING...AND MOSTLY INLAND SINCE
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST PWATS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATE STANDARDS FOR MIDDLE MAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO ON MONDAY DESPITE
BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN
NORMALLY EXPECTED IN SUCH A SETUP AND THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO HINDER INSOLATION. THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST (ALTHOUGH NOT ACCORD TO GFS) LEADING TO
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND FAVORING THE TREND TOWARDS
WARMTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD SEES
THE MID LVL RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED FROM THE N BY TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPING OVER ERN CANADA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT`LL HAVE
THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AT LEAST WITH THE
RAPIDITY SHOWN BY THE GFS. EC AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWER SHOWING THAT
COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH NOT CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL FRIDAY TO
START RAMPING UP POPS AND TEMPERING THE WARMTH.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING WITH S-SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
ENHANCED NEAR SFC WINDS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FOG IS UNLIKELY...BUT
PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
VSBYS INLAND...KLBT/KFLO...ALONG WITH FOG-PRONE KCRE. EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN HOURS...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KT PREVAILS.
WAVEWATCH SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH PRECLUDING ANY WIND SHIFT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS...BRINGING MODERATE SW WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS...AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET SATURDAY MAY INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF MODERATE SSW WIND-WAVES AND
SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-10 SECONDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE MEANINGFUL VARIABILITY FROM DAY TO DAY
FOR THE EXTENDED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BORNE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WITH SPEEDS TENDING TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15KT RANGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LATER IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH
BECOMES SUPPRESSED AND DEFORMED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND SPEEDS. CURRENT
THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER
THAN DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND SO THIS WILL NOT CURRENTLY BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
000
FXUS62 KILM 171931
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
331 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MEASURED AS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAP
AND GLOBAL GFS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. I HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS TO REPRESENT THIS TREND OF
WHICH THE FORCING INCLUDES THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...POSSIBLY A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND A BACKDOOR FRONT. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...I HAVE REMOVED POPS AFTER 0300 UTC. ENOUGH
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL
DEGREES OF H5 COOLING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. SATURDAY
A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LURK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
VERY NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST ZONES. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POP VALUES WILL BE FAVORED
DURING AND AFTER MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING...AND MOSTLY INLAND SINCE
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST PWATS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATE STANDARDS FOR MIDDLE MAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO ON MONDAY DESPITE
BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN
NORMALLY EXPECTED IN SUCH A SETUP AND THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO HINDER INSOLATION. THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST (ALTHOUGH NOT ACCORD TO GFS) LEADING TO
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND FAVORING THE TREND TOWARDS
WARMTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD SEES
THE MID LVL RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED FROM THE N BY TROUGINESS
DEVELOPING OVER ERN CANADA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT`LL HAVE
THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AT LEAST WITH THE
RAPIDITY SHOWN BY THE GFS. EC AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWER SHOWING THAT
COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH NOT CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL FRIDAY TO
START RAMPING UP POPS AND TEMPERING THE WARMTH.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...AND LIKELY
INCREASE...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AS WELL. AFTER DAYBREAK...CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KT PREVAILS.
WAVEWATCH SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH PRECLUDING ANY WIND SHIFT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS...BRINGING MODERATE SW WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS...AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET SATURDAY MAY INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF MODERATE SSW WIND-WAVES AND
SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-10 SECONDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE MEANINGFUL VARIABILITY FROM DAY TO DAY
FOR THE EXTENDED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BORNE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WITH SPEEDS TENDING TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15KT RANGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LATER IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH
BECOMES SUPPRESSED AND DEFORMED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND SPEEDS. CURRENT
THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER
THAN DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND SO THIS WILL NOT CURRENTLY BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/SHK
000
FXUS62 KILM 171723
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
123 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MEASURED AS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAP AND
GLOBAL GFS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. I
HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS TO REPRESENT THIS TREND OF WHICH THE FORCING
INCLUDES THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...POSSIBLY A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM
ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND A BACKDOOR FRONT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...I HAVE REMOVED POPS AFTER 0300 UTC. ENOUGH DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK PATTERN ALOFT COUPLED WITH BERMUDA HIGH AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SAT AND SUN. FOR SAT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH WILL BE LIMITED.
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SUN AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND WEAK 5H
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.9 INCH BY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PRESENCE OF PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE HELP GENERATE CONVECTION.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCEMENT ALOFT WILL HELP SUSTAIN DEEPER
CONVECTION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR AND LACK OF STRONG JETTING SUGGEST STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SEVERE.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH WARM ADVECTION BEING
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ON SUN. LOWS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS IN BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE ARE MON...ONCE AGAIN CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS IS THE CASE
ON SUN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LACKING SO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
PRECIP CHANCES START TO DECREASE TUE AS 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST AND THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FILLS IN. REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE 5H RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA
HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR BELOW 12FT TUE EXPANDING
THROUGH THU AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ABOVE 15K FT MAY KEEP CIRRUS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED. LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE WELL BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD SO IT IS NOT A FACTOR AT THIS POINT.
HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO MON AND TUE BUT CLIMB
WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...AND LIKELY
INCREASE...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AS WELL. AFTER DAYBREAK...CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS PREVAILS.
WAVEWATCH SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH PRECLUDING ANY WIND SHIFT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SPEEDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOUTHEAST SWELL BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE APPARENT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH
KEEPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SOUTHEAST SWELL.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
000
FXUS62 KILM 171436
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1036 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 AM FRIDAY...ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. 0600 GFS STILL SHOWS SOME LIMITED/SHALLOW
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHICH IS SEA BREEZE DRIVEN. FURTHER
NORTH ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED BUT FOR THE
MOST PART IS NORTH OF OUR AREA. 0900 RAP GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. OVERALL THERE IS NO REASON TO REMOVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BUT WITH THE 1200 UTC MHX SOUNDING SHOWING A CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES F...IT WILL BE LATE. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK PATTERN ALOFT COUPLED WITH BERMUDA HIGH AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SAT AND SUN. FOR SAT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH WILL BE LIMITED.
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SUN AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND WEAK 5H
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.9 INCH BY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PRESENCE OF PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE HELP GENERATE CONVECTION.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCEMENT ALOFT WILL HELP SUSTAIN DEEPER
CONVECTION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR AND LACK OF STRONG JETTING SUGGEST STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SEVERE.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH WARM ADVECTION BEING
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ON SUN. LOWS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS IN BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE ARE MON...ONCE AGAIN CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS IS THE CASE
ON SUN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LACKING SO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
PRECIP CHANCES START TO DECREASE TUE AS 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST AND THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FILLS IN. REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE 5H RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA
HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR BELOW 12FT TUE EXPANDING
THROUGH THU AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ABOVE 15K FT MAY KEEP CIRRUS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED. LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE WELL BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD SO IT IS NOT A FACTOR AT THIS POINT.
HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO MON AND TUE BUT CLIMB
WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
INLAND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
TEETERING MVFR/IFR FOG AT KLBT. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...GIVING WAY TO VFR AREA-WIDE FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY WITH SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10
KTS EXPECTED TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...AND
LIKELY INCREASE...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. TOWARDS THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 AM FRIDAY...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. NO CHANGES WARRANTED. SUMMERTIME PATTERN REMAINS IN FULL
FORCE WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SPEEDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOUTHEAST SWELL BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE APPARENT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH
KEEPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SOUTHEAST SWELL.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
000
FXUS62 KILM 171145
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
745 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
ANOTHER DAY OF SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS AS A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S MOST LOCATIONS AND MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL STALL JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONVECTIVE INDICES AS DERIVED FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS APPROACH THE
AREA.
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MINIMUMS IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK PATTERN ALOFT COUPLED WITH BERMUDA HIGH AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SAT AND SUN. FOR SAT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH WILL BE LIMITED.
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SUN AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND WEAK 5H
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.9 INCH BY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PRESENCE OF PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE HELP GENERATE CONVECTION.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCEMENT ALOFT WILL HELP SUSTAIN DEEPER
CONVECTION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR AND LACK OF STRONG JETTING SUGGEST STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SEVERE.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH WARM ADVECTION BEING
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ON SUN. LOWS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS IN BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE ARE MON...ONCE AGAIN CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS IS THE CASE
ON SUN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LACKING SO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
PRECIP CHANCES START TO DECREASE TUE AS 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST AND THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FILLS IN. REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE 5H RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA
HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR BELOW 12FT TUE EXPANDING
THROUGH THU AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ABOVE 15K FT MAY KEEP CIRRUS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED. LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE WELL BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD SO IT IS NOT A FACTOR AT THIS POINT.
HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO MON AND TUE BUT CLIMB
WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
INLAND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
TEETERING MVFR/IFR FOG AT KLBT. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...GIVING WAY TO VFR AREA-WIDE FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY WITH SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10
KTS EXPECTED TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...AND
LIKELY INCREASE...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. TOWARDS THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SPEEDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOUTHEAST SWELL BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE APPARENT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH
KEEPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SOUTHEAST SWELL.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/III
000
FXUS62 KILM 171015
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
ANOTHER DAY OF SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS AS A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S MOST LOCATIONS AND MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL STALL JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONVECTIVE INDICES AS DERIVED FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS APPROACH THE
AREA.
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MINIMUMS IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK PATTERN ALOFT COUPLED WITH BERMUDA HIGH AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SAT AND SUN. FOR SAT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH WILL BE LIMITED.
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SUN AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND WEAK 5H
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.9 INCH BY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PRESENCE OF PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE HELP GENERATE CONVECTION.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCEMENT ALOFT WILL HELP SUSTAIN DEEPER
CONVECTION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR AND LACK OF STRONG JETTING SUGGEST STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SEVERE.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH WARM ADVECTION BEING
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ON SUN. LOWS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS IN BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE ARE MON...ONCE AGAIN CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS IS THE CASE
ON SUN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LACKING SO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
PRECIP CHANCES START TO DECREASE TUE AS 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST AND THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FILLS IN. REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE 5H RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA
HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR BELOW 12FT TUE EXPANDING
THROUGH THU AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ABOVE 15K FT MAY KEEP CIRRUS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED. LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE WELL BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD SO IT IS NOT A FACTOR AT THIS POINT.
HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO MON AND TUE BUT CLIMB
WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KTS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME SCT CU DURING
THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST FOLLOWING AFTN SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AFTER 00Z BEGINNING AT THE INLAND TERMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SPEEDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOUTHEAST SWELL BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE APPARENT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH
KEEPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SOUTHEAST SWELL.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/III
000
FXUS62 KILM 170707
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
307 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...ANOTHER DAY OF SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS AS A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WILL STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONVECTIVE INDICIES AS DERIVED FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS APPROACH THE
AREA.
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MINIMUMS IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK PATTERN ALOFT COUPLED WITH BERMUDA HIGH AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SAT AND SUN. FOR SAT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH WILL BE LIMITED.
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SUN AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND WEAK 5H
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.9 INCH BY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PRESENCE OF PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE HELP GENERATE CONVECTION.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCEMENT ALOFT WILL HELP SUSTAIN DEEPER
CONVECTION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR AND LACK OF STRONG JETTING SUGGEST STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SEVERE.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH WARM ADVECTION BEING
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ON SUN. LOWS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS IN BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE ARE MON...ONCE AGAIN CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS IS THE CASE
ON SUN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LACKING SO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
PRECIP CHANCES START TO DECREASE TUE AS 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST AND THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FILLS IN. REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE 5H RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA
HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR BELOW 12FT TUE EXPANDING
THROUGH THU AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ABOVE 15K FT MAY KEEP CIRRUS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED. LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE WELL BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD SO IT IS NOT A FACTOR AT THIS POINT.
HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO MON AND TUE BUT CLIMB
WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KTS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME SCT CU DURING
THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST FOLLOWING AFTN SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AFTER 00Z BEGINNING AT THE INLAND TERMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SPEEDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOUTHEAST SWELL BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE APPARENT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH
KEEPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SOUTHEAST SWELL.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR
000
FXUS62 KILM 170541
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
141 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:45 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
A MILD EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD UNDERWAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE PREVAILS. AIDING THE MILD REGIME ARE
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN IMPULSE EVIDENT IN VAPOR
ANIMATIONS MOVING E OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. CONVECTION WAS
CONFINED MAINLY IN THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING.
PARTIAL BUT NOT FULL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SERIES
OF UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES ALOFT PRODUCE VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS. THIS COUPLED WITH SW LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW OVERNIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW DROPPING TEMPERATURE TREND WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND LOW
TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND. LATEST LAV GUIDANCE HAS MINS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN FORECAST AND A FEW TWEAKS UPWARD ARE PLANNED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATE TO MIN TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP IT WARM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE
ONSLOW-PENDER COUNTY LINE FRI NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED AS IT STALLS OUT COMPLETELY. THE
FRONT SHOULD TEND TO LIFT BACK TO THE N AS THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY SW...AND S BELOW 5 KFT ON SAT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
A SHARP SEABREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ON
FRI...RETARDED SOMEWHAT BY THE RATHER DEEP...BUT WEAK...WESTERLY
FLOW. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE MUCH BETTER PROGRESS INLAND ON SAT
GIVEN THE PREVAILING FLOW.
IN TERMS OF HOW THIS WILL AFFECT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. IT WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI SHOULD BE WARMER THAN SAT GIVEN
THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED. EITHER WAY...BOTH DAYS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE
80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE. THE BEACHES AND NEARBY LOCATIONS WILL BE
WARMEST ON FRI...PERHAPS REACHING 80 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.
GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL LINGER AND DRY AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO
DISPLACE FRI...WILL INCLUDE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FRI EVE ACROSS PENDER AND BLADEN COUNTIES WHICH WILL
BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON SAT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. CAPE VALUES BECOME SIGNIFICANT...IN
EXCESS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...INDICATIVE OF GOOD INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW 7 DEG C/KM WHICH SHOULD
HINDER MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. STILL...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEABREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENHANCED
BY THE WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE
95. WILL CARRY UP TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH POPS DECREASING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE PUMPING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO
THE REGION. WHILE THIS TYPICALLY SUPPORTS TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION...THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE SUN/MON.
UPPER IMPULSE ROTATING SLOWLY AROUND BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL TRACK
NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN AND MON. THIS OCCURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS APPROACHING 1.8 INCHES...OR NEARLY 2 SD`S
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-MAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG...SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID
60S...SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BOTH SUN AND MON AFTN. ML LAPSE
RATES WILL BE ONLY MARGINAL HOWEVER...5-6 C/KM...SO WHILE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD...SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY.
BY TUESDAY...UPPER VORT SWINGS OFFSHORE LEAVING SOME SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IT IN CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES. WHILE
COLUMN REMAINS QUITE MOIST...OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASED ON TUESDAY...AND EVEN MORESO WED/THU WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING DUE TO THE
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
60S. A SLIGHT WARM UP MAY OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KTS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME SCT CU DURING
THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST FOLLOWING AFTN SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AFTER 00Z BEGINNING AT THE INLAND TERMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:45 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
SW WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING OVER NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FARTHER TO THE NE. THIS WILL LEAVE
A SW RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING INTO THE MORNING.
SEAS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF SSW WIND-CHOP AND
WEAK LONGER PERIOD SE WAVES. NO TSTMS OR FOG CONCERNS OVER THE
0-20NM WATERS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SSW TO SW THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PROXIMITY OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE SHOULD KEEP WINDS 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST N OF THE WATERS FRI NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
BACK TO THE N.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE CREATES PERSISTENT S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WHILE
MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN DIRECTION/SPEED ARE LIKELY DURING
THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED. EVEN THOUGH E/SE SWELL WILL SLOWLY GROW IN AMPLITUDE
WITH AN INCREASING PERIOD DURING THE EXTENDED...TO
2-3FT/10SEC...WAVES WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DOMINATED.
SEAS OF 2-4 FT CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH A S/SW WIND WAVE
OVERLAYING THE E/SE SWELL.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/RJD/JDW/RGZ
000
FXUS62 KILM 170108
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
908 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM THURSDAY...A MILD EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD UNDERWAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE PREVAILS. AIDING
THE MILD REGIME ARE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN IMPULSE
EVIDENT IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS MOVING E OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
CONVECTION WAS CONFINED MAINLY IN THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING.
PARTIAL BUT NOT FULL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SERIES
OF UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES ALOFT PRODUCE VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS. THIS COUPLED WITH SW LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW OVERNIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW DROPPING TEMPERATURE TREND WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND LOW
TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND. LATEST LAV GUIDANCE HAS MINS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN FORECAST AND A FEW TWEAKS UPWARD ARE PLANNED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATE TO MIN TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP IT WARM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE
ONSLOW-PENDER COUNTY LINE FRI NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED AS IT STALLS OUT COMPLETELY. THE
FRONT SHOULD TEND TO LIFT BACK TO THE N AS THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY SW...AND S BELOW 5 KFT ON SAT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
A SHARP SEABREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ON
FRI...RETARDED SOMEWHAT BY THE RATHER DEEP...BUT WEAK...WESTERLY
FLOW. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE MUCH BETTER PROGRESS INLAND ON SAT
GIVEN THE PREVAILING FLOW.
IN TERMS OF HOW THIS WILL AFFECT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. IT WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI SHOULD BE WARMER THAN SAT GIVEN
THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED. EITHER WAY...BOTH DAYS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE
80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE. THE BEACHES AND NEARBY LOCATIONS WILL BE
WARMEST ON FRI...PERHAPS REACHING 80 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.
GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL LINGER AND DRY AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO
DISPLACE FRI...WILL INCLUDE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FRI EVE ACROSS PENDER AND BLADEN COUNTIES WHICH WILL
BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON SAT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. CAPE VALUES BECOME SIGNIFICANT...IN
EXCESS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...INDICATIVE OF GOOD INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW 7 DEG C/KM WHICH SHOULD
HINDER MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. STILL...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEABREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENHANCED
BY THE WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE
95. WILL CARRY UP TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH POPS DECREASING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE PUMPING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO
THE REGION. WHILE THIS TYPICALLY SUPPORTS TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION...THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE SUN/MON.
UPPER IMPULSE ROTATING SLOWLY AROUND BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL TRACK
NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN AND MON. THIS OCCURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS APPROACHING 1.8 INCHES...OR NEARLY 2 SD`S
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-MAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG...SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID
60S...SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BOTH SUN AND MON AFTN. ML LAPSE
RATES WILL BE ONLY MARGINAL HOWEVER...5-6 C/KM...SO WHILE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD...SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY.
BY TUESDAY...UPPER VORT SWINGS OFFSHORE LEAVING SOME SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IT IN CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES. WHILE
COLUMN REMAINS QUITE MOIST...OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASED ON TUESDAY...AND EVEN MORESO WED/THU WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING DUE TO THE
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
60S. A SLIGHT WARM UP MAY OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN CIRRUS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT FOG FORMATION...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT/KFLO WHERE THE WINDS MAY BECOME
CALM/LIGHT JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. EXPECT VFR ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
SCT CU DURING THE DAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. ALONG THE
COAST...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY MID-AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH THESE TERMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FARTHER TO THE
NE. THIS WILL LEAVE A SW RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING
INTO THE MORNING. SEAS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF SSW
WIND-CHOP AND WEAK LONGER PERIOD SE WAVES. NO TSTMS OR FOG CONCERNS
OVER THE 0-20NM WATERS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SSW TO SW THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PROXIMITY OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE SHOULD KEEP WINDS 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST N OF THE WATERS FRI NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
BACK TO THE N.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE CREATES PERSISTENT S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WHILE
MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN DIRECTION/SPEED ARE LIKELY DURING
THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED. EVEN THOUGH E/SE SWELL WILL SLOWLY GROW IN AMPLITUDE
WITH AN INCREASING PERIOD DURING THE EXTENDED...TO
2-3FT/10SEC...WAVES WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DOMINATED.
SEAS OF 2-4 FT CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH A S/SW WIND WAVE
OVERLAYING THE E/SE SWELL.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
000
FXUS62 KILM 162328
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
728 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CREATE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DRIER AND CONTINUED WARM WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...VERY WARM SUMMER LIKE DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MOST PLACES. WILMINGTON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 90 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ALONG
WITH ELIZABETHTOWN AND FEW OTHER PLACES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA.
CLOUDS WERE SLIGHTLY THICKER OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
HELPING TO STABILIZE THE RISING TEMPS THERE AND KEEPING MOST TEMPS
JUST BELOW 90. A GREATER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS HELPED THE HEATING PROCESS AND KEPT SEA
BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS IT PENETRATED INLAND A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS DROPPED A FEW DEGREES RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD FILTERING
OUT THE SUN AT TIMES AND THE WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER. CLOUDS WERE
SLIGHTLY THICKER OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO
STABILIZE THE RISING TEMPS THERE.
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS
AND MOISTURE PROFILES...THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RISING. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THE WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE MID 60S MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP IT WARM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE
ONSLOW-PENDER COUNTY LINE FRI NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED AS IT STALLS OUT COMPLETELY. THE
FRONT SHOULD TEND TO LIFT BACK TO THE N AS THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY SW...AND S BELOW 5 KFT ON SAT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
A SHARP SEABREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ON
FRI...RETARDED SOMEWHAT BY THE RATHER DEEP...BUT WEAK...WESTERLY
FLOW. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE MUCH BETTER PROGRESS INLAND ON SAT
GIVEN THE PREVAILING FLOW.
IN TERMS OF HOW THIS WILL AFFECT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. IT WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI SHOULD BE WARMER THAN SAT GIVEN
THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED. EITHER WAY...BOTH DAYS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE
80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE. THE BEACHES AND NEARBY LOCATIONS WILL BE
WARMEST ON FRI...PERHAPS REACHING 80 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.
GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL LINGER AND DRY AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO
DISPLACE FRI...WILL INCLUDE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FRI EVE ACROSS PENDER AND BLADEN COUNTIES WHICH WILL
BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON SAT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. CAPE VALUES BECOME SIGNIFICANT...IN
EXCESS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...INDICATIVE OF GOOD INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW 7 DEG C/KM WHICH SHOULD
HINDER MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. STILL...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEABREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENHANCED
BY THE WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE
95. WILL CARRY UP TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH POPS DECREASING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE PUMPING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO
THE REGION. WHILE THIS TYPICALLY SUPPORTS TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION...THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE SUN/MON.
UPPER IMPULSE ROTATING SLOWLY AROUND BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL TRACK
NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN AND MON. THIS OCCURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS APPROACHING 1.8 INCHES...OR NEARLY 2 SD`S
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-MAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG...SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID
60S...SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BOTH SUN AND MON AFTN. ML LAPSE
RATES WILL BE ONLY MARGINAL HOWEVER...5-6 C/KM...SO WHILE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD...SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY.
BY TUESDAY...UPPER VORT SWINGS OFFSHORE LEAVING SOME SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IT IN CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES. WHILE
COLUMN REMAINS QUITE MOIST...OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASED ON TUESDAY...AND EVEN MORESO WED/THU WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING DUE TO THE
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
60S. A SLIGHT WARM UP MAY OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN CIRRUS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT FOG FORMATION...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT/KFLO WHERE THE WINDS MAY BECOME
CALM/LIGHT JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. EXPECT VFR ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
SCT CU DURING THE DAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. ALONG THE
COAST...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY MID-AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH THESE TERMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR OUR NC
WATERS THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR 3 TO 5 FT SEAS AND SW WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS. GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING OVER NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL LEAVE A SW RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING INTO
THE MORNING. SEAS OVER SC WATERS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
WITH SW WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SSW TO SW THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PROXIMITY OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE SHOULD KEEP WINDS 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST N OF THE WATERS FRI NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
BACK TO THE N.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE CREATES PERSISTENT S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WHILE
MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN DIRECTION/SPEED ARE LIKELY DURING
THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED. EVEN THOUGH E/SE SWELL WILL SLOWLY GROW IN AMPLITUDE
WITH AN INCREASING PERIOD DURING THE EXTENDED...TO
2-3FT/10SEC...WAVES WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DOMINATED.
SEAS OF 2-4 FT CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH A S/SW WIND WAVE
OVERLAYING THE E/SE SWELL.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...RJD/JDW/RGZ
000
FXUS62 KILM 161945
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
345 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CREATE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DRIER AND CONTINUED WARM WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...VERY WARM SUMMER LIKE DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MOST PLACES. WILMINGTON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 90 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ALONG
WITH ELIZABETHTOWN AND FEW OTHER PLACES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA.
CLOUDS WERE SLIGHTLY THICKER OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
HELPING TO STABILIZE THE RISING TEMPS THERE AND KEEPING MOST TEMPS
JUST BELOW 90. A GREATER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS HELPED THE HEATING PROCESS AND KEPT SEA
BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS IT PENETRATED INLAND A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS DROPPED A FEW DEGREES RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD FILTERING
OUT THE SUN AT TIMES AND THE WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER. CLOUDS WERE
SLIGHTLY THICKER OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO
STABILIZE THE RISING TEMPS THERE.
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS
AND MOISTURE PROFILES...THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RISING. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THE WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE MID 60S MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP IT WARM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE
ONSLOW-PENDER COUNTY LINE FRI NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED AS IT STALLS OUT COMPLETELY. THE
FRONT SHOULD TEND TO LIFT BACK TO THE N AS THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY SW...AND S BELOW 5 KFT ON SAT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
A SHARP SEABREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ON
FRI...RETARDED SOMEWHAT BY THE RATHER DEEP...BUT WEAK...WESTERLY
FLOW. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE MUCH BETTER PROGRESS INLAND ON SAT
GIVEN THE PREVAILING FLOW.
IN TERMS OF HOW THIS WILL AFFECT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. IT WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI SHOULD BE WARMER THAN SAT GIVEN
THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED. EITHER WAY...BOTH DAYS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE
80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE. THE BEACHES AND NEARBY LOCATIONS WILL BE
WARMEST ON FRI...PERHAPS REACHING 80 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.
GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL LINGER AND DRY AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO
DISPLACE FRI...WILL INCLUDE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FRI EVE ACROSS PENDER AND BLADEN COUNTIES WHICH WILL
BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON SAT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. CAPE VALUES BECOME SIGNIFICANT...IN
EXCESS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...INDICATIVE OF GOOD INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW 7 DEG C/KM WHICH SHOULD
HINDER MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. STILL...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEABREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENHANCED
BY THE WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE
95. WILL CARRY UP TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH POPS DECREASING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE PUMPING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO
THE REGION. WHILE THIS TYPICALLY SUPPORTS TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION...THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE SUN/MON.
UPPER IMPULSE ROTATING SLOWLY AROUND BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL TRACK
NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN AND MON. THIS OCCURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS APPROACHING 1.8 INCHES...OR NEARLY 2 SD`S
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-MAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG...SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID
60S...SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BOTH SUN AND MON AFTN. ML LAPSE
RATES WILL BE ONLY MARGINAL HOWEVER...5-6 C/KM...SO WHILE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD...SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY.
BY TUESDAY...UPPER VORT SWINGS OFFSHORE LEAVING SOME SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IT IN CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES. WHILE
COLUMN REMAINS QUITE MOIST...OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASED ON TUESDAY...AND EVEN MORESO WED/THU WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING DUE TO THE
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
60S. A SLIGHT WARM UP MAY OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
CIRRUS OPACITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BECOMING BKN IN NATURE...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...BKN/OVC SKY COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT...WITH FEW
MID CLOUDS AROUND IN THE MORNING AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR OUR NC
WATERS THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR 3 TO 5 FT SEAS AND SW WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS. GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING OVER NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL LEAVE A SW RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING INTO
THE MORNING. SEAS OVER SC WATERS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
WITH SW WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SSW TO SW THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PROXIMITY OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE SHOULD KEEP WINDS 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST N OF THE WATERS FRI NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
BACK TO THE N.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE CREATES PERSISTENT S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WHILE
MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN DIRECTION/SPEED ARE LIKELY DURING
THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED. EVEN THOUGH E/SE SWELL WILL SLOWLY GROW IN AMPLITUDE
WITH AN INCREASING PERIOD DURING THE EXTENDED...TO
2-3FT/10SEC...WAVES WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DOMINATED.
SEAS OF 2-4 FT CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH A S/SW WIND WAVE
OVERLAYING THE E/SE SWELL.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/SGL
MARINE...RJD/JDW/RGZ
000
FXUS62 KILM 161733
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
133 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM THURSDAY...WITH A MUCH WARMER START THIS
MORNING...TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THE SAME TIME. ON TRACK FOR A VERY WARM SUMMER LIKE DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MOST PLACES. A
GREATER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW
LEVELS WILL HELP THE HEATING PROCESS AND SHOULD KEEP SEA BREEZE
PINNED ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. UNLIKE YESTERDAY THOUGH...THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVERHEAD TO FILTER OUT THE SUN AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AS GRADIENT RELAXES BUT MAY
BECOME PINCHED SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
INLAND. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES...THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH ONLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT...MAINLY ABOVE H30. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND KEEPING ANY PCP WEST OF FORECAST AREA.
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WARM MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL KEEP ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPS WARMER
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS THE FORECAST FOCUS TO SURFACE FEATURES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY PIEDMONT TROUGH AND BERMUDA HIGH
WILL BE THE KEY FEATURES...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...BUT
WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL NC LATE FRI.
AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF NO LONGER BRINGS IT SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND
THE GFS HAS REMAINING CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE
AREA. LATEST NAM/CANADIAN ALSO SUPPORT KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE A VERY LIMITED IMPACT
ON THE REGION CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN
OUTFLOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE WILL
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND
WESTERLY FLOW ON FRI WILL HINDER AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS WELL AS
KEEP SEABREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE MENTIONABLE POP
BUT TRIM BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. SAT APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNING ON SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB TO 1.5 INCH BY MIDDAY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A
LITTLE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DIURNAL CHC POP.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI WILL LIKELY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SAT GIVEN MORE CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXPECTED
ALONG WITH FURTHER INLAND PENETRATION OF SEABREEZE. LOWS IN THE MID
60S ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ILL DEFINED MID LEVEL PATTERN AND WEAK SURFACE
FEATURES LEAD TO A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
SETS UP AND THEN STRENGTHENS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PUMP PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5
INCH FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND APPROACH 2 INCHES AT TIMES.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST...HINDERING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
CIRRUS OPACITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BECOMING BKN IN NATURE...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...BKN/OVC SKY COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT...WITH FEW
MID CLOUDS AROUND IN THE MORNING AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM THURSDAY...KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR OUR
NC WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR 3 TO 5 FT SEAS AND SW WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS. SEAS FOR OUR SC WATERS ARE MORE IN THE 2 TO
4 FT RANGE WITH SW WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KT. WINDS JUST BEYOND OUR
LOCAL WATERS OUT BEYOND 20 NM WERE UP CLOSER TO 25 KT BUT WITHIN
WATERS JUST SEEING 15 TO 20 KTS MAX. HAVE ADDED HIGHER GUSTS TO
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCE.
SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT FRI WILL LEAD TO WIND SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15
KT WHILE ON SAT 10 TO 15 KT IS MORE LIKELY. THERE WILL BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE FRI. AT THIS
POINT THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WATERS BUT
SHOULD IT DROP FARTHER SOUTH WINDS WOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SAT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI MAY SUBSIDE
A LITTLE FOR SAT...DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUMMER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH BERMUDA HIGH THE
MAIN FEATURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT BOTH DAYS. SPEEDS MON MAY BE
MARGINALLY HIGHER AS GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2
TO 3 FT ON SUN EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT MON IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASE IN SPEEDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
000
FXUS62 KILM 161526
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1126 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM THURSDAY...WITH A MUCH WARMER START THIS
MORNING...TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THE SAME TIME. ON TRACK FOR A VERY WARM SUMMER LIKE DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MOST PLACES. A
GREATER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW
LEVELS WILL HELP THE HEATING PROCESS AND SHOULD KEEP SEA BREEZE
PINNED ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. UNLIKE YESTERDAY THOUGH...THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVERHEAD TO FILTER OUT THE SUN AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE LEFT FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST DOWN A BIT
IF CLOUD COVERAGE IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT IT.
WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY BUT WILL BE GUSTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. GRADIENT WILL RELAX BUT
MAY BECOME PINCHED SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE
PROFILES...THE LOW TO MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH ONLY UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...MAINLY ABOVE H30. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND KEEPING ANY PCP WEST OF
FORECAST AREA.
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WARM MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL KEEP ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPS WARMER
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS THE FORECAST FOCUS TO SURFACE FEATURES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY PIEDMONT TROUGH AND BERMUDA HIGH
WILL BE THE KEY FEATURES...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...BUT
WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL NC LATE FRI.
AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF NO LONGER BRINGS IT SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND
THE GFS HAS REMAINING CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE
AREA. LATEST NAM/CANADIAN ALSO SUPPORT KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE A VERY LIMITED IMPACT
ON THE REGION CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN
OUTFLOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE WILL
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND
WESTERLY FLOW ON FRI WILL HINDER AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS WELL AS
KEEP SEABREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE MENTIONABLE POP
BUT TRIM BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. SAT APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNING ON SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB TO 1.5 INCH BY MIDDAY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A
LITTLE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DIURNAL CHC POP.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI WILL LIKELY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SAT GIVEN MORE CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXPECTED
ALONG WITH FURTHER INLAND PENETRATION OF SEABREEZE. LOWS IN THE MID
60S ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ILL DEFINED MID LEVEL PATTERN AND WEAK SURFACE
FEATURES LEAD TO A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
SETS UP AND THEN STRENGTHENS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PUMP PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5
INCH FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND APPROACH 2 INCHES AT TIMES.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST...HINDERING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. QUIET
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS CIRRUS WILL BECOME SCT IN NATURE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH FEW DIURNAL CU...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. AS FOR CLOUD COVER...ANTICIPATE
COVERAGE TO INCREASE TO BKN/OVC OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SCT BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED ON TIME AT
6 AM. WINDS JUST BEYOND OUR LOCAL WATERS OUT BEYOND 20 NM WERE UP
CLOSER TO 25 KT BUT WITHIN WATERS JUST SEEING 15 TO 20 KTS MAX.
HAVE ADDED HIGHER GUSTS TO FORECAST. KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR OUR NC WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS AND SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS. SEAS FOR OUR SC WATERS ARE
MORE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH SW WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCE.
SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT FRI WILL LEAD TO WIND SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15
KT WHILE ON SAT 10 TO 15 KT IS MORE LIKELY. THERE WILL BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE FRI. AT THIS
POINT THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WATERS BUT
SHOULD IT DROP FARTHER SOUTH WINDS WOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SAT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI MAY SUBSIDE
A LITTLE FOR SAT...DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUMMER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH BERMUDA HIGH THE
MAIN FEATURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT BOTH DAYS. SPEEDS MON MAY BE
MARGINALLY HIGHER AS GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2
TO 3 FT ON SUN EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT MON IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASE IN SPEEDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
000
FXUS62 KILM 161128
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
728 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE
AND A PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP UP A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES...GIVING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEA BREEZE FRONT PINNED NEAR
THE COAST AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE ODD POP-UP SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ODDS ARE SO LOW THAT THERE WILL BE
NO MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS THE FORECAST FOCUS TO SURFACE FEATURES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY PIEDMONT TROUGH AND BERMUDA HIGH
WILL BE THE KEY FEATURES...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...BUT
WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL NC LATE FRI.
AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF NO LONGER BRINGS IT SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND
THE GFS HAS REMAINING CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE
AREA. LATEST NAM/CANADIAN ALSO SUPPORT KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE A VERY LIMITED IMPACT
ON THE REGION CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN
OUTFLOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE WILL
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND
WESTERLY FLOW ON FRI WILL HINDER AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS WELL AS
KEEP SEABREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE MENTIONABLE POP
BUT TRIM BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. SAT APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNING ON SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB TO 1.5 INCH BY MIDDAY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A
LITTLE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DIURNAL CHC POP.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI WILL LIKELY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SAT GIVEN MORE CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXPECTED
ALONG WITH FURTHER INLAND PENETRATION OF SEABREEZE. LOWS IN THE MID
60S ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ILL DEFINED MID LEVEL PATTERN AND WEAK SURFACE
FEATURES LEAD TO A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
SETS UP AND THEN STRENGTHENS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PUMP PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5
INCH FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND APPROACH 2 INCHES AT TIMES.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST...HINDERING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. QUIET
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS CIRRUS WILL BECOME SCT IN NATURE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH FEW DIURNAL CU...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. AS FOR CLOUD COVER...ANTICIPATE
COVERAGE TO INCREASE TO BKN/OVC OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SCT BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED ON TIME
AT 6 AM. BASED ON LATEST OBS AND FORECAST HAVE RAISED EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES TODAY FOR OUR NC WATERS FOR 3 TO 5 FT SEAS AND
SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS. SEAS FOR OUR SC WATERS ARE MORE IN
THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCE.
SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT FRI WILL LEAD TO WIND SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15
KT WHILE ON SAT 10 TO 15 KT IS MORE LIKELY. THERE WILL BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE FRI. AT THIS
POINT THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WATERS BUT
SHOULD IT DROP FARTHER SOUTH WINDS WOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SAT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI MAY SUBSIDE
A LITTLE FOR SAT...DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUMMER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH BERMUDA HIGH THE
MAIN FEATURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT BOTH DAYS. SPEEDS MON MAY BE
MARGINALLY HIGHER AS GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2
TO 3 FT ON SUN EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT MON IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASE IN SPEEDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/III
000
FXUS62 KILM 161015
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE
AND A PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP UP A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES...GIVING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEA BREEZE FRONT PINNED NEAR
THE COAST AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE ODD POP-UP SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ODDS ARE SO LOW THAT THERE WILL BE
NO MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS THE FORECAST FOCUS TO SURFACE FEATURES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY PIEDMONT TROUGH AND BERMUDA HIGH
WILL BE THE KEY FEATURES...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...BUT
WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL NC LATE FRI.
AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF NO LONGER BRINGS IT SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND
THE GFS HAS REMAINING CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE
AREA. LATEST NAM/CANADIAN ALSO SUPPORT KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE A VERY LIMITED IMPACT
ON THE REGION CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN
OUTFLOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE WILL
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND
WESTERLY FLOW ON FRI WILL HINDER AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS WELL AS
KEEP SEABREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE MENTIONABLE POP
BUT TRIM BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. SAT APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNING ON SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB TO 1.5 INCH BY MIDDAY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A
LITTLE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DIURNAL CHC POP.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI WILL LIKELY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SAT GIVEN MORE CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXPECTED
ALONG WITH FURTHER INLAND PENETRATION OF SEABREEZE. LOWS IN THE MID
60S ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ILL DEFINED MID LEVEL PATTERN AND WEAK SURFACE
FEATURES LEAD TO A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
SETS UP AND THEN STRENGTHENS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PUMP PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5
INCH FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND APPROACH 2 INCHES AT TIMES.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST...HINDERING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BECOMING 10-15 KTS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 KTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. OTHER THAN SOME SCT CIRRUS AFTER 18Z...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z BUT REMAIN 5-10 KTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE TO
OUR WEST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED ON TIME
AT 6 AM. BASED ON LATEST OBS AND FORECAST HAVE RAISED EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES TODAY FOR OUR NC WATERS FOR 3 TO 5 FT SEAS AND
SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS. SEAS FOR OUR SC WATERS ARE MORE IN
THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCE.
SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT FRI WILL LEAD TO WIND SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15
KT WHILE ON SAT 10 TO 15 KT IS MORE LIKELY. THERE WILL BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE FRI. AT THIS
POINT THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WATERS BUT
SHOULD IT DROP FARTHER SOUTH WINDS WOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SAT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI MAY SUBSIDE
A LITTLE FOR SAT...DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUMMER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH BERMUDA HIGH THE
MAIN FEATURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT BOTH DAYS. SPEEDS MON MAY BE
MARGINALLY HIGHER AS GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2
TO 3 FT ON SUN EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT MON IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASE IN SPEEDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/III
000
FXUS62 KILM 160714
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
314 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND A PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING INLAND. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP UP A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TEMPERATURES...GIVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
SEA BREEZE FRONT PINNED NEAR THE COAST AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME
CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE ODD POP-UP
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ODDS ARE SO
LOW THAT THERE WILL BE NO MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TODAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS THE FORECAST FOCUS TO SURFACE FEATURES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY PIEDMONT TROUGH AND BERMUDA HIGH
WILL BE THE KEY FEATURES...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...BUT
WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL NC LATE FRI.
AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF NO LONGER BRINGS IT SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND
THE GFS HAS REMAINING CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE
AREA. LATEST NAM/CANADIAN ALSO SUPPORT KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE A VERY LIMITED IMPACT
ON THE REGION CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN
OUTFLOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE WILL
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND
WESTERLY FLOW ON FRI WILL HINDER AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS WELL AS
KEEP SEABREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE MENTIONABLE POP
BUT TRIM BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. SAT APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNING ON SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB TO 1.5 INCH BY MIDDAY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A
LITTLE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DIURNAL CHC POP.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI WILL LIKELY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SAT GIVEN MORE CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXPECTED
ALONG WITH FURTHER INLAND PENETRATION OF SEABREEZE. LOWS IN THE MID
60S ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ILL DEFINED MID LEVEL PATTERN AND WEAK SURFACE
FEATURES LEAD TO A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
SETS UP AND THEN STRENGTHENS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PUMP PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5
INCH FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND APPROACH 2 INCHES AT TIMES.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST...HINDERING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BECOMING 10-15 KTS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 KTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. OTHER THAN SOME SCT CIRRUS AFTER 18Z...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z BUT REMAIN 5-10 KTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE TO
OUR WEST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM AS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS. A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT THIS MORNING WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SUBSIDE A BIT THOUGH...WITH SEAS DROPPING INTO THE
3 TO 5 FT RANGE BY DAYBREAK AND 2 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCE.
SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT FRI WILL LEAD TO WIND SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15
KT WHILE ON SAT 10 TO 15 KT IS MORE LIKELY. THERE WILL BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE FRI. AT THIS
POINT THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WATERS BUT
SHOULD IT DROP FARTHER SOUTH WINDS WOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SAT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI MAY SUBSIDE
A LITTLE FOR SAT...DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUMMER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH BERMUDA HIGH THE
MAIN FEATURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT BOTH DAYS. SPEEDS MON MAY BE
MARGINALLY HIGHER AS GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2
TO 3 FT ON SUN EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT MON IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASE IN SPEEDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR
000
FXUS62 KILM 160551
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
151 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:45 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TROUGH RUNNING DOWN
THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OFF SHORE.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UP AS 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
A TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. WINDS WILL HELP KEEP A FLOW OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS RISING UP CLOSE TO
60 F BY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING ABOVE 60 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WARM ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
PERIOD. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS
VIRGINIA THU AND THU NIGHT AND THEN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT SHOULD GET HUNG UP N OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...PERHAPS GETTING CLOSE TO THE ONSLOW-PENDER COUNTY LINE BY SAT
MORNING AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED.
IN TERMS OF HOW THIS WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING WELL UP INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS.
A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY AGAIN TOUCH 90 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE ON THU. THE SEABREEZE WILL BE PINNED
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. THUS...
EVEN THE BEACHES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER AND COASTAL
BRUNSWICK COUNTIES WHERE MARINE INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS
CLOSER TO 80 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL...
MID AND UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON.
THIS SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW 15 KFT AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERS ALOFT. THE DEEP AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONFIDENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT. ON FRI...THE DRY AIR SHRINKS...CONFINED
TO THE LOWEST 5-6 KFT OF THE COLUMN. THUS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FEATURES...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE MAY BE
GREATEST ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WHERE THERE
WILL BE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE. WANING CONVECTION TO OUR N...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...MAY APPROACH THE AREA
FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. WHILE THIS LEAVES WARM S/SW RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WITH A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT STALLING VERY NEAR THE CWA. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THANKS TO
RETURN FLOW IMPEDING ITS SOUTHERN MOTION...AND THE FACT THAT WE
ARE MOVING BEYOND THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PERIOD FOR BACK
DOOR COLD FRONTS TO SINK THIS FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...A SLOW MOVING
VORT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE OVER-
TOP THE STALLED BOUNDARY...INCREASING RAIN/CONVECTION CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THIS REASON THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN POP
AND TEMPS...SINCE IF THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE CWA MAX TEMPS WILL
LOWER...AND POP WILL INCREASE. WITH BEST SUPPORT FOR FRONT
REMAINING NORTH...WILL KEEP INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. LATE IN THE PERIOD...5H
HEIGHTS REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BECOMING 10-15 KTS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 KTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. OTHER THAN SOME SCT CIRRUS AFTER 18Z...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z BUT REMAIN 5-10 KTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE TO
OUR WEST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:45 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING.
WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A STEADY DECREASE
THEREAFTER AS GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT WITH A CONTINUED SW TO W FLOW
OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS RIDGE WILL
HELP KEEP SOME GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD FRI AND FRI NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR N THROUGH SAT MORNING. SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER ON THU
GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS COMPARED TO FRI.
WILL FORECAST 15 TO 20 KT THU AND 10 TO 15 KT ON FRI. EXPECT 3 TO 4
FT SEAS ON THU TO SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT FOR FRI.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE PUMPING S/SW RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS. WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE TRYING TO
SAG SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ATTM DO NOT EXPECT ANY VEERING OF WINDS EVEN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF AMZ250...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES. WHILE THE FRONT STAYS NORTH...S/SW WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 10
KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS ON MONDAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BE
COMMON DURING THE WKND...GROWING TO 2-4 FT MONDAY THANKS TO THE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/RJD/JDW/RGZ
000
FXUS62 KILM 160234
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1034 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z WEATHER BALLOON FROM MOREHEAD CITY
SHOWS VERY CLEARLY THE LOW-LEVEL JET THAT IS DEVELOPING OVERHEAD.
WINDS AT 1000 FT AGL WERE MEASURED AT 36 KNOTS...OVER 40 MPH! ALL
THIS MOMENTUM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FAIRLY WELL MIXED TONIGHT DESPITE OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS: LOWER 60S INLAND WITH MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
MY LARGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO RAISE WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE
COAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BY 5 MPH OR SO. IT WILL TAKE AWHILE
FOR THE SEABREEZE TO "WIND DOWN" GIVEN VERY LARGE TEMPERATURE
CONTRASTS THAT FUELED IT THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO I HAVE RAISED LOWS BY
A DEGREE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE IT APPEARS A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER RATHER
WELL STIRRED FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ANY OTHER CHANGES ARE VERY
MINOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...
BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
TO THE NORTH. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS GUSTING
OVER 20 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPS WILL RISE UP TO 18C AS
MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. PCP WATER VALUES AROUND .75
INCHES DO INCREASE ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM TO THE NORTH REACHES DOWN OVER THE
RIDGE INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA...BUT OVERALL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEA
BREEZE WILL COME AGAINST STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND BUT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
IN FROM THE BEACHES LATER THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING LATE AFTERNOON
TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES CLOSE TO THE COAST.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS AND
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OFF SHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN UP TO 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. THESE WINDS WILL HELP KEEP A FLOW OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS RISING UP
CLOSE TO 60 F BY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING ABOVE 60
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WARM ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
PERIOD. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS
VIRGINIA THU AND THU NIGHT AND THEN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT SHOULD GET HUNG UP N OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...PERHAPS GETTING CLOSE TO THE ONSLOW-PENDER COUNTY LINE BY SAT
MORNING AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED.
IN TERMS OF HOW THIS WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING WELL UP INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS.
A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY AGAIN TOUCH 90 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE ON THU. THE SEABREEZE WILL BE PINNED
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. THUS...
EVEN THE BEACHES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER AND COASTAL
BRUNSWICK COUNTIES WHERE MARINE INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS
CLOSER TO 80 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL...
MID AND UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON.
THIS SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW 15 KFT AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERS ALOFT. THE DEEP AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONFIDENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT. ON FRI...THE DRY AIR SHRINKS...CONFINED
TO THE LOWEST 5-6 KFT OF THE COLUMN. THUS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FEATURES...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE MAY BE
GREATEST ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WHERE THERE
WILL BE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE. WANING CONVECTION TO OUR N...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...MAY APPROACH THE AREA
FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. WHILE THIS LEAVES WARM S/SW RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WITH A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT STALLING VERY NEAR THE CWA. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THANKS TO
RETURN FLOW IMPEDING ITS SOUTHERN MOTION...AND THE FACT THAT WE
ARE MOVING BEYOND THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PERIOD FOR BACK
DOOR COLD FRONTS TO SINK THIS FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...A SLOW MOVING
VORT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE OVER-
TOP THE STALLED BOUNDARY...INCREASING RAIN/CONVECTION CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THIS REASON THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN POP
AND TEMPS...SINCE IF THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE CWA MAX TEMPS WILL
LOWER...AND POP WILL INCREASE. WITH BEST SUPPORT FOR FRONT
REMAINING NORTH...WILL KEEP INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. LATE IN THE PERIOD...5H
HEIGHTS REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CAROLINAS. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WINDS SHOULD INHIBIT
ANY OVERNIGHT FOG FORMATION. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS ON
THURSDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCT CIRRUS IN THE AFTN HOURS. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE VERY CLOSE TO
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST VALUES AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED.
LATEST MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL VEERING OF WIND DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS TURNING ALMOST WESTERLY BY DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
ON THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE I HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS BY UP TO 5
KNOTS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE A STRONG SEABREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO WIND DOWN GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE
GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS AT VIRTUALLY EVERY BEACH REPORTING STATION
FROM MYRTLE BEACH THROUGH BALD HEAD ISLAND TO WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND
TOPSAIL ISLAND. CURRENT SEAS MATCHED LATEST FORECASTS CLOSELY AND NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY THERE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF SHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING WINDS AND
SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 6AM THURS
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH A STEADY DECREASE THEREAFTER AS GRADIENT RELAXES A
BIT WITH CONTINUED SW TO W FLOW 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS RIDGE WILL
HELP KEEP SOME GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD FRI AND FRI NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR N THROUGH SAT MORNING. SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER ON THU
GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS COMPARED TO FRI.
WILL FORECAST 15 TO 20 KT THU AND 10 TO 15 KT ON FRI. EXPECT 3 TO 4
FT SEAS ON THU TO SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT FOR FRI.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE PUMPING S/SW RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS. WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE TRYING TO
SAG SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ATTM DO NOT EXPECT ANY VEERING OF WINDS EVEN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF AMZ250...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES. WHILE THE FRONT STAYS NORTH...S/SW WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 10
KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS ON MONDAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BE
COMMON DURING THE WKND...GROWING TO 2-4 FT MONDAY THANKS TO THE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
000
FXUS62 KILM 152321
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
721 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...MY LARGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
RAISE WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BY 5 MPH
OR SO. IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE SEABREEZE TO "WIND DOWN" GIVEN
VERY LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS THAT FUELED IT THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
I HAVE RAISED LOWS BY A DEGREE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
WHERE IT APPEARS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RATHER WELL STIRRED FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ANY OTHER
CHANGES ARE VERY MINOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...
BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
TO THE NORTH. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS GUSTING
OVER 20 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPS WILL RISE UP TO 18C AS
MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. PCP WATER VALUES AROUND .75
INCHES DO INCREASE ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM TO THE NORTH REACHES DOWN OVER THE
RIDGE INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA...BUT OVERALL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEA
BREEZE WILL COME AGAINST STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND BUT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
IN FROM THE BEACHES LATER THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING LATE AFTERNOON
TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES CLOSE TO THE COAST.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS AND
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OFF SHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN UP TO 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. THESE WINDS WILL HELP KEEP A FLOW OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS RISING UP
CLOSE TO 60 F BY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING ABOVE 60
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WARM ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
PERIOD. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS
VIRGINIA THU AND THU NIGHT AND THEN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT SHOULD GET HUNG UP N OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...PERHAPS GETTING CLOSE TO THE ONSLOW-PENDER COUNTY LINE BY SAT
MORNING AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED.
IN TERMS OF HOW THIS WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING WELL UP INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS.
A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY AGAIN TOUCH 90 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE ON THU. THE SEABREEZE WILL BE PINNED
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. THUS...
EVEN THE BEACHES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER AND COASTAL
BRUNSWICK COUNTIES WHERE MARINE INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS
CLOSER TO 80 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL...
MID AND UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON.
THIS SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW 15 KFT AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERS ALOFT. THE DEEP AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONFIDENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT. ON FRI...THE DRY AIR SHRINKS...CONFINED
TO THE LOWEST 5-6 KFT OF THE COLUMN. THUS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FEATURES...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE MAY BE
GREATEST ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WHERE THERE
WILL BE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE. WANING CONVECTION TO OUR N...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...MAY APPROACH THE AREA
FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. WHILE THIS LEAVES WARM S/SW RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WITH A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT STALLING VERY NEAR THE CWA. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THANKS TO
RETURN FLOW IMPEDING ITS SOUTHERN MOTION...AND THE FACT THAT WE
ARE MOVING BEYOND THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PERIOD FOR BACK
DOOR COLD FRONTS TO SINK THIS FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...A SLOW MOVING
VORT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE OVER-
TOP THE STALLED BOUNDARY...INCREASING RAIN/CONVECTION CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THIS REASON THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN POP
AND TEMPS...SINCE IF THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE CWA MAX TEMPS WILL
LOWER...AND POP WILL INCREASE. WITH BEST SUPPORT FOR FRONT
REMAINING NORTH...WILL KEEP INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. LATE IN THE PERIOD...5H
HEIGHTS REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CAROLINAS. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WINDS SHOULD INHIBIT
ANY OVERNIGHT FOG FORMATION. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS ON
THURSDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCT CIRRUS IN THE AFTN HOURS. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...ON THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE I HAVE RAISED
WIND SPEEDS BY UP TO 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE A STRONG
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO WIND DOWN
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS ARE GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS AT VIRTUALLY EVERY BEACH
REPORTING STATION FROM MYRTLE BEACH THROUGH BALD HEAD ISLAND TO
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND TOPSAIL ISLAND. CURRENT SEAS MATCHED LATEST
FORECASTS CLOSELY AND NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY THERE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF SHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING WINDS AND
SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 6AM THURS
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH A STEADY DECREASE THEREAFTER AS GRADIENT RELAXES A
BIT WITH CONTINUED SW TO W FLOW 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS RIDGE WILL
HELP KEEP SOME GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD FRI AND FRI NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR N THROUGH SAT MORNING. SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER ON THU
GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS COMPARED TO FRI.
WILL FORECAST 15 TO 20 KT THU AND 10 TO 15 KT ON FRI. EXPECT 3 TO 4
FT SEAS ON THU TO SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT FOR FRI.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE PUMPING S/SW RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS. WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE TRYING TO
SAG SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ATTM DO NOT EXPECT ANY VEERING OF WINDS EVEN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF AMZ250...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES. WHILE THE FRONT STAYS NORTH...S/SW WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 10
KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS ON MONDAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BE
COMMON DURING THE WKND...GROWING TO 2-4 FT MONDAY THANKS TO THE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
000
FXUS62 KILM 151923
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. 850
TEMPS WILL RISE UP TO 18C AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PCP WATER VALUES AROUND .75 INCHES DO INCREASE ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
REACHES DOWN OVER THE RIDGE INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...BUT OVERALL EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEA BREEZE WILL COME AGAINST STRONG SOUTHWEST
WIND BUT WILL MAKE ITS WAY IN FROM THE BEACHES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES CLOSE TO THE
COAST.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS AND
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OFF SHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN UP TO 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. THESE WINDS WILL HELP KEEP A FLOW OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS RISING UP
CLOSE TO 60 F BY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING ABOVE 60
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WARM ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
PERIOD. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS
VIRGINIA THU AND THU NIGHT AND THEN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT SHOULD GET HUNG UP N OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...PERHAPS GETTING CLOSE TO THE ONSLOW-PENDER COUNTY LINE BY SAT
MORNING AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED.
IN TERMS OF HOW THIS WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING WELL UP INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS.
A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY AGAIN TOUCH 90 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE ON THU. THE SEABREEZE WILL BE PINNED
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. THUS...
EVEN THE BEACHES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER AND COASTAL
BRUNSWICK COUNTIES WHERE MARINE INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS
CLOSER TO 80 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL...
MID AND UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON.
THIS SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW 15 KFT AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERS ALOFT. THE DEEP AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONFIDENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT. ON FRI...THE DRY AIR SHRINKS...CONFINED
TO THE LOWEST 5-6 KFT OF THE COLUMN. THUS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FEATURES...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE MAY BE
GREATEST ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WHERE THERE
WILL BE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE. WANING CONVECTION TO OUR N...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...MAY APPROACH THE AREA
FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. WHILE THIS LEAVES WARM S/SW RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WITH A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT STALLING VERY NEAR THE CWA. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THANKS TO
RETURN FLOW IMPEDING ITS SOUTHERN MOTION...AND THE FACT THAT WE
ARE MOVING BEYOND THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PERIOD FOR BACK
DOOR COLD FRONTS TO SINK THIS FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...A SLOW MOVING
VORT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE OVER-
TOP THE STALLED BOUNDARY...INCREASING RAIN/CONVECTION CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THIS REASON THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN POP
AND TEMPS...SINCE IF THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE CWA MAX TEMPS WILL
LOWER...AND POP WILL INCREASE. WITH BEST SUPPORT FOR FRONT
REMAINING NORTH...WILL KEEP INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. LATE IN THE PERIOD...5H
HEIGHTS REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL STAY THERE. ANY CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TO THE NORTH ALSO. STRONG SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DIURNALLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 10 KTS ALL
NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH DRY MOISTURE PROFILES WILL KEEP FOG AT
BAY. THURSDAY...CONTINUED VFR WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND...NOT
AS STRONG AS TODAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFF SHORE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 6AM THURS
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH A STEADY DECREASE THEREAFTER AS GRADIENT RELAXES A
BIT WITH CONTINUED SW TO W FLOW 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS RIDGE WILL
HELP KEEP SOME GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD FRI AND FRI NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR N THROUGH SAT MORNING. SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER ON THU
GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS COMPARED TO FRI.
WILL FORECAST 15 TO 20 KT THU AND 10 TO 15 KT ON FRI. EXPECT 3 TO 4
FT SEAS ON THU TO SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT FOR FRI.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE PUMPING S/SW RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS. WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE TRYING TO
SAG SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ATTM DO NOT EXPECT ANY VEERING OF WINDS EVEN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF AMZ250...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES. WHILE THE FRONT STAYS NORTH...S/SW WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 10
KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS ON MONDAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BE
COMMON DURING THE WKND...GROWING TO 2-4 FT MONDAY THANKS TO THE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL
000
FXUS62 KILM 151848
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
210 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. 850
TEMPS WILL RISE UP TO 18C AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PCP WATER VALUES AROUND .75 INCHES DO INCREASE ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
REACHES DOWN OVER THE RIDGE INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...BUT OVERALL EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEA BREEZE WILL COME AGAINST STRONG SOUTHWEST
WIND BUT WILL MAKE ITS WAY IN FROM THE BEACHES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES CLOSE TO THE
COAST.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS AND
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OFF SHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN UP TO 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. THESE WINDS WILL HELP KEEP A FLOW OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS RISING UP
CLOSE TO 60 F BY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING ABOVE 60
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXITING TO THE EAST
THU WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK TROUGHING FRI. DO NOT THINK PRECIP
WILL BE AN ISSUE ON THU DESPITE THE EXITING 5H RIDGE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT DRY AIR BELOW 15K FT ALONG WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE 15K FT LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD.
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD AS A SUMMER TIME PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA WHILE AT THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURES. WEAK FORCING ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SO DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
EXTENSIVE BUT LOW CHC POP IS PROBABLY WARRANTED WELL INLAND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THU WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP SEABREEZE PINNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONTINUE TO BE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IN THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR THIS IS LESS LIKELY. ECMWF
INSISTS ON PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT THE
GFS KEEPS IT STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE GFS HAS BEEN
MARGINALLY BETTER THAN THE ECMWF RECENTLY AND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
LIKELIHOOD OF THE FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA HAVE FAVORED THE
GFS SOLUTION. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS WEAK BUT PROGRESSIVE WITH
SOME AMPLIFICATION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOCALLY THE CONCERN WILL BE DIURNAL CONVECTION ON
BOTH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEABREEZE. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS LATE IN THE PERIOD SUBSIDENCE FROM 5H RIDGE
PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST WORKS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL STAY THERE. ANY CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TO THE NORTH ALSO. STRONG SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTING OVER 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DIURNALLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 10 KTS ALL NIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH DRY MOISTURE PROFILES WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY.
THURSDAY...CONTINUED VFR WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND...NOT AS
STRONG AS TODAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF
SHORE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING
WINDS AND SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 6AM THURS
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH A STEADY DECREASE THEREAFTER AS GRADIENT RELAXES A
BIT WITH CONTINUED SW TO W FLOW 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND WEST SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
STARTS OUT 15 TO 20 KT BUT AS SURFACE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES THU
AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 15 KT. REDUCTION IN SPEEDS CONTINUES INTO
FRI WITH 10 TO 15 KT BY DAYBREAK. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH BERMUDA HIGH THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE.
BORDERLINE SCA SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MAY REQUIRE EXTENSION
OF HEADLINES THROUGH THU MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY SEAS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5
FT...FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FT FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH COMBO WILL
KEEP WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 KT...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE
DEFINED AND SEABREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...A MIX OF
WIND WAVE AND SOUTHERLY SWELL.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL/RGZ
000
FXUS62 KILM 151810
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
210 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE EAST AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
850 TEMPS WILL RISE UP TO 18C AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. PCP WATER VALUES AROUND .75 INCHES DO INCREASE ABOVE
AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH REACHES DOWN OVER THE RIDGE INTO NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA...BUT OVERALL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEA BREEZE
WILL COME AGAINST STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND BUT WILL MAKE ITS WAY IN
FROM THE BEACHES LATER THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING LATE AFTERNOON
TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES CLOSE TO THE COAST.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS AND
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OFF SHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN UP TO 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. THESE WINDS WILL HELP KEEP A FLOW OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS RISING UP
CLOSE TO 60 F BY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING ABOVE 60
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXITING TO THE EAST
THU WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK TROUGHING FRI. DO NOT THINK PRECIP
WILL BE AN ISSUE ON THU DESPITE THE EXITING 5H RIDGE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT DRY AIR BELOW 15K FT ALONG WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE 15K FT LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD.
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD AS A SUMMER TIME PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA WHILE AT THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURES. WEAK FORCING ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SO DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
EXTENSIVE BUT LOW CHC POP IS PROBABLY WARRANTED WELL INLAND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THU WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP SEABREEZE PINNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONTINUE TO BE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IN THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR THIS IS LESS LIKELY. ECMWF
INSISTS ON PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT THE
GFS KEEPS IT STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE GFS HAS BEEN
MARGINALLY BETTER THAN THE ECMWF RECENTLY AND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
LIKELIHOOD OF THE FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA HAVE FAVORED THE
GFS SOLUTION. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS WEAK BUT PROGRESSIVE WITH
SOME AMPLIFICATION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOCALLY THE CONCERN WILL BE DIURNAL CONVECTION ON
BOTH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEABREEZE. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS LATE IN THE PERIOD SUBSIDENCE FROM 5H RIDGE
PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST WORKS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL STAY THERE. ANY CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TO THE NORTH ALSO. STRONG SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TODAY WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DIURNALLY THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 10 KTS ALL NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH DRY MOISTURE PROFILES WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS THIS
MORNING IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF
SHORE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS
INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 6AM THURS
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH A STEADY DECREASE THEREAFTER AS GRADIENT RELAXES A
BIT WITH CONTINUED SW TO W FLOW 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND WEST SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
STARTS OUT 15 TO 20 KT BUT AS SURFACE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES THU
AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 15 KT. REDUCTION IN SPEEDS CONTINUES INTO
FRI WITH 10 TO 15 KT BY DAYBREAK. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH BERMUDA HIGH THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE.
BORDERLINE SCA SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MAY REQUIRE EXTENSION
OF HEADLINES THROUGH THU MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY SEAS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5
FT...FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FT FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH COMBO WILL
KEEP WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 KT...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE
DEFINED AND SEABREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...A MIX OF
WIND WAVE AND SOUTHERLY SWELL.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL/RGZ
000
FXUS62 KILM 151421
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1021 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WEDNESDAY...TEMPS SOARING INTO THE 70S BY MID
MORNING...SURPASSING HIGH TEMPS FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
ALREADY. PLENTY OF WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY IN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS
GUSTING OVER 20 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPS WILL RISE UP
TO 18C AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. STRONG WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL AID IN PRODUCING VERY WARM
TEMPS REACHING CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN
FOR THE MOST PART. PCP WATER VALUES AROUND .75 INCHES DO INCREASE
ABOVE AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH SYSTEM TO THE NORTH REACHES DOWN OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE
AREA. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA...BUT OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS REACHING
WELL INTO THE 80S. SEA BREEZE WILL COME AGAINST STRONG SOUTHWEST
WIND BUT WILL MAKE ITS WAY IN FROM THE BEACHES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES CLOSE
TO THE COAST.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS AND
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OFF SHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN UP TO 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. THESE WINDS WILL HELP KEEP A FLOW OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS RISING UP
CLOSE TO 60 F BY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING ABOVE 60
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXITING TO THE EAST
THU WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK TROUGHING FRI. DO NOT THINK PRECIP
WILL BE AN ISSUE ON THU DESPITE THE EXITING 5H RIDGE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT DRY AIR BELOW 15K FT ALONG WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE 15K FT LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD.
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD AS A SUMMER TIME PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA WHILE AT THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURES. WEAK FORCING ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SO DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
EXTENSIVE BUT LOW CHC POP IS PROBABLY WARRANTED WELL INLAND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THU WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP SEABREEZE PINNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONTINUE TO BE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IN THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR THIS IS LESS LIKELY. ECMWF
INSISTS ON PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT THE
GFS KEEPS IT STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE GFS HAS BEEN
MARGINALLY BETTER THAN THE ECMWF RECENTLY AND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
LIKELIHOOD OF THE FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA HAVE FAVORED THE
GFS SOLUTION. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS WEAK BUT PROGRESSIVE WITH
SOME AMPLIFICATION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOCALLY THE CONCERN WILL BE DIURNAL CONVECTION ON
BOTH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEABREEZE. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS LATE IN THE PERIOD SUBSIDENCE FROM 5H RIDGE
PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST WORKS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL STAY THERE. ANY CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TO THE NORTH ALSO. STRONG SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TODAY WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DIURNALLY THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 10 KTS ALL NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH DRY MOISTURE PROFILES WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS THIS
MORNING IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF
SHORE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS
INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 6AM THURS
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH A STEADY DECREASE THEREAFTER AS GRADIENT RELAXES A
BIT WITH CONTINUED SW TO W FLOW 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND WEST SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
STARTS OUT 15 TO 20 KT BUT AS SURFACE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES THU
AFTERNOON SPEEDS DROP TO 15 KT. REDUCTION IN SPEEDS CONTINUES INTO
FRI WITH 10 TO 15 KT BY DAYBREAK. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH BERMUDA HIGH THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE.
BORDERLINE SCA SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MAY REQUIRE EXTENSION
OF HEADLINES THROUGH THU MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY SEAS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5
FT...FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FT FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH COMBO WILL
KEEP WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 KT...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE
DEFINED AND SEABREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...A MIX OF
WIND WAVE AND SOUTHERLY SWELL.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
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