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000
FXUS62 KILM 251723
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
123 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer-like warmth will continue through the end of the week as
high pressure remains entrenched across the western Atlantic. Low
pressure will develop near the Bahamas and move towards the
southeast coast this weekend. This feature will drift near the
coast Sunday through early next week, bringing an extended period
of unsettled weather and cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Wednesday...No changes to the near term forecast
with the latest update. Relevant portion of previous discussion
from early this morning follows:

Maximums today 86-90 inland and 81-85 closer to the coast. A
strengthening sea breeze this afternoon will generate a rope of
inland progressing, enhanced surface convergence. While this may
spark moderate cumulus, overwhelming dryness above 8000 FT will
make it difficult to pop a shower, so no mentionable in the
precipitation category today. A fair evening and overnight period
expected with mostly clear skies and light surface wind. Patchy
ground fog is probable in some spots but increasing boundary layer
winds late will likely prevent extensive fog or mist coverage.
Minimums daybreak Thursday 62-68, and mildest near the Atlantic.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Main weather captions this time period
highlight above normal warmth Thursday similar to today, then a
chance of tropical showers late Friday night into early Saturday.
Confidence is high on a sunny and warm day Thursday, but a bit
less resolute on tropical moisture infusion timing late Friday.
At a minimum we will see an uptick in absolute low-level humidity
along with an increasing chance of moderately strong rip currents
and showers heading into the weekend. Increasing clouds will
shave a few Fahrenheits off our maximum temperatures on Friday
but the trade off of more humidity may keep apparent temps similar.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...All eyes for the Memorial Day weekend will
be on the tropics as a disturbed area of weather near the Bahamas
organizes into a wave of low pressure and moves westward towards the
southeast coast. Guidance has been remarkably consistent for several
days now in developing this system and drifting it westward...but
forecast confidence remains low as to how exactly our area weather
will be impacted.

Ridge of high pressure across the Atlantic Ocean will weaken and
move northward as the trough of low pressure skirts to the west
beneath it. By Saturday...at least a weak low pressure trough is
progged to be off the SC coast. This will then meander slowly in a
col on the western side of the weakening ridge...and it is primarily
the position and strength of that feature which will dictate the
movement of the trough. NHC has a 30% chance of subtropical/tropical
formation in the next 5 days...and while the low will move quite
slowly...water temps are cool and forecast models struggle to give
it a warm core.

That being said...it may be irrelevant as far as sensible weather
goes whether this becomes a named system or just a weak low
pressure...as an extended period of unsettled weather lasting
through the holiday weekend. Deep ribbon of tropical moisture could
angle directly into the ILM CWA...especially if the low stays to our
south...and some of the latest guidance has the low drifting SW
Sunday and then back to the NE early next week (similar to the track
of Beryl in 2012)...which could make for a long duration of
unsettled weather. Attm will show an extended period of CHC pop
throughout the period...but it is unlikely the entire 4 days will be
a washout as periods of rainfall will be dictated by upper
diffluence within jet structures...surface convergence...and
vorticity dynamics...all of which can vary highly.
Still...widespread clouds and at least periods of rain are forecast
Sat-Tue...with highs likely below climo and mins slightly above.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 18Z...VFR conditions through the period. Shallow convective
clouds showing a little more coverage this afternoon but should
pose no threat to aviation concerns. Column remains too dry to
support any significant fog formation.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR gigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers, isolated TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Wednesday...Benign conditions over the waters
continue this afternoon. Latest obs show a light W to SW wind
with seas of 2 ft or less. Previous discussion from early this
morning follows:

Smooth sailing and power boating conditions on tap today as seas
hold in a 1.5 - 2.5 foot range today in 8-9 second intervals, co-
mingled with a light SW chop. Chop will build a bit in the
afternoon as we expect a robust sea breeze circulation and a few
inshore gusts of S-SSW up to 18 kt between 2 PM - 6 PM. No showers
or TSTMS or restrictions to VSBY anticipated today.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Manageable marine conditions will prevail
Thursday with 2-3 ft seas, moderate S-SW winds and no hazardous
marine weather. Dominant wave periods Thursday 7-8 seconds so no
sharp wave steepness to contend with. Friday a good beginning but
development of an increasing fetch distance and speed will likely
boost sea heights to a 3-5 ft range late Friday. Very early on
Saturday a small craft advisory for seas cannot be ruled out as
the wave building fetch endures. Showers and isolated TSTMS will
be on the increase late Friday as potentially a tropical low
approaches the coast. If you have boating plans this weekend
please keep abreast of the trends from Friday into Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...Significant uncertainty exists in this
period...but poor marine conditions are becoming more likely as a
wave of low pressure moves out of the Bahamas and towards the
southeast coast. The guidance is in agreement that this will
occur...but differ considerably on location and intensity and
timing. This suggests that while seas will almost certainly
increase on prolonged easterly fetch...up to at least 3-5 ft with
possible 6 footers both days...winds could be highly variable.
For now...have used a blend of the guidance to produce primarily
easterly winds at 10-15 kts...which will create a low amplitude
wind wave on top of the more significant easterly swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC/RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 251401
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1001 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer-like warmth will continue through the end of the week as
high pressure remains entrenched across the western Atlantic. Low
pressure will develop near the Bahamas and move towards the
southeast coast this weekend. This feature will drift near the
coast Sunday through early next week, bringing an extended period
of unsettled weather and cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10 AM Wednesday...Forecast remains on track, with plenty of
sunshine today and highs well up in the 80s. No changes
anticipated to the near term forecast with the next updates.
Relevant portion of previous discussion from early this morning
follows:

Maximums today 86-90 inland and 81-85 closer to the coast. A
strengthening sea breeze this afternoon will generate a rope of
inland progressing, enhanced surface convergence. While this may
spark moderate cumulus, overwhelming dryness above 8000 FT will
make it difficult to pop a shower, so no mentionable in the
precipitation category today. A fair evening and overnight period
expected with mostly clear skies and light surface wind. Patchy
ground fog is probable in some spots but increasing boundary layer
winds late will likely prevent extensive fog or mist coverage.
Minimums daybreak Thursday 62-68, and mildest near the Atlantic.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Main weather captions this time period
highlight above normal warmth Thursday similar to today, then a
chance of tropical showers late Friday night into early Saturday.
Confidence is high on a sunny and warm day Thursday, but a bit
less resolute on tropical moisture infusion timing late Friday.
At a minimum we will see an uptick in absolute low-level humidity
along with an increasing chance of moderately strong rip currents
and showers heading into the weekend. Increasing clouds will
shave a few Fahrenheits off our maximum temperatures on Friday
but the trade off of more humidity may keep apparent temps similar.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...All eyes for the Memorial Day weekend will
be on the tropics as a disturbed area of weather near the Bahamas
organizes into a wave of low pressure and moves westward towards the
southeast coast. Guidance has been remarkably consistent for several
days now in developing this system and drifting it westward...but
forecast confidence remains low as to how exactly our area weather
will be impacted.

Ridge of high pressure across the Atlantic Ocean will weaken and
move northward as the trough of low pressure skirts to the west
beneath it. By Saturday...at least a weak low pressure trough is
progged to be off the SC coast. This will then meander slowly in a
col on the western side of the weakening ridge...and it is primarily
the position and strength of that feature which will dictate the
movement of the trough. NHC has a 30% chance of subtropical/tropical
formation in the next 5 days...and while the low will move quite
slowly...water temps are cool and forecast models struggle to give
it a warm core.

That being said...it may be irrelevant as far as sensible weather
goes whether this becomes a named system or just a weak low
pressure...as an extended period of unsettled weather lasting
through the holiday weekend. Deep ribbon of tropical moisture could
angle directly into the ILM CWA...especially if the low stays to our
south...and some of the latest guidance has the low drifting SW
Sunday and then back to the NE early next week (similar to the track
of Beryl in 2012)...which could make for a long duration of
unsettled weather. Attm will show an extended period of CHC pop
throughout the period...but it is unlikely the entire 4 days will be
a washout as periods of rainfall will be dictated by upper
diffluence within jet structures...surface convergence...and
vorticity dynamics...all of which can vary highly.
Still...widespread clouds and at least periods of rain are forecast
Sat-Tue...with highs likely below climo and mins slightly above.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 12Z...VFR with clear skies and calm winds this morning.
KILM VAD wind profile shows WSW-W winds around 15 kts above the
surface. These winds should translate to the surface around 6 kt
by the next hour and persist through much of the morning.

Good warming today should allow for a good sea/land temperature
contrast to develop. This should result in a S-SSW sea breeze
mid-late morning at KMYR/KCRE and by early afternoon at KILM.
Inland terminals should see winds back to light SW in the
afternoon. A relatively dry airmass will yield little cumulus
formation today. Winds should decrease around sunset and remain
light/variable overnight.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR gigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers, isolated TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10 AM Wednesday...Benign conditions over the waters remains
the forecast for today. Latest obs show a light W to SW wind with
seas of 2 ft or less. Previous discussion from early this morning
follows:

Smooth sailing and power boating conditions on tap today as seas
hold in a 1.5 - 2.5 foot range today in 8-9 second intervals, co-
mingled with a light SW chop. Chop will build a bit in the
afternoon as we expect a robust sea breeze circulation and a few
inshore gusts of S-SSW up to 18 kt between 2 PM - 6 PM. No showers
or TSTMS or restrictions to VSBY anticipated today.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Manageable marine conditions will prevail
Thursday with 2-3 ft seas, moderate S-SW winds and no hazardous
marine weather. Dominant wave periods Thursday 7-8 seconds so no
sharp wave steepness to contend with. Friday a good beginning but
development of an increasing fetch distance and speed will likely
boost sea heights to a 3-5 ft range late Friday. Very early on
Saturday a small craft advisory for seas cannot be ruled out as
the wave building fetch endures. Showers and isolated TSTMS will
be on the increase late Friday as potentially a tropical low
approaches the coast. If you have boating plans this weekend
please keep abreast of the trends from Friday into Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...Significant uncertainty exists in this
period...but poor marine conditions are becoming more likely as a
wave of low pressure moves out of the Bahamas and towards the
southeast coast. The guidance is in agreement that this will
occur...but differ considerably on location and intensity and
timing. This suggests that while seas will almost certainly
increase on prolonged easterly fetch...up to at least 3-5 ft with
possible 6 footers both days...winds could be highly variable.
For now...have used a blend of the guidance to produce primarily
easterly winds at 10-15 kts...which will create a low amplitude
wind wave on top of the more significant easterly swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC/RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ





000
FXUS62 KILM 251129
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
729 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer like warmth will continue through the end of the week as
high pressure remains entrenched across the western Atlantic. Low
pressure will develop near the Bahamas and move towards the
southeast coast this weekend. This feature will drift near the
coast Sunday through early next week bringing an extended period
of unsettled weather and cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 621 AM Wednesday...If you were a time-traveling, blindfolded
climatologist, stepping outside locally this afternoon and asked
what time of the year it is, you might guess in the heart of June
or very early July. The only subtlety or clue in this assessment
otherwise would be that dewpoints are not all that stifling as
yet. Maximums today 86-90 inland and 81-85 closer to the coast. A
strengthening sea breeze this afternoon will generate a rope of
inland progressing, enhanced surface convergence. While this may
spark moderate cumulus, overwhelming dryness above 8000 FT will
make it difficult to pop a shower, so no mentionables in the
precipitation category today. A fair evening and overnight period
expected with mostly clear skies and light surface wind. Patchy
ground fog is probable in some spots but increasing boundary layer
winds late will likely prevent extensive fog or mist coverage.
Minimums daybreak Thursday 62-68, and mildest near the Atlantic.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Main weather captions this time period
highlight above normal warmth Thursday similar to today, then a
chance of tropical showers late Friday night into early Saturday.
Confidence is high on a sunny and warm day Thursday, but a bit
less resolute on tropical moisture infusion timing late Friday.
At a minimum we will see an uptick in absolute low-level humidity
along with an increasing chance of moderately strong rip currents
and showers heading into the weekend. Increasing clouds will
shave a few Fahrenheits off our maximum temperatures on Friday
but the trade off of more humidity may keep apparent temps similar.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...All eyes for the Memorial Day weekend will
be on the tropics as a disturbed area of weather near the Bahamas
organizes into a wave of low pressure and moves westward towards the
southeast coast. Guidance has been remarkably consistent for several
days now in developing this system and drifting it westward...but
forecast confidence remains low as to how exactly our area weather
will be impacted.

Ridge of high pressure across the Atlantic Ocean will weaken and
move northward as the trough of low pressure skirts to the west
beneath it. By Saturday...at least a weak low pressure trough is
progged to be off the SC coast. This will then meander slowly in a
col on the western side of the weakening ridge...and it is primarily
the position and strength of that feature which will dictate the
movement of the trough. NHC has a 30% chance of subtropical/tropical
formation in the next 5 days...and while the low will move quite
slowly...water temps are cool and forecast models struggle to give
it a warm core.

That being said...it may be irrelevant as far as sensible weather
goes whether this becomes a named system or just a weak low
pressure...as an extended period of unsettled weather lasting
through the holiday weekend. Deep ribbon of tropical moisture could
angle directly into the ILM CWA...especially if the low stays to our
south...and some of the latest guidance has the low drifting SW
Sunday and then back to the NE early next week (similar to the track
of Beryl in 2012)...which could make for a long duration of
unsettled weather. Attm will show an extended period of CHC pop
throughout the period...but it is unlikely the entire 4 days will be
a washout as periods of rainfall will be dictated by upper
diffluence within jet structures...surface convergence...and
vorticity dynamics...all of which can vary highly.
Still...widespread clouds and at least periods of rain are forecast
Sat-Tue...with highs likely below climo and mins slightly above.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 12Z...VFR with clear skies and calm winds this morning.
KILM VAD wind profile shows WSW-W winds around 15 kts above the
surface. These winds should translate to the surface around 6 kt
by the next hour and persist through much of the morning.

Good warming today should allow for a good sea/land temperature
contrast to develop. This should result in a S-SSW sea breeze
mid-late morning at KMYR/KCRE and by early afternoon at KILM.
Inland terminals should see winds back to light SW in the
afternoon. A relatively dry airmass will yield little cumulus
formation today. Winds should decrease around sunset and remain
light/variable overnight.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers, isolated TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 621 AM Wednesday...Smooth sailing and power boating
conditions on tap today as seas hold in a 1.5 - 2.5 foot range
today in 8-9 second intervals, co-mingled with a light SW chop.
Chop will build a bit in the afternoon as we expect a robust sea
breeze circulation and a few inshore gusts of S-SSW up to 18 kt
between 2 PM - 6 PM. No showers or TSTMS or restrictions to VSBY
anticipated today.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Manageable marine conditions will prevail
Thursday with 2-3 ft seas, moderate S-SW winds and no hazardous
marine weather. Dominant wave periods Thursday 7-8 seconds so no
sharp wave steepness to contend with. Friday a good beginning but
development of an increasing fetch distance and speed will likely
boost sea heights to a 3-5 ft range late Friday. Very early on
Saturday a small craft advisory for seas cannot be ruled out as
the wave building fetch endures. Showers and isolated TSTMS will
be on the increase late Friday as potentially a tropical low
approaches the coast. If you have boating plans this weekend
please keep abreast of the trends from Friday into Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...Significant uncertainty exists in this
period...but poor marine conditions are becoming more likely as a
wave of low pressure moves out of the Bahamas and towards the
southeast coast. The guidance is in agreement that this will
occur...but differ considerably on location and intensity and
timing. This suggests that while seas will almost certainly
increase on prolonged easterly fetch...up to at least 3-5 ft with
possible 6 footers both days...winds could be highly variable.
For now...have used a blend of the guidance to produce primarily
easterly winds at 10-15 kts...which will create a low amplitude
wind wave on top of the more significant easterly swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC/RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 250500
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
100 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures will continue as high pressure spreads across a
good portion of the Atlantic. Low pressure will develop east of
the Bahamas late in the week. It is too soon to tell where this
feature will end up bringing wet weather...but it may be locally.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1 AM Wednesday...High pressure offshore will ridge across
the waters overnight. This should keep skies clear along with
light to calm winds. Ideal radiational cooling will occur.
Dewpoints are expected to recover slightly and this will put a
floor on overnight lows. Expect lows in the lower to mid 60s with
the coolest inland spots dropping to the upper 50s. A few mid 50s
are possible in the most rural inland locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Mid to upper ridge will build up the
southeast coast with increasing heights and plenty of warm May
sunshine to create temps up above normal. Expect temps to reach
well into the 80s to around 90 in spots. Plenty of dry air and
subsidence will keep showers/tstms out of the forecast for the
most part, but will not rule out a few aftn cu. Models continue to
show a minor shortwave reaching into the Carolinas on Thurs. This
may support a few thunderstorms...mainly west of the area.
Included a slight chc around I-95 corridor. The center of high
will basically remain off the coast shifting east through the week
and therefore expect a southerly return flow around the high
helping to bring slightly higher dewpoint air into the region.
this will help to moderate overnight lows a bit, keeping temps in
the 60s. Resumption of SW return flow will limit overnight cooling
with low and middle 60s at daybreaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Model agreement regarding the area of
disturbed weather just east of the Bahamas is getting hard to
ignore. The agreement is related to the fact that they all develop
low pressure out of this mass of convection that is likely at
least partly warm core. Where the agreement trails off is with
respect to the path and timing of said low. This will have large
local forecast ramifications as models like the GFS that decidedly
bring it into the SC coast would imply a fairly wet weekend maybe
lasting into early next week as the system meanders. Other
solutions that keep the meandering motion offshore through the
period could keep us in the subsiding and drier area west of the
low/trough. Should we remain outside of the effects of the system
then with a building upper ridge off the coast we may not have
very strong forcing for precipitation. But since even since the
latest 12Z ECMWF brings associated moisture ashore by Saturday
will keep the forecast as-is showing a rise in POPs Saturday as
well as tempered afternoon highs. When and where this features
comes ashore may be in for a long wet period as it will be quite
slow to move stuck under the aforementioned ridge aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 06Z...Winds light SW to calm this morning. Under clear
skies there is a slight potential for patchy fog development
reducing vsbys to MVFR towards sunrise...mainly quite shallow
or simply a ground fog.

Light sw-w winds will begin around sunrise and will become SSW by
afternoon. No precipitation is expected as the airmass is quite
dry.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers, isolated TSTMS.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1 AM Wednesday...High pressure offshore will ridge across
the waters overnight. Southwest winds up to 10 to 15 kt late this
eve will diminish to near 10 kt or less overnight. Seas of 2 to 3
ft will be mainly 2 ft overnight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Southerly return flow will continue around
high pressure center to the east of the local waters. gradient
remains weak with winds generally less than 15 kt but expect a
spike in winds and a bit of chop each afternoon as sea breeze
kicks in producing some gustier winds for a few hours. Seas will
remain below 3 ft.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Some vexing uncertainty regarding a
possible area of low pressure that is forecast to develop from the
area of current disturbed weather east of the Bahamas. Winds will
stay onshore through the long term. The possible effects, if any
from the low will be possibly to veer them and/or increase wind
and seas. Have not changed the current forecast which shows a
little of all (veering, increased wind speeds, building seas).

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 241930
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warmup gets underway tomorrow as high pressure spreads across
a good portion of the Atlantic. Low pressure will develop east of
the Bahamas late in the week. It is too soon to tell where this
feature will end up bringing wet weather but it may be locally.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...A return to quiet weather as high pressure
takes residence over the southeast. only a few clusters of cu
across the area but otherwise sunshine was plentiful this
afternoon. Temps soared to around 80 under bright May sunshine.
With pcp water down around .8 inches, dewpoint temps in the 50sand
a dry downslope westerly flow aloft, expect dry weather through
tonight. Ideal radiational cooling will occur tonight as winds
drop off after sunset and skies remain mainly clear. This will
result in low temps within a few degrees of 60 most places.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...Mid to upper ridge will build up the
southeast coast with increasing heights and plenty of warm May
sunshine to create temps up above normal. Expect temps to reach
well into the 80s to around 90 in spots. Plenty of dry air and
subsidence will keep shwrs/tstms out of the forecast for the most
part, but will not rule out a few aftn cu. Models continue to show
a minor shortwave reaching into the Carolinas on Thurs. This may
support a few thunderstorms...mainly west of the area. Included a
slight chc around I-95 corridor. The center of high will
basically remain off the coast shifting east through the week and
therefore expect a southerly return flow around the high helping
to bring slightly higher dewpoint air into the region. this will
help to moderate overnight lows a bit, keeping temps in the 60s.
Resumption of SW return flow will limit overnight cooling with low
and middle 60s at daybreaks.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 3 PM Tuesday... Model agreement regarding the area of
disturbed weather just east of the Bahamas is getting hard to
ignore. The agreement is related to the fact that they all develop
low pressure out of this mass of convection that is likely at least
partly warm core. Where the agreement trails off is with respect to
the path and timing of said low. This will have large local forecast
ramifications as models like the GFS that decidedly bring it into
the SC coast would imply a fairly wet weekend maybe lasting into
early next week as the system meanders. Other solutions that keep
the meandering motion offshore through the period could keep us in
the subsiding and drier area west of the low/trough. Should we
remain outside of the effects of the system then with a building
upper ridge off the coast we may not have very strong forcing for
precipitation.  But since even since the latest 12Z ECMWF brings
associated moisture ashore by Saturday will keep the forecast as-is
showing a rise in POPs Saturday as well as tempered afternoon highs.
When and where this features comes ashore may be in for a long wet
period as it will be quite slow to move stuck under the
aforementioned ridge aloft.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 18Z...Surface high pressure will build across the area
through Wednesday. May see a few convective clouds this afternoon
but that should be the extent. VFR conditions through the period.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Tranquil marine conditions will continue
with southerly return flow 10 to 15 kts. Any gustier winds due to
sea breeze this afternoon will drop below 10 kts out of the SW for
the most part overnight as high pressure takes residence over the
waters off the southeast coast. Seas will remain less than 3 ft.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...Southerly return flow will continue
around high pressure center to the east of the local waters.
gradient remains weak with winds generally less than 15 kts but
expect a spike in winds and a bit of chop each afternoon as sea
breeze kicks in producing some gustier winds for a few hours. seas
will remain below 3 ft.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 3 PM Tuesday...   Some vexing uncertainty regarding a possible
area of low pressure that is forecast to develop from the area of
current disturbed weather east of the Bahamas. Winds will stay
onshore through the long term. The possible effects, if any from the
low will be possibly to veer them and/or increase wind and seas.
Have not changed the current forecast which shows a little of all
(veering, increased wind speeds, building seas).

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...mbb
AVIATION...SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 241720
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
120 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region for the next several
days. Warm and dry conditions are expected through mid week with
temperatures well above normal Wednesday and Thursday. Weak low
pressure originating from the Bahamas will bring a showery pattern
through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Tuesday...A return to quiet weather as not a cloud in
the sky appears over the local forecast area. After a cool start,
the temps were up into the 70s by mid morning and will continue to
soar under bright May sunshine. With pcp water down around .8
inches, dewpoint temps in the 50sand a dry downslope westerly
flow aloft, expect plenty of sunshine this afternoon. The SREF
and HRRR show potential for a few showers along the SC coast but
mainly down toward CHS where a bit more moisture is present. As
temps warm up near 80 through the day, expect sea breeze to
develop and cool coastal areas a bit, but overall a sunny warm
day with temps running a few degrees below normal.

Fair weather this evening in weak low level return flow coupled
with good radiational heat escape under mostly clear skies...will
result minimums of 58-63 by daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Chief headline is the heat switch gets
flipped to the `on` position Wed/Thu with middle and upper 80s
across the board and toastiest inland away from marine cooling.
Deep layered and overwhelming aridness will put the kabash on
showers or TSTMS although enough H9-H8 moisture appears in place
for a few afternoon cumulus. Resumption of SW return flow will
limit overnight cooling with low and middle 60s at daybreaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Uncertainty during the period remains quite
high due to possible development of hybrid low pressure off the
southeast coast late in the week. The GFS has been consistent in
developing this feature the last few days with the CMC and ECMWF
recently jumping on board. So while the medium range guidance is in
agreement that a low or, at the very least, a trough will exist off
the southeast coast at the start of the period the location of this
feature varies significantly, as does its track. The medium range
guidance does agree on the break down of the surface and mid level
ridging later Fri with increasing tropical moisture resulting in an
increase in cloud cover and shower chances for the weekend.

Regardless of whether or not the low develops it certainly appears
there will be an extended period of deep southwest flow over the
southeast. This will persist through the end of the period and the
resulting abundance of deep moisture is likely to produce daily
showers and thunderstorms. Increased cloud cover along with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms as well as onshore flow will
keep highs near to slightly below climo but hold lows a little
above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 18Z...Surface high pressure will build across the area
through Wednesday. May see a few convective clouds this afternoon
but that should be the extent. VFR conditions through the period.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Tuesday...Tranquil marine conditions this morning in
a weak off shore flow. Winds will shift to the SW and increase up
to 15 kt in the late afternoon as the sea breeze adds a few
knots. Overall a SW return flow will develop as high pressure
takes hold and settles over the waters. Expect SW winds 10 kts or
less overnight. Seas will remain less than 3 ft.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Early summer SW wind pattern prevails this
period with friendly marine conditions with no TSTMS...and sea
heights around 2 feet in 8-9 second intervals. May see gusts to 18
kt inshore between 2pm-6pm due to the sea breeze enhancement but
overall wind speeds generally less than 15 kt this period...look
out fish.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Weakening/retreating Bermuda High and potential
low pressure system taking shape near the Bahamas will produce
southeast flow across the waters Fri, becoming more easterly for
Sat. Gradient remains on the weak side through the period with
speeds on the low side of the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas will be on an
increasing trend through the period, building from around 2 ft Fri
morning to 3 to 5 ft late Sat. Worth noting there is potential for
higher seas should low pressure take shape near the Bahamas late
in the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 241551
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1151 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region for the next several
days. Warm and dry conditions are expected through mid week with
temperatures well above normal Wednesday and Thursday. Weak low
pressure originating from the Bahamas will bring a showery pattern
through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Tuesday...A return to quiet weather as not a cloud in
the sky appears over the local forecast area. After a cool start,
the temps were up into the 70s by mid morning and will continue to
soar under bright May sunshine. With pcp water down around .8
inches, dewpoint temps in the 50sand a dry downslope westerly
flow aloft, expect plenty of sunshine this afternoon. The SREF
and HRRR show potential for a few showers along the SC coast but
mainly down toward CHS where a bit more moisture is present. As
temps warm up near 80 through the day, expect sea breeze to
develop and cool coastal areas a bit, but overall a sunny warm
day with temps running a few degrees below normal.

Fair weather this evening in weak low level return flow coupled
with good radiational heat escape under mostly clear skies...will
result minimums of 58-63 by daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Chief headline is the heat switch gets
flipped to the `on` position Wed/Thu with middle and upper 80s
across the board and toastiest inland away from marine cooling.
Deep layered and overwhelming aridness will put the kabash on
showers or TSTMS although enough H9-H8 moisture appears in place
for a few afternoon cumulus. Resumption of SW return flow will
limit overnight cooling with low and middle 60s at daybreaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Uncertainty during the period remains quite
high due to possible development of hybrid low pressure off the
southeast coast late in the week. The GFS has been consistent in
developing this feature the last few days with the CMC and ECMWF
recently jumping on board. So while the medium range guidance is in
agreement that a low or, at the very least, a trough will exist off
the southeast coast at the start of the period the location of this
feature varies significantly, as does its track. The medium range
guidance does agree on the break down of the surface and mid level
ridging later Fri with increasing tropical moisture resulting in an
increase in cloud cover and shower chances for the weekend.

Regardless of whether or not the low develops it certainly appears
there will be an extended period of deep southwest flow over the
southeast. This will persist through the end of the period and the
resulting abundance of deep moisture is likely to produce daily
showers and thunderstorms. Increased cloud cover along with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms as well as onshore flow will
keep highs near to slightly below climo but hold lows a little
above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 12Z...Any patchy light fog will be out of here shortly after
TAF issuance. Upper low is pulling away but still may have enough
influence to produce CU this afternoon...mainly from 15-21Z. No
precip is expected...but could not rule out isolated convection over
the extreme northeast portion of the CWA. Tonight...mainly clear
skies with little or no fog expected due to moderate southwest flow
aloft.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Tuesday...Tranquil marine conditions this morning in
a weak off shore flow. Winds will shift to the SW and increase up
to 15 kt in the late afternoon as the sea breeze adds a few
knots. Overall a SW return flow will develop as high pressure
takes hold and settles over the waters. Expect SW winds 10 kts or
less overnight. Seas will remain less than 3 ft.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Early summer SW wind pattern prevails this
period with friendly marine conditions with no TSTMS...and sea
heights around 2 feet in 8-9 second intervals. May see gusts to 18
kt inshore between 2pm-6pm due to the sea breeze enhancement but
overall wind speeds generally less than 15 kt this period...look
out fish.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Weakening/retreating Bermuda High and potential
low pressure system taking shape near the Bahamas will produce
southeast flow across the waters Fri, becoming more easterly for
Sat. Gradient remains on the weak side through the period with
speeds on the low side of the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas will be on an
increasing trend through the period, building from around 2 ft Fri
morning to 3 to 5 ft late Sat. Worth noting there is potential for
higher seas should low pressure take shape near the Bahamas late
in the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RAN





000
FXUS62 KILM 241020
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
621 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region for the next several
days. Warm and dry conditions are expected through mid week with
temperatures well above normal Wednesday and Thursday. Weak low
pressure originating from the Bahamas will bring a showery pattern
through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Transition day as low pressure NE of the area
releases its hold on low level winds...allowing high pressure to
bump into the area as heights aloft snap back into place. Late May
sunshine and residual H9-H8 moisture will allow cumulus formation
this afternoon and at best an isolated shower over interior Pender
county between 4-5 pm. A decent count on sunshine minutes today and
maximums approaching near to slightly below normal for late May.
Fair this evening in low level return wind flow coupled with good
radiational heat escape under mostly clear skies...will result
minimums of 58-63 by daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Chief headline is the heat switch gets
flipped to the `on` position Wed/Thu with middle and upper 80s
across the board and toastiest inland away from marine cooling.
Deep layered and overwhelming aridness will put the kabash on
showers or TSTMS although enough H9-H8 moisture appears in place
for a few afternoon cumulus. Resumption of SW return flow will
limit overnight cooling with low and middle 60s at daybreaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Uncertainty during the period remains quite
high due to possible development of hybrid low pressure off the
southeast coast late in the week. The GFS has been consistent in
developing this feature the last few days with the CMC and ECMWF
recently jumping on board. So while the medium range guidance is in
agreement that a low or, at the very least, a trough will exist off
the southeast coast at the start of the period the location of this
feature varies significantly, as does its track. The medium range
guidance does agree on the break down of the surface and mid level
ridging later Fri with increasing tropical moisture resulting in an
increase in cloud cover and shower chances for the weekend.

Regardless of whether or not the low develops it certainly appears
there will be an extended period of deep southwest flow over the
southeast. This will persist through the end of the period and the
resulting abundance of deep moisture is likely to produce daily
showers and thunderstorms. Increased cloud cover along with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms as well as onshore flow will
keep highs near to slightly below climo but hold lows a little
above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 12Z...Any patchy light fog will be out of here shortly after
TAF issuance. Upper low is pulling away but still may have enough
influence to produce CU this afternoon...mainly from 15-21Z. No
precip is expected...but could not rule out isolated convection over
the extreme northeast portion of the CWA. Tonight...mainly clear
skies with little or no fog expected due to moderate southwest flow
aloft.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Transition day as low pressure NE of the area
releases its hold on low level winds...allowing marine winds to
become SW this afternoon...up to 15 kt in the late afternoon as
the sea breeze adds a few knots...resuming SW 10 kt tonight. Seas
2 ft every 9 seconds with light wind chop so very manageable and
no TSTMS or marine weather hazards expected through daybreak Wed.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Early summer SW wind pattern prevails this
period with friendly marine conditions with no TSTMS...and sea
heights around 2 feet in 8-9 second intervals. May see gusts to 18
kt inshore between 2pm-6pm due to the sea breeze enhancement but
overall wind speeds generally less than 15 kt this period...look
out fish.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Weakening/retreating Bermuda High and potential
low pressure system taking shape near the Bahamas will produce
southeast flow across the waters Fri, becoming more easterly for
Sat. Gradient remains on the weak side through the period with
speeds on the low side of the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas will be on an
increasing trend through the period, building from around 2 ft Fri
morning to 3 to 5 ft late Sat. Worth noting there is potential for
higher seas should low pressure take shape near the Bahamas late
in the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43





000
FXUS62 KILM 240722
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
322 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region for the next several
days. Warm and dry conditions are expected through mid week with
temperatures well above normal Wednesday and Thursday. Weak low
pressure originating from the Bahamas will bring a showery pattern
through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Transition day as low pressure NE of the area
releases its hold on low level winds...allowing high pressure to
bump into the area as heights aloft snap back into place. Late May
sunshine and residual H9-H8 moisture will allow cumulus formation
this afternoon and at best an isolated shower over interior Pender
county between 4-5 pm. A decent count on sunshine minutes today and
maximums approaching near to slightly below normal for late May.
Fair this evening in low level return wind flow coupled with good
radiational heat escape under mostly clear skies...will result
minimums of 58-63 by daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Chief headline is the heat switch gets
flipped to the `on` position Wed/Thu with middle and upper 80s
across the board and toastiest inland away from marine cooling.
Deep layered and overwhelming aridness will put the kabash on
showers or TSTMS although enough H9-H8 moisture appears in place
for a few afternoon cumulus. Resumption of SW return flow will
limit overnight cooling with low and middle 60s at daybreaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Uncertainty during the period remains quite
high due to possible development of hybrid low pressure off the
southeast coast late in the week. The GFS has been consistent in
developing this feature the last few days with the CMC and ECMWF
recently jumping on board. So while the medium range guidance is in
agreement that a low or, at the very least, a trough will exist off
the southeast coast at the start of the period the location of this
feature varies significantly, as does its track. The medium range
guidance does agree on the break down of the surface and mid level
ridging later Fri with increasing tropical moisture resulting in an
increase in cloud cover and shower chances for the weekend.

Regardless of whether or not the low develops it certainly appears
there will be an extended period of deep southwest flow over the
southeast. This will persist through the end of the period and the
resulting abundance of deep moisture is likely to produce daily
showers and thunderstorms. Increased cloud cover along with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms as well as onshore flow will
keep highs near to slightly below climo but hold lows a little
above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 06Z...Patchy MVFR mist/fog til 12z then VFR through the
valid TAF cycle. Light to calm winds will become W-SW today
4-8 kt. Coastal terminal can expected 20012kt between 18z-22z
due to the sea breeze influence. Winds light to calm aft 1z-2z.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Transition day as low pressure NE of the area
releases its hold on low level winds...allowing marine winds to
become SW this afternoon...up to 15 kt in the late afternoon as
the sea breeze adds a few knots...resuming SW 10 kt tonight. Seas
2 ft every 9 seconds with light wind chop so very manageable and
no TSTMS or marine weather hazards expected through daybreak Wed.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Early summer SW wind pattern prevails this
period with friendly marine conditions with no TSTMS...and sea
heights around 2 feet in 8-9 second intervals. May see gusts to 18
kt inshore between 2pm-6pm due to the sea breeze enhancement but
overall wind speeds generally less than 15 kt this period...look
out fish.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Weakening/retreating Bermuda High and potential
low pressure system taking shape near the Bahamas will produce
southeast flow across the waters Fri, becoming more easterly for
Sat. Gradient remains on the weak side through the period with
speeds on the low side of the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas will be on an
increasing trend through the period, building from around 2 ft Fri
morning to 3 to 5 ft late Sat. Worth noting there is potential for
higher seas should low pressure take shape near the Bahamas late
in the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RAN/MJC





000
FXUS62 KILM 232339
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
739 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low will move slowly away from the Carolinas tonight with
a few showers and storms possible through nightfall. High pressure
will build across the region on Tuesday...and then move offshore
as a Bermuda high through the end of the week. This will bring
above normal temperatures with ample sunshine through Friday. More
unsettled weather is possible this coming weekend as a trough
approaches the coast from the Bahamas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 630 pm Monday...Will remove POPs by mid-evening. Waning
insolation and resulting instability will be the demise of any
additional convective development quickly after sunset. This
trend already illustrated by a mosaic of 88ds across the
Carolinas. The diurnal cu field will also dissipate, leaving
a mostly clear or partly cloudy worse case from any altocu clouds
as displayed by various model rh time heights for locations across
the FA. See no need to tweak overnight temps at this time.

Previous......................................................
As of 330 PM Monday...Widespread field of stratocu covering most
of forecast area producing mostly cloudy skies...with only a few
breaks of sunshine. Water vapor imagery still showing upper low
digging down across NC with clouds and showers wrapping down
around the back end toward the area. With such cool 500 mb temps
down close to -25c this morning...the steep lapse rates helped
with rapid cu development by late this morning. The clouds have
slowed the rise in temps...basically reaching the mid 60s to
around 70 most places.

The southern extent of heavier showers was just north of local
forecast area wrapping around the deep NW flow. Expect showers to
be scattered mainly along northern portion of forecast area. Do
not expect much coverage overall with best lift closer to the
coast and farther north toward best energy wrapping around the
upper low. The temps aloft will actually begin to warm through
this evening with model soundings showing a spike right around
h70 making it bit harder to get any deep convection. Another
limiting factor will be the dry air and dewpoint temps right
around 50. Will most likely need to tap into some higher dewpoint
air from sea breeze front which will be almost non-existent due
to off shore flow and cool air temps which were running close to
the sea temps. The cool air aloft and low WBZ height will allow
for any deeper shwrs/tstms to produce some small hail. SPC
continues to show general thunder but has shrunken the area down
to include only NC and north into mid atlantic states. As of 3 pm,
lightning was limited from VA northward.

Look for convection to build over NC and drop into our area from
the N-NW and some localized development over SE NC and NE SC
between 17z and 00z before a diminishing trend. Expect clearing
with cool air in place for tonight leading to overnight lows in
the 50s once again except along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...A quiet mid week period with drying and
warming trend as pesky upper low lifts off to the northeast and
ridge builds in. Overall high pressure begins to dominate with
center in the off shore waters of the southeast, north of
bahamas. The light southerly return flow combined with rising h5
heights will allow for temps to soar into the 80s with plenty of
May sunshine both days. Tuesday should see close to 30 degree
temp rises after a cool start. By Wednesday, some locations may
reach 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...Very warm summertime conditions forecast
for the end of the week and the weekend as Bermuda high spins
offshore and mid-level ridging blossoms from the Gulf
Coast...moves overhead...and expands across the southeast. This is
a pattern that suggests above normal temperatures...but also
increasing humidity on the SW return surface flow. However...the
ridging aloft will keep the mid-level dry thanks to
subsidence...so diurnal convection will be isolated at best...and
other than Thursday thanks to a weak impulse moving overhead...the
Thu-Sat timeframe will be dry with temps approaching 90
inland...low/mid 80s closer to the coast.

Uncertainty increases for the weekend and into the Memorial Day
holiday. The surface and mid-level ridge drift north as a weakness
develops beneath it. Within this weakness a trough of low pressure
is progged to move out of the Bahamas and drift slowly towards the
southeast coast. The GFS has been incredibly consistent with this
feature...despite large fluctuations in its position and
intensity...while the ECM/CMC...which have been showing a weak
trough...have jumped on board with a more significant system with
the 12z suite today as well. GFS Ensembles are almost entirely in
agreement with the op-run also. While it is far too early to mention
any actual low pressure affecting the area...there is increasing
confidence that deepening easterly flow connected to the tropics
will create more unsettled weather this weekend and into Monday.
Have trimmed highs a bit for Sun/Mon while also ramping up precip
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 00Z...Showers resulting from instability induced by dayime
heating and the cool pool associated with the upper level low over
the region are winding down as the sun sets.  Outside of a little
MVFR fog, mainly at inland terminals, conditions should
be VFR through the valid TAF period.  Light north to northwest
winds tonight will become southwest at 5 to 10 KT during the day
Tuesday.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 pm Monday...Looking at mainly offshore winds tonight.
The sfc pg will remain relatively relaxed, yielding around 10 kt.
Except 10 to 15 kt north of Cape Fear due to the effects from the
departing upper low. Significant seas will run around 2
ft...except 2 to 3 ft from Cape Fear northward. Wind driven waves
will remain a low input to the overall significant seas.
Basically, a 1 to occasional 2 foot ese ground swell at 8 to 9
second periods will provide the sig. seas input.

Previous........................................................
As of 330 PM Monday...Northwest, offshore flow and very weak sea
breeze, if any, will produce fairly glassy seas in the near shore
waters through tonight. The water temps were running near the air
temps this aftn and therefore do not expect any chop. The only
gusts you may experience would come from an isolated passing
shower.

Winds will begin to slowly shift around from NW to W overnight
but will remain very light as high pressure begins to take hold.
Overall expect benign seas under 3 ft.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...Quiet marine conditions expected through
mid week as high pressure takes residence over the off shore
waters off the southeast coast. Overall expect a light southerly
return flow to set up. Near shore seas will experience some chop
in the afternoons due to a strong sea breeze setting up as temps
warm well into the 80s...more typical May conditions. Seas will
generally be 3 ft or less.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...S winds around Bermuda high pressure will
be predominant Thu/Fri before winds back more to the E/SE late in
the period. Gradient around the offshore high remains weak...so
winds Thu/Fri will be 10 kts or less...and the combination of
these light winds and a 2ft/8sec SE swell will drive wave heights
of 1-2 ft Thu...2-3 ft Friday. Late Friday and Saturday confidence
decreases as a wave of low pressure may emerge from the Bahamas
and approach the waters. This will drive increasing easterly winds
and wave heights building to 3-4 ft...possibly higher if a longer
period swell develops.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RAN





000
FXUS62 KILM 231733
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
133 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low will move across the eastern Carolinas today with
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through the evening.
The low will move offshore Tuesday as high pressure builds over
the region. Drier weather combined with above normal temperatures
will follow mid week into next weekend as an upper ridge expands
from the Gulf states.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Monday...Water vapor imagery still showing upper low
digging down across NC with clouds and showers wrapping down
around the back end toward the area. With such cool 500 mb temps
down close to -25c this morning...the steep lapse rates helped
with rapid cu development by late this morning. The clouds have
slowed the rise in temps...still in the mid 60s over NC late this
morning and close to 70 over most of NE SC. Expect showers to be
scattered mainly across NC earlier in the aftn but then focused
mainly along sea breeze convergence from the tip of Cape Fear down
to Georgetown. Do not expect much coverage overall with best lift closer
to the coast and farther north toward best energy wrapping around
the upper low. The temps aloft will actually begin to warm this
aftn and model soundings show some warming right around h70 making
it bit harder to get any deep convection. Another limiting factor
will be the dry air with dewpoint temps right around 50 will most
likely need to tap into some higher dewpoint air from sea breeze
front. The NW flow should keep the sea breeze from penetrating
too far inland. The cool air aloft and low WBZ height will allow
for any deeper shwrs/tstms to develop hail.

Overall expect Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms accompanied by hail expected this afternoon...as an
impulse discernible in vapor animations over central Virginia
snared in the cold pool circulation aloft drops S-SE across SE NC
and very NE SC. SPC maintains only `general` thunder status here
today since any strong to severe convection will remain isolated
in scope and farther north...yet non-zero in any one locality.
Interestingly...although less coverage is expected over NE SC
compared to SE NC this afternoon...the stronger insolation could
result in more robust towers over NE SC...so no one is entirely
out of the `hail woods`. Look for convection to build over NC and
drop across and develop over SE NC and NE SC between 17z and 00z
before a diminishing trend.

Expect clearing and cool air in place for tonight leading to
overnight lows in the 50s once again except along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Drying and warming trends the primary caption
this period as the upper circulating chilled pool lifts NNE away
from the area and loosens its hold. Subsequent height rises and
thickness surges will bring above normal temperatures by
Wednesday...with some locations nearing or reaching 90...middle
and upper 80s closer to the coast as the sea breeze circulation
fully awakens. The coolest portion of this period daybreak Tuesday
with readings entrenched well into the cooling 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Surface and mid level ridging in place through
the period will work to keep the region mostly rain free. Mid level
moisture emanating from southern TX mid-week will move across the
top of the ridge and over the east coast. The increased moisture
aloft combined with low level return flow around west side of
Bermuda High may allow for some isolated diurnal convection Thu and
Fri. Mid level ridge builds up the east coast Sat and Sun decreasing
moisture aloft but low level southeast flow will lead to increasing
boundary layer moisture. So while cloud cover may be on the increase
Sat and Sun precip chances may be limited by the dry air aloft.
Temperatures will run above climo through the period.

There is one potential fly in the ointment Sun. The GFS has
continued to show a weak area of low pressure emerging from the
Bahamas late in the week. The has been very little consistency with
the location, timing, or strength of the low but it has been
consistently present. Currently the CMC and ECMWF do not depict this
feature and for now the low is being discounted. It is worth noting
that the GFS sends a slug of tropical moisture into the Carolinas
late in the weekend with an increase in cloud cover and precip
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 18Z...The upper level low is still impacting the area with
scattered to broken ceilings this afternoon. Expect a few showers
as well but not enough coverage to warrant in tafs. Overall still
expect vfr conditions through the period with clearing skies
tonight. I did add a little mvfr fog for inland sites as winds
will back off and guidance shows dewpoint depressions near zero
for a few hours.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Monday...Offshore flow today will keep seas behaved
but highest outer portion...while very manageable marine
conditions prevail inshore. Showers and a few TSTMS will move off
land and across the waters in the afternoon to early evening and
hail may fall in the stronger convection. Sea spectrum comprised
of SE wave 2-3 FT every 9-10 seconds and a light to moderate N-NW
chop highest outer waters. Any storms will move from NW to SE and
could produce gusts in excess of 35 kt. Wind-speeds will ease
overnight as a surface low offshore of the outer banks jogs N and
weakens. Overall wave heights 2-4 feet...highest outer ribbon.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...The main marine headline this period is a
resumption back to normal marine winds typical of late May...SW
10-20 kt and seas essentially 2-3 feet. Shower and storm coverage
will have ended for the 0-20 NM waters by Tuesday and holding
through Wednesday. Dominant wave period of around 9 seconds are
expected, so wave steepness will remain low aside from light and
occasionally moderate S-SSW chop as the afternoon sea breeze
matures.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Bermuda High will be the dominant feature
through the period with south to southwest flow across the waters.
Gradient will keep speeds on the low end of the 10 to 15 kt range
with the only exception being the increase in speeds along the
coast due to the afternoon sea breeze. Seas will remain around 2
ft. &&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 230520
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
120 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low will move across the eastern Carolinas through late
tonight...bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms before
departing offshore on Tuesday. Drier weather combined with above
normal temperatures will follow mid week into next weekend...as an
upper ridge expands from the Gulf states.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 120 AM Monday...An upper low positioned across Virginia
this evening and will move into northeast North Carolina by
daybreak. Shortwave energy rotating around this upper low will
pivot across the forecast area tonight. One spoke of energy moved
offshore earlier this eve. The next in the series will move into
the eastern Carolinas overnight. Although lapse rates were steep
earlier today due to surface heating and cool temps aloft...this
will not be the case overnight. Thus...will go along with the
consensus of high resolution models and show convection ending by
or shortly after the midnight hour and then redeveloping Mon
morning as the pool of coldest air aloft reaches the area
coincident with the onset of surface heating.

Variably cloudy skies tonight. Lows in the mid and upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...For Monday, avbl models are in a consensus
with the evolution and now progression of the upper closed low.
Initially on Monday, the upper low will be over the Eastern
Carolinas. It`s progged to begin lifting northward with a slow
acceleration during Monday, reaching off the NJ coast by daybreak
Tue. As for sensible wx during Monday thru Monday night, one of the
spokes or mid-level s/w trofs rotating around the closed low, will
push across the FA Monday morning. The upper s/w trof dynamics, the
cold temps aloft with -20 degrees at 500 mb Monday morning, and avbl
moisture, will all combine to produce isolated to scattered
convection, which will be continuing into this time period from the
Near term Period. The morning`s insolation will likely be enough for
instability early to mid daytime Mon morning to produce isolated
thunder. With cold temps aloft, thunderstorms may produce pea size
hail along with brief gusty winds. For the remainder of Monday and
Monday night, subsidence aloft in the wake of the exiting s/w trof
should keep a partial lid on any additional convection during Monday
aftn and evening, but wouldn`t be surprised if a few convective
cells develop. Temps thru Monday night will continue to run 5 to 10
degrees below normal.

For Tuesday, the upper low will progress further ne, away from the
ILM CWA, reaching off Cape Cod by daybreak Wed. As a result, the FA
will be under a de-amplifying upper trof, and in addition, upper
ridging will be approaching from the west by late Tue. The ILM CWA
will no longer see those "spokes" rotating around the upper low
moving across the FA. Drying thru the atm column will also be
evident as illustrated by the latest various model rh time height
displays for locations across the fa. All of this said, spells no
POPs and a mostly sunny Tuesday and a clear sky Tue night. A warming
trend will ensue, with Max/Min temps reaching normal levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Summer weather for the last week of May as
ridging aloft and Bermuda high pressure at the surface combine
across the southeast. Each day through the extended will feature
above normal temps...widespread mid to upper 80s...although temps
will be a bit cooler at the coast thanks to a sea breeze each
aftn...with lows in the mid 60s. Subsidence beneath the ridge will
preclude even diurnal convection most days...although will maintain
a SCHC Thursday as a weak impulse moves atop the ridge...with enough
subtle height falls and PVA to generate storms Thursday evening.
Otherwise the forecast through the period remains dry and warm. On
Sunday...both the ECM and GFS have a broad low pressure moving
towards the coast embedded in the easterly flow. This could bring
unsettled weather and cooler temperatures...however confidence is
low and will keep pop below mentionable for D7.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 06Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions through the TAF cycle
although patches of MVFR fog tonight are likely. There is also a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday that warrants
VCSH 15z-22z as an upper low pivots across the area. Light and
mainly N-NW winds are expected through the valid TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Monday...Winds tonight will be from the N and NNE at
10 to 15 kt. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft. A batch of showers is
expected to wane as it approaches the waters late this eve.
Showers are expected to redevelop Mon morning as an upper low
approaches from the N.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Surface Low off Cape Hatteras Monday
morning will track to the north and eventually will get captured
by the upper low also lifting to the north. A weakly tightened sfc
pg initially will yield n winds backing to nw at 10 to
occasionally 15 kt across the NC waters. With the captured low
further departing Monday night thru Tuesday and weak high pressure
settling across the area waters, winds will further back to the
West Mon night into Tue, and SW late Tue into Tue night. The sfc
pg will further relax yielding wind speeds around 10 kt at best.

Significant seas will run basically be around 3 feet. Seas will
subside from 2 to 3 ft at the start of Tue to around 2 ft Tue night.
An ESE ground swell at 8 to occasionally 9 second periods will
dominate the significant seas into Tue with locally produced wind
waves becoming more evident during Tue thru Tue Night.

Convection will be ongoing Monday morning. Any of the isolated
thunderstorms that occur will be capable of producing brief wind
gusts up to 25 kt, and even pea size hail along the immediate coast
only.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS of 300 PM Sunday...Bermuda high pressure will dominate the
synoptic regime through the end of the week. This drives
persistent S/SW winds across the waters...and as the gradient
remains light...speeds will peak around 10 kt each day. Seas
within this regime will be rather uniform through the period...2-3
ft with a 2 ft/8 sec SE wave and 2 ft/4 sec SW wave comprising the
spectrum.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RAN/8





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