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000
FXUS62 KILM 241516
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1116 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN STRONG UPPER LOW FORCES A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1115 AM THURSDAY...FULL-BORE SUNSHINE-MINUTES RACKING UP ON
THE SOLAR COUNTER TODAY. THIN SHREDS OF CIRRUS MAY SAIL OVERHEAD
LATER IN THE DAY BUT NO IMPACTS OFF-SETTING A SUNNY FORECAST WITH
MAXIMUMS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE. COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY HOLD IN THE
UPPER 60SS DUE TO CHILLY INSHORE SSTS...AND THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATING OFFSHORE WILL GUIDE WINDS ONSHORE INLAND DURING THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCAL MARINE-INFLUENCED COOLING.

FAIR CONDITIONS INTO EVENING AND SETTLING OF THE MARINE AIR UNDER
CLEAR SKIES COULD PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN PROTECTED POCKETS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT MAY PROVIDE AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS WELL AS
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE REALIZED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND
AN A-TYPICAL HOURLY TEMP CURVE APPEARS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
AND CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE COULD TRIP OFF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST AFTER 9Z...AND WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN
ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM GGE TO MYR TO SUT TO COASTAL NEW HANOVER AND
PENDER COUNTIES INTO DAYBREAK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING FARTHER NORTH
PRODUCING LESS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION REACHING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE NORTH OF
AREA BUT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH FRI AFTN AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF AREA AND UP TO 1.3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOWN INTO SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTN. LLJ NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE REACHING UP TO 35 KTS
FRI AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF STRONG TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN
GENERAL FRI AFTN INTO THE EVE. SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION LOW END PROB
OF SVR WITH EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE NOT CORRELATING WELL
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS EARLY IN DAY WITH
MINOR CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THEN HIGHER CHC ACROSS
NORTH...LOWER CHC SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH
CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
LIMITED CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE SFC WINDS. A DEEP DRY NW FLOW EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE SEA
BREEZE DOMINATE IN THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL BACK IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND FALLING INTO THE MID 50S SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH MONDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WORKS ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MON THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE AS PCP WATER VALUES
REACH UP TO 1.5 INCHES. MORE APPRECIABLY MOISTURE AND GREATER
SUPPORT LATE TUES INTO WILL INCREASE CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSER TO 80 MOST DAYS
IN WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND GREATER MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 15Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 18
HOURS OR SO...IT THEN WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RESULTANT.
TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WITH A POSSIBLE
MVFR CEILING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT. A
CIRRUS CEILING WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1115 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WILL VEER TO
EASTERLY AND DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE ESE
TO SE...COMING AROUND TO MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 10
KT OR LESS. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4
FT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W-NW. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW
AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SEAS WILL DROP IN THE OFF SHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY...A MORE VARIABLE FLOW WILL SHIFT
AROUND FROM NW EARLY MORNING TO E-SE LATE DAY REMAINING 10 KTS OR
LESS. SEA BREEZE MAY KICK WINDS AND SEAS UP A BIT CLOSE TO THE COAST
SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY LATE
SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS MOST OF
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS
INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY TUES MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL






000
FXUS62 KILM 241053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK AND LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW
DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING STRONGLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE N THIS MORNING. THERE WAS A RATHER LARGE RANGE IN
TEMPS AT SUNRISE...LOWER TO MID 40S WERE MOST COMMON ALONG AND N OF
A LINE FROM BENNETTSVILLE AND LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN AND BURGAW.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BEGIN THE DAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH JUST A FEW COOLER POCKETS OF MID 40S. BRIGHT LATE
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE RATHER SHORT ORDER OF THE MORNING CHILL...
BUT WE WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF HIGHS REACHED WED AFTERNOON...AND
THE SHORTFALL WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVERHEAD MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST...A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AND NE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL VEER TO EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO SE LATE DAY AND
THIS EVE. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WE
SHOULD START TO SEE SOME INCREASING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT AS SE TO S FLOW INCREASES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK A
LITTLE STRONG FOR FOG...FAVORING STRATUS OVER FOG. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL MENTION PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE QUICK TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE
DRYNESS OF THE ONGOING AIRMASS AND THE LATENESS OF THE MORE MOIST
RETURN FLOW...OPTED TO SLOW DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS UNTIL DAYBREAK OR FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...NE TO E WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLEST...UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES. THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH FLOW
VEERING TO SE AND MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS A NON-DIURNAL
TEMP CURVE WITH LOWS BEING REACHED IN THE LATE EVE AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN STABILIZING WITH THE APPROACH OF
DAYBREAK IF NOT RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE 50S...LOWER 50S N OF A LBT TO ILM LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING FARTHER NORTH
PRODUCING LESS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION REACHING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE NORTH OF
AREA BUT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH FRI AFTN AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF AREA AND UP TO 1.3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOWN INTO SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTN. LLJ NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE REACHING UP TO 35 KTS
FRI AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF STRONG TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN
GENERAL FRI AFTN INTO THE EVE. SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION LOW END PROB
OF SVR WITH EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE NOT CORRELATING WELL
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS EARLY IN DAY WITH
MINOR CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THEN HIGHER CHC ACROSS
NORTH...LOWER CHC SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH
CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
LIMITED CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE SFC WINDS. A DEEP DRY NW FLOW EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE SEA
BREEZE DOMINATE IN THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL BACK IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND FALLING INTO THE MID 50S SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH MONDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WORKS ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MON THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE AS PCP WATER VALUES
REACH UP TO 1.5 INCHES. MORE APPRECIABLY MOISTURE AND GREATER
SUPPORT LATE TUES INTO WILL INCREASE CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSER TO 80 MOST DAYS
IN WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND GREATER MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS
OR SO...IT THEN WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RESULTANT.
TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WITH A POSSIBLE
MVFR CEILING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT. A
CIRRUS CEILING WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS
THIS MORNING...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL VEER TO EASTERLY AND DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE ESE TO SE...COMING AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS. THE HIGHEST
SEAS WILL BE THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W-NW. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW
AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SEAS WILL DROP IN THE OFF SHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY...A MORE VARIABLE FLOW WILL SHIFT
AROUND FROM NW EARLY MORNING TO E-SE LATE DAY REMAINING 10 KTS OR
LESS. SEA BREEZE MAY KICK WINDS AND SEAS UP A BIT CLOSE TO THE COAST
SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY LATE
SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS MOST OF
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS
INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY TUES MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43










000
FXUS62 KILM 241041
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK AND LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW
DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING STRONGLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE N THIS MORNING. THERE WAS A RATHER LARGE RANGE IN
TEMPS AT SUNRISE...LOWER TO MID 40S WERE MOST COMMON ALONG AND N OF
A LINE FROM BENNETTSVILLE AND LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN AND BURGAW.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BEGIN THE DAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH JUST A FEW COOLER POCKETS OF MID 40S. BRIGHT LATE
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE RATHER SHORT ORDER OF THE MORNING CHILL...
BUT WE WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF HIGHS REACHED WED AFTERNOON...AND
THE SHORTFALL WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVERHEAD MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST...A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AND NE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL VEER TO EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO SE LATE DAY AND
THIS EVE. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WE
SHOULD START TO SEE SOME INCREASING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT AS SE TO S FLOW INCREASES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK A
LITTLE STRONG FOR FOG...FAVORING STRATUS OVER FOG. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL MENTION PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE QUICK TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE
DRYNESS OF THE ONGOING AIRMASS AND THE LATENESS OF THE MORE MOIST
RETURN FLOW...OPTED TO SLOW DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS UNTIL DAYBREAK OR FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...NE TO E WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLEST...UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES. THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH FLOW
VEERING TO SE AND MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS A NON-DIURNAL
TEMP CURVE WITH LOWS BEING REACHED IN THE LATE EVE AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN STABILIZING WITH THE APPROACH OF
DAYBREAK IF NOT RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE 50S...LOWER 50S N OF A LBT TO ILM LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING FARTHER NORTH
PRODUCING LESS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION REACHING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE NORTH OF
AREA BUT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH FRI AFTN AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF AREA AND UP TO 1.3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOWN INTO SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTN. LLJ NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE REACHING UP TO 35 KTS
FRI AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF STRONG TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN
GENERAL FRI AFTN INTO THE EVE. SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION LOW END PROB
OF SVR WITH EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE NOT CORRELATING WELL
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS EARLY IN DAY WITH
MINOR CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THEN HIGHER CHC ACROSS
NORTH...LOWER CHC SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH
CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
LIMITED CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE SFC WINDS. A DEEP DRY NW FLOW EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE SEA
BREEZE DOMINATE IN THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL BACK IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND FALLING INTO THE MID 50S SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH MONDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WORKS ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MON THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE AS PCP WATER VALUES
REACH UP TO 1.5 INCHES. MORE APPRECIABLY MOISTURE AND GREATER
SUPPORT LATE TUES INTO WILL INCREASE CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSER TO 80 MOST DAYS
IN WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND GREATER MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT INTERMITTENT FOG AT
KCRE FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTH
WINDS AOB 10 KTS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER SHOULD NOTE KCRE HAD SOME MVFR/IFR FOG
EARLIER THIS EVENING AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE CLOSE...BUT
VARYING RESTRICTIONS HAVE LEAD TO A LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON
AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS
THIS MORNING...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL VEER TO EASTERLY AND DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE ESE TO SE...COMING AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS. THE HIGHEST
SEAS WILL BE THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W-NW. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW
AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SEAS WILL DROP IN THE OFF SHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY...A MORE VARIABLE FLOW WILL SHIFT
AROUND FROM NW EARLY MORNING TO E-SE LATE DAY REMAINING 10 KTS OR
LESS. SEA BREEZE MAY KICK WINDS AND SEAS UP A BIT CLOSE TO THE COAST
SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY LATE
SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS MOST OF
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS
INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY TUES MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 240823
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
341 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TODAY...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING STRONGLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE N THIS MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. BRIGHT LATE APRIL SUNSHINE WILL GO TO
WORK ON TEMPS WHICH WILL BEGIN THE DAY WELL DOWN IN THE 40S. THE
HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVERHEAD MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST...A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AND NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
TO EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO SE LATE DAY AND THIS EVE.
THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WE SHOULD START
TO SEE SOME INCREASING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AS SE TO
S FLOW INCREASES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE STRONG FOR
FOG...FAVORING STRATUS OVER FOG. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WILL BEGIN MENTIONING PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE QUICK TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE
DRYNESS OF THE ONGOING AIRMASS AND THE LATENESS OF THE MORE MOIST
RETURN FLOW...OPTED TO SLOW DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS UNTIL DAYBREAK OR FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...NE TO E WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLEST...UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES. THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH FLOW
VEERING TO SE AND MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS A NON-DIURNAL
TEMP CURVE WITH LOWS BEING REACHED IN THE LATE EVE AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN STABILIZING WITH THE APPROACH OF
DAYBREAK IF NOT RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE 50S...LOWER 50S N OF A LBT TO ILM LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING FARTHER NORTH
PRODUCING LESS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION REACHING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE NORTH OF
AREA BUT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH FRI AFTN AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF AREA AND UP TO 1.3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOWN INTO SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTN. LLJ NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE REACHING UP TO 35 KTS
FRI AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF STRONG TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN
GENERAL FRI AFTN INTO THE EVE. SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION LOW END PROB
OF SVR WITH EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE NOT CORRELATING WELL
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS EARLY IN DAY WITH
MINOR CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THEN HIGHER CHC ACROSS
NORTH...LOWER CHC SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH
CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
LIMITED CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE SFC WINDS. A DEEP DRY NW FLOW EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE SEA
BREEZE DOMINATE IN THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL BACK IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND FALLING INTO THE MID 50S SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH MONDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WORKS ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MON THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE AS PCP WATER VALUES
REACH UP TO 1.5 INCHES. MORE APPRECIABLY MOISTURE AND GREATER
SUPPORT LATE TUES INTO WILL INCREASE CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSER TO 80 MOST DAYS
IN WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND GREATER MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT INTERMITTENT FOG AT
KCRE FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTH
WINDS AOB 10 KTS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER SHOULD NOTE KCRE HAD SOME MVFR/IFR FOG
EARLIER THIS EVENING AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE CLOSE...BUT
VARYING RESTRICTIONS HAVE LEAD TO A LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON
AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS
THIS MORNING...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL VEER TO EASTERLY AND DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE ESE TO SE...COMING AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS. THE HIGHEST
SEAS WILL BE THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W-NW. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW
AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SEAS WILL DROP IN THE OFF SHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY...A MORE VARIABLE FLOW WILL SHIFT
AROUND FROM NW EARLY MORNING TO E-SE LATE DAY REMAINING 10 KTS OR
LESS. SEA BREEZE MAY KICK WINDS AND SEAS UP A BIT CLOSE TO THE COAST
SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY LATE
SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS MOST OF
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS
INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY TUES MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/SGL














000
FXUS62 KILM 240741
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
341 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TODAY...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING STRONGLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE N THIS MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. BRIGHT LATE APRIL SUNSHINE WILL GO TO
WORK ON TEMPS WHICH WILL BEGIN THE DAY WELL DOWN IN THE 40S. THE
HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVERHEAD MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST...A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AND NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
TO EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO SE LATE DAY AND THIS EVE.
THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WE SHOULD START
TO SEE SOME INCREASING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AS SE TO
S FLOW INCREASES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE STRONG FOR
FOG...FAVORING STRATUS OVER FOG. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WILL BEGIN MENTIONING PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE QUICK TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE
DRYNESS OF THE ONGOING AIRMASS AND THE LATENESS OF THE MORE MOIST
RETURN FLOW...OPTED TO SLOW DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS UNTIL DAYBREAK OR FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...NE TO E WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLEST...UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES. THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH FLOW
VEERING TO SE AND MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS A NON-DIURNAL
TEMP CURVE WITH LOWS BEING REACHED IN THE LATE EVE AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN STABILIZING WITH THE APPROACH OF
DAYBREAK IF NOT RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE 50S...LOWER 50S N OF A LBT TO ILM LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING FARTHER NORTH
PRODUCING LESS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION REACHING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE NORTH OF
AREA BUT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH FRI AFTN AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF AREA AND UP TO 1.3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOWN INTO SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTN. LLJ NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE REACHING UP TO 35 KTS
FRI AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF STRONG TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSMS IN
GENERAL FRI AFTN INTO THE EVE. SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION LOW END PROB
OF SVR WITH EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE NOT CORRELATING WELL
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS EARLY IN DAY WITH
MINOR CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THEN HIGHER CHC ACROSS
NORTH...LOWER CHC SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH
CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
LIMITED CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE SFC WINDS. A DEEP DRY NW FLOW EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE SEA
BREEZE DOMINATE IN THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL BACK IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND FALLING INTO THE MID 50S SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH MONDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WORKS ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MON THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE AS PCP WATER VALUES
REACH UP TO 1.5 INCHES. MORE APPRECIABLY MOISTURE AND GREATER
SUPPORT LATE TUES INTO WILL INCREASE CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSER TO 80 MOST DAYS
IN WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND GREATER MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT INTERMITTENT FOG AT
KCRE FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTH
WINDS AOB 10 KTS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER SHOULD NOTE KCRE HAD SOME MVFR/IFR FOG
EARLIER THIS EVENING AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE CLOSE...BUT
VARYING RESTRICTIONS HAVE LEAD TO A LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON
AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS
THIS MORNING...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL VEER TO EASTERLY AND DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE ESE TO SE...COMING AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS. THE HIGHEST
SEAS WILL BE THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER EAST IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE
WIND-WAVE DOMINATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUILDING TO 3-4 FT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN IN THE
OFF SHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PREVAILS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A NICE PERIOD FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NW TO W-SW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY
LATE SUNDAY AND INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10-15
KTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEGINNING TO INCREASE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY PUSH UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY TUES
MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/SGL











000
FXUS62 KILM 240557
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
156 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
DURING FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY...
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE FURTHER REFINED TEMPERATURE CURVE IN
THE GRIDDED DATABASE...THIS TIME DOWNWARD...TO ACCOUNT FOR QUICK
EVENING COOL-DOWN. NO CHANGES OTHERWISE TO THE TEXT ZONE PRODUCT
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. EXPECT A CLEAR AND VERY COOL OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

AFTER A SPARKLING APRIL DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK THURSDAY UNDER A
UNOBSTRUCTED CELESTIAL DOME AND A COOL AND DRY RESIDENT AIR MASS.
MINIMUMS AROUND 40 OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER FROM HOLLY SHELTER TO
ELIZABETHTOWN TO ST PAULS TO BENNETTSVILLE IS EXPECTED...MIDDLE
40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPPERS 40S TO AROUND 50 AT THE
BEACHES. THE CLEAR AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VIEWING OF THE
LYRIDS METEOR SHOWER...WHICH ALTHOUGH IS JUST PAST PEAK DOES
CONTINUE TO OFFER A NIGHT SHOWING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW
WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SUSTAIN MODERATE SPEEDS. THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RUN 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL MAKE THURSDAY A BEAUTIFUL DAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTH...BECOMING SE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL WARMING...AND HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW CLIMO...LOW 70S MOST PLACES. AMPLE LATE-
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE IT FEEL WARMER THAN THAT HOWEVER. HIGH
SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INTRODUCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING ONLY INTO
THE MID AND UPR 50S. MINS MAY ACTUALLY BE REACHED MID-OVERNIGHT
AND START TO CLIMB TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...AND HAVE SHOWN A
SLIGHTLY ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE IN THE HOURLIES.

FRIDAY GETS MORE INTERESTING. HIGH OFFSHORE LETS WARM/MOIST RETURN
FLOW FLOOD INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A 5H IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT.
WHILE THIS IMPULSE WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...AND WILL CROSS A BIT EARLY TO TAP MAXIMUM
HEATING...CONVECTION IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE EARLY CROSSING
OF THE IMPULSE MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING
PEAK HEATING...KEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAK EVEN WITH SBCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND LLJ WINDS NEARING 40 KTS. SPC HAS THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A "SEE TEXT" IN THE SWODY3...BUT AT THIS TIME SEE ONLY A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POP AT HIGH CHC
ACROSS THE NORTH...LOW CHC SOUTH HOWEVER. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL JUMP
WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THANKS TO ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON
THE EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...IT STILL LOOKS RATHER NICE AND UNEVENTFUL FOR OUR
AREA AS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALLOW A WEDGE FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTH SUNDAY. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS FOR MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
STARTS TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING. AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE LOW...MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP DRY. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN
PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT INTERMITTENT FOG AT
KCRE FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTH
WINDS AOB 10 KTS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER SHOULD NOTE KCRE HAD SOME MVFR/IFR FOG
EARLIER THIS EVENING AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE CLOSE...BUT
VARYING RESTRICTIONS HAVE LEAD TO A LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON
AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...SEAS STILL AROUND 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE
WATERS. NO FURTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY HAVE KEPT INSHORE SEAS TAME AND MOSTLY
FLATTENED...WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE MORE CHOP AND SEA-HEIGHTS
AROUND 3 FEET IN A SHORT-PERIOD PITCH PREVAILED. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NW WINDS WILL TEND MORE TO TRUE NORTH WITH
MODERATE WIND-SPEEDS SUSTAINED AND OUTER WATERS MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO 20 KT GUSTS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO ADVISORIES
EXPECTED AS SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OFFSHORE. WEAK SE
SWELL OF 1 FOOT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND NORTHERLY CHOP. NO TSTMS
OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING OFFSHORE FRIDAY WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS
ON THURSDAY OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH DIRECTION VEERING FROM NE
THURSDAY MORNING...TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15-20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...TURNING
WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE WIND-WAVE DOMINATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS EXPECTED
THURSDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN ON THE NW WINDS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A NICE PERIOD FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY. FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS BRIEFLY TO 10-15
KNOTS. FINALLY FOR MONDAY...WINDS WILL TURN ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL/RJD







000
FXUS62 KILM 240212
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1012 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE FURTHER REFINED TEMPERATURE CURVE
IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE...THIS TIME DOWNWARD...TO ACCOUNT FOR
QUICK EVENING COOL-DOWN. NO CHANGES OTHERWISE TO THE TEXT ZONE
PRODUCT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. EXPECT A CLEAR AND VERY COOL
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

AFTER A SPARKLING APRIL DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK THURSDAY UNDER A
UNOBSTRUCTED CELESTIAL DOME AND A COOL AND DRY RESIDENT AIR MASS.
MINIMUMS AROUND 40 OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER FROM HOLLY SHELTER TO
ELIZABETHTOWN TO ST PAULS TO BENNETTSVILLE IS EXPECTED...MIDDLE
40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPPERS 40S TO AROUND 50 AT THE
BEACHES. THE CLEAR AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VIEWING OF THE
LYRIDS METEOR SHOWER...WHICH ALTHOUGH IS JUST PAST PEAK DOES
CONTINUE TO OFFER A NIGHT SHOWING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW
WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SUSTAIN MODERATE SPEEDS. THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RUN 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL MAKE THURSDAY A BEAUTIFUL DAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTH...BECOMING SE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL WARMING...AND HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW CLIMO...LOW 70S MOST PLACES. AMPLE LATE-
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE IT FEEL WARMER THAN THAT HOWEVER. HIGH
SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INTRODUCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING ONLY INTO
THE MID AND UPR 50S. MINS MAY ACTUALLY BE REACHED MID-OVERNIGHT
AND START TO CLIMB TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...AND HAVE SHOWN A
SLIGHTLY ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE IN THE HOURLIES.

FRIDAY GETS MORE INTERESTING. HIGH OFFSHORE LETS WARM/MOIST RETURN
FLOW FLOOD INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A 5H IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT.
WHILE THIS IMPULSE WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...AND WILL CROSS A BIT EARLY TO TAP MAXIMUM
HEATING...CONVECTION IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE EARLY CROSSING
OF THE IMPULSE MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING
PEAK HEATING...KEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAK EVEN WITH SBCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND LLJ WINDS NEARING 40 KTS. SPC HAS THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A "SEE TEXT" IN THE SWODY3...BUT AT THIS TIME SEE ONLY A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POP AT HIGH CHC
ACROSS THE NORTH...LOW CHC SOUTH HOWEVER. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL JUMP
WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THANKS TO ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON
THE EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...IT STILL LOOKS RATHER NICE AND UNEVENTFUL FOR OUR
AREA AS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALLOW A WEDGE FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTH SUNDAY. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS FOR MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
STARTS TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING. AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE LOW...MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP DRY. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN
PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTH
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND DRY LOW LEVELS.
THURSDAY...VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AOB 10
KTS...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...SEAS STILL AROUND 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE
WATERS. NO FURTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY HAVE KEPT INSHORE SEAS TAME AND MOSTLY
FLATTENED...WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE MORE CHOP AND SEA-HEIGHTS
AROUND 3 FEET IN A SHORT-PERIOD PITCH PREVAILED. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NW WINDS WILL TEND MORE TO TRUE NORTH WITH
MODERATE WIND-SPEEDS SUSTAINED AND OUTER WATERS MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO 20 KT GUSTS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO ADVISORIES
EXPECTED AS SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OFFSHORE. WEAK SE
SWELL OF 1 FOOT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND NORTHERLY CHOP. NO TSTMS
OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING OFFSHORE FRIDAY WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS
ON THURSDAY OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH DIRECTION VEERING FROM NE
THURSDAY MORNING...TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15-20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...TURNING
WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE WIND-WAVE DOMINATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS EXPECTED
THURSDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN ON THE NW WINDS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A NICE PERIOD FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY. FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS BRIEFLY TO 10-15
KNOTS. FINALLY FOR MONDAY...WINDS WILL TURN ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK/JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK







000
FXUS62 KILM 232348
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
748 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:45 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE IN
THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY. NO CHANGES TO THE TEXT ZONE
PRODUCT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AFTER A SPARKLING APRIL DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK THURSDAY UNDER A
UNOBSTRUCTED CELESTIAL DOME AND A COOL AND DRY RESIDENT AIR MASS.
MINIMUMS AROUND 40 OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER FROM HOLLY SHELTER TO
ELIZABETHTOWN TO ST PAULS TO BENNETTSVILLE IS EXPECTED...MIDDLE
40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPPERS 40S TO AROUND 50 AT THE
BEACHES. THE CLEAR AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VIEWING OF THE
LYRIDS METEOR SHOWER...WHICH ALTHOUGH IS JUST PAST PEAK DOES
CONTINUE TO OFFER A NIGHT SHOWING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW
WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SUSTAIN MODERATE SPEEDS. THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RUN 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL MAKE THURSDAY A BEAUTIFUL DAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTH...BECOMING SE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL WARMING...AND HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW CLIMO...LOW 70S MOST PLACES. AMPLE LATE-
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE IT FEEL WARMER THAN THAT HOWEVER. HIGH
SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INTRODUCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING ONLY INTO
THE MID AND UPR 50S. MINS MAY ACTUALLY BE REACHED MID-OVERNIGHT
AND START TO CLIMB TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...AND HAVE SHOWN A
SLIGHTLY ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE IN THE HOURLIES.

FRIDAY GETS MORE INTERESTING. HIGH OFFSHORE LETS WARM/MOIST RETURN
FLOW FLOOD INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A 5H IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT.
WHILE THIS IMPULSE WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...AND WILL CROSS A BIT EARLY TO TAP MAXIMUM
HEATING...CONVECTION IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE EARLY CROSSING
OF THE IMPULSE MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING
PEAK HEATING...KEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAK EVEN WITH SBCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND LLJ WINDS NEARING 40 KTS. SPC HAS THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A "SEE TEXT" IN THE SWODY3...BUT AT THIS TIME SEE ONLY A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POP AT HIGH CHC
ACROSS THE NORTH...LOW CHC SOUTH HOWEVER. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL JUMP
WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THANKS TO ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON
THE EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...IT STILL LOOKS RATHER NICE AND UNEVENTFUL FOR OUR
AREA AS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALLOW A WEDGE FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTH SUNDAY. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS FOR MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
STARTS TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING. AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE LOW...MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP DRY. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN
PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTH
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND DRY LOW LEVELS.
THURSDAY...VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AOB 10
KTS...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:45 PM WEDNESDAY...SEAS DOWN TO AROUND 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE
WATERS SO HAVE CAPPED THEM ACCORDINGLY IN THE LATEST UPDATE. THAT
IS THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY HAVE KEPT INSHORE SEAS TAME AND MOSTLY
FLATTENED...WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE MORE CHOP AND SEA-HEIGHTS
AROUND 3 FEET IN A SHORT-PERIOD PITCH PREVAILED. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NW WINDS WILL TEND MORE TO TRUE NORTH WITH
MODERATE WIND-SPEEDS SUSTAINED AND OUTER WATERS MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO 20 KT GUSTS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO ADVISORIES
EXPECTED AS SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OFFSHORE. WEAK SE
SWELL OF 1 FOOT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND NORTHERLY CHOP. NO TSTMS
OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING OFFSHORE FRIDAY WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS
ON THURSDAY OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH DIRECTION VEERING FROM NE
THURSDAY MORNING...TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15-20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...TURNING
WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE WIND-WAVE DOMINATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS EXPECTED
THURSDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN ON THE NW WINDS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A NICE PERIOD FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY. FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS BRIEFLY TO 10-15
KNOTS. FINALLY FOR MONDAY...WINDS WILL TURN ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK/JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK






000
FXUS62 KILM 232324
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
724 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...AFTER A SPARKLING APRIL DAY WITH UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK THURSDAY UNDER A UNOBSTRUCTED CELESTIAL DOME AND A
COOL AND DRY RESIDENT AIR MASS. MINIMUMS AROUND 40 OVER OUR
NORTHERN TIER FROM HOLLY SHELTER TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO ST PAULS TO
BENNETTSVILLE IS EXPECTED...MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND UPPERS 40S TO AROUND 50 AT THE BEACHES. THE CLEAR AND DRY AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VIEWING OF THE LYRIDS METEOR SHOWER...WHICH
ALTHOUGH IS JUST PAST PEAK DOES CONTINUE TO OFFER A NIGHT SHOWING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW
WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SUSTAIN MODERATE SPEEDS. THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RUN 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL MAKE THURSDAY A BEAUTIFUL DAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTH...BECOMING SE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL WARMING...AND HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW CLIMO...LOW 70S MOST PLACES. AMPLE LATE-
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE IT FEEL WARMER THAN THAT HOWEVER. HIGH
SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INTRODUCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING ONLY INTO
THE MID AND UPR 50S. MINS MAY ACTUALLY BE REACHED MID-OVERNIGHT
AND START TO CLIMB TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...AND HAVE SHOWN A
SLIGHTLY ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE IN THE HOURLIES.

FRIDAY GETS MORE INTERESTING. HIGH OFFSHORE LETS WARM/MOIST RETURN
FLOW FLOOD INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A 5H IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT.
WHILE THIS IMPULSE WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...AND WILL CROSS A BIT EARLY TO TAP MAXIMUM
HEATING...CONVECTION IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE EARLY CROSSING
OF THE IMPULSE MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING
PEAK HEATING...KEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAK EVEN WITH SBCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND LLJ WINDS NEARING 40 KTS. SPC HAS THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A "SEE TEXT" IN THE SWODY3...BUT AT THIS TIME SEE ONLY A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POP AT HIGH CHC
ACROSS THE NORTH...LOW CHC SOUTH HOWEVER. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL JUMP
WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THANKS TO ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON
THE EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...IT STILL LOOKS RATHER NICE AND UNEVENTFUL FOR OUR
AREA AS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALLOW A WEDGE FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTH SUNDAY. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS FOR MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
STARTS TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING. AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE LOW...MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP DRY. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN
PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTH
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND DRY LOW LEVELS.
THURSDAY...VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AOB 10
KTS...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY HAVE KEPT INSHORE
SEAS TAME AND MOSTLY FLATTENED...WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE MORE CHOP
AND SEA-HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FEET IN A SHORT-PERIOD PITCH PREVAILED.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NW WINDS WILL TEND MORE TO TRUE
NORTH WITH MODERATE WIND-SPEEDS SUSTAINED AND OUTER WATERS MAY
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO 20 KT GUSTS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO
ADVISORIES EXPECTED AS SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OFFSHORE.
WEAK SE SWELL OF 1 FOOT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND NORTHERLY CHOP.
NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING OFFSHORE FRIDAY WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS
ON THURSDAY OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH DIRECTION VEERING FROM NE
THURSDAY MORNING...TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15-20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...TURNING
WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE WIND-WAVE DOMINATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS EXPECTED
THURSDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN ON THE NW WINDS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A NICE PERIOD FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY. FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS BRIEFLY TO 10-15
KNOTS. FINALLY FOR MONDAY...WINDS WILL TURN ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 231939
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
339 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...AFTER A SPARKLING APRIL DAY WITH UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK THURSDAY UNDER A UNOBSTRUCTED CELESTIAL DOME AND A
COOL AND DRY RESIDENT AIR MASS. MINIMUMS AROUND 40 OVER OUR
NORTHERN TIER FROM HOLLY SHELTER TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO ST PAULS TO
BENNETTSVILLE IS EXPECTED...MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND UPPERS 40S TO AROUND 50 AT THE BEACHES. THE CLEAR AND DRY AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VIEWING OF THE LYRIDS METEOR SHOWER...WHICH
ALTHOUGH IS JUST PAST PEAK DOES CONTINUE TO OFFER A NIGHT SHOWING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW
WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SUSTAIN MODERATE SPEEDS. THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RUN 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL MAKE THURSDAY A BEAUTIFUL DAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTH...BECOMING SE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL WARMING...AND HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW CLIMO...LOW 70S MOST PLACES. AMPLE LATE-
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE IT FEEL WARMER THAN THAT HOWEVER. HIGH
SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INTRODUCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING ONLY INTO
THE MID AND UPR 50S. MINS MAY ACTUALLY BE REACHED MID-OVERNIGHT
AND START TO CLIMB TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...AND HAVE SHOWN A
SLIGHTLY ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE IN THE HOURLIES.

FRIDAY GETS MORE INTERESTING. HIGH OFFSHORE LETS WARM/MOIST RETURN
FLOW FLOOD INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A 5H IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT.
WHILE THIS IMPULSE WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...AND WILL CROSS A BIT EARLY TO TAP MAXIMUM
HEATING...CONVECTION IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE EARLY CROSSING
OF THE IMPULSE MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING
PEAK HEATING...KEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAK EVEN WITH SBCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND LLJ WINDS NEARING 40 KTS. SPC HAS THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A "SEE TEXT" IN THE SWODY3...BUT AT THIS TIME SEE ONLY A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POP AT HIGH CHC
ACROSS THE NORTH...LOW CHC SOUTH HOWEVER. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL JUMP
WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THANKS TO ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON
THE EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...IT STILL LOOKS RATHER NICE AND UNEVENTFUL FOR OUR
AREA AS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALLOW A WEDGE FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTH SUNDAY. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS FOR MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
STARTS TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING. AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE LOW...MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP DRY. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN
PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
TODAY WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z
THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME N-NE AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US CLOUD-FREE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN
OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO
MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 15-18Z...REMAINING AOB 10
KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO
MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY HAVE KEPT INSHORE
SEAS TAME AND MOSTLY FLATTENED...WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE MORE CHOP
AND SEA-HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FEET IN A SHORT-PERIOD PITCH PREVAILED.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NW WINDS WILL TEND MORE TO TRUE
NORTH WITH MODERATE WIND-SPEEDS SUSTAINED AND OUTER WATERS MAY
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO 20 KT GUSTS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO
ADVISORIES EXPECTED AS SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OFFSHORE.
WEAK SE SWELL OF 1 FOOT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND NORTHERLY CHOP.
NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING OFFSHORE FRIDAY WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS
ON THURSDAY OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH DIRECTION VEERING FROM NE
THURSDAY MORNING...TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15-20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...TURNING
WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE WIND-WAVE DOMINATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS EXPECTED
THURSDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN ON THE NW WINDS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A NICE PERIOD FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY. FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS BRIEFLY TO 10-15
KNOTS. FINALLY FOR MONDAY...WINDS WILL TURN ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/BJR
MARINE...MJC/JDW/SHK










000
FXUS62 KILM 231719
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
114 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 114 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO BUMP-UP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES NEAR
THE COAST IN OFFSHORE AND DOWN-SLOPED WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE ALL
FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES
TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR SHOULD HEAT UP
EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE
N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. HAVE
REISSUED THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR
SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR
AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR
COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S
WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR
INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
TODAY WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z
THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME N-NE AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US CLOUD-FREE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN
OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO
MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 15-18Z...REMAINING AOB 10
KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO
MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 114 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVED OFFSHORE AND IN ITS
WINDS NW. THERE WILL BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT
TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP UP A FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT
GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW AT THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH
SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START
INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3
FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN
S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW
AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO
4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/MJC











000
FXUS62 KILM 231714
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
114 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY...AHEAD AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 114 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO BUMP-UP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES NEAR
THE COAST IN OFFSHORE AND DOWN-SLOPED WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE ALL
FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES
TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR SHOULD HEAT UP
EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE
N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. HAVE
REISSUED THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR
SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR
AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR
COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S
WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR
INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
TODAY WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z
THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME N-NE AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US CLOUD-FREE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN
OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO
MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 15-18Z...REMAINING AOB 10
KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO
MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 114 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVED OFFSHORE AND IN ITS
WINDS NW. THERE WILL BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT
TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP UP A FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT
GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW AT THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH
SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START
INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3
FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN
S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW
AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO
4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/MJC








000
FXUS62 KILM 231557
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1157 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL COME ON FRIDAY AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1157 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO BUMP-UP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES NEAR
THE COAST IN OFFSHORE AND DOWN-SLOPED WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE ALL
FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES
TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR SHOULD HEAT UP
EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE
N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. HAVE
REISSUED THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR
SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR
AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR
COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S
WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR
INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 16Z...PATCHY AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE THE FRONT IS BEARING DOWN ON OUR CWA...SO
ANY LINGERING RESTRICTIONS AFTER 12Z WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE
DRIER AIR BEGINS INFILTRATING OUR AREA. WILL INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD
OF TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KMYR BASED ON 11-3.9U IMAGERY...AND TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS ELSEWHERE. VFR WILL PREVAIL FOLLOWING FROPA THIS
MORNING AS WEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS BECOME N-NW 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CAROLINAS. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME
N-NE AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO
MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1157 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVED OFFSHORE AND IN ITS
WINDS NW. THERE WILL BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT
TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP UP A FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT
GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW AT THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH
SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START
INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3
FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN
S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW
AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO
4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR








000
FXUS62 KILM 231128
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
728 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL COME ON FRIDAY AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 8 AM AND DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MORE STRONGLY TONIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
RISES.

INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES
TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DOWN
INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR
SHOULD HEAT UP EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVING FROM THE N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. HAVE
REISSUED THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR
SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR
AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR
COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S
WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR
INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHY AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE THE FRONT IS BEARING DOWN ON OUR CWA...SO ANY
LINGERING RESTRICTIONS AFTER 12Z WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE DRIER
AIR BEGINS INFILTRATING OUR AREA. WILL INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD OF TEMPO
IFR CIGS AT KMYR BASED ON 11-3.9U IMAGERY...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
ELSEWHERE. VFR WILL PREVAIL FOLLOWING FROPA THIS MORNING AS WEST
WINDS AOB 8 KTS BECOME N-NW 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE BY 00Z THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME N-NE AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO
MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AND IN ITS WAKE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NW. THERE
WILL BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15
TO 20 KT. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP
UP A FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW
AT THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START
INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3
FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN
S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW
AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO
4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR










000
FXUS62 KILM 231031
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
630 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL COME ON FRIDAY AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 8 AM AND DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MORE STRONGLY TONIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
RISES.

INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES
TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DOWN
INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR
SHOULD HEAT UP EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVING FROM THE N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. HAVE
REISSUED THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR
SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR
AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR
COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S
WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR
INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH SKC ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AND BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS QUICKLY EXITING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA.

PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT LIGHT WSW WINDS TO N AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 8 KT BEFORE DAYBREAK. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL
PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT...SUBSIDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AND IN ITS WAKE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NW. THERE
WILL BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15
TO 20 KT. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP
UP A FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW
AT THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START
INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3
FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN
S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW
AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO
4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 230814 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
353 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL COME ON FRIDAY AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MORE STRONGLY TONIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
RISES.

INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES
TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DOWN
INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR
SHOULD HEAT UP EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVING FROM THE N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. WILL
REISSUE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS SOILS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR
SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR
AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR
COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S
WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR
INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH SKC ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AND BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS QUICKLY EXITING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA.

PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT LIGHT WSW WINDS TO N AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 8 KT BEFORE DAYBREAK. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL
PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT...SUBSIDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AND IN ITS WAKE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NW. THERE
WILL BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15
TO 20 KT. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP
UP A FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW
AT THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START
INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3
FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN
S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW
AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO
4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/SGL













000
FXUS62 KILM 230753
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
353 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL COME ON FRIDAY AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MORE STRONGLY TONIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
RISES.

INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES
TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DOWN
INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR
SHOULD HEAT UP EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVING FROM THE N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. WILL
REISSUE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS SOILS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR
SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR
AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR
COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S
WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR
INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH SKC ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AND BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS QUICKLY EXITING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA.

PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT LIGHT WSW WINDS TO N AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 8 KT BEFORE DAYBREAK. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL
PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT...SUBSIDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AND IN ITS WAKE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO N. THERE WILL
BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KT. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP UP A
FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW AT
THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START
INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3
FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN
S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW
AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO
4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/SGL










000
FXUS62 KILM 230554
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
153 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING AND DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY PASS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING A
SLIGHT COOL-DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HAVE MOVED UP
TIMING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL END AND HAVE DROPPED ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER...ALONG WITH PRETTY MUCH ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
EXPECT REMAINDER OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
BE OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO FOLLOW.
RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT THE AIRMASS
IS WARM BUT NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
HAS BEEN LIMITED BY A DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
SHUTTING OUT BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AND DRIER
AIR WILL BLEED INTO THE REGION. UNDER CLEARING SKIES LOWS SHOULD
REACH 52-58...WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LOVELY APRIL WEATHER ON TAP WED/THU AS POST
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. IF YOU
PREFER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...THESE 2 DAYS MAY RUN A
TOUCH COOL AS WE EXPECT LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST INLAND SE NC AND
MILDEST SC INTERIOR. IF YOU LOVE SUNSHINE...BOTH DAYS WILL OFFER
THE SOUGHT AFTER STAR-RADIATION.

OFFSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE COLDER MARINE LAYER AT BAY
AND MOSTLY POISED OVER THE WATER...WHEREAS BY THURSDAY...WEAKENING
AND VEERING ONSHORE WINDS MAY ALLOW THE COOLER MARINE LAYER TO
BLEED INLAND. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICTS EXCEEDINGLY DRY
AIR PERCHED ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...AND NO POPS
ARE PLANNED BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A ZONAL
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP MORE AMPLITUDE IN TIME. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW MEANDERING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL IN TURN PROVIDE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT MEANDERS BASICALLY ACROSS THE CWA.

I HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW WE DO NOT FORESEE AN EPIC RAINFALL EVENT BUT MORE OF A
NUISANCE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED...FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS PROVIDING POPS FOR FRIDAY. A
DRY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...NO WILD SWINGS WITH EARLY PERIOD
TEMPERATURES SHOWING MORE VARIABILITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN USUAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE RANGE DECREASES WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH SKC ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AND BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS QUICKLY EXITING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA.

PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT LIGHT WSW WINDS TO N AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 8 KT BEFORE DAYBREAK. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL
PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT...SUBSIDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
WESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AS A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS PUSH
OFF THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT
WILL VEER WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FEET AT OUR LOCAL BUOYS IN A MIX
OF 9 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORT PERIOD CHOP. THE SWELL COMPONENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS BECOMING
MORE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SHORT PERIOD COMPONENTS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FRISKY NW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT AND
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. NW
WIND-SPEEDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO EASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHEST SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OUTER PORTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS NOT
MUCH HIGHER THAN 4 FEET...AND 1-2 FEET ALONG THE INSHORE WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE MAINLY COMPOSED OF ESE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SEC
AND A MODERATE NW CHOP WEDNESDAY...BECOMING A LIGHT N-NE CHOP ON
THURSDAY. MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EASING
AND VEERING WINDS THU.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING RATHER INVITING FOR
THE MARINE COMMUNITY...THIS AFTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A QUICK MOVING FRONT FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. THEY WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO
THE WEST AT TEN KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY. THEY WILL REMAIN AT OR
JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY.
SEAS GENERALLY WILL FOLLOW THE WIND FIELDS WITH 3-4 FEET FRIDAY
DROPPING SLIGHTLY SATURDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL/RJD










000
FXUS62 KILM 230229
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1029 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COOLING AND
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY PASS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL-
DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HAVE MOVED
UP TIMING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL END AND HAVE DROPPED ANY MENTION
OF THUNDER...ALONG WITH PRETTY MUCH ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
EXPECT REMAINDER OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BE OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO FOLLOW.
RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT THE AIRMASS
IS WARM BUT NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
HAS BEEN LIMITED BY A DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
SHUTTING OUT BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AND DRIER
AIR WILL BLEED INTO THE REGION. UNDER CLEARING SKIES LOWS SHOULD
REACH 52-58...WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LOVELY APRIL WEATHER ON TAP WED/THU AS POST
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. IF YOU
PREFER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...THESE 2 DAYS MAY RUN A
TOUCH COOL AS WE EXPECT LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST INLAND SE NC AND
MILDEST SC INTERIOR. IF YOU LOVE SUNSHINE...BOTH DAYS WILL OFFER
THE SOUGHT AFTER STAR-RADIATION.

OFFSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE COLDER MARINE LAYER AT BAY
AND MOSTLY POISED OVER THE WATER...WHEREAS BY THURSDAY...WEAKENING
AND VEERING ONSHORE WINDS MAY ALLOW THE COOLER MARINE LAYER TO
BLEED INLAND. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICTS EXCEEDINGLY DRY
AIR PERCHED ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...AND NO POPS
ARE PLANNED BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A ZONAL
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP MORE AMPLITUDE IN TIME. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW MEANDERING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL IN TURN PROVIDE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT MEANDERS BASICALLY ACROSS THE CWA.

I HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW WE DO NOT FORESEE AN EPIC RAINFALL EVENT BUT MORE OF A
NUISANCE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED...FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS PROVIDING POPS FOR FRIDAY. A
DRY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...NO WILD SWINGS WITH EARLY PERIOD
TEMPERATURES SHOWING MORE VARIABILITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN USUAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE RANGE DECREASES WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LATEST RADAR DEPICTS A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
AND CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE INLAND SITES...POSSIBLY HOLDING TOGETHER
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST...BUT COVERAGE OVERALL WILL BE
LIMITED. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH INTERMITTENT
GUSTS 15-20 KTS ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES ALONG WITH
KLBT...WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST AT KFLO. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS EXPECT SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND THE COLD FRONT TO
PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR
AND WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...VFR
WILL PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...SUBSIDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
WESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AS A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS PUSH
OFF THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT
WILL VEER WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FEET AT OUR LOCAL BUOYS IN A MIX
OF 9 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORT PERIOD CHOP. THE SWELL COMPONENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS BECOMING
MORE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SHORT PERIOD COMPONENTS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRISKY NW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT AND
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. NW
WIND-SPEEDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO EASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHEST SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OUTER PORTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS NOT
MUCH HIGHER THAN 4 FEET...AND 1-2 FEET ALONG THE INSHORE WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE MAINLY COMPOSED OF ESE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SEC
AND A MODERATE NW CHOP WEDNESDAY...BECOMING A LIGHT N-NE CHOP ON
THURSDAY. MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EASING
AND VEERING WINDS THU.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING RATHER INVITING FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY...THIS AFTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
QUICK MOVING FRONT FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. THEY WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO THE WEST AT TEN
KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY. THEY WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE THIS
LEVEL UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS GENERALLY
WILL FOLLOW THE WIND FIELDS WITH 3-4 FEET FRIDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/TRA/SHK






000
FXUS62 KILM 222342
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. A COOLING AND DRYING TREND
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS
ACROSS THE COAST LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM TUESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY
VERY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED EMBEDDED MODERATE SHOWERS. NO
LIGHTNING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE
POSSIBILITY ON THE LATEST UPDATE. NO REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 20 KTS YET. EARLIER THOUGHT THAT WE COULD SEE SOME FLARE UPS
WHEN THIS LINE OF CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT...BUT THAT CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED SO DO NOT EXPECT MICH
FROM THIS INTERACTION EITHER. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT THOUGH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...TENNESSEE...AND
NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE
CAROLINA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT THE
AIRMASS IS WARM BUT NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED BY A DEEP WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WHICH IS SHUTTING OUT BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. A 300 MB JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM NORTH CAROLINA INTO NEW
ENGLAND WILL BECOME FAVORABLY LOCATED FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING
TO ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6-8 PM. GIVEN A DEEP DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEARLY 7000 FEET
THICK...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY STABLE
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE COAST...BUT MAY RESTRENGTHEN ONCE IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE.
FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AT THE COAST.

BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AND DRIER
AIR WILL BLEED INTO THE REGION. UNDER CLEARING SKIES LOWS SHOULD
REACH 52-58...WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LOVELY APRIL WEATHER ON TAP WED/THU AS POST
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. IF YOU
PREFER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...THESE 2 DAYS MAY RUN A
TOUCH COOL AS WE EXPECT LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST INLAND SE NC AND
MILDEST SC INTERIOR. IF YOU LOVE SUNSHINE...BOTH DAYS WILL OFFER
THE SOUGHT AFTER STAR-RADIATION.

OFFSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE COLDER MARINE LAYER AT BAY
AND MOSTLY POISED OVER THE WATER...WHEREAS BY THURSDAY...WEAKENING
AND VEERING ONSHORE WINDS MAY ALLOW THE COOLER MARINE LAYER TO
BLEED INLAND. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICTS EXCEEDINGLY DRY
AIR PERCHED ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...AND NO POPS
ARE PLANNED BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A ZONAL
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP MORE AMPLITUDE IN TIME. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW MEANDERING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL IN TURN PROVIDE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT MEANDERS BASICALLY ACROSS THE CWA.

I HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW WE DO NOT FORESEE AN EPIC RAINFALL EVENT BUT MORE OF A
NUISANCE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED...FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS PROVIDING POPS FOR FRIDAY. A
DRY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...NO WILD SWINGS WITH EARLY PERIOD
TEMPERATURES SHOWING MORE VARIABILITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN USUAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE RANGE DECREASES WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LATEST RADAR DEPICTS A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
AND CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE INLAND SITES...POSSIBLY HOLDING TOGETHER
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST...BUT COVERAGE OVERALL WILL BE
LIMITED. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH INTERMITTENT
GUSTS 15-20 KTS ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES ALONG WITH
KLBT...WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST AT KFLO. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS EXPECT SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND THE COLD FRONT TO
PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR
AND WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...VFR
WILL PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...SUBSIDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENED NEARSHORE BY
THE ADDITION OF THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE. IN FACT AT 3 PM WINDS WERE
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND 21 KNOTS AT TOPSAIL
BEACH NC. WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AS A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFF THE COAST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT WILL VEER WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 4 FEET AT OUR LOCAL BUOYS IN A MIX
OF 9 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORT PERIOD CHOP. THE SWELL COMPONENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS BECOMING MORE
WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SHORT PERIOD COMPONENTS.


SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRISKY NW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT AND
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. NW
WIND-SPEEDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO EASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHEST SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OUTER PORTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS NOT
MUCH HIGHER THAN 4 FEET...AND 1-2 FEET ALONG THE INSHORE WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE MAINLY COMPOSED OF ESE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SEC
AND A MODERATE NW CHOP WEDNESDAY...BECOMING A LIGHT N-NE CHOP ON
THURSDAY. MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EASING
AND VEERING WINDS THU.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING RATHER INVITING FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY...THIS AFTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
QUICK MOVING FRONT FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. THEY WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO THE WEST AT TEN
KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY. THEY WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE THIS
LEVEL UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS GENERALLY
WILL FOLLOW THE WIND FIELDS WITH 3-4 FEET FRIDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/TRA/SHK







000
FXUS62 KILM 222330
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
730 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. A COOLING AND DRYING TREND
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS
ACROSS THE COAST LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT THE AIRMASS IS WARM BUT NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED BY A DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WHICH IS SHUTTING OUT BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. A 300 MB JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM NORTH CAROLINA INTO NEW
ENGLAND WILL BECOME FAVORABLY LOCATED FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING
TO ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6-8 PM. GIVEN A DEEP DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEARLY 7000 FEET
THICK...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY STABLE
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE COAST...BUT MAY RESTRENGTHEN ONCE IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE.
FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AT THE COAST.

BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AND DRIER
AIR WILL BLEED INTO THE REGION. UNDER CLEARING SKIES LOWS SHOULD
REACH 52-58...WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LOVELY APRIL WEATHER ON TAP WED/THU AS POST
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. IF YOU
PREFER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...THESE 2 DAYS MAY RUN A
TOUCH COOL AS WE EXPECT LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST INLAND SE NC AND
MILDEST SC INTERIOR. IF YOU LOVE SUNSHINE...BOTH DAYS WILL OFFER
THE SOUGHT AFTER STAR-RADIATION.

OFFSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE COLDER MARINE LAYER AT BAY
AND MOSTLY POISED OVER THE WATER...WHEREAS BY THURSDAY...WEAKENING
AND VEERING ONSHORE WINDS MAY ALLOW THE COOLER MARINE LAYER TO
BLEED INLAND. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICTS EXCEEDINGLY DRY
AIR PERCHED ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...AND NO POPS
ARE PLANNED BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A ZONAL
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP MORE AMPLITUDE IN TIME. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW MEANDERING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL IN TURN PROVIDE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT MEANDERS BASICALLY ACROSS THE CWA.

I HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW WE DO NOT FORESEE AN EPIC RAINFALL EVENT BUT MORE OF A
NUISANCE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED...FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS PROVIDING POPS FOR FRIDAY. A
DRY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...NO WILD SWINGS WITH EARLY PERIOD
TEMPERATURES SHOWING MORE VARIABILITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN USUAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE RANGE DECREASES WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LATEST RADAR DEPICTS A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
AND CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE INLAND SITES...POSSIBLY HOLDING TOGETHER
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST...BUT COVERAGE OVERALL WILL BE
LIMITED. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH INTERMITTENT
GUSTS 15-20 KTS ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES ALONG WITH
KLBT...WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST AT KFLO. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS EXPECT SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND THE COLD FRONT TO
PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR
AND WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...VFR
WILL PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...SUBSIDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENED
NEARSHORE BY THE ADDITION OF THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE. IN FACT AT 3 PM
WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND 21 KNOTS AT
TOPSAIL BEACH NC. WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AS A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFF THE COAST.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT WILL VEER WINDS
MORE NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 4 FEET AT OUR LOCAL BUOYS IN A MIX
OF 9 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORT PERIOD CHOP. THE SWELL COMPONENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS BECOMING MORE
WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SHORT PERIOD COMPONENTS.


SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRISKY NW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT AND
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. NW
WIND-SPEEDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO EASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHEST SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OUTER PORTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS NOT
MUCH HIGHER THAN 4 FEET...AND 1-2 FEET ALONG THE INSHORE WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE MAINLY COMPOSED OF ESE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SEC
AND A MODERATE NW CHOP WEDNESDAY...BECOMING A LIGHT N-NE CHOP ON
THURSDAY. MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EASING
AND VEERING WINDS THU.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING RATHER INVITING FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY...THIS AFTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
QUICK MOVING FRONT FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. THEY WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO THE WEST AT TEN
KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY. THEY WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE THIS
LEVEL UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS GENERALLY
WILL FOLLOW THE WIND FIELDS WITH 3-4 FEET FRIDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 221912
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
312 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. A COOLING AND DRYING TREND
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS
ACROSS THE COAST LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT THE AIRMASS IS WARM BUT NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED BY A DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WHICH IS SHUTTING OUT BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. A 300 MB JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM NORTH CAROLINA INTO NEW
ENGLAND WILL BECOME FAVORABLY LOCATED FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING
TO ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6-8 PM. GIVEN A DEEP DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEARLY 7000 FEET
THICK...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY STABLE
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE COAST...BUT MAY RESTRENGTHEN ONCE IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE.
FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AT THE COAST.

BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AND DRIER
AIR WILL BLEED INTO THE REGION. UNDER CLEARING SKIES LOWS SHOULD
REACH 52-58...WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LOVELY APRIL WEATHER ON TAP WED/THU AS POST
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. IF YOU
PREFER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...THESE 2 DAYS MAY RUN A
TOUCH COOL AS WE EXPECT LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST INLAND SE NC AND
MILDEST SC INTERIOR. IF YOU LOVE SUNSHINE...BOTH DAYS WILL OFFER
THE SOUGHT AFTER STAR-RADIATION.

OFFSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE COLDER MARINE LAYER AT BAY
AND MOSTLY POISED OVER THE WATER...WHEREAS BY THURSDAY...WEAKENING
AND VEERING ONSHORE WINDS MAY ALLOW THE COOLER MARINE LAYER TO
BLEED INLAND. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICTS EXCEEDINGLY DRY
AIR PERCHED ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...AND NO POPS
ARE PLANNED BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A ZONAL
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP MORE AMPLITUDE IN TIME. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW MEANDERING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL IN TURN PROVIDE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT MEANDERS BASICALLY ACROSS THE CWA.

I HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW WE DO NOT FORESEE AN EPIC RAINFALL EVENT BUT MORE OF A
NUISANCE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED...FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS PROVIDING POPS FOR FRIDAY. A
DRY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...NO WILD SWINGS WITH EARLY PERIOD
TEMPERATURES SHOWING MORE VARIABILITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN USUAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE RANGE DECREASES WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...MID LEVEL CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AFTER 18Z...BECOMING 10-15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS STILL DEPICT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR ALL TERMS...BEGINNING AT
KFLO/KLBT AROUND 21Z AND KILM/KCRE/KMYR AROUND 00Z. IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE INLAND TERMS HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING ANY PCPN...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST THIS EVENING
AND THEN NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG THE COAST BY 06Z. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH NORTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENED
NEARSHORE BY THE ADDITION OF THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE. IN FACT AT 3 PM
WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND 21 KNOTS AT
TOPSAIL BEACH NC. WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AS A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFF THE COAST.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT WILL VEER WINDS
MORE NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 4 FEET AT OUR LOCAL BUOYS IN A MIX
OF 9 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORT PERIOD CHOP. THE SWELL COMPONENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS BECOMING MORE
WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SHORT PERIOD COMPONENTS.


SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRISKY NW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT AND
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. NW
WIND-SPEEDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO EASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHEST SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OUTER PORTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS NOT
MUCH HIGHER THAN 4 FEET...AND 1-2 FEET ALONG THE INSHORE WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE MAINLY COMPOSED OF ESE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SEC
AND A MODERATE NW CHOP WEDNESDAY...BECOMING A LIGHT N-NE CHOP ON
THURSDAY. MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EASING
AND VEERING WINDS THU.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING RATHER INVITING FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY...THIS AFTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
QUICK MOVING FRONT FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. THEY WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO THE WEST AT TEN
KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY. THEY WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE THIS
LEVEL UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS GENERALLY
WILL FOLLOW THE WIND FIELDS WITH 3-4 FEET FRIDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR/TRA






000
FXUS62 KILM 221729
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS UP A
DEGREE IN SPOTS WITH THIS EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. ALSO LOOKING AT
THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE I AM IMPRESSED AT THE DEPICTION OF THE 500 MB
DISTURBANCE SWEEPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.
THERE IS EVEN A A FAVORABLY POSITIONED 300 MB JET STREAK AT 300 MB
THAT MAY BE ABLE TO ASSIST WITH CONVECTIVE VENTILATION. I JUST
EXPANDED THE REGION OF 30 POPS A LITTLE LARGER FOR THE EVENING...AND
WILL DIG DEEPER THROUGH THIS NEW SET OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO SEE IF A
LARGER EXPANSION OF SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES NEEDS TO BE MADE FOR THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 AM FOLLOWS...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVED OFF THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CAROLINAS ARE NOW IN A 500-MILE WIDE ZONE OF
WEST-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE RIDGE AND A COLD
FRONT NOW ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

12Z WEATHER BALLOON DATA SHOWS THE 06Z GFS SHOWED TOO MUCH MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700 MB ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE 06Z
NAM AND RUC WERE MUCH CLOSER TO THE OBSERVED VALUES ON THE CHS AND
MHX SOUNDINGS. A BEAUTIFUL ARRAY OF SCATTERED HIGH ALTOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE PRODUCING VIRGA FLURRIES OVER A LARGE SECTION OF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF
MOISTURE AROUND 16000 FT AGL RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY. SEE OUR
NWS ILM FACEBOOK OR TWITTER PAGE FOR A PICTURE.

MODELS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. MODEL CAPE INCREASES TO 400-700 J/KG WITH MOST OF THAT
WAY UP IN THE 700-400 MB LAYER. THE LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...PRODUCED BY THE LACK OF ANY GULF OR ATLANTIC INFLOW...
WILL PROBABLY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. A DEEP DRY MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON REACHING 7000 FEET
INLAND MEANS ANY CB CLOUD BASES ARE GOING TO BE WAY UP THERE...AND
ANY EVAPORATING PRECIPITATION WITHIN THAT DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS PROBABLY AS CLOSE TO A CLASSIC WESTERN
UNITED STATES PATTERN AS YOU`LL SEE IN THE CAROLINAS.

BESIDES TWEAKING TIMING A LITTLE BASED ON THE LATEST SEVERAL HRRR
RUNS...I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS POP DISTRIBUTION FOR
THIS EVENT: 30 POPS INLAND AND 20 AT THE COAST.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THE
SEABREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND SHOULD
ONLY MAKE 15-20 MILES INLAND PROGRESS ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA GIVEN
THE BACKGROUND WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. CLOSER TO HOME WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO BEHIND
TUESDAY NIGHT COOL FRONT BUT THE RAPID DRYING SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD A PRETTY CHILLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DESPITE
SOME BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT HEADING INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH
PUSHES IN FROM THE N AND BRINGS A VERY WEAK SENSE OF CAA. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE CAPPED A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE AS COOL A NIGHT AS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS DEVELOPING
PIEDMONT TROUGH SERVES TO ENHANCE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. IN THE STILL ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES THAT COULD TOUCH OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION. SATURDAY
LOOKS WARM AS WELL WITH LIGHT SWRLY FLOW AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE N. MODELS TEND TO KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO PRECLUDE ANY REAL RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY BUT
THEY DO INDICATE THAT ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS
TEMPER THE WARMTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MID LEVEL CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 18Z...BECOMING 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS STILL DEPICT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN VCSH FOR ALL TERMS...BEGINNING AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 21Z AND
KILM/KCRE/KMYR AROUND 00Z. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE INLAND TERMS HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING ANY PCPN...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE COAST BY 06Z.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH NORTH WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS
AT TIMES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 AM FOLLOWS...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE. THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...PERHAPS PRECEDED BY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SHOWERY WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
FROM 9 PM UNTIL ABOUT 2 AM WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A MODERATE
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP ON TOP OF THE BACKGROUND
WEST-SOUTHWEST 10-12 KNOT WIND...WITH SPEEDS NEAR THE BEACHES
INCREASING TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 15-17 KNOTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
SMALL INCREASE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS WE`LL
SIMPLY BE TRADING A DECREASING LONG-PERIOD SWELL FOR AN INCREASED
SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP AS TIME GOES ON.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE/NWRLY FLOW WEDNESDAY FROM BOTH
EXPANSIVE STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAK HIGH BUILDING INTO
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. AS RIDGE AXIS FROM THIS HIGH POKES INTO THE
CAROLINAS FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK AND SEAS RAPIDLY DROP OFF TO
JUST 2 FT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY
BUT REMAINS PROXIMAL ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUATION OF JUST 2 FT WAVES AS
THE FLOW ACQUIRES A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SWRLY FLOW INITIALLY VERY LIGHT ON FRIDAY BUT
A DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
ADD PERHAPS A CATEGORY OR TWO OF WIND SPEED. EXPECTING NO HIGHER
THAN A 15-20 KT FCST WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 2-4FT WAVES. THIS
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND WASHES OUT ON SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN
RELAXING THE GRADIENT AND PERHAPS DROPPING A FOOT OFF THE HIGH END
OF THE SIG WAVE FCST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 221423
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1023 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
MOVED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CAROLINAS ARE NOW IN A
500-MILE WIDE ZONE OF WEST-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN THE
OFFSHORE RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE THIS EVENING...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

12Z WEATHER BALLOON DATA SHOWS THE 06Z GFS SHOWED TOO MUCH MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700 MB ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE 06Z
NAM AND RUC WERE MUCH CLOSER TO THE OBSERVED VALUES ON THE CHS AND
MHX SOUNDINGS. A BEAUTIFUL ARRAY OF SCATTERED HIGH ALTOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE PRODUCING VIRGA FLURRIES OVER A LARGE SECTION OF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF
MOISTURE AROUND 16000 FT AGL RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY. SEE OUR
NWS ILM FACEBOOK OR TWITTER PAGE FOR A PICTURE.

MODELS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. MODEL CAPE INCREASES TO 400-700 J/KG WITH MOST OF THAT
WAY UP IN THE 700-400 MB LAYER. THE LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...PRODUCED BY THE LACK OF ANY GULF OR ATLANTIC INFLOW...
WILL PROBABLY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. A DEEP DRY MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON REACHING 7000 FEET
INLAND MEANS ANY CB CLOUD BASES ARE GOING TO BE WAY UP THERE...AND
ANY EVAPORATING PRECIPITATION WITHIN THAT DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS PROBABLY AS CLOSE TO A CLASSIC WESTERN
UNITED STATES PATTERN AS YOU`LL SEE IN THE CAROLINAS.

BESIDES TWEAKING TIMING A LITTLE BASED ON THE LATEST SEVERAL HRRR
RUNS...I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS POP DISTRIBUTION FOR
THIS EVENT: 30 POPS INLAND AND 20 AT THE COAST.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THE
SEABREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND SHOULD
ONLY MAKE 15-20 MILES INLAND PROGRESS ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA GIVEN
THE BACKGROUND WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. CLOSER TO HOME WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO BEHIND
TUESDAY NIGHT COOL FRONT BUT THE RAPID DRYING SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD A PRETTY CHILLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DESPITE
SOME BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT HEADING INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH
PUSHES IN FROM THE N AND BRINGS A VERY WEAK SENSE OF CAA. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE CAPPED A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE AS COOL A NIGHT AS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS DEVELOPING
PIEDMONT TROUGH SERVES TO ENHANCE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. IN THE STILL ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES THAT COULD TOUCH OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION. SATURDAY
LOOKS WARM AS WELL WITH LIGHT SWRLY FLOW AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE N. MODELS TEND TO KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO PRECLUDE ANY REAL RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY BUT
THEY DO INDICATE THAT ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS
TEMPER THE WARMTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE CAROLINAS. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH FOR ALL TERMS...BEGINNING
WITH KFLO/KLBT BY MID-AFTERNOON...AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR A BRIEF SHOWER AT THE INLAND TERMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA.
BY 06Z...THE FRONT SHOULD BE AT OR JUST THROUGH THE COASTAL TERMS AS
MID LEVEL DRYING RESULTS IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING
EAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE. THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE
COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...PERHAPS PRECEDED BY A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SHOWERY
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FROM 9 PM UNTIL ABOUT 2 AM WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A MODERATE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP ON
TOP OF THE BACKGROUND WEST-SOUTHWEST 10-12 KNOT WIND...WITH SPEEDS
NEAR THE BEACHES INCREASING TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 15-17 KNOTS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
SMALL INCREASE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS WE`LL
SIMPLY BE TRADING A DECREASING LONG-PERIOD SWELL FOR AN INCREASED
SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP AS TIME GOES ON.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE/NWRLY FLOW WEDNESDAY FROM BOTH
EXPANSIVE STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAK HIGH BUILDING INTO
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. AS RIDGE AXIS FROM THIS HIGH POKES INTO THE
CAROLINAS FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK AND SEAS RAPIDLY DROP OFF TO
JUST 2 FT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY
BUT REMAINS PROXIMAL ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUATION OF JUST 2 FT WAVES AS
THE FLOW ACQUIRES A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SWRLY FLOW INITIALLY VERY LIGHT ON FRIDAY BUT
A DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
ADD PERHAPS A CATEGORY OR TWO OF WIND SPEED. EXPECTING NO HIGHER
THAN A 15-20 KT FCST WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 2-4FT WAVES. THIS
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND WASHES OUT ON SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN
RELAXING THE GRADIENT AND PERHAPS DROPPING A FOOT OFF THE HIGH END
OF THE SIG WAVE FCST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 221123
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
723 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE
NEAR TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITING THIS MORNING AND A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE W TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE AND ACROSS THE MORE
COASTAL LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE BRIEF AND RATHER MEAGER. EXAMINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATES A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH
SOME MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ABOVE 5-6 KFT...BELOW THAT LEVEL...IT
REMAINS CONSIDERABLY DRIER. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ONLY MANAGE TO
REACH UP TO 300 TO 400 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...WITH
LOWER VALUES NEARER TO THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR
SMALL CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE INLAND
AND THIS EVE AT THE COAST. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON DEVELOPING NW TO N WINDS AND THIS WILL END THE RISK
FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE A WARM DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH AN INCREASING SW FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...ALBEIT MAINLY THIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...EXPECT TEMPS WILL REACH 80 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THANKS
TO A SOUTHWEST BREEZE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. A DEVELOPING RESULTANT SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY COOLER... MAINLY
MID 70S. THE REMAINDER OF THE BEACHES MAY REACH THE UPPER 70S AS
THE SEABREEZE WILL BE PINNED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT...CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BALMY EVE TEMPS SHOULD DROP
TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S BY WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. CLOSER TO HOME WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO BEHIND
TUESDAY NIGHT COOL FRONT BUT THE RAPID DRYING SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD A PRETTY CHILLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DESPITE
SOME BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT HEADING INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH
PUSHES IN FROM THE N AND BRINGS A VERY WEAK SENSE OF CAA. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE CAPPED A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE AS COOL A NIGHT AS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS DEVELOPING
PIEDMONT TROUGH SERVES TO ENHANCE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. IN THE STILL ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES THAT COULD TOUCH OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION. SATURDAY
LOOKS WARM AS WELL WITH LIGHT SWRLY FLOW AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE N. MODELS TEND TO KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO PRECLUDE ANY REAL RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY BUT
THEY DO INDICATE THAT ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS
TEMPER THE WARMTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE CAROLINAS. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH FOR ALL TERMS...BEGINNING
WITH KFLO/KLBT BY MID-AFTERNOON...AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR A BRIEF SHOWER AT THE INLAND TERMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA.
BY 06Z...THE FRONT SHOULD BE AT OR JUST THROUGH THE COASTAL TERMS AS
MID LEVEL DRYING RESULTS IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
TODAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW WINDS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY BACK TO SW WITH
THE STRONGEST SW WINDS EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVE HOURS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A FAMILIAR NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
STILL IN COMPARISON TO RECENT DAYS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE THAT TIGHT AND WILL CAP WIND SPEEDS AT 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS
SHOULD BE GUSTIEST IN VICINITY OF THE PINNED RESULTANT AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. BACKSWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TODAY AND WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO ADD A FOOT OR SO TO THE OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS ONCE WIND
SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED...WILL FORECAST SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT FOR JUST
ABOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
OUTERMOST WATERS AND UP TO 6 FT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE/NWRLY FLOW WEDNESDAY FROM BOTH
EXPANSIVE STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAK HIGH BUILDING INTO
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. AS RIDGE AXIS FROM THIS HIGH POKES INTO THE
CAROLINAS FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK AND SEAS RAPIDLY DROP OFF TO
JUST 2 FT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY
BUT REMAINS PROXIMAL ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUATION OF JUST 2 FT WAVES AS
THE FLOW ACQUIRES A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SWRLY FLOW INITIALLY VERY LIGHT ON FRIDAY BUT A
DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND ADD
PERHAPS A CATEGORY OR TWO OF WIND SPEED. EXPECTING NO HIGHER THAN A
15-20 KT FCST WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 2-4FT WAVES. THIS TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE COAST AND WASHES OUT ON SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN RELAXING
THE GRADIENT AND PERHAPS DROPPING A FOOT OFF THE HIGH END OF THE SIG
WAVE FCST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR









000
FXUS62 KILM 221000
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
600 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES TROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE
NEAR TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITING THIS MORNING AND A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE W TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE AND ACROSS THE MORE
COASTAL LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE BRIEF AND RATHER MEAGER. EXAMINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATES A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH
SOME MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ABOVE 5-6 KFT...BELOW THAT LEVEL...IT
REMAINS CONSIDERABLY DRIER. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ONLY MANAGE TO
REACH UP TO 300 TO 400 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...WITH
LOWER VALUES NEARER TO THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR
SMALL CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE INLAND
AND THIS EVE AT THE COAST. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON DEVELOPING NW TO N WINDS AND THIS WILL END THE RISK
FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE A WARM DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH AN INCREASING SW FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...ALBEIT MAINLY THIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...EXPECT TEMPS WILL REACH 80 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THANKS
TO A SOUTHWEST BREEZE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. A DEVELOPING RESULTANT SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY COOLER... MAINLY
MID 70S. THE REMAINDER OF THE BEACHES MAY REACH THE UPPER 70S AS
THE SEABREEZE WILL BE PINNED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT...CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BALMY EVE TEMPS SHOULD DROP
TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S BY WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. CLOSER TO HOME WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO BEHIND
TUESDAY NIGHT COOL FRONT BUT THE RAPID DRYING SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD A PRETTY CHILLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DESPITE
SOME BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT HEADING INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH
PUSHES IN FROM THE N AND BRINGS A VERY WEAK SENSE OF CAA. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE CAPPED A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE AS COOL A NIGHT AS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS DEVELOPING
PIEDMONT TROUGH SERVES TO ENHANCE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. IN THE STILL ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES THAT COULD TOUCH OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION. SATURDAY
LOOKS WARM AS WELL WITH LIGHT SWRLY FLOW AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE N. MODELS TEND TO KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO PRECLUDE ANY REAL RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY BUT
THEY DO INDICATE THAT ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS
TEMPER THE WARMTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POSSIBLE MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
DUE TO PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT REGARDING FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE KEPT TEMPO
GROUPS AT ALL SITES FOR POSSIBLE MVFR FOG. AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG
THAT REMAINS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE GIVING WAY TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH
VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND SITES INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN
THE COASTAL SITES AFTERWARDS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS
WELL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR OVERNIGHT. VFR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
TODAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW WINDS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY BACK TO SW WITH
THE STRONGEST SW WINDS EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVE HOURS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A FAMILIAR NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
STILL IN COMPARISON TO RECENT DAYS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE THAT TIGHT AND WILL CAP WIND SPEEDS AT 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS
SHOULD BE GUSTIEST IN VICINITY OF THE PINNED RESULTANT AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. BACKSWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TODAY AND WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO ADD A FOOT OR SO TO THE OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS ONCE WIND
SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED...WILL FORECAST SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT FOR JUST
ABOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
OUTERMOST WATERS AND UP TO 6 FT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE/NWRLY FLOW WEDNESDAY FROM BOTH
EXPANSIVE STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAK HIGH BUILDING INTO
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. AS RIDGE AXIS FROM THIS HIGH POKES INTO THE
CAROLINAS FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK AND SEAS RAPIDLY DROP OFF TO
JUST 2 FT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY
BUT REMAINS PROXIMAL ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUATION OF JUST 2 FT WAVES AS
THE FLOW ACQUIRES A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SWRLY FLOW INITIALLY VERY LIGHT ON FRIDAY BUT A
DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND ADD
PERHAPS A CATEGORY OR TWO OF WIND SPEED. EXPECTING NO HIGHER THAN A
15-20 KT FCST WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 2-4FT WAVES. THIS TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE COAST AND WASHES OUT ON SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN RELAXING
THE GRADIENT AND PERHAPS DROPPING A FOOT OFF THE HIGH END OF THE SIG
WAVE FCST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/RJD






000
FXUS62 KILM 220716
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL NOT LINGER LONG AFTER
SUNRISE. THE FOG THAT DOES OCCUR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE AS
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE HELPING TO MITIGATE RADIATIONAL
COOLING EFFECTS...THUS LARGELY PREVENTING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FROM
REACHING ZERO.

A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE NEAR TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE EXITING THIS MORNING AND A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE DAY AND ACROSS THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING
THE EVE. MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BRIEF AND RATHER
MEAGER. EXAMINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES A DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTENING IS EXPECTED
ABOVE 5-6 KFT...BELOW THAT LEVEL...IT REMAINS CONSIDERABLY DRIER.
MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ONLY MANAGE TO REACH UP TO 300 TO 400 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...WITH LOWER VALUES NEARER TO THE
COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR SMALL CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE INLAND AND THIS EVE AT THE COAST. DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON DEVELOPING NW TO N WINDS AND
THIS WILL END THE RISK FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPS...EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...ALBEIT MAINLY THIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...EXPECTED TO REACH 80 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THANKS TO A
SOUTHWEST BREEZE. A DEVELOPING RESULTANT SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE
BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY
COOLER...MAINLY MID 70S. THE REMAINDER OF THE BEACHES MAY REACH THE
UPPER 70S AS THE SEABREEZE WILL BE PINNED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT...CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BALMY EVE TEMPS SHOULD DROP
TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S BY WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. CLOSER TO HOME WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO BEHIND
TUESDAY NIGHT COOL FRONT BUT THE RAPID DRYING SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD A PRETTY CHILLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DESPITE
SOME BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT HEADING INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH
PUSHES IN FROM THE N AND BRINGS A VERY WEAK SENSE OF CAA. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE CAPPED A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE AS COOL A NIGHT AS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS DEVELOPING
PIEDMONT TROUGH SERVES TO ENHANCE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. IN THE STILL ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES THAT COULD TOUCH OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION. SATURDAY
LOOKS WARM AS WELL WITH LIGHT SWRLY FLOW AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE N. MODELS TEND TO KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO PRECLUDE ANY REAL RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY BUT
THEY DO INDICATE THAT ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS
TEMPER THE WARMTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POSSIBLE MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE
TO PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT REGARDING FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE KEPT TEMPO
GROUPS AT ALL SITES FOR POSSIBLE MVFR FOG. AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG
THAT REMAINS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE GIVING WAY TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH
VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND SITES INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN
THE COASTAL SITES AFTERWARDS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS
WELL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR OVERNIGHT. VFR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
FINALLY ALLOW WINDS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY BACK TO SW WITH THE
STRONGEST SW WINDS EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVE HOURS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A FAMILIAR NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. STILL IN COMPARISON TO RECENT DAYS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT BE THAT TIGHT AND WILL CAP WIND SPEEDS AT 15 TO 20
KT. BACKSWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TODAY AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ADD A FOOT OR SO TO THE OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS ONCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE
INCREASED...WILL FORECAST SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE OUTERMOST
WATERS AND UP TO 6 FT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE/NWRLY FLOW WEDNESDAY FROM BOTH
EXPANSIVE STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAK HIGH BUILDING INTO
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. AS RIDGE AXIS FROM THIS HIGH POKES INTO THE
CAROLINAS FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK AND SEAS RAPIDLY DROP OFF TO
JUST 2 FT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY
BUT REMAINS PROXIMAL ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUATION OF JUST 2 FT WAVES AS
THE FLOW ACQUIRES A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SWRLY FLOW INITIALLY VERY LIGHT ON FRIDAY BUT A
DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND ADD
PERHAPS A CATEGORY OR TWO OF WIND SPEED. EXPECTING NO HIGHER THAN A
15-20 KT FCST WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 2-4FT WAVES. THIS TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE COAST AND WASHES OUT ON SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN RELAXING
THE GRADIENT AND PERHAPS DROPPING A FOOT OFF THE HIGH END OF THE SIG
WAVE FCST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/RJD








000
FXUS62 KILM 220554
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
155 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ONLY CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT ARE THIN CIRRUS. A FEW
STRATOCU MAY BACK ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HRS OTHERWISE OVERALL...A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. A WEAK SFC BASED
INVERSION TO PERSIST THRU DAYBREAK TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. WITH A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT UPON US AND RELATIVELY MOIST GROUNDS FROM THE RECENT
WEEKEND RAINS...HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAINLY WELL
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR EXTENDING TO THE COAST. HAVE ONLY
TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE OR 2 IN EITHER DIRECTION. HAVE
BASICALLY AVERAGED THE OVERNIGHT MINS FROM THE NAM AND GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SFC LOW/5H TROUGH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TOMORROW EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TEMPS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...LEADING TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THINK THE LIMITED STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT SCATTERED. THUS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC
POP. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE USHERED OFF THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCERN WITH WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT JETTING AND MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES.

COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO WED.
HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LATE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
FLOW WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE ADVECTION. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WED AND
WED NIGHT DRIES THE MID LEVELS OUT...DROPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO AROUND 0.30 INCH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP CHANCES. ELONGATED
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH LATE WED AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH. COMBINATION OF THESE 2 FEATURES SHOULD PRODUCE A NIGHT
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS END UP IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S WITH A FEW AREAS ALONG THE COAST HANGING IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS THURS
WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE SEA/LAND BREEZE
DOMINATE UNDER LATE APRIL SUN. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT INLAND SHOULD
MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN PLACE.

BY LATE THURS INTO FRI A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE HEADING INTO FRI AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS. THE INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID RETURN FLOW
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS UP AND PRODUCE CU AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALIZED SHWR ACTIVITY BY FRI AFTN AS GFS SHOWS PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HEAD TOWARD THE COAST
IN WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BACK AND INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST. THIS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO HEAT THINGS UP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS BACK UP AROUND 80. IT MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP SEA
BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND LIMIT AMOUNT OF PCP. OVERALL
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL COME FRI AFTN THROUGH
THE EVENING. WILL ALSO INCLUDE LOW END CHC ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SAT
NIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE BENIGN AND
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AFTER HEATING OF THE DAY CUTS OFF. NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL WE MOVE CLOSER TO SEE HOW TIMING WORKS OUT. WARMEST DAYS
SHOULD BE FRI AND SAT. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS UP AROUND 60 FRI
NIGHT...EXPECT WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS STAYING INT THE 60S MOST
PLACES. CLOUDS AND WARM AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
WARMER MOST OF SAT NIGHT ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COLD FRONT WILL GET BEFORE MOVING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT FOR SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POSSIBLE MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE
TO PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT REGARDING FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE KEPT TEMPO
GROUPS AT ALL SITES FOR POSSIBLE MVFR FOG. AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG
THAT REMAINS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE GIVING WAY TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH
VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND SITES INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN
THE COASTAL SITES AFTERWARDS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS
WELL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR OVERNIGHT. VFR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...WEAK SFC RIDGING AND LOW AMPLITUDE S/W
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BOTH PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND BOTH PUSH OFFSHORE ON TUE. THE UPPER
CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW WELL OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE CAROLINAS...WILL
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT FURTHER PROGRESSES OFFSHORE...FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL WATERS. CIRCULATION FROM THIS LATTER FEATURE
WILL CEASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE SFC
RIDGING AND A RELAXED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL BOTH AFFECT
THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KNOTS.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SUBSIDING TREND OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE...JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN WHAT WAVEWATCH3 AND SWAN
GUIDANCE INDICATE. THIS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY GROUND
SWELL CREATED BY THE VERTICALLY STACKED AND SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 8 TO 10 SECONDS AS
WIND DRIVEN WAVES BECOME A LESSER INFLUENCE TO THE OVERALL
SIGNIFICANT SEAS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH 20 KT LATE TUE JUST BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.
BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD
SEAS TO HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT 3 TO 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. COMBINATION OF
TIGHT GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE TUE NIGHT. OFFSHORE WIND
COMPONENT WILL QUICKLY DROP SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT
WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS DROPPING FROM 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED MORNING DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS LATER WED AND WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD ON THURS
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET
UP BUT IT WILL START INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH SETS UP. THE WINDS WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS BECOMING SW-W UP TO
15 KTS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SAT NIGHT
PRODUCING AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SEAS AROUND 2 FT TO START WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT IN INCREASING
RETURNING FLOW UP TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE SW. BY SATURDAY THE SEAS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER MAINLY IN THE OFF SHORE WATER WITH A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING GREATER SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS UP TO 4
TO 5 FT AS FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/RJD







000
FXUS62 KILM 220230
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1030 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ONLY CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT ARE THIN CIRRUS. A FEW
STRATOCU MAY BACK ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HRS OTHERWISE OVERALL...A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. A WEAK SFC BASED
INVERSION TO PERSIST THRU DAYBREAK TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. WITH A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT UPON US AND RELATIVELY MOIST GROUNDS FROM THE RECENT
WEEKEND RAINS...HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAINLY WELL
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR EXTENDING TO THE COAST. HAVE ONLY
TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE OR 2 IN EITHER DIRECTION. HAVE
BASICALLY AVERAGED THE OVERNIGHT MINS FROM THE NAM AND GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SFC LOW/5H TROUGH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TOMORROW EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TEMPS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...LEADING TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THINK THE LIMITED STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT SCATTERED. THUS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC
POP. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE USHERED OFF THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCERN WITH WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT JETTING AND MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES.

COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO WED.
HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LATE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
FLOW WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE ADVECTION. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WED AND
WED NIGHT DRIES THE MID LEVELS OUT...DROPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO AROUND 0.30 INCH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP CHANCES. ELONGATED
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH LATE WED AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH. COMBINATION OF THESE 2 FEATURES SHOULD PRODUCE A NIGHT
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS END UP IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S WITH A FEW AREAS ALONG THE COAST HANGING IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS THURS
WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE SEA/LAND BREEZE
DOMINATE UNDER LATE APRIL SUN. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT INLAND SHOULD
MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN PLACE.

BY LATE THURS INTO FRI A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE HEADING INTO FRI AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS. THE INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID RETURN FLOW
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS UP AND PRODUCE CU AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALIZED SHWR ACTIVITY BY FRI AFTN AS GFS SHOWS PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HEAD TOWARD THE COAST
IN WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BACK AND INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST. THIS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO HEAT THINGS UP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS BACK UP AROUND 80. IT MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP SEA
BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND LIMIT AMOUNT OF PCP. OVERALL
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL COME FRI AFTN THROUGH
THE EVENING. WILL ALSO INCLUDE LOW END CHC ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SAT
NIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE BENIGN AND
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AFTER HEATING OF THE DAY CUTS OFF. NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL WE MOVE CLOSER TO SEE HOW TIMING WORKS OUT. WARMEST DAYS
SHOULD BE FRI AND SAT. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS UP AROUND 60 FRI
NIGHT...EXPECT WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS STAYING INT THE 60S MOST
PLACES. CLOUDS AND WARM AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
WARMER MOST OF SAT NIGHT ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COLD FRONT WILL GET BEFORE MOVING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT FOR SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LINGERING FEW HIGH CLOUDS. LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT REGARDING FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. BUT GIVEN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS IN AT ALL SITES FOR POSSIBLE
MVFR FOG. AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE GIVING WAY
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND SITES TOWARDS THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...WEAK SFC RIDGING AND LOW AMPLITUDE S/W
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BOTH PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND BOTH PUSH OFFSHORE ON TUE. THE UPPER
CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW WELL OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE CAROLINAS...WILL
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT FURTHER PROGRESSES OFFSHORE...FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL WATERS. CIRCULATION FROM THIS LATTER FEATURE
WILL CEASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE SFC
RIDGING AND A RELAXED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL BOTH AFFECT
THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KNOTS.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SUBSIDING TREND OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE...JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN WHAT WAVEWATCH3 AND SWAN
GUIDANCE INDICATE. THIS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY GROUND
SWELL CREATED BY THE VERTICALLY STACKED AND SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 8 TO 10 SECONDS AS
WIND DRIVEN WAVES BECOME A LESSER INFLUENCE TO THE OVERALL
SIGNIFICANT SEAS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH 20 KT LATE TUE JUST BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES. BRIEF
PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD SEAS TO
HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT 3 TO 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. COMBINATION OF TIGHT
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE TUE NIGHT. OFFSHORE WIND
COMPONENT WILL QUICKLY DROP SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT
WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS DROPPING FROM 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED MORNING DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS LATER WED AND WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD ON THURS
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET
UP BUT IT WILL START INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH SETS UP. THE WINDS WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS BECOMING SW-W UP TO
15 KTS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SAT NIGHT
PRODUCING AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SEAS AROUND 2 FT TO START WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT IN INCREASING
RETURNING FLOW UP TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE SW. BY SATURDAY THE SEAS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER MAINLY IN THE OFF SHORE WATER WITH A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING GREATER SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS UP TO 4
TO 5 FT AS FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 220048
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
848 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE TUE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ONLY CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH ARE THIN CIRRUS. A WEAK SFC BASED
INVERSION TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET AND PERSIST THRU DAYBREAK TUE.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. WITH A
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND RELATIVELY MOIST GROUNDS FROM
THE RECENT RAINS...HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
WELL EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR EXTENDING TO THE COAST. HAVE ONLY
TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE OR 2 IN EITHER DIRECTION. HAVE
BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. OTHER THAN A BIT OF CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOON AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SFC LOW/5H TROUGH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TOMORROW EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TEMPS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...LEADING TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THINK THE LIMITED STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT SCATTERED. THUS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC
POP. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE USHERED OFF THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCERN WITH WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT JETTING AND MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES.

COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO WED.
HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LATE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
FLOW WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE ADVECTION. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WED AND
WED NIGHT DRIES THE MID LEVELS OUT...DROPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO AROUND 0.30 INCH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP CHANCES. ELONGATED
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH LATE WED AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH. COMBINATION OF THESE 2 FEATURES SHOULD PRODUCE A NIGHT
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS END UP IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S WITH A FEW AREAS ALONG THE COAST HANGING IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS THURS
WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE SEA/LAND BREEZE
DOMINATE UNDER LATE APRIL SUN. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT INLAND SHOULD
MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN PLACE.

BY LATE THURS INTO FRI A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE HEADING INTO FRI AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS. THE INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID RETURN FLOW
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS UP AND PRODUCE CU AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALIZED SHWR ACTIVITY BY FRI AFTN AS GFS SHOWS PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HEAD TOWARD THE COAST
IN WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BACK AND INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST. THIS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO HEAT THINGS UP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS BACK UP AROUND 80. IT MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP SEA
BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND LIMIT AMOUNT OF PCP. OVERALL
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL COME FRI AFTN THROUGH
THE EVENING. WILL ALSO INCLUDE LOW END CHC ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SAT
NIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE BENIGN AND
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AFTER HEATING OF THE DAY CUTS OFF. NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL WE MOVE CLOSER TO SEE HOW TIMING WORKS OUT. WARMEST DAYS
SHOULD BE FRI AND SAT. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS UP AROUND 60 FRI
NIGHT...EXPECT WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS STAYING INT THE 60S MOST
PLACES. CLOUDS AND WARM AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
WARMER MOST OF SAT NIGHT ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COLD FRONT WILL GET BEFORE MOVING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT FOR SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LINGERING FEW HIGH CLOUDS. LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT REGARDING FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. BUT GIVEN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS IN AT ALL SITES FOR POSSIBLE
MVFR FOG. AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE GIVING WAY
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND SITES TOWARDS THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA WITH BOTH WINDS AND
SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVING FALLEN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

WEAK SFC RIDGING AND LOW AMPLITUDE S/W RIDGE ALOFT WILL BOTH
PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND
OFFSHORE ON TUE. THE CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW WELL OFFSHORE AND EAST OF
THE CAROLINAS...WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT FURTHER PROGRESSES
OFFSHORE. CIRCULATION FROM THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL CEASE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE SFC RIDGING AND A RELAXED
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SUBSIDING TREND OVERNIGHT INTO TUE...JUST SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN WHAT WAVEWATCH3 AND SWAN GUIDANCE INDICATE. THIS DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL CREATED BY THE CLOSED LOW.
DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 8 TO 10 SECONDS AS WIND DRIVEN WAVES
BECOME A LESSER INFLUENCE TO THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AMZ250/252 THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. OVERNIGHT...SEAS WILL FALL TO AROUND 3-4 FT
NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTHERN WATERS WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 KTS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH 20 KT LATE TUE JUST BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES. BRIEF
PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD SEAS TO
HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT 3 TO 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. COMBINATION OF TIGHT
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE TUE NIGHT. OFFSHORE WIND
COMPONENT WILL QUICKLY DROP SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT
WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS DROPPING FROM 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED MORNING DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS LATER WED AND WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD ON THURS
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET
UP BUT IT WILL START INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH SETS UP. THE WINDS WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS BECOMING SW-W UP TO
15 KTS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SAT NIGHT
PRODUCING AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SEAS AROUND 2 FT TO START WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT IN INCREASING
RETURNING FLOW UP TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE SW. BY SATURDAY THE SEAS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER MAINLY IN THE OFF SHORE WATER WITH A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING GREATER SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS UP TO 4
TO 5 FT AS FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA/BJR
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 220030
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
830 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...TEMPORARY SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE TO PROGRESS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE TUE. THIS WILL
PROVIDE WEAK SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ONLY
CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH ARE THIN CIRRUS. A WEAK SFC BASED INVERSION
TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET AND PERSIST THRU DAYBREAK TUE. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. WITH A DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND RELATIVELY MOIST GROUNDS FROM THE
RECENT RAINS...WILL AID IN PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FORMATION...
MAINLY WELL EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR EXTENDING TO THE COAST. HAVE
ONLY TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE OR 2 IN EITHER
DIRECTION. HAVE BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS
MOS GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. OTHER THAN A BIT OF CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOON AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SFC LOW/5H TROUGH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TOMORROW EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TEMPS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...LEADING TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THINK THE LIMITED STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT SCATTERED. THUS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC
POP. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE USHERED OFF THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCERN WITH WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT JETTING AND MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES.

COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO WED.
HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LATE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
FLOW WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE ADVECTION. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WED AND
WED NIGHT DRIES THE MID LEVELS OUT...DROPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO AROUND 0.30 INCH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP CHANCES. ELONGATED
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH LATE WED AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH. COMBINATION OF THESE 2 FEATURES SHOULD PRODUCE A NIGHT
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS END UP IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S WITH A FEW AREAS ALONG THE COAST HANGING IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS THURS
WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE SEA/LAND BREEZE
DOMINATE UNDER LATE APRIL SUN. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT INLAND SHOULD
MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN PLACE.

BY LATE THURS INTO FRI A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE HEADING INTO FRI AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS. THE INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID RETURN FLOW
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS UP AND PRODUCE CU AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALIZED SHWR ACTIVITY BY FRI AFTN AS GFS SHOWS PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HEAD TOWARD THE COAST
IN WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BACK AND INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST. THIS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO HEAT THINGS UP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS BACK UP AROUND 80. IT MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP SEA
BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND LIMIT AMOUNT OF PCP. OVERALL
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL COME FRI AFTN THROUGH
THE EVENING. WILL ALSO INCLUDE LOW END CHC ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SAT
NIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE BENIGN AND
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AFTER HEATING OF THE DAY CUTS OFF. NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL WE MOVE CLOSER TO SEE HOW TIMING WORKS OUT. WARMEST DAYS
SHOULD BE FRI AND SAT. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS UP AROUND 60 FRI
NIGHT...EXPECT WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS STAYING INT THE 60S MOST
PLACES. CLOUDS AND WARM AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
WARMER MOST OF SAT NIGHT ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COLD FRONT WILL GET BEFORE MOVING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT FOR SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LINGERING FEW HIGH CLOUDS. LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT REGARDING FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. BUT GIVEN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS IN AT ALL SITES FOR POSSIBLE
MVFR FOG. AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE GIVING WAY
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND SITES TOWARDS THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AMZ250/252 THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. OVERNIGHT...SEAS WILL FALL TO AROUND 3-4 FT
NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTHERN WATERS WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 KTS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH 20 KT LATE TUE JUST BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES. BRIEF
PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD SEAS TO
HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT 3 TO 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. COMBINATION OF TIGHT
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE TUE NIGHT. OFFSHORE WIND
COMPONENT WILL QUICKLY DROP SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT
WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS DROPPING FROM 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED MORNING DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS LATER WED AND WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD ON THURS
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET
UP BUT IT WILL START INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH SETS UP. THE WINDS WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS BECOMING SW-W UP TO
15 KTS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SAT NIGHT
PRODUCING AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SEAS AROUND 2 FT TO START WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT IN INCREASING
RETURNING FLOW UP TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE SW. BY SATURDAY THE SEAS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER MAINLY IN THE OFF SHORE WATER WITH A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING GREATER SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS UP TO 4
TO 5 FT AS FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA/BJR
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KILM 212348
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
748 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. OTHER THAN A BIT OF CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOON AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SFC LOW/5H TROUGH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TOMORROW EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TEMPS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...LEADING TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THINK THE LIMITED STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT SCATTERED. THUS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC
POP. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE USHERED OFF THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCERN WITH WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT JETTING AND MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES.

COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO WED.
HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LATE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
FLOW WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE ADVECTION. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WED AND
WED NIGHT DRIES THE MID LEVELS OUT...DROPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO AROUND 0.30 INCH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP CHANCES. ELONGATED
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH LATE WED AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH. COMBINATION OF THESE 2 FEATURES SHOULD PRODUCE A NIGHT
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS END UP IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S WITH A FEW AREAS ALONG THE COAST HANGING IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS THURS
WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE SEA/LAND BREEZE
DOMINATE UNDER LATE APRIL SUN. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT INLAND SHOULD
MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN PLACE.

BY LATE THURS INTO FRI A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE HEADING INTO FRI AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS. THE INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID RETURN FLOW
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS UP AND PRODUCE CU AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALIZED SHWR ACTIVITY BY FRI AFTN AS GFS SHOWS PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HEAD TOWARD THE COAST
IN WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BACK AND INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST. THIS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO HEAT THINGS UP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS BACK UP AROUND 80. IT MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP SEA
BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND LIMIT AMOUNT OF PCP. OVERALL
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL COME FRI AFTN THROUGH
THE EVENING. WILL ALSO INCLUDE LOW END CHC ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SAT
NIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE BENIGN AND
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AFTER HEATING OF THE DAY CUTS OFF. NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL WE MOVE CLOSER TO SEE HOW TIMING WORKS OUT. WARMEST DAYS
SHOULD BE FRI AND SAT. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS UP AROUND 60 FRI
NIGHT...EXPECT WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS STAYING INT THE 60S MOST
PLACES. CLOUDS AND WARM AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
WARMER MOST OF SAT NIGHT ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COLD FRONT WILL GET BEFORE MOVING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT FOR SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LINGERING FEW HIGH CLOUDS. LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT REGARDING FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. BUT GIVEN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS IN AT ALL SITES FOR POSSIBLE
MVFR FOG. AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE GIVING WAY
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND SITES TOWARDS THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AMZ250/252 THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. OVERNIGHT...SEAS WILL FALL TO AROUND 3-4 FT
NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTHERN WATERS WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 KTS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH 20 KT LATE TUE JUST BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES. BRIEF
PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD SEAS TO
HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT 3 TO 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. COMBINATION OF TIGHT
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE TUE NIGHT. OFFSHORE WIND
COMPONENT WILL QUICKLY DROP SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT
WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS DROPPING FROM 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED MORNING DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS LATER WED AND WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD ON THURS
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET
UP BUT IT WILL START INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH SETS UP. THE WINDS WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS BECOMING SW-W UP TO
15 KTS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SAT NIGHT
PRODUCING AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SEAS AROUND 2 FT TO START WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT IN INCREASING
RETURNING FLOW UP TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE SW. BY SATURDAY THE SEAS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER MAINLY IN THE OFF SHORE WATER WITH A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING GREATER SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS UP TO 4
TO 5 FT AS FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BJR/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 211937 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
336 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. OTHER THAN A BIT OF CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOON AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SFC LOW/5H TROUGH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TOMORROW EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TEMPS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...LEADING TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THINK THE LIMITED STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT SCATTERED. THUS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC
POP. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE USHERED OFF THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCERN WITH WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT JETTING AND MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES.

COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO WED.
HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LATE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
FLOW WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE ADVECTION. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WED AND
WED NIGHT DRIES THE MID LEVELS OUT...DROPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO AROUND 0.30 INCH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP CHANCES. ELONGATED
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH LATE WED AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH. COMBINATION OF THESE 2 FEATURES SHOULD PRODUCE A NIGHT
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS END UP IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S WITH A FEW AREAS ALONG THE COAST HANGING IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS THURS
WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE SEA/LAND BREEZE
DOMINATE UNDER LATE APRIL SUN. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT INLAND SHOULD
MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN PLACE.

BY LATE THURS INTO FRI A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE HEADING INTO FRI AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS. THE INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID RETURN FLOW
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS UP AND PRODUCE CU AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALIZED SHWR ACTIVITY BY FRI AFTN AS GFS SHOWS PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HEAD TOWARD THE COAST
IN WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BACK AND INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST. THIS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO HEAT THINGS UP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS BACK UP AROUND 80. IT MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP SEA
BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND LIMIT AMOUNT OF PCP. OVERALL
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL COME FRI AFTN THROUGH
THE EVENING. WILL ALSO INCLUDE LOW END CHC ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SAT
NIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE BENIGN AND
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AFTER HEATING OF THE DAY CUTS OFF. NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL WE MOVE CLOSER TO SEE HOW TIMING WORKS OUT. WARMEST DAYS
SHOULD BE FRI AND SAT. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS UP AROUND 60 FRI
NIGHT...EXPECT WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS STAYING INT THE 60S MOST
PLACES. CLOUDS AND WARM AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
WARMER MOST OF SAT NIGHT ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COLD FRONT WILL GET BEFORE MOVING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT FOR SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXCELLENT AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY BRISK NORTH WIND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FINALLY EXITS THE REGION. AN INVERSION WILL
SET UP FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN. SOME LIGHT
FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT
ALL THAT FAVORABLE...A LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL AID IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT...MVFR WORST CASE. TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER THE LIGHT FOG MIXES OUT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TOWARD THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AMZ250/252 THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. OVERNIGHT...SEAS WILL FALL TO AROUND 3-4 FT
NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTHERN WATERS WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 KTS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH 20 KT LATE TUE JUST BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES. BRIEF
PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD SEAS TO
HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT 3 TO 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. COMBINATION OF TIGHT
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE TUE NIGHT. OFFSHORE WIND
COMPONENT WILL QUICKLY DROP SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT
WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS DROPPING FROM 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED MORNING DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS LATER WED AND WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD ON THURS
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET
UP BUT IT WILL START INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH SETS UP. THE WINDS WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS BECOMING SW-W UP TO
15 KTS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SAT NIGHT
PRODUCING AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SEAS AROUND 2 FT TO START WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT IN INCREASING
RETURNING FLOW UP TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE SW. BY SATURDAY THE SEAS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER MAINLY IN THE OFF SHORE WATER WITH A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING GREATER SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS UP TO 4
TO 5 FT AS FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BJR/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KILM 211936
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
336 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. OTHER THAN A BIT OF CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOON AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SFC LOW/5H TROUGH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TOMORROW EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TEMPS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...LEADING TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THINK THE LIMITED STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT SCATTERED. THUS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC
POP. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE USHERED OFF THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCERN WITH WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT JETTING AND MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES.

COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO WED.
HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LATE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
FLOW WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE ADVECTION. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WED AND
WED NIGHT DRIES THE MID LEVELS OUT...DROPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO AROUND 0.30 INCH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP CHANCES. ELONGATED
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH LATE WED AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH. COMBINATION OF THESE 2 FEATURES SHOULD PRODUCE A NIGHT
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS END UP IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S WITH A FEW AREAS ALONG THE COAST HANGING IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS OFF THE COAST. IT WILL BE FAIRLY GRADUAL
HOWEVER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOT ALLOWED TO DEVELOP DUE TO SOME
DEEP AND BROAD TROUGHINESS OVER THE LAKES. A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
MAY FORM LATE IN THE WEEK BUT IT SEEMS TOO FEEBLE TO LEAD TO
MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THIS MAY CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXCELLENT AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY BRISK NORTH WIND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FINALLY EXITS THE REGION. AN INVERSION WILL
SET UP FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN. SOME LIGHT
FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT
ALL THAT FAVORABLE...A LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL AID IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT...MVFR WORST CASE. TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER THE LIGHT FOG MIXES OUT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TOWARD THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AMZ250/252 THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. OVERNIGHT...SEAS WILL FALL TO AROUND 3-4 FT
NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTHERN WATERS WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 KTS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH 20 KT LATE TUE JUST BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES. BRIEF
PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD SEAS TO
HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT 3 TO 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. COMBINATION OF TIGHT
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE TUE NIGHT. OFFSHORE WIND
COMPONENT WILL QUICKLY DROP SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT
WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS DROPPING FROM 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED MORNING DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS LATER WED AND WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WIND SWITCHES FROM ONSHORE TO SWRLY ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE
INITIALLY VERY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 AS
THE RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE AND A VERY EXPANSIVE LOW
DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BJR/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43









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