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000
FXUS62 KILM 210301
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1100 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A
GRADUAL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 11 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED. RAIN APPEARS TO BE
OVER. GUSTY NE WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL ABATING
TREND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM. FOR THE SAME REASON CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS
THE DRY AIR IMPINGING UPON WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
CLEARING.

$$

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST DRIFT MON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPS DRY THINGS OUT. PRECIP WILL LIKELY END BEFORE THE START OF
THE PERIOD SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED DRY FORECAST FOR MON
AND MON NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
MON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/NORTHEAST
FLOW TRAPPED UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND BY MIDDAY THINK MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE NC COAST WILL SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE MON AND MON NIGHT
BUT BY TUE MORNING THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE AND HEIGHTS START
FALLING AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEP SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION ON TUE.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
RISE IN SURFACE BASED MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO CROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IN PART DUE TO
DEEPEST MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER PEAK INSTABILITY AND PALTRY
CONVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL JETTING.

TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW CLIMO MON THEN APPROACH CLIMO MON
NIGHT. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS ABOVE
CLIMO TUE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT DESPITE
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF COLD ADVECTION AS PERIOD
ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM LEADS TO A GOOD CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE LOWERS BEYOND THAT
TIME FRAME AS SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

TO START OFF THE LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST
WITH GRADUAL WARMING. EXPECTING VERY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES. FOR FRIDAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS A
BROAD AND RELATIVELY FLAT H/5 TROUGH DROPS OVER EASTERN CONUS. AS
UPPER SUPPORT AND THERMAL CONTRAST ARE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN A REAL CLEAR-CUT FROPA WILL
OCCUR. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND. LACKING ANY CONVINCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE SEASONAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS
LIKE THAT RECENTLY EXPERIENCED ARE LIKELY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH AND MOISTURE
ADVECTS IN THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE
SPOTTY DIURNAL-TYPE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OFFSHORE...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE COASTAL SITES WITH LOW CIGS CREATING
MVFR THIS EVENING. RADAR HAS QUIETED DOWN FROM EARLIER...SO THOUGH
COULD NOT RULE OUT A LINGERING SPRINKLE...ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT
CONCERN TO JUST BE LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH COAST...WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS INLAND CREATING VFR TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 20 KTS AND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST
AROUND 30 KTS...WITH KILM OBSERVING A 41 KT WIND GUST A FEW HOURS
AGO. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT GUSTS TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY...PREVAILING AROUND 25 KTS. MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON TUESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM SUNDAY...WIND AND SEAS REMAINING AGITATED MORE THAN
INDICATED BY ANY GUIDANCE. FEEL IT BEST TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNING
TO 2 AM...TO MONITOR TRENDS AND HOPEFULLY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS. REGARDLESS...ONCE GALES ARE LOWERED AN ADVISORY WILL BE
RAISED AS THE DECREASE IN BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL BE QUITE SLOW DUE
TO THE SLUGGISH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE OFFSHORE STORM.


SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE MON THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN.
CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE BORDERLINE SCA BUT BY
MIDDAY ANY HEADLINES SHOULD BE ENDING. NORTHERLY FLOW DROPS UNDER 10
KT BY MON NIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS TUE WITH
LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING THEN INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 20 KT JUST BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUE NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND
SURFACE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. SEAS
FLIRTING WITH 6 FT NEAR 20 NM AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SUBSIDE DURING MON...FALLING TO 2 TO 4 FT MON AFTERNOON AND 2 TO 3
FT MON NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER TUE BUMPS SEAS BACK TO
3 TO 5 FT BUT DURATION AND STRENGTH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THAT WILL GRADUALLY
DROP FROM A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 2 FT OR
LESS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW ON FRIDAY
TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...SGL











000
FXUS62 KILM 210054
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
854 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A
GRADUAL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...WILL REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING....AND BASICALLY NIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
ILM CWA. WILL FURTHER REDUCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NOTHING
OVERLAND...AND DECREASING POPS OVER THE ADJACENT LOCAL WATERS. THE
SFC PG REMAINS TIGHTENED OVERNITE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
BREEZE/WINDY AND GUSTY NNE WINDS. CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST
REMAINS ON TARGET WITH VERY LITTLE TWEAKING NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 200
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE BIG WEATHER STORY
FOR THE CAROLINAS. THIS VERTICALLY-STACKED COLD-CORE LOW HAS BROUGHT
CHILLY NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON...TYPICAL OF AN EARLY FEBRUARY DAY. MODIFICATION OF
THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE GULF STREAM IS CREATING
ENOUGH VERTICAL TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS TO FUEL QUITE AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE LOW`S CENTER. FORTUNATELY
THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL OFFSHORE AND WILL POSE NO THREAT TO LAND.

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BUILD
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...EVENTUALLY SQUEEZING THE LOW FARTHER
OFFSHORE. ATLANTIC MOISTURE SWIRLING BACK ONSHORE WILL PRODUCE LOW
CLOUDS CAUGHT UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AT THE COAST BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER THAN THE NAM SHOWING FALLING RH WITHIN THE 950-850 MB
LAYER...BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WEST
OF INTERSTATE 95 AFTER 2 AM EDT/06Z.

LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND REMAINS AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS ON. ALONG THE
COAST WITH WINDS AND CLOUDS UPPER 40S WILL PROBABLY DO IT FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH. FARTHER
INLAND WHERE WINDS MAY DIMINISH TO 10 MPH LATE AND SKIES WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR...LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE 43-46
RANGE...COOLEST WEST OF I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST DRIFT MON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPS DRY THINGS OUT. PRECIP WILL LIKELY END BEFORE THE START OF
THE PERIOD SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED DRY FORECAST FOR MON
AND MON NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
MON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/NORTHEAST
FLOW TRAPPED UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND BY MIDDAY THINK MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE NC COAST WILL SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE MON AND MON NIGHT
BUT BY TUE MORNING THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE AND HEIGHTS START
FALLING AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEP SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION ON TUE.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
RISE IN SURFACE BASED MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO CROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IN PART DUE TO
DEEPEST MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER PEAK INSTABILITY AND PALTRY
CONVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL JETTING.

TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW CLIMO MON THEN APPROACH CLIMO MON
NIGHT. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS ABOVE
CLIMO TUE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT DESPITE
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF COLD ADVECTION AS PERIOD
ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM LEADS TO A GOOD CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE LOWERS BEYOND THAT
TIME FRAME AS SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

TO START OFF THE LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST
WITH GRADUAL WARMING. EXPECTING VERY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES. FOR FRIDAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS A
BROAD AND RELATIVELY FLAT H/5 TROUGH DROPS OVER EASTERN CONUS. AS
UPPER SUPPORT AND THERMAL CONTRAST ARE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN A REAL CLEAR-CUT FROPA WILL
OCCUR. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND. LACKING ANY CONVINCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE SEASONAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS
LIKE THAT RECENTLY EXPERIENCED ARE LIKELY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH AND MOISTURE
ADVECTS IN THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE
SPOTTY DIURNAL-TYPE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OFFSHORE...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE COASTAL SITES WITH LOW CIGS CREATING
MVFR THIS EVENING. RADAR HAS QUIETED DOWN FROM EARLIER...SO THOUGH
COULD NOT RULE OUT A LINGERING SPRINKLE...ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT
CONCERN TO JUST BE LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH COAST...WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS INLAND CREATING VFR TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 20 KTS AND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST
AROUND 30 KTS...WITH KILM OBSERVING A 41 KT WIND GUST A FEW HOURS
AGO. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT GUSTS TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY...PREVAILING AROUND 25 KTS. MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON TUESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM SUNDAY...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT NNE-NE WINDS AT 25 TO 35 KT THIS EVENING. AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER/DRIFT FURTHER
OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND CAROLINAS...WIND SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN THEIR REDUCTION AS THE SFC PG BEGINS TO RELAX. COULD OBSERVE
AN ISOLATED RW- OR PATCHY R-L- BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BULK OF
THE PCPN IS OVERWITH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY
200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES
OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WHERE RECENT WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED TO
43 KNOTS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...33 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH...AND 30 KNOTS AT BALD HEAD ISLAND. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD BE OCCURRING NOW THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM...WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN POSTED
THROUGH 11 PM...AT WHICH POINT IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADED
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF THE PAST 24+ HOURS HAVE BUILT SEAS TO
AS HIGH AS 11 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...AND 6 FEET AT THE
NEARSHORE CAPE FEAR HARBOR BUOY. NEARLY STEADY-STATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SEA
HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE MON THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN.
CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE BORDERLINE SCA BUT BY
MIDDAY ANY HEADLINES SHOULD BE ENDING. NORTHERLY FLOW DROPS UNDER 10
KT BY MON NIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS TUE WITH
LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING THEN INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 20 KT JUST BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUE NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND
SURFACE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. SEAS
FLIRTING WITH 6 FT NEAR 20 NM AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SUBSIDE DURING MON...FALLING TO 2 TO 4 FT MON AFTERNOON AND 2 TO 3
FT MON NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER TUE BUMPS SEAS BACK TO
3 TO 5 FT BUT DURATION AND STRENGTH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THAT WILL GRADUALLY
DROP FROM A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 2 FT OR
LESS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW ON FRIDAY
TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 202327
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
727 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A
GRADUAL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 200
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE BIG WEATHER STORY
FOR THE CAROLINAS. THIS VERTICALLY-STACKED COLD-CORE LOW HAS BROUGHT
CHILLY NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON...TYPICAL OF AN EARLY FEBRUARY DAY. MODIFICATION OF
THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE GULF STREAM IS CREATING
ENOUGH VERTICAL TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS TO FUEL QUITE AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE LOW`S CENTER. FORTUNATELY
THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL OFFSHORE AND WILL POSE NO THREAT TO LAND.

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BUILD
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...EVENTUALLY SQUEEZING THE LOW FARTHER
OFFSHORE. ATLANTIC MOISTURE SWIRLING BACK ONSHORE WILL PRODUCE LOW
CLOUDS CAUGHT UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AT THE COAST BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER THAN THE NAM SHOWING FALLING RH WITHIN THE 950-850 MB
LAYER...BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WEST
OF INTERSTATE 95 AFTER 2 AM EDT/06Z.

LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND REMAINS AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS ON. ALONG THE
COAST WITH WINDS AND CLOUDS UPPER 40S WILL PROBABLY DO IT FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH. FARTHER
INLAND WHERE WINDS MAY DIMINISH TO 10 MPH LATE AND SKIES WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR...LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE 43-46
RANGE...COOLEST WEST OF I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST DRIFT MON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPS DRY THINGS OUT. PRECIP WILL LIKELY END BEFORE THE START OF
THE PERIOD SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED DRY FORECAST FOR MON
AND MON NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
MON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/NORTHEAST
FLOW TRAPPED UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND BY MIDDAY THINK MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE NC COAST WILL SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE MON AND MON NIGHT
BUT BY TUE MORNING THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE AND HEIGHTS START
FALLING AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEP SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION ON TUE.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
RISE IN SURFACE BASED MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO CROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IN PART DUE TO
DEEPEST MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER PEAK INSTABILITY AND PALTRY
CONVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL JETTING.

TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW CLIMO MON THEN APPROACH CLIMO MON
NIGHT. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS ABOVE
CLIMO TUE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT DESPITE
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF COLD ADVECTION AS PERIOD
ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM LEADS TO A GOOD CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE LOWERS BEYOND THAT
TIME FRAME AS SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

TO START OFF THE LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST
WITH GRADUAL WARMING. EXPECTING VERY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES. FOR FRIDAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS A
BROAD AND RELATIVELY FLAT H/5 TROUGH DROPS OVER EASTERN CONUS. AS
UPPER SUPPORT AND THERMAL CONTRAST ARE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN A REAL CLEAR-CUT FROPA WILL
OCCUR. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND. LACKING ANY CONVINCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE SEASONAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS
LIKE THAT RECENTLY EXPERIENCED ARE LIKELY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH AND MOISTURE
ADVECTS IN THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE
SPOTTY DIURNAL-TYPE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OFFSHORE...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE COASTAL SITES WITH LOW CIGS CREATING
MVFR THIS EVENING. RADAR HAS QUIETED DOWN FROM EARLIER...SO THOUGH
COULD NOT RULE OUT A LINGERING SPRINKLE...ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT
CONCERN TO JUST BE LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH COAST...WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS INLAND CREATING VFR TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 20 KTS AND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST
AROUND 30 KTS...WITH KILM OBSERVING A 41 KT WIND GUST A FEW HOURS
AGO. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT GUSTS TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY...PREVAILING AROUND 25 KTS. MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON TUESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 200
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NC
WATERS WHERE RECENT WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED TO 43 KNOTS AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...33 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...AND 30
KNOTS AT BALD HEAD ISLAND. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE
OCCURRING NOW THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN POSTED THROUGH 11 PM...AT
WHICH POINT IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF THE PAST 24+ HOURS HAVE BUILT SEAS TO
AS HIGH AS 11 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...AND 6 FEET AT THE
NEARSHORE CAPE FEAR HARBOR BUOY. NEARLY STEADY-STATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SEA
HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE MON THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN.
CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE BORDERLINE SCA BUT BY
MIDDAY ANY HEADLINES SHOULD BE ENDING. NORTHERLY FLOW DROPS UNDER 10
KT BY MON NIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS TUE WITH
LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING THEN INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 20 KT JUST BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUE NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND
SURFACE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. SEAS
FLIRTING WITH 6 FT NEAR 20 NM AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SUBSIDE DURING MON...FALLING TO 2 TO 4 FT MON AFTERNOON AND 2 TO 3
FT MON NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER TUE BUMPS SEAS BACK TO
3 TO 5 FT BUT DURATION AND STRENGTH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THAT WILL GRADUALLY
DROP FROM A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 2 FT OR
LESS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW ON FRIDAY
TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
     108.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 201916
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A
GRADUAL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 200
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE BIG WEATHER STORY
FOR THE CAROLINAS. THIS VERTICALLY-STACKED COLD-CORE LOW HAS BROUGHT
CHILLY NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON...TYPICAL OF AN EARLY FEBRUARY DAY. MODIFICATION OF
THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE GULF STREAM IS CREATING
ENOUGH VERTICAL TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS TO FUEL QUITE AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE LOW`S CENTER. FORTUNATELY
THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL OFFSHORE AND WILL POSE NO THREAT TO LAND.

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BUILD
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...EVENTUALLY SQUEEZING THE LOW FARTHER
OFFSHORE. ATLANTIC MOISTURE SWIRLING BACK ONSHORE WILL PRODUCE LOW
CLOUDS CAUGHT UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AT THE COAST BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER THAN THE NAM SHOWING FALLING RH WITHIN THE 950-850 MB
LAYER...BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WEST
OF INTERSTATE 95 AFTER 2 AM EDT/06Z.

LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND REMAINS AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS ON. ALONG THE
COAST WITH WINDS AND CLOUDS UPPER 40S WILL PROBABLY DO IT FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH. FARTHER
INLAND WHERE WINDS MAY DIMINISH TO 10 MPH LATE AND SKIES WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR...LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE 43-46
RANGE...COOLEST WEST OF I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST DRIFT MON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPS DRY THINGS OUT. PRECIP WILL LIKELY END BEFORE THE START OF
THE PERIOD SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED DRY FORECAST FOR MON
AND MON NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
MON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/NORTHEAST
FLOW TRAPPED UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND BY MIDDAY THINK MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE NC COAST WILL SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE MON AND MON NIGHT
BUT BY TUE MORNING THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE AND HEIGHTS START
FALLING AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEP SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION ON TUE.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
RISE IN SURFACE BASED MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO CROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IN PART DUE TO
DEEPEST MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER PEAK INSTABILITY AND PALTRY
CONVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL JETTING.

TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW CLIMO MON THEN APPROACH CLIMO MON
NIGHT. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS ABOVE
CLIMO TUE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT DESPITE
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF COLD ADVECTION AS PERIOD
ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM LEADS TO A GOOD CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE LOWERS BEYOND THAT
TIME FRAME AS SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

TO START OFF THE LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST
WITH GRADUAL WARMING. EXPECTING VERY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES. FOR FRIDAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS A
BROAD AND RELATIVELY FLAT H/5 TROUGH DROPS OVER EASTERN CONUS. AS
UPPER SUPPORT AND THERMAL CONTRAST ARE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN A REAL CLEAR-CUT FROPA WILL
OCCUR. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND. LACKING ANY CONVINCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE SEASONAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS
LIKE THAT RECENTLY EXPERIENCED ARE LIKELY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH AND MOISTURE
ADVECTS IN THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE
SPOTTY DIURNAL-TYPE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD
CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND BANDS OF RAIN AT LEAST THROUGH
00Z...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. FLIGHT CONDITIONS NOW ARE
MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KILM AND MVFR AT KCRE. VFR IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE.
A BAND OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WAS MOVING SWWD FROM
THE ILM VCNTY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WERE OCCURRING
INLAND.

MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CIGS AROUND 1K. THE CHANCE OF IFR IS LOW BUT CIGS 800-900 AND VSBYS
1-3 SM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC WINDS WILL BE
N-NE GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS...HIGHEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. TEMPO
MVFR CIGS/-RA COULD OCCUR AT KFLO/KLBT BUT THE LOWER CIGS APPEAR TO
BE MORE LIKELY EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AROUND 00Z CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR
VFR CIGS AT KFLO/KLBT AND MVFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 1K. CIGS WILL
BECOME VFR AT ALL TERMINALS 13-15Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 200
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NC
WATERS WHERE RECENT WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED TO 43 KNOTS AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...33 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...AND 30
KNOTS AT BALD HEAD ISLAND. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE
OCCURRING NOW THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN POSTED THROUGH 11 PM...AT
WHICH POINT IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF THE PAST 24+ HOURS HAVE BUILT SEAS TO
AS HIGH AS 11 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...AND 6 FEET AT THE
NEARSHORE CAPE FEAR HARBOR BUOY. NEARLY STEADY-STATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SEA
HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE MON THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN.
CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE BORDERLINE SCA BUT BY
MIDDAY ANY HEADLINES SHOULD BE ENDING. NORTHERLY FLOW DROPS UNDER 10
KT BY MON NIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS TUE WITH
LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING THEN INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 20 KT JUST BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUE NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND
SURFACE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. SEAS
FLIRTING WITH 6 FT NEAR 20 NM AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SUBSIDE DURING MON...FALLING TO 2 TO 4 FT MON AFTERNOON AND 2 TO 3
FT MON NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER TUE BUMPS SEAS BACK TO
3 TO 5 FT BUT DURATION AND STRENGTH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THAT WILL GRADUALLY
DROP FROM A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 2 FT OR
LESS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW ON FRIDAY
TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
     108.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...MRR/TRA








000
FXUS62 KILM 201640
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1240 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...SLUG OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MOVING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. ILM HAS PICKED
UP ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. SINCE
THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED SO LOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING...THIS IS A "TROPICAL" WARM
RAIN/COALESCENCE PRECIPITATION PROCESS. DROP SIZE IS VERY SMALL AND
IT IS NOT TAKING A LOT OF RAIN TO LOWER THE VISIBILITY
SUBSTANTIALLY. THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD STICK TO
REGIONS WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE COAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE >45
DEGREES F. FARTHER INLAND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE APPROACHING 20 DEGREES F IN SPOTS...MAKING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TOUGHER TO COME BY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM
FOLLOWS...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE (1011 MB) IS CENTERED APPROXIMATELY
125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS STILL
INDICATE A COLD CORE ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH NLDN LIGHTNING
DISPLAYS SHOWING SEVERAL HUNDRED LIGHTNING STRIKES PER HOUR
OFFSHORE. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE BROAD OUTER
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW TODAY OVER LAND...WITH GUSTS INLAND
AROUND 30 MPH...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 40 MPH AT THE COAST.

CURRENT RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW THE BULK OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM WILMINGTON NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS. MOVEMENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH PLACES ITS SOURCE REGION RATHER LOW IN THE
ATMOSPHERE ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. SATURATION IS INDICATED
ON THE NAM AND GFS TO CONTINUE ON THE 290K SURFACE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH LIFT PERHAPS INCREASING EAST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
THIS REASON I AM RELUCTANT TO TRIM BACK POPS BELOW 60-70% (LIKELY)
FOR BURGAW...WILMINGTON...SOUTHPORT...AND MYRTLE BEACH. FARTHER
INLAND THERE IS A LOT OF VERY DRY AIR (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S)
WHICH IS NOT WELL REPRESENTED IN THE MODELS. THIS COULD MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT FOR RAIN TO OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 TODAY...AND I
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN 20% (SLIGHT CHANCE) HERE.

WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST I HAVE
TRIMMED BACK HIGHS TO BARELY 60 DEGREES...WITH LOWER 60S POSSIBLE
FARTHER INLAND. THIS IS A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE
AND WILL HELP TO CANCEL OUT SOME OF THOSE UNUSUALLY WARM DAYS WE HAD
THE FIRST HALF OF APRIL. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES THROUGH
YESTERDAY WERE +2.6 DEGREES IN WILMINGTON...+0.7 DEGREES IN
FLORENCE...AND +1.1 DEGREES IN MYRTLE BEACH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...

ANOTHER DREARY AND COOL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
THE STIFF NE WINDS WILL ADD INSULT TO INJURY. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY...WITH CLEARER SKIES HOLDING NOT TOO FAR TO
OUR W AND SW...BUT UNABLE TO MAKE ANY DECENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS
ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH...CUTOFF FROM THE
MEAN FLOW...DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY SEAWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLUMN
DOES SLOWLY DRY OUT ABOVE A PRONOUNCED NEAR SURFACE INVERSION.
HOWEVER...THE SATURATED LAYER NEVER SHRINKS TO A DEPTH LESS THAN
ABOUT 2 KFT...THUS EXPECT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN HANG ON THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WE WILL LARGELY BE ON THE BACKSIDE OR SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER...PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING
MENTION OF POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. HIGHEST POPS SEEM
WARRANTED THROUGH MIDDAY...UP TO CATEGORICAL WITH POPS TRENDING
LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SOME
RIDGING BUILDING TO THE COAST LATE AT NIGHT AND ON MON. THUS THE
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
INLAND DURING THE EVE. POPS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALSO TREND TO
SLIGHT CHANCE...ALTHOUGH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE.

THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW CENTER AND
TROUGH OFFSHORE AND THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE RESULT...NE WINDS ON
THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. THE
BEACHES MAY EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE
TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT EVEN
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH MOST OF THE TIME.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WILL CAP THEM IN THE LOWER
60S GIVEN THERE WILL BE NO HELP FROM THE SUN TO BOOST THEM ANY
HIGHER. TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER AND WINDS...ALLOWING FOR A RATHER WELL
MIXED ENVIRONMENT...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID
AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...RAIN-FREE ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING KEEP THINGS VERY DRY. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE IN THE NNE FLOW. THUS EXPECT AN
EAST-WEST GRADATION IN CLOUD COVER. OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH AS THE PREVIOUSLY CUTOFF ATLANTIC
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EASTWARD. MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO
TROUGHINESS DROPPING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION THEN FOLLOWS LATE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREV PROGGED. SHOWERS
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND INSTABILITY QUITE MEAGER. MONDAY HIGHS
HELD BELOW CLIMO BY THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BUT TEMPS SNAP BACK TO
SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE PREFRONTAL SRLY FLOW ON
TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PRESSURE PATTERN QUITE POORLY DEFINED ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL HIGH IS QUITE WEAK AND MOSTLY CENTERED
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS PRECLUDES ANY COOL ADVECTION AND FAIRLY
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WE MAY SEE A BUMP OF A FEW DEGREES
ON THURSDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS VERY SLIGHT WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVELS WILL
MOISTEN GRADUALLY BASICALLY JUST CHANGING THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OF
WED AND THU TO PARTLY SUNNY BY FRIDAY OR THEREABOUTS...AGAIN A
GRADUAL PROCESS. THE UPTICK IN MOISTURE PAIRED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD
CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND BANDS OF RAIN AT LEAST THROUGH
00Z...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. FLIGHT CONDITIONS NOW ARE
MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KILM AND MVFR AT KCRE. VFR IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE.
A BAND OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WAS MOVING SWWD FROM
THE ILM VCNTY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WERE OCCURRING
INLAND.

MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CIGS AROUND 1K. THE CHANCE OF IFR IS LOW BUT CIGS 800-900 AND VSBYS
1-3 SM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC WINDS WILL BE
N-NE GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS...HIGHEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. TEMPO
MVFR CIGS/-RA COULD OCCUR AT KFLO/KLBT BUT THE LOWER CIGS APPEAR TO
BE MORE LIKELY EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AROUND 00Z CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR
VFR CIGS AT KFLO/KLBT AND MVFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 1K. CIGS WILL
BECOME VFR AT ALL TERMINALS 13-15Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY.



&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WITH MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GUSTS CONTINUE TO
REACH 30 KNOTS AT THE NC BEACHES...25 KT AT THE SC BEACHES...AND
JUST SHY OF 40 KNOTS OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...

WINDS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HAVE GUSTED AS HIGH AS 41 KNOTS
THIS MORNING...WITH COASTAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND BALD HEAD ISLAND. IN THE
SEMI-PROTECTED WATERS SOUTHWEST OF CAPE FEAR WINDS ARE RUNNING 5-7
KNOTS LESS NEARSHORE...BUT ARE PROBABLY STILL QUITE STRONG AWAY FROM
SHORE. 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR
HAS BEEN PRODUCING AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH NLDN
LIGHTNING NETWORK DISPLAYS SHOWING SEVERAL HUNDRED LIGHTNING STRIKES
PER HOUR NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. SINCE THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO ONLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY LOOK FOR ONLY A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND IN WINDS/SEAS TO BEGIN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WAS BROADLY CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND UP ALONG THE THE CAROLINA
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WAS RIDGING DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...UP TO 25
TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL REMAIN NE TODAY WITH A SLOW
BACKING TO THE N AS THE LOW CENTER AND TROUGH SLOWLY MOVE SEAWARD.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO 7 TO 12 FT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT...DOWN TO 6 TO 9 FT BY DAYBREAK MON. WAVE
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF LONG BAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LOWER DUE TO THE VERY LIMITED FETCH ON NE TO N WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SHORT TERM WILL START WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WE CONTINUE TO RAMP DOWN FROM THE GALES OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL EASE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY SLOWLY TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK HIGH TRIES TO GET ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE LATTER DOES NOT HAVE MUCH LUCK TO LOCAL WINDS WILL ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY BE A FUNCTION OF THE EXITING LOW. SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY REVERSE THE
ABATING TREND IN WAVE HEIGHT BUT NO FLAGS OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED AS WIND REMAINS QUITE LIGHT BOTH AHEAD OF AND FOLLOWING A
TUESDAY NIGHT FROPA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAYS WILL BRING DECREASING AND VEERING WINDS AND ABATING
SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE NORMALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THIS
TIME THE AIRMASS PRETTY MUCH WASHES OUT AS IT BUILDS SOUTHWARD. A
STRONGER HIGH FORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP IN NY/PA AND IT WILL EXTEND A
RIDGE AXIS DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL INITIALLY YIELD A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BUT AS THURSDAY PROGRESSES THE HIGH WILL SPLIT
SLIGHTLY WITH ONE CENTER ANCHORING OFF HATTERAS. WIND WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/TRA







000
FXUS62 KILM 201410
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1009 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE (1011 MB) IS
CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. MODEL
ANALYSIS FIELDS STILL INDICATE A COLD CORE ALOFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE CENTER OF THIS
LOW WITH NLDN LIGHTNING DISPLAYS SHOWING SEVERAL HUNDRED LIGHTNING
STRIKES PER HOUR OFFSHORE. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
BROAD OUTER CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW TODAY OVER LAND...WITH GUSTS
INLAND AROUND 30 MPH...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 40 MPH AT THE COAST.

CURRENT RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW THE BULK OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM WILMINGTON NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS. MOVEMENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH PLACES ITS SOURCE REGION RATHER LOW IN THE
ATMOSPHERE ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. SATURATION IS INDICATED
ON THE NAM AND GFS TO CONTINUE ON THE 290K SURFACE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH LIFT PERHAPS INCREASING EAST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
THIS REASON I AM RELUCTANT TO TRIM BACK POPS BELOW 60-70% (LIKELY)
FOR BURGAW...WILMINGTON...SOUTHPORT...AND MYRTLE BEACH. FARTHER
INLAND THERE IS A LOT OF VERY DRY AIR (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S)
WHICH IS NOT WELL REPRESENTED IN THE MODELS. THIS COULD MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT FOR RAIN TO OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 TODAY...AND I
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN 20% (SLIGHT CHANCE) HERE.

WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST I HAVE
TRIMMED BACK HIGHS TO BARELY 60 DEGREES...WITH LOWER 60S POSSIBLE
FARTHER INLAND. THIS IS A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE
AND WILL HELP TO CANCEL OUT SOME OF THOSE UNUSUALLY WARM DAYS WE HAD
THE FIRST HALF OF APRIL. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES THROUGH
YESTERDAY WERE +2.6 DEGREES IN WILMINGTON...+0.7 DEGREES IN
FLORENCE...AND +1.1 DEGREES IN MYRTLE BEACH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...

ANOTHER DREARY AND COOL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
THE STIFF NE WINDS WILL ADD INSULT TO INJURY. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY...WITH CLEARER SKIES HOLDING NOT TOO FAR TO
OUR W AND SW...BUT UNABLE TO MAKE ANY DECENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS
ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH...CUTOFF FROM THE
MEAN FLOW...DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY SEAWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLUMN
DOES SLOWLY DRY OUT ABOVE A PRONOUNCED NEAR SURFACE INVERSION.
HOWEVER...THE SATURATED LAYER NEVER SHRINKS TO A DEPTH LESS THAN
ABOUT 2 KFT...THUS EXPECT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN HANG ON THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WE WILL LARGELY BE ON THE BACKSIDE OR SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER...PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING
MENTION OF POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. HIGHEST POPS SEEM
WARRANTED THROUGH MIDDAY...UP TO CATEGORICAL WITH POPS TRENDING
LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SOME
RIDGING BUILDING TO THE COAST LATE AT NIGHT AND ON MON. THUS THE
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
INLAND DURING THE EVE. POPS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALSO TREND TO
SLIGHT CHANCE...ALTHOUGH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE.

THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW CENTER AND
TROUGH OFFSHORE AND THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE RESULT...NE WINDS ON
THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. THE
BEACHES MAY EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE
TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT EVEN
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH MOST OF THE TIME.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WILL CAP THEM IN THE LOWER
60S GIVEN THERE WILL BE NO HELP FROM THE SUN TO BOOST THEM ANY
HIGHER. TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER AND WINDS...ALLOWING FOR A RATHER WELL
MIXED ENVIRONMENT...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID
AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...RAIN-FREE ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING KEEP THINGS VERY DRY. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE IN THE NNE FLOW. THUS EXPECT AN
EAST-WEST GRADATION IN CLOUD COVER. OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH AS THE PREVIOUSLY CUTOFF ATLANTIC
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EASTWARD. MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO
TROUGHINESS DROPPING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION THEN FOLLOWS LATE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREV PROGGED. SHOWERS
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND INSTABILITY QUITE MEAGER. MONDAY HIGHS
HELD BELOW CLIMO BY THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BUT TEMPS SNAP BACK TO
SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE PREFRONTAL SRLY FLOW ON
TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PRESSURE PATTERN QUITE POORLY DEFINED ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL HIGH IS QUITE WEAK AND MOSTLY CENTERED
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS PRECLUDES ANY COOL ADVECTION AND FAIRLY
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WE MAY SEE A BUMP OF A FEW DEGREES
ON THURSDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS VERY SLIGHT WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVELS WILL
MOISTEN GRADUALLY BASICALLY JUST CHANGING THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OF
WED AND THU TO PARTLY SUNNY BY FRIDAY OR THEREABOUTS...AGAIN A
GRADUAL PROCESS. THE UPTICK IN MOISTURE PAIRED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AT TAF TIME BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT
KMYR...WHILE CIGS AT KFLO/KLBT/KCRE ARE VFR. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE
OCCURRING AT KILM. PATCHY WRAP AROUND RAIN FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...BUT IS BECOMING MORE EXPANSIVE IN
THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTHEAST OF KILM.

THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS TAF
VALID PERIOD...THUS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD CHANCE CHANCE
OF WRAP AROUND BANDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 00Z. WINDS
WILL BE N-NE AND DUE TO A TIGHT GRADIENT GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. AT KFLO/KLBT VFR
EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CIGS AS PROGS INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MID-LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AROUND 00Z
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR IFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 1K.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...WINDS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HAVE
GUSTED AS HIGH AS 41 KNOTS THIS MORNING...WITH COASTAL OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND BALD
HEAD ISLAND. IN THE SEMI-PROTECTED WATERS SOUTHWEST OF CAPE FEAR
WINDS ARE RUNNING 5-7 KNOTS LESS NEARSHORE...BUT ARE PROBABLY STILL
QUITE STRONG AWAY FROM SHORE. 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 125 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR HAS BEEN PRODUCING AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF
DEEP CONVECTION WITH NLDN LIGHTNING NETWORK DISPLAYS SHOWING SEVERAL
HUNDRED LIGHTNING STRIKES PER HOUR NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION. SINCE THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO ONLY DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH TODAY LOOK FOR ONLY A SLOW IMPROVING TREND IN WINDS/SEAS TO
BEGIN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM
FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WAS BROADLY CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND UP ALONG THE THE CAROLINA
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WAS RIDGING DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...UP TO 25
TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL REMAIN NE TODAY WITH A SLOW
BACKING TO THE N AS THE LOW CENTER AND TROUGH SLOWLY MOVE SEAWARD.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO 7 TO 12 FT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT...DOWN TO 6 TO 9 FT BY DAYBREAK MON. WAVE
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF LONG BAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LOWER DUE TO THE VERY LIMITED FETCH ON NE TO N WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SHORT TERM WILL START WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WE CONTINUE TO RAMP DOWN FROM THE GALES OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL EASE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY SLOWLY TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK HIGH TRIES TO GET ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE LATTER DOES NOT HAVE MUCH LUCK TO LOCAL WINDS WILL ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY BE A FUNCTION OF THE EXITING LOW. SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY REVERSE THE
ABATING TREND IN WAVE HEIGHT BUT NO FLAGS OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED AS WIND REMAINS QUITE LIGHT BOTH AHEAD OF AND FOLLOWING A
TUESDAY NIGHT FROPA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAYS WILL BRING DECREASING AND VEERING WINDS AND ABATING
SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE NORMALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THIS
TIME THE AIRMASS PRETTY MUCH WASHES OUT AS IT BUILDS SOUTHWARD. A
STRONGER HIGH FORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP IN NY/PA AND IT WILL EXTEND A
RIDGE AXIS DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL INITIALLY YIELD A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BUT AS THURSDAY PROGRESSES THE HIGH WILL SPLIT
SLIGHTLY WITH ONE CENTER ANCHORING OFF HATTERAS. WIND WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 201155
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
755 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL RAIN
TODAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMUP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...ANOTHER DREARY AND COOL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE STIFF NE WINDS WILL ADD INSULT TO INJURY.
EXPECT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY...WITH CLEARER SKIES
HOLDING NOT TOO FAR TO OUR W AND SW...BUT UNABLE TO MAKE ANY DECENT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGH...CUTOFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW...DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY SEAWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLUMN DOES SLOWLY DRY OUT ABOVE A PRONOUNCED
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. HOWEVER...THE SATURATED LAYER NEVER SHRINKS
TO A DEPTH LESS THAN ABOUT 2 KFT...THUS EXPECT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN
HANG ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WE WILL LARGELY BE ON THE
BACKSIDE OR SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER...PROXIMITY OF SURFACE
TROUGH AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
NECESSITATE KEEPING MENTION OF POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHEST POPS SEEM WARRANTED THROUGH MIDDAY...UP TO CATEGORICAL WITH
POPS TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA
WITH SOME RIDGING BUILDING TO THE COAST LATE AT NIGHT AND ON MON.
THUS THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND DURING THE EVE. POPS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALSO TREND
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...ALTHOUGH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE.

THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW CENTER AND
TROUGH OFFSHORE AND THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE RESULT...NE WINDS ON
THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. THE
BEACHES MAY EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE
TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT EVEN
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH MOST OF THE TIME.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WILL CAP THEM IN THE LOWER
60S GIVEN THERE WILL BE NO HELP FROM THE SUN TO BOOST THEM ANY
HIGHER. TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER AND WINDS...ALLOWING FOR A RATHER WELL
MIXED ENVIRONMENT...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID
AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...RAIN-FREE ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING KEEP THINGS VERY DRY. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE IN THE NNE FLOW. THUS EXPECT AN
EAST-WEST GRADATION IN CLOUD COVER. OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH AS THE PREVIOUSLY CUTOFF ATLANTIC
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EASTWARD. MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO
TROUGHINESS DROPPING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION THEN FOLLOWS LATE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREV PROGGED. SHOWERS
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND INSTABILITY QUITE MEAGER. MONDAY HIGHS
HELD BELOW CLIMO BY THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BUT TEMPS SNAP BACK TO
SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE PREFRONTAL SRLY FLOW ON
TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PRESSURE PATTERN QUITE POORLY DEFINED ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL HIGH IS QUITE WEAK AND MOSTLY CENTERED
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS PRECLUDES ANY COOL ADVECTION AND FAIRLY
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WE MAY SEE A BUMP OF A FEW DEGREES
ON THURSDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS VERY SLIGHT WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVELS WILL
MOISTEN GRADUALLY BASICALLY JUST CHANGING THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OF
WED AND THU TO PARTLY SUNNY BY FRIDAY OR THEREABOUTS...AGAIN A
GRADUAL PROCESS. THE UPTICK IN MOISTURE PAIRED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AT TAF TIME BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT
KMYR...WHILE CIGS AT KFLO/KLBT/KCRE ARE VFR. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE
OCCURRING AT KILM. PATCHY WRAP AROUND RAIN FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...BUT IS BECOMING MORE EXPANSIVE IN
THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTHEAST OF KILM.

THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS TAF
VALID PERIOD...THUS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD CHANCE CHANCE
OF WRAP AROUND BANDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 00Z. WINDS
WILL BE N-NE AND DUE TO A TIGHT GRADIENT GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. AT KFLO/KLBT VFR
EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CIGS AS PROGS INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MID-LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AROUND 00Z
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR IFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 1K.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT
WHICH WILL THEN REMAIN INTO MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WAS BROADLY CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND UP ALONG THE THE CAROLINA
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WAS RIDGING DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...UP TO 25
TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL REMAIN NE TODAY WITH A SLOW
BACKING TO THE N AS THE LOW CENTER AND TROUGH SLOWLY MOVE SEAWARD.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO 7 TO 12 FT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT...DOWN TO 6 TO 9 FT BY DAYBREAK MON. WAVE
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF LONG BAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LOWER DUE TO THE VERY LIMITED FETCH ON NE TO N WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SHORT TERM WILL START WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WE CONTINUE TO RAMP DOWN FROM THE GALES OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL EASE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY SLOWLY TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK HIGH TRIES TO GET ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE LATTER DOES NOT HAVE MUCH LUCK TO LOCAL WINDS WILL ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY BE A FUNCTION OF THE EXITING LOW. SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY REVERSE THE
ABATING TREND IN WAVE HEIGHT BUT NO FLAGS OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED AS WIND REMAINS QUITE LIGHT BOTH AHEAD OF AND FOLLOWING A
TUESDAY NIGHT FROPA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAYS WILL BRING DECREASING AND VEERING WINDS AND ABATING
SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE NORMALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THIS
TIME THE AIRMASS PRETTY MUCH WASHES OUT AS IT BUILDS SOUTHWARD. A
STRONGER HIGH FORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP IN NY/PA AND IT WILL EXTEND A
RIDGE AXIS DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL INITIALLY YIELD A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BUT AS THURSDAY PROGRESSES THE HIGH WILL SPLIT
SLIGHTLY WITH ONE CENTER ANCHORING OFF HATTERAS. WIND WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 201039
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
639 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL RAIN
TODAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMUP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...ANOTHER DREARY AND COOL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE STIFF NE WINDS WILL ADD INSULT TO INJURY.
EXPECT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY...WITH CLEARER SKIES
HOLDING NOT TOO FAR TO OUR W AND SW...BUT UNABLE TO MAKE ANY DECENT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGH...CUTOFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW...DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY SEAWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLUMN DOES SLOWLY DRY OUT ABOVE A PRONOUNCED
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. HOWEVER...THE SATURATED LAYER NEVER SHRINKS
TO A DEPTH LESS THAN ABOUT 2 KFT...THUS EXPECT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN
HANG ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WE WILL LARGELY BE ON THE
BACKSIDE OR SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER...PROXIMITY OF SURFACE
TROUGH AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
NECESSITATE KEEPING MENTION OF POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHEST POPS SEEM WARRANTED THROUGH MIDDAY...UP TO CATEGORICAL WITH
POPS TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA
WITH SOME RIDGING BUILDING TO THE COAST LATE AT NIGHT AND ON MON.
THUS THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND DURING THE EVE. POPS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALSO TREND
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...ALTHOUGH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE.

THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW CENTER AND
TROUGH OFFSHORE AND THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE RESULT...NE WINDS ON
THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. THE
BEACHES MAY EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE
TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT EVEN
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH MOST OF THE TIME.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WILL CAP THEM IN THE LOWER
60S GIVEN THERE WILL BE NO HELP FROM THE SUN TO BOOST THEM ANY
HIGHER. TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER AND WINDS...ALLOWING FOR A RATHER WELL
MIXED ENVIRONMENT...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID
AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...RAIN-FREE ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING KEEP THINGS VERY DRY. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE IN THE NNE FLOW. THUS EXPECT AN
EAST-WEST GRADATION IN CLOUD COVER. OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH AS THE PREVIOUSLY CUTOFF ATLANTIC
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EASTWARD. MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO
TROUGHINESS DROPPING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION THEN FOLLOWS LATE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREV PROGGED. SHOWERS
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND INSTABILITY QUITE MEAGER. MONDAY HIGHS
HELD BELOW CLIMO BY THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BUT TEMPS SNAP BACK TO
SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE PREFRONTAL SRLY FLOW ON
TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PRESSURE PATTERN QUITE POORLY DEFINED ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL HIGH IS QUITE WEAK AND MOSTLY CENTERED
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS PRECLUDES ANY COOL ADVECTION AND FAIRLY
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WE MAY SEE A BUMP OF A FEW DEGREES
ON THURSDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS VERY SLIGHT WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVELS WILL
MOISTEN GRADUALLY BASICALLY JUST CHANGING THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OF
WED AND THU TO PARTLY SUNNY BY FRIDAY OR THEREABOUTS...AGAIN A
GRADUAL PROCESS. THE UPTICK IN MOISTURE PAIRED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR ALONG THE COAST CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH MORNING AS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD MVFR ON SUNDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT RAINFALL PUSHING INLAND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE MVFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT AGAIN GIVEN
LOWERED CONFIDENCE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ATTM. THROUGHOUT THE DAY
EXPECT BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT
WHICH WILL THEN REMAIN INTO MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WAS BROADLY CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND UP ALONG THE THE CAROLINA
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WAS RIDGING DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THIS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...UP TO 25
TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL REMAIN NE TODAY WITH A SLOW
BACKING TO THE N AS THE LOW CENTER AND TROUGH SLOWLY MOVE SEAWARD.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO 7 TO 12 FT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT...DOWN TO 6 TO 9 FT BY DAYBREAK MON. WAVE
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF LONG BAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LOWER DUE TO THE VERY LIMITED FETCH ON NE TO N WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SHORT TERM WILL START WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WE CONTINUE TO RAMP DOWN FROM THE GALES OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL EASE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY SLOWLY TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK HIGH TRIES TO GET ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE LATTER DOES NOT HAVE MUCH LUCK TO LOCAL WINDS WILL ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY BE A FUNCTION OF THE EXITING LOW. SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY REVERSE THE
ABATING TREND IN WAVE HEIGHT BUT NO FLAGS OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED AS WIND REMAINS QUITE LIGHT BOTH AHEAD OF AND FOLLOWING A
TUESDAY NIGHT FROPA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAYS WILL BRING DECREASING AND VEERING WINDS AND ABATING
SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE NORMALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THIS
TIME THE AIRMASS PRETTY MUCH WASHES OUT AS IT BUILDS SOUTHWARD. A
STRONGER HIGH FORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP IN NY/PA AND IT WILL EXTEND A
RIDGE AXIS DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL INITIALLY YIELD A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BUT AS THURSDAY PROGRESSES THE HIGH WILL SPLIT
SLIGHTLY WITH ONE CENTER ANCHORING OFF HATTERAS. WIND WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR SCZ056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/RJD







000
FXUS62 KILM 200714
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
314 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL RAIN
TODAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMUP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ANOTHER DREARY AND COOL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE STIFF NE WINDS WILL ADD INSULT TO INJURY.
EXPECT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY...WITH CLEARER SKIES
HOLDING NOT TOO FAR TO OUR W AND SW...BUT UNABLE TO MAKE ANY DECENT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGH...CUTOFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW...DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY SEAWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLUMN DOES SLOWLY DRY OUT ABOVE A PRONOUNCED
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. HOWEVER...THE SATURATED LAYER NEVER SHRINKS
TO A DEPTH LESS THAN ABOUT 2 KFT...THUS EXPECT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN
HANG ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WE WILL LARGELY BE ON THE
BACKSIDE OR SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER...PROXIMITY OF SURFACE
TROUGH AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
NECESSITATE KEEPING MENTION OF POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT.
HIGHEST POPS SEEM WARRANTED THROUGH MIDDAY...UP TO CATEGORICAL WITH
POPS TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA
WITH SOME RIDGING BUILDING TO THE COAST LATE AT NIGHT AND ON MON.
THUS THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND DURING THE EVE. POPS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALSO TREND
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...ALTHOUGH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE.

THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW CENTER AND
TROUGH OFFSHORE AND THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE RESULT...NE WINDS ON
THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. THE
BEACHES MAY EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE
TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE... BUT EVEN
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH MOST OF THE TIME.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WILL CAP THEM IN THE LOWER
60S GIVEN THERE WILL BE NO HELP FROM THE SUN TO BOOST THEM ANY
HIGHER. TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER AND WINDS...ALLOWING FOR A RATHER WELL
MIXED ENVIRONMENT...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID
AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...RAIN-FREE ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING KEEP THINGS VERY DRY. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE IN THE NNE FLOW. THUS EXPECT AN
EAST-WEST GRADATION IN CLOUD COVER. OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH AS THE PREVIOUSLY CUTOFF ATLANTIC
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EASTWARD. MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO
TROUGHINESS DROPPING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION THEN FOLLOWS LATE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREV PROGGED. SHOWERS
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND INSTABILITY QUITE MEAGER. MONDAY HIGHS
HELD BELOW CLIMO BY THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BUT TEMPS SNAP BACK TO
SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE PREFRONTAL SRLY FLOW ON
TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...PRESSURE PATTERN QUITE POORLY DEFINED ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL HIGH IS QUITE WEAK AND MOSTLY CENTERED
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS PRECLUDES ANY COOL ADVECTION AND FAIRLY
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WE MAY SEE A BUMP OF A FEW DEGREES
ON THURSDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS VERY SLIGHT WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVELS WILL
MOISTEN GRADUALLY BASICALLY JUST CHANGING THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OF
WED AND THU TO PARTLY SUNNY BY FRIDAY OR THEREABOUTS...AGAIN A
GRADUAL PROCESS. THE UPTICK IN MOISTURE PAIRED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR ALONG THE COAST CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH MORNING AS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD MVFR ON SUNDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT RAINFALL PUSHING INLAND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE MVFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT AGAIN GIVEN
LOWERED CONFIDENCE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ATTM. THROUGHOUT THE DAY
EXPECT BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT
WHICH WILL THEN REMAIN INTO MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...AROUND
30 DEG NORTH LATITUDE. A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW
AND UP THE CAROLINA COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE... CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WAS RIDGING DOWN
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS... UP TO 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL REMAIN NE
TODAY WITH A SLOW BACKING TO THE N AS THE LOW CENTER AND TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVE SEAWARD. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON...UP
TO 7 TO 12 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT...DOWN TO 6 TO 9 FT BY
DAYBREAK MON. WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LONG BAY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER DUE TO THE VERY LIMITED FETCH ON NE TO N
WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SHORT TERM WILL START WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WE CONTINUE TO RAMP DOWN FROM THE GALES OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL EASE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY SLOWLY TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK HIGH TRIES TO GET ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE LATTER DOES NOT HAVE MUCH LUCK TO LOCAL WINDS WILL ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY BE A FUNCTION OF THE EXITING LOW. SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY REVERSE THE
ABATING TREND IN WAVE HEIGHT BUT NO FLAGS OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED AS WIND REMAINS QUITE LIGHT BOTH AHEAD OF AND FOLLOWING A
TUESDAY NIGHT FROPA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAYS WILL BRING DECREASING AND VEERING WINDS AND ABATING
SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE NORMALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THIS
TIME THE AIRMASS PRETTY MUCH WASHES OUT AS IT BUILDS SOUTHWARD. A
STRONGER HIGH FORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP IN NY/PA AND IT WILL EXTEND A
RIDGE AXIS DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL INITIALLY YIELD A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BUT AS THURSDAY PROGRESSES THE HIGH WILL SPLIT
SLIGHTLY WITH ONE CENTER ANCHORING OFF HATTERAS. WIND WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR SCZ056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/RJD









000
FXUS62 KILM 200556
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
155 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL COME ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NORTH FLORIDA COAST LATE THIS EVENING...WILL MEANDER TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. WEAK VORTS/IMPULSES
ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE AND AFFECT THE CAROLINAS.
THE MODELS INDICATE THE BEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE VORTS TO
OCCUR ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA THEN WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FURTHER
INLAND. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED TO UPDATE OR RE-ALIGN
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO DAYLIGHT SUNDAY POPS TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION THE CURRENT 88-D MOSAIC TRENDS AND APPLYING OR
MESHING IT WITH THE BEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSHORE
MOVEMENT OF THESE VORTS. WITH THE COASTAL TROF REMAINING AND
DRIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE...HAVE INDICATED MAINLY STRATIFORM PCPN
TYPE OVER LAND AREAS WITH SOME CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RW+ FROM THE
DAMPENING CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OFFSHORE COASTAL TROF. QPF HAS ALSO
BEEN RE-APPLIED WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES
TO REMAIN IN LINE AND SEE NO REASON TO TEMPER WITH.

WIND GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 40
MPH LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS REMAINS BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND THUS WILL LIKELY HANDLE THEM WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF NEED BE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS SLOWLY OFF THE NORTH-FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST. A TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE TO
UP ALONG THE NC COAST...IS STRENGTHENING THIS AFTN...WHICH WILL HELP
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ITS TRYING TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...DRIVING A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT
STRONG NE WINDS TONIGHT.

WELL RAINFALL THIS AFTN HAS NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS ANY OF THE HIGH
RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST ANY
OF IT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. BELIEVE THE RAIN HAS NOT
BEEN AS SIGNIFICANT DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT SW OF THE LOCAL
AREA...FROM WHICH THE BEST "MOIST" LIFT IS ORIGINATING. DRY
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL NEVER CREATE SHOWERS...AND THUS ONLY CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PERSIST TODAY...DEVELOPING FROM THE
SATURATED NEAR-SURFACE LAYERS. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEST MATCH
THE OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM KCHS AND KFFC THIS MORNING...AND THUS IS
USED PREFERENTIALLY. LATEST KLTX RADAR DOES SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT
THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND ADVECT
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR REGION. HAVE
DECREASED POP FROM EARLIER...BUT STILL SHOW LIKELY POP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...WITH LOW-CHC INLAND. AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE DOES WRAP BACK INTO THE AREA AROUND
THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST...DRIZZLE/MIST MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD
ONCE AGAIN...AND COULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP MODE INLAND. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE INTERACTION OF THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST AND THE
HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL DRIVE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT.
LLJ IS PROGGED TO RISE TO 40 KTS TONIGHT AT ONLY 1500 FT AGL...THUS
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGHEST AT THE COAST.

TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL EVEN ON THE COOL NE FLOW. LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP DIURNAL RANGES LIMITED TO ONLY AROUND
10 DEGREES. THUS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT JUST ABOVE 50 AT THE
COAST...AND JUST BELOW 50 TOWARDS I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN DRIFTING A VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY AWAY FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE
SHORT TERM. MOISTURE PULLS AWAY WITH THE SYSTEM...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO GRADUALLY FADE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING AND
ALONG THE COAST WHEN AND WHERE WE CAN EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO HANG ON BEFORE FADING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

GRADIENT ALONG BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY
COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHEN WE WILL SEE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...IN ADDITION TO THE
HIGHER GUSTS.

COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP SUNDAY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
60S. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AS MORE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS OF RIGHT AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY WILL FADE AND SHIFT OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN TIMING FROPA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT MOISTURE AND THE COVERAGE OF
ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND A 500
MB RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WON`T
COOL DOWN MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A MODEST UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPS THU-SAT. WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL POP FRI-SAT DUE TO
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR ALONG THE COAST CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH MORNING AS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD MVFR ON SUNDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT RAINFALL PUSHING INLAND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE MVFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT AGAIN GIVEN
LOWERED CONFIDENCE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ATTM. THROUGHOUT THE DAY
EXPECT BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NE-SW ORIENTED COASTAL TROF NOW LOCATED OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS...WILL DRIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ENE AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ILM
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT THRU SUNDAY. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
AND A TIGHTENING SFC PG OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WILL YIELD NE
WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT SUSTAINED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 35
KT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 40+ KT FROM ANY
DAMPENING CONVECTION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. KLTX
INDICATES 30 TO 40 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK AND UP THRU 3K FT.
THE LOW TOPPED AND DAMPENING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
MAY ACCESS THESE HIGHER WINDS AND BRING THEM DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC
AS GUSTS.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS...THIS BASED ON LOCAL BUOY REPORTS AND TRENDS...IE.
41013 HAVING ALREADY TOPPED 11+ FEET THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL...
BUILDING SIG. SEAS UP TO 6 TO 10 FT OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING AT
THESE LEVELS INTO SUNDAY. NO SWELL TO SPEAK OF...JUST MAINLY WIND
INDUCED WAVES GOVERNING THE SIG. SEAS WITH DOMINANT PERIODS RUNNING
7 TO 8 SECONDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE N-FL
ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE PARENT LOW IS STRENGTHENING OFF
THE NC COAST...AND HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST SUCH THAT ALL COASTAL
WATERS ARE NOW EXPERIENCING STRONG NE WINDS...EVEN OUT TO FRYING PAN
SHOALS. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE VICINITY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN. THEREFORE...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...BECOMING NE AT 20-30 KTS
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RISE
QUICKLY AS WELL...BECOMING 7-11 FT WITH A SHORT PERIOD NE WIND WAVE
PREDOMINANT...FORCING STEEP WAVE FACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WITHIN
THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH GALE WARNING FLAGS FLYING
AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL
CRATE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. SEAS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 9 FT OVER THE OUTER FRINGES OF OUR
WATERS ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SURGE TO PERHAPS LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MIDDAY.
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR SCZ056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...SGL/RJD









000
FXUS62 KILM 200302
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1102 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL COME ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NORTH FLORIDA COAST LATE THIS EVENING...WILL MEANDER TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. WEAK VORTS/IMPULSES
ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE AND AFFECT THE CAROLINAS.
THE MODELS INDICATE THE BEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE VORTS TO
OCCUR ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA THEN WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FURTHER
INLAND. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED TO UPDATE OR RE-ALIGN
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO DAYLIGHT SUNDAY POPS TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION THE CURRENT 88-D MOSAIC TRENDS AND APPLYING OR
MESHING IT WITH THE BEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSHORE
MOVEMENT OF THESE VORTS. WITH THE COASTAL TROF REMAINING AND
DRIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE...HAVE INDICATED MAINLY STRATIFORM PCPN
TYPE OVER LAND AREAS WITH SOME CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RW+ FROM THE
DAMPENING CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OFFSHORE COASTAL TROF. QPF HAS ALSO
BEEN RE-APPLIED WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES
TO REMAIN IN LINE AND SEE NO REASON TO TEMPER WITH.

WIND GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 40
MPH LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS REMAINS BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND THUS WILL LIKELY HANDLE THEM WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF NEED BE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS SLOWLY OFF THE NORTH-FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST. A TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM THIS LOW
PRESSURE TO UP ALONG THE NC COAST...IS STRENGTHENING THIS
AFTN...WHICH WILL HELP ONCE AGAIN INCREASE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. ADDITIONALLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ITS TRYING TO PUSH
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST...DRIVING A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG NE WINDS TONIGHT.

WELL RAINFALL THIS AFTN HAS NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS ANY OF THE HIGH
RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST ANY
OF IT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. BELIEVE THE RAIN HAS NOT
BEEN AS SIGNIFICANT DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT SW OF THE LOCAL
AREA...FROM WHICH THE BEST "MOIST" LIFT IS ORIGINATING. DRY
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL NEVER CREATE SHOWERS...AND THUS ONLY CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PERSIST TODAY...DEVELOPING FROM THE
SATURATED NEAR-SURFACE LAYERS. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEST MATCH
THE OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM KCHS AND KFFC THIS MORNING...AND THUS IS
USED PREFERENTIALLY. LATEST KLTX RADAR DOES SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT
THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND ADVECT
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR REGION. HAVE
DECREASED POP FROM EARLIER...BUT STILL SHOW LIKELY POP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...WITH LOW-CHC INLAND. AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE DOES WRAP BACK INTO THE AREA AROUND
THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST...DRIZZLE/MIST MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD
ONCE AGAIN...AND COULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP MODE INLAND. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE INTERACTION OF THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST AND THE
HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL DRIVE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT.
LLJ IS PROGGED TO RISE TO 40 KTS TONIGHT AT ONLY 1500 FT AGL...THUS
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGHEST AT THE COAST.

TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL EVEN ON THE COOL NE FLOW. LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP DIURNAL RANGES LIMITED TO ONLY AROUND
10 DEGREES. THUS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT JUST ABOVE 50 AT THE
COAST...AND JUST BELOW 50 TOWARDS I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN DRIFTING A
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY AWAY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE PULLS AWAY WITH THE
SYSTEM...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO GRADUALLY FADE FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SUNDAY MORNING AND ALONG THE COAST WHEN AND WHERE WE CAN EXPECT
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO HANG ON BEFORE FADING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST.

GRADIENT ALONG BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY
COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHEN WE WILL SEE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...IN ADDITION TO THE
HIGHER GUSTS.

COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP SUNDAY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
60S. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AS MORE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS OF RIGHT AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY WILL FADE AND SHIFT OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN TIMING FROPA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT MOISTURE AND THE COVERAGE OF
ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND A 500
MB RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON`T COOL DOWN MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A MODEST
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS THU-SAT. WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL POP FRI-SAT
DUE TO MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WELL
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR ON SUNDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES RAINFALL PUSHING INLAND MAINLY
AFFECTING KILM...THOUGH KCRE/KMYR HAVE ALSO REPORTED -DZ/-RA...ALONG
WITH VCSH INLAND. LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE CREATING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VCSH/-RA TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...BUT GIVEN LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING HAVE NOT INTRODUCED IN GOING FORECAST. SUNDAY...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD...BUT AGAIN GIVEN LOWERED CONFIDENCE HAVE NOT
INTRODUCED ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NE-SW ORIENTED COASTAL TROF NOW LOCATED OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS...WILL DRIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ENE AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ILM
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT THRU SUNDAY. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
AND A TIGHTENING SFC PG OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WILL YIELD NE
WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT SUSTAINED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 35
KT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 40+ KT FROM ANY
DAMPENING CONVECTION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. KLTX
INDICATES 30 TO 40 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK AND UP THRU 3K FT.
THE LOW TOPPED AND DAMPENING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
MAY ACCESS THESE HIGHER WINDS AND BRING THEM DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC
AS GUSTS.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS...THIS BASED ON LOCAL BUOY REPORTS AND TRENDS...IE.
41013 HAVING ALREADY TOPPED 11+ FEET THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL
...BUILDING SIG. SEAS UP TO 6 TO 10 FT OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING
AT THESE LEVELS INTO SUNDAY. NO SWELL TO SPEAK OF...JUST MAINLY
WIND INDUCED WAVES GOVERNING THE SIG. SEAS WITH DOMINANT PERIODS
RUNNING 7 TO 8 SECONDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
N-FL ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE PARENT LOW IS
STRENGTHENING OFF THE NC COAST...AND HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST
SUCH THAT ALL COASTAL WATERS ARE NOW EXPERIENCING STRONG NE
WINDS...EVEN OUT TO FRYING PAN SHOALS. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
CLOSER TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO RIDGE
INTO THE VICINITY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN.
THEREFORE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT...BECOMING NE AT 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RISE QUICKLY AS WELL...BECOMING
7-11 FT WITH A SHORT PERIOD NE WIND WAVE PREDOMINANT...FORCING
STEEP WAVE FACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WITHIN THE WAVE SHADOWED
REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 2-4
FT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH GALE WARNING FLAGS
FLYING AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN OFFSHORE
SYSTEM WILL CRATE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. SEAS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 9 FT OVER THE OUTER
FRINGES OF OUR WATERS ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SURGE TO PERHAPS LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MIDDAY.
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR SCZ056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 200044 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
844 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL COME ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING...WILL MEANDER TOWARD THE EAST-
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE SE U.S. COAST. WEAK VORTS/IMPULSES ROTATING COUNTER-
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WILL
OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE AND AFFECT THE CAROLINAS. THE MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE VORTS TO OCCUR
ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA THEN WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FURTHER INLAND.
AS A RESULT...HAVE RE-ALIGNED OVERNIGHT INTO DAYLIGHT SUNDAY POPS
TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE CURRENT 88-D MOSAIC TRENDS AND
APPLYING OR MESHING IT TO WHERE THE BEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE VORTS. WITH THE COASTAL TROF REMAINING AND
DRIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE...HAVE INDICATED MAINLY STRATIFORM PCPN
TYPE OVER LAND AREAS WITH SOME CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RW+ FROM THE
DAMPENING CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG OR
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COASTAL TROF. QPF HAS ALSO BEEN RE-APPLIED
WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST LOOKS AOK AND SEE NO
REASON TO TEMPER WITH.

WIND GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 40
MPH LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS REMAINS BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND THUS WILL LIKELY HANDLE THEM WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS SLOWLY OFF THE NORTH-FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST. A TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM THIS LOW
PRESSURE TO UP ALONG THE NC COAST...IS STRENGTHENING THIS
AFTN...WHICH WILL HELP ONCE AGAIN INCREASE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. ADDITIONALLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ITS TRYING TO PUSH
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST...DRIVING A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG NE WINDS TONIGHT.

WELL RAINFALL THIS AFTN HAS NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS ANY OF THE HIGH
RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST ANY
OF IT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. BELIEVE THE RAIN HAS NOT
BEEN AS SIGNIFICANT DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT SW OF THE LOCAL
AREA...FROM WHICH THE BEST "MOIST" LIFT IS ORIGINATING. DRY
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL NEVER CREATE SHOWERS...AND THUS ONLY CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PERSIST TODAY...DEVELOPING FROM THE
SATURATED NEAR-SURFACE LAYERS. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEST MATCH
THE OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM KCHS AND KFFC THIS MORNING...AND THUS IS
USED PREFERENTIALLY. LATEST KLTX RADAR DOES SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT
THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND ADVECT
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR REGION. HAVE
DECREASED POP FROM EARLIER...BUT STILL SHOW LIKELY POP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...WITH LOW-CHC INLAND. AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE DOES WRAP BACK INTO THE AREA AROUND
THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST...DRIZZLE/MIST MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD
ONCE AGAIN...AND COULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP MODE INLAND. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE INTERACTION OF THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST AND THE
HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL DRIVE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT.
LLJ IS PROGGED TO RISE TO 40 KTS TONIGHT AT ONLY 1500 FT AGL...THUS
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGHEST AT THE COAST.

TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL EVEN ON THE COOL NE FLOW. LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP DIURNAL RANGES LIMITED TO ONLY AROUND
10 DEGREES. THUS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT JUST ABOVE 50 AT THE
COAST...AND JUST BELOW 50 TOWARDS I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN DRIFTING A
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY AWAY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE PULLS AWAY WITH THE
SYSTEM...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO GRADUALLY FADE FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SUNDAY MORNING AND ALONG THE COAST WHEN AND WHERE WE CAN EXPECT
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO HANG ON BEFORE FADING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST.

GRADIENT ALONG BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY
COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHEN WE WILL SEE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...IN ADDITION TO THE
HIGHER GUSTS.

COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP SUNDAY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
60S. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AS MORE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS OF RIGHT AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY WILL FADE AND SHIFT OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN TIMING FROPA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT MOISTURE AND THE COVERAGE OF
ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND A 500
MB RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON`T COOL DOWN MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A MODEST
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS THU-SAT. WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL POP FRI-SAT
DUE TO MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WELL
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR ON SUNDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES RAINFALL PUSHING INLAND MAINLY
AFFECTING KILM...THOUGH KCRE/KMYR HAVE ALSO REPORTED -DZ/-RA...ALONG
WITH VCSH INLAND. LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE CREATING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VCSH/-RA TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...BUT GIVEN LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING HAVE NOT INTRODUCED IN GOING FORECAST. SUNDAY...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD...BUT AGAIN GIVEN LOWERED CONFIDENCE HAVE NOT
INTRODUCED ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NE-SW ORIENTED COASTAL TROF NOW LOCATED OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ENE AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE...WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ILM
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
A TIGHTENING SFC PG OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WILL YIELD NE WINDS AT
20 TO 30 KT SUSTAINED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 35 KT...AND
POSSIBLY GUSTS AOA 40 KT FROM ANY DAMPENING CONVECTION THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. KLTX INDICATES 30 TO 40 KT WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK AND UP TO 3K FT. THE LOW TOPPED AND DAMPENING CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS MAY ACCESS THESE HIGHER WINDS AND BRING
THEM DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS GUSTS.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS...BASED ON LOCAL BUOY REPORTS AND TRENDS...IE. 41013
HAVING ALREADY TOPPED 11+ FEET EARLY THIS EVENING. IN
GENERAL...BUILDING SIG. SEAS UP TO 6 TO 10 FT OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NO SWELL TO SPEAK OF...JUST MAINLY WIND
INDUCED WAVES GOVERNING THE SIG. SEAS. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN
7 TO 8 SECONDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
N-FL ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE PARENT LOW IS
STRENGTHENING OFF THE NC COAST...AND HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST
SUCH THAT ALL COASTAL WATERS ARE NOW EXPERIENCING STRONG NE
WINDS...EVEN OUT TO FRYING PAN SHOALS. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
CLOSER TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO RIDGE
INTO THE VICINITY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN.
THEREFORE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT...BECOMING NE AT 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RISE QUICKLY AS WELL...BECOMING
7-11 FT WITH A SHORT PERIOD NE WIND WAVE PREDOMINANT...FORCING
STEEP WAVE FACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WITHIN THE WAVE SHADOWED
REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 2-4
FT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH GALE WARNING FLAGS
FLYING AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN OFFSHORE
SYSTEM WILL CRATE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. SEAS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 9 FT OVER THE OUTER
FRINGES OF OUR WATERS ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SURGE TO PERHAPS LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MIDDAY.
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR SCZ056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 200024
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
824 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL COME ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING...WILL MEANDER TOWARD THE EAST-
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE SE U.S. COAST. WEAK VORTS/IMPULSES ROTATING COUNTER-
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WILL
OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE AND AFFECT THE CAROLINAS. THE MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE VORTS TO OCCUR
ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA THEN WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FURTHER INLAND.
AS A RESULT...HAVE RE-ALIGNED OVERNIGHT INTO DAYLIGHT SUNDAY POPS
TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE CURRENT 88-D MOSAIC TRENDS AND
APPLYING OR MESHING IT TO WHERE THE BEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE VORTS. WITH THE COASTAL TROF REMING AND
DRIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE...HAVE INDICATED MAINLY STRATIFORM PCPN
TYPE OVER LAND AREAS WITH SOME CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RW+ FROM THE
DAMPENING CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG OR
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COASTAL TROF. QPF HAS ALSO BEEN RE-APPLYED
WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST LOOKS AOK AND SEE NO
REASON TO TEMPER WITH.

WIND GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 40
MPH LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS REMAINS BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND THUS WILL LIKELY HANDLE THEM WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS SLOWLY OFF THE NORTH-FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST. A TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM THIS LOW
PRESSURE TO UP ALONG THE NC COAST...IS STRENGTHENING THIS
AFTN...WHICH WILL HELP ONCE AGAIN INCREASE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. ADDITIONALLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ITS TRYING TO PUSH
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST...DRIVING A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG NE WINDS TONIGHT.

WELL RAINFALL THIS AFTN HAS NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS ANY OF THE HIGH
RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST ANY
OF IT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. BELIEVE THE RAIN HAS NOT
BEEN AS SIGNIFICANT DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT SW OF THE LOCAL
AREA...FROM WHICH THE BEST "MOIST" LIFT IS ORIGINATING. DRY
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL NEVER CREATE SHOWERS...AND THUS ONLY CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PERSIST TODAY...DEVELOPING FROM THE
SATURATED NEAR-SURFACE LAYERS. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEST MATCH
THE OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM KCHS AND KFFC THIS MORNING...AND THUS IS
USED PREFERENTIALLY. LATEST KLTX RADAR DOES SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT
THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND ADVECT
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR REGION. HAVE
DECREASED POP FROM EARLIER...BUT STILL SHOW LIKELY POP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...WITH LOW-CHC INLAND. AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE DOES WRAP BACK INTO THE AREA AROUND
THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST...DRIZZLE/MIST MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD
ONCE AGAIN...AND COULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP MODE INLAND. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE INTERACTION OF THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST AND THE
HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL DRIVE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT.
LLJ IS PROGGED TO RISE TO 40 KTS TONIGHT AT ONLY 1500 FT AGL...THUS
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGHEST AT THE COAST.

TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL EVEN ON THE COOL NE FLOW. LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP DIURNAL RANGES LIMITED TO ONLY AROUND
10 DEGREES. THUS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT JUST ABOVE 50 AT THE
COAST...AND JUST BELOW 50 TOWARDS I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN DRIFTING A VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY AWAY FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING
THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE PULLS AWAY WITH THE SYSTEM...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO GRADUALLY FADE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY
MORNING AND ALONG THE COAST WHEN AND WHERE WE CAN EXPECT LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO HANG ON BEFORE FADING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST.

GRADIENT ALONG BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY
COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHEN WE WILL SEE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...IN ADDITION TO THE
HIGHER GUSTS.

COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP SUNDAY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
60S. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AS MORE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS OF RIGHT AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY WILL FADE AND SHIFT OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN TIMING FROPA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT MOISTURE AND THE COVERAGE OF
ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND A 500
MB RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON`T COOL DOWN MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A MODEST
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS THU-SAT. WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL POP FRI-SAT
DUE TO MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WELL
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR ON SUNDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES RAINFALL PUSHING INLAND MAINLY
AFFECTING KILM...THOUGH KCRE/KMYR HAVE ALSO REPORTED -DZ/-RA...ALONG
WITH VCSH INLAND. LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE CREATING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VCSH/-RA TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...BUT GIVEN LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING HAVE NOT INTRODUCED IN GOING FORECAST. SUNDAY...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD...BUT AGAIN GIVEN LOWERED CONFIDENCE HAVE NOT
INTRODUCED ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
N-FL ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE PARENT LOW IS
STRENGTHENING OFF THE NC COAST...AND HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST
SUCH THAT ALL COASTAL WATERS ARE NOW EXPERIENCING STRONG NE
WINDS...EVEN OUT TO FRYING PAN SHOALS. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
CLOSER TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO RIDGE
INTO THE VICINITY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN.
THEREFORE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT...BECOMING NE AT 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RISE QUICKLY AS WELL...BECOMING
7-11 FT WITH A SHORT PERIOD NE WIND WAVE PREDOMINANT...FORCING
STEEP WAVE FACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WITHIN THE WAVE SHADOWED
REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 2-4
FT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH GALE WARNING FLAGS
FLYING AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN OFFSHORE
SYSTEM WILL CRATE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. SEAS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 9 FT OVER THE OUTER
FRINGES OF OUR WATERS ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SURGE TO PERHAPS LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MIDDAY.
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR SCZ056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 192342
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL COME ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS SLOWLY OFF THE NORTH-FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST. A TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE TO
UP ALONG THE NC COAST...IS STRENGTHENING THIS AFTN...WHICH WILL HELP
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ITS TRYING TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...DRIVING A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT
STRONG NE WINDS TONIGHT.

WELL RAINFALL THIS AFTN HAS NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS ANY OF THE HIGH
RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST ANY
OF IT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. BELIEVE THE RAIN HAS NOT
BEEN AS SIGNIFICANT DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT SW OF THE LOCAL
AREA...FROM WHICH THE BEST "MOIST" LIFT IS ORIGINATING. DRY
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL NEVER CREATE SHOWERS...AND THUS ONLY CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PERSIST TODAY...DEVELOPING FROM THE
SATURATED NEAR-SURFACE LAYERS. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEST MATCH
THE OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM KCHS AND KFFC THIS MORNING...AND THUS IS
USED PREFERENTIALLY. LATEST KLTX RADAR DOES SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT
THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND ADVECT
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR REGION. HAVE
DECREASED POP FROM EARLIER...BUT STILL SHOW LIKELY POP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...WITH LOW-CHC INLAND. AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE DOES WRAP BACK INTO THE AREA AROUND
THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST...DRIZZLE/MIST MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD
ONCE AGAIN...AND COULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP MODE INLAND. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE INTERACTION OF THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST AND THE
HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL DRIVE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT.
LLJ IS PROGGED TO RISE TO 40 KTS TONIGHT AT ONLY 1500 FT AGL...THUS
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGHEST AT THE COAST.

TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL EVEN ON THE COOL NE FLOW. LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP DIURNAL RANGES LIMITED TO ONLY AROUND
10 DEGREES. THUS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT JUST ABOVE 50 AT THE
COAST...AND JUST BELOW 50 TOWARDS I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN DRIFTING A VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY AWAY FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING
THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE PULLS AWAY WITH THE SYSTEM...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO GRADUALLY FADE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY
MORNING AND ALONG THE COAST WHEN AND WHERE WE CAN EXPECT LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO HANG ON BEFORE FADING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST.

GRADIENT ALONG BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY
COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHEN WE WILL SEE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...IN ADDITION TO THE
HIGHER GUSTS.

COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP SUNDAY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
60S. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AS MORE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS OF RIGHT AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY WILL FADE AND SHIFT OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN TIMING FROPA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT MOISTURE AND THE COVERAGE OF
ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND A 500
MB RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON`T COOL DOWN MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A MODEST
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS THU-SAT. WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL POP FRI-SAT
DUE TO MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WELL
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR ON SUNDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES RAINFALL PUSHING INLAND MAINLY
AFFECTING KILM...THOUGH KCRE/KMYR HAVE ALSO REPORTED -DZ/-RA...ALONG
WITH VCSH INLAND. LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE CREATING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VCSH/-RA TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...BUT GIVEN LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING HAVE NOT INTRODUCED IN GOING FORECAST. SUNDAY...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD...BUT AGAIN GIVEN LOWERED CONFIDENCE HAVE NOT
INTRODUCED ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
N-FL ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE PARENT LOW IS
STRENGTHENING OFF THE NC COAST...AND HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST
SUCH THAT ALL COASTAL WATERS ARE NOW EXPERIENCING STRONG NE
WINDS...EVEN OUT TO FRYING PAN SHOALS. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
CLOSER TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO RIDGE
INTO THE VICINITY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN.
THEREFORE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT...BECOMING NE AT 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RISE QUICKLY AS WELL...BECOMING
7-11 FT WITH A SHORT PERIOD NE WIND WAVE PREDOMINANT...FORCING
STEEP WAVE FACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WITHIN THE WAVE SHADOWED
REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 2-4
FT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH GALE WARNING FLAGS
FLYING AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN OFFSHORE
SYSTEM WILL CRATE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. SEAS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 9 FT OVER THE OUTER
FRINGES OF OUR WATERS ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SURGE TO PERHAPS LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MIDDAY.
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR SCZ056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 191901
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
301 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL COME ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS SLOWLY OFF THE NORTH-FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST. A TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE TO
UP ALONG THE NC COAST...IS STRENGTHENING THIS AFTN...WHICH WILL HELP
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ITS TRYING TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...DRIVING A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT
STRONG NE WINDS TONIGHT.

WELL RAINFALL THIS AFTN HAS NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS ANY OF THE HIGH
RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST ANY
OF IT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. BELIEVE THE RAIN HAS NOT
BEEN AS SIGNIFICANT DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT SW OF THE LOCAL
AREA...FROM WHICH THE BEST "MOIST" LIFT IS ORIGINATING. DRY
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL NEVER CREATE SHOWERS...AND THUS ONLY CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PERSIST TODAY...DEVELOPING FROM THE
SATURATED NEAR-SURFACE LAYERS. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEST MATCH
THE OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM KCHS AND KFFC THIS MORNING...AND THUS IS
USED PREFERENTIALLY. LATEST KLTX RADAR DOES SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT
THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND ADVECT
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR REGION. HAVE
DECREASED POP FROM EARLIER...BUT STILL SHOW LIKELY POP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...WITH LOW-CHC INLAND. AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE DOES WRAP BACK INTO THE AREA AROUND
THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST...DRIZZLE/MIST MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD
ONCE AGAIN...AND COULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP MODE INLAND. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE INTERACTION OF THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST AND THE
HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL DRIVE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT.
LLJ IS PROGGED TO RISE TO 40 KTS TONIGHT AT ONLY 1500 FT AGL...THUS
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGHEST AT THE COAST.

TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL EVEN ON THE COOL NE FLOW. LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP DIURNAL RANGES LIMITED TO ONLY AROUND
10 DEGREES. THUS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT JUST ABOVE 50 AT THE
COAST...AND JUST BELOW 50 TOWARDS I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN DRIFTING
A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY AWAY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE PULLS AWAY WITH THE
SYSTEM...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO GRADUALLY FADE FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SUNDAY MORNING AND ALONG THE COAST WHEN AND WHERE WE CAN EXPECT
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO HANG ON BEFORE FADING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST.

GRADIENT ALONG BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY
COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHEN WE WILL SEE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...IN ADDITION TO THE
HIGHER GUSTS.

COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP SUNDAY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
60S. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AS MORE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS OF RIGHT AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY WILL FADE AND SHIFT OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN TIMING FROPA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT MOISTURE AND THE COVERAGE OF
ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND A 500
MB RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON`T COOL DOWN MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A MODEST
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS THU-SAT. WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL POP FRI-SAT
DUE TO MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS
AT KFLO/KLBT HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH MVFR AT TIMES. VSBYS ARE
VFR...BUT VSBYS AT KILM/KLBT HAVE BEEN MVFR/IFR IN -DZ -RA AND BR.

ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY DECREASING FROM S-N...SHOWERS
ARE REDEVELOPING TO THE SE OF KILM. THE LATEST HRRR SLINGS THIS NW
INTO KILM THEN KLBT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT KILM/KLBT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH MVFR
VSBYS AT KILM DUE TO SHOWERS. EXPECT IFR CIGS INLAND AS WELL...WITH
TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT KLBT DUE TO SHOWERS.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
ENE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. KLBT/KFLO SHOULD HAVE
THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. AS THE ATTENDANT UPPER LOW PASSES EAST THE BEST RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD END AND CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR 08-10Z. PERIODS OF VFR
COULD OCCUR BY 12Z BUT KEPT CIGS MVFR ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO MVFR CIGS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR ON
MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
N-FL ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE PARENT LOW IS
STRENGTHENING OFF THE NC COAST...AND HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST
SUCH THAT ALL COASTAL WATERS ARE NOW EXPERIENCING STRONG NE
WINDS...EVEN OUT TO FRYING PAN SHOALS. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
CLOSER TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO RIDGE
INTO THE VICINITY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN.
THEREFORE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT...BECOMING NE AT 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RISE QUICKLY AS WELL...BECOMING
7-11 FT WITH A SHORT PERIOD NE WIND WAVE PREDOMINANT...FORCING
STEEP WAVE FACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WITHIN THE WAVE SHADOWED
REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 2-4
FT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH GALE WARNING FLAGS
FLYING AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN OFFSHORE
SYSTEM WILL CRATE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. SEAS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 9 FT OVER THE OUTER
FRINGES OF OUR WATERS ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SURGE TO PERHAPS LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MIDDAY.
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW/CRM






000
FXUS62 KILM 191730
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL JUST DRIFT NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SC COAST
BY TONIGHT. AN ELONGATED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT IS EXTENDING NE FROM
THIS LOW PRESSURE TO JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...AND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL WAVER JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH DOWN TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AS WELL. ALL OF THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL CREATE A
CONTINUED CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED DAY...WITH INCREASING NE WINDS.

THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH FELL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING HAS MOSTLY EXITED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ONLY REMNANT
SHOWERS REMAINING LOCALLY. ALL AVAILABLE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE MODELS
THIS WELL...ALBEIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION THAT WHAT IS
ACTUALLY BEING OBSERVED. HOWEVER...THESE SAME MODELS SUGGEST THAT
HEAVIER RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP ONTO THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE
SATURATED...MUCH MORESO THAN 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS TO THE
SOUTH...WHICH SHOW PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB. EXPECT THIS DRY
AIR IS DUE TO THE RIDGE MOVING SOUTH AND SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP...BUT CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL SATURATION WILL
DRIVE OVERCAST SKY COVER AND PERIODIC SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTN.  BY THIS EVENING...COLUMN WILL ONCE AGAIN SATURATE AND MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE AS SHOWN VIA THE 09Z SREF
PLUMES...HIGHEST ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST...WHERE RAINFALL OF 2-4"
HAS ALREADY FALLEN SINCE LAST NIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN RAINFALL THIS EVE...NE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL REMAIN SHALLOW...NE WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME COMMON TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. WHILE THIS WILL FALL BELOW WI.Y
THRESHOLDS...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER AN SPS FOR ISOLATED WIND
IMPACTS...INCLUDING TREE DAMAGE ON THE SATURATED GROUND...WITH THE
AFTN PACKAGE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BARELY MOVE THANKS TO THE COOL NE WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER...AND EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...BUT SOME
LOW 60S ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND NEAR THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER. DIURNAL RANGES WILL ALSO BE LIMITED...AND THUS MINS
TONIGHT WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE LOW 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MOISTURE FROM THE NEAR TERM STORM SYSTEM TO
LINGER INTO SUNDAY.  THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THEN IS HOW FAR INLAND
RAIN MANAGES TO SPREAD AND WHAT THE AMOUNTS END UP LOOKING LIKE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST THAT
MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY IF SSTS DO NOT INHIBIT
VERTICAL MIXING IN THE STRONG ONSHORE JETTING. BL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR LESS OF AN INLAND PUSH OF MOISTURE. SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAY PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT THATS ABOUT IT.
MONDAY BRINGS MID LEVEL RIDGING/DRYING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BE SLOW TO ERODE FROM THE EASTERN ZONES HOWEVER ESPECIALLY IF THE
INVERSION SHOWN IN GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOPS TO HELP TRAP IT.
THIS FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR IN WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ON ACCOUNT OF LIMITED PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
FLUX. HEIGHT RISES ARE QUICK TO FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY OFFSETTING ANY
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION...WHICH THERE DOESNT SEEM TO BE MUCH OF
ANYWAY. LATE WEEK TEMPS TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND SURFACE HIGH ONLY VERY SLOWLY MIGRATES
EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS
AT KFLO/KLBT HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH MVFR AT TIMES. VSBYS ARE
VFR...BUT VSBYS AT KILM/KLBT HAVE BEEN MVFR/IFR IN -DZ -RA AND BR.

ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY DECREASING FROM S-N...SHOWERS
ARE REDEVELOPING TO THE SE OF KILM. THE LATEST HRRR SLINGS THIS NW
INTO KILM THEN KLBT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT KILM/KLBT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH MVFR
VSBYS AT KILM DUE TO SHOWERS. EXPECT IFR CIGS INLAND AS WELL....WITH
TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT KLBT DUE TO SHOWERS.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
ENE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. KLBT/KFLO SHOULD HAVE
THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. AS THE ATTENDANT UPPER LOW PASSES EAST THE BEST RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD END AND CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR 08-10Z. PERIODS OF VFR
COULD OCCUR BY 12Z BUT KEPT CIGS MVFR ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO MVFR CIGS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR ON
MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA IS DRAPING
A COASTAL FRONT NE INTO THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. THIS LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
STRENGTHEN DOWN THE COAST. THESE TWO FEATURES IN TANDEM WILL DRIVE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CURRENT OBS SHOW THAT THE WEAKEST
WINDS ARE...SURPRISINGLY...AT FRYING PAN SHOALS WHICH IS SE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THUS EXPERIENCING THE WEAKEST GRADIENT. BUOYS
41036...41037...AND 41038 ARE ALL WEST OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE NE
WINDS OF 20-30 KTS THIS MORNING. THESE NE WINDS WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH TONIGHT...SO EVEN THOUGH GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING MET
YET...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL BE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW ON THE HIGHER WINDS...RISING
FROM THE CURRENT 4-7 FT...TO AS MUCH AS 7-10 FT TONIGHT...WITH 12+
FT EXPECTED AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN
THE TYPICAL WAVE SHADOW REGION ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
COAST...WHERE 2-4 FT SEAS WILL BE PREDOMINANT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED WITH FLAGS IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. THOSE FLAGS LIKELY IN THE FORM OF GALE WARNING EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES TO ERODE
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHEN THAT WILL LOWER TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...COULD BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OR NOT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE WAVES REMAIN VERY STEEP AND LARGE. ABATING TREND ON MONDAY
SHOULD DROP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING
SEAS COULD MAKE IT UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN FLAGS ARE LOWERED.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BACKING WIND ON TUESDAY ASSOC WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. A SHARP VEER TO OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF SURGE
THAT COULD NECESSITATE A BRIEF ADVISORY BUT THINGS LOOK TO SETTLE
PRETTY QUICKLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COOL AIR HAS TROUBLE
MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AND THUS THERE IS NO BIG PUSH OF HIGH
PRESSURE...THE CENTER OF WHICH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL
HOWEVER DROP SOUTH AND EAST BY THURSDAY AND BE FOUND CENTERED UP AND
DOWN MUCH OF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/JDW
















000
FXUS62 KILM 191451
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1050 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL JUST DRIFT NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SC COAST
BY TONIGHT. AN ELONGATED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT IS EXTENDING NE FROM
THIS LOW PRESSURE TO JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...AND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL WAVER JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH DOWN TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AS WELL. ALL OF THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL CREATE A
CONTINUED CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED DAY...WITH INCREASING NE WINDS.

THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH FELL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING HAS MOSTLY EXITED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ONLY REMNANT
SHOWERS REMAINING LOCALLY. ALL AVAILABLE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE MODELS
THIS WELL...ALBEIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION THAT WHAT IS
ACTUALLY BEING OBSERVED. HOWEVER...THESE SAME MODELS SUGGEST THAT
HEAVIER RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP ONTO THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE
SATURATED...MUCH MORESO THAN 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS TO THE
SOUTH...WHICH SHOW PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB. EXPECT THIS DRY
AIR IS DUE TO THE RIDGE MOVING SOUTH AND SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP...BUT CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL SATURATION WILL
DRIVE OVERCAST SKY COVER AND PERIODIC SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTN.  BY THIS EVENING...COLUMN WILL ONCE AGAIN SATURATE AND MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE AS SHOWN VIA THE 09Z SREF
PLUMES...HIGHEST ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST...WHERE RAINFALL OF 2-4"
HAS ALREADY FALLEN SINCE LAST NIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN RAINFALL THIS EVE...NE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL REMAIN SHALLOW...NE WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME COMMON TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. WHILE THIS WILL FALL BELOW WI.Y
THRESHOLDS...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER AN SPS FOR ISOLATED WIND
IMPACTS...INCLUDING TREE DAMAGE ON THE SATURATED GROUND...WITH THE
AFTN PACKAGE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BARELY MOVE THANKS TO THE COOL NE WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER...AND EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...BUT SOME
LOW 60S ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND NEAR THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER. DIURNAL RANGES WILL ALSO BE LIMITED...AND THUS MINS
TONIGHT WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE LOW 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MOISTURE FROM THE NEAR TERM STORM SYSTEM TO
LINGER INTO SUNDAY.  THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THEN IS HOW FAR INLAND
RAIN MANAGES TO SPREAD AND WHAT THE AMOUNTS END UP LOOKING LIKE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST THAT
MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY IF SSTS DO NOT INHIBIT
VERTICAL MIXING IN THE STRONG ONSHORE JETTING. BL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR LESS OF AN INLAND PUSH OF MOISTURE. SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAY PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT THATS ABOUT IT.
MONDAY BRINGS MID LEVEL RIDGING/DRYING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BE SLOW TO ERODE FROM THE EASTERN ZONES HOWEVER ESPECIALLY IF THE
INVERSION SHOWN IN GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOPS TO HELP TRAP IT.
THIS FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR IN WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ON ACCOUNT OF LIMITED PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
FLUX. HEIGHT RISES ARE QUICK TO FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY OFFSETTING ANY
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION...WHICH THERE DOESNT SEEM TO BE MUCH OF
ANYWAY. LATE WEEK TEMPS TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND SURFACE HIGH ONLY VERY SLOWLY MIGRATES
EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE NOW OVER KILM AND SHIFTING TO
THE N-NE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS AREA FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVED
TEMPORARILY TO VFR. BUT GENERALLY FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR.
VFR/MVFR VSBYS WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS IN -RA DZ/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.

BECAUSE OF SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING AN INVERSION AROUND 1K...THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD
CHANCE THAT IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. CIGS COULD EVEN REACH MVFR BRIEFLY AT KLBT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS ANOTHER LOW PASSES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. KLBT/KFLO SHOULD HAVE THE LIGHTEST RAIN
WITH THE HEAVIEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...PARTICULARITY KMYR
WHICH WILL BE NEAREST THE LOW. AFTER THE LOW PASSES RAIN SHOULD
END AND CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR 08-10Z. VFR COULD DEVELOP BY 12Z BUT
DID NOT INDICATE THIS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO MVFR CIGS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR ON
MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA IS DRAPING
A COASTAL FRONT NE INTO THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. THIS LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
STRENGTHEN DOWN THE COAST. THESE TWO FEATURES IN TANDEM WILL DRIVE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CURRENT OBS SHOW THAT THE WEAKEST
WINDS ARE...SURPRISINGLY...AT FRYING PAN SHOALS WHICH IS SE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THUS EXPERIENCING THE WEAKEST GRADIENT. BUOYS
41036...41037...AND 41038 ARE ALL WEST OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE NE
WINDS OF 20-30 KTS THIS MORNING. THESE NE WINDS WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH TONIGHT...SO EVEN THOUGH GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING MET
YET...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL BE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW ON THE HIGHER WINDS...RISING
FROM THE CURRENT 4-7 FT...TO AS MUCH AS 7-10 FT TONIGHT...WITH 12+
FT EXPECTED AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN
THE TYPICAL WAVE SHADOW REGION ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
COAST...WHERE 2-4 FT SEAS WILL BE PREDOMINANT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED WITH FLAGS IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. THOSE FLAGS LIKELY IN THE FORM OF GALE WARNING EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES TO ERODE
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHEN THAT WILL LOWER TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...COULD BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OR NOT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE WAVES REMAIN VERY STEEP AND LARGE. ABATING TREND ON MONDAY
SHOULD DROP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING
SEAS COULD MAKE IT UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN FLAGS ARE LOWERED.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BACKING WIND ON TUESDAY ASSOC WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. A SHARP VEER TO OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF SURGE
THAT COULD NECESSITATE A BRIEF ADVISORY BUT THINGS LOOK TO SETTLE
PRETTY QUICKLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COOL AIR HAS TROUBLE
MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AND THUS THERE IS NO BIG PUSH OF HIGH
PRESSURE...THE CENTER OF WHICH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL
HOWEVER DROP SOUTH AND EAST BY THURSDAY AND BE FOUND CENTERED UP AND
DOWN MUCH OF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR













000
FXUS62 KILM 191150
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT N
AND E AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING. A DRY SLOT HAS WORKED ITS
WAY UP THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NORTH
CAROLINA AT SUNRISE. A SIGNIFICANT LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SOME OF THE MORE RESPECTED
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. THESE SAME MODELS ARE SHOWING
PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MORE SCATTERED. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE-HALF TO ONE-INCH DOES EXIST INTO SUN.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...DROPPING SLIGHTLY FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING.
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW E AND SE FLOW WILL BE TOPPED BY A
MOIST AND DEEP S TO SW FLOW WITH SPEEDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT AND
THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PERSIST. LATER IN THE DAY
AND TONIGHT...THE DEPTH OF EASTERLY WINDS INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS TRAPPED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS IS
TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...ANY MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS N FLORIDA TODAY WILL MOVE ENE AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TONIGHT. A VERY PRONOUNCED COASTAL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT TRENDING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH
THE RAIN MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES...IT WILL BE THE PERSISTENT
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL RESULT IN TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE THAN 3
INCHES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE DRY SLOT WHICH WILL ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE STALLING AND REORIENTING. THUS...IT WILL LIKELY NOT RAIN ALL
DAY IN MOST AREAS. WHERE RAIN DOES END FOR A TIME...IT WILL LIKELY
RETURN. WILL FORECAST 100 POPS THIS MORNING WITH POPS TRENDING LOWER
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL A LIKELIHOOD OF
RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND TONIGHT...DROPPING TO
CHANCE...ESPECIALLY LATE AND DURING SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST...ON THE S AND E SIDE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH STIFF AND
PERSISTENT NE WINDS. THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH AT THE COAST AND 30 TO 35 MPH FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE BEACHES. THE STRONG
AND PERSISTENT WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION...MAINLY IN
AREAS EXPOSED TO NE WINDS. THE RISK WILL BE HIGHEST DURING EACH HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. HIGH TIDE IS AT 11 AM AND NEAR MIDNIGHT.

MOISTURE PROFILES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO SHRUG OFF THE THICK CLOUDS...EVEN IF THE RAIN SHOULD CUT-OFF IN
ANY GIVEN LOCATION FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE COOL NE WINDS AND
CLOUDS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S FOR MOST OF US. TEMPS MAY NOT RISE ABOVE THE MID 50S WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. PORTIONS OF THE THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREA MAY EEK OUT MID 60S. NOT A SIGNIFICANT TEMP CHANGE
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST WELL INLAND...UPPER 40S. NEARER TO
THE COAST...LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MOISTURE FROM THE NEAR TERM STORM SYSTEM TO
LINGER INTO SUNDAY.  THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THEN IS HOW FAR INLAND
RAIN MANAGES TO SPREAD AND WHAT THE AMOUNTS END UP LOOKING LIKE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST THAT
MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY IF SSTS DO NOT INHIBIT
VERTICAL MIXING IN THE STRONG ONSHORE JETTING. BL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR LESS OF AN INLAND PUSH OF MOISTURE. SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAY PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT THATS ABOUT IT. MONDAY
BRINGS MID LEVEL RIDGING/DRYING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SLOW
TO ERODE FROM THE EASTERN ZONES HOWEVER ESPECIALLY IF THE INVERSION
SHOWN IN GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOPS TO HELP TRAP IT. THIS FEATURE
DOES NOT APPEAR IN WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ON ACCOUNT OF LIMITED PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
FLUX. HEIGHT RISES ARE QUICK TO FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY OFFSETTING ANY
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION...WHICH THERE DOESNT SEEM TO BE MUCH OF
ANYWAY. LATE WEEK TEMPS TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND SURFACE HIGH ONLY VERY SLOWLY MIGRATES
EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE NOW OVER KILM AND SHIFTING TO
THE N-NE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS AREA FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVED
TEMPORARILY TO VFR. BUT GENERALLY FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR.
VFR/MVFR VSBYS WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS IN -RA DZ/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.

BECAUSE OF SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING AN INVERSION AROUND 1K...THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD
CHANCE THAT IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. CIGS COULD EVEN REACH MVFR BRIEFLY AT KLBT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS ANOTHER LOW PASSES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. KLBT/KFLO SHOULD HAVE THE LIGHTEST RAIN
WITH THE HEAVIEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...PARTICULARITY KMYR
WHICH WILL BE NEAREST THE LOW. AFTER THE LOW PASSES RAIN SHOULD
END AND CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR 08-10Z. VFR COULD DEVELOP BY 12Z BUT
DID NOT INDICATE THIS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO MVFR CIGS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR ON
MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT INTO SUN. LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL EVER SO
SLOWLY MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A TRACK MORE EAST THAN
NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS IT GAINS LATITUDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A VERY
PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS. THE PATTERN WILL
EVOLVE VERY SLOWLY WITH THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE STILL SOUTH OF
THE WATERS SUN MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG NE WINDS IN PLACE. IN
FACT...A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
THE TIGHTEST OF THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE REALIZED LATE TONIGHT AND ON
SUN. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED AND A PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED GALES IS POSSIBLE. THESE STRONG AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS
WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 8 TO 12 FT WITH 14 FT POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING
PAN SHOALS. LOCATIONS BLOCKED BY NE FLOW...SUCH AS LONG BAY WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED WITH FLAGS IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. THOSE FLAGS LIKELY IN THE FORM OF GALE WARNING EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES TO ERODE
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHEN THAT WILL LOWER TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...COULD BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OR NOT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE WAVES REMAIN VERY STEEP AND LARGE. ABATING TREND ON MONDAY
SHOULD DROP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING
SEAS COULD MAKE IT UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN FLAGS ARE LOWERED.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BACKING WIND ON TUESDAY ASSOC WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. A SHARP VEER TO OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF SURGE
THAT COULD NECESSITATE A BRIEF ADVISORY BUT THINGS LOOK TO SETTLE
PRETTY QUICKLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COOL AIR HAS TROUBLE
MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AND THUS THERE IS NO BIG PUSH OF HIGH
PRESSURE...THE CENTER OF WHICH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL
HOWEVER DROP SOUTH AND EAST BY THURSDAY AND BE FOUND CENTERED UP AND
DOWN MUCH OF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 191051
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
651 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT N
AND E AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING. A DRY SLOT HAS WORKED ITS
WAY UP THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NORTH
CAROLINA AT SUNRISE. A SIGNIFICANT LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SOME OF THE MORE RESPECTED
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. THESE SAME MODELS ARE SHOWING
PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MORE SCATTERED. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE-HALF TO ONE-INCH DOES EXIST INTO SUN.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...DROPPING SLIGHTLY FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING.
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW E AND SE FLOW WILL BE TOPPED BY A
MOIST AND DEEP S TO SW FLOW WITH SPEEDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT AND
THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PERSIST. LATER IN THE DAY
AND TONIGHT...THE DEPTH OF EASTERLY WINDS INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS TRAPPED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS IS
TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...ANY MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS N FLORIDA TODAY WILL MOVE ENE AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TONIGHT. A VERY PRONOUNCED COASTAL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT TRENDING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH
THE RAIN MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES...IT WILL BE THE PERSISTENT
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL RESULT IN TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE THAN 3
INCHES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE DRY SLOT WHICH WILL ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE STALLING AND REORIENTING. THUS...IT WILL LIKELY NOT RAIN ALL
DAY IN MOST AREAS. WHERE RAIN DOES END FOR A TIME...IT WILL LIKELY
RETURN. WILL FORECAST 100 POPS THIS MORNING WITH POPS TRENDING LOWER
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL A LIKELIHOOD OF
RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND TONIGHT...DROPPING TO
CHANCE...ESPECIALLY LATE AND DURING SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST...ON THE S AND E SIDE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH STIFF AND
PERSISTENT NE WINDS. THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH AT THE COAST AND 30 TO 35 MPH FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE BEACHES. THE STRONG
AND PERSISTENT WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION...MAINLY IN
AREAS EXPOSED TO NE WINDS. THE RISK WILL BE HIGHEST DURING EACH HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. HIGH TIDE IS AT 11 AM AND NEAR MIDNIGHT.

MOISTURE PROFILES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO SHRUG OFF THE THICK CLOUDS...EVEN IF THE RAIN SHOULD CUT-OFF IN
ANY GIVEN LOCATION FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE COOL NE WINDS AND
CLOUDS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S FOR MOST OF US. TEMPS MAY NOT RISE ABOVE THE MID 50S WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. PORTIONS OF THE THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREA MAY EEK OUT MID 60S. NOT A SIGNIFICANT TEMP CHANGE
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST WELL INLAND...UPPER 40S. NEARER TO
THE COAST...LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MOISTURE FROM THE NEAR TERM STORM SYSTEM TO
LINGER INTO SUNDAY.  THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THEN IS HOW FAR INLAND
RAIN MANAGES TO SPREAD AND WHAT THE AMOUNTS END UP LOOKING LIKE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST THAT
MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY IF SSTS DO NOT INHIBIT
VERTICAL MIXING IN THE STRONG ONSHORE JETTING. BL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR LESS OF AN INLAND PUSH OF MOISTURE. SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAY PERSIST ALONG THE IMMED COAST BUT THATS ABOUT IT. MONDAY
BRINGS MID LEVEL RIDGING/DRYING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SLOW
TO ERODE FROM THE EASTERN ZONES HOWEVER ESPECIALLY IF THE INVERSION
SHOWN IN GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOPS TO HELP TRAP IT. THIS FEATURE
DOES NOT APPEAR IN WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ON ACCOUNT OF LIMITED PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
FLUX. HEIGHT RISES ARE QUICK TO FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY OFFSETTING ANY
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION...WHICH THERE DOESNT SEEM TO BE MUCH OF
ANYWAY. LATE WEEK TEMPS TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND SURFACE HIGH ONLY VERY SLOWLY MIGRATES
EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS -RA/RA
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE CONSTANT
RAINFALL SHOULD HELP TO LOWER CIGS BELOW 1KFT AT MOST TERMS.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
MORNING. SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL BRING
RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT IFR STRATUS PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. CIGS MAY LIFT TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CASE SCENARIO. LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-25 KT
DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED OFFSHORE. MVFR/IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...EVEN AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF BY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT INTO SUN. LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL EVER SO
SLOWLY MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A TRACK MORE EAST THAN
NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS IT GAINS LATITUDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A VERY
PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS. THE PATTERN WILL
EVOLVE VERY SLOWLY WITH THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE STILL SOUTH OF
THE WATERS SUN MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG NE WINDS IN PLACE. IN
FACT...A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
THE TIGHTEST OF THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE REALIZED LATE TONIGHT AND ON
SUN. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED AND A PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED GALES IS POSSIBLE. THESE STRONG AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS
WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 8 TO 12 FT WITH 14 FT POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING
PAN SHOALS. LOCATIONS BLOCKED BY NE FLOW...SUCH AS LONG BAY WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED WITH FLAGS IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. THOSE FLAGS LIKELY IN THE FORM OF GALE WARNING EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES TO ERODE
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHEN THAT WILL LOWER TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...COULD BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OR NOT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE WAVES REMAIN VERY STEEP AND LARGE. ABATING TREND ON MONDAY
SHOULD DROP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING
SEAS COULD MAKE IT UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN FLAGS ARE LOWERED.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BACKING WIND ON TUESDAY ASSOC WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. A SHARP VEER TO OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF SURGE
THAT COULD NECESSITATE A BRIEF ADVISORY BUT THINGS LOOK TO SETTLE
PRETTY QUICKLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COOL AIR HAS TROUBLE
MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AND THUS THERE IS NO BIG PUSH OF HIGH
PRESSURE...THE CENTER OF WHICH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL
HOWEVER DROP SOUTH AND EAST BY THURSDAY AND BE FOUND CENTERED UP AND
DOWN MUCH OF THE EAST COAST.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR/RJD







000
FXUS62 KILM 190717
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
317 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.5
INCHES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...DROPPING SLIGHTLY FROM W TO E LATE
TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. INTO THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW E AND SE
FLOW WILL BE TOPPED BY A MOIST AND DEEP S TO SW FLOW WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT AND THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
PERSIST. LATER IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT...THE DEPTH OF EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS TRAPPED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS IS
TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...ANY MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS N FLORIDA TODAY WILL MOVE ENE AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TONIGHT. A VERY PRONOUNCED COASTAL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT TRENDING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH
THE RAIN MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES...IT WILL BE THE PERSISTENT
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL RESULT IN TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE THAN 3
INCHES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE DRY SLOT WHICH WILL ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE STALLING AND REORIENTING. THUS...IT WILL LIKELY NOT RAIN ALL
DAY IN MOST AREAS. WHERE RAIN DOES END FOR A TIME...IT WILL LIKELY
RETURN. WILL FORECAST 100 POPS THIS MORNING WITH POPS TRENDING LOWER
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL A LIKELIHOOD OF
RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND TONIGHT...DROPPING TO
CHANCE...ESPECIALLY LATE AND DURING SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST...ON THE S AND E SIDE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH STIFF AND
PERSISTENT NE WINDS. THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH AT THE COAST AND 30 TO 35 MPH FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE BEACHES. THE STRONG
AND PERSISTENT WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION...MAINLY IN
AREAS EXPOSED TO NE WINDS. THE RISK WILL BE HIGHEST DURING EACH HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. HIGH TIDE IS AT 11 AM AND NEAR MIDNIGHT.

MOISTURE PROFILES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO SHRUG OFF THE THICK CLOUDS...EVEN IF THE RAIN SHOULD CUT-OFF IN
ANY GIVEN LOCATION FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE COOL NE WINDS AND
CLOUDS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S FOR MOST OF US. TEMPS MAY NOT RISE ABOVE THE MID 50S WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. PORTIONS OF THE THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREA MAY EEK OUT MID 60S. NOT A SIGNIFICANT TEMP CHANGE
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST WELL INLAND...UPPER 40S. NEARER TO
THE COAST...LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MOISTURE FROM THE NEAR TERM STORM SYSTEM TO
LINGER INTO SUNDAY.  THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THEN IS HOW FAR INLAND
RAIN MANAGES TO SPREAD AND WHAT THE AMOUNTS END UP LOOKING LIKE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST THAT
MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY IF SSTS DO NOT INHIBIT
VERTICAL MIXING IN THE STRONG ONSHORE JETTING. BL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR LESS OF AN INLAND PUSH OF MOISTURE. SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAY PERSIST ALONG THE IMMED COAST BUT THATS ABOUT IT. MONDAY
BRINGS MID LEVEL RIDGING/DRYING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SLOW
TO ERODE FROM THE EASTERN ZONES HOWEVER ESPECIALLY IF THE INVERSION
SHOWN IN GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOPS TO HELP TRAP IT. THIS FEATURE
DOES NOT APPEAR IN WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ON ACCOUNT OF LIMITED PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
FLUX. HEIGHT RISES ARE QUICK TO FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY OFFSETTING ANY
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION...WHICH THERE DOESNT SEEM TO BE MUCH OF
ANYWAY. LATE WEEK TEMPS TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND SURFACE HIGH ONLY VERY SLOWLY MIGRATES
EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS -RA/RA
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE CONSTANT
RAINFALL SHOULD HELP TO LOWER CIGS BELOW 1KFT AT MOST TERMS.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
MORNING. SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL BRING
RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT IFR STRATUS PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. CIGS MAY LIFT TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CASE SCENARIO. LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-25 KT
DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED OFFSHORE. MVFR/IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...EVEN AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF BY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT INTO SUN. LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL EVER SO
SLOWLY MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A TRACK MORE EAST THAN
NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS IT GAINS LATITUDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A VERY
PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS. THE PATTERN WILL
EVOLVE VERY SLOWLY WITH THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE STILL SOUTH OF
THE WATERS SUN MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG NE WINDS IN PLACE. IN
FACT...A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
THE TIGHTEST OF THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE REALIZED LATE TONIGHT AND ON
SUN. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED AND A PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED GALES IS POSSIBLE. THESE STRONG AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS
WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 8 TO 12 FT WITH 14 FT POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING
PAN SHOALS. LOCATIONS BLOCKED BY NE FLOW...SUCH AS LONG BAY WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED WITH FLAGS IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. THOSE FLAGS LIKELY IN THE FORM OF GALE WARNING EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES TO ERODE
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHEN THAT WILL LOWER TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...COULD BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OR NOT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE WAVES REMAIN VERY STEEP AND LARGE. ABATING TREND ON MONDAY
SHOULD DROP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING
SEAS COULD MAKE IT UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN FLAGS ARE LOWERED.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BACKING WIND ON TUESDAY ASSOC WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. A SHARP VEER TO OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF SURGE
THAT COULD NECESSITATE A BRIEF ADVISORY BUT THINGS LOOK TO SETTLE
PRETTY QUICKLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COOL AIR HAS TROUBLE
MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AND THUS THERE IS NO BIG PUSH OF HIGH
PRESSURE...THE CENTER OF WHICH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL
HOWEVER DROP SOUTH AND EAST BY THURSDAY AND BE FOUND CENTERED UP AND
DOWN MUCH OF THE EAST COAST.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR/RJD








000
FXUS62 KILM 190534
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
134 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY. STIFF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPORADIC AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REASSERT ITSELF BRIEFLY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...KLTX AS WELL AS MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ILLUSTRATE
THE RAIN COMPLETELY BLANKETING THE ILM CWA. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS NOW FALLING ACROSS THE FA...WITH POCKETS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS WILLIAMSBURG AND HORRY COUNTIES. THE SFC
COASTAL TROF LIES NE-SW JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE ILM
COASTAL CWA. THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE MENTIONED ILM CWA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THAT WAS SOUTH OF THE COASTAL TROF THAT
PUSHED NORTHWARD ACROSS THIS TROF AND THEN ONSHORE WHERE
INSTABILITY LACKED TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...THIS
CONVECTIVE PCPN TRANSITIONED INTO STRATIFORM MODERATE TO POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN. WITH ALL THIS SAID...LOOKING AT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE 1ST HALF OF
SATURDAY.

HIGH TIDE LEVELS TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PEAK OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
VIA CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...THE ONSHORE
MOVEMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED BY
CHS...WILL TRANSLATE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THE ILM CWA. IT IS
PROGGED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT REACHES THE ILM CWA DURING
THIS LATE EVENING THROUGH THE SAT PRE-DAWN HOURS. AS A RESULT...
HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
FOR DOWNTOWN ILM AND PORTIONS OF CAPE FEAR SOUTH OF SNOWS CUT
RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR INCREASING RAINFALL COINCIDING
WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. HOWEVER...LIKE PREVIOUSLY SAID...
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER PCPN TO ARRIVE MUCH LATER THEN THE HIGH TIDE
OCCURRENCE LATE THIS EVENING.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK AOK...WITH VERY LITTLE MASSAGING NEEDED TO
THE DOWNSIDE. VIA VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE
FA...A NE-ENE 30 TO 40 KT WIND WILL PERSIST JUST OFF THE DECK
OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE WINDS MAY GET CARRIED TO
THE SFC AS WIND GUSTS OR BY FURTHER INCREASING SUSTAINED VALUES.
AS A RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED WINDS UPWARDS ACROSS THE CWA ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY ONSHORE. WITH THE
COASTAL TROF REMAINING OFFSHORE...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND IN THE 40S THE FURTHER INLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO REACH THE GEORGIA COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE WILL COUPLE WITH MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CURRENTLY SURGING FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST AND
OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS FOR THE ILM CWA. MOS GUIDANCE IS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 INLAND TO NEAR 55 ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH AN ONGOING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SATURDAY MORNING
WILL FIND THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH A WARM FRONT LINED UP JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW. HAVE AGAIN LEANED ON THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS AS THEY SEEMED IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE NAM WHICH GOES
FOR AN OVERALL DRYER FORECAST. DID NOT LIKE HOW THE NAM WEAKENS AND
THEN TRIES TO WASH OUT THE SYSTEM EARLY. PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE SHOWS
THAT THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS HANG IN LONGER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE AND BASED ON MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL START OFF
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. CHANCE POPS AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WILL EXTEND INTO SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND NO MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...BUT
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

A VERY SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL FINALLY BE PUSHING AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND DEFLECTS IT OFFSHORE.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY...DRYING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND A LOT
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT WORKS
EAST ON TUESDAY...LIKELY CROSSING THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...BUT
SOME CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO SEASONABLE OR
JUST BELOW AGAIN WED/THU...EVEN WITH AMPLE LATE-APRIL SUNSHINE.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
A NICE WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS -RA/RA
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE CONSTANT
RAINFALL SHOULD HELP TO LOWER CIGS BELOW 1KFT AT MOST TERMS.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
MORNING. SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL BRING
RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT IFR STRATUS PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. CIGS MAY LIFT TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CASE SCENARIO. LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-25 KT
DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED OFFSHORE. MVFR/IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...EVEN AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF BY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...NE-ENE WINDS REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. A TIGHTENED SFC PG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...AND THE 40+ KT WINDS JUST OFF THE
DECK...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A NE WIND AT 15-25 KT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
STRONGLY WORDED SCA REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WILL HAVE TO ONCE AGAIN
WATCH FOR FUTURE CONDITIONS THAT MAY REQUIRE GALES. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL HOLD RELATIVELY IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT RANGE WITH SEAS
APPROACHING 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND
ALSO OFF CAPE ROMAIN. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 6 TO 7 SECONDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GEORGIA
COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER AND WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
WATERS...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE ENE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHTEN UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER GRADIENT. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINDS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ROUGH SEAS WILL WARRANT ITS CONTINUATION THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXTEND THROUGH
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE NEAR TERM AS A STEADY MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WINDS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE MODEST...ONLY IN THE
10 TO 15 KT RANGE...THEY WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF FLORIDA. SEAS WILL
BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE AS A RESULT. HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY...LEAVING
NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL EASE FROM 15-20 KTS EARLY TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE
AREA BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS RESPOND QUICKLY TO THESE CHANGING CONDITIONS...BECOMING SW AT
10-20 KTS TUESDAY...AND THEN QUICKLY VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AT 15-25 KTS. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST SEAS
ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...AND SOME 6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A BRIEF SCA MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS THEN REMAIN FROM THE
NW ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/CRM
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR/RJD









000
FXUS62 KILM 190323
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1123 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEAST. A HIGH PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THEN REASSERT ITSELF BRIEFLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...KLTX AS WELL AS MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ILLUSTRATE
THE RAIN COMPLETELY BLANKETING THE ILM CWA. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS NOW FALLING ACROSS THE FA...WITH POCKETS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS WILLIAMSBURG AND HORRY COUNTIES. THE SFC
COASTAL TROF LIES NE-SW JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE ILM
COASTAL CWA. THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE MENTIONED ILM CWA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THAT WAS SOUTH OF THE COASTAL TROF THAT
PUSHED NORTHWARD ACROSS THIS TROF AND THEN ONSHORE WHERE
INSTABILITY LACKED TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...THIS
CONVECTIVE PCPN TRANSITIONED INTO STRATIFORM MODERATE TO POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN. WITH ALL THIS SAID...LOOKING AT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE 1ST HALF OF
SATURDAY.

HIGH TIDE LEVELS TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PEAK OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
VIA CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...THE ONSHORE
MOVEMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED BY
CHS...WILL TRANSLATE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THE ILM CWA. IT IS
PROGGED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT REACHES THE ILM CWA DURING
THIS LATE EVENING THROUGH THE SAT PRE-DAWN HOURS. AS A RESULT...
HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
FOR DOWNTOWN ILM AND PORTIONS OF CAPE FEAR SOUTH OF SNOWS CUT
RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR INCREASING RAINFALL COINCIDING
WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. HOWEVER...LIKE PREVIOUSLY SAID
...LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER PCPN TO ARRIVE MUCH LATER THEN THE HIGH
TIDE OCCURRENCE LATE THIS EVENING.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK AOK...WITH VERY LITTLE MASSAGING NEEDED TO
THE DOWNSIDE. VIA VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE
FA...A NE-ENE 30 TO 40 KT WIND WILL PERSIST JUST OFF THE DECK
OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE WINDS MAY GET CARRIED TO
THE SFC AS WIND GUSTS OR BY FURTHER INCREASING SUSTAINED VALUES.
AS A RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED WINDS UPWARDS ACROSS THE CWA ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY ONSHORE. WITH THE
COASTAL TROF REMAINING OFFSHORE...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND IN THE 40S THE FURTHER INLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...A CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO REACH THE GEORGIA COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE WILL COUPLE WITH MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW TO ENHANCE LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
CURRENTLY SURGING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA
WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
FOR THE ILM CWA. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT. WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 INLAND TO NEAR 55 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH AN ONGOING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SATURDAY
MORNING WILL FIND THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WARM FRONT LINED UP JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW. HAVE AGAIN
LEANED ON THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY SEEMED IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN THE NAM WHICH GOES FOR AN OVERALL DRYER FORECAST.
DID NOT LIKE HOW THE NAM WEAKENS AND THEN TRIES TO WASH OUT THE
SYSTEM EARLY. PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS HANG IN LONGER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE AND BASED ON MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL START OFF
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. CHANCE POPS AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WILL EXTEND INTO SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND NO MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...BUT WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

A VERY SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL FINALLY BE PUSHING AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND DEFLECTS IT OFFSHORE.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY...DRYING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND A LOT
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT WORKS
EAST ON TUESDAY...LIKELY CROSSING THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...BUT
SOME CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO SEASONABLE OR
JUST BELOW AGAIN WED/THU...EVEN WITH AMPLE LATE-APRIL SUNSHINE.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
A NICE WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS EVENING AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN IMPACTS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL BE THE
DRIVING FORCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE RAIN SHIELD IS ALREADY
SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS
EVENING AS STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL...BEGINNING WITH KFLO...
KMYR AND KCRE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS THE RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD...
KILM/KLBT SHOULD DROP TO IFR BY 06Z. EXPECT CONSTANT -RA/RA TONIGHT
WITH TEMPO +RA LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS CIGS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1KFT FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY AFTN...MOST LIKELY
AT KFLO/KLBT IF IT OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MEANDERS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND ITS WARM FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF  PM FRIDAY...NE-ENE WINDS REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. A TIGHTENED SFC PG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...AND THE 40+ KT WINDS JUST OFF THE
DECK...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A NE WIND AT 15-25 KT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
STRONGLY WORDED SCA REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WILL HAVE TO ONCE AGAIN
WATCH FOR FUTURE CONDITIONS THAT MAY REQUIRE GALES. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL HOLD RELATIVELY IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT RANGE WITH SEAS
APPROACHING 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND
ALSO OFF CAPE ROMAIN. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 6 TO 7 SECONDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GEORGIA
COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER AND WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
WATERS...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE ENE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHTEN UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER GRADIENT. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINDS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ROUGH SEAS WILL WARRANT ITS CONTINUATION THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXTEND THROUGH
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE NEAR TERM AS A STEADY MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
MODEST...ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...THEY WILL INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE AS A RESULT.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY...LEAVING
NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL EASE FROM 15-20 KTS EARLY TO LESS THAN
10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS RESPOND QUICKLY TO THESE CHANGING
CONDITIONS...BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS TUESDAY...AND THEN QUICKLY
VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AT 15-25
KTS. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...AND SOME
6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A BRIEF SCA MAY
BE NEEDED. WINDS THEN REMAIN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...DCH/CRM
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KILM 190101
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
901 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEAST. A HIGH PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THEN REASSERT ITSELF BRIEFLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...KLTX AS WELL AS MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS
ILLUSTRATE THE RAIN HAVING FINALLY MADE ITS WAY NORTHWARD AND NOW
COMPLETELY BLANKETS THE ILM CWA. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IS NOW FALLING ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 1ST HALF OF
SATURDAY.

HIGH TIDE LEVELS TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PEAK OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
VIA CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...THE ONSHORE
MOVEMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED BY
CHS...WILL TRANSLATE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TO THE ILM CWA. IT IS
PROGGED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT REACHES THE ILM CWA DURING
THE MID TO LATE PRE-DAWN SAT HOURS. AS A RESULT...HAVE REFRAINED
FROM ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR DOWNTOWN
ILM AND PORTIONS OF CAPE FEAR SOUTH OF SNOWS CUT RIDGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR INCREASING RAINFALL COINCIDING WITH THE
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. LIKE PREVIOUSLY SAID...LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIER PCPN TO ARRIVE MUCH LATER THAN HIDE TIDE LATE THIS
EVENING.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK AOK...WITH VERY LITTLE MASSAGING NEEDED TO
THE DOWNSIDE. VIA VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE
FA...A NE-ENE 30 TO 40 KT WILL PERSIST JUST OFF THE DECK OVERNIGHT
THRU SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE WINDS MAY GET CARRIED TO THE SFC AS
WIND GUSTS OR BY FURTHER INCREASING SUSTAINED VALUES. AS A
RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED WINDS UPWARDS ACROSS THE CWA ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY ONSHORE. WITH THE
COASTAL TROF REMAINING OFFSHORE...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND IN THE 40S THE FURTHER INLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...A CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO REACH THE GEORGIA COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE WILL COUPLE WITH MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW TO ENHANCE LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
CURRENTLY SURGING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA
WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
FOR THE ILM CWA. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT. WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 INLAND TO NEAR 55 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH AN ONGOING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SATURDAY
MORNING WILL FIND THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WARM FRONT LINED UP JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW. HAVE AGAIN
LEANED ON THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY SEEMED IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN THE NAM WHICH GOES FOR AN OVERALL DRYER FORECAST.
DID NOT LIKE HOW THE NAM WEAKENS AND THEN TRIES TO WASH OUT THE
SYSTEM EARLY. PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS HANG IN LONGER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE AND BASED ON MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL START OFF
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. CHANCE POPS AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WILL EXTEND INTO SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND NO MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...BUT WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

A VERY SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL FINALLY BE PUSHING AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND DEFLECTS IT OFFSHORE.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY...DRYING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND A LOT
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT WORKS
EAST ON TUESDAY...LIKELY CROSSING THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...BUT
SOME CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO SEASONABLE OR
JUST BELOW AGAIN WED/THU...EVEN WITH AMPLE LATE-APRIL SUNSHINE.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
A NICE WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS EVENING AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN IMPACTS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL BE THE
DRIVING FORCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE RAIN SHIELD IS ALREADY
SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS
EVENING AS STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL...BEGINNING WITH KFLO...
KMYR AND KCRE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS THE RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD...
KILM/KLBT SHOULD DROP TO IFR BY 06Z. EXPECT CONSTANT -RA/RA TONIGHT
WITH TEMPO +RA LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS CIGS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1KFT FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY AFTN...MOST LIKELY
AT KFLO/KLBT IF IT OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MEANDERS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND ITS WARM FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 815 PM FRIDAY...NE-ENE WINDS REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. A TIGHTENED SFC PG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...AND THE 40+ KT WINDS JUST OFF THE
DECK...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A NE WIND AT 15-25 KT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
STRONGLY WORDED SCA REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WILL HAVE TO ONCE AGAIN
WATCH FOR FUTURE CONDITIONS THAT MAY REQUIRE GALES. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL HOLD RELATIVELY IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT RANGE WITH SEAS
APPROACHING 8 TO 10 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR...AND ALSO OFF CAPE ROMAIN. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 6 TO 7
SECONDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GEORGIA
COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER AND WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
WATERS...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE ENE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHTEN UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER GRADIENT. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINDS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ROUGH SEAS WILL WARRANT ITS CONTINUATION THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXTEND THROUGH
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE NEAR TERM AS A STEADY MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
MODEST...ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...THEY WILL INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE AS A RESULT.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY...LEAVING
NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL EASE FROM 15-20 KTS EARLY TO LESS THAN
10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS RESPOND QUICKLY TO THESE CHANGING
CONDITIONS...BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS TUESDAY...AND THEN QUICKLY
VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AT 15-25
KTS. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...AND SOME
6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A BRIEF SCA MAY
BE NEEDED. WINDS THEN REMAIN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...DCH/CRM
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 182335
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
735 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEAST. A HIGH PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THEN REASSERT ITSELF BRIEFLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...A CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO REACH THE GEORGIA COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE WILL COUPLE WITH MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW TO ENHANCE LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
CURRENTLY SURGING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA
WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
FOR THE ILM CWA. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT. WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 INLAND TO NEAR 55 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH AN ONGOING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SATURDAY
MORNING WILL FIND THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WARM FRONT LINED UP JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW. HAVE AGAIN
LEANED ON THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY SEEMED IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN THE NAM WHICH GOES FOR AN OVERALL DRYER FORECAST.
DID NOT LIKE HOW THE NAM WEAKENS AND THEN TRIES TO WASH OUT THE
SYSTEM EARLY. PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS HANG IN LONGER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE AND BASED ON MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL START OFF
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. CHANCE POPS AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WILL EXTEND INTO SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND NO MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...BUT WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

A VERY SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL FINALLY BE PUSHING AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND DEFLECTS IT OFFSHORE.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY...DRYING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND A LOT
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT WORKS
EAST ON TUESDAY...LIKELY CROSSING THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...BUT
SOME CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO SEASONABLE OR
JUST BELOW AGAIN WED/THU...EVEN WITH AMPLE LATE-APRIL SUNSHINE.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
A NICE WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS EVENING AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN IMPACTS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL BE THE
DRIVING FORCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE RAIN SHIELD IS ALREADY
SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS
EVENING AS STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL...BEGINNING WITH KFLO...
KMYR AND KCRE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS THE RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD...
KILM/KLBT SHOULD DROP TO IFR BY 06Z. EXPECT CONSTANT -RA/RA TONIGHT
WITH TEMPO +RA LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS CIGS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1KFT FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY AFTN...MOST LIKELY
AT KFLO/KLBT IF IT OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MEANDERS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND ITS WARM FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GEORGIA
COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER AND WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
WATERS...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE ENE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHTEN UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER GRADIENT. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINDS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ROUGH SEAS WILL WARRANT ITS CONTINUATION THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXTEND THROUGH
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE NEAR TERM AS A STEADY MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
MODEST...ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...THEY WILL INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE AS A RESULT.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY...LEAVING
NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL EASE FROM 15-20 KTS EARLY TO LESS THAN
10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS RESPOND QUICKLY TO THESE CHANGING
CONDITIONS...BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS TUESDAY...AND THEN QUICKLY
VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AT 15-25
KTS. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...AND SOME
6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A BRIEF SCA MAY
BE NEEDED. WINDS THEN REMAIN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/JDW/CRM










000
FXUS62 KILM 181912
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
312 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEAST. A HIGH PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THEN REASSERT ITSELF BRIEFLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...A CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO REACH THE GEORGIA COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE WILL COUPLE WITH MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW TO ENHANCE LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
CURRENTLY SURGING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA
WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
FOR THE ILM CWA. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT. WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 INLAND TO NEAR 55 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH AN ONGOING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SATURDAY
MORNING WILL FIND THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WARM FRONT LINED UP JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW. HAVE AGAIN
LEANED ON THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY SEEMED IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN THE NAM WHICH GOES FOR AN OVERALL DRYER FORECAST.
DID NOT LIKE HOW THE NAM WEAKENS AND THEN TRIES TO WASH OUT THE
SYSTEM EARLY. PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS HANG IN LONGER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE AND BASED ON MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL START OFF
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. CHANCE POPS AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WILL EXTEND INTO SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND NO MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...BUT WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

A VERY SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL FINALLY BE PUSHING AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND DEFLECTS IT OFFSHORE.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY...DRYING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND A LOT
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT WORKS
EAST ON TUESDAY...LIKELY CROSSING THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...BUT
SOME CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO SEASONABLE OR
JUST BELOW AGAIN WED/THU...EVEN WITH AMPLE LATE-APRIL SUNSHINE.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
A NICE WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE SOUTH SPREADS RAIN NE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CIGS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 2.0-6K...LOWEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR VSBYS
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN. THE MAIN AREA
OF RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SW-NE INITIALLY REACHING KFLO/KMYR 20-21Z
AND THE REMAINING TERMINALS 1-3 HOURS LATER. ONCE THE MAIN RAIN BAND
MOVES IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY MODERATE RAINFALL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THERE COULD BE LIGHTER RAINFALL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE TERMINALS. IF
THIS OCCURS VSBYS COULD IMPROVE...BUT STILL EXPECT IFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE IN A SATURATED LOW-LEVEL UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. NE-N WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS SATURDAY COULD LINGER WELL INTO
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. TEMPO MVFR/SHOWERS TUESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GEORGIA
COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER AND WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
WATERS...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE ENE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHTEN UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER GRADIENT. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINDS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ROUGH SEAS WILL WARRANT ITS CONTINUATION THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXTEND THROUGH
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE NEAR TERM AS A STEADY MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
MODEST...ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...THEY WILL INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE AS A RESULT.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY...LEAVING
NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL EASE FROM 15-20 KTS EARLY TO LESS THAN
10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS RESPOND QUICKLY TO THESE CHANGING
CONDITIONS...BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS TUESDAY...AND THEN QUICKLY
VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AT 15-25
KTS. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...AND SOME
6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A BRIEF SCA MAY
BE NEEDED. WINDS THEN REMAIN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW/CRM







000
FXUS62 KILM 181411
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1011 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWARD TO UPSTATE
SC...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF
SYSTEM HAS ADVANCED NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE SC-GA STATE LINE. THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE 06Z NAM AND GFS IN REGARDS TO HOW THIS
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND THE RESULTS
ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED RAINFALL TOTALS. THE
NAM SUGGESTS THE UPPER LOW WILL CAPTURE THE SURFACE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN GA LATE TONIGHT AND KEEP IT ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK...ALONG WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL. THE GFS
DEPICTION CONTINUES THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE
LOW ...NOT BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW UNTIL
MUCH LATER. THIS WOULD BRING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL MUCH
CLOSER TO THE CWA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS...LENDING CONFIDENCE TO THAT SOLUTION.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A LID ON MAX TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST AREAS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
ONSHORE THIS MORNING...AND POPS WILL TREND UP RAPIDLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
RESULTING LACK OF DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW REDUCES THE CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION FOR THE ILM CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EXITING THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AND SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E-NE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED FARTHER
SOUTH BUT WILL NOT KEEP IT FROM SPREADING RAIN INTO THE CAROLINAS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
KEEP A DECENT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE BEST LIFT
WILL COME THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
BUT MAY SEE SOME DRY AIR GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS LATER IN THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAKENING
LIFT AND SOME DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THE LOW WILL SHIFT
ALMOST DUE EAST FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW BUT BEST LIFT WILL BE
DISPLACED TO THE EAST. THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS AND LINGERING PCP
HEADING INTO SUNDAY BUT WILL KEEP GREATEST QPF EAST. THE STIFF
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO
LOCAL AREA WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCHES FOCUSED MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST SAT MORNING DIMINISHING TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT
EVENING AND DOWN LESS THAN A HALF INCH AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM KEEPS DRY AIR
FURTHER TO THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH GREATEST QPF ON SATURDAY
BUT LINGERING PCP INTO SUNDAY. EXPECTING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT...WITH QPF EVENT TOTALS IN THE 1.0 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S BOTH DAYS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS SOUTH
INTO AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH
MONDAY. A DRIER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE
SKY LEAVING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND CUTOFF
LOW WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK THROUGH
TUES AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE AHEAD
OF PROGRESSING FRONT. THE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY KEEPING
MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...BUT HAVE INCLUDED
INCREASED CHC FOR CONVECTION ON TUES AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN W-NW KEEPING A WARMER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW WITH HEIGHTS RISING INTO MID WEEK AS MID TO UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.

OVERALL EXPECT WARMER MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. ONLY REAL CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP WILL COME ON TUES WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM APRIL
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS REACHING UP WELL INTO THE 70S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH SPREADS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTH
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CIGS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE 4-6K
OR HIGHER. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
CIGS AROUND 2.5K FT COULD OCCUR.

MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
ALL AGREE THAT GENERALLY STRATIFORM RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. PATCHES OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY 20-21Z...ONE TO THREE
HOURS LATER FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD PRODUCE FAIRLY STEADY STRATIFORM PRECIP WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AND IFR OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS FRIDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY. VFR
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS INDICATE WIND SPEEDS IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE NEAR
SHORE...INCREASING TO A 20-25 KNOT RANGE AT 41013. SEAS WERE IN A
4-7 FT RANGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT AND
SEAS WILL BUILD ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A NORTHEAST TRACK OUT OF THE GULF...BRINGING IT
TO A POSITION NEAR THE GA COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OUTERMOST WATERS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
VARIABLE WINDS AS TROUGH EXTENDS UP FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE OFF SHORE WATERS. MAY SEE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY BUT AS NEXT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
INCREASE. AS WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT AFTN SEAS MAY DROP NEAR
OR JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE SHOOTING UP ONCE AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH SAT
BEFORE RAPIDLY RISING THROUGH LATE SAT UP TO 7 TO 9 FT. WNA HAS
SEAS PEAKING UP TO 10 FT SUN MORNING AS NORTHERLY WINDS REACH 25
TO 30 KTS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEREFORE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OUT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BACK
AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD SEE A
MODERATE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUES INTO
WED OFF SHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING NEAR SHORE SEAS TO DROP
OUT WHILE OFF SHORE SEAS MAY RISE A BIT. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS TO
DIMINISH THROUGH MON WITH A RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TUES INTO WED IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT HEADING INTO WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 181129
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
729 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS ARE LOW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC. MOST PRECIP NOTED VIA RADAR REMAINS ACROSS GA...OR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH FAR OFFSHORE AT THE
MOMENT. TRENDS FOR INCREASING RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ARE ON TRACK
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...TODAY WE WILL TRANSITION FROM DRY CONDITIONS
WITH AN OLD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO A HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR RAINFALL BY TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE AS LOW
PRESSURES TRANSLATES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY TO OVER FL BY
TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE GULF AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING INTO PLAY THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES) THEN ALL AREAS TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE 1 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE KEEPING THE WARM SECTOR OFFSHORE AS
WELL. THE RESULTING COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WEST OF THE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL WILL ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EXITING THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AND SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E-NE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED FARTHER
SOUTH BUT WILL NOT KEEP IT FROM SPREADING RAIN INTO THE CAROLINAS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
KEEP A DECENT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE BEST LIFT
WILL COME THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
BUT MAY SEE SOME DRY AIR GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS LATER IN THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAKENING
LIFT AND SOME DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THE LOW WILL SHIFT
ALMOST DUE EAST FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW BUT BEST LIFT WILL BE
DISPLACED TO THE EAST. THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS AND LINGERING PCP
HEADING INTO SUNDAY BUT WILL KEEP GREATEST QPF EAST. THE STIFF
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO
LOCAL AREA WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCHES FOCUSED MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST SAT MORNING DIMINISHING TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT
EVENING AND DOWN LESS THAN A HALF INCH AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM KEEPS DRY AIR
FURTHER TO THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH GREATEST QPF ON SATURDAY
BUT LINGERING PCP INTO SUNDAY. EXPECTING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT...WITH QPF EVENT TOTALS IN THE 1.0 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S BOTH DAYS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS SOUTH
INTO AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH
MONDAY. A DRIER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE
SKY LEAVING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND CUTOFF
LOW WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK THROUGH
TUES AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE AHEAD
OF PROGRESSING FRONT. THE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY KEEPING
MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...BUT HAVE INCLUDED
INCREASED CHC FOR CONVECTION ON TUES AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN W-NW KEEPING A WARMER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW WITH HEIGHTS RISING INTO MID WEEK AS MID TO UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.

OVERALL EXPECT WARMER MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. ONLY REAL CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP WILL COME ON TUES WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM APRIL
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS REACHING UP WELL INTO THE 70S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH SPREADS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTH
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CIGS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE 4-6K
OR HIGHER. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
CIGS AROUND 2.5K FT COULD OCCUR.

MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
ALL AGREE THAT GENERALLY STRATIFORM RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. PATCHES OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY 20-21Z...ONE TO THREE
HOURS LATER FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD PRODUCE FAIRLY STEADY STRATIFORM PRECIP WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AND IFR OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS FRIDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY. VFR
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY 10-15 KNOTS INSHORE BUT
ARE LIKELY AROUND 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE NORTHEAST FETCH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST TO
3-5 FT NEAR SHORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION ARE THE SEAS ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE THERE ARE FETCH
LIMITATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...THEN AS LOW PRESSURE
EVOLVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SWAN OUTPUT APPEARS TOO LOW
CONSIDERING THE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FETCH TODAY...AND HAVE BUMPED
THE OUTPUT UP BY 1 TO 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OUTERMOST WATERS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
VARIABLE WINDS AS TROUGH EXTENDS UP FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE OFF SHORE WATERS. MAY SEE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY BUT AS NEXT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
INCREASE. AS WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT AFTN SEAS MAY DROP NEAR
OR JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE SHOOTING UP ONCE AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH SAT
BEFORE RAPIDLY RISING THROUGH LATE SAT UP TO 7 TO 9 FT. WNA HAS
SEAS PEAKING UP TO 10 FT SUN MORNING AS NORTHERLY WINDS REACH 25
TO 30 KTS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEREFORE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OUT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BACK
AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD SEE A
MODERATE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUES INTO
WED OFF SHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING NEAR SHORE SEAS TO DROP
OUT WHILE OFF SHORE SEAS MAY RISE A BIT. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS TO
DIMINISH THROUGH MON WITH A RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TUES INTO WED IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT HEADING INTO WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 181032
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
631 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS ARE LOW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC. MOST PRECIP NOTED VIA RADAR REMAINS ACROSS GA...OR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH FAR OFFSHORE AT THE
MOMENT. TRENDS FOR INCREASING RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ARE ON TRACK
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...TODAY WE WILL TRANSITION FROM DRY CONDITIONS
WITH AN OLD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO A HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR RAINFALL BY TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE AS LOW
PRESSURES TRANSLATES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY TO OVER FL BY
TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE GULF AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING INTO PLAY THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES) THEN ALL AREAS TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE 1 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE KEEPING THE WARM SECTOR OFFSHORE AS
WELL. THE RESULTING COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WEST OF THE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL WILL ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EXITING THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AND SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E-NE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED FARTHER
SOUTH BUT WILL NOT KEEP IT FROM SPREADING RAIN INTO THE CAROLINAS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
KEEP A DECENT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE BEST LIFT
WILL COME THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
BUT MAY SEE SOME DRY AIR GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS LATER IN THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAKENING
LIFT AND SOME DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THE LOW WILL SHIFT
ALMOST DUE EAST FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW BUT BEST LIFT WILL BE
DISPLACED TO THE EAST. THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS AND LINGERING PCP
HEADING INTO SUNDAY BUT WILL KEEP GREATEST QPF EAST. THE STIFF
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO
LOCAL AREA WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCHES FOCUSED MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST SAT MORNING DIMINISHING TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT
EVENING AND DOWN LESS THAN A HALF INCH AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM KEEPS DRY AIR
FURTHER TO THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH GREATEST QPF ON SATURDAY
BUT LINGERING PCP INTO SUNDAY. EXPECTING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT...WITH QPF EVENT TOTALS IN THE 1.0 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S BOTH DAYS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS SOUTH
INTO AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH
MONDAY. A DRIER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE
SKY LEAVING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND CUTOFF
LOW WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK THROUGH
TUES AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE AHEAD
OF PROGRESSING FRONT. THE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY KEEPING
MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...BUT HAVE INCLUDED
INCREASED CHC FOR CONVECTION ON TUES AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN W-NW KEEPING A WARMER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW WITH HEIGHTS RISING INTO MID WEEK AS MID TO UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.

OVERALL EXPECT WARMER MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. ONLY REAL CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP WILL COME ON TUES WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM APRIL
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS REACHING UP WELL INTO THE 70S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEDGE WILL HANG ON AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT
WILL BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR SCATTERED SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE
6 KTS. THE GFS IS INTRODUCING STRATUS TOWARD MORNING BUT THINK THIS
WILL BE A STRETCH AND WENT WITH SCATTERED.

FRIDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT. WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS FIRST...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BY 20-21Z...ONE TO THREE HOURS LATER FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE FAIRLY STEADY STRATIFORM
PRECIP WITH LOWER CEILINGS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...GUSTY ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS FRIDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY. VFR
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY 10-15 KNOTS INSHORE BUT
ARE LIKELY AROUND 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE NORTHEAST FETCH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST TO
3-5 FT NEAR SHORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION ARE THE SEAS ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE THERE ARE FETCH
LIMITATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...THEN AS LOW PRESSURE
EVOLVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SWAN OUTPUT APPEARS TOO LOW
CONSIDERING THE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FETCH TODAY...AND HAVE BUMPED
THE OUTPUT UP BY 1 TO 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OUTERMOST WATERS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
VARIABLE WINDS AS TROUGH EXTENDS UP FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE OFF SHORE WATERS. MAY SEE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY BUT AS NEXT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
INCREASE. AS WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT AFTN SEAS MAY DROP NEAR
OR JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE SHOOTING UP ONCE AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH SAT
BEFORE RAPIDLY RISING THROUGH LATE SAT UP TO 7 TO 9 FT. WNA HAS
SEAS PEAKING UP TO 10 FT SUN MORNING AS NORTHERLY WINDS REACH 25
TO 30 KTS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEREFORE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OUT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BACK
AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD SEE A
MODERATE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUES INTO
WED OFF SHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING NEAR SHORE SEAS TO DROP
OUT WHILE OFF SHORE SEAS MAY RISE A BIT. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS TO
DIMINISH THROUGH MON WITH A RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TUES INTO WED IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT HEADING INTO WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/SRP







000
FXUS62 KILM 180802
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
345 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST REACHING OFF
THE COAST BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...TODAY WE WILL TRANSITION FROM DRY CONDITIONS
WITH AN OLD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO A HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR RAINFALL BY TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE AS LOW
PRESSURES TRANSLATES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY TO OVER FL BY
TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE GULF AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING INTO PLAY THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES) THEN ALL AREAS TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE 1 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE KEEPING THE WARM SECTOR OFFSHORE AS
WELL. THE RESULTING COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WEST OF THE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL WILL ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EXITING THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AND SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E-NE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED FARTHER
SOUTH BUT WILL NOT KEEP IT FROM SPREADING RAIN INTO THE CAROLINAS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
KEEP A DECENT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE BEST LIFT
WILL COME THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
BUT MAY SEE SOME DRY AIR GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS LATER IN THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAKENING
LIFT AND SOME DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THE LOW WILL SHIFT
ALMOST DUE EAST FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW BUT BEST LIFT WILL BE
DISPLACED TO THE EAST. THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS AND LINGERING PCP
HEADING INTO SUNDAY BUT WILL KEEP GREATEST QPF EAST. THE STIFF
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO
LOCAL AREA WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCHES FOCUSED MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST SAT MORNING DIMINISHING TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT
EVENING AND DOWN LESS THAN A HALF INCH AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM KEEPS DRY AIR
FURTHER TO THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH GREATEST QPF ON SATURDAY
BUT LINGERING PCP INTO SUNDAY. EXPECTING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT...WITH QPF EVENT TOTALS IN THE 1.0 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S BOTH DAYS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS SOUTH
INTO AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH
MONDAY. A DRIER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE
SKY LEAVING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND CUTOFF
LOW WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK THROUGH
TUES AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE AHEAD
OF PROGRESSING FRONT. THE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY KEEPING
MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...BUT HAVE INCLUDED
INCREASED CHC FOR CONVECTION ON TUES AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN W-NW KEEPING A WARMER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW WITH HEIGHTS RISING INTO MID WEEK AS MID TO UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.

OVERALL EXPECT WARMER MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. ONLY REAL CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP WILL COME ON TUES WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM APRIL
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS REACHING UP WELL INTO THE 70S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEDGE WILL HANG ON AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT
WILL BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR SCATTERED SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE
6 KTS. THE GFS IS INTRODUCING STRATUS TOWARD MORNING BUT THINK THIS
WILL BE A STRETCH AND WENT WITH SCATTERED.

FRIDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT. WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS FIRST...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BY 20-21Z...ONE TO THREE HOURS LATER FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE FAIRLY STEADY STRATIFORM
PRECIP WITH LOWER CEILINGS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...GUSTY ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS FRIDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY. VFR
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...THEN AS LOW PRESSURE
EVOLVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SWAN OUTPUT APPEARS TOO LOW
CONSIDERING THE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FETCH TODAY...AND HAVE BUMPED
THE OUTPUT UP BY 1 TO 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OUTERMOST WATERS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
VARIABLE WINDS AS TROUGH EXTENDS UP FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE OFF SHORE WATERS. MAY SEE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY BUT AS NEXT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
INCREASE. AS WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT AFTN SEAS MAY DROP NEAR
OR JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE SHOOTING UP ONCE AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH SAT
BEFORE RAPIDLY RISING THROUGH LATE SAT UP TO 7 TO 9 FT. WNA HAS
SEAS PEAKING UP TO 10 FT SUN MORNING AS NORTHERLY WINDS REACH 25
TO 30 KTS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEREFORE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OUT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BACK
AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD SEE A
MODERATE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUES INTO
WED OFF SHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING NEAR SHORE SEAS TO DROP
OUT WHILE OFF SHORE SEAS MAY RISE A BIT. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS TO
DIMINISH THROUGH MON WITH A RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TUES INTO WED IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT HEADING INTO WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/SRP













000
FXUS62 KILM 180745
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
345 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST REACHING OFF
THE COAST BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...TODAY WE WILL TRANSITION FROM DRY CONDITIONS
WITH AN OLD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO A HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR RAINFALL BY TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE AS LOW
PRESSURES TRANSLATES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY TO OVER FL BY
TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE GULF AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING INTO PLAY THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES) THEN ALL AREAS TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE 1 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE KEEPING THE WARM SECTOR OFFSHORE AS
WELL. THE RESULTING COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WEST OF THE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL WILL ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EXITING THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AND SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E-NE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED FARTHER
SOUTH BUT WILL NOT KEEP IT FROM SPREADING RAIN INTO THE CAROLINAS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
KEEP A DECENT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE BEST LIFT
WILL COME THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
BUT MAY SEE SOME DRY AIR GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS LATER IN THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAKENING
LIFT AND SOME DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THE LOW WILL SHIFT
ALMOST DUE EAST FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW BUT BEST LIFT WILL BE
DISPLACED TO THE EAST. THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS AND LINGERING PCP
HEADING INTO SUNDAY BUT WILL KEEP GREATEST QPF EAST. THE STIFF
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO
LOCAL AREA WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCHES FOCUSED MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST SAT MORNING DIMINISHING TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT
EVENING AND DOWN LESS THAN A HALF INCH AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM KEEPS DRY AIR
FURTHER TO THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH GREATEST QPF ON SATURDAY
BUT LINGERING PCP INTO SUNDAY. EXPECTING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT...WITH QPF EVENT TOTALS IN THE 1.0 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S BOTH DAYS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP
KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS SOUTH
INTO AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH
MONDAY. A DRIER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE
SKY LEAVING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND CUTOFF
LOW WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK THROUGH
TUES AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE AHEAD
OF PROGRESSING FRONT. THE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY KEEPING
MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...BUT HAVE INCLUDED
INCREASED CHC FOR CONVECTION ON TUES AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN W-NW KEEPING A WARMER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW WITH HEIGHTS RISING INTO MID WEEK AS MID TO UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.

OVERALL EXPECT WARMER MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. ONLY REAL CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP WILL COME ON TUES WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM APRIL
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS REACHING UP WELL INTO THE 70S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEDGE WILL HANG ON AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT
WILL BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR SCATTERED SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE
6 KTS. THE GFS IS INTRODUCING STRATUS TOWARD MORNING BUT THINK THIS
WILL BE A STRETCH AND WENT WITH SCATTERED.

FRIDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT. WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS FIRST...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BY 20-21Z...ONE TO THREE HOURS LATER FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE FAIRLY STEADY STRATIFORM
PRECIP WITH LOWER CEILINGS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...GUSTY ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS FRIDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY. VFR
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...THEN AS LOW PRESSURE
EVOLVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SWAN OUTPUT APPEARS TOO LOW
CONSIDERING THE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FETCH TODAY...AND HAVE BUMPED
THE OUTPUT UP BY 1 TO 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OUTERMOST WATERS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
VARIABLE WINDS AS TROUGH EXTENDS UP FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE OFF SHORE WATERS. MAY SEE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY BUT AS NEXT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
INCREASE. AS WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT AFTN SEAS MAY DROP NEAR
OR JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE SHOOTING UP ONCE AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH SAT
BEFORE RAPIDLY RISING THROUGH LATE SAT UP TO 7 TO 9 FT. WNA HAS
SEAS PEAKING UP TO 10 FT SUN MORNING AS NORTHERLY WINDS REACH 25
TO 30 KTS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEREFORE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OUT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BACK
AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD SEE A
MODERATE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUES INTO
WED OFF SHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING NEAR SHORE SEAS TO DROP
OUT WHILE OFF SHORE SEAS MAY RISE A BIT. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS TO
DIMINISH THROUGH MON WITH A SLIGHT RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS ON TUES
AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS DOWN TO 10 KTS OR LESS ON MON WILL
INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS ON TUES MAINLY POST FROPA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/SRP










000
FXUS62 KILM 180548
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
147 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1105 PM THURSDAY...LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY...THE 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL...TRENDS INDICATE CONTINUED MAINLY THIN CIRRUS HAVING
SPREAD ACROSS THE FA...FROM SW TO NE. A FEW SFC OBS INDICATE MID-
LEVEL AS/AC EXISTS JUST OUTSIDE THE ILM CWA IN CAE AND CHS
FORECAST AREAS. EXPECT THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO PUSH OVERHEAD
OVERNITE...ALONG WITH STRATOCU JUST OFFSHORE BEGINNING TO
PARTIALLY MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT. OVERALL TREND OF INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDINESS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD STILL AOK.
RAIN CHANCES AND POPS HAVE BEEN DEFERRED TO DAYLIGHT
FRIDAY...MAINLY LATER FRI MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS HAVE NEARLY STABILIZED NOW...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SLOW DECREASING TEMP TREND OVERNIGHT UNTIL THICKER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS OVER SPREADS THE AREA AND COUNTERING ANY BRIEF
RAD COOLING THAT OCCURRED EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS REMAIN
ACTIVE...JUST NOT AS ACTIVE LIKE EARLIER DISCUSSED. LOOKING AT 5
MPH OR LESS...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
OVERALL...ACTIVE WIND FIELD TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO
QUICKLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 3:00 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
CAROLINAS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE 850-500 MB LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE SURGED INTO THE LOW-MID 40S AS
OF 18Z. THIS IS A FASTER RECOVERY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TIER THAN
WAS PROGGED BY MOS...SO HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO MIN TEMPS IN THAT AREA. GENERALLY A RANGE OF 43-49 EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED AND
GRADUALLY DEEPENING LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS ON
PLACEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SO ALTHOUGH I HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...WHICH SEEMED MORE SIMILAR. WHICH MODELS ULTIMATELY
VERIFY MAKES A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS FAR AS POPS AND QPF
GOES...WITH THE NAM BEING SIGNIFICANTLY THE DRYER SOLUTION. AS I
HAVE FAVORED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...I AM NOW EXPECTING A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...WITH QPF EVENT TOTALS IN THE 1.0 TO 1.5
INCH RANGE. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT.

COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE BELOW
NORMAL RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S BOTH DAYS. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD
SIDE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM THURSDAY...CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRAVERSING FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY. MODELS AT ODDS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION IS
SPREADING. HOWEVER EVEN THE MORE SUPPRESSED GUIDANCE IMPLIES THAT
COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES AND THE FCST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY HOWEVER THAT
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE TRENDED UPWARDS BOTH WITH RESPECT TO POP
VALUES AND NORTHERN EXTENT. THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD BY
MONDAY PAVING THE WAY FOR A DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE AFTERNOON
WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. BY
TUESDAY THE STILL WEAK BL FLOW TURNS FROM NRLY TO SRLY BOOSTING
TEMPS. AN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT APPEAR SLATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY BUT IT SEEMS TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO YIELD
MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEDGE WILL HANG ON AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT
WILL BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR SCATTERED SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE
6 KTS. THE GFS IS INTRODUCING STRATUS TOWARD MORNING BUT THINK THIS
WILL BE A STRETCH AND WENT WITH SCATTERED.

FRIDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT. WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS FIRST...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BY 20-21Z...ONE TO THREE HOURS LATER FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE FAIRLY STEADY STRATIFORM
PRECIP WITH LOWER CEILINGS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...GUSTY ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS FRIDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY. VFR
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH
BASICALLY MATCHES UP WITH OUR NEIGHBORING WATERS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE 1040+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL YIELD A NE TO ENE WIND DIRECTION. MODELS INDICATE A SFC
COASTAL TROF THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER OVERNIGHT JUST OFFSHORE...
AND ORIENTED NE TO SW. THIS MAY ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS BE A FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT LATER ON
FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
OFF CAPE FEAR...AND OFF CAPE ROMAIN. AN EASTERLY 2 TO 3 FOOT
GROUND SWELL IN THE 9 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD RANGE WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE. HOWEVER...THE NE WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH AVERAGE PERIODS IN THE 5.5 TO 6.5 SECOND RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 3:00 PM THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT BETWEEN A
STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE AND A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND. THE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE GRADIENT AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
A 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS...AND THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS OVER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES
INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL FURTHER
EXTEND THE SCA INTO SATURDAY AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER
DETERIORATE WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL BE PINCHED BY A SLOW MOVING LOW
WHOSE UPPER LOW IS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET STREAM FLOW. THIS
FEATURE PAIRED WITH A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL LEAD TO STRONG WINDS THAT MAY EVEN OCCASIONALLY GUST TO GALE
FORCE ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. ABATING TREND ON MONDAY WILL BE
GRADUAL DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS DROP OFF
MORE SUBSTANTIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT GETS CAUGHT BACK UP IN THE
JET AND ACCELERATES EASTWARD. FLAGS WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED
SOME TIME LATE MONDAY. TUESDAY BRINGS LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BE
BACKING AND THERE WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BACKSWELL FROM THE SYSTEM
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT TO SEA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...DCH/CRM
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL









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