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000
FXUS62 KILM 250721
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
321 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY WITH
THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDERWAY...
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED. THE DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE COLUMN WILL PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED...OWING TO THE
TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE FOG THAT HAS MANAGED TO FORM. ANY PATCHY
FOG WILL  DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OF SUNRISE.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER LESSER DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVE AND
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL EDGE A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT THE CENTER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY.

THE COLUMN WILL BE DRY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...KEEPING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR A HALF INCH OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THERE IS A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 8 KFT.
THUS...EXPECT A SUNNY DAY IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE.

NOCTURNAL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND THIS WILL PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...
COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM WSW TO W AND NW LATE TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL GO TO WORK ON THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WE SHOULD SEE A
QUICK TURN AROUND IN TEMPS THIS MORNING. IN MANY CASES THE DIURNAL
RANGE WILL BE NEAR 30 DEGREES TODAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO COMMONLY
BE IN THE MID 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE SOME
INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WIND REGIME. WE EXPECT THE
SEABREEZE WILL BE MOVING INLAND MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON...CAPPING
TEMPS NEARER TO THE COAST IN THE LOWER 70S. A BETTER MIXED
ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO ELEVATE TEMPS...THUS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SHOULD BE MOST COMMON. AT THE BEACHES...
READINGS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TO TAKE SOME POETIC LICENSE FROM KENNY
CHESNEY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE "NO CLOUDS...NO PRECIP...NO
PROBLEMS"...WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING SUNDAY...THEN EVOLVE TO A LONGWAVE
RIDGE MONDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER MOVING TO JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY DRYING...AND WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TO CREATE DRY AND PRETTY MUCH
CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...AS THICKNESSES RISE AND HIGH
PRESSURE SCOOTS OFFSHORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 80 BOTH
DAYS...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY COLUMN AND WEAK
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
HOWEVER...SO LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
AROUND 50...WITH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND SUNNY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN.

500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND
NORTH THROUGH THE FULL LATITUDE OF THE CONUS...PRODUCING SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DRIVING HIGH THICKNESSES INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL...AS A COLD FRONT DISPLACES IT FROM THE
WEST. TUE/WED WILL BOTH BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING
THE LOW 80S BOTH AFTNS...AND LOWS FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 50S/NEAR
60. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE/WED...MID-LEVELS
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING
THROUGH THE MS VLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY...BUT LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
WILL RAISE POP TO LOW-CHC AS FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE SATURATED...MATCHING THE EXTENDED MOS P-NUMBERS. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
STALL...OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY...SUCH THAT IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE
IF THE DRY AIR CAN WORK BACK IN BEFORE HALLOWEEN EVENING
FESTIVITIES. ATTM IT LOOKS GOOD FOR HALLOWEEN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST
COULD KEEP THE FRONT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT IS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING AS LOWER DEWPOINTS
REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING FOR NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN WINDS ARE VIRTUALLY CALM. THUS...HAVE
ADDED MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...MAINLY BETWEEN 08-12Z. LIFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT KLBT. LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR
MAY SEE S-SW WINDS AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA BREEZE MANAGES TO
DEVELOP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. N TO NW WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO
A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH. WINDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY BACK TO SW AS A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL VEER
WINDS BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT. NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS FROM 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVE TO 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY
REACH 20 KT FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS INTO
THIS EVE...BUILDING UP TO 3 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE
PRIMARILY LIGHT SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMPASS. W/NW WINDS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL REACH
15 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM THE WATERS...BUT
THEREAFTER THE GRADIENT WILL EASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS SPEEDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...AND THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM NW SUNDAY AFTN...TO NE
BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY SW BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
WAVE AMPLITUDES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...BUT
WILL STILL BE ONLY 2-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE
WIND. SUNDAY EVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT 1-2 FT SEAS...WITH
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SW TUE AND
WED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT DRIVING WINDS ONLY TO AROUND
10 KTS. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE MAY OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM
THE SW...THE LIGHT SPEEDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS EVEN AS
A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD
MARINE...RJD/JDW












000
FXUS62 KILM 250523
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
123 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...A MID-UPPER S/W TROF IS DEPICTED BY THE
MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT...TO OFF THE SC/GA COASTS
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. ITS REFLECTION AT THE SFC WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE SAT. MAINLY THIN TO OPAQUE CI AND HIGH AC TO ACCOMPANY
THIS MID TO UPPER S/W TROF.

CURRENT SFC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA ARE RUNNING A GOOD
CATEGORY...POSSIBLY UP TO 2...ABOVE THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT FORECAST. AS A RESULT...THIS UPDATE IS FOCUSED ON USING
CURRENT TRENDS DERIVED FROM HOURLY SFC OBS FROM LATE THIS AFTN UP
TO NOW. MODELS DO DEPICT THE SFC TROF...ALBEIT WEAK...THAT SHOULD
PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE BY OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WILL
APPLY THE WEAK CAA AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS AFTER THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA. THEREFORE...WILL BE LOOKING AT SATURDAYS
LOWS AT OR AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS PRIOR TO THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND MAY EVEN DECOUPLE
FOR SEVERAL HRS UP UNTIL THE SFC TROF PASSAGE. AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...LOOKING AT NW-N 2 TO 4 MPH WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD TO FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DEEP
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY WARM THICKNESSES PROGGED ON
THE MODELS WE SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR ADDING A WEAK
SEABREEZE (BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS) ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE EXCEEDINGLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED
JUST OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AS WILL LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
BOTH PROGRESS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY WHILE
DEEP OCCLUDED SYSTEM SLIDES EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
DIPPING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL START TO SPREAD
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP
LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
GIVE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LIKELY COMING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE.
THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM JUST FINE AND WILL REMAIN AS-
IS. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IMPLIED BY A HIGHER QPF NOW
SEEN IN THE GFS. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS AND
THERE IS A NEED FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST DAYS FEATURING MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS.
COOLER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING AS LOWER DEWPOINTS
REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING FOR NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN WINDS ARE VIRTUALLY CALM. THUS...HAVE
ADDED MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...MAINLY BETWEEN 08-12Z. LIFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT KLBT. LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR
MAY SEE S-SW WINDS AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA BREEZE MANAGES TO
DEVELOP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF. AHEAD OF THIS
SFC TROF...W-NW WINDS MAY DROP TO LESS THAN 5 KT. THIS SFC TROF
PASSAGE TO OCCUR WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE SATURDAY. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT WILL YIELD NW-N WINDS AROUND 10 KT...WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLED VERY WELL BY GUIDANCE
ESPECIALLY WITH WAVEWATCH3 DURING THE PAST 24+ HRS. PARTICULARLY
THE 1-2+ FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10+ SECOND PERIODS.
THIS WAS DEFINITELY FELT ACROSS THE ILM WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THESE NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE
SURF BREAKS WERE OBSERVED AT 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS PRODUCED A MODERATE
RIP CURRENT RISK FOR BEACHES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH ONLY A SMALL 9-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PLUS SMALL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES AWAY FROM SHORE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE GENERALLY
MINOR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
VEERING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE
DAY IF NOT BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OFF THE COAST. AS THE WIND SPEED REMAINS CAPPED AT 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SWELL ENERGY SEAS
WILL REMAIN AT 2 FT OR LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR/RJD







000
FXUS62 KILM 250307
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1107 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...A MID-UPPER S/W TROF IS DEPICTED BY THE
MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT...TO OFF THE SC/GA COASTS
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. ITS REFLECTION AT THE SFC WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE SAT. MAINLY THIN TO OPAQUE CI AND HIGH AC TO ACCOMPANY
THIS MID TO UPPER S/W TROF.

CURRENT SFC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA ARE RUNNING A GOOD
CATEGORY...POSSIBLY UP TO 2...ABOVE THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT FORECAST. AS A RESULT...THIS UPDATE IS FOCUSED ON USING
CURRENT TRENDS DERIVED FROM HOURLY SFC OBS FROM LATE THIS AFTN UP
TO NOW. MODELS DO DEPICT THE SFC TROF...ALBEIT WEAK...THAT SHOULD
PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE BY OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WILL
APPLY THE WEAK CAA AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS AFTER THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA. THEREFORE...WILL BE LOOKING AT SATURDAYS
LOWS AT OR AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS PRIOR TO THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND MAY EVEN DECOUPLE
FOR SEVERAL HRS UP UNTIL THE SFC TROF PASSAGE. AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...LOOKING AT NW-N 2 TO 4 MPH WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD TO FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DEEP
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY WARM THICKNESSES PROGGED ON
THE MODELS WE SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR ADDING A WEAK
SEABREEZE (BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS) ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE EXCEEDINGLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED
JUST OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AS WILL LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
BOTH PROGRESS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY WHILE
DEEP OCCLUDED SYSTEM SLIDES EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
DIPPING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL START TO SPREAD
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP
LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
GIVE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LIKELY COMING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE.
THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM JUST FINE AND WILL REMAIN AS-
IS. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IMPLIED BY A HIGHER QPF NOW
SEEN IN THE GFS. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS AND
THERE IS A NEED FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST DAYS FEATURING MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS.
COOLER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT NO FOG IS ANTICIPATED
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ONCE THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY SAT MORNING...CIRRUS COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH AND SKC WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT N-NW WINDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...REMAINING AOB 8 KT.
COULD SEE A MORE S-SW WIND AT KCRE/KMYR AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF. AHEAD OF THIS
SFC TROF...W-NW WINDS MAY DROP TO LESS THAN 5 KT. THIS SFC TROF
PASSAGE TO OCCUR WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE SATURDAY. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT WILL YIELD NW-N WINDS AROUND 10 KT...WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLED VERY WELL BY GUIDANCE
ESPECIALLY WITH WAVEWATCH3 DURING THE PAST 24+ HRS. PARTICULARLY
THE 1-2+ FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10+ SECOND PERIODS.
THIS WAS DEFINITELY FELT ACROSS THE ILM WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THESE NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE
SURF BREAKS WERE OBSERVED AT 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS PRODUCED A MODERATE
RIP CURRENT RISK FOR BEACHES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH ONLY A SMALL 9-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PLUS SMALL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES AWAY FROM SHORE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE GENERALLY
MINOR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL VEERING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE DAY IF NOT
BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF
THE COAST. AS THE WIND SPEED REMAINS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SWELL ENERGY SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2
FT OR LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 250043
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
843 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...A MID-UPPER S/W TROF IS DEPICTED  BY THE
MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT...TO OFF THE SC/GA COASTS
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. ITS REFLECTION AT THE SFC WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE SAT. MAINLY THIN TO OPAQUE CI AND HIGH AC TO ACCOMPANY
THIS MID TO UPPER S/W TROF.

CURRENT SFC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA ARE RUNNING A GOOD
CATEGORY...POSSIBLY UP TO 2...ABOVE THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT FORECAST. AS A RESULT...THIS UPDATE IS FOCUSED ON USING
CURRENT TRENDS DERIVED FROM HOURLY SFC OBS FROM LATE THIS AFTN UP
TO NOW. MODELS DO DEPICT THE SFC TROF...ALBEIT WEAK...THAT SHOULD
PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE BY OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WILL
APPLY THE WEAK CAA AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS AFTER THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA. THEREFORE...WILL BE LOOKING AT SATURDAYS
LOWS AT OR AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS PRIOR TO THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND MAY EVEN DECOUPLE
FOR SEVERAL HRS UP UNTIL THE SFC TROF PASSAGE. AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...LOOKING AT NW-N 2 TO 4 MPH WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME MORE EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CLOUDS
ABATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH NEAR
40 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IF THE CLOUDS EXIT EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD TO FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DEEP
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY WARM THICKNESSES PROGGED ON
THE MODELS WE SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR ADDING A WEAK
SEABREEZE (BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS) ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE EXCEEDINGLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AS WILL LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BOTH
PROGRESS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY WHILE DEEP
OCCLUDED SYSTEM SLIDES EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK DIPPING
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL START TO SPREAD CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY COMING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UNIMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SEEM JUST FINE AND WILL REMAIN AS-IS. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE
THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
IMPLIED BY A HIGHER QPF NOW SEEN IN THE GFS. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE
IF THIS TREND HOLDS AND THERE IS A NEED FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST DAYS FEATURING MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT NO FOG IS ANTICIPATED
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ONCE THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY SAT MORNING...CIRRUS COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH AND SKC WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT N-NW WINDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...REMAINING AOB 8 KT.
COULD SEE A MORE S-SW WIND AT KCRE/KMYR AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 AM FRIDAY...THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF. AHEAD OF THIS
SFC TROF...W-NW WINDS MAY DROP TO LESS THAN 5 KT. THIS SFC TROF
PASSAGE TO OCCUR WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE SATURDAY. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT WILL YIELD NW-N WINDS AROUND 10 KT...WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLED VERY WELL BY GUIDANCE
...ESPECIALLY WITH WAVEWATCH3 DURING THE PAST 24+ HRS. PARTICULARLY
THE 1-2+ FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10+ SECOND PERIODS.
THIS WAS DEFINITELY FELT ACROSS THE ILM WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THESE NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SURF
BREAKS WERE OBSERVED AT 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS PRODUCED A MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK FOR BEACHES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THE BAHAMAS
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM A WEAK SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING
THEN NORTHERLY AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH ONLY A SMALL 9-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PLUS SMALL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES AWAY FROM SHORE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE GENERALLY MINOR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL VEERING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE DAY IF NOT
BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF
THE COAST. AS THE WIND SPEED REMAINS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SWELL ENERGY SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2
FT OR LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/SRP
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 250033
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
833 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...A MID-UPPER S/W TROF IS DEPICTED  BY THE
MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT...TO OFF THE SC/GA COASTS
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. ITS REFLECTION AT THE SFC WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE SAT. MAINLY THIN TO OPAQUE CI AND HIGH AC TO ACCOMPANY
THIS MID TO UPPER S/W TROF.

CURRENT SFC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA ARE RUNNING A GOOD
CATEGORY...POSSIBLY UP TO 2...ABOVE THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT FORECAST. AS A RESULT...THIS UPDATE IS FOCUSED ON USING
CURRENT TRENDS DERIVED FROM HOURLY SFC OBS FROM LATE THIS AFTN UP
TO NOW. MODELS DO DEPICT THE SFC TROF...ALBEIT WEAK...THAT SHOULD
PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE BY OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WILL
APPLY THE WEAK CAA AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS AFTER THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA. THEREFORE...WILL BE LOOKING AT SATURDAYS
LOWS AT OR AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS PRIOR TO THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND MAY EVEN DECOUPLE
FOR SEVERAL HRS UP UNTIL THE SFC TROF PASSAGE. AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...LOOKING AT NW-N 2 TO 4 MPH WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME MORE EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CLOUDS
ABATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH NEAR
40 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IF THE CLOUDS EXIT EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD TO FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DEEP
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY WARM THICKNESSES PROGGED ON
THE MODELS WE SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR ADDING A WEAK
SEABREEZE (BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS) ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE EXCEEDINGLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AS WILL LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BOTH
PROGRESS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY WHILE DEEP
OCCLUDED SYSTEM SLIDES EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK DIPPING
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL START TO SPREAD CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY COMING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UNIMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SEEM JUST FINE AND WILL REMAIN AS-IS. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE
THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
IMPLIED BY A HIGHER QPF NOW SEEN IN THE GFS. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE
IF THIS TREND HOLDS AND THERE IS A NEED FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST DAYS FEATURING MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT NO FOG IS ANTICIPATED
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ONCE THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY SAT MORNING...CIRRUS COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH AND SKC WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT N-NW WINDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...REMAINING AOB 8 KT.
COULD SEE A MORE S-SW WIND AT KCRE/KMYR AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THE BAHAMAS
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM A WEAK SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING
THEN NORTHERLY AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH ONLY A SMALL 9-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PLUS SMALL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES AWAY FROM SHORE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE GENERALLY MINOR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL VEERING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE DAY IF NOT
BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF
THE COAST. AS THE WIND SPEED REMAINS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SWELL ENERGY SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2
FT OR LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/SRP
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 242322
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
722 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME MORE EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CLOUDS
ABATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH NEAR
40 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IF THE CLOUDS EXIT EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD TO FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DEEP
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY WARM THICKNESSES PROGGED ON
THE MODELS WE SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR ADDING A WEAK
SEABREEZE (BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS) ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE EXCEEDINGLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AS WILL LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BOTH
PROGRESS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY WHILE DEEP
OCCLUDED SYSTEM SLIDES EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK DIPPING
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL START TO SPREAD CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY COMING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UNIMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SEEM JUST FINE AND WILL REMAIN AS-IS. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE
THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
IMPLIED BY A HIGHER QPF NOW SEEN IN THE GFS. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE
IF THIS TREND HOLDS AND THERE IS A NEED FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST DAYS FEATURING MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT NO FOG IS ANTICIPATED
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ONCE THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY SAT MORNING...CIRRUS COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH AND SKC WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT N-NW WINDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...REMAINING AOB 8 KT.
COULD SEE A MORE S-SW WIND AT KCRE/KMYR AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THE BAHAMAS
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM A WEAK SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING
THEN NORTHERLY AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH ONLY A SMALL 9-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PLUS SMALL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES AWAY FROM SHORE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE GENERALLY MINOR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL VEERING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE DAY IF NOT
BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF
THE COAST. AS THE WIND SPEED REMAINS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SWELL ENERGY SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2
FT OR LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR









000
FXUS62 KILM 241832
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
232 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME MORE EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CLOUDS
ABATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH NEAR
40 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IF THE CLOUDS EXIT EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD TO FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DEEP
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY WARM THICKNESSES PROGGED ON
THE MODELS WE SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR ADDING A WEAK
SEABREEZE (BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS) ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE EXCEEDINGLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AS WILL LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BOTH
PROGRESS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY WHILE DEEP
OCCLUDED SYSTEM SLIDES EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK DIPPING
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL START TO SPREAD CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY COMING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UNIMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SEEM JUST FINE AND WILL REMAIN AS-IS. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE
THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
IMPLIED BY A HIGHER QPF NOW SEEN IN THE GFS. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE
IF THIS TREND HOLDS AND THERE IS A NEED FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST DAYS FEATURING MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE LIGHT AND DIRECTIONS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN...THUS VRB05KT
IS INDICATED IN TAFS. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH PASSES. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY CALM THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
TERMINALS. THE AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY ATTM TO SUPPORT FOG OVERNIGHT
DESPITE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AFTER SUNRISE
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THE BAHAMAS
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM A WEAK SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING
THEN NORTHERLY AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH ONLY A SMALL 9-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PLUS SMALL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES AWAY FROM SHORE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE GENERALLY MINOR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL VEERING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE DAY IF NOT
BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF
THE COAST. AS THE WIND SPEED REMAINS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SWELL ENERGY SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2
FT OR LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR






000
FXUS62 KILM 241800
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND
THEN OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME MORE EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CLOUDS
ABATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH NEAR
40 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IF THE CLOUDS EXIT EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF
THE COAST SAT MORNING WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. ANY CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD AS POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE SUNNY
SKIES. COMBINATION OF DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON
PERIPHERY OF EXPANDING 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK
START TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST UNDER 5H RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMO...WITH HIGHS LIKELY WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE/WED. DEEP DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LIMITING CLOUD COVER AND KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEAR ZERO. RIDGING ALOFT BREAKS DOWN/SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THU. FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH CHANCES
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP IS ADEQUATE
GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DAY 7. TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH FROPA
ANTICIPATED EARLY FRI MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE LIGHT AND DIRECTIONS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN...THUS VRB05KT
IS INDICATED IN TAFS. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH PASSES. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY CALM THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
TERMINALS. THE AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY ATTM TO SUPPORT FOG OVERNIGHT
DESPITE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AFTER SUNRISE
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THE BAHAMAS
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM A WEAK SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING
THEN NORTHERLY AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST SAT MAY INDUCE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.
HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL BE SAT WITH 10 TO 15 KT POSSIBLE...DECREASING TO
10 KT OR LESS ON SUN. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MON MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST LATER MON INTO TUE WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MON WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED TUE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/SRP







000
FXUS62 KILM 241350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND
THEN OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM FRIDAY...LARGE MID/UPPER LOW PERSISTS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
CURRENT AIR-MASS IS MOISTURE STARVED...THUS OTHER THAN SOME PASSING
CLOUDS ALOFT IT/S MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...A VEIL OF CIRROSTRATUS COVERS THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND AT TIMES ONLY DIM SUNSHINE WILL BE VISIBLE THROUGH THE
CLOUD COVER TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD.
EXCEPT FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ABOUT 20 KFT...THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE 5-15 KFT LAYER. RELATED FORCING WITH THIS
RATHER POTENT FEATURE WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS
AND THUS...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WARM...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE SAME
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOSER TO
THE COAST...MAY SERVE TO RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF
THE COAST SAT MORNING WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. ANY CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD AS POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE SUNNY
SKIES. COMBINATION OF DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON
PERIPHERY OF EXPANDING 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK
START TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST UNDER 5H RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMO...WITH HIGHS LIKELY WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE/WED. DEEP DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LIMITING CLOUD COVER AND KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEAR ZERO. RIDGING ALOFT BREAKS DOWN/SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THU. FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH CHANCES
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP IS ADEQUATE
GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DAY 7. TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH FROPA
ANTICIPATED EARLY FRI MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LGT
NORTHERLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND LGT/VRBL AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE THE ENTIRE
VALID PERIOD. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THIS EVNG/OVERNIGHT AS
THE TROUGH PASSES AS WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL AT ALL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM FRIDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT...PRIMARILY FROM LONG PERIOD SWELLS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INCREASINGLY SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS
OF 10 KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE N OR NW ALTHOUGH A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE MAY
BRING WINDS ONSHORE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
BACKSWELL FROM STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED COMPARED TO THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 2
TO 3 FT...BUT ONLY ABOUT A FOOT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER TO WINYAH BAY DUE TO
SHADOWING. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST SAT MAY INDUCE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.
HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL BE SAT WITH 10 TO 15 KT POSSIBLE...DECREASING TO
10 KT OR LESS ON SUN. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MON MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST LATER MON INTO TUE WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MON WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED TUE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 241131
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
731 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND
THEN OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...A VEIL OF CIRROSTRATUS COVERS THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND AT TIMES ONLY DIM SUNSHINE WILL BE VISIBLE THROUGH THE
CLOUD COVER TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD.
EXCEPT FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ABOUT 20 KFT...THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE 5-15 KFT LAYER. RELATED FORCING WITH THIS
RATHER POTENT FEATURE WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS
AND THUS...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WARM...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE SAME
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOSER TO
THE COAST...MAY SERVE TO RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF
THE COAST SAT MORNING WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. ANY CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD AS POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE SUNNY
SKIES. COMBINATION OF DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON
PERIPHERY OF EXPANDING 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK
START TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST UNDER 5H RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMO...WITH HIGHS LIKELY WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE/WED. DEEP DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LIMITING CLOUD COVER AND KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEAR ZERO. RIDGING ALOFT BREAKS DOWN/SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THU. FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH CHANCES
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP IS ADEQUATE
GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DAY 7. TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH FROPA
ANTICIPATED EARLY FRI MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LGT
NORTHERLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND LGT/VRBL AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE THE ENTIRE
VALID PERIOD. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THIS EVNG/OVERNIGHT AS
THE TROUGH PASSES AS WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL AT ALL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INCREASINGLY SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS
OF 10 KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE N OR NW ALTHOUGH A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE MAY
BRING WINDS ONSHORE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
BACKSWELL FROM STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED COMPARED TO THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 2
TO 3 FT...BUT ONLY ABOUT A FOOT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER TO WINYAH BAY DUE TO
SHADOWING. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST SAT MAY INDUCE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.
HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL BE SAT WITH 10 TO 15 KT POSSIBLE...DECREASING TO
10 KT OR LESS ON SUN. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MON MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST LATER MON INTO TUE WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MON WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED TUE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 241038
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
638 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND
THEN OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...A VEIL OF CIRROSTRATUS COVERS THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND AT TIMES ONLY DIM SUNSHINE WILL BE VISIBLE THROUGH THE
CLOUD COVER TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD.
EXCEPT FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ABOUT 20 KFT...THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE 5-15 KFT LAYER. RELATED FORCING WITH THIS
RATHER POTENT FEATURE WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS
AND THUS...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WARM...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE SAME
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOSER TO
THE COAST...MAY SERVE TO RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF
THE COAST SAT MORNING WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. ANY CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD AS POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE SUNNY
SKIES. COMBINATION OF DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON
PERIPHERY OF EXPANDING 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK
START TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST UNDER 5H RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMO...WITH HIGHS LIKELY WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE/WED. DEEP DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LIMITING CLOUD COVER AND KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEAR ZERO. RIDGING ALOFT BREAKS DOWN/SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THU. FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH CHANCES
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP IS ADEQUATE
GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DAY 7. TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH FROPA
ANTICIPATED EARLY FRI MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN CIRRUS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY FOG
FORMATION. EXPECT MORE CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD LATER TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...
N-NW AOB 5 KTS THIS MORNING BECOMING VRBL THIS AFTERNOON AND CALM
AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INCREASINGLY SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS
OF 10 KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE N OR NW ALTHOUGH A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE MAY
BRING WINDS ONSHORE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
BACKSWELL FROM STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED COMPARED TO THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 2
TO 3 FT...BUT ONLY ABOUT A FOOT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER TO WINYAH BAY DUE TO
SHADOWING. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST SAT MAY INDUCE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.
HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL BE SAT WITH 10 TO 15 KT POSSIBLE...DECREASING TO
10 KT OR LESS ON SUN. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MON MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST LATER MON INTO TUE WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MON WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED TUE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/RJD







000
FXUS62 KILM 240707
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
307 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO OUR WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL APPROACH
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND AT
TIMES ONLY VERY DIM SUNSHINE WILL BE VISIBLE THROUGH THE CLOUD
COVER TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD. EXCEPT FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ABOUT 20 KFT...THE COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY... ESPECIALLY IN THE 5-15 KFT LAYER. RELATED
FORCING WITH THIS RATHER POTENT FEATURE WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE UPPER LEVELS AND THUS...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION.
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WARM...THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE POTENTIAL
MAXIMUMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE
SAME CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...MAY SERVE TO RETARD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S
WITH LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF
THE COAST SAT MORNING WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. ANY CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD AS POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE SUNNY
SKIES. COMBINATION OF DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON
PERIPHERY OF EXPANDING 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK
START TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST UNDER 5H RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMO...WITH HIGHS LIKELY WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE/WED. DEEP DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LIMITING CLOUD COVER AND KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEAR ZERO. RIDGING ALOFT BREAKS DOWN/SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THU. FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH CHANCES
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP IS ADEQUATE
GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DAY 7. TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH FROPA
ANTICIPATED EARLY FRI MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN CIRRUS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY FOG
FORMATION. EXPECT MORE CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD LATER TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...
N-NW AOB 5 KTS THIS MORNING BECOMING VRBL THIS AFTERNOON AND CALM
AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INCREASINGLY SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS
OF 10 KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE N OR NW ALTHOUGH A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE MAY
BRING WINDS ONSHORE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
BACKSWELL FROM STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP
SEAS ELEVATED COMPARED TO THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 2 TO 3 FT...BUT ONLY ABOUT A FOOT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER TO WINYAH BAY
DUE TO SHADOWING. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST SAT MAY INDUCE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.
HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL BE SAT WITH 10 TO 15 KT POSSIBLE...DECREASING TO
10 KT OR LESS ON SUN. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MON MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST LATER MON INTO TUE WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MON WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED TUE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/RJD








000
FXUS62 KILM 240527
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
127 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. HOURLY SFC
TEMPS/DEWPTS MASSAGED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. OVERALL...NO
CATEGORICAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. SFC WINDS
TO REMAIN ACTIVE THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME DECOUPLING LIKELY
ESPECIALLY INLAND ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA WHERE THE
SFC PG IS MORE RELAXED...AND WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC BECOME NW-N
10 KT OR LESS. THIS ILLUSTRATED BY THE LATEST NAM/GFS SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN/GRADIENT PROGS AND MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE 400MB
LEVEL AND HIER AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...INDICATIVE OF THIN
POSSIBLY OPAQUE CI/CS...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FA. LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACHING
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE JUST UPSTREAM FROM THE ILM CWA. CLOUDS NOT
WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE CURRENT MIN TEMP FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
AS OFFSHORE WINDS PREVENT ANY LOW OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE IMPRESSIVE
DISTURBANCE WITH STRONGER NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...UP TO 80 KNOTS AT 300 MB. THIS SYSTEM MAY
EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT THE REMNANTS OF OLD TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...BUT MUCH TOO FAR EAST
FOR ANY IMPACT LOCALLY.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER PARTICULARLY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS. ANY CHANGES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE ALL MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
GORGEOUS FALL WEATHER LOCALLY. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING A CONTINUED BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AS RIDGING
BLOOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...AND THEN AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BENEATH THIS RIDGE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFFSHORE...SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL
LONG-TERM WITH A WARMING TREND FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY...TO
WELL ABOVE BY TUE/WED...AND THIS WARMING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CLOUD COVER...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND LIKELY DROP
SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS LIMITED AND THE COLUMN REMAINS
PRETTY DRY...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS...PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...THURSDAY WILL
OFFER THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN CIRRUS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY FOG
FORMATION. EXPECT MORE CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD LATER TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...
N-NW AOB 5 KTS THIS MORNING BECOMING VRBL THIS AFTERNOON AND CALM
AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM THURSDAY...LOOKING AT NW-NNW WINDS AT 10 TO
OCCASIONALLY 15 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. STILL SOME 20-25 KT
WINDS PROGGED BY THE MODELS JUST OFF THE DECK NORTH OF CAPE FEAR
THRU THIS EVENING. THE WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WITH 2 TO 3 FT BEING FCST...AND THIS MAY EVEN BE OVERDONE
BY SWAN GIVEN THE LACK OF A FETCH DUE TO THIS OFFSHORE WIND
TRAJECTORY. AND...THE LACK OF A CONSISTENT GROUND SWELL.
ALTHOUGH...AN IDENTIFIABLE 1 FT OR LESS EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT
10+ SECOND PERIODS CONTINUES TO BE IDENTIFIED BY THE LOCAL BUOYS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
WILL MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON WEATHER DOWN HERE AT THE SURFACE. WITH LARGELY OFFSHORE
WINDS AND ONLY A TINY 9-SECOND SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS KEEPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE
NEARLY EVERY COMPASS DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE FROM THE W/NW...BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO THE E/NE...AND THEN VEERING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING
TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION.
THANKS TO THESE LIGHT WINDS...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-2
FT...WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR/RJD









000
FXUS62 KILM 240147
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
947 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. HOURLY SFC
TEMPS/DEWPTS MASSAGED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. OVERALL...NO
CATEGORICAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. SFC WINDS
TO REMAIN ACTIVE THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME DECOUPLING LIKELY
ESPECIALLY INLAND ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA WHERE THE
SFC PG IS MORE RELAXED...AND WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC BECOME NW-N
10 KT OR LESS. THIS ILLUSTRATED BY THE LATEST NAM/GFS SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN/GRADIENT PROGS AND MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE 400MB
LEVEL AND HIER AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...INDICATIVE OF THIN
POSSIBLY OPAQUE CI/CS...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FA. LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACHING
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE JUST UPSTREAM FROM THE ILM CWA. CLOUDS NOT
WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE CURRENT MIN TEMP FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
AS OFFSHORE WINDS PREVENT ANY LOW OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE IMPRESSIVE
DISTURBANCE WITH STRONGER NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...UP TO 80 KNOTS AT 300 MB. THIS SYSTEM MAY
EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT THE REMNANTS OF OLD TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...BUT MUCH TOO FAR EAST
FOR ANY IMPACT LOCALLY.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER PARTICULARLY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS. ANY CHANGES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE ALL MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
GORGEOUS FALL WEATHER LOCALLY. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING A CONTINUED BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AS RIDGING
BLOOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...AND THEN AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BENEATH THIS RIDGE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFFSHORE...SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL
LONG-TERM WITH A WARMING TREND FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY...TO
WELL ABOVE BY TUE/WED...AND THIS WARMING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CLOUD COVER...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND LIKELY DROP
SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS LIMITED AND THE COLUMN REMAINS
PRETTY DRY...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS...PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...THURSDAY WILL
OFFER THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KT...BECOMING NORTH EARLY
FRI MORNING. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY
FRI...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS BUT NO THREAT OF PCPN GIVEN
THE EXTREMELY DRY COLUMN. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VRB DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM THURSDAY...LOOKING AT NW-NNW WINDS AT 10 TO
OCCASIONALLY 15 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. STILL SOME 20-25 KT
WINDS PROGGED BY THE MODELS JUST OFF THE DECK NORTH OF CAPE FEAR
THRU THIS EVENING. THE WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WITH 2 TO 3 FT BEING FCST...AND THIS MAY EVEN BE OVERDONE
BY SWAN GIVEN THE LACK OF A FETCH DUE TO THIS OFFSHORE WIND
TRAJECTORY. AND...THE LACK OF A CONSISTENT GROUND SWELL.
ALTHOUGH...AN IDENTIFIABLE 1 FT OR LESS EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT
10+ SECOND PERIODS CONTINUES TO BE IDENTIFIED BY THE LOCAL BUOYS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
WILL MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON WEATHER DOWN HERE AT THE SURFACE. WITH LARGELY OFFSHORE
WINDS AND ONLY A TINY 9-SECOND SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS KEEPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE
NEARLY EVERY COMPASS DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE FROM THE W/NW...BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO THE E/NE...AND THEN VEERING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING
TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION.
THANKS TO THESE LIGHT WINDS...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-2
FT...WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 240147
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
947 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. HOURLY SFC
TEMPS/DEWPTS MASSAGED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. OVERALL...NO
CATEGORICAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. SFC WINDS
TO REMAIN ACTIVE THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME DECOUPLING LIKELY
ESPECIALLY INLAND ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA WHERE THE
SFC PG IS MORE RELAXED...AND WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC BECOME NW-N
10 KT OR LESS. THIS ILLUSTRATED BY THE LATEST NAM/GFS SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN/GRADIENT PROGS AND MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE 400MB
LEVEL AND HIER AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...INDICATIVE OF THIN
POSSIBLY OPAQUE CI/CS...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FA. LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACHING
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE JUST UPSTREAM FROM THE ILM CWA. CLOUDS NOT
WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE CURRENT MIN TEMP FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
AS OFFSHORE WINDS PREVENT ANY LOW OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE IMPRESSIVE
DISTURBANCE WITH STRONGER NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...UP TO 80 KNOTS AT 300 MB. THIS SYSTEM MAY
EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT THE REMNANTS OF OLD TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...BUT MUCH TOO FAR EAST
FOR ANY IMPACT LOCALLY.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER PARTICULARLY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS. ANY CHANGES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE ALL MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
GORGEOUS FALL WEATHER LOCALLY. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING A CONTINUED BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AS RIDGING
BLOOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...AND THEN AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BENEATH THIS RIDGE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFFSHORE...SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL
LONG-TERM WITH A WARMING TREND FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY...TO
WELL ABOVE BY TUE/WED...AND THIS WARMING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CLOUD COVER...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND LIKELY DROP
SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS LIMITED AND THE COLUMN REMAINS
PRETTY DRY...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS...PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...THURSDAY WILL
OFFER THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KT...BECOMING NORTH EARLY
FRI MORNING. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY
FRI...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS BUT NO THREAT OF PCPN GIVEN
THE EXTREMELY DRY COLUMN. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VRB DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM THURSDAY...LOOKING AT NW-NNW WINDS AT 10 TO
OCCASIONALLY 15 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. STILL SOME 20-25 KT
WINDS PROGGED BY THE MODELS JUST OFF THE DECK NORTH OF CAPE FEAR
THRU THIS EVENING. THE WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WITH 2 TO 3 FT BEING FCST...AND THIS MAY EVEN BE OVERDONE
BY SWAN GIVEN THE LACK OF A FETCH DUE TO THIS OFFSHORE WIND
TRAJECTORY. AND...THE LACK OF A CONSISTENT GROUND SWELL.
ALTHOUGH...AN IDENTIFIABLE 1 FT OR LESS EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT
10+ SECOND PERIODS CONTINUES TO BE IDENTIFIED BY THE LOCAL BUOYS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
WILL MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON WEATHER DOWN HERE AT THE SURFACE. WITH LARGELY OFFSHORE
WINDS AND ONLY A TINY 9-SECOND SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS KEEPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE
NEARLY EVERY COMPASS DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE FROM THE W/NW...BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO THE E/NE...AND THEN VEERING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING
TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION.
THANKS TO THESE LIGHT WINDS...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-2
FT...WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 232347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
747 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. MASSAGED HOURLY
SFC TEMPS/DEWPTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. OVERALL...NO CATEGORICAL
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. SFC WINDS TO REMAIN
ACTIVE ATLEAST THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME DECOUPLING LIKELY
ESPECIALLY INLAND ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA WHERE THE
SFC PG IS MORE RELAXED AND WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC BECOME NW-N 10
KT OR LESS. THIS VIA NAM/GFS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN/GRADIENT PROGS
AND MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FA. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE 400MB AND HIER LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...INDICATIVE OF THIN POSSIBLY OPAQUE CI/CS HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..........................................
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON IN DEEP NW FLOW AROUND FRONT END OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN FROM THE N-NW. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF DEEP
LOW OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH TONIGHT. PCP WATER LEVELS BASICALLY BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BIT OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAM OVER AREA IN W-SW FLOW AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE BY MORNING.

THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
CLOSER OVERHEAD. THEREFORE ANY LINGERING GUSTY NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DECOUPLE AS SUN SETS THIS EVENING LEAVING NEAR CALM WINDS BY LATE
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MODIFY AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER BUT OVERALL TEMPS UP CLOSE TO 70 THIS AFTN
UNDER BRIGHT OCTOBER SUNSHINE...WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING UNDER
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN TO
4O TO 45 DEGREES MOST PLACES. ANY CIRRUS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPS MUCH AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
AS OFFSHORE WINDS PREVENT ANY LOW OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE IMPRESSIVE
DISTURBANCE WITH STRONGER NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...UP TO 80 KNOTS AT 300 MB. THIS SYSTEM MAY
EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT THE REMNANTS OF OLD TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...BUT MUCH TOO FAR EAST
FOR ANY IMPACT LOCALLY.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER PARTICULARLY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS. ANY CHANGES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE ALL MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
GORGEOUS FALL WEATHER LOCALLY. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING A CONTINUED BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AS RIDGING
BLOOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...AND THEN AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BENEATH THIS RIDGE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFFSHORE...SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL
LONG-TERM WITH A WARMING TREND FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY...TO
WELL ABOVE BY TUE/WED...AND THIS WARMING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CLOUD COVER...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND LIKELY DROP
SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS LIMITED AND THE COLUMN REMAINS
PRETTY DRY...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS...PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...THURSDAY WILL
OFFER THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KT...BECOMING NORTH EARLY
FRI MORNING. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY
FRI...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS BUT NO THREAT OF PCPN GIVEN
THE EXTREMELY DRY COLUMN. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VRB DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM THURSDAY...LOOKING AT NW-NNW WINDS AT 10 TO
OCCASIONALLY 15 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. STILL SOME 20-25 KT
WINDS PROGGED JUST OFF THE DECK NORTH OF CAPE FEAR THRU THIS
EVENING. THE WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WITH 2
TO 3 FT BEING FCST...AND THIS MAY EVEN BE OVERDONE. AN
IDENTIFIABLE 1 FT OR LESS EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 10+ SECOND
PERIODS REMAINS PRESENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND
HIGHER GUSTS OVER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL SEE SOME GUSTIER WINDS IN WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT AS COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER WATERS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS...HIGHEST IN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND IN DIMINISHING NW-N OFF SHORE FLOW. AS WINDS
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD UP TO 10 SEC
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVER THE THE SHORTER PERIOD
WIND WAVES.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
WILL MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON WEATHER DOWN HERE AT THE SURFACE. WITH LARGELY OFFSHORE
WINDS AND ONLY A TINY 9-SECOND SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS KEEPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE
NEARLY EVERY COMPASS DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE FROM THE W/NW...BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO THE E/NE...AND THEN VEERING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING
TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION.
THANKS TO THESE LIGHT WINDS...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-2
FT...WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 232324
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
724 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON IN DEEP NW FLOW AROUND FRONT END OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN FROM THE N-NW. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF DEEP
LOW OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH TONIGHT. PCP WATER LEVELS BASICALLY BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BIT OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAM OVER AREA IN W-SW FLOW AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE BY MORNING.

THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
CLOSER OVERHEAD. THEREFORE ANY LINGERING GUSTY NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DECOUPLE AS SUN SETS THIS EVENING LEAVING NEAR CALM WINDS BY LATE
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MODIFY AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER BUT OVERALL TEMPS UP CLOSE TO 70 THIS AFTN
UNDER BRIGHT OCTOBER SUNSHINE...WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING UNDER
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN TO
4O TO 45 DEGREES MOST PLACES. ANY CIRRUS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPS MUCH AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
AS OFFSHORE WINDS PREVENT ANY LOW OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE IMPRESSIVE
DISTURBANCE WITH STRONGER NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...UP TO 80 KNOTS AT 300 MB. THIS SYSTEM MAY
EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT THE REMNANTS OF OLD TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...BUT MUCH TOO FAR EAST
FOR ANY IMPACT LOCALLY.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER PARTICULARLY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS. ANY CHANGES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE ALL MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
GORGEOUS FALL WEATHER LOCALLY. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING A CONTINUED BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AS RIDGING
BLOOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...AND THEN AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BENEATH THIS RIDGE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFFSHORE...SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL
LONG-TERM WITH A WARMING TREND FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY...TO
WELL ABOVE BY TUE/WED...AND THIS WARMING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CLOUD COVER...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND LIKELY DROP
SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS LIMITED AND THE COLUMN REMAINS
PRETTY DRY...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS...PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...THURSDAY WILL
OFFER THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KT...BECOMING NORTH EARLY
FRI MORNING. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY
FRI...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS BUT NO THREAT OF PCPN GIVEN
THE EXTREMELY DRY COLUMN. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VRB DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND
HIGHER GUSTS OVER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL SEE SOME GUSTIER WINDS IN WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT AS COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER WATERS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS...HIGHEST IN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND IN DIMINISHING NW-N OFF SHORE FLOW. AS WINDS
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD UP TO 10 SEC
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVER THE THE SHORTER PERIOD
WIND WAVES.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
WILL MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT
ON WEATHER DOWN HERE AT THE SURFACE. WITH LARGELY OFFSHORE WINDS
AND ONLY A TINY 9-SECOND SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SEAS SHOULD
AVERAGE 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS KEEPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE
NEARLY EVERY COMPASS DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE FROM THE W/NW...BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO THE E/NE...AND THEN VEERING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING
TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION.
THANKS TO THESE LIGHT WINDS...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-2
FT...WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 231857
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
257 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON IN DEEP NW FLOW AROUND FRONT END OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN FROM THE N-NW. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF DEEP
LOW OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH TONIGHT. PCP WATER LEVELS BASICALLY BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BIT OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAM OVER AREA IN W-SW FLOW AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE BY MORNING.

THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
CLOSER OVERHEAD. THEREFORE ANY LINGERING GUSTY NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DECOUPLE AS SUN SETS THIS EVENING LEAVING NEAR CALM WINDS BY LATE
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MODIFY AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER BUT OVERALL TEMPS UP CLOSE TO 70 THIS AFTN
UNDER BRIGHT OCTOBER SUNSHINE...WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING UNDER
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN TO
4O TO 45 DEGREES MOST PLACES. ANY CIRRUS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPS MUCH AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
AS OFFSHORE WINDS PREVENT ANY LOW OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE IMPRESSIVE
DISTURBANCE WITH STRONGER NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...UP TO 80 KNOTS AT 300 MB. THIS SYSTEM MAY
EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT THE REMNANTS OF OLD TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...BUT MUCH TOO FAR EAST
FOR ANY IMPACT LOCALLY.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER PARTICULARLY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS. ANY CHANGES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE ALL MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
GORGEOUS FALL WEATHER LOCALLY. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING A CONTINUED BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AS RIDGING
BLOOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...AND THEN AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BENEATH THIS RIDGE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFFSHORE...SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL
LONG-TERM WITH A WARMING TREND FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY...TO
WELL ABOVE BY TUE/WED...AND THIS WARMING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CLOUD COVER...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND LIKELY DROP
SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS LIMITED AND THE COLUMN REMAINS
PRETTY DRY...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS...PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...THURSDAY WILL
OFFER THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE AREA. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND
HIGHER GUSTS OVER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL SEE SOME GUSTIER WINDS IN WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT AS COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER WATERS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS...HIGHEST IN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN DIMINISHING NW-N OFF SHORE FLOW. AS WINDS DIMINISH
THROUGH TONIGHT...A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD UP TO 10 SEC NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVER THE THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND
WAVES.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
WILL MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT
ON WEATHER DOWN HERE AT THE SURFACE. WITH LARGELY OFFSHORE WINDS
AND ONLY A TINY 9-SECOND SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SEAS SHOULD
AVERAGE 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS KEEPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE
NEARLY EVERY COMPASS DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE FROM THE W/NW...BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO THE E/NE...AND THEN VEERING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING
TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION.
THANKS TO THESE LIGHT WINDS...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-2
FT...WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 231857
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
257 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON IN DEEP NW FLOW AROUND FRONT END OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN FROM THE N-NW. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF DEEP
LOW OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH TONIGHT. PCP WATER LEVELS BASICALLY BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BIT OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAM OVER AREA IN W-SW FLOW AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE BY MORNING.

THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
CLOSER OVERHEAD. THEREFORE ANY LINGERING GUSTY NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DECOUPLE AS SUN SETS THIS EVENING LEAVING NEAR CALM WINDS BY LATE
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MODIFY AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER BUT OVERALL TEMPS UP CLOSE TO 70 THIS AFTN
UNDER BRIGHT OCTOBER SUNSHINE...WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING UNDER
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN TO
4O TO 45 DEGREES MOST PLACES. ANY CIRRUS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPS MUCH AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
AS OFFSHORE WINDS PREVENT ANY LOW OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE IMPRESSIVE
DISTURBANCE WITH STRONGER NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...UP TO 80 KNOTS AT 300 MB. THIS SYSTEM MAY
EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT THE REMNANTS OF OLD TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...BUT MUCH TOO FAR EAST
FOR ANY IMPACT LOCALLY.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER PARTICULARLY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS. ANY CHANGES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE ALL MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
GORGEOUS FALL WEATHER LOCALLY. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING A CONTINUED BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AS RIDGING
BLOOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...AND THEN AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BENEATH THIS RIDGE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFFSHORE...SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL
LONG-TERM WITH A WARMING TREND FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY...TO
WELL ABOVE BY TUE/WED...AND THIS WARMING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CLOUD COVER...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND LIKELY DROP
SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS LIMITED AND THE COLUMN REMAINS
PRETTY DRY...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS...PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...THURSDAY WILL
OFFER THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE AREA. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND
HIGHER GUSTS OVER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL SEE SOME GUSTIER WINDS IN WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT AS COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER WATERS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS...HIGHEST IN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN DIMINISHING NW-N OFF SHORE FLOW. AS WINDS DIMINISH
THROUGH TONIGHT...A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD UP TO 10 SEC NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVER THE THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND
WAVES.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
WILL MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT
ON WEATHER DOWN HERE AT THE SURFACE. WITH LARGELY OFFSHORE WINDS
AND ONLY A TINY 9-SECOND SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SEAS SHOULD
AVERAGE 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS KEEPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE
NEARLY EVERY COMPASS DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE FROM THE W/NW...BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO THE E/NE...AND THEN VEERING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING
TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION.
THANKS TO THESE LIGHT WINDS...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-2
FT...WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 231748
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
148 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON IN DEEP NW FLOW AROUND FRONT END OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN FROM THE N-NW. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF DEEP
LOW OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH TONIGHT. PCP WATER LEVELS BASICALLY BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BIT OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAM OVER AREA IN W-SW FLOW AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE BY MORNING.

THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
CLOSER OVERHEAD. THEREFORE ANY LINGERING GUSTY NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DECOUPLE AS SUN SETS THIS EVENING LEAVING NEAR CALM WINDS BY LATE
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MODIFY AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER BUT OVERALL TEMPS UP CLOSE TO 70 THIS AFTN
UNDER BRIGHT OCTOBER SUNSHINE...WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING UNDER
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN TO
4O TO 45 DEGREES MOST PLACES. ANY CIRRUS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPS MUCH AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
FRI AS STACKED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HEADS TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SHORTWAVE HAS ALMOST NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
DUE TO PROLONGED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL UNDER HALF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB WHICH MAY MANIFEST AS SOME CLOUDS
AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WEAK
FRONT TRAILS THE SHORTWAVE LATER SAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARIES WAKE. HIGHS NEAR CLIMO FRI WILL CLIMB ABOVE
CLIMO SAT ON THE BACK OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE...AND SUBTLE
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS RUN BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED SAT NIGHT SO DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP DRY AIR
MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL COMPLETE THE
TRANSITION FROM AMPLIFIED TO ZONAL SUN AS DRY FRONT EXITS THE
REGION. PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE
AREA ON SUN OVERHEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER THE DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE COLUMN
DRY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS TUE WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO.
SUBSIDENCE AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH
RETURN FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH WED. LOWS START OUT BELOW CLIMO...WITH DEEP DRY
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TUE WILL PUSH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE AREA. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND
HIGHER GUSTS OVER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL SEE SOME GUSTIER WINDS IN WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT AS COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER WATERS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS...HIGHEST IN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN DIMINISHING NW-N OFF SHORE FLOW. AS WINDS DIMINISH
THROUGH TONIGHT...A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD UP TO 10 SEC NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVER THE THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND
WAVES.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
FRI...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WILL BE OF LIMITED
STRENGTH WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MAY KICK UP NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT FOR
SAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS POSSIBLE LATER SAT NIGHT
AS DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15
KT THOUGHT THE PERIOD...THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT. SEAS START OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FT BUT DROP TO 1 TO 2 FT BY
MIDDAY AND REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT INTO SAT BEFORE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW
SAT NIGHT CAUSES SOME 3 FT SEAS NEAR 20 NM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 15 KT EARLY SUN
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING MON WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ON SUN SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FT BY MON MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...









000
FXUS62 KILM 231748
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
148 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON IN DEEP NW FLOW AROUND FRONT END OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN FROM THE N-NW. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF DEEP
LOW OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH TONIGHT. PCP WATER LEVELS BASICALLY BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BIT OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAM OVER AREA IN W-SW FLOW AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE BY MORNING.

THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
CLOSER OVERHEAD. THEREFORE ANY LINGERING GUSTY NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DECOUPLE AS SUN SETS THIS EVENING LEAVING NEAR CALM WINDS BY LATE
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MODIFY AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER BUT OVERALL TEMPS UP CLOSE TO 70 THIS AFTN
UNDER BRIGHT OCTOBER SUNSHINE...WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING UNDER
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN TO
4O TO 45 DEGREES MOST PLACES. ANY CIRRUS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPS MUCH AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
FRI AS STACKED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HEADS TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SHORTWAVE HAS ALMOST NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
DUE TO PROLONGED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL UNDER HALF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB WHICH MAY MANIFEST AS SOME CLOUDS
AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WEAK
FRONT TRAILS THE SHORTWAVE LATER SAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARIES WAKE. HIGHS NEAR CLIMO FRI WILL CLIMB ABOVE
CLIMO SAT ON THE BACK OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE...AND SUBTLE
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS RUN BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED SAT NIGHT SO DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP DRY AIR
MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL COMPLETE THE
TRANSITION FROM AMPLIFIED TO ZONAL SUN AS DRY FRONT EXITS THE
REGION. PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE
AREA ON SUN OVERHEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER THE DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE COLUMN
DRY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS TUE WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO.
SUBSIDENCE AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH
RETURN FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH WED. LOWS START OUT BELOW CLIMO...WITH DEEP DRY
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TUE WILL PUSH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE AREA. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND
HIGHER GUSTS OVER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL SEE SOME GUSTIER WINDS IN WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT AS COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER WATERS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS...HIGHEST IN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN DIMINISHING NW-N OFF SHORE FLOW. AS WINDS DIMINISH
THROUGH TONIGHT...A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD UP TO 10 SEC NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVER THE THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND
WAVES.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
FRI...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WILL BE OF LIMITED
STRENGTH WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MAY KICK UP NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT FOR
SAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS POSSIBLE LATER SAT NIGHT
AS DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15
KT THOUGHT THE PERIOD...THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT. SEAS START OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FT BUT DROP TO 1 TO 2 FT BY
MIDDAY AND REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT INTO SAT BEFORE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW
SAT NIGHT CAUSES SOME 3 FT SEAS NEAR 20 NM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 15 KT EARLY SUN
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING MON WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ON SUN SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FT BY MON MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...









000
FXUS62 KILM 231500
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1057 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY ON TAP.
CONTINUED DEEP NW FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE N-NW. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF DEEP LOW OFF OF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH OVERALL DEEP DRY COLUMN. PCP WATER
LEVELS BASICALLY BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BIT
OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS STREAM OVER AREA IN W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
OVERNIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. THEREFORE ANY GUSTY NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DECOUPLE AS SUN SETS THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN
TO MODIFY BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH UP CLOSE TO 70 UNDER
BRIGHT OCTOBER SUNSHINE. A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP DROP TO 4O TO 45 DEGREES MOST PLACES...WITH SOME 30S IN
TRADITIONALLY WIND SHELTERED OR COOLER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
FRI AS STACKED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HEADS TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SHORTWAVE HAS ALMOST NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
DUE TO PROLONGED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL UNDER HALF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB WHICH MAY MANIFEST AS SOME CLOUDS
AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WEAK
FRONT TRAILS THE SHORTWAVE LATER SAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARIES WAKE. HIGHS NEAR CLIMO FRI WILL CLIMB ABOVE
CLIMO SAT ON THE BACK OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE...AND SUBTLE
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS RUN BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED SAT NIGHT SO DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP DRY AIR
MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL COMPLETE THE
TRANSITION FROM AMPLIFIED TO ZONAL SUN AS DRY FRONT EXITS THE
REGION. PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE
AREA ON SUN OVERHEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER THE DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE COLUMN
DRY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS TUE WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO.
SUBSIDENCE AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH
RETURN FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH WED. LOWS START OUT BELOW CLIMO...WITH DEEP DRY
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TUE WILL PUSH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CONTINUES. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...ALL PRECAUTIONARY HEADLINES DROPPED BY
MID MORNING. AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...GRADIENT
WILL RELAX. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS OVER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL SEE SOME GUSTIER WINDS IN
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT AS COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN
DIMINISHING NW-N OFF SHORE FLOW. AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT...A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD UP TO 10 SEC NORTHERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVER THE THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
FRI...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WILL BE OF LIMITED
STRENGTH WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MAY KICK UP NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT FOR
SAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS POSSIBLE LATER SAT NIGHT
AS DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15
KT THOUGHT THE PERIOD...THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT. SEAS START OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FT BUT DROP TO 1 TO 2 FT BY
MIDDAY AND REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT INTO SAT BEFORE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW
SAT NIGHT CAUSES SOME 3 FT SEAS NEAR 20 NM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 15 KT EARLY SUN
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING MON WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ON SUN SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FT BY MON MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL













000
FXUS62 KILM 231457
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1057 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY ON TAP.
CONTINUED DEEP NW FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE N-NW. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF DEEP LOW OFF OF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH OVERALL DEEP DRY COLUMN. PCP WATER
LEVELS BASICALLY BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BIT
OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS STREAM OVER AREA IN W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
OVERNIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. THEREFORE ANY GUSTY NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DECOUPLE AS SUN SETS THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN
TO MODIFY BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH UP CLOSE TO 70 UNDER
BRIGHT OCTOBER SUNSHINE. A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP DROP TO 4O TO 45 DEGREES MOST PLACES...WITH SOME 30S IN
TRADITIONALLY WIND SHELTERED OR COOLER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
FRI AS STACKED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HEADS TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SHORTWAVE HAS ALMOST NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
DUE TO PROLONGED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL UNDER HALF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB WHICH MAY MANIFEST AS SOME CLOUDS
AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WEAK
FRONT TRAILS THE SHORTWAVE LATER SAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARIES WAKE. HIGHS NEAR CLIMO FRI WILL CLIMB ABOVE
CLIMO SAT ON THE BACK OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE...AND SUBTLE
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS RUN BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED SAT NIGHT SO DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP DRY AIR
MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION
FROM AMPLIFIED TO ZONAL SUN AS DRY FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE AREA ON
SUN OVERHEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE COLUMN DRY.
ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
TUE WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO. SUBSIDENCE
AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGH WED. LOWS START OUT BELOW CLIMO...WITH DEEP DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TUE WILL PUSH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CONTINUES. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...ALL PRECAUTIONARY HEADLINES DROPPED BY
MID MORNING. AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...GRADIENT
WILL RELAX. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS OVER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL SEE SOME GUSTIER WINDS IN
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT AS COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN
DIMINISHING NW-N OFF SHORE FLOW.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
FRI...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WILL BE OF LIMITED
STRENGTH WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MAY KICK UP NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT FOR
SAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS POSSIBLE LATER SAT NIGHT
AS DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15
KT THOUGHT THE PERIOD...THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT. SEAS START OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FT BUT DROP TO 1 TO 2 FT BY
MIDDAY AND REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT INTO SAT BEFORE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW
SAT NIGHT CAUSES SOME 3 FT SEAS NEAR 20 NM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 15 KT EARLY SUN
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING MON WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ON SUN SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FT BY MON MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL










000
FXUS62 KILM 231457
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1057 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY ON TAP.
CONTINUED DEEP NW FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE N-NW. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF DEEP LOW OFF OF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH OVERALL DEEP DRY COLUMN. PCP WATER
LEVELS BASICALLY BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BIT
OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS STREAM OVER AREA IN W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
OVERNIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. THEREFORE ANY GUSTY NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DECOUPLE AS SUN SETS THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN
TO MODIFY BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH UP CLOSE TO 70 UNDER
BRIGHT OCTOBER SUNSHINE. A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP DROP TO 4O TO 45 DEGREES MOST PLACES...WITH SOME 30S IN
TRADITIONALLY WIND SHELTERED OR COOLER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
FRI AS STACKED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HEADS TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SHORTWAVE HAS ALMOST NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
DUE TO PROLONGED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL UNDER HALF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB WHICH MAY MANIFEST AS SOME CLOUDS
AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WEAK
FRONT TRAILS THE SHORTWAVE LATER SAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARIES WAKE. HIGHS NEAR CLIMO FRI WILL CLIMB ABOVE
CLIMO SAT ON THE BACK OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE...AND SUBTLE
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS RUN BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED SAT NIGHT SO DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP DRY AIR
MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION
FROM AMPLIFIED TO ZONAL SUN AS DRY FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE AREA ON
SUN OVERHEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE COLUMN DRY.
ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
TUE WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO. SUBSIDENCE
AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGH WED. LOWS START OUT BELOW CLIMO...WITH DEEP DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TUE WILL PUSH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CONTINUES. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...ALL PRECAUTIONARY HEADLINES DROPPED BY
MID MORNING. AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...GRADIENT
WILL RELAX. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS OVER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL SEE SOME GUSTIER WINDS IN
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT AS COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN
DIMINISHING NW-N OFF SHORE FLOW.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
FRI...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WILL BE OF LIMITED
STRENGTH WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MAY KICK UP NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT FOR
SAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS POSSIBLE LATER SAT NIGHT
AS DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15
KT THOUGHT THE PERIOD...THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT. SEAS START OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FT BUT DROP TO 1 TO 2 FT BY
MIDDAY AND REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT INTO SAT BEFORE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW
SAT NIGHT CAUSES SOME 3 FT SEAS NEAR 20 NM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 15 KT EARLY SUN
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING MON WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ON SUN SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FT BY MON MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL










000
FXUS62 KILM 231059
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
659 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL
RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY THIS
MORNING...HIGH AND DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR A
HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM
THE NW AND W THIS PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AND WE ARE
FORECASTING A SUNNY DAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ABATE
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. FLAT TO SUBTLE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MAY BRING SOME CIRRUS
TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY LATER TODAY AND THIS MODIFICATION
PROCESS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE IN THE COMING DAYS. WE EXPECT HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE NEAR THOSE OF WED...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...LOWER 70S. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE THE RESIDUAL
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL HANG ON LONGEST. UPPER 60S WILL BE MOST COMMON
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND AND CAPE FEAR COAST THROUGH WHITEVILLE AND
LUMBERTON AND POINTS NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
MID 40S WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
FRI AS STACKED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HEADS TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SHORTWAVE HAS ALMOST NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
DUE TO PROLONGED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL UNDER HALF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB WHICH MAY MANIFEST AS SOME CLOUDS
AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WEAK
FRONT TRAILS THE SHORTWAVE LATER SAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARIES WAKE. HIGHS NEAR CLIMO FRI WILL CLIMB ABOVE
CLIMO SAT ON THE BACK OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE...AND SUBTLE
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS RUN BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED SAT NIGHT SO DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP DRY AIR
MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION
FROM AMPLIFIED TO ZONAL SUN AS DRY FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE AREA ON
SUN OVERHEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE COLUMN DRY.
ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
TUE WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO. SUBSIDENCE
AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGH WED. LOWS START OUT BELOW CLIMO...WITH DEEP DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TUE WILL PUSH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CONTINUES. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE TIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THE RESULT...NNW TO NW
WINDS UP TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE THROUGH MID
MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN BEGINNING LATER
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO DIMINISH. THE DIRECTION
WILL VERY SLOWLY VEER TO NORTH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 4
FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
FRI...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WILL BE OF LIMITED
STRENGTH WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MAY KICK UP NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT FOR
SAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS POSSIBLE LATER SAT NIGHT
AS DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15
KT THOUGHT THE PERIOD...THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT. SEAS START OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FT BUT DROP TO 1 TO 2 FT BY
MIDDAY AND REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT INTO SAT BEFORE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW
SAT NIGHT CAUSES SOME 3 FT SEAS NEAR 20 NM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 15 KT EARLY SUN
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING MON WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ON SUN SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FT BY MON MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 231056
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL
RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY THIS
MORNING...HIGH AND DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR A
HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM
THE NW AND W THIS PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AND WE ARE
FORECASTING A SUNNY DAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ABATE
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. FLAT TO SUBTLE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MAY BRING SOME CIRRUS
TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY LATER TODAY AND THIS MODIFICATION
PROCESS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE IN THE COMING DAYS. WE EXPECT HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE NEAR THOSE OF WED...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...LOWER 70S. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE THE RESIDUAL
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL HANG ON LONGEST. UPPER 60S WILL BE MOST COMMON
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND AND CAPE FEAR COAST THROUGH WHITEVILLE AND
LUMBERTON AND POINTS NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
MID 40S WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
FRI AS STACKED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HEADS TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SHORTWAVE HAS ALMOST NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
DUE TO PROLONGED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL UNDER HALF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB WHICH MAY MANIFEST AS SOME CLOUDS
AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WEAK
FRONT TRAILS THE SHORTWAVE LATER SAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARIES WAKE. HIGHS NEAR CLIMO FRI WILL CLIMB ABOVE
CLIMO SAT ON THE BACK OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE...AND SUBTLE
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS RUN BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED SAT NIGHT SO DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP DRY AIR
MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION
FROM AMPLIFIED TO ZONAL SUN AS DRY FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE AREA ON
SUN OVERHEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE COLUMN DRY.
ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
TUE WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO. SUBSIDENCE
AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGH WED. LOWS START OUT BELOW CLIMO...WITH DEEP DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TUE WILL PUSH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER SUNRISE WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE TIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THE RESULT...NNW TO NW
WINDS UP TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE THROUGH MID
MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN BEGINNING LATER
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO DIMINISH. THE DIRECTION
WILL VERY SLOWLY VEER TO NORTH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 4
FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
FRI...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WILL BE OF LIMITED
STRENGTH WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MAY KICK UP NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT FOR
SAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS POSSIBLE LATER SAT NIGHT
AS DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15
KT THOUGHT THE PERIOD...THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT. SEAS START OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FT BUT DROP TO 1 TO 2 FT BY
MIDDAY AND REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT INTO SAT BEFORE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW
SAT NIGHT CAUSES SOME 3 FT SEAS NEAR 20 NM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 15 KT EARLY SUN
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING MON WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ON SUN SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FT BY MON MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43/RJD







000
FXUS62 KILM 230705
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
305 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL
RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY THIS
MORNING...HIGH AND DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR A
HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM
THE NW AND W THIS PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AND WE ARE
FORECASTING A SUNNY DAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ABATE
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. FLAT TO SUBTLE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MAY BRING SOME CIRRUS
TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY LATER TODAY AND THIS MODIFICATION
PROCESS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE IN THE COMING DAYS. WE EXPECT HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE NEAR THOSE OF WED...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...LOWER 70S. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE THE RESIDUAL
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL HANG ON LONGEST. UPPER 60S WILL BE MOST COMMON
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND AND CAPE FEAR COAST THROUGH WHITEVILLE AND
LUMBERTON AND POINTS NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
MID 40S WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
FRI AS STACKED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HEADS TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SHORTWAVE HAS ALMOST NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
DUE TO PROLONGED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL UNDER HALF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB WHICH MAY MANIFEST AS SOME CLOUDS
AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WEAK
FRONT TRAILS THE SHORTWAVE LATER SAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARIES WAKE. HIGHS NEAR CLIMO FRI WILL CLIMB ABOVE
CLIMO SAT ON THE BACK OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE...AND SUBTLE
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS RUN BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED SAT NIGHT SO DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP DRY AIR
MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION
FROM AMPLIFIED TO ZONAL SUN AS DRY FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE AREA ON
SUN OVERHEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE COLUMN DRY.
ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
TUE WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO. SUBSIDENCE
AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGH WED. LOWS START OUT BELOW CLIMO...WITH DEEP DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TUE WILL PUSH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER SUNRISE WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE TIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THE RESULT...NNW TO NW
WINDS UP TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE
A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE THROUGH MID
MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN BEGINNING LATER
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO DIMINISH. THE DIRECTION
WILL VERY SLOWLY VEER TO NORTH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 4
FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
FRI...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WILL BE OF LIMITED
STRENGTH WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MAY KICK UP NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT FOR
SAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS POSSIBLE LATER SAT NIGHT
AS DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15
KT THOUGHT THE PERIOD...THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT. SEAS START OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FT BUT DROP TO 1 TO 2 FT BY
MIDDAY AND REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT INTO SAT BEFORE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW
SAT NIGHT CAUSES SOME 3 FT SEAS NEAR 20 NM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 15 KT EARLY SUN
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING MON WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ON SUN SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FT BY MON MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43/RJD








000
FXUS62 KILM 230541
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
142 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL
RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ILM CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...TO
OFF THE NJ-NY COASTS BY DAYBREAK. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC HAS
DISSIPATED SINCE THE LOSS OF THE DAYS HEATING. THE CLOUDS
CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N THRU E OF THE ILM
CWA AS THE UPPER LOW ITSELF LIFTS TO THE NE. THEREFORE...WILL BE
LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE MASSAGED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND AVAILABLE MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF EVEN LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
LATE IN THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS WITH SOME UPPER 30S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA...UP TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER SUNRISE WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENED SFC PG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT...AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WATERS OFF THE NJ AND NY COASTS
BY DAYBREAK THU. WILL CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE NW-NNW WINDS 10-20
KT...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS
OFF CAPE FEAR AND NORTHWARD. DECENT MIXING TO OCCUR TO THE OCEAN
SFC AS 20-30 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK OCCUR ACROSS SSTS IN THE
70S. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND OFF WINYAH BAY. WIND DRIVEN
WAVES TO DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND
4 SECONDS. AN EASTERLY 1 FOOT OR LESS GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND
PERIODS TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL/RJD







000
FXUS62 KILM 230240
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1040 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ILM CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...TO
OFF THE NJ-NY COASTS BY DAYBREAK. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC HAS
DISSIPATED SINCE THE LOSS OF THE DAYS HEATING. THE CLOUDS
CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N THRU E OF THE ILM
CWA AS THE UPPER LOW ITSELF LIFTS TO THE NE. THEREFORE...WILL BE
LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE MASSAGED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND AVAILABLE MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF EVEN LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
LATE IN THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS WITH SOME UPPER 30S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA...UP TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND
PARENT UPPER LOW ARE SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...WITH
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENED SFC PG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT...AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WATERS OFF THE NJ AND NY COASTS
BY DAYBREAK THU. WILL CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE NW-NNW WINDS 10-20
KT...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS
OFF CAPE FEAR AND NORTHWARD. DECENT MIXING TO OCCUR TO THE OCEAN
SFC AS 20-30 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK OCCUR ACROSS SSTS IN THE
70S. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND OFF WINYAH BAY. WIND DRIVEN
WAVES TO DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND
4 SECONDS. AN EASTERLY 1 FOOT OR LESS GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND
PERIODS TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL






000
FXUS62 KILM 230010
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
810 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FA TONIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO OFF
NJ-NY COASTS BY DAYBREAK. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAS PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED SINCE THE LOSS OF THE DAYS HEATING. WILL BE LOOKING AT
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS MASSAGED BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS AND AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE AN
INFLUX OF EVEN LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS LATE IN THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS
...WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA
UP TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
TODAY AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON BACK END OF POTENT MID
TO UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL VERY
DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME PASSING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE CAA TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 70
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE LAND AFTER SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH THE SKIES WILL BE PERFECTLY CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIGHTEN BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEY MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP OUT A BIT FURTHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT READINGS DOWN
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND
PARENT UPPER LOW ARE SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...WITH
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENED SFC PG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT...AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WATERS OFF THE NJ AND NY COASTS
BY DAYBREAK THU. WILL CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE NW-NNW WINDS 10-20
KT...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR
AND NORTHWARD. DECENT MIXING TO OCCUR WITH 20-30 KT WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK AND OCCURRING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 70S. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN
THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR AND OFF WINYAH BAY. WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE THE SEAS
SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND 4 SECONDS. AN EASTERLY 1
FOOT OR LESS GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND PERIODS REMAINS
IDENTIFIABLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS SEAS
OUT AT FRYING PAN HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS
WILL EASE UP A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE COOL DRY AIR
OVER THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
KEEP WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW NEAR SHORE WITH A STRONGER
OFF SHORE NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY
FARTHER OUT IN STEEPER SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. THE OFF SHORE NW
WINDS WILL KEEP LOWER SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND HIGHEST SEAS
IN OUTER WATERS...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL







000
FXUS62 KILM 230010
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
810 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FA TONIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO OFF
NJ-NY COASTS BY DAYBREAK. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAS PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED SINCE THE LOSS OF THE DAYS HEATING. WILL BE LOOKING AT
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS MASSAGED BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS AND AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE AN
INFLUX OF EVEN LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS LATE IN THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS
...WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA
UP TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
TODAY AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON BACK END OF POTENT MID
TO UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL VERY
DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME PASSING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE CAA TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 70
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE LAND AFTER SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH THE SKIES WILL BE PERFECTLY CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIGHTEN BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEY MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP OUT A BIT FURTHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT READINGS DOWN
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND
PARENT UPPER LOW ARE SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...WITH
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENED SFC PG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT...AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WATERS OFF THE NJ AND NY COASTS
BY DAYBREAK THU. WILL CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE NW-NNW WINDS 10-20
KT...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR
AND NORTHWARD. DECENT MIXING TO OCCUR WITH 20-30 KT WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK AND OCCURRING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 70S. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN
THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR AND OFF WINYAH BAY. WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE THE SEAS
SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND 4 SECONDS. AN EASTERLY 1
FOOT OR LESS GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND PERIODS REMAINS
IDENTIFIABLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS SEAS
OUT AT FRYING PAN HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS
WILL EASE UP A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE COOL DRY AIR
OVER THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
KEEP WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW NEAR SHORE WITH A STRONGER
OFF SHORE NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY
FARTHER OUT IN STEEPER SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. THE OFF SHORE NW
WINDS WILL KEEP LOWER SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND HIGHEST SEAS
IN OUTER WATERS...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL







000
FXUS62 KILM 222217
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
TODAY AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON BACK END OF POTENT MID
TO UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL VERY
DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME PASSING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE CAA TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 70
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE LAND AFTER SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH THE SKIES WILL BE PERFECTLY CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIGHTEN BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEY MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP OUT A BIT FURTHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT READINGS DOWN
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND
PARENT UPPER LOW ARE SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...WITH
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS SEAS
OUT AT FRYING PAN HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL
EASE UP A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE COOL DRY AIR OVER
THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP
WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW NEAR SHORE WITH A STRONGER OFF
SHORE NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER
OUT IN STEEPER SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. THE OFF SHORE NW WINDS
WILL KEEP LOWER SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND HIGHEST SEAS IN
OUTER WATERS...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 222217
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
TODAY AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON BACK END OF POTENT MID
TO UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL VERY
DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME PASSING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE CAA TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 70
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE LAND AFTER SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH THE SKIES WILL BE PERFECTLY CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIGHTEN BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEY MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP OUT A BIT FURTHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT READINGS DOWN
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND
PARENT UPPER LOW ARE SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...WITH
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS SEAS
OUT AT FRYING PAN HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL
EASE UP A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE COOL DRY AIR OVER
THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP
WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW NEAR SHORE WITH A STRONGER OFF
SHORE NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER
OUT IN STEEPER SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. THE OFF SHORE NW WINDS
WILL KEEP LOWER SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND HIGHEST SEAS IN
OUTER WATERS...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 221908
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
308 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
TODAY AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON BACK END OF POTENT MID
TO UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL VERY
DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME PASSING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE CAA TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 70
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE LAND AFTER SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH THE SKIES WILL BE PERFECTLY CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIGHTEN BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEY MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP OUT A BIT FURTHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT READINGS DOWN
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT AND GUSTS AOA 20 KT.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS SEAS
OUT AT FRYING PAN HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL
EASE UP A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE COOL DRY AIR OVER
THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP
WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW NEAR SHORE WITH A STRONGER OFF
SHORE NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER
OUT IN STEEPER SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. THE OFF SHORE NW WINDS
WILL KEEP LOWER SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND HIGHEST SEAS IN
OUTER WATERS...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ






000
FXUS62 KILM 221807
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
207 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...SUNNY BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
TODAY AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON BACK END OF POTENT MID
TO UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL VERY
DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE MAY SEE A CLOUD OR TWO OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE CAA TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER
TO 70 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE LAND AFTER SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH THE SKIES WILL BE PERFECTLY CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIGHTEN BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEY MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP OUT A BIT FURTHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT READINGS DOWN
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION
PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT
BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS
TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR
INTRUSIONS WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SAT NIGHT CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO.
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE WINDS
THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTS AOA 20
KT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS SEAS
OUT AT FRYING PAN HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL
EASE UP A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE COOL DRY AIR OVER
THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP
WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW NEAR SHORE WITH A STRONGER OFF
SHORE NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER
OUT IN STEEPER SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. THE OFF SHORE NW WINDS
WILL KEEP LOWER SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND HIGHEST SEAS IN
OUTER WATERS...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE
COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING
TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP
IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RAN










000
FXUS62 KILM 221426
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1026 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MILD AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SUNNY BREEZY AND COOL DAY TODAY
AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON BACK END OF POTENT MID TO
UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
OVERALL VERY DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
TODAY. THEREFORE MAY SEE A CLOUD OR TWO OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT
OVERALL ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL TRY AND OFFSET THE CAA TO BRING TEMPS
CLOSE TO 70 TODAY...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TODAY BEFORE MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH
TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AS WELL AS VERY DRY
AIR. THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES THIS AFTN IN
MANY PLACES.

TONIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY ONE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR...BUT NOT
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE NW WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO 40-45 DEGREES...WITH WIND
CHILLS AT FIRST LIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION
PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT
BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS
TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR
INTRUSIONS WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SAT NIGHT CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO.
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE 12Z-22Z WINDOW WHEN NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KT...PERHAPS EVEN 25 KT...ARE
EXPECTED.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT CONTINUES
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HOLD BASICALLY FOR OUTER RIM OF LOCAL WATERS
WHERE A FEW 5 FTERS EXIST. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE FROM THE GUSTY
NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OR SO THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN. SEAS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW INSHORE WITH A STRONGER OFF SHORE NW WIND...BUT
SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT. SEAS PRIMARILY
2-5 FEET AND HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE
TIED WITH WINDS...SO SHORT WAVELENGTHS AND STEEP SEAS WILL BE THE
RULE OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL EASE UP A LITTLE
TONIGHT BUT THE COOL DRY AIR OVER THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH
TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AS LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
WATERS...WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE
COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING
TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP
IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RAN










000
FXUS62 KILM 221136
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
735 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...LOCAL RADAR WIND PROFILE CLOCKING 30 TO
40 KT N WIND BARBS 1-2 KFT OFF THE SURFACE RESPECTIVELY...AS A
SPOKE OF CYCLONIC ENERGY ROTATES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW. ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE DAYBREAK
INCLUDE TRIMMING MAXIMUMS A DEGREE BASED ON RECENT GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM N TO S IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TODAY. WILL ALSO REDUCE CLOUD COVER A FEW TICKS WITH
LITTLE AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED IN THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUNNY COOL AND BREEZY DAY TO KICK OFF WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT OFFSHORE AND HAS ALLOWED STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BARGE INTO THE AREA. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
BREWING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE N OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

BRISK AND DEEP NW FLOW TO ENVELOP THE REGION WITH DRYING IN MID
AND LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH H8 MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO DIURNAL SFC
HEATING TO COOK A FEW CUMULUS AT 5-6 KFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC
INTERIOR...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SCOPE.

MAXIMUMS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WIND-CHILL TO BOOT THIS MORNING. FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WIND TRAJECTORIES HOWEVER SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT WARM-UP
DESPITE THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND GENERALLY A 68-72
DEGREE RANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. WARM ICW WATERS IN NW
WIND COULD WARM PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL STRIPS A LITTLE HIGHER.

TONIGHT A CHILLY ONE UNDER CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR...BUT NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE NW WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES OF 40-45 DEGREES EXPECTED...WITH
WIND CHILLS AT FIRST LIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION
PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT
BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS
TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR
INTRUSIONS WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SAT NIGHT CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO.
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE 12Z-22Z WINDOW WHEN NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KT...PERHAPS EVEN 25 KT...ARE
EXPECTED.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...CAUTION STATEMENTS RAISED FOR NC WATERS.
20 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INSHORE WITH A NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-5 FEET AND
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE TIED WITH
WINDS...SO SHORT WAVELENGTHS AND STEEP SEAS WILL BE THE RULE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. WINDS SPEEDS FROM THE NW SHOULD
EASE TO 15 HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GUSTY NW SURGE WEARS
OFF A LITTLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE
COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING
TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP
IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...XXXI
MARINE...8/3










000
FXUS62 KILM 220957
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...LOCAL RADAR WIND PROFILE CLOCKING 30 TO
40 KT N WIND BARBS 1-2 KFT OFF THE SURFACE RESPECTIVELY...AS A
SPOKE OF CYCLONIC ENERGY ROTATES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW. ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE DAYBREAK
INCLUDE TRIMMING MAXIMUMS A DEGREE BASED ON RECENT GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM N TO S IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TODAY. WILL ALSO REDUCE CLOUD COVER A FEW TICKS WITH
LITTLE AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED IN THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUNNY COOL AND BREEZY DAY TO KICK OFF WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT OFFSHORE AND HAS ALLOWED STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BARGE INTO THE AREA. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
BREWING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE N OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

BRISK AND DEEP NW FLOW TO ENVELOP THE REGION WITH DRYING IN MID
AND LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH H8 MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO DIURNAL SFC
HEATING TO COOK A FEW CUMULUS AT 5-6 KFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC
INTERIOR...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SCOPE.

MAXIMUMS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WIND-CHILL TO BOOT THIS MORNING. FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WIND TRAJECTORIES HOWEVER SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT WARM-UP
DESPITE THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND GENERALLY A 68-72
DEGREE RANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. WARM ICW WATERS IN NW
WIND COULD WARM PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL STRIPS A LITTLE HIGHER.

TONIGHT A CHILLY ONE UNDER CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR...BUT NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE NW WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES OF 40-45 DEGREES EXPECTED...WITH
WIND CHILLS AT FIRST LIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION
PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT
BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS
TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR INTRUSIONS
WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAT NIGHT
CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO. DEVELOPMENT OF
RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE N AFT 6Z ACCOMPANIED BY
SCT-BKN070. NNW GUSTS TO 24KT AFT 14Z. CLEARING TO VFR AFTER 9Z
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. SCATTERED CU POSSIBLE WITH AFTN HEATING
SCT050-060. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING BUT LIKELY STAY
4-7 5 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...CAUTION STATEMENTS RAISED FOR NC WATERS.
20 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INSHORE WITH A NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-5 FEET AND
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE TIED WITH
WINDS...SO SHORT WAVELENGTHS AND STEEP SEAS WILL BE THE RULE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. WINDS SPEEDS FROM THE NW SHOULD
EASE TO 15 HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GUSTY NW SURGE WEARS
OFF A LITTLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE
COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING
TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP
IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...8/RAN
MARINE...8/3











000
FXUS62 KILM 220957
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...LOCAL RADAR WIND PROFILE CLOCKING 30 TO
40 KT N WIND BARBS 1-2 KFT OFF THE SURFACE RESPECTIVELY...AS A
SPOKE OF CYCLONIC ENERGY ROTATES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW. ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE DAYBREAK
INCLUDE TRIMMING MAXIMUMS A DEGREE BASED ON RECENT GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM N TO S IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TODAY. WILL ALSO REDUCE CLOUD COVER A FEW TICKS WITH
LITTLE AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED IN THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUNNY COOL AND BREEZY DAY TO KICK OFF WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT OFFSHORE AND HAS ALLOWED STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BARGE INTO THE AREA. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
BREWING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE N OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

BRISK AND DEEP NW FLOW TO ENVELOP THE REGION WITH DRYING IN MID
AND LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH H8 MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO DIURNAL SFC
HEATING TO COOK A FEW CUMULUS AT 5-6 KFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC
INTERIOR...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SCOPE.

MAXIMUMS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WIND-CHILL TO BOOT THIS MORNING. FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WIND TRAJECTORIES HOWEVER SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT WARM-UP
DESPITE THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND GENERALLY A 68-72
DEGREE RANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. WARM ICW WATERS IN NW
WIND COULD WARM PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL STRIPS A LITTLE HIGHER.

TONIGHT A CHILLY ONE UNDER CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR...BUT NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE NW WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES OF 40-45 DEGREES EXPECTED...WITH
WIND CHILLS AT FIRST LIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION
PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT
BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS
TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR INTRUSIONS
WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAT NIGHT
CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO. DEVELOPMENT OF
RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE N AFT 6Z ACCOMPANIED BY
SCT-BKN070. NNW GUSTS TO 24KT AFT 14Z. CLEARING TO VFR AFTER 9Z
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. SCATTERED CU POSSIBLE WITH AFTN HEATING
SCT050-060. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING BUT LIKELY STAY
4-7 5 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...CAUTION STATEMENTS RAISED FOR NC WATERS.
20 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INSHORE WITH A NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-5 FEET AND
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE TIED WITH
WINDS...SO SHORT WAVELENGTHS AND STEEP SEAS WILL BE THE RULE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. WINDS SPEEDS FROM THE NW SHOULD
EASE TO 15 HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GUSTY NW SURGE WEARS
OFF A LITTLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE
COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING
TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP
IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...8/RAN
MARINE...8/3











000
FXUS62 KILM 220955
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...LOCAL RADAR WIND PROFILE CLOCKING 30 TO
40 KT N WIND BARBS 1-2 KFT OFF THE SURFACE RESPECTIVELY...AS A
SPOKE OF CYCLONIC ENERGY ROTATES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW. ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE DAYBREAK
INCLUDE TRIMMING MAXIMUMS A DEGREE BASED ON RECENT GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM N TO S IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TODAY. WILL ALSO REDUCE CLOUD COVER A FEW TICKS WITH
LITTLE AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED IN THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUNNY COOL AND BREEZY DAY TO KICK OFF WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT OFFSHORE AND HAS ALLOWED STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BARGE INTO THE AREA. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
BREWING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE N OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

BRISK AND DEEP NW FLOW TO ENVELOP THE REGION WITH DRYING IN MID
AND LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH H8 MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO DIURNAL SFC
HEATING TO COOK A FEW CUMULUS AT 5-6 KFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC
INTERIOR...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SCOPE.

MAXIMUMS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WIND-CHILL TO BOOT THIS MORNING. FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WIND TRAJECTORIES HOWEVER SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT WARM-UP
DESPITE THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND GENERALLY A 68-72
DEGREE RANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. WARM ICW WATERS IN NW
WIND COULD WARM PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL STRIPS A LITTLE HIGHER.

TONIGHT A CHILLY ONE UNDER CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR...BUT NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE NW WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES OF 40-45 DEGREES EXPECTED...WITH
WIND CHILLS AT FIRST LIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION
PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT
BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS
TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR INTRUSIONS
WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAT NIGHT
CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO. DEVELOPMENT OF
RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE N AFT 6Z ACCOMPANIED BY
SCT-BKN070. NNW GUSTS TO 24KT AFT 14Z. CLEARING TO VFR AFTER 9Z
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. SCATTERED CU POSSIBLE WITH AFTN HEATING
SCT050-060. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING BUT LIKELY STAY
4-7 5 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...CAUTION STATEMENTS RAISED FOR NC WATERS.
20 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INSHORE WITH A NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-5 FEET AND
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE TIED WITH
WINDS...SO SHORT WAVELENGTHS AND STEEP SEAS WILL BE THE RULE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. WINDS SPEEDS FROM THE NW SHOULD
EASE TO 15 HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GUSTY NW SURGE WEARS
OFF A LITTLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE
COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING
TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP
IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KILM 220955
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...LOCAL RADAR WIND PROFILE CLOCKING 30 TO
40 KT N WIND BARBS 1-2 KFT OFF THE SURFACE RESPECTIVELY...AS A
SPOKE OF CYCLONIC ENERGY ROTATES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW. ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE DAYBREAK
INCLUDE TRIMMING MAXIMUMS A DEGREE BASED ON RECENT GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM N TO S IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TODAY. WILL ALSO REDUCE CLOUD COVER A FEW TICKS WITH
LITTLE AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED IN THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUNNY COOL AND BREEZY DAY TO KICK OFF WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT OFFSHORE AND HAS ALLOWED STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BARGE INTO THE AREA. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
BREWING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE N OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

BRISK AND DEEP NW FLOW TO ENVELOP THE REGION WITH DRYING IN MID
AND LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH H8 MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO DIURNAL SFC
HEATING TO COOK A FEW CUMULUS AT 5-6 KFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC
INTERIOR...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SCOPE.

MAXIMUMS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WIND-CHILL TO BOOT THIS MORNING. FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WIND TRAJECTORIES HOWEVER SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT WARM-UP
DESPITE THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND GENERALLY A 68-72
DEGREE RANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. WARM ICW WATERS IN NW
WIND COULD WARM PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL STRIPS A LITTLE HIGHER.

TONIGHT A CHILLY ONE UNDER CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR...BUT NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE NW WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES OF 40-45 DEGREES EXPECTED...WITH
WIND CHILLS AT FIRST LIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION
PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT
BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS
TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR INTRUSIONS
WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAT NIGHT
CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO. DEVELOPMENT OF
RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE N AFT 6Z ACCOMPANIED BY
SCT-BKN070. NNW GUSTS TO 24KT AFT 14Z. CLEARING TO VFR AFTER 9Z
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. SCATTERED CU POSSIBLE WITH AFTN HEATING
SCT050-060. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING BUT LIKELY STAY
4-7 5 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...CAUTION STATEMENTS RAISED FOR NC WATERS.
20 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INSHORE WITH A NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-5 FEET AND
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE TIED WITH
WINDS...SO SHORT WAVELENGTHS AND STEEP SEAS WILL BE THE RULE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. WINDS SPEEDS FROM THE NW SHOULD
EASE TO 15 HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GUSTY NW SURGE WEARS
OFF A LITTLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE
COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING
TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP
IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...
MARINE...








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