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000
FXUS62 KILM 171732
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH
PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WE
ARE NOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE DELAYED HEATING IN SOME LOCATIONS AND
RESULTED IN DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...THESE LOW
CLOUDS ARE TRANSITORY. WE EXPECT CUMULUS TO BEGIN BUILDING AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STILL A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE BETWEEN
2-12 KFT. ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LEVEL...THE COLUMN IS MUCH DRIER.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME BUILDING TO A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH. HOWEVER...IT ALSO
IMPLIES THAT STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPE
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...LOW WET BULB ZEROS AND
LOW 50 DBZ CORE THRESHOLDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO ATTAIN ADEQUATE HEIGHT. GIVEN THERE
WILL BE SOME ADDED LIFT AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA IN
NW FLOW NEAR PEAK HEATING...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 40 PERCENT
THROUGHOUT. AS HEATING DIMINISHES THIS EVE...SO SHOULD THE
CONVECTION. WILL SHOW POPS DECREASING FROM W TO E TONIGHT...LASTLY
ALONG THE COAST...AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WANES.

FOG/STRATUS MAY AGAIN FILL IN OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING AS A
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPS MOISTURE BELOW 1 KFT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED INLAND.

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA...THIS
WILL BE OFFSET BY PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT
IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WILL
FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 60S WITH SEVERAL INLAND COMMUNITIES
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S WHILE SEVERAL BEACH COMMUNITIES ONLY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THU WILL
SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND FRI...SETTING UP A CLASSIC WEDGE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW THU AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SUNSHINE BUT INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
RATHER LIMITED EACH DAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING THE MID
LEVELS DRY. THE ONLY REAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY FRI...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD DEVELOP. MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO COME BY EVEN IF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS SO PLAN TO CONTINUE CARRYING
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST WITH POP AROUND 10 INLAND.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER INLAND HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN AND A LITTLE LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL END UP A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL HOLD ON INTO AT LEAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS THE WEDGE COULD HOLD ON INTO MON GIVEN THE
LACK OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...INTO NEXT WEEK.
FARTHER INLAND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A NARROW GRADIENT BETWEEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS IS COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
POTENTIAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT STALLED
OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES UP THE
COAST BEFORE HELPING TO BREAK THE WEDGE AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH MANY OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEPING THIS FEATURE ON THE WEAK SIDE AND
FARTHER OFF THE COAST.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MON...DRIVEN SOUTH BY
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. FROPA DURING THE DAY MON WILL HAVE SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...BUT HOW MUCH REMAINS A QUESTION.
EXPECT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WILL
PARTLY DEPEND ON TIMING. FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKS COLD FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS AT
KLBT. AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE DAY COUPLED WITH PEAK
HEATING. ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP...WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE KILM WILL EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM BY 21Z. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

BY MIDNIGHT IFR/LIFR STRATUS/VSBYS WILL BE AN INCREASING CONCERN.
ALL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWEST CONFIDENCE AT KLBT. CIGS RISE
TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE
COOL AIR WEDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 10 KT OR LESS AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK. EASTERLY SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE WIND SPEEDS WOULD
OTHERWISE INDICATE. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME 5 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. THE SWELL PERIOD WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THU WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THU NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN THE REALM OF
10 KT BUT BY MIDDAY FRI SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU FLIRTS WITH HEADLINE CRITERIA FRI...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6 FT
ACROSS PARTS OF NC WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN 15 TO 20
KT WINDS SAT BUT WEAKENING GRADIENT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION
IN SPEEDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS SUN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LOW SUN NIGHT LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT POSSIBLE SAT DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/RJD






000
FXUS62 KILM 171732
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH
PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WE
ARE NOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE DELAYED HEATING IN SOME LOCATIONS AND
RESULTED IN DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...THESE LOW
CLOUDS ARE TRANSITORY. WE EXPECT CUMULUS TO BEGIN BUILDING AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STILL A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE BETWEEN
2-12 KFT. ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LEVEL...THE COLUMN IS MUCH DRIER.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME BUILDING TO A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH. HOWEVER...IT ALSO
IMPLIES THAT STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPE
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...LOW WET BULB ZEROS AND
LOW 50 DBZ CORE THRESHOLDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO ATTAIN ADEQUATE HEIGHT. GIVEN THERE
WILL BE SOME ADDED LIFT AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA IN
NW FLOW NEAR PEAK HEATING...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 40 PERCENT
THROUGHOUT. AS HEATING DIMINISHES THIS EVE...SO SHOULD THE
CONVECTION. WILL SHOW POPS DECREASING FROM W TO E TONIGHT...LASTLY
ALONG THE COAST...AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WANES.

FOG/STRATUS MAY AGAIN FILL IN OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING AS A
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPS MOISTURE BELOW 1 KFT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED INLAND.

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA...THIS
WILL BE OFFSET BY PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT
IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WILL
FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 60S WITH SEVERAL INLAND COMMUNITIES
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S WHILE SEVERAL BEACH COMMUNITIES ONLY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THU WILL
SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND FRI...SETTING UP A CLASSIC WEDGE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW THU AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SUNSHINE BUT INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
RATHER LIMITED EACH DAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING THE MID
LEVELS DRY. THE ONLY REAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY FRI...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD DEVELOP. MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO COME BY EVEN IF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS SO PLAN TO CONTINUE CARRYING
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST WITH POP AROUND 10 INLAND.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER INLAND HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN AND A LITTLE LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL END UP A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL HOLD ON INTO AT LEAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS THE WEDGE COULD HOLD ON INTO MON GIVEN THE
LACK OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...INTO NEXT WEEK.
FARTHER INLAND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A NARROW GRADIENT BETWEEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS IS COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
POTENTIAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT STALLED
OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES UP THE
COAST BEFORE HELPING TO BREAK THE WEDGE AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH MANY OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEPING THIS FEATURE ON THE WEAK SIDE AND
FARTHER OFF THE COAST.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MON...DRIVEN SOUTH BY
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. FROPA DURING THE DAY MON WILL HAVE SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...BUT HOW MUCH REMAINS A QUESTION.
EXPECT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WILL
PARTLY DEPEND ON TIMING. FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKS COLD FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS AT
KLBT. AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE DAY COUPLED WITH PEAK
HEATING. ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP...WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE KILM WILL EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM BY 21Z. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

BY MIDNIGHT IFR/LIFR STRATUS/VSBYS WILL BE AN INCREASING CONCERN.
ALL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWEST CONFIDENCE AT KLBT. CIGS RISE
TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE
COOL AIR WEDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 10 KT OR LESS AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK. EASTERLY SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE WIND SPEEDS WOULD
OTHERWISE INDICATE. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME 5 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. THE SWELL PERIOD WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THU WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THU NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN THE REALM OF
10 KT BUT BY MIDDAY FRI SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU FLIRTS WITH HEADLINE CRITERIA FRI...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6 FT
ACROSS PARTS OF NC WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN 15 TO 20
KT WINDS SAT BUT WEAKENING GRADIENT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION
IN SPEEDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS SUN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LOW SUN NIGHT LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT POSSIBLE SAT DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/RJD







000
FXUS62 KILM 171530
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1129 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH
PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WE
ARE NOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE DELAYED HEATING IN SOME LOCATIONS AND
RESULTED IN DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...THESE LOW
CLOUDS ARE TRANSITORY. WE EXPECT CUMULUS TO BEGIN BUILDING AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STILL A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE BETWEEN
2-12 KFT. ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LEVEL...THE COLUMN IS MUCH DRIER.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME BUILDING TO A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH. HOWEVER...IT ALSO
IMPLIES THAT STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPE
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...LOW WET BULB ZEROS AND
LOW 50 DBZ CORE THRESHOLDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO ATTAIN ADEQUATE HEIGHT. GIVEN THERE
WILL BE SOME ADDED LIFT AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA IN
NW FLOW NEAR PEAK HEATING...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 40 PERCENT
THROUGHOUT. AS HEATING DIMINISHES THIS EVE...SO SHOULD THE
CONVECTION. WILL SHOW POPS DECREASING FROM W TO E TONIGHT...LASTLY
ALONG THE COAST...AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WANES.

FOG/STRATUS MAY AGAIN FILL IN OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING AS A
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPS MOISTURE BELOW 1 KFT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED INLAND.

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA...THIS
WILL BE OFFSET BY PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT
IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WILL
FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 60S WITH SEVERAL INLAND COMMUNITIES
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S WHILE SEVERAL BEACH COMMUNITIES ONLY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THU WILL
SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND FRI...SETTING UP A CLASSIC WEDGE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW THU AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SUNSHINE BUT INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
RATHER LIMITED EACH DAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING THE MID
LEVELS DRY. THE ONLY REAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY FRI...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD DEVELOP. MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO COME BY EVEN IF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS SO PLAN TO CONTINUE CARRYING
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST WITH POP AROUND 10 INLAND.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER INLAND HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN AND A LITTLE LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL END UP A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL HOLD ON INTO AT LEAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS THE WEDGE COULD HOLD ON INTO MON GIVEN THE
LACK OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...INTO NEXT WEEK.
FARTHER INLAND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A NARROW GRADIENT BETWEEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS IS COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
POTENTIAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT STALLED
OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES UP THE
COAST BEFORE HELPING TO BREAK THE WEDGE AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH MANY OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEPING THIS FEATURE ON THE WEAK SIDE AND
FARTHER OFF THE COAST.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MON...DRIVEN SOUTH BY
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. FROPA DURING THE DAY MON WILL HAVE SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...BUT HOW MUCH REMAINS A QUESTION.
EXPECT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WILL
PARTLY DEPEND ON TIMING. FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKS COLD FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
WILL BE AT KLBT/KILM. SOME PATCHY IFR STRATUS IS ALSO OCCURRING
NORTH OF KLBT/KILM AND COULD SPREAD INTO THESE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP...BUT THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE KILM WILL
EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

BY MIDNIGHT IFR/LIFR STRATUS/VSBYS WILL BE AN INCREASING CONCERN.
ALL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE
THAT IFR...MUCH LESS LIFR WILL OCCUR AS NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS CONDITIONS NOT AS LOW...WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT AS MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 10 KT OR LESS AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK. EASTERLY SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE WIND SPEEDS WOULD
OTHERWISE INDICATE. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME 5 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. THE SWELL PERIOD WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THU WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THU NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN THE REALM OF
10 KT BUT BY MIDDAY FRI SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU FLIRTS WITH HEADLINE CRITERIA FRI...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6 FT
ACROSS PARTS OF NC WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN 15 TO 20
KT WINDS SAT BUT WEAKENING GRADIENT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION
IN SPEEDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS SUN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LOW SUN NIGHT LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT POSSIBLE SAT DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR











000
FXUS62 KILM 171530
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1129 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH
PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WE
ARE NOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE DELAYED HEATING IN SOME LOCATIONS AND
RESULTED IN DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...THESE LOW
CLOUDS ARE TRANSITORY. WE EXPECT CUMULUS TO BEGIN BUILDING AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STILL A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE BETWEEN
2-12 KFT. ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LEVEL...THE COLUMN IS MUCH DRIER.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME BUILDING TO A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH. HOWEVER...IT ALSO
IMPLIES THAT STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPE
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...LOW WET BULB ZEROS AND
LOW 50 DBZ CORE THRESHOLDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO ATTAIN ADEQUATE HEIGHT. GIVEN THERE
WILL BE SOME ADDED LIFT AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA IN
NW FLOW NEAR PEAK HEATING...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 40 PERCENT
THROUGHOUT. AS HEATING DIMINISHES THIS EVE...SO SHOULD THE
CONVECTION. WILL SHOW POPS DECREASING FROM W TO E TONIGHT...LASTLY
ALONG THE COAST...AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WANES.

FOG/STRATUS MAY AGAIN FILL IN OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING AS A
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPS MOISTURE BELOW 1 KFT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED INLAND.

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA...THIS
WILL BE OFFSET BY PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT
IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WILL
FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 60S WITH SEVERAL INLAND COMMUNITIES
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S WHILE SEVERAL BEACH COMMUNITIES ONLY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THU WILL
SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND FRI...SETTING UP A CLASSIC WEDGE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW THU AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SUNSHINE BUT INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
RATHER LIMITED EACH DAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING THE MID
LEVELS DRY. THE ONLY REAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY FRI...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD DEVELOP. MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO COME BY EVEN IF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS SO PLAN TO CONTINUE CARRYING
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST WITH POP AROUND 10 INLAND.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER INLAND HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN AND A LITTLE LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL END UP A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL HOLD ON INTO AT LEAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS THE WEDGE COULD HOLD ON INTO MON GIVEN THE
LACK OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...INTO NEXT WEEK.
FARTHER INLAND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A NARROW GRADIENT BETWEEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS IS COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
POTENTIAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT STALLED
OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES UP THE
COAST BEFORE HELPING TO BREAK THE WEDGE AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH MANY OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEPING THIS FEATURE ON THE WEAK SIDE AND
FARTHER OFF THE COAST.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MON...DRIVEN SOUTH BY
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. FROPA DURING THE DAY MON WILL HAVE SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...BUT HOW MUCH REMAINS A QUESTION.
EXPECT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WILL
PARTLY DEPEND ON TIMING. FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKS COLD FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
WILL BE AT KLBT/KILM. SOME PATCHY IFR STRATUS IS ALSO OCCURRING
NORTH OF KLBT/KILM AND COULD SPREAD INTO THESE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP...BUT THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE KILM WILL
EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

BY MIDNIGHT IFR/LIFR STRATUS/VSBYS WILL BE AN INCREASING CONCERN.
ALL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE
THAT IFR...MUCH LESS LIFR WILL OCCUR AS NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS CONDITIONS NOT AS LOW...WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT AS MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 10 KT OR LESS AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK. EASTERLY SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE WIND SPEEDS WOULD
OTHERWISE INDICATE. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME 5 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. THE SWELL PERIOD WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THU WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THU NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN THE REALM OF
10 KT BUT BY MIDDAY FRI SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU FLIRTS WITH HEADLINE CRITERIA FRI...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6 FT
ACROSS PARTS OF NC WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN 15 TO 20
KT WINDS SAT BUT WEAKENING GRADIENT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION
IN SPEEDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS SUN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LOW SUN NIGHT LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT POSSIBLE SAT DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR












000
FXUS62 KILM 171151
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
751 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HS MOSTLY PETERED
OUT THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED OUT. HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS MORNING...REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS INTACT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS MOVING EAST AND TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
STRATIFORM EVENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE.
HOWEVER..THERE IS STILL SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE IMPINGES UPON THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...LIKELY OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING.

A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE JUMPS FRONT OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK AS CYCLOGENESIS STRENGTHENS OFF THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SEASONALLY COOL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S UP NORTH TO THE MID
80S FURTHER SOUTH. WILL RETAIN THE LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
AND THIS EVENING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER IMPULSES DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE H/5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
LINGERING OVER EASTERN CONUS. A ADDITIONAL FACTOR FAVORING
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING FROM
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT RIDING OVER EASTERLY WINDS BELOW.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SEASONAL VEIN...WITH LOW RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THU WILL
SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND FRI...SETTING UP A CLASSIC WEDGE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW THU AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SUNSHINE BUT INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
RATHER LIMITED EACH DAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING THE MID
LEVELS DRY. THE ONLY REAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY FRI...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD DEVELOP. MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO COME BY EVEN IF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS SO PLAN TO CONTINUE CARRYING
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST WITH POP AROUND 10 INLAND.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER INLAND HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN AND A LITTLE LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL END UP A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL HOLD ON INTO AT LEAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS THE WEDGE COULD HOLD ON INTO MON GIVEN THE
LACK OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...INTO NEXT WEEK.
FARTHER INLAND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A NARROW GRADIENT BETWEEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS IS COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
POTENTIAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT STALLED
OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES UP THE
COAST BEFORE HELPING TO BREAK THE WEDGE AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH MANY OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEPING THIS FEATURE ON THE WEAK SIDE AND
FARTHER OFF THE COAST.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MON...DRIVEN SOUTH BY
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. FROPA DURING THE DAY MON WILL HAVE SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...BUT HOW MUCH REMAINS A QUESTION.
EXPECT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WILL
PARTLY DEPEND ON TIMING. FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKS COLD FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
WILL BE AT KLBT/KILM. SOME PATCHY IFR STRATUS IS ALSO OCCURRING
NORTH OF KLBT/KILM AND COULD SPREAD INTO THESE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP...BUT THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE KILM WILL
EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

BY MIDNIGHT IFR/LIFR STRATUS/VSBYS WILL BE AN INCREASING CONCERN.
ALL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE
THAT IFR...MUCH LESS LIFR WILL OCCUR AS NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS CONDITIONS NOT AS LOW...WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT AS MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. WIND WAVES WILL BE IN THE MODEST 1 TO 2 FT RANGE...BUT
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
EDOUARD...BRINGING A COMBINED SEA HEIGHT RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THU WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THU NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN THE REALM OF
10 KT BUT BY MIDDAY FRI SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU FLIRTS WITH HEADLINE CRITERIA FRI...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6 FT
ACROSS PARTS OF NC WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN 15 TO 20
KT WINDS SAT BUT WEAKENING GRADIENT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION
IN SPEEDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS SUN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LOW SUN NIGHT LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT POSSIBLE SAT DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/III









000
FXUS62 KILM 171151
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
751 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HS MOSTLY PETERED
OUT THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED OUT. HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS MORNING...REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS INTACT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS MOVING EAST AND TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
STRATIFORM EVENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE.
HOWEVER..THERE IS STILL SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE IMPINGES UPON THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...LIKELY OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING.

A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE JUMPS FRONT OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK AS CYCLOGENESIS STRENGTHENS OFF THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SEASONALLY COOL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S UP NORTH TO THE MID
80S FURTHER SOUTH. WILL RETAIN THE LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
AND THIS EVENING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER IMPULSES DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE H/5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
LINGERING OVER EASTERN CONUS. A ADDITIONAL FACTOR FAVORING
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING FROM
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT RIDING OVER EASTERLY WINDS BELOW.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SEASONAL VEIN...WITH LOW RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THU WILL
SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND FRI...SETTING UP A CLASSIC WEDGE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW THU AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SUNSHINE BUT INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
RATHER LIMITED EACH DAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING THE MID
LEVELS DRY. THE ONLY REAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY FRI...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD DEVELOP. MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO COME BY EVEN IF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS SO PLAN TO CONTINUE CARRYING
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST WITH POP AROUND 10 INLAND.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER INLAND HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN AND A LITTLE LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL END UP A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL HOLD ON INTO AT LEAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS THE WEDGE COULD HOLD ON INTO MON GIVEN THE
LACK OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...INTO NEXT WEEK.
FARTHER INLAND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A NARROW GRADIENT BETWEEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS IS COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
POTENTIAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT STALLED
OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES UP THE
COAST BEFORE HELPING TO BREAK THE WEDGE AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH MANY OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEPING THIS FEATURE ON THE WEAK SIDE AND
FARTHER OFF THE COAST.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MON...DRIVEN SOUTH BY
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. FROPA DURING THE DAY MON WILL HAVE SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...BUT HOW MUCH REMAINS A QUESTION.
EXPECT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WILL
PARTLY DEPEND ON TIMING. FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKS COLD FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
WILL BE AT KLBT/KILM. SOME PATCHY IFR STRATUS IS ALSO OCCURRING
NORTH OF KLBT/KILM AND COULD SPREAD INTO THESE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP...BUT THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE KILM WILL
EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

BY MIDNIGHT IFR/LIFR STRATUS/VSBYS WILL BE AN INCREASING CONCERN.
ALL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE
THAT IFR...MUCH LESS LIFR WILL OCCUR AS NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS CONDITIONS NOT AS LOW...WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT AS MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. WIND WAVES WILL BE IN THE MODEST 1 TO 2 FT RANGE...BUT
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
EDOUARD...BRINGING A COMBINED SEA HEIGHT RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THU WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THU NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN THE REALM OF
10 KT BUT BY MIDDAY FRI SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU FLIRTS WITH HEADLINE CRITERIA FRI...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6 FT
ACROSS PARTS OF NC WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN 15 TO 20
KT WINDS SAT BUT WEAKENING GRADIENT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION
IN SPEEDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS SUN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LOW SUN NIGHT LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT POSSIBLE SAT DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/III








000
FXUS62 KILM 171011
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
611 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HS MOSTLY PETERED
OUT THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED OUT. HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS MORNING...REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS INTACT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS MOVING EAST AND TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
STRATIFORM EVENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE.
HOWEVER..THERE IS STILL SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE IMPINGES UPON THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...LIKELY OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING.

A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE JUMPS FRONT OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK AS CYCLOGENESIS STRENGTHENS OFF THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SEASONALLY COOL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S UP NORTH TO THE MID
80S FURTHER SOUTH. WILL RETAIN THE LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
AND THIS EVENING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER IMPULSES DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE H/5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
LINGERING OVER EASTERN CONUS. A ADDITIONAL FACTOR FAVORING
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING FROM
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT RIDING OVER EASTERLY WINDS BELOW.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SEASONAL VEIN...WITH LOW RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THU WILL
SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND FRI...SETTING UP A CLASSIC WEDGE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW THU AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SUNSHINE BUT INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
RATHER LIMITED EACH DAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING THE MID
LEVELS DRY. THE ONLY REAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY FRI...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD DEVELOP. MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO COME BY EVEN IF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS SO PLAN TO CONTINUE CARRYING
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST WITH POP AROUND 10 INLAND.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER INLAND HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN AND A LITTLE LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL END UP A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL HOLD ON INTO AT LEAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS THE WEDGE COULD HOLD ON INTO MON GIVEN THE
LACK OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...INTO NEXT WEEK.
FARTHER INLAND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A NARROW GRADIENT BETWEEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS IS COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
POTENTIAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT STALLED
OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES UP THE
COAST BEFORE HELPING TO BREAK THE WEDGE AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH MANY OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEPING THIS FEATURE ON THE WEAK SIDE AND
FARTHER OFF THE COAST.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MON...DRIVEN SOUTH BY
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. FROPA DURING THE DAY MON WILL HAVE SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...BUT HOW MUCH REMAINS A QUESTION.
EXPECT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WILL
PARTLY DEPEND ON TIMING. FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKS COLD FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR SUGGESTS SLOW-MOVING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY STILL PLAGUE OUR INLAND TAF SITES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR KFLO/KLBT
FROM 06-08Z. INCREASING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. HAVE JUST INCLUDED TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS... MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE AFTER 09Z OR SO SHOULD MIX OUT ANY LINGERING BR. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT IFR
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW EVEN FOR THE INLAND TERMS. MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. EXPECT NE WINDS AOB 10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. WIND WAVES WILL BE IN THE MODEST 1 TO 2 FT RANGE...BUT
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
EDOUARD...BRINGING A COMBINED SEA HEIGHT RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THU WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THU NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN THE REALM OF
10 KT BUT BY MIDDAY FRI SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU FLIRTS WITH HEADLINE CRITERIA FRI...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6 FT
ACROSS PARTS OF NC WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN 15 TO 20
KT WINDS SAT BUT WEAKENING GRADIENT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION
IN SPEEDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS SUN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LOW SUN NIGHT LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT POSSIBLE SAT DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/III





000
FXUS62 KILM 171011
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
611 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HS MOSTLY PETERED
OUT THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED OUT. HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS MORNING...REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS INTACT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS MOVING EAST AND TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
STRATIFORM EVENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE.
HOWEVER..THERE IS STILL SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE IMPINGES UPON THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...LIKELY OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING.

A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE JUMPS FRONT OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK AS CYCLOGENESIS STRENGTHENS OFF THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SEASONALLY COOL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S UP NORTH TO THE MID
80S FURTHER SOUTH. WILL RETAIN THE LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
AND THIS EVENING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER IMPULSES DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE H/5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
LINGERING OVER EASTERN CONUS. A ADDITIONAL FACTOR FAVORING
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING FROM
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT RIDING OVER EASTERLY WINDS BELOW.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SEASONAL VEIN...WITH LOW RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THU WILL
SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND FRI...SETTING UP A CLASSIC WEDGE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW THU AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SUNSHINE BUT INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
RATHER LIMITED EACH DAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING THE MID
LEVELS DRY. THE ONLY REAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY FRI...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD DEVELOP. MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO COME BY EVEN IF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS SO PLAN TO CONTINUE CARRYING
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST WITH POP AROUND 10 INLAND.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER INLAND HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN AND A LITTLE LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL END UP A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL HOLD ON INTO AT LEAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS THE WEDGE COULD HOLD ON INTO MON GIVEN THE
LACK OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...INTO NEXT WEEK.
FARTHER INLAND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A NARROW GRADIENT BETWEEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS IS COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
POTENTIAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT STALLED
OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES UP THE
COAST BEFORE HELPING TO BREAK THE WEDGE AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH MANY OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEPING THIS FEATURE ON THE WEAK SIDE AND
FARTHER OFF THE COAST.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MON...DRIVEN SOUTH BY
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. FROPA DURING THE DAY MON WILL HAVE SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...BUT HOW MUCH REMAINS A QUESTION.
EXPECT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WILL
PARTLY DEPEND ON TIMING. FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKS COLD FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR SUGGESTS SLOW-MOVING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY STILL PLAGUE OUR INLAND TAF SITES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR KFLO/KLBT
FROM 06-08Z. INCREASING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. HAVE JUST INCLUDED TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS... MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE AFTER 09Z OR SO SHOULD MIX OUT ANY LINGERING BR. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT IFR
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW EVEN FOR THE INLAND TERMS. MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. EXPECT NE WINDS AOB 10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. WIND WAVES WILL BE IN THE MODEST 1 TO 2 FT RANGE...BUT
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
EDOUARD...BRINGING A COMBINED SEA HEIGHT RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THU WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THU NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN THE REALM OF
10 KT BUT BY MIDDAY FRI SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU FLIRTS WITH HEADLINE CRITERIA FRI...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6 FT
ACROSS PARTS OF NC WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN 15 TO 20
KT WINDS SAT BUT WEAKENING GRADIENT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION
IN SPEEDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS SUN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LOW SUN NIGHT LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT POSSIBLE SAT DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/III






000
FXUS62 KILM 170720
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS MOVING EAST AND
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE STRATIFORM EVENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. HOWEVER..THERE IS STILL SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IMPINGES UPON
THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
FRONT...LIKELY OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING.

A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE JUMPS FRONT OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK AS CYCLOGENESIS STRENGTHENS OFF THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SEASONALLY COOL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S UP NORTH TO THE MID
80S FURTHER SOUTH. WILL RETAIN THE LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
AND THIS EVENING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER IMPULSES DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE H/5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
LINGERING OVER EASTERN CONUS. A ADDITIONAL FACTOR FAVORING
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING FROM
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT RIDING OVER EASTERLY WINDS BELOW.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SEASONAL VEIN...WITH LOW RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THU WILL
SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND FRI...SETTING UP A CLASSIC WEDGE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW THU AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SUNSHINE BUT INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
RATHER LIMITED EACH DAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING THE MID
LEVELS DRY. THE ONLY REAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY FRI...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD DEVELOP. MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO COME BY EVEN IF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS SO PLAN TO CONTINUE CARRYING
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST WITH POP AROUND 10 INLAND.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER INLAND HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN AND A LITTLE LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL END UP A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL HOLD ON INTO AT LEAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS THE WEDGE COULD HOLD ON INTO MON GIVEN THE
LACK OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...INTO NEXT WEEK.
FARTHER INLAND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A NARROW GRADIENT BETWEEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS IS COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
POTENTIAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT STALLED
OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES UP THE
COAST BEFORE HELPING TO BREAK THE WEDGE AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH MANY OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEPING THIS FEATURE ON THE WEAK SIDE AND
FARTHER OFF THE COAST.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MON...DRIVEN SOUTH BY
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. FROPA DURING THE DAY MON WILL HAVE SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...BUT HOW MUCH REMAINS A QUESTION.
EXPECT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WILL
PARTLY DEPEND ON TIMING. FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKS COLD FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR SUGGESTS SLOW-MOVING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY STILL PLAGUE OUR INLAND TAF SITES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR KFLO/KLBT
FROM 06-08Z. INCREASING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. HAVE JUST INCLUDED TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS... MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE AFTER 09Z OR SO SHOULD MIX OUT ANY LINGERING BR. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT IFR
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW EVEN FOR THE INLAND TERMS. MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. EXPECT NE WINDS AOB 10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF
AROUND 10 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WIND WAVES WILL BE IN THE
MODEST 1 TO 2 FT RANGE...BUT WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY SWELL FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD...BRINGING A COMBINED SEA HEIGHT RANGING
FROM 2 TO 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY....LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THU WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THU NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN THE REALM OF
10 KT BUT BY MIDDAY FRI SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU FLIRTS WITH HEADLINE CRITERIA FRI...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6 FT
ACROSS PARTS OF NC WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY....ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN 15 TO 20
KT WINDS SAT BUT WEAKENING GRADIENT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION
IN SPEEDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS SUN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LOW SUN NIGHT LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT POSSIBLE SAT DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 170720
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS MOVING EAST AND
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE STRATIFORM EVENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. HOWEVER..THERE IS STILL SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IMPINGES UPON
THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
FRONT...LIKELY OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING.

A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE JUMPS FRONT OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK AS CYCLOGENESIS STRENGTHENS OFF THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SEASONALLY COOL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S UP NORTH TO THE MID
80S FURTHER SOUTH. WILL RETAIN THE LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
AND THIS EVENING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER IMPULSES DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE H/5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
LINGERING OVER EASTERN CONUS. A ADDITIONAL FACTOR FAVORING
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING FROM
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT RIDING OVER EASTERLY WINDS BELOW.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SEASONAL VEIN...WITH LOW RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THU WILL
SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND FRI...SETTING UP A CLASSIC WEDGE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW THU AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SUNSHINE BUT INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
RATHER LIMITED EACH DAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING THE MID
LEVELS DRY. THE ONLY REAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY FRI...AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD DEVELOP. MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO COME BY EVEN IF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS SO PLAN TO CONTINUE CARRYING
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST WITH POP AROUND 10 INLAND.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER INLAND HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN AND A LITTLE LESS MARINE
INFLUENCE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL END UP A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL HOLD ON INTO AT LEAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS THE WEDGE COULD HOLD ON INTO MON GIVEN THE
LACK OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...INTO NEXT WEEK.
FARTHER INLAND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A NARROW GRADIENT BETWEEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS IS COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
POTENTIAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT STALLED
OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES UP THE
COAST BEFORE HELPING TO BREAK THE WEDGE AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH MANY OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEPING THIS FEATURE ON THE WEAK SIDE AND
FARTHER OFF THE COAST.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MON...DRIVEN SOUTH BY
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. FROPA DURING THE DAY MON WILL HAVE SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...BUT HOW MUCH REMAINS A QUESTION.
EXPECT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WILL
PARTLY DEPEND ON TIMING. FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKS COLD FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR SUGGESTS SLOW-MOVING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY STILL PLAGUE OUR INLAND TAF SITES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR KFLO/KLBT
FROM 06-08Z. INCREASING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. HAVE JUST INCLUDED TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS... MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE AFTER 09Z OR SO SHOULD MIX OUT ANY LINGERING BR. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT IFR
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW EVEN FOR THE INLAND TERMS. MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. EXPECT NE WINDS AOB 10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF
AROUND 10 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WIND WAVES WILL BE IN THE
MODEST 1 TO 2 FT RANGE...BUT WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY SWELL FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD...BRINGING A COMBINED SEA HEIGHT RANGING
FROM 2 TO 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY....LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THU WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THU NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN THE REALM OF
10 KT BUT BY MIDDAY FRI SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU FLIRTS WITH HEADLINE CRITERIA FRI...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6 FT
ACROSS PARTS OF NC WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY....ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN 15 TO 20
KT WINDS SAT BUT WEAKENING GRADIENT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION
IN SPEEDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS SUN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LOW SUN NIGHT LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT POSSIBLE SAT DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 170519
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:30 AM WEDNESDAY...LINE OF CONVECTION DROPPING FROM THE
NORTH BREAKING UP TO SOME EXTENT AND IS NOT AS STRONG/SOLID AS
BEFORE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

QUITE A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHARLOTTE EASTWARD ACROSS
ROCKINGHAM...FAYETTEVILLE...AND APPROACHING CLINTON. SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED PARCELS ARE CAPPED...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. ELEVATED
CAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CAPPING IS AVAILABLE WHEN
PARCELS AROUND 950-925 MB ARE CONSIDERED. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER STEEP AT 6 DEG C/KM. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS MERGED
INTO A LINE EARLIER THERE WERE HINTS OF SUPER CELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS AS A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR
30 KNOTS.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED 50-100 MILES BEHIND THE
CONVECTION...CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ROW OF
COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH PRESSURES ARE CURRENTLY STEADY
ACROSS THE AREA WE ANTICIPATE FALLING PRESSURES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE SHORTLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. THIS LOW WILL
PULL THE FRONT DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

SINCE THE CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND BASED WITHIN A UNIFORM 950-900
MB LAYER IT SHOULD RESPOND MORE TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING THAN TO
ANYTHING GOING ON HERE AT THE SURFACE. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED NEAR I-77 NORTH OF CHARLOTTE AND SHOULD MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE STORMS DRIFT SOUTH THEY
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHOULD
WEAKEN. THIS IS SHOWN BY THE 23Z RUN OF THE HRRR...WHICH ALSO
INDICATES THE CONVECTION MAY JUMP WILMINGTON AND
SOUTHPORT...REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE AFTER 2-3 A.M. WITHIN A REGION OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE WARM OCEAN WATER.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG LINGERING FRONT
WILL GET PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
TOP OF THE LOW WILL COME UP AGAINST W-NW FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH WED
AND THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND POPS IN FORECAST ON WED. THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND WILL
LIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WED INTO THURS. AS TROUGH AXIS
CROSSES THE COAST EARLY THURS...A DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NE THROUGH LATE THURS. PCP
WATER VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES WED AFTN DOWN CLOSER TO
AN INCH BY THURS EVE. DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WED
AFTN WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THURS. OVERALL EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

AS AIR MASS TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS...SO
WILL THE TEMPS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WED WILL BE WARMER THAN THURS
NIGHT BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MID 60S BOTH NIGHTS. TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE 80S ON WED BUT ON THURS TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER EVEN WITH A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY A LARGE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL HAVE
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE VERY WEAK BUT STILL HAVE SOME SENSE OF TROUGHINESS.
MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME TELLING HOW MUCH THIS TROUGHINESS ERODES
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS
MANAGES TO FLING MOISTURE ASHORE AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE CMC. THE
(00Z) ECMWF DOES THE SAME BUT WITH A MUCH SLOWER SENSE OF TIMING
KEEPING MOST PLACES DRY TIL SUNDAY. WILL SHOW JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THESE DAYS. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO WASH
OUT BY MONDAY AT WHICH TIME RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO BEING TIED TO A
DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL OR HIGHER. A
COLD FRONT APPEARS SLATED FOR A MONDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR SUGGESTS SLOW-MOVING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY STILL PLAGUE OUR INLAND TAF SITES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR KFLO/KLBT
FROM 06-08Z. INCREASING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. HAVE JUST INCLUDED TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS... MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE AFTER 09Z OR SO SHOULD MIX OUT ANY LINGERING BR. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT IFR
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW EVEN FOR THE INLAND TERMS. MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. EXPECT NE WINDS AOB 10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS ACROSS THE NC WATERS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST WITH A MORE VARIABLE PATTERN NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS. PRESSURES SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL SHORTLY ALONG THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THIS LOW WILL PULL THE
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWARD
AND OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN
WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE BEACHES...HOWEVER
CONDITIONS FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE 2-4 AM TIME
FRAME. SEAS CURRENTLY 1-2 FT MAY BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD 3 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS
SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD FINALLY MAKES IT TO THE
COAST.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN E-NE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. INITIALLY WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY. THE ON SHORE FLOW UP TO 10 KTS ON
WED WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16
SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS
IN OUTER WATERS WED AFTN. THE LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM
EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL PEAK AROUND 16
SECONDS VERY EARLY WED AND WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THURS.
SEAS WILL ACTUALLY DROP SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY THURS BUT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NE WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THUR NIGHT SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER SPIKE IN SEAS BY FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE REMINISCENT OF
THE COOL SEASON WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. THE PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT COULD YIELD A FEW ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SEAS INTO NRN
ZONES...BUT WNA GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND IT
MAY BE QUITE MARGINAL. CURRENT FCST STILL SHOWING A RAMP UP TO 4
TO 6 THOUGH. WAVE SHADOWING WILL PRECLUDE ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH. BORDERLINE
SCEC/ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE OVER NRN ZONES INTO SATURDAY. FURTHER
WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIETER CONDITIONS COME
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/MBB/RGZ





000
FXUS62 KILM 170519
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:30 AM WEDNESDAY...LINE OF CONVECTION DROPPING FROM THE
NORTH BREAKING UP TO SOME EXTENT AND IS NOT AS STRONG/SOLID AS
BEFORE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

QUITE A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHARLOTTE EASTWARD ACROSS
ROCKINGHAM...FAYETTEVILLE...AND APPROACHING CLINTON. SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED PARCELS ARE CAPPED...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. ELEVATED
CAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CAPPING IS AVAILABLE WHEN
PARCELS AROUND 950-925 MB ARE CONSIDERED. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER STEEP AT 6 DEG C/KM. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS MERGED
INTO A LINE EARLIER THERE WERE HINTS OF SUPER CELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS AS A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR
30 KNOTS.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED 50-100 MILES BEHIND THE
CONVECTION...CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ROW OF
COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH PRESSURES ARE CURRENTLY STEADY
ACROSS THE AREA WE ANTICIPATE FALLING PRESSURES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE SHORTLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. THIS LOW WILL
PULL THE FRONT DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

SINCE THE CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND BASED WITHIN A UNIFORM 950-900
MB LAYER IT SHOULD RESPOND MORE TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING THAN TO
ANYTHING GOING ON HERE AT THE SURFACE. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED NEAR I-77 NORTH OF CHARLOTTE AND SHOULD MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE STORMS DRIFT SOUTH THEY
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHOULD
WEAKEN. THIS IS SHOWN BY THE 23Z RUN OF THE HRRR...WHICH ALSO
INDICATES THE CONVECTION MAY JUMP WILMINGTON AND
SOUTHPORT...REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE AFTER 2-3 A.M. WITHIN A REGION OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE WARM OCEAN WATER.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG LINGERING FRONT
WILL GET PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
TOP OF THE LOW WILL COME UP AGAINST W-NW FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH WED
AND THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND POPS IN FORECAST ON WED. THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND WILL
LIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WED INTO THURS. AS TROUGH AXIS
CROSSES THE COAST EARLY THURS...A DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NE THROUGH LATE THURS. PCP
WATER VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES WED AFTN DOWN CLOSER TO
AN INCH BY THURS EVE. DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WED
AFTN WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THURS. OVERALL EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

AS AIR MASS TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS...SO
WILL THE TEMPS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WED WILL BE WARMER THAN THURS
NIGHT BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MID 60S BOTH NIGHTS. TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE 80S ON WED BUT ON THURS TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER EVEN WITH A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY A LARGE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL HAVE
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE VERY WEAK BUT STILL HAVE SOME SENSE OF TROUGHINESS.
MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME TELLING HOW MUCH THIS TROUGHINESS ERODES
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS
MANAGES TO FLING MOISTURE ASHORE AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE CMC. THE
(00Z) ECMWF DOES THE SAME BUT WITH A MUCH SLOWER SENSE OF TIMING
KEEPING MOST PLACES DRY TIL SUNDAY. WILL SHOW JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THESE DAYS. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO WASH
OUT BY MONDAY AT WHICH TIME RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO BEING TIED TO A
DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL OR HIGHER. A
COLD FRONT APPEARS SLATED FOR A MONDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR SUGGESTS SLOW-MOVING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY STILL PLAGUE OUR INLAND TAF SITES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR KFLO/KLBT
FROM 06-08Z. INCREASING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. HAVE JUST INCLUDED TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS... MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE AFTER 09Z OR SO SHOULD MIX OUT ANY LINGERING BR. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT IFR
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW EVEN FOR THE INLAND TERMS. MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. EXPECT NE WINDS AOB 10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS ACROSS THE NC WATERS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST WITH A MORE VARIABLE PATTERN NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS. PRESSURES SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL SHORTLY ALONG THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THIS LOW WILL PULL THE
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWARD
AND OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN
WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE BEACHES...HOWEVER
CONDITIONS FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE 2-4 AM TIME
FRAME. SEAS CURRENTLY 1-2 FT MAY BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD 3 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS
SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD FINALLY MAKES IT TO THE
COAST.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN E-NE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. INITIALLY WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY. THE ON SHORE FLOW UP TO 10 KTS ON
WED WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16
SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS
IN OUTER WATERS WED AFTN. THE LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM
EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL PEAK AROUND 16
SECONDS VERY EARLY WED AND WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THURS.
SEAS WILL ACTUALLY DROP SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY THURS BUT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NE WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THUR NIGHT SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER SPIKE IN SEAS BY FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE REMINISCENT OF
THE COOL SEASON WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. THE PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT COULD YIELD A FEW ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SEAS INTO NRN
ZONES...BUT WNA GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND IT
MAY BE QUITE MARGINAL. CURRENT FCST STILL SHOWING A RAMP UP TO 4
TO 6 THOUGH. WAVE SHADOWING WILL PRECLUDE ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH. BORDERLINE
SCEC/ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE OVER NRN ZONES INTO SATURDAY. FURTHER
WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIETER CONDITIONS COME
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/MBB/RGZ






000
FXUS62 KILM 170256
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1056 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...QUITE A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHARLOTTE
EASTWARD ACROSS ROCKINGHAM...FAYETTEVILLE...AND APPROACHING CLINTON.
SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED PARCELS ARE CAPPED...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. ELEVATED
CAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CAPPING IS AVAILABLE WHEN PARCELS
AROUND 950-925 MB ARE CONSIDERED. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
STEEP AT 6 DEG C/KM. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS MERGED INTO A LINE
EARLIER THERE WERE HINTS OF SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS AS A BELT
OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS
PRODUCING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30 KNOTS.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED 50-100 MILES BEHIND THE
CONVECTION...CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ROW OF
COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH PRESSURES ARE CURRENTLY STEADY
ACROSS THE AREA WE ANTICIPATE FALLING PRESSURES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE SHORTLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. THIS LOW WILL
PULL THE FRONT DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

SINCE THE CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND BASED WITHIN A UNIFORM 950-900
MB LAYER IT SHOULD RESPOND MORE TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING THAN TO
ANYTHING GOING ON HERE AT THE SURFACE. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED NEAR I-77 NORTH OF CHARLOTTE AND SHOULD MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE STORMS DRIFT SOUTH THEY
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHOULD
WEAKEN. THIS IS SHOWN BY THE 23Z RUN OF THE HRRR...WHICH ALSO
INDICATES THE CONVECTION MAY JUMP WILMINGTON AND
SOUTHPORT...REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE AFTER 2-3 A.M. WITHIN A REGION OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE WARM OCEAN WATER.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG LINGERING FRONT
WILL GET PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
TOP OF THE LOW WILL COME UP AGAINST W-NW FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH WED
AND THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND POPS IN FORECAST ON WED. THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND WILL
LIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WED INTO THURS. AS TROUGH AXIS
CROSSES THE COAST EARLY THURS...A DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NE THROUGH LATE THURS. PCP
WATER VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES WED AFTN DOWN CLOSER TO
AN INCH BY THURS EVE. DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WED
AFTN WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THURS. OVERALL EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

AS AIR MASS TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS...SO
WILL THE TEMPS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WED WILL BE WARMER THAN THURS
NIGHT BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MID 60S BOTH NIGHTS. TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE 80S ON WED BUT ON THURS TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER EVEN WITH A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY A LARGE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL HAVE
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE VERY WEAK BUT STILL HAVE SOME SENSE OF TROUGHINESS.
MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME TELLING HOW MUCH THIS TROUGHINESS ERODES
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS
MANAGES TO FLING MOISTURE ASHORE AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE CMC. THE
(00Z) ECMWF DOES THE SAME BUT WITH A MUCH SLOWER SENSE OF TIMING
KEEPING MOST PLACES DRY TIL SUNDAY. WILL SHOW JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THESE DAYS. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO WASH
OUT BY MONDAY AT WHICH TIME RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO BEING TIED TO A
DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL OR HIGHER. A
COLD FRONT APPEARS SLATED FOR A MONDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS SOME PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE HRRR HOLDS THIS ACTIVITY TOGETHER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SO
WILL INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS FOR KFLO/KLBT EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS COULD ACCOMPANY ONE OF THESE STORMS IF IT MOVES DIRECTLY
OVER A TAF SITE...BUT COVERAGE IS LIMITED SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
RESTRICTIONS ATTM.

A PERIOD OF CALM WINDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH COULD ALLOW VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR/TEMPO IFR LEVELS IN
BR. THE GFS/NAM DIFFER IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. BUT THE MORE REALISTIC GFS SOLUTION
SHOWS NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KT DEVELOPING BY 09Z WED...WHICH
WOULD HELP MIX THE SFC LAYER AND IMPROVE VSBYS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THUS...THE FOG POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER EARLIER TONIGHT AS
OPPOSED TO THE NORMALLY FAVORED PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS LOWERS MY
CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF IFR VSBYS. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WED
BEFORE CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...WINDS ACROSS THE NC WATERS ARE GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WITH A MORE VARIABLE PATTERN NOTED
ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. PRESSURES SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL
SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THIS LOW
WILL PULL THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWARD AND OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE
BEACHES...HOWEVER CONDITIONS FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN
THE 2-4 AM TIME FRAME. SEAS CURRENTLY 1-2 FT MAY BEGIN TO BUILD
TOWARD 3 FEET ACROSS THE OUTERMOST PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT AS SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD FINALLY MAKES
IT TO THE COAST.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN E-NE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. INITIALLY WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY. THE ON SHORE FLOW UP TO 10 KTS ON
WED WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16
SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS
IN OUTER WATERS WED AFTN. THE LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM
EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL PEAK AROUND 16
SECONDS VERY EARLY WED AND WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THURS.
SEAS WILL ACTUALLY DROP SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY THURS BUT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NE WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THUR NIGHT SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER SPIKE IN SEAS BY FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE REMINISCENT OF
THE COOL SEASON WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. THE PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT COULD YIELD A FEW ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SEAS INTO NRN
ZONES...BUT WNA GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND IT
MAY BE QUITE MARGINAL. CURRENT FCST STILL SHOWING A RAMP UP TO 4
TO 6 THOUGH. WAVE SHADOWING WILL PRECLUDE ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH. BORDERLINE
SCEC/ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE OVER NRN ZONES INTO SATURDAY. FURTHER
WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIETER CONDITIONS COME
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 170256
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1056 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...QUITE A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHARLOTTE
EASTWARD ACROSS ROCKINGHAM...FAYETTEVILLE...AND APPROACHING CLINTON.
SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED PARCELS ARE CAPPED...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. ELEVATED
CAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CAPPING IS AVAILABLE WHEN PARCELS
AROUND 950-925 MB ARE CONSIDERED. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
STEEP AT 6 DEG C/KM. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS MERGED INTO A LINE
EARLIER THERE WERE HINTS OF SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS AS A BELT
OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS
PRODUCING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30 KNOTS.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED 50-100 MILES BEHIND THE
CONVECTION...CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ROW OF
COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH PRESSURES ARE CURRENTLY STEADY
ACROSS THE AREA WE ANTICIPATE FALLING PRESSURES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE SHORTLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. THIS LOW WILL
PULL THE FRONT DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

SINCE THE CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND BASED WITHIN A UNIFORM 950-900
MB LAYER IT SHOULD RESPOND MORE TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING THAN TO
ANYTHING GOING ON HERE AT THE SURFACE. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED NEAR I-77 NORTH OF CHARLOTTE AND SHOULD MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE STORMS DRIFT SOUTH THEY
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHOULD
WEAKEN. THIS IS SHOWN BY THE 23Z RUN OF THE HRRR...WHICH ALSO
INDICATES THE CONVECTION MAY JUMP WILMINGTON AND
SOUTHPORT...REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE AFTER 2-3 A.M. WITHIN A REGION OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE WARM OCEAN WATER.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG LINGERING FRONT
WILL GET PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
TOP OF THE LOW WILL COME UP AGAINST W-NW FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH WED
AND THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND POPS IN FORECAST ON WED. THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND WILL
LIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WED INTO THURS. AS TROUGH AXIS
CROSSES THE COAST EARLY THURS...A DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NE THROUGH LATE THURS. PCP
WATER VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES WED AFTN DOWN CLOSER TO
AN INCH BY THURS EVE. DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WED
AFTN WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THURS. OVERALL EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

AS AIR MASS TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS...SO
WILL THE TEMPS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WED WILL BE WARMER THAN THURS
NIGHT BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MID 60S BOTH NIGHTS. TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE 80S ON WED BUT ON THURS TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER EVEN WITH A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY A LARGE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL HAVE
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE VERY WEAK BUT STILL HAVE SOME SENSE OF TROUGHINESS.
MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME TELLING HOW MUCH THIS TROUGHINESS ERODES
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS
MANAGES TO FLING MOISTURE ASHORE AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE CMC. THE
(00Z) ECMWF DOES THE SAME BUT WITH A MUCH SLOWER SENSE OF TIMING
KEEPING MOST PLACES DRY TIL SUNDAY. WILL SHOW JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THESE DAYS. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO WASH
OUT BY MONDAY AT WHICH TIME RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO BEING TIED TO A
DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL OR HIGHER. A
COLD FRONT APPEARS SLATED FOR A MONDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS SOME PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE HRRR HOLDS THIS ACTIVITY TOGETHER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SO
WILL INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS FOR KFLO/KLBT EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS COULD ACCOMPANY ONE OF THESE STORMS IF IT MOVES DIRECTLY
OVER A TAF SITE...BUT COVERAGE IS LIMITED SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
RESTRICTIONS ATTM.

A PERIOD OF CALM WINDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH COULD ALLOW VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR/TEMPO IFR LEVELS IN
BR. THE GFS/NAM DIFFER IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. BUT THE MORE REALISTIC GFS SOLUTION
SHOWS NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KT DEVELOPING BY 09Z WED...WHICH
WOULD HELP MIX THE SFC LAYER AND IMPROVE VSBYS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THUS...THE FOG POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER EARLIER TONIGHT AS
OPPOSED TO THE NORMALLY FAVORED PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS LOWERS MY
CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF IFR VSBYS. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WED
BEFORE CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...WINDS ACROSS THE NC WATERS ARE GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WITH A MORE VARIABLE PATTERN NOTED
ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. PRESSURES SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL
SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THIS LOW
WILL PULL THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWARD AND OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE
BEACHES...HOWEVER CONDITIONS FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN
THE 2-4 AM TIME FRAME. SEAS CURRENTLY 1-2 FT MAY BEGIN TO BUILD
TOWARD 3 FEET ACROSS THE OUTERMOST PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT AS SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD FINALLY MAKES
IT TO THE COAST.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN E-NE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. INITIALLY WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY. THE ON SHORE FLOW UP TO 10 KTS ON
WED WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16
SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS
IN OUTER WATERS WED AFTN. THE LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM
EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL PEAK AROUND 16
SECONDS VERY EARLY WED AND WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THURS.
SEAS WILL ACTUALLY DROP SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY THURS BUT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NE WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THUR NIGHT SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER SPIKE IN SEAS BY FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE REMINISCENT OF
THE COOL SEASON WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. THE PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT COULD YIELD A FEW ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SEAS INTO NRN
ZONES...BUT WNA GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND IT
MAY BE QUITE MARGINAL. CURRENT FCST STILL SHOWING A RAMP UP TO 4
TO 6 THOUGH. WAVE SHADOWING WILL PRECLUDE ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH. BORDERLINE
SCEC/ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE OVER NRN ZONES INTO SATURDAY. FURTHER
WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIETER CONDITIONS COME
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 162334
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
734 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...IN THE BATTLE OF MODELS...THE 18Z GFS AND 20Z
HRRR APPEAR TO BE THE BEST SOLUTIONS OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z NAM IN
PARTICULAR HAS PROBLEMS WITH ITS DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE SC COASTAL PLAIN RATHER THAN OFFSHORE AS THE BULK OF THE LATEST
MODELS SHOW. THIS FEEDS BACK INTO PROBLEMS WITH THE NAM`S WIND
FORECAST AND ITS CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION VERY LATE
TONIGHT INLAND. GOING WITH THE GFS/HRRR SOLUTION MEANS THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NC FOOTHILLS/WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD
SLIDE DOWN INTO THE BENNETTSVILLE/LUMBERTON AREA IN THE 9-11 PM
TIMEFRAME. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO NEAR 50 PERCENT HERE. THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...PULLED INTO THE ZONE OF
LOWERING PRESSURES ACROSS THE SC OFFSHORE WATERS.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD IS LESS
CERTAIN...BUT A WIDESPREAD ZONE OF 20-30 POPS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST AS RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT DEVELOP WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS
NEAR THE FRONT. A 300 MB JET STREAK MAY ALSO BECOME FAVORABLY
ALIGNED AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THIS WILL MAINLY BE A
FACTOR FOR OFFSHORE CONVECTION RATHER THAN ACTIVITY ON LAND.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH LOWS FALLING
IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG LINGERING FRONT
WILL GET PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
TOP OF THE LOW WILL COME UP AGAINST W-NW FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH WED
AND THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND POPS IN FORECAST ON WED. THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND WILL
LIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WED INTO THURS. AS TROUGH AXIS
CROSSES THE COAST EARLY THURS...A DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NE THROUGH LATE THURS. PCP
WATER VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES WED AFTN DOWN CLOSER TO
AN INCH BY THURS EVE. DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WED
AFTN WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THURS. OVERALL EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

AS AIR MASS TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS...SO
WILL THE TEMPS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WED WILL BE WARMER THAN THURS
NIGHT BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MID 60S BOTH NIGHTS. TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE 80S ON WED BUT ON THURS TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER EVEN WITH A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY A LARGE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL HAVE
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE VERY WEAK BUT STILL HAVE SOME SENSE OF TROUGHINESS.
MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME TELLING HOW MUCH THIS TROUGHINESS ERODES
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS
MANAGES TO FLING MOISTURE ASHORE AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE CMC. THE
(00Z) ECMWF DOES THE SAME BUT WITH A MUCH SLOWER SENSE OF TIMING
KEEPING MOST PLACES DRY TIL SUNDAY. WILL SHOW JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THESE DAYS. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO WASH
OUT BY MONDAY AT WHICH TIME RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO BEING TIED TO A
DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL OR HIGHER. A
COLD FRONT APPEARS SLATED FOR A MONDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS SOME PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE HRRR HOLDS THIS ACTIVITY TOGETHER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SO
WILL INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS FOR KFLO/KLBT EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS COULD ACCOMPANY ONE OF THESE STORMS IF IT MOVES DIRECTLY
OVER A TAF SITE...BUT COVERAGE IS LIMITED SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
RESTRICTIONS ATTM.

A PERIOD OF CALM WINDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH COULD ALLOW VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR/TEMPO IFR LEVELS IN
BR. THE GFS/NAM DIFFER IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. BUT THE MORE REALISTIC GFS SOLUTION
SHOWS NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KT DEVELOPING BY 09Z WED...WHICH
WOULD HELP MIX THE SFC LAYER AND IMPROVE VSBYS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THUS...THE FOG POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER EARLIER TONIGHT AS
OPPOSED TO THE NORMALLY FAVORED PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS LOWERS MY
CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF IFR VSBYS. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WED
BEFORE CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT GENERALLY ONSHORE WINDS WILL BACK
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURES FALL OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER WILL ALSO BE PULLED THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS (10-15 KNOTS) DEVELOPING AROUND DAYBREAK. SHOWER
ACTIVITY NEAR GEORGETOWN/WINYAH BAY SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY POP UP
AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

BASED ON CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
TO 1-2 FEET CURRENTLY. THE LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL IS OFTEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE BUILDING SEAS WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS...AND SEA HEIGHT
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO NEAR THE NOAA WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN E-NE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. INITIALLY WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY. THE ON SHORE FLOW UP TO 10 KTS ON
WED WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16
SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS
IN OUTER WATERS WED AFTN. THE LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM
EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL PEAK AROUND 16
SECONDS VERY EARLY WED AND WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THURS.
SEAS WILL ACTUALLY DROP SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY THURS BUT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NE WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THUR NIGHT SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER SPIKE IN SEAS BY FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE REMINISCENT OF
THE COOL SEASON WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. THE PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT COULD YIELD A FEW ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SEAS INTO NRN
ZONES...BUT WNA GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND IT
MAY BE QUITE MARGINAL. CURRENT FCST STILL SHOWING A RAMP UP TO 4
TO 6 THOUGH. WAVE SHADOWING WILL PRECLUDE ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH. BORDERLINE
SCEC/ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE OVER NRN ZONES INTO SATURDAY. FURTHER
WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIETER CONDITIONS COME
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 162334
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
734 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...IN THE BATTLE OF MODELS...THE 18Z GFS AND 20Z
HRRR APPEAR TO BE THE BEST SOLUTIONS OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z NAM IN
PARTICULAR HAS PROBLEMS WITH ITS DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE SC COASTAL PLAIN RATHER THAN OFFSHORE AS THE BULK OF THE LATEST
MODELS SHOW. THIS FEEDS BACK INTO PROBLEMS WITH THE NAM`S WIND
FORECAST AND ITS CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION VERY LATE
TONIGHT INLAND. GOING WITH THE GFS/HRRR SOLUTION MEANS THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NC FOOTHILLS/WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD
SLIDE DOWN INTO THE BENNETTSVILLE/LUMBERTON AREA IN THE 9-11 PM
TIMEFRAME. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO NEAR 50 PERCENT HERE. THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...PULLED INTO THE ZONE OF
LOWERING PRESSURES ACROSS THE SC OFFSHORE WATERS.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD IS LESS
CERTAIN...BUT A WIDESPREAD ZONE OF 20-30 POPS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST AS RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT DEVELOP WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS
NEAR THE FRONT. A 300 MB JET STREAK MAY ALSO BECOME FAVORABLY
ALIGNED AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THIS WILL MAINLY BE A
FACTOR FOR OFFSHORE CONVECTION RATHER THAN ACTIVITY ON LAND.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH LOWS FALLING
IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG LINGERING FRONT
WILL GET PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
TOP OF THE LOW WILL COME UP AGAINST W-NW FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH WED
AND THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND POPS IN FORECAST ON WED. THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND WILL
LIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WED INTO THURS. AS TROUGH AXIS
CROSSES THE COAST EARLY THURS...A DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NE THROUGH LATE THURS. PCP
WATER VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES WED AFTN DOWN CLOSER TO
AN INCH BY THURS EVE. DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WED
AFTN WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THURS. OVERALL EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

AS AIR MASS TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS...SO
WILL THE TEMPS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WED WILL BE WARMER THAN THURS
NIGHT BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MID 60S BOTH NIGHTS. TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE 80S ON WED BUT ON THURS TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER EVEN WITH A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY A LARGE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL HAVE
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE VERY WEAK BUT STILL HAVE SOME SENSE OF TROUGHINESS.
MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME TELLING HOW MUCH THIS TROUGHINESS ERODES
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS
MANAGES TO FLING MOISTURE ASHORE AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE CMC. THE
(00Z) ECMWF DOES THE SAME BUT WITH A MUCH SLOWER SENSE OF TIMING
KEEPING MOST PLACES DRY TIL SUNDAY. WILL SHOW JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THESE DAYS. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO WASH
OUT BY MONDAY AT WHICH TIME RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO BEING TIED TO A
DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL OR HIGHER. A
COLD FRONT APPEARS SLATED FOR A MONDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS SOME PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE HRRR HOLDS THIS ACTIVITY TOGETHER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SO
WILL INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS FOR KFLO/KLBT EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS COULD ACCOMPANY ONE OF THESE STORMS IF IT MOVES DIRECTLY
OVER A TAF SITE...BUT COVERAGE IS LIMITED SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
RESTRICTIONS ATTM.

A PERIOD OF CALM WINDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH COULD ALLOW VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR/TEMPO IFR LEVELS IN
BR. THE GFS/NAM DIFFER IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. BUT THE MORE REALISTIC GFS SOLUTION
SHOWS NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KT DEVELOPING BY 09Z WED...WHICH
WOULD HELP MIX THE SFC LAYER AND IMPROVE VSBYS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THUS...THE FOG POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER EARLIER TONIGHT AS
OPPOSED TO THE NORMALLY FAVORED PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS LOWERS MY
CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF IFR VSBYS. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WED
BEFORE CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT GENERALLY ONSHORE WINDS WILL BACK
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURES FALL OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER WILL ALSO BE PULLED THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS (10-15 KNOTS) DEVELOPING AROUND DAYBREAK. SHOWER
ACTIVITY NEAR GEORGETOWN/WINYAH BAY SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY POP UP
AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

BASED ON CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
TO 1-2 FEET CURRENTLY. THE LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL IS OFTEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE BUILDING SEAS WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS...AND SEA HEIGHT
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO NEAR THE NOAA WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN E-NE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. INITIALLY WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY. THE ON SHORE FLOW UP TO 10 KTS ON
WED WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16
SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS
IN OUTER WATERS WED AFTN. THE LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM
EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL PEAK AROUND 16
SECONDS VERY EARLY WED AND WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THURS.
SEAS WILL ACTUALLY DROP SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY THURS BUT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NE WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THUR NIGHT SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER SPIKE IN SEAS BY FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE REMINISCENT OF
THE COOL SEASON WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. THE PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT COULD YIELD A FEW ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SEAS INTO NRN
ZONES...BUT WNA GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND IT
MAY BE QUITE MARGINAL. CURRENT FCST STILL SHOWING A RAMP UP TO 4
TO 6 THOUGH. WAVE SHADOWING WILL PRECLUDE ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH. BORDERLINE
SCEC/ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE OVER NRN ZONES INTO SATURDAY. FURTHER
WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIETER CONDITIONS COME
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 161926
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY FALLING. THE DRIER AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER AND GOOD HEATING AND WITH THAT INCREASING INSTABILITY.
AS A CONSEQUENCE...A FEW SHOWERS/RUMBLE OF THUNDER HAVE MANAGED TO
DEVELOP...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WAS
CROSSING THE TENNESSEE APPALACHIANS AT MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE EVE/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...WILL SHOW
POPS TRENDING DOWN DURING THE EARLY EVE ALONG THE COAST...BUT
UPWARDS ACROSS INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95...FROM FLO TO LBT...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE. GIVEN THE TIMING...WILL NOT GO AS BULLISH AS SOME OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING...BUT WILL BRING POPS UP TO
30-40 PERCENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION TO DIMINISH TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR BELOW THRESHOLD FROM
WEST TO EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER THROUGHOUT LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTING.
THEREAFTER...WILL ONLY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE AND FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MODEL PROFILES AND OTHER GUIDANCE ARE SUPPORTING STRATUS/FOG FILLING
IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL INCLUDE PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR INLAND ZONES. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S...TO LOWER 70S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG LINGERING FRONT
WILL GET PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
TOP OF THE LOW WILL COME UP AGAINST W-NW FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH WED
AND THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND POPS IN FORECAST ON WED. THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND WILL
LIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WED INTO THURS. AS TROUGH AXIS
CROSSES THE COAST EARLY THURS...A DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYNG AND SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NE THROUGH LATE THURS. PCP
WATER VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES WED AFTN DOWN CLOSER TO
AN INCH BY THURS EVE. DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WED
AFTN WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THURS. OVERALL EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

AS AIR MASS TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS...SO
WILL THE TEMPS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WED WILL BE WARMER THAN THURS
NIGHT BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MID 60S BOTH NIGHTS. TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE 80S ON WED BUT ON THURS TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER EVEN WITH A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY A LARGE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL HAVE
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE VERY WEAK BUT STILL HAVE SOME SENSE OF TROUGHINESS.
MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME TELLING HOW MUCH THIS TROUGHINESS ERODES
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS
MANAGES TO FLING MOISTURE ASHORE AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE CMC. THE
(00Z) ECMWF DOES THE SAME BUT WITH A MUCH SLOWER SENSE OF TIMING
KEEPING MOST PLACES DRY TIL SUNDAY. WILL SHOW JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THESE DAYS. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO WASH
OUT BY MONDAY AT WHICH TIME RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO BEING TIED TO A
DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL OR HIGHER. A
COLD FRONT APPEARS SLATED FOR A MONDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO KICK IN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING NE WINDS TO ESE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE RESULTANT...AND MAY STAY PINNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE COAST WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL END AROUND 22Z...MAINLY FOR DIURNAL REASONS. THE NAM
KEEPS CONVECTION GOING TO OUR NORTH WELL INTO THE EVENING...BUT NOT
REALLY ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO...GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE THE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG...ALTHOUGH THEY
DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY. LOOKS LIKE THE INLAND TERMINALS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WEDGE TRIES TO SET UP. THE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS. SWELL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
SLOWLY BUILD FROM...2 TO 3 FT...UP TO 4 FT WITH A FEW 5 FT SEAS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS BY WED MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...10 KT OR LESS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE ENE TO EASTERLY...BACKING TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ASSERTIVE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN E-NE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. INITIALLY WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY. THE ON SHORE FLOW UP TO 10 KTS ON
WED WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16
SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS
IN OUTER WATERS WED AFTN. THE LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM
EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL PEAK AROUND 16
SECONDS VERY EARLY WED AND WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THURS.
SEAS WILL ACTUALLY DROP SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY THURS BUT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NE WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THUR NIGHT SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER SPIKE IN SEAS BY FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE REMINISCENT OF
THE COOL SEASON WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. THE PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT COULD YIELD A FEW ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SEAS INTO NRN
ZONES...BUT WNA GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND IT
MAY BE QUITE MARGINAL. CURRENT FCST STILL SHOWING A RAMP UP TO 4
TO 6 THOUGH. WAVE SHADOWING WILL PRECLUDE ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH. BORDERLINE
SCEC/ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE OVER NRN ZONES INTO SATURDAY. FURTHER
WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIETER CONDITIONS COME
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/DL










000
FXUS62 KILM 161926
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY FALLING. THE DRIER AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER AND GOOD HEATING AND WITH THAT INCREASING INSTABILITY.
AS A CONSEQUENCE...A FEW SHOWERS/RUMBLE OF THUNDER HAVE MANAGED TO
DEVELOP...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WAS
CROSSING THE TENNESSEE APPALACHIANS AT MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE EVE/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...WILL SHOW
POPS TRENDING DOWN DURING THE EARLY EVE ALONG THE COAST...BUT
UPWARDS ACROSS INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95...FROM FLO TO LBT...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE. GIVEN THE TIMING...WILL NOT GO AS BULLISH AS SOME OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING...BUT WILL BRING POPS UP TO
30-40 PERCENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION TO DIMINISH TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR BELOW THRESHOLD FROM
WEST TO EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER THROUGHOUT LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTING.
THEREAFTER...WILL ONLY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE AND FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MODEL PROFILES AND OTHER GUIDANCE ARE SUPPORTING STRATUS/FOG FILLING
IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL INCLUDE PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR INLAND ZONES. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S...TO LOWER 70S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG LINGERING FRONT
WILL GET PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
TOP OF THE LOW WILL COME UP AGAINST W-NW FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH WED
AND THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND POPS IN FORECAST ON WED. THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND WILL
LIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WED INTO THURS. AS TROUGH AXIS
CROSSES THE COAST EARLY THURS...A DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYNG AND SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NE THROUGH LATE THURS. PCP
WATER VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES WED AFTN DOWN CLOSER TO
AN INCH BY THURS EVE. DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WED
AFTN WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THURS. OVERALL EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

AS AIR MASS TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS...SO
WILL THE TEMPS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WED WILL BE WARMER THAN THURS
NIGHT BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MID 60S BOTH NIGHTS. TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE 80S ON WED BUT ON THURS TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER EVEN WITH A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY A LARGE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL HAVE
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE VERY WEAK BUT STILL HAVE SOME SENSE OF TROUGHINESS.
MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME TELLING HOW MUCH THIS TROUGHINESS ERODES
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS
MANAGES TO FLING MOISTURE ASHORE AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE CMC. THE
(00Z) ECMWF DOES THE SAME BUT WITH A MUCH SLOWER SENSE OF TIMING
KEEPING MOST PLACES DRY TIL SUNDAY. WILL SHOW JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THESE DAYS. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO WASH
OUT BY MONDAY AT WHICH TIME RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO BEING TIED TO A
DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL OR HIGHER. A
COLD FRONT APPEARS SLATED FOR A MONDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO KICK IN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING NE WINDS TO ESE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE RESULTANT...AND MAY STAY PINNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE COAST WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL END AROUND 22Z...MAINLY FOR DIURNAL REASONS. THE NAM
KEEPS CONVECTION GOING TO OUR NORTH WELL INTO THE EVENING...BUT NOT
REALLY ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO...GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE THE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG...ALTHOUGH THEY
DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY. LOOKS LIKE THE INLAND TERMINALS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WEDGE TRIES TO SET UP. THE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS. SWELL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
SLOWLY BUILD FROM...2 TO 3 FT...UP TO 4 FT WITH A FEW 5 FT SEAS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS BY WED MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...10 KT OR LESS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE ENE TO EASTERLY...BACKING TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ASSERTIVE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN E-NE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. INITIALLY WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY. THE ON SHORE FLOW UP TO 10 KTS ON
WED WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16
SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS
IN OUTER WATERS WED AFTN. THE LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM
EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL PEAK AROUND 16
SECONDS VERY EARLY WED AND WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THURS.
SEAS WILL ACTUALLY DROP SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY THURS BUT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NE WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THUR NIGHT SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER SPIKE IN SEAS BY FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE REMINISCENT OF
THE COOL SEASON WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. THE PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT COULD YIELD A FEW ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SEAS INTO NRN
ZONES...BUT WNA GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND IT
MAY BE QUITE MARGINAL. CURRENT FCST STILL SHOWING A RAMP UP TO 4
TO 6 THOUGH. WAVE SHADOWING WILL PRECLUDE ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH. BORDERLINE
SCEC/ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE OVER NRN ZONES INTO SATURDAY. FURTHER
WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIETER CONDITIONS COME
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/DL











000
FXUS62 KILM 161735
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
135 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE...BUT FEW IF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE
THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS AND THE OUTER BANKS NEAR MIDDAY.

HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS MAY SERVE TO INCREASE THE LIFT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
FEATURE SKIRTS OUR FORECAST AREA.

INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA.
STRONGER HEATING SHOULD YIELD MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHERE CONVECTION
MIGHT DEVELOP INITIALLY. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE NOT
INITIALIZED WELL. THE SEABREEZE MAY BECOME AN AREA OF INITIATION
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH MORE INLAND AREAS FAVORED LATER IN THE
DAY. WILL CONFINE POPS TO SMALL CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE THOSE OF MONDAY...LOWER TO MID 80S.
UPPER 80S ARE WITHIN REACH SHOULD CLOUDS DIMINISH FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COMMONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH A FEW MID 60S POSSIBLE INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. LIFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED A
LITTLE BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
FIRM CONTROL AS IT BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS SHOWING
LIGHT QPF AND THIS MAY OCCUR IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SPEED
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT. WITH SOUNDINGS RELATIVELY DRY
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS...A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WEDNESDAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODERATED BY THE WINDS AND EXPECTED BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO AT THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHOWS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RESULT IS A
MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH THAT EXTENDS WELL DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND I HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDING POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED MAINLY
OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO KICK IN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING NE WINDS TO ESE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE RESULTANT...AND MAY STAY PINNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE COAST WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL END AROUND 22Z...MAINLY FOR DIURNAL REASONS. THE NAM
KEEPS CONVECTION GOING TO OUR NORTH WELL INTO THE EVENING...BUT NOT
REALLY ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO...GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE THE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG...ALTHOUGH THEY
DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY. LOOKS LIKE THE INLAND TERMINALS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WEDGE TRIES TO SET UP. THE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS AND WHILE WEAK TODAY...SWELL ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM...2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND UP TO 4 TO 5
FT LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...10 KT OR LESS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE ENE TO EASTERLY...BACKING TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ASSERTIVE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...TEN KNOTS
OR LESS AND THERE MAY BE A LITTLE VEERING DUE TO SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE A BIT
THURSDAY WITH A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH
AN INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH 3-7 FEET AND LIKELY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. FOR SATURDAY THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS HOWEVER REMAIN ELEVATED AS A SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT
IS ADDED TO THE SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43/RJD









000
FXUS62 KILM 161735
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
135 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE...BUT FEW IF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE
THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS AND THE OUTER BANKS NEAR MIDDAY.

HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS MAY SERVE TO INCREASE THE LIFT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
FEATURE SKIRTS OUR FORECAST AREA.

INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA.
STRONGER HEATING SHOULD YIELD MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHERE CONVECTION
MIGHT DEVELOP INITIALLY. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE NOT
INITIALIZED WELL. THE SEABREEZE MAY BECOME AN AREA OF INITIATION
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH MORE INLAND AREAS FAVORED LATER IN THE
DAY. WILL CONFINE POPS TO SMALL CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE THOSE OF MONDAY...LOWER TO MID 80S.
UPPER 80S ARE WITHIN REACH SHOULD CLOUDS DIMINISH FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COMMONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH A FEW MID 60S POSSIBLE INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. LIFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED A
LITTLE BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
FIRM CONTROL AS IT BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS SHOWING
LIGHT QPF AND THIS MAY OCCUR IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SPEED
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT. WITH SOUNDINGS RELATIVELY DRY
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS...A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WEDNESDAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODERATED BY THE WINDS AND EXPECTED BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO AT THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHOWS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RESULT IS A
MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH THAT EXTENDS WELL DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND I HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDING POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED MAINLY
OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO KICK IN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING NE WINDS TO ESE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE RESULTANT...AND MAY STAY PINNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE COAST WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL END AROUND 22Z...MAINLY FOR DIURNAL REASONS. THE NAM
KEEPS CONVECTION GOING TO OUR NORTH WELL INTO THE EVENING...BUT NOT
REALLY ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO...GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE THE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG...ALTHOUGH THEY
DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY. LOOKS LIKE THE INLAND TERMINALS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WEDGE TRIES TO SET UP. THE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS AND WHILE WEAK TODAY...SWELL ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM...2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND UP TO 4 TO 5
FT LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...10 KT OR LESS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE ENE TO EASTERLY...BACKING TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ASSERTIVE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...TEN KNOTS
OR LESS AND THERE MAY BE A LITTLE VEERING DUE TO SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE A BIT
THURSDAY WITH A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH
AN INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH 3-7 FEET AND LIKELY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. FOR SATURDAY THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS HOWEVER REMAIN ELEVATED AS A SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT
IS ADDED TO THE SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43/RJD










000
FXUS62 KILM 161519
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1119 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE...BUT FEW IF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE
THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS AND THE OUTER BANKS NEAR MIDDAY.

HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS MAY SERVE TO INCREASE THE LIFT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
FEATURE SKIRTS OUR FORECAST AREA.

INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA.
STRONGER HEATING SHOULD YIELD MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHERE CONVECTION
MIGHT DEVELOP INITIALLY. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE NOT
INITIALIZED WELL. THE SEABREEZE MAY BECOME AN AREA OF INITIATION
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH MORE INLAND AREAS FAVORED LATER IN THE
DAY. WILL CONFINE POPS TO SMALL CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE THOSE OF MONDAY...LOWER TO MID 80S.
UPPER 80S ARE WITHIN REACH SHOULD CLOUDS DIMINISH FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COMMONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH A FEW MID 60S POSSIBLE INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. LIFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED A
LITTLE BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
FIRM CONTROL AS IT BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS SHOWING
LIGHT QPF AND THIS MAY OCCUR IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SPEED
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT. WITH SOUNDINGS RELATIVELY DRY
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS...A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WEDNESDAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODERATED BY THE WINDS AND EXPECTED BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO AT THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHOWS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RESULT IS A
MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH THAT EXTENDS WELL DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND I HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDING POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED MAINLY
OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER DAY WITH A WEAK GRADIENT...MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT...REALLY THE SAME FRONT THAT
HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND FOR OVER A WEAK...WILL DROP IN TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT...BUT RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE WE WILL SEE TODAY. THINK MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL BATCH THIS
MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. CEILINGS ARE GOING TO BOUNCE
AROUND THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING. TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH POST FRONTAL STRATUS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER
AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS AND WHILE WEAK TODAY...SWELL ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM...2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND UP TO 4 TO 5
FT LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...10 KT OR LESS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE ENE TO EASTERLY...BACKING TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ASSERTIVE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...TEN KNOTS
OR LESS AND THERE MAY BE A LITTLE VEERING DUE TO SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE A BIT
THURSDAY WITH A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH
AN INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH 3-7 FEET AND LIKELY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. FOR SATURDAY THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS HOWEVER REMAIN ELEVATED AS A SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT
IS ADDED TO THE SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43






000
FXUS62 KILM 161519
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1119 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE...BUT FEW IF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE
THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS AND THE OUTER BANKS NEAR MIDDAY.

HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS MAY SERVE TO INCREASE THE LIFT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
FEATURE SKIRTS OUR FORECAST AREA.

INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA.
STRONGER HEATING SHOULD YIELD MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHERE CONVECTION
MIGHT DEVELOP INITIALLY. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE NOT
INITIALIZED WELL. THE SEABREEZE MAY BECOME AN AREA OF INITIATION
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH MORE INLAND AREAS FAVORED LATER IN THE
DAY. WILL CONFINE POPS TO SMALL CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE THOSE OF MONDAY...LOWER TO MID 80S.
UPPER 80S ARE WITHIN REACH SHOULD CLOUDS DIMINISH FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COMMONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH A FEW MID 60S POSSIBLE INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. LIFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED A
LITTLE BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
FIRM CONTROL AS IT BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS SHOWING
LIGHT QPF AND THIS MAY OCCUR IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SPEED
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT. WITH SOUNDINGS RELATIVELY DRY
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS...A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WEDNESDAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODERATED BY THE WINDS AND EXPECTED BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO AT THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHOWS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RESULT IS A
MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH THAT EXTENDS WELL DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND I HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDING POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED MAINLY
OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER DAY WITH A WEAK GRADIENT...MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT...REALLY THE SAME FRONT THAT
HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND FOR OVER A WEAK...WILL DROP IN TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT...BUT RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE WE WILL SEE TODAY. THINK MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL BATCH THIS
MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. CEILINGS ARE GOING TO BOUNCE
AROUND THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING. TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH POST FRONTAL STRATUS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER
AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS AND WHILE WEAK TODAY...SWELL ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM...2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND UP TO 4 TO 5
FT LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...10 KT OR LESS. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE ENE TO EASTERLY...BACKING TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ASSERTIVE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...TEN KNOTS
OR LESS AND THERE MAY BE A LITTLE VEERING DUE TO SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE A BIT
THURSDAY WITH A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH
AN INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH 3-7 FEET AND LIKELY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. FOR SATURDAY THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS HOWEVER REMAIN ELEVATED AS A SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT
IS ADDED TO THE SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43







000
FXUS62 KILM 161037
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
638 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FLATTISH LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TRANSIT
OVERHEAD. THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A RATHER WEAK AND AMORPHOUS PRESSURE
PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND
THUS SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL MOTION BUT THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS FAIRLY
CLEAR. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SEEMS TO BE
IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING WHILE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
MERGES THE FRONTS TODAY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING A
BROAD AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT. POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MORE ASSERTIVELY OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION WILL TRAIL WELL BEHIND THIS FEATURE.

NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY AND
CONVECTIVE INDICES SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS A
POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW MID LEVELS ARE ON THE DRY
SIDE AND AFOREMENTIONED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA NOT VERY STRONG.
BEST SHOT AT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL BE
KEEPING POPS IN THE FAIRLY MODEST 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR
TODAY...WITH CHANCES TRAILING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRYER AND MORE
STABLE AIR FILTERS IN POST-FROPA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SEASONAL...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING
US HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. LIFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED A
LITTLE BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
FIRM CONTROL AS IT BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS SHOWING
LIGHT QPF AND THIS MAY OCCUR IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SPEED
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT. WITH SOUNDINGS RELATIVELY DRY
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS...A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WEDNESDAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODERATED BY THE WINDS AND EXPECTED BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE SCENARIO AT THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES SHOWS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RESULT IS A
MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH THAT EXTENDS WELL DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND I HAVE MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDING POPS FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
MAINLY OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER DAY WITH A WEAK GRADIENT...MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT...REALLY THE SAME FRONT THAT
HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND FOR OVER A WEAK...WILL DROP IN TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT...BUT RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE WE WILL SEE TODAY. THINK MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL BATCH THIS
MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. CEILINGS ARE GOING TO BOUNCE
AROUND THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING. TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH POST FRONTAL STRATUS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER
AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL STAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS...WITH
SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...TEN KNOTS
OR LESS AND THERE MAY BE A LITTLE VEERING DUE TO SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE A BIT
THURSDAY WITH A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH
AN INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH 3-7 FEET AND LIKELY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. FOR SATURDAY THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS HOWEVER REMAIN ELEVATED AS A SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT
IS ADDED TO THE SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/SHK










000
FXUS62 KILM 161037
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
638 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FLATTISH LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TRANSIT
OVERHEAD. THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A RATHER WEAK AND AMORPHOUS PRESSURE
PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND
THUS SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL MOTION BUT THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS FAIRLY
CLEAR. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SEEMS TO BE
IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING WHILE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
MERGES THE FRONTS TODAY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING A
BROAD AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT. POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MORE ASSERTIVELY OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION WILL TRAIL WELL BEHIND THIS FEATURE.

NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY AND
CONVECTIVE INDICES SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS A
POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW MID LEVELS ARE ON THE DRY
SIDE AND AFOREMENTIONED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA NOT VERY STRONG.
BEST SHOT AT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL BE
KEEPING POPS IN THE FAIRLY MODEST 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR
TODAY...WITH CHANCES TRAILING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRYER AND MORE
STABLE AIR FILTERS IN POST-FROPA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SEASONAL...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING
US HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. LIFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED A
LITTLE BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
FIRM CONTROL AS IT BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS SHOWING
LIGHT QPF AND THIS MAY OCCUR IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SPEED
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT. WITH SOUNDINGS RELATIVELY DRY
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS...A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WEDNESDAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODERATED BY THE WINDS AND EXPECTED BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE SCENARIO AT THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES SHOWS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RESULT IS A
MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH THAT EXTENDS WELL DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND I HAVE MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDING POPS FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
MAINLY OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER DAY WITH A WEAK GRADIENT...MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT...REALLY THE SAME FRONT THAT
HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND FOR OVER A WEAK...WILL DROP IN TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT...BUT RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE WE WILL SEE TODAY. THINK MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL BATCH THIS
MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. CEILINGS ARE GOING TO BOUNCE
AROUND THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING. TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH POST FRONTAL STRATUS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER
AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL STAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS...WITH
SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...TEN KNOTS
OR LESS AND THERE MAY BE A LITTLE VEERING DUE TO SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE A BIT
THURSDAY WITH A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH
AN INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH 3-7 FEET AND LIKELY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. FOR SATURDAY THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS HOWEVER REMAIN ELEVATED AS A SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT
IS ADDED TO THE SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/SHK









000
FXUS62 KILM 161016
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
616 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FLATTISH LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TRANSIT
OVERHEAD. THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A RATHER WEAK AND AMORPHOUS PRESSURE
PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND
THUS SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL MOTION BUT THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS FAIRLY
CLEAR. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SEEMS TO BE
IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING WHILE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
MERGES THE FRONTS TODAY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING A
BROAD AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT. POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MORE ASSERTIVELY OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION WILL TRAIL WELL BEHIND THIS FEATURE.

NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY AND
CONVECTIVE INDICES SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS A
POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW MID LEVELS ARE ON THE DRY
SIDE AND AFOREMENTIONED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA NOT VERY STRONG.
BEST SHOT AT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL BE
KEEPING POPS IN THE FAIRLY MODEST 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR
TODAY...WITH CHANCES TRAILING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRYER AND MORE
STABLE AIR FILTERS IN POST-FROPA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SEASONAL...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING
US HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. LIFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED A
LITTLE BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
FIRM CONTROL AS IT BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS SHOWING
LIGHT QPF AND THIS MAY OCCUR IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SPEED
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT. WITH SOUNDINGS RELATIVELY DRY
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS...A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WEDNESDAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODERATED BY THE WINDS AND EXPECTED BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE SCENARIO AT THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES SHOWS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RESULT IS A
MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH THAT EXTENDS WELL DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND I HAVE MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDING POPS FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
MAINLY OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT OVERNIGHT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO FILL IN ONCE AGAIN AS
COOL MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR IFR CIGS IS INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT AFTER 09Z. ALONG THE COAST...
1-2KFT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
BY DAYBREAK CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KCRE/KMYR. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMS THIS MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH A REMNANT FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EMERGE DURING THE AFTN HOURS
AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL
NEAR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD. BUT ATTM...IT APPEARS THE WIND SHIFT
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER
AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL STAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS...WITH
SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...TEN KNOTS
OR LESS AND THERE MAY BE A LITTLE VEERING DUE TO SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE A BIT
THURSDAY WITH A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH
AN INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH 3-7 FEET AND LIKELY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. FOR SATURDAY THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS HOWEVER REMAIN ELEVATED AS A SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT
IS ADDED TO THE SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 160728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
328 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FLATTISH LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES TRANSIT OVERHEAD. THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A RATHER WEAK AND AMORPHOUS
PRESSURE PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN EXACT FRONTAL
PLACEMENT AND THUS SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL MOTION BUT THE GENERAL
SCENARIO IS FAIRLY CLEAR. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH SEEMS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING WHILE LIFTING BACK
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE MERGES THE FRONTS TODAY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING
A BROAD AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT. POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MORE ASSERTIVELY OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION WILL TRAIL WELL BEHIND THIS FEATURE.

NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY AND
CONVECTIVE INDICES SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS A
POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW MID LEVELS ARE ON THE DRY
SIDE AND AFOREMENTIONED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA NOT VERY STRONG.
BEST SHOT AT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL BE
KEEPING POPS IN THE FAIRLY MODEST 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR
TODAY...WITH CHANCES TRAILING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRYER AND MORE
STABLE AIR FILTERS IN POST-FROPA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SEASONAL...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING
US HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. LIFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED A
LITTLE BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
FIRM CONTROL AS IT BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS SHOWING
LIGHT QPF AND THIS MAY OCCUR IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SPEED
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT. WITH SOUNDINGS RELATIVELY DRY
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS...A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WEDNESDAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODERATED BY THE WINDS AND EXPECTED BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE SCENARIO AT THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES SHOWS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RESULT IS A
MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH THAT EXTENDS WELL DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND I HAVE MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDING POPS FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
MAINLY OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT OVERNIGHT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO FILL IN ONCE AGAIN AS
COOL MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR IFR CIGS IS INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT AFTER 09Z. ALONG THE COAST...
1-2KFT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
BY DAYBREAK CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KCRE/KMYR. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMS THIS MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH A REMNANT FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EMERGE DURING THE AFTN HOURS
AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL
NEAR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD. BUT ATTM...IT APPEARS THE WIND SHIFT
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER
AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL STAY GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KTS...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...TEN KNOTS
OR LESS AND THERE MAY BE A LITTLE VEERING DUE TO SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE A BIT
THURSDAY WITH A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH
AN INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH 3-7 FEET AND LIKELY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. FOR SATURDAY THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS HOWEVER REMAIN ELEVATED AS A SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT
IS ADDED TO THE SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR








000
FXUS62 KILM 160728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
328 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FLATTISH LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES TRANSIT OVERHEAD. THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A RATHER WEAK AND AMORPHOUS
PRESSURE PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN EXACT FRONTAL
PLACEMENT AND THUS SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL MOTION BUT THE GENERAL
SCENARIO IS FAIRLY CLEAR. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH SEEMS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING WHILE LIFTING BACK
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE MERGES THE FRONTS TODAY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING
A BROAD AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT. POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MORE ASSERTIVELY OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION WILL TRAIL WELL BEHIND THIS FEATURE.

NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY AND
CONVECTIVE INDICES SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS A
POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW MID LEVELS ARE ON THE DRY
SIDE AND AFOREMENTIONED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA NOT VERY STRONG.
BEST SHOT AT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL BE
KEEPING POPS IN THE FAIRLY MODEST 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR
TODAY...WITH CHANCES TRAILING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRYER AND MORE
STABLE AIR FILTERS IN POST-FROPA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SEASONAL...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING
US HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. LIFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED A
LITTLE BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
FIRM CONTROL AS IT BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS SHOWING
LIGHT QPF AND THIS MAY OCCUR IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SPEED
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT. WITH SOUNDINGS RELATIVELY DRY
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS...A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WEDNESDAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODERATED BY THE WINDS AND EXPECTED BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE SCENARIO AT THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES SHOWS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RESULT IS A
MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH THAT EXTENDS WELL DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND I HAVE MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDING POPS FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
MAINLY OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT OVERNIGHT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO FILL IN ONCE AGAIN AS
COOL MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR IFR CIGS IS INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT AFTER 09Z. ALONG THE COAST...
1-2KFT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
BY DAYBREAK CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KCRE/KMYR. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMS THIS MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH A REMNANT FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EMERGE DURING THE AFTN HOURS
AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL
NEAR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD. BUT ATTM...IT APPEARS THE WIND SHIFT
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER
AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL STAY GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KTS...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...TEN KNOTS
OR LESS AND THERE MAY BE A LITTLE VEERING DUE TO SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE A BIT
THURSDAY WITH A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH
AN INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH 3-7 FEET AND LIKELY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. FOR SATURDAY THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS HOWEVER REMAIN ELEVATED AS A SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT
IS ADDED TO THE SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR









000
FXUS62 KILM 160606
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
206 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S STILL EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW PRESENT VALUES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THIS MORNING. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A LINGERING FRONT THAT WAS SOUTH OF AREA
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUES HELPING TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD MERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE SC COAST THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE
AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THE WHOLE SYSTEM OFF
SHORE. THE HIGHEST PCP WATER VALUES WILL CREEP BACK NORTH THROUGH
TUES MORNING REMAINING OVER EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE DECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUES AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
LINGERING FRONT WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PCP WATER VALUES UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ON TUES WILL
DECREASE SLOWLY TO 1.5 INCHES BY WED AND DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH DEEPER
DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 5K FT WILL
PERSIST AND THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME DRIER AIR DOES MAKE IT INTO AREA IN W-NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BY TUES AFTN AND THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES. THE BEST
CHC OF HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS WILL EXIST ON TUES...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SOME PCP IN THE AREA THROUGH WED.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY ON TUES. SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID 80S AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND IN
PLACES THAT SEE SOME BRIGHTENING OF SKIES TUES AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE
LOWER ON WED AS COOLER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDS BLANKETING THE AREA MOST OF
THE TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF COAST EXPANDS EAST. DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRESSIVE
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND FRI WILL HELP PUSH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN
THE COAST THU/FRI OFF THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
AN END TO LOW CLOUDS...BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES...AND THE THREAT
OF PRECIP FOR SAT AND SUN.

WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL CLEAR SKIES AND BRING
ABOUT A RETURN TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...PUSHED BY A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MON. FROPA TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS IT COULD
BE ANYWHERE FROM MON MORNING TO MON EVENING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT
AND NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE SHOULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS REGARDLESS
OF TIMING. IF THE FRONT ARRIVES LATER AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP COVERAGE WOULD BE INCREASED...AS WOULD THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. FOR NOW FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTION GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO HOLD ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT OVERNIGHT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO FILL IN ONCE AGAIN AS
COOL MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR IFR CIGS IS INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT AFTER 09Z. ALONG THE COAST...
1-2KFT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
BY DAYBREAK CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KCRE/KMYR. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMS THIS MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH A REMNANT FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EMERGE DURING THE AFTN HOURS
AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL
NEAR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD. BUT ATTM...IT APPEARS THE WIND SHIFT
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER
AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE ON TUES AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY BACK NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
SEAS HOLDING BELOW 3 FT TUES. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE E-NE THROUGH
WED EXPECT AN INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16 SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO
4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS IN OUTER WATERS ON WED. THE LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE LOCAL WATERS TUES AFTN PEAKING AROUND 16
SECONDS OVERNIGHT TUES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF SCEC AND SCA HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL MAINTAIN PINCHED
GRADIENT WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 KT AT TIMES. GRADIENT STARTS
TO RELAX A LITTLE SAT AS HIGH ELONGATES. HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL REMAIN A SOLID 15 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT THU NIGHT
OR FRI...MAINLY IN WATERS EXPOSED TO PROLONGED NORTHEAST FLOW.
SHELTERED WATERS MAY SEE AS LOW AS 2 FT. SEAS THU WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING WIND WAVE AND SWELL FROM EDOUARD. SEAS
FRI AND SAT WILL BE WIND WAVE DOMINATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/III/RGZ






000
FXUS62 KILM 160221
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1021 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...THE NCEP PARALLEL VERSION OF THE HRRR HAS AN
EXCELLENT HANDLE ON OBSERVED RADAR ECHOES AND EVEN HAS PICKED UP ON
THE MESOSCALE LANDBREEZE WINDS OBSERVED NEAR THE BEACHES THIS
EVENING. BASED ON ITS EXCELLENT HANDLING OF ACTIVITY SO FAR I HAVE
BLENDED ITS 23Z RUN INTO MOST SENSIBLE FORECAST GRIDS OVERNIGHT. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY THIN OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT AS THE 500
MB TROUGH APPROACHES OUR LONGITUDE LATE TONIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SC COAST. NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO FORECAST LOWS WHICH RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

ONLY TWO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THE EXPECTATION CLOUD COVER WILL IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED WITH ONLY A WEAK NOCTURNAL
INVERSION EXPECTED. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER HEADING TOWARD GEORGETOWN.
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS GEORGETOWN COUNTY FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT LATEST MODELS SHOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE QUITE LOW OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

THICK CLOUDS HAVE KEPT AFTERNOON TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. THESE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND STABILIZES.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL REACH THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUS WILL HAVE TO KEEP SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE
HEAVY GIVEN THE DIMINISHING DEPTH OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

A RATHER FLAT DIURNAL CURVE IS EXPECTED WITH NIGHTTIME VALUES ONLY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW THE HIGHS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS...WE ARE GENERALLY FORECASTING MINIMUMS TO BE NEAR OR
JUST BELOW THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A LINGERING FRONT THAT WAS SOUTH OF AREA
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUES HELPING TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD MERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE SC COAST THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE
AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THE WHOLE SYSTEM OFF
SHORE. THE HIGHEST PCP WATER VALUES WILL CREEP BACK NORTH THROUGH
TUES MORNING REMAINING OVER EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE DECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUES AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
LINGERING FRONT WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PCP WATER VALUES UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ON TUES WILL
DECREASE SLOWLY TO 1.5 INCHES BY WED AND DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH DEEPER
DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 5K FT WILL
PERSIST AND THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME DRIER AIR DOES MAKE IT INTO AREA IN W-NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BY TUES AFTN AND THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES. THE BEST
CHC OF HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS WILL EXIST ON TUES...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SOME PCP IN THE AREA THROUGH WED.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY ON TUES. SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID 80S AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND IN
PLACES THAT SEE SOME BRIGHTENING OF SKIES TUES AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE
LOWER ON WED AS COOLER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDS BLANKETING THE AREA MOST OF
THE TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF COAST EXPANDS EAST. DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRESSIVE
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND FRI WILL HELP PUSH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN
THE COAST THU/FRI OFF THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
AN END TO LOW CLOUDS...BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES...AND THE THREAT
OF PRECIP FOR SAT AND SUN.

WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL CLEAR SKIES AND BRING
ABOUT A RETURN TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...PUSHED BY A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MON. FROPA TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS IT COULD
BE ANYWHERE FROM MON MORNING TO MON EVENING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT
AND NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE SHOULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS REGARDLESS
OF TIMING. IF THE FRONT ARRIVES LATER AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP COVERAGE WOULD BE INCREASED...AS WOULD THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. FOR NOW FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTION GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO HOLD ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING. BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN
AND LOWER TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS COOL MOIST AIR LINGERS OVER OUR
AREA. THE HRRR...SREF PROBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE THAT CIGS AT
KFLO/KLBT WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS AFTER 08Z AND PERSIST THRU
DAYBREAK. COULD ALSO SEE REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO CALM.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY TUE...
AS ANY IFR THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST WOULD BE BRIEF AND MORE
TEMPO IN NATURE. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED VCSH FOR KILM/KCRE/KMYR EARLY
TUE AS DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS WITH A REMNANT FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
AS WELL AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED PERIODS OF IFR OVER A COASTAL TAF SITE. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT VFR DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS LIGHT N-NW WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER
AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...A LANDBREEZE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS INLAND AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 70S BUT
OFFSHORE AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S. THE LIGHT
EASTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS WERE NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS LANDBREEZE
PINNED TO THE BEACHES AND EVEN RADAR SEES THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
COOLER AIR 10 MILES OFF THE COAST AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD. THIS
MESOSCALE WIND CIRCULATION IS GOING TO OVERWHELM THE SYNOPTIC WIND
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE TONIGHT. THE 23Z NCEP PARALLEL VERSION OF THE HRRR CAPTURED
THIS EFFECT QUITE WELL...AND WAS USED AS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST
UPDATE THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
BACK WINDS AROUND MORE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY EARLY THIS EVENING
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS
SHOULD VEER OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS JUST WEST OF
GEORGETOWN WHICH SHOULD AFFECT THE WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF MYRTLE
BEACH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVE WILL VEER AS
HIGH PRESSURE REORIENTS AND A TROUGH REACHES THE AREA TUE MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD TURN TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVE AND THEN ALL THE WAY
AROUND TO A WNW DIRECTION BY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BUILD ON TUE AS SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD BEGIN TO
REACH THE AREA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE ON TUES AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY BACK NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
SEAS HOLDING BELOW 3 FT TUES. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE E-NE THROUGH
WED EXPECT AN INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16 SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO
4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS IN OUTER WATERS ON WED. THE LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE LOCAL WATERS TUES AFTN PEAKING AROUND 16
SECONDS OVERNIGHT TUES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF SCEC AND SCA HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL MAINTAIN PINCHED
GRADIENT WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 KT AT TIMES. GRADIENT STARTS
TO RELAX A LITTLE SAT AS HIGH ELONGATES. HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL REMAIN A SOLID 15 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT THU NIGHT
OR FRI...MAINLY IN WATERS EXPOSED TO PROLONGED NORTHEAST FLOW.
SHELTERED WATERS MAY SEE AS LOW AS 2 FT. SEAS THU WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING WIND WAVE AND SWELL FROM EDOUARD. SEAS
FRI AND SAT WILL BE WIND WAVE DOMINATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 160221
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1021 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...THE NCEP PARALLEL VERSION OF THE HRRR HAS AN
EXCELLENT HANDLE ON OBSERVED RADAR ECHOES AND EVEN HAS PICKED UP ON
THE MESOSCALE LANDBREEZE WINDS OBSERVED NEAR THE BEACHES THIS
EVENING. BASED ON ITS EXCELLENT HANDLING OF ACTIVITY SO FAR I HAVE
BLENDED ITS 23Z RUN INTO MOST SENSIBLE FORECAST GRIDS OVERNIGHT. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY THIN OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT AS THE 500
MB TROUGH APPROACHES OUR LONGITUDE LATE TONIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SC COAST. NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO FORECAST LOWS WHICH RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

ONLY TWO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THE EXPECTATION CLOUD COVER WILL IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED WITH ONLY A WEAK NOCTURNAL
INVERSION EXPECTED. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER HEADING TOWARD GEORGETOWN.
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS GEORGETOWN COUNTY FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT LATEST MODELS SHOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE QUITE LOW OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

THICK CLOUDS HAVE KEPT AFTERNOON TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. THESE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND STABILIZES.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL REACH THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUS WILL HAVE TO KEEP SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE
HEAVY GIVEN THE DIMINISHING DEPTH OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

A RATHER FLAT DIURNAL CURVE IS EXPECTED WITH NIGHTTIME VALUES ONLY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW THE HIGHS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS...WE ARE GENERALLY FORECASTING MINIMUMS TO BE NEAR OR
JUST BELOW THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A LINGERING FRONT THAT WAS SOUTH OF AREA
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUES HELPING TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD MERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE SC COAST THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE
AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THE WHOLE SYSTEM OFF
SHORE. THE HIGHEST PCP WATER VALUES WILL CREEP BACK NORTH THROUGH
TUES MORNING REMAINING OVER EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE DECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUES AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
LINGERING FRONT WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PCP WATER VALUES UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ON TUES WILL
DECREASE SLOWLY TO 1.5 INCHES BY WED AND DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH DEEPER
DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 5K FT WILL
PERSIST AND THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME DRIER AIR DOES MAKE IT INTO AREA IN W-NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BY TUES AFTN AND THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES. THE BEST
CHC OF HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS WILL EXIST ON TUES...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SOME PCP IN THE AREA THROUGH WED.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY ON TUES. SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID 80S AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND IN
PLACES THAT SEE SOME BRIGHTENING OF SKIES TUES AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE
LOWER ON WED AS COOLER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDS BLANKETING THE AREA MOST OF
THE TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF COAST EXPANDS EAST. DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRESSIVE
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND FRI WILL HELP PUSH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN
THE COAST THU/FRI OFF THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
AN END TO LOW CLOUDS...BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES...AND THE THREAT
OF PRECIP FOR SAT AND SUN.

WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL CLEAR SKIES AND BRING
ABOUT A RETURN TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...PUSHED BY A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MON. FROPA TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS IT COULD
BE ANYWHERE FROM MON MORNING TO MON EVENING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT
AND NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE SHOULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS REGARDLESS
OF TIMING. IF THE FRONT ARRIVES LATER AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP COVERAGE WOULD BE INCREASED...AS WOULD THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. FOR NOW FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTION GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO HOLD ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING. BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN
AND LOWER TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS COOL MOIST AIR LINGERS OVER OUR
AREA. THE HRRR...SREF PROBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE THAT CIGS AT
KFLO/KLBT WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS AFTER 08Z AND PERSIST THRU
DAYBREAK. COULD ALSO SEE REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO CALM.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY TUE...
AS ANY IFR THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST WOULD BE BRIEF AND MORE
TEMPO IN NATURE. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED VCSH FOR KILM/KCRE/KMYR EARLY
TUE AS DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS WITH A REMNANT FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
AS WELL AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED PERIODS OF IFR OVER A COASTAL TAF SITE. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT VFR DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS LIGHT N-NW WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER
AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...A LANDBREEZE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS INLAND AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 70S BUT
OFFSHORE AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S. THE LIGHT
EASTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS WERE NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS LANDBREEZE
PINNED TO THE BEACHES AND EVEN RADAR SEES THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
COOLER AIR 10 MILES OFF THE COAST AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD. THIS
MESOSCALE WIND CIRCULATION IS GOING TO OVERWHELM THE SYNOPTIC WIND
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE TONIGHT. THE 23Z NCEP PARALLEL VERSION OF THE HRRR CAPTURED
THIS EFFECT QUITE WELL...AND WAS USED AS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST
UPDATE THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
BACK WINDS AROUND MORE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY EARLY THIS EVENING
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS
SHOULD VEER OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS JUST WEST OF
GEORGETOWN WHICH SHOULD AFFECT THE WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF MYRTLE
BEACH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVE WILL VEER AS
HIGH PRESSURE REORIENTS AND A TROUGH REACHES THE AREA TUE MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD TURN TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVE AND THEN ALL THE WAY
AROUND TO A WNW DIRECTION BY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BUILD ON TUE AS SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD BEGIN TO
REACH THE AREA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE ON TUES AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY BACK NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
SEAS HOLDING BELOW 3 FT TUES. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE E-NE THROUGH
WED EXPECT AN INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16 SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO
4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS IN OUTER WATERS ON WED. THE LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE LOCAL WATERS TUES AFTN PEAKING AROUND 16
SECONDS OVERNIGHT TUES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF SCEC AND SCA HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL MAINTAIN PINCHED
GRADIENT WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 KT AT TIMES. GRADIENT STARTS
TO RELAX A LITTLE SAT AS HIGH ELONGATES. HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL REMAIN A SOLID 15 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT THU NIGHT
OR FRI...MAINLY IN WATERS EXPOSED TO PROLONGED NORTHEAST FLOW.
SHELTERED WATERS MAY SEE AS LOW AS 2 FT. SEAS THU WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING WIND WAVE AND SWELL FROM EDOUARD. SEAS
FRI AND SAT WILL BE WIND WAVE DOMINATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 152331
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
730 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...ONLY TWO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN RAISED BY SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THE EXPECTATION CLOUD
COVER WILL IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED WITH
ONLY A WEAK NOCTURNAL INVERSION EXPECTED. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER HEADING
TOWARD GEORGETOWN. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS
GEORGETOWN COUNTY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT LATEST MODELS
SHOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE QUITE
LOW OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

THICK CLOUDS HAVE KEPT AFTERNOON TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. THESE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND STABILIZES.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL REACH THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUS WILL HAVE TO KEEP SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE
HEAVY GIVEN THE DIMINISHING DEPTH OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

A RATHER FLAT DIURNAL CURVE IS EXPECTED WITH NIGHTTIME VALUES ONLY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW THE HIGHS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS...WE ARE GENERALLY FORECASTING MINIMUMS TO BE NEAR OR
JUST BELOW THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A LINGERING FRONT THAT WAS SOUTH OF AREA
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUES HELPING TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD MERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE SC COAST THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE
AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THE WHOLE SYSTEM OFF
SHORE. THE HIGHEST PCP WATER VALUES WILL CREEP BACK NORTH THROUGH
TUES MORNING REMAINING OVER EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE DECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUES AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
LINGERING FRONT WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PCP WATER VALUES UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ON TUES WILL
DECREASE SLOWLY TO 1.5 INCHES BY WED AND DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH DEEPER
DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 5K FT WILL
PERSIST AND THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME DRIER AIR DOES MAKE IT INTO AREA IN W-NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BY TUES AFTN AND THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES. THE BEST
CHC OF HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS WILL EXIST ON TUES...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SOME PCP IN THE AREA THROUGH WED.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY ON TUES. SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID 80S AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND IN
PLACES THAT SEE SOME BRIGHTENING OF SKIES TUES AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE
LOWER ON WED AS COOLER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDS BLANKETING THE AREA MOST OF
THE TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF COAST EXPANDS EAST. DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRESSIVE
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND FRI WILL HELP PUSH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN
THE COAST THU/FRI OFF THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
AN END TO LOW CLOUDS...BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES...AND THE THREAT
OF PRECIP FOR SAT AND SUN.

WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL CLEAR SKIES AND BRING
ABOUT A RETURN TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...PUSHED BY A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MON. FROPA TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS IT COULD
BE ANYWHERE FROM MON MORNING TO MON EVENING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT
AND NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE SHOULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS REGARDLESS
OF TIMING. IF THE FRONT ARRIVES LATER AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP COVERAGE WOULD BE INCREASED...AS WOULD THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. FOR NOW FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTION GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO HOLD ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING. BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN
AND LOWER TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS COOL MOIST AIR LINGERS OVER OUR
AREA. THE HRRR...SREF PROBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE THAT CIGS AT
KFLO/KLBT WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS AFTER 08Z AND PERSIST THRU
DAYBREAK. COULD ALSO SEE REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO CALM.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY TUE...
AS ANY IFR THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST WOULD BE BRIEF AND MORE
TEMPO IN NATURE. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED VCSH FOR KILM/KCRE/KMYR EARLY
TUE AS DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS WITH A REMNANT FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
AS WELL AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED PERIODS OF IFR OVER A COASTAL TAF SITE. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT VFR DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS LIGHT N-NW WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER
AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGES WERE TO BACK WINDS AROUND MORE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST.
WIND DIRECTIONS SHOULD VEER OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
T-STORMS JUST WEST OF GEORGETOWN WHICH SHOULD AFFECT THE WATERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVE WILL VEER AS
HIGH PRESSURE REORIENTS AND A TROUGH REACHES THE AREA TUE MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD TURN TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVE AND THEN ALL THE WAY
AROUND TO A WNW DIRECTION BY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BUILD ON TUE AS SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD BEGIN TO
REACH THE AREA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE ON TUES AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY BACK NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
SEAS HOLDING BELOW 3 FT TUES. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE E-NE THROUGH
WED EXPECT AN INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16 SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO
4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS IN OUTER WATERS ON WED. THE LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE LOCAL WATERS TUES AFTN PEAKING AROUND 16
SECONDS OVERNIGHT TUES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF SCEC AND SCA HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL MAINTAIN PINCHED
GRADIENT WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 KT AT TIMES. GRADIENT STARTS
TO RELAX A LITTLE SAT AS HIGH ELONGATES. HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL REMAIN A SOLID 15 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT THU NIGHT
OR FRI...MAINLY IN WATERS EXPOSED TO PROLONGED NORTHEAST FLOW.
SHELTERED WATERS MAY SEE AS LOW AS 2 FT. SEAS THU WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING WIND WAVE AND SWELL FROM EDOUARD. SEAS
FRI AND SAT WILL BE WIND WAVE DOMINATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 152331
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
730 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...ONLY TWO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN RAISED BY SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THE EXPECTATION CLOUD
COVER WILL IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED WITH
ONLY A WEAK NOCTURNAL INVERSION EXPECTED. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER HEADING
TOWARD GEORGETOWN. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS
GEORGETOWN COUNTY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT LATEST MODELS
SHOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE QUITE
LOW OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

THICK CLOUDS HAVE KEPT AFTERNOON TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. THESE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND STABILIZES.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL REACH THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUS WILL HAVE TO KEEP SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE
HEAVY GIVEN THE DIMINISHING DEPTH OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

A RATHER FLAT DIURNAL CURVE IS EXPECTED WITH NIGHTTIME VALUES ONLY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW THE HIGHS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS...WE ARE GENERALLY FORECASTING MINIMUMS TO BE NEAR OR
JUST BELOW THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A LINGERING FRONT THAT WAS SOUTH OF AREA
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUES HELPING TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD MERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE SC COAST THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE
AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THE WHOLE SYSTEM OFF
SHORE. THE HIGHEST PCP WATER VALUES WILL CREEP BACK NORTH THROUGH
TUES MORNING REMAINING OVER EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE DECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUES AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
LINGERING FRONT WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PCP WATER VALUES UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ON TUES WILL
DECREASE SLOWLY TO 1.5 INCHES BY WED AND DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH DEEPER
DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 5K FT WILL
PERSIST AND THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME DRIER AIR DOES MAKE IT INTO AREA IN W-NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BY TUES AFTN AND THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES. THE BEST
CHC OF HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS WILL EXIST ON TUES...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SOME PCP IN THE AREA THROUGH WED.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY ON TUES. SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID 80S AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND IN
PLACES THAT SEE SOME BRIGHTENING OF SKIES TUES AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE
LOWER ON WED AS COOLER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDS BLANKETING THE AREA MOST OF
THE TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF COAST EXPANDS EAST. DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRESSIVE
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND FRI WILL HELP PUSH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN
THE COAST THU/FRI OFF THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
AN END TO LOW CLOUDS...BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES...AND THE THREAT
OF PRECIP FOR SAT AND SUN.

WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL CLEAR SKIES AND BRING
ABOUT A RETURN TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...PUSHED BY A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MON. FROPA TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS IT COULD
BE ANYWHERE FROM MON MORNING TO MON EVENING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT
AND NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE SHOULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS REGARDLESS
OF TIMING. IF THE FRONT ARRIVES LATER AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP COVERAGE WOULD BE INCREASED...AS WOULD THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. FOR NOW FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTION GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO HOLD ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING. BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN
AND LOWER TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS COOL MOIST AIR LINGERS OVER OUR
AREA. THE HRRR...SREF PROBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE THAT CIGS AT
KFLO/KLBT WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS AFTER 08Z AND PERSIST THRU
DAYBREAK. COULD ALSO SEE REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO CALM.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY TUE...
AS ANY IFR THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST WOULD BE BRIEF AND MORE
TEMPO IN NATURE. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED VCSH FOR KILM/KCRE/KMYR EARLY
TUE AS DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS WITH A REMNANT FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
AS WELL AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED PERIODS OF IFR OVER A COASTAL TAF SITE. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT VFR DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS LIGHT N-NW WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER
AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY CHANGES WERE TO BACK WINDS AROUND MORE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST.
WIND DIRECTIONS SHOULD VEER OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
T-STORMS JUST WEST OF GEORGETOWN WHICH SHOULD AFFECT THE WATERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVE WILL VEER AS
HIGH PRESSURE REORIENTS AND A TROUGH REACHES THE AREA TUE MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD TURN TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVE AND THEN ALL THE WAY
AROUND TO A WNW DIRECTION BY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BUILD ON TUE AS SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD BEGIN TO
REACH THE AREA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE ON TUES AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY BACK NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
SEAS HOLDING BELOW 3 FT TUES. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE E-NE THROUGH
WED EXPECT AN INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16 SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO
4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS IN OUTER WATERS ON WED. THE LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE LOCAL WATERS TUES AFTN PEAKING AROUND 16
SECONDS OVERNIGHT TUES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF SCEC AND SCA HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL MAINTAIN PINCHED
GRADIENT WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 KT AT TIMES. GRADIENT STARTS
TO RELAX A LITTLE SAT AS HIGH ELONGATES. HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL REMAIN A SOLID 15 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT THU NIGHT
OR FRI...MAINLY IN WATERS EXPOSED TO PROLONGED NORTHEAST FLOW.
SHELTERED WATERS MAY SEE AS LOW AS 2 FT. SEAS THU WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING WIND WAVE AND SWELL FROM EDOUARD. SEAS
FRI AND SAT WILL BE WIND WAVE DOMINATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 151854
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
254 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LINGERING FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE BEING PUSHED OFF SHORE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...PROVIDING
FALL-LIKE WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THICK CLOUDS HAVE KEPT AFTERNOON TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS THE COLUMN
COOLS AND STABILIZES. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL REACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
THESE FEATURES MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUS WILL HAVE TO KEEP SMALL POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE HEAVY GIVEN THE DIMINISHING DEPTH OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.

A RATHER FLAT DIURNAL CURVE IS EXPECTED WITH NIGHTTIME VALUES ONLY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW THE HIGHS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS...WE ARE GENERALLY FORECASTING MINIMUMS TO BE NEAR OR
JUST BELOW THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A LINGERING FRONT THAT WAS SOUTH OF AREA
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUES HELPING TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD MERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE SC COAST THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE
AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THE WHOLE SYSTEM OFF
SHORE. THE HIGHEST PCP WATER VALUES WILL CREEP BACK NORTH THROUGH
TUES MORNING REMAINING OVER EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE DECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUES AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
LINGERING FRONT WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PCP WATER VALUES UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ON TUES WILL
DECREASE SLOWLY TO 1.5 INCHES BY WED AND DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH DEEPER
DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 5K FT WILL
PERSIST AND THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME DRIER AIR DOES MAKE IT INTO AREA IN W-NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BY TUES AFTN AND THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES. THE BEST
CHC OF HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS WILL EXIST ON TUES...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SOME PCP IN THE AREA THROUGH WED.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY ON TUES. SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID 80S AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND IN
PLACES THAT SEE SOME BRIGHTENING OF SKIES TUES AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE
LOWER ON WED AS COOLER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDS BLANKETING THE AREA MOST OF
THE TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF COAST EXPANDS EAST. DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRESSIVE
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND FRI WILL HELP PUSH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN
THE COAST THU/FRI OFF THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
AN END TO LOW CLOUDS...BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES...AND THE THREAT
OF PRECIP FOR SAT AND SUN.

WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL CLEAR SKIES AND BRING
ABOUT A RETURN TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...PUSHED BY A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MON. FROPA TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS IT COULD
BE ANYWHERE FROM MON MORNING TO MON EVENING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT
AND NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE SHOULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS REGARDLESS
OF TIMING. IF THE FRONT ARRIVES LATER AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP COVERAGE WOULD BE INCREASED...AS WOULD THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. FOR NOW FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTION GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO HOLD ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A BIT OF A TOUGH GO WITH CEILING HEIGHTS...AND TIMING
THE SCATTERING OF THE LOWEST LAYER...IF AT ALL. THE NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING THINGS IFR FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP...AS A WAVE
MOVES UP THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD SOME LIGHT RAIN AND STRATUS
TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
VARIABLE...IF NOT DEAD CALM OVERNIGHT. WEDGE WEAKENS TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. WEDGE INTENSIFIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVE WILL VEER AS
HIGH PRESSURE REORIENTS AND A TROUGH REACHES THE AREA TUE MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD TURN TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVE AND THEN ALL THE WAY
AROUND TO A WNW DIRECTION BY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BUILD ON TUE AS SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD BEGIN TO
REACH THE AREA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE ON TUES AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY BACK NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
SEAS HOLDING BELOW 3 FT TUES. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE E-NE THROUGH
WED EXPECT AN INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16 SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO
4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS IN OUTER WATERS ON WED. THE LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE LOCAL WATERS TUES AFTN PEAKING AROUND 16
SECONDS OVERNIGHT TUES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF SCEC AND SCA HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL MAINTAIN PINCHED
GRADIENT WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 KT AT TIMES. GRADIENT STARTS
TO RELAX A LITTLE SAT AS HIGH ELONGATES. HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL REMAIN A SOLID 15 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT THU NIGHT
OR FRI...MAINLY IN WATERS EXPOSED TO PROLONGED NORTHEAST FLOW.
SHELTERED WATERS MAY SEE AS LOW AS 2 FT. SEAS THU WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING WIND WAVE AND SWELL FROM EDOUARD. SEAS
FRI AND SAT WILL BE WIND WAVE DOMINATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RJD/DL











000
FXUS62 KILM 151854
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
254 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LINGERING FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE BEING PUSHED OFF SHORE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...PROVIDING
FALL-LIKE WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THICK CLOUDS HAVE KEPT AFTERNOON TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS THE COLUMN
COOLS AND STABILIZES. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL REACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
THESE FEATURES MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUS WILL HAVE TO KEEP SMALL POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE HEAVY GIVEN THE DIMINISHING DEPTH OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.

A RATHER FLAT DIURNAL CURVE IS EXPECTED WITH NIGHTTIME VALUES ONLY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW THE HIGHS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS...WE ARE GENERALLY FORECASTING MINIMUMS TO BE NEAR OR
JUST BELOW THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A LINGERING FRONT THAT WAS SOUTH OF AREA
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUES HELPING TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD MERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE SC COAST THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE
AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THE WHOLE SYSTEM OFF
SHORE. THE HIGHEST PCP WATER VALUES WILL CREEP BACK NORTH THROUGH
TUES MORNING REMAINING OVER EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE DECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUES AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
LINGERING FRONT WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PCP WATER VALUES UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ON TUES WILL
DECREASE SLOWLY TO 1.5 INCHES BY WED AND DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH DEEPER
DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 5K FT WILL
PERSIST AND THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME DRIER AIR DOES MAKE IT INTO AREA IN W-NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BY TUES AFTN AND THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES. THE BEST
CHC OF HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS WILL EXIST ON TUES...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SOME PCP IN THE AREA THROUGH WED.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY ON TUES. SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID 80S AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND IN
PLACES THAT SEE SOME BRIGHTENING OF SKIES TUES AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE
LOWER ON WED AS COOLER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDS BLANKETING THE AREA MOST OF
THE TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF COAST EXPANDS EAST. DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRESSIVE
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND FRI WILL HELP PUSH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN
THE COAST THU/FRI OFF THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
AN END TO LOW CLOUDS...BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES...AND THE THREAT
OF PRECIP FOR SAT AND SUN.

WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL CLEAR SKIES AND BRING
ABOUT A RETURN TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...PUSHED BY A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MON. FROPA TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS IT COULD
BE ANYWHERE FROM MON MORNING TO MON EVENING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT
AND NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE SHOULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS REGARDLESS
OF TIMING. IF THE FRONT ARRIVES LATER AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP COVERAGE WOULD BE INCREASED...AS WOULD THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. FOR NOW FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTION GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO HOLD ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A BIT OF A TOUGH GO WITH CEILING HEIGHTS...AND TIMING
THE SCATTERING OF THE LOWEST LAYER...IF AT ALL. THE NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING THINGS IFR FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP...AS A WAVE
MOVES UP THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD SOME LIGHT RAIN AND STRATUS
TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
VARIABLE...IF NOT DEAD CALM OVERNIGHT. WEDGE WEAKENS TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. WEDGE INTENSIFIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVE WILL VEER AS
HIGH PRESSURE REORIENTS AND A TROUGH REACHES THE AREA TUE MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD TURN TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVE AND THEN ALL THE WAY
AROUND TO A WNW DIRECTION BY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BUILD ON TUE AS SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD BEGIN TO
REACH THE AREA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE ON TUES AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY BACK NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
SEAS HOLDING BELOW 3 FT TUES. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE E-NE THROUGH
WED EXPECT AN INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16 SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO
4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS IN OUTER WATERS ON WED. THE LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE LOCAL WATERS TUES AFTN PEAKING AROUND 16
SECONDS OVERNIGHT TUES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF SCEC AND SCA HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL MAINTAIN PINCHED
GRADIENT WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 KT AT TIMES. GRADIENT STARTS
TO RELAX A LITTLE SAT AS HIGH ELONGATES. HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL REMAIN A SOLID 15 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT THU NIGHT
OR FRI...MAINLY IN WATERS EXPOSED TO PROLONGED NORTHEAST FLOW.
SHELTERED WATERS MAY SEE AS LOW AS 2 FT. SEAS THU WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING WIND WAVE AND SWELL FROM EDOUARD. SEAS
FRI AND SAT WILL BE WIND WAVE DOMINATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RJD/DL










000
FXUS62 KILM 151703
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
103 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
TODAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL- LIKE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...12Z RAOBS IN FROM BOTH MHX AND CHS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS THICK ENOUGH THAT ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE
GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. THE TEMPTATION TO NUDGE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST DOWN A FEW DEGREES IS GROWING-MOST MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TOO
WARM YESTERDAY. WILL MAKE DECISION BY NEXT UPDATE. OUR CURRENT POP
FORECAST IS QUITE LOW AND THEREFORE HARD TO ARGUE WITH BUT MAY
TWEAK DOWN A BIT ESP OVER NRN ZONES...TO OPEN UP A SLIGHTLY MORE
PRONOUNCED GRADIENT FAVORING NRN ZONES. PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN PRETTY SCANT IN QPF FORECAST ONCE THIS CURRENT BATCH
MOVES OFF THE GRAND STRAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE
WARRANTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE OF A SHOWERY SCENARIO FOR
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THE
PRIMARY MODE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S DROPPING A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY
ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN INITIALLY WITH MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING
LATE. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHOW CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DRY AND COOL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH WEAKENS AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY MODERATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY POPS ARE RELEGATED TO JUST OFFSHORE WHERE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE WARRANTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A BIT OF A TOUGH GO WITH CEILING HEIGHTS...AND TIMING
THE SCATTERING OF THE LOWEST LAYER...IF AT ALL. THE NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING THINGS IFR FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP...AS A WAVE
MOVES UP THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD SOME LIGHT RAIN AND STRATUS
TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
VARIABLE...IF NOT DEAD CALM OVERNIGHT. WEDGE WEAKENS TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. WEDGE INTENSIFIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET OUT OVER THE WATERS. NO CHANGES
ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUMS THINGS UP NICELY:

AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...MODEL SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND WEAK GRADIENT
SUPPORT A WEAK WEDGE THIS MORNING THAT WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY TO
THE APPROACHING AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH.
LOOKING AT A SLOW VEERING TREND IN THE WIND FIELD...FROM NE THIS
MORNING TO EAST MIDDAY...AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FOR TONIGHT VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND
SPEEDS INITIALLY 10 TO 15 KT DUE TO THE WEDGE...WILL DROP BACK TO
AROUND 10 KT AS THE SFC PG WEAKENS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF 4 TO 5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. IF ANYTHING...WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT AN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY A NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS. SPEEDS WILL BE IN A 15-20 KNOT
RANGE CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY JUST EXCEEDING THE HIGHER END BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...3-5
FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MBB/RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD/DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 151703
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
103 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
TODAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL- LIKE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...12Z RAOBS IN FROM BOTH MHX AND CHS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS THICK ENOUGH THAT ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE
GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. THE TEMPTATION TO NUDGE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST DOWN A FEW DEGREES IS GROWING-MOST MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TOO
WARM YESTERDAY. WILL MAKE DECISION BY NEXT UPDATE. OUR CURRENT POP
FORECAST IS QUITE LOW AND THEREFORE HARD TO ARGUE WITH BUT MAY
TWEAK DOWN A BIT ESP OVER NRN ZONES...TO OPEN UP A SLIGHTLY MORE
PRONOUNCED GRADIENT FAVORING NRN ZONES. PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN PRETTY SCANT IN QPF FORECAST ONCE THIS CURRENT BATCH
MOVES OFF THE GRAND STRAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE
WARRANTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE OF A SHOWERY SCENARIO FOR
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THE
PRIMARY MODE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S DROPPING A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY
ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN INITIALLY WITH MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING
LATE. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHOW CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DRY AND COOL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH WEAKENS AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY MODERATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY POPS ARE RELEGATED TO JUST OFFSHORE WHERE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE WARRANTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A BIT OF A TOUGH GO WITH CEILING HEIGHTS...AND TIMING
THE SCATTERING OF THE LOWEST LAYER...IF AT ALL. THE NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING THINGS IFR FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP...AS A WAVE
MOVES UP THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD SOME LIGHT RAIN AND STRATUS
TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
VARIABLE...IF NOT DEAD CALM OVERNIGHT. WEDGE WEAKENS TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. WEDGE INTENSIFIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET OUT OVER THE WATERS. NO CHANGES
ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUMS THINGS UP NICELY:

AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...MODEL SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND WEAK GRADIENT
SUPPORT A WEAK WEDGE THIS MORNING THAT WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY TO
THE APPROACHING AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH.
LOOKING AT A SLOW VEERING TREND IN THE WIND FIELD...FROM NE THIS
MORNING TO EAST MIDDAY...AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FOR TONIGHT VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND
SPEEDS INITIALLY 10 TO 15 KT DUE TO THE WEDGE...WILL DROP BACK TO
AROUND 10 KT AS THE SFC PG WEAKENS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF 4 TO 5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. IF ANYTHING...WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT AN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY A NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS. SPEEDS WILL BE IN A 15-20 KNOT
RANGE CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY JUST EXCEEDING THE HIGHER END BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...3-5
FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MBB/RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD/DL






000
FXUS62 KILM 151416
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1000 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
TODAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL- LIKE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM MONDAY...12Z RAOBS IN FROM BOTH MHX AND CHS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS THICK ENOUGH THAT ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE GOING TO
BE HARD TO COME BY. THE TEMPTATION TO NUDGE HIGH TEMP FORECAST DOWN
A FEW DEGREES IS GROWING-MOST MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY.
WILL MAKE DECISION BY NEXT UPDATE. OUR CURRENT POP FORECAST IS QUITE
LOW AND THEREFORE HARD TO ARGUE WITH BUT MAY TWEAK DOWN A BIT ESP
OVER NRN ZONES...TO OPEN UP A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED GRADIENT
FAVORING NRN ZONES. PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY SCANT
IN QPF FORECAST ONCE THIS CURRENT BATCH MOVES OFF THE GRAND STRAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE
WARRANTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE OF A SHOWERY SCENARIO FOR
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THE
PRIMARY MODE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S DROPPING A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY
ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN INITIALLY WITH MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING
LATE. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHOW CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DRY AND COOL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH WEAKENS AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY MODERATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY POPS ARE RELEGATED TO JUST OFFSHORE WHERE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE WARRANTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TIME HEIGHT CONFIRMS OBSERVATIONS WITH A MVFR CEILING AT
MOST SPOTS. WITH WEDGE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE...LOOK FOR CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT MYR IN THE
NEAR TERM...BUT THATS ABOUT IT. NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST THIS
MORNING...POSSIBLY REPLACED WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND ALONG THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THAT REGARD.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET OUT OVER THE WATERS. NO CHANGES
ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUMS THINGS UP NICELY:

AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...MODEL SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND WEAK GRADIENT
SUPPORT A WEAK WEDGE THIS MORNING THAT WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY TO
THE APPROACHING AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH.
LOOKING AT A SLOW VEERING TREND IN THE WIND FIELD...FROM NE THIS
MORNING TO EAST MIDDAY...AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FOR TONIGHT VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND
SPEEDS INITIALLY 10 TO 15 KT DUE TO THE WEDGE...WILL DROP BACK TO
AROUND 10 KT AS THE SFC PG WEAKENS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF 4 TO 5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. IF ANYTHING...WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT AN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY A NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS. SPEEDS WILL BE IN A 15-20 KNOT
RANGE CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY JUST EXCEEDING THE HIGHER END BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...3-5
FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43













000
FXUS62 KILM 151416
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1000 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
TODAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL- LIKE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM MONDAY...12Z RAOBS IN FROM BOTH MHX AND CHS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS THICK ENOUGH THAT ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE GOING TO
BE HARD TO COME BY. THE TEMPTATION TO NUDGE HIGH TEMP FORECAST DOWN
A FEW DEGREES IS GROWING-MOST MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY.
WILL MAKE DECISION BY NEXT UPDATE. OUR CURRENT POP FORECAST IS QUITE
LOW AND THEREFORE HARD TO ARGUE WITH BUT MAY TWEAK DOWN A BIT ESP
OVER NRN ZONES...TO OPEN UP A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED GRADIENT
FAVORING NRN ZONES. PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY SCANT
IN QPF FORECAST ONCE THIS CURRENT BATCH MOVES OFF THE GRAND STRAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE
WARRANTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE OF A SHOWERY SCENARIO FOR
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THE
PRIMARY MODE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S DROPPING A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY
ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN INITIALLY WITH MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING
LATE. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHOW CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DRY AND COOL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH WEAKENS AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY MODERATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY POPS ARE RELEGATED TO JUST OFFSHORE WHERE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE WARRANTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TIME HEIGHT CONFIRMS OBSERVATIONS WITH A MVFR CEILING AT
MOST SPOTS. WITH WEDGE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE...LOOK FOR CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT MYR IN THE
NEAR TERM...BUT THATS ABOUT IT. NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST THIS
MORNING...POSSIBLY REPLACED WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND ALONG THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THAT REGARD.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET OUT OVER THE WATERS. NO CHANGES
ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUMS THINGS UP NICELY:

AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...MODEL SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND WEAK GRADIENT
SUPPORT A WEAK WEDGE THIS MORNING THAT WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY TO
THE APPROACHING AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH.
LOOKING AT A SLOW VEERING TREND IN THE WIND FIELD...FROM NE THIS
MORNING TO EAST MIDDAY...AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FOR TONIGHT VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND
SPEEDS INITIALLY 10 TO 15 KT DUE TO THE WEDGE...WILL DROP BACK TO
AROUND 10 KT AS THE SFC PG WEAKENS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF 4 TO 5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. IF ANYTHING...WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT AN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY A NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS. SPEEDS WILL BE IN A 15-20 KNOT
RANGE CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY JUST EXCEEDING THE HIGHER END BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...3-5
FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43














000
FXUS62 KILM 151055
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
TODAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL- LIKE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...THE FA WILL MAINLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A LONGWAVE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF. THIS FLATTENED UPPER TROF HAS
PREVENTED THE SFC COLD FRONT FROM PROGRESSING TOO FAR SOUTH DURING
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

AS FOR PCPN THIS MORNING...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FA...WILL INITIALLY BE
THE DRIVING FORCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT BACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...INSOLATION WILL HELP WITH SOME
INCREASING INSTABILITY. LIFT...ALBEIT WEAK...FROM THE LIFTING
FRONT...WILL AID IN THE INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WENT
WITH A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC TROF/COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
BY TUE DAYBREAK. MODELS SOMEWHAT NOISY WITH DYNAMICS ALOFT IE.
ANY EMBEDDED S/W TROF OR VORT...AND THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO JUST
A CHANCE FOR PCPN AND NOT GO ANY HIER AT THE MOMENT. AS FOR
TEMPS...HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH MAX/MIN FCST. WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS...THE WARMER
GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO FOR MAXES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE
WARRANTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE OF A SHOWERY SCENARIO FOR
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THE
PRIMARY MODE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S DROPPING A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY
ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN INITIALLY WITH MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING
LATE. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHOW CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DRY AND COOL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH WEAKENS AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY MODERATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY POPS ARE RELEGATED TO JUST OFFSHORE WHERE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE WARRANTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TIME HEIGHT CONFIRMS OBSERVATIONS WITH A MVFR CEILING AT
MOST SPOTS. WITH WEDGE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE...LOOK FOR CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT MYR IN THE
NEAR TERM...BUT THATS ABOUT IT. NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST THIS
MORNING...POSSIBLY REPLACED WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND ALONG THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THAT REGARD.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...MODEL SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND WEAK GRADIENT
SUPPORT A WEAK WEDGE THIS MORNING THAT WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY TO
THE APPROACHING AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH.
LOOKING AT A SLOW VEERING TREND IN THE WIND FIELD...FROM NE THIS
MORNING TO EAST MIDDAY...AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FOR TONIGHT VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND
SPEEDS INITIALLY 10 TO 15 KT DUE TO THE WEDGE...WILL DROP BACK TO
AROUND 10 KT AS THE SFC PG WEAKENS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF 4 TO 5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. IF ANYTHING...WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT AN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY A NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS. SPEEDS WILL BE IN A 15-20 KNOT
RANGE CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY JUST EXCEEDING THE HIGHER END BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...3-5
FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43










000
FXUS62 KILM 151055
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
TODAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL- LIKE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...THE FA WILL MAINLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A LONGWAVE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF. THIS FLATTENED UPPER TROF HAS
PREVENTED THE SFC COLD FRONT FROM PROGRESSING TOO FAR SOUTH DURING
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

AS FOR PCPN THIS MORNING...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FA...WILL INITIALLY BE
THE DRIVING FORCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT BACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...INSOLATION WILL HELP WITH SOME
INCREASING INSTABILITY. LIFT...ALBEIT WEAK...FROM THE LIFTING
FRONT...WILL AID IN THE INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WENT
WITH A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC TROF/COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
BY TUE DAYBREAK. MODELS SOMEWHAT NOISY WITH DYNAMICS ALOFT IE.
ANY EMBEDDED S/W TROF OR VORT...AND THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO JUST
A CHANCE FOR PCPN AND NOT GO ANY HIER AT THE MOMENT. AS FOR
TEMPS...HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH MAX/MIN FCST. WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS...THE WARMER
GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO FOR MAXES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE
WARRANTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE OF A SHOWERY SCENARIO FOR
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THE
PRIMARY MODE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S DROPPING A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY
ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN INITIALLY WITH MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING
LATE. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHOW CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DRY AND COOL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH WEAKENS AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY MODERATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY POPS ARE RELEGATED TO JUST OFFSHORE WHERE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE WARRANTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TIME HEIGHT CONFIRMS OBSERVATIONS WITH A MVFR CEILING AT
MOST SPOTS. WITH WEDGE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE...LOOK FOR CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT MYR IN THE
NEAR TERM...BUT THATS ABOUT IT. NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST THIS
MORNING...POSSIBLY REPLACED WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND ALONG THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THAT REGARD.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...MODEL SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND WEAK GRADIENT
SUPPORT A WEAK WEDGE THIS MORNING THAT WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY TO
THE APPROACHING AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH.
LOOKING AT A SLOW VEERING TREND IN THE WIND FIELD...FROM NE THIS
MORNING TO EAST MIDDAY...AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FOR TONIGHT VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND
SPEEDS INITIALLY 10 TO 15 KT DUE TO THE WEDGE...WILL DROP BACK TO
AROUND 10 KT AS THE SFC PG WEAKENS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF 4 TO 5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. IF ANYTHING...WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT AN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY A NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS. SPEEDS WILL BE IN A 15-20 KNOT
RANGE CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY JUST EXCEEDING THE HIGHER END BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...3-5
FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KILM 151029
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
629 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
TODAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL- LIKE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...THE FA WILL MAINLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A LONGWAVE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF. THIS FLATTENED UPPER TROF HAS
PREVENTED THE SFC COLD FRONT FROM PROGRESSING TOO FAR SOUTH DURING
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

AS FOR PCPN THIS MORNING...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FA...WILL INITIALLY BE
THE DRIVING FORCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT BACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...INSOLATION WILL HELP WITH SOME
INCREASING INSTABILITY. LIFT...ALBEIT WEAK...FROM THE LIFTING
FRONT...WILL AID IN THE INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WENT
WITH A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC TROF/COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
BY TUE DAYBREAK. MODELS SOMEWHAT NOISY WITH DYNAMICS ALOFT IE.
ANY EMBEDDED S/W TROF OR VORT...AND THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO JUST
A CHANCE FOR PCPN AND NOT GO ANY HIER AT THE MOMENT. AS FOR
TEMPS...HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH MAX/MIN FCST. WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS...THE WARMER
GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO FOR MAXES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE
WARRANTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE OF A SHOWERY SCENARIO FOR
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THE
PRIMARY MODE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S DROPPING A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY
ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN INITIALLY WITH MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING
LATE. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHOW CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DRY AND COOL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH WEAKENS AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY MODERATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY POPS ARE RELEGATED TO JUST OFFSHORE WHERE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE WARRANTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE ILM
SC TERMINALS POSSIBLY OBSERVING CIGS LESS THAN 1K FT IN A 3-5 HR
WINDOW SURROUNDING DAYBREAK MON DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPO
IFR CIGS AT KILM AND ESPECIALLY KLBT...AND MAY INCLUDE A SUB 2K
FOOT CEILING AT LBT AT PRESS TIME. FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A BIG
CONCERN GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS INLAND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FOG MAY BECOME A PLAYER TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE INLAND
TERMINALS...DROPPING VSBYS BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW
STRATUS DECK AS THE MAJOR PLAYER FOR ANY IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE START WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN
TERMS AFTER 20Z AS THE WASHED OUT BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...MODEL SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND WEAK GRADIENT
SUPPORT A WEAK WEDGE THIS MORNING THAT WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY TO
THE APPROACHING AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH.
LOOKING AT A SLOW VEERING TREND IN THE WIND FIELD...FROM NE THIS
MORNING TO EAST MIDDAY...AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FOR TONIGHT VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND
SPEEDS INITIALLY 10 TO 15 KT DUE TO THE WEDGE...WILL DROP BACK TO
AROUND 10 KT AS THE SFC PG WEAKENS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF 4 TO 5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. IF ANYTHING...WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT AN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY A NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS. SPEEDS WILL BE IN A 15-20 KNOT
RANGE CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY JUST EXCEEDING THE HIGHER END BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...3-5
FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 151029
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
629 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
TODAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL- LIKE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...THE FA WILL MAINLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A LONGWAVE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF. THIS FLATTENED UPPER TROF HAS
PREVENTED THE SFC COLD FRONT FROM PROGRESSING TOO FAR SOUTH DURING
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

AS FOR PCPN THIS MORNING...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FA...WILL INITIALLY BE
THE DRIVING FORCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT BACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...INSOLATION WILL HELP WITH SOME
INCREASING INSTABILITY. LIFT...ALBEIT WEAK...FROM THE LIFTING
FRONT...WILL AID IN THE INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WENT
WITH A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC TROF/COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
BY TUE DAYBREAK. MODELS SOMEWHAT NOISY WITH DYNAMICS ALOFT IE.
ANY EMBEDDED S/W TROF OR VORT...AND THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO JUST
A CHANCE FOR PCPN AND NOT GO ANY HIER AT THE MOMENT. AS FOR
TEMPS...HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH MAX/MIN FCST. WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS...THE WARMER
GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO FOR MAXES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE
WARRANTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE OF A SHOWERY SCENARIO FOR
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THE
PRIMARY MODE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S DROPPING A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY
ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN INITIALLY WITH MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING
LATE. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHOW CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DRY AND COOL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH WEAKENS AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY MODERATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY POPS ARE RELEGATED TO JUST OFFSHORE WHERE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE WARRANTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE ILM
SC TERMINALS POSSIBLY OBSERVING CIGS LESS THAN 1K FT IN A 3-5 HR
WINDOW SURROUNDING DAYBREAK MON DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPO
IFR CIGS AT KILM AND ESPECIALLY KLBT...AND MAY INCLUDE A SUB 2K
FOOT CEILING AT LBT AT PRESS TIME. FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A BIG
CONCERN GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS INLAND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FOG MAY BECOME A PLAYER TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE INLAND
TERMINALS...DROPPING VSBYS BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW
STRATUS DECK AS THE MAJOR PLAYER FOR ANY IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE START WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN
TERMS AFTER 20Z AS THE WASHED OUT BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...MODEL SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND WEAK GRADIENT
SUPPORT A WEAK WEDGE THIS MORNING THAT WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY TO
THE APPROACHING AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH.
LOOKING AT A SLOW VEERING TREND IN THE WIND FIELD...FROM NE THIS
MORNING TO EAST MIDDAY...AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FOR TONIGHT VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND
SPEEDS INITIALLY 10 TO 15 KT DUE TO THE WEDGE...WILL DROP BACK TO
AROUND 10 KT AS THE SFC PG WEAKENS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF 4 TO 5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. IF ANYTHING...WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT AN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY A NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS. SPEEDS WILL BE IN A 15-20 KNOT
RANGE CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY JUST EXCEEDING THE HIGHER END BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...3-5
FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/BJR








000
FXUS62 KILM 150835
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
435 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
TODAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL- LIKE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE FA MAINLY UNDER A LONGWAVE LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROF. THIS FLATTENED UPPER TROF HAS PREVENTED THE SFC COLD
FRONT FROM PROGRESSING TOO FAR SOUTH DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

AS FOR PCPN THIS MORNING...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FA...WILL INITIALLY BE
THE DRIVING FORCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REVERSE COURSE TODAY AND LIFT BACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME SLOWLY DISSIPATING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...INSOLATION
WILL HELP WITH SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY. LIFT...ALBEIT
WEAK...FROM THE LIFTING FRONT...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENG. FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC TROF/COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST BY TUE DAYBREAK. MODELS SOMEWHAT NOISY WITH DYNAMICS ALOFT
IE. EMBEDDED S/W TROF OR VORT...IN THAT WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE
FOR PCPN AND NOT GO ANY HIER AT THE MOMENT. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN
FCST. WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS...THE WARMER GFS MAY BE
THE WAY TO GO FOR MAXES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE
WARRANTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE OF A SHOWERY SCENARIO FOR
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THE
PRIMARY MODE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S DROPPING A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY
ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN INITIALLY WITH MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING
LATE. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHOW CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DRY AND COOL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH WEAKENS AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY MODERATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY POPS ARE RELEGATED TO JUST OFFSHORE WHERE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE WARRANTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE ILM
SC TERMINALS POSSIBLY OBSERVING CIGS LESS THAN 1K FT IN A 3-5 HR
WINDOW SURROUNDING DAYBREAK MON DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPO
IFR CIGS AT KILM AND ESPECIALLY KLBT...AND MAY INCLUDE A SUB 2K
FOOT CEILING AT LBT AT PRESS TIME. FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A BIG
CONCERN GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS INLAND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FOG MAY BECOME A PLAYER TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE INLAND
TERMINALS...DROPPING VSBYS BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW
STRATUS DECK AS THE MAJOR PLAYER FOR ANY IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE START WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN
TERMS AFTER 20Z AS THE WASHED OUT BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MODEL SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND WEAK GRADIENT
SUPPORT A WEAK WEDGE THIS MORNING THAT WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY TO
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH. LOOKING AT A SLOW
VEERING TREND IN THE WIND FIELD...FROM NE THIS MORNING TO EAST
MIDDAY...AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR
TONIGHT VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME WESTERLY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND SPEEDS
INITIALLY 10 TO 15 KT DUE TO THE WEDGE...WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND
10 KT AS THE SFC PG WEAKENS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT
WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF 4 TO 5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. IF ANYTHING...WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT AN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY A NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS. SPEEDS WILL BE IN A 15-20 KNOT
RANGE CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY JUST EXCEEDING THE HIGHER END BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...3-5
FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 150835
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
435 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
TODAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL- LIKE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE FA MAINLY UNDER A LONGWAVE LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROF. THIS FLATTENED UPPER TROF HAS PREVENTED THE SFC COLD
FRONT FROM PROGRESSING TOO FAR SOUTH DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

AS FOR PCPN THIS MORNING...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FA...WILL INITIALLY BE
THE DRIVING FORCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REVERSE COURSE TODAY AND LIFT BACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME SLOWLY DISSIPATING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...INSOLATION
WILL HELP WITH SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY. LIFT...ALBEIT
WEAK...FROM THE LIFTING FRONT...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENG. FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC TROF/COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST BY TUE DAYBREAK. MODELS SOMEWHAT NOISY WITH DYNAMICS ALOFT
IE. EMBEDDED S/W TROF OR VORT...IN THAT WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE
FOR PCPN AND NOT GO ANY HIER AT THE MOMENT. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN
FCST. WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS...THE WARMER GFS MAY BE
THE WAY TO GO FOR MAXES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE
WARRANTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE OF A SHOWERY SCENARIO FOR
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THE
PRIMARY MODE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S DROPPING A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY
ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN INITIALLY WITH MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING
LATE. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHOW CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DRY AND COOL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH WEAKENS AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY MODERATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY POPS ARE RELEGATED TO JUST OFFSHORE WHERE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE WARRANTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE ILM
SC TERMINALS POSSIBLY OBSERVING CIGS LESS THAN 1K FT IN A 3-5 HR
WINDOW SURROUNDING DAYBREAK MON DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPO
IFR CIGS AT KILM AND ESPECIALLY KLBT...AND MAY INCLUDE A SUB 2K
FOOT CEILING AT LBT AT PRESS TIME. FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A BIG
CONCERN GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS INLAND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FOG MAY BECOME A PLAYER TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE INLAND
TERMINALS...DROPPING VSBYS BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW
STRATUS DECK AS THE MAJOR PLAYER FOR ANY IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE START WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN
TERMS AFTER 20Z AS THE WASHED OUT BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MODEL SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND WEAK GRADIENT
SUPPORT A WEAK WEDGE THIS MORNING THAT WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY TO
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH. LOOKING AT A SLOW
VEERING TREND IN THE WIND FIELD...FROM NE THIS MORNING TO EAST
MIDDAY...AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR
TONIGHT VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME WESTERLY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND SPEEDS
INITIALLY 10 TO 15 KT DUE TO THE WEDGE...WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND
10 KT AS THE SFC PG WEAKENS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT
WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF 4 TO 5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. IF ANYTHING...WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT AN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY A NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS. SPEEDS WILL BE IN A 15-20 KNOT
RANGE CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY JUST EXCEEDING THE HIGHER END BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...3-5
FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 150822
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
422 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
TODAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL- LIKE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE FA MAINLY UNDER A LONGWAVE LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROF. THIS FLATTENED UPPER TROF HAS PREVENTED THE SFC COLD
FRONT FROM PROGRESSING TOO FAR SOUTH DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

AS FOR PCPN THIS MORNING...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FA...WILL INITIALLY BE
THE DRIVING FORCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REVERSE COURSE TODAY AND LIFT BACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME SLOWLY DISSIPATING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...INSOLATION
WILL HELP WITH SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY. LIFT...ALBEIT
WEAK...FROM THE LIFTING FRONT...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENG. FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC TROF/COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST BY TUE DAYBREAK. MODELS SOMEWHAT NOISY WITH DYNAMICS ALOFT
IE. EMBEDDED S/W TROF OR VORT...IN THAT WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE
FOR PCPN AND NOT GO ANY HIER AT THE MOMENT. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN
FCST. WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS...THE WARMER GFS MAY BE
THE WAY TO GO FOR MAXES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE
WARRANTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE OF A SHOWERY SCENARIO FOR
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THE
PRIMARY MODE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S DROPPING A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY
ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN INITIALLY WITH MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING
LATE. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHOW CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DRY AND COOL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH WEAKENS AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY MODERATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY POPS ARE RELEGATED TO JUST OFFSHORE WHERE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE WARRANTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE ILM
SC TERMINALS POSSIBLY OBSERVING CIGS LESS THAN 1K FT IN A 3-5 HR
WINDOW SURROUNDING DAYBREAK MON DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPO
IFR CIGS AT KILM AND ESPECIALLY KLBT...AND MAY INCLUDE A SUB 2K
FOOT CEILING AT LBT AT PRESS TIME. FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A BIG
CONCERN GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS INLAND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FOG MAY BECOME A PLAYER TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE INLAND
TERMINALS...DROPPING VSBYS BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW
STRATUS DECK AS THE MAJOR PLAYER FOR ANY IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE START WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN
TERMS AFTER 20Z AS THE WASHED OUT BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED THREE HOURS AGO. THIS LATEST FORECAST UPDATE DELAYS THE
IMPROVING TREND BY A FEW HOURS BUT OTHERWISE TRENDS ARE INTACT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

THE NE SURGE IS ON ITS LAST LEGS WITH RECENT GUSTS STILL REPORTED AS
HIGH AS 14 KNOTS AT BALD HEAD ISLAND AND 19 KNOTS AT THE OFFSHORE
LEJEUNE BUOY. I HAVE ADJUSTED SEAS UPWARD BY ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR BASED ON BUOY
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE WIND-SPEEDS SHOULD ABATE SEVERAL KNOTS AS THE SURGE PLAYS OUT BUT
COUNT ON 15 KT OF WIND OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY GOING MORE TO THE N INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FEET EXCEPT 3-4 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SEAS A MIX OF ENE WAVES 2-2.5 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MIST COULD LIMIT VSBYS
EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NC WATERS. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION
STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. IF ANYTHING...WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT AN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY A NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS. SPEEDS WILL BE IN A 15-20 KNOT
RANGE CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY JUST EXCEEDING THE HIGHER END BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...3-5
FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 150822
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
422 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
TODAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL- LIKE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE FA MAINLY UNDER A LONGWAVE LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROF. THIS FLATTENED UPPER TROF HAS PREVENTED THE SFC COLD
FRONT FROM PROGRESSING TOO FAR SOUTH DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

AS FOR PCPN THIS MORNING...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FA...WILL INITIALLY BE
THE DRIVING FORCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REVERSE COURSE TODAY AND LIFT BACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME SLOWLY DISSIPATING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...INSOLATION
WILL HELP WITH SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY. LIFT...ALBEIT
WEAK...FROM THE LIFTING FRONT...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE FOR PCPN THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENG. FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC TROF/COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST BY TUE DAYBREAK. MODELS SOMEWHAT NOISY WITH DYNAMICS ALOFT
IE. EMBEDDED S/W TROF OR VORT...IN THAT WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE
FOR PCPN AND NOT GO ANY HIER AT THE MOMENT. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN
FCST. WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS...THE WARMER GFS MAY BE
THE WAY TO GO FOR MAXES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE
WARRANTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE OF A SHOWERY SCENARIO FOR
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THE
PRIMARY MODE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S DROPPING A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY
ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN INITIALLY WITH MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING
LATE. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHOW CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DRY AND COOL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH WEAKENS AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY MODERATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY POPS ARE RELEGATED TO JUST OFFSHORE WHERE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE WARRANTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE ILM
SC TERMINALS POSSIBLY OBSERVING CIGS LESS THAN 1K FT IN A 3-5 HR
WINDOW SURROUNDING DAYBREAK MON DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPO
IFR CIGS AT KILM AND ESPECIALLY KLBT...AND MAY INCLUDE A SUB 2K
FOOT CEILING AT LBT AT PRESS TIME. FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A BIG
CONCERN GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS INLAND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FOG MAY BECOME A PLAYER TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE INLAND
TERMINALS...DROPPING VSBYS BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW
STRATUS DECK AS THE MAJOR PLAYER FOR ANY IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE START WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN
TERMS AFTER 20Z AS THE WASHED OUT BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED THREE HOURS AGO. THIS LATEST FORECAST UPDATE DELAYS THE
IMPROVING TREND BY A FEW HOURS BUT OTHERWISE TRENDS ARE INTACT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

THE NE SURGE IS ON ITS LAST LEGS WITH RECENT GUSTS STILL REPORTED AS
HIGH AS 14 KNOTS AT BALD HEAD ISLAND AND 19 KNOTS AT THE OFFSHORE
LEJEUNE BUOY. I HAVE ADJUSTED SEAS UPWARD BY ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR BASED ON BUOY
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE WIND-SPEEDS SHOULD ABATE SEVERAL KNOTS AS THE SURGE PLAYS OUT BUT
COUNT ON 15 KT OF WIND OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY GOING MORE TO THE N INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FEET EXCEPT 3-4 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SEAS A MIX OF ENE WAVES 2-2.5 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MIST COULD LIMIT VSBYS
EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NC WATERS. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION
STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. IF ANYTHING...WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT AN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY A NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS. SPEEDS WILL BE IN A 15-20 KNOT
RANGE CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY JUST EXCEEDING THE HIGHER END BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...3-5
FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 150712
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
312 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
TODAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL- LIKE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...IT CERTAINLY FEELS LIKE THE BEGINNING OF FALL.
A FEW MINUTES RECENTLY SPENT OUT IN THE NWS OFFICE PARKING LOT
REVEALS LOW CLOUDS...A COOL NE BREEZE...AND THE FREQUENT CHIRPS
OF MIGRATING WARBLERS OVERHEAD. THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED. I
DID ADD SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY CLIMBS
BEYOND 90 PERCENT AND CLOUD BASES FALL BELOW 1500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE 1500-7000 FOOT LAYER. WEAK WARM ADVECTION EXTENDING
DOWN AS LOW AS 925 MB LATE WILL CREATE TRANSITORY PATCHES OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K THETA SURFACE WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SANTEE
RIVER. BESIDES LOWERING POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR ALL AREAS MOST
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE SURGE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT
LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERED DEWPOINT VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE STABILIZING A COLUMN FROM THE GROUND FLOOR...STILL
CHALKED FULL OF VAPOR CONTENT PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
SCANS. OVER- RUNNING AND WEAK WAVES OF ISENTROPIC OMEGA WILL LIKELY
BRING -RA/-DZ OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO THE AREA BUT NO REAL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST DESPITE VERY WET GROUND AND A WET AIR
MASS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLENTIFUL OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGIME
AND TIME HEIGHT DEPICTIONS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE TONIGHT WILL
FURTHER LOWER THE PROBABILITIES OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR LARGE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THUS PRIMARILY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY AND LOW-END CHANCES. HIGHEST POP VALUES TO RESIDE
EXTREME SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. MIN TEMPS WITH CLOUD COVER AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO THE SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE
WARRANTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE OF A SHOWERY SCENARIO FOR
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THE
PRIMARY MODE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S DROPPING A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY
ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN INITIALLY WITH MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING
LATE. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHOW CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DRY AND COOL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH WEAKENS AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY MODERATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY POPS ARE RELEGATED TO JUST OFFSHORE WHERE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE WARRANTS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE ILM
SC TERMINALS POSSIBLY OBSERVING CIGS LESS THAN 1K FT IN A 3-5 HR
WINDOW SURROUNDING DAYBREAK MON DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPO
IFR CIGS AT KILM AND ESPECIALLY KLBT...AND MAY INCLUDE A SUB 2K
FOOT CEILING AT LBT AT PRESS TIME. FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A BIG
CONCERN GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS INLAND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FOG MAY BECOME A PLAYER TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE INLAND
TERMINALS...DROPPING VSBYS BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW
STRATUS DECK AS THE MAJOR PLAYER FOR ANY IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE START WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN
TERMS AFTER 20Z AS THE WASHED OUT BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED THREE HOURS AGO. THIS LATEST FORECAST UPDATE DELAYS THE
IMPROVING TREND BY A FEW HOURS BUT OTHERWISE TRENDS ARE INTACT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

THE NE SURGE IS ON ITS LAST LEGS WITH RECENT GUSTS STILL REPORTED AS
HIGH AS 14 KNOTS AT BALD HEAD ISLAND AND 19 KNOTS AT THE OFFSHORE
LEJEUNE BUOY. I HAVE ADJUSTED SEAS UPWARD BY ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR BASED ON BUOY
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE WIND-SPEEDS SHOULD ABATE SEVERAL KNOTS AS THE SURGE PLAYS OUT BUT
COUNT ON 15 KT OF WIND OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY GOING MORE TO THE N INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FEET EXCEPT 3-4 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SEAS A MIX OF ENE WAVES 2-2.5 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MIST COULD LIMIT VSBYS
EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NC WATERS. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION
STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. IF ANYTHING...WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT AN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY A NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS. SPEEDS WILL BE IN A 15-20 KNOT
RANGE CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY JUST EXCEEDING THE HIGHER END BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...3-5
FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/BJR








000
FXUS62 KILM 150712
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
312 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
TODAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL- LIKE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...IT CERTAINLY FEELS LIKE THE BEGINNING OF FALL.
A FEW MINUTES RECENTLY SPENT OUT IN THE NWS OFFICE PARKING LOT
REVEALS LOW CLOUDS...A COOL NE BREEZE...AND THE FREQUENT CHIRPS
OF MIGRATING WARBLERS OVERHEAD. THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED. I
DID ADD SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY CLIMBS
BEYOND 90 PERCENT AND CLOUD BASES FALL BELOW 1500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE 1500-7000 FOOT LAYER. WEAK WARM ADVECTION EXTENDING
DOWN AS LOW AS 925 MB LATE WILL CREATE TRANSITORY PATCHES OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K THETA SURFACE WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SANTEE
RIVER. BESIDES LOWERING POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR ALL AREAS MOST
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE SURGE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT
LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERED DEWPOINT VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE STABILIZING A COLUMN FROM THE GROUND FLOOR...STILL
CHALKED FULL OF VAPOR CONTENT PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
SCANS. OVER- RUNNING AND WEAK WAVES OF ISENTROPIC OMEGA WILL LIKELY
BRING -RA/-DZ OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO THE AREA BUT NO REAL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST DESPITE VERY WET GROUND AND A WET AIR
MASS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLENTIFUL OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGIME
AND TIME HEIGHT DEPICTIONS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE TONIGHT WILL
FURTHER LOWER THE PROBABILITIES OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR LARGE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THUS PRIMARILY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY AND LOW-END CHANCES. HIGHEST POP VALUES TO RESIDE
EXTREME SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. MIN TEMPS WITH CLOUD COVER AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO THE SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE
WARRANTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE OF A SHOWERY SCENARIO FOR
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THE
PRIMARY MODE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S DROPPING A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY
ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN INITIALLY WITH MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING
LATE. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHOW CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DRY AND COOL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH WEAKENS AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY MODERATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY POPS ARE RELEGATED TO JUST OFFSHORE WHERE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE WARRANTS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE ILM
SC TERMINALS POSSIBLY OBSERVING CIGS LESS THAN 1K FT IN A 3-5 HR
WINDOW SURROUNDING DAYBREAK MON DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPO
IFR CIGS AT KILM AND ESPECIALLY KLBT...AND MAY INCLUDE A SUB 2K
FOOT CEILING AT LBT AT PRESS TIME. FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A BIG
CONCERN GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS INLAND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FOG MAY BECOME A PLAYER TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE INLAND
TERMINALS...DROPPING VSBYS BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW
STRATUS DECK AS THE MAJOR PLAYER FOR ANY IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE START WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN
TERMS AFTER 20Z AS THE WASHED OUT BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED THREE HOURS AGO. THIS LATEST FORECAST UPDATE DELAYS THE
IMPROVING TREND BY A FEW HOURS BUT OTHERWISE TRENDS ARE INTACT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

THE NE SURGE IS ON ITS LAST LEGS WITH RECENT GUSTS STILL REPORTED AS
HIGH AS 14 KNOTS AT BALD HEAD ISLAND AND 19 KNOTS AT THE OFFSHORE
LEJEUNE BUOY. I HAVE ADJUSTED SEAS UPWARD BY ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR BASED ON BUOY
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE WIND-SPEEDS SHOULD ABATE SEVERAL KNOTS AS THE SURGE PLAYS OUT BUT
COUNT ON 15 KT OF WIND OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY GOING MORE TO THE N INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FEET EXCEPT 3-4 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SEAS A MIX OF ENE WAVES 2-2.5 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MIST COULD LIMIT VSBYS
EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NC WATERS. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION
STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. IF ANYTHING...WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT AN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY A NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS. SPEEDS WILL BE IN A 15-20 KNOT
RANGE CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY JUST EXCEEDING THE HIGHER END BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...3-5
FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/BJR









000
FXUS62 KILM 150558
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
158 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
MONDAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...IT CERTAINLY FEELS LIKE THE BEGINNING OF FALL.
A FEW MINUTES RECENTLY SPENT OUT IN THE NWS OFFICE PARKING LOT
REVEALS LOW CLOUDS...A COOL NE BREEZE...AND THE FREQUENT CHIRPS
OF MIGRATING WARBLERS OVERHEAD. THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED. I
DID ADD SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY CLIMBS
BEYOND 90 PERCENT AND CLOUD BASES FALL BELOW 1500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE 1500-7000 FOOT LAYER. WEAK WARM ADVECTION EXTENDING
DOWN AS LOW AS 925 MB LATE WILL CREATE TRANSITORY PATCHES OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K THETA SURFACE WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SANTEE
RIVER. BESIDES LOWERING POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR ALL AREAS MOST
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE SURGE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT
LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERED DEWPOINT VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE STABILIZING A COLUMN FROM THE GROUND FLOOR...STILL
CHALKED FULL OF VAPOR CONTENT PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
SCANS. OVER- RUNNING AND WEAK WAVES OF ISENTROPIC OMEGA WILL LIKELY
BRING -RA/-DZ OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO THE AREA BUT NO REAL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST DESPITE VERY WET GROUND AND A WET AIR
MASS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLENTIFUL OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGIME
AND TIME HEIGHT DEPICTIONS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE TONIGHT WILL
FURTHER LOWER THE PROBABILITIES OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR LARGE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THUS PRIMARILY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY AND LOW-END CHANCES. HIGHEST POP VALUES TO RESIDE
EXTREME SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. MIN TEMPS WITH CLOUD COVER AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO THE SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH
WHILE WASHING OUT CONSIDERABLY. THE END RESULT LOCALLY WILL BE A
REBOUNDING OF TEMPERATURES DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. THE RISE IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY ALSO WASH BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS MAY BE OVERDONE IN MODEL GUIDANCE
GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF ANY FORCING NOT TO MENTION THE LACK OF
APPRECIABLE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY SLATED FOR A TUESDAY PASSAGE NOW
LOOKS SLOWER DUE IN PART TO A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BUT ALSO DUE
TO THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE BOUNDARY. EVEN
SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME DURING THE DAY IN THE HUMID
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE COAST SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT DEEPER. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAK FORCING AND LARGER STORM MOTION
VALUES THAN THOSE OF RECENT DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
ALOFT THE 5H TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL
STRENGTHEN A BIT...EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
WED WILL BE REINFORCED THU AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP IS NOT IDEAL THE
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD AND POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE AREA
MID WEEK. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND FRI/SAT
SETTING UP A MORE CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DECREASES AND CLOUDS DECREASE. THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUN BUT AN ELONGATED PORTION OF THE HIGH REMAINS
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST IS
INCREASING AS THE GFS/ECMWF COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH EVEN HERE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WED/THU
COULD LEAD TO AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. THE STALLED FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LOW ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE REGION. DO NOT PLAN MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES
TO INHERITED POP FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHC LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST TO
DRY INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE ILM
SC TERMINALS POSSIBLY OBSERVING CIGS LESS THAN 1K FT IN A 3-5 HR
WINDOW SURROUNDING DAYBREAK MON DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPO
IFR CIGS AT KILM AND ESPECIALLY KLBT...AND MAY INCLUDE A SUB 2K
FOOT CEILING AT LBT AT PRESS TIME. FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A BIG
CONCERN GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS INLAND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FOG MAY BECOME A PLAYER TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE INLAND
TERMINALS...DROPPING VSBYS BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW
STRATUS DECK AS THE MAJOR PLAYER FOR ANY IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE START WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN
TERMS AFTER 20Z AS THE WASHED OUT BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED THREE HOURS AGO. THIS LATEST FORECAST UPDATE DELAYS THE
IMPROVING TREND BY A FEW HOURS BUT OTHERWISE TRENDS ARE INTACT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

THE NE SURGE IS ON ITS LAST LEGS WITH RECENT GUSTS STILL REPORTED AS
HIGH AS 14 KNOTS AT BALD HEAD ISLAND AND 19 KNOTS AT THE OFFSHORE
LEJEUNE BUOY. I HAVE ADJUSTED SEAS UPWARD BY ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR BASED ON BUOY
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE WIND-SPEEDS SHOULD ABATE SEVERAL KNOTS AS THE SURGE PLAYS OUT BUT
COUNT ON 15 KT OF WIND OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY GOING MORE TO THE N INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FEET EXCEPT 3-4 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SEAS A MIX OF ENE WAVES 2-2.5 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MIST COULD LIMIT VSBYS
EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NC WATERS. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION
STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAKENING/DISSOLVING FRONT TO MAKE FOR SOME VERY
LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY. INITIALLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY, THEY WILL
THEN TEND TO VEER AS THE DAY WEARS ON, WITH THIS VEER MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT HIGHEST
AWAY FROM SHORE. A LIGHT PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GET
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WAS ORIGINALLY SLATED FOR
TUESDAY BUT NOW LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALSO TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DURING ITS TUESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. BOTH
FACTORS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWER SENSE OF VEERING. A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED IT SEEMS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOCAL SWAN IMPLIED A NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NE WIND WAVE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MUCH PREFER THE SUB-SCEC SEAS ADVERTISED IN EARLIER
FORECAST GIVEN THAT POST FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE EXCEEDING
15KT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD
FRONT WILL STEADILY INCREASE WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH.
WINDS START OUT 10 TO 15 KT BUT BY MIDDAY SHOULD BE A SOLID 15 KT.
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON STALLED FRONT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
SOUTH WILL FURTHER PINCH THE GRADIENT LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON FRI AS HIGH
CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST WITH NORTHEAST FLOW APPROACHING 25
KT. SEAS START OUT 3 TO 6 FT BUT COULD BUILD TO 7 FT IN PLACES AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD REACHES
THE WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 150558
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
158 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
MONDAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...IT CERTAINLY FEELS LIKE THE BEGINNING OF FALL.
A FEW MINUTES RECENTLY SPENT OUT IN THE NWS OFFICE PARKING LOT
REVEALS LOW CLOUDS...A COOL NE BREEZE...AND THE FREQUENT CHIRPS
OF MIGRATING WARBLERS OVERHEAD. THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED. I
DID ADD SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY CLIMBS
BEYOND 90 PERCENT AND CLOUD BASES FALL BELOW 1500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE 1500-7000 FOOT LAYER. WEAK WARM ADVECTION EXTENDING
DOWN AS LOW AS 925 MB LATE WILL CREATE TRANSITORY PATCHES OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K THETA SURFACE WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SANTEE
RIVER. BESIDES LOWERING POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR ALL AREAS MOST
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE SURGE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT
LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERED DEWPOINT VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE STABILIZING A COLUMN FROM THE GROUND FLOOR...STILL
CHALKED FULL OF VAPOR CONTENT PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
SCANS. OVER- RUNNING AND WEAK WAVES OF ISENTROPIC OMEGA WILL LIKELY
BRING -RA/-DZ OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO THE AREA BUT NO REAL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST DESPITE VERY WET GROUND AND A WET AIR
MASS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLENTIFUL OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGIME
AND TIME HEIGHT DEPICTIONS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE TONIGHT WILL
FURTHER LOWER THE PROBABILITIES OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR LARGE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THUS PRIMARILY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY AND LOW-END CHANCES. HIGHEST POP VALUES TO RESIDE
EXTREME SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. MIN TEMPS WITH CLOUD COVER AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO THE SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH
WHILE WASHING OUT CONSIDERABLY. THE END RESULT LOCALLY WILL BE A
REBOUNDING OF TEMPERATURES DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. THE RISE IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY ALSO WASH BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS MAY BE OVERDONE IN MODEL GUIDANCE
GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF ANY FORCING NOT TO MENTION THE LACK OF
APPRECIABLE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY SLATED FOR A TUESDAY PASSAGE NOW
LOOKS SLOWER DUE IN PART TO A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BUT ALSO DUE
TO THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE BOUNDARY. EVEN
SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME DURING THE DAY IN THE HUMID
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE COAST SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT DEEPER. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAK FORCING AND LARGER STORM MOTION
VALUES THAN THOSE OF RECENT DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
ALOFT THE 5H TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL
STRENGTHEN A BIT...EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
WED WILL BE REINFORCED THU AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP IS NOT IDEAL THE
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD AND POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE AREA
MID WEEK. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND FRI/SAT
SETTING UP A MORE CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DECREASES AND CLOUDS DECREASE. THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUN BUT AN ELONGATED PORTION OF THE HIGH REMAINS
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST IS
INCREASING AS THE GFS/ECMWF COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH EVEN HERE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WED/THU
COULD LEAD TO AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. THE STALLED FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LOW ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE REGION. DO NOT PLAN MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES
TO INHERITED POP FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHC LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST TO
DRY INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE ILM
SC TERMINALS POSSIBLY OBSERVING CIGS LESS THAN 1K FT IN A 3-5 HR
WINDOW SURROUNDING DAYBREAK MON DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPO
IFR CIGS AT KILM AND ESPECIALLY KLBT...AND MAY INCLUDE A SUB 2K
FOOT CEILING AT LBT AT PRESS TIME. FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A BIG
CONCERN GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS INLAND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FOG MAY BECOME A PLAYER TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE INLAND
TERMINALS...DROPPING VSBYS BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW
STRATUS DECK AS THE MAJOR PLAYER FOR ANY IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE START WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN
TERMS AFTER 20Z AS THE WASHED OUT BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED THREE HOURS AGO. THIS LATEST FORECAST UPDATE DELAYS THE
IMPROVING TREND BY A FEW HOURS BUT OTHERWISE TRENDS ARE INTACT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

THE NE SURGE IS ON ITS LAST LEGS WITH RECENT GUSTS STILL REPORTED AS
HIGH AS 14 KNOTS AT BALD HEAD ISLAND AND 19 KNOTS AT THE OFFSHORE
LEJEUNE BUOY. I HAVE ADJUSTED SEAS UPWARD BY ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR BASED ON BUOY
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE WIND-SPEEDS SHOULD ABATE SEVERAL KNOTS AS THE SURGE PLAYS OUT BUT
COUNT ON 15 KT OF WIND OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY GOING MORE TO THE N INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FEET EXCEPT 3-4 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SEAS A MIX OF ENE WAVES 2-2.5 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MIST COULD LIMIT VSBYS
EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NC WATERS. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION
STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAKENING/DISSOLVING FRONT TO MAKE FOR SOME VERY
LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY. INITIALLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY, THEY WILL
THEN TEND TO VEER AS THE DAY WEARS ON, WITH THIS VEER MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT HIGHEST
AWAY FROM SHORE. A LIGHT PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GET
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WAS ORIGINALLY SLATED FOR
TUESDAY BUT NOW LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALSO TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DURING ITS TUESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. BOTH
FACTORS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWER SENSE OF VEERING. A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED IT SEEMS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOCAL SWAN IMPLIED A NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NE WIND WAVE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MUCH PREFER THE SUB-SCEC SEAS ADVERTISED IN EARLIER
FORECAST GIVEN THAT POST FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE EXCEEDING
15KT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD
FRONT WILL STEADILY INCREASE WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH.
WINDS START OUT 10 TO 15 KT BUT BY MIDDAY SHOULD BE A SOLID 15 KT.
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON STALLED FRONT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
SOUTH WILL FURTHER PINCH THE GRADIENT LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON FRI AS HIGH
CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST WITH NORTHEAST FLOW APPROACHING 25
KT. SEAS START OUT 3 TO 6 FT BUT COULD BUILD TO 7 FT IN PLACES AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD REACHES
THE WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 150223
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1023 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
MONDAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...IT CERTAINLY FEELS LIKE THE BEGINNING OF FALL.
A FEW MINUTES RECENTLY SPENT OUT IN THE NWS OFFICE PARKING LOT
REVEALS LOW CLOUDS...A COOL NE BREEZE...AND THE FREQUENT CHIRPS AND
"TSEEPS" OF MIGRATING WARBLERS OVERHEAD. THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED. I DID
ADD SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY CLIMBS BEYOND
90 PERCENT AND CLOUD BASES FALL BELOW 1500 FEET OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE 1500-7000 FOOT LAYER. WEAK WARM ADVECTION EXTENDING
DOWN AS LOW AS 925 MB LATE WILL CREATE TRANSITORY PATCHES OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K THETA SURFACE WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SANTEE
RIVER. BESIDES LOWERING POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR ALL AREAS MOST
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE SURGE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT
LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERED DEWPOINT VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE STABILIZING A COLUMN FROM THE GROUND FLOOR...STILL
CHALKED FULL OF VAPOR CONTENT PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
SCANS. OVER- RUNNING AND WEAK WAVES OF ISENTROPIC OMEGA WILL LIKELY
BRING -RA/-DZ OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO THE AREA BUT NO REAL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST DESPITE VERY WET GROUND AND A WET AIR
MASS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLENTIFUL OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGIME
AND TIME HEIGHT DEPICTIONS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE TONIGHT WILL
FURTHER LOWER THE PROBABILITIES OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR LARGE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THUS PRIMARILY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY AND LOW-END CHANCES. HIGHEST POP VALUES TO RESIDE
EXTREME SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. MIN TEMPS WITH CLOUD COVER AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO THE SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH
WHILE WASHING OUT CONSIDERABLY. THE END RESULT LOCALLY WILL BE A
REBOUNDING OF TEMPERATURES DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. THE RISE IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY ALSO WASH BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS MAY BE OVERDONE IN MODEL GUIDANCE
GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF ANY FORCING NOT TO MENTION THE LACK OF
APPRECIABLE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY SLATED FOR A TUESDAY PASSAGE NOW
LOOKS SLOWER DUE IN PART TO A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BUT ALSO DUE
TO THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE BOUNDARY. EVEN
SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME DURING THE DAY IN THE HUMID
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE COAST SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT DEEPER. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAK FORCING AND LARGER STORM MOTION
VALUES THAN THOSE OF RECENT DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
ALOFT THE 5H TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL
STRENGTHEN A BIT...EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
WED WILL BE REINFORCED THU AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP IS NOT IDEAL THE
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD AND POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE AREA
MID WEEK. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND FRI/SAT
SETTING UP A MORE CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DECREASES AND CLOUDS DECREASE. THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUN BUT AN ELONGATED PORTION OF THE HIGH REMAINS
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST IS
INCREASING AS THE GFS/ECMWF COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH EVEN HERE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WED/THU
COULD LEAD TO AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. THE STALLED FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LOW ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE REGION. DO NOT PLAN MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES
TO INHERITED POP FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHC LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST TO
DRY INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...1-3KFT MVFR CIGS BLANKET OUR CWA THIS EVENING AS LIGHT
N-NE FLOW REINFORCES A SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS LOWERING TO IFR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHERE
LOWEST CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
KFLO AND KCRE/KMYR WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS DROP BELOW 1KFT AFTER 06Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK MON. TEMPO IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT KILM/KLBT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1-2KFT CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY IFR FOR KILM/KLBT ATTM.
OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA/DZ...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PCPN
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MON MORNING... BUT
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS AFTER MIDDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED THREE HOURS AGO. THIS LATEST FORECAST UPDATE DELAYS THE
IMPROVING TREND BY A FEW HOURS BUT OTHERWISE TRENDS ARE INTACT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

THE NE SURGE IS ON ITS LAST LEGS WITH RECENT GUSTS STILL REPORTED AS
HIGH AS 14 KNOTS AT BALD HEAD ISLAND AND 19 KNOTS AT THE OFFSHORE
LEJEUNE BUOY. I HAVE ADJUSTED SEAS UPWARD BY ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR BASED ON BUOY
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE WIND-SPEEDS SHOULD ABATE SEVERAL KNOTS AS THE SURGE PLAYS OUT BUT
COUNT ON 15 KT OF WIND OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY GOING MORE TO THE N INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FEET EXCEPT 3-4 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SEAS A MIX OF ENE WAVES 2-2.5 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MIST COULD LIMIT VSBYS
EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NC WATERS. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION
STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAKENING/DISSOLVING FRONT TO MAKE FOR SOME VERY
LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY. INITIALLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY, THEY WILL
THEN TEND TO VEER AS THE DAY WEARS ON, WITH THIS VEER MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT HIGHEST
AWAY FROM SHORE. A LIGHT PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GET
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WAS ORIGINALLY SLATED FOR
TUESDAY BUT NOW LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALSO TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DURING ITS TUESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. BOTH
FACTORS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWER SENSE OF VEERING. A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED IT SEEMS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOCAL SWAN IMPLIED A NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NE WIND WAVE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MUCH PREFER THE SUB-SCEC SEAS ADVERTISED IN EARLIER
FORECAST GIVEN THAT POST FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE EXCEEDING
15KT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY....ANTICIPATE SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD
FRONT WILL STEADILY INCREASE WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH.
WINDS START OUT 10 TO 15 KT BUT BY MIDDAY SHOULD BE A SOLID 15 KT.
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON STALLED FRONT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
SOUTH WILL FURTHER PINCH THE GRADIENT LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON FRI AS HIGH
CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST WITH NORTHEAST FLOW APPROACHING 25
KT. SEAS START OUT 3 TO 6 FT BUT COULD BUILD TO 7 FT IN PLACES AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD REACHES
THE WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 150223
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1023 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH
MONDAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...IT CERTAINLY FEELS LIKE THE BEGINNING OF FALL.
A FEW MINUTES RECENTLY SPENT OUT IN THE NWS OFFICE PARKING LOT
REVEALS LOW CLOUDS...A COOL NE BREEZE...AND THE FREQUENT CHIRPS AND
"TSEEPS" OF MIGRATING WARBLERS OVERHEAD. THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED. I DID
ADD SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY CLIMBS BEYOND
90 PERCENT AND CLOUD BASES FALL BELOW 1500 FEET OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE 1500-7000 FOOT LAYER. WEAK WARM ADVECTION EXTENDING
DOWN AS LOW AS 925 MB LATE WILL CREATE TRANSITORY PATCHES OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K THETA SURFACE WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SANTEE
RIVER. BESIDES LOWERING POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR ALL AREAS MOST
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE SURGE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT
LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERED DEWPOINT VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE STABILIZING A COLUMN FROM THE GROUND FLOOR...STILL
CHALKED FULL OF VAPOR CONTENT PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
SCANS. OVER- RUNNING AND WEAK WAVES OF ISENTROPIC OMEGA WILL LIKELY
BRING -RA/-DZ OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO THE AREA BUT NO REAL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST DESPITE VERY WET GROUND AND A WET AIR
MASS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLENTIFUL OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGIME
AND TIME HEIGHT DEPICTIONS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE TONIGHT WILL
FURTHER LOWER THE PROBABILITIES OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR LARGE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THUS PRIMARILY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY AND LOW-END CHANCES. HIGHEST POP VALUES TO RESIDE
EXTREME SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. MIN TEMPS WITH CLOUD COVER AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO THE SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH
WHILE WASHING OUT CONSIDERABLY. THE END RESULT LOCALLY WILL BE A
REBOUNDING OF TEMPERATURES DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. THE RISE IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY ALSO WASH BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS MAY BE OVERDONE IN MODEL GUIDANCE
GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF ANY FORCING NOT TO MENTION THE LACK OF
APPRECIABLE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY SLATED FOR A TUESDAY PASSAGE NOW
LOOKS SLOWER DUE IN PART TO A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BUT ALSO DUE
TO THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE BOUNDARY. EVEN
SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME DURING THE DAY IN THE HUMID
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE COAST SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT DEEPER. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAK FORCING AND LARGER STORM MOTION
VALUES THAN THOSE OF RECENT DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
ALOFT THE 5H TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL
STRENGTHEN A BIT...EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
WED WILL BE REINFORCED THU AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP IS NOT IDEAL THE
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD AND POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE AREA
MID WEEK. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND FRI/SAT
SETTING UP A MORE CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DECREASES AND CLOUDS DECREASE. THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUN BUT AN ELONGATED PORTION OF THE HIGH REMAINS
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST IS
INCREASING AS THE GFS/ECMWF COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH EVEN HERE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WED/THU
COULD LEAD TO AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. THE STALLED FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LOW ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE REGION. DO NOT PLAN MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES
TO INHERITED POP FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHC LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST TO
DRY INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...1-3KFT MVFR CIGS BLANKET OUR CWA THIS EVENING AS LIGHT
N-NE FLOW REINFORCES A SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS LOWERING TO IFR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHERE
LOWEST CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
KFLO AND KCRE/KMYR WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS DROP BELOW 1KFT AFTER 06Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK MON. TEMPO IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT KILM/KLBT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1-2KFT CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY IFR FOR KILM/KLBT ATTM.
OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA/DZ...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PCPN
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MON MORNING... BUT
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS AFTER MIDDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED THREE HOURS AGO. THIS LATEST FORECAST UPDATE DELAYS THE
IMPROVING TREND BY A FEW HOURS BUT OTHERWISE TRENDS ARE INTACT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

THE NE SURGE IS ON ITS LAST LEGS WITH RECENT GUSTS STILL REPORTED AS
HIGH AS 14 KNOTS AT BALD HEAD ISLAND AND 19 KNOTS AT THE OFFSHORE
LEJEUNE BUOY. I HAVE ADJUSTED SEAS UPWARD BY ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR BASED ON BUOY
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE WIND-SPEEDS SHOULD ABATE SEVERAL KNOTS AS THE SURGE PLAYS OUT BUT
COUNT ON 15 KT OF WIND OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY GOING MORE TO THE N INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FEET EXCEPT 3-4 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SEAS A MIX OF ENE WAVES 2-2.5 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MIST COULD LIMIT VSBYS
EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NC WATERS. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION
STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAKENING/DISSOLVING FRONT TO MAKE FOR SOME VERY
LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY. INITIALLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY, THEY WILL
THEN TEND TO VEER AS THE DAY WEARS ON, WITH THIS VEER MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT HIGHEST
AWAY FROM SHORE. A LIGHT PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GET
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WAS ORIGINALLY SLATED FOR
TUESDAY BUT NOW LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALSO TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DURING ITS TUESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. BOTH
FACTORS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWER SENSE OF VEERING. A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED IT SEEMS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOCAL SWAN IMPLIED A NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NE WIND WAVE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MUCH PREFER THE SUB-SCEC SEAS ADVERTISED IN EARLIER
FORECAST GIVEN THAT POST FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE EXCEEDING
15KT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY....ANTICIPATE SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD
FRONT WILL STEADILY INCREASE WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH.
WINDS START OUT 10 TO 15 KT BUT BY MIDDAY SHOULD BE A SOLID 15 KT.
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON STALLED FRONT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
SOUTH WILL FURTHER PINCH THE GRADIENT LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON FRI AS HIGH
CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST WITH NORTHEAST FLOW APPROACHING 25
KT. SEAS START OUT 3 TO 6 FT BUT COULD BUILD TO 7 FT IN PLACES AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD REACHES
THE WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 142319
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
719 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER
WEATHER ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A SLOW
RETURN OF ANY SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE 1500-7000 FOOT LAYER. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION EXTENDING DOWN AS LOW AS 925 MB LATE WILL CREATE
TRANSITORY PATCHES OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K THETA SURFACE
WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE SANTEE RIVER. BESIDES LOWERING POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR
ALL AREAS MOST OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE SURGE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT
LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERED DEWPOINT VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE STABILIZING A COLUMN FROM THE GROUND FLOOR...STILL
CHALKED FULL OF VAPOR CONTENT PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
SCANS. OVER- RUNNING AND WEAK WAVES OF ISENTROPIC OMEGA WILL LIKELY
BRING -RA/-DZ OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO THE AREA BUT NO REAL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST DESPITE VERY WET GROUND AND A WET AIR
MASS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLENTIFUL OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGIME
AND TIME HEIGHT DEPICTIONS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE TONIGHT WILL
FURTHER LOWER THE PROBABILITIES OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR LARGE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THUS PRIMARILY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY AND LOW-END CHANCES. HIGHEST POP VALUES TO RESIDE
EXTREME SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. MIN TEMPS WITH CLOUD COVER AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO THE SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH
WHILE WASHING OUT CONSIDERABLY. THE END RESULT LOCALLY WILL BE A
REBOUNDING OF TEMPERATURES DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. THE RISE IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY ALSO WASH BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS MAY BE OVERDONE IN MODEL GUIDANCE
GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF ANY FORCING NOT TO MENTION THE LACK OF
APPRECIABLE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY SLATED FOR A TUESDAY PASSAGE NOW
LOOKS SLOWER DUE IN PART TO A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BUT ALSO DUE
TO THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE BOUNDARY. EVEN
SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME DURING THE DAY IN THE HUMID
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE COAST SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT DEEPER. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAK FORCING AND LARGER STORM MOTION
VALUES THAN THOSE OF RECENT DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
ALOFT THE 5H TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL
STRENGTHEN A BIT...EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
WED WILL BE REINFORCED THU AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP IS NOT IDEAL THE
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD AND POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE AREA
MID WEEK. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND FRI/SAT
SETTING UP A MORE CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DECREASES AND CLOUDS DECREASE. THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUN BUT AN ELONGATED PORTION OF THE HIGH REMAINS
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST IS
INCREASING AS THE GFS/ECMWF COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH EVEN HERE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WED/THU
COULD LEAD TO AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. THE STALLED FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LOW ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE REGION. DO NOT PLAN MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES
TO INHERITED POP FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHC LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST TO
DRY INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...1-3KFT MVFR CIGS BLANKET OUR CWA THIS EVENING AS LIGHT
N-NE FLOW REINFORCES A SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS LOWERING TO IFR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHERE
LOWEST CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
KFLO AND KCRE/KMYR WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS DROP BELOW 1KFT AFTER 06Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK MON. TEMPO IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT KILM/KLBT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1-2KFT CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY IFR FOR KILM/KLBT ATTM.
OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA/DZ...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PCPN
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MON MORNING... BUT
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS AFTER MIDDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...THE NE SURGE IS ON ITS LAST LEGS WITH RECENT
GUSTS STILL REPORTED AS HIGH AS 14 KNOTS AT BALD HEAD ISLAND AND 19
KNOTS AT THE OFFSHORE LEJEUNE BUOY. I HAVE ADJUSTED SEAS UPWARD BY
ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR
BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE WIND-SPEEDS SHOULD ABATE SEVERAL KNOTS AS THE SURGE PLAYS OUT BUT
COUNT ON 15 KT OF WIND OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY GOING MORE TO THE N INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FEET EXCEPT 3-4 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SEAS A MIX OF ENE WAVES 2-2.5 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MIST COULD LIMIT VSBYS
EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NC WATERS. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION
STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAKENING/DISSOLVING FRONT TO MAKE FOR SOME VERY
LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY. INITIALLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY, THEY WILL
THEN TEND TO VEER AS THE DAY WEARS ON, WITH THIS VEER MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT HIGHEST
AWAY FROM SHORE. A LIGHT PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GET
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WAS ORIGINALLY SLATED FOR
TUESDAY BUT NOW LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALSO TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DURING ITS TUESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. BOTH
FACTORS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWER SENSE OF VEERING. A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED IT SEEMS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOCAL SWAN IMPLIED A NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NE WIND WAVE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MUCH PREFER THE SUB-SCEC SEAS ADVERTISED IN EARLIER
FORECAST GIVEN THAT POST FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE EXCEEDING
15KT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY....ANTICIPATE SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD
FRONT WILL STEADILY INCREASE WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH.
WINDS START OUT 10 TO 15 KT BUT BY MIDDAY SHOULD BE A SOLID 15 KT.
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON STALLED FRONT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
SOUTH WILL FURTHER PINCH THE GRADIENT LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON FRI AS HIGH
CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST WITH NORTHEAST FLOW APPROACHING 25
KT. SEAS START OUT 3 TO 6 FT BUT COULD BUILD TO 7 FT IN PLACES AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD REACHES
THE WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 142319
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
719 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER
WEATHER ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A SLOW
RETURN OF ANY SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE 1500-7000 FOOT LAYER. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION EXTENDING DOWN AS LOW AS 925 MB LATE WILL CREATE
TRANSITORY PATCHES OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K THETA SURFACE
WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE SANTEE RIVER. BESIDES LOWERING POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR
ALL AREAS MOST OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE SURGE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT
LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERED DEWPOINT VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE STABILIZING A COLUMN FROM THE GROUND FLOOR...STILL
CHALKED FULL OF VAPOR CONTENT PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
SCANS. OVER- RUNNING AND WEAK WAVES OF ISENTROPIC OMEGA WILL LIKELY
BRING -RA/-DZ OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO THE AREA BUT NO REAL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST DESPITE VERY WET GROUND AND A WET AIR
MASS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLENTIFUL OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGIME
AND TIME HEIGHT DEPICTIONS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE TONIGHT WILL
FURTHER LOWER THE PROBABILITIES OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR LARGE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THUS PRIMARILY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY AND LOW-END CHANCES. HIGHEST POP VALUES TO RESIDE
EXTREME SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. MIN TEMPS WITH CLOUD COVER AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO THE SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH
WHILE WASHING OUT CONSIDERABLY. THE END RESULT LOCALLY WILL BE A
REBOUNDING OF TEMPERATURES DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. THE RISE IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY ALSO WASH BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS MAY BE OVERDONE IN MODEL GUIDANCE
GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF ANY FORCING NOT TO MENTION THE LACK OF
APPRECIABLE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY SLATED FOR A TUESDAY PASSAGE NOW
LOOKS SLOWER DUE IN PART TO A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BUT ALSO DUE
TO THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE BOUNDARY. EVEN
SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME DURING THE DAY IN THE HUMID
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE COAST SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT DEEPER. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAK FORCING AND LARGER STORM MOTION
VALUES THAN THOSE OF RECENT DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
ALOFT THE 5H TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL
STRENGTHEN A BIT...EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
WED WILL BE REINFORCED THU AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP IS NOT IDEAL THE
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD AND POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE AREA
MID WEEK. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND FRI/SAT
SETTING UP A MORE CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DECREASES AND CLOUDS DECREASE. THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUN BUT AN ELONGATED PORTION OF THE HIGH REMAINS
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST IS
INCREASING AS THE GFS/ECMWF COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH EVEN HERE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WED/THU
COULD LEAD TO AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. THE STALLED FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LOW ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE REGION. DO NOT PLAN MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES
TO INHERITED POP FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHC LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST TO
DRY INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...1-3KFT MVFR CIGS BLANKET OUR CWA THIS EVENING AS LIGHT
N-NE FLOW REINFORCES A SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS LOWERING TO IFR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHERE
LOWEST CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
KFLO AND KCRE/KMYR WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS DROP BELOW 1KFT AFTER 06Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK MON. TEMPO IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT KILM/KLBT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1-2KFT CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY IFR FOR KILM/KLBT ATTM.
OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA/DZ...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PCPN
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MON MORNING... BUT
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS AFTER MIDDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...THE NE SURGE IS ON ITS LAST LEGS WITH RECENT
GUSTS STILL REPORTED AS HIGH AS 14 KNOTS AT BALD HEAD ISLAND AND 19
KNOTS AT THE OFFSHORE LEJEUNE BUOY. I HAVE ADJUSTED SEAS UPWARD BY
ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR
BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

NE WIND-SPEEDS SHOULD ABATE SEVERAL KNOTS AS THE SURGE PLAYS OUT BUT
COUNT ON 15 KT OF WIND OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY GOING MORE TO THE N INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FEET EXCEPT 3-4 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SEAS A MIX OF ENE WAVES 2-2.5 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MIST COULD LIMIT VSBYS
EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NC WATERS. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION
STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAKENING/DISSOLVING FRONT TO MAKE FOR SOME VERY
LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY. INITIALLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY, THEY WILL
THEN TEND TO VEER AS THE DAY WEARS ON, WITH THIS VEER MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT HIGHEST
AWAY FROM SHORE. A LIGHT PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GET
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WAS ORIGINALLY SLATED FOR
TUESDAY BUT NOW LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALSO TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DURING ITS TUESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. BOTH
FACTORS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWER SENSE OF VEERING. A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED IT SEEMS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOCAL SWAN IMPLIED A NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NE WIND WAVE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MUCH PREFER THE SUB-SCEC SEAS ADVERTISED IN EARLIER
FORECAST GIVEN THAT POST FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE EXCEEDING
15KT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY....ANTICIPATE SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD
FRONT WILL STEADILY INCREASE WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH.
WINDS START OUT 10 TO 15 KT BUT BY MIDDAY SHOULD BE A SOLID 15 KT.
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON STALLED FRONT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
SOUTH WILL FURTHER PINCH THE GRADIENT LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON FRI AS HIGH
CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST WITH NORTHEAST FLOW APPROACHING 25
KT. SEAS START OUT 3 TO 6 FT BUT COULD BUILD TO 7 FT IN PLACES AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD REACHES
THE WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 141849
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
249 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER
WEATHER ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A SLOW
RETURN OF ANY SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...NE SURGE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND SUBSTANTIALLY
LOWERED DEWPOINT VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE STABILIZING A COLUMN
FROM THE GROUND FLOOR...STILL CHALKED FULL OF VAPOR CONTENT PER
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT SCANS. OVER- RUNNING AND WEAK WAVES
OF ISENTROPIC OMEGA WILL LIKELY BRING -RA/-DZ OR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TO THE AREA BUT NO REAL FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST
DESPITE VERY WET GROUND AND A WET AIR MASS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLENTIFUL OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGIME
AND TIME HEIGHT DEPICTIONS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE TONIGHT WILL
FURTHER LOWER THE PROBABILITIES OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR LARGE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THUS PRIMARILY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY AND LOW-END CHANCES. HIGHEST POP VALUES TO RESIDE
EXTREME SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. MIN TEMPS WITH CLOUD COVER AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO THE SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH
WHILE WASHING OUT CONSIDERABLY. THE END RESULT LOCALLY WILL BE A
REBOUNDING OF TEMPERATURES DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. THE RISE IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY ALSO WASH BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS MAY BE OVERDONE IN MODEL GUIDANCE
GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF ANY FORCING NOT TO MENTION THE LACK OF
APPRECIABLE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY SLATED FOR A TUESDAY PASSAGE NOW
LOOKS SLOWER DUE IN PART TO A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BUT ALSO DUE
TO THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE BOUNDARY. EVEN
SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME DURING THE DAY IN THE HUMID
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE COAST SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT DEEPER. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAK FORCING AND LARGER STORM MOTION
VALUES THAN THOSE OF RECENT DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
ALOFT THE 5H TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL
STRENGTHEN A BIT...EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
WED WILL BE REINFORCED THU AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP IS NOT IDEAL THE
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD AND POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE AREA
MID WEEK. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND FRI/SAT
SETTING UP A MORE CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DECREASES AND CLOUDS DECREASE. THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUN BUT AN ELONGATED PORTION OF THE HIGH REMAINS
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST IS
INCREASING AS THE GFS/ECMWF COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH EVEN HERE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WED/THU
COULD LEAD TO AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. THE STALLED FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LOW ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE REGION. DO NOT PLAN MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES
TO INHERITED POP FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHC LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST TO
DRY INLAND.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...UNUSUALLY COOL WEDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MYRTLES MAY STAY IFR FOR MOST OF THE TIME...BUT COULD
LIFT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR
THE COAST...GUSTING OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KTS. BECOMING IFR EVERYWHERE
TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE FLO MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND OVERRUNNING TO
PRODUCE DRIZZLE AND LIFR VISIBILITIES. MONDAY...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. CEILINGS
MAY STAY BELOW IFR FOR QUITE SOME TIME AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS AND TEMPO MVFR
THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...NE WIND-SPEEDS SHOULD ABATE SEVERAL KNOTS AS
THE SURGE PLAYS OUT BUT COUNT ON 15 KT OF WIND OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY
GOING MORE TO THE N INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FEET EXCEPT
3-4 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. SEAS A MIX OF ENE WAVES 2-2.5 FT EVERY
4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE
AND MIST COULD LIMIT VSBYS EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NC WATERS.
NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAKENING/DISSOLVING FRONT TO MAKE FOR SOME VERY
LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY. INITIALLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY, THEY WILL
THEN TEND TO VEER AS THE DAY WEARS ON, WITH THIS VEER MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT HIGHEST
AWAY FROM SHORE. A LIGHT PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GET
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WAS ORIGINALLY SLATED FOR
TUESDAY BUT NOW LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALSO TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DURING ITS TUESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. BOTH
FACTORS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWER SENSE OF VEERING. A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED IT SEEMS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOCAL SWAN IMPLIED A NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NE WIND WAVE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MUCH PREFER THE SUB-SCEC SEAS ADVERTISED IN EARLIER
FORECAST GIVEN THAT POST FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE EXCEEDING
15KT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY....ANTICIPATE SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD
FRONT WILL STEADILY INCREASE WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH.
WINDS START OUT 10 TO 15 KT BUT BY MIDDAY SHOULD BE A SOLID 15 KT.
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON STALLED FRONT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
SOUTH WILL FURTHER PINCH THE GRADIENT LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON FRI AS HIGH
CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST WITH NORTHEAST FLOW APPROACHING 25
KT. SEAS START OUT 3 TO 6 FT BUT COULD BUILD TO 7 FT IN PLACES AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD REACHES
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...MINOR FLOODING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON FROM
STORM DRAINS AS ONE MORE HIGH TIDE CYCLE NEARS OR EXCEEDS FLOOD
CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR. THIS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 3PM
AND THE CF.Y PRODUCT WILL EXPIRE AT 4PM/20Z.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MJC







000
FXUS62 KILM 141849
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
249 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER
WEATHER ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A SLOW
RETURN OF ANY SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...NE SURGE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND SUBSTANTIALLY
LOWERED DEWPOINT VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE STABILIZING A COLUMN
FROM THE GROUND FLOOR...STILL CHALKED FULL OF VAPOR CONTENT PER
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT SCANS. OVER- RUNNING AND WEAK WAVES
OF ISENTROPIC OMEGA WILL LIKELY BRING -RA/-DZ OR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TO THE AREA BUT NO REAL FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST
DESPITE VERY WET GROUND AND A WET AIR MASS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLENTIFUL OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGIME
AND TIME HEIGHT DEPICTIONS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE TONIGHT WILL
FURTHER LOWER THE PROBABILITIES OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR LARGE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THUS PRIMARILY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY AND LOW-END CHANCES. HIGHEST POP VALUES TO RESIDE
EXTREME SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. MIN TEMPS WITH CLOUD COVER AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO THE SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH
WHILE WASHING OUT CONSIDERABLY. THE END RESULT LOCALLY WILL BE A
REBOUNDING OF TEMPERATURES DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. THE RISE IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY ALSO WASH BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS MAY BE OVERDONE IN MODEL GUIDANCE
GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF ANY FORCING NOT TO MENTION THE LACK OF
APPRECIABLE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY SLATED FOR A TUESDAY PASSAGE NOW
LOOKS SLOWER DUE IN PART TO A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BUT ALSO DUE
TO THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE BOUNDARY. EVEN
SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME DURING THE DAY IN THE HUMID
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE COAST SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT DEEPER. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAK FORCING AND LARGER STORM MOTION
VALUES THAN THOSE OF RECENT DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
ALOFT THE 5H TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL
STRENGTHEN A BIT...EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
WED WILL BE REINFORCED THU AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP IS NOT IDEAL THE
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD AND POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE AREA
MID WEEK. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND FRI/SAT
SETTING UP A MORE CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DECREASES AND CLOUDS DECREASE. THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUN BUT AN ELONGATED PORTION OF THE HIGH REMAINS
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST IS
INCREASING AS THE GFS/ECMWF COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH EVEN HERE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WED/THU
COULD LEAD TO AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. THE STALLED FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LOW ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE REGION. DO NOT PLAN MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES
TO INHERITED POP FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHC LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST TO
DRY INLAND.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...UNUSUALLY COOL WEDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MYRTLES MAY STAY IFR FOR MOST OF THE TIME...BUT COULD
LIFT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR
THE COAST...GUSTING OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KTS. BECOMING IFR EVERYWHERE
TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE FLO MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND OVERRUNNING TO
PRODUCE DRIZZLE AND LIFR VISIBILITIES. MONDAY...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. CEILINGS
MAY STAY BELOW IFR FOR QUITE SOME TIME AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS AND TEMPO MVFR
THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...NE WIND-SPEEDS SHOULD ABATE SEVERAL KNOTS AS
THE SURGE PLAYS OUT BUT COUNT ON 15 KT OF WIND OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY
GOING MORE TO THE N INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FEET EXCEPT
3-4 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. SEAS A MIX OF ENE WAVES 2-2.5 FT EVERY
4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE
AND MIST COULD LIMIT VSBYS EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NC WATERS.
NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAKENING/DISSOLVING FRONT TO MAKE FOR SOME VERY
LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY. INITIALLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY, THEY WILL
THEN TEND TO VEER AS THE DAY WEARS ON, WITH THIS VEER MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT HIGHEST
AWAY FROM SHORE. A LIGHT PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GET
ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WAS ORIGINALLY SLATED FOR
TUESDAY BUT NOW LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALSO TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DURING ITS TUESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. BOTH
FACTORS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWER SENSE OF VEERING. A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED IT SEEMS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOCAL SWAN IMPLIED A NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NE WIND WAVE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MUCH PREFER THE SUB-SCEC SEAS ADVERTISED IN EARLIER
FORECAST GIVEN THAT POST FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE EXCEEDING
15KT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY....ANTICIPATE SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD
FRONT WILL STEADILY INCREASE WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH.
WINDS START OUT 10 TO 15 KT BUT BY MIDDAY SHOULD BE A SOLID 15 KT.
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON STALLED FRONT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
SOUTH WILL FURTHER PINCH THE GRADIENT LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON FRI AS HIGH
CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST WITH NORTHEAST FLOW APPROACHING 25
KT. SEAS START OUT 3 TO 6 FT BUT COULD BUILD TO 7 FT IN PLACES AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD REACHES
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...MINOR FLOODING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON FROM
STORM DRAINS AS ONE MORE HIGH TIDE CYCLE NEARS OR EXCEEDS FLOOD
CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR. THIS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 3PM
AND THE CF.Y PRODUCT WILL EXPIRE AT 4PM/20Z.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MJC








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