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000
FXUS62 KILM 021851
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
251 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A
STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MID AND
UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY RELATIVE TO THE LOWEST LAYERS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION
THAT HAS BEGUN TO FIRE OFF THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOPS SHOW THAT AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH RADAR INDICATING THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WELL
INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF THE THERMAL TROUGH. SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT...BUT DRYER AIR ALOFT
HAS SO FAR LIMITED DEVELOPMENT.

AS IS USUAL WITH THIS TYPE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT CONVECTION TO FADE
THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING INLAND INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.



&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
EXTENT OF COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NAM IS SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY THAN OTHER GUIDANCE DUE
TO HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING.
THE FORCING IS FROM A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP
CLOSE TO THE AREA BUT LIKE MOST OF THE FRONTS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IT WILL DISSIPATE ALMOST WITHIN SITE OF OUR CWA. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. GUIDANCE ISN`T REALLY SHOWING MUCH FOR THURSDAY BUT
WITH CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
VORTICITY...THE BEST STRATEGY IS TO TREND DOWN VALUES WHILE
MAINTAINING SOME MENTION. THE BEAT GOES ON FOR TEMPERATURES WITH
LITTLE CHANGE...90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND STEAMY 70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY BRINGS A CONTINUATION OF VAST MID LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE TROUGHINESS FROM CENTRAL AL TO
GA COAST MAY POOL SOME MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAIN CHANCE OVER SRN ZONES. OTHERWISE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
THE ONLY REAL TRIGGER TO FIRE CONVECTION...AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE WASHED OUT. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAKES A RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WHILE WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THIS
MAY TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT WHILE RAIN CHANCES GO ON THE RISE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL VERY NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO WHILE KEEPING THE
WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED...MOST MOS POPS ALREADY UP INTO THE 50S
RANGE.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A LATER START TO THE DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY WITH
CLOUD BASES GENERALLY +4 KFT. MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE INLAND TAFS
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE OKAY WITH
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AS HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT
THE COAST...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT WSW DIRECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MOSTLY OCCURRING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.


SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COURTESY OF
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE. SPEEDS VARY FROM JUST UNDER TEN
KNOTS...MOSTLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING TO 10-15 IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS REMAIN STABLE IN A 2-3 FOOT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK ON FRIDAY. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE
LACKING AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A VERY WEAK TROUGH WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND WILL REMAIN ON
SUNDAY EVEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FROM BEING CAPPED AT 10KT TO THE
10 TO 15KT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. IN THIS COAST-PARALLEL FLOW THERE
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN OVERALL WAVE HEIGHT. SUNDAY
LOOKS A LOT LIKE SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME VEERING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SRP









000
FXUS62 KILM 021737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
137 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...CU FIELD HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED AND
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SOON FOLLOW. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 104. FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES
WITH THE LATEST ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWS:

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND
FLOW ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE. THIS
SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS THE
CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER
THE SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS
EARLY WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR
THE SEA AND 72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED
MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY
LEAD TO SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH
THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON
SO ITS IMPACT MAY BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING
ANY NOTEWORTHY MID LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL
HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER
5 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
DOES SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA
BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER
AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING DURING
THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST CANADA
WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA HIGH
IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING COLD
FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES HAVE
THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE AT THIS
POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT IS
INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A LATER START TO THE DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY WITH
CLOUD BASES GENERALLY +4 KFT. MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE INLAND TAFS
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE OKAY WITH
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AS HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT
THE COAST...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT WSW DIRECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MOSTLY OCCURRING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FT PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS. WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND
PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5 FT TODAY IN A MIX OF
SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1.5-2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA
BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS.
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND 10 KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...MJC/REK/III





000
FXUS62 KILM 021737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
137 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...CU FIELD HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED AND
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SOON FOLLOW. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 104. FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES
WITH THE LATEST ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWS:

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND
FLOW ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE. THIS
SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS THE
CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER
THE SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS
EARLY WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR
THE SEA AND 72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED
MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY
LEAD TO SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH
THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON
SO ITS IMPACT MAY BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING
ANY NOTEWORTHY MID LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL
HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER
5 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
DOES SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA
BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER
AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING DURING
THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST CANADA
WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA HIGH
IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING COLD
FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES HAVE
THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE AT THIS
POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT IS
INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A LATER START TO THE DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY WITH
CLOUD BASES GENERALLY +4 KFT. MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE INLAND TAFS
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE OKAY WITH
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AS HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT
THE COAST...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT WSW DIRECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MOSTLY OCCURRING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FT PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS. WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND
PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5 FT TODAY IN A MIX OF
SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1.5-2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA
BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS.
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND 10 KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...MJC/REK/III






000
FXUS62 KILM 021700
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
100 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT MIST HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
BUT NOT OF DENSITY OR COVERAGE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR COMMUTERS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WILL
SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER A SHADE IN THE EARLY GOING UNDER NEAR FULL
MORNING SUNSHINE...TRANSITIONING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN AFTN AS
CU BUILDUPS BEGIN TO TOWER INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MANY OF OUR
BEACHES TODAY FOLLOWING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS A.M. DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW
ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE
SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LATER START TO THE DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY WITH CLOUD
BASES GENERALLY +4 KFT. MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE INLAND TAFS FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE OKAY WITH THE
SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AS HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS ALONG THE
COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT THE
COAST...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT WSW DIRECTION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
MOSTLY OCCURRING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5
FT TODAY IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES
1.5-2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SRP








000
FXUS62 KILM 021700
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
100 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT MIST HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
BUT NOT OF DENSITY OR COVERAGE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR COMMUTERS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WILL
SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER A SHADE IN THE EARLY GOING UNDER NEAR FULL
MORNING SUNSHINE...TRANSITIONING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN AFTN AS
CU BUILDUPS BEGIN TO TOWER INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MANY OF OUR
BEACHES TODAY FOLLOWING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS A.M. DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW
ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE
SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LATER START TO THE DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY WITH CLOUD
BASES GENERALLY +4 KFT. MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE INLAND TAFS FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE OKAY WITH THE
SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AS HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS ALONG THE
COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT THE
COAST...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT WSW DIRECTION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
MOSTLY OCCURRING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5
FT TODAY IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES
1.5-2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SRP







000
FXUS62 KILM 021132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT MIST HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
BUT NOT OF DENSITY OR COVERAGE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR COMMUTERS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WILL
SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER A SHADE IN THE EARLY GOING UNDER NEAR FULL
MORNING SUNSHINE...TRANSITIONING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN AFTN AS
CU BUILDUPS BEGIN TO TOWER INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MANY OF OUR
BEACHES TODAY FOLLOWING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS A.M. DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW
ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE
SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO AS YESTERDAY SO THIS WILL
BE A PERSISTENCE TAF FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16-18Z AS THE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS. GOOD
INSTABILITY SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...BUT DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST ISOLATED COVERAGE. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
16-18Z. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. NW FLOW ALOFT COULD SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK TOWARDS THE COASTAL TERMINALS AT LEAST UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY WORKS FAR ENOUGH INLAND BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL
INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. MID-LATE AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE INLAND...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KFLO/KLBT UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
SW-W WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HIGHEST WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING. CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5
FT TODAY IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES
1.5-2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 021132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT MIST HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
BUT NOT OF DENSITY OR COVERAGE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR COMMUTERS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WILL
SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER A SHADE IN THE EARLY GOING UNDER NEAR FULL
MORNING SUNSHINE...TRANSITIONING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN AFTN AS
CU BUILDUPS BEGIN TO TOWER INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MANY OF OUR
BEACHES TODAY FOLLOWING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS A.M. DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW
ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE
SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO AS YESTERDAY SO THIS WILL
BE A PERSISTENCE TAF FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16-18Z AS THE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS. GOOD
INSTABILITY SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...BUT DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST ISOLATED COVERAGE. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
16-18Z. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. NW FLOW ALOFT COULD SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK TOWARDS THE COASTAL TERMINALS AT LEAST UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY WORKS FAR ENOUGH INLAND BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL
INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. MID-LATE AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE INLAND...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KFLO/KLBT UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
SW-W WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HIGHEST WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING. CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5
FT TODAY IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES
1.5-2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR











000
FXUS62 KILM 021020
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
620 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT MIST HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
BUT NOT OF DENSITY OR COVERAGE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR COMMUTERS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WILL
SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER A SHADE IN THE EARLY GOING UNDER NEAR FULL
MORNING SUNSHINE...TRANSITIONING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN AFTN AS
CU BUILDUPS BEGIN TO TOWER INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MANY OF OUR
BEACHES TODAY FOLLOWING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS A.M. DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SANDHILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW
ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE
SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5
FT TODAY IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES
1.5-2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8






000
FXUS62 KILM 021020
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
620 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT MIST HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
BUT NOT OF DENSITY OR COVERAGE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR COMMUTERS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WILL
SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER A SHADE IN THE EARLY GOING UNDER NEAR FULL
MORNING SUNSHINE...TRANSITIONING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN AFTN AS
CU BUILDUPS BEGIN TO TOWER INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MANY OF OUR
BEACHES TODAY FOLLOWING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS A.M. DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SANDHILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW
ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE
SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5
FT TODAY IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES
1.5-2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8







000
FXUS62 KILM 020747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 347 AM TUESDAY...SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND  ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE SANDHILLS WILL PROMPT A
MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION
AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND
VERSUS SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY
LAKES SW TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC
INTERIOR ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA
BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 347 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5 FT TODAY
IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1.5-2 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/8







000
FXUS62 KILM 020747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 347 AM TUESDAY...SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND  ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE SANDHILLS WILL PROMPT A
MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION
AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND
VERSUS SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY
LAKES SW TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC
INTERIOR ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA
BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 347 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5 FT TODAY
IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1.5-2 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/8








000
FXUS62 KILM 020739
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
339 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER HOURS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST
NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD
ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE SANDHILLS
WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL
AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY
THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS
BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN
COUNTY LAKES SW TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO
THE SC INTERIOR ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHES E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC IS ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA
BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5 FT TODAY
IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1.5-2 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/8








000
FXUS62 KILM 020739
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
339 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER HOURS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST
NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD
ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE SANDHILLS
WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL
AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY
THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS
BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN
COUNTY LAKES SW TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO
THE SC INTERIOR ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHES E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC IS ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA
BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5 FT TODAY
IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1.5-2 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/8







000
FXUS62 KILM 020543
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
MODEST NOCTURNAL JET LATE TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE FROM TIME
TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LEAST
INHIBITED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WILL INCLUDE
SOME PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP
BELOW 500 FT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SHOWERS OFFSHORE
MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATE AS A LANDBREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE HIGHEST AROUND BALD HEAD ISLAND...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...LOWER TO MID 70S
BUT CLOSER TO 80 DEG ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40
PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...MODEST NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD KEEP WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER A FEW DEGREES AS THE LANDBREEZE
PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH
PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT
WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW
FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8










000
FXUS62 KILM 020543
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
MODEST NOCTURNAL JET LATE TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE FROM TIME
TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LEAST
INHIBITED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WILL INCLUDE
SOME PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP
BELOW 500 FT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SHOWERS OFFSHORE
MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATE AS A LANDBREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE HIGHEST AROUND BALD HEAD ISLAND...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...LOWER TO MID 70S
BUT CLOSER TO 80 DEG ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40
PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...MODEST NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD KEEP WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER A FEW DEGREES AS THE LANDBREEZE
PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH
PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT
WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW
FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8









000
FXUS62 KILM 020540
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL IN THE ARE MID TO
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
MODEST NOCTURNAL JET LATE TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE FROM TIME
TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LEAST
INHIBITED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WILL INCLUDE
SOME PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP
BELOW 500 FT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SHOWERS OFFSHORE
MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATE AS A LANDBREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE HIGHEST AROUND BALD HEAD ISLAND...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...LOWER TO MID 70S
BUT CLOSER TO 80 DEG ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40
PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...MODEST NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD KEEP WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER A FEW DEGREES AS THE LANDBREEZE
PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH
PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT
WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW
FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8






000
FXUS62 KILM 020540
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL IN THE ARE MID TO
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
MODEST NOCTURNAL JET LATE TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE FROM TIME
TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LEAST
INHIBITED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WILL INCLUDE
SOME PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP
BELOW 500 FT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SHOWERS OFFSHORE
MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATE AS A LANDBREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE HIGHEST AROUND BALD HEAD ISLAND...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...LOWER TO MID 70S
BUT CLOSER TO 80 DEG ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40
PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...MODEST NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD KEEP WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER A FEW DEGREES AS THE LANDBREEZE
PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH
PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT
WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW
FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8







000
FXUS62 KILM 020242
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1042 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL
STALL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST
NOCTURNAL JET LATE TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LEAST INHIBITED.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY
FOG...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP BELOW 500 FT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SHOWERS OFFSHORE
MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATE AS A LANDBREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE HIGHEST AROUND BALD HEAD ISLAND...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...LOWER TO MID 70S
BUT CLOSER TO 80 DEG ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40
PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM NEAR KFLO. GIVEN NEARLY
STATIONARY MOVEMENT WITH STORM...HAVE KEPT WITH VCTS FOR KFLO TAF
ATTM. THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EXPECT VFR WITH WINDS AROUND ROUGHLY 5 KTS ACROSS THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. WHILE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT IFR AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY MVFR GIVEN SLIGHT INCREASE OF
WINDS OVERNIGHT. AS FOR THE COAST...CHANCE IS LOWER BUT WOULD NOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT MVFR FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS. INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...MODEST NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD KEEP WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER A FEW DEGREES AS THE LANDBREEZE
PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH
PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT
WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW
FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 012355
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL
STALL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN SOME
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER ACROSS PORTIONS OF GEORGETOWN AND
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES AND ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF PENDER COUNTY.
THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME SMALL HAIL IN SOME OF THESE STORMS WHICH
COULD EXAGGERATE THE RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES. THE CONVECTION HAS
DRASTICALLY DWINDLED WITH SUNSET UPON US...WITH ONLY A SPRINKLING OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. WILL SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EVE
SHOWER AND THEN EXPECT NO RAINFALL DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE THICKEST THIS EVE BUT SHOULD VERY
SLOWLY THIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST NOCTURNAL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE
FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE
LEAST INHIBITED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WILL
INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO
DEVELOP BELOW 500 FT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SHOWERS OFFSHORE
MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATE AS A LANDBREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE HIGHEST AROUND BALD HEAD ISLAND.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...LOWER TO MID 70S
BUT CLOSER TO 80 DEG ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40
PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM NEAR KFLO. GIVEN NEARLY
STATIONARY MOVEMENT WITH STORM...HAVE KEPT WITH VCTS FOR KFLO TAF
ATTM. THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EXPECT VFR WITH WINDS AROUND ROUGHLY 5 KTS ACROSS THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. WHILE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT IFR AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY MVFR GIVEN SLIGHT INCREASE OF
WINDS OVERNIGHT. AS FOR THE COAST...CHANCE IS LOWER BUT WOULD NOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT MVFR FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS. INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...MODEST NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD KEEP WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER A FEW DEGREES AS THE LANDBREEZE
PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH
PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT
WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW
FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 012355
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL
STALL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN SOME
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER ACROSS PORTIONS OF GEORGETOWN AND
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES AND ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF PENDER COUNTY.
THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME SMALL HAIL IN SOME OF THESE STORMS WHICH
COULD EXAGGERATE THE RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES. THE CONVECTION HAS
DRASTICALLY DWINDLED WITH SUNSET UPON US...WITH ONLY A SPRINKLING OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. WILL SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EVE
SHOWER AND THEN EXPECT NO RAINFALL DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE THICKEST THIS EVE BUT SHOULD VERY
SLOWLY THIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST NOCTURNAL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE
FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE
LEAST INHIBITED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WILL
INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO
DEVELOP BELOW 500 FT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SHOWERS OFFSHORE
MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATE AS A LANDBREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE HIGHEST AROUND BALD HEAD ISLAND.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...LOWER TO MID 70S
BUT CLOSER TO 80 DEG ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40
PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM NEAR KFLO. GIVEN NEARLY
STATIONARY MOVEMENT WITH STORM...HAVE KEPT WITH VCTS FOR KFLO TAF
ATTM. THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EXPECT VFR WITH WINDS AROUND ROUGHLY 5 KTS ACROSS THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. WHILE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT IFR AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY MVFR GIVEN SLIGHT INCREASE OF
WINDS OVERNIGHT. AS FOR THE COAST...CHANCE IS LOWER BUT WOULD NOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT MVFR FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS. INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...MODEST NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD KEEP WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER A FEW DEGREES AS THE LANDBREEZE
PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH
PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT
WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW
FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 011836
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
236 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY THE MASSIVE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN THE FEATURE OF NOTE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE SEA
BREEZE...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND LATER THE LAND BREEZE. CONVECTION
HAS YET TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND I HAVE BACK OFFED POPS
SOMEWHAT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL
PERIODS WITH THE LAND BREEZE AND ATLANTIC SHOWERS DEVELOPING. VERY
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND I HAVE OPTED FOR THE WARMER MET
NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A
STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TRANSITS OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...BUT IF IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE
GREATER POPS THAN THE 40 PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK
FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCI FOR
CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS
FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA
WITH A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER
VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN
ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES
ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A LAND BREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTED MUCH OF THE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE STARTING LATER AND THERE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TO
THE WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW-W AT 5KT AND S AT 10-15KT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE
TOO FAR INLAND DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. THE
FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE INLAND TERMINALS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL
NOT INDICATE IN KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM.

THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE
CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE
WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN BR AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRE-DAWN SHOWERS AT KILM. AFTER 13Z VFR EXPECTED
TERMINAL WIDE WITH SW-W WINDS...BECOME S-SW LATE IN THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM MONDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON SHAPING UP TO 10-15 FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-3 FEET WITH A FEW FOUR FOOTERS DEVELOPING LATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE
HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AS THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER
GRADIENT AT NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS
WELL AS ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH
INTO THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND
INCREASE IN S-SW FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/RGZ/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 011836
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
236 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY THE MASSIVE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN THE FEATURE OF NOTE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE SEA
BREEZE...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND LATER THE LAND BREEZE. CONVECTION
HAS YET TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND I HAVE BACK OFFED POPS
SOMEWHAT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL
PERIODS WITH THE LAND BREEZE AND ATLANTIC SHOWERS DEVELOPING. VERY
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND I HAVE OPTED FOR THE WARMER MET
NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A
STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TRANSITS OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...BUT IF IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE
GREATER POPS THAN THE 40 PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK
FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCI FOR
CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS
FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA
WITH A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER
VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN
ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES
ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A LAND BREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTED MUCH OF THE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE STARTING LATER AND THERE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TO
THE WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW-W AT 5KT AND S AT 10-15KT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE
TOO FAR INLAND DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. THE
FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE INLAND TERMINALS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL
NOT INDICATE IN KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM.

THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE
CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE
WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN BR AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRE-DAWN SHOWERS AT KILM. AFTER 13Z VFR EXPECTED
TERMINAL WIDE WITH SW-W WINDS...BECOME S-SW LATE IN THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM MONDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON SHAPING UP TO 10-15 FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-3 FEET WITH A FEW FOUR FOOTERS DEVELOPING LATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE
HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AS THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER
GRADIENT AT NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS
WELL AS ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH
INTO THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND
INCREASE IN S-SW FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/RGZ/SHK






000
FXUS62 KILM 011731
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
131 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY
THE MASSIVE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN THE FEATURE OF NOTE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE SEA BREEZE...THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND LATER THE LAND BREEZE. CONVECTION HAS YET TO
FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND I HAVE BACK OFFED POPS SOMEWHAT. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL PERIODS WITH THE
LAND BREEZE AND ATLANTIC SHOWERS DEVELOPING. VERY WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE AND I HAVE OPTED FOR THE WARMER MET NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A LAND BREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTED MUCH OF THE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE STARTING LATER AND THERE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TO
THE WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW-W AT 5KT AND S AT 10-15KT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO
FAR INLAND DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. THE FOCUS OF
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT INDICATE
IN KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM.

THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE
FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN BR AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRE-DAWN SHOWERS AT KILM. AFTER 13Z VFR EXPECTED TERMINAL
WIDE WITH SW-W WINDS...BECOME S-SW LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON SHAPING UP TO 10-15 FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL BE
2-3 FEET WITH A FEW FOUR FOOTERS DEVELOPING LATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOST WATERS.


SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL
INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 011419
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOULD
SEE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. CURRENT LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY CAUSING A LITTLE
DIVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE BUT THE INLAND FLOW SHOULD GET GOING
SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST OFFSHORE OF KILM AND
SHIFTING EAST. STRATUS/FG NEAR KLBT IS NOT VERY WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING.

TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z AT KLBT. TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS 13-18Z ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS INLAND. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW 5-10KT AND S 10-20 KT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO
FAR DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD
BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. EXPECT SOME
ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SINCE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE AT KILM...WILL INDICATE
VCTS/TEMPO TSRA 16-19Z. SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL SHOULD
SHIFT TO NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON
PERIOD. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT INDICATE VCTS IN
KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM.

THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE
FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

REPORTING STATIONS AND BUOY PLATFORMS SHOW 3
FT SEAS AND SW 15 KT WINDS AT DAYBREAK. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL ENHANCED GUSTS
CHOP UP THE AFTERNOON WATERS AND ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF BUMPINESS.
NO ADVISORIES HOWEVER WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH NO JOY RIDE SW
15G20KT AND AT TIME 4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH BOATING TRAFFIC IS CERTAIN
TODAY AND AN EXTRA ALERTNESS TO SAFETY CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE
WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW
TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA
BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS.
SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE
PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 011419
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOULD
SEE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. CURRENT LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY CAUSING A LITTLE
DIVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE BUT THE INLAND FLOW SHOULD GET GOING
SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST OFFSHORE OF KILM AND
SHIFTING EAST. STRATUS/FG NEAR KLBT IS NOT VERY WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING.

TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z AT KLBT. TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS 13-18Z ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS INLAND. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW 5-10KT AND S 10-20 KT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO
FAR DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD
BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. EXPECT SOME
ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SINCE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE AT KILM...WILL INDICATE
VCTS/TEMPO TSRA 16-19Z. SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL SHOULD
SHIFT TO NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON
PERIOD. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT INDICATE VCTS IN
KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM.

THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE
FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

REPORTING STATIONS AND BUOY PLATFORMS SHOW 3
FT SEAS AND SW 15 KT WINDS AT DAYBREAK. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL ENHANCED GUSTS
CHOP UP THE AFTERNOON WATERS AND ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF BUMPINESS.
NO ADVISORIES HOWEVER WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH NO JOY RIDE SW
15G20KT AND AT TIME 4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH BOATING TRAFFIC IS CERTAIN
TODAY AND AN EXTRA ALERTNESS TO SAFETY CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE
WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW
TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA
BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS.
SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE
PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 011209
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
809 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS
IMMINENT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPS ARE EXCEEDED. AVAILABLE
VAPOR CONTENT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND STEERING WINDS WEAK...WHICH
DOES SET THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED LOCALS POTENTIALLY RACKING BIG
RAIN TOTALS WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS RECEIVE NIL PCPN. THE PREVIOUS
EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POSTCARD SUMMERTIME WEATHER THIS FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER AS AN
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIXED ALONG 30N ROUGHLY...AND
EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GULF STATES THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND WEAK LEE-TROUGHING
ALONG THE SAND-HILLS INTERACT...ENSURING S-SW WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FULLY POWERED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION BY THE MID
AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
COASTAL INTERIOR. EVEN FAR INLAND WEST OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT THE
SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

SB-CAPES WILL SURGE NEAR 2500 J/KG THROUGH AFTERNOON...IN OVERALL
A LIGHT COLUMN WIND FLOW. NO SHORTAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND
OUR PROJECTED STORM MOTION DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE WINDOW
IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE E OR SE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE WE
HAVE A LOW-END THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL FIRE INLAND FROM THE COAST 18Z-19Z...THEN SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE COAST OR NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL...AND POTENTIALLY DUMPING GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES AND OR COASTAL INTERIOR.
LATEST PWAT SCANS FROM SPACE SHOW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT NEAR THE 2" MARK LATER TODAY.

A FEW INTERIOR SC ZONE MAY TOUCH AT 105 DEGREES ON HEAT INDEX
VALUES BUT NOT OF DURATION TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CU DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE EXCESSIVE APPARENT TEMPS. IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND AN SPS IS PLANNED SINCE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL
BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST OFFSHORE OF KILM AND
SHIFTING EAST. STRATUS/FG NEAR KLBT IS NOT VERY WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING.

TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z AT KLBT. TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS 13-18Z ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS INLAND. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW 5-10KT AND S 10-20 KT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO
FAR DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD
BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. EXPECT SOME
ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SINCE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE AT KILM...WILL INDICATE
VCTS/TEMPO TSRA 16-19Z. SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL SHOULD
SHIFT TO NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON
PERIOD. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT INDICATE VCTS IN
KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM.

THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE
FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...REPORTING STATIONS AND BUOY PLATFORMS SHOW 3
FT SEAS AND SW 15 KT WINDS AT DAYBREAK. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL ENHANCED GUSTS
CHOP UP THE AFTERNOON WATERS AND ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF BUMPINESS.
NO ADVISORIES HOWEVER WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH NO JOY RIDE SW
15G20KT AND AT TIME 4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH BOATING TRAFFIC IS CERTAIN
TODAY AND AN EXTRA ALERTNESS TO SAFETY CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE
WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW
TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA
BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS.
SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE
PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 011209
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
809 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS
IMMINENT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPS ARE EXCEEDED. AVAILABLE
VAPOR CONTENT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND STEERING WINDS WEAK...WHICH
DOES SET THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED LOCALS POTENTIALLY RACKING BIG
RAIN TOTALS WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS RECEIVE NIL PCPN. THE PREVIOUS
EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POSTCARD SUMMERTIME WEATHER THIS FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER AS AN
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIXED ALONG 30N ROUGHLY...AND
EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GULF STATES THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND WEAK LEE-TROUGHING
ALONG THE SAND-HILLS INTERACT...ENSURING S-SW WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FULLY POWERED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION BY THE MID
AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
COASTAL INTERIOR. EVEN FAR INLAND WEST OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT THE
SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

SB-CAPES WILL SURGE NEAR 2500 J/KG THROUGH AFTERNOON...IN OVERALL
A LIGHT COLUMN WIND FLOW. NO SHORTAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND
OUR PROJECTED STORM MOTION DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE WINDOW
IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE E OR SE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE WE
HAVE A LOW-END THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL FIRE INLAND FROM THE COAST 18Z-19Z...THEN SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE COAST OR NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL...AND POTENTIALLY DUMPING GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES AND OR COASTAL INTERIOR.
LATEST PWAT SCANS FROM SPACE SHOW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT NEAR THE 2" MARK LATER TODAY.

A FEW INTERIOR SC ZONE MAY TOUCH AT 105 DEGREES ON HEAT INDEX
VALUES BUT NOT OF DURATION TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CU DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE EXCESSIVE APPARENT TEMPS. IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND AN SPS IS PLANNED SINCE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL
BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST OFFSHORE OF KILM AND
SHIFTING EAST. STRATUS/FG NEAR KLBT IS NOT VERY WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING.

TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z AT KLBT. TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS 13-18Z ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS INLAND. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW 5-10KT AND S 10-20 KT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO
FAR DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD
BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. EXPECT SOME
ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SINCE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE AT KILM...WILL INDICATE
VCTS/TEMPO TSRA 16-19Z. SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL SHOULD
SHIFT TO NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON
PERIOD. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT INDICATE VCTS IN
KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM.

THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE
FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...REPORTING STATIONS AND BUOY PLATFORMS SHOW 3
FT SEAS AND SW 15 KT WINDS AT DAYBREAK. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL ENHANCED GUSTS
CHOP UP THE AFTERNOON WATERS AND ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF BUMPINESS.
NO ADVISORIES HOWEVER WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH NO JOY RIDE SW
15G20KT AND AT TIME 4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH BOATING TRAFFIC IS CERTAIN
TODAY AND AN EXTRA ALERTNESS TO SAFETY CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE
WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW
TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA
BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS.
SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE
PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 010955
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS
IMMINENT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPS ARE EXCEEDED. AVAILABLE
VAPOR CONTENT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND STEERING WINDS WEAK...WHICH
DOES SET THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED LOCALS POTENTIALLY RACKING BIG
RAIN TOTALS WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS RECEIVE NIL PCPN. THE PREVIOUS
EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POSTCARD SUMMERTIME WEATHER THIS FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER AS AN
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIXED ALONG 30N ROUGHLY...AND
EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GULF STATES THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND WEAK LEE-TROUGHING
ALONG THE SAND-HILLS INTERACT...ENSURING S-SW WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FULLY POWERED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION BY THE MID
AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
COASTAL INTERIOR. EVEN FAR INLAND WEST OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT THE
SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

SB-CAPES WILL SURGE NEAR 2500 J/KG THROUGH AFTERNOON...IN OVERALL
A LIGHT COLUMN WIND FLOW. NO SHORTAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND
OUR PROJECTED STORM MOTION DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE WINDOW
IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE E OR SE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE WE
HAVE A LOW-END THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL FIRE INLAND FROM THE COAST 18Z-19Z...THEN SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE COAST OR NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL...AND POTENTIALLY DUMPING GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES AND OR COASTAL INTERIOR.
LATEST PWAT SCANS FROM SPACE SHOW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT NEAR THE 2" MARK LATER TODAY.

A FEW INTERIOR SC ZONE MAY TOUCH AT 105 DEGREES ON HEAT INDEX
VALUES BUT NOT OF DURATION TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CU DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE EXCESSIVE APPARENT TEMPS. IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND AN SPS IS PLANNED SINCE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL
BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO
IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY
THAN LAST NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND
TERMS. ALONG THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT
CLOUDS MAY CLIP THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH
FOR THE COASTAL TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
AFTER MIDDAY AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE
ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...REPORTING STATIONS AND BUOY PLATFORMS SHOW 3
FT SEAS AND SW 15 KT WINDS AT DAYBREAK. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL ENHANCED GUSTS
CHOP UP THE AFTERNOON WATERS AND ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF BUMPINESS.
NO ADVISORIES HOWEVER WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH NO JOY RIDE SW
15G20KT AND AT TIME 4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH BOATING TRAFFIC IS CERTAIN
TODAY AND AN EXTRA ALERTNESS TO SAFETY CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE
WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW
TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA
BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS.
SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE
PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...8/ROSS







000
FXUS62 KILM 010955
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS
IMMINENT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPS ARE EXCEEDED. AVAILABLE
VAPOR CONTENT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND STEERING WINDS WEAK...WHICH
DOES SET THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED LOCALS POTENTIALLY RACKING BIG
RAIN TOTALS WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS RECEIVE NIL PCPN. THE PREVIOUS
EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POSTCARD SUMMERTIME WEATHER THIS FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER AS AN
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIXED ALONG 30N ROUGHLY...AND
EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GULF STATES THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND WEAK LEE-TROUGHING
ALONG THE SAND-HILLS INTERACT...ENSURING S-SW WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FULLY POWERED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION BY THE MID
AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
COASTAL INTERIOR. EVEN FAR INLAND WEST OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT THE
SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

SB-CAPES WILL SURGE NEAR 2500 J/KG THROUGH AFTERNOON...IN OVERALL
A LIGHT COLUMN WIND FLOW. NO SHORTAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND
OUR PROJECTED STORM MOTION DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE WINDOW
IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE E OR SE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE WE
HAVE A LOW-END THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL FIRE INLAND FROM THE COAST 18Z-19Z...THEN SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE COAST OR NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL...AND POTENTIALLY DUMPING GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES AND OR COASTAL INTERIOR.
LATEST PWAT SCANS FROM SPACE SHOW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT NEAR THE 2" MARK LATER TODAY.

A FEW INTERIOR SC ZONE MAY TOUCH AT 105 DEGREES ON HEAT INDEX
VALUES BUT NOT OF DURATION TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CU DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE EXCESSIVE APPARENT TEMPS. IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND AN SPS IS PLANNED SINCE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL
BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO
IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY
THAN LAST NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND
TERMS. ALONG THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT
CLOUDS MAY CLIP THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH
FOR THE COASTAL TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
AFTER MIDDAY AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE
ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...REPORTING STATIONS AND BUOY PLATFORMS SHOW 3
FT SEAS AND SW 15 KT WINDS AT DAYBREAK. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL ENHANCED GUSTS
CHOP UP THE AFTERNOON WATERS AND ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF BUMPINESS.
NO ADVISORIES HOWEVER WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH NO JOY RIDE SW
15G20KT AND AT TIME 4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH BOATING TRAFFIC IS CERTAIN
TODAY AND AN EXTRA ALERTNESS TO SAFETY CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE
WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW
TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA
BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS.
SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE
PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...8/ROSS








000
FXUS62 KILM 010752
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
352 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...POSTCARD SUMMERTIME WEATHER THIS FIRST DAY
OF SEPTEMBER AS AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIXED ALONG 30N
ROUGHLY...AND EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GULF STATES
THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND WEAK
LEE-TROUGHING ALONG THE SAND-HILLS INTERACT...ENSURING S-SW WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FULLY POWERED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION BY THE
MID AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
COASTAL INTERIOR. EVEN FAR INLAND WEST OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT THE
SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

SB-CAPES WILL SURGE NEAR 2500 J/KG THROUGH AFTERNOON...IN OVERALL
A LIGHT COLUMN WIND FLOW. NO SHORTAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND
OUR PROJECTED STORM MOTION DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE WINDOW
IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE E OR SE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE WE
HAVE A LOW-END THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL FIRE INLAND FROM THE COAST 18Z-19Z...THEN SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE COAST OR NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL...AND POTENTIALLY DUMPING GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES AND OR COASTAL INTERIOR.
LATEST PWAT SCANS FROM SPACE SHOW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT NEAR THE 2" MARK LATER TODAY.

A FEW INTERIOR SC ZONE MAY TOUCH AT 105 DEGREES ON HEAT INDEX
VALUES BUT NOT OF DURATION TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CU DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE EXCESSIVE APPARENT TEMPS. IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND AN SPS IS PLANNED SINCE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL
BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO
20 KT INSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT
IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE
TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS
AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS. SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF
VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/8






000
FXUS62 KILM 010752
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
352 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...POSTCARD SUMMERTIME WEATHER THIS FIRST DAY
OF SEPTEMBER AS AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIXED ALONG 30N
ROUGHLY...AND EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GULF STATES
THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND WEAK
LEE-TROUGHING ALONG THE SAND-HILLS INTERACT...ENSURING S-SW WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FULLY POWERED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION BY THE
MID AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
COASTAL INTERIOR. EVEN FAR INLAND WEST OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT THE
SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

SB-CAPES WILL SURGE NEAR 2500 J/KG THROUGH AFTERNOON...IN OVERALL
A LIGHT COLUMN WIND FLOW. NO SHORTAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND
OUR PROJECTED STORM MOTION DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE WINDOW
IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE E OR SE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE WE
HAVE A LOW-END THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL FIRE INLAND FROM THE COAST 18Z-19Z...THEN SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE COAST OR NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL...AND POTENTIALLY DUMPING GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES AND OR COASTAL INTERIOR.
LATEST PWAT SCANS FROM SPACE SHOW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT NEAR THE 2" MARK LATER TODAY.

A FEW INTERIOR SC ZONE MAY TOUCH AT 105 DEGREES ON HEAT INDEX
VALUES BUT NOT OF DURATION TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CU DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE EXCESSIVE APPARENT TEMPS. IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND AN SPS IS PLANNED SINCE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL
BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO
20 KT INSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT
IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE
TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS
AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS. SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF
VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/8







000
FXUS62 KILM 010536
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SUMMERTIME HEAT
MUCH OF THIS FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL EDGE
INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK...BRINGING AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF STORMS.
A STRONG WAVE OF HEAT MAY EXPAND INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER GULF STATES EXPANDS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...THE WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVED INTO PORTIONS
OF DARLINGTON AND FLORENCE COUNTIES AND THEN DISSIPATED. ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF WARMING CLOUD TOPS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS TO THE WEST
OF FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES LATE THIS EVE. THIS ACTIVITY
IS NO LONGER PUSHING EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
UPSTREAM OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ACTIVE ON MONDAY.

THE THICKER CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS MAINLY THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH
CAROLINA CONTINUES TO WARM AND THIN LATE THIS EVE. MAINLY THIN
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SHOULD START TO SEE SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH OFFSHORE CONVECTION AT LEAST SKIRT THE COAST. MORE
INLAND AREAS MAY SEE SCT TO PERHAPS BKN STRATUS LATE.

SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED WARM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC MAY SKIRT THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. THE FLOW HAS BACKED A
LITTLE TO THE SW AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE FURTHER STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNRISE...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHPORT TO CAROLINA BEACH AREA
AROUND DAYBREAK.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THIS SAME JETTING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM REMAINING FULLY DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME...WOULD EXPECT
MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AT THE BEACHES...WHERE THE
BREEZE MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET AND A
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
CONVECTION MAY MOVE WITHIN 20 NM LATE...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPE
FEAR COAST.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC WINDS
IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING
EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC
PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15
KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10 SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO
POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8







000
FXUS62 KILM 010536
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SUMMERTIME HEAT
MUCH OF THIS FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL EDGE
INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK...BRINGING AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF STORMS.
A STRONG WAVE OF HEAT MAY EXPAND INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER GULF STATES EXPANDS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...THE WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVED INTO PORTIONS
OF DARLINGTON AND FLORENCE COUNTIES AND THEN DISSIPATED. ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF WARMING CLOUD TOPS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS TO THE WEST
OF FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES LATE THIS EVE. THIS ACTIVITY
IS NO LONGER PUSHING EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
UPSTREAM OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ACTIVE ON MONDAY.

THE THICKER CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS MAINLY THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH
CAROLINA CONTINUES TO WARM AND THIN LATE THIS EVE. MAINLY THIN
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SHOULD START TO SEE SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH OFFSHORE CONVECTION AT LEAST SKIRT THE COAST. MORE
INLAND AREAS MAY SEE SCT TO PERHAPS BKN STRATUS LATE.

SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED WARM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC MAY SKIRT THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. THE FLOW HAS BACKED A
LITTLE TO THE SW AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE FURTHER STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNRISE...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHPORT TO CAROLINA BEACH AREA
AROUND DAYBREAK.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THIS SAME JETTING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM REMAINING FULLY DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME...WOULD EXPECT
MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AT THE BEACHES...WHERE THE
BREEZE MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET AND A
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
CONVECTION MAY MOVE WITHIN 20 NM LATE...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPE
FEAR COAST.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC WINDS
IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING
EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC
PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15
KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10 SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO
POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8








000
FXUS62 KILM 010225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1025 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WITH A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE
MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. A
DECAYING FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS
INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...THE WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVED INTO PORTIONS
OF DARLINGTON AND FLORENCE COUNTIES AND THEN DISSIPATED. ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF WARMING CLOUD TOPS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS TO THE WEST
OF FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES LATE THIS EVE. THIS ACTIVITY
IS NO LONGER PUSHING EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE UPSTREAM
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ACTIVE ON MONDAY.

THE THICKER CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS MAINLY THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH
CAROLINA CONTINUES TO WARM AND THIN LATE THIS EVE. MAINLY THIN
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SHOULD START TO SEE SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH OFFSHORE CONVECTION AT LEAST SKIRT THE COAST. MORE
INLAND AREAS MAY SEE SCT TO PERHAPS BKN STRATUS LATE.

SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED WARM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC MAY SKIRT THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. THE FLOW HAS BACKED A
LITTLE TO THE SW AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE FURTHER STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNRISE...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHPORT TO CAROLINA BEACH AREA
AROUND DAYBREAK.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THIS SAME JETTING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM REMAINING FULLY DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME...WOULD EXPECT
MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AT THE BEACHES...WHERE THE
BREEZE MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE
COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE
SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET AND A
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. DEVELOPING OFFSHORE CONVECTION
MAY MOVE WITHIN 20 NM LATE...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC WINDS
IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING
EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC
PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15
KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10 SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO
POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR










000
FXUS62 KILM 010225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1025 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WITH A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE
MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. A
DECAYING FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS
INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...THE WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVED INTO PORTIONS
OF DARLINGTON AND FLORENCE COUNTIES AND THEN DISSIPATED. ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF WARMING CLOUD TOPS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS TO THE WEST
OF FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES LATE THIS EVE. THIS ACTIVITY
IS NO LONGER PUSHING EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE UPSTREAM
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ACTIVE ON MONDAY.

THE THICKER CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS MAINLY THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH
CAROLINA CONTINUES TO WARM AND THIN LATE THIS EVE. MAINLY THIN
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SHOULD START TO SEE SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH OFFSHORE CONVECTION AT LEAST SKIRT THE COAST. MORE
INLAND AREAS MAY SEE SCT TO PERHAPS BKN STRATUS LATE.

SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED WARM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC MAY SKIRT THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. THE FLOW HAS BACKED A
LITTLE TO THE SW AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE FURTHER STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNRISE...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHPORT TO CAROLINA BEACH AREA
AROUND DAYBREAK.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THIS SAME JETTING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM REMAINING FULLY DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME...WOULD EXPECT
MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AT THE BEACHES...WHERE THE
BREEZE MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE
COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE
SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET AND A
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. DEVELOPING OFFSHORE CONVECTION
MAY MOVE WITHIN 20 NM LATE...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC WINDS
IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING
EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC
PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15
KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10 SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO
POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR











000
FXUS62 KILM 312350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WITH A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE
MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. A
DECAYING FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS
INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH THE WESTERNMOST
COMMUNITIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR
IN THE HARTSVILLE TO TIMMONSVILLE AREA PRIOR TO 9 PM. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE THICK CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS
LUMBERTON TO MARION TO CADES BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ERODE AFTER
10 PM.

A FEW LATE NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED
WARM WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC MAY SKIRT THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. THE
FLOW HAS BACKED A LITTLE TO THE SW AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE FURTHER
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO KEEP THE
SHOWERS OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNRISE...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHPORT TO
CAROLINA BEACH AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THIS SAME JETTING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM REMAINING FULLY DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME...WOULD EXPECT
MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AT THE BEACHES...WHERE THE
BREEZE MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE
COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE
SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET AND A
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC WINDS
IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING
EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC
PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15
KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10 SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO
POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 312350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WITH A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE
MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. A
DECAYING FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS
INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH THE WESTERNMOST
COMMUNITIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR
IN THE HARTSVILLE TO TIMMONSVILLE AREA PRIOR TO 9 PM. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE THICK CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS
LUMBERTON TO MARION TO CADES BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ERODE AFTER
10 PM.

A FEW LATE NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED
WARM WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC MAY SKIRT THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. THE
FLOW HAS BACKED A LITTLE TO THE SW AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE FURTHER
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO KEEP THE
SHOWERS OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNRISE...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHPORT TO
CAROLINA BEACH AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THIS SAME JETTING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM REMAINING FULLY DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME...WOULD EXPECT
MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AT THE BEACHES...WHERE THE
BREEZE MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE
COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE
SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET AND A
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC WINDS
IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING
EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC
PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15
KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10 SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO
POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR








000
FXUS62 KILM 312323
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
723 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP
A STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MID
AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO
THIS...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS FADED AS
THE DRYER AIR ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALSO BEGUN TO ERODE AS THE
MIXING PROGRESSES. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY.

CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE
COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE
SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND HE SFC PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT
SYNOPTIC WINDS IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN
OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING
WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A
RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10
SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE
WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR












000
FXUS62 KILM 312323
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
723 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP
A STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MID
AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO
THIS...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS FADED AS
THE DRYER AIR ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALSO BEGUN TO ERODE AS THE
MIXING PROGRESSES. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY.

CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE
COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE
SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND HE SFC PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT
SYNOPTIC WINDS IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN
OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING
WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A
RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10
SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE
WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR











000
FXUS62 KILM 312000
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP
A STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MID
AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO
THIS...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS FADED AS
THE DRYER AIR ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALSO BEGUN TO ERODE AS THE
MIXING PROGRESSES. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY.

CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS INTO THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE PERIODS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT
KFLO/KLBT OF CIGS 3-4K. THE BEST SHOWER POTENTIAL...ALBEIT
ISOLATED...THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
SE-S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND
TO 5 TO 10 KT AT KFLO/KLBT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LGT SW LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BR/FG POTENTIAL WILL BE THE INLAND
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS LIKELY KFLO/KLBT BY
08Z. VFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 13Z WITH S WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND SW-W WINDS AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND HE SFC PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT
SYNOPTIC WINDS IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN
OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING
WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A
RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10
SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE
WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 312000
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP
A STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MID
AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO
THIS...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS FADED AS
THE DRYER AIR ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALSO BEGUN TO ERODE AS THE
MIXING PROGRESSES. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY.

CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS INTO THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE PERIODS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT
KFLO/KLBT OF CIGS 3-4K. THE BEST SHOWER POTENTIAL...ALBEIT
ISOLATED...THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
SE-S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND
TO 5 TO 10 KT AT KFLO/KLBT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LGT SW LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BR/FG POTENTIAL WILL BE THE INLAND
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS LIKELY KFLO/KLBT BY
08Z. VFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 13Z WITH S WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND SW-W WINDS AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND HE SFC PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT
SYNOPTIC WINDS IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN
OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING
WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A
RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10
SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE
WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 311732
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY
ALONG THE NASCENT SEA BREEZE FRONT. ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS
AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE FORMING
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN
TO THE LOWER LAYERS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SYNOPTIC IMPULSES DEFLECTED
AWAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +18C THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S FROM
MARION AND FLORENCE WESTWARD INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY. ONSHORE WINDS
CLOSER TO THE COAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER
RIDGE (COLUMN PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE ONLY 1.5 INCHES) VERY RICH
MOISTURE EXISTS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S THIS MORNING WILL FORTUNATELY MIX DOWN TO NEAR 70
THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...BUT THAT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAT
INDICES TO 100-103 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
MOISTURE MAY ALSO FUEL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THIS COAST
LATER THIS MORNING...PROBABLY BECOMING LESSER IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWNWARD. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM
20-30 PERCENT... VIRTUALLY ALL EAST OF I-95 AND HIGHEST IN A
STRIPE ACROSS LELAND TO BURGAW AS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED BY HOURLY
HRRR MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANY LINGERING DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE AWAY THIS
EVENING... WITH ONLY A LITTLE PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
LOCALES...A FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A FLAT
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUSH TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE REGION MON
AND TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND WEST SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN MEANS LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT WILL BE
PRESENT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL PUSH ML CAPE VALUES TO 1K-2K J/KG FOR MON AND OVER 2K
J/KG ON TUE. CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP BUT ONCE
SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH TAKE SHAPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD START POPPING UP. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POP FOR EACH AFTERNOON
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ON TUE GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAPE
VALUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ALONG WITH
ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND MAKE A RUN TO
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO STALL AND WASH
OUT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
PATTERNS ARE NOT ONES THAT GENERALLY SUPPORT FRONTS MOVING INTO AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2K J/KG FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL DEFINED. TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
NEAR CLIMO PWATS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
SUGGEST POP WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS INTO THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE PERIODS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT
KFLO/KLBT OF CIGS 3-4K. THE BEST SHOWER POTENTIAL...ALBEIT
ISOLATED...THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
SE-S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND
TO 5 TO 10 KT AT KFLO/KLBT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LGT SW LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BR/FG POTENTIAL WILL BE THE INLAND
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS LIKELY KFLO/KLBT BY
08Z. VFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 13Z WITH S WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND SW-W WINDS AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND SEAS IN THE 2 FT RANGE. THIS IS ALL AS EXPECTED...SO NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WIND
TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND
2 FEET MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 3 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES...WITH ANY SCATTERED
MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA
HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AS DOES THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. LATE IN THE
PERIOD A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10
KT WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/III








000
FXUS62 KILM 311732
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY
ALONG THE NASCENT SEA BREEZE FRONT. ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS
AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE FORMING
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN
TO THE LOWER LAYERS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SYNOPTIC IMPULSES DEFLECTED
AWAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +18C THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S FROM
MARION AND FLORENCE WESTWARD INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY. ONSHORE WINDS
CLOSER TO THE COAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER
RIDGE (COLUMN PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE ONLY 1.5 INCHES) VERY RICH
MOISTURE EXISTS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S THIS MORNING WILL FORTUNATELY MIX DOWN TO NEAR 70
THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...BUT THAT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAT
INDICES TO 100-103 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
MOISTURE MAY ALSO FUEL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THIS COAST
LATER THIS MORNING...PROBABLY BECOMING LESSER IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWNWARD. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM
20-30 PERCENT... VIRTUALLY ALL EAST OF I-95 AND HIGHEST IN A
STRIPE ACROSS LELAND TO BURGAW AS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED BY HOURLY
HRRR MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANY LINGERING DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE AWAY THIS
EVENING... WITH ONLY A LITTLE PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
LOCALES...A FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A FLAT
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUSH TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE REGION MON
AND TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND WEST SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN MEANS LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT WILL BE
PRESENT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL PUSH ML CAPE VALUES TO 1K-2K J/KG FOR MON AND OVER 2K
J/KG ON TUE. CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP BUT ONCE
SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH TAKE SHAPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD START POPPING UP. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POP FOR EACH AFTERNOON
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ON TUE GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAPE
VALUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ALONG WITH
ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND MAKE A RUN TO
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO STALL AND WASH
OUT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
PATTERNS ARE NOT ONES THAT GENERALLY SUPPORT FRONTS MOVING INTO AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2K J/KG FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL DEFINED. TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
NEAR CLIMO PWATS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
SUGGEST POP WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS INTO THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE PERIODS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT
KFLO/KLBT OF CIGS 3-4K. THE BEST SHOWER POTENTIAL...ALBEIT
ISOLATED...THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
SE-S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND
TO 5 TO 10 KT AT KFLO/KLBT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LGT SW LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BR/FG POTENTIAL WILL BE THE INLAND
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS LIKELY KFLO/KLBT BY
08Z. VFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 13Z WITH S WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND SW-W WINDS AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND SEAS IN THE 2 FT RANGE. THIS IS ALL AS EXPECTED...SO NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WIND
TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND
2 FEET MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 3 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES...WITH ANY SCATTERED
MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA
HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AS DOES THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. LATE IN THE
PERIOD A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10
KT WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/III







000
FXUS62 KILM 311427
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1027 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 AM SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY ALONG THE NASCENT SEA BREEZE FRONT.
ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE FORMING MOVING INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE LOWER LAYERS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SYNOPTIC IMPULSES DEFLECTED
AWAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +18C THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S FROM
MARION AND FLORENCE WESTWARD INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY. ONSHORE WINDS
CLOSER TO THE COAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER
RIDGE (COLUMN PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE ONLY 1.5 INCHES) VERY RICH
MOISTURE EXISTS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S THIS MORNING WILL FORTUNATELY MIX DOWN TO NEAR 70
THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...BUT THAT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAT
INDICES TO 100-103 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
MOISTURE MAY ALSO FUEL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THIS COAST
LATER THIS MORNING...PROBABLY BECOMING LESSER IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWNWARD. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM
20-30 PERCENT... VIRTUALLY ALL EAST OF I-95 AND HIGHEST IN A
STRIPE ACROSS LELAND TO BURGAW AS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED BY HOURLY
HRRR MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANY LINGERING DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE AWAY THIS
EVENING... WITH ONLY A LITTLE PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
LOCALES...A FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A FLAT
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUSH TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE REGION MON
AND TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND WEST SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN MEANS LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT WILL BE
PRESENT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL PUSH ML CAPE VALUES TO 1K-2K J/KG FOR MON AND OVER 2K
J/KG ON TUE. CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP BUT ONCE
SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH TAKE SHAPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD START POPPING UP. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POP FOR EACH AFTERNOON
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ON TUE GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAPE
VALUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ALONG WITH
ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND MAKE A RUN TO
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO STALL AND WASH
OUT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
PATTERNS ARE NOT ONES THAT GENERALLY SUPPORT FRONTS MOVING INTO AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2K J/KG FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL DEFINED. TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
NEAR CLIMO PWATS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
SUGGEST POP WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR TEMPO LIFR IN BR/FG OCCURRING AT KFLO THIS
MORNING. KLBT IS VFR. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT KCRE/KMYR.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING N ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

BR/FG SHOULD BURN OFF AROUND 14Z AT KFLO. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED AT
BOTH KFLO/KLBT INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPO MVFR CIGS/SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS UNTIL THE SEA SHIFTS
FURTHER INLAND MID-LATE MORNING. BEST CONFIDENCE OF A TEMPO SHOWER
IS AT KILM. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON THE BEST SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. SE-S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND 5 TO
10 KT AT KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS MORNING.

WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LGT S-SW THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BR/FG POTENTIAL WILL BE THE INLAND TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS LIKELY KFLO/KLBT BY 08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 AM SUNDAY...BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 2 FT RANGE. THIS IS ALL
AS EXPECTED...SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST NEEDED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WIND
TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND
2 FEET MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 3 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES...WITH ANY SCATTERED
MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA
HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AS DOES THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. LATE IN THE
PERIOD A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10
KT WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/III






000
FXUS62 KILM 311427
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1027 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 AM SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY ALONG THE NASCENT SEA BREEZE FRONT.
ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE FORMING MOVING INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE LOWER LAYERS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SYNOPTIC IMPULSES DEFLECTED
AWAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +18C THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S FROM
MARION AND FLORENCE WESTWARD INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY. ONSHORE WINDS
CLOSER TO THE COAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER
RIDGE (COLUMN PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE ONLY 1.5 INCHES) VERY RICH
MOISTURE EXISTS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S THIS MORNING WILL FORTUNATELY MIX DOWN TO NEAR 70
THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...BUT THAT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAT
INDICES TO 100-103 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
MOISTURE MAY ALSO FUEL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THIS COAST
LATER THIS MORNING...PROBABLY BECOMING LESSER IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWNWARD. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM
20-30 PERCENT... VIRTUALLY ALL EAST OF I-95 AND HIGHEST IN A
STRIPE ACROSS LELAND TO BURGAW AS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED BY HOURLY
HRRR MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANY LINGERING DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE AWAY THIS
EVENING... WITH ONLY A LITTLE PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
LOCALES...A FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A FLAT
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUSH TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE REGION MON
AND TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND WEST SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN MEANS LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT WILL BE
PRESENT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL PUSH ML CAPE VALUES TO 1K-2K J/KG FOR MON AND OVER 2K
J/KG ON TUE. CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP BUT ONCE
SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH TAKE SHAPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD START POPPING UP. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POP FOR EACH AFTERNOON
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ON TUE GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAPE
VALUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ALONG WITH
ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND MAKE A RUN TO
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO STALL AND WASH
OUT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
PATTERNS ARE NOT ONES THAT GENERALLY SUPPORT FRONTS MOVING INTO AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2K J/KG FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL DEFINED. TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
NEAR CLIMO PWATS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
SUGGEST POP WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR TEMPO LIFR IN BR/FG OCCURRING AT KFLO THIS
MORNING. KLBT IS VFR. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT KCRE/KMYR.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING N ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

BR/FG SHOULD BURN OFF AROUND 14Z AT KFLO. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED AT
BOTH KFLO/KLBT INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPO MVFR CIGS/SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS UNTIL THE SEA SHIFTS
FURTHER INLAND MID-LATE MORNING. BEST CONFIDENCE OF A TEMPO SHOWER
IS AT KILM. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON THE BEST SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. SE-S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND 5 TO
10 KT AT KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS MORNING.

WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LGT S-SW THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BR/FG POTENTIAL WILL BE THE INLAND TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS LIKELY KFLO/KLBT BY 08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 AM SUNDAY...BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 2 FT RANGE. THIS IS ALL
AS EXPECTED...SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST NEEDED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WIND
TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND
2 FEET MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 3 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES...WITH ANY SCATTERED
MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA
HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AS DOES THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. LATE IN THE
PERIOD A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10
KT WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/III





000
FXUS62 KILM 311129
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
729 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SYNOPTIC
IMPULSES DEFLECTED AWAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +18C THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S FROM MARION AND FLORENCE WESTWARD INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY.
ONSHORE WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
(COLUMN PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE ONLY 1.5 INCHES) VERY RICH MOISTURE
EXISTS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S THIS MORNING WILL FORTUNATELY MIX DOWN TO NEAR 70 THIS AFTERNOON
INLAND...BUT THAT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
100-103 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY
ALSO FUEL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THIS COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...PROBABLY BECOMING LESSER IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MIXES DOWNWARD. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT...
VIRTUALLY ALL EAST OF I-95 AND HIGHEST IN A STRIPE ACROSS LELAND TO
BURGAW AS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED BY HOURLY HRRR MODEL RUNS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

ANY LINGERING DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE AWAY THIS
EVENING... WITH ONLY A LITTLE PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
LOCALES...A FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A FLAT
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUSH TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE REGION MON
AND TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND WEST SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN MEANS LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT WILL BE
PRESENT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL PUSH ML CAPE VALUES TO 1K-2K J/KG FOR MON AND OVER 2K
J/KG ON TUE. CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP BUT ONCE
SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH TAKE SHAPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD START POPPING UP. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POP FOR EACH AFTERNOON
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ON TUE GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAPE
VALUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ALONG WITH
ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND MAKE A RUN TO
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO STALL AND WASH
OUT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
PATTERNS ARE NOT ONES THAT GENERALLY SUPPORT FRONTS MOVING INTO AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2K J/KG FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL DEFINED. TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
NEAR CLIMO PWATS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
SUGGEST POP WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR TEMPO LIFR IN BR/FG OCCURRING AT KFLO THIS
MORNING. KLBT IS VFR. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT KCRE/KMYR.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING N ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

BR/FG SHOULD BURN OFF AROUND 14Z AT KFLO. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED AT
BOTH KFLO/KLBT INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPO MVFR CIGS/SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS UNTIL THE SEA SHIFTS
FURTHER INLAND MID-LATE MORNING. BEST CONFIDENCE OF A TEMPO SHOWER
IS AT KILM. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON THE BEST SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. SE-S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND 5 TO
10 KT AT KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS MORNING.

WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LGT S-SW THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BR/FG POTENTIAL WILL BE THE INLAND TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS LIKELY KFLO/KLBT BY 08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.
SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 3 FEET IN A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES...WITH ANY
SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA
HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AS DOES THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. LATE IN THE
PERIOD A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10
KT WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 311129
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
729 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SYNOPTIC
IMPULSES DEFLECTED AWAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +18C THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S FROM MARION AND FLORENCE WESTWARD INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY.
ONSHORE WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
(COLUMN PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE ONLY 1.5 INCHES) VERY RICH MOISTURE
EXISTS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S THIS MORNING WILL FORTUNATELY MIX DOWN TO NEAR 70 THIS AFTERNOON
INLAND...BUT THAT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
100-103 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY
ALSO FUEL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THIS COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...PROBABLY BECOMING LESSER IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MIXES DOWNWARD. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT...
VIRTUALLY ALL EAST OF I-95 AND HIGHEST IN A STRIPE ACROSS LELAND TO
BURGAW AS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED BY HOURLY HRRR MODEL RUNS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

ANY LINGERING DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE AWAY THIS
EVENING... WITH ONLY A LITTLE PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
LOCALES...A FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A FLAT
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUSH TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE REGION MON
AND TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND WEST SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN MEANS LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT WILL BE
PRESENT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL PUSH ML CAPE VALUES TO 1K-2K J/KG FOR MON AND OVER 2K
J/KG ON TUE. CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP BUT ONCE
SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH TAKE SHAPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD START POPPING UP. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POP FOR EACH AFTERNOON
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ON TUE GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAPE
VALUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ALONG WITH
ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND MAKE A RUN TO
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO STALL AND WASH
OUT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
PATTERNS ARE NOT ONES THAT GENERALLY SUPPORT FRONTS MOVING INTO AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2K J/KG FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL DEFINED. TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
NEAR CLIMO PWATS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
SUGGEST POP WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR TEMPO LIFR IN BR/FG OCCURRING AT KFLO THIS
MORNING. KLBT IS VFR. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT KCRE/KMYR.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING N ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

BR/FG SHOULD BURN OFF AROUND 14Z AT KFLO. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED AT
BOTH KFLO/KLBT INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPO MVFR CIGS/SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS UNTIL THE SEA SHIFTS
FURTHER INLAND MID-LATE MORNING. BEST CONFIDENCE OF A TEMPO SHOWER
IS AT KILM. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON THE BEST SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. SE-S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND 5 TO
10 KT AT KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS MORNING.

WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LGT S-SW THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BR/FG POTENTIAL WILL BE THE INLAND TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS LIKELY KFLO/KLBT BY 08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.
SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 3 FEET IN A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES...WITH ANY
SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA
HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AS DOES THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. LATE IN THE
PERIOD A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10
KT WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 311034
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
633 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SYNOPTIC
IMPULSES DEFLECTED AWAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +18C THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S FROM MARION AND FLORENCE WESTWARD INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY.
ONSHORE WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
(COLUMN PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE ONLY 1.5 INCHES) VERY RICH MOISTURE
EXISTS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S THIS MORNING WILL FORTUNATELY MIX DOWN TO NEAR 70 THIS AFTERNOON
INLAND...BUT THAT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
100-103 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY
ALSO FUEL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THIS COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...PROBABLY BECOMING LESSER IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MIXES DOWNWARD. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT...
VIRTUALLY ALL EAST OF I-95 AND HIGHEST IN A STRIPE ACROSS LELAND TO
BURGAW AS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED BY HOURLY HRRR MODEL RUNS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

ANY LINGERING DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE AWAY THIS
EVENING... WITH ONLY A LITTLE PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
LOCALES...A FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A FLAT
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUSH TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE REGION MON
AND TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND WEST SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN MEANS LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT WILL BE
PRESENT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL PUSH ML CAPE VALUES TO 1K-2K J/KG FOR MON AND OVER 2K
J/KG ON TUE. CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP BUT ONCE
SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH TAKE SHAPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD START POPPING UP. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POP FOR EACH AFTERNOON
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ON TUE GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAPE
VALUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ALONG WITH
ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND MAKE A RUN TO
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO STALL AND WASH
OUT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
PATTERNS ARE NOT ONES THAT GENERALLY SUPPORT FRONTS MOVING INTO AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2K J/KG FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL DEFINED. TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
NEAR CLIMO PWATS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
SUGGEST POP WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...STILL EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO. HAVE BACKED OFF
THE FOG A BIT GIVEN THE INCREASING DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING INTO OUR
AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT TEMPO IFR VSBYS INLAND...BUT MVFR SEEMS
MORE LIKELY ATTM. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
SKIRTING THE COAST THIS MORNING...SO WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR
KILM/KCRE/KMYR. THE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 6-10 KT DURING
THE DAY...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE FONT IN THE AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.
SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 3 FEET IN A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES...WITH ANY
SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA
HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AS DOES THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. LATE IN THE
PERIOD A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10
KT WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/TRA






000
FXUS62 KILM 311034
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
633 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SYNOPTIC
IMPULSES DEFLECTED AWAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +18C THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S FROM MARION AND FLORENCE WESTWARD INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY.
ONSHORE WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
(COLUMN PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE ONLY 1.5 INCHES) VERY RICH MOISTURE
EXISTS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S THIS MORNING WILL FORTUNATELY MIX DOWN TO NEAR 70 THIS AFTERNOON
INLAND...BUT THAT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
100-103 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY
ALSO FUEL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THIS COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...PROBABLY BECOMING LESSER IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MIXES DOWNWARD. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT...
VIRTUALLY ALL EAST OF I-95 AND HIGHEST IN A STRIPE ACROSS LELAND TO
BURGAW AS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED BY HOURLY HRRR MODEL RUNS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

ANY LINGERING DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE AWAY THIS
EVENING... WITH ONLY A LITTLE PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
LOCALES...A FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A FLAT
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUSH TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE REGION MON
AND TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND WEST SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN MEANS LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT WILL BE
PRESENT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL PUSH ML CAPE VALUES TO 1K-2K J/KG FOR MON AND OVER 2K
J/KG ON TUE. CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP BUT ONCE
SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH TAKE SHAPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD START POPPING UP. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POP FOR EACH AFTERNOON
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ON TUE GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAPE
VALUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ALONG WITH
ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND MAKE A RUN TO
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO STALL AND WASH
OUT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
PATTERNS ARE NOT ONES THAT GENERALLY SUPPORT FRONTS MOVING INTO AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2K J/KG FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL DEFINED. TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
NEAR CLIMO PWATS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
SUGGEST POP WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...STILL EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO. HAVE BACKED OFF
THE FOG A BIT GIVEN THE INCREASING DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING INTO OUR
AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT TEMPO IFR VSBYS INLAND...BUT MVFR SEEMS
MORE LIKELY ATTM. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
SKIRTING THE COAST THIS MORNING...SO WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR
KILM/KCRE/KMYR. THE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 6-10 KT DURING
THE DAY...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE FONT IN THE AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.
SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 3 FEET IN A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES...WITH ANY
SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA
HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AS DOES THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. LATE IN THE
PERIOD A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10
KT WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/TRA







000
FXUS62 KILM 310711
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
311 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SYNOPTIC IMPULSES
DEFLECTED AWAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
+18C THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
90S FROM MARION AND FLORENCE WESTWARD INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY.
ONSHORE WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
(COLUMN PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE ONLY 1.5 INCHES) VERY RICH MOISTURE
EXISTS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S THIS MORNING WILL FORTUNATELY MIX DOWN TO NEAR 70 THIS AFTERNOON
INLAND...BUT THAT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
100-103 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY
ALSO FUEL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THIS COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...PROBABLY BECOMING LESSER IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MIXES DOWNWARD. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT...
VIRTUALLY ALL EAST OF I-95.

ANY LINGERING DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE AWAY THIS
EVENING... WITH ONLY A LITTLE PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
LOCALES...A FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A FLAT
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUSH TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE REGION MON
AND TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND WEST SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN MEANS LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT WILL BE
PRESENT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL PUSH ML CAPE VALUES TO 1K-2K J/KG FOR MON AND OVER 2K
J/KG ON TUE. CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP BUT ONCE
SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH TAKE SHAPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD START POPPING UP. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POP FOR EACH AFTERNOON
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ON TUE GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAPE
VALUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ALONG WITH
ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND MAKE A RUN TO
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO STALL AND WASH
OUT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
PATTERNS ARE NOT ONES THAT GENERALLY SUPPORT FRONTS MOVING INTO AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2K J/KG FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL DEFINED. TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
NEAR CLIMO PWATS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
SUGGEST POP WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...STILL EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO. HAVE BACKED OFF
THE FOG A BIT GIVEN THE INCREASING DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING INTO OUR
AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT TEMPO IFR VSBYS INLAND...BUT MVFR SEEMS
MORE LIKELY ATTM. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
SKIRTING THE COAST THIS MORNING...SO WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR
KILM/KCRE/KMYR. THE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 6-10 KT DURING
THE DAY...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE FONT IN THE AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WIND TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY
AROUND 2 FEET MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 3 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES...WITH ANY SCATTERED
MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA
HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AS DOES THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. LATE IN THE
PERIOD A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10
KT WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/TRA







000
FXUS62 KILM 310711
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
311 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SYNOPTIC IMPULSES
DEFLECTED AWAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
+18C THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
90S FROM MARION AND FLORENCE WESTWARD INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY.
ONSHORE WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
(COLUMN PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE ONLY 1.5 INCHES) VERY RICH MOISTURE
EXISTS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S THIS MORNING WILL FORTUNATELY MIX DOWN TO NEAR 70 THIS AFTERNOON
INLAND...BUT THAT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
100-103 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY
ALSO FUEL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THIS COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...PROBABLY BECOMING LESSER IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MIXES DOWNWARD. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT...
VIRTUALLY ALL EAST OF I-95.

ANY LINGERING DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE AWAY THIS
EVENING... WITH ONLY A LITTLE PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
LOCALES...A FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A FLAT
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUSH TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE REGION MON
AND TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND WEST SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN MEANS LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT WILL BE
PRESENT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL PUSH ML CAPE VALUES TO 1K-2K J/KG FOR MON AND OVER 2K
J/KG ON TUE. CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP BUT ONCE
SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH TAKE SHAPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD START POPPING UP. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POP FOR EACH AFTERNOON
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ON TUE GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAPE
VALUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ALONG WITH
ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND MAKE A RUN TO
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO STALL AND WASH
OUT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
PATTERNS ARE NOT ONES THAT GENERALLY SUPPORT FRONTS MOVING INTO AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2K J/KG FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL DEFINED. TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
NEAR CLIMO PWATS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
SUGGEST POP WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...STILL EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO. HAVE BACKED OFF
THE FOG A BIT GIVEN THE INCREASING DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING INTO OUR
AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT TEMPO IFR VSBYS INLAND...BUT MVFR SEEMS
MORE LIKELY ATTM. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
SKIRTING THE COAST THIS MORNING...SO WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR
KILM/KCRE/KMYR. THE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 6-10 KT DURING
THE DAY...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE FONT IN THE AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WIND TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY
AROUND 2 FEET MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 3 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES...WITH ANY SCATTERED
MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA
HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AS DOES THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. LATE IN THE
PERIOD A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10
KT WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/TRA








000
FXUS62 KILM 310500
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1259 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...

MUCH LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP OFFSHORE. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING
THESE SHOWERS FLIRTING WITH THE IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW HANOVER
COUNTY.

WILL INCLUDE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
MIXING WILL BE LEAST. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...EXPECT A FOG AND
STRATUS MIX LATE. HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND WILL BE MAINLY THIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT TO CLAM WINDS AND ONLY A HINT OF A WEAK NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE LOWS OF SAT...WHICH WILL PUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR AND VIGILANT WITH
REGARD TO KEEPING RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU-OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOME FLATTENING DOES OCCUR DURING LATE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SUCCESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W TROFS PUSH
BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S....WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THEM REMAINING NORTH OF THE FA.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH TIME...THEY DO PARTIALLY ERODE THE MID-UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUE.

AT THE SFC...THE STALLED E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC...WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 1025+ WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH...WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE WX FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PIEDMONT
TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT BY
LABOR DAY AND BEYOND.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE AND
PREVALENT PIEDMONT TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. MODELS DO INDICATE A BETTER DEFINED
PIEDMONT TROF BY MONDAY AND THUS THE OVERALL POP SCHEME WILL BE
ADVERTISED WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE MONDAY OVER SUNDAY. LATEST
SREF ALSO INDICATE A HIGHER POP FOR MONDAY OVER TUE. SEE NO REASON
TO GO AGAINST THIS LAYOUT OF POPS. AS FOR DAILY MAX AND MIN
TEMPS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS BETTER
PERFORMANCE THE PAST 5 DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER AVBL MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE SHORTWAVES RIDE BY IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DRIVE A FEW COLD FRONTS EAST BUT TRAILING
END SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL AREA. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY MOVE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE WINDS OR PRODUCE SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE
IN ALOFT. OVERALL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINTAINING A WARM HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT LOCALIZED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH FOCUS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPS UP ABOVE 70
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH CLOSE
TO 90 ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...STILL EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO. HAVE BACKED OFF
THE FOG A BIT GIVEN THE INCREASING DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING INTO OUR
AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT TEMPO IFR VSBYS INLAND...BUT MVFR SEEMS
MORE LIKELY ATTM. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
SKIRTING THE COAST THIS MORNING...SO WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR
KILM/KCRE/KMYR. THE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 6-10 KT DURING
THE DAY...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE FONT IN THE AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...TWO MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY MORNING NEAR-TERM UPDATE. THE FIRST WAS TO
TRIM BACK SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST BUOY DATA SHOWING
NOTHING HIGHER THAN 2 FEET NEAR OR OFFSHORE. THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO
INDICATE IN THE HIGH-RESOLUTION GRIDDED FORECAST A WEAK LANDBREEZE
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
NEAR THE BEACHES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...UP TO AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN
NEAR 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN FOR BOTH SUNDAY
AND LABOR DAY ILLUSTRATE THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS
POSITIONING WILL RESULT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION
ACROSS THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WSW LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE SFC PG WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN-SOME ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS INITIALLY AROUND 10 KT AT
THE START...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT OR POSSIBLY A SOLID 15 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A DECENT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL SETUP EACH AFTN AND EVENG...AFFECTING THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST WITH HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE EACH
DAY...BUT MORE-SO DURING MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT DUE TO SOLID
SYNOPTIC WINDS AROUND 15 KT. A SOLID 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
EXHIBITING 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS...WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT AS SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE DRIVEN WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...LOOK FOR
AN INCREASE TO THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES TO COMBINE WITH THE
GROUND SWELL AND PRODUCE THOSE 4 FOOTERS BY LATE IN THIS SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP EACH AFTN. WINDS MAY
LIGHTEN FURTHER TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY THURS WITH A FURTHER DROP
IN SEAS DOWN TO 2 FT OR LESS

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/TRA






000
FXUS62 KILM 310500
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1259 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...

MUCH LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP OFFSHORE. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING
THESE SHOWERS FLIRTING WITH THE IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW HANOVER
COUNTY.

WILL INCLUDE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
MIXING WILL BE LEAST. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...EXPECT A FOG AND
STRATUS MIX LATE. HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND WILL BE MAINLY THIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT TO CLAM WINDS AND ONLY A HINT OF A WEAK NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE LOWS OF SAT...WHICH WILL PUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR AND VIGILANT WITH
REGARD TO KEEPING RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU-OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOME FLATTENING DOES OCCUR DURING LATE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SUCCESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W TROFS PUSH
BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S....WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THEM REMAINING NORTH OF THE FA.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH TIME...THEY DO PARTIALLY ERODE THE MID-UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUE.

AT THE SFC...THE STALLED E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC...WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 1025+ WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH...WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE WX FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PIEDMONT
TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT BY
LABOR DAY AND BEYOND.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE AND
PREVALENT PIEDMONT TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. MODELS DO INDICATE A BETTER DEFINED
PIEDMONT TROF BY MONDAY AND THUS THE OVERALL POP SCHEME WILL BE
ADVERTISED WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE MONDAY OVER SUNDAY. LATEST
SREF ALSO INDICATE A HIGHER POP FOR MONDAY OVER TUE. SEE NO REASON
TO GO AGAINST THIS LAYOUT OF POPS. AS FOR DAILY MAX AND MIN
TEMPS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS BETTER
PERFORMANCE THE PAST 5 DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER AVBL MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE SHORTWAVES RIDE BY IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DRIVE A FEW COLD FRONTS EAST BUT TRAILING
END SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL AREA. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY MOVE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE WINDS OR PRODUCE SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE
IN ALOFT. OVERALL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINTAINING A WARM HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT LOCALIZED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH FOCUS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPS UP ABOVE 70
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH CLOSE
TO 90 ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...STILL EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO. HAVE BACKED OFF
THE FOG A BIT GIVEN THE INCREASING DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING INTO OUR
AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT TEMPO IFR VSBYS INLAND...BUT MVFR SEEMS
MORE LIKELY ATTM. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
SKIRTING THE COAST THIS MORNING...SO WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR
KILM/KCRE/KMYR. THE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 6-10 KT DURING
THE DAY...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE FONT IN THE AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...TWO MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY MORNING NEAR-TERM UPDATE. THE FIRST WAS TO
TRIM BACK SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST BUOY DATA SHOWING
NOTHING HIGHER THAN 2 FEET NEAR OR OFFSHORE. THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO
INDICATE IN THE HIGH-RESOLUTION GRIDDED FORECAST A WEAK LANDBREEZE
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
NEAR THE BEACHES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...UP TO AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN
NEAR 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN FOR BOTH SUNDAY
AND LABOR DAY ILLUSTRATE THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS
POSITIONING WILL RESULT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION
ACROSS THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WSW LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE SFC PG WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN-SOME ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS INITIALLY AROUND 10 KT AT
THE START...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT OR POSSIBLY A SOLID 15 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A DECENT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL SETUP EACH AFTN AND EVENG...AFFECTING THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST WITH HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE EACH
DAY...BUT MORE-SO DURING MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT DUE TO SOLID
SYNOPTIC WINDS AROUND 15 KT. A SOLID 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
EXHIBITING 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS...WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT AS SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE DRIVEN WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...LOOK FOR
AN INCREASE TO THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES TO COMBINE WITH THE
GROUND SWELL AND PRODUCE THOSE 4 FOOTERS BY LATE IN THIS SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP EACH AFTN. WINDS MAY
LIGHTEN FURTHER TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY THURS WITH A FURTHER DROP
IN SEAS DOWN TO 2 FT OR LESS

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/TRA







000
FXUS62 KILM 310245
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1045 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...MUCH LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE. SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE SHOWERS FLIRTING WITH THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE
HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW HANOVER COUNTY.

WILL INCLUDE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
MIXING WILL BE LEAST. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...EXPECT A FOG AND
STRATUS MIX LATE. HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND WILL BE MAINLY THIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT TO CLAM WINDS AND ONLY A HINT OF A WEAK NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE LOWS OF SAT...WHICH WILL PUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR AND VIGILANT WITH
REGARD TO KEEPING RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU-OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOME FLATTENING DOES OCCUR DURING LATE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SUCCESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W TROFS PUSH
BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S....WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THEM REMAINING NORTH OF THE FA.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH TIME...THEY DO PARTIALLY ERODE THE MID-UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUE.

AT THE SFC...THE STALLED E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC...WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 1025+ WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH...WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE WX FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PIEDMONT
TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT BY
LABOR DAY AND BEYOND.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE AND
PREVALENT PIEDMONT TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. MODELS DO INDICATE A BETTER DEFINED
PIEDMONT TROF BY MONDAY AND THUS THE OVERALL POP SCHEME WILL BE
ADVERTISED WITH A SLIGHTLY HIER CHANCE MONDAY OVER SUNDAY. LATEST
SREF ALSO INDICATE A HIER POP FOR MONDAY OVER TUE. SEE NO REASON
TO GO AGAINST THIS LAYOUT OF POPS. AS FOR DAILY MAX AND MIN
TEMPS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS BETTER
PERFORMANCE THE PAST 5 DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER AVBL MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE SHORTWAVES RIDE BY IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DRIVE A FEW COLD FRONTS EAST BUT TRAILING
END SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL AREA. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY MOVE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE WINDS OR PRODUCE SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE
IN ALOFT. OVERALL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINTAINING A WARM HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT LOCALIZED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH FOCUS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPS UP ABOVE 70
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH CLOSE
TO 90 ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
S-SE WINDS AOB 8 KT. AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES CALM TONIGHT...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS AREAS OF BR/STRATUS
DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KLBT AND
KFLO FROM AROUND 09-13Z...WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR VSBYS AS WELL. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN VSBYS ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT 1-2KFT CLOUDS TO MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH
EARLY SUN MORNING...ALONG WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THE
GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISO SHRA ALONG THE
COAST SUN MORNING. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. MVFR CIGS
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT VFR
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 6-10 KT
DURING THE DAY...HIGHEST AT THE COASTAL SITES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...UP TO
AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN FOR BOTH SUNDAY
AND LABOR DAY ILLUSTRATE THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS
POSITIONING WILL RESULT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION
ACROSS THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WSW LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE SFC PG WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN-SOME ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS INITIALLY AROUND 10 KT AT
THE START...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT OR POSSIBLY A SOLID 15 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A DECENT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL SETUP EACH AFTN AND EVENG...AFFECTING THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST WITH HIER WIND
SPEEDS.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE EACH
DAY...BUT MORE-SO DURING MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT DUE TO SOLID
SYNOPTIC WINDS AROUND 15 KT. A SOLID 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
EXHIBITING 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS...WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT AS SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE DRIVEN WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...LOOK FOR
AN INCREASE TO THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES TO COMBINE WITH THE
GROUND SWELL AND PRODUCE THOSE 4 FOOTERS BY LATE IN THIS SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP EACH AFTN. WINDS MAY
LIGHTEN FURTHER TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY THURS WITH A FURTHER DROP
IN SEAS DOWN TO 2 FT OR LESS

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 310245
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1045 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...MUCH LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE. SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE SHOWERS FLIRTING WITH THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE
HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW HANOVER COUNTY.

WILL INCLUDE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
MIXING WILL BE LEAST. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...EXPECT A FOG AND
STRATUS MIX LATE. HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND WILL BE MAINLY THIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT TO CLAM WINDS AND ONLY A HINT OF A WEAK NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE LOWS OF SAT...WHICH WILL PUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR AND VIGILANT WITH
REGARD TO KEEPING RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU-OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOME FLATTENING DOES OCCUR DURING LATE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SUCCESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W TROFS PUSH
BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S....WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THEM REMAINING NORTH OF THE FA.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH TIME...THEY DO PARTIALLY ERODE THE MID-UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUE.

AT THE SFC...THE STALLED E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC...WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 1025+ WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH...WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE WX FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PIEDMONT
TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT BY
LABOR DAY AND BEYOND.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE AND
PREVALENT PIEDMONT TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. MODELS DO INDICATE A BETTER DEFINED
PIEDMONT TROF BY MONDAY AND THUS THE OVERALL POP SCHEME WILL BE
ADVERTISED WITH A SLIGHTLY HIER CHANCE MONDAY OVER SUNDAY. LATEST
SREF ALSO INDICATE A HIER POP FOR MONDAY OVER TUE. SEE NO REASON
TO GO AGAINST THIS LAYOUT OF POPS. AS FOR DAILY MAX AND MIN
TEMPS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS BETTER
PERFORMANCE THE PAST 5 DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER AVBL MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE SHORTWAVES RIDE BY IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DRIVE A FEW COLD FRONTS EAST BUT TRAILING
END SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL AREA. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY MOVE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE WINDS OR PRODUCE SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE
IN ALOFT. OVERALL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINTAINING A WARM HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT LOCALIZED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH FOCUS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPS UP ABOVE 70
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH CLOSE
TO 90 ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
S-SE WINDS AOB 8 KT. AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES CALM TONIGHT...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS AREAS OF BR/STRATUS
DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KLBT AND
KFLO FROM AROUND 09-13Z...WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR VSBYS AS WELL. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN VSBYS ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT 1-2KFT CLOUDS TO MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH
EARLY SUN MORNING...ALONG WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THE
GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISO SHRA ALONG THE
COAST SUN MORNING. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. MVFR CIGS
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT VFR
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 6-10 KT
DURING THE DAY...HIGHEST AT THE COASTAL SITES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...UP TO
AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN FOR BOTH SUNDAY
AND LABOR DAY ILLUSTRATE THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS
POSITIONING WILL RESULT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION
ACROSS THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WSW LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE SFC PG WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN-SOME ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS INITIALLY AROUND 10 KT AT
THE START...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT OR POSSIBLY A SOLID 15 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A DECENT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL SETUP EACH AFTN AND EVENG...AFFECTING THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST WITH HIER WIND
SPEEDS.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE EACH
DAY...BUT MORE-SO DURING MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT DUE TO SOLID
SYNOPTIC WINDS AROUND 15 KT. A SOLID 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
EXHIBITING 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS...WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT AS SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE DRIVEN WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...LOOK FOR
AN INCREASE TO THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES TO COMBINE WITH THE
GROUND SWELL AND PRODUCE THOSE 4 FOOTERS BY LATE IN THIS SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP EACH AFTN. WINDS MAY
LIGHTEN FURTHER TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY THURS WITH A FURTHER DROP
IN SEAS DOWN TO 2 FT OR LESS

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 302359
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
758 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ENDED EARLY THIS
EVENING. MUCH LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE COAST OR MOVE ONTO THE LAND MASS
NEAR DAYBREAK. GIVEN THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW HANOVER COUNTY.

WILL INCLUDE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
MIXING WILL BE LEAST. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...EXPECT A FOG AND
STRATUS MIX LATE.

LIGHT TO CLAM WINDS AND ONLY A HINT OF A WEAK NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE LOWS OF SAT...WHICH WILL PUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR AND VIGILANT WITH
REGARD TO KEEPING RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU-OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOME FLATTENING DOES OCCUR DURING LATE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SUCCESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W TROFS PUSH
BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S....WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THEM REMAINING NORTH OF THE FA.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH TIME...THEY DO PARTIALLY ERODE THE MID-UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUE.

AT THE SFC...THE STALLED E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC...WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 1025+ WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH...WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE WX FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PIEDMONT
TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT BY
LABOR DAY AND BEYOND.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE AND
PREVALENT PIEDMONT TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. MODELS DO INDICATE A BETTER DEFINED
PIEDMONT TROF BY MONDAY AND THUS THE OVERALL POP SCHEME WILL BE
ADVERTISED WITH A SLIGHTLY HIER CHANCE MONDAY OVER SUNDAY. LATEST
SREF ALSO INDICATE A HIER POP FOR MONDAY OVER TUE. SEE NO REASON
TO GO AGAINST THIS LAYOUT OF POPS. AS FOR DAILY MAX AND MIN
TEMPS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS BETTER
PERFORMANCE THE PAST 5 DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER AVBL MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE SHORTWAVES RIDE BY IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DRIVE A FEW COLD FRONTS EAST BUT TRAILING
END SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL AREA. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY MOVE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE WINDS OR PRODUCE SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE
IN ALOFT. OVERALL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINTAINING A WARM HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT LOCALIZED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH FOCUS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPS UP ABOVE 70
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH CLOSE
TO 90 ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
S-SE WINDS AOB 8 KT. AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES CALM TONIGHT...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS AREAS OF BR/STRATUS
DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KLBT AND
KFLO FROM AROUND 09-13Z...WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR VSBYS AS WELL. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN VSBYS ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT 1-2KFT CLOUDS TO MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH
EARLY SUN MORNING...ALONG WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THE
GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISO SHRA ALONG THE
COAST SUN MORNING. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. MVFR CIGS
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT VFR
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 6-10 KT
DURING THE DAY...HIGHEST AT THE COASTAL SITES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...UP TO AROUND 10
KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN FOR BOTH SUNDAY
AND LABOR DAY ILLUSTRATE THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS
POSITIONING WILL RESULT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION
ACROSS THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WSW LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE SFC PG WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN-SOME ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS INITIALLY AROUND 10 KT AT
THE START...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT OR POSSIBLY A SOLID 15 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A DECENT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL SETUP EACH AFTN AND EVENG...AFFECTING THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST WITH HIER WIND
SPEEDS.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE EACH
DAY...BUT MORE-SO DURING MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT DUE TO SOLID
SYNOPTIC WINDS AROUND 15 KT. A SOLID 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
EXHIBITING 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS...WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT AS SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE DRIVEN WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...LOOK FOR
AN INCREASE TO THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES TO COMBINE WITH THE
GROUND SWELL AND PRODUCE THOSE 4 FOOTERS BY LATE IN THIS SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP EACH AFTN. WINDS MAY
LIGHTEN FURTHER TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY THURS WITH A FURTHER DROP
IN SEAS DOWN TO 2 FT OR LESS

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 302359
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
758 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ENDED EARLY THIS
EVENING. MUCH LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE COAST OR MOVE ONTO THE LAND MASS
NEAR DAYBREAK. GIVEN THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW HANOVER COUNTY.

WILL INCLUDE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
MIXING WILL BE LEAST. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...EXPECT A FOG AND
STRATUS MIX LATE.

LIGHT TO CLAM WINDS AND ONLY A HINT OF A WEAK NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE LOWS OF SAT...WHICH WILL PUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR AND VIGILANT WITH
REGARD TO KEEPING RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU-OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOME FLATTENING DOES OCCUR DURING LATE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SUCCESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W TROFS PUSH
BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S....WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THEM REMAINING NORTH OF THE FA.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH TIME...THEY DO PARTIALLY ERODE THE MID-UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUE.

AT THE SFC...THE STALLED E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC...WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 1025+ WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH...WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE WX FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PIEDMONT
TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT BY
LABOR DAY AND BEYOND.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE AND
PREVALENT PIEDMONT TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. MODELS DO INDICATE A BETTER DEFINED
PIEDMONT TROF BY MONDAY AND THUS THE OVERALL POP SCHEME WILL BE
ADVERTISED WITH A SLIGHTLY HIER CHANCE MONDAY OVER SUNDAY. LATEST
SREF ALSO INDICATE A HIER POP FOR MONDAY OVER TUE. SEE NO REASON
TO GO AGAINST THIS LAYOUT OF POPS. AS FOR DAILY MAX AND MIN
TEMPS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS BETTER
PERFORMANCE THE PAST 5 DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER AVBL MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE SHORTWAVES RIDE BY IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DRIVE A FEW COLD FRONTS EAST BUT TRAILING
END SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL AREA. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY MOVE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE WINDS OR PRODUCE SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE
IN ALOFT. OVERALL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINTAINING A WARM HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT LOCALIZED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH FOCUS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPS UP ABOVE 70
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH CLOSE
TO 90 ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
S-SE WINDS AOB 8 KT. AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES CALM TONIGHT...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS AREAS OF BR/STRATUS
DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KLBT AND
KFLO FROM AROUND 09-13Z...WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR VSBYS AS WELL. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN VSBYS ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT 1-2KFT CLOUDS TO MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH
EARLY SUN MORNING...ALONG WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THE
GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISO SHRA ALONG THE
COAST SUN MORNING. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. MVFR CIGS
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT VFR
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 6-10 KT
DURING THE DAY...HIGHEST AT THE COASTAL SITES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...UP TO AROUND 10
KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN FOR BOTH SUNDAY
AND LABOR DAY ILLUSTRATE THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS
POSITIONING WILL RESULT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION
ACROSS THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WSW LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE SFC PG WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN-SOME ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS INITIALLY AROUND 10 KT AT
THE START...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT OR POSSIBLY A SOLID 15 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A DECENT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL SETUP EACH AFTN AND EVENG...AFFECTING THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST WITH HIER WIND
SPEEDS.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE EACH
DAY...BUT MORE-SO DURING MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT DUE TO SOLID
SYNOPTIC WINDS AROUND 15 KT. A SOLID 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
EXHIBITING 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS...WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT AS SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE DRIVEN WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...LOOK FOR
AN INCREASE TO THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES TO COMBINE WITH THE
GROUND SWELL AND PRODUCE THOSE 4 FOOTERS BY LATE IN THIS SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP EACH AFTN. WINDS MAY
LIGHTEN FURTHER TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY THURS WITH A FURTHER DROP
IN SEAS DOWN TO 2 FT OR LESS

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 302323
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
723 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT IS LIKELY TO STALL BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER OUR NC
COUNTIES...CONTINUES TO FORM AND PUSH NW WITH THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. SOME ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT...BUT IT IS LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED.

A NEAR-TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PROVIDING A
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH ISOLATED DIURNALLY-BASED CONVECTION
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. A STALLED AND
BARELY-DISCERNIBLE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH IS IN THE PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT. THIS BOUNDARY IS A NON-PLAYER AS FAR AS WEATHER GOES
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT AREAS TO OUR NORTH MAY SEE ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE
PRESENT PATTERN OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ABOVE ABOUT 800 MB
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEPTH AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION. ACTIVITY WILL
FADE WITH THE SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES AND THE MID 70S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR AND VIGILANT WITH
REGARD TO KEEPING RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU-OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOME FLATTENING DOES OCCUR DURING LATE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SUCCESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W TROFS PUSH
BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S....WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THEM REMAINING NORTH OF THE FA.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH TIME...THEY DO PARTIALLY ERODE THE MID-UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUE.

AT THE SFC...THE STALLED E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC...WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 1025+ WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH...WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE WX FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PIEDMONT
TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT BY
LABOR DAY AND BEYOND.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE AND
PREVALENT PIEDMONT TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. MODELS DO INDICATE A BETTER DEFINED
PIEDMONT TROF BY MONDAY AND THUS THE OVERALL POP SCHEME WILL BE
ADVERTISED WITH A SLIGHTLY HIER CHANCE MONDAY OVER SUNDAY. LATEST
SREF ALSO INDICATE A HIER POP FOR MONDAY OVER TUE. SEE NO REASON
TO GO AGAINST THIS LAYOUT OF POPS. AS FOR DAILY MAX AND MIN
TEMPS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS BETTER
PERFORMANCE THE PAST 5 DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER AVBL MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE SHORTWAVES RIDE BY IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DRIVE A FEW COLD FRONTS EAST BUT TRAILING
END SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL AREA. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY MOVE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE WINDS OR PRODUCE SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE
IN ALOFT. OVERALL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINTAINING A WARM HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT LOCALIZED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH FOCUS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPS UP ABOVE 70
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH CLOSE
TO 90 ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
S-SE WINDS AOB 8 KT. AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES CALM TONIGHT...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS AREAS OF BR/STRATUS
DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KLBT AND
KFLO FROM AROUND 09-13Z...WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR VSBYS AS WELL. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN VSBYS ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT 1-2KFT CLOUDS TO MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH
EARLY SUN MORNING...ALONG WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THE
GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISO SHRA ALONG THE
COAST SUN MORNING. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. MVFR CIGS
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT VFR
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 6-10 KT
DURING THE DAY...HIGHEST AT THE COASTAL SITES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY S TO SWLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FOOT HEIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN FOR BOTH SUNDAY
AND LABOR DAY ILLUSTRATE THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS
POSITIONING WILL RESULT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION
ACROSS THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WSW LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE SFC PG WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN-SOME ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS INITIALLY AROUND 10 KT AT
THE START...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT OR POSSIBLY A SOLID 15 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A DECENT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL SETUP EACH AFTN AND EVENG...AFFECTING THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST WITH HIER WIND
SPEEDS.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE EACH
DAY...BUT MORE-SO DURING MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT DUE TO SOLID
SYNOPTIC WINDS AROUND 15 KT. A SOLID 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
EXHIBITING 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS...WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT AS SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE DRIVEN WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...LOOK FOR
AN INCREASE TO THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES TO COMBINE WITH THE
GROUND SWELL AND PRODUCE THOSE 4 FOOTERS BY LATE IN THIS SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP EACH AFTN. WINDS MAY
LIGHTEN FURTHER TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY THURS WITH A FURTHER DROP
IN SEAS DOWN TO 2 FT OR LESS

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH/TRA
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR









000
FXUS62 KILM 302323
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
723 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT IS LIKELY TO STALL BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER OUR NC
COUNTIES...CONTINUES TO FORM AND PUSH NW WITH THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. SOME ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT...BUT IT IS LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED.

A NEAR-TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PROVIDING A
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH ISOLATED DIURNALLY-BASED CONVECTION
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. A STALLED AND
BARELY-DISCERNIBLE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH IS IN THE PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT. THIS BOUNDARY IS A NON-PLAYER AS FAR AS WEATHER GOES
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT AREAS TO OUR NORTH MAY SEE ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE
PRESENT PATTERN OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ABOVE ABOUT 800 MB
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEPTH AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION. ACTIVITY WILL
FADE WITH THE SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES AND THE MID 70S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR AND VIGILANT WITH
REGARD TO KEEPING RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU-OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOME FLATTENING DOES OCCUR DURING LATE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SUCCESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W TROFS PUSH
BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S....WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THEM REMAINING NORTH OF THE FA.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH TIME...THEY DO PARTIALLY ERODE THE MID-UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUE.

AT THE SFC...THE STALLED E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC...WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 1025+ WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH...WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE WX FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PIEDMONT
TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT BY
LABOR DAY AND BEYOND.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE AND
PREVALENT PIEDMONT TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. MODELS DO INDICATE A BETTER DEFINED
PIEDMONT TROF BY MONDAY AND THUS THE OVERALL POP SCHEME WILL BE
ADVERTISED WITH A SLIGHTLY HIER CHANCE MONDAY OVER SUNDAY. LATEST
SREF ALSO INDICATE A HIER POP FOR MONDAY OVER TUE. SEE NO REASON
TO GO AGAINST THIS LAYOUT OF POPS. AS FOR DAILY MAX AND MIN
TEMPS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS BETTER
PERFORMANCE THE PAST 5 DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER AVBL MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE SHORTWAVES RIDE BY IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DRIVE A FEW COLD FRONTS EAST BUT TRAILING
END SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL AREA. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY MOVE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE WINDS OR PRODUCE SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE
IN ALOFT. OVERALL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINTAINING A WARM HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT LOCALIZED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH FOCUS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPS UP ABOVE 70
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH CLOSE
TO 90 ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
S-SE WINDS AOB 8 KT. AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES CALM TONIGHT...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS AREAS OF BR/STRATUS
DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KLBT AND
KFLO FROM AROUND 09-13Z...WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR VSBYS AS WELL. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN VSBYS ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT 1-2KFT CLOUDS TO MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH
EARLY SUN MORNING...ALONG WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THE
GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISO SHRA ALONG THE
COAST SUN MORNING. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. MVFR CIGS
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT VFR
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 6-10 KT
DURING THE DAY...HIGHEST AT THE COASTAL SITES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY S TO SWLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FOOT HEIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN FOR BOTH SUNDAY
AND LABOR DAY ILLUSTRATE THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS
POSITIONING WILL RESULT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION
ACROSS THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WSW LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE SFC PG WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN-SOME ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS INITIALLY AROUND 10 KT AT
THE START...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT OR POSSIBLY A SOLID 15 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A DECENT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL SETUP EACH AFTN AND EVENG...AFFECTING THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST WITH HIER WIND
SPEEDS.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE EACH
DAY...BUT MORE-SO DURING MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT DUE TO SOLID
SYNOPTIC WINDS AROUND 15 KT. A SOLID 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
EXHIBITING 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS...WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT AS SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE DRIVEN WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...LOOK FOR
AN INCREASE TO THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES TO COMBINE WITH THE
GROUND SWELL AND PRODUCE THOSE 4 FOOTERS BY LATE IN THIS SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP EACH AFTN. WINDS MAY
LIGHTEN FURTHER TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY THURS WITH A FURTHER DROP
IN SEAS DOWN TO 2 FT OR LESS

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH/TRA
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR








000
FXUS62 KILM 302015
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
415 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT IS LIKELY TO STALL BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER OUR NC
COUNTIES...CONTINUES TO FORM AND PUSH NW WITH THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. SOME ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT...BUT IT IS LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED.

A NEAR-TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PROVIDING A
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH ISOLATED DIURNALLY-BASED CONVECTION
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. A STALLED AND
BARELY-DISCERNIBLE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH IS IN THE PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT. THIS BOUNDARY IS A NON-PLAYER AS FAR AS WEATHER GOES
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT AREAS TO OUR NORTH MAY SEE ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE
PRESENT PATTERN OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ABOVE ABOUT 800 MB
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEPTH AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION. ACTIVITY WILL
FADE WITH THE SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES AND THE MID 70S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR AND VIGILANT WITH
REGARD TO KEEPING RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU-OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOME FLATTENING DOES OCCUR DURING LATE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SUCCESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W TROFS PUSH
BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S....WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THEM REMAINING NORTH OF THE FA.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH TIME...THEY DO PARTIALLY ERODE THE MID-UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUE.

AT THE SFC...THE STALLED E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC...WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 1025+ WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH...WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE WX FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PIEDMONT
TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT BY
LABOR DAY AND BEYOND.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE AND
PREVALENT PIEDMONT TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. MODELS DO INDICATE A BETTER DEFINED
PIEDMONT TROF BY MONDAY AND THUS THE OVERALL POP SCHEME WILL BE
ADVERTISED WITH A SLIGHTLY HIER CHANCE MONDAY OVER SUNDAY. LATEST
SREF ALSO INDICATE A HIER POP FOR MONDAY OVER TUE. SEE NO REASON
TO GO AGAINST THIS LAYOUT OF POPS. AS FOR DAILY MAX AND MIN
TEMPS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS BETTER
PERFORMANCE THE PAST 5 DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER AVBL MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE SHORTWAVES RIDE BY IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DRIVE A FEW COLD FRONTS EAST BUT TRAILING
END SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL AREA. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY MOVE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE WINDS OR PRODUCE SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE
IN ALOFT. OVERALL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINTAINING A WARM HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT LOCALIZED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH FOCUS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPS UP ABOVE 70
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH CLOSE
TO 90 ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT KILM/KLBT THROUGH 20Z
OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. VCSH POSSIBLE
AT KLBT/KCRE/KMYR THROUGH 21Z WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASING
AFTERWARD.

VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INLAND TERMINALS WITH
IFR LIKELY. MVFR WILL DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL AGAIN MOVE ONSHORE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. VFR
EXPECTED 14-15Z WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS COASTAL TERMINALS DURING
THE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC IFR/MVFR SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
SUNDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY S TO SWLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FOOT HEIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN FOR BOTH SUNDAY
AND LABOR DAY ILLUSTRATE THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS
POSITIONING WILL RESULT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION
ACROSS THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WSW LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE SFC PG WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN-SOME ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS INITIALLY AROUND 10 KT AT
THE START...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT OR POSSIBLY A SOLID 15 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A DECENT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL SETUP EACH AFTN AND EVENG...AFFECTING THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST WITH HIER WIND
SPEEDS.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE EACH
DAY...BUT MORE-SO DURING MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT DUE TO SOLID
SYNOPTIC WINDS AROUND 15 KT. A SOLID 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
EXHIBITING 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS...WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT AS SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE DRIVEN WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...LOOK FOR
AN INCREASE TO THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES TO COMBINE WITH THE
GROUND SWELL AND PRODUCE THOSE 4 FOOTERS BY LATE IN THIS SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP EACH AFTN. WINDS MAY
LIGHTEN FURTHER TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY THURS WITH A FURTHER DROP
IN SEAS DOWN TO 2 FT OR LESS

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH/TRA
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 302015
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
415 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT IS LIKELY TO STALL BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER OUR NC
COUNTIES...CONTINUES TO FORM AND PUSH NW WITH THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. SOME ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT...BUT IT IS LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED.

A NEAR-TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PROVIDING A
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH ISOLATED DIURNALLY-BASED CONVECTION
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. A STALLED AND
BARELY-DISCERNIBLE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH IS IN THE PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT. THIS BOUNDARY IS A NON-PLAYER AS FAR AS WEATHER GOES
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT AREAS TO OUR NORTH MAY SEE ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE
PRESENT PATTERN OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ABOVE ABOUT 800 MB
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEPTH AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION. ACTIVITY WILL
FADE WITH THE SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES AND THE MID 70S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR AND VIGILANT WITH
REGARD TO KEEPING RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU-OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOME FLATTENING DOES OCCUR DURING LATE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SUCCESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W TROFS PUSH
BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S....WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THEM REMAINING NORTH OF THE FA.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH TIME...THEY DO PARTIALLY ERODE THE MID-UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUE.

AT THE SFC...THE STALLED E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC...WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 1025+ WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH...WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE WX FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PIEDMONT
TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT BY
LABOR DAY AND BEYOND.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE AND
PREVALENT PIEDMONT TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. MODELS DO INDICATE A BETTER DEFINED
PIEDMONT TROF BY MONDAY AND THUS THE OVERALL POP SCHEME WILL BE
ADVERTISED WITH A SLIGHTLY HIER CHANCE MONDAY OVER SUNDAY. LATEST
SREF ALSO INDICATE A HIER POP FOR MONDAY OVER TUE. SEE NO REASON
TO GO AGAINST THIS LAYOUT OF POPS. AS FOR DAILY MAX AND MIN
TEMPS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS BETTER
PERFORMANCE THE PAST 5 DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER AVBL MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE SHORTWAVES RIDE BY IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DRIVE A FEW COLD FRONTS EAST BUT TRAILING
END SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL AREA. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY MOVE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE WINDS OR PRODUCE SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE
IN ALOFT. OVERALL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINTAINING A WARM HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT LOCALIZED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH FOCUS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPS UP ABOVE 70
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH CLOSE
TO 90 ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT KILM/KLBT THROUGH 20Z
OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. VCSH POSSIBLE
AT KLBT/KCRE/KMYR THROUGH 21Z WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASING
AFTERWARD.

VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INLAND TERMINALS WITH
IFR LIKELY. MVFR WILL DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL AGAIN MOVE ONSHORE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. VFR
EXPECTED 14-15Z WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS COASTAL TERMINALS DURING
THE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC IFR/MVFR SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
SUNDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY S TO SWLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FOOT HEIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN FOR BOTH SUNDAY
AND LABOR DAY ILLUSTRATE THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS
POSITIONING WILL RESULT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION
ACROSS THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WSW LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE SFC PG WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN-SOME ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS INITIALLY AROUND 10 KT AT
THE START...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT OR POSSIBLY A SOLID 15 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A DECENT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL SETUP EACH AFTN AND EVENG...AFFECTING THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST WITH HIER WIND
SPEEDS.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE EACH
DAY...BUT MORE-SO DURING MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT DUE TO SOLID
SYNOPTIC WINDS AROUND 15 KT. A SOLID 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
EXHIBITING 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS...WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT AS SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE DRIVEN WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...LOOK FOR
AN INCREASE TO THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES TO COMBINE WITH THE
GROUND SWELL AND PRODUCE THOSE 4 FOOTERS BY LATE IN THIS SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP EACH AFTN. WINDS MAY
LIGHTEN FURTHER TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY THURS WITH A FURTHER DROP
IN SEAS DOWN TO 2 FT OR LESS

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH/TRA
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/MRR






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